It is rather stunning to see that Bournemouth has gone unbeaten in six straight matches following the manager change. The three results prior to the change saw the Cherries outscored 16-0 (by Man City, Arsenal & Liverpool) and while the season was still young, relegation looked inevitable. But two wins and four draws have this side, rather shockingly, 12th in the Premier League table!

As for Southampton, they do find themselves in the relegation zone, currently in 18th place after five straight matches without a win. The Saints did earn a point over the weekend, drawing 1-1 with West Ham, but only Bournemouth and Leicester City have worse goal differentials in the league.

Even with recent form being very different for the respective sides here, I still think it’s fair to say these are two of the weaker teams in the Premier League. I’m looking to the Under for Wednesday’s fixture. Is it concerning that Southampton has not kept a clean sheet in 16 consecutive matches, going back to last season? Yes. But the Saints have also scored only twice across their last five matches.

Plus, Bournemouth is dead last in xG among EPL teams, right below Southampton. I just don’t see a lot of goal scoring in this one.

Six times Bournemouth has been held to 1 or 0 goals this season. So coming off two straight two-goal efforts, regression is likely. Southampton has scored 1 or 0 goals in six of their last seven fixtures. Under is the call here. 10* 

The Lakers are obviously a much different team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup. Both will be ready to go Tuesday night in the series opener vs. Golden State. Thus I’m taking the points.

In the 108 regular season games that James and Davis have played together, the Lakers have gone 75-33 straight up, a win percentage of .690. Only the Suns had a win percentage higher than .690 last season.

While James and Davis should be happy to see one another tonight, I don’t know how the Warriors can possibly navigate the situation with Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. Additionally, coach Steve Kerr has openly questioned his own team’s conditioning. Yesterday he was quoted as saying the starters are not ready to play 30+ minutes. That’s troublesome.

We know that the Lakers won’t have Dennis Schroeder and Russell Westbrook may not play either. Still, plus the points, I believe they are the play. A motivated James and Davis should be enough to cover this spread.

The Lakers massively underachieved last season and will be ready to play. Golden State is likely to be more concerned with the pregame ring ceremony and thus expect a flat start from them. 10*

The Phillies have gone 5-1 this postseason, eliminating the Cardinals in two games and the Braves in four. The Padres are 5-2 since the playoffs began, needing three games to eliminate the Mets before shocking the Dodgers in four. Neither club was expected to get this far. So the question is who wins Game 1 of the NLCS?

I like the Phillies tonight, behind Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been excellent this entire season, but especially over the last month where he’s allowed only four runs over his previous five starts. Only one start since the All-Star Break has seen Wheeler give up more than five hits. He’s also allowed only one home run over his last six starts.

Pitching against the Padres back in May, Wheeler went seven innings, allowed only four hits and didn’t give up a run. That was his one and only start against SD this year, but he is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA in his career against them.

Yu Darvish also pitched in that series back in May. He too turned in seven scoreless frames. But then he faced the Phillies again in June and allowed three runs on seven hits. What has me worried about Darvish in this spot is the fact he’s already allowed four home runs in his two postseason starts. He’s very lucky that they were all solo shots and no more runs have been allowed. Darvish has now allowed at least one HR in four consecutive outings. 

I think the Phillies are the better team and have the better starting pitcher in this matchup. So I’ll back them in Game 1. 10*

We’ve reached the end of the first round of the MLS Playoffs with two spots still open in the quarterfinals. The last one goes to either FC Dallas or Minnesota United, who meet Monday night in the Metroplex. I am expecting the home side to move on.

Now it was the road team winning both matches in the regular season series, but the 3-0 win by Dallas at Minnesota on Labor Day Weekend seems more instructive for our purposes here today. Things may not be that one-sided tonight, but Dallas is pretty clearly the better team.

FC Dallas finished the regular season third in the Western Conference with a +11 GD. They surged into the playoffs by winning six of their last seven at home, two of those coming against LAFC and the Philadelphia Union, who are the two top teams in the league.

Minnesota United has a -3 GD for the year and needed to beat Vancouver in the final regular season match just to get into the playoffs. The Loons have recorded just four points since late August, a swoon that coincides with losing defender Bakaye Dibassy. Even more concerning is they’ve lost their last four away matches.

So back the better side (Dallas) here as the visitors (Minnesota) seem a bit lucky to even be in the playoffs. A pretty cheap price all things considered. 9*

A much healthier Chargers team meets a struggling Broncos side on MNF.  Wilson is playing hurt and has not shown well to say the least, stumbling out of week five with an ugly 54 passer rating.  The Broncos are 31st in points scored and 32nd in red zone scoring. They've put up some yards but haven't converted on third downs and have no finish. They are 26th in sacks allowed, including 4 last week.
The Broncos defense is nearly the polar opposite; 4th in points allowed and tops in defending in the red zone.  Their run defense is middle of the pack at 14th in rush yards allowed, and 20th in yds/carry, however that pass defense has been very tough on opposing QBs, allowing an average passer rating of just 78.
The Broncos have not yet faced a top level offense this season, but they will on Monday.  Herbert is just hitting his stride, but the curious thing about the Chargers offense was their run game last week, with a huge jump in rush plays and an astounding yards total.  A balance of run and pass will make the Chargers offense even more potent.  The Chargers have been very successful in protecting Herbert this season, and are tops in sacks allowed.  We will see if they can hold off a tough Denver pass defense with 17 sacks and 51 pressures to date.
The Chargers' main issue is defense; they've given up an average of 27 points a game and are just average defending in the red zone.   They allowed a ton of rushing yards in week 5 against Cleveland, but actually out-rushed the Browns in that game.  Wilson will likely have an easier game as the Chargers aren't huge on QB pressure.
The Broncos may limit the Chargers' offense to some degree, but I don't think they will be able to shut it down. Denver may have a modest improvement on offense against a generous Chargers defense, but the Broncos have a long way to climb back to a respectable level. Injuries are probably more severe on the Broncos side. Of note, the Broncos are just about the worst team in the league for penalties. Take the Chargers, at home, to win and cover.

With the Dodgers and the Braves now out, can the Yankees be the next juggernaut to fail?  The Guardians now have 2 kicks at the cat to win the series and are home in front of a delirious crowd today.   The Yankees' Cole returns on 4 days' rest, off a fine 6 inning 1 run performance in Game one. He has done it all before,  but has pitched past the 6th just once since August, and his ERA in the fifth and sixth innings is over 4.50.  His ERA on the road is a half run worse than in Yankee stadium.  The problem lies post-Cole as the Yankees bullpen is injured, weary and not what we have come to expect this year.  

Quantrill gave up 4 runs over 5 innings in Game one, but he was much better than that down the stretch.  He is 9-0 at home this year, and is a good candidate to bounce back today.  Game one was his first real appearance in the post season, and he can and will be on a shorter leash than Cole, with the Guardians' superlative bullpen behind him. 

The other advantage the Guardians have, beyond relief pitching, is coaching.  There is no one better than Francona in the pressure-filled post season. Boone made some questionable decisions yesterday.

The Bills face the Chiefs at Arrowhead coming in a 2.5 point favorite.  Sure, it is Mahomes vs. Allen, two "pretty good" passers, but defense will decide this game, and on that note the Bills have a huge edge.  Mahomes can maneuver his way out of most situations, but he may have his hands full on Sunday.  A lot of the Chiefs' defense is just being on the field more than the opposition.  While both pass defenses have solid pass pressure stats, the Bills do it with out blitzing much. Looking at other critical pass defense stats the Bills have a huge advantage, but none more explicit that opposing passer rating; the Bills are first with an avg. passer rating of 67, compared to KC's 105.  Buffalo has given up the least points to date, while the Chiefs struggle to 24th.  Rush defense stats for the Chiefs are curious. Nobody runs much against the Chiefs because they are usually playing catch-up. Last week the Raiders put up 155 yards, more than 70 over the Chiefs' average allowed.  The Chiefs are 31st in defending the red zone at this moment.
Home advantage aside, the Bills have known since last year who stands between them and a Super Bowl ring, and have made the critical steps on defense to match up very well against KC.  Take the Bills to win and cover.

The 49ers meet the run-happy Atlanta Falcons at home in week 6.  The Falcons run more than just about anyone and have had some success this season.  They are 4th in rushing yards, 8th in yards/attempt and 4th in rushing first downs.  They'd better be good as it is the only game in town.  The Falcons' pass attack is minimal; 30th in yards and completion %, with a 78 average passer rating.  Mariota has been sacked 12 times, 5 last week alone, with as many picks as TDs to date.  
The 49ers' defense are the Falcons' worst nightmare, with or without Bosa.  They've allowed the least rushing yards and yds/att. Not to mention that they crush pass offenses, are 1st in sack% and hold passers to a 72 rating.  Mariota and the Falcons' offense is likely in for a tough day.
The Falcons middling defense face a very tough 49ers' run game and an improving Garoppolo. He threw for 253 yards, 2 TDs and a 109 rating last week, and now faces an Atlanta pass defense that had no sacks in week 5.  This could be Garoppolo's day to shine.
I am absolutely all in on the 49ers this week.  Run, don't walk,and jump on SF to win and cover.

The Colts and Jaguars managed just 18 points combined on offense in Week Five. The good news is that the defenses allowed a total of just 21. The Colts are the worst team in points scored in the NFL. They are 27th in rushing yards and that was with Taylor playing in half the games. Now with two running backs out and a strong Jags’ run defense (6th in rushing yards, and 4th in yards/carry), the Colts will be relying on Ryan and the passing offense for points and yards. Ryan has been sacked at a 10% rate, has given up far too many interceptions, and the Colts are 31st in the league in fumbles. Ryan also faces a Jaguars’ pass defense that has limited opposing QBs to a 74 passer rating.

The Jags’ semi-rookie quarterback has had a couple of solid performances, but the last two were substandard. He threw for a year-high 286 yards, but poor pass completion % and untimely picks limited his effectiveness. He can’t blame QB pressure, as there really wasn’t much from the Texans. There will be a lot more trouble from the Colts’ defense in Week Six. The Jaguars were absolutely hopeless in the red zone last week.

The Jags’ run game has shown steady improvement and is now a legitimate two pronged threat, however they face a tough Colts’ run defense that is fourth in yards given up and second in yards/attempt. Two strong defenses, key injuries on both sides and lots of question marks in both offenses sounds like a recipe for a low scoring game. Take the Jaguars and the Colts to go under on Sunday.

A top seven finisher last season, West Ham United’s 2022/23 campaign got off to a rather sluggish start. But both a strong showing in the Europa Conference League and back to back Premier League wins seemingly have the Hammers back on track. They come into Sunday level with three other sides at 10 points in the middle of the table.

Meanwhile, Southampton is in trouble. The Saints now find themselves in the relegation zone after four straight losses, three of which were to bottom half sides. They failed to score in three of those matches, including the most recent one, which was an ugly 4-0 defeat at the hands of Manchester United.

It’s four straight wins in all competitions for West Ham, so these are very much two sides trending in opposite directions. Struggles are not new for Southampton as they’ve dropped 11 of 15 league games going back to the end of last year. Even with all three newly promoted sides struggling, it is going to be a challenge for the Saints to remain in the top flight next season.

Additionally, West Ham will be eager to end a winless run against Southampton, which is now at three straight including last year’s FA Cup. The better side at this price is a steal. 

Just to be safe though, let’s play West Ham on the goal line (just so a draw would be a push). 10* 

Going back to 2015, there have been 15 times where a team is 6-0 SU or better and getting points from a team with two or more losses. Those 15 teams have gone just 3-12 straight up. USC qualifies for the situation this week and, based on that history, I’m fading the Trojans in Salt Lake City.

Utah has taken two tough losses, to Florida and UCLA. Both were games where the Utes were favored on the road. At home though, they’ve lost just once in the last 12 tries. This is still a very good football team and obviously one you should respect, based on them being favored here.

USC has played a pretty light schedule so far with the only road games coming at Stanford and Oregon State. They were held to only 17 points and 359 total yards by Oregon State and were probably lucky to win that game. Even last week at the Coliseum, the 30-14 final over Washington State was a tad bit misleading. It was a three-point game deep into the third quarter but Wazzu’s special teams really betrayed them in that game.

Tough to win at Rice-Eccles at night and I just don’t see Utah losing for a third time as a favorite. Turnovers were a real killer against UCLA, but I don’t see that being a problem here. The Utes also have a great secondary, something a team needs to beat USC.

USC is just 3-12 ATS its last 15 games as a road underdog. That's the third worst in the FBS since 2015. Lay the points in this one. 9*

Clemson is #5 in the country while FSU is unranked, but this smells like an outright upset to me. 

Florida State was 4-0 before losing to Wake Forest and NC State the last two weeks. The Seminoles actually owned the edge in yards per play in both games they lost and should have beaten NC State last week. A terrible decision by QB Travis to throw the ball into the end zone, while down two and in field goal range, resulted in an interception and cost the team the game.

Though Clemson is ranked #5 in the country and a perennial power, this doesn’t feel like the same Tigers’ team we saw during all those runs to the College Football Playoff. Remember they needed overtime to win at Wake Forest. It was a one-score game with NC State two weeks ago.

This sets up as a real “fade the public” type game as the majority of bets are on Clemson, but the number has come down (as of Thursday). Regardless of any further line movement, I’m backing the underdog here. 

FSU definitely should have won on the road last week. The chance to end a six-game losing streak to Clemson should have the ‘Noles extra fired up for this Saturday night home game. The defense has been every bit as good as Clemson’s this year while the offense is averaging a full yard per play more than the Tigers. Take the points. 10*

The Big 12’s two remaining unbeatens collide Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth as #15 TCU plays host to #7 Oklahoma State. My view is that the better team is getting points.

Now TCU is playing at home and we have to respect that. But OSU has covered six straight conference road games and beat the Horned Frogs last season by a score of 63-17 (in Stillwater). 

Both teams were involved in close games last week. Oklahoma State ended up beating an aggressive Texas Tech team 41-31 while TCU outlasted Kansas on the road, 38-31. There’s probably going to be a lot of points scored in this one. But look for the Pokes to score more. The TCU defense has been pretty bad when it comes to allowing explosive plays and OSU QB Sanders is completing over 50% of his pass attempts of 20+ yards.

This is a tougher spot for TCU, who goes from playing on the road (where ESPN College Gameday was present) to now playing its first ranked vs. ranked home game in five years. OSU is more accustomed to these games as they were on the cusp of the CFP last year and have averaged nine wins per season over the last decade for head coach Mike Gundy.

I don’t think TCU should be the favorite here, even with homefield advantage. OK State is the better team and has gone 16-2 SU over its last 18 games with the two losses coming by a combined eight points. Gotta take the points here. 10*

The Braves are on the edge of an early exit on the road against the Phillies.  The ageless Charlie Morton starts today, but he has not fared well down the stretch.  The Phillies roughed him up for 6 runs in 4+ innings in late September.  He was luckier but no better against the Mets, allowing 3 runs on 9 hits in another short start.  His road starts have been very poor with an ERA of 5.72.
Syndergaard pitched a single successful inning in relief in game 2.  His season since joining the Phillies has been very average with an ERA in the mid-fours, although he bounced back with 7 innings of shutout ball in a start and a a long relief effort in his last 2 appearances.
The Braves have an edge in offense and relief pitching, but just haven't shown it yet.  The Phillies have the momentum and the crowd, but I can't count the Braves out today.  Syndergaard is not the Thor of old, and Morton has struggled.  I still don't trust the Phillies pen, and they may have to be relied on for multiple innings.  Take the over today. 9*!

How the mighty have fallen! Oklahoma has lost three in a row for the first time since 1998 and they are 0-3 ATS in those three games, missing the spread by a combined 99 points!  Rarely do we see a three-game stretch like that where the oddsmakers got it so wrong.

So it may be surprising to some that OU is favored here over a Kansas team that was unbeaten going into last Saturday. But here me out, who would have ever thought the Sooners would be a single digit favorite in Norman against a team they’ve beaten 17 straight times? Oh, by the way, the Jayhawks just lost their starting QB. 

All of those 17 straight victories have been by double digits. The last seven times these teams have met, Oklahoma has been favored by at least 32 points. 

Now this is a better Kansas team than usual. But losing QB Daniels is a massive blow to their season. The Jayhawks’ defense also isn’t very good, having allowed a total of 148 points the last five games.

Oklahoma expects to have its starting QB Dillon Gabriel back on the field Saturday. That’s a big plus as the offense clearly struggled without him. I think this is a “get right” game for the Sooners and will lay the points. 10*

Navy is on a 3-0 ATS win streak coming into Friday, all of the covers coming as underdogs. Twice during that stretch, the Midshipmen have won outright. As a 17.5-point dog, they won at East Carolina 23-20. The following week saw them lose 13-10 at Air Force, but they got the cash as 14-point dogs. Last week saw the Middies double their season point total with a 53-21 beatdown of Tulsa in Annapolis. 

That was Navy’s highest scoring game since 2018. Now they head to SMU to face a Mustangs team that has lost three in a row and failed to cover four in a row. 

SMU was outscored 31-6 in the second half by Central Florida last week. Before that, there were losses to TCU and Maryland. As if things weren’t already bad enough, two players have decided to sit out the remainder of the 2022 season with the intention of hitting the transfer portal. 

These offenses are very different. We know what Navy likes to do as they are #1 in the country in rushing attempts per game. SMU prefers to “air it out” and leads the country in passing yards. 

I believe the key to this game will be Navy’s ability to keep the ball away from the SMU offense. The Mustangs defense has been unable to stop the run during the losing streak, giving up close to 200 rush yards per game. So how do you think they’ll fare against Navy? Too many points to pass up tonight. 10* 

It is Strider, the Braves’ young starter just back from the IL vs Nola, the Phillies veteran right-hander in Game three today. Nola has three shutouts in 4 games against the Braves, Astros and Cards in his last 4 starts. Nola has faced the Braves 4 times this year with mixed success, but has certainly come through down the stretch for the Phillies.

Strider has missed the better part of a month, but was dominant for the Braves, going 5-1 with an ERA of 1.71 in his last 7 starts. The only question is how long will he be able to pitch today?

The Braves have the edge on offense, and have an excellent road record. The Phillies’ bullpen has not been trust-worthy this year, nearly blowing a big lead in Game 1. As well as Nola has pitched down the stretch, the Braves have been able to get to him in the past, and the Phillies have had no success vs Strider. Take the Braves to win.

After a cancellation we will finally see  Game two of  the Cleveland New york series on Friday.  The Guardians have scored just four runs in three games, which may work against the Rays, but likely not vs. the Yankees.  It is doubtful if Cleveland will break out vs Yankees lefty Cortes, who has been very fine lately, at 3-1, 1.79/L7 games.  Cortes has thrown 13+ shutout innings in his last 2 starts, and gave up just 3 runs over 12+ innings against the Guardians this year.  The Guardians' offense drops to 28th in the league when facing a left-hander.
Bieber has been almost as good down the stretch as Cortes and pitched a very fine 1 run 7+ inning game in the wild card series.  Both teams have excellent bullpens; even with multiple injuries, the Yankees are still getting fine relief.
The Guardians are just 1-6 vs the Yankees, likely to become 1-7 on Friday.  At home and vs a right-hander, the Yankees have too much firepower to be denied.  Take the Yankees to win.

Will it be one step forward and two steps back, or has Fields made a legitimate step as a developing QB? The Bears have been a run-first offense to date, but Fields had his first good start of the season vs the Vikings, with personal highs in passing yards, completion %, and a passer rating of 118. He also ran successfully. The Bears’ passing offense until last week left much to be desired. The run game was limited last week but has been a strength, fifth in the league in yards to date, with Herbert, Montgomery and Fields all as viable options.

The Commanders’ offense is almost entirely about the pass; their run game is virtual nonexistent, which is a shame as the Bears struggle vs the run. Wentz threw for a ton of yards against the Titans last week, but results have been mixed in other games. He has been sacked 20 times this season and has thrown 6 interceptions to date, with just an 86 average passer rating.

The Commanders’ defense is middle of the pack to date against the run, and poor against the pass. The two teams are roughly equal in QB pressure, although the Commanders have more sacks. Washington doesn’t force very many turnovers, with just 1 interception to date. Other than last week against Cousins, the Bears’ pass offense has been impressive; 5 interceptions to date, 9th in pass yards allowed while limiting opposing passers to an 82 passer rating this season.

No one expected much of the Bears this year. They are undefeated at home, and for them it is definitely a case of the glass half full so far. More was expected of the Commanders, and there is turmoil around Wentz’s play in particular. Heads could roll if the Commanders lose this game. I am on the side of the young never-say-die Bears this week. Look for another home victory on TNF. 9*!

There are five Big 12 teams currently ranked in the Top 25. Baylor isn’t one of them, but they should be and I like the Bears laying a short number Thursday night in Morgantown.

Thus far, Baylor has taken a couple of tough losses at home, to BYU (overtime) and Oklahoma State. Those teams are a lot better than West Virginia, who may not even end up in a bowl this year as the Mountaineers are a solid candidate to finish last in the conference.

The WVU defense has allowed 38 or more points to three of the four FBS teams that they’ve faced. They’ve allowed 43.7 points/game in the three losses. Virginia Tech, a horrible offensive team, was the only FBS offense that the Mountaineers have been able to keep in check.

Baylor’s offense has been pretty good thus far, averaging 37.4 points/game. QB Shapen should have plenty of success through the air tonight against a bad WVU pass defense. Before running into OK State, the Bears’ defense had been getting the job done and I expect them to play well tonight. Baylor is 20-4-2 ATS off an ATS loss. 9*

This is a big game for Baylor, who has yet to win in Morgantown (0-5 all-time). But there’s a first time for everything and considering the state of West Virginia football right now, this seems like an obvious time for the Bears to get their first ever win here. WVU will also be without its leading rusher due to a concussion.

You probably don't know this, but Temple has been surprisingly strong on the defensive side of the ball. They rank Top 10 in the country in yards per play allowed! I believe the defense will keep the Owls in this game vs. UCF until the very end, so take the points.

If you only looked at the final score of Temple’s last game, you’d just assume they were dominated by Memphis as it ended up being a 24-3 loss. However, that’s not the case. The Owls shut Memphis out for more than a half with the first points allowed being a TD late in the third quarter. Two of Memphis’ TD drives began in Temple territory.

So as long as Temple’s offense takes better care of the football this week, count on them not giving up many points to UCF. For the season, they are allowing just 16.8 points/game and the most they’ve allowed to any one opponent is 30. With that kind of defense, it’s pretty crazy that we are getting more than three touchdowns here.

Now Temple’s offense is obviously not very good. But UCF was certainly struggling for a while there against SMU last week. The Golden Knights had just 10 points going into halftime before they caught fire coming out of the break. Despite winning 41-19, total yards were basically even in that game and SMU finished with seven more first downs.

UCF is not just 0-4 ATS following their previous four ATS wins, but they are also 0-5 ATS following a straight up win by 20 or more points. This is a good spot to fade them against what has been a surprisingly excellent defense. 10*

The big bats came through in game one of the Mariners and Astros match-up, hardly the tight pitching game that many expected.  The Mariners haven’t had success in Houston and pin their hopes on Luis Castillo today.  Left hander Valdez starts for the Astros.  Valdez had a fine start against the Phillies in his last appearance but was hit hard in his previous two appearances, giving up more than a run an inning.  Seattle has faced Valdez twice this season with modest success, scoring 6 runs, 3 in each game, over 11+ innings.  Valdez is better on the road with an ERA of more than 1 run higher in Houston.  He did not pitch well in the post season last year.
The same was true in Castillo’s last regular season starts; two poor starts followed by a strong outing.  Castillo then threw a 7+ inning shutout against the Jays, his first appearance in the post season.
Both these teams had very fine bullpens in the regular season, although the Mariners’ has struggled in the last couple of games.  The Mariners have, however, hit better than usual down the stretch.  Castillo is Seattle’s best chance to get a win against a very tough Houston side.  Look for him to pitch well again in his second career playoff start after a demoralizing Mariners’ loss in game one. Take Castillo to out-duel Valdez today, and the M's to win or stay close. I am taking the Mariners on the run line at +1 1/2.

A couple of very good veterans meet up in game with Darvish facing left hander Kershaw today.  Darvish threw off concerns about past playoff woes and tossed a gem against the Mets in the Wildcard series.  He was wickedly good in September with a 1.85 ERA for the month.  The Dodgers have seen a lot of Darvish this year, and he has been very good in three of the four starts, while struggling with a 5 run effort in an earlier start.  Darvish is better pitching at home and can struggle in the first inning, although we didn't see it in his last appearance vs the Dodgers resulting in a 7 inning 2 hit shutout.
Kershaw has been equally sharp, with an ERA of 1.59 in his last three starts, and hasn't given up more than 2 runs since returning from the IL in early August.  He has pitched under 130 innings this year, and is well rested, so we should see vintage Kershaw today.  He has allowed just 1 run in 12 innings against the Padres in two previous appearances this season.
The Dodgers were the league's leading offense this year, but weren't quite as dominant down the stretch.  They got to Clevinger early yesterday but were held in check by the Padres' pen.  The Dodgers have a fine bullpen, also well rested at the moment.  
I expect solid outings from both starters today. This could be Darvish's finest season if he can make a solid play off run, but it is hard to argue with Kershaw.  The Dodgers' bullpen is formidable and well rested. The Padres' relievers shut down the Dodgers last night, and Darvish can pitch for real length.  Take Game 2 to go under the total.

It’s an interesting Sun Belt matchup that we’ve got midweek as underachieving Louisiana travels to face a Marshall team that’s 0-3 ATS since their upset of Notre Dame. I’m going to lay the points with the Thundering Herd.

Louisiana has lost three in a row, two of them as favorites. They were 11.5 point favorites in a 33-21 loss at Rice where the offense gained only 275 yards. The following week saw the Ragin Cajuns go to LA Monroe and lose as 9.5-point favorites, 21-17, this time getting outgained by 65 yards. Two Saturdays ago, the Cajuns did cover, as 8.5-point underdogs, but they still lost 20-17 at home to South Alabama.

Now it’s back on the road facing a Marshall team that has an 83-10 scoring edge at home. Now both previous visitors to Huntington were FCS teams. But the Thundering Herd did beat Notre Dame. Louisiana has topped 24 points in only one game this season. Marshall has allowed more than 21 just once. 

This is a big revenge game for Marshall, who lost to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl last year, 36-21. This is a much worse Louisana team now though as Billy Napier left for Florida (the NO Bowl was the first game without him) and they had to replace half their starters, including QB, four OL and three LB. 

This is Marshall’s first year in the Sun Belt and they desperately want that first conference win after losing outright to Troy two games ago. The Herd have an excellent defense, one that shouldn’t give up many points to an anemic Louisiana offensive attack. The betting market seems to like the home team big and so do I. 10* Marshall

The Phillies' ace Wheeler  finished the season with a surge, then threw a fine  6 inning shut-out in his first taste of post season play. He has pitched very well against the Braves this season after  facing them 3 times.  His last appearance against them was a 7 inning 1 run gem.
Wheeler's opponent Wright was 21-5 this year.  He has pitched a lot of innings in his first full year, and his ERA and opposing batters' avg. has crept up slightly at the last.  He had a taste of the postseason last year, and has pitched well vs the Phillies this season.
Both teams are hitting well, but the Phillies have the momentum of a WC series win and a steal in the first game against the Braves. The Braves have one advantage on paper in this series; the bullpen.  The Phillies' bullpen has had some very good relief efforts down the stretch.  I like the Phillies chances of a lead as long as Wheeler is in the game, and am counting on the bullpen to keep things close.

If the Padres had success against the Mets this year, they haven't against the Dodgers. Nor are they great against left-handers.  No one has had much success against Urias lately.  He is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.52 in his last 7 starts. The entire pitching staff will be well rested, so post-Urias (he pitches usually for 5 or 6 innings), that killer LA bullpen should be ready to go.  The Padres' right-hander Clevinger has had mixed results of late; 4 of his last 6 starts are of the poor variety, allowing more than a run an inning in those appearances. He was roughed up by the Dodgers twice in September.  He gave up 7 home runs last month, and has an ERA nearly double on the road.
The Dodgers have had the best offense in the league this year, but they've struggled with the bats lately.  The Padres are actually outhitting them at the moment, however I expect the Dodgers to show their offensive stuff for the third straight time vs the Padres.
I suspect LA is on a mission this year, starting tomorrow.  The Dodgers are a large favorite, but this is the one game I feel safe in going on the run line.  Take the Dodgers -1 1/2.

The Mariners stunned the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round, storming back from an early 8-1 deficit to take Game 2 by a score of 10-9 and thus sweep the series. But the Astros should prove to be a far greater challenge, particularly with Justin Verlander on the hill Tuesday. 

Houston won 106 games and finished with the best record in the American League. They are overwhelming favorites to advance here and Verlander is an ideal choice to start Game 1, based on his Cy Young-worthy campaign where he posted a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 29 starts. 

The Astros went 12-7 against the Mariners in the regular season and that includes a 5-1 record when Verlander started. Five of those six starts from Verlander were quality. The one that wasn’t came in Seattle.

Like Verlander, Seattle’s Game 1 starter (Logan Gilbert) has done an excellent job at getting out of jams and stranding baserunners. However, Gilbert seemed to overachieve in the regular season as his FIP and xERA were higher than what you’d want to see. Righties hit him better than lefties and the Astros lineup is righty-heavy.

Verlander is simply too good to fade here and the Astros are 55-26 at home. I expect them to get out to an early lead against Gilbert and also note the Astros are 42-13 in day games. 9*

Based on past results, a  win should be in cards for the Chiefs today.  Kansas City's offense is a different beast this year; equally competent, but much more time-consuming, with more short targets for Mahomes, and a well developed running game.  The Chiefs have been great in the red zone, and with the exception of last week, Mahomes has had solid protection.  Even against that tough Buccaneers pass offense, Mahomes was a wizard in avoidance, and had great success.  At home at Arrowhead, and against another AFC West opponent, I like their chances.  On defense, they have been great against the run, which is important against a Raiders' team who are having good success on the ground.  The KC pass defense has given up yards, a ton of them facing Brady last week, but they have managed solid passer pressure, and are 7th in sacks, against a Raiders' O-line with mixed success.
Carr has not flourished this year for the Raiders with an 83.4 average passer rating. Running back Josh Jacobs has been a bit of a revelation, especially last week. As noted, the Chiefs have been dominant against the run, and against a high-scoring Chiefs offense, the Raiders may not have the same opportunity to run so consistently. On defense, the Raiders haven't been big on QB pressure, with just 5 sacks, and are very poor to date defending in the red zone.  They are also the second most penalized team at the moment.
I like the Chiefs chances today.  Look for another big game from Mahomes et al, and watch them win and cover.

The Mets and Padres are the only team to go to a wild card third game. Both have solid starters on the mound, but unlike the other series, we have seen more runs scored than expected to date. Mets’ right-hander Bassitt has had a fine season for the Mets, but has had a few tough starts mixed in with the good stuff this year. One was against the Padres early in the season, although he bounced back nicely the next time he faced them. He was also roughed up by the Braves in his last start, giving up 4 runs in just 2+ innings.

Musgrove has been solid for the Padres down the stretch, giving up just one run in three home appearances, after some mixed results in August and early September. He face the Mets just once this year, giving up 4 runs in 5 innings, not hi finest effort.

The Mets finally got the Padres monkey off their back last light, getting to the bullpen and putting up 7 runs. They are a very hot hitting team lately, and are tough on right-handed pitching. Honestly, this game could go either way tonight, however we have seen a steady diet of overs from both teams lately including games 1 and 2 of this series. Look for that trend to continue, and take the over.

The Eagles, looking for 5-0, are on the road facing the Cardinals. Murray and the Cardinals looked better in Week four, but face MUCH stiffer competition this week. The Cardinals losing 3 starters from their O-line to injury against the league’s toughest pass rush is hardly ideal.

The Eagles are better in almost every offensive and defensive category when compared to the Cardinals, and any categories where the Eagles showed weakness (as in Week one points allowed) they have addressed. They have controlled play in their games, are very good in the Red zone on both sides of the ball, and have been adaptable. Facing a tough pass rush last week, the Eagles produced monster yardage with the run game.

The most telling category for me is quarterback pressure. The Eagles, as noted, are first in sacks, and the Cardinals are 32nd. Allowing Hurts and Philadelphia’s very fine pass offense that kind of freedom is very dangerous. Against a stout Eagles defense, I don’t see Murray or the Arizona run offense having a comfortable game. Philadelphia at 6-0 seems like a distinct possibility. Take the Eagles to win and cover.

The 3-1 Cowboys face the 2-2 Rams in LA, with the usual huge hooplah surrounding these two teams. Dallas is a 5 1/2 point underdog. Is this the week that Stafford starts to show his worth in 2022? Against a very tough Dallas pass defense, I have my doubts. The Rams are 29th in points scored, averaging less than the Cowboys sans Dak. Cooper Rush is 15 points higher in average QB rating, has been sacked just 4 times, and has yet to give up a pick. Stafford has been sacked 16 times and has 6 interceptions to date. Add to that an unwillingness to throw to more than 2 receivers.

The Cowboys’ defense struggles against the run, but the Rams hardly have a running game, and are sitting 30th in rushing yards. The Cowboys are top five in QB pressure, and 2nd in fewest yards per pass attempt. It could be more of the same for Stafford this week, after being pushed around by the 49ers last week. The Rams’ O-line has multiple injury issues at the moment.

Can the Dallas Cowboys offense produce points against the Rams? First off, they may not need that many. They have solid options at running back with Pollard and Elliott, averaging over 100yds a game. Rush now has a few games under his bet and has shown marked improvement. He threw for 223 yards and a 107 QB rating last week, not bad for a back up. There are flaws in this version of the Rams, and injuries aren’t helping. I am on the Cowboys and the Cowboys’ defense on Sunday. Take them at +5.5, although an outright win would not surprise me. 9*!

The 1-3 Saints face the 2-2 Seahawks in new Orleans on Sunday. The Seahawks put up a whopping 48 points against Detroit, but gave back almost as many on defense. Geno Smith is the darling of Seattle , with comparisons to Wilson in his prime. He is a surprising 3rd in passer rating for the season, has been remarkably accurate, and appears to be settling in as a solid option. He has a good running back in Penny, terrific targets, and has had time to operate. The Seahawks are 5th in sacks allowed. New Orleans doesn’t blitz frequently, and are not strong in pressuring QBs, just 23rd in sacks to date. They gave up 263 yards to Cousins last week, but otherwise have limited teams in passing yards. They are just 20th in rushing yards allowed. They have not proved to be as dominant a defense as might have been expected to date.

Dalton was fine last week against a bottom-third Vikings defense. Kamara should be back with Ingram this week. The Saints managed 25 (nearly 28) points vs the Vikings, and have a great opportunity to score more against a highly suspect Seahawks defense. Seattle is in the bottom third in most of the league’s defensive categories, including points, passing yards and rushing yards allowed, and makes most passers look like stars.

Both teams should move the ball well, and while the Seahawks scoring another 48 against the Saints is unlikely, New Orleans has an opportunity to set a season high for points against Seattle this week. Take this game to go over.

It’s been a disappointing start to the Premier League season for West Ham. But the Hammers can certainly recover and I expect them to pick up all three points Sunday when they host Fulham. 

Fulham was promoted back into the Premier League this season and after a respectable start, they’ve predictably regressed. An early red card doomed them against Newcastle United last week and the Cottagers ended up coming out on the wrong side of a 4-1 defeat. Their lone goal came late (88’) when the match was already long decided. 

Meanwhile, West Ham beat Wolverhampton 2-0 last week. They are still just one point above the relegation zone however, so recording back to back Premier League wins for the first time this season would be a huge boost.

The Hammers were also successful in the Europa Conference League during the week, beating Anderlecht 1-0. While they are now dealing with a quicker turnaround between fixtures, I don’t anticipate that being a problem.

Fulham is actually pretty low in expected points (18th), so they’ve been a bit lucky so far. West Ham is pretty middle of the pack in expected points, so they’ve been unlucky. No Premier League side has been worse when it comes to expected goals allowed than has Fulham, who hasn’t been nearly as good on their travels and will probably be without Mitrovic. 10*

With Colorado State pulling an outright upset last night, there are only three teams left in College Football without an ATS win. Two reside out in the Pac 12. One of them is Stanford. I am taking the Cardinal plus the points at home in this late Saturday matchup.

Oregon State QB Chance Nolan is questionable to play here. The way he’s turned the ball over the last two games, perhaps the Beavers feel they’d be better off without him. In the losses to USC and Utah, OSU finished -8 in the turnover battle. Tough to win when that happens.

But when you’re Oregon State, it’s tough to win on the road, whether you are turning the ball over or not. The Beavers aren’t just 0-3 ATS as road chalk the last three seasons, they’ve lost all three games outright! And they are just 2-8 SU their L10 road games overall after getting beat 42-16 at Utah last week.

Stanford should not be confused with either USC or Utah, the two teams that beat OSU, but the Beavers aren’t USC, Washington and Oregon, who are the three teams that beat the Cardinal. That’s especially true if the road team has to turn to a backup QB. 

Eventually Stanford has to cover a spread, right? Going back to last year, it’s an inexplicable 0-10 ATS run. They are also due for some better turnover luck and sure enough here comes a team that’s given it away eight times in the last two games. Weird things happen in “Pac 12 After Dark” and I give the home team an excellent shot at pulling the outright upset here. 9*

The Padres continued their season-long dominance of the Mets on Friday.  I underestimated Darvish, based on his past play-off record, and lost yesterday.  San Diego is a very good road team, and today’s starter is also a better pitcher on the road.  Left-hander Snell had a strong finish this year, with a 1.76 ERA over his last 7 games, and just 1 run given up in his last three appearances.  Snell has certainly been here before and has the opportunity to finally to come through for the Padres.
DeGrom is on the mound for the Mets.  He has given up more runs (and home runs) than expected in his last 4 starts, with an ERA of over 4.00 in his last 4 starts.  He has had finger issues, and hasn’t pitched in over a week,  so will be well rested.  He will likely be on a short leash should the finger issue flare up.
The Mets have a solid edge on offense, and are in the proverbial “backs to the wall” situation.   They are not as strong offensively against left-handed pitching however, dropping to mid-pack for the season. The Padres have the momentum, and a real chance to make a mark in the play-offs. Both teams have solid bullpens, lightly used yesterday.  Snell is the Padres’ best chance to win this series, and while they are a considerable underdog today, I expect them to either steal another game or at least stay close today. Take the Padres on the run line at +1 1/2.  9*!

Kentucky has a big question mark at quarterback as Will Levis (foot) is listed as a game-time decision. Regardless if Levis plays, I am taking South Carolina plus the points here.

The last time we saw Levis, he was coughing up two key fumbles in the red zone last week against Ole Miss. The Wildcats ended up suffering their first loss and the SEC schedule will only get tougher from here on out. 

South Carolina seems revitalized after two straight 50+ point efforts. Granted, the competition was not tantamount to what they’ll face in the SEC. But the Gamecocks now have a lot of confidence heading into Lexington and are the healthier of these two teams. 

Kentucky is not exactly the most impressive 4-1 team in the country to begin with and certainly not the 13th best team in the country. They had to come from behind to win at Florida, couldn’t shake Northern Illinois and even wins over Miami OH and Youngstown State weren’t as dominant as the final scores indicate. Now they may be without their starting QB.

The way this line has been bet certainly tells me that Levis probably isn’t going to play. Either way, take the points with an improving South Carolina outfit. Don’t forget about their QB Spencer Rattler. When not facing Georgia, the Gamecocks have scored at least 30 in every game this season. 10*

The Guardians came a way with a victory in Game one, when the Rays couldn’t score more than a single run. This is not a new phenomenon; they managed just 1 or less runs in 6 of their last 9 games, and are hitting just .157 against right-handers in that time. The Rays runs for/against is an unhealthy 2.3/3.7, compared to the Guardians’ 4.6/2.85. The Guardians are also hitting a robust .286 against right-handers of late.

Glasnow has pitched well in his only 2 games of the season, but lasted just 3+ inning in each, and Tampa was unable to capitalize either time. He may pitch longer, but in game two of the wild card series everyone is available in relief. Triston MacKenzie starts for the Guardians. He out-dueled Glasnow and the Rays in a 2-1 victory just last week. MacKenzie has been all but unhittable at times this season, and can also pitch for length. Yogi Berra probably said something to the effect of “If you can’t score, you can’t win.” These words seem particularly applicable to the Rays at the moment. My money is on Cleveland, at home, to finish the Rays off in Game Two.

So depending on what your closing number was for Michigan-UConn (either 58.5 or 59), the 4th ranked Wolverines are either 4-0-1 to the Under or 4-1. They won that UConn game 59-0. Each of Michigan’s first four games saw at least 58 total points scored. Then they played Iowa last week and it was 27-14.

So save for Iowa, this number is right in line with how previous Michigan games have ended up. The thing is, the Wolverines have played some terrible offenses thus far. Maryland would be the exception and they put up 27 on Jim Harbaugh’s defense. 

While I don’t think Indiana is going to challenge Michigan for an outright upset, I do see the Hoosiers putting up a decent number of points. This is because they play at the fastest tempo in the entire country, running a play every 17.5 seconds. Additionally, IU throws it at one of the highest rates in the country. As they are likely to be trailing most of this game, there’s no doubt QB Bazelak will be airing it out Saturday.

Michigan is scoring 45.4 points/game and should have no problem moving the ball against the Indiana defense, which has allowed 110 points in the last three games. JJ McCarthy is looking good at QB in Ann Arbor and even against Iowa’s good defense, the Wolverines averaged five yards/play.

Looking at the spread, all we need is three touchdowns from Indiana in this game to likely hit the Over. They have scored 21 or more in every game this year. Michigan’s defense isn’t as strong as it was in 2021. Take the Over. 10* 

Tennessee arrives in Baton Rouge ranked #8 in the country and fresh off a bye. But the 4-0 Volunteers are about to face their toughest test to date in the form of a LSU team that is a missed extra point away from being 5-0.

Since losing the opener to Florida State, Brian Kelly has really turned the Tigers around. Now should they have won last week at Auburn? Probably not! But picking up a big road win like that can do wonders for a team. 

QB Daniels is ready to go this week for LSU as is a defense that should offer plenty of resistance to Tennessee’s high-powered offense. Remember that the last time we saw the Vols, they barely escaped Florida, at home. It was a 38-33 final and UT gave up almost 600 yards.

That wasn’t Tennessee’s first close call either. They only won at Pitt by seven and needed OT to do so. This is by no means an impervious outfit coming out of Knoxville, despite the presence of QB Hendon Hooker. 

Here in Baton Rouge, LSU has already beaten a very good Mississippi State team. That’s a better win than anything on Tennessee’s resume. The Vols don’t come here to Baton Rouge often (last visit was 2010) and haven’t beaten LSU in more than 15 years. LSU is 4-0 SU/ATS L4 hosting the SEC East. 8* 

This UNLV-San Jose State matchup on Friday night should turn into a shootout, even with the Rebels down two of their top three receivers.

Just five weeks into the season, UNLV has doubled its win total from the previous two years. Their best way to attack the San Jose State defense in this one would be via the run as the Spartans allow 152 yards/game on the ground, 80th in the country. One of SJSU’s best defenders, Noah Wright, left last week’s game on a stretcher. So UNLV shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball in this one.

So far the Rebels are putting up an average of 37.8 points/game. They’ve scored at least 31 on everyone besides California.

But SJSU’s offense has come around with 67 points in wins over Western Michigan and Wyoming the last two games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been quite effective for the Spartans, throwing for more than 1,000 yards so far and adding another 180 on the ground. Last week, New Mexico QB Miles Kendrick was able to run for 50 yards and two touchdowns. Cordeiro should have a big game.

But UNLV QB Brumfield is pretty good too. This could easily be a game where both teams score 30-plus points. The Over is 15-1 in the Rebels’ last 16 Friday games and cashed last week against New Mexico. The offenses are better than the defenses in this one, so let’s play accordingly. 10*

The Padres have had the Mets’ number this year, victorious in 4 of 5 games, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Mets are also just 5-5 of late, and were swept by the Braves, before turning the tables on the Nationals. Game 1 of the Padres/Mets wildcard series features 2 fine veteran starters. Darvish is off a great season and was Pitcher of the Month in September. He has been remarkably consistent, pitching 6 innings or more in all but two of his 30 starts. He had 3 shutouts in September, and an ERA for the month of 1.55. He has beaten the Mets twice this year, allowing just 1 run in 14 innings. Darvish is not quite as good on the road.

Scherzer has had a light schedule, pitching just 4 times in September and October, so will be well rested. He was roughed up a bit in his last start vs. the Braves, but was very good in September with an ERA of 1.06 and an opposing batting avg. of .127. He is very good when pitching at home.

On offense the Mets have a solid edge. They are best in the league over the last two weeks, .291/.810 compared to the Padres’ .253/.710. The Padres hit much better on the road, but the Mets are very tough on right-handers.

The elephant in the room is Darvish’s very poor post season record (2-5, 5.18). Scherzer has been a good bet in post-season. The Mets have a pair of very hot top ten hitters over the last 2 weeks, and the best closer in baseball. In spite of Darvish’s fine season and the Padres’ strong record vs. the Mets this year, I am wagering on the home team. Mets to win.

Game One of the Mariners/Jays wild card series pits righty vs. righty, Castillo against Manoah, in what should be a pitchers’ duel. The Mariners have swept the Jays this year; those four straight losses to Seattle were the Jays’ low point, resulting in a management change. The two teams are 2nd and 3rd in MLB offense over the last two weeks, although it is not as close as it sounds. The Jays have a considerable edge recently and for the season. The Jays are very tough on right-handed pitching.

Castillo had been scuffling a bit, with an ERA of over 5.00 in his last three starts, but rebounded with a 6 inning, 2 run outing last time out. He held the Jays to the same line when he faced them in May.

The Jays’ Manoah has been very sharp L7 and has given up just 1 run over 19 innings in his last three appearances. He pitched into the eighth, giving up 2 runs when he last faced the Mariners.

The Mariners have an excellent bullpen but they have given up more runs than expected lately, against sub-.500 teams. The Jays’ pen is solid when called upon for a couple of innings but can struggle past that.

Manoah has been very impressive down the stretch, and gets the nod in game one. The Jays also have the edge on offense, and are a much better team when playing at home. Take the home team Jays to win game one.

The 30th and 31st-best scoring offenses meet for the fifth week of Thursday Night Football.  Injuries have compromised both teams' running games, Wilson is sore, and the Colts defense has take a pair of hits.  Is Ryan starting to look more comfortable?  He was better last week, but that was against arguably the worst team in pass defense.  The Colts' offensive line has struggled and could be worse this week.  Ryan has been sacked at the league maximum, with five interceptions and a ton of fumbles to date.  

The Broncos have been tough on passers; 5th in pass yards allowed, 2nd in passing TDs allowed, and with strong QB pressure, 6th in sacks. Their rush defense broke down inexplicably last week, but the Colts' rush attack has been surprisingly unimpressive to date, and now is missing Taylor.  Wilson is a trooper, and looked much better last week, finishing with a very high passer rating.  The Colts are not such a threat to pressure Wilson, and he is also far more mobile than Ryan.  The Broncos at least have a plan B for a rush attack, and if anyone should be worried about fumbles, it is the Colts.

A line of -3 is available for Denver, and anything under that is a bonus.  I am on the Broncos to bounce back, win and cover.

This game was supposed to be played last Saturday, then Sunday, but Hurricane Ian pushed it back to Wednesday night. SMU is 2-2 after suffering two straight losses while UCF is 3-1 after a win over Georgia Tech. Both offenses are potent in their own ways (SMU - passing, UCF - rushing), but I believe we’re in for a surprisingly “low-scoring” game tonight. By “low-scoring,” I mean Under is the play here.

UCF only racked up 333 total yards against a bad Georgia Tech team in its last game. Take away a blocked punt return and the Golden Knights scored just one touchdown in the game. They’ll mainly look to run the ball in this game, which means the clock is going to keep moving and that’s friendly to the Under cashing.

Now SMU is a pass-heavy offense. But they are likely to encounter some resistance from a UCF defense that has not allowed more than 20 points in any contest this year. The Golden Knights are giving up just 13.5 points/game. I do expect them to allow a season-high tonight, but not enough where this game goes Over.

Only one of UCF’s four games so far would have eclipsed tonight’s total and that was the opener vs. FCS South Carolina State where the Knights hung 56 on the board themselves. We won’t see that kind of offensive effort from them here, trust me. Against their two toughest foes - Louisville and Georgia Tech - the offense has produced just three total offensive touchdowns. This is the highest O/U line for any UCF game this season. 

Similarly, only one of SMU’s previous four games would have made it past tonight’s O/U line. That was the last one, against TCU, and we all saw (against Oklahoma) how good the Horned Frogs offense is. Play the Under. 10*

The Cubs have lost two straight to the Reds, after a 7 game win streak. Runs have been scarce in the series, just 6 total in the first 2 meetings. I played on Wednesday’s pitchers successfully last week. Cubs’ starter Sampson continued his stellar stretch run, pitching 7 strong innings of one run ball. His ERA is a very sharp 1.70 in his last 7 starts. I expect him to finish strongly and will remember him for next year.

Reds’ starter Ashcraft lasted just 2+ innings against the Cubs, giving up 5 runs. His starts have been going in the wrong direction, allowing more runs in shorter starts.

Neither teams is hitting, with both averaging well under .200 lately. This may be the Cubs’ opportunity to break out. They got to Ashcraft early and went on to their biggest win in some time, finishing 6-1. I expect a similar result on Wednesday. Take the Cubs to win.

Last night’s 4-3 loss to the Tigers resigns the Mariners to being a road team in the Wild Card Round where they will travel to face either Toronto or Cleveland. The M’s currently have a 1.5 game lead over the Rays for the fifth seed, which would mean a matchup with Toronto. Looking to bounce back Tuesday, Seattle has shuffled its starting rotation and I like them to win the first game of this doubleheader. 

Detroit has been a decent “spoiler” down the stretch and by winning 11 of its last 13 games, they’ve already ensured they won’t lose 100 games. Unless they lose out and Kansas City wins out, the Tigers won’t finish in the basement of the AL Central either.

It was going to be Marco Gonzales starting this first game for Seattle, but that’s been changed to Chris Flexen and the nightcap will now be a bullpen game. Flexen hasn’t actually started a game since 8/6, but has made one relief appearance against the Tigers since then. Detroit has one of the weakest lineups in all of baseball, ranking last in runs, last in slugging and 29th (next to last) in OBP. I expect Flexen to turn in a strong outing here.

Can’t say the same for the Tigers’ Eduardo Rodriguez though. He got bombed for six runs in a 7-0 loss to Seattle back on Sept 1. While Rodriguez has posted three consecutive quality starts coming into this game, a fourth would be surprising seeing as how he has a 4.02 ERA and 1.34 WHIP on the year.

Seattle can wrap up the 5-seed with a sweep today. So look for them to come out strong and take this first game of the doubleheader. Detroit is just 9-19 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this year. 9*

MNF week 4 brings us the next installment in the Rams/49ers’ rivalry. So what has the home team done well to date? Sterling defense in all three games; they’ve limited points and yards, have a great pass defense, and solid run defense. The 49ers are also very good in time of possession. One caveat; they have lost Trent Williams for this week. Their rush offense has been solid as well, although it did stumble vs Denver. The big question on pass defense, is how much can Jimmy G improve after a terrible effort against a very tough Broncos pass defense. The Rams’ defense has been solid against the run but has given up plenty of pass yards and is just average in Qb pressures. Will Garoppolo break out in Week 4? I don’t see it, although he does have a fine record against the Rams.

We know what Stafford is capable of, but he has only had middling results so far, including 5 interceptions. He had a good effort against the Cardinals last week, but faces a much tougher defensive beast on Monday. Stafford and the Rams’ 30th ranked run game were stymied by the Bills’ defense, which is similar in make-up to the 49ers’. My conclusion: neither team gets very many points for very different reasons. Take the Under on Monday.

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You have to feel for the Reds’ rookie pitcher Hunter Greene this year. He took it on the chin for weeks early in the season, then gets his act together with a fine 2.01 EAR in his last 7 starts and still can’t win, getting little support from the Reds’ bats or pen.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are loving it down the stretch, winning 9 of 10. While their bats are still sub-par, they are getting great pitching from all quarters, allowing just 6 runs total in their last 6 games. Wesneski, the Cubs’ fine young rookie has impressed, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety. He faced the Reds in August and blanked them over five innings.

The Reds are in the cellar on offense, hitting a remarkably poor .169/.497 in the last week and have the bullpen struggling as well. Take the Cubs to win again today, although it may take the full nine innings.

The Cubs haven't hit especially well lately, but boy are they getting good pitching from all sides. Rookie Cubs' starter Wesneski has been an eye-opener, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety.  The Reds' rookie Hunter Greene has finally harnessed his huge potential and has been pitching very well of late.  The Reds are hitting worse than any team in the league lately, just .169/.497 in the last week. Greene should pitch long enough to keep the Reds' pen out of too much trouble.  The Cubs are getting solid support from their relievers.  Take this game to go under! 9*!

The Commanders, everyone’s latest whipping boys take on the Cowboys, already damned and redeemed this season. The Cowboys will likely start Cooper Rush again. Rush has been competent, if not at all spectacular, well protected by the Cowboys’ O-line, and has great receivers, including a returning Michael Gallup. Wentz has been a sitting duck behind an ineffective Washington O-line. Sacked as often as Burrows, no one has faced more QB pressure or the blitz than Wentz. Tough conditions to excel under. Sacked 9 times last week, the Commanders’ passing yards dropped by 100 yards from week two. Facing the Cowboys’ top of the line pass defense, it will likely be another long day for Wentz. Adding an indifferent run game, averaging just 86 yards a game, doesn’t aid the overall Commanders’ offense.

The Dallas run defense has not been as effective, allowing 130+ yds an attempt and nearly 5 yds per carry. The Giants ran for 167 yards last week. The overall defense has been very effective, limiting teams to just 17+ points a game to date.

The Cowboys have a pair of good running backs and a top 11 run game. The Commanders’ defense have not handled the run nor the pass well to date. Look for a good situation for Pollard and Elliott. It should also be Rush’s best opportunity for a breakthrough week. I see the Cowboys seriously limiting Wentz and the Commander’s offense, and scoring enough to both win and cover on Sunday.

The Browns, a small favorite, face the 1-2 Falcons at home in week 4. Brissett has looked pretty sharp as a stand-in, with a healthy 10th rated QB ranking and a solid performance last week. He had 2 Tds, 0 interceptions and a 109 passer rating in week 3, not to mention a 74% completion rate in his last two games. Then there is Chubb, and don’t forget about Hunt, making a very tough 1-2 punch on the top running game in the league. The Browns’ offense have been the best in the league in time of possession, and they don’t turn the ball over very often. The Falcons have been turnover-prone to date.

The Falcons have put up almost as many points as the Browns. Mariota had a solid game in week three, and has also run the ball well, but has been sacked more than average, and has already thrown 3 picks. The Falcons’ Patterson put up huge numbers on the run last week, and has been a surprise standout so far, but is questionable with a knee injury for week four. Other than Mariota, Patterson IS the Falcons running game. He is a huge loss if his play is compromised.

All eyes were on the Browns’ defense after week two’s catastrophic ending. They played much better in week three, and have been tough against the run, although were a bit sloppy last week. They have also been tough on opposing passers, although injuries will play a role in that regard this Sunday.

The Falcons defense is one of the worst in the league in a number of defensive categories, including points, total yards, and passing yards. They are just mid-pack in rushing categories, and while they are solid in QB pressure, the Browns’ O-line has protected Brissett well.

Look for another solid game from Brissett, and the Browns’ rush game to again dominate. If Patterson is compromised, things could go badly for the Falcons. Take the Browns to win.

Western Kentucky is 3-1 but it has not been a challenging schedule for the Hilltoppers. They’ve beaten FIU and Hawaii, who are probably the two worst FBS teams in the country, plus a FCS team in Austin Peay. Austin Peay may be the “best” win of the three, even though it was 73-0 last week against FIU. 

Yes, WKU probably should have beaten Indiana too, but instead lost that game in overtime. Because of that close call and the 73-0 win last week, I think we’ve got some nice value to go against the Hilltoppers this week.

Troy is 3-0 ATS as an underdog thus far, going against Ole Miss, Appalachian State and Marshall. After losing the way they did against App State (hail mary), it would have been easy for the Trojans to fold the following week against Marshall. But instead they took the game outright, 16-7, as a three-point dog.

The Trojans were by no means dominated by Ole Miss, only getting outgained by 87 yards. There may be a unique advantage for them in this matchup. Backup QB Jarret Doege transferred from WKU right before the start of the season. Doege should certainly be able to share some intel with his new teammates. 

Defensively, Troy has a clear edge here. They just held Marshall (who upset Notre Dame, remember) to not just 7 points, but 174 total yards. Indiana put up 484 yards on the WKU defense, which also benefited from 10 turnovers in the first two games. Troy’s offense has averaged 437 yards/game the L3 weeks. 10*

So there are several reasons to like Mississippi State in this game. Let’s go through them!

One is that the situation is really against Texas A&M, who just played a down to the wire game against Arkansas and has #2 Alabama on deck. Mississippi State played Bowling Green last week and won easily, 45-14. 

The Alabama game is huge for A&M as they beat the Crimson Tide last season and there has been a lot of chatter coming from both coaches, recruiting-related and otherwise, all offseason. 

Last year, Mississippi State also faced A&M in an “Arkansas-Alabama sandwich.” They upset the Aggies 26-22 in College Station as seven-point underdogs with QB Will Rogers (no, not me) completing 46 of 59 passes for 408 yards and three touchdowns. Rogers also did not throw an interception in that game. 

A&M has been outgained in three straight games with the offense never scoring more than 17 points. Remember last week they needed a defensive score (and a missed field goal) for the win. Even worse for the Aggies offense is that they have lost WR Smith to an injury. I just don’t see how they keep pace with a Mississippi State offense that has scored 39 or more points three times. The Bulldogs also led LSU on the road 13-0 before collapsing in the second half. They desperately will want to avoid an 0-2 start to SEC play. Lay the points at home. 9*

This is a Top 25 matchup but oddsmakers clearly believe #23 Florida State is better than #22 Wake Forest. So do I. 

From 2012-18, FSU defeated Wake seven straight times. But they’ve lost the last two head to head meetings, both in Winston-Salem, including 35-14 last year. There have been some “lean” years in Tallahassee - by Seminoles’ standards - but early returns in 2022 have been promising for coach Mike Norvell.

The ‘Noles are 4-0, which is their best start since 2015 . This is also the first game that they’ll play as a ranked team in four years. Both the offense and defense are in the top 35 nationally in scoring. QB Jordan Travis threw for a career-high 321 yards (with just 16 completions!) in last week’s 44-14 win over Boston College.

While FSU remains unbeaten, Wake Forest is off its first loss of the season. It was a wild one for the Demon Deacons, a 51-45 double overtime loss at home to #5 Clemson. Their defense obviously got torched. Coming off a loss like that, WF is “ripe for the picking.” 

Wake Forest has not won here in Tallahassee since 2008. Their defense is a major concern, not just because of the Clemson game last week. The week before, the Deacons allowed Liberty to 36 points and that honestly could have been a loss as they were outgained and needed Liberty to miss a 2-point try in the final 70 seconds. FSU should roll here. 10* 

The Phillies are just 4-6 and holding down a wild card spot. Barely… They were blanked in the Cubs series, scoring just 4 runs in 3 games, but did bounce back on Friday night vs the Nationals. The Nat’s are just 3-7 and haven’t been hitting more than 3 runs a game in 9 of 10 starts. Anibal Sanchez starts for the Nationals. He has put together a surprising light-out 6 weeks at 3-1 and 1.31 ERA in his last 7 games.

His opponent Gibson has been very volatile lately with just 1 quality start in September. Otherwise it was a cruel month as he gave up more than a run an inning, with an opposing batting average of .379.

The Phillies have a better offense than the Nationals, but no one has hit Sanchez well right lately. Gibson has had some solid starts this year, but is not a very good bet to pitch well right now. Add to that a surprisingly good bullpen of late and the Nationals have a prime spoiler opportunity. A win against the Phillies is not out of the question, but take the Nationals to at least stay close, on the run line at +1 ½.

Things are looking up for the Marlins down the stretch.  They are 6-4 L10, are out of the cellar on offense lately and have their ace on the mound today.  Alcantara has been terrific lately, pitching for such length that he needs little support from the pen, and allowing just 4 runs over 24 innings in his last three games.
Meanwhile, the Brewers lost last night, are just 5-5 lately, and are outside looking in for a Wild Card spot at the moment.  They also have their ace on the mound today, but all is not perfect in Burnes-ville lately.  His ERA over the last two months is well over 4.00 and his innings pitched are down.  The Brewers desperately need a win but Alcantara is a very tough out, and with Miami actually scoring some runs, today's game is a  perfect spoiler opportunity.  I like the Marlins' chances today.  Take them on the run line and watch them win or cover.

Here’s an interesting game in Conference USA as last year’s conference champs (UTSA) are laying a small number to a team that just blew out Miami FL on the road last week, Middle Tennessee. 

Going back to last season, UTSA has seen eight straight games go Over the total. But I’m thinking differently here. The number has been bet up and is now higher than any of the Roadrunners’ previous three games vs. FBS foes this season. Note they had two games go to overtime, one of which (37-35 loss to Houston) would not have gone Over without the extra time.

Middle Tennessee just put up 500 yards of offense in Coral Gables and there was really nothing misleading about that 45-31 upset last week where they came in as 25.5-point underdogs. But remember this is the same Blue Raiders team that scored just 7 points in the season opener vs. James Madison with only 119 total yards.

The 408 passing yards we saw from MTSU quarterback Chase Cunningham last week seems like an anomaly. He had not thrown for more than 266 in any of the first three games, all of which were against lesser competition. And it’s not like the Blue Raiders ran the ball well in any of those games. They’ve averaged only 75 yards rushing in the three FBS games.

The UTSA offense will have to be fearful of a Middle Tennessee’s defense that has forced nine turnovers in the last three games. UTSA is long overdue for the Under to hit, especially with this being a higher number than all but one of those last eight games. 10*

Houston is one of just eight FBS teams to have played four games and have all of them go Over the total. But, if you were an Over bettor in any of those four games, you got a little lucky. The opener vs. UTSA went to triple overtime. The game at Texas Tech went to double overtime. They let Kansas start two eventual TD drives inside the 25-yard line. There was a late fumble return for a TD against Rice.

Now in the case of the last two games, the Over would have still hit even without the randomness. But certainly a case can be made that Houston games shouldn’t be this high-scoring. I think we’re likely to see the scoring come to an abrupt halt this week when the Cougars host Tulane, a team that has yet to allow more than 336 yards in a game all season. The Green Wave defense gives up just 11.8 points/game! 

Tulane has certainly had an interesting last two weeks. They upset Kansas State on the road but then fell at home to Southern Miss. Neither game was high-scoring with the Green Wave offense averaging just 20.5 points. 

They did allow an interception return for a TD last week, which was the difference in the game. So really, Tulane’s defense has only given up 40 points in four games.

There seems to be a lot wrong with Houston at the moment, particularly along the offensive line, and I don’t see that being fixed against this great Tulane defense which is fourth in the nation against the pass. Time for the Cougars to go Under. 9*

The Reds are 3-7 and were swept by the Pirates in their last series.. They are hitting just .184/.597 in the last week, making the mid-pack Cubs offense look like a powerhouse. Meanwhile, the Cubs are on a roll, winning 7 of 8, and getting great pitching. Cubs’ right hander Sampson has been sharp with a 2.78 ERA over his last 7 games, giving up just 2 runs over 18 innings in his last three starts. He beat Ashcraft, Friday’s starter and the Reds in August.

Ashcraft is just one game back from the IL, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits over 4 innings on his return. Don’t look for any support from the Reds’ pen. They are struggling with an ugly ERA of over 8.00 in their last games. Meanwhile the Cubs’ relievers have been very sharp. Lately.

The Reds have struggled badly in September while the Cubs are at home and probably enjoying their success down the stretch. I foresee another Cubs’ victory on Thursday. Cubs to win outright.

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

Thursday night Football week 4 is a tough call, especially considering the question marks around Tua and a number of other Dolphins. Both teams are pass-centric to the extreme. The Dolphins are 31st in rush offense. The Bengals have a solid RB in Mixon but he just hasn’t been used as much as might be expected. The Dolphins’ defense has been top ten vs the run, while the Bengals rush defense has struggled and could be exploited.

Tua, if available, has excelled this year and has largely been well protected. The Dolphins have great receivers, and when healthy should compete with any team.   Burrow has been pressured and sacked on far too many occasions to date. The Bengals won’t have as easy a time of it this week as they did vs the Jets. I expect Miami to take it to Burrow, and all of that pressure comes at a price.

The Dolphins defense came up big on numerous occasions vs the Bills. I expect a big game from them. I am not confident that the Bengals are out of the woods yet or that their offensive line can stand up to Miami. Burrow better have his dancing shoes on. Expect a close game but take the Dolphins to cover.  9*!

Utah State is sitting at 0-4 ATS and 4-0 to the Under after four games. Obviously, they will not fail to cover AND go Under in every game this season. Which of these streaks are more likely to end Thursday night against BYU? I think it’s the Under streak. BYU should score a ton tonight, but look for Utah State to get their “fair share” as well.

BYU is a big favorite here, for good reason. The #19 ranked Cougars did get blown out in Oregon two weeks ago, but also hold a Top 25 win against Baylor here in Provo. Last week marked the second time in four games that the offense gained over 500 total yards. QB Hall, looking very much like a NFL prospect, has topped 300 yards passing in two straight games and is completing 71.4% of his passes this season. 

The Utah State defense has given up an average of 41.3 points the last three games. While one of those came against Alabama, the other two opponents were Weber State and UNLV and both of those teams scored 34. I would not be surprised if BYU scored 40 in this game.

But Utah State should move the ball as well.  The Aggies had 421 yards last week against UNLV,  but shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. That was after turning it over four times the previous week. QB Logan Bonner was good last year, setting program records with 3,628 yards and 36 touchdowns. So I’m a little perplexed as to why he’s struggled so much (especially with turnovers) these first four weeks. 

The BYU defense has given up 20 or more in every game this season. I’ve got USU eclipsing that number Thursday night. This number has come down, but I’m liking the value on the Over, which has hit each of the last four times BYU has been off an ATS loss (did not cover -21.5 vs. Wyoming last week). 10*

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

The Astros have won 3 straight, the Diamondbacks, just 3 of 10. Offense is the difference; the Diamondbacks are 29th at the moment at .192/.576, while the Astros have surged to 3rd in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks don’t face the Astros often and usually struggle when they do. Two of the three games between them ended in very low totals.

It is a very fine pitching matchup today with Gallen facing Verlander.  Verlander has just two starts since returning from the IL, but he is as solid as ever, with the opposition hitting just .162 in September.   Gallen was sensational v. the Dodgers last time out, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innnings.  He is 4-1, with an ERA of just 1.16 L7, bouncing back from a pair of (for him) slightly off starts.

Verlander, battling for another Cy Young, will be all in today. Gallen,  as good as he has been, may very well be one of Verlander's heirs apparent. The Astros got to the D-backs' bullpen in the first game of this series, but I expect better success by the relievers in support of their best young starter today. The Astros' bullpen is generally excellent this season. Take the Arizona and Houston to go under the total today.

The Phillies have lost three straight, not what the Doctor ordered for a wild card run.  I am backing the Cubs on Wednesday and getting some very favorable odds.  They face a very experienced and successful starter in the Phillies' Nola on Wednesday, but have taken two straight from this same team.  The Cubs are surprisingly good as a home underdog this season and have a better record in September. The Phillies are struggling on the road at the moment.  They are hitting just mid-pack and giving up too many runs.  The bullpen has been unable to finish of late, with an elevated ERA.
The Cubs aren't hitting very well but they are getting solid pitching, both in starting and relief.  Wednesday's starter, Wesneski, is young and inexperienced but he doesn't pitch like it at all. Just a few starts into his career, he pitched into the 7th and gave up 2 and 1 runs in his last two appearances, allowing a total of 8 hits.
Tuesday night's game was a pitchers' duel, broken open with a late run against the Phillies' bullpen.  I expect a similar result on Wednesday.  Take the Cubs on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Phillies are hoping for one of the three Wild Card spots in the National League, but have not helped themselves recently by losing 7 of 10. Now all but one of those seven losses came at the hands of the Braves, who are one of the best teams in baseball. But the team Philly is facing now swept them back in July and I see an excellent opportunity to back the Cubs +1.5 at home in the series opener.

The Cubs have won five of their last six games, so they come in as the hotter team. When they went to Philly two months ago, they ended up outscoring the Phillies 25-7 in the three-game sweep. Now they get them at home. The Phillies have not been a good road team in 2022, especially of late, dropping 12 of 17 and four straight away from home. 

Cubs’ starting pitching has the third lowest ERA (3.15) in MLB since the All Star Break. Marcus Stroman is on the hill tonight and looking to make it three consecutive quality starts. Against Miami and Colorado, Stroman allowed just four runs and eight hits in 13 innings. He’s pitched better than his record shows with a 3.80 ERA and 1.162 WHIP and has a 2.49 career ERA against the Phillies. 

Meanwhile, Zach Wheeler hasn’t been great for Philadelphia recently, posting a 5.87 ERA and 1.37 WHIP his last three starts. It may be a short leash tonight as Wheeler only worked four innings last Wednesday in his first start in almost a month after being bothered with a forearm issue.

Give me the Cubs on the run line tonight as they’ve already proven they can dominate the Phillies and are in better form entering this series. 10*

Cleveland has really turned it on down the home stretch, winning 18 of its last 21 games including seven straight. They’ve clinched the AL Central, which makes it four pennants in Terry Francona’s time here as well as six playoff appearances in 10 years. Each of the last seven Guardians’ victories have been by at least two runs. They’ve outscored the opposition 53-24.

Tampa Bay is trying to get into the playoffs themselves. They appear safe with a 3.5 game cushion for one of the three Wild Card spots. But what started as a promising weekend in Toronto, with two wins where they scored 10 runs each game, ended poorly for the Rays as they lost both Saturday and Sunday. 

Tuesday’s pitching matchup features a pair of hurlers that both won a Cy Young for Cleveland. Shane Bieber is still pitching for the Guardians and thriving with a 1.64 ERA and 0.773 WHIP his past three starts. But former teammate Corey Kluber has been struggling for the Rays, posting a 7.42 ERA and 1.799 WHIP over his last three starts.

Kluber did have a nice outing last week vs. Houston, but the team still lost. The Rays are 0-3 in Kluber’s last three starts while the Guardians are 4-0 in Bieber’s last four. Bieber is simply the superior starter in this matchup.

Tough to like Tampa on the road where they’ve gone 2-8 this year as a dog of +125 to +175. Cleveland is 20-8 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Cheap price on the home team in this one. 9*

The 1-1 Cowboys face off with the 2-0 Giants in a highly touted MNF game. Sorry Giants, but I am not sure that 3-0 is a real possibility. First off, I am not sold on Jones nor the Giants ability to protect him on Monday. Jones was well under 200 yds passing, with very short yds/comp and was sacked multiple time. This against 2 relatively poor pass attacks. The Cowboys’ pass defense has been formidable, top 5 in most categories, and a passer nightmare in both games. The Giants also saw the run game (Barkley) fall off significantly in week two after a fine and much publicized effort in Week one against a weak defense. The Cowboys’ rush defense was much better in week two, holding Mixon and the Bengals to 89 yards.

On defense the Giants have not really impressed. The run defense struggled against the Titans as expected but allowed nearly 120 yds against Carolina. They are 30th in yards per completion, again vs. two sub-par passers.

Perhaps the biggest question in this game surrounds the Dallas offense after the loss of Prescott. The Cowboys have a very good two pronged running attack. Rush threw for more yards and had a higher passer rating than Jones in week two. He has been well protected and has brilliant targets available. Even with injury returns, the Giants will likely struggle to get to Rush this week. The rest of the Dallas team will have Rush in about in as good a position to succeed as could be hoped for.

The Giants are a small favorite. Take the Cowboys to steal this one on the road.

The Red Sox, thrashed by the Yankees, face another AL East foe at home.  Seabold, a recent call up is on the mound in game one of the series.  He has bounced around this season with four starts under his belt, 3 of them very poor and short.  He has been hit extremely hard to date.   Don't look for much support from the Red Sox' bullpen.  We will likely see a lot of it on Monday, and that is not a good thing.

Lyles starts for the Orioles.  He has had mixed results lately, pitching a fine complete game 1 run effort against Detroit last timeout, but struggling in his previous 2 appearances.  I never like backing a pitcher after a complete game, especially one accustomed to shorter starts.  The Red Sox have had his number this year.  In the last two times they faced him, they have hit him hard and often.  He has given up far more runs than innings pitched against the Sox.

The total is high but the setting is Fenway and the wind is forecast to be blowing out.  That could be exactly what this game will be- a blow out. Both teams can hit, and the opportunities should be there for the taking.  The Sox will be in a nasty mood after their lack of success in recent games, and the Orioles are still (sort of) in the wild card race.  It could be all out offense. Take this game to go over.

The Falcons have held their own against 2 tough opponents, scoring 26 and 27 points and covering in both games.  They have a solid rush offense to date, and Mariota has put them in a position to win both games.  The 1-1 Seahawks were lucky to win their first game and lost badly last week.  They are close to the bottom in many offensive categories, including time of possession and points scored.  They have no run game to speak of.  Geno Smith has been accurate but unable to generate points or yards.
Neither team has defended well against the pass.  Seattle has given up big yards against the run.  Home team or not, I just can't Seattle generating  enough points or defending well enough against a fairly dynamic Falcons offense.  Take the Falcons to steal this one.  9*!

The 5-5 Marlins have been tough against the Nationals in Miami for some time, have won two straight against the Nats,  and are a surprisingly big favorite today.  The Nationals have struggled lately at just 3-7.  Right handed veteran Sanchez starts for Washington.  While his record may not show it, he has pitched well lately, with an ERA of 2.10 over his last 7 games.  He faced Miami in his last start, giving up just 2 runs over 6 innings, and has a road ERA of 2 runs less this season.

He faces another right-hander, Miami's Cabrera. Cabrera is 6-3 for the season, but has not been quite as sharp, with a worse ERA than Sanchez's at 3.49 L7.  He hasn't pitched past the fifth lately and has also given up 5 home runs in his last 4 starts.

Both teams have been getting very good relief pitching; the Nationals pen has oddly been better than Maimi's.  The Marlins have been hitting better just lately, but are generally a poor bet against a righty.  The odds seem very high for weak team like Miami.  The Nationals took two of three from the Marlins in their home series.  Take Washington on the run line today at + 1 1/2.

It was just the one quarter... Like the old joke, the Ravens’ 4th quarter soured a fine game from Lamar Jackson. And yes, the Patriots’ won last week, but against a Steelers team with not much of an offense. The Patriots do not have the receivers, nor can Jones run and gun with Jackson. Not to mention, the Ravens blitz and Jones is very susceptible. Both teams have been solid vs. the run, but NE hasn’t faced a QB who can scramble like Jackson. The Ravens lack of rushing offense, other than Jackson, is a concern, but that may change today.  New England does have two solid running backs.

Jackson’s QB rating is right up there, Jones is 18th. Jackson has thrown just 1 interception; Jones 2. Neither passer was sacked last game. NE may be missing their top receiver in this game, a situation they can ill afford.

I am wagering on the Ravens this week and expect them to bounce back from their ugly loss in week two.  I also expect the Ravens' defense to be on their very best behavior and make the necessary adjustments, and had success backing the Browns' defense to respond this week.  Jones has yet to prove himself this year; Jackson will be the game breaker.  The line has dropped below a field goal.  Jump on the Ravens to win and cover.

The 2-0 Chiefs face a struggling Colts team in Indianapolis on Sunday. The Colts game in week two could hardly have gone worse, but the line has drifted in the Colts’ favor. I am unsure why. KC and Patrick Mahomes have looked very good in their opening two games. Mahomes has adapted comfortably to his new circumstances, and we are seeing some timely running from this pass-centric offense. Mahomes has had great protection, hasn’t thrown an interception, and has a monster QB rating.

The Colts’ offense has been a shambles, and were shut out last week. Taylor only carried the ball 9 times, which is incomprehensible. Ryan does not look settled, and has been very poor under pressure, of which there has been lots as the Colts’ O-line has struggled. Ryan threw 3 interceptions, was sacked multiple times, and ended with a miserable 34 passer rating. He may benefit from the return of a quality target, but that is still an unknown.

Kc did not defend well vs the pass last week but faced a much tougher opponent in the Chargers. They have been more successful applying pressure to the passer than the Colts, but haven’t faced a top running back like Taylor this year, so will need to work to contain him.

The Colts would have to make a huge adjustment to come within a TD of the Chiefs and there really is no sign of that in week three. To add to their problems, the Colts will miss a pair of key people on defense this week. I am on KC to win and cover on the road on Sunday.

The Eagles collectively improved from week 1, and manhandled the Vikings in a complete game winning effort. Hurts looked poised and produced in the air and, of course, on the ground. The Eagles’ running game is on fire with Sanders averaging 88 yds a game and 5.9 yds/carry. Hurts has “chipped in” with 147 yards to date, ahead of all passers. On defense, they limited the Vikings’ run game to 62 yds and all but shut down the highly touted Jefferson in the air. The Vikings’ offense was on the field less than 40% of the time.

The Commanders lost to Detroit, but Wentz made it interesting in the second half. He has thrown for over 300 yards in the first two games, but also had 3 interceptions and was sacked 6 times to date. Wentz had better be good as Washington has had no appreciable running game to date. The Commanders’ defense has struggled against the run, at or near the bottom in yds and yds/carry, and giving up 191 yards to the Lions last week. They’ve also given up considerably more yards in the air than the Eagles.

I am big on the Eagles this year, but was concerned with their defensive play in Week one. Week two showed real improvement against a possible play-off team. There is much talk about a revenge game for Wentz this week. That sentiment goes both ways as Russell Wilson found out in his first game back in Seattle. Take the Eagles to win and cover. 9*!

This is a massive letdown spot for #18 Washington, who beat Michigan State 39-28 last week to move into the polls. The Huskies were an unranked favorite over a Top 25 team in that game. They are one of just five schools to be 3-0 ATS and favored in every game.

Now they’re laying double digits to a conference rival.

Following a loss to USC, Stanford had last week off. Going back to last year, the Cardinal haven’t covered a spread in nine consecutive games, tying them with Colorado State for the longest streak in the nation. But a bye week coupled with the fact they played USC tougher than you might think, have me believing they will stay inside the number this week.

Stanford is 5-1 straight up vs. Washington when the Huskies are ranked in the Top 25. I know that QB Michael Penix Jr (transfer from Indiana) has been a difference-maker for UW, but this spread seems too high after a marquee win like the one the team had last week. I’m not THAT sold on the Huskies just yet.

As for Stanford, after a bye, they figure to go “all out” in this game as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Pac 12 play. The spread is up to two touchdowns and I just do not see the favorite winning by that kind of margin. Washington is only 2-9 ATS its last 11 conference games and 3-7 ATS the last 10 times it has been off a straight up win. 10*

The current 40.5-point spread for this game, if it holds, would be the largest for any SEC game going back to 1996. I have no interest in playing the spread, but the total did jump out to me.

Vanderbilt is 4-0 to the Over this year, starting with a 63-10 win over Hawaii. From there, the Commodores have beaten Elon 42-31, lost to Wake Forest 45-25 and then bounced back last week with a 38-28 come from behind win over Northern Illinois.

The Commies are putting up 42.0 points/game. Tonight in Tuscaloosa, they won’t even put up half that number.

The Alabama defense that Vandy is running into Saturday has allowed just 26 points - total - in three games and 19 of that came from Texas, a game that was played in Austin. 

The last two times these teams met, Vandy was shut out both times. Granted, those games were played in 2011 and 2017, but it’s not like the talent discrepancy has gotten any closer. Look for the Crimson Tide to completely shut down the Vanderbilt offense and not hang 50+ themselves. Nick Saban and the coaching staff, no matter what they say publicly, care far more about next week’s game at Arkansas. 10*

Over the last two weeks, both of these teams have been involved in a game that went Over the total, but shouldn’t have.

Two weeks ago Houston faced Texas Tech. The game went to overtime tied 20-20. That was after Texas Tech kicked the game-tying FG with three seconds left. From there, both offenses got on track and it ended up being a 33-30 final (Houston lost), just clearing the O/U line of 62.5. 

Last week, Rice upset Louisiana 33-21 as an 11.5 point home underdog. The total closed at 52. If not for an early pick-six by Louisiana, that game would not have gone Over. Rice’s defense played shockingly well, holding the Ragin Cajuns to 175 total yards and just nine first downs. One of the other Louisiana touchdowns came about after a turnover that set them up inside the red zone.

The Owls offense had a lot of big plays in that game and I do not think they’ll be able to hit those with such great frequency this week. Also, Houston shouldn’t have given up 48 points last week to Kansas. Two of the Jayhawks’ touchdown drives began inside the UH 25-yard line.

Even though the Over is a combined 6-0 for these two squads in 2022, the market is expecting the opposite result this week. So am I. Even with the number coming down several points, Under is the play here. 10* 

Atlanta swept the Phillies last week and it appears the Phillies are repaying the favor this week, now up 2-0 in their home series. The Braves’ usually overpowering bats have cooled off, but their pitching other than on Friday has been excellent. Atlanta is one of the best teams against left-handed pitching. Atlanta is usually very good off a loss. Off three straight losses, I expect a bounce back win from the Braves, getting Kyle Wright his 20th win of the season. Wright is a cool 6-0 in his last 7 games, with an ERA of 3.05. He has given up just 3 runs in his last 2 games after a debacle of a start against the A’s, his worst of the season.

Wright faces Brady Falter, who has been dynamite down the stretch, winning 5 games and with a 2.45 ERA over his last 7 starts. He stymied the Braves, allowing 1 run over 5 innings in his last start and the Phillies still lost. Falters’ starts are usually of the 5 inning variety and he has not been as strong at home this season.

The Phillies are just 9-9 in September and just over .500 vs right-handers. Their bullpen has been an issue of late with an ERA approaching seven, and may prove to be the difference on Saturday. Take the Braves to bounce back and win.

Few are going to give Maryland any shot of pulling the upset Saturday in Ann Arbor, even though the Terrapins come in at 3-0. It has not been a good run against Michigan the last several years with the Terps both losing and failing to cover each of the last six meetings.

Maryland did have a nice win last week (at home) against SMU. So it’s not like they haven’t played anyone. The same cannot be said for Michigan who has faced three of the worst teams in the country, Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut. Give the Wolverines credit for winning those three games by a combined score of 166-17. But they were also favored to win the three games by 132 points. All three lines were -31 or higher with the last two averaging -50.5! 

I know that Maryland was a bit lucky to get the win last week over SMU. But I think they’ve got the goods to stay within 17 this week. QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 77 percent of his passes and has accounted for seven touchdowns. This will quite obviously be the best offense Michigan has faced thus far. 

So let’s see how Michigan does once they actually “get punched in the mouth.” My view is that the weak non-conference slate did wonders for “stat-padding.” However, the team is likely now overconfident as they hit the Big 10 slate. The Wolverines are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  10*

UTEP isn’t going to get a lot of love from bettors here, especially with the Miners coming in at 0-4 ATS. But the Boise State team that comes to El Paso Friday night just isn’t as strong as we’re used to seeing. In their only “real” test thus far, the Broncos got run off the field in an embarrassing first half showing at Oregon State, a game they’d go on to lose 34-17.

Now Boise has bounced back with a couple of wins, over New Mexico and Tenn Martin, but that doesn’t convince me they are worthy of laying double digits on the road. The Broncos are 0-2-1 ATS in 2022 and pushed two weeks ago with a similar spread at New Mexico. I realize that UTEP just lost to New Mexico - by 17 - last week. But they turned it over SEVEN times in that game, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD. 

The UTEP defense has not been bad the last two games, giving up 313 total yards to New Mexico State and just 299 to New Mexico. Yes, those are two bad teams, but Boise State’s offense just isn’t what it used to be. Broncos QB Hank Bachmeier has been inconsistent and was shaken up in last week’s game. On other side of the ball, two starters in the Boise secondary also got hurt last week. So there may be hope for a couple of big plays in the passing game from this UTEP offense after all.

Boise State’s offense seems content to play “slower” compared to years’ past, so I do not see them running away with this game. For the record, the Broncos are 2-10 ATS following a straight up win, 0-5 if that win was by more than 20 points. Also, they could be looking ahead to next week’s game at San Diego State

For UTEP, this game will be treated as “their Super Bowl.” It’s a rare national TV game (CBS Sports) on a Friday night against a fairly marquee opponent. I had success with an "ugly dog" last Friday (Wyoming), so grab those points again. 9*

It’s back to back Friday night games for Air Force, who lost outright last week, on the road to Wyoming by a score of 17-14. As I did note in my analysis for that game, the Falcons’ high-powered rushing attack had been stymied in the past by Wyoming. It was “deja vu all over again” as AF ran for just 171 yards on 40 attempts in Laramie where they are now 0-4 L4 visits.

This week’s opponent, Nevada, has also played AF “tough” in the past as well. While the Falcons have the 4-2 SU edge as Mt West rivals, the last five meetings have all been one-score games with four of those decided by three points or less. Last year’s game went to OT with Air Force winning 41-39.

I think that after the debacle against Wyoming last week, the Air Force offense gets back on track here. Let’s not forget that the Falcons scored 89 points in their first two games of the season or that they have gone for 40+ in five of those last six games against Nevada.

And while Nevada has been a tough opponent for AF in the past, the Wolf Pack aren’t very good this year. The defense is young and most of the players on the field don’t have much experience defending the triple option. This is a Nevada defense that gave up 55 points to Incarnate Word, a FCS school, two weeks ago. 

With a low total and me looking for AF to put a lot of points on the board, I’m looking for this game to go Over. Nevada being shut out last week at Iowa was a case of facing a great defense. In their previous two games, the Wolf Pack had scored 79 points. I’d much rather bet the Over than lay the points in this game. The O/U line has been bet down and I’m seeing value at the current number. 10*

The young upstart Orioles knocked off the Astros, something very few teams have been able to do. The Orioles have been a good home team this season, and have one of their better starters on the mound. Kremer has been very sharp, going 3-1, 2.79 in his last 7 games. He faced Houston in late August, pitching 7+ innings and allowing just 1 run on 4 hits.

The Astros have looked nearly unbeatable, but have clinched, so the pressure is off. Urquidy starts on Friday and he has been struggling in his last 2 starts, giving up more than a run an inning to the A’s and Angels. Urquidy faced the Orioles in Late August and was out-dueled by Kremer, giving up 3 runs over 5 innings.

Can the Orioles knock off the Astros two straight? Their bats had been slumping but they have been hitting right-handers well of late. Their bullpen, dependable all year, had also been slipping but has bounced back recently. The Astros have been doing most things right, good offense and superlative relief pitching, but can still be stymied by strong pitching. Take the Orioles on the run line at +1 ½.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have split their series to date and send out a pair of excellent starters to decide matters today. Left hander Urias is 6-1 1.47 in his last 7 games, and has given up just 4 runs over 19 innings in his last three appearances. Galen has an even better ERA over his last 7 games.  The only time he faced the Dodgers was in April, when he shut them out over 6 innings.

The Diamondbacks struggle against left handed pitching.  4 of 5 Dodgers games and 5 of 6 D-backs last games have all gone under.  The under is also 9-1 in the last 10 when these two teams meet. I am looking for that trend to continue.  Take the under again today.

Thursday Night Football brings you an odd match-up this week featuring a team that can’t score vs a team the apparently can’t defend. We have heard about the Browns’ defensive debacle endlessly, but there were high points in that game for the Browns. Jacoby Brissett looked pretty good, and significantly better than the previous week. He was accurate, threw for 221 yds, had a passer rating of 98.5, and was protected well by the Browns’ O line. The Browns’ rush attack was overpowering, and is first in the league, with 184 yds last week and a potent two pronged attack from Chubb and Hunt. The Steelers have yet to face a good running team, but are still 23rd in yards allowed. They are also 30th in passing yards allowed, still missing Watt, and had zero sacks last week.

The Browns are missing key people on defense, which will make a difference, but less so against the Steelers. Trubisky has not been effective, and if anything was worse last week. He is 28th in passing yards, and 26th in QB rating. He was sacked three times last week and has not looked good handling pressure. The Steelers have not mounted a real run game yet, which leads one to wonder what have they been doing on offense? They haven’t had the ball much is the correct response, and are 30th in offensive time of possession.

I expect Cleveland to run up some points, and the defense to be on their best behavior, especially at home. Take the Browns to win and cover.

Coastal Carolina is 3-0, but it’s a shaky 3-0 as they barely escaped both Gardner-Webb and Buffalo. Even though QB Grayson McCall is still here and the offense is averaging 35.7 points/game, it has been nowhere near as efficient as the last two seasons. The Chanticleers are operating at a pretty slow tempo and have just five passing plays that have gone for more than 30 yards.

Georgia State is 0-3, but this is probably the best team in America without a win. Lots of miscues have cost them games against South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte. In the first two, the Panthers were underdogs, so you can make the case they weren’t expected to win. But against Charlotte, they were favored by almost three touchdowns. 

In the loss to South Carolina, Georgia State had two special teams touchdowns go against them. Both were blocked punts. North Carolina is team that put up 60+ points against Appalachian State, so holding them to “just 35” isn’t all that bad for the Panthers’ defense. I don’t know what happened last week vs. Charlotte, other than it was a sandwich spot between two games against Power 5 opponents and this, the Sun Belt opener. But still, Georgia State should not have lost last week.

There was also a fumble return for a TD by Charlotte. So that’s three non-offensive TD’s allowed by Georgia State in three games. I’ll make the case then that the defensive numbers are not as bad as they look. 

Coastal Carolina is not running the ball as effectively as they have in years past. This is the first road game for the Chanticleers and I expect the offense to struggle. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. Georgia State is 4-1 to the Under its last five home games. Play the Under. 10*

The Pirates will be glad to get off the road after being swept by the Mets, and pummeled by the Yankees. They are up against the Cubs, and the pair of teams are underachieving on offense. The Pirates’ bullpen was also savaged by the Yankees. Keller starts for the Pirates and has an ERA of 3.50 over his last 7 games. He has thrown 4 straight quality starts, all 6 innings or over with 2 shutouts mixed in, but the Pirates have only won 2 of those starts. Don’t count on much support from the Pirates’ relievers today. They have walked off the plank with regularity lately.

The Cubs are 5-5 lately and haven’t scored a ton of runs, but they are hitting right handers better than the Pirates. Their pitching, both the starters and relievers, has been solid of late. Rookie Wesneski starts for the second time. This youngster has great stuff and rolled off 7 innings of 1 run 7 strikeout ball in Colorado in his first start. I don’t usually bank on rookies until proven, but the combination of Wesneski and a better bullpen should sway the game in the Cubs’ favor today. Take the underdog Cubs to win on the road.

The 9-1 Astros have clinched but don’t appear to have taken their foot off the gas, shutting out the Rays in two straight road games. They are the best hitting team in the league over the last 2 weeks, and don’t give up many runs. Their run differential over the last 7 games is a remarkable 5.3/1.9.

After 2 straight losses, the 6-4 Rays are desperate for a win, but that outcome is uncertain as they face yet a third excellent Astros’ starter. McCullers Jr. has only 6 starts this year, and while he has yet to give up more than 3 runs, he is really just rounding into top shape now. He struck out 11 in his last start and has given up 2 or less runs in his last 4 appearances.

Standing between the Rays and the broom is veteran Kluber. He has had some quality starts, but certainly not his last two, and there have been more than a few poor outings this year. The Rays have not hit well in recent weeks, and have a run differential of 3.6/3.1. Their bullpen is good as usual, but is overworked, and can’t compare at the moment to the Astros’ with a 1.29 ERA over the last 10 games.

If this were any other year, I would be on the Rays to bounce back, but they are not quite their usual irritating selves. Take advantage of very decent odds and wager on the Astros today.

After being swept by the Cubs, the Mets got a wake-up call and have reeled off 5 straight wins, the last two against the home town Brewers. NY hasn’t had much success vs the Brewers until this series. They are a very good road team, great vs right handers and top of the heap in offense lately. The Brewers are just 9-9 in September and are giving up more runs than expected for a team built on pitching. Houser starts for the Brew Crew on Wednesday. While 2 of 3 of his last starts were very good, he gave up 4 runs over 3 innings in his last start, and has been all over the map since a recall from the IL in late August.

He faces Walker, who has had a solid season for the Mets, but considering the state of the Mets’ starting pitching, will need to press down the stretch just to make the play-off roster. Walker usually pitches late into the game, and is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.25 in his last 7 starts.

The Mets have a great run differential lately, and a lights-out bullpen. The Brewers’ relief corps has been heavily used and hit hard. I am on the Mets to win on Wednesday although it may be close early. Mets to win outright. 9*!

The Mariners lost three straight before bouncing back in a big way against the Angels. They move to Oakland where they have a 10-2 record. They are usually a very good road team, and have an excellent starter on the mound on Tuesday. Castillo was a great pick-up for the M’s, and has been especially sharp lately with 2 shut-outs and a 1.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. He had an off day vs the A’s the last time he faced them, and is a very good bet for a bounce back.

The A’s are a poor home team and just 4-12 in September. They have given up plenty of runs and really struggle against a quality starter. JP Sears is on the mound. He had a good run when first moving to Oakland, but has fallen on hard times in his last two short and poor starts. Sears will get little support from a roughed up A’s bullpen.

The Mariners aren’t hitting for avg. but their power figures are good lately. The A’s aren’t hitting at all.

The A’s can occasionally surprise someone, but the Mariners are in tough in a pennant race and will be motivated on Tuesday. Take the Mariners on the run line.  9*!

The Angels and Rangers have been equals in futility this year but the Angels have looked better in September at 7-8 compared to 5-12. LA took an impressive 3 of 4 against Seattle, with some solid pitching in a couple of those starts. Left hander Sandoval is on the mound on Tuesday. He has been a very solid starter for some time and has an ERA of 1.69 in his last 7 starts. He has been giving up a few more hits, but just 5 runs in his last 3 starts. Sandoval has been better on the road this season. While they struggled last night, the Angels’ bullpen has had some solid outings lately.

The Rangers are 4-6 and their bats have cooled off after a good offensive run. Rookie left hander Ragans has just 6 starts to date, and just 2 since returning from a brief IL stint. He blanked Houston over just 3 innings in his first start back but then was shelled by Oakland, allowing 7 earned runs over 4 innings. Don’t expect any length from Ragans on Tuesday.

I am on the Angels in this game. Sandoval has impressed, and is due some run support. The Angels have been hitting better lately and have a real opportunity to run up the score against Ragans. Take the Angels to win outright.

The Vikings off a hug win against the Packers, looked solid on both offense and defense. Admittedly this was not a vintage game from Rogers, but give the Vikings some credit; they sacked him 4 times, and held Rogers to a 74.7 QB rating. On offense, Cousins, Jefferson, and Cook all looked terrific. Cousins was accurate, and ran up 269 passing yds with 2 TDs and a 118 QB rating.

The Eagles put up a bunch of points but were hardly in control against a team much weaker than the Vikings. Hurts struggled in the air but was a force on the ground. The Eagles’ run game is a force to be reckoned with, and it isn’t just Hurts. The Eagles have a very good offensive line, and a solid running back in Sanders. The Eagles cannot afford to expose Hurts to the same degree very often.

The Eagles’ defense was a concern. They were just OK vs. Gough and the pass, but were very poor vs. the run. As talented as it is the defense is, did not look composed or effective. Can they improve significantly in a week? It seems a tall order. I like the Eagles this year, but just not yet. Take the Vikings to cover.

The Twins finally snapped their long losing streak here in Cleveland by winning Sunday, 3-0. Their season remains very much “on the brink” however, as they still trail the Guardians by six games in the Central. Today’s finale is pretty much “must win” for the road team (as are the rest of their games). I’ll be backing them.

The six-game edge Cleveland currently enjoys over Minnesota is a straight byproduct of a 12-6 record in head to head matchups. Other than that, the teams profile as being pretty evenly matched. They have similar run differentials. But I like the spot for the Twins, who are 8-5 coming off a shutout win while the Guardians are 3-6 after being shutout in their previous game. 

Cleveland’s record at Progressive Field also isn’t that great. They’ve actually allowed more runs than they’ve scored here.

I’m aware that CLE starter Quantrill has not had a losing decision at home in quite some time (last year!) But the Twins’ Sonny Gray, who has a 1.81 ERA since the All-Star Break, is the better pitcher in Monday’s matchup. In 9 of his last 10 starts, Gray has given up two runs or less.

The Guardians don’t have a very strong lineup - they average just 3.9 runs/game at home - so expect Gray to dominate this afternoon. There could be a rain delay, but when the teams take to the field, it will be the Twins coming out ahead. 10*

The Reds have lost 3 straight against the Cardinals, aren't hitting, and are just 6-11 in September.  They are a very poor road underdog, and struggle against left-handed pitching.  Their starter Cessa was hit hard in his last appearance, but has otherwise been average with short starts.
The Cardinals are 11-5 in September and tough to beat at home.  Lefty Jordan Montgomery struggled for the first time since becoming a Cardinal, but is a very good bet to bounce back today.  He is 4-1, with an ERA of 2.28 in his last 7 starts  The Reds have yet to face Montgomery.
The Reds are giving up twice as many runs as they score lately and have had some lopsided losses.  The odds strongly favor the Cardinals, and with Montgomery on the mound and that lights' out pen, I will take them on the run line.

Looking the Patriots and Steelers in week one, there was no joy to be seen, other than the Steelers’ pass defense. They were full marks for a 7 sack, 5 turnover day. And it wasn’t just Watt who excelled, although he will be sorely missed on Sunday. The Patriots’ run defense was also effective, limiting the Dolphins to 65 yards and 2.8 yds a carry. Their pass defense did manage 3 sacks.

Neither quarterback impressed at all. Jones’ accuracy was ok but he also missed relievers badly at very critical moments. He was sacked twice and threw 1 interception. Trubinsky shouldn’t even attempt a long game. He wasn’t intercepted because he consistently overthrew his receivers, had just a 55 % completion rate and looked uncomfortable under pressure. He will likely see more pressure on Sunday.

The two teams were 26th and 27th in total yards on offense last week, with a negligible and unsuccessful running game. Both teams finished under 80 total yards rushing and an average of 3.5 and 3.4 yds per carry.

Where are the points going to come from on Sunday? New England only managed 7 in week one, and the Steelers’ defense accounted for most of the Steelers’ field position and 7 of their points. The answer about points is they aren’t coming, or not very many of them. Take the Patriots and Steelers to go under.

The Ravens won easily last week, but it wasn’t the most inspiring of wins. While they limited the Jets’ running game, they allowed Flacco a ton of passing yards. They did sack him three times and pressured him frequently. On offense they took advantage of good field position. Jackson threw for 3 touchdowns, but just 211 yards. He was sacked twice. The Ravens rushed for just 63 yards, and 3 yds per carry with minimal yards from Jackson himself.

The Dolphins rolled over the Patriots, with a fine first outing from Tua and his top two receivers. It was all in the air, as the Dolphins ran for just 78 yards, no TDs and five first downs. The defense pretty well shut down the Patriots’ attack allowing just 270 total yards and 1 TD.

The Dolphins love to blitz and thoroughly disrupted the Ravens’ offense in their meeting last year. Expect more of the same tactic until it is proven unsuccessful. Obviously the Ravens have had lots of time to develop a better strategy, but Jackson can expect plenty of pressure this week.

The Dolphins are expected to be a very good defensive team this year. They won’t have to worry about much of a run game from Miami considering last week’s performance. They should pressure Tua much more than he was last week, although the number of yards given up to Flacco is disconcerting. The Dolphins have the injury bug with their offensive line., making the Ravens’ job slightly easier.

It is hard to pick a clear victor so I am looking to the total. This could be more of a defensive battle than might be expected. Take the total to go under. 9*!

Utah is out for revenge Saturday night in Salt Lake City, facing a San Diego State team that defeated them, 33-31 as eight-point underdogs, last season. The Utes are much bigger favorites this time, but I think the Aztecs keep it close. 

The bloom is off the rose a bit for SDSU as they lost 38-20 at home to Arizona in the opener. But they came back to beat Idaho State 38-7 last week. A well-coached team like this, that can run the football effectively, should be able to control the clock and stay within the generous number.

Let’s not forget Utah lost to Florida. Florida is obviously much better than SDSU, but the Utes defense did allow 451 yards in that game. 

I think that the revenge angle has inflated this line. Utah is also just 2-11 ATS in the month of September, not to mention 1-4 ATS following a straight up win of more than 20 points and 2-7 ATS its last nine non-conference games. 

And this is a spot where San Diego State typically steps it up. They are 5-1 ATS their last six games vs. Top 25 teams. Going back to 2016, they sport a 13-5 record vs. the number when catching points. 10*

The Over is 2-0 for Houston football this season with an average of 67.5 points scored in the two games. But this is highly misleading. There have been five overtimes in the two games, a 37-35 win at UTSA and a 33-30 loss at Texas Tech.

This week the Cougars open the home schedule against a Kansas team that is off a couple of strong offensive showings. Can’t remember the last time the Jayhawks have posted back to back 50+ point efforts, but that’s the situation here. Again though, it’s a little misleading. 

It was a very rare two touchdowns in OT from Kansas last week. After they scored to take the 49-42 lead, they returned an INT for a TD to make it 55. That was after WVU forced OT with a TD in the final minute of regulation.

The Houston-Texas Tech game probably shouldn’t have gone to OT either. The Cougars returned an INT for a TD in the fourth quarter, then each team made a FG in the final minute of regulation.

With both teams coming off games that ended up “misleadingly” high-scoring, I’ll back the Under here. Even with five overtimes, the Houston offense is only averaging 350 yards per game. The Kansas offense certainly won’t continue putting up the kinds of numbers we’ve seen in the first two games. 10*

The Jays, off a home win, face the Orioles in game two of their series. The Jays are a good home team especially in the second half. They are 11-4 in September, very tough on right-handers, and hitting for both average and power recently. Berrios, Saturday’s starter has been an enigma this year, but he has been much better lately and very good at home this year. Even with Berrios’ inflated ERA, the Jays win when he is on the mound.

The over-achieving Orioles have struggled against the other AL East teams lately and have slipped out of a wild card spot. They are below .500 on the road and against right-handed pitching. They aren’t hitting especially well and their bullpen is struggling. Saturday’s starter is rookie right-hander Bradich. He has had an excellent 2nd half, but gave up 3 runs and 6 hits over 3 innings to the Jays just two starts ago. The Jays have seen a lot of Bradich this year, with good success; 6 of their lineup are hitting .333 or better against him.

The Jays are streaking in a good way lately, and can be very tough after some good looks at a pitcher. With 4 games against Bradich already, I like them to hit him hard again. They are a middling favorite on Saturday. Take the Jays to win outright. 9*!

The second Scott Frost was fired, bettors started piling on Nebraska, who is a home dog for this Noon ET matchup against #6 Oklahoma. I agree with the line move and will be taking the points.

Nebraska may be 0-3 ATS, 1-2 SU, but Frost is gone and the Cornhuskers have actually been pretty good as an underdog in recent years (12-8-1 ATS). Last year, they easily covered as 22-point dogs in Norman, losing by just seven points to OU.

The Sooners did win 33-3 last week, but that’s a little misleading when you consider they were down 3-0 to Kent State with under a minute to go in the first half. Just because they were able to pile it on in the second half there doesn’t mean they can do the same here.

Interim coach Mickey Joseph should have the Blackshirts fired up and ready to go Saturday morning. I just can’t see the home team being blown out here and remember no team has lost more close games the last few seasons than Nebraska has. All we are asking for here is for them to keep it close.

The offense seems just fine in Lincoln, averaging 36 points/game. Oklahoma has yet to face a good offense this year. I also wouldn’t be so certain that the Sooners can make it three straight games without a turnover. Grab the points. 9*

The Mariners face the Angels today, and are hoping to keep pace in the very close ALwild card. They are 8-4 in September, a very good road team, especially as a road favorite, and have had their way with the Angels this year. Lefty Robbie Ray starts for Seattle. After 2 straight shut outs, he gave up 4 runs against the Braves in his last start. Ray absolutely sparkled in August and is a good bet to bounce back . He has faced the Angels twice this year, with a pair of 7 inning 1 run outings to show.

The Angels are 3-9 as a home underdog, and 4-8 in September. They have a poor runs scored to runs allowed ratio lately at 3.6/5.0. Lorenzen is just back from a very long stay on the IL and opened with a solid start vs. the Astros. The Mariners have had good success against Lorenzen this year.

The Mariners are hitting better for power lately and should Ray need it, very good support from their stellar bullpen. The Angels struggle against left-handed pitching. Take Ray and the Mariners to get back on track with a road victory today. 9*!