The set-up: Miami opens its NFL preseason with two straight on the road. With the important Week 3 match-up in their first game at home in Week 3, I do expect the Dolphins to simply go through the motions tonight as they get caught looking ahead.

The teams: Miami threw everything it had at Tampa Bay in Week 1 and still came up short in the 26-24 setback. David Fales and Brock Osweiler combined to go 18 of 32 for 198 yards, no TD’s or INT’s. Ryan Tannehill went 4 of 6 for 32 yards.

The Panthers beat the Bills 28-23 on the road last week and I think they carry that momentum and confidence over into their home opener. Backup QB Garrett Gilbert was 7 of 12 for 93 yards a TD, while Taylor Heinicke was 7 of 9 for 121 yards. Cam Newton looked good in his limited time as well, going 6 of 9 for 84 yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Miami is now 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the short points.

The set-up: Both teams comes in at 0-1 SU/ATS after Week 1. The Falcons will be particularly eager to atone after their 17-0 setback at the Jets last weekend, while the Chiefs fell 17-10 at Houston.

The teams: KC QB Patrick Mahomes was five of seven for 33 yards in last week’s loss. The Chiefs would use four QB’s last week and Chad Henne was the only one of them who was able to post a TD. Henne would hit Demarcus Robinson for the major score.

The Falcons’ backups looked poor last week, but starters on both sides of the line are expected to see more time in Week 2 at home. Matt Schaub was a bright spot in the setback by going 9 of 9.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. Expect a much better effort in Week 2 from The Dirty Birds in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors go with Noah Syndergaard on the hill, while the home side goes with Aaron Nola.

The pitchers: Syndergaard is so far 8-2 with a 3.22 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Reds on Monday. In his second start since returning from the DL he earned the victory and to go along with his respectable ERA he also owns a sharp 1.22 WHIP and 93 strikeouts over 88 frames of work.

Nola is so far 13-3 with a 2.28 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back strong outings. Nola is putting together the finest campaign of his career and he’s been unbeatable at home so far by going 8-0 with a 2.07 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 home games when the line is set between +150 and -150. This number is just a little high, play the “under.”

The set­up: This series features a couple of lop­sided mismatches on the mound, and this is one of them. In fact the talent­gap is so large in my opinion, that I do indeed feel that Clay Buchholz and the hard­hitting visitors are well worth the price of admission this evening. The home side sends Jabob Nix to the hill.

The teams: Buchholz is so far 5­2 with a 2.67 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out eight in a 9­3 victory over San Francisco on Saturday. His 8.1 K/9 rate is his best since 2015 and note that he’s 3­2 with a tiny 2.18 ERA on the road. Nix is so far 1­0 with a 0.00 ERA, who looked sharp in his debut against the Phillies on Friday. Nix was dominant in Triple­A and that momentum was carried over into his first career big­league start, but there’s no question that he faces a much stiffer test thisevening in the Diamondbacks’ potent hitting line­up.

The pick: The skies are the limit for Nix, but I think he’s in over his head here. Buchholz has been a pleasant surprise for Arizona this season and I find no reason not to believe that the veteran can’t carry over his consistency once again in this favorable match­up. Lay the price.

The set­up: It’s the AFC East vs. the NFC East at FedEx Field in Landover Maryland. I think that home field advantage will prove critical in this one. New York gets caught looking ahead to its much more important Week 3 matchup after its very satisfying 17­0 home win over Atlanta last weekend in my opinion, while Washington will be looking for a much improved performance after a 26­17 loss to New England on the road.

The teams: New York looked good in Week 1 defensively, but it was 25th in the league in yards allowed last season and 22nd in points conceded. Sam Darnold played the entire second half and he went 13 of 18 for 96 yards and a TD. Last year the Jets were 24th in scoring overall. Washington let an early 17 point lead slip away in Week 1. But Week 1of the preseason is meaningless and the Redskins looked great early and saw enough. Backup QB Colt McCoy was 13 of 18 for 189 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Note that Alex Smith didn’t see any time last week under center, but he’s set to this time around in front of the home town crowd.

The pick: Sure New York looked great at home in Week 1 of the NFLX preseason against the Falcons’ back­ups. But now it’s Week 2 on the road in the Nation’s capital on Thursday night. With Smith and some of the other offensive starters seeing some time and with backup McCoy already firing on all cylinders, I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done in the end.

The set­up: This series features a couple of interesting match­ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. All signs point to a classic “duel” and that runs will be at an extreme premium. The visitors go with ace Blake Snell, while the Yankees go with former­ace Masahiro Tanaka.

The teams: Snell is so far 13­5 with a 2.18 ERA. Snell returned tom the ten­day DL and looked sharp in a victory over the Jays last Friday. Snell will be given the green light here and have the leash taken off in the Big Apple, note that he’s a very respectable 4­2 with a 2.93 ERA in all “day” games. Tanaka is so far 9­3 with a 4.08 ERA. Tanaka comes in off a couple of strong outings and his 1.07 WHIP and 109 strikeouts over 103 innings of work suggest he’ll be able to finish the regular season on a high. Note that he’s 2­0 with a 3.80 ERA in all “day” games this season.

The pick: Snell’s been better overall than Tanaka this year, but the home side hurler catches a break in this one facing the Rays’ anemic line­up. I’m expecting these two starters to go deep into the latter innings and for this one to to fall “under” at the end of the night.

The set-up: This series features a a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. Both of these veteran starters have looked decent so far this season, but I think Hyun-Jin Ryu will find a way to get the job done here at home. The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Holland is so far 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off ten hits over 6.1 innings while striking out five and walking one in a fortunate victory over Pittsburgh on Friday. Holland has been serviceable, but he’s been shaky in all “night” games with the poor 2-7, 4.99 ERA record in such instances.

Ryu is so far 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA. He’s made two re-hab starts and he’s been cleared to go here. Over his first six starts before landing on the DL he posted the 2.12 ERA and a sharp 0.88 WHIP.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine home games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Ryu will be on a count, but I still think he’ll have more than enough to take care of the “on again, off again” Holland. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of mismatches on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. The visitors are well worth the price of admission in this spot as they hand the ball to the surging Zack Wheeler. The home side goes with Dylan Bundy.

The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 7-6 with a 3.82 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits with a walk over seven innings while striking out eight in a victory over Miami on Friday. Wheeler has now won five straight, posting a tiny 2.08 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and a sharp 34:6 K/BB spanning 34.2 frames.

Bundy is so far 7-10 with a 4.70 ERA. He most recently was shelled for eight runs over five innings in a loss to Boston on Friday. Bundy has now given up at least five earned runs in four of his last six outings, posting a terrible 7.71 ERA in the process.

The pick: Wheeler benefits from the American League format here and I believe he can carry over his considerable momentum in this favorable match-up. The Mets have struggled at the plate all season, but they catch a break facing confirmed “gas can” Bundy. Lay the price.

The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I expect these starters to get chased early and I look for this total to sneak “over” the number sooner rather than later. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios.

The pitchers: Archer is so far 4-5 with a 4.36 ERA. Archer has looked shaky since coming over from the Rays, looking decent in one start and poor in the other. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA on the road this season.

Berrios is so far 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off four hits with six walks while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Thursday. Berrios for the most part has been solid this season, but this latest effort was a step back for sure.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go “over” the number in nine of its last 14 road day games in which its an underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I think Archer’s inconsistencies come back to haunt him here, while I also believe Berrios continues to slide after his recent shaky performance. Play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the Mariners and their flame-thrower James Paxton. The home side sends Mike Fiers to the hill tonight.

The pitchers: Paxton is so far 10-5 with a 3.63 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off eight hits over seven innings in a loss to Toronto on Saturday, striking out seven and walking only one. That’s now back-to-back strong performances for Paxton and note that he’s been super solid in all “night” games with the 8-2, 3.19 ERA record to this point as well.

Fiers is so far 7-6 with a 3.40 ERA. Fiers looked admirable in his first start for his new team in a tough match-up throwing opposite Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw and he enters on a nice streak overall, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one tonight.

The pick: And that’s because the Mariners are a superb 7-2 in their last nine when on the road and the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. I think Paxton is the correct call here. Fiers is poised for a letdown and I like the hard-hitting visiting side to take advantage. Play on Seattle.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons I think that runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors go with German Marquez on the mound, while the home side goes with Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Marquez is so far 9-9 with a 4.69 ERA. He most recently struck out nine and walked two in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Tuesday, ultimately giving up two runs over seven innings. Over 122.2 frames of work, Marquez sports a sharp 129:43 K/BB and note that he’s 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA on the road to this point as well.

Verlander is so far 11-7 with a 2.50 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits and a walk while striking out 14 over eight innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Friday. It was Verlander’s third straight start and his fifth in his last six in which he’s given up two or fewer runs.

The pick: Coors Field is a difficult venue to throw in and like most, Marquez has had his difficulties there. However he’s been much better on the road and I think he carries over his momentum from his last start. And there’s also no reason not to think that Verlander won’t be focused here as well in this interesting inter-league match-up. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is one of them. I think the talent-gap is so large in fact, that it makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors go with Patrick Corbin, while the home side goes with Yovani Gallardo.

The pitchers: Corbin is so far 9-4 with a 3.15 ERA. Corbin comes in on top form, having posted back-to-back dominant efforts, posting a whopping 19 strikeouts in that span. After a small scuffling patch, Corbin is back on track and there’s no reason not to think that he can’t carry that momentum over here (note as well that he’s 3-1 with a 2.99 ERA on the road to this point.)

Gallardo is so far 7-1 with a 6.11 ERA. He most recently got a win over Baltimore on Thursday despite allowing five earned runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings. Gallardo has been terrible overall this year, having allowed multiple free-passes in six of his eight trips to the mound this season and to go along with his poor ERA, note that he also sports a sub-par 1.62 WHIP over 47 frames of work.

The pick: Corbin and the Diamondbacks are big road favorites in this one, but for good reason. Gallardo has been a disaster and I’m predicting another letdown here as well. Lay the price, play on Arizona.

The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Lynx are 2-1. Minnesota will look to take the season series here against the lowly Sky and get back on track after an 81-72 home loss to Seattle on Sunday. Chicago is simply playing out the season, as it’ll miss the playoffs.

The teams: Minnesota clinched a spot in the post-season after back-to-back road wins and it wasn’t able to carry that momentum over in the loss to the Storm. This would be considered its only “cream puff” left to end the season though, with a tough road match up in Connecticut on Friday, followed by a regular-season ending match-up at home against Washington. I think Maya Moore and company come to play today as they take into account their upcoming tougher schedule.

The Sky have lost three of their last four. They put up a valiant fight in Connecticut on Sunday, but still came away with the 82-75 setback. Chicago faces another bottom feeder in Indiana in a home and home series over the weekend, so the squad gets caught “looking ahead” here as well in my opinion.

The pick: I like Minnesota to come in focused on the task at hand and I look for it to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Lay the points.

The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of very interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons, I think that runs will be at a premium this evening. The visitors go with Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Nick Pivetta.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 14-5 with a 4.17 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off one hit while striking out nine over nine innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Yankees on Friday. Note that Porcello has been much better on the road (8-2, 3.81) than at home (6-3, 4.57) as well.

Pivetta is so far 7-9 with a 4.51 ERA. He most recently went six shutout innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Diamondbacks on Tuesday. The hard-throwing right-hander has now thrown back-to-back quality outings and note that he owns an impressive 11.1 K/9 to this point as well.

The pick: These starting pitchers come in on top form. There’s no reason not to think that they can’t carry that recent momentum over here and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Andrew Heaney, while the visitors go with Clayton Richard.

The pitchers: Heaney is so far 7-7 with a 3.96 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to the Rays on Thursday. Overall Heaney has been solid this year though and to go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns a sharp 1.13 WHIP and elite 116:32 K/BB over 112.1 frames. 

Richard is so far 7-10 with a 5.13 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off seven hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Tuesday. His numbers aren’t great and his win/loss record is indicative of that. 

The pick: Note that Richard is just 5-8 with a 5.35 ERA in all “day” games as well this season. A late west coast game in a pitcher friendly park is just what the doctor ordered for Heaney and I’m banking on Richard continuing his steady and predictable decline as the season winds down. Play on LA.

The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound absolutely makes Zack Greinke and the hard-hitting visiting the side the correct call in this inter-league match-up. The Rangers send the venerable Bartolo Colon to the hill tonight.

The pitchers: Greinke is so far 12-7 with a 2.89 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits and four walks while striking out four over seven innings against the Phillies on Tuesday. Over his last five starts spanning 35.2 frames of work Greinke has a tiny 1.26 ERA and overall he sports an elite 152:23 K/BB.

Colon is so far 6-10 with a 5.18 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out just one over seven innings in a fortunate victory over the Mariners on Tuesday. With the victory Colon became the all time Latin American wins leader. Can anyone say “letdown spot?” Note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 5.65 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 8-2 in its last ten road inter-league games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. No upsets here as I look for Greinke to come in focused and to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on Arizona.

analysis comingThe set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Mike Clevinger, while the home side goes with the erratic Homer Bailey.

The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 7-7 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off five hits while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Friday. Clevinger comes into this one with the sharp 3.48 ERA to go along with a respectable 1.22 WHIP and 139 strikeouts over 139.2 frames of work (note that Clevinger has an elite 2.69 ERA on the road as well this season.)

Bailey is so far 1-9 with a 6.19 ERA. He most recently was shelled for five runs off 11 hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Mets on Monday. Bailey has been a disaster so far this year and to go along with his atrocious ERA, he also sports a brutal 1.59 WHIP and a poor 54 strikeouts over 80 frames of work.

The pick: And note that Bailey has consistently been at his worst at home with an 0-5, 6.44 ERA record to this point in front of the home town crowd. I’m expecting Clevinger to carry over his consistent play on the road and I look for the Indians’ big bats to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: It’s hard to say anything negative about Max Scherzer, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Cubs’ newly acquired starter Cole Hamels can carry over his momentum from his debut for his new team and match his elite counterpart frame for frame. I’m banking on this one being decided late or in extra innings, meaning I’m going to grab the 1.5 runs.

The pitchers: Scherzer is so far 15-5 with a 2.28 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to Atlanta on Tuesday.

Hamels is so far 7-9 with a 4.38 ERA. He would give up one run over six innings in a win over Kansas City in his first start for the Cubs on Monday. Over his last 11 innings of work note that he’s given up just one earned run.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 8-3 in its last 11 as a home dog in the -125 to -200 range. As I stated off the top, I think this one will be very competitive and that’s the reason why I’m taking the Cubs on the “run line.”

The set-up: These teams have already played twice this year and each has won on its home floor. Suffice it to say, I think this trend carries over here.

The teams: Seattle comes in off a 100-77 setback at Washington on Thursday and I predict another “letdown” here as well. The Storm will close out the year with two “cream puffs” at home against the Liberty and Wings, so I’m expecting the visitors to get caught “looking ahead.” The Storm are led by Brenna Stewart with 22.2 points and 8.1 boards per game while Sue Bird added 7.3 assister per night.

Minnesota comes in off back-to-back victories and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.4 PPG, while Sylvia Fowles adds 11.9 boards.

The pick: Both teams have already clinched a playoff spot, but as I mentioned off the top, I think the Storm get caught looking ahead here to their final two games of the season in friendly confines. Play on Minnesota.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. In fact, I believe the talent-gap to be so large, that I absolutely have no issues at all in laying the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Ramirez is so far 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA. He’s been out since late April with a shoulder injury, but he’s been cleared to go finally tonight after making several re-hab starts over the last few weeks.

Keuchel is so far 9-9 with a 3.53 ERA. He comes in off a no-decision to San Francisco on Tuesday despite allowing just one run off three hits over six innings. Since the start of July Keuchel has given up just 11 runs over 45.2 frames, posting an elite 1.97 ERA in that span.

The pick: This is a mismatch of epic proportions. No upsets today. Keuchel started the 2018 campaign off very slowly, but he’s quietly turned the corner over the last month and a half and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continue that progression with another gem here. Lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I think that runs are going to be at a premium this afternoon. The visitors go with Chase Anderson, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Previous to that though he’d thrown back-to-back quality efforts and he’s still holding his opposition to just a .221 batting average. I think Anderson bounces back here and improves upon his already impressive 100:48 K/BB over 125.1 frames of work this season.

Newcomb is so far 10-5 with a 3.15 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits to go along with six strikeouts in a no-decision to Washington on Tuesday. Newcomb has now given up only three runs and ten hits over his last three starts combined, striking out 19 over 20.2 innings of work.

The pick: This one has classic “duel” written all over it in my opinion. Look for these two hungry starters to battle deep and play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors go with Noah Syndergaard, while the home side goes with Wei Yin Chen.

The pitchers: Syndergaard is so far 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings in a win over the Reds on Monday. To go along with his very respectable ERA, Syndergaard comes in with a sharp 1.22 WHIP and he also has 93 strikeouts over 88 frames of work. Additionally note that he’s 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA on the road to this point.

Chen is so far 4-8 with a 5.48 ERA. He comes in off a rare gem against the Cards, giving up no runs off one hit over 5.2 innings in the the victory. In his previous outing he was shelled for five runs over five innings. To go along with his uninspiring 5.48 ERA, Chen also owns a poor 1.43 WHIP and pedestrian 66:36 K/BB over 88.2 frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but note that the Mets are 7-2 in their last nine as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I’m banking on Chen taking a predictable step back here and I look for Synergaard to continue his recent progression. Lay the price.

The set-up: I played against the Aces in their home loss to Minnesota on Thursday, but I think Las Vegas offers great value to bounce back (ATS) at home on Saturday night. These teams have played twice this year and Las Vegas has won both times and while I do always take the “revenge angle” into account when doing my handicapping, I don’t think it’s going to apply here. 

The teams: Indiana is just plain terrible, the worst team in the league. After a short two-game win streak, the Fever came back down to Earth in a 94-79 loss to Seattle at home on Tuesday. Indiana is in action at Phoenix on Friday night as well, so clearly the visitors come in with “heavy legs” as well.

Las Vegas has lost five straight and it’ll be eager to break that slide. Note that the Aces don’t play again until Wednesday as well, so we can absolutely expect a full focused effort from the home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a three or more straight unbeaten streak. Lay the points.

In Week 1 of the NFLX pre-season, I don’t talk about what I think the teams will do over the upcoming campaign, or what they did over the off-season. If you want to get up to date information about that, there are plenty of other better places to do that. I’m here to simply let you know why this team of back-ups and wanna-be’s is going to win this meaningless Week 1 NFLX contest. In Week 2, I’ll touch on what each side did in Week 1.

Reasoning: Kirk Cousins comes over to Minnesota, but he’ll see limited to no time here. He’s working under a new offensive co-ordinator anyways, so immediate success seems a stretch at this point to me. The Vikes’ strength last year was on the defensive side, but none of the starters is expected to suit up today. Even though it’s Week 1 of the pre-season, I think this one “means” a lot more to the Broncos. Case Keenum is the new man under center for Denver after a better than expected job in Minnesota. Denver is admittedly a work in process, but this is Week 1 of the pre-season. I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. The talent gap is so great though in my opinion, that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, while the home side goes with Tyler Skaggs.

The pitchers: Jackson is so far 3-2 with a  2.87 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a victory over the light-hitting Tigers on Saturday. In 2017 Jackson was just 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA. He’s been great in 2018, but I think his numbers are unsustainable and I expect some predictable regression sooner, rather than later. 

Skaggs is so far 8-7 with a 3.34 ERA. Skaggs returns from the ten-day DL to make this start. In his previous outing he was rocked for ten runs against the Rays. Outings like that though have been few and far between for Skaggs this season and I’m expecting him to bounce back her win friendly confines, a place that he’s already posted a very respectable 3.22 ERA to this point.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -125 to -200 range. I think Jackson regresses and I like Skaggs to bounce back. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors Robbie Ray and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks. The home side sends the erratic Matt Harvey to the hill.

The pitchers: Ray is so far 3-2 with a 4.92 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off seven hits while striking out eight over six innings in a no-decision to the Giants on Sunday. Ray has not been able to carry over his 2017 momentum, but note that he’s been at his best on the road by going 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA. 

Harvey is so far 5-7 with a 5.37 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off nine hits while striking out one over four innings in a loss to Washington on Saturday. Five of the nine hits he gave up went for extra-bases. Note that he owns a terrible 5.48 ERA at home. 

The pick: I think Ray’s consistency on the road carries over here, while all signs point to another long night for Harvey in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of pretty “mediocre” match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. These starters have looked decent at times this year and very poor in others and in my opinion, runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors go with Kyle Gibson, while the home side goes with Francisco Liriano. 

The pitchers: Gibson is so far 5-9 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out three over five innings in a loss to the Tribe on Monday. Overall Gibson has been solid this season, but note that the Twins have seen the total fly “over” the number in seven of their last ten when the line in the contest is set between +150 and -150.

Liriano is so far 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits in a loss to the A’s on Sunday. For the most part LIriano has struggled this season though, coming into this one sporting a rough 73:51 K/BB. Note as well that he owns a horrible 5.08 ERA at home so far. 

The pick: I’m expecting these erratic starters to get the hook early and for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

In Week 1 of the NFLX season, I don’t give out season previews/predictions or give an update of what team’s did over the offseason. In Week 1 I simply give out a reason on why I think the back-ups and wannabe’s will win this contest.

Reasoning: The Lions will be playing backup Jake Rudock in this one. He completed 37 of 56 passes for 380 yards, three touchdowns and a pick in the pre-season last year. This is a big game for Oakland’s new coach Jon Gruden, who has blown up a lot of his team after last year’s disappointing season. Detroit is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four against the Raiders and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright, straight-up upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lions.

The set-up: This is a revenge game for the Sky after Connecticut hammered them 110-72 on their own floor earlier in the season. It’s also the opening game of a home and home set between the clubs. While I’m not predicting an outright victory, I do think that the Sun will “look past” their lowly opponent today and I like the Sky to sneak in through the back door for the comfortable ATS cover once it’s all said and done.

The teams: The Sun are primed for a letdown after clinching a playoff spot with a victory over the Wings on Wednesday. It was Connecticut’s fifth straight victory. The Sun are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 14.4 points, while Jasmine Thomas added 4.6 assists.

The Sky won’t be playing in the post-season, but they won’t be going down without a fight here after back-to-back losses. Chicago is led by Allie Quigley with 16.1 PPG, while Courtenay Vandersloot adds 8.4 assists. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Connecticut is already just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a three-games or more SU unbeaten streak, while Chicago is 3-1 ATS In its last four in trying to revenge an “in season” setback to an opponent. Grab the points, play on the Sky.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Blake Snell, while the home side goes with Marco Estrada.

The pitchers: Snell is so far 12-5 with a 2.27 ERA. He came back from the DL to face the White Sox most recently and would give up one run over four innings. Snell’s “leash” will be taken off here and he actually comes in with an extra days rest. Note that he’s 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA on the road. Respectable for sure.

Estrada is so far 5-8 with a 4.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off one hit while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over Seattle over the weekend. Estrada has struggled overall this season, but this latest effort was clearly a big step in the right direction and I think the veteran has the track record and pedigree to now carry that momentum over into a strong finish to the 2018 campaign.

The pick: I’m expecting a classic “duel” and on Friday night and as such, I’m jumping all over the “under” in this one.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. Both of these starters tonight have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons, I think this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Mike Minor, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka.

The pitchers: Minor is so far 8-6 with a 4.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Orioles on Saturday. Minor has been “hit or miss” though this year and note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 6.50 ERA on the road still.

Tanaka is so far 9-2 with a 3.76 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits while striking out nine over 4.2 innings in a victory over Boston on Sunday.

The pick: It’s hard to say anything negative about Tanaka, as overall he’s been very solid this year. Minor though has been a disaster on the road and I think the home side’s big bats are going to take advantage. The price is to steep, but the “over” is the correct call in my opinion.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with Dylan Bundy.

The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-4 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless against the Yankees on Saturday, giving up three hits and striking out four in the commanding performance. Since coming over to “The Evil Empire,” Eovaldi has fired 15 straight shutout frames.

Bundy is so far 7-10 with a 4.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits over six innings in a loss to Texas on Saturday. Over his previous 12.1 frames of work though Bundy was shelled for 15 earned runs. I’m not going to read too much into one decent outing as he’s consistently been inconsistent in this spot all year, coming in with a terrible 4-5, 4.95 ERA home record.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 7-2 in its last nine as a road favorite in the -125 to -200 range. No upsets here as I look for the hard-hitting Red Sox and Eovaldi to come in focused and to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the Giants. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, while the home side goes with Andrew Suarez.

The pitchers: Nova is so far 6-6 with a 4.49 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits with three walks over four innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Cards on Saturday. Nova comes in struggling across the board, having posted a terrible 5.81 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and pedestrian 17:10 K/BB over his last 31 frames of work. Note that he owns a poor 5.40 ERA on the road as well.

Suarez is so far 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA. Suarez comes off an outing to forget against the Diamondbacks on Saturday, giving up eight runs off ten hits over five innings. Suarez has struggled a bit of late as well, but he has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back in friendly confines as he owns a very respectable 3.64 ERA at home so far.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is a solid 19-12 in its last 31 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I think Suarez settles down at home, while Nova once again looks poised for a long-night. Lay the price, play on the Giants.

The set-up: These teams have played twice this season already and each has won on the others floor. I think that trend continues here, as I like Minnesota to at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments.

The teams: Minnesota broke a three-game slide with a victory at Chicago on Tuesday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 17.8 points per game, with Danielle Robinson adding 3.4 assists. Sylvia Fowles leads the nightly charge on the glass with 11.6 boards.

Las Vegas has lost three straight, most recently getting hammered 109-100 at Atlanta on Tuesday. The Aces are led by A’ja Wilson with 20.4 points and 8.3 boards per game, while Kelsey Plum adds 3.9 assists.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 65 points or less in its last contest, while Las Vegas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU losses. Play on the Lynx

incorrectly entered play. please disregard. 

In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest.

Reasoning: Buffalo has three QB’s who are all fighting for the No. 1 QB position in the preseason (AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen.) Buffalo improved itself on defense in the offseason as well. Carolina has injuries to its defense though including Julius Peppers and Ross Cockrell. Lay the points.

In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest.

Reasoning: Philadelphia won the Super Bowl and it’ll be out to prove the pundits wrong that it was a “fluke.” But Pittsburgh has a lot to prove as well this season. This is a big year for both teams, but this is a truly meaningless contest to open the preseason for each. Look for a spirited battle between these two in-state rivals and grab as many points as you can.

In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest.

Reasoning: The Bears fought valiantly in the Hall Of Fame Game last Thursday and while they covered for bettors, they came up short in the end. They’ll be feeling pretty good about that effort, but I think the back-to-back road games aren’t doing them any favors this week. The Bengals were a disaster last year and this is a make or break campaign for many involved in the organization. Even though it’s the back-ups and wannabe’s for the most part playing tonight, clearly the team will be out to leave a good impression in front of the home town crowd to kick off the 2018/19 season. Note as well that Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games. Lay the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. However, for a number of different reasons I think this one does indeed favor the home side. The Braves send Anibal Sanchez to the hill tonight, while the Nationals go with Gio Gonzalez.

The pitchers: Sanchez is so far 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Mets on Friday. Sanchez though would only throw 59 of his 100 pitches for strikes and he only generated eight swinging strikes against the Mets’ pathetic hitting line-up. Sanchez has been better than advertised this season, but I think he’s going to have his hands full here.

Gonzalez is so far 6-8 with a 4.04 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs over 3.2 innings in a blowout loss to the Reds on Saturday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Gonzalez over the last two seasons and he has to be feeling confident here that he can bounce back as he owns a solid 3.15 ERA at home so far this season.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but note that the Nationals are 7-2 in their last nine as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I like Gonzalez to bounce back at home and I think Sanchez is poised for regression. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features some starting pitchers who have seen better days. This is one of those match-ups. For a number of different reasons, I think this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek.

The pitchers: Cashner is so far 3-10 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently gave up ten runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out one over 1.2 innings in a loss to Texas on Thursday. Cashner had looked decent over the previous month before this dud, but note that he’s still a terrible 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA on the road this season.

Stanek is so far 1-3 with a 2.27 ERA. Stanek has looked decent in his limited time as a starters, but clearly the book is still out on the the 27 year old, as the sample size is simply too small. He posted a 5.85 ERA last year, so regression does seem imminent in my opinion after his recent run of competency.

The pick: I have zero confidence in either of these starters and I expect each to get chased early. So with that in mind, the prudent call is definitely the “over” in this particular matchup in my professional opinion.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons, I think that Mike Foltynewicz and the visitors are worth the price of admission tonight. The home side goes with Tommy Milone on the hill.

The pitchers: Foltynewicz is so far 8-7 with a 3.04 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs and a walk while striking out six in a victory over the Mets on Thursday. Foltynewicz was scuffling before this, but he looked fantastic in his latest start and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. Note that he still owns an impressive 143:50 K/BB over 124.1 frames of work.

Milone is so far 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He most recently gave up one run while striking out nine over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Mets on Monday. Over 12 innings this year Milone has given up just four runs, but clearly he faces a stiff test tonight against the Braves’ hard-hitting sluggers.

The pick: I like Foltynewicz to build off his latest effort, while everything points to a predictable letdown for Milone against this difficult line-up. Play on the Braves.

The set-up: These teams have played twice this year and each has won its home floor. New York took the first game 81-75, before LA won 80-54 in the the most recent. I think this trend carries over in this one as I like the Liberty to battle tough and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The teams: After back-to-back wins and with a game tomorrow night in Atlanta, this one sets up as a classic “look-ahead” spot for the visitors in my professional opinion. LA is led by Candace Parker with 18.1 points and 7.9 boards per game, while Chelsea Gray adds 5.4 assists.

No need to question New York’s focus today after seven straight losses, most recently a 96-80 setback to Seattle. The Liberty don’t play again until Sunday either, so I’m fully expecting a concerted effort here from the home side in this one. New York is led by Tina Charles with 19.6 points and 7.2 boards per game.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after six or more SU losses. Desperation leads the Liberty to a solid cover on Wednesday.

The set-up: This series features some interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. Runs would appear to be at a premium tonight with a couple of red hot hurlers squaring off. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Patrick Corbin.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-8 with a 3.80 ERA. He most recently went 6.1 scoreless frames against the Fish on Friday, giving up two hits and one walk while striking out seven in the victory. Over his last 24.1 frames he’s given up just two runs. He also has 129 strikeouts over 113.2 innings of work this year.

Corbin is so far 8-4 with a 3.31 ERA. He most recently struck out eight and walked zero in a victory over San Francisco on Friday. Cobrin now has 12 quality efforts on the season and he’s holding the opposition to a .216 batting average. He also has an impressive 174 strikeouts and a 1.06 WHIP.

The pick: I’m expecting these starters to throw deep into this game and as a result, the “under” is the correct call in my professional opinion.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Mariners go with Marco Gonzalez on the hill, while the Rangers go with Yovani Gallardo.

The pitchers: Gonzales is so far 12-6 with a 3.46 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a loss to Toronto on Friday. The setback snapped a five-game win streak in which he posted a 2.18 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. Note that he’s still 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA on the road.

Gallardo is so far 6-1 with a 6.51 ERA. He earned a win last time out against the Orioles on Thursday despite allowing five earned runs off nine hits over 5.1 frames of work. The beleaguered right-hander has now given up multiple walks in six of his eight starts this year and to go along with his atrocious ERA, he also owns a deplorable 1.62 WHIP.

The pick: Gallardo’s win/loss record is not indicative of how he’s thrown this year as he’s been the beneficiary of some weak match-ups and a lot of support. I expect those two things to come to an end here against the Mariners’ big bats and the consistent play of Gonzalez. Lay the price, play on Seattle.

The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. That said however, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. The Dodgers go with Rich Hill, while the A’s go with Sean Manea.

The pitchers: Hill is so far 4-4 with a 3.63 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits and a walk while striking out four over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday. Hill has been pretty good since returning from the DL in mid-June, but note that he’s still just 3-4 with a 4.22 ERA in all “night” games.

Manaea is so far 10-7 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits with two walks over six innings while striking out five in a win over Toronto on Wednesday. It was his third quality effort out of his last four tries and he now has a 21:6 K/BB over his last 34.2 frames of work.

The pick: Hill has looked better of late, but I think he’ll struggle in this difficult venue. Manaea is putting together his best season of his career and I look for him to carry that momentum over in friendly confines. Play on Oakland.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. That said however, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. The Phillies go with Nick Pivetta, while the Diamondbacks go with Zack Greinke.

The pitchers: Pivetta is so far 6-9 with a 4.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits with zero walks over six innings in a no-decision to the light-hitting Marlins on Thursday. Pivetta though has been terrible on the road this season by going 2-4 with a 5.63 ERA.

Greinke is so far 12-6 with a 2.96 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits with one walk while striking out five over six innings in an unfortunate loss to San Francisco on Thursday. Greinke though is putting together a great overall 2018 campaign, coming into this one sporting the sharp ERA, a strong 1.04 WHIP and 148 strikeouts to this point.

The pick: And note that Greinke has been tough on the opposition at home this year with the 5-2, 2.44 ERA record to this point. No upset here as I like Greinke to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price.

The set-up: Two struggling starters go head-to-head in this one and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano, while the home side goes with Jason Vargas.

The pitchers: Romano is so far 6-9 with a 5.12 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out three over 5.1 innings in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday. Romano has been terrible overall this season, especially on the road where he’s just 1-5 with a 5.62 ERA.

Vargas is so far 2-7 with an 8.23 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits and three walks in a loss to the Braves on Thursday. Vargas comes in with zero momentum, having now lost four straight. 

The pick: Vargas has struggled at home as well with a 1-3, 5.49 ERA record to this point. The total in this contest is high for a National League affair, but for good reason. I’m expecting these hurlers to get chased early and I look for this total to fly “over” the number sooner, rather than later. Play the “over.” 

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors go with Miles Mikolas, while the home side goes with Pablo Lopez.

The pitchers: Mikolas is so far 11-3 with a 2.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Thursday. Over five July starts Mikolas would give up 11 runs over 27 innings while also posting 19 strikeouts. To go along with his strong ERA, he also owns a solid 1.08 WHIP and 97:25 K/BB over 137.1 frames of work.

Lopez is so far 2-2 with a 4.67 ERA. Lopez has looked decent over his six career big league starts, but not great. Note that he’s just 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA at home as well.

The pick: The sample size is simply too small for Lopez to get an entirely accurate read, but in the early going the rookie has been terrible in front of the home town crowd. And that doesn’t bode well facing this opportunistic Cards’ line-up. There’s no reason not to think that Mikolas can’t carry over his focus to this one. Lay the price, play on St. Louis.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I like Matt Boyd and the Tigers to battle tough and to keep this one close enough to at the very least, escape with a cover with the extra 1.5 runs. The home side sends Nick Tropeano to the hill.

The pitchers: Boyd is so far 6-9 with a 4.22 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless while striking out seven in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. Over his last 19 frames of work he’s allowed just three earned runs. 

Tropeano is so far 4-6 with a 4.94 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off seven hits with four walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to the light-hitting Rays on Wednesday. Tropeano labored from the start by throwing only 56 of his 95 pitches for strikes. 

The pick: Tropeano has been a disaster at home as well with the 1-3, 5.46 ERA record this season. I think Boyd carries over his considerable momentum here, while recent form displayed by Tropeano points to another long night for the right-hander. Play on the Tigers on the “run line.” 

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons I think that Wade LeBlanc and the visiting side are worth the price of admission vs. Rangers’ starter Bartolo Colon.

The pitchers: LeBlanc is so far 6-2 with a 3.95 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Astros on Wednesday, allowing seven runs over 4.1 innings. He’d posted two straight quality efforts before this “dud,” so I’m not going to over-react to one crummy outing. Note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA in all “night” games.

Colon is so far 5-10 with a 5.18 ERA. he most recently was shelled for five runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out three over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. Colon is continuing to regress as the season wares on, having allowed at least five runs in three straight trips to the mound. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 5.72 ERA at home as well.

The pick: LeBlanc was cruising along with some elite numbers until his most recent outing, but Colon has been struggling for quite a while. LeBlanc gets back on track here in this favorable matchup, while everything points to another long night for Colon. Lay the price, play on the Mariners.

The set-up: Note that this is a revenge game for New York after it fell 77-62 to the Storm at home earlier in the season. Seattle though comes in complacent here in my opinion after three straight victories, while also getting caught “looking ahead” to its game at Indiana tomorrow afternoon. New York though will be taking nothing for granted after six straight losses.

The teams: Seattle is led by Breanna Stewart with 22.5 points and 8.1 boards per game, while Sue Bird adds 7.4 assists.

The Liberty are led by Tina Charles with 19.6 points and 7.2 boards per game, while Brittany Boyd adds 5.3 assists.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York is 7-3 in its last ten after four or more consecutive SU losses. No need to over think this one, as I think a revenge minded and determined Liberty team catches the Storm “off guard.” Play on New York.

The set-up: They Lynx come in off an 85-75 setback at Seattle on Friday night and I think they’re primed for another letdown here as well. These teams have played each other twice this year and so far they’re 1-1.

The teams: Atlanta has won nine of its last ten, most recently an 89-74 victory at home over Chicago on Friday. The Dream are led by Tiffany Hayes with 17.3 points, while Renee Montgomery averages 3.4 assists. Jessica Breland leads the nightly charge on the glass with 8.1 boards per game.

The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 17.4 PPG, while Danielle Robison directs the point with 3.2 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the way on the glass with 11.7 boards per game.

The pick: The Lynx return home after losing two straight on the road. Minnesota is struggling to find offensive consistency right now and I think the Dream can smell the blood in the water. I look for Atlanta to leave town with a comfortable ATS cover tonight.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons however, I think this one favors the home side. The Giants go with Derek Holland, while the Diamondbacks go with Robbie Ray.

The pitchers: Holland is so far 5-8 with a 3.90 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off four hits with two walks while striking out five over five innings against San Diego on Monday. Holland has been better than advertised so far for San Francisco this season, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 3-5 with a 4.01 ERA on the road.

Ray is so far 3-2 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off two hits and four walks while striking out six over 5.1 innings in no-decision to the Rangers on Monday. Ray’s ERA is nothing to write home about, but he sports a respectable 1.29 WHIP and 87 strikeouts over 66 frames of work to this point.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 3-7 in its last ten day games as a road underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I like Ray to get back on track in front of the home town crowd and for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to provide the support. Lay the price.

The set-up: This isn’t the most interesting match-up on the mound, but all things considered I believe it’s one that favors the home side. The Reds send the erratic Luis Castillo to the hill, while the Nationals go with improving Tanner Roark.

The pitchers: Castillo is so far 6-8 with a 4.98 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings in a win over the Phillies on Sunday, striking out nine and walking just one. It was his best start of the year, but I think he’ll make a predictable fall back down into mediocrity again tonight. Note that he’s just 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA on the road as well still.

Roark is so far 5-12 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings, while striking out seven and walking none in a win over the Mets on Tuesday. Over his last 15 innings of work Roark has given up just one earned run.

The pick: Roark has struggled overall this year, but his recent form suggests that the hard-throwing right-hander is finally trending in the correct direction. Castillo had an amazing performance in his latest start, but he’s been consistently inconsistent all season, especially on the road. That makes Roark well worth the price of admission in this match-up in my opinion. Play on the Nationals.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and depending on how you want to look at it, this is definitely one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one has high-scoring “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Edwin Jackson.

The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 4-3 with a 4.44 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off six hits with one walk while striking out two over three innings in a loss to the Tribe on Sunday. He’s now lost three straight and posted a 1.21 WHIP to go along with just 67 strikeouts over 71 frames of work this season. Note that he owns a poor 5.25 ERA on the road as well.

Jackson is so far 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA. He most recently went 5.2 scoreless against the Jays in a victory. In his previous start though he was blasted for five runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings. Jackson has been decent overall this year, but regression seems imminent in my opinion after his unreal start.

The pick: For this pick I’m focusing solely on the starting pitchers. Simply put, neither fills me with a lot of confidence. In fact, I’m expecting each to get the hook early and as such, everything points to the “over” as the correct call in this particular match-up.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Burch Smith, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios.

The pitchers: Smith is so far 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. Smith has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. To go along with his poor ERA, note that he also owns a shoddy 1.50 WHIP.

Berrios is so far 10-8 with a 3.56 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off nine hits while striking out six over 4.2 innings in a loss to Boston on Sunday. Over 139 frames of work this year Berrios owns the 3.56 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, while also amassing 142 strikeouts.

The pick: Berrios has been “lights out” at home as well with a 7-2, 2.99 ERA record. Smith is in over his head here. Berrios has been far from perfect this season, but he’ll be feeling confident in friendly confines and that makes this a price that I can live with paying. Lay the price, play on the Twins.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, but this particular one is even more lop-sided than what the oddsmakers want us to believe in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber, while the home side goes with Ivan Nova.

The pitchers: Gomber is so far 1-0 with a 3.22 ERA. He made his first major-league start in Cincinnati on July 24th and gave up two earned runs over 6.1 innings. Gomber’s been decent, not spectacular and clearly he draws a tough match-up here.

Nova is so far 6-6 with a 4.33 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Previous to that “dud” though Nova had looked pretty good by giving up just six runs over 17 frames of work. The 31 year old comes into this one sporting a 1.29 WHIP and 82:22 K/BB over 114.1 frames.

The pick: Clearly the sky is the limit for Gomber, but I think the rookie will come up short here on the road. Nova for the most part has been solid this year and I think he’ll get the better of his younger counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Pirates.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think that Zach Eflin and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors go with Jose Urena on the mound tonight.

The pitchers: Urena is so far 3-10 with a 4.40 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against the Nationals on Sunday. Urena has been decent overall this season, but note that he’s still a terrible 2-3 with a 5.01 ERA on the road this season.

Eflin is so far 7-3 with a 3.64 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. He’s looked shaky over his last two starts, but I don’t think there’s any need to over-react at this point. Note that Eflin is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Eflin is also a solid 5-2 with a 3.56 ERA in all “night” games. Urena has likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he’s in over his head in this difficult venue in my opinion. I’m banking on Eflin doing just enough to get back into the win column tonight. Lay the price.

The set-up: This important American League series features some interesting match-ups on the mound and this is certainly one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I absolutely believe that Nate Eovaldi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Chance Adams, who makes his big league debut here.

The pitchers: Adams went five scoreless while striking out six for Triple-A Scranton on Wednesday. Previous to that though he’d given up four runs off seven hits over 3.2 innings. He’s also already given up four free passes over just 8.2 innings of work.

Eovaldi is so far 4-4 with a 3.80 ERA. He went seven shutout innings while allowing four hits and striking out five in a win over Minnesota in his debut for his new team on Sunday. Over his last 13 innings of work he’s given up just one run while striking out 13.

The pick: Over 64 frames of work Eovaldi has 58 strikeouts to go along with a sharp 0.94 WHIP this season. Clearly the sky is the limit for Adams, but I think he’s in well over his head in this one. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox.

The set-up: I think that Marco Gonzalez and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors go with Ryan Borucki on the mound.

The pitchers: Borucki is so far 0-2 with a 2.83 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over six innings with six hits and a walk while strking out five in a no-decision to the White Sox on Sunday. The rookie has been decent in his limited time, but clearly he finds himself in a difficult match-up and venue here.

Gonzalez is so far 12-5 with a 3.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off seven hits over six frames while striking out seven in a win over the Angels on Sunday. He’s now 5-0 over his last five games and he’s given up just 25 walks over 125.2 frames of work overall this season.

The pick: Note as well that Gonzalez is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA at home this year. And take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is 7-2 in its last nine as a home fav in the -150 to -225 range, while the Blue Jays are just 2-6 in their last eight as a road underdog in the +150 to +200 range. No upset here as Gonzalez continues his solid season with another strong performance in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The visitors go with German Marquez, while the Brewers go with Junior Guerra.

The pitchers: Marquez is so far 9-8 with a 4.82 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits and a walk in a win over the A’s on Sunday. Marquez has been “hit or miss” this year though and note that he owns a pedestrian 4.86 ERA in all “night” games.

Guerra is so far 6-7 with a 3.43 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over four innings in a loss to the Giants on Sunday. Previous to that though he’d given up three earned runs or fewer in six of seven outings. Note as well that he’s 3-3 with a very respectable 2.45 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Guerra comes in focused and hungry off his latest poor effort. And thankfully for Guerra he’s throwing in front of the home town crowd tonight, a place which he’s been downright dominant in. No reason not to think that that momentum/trend doesn’t get carried over here as well. The price is right, play on the Brewers.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons I absolutely believe that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this match-up. The visitors send Heath Fillmyer to the hill.

The pitchers: Fillmyer is so far 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Yankees on Saturday. Over his first 27.1 big league innings the rookie sports a poor 15:12 K/BB.

Odorizzi is so far 4-7 with a 4.58 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing, giving up five runs off nine hits while striking out five over five innings in a loss to Boston on Saturday. Previous to that he gave up two runs over seven innings and struck out eight against the Royals.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -175 to -250 range, while KC is just 2-5 in its last seven as a road dog in the -175 to -250 range. I like Odorizzi to come in focused and to take advantage of this favorable match-up. Lay the price.

The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Sparks are 2-1. LA won 77-76 in Minnesota in the first one, 77-69 at home in the second one, before then falling 83-72 in Minnesota in the latest on July 5th. Minnesota has won three straight and with a tough one on the road in Seattle tomorrow night, the Lynx get caught looking ahead here in my opinion. The Sparks on the other hand have lost two of three and have had a night off to absorb an 81-71 loss to the Dream on Tuesday.

The teams: The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.2 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen directs the point with 3.3 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the charge on the glass with 11.7 board a game.

The Sparks are led by Candace Parker with 18 PPG, while Chelsea Gray adds 5.3 assists per night. Parker also leads the rebound department with 7.5 per night.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is already just 5-8 ATS this year after allowing 75 points or more in its previous contest, while LA is already 6-1 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. Play on the Sparks.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. Clayton Kershaw has looked human this year and I think that leaves the door open for the steady Jhoulys Chacin and the hungry Brewers to steal this one on Thursday night.

The pitchers: Chacin is so far 10-3 with a 3.45 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits and a walk while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over San Francisco on Saturday. Over 127.2 innings Chacin sports a sharp 1.19 WHIP and note that he’s 6-1 with a 3.45 ERA on the road this season.

Kershaw is so far 4-5 with a 2.52 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits over 7.2 innings in a win over Atlanta on Friday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Kershaw, who has been solid of late, I simply feel that Chacin, who comes in on top form, is going to be able to match him inning for inning on Thursday.

The pick: The Brewers are under-rated here in my opinion, they come in 63-47 overall, including 30-26 on the road. LA is 59-49 overall, but a pedestrian 28-26 at home. Value swings to the underdog in this one, play on Milwaukee.

The set-up: This game is being played on Thursday, August 2nd at 8:00 PM EST at the Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. The Bears have a new head coach in Matt Nagy, who comes over as the former offensive coordinator of the KC Chiefs. Baltimore hasn’t made the playoffs in three years and if Joe Flacco can’t step up, surely there’s going to be some major changes upcoming for the Ravens.

The teams: We’re going to see a battle for backup QB in Chicago during the preseason between Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray, with Mitchell Trubisky having already secured the starters position. There’s talent at receiver as well in Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller.

Baltimore used its No. 1 draft pick to grab QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens also have Robert Griffin III as another backup. The Ravens also have a lot of new faces in the receiver position, including Michael Crabtree and Willie Sneed. The defense should be a strength of the team, but don’t expect to see any starters playing on Opening night.

The pick: For arguments sakes, let’s call every position on every line on both sides of the ball a “wash” in this game, except at QB, which we’ll look at here subjectively. If this was Trubisky going against Flacco, we’d look at this one differently, but the experience that the Ravens’ backup QB’s bring to the table will turn out to be the difference in my opinion. Daniel and Bray lack experience, while RG III and the gifted Lamar Jackson clearly have the advantage in that department. And for me, that’s the difference make in this matchup. Play on Baltimore.

The set-up: It’s a big American League East series going in Boston Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side. The Yanks hand the ball to CC Sabathia, while the Red Sox go with Brian Johnson.

The pitchers: Sabathia is so far 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with eight strikeouts over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Saturday. Sabathia had been off for two weeks, so he had to work though a little rust. The veteran though looked sharp overall and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 5-3, 3.66 ERA night record.

Johnson is so far 1-3 with a 3.45 ERA. He most recently struck out five over 5.2 scoreless in a no-decision to Minnesota on Thursday. Johnson remains in the rotation with the injury to ace Chris Sale, but note that he’s still 0-1 with a 4.79 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Slugger Aaron Judge is out for the Yankees, but New York features a ton of depth at the plate, so expect zero regression in that department. Note as well that the Yanks are 24-6 (+14.6 units) this season against southpaws. I like Sabathia to get the better of Johnson and for the “Evil Empire” to strike first.

The set-up: Miami was in Atlanta on Wednesday night, while Philadelphia had the night off. This series features a number of rather poor match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The visitors go with Trevor Richards, while the Phillies go with Nick Pivetta.

The pitchers: Richards is so far 3-5 with a 4.06 ERA. He most recently allowed three hits with two walks while striking out eight over six scoreless against the Nationals on Saturday. The rookie has looked a lot better of late after a shaky start to his MLB career, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 5.11 ERA on the road this year.

Pivetta is so far 6-9 with a 4.85 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off six hits with 12 strikeouts over six innings in a loss to the Reds on Friday. Over 107.2 innings Pivetta owns the pedestrian ERA, but his 1.33 WHIP and 134 strikeouts remain respectable.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 0-11 (-11 units) this year on all “Thursday” games and just 35-44 against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is 45-37 (+7.3 units) against right-handed starters. No upsets here. Lay the price, play on the Phillies.

OVERNIGHT PITCHING CHANGE FOR MIAMI: Note that the Fish have opted to go with Pablo Lopez instead (2-2, 5.34) who was most recently crushed for four runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to Washington on Friday. Simply put, his numbers aren’t spectacular (1.29 WHIP and 23 strikeouts over 28.2 innings.) This is a difficult spot start and I think Lopez will predictably struggle. This play is still VALID, lay the price.

The set-up: These teams have played each other three times this year and so far Phoenix has gone 2-1, winning 72-66 in the first first one, 92-80 on the road in the second one, before then falling 85-82 in the most recent at home back on the 19th.

The teams: The Mercury are the deeper and more experienced team led by Diana Taurasi with 20.3 PPG, She also leads the team in assists with 4.8 per night. It’s Brittney Griner though who controls the glass with 7.2 per game.

The Aces are led by 20 points a night by A’ ja Wilson, while Kelsey Plum directs the show with 3.4 assists per game. Wilson also leads the charge on the glass with 8.6 per night. 

The pick: The Aces come in off back-to-back wins and have a date in the Nation’s capital on Friday night. I think the home side comes in complacent gets caught “looking ahead” here. Phoenix on the other hand comes in desperate this week. After its game against Seattle at home on Tuesday night, I think the Phoenix will catch Las Vegas off guard on Wednesday. Grab the points, play on the Mercury. 

The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the visitors. The defending champs send Dallas Keuchel to the hill, while the home side goes with Wade LeBlanc.

The pitchers: Keuchel is so far 8-9 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings while striking out five in a loss to the Rangers on Friday. Note that it was just his first loss since early June. Also note that Keuchel has been sharp on the road this season with a 5-4, 3.04 ERA record.

LeBlanc is so far 6-1 with a  3.51 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Friday. LeBlanc has looked good as well this year, but I simply believe that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

The pick: Note as well that Keuchel is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in all “day” games this season, while LeBlanc has a 6.06 ERA in all day contests. I’m banking on Keuchel continuing his strong play on the road and in all daytime contests and I look for LeBlanc to finally take a step back in this difficult match-up. Lay the price, play on Houston.

The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match-ups on the mound and this particular one is definitely one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The Jays send Marcus Stroman to the hill, while the A’s hand the ball to Sean Manaea. 

The pitchers: Stroman is so far 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits and a walk over 6.2 innings while striking out three in a win over the White Sox on Friday. Since coming off the DL Stroman has posted a 2.98 ERA, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA in all “day” games.

Manaea is so far 9-7 with a 3.46 ERA. He most recently allowed three earned runs off nine hits over five innings while striking out five over five innings in a loss to Colorado on Friday. Manaea has now allowed three earned runs or less in ten consecutive starts. 

The pick: Manaea has been at his best at home as well this year with a 5-0, 2.95 ERA record and I think he carries that momentum over here. Stroman has looked better of late, but I think he finally takes a step back in this difficult venue. The price is right, play on Oakland.

The set-up: This series features a number of competitive match ups on the mound, however I don’t think that this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the visitors. The Indians go with Carlos Carrasco on the hill, while the Twins go with Adalberto Mejia 

The pitchers: Carrasco is so far 12-5 with a 3.89 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs (just one earned) off seven hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to Detroit on Friday. Carrasco was on top form, generating 19 swinging strikes out of 97 pitches and since the All Star break he’s posted a 16:3 K/BB over 13 innings.

Mejia is so far 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA. Mejia is back in the rotation out of necessity and so far he’s posted a 3.68 ERA to go along with a poor 1.67 WHIP over 12.1 innings this year. 

The pick: Carrasco comes in rested and focused and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that he won’t carry over his recent momentum here. Mejia has been decent in his limited time this season, but there’s no question he draws a tough matchup this afternoon. I think Carrasco will have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his counterpart and that makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Indians.

The set-up: This series features a number of lop-sided match ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors go with the venerable Bartolo Colon, while the home side goes with Zach Godley.

The pitchers: Colon is so far 5-9 with a 5.02 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off nine hits with two walks over seven innings in a loss to the A’s on Thursday. Colon has lost all four July starts and he comes in sporting the sub-par 3-5, 4.78 ERA on the road.

Godley is so far 11-6 with a 4.73 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off seven hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Thursday. Overall his numbers are poor, but note that he’s been much better of late, allowing exactly one walk in four of his last five starts, while not giving up a home run in any of those outings and posting a very respectable 3.42 ERA over that span.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is already a poor 31-43 (-4.7 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Arizona is 37-32 (+2.3 units) against right-handed pitching. No upsets here as I expect Godley to easily get the better of Colon. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: This series features a number of competitive match ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the Cardinals. The visitors go with Jon Gray on the hill, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty.

The pitchers: Gray is so far 8-7 with a 5.16 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off one hit while striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision to Houston on Wednesday. Gray’s looked sharp in consecutive starts since being called back up from a stint in the minors, but note that he’s still just 3-4 with a 5.89 ERA on the road this year.

Flaherty is so far 4-5 with a 3.28 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs off four hits and two walks while striking out eight over five innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Wednesday. Flaherty hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been at his best at home with a 3.08 ERA so far this season.

The pick: I think Gray comes back down to Earth with another poor effort on the road, while there’s no reason not to think that Flaherty won’t be able to carry over his recent momentum, especially in friendly confines. The price is right, play on St. Louis.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors go with Trevor Bauer, while the home side goes with Kyle Gibson.

The pitchers: Bauer is so far 9-6 with a 2.32 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless against the Pirates on Wednesday, giving up two hits and striking out ten in the commanding performance. Bauer hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been very consistent and note that he has to be feeling confident in this spot as he’s 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA in all “night” games.

Gibson is so far 5-7 with a 3.42 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off four hits over eight innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Thursday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Gibson, who is easily putting together the best campaign of his career to this point, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The pick: As note that Cleveland is 36-18 (+4.2 units) this year against teams with losing records, while Minnesota is a terrible 24-33 (-4.1 units) this season against clubs with winning records. I think Bauer matches Gibson inning for inning and I look for the Indians’ hard-hitting line-up to do the rest. Lay the price, play on the Tribe.

The set-up: I think Tyler Skaggs and the hard-hitting Angels are the correct call in this particular matchup. The home side goes with Ryne Stanek.

The pitchers: Skaggs is so far 8-6 with a 2.62 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs (just one earned) off four hits while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over the White Sox on Wednesday. The southpaw has now given up one or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight trips to the hill while posting a 51:12 K/BB over 50 innings during that stretch. 

Stanek is so far 1-3 with a 2.43 ERA. He’s expected to throw no more than two frames, before making way for either Austin Pruitt or Ryan Yarbrough out of the bullpen. In his last start Stanek was lit up for three runs over two innings by the Orioles.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 17-8 (+5.8 units) in its last 25 as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Tampa is just 57-63 (-8.5 units) in its last 120 at home when the money line is set in the +125 to -125 range. I’m banking on Skaggs coming in focused and I look for the Angels to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Great value, play on the Angels.

The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match ups on the mound and this isn’t really one of them. This is a bigger mismatch than what the bookmakers would like us to think though in my opinion as the visitors hand the ball to the steady Derek Rodriguez, while the home side goes with the erratic Clayton Richard.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 5-1 with a 2.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits with three strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Thursday. To go along with his solid ERA, Rodriguez also owns an impressive 47:14 K/BB.

Richard is so far 7-10 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently was rocked for six runs off five hits with two walks to go along with a lone strikeout over five innings in a loss to the Padres on Wednesday. Richard has now given up at least five runs in three of his last five starts.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is 22-16 (+10.6 units) this year in all “day” games, while San Diego is just 13-19 (-3.2 units) in all “day” games. Great value on the better pitcher, play on the Giants.

The set-up: The Brewers fell 8-5 in San Francisco last night, while the Dodgers lost 4-1 in Atlanta yesterday afternoon. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors LA. The visitors go with Freddy Peralta, while the home side goes with Kenta Maeda.

The pitchers: Peralta is so far 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA. He most recently allowed seven runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to Washington on Wednesday. Over 43.1 innings so far he’s allowed 22 walks.

Maeda is so far 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off six hits over seven innings, striking out seven and walking no one in what turned out to be a no-decision. Note that it was the first time since mid May that he’s allowed more than three runs. Note as well that he owns a solid 2.74 ERA at home.

The pick: The Brewers have been strong on the road, but their rookie is in over his head here in my opinion. I look for Maeda to continue his strong play at home and to find a way to deliver the goods at the end of the night. Lay the price.

The set-up: While Robbie Ray is struggling through a difficult overall season, I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his inconsistent inter-league counterpart. The Rangers will hand the ball to the erratic Martin Perez in this one.

The pitchers: Perez is so far 2-4 with a 7.08 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off seven hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision to Oakland on Wednesday. Perez has struggled across the board this year, going only 1-1 with a 6.64 ERA on the road.

Ray is so far 3-2 with a 4.90 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits with a walk and six strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Wednesday. After a disappointing first half, it was easily Ray’s best start of 2018.

The pick: And there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing southpaw won’t be able to carry that momentum over here in this favorable matchup. Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is just 14-19 against lefties this year, while Arizona is 21-16 (+3.9 units) against southpaws. The massive talent gap on the mound makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: St. Louis fell 5-2 at home to the Cubs on Sunday Night baseball after taking the first two games of that series, while Colorado came out on top of Oakland 3-2 last night. For a number of different reasons, I think tonight’s contest favors the Cards though. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side goes with Carlos Martinez.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 6-3 with a 3.57 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off three hits with three walks while striking out four over 7.1 innings in a no-decision to the Astros on Tuesday. Anderson has been sharp in July (1.32 ERA), but note that the Rockies are just 2-7 in their last nine after giving up two or less runs in their previous outing.

Martinez is so far 6-6 with a 3.39 ERA. Martinez missed one start after a short stint on the DL, but he’s been cleared to go here. Note that he owns a sharp 2.68 ERA at home.

The pick: Also note that St. Louis is 12-7 (+4.6 units) this season at home when the money line in the contest falls in the -125 to +125 range. For arguments sakes, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I think the Cards have the advantage at home though and I look for them to make the most of it. Lay the very reasonable price.

The set-up: The Sunday Night ESPN game features an interesting matchup on the mound, as the visitors send Kyle Hendricks to the hill, while the home side goes with John Gant.

The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. Over six of his last seven starts Hendricks has now failed to complete six innings. Note that he’s an uninspiring 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA on the road as well.

Gant is so far 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA. He was most recently used in relief against the Reds on Wednesday, giving up two earned runs and two walks over one frame of work.

The pick: These teams have woken up at the plate as the weather has warmed up, as Chicago has seen the total go “over” in 14 of 23 in July so far, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in five of its last seven against the division. While these teams played to the “under” on Saturday afternoon, everything points to a higher-scoring “slug-fest” in this one. Play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups and this is definitely one of them. The visitors go with veteran Clay Buchholz, while the home side goes with Joey Lucchesi.

The pitchers: Buchholz is so far 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits in a victory over the Cubs on Tuesday, while also striking out five over seven frames of work. In eight trips to the hill this year Buchholz has given up more than two runs just once. He owns a sharp 0.99 WHIP and 36:9 K/BB over 45.1 frames.

Lucchesi is so far 5-5 with a 3.34 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with no walks over 5.1 innings in a win over the Mets on Monday. For the most part Lucchesi has been solid this season, but note that he’s just 1-2 with a 4.98 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Arizona is 30-23 on the road, while San Diego is just 19-31 at home. Lucchesi’s been consistently inconsistent and I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Buchholz on the other hand comes in on top form and I look for him to carry that momentum over here. The price is right, play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Ryan Borucki, while the home side goes with Carlos Rodon.

The pitchers: Borucki is so far 0-2 with a 2.79 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits while striking out just two over six innings in a tough luck loss against Minnesota on Tuesday. Borucki has been the victim of poor run support to this point (just ten runs over his five big-league outings), but the Jays catch a break here today facing the erratic Rodon.

Rodon is so far 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with three walks over seven innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. Rodon has admittedly looked decent of late, but I still think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The pick: And that’s because Toronto has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last ten against teams with losing records (and in four of its last six against southpaws). The Whitesox aren’t known for their offensive prowess, so that’s why it’s important to note that they’ve seen the total go “over” seven of their last ten home games when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. I’m expecting these starters to get the hook early and for this one to sail “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side goes with Luis Castillo

The pitchers: Eflin is so far 7-2 with a 3.41 ERA. He comes in off an outing to forget, allowing three runs off five hits with three walks in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Monday. Previous to this dud he’d won six of his last seven starts and despite the shaky performance, he still owns a solid 1.15 WHIP and 68:17 K/BB over 71.1 innings. Also note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.62 ERA on the road.

Castillo is so far 5-8 with a 5.30 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Cardinals on Monday. Castillo has looked better over the last month, but he still owns a poor 2-5, 5.66 ERA record in all “day” games this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is a terrible 33-44 (-5.3 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is 45-35 (+9.5 units) against right-handed pitching. I’m banking on Eflin getting the better of Castillo and for the Phillies to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Philadelphia.

The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors send ace Jose Berrios to the hill, while the home side goes with the newly acquired Nate Eovaldi. 

The pitchers: Berrios is so far 10-7 with a 3.48 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings while striking out nine in a win over the Jays on Tuesday. To go along with his solid ERA, note that he also owns a sharp 1.00 WHIP and 136 strikeouts over 134.1 frames of work.

Eovaldi is so far 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Over ten starts for Tampa this season he’s posted a 4.26 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 53 strikeouts over 57 frames of work. 

The pick: Eovaldi has been hit or miss in his limited time this season and he certainly draws a tough matchup in his first start for his new team. Berrios on the other hand is getting stronger as the season has progressed and I look for that trend to carry over here. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames, I’m grabbing the 1.5 runs. 

The set-up: Felix Hernandez has looked brilliant at times this season for the Mariners and very poor in others. Jaime Barria is coming off a difficult outing, but for the most part the rookie has been solid, especially at home. I like the home side in this one.

The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 8-8 with a 5.14 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off five hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Saturday. While he does own a 4-3 record on the road, note that his ERA elevates to an unsightly 6.65 away from friendly confines.

Barria is so far 5-7 with a 3.80 ERA. Barria most recently allowed four runs over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Monday. Barria has struggled over the last month, but note that he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, having already posted a very respectable 3.01 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Seattle has been a great story this year, but I think Hernandez’s struggles on the road once again come back to haunt him here. Barria is the correct call, so lay the price.

The set-up: This National League series features some interesting matchups, and this is definitely one of them. The Brewers go with Jhoulys Chacin, while the Giants go with Johnny Cueto. Runs would appear to be at a premium.

The pitchers: Chacin is so far 9-3 with a 3.58 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits with no walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a victory over Washington on Monday. The veteran continues to produce consistent results, note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.67 ERA on the road as well.

Cueto is so far 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with two walks in a no-decision to the A’s on Sunday. While he’s struggled over the three starts since returning from the DL, I still don’t think there’s any need to panic. Regression was imminent after his blistering start, but the veteran has the track record and pedigree to return to form.

The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go “under” the number in 45 of 75 against right-handed starters already this season, while San Francisco has seen the total go “under” the number in 35 of 60 against right-handed starters this year. Look for these

The set-up: This series features a couple of big mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors go with Gio Gonzalez, while the home side goes with Trevor Richards.

The pitchers: Gonzalez is so far 6-7 with a 3.94 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Brewers on Monday, allowing five earned runs off six hits over six innings in the eventual setback. Gonzalez has struggled a bit of late, but I still believe he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his counterpart tonight.

Richards is so far 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over 6.2 innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Sunday. While he’s looked decent over the last two weeks, I’ll preach caution, as note that he still owns a poor 1.46 WHIP and pedestrian 63:32 K/BB over 69.1 frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 42-28 in its last 70 as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is just 18-31 in its last 49 as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I’m banking on the hard-hitting visiting side taking advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and the price in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Ariel Jurado, while the home side goes with ace Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Jurado is so far 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. Jurado is filing the void left by Cole Hamels, so his spot in the rotation may come down to this single outing for the next while. In his one other appearance in the majors this season he was blown up on the road.

Verlander is so far 10-5 with a 2.19 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless in a win over the Angels on Saturday, giving up five hits, walking two and striking out 11. Verlander had actually been quite pedestrian over three previous starts, so the hard-throwing right-hander will now look to build off this latest effort (note that he’s 8-2 with a tiny 1.81 ERA on the road though.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is 29-43 (-9.4 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Houston is 44-21 (+9.4 units) against right-handed starters. This one has “b-l-o-w-o-u-t” written all over it. Play on the Astros on the run-line.

The set-up: This series features some even match ups, but this isn’t one of them in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom, while the home side goes with Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: deGrom is so far 5-5 with a 1.71 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over eight innings in a loss to San Diego on Monday, also going on to strikeout ten. DeGrom has now gone 17 straight starts with allowing three earned runs or fewer. Note that he’s 3-2 with a 1.79 ERA on the road as well.

Williams is so far 8-7 with a 4.11 ERA. He comes in off a win over Cleveland on Monday, going six scoreless with one strikeout. Williams has been hit or miss this year, but note that he’s still owns a pedestrian 4.56 ERA at home.

The pick: DeGrom has been the victim of poor run support this season, but his numbers definitely put him in Cy Young contention. Williams has been “ok” over the last couple of weeks, but I think he’s in over his head in this matchup. My focus is on the starters and deGrom is undervalued here in my opinion. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a number of relatively “even” match ups on the mound, but I think the Phillies have the advantage in this one. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Matt Harvey.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 7-8 with a 4.05 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings and struck out seven as well in a victory over San Diego on Sunday. Velasquez would throw 58 of his 87 pitches for strikes and he started 15 of the 24 opponents he faced with a strike. Over his last two starts he’s now posted ten strikeouts over 13 scoreless frames of work.

Harvey is so far 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA. He’s moving in the opposite direction of Velasquez now, most recently giving up eight runs over 3.2 innings, including conceding four home runs. Note that Harvey owns a 5.72 ERA in all “home” games this year also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 45-34 (+10.7 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Cincinnati is just 32-44 (-6.4 units) against right-handed starters. I like Velasquez to build of his recent performances and to get the better of Harvey once it’s all said and done. Play on the Phillies.

The set-up: Two hungry veterans square off in this National League matchup on Friday night and in my opinion, the home side has the advantage. The Brewers send Chase Anderson to the hill, while the Giants go with Madison Bumgarner.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with two walks over four innings while striking out six in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Saturday. Note that he would labor by throwing 104 pitches over the four innings.

Bumgarner is so far 3-3 with a 3.19 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off two hits with five strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision to the A’s on Saturday. It was his shortest outing of the 2018 campaign, so I’m not reading too much into one shaky performance. Note as well that Bumgarner is a “lights out” 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA at home so far this year.

The pick: Milwaukee is 58-46 overall, but just 25-26 on the road. San Francisco is 52-51 overall, but a much better 31-19 (+9.8 unit) in all home games. I’m banking on Bumgarner bouncing back and for Anderson to take a step back. Lay the price, play on the Giants.

analysis soonThe set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the Diamondbacks on the “run-line” the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to ace Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with Luis Perdomo.

The pitchers: Greinke is so far 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA. Greinke most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings while striking out 13 and walking one in a win over Colorado on Sunday. Note that it was the sixth straight start in which he’s allowed two or fewer runs.

Perdomo is so far 1-5 with a 6.99 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. Perdomo is so far 0-4 with an 11.29 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Perdomo has shown nothing whatsoever to suggest that he’s going to suddenly “flip a switch” and regain his form. In fact, the right-hander will likely be moved back to the bullpen shortly when others become healthy. Greinke on the other hand has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and I look for that trend to carry over here with another dominant performance. Play on the Diamondbacks on the “run line.”

The set-up: I think Kyle Freeland will continue his strong play at home, while I believe Sean Manea will struggle in this difficult venue for Oakland.

The pitchers: Manaea is so far 9-6 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a victory over San Francisco on Sunday. Manaea has exceeded expectations to this point, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in all “night” games.

Freeland is so far 8-6 with a 3.28 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs over five innings in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Note though that it was just the fourth this time this year that he’s given up more than three earned runs. Additionally note that Freeland owns a sharp 3.1 per nine innings walk rate over 120.2 frames of work this year.

The pick: I think Manaea struggles in this difficult venue and also in playing under the National League format. Freeland on the other hand has a major advantage with the familiarity in my opinion and in the end, I believe that’ll be the difference. Play on the Rockies.

The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the defending champs on the “run line” the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors go with Yovani Gallardo, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Gallardo is so far 4-1 with a 7.18 ERA. Gallardo comes in off a strong outing against the Tribe on Sunday, going six scoreless, striking out one and walking four. I’ll point out though that it was the first start this year that Gallardo has given up less than three earned runs. To go along with his atrocious ERA, he also owns a terrible 21:17 K/BB spanning 36.1 innings.

Keuchel is so far 8-8 with a 3.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings in a win over the Angels on Friday. Over his last four starts Kuechel is now 4-0 and he’s posted 18 strikeouts in the process.

The pick: Gallardo has been consistently inconsistent all year and after his latest gem, a predictable “letdown” looks imminent to me. Keuchel on the other hand has finally “found his groove” and I look for the veteran to continue his progression. Lay the 1.5 runs, play the Astros on the “run line.”

The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the hard-hitting home side on the “run line” the correct call in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn, while the Red Sox go with ace Chris Sale.

The pitchers: Lynn is so far 7-8 with a 5.23 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off three hits with six walks over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. Lynn has struggled in July, posting a 7.1 BB/9 and a 7.13 ERA spanning just 17.2 frames of work.

Sale is so far 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against Detroit on Sunday, striking out nine in the process. Sale has now given up just five runs over his last 54 frames, to go along with 87 strikeouts. His 2.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 197:31 K/BB over 135 frames lead the league in most categories.

The pick: Lynn’s been a disaster overall this season and he’s seemingly gotten worse as it has worn on. It’s been the exact opposite for Sale though, who has gotten stronger with each start. I look for those trends to carry over here. Lay the 1.5 runs, play on the Red Sox on the “run line.”

The set-up: I think Trevor Cahill is well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The home side sends the venerable Bartolo Colon to the hill.

The pitchers: Cahill is so far 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a win over the Giants on Saturday. Cahill would induce 13 swinging strikes on only 79 pitches. Note that he now owns a very respectable 1.02 WHIP over 58 innings.

Colon is far 4-8 with a 4.85 ERA. Colon has been more “miss” than “hit” this season, as he’s regressed considerably after a decent start to the 2018 campaign. Note that he owns a 5.01 ERA at home also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 41-26 (+19.2 units) already this year against right-handed starters, while Texas is only 29-41 (-7.4 units) against right-handed starters this season. I think Cahill outlasts Colon and I look for the red hot A’s to get the job done in the end. Lay the price.

The set-up: Two starters who have looked brilliant at times and poor in others so far this season meet on Thursday night and everything points to a “slug-fest” in my opinion. The visitors go with Stephen Matz, while the home side goes with Nick Kingham.

The pitchers: Matz is so far 4-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He returned from the break to get shelled for five runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. Matz has been decent overall this year, but his latest start is definitely a worry if you’re a Mets fan.

Kingham is so far 5-4 with a 4.11 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off four hits over 6.1 innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Kingham has admittedly been quite sharp over the last month, however I’ll point out that the rookie still has a poor 5.51 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Mets have seen the total go “over” the number in 17 of their last 27 road games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Pirates have seen the total go “over” in 52 of their last 85 as a home favorite -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Two starters who struggled over the first half meet on Thursday night and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors go with Jake Junis, while the home side goes with Sonny Gray.

The pitchers: Junis is so far 5-10 with a 5.03 ERA. Junis most recently allowed one run off four hits with two walks over four innings while striking out six in a no-decision to the Twins on Saturday. Junis looked decent, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-8 with a 5.86 ERA in all “night” games.

Gray is so far 7-7 with a 5.34 ERA. Gray gave up three runs over 5.1 innings in a win over the Mets in his first start back from the All Star game. Gray’s been better of late and while he’s been better on the road than at home, I’ll point out that he’s still a terrible 3-6 with a 6.60 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: New York is the most prolific offensive team in the league and while the Royals aren’t known for their offensive prowess, the visitors catch a break here facing the erratic Gray. Junis has been consistently inconsistent all year and I believe he’ll predictably stumble in this difficult venue. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Two starters who have struggled  matchup together on Thursday night and everything points to more issues for each in the second. The visitors go with Hunter Wood, while the home side goes with Alex Cobb.

The pitchers: Wood isn't expected to go long, just an inning or two. In his last start, he did allow one run and two hits (in just two innings). 

Cobb is so far 2-13 with a 6.17 ERA. He came out of the break and gave up four runs off four hits with three walks over 3.5 innings in a loss to Toronto on Saturday. Unfortunately for Cobb a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA in friendly confines so far.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Baltimore has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last ten against the division. This number is a little low in my opinion, play the “over.”

The set-up: The talent gap on the mound is big. Their is also a big discrepancy at the plate as well. Both those factors combine to make the home side on the “run line” the correct call in my opinion. The visitors go with James Shields, while the home side hands the ball to Tyler Skaggs.

The pitchers: Shields is so far 4-11 with a 4.26 ERA. Shields earned a loss in his first start back after the break, giving up two runs over seven innings in a setback to the Mariners on Friday. Shields has been on a decent run of late, but note that he’s still a pathetic 1-6 with a 5.47 ERA on the road.

Skaggs is so far 7-6 with a 2.68 ERA. Skaggs gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Astros on Friday. Over his last seven trips to the hill he’s posted six quality efforts and to go along with his sharp ERA, note that he also sports a 1.22 WHIP and impressive 106:31 K/BB over 104 innings this season

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 6-16 (-4.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range, while LA is 7-1 (+5.1 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. No upsets here, lay the price, play on the Angels.