The set-up: Note that this is a revenge game for the Dream after they fell 72-64 in LA earlier in the season. This is a matchup of two of the better defensive clubs in the league. It also features two of the best players in Tiffany Hayes and Candace Parker.

The teams: The Dream are 15-9 and in second place. They’ll be eager to avenge the earlier loss and to stay ahead of the No. 3 Sparks. Atlanta comes in on top form, having won seven straight, while LA has been shaky with a 4-6 record over its last ten. 

Atlanta most recently layed the smack down in Seattle with an 87-74 win. Elizabeth Williams had 17 points for the Dream in that one..

The Sparks got back on track with a win over the Chicago Sky in their latest action. Parker had 19 points in that one, while Nneka Ogwumike had 18 points and 11 boards. 

The pick: As mentioned off the top, this is a matchup of two of the better defensive clubs in the league, as the Sparks allow 77.4 PPG, while the Dream allow 78.9. But LA has struggled with offensive consistency over the last month, while Atlanta is surging right now, playing with complete chemistry. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the visitors tonight. Play on Atlanta.

The set-up: Carlos Rodon hasn’t been completely terrible this year, but I still think he’s in over his head in this matchup. The home side goes with Felix Pena in this one.

The pitchers: Rodon is so far 2-3 with a 3.56 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d allow zero runs over 7.1 innings in a win over St. Louis. As I stated off the top, Rodon has been decent this season, but note that he’s been horrible on the road with an 0-3, 5.16 ERA record.

Pena is so far 1-0 with a 3.42 ERA. In his final start before the break he’d given up one earned run off three hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers. Over 26.1 innings he’s posted a respectable 1.33 WHIP. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Chicago is just 22-55 (-22.2 units) the last three season as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while LA is 47-30 (+4.4 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I look for Pena to outduel Rodon and for the Angels to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: I think this is a very fair trade off (laying the mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs.) The visitors go with Clay Buchholz, while the home side goes with Kyle Hendricks.

The teams: Buchholz is so far 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA. He landed on the ten-day DL prior to the All Star Game, but he’s been given the green light to proceed with his bounce back season, coming into this one with a 2.56 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a 31:7 K/BB over 38.2 innings.

Hendricks is so far 6-8 with a 3.99 ERA. Hendricks opened the second half with a no-decision against the Cardinals on Thursday, allowing three runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings. So far he’s already been shelled for a career-high 18 homers this season and note that he’s just 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to lay the price for the extra runs. Play on Arizona on the “run line.”

The set-up: The middle game of this American League series sees Twins’ ace Jose Berrios go up against Jays rookie Ryan Borucki. While he’s looked decent in his limited time and while the sky could indeed be the limit for Borucki’s career, I still think he’s in over his head in this matchup.

The pitchers: Berrios is so far 9-7 with a 3.68 ERA. Berrios earned a no-decision in his final outing before the break, giving up six runs while striking out five over six innings against the Rays. Starts like that have been pretty rare for Berrios this season though, who comes in having still posted quality efforts in six of his last eight trips to the hill (is worthy to note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA in all night games. Respectable for sure.)

Borucki is so far 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA. Borucki returns from Triple-A to make this start, so far he’s been shelled for nine earned runs while posting a pedestrian 21:10 K/BB over 23 frames of work.

The pick: Let’s face it, both teams have been disappointments this year. Neither will be in the postseason. Each has had to deal with significant injury issues. For this one though, I’m concentrating on the starting pitchers and in my opinion, there’s no reason not to think that Berrios won’t be able to get the better of his still unproven/younger counterpart. Lay the price, play on Minnesota.

The set-up: Texas closed out a series with Cleveland over the weekend, while the A’s were at home in an inter-league matchup with the Giants. On paper it would appear as if these starters are evenly matched, but I think Cole Hamels has the slight advantage at home. The visitors go with the erratic Brett Anderson.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 1-2 with a 6.08 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d give up three runs over 3.1 innings to San Francisco in what turned out to be a no-decision. Anderson has how now managed to throw six innings only once in six trips to the hill this season (owns a poor 1.86 WHIP over 23.2 innings).

Hamels is so far 5-8 with a 4.36 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d give up four runs over 6.1 innings in a victory over the Orioles. Hamels admittedly struggled over his final three starts, but the break comes at a great time for the veteran and I believe the southpaw responds here with the extra time off (is 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA in all “night” games YTD.)

The pick: Hamels is the correct call here in my opinion. The veteran gets back on track in his first start in the second half, while I predict Anderson’s inconsistencies get carried over in this difficult venue. Play on the Rangers.

The set-up: Pittsburgh won big in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon, while the Indians were on the road in Texas. Clearly Cleveland has the advantage on the mound with ace Corey Kluber, but I think the Pirates can carry their momentum over from yesterday’s convincing victory and keep this one close enough to at the very least, cover with the spread once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Williams is so far 7-7 with a 4.36 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d go five scoreless against the Nationals. I think Williams benefits here in the AL format and also with the extra time off because of the break.

Kluber is so far 12-5 with a 2.76 ERA. Kluber was forced to miss the All Star game because of an injection in his knee. Kluber was then shut-down for a week, but he’s been cleared to go here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Pittsburgh is a red hot 10-2 (+6.8 units) this year in all inter-league games, while Cleveland is just 18-25 (-14.9 units) against clubs with winning records. Look for the Bucs to keep the good times rolling with a competitive effort in the opener of this inter-league series, but grab the extra run-and-a-half as insurance.

The set-up: LA was busy in Milwaukee on Sunday, while the Phillies had a double-header at home against the Padres. Two starters which put together above average first half performances collide in the opener of this one, but I believe Ross Stripling and the visitors have the advantage. The home side goes with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-2 with a 2.08 ERA. In his final start before the break he’d allow just six hits and one walk with five strikeouts over six shutout frames of work. 58 of Stripling’s 90 pitches went for strikes and it pushed his walk rate down to 1.3 BB/9. Stripling also comes in confident with the 4-2, 1.81 ERA record on the road.

Eflin is so far 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA. It’s hard to say anything negative about Eflin, as for the most part he’s exceeded expectations for the Phillies this season. But note that he did land on the 10-day DL prior to the All Star break because of a blister issue, so I’m definitely thinking that the extra rest will in fact lead to some rust in this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 57-38 the last three seasons as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Philadelphia is just 20-34 in the same time span as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I think Stripling outlasts Eflin and I like the hard-hitting visiting side to take the opener of this National League series. Play on the Dodgers.

The set-up: The Padres and Phillies were rained out yesterday and because of that, they’ll play a double-header on Sunday. We’re focusing on the second game, as I expect the home side to have the upper-hand in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Luis Perdomo, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez.

The pitchers: Perdomo is so far just 1-4 with a 7.55 ERA. Perdomo has been a disaster in his limited time for the Padres this season, having to deal with injury issues.

Velasquez is so far 5-8 with a 4.39 ERA. He finished the first half with a strong start against the Mets, scattering two hits over six scoreless innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. While his ERA isn’t the best, note that he does own an impressive 110:35 K/BB over 94.1 innings so far this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is a terrible 28-43 (-7.5 units) this season in all “night” games, while Philly is 34-27 (+7.3 units) in all “night” contests. I think Perdomo struggles after his scheduled start was delayed and I think Velasquez can take advantage. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Phillies in Game 2.

The set-up: Arizona’s ace Zack Grienke has been “lights out” at home, and I expect that trend to carry over here. The Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela is in over his head in my opinion.

The pitchers: Senzatela is so far 3-2 with a 5.34 ERA. He comes off the ten day DL due to a blister issue, but in his final start before the break he’d give up six runs over six innings in a loss to the Mariners.

Greinke is so far 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA. In his final start before the mid summer classic he’d go eight scoreless in a victory over Atlanta, walking one and striking out seven. To go along with his sharp ERA, Greinke also owns a 1.15 WHP and 9.2 K/9 over 20 starts this season.

The pick: And as I mentioned off the top, Greinke has been better at home (4-1, 2.56 ERA) than on the road (6-4, 3.77) so far this year.

This is a mismatch of epic proportions on the mound in my opinion and it makes the home side well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: One of these starters has been consistent from the “get go,” while the other has been a complete train wreck. The visitors go with Mike Clevinger, while the home side goes with Yovani Gallardo.

The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 7-5 with a 3.47 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs (four earned) while striking out eight in a sub-par setback to the hard-hitting Yankees on Saturday. Note though that it was only the second time this season that he’s given up multiple home runs in a game. Also note that Clevinger has been sharp on the road this year with a 4-2, 2.61 ERA record.

Gallardo is so far 3-1 with an 8.60 ERA. In his final start before the break he’d be rocked for six runs off seven hits over five innings against Boston. Over 30.1 innings of work this season Gallardo owns a disturbing 8.60 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 20:13 K/BB.

The pick: Gallardo has been downright terrible and I don’t think the All Star break will change anything here for the veteran. Clevinger on the other hand was clearly fading as the first half closed, so the extra time off will be extremely beneficial in my opinion.

The set-up: The Giants rallied for a 5-1 win in yesterday’s inter-league matchup and I think the visitors will find a way to the winners circle on Saturday night as well. San Francisco goes with Madison Bumgarner on the mound this evening, while Oakland goes with Trevor Cahill.

The pitchers: Bumgarner is so far 3-3 with a 2.90 ERA. The veteran closed the first half strong with back to back strong outings. Bumgarner started the year injured and after a couple of “ho hum” starts after returning to the rotation, the big southpaw has gotten progressively better with each performance.

Cahill is so far 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA. Cahill has also had to deal with injury this year and while the veteran has been sharp at home, I think he’s going to have his hands full today with this talented Giants’ line-up.

The pick: Both teams come in with winning records, but note that San Francisco is 33-27 against right-handed pitchers this season, while Oakland is just 15-17 against left-handed starters. I look for these strong trends to hold true again here. Play on the Giants.

The set-up: Pittsburgh humbled Cincinnati 12-1 yesterday. Suffice it to say, I think “revenge” is in the cards on Saturday night. The visitors go with Nick Kingham, while the home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani.

The pitchers: Kingham is so far 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Kingham for the most part has performed admirably in his first year in the big leagues. If he’s had one glaring weakness though, clearly it’s been his performance on the road (just 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA away from friendly confines.)

DeSclafani is so far 4-2 with a 5.32 ERA. He’s struggled at times this season, but note that the Reds are 35-25 (+11.5 units) in their last 60 at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125.

The pick: The Pirates exploded for the convincing victory yesterday, but note that they’re still a terrible 20-25 (-3.4 units) on the road this year. After yesterday’s pathetic effort, I’m expecting a big response from the home side in this one. Play on Cincinnati.

The set-up: The Red Sox held on for a 1-0 win yesterday as a -200 favorite. Suffice it to say, I’m predicting a more decisive victory for the visitors on Saturday night. Boston goes with Brian Johnson in this one, while Detroit goes with Mike Fiers.

The pitchers: Johnson is so far 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA. He returns rested after a stint on the DL and the All Star break. Johnson hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been sharp on the road with a 1-1, 2.79 ERA this season.

Fiers is so far 6-6 with a 3.70 ERA. Fiers for the most part has been solid for Detroit this year and it’s difficult to point out too many negative faults. If he has had one though, it’s been his play in all “night” games where he’s just 3-6 with a 4.56 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 40-17 (+9.3 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Detroit is just 13-29 (-5.4 units) against teams with winning records this season. Also note that the Tigers are a terrible 21-37 (-4.8 units) following a loss, while Boston is 48-20 (+17.8 units) following a win. I’m banking on the hard-hitting Red Sox to post a lop-sided victory tonight, so lay the price.

The set-up: Winnipeg will be eager to get back on track here after falling 20-17 at BC last weekend, a game in which it held a 17-0 half-time lead. The Blue Bombers open a home and home set against an Argos team which just finished splitting a home and home series with the Eskimos.

The teams: Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols threw three second half INT’s last weekend and his team would fall to a disappointing 2-3 on the season. RB Andrew Harris though was a bright spot with 139 yards on the ground. Harris now leads the league with 449 rushing yards over five games.

The Argos go with QB James Franklin again, as he makes his third start in place of the injured Ricky Ray (lost for the season.) Last week Franklin looked to receiver SJ Green, who had 110 yards on ten catches last weekend. Previous to that though Green had just 105 yards total over three games to open the season. RB James Wilder Jr. looked pathetic last week though with just 26 yards of offense.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of three points or less, wile Toronto is a terrible 11-17 ATS in its last 28 when playing the role of underdog. I think Nichols bounces back, while all sins point to Franklin and company struggling again. Lay the points, play on the Bombers.

The set-up: While he’s looked decent in his limited time for the A’s this year, I think Edwin Jackson takes a step back in this tough interleague matchup. Derek Rodriguez and the Giants will look to take advantage.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA. The rookie has completely exceeded expectations and his peripherals suggest that his early numbers are sustainable. Rodriguez is so far 1-1 with a 3.79 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA in all “night” games.

Jackson is so far 1-1 with a 2.59 ERA. Jackson struggled in consecutive starts before the break after opening strong for his new team. It’s hard to trust the veteran after consecutive years of complete ineptitude, as note that he was just 3-5 with a 6.40 ERA in all “home” games last year.

The pick: I think we can throw stats out the window here. I’m basing this particular play on the starting pitchers. Rodriguez enters on top form, while Jackson looks poised for a major letdown against this tough Giants’ line-up. Play on San Francsico.

The set-up: Liz Cambage scored a WNBA best 53 points in the Dallas Wings’ victory last Tuesday, but they’re in action on Thursday night against a tough Washington Mystics side at home. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Chicago will look to take advantage and to also avenge an earlier loss to the Wings.

The teams: Dallas is not surprisingly led by Cambage with 21.4 PPG, while Skylar Diggins-Smith adds 6.5 assists. Cambage also leads the way on the glass with 9.2 boards per night.

The Sky are led by Allie Quigley with 16.1 PPG, while Courtenay Vandersloot adds 7.6 assists. Cheyenne Parker chips in 6.3 boards per game.

The pick: Clearly Dallas will be tired here in the second game of the back-to-back. Chicago though comes in rested and focused and take it for what you will, but note that the Sky are 16-8 ATS in their last 24 in trying to revenge an “in season” SU loss to an opponent in which it gave up 100 or more points in. A great situational play on the Chicago Sky.

The set-up: Both team’s are 2-2 to open the season. While the “under” may be 3-0-1 in the last four in this series, I’m predicting that these two hungry sides open up the playbook and push the pace from start to finish, ultimately pushing this one “over” once it’s all said and done.

The teams: This is the first meeting between the clubs this year, but last season the Redblacks won both match ups.

BC will be out for revenge, but it’ll also be looking to build off its come from behind 20-17 victory over Winnipeg last weekend. The Lions are still desperate for a breakout offensive performance, having not scored more than 22 points in a game this year. Travis Lulay returned from injury and he looked good for BC, going 28 of 41 for 326 yards and a TD. The Lions have struggled with consistency on the road, so they clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here.

Ottawa will be eager to take out its frustrations after a dismal 27-3 loss to Calgary last week at home. The Redblacks managed just 169 total yards of offense. QB Trevor Harris passed for only 93 yards and was picked twice.

The pick: While each team struggled offensively last week, I believe the conditions are right for a more wide open affair between these two non-conference opponents. Take it for what you will as well, but BC has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Ottawa has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six as a home fav in the same points range. Play the “over.”

The set-up: I think Dan Straily and the offensively challenged Marlins struggle in the opener of this interleague series. Nate Eovaldi and the Rays will look to take advantage.

The pitchers: Straily is so far 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA. He’s been hit or miss this year and he comes into this one with a 1-3, 3.67 ERA record on the road.

Eovaldi is so far 3-4 with a 4.59 ERA. He has looked brilliant at times this year and extremely pedestrian in others. Eovaldi has however been at his absolute best in front of the home town crowd this season by going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA thus far.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Miami is a poor 14-17 in its last 31 when playing with three or more days of rest while Tampa is 7-2 in its last nine when playing with three or more days of rest. I like the Rays to take advantage of this favorable matchup and for Eovaldi to out duel his interleague counterpart. Play on Tampa.

The set-up: Two pitchers who put together great first half efforts go head-to-head in this National League contest on Friday afternoon and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel.” The visitors go with Joe Flaherty, while the home side goes with Jon Lester.

The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA. In his last start before the break he was forced to leave early after allowing three runs (just two earned) off four hits over 2.1 innings in a no-decision to San Francisco. Overall though Flaherty has been consistent this year and he’ll surely benefit from the extra time off. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in all “day” games as well.

Lester is so far 12-2 with a 2.58 ERA. The veteran has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and there’s no question that he’ll also have benefited from the extra time off because of the All Star Classic. Note that he’s 5-1 with a minuscule 1.98 ERA at home this season and 7-0 with a 2.22 ERA in all “day” games as well.

The pick: Recent form displayed by these starters, coupled with the overall situation point to runs being at a premium in this afternoon matchup. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Dallas Wings’ Liz Cambage just broke the WNBA record with 53 points in her team’s 104-87 win over New York. Cambage is only one player, but after such a momentous occasion, I believe the entire team suffers a mental letdown here. These teams haven’t played yet this year, as this marks the first of three between them. Washington and Elena Delle Donne will look to take advantage.

The teams: Delle Donne leads the Mystics with 20.6 PPG, while Natasha Cloud adds 4.5 assists. Delle Donne is also the leader on the boards with 6.9 per game.

Cambage leads the way offensively for the Wings with 21.4 PPG, while Skylar Diggins-Smith adds 6.5 assists. Cambage also leads the way with 9.2 boards per night.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after being held to 80 points or less in its previous contest (fell 80-77 to open its five-game road trip), while Dallas is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 100 points or more. With a game tomorrow night in Chicago, I think the Mystics also get caught “looking ahead” in this one. Play on Washington.

The set-up: The Roughriders are 2-2 and the Ti-Cats are also 2-2. Hamilton doesn’t have a QB controversy on its hands right now, with Jeremiah Masoli under center. Saskatchewan has issues at the QB position however, with Brandon Bridges seeing time for an injured Zach Collaros this year. Regardless of that fact though, I believe the visitors will keep this one a lot more competitive than what this line would suggest.

The teams: Note that the Riders have won five of their last seven road games outright. Bridges will be leaning heavily on his run game here, a unit which has so far averaged 103.8 YPG. Jerome Messam so far has 110 yards on 32 carries. Defensively though Saskatchewan has been tough, allowing 23.8 points and 366 yards per game. Keep your eyes on Derrick Moncrief, who leads the teams with 20 tackles thus far.

Masoli is so far completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards and four touchdowns. He also has four INT’s though. The ground game is averaging 114.8 YPG, led by Mercer Timmis, who has 175 yards and four touchdowns already. Hamilton has also been strong on the defensive side this year, allowing an average of 21 points and 338.8 YPG.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan is 5-2 in is last seven following its bye week, while Hamilton is still only 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Roughriders have won four straight in this series and while I’m definitely not calling for an outright upset here or anything like that, as I stated off the top, I do believe that everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab as many points as you can, play on Saskatchewan.

The set-up: While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra run-and-a-half. The visitors go with Carlos Martinez and the home side goes with Kyle Hendricks.

The pitchers: Martinez is so far 6-5 with a 3.08 ERA. He most recently beat the Giants, giving up one run off six hits over seven innings while striking out three. It was Martinez’s third straight victory and his ninth quality start of the season. After a small shaky stretch, Martinez is back on track across the board and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 4-3, 3.57 ERA record on the road.

Hendricks is so far 6-8 with a 3.92 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over eight innings in a no-decision against San Francisco. Starts like that though were few and far between over the first half for Hendricks, who has just two quality efforts out of his last nine trips to the hill. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine when playing with three or more days rest, while Chicago is just 15-17 in its last 32 when playing with three or more days of rest. Martinez comes in as the much more consistent hurler and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t keep that momentum rolling with extra time off. Hendricks comes off a strong start, but I believe his inconsistencies come back to haunt him again. Play on St. Louis on the run-line.

The set-up: Home floor advantage has meant little so far in the season series between these clubs, with the Fever winning 71-59 at Minnesota, before the Lynx responding with an 87-65 win at Indiana a week later. After beating the Fever on July 11th, Minnesota has since dropped two straight home games. The Fever though are in a complete “free fall” right now, having dropped four in a row.

The teams: Indiana is led by Kelsey Mitchell with 13.5 PPG, while Erica Wheeler dishes out 4 assists per night. Natalie Achonwa leads the way on the boards with 6.8 per night.

The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen added 3.6 assists. Sylvia Fowles controls the boards with 11.9 per night. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indiana is 3-7 ATS in its last ten after a three games or more SU winless streak, while Minnesota is 6-2 in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS home losses. The Fever get caught “looking ahead” here to their West coast game on Friday night at the Sparks and the Lynx take full advantage and get back on track with a big effort in the final game of their current three-game home stand. Lay the points.

The set-up: Two red hot teams collide on Tuesday night. The Atlanta Dream have won four straight, while the Connecticut Sun have won two in a row. Ultimately I believe that the home court advantage will prove to be the difference maker in this one.

The teams: The Dream come in having won four straight. Atlanta is led by Tiffany Hayes with 17.3 PPG, while Alex Bentley dishes out 4.3 assists per night. Jessica Breland leads the charge on the boards with 8.2 a night.

The Sun have won back-to-back games, most recently 83-64 on the road in Minnesota (I had Connecticut in that one) and they are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 15 points per night, while Alyssa Thomas adds 4.5 assists per game. Thomas also leads the way on the boards with 9.4 per night.

The pick: These teams are very familiar with each other and as I mentioned off the top, I do indeed believe that “home court” will play a significant role in the outcome of this one, as note that the Sun smashed the Dream 74-58 at home in the first meeting between the clubs this year, before Atlanta then won both subsequent home games, 82-77 and 75-70. With a chance for revenge after back-to-back losses in this series, I look for Connecticut to build off its recent win skein, while everything does definitely point to a letdown finally for the Dream after their recent run of success. Play on the Sun.

The set-up: The last time these teams played, the Sun smashed the Lynx 89-75. I’m expecting another decisive affair here as well. Connecticut comes in ranked third in the East with an 11-10 record, while Minnesota is ranked fifth in the West with a 12-9 record.

The teams: The Sun are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 15.7 PPG, while Alyssa Thomas directs the show with 4.7 assists a night. Thomas also leads the nightly charge on the glass with 9.7 per game.

The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.6 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen chips in 3.8 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles contributes with 12 board per game.

The pick: The Sun broke a three-game slide with a 91-87 win over Phoenix on Friday and I think they’ll carry that momentum over at home here as well. The Lynx come in off a deflating 85-77 home loss to Las Vegas and I believe they’re primed for another letdown here also. Play on Connecticut.

The set-up: I think the massive talent gap on the mound in this one makes Jon Lester and the hard-hitting Cubbies well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The Padres go with the erratic Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Lester is so far 11-2 with a 2.45 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits and three walks over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Sunday. Previous to this sub-par effort Lester had allowed just six earned runs over a 37 innings stretch, so I’m definitely not going to over-react. Note that he’s 6-1 with a 2.96 ERA on the road this year as well.

Lauer is so far 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA. He most recently allowed one earned run over five innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Lauer though would allow nine batters to reach base, ultimately he was the beneficiary of a few timely double plays. Note that he’s just 3-3 with a 4.58 ERA at home this year.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Chicago is already 28-17 (+2.6 units) this season in all “day” games (also 16-6, +7.3 units against southpaws), while San Diego is just 12-16 (-1.7 units) in all “day” games (and only 10-20, -8.1 units against left-handed starters.) I’m banking on Lester coming in focused. Lay the price, play on Chicago.

The set-up: I think the Nationals offer great value in this bounce back spot after yesterday’s. The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson, while the home side goes with Corey Oswalt.

The pitchers: Hellickson is so far 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA. Hellickson has for the most part been solid this season (other than a disastrous outing against the Marlins on July 5th) and he’s been extra special on the road with a 3-1, 2.70 ERA thus far (also owns a minuscule 1.59 ERA in all “day” games.)

Oswalt is so far 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits over four innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Wednesday. He looked decent in just his second career start, but after posting a 5.32 ERA in Triple A and a 7.94 ERA in the majors, clearly the rookie still has some work to do before he can be trusted.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 37-29 against right-handed starters this year, while New York is just 28-39 (-11.9 units) against right-handed starters this season. The Nationals are desperate for a victory, they’re out for revenge after yesterday’s setback and they have the better pitcher on the mound. Great value here, play on Washington.

The set-up: Masahiro Tanaka has struggled at times this year and I think he’s going to have his hands full in this difficult venue on Sunday afternoon. Trevor Bauer though is putting together his strongest campaign ever and I think he has a major advantage in friendly confines. 

The pitchers: Tanaka is so far 7-2 with a 4.68 ERA. Tanaka returns from the DL to make this start, his first since June 8th. He looked decent in one re-hab outing, but note that he still owns the sub-par 5.01 ERA on the road this season.

Bauer is so far 8-6 with a 2.23 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits with a walk and eight strikeouts over eight innings in a victory over the Royals on Wednesday. Over his last six outings he’s struck out 59 batters and posted a 1.87 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Note that Bauer is 4-1 with a 2.19 ERA at home so far this year.

The pick: Tanaka got back on track after a shaky start before hitting the DL, but clearly he draws a tough task/opponent right out of the gate. Bauer on the other hand has been “on point” from Day 1 this year and he has in fact been getting stronger as the season has worn on. I like Bauer to continue that progression and overall I believe this is a great price. Play on Cleveland.

The set-up: France comes in off a 1-0 regulation win over Belgium, while Croatia knocked off host Russia in a shootout to advance. France has gotten better as this tournament has worn on, but Croatia has proven itself to be a “hard out.” Suffice it to say, I’m expecting nothing less here either. The French may be the more talented team on paper, but the Croatian’s have the bigger “heart.” I predict this one will see extra time or the shootout.

The teams: Croatia’s defense will be focused on slowing down French teenage phenom Kylian Mbappe, who has scored three goals so far. Antoine Greizmann continues to be a focal point for France as well, as he has 12 goals and eight assists over his last 20 games for his country.

Luka Modric is one of three Croatian’s with two goals in this tournament. Ivan Rakitic has helped his team in the knockout round, as he has two crucial goals in both shoot-out victories.

The pick: France may have never lost to Croatia in its history, but I think its over-confidence will prove its undoing here. The English found out the hard way that this Croatian team is no joke and while the French may in fact go on to win the title, I’m banking on it being anything but “easy.” Play on Croatia +0.5 goal.

The set-up: While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I look for the hungry home side to at the very least take this one right down to the wire. In fact, it’s an “immediate revenge” scenario after BC lost 41-19 in Winnipeg last weekend. BC has struggled against Winnipeg for a couple of years now, but I expect that trend to finally start going the other way this weekend.

The teams: Winnipeg got a big game defensively from LB Adam Bighill, who faced his former team for the first time last week as he’d post six tackles and make two interceptions. QB Matt Nichols was pretty mediocre though, going 16 of 27 for 162 yards.

BC comes in focused, as it comes in off back-to-back losses, allowing 82 points in the process. The Lions struggled on both sides of the ball last week, but desperation breeds motivation in my opinion. Both the struggling Jon Jennings and the injured Travis Lulay took snaps in practice this week.

The pick: Note that the Blue Bombers are interestingly just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 points or more in their previous contest. I’m banking on BC bouncing back and fighting for its life in this revenge spot in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points.

The set-up: I think that Mike Clevinger will benefit from throwing in front of the home town crowd tonight. The hard-hitting Yankees send veteran CC Sabathia to the hill.

The teams: Sabathia is so far 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA. Most recently he was shelled for five runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out four over five innings in a loss on Monday. Sabathia’s weakness this year has been his play on the road, where he’s just 2-3 with a 4.42 ERA.

Clevinger is so far 7-4 with a 3.34 ERA. He comes in off an outing to forget as well, allowing five runs off seven hits while also striking out 11 over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Monday.

The pick: Clevinger though hadn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his previous five starts and I think he’ll bounce back in fine fashion in Cleveland. I look for Sabathia’s road struggles to once again come back to haunt the veteran here as he closes out the first half with a whimper.

The set-up: Two pitchers who have to this point put together great 2018 campaigns go head-to-head in this one. Arizona goes with Zack Greinke, while the Braves go with Sean Newcomb. Ultimately I believe that Newcomb will benefit from the friendly confines.

The teams: Greinke is so far 9-5 with 3.39 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Sunday. It was his shortest start so far this season. Note that he owns a 4.31 ERA on the road, compared to 2.56 at home.

Newcomb is so far 8-4 with a 3.44 ERA. Newcomb comes off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Sunday, allowing five runs over 3.2 innings in the loss. Newcomb has admittedly struggled a bit of late, but note that he’s still a super 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is just 13-17 (-5.6 units) in all “day” games this year, while Atlanta is 20-11 (+11.9 units) in all “day” games. I like Newcomb to bounce back at home, while I expect Greinke to have another difficult time on the road. Play on Atlanta.

The set-up: The talent gap on the mound this afternoon absolutely makes the Phillies worth the price of admission in this particular matchup in my opinion. The visitors go with ace Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with Trevor Richards.

The teams: Nola is so far 12-2 with a 2.27 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless against the Mets on Monday, striking out ten and giving up one hit and one walk in the commanding effort. Nola’s been strong on the road as well with a 4-2, 2.85 ERA.

Richards is so far 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off four hits while striking out five and walking seven over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Sunday. Note that he’s an uninspiring 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadlephia is 20-13 (+7.4 units) this year in all “day” games, while Miami is just 12-19 in all “day” games. I’m expecting another dominant effort from Nola. Lay the price.

The set-up: Jose Berrios has been better at home than on the road for the Twins this year. Chris Archer has been “hit of miss” for the Rays all season though and in my opinion, I think he’s in over his head in this matchup.

The pitchers: Archer is so far 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently returned from injury to give up three runs off six hits with two walks over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to Detroit on Monday. It was his first start in over five weeks and suffice it to say, I think he’s going to struggle here as well in his second start back.

Berrios is so far 9-7 with a 3.41 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over Kansas City on Monday. Berrios has been quietly dominating for a while now, having posted quality starts in six of his last seven to the hill.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, Berrios has been better at home (7-2, 2.49 ERA) than on the road this season (2-5, 4.78). Expect that trend to continue as he takes advantage of Archer, who will surely need more time to get back to normal form after such a long lay off. Lay the price.

The set-up: Toronto was down starting QB Ricky Ray and it was a 3.5 point underdog at home to these very Eskimos last week and the winless Argos would prevail outright with the 20-17 victory. Suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be pay-back time in a big way in Alberta on Friday night.

The teams: The 20 points scored by the Argos was the most they’ve put up so far this year and the 17 points allowed was the least. QB James Franklin was an efficient 16 of 22 for 217 yards, with one passing and one rushing touchdown. Declan Cross caught the winning TD pass with three minutes to play. RB James Wilder Jr. had 120 rushing yards and a score as well.

The Eskimo’s looked “out of sorts” from the “get go” last week, but I think a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Edmonton to get back on track. QB Mike Reilly was still decent in the setback, going 28 of 40 for 370 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Reilly leads the league in passing with 1,390 yards and seven major scores. 12 penalties for 126 yards was just too much for Edmonton to overcome in the end though.

The pick: Neither team has been very good for bettors over the last few seasons, but I think the difference will be the immediate “revenge factor.” Edmonton hurt itself with sloppy and undisciplined play last week and I have a hard time seeing the home side not coming in completely focused here as it looks to atone for its sub-par effort. Toronto backup Franklin looked decent at home last weekend, but I think he’ll stumble in this hostile environment. Everything points to a blowout, lay the points.

The set-up: Minnesota is 12-8, but it still sits just fourth in the competitive Western Conference. After a slow start the Las Vegas Aces have looked a bit better of late, but they are still in last place in the West with a 9-12 record. “Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor though and I think it’ll ultimately prove to be the difference maker here.

The teams: Las Vegas lost at home to Minnesota 88-73 back on June 24th. The Aces are led by A’ja Wilson with 20.6 PPG, while Kelsey Plum runs the show with 3.7 assists per night. Wilson also leads the nightly charge on the boards with 8.5 a game.

Minnesota is led by Maya Moore with 19 PPG, while Danielle Robinson dishes out 3.8 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the way in the rebounding department 11.8 per game.

The pick: The Aces have been quietly dominating, coming into this one having won three straight, most recently a blowout 98-74 victory over Chicago. After a seven-game unbeaten streak, Minnesota has split its last four games, most recently coming off an 87-65 win over Indiana. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the Aces’ improvement though and combined with the very real “revenge factor,” all signs point to the points as the correct call. Play on Las Vegas.

The set-up: After a great start to the season, Jake Arrieta has looked shaky over the last month for the Phillies. While that’s true, I still think he’ll have more than enough here to get the better of the Marlins’ Wei-Yin Chen. Great value overall on the visitors in this matchup in my opinion. 

The teams: Arrieta is so far 6-6 with a 3.47 ERA. He actually got back on track in his last start against the Pirates on Saturday by allowing two runs off six hits with one walk, while also striking out eight over seven innings. Arrieta looks to close the first half strong now and improve upon his respectable 5-4, 2.86 ERA record in all night games this season.

Chen is so far 2-6 with a 6.14 ERA. He most recently allowed seven runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to Washington on Saturday. The southpaw has struck out more than five opponents just once in its his 14 starts this year and note that he’s just 1-5 with a 6.09 ERA in all night contests.

The pick: Chen has been a major disappointment this season and he’s shown nothing whatsoever that he’ll be able to “flip a switch” here. Arrieta on the other hand clearly turned the corner again with his latest performance and there’s no reason not to think that the highly paid veteran won’t be able to carry that momentum over into this one. I’m banking on that happening, play on the Phillies.

The set-up: Calgary comes in off its bye and I look for it to continue its unbeaten 3-0 start to the 2018 campaign with another convincing victory here. These teams met in Calgary in Week 3 and the Stamps prevailed 24-14 and suffice it to say, I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards tonight.

The teams: Bo Levi Mitchell had 251 yards and two touchdowns, while Don Jackson had 84 yards a TD for Calgary in Week 3 week over Ottawa. Redblacks’ QB Trevor Harris though had just 135 yards and pick before being pulled.

Mitchell so far has 872 yards and six TD’s this season, while Jackson already has 294 yards rushing.

Harris bounced back last week in Ottawa’s 28-18 win at Montreal with 342 yards and three TD’s, but clearly he’s going to have a much more difficult time tonight against the league’s No. 1 defense, a unit which has given up just 34 points over three games thus far.

The pick: Calgary is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven Thursday night games, performing well on the “short week” (despite coming off its bye), while Ottawa is a terrible 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a victory. Expect a rested and focused Calgary to pull away for the comfortable win/cover as the game comes down the stretch.

The set-up: JA Happ has earned a spot on the All Star team this year and he’s rumored to be a part of upcoming trade talks. Happ though has struggled of late and I think that David Price and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup.

The pitchers: Happ is so far 10-5 with a 4.44 ERA. He most recently was crushed for six runs off four hits and six walks over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. It was Happ’s shortest start of the year and it made his ERA raise almost a full point. That’s now back-to-back dismal outings for Happ, a “sign of things to come” in my opinion. 

Price is so far 9-6 with a 4.44 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Saturday. The silver lining behind the “ho-hum” performance was that he’d strike out nine and walk just one. Price has struggled a bit of late, but note that he’s a sharp 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA at home thus far and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to bounce back here.

The pick: Happ’s recent form instils little confidence. I like Price to out duel his struggling counterpart and for the Red Sox to do the rest. Lay the price.

The set-up: I think Nick Pivetta will stumble in this inter-league contest. Conversely, the Orioles’ Kevin Gausman should benefit greatly by throwing on his home field in this particular matchup.

The pitchers: Pivetta is so far 5-7 with a 4.62 ERA. Pivetta most recently allowed three runs off five hits and two walks in a no-decision against the Pirates on Friday. He’d only last 2.2 innings. In his previous start he’d be rocked for seven runs over 1.2 innings in Washington, so there’s no question that he’s now trending in the incorrect direction. Note that he’s just 1-3 with a 5.61 ERA on the road as well.

Gausman is so far 4-6 with a 4.11 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off five hits over five innings with five strikeouts in a no-decision to the Twins on Saturday. Gausman comes into this one on top form, having posted a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over his last six outings. 

The pick: Note that Guasman has been solid at home all year as well with the 3.56 ERA. Pivetta’s recent slide is a sign of things to come in my opinion and I look for Gausman and the hungry home side to take advantage. Play on Baltimore.

The set-up: Kyle Freeland has quietly been flying “under the radar” for the Rockies and I think he’ll outlast his counterpart and defend his home field. Arizona will send Robbie Ray to the hill in this one.

The pitchers: Ray is so far 3-1 with a 5.23 ERA. Ray was originally slated to start in Friday in Atlanta, but he’s been moved up to Thursday. In his most recent outing he’d be blasted for four runs, including serving up three homers, while striking out seven and walking four. 

Freeland is so far 8-6 with a 3.18 ERA. He most recently allowed one earned run off five hits and four walks while striking out four over five innings against Seattle on Saturday. Freeland has to be feeling confident here, as note that he’s a sharp 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

The pick: Rays recent form suggests that a date at hitter friendly Coors Field is not what the doctor has in mind to get back into the winners circle. Admittedly Freeland is likely “pitching over his head” a bit this season, but there’s no reason not to think that he can’t continue his steady progression at home. All things considered, a very fair price. Play on the Rockies.

The set-up: I think that Jacob deGrom is undervalued in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, but I think the home side has the advantage in this one.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 5-8 with a 4.69 ERA. Velasquez hit the DL in his previous start with a liner off his arm, but he’s been given the green light to go in this one. Velasquez has been better on the road than at home, but note that he’s just 2-7 with a 5.01 ERA in all “night” games.

deGrom is so far 5-4 with a 1.79 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits with a walk while striking out eight over eight innings in a no-decision to Tampa on Friday. deGrom was efficient, throwing 73 of his 105 pitches for strikes and generating a whopping 22 swinging strikes in the dominant outing. 

The pick: deGrom has been sharp at home as well with a tiny 1.80 ERA. Velasquez has been “hit or miss” all season, but deGrom is in line for a Cy Young. When I add it all up, I think deGrom should be a larger favorite in this particular matchup. Lay the price, play on the Mets.

The set-up: Ultimately I believe that the visitors could in fact be a lot bigger favorites in this particular matchup. The Brewers go with Freddy Peralta, while the home side goes with Dan Straily.

The pitchers: Peralta is so far 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits and three walks over six innings while striking out six in a victory over the Braves on Friday. Since being called up in mid-June he’s made four starts and over that stretch he’s had three quality efforts. Note that he has a very respectable 28:7 K/BB over 24 frames of work.

Straily is so far 3-4 with a 4.55 ERA. Straily most recently gave up two runs off five hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Friday. Straily’s win/loss record is not indicative of how he’s thrown this year, but I’ll point out that he’s still owns a poor 5.52 ERA in all “home” games.

The pick: Miami has struggled with offensive production and that doesn’t bode well facing the red hot Peralta. This is one which favors the hard-hitting visiting side and I look for it to take full advantage. Lay the price.

The set-up: I’m predicting that this will be decided in extra time or penalties. England is the favorite to win this match straight-up, but I expect Croatia to give it everything it can handle. England advanced by beating Colombia in a shootout and then by beating Sweden 2-0, while Croatia needed a shootout to advance past the host country. 

The teams: Croatia got a big contribution from Domagoj Vida, who scored his team’s second goal in the quarter-final and who also netted one in the shootout in the win over Russia. Luka Modric had a big game overall in the win as well, as he’d go on to set up the second goal. The Croatian’s have won two straight in shootout, proving that they’re anything but an “easy out.” 

Harry Kane failed to score for the first time in seven matches for England last time out, but he still leads the Golden Boot with six scores. The English are deep and talented, as evidenced by their 2-0 win over Sweden, dominating on both ends of the pitch throughout. England has lost just once out of its last 15 matches, but I think it’s going to have its hands full here.

The pick: Note that Croatia is unbeaten in is last six matches, with four outright wins and two penalty shoot-out victories. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a wide-open offensive “shootout.” Play on Croatia +1/4 goal.

The set-up: Lance Lynn has been far from perfect this year, but I still think he’s well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Burch Smith.

The pitchers: Smith is so far 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA. Over 38.1 innings of work this year Smith owns a 5.40 ERA and 39:21 K/BB. Smith comes in off four scoreless against the Red Sox in relief, but he clearly faces a stiff test here in this difficult venue.

Lynn is so far 6-7 with a 5.21 ERA. Lynn comes in off a strong outing against the Orioles on Friday, allowing one run off six hits with two walks along with three strikeouts over six innings in the eventual victory. Over his last nine starts Lynn has posted a much more respectable 3.49 ERA and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here. 

The pick: Lynn has been steadily progressing for well over a month now and I think he’ll easily out duel his still untested counterpart. Smith’s road back to the majors has been a difficult one and while his future could be promising, this early afternoon matchup will prove to be too much for him to overcome in my opinion. Lay the price, play on the Twins.

The set-up: Indiana is 2-17, while Minnesota is 11-8. One of Indiana’s two victories occurred against these very Lynx (71-59). Minnesota comes in off a 77-63 loss to Chicago, but with a date at home against bottom feeder Las Vegas on Friday, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent again.

The teams: Minnesota is led by Maya Moore with 18.9 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen directs the show with 3.7 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the charge on the boards with 11.9 per game.

The Fever are led by Kelsey Mitchell with 14.4 PPG, while Erica Wheeler adds 3.9 assists. Natalie Achonwa leads the way on the boards with 7.2 per night.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Minnesota is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Indiana is 6-3 ATS in its last nine after allowing 90 points or more (just lost 90-63 to Dallas.) I’m banking on the Lynx getting caught looking ahead. Play on Indiana.

The set-up: I think the home side will find a way to get the job done here. The Mariners go with Mike Leake in this one, while the Angels go with Garrett Richards.

The pitchers: Leake is so far 8-5 with a 4.11 ERA. Leake faced these very Angels on Wednesday and he’d allow four runs over four innings off nine hits. Leake has actually been better on the road than at home, but his K/9 of 5.64 leaves everything to be desired.

Richards is so far 5-4 with a 3.42 ERA. Richards most recently struck out eight over 5.1 innings while also allowing three runs off four hits and a walk throwing opposite Leake last week. Richards owns the highly respectable ERA and he also owns a career-high 10.5 K/9. 

The pick: I believe Leake’s inconsistencies continue to haunt him in this one, while there’s no reason not to think that Richards won’t be able to carry over his recent momentum. Especially at home. All things considered, a very fair price. Play on the Angels.

The set-up: I’m expecting a minor upset here at hitter friendly Coors Field. The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin, while the home side goes with Tyler Anderson.

The pitchers: Corbin is so far 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA. Most recently he’d give up one run off six hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals on Wednesday. Corbin would go on to induce 13 swinging strikes in what would be his third straight quality effort. So far the southpaw has been at his best on the road as well this season by going 2-0 with a 2.32 ERA.

Anderson is so far 6-3 with a 3.90 ERA. Anderson most recently went eight shutout innings against the Giants on Wednesday. That’s now back-to-back eight shutout frames for Anderson and suffice it to say, I’m expecting some predictable regression here. Note that he’s 2-3 with 5.01 ERA at home.

The pick: Note that Arizona is a solid 24-18 (+8.6 units) on the road this year, while Colorado is a putrid 18-22 (-12.4 units) at home. I’m banking on Corbin continuing his recent progression, while everything finally points to a bit of a letdown for Anderson, who comes in throwing “over his head.” Play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: The A’s hand the ball to Sean Manaea, while the Astros go with Justin Verlander. Manaea already has a perfect game this year and he’s been the backbone in Oakland’s rotation this season. Verlander continues to dazzle and in my opinion, runs would definitely appear to be at a premium in this one. 

The pitchers: Manaea is so far 8-6 with a 3.33 ERA. Most recently he’d give up two runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Wednesday. Manaea has now given up three or fewer runs in six straight starts and note that he’s a sharp 5-2 with a 3.15 ERA on the road this year.

Verlander is so far 9-4 with a 2.15 ERA. Verlander most recently allowed two runs with ten strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision to Houston Thursday. Verlander is well on his way to the Cy Young with his impressive 154:24 K/BB.

The pick: Verlander owns a 1.87 ERA in all “night” contests as well this season. And take it for what you will, but Oakland has already seen the total go “under” the number in 21 of 35 this season when the total is either 8 or 8.5, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in 16 of 24 home games already this year when the total is in the same range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Two pitchers which had little expectations heading into the season, but who have been “better than advertised” collide on Tuesday and in my opinion, everything points to a bit of a “duel.” The visitors go with Jeremy Hellickson, while the home side goes with Joe Musgrove.

The pitchers: Hellickson is so far 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA. Hellickson comes in off an outing to forget though, giving up nine runs over 4.0 innings in a no-decision to Miami on Thursday. It should be noted though that it was reported just before his start that he was dealing with an illness, but that he’d still be able to take the mound. Clearly Hellickson was effected though. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA on the road this year.

Musgrove is so far 3-3 with a 3.79 ERA. Musgrove returns from the ten-day DL after throwing a bullpen session on Sunday. In his previous start he’d go seven scoreless against the Friars on June 29th. Note that Musgrove is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Not only has Washington already seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 13 road games this season when the total in the contest is between 9 and 9.5, but it’s also seen it go “under” in 21 of its last 36 against clubs with losing records. And therefore it’s definitely worthy to note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go “under” in all six home games that it’s played this year when the total is either 9 or 9.5. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Both teams have looked good so far, but Belgium has been on fire since the tournament began. While the French are slight favorites to win this game outright, I fancy the Belgian’s chances in this one as I expect their dynamic offense to ultimately prevail.

The teams: The French beat Uruguay 2-0 to advance. France is at full strength for this one, but I think it’s going to shocked by the Belgian’s deep/talented and aggressive attack. Belgium will be keeping its eyes on Kylian Mbappe, who has scored three goals, two of which came in the win over Argentina. Uruguay was not at full strength, but the French defense still looked stout, while the offense had no problems either.

Belgium upset Brazil to advance to the semi’s. Romelu Lukaku will be eager to get back into the action, as he’d score twice in each of the first two group stage matches, before then being shutout since (did have a beautiful assist though in the win over Brazil). Marouane Fellaini was critical in the come back win over Japan, while Kevin de Bruyne provided the winning goal against Brazil (from Lukaku.)

The pick: The French have had the “easier” route, but now they face their stiffest test to date in my opinion (no offense to all of the Uruguay fans out there!) Belgium is unbeaten since August 2016 and it comes into this one having won seven games in a row in regulation, including all five at the 2018 World Cup. I think the French finally stumble here facing the Belgian’s superior offensive attack.

The set-up: I think that Phillies ace Aaron Nola is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The Mets send Corey Oswalt to the mound in the opener of this three-game National League series.

The pitchers: Nola is so far 11-2 with a 2.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over seven innings with two walks and nine K’s in a victory over Baltimore on Wednesday. Nola has thrown a quality start in 14 of his 16 outings this year. Note that he’s been solid on the road as well with 3-2, 3.23 ERA record.

Oswalt is so far 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off five hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Blue Jays on Wednesday. It was just his second career start and he was on a short leash, limited to only 65 pitches. Oswalt will be on a pitch count again tonight, which puts added pressure on the Mets relievers.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is a super 38-27 (+11.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while New York is just 25-35 (-10.9 units) against right-handed starters. No upset here, as I expect Nola to take care of business in this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: Milwaukee beat the Braves 10-3 at home yesterday, while the Marlins come in off a 10-2 road win over Washington. I think the Brewers will carry over their momentum here though and I think that Chase Anderson will get the better of Jose Urena once it’s all said and done.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 6-6 with a 3.99 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off three hits with a walk while striking out five in a no-decision to the Twins on Wednesday. Anderson comes into this one on top form, having allowed just a single run in each of his last three starts. Lastly note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.25 ERA in all “night” games.

Urena is so far 2-9 with a 4.18 ERA. He most recently went five scoreless frames against Toronto on Wednesday, unfortunate to earn a no-decision. Urena has gotten poor run support all season and note that he owns a pedestrian 2-4, 4.18 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee is 44-27 (+17.5 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Miami is 26-39 (-1.7 units) against right-handed starters this season. Everything considered, a very fair price in my opinion. Play on Milwaukee.

The set-up: Texas looks poised for a classic “letdown” here in my opinion after its 3-0 road win at Detroit yesterday afternoon. Boston comes in off a 7-4 win at KC last night and I’m expecting it to carry over that momentum in the opener of this AL series in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors go with Mike Minor, while the home side goes with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Minor is so far 6-4 with a 4.63 ERA. Minor most recently gave up four runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings in a no-decision to the Astros on Wednesday. Minor has looked brilliant at times this year, and very pedestrian in others, but note that he’s a terrible 2-2 with a 6.82 ERA on the road thus far.

Rodriguez is so far 10-3 with a 3.84 ERA. Rodriguez most recently went six scoreless while striking out six in a win over Washington on Wednesday. Rodriguez has to be feeling pretty confident here as well as he’s 5-2 with a 3.91 ERA at home this season.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Texas is a horrible 18-32 (-4.2 units) this year against teams with winning records, while Boston is 32-16 (+3.5 units) against clubs with losing records. Rodriguez is well worth the price of admission in this lop-sided matchup on the mound. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox.

The set-up: I think that the home side will find a way to bounce back after yesterday’s tight 3-2 defeat in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors go with Jack Flaherty, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner.

The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 3-4 with a 3.19 ERA. Flaherty most recently gave up four runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. Flaherty has for the most part been as solid as St. Louis could have possibly asked for this year, but his latest outing certainly leaves everything to be desired.

The home side goes with Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 2.58) who gave up three runs off seven hits over six innings while striking out five in a loss to Colorado on Monday. It was a hard-luck loss overall for the southpaw, as the game was being played at hitter friendly Coors Field. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is a terrible 1-3 (-1.6 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while San Francisco is 11-7 (+1.5 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. All things considered, I think a very fair price. Play on the Giants.

The set-up: Chicago will be eager to get back onto the field of play today after Saturday afternoon’s victory and it’ll be feeling pretty confident with Jon Lester on the hill. Cincinnati goes with Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Castillo is so far 5-8 with a 5.53 ERA. Castillo comes in off a rare decent outing, allowing one run over 6.2 innings over the toothless White Sox on Monday. Over six previous starts though he’d given up three earned runs or more in each (note that he’s a brutal 2-5 with an elevated 6.70 ERA on the road this year.)

Lester is so far 11-2 with a 2.25 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs and three walks with five strikeouts over five innings in a win over the Twins on Sunday. Lester wasn’t at his best, but the veteran still managed to find a way to win. Note that Lester comes in having won seven straight, while sporting a sharp 1-5, 1.49 ERA record at home.

The pick: Ultimately I believe that Lester is being severely undervalued in this matchup. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Cubs.

The set-up: After yesterday’s high-scoring “slug-fest,” I’m expecting much more of a “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors go with Lucas Giolito, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Giolito is so far 5-7 with a 6.93 ERA. He enters off a horrible start on Tuesday against the Reds, allowing seven earned runs off eight hits with three walks over five innings. Note that things won’t get any easier for Giolito this afternoon, but with his job on the line, we definitely don’t have to question his focus.

Keuchel is so far 5-8 with a 4.12 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out seven in a victory over Texas on Tuesday. Keuchel has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s still just 1-4 with a 4.96 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has already seen the total go “under” the number in three of four as a road dog of +250 or more, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in ten of 13 already this season as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Note that this is the opener of a home and home set between these teams and it marks the only time that they’ll face each other in the regular season for the remainder. Over the last three years they’ve met eight times (including playoffs) and the Bombers are 5-3 in those games, including 3-1 on home field. To break this string, the Lions are going to have open things up and look to catch the home side off guard.

The teams: BC looks to reverse its fortunes after its humbling 41-22 beatdown loss in Edmonton last week: “This is our first taste of adversity,” said Lions Head Coach Wally Bruno after. Keep your eyes on WR Emmanuel Arceneaux, who has 106 yards on the season, but who is still looking for his first TD.

Winnipeg can’t take anything for granted here obviously as it tries to find its identity without star QB Matt Nichols directing the show, as he’s still three weeks away from returning from injury. Backup Chris Streveler has his team at 1-2 on the year. The Bombers have struggled defensively though at times this season, in the two losses the unit has allowed 777 yards combined through the air.

The pick: So can BC’s Jon Jennings, who hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in two games this year, step up and take advantage? He’s going to be given the green light in this one as BC is desperate to get back into the winners circle. Winnipeg will also be looking to “air it out.” This number is just a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: After the Angels prevailed 3-2 yesterday, I’m expecting more of a “slug-fest” between these inter-league in-state rivals on Saturday night. The visitors go with Ross Stripling, while the Angels go with Deck McGuire.

The pitchers: Stripling is so far 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs off nine hits over six innings while striking out seven and walking one. Overall Stripling has been solid this year, but clearly this latest outing wasn’t an encouraging sign.

McGuire is so far 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA. McGuire most recently gave up five runs off five hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. He was then sent back down to the minors, before then being called up again to make this start. More than anything I’m basing this play on the fact that I think McGuire is going to struggle mightily again in this one.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Dodgers have already seen the total go “over” the number in 37 of 56 against right-handed starters this season, while the Angels have seen the total go “over” in four of their last six after allowing two runs or less in their previous outing. This number is just a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Toronto won the 2017 Grey Cup in a stunning upset of the Calgary Stampeders, but so far the team has looked horrible in 2018 with an 0-2 start. Edmonton will look to take advantage here now and build off its 41-22 home win over the Lions last week.

The teams: CJ Gable had a career day rushing for Edmonton last week, going for 165 yards on 23 carries, while also adding a TD for the Esks. Mike Reilly was 22 of 30 for 326 yards and three major scores, while also rushing for a TD. WR D’Haquille Williams had six catches for 129 yards.

Toronto has so far managed just 26 points on the season and with starting QB Ricky Ray out for the season with a neck injury (career ending?) James Franklin is suddenly being thrust into a very difficult situation. Franklin was an unremarkable 8 of 13 for 65 yards and a rushing score in relief of Ray last week.

The pick: Note that Edmonton has covered in five of its past six road games. Note that Toronto is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against clubs with winning records. The injury to Ray is devastating for an Argo’s team which was already struggling across the board. I think Reilly and company come in and calmly conduct their business and take full advantage of this favorable situation. Lay the points.

The set-up: I like the Mariners to bounce back here after yesterday’s 7-1 defeat. The visitors go with Kyle Freeland, while the home side hands the ball to flame-thrower James Paxton.

The pitchers: Freeland is so far 8-6 with a 3.25 ERA. Most recently he gave up two runs off three hits over seven innings in a victory over San Francisco on Monday. Amazingly Freeland has a better record at Coors (2.89 ERA and .215 BAA) than on the road (3.50 and .247 marks.) Note that he’s also a pedestrian 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA in all “day” games as well.

Paxton is so far 8-2 with a 3.39 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the Royals on Sunday, going eight scoreless and allowing two hits and two walks while striking out 11. Paxton is back on track after this gem and note that he has to be feeling confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’s 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA at home.

The pick: Freeland has struggled in “day” games and his peripherals suggest that he’s been performing over his head as well. He’s also been at this worst on the road this season. Paxton on the other hand has dominated at home this year and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here. Play on Seattle.

The set-up: Chicago is out to avenge yesterday’s 3-2 setback. Matt Harvey has seemingly turned things around of late for the Reds, but I think he’s going to stumble in this difficult venue finally. The home side goes with Tyler Chatwood.

The pitchers: Harvey is so far 4-5 with a 4.91 ERA. Most recently he went 5.2 scoreless while striking out six in a win over the Brewers on Sunday. As noted off the top, Harvey has been better of late, but note that he’s still an atrocious 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA on the road, while also sporting a ballooned 6.00 ERA in all “day” games.

Chatwood is so far 3-5 with a 4.54 ERA. Most recently he gave up seven runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Twins on Saturday. Chatwood’s been better on the road than at home this year, but note that he owns a respectable 3.99 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Cincinnati is a terrible 21-27 (-2.4 units) against teams with winning records this year, while Chicago is 18-11 against clubs with winning records. I think Harvey’s been “throwing over his head” of late, while Chatwood comes in focused and hungry. Play on the Cubs.

The set-up: Sweden has enjoyed a strong run over the past month, having lost just once in its last six games across all competitions. It’s only loss came in extra time to Germany in the group stage. England comes in having suffered just one loss in its last 14 fixtures.

The teams: Sweden has kept a clean sheet in five of its last six competitions, but it now faces Harry Kane and the high-powered English, who seemingly have momentum on their side.

Note that Mikael Lustig will miss the match against England due to suspension, which puts adde pressure on striker Marcus Berg, who has yet to even score at this tournament.

Kane has six goals in the World Cup, while centre-back John Stones is another player to keep your eyes on today as well.

The pick: Ultimately I think that Sweden will have a hard time keeping pace with the English. Note that Sweden’s 3-0 win over Mexico was the only time it’s scored more than once in a game since a blowout win over Luxembourg in qualifying. If any team in this tournament was going to post some goals against the Swedes, it’s the English. And I’m banking on that happening. Play on England.

The set-up: Colorado had the night off on Thursday, while Seattle closed its series with the Angels with a 4-1 win. I think another low-scoring affair is in order in the Pacific Northwest in the opener of this series, as the visitors hand the ball to German Marquez, with the home side going with Felix Hernandez.

The pitchers: Marquez is so far 6-8 with a 5.14 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over eight innings while striking out nine in a dominant victory over the Dodgers on Saturday. Marquez has struggled at Coors Field this year, but he’s posted a highly respectable 3.07 ERA on the road.

Hernandez is so far 8-6 with a 5.11 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with five strikeouts over five innings in a win over Kansas city on Saturday. Hernandez has been much better at home this year with a sub-4.00 ERA, while also striking out 49 batters over 54.1 frames of work.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has already seen the total go “under” the number in 21 of 33 against teams with winning records this season, while Seattle has seen the total go “under” the number in six of its last eight as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is indeed a tad high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The Padres enter off a 6-3 win last night in Arizona, but I think the home side will answer back on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi, while the home side goes with Zack Godley.

The pitchers: Lucchesi is so far 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA. Most recently he went five scoreless against the Pirates on Saturday. Lucchesi through struggled with his command, throwing only 52 of his 85 pitches for strikes. Note that since he’s returned from injury, Lucchesi has allowed eight walks over 10.2 frames of work.

Godley is so far 9-6 with a 5.07 ERA. Most recently he was shelled for seven runs off nine hits with five walks while striking out five in a loss to San Francisco on Sunday. Godley struggled in that one from the get-go, but I think he’ll bounce back here, as note that he’s still 8-3 with a 3.82 ERA in all “night” games and 4-2 with a 4.14 ERA at home this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is still a horrible 8-16 (-4.6 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Arizona is 18-11 (+7.7 units) against left-handed starters. This line could be higher, play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: Ottawa lost 24-14 in Calgary last week and it’ll be eager to return to the winners circle in this favorable matchup on Friday night. Montreal was a 10.5 point home underdog to Saskatchewan last weekend and it pulled off the huge 23-17 outright upset. Can anyone say “letdown spot” in Week 4?

The teams: Redblacks’ QB Trevor Harris struggled against Calgary’s elite defense, going 13 of 29 for 135 yards and an INT. The only bright spot on offense was RB William Powell, who had 113 yards on the day. And while the offense looked terrible overall, the defense was pretty good, forcing three turnovers in the end.

Montreal’s defense looked great last week as well, holding the Roughriders to 278 total yards. The offense though wasn’t great, with just 264 yards. QB Jeff Mathews was 8 of 12 for 98 yards.

The pick: Ottawa though has covered five straight in Montreal and I think everything points to that strong trend continuing here. Also note that the Redblacks have covered their last four following a loss. The moral of the story behind this pick, is to not “over-react.” Everything points to a blowout from start to finish in this one in my opinion, play on Ottawa.

The set-up: These teams each had Thursday night off. I think though that Jacob deGrom is well worth the price of admission at home in this matchup. The Rays turn to Ryne Stanek.

The pitchers: Stanek is so far 1-2 with a 1.98 ERA. Stanek has a 0.85 WHIP and 22 strikeouts over 17.2 frames, but he’s only expected to see a maximum of two innings as a starter in this one. Stanek hasn’t worked more than two innings in any appearance this season.

deGrom is so far 5-4 with a 1.84 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off six hits and a walk over six innings while striking out eight in an unfortunate loss to the Marlins on Saturday. deGrom has now posted nine straight quality efforts and he has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back here, as note that he owns a tiny 1.90 ERA at home and is 3-2 with a 1.81 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Stanek’s inability to go deep into this one puts added pressure on the Rays bullpen. I think deGrom will go deep and the Mets will finally give their ace the support he deserves. Lay the price, play on New York.

The set-up: A couple of decent hurlers go head-to-head at Wrigley on Friday afternoon, but I think that Mike Montgomery will take advantage of familiar surroundings and find a way to get the job done in “Friendly Confines.” The Reds go with Tyler Mahle.

The pitchers: Mahle is so far 6-6 with a 3.83 ERA so far this season. Most recently he gave up three runs off six hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Saturday. Mahle has been solid overall this season, I simply feel though that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Montgomery is so far 3-2 with a 3.55 ERA. Most recently he gave up five runs off seven hits over five innings while also striking out five in a fortunate victory over Minnesota on Friday. Montgomery was staked to an early lead and then he’d go after the strike zone, which led to the elevated score. Montgomery though has to be feeling confident about a bounce back here as he’s already 3-1 with a 3.49 ERA in all “day” games this season.

The pick: Mahle has looked decent of late, but I think he stumbles here in this difficult venue. Montgomery on the other hand will be looking to improve after his latest sub-par effort and I think he’ll indeed answer the call. Lay the price.

The set-up: Belgium comes in having not lost since a friendly to Spain in August 2016, a stretch of 23 unbeaten. Belgium has so far won its four games outright to advance to this point. Neymar and company are going to have their hands full today in this one and in my opinion, all signs point to a high-scorer, wide-open shoot-out.

The teams: Brazil would beat Mexico 2-0 in the Knock Out Round, while Belgium needed an epic second half come from behind effort to knock off Japan 3-2 after being down 2-0 for most of the contest.

Neymar got a goal in the win over Mexico for Brazil. In all the Brazilians would get 14 shots on target and I think they’ll have plenty of opportunity here today as well against a Belgian side which had its hands full against the Japanese.

Brazil has been tough defensively, but The Selecao will truly be tested today by Romelu Lukaku and company. The Belgians three-goal second half barrage was impressive in their win over the Japanese and there’s no reason not to think that they can’t carry that momentum over here as well.

The pick: Note that Belgium has now won six matches in a row and it’s scored 19 goals in the process. Two of the World’s best go head-to-head here and in my opinion, everything does indeed point to offensive fireworks. Play the “over.”

The set-up: France won its group and then beat Argentina in the Knock Out Round 4-3. The French have started to find their stride offensively, which I believe spells trouble for Uruguay, which received horrible recent news that star offensive player Edinson Cavani will almost assuredly miss this one with a thigh injury. If Cavani does play, one has to wonder about his overall fitness obviously.

The teams: The loss of Cavani is tragic no doubt for Uruguay. All eyes fall to Luis Suarez, who did have two goals in the group stage to move to 53 in 102 games for his country. Uruguay had a 4-4-2 diamond formation in its victory over Russia and Portugal and it’s expected to go with it again here.

Kylian Mbappe had two goals in the win over Argentina for the French. Antoine Griezmann scored a penalty as well. France comes in having won six and drawn two of its last eight matches since a loss to Colombia in a friendly back in March.

The pick: The loss of Cavani is significant at this stage of the tournament, especially with Mbappe stepping into the spotlight. France had to scrap its way through the Group Stage, but it’s gotten progressively better across the board with each outing. I think this progression continues on Friday, as the French step up and take advantage of the situation.

The set-up: The Diamondbacks will be eager to get back into the winners circle here after last night’s 8-4 loss at home to the Cardinals. The Padres come to town off a 4-2 road loss in Oakland. The visitors hand the ball to Eric Lauer, while the home side goes with Shelby Miller.

The pitchers: Lauer is far 3-5 with a 5.08 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. Lauer has probably pitched better than what his record would indicate, but note that he’s still a terrible 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA on the road this season.

Miller is so far 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA. Miller most recently gave up six earned runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out six over five innings in a loss to San Francisco on Saturday. Miller’s second start of the year didn’t go as planned, but if there was a silver lining it was that he’d generate nine swinging strikes.

The pick: Miller faces the perfect opponent to get back on track here in his third start of the season. Miller has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around, and I think we’ll start to see that this evening. Lauer on the other hand has been poor in this spot all year and there’s no reason not to think that that trend won’t get carried over in this difficult venue. Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is just 28-33 against right-handed starters this year, while Arizona is 18-11 (+7.7 units) against southpaws. All things considered I think a great price. Play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: The Hamilton Tigercats went 1-1 on a season opening road trip and then returned home for a convincing 31-17 victory over Winnipeg in Week 3. The Roughriders will be hungry here though, as they come in sitting at just 1-2 and off a humbling 27-13 loss to lowly Montreal as a 10-point fav last time out.

The teams: Saskatchewan was 2-0 in this series last year, but the Roughriders clearly can’t take anything for granted against this much improved Hamilton team.

Hamilton’s Jeremiah Masoli had 369 yards an a TD last week for the Ti-Cats and the defense held the Bombers to just 280 yards. The run game also looked decent as Mercer Timmis had two short TD runs.

QB Brandon Bridge had to start in place of the injured Zach Collaros last week for Saskatchewan and while he’d stumble in that one, I think he’ll be much more competitive this time around.

The pick: With a game to make adjustments after losing Collaros, I think Winnipeg will look a lot better this week. This is Hamilton’s third road game in the first four weeks and after playing at such a high level, including posting back to back SU/ATS victories, everything finally points to a letdown in my opinion (note that Hamilton is 0-2 ATS in its last two after two more SU wins, while Saskatchewan is 6-4 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU losses.) Grab as many points as you can, play on the Roughriders.

The set-up: The White Sox were busy losing 7-4 in Cincinnati last night, while the Astros were taking care of business with a series win in Texas this week, most recently a 6-5 extra-innings affair just last night. While these teams were both involved in higher-scoring games on Wednesday, I think that their Thursday series opener sets up as more of a “duel.” The White Sox go with Carlos Rodon on the hill this evening, while the Astros go with ace Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Rodon is so far 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA. Rodon comes in off an outing to forget against the Rangers on Saturday allowing five runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in the eventual loss. Rodon has looked decent at times over his first five starts and shaky in others, but I will point out that the White Sox have seen the total go “under” the number in ten of 16 already this season as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range.

Verlander is so far 9-4 with a 2.12 ERA. Verlander gave up five runs off nine hits over five innings in a 5-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. The silver lining behind the sub-par performance was that he’d go on to strike out eight. Has Verlander finally hit the wall after his improbable turn-around in helping the Astros to a World Series, or will the veteran get back on track with another consistent effort here? I’m banking on the latter being the case, note that he’s 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The pick: It’s definitely worth noting as well that Houston has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 11 as home favorite in the -250 to -330 range already this year. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

analysis coming

The set-up: Houston held on for a 5-3 win last night in Texas, but I think we’ll see a much more lop-sided result this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, while the home side goes with Mike Minor.

The pitchers: Cole is so far 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs (just one earned) off five hits with six strikeouts over six frames in a loss to the Rays on Friday. It was his first loss since April and note that he still hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any outing this year. Cole has to be feeling good in this spot as he’s 6-1 with a 2.14 ERA on the road this season.

Minor is so far 6-4 with a 4.64 ERA. Minor most recently held San Diego to just one hit while striking out five over seven scoreless. Minor had a strong June, but I’m still skeptical that he’s completely “turned the corner.” Note that he has a poor 4.92 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is already 25-10 (+6.6 units) against divisional opponents, while Texas is just 14-24 (-2.3 units) against the division. I expect the defending champs to keep the pedal on the metal in this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: Toronto roared from behind to win 8-6 over the visiting Metropolitans on Tuesday and with its ace coming to the mound, I’m predicting another victory on Wednesday as well. The visitors go with Corey Oswalt, while the home side goes with Marcus Stroman.

The pitchers: Oswalt is so far 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA. In his first career start he’d allow six runs over 2.2 innings to the Marlins on Friday. Oswalt isn’t expected to be in the starting rotation much longer with others returning from injury.

Stroman is so far 1-5 with a 6.02 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off five hits over seven innings while striking out four in a win over Detroit on Friday. It was his second straight quality effort since coming off the DL, so there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well.

The pick: Note as well that New York is now just 2-6 (-3.2 units) this season in all inter-league games, while Toronto is 8-3 (+6.5 units) in all inter-league contests. I think Stroman will easily out duel his younger counterpart, making the home side well worth the price of admission in my estimation.

The set-up: The Twins lost 2-0 yesterday and clearly they’ll be eager to bounce back here after that listless effort. While Tuesday’s contest stayed well “under” the posted number, I think that we’re in line for more of a “slug-fest” on Wednesday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios, while the home side goes with Chase Anderson.

The pitchers: Berrios is so far 8-6 with a 3.52 ERA. Berrios most recently got blasted for six runs off six hits with four walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. And now Berrios has to pitch against another tough National League opponent in this inter-league contest. Note that while he’s 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA at home, Berrios is just 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA on the road.

Anderson is so far 6-6 with a 4.18 ERA. Anderson most recently gave up one run off two hits with five strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Reds on Friday. Note though that it was just Anderson’s second quality start since May. Also note that he sports a terrible 5.29 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Despite yesterday’s result, note that Minnesota has still seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of 16 inter-league games this year. I’m banking on these starters getting the hook early and for this one to soar over, sooner rather than later.

The set-up: After their 8-5 win on Tuesday over the Braves, I think the Yankees will also deliver the goods on Wednesday afternoon. The visitors go with Julio Teheran, while the home side goes with CC Sabathia.

The pitchers: Teheran is so far 6-5 with a 4.21 ERA. Most recently he went six shutout innings in a victory over St. Louis on Friday. Teheran though has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned this season and note that he owns a poor 5.50 ERA in all “day” games.

Sabathia is so far 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA. Sabathia comes in off a strong outing against the Red Sox on Friday, giving up one run off six hits while striking out five over seven innings. The veteran threw 62 of his 97 pitches for strikes. Over 32.2 June innings the southpaw would post a 1.93 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 28:7 K/BB.

The pick: Note as well that Sabathia is 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA at home this year. I think Teheran’s inconsistencies come back to haunt him once again, while Sabathia’s recent form suggests that he’s in line for another productive afternoon. I think New York is well worth the price of admission in this spot.

The set-up: The Rockies held on for the victory last night and I think the home side will once again find a way to deliver the goods on Tuesday. The Giants go with Chris Stratton on the mound this evening, while Colorado goes with Antonio Senzatela.

The pitchers: Stratton is so far 8-5 with a 4.45 ERA. Stratton most recently allowed five runs off eight hits while striking out three in a no-decision to these very Rockies on Thursday. Note that in two starts against Colorado this year he’s allowed nine runs over nine innings of work.

Senzatela is so far 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA. With Jon Gray optioned on Saturday, Senzatela has been called up to make this start. Over 17.1 innings of relief he has a poor 6.23 ERA, but his 4.18 FIP is serviceable.

The pick: Let’s face it, neither of these starting pitchers has been very good of late. Take it for what you will though, but San Fran is already just 26-29 (-2.4 units) in all “night” games this year, while Colorado is 31-23 (+8.2 units) in all “night” games this season. As mentioned above, I think the Rockies build off their Monday night win. Play on Colorado.

The set-up: One of these starters has made the most of his time this year, while the other has for the most part struggled this season. Despite these facts, I firmly believe that Dallas Keuchel can get back on track here and take advantage of what I think to be a major mismatch on the mound. The Rangers go with Austin Bibens-Dirkx.

The pitchers: Keuchel is so far 4-8 with a 4.22 ERA. Keuchel earned a no-decision against the Jays on Wednesday despite allowing six runs off seven hits and three walks over 5.1 innings while striking out three. Keuchel gave up five runs in the top of the first, but settled down after that.

Bibens-Dirkx is so far 1-1 with 3.57 ERA. Most recently he went five scoreless against the toothless Padres on Tuesday. So far the 33 year old has a 1.32 WHIP and 17:6 K/BB over 22.2 innings.

The pick: Houston has responded well in this spot all year though, going 3-0 (+3 units) after three or more consecutive losses (22-7, +13.2 units in the same position over the last three seasons!), while Texas has been a disaster in this position by going just 18-30 (-2.2 units) against clubs with winning records. I’m banking on Keuchel bouncing back and for the defending champs to respond as well. Lay the price.

The set-up: I think the hungry visiting side (just 1-16 on the year after falling 87-83 to Atlanta on Sunday) offers great value to come in under the radar to post a solid cover in this spot.

The teams: Minnesota comes in complacent as well after seven straight victories. Indiana will look to take advantage and push the pace of this one. Note that Fever rookie forward Victoria Vivians posted a career high 27 points in Indiana’s latest setback:

"The best thing we can do is stick together," Vivians said after the loss to Atlanta. "We depend on each other for everything. I feel like the best thing we can do is put our heads all in together and just be together through the whole process."

The pick: The defending champs are on “cruise control” now with seven straight victories. Minnesota most recently held for a 76-72 win over Dallas, led by 26 points from Maya Moore. But with the LA Sparks, the Lynx’ most fiercest rival coming to town on Thursday, there’s no question that this one sets up as a “look ahead” spot as well for the home side. While I’m not predicting the straight up upset, the stage is definitely set for a competitive battle. So grab the points! Play on the Fever.

The set-up: These teams went “under” the number in Game 1 of this inter-league series, with Boston coming out on top 4-3. Two more capable starters collide in the nation’s capital on Tuesday night and once again I believe that runs will be at a premium. The visitors go with Brian Johnson, while the home side goes with Tanner Roark.

The pitchers: Johnson is so far 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA. Johnson went four innings in place of Steven Wright last week and manager Alex Cora will give him another shot here with several starters on the verge of returning from injury, but not ready quite yet. Johnson will obviously be looking to make the most of this opportunity and improve upon his respectable 2.45 ERA in all “night” games this season.

Roark is so far 3-9 with a 4.10 ERA. Roark comes off a tough loss to the Phillies on Thursday, allowing two runs (just one earned) off seven hits while striking out five over six innings. Roark has been far from perfect this year, but he does own a 3.75 ERA in all night games.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Boston has already seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 15 on the road this year when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in eight of nine at home with a money line set in the same range. This number is a little high in my estimation, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Switzerland comes in having lost just one of its last 20 matches since falling on penalties in the second round of the 2016 Euros. The Swiss though would be the runners up in Group E, while Sweden topped its group, one which included defending World Cup champion Germany.

The teams: Note that Sweden midfielder Sebastian Larsson is suspended for this matchup after picking up two yellow cards in the group stage. The Swede’s will be leaning heavily on defenseman Andrea Granqvist, who anchors their back line and who also scored two penalties in the group stage. The only team to have beaten Sweden over its last five matches is Germany and it’s also the only team that’s scored against it in this time.

The Swiss will be without captain Stephan Lichsteiner, who is one of two defenders banned after receiving dual yellows in the group stages. Switzerland will be expecting Ricardo Rodriguez to step up once again, as he comes in having scored two goals already in this tournament. The Swiss drew with Brazil in their opener, proving unequivocally in my mind that they have the defense to stop any team. The win over Croatia was then followed by a draw with Costa Rica, which earned it second spot in its group.

The pick: These teams are both patient and opportunistic. With each looking for the other to make the first mistake, this Round of 16 matchup has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a run and gun “shootout.” Play the “under.”

The set-up: I think the home side will take advantage of this favorable match up on the mound in the opener of this inter-league series. The visitors go with James Shields, while the home side goes with Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Shields is so far 3-9 with a 4.29 ERA. Shields comes in off his best start of the year, going seven shutout against the Twins on Wednesday. It was his first shutout of the season and in my opinion, a predictable “letdown” looks imminent here. Shields has looked much better over the last month, but I’m still very skeptical.

Castillo is so far 5-8 with a 5.85 ERA. Castillo most recently allowed five run off six hits while striking out four over five innings in a loss to the Braves on Wednesday. Note that he’s been at his best at home though with a respectable 4.10 ERA.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is a poor 3-9 (-3.9 units) in all inter-league games this year, while Cincinnati is 6-1 (+5.8 units) in all inter-league games.

I think Castillo gets back on track, I look for Shields to stumble and everything points to the home side taking advantage. Lay the price.

The set-up: Two veteran studs go head-to-head in the opener of this inter-league series and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a classic “duel!” The visitors go with Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with ace Max Scherzer.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 9-3 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off eight hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Wednesday. Porcello hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been better than what Boston could have possibly asked for, coming in with a strong 1.13 WHIP and 99:24 K/BB over 105 innings of work.

Scherzer is so far 10-4 with a 2.04 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off four hits over seven innings in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. Scherzer has gotten only nine runs of support over five June starts, leading to a 1-3 record, despite giving up only eight runs over 28 innings of work. Scherzer has to be feeling confident here though as he’s 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA at home and 7-0 with a 1.96 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has already seen the total go “under” the number in three of four this year as a road underdog in the +175 to +250 range, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in 12 of 17 inter-league games. I’m expecting a contested/tight battle in the latter frames. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Detroit bounced back on Sunday to win 9-1, but I think the home side will find a way to get get the job done in the finale of this series on Monday afternoon. The visitors go with Mike Fiers, while the home side goes with Ryan Borucki.

The pitchers: Fiers is so far 5-5 with a 4.04 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off five hits with a walk while striking out five over seven innings in a 3-0 loss to the A’s on Wednesday. Fiers has been hit or miss this year, usually misfiring on the road with a 2-3, 5.15 ERA record to this point.

Borucki is so far 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Borucki comes in off a loss in his major-league debut against the Astros, allowing only two runs off six hits while striking out three over six innings. Borucki will look to make the most of his time until others return to the rotation.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring nine or more runs in its previous outing, while Toronto is 6-3 in its last nine after allowing nine or more runs in its previous game. I like the Jays to bounce back at home and for Borucki to out duel Fiers. Play on Toronto.

The set-up: Mexico beat Germany in its opening game and while it somehow also managed a victory in its second, it would come up short in a 3-0 loss in its final group stage match. Brazil started its group stage with a “draw,” but then it would pick up steam with consecutive victories. Two of the World’s soccer heavyweights collide on Monday morning in the knock out round and everything points to a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion.

The teams: Brazil forward Neymar returned from injury in the final warm-up before the tournament to score a goal and he’d also notch his 56th international goal in the victory over Costa Rica. Philippe Coutinho has scored in three straight Brazil matches, but he would also assist in the opener against Serbia.

Mexico will have its hands full with a Brazil team which hasn’t lost since a friendly against Argentina in August. The Mexicans followed up their historic win over Germany with a more lacklustre effort over South Korea, only to then be shutout in its final group game. Clearly Mexico will be looking to regain its form/confidence with a much better effort.

The pick: Mexico has never advanced past the Round of 16 and it’ll need an even bigger miracle on Monday than what it received in the victory over Germany. Regardless, with each side pushing the pace, I’m expecting this total to soar over the number sooner, rather than later. Play the “over.”

The set-up: Normally steady, I think both of these starters will get chased early, which will in turn result in a higher-scoring over. The Braves go with Mike Foltynewicz, while the Cardinals go with John Gant.

The pitchers: Foltynewicz is 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA so far. Foltynewicz most recently gave up one run off one hit with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to Cincinnati on Monday. Foltynewicz has the elite ERA, but note that he’s only gone into the sixth inning or beyond just five times this year.

Gant is so far 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA. Gant made a spot start against Cleveland on Monday and he’d go seven scoreless in the gem. Gant has made the most of his time as a starter this year, but his last effort was atypical. Note that he owns a pedestrian 4.55 ERA in all “day” games to this point as well.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but St. Louis has seen the total go “over” the number ten of 15 home games this year when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while ATL has seen the total go “over” in 12 of 21 road games when the total is set between the same money line range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: My hat goes off to Russia and it’s fans, as it would make it out of the group stage for the first time ever in its World Cup history. The Russians destroyed a couple of the weakest teams in the tournament though in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, but when they faced Uruguay in their finale, they’d crumble and fall 3-0. Spain hasn’t been at its best, but it would still come out on top of a tough Group B.

The teams: Spain got three goals from Diego Costa over its first two group matches. Isco had five goals in qualifying for Spain and he’s now off and running in the 2018 World Cup after his goal against Morocco. The Spaniards have won just three of their last eight matches, but note that they’re unbeaten since Euro 2016.

Russia made a bold move to rotate players in its match against Uruguay and it clearly couldn’t have gone worse. Igor Smolnikov was sent off for two yellow cards after just 36 minutes and he will now miss the match against Spain through suspension.

The pick: The moral of this pick is to not overreact. I’m not going to overreact to Russia’s opening group stage victories (note that it had gone seven matches leading up to the tournament without a win.) I’m also not going to read too much into Spain’s lacklustre group stage effort. I think the Russians will once again falter with the “step up” in competition. Lay the price, play on Spain.

The set-up: The Als are coming off an embarrassing home loss and they’ll be eager to quickly erase that memory. They now perhaps thankfully hit the road for a matchup against an equally as hungry Roughriders side in Saskatchewan. Montreal is 0-2 to open the season, while Saskatchewan is 1-1.

The teams: Montreal will be eager to avoid its first 0-3 start since the 1996 season. QB Drew Willy will be expected to step up here. In all fairness though, he hasn’t been terrible over the first two games, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 392 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The combination of Ernest Jackson and Chris Williams has been decent with 196 receiving yards. The ground game has been poor with 72 yards per game, but the major problem has been on the defensive side, so far allowing 39 points and 444 yards per game.

Riders’ QB Zach Collaros hasn’t been great in the early going, with 309 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. The ground game has been decent with 102.5 yards per game average. The defense though has been nothing special, allowing 29.5 points and 375 yards per game.

The pick: It’s not going to be a pretty season for the Als, but they couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to try and score an upset against. Saskatchewan has looked poor overall and while I’m not in fact going to predict an outright victory, I do think that the stage is set for a competitive battle. Grab the points, play on the Alouettes.

The set-up: The Twins and Cubs continue their inter-league series on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, this one highly favors the home side. Minnesota goes with Adalberto Mejia, while Chicago goes with Tyler Chatwood.

The pitchers: Mejia was 4-7 with a 4.50 ERA for the Twins last year. This will be his season debut for the big club after posting an impressive June in which he had a 1.41 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over five starts in Triple A (note that he was just 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in all “day” games last year though.)

Chatwood is so far 3-5 with a 3.95 ERA. Chatwood returns from the Paternity list and while he owns the decent ERA, his 1.73 WHIP leaves everything to be desired. I will point out though that has so far he’s been at his best in all “day” games by posting a 3.19 ERA.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is a terrible 26-30 (-5.2 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Chicago is a superb 12-5 (+4.3 units) against southpaws. All things considered, a great price in my estimation. Play on Chicago.

The set-up: France is unbeaten in its last seven and its lost only once in its last 15 matches. The French topped Group C, but they looked far from dominant in doing so. Argentina needed a late goal in its final group game to grab second spot and a place in the round of 16.

The teams: Didier Deschamps rested players for France against Denmark, but he’s expected to go back to the second group which faced Peru: Hugo Lloris, Benjamin Pavard, Samuel Umtiti, Paul Pogba, Blaise Matuidi and Kylian Mbappe all returning to the starting line-up. Note that Antonie Griezmann scored from the penalty spot in the opening game.

Lionel Messi finally got off the schneid in the win over Nigeria for Argentina. Marcos Rojo returned to the starting line-up last time out and he’d score the winning goal.

The pick: Argentina has been susceptible defensively throughout this tournament though, as evidenced by its 3-0 defeat to Croatia. Despite that setback though, the Argentinian’s have to be feeling pretty fortunate to have advanced. Clearly Argentina will be looking to pull off an upset here against a France team which also has something to prove to its faithful. Two teams which did not live up to expectations in the group round have a shot at redemption this afternoon and I think it will in fact help push this to a higher-scoring shootout. Play the “over.”

The set-up: Both the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tigercats come in with identical 1-1 records. The Blue Bombers though have won six of their last eight road games and while I would of course not be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.

The teams: Winnipeg is led by QB Chris Streveler, who has 424 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. His favorite targets have been Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler, who have combined for 195 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The ground game has been dominant as well, averaging 191 yards per contest thus far, with Andrew Harris leading the charge with 135 on 29 carries. The defense hasn’t been shabby either, allowing 21.5 points and 341 yards per game.

Hamilton has lost six of its last eight home games. QB Jeremiah Masoli so far has 676 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions over the first two games. Jalen Saunders and Luke Tasker have combined for 325 receiving yards and two major scores. Defensively the Ti-Cats are allowing 24.5 points and 388.5 yards per game.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Hamilton is just 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 at home. After back-to-back road games to open the season, I think Hamilton suffers a predictable letdown here, leaving the back door open for the hungry visitors. Play on the Blue Bombers.

The set-up: The Angels were engaged in a pitchers duel in Boston last night, while Baltimore would fall at home to Seattle in extra innings on Thursday afternoon. Felix Pena and the hard-hitting Angels have the advantage in this matchup on the mound though in my opinion, and I look for them to make the most of it. Baltimore sends David Hess to the hill to counter.

The pitchers: Pena is so far 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs with six strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision against the Jays on Sunday. Over two spot starts he’s posted a solid 12:4 K/BB.

Hess is so far 2-4 with a 5.44 ERA. Hess most recently allowed five runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to Atlanta on Sunday. He’s now allowed five earned runs in each of his last three trips to the hill.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 10-1 (+8.2 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore is already just 8-13 (-5.7 units) at home when the money line is set set between -150 and +150. I like Pena to continue his steady progression and for the Angels to deliver the goods. Lay the price.

The set-up: The Yanks had the night off, while Boston played to a lower-scoring pitchers duel at home to the Angels Thursday. This is an important early series and despite each of these starting pitchers having played solidly to this point, I’m expecting some offensive fireworks in the opener. The visitors go with Eduardo Rodriguez, while the home side goes with CC Sabathia.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 9-2 with a 3.86 ERA. Rodriguez has been better than Boston could have possibly asked for this year, but note that he does enter off a terrible outing against the Mariners on Saturday, allowing five runs off seven hits over four innings.

Sabathia is so far 4-3 with a 3.18 ERA. Most recently he allowed two runs over 5.1 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Friday. Sabathia has been decent of late, but note that the Yanks have seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of 25 following a loss.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten “night” games. I’m expecting these hard-hitting line-ups to be the main story-lines in tomorrows summaries. Play the “over.”

The set-up: Ottawa comes in off a satisfying 40-17 upset win over Saskatchewan in its season opener, while Calgary is so far 2-0. East meets West in the Week 2 Opener and I’m expecting more of a defensive battle in this one.

The teams: Trevor Harris had 345 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in his season opener for the Redblacks. Greg Ellingson was his favorite target with eight catches for 104 yards. William Powell had 94 yards on 18 carries with one major score.

The Stamps have been upset in the Grey Cup in each of the last two years and anything less but a trip to the big thing would be viewed as a major disappointment this year. So far QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been solid with 621 yards passing, four TD’s and one INT. Receiver Eric Rogers has six catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns.

The pick: Note as well that Ottawa has seen the total go “under” the number in six of its last eight on the road. These defenses are both underrated though in my opinion and I think the stage is set for those units to step up here on the short week and become the main storyline in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Houston roared back to beat Toronto 7-6 at home last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Tampa Bay had the night off on Wednesday. The visitors go with Lance McCullers on the mound this evening, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek.

The pitchers: McCullers is so far 8-3 with a 3.82 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off four hits and two walks while striking out nine over six innings in a no-decision to Kansas City. Over his last 31 frames of work McCullers has posted a strong 3.48 ERA and 31/11 K:BB.

Stanek is so far 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA. Stanek is only expected to see an inning or two, before making way for Ryan Yarbrough. He’s been good in his limited action, but clearly the book is still out on his overall performance to this point.

The pick: While Tampa has looked better overall of late, it’s still just 22-28 against teams with winning records this year. Houston continues to impress and it’ll look to take advantage of this favorable matchup on the mound as it comes in having gone 25-9 this season against clubs with losing records. Here’s a great opportunity for McCullers. No upset here, lay the price.

The set-up: The Phillies took two of three from the Nationals in the nation’s capital last week. Last night Philadelphia held on for a 3-0 win over the Yankees at home. Tanner Roark and Washington are back tonight, so the home side will counter with its ace Aaron Nola.

The pitchers: Roark is so far 3-8 with a 4.27 ERA. Roark comes in off an outing to forget against Philadelphia on Friday, allowing six runs over 4.1 innings. Roark’s peripherals suggest that rockier times are ahead as well, as his 7.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 both point to regression sooner rather than later.

Nola is so far 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA. Nola most recently gave up two runs off four hits and three walks over six innings while also striking out five in Washington last weekend. Nola has to be feeling confident tonight as well as he’s 6-0 with a 1.86 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Philadelphia has looked a lot better at the plate of late, as it produced considerable production in Washington last weekend. This play comes down to the starting pitchers for me though and in my opinion, Nola has a massive advantage over Roark. Lay the price, play on the Phillies.

The set-up: A couple of capable southpaws square off against each other in this National League series on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, runs definitely will be at a premium. The Cubs go with Jose Quintana, while the Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw.

The pitchers: Quintana is so far 6-6 with a 4.26 ERA. Quintana comes in off an outing to forget against the Reds on Friday, giving up four runs off nine hits with two walks over five frames while striking out three. I think it’s important to note though that Quintana has been solid on the road with a 3.22 ERA, compared to a shaky 6.00 ERA at home.

Kershaw is so far 1-4 with a 2.94 ERA. Kershaw most recently gave up two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out four over three innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Saturday. Kershaw was under a pitch count in his first start back from the DL, but he’ll be given a bigger leash this afternoon. Note that he owns a 2.10 ERA in all “day” games to this point.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 15 against southpaws this year, while LA has seen the total go “under” in 20 of 27 against left-handed starters this season. Expect a tight battle into the latter innings and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the afternoon.