The Blue Jays are on a 4-game win streak, while the Guardians are on a 3-game losing streak.  Different directions.  The Blue Jays were buyers at the trade deadline, while the Guardians were sellers.  They don’t match up here either.  But when you look at probable pitchers Gausman (2.40 ERA in L5) and Allen (2.20 ERA in L5), they have both been effective lately.  Both bullpens are solid too.  And over their last 10 games the Jays are 1-9 on unders while the Guardians are 2-7-1.  In their last 7 the Jays have 5.1 R/9 while the Guardians have 2.4R/9, the total of which is looking good for an under.  All of these facts add up to a pretty clear conclusion on the total for these two in Wednesday’s game.  Go with the under for these two for a solid play.

Two teams struggling to win (both are 1-4 over their last 5) and struggling at the plate over the last 15 are coming up against a couple of interesting probable starters.  Cueto is only five starts into his return from a long layoff but has shown some mastery with a tiny 0.95 WHIP.  Although this hasn’t translated into wins for him he has pitched a 1 and 2 ER outing.  Ashcraft, the ace of the Reds staff, has been very solid as of late (a 1.89 ERA in July) and an ERA of 2.32 over his last 5 starts. 

Both teams are in the bottom half of the majors in avg. and OPS over the last 15 days.  The Marlins have averaged 3.4 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Reds have averaged 4.6 run/9 innings over the same stretch.

All of the above combined with the Marlins 1-5 record and the Reds 0-6 record in unders over their last 6 games and you have a solid value pick for Wednesday’s game between these two underachievers.  Take the under and enjoy this early win to start your Wednesday plays.

The Cubs are absolutely on fire on offense these days, with a line of .310/.992 OPS/L7 games. Compare the Mets at .193/.570, and it is no wonder that they are win-less in August.  Taillon, after a very rough start this season, has impressed lately, while not pitching overly long in his starts.  He had a 2.67 ERA in July and started August with a 5 inning 2 run appearance.  Not so, the Mets' right hander.  It has been more than a month since Carrasco had anything like a quality start.  Last time out, the Royals rang him up for 6 runs and a pair of dingers  over 6 innings.  His OP BA is close to  .350 over the last 5 weeks.

The Cubs are 5-1 in August with a massive 8.6 runs scored a game L7, and are getting solid relief pitching.  The Mets still seem to be in shock after the trade deadline.  This is a very good line given the situation.  Do not wait on this pick!!

Both of Tuesday's starting pitchers have been terrific in their last three starts.  Kikuchi has allowed just a pair of runs over 17+ innings, while Bibee, the Guardians' rookie, has allowed 5 runs in 18+ innings and has a 1.78 ERA in July.  While the Jays are hitting well lately, the Guardians are dead last in OPS over the last two weeks, and struggle vs left handed pitching.  The Jays haven't faced Bibee previously, and this lineup often struggles when facing a new good pitcher.  Both teams have solid bullpens; the Jays' has been especially impressive lately with an ERA of under 3.00. This could be a closely fought pitchers' duel on Tuesday. Take these two teams, who haven't met since last year, to come out under the total. 

The Rangers have won six straight, and now face the A's in Oakland.  The A's must have close to the worst home record in recent memory, and are very poor vs right-handed pitching.  Dunning starts for the Rangers.  He had a couple of rough outings in July, but appears to have turned the corner in his last two  starts. In his most recent appearance he threw seven+ innings of one run ball with eleven K's.  Waldichuk starts for the A's, and he has been very uneven this season.  He hasn't pitched out of the fourth inning in any of his recent and infrequent starts.  The Dodgers roughed him up for four runs in just three+ innings last time out.    A poor A's bullpen (6.00 ERA/L5 games) is not a dependable option if Waldichuk has another short start.  It hasn't always been the case, but the Rangers' pen is in top form with an ERA under 2.00/ L7.

The Rangers are seeing the ball very well  with the third best OPS of .952 in the last week.  While the A's have won two straight, this really should be another win for the hard-hitting Rangers.  Take Texas on the run line at -1 1/2.

The CFL has slowly begun to figure RedBlacks’ new sensation, QB Crumb, out.  It already began two weeks ago vs. the Stamps as they put an LB in place to “spy him.”  They didn’t quite get it down pat, but last week the TiCats did as they put pressure on him and suffocated him in the pocket.  He ran as many times as he completed passes.  That is not a way to succeed in the CFL.  The RedBlacks have five receivers either out or questionable with injuries.  That won’t make it any easier for Crumb.

The Roughriders held both the Lions’ and the Argos’ offences in check over the last two weeks and should have an easier time of it vs. the RedBlacks. 

This is backup QB Fine’s 3rd start in a row.  He should be starting to feel more comfortable and his solid numbers over the past two weeks should translate into points.  Take the points and the Riders for the win.

The Giants are 7-3 but it isn't the offense that is winning games for them.  At .210 BA/.624 they are 30th in the league in OPS over the last two weeks and have scored four or less runs in nine of ten games.  The A's are somewhat better at .231/.693, but have trouble scoring as well, with 3 or less runs in their last five games.  Medina starts for Oakland.  The rookie has improved dramatically this season and is off 3 fine starts, allowing just 3 runs total in 15+ innings.  He struck out 27 batters while cutting down on free passes in July. Cobb likely starts for the Giants.  He blanked the A's in late July and finished the month with a 2.42 ERA.  The two teams are averaging 2.9 and 3.9 runs a game over their last seven, making a total look very promising.  The one issue is the A's bullpen, which has not been very dependable this season, but did show well yesterday.  I am wagering on continued poor offense from both teams and taking the Under today. 

Detroit evened their home series vs the Rays on Saturday much to my surprise and dismay.  It will be Manning vs Glasnow on Sunday.  Glasnow has been super sharp lately, giving the Rays seven innings in three straight games, while allowing just four runs total.  He has pitched better on the road this season. Manning returned from the IL in fine form, but his last two games have been poor.  He has given up 4 home runs in the two games.

The Rays really should win this one.  The Tigers are poor at home and 29th in the league against right handed pitching.  Glasnow is one of the finest right handers around at the moment.  The Rays are hitting much better than in their dark days of July, and fifth in the league against right handers.  Their bullpen is showing signs of improvement, and has a decided edge on the Tigers' relief corps.  Considering how the Orioles are playing, Tampa really can't afford a series loss to a lesser team like the Tigers.

Tampa is 4-1 against the Tigers this year, including Friday's 8-0 pasting.  Look for Tampa to rebound from Saturday's loss in a big way.  Game three will go to the Rays. Take Tampa on the Run line at -1 1/2.

With the Argos running away with the East title, second place is still up for grabs.  By winning this, the Als could put the TiCats to bed and make it between the Als and the RedBlacks.  Given that star offseason signing QB Mitchell is out again long term and Hamilton is down to their 3rd string QB this should be it.  The Als won handily, 38-12, in the first meeting between these two and would take the season series with a win Saturday. 

QB Fajardo has been outstanding after a down year last season and is 4th in pass efficiency, 3rd in yds/pass and 1st with the lowest interception rate.  On top of that the Als have the highest graded O-line according to PFF.  3rd stringer Powell for the TiCats has the lowest avg. passing depth in the league so he won’t be able to threaten the Al’s defense.  Powell has come in to lead an offense that sports the 2nd worst turnover ratio, INTs thrown and penalty rate.  And to top it off Hamilton’s last two starting LTs are hurt, which will be dangerous for the backside outside rush. 

The other problem for the TiCats is their “D” has been less than stellar.  They had a solid outing against a mediocre offense in the RedBlacks but are worst in the league in points allowed, opposition TDs, avg. 1st down plays against and 2nd worst in avg. rush yds against, number of opposition 1st downs, opposition pass efficiency allowed, 30+ yard plays allowed, and opposition yards/play.  Time to lay the points and go with the Als. 

The Royals are a surprising 4-0 in August, hitting well above their weight at .327 BA/.894 OPS in the last week.  They swept both the Mets and Twins, but considering their season, it is hard to think that this surge is sustainable.  One negative in this 8-2 run is the bullpen, 28th ranked this year, and with a 5.45 ERA over the last ten games. The Royals are a poor road team this year, and struggle against left handed pitching.  They will face a fine young lefty in the Phillies' Sanchez.  He has come into his own since mid-June and has allowed no more than 3 runs in 5 starts, sporting a very fine .172 Op BA in July.  The Phillies do have a good bullpen this year, a rarity for them in recent history.  Their offense has been just average recently but they will have their chances today when facing the Royals' Marsh.  The rookie right-hander has struggled more often than not in his first season, giving up 9 runs over 8 innings in his last two starts.  Walks, hit batters, and the long ball have all been issues.  This is the day the Royals come back to earth.  Take the 6-4 Phillies on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Rays made a big pickup at the deadline, adding Guardians starter Civale.  He missed some time to the IL but has been good and consistent since returning, with a 2.08 ERA over his last seven appearances. He has pitched for good length too; 20+ innings of 3 run ball in his last three starts.  Civale is very good in the early innings.  Detroit's lefty Skubal spent many month on the IL this season.  Since returning, none of his starts have been longer than five innings. Two of five starts were ugly and the other two were shut-outs.   He has been very good (in a small sample size) at home.

The Rays' offense is on the upswing, climbing to 10th at .252/.801 OPS, much better that the Tigers' 25th ranked line.  The Rays pen has looked a little more like its dependable self lately as well.  Skubal is all or nothing in his recent starts.  Even if he pitches well he is unlikely to stick around past the fifth inning.  Civale is much more likely to pitch longer.  Tampa has won four straight against the Tigers this year, including Friday's 8-0 pasting.  Look for Tampa to continue it's rebound from a very rough stretch.  Game two goes to the Rays.

Eventually the Argos undefeated string will end but not this week.  They are 6-0 straight up and ATS.  Their offence sputtered a bit last week but between their top notch “D” and their special teams they still put up over 30 points and kept the RoughRiders out of the end zone until garbage time.  The Stamps only pulled off field goals last weekend vs. the Als.

The Stamps are coming off only 4 days rest and their chaotic offense under QB Maier is too mistake prone for the Argos with their league leading +16 turnover ratio, not to take advantage of.  Maier has thrown 11 INTs while the Argos have made 16 INTs.  The Stamps rush game averages only 85 yds/game (7th in the league) and only 51 yds/game for the last 3 games while the Argos only allow 63 yds/game (2nd in the league).  This should make it even tougher for the Stamps pass game.

The Stamps do not match up well with the Argos in so many ways and will not be able to make up the spread.

The Astros lost a close one to the Yankees on Thursday, but I like their chances to bounce back today.  While Hunter Brown's season has been up and down this year, in his last two starts he has been very tough to score on.  He has been solid on the road this season.   The Yankees' right hander Severino has had a very tough year.  Off one of his worst starts (9 runs/3.1 innings), the quality starts have been few and far between.   The Astros are a good road team, hitting very well at the moment (.293/.846 OPS/L7 games). They have made some excellent additions at the deadline, while the Yankees really stood pat.  The Yankees struggle vs right handers this year to the tune of just .226 BA and are giving up more runs than they are scoring (3.6/4.0 L7 games).  It is hard to expect much of Severino.  I'll take the Astros to even the series today. 

The 4-6 Reds ran into a very hot Cubs team that roughed up their pitching pretty thoroughly.  They'll turn to Ashcraft to right the ship against Corbin and the Nationals on Friday.  Ashcraft is back in the groove with a sparkling 1.84 ERA in July.  He hasn't given up more than 2 runs in his last 6 starts, while pitching into the sixth or more.  He held the Nats to a single run over 6 innings the last time he faced them.  His counterpart, lefty Patrick Corbin struggled in July with a 5.83 ERA and a .314 Op BA for the month.  The Reds are the wrong team to face with that kind of an average; they're hitting .265/.820 OPS in the last week, much better than the Nationals.  The Nationals' bullpen is one of the league's worst, with an ERA of 6.23 on the road this season.  The Reds' bullpen has been heavily used and ineffective in their last series, but is still the better of the two.
Cincinnati is 4-0 vs Washington this year. They are heavily favored, and I like their chances.  Take the Reds to build a lead early and hang on for a home win on Friday.

Two Western Conference titans will go head-to-head with the top defence in the league and the most experienced defence in the league.  The Lions are 1st or 2nd in 13 team defense categories while the Bombers are 1st or 2nd in 7 team defense categories.  The key category for both is points against where the Lions are 1st and the Bombers are 2nd.  The Lions “D” has “pitched” two shutouts this year and only allowed the Bombers 6 points in their first game in Winnipeg this season.  The Bombers are coming off a bye so they should do a bit better but not enough to get to a high score. 

The Lions will start their 2nd string QB Evans again this week and he hasn’t had great success against defensive coordinator Hall’s Bombers in the past.  So, in spite of these offenses being highly ranked, they will be in tough for this game.

The Lions are 7-1 in their last 8 for unders on the road, and 10-1 for unders in their last 11 vs. the West.  The Bombers are 5-1 in their last 6 for unders vs. teams with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. the West, and 4-0 for unders after an ATS loss.  There are many more ways these teams favor unders so it’s safe to say playing the under for this game is a good thing.

The 8-2 Cubs are the hottest team in the NL in the last 10 games, absolutely scorching the league on offense (.307 BA, .939 OPS) in their last 15 games.  The Reds have a strong offense (.255, .764 OPS) but pale in comparison.  The Cubs have crushed the Reds in two of three games in the series, allowing a hefty 21 runs, but scoring 41.  Taillon is pitching much better than his season's ERA, allowing just 2 runs in 11+ innings in his last two appearances, with a 2.67 ERA in July.  The Reds' right-hander Weaver is off a solid start but previous July appearances were short and poor. He was hit to a .292 Op BA, and gave up 8 home runs in July.  The Reds are giving up more runs than they score; the bullpen has struggled to a 6.15 ERA/L10, and has been seriously stretched in the last few games.  They'll have a tough time outscoring the Cubs on Monday.  Take Chicago to win at home.

The Royals have won 5 straight games, including 2 against the gutted Mets.  While it doesn't always translate immediately, you've got to think that the Mets will struggle.  KC is hitting well for average, and at least average for power over the last two weeks, outpacing the Mets.  Royals right-hander Singer has had more quality than poor starts in July.  He has a 3.79 ERA since the All-Star  break, and his strikeouts are up, with 19 K's to 3 walks in his last two appearances.  Mets' righty Carrasco is still struggling, allowing well over a run an inning in his last two starts.  The Mets have the better bullpen.  I like KC's chances today, especially early.  Take the surprising Royals to build up a lead and hang on in the late innings. Royals to win three straight over NY.

The White Sox continued their sell off by shipping out starting 3B Burger, to add to their trading away of their top two starters, their closer and their 3rd best reliever.  Probable starter Cease is respectable as the next man up but not enough to tip the scales in the White Sox favor.  His numbers are similar to probable starter Dunning for the Rangers so Cease should keep them even for awhile.  His available bullpen throwers for Wednesday are a step down those from on tap for the Rangers, so things could begin to fall apart after Cease and Dunning have done their customary 5 innings.

Where the game will really go south for the White Sox is at the plate.  Over the last 15 days they have continued to plummet at bat as their team avg. is 26th in the majors and their OPS is dead last.  The Rangers are in 18th and 11th respectively over the same time frame but throughout the season they have feasted on RHPs with the best avg. and the 3rd best OPS in the majors.  These are teams headed in different directions which will make this a solid call for the Rangers to win. 

Probable starting pitcher for the Brewers, southpaw Miley, has been on a heater as of late with a 4-1 record in his last 5 and a scintillating 1.20 ERA.    He has been solid with three of his last 5 starts being scoreless outings for him. The Nationals’ probable starting pitcher is another lefty, Gore. His results haven’t been as great as he’s only averaged 4 IP over that span which has resulted in a 2-3 record, even though two of his outings have been scoreless for the opposition.  He almost must be perfect to get a win for the woeful Nationals. 

The available bullpen for the Nationals sports a 5.43 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP so Gore doesn’t have much backup for this one. 

The Nationals decided to sell their OPS and home run leader, 3B Candelario.  Given their last 7 days have resulted in a 26th best avg and 30th best OPS in the majors this won’t get better in their game against the Brewers.  The Nationals have hit LH starters hard but have only a 15-24 record to show for it.  In terms of run differential against LH starters it is +.2 for the Brewers and -.9 for the Nationals.  The Nationals have a lot working against them for Wednesday’s game and consequently the Brewers will win this one.

The Rangers and the White Sox couldn’t be headed in more different directions.  The White Sox just traded their top two starters, their closer and their 3rd best reliever.  Consequently, this will be a bullpen game for them with probable starter Scholtens making his third start of the season instead of coming out of the bullpen.  There are big holes in the rest of the bullpen that will be called on to help out.  Scholtens lost both starts and has a WHIP of 1.97 in them, so it doesn’t bode well for the White Sox. 

Probable starter Heany for the Rangers is in a more accustomed position with a 2.80 ERA in his last 5 starts, having shutout the opposition in two of those starts.

At the plate the Rangers have been 1st in avg. and 2nd in OPS in the majors against RH starters.  They have cooled down overall lately with a couple of injuries to key contributors but are still far superior to the White Sox who are 23rd in avg and 26th in OPS in the majors over the last 15 days.

On the road with their 20-35 record the White Sox have a -0.7 run differential/9 innings while the Rangers with their 34-20 home record have a +1.6 run differential/9 innings.  Clearly the White Sox are in tough in so many ways that laying the points for the Rangers is a clear call.

These two teams can hit and have been on a tear at the plate lately.  Probable pitchers Sandoval for the Angels and Strider for the Braves have been impressive (especially Strider) and have decent stats but lately they have been involved in very high scoring games.  In the last 5 he has started, Sandoval’s games have resulted in an average total of 11.2 runs while Strider’s have averaged 9.4 runs over the same stretch of games.

Add to that, the fact that these two teams have been productive at the plate over the last 15 days, the Angels have the 4th best OPS in the majors and the Braves have the 2nd best and you can see where this is leading.  Against LH starters the Braves have the best OPS and 2nd best avg. in the majors.  The Angels have the 4th best OPS and 10th best avg. against RH starters.  This seems like a recipe for some serious production at the plate and the results bear that out.  At home the Braves’ games average a total of 10.6 runs/game while the Angels’ games on the road average a total of 9.8 runs/game.  When you put together the Braves average vs LHP (5.9 runs/game) and the Angels average vs RHP ( 5.1 runs/game) you end up with another high total of 11.  In the last 10 head-to-head, these two teams have an over record of 7-3.  All these numbers add up to a great play for the over on this game.  

The Rays, off a road series win vs the Astros, seem to be emerging from their July swoon. They face the 5-5 Yankees whose record benefits from a series sweep against KC, but who have otherwise been equally unimpressive in July.  Tampa's offense is starting to climb up the ladder, now 17th in offense (.241 BA, .746 OPS), while the Yankees are still near bottom-dwellers at .225 BA/.669 OPS.  While neither team has excelled in July, some key features other than starting pitching favor the Rays today.  Tampa is a robust 50-39 vs right-handers (44-42 Yankees) and 18-13 vs division opponents (14-19 Yankees).  Looking at the starters, German has been one of the most uneven starters this season, ranging from his no-hitter in June to a 3.1 inning 10 run dog the previous game.  He has been very poor in his last two starts, giving up nearly a run an inning.  His first inning ERA (6.63) speaks for itself.  Meanwhile Glasnow has had two wins and three two-run or less starts in his last four appearances, ending July with a 2.30 ERA and a .197 opposing batting average.

The Yankees struggle vs right-handed pitching, and Glasow in a good one.  Who knows quite what to expect from German?  NY has the better bullpen, but the offense remains a mystery. Glasnow has been delivering 7 inning starts in his last two games.  I favor the Rays to continue in their rebuild.  Take Tampa to win.

The 7-3 Reds seem to know how to win this year.  They are getting good starting pitching, which includes Sunday's starter Ashcraft.  He has pitched well this month after a dreadful June, with a 2.331 ERA in July, giving up 2 or less runs in his last 6 starts.  It is a similar story for the Dodgers' Grove; poor June followed by a solid July, with a 3.66 ERA for the month.  One caveat for Grove is his Op BA, a hefty .308 for the month.  The Dodgers are hitting well, .271 BA, .806 OPS, considerably better than the Reds. The Reds have a youthful enthusiasm this season earning a split in the last two games , and a 3-2 season lead with the Dodgers.  Aschcraft has been consistent enough lately to question the Dodgers as a heavy favorite. Both series games have been decided by a single run.  Take the Reds on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Cubs are hitting very well at the moment and have won five straight vs the opposing Cardinals, including a recent 7-2 victory featuring today's Cubs starter Taillon.  Chicago has also limited teams to under three runs in four of five recent games while scoring 37 runs L5.  Taillon, who struggled much of the season, has pitched well in July, with a 2.96 ERA  and a 20-4 K/BB ratio.  The Cubs' bullpen has out-pitched the Cards' relievers at a 2.93 to 6.10 ERA over the last ten games.  Chicago has a very healthy 6.9/4.4 runs for and against ratio Last seven games.  The Cards are in the negative at 5.1/6.4 in their last seven games.  Wainwright starts for the Cardinals.  While he pitched well in his last stat, this has not been a fitting end to an illustrious career.  It is hard to bet on his continued success today.  Take the Cubs to win on the road again.

The sad sack Elks are in tough.  This won’t be the night they win their first in 20 games at home or when they cover the spread.  The Lions are just too good. 

The Lions’ “D” is first in the CFL in points allowed and net offence allowed.  The Elks’ offence is last in points scored and net offence.  The Lions’ “D” is second in sacks while the Elks offence has allowed the 3rd most sacks in the league.  QB Cornelius for the Elks has the worst pass efficiency rating (for qualified QBs) in the league and the Lions have the best pass defence in the league.  The Elks have given up the most turnovers, most interceptions and have the worst turnover ratio (-6). 

Have you heard enough yet?  The Elks allow 144 yds/game rushing (worst in the CFL) and the Lions get their star RB Mizzell, back in the lineup. 

And just for a clincher the Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 while the Elks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7.

The Elks are in big trouble.  They were shutout last game against the Lions.  Saturday will not be enough of an improvement to stop the Lions.  Pick the Lions and lay the points.

The Argonauts have been a juggernaut but not as heavy a favorite as the books are offering.   They will be missing a couple of receivers and DL Costigan.  Modest losses to say the least.  What isn’t accounted for is the return of at least 2 and maybe 3 receivers to the Riders lineup.  The Riders will also get starting center Godber back to stabilize their problematic O-line in front of 2nd string QB Fine who will have had a week of reps, film and confidence building after a tough outing against the vaunted BC Lions defence. With Godber back the rush game must improve some which in turn will improve the pass game. 

On defence the Riders get stud DL Lanier back to add to a pass rush that was successful vs. the Lions last week.  The Riders also signed all-star and INT leader in 2021, Washington.  Although he won’t start he should get a chance to make a difference

When comparing the two squads, some key areas are very close.  In opposition net offence allowed, the Riders are 3rd and the Argos are 4th and in first downs allowed those positions are reversed.  In points allowed the Riders allow 24.5/game while the Argos allow 22.2.  In passing “D” the Argos are 8th which should allow a little more success for QB Fine.  When all is said and done, expect the Riders to lose the game but to cover the spread.

It is Dunning vs Musgrove as the Rangers face the Padres in San Diego. Dunning struggled his last time out with his worst start of the year; five runs over three innings pitched. That is two sub-par starts in his last three appearances. And while the Rangers are still hitting very well, their bullpen has not been an asset, resulting in a 6.6/7.3 runs for and against ratio. The Padres hitting still isn’t really where it should be, but they are now 10th in OPS (.811) over the last week. Padres’ right-hander Musgrove has been on a roll with just a 2.00 ERA last three starts. His three runs given up to Detroit last time out is the most he has given up in six appearances. The Padres’ pen has been very strong with an ERA of under 3.00 in home games this year.

San Diego has won each of Musgrove’s last four starts by two or more runs. Dunning’s performance lately is concerning and there is also the bullpen to consider. Look for Musgrove and the SD bullpen to hold down the Texas offense. Take the Padres to win today.

It looks like QB Mitchell will be back for the TiCats this week. It really isn’t any reason to be excited as he has some daunting stats to take note of.  He didn’t do well for the Stamps last season and lost his place to Maier.  But this season his rough ways continued with a 58% completion rate, 53.3 passer efficiency rating and 4 INT vs. 1 TD pass to start out with before he was hurt.  He is returning to play against the best “D” in the league for avg. rushing gain against, 2nd best rush yards against/game and 3rd best in first downs allowed.  His own offence had a very weak run game against the Stamps last week with only 38 yards total on the ground.  It could even be worse this week.  DB Dandridge for the RedBlacks has the second most INTs in the league.  He along with the rest of the Red Blacks “D” will be looking to feast on an O-line that has to pass block all game long and adding to their 4th highest sack total in the league at Mitchell’s expense.

On the other side of the ball Crumb will have even more reps in practice as starting QB to fine tune his game against a Hamilton “D”

that has allowed the most points against, TDs and yards/play in the CFL.  They are also 2nd to last in first downs allowed.  Crumb will also have little to fear against a defence with the 2nd least INTs and least turnovers caused.  With the Red Blacks top rated run game (that includes Crumb himself), Crumb will have plenty of options and time for his pass game.  Clearly you should lay the points and take Ottawa for this one.

Both the Tigers and the Marlins have faltered lately.  Probable pitcher Olson for the Tigers and Garrett for the Marlins have also faltered.  In their last three starts, rookie Olson has a 6.00 ERA and Garrett has a staggering 9.23 ERA.  It hasn’t been pretty.  The Tigers’ road games and the Marlins’ home games average totals greater than 8.  Tigers’ games vs a LH starter and Marlins’ games vs a RH starter both average totals greater than 8

For the season, the Tigers average 3.89 runs for /9 and 4.83 runs against/9.  The Marlins average 4.14 runs for /9 and 4.32 runs against/9.  If you take any two of those averages and add them together you will have a total well over 8.  Go with the over on this game and you will be over the moon.

The Cubs and the Cards have both been up and down this season and ultimately ending up below .500 and side by side in the NL Central.  The Cubs have dominated the Cards and are 3-1 over their last 4 games head-to-head and 5-2 over their last 7. 

Probable starters Steele for the Cubs and Mikolas for the Cards have had some impressive outings over their last 5 starts.  Both have a 2.40 ERA, while Steele has lasted an inning longer on average.  In his last two starts against the Cubs Mikolas is 1-1 with his latest outing against them resulting in 5IP and 5 ERs against.  Steele is 3-0 vs the Cards in his last 3 this season, lasting 6 innings in each, including a July 21st win.  Mikolas gave up 11 hits and 5 ERs in his most recent loss to the Cubs July 22nd. 

Both teams have been at or near the top in avg. and OPS since the All-star break, but the Cubs have been more productive.   In their last 7 the Cubs have a positive run diff/9 innings of 2.7 while the Cards’ is only 0.1.  Additionally, the Cubs average twice as many hits and BB vs. RH starters this season as the Cards do vs. LH starters.  It’s clear that the Cubs should be good value as a play for this one. 

This midweek matchup in the Windy City is a study in mediocrity.  Probable pitchers Stroman for the Cubs and Lynn for the White Sox have struggled lately.  Especially Stroman who had so many fine starts in June and May.  He has a 6.20 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP so far in July.  He is 1-3 in his last 5 starts and has lasted an average of 4.5 innings over that stretch.  He is 4-2 in his road starts which will contribute to our call for the play on this game. 

Lynn has a 4.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP for July.  Not as bad as Stroman’s but not world beating either.  He is 2-4 in home starts.

At the plate the mediocrity is more one sided.  In the last 15 days the White Sox are 13th in avg and 27th in the more influential stat, OPS.  The Cubs on the other hand are leading the majors in both stats over the last 15 days.  They also have a significant positive run differential over the last 7 games of 2.9 runs/game while the White Sox have a negative run differential over the same span of 0.1 runs/game.  At home the White Sox have a negative run differential of 0.9 runs/game while the the Cubs have a positive run differential of 0.2 runs/game. 

In July the Cubs are 10-9 while the White Sox 5-12.  It’s clear that the Cubs are less mediocre than the White Sox.  That is enough to get them over the finish line as a solid value pick on our midweek mediocre feature for Wednesday.

It has been a tough July for the two Florida teams.  Both started off strong, but the Rays have fallen out of first in the AL East and the Marlins have fallen well off the pace in the NL East.  Probable starter Alcantara for the Marlins has pitched well but is still 1-3 in his last five starts.  In July specifically he is 0-3 with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.  He also has an overall record of 2-5 on the road with a 4.91 ERA.

Eflin has been outstanding (apart from a 3 inning, 5 earned run outing at KC recently) with a 10-1 home record which includes 7 innings of shutout pitching vs. the Orioles in their most recent series for first place that led to the Rays’ only win in the series.  His ERA for July has been a respectable 3.68 (despite that disastous outing at KC) and his WHIP has been excellent at 0.82.

Both teams have been in the middle of the pack in the last 15 days at the plate although this season the Rays have a positive run differential vs. RH starters and at home while the Marlins are negative vs RH starters and on the road.  And the Rays have one outstanding stat at the plate as they have the 6th best OPS in the majors at home.

The clincher comes when you realize that the Rays are 9-1 in the last 10 games head-to-head with the Marlins.  Take the Rays in this battle of Florida.

Probable pitchers, Abbott for the Reds and Burnes for the Brewers have been outstanding lately.  In his last 5 outings Abbott’s ERA has been 2.00.  He has allowed 0, 2, 6, 1 and 1 earned runs.  His record has been 3-2.  The two losses have been to the Brewers.  Burnes has been even better with a 5-0 record in his last 5 outings, a 1.60 ERA and allowing 0, 0, 2, 2 and 4 earned runs.  Both pitchers have averaged 6.1 IP over these 5 outings.  The other big difference is that Burnes won his two outings against the Reds in this stretch.  The Reds have struggled mightily to hit against Burnes.  In the last 15 days the Reds have struggled to hit against anyone with their avg. and OPS in the bottom 5th of the majors.

Available relievers is another advantage the Brewers will have over the Reds for this one.  The Brewers look like a great play Tuesday night.

Probable pitchers Abbott for the Reds and Burnes for the Brewers have been on fire lately.  Abbott’s last 5 outings have averaged 6.1 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.00.  Burnes has been even better with a 1.60 ERA in his last 5 starts, also averaging  6.1 innings.  In July his WHIP is a miniscule 0.63. 

In the last 15 days, both teams have been in the bottom fifth of the majors in batting average and OPS.  The Brewers have especially struggled against LHP. 

Starting to look a pretty strong case is being made for an under total.  In their last 8 games over/unders have been 1-7 for the Brewers and 2-6 for the Reds.  Head to head, in their last 10, over/unders have been 3-7 and in their last 5 they have been 0-5.  The recipe for an under looks like it is coming together just fine.

The Pirates swept the Padres in Pittsburgh in June, so a little payback may be in order, starting on Monday.  Yu Darvish will start for the Padres and he has been very sharp in July, allowing 3,1, and 0 runs in his last three starts.  The Pirates have not been hitting well (.218 BA, 6.635 OPS), and are just 4 -13 in July.  Their runs for/runs against ratio is a rough 3.0/6.4. A very fresh face will start for the Pirates.  Priester was roughed up in his first career start, allowing seven runs and a pair of home runs in five + innings.  The Padres are not a team you want to face when giving up long balls.  San Diego is hitting better of late (.245, .798), and ran up 14 runs just a couple of starts ago. Both teams are getting reasonable relief pitching at the moment, but  I think the Padres might run up the score early in this game.  Take San Diego on the run line at -1 1/2.

In a single season, Reds' starter Ashcraft has gone from excellent to awful and now back to solid again.  After a 10.38 ERA in June, he is 2-1 2.00 ERA in July, cutting way down on the long balls.  Ashcraft has consistently pitched better in away games.  Colin Rea (5-4, 4.64 ERA) has been somewhat uneven with about equal quality and poorer starts, pitching 5 innings per appearance.  The Reds tagged him for 5 runs over 4.2 innings just two starts ago.  The Brewers, as usual, are good pitch-no hit this season, allowing 2.7 runs while scoring 3.9 over their last seven games. At 12-6 in July, pitching has definitely carried them, but Rea is not their best starter, and they play a tough offensive team on Monday.  The Reds have re-found their winning touch, now with 5 straight victories.  They tend to win in bunches, and are hitting well (.271 BA, .837 OPS L2 weeks).  They lost 3 of 4 against the Brewers last time out, so will be looking for pay-back today.  Take Ashcraft and the Reds, a small dog today, to win on the road.

Both these teams had confidence boosting wins last week.  This week each will face a defence in the top half of the league and both offences continue to languish in the bottom quarter of the league. 

Calgary will have put together a package to deal with Ottawa’s QB Crumb who surprised everyone in the second half of week 6’s come from behind win over an aging Bombers’ defence with his mobility and ability to find receivers.  The Stamps will not be surprised and will disguise the pass rush and run defence that should be problematic for the QB making his second career start. 

Calgary’s Maier has had problems when he is hurried.  Ottawa is second in the league in sacks.  With Mills and the Calgary run game struggling last week against the Riders, they will not have an easier time this week against the  2nd best run defence in the league.  The Red Blacks have the 3rd highest number of sacks as well so with troubles running the football Maier, will be in some difficulty trying to pass effectively. 

Ottawa and Calgary already have the worst and 3rd worst passing yards/game numbers so put this all together and we have another early season defensive battle on our hands.  Take the under and enjoy the domination of the defences.

The 4-6 White Sox lost the first two games of their road series vs the Twins on Saturday.  It'll be Giolito vs Ober, a pair of quality right handers on Sunday.  The Twins are seeing the ball well, hitting .255 BA/.824 OPS over the last two weeks.  The White Sox are struggling in 28th place in OPS, with a poor 5.0/6.0 runs scored to runs allowed ratio.  Giolito was absolutely bombed last time out after a pair of dynamite starts.  He is a bit Jekyll and Hyde-ish with a road ERA 3 runs higher than when pitching at home.  Ober has been very sharp in July with a 1.89 ERA , 18 K's to 3 walks and just 4 runs allowed.  I favor the Twins pen over Chicago's relievers.  Giolito's future is up in the air, and the Twins are trying to fend off the Guardians for first in their division.  I like the Twins chances for the sweep on Sunday.  Minnesota to win.

The Brewers have been a strong 12-5 in July, with a better winning %  than the 9-7 Braves.  A pair of right-handers with a similar issue start today. Teheran returned from a lengthy absence with a small run of terrific starts, but has since struggled, giving up 17 runs in 16 innings.  He has an OP BA of .327 in July.  Braves' starter Elder has had a fine year until his last two starts.  He has allowed a dozen runs in just 6+ innings, with an ERA of 9.95 in July.  Atlanta is  5.4/6.9 in runs for and against over the last week.  The 8-2 Brewers are not know for offense but have been averaging 4 runs a game lately, and will have their chances against Elder. The Braves' overall ERA over the last two weeks is an ugly  6.14.  Atlanta leads the league in offense and can put up runs in a hurry against a struggling pitcher like Teheran. Take today's game to go over the total.

It will be pitching vs hitting when the Nationals face the Giants in Washington on Saturday.  The Nats are outhitting the Giants at the moment; Washington is 6th in OPS while the Giants are way down yonder at 27th in the last two weeks.  When it comes to pitching it is no contest.  Washington has the league's worst pitching over the last two weeks with an ugly 6.13 ERA.  Their bullpen is approaching double figures in ERA in that time frame. The Nats are giving up a whopping 7.7 runs a game compared to 4.1 for SF.  Webb starts for the Giants.  He is a work horse in top form, giving up just 4 runs while striking out 28 over 22+ innings in his last three starts.  He'll face Josiah Gray, who has had some fine starts this year, but can struggle.  4or 5 runs given up over 5 innings is a common thread for Gray.  While Webb may pitch better at home, Gray's ERA is nearly double in home games.  
San Fran is a very good road team and 33-21 in night games.  The Nats are just 15-32 at home and 18-35 at night.  Look for the Giants to run up the tab against the Washington bullpen and win on the run line (-1 1/2)

The Riders have devoted fans across the country.  No one wants to rain on their enthusiasm.  Sorry Riders fans, this doesn’t look good.  You are going to have to pick the Lions on this one even when your boys are given maybe double digit points.

It starts with injuries.  QB Harris is out for the season.  Starting center Godber is out and maybe LT Council.  The Riders O-line has struggled immensely giving up 4 sacks/game (7 last week) against a Lions’ pass rush that has the 2nd most sacks in the league.  The Riders are last in avg. rushing gain on 1st down.  The Lions’ “D” allows the 2nd least avg. yards rushing on 1st down.  QB Fine is starting his first game.  It could get ugly for pass protection.  And even if he has some time occasionally, the Lions’ “D” is 1st or 2nd in almost every category in the league on pass defense. 

On the other side of the ball the Riders will be missing MLB Dean, DL Lanier and at least two starting DBs.  Their “D” has been solid this year but won’t be able to get off the field with all the 2 and outs the Rider “O” will serve up.  And the Lions’ run game is rounding into form.  It will allow their very solid O-line to set up solid pass protection for QB Adams to find his bevy of star receivers (Whitehead, Rhymes, Hatcher and now Hollins) and pick apart the hurting Rider “D”.  To add insult to injury the Lions are coming off a bye week (teams are 6-1 this season after a by week) and are healthy.  They are 5-0 ATS in their L5 at home and 7-3 ATS in their L10 after a bye.  So, Riders fans, hold your nose, lay the points and take the Lions.  Everyone else, just leave your nose out of it.

It is a battle of two offensive juggernauts when the Dodgers, leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, face the home-town Rangers who aren't far behind at .801.  The Dodgers blew out Texas in the late innings to win game one of the series. The Rangers were 6-0 previous to that game, sweeping the Rays while holding them to just six runs in the series.  The Dodgers are 8-2 L10 games.  Rookie Bobby Miller (3-1, 5.02 ERA/L7 games) starts for LA.  He has had some solid if short starts this season, but tends to struggle after the fourth inning with an ERA of 11.57 in the fifth.  He will face Dane Dunning who has been a pillar of consistency, allowing two or less runs in five of his last six appearances, while averaging six innings per start.  Dunning is 5-0 at home.
The Rangers are a very good home team, and a good bet to rebound after a loss.  Neither bullpen is especially strong. I like Dunning and the Rangers to come out on top today as the pride of Texas take umbrage over a lopsided loss. Take the underdog to win or at least keep this one close.

It is hard to find anything positive about the A's at the moment, other than Friday's starter, lefty J.P. Sears.  He delivers quality starts more often than not and has given up just 4 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts, holding opponents to a very low ERA of .169 in July. Sears is better at home.  The last three of his starts have been decided by one run.  He'll face one of the premier left handers in the Astros' Valdez.  He has struggled a little in his last three games, allowing 11 runs over 18 innings.  In spite of 13 K's last time out he still allowed 5 runs over six innings.  Mind you, he faces the A's and not the Angels on Friday. Valdez hasn't pitched as well on the road this year.   The Astros have the superior bullpen but it hasn't been as sharp lately. About all that  can be said about Oakland's relievers, is that they will be well-rested after Thursday's game.
The 5-5 Astros are not hitting especially well at the moment (.236 BA/.668 OPS L2weeks), really not much better than the A's in the same time frame.  Both starters are likely to last at least 5 innings. Based on Sears' recent performances, I expect a low scoring game, and like the A's chances to keep this game close early. Take the Athletics to lead or stay close after the first five innings, and hang on to cover. A's +1 1/2

The Rays are just 3-12 in July.  While still favored against the Orioles today, there are compelling reasons to back Baltimore.  The Rays just aren't generating offense lately; 23rd in OPS and 26th in RBIs over the last two weeks.  Add in their inability to respond after a loss this year, where they are just 20-19.  Meanwhile the Orioles are hitting everything in sight, and are now first in RBIs and fourth in OPS L15 days.  Efflin has looked solid for the Rays this year, but he is off a poor start last time out, giving up 5 runs over 3 innings.  He will face Bradish who has been white hot lately.  He hasn't given up more than 3 runs in a game since the end of May and allowed only 1 run in his last 3 starts.  He beat Glasnow and the Rays in June.
The Orioles are a fine road team this year, and are getting more than acceptable relief pitching.  The Rays' vaunted bullpen has been a little off lately.
I am on the underdog today.  Jump on the young and impressive Orioles, now challenging for first in their division, to kick the Rays while they are down.  Take the Orioles on the money line.

Olympic champion Canada has a target on its back and is struggling with conflict within their soccer federation at home.  But this team with some legendary veterans and outstanding rising stars has fared well in the lead up to this.  Coach Priestman commitment to defense,  has world class defenders and a goalkeeper that can earn clean sheets but also has ageless striker and all-time international goal scoring leader Sinclair.  They are capable of shutting down anyone.   They also have a rising star in midfielder Awujo who is capable of controlling the flow of play.   They beat Nigeria 2-0 in a friendly and then tied them using most of their bench.  They also beat Australia in two friendlies in Australia.  In the lead up they won their group in CONCACAF and then lost to world number one ranked USA in the final.  If they can overcome the turmoil, they should be the team to beat in this group.

Nigeria has had their own turmoil, as they lost two games in the Africa Cup (which used to be something they dominated) and have had battles with their own federation over unpaid salaries and political selection pressures on the coach.  They have a star striker in Oshoala who is fresh off a Champions League win with Barcelona.  Being ranked 40th in the FIFA is no match for 7th ranked Canada and they are widely predicted to exit the group stage.

The A's won at home on Wednesday, but that is all the winning they've done at 1-9. The Astros haven't been that much better at 5-5, but they are on a 6-0 run vs Oakland this year.  They haven't been getting their usual fine pitching lately, but you can't blame it on Thursday's starter, right hander Ty Frances.  The Late bloomer has been a steady presence in the Astros rotation.  He has allowed 3 ER or fewer and generally pitched into the 6th since the beginning of June.  He has been especially sharp in away games. The Astros haven't given France much run support but they will have their chances against lefty A's rookie Hogan Harris. Harris is an occasional starter/long reliever who has had poor results in his last three games, giving up more than a run an inning.  The A's bullpen is a mess this year and even with the Astro's pen underachieving lately, I still favor the Astros in the later innings.
Houston is a good road team and tough on left handed pitching this season.  The A's are  hitting right handers at just a .216 clip and are a very poor road team.
The Astros are heavily favored, but a more than acceptable bet on the run line.  Take Houston - 1 1/2.

Host New Zealand has qualified for the last 4 World Cups.  They haven’t advanced out of the group stage or even scored a goal.  But this World Cup will be different right?  Nope.  After Klinkova was appointed coach they won only one of their first 14 and were outscored 35-5.   As host , not having to qualify has led them to a most recent record of friendlies of 1-7-1.  They have had five significant injuries in the past year but all have recently returned.  It’s doubtful that they have returned to top form.  They have had the worst sustained stretch of any team in the field.

Norway on the other hand has been a traditional powerhouse in women’s football.  Recently they were humbled though by England 8-0 in the Euros.  Norway legend Riise took over the reigns as coach and has transformed their approach with a defensively stable 4-3-3 or 5-4-1.  This led to beating the finalist from the last World Cup, Netherlands 2-0 in November and drawing Sweden and France earlier this year.  They are the Group A favorite and with superstar Hegerberg and rising star Hansen should dominate the struggling New Zealand side even though they are the hosts.  Lay the points and take the Norwegian side.

After Toronto’s lates experiment with Manoah in the series opener against San Diego, the Blue Jays are back to basics with probable starter Berrios.  He has been solid all year but especially in his latest three starts where his ERA and WHIP have sparkled at 2.45 and 0.82 respectively ( and a miniscule 0.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP for July).  In contrast probable starter for the Padres is veteran Darvish who has been to war against the Blue Jays back in 2011-16 but lately has struggled with a 4.24 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Blue Jays bats have dominated over the last 7 days with the top avg. in the majors and the 8th OPS.  Over the same time period the Padres have an impressive 9th best OPS but a mediocre 19th best average.  Against right handers the Jays are 6th in avg and 9th in OPS while the Padres are much weaker being 26th and 18th respectively.

The Blue Jays only blemish over their last five games was that clunker by Manoah.  They are 19-7 in inter-league games, 26-18 at home and 44-33 vs. RH starters.  By the same token the Padres are 2-3 over their last five (which includes that win against Manoah), 12-11 in inter-league games, 19-27 on the road and 26-33 vs RH starters.  With Berrios doing his thing you should take the Jays to win game two of this series.

Two hot teams and two solid probable starting pitchers will be tested to different degrees.  Southpaw Sanchez has been outstanding for the Phillies since he joined the rotation after his recall June 17th.  He has a stellar 2.77 Era in 5 starts with only 8 ERs in 26 IP.  His WHIP in June was 1.00 and a tiny 0.73 in July.  He will be throwing against a Brewers squad that has the 29th avg and 26th OPS in the majors against lefties.  This is certainly a chance for Sanchez to extend his solid run of late. 

Rea has been solid for the Brewers but his July ERA and WHIP have begun to creep up to 5.56 and 1.24 respectively.  Rea will be going up against Phillies’ batters that have been red hot in July.  They have the 5th best avg. and OPS in the majors for this month. He has only gone past 6 innings twice this year so his bullpen will be relied on.  The available relievers for this game are solid but the bullpen staff has been just OK on the road with a 4.29 ERA. 

If Sanchez needs help the Phillies bullpen has been solid at home with a 2.99 ERA.

This should be a chance for the Phillies bats to continue their July success while it doesn’t look promising for the Brewers against this solid lefthanded starter.  Take the Phillies on the Run Line.

Another pick with two hot teams.  Probable pitcher Grove for the Dodgers has had a very tough year with an injury, a rehab assignment and a total of four recalls from the minors.  He just recently got his ERA below 7.00 for the season and although his WHIP has been falling it is still 1.40 so far for July. 

Probable starter Wells for the Orioles has been a bright light for them and has been the picture of consistency with all 7 of his most recent starts having 2 ERs in each.  He does his part day in and day out.  In terms of available bullpen help, the Dodgers have been better than the Orioles of late although the Orioles still hold the edge over the whole season. 

These are two elite teams at the plate over the last 15 days.  The Dodgers are 2nd in OPS and 12th in avg in the majors, while the Orioles are 3rd in OPS and 4th in avg.  The Dodgers are only 22-20 against teams with a winning record while the Orioles are 30-19.  The clincher for me was the comparison of each team’s recent streak.  The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 against weaker opposition (Mets, Angels and Pirates).  The Orioles have won eight straight vs. much stronger teams (Marlins, Twins and Yankees) and their average margin of victory is 5 runs.  This last stat was the clincher for me that convinced me to recommend you lay the points and go with the Orioles.

Both the Phillies and the Brewers have been hot lately.  But probable pitcher Teheran has been hit hard in his last two starts (6 and 7 earned runs against) and by at least three of the current Phillies’ batters .  In his last 47 AB, Harper alone has 9 HR, 21 RBI, 12 BB and a .404 avg against Teheran.  Harper is not the MVP he once was but he is having a fine year as he is 2nd on the Phillies in avg. and tops in OPS. 

Probable starter Nola for the Phillies has won his last two starts vs. Teheran and is 5-1 in his last 10 starts vs. Milwaukee.  Nola is also 9th in the majors with 120 SO.

Both bullpens have been solid with the Brewers being a little stronger, but the damage should be done before the Brewers’ relievers can step in.  Lay the points and take the Phillies. 

The Marlins were swept by the Orioles, but are a good bet for a bounce back against the Cardinals on Monday.  They are .500 on the road, but 13-6 when Luzardo is on the mound  The left hander has been dominant since mid-June.  He has thrown 6 innings in all three of his last starts, with a pair of shutouts and a two run effort to show.  He gets a ton of strikeouts and shut out the Cards just two weeks ago. Mikolas has had his struggles this year, including a 6.07 ERA in June.  He has looked much better in his last two outings with  seven inning and  rain-delayed three inning shutouts.  Mikolas is pitching on short rest which doesn't always bode well for a starter.  The Cards are 2-1 since the break, but struggle in home games (18-26) and against left handers (9-13) this year.  They are top five in offense (.296 BA, .853 OPS) last 15 days, but their bullpen is not doing them any favors, and they are very poor (17-30) when playing over .500 teams.  The  no-hit  Marlins are hitting for more average and power than usual lately, and have the better bullpen. I like Luzardo and the Marlins' chances.  Play Miami, a slight underdog, to win.

The Twins have racked up a pair of victories in their road series vs Oakland.  They will send out Joe Ryan for the sweep today. Unfortunately Ryan has been very uneven lately, with three of his last five starts of the outright poor variety.  In spit of ten Ks in his last appearance, he gave up five runs in four+ innings. The A's send out young lefty JP Sears, who is much better than his record would suggest.  He has pitched well in his last seven starts with a 3.38 ERA, including twelve+ innings of one run ball in his last two appearances.
The Twins problems this year are road games, where they are three games under .500, and left-handed pitching (.221 BA).  While the A's bullpen has struggled to a 6.04 ERA L10 games, the Twins' pen hasn't been all that much better at 4.91.  The A's have one of the poorest offenses in the league, but if there is any hope for optimism, it is that they have managed eleven runs against the Twins staff in this series.
Seven of ten of Sears last starts have been either wins or decided by one run. With Ryan struggling of late, I like the A's to keep this game close.  Take the A's on the run line today.

The Royals squandered a pair of fine starting pitching performances on Saturday, losing both sides of a double header in the late innings.  Singer will start for KC.  His last two starts typify his season.  He had probably his best performance against the Dodgers 2 starts ago, allowing just a run over 7 innings pitched, but followed up with a 6 run 5 inning appearance against the Guardians. With more poor starts than quality ones, you really don't know what you will get from him.  Singer has struggled in the early innings and in day games.  Whether he pitches well or poorly, the Royals pen is not dependable, allowing 7 runs from the 7th on in Saturday's double header.  The Rays' pen allowed 0 runs in the same time frame on Saturday.
Zach Efflin starts for Tampa. The Rays signed Efflin long term this season, and it has certainly paid off.  He has allowed just 2+ runs on average and 6+ innings per start in his last 5 starts. Efflin beat the Royals in June, allowing 3 runs over 6 innings, including a rare pair of HRs, the only ones he gave up in June.  The Rays are tough on right-handers, and while the offense ran into some trouble before the break, they appear to be on the mend now. The Royals struggle at home, against right handers, and have been one of the very poorest offenses in baseball this year.  Take the Rays to win on the run line again. 

The points offered in the Saturday game between the Bombers and the RedBlacks are the largest for a Bombers’ game since October 2022 when they were playing the hapless Elks.  It seems like a lot until you look at the state of the RedBlacks’ offence.  They are down to their 4th string QB who has never started a CFL game.  In relief last week he threw 2 INTs on a team that already  leads the CFL with 8 INTs given up.  He is up against a Bomber D-line that is 2nd in the CFL in sacks and has the 2nd best rushing defence in the league.  Given that the RedBlacks depend on their running game (3rd best in the CFL), all the Bombers need to do is fill the box to stuff the run and sit back while their D-line harries new QB Crumb and feast on his inexperienced attempts.  The points on offer for this game would need to be well into double digits to make this viable to go against the Bombers.  

Don’t forget, the RedBlacks are last in the league in all four major passing categories (average gain/pass, passing TDs, 30+yards passing plays, passing efficiency).  This is not going to miraculously improve in this game.  Although the RedBlacks “D” has been respectable this season, they won’t be able to hold down the fort when they are on the field for most of the game.  In the above-mentioned passing categories, the Bombers are 4th, 2nd, 2nd and 1st and in rushing yards/game they are 1st.  It should prove to be a long night for the RedBlacks and no problem for you to lay the points and pick the Bombers.

The Rays were on a very rare 1-7 plod before the break, getting short and poor outings from their starters, taxing their overworked bullpen. Add to that, an offense that scored just 1 run in 4 of 6 of their last games.  The Break couldn't have come at a better time.   The Royals are among the cellar dwellers in offense, overall pitching and bullpen results and a lamentable 13-31 at home.  Just what the doctor ordered for the Rays to step out of their funk.  Glasnow starts for Tampa.  He last faced the Royals in July, holding them to a single run with 12 strikeouts.  He will face Royals rookie right-hander Marsh, who has just 2 starts under his belt, allowing 8 runs in 9 innings. The Rays are not the team you want to face for that critical third start. 

Tampa is a heavy favorite, even on the run line, but still a worthwhile bet.  Look for a HUGE game from Glasnow and the Rays and pay the points.

The Red Sox were 7-1 in early July.  Let's see if they can keep it going against the Cubs on Friday.  Young right-hander Bello has had an outstanding May and June, throwing for distance (7 innings on average L5 starts) and allowing 2 or less in 5 straight games.  No surprise, he is even better away from Fenway. He'll face Cubs righty Hendricks, who has had a 3.86 ERA in the 9 starts since returning from the IL.  He gave up 10 hits against the Yankees in his last start, but held the opposition to just 10 runs in the previous 6 starts.  Both pens will be well rested and are pretty evenly matched for the season.  The Sox have the edge in offense at the moment, are 3rd in OPS L15 games, with a very healthy 6.0/3.9 runs for/against.  The Cubs will be missing Swanson, and are hitting just .237/.667 in their last 15 games.  The Sox have some hot bats this season but no Cub has stepped up.

Bello has been my go-to starter lately. Nothing wrong with Kendricks, but  the Sox have a real edge on offense and hit right handed pitching well.  Take Boston to win on the road.

The Rangers stumbled to 3-7 over their last 10 games before the break.  They are still Top 6 in OPS over the last 2 weeks but are 27th in pitching over the same stretch.  Rangers' righty Jon Gray has lost three straight, and 3 of his last 4 starts have been of the poor variety.  He was hit very hard (.360 BA) by the Red Sox in his last start.  He is up against a very fine right hander in Cleveland's Civale, who has averaged 6+ innings pitched and given up 7 runs total in his last 4 starts.  He has an 0.69 ERA with 0 walks in 2 starts in July.  He will likely pitch longer than Gray and the Guardians have the better bullpen, but everyone's pen should be rested and ready to go.  Cleveland has been hitting much better, for average at least.  They are 6-3 in July, 8th in BA over the last two weeks.  I like the Guardians chances on Friday.  While Texas is power hitting side, it remains to be seen if they will continue to struggle.  As good as they have been this year, they are just .500 as a home favorite.  Take the Guardians, behind Civale's pitching to keep this one close.  Take Cleveland on the Run line at +1 1/2.

The Argos and the Als are early season favs in the Eastern Conference.  Argos are missing LT Cage and MLB Williams and LB Muamba.  But their defence has been one of the top without those two LBs and with a rotating cast of DLs.  Heninger is the only major absentee for the Als on the DL as top DB Evans is slated to return.  The major problem for the Als is their O-line, healthy or not, just can’t seem to get the job done for the rushing game.  The Als were last of all the teams that played last week, for rushing performance.  This week they face an Argos “D” that is first in the CFL in run yards against, average run yards against and rush TDs.  Given that the Als have also surrendered the most sacks in the CFL on QB Fajardo they will be in a tough place.  With no threat of a run game, the Argos will be able to pin their ears back and go for it when Fajardo will be having to pass so often. 

On the offensive side of the ball, except for the Als' week run game the two teams are a saw off.

Coach Dinwiddie of the Argos has his team 5-2 when coming off a bye week.  The Argos were 2-1 in the series against the Als last season (losing only a mean nothing game in the last week of the season).

The Argos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 against Eastern Conference opposition.  The Als are in tough so lay the points and go with the Argos.

By almost every metric these are the two worst defences in the CFL.  TiCats have the worst average points and TDs allowed.  The Elks have the worst opposition average net yards allowed, 1st downs allowed and average yards/play.  In most of the above listed categories the other team is 2nd worst.  There are some differences though that could be telling.  While the TiCats have the 2nd worst average passing yards allowed, the Elks have the 3rd best.  And the Elks have the second highest number of interceptions so far this year (2nd only to the Argos after their ridiculous 6 INTs against the Lions)  while the TiCats have the 2nd least interceptions in the CFL.

Last week the TiCats squeaked out a win over the RedBlacks and their 4th string QB while the Elks lost a heartbreaker by one point to the 3-1 Roughriders in a game they dominated in many facets and that they should have won.  Hamilton only made 43% of their 2nd conversions while the Elks made 57% of theirs.  Although the TiCats signed star running back Butler from the Lions this offseason, the Elks with Brown have had the superior running game this year and QB Cornelius has proven effective running the football this season. 

Both O-lines are banged up with Hamilton still missing star LT Figueroa and coming off only 5 days rest.  The Elks have had 6 days rest and are playing at home.  This should be the game the Elks break their long home losing streak and pull off the straight up w

The Lions and the Als both had their offences humbled last week.  Given that these two teams possess the top two defenses by the numbers, this could be a tough week.  They are 1st and 2nd in terms of points allowed by the opposition offence, net offence allowed/game, passing yards allowed/game, and the opposition’s passing efficiency.  The Als also are second in the league in interceptions which after throwing 6 picks last week will not be welcome news for Lions’ QB Adams.  BC does have the highest average passing yardage/game and passing TDs but Montreal counters with the highest passing efficiency rating and average gain/pass. 

So where do the opportunities exist in this standoff.  First of all BC’s WR Whitehead returns to action, making Sunday’s game the first all season that will feature him with Hatcher and Ryhmes (last season’s only three 1000 receivers on one team).  Second, the Als will be missing two starting DBs, Evans and Lyon, so that will reduce QB Adams’ fear of picks.  Evans has been especially effective as he is tied for the league lead in interceptions (BC will be missing one Starting DB).  But third and most tellingly, the Als have allowed the 2nd most sacks in the CFL this year.  The Lions’ defense has made more sacks than any other CFL team.  That in tandem with the Als’ weak running game should spell a long night for QB Fajardo. 

Historically the Als have not fared well in Vancouver as they have only two wins since 2000.  It doesn’t look like the Als will break that string of defeats in Week 5 either.  Pick the Lions and lay the points.

A pair of 4-6 teams meet up for the tie-breaker when the White Sox' RH Giolito squares off with Cards' lefty Steve Matz.  Giolito has been a bright spot in the Sox' rotation, consistently delivering 6 or more innings on average.  He had an ERA of 2.32 in June, and held the Jays to just 4 hits over 6 innings his last time out.  Matz is a different story.  He has been used in long relief with good success (1.64 ERA in June) after struggling as a starter this year, although he gave up a pair of runs in 2+ innings in his last appearance.  As a starter, he was hit very hard, especially in the first inning (10+ ERA).  He has also struggled in away games.  I don't expect many innings from Matz today and there-in lies the problem.  In spite of their strong relief effort yesterday, the Cards' pen has struggled on average, with an ugly 7.71 ERA over their last ten games. not that the Sox relievers are great, but Giolito should give them respectable length, seeing limited Chicago bullpen time.

Statistically St. Louis has the better offense, but the Sox have been hitting left-handed pitchers very well in their last ten games.  Look for them to take a lead early and hold it for the win today.

The Rangers and Nats split the first two games of their Washington interleague series, but I like the Rangers chances in the tie breaker on Sunday.  Rangers' right hander Dunning (8-1, 2.69 ERA) has been sharp and consistent since day one.  He gave up just five runs in June.  In his last three starts he has averaged seven innings pitched with a 2.08 ERA.  He will face aging and long suffering lefty Patrick Corbin (5-10, 6.88 ERA).  He is a workhorse for innings and can have an occasional quality start.  Corbin shut out the Mariners over five innings, but sandwiched  that start with a pair of very rough innings. The rough starts are unfortunately more of the norm; he was hit at a .322 clip in June.
The Rangers are slumping, but hitting has not been the cause.  They are 2nd in the league in OPS/L15 games and love hitting lefties (298 BA, .847 OPS) this season. The Nationals are averaging just 3.3 runs scored while giving up 7.9 over their last seven games.  The Rangers pen is no great shakes, but the Nats' is even worse.  Dunning and the Rangers are a very large favorite, but a very respectable bet on the run line.  Take the Rangers to walk away with this one.

The 7-0 Mets are starting to fulfill their potential in all categories including starting and relief pitching.  This includes lefty Peterson, who has pitched well in his two games back from an extended visit to the minors.  While not pitching past the fifth, he has allowed just a single run over ten innings in those two appearances.  While the jury is still out, it appears he has re-found some of last year's form.  He'll face another left hander, Blake Snell, who is 4-1 with an ERA of 0.64 in his last seven games, with two shutouts in his last three starts.  
The Mets' bats, lead by Lindor and Pham are leading the league in slugging and OPS over the last seven games. The Padres are also hitting well, putting up 6.9 runs per game over their last seven games.  The bullpens could be the difference today. With the length the Mets have been getting from their other starters, the pen is well rested and very sharp, with a minuscule ERA of 1.25 L3 games.  Not so the Padres, whose bullpen has a hefty 7.88 ERA L10 games.
We saw the Padres lose badly to the Pirates in spite of 6 innings of 2 run pitching in Snell's second-last start.  Look for the Padres to lead early based on Snell's fine pitching, but I do like the Mets to gain back ground in the later innings and keep this game close.  Take NY on the run line at +1 1/2.

For Ottawa there is good news and bad news and then some sort of good news.  Ottawa got their first win in week 4 and then their winning QB turned out to have a torn ACL and is now out for the season.  The sort of good news is that star QB Masoli is back after a year off from a broken leg.  Great to have him back, but welcome to the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the CFL.  As the rest of the league is beginning to get enough reps on offence to shake off the rust and begin to string some plays into drives and hopefully into points, Masoli will be starting at square one.  It won’t be pretty.  His star favorite receiver from last year, Ellingsen, is still out and this year’s top recruit Evans is still out too.

Luckily for him his “D” has been solid this year with the third best results in the league for yards allowed and points allowed by their opponent’s offence.  They should be able to contain Hamilton’s offence, what with two starters on the O-line (including the off-season’s biggest signing LT Figueroa)

Hamilton has their own problems with top signing QB, Levi-Mitchell, on the shelf.  Backup Shiltz has slowly improved, with his best outing in week 4, but although they lead the league in red zone trips they have the third worst points for number in the league.

What we have here is a perfect storm for a low total.  They are the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in offense yards/game, last and 2nd to last big plays (20+ yds rush play; 30+ yds pass play) and major questions with unproven receivers on both sides. 

Put that together with under being 5-2 in both their last 7 in Hamilton and against each other and you have a pretty strong case.

Another interesting stat is that by the end of week 4, 66% of games have been under and to start week 5 both games have been under.  Going for the under with these two sputtering teams is a good call for this one.

The Jays have won four straight games, thumping the Tigers on Friday.  Detroit will try and even the series, sending out right hander Matt Manning.  With just  two starts under his belt since a long stay on the IL, Manning has given up 6 runs in 10+ innings since returning.  The Tigers will need innings from him on Saturday; the bullpen has struggled to a 6.75 ERA/L10 games.  Gausman starts for the Jays.  The All-Star has pitched well this season with very infrequent poor starts.  He had a 2.97 ERA in June, putting up 50 K's and allowed just 2 runs in his last start.  The Jays have been getting reasonable success from the pen of late.

The Jays have won four straight games, are top ten in slugging over the last 10 games, and are starting to get offense from their big bats, especially Bichette and Guerrero. They are tough on righ t handed pitching.  The Tigers are still scuffling down in the basement at 27th in OPS/ L10 and 28th against right handers this season.  I am wagering on the favored Jays today.  Take Toronto on the run line at -1 1/2.

Two solid starters, both just seven starts in from an IL return, square up in Game two of the KC/Cleveland series.  Royals' lefty Lynch has allowed just four runs over 18 innings in his last three starts, including a pair of rare Royals wins. It is a small sample size but Lynch has been very strong (1.89 ERA) on the road to date.  Guardians' right hander Civale has given up two or less runs in five of his last six starts.  He held the Cubs to just three hits over six innings last time out. The Royals' offense just isn't getting the job done, managing just 8 runs in their last 4 games.  Cleveland does not hit left handers very well, managing just.234 BA, with very few home runs to date.
With just 7 starts each so far, Friday's pitchers are just hitting their stride(s) at this point. Both starters will very likely pitch effectively for a least five innings.  While the Guardians' bullpen is dependable, KC's is a different story, however Lynch has won two of his last three starts, and offers solid start length. I'll hold my breath re: the Royals' relievers, but I am wagering on the under on Friday.

The 1st place Braves and Rays don't face each other very often.  So what have these two teams done lately?  Atlanta is 9-1, and  putting up very impressive numbers with the bats. The 0-5 Rays are in a bit of a slump, managing just 6 runs in their last three games.  Comparing runs for and against, the Braves are a formidable 7.0/2.3 L7 while Tampa Bay is barely breaking even at 5.1/4.9.  Charlie Mortlon starts for Atlanta.  He has 3 wins in his last 3 starts, shutting out the Marlins last time out.  He has been better on the road this season, and while he won't give you much more than 5 innings, he has been a consistent presence in the rotation this year.  Rays' right hander Glasnow (4.50 ERA, 2-2) has pitched relatively well since his return, regularly pitching into the 6th.  He has a ton of strikeouts (23 L2 games) but does give up the long ball.  The Rays have been especially dependent on their bullpen of late, averaging more than 4 innings of use a game but the Braves pen is better rested and for effective lately.

The Braves are a formidable team on the road, and an unlikely spot for the slumping Rays to turn things around.  Take Atlanta to steal this game on the road.

The Elks can’t catch a break.  Still winless, they are coming off of 3 games in 11 days and a short week to prepare for their second road game in a row.  Their O-line is still in a state of chaos with two more injuries, as QB Cornelius will return after losing his starters' role for last week. Consequently, they have allowed the most sacks in the CFL. The Elks are also last in offensive points and net yards in the CFL. 

To make matters worse their defense is last in total points allowed, last in rush yards allowed and they have allowed the most big plays(20+yds. rush, 30+ yds pass) of any “D” in the league.  They are not in a good place in so many ways.  Their pass “D” is a little more respectable but they are going against the 2nd top passer in the league in QB Harris.

The Riders also have injury problems on their O-line but they at least are coming off a bye week.  Two starters on the O-line are out and one more is questionable.  Even so they still have the 3rd most productive ground game in the CFL with the dynamic duo of Hickson and Morrow.  Given the Elks weak pass rush 9last in the league) and rush defence the Riders shouldn’t be troubled.

As if the Elks don’t have enough problems they also have discipline problems as they have the 2nd most penalty yards against while the Riders have the 2nd least.

All of this points to a Riders win and covering the spread.

The Guardians took two of three from the Royals in KC at the end of June, outscoring them 19-6.  In their home series opener, they'll send out their impressive rookie Bibee who has certainly been trending in the right direction in his last three games, allowing three runs, then one, then finishing with a shutout, pitching five or more innings in each start.  The Guardians' bullpen is generally very solid, but especially so at home this year.  Their 2.18 ERA is less than half the Royals relievers' road ERA.  The rookie will face the Royals' Lyles (1-11, 6.68 ERA).  Lyles improved in June, finishing with a 5.40 ERA.  He gave up four and three runs in his last two starts, but as his record would suggest, he doesn't get a ton of run or relief support.  He has a very poor road ERA of 8.02 this year.

The 3-7 Royals were just swept by the Twins, are second last in OPS over the last two weeks, and are 12-30 in road games this season.  The Guardians are hitting 40 points higher for average and 70 points higher in OPS over the last two weeks.  Cleveland is a heavy favorite, but a very strong option on the run line.  Take the Guardians at -1.5.

Soroka for the Braves and Quantrill for the Guardians are both just recently back in the majors.  Neither has settled in well yet.  Soroka’s last three starts have resulted in a 6.89 ERA.  Quantrill has been even worse in his last 3, losing them all and getting shelled to the tune of a 15.44 ERA.  His last one, which was his first after his rehab assignment, he lasted 3.1 innings and was shelled for 6 runs.

Chances are both managers will go to their bullpen fairly early which will be tough as they played 10 innings Tuesday night.  The Braves bullpen has had 1.99 ERA in its last 3 and 2.88 ERA in its last 10.  The Guardians (who have a good bullpen) have had a 4.88 ERA in their last 3 and 3.96 in their last 10 so the edge goes to the Braves in this one.

The Braves bats though have been tops in the majors the last 15 days with the #1 OPS and #2 avg while the Guardians have been in the bottom third of the majors for OPS (9th in avg.).

This season the Braves have been 27-12 on the road, 13-3 as a road fav, 7-1 in their last 8 road games and 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. RHP.  The Guardians have been a modest 20-20 at home this season.  This all adds up to the Braves having no problem covering the spread.

Probable starter Walker has been on fire for the Phillies lately with 5 straight wins with 1 or less earned runs in each outing.  His June ERA and WHIP were 1.50 and 0.89 respectively.  Even without all the other supporting evidence he would be a great pick in this game.  It looks like the Rays will have a bullpen game with Littell starting his second game of the year.  His ERA and WHIP are respectable  (3.63 and 1.07 respectively) but the rest of his bullpen does not compare to the Phillies bullpen over the last 3 games.  The Phillies have a miniscule 1.57 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over that span while the Rays are 3.63 and 1.07 over the same span.

Both teams are hitting in the top third of the majors with the Phillies a few places above the Rays over the last 15 days. 

Some other startling stats are the Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. RHP starters on the road, 12-1 in their last 13 road games (including a win over the Rays on Tuesday night) and 20-7 in their last 27 overall.  The Rays are in a bit of a skid lately as they are a mediocre 5-5 in their last 10 and have lost 3 in a row.  Not sure why the Phillies are the underdog in this but I won’t complain.  Jump on this pick quick and take the Phillies on the money line.

Both probable pitchers have run hot and cold lately.  But Davies of the D-backs just pitched 7 shutout innings, while Senga has only allowed 2 runs in each of his last two starts. 

Both teams have been middle of the pack in hitting over the last 15 days.  But in terms of runs neither have produced much.  In their last 7 games the Mets have averaged 4.0 runs/9 for and the D-backs have averaged 3.9 runs/9 for.  Both those are under the expected line of 9.  On top of that the Mets have only allowed 3.1 runs/9 against while the D-backs have only allowed 3.3 runs/9 against.  All of these numbers add up to a low scoring affair.

In Senga’s last 5 starts on grass the under is 5-0 and his last 4 on the road have the unders at 4-0.  The D-backs are under in all 5 of their last 5 games and they have the unders at 5-0 in their last 5 on grass.  It should all go together to get you under the wire with a safe play on the under.

Probable starter, 41 year old Wainwright for the Cards has been looking like his nickname (Uncle Charlie) out there lately.  In his last 3 starts he has averaged 3.7 IP, 1.3 SO and 5.3 earned runs against.  In June his ERA and WHIP ballooned to 9.00 and 2.23 respectively.  Marlins’ Luzardo’s June ERA and WHIP of 0.93 and .673 respectively are in sharp contrast to Wainwright’s numbers.  Those are pretty extreme numbers at either end of the continuum for both pitchers.  This could be the end of the road for Wainwright. 

With Wainwright getting pulled so early lately, that is a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has struggled to a n 8.27 ERA in its last 5 games.  The Marlins’ bullpen has been better as of late and so should be able to carry Lazardo’s start across the finish line if needs be. 

Both teams have been in the top ¼ of the majors in hitting stats lately but clearly the Cards will have a tougher go against Luzardo than the Marlins will against Wainwright.  The Marlins should easily cover the spread on this one.

It is only week 4 and already we have a big game between the last two remaining undefeated teams.  Some pundits are calling it a pick ‘em match up.  I disagree strongly.  This means they will bail out and offer an over/under pick.  But there is a clear play here. 

The easiest way to make sense of it is to look at the quality of the opposition each team has played.  Much like Saturday’s game, one team has gone up against much tougher opponents.  BC has played the Bombers (now 3-1), the Stampeders and of course the weak Elks.  Toronto has faced the RedBlacks (1-2) and the TigerCats (0-3).

Against weaker opposition the Argos’ defence has allowed more than 100 yards more per game than the Lions’ defence.  The have also allowed opposing QBs to complete 77% (9th in CFL) of their passes while the Lions have allowed only a 57% (2nd in CFL) completion rate.  BC’s stingy “D” has allowed a meager 7 pts/game while the Argos have allowed 22 pts/game. 

Yes the Argos are near the top with 399 yds/game offence, 37.5 pts/game and only 1 sack allowed but they have not faced anything close to the Lions’ defence which leads the league with 11 sacks.  To add to their level of difficulty on Monday, the Argos will be without their starting LT Cage (a crucial position against league sack leader Betts who humbled all star LT Bryant in week 3). 

The Lions will be missing one of their star receivers, Whitehead, but they will have two of last year’s 1000 yard receivers back in the lineup.  Rhymes and Hatcher missed the game against the Bombers but will return to give QB Adams more weapons.  The Argos will also be missing MLB Williams and LB Muamba, so the CFL’s second leading rusher Mizzell will be harder to handle.  It seems clear that the play is for the Lions to cover the spread.

The 0-3 Marlins were embarrassed by the Braves on the road, but were very good in previous action, winning 6 of 7 games.  They allowed an average of just 2 runs per game over that stretch.  They are 25-16 at home, facing a Cards team that are 5 games below .500 on the road.  Cards' right-hander Mikolas has an ERA of  over 6.00 in his last three appearances, with more poor than quality starts in June.  Mikolas gives up more hits than one would care to see; opposing batters hit .325 against him last month  He will face Miami starter Garrett Braxton, one of the better young lefties in June.  He has given up just 4 runs in 4 appearances, with a very fine 13-1 K to walk ratio.
The Cards offense has picked up, but they are giving up a pretty hefty surplus in runs allowed to runs scored/L7 games.  Miami can't claim the same level of offense, but they are hitting well for average over the last two weeks, and give up 3 less runs-allowed per game/L7 compared to St Louis.Garrett is a fine pitcher of late and also gets run support. The Marlins have won the last 7 of Garrett's starts, scoring 5 or more runs in all but a single game. Take Miami to play with a little more urgency after being swept. Take the Marlins to win. 10*!

The Cubs and Guardians split the firsts two games of their Chicago series.  The 6-4 Guardians are playing better lately.  Their pitching has seldom been in question this year, but the offense has perked up, climbing all the way to seventh in OPS lately.  They are hitting right-handers at a nearly .300 clip in their last ten games.  In spite of the ten-spot they put up on Friday, the Cubs offense is only average lately.  Here is an odd stat.  Chicago is a very poor 2-11 on Sundays while the Guardians are 9-5.

Taillon has struggled this year with just one quality start in June and a 5.60 ERA for the month.  He has been particularly poor at home to date, and struggles after the fourth inning.  Civale's (3.18 ERA) last start was his worst, giving up three runs in the sixth inning, but has otherwise been very dependable since his return at the beginning of June.  In an admittedly small sample size, he has been very strong on the road this year. Both teams have very good bullpens at the moment.

I like the Guardians' chances today.  While they aren't the best road team, they have a definite step-up in starters, and have been tough on any right-handed pitching, let alone one that has struggled.  Take Cleveland to win.

The Bombers were humbled last week against the Lions.  They are a veteran team.  They don’t lose their focus and run around like angry young men in practice to get back on track.  They know that they have what it takes.  Many of them took practices off this week to lick their wounds and reset.  Star defender Jeffcoat will be back on the D-line and veteran CB Houston will be back in the secondary after being out against the Lions.  They know Alouettes QB Fajardo has a banged-up O-line that has already averaged 5 sacks against a game to start the season and will be eager to take advantage. 

The Alouettes defence has done well against 2 of the 3 worst teams in the CFL so far this season.  But now they are banged up with MLB Williams and star DB Evans on IR.  DL Heninger may not play either.  Bombers QB Collaros will have taken note and his proud veteran  O-line will want to make amends after surrendering an unheard of 7 sacks against the Lions last week.  The Bombers run game is 2nd best in the CFL in yards/game and without their starting MLB the Als will be in tough.  Look for the Bombers and their varied passing and running attack to win and cover the touchdown.

The Marlins were on a five game winning streak before being rudely interrupted by the Braves.  While the Braves have owned the Marlins in the past, I believe Miami will bounce back from Friday's miserable loss with a much better effort.  The Braves have not yet faced Miami's secret weapon, Euly Perez.  He hasn't allowed a run in three starts and had a 0.32 ERA.  Is he due for a stumble?  Even against the hard-hitting Braves, I don't think so.  39 year old veteran Charlie Morton, starts for the Braves.  He has been a good dependable starter for the Braves, consistently delivering five innings, and allowing about three runs per start.  The Braves have a solid bull pen at the moment.
Other than Friday's shelling, the Marlins hadn't allowed more than two runs in five straight games.  They have some offensive upside at least in BA lately. Perez has delivered 6 innings in his last starts.  I think the Marlins, a significant underdog, will get their backs up and will stick around in this game.  Take Miami on the run line at +1.5. 10*!

Severino shut out the hard-hitting Rangers over five innings in his last appearance.  That's a fine start and a better start in his last two, possibly a sign of his return to form.  He has only seven starts this year, spending a ton of time on the IL, so he is a good bet to finish the season well. He'll face Cards' starter Jack Flaherty who has now struggled badly in two straight starts.  He has pitched well at times this season, but has an ERA for May and June of over 5.00, and has an opposing BA of over .300 in the last two months.  
The 6-4 Yankees appear to be righting their ship.  They  won their last two series and are making their way up the the offensive ladder after dwelling in the cellar for some time. The NY bullpen is now back in form with a recent ERA approximately half of the Cards' relievers. Meanwhile the Cards are still struggling.  Their home record is absolutely awful this year.  They were pummeled in their last two games, and are still hitting well below average of late.  I'm wagering on Severino and the Yankees, both on the upswing, to win on Friday.

This is the turtle derby with the two winless wonders, the Elks and the RedBlacks, doing battle.  Both teams have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball.  So much so that they will both start new QBs this week.  Doege had some good results in relief of Cornelius albeit in garbage time against the Argos last week while Adams did just OK in relief of the hapless Arbuckle.  The QBs aren’t the problem as both teams have chaos causing O-lines that can’t control the line of scrimmage enough for their skill players to produce.  And the Elks will be without starting LT Garnett this week.  On top of that the little passing production the Elks had against the Argos will be reduced without star receiver Lewis and wily vet Arcenaux. 

The Elks defence hung in there for the first half against the Argos but just ran out of gas because their offence just couldn’t stay on the field long enough for them to catch their breath.  Given that the RedBlacks seem to have mastered the 2 and out so far this year the Elks “D” should perform better.  The Redblacks D-line should continue their successful ways against this woeful Elks O-line and its resultant weak rushing attack.

These two teams’ offences are 8th and 9th in the league in total yards, passing yards and points scored.  The Elks have averaged 14.7 points/game while the RedBlacks are even worse with a 13.5 points/ game avg.

You can see where I’m headed here.  In their last 9 head to head the under is 9-1 between these two teams.  The Redblacks have had an under total for all 3 games this season, are 7-1 for the under in their last 8 week 4 games and 4-1 in their last 5 games in June.  The Elks unders are 2-1 this season.  Although the field is dry and artificial turf these two offences will mud wrestle their way to an under total on Friday night.

The Cubs have lost 4 straight immediately after winning 4 straight.  They are favored vs Cleveland on Friday, and are very good as a home favorite this year.  They are, as usual, a perplexing team, but with left hander Steele on the mound, a win is certainly not out of the question. Steele has had a very solid year, and has looked sharp in his two games back from the IL.  he has a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts and has been especially good at home this season.  Chicago is getting great support from their bullpen, even outstripping the Guardians' relievers in recent action.

The Guardians will start righty Quantrill fresh off the IL himself.  His season has been marred by significant injury and substandard pitching, so he is very much in a "show me" situation.  In spite of Clevelands' recent hitting surge, the Cubs have the superior offense this season.  Cleveland has been very poor in interleague match ups and has limited experience against Steele.  I'll take the lefty and the sluggin' Cubs to win at home.

The 5-2 Dodgers are starting to hit better and are winning a few games.  The Rockies are struggling at 3-7.  The Rockies Anderson had a  surprisingly strong May, but based on his track record, you had to believe that it wasn't going to last.  Sure enough in his last two starts, he tumbled down the stairs, giving up 16 runs in 5+ innings.  He has allowed 10 dingers this month, not a good look for a Rockies pitcher.  The Colorado bullpen has been very poor (7.00 ERA) lately, so don't look for solace there. 

One thing the Dodgers can do is hit the long ball. They will start rookie Sheehan, who has started his career in a very positive way.  It is a small sample size so far but we will see how he fares in Coors Field today.  The Dodgers' bull pen is not the dominant one of old, but at leAst is better than  the Rockies'.  I'm wagering on Sheehan and the long ball today.  Take the Dodgers to win on the run line at - i 1/2.

The Mets, just 7-17 in June, face the light-hitting Brewers for the series tie-breaker.  With Scherzer on the mound, the Mets are a large favorite.  Scherzer's last two starts have been vintage Max, but he has been uneven this season.  Houser starts for the Brewers.  he has started just two games in June, for a total, including relief efforts, of just 16 innings this month.  While Houser hasn't pitched poorly, I still think that we can expect to see plenty of the Brewers' bullpen. Relief pitching has been their forte this season and especially lately.  Neither team is hitting well, 25th and 26th in OPS in recent days.  The Mets' bullpen is still struggling with an ERA over 5.00 of late.
Considering the Mets very humble results lately I don't really buy today's odds.  The Brewers have good success vs right-handed pitching.  The Mets are very poor against teams above .500.  Take the Brew crew on the run line at +1.5. 9 *!

39 year old Greinke has pitched well at times for the Royals this year, but has struggled in June.  His starts are 5 innings or under and his ERA is at a very poor 9.00 ERA for the month.  Even when Grienke does pitch well, he can't seem to win a game as the Royals' relief pitching ERA hovers around the 5.00 mark.  Not to mention the Royals are 28th in the league in OPS for the season. 

The Guardians' right-hander Bieber is off a pair of poor outings but is a likely candidate for bouncing back on Thursday.  While he has been uneven this season, he'll throw longer than Greinke and with far more upside.  The Guardians' bullpen is, as usual, very sharp.  They are 7-3 as a road favorite, and hitting right-handers more than 50 points higher than KC.  The Royals still struggle  at home, just 10-29 in Kansas City this season.  I am wagering on Bieber and the Guardians to win on Thursday.

These two probable pitchers have been outstanding lately.  The White Sox’ Giolito is having an amazing June as his ERA is 1.50 and his WHIP is 1.04.  In his last start he whiffed 10 batters over 6 innings and gave up 1 earned run in a losing effort.  In his last 3 starts Giolito’s ERA is 2.00.  Angels’ Barria usually works from the bullpen but has started 4 games this season.  In those four starts his ERA is 2.83. 

But what about the under records for these two teams.  The White Sox unders are 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs right handed starters and 3-0-2 in their last 5 on the road.  In their last 11 the Angels’ under record is 11-0 vs. teams with a losing record.

In terms of hitting, the woeful White Sox are 26th in avg. and 25th in OPS over the last 15 days.  The Angel are in the top 5 in both stats over the last 15 days but in their last game against Giolito the Angels lost and were held to 4 hits against him over 5 innings.  This looks like another solid total.  Go with the under on this one. 

Probable starters Giolito for the White Sox and Barria for the Angels have been hot lately.  The biggest difference is that Barria’s Angels have scored almost 100 more runs than the White Sox have.  And the Angels are on fire lately as over the last 15 days they have been top 5 in the majors in avg and OPS.  The White Sox, over the same time period, have been hitting in the bottom quarter of the majors in avg. and OPS.  In their last 10 vs. RHP the Angels have averaged 6.75 runs/9, while the White Sox have averaged ½ of that number.

Add to that the Angels’ 4-0 record in Barria’s last 4 starts and their 4-0 record in Barria’s last 4 starts on grass and you start to understand the validity of this play.  Go with Barria and the Angels on the Money Line.

Probable pitchers Bradley for the Rays and Gallen for the D-backs are both having solid seasons.  But looking under the hood for both shows a deterioration in June.  Bradley’s ERA has ballooned to 4.26 and his WHIP is 1.46 for the month.  Gallen’s has crept up too to 3.16 and 1.25 respectively.  Bradley is only lasting an average of less than 5 innings per outing.  He really has depended on a solid Rays bullpen to bail him out.  It may be too late by the time they arrive though as the D-backs are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS. 

In terms of scoring, the Rays have averaged 5.67 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.24 R/9.  In their L10 the Rays have averaged 6.71 R/9 while the D-backs have averaged 5.94/9.  Those two sets of stats point to an average total of well over 10 for this match up.  Take the over on this one.

The probable starters for this one are both solid pitchers.  Ryan for the Twins is coming off a complete game shutout, even though his two outings before that were pretty bad.  He averages 6 IP/start this season, so against a hard hitting Braves lineup it should be 6 or less.  If that’s the case his bullpen has not been great the last 10. 

On the mound for the Braves, probable starter Elder has been even more solid than Ryan.  He pitched 7 shutout innings his last outing and gave up only 1 earned run in the start before that.  His bullpen has been much stronger the last 10 games so when he gets pulled he will have that support.

In their last 15 days of baseball the Braves lead the majors in avg. and OPS while the Twins are 22nd in both statistics over the same period.  The Twins batters also have the 2nd worst strikeout rate in the majors.  On top of that the Braves have average 8.66 R/9 vs. RHP this season while the Twins have averaged 4.01 R/9 against righties.  In their last 7 the Braves have averaged 8.1 runs/game while the Twins have averaged 4.3 runs/game.  Those two sets of stats alone easily make the spread.  It seems pretty clear to pick the Braves to cover the spread.

The Reds are hitting exceptionally well at the moment, first in BA and OPS over the last week..  They have had to to keep winning, with an overall ERA of 6.00+ lately. Reds' lefty Williamson has an ERA of 5.64 in June and he will face much tougher competition in the Orioles on Monday.  The second inning has been deadly; he has an ERA of over 12.00.  The Orioles have pitching woes of their own, both starting and relief.  Mondays' starter Irwin has been a little better in his recent call-up, but his innings have been limited .  He has struggled the third time through the order with a frightening ERA of 32.40 when pitching into the fifth.  Relief is not in sight, with a bullpen ERA of 7.56 over the last 10 games. 

Two solid hitting teams, two struggling starters and bullpens.  Let's not stray from the obvious on Monday.  Take the Orioles and Reds to go over the total.

Everyone is high on the Argos after their 2022 Grey Cup win and week 2 victory over the TigerCats.  But they were not dominant, especially in the air.  The Elks improved defence held powerhouse BC to 22 points and QB Harris and Saskatchewan’s passing attack to 17 points.  They haven’t given up a rush TD yet and that is the only way the Argos got TDs in their first game. 

The Elks haven’t’ won at home in a long time but they are 8-2 in their L10 at home vs. the Argos and 7-3 overall in their L10 vs. the Argos.  The Argos are missing their top 2 receivers for this game and their starting C Ciraco is a game time decision.  Chad Kelly hasn’t proven himself yet; only one full game and relief in the Grey Cup last year. 

Everyone is focused on the struggles of Elks’ QB Cornelius.  He hasn’t been impressive, that’s for sure but the Argos will be missing monster DL Oakman and LB Muamba so the Elks’ iffy O-line might have a bit of a chance to help Cornelius out a little more. 

6.5 is a lot of points to give the Elks on this one.  I think they have a good chance to make use of those points and keep it close.  Pick the Elks on this one.

The Pirates evened the series with the Marlins last night, but might struggle to generate enough offense today.  They are dead last in the league in both BA and OPS over the last 7 games.  Just 7-13 in June, they are also well below par vs right handers.  They will face a rookie phenom, Euly Perez, who has been absolutely terrific of late, shutting out the Jays and the Mariners in his last 2 starts, while giving up just a single run over 17 innings. He has enough starts under his belt to not expect a significant drop-off today.  Today's starter for the Pirates, Oviedo has also been effective in June, if he can get out of the first inning unscathed.  He struggles to a 9.00 ERA out of the gate.  Of concern as well is his road record.  He has been less effective, at 1-3, with a 5.08 ERA.
The Marlins aren't a power-hitting team but they have been hitting for very high average (.302 BA L7) of late.  They appear to be a legit contender this year, are 14-7 in June, 9-3 as a home favorite, and strong against right-handed pitching.  They also have the better pen.  I'm wagering on Perez and the Marlins to bounce back and win at home today.

If I had to pick one pitcher to step into the limelight in London, it might be Stroman.  He doesn't lack FOR confidence, and it doesn't hurt that he has won 7 straight games with a sparkling 1.29 ERA.  He has also pitched for length, lasting into the 6th or more in 7 straight as well.  He'll face the Cards' young left-hander Liberatore, who's starts have been short and generally pretty average, with a 6.12 ERA to date.  He has also struggled on the road.  With just 15 appearances, who knows how he will respond to such a showcase event.  Chicago is 12-7 in June, and 13-9 vs left-handers.  They are getting solid offense and excellent overall pitching, resulting in an impressive 6.1/2.3 Runs for/against in their last 10 games.  The Cards have struggled in June and against right-handers of late, breaking even at 5.1/5.1 Runs for and against. Watch for the "Stro show" to win out in London.  Take the Cubs to win Game two.

After years at or near the top the Stampeders were humbled last season and are still moving in a downward direction.  Hard to believe they are favored over the Roughriders who had some bad luck with illness and injury last year.  The brothers Dickenson are going to do battle with the Roughriders’, Craig in a much more precarious situation than Dave has been after years of success with the Stamps.  This desperation has filtered down into Craig’s Roughriders who are playing like there is no tomorrow. 

With veteran QB Harris at the helm the Roughriders had passing success against the Bombers last week that even outstripped what BC did in their surprising domination of the Bombers this week.  Meanwhile new starter Maier for the Stamps was humbled against BC and only had modest success against the lowly Redblacks last week.

Roughriders’ all-stars Moncrief(LB) and Marshall(CB) return this week as do starters Hawkins(LT) and Kelly(OL).  These upgrades to the O-line should allow Harris to do even more of his magic. 

Maier and the Stamps will be missing their top WR Begleton as well as top RB Carey and starting LT Coker is still out.  As Maier still really hasn’t found his footing he could struggle.

ATS the Stamps are 2-8 over the last 10 after a win and 7-20 in their last 27 home games.  Hard to believe the Stamps are so heavily favored.  Take the points on offer to the Roughriders as they should win going away.

The 7-3 Red Sox won the opener on the road vs the White Sox on Friday.  Second time around it will be lefty James Paxton vs the Chicago's hard luck veteran Lance Lynn.  Lynn has struggled this year in most starts.  He struck out 16 last time out and still lost.  K's aside, it is earned runs that have been the issue; 12 in 17 innings in June alone.
We have barely seen Paxton in recent years, but it appears that he is both healthy and in good form since returning from the IL. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.33 in June, while holding opposing batters to just .182.  He is no slouch for strikeouts either, with 24 as opposed to 4 walks this month.
The Red Sox are better on offense, and have acceptable relief pitching at the moment.  The White Sox do not fare well vs over .500 teams, and for what ever reason are truly awful in home games this year. I'll take Paxton over Lynn at the moment; in most other categories Boston has the edge.  I am seeing "red" again on Saturday.  Boston to win Game two.

The hard hitting Texas Rangers have now won four straight against the Yankees this season, holding them to 2 or less runs in each game.  The Yankees' bats truly are woeful of late, with a .179 BA and a .563 OPS.  They are giving more run than usual as well.  The Rangers are well above .500 on the road and have climbed back to 4th in OPS lately.  Jon Gray gave up 6 runs in under 3 innings last time out, a very rare poor appearance, which is almost universally the case after a complete game performance in his previous start.  Otherwise he has been excellent and consistent; a fine candidate for a bounce back start on Saturday.  Yankees right-hander Severino looked somewhat better in his last start, allowing 4 runs over 5 innings, but his appearances have generally been short and poor in June.  The Yankees should have the edge in the bullpen, but they have multiple pitchers on the IL.  Take the Rangers to give the Yankees another kick while they are down.  Take Texas to win again.

After six straight wins, the Red Sox were beaten by the Twins on consecutive days.  Young right-hander Bello starts for Boston on the road on Saturday, hoping to turn things around.  He has been very good since the end of April, and is now pitching for length as well as ERA. He has a 2.70 ERA to date in June.  He'll face veteran White Sox righty Giolito who has been lights out in his last three starts with an even better June ERA of 1.50.  Giolito has been very good at home this season.  The Red Sox are top three in BA and OPS and have a great runs for and against ratio of 7.7/3.3 in the last week.  The White Sox are struggling with the bats, hitting .218, with a .646 OPS.  They are a rough 27th in the league against right-handed pitching.  Boston has the better relief pitching at the moment.  The White Sox' relievers are skirting the 6.00 mark in collective ERA for the last ten games. Better hitting, average as compared to below average relief pitching, and a toss up on the mound to start.  I am seeing RED for Friday.  Take Boston to win.

Montreal has only played one game.  They are barely out of pre-season and that means a disjointed offence in the CFL in June.  Hamilton’s starting QB is a game time decision that seems to be leaning towards not playing.  Hamilton’s O-line is banged up and dysfunctional.  Starting LT (Figureroa) and RT(Riley) are both out and 5 other O-linemen are on IR.  Top receiver Bayless is also out.  Not a recipe for a successful offence.

Both teams were already looking like they were going to depend on their defences this season. 

The under is 4-0 for the last 4 between these two teams in Hamilton.  Under is 6-1 for the last 7 between these two teams.  For Montreal unders are 6-1 in their last 7 following a win.   Clearly with past records and underperforming offences in June you should take the under for this game.

The Reds may be the hottest team in baseball at the moment, but I'll take the Braves in most situations, including Friday's.  Atlanta is a fine road team, with a 14-3 record in June.  They lead the Reds in recent offense, and are considerably better against right-handers.  Cincinnati have been winning big at home lately.  They have also been winning Weaver's recent starts in spite of mostly very poor pitching performances, especially in June when his ERA has ballooned to 10.13.  The Braves are the wrong team to face with the opposition hitting Weaver at a .356 in June. The Reds are just 24-26 vs right handed pitching, and will face a rookie right-hander with a very high upside in Smith-Shawver.  He has pitched well in his first two starts.  Start #3 can be a tough situation, but I still favor him over Weaver.  Both teams have solid bullpens, but I believe this game will be over early, as the Braves get their licks in vs Weaver.  Take the Braves to break the Reds' win streak on the road.

The big dogs are playing a game already.  The undefeated Bombers and Lions with their dominant defences will punish their respective offences in a classic early season battle.  For the Lions two of their top receivers are out (Rhymes and Hatcher) and their third top receiver (Whitehead) is back and could be fragile.  For the Bombers their star RB (Oliveira) is questionable which could be a setback for their league leading rush game. 

This game pits the #1 pass offence (Bombers) against the #1 pass defence (Lions).  June in the CFL always gives the edge to the defence.  The Lions’ defence is also #1 in points allowed with a miniscule 7.5 points against/game so far.  Combine that with the Bombers only allowing 29 points against/game and you have a total of only 36.5 allowed/game by these two defences.

In their last 6 games under is 6-0 for BC and their last 5 road games under is 5-0 (that includes two games in Winnipeg).  An interesting stat is that the Bombers in their last 7 week 3 games have unders dominating 6-1.  Go with the under and enjoy a smash mouth defensive battle.