All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
10-01-17 | Saints -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 134 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL will play a second straight game in London and the fans at Wembley Stadium are hoping to see a more competitive game than the Jags' surprising 44-7 rout of the Ravens last Sunday. The Saints opened their 2017 season by losing 29-19 at Minnesota in Week 1 and 36-20 at home vs. the Pats in Week 2. The Saints earned their first win of the season 34-13 in Carolina this past Sunday against the Panthers. The Dolphins make the trek "across the pond" at 1-1. The team's Week 1 game vs. Tampa Bay was postponed due to Hurricane Irma and after a 19-17 Week 2 win over the Chargers in LA and a 20-6 loss on the road to the NY Jets last Sunday, the Dolphins will be on the road (and how!) for a third consecutive contest. New Orleans: The age-less Drew Brees was 22-of-29 for 220 yards and three TDs in last Sunday's win and enters this contest completing 68.5 percent for 867 yards (Saints rank 5th in passing YPG) with six TDs and not a single INT in 111 attempts! Adrian Peterson has been a non-factor (77 yards on 3.3 YPC), as the running game has not been much of a help, averaging 96.7 YPG (18th). Defense has been a major concern in recent years for New Orleans and that's true again so far in 2017, as the Saints are allowing 26.0 PPG (30th) on 437.7 YPG (31st). Miami: The jury is still out on Jay Cutler, who is completing 64.9 percent but for only 450 yards (Miami ranks 21st in passing YPG) with two TDs and one INT. Cutler has gotten no help from a running game averaging 70.5 YPG (29th) and Miami enters averaging only 12.5 PPG (30th) on 280.5 YPG (28th). The defense has allowed 351.5 YPG (25th) but only 18.5 PPG (6th). The team will have to cut down on those yards, or that scoring average will almost surely rise. The pick: Brees is still on top of his game and Miami is allowing 8.6 yards per pass play, the worst mark in the NFL. The London folks may be in for quite a display from the veteran. Miami's offense is coming off an embarrassing performance in last week's 20-6 loss to the Jets, avoiding a shutout by scoring in garbage time on the game's final play. That last game was a disaster," Miami head coach Gase said. "That's obvious, and it's embarrassing." He may have seen nothing yet. 2017 could be a long year for the Dolphins. Yes, New Orleans has its defensive problems but does Miami have the players to take advantage? I think not! Meanwhile, the Saints have lost to two quality teams (Vikings and Pats) and the team has yet to commit a turnover. I'll throw in that the Saints are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 October games and while maybe it means nothing, it's not a bad thing. Make New Orleans an 8* play. |
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09-30-17 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma State opened the season by beating Tulsa (59-24), South Alabama (44-7) and Pittsburgh (59-21) but was humbled at home last Saturday 44-31 by TCU, being done in by four turnovers. The Cowboys had fans dreaming of a Big 12 title and possible berth in the College Football Playoff but now Oklahoma State just looks to get back on track with a ninth straight win against Texas Tech when the Cowboys visit the 3-0 Red Raiders on Saturday in Lubbock. Texas Tech forced five turnovers in its 27-24 road win over Houston last week and are currently second in FBS in turnover margin (plus-2.3 per game). Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph threw for 398 yards against the Horned Frogs but had two interceptions and lost a fumble, dashing his early-season push for the Heisman Trophy. He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,533 yards with 13 touchdowns and three INTs. He has a deep receiving corps with four players with 14 or more catches, combining for 12 TD receptions. WR James Washington leads the way with 19 catches for 520 yards and four TDs, averaging 27.4 YPC. The running game averages 175.0 YOPG (5.0 YPC), led by the duo of Hill (352 yards on 5.7 YPC) and King (210 yards on 6.5 YPC). The defense has allowed 24.0 PPG (61st) on 366.0 YPG (53rd). Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are ninth in scoring (45.0 PPG) on 587.3 YPG (4th). QB Nic Shimonek is completing 73.6 percent for 1,248 yards with 11 TDs and one interception. WR Keke Coutee has 28 catches for 446 yards and four scores. Defensively, Texas Tech is allowing 26.3 PPG (73rd) on 407.3 YPG (85th). That may not seem like a big deal but note that Texas Tech allowed 43.5 PPG on 554 YPG last season. The pick: Texas Tech rallied from a second half, double-digit deficit last year, only to lose 45-44 on a missed extra point with 1:44 left in the game. The Cowboys come to Lubbock in an attempt to extend their eight-game winning streak in the series. Oklahoma State dropped nine places in this week's Associated Press poll (falling from No. 6 to No. 15), so this is a "MUST win." Considering that the Red Raiders are just 6-29 SU vs. ranked teams, the 8* play is on Oklahoma State. |
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09-30-17 | Ohio State -29.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 56-0 | Win | 100 | 104 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ohio State Buckeyes may never overcome that home loss to Oklahoma and qualify for the CFP, unless the team "runs the table." Ohio State is 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) and will visit High Point Solutions Stadium in New Brunswick, NJ to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-3, 0-1 Big Ten). These schools had never met until Rutgers joined the Big Ten and Ohio State has won by scores of 58-0 (2016), 49-7 (2015) and 56-17(2014). Safe to predict the Buckeyes won't lose here, either. Ohio State: J.T. Barrett was not up to the task vs. Oklahoma (zero passing or rushing TDs with one INT) but has completed 37-of-50 passes with seven scoring TDs and zero interceptions in victories over Army (38-7) and UNLV (54-21) the last two weeks. In last week's game vs. UNLV, Ohio State had seven different players catch a TD pass. Barrett is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 966 yards with 10 TDs and one interception, while adding rushing yards ( TDs). OSU has excellent offensively balance, passing for 319.2 YPG and 229.8 YPG on the ground. J.K. Dobbins leads the way with 520 yards (7.5 YPC) and three touchdowns. More good news is that sophomore RB Mike Weber has been cleared to play after being bothered by a hamstring injury that has limited him to seven carries after he rushed for 1,096 yards last year. Defensively, Ohio State is allowing 20.0 PPG (38th) on 367.2 YPG (56th). Rutgers: Head coach Chris Ash was an Urban Meyer assistant and may be re-thinking his decision to take the Rutgers job. The Scarlet Knights were 2-10 last year (won home games over Howard and New Mexico) and have opened 1-3 in his second year (lone win over Morgan State at home!). The good news in New Jersey is that the Rutgers' D is allowing 18.2 PPG (28th) on 298.2 YPG (24th). That's down from 37.5 PPG allowed in 2016 on 451 YPG! Rutgers has QB woes for the last few seasons and the team's latest starter is Kyle Bolin, who is completing just 57.3 percent of his passes for 642 yards with three TDs and six INTs. The offense averages only 326.8 YPG (111th) and is a little better in scoring, averaging 27.2 PPG (83rd). The pick: I just noted that Rutgers is averaging 27.2 PPG but that's because the Scarlet Knights scored 65 points against Morgan State. In its other three games, Rutgers has averaged a paltry 14.7 PPG. How can this team 'hang' with Ohio State? Urban Meyer is in his sixth season at Ohio State and comes to Rutgers having gone 23-1 SU on the road. Yes, this is an imposing pointspread but as noted above, in three meetings the last three years, Ohio Stat has out-scored Rutgers by a combined 163-24. That's 54.3-to-8.0 PPG! Lay the points and make Ohio State an 8* play. |
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09-30-17 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Phillies are hosting the New York Mets this weekend, as both teams are glad to see the 2017 season come to an end, as both can then look forward to the hope of better things to come in 2018. The visiting Mets lost 6-2 on Friday, snapping a modest three-game winning streak. At 69- 91, the Mets will now need to win one of their final two games to avoid falling shy of 70 victories for the first time since 2003. The Philly win puts them in a position to win four straight games for the first time in two months. Philadelphia is now 22-16 at Citizens Bank Park since the All-Star break, which has helped the 69-95 Phillies climb over the Tigers and Giants (both 63-97) and out of the MLB 'basement!' The pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (7-5 & 4.72 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, up against Henderson Alvarez (0-1 & 3.60 ERA) of the Phillies. Jacob deGrom was scheduled to make Saturday's start for New York but a case of gastroenteritis has ended his season. Instead, Seth Lugo moves up a day to get the ball. Lugo is coming off his best start of an otherwise difficult season, posting six scoreless innings and striking out seven to defeat Atlanta 3-2 this past Monday. It was the third time in his last four starts that he has allowed one or zero runs. Lugo gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings at Philadelphia on Aug. 11 in a no-decision while striking out a career-high eight. He's made just two career starts vs. Philly with a 6.97 ERA but the team is 2-0. Alvarez has been plagued by injuries since leaving the Marlins after the 2015 season (note: he threw a no-hitter as a Marlin in 20013 and was an All Star in 2014). He did little with Oakland (mostly sidelined with injury issues) and signed a minor league deal with the Phiilies in August of 2017. He allowed four runs in five innings in his first start with the Phillies on Sep. 17 but was much better last Saturday, pitching five scoreless inning against Atlanta, finishing with two strikeouts and three walks. Alvarez is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets (teams are 6-3). The pick: Lugo's shown his best over his last four, with one poor start but just a single ER allowed over 17 innings in the other three (0.53 ERA) plus Alvarez is a former All Star pitching with no pressure. What's more, Philadelphia's bullpen boasts a 2.45 ERA over the last 31 games. make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-30-17 | Navy v. Tulsa UNDER 72.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 100 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Navy is 3-0 to open the 2017 season (2-0 in AAC play) and looks to start 4-0 for the second time in three years when it visits the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa Saturday at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Tulsa could use a feel good victory here, as the Golden Hurricane have opened 1-3, with the team's lone win coming 66-42 over ULL (another 1-3 school) at home. However, losing at home 16-13 to New Mexico last Saturday hardly inspires much confidence, plus the team lost a 54-51 hesrt-breaker at Toledo the week before! Navy: I'm a huge fan of head coach Ken Niumatalolo and Navy's overall discipline. QB Zach Abey is completing just 36 percent of his passes but he has made the most of his nine completions, throwing for 295 yards and three TDs. His strength is leading a rushing attack which averages 393.0 YPG (2nd), after Navy rushed for 569 yards in last week's 42-32 victory over Cincinnati (the second-most in program history!). Abey has 471 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) and four TDs. Navy is averaging 35.7 PPG, well on its way to its fifth consecutive season in which the Midshipmen will have averaged better than 31.8 PPG! Navy allowed 31.0 PPG in 2016 but just 24.0 PPG so far in 2017, an improvement of a TD per game! Tulsa: QB Chad President is completing a modest 55.9 percent of his passes for 677 yards with just one TD and one interception. That's hardly the standard for past Tulsa QBs. However, Tulsa's ground game is averaging 311.5 YPG (4th), the reason Tulsa checks in scoring 38.5 PPG. The problem for Tulsa is, its defense is allowing 42.8 PPG (124th) on 590.2 YPG (129th). The pick: OK, so here we go again. Regulars are well aware that I've 'made a killing' with my CFB totals in 2017, specializing in going under on over/under numbers like this, which are 'sky high.' Let's chalk up another one here. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-30-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -14.5 | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Northwestern Wildcats and 3-0 Wisconsin Badgers meet Saturday afternoon at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. Both are members of the Big Ten West and this marks the conference opener for each school. The Wildcats own home wins over Nevada (31-20) and Bowling Green (49-7) but couldn't handle the Blue Devils at Durham, falling 41-17 to Duke (currently 4-0). Wisconsin opened its season with 59-10 and 31-14 home wins over Utah State and Florida Atlantic, respectively, before winning 40-6 at BYU. Both teams come into this contest off a bye. Wisconsin leads the all-time series 58-35-5 and note that the home team has won eight of the last 10, recently. Northwestern: The Wildcats are averaging 32.3 PPG (58th) on 459.0 YPG (45th). QB Clayton Thorson is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 842 yards with four TDs and three INTs. The Wildcats' ground game is averaging 160.3 YPG (74th), led by RB Justin Jackson. He's now a senior and entered his final season off three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons (he's on the verge of breaking the school's rushing record). Jackson was held to 18 yards at Duke but topped 100 yards in Northwestern's two wins (248 yards with four TDs, overall). Defensively, Northwestern is allowing 22.7 PPG (52nd) on 410.3 YPG (90th). Wisconsin: The Badgers were ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and are currently ranked 10th. QB Alex Hornibrook is completing 70 percent of his passes for 701 yards (Wisconsin averages 235.7 YPG through the air) with eight TDs and just one INT. He's greatly aided by a Wisconsin ground game averaging 275.3 YPG (12th), led by RB Jonathan Taylor (438 yards on 8.3 YPC with five TDs). On the other side of the ball, not much is different than from years past. Wisconsin currently checks in allowing just 10.0 PPG (5th) on 248.0 YPG (7th). The pick: This Wisconsin offense wasn't up to the task of winning at Durham against Duke. No way it wins here at Camp Randall. The Badgers defense is a 'horse of a different color,' coming off holding BYU to 192 total yards and it has yet to allow a SINGLE point in the second halves of its three games to-date! Wisconsin entered the 2017 season having gone 60-9 SU at home the previous 10 seasons (that's less than one loss per season). Don't expect a loss here either and if fact, lay the points and make the Badgers a 10* play. |
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09-29-17 | Mariners v. Angels -158 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels were eliminated from playoff consideration earlier this week and the team has continued to spiral downward. LA will wrap-up the 2017 season with a three-game home series with Seattle, having lost nine of its last 11 games. Seattle also had its hopes of ending a 15-season playoff drought before it fell out of the wild-card derby because of its own swoon. The Mariners lost eight of nine games in a pivotal stretch before recovering to take two of three from the Oakland A's to open the final week of the season Monday through Wednesday. The pitching matchup: Marco Gonzales (1-1 & 6.25 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle and Tyler Skaggs (2-6 & 4.48 ERA) for Los Angeles. Gonzales is making his seventh start for the Mariners but his first since beating Texas back on Sep 12. Gonzales has made two relief appearances since his last start (three scoreless innings) but he's been very ineffective over his 10 appearances in 2017, as he owns a 1.78 WHIP and .360 BAA to go along with his 6.25 ERA. Gonzales started against the Angels on Aug. 11 and gave up one run (on a homer) and four hits in 4 1/3 innings while drawing a no-decision (lone appearance against LA in his brief career). Skaggs received a no-decision in his last start when he allowed four runs on six hits in five innings against the Houston Astros. He's made 15 starts in 2017 with LA going 7-8. He did turn in a strong outing against Seattle on Aug. 10, giving up five hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings of a no-decision. Skaggs is 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in six career starts against the Mariners (teams are 3-3).
The pick: The 78-81 Angels need a sweep of the Mariners to avoid their third losing campaign in five seasons. Let's not get ahead of ourselves but the Mariners may not put up much of a fight this weekend. Surely, Gonzales should be no trouble of the LA bats. Make the Angels an 8* play. |
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09-29-17 | BYU v. Utah State OVER 46 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 81 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The BYU Cougars have opened the season 1-3 and Friday night will travel to Romney Stadium in Logan, Utah to take on the 2-2 Utah State Aggies. The Cougars were off last Saturday, after losing 40-6 at home to Wisconsin on Sep. 16. The Cougars were out-gained by the Badgers 491-to-192 in total yards, as the the team's season-long offensive woes continued (BYU ranks 130th in scoring at 9.8 YPC). Utah State improved to 2-2 on the season after defeating San Jose State 61-10 this past Saturday. The Aggies jumped all over Spartans, scoring the game's first 55 points and out-gained them by a margin of 589-to-171 in total yards. BYU: It's hard to imagine that BYU, a school known for its offensive prowess over the years, ranks 130th in scoring and 129th in total yards (221.8 YPG). Tanner Mangum was named the starting QB prior to the season but suffered a leg injury during the final play of the Cougars' 19-13 loss to Utah on Sep. 9. Beau Hoge started in place of Mangum against the Badgers, completing 11 of 20 passes for 111 yards and two interceptions in what was the first start of his collegiate career. According to BYU head coach Kalani Sitake, Mangum's availability against the Aggies is still up in the air (note: Mangum took the field as a team captain wearing a protective boot and with an accompanying riding scooter prior to the Cougars' 40-6 loss to Wisconsin). Defensively, BYU has allowed 27.0 PPG (53rd) on 404.0 YPG (82nd). Utah State: Dominating San Jose State is nothing to brag too much about. Leading the way for Utah State was QB Kent Myers, who completed 18-24 passes for 181 yards and two TDs with an INT. The Aggies are averaging 33.0 PPG (56th) on 439.0 YPG (55th) with nice balance (264.0 passing / 175.0 rushing). Defensively, the Aggies are allowing an average of 32.0 PPG (103rd) on 385.0 YPG (66th). Utah State has been helped by forced nine turnovers in four games. The pick: This is the 87th meeting of this series (BYU leads 48-35-3) but I'll note that Utah State has won seven straight home games against non-conference opponents. BYU comes in with an offense which has done nothing but the Cougars are dropping way down in class after losses to LSU, Utah and Wisconsin (combined 10-1 SU). The Cougars have dominated this series since 1983 (won 25 of 28) and I see a "breakout performance." This 'low' total sets up a 10* play on the Over. |
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09-29-17 | Pirates v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 105 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Nationals manager Dusty Baker is liberally resting his stars in a bid to keep his team as healthy as possible as it awaits postseason play. That includes the recently returned Bryce Harper and naturally, people are interested."Nothing. Don't be alarmed. Nothing. Again ... nothing," Baker said in response to reporters asking if something was wrong with Harper, who missed 1 1/2 months with a knee injury before returning to action on Tuesday. The Nats have a huge series looming as they will face the defending champion Cubs in the NLDS. Washington won 5-4 last night in the first of this four-game series with Pittsburgh, a team which will miss its second straight postseason (currently 73-86), after three consecutive wild card appearances (all losses though!) from 2013-2015. The pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole (12-11 & 4.23 ERA) starts for Pittsburgh and Stephen Strasburg (14-4 & 2.63 ERA) for Washington. Cole picked up his first win since August 26 last Saturday, although he allowed five runs on seven hits in the Pirates' 11-6 win over the Cards. Cole has allowed 14 runs in last three starts (16 2/3 innings for a 7.56 ERA) and looks to regain the form that saw him allow one run on three hits in a 6-1 rout of Washington on May 17. He's done well vs. the Nats in his short career, going 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in five starts (Pirates are 4-1). Strasburg saw his four-start winning streak stalled as he settled for a no-decision in Saturday's game against the New York Mets. He allowed three runs in that contest after tossing five straight outings (35 innings) in which he did not surrender an earned run. The Nats did win Saturday's game 4-3 and Washington has now won Strasburg's last six starts, making them 21-6 (plus-$1050) in all of his 2017 starts, the seventh-best moneyline mark among starters. Strasburg picked up the win versus Pittsburgh on May 16 after permitting three runs in six innings. He's 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA over seven career starts vs. Pittsburgh (Nats are 5-2). The pick:Who knows which players Baker may rest and as noted, Cole's had solid success against the Nats. Strasburg's been "lights out" recently and this marks his final 'tune-up' before the playoffs. Excellent spot to make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL -7 v. Duke | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 80 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Hurricanes have two scheduled saffected by Hurrican Irma and enter this Saturday game playing for just the third time this year, instead of the fifth. No. 14 Miami is currently sitting at 2-0, following a 41-13 win over Bethune-Cookman (9/2), a canceled game against Arkansas State (9/9) a postponed game with Florida State (9/16) and a 52-30 victory over Toledo. Miami will travel to Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham to face the 4-0 Duke Blue Devils, who are aiming for their first 5-0 start since the 1994 team opened 7-0. This marks the 15th meeting between the Hurricanes and Blue Devils since the series began in 1976, with Miami holding a 12-2 series advantage. Miami-Fl: The 'Canes have averaged 46.5 PPG (8th) on 571.0 YPG (6th) but of course, their two opponents have been Bethune-Cookman and Toledo. QB Brad Kaaya has moved on, replaced by Malik Rosier. He's completed 68.8% for 688 yards with six TDs and just one INT. RB Mark Walton has 353 rushing yards (204 on just 11 carries vs. Toledo) and is averaging a whopping 13.0 YPC with three TDs. Miami's D has yet to be tested but comes in allowing 21.5 PPG (47th). Duke: The Blue Devils have an offense capable of testing Miami's D. Duke comes in averaging 40.5 PPG (23rd) on 471.0 YPG (38th). QB Daniel Jones s completing 61.9% for 904 yards with five TDs and two INTs. He's also a running threat, gaining 141 yards with three TDs. The rushing attack averages 228.0 YPG (27th), led by the duo of Shaun Wilson (349 yards / 5.9 YPC) and Brittain Brown (35 yards / 6.7 YPC). Duke's defense owns impressive numbers, allowing 15.2 PPG (17th) on 271.8 YPG (16th), including just 75.5 YPG on the round (5th). The pick: Sure, Miami owns a 12-2 series lead but the Blue Devils will certainly remember the last time the Hurricanes visited Durham (in 2015), as Miami pulled out the 30-27 victory with a controversial last-gasp 91-yard kickoff return that featured eight laterals and four missed calls that resulted in suspensions for the ACC officiating crew. Last year, Miami topped Duke 40-21 in Miami Garden, Fl, behind 396 passing yards and four TD passes from Kaaya. Revenge is clearly with Duke but this is easily the Blue Devils' biggest test. Duke opened with three home games and had plenty against 1-3 North Carolina. Miami has a make-up game next Saturday with Florida State but a loss here makes that encounter significantly less important. Miami won't need any late-game heroics in this one. Make Miami an 8* play. |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL's longest rivalry resumes in Week 4's Thursday night game on CBS. The 1-2 Chicago Bears and 2-1 Green Bay Packers meet at Lambeau Field. Back on Sep. 25, 1960, the Chicago Bears, who were coached by the legendary George Halas, beat the Green Bay Packers, who were coached by the future legend Vince Lombardi, 17-14. That victory gave the Bears he Bears a commanding 50-26-6 edge in the series. However, after the Packers swept last year's two games, the series is knotted at 94-94-6. That means that with a victory tonight, the Packers could take the series lead for the first time since 1932! Chicago: Many are not sold on Chicago's current starting QB Mike Glennon. He is completing 67.3 percent of his passes but for a modest 615 yards (Chicago ranks 27th in passing yards), while tossing three TDs and three INTs, giving him a QB rating of only 79.8. However, in fairness, Chicago's wide receiver corps have been ravaged by injury, The running game has been a nice surprise, averaging 121.7 YPG (8th) on 5.0 YPC, led by Howard (197 yards on 4.4 YPC with 3 TDs) and Cohen (157 yards on 6.5 YPC). Chicago will need to find a way to score more, as it is averaging only 15.7 PPG (28th). The defense has been average, allowing 23.0 PPG (21st) on 321.7 YPG (12th). The strength is its rush D, holding opponents to 83.7 YPG to rank 8th. Green Bay: Rodgers is second in the league with 967 yards passing, exceeding 300 in each of the first three games. Although most teams would be just fine with their starting QB owning a passer rating of 93.1, it marks just the third time Rodgers' QB rating is below 100 in the 10 seasons since he took over as Green Bay's starter. Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game behind a banged-up offensive line, among the reasons he has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Running back Ty Montgomery, despite leading the team with 18 receptions, has rushed for only 124 yards in three games (3.0 YPC). Green Bay comes in averaging only 69.0 YPG on the ground, ranking 29th in the league. The defense has allowed a modest 296.7 YPG (8th-best) but also 22.3 PPG, just 18th-best. The pick: Rodgers has 17 TD passes versus just one interception in his last six meetings with Chicago and he's 15-4 against Chicago with a QB rating of 105.7. I'm not about to go against "the Pack," especially since Chicago comes in on a nine-game road losing streak (last road win was Week 16 of the 2015 season at Tampa Bay). However, the Bears have been quietly playing better than expected. Chicago lost to the defending NFC champion Falcons by just six points in Week 1 and are coming off a shocking home upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers. in OT last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Packers are still dealing with offensive line issues to the point they’re signing players off of other teams practice squads in hopes of patching things up. Both teams are off OT wins and playing on a short week. The play here is a 10* on the Under. |
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09-28-17 | Texas -6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 57 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Longhorns and Iowa State Cyclones meet Thursday night on ESPN at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. It's the Big-12 opener for both teams, although the 2-1 team is Iowa State, not Texas. The Cyclones are a 44-41 overtime loss to Iowa on Sep 9 away from a 3-0 start, opening the season with a 42-24 home victory over Northern Iowa and winning at Akron 41-14 on Sept. 16. The Longhorns began the 2017 season ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but opened it with a 51-41 home loss to Maryland, before following with a 56-0 home victory over woeful San Jose State. Texas' best performance of the season came in a hard-fought OT loss at USC (currently ranked 5th). Texas defeated Iowa State 27-6 last season in Austin and leads the all-time series 12-2, including going 5-1 in Ames Texas: Tom Herman was Iowa State's offensive coordinator from 2009-11 and helped guide the Cyclones to a pair of bowl games. He left there to be Urban Meyer's OC at Ohio State and then made a big 'splash' as Houston's head coach in 2015 and 2016, landing him the Texas job. Things have have not gone smoothly so far. It hasn't helped that sophomore QB Shane Buechele, who passed for 375 yards and two TDs and ran for another TD against Maryland, has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. However, he is expected to return here, although All-American left tackle Connor Williams (sprained MCL and PCL) is not around to block for him on an already thin OL. Sure, Texas ran for 406 yards against San Jose State but the Longhorns ran for only 98 yards (31 carries) against Maryland and had just 68 yards rushing on 35 attempts versus USC! The defense was awful vs. Maryland (allowed 51 points on 482 yards) but redeemed itself vs. USC. Which one shows up here? Iowa State: Junior QB Jacob Park is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 935 yards with eight TDs and just two INTs. Iowa State ranks ranks 14th in the NCAA in passing (311.7 YPG) and Park now owns four 300-yard passing games in his six career starts. He has a terrific target in senior WR Allen Lazard, a preseason All-American who has 19 receptions for 178 yards and three TDs and is the active NCAA career leader in consecutive games with a reception (38). The running game averages 152.0 YPG, just 82nd in the nation. The defense is at best, mediocre, allowing 27.3 PPG (78th) on 402.0 YPG (80th). The pick: Iowa State has an offense which can produce, as noted by 'ringing up' 38 points in regulation against an Iowa team, which almost upset Penn State last Saturday, holding the Nittany Lions to 21 points! Then again, the Nittany Lions did 'run all over' the Hawkeyes, gaining 579 yards. It's true that Iowa State is 7-1 ATS its last eight home games but with Buechele returning at QB, the Texas offense should be up to the task. Texas fans finally got a glimpse of a better future when Tom Herman almost pulled an upset at USC with backup QB Ehlinger. Here, they get to see "the Full Monty!" Make Texas a 10* play. |
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09-28-17 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-6 | Win | 105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees beat the Rays 6-1 last night (have won 12 of 18 meetings this year) and remained three games back of Boston in the AL East. With just four games remaining in the regular season, winning the American League East is unlikely but the 89-69 Yanks have clinched the No. 1 wild card spot and at 89-69 on the season, will (surely should) reach 90 wins for the first time since 2012. The Rays were eliminated from playoff contention on Tuesday and have dropped three in a row to assure they will finish under .500 for the fourth consecutive season (are currently 76-82). The pitching matchup: Jacob Faria (5-4 & 3.33 ERA) will get the nod for Tampa Bay and Sonny Gray (10-11 & 3.31 ERA) for New York. Faria returns to make his first start since August 16, after missing a month with an abdominal strain (Alex Cobb was scratched due to workload issues). Faria is a rookie who made 13 starts before his injury and allowed two runs over five innings in two relief appearances since being activated. However, Faria comes in win-less in his last four starts, going 0-3 (team was 1-4) with a 5.06 ERA. Faria had a no-decision in his lone appearance against the Yankees, allowing three runs on three hits over four innings back on July 30 (Rays won 5-3). Gray has pitched far better than his 4-6 record indicates since being acquired by the Yankees. His Sep. 12 outing against Tampa Bay is a good example, as he gave up two runs over eight innings in a 2-1 loss. Gray is 3-3 with a 3.71 ERA in 10 career starts against Tampa Bay (teams are 4-6). The pick; Gray owns a 3.12 ERA with the Yanks but recently, he's had some issues with "the long ball," allowing eight HRs in his last six starts. He'll take the mound on Thursday behind a team which has 11 wins in its last 12 home games and 19 wins in its past 26 overall since Aug. 16. The hot streak has assured them of being, at worst, the home team in next Tuesday's wild-card game against the Minnesota Twins. Meanwhile, the Rays are 1-8 at New York this season and clinched their 10th straight series loss at Yankee Stadium with Wednesday's loss. Faria hasn't seen much action since Aug. 30 and was struggling as a starter prior to going on the DL (see above). The play here is on the Over (10*s). |
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09-27-17 | Reds v. Brewers -160 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -160 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Milwaukee's four-run first inning was good enough for them to hold off the Reds 7-6 on Tuesday. The win left the Brewers 1 1/2 games behind the Rockies (with five to play) for the second NL wild card spot. Milwaukee is only one game ahead of St. Louis and plays its final three on the road against the Cardinals, so it cannot afford a misstep versus Cincinnati, in this, the team's final home series of the 2017 season. The 66-91 Reds will just be content with the fact that they will be able to stay out of the NL 'basement' (Phillies are 63-95 and Giants are 62-96). The pitching matchup: Homer Bailey (5-9 & 6.96 ERA) goes for the Reds and Brandon Woodruff (2-2 & 3.76 ERA) for the Brewers. Bailey is coming off another shaky outing on Thursday, lasting only four innings while giving up four runs on seven hits in a loss to St. Louis. Injuries have limited Bailey to 17 starts in 2017 and he owns a 1.75 WHIP and .318 BAA to go along with his bloated 6.96 ERA. He has faced the Brewers twice within the past seven weeks, winning at Milwaukee with five innings of two-run ball on Aug. 11 and settling for a no-decision on Sept. 4 after allowing three runs in six innings. He is 6-9 with a 4.87 ERA in 25 career starts vs. Milwaukee (Reds are 12-13). Woodruff allowed just four ERs in his first four major-league starts but has had some shaky moments over his last three, surrendering 13 ERs and 20 hits over 17 innings (6.88 ERA). Woodruff has never faced the Reds (just seven ML starts) and it's a concern that the Brewers are 3-0 in his road starts (2.00 ERA) but 0-4 in his home starts (5.16 ERA). The pick: Sure, Woodruff's home struggles are a concern but Bailey is a highly-beatable pitching foe. Milwaukee has virtually no margin of error and beating the Reds, who have dropped seven consecutive contests and are only 27-49 on the road in 2017, is a MUST. Make Milwaukee a 10* play. |
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09-27-17 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Bryce Harper finally made his return last night, after missing six weeks due to a knee injury. He played five innings in his first contest since Aug. 12, as the Nats lost 4-1 to the Phillies. According to manager Dusty Baker, Harper was "like a little kid on opening Little League day." Baker plans to incorporate Harper into game action as if it were spring training in hopes he's ready to go full throttle for the NLDS. BTW, Washington is locked into the second seed in the playoffs and will host the NL Central champion, either the Chicago Cubs or the Milwaukee Brewers, in the division series. The Nats and Phillies play the rubber match of this three-game series tonight, as the 63-95 Philadelphia, with just four games left in its season, has now guaranteed that it will avoid becoming the franchise's first 100-loss club since 1961. "First of all, when I said that 98, 99 or 100 losses didn't matter, I lied," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said after his team's win Tuesday.We gain feel his pain. The pitching matchup: Tanner Roark (13-10 & 4.41 ERA) goes for Washington and Mark Leiter Jr. (3-6 & 4.69 ERA) for Philly. Roark went 16-10 with a 2.83 ERA in 2016 but here in 2017, has seen his ERA rise more than 1 1/2 runs. However, he's still 13-10 (team is 16-13 in his 29 starts) and comes in having allowed three ERs or less in his last nine starts (team is 6-3). There is also the fact that he has dominated the Phillies since the start of the 2016 season, posting a 4-0 mark with a 1.87 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Leiter allowed one earned run in six innings versus the Los Angeles Dodgers last Thursday, in getting a no-decision in LA's 5-4 win. However, that effort still leaves him with a 7.17 ERA in four Sep. starts (he's 1-2 and the team 1-3). Leiter's lone win this month came at the expense of Washington, as he overcame a pair of HRs and four runs total in a 5-4 victory on Sep. 9, the rookie's lone start vs. the Nats. The pick: Roark's recent domination of the Phillies (see above for a reminder) plus the fact that Leiter has had confidence-boosting outings in his last two appearances (12 Ks and just two walks in 12 innings) gives me an 8* play on the Under. |
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09-26-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The Dodgers beat the Padres 9-3 last night, giving them their 100th win of the season. There was a time when there was talk that LA had a chance at 116 wins in 2017 but that all ended when the team lost 16 of 17 games. However, the Dodgers have reached the 100-win mark for the first time in 43 years! Two more wins and they will match the Los Angeles-era record set in 1962 and matched in 1974 of 102 wins. Los Angeles also now holds a 4 1/2-game lead over Washington for the best record in the National League and with just five games remaining, the team's magic number is down to two. The San Diego Padres have allowed 17 runs in back-to-back losses and have lost four of their last six contests. The pitching matchup: Dinelson Lamet (7-7 & 4.45 ERA) will be on the mound for San Diego and Alex Wood (15-3 & 2.71 ERA) for LA. Lamet has pitched reasonably well lately, allowing less than two runs in four of his last six outings but finds himself 0-3 and the team 0-6, in that span. Lamet struck out 10 and allowed one run on six hits in a loss on Sep. 1 in his lone career outing against the Dodgers (0-1 & 1.50 ERA). Wood was 10-0 with a 1.67 ERA prior to the All Star game but his performance has dropped since the break, going 5-3 with a 3.97 ERA. He is 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in three appearances (two starts / LA is 1-1) against the Padres this season and 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 11 career games (seven starts / teams are 3-4). The pick: The SD pitching staff has been battered for 17 runs on 22 hits the last two games and no reason to expect Lamet to 'stop the bleeding' (he allowed six hits, including three HRs, and six runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start). Wood's been pretty 'mortal' since the break and the Over is a 10* play. |
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09-26-17 | Tigers v. Royals -167 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Kansas City had its elimination number reduced to one with an 11-3 loss at the New York Yankees on Monday afternoon. The Royals are approaching the end of an era with franchise cornerstones Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar all set to reach free agency at the end of the season. "You're definitely aware of the possibility that could happen," Royals manager Ned Yost told reporters of all four players leaving after the season. "These guys have been going so hard this year and they're all beat down. You would really like to just give them a couple days off, but it's hard to do because our fans are going to want to see them." KC will finish the season with a six-game homestand, beginning tonight with the opener of a three-game series with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit enters on a seven-game losing streak (longest current one in MLB) and with an overall record of 62-94, a half-game better than the Phillies and Giants, as those three are in a race to the bottom for MLB's worst record in 2017. The Tigers are headed toward their worst record since the 2003 squad lost 119 games and Monday it was revealed that Miguel Cabrera is dealing with two herniated discs in his back and could miss the rest of the season. |
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09-26-17 | Nationals -145 v. Phillies | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Bryce Harper was expected to return last night from his knee injury (last played on Aug. 12) but flu-like symptoms kept the 2015 National League MVP out of the opener of the Nationals' three-game series in Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Nationals made it three straight wins last night with a 3-1 victory, as well as six wins in their last eight. However, the Dodgers won last night too (1st 100-win season since 1974) and LA's magic number to clinch the NL's best record is down to two. Washington is pretty much resigned to not having home field advantage if it meets LA in the NLCS. As for the Phillies, they've followed a 7-2 stretch by losing four of five and once again find themselves with MLB's worst record. Actually, they are tied with the Giants at 62-95! The pitching matchup: Gio Gonzalez (15-7 & 2.68 ERA) gets the nod for the Nats and Jake Thompson (2-2 & 4.14 ERA) for the Phils. Gonzalez improved to 7-2 in his last nine starts on Wednesday, allowing two runs on three hits in seven innings of a 7-3 victory at Atlanta. He's the "forgotten man" in a rotation featuring Scherzer and Starsburg but with one more win, he'll match the second-highest win total of his career, topped only by his 21-8 season back in 2012. He's seen plenty of the Phillies in his career (22 starts) and has posted an excellent 2.60 ERA. However, he's 10-6 and his teams are just 12-10 in all starts. Thompson made 10 starts last year for Philly and this marks his 11th appearance (eighth start) of 2017. However, he did turn in his second straight strong outing this past Wednesday, allowing one run on three hits in five innings of a no-decision versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his previous start, he had pitched 5 1/3 scoreless innings vs. Miami. The 23-year-old was shelled in his last encounter versus Washington, allowing seven runs on seven hits in five innings of an 11-10 loss on Sept. 8. Thompson is 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three career starts vs. the Nats (team is 0-3). The pick: As noted already, Gonzalez has compiled a 2.60 ERA over 22 starts (138 2/3 innings) against the Phillies but his record should be better. Case in point is two no-decisions in 2017, despite allowing a combined three ERs in 14 innings (1.93 ERA). This could be Gonzalez' last start of the regular season and I expect him to go out with a 'bang,' as the Nationals look for their 24th win in their last 31 games versus the Phillies. Make Washington an 8* |
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09-25-17 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Break up the A's! Oakland completed its second straight three-game sweep with Sunday's 8-1 home victory over the Texas, all but ending Rangers' wild-card hopes over the weekend. Oakland's three-game sweep pushed the Rangers 5 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the second American League wild card with seven contests remaining and now the A's will look to extend their winning streak to eight when they host the Seattle Mariners on Monday. The 72-83 A's will not be able to 'hurt' the Mariners in this three-game series, as 75-81 Seattle was eliminated from playoff contention with Sunday's 4-2 loss against Cleveland, the Mariners' their eighth loss in their last nine games. The pitching matchup: Felix Hernandez (5-5 & 4.57 ERA) will start for Seattle and Daniel Gossett (4-9 & 5.38 ERA) for Oakland. Hernandez makes just his third start since coming off another stint on the DL in mid-September and for the first time since late July, will face a team other than the Rangers. He started against Texas back on July 31, then spent about six weeks on the DL and has made his last two starts against the Rangers, as well. Hernandez is 24-9 with a 2.62 ERA over 45 careers starts against the A's (team is 31-14). Gossett, a 24-year-old rookie, is coming off a no-decision at Detroit on Tuesday, despite allowing six runs on nine hits and three walks over just 4 2/3 innings. However, let's note that he had allowed three runs or less in each of his previous four starts, yet went only 1-3 in that span. The pick: The A's are on a roll and playing without any pressure but the Mariners are also in that same position now (no pressure), after getting eliminated from the postseason. "King Felix's" 24 wins against the A's are his most victories versus any team. No reason to expect him not to be sharp here and this sets up as an Under (10* play). |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: University of Phoenix Stadium will be the site of Week 3's Monday Night Football game on ESPN, as the 1-1 Cowboys travel to meet the 1-1 Cardinals. Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott has been mired in controversy as he awaits word on the stay of his six-game suspension stemming from domestic-abuse allegations, plus his effort (or lack thereof) was questioned inside his own locker room after the team's humbling 42-17 loss last Sunday in Denver. As for Arizona, the Cards escaped with a three-point OT win at Indy last Sunday and will play a game in their own stadium for the first time since August 19(preseason Week 2). These teams opened the 2017 preseason schedule in Canton, with the Cowboys winning 20-18. Dallas: Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett wasn't pleased with Elliott's hustle or competitiveness when the RB showed zero-to-little interest in turning into a defensive player following two Dak Prescott interceptions, one of which was returned for a TD and one during which Elliott turned away from the play with his hand on his hips. Elliott had just rushing nine attempts against Denver (eight yards!) and that played a significant role in Dak Prescott attempting a career-high 50 passes last week. Only Aaron Rodgers (92) has more pass attempts after Week 2 than Prescott, who has 89. The Cowboys are averaging 245.5 YPG through the air and just 84.5 YPG rushing. That's a far cry from the excellent balance the team had in 2016, going 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS (226.9 YPG passing and 149.8 YPG rushing, which ranked second in the NFL). Arizona: The Cards are also worried about their running game. The Cardinals lost star RB David Johnson to a left wrist injury in Week 1, then Kerwynn Williams was the starter against the Colts last week. However, after averaging just 64.0 YPG rushing in the first two weeks (to rank 30th of 32 teams), it appears Bruce Arians will turn to veteran Chris Johnson against the Cowboys. Carson Palmer was 19-of-36 passing with 332 yards, one TD and one INT last week, after throwing three INTs with a 53.1 QB rating in the loss at Detroit. The pick: The Cowboys are dealing with some injuries but it was their pride and ego that were wounded the most during the rout at the hands of the Broncos. However, Dallas looked pretty darn good against the Giants and I'm not about to 'cry Uncle,' just yet. That's especially true here against the Cards, who look like a shell of the team that went all the way to the NFC championship game just two seasons ago (2015). The Cards are very fortunate to be 1-1 and I'm not convinced they are any better than the 7-8-1 team of 2016. Arizona heads into this game just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games, including the postseason. Make Dallas a 10* play.
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09-25-17 | Angels -145 v. White Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -145 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Angels have not been eliminated from wild card consideration just yet but the Angels are "on the brink." They open MLB's final week of the regular season clinging to the hope of reaching the postseason but they have their work cut out for them. LA snapped a six-game slide with Sunday's 7-5 win over Houston but a 5-11 stretch leaves them 4 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the second and final wild-card spot in the American League. The good news is that the Angels are in Chicago tonight for the opener of a four-game series and the White Sox are in "rebuilding mode" plus are just playing out the string at 63-92 (only the Tigers are worse in the AL at 62-94). |
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09-24-17 | Raiders v. Redskins UNDER 54 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 129 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Sunday night NFL action on NBC from FedEx Field, as the 2-0 Oakland Raiders visit the 1-1 Washington Redskins. The Raiders have quickly established that last year's 12-4 season was no fluke, beating the Titans 26-16 in Tennessee (impressive win) and then routing the Jets back in Oakland, 45-20. The Redskins were upset at home in Week 1 by the Eagles (30-17) but the team's 27-20 Week 2 win in LA over the Rams is starting to look better, after the Rams have scored 46 and 41 points in their other two games to open the 2017 season. Oakland: Derek Carr is completing 75.0 percent of his passes for 492 yards with five TDs and zero INTs (126.5 QB rating) five touchdowns and zero interceptions. WRs Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have combined for 258 receiving yards and four TDs while TE Jared Cook has nine receptions. Crabtree has 20 TD catches since the start of the 2015 season, tying him for fourth in the NFL in that span (pretty sweet FA pick-up!). The running game is chipping in 144.5 YPG (5th), while averaging a healthy 5.2 YPC. With the offense averaging 35.5 PPG (2nd-best), the defense is doing just fine in allowing 18.0 PPG (10th). Washington: QB Kirk Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards last season but is off to a slow start (only 419 passing yards) after losing his starting WRs in free agency. He is trying to establish a rapport with Terrelle Pryor (eight catches for just 97 yards without a TD catch) and it sure won't help if TE Jordan Reed plus starting RB Rob Kelley both miss (each is listed as questionable due to injuries). However, third-down back Chris Thompson and rookie Samaje Perine filled in nicely for a ground game that produced 229 yards against the Rams. Washington's defense ranks 26th in both points allowed (25.0 per) and total yards (350.0 per), although the team's rush D is allowing just 77.5 YPG. However, Carson Wentz riddled the Washington secondary for 307 yards in the air in Week 1 and stopping Carr may be a 'bridge too far.' The pick: The Raiders enter this contest on an impressive 11-2 ATS run over their last 13 road game (most as an underdog, though) plus QB Carr, who began his career with 10 consecutive defeats, comes in 14-3 over his last 17 starts! However, Washington head coach Jay Gruden has his own spread success lately as well, as he's 15-7 ATS his last 22 regular season games. Tough call on the side but this is Week 3's highest total (could climb even higher by game time) and like in Week 1 at Tennessee, expect an Under for the Raiders on the road. Make it an 8* play. |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks and the Tennessee Titans square off in Week 3 NFL action from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Both teams are 1-1 and the loser will not be a "happy camper." The Seahawks' offense has been "missing in action" after two weeks, averaging 10.5 PPG to rank 29th of 32 teams on 268.5 YPG (27th). Tennessee appeared to find its offense in the second half of last week's 37-16 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars but now will be severely tested by on of the NFL's best defenses these last five-plus years in Seattle. Seattle: The Seahawks were held without a TD in Week 1 at Green Bay and then were able to generate just 13 points (one TD) against a San Francisco defense which just allowed 41 point to the Rams on Thursday night. Russell Wilson passed for 198 yards and a TD on 23 of 39 passing, against the 49ers and rookie RB Chris Carson led Seattle’s ground game with 93 yards on 20 carries. As it has for some time now, Seattle's defense is off to a typically strong start, allowing 13.0 PPG (5th) on 309.0 YPG (13th). Tennessee: The Titans lost 26-16 at home to the Raiders in Week 1 but I think most are now aware that the Raiders are a quality team. The Titans found their offense in the second half of last week's win at Jacksonville, scoring 31 points. QB Mariota finished with 215 yards (one TD / one INT). RB Derrick Henry led with 92 yards rushing (on just 14 carries) with one TD. The Titans defense recorded two sacks, two interceptions and forced two fumbles, while holding the Jags to just 310 yards of total offense. The pick: I like the Titans quite a bit but Tennessee is 7-22-2 ATS in its last 31 home games (5-9-1 as a home favorite since 2013). The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams and Seattle is11-5-3 as a road underdog since 2011, including 2-0 in 2016. Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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09-24-17 | Texans v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 33-36 | Win | 100 | 121 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Texans and the New England Patriots square off in Week 3 NFL action from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, a rematch of the Patriots' 34-16 win in last season's Divisional Round of the playoffs when Houston was without injured star J.J. Watt. He is back and healthy (although he's sack-less) plus Houston is a banged-up football team. Both teams are 1-1, losing their openers before winning in Week 2. Houston won 13-9 at Cincinnati with Deshaun Watson making his first NFL start, while Brady rebounded from his awful Week 1 performance by ripping the Saints for 447 yards and three TDs on 30 of 39 passing in the Pats' 36-20 win. Houston: No one can say a 13-9 win over the struggling Bengals is a big deal. Deshaun Watson completed 15 of 24 passing for only 125 yards (no TDs or INTs) but led Houston in rushing with 67 yards, including a spectacular 49-yard TD scamper. RB Lamar Miller added 61 yards on the ground with his team-leading 18 carries, while DeAndre Hopkins was one of just four Texans’ receivers to catch a pass in the win, leading the team with seven receptions for 73 yards. The Texans, who finished No. 1 total defense last season (301.3 YPG) even without Watt for most of the year, recovered a fumble, made three sacks and held Cincy to just 295 yards and without a TD (three FGs). Then again, it was against the Bengals, not Brady and the Pats. New England: There was more than a little 'chatter' after Brady was held without a TD pass in New England's opener against the Chiefs (Brady had the league's lowest passer rating after that humbling 42-27 setback to Kansas City). However, the doubters have all been quieted, after his Week 2 effort at New Orleans (see above). The Pats head into this contest averaging 31.5 PPG (5th) on 341.5 YPG through the air (No. 1 in the NFL). There could be some concern with the defense though, as after allowing an NFL-low 15.6 PPG in 2016, on 326.4 YPG (6th), the Pats are allowing 31.0 PPG (30th) on 483.0 YPG (31st). The pick: The Patriots took it to the Texans last season, winning both meetings, including a 27-0 shutout win in Week 3 (Brady was still serving his suspension) and then that 34-16 win in the playoffs. Deshaun Watson had a solid first start but beating the sad-sack Bengals is one thing, beating the Pats of Brady and Belichick, is another. Rookie QBs are 5-15 (in the first or only meeting of a rookie season) against Belichick through his time in New England. The Foxboro numbers are even scarier, 0-8 with five TDs, 16 INTs and a 50.7 passer rating. Add to that, the fact that the Texans have never won in Foxboro (0-5) and are 1-8 overall against the Patriots, with six straight losses. I'd say lay it with the Pats but I'm troubled by New England's D so far and I like what I see from Watson. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-24-17 | Twins -162 v. Tigers | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
\The set-up: The Minnesota Twins came to Detroit Thursday for a four-game weekend series on a three-game slide and losses in five of their previous six games. However, the sad-sack Tigers were "just what the doctor ordered" as the Twins have won the first three games and early Sunday afternoon, go for a series sweep. After totaling just six runs while dropping three straight at the New York Yankees to begin the week (Mon-Wed.), Minnesota's bats have 'woken up' in Detroit, scoring 29 runs in taking the first three from the Tigers. In the process, the Twins have cut their magic number to five, for clinching the AL's second wild card spot. As for the 62-93 Tigers, they've lost six straight to drop into last place in the AL Central behind the 62-92 Chicago White Sox (62-92). The Tigers announced on Friday that manager Brad Ausmus would not be back next season as the rebuilding project continues (target date, 2025?). |
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09-24-17 | East Carolina +4.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The East Carolina Pirates have opened the season 0-3 and seek the team's first win of the new year Sunday against the 1-1 UConn Huskies at Rentschler Field in Storrs, Ct. ESPNU will televise this AAC matchup of teams each coming off 3-9 seasons. Both schools were scheduled to be off this weekend but the game was moved ahead in to accommodate UConn, which had its Sep. 9 game with USF postponed due to Hurricane Irma. These schools met last season in Greenville, with the Pirates rolling to a 41-3 victory.
UConn: The Huskies' offense is slightly better than ECU's, averaging 436.0 YPG (54th) but it is scoring only 22.5 PPG (105th), which is to say it' has underachieved. On the defensive side of the ball, UConn has allowed 536.5 YPG (125th) but a more modest 29.0 PPG (85th). QB Bryant Shirreffs is now a senior and is completing 69.2 percent of his passes but for only 351 yards (in two games) with three TDs and one interception. The UConn Huskies ground game is not all bad, averaging 183.5 yards YPG (54th). The pick: OK, the Pirates haven't won a road game since 2015 (0-7 SU & ATS) and the team enters this rare Sunday game on a 1-12 ATS run but UConn comes in on an 0-12 ATS run as a home favorite, last covering in that role in the team's 2012 season-opener over UMass. Make East Carolina |
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09-24-17 | Ravens -4 v. Jaguars | Top | 7-44 | Loss | -105 | 118 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL's first "London game" of the 2017 season features the 2-0 Baltimore Ravens taking on the 1-1 Jacksonville Jaguars "across the pond" at Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday morning. This will be Jacksonville's fifth straight year playing a game in London but it is a first for Baltimore. The Ravens played the entire preseason without starting QB Joe Flacco but went 4-0, anyway. As Baltimore had insisted, Flacco was ready for Week 1 and while he's been mediocre at best, the Ravens are off to a 2-0 start with a 20-0 win at Cincy and 24-10 home win over the Browns. The Jags opened their 2017 season by upsetting the Texans 29-7 in Houston but then severely disappointed their home crowd by losing 37-16 to the Titans, last Sunday in Jacksonville. Baltimore: Flacco has passed for just 338 yards (Ravens rank 31st of 32 teams in passing yards), as the team's deep threats (Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman) have been non-existent thus far, combining for three catches for just 20 yards receiving. However, the running game is averaging 146.5 YPG (3rd). Once again, Baltimore is relying on its defense, as the Ravens have allowed just 5.0 PPG (2nd) on 303.5 YPG (10th). The Baltimore D has four INTs in each of of its first two games, along with two recovered fumbles plus eight sacks! Jacksonville: Rookie RB Leonard Fournettehad 100 yards rushing in his debut but was held to just 40 yards by the Titans. The Jags are counting on him, as his success is paramount to Doug Marrone's offensive designs as the Jaguars try to rein in the turnover-plagued Bortles. The much-maligned Bortles is completing only 56.4% for 348 yards (Jags rank 28th in passing yards) with two TDs and two INTs (QB rating of 72.4). In the Jags' Week 1 win, Bortles attempted a career-low 21 passes. "However, we can find ways to win, if it's throwing it 50 times or five times, I'm more than willing to do that and fine with it," Bortles said after that game. "It's not, 'I'm mad because we're not throwing the ball enough.' It's not that. I couldn't care less. Anyone believe him? Think that anyone in the organization has much faith in Bortles? The pick: This is the 21st regular-season meeting between the teams and the Jaguars surprisingly lead the series, 11-9 (note: the Ravens and Jaguars were former division rivals in the AFC Central until 2001). Series history means little in this one but as we saw in Week 2, but the fact Bortles reverted to a familiar form with two ill-timed picks and general ineffectiveness in that lopsided loss to the Titans, does. Anyone expect him to deal effectively with this 'nasty' Baltimore D (see above to be reminded)? Not I. Make Baltimore an 8* play. |
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09-23-17 | Notre Dame -5 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 104 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Michigan State Spartans meet Saturday at Spartan Stadium, the site of one of CFB's many "Game of the Century" contests through the years, back on November 19, 1966 (ended in one of CFB's most famous ties, 10-10). Both schools opened the 2016 season ranked, Michigan State at No. 12 and Notre Dame at No. 10. However, the Spartans finished 3-9 and Notre Dame just 4-8. Less was expected from these legendary programs here in 2017. Notre Dame has opened 2-1, losing only 20-19 to Georgia, which is currently ranked 11th. Michigan State is 2-0, winning home games against MAC schools Bowling Green (35-10) and Western Michigan (28-14). The Spartans had a bye last weekend and this home game against Notre dame represents the school's third home game in a season in which the Spartans open with four consecutive home contests (Iowa visits East Lansing, next Saturday). Notre Dame: Much was expected of new starting QB Brandon Wimbush. His passing numbers are underwhelming after three games (50.5% for 491 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs) but he's run for 314 yards (6.4 YPC) and six TDs. ND's rushing game has been spectacular, averaging 330.7 YPG to rank 5th in the nation (RB Josh Adams leads the way with 443 yards on 7.9 YPC with two TDs). Defensively, Notre Dame is allowing 18.7 PPG. Michigan State: QB Brian Lewerke is completing 64.8 percent of his passes for 411 yards with four TDs and just one interception. Lewerke is also the team's leading rusher (150 yards on 8.8 YPC) for a running game which averages 255.5 YPG. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 12.0 PPG (12th) and the team's 203.5 YPG allowed ranks second in the entire nation. The question is, MSU's competition so far has not been the best. The pick: Michigan State ranks second among opponents in all-time victories (29) over Notre Dame, trailing only USC (37). With its stout defense, many feel like the Spartans as a home dog is the play. However, I differ. Notre Dame's rushing attack is dominant and its defense has looked way better than last year's unit, which allowed 27.8 PPG. Notre Dame has converted all of its red zone opportunities, tied with 19 other schools at 100%. However, no team has as had as many opportunities as The Irish, who are 19-for-19. Make Notre Dame a 10* play. |
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09-23-17 | Arkansas State v. SMU UNDER 73 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 103 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-1 Arkansas State Red Wolves of the Sun Belt will travel to Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas to take of the AAC's SMU Mustangs, who have opened their season 2-1. The Red Wolves opened with a tightly-contested 43-36 loss in Lincoln against Nebraska, before seeing their game with Miami-Fla. canceled to due to Hurricane Irma. ASU picked up its first win of 2017 by routing Arkansas-Pine Bluff at home, 48-3 last Saturday. SMU opened its season with home wins over SF Austin (58-14) and North Texas (54-32) but then could not slow down then-No. 20 TCU last Saturday in Fort Worth, losing 56-36. SMU gets Arkansas St. this Saturday and then UConn next Saturday (both at home), so the Mustangs have to be 'smelling' a 4-1 start, not bad for a program that was just 5-7 last year, plus 2-10 and 1-11 the previous two seasons. Arkansas State: QB Justice Hansen is completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 751 yards with eight TDs and just two interceptions. It's only two games but ASU's 385.5 YPG through the air ranks 8th-best in the nation. The defense had its problems with Nebraska (43 points allowed on 463 yards) but then the three points allowed vs. Ark-Pine Bluff, makes the defensive stat sheet look somewhat better. SMU: QB Ben Hicks is completing just 48.4 percent of his passes but he's thrown for 729 yards with eight TDs and three interceptions. Hicks and Rafe Peavey have combined for nine touchdown passes this season and an average of 318.3 YPG passing (20th-best). Freeman (151 yards) and Jones (150 yards) lead a rushing attack which averages 155.3 YPG. All told, it has translated into 49.3 PPG or 6th-best in the nation. SMU couldn't stop TCU at all (56 points on 619 yards) and will enter this game with its defense allowing 34.0 PPG (105th). The pick: OK, so is the Over the play? I've had great success so far in 2017 by "playing under" on more than a few of these games with extremely high totals. That's the angle once again here, as I make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-23-17 | Louisiana Tech v. South Carolina -8 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: A pair of 2-1 teams square off on Saturday at Columbia, South Carolina, as Louisiana Tech takes on South Carolina. The Bulldogs routed Nothwestern State 52-24 to open the season but then found themselves on the wrong side of a 57-21 score at home vs. Mississippi State in their second game (just ask LSU if Miss. St. is any good). South Carolina opened 2-0 in 2017 but will need to find a way to win without its top playmaker, something it couldn't do last Saturday. WR Deebo Samuel had five TDs in the team's first two games (both wins) and then had a 68-yard TD catch on the first play from scrimmage in last week's game vs. Kentucky. However, he suffered a broken left leg and was lost for the season, as South Carolina went on to lose 23-13. La. Tech: Head coach Skip Holtz has led the Bulldogs to three consecutive nine-win seasons, each ending in a bowl victory. This year's starting QB is J'Mar Smith, who's thrown for 722 yards, including three plays of 53 yards or longer, but has completed barely half of his passes (51.5%). Smith had 306 yards passing in the win over Western Ky, completing 22 of 39 (one TD and one INT). La. Tech averages 32.0 PPG but allows 34.3 per, ranking 108th in the nation. South Carolina: QB Jake Bentley threw for 304 yards and two TDs against Kentucky but he also was intercepted twice. The Gamecocks have averaged only 85.7 YPG on the ground (121st) and now that Samuels is out, South Carolina will need to find a way to perk up its offense. "I think we've got some capable guys," head coach Will Muschamp told the media on how he might replace Samuel. "Shi Smith is a freshman we are trying to train up. Bryan Edwards has been a dependable guy. Next man up has to be our mentality." Muschamp can rely on his solid defense, which has allowed 21.3 PPG. The pick: After getting smoked by Miss. State 57-21, La. Tech is eager to show it can compete with an SEC opponent. However, if only wishing could make it so. La. Tech is just 2-9 SU in non-conference away games under Holtz. Not enough points here to take the Bulldogs (a C-USA team) against an SEC opponent. Make South Carolina an 8* play. |
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09-23-17 | Angels v. Astros -157 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros won 3-0 last night, handing the Angels their fifth straight loss, as well as the team's 10th in its last 14 games. Time is running out on LA, as the Angels have fallen 3 1/2 games back of the Twins for the AL's final wild card spot (tied with the Rangers) and have just nine games remaining (Twins have only eight). Houston has won seven of its last eight contests and is six victories shy of the second 100-win campaign in franchise history. More importantly, with Cleveland's loss at Seattle on Friday, the Astros inched within 1 1/2 games of the Indians for the AL's best record (top record would have home field edge in possible ALCS showdown). |
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09-23-17 | NC State v. Florida State -11 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Florida State Seminoles opened their 2017 season against preseason No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta. FSU not only lost a game back on Sep. 2, it also lost its starting QB, Deondre Francois to a season-ending knee injury. To add insult to injury, the Seminoles have not played since that game, as the effects of Hurricane Irma have forced the Seminoles to cancel/postpone games against ULM (9/9) and Miami-Fl (9/16). This marks CFB's fourth full weekend and FSU will finally be playing its second game of the 2017 season, when it hosts 2-1 NC State. The Wolfpack opened with a 35-28 home to loss to South Carolina but then beat Marshall 37-20 and Furman 49-16. FSU won 24-20 at NC State last season, giving them eight wins over the last 10 meetings (FSU leads the series 25-11 all-time). NC State: QB Ryan Finley had a solid season in 2016 for NC State, throwing for 3,059 yards with 18 TDs and just eight INTs. He's completing 75.6% for 987 yards (6 TDs / 0 INTs) after three games in 2017, as the Wolfpack are averaging 334.7 YPG through the air to rank 13th in the nation. The NC State defense was solid last season (allowed 22.8 PPG) and comes into this game allowing 23.7 PPG. Florida State: The Seminoles' offense couldn't dent Alabama's defense in their lone 2017 game, scoring just seven points on 250 total yards (just 40 yards rushing). However, the defense played extremely well, holding The Tide to just 269 yards. Florida State will turn the offense over to freshman James Blackman, who will be the first true freshman to start at QB for the Seminoles since 1985. The good news is, he's had some extra time to study the playbook and practice with the first team during the layoff. “He has presence and poise,” head coach Jimbo Fisher said. “I’ve always said the No. 1 thing (quarterbacks) have to have, barring anything, I always look at it very early on, I say the No. 1 thing is presence. … They just have presence. When they talk, there’s a natural command to what they do and how they carry themselves. And I think James does that." The pick: Still fuming from a 24-7 season-opening loss to Alabama on Sep. 2, then seeing its next two games get washed out because of Hurricane Irma, Florida State enters Saturday's contest having not played a game in three weeks. Florida State's 21-day stretch between games is tied for the third-longest layoff between regular-season games in the same season in program history. My bet says the NC State is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Lay it with FSU and make them an 8* play. |
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09-22-17 | Rockies -160 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies' chances of catching the Arizona Diamondbacks are becoming slimmer and slimmer (D'backs' magic number to clinch the No. 1 wild card spot is down to three!) and the much bigger concern for the Rockies now is, holding onto the No. 2 wild card spot. Colorado's bats have gone silent and the team's hold on the second National League wild-card spot is clearly in jeopardy. The Rockies have been blanked in back-to-back games and have dropped four in a row as both Milwaukee and St. Louis threaten to overtake them. Colorado's 3-0 loss last night in San Diego leaves it one game ahead of the Brewers and 1 1/2 in front of the Cardinals with nine remaining. This four-game series continues tonight at Petco Park. About the only thing San Diego has to celebrate these days is that the team has won four of its last five games and surpassed last year's victory total (68) with Thursday's win. The Padres were 68-94 in 2016 (23 games back of the division-winning Dodgers) but with nine games left in tehe 2017 season, sit at 69-94, although they are 28 games back of the Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Jon Gray (8-4 & 3.75 ERA) takes the mound for Colorado and Jordan Lyles (1-3 & 7.35 ERA) for San Diego. Gray struck out seven and gave up two hits in five scoreless innings against San Diego in his last start before a 90-minute rain delay knocked him out of the contest. The effort continued his pattern of success against the Padres, as he owns a 2.50 in nine career starts against them, including a franchise-record 16-strikeout performance in a four-hit shutout back on Sept. 17, 2016. Gray made three early April appearances but then went on the DL and didn't return until June 30. He's been a solid starter since and heads into this game having allowed three ERs or less in 11 straight starts. Lyles began the year with the Rockies, making 33 relief appearances (0-2 with a 6.94 ERA), before being released. He's made three starts for the Padres, going 1-1 with an 8.78 ERA (SD is 2-1). That includes an outing in which his former teammates torched him for seven runs and eight hits over four innings this past Saturday in Colorado's 16-0 win over San Diego. Lyles is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in five career appearances (three starts / teams are 0-3) against Colorado. The pick. If Lyles being on the mound can't 'wake up' the Colorado bats, then the Rockies are in deep S*#&T! As for Gray, while he's a modest 3-2 in his career vs. San Diego in nine starts (team is only 3-6), he does own a very solid 2.50 ERA in those starts. Make Colorado an 8* play. |
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09-22-17 | Virginia v. Boise State OVER 51.5 | Top | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 80 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Friday night CFB on ESPN comes from Albertsons Stadium (home of the famous "Blue Turf'), as the 2-1 Boise State Broncos host the 2-1 Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavs have opened the 2017 season with three consecutive home games, beating William & Mary 28-10, losing 34-17 to Indiana and then topping UConn, 38-18. The Broncos own home wins over Troy (24-13) and New Mexico (28-14), sandwiched around a 47-44 triple-OT loss at Washington State. The schools have only met once before, with Boise State crushing the Cavs 56-14 at Charlottesville in 2015. Virginia was just 4-8 taht season but fell to 2-10 last year, in Bronco Mendenhall's first season at Virginia.
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09-22-17 | Angels v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 105 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
The setup: The Astros lost at home to the sad-sack White Sox last night and it's looking more and more as if Cleveland will wind up with the AL's best overall record (Indians lead the Astros by 2 1/2 games). Houston begins a three-game home series with the LA Angels tonight, a team looking to snap a four-game losing streak. The Angels find themselves in a funk, having lost nine of their last 13, putting them 2 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the American League's second wild-card spot (along with the Texas Rangers). The pitching matchup: Garrett Richards (0-2 & 2.00 ERA) will take the mound for LA in an effort to stop the bleeding but his opponent will be the red-hot Justin Verlander (13-8 & 3.50 ERA). The injury-plagued Richards has made just four starts in 2017 (he's 2-0 and the team 2-2) and 10 total over the past two seasons. He's currently attempting to regain his form after a biceps injury. Richards has lost back-to-back starts, pitching five innings in each outing. He is 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 13 career appearances (10 starts / team is 6-4) against the Astros, including a 1-0 loss opposite Verlander in which he gave up one run and four hits over five innings on Sep. 12. Verlander has been everything (and more) for Houston. He has struck out 26 and walked just three in 21 innings since joining Houston's rotation, going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three outings since being acquired from Detroit. "I think my mechanics and everything have been pretty good," the 34-year-old Verlander told reporters. "My last few starts are really to try to go out there and maintain that feel and just attack and help get us a win." Verlander is a modest 7-8 with a 3.55 ERA in 18 career starts (teams are 8-10) vs the Angels, which includes 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts versus the Angels this year. The pick: Houston's starting rotation has allowed just nine ERs on 26 hits and 13 walks with 42 strikeouts over the past 42 innings, good for a 1.93 ERA during that stretch. Clearly, Houston's starters are trending in the right direction at the most opportune time with the postseason upcoming and Verlander is leading the way. However, note that Richards has been quite effective in his four 2017 starts. Yes, he hasn't gone longer than five innings in any one of them but he's allowed just 13 hits in 18 innings with an 18-4 KW ratio, 0.89 WHIP and a .194 BAA. Like when these two pitchers met back on Sep 12 (a 1-0 final), the Under is a 10* play. |
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09-21-17 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mariners won the final three games of a four-game set in Texas against the Rangers from Sep. 12-14. However, Seattle has lost all five games since then, while Texas has followed a five-game skid, which began with those three straight home setbacks to Seattle, with three consecutive wins. While the Mariners now sit four games behind the Twins with 10 to play for the AL's final wild card spot, the Rangers have climbed to within 2 1/2 games of Minnesota with 11 contests remaining in their season. The pitching matchup: Cole Hamels (10-4 & 3.96 ERA) starts for Texas and James Paxton (12-4 & 2.98 ERA) for Seattle. Hamels has posted only one victory over his last five starts (team is 2-3) but did pitch well enough to win this past Saturday, when he allowed two runs on four hits over 7 1/3 innings of a 2-0 road loss to the LA Angels. Hamels improved to 6-3 lifetime against Seattle on Sep, 11, when he gave up three runs and tied a season high with seven strikeouts in six innings (teams are 8-5 in his 13 career starts against the Mariners but he owns a 5.02 ERA!). Paxton returned from a pectoral strain this past Friday but worked only 1 1/3 innings in a 5-2 loss at Houston. He gave up three runs on four hits and two walks as he reached his limit of 50 pitches. It was his first defeat since June 27 against Philadelphia. He hasn't surrendered more than three ERs since June 16 at Texas, a span of 11 starts (Mariners are 8-3). However, Paxton lost that June 16 outing vs. the Rangers, falling to 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA in nine career starts against the Rangers (teams are 4-5) with that setback, although he allowed two hits over eight scoreless innings in a win versus the club back on April 15. The pick: It's likely neither team will make the postseason but in this one, but Paxton has allowed no more than three ERs in 11 straight starts) and Hamels is Hamels. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 56 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The 0-2 San Francisco 49ers will host the 1-1 LA Rams Thursday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Thursday. The Rams routed the Colts 46-9 in Week 1 but then lost 27-20 to Washington in Week 2. The team will play its first road game of the season here, traveling on a short week, although the trip to Santa Clara is not much of a travel issue. As for the 49ers, they are 0-2 after a 23-3 home loss to the Panthers in Week 1 and a 12-9 loss to the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 2. The Rams are coming off a 4-12 season and the 49ers off a 2-14 one, so it's fair to say both teams have this one 'circled' as a rare "winning opportunity." LA Rams: Jared Goff struggled when he played in 2016, after being the NFL's No. 1 overall pick in April. Goff completed just 54.6% in his seven games with five TDs, seven INTs and five lost fumbles (he was 0-5 as a starter). He had a breakout game in Week 1 by completing 21 of 29 for 306 yards with one TD, no INTs and a 117.9 QB rating. However, he was more average against Washington, going 15 of 25 for 224 yards with one TD, one INT and an 86.1 rating. RB Todd Gurley had just 41 yards in Week 1 in the win but looked better with 88 yards (5.5 YPC) in the loss, plus he's caught eight passes for 104 yards. Goff's improved play certainly makes the Ram's a much superior offensive team, averaging 33.0 PPG (LA averaged NFL lows of 14.0 PPG and 262.7 YPG in 2016). The Rams D has allowed 18.0 PPG (11th) on 305.3 YPG (13th) through two games, after allowing 24.6 PPG on 337.0 YPG in 2016. San Francisco: The 49ers have a new head coach (Kyle Shanahan) and a new starting QB (Brian Hoyer) and so far, the offense has been pathetic. Hoyer has completed 62.9% and thrown for only 292 yards without a a TD pass (two INTs) and currently owns a 60.7 QB rating. RB Carlos Hyde has 169 yards rushing on 7.0 YPC but the team has averaged 6.0 PPG, amazingly ranking 31st of 32 teams (talk about a lack of scoring!). SF does rank dead-last (32nd) in total yards, at 232.5 YPG. Considering the team's woeful offensive performance, the defense has played well. San Francisco ranks 10th in both points allowed (17.5 per) on 299.5 YPG. The pick: I noted at the top that both teams have to feel like this is a winnable one. However, the 49ers have to realize just how important winning here, is. The 49ers play their next three games on the road, return home to play the Cowboys and then travel cross-country to play the Eagles. Lose here and an 0-8 start looks pretty feasible. San Francisco just dominated the Rams at this venue last year, winning 28-0 and then upset the Rams later in the Coliseum, 22-21. Make San Francisco an 8* play. |
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09-21-17 | Temple v. South Florida -20.5 | Top | 7-43 | Win | 100 | 56 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Temple Owls will visit Tampa and Raymond James Stadium Thursday night on ESPN to take on the 3-0 South Florida Bulls, who are currently ranked No. 21 in the AP poll. The Bulls will have a short week for the second game in a row, having played Illinois last Friday night, when they pulled away to an easy 47-23 victory, with 680 yards of total offense. Temple's new head coach Geoff Collins knows what his team is in for, as on Monday he said, "They have tremendous athletes across the board -- a big, physical offensive line and a dynamic quarterback who can hurt you with his arm and hurt you with his legs. They're a complete offense." Temple: The Owls are coming off back-to-back 10-4 seasons but reaching double digit wins this year may be a stretch. Temple opened with the 2017 season with a 49-16 loss at Notre Dame, before beating Villanova and UMass (schools better-known for their basketball programs) by only a combined 11 points! QB Logan Marchi has taken over for the graduated Walker and has looked pretty good. He's thrown for 767 yards with five TDs and zero INTs. However, the running game, which averaged just over 175 YPG in 2016, has averaged a woeful 94.3 YPG (117th) on 2.9 YPC after three games (two coming against cupcakes 'Nova and UMass). Forget the team's defensive numbers against Villanova and U Mass and concentrate on the 49 points and 606 yards the Owls allowed at Notre Dame and one has to believe Temple is in deep trouble in this contest. USF: Quinton Flowers has yet to 'explode' after three games (678 passing yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 243 yards rushing and 2 TDs) but the key is he's got USF's offense clicking on all cylinders. USF averages 40.0 PPG on 522.3 YPG (15th), including 281.3 YPG rushing (13th). RBs Tice (256 yards & 4 TDs) and Johnson (215 yards) give the Bulls quite a solid duo to complement Flowers' rushing ability (note: he rushed for 1,530 yards in 2016 on 7.7 YPC and scored 18 TDs!). The Bulls' D has been more than "good enough," allowing 20.7 PPG (48th) on 323.3 YPG (42nd). The pick: The Bulls enter this game having scored 30-plus points in 20 straight games and just how will Temple's D (see Notre Dame stats above!) be able to keep USF in check on its home field? Making matters worse for Temple is that the Owls beat USF last season in Philly, 46-30. As the saying goes, "revenge is a dish best served cold." USF is 8-2-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2015. Make the Bulls a 10* play. |
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09-21-17 | Royals v. Blue Jays -157 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -157 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Kansas City used an eight-run second inning on its way to a 15-5 win at Toronto. The Royals had failed to score more than four runs in eight straight games and entered last night's game on a three-game slide, before busting loose against the Blue Jays. The victory allowed them to close within 3 1/2 games of the American League's second wild card with 11 games left to play The 71-81 Blue Jays (71-81) would need to win their final 10 games to avoid the team's first losing record since 2013, as the two teams meet in the rubber match of this three-game series tonight at Rogers Centre. The pitching matchup: Jason Vargas (16-10 & 4.19 ERA) takes the mound for KC and J.A. Happ (9-10 & 3.76 ERA) for Toronto. Vargas has won his last two starts but he went just five innings in each and hasn't come close to resembling the pitcher who was 12-3 on June 30. Vargas is 4-7 since the beginning of July (team is 6-7) and his ERA has almost doubled, from 2.22 on June 30 to 4.19 heading into tonight's contest. Vargas is 3-3 with a 4.96 ERA against the Blue Jays after beating them with seven innings of two-run ball on June 24 over nine career starts (teams are 5-4). Happ began the season by losing his first four decisions and also spent time on the DL. His 20-4 season of 2016 seems 'miles' away but he's won each of his last three starts to move closer to a sixth season with double-digit victories. In one start this season against the Royals (June 23), he allowed four hits, no walks and one run in 6 2/3 innings and did not factor in the decision as Kansas City won 5-4. In five career starts against the Royals, he is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA (teams are 2-3). The pick: KC is fighting for a playoff spot while the Blue Jays, after back-to-back ALCS appearances, will be sitting home this October. However, Vargas has struggled for most of the last three months, while Happ, who struggled early in the season with elbow inflammation, has a 2.25 ERA over his last four starts and has won three in a row. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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09-21-17 | Indians -141 v. Angels | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Twins have lost three straight games but the Angels have failed to take advantage of Minnesota's struggles by losing three in a row, themselves. LA, which has lost eight of 12, has seen its American League wild-card hopes grow dimmer, as the Angels get set to host the the Cleveland Indians on Thursday for the finale of this three-game series. The Angels still trail the Twins for the second wild-card spot by 1 1/2 games and now they have just 11 games remaining. As for the Indians, they have now won four in a row and 26 of their last 27. Cleveland goes for the three-game road sweep having last lost a road game back on August 20 (that's 13 straight road wins!). The pitching matchup: Danny Salazar (5-6, 4.52 ERA) recently returned from an elbow injury and is starting for Cleveland for the first time since Sep. 5, after two relief outings. Taking the mound for LA is rookie Parker Bridwell (8-2 & 3.71 ERA), who is MLB's biggest moneymaker among starters (Angels are 15-2, plus-$1644 in his 17 starts!). Salazar retired only two batters in his last start against the Chicago White Sox (9/5), giving up four runs. Cleveland wants to extend his pitch count to see if he is a possible postseason starter. Salazar is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA in four career starts against the Angels (Indians are 2-2). Bridwell scattered three hits over six scoreless innings to defeat Texas 2-0 in his last outing, ending a stretch of five straight win-less outings (note: Angels went 4-1 in that stretch). The rookie had allowed 15 runs on 20 hits in 12 innings (11.25 ERA) over a three-start span before his turnaround against effort against Rangers. Bridwell will be facing the Indians for the first time. The pick: No doubt that Bridwell has had a remarkable rookie season but in all honesty, he's also been fortunate, with the Angels' run production bailing him out of more than just a few, "less-than-stellar" outings. In going 4-8 over their last 12 games, the Angels have averaged just 3.3 RPG. That won't cut it against the Indians. Make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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09-20-17 | Rangers v. Mariners -148 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -148 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Rangers passed the Seattle Mariners in the American League wild-card standings on Tuesday, posting a 3-1 victory in the series opener to move one-half game ahead of the Mariners and climb within 3 1/2 of Minnesota for the second spot with 12 left on its schedule. As for Seattle, since capturing the final three contests of a four-game set at Texas from Sep. 11-14 the Mariners are win-less. Seattle trails Minnesota by four games with 11 remaining, as its losing streak reached four in row. The pitching matchup: Andrew Cashner (9-10 & 3.40 ERA) starts for Texas and Felix Hernandez (5-4 & 4.19 ERA) for Seattle. Cashner looks to avenge a horrific outing against Seattle last Thursday, when he had his five-start unbeaten stretch halted after being battered for five runs on six hits and five walks over just 4 1/3 innings. Cashner was able to earn just two wins during his unbeaten streak (Rangers were 3-2), which has been the problem for him in 2017. He had allowed fewer than three ERs in seven of his previous eight starts prior to the loss to the Mariners, yet was only 4-3 (team was 5-3). Cashner is 1-4 with a 3.98 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts / teams are 2-5) versus Seattle, including a 1-2 record and 4.16 ERA in four starts this season (Texas is 1-3). Hernandez will be making his second start since his latest stint on the disabled list and third in a row against the Rangers. Both of those outings took place in Texas, including him allowing one run on three hits in only 3 2/3 innings on Thursday while throwing only 54 pitches. Hernandez is 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA in three starts versus the Rangers this year (Seattle is 3-0!) but owns a 19-23 record and 3.92 ERA in 53 career starts (Mariners are 24-29). The pick: Cashner iis having the best season of his career but remains just 9-10 with the Rangers going 12-13 in all of his starts (plus-$101). Seattle needs Hernandez to pitch like a 'King" and that's my bet (Mariners are 3-0 in his starts vs. the Rangers this year). Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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09-20-17 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 13-7 | Win | 105 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks are attempting to nail down the NL's No. 1 wild card but so far, it's been a "lost series" in San Diego with the D'backs losing the first two of this three-game series against the Padres. Arizona owns 4 1/2-game lead over Colorado for the first wild-card spot in the National League but tonight, looks to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Padres, who own a three-game winning streak but just a 68-83 record. |
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09-20-17 | Nationals -147 v. Braves | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats won the opener of this three-game series 4-2 in Atlanta last night. The victory gives the Nats a 91-59 record and with the Dodgers losing 6-2 at Philly, Washington climbed to within 4 1/2 games of LA for the National League's best overall record. The loss guaranteed Atlanta (67-82) would have a losing record for the fourth consecutive season, as the Braves opened a stretch of 14 games in 13 days to close the 2017 season by losing for the fourth time in their last five games (note: Atlanta is 22-37 since sitting at .500 back on July 16 with a 45-45 record!).
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09-19-17 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies are trying to hold off the Milwaukee Brewers, who are two games behind, and St. Louis Cardinals (4 1/2 back) for the NL's second wild card. The Rockies will begin their final road trip of the campaign with a visit to the MLB-worst San Francisco Giants on Tuesday to start a two-game series, then head to San Diego for four games. Colorado finishes at home against first the Marlins and then the Dodgers. For Colorado, that wild card spot is there for the taking, as the Giants, Padres and Marlins all own losing records! As for the 58-93 Giants, they are staring down their first 100-loss season since 1985 and only the second in franchise history, with their next eight games against postseason hopeful Colorado (owns the 3rd-best moneyline in MLB), before taking on the Dodgers (owners of MLB's best record) and then the Diamondbacks (own the 2nd-best moneyline mark in MLB). |
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09-19-17 | Dodgers -157 v. Phillies | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -157 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers hit three solo HRs at Philly last night and had Clayton Kershaw on the mound, a sure recipe for a win. However, Kershaw gave up the first grand slam of his career to Aaron Altherr and the Phillies eked out a 4-3 victory. Los Angeles fell for the second straight time following a four-game winning streak (which had been preceded by the team losing 16 of 17), as its magic number clinch to win the NL West remained at four, while LA's lead over idle Washington for the best record in the National League dropped to 5 1/2 games. Philadelphia won for the fifth time in seven contests and by going 15-14 its last 29, the 59-91 Phillies have climbed over the 58-93 Giants, leaving San Francisco with MLB's worst record. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (9-12 & 4.08 ERA overall in 2016) takes the mound for LA and Aaron Nola (11-10 & 3.60 ERA). Darvish opened 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his first three starts with LA (Dodgers were 3-0) but then lost three in a row, allowing 13 ERs on 19 hits over 12 1/3 innings for a 9.49 ERA. However, he regained the form he had upon his arrival to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, yielding only three singles and striking out five across seven scoreless innings in a 4-1 win at San Francisco on Wednesday. Darvish will try to improve on his 6-4 record and 2.59 ERA on the road this season as he faces Philadelphia for the first time in his career. Nola turned in one of the most dominant performances of his career in a win Wednesday against Miami, permitting only one run on a solo HR among the four hits he gave up in seven innings while striking out a career-high 11. Pitching for a team with a win percentage of. 393 is no easy task but Nola is 11-10 on the season and the Phillies are 12-13 in his 25 starts, giving him a win percentage of .480 (team is 47-78, .376 when someone else starts!). Like Darvish, Nola is facing tonight's opponent for the first time in his career, as well. The pick: Monday's 4-3 win marked the first time this season that the Pjhillies have beaten the Dodgers (were swept in Los Angeles back in late April) and Philadelphia has only won three of its last 12 meetings with LA. The Dodgers have not lost a series in Philadelphia since 2011, which was the last season in which the Phillies made the playoffs. Make LA an 8* play. |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-0 Detroit Lions visit MetLife Stadium and the 0-1 New York Giants for MNF on ESPN. Matthew Stafford completed 70.7 percent of his passes for 292 yards with four TDs and just one INT in Detroit's 35-23 Week 1 home win over Arizona. As for the Giants, they look for a bounce back performance after losing 19-3 at the Dallas Cowboys on SNF in Week 1. Manning completed 76.3 percent of his passes for 220 yards but did not lead the Giants into the end zone, while tossing one INT and getting sacked three times. Detroit: The passing game graded out as an "A" in Week 1, with Golden Tate reeling in 10 catches for 107 yards, rookie Kenny Golladay grabbing four catches and making a favorable impression with a pair of fourth-quarter TD plus RB Theo Riddick also had six catches with a TD reception,. However, the rushing attack ran for just 82 yards (3.0 YPC) leaving head coach Jim Caldwell to say, "It needs work. We just got to keep working at it and (it's) not where we want it yet." The Lions' D was fine against the Cards, holding them to 308 yards (but 24 FDs) and 23 points, while forcing four TOs (three INTs). NY Giants: The offense was mostly revamped in the off-season with the additions of WR Brandon Marshall, TEs Rhett Ellison and Evan Engram, plus the promotion of Paul Perkins to starting RB. The mainstays are QB Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham, Jr. OBJ sat out Week 1 and New York's offense couldn't get out of its own way. I noted Eli's numbers above and as a team, the Giants totaled a modest 233 yards on 13 FDs (4 of 12 on third-downs). Perkins ran for 16 yards (seven carries), as the team had just 35 yards rushing (2.9 YPC). The Giants' D, considering it got no relief from its offense, did well to hold the Cowboys to 19 points. The pick: Obviously, an OBJ return would be huge for the Giants but his status is iffy, as would be his contributions if he did play. The Lions didn't pull away from the Cards in Week 1 until the fourth quarter and I'm still not ready to trust that defense. I did allow 24 FDs but was 'saved' by forcing four TOs. However, the Lions' pass D allowed opposing QBs to complete a historic 72.7 percent of their pass attempts in 2016, while the defensehad just 14 takeaways, tying them for 28th (with the Jets). As for that Giants' D, it did its best last week vs. Dallas and let's not forget how good it was last year, when the Giants allowed only 17.8 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL) plus went from allowing an NFL-high 420.3 YPG in 2015, to allowing 339.7 YPG in 2016. Detroit is a different team away from its dome (12-20 SU the last four seasons) and I'm "all over" the Giants as a 10* play. |
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09-18-17 | Twins v. Yankees -149 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins will open an 11-game road trip with a three-game visit to Yankee Stadium when the take on the NY Yankees on Monday night. This could be a preview of the American League's wild card matchup. The Yankees currently own the No. 1 wild card spot with a four-game lead over the Twins. Minnesota has a two-game lead over the Angels for that No. 2 spot plus five other teams lurk withing 5 1/2 games of the Twins. The pitching matchup: Minnesota ace Ervin Santana (15-7 & 3.35 ERA) takes the mound for the Twins, opposed by Jaime Garcia (5-9 & 4.35 ERA) of the Yankees. Santana got off to a blazing start in 2017, going 7-2 with a 1.80 ERA through his first 10 outings (Twins were 7-3) but then cooled off. However, he's back pitching well again and enters unbeaten in his last 10 starts, recording four victories in that span with the Twins going 7-3. Santana has not pitched well in his career vs. New York, going 6-9 against the Yankees with a poor 5.78 ERA in 19 career starts (teams are 7-12).. Garcia opened the season with Atlanta but notched the victory in his lone start with Minnesota before being shipped to New York, where he has gone 0-2 with a 4.60 ERA in six outings (NYY are 3-3). However, he's given up just one earned run in each of his last two outings, although to fair, he's only been able to work a total of 9 2/3 innings due to pitch counts. He pitched six scoreless innings in his only career start versus the Twins, settling for a no-decision (his team lost the game). The pick: The Twins are 7-4 in their last 11 games and will play 10 of their final 13 games on the road, where they are 39-32. The Yankees, who are 12-5 in their last 17 games, will play 10 of their remaining 13 games at home, where they are 43-28. Santana may be the better pitcher here in 2017 but the Bronx has not been good to the veteran in his career. He is 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA in three starts at the current Yankee Stadium plus in the old Yankee Stadium, he was 0-4 with a 7.06 ERA in five starts. Make the Yankees a 10* play. |
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Packers opened the 2017 season with a solid 17-9 home win over the Seattle Seahawks, while the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons won their season opener 23-17 at Chicago. The two teams meet Sunday night in Atlanta, for the Falcons' first regular season game in their new home, the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Packers most recent visit to Atlanta is one the team would rather forget. Green Bay entered last season's NFC conference championship game on an eight-game winning streak but was never in it against Atlanta, falling behind by 24 points at halftime in a 44-21 blowout. "If you're thinking about last year and talking about last year, you're just wasting time and energy," Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said. The Falcons will be looking to beat Green Bay for the third time in just 11 months, as they squeezed out a 33-32 victory at home last October on a last-minute TD pass from Matt Ryan Green Bay: The Packers may have scored just 17 points against the Seahawks in Week 1 but Aaron Rodgers threw for 311 yards (had one TD pass and one INT). RB Ty Montgomery had 93 total yards and a touchdown, while WRs Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson combined for 16 receptions and a score last week. Defensively, the Packers held Seattle to just 225 yards of total offense on 12 FDs (3 for 12 on 3rd down), while getting three sacks and forcing a fumble. Green Bay's offense helped the defense by dominating the T.O.P. battle. 39:13-to-20:47. Atlanta: While the Packers earned an impressive victory against a fellow NFC powerhouse last week, the Falcons needed Brooks Reed's fourth-and-goal sack to hold off the rebuilding Bears, 23-17. However, Falcons head coach Dan Quinn was pleased with the ending, perhaps in no small part because of how his team couldn't hold off the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. "I wasn't disappointed that we had to go all the way to the end," he said. "Those are kind of the finishes that as a coach you hope you can put your team into some of those spots and have some resiliency there at the end. It took all day, for sure." Ryan connected on an 88-yard scoring strike to TE Austin Hooper in the fourth quarter and finished with 321 yards passing in the season opener. However, The backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman was a big disppointment, combined for only 53 yards rushing on 20 carries in Week 1. The pick: Ryan has put up huge numbers over the past three matchups against the Packers, passing for 1,055 yards with 11 TDs against just one interception (passed for seven TDs and no picks in LY’s pair of wins over GB). WR Julio Jones torched Green Bay in the NFC title game with nine catches for 180 yards and two scores plus had an 11-catch, 259-yard monster performance against the Packers back in 2014. The again. don't expect Rodgers to take a backseat in this matchup. After all, he has a QB rating of 117.0 in seven matchups against Atlanta, throwing for 29 TD passes against two picks. These two teams have combined for at least 65 points in each of the last three meetings (including LY's NFC title game), so why should it be any different here? Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-17-17 | Dodgers v. Nationals -150 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Is LA's awful stretch of 16 losses in 17 games finally behind them? It sure looked that way Saturday afternoon, as the Dodgers beat the Nats for the second straight tome at Nationals Park, 3-2. It was LA's fourth straight win and Cody Bellinger homered in the triumph to lift his season total to 38, moving him into a tie with Wally Berger (1930) and Frank Robinson (1956) for the most HRs by a NL rookie. The victory makes Los Angeles 96-52, as it lowering its magic number to clinch the NL West to five while increasing its lead over 89-59 Washington (89-59) to seven games for the best record in the National League. The pitching matchup: Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-7 & 3.59 ERA) gets the nod for LA and Stephen Strasburg (13-4 & 2.64 ERA) for Washington. Ryu will take the mound after 10 full days of rest following a no-decision Sep. 5 against Arizona in which he allowed one run on three hits but walked five and struck out seven across six innings. Ryu missed all of 2015 and made just one appearance in 2016. However, he's returned in 2017 to make 22 appearances, including 21 starts. Four of his last six outings have come on the road, where he is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA since the All-Star break. Ryu was charged with the loss versus the Nationals on June 5 after surrendering four runs in seven innings of his first career start against Washington. Strasburg continued his run of recent dominance en route to his third win in as many starts Sunday against Philadelphia, yielding only two singles and one walk while striking 10 over eight innings. He has not been scored upon in a franchise-record 34 consecutive innings. Strasburg took the loss versus the Dodgers on June 7 despite permitting only two runs (one earned) in six frames, falling to 1-2 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts (Nats are 1-5) against them all-time. The pick: Strasburg is 3-1 with a 0.51 ERA with a 41-4 KW ratio since returning from the disabled list on August 19 with a right elbow nerve impingement and as noted, takes a |
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09-17-17 | Jets +14 v. Raiders | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Jets head to Oakland in Week 2 to take on the Raiders at the Oakland Coliseum. Not much is expected from the Jets in 2017 and that's just what we all saw in Week 1. New York gained just 214 yards (11 FDs) in Buffalo, while the Bills gained 408 yards. The Jets allowed the Bills to rush for 190 yards (4.5 YPC) and were able to only run for 38 yards themselves (2.5 YPC). Maybe the Jest were lucky to lose by just nine points. In contrast, the Raiders impressed in their 26-16 Week 1 at Tennessee. QB Derek Carr, who signed a five-year, $125 million extension with the team this off-season, has clearly recovered nicely from the broken fibula is suffered in Week 16 last season. He completed 22 of 32 passes against the Titans for 262 yards with two TDs and no interceptions. Marshawn Lynch ran for 76 yards against the Titans in his first game following a one-year retirement. NY Jets: Looking for positives from Week 1, former Raider Josh McCown completed 26-of-39 passes for 187 yards and ran for the Jets' lone TD versus the Bills. His top target was Jermaine Kearse, who had seven catches for 59 yards in his debut with the club. However, RBs Matt Forte and Bilal Powell MUST do better. The good news is that they are very capable and have a history of being effective players. Maybe New York's best performances in Week 1 came from its kickers. Chandler Catanzaro converted a pair of long FGs (48 & 52 yards) plus had three kickoffs go for touchbacks. Punter Lachlan Edwards averaged 43.7 yards on six punts. Oakland: The Raiders' 12-4 record in 2016 ended 13 consecutive non-winning and playoff-less seasons for Oakland (going back to the 2002 season, when the Raiders lost to the Bucs in the Super Bowl). Expectations were high coming into 2017 and the team's Week 1 performance at Tennessee may have cured any doubters. Carr was excellent (see above), completing passes to eight different receivers, with Michael Crabtree making a team-high six catches for 83 yards. Speaking of special teams play, Oakland just may have found a suitable replacement for Sebastian Janikowski, who has been placed on injured reserve with a back injury. Giorgio Tavecchio, who was 9-for-11 on FG attempts during the preseason, converted all four of his attempts against Tennessee, including a pair from 52 yards out. His performance earned him the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week honor. The pick: Oakland's Derek Carr has a high-quality WR duo in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree plus a good TE in Jared Cook. Lynch may have turned back the clock and will at worst, vastly improve the rushing game in 2017. As for Josh McCown, he no longer owns a legit deep threat, as the Jets could arguably own the worst offense in the NFL after discarding their top play-makers prior to the start of this season. All that said, aren't we asking an awful lot from this Oakland team? There was just one double-digit favorite in Week 1 (Steelers closed minus-10 at the Browns) and here in Week 2, Oakland (about a two-TD favorite over the Jets), is the lone double-digit favorite of Week 2. Note that the Steelers barely eked out a three-point win over the Browns in Week 1 and the next-highest favorite in Week 1 was the Pats. In case you have forgotten, the Pats were routed 42-27 at home vs. the Chiefs, as a nine-point choice. Take the huge points and make the Jets a 10* play. |
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09-17-17 | Patriots v. Saints OVER 55.5 | Top | 36-20 | Win | 100 | 95 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints meet Sunday at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, with both teams looking for their first win of 2017. The defending Super Bowl champions have had 10 days to stew over their shocking 42-27 season-opening home loss to the KC Chiefs on the season's first Thursday night game, while the Saints look to get things straightened on defense, as well as on offense, as the team was uncharacteristically impotent on the offensive side of the ball a 29-19 Monday night road loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The New Patriots have not started a season 0-2 since 2001, while the Saints hope to avoid losing the first two games of the season for the fourth consecutive season!
New England: Can you believe that Brady Brady is ranked dead-last in the league with a completion percentage of 44. , after going 16 of 26 without a TD pass in the Pats' season opener? What's more, he has glaring issues at WR with Julian Edelman out for the year, Malcolm Mitchell on injured reserve and Danny Amendola is in the NFL's concussion protocol. Also, Brady's security blanket, TE Rob Gronkowski, looked rusty in the loss to the Chiefs, catching just two passes for 33 yards. New RB Mike Gillislee did rush for three TDs in Week 1 but the Patriots were also stuffed on three short-yardage situations. Then there is the New England defense which allowed 537 yards (!!!) to the Chiefs plus the 42 points KC scored were the most allowed since coach Bill Belichick arrived in New England! New Orleans: The Saints are also looking for answers in Week 2. "A sense of urgency has been created," acknowledged Drew Brees. "It's very important. It's our home opener, and we want to get back on track." New Orleans struggled to get un-tracked offensively at Minnesota but the team is a different animal when playing on the fast track of the Superdome. Brees finished with 291 yards and a TD plus Adrian Peterson tied for the team high with 18 yards on six carries in his debut with New Orleans. Coming off a 2016 season in which Minnesota was among the league's worst with averages of 375.4 YPG and 28.4 PPG allowed, the Saints surrendered 470 total yards and 29 points to the Vikings. The pick: New England is a remarkable 42-6 SU following a loss since 2004 and plays its first road game of 2017 here, after going a perfect 8-0 on the road last season. As noted above, Brees acknowledged "a sense of urgency." Here's why. Another slow start could prove devastating to the Saints. New Orleans has failed to make the playoffs in each of the past three seasons. The Saints started 0-2 in 2014, 0-3 in 2015 and 0-3 last season. In fact, since owning an 11-5 record back on Dec. 29, 2013, the Saints have gone 1,358 days without a winning record. Can the Saints win on Sunday? New England's 'bounce-back' history says no but Brees is averaging 357.7 YPG passing in his last 15 home games. On the other side, anyone NOT think Brady will have something to prove off that embarrassment against the Chiefs? Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-17-17 | Eagles +6 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 51 m | Show |
The set up: The Philadelphia Eagles will venture into Arrowhead Stadium for a Week 2 game with the Kansas City Chiefs. It's a 'family reunion' of sorts, as new Philly head coach Doug Pederson played for Andy Reid (current KC head coach) in Green Bay and Philadelphia, before joining his coaching staffs with the Eagles and Chiefs. Pederson was Reid’s offensive coordinator in Kansas City from 2013-15, so he has a great understanding of the team's offense. The Eagles won 30-17 at Washington last Sunday but no team's Week 1 win was more impressive than KC's season-opening win 42-27 at New England, as nine-point underdogs. Philadelphia: QB Carson Wentz had a strong opener, going 26-of-39 for 307 yards with two TDs and an interception. However, the Eagles will need more from the running game, as LeGarrette Blount finished with only 46 yards on 14 carries against Washington (Eagles ran for only 58 yards as a team on 2.4 YPC!). A juiced-up pass rush harried Washington's Kirk Cousins all game, accounting for four sacks. The defense forced four turnovers in Week 1, including one fumble recovery which was returned 20 yards for a TD. Kansas City: Andy Reid went against type in allowing Alex Smith to 'fire deep' against the Pats and it paid huge dividends. Smith completed 28 of 35 for 368 yards (4 TDs / 0 INTs / 148.6 QB rating) plus rookie RB Karrem Hunt ran for 148 yards and a TD (8.7 YPC) and caught five passes, including a 78-yard TD. WR Hill had seven catches for 133 yards, including a 75-yard TD. Then there was the KC defense which held Brady without a TD pass on 36 attempts (just 16 completions). The pick: Would it be possible for the Chiefs to match their Week 1 performance? I think not and that improved Philly defense (especially its ability to pressure the QB), may make it very difficult (if not impossible) for Alex Smith to repeat his Week 1 performance. Philly QB Wentz is playing with an upgraded roster on both sides of the ball and let's note that this second-year player is now a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS in September games. Can you say upset? Make the Eagles an 8* play. |
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09-16-17 | San Jose State v. Utah OVER 60 | Top | 16-54 | Win | 100 | 80 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-2 San Jose State Spartans will visit Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City to take on the 2-0 Utah Utes this Saturday night. The Utes are not ranked in the AP poll but do check in at No. 24 in the coaches' poll. The Spartans own a 43-13 home win over Cal-Poly but have lost 42-22 at home to USF (season-opener) and last Saturday lost 56-0 at Texas. The Utes opened with a 37-16 home win over North Dakota and then improved to 2-0 on the season by defeating BYU 19-13 at Provo this past Saturday. Utah jumped out to a 19-6 lead with 2:35 left in the 3rd quarter and were able to survive a late BYU comeback in the 4th. San Jose State: The Spartans opened the season with a first-year head coach in Brent Brennan and have played three QBs so far with red-shirt freshman Montel Aaron making his first start in the loss to Texas. The Spartans are averaging only 18.7 PPG (110th) on 346.7 YPG (99th). The defense was gashed for 623 total yards by Texas, including 406 yards and six TDs on the ground. San Jose St. is allowing 37.0 PPG (115th) on 468.0 YPG (112th). Utah: Tyler Huntley is the team's new QB and he's a true dual-threat. He has completed 73.5 percent of his passes for 527 yards (one TD / one INT) and is also he team’s leading rusher with 159 yards on 37 attempts (three rushing TDs). Huntley's top target is Oregon transfer Darren Carrington, who has 17 catches for 256 yards and a TD. The Utes are averaging a modest 28.0 PPG (87th) on offense but the defense has been excellent, allowing 14.5 PPG (30th) on 235.5 YPG (17th). The pick: Utah holds a 7-1 lead in the series between these former WAC rivals, including a 34-16 road win last season in San Jose. The Utes are 23-1 in non-conference games since joining the Pac-12 in 2011. Utah hasn't had a breakout offensive effort yet but I expect one here vs. San Jose State, which was routed by Texas last week (see above) and as noted above, has allowed 37.0 PPG (115th) on 468.0 YPG (112th). The Over is an 8* play. |
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09-16-17 | Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks won 3-2 last night at San Francisco in the first of a three-game series against the against the Giants. The Diamondbacks won without the services of a scorching J.D. Martinez (10 HRs over his last 11 games), who was a late scratch because of a stiff neck. Fellow outfielder A.J. Pollock picked up the slack with a two-run double in the seventh inning that rallied Arizona from behind (note: Martinez will be re-evaluated before Saturday's game). The loss was just another nail in the coffin in what's become a 'nightmare' season for the Giants. San Francisco has 'caught' the Phillies for MLB's worst record (SF is now 57-92) and the Giants have owned MLB's worst moneyline mark for quite some time now (minus-$3960, which is about $1000 worse than any other team!). The pitching matchup: Two outstanding pitchers square off, although only one is having an excellent season. That would be Zach Greinke (16-6 & 2.99 ERA), who goes for Arizona. The Giants will send Madison Bumgarner (3-8 & 3.55 ERA). Greinke can gain a share of the major-league lead in victories, as he seeks his 17th win. That would tie Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and the Brewers' Zach Davies for the lead. Greinke has been dominanat over his last four outings, posting a 2.03 ERA and 0.86 WHIP (he's 2-0 and the team 3-1). He has won eight of his past 10 decisions. More good news comes Arizona's way in that he's had all sorts of success vs. the Giants, going 10-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 16 career starts (teams are 13-3). Bumgarner has lost three straight starts and allowed 11 runs in as many innings over his last two starts, during an uncharacteristically poor stretch. Bumgarner is 0-2 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts against Arizona this season (Giants are 0-3) and 9-9 in 28 starts (team is 15-13) against the D'backs in his career. The pick: Tough to get involved with the Giants these days but note that Bumgarner owns an excellent 2.61 ERA in 28 career starts vs. the D'backs (that's quite a sample size!). As for Greinke, I noted his terrific career numbers against the Giants above and will add here that he owns a 1.66 ERA in six career outings at AT&T Park. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-16-17 | Clemson v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 47-21 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney claims he loves playing in big games and his team's showdown against Louisville on Saturday night certainly qualifies. ABC will be on hand as current AP No. 3 Clemson (2-0) and the defending national champs, travel to Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. to take on 2-0 Louisville, which is currently ranked 14th in the AP poll. Eventual Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson almost single-handedly lifted Louisville to victory in last year's contest at Clemson, totaling 457 yards and accounting for four TDs in a game that wasn't decided until Louisville came up one yard shy of a first down at the Clemson 3-yard line in the final seconds (Clemson won 42-36). Clemson has won all three previous meetings between the two schools, although each has been decided by six points or less. Clemson: New Tiger QB Kelly Bryant has passed early tests (68.6% completions with one TD & one INT plus 136 yards rushing on 5.2 YPC with three TDs). However, after routing Kent State 56-3 (665 total yards), the Tigers gained just 281 yards in their 14-6 win over Auburn. So far, the key has been Clemson's defense. The Tigers' defensive front, anchored by All-America candidates Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence at tackle, plus Austin Bryant and Clelin Ferrell at end, may be the best in the country. Clemson had 11 sacks, one shy of the school record against Auburn last Saturday. The Tigers rank second nationally in total defense (118.5 YPG) and sacks and are in the top-10 in seven defensive categories. Clemson has not allowed a TD this season and held Auburn to 117 total yards (13 FDs), including 15 second-half yards! Amazingly, Clemson's allowing 4.5 PPG but that ranks just THIRD (?). Louisville: Jackson's performance last season in “Death Valley” set up his "Heisman-push" (295 YP / 162 YR / 3 total TDs). Only Archie Griffin has won two Heismans (back-to-back in 1974 and 1975) but Jackson is not about to relinquish his Heisman without a fight after 525 yards of total offense at North Carolina. He enters this game with 771 passing yards and a 5-0 ratio plus 239 rushing yards with three TDs after just two games. Jackson has became only the second player in FBS history to have at least 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing in consecutive games. The pick: Clemson has won 10 consecutive games on opponents’ home fields but Louisville is still smarting from last year's loss in Death Valley. There is no doubt that Clemson's defense is special but it couldn't contain Jackson at home last year (see above). How can it do better here at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville? "We've had three really good battles with them – had our opportunities and have come up short – so this is something that is really important to our players,” Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino told reporters. “First of all, we should have confidence that we're there and that we can play, but it is up to us to win the game.”I agree and will make Louisville my 10* CFB Game of the Year! |
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09-16-17 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky UNDER 61.5 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 77 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs will travel to L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Ky. to take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers this Saturday night. Both teams have opened 1-1. La. Tech opened with a 52-24 home win over Northwestern St. but was no match for Mississippi State last Saturday at home, losing 57-21. La. Tech took a quick 9-0 lead early in the 1st quarter but couldn’t fight back after 36 unanswered points by Mississippi State gave them a 36-9 lead with :41 seconds left in the 2nd quarter. Western Kentucky opened with a 31-17 win over Eastern Ky but then lost 20-7 at Illinois this past Saturday, as a six-point road favorite. The schools have met just seven times with La.Tech leading 4-3. However, after beating Western Ky 55-52 at home during the 2016 regular season, the Bulldogs lost 58-44 at Western Ky in the C-USA championship game.La. Tech: The Bulldogs averaged 44.3 PPG last season but Skip Holtz' team may struggle some on offense this year. La. Tech is averaging 36.5 PPG (47th) but QB J’Mar Smith has completed only 48.3% of his passes for 2 TD sand an INT while averaging 208.0 passing YPG (note: last year's starter Ryan Higgins passed for 4,617 yards with a 41-8 ratio). The team's running game is averaging a respectable 186.5 YPG to rank 56th. Defense is a problem though, as the Bulldogs have allowed 40.5 PPG (121st).Western Ky: The Hilltoppers are coming off seasons of averaging 44.4, 44.3 and 45.5 PPG. However, just four offensive starters are back. Yes, one of them his QB Mike White, who threw for 4,363 yards with a 37-7 ratio, but after two games, he's got just one TD pass in 74 attempts, while averaging a modest 251.0 YPG. Forget those 40-plus PPG averages of the previous three seasons, as the Hilltoppers are averaging only 19.0 PPG (109th) here in 2017. The good news for Western Ky is the defense is a allowing just 18.5 PPG (47th). The pick: At the moment, it sure looks as if the Hilltoppers miss head coach Jeff Brohm (he's now at Purdue), as Mike White and the offense is not "hitting on all cylinders" for new head coach Mike Sanford. Then again, the Western Ky defense looks very good. La. Tech is scoring (36.5 PPG) but allows even more (40.5 PPG). These two schools were the preseason favorites to return to the C-USA title game but at this stage of the season, both teams have plenty of kinks to work. The two meetings last year in which the finals were 55-52 and 58-44 keep this total WAY higher than it should be. Make the Under an 8* play.
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09-16-17 | Tennessee +5.5 v. Florida | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: SEC East rivals Tennessee and Florida square off in Gainesville at "The Swamp" on Saturday. The Vols come in 2-0 and ranked No. 23 in the latest AP poll, while the 0-1 Gators are still in the top-25, at No. 24. The Volunteers made a remarkable comeback vs. Ga. Tech on Labor Day evening in Atlanta, rallying from a two-TD deficit in the 4th quarter to send the game to OT. The Vols would win 42-41, when they squashed a Ga. Tech two-point try in the second OT. Win No. 2 came much easier, beating FCS Indiana State 42-7. The Gators canceled last Saturday's home game with Northern Colorado due to Hurricane Irma and could have really used the work. Florida opened its season with a marquee matchup against Michigan on September 2 in Arlington (Jerry's House) and were just awful. Michigan beat Florida 33-17 but the final is not the half of it! Both Florida TDs were scored on interceptions returned for a TD, meaning the Florida offense put just three points on the board. The Gators were held to 192 totals yards, gaining just 13 FDs (went 2 of 13 on 3rd down conversion attempts). The Volunteers come to Gainesville on Saturday after winning 38-28 at home last season, a victory which snapped an 11-game losing streak in the series. Tennessee: The Vols are 2-0 but there is plenty of room for improvement, head coach Butch Jones said. "We have a lot of work to do with this football team, and that starts with our overall physicality," Jones said. "I didn't think we played to the level of physicality that's up to our standard and expectations." Joshua Dobbs in now in the NFL and it looks as Jr. Quinten Dormady is emerging as the Vols' full-time QB over Jarrett Guarantano. Dormady enters the week with a passer rating of 143.7 to go along with 415 passing yards, four TDs and an interception. The Volunteers are averaging 42.0 PPG (27th) thanks not only to the offense, but to strong work on special teams and defense. Freshman Ty Chandler returned the opening kickoff 91 yards for a touchdown last weekend, marking the team’s ninth punt- or kickoff-return TD since 2015. Florida: QB Feleipe Franks will start against Tennessee after an up-and-down debut against Michigan. The red-shirt freshman completed 5 of 9 passes for 75 yards and showed some scrambling ability before being pulled after losing a fumble while going for a first down in the third quarter. If he can't do the job, though, coach Jim McElwain could turn to Notre Dame graduate transfer Malik Zaire (9 of 17 for 106 yards in the opener as a replacement for Franks) or even part-time 2016 starter Luke Del Rio, possibly in a two-minute situation. Regardless of which QB takes the most snaps, he could sure use more help from the running game, which gained only 11 yards on 27 carries in the opening loss to Michigan. The pick: Sure, Florida is well-rested and anxious to redeem itself off that Michigan 'nightmare.' The Gators also have revenge from last year's 10-pont loss at Tennessee, which ended an 11-game winning streak in the series for Florida. However, the Gators are totally unsettled at QB and off the Michigan game, have little or no running game. Also, last year's win and cover by the home team (Tennessee), snapped a 6-0-1 ATS streak by the road team in this bitter rivalry. I want any points I can get. Make the Vols an 8* play. |
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09-16-17 | Dodgers -145 v. Nationals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers opened a three-game series in Washington against the Nationals last night and came away with an impressive 7-0 win. Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig and Corey Seager all homered in the first two innings, while Alex Wood delivered a dominant pitching performance (three hits over six scoreless innings with eight Ks). Los Angeles has now won three in a row, after dropping 16 of 17 from Aug. 26-Sep. 11. The Nationals were able to muster only four hits against Wood and two relievers, while falling for the third time in four outings. The offense has been lacking for the NL East champions over that stretch, as the Nats have totaled just seven runs while getting shut out twice. The defeat also left Washington six games back of the Dodgers for the NL's best record. The pitching matchup: Rich Hill (9-8 & 3.67 ERA) starts for LA and A.J. Cole (2-4 & 4.30 ERA) for Washington. Hill needs to get things turned around, as he has lost four starts in a row, beginning with his near-perfect game back on August 23 at Pittsburgh. He was obviously brilliant in that outing vs. the Prates but he owns a 6.14 ERA over his last three outings. Hill last faced Washington twice in the 2016 NL Divisional Series and permitted five runs across seven innings over two starts. He's 1-2 with a 5.11 ERA all-time vs. the Nats (teams are 3-2). Cole will be making his first start for the Nationals since getting the win at Miami back on Sep. 4, having pitched twice in relief over that span. He worked two scoreless innings against Philadelphia last Saturday but was roughed up for three runs on five hits across two innings versus Atlanta on Tuesday. This is Cole's first career start against the Dodgers. The pick: Hill has looked pretty shaky these last three starts and note that he enters this contest having given up at least one HR in eight consecutive outings. However, one could have said the same of Wood, before last night. The Dodgers look as if they have 'righted the ship' and today face Cole, who has spent most of this year at Triple-A Syracuse He has pitched in just eight games with Washington, including six starts, going 2-4. He has given up six HRs in 37 2/3 innings at the major league level this year. The Dodgers will post their most wins in a season since going 98-64 in 1977 with one more win. That win comes right here! Make the Dodgers an 8* play. |
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09-16-17 | Baylor +14.5 v. Duke | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: I wonder if Matt Rhule would like to reconsider taking the Baylor job and leaving Temple? Baylor has not only opened 0-2, the Bears have lost outright as a 33 1/2-point favorite against Liberty and then as a 12 1/2-point favorite against UT-San Antonio, both at home! Here, the Bears will take an eight-game regular season losing streak to Durham, North Carolina to face Duke. The Blue Devils took FCS foe North Carolina Central 'to the woodshed' 60-7 in their season-opener and then dismantled Northwestern 41-17 last week (out-gained the Wildcats 538-to191). This marks Duke's third straight home game and it's Homecoming! Baylor: The Bears won 10-plus games in four of five seasons from 2011 through 2015 and opened 2016 at 6-0. Baylor entered Game 7 of the season at No. 8 when it lost 35-34 at Texas. The Bears ended the regular season on a six-game slide but then upset Boise State 31-12 in the Cactus Bowl, as about a TD underdog. Matt Ruhle was terrific at Temple, going 10-4 in 2015 and 10-3 last year, before taking the Baylor job prior to Temple losing its bowl game. Baylor is trying to recover from the sexual assault scandal that rocked the university and resulted in the firing of former head coach Art Briles in May 2016. Rhule has completely junked the Art Briles offense and Arizona transfer QB Anu Solomon has struggled, completing 43.6% in the team's first two games. Maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel, as Baylor's pass defense yielded only 155 yards passing to UT San Antonio, after surrendering an incredible 447 yards in the opener. Duke: The Blue Devils entered last season off four consecutive bowl appearances but stumbled to a 4-8 season. However, head coach David Cutcliffe's 10th season in Durham is off to a exciting start. Dual-threat QB Daniel Jones has completed 68.6% for 518 yards (4 TDs / 1 INT) and rushed for 127 yards (6.4 YPC) and three more TDs. Duke is averaging 50.5 PPG (10th) on 531.0 YPG (18th) plus a defense which allowed 28.2 PPG in 2016, has allowed 12.0 PPG (19th) on 174.5 YPG (7th). The pick: Heading into this game, there can be no doubt that we have two teams heading in opposite directions. Baylor has more issues than most people realized, while Duke is simply cruising. The Blue Devils are a splendid 18-2 in their last 20 regular season non-conference games (the most successful streak in program history) but it's just hard to get may head around the fact that Duke, DUKE, is a two-TD favorite over Baylor. Rhule announced during the week that Arizona graduate transfer Solomon will be replaced by sophomore Zach Smith against Duke. Smith started four games last season and completed 116-of-196 passes for 1,526 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. Take the points and make Baylor an 8* play. |
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09-15-17 | Illinois v. South Florida OVER 55.5 | Top | 23-47 | Win | 100 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Illinois and South Florida are both 2-0 to open the 2017 season, although it's the lesser-known school from Tampa which is the ranked team, at No. 21 in the latest AP poll. Illinois is off a 3-9 season in Lovie Smith's first year as head coach and the Fighting Illini haven't had a winning season since their 20-14 bowl win over UCLA in 2011 allowed them to finish 7-6. Meanwhile, Willie Taggert rejuvenated the USF program, going 8-5 in 2015 and 11-2 in 2016, including an exciting 46-39 OT win over South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl. Taggert used his success to land the Oregon job but Charlie Strong brings solid credentials to the program, despite his lack of success at Texas. USF had its game last week at Connecticut cancelled, due to complications with Hurricane Irma. Illinois: Ilinois goes after its third straight victory to open the season and Lovie Smith will be returning to 'the scene of the crime,' as Tampa is home to the NFL’s Buccaneers, which was his previous job before landing at Illinois. The Fighting Illini opened with an unimpressive 24-21 home win over Ball State but then as a six-point home 'dog to Western Kentucky, won 20-7. Lovie's always been known as a defensive coach and through two games, Illinois is allowing 14.0 PPG (28th) on 309.5 YPG (48th). However, the team's offense is another story. Illinois averages a woeful 258.0 YPG (123rd), due to anemic passing attack with ranks 120th, averaging 126.0 YPG. In the most important offensive stat of all, points scored, Illinois is T-100th at 22.0 PPG. USF: Taggert may be in Oregon but he left behind QB Quinton Flowers for Charlie Strong. Flowers threw for 2,812 yards with a 24-7 ratio last year, while rushing for 1,530 yards and another 18 TDs. He's not off to a Lamar Jackson-like start in 2017 (398 passing yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT plus 137 rushing yards with just 1 TD) but he has led the Bulls to 42 and 31 points. USF ranks 44th in scoring (36.5 PPG) and 51st in total yards (443.5 YPG). The defense, which allowed 31.6 PPG in 2017, is off to an excellent start, allowing 19.5 PPG (50th) on 308.0 YPG (42nd). That said, the competition has not been all that tough. The pick: The Fighting Illini have proven to be offensively challenged so far but USF's early defensive numbers are a bit of a mirage. As for Illinois' defense, it gets a severe test here from USF, which has scored at least 30 points in 19 straight games! I believe USF will dictate this contest and with a total in the mid-50s (note: the lowest final score for an USF game in 2017 was 60 points!), the Over is an 8* play. |
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09-15-17 | Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -137 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers still boast the best record in the majors (94-52), despite losing 16 of 17 from Aug. 26-Sep. 11. That slump has allowed the 89-57 Nationals, who have already clinched the NL East, to close within five games of Los Angeles atop the National League standings. The Dodgers did lower their magic number to clinch the NL West to seven by capturing the final two contests of their three-game set in San Francisco, their first series victory in just under three weeks. These two NL 'heavyweights' open a three-game series tonight in the nation's capital. The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (14-3 & 2.81 ERA) gets the nod for LA and Edwin Jackson (5-5 & 4.14 ERA) for Washington. Wood opened 11-0 after 16 starts (Dodgers were 13-3), while posting a 1.56 ERA. However, over his last eight starts, he's 3-3 (team is 5-3) but more worrisome is his 5.10 ERA in that span. Wood hasn't faced Washington since 2015 and is 3-3 with a 2.78 ERA over nine starts (teams are 5-4). Jackson joined the Nationals in mid-June and after some solid outings, has labored through two September starts, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA. The former Dodgers farmhand is 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 10 career games (eight starts / teams are 4-4) versus the Dodgers. The pick: Wood is battling a sternum injury and that is more than likely the cause of his recent woes. As for Jackson, the Nats have to be concerned about him allowing nine ERs on 12 hits over just nine innings of his last two starts. Plenty of firepower in both lineups and the Over is an 8* play. |
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09-15-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -116 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs saw their lead in the NL Central dwindle to two games after Milwaukee swept them at Wrigley Field last weekend but the Cubbie bats rebounded in a three-game sweep of the Mets in Wrigley from Tuesday through Thursday. After producing only five runs on 19 hits against the Brewers, the Cubs exploded for 39 runs on 41 hits while winning each of the three games by at least five runs! The sweep of the Mets enabled the defending world champions to maintain their three-game advantage over Milwaukee and St. Louis in the Central heading into the weekend. The Cardinals improved to 10-3 this month following a 5-2 victory over Cincinnati on Thursday and are actually closer in the wild card race, trailing Colorado by 2 1/2 games for the second NL wild-card spot. Coming off a 5-1 homestand, St. Louis' pivotal 10-game road trip begins this afternoon at Wrigley. The Cards have lost eight of the 12 meetings this season with the Cubs, including five of six in Chicago. These NL Central rivals will face each other seven times over their final 16 contests. The pitching matchup: Carlos Martinez (11-10 & 3.33 ERA) takes the mound for St. Louis and John Lackey (11-11 & 4.65 ERA) for Chicago. Martinez has not been quite as good in 2017 as in the previous two seasons but he's been exceptional in September, posting a 1.20 ERA while striking out 18 and holding opponents to a .135 batting average. Martinez last faced the Cubs on July 21, when he did not factor in the decision after permitting three runs two earned) in six innings. Martinez is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts against the Cubs this year (Cards are 3-0!) He is 1-1 with a 3.19 ERA in four career starts at Wrigley Field,and 4-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 22 career games (12 starts / 8-4) vs. Chicago. Like Martinez, Lacket's about a .500 pitcher on the season (see above). However, Chicago is 9-2 in Lackey's last 11 starts and he's 6-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star break. Lackey also has been sharp in two starts this month, giving up two runs and seven hits while striking out 14 in as many innings. Lackey is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts this season versus the Cardinals, yielding two runs over seven innings against them in a no-decision on June 2. He is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts this season versus the Cardinals and 3-2 with a 2.56 ER in eight career starts against the Cards (teams are 4-4). The pick: The Cardinals and Brewers (both 77-69) are tied for second, just three games behind the 80-66 Cubs in the division race. "We've got to take care of ourselves," Cubs left-hander Jon Lester said. "That's the big thing, you can't worry about other people. We're fine, we've just got to play good baseball, and that's what we've been doing." The Cubs are 37-21 since the All-Star break and they have spent the past 51 days in first place in the division. The Cubs have scored a major league-best 347 runs since the All-Star break and rank second in the NL for the season with 746 runs (5.11 per). Chicago has handled St. Louis this season (8-4), including going 5-1 at Wrigley. Make Chicago a 10* play. Cubs win! Cubs win! |
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09-14-17 | Texans +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals each flopped badly at home in their respective 2017 season-openers. The Texans, as 5 1/2-point favorites over the Jags, lost 29-7 and the Bengals, as a three-point favorite over the Ravens, lost 20-0. The Texans gained just 203 total yards (the Jags' 10 sacks were a huge part of that!), while Cincy QB Andy Dalton threw four INTs (plus lost a fumble for five total TOs!), as the Bengals gained only 221 yards and got shut out at home for the first time since 2001. Houston: The Texans traded up in the first round of the 2017 Draft and selected Clemson QB Deshaun Watson 12th overall, but head coach Bill O'Brien stood firm on his commitment to fourth-year veteran Tom Savage as his starting signal-caller, citing both experience and familiarity with the offense as primary reasons behind that decision. However, Savage's "experience" resume stated that he had only played in five career games with just 92 passes attempts and (zero career TD passes! It was fair to say choosing Savage as the starter qualified as an "interesting choice." Thirty minutes into the first game of the season, O'Brien flip-flopped, benching Savage at the half of the Texans' embarrassing 29-7 home loss. Savage was 7 of 13 for 62 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) and was sacked six times and the Texans trailed 19-0. O'Brien felt that the mobile Watson could effectively elude pressure and provide the Texans a sorely needed offensive spark. However, the Jaguars sacked Watson four times and he was just 12 of 23 for 102 yards with a TD and an INT. Houston's rushing attack mustered just 93 yards. Cincinnati: The Bengals managed a measly 221 total yards on 58 plays with Andy Dalton 'laying an egg.' It was a woeful performance by the vet, as he completed 16 of 31 for 170 yards with five turnovers (4 INTs). He posted a 28.4 QB rating, delivering his worst showing since Nov. 6, 2014, when he passed for 86 yards with three interceptions in a 24-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns. For all the promise assigned to rookie RB Joe Mixon, he produced just nine yards on eight carries in his debut. The Bengals' amassed only 77 yards rushing (3.5 YPC) as a team. The defense was fine, as Flacco completed just 9 of 17 for 121 yards (1 TD / 1 INT). Yes, the Ravens did rush for 157 yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. The pick: Lost in the abysmal performance by Dalton was the solid play of Cincinnati's defense. However, can one really trust Dalton to bounce back against a quality Houston defense? Remember, the Texans led the NFL in yards allowed last season (301.3 YPG), despite All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt missing all but three games. Also, Cincy's running game needs to get straightened out. Deshaun Watson will be Houston's starter on Thursday and I expect him to really test that Cincy D. Also, let's not ignore that Houston has won seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams (including the postseason) and held Cincinnati to 10 points (in 2016) and six points (in 2015) in wins these last two seasons. Make Houston a 8* play. |
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09-14-17 | Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mariners and Rangers meet Thursday in the final contest of this four-game series at Arlington. Seattle followed Tuesday's 10-3 win with an 8-1 victory on Wednesday, after Texas had won Monday's opener, 5-3. The Seattle win (Mariners are just 4-5 their last nine) keeps them just 3 1/2 games behind the Twins for the AL's second wild card spot, while Texas dropped four games back after getting outscored 18-4 in back-to-back losses the last two nights. Heading into tonight's series finale, Seattle leads the season series against Texas 10-5. The pitching matchup: Felix Hernandez (5-4 & 4.28 ERA) returns from his second shoulder injury of the season and will take the mound for Seattle, while Andrew Cashner (9-9 & 3.19 ERA) gets the nod for Texas. Hernandez has missed the past six-plus weeks with his latest injury, with his most-recent appearance being a no-decision against the Rangers back on July 31. Hernandez hasn't pitched like a 'King' in 2017, as he's allowed 16 HRs in only 13 starts (his career worst is 23 for an entire season!). The veteran has pitched more than six innings on just three occasions and hasn't posted a single 10-strikeout performance, which is hard to believe considering he has 2,333 Ks in his career. Hernandez is 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA in two starts against the Rangers this year (team is 2-0) and 19-23 with a 3.93 ERA in 52 career starts (Mariners are 23-29). Cashner has pitched well over his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. He settled for a no-decision against the New York Yankees in his last outing, although he allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings (Texas lost 3-1). Cashner is 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in three starts against Seattle this season (Texas is 1-2) and 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts / teams are 2-4). The pick: The Mariners are hoping Hernandez and James Paxton (slated to return from a pectoral injury on Friday) can provide a boost as they try to chase down Minnesota for the American League's second wild-card spot. Here, the Mariners need "the old King Felix" to show up. Let me also note that Cashner, despite his modest 9-9 record, is having the best season of his career. He has gone 6-2 with a 2.49 ERA over his last 11 starts (Texas is 7-4) to lower season ERA from 3.87 to 3.19, sixth-lowest among AL qualifiers. "He's been the most consistent guy out there," Texas manager Jeff Banister said. "He's missed a little time but has progressively gotten better throughout the year. He's been a stabilizer in that rotation. He's pitched like a front-end-of-the-rotation pitcher for us." Make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +15.5 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
\The set-up: The New Mexico Lobos take their 1-1 record to Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho (home of the famous Blue Turf) to face the the 1-1 Boise State Broncos Thursday night in college football action on ESPN. New Mexico opened with a 38-14 home win over Abilene Christian but then lost 30-28 (again, at home) last Saturday to in-state rival New Mexico State. Boise State opened 2017 with a less-than-impressive 24-13 home win over Troy and then last Saturday night at Washington State, lost 47-44 in a three-OT thriller. What a contrast in both of last week's results. New Mexico trailed 30-5 into the 4th-quarter last week and its 23-point final period left them two points shy, when a two-point try failed. As for Boise, the Broncos held a 21-point lead midway through the 4th quarter but couldn’t hold onto that lead after the Cougars tied the game at 31 with just 1:44 left in regulation. Boise State then lost in three OTs. New Mexico: The Lobos made a strong comeback but came up just short at NMSU. QB Lamar Jordan threw for a career-high 213 yards in the team's season-opening win and while no player ran for more than 65 yards, the Lobos ran for 259. However, against NMSU, Jordan was benched, as Tevaka Tuioti completed 10 of 19 passes for 151 yards and two TDs, while leading a comeback that just fell short. Jordan's starting job might be in jeopardy. Defensively, New Mexico is holding its opponents to an average of 22.0 PPG, not bad for a unit which allowed 31.5 PPG last year. However, the Lobos allowed Boise State QB Brett Rypien to throw for 391 yards and four TDs in a 49-21 loss in 2016. Boise State: Like New Mexico, Boise State turned to its backup QB last weekend. Montell Cozart went 12-20 with 161 yards passing, two TDs plus added 72 yards and a TD on the ground, after starting QB Brett Rypien left the game early with an undisclosed injury. Although Rypien is coming off two excellent seasons, throwing for 3353 yards (20-8 ratio) as a freshman and for 3646 yards (24-8 ratio) as a sophomore, he was just 13 of 23 for 160 yards without a TD vs. Troy. He left with an early injury last week, after completing 7 of 8 passes for 76 yards. Boise State's defense allowed 433 passing yards against Washington State but only 22 rushing yards, on 27 attempts. The pick: Brett Rypien is likely out for this game as he recovers from a head injury, so all eyes will be on Montell Cozart to take care of the ball against an opportunistic Lobos defense (Broncos got in trouble last week when the Cougars returned a fumble and an interception for TDs). The last time the Lobos came to Boise in 2015, New Mexico (a 31-point underdog) won 31-24 over a then 7-2 Broncos team. The Broncos are not the 10-3 team they were in 2016. Note that Boise Stae was 0-6 ATS at home in 2016 and barely covered against Troy as a 10 1/2-point choice in an 11-point win to open 2017. Take the points and make New Mexico a 10* play. |
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09-14-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -161 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies won the first two games of their four-game series at the Arizona Diamondbacks, closing to within three games of them in the race for the National League's top wild card spot. However, the D'backs won 8-2 last night, snapping the Rockies' six-game overall winning streak and moving four games up on Colorado in the wild card race. The Rockies aren't just looking up, as they also need to keep an eye on the Brewers, who closed to withing three games of Colorado for the NL's second wild card spot by winning 8-2 last night. Arizona hosts Colorado in the series finale this afternoon. The pitching matchup: Chad Bettis (1-2 & 4.98 ERA), who missed the first 4 1/2 months of the season due to his battle with testicular cancer, takes the mound for Colorado, opposed by Arizona's Zack Godley (7-7 & 3.18 ERA). Bettis finally recorded his first victory of the season on Saturday, in his sixth start since his return from battling cancer. He gave up four runs (three earned) on six hits over five innings against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, striking out five without issuing a walk in a 6-5 win. He takes the mound with a 1-1 record and an unimpressive 7.30 ERA in nine career appearances (six starts / teams are 4-2) versus Arizona. Godley settled for a no-decision against San Diego on Saturday, after allowing two runs on four hits over seven innings (D'backs lost 8-7). Godley also recorded nine strikeouts and did not walk a batter on Saturday and overall, has had a solid 2017 season. He's allowed just 103 hits over 136.0 innings, owns a 145-47 KW ratio plus to go along with his solid 3.18 ERA, owns a 1.10 WHIP and .211 BAA Godley won his first career start versus the Rockies back on June 22 in Denver (10-3), after making two relief appearances against the club last season. The pick: I've been impressed by Godley and while it's hard to "root against" Bettis in his fight with cancer, I'll back the D'backs, who own a 47-27 home record, outscoring opponents 5.55-to-4.12 RPG. Only the Dodgers have more home wins (52) but no team owns a better home moneyline mark than Arizona at plus-$1305.. Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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09-13-17 | Astros v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 105 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The set up: Thanks to Justin Verlander, Houston won a good old fashioned pitcher's duel last night, 1-0 over the Angels. The win snapped a four-game losing streak for the AL West leaders and reduced their magic number to five. The loss hurt the Angels as they fell to two games back of Minnesota in the battle for the American League's final playoff berth. There has been a pitching change for tonight as the Astros will be going with Michael Fiers rather than Lance McCullers (arm fatigue). My play here still stands. The pitching matchup: The move from McCullers to Fiers doesn't impact my play here because neither was going to match what we saw from Verlander (eight shutout innings of one-hit ball) last night. Fiers has allowed a total of 14 runs in his last two starts and the Over is 6-2 when he starts on the road. A 5.08 ERA on the road shows that it's not the offense that's responsible for those Overs as Fiers clearly hasn't pitched well either. Angels starter Tyler Skaggs isn't exactly in top form either coming into tonight as he's allowed a total of 19 runs in his previous four starts. One of them was against Houston and he allowed five runs in five innings. The pick: Neither starting pitcher figures to perform well tonight and thus it's going to be a very different matchup compared to last night. Houston leads all of baseball (by a wide margin) in runs per game scored on the road at 6.1. Thus, it should come as no shock that the Over is 41-24-7 in all of their road game this season. The Angels aren't nearly the offensive juggernaut that Houston is, but they do have Mike Trout in their lineup and figure to score at least a few runs off Fiers. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-13-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -117 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set up: The Blue Jays rallied to beat the Orioles last night, 3-2, scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth. That makes it two straight for the home team in this series as they also won Monday, again by one run (4-3). At this time last week, Baltimore considered itself a Wild Card contender, but even the biggest optimist on the Birds would have to re-consider that position as the team has now dropped six in a row to fall three games below .500 and 4.5 back of the Twins for the final Wild Card. Toronto, who is out of playoff contention, has won its last four games. The pitching matchup: It will be Marcus Stroman going today for the Jays. While it's not reflected at the betting window, Stroman is his team's best starter. He easily leads the rotation in both ERA and WHIP, plus his 17 wins are three more than every other starter. While he hasn't won in almost a month, Stroman has had Baltimore's number this year, not giving up an earned run to them in two starts. The Orioles go with Kevin Gausman here. He wasn't good in his last start (gave up five runs in three innings) and has a 4.99 ERA and 1.587 WHIP for the season. The pick: Not only has Baltimore struggled of late, they're just a bad road team. A 26-44 record away from Camden Yards does little to inspire any confidence that they'll avoid the sweep tonight. Nor does the fact they've been outscored 28-10 during the six-game losing streak. This team won't beat you with its pitching and seeing as Stroman should shut down a lineup that's hitting a collective .193 its last seven contests, the Blue Jays should win rather handily. Make Toronto a 10* |
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09-12-17 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
The set up: The Dodgers now own the dubious distinction of being the first team in MLB history to have both won and lost 15 of 16 games in the same season. Their losing streak has hit 11 games following last night's 8-6 setback at the hands of the Giants. Despite being huge favorites with Clayton Kershaw starting tonight, the NL West leaders are basically "unplayable" at this point as they have to show me some semblance of getting back on track. The Giants are having a disastrous season as they are 36 games back of Los Angeles and have been one of the worst teams in baseball for most of 2017. The pitching matchup: Even the great Kershaw hasn't been immune to his team's recent futility. His last start saw him last only 3 2/3 innings and he allowed four runs as the Dodgers lost 9-1 to the Rockies as -305 favorites! But I fully anticipate him bouncing back here. The Dodgers lone win in the last 17 games came with Kershaw on the mound as he threw six innings of shutout ball. Kershaw is clearly still one of the best pitchers in baseball and on the road his record is 8-1 to go along with a 1.45 ERA and 0.893 WHIP. San Francisco goes with Johnny Cueto here and he at least should give the team a "fighting chance." Cueto has a solid 3.21 ERA in 16 career starts vs. Los Angeles. The pick: Due to a three-plus hour rain delay, last night's game didn't end until after 2 am PT! That should give a huge edge to the pitchers in this one. Not that Kershaw needs it; he's beaten the Giants 20 times in his career and has 1.62 ERA while doing it. It also helps that the Giants have scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball. Cueto is off one of his best starts of the year though and as mentioned before, should keep his team in it. The Dodgers have scored one run or less in five of their last eight contests. The Under seems like a logical call here, so make it a 10* play. |
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09-12-17 | White Sox v. Royals -170 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The set up: The Royals were crushed Monday, 11-3 by the White Sox, a result that did their fleeting playoff hopes no favors. The way things stand now is that Kansas City is three games back of Minnesota for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Though they've won three straight, the White Sox have the AL's worst record, so this is a series that the Royals simply MUST take advantage of, as they're only 7-7 vs. Chicago this year. It's a quick turnaround with Tuesday's game being played during the daytime. The pitching matchup: Sam Gaviglio pitches for KC today. Things have not gone well for him as he has a 7.47 ERA his previous three starts. But that's a little bit misleading seeing as only one of those starts has come since the All-Star Break. It was exactly one week ago and Gaviglio pitched well, allowing just one run in five innings. It was the fifth time in 12 starts that Gaviglio allowed 1 or 0 runs while going at least five innings this season. He'll face off with anothe rookie today, Dylan Covey, who has yet to record a win in his big league career. His team start record is 3-5, but he's personally 0-4. His 8.13 ERA and 1.806 WHIP won't exactly bring him any sympathy. Covey last started a game in May. Since coming off the DL in August, he's been working out of the bullpen. He threw 4 2/3 innings back on 8.21 against Minnesota and the results weren't pretty as he allowed two home runs. The pick: This is a must win for the Royals and by starting Covey, it appears as if Chicago is making it easy on them. The Sox have been a terrible road team most of the year with a 23-46 record away from home, which includes a 9-23 mark when priced between +125 and +175 (as they are here). This being a day game seems to favor the home team as well. Kansas City averages 5.0 rpg in afternoon affairs and facing Covey, they should be able to top that average with ease. Make KC an 8* play. |
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09-11-17 | Mariners v. Rangers -132 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
The set up: Seven teams are separated by just 3.5 games in the fight for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. You can count both the Mariners and Rangers among them. Texas is 71-71 on the year and has arguably played better than any of their fellow Wild Card contenders. But they lost two of three to the Yankees over the weekend, which did them no favors. Seattle is off a winning weekend as they took two of three from the Angels in a critical series. But that was at home and the M's have still lost four of six overall. They've been a big money loser as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this year, going just 9-17. The pitching matchup: Texas will have Cole Hamels starting this all-important series opener. While he hasn't pitched all that well of late (8.22 ERA last three starts!), Hamels is unbeaten in Arlington this year, going 6-0 in nine starts here. Seattle has given him trouble in the past, but getting to pitch at home tonight should be huge for the southpaw. Seattle goes with Ariel Miranda, who has won just one time in his last 11 trips to the mound. Despite a 10-5 team start record, Miranda has some pretty ugly numbers when pitching on the road and unlike Hamels there isn't much of a track record to lean on with him. The pick: Supporters may point to the fact that Miranda didn't allow a hit in his last start (lasted six innings). But that's a little bit misleading as he walked six, which heavily contributed to the fact Seattle lost 3-1 to Houston. His previous road start saw Miranda allow six runs. Texas, which lost 16-7 on Sunday, is 25-15 after allowing 10 or more runs the previous game. Make Texas a 10* play! |
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09-11-17 | Saints +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 250 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL serves up a MNF doubleheader with the New Orleans Saints visiting the Minnesota in the first half. One can't ignore the irony, as after serving as the face of the Minnesota Vikings' franchise for the majority of his 10-year career, Adrian Peterson brings his new club, the New Orleans Saints, into U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night. The 2012 NFL MVP hopes to show his-former team that he still has plenty left in the tank. "Of course I want to stick it to them. I want to stick it to everyone we play," the 32-year-old Peterson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. "But going back to Minnesota, playing the Vikings? Yeah, I want to stick it to them." New Orleans: The Saints won the Super Bowl in 2009 and through 2013, made the playoffs in four of five years. However, last year's 7-9 season marked the third straight year New Orleans has gone exactly 7-9, naturally missing the playoffs each time. The Saints finished the preseason with a 2-2 record and opens 2017 with Drew Brees at QB for another season. Brees put up yet another 5,000 yard season, throwing for 5,208 yards, 37 TDs and 15 INTs. WR Brandin Cook is now in New England but Michael Thomas was terrific in his rookie season of 2016 (will hope to replicate the success from his rookie season in 2016 (92 catches for 1137 yards with 9 TDs). Ted Ginn Jr. joins the fray to add a speed threat for the Saints on the outside (also adds as a special-teamer). We know this, that like Brady, Brees has "made do" with whomever lines up as his pass-catchers over his career. The "unknown" is, where will Adrian Peterson fit in the offense? Many expect Mark Ingram to lead the ground game for the Saints heading into the season, after coming off career highs in rushing yards (1,043), yards from scrimmage (1,362) and total TDs (10). New Orleans' defense has languished near the bottom of the NFL for the last three seasons, including a 31st rank in points allowed in 2016 at 28.4. Enough said. Minnesota: The Vikings made the postseason in 2015 (can anyone forget their hard-breaking loss to Seattle in that one?), although that was the team's lone winning season from from 2013 through 2016 (went 8-8 last year). Mike Zimmer had been a preseason 'monster,' going 12-1 in his first three seasons as Minnesota's head coach but this year's team went 2-2 this preseason. Sam Bradford benefited from a short-yardage passing game to set an NFL record for completion percentage last season (71.6%), due in large part to the team's inability to run the ball. Minnesota hopes it has addressed its sputtering running game by selecting Florida State's Dalvin Cook in the second round of the 2017 draft and acquiring Latavius Murray in the off-season (TBD). However, Minnesota boasted five Pro Bowl selections on its defense which ranked third in the league last season in yards allowed per game (314.9 per). The Vikings return nearly every starter. The pick: The Vikings shocked everyone by opening 5-0 SU & ATS in 2016 but a Week 6 bye seemingly derailed their season. After returning, Minnesota finished 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS. I, for one, believe the team's 5-0 start was a 'mirage' and the rest of Minnesota's season is what we will see more of in 2017. Historically, the Saints have been a great home team but a poor road one. However, that was surely NOT the case in 2016, as the Saints were a highly-profitable 7-1 ATS on the road, including 6-1 as a road dog (note: Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games). Is this strictly an offense vs. defense matchup? Not so fast. The New Orleans' defense made some good additions and played with improved resolve in the preseason. Take the points and make the Saints a 10* play. |
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09-10-17 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 227 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dallas Cowboys will host the New York Giants to cap off a busy "Opening Day" of NFL action as the two long-time NFC East rivals meet in AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) for Sunday Night Football on NBC. Here's the big news and I'll copy it directly from reports. Federal judge Amos Mazzant granted a request by the NFL Players Association on Friday for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to prevent the implementation of the six-game suspension for Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott was already eligible to play in Sunday's season opener against the New York Giants, but his suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy was to begin Monday. With the injunction granted, Elliott likely will be able to continue playing as the legal process plays out. NY Giants: New York rebounded from three consecutive losing seasons to earn its first postseason berth since 2011, sparked by a defense that led the NFC with an average of 17.8 PPG allowed, almost 10 points per game less than it allowed in 2015 (27.6). The Giants also went from last in the entire NFL in yards allowed (420.3 per game) to 10th at 339.7 YPG. QB Eli Manning threw for 26 TDs against 16 INTs, while reaching 4,000 yards (4,027) for the sixth time in his career, despite a running game that averaged only 88.3 YPG (29th) and produced a league-worst six rushing TDs. The Giants added two pieces to the passing game by signing six-time Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall and making rookie TE Evan Engram their first-round draft pick out of .OBJ is coming off huge season, catching a career-high 101 passes for 10 TDs but his status remains unknown for this contest, after a preseason injury. Dallas: Rookies Elliott (led NFL in rushing with 1,631 yards) and Prescott (23 TDs against only four INTs for a 104.9 QB rating) led Dallas to last year's 13-3 (10-6 ATS) record. Now, both seem to be ready for a sophomore encore. the Dallas D allowed 343.9 YPG which ranked 14th but more importantly, held opponents to just 19.1 PPG, fifth-best in the NFL. However, the Cowboys will be missing three defensive linemen due to suspension on Sunday night.. The pick: The Cowboys were 7-1 at home last season but that lone loss came to the Giants 20-19 in Week 1 at Dallas, Then, New York held Dallas to 260 yards in defeating the Cowboys 10-7 in Week 14 at MetLife Stadium, completing the season sweep. Note that Elliott was held to 162 yards on the ground in two meetings against the Giants in 2016. If anyone in the league can "tough-talk" the Cowboys, it could be the Giants. New York held Dallas's powerful offense in check both times last year (to 19 and 7 points!) but also note, the Giants scored just 20 and 10 points, themselves. Make the Under an 8* |
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09-10-17 | Colts +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 9-46 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indianapolis Colts and the Los Angeles Rams will be kicking off their NFL season at LA's Memorial Coliseum on Sunday afternoon. The Colts lost their first two preseason games against the Lions (24-10) and Cowboys (24-19), but won the final two against the Steelers (19-15) and Bengals (7-6). Indy is off back-to-back 8-8 seasons, both affected by Andrew Luck's injury woes. The Rams' return to LA didn't go well in 2016, as they lost 11 of their last 12 games to finish 4-12. The Rams have now missed the playoffs for 12 straight years and recorded 13 straight non-winning seasons (8-8 in both 2006 and 2004). The Rams won their first two preseason games, 13-10 over the Cowboys and 24-21 over the Raiders but then dropped their last two, 21-19 versus the Chargers and 24-10 in Green Bay. Indianapolis: The Colts will be without star QB Andrew Luck against the Rams. Scott Tolzien will make his fourth career start in place of Luck. Tolzien's main target will be T.Y. Hilton, who led the NFL last year with 1,448 receiving yards and is one of four players in league history with at least 850 yards and five touchdown catches in each of his first five seasons. Frank Gore rushed for 1,025 yards last season, becoming the first Indianapolis running back to reach the 1,000-yard plateau since Joseph Addai accomplished the feat in 2007. Gore is looking to become the fifth player in NFL history to hit the mark in 10 different campaigns. LA Rams: New head coach Sean McVay will step in and look to reverse what's been a losing situation for the Rams. It doesn't help that Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (the team's top defensive player) is expected to miss Week 1 as he continues to hold out for a new contract. Los Angeles' defense ranked ninth in the league last season but figures to struggle without Donald - something new coordinator Wade Phillips will attempt to avoid. RB Todd Gurley had 1,212 yards from scrimmage in 2016, marking the second straight season he has registered at least 1,200. WR Austin is a triple threat, after a season in which he had 52 catches for 509 yards (3 TDs), gained 364 yards on 44 punt returns and added 159 yards and a score on 28 rushes. Last year's overall No. 1 pick, Jared Goff, opens the season as the starter (54.6% with 5-7 ratio & 63.6 QB rating in 2016). The pick: The Colts' D is among the bottom-half of all defenses but the Rams owned the NFL's worst offense in 2016, averaging league-lows in both points (14.0) and yards (262.7). The jury is still out on Goff and he will take the field Sunday, 0-7 as an NFL starter. In losing 11 of their last 12 games in 2016, the Rams went 1-10-1 ATS in those contests. After a 9-3 Week 2 shocker over Seattle, the Rams lost their final seven home games, going 0-6-1 ATS. No way Rams should be laying points. Make Indy an 8* play. |
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09-10-17 | Jaguars v. Texans -4 | Top | 29-7 | Loss | -110 | 2858 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Texans are off back-to-back playoff appearances, including the franchise's first-playoff win last year. Even though Houston has made a postseason Jacksonville: Yes, the Jags have a string of six consecutive losing seasons but the team is far from pessimistic about 2017. The defense ranked sixth in yards allowed in 2016 (321.7 YPG) but gave up 25.0 PPG due to poor offensive production and a minus-16 TO ratio (third-worst in the NFL). The addition of RB Leonard Fournette and WR Dede Westbrook in the draft is good news but the QB position is, to say the least, iffy. Jacksonville needs solid QB play to take the next step but after a huge drop-off in his 2016 performance (off a promising 2015 one), Bortles didn't showcase that improvement in the preseason. With a chance to move ahead of Bortles in the preseason, veteran Chad Henne failed to do so. Houston: The Texans traded embattled QB Brock Osweiler before the draft, then took Clemson's Deshaun Watson with the 12th overall pick. However, Tom Savage will get the start at QB. He has just two starts under his belt, both coming last season when starter Brock Osweiler proved too ineffective to maintain the charade of his reliability and trust. Savage has only played in five career games and attempted just 92 passes (zero career TD passes!) It's fair to say choosing Savage as the starter qualifies as an "interesting choice." All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt missed all but three games last season after undergoing two back operations but Houston still led the NFL in yards allowed (301.3 YPG). Think his return will hurt? The pick: Doug Marrone, who was 15-17 in two seasons with the Bills and served as interim coach for the final two games last season for Jacksonville, is the Jaguars' fifth head coach. I have to wonder what he really offers and will Bortles be able to focus on his play, while blocking out that noise of disappointment from fans? Houston has won six straight in the series, meaning Bortles has yet to beat this Romeo Crennel-led defense (note: Jags are just 2-22 on the road the last three seasons, overall!). Bortles has just six TD passes vs. eight picks in those games. I'd rather see Clemson rookie Deshaun Watson at QB but for this matchup with Jacksonville, Savage appears to be a serviceable option. Make Houston an 8* play. |
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09-10-17 | Jets +7 v. Bills | Top | 12-21 | Loss | -105 | 219 h 22 m | Show |
NY Jets: This team has gotten rid of most of its offensive veterans and then traded its star player on defense, Sheldon Richardson, just last week to the Seahawks. The 38-year-old Josh McCown played fairly well in the second half of last season with the Cleveland Browns and becomes the Jets' starting QB. However, he did not epect to have much help from his receiving corps, and that was before Quincy Enunwa was lost to a season-ending neck injury in the off-season. Aging running back Matt Forte and all-purpose threat Bilal Powell are the team's top play-makers. All-in-all, New York's defense hung in there last year, allowing 342.4 YPG to rank 11th in total D. Buffalo: First-year head coach Sean McDermott said he intends to lean heavily on dual-threat running back LeSean McCoy (1,267 rush yards & 13 TDs plus 50 receptions last season). That would make sense and he's also happy to see that Tyrod Taylor cleared concussion protocol just in time to get the nod at QB. Taylor completed 61.7% for 3023 yards last season plus ran for 580 (6.1 YPC) and six more TDs. Rex Ryan was supposed to be a defensive gluru but Buffao's defense ranked behind that of New York's last season, allowing 357.0 YPG (19th). The pick: Due to the lack of offensive weapons on both sides, this game looks to be a low-scoring affair and that favors the underdog Jets. Let's also not forget that the Jets beat the Bills in both of last year's meetings, 37-31 in a Week 2 Thursday night game at home and then 31-10 up in Buffalo in Week 17. Grab the points and make the Jets a 10* play. |
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09-09-17 | Boise State +10.5 v. Washington State | Top | 44-47 | Win | 100 | 82 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-0 Boise State Broncos will travel to Marin Stadium in Pullman, Washington to take on the 20th-ranked 1-0 Washington State Cougars this Saturday night. Washington State opened 24th in AP's preseason poll, just the third time in school-history that the Cougars were a top-25 team in the preseason. The team's 31-0 win over Montana State last Saturday marked the school's first season-opening win since Mike Leach took over in 2012 and the Cougars moved up to No. 20. Boise State is off a 10-3 season in 2016, one which included a 31-28 home win over Washington State. The Cougars rallied from 17 points down in the third quarter in that one and QB Luke Falk, who threw for 480 yards, had a last-second heave batted down. Boise State escaped with its 34th consecutive home win against a non-conference opponent at the time. Boise State: The Broncos were unimpressive in last week's 24-13 at home win over Troy. QB Brett Rypien is coming off two excellent seasons, throwing for 3353 yards (20-8 ratio) as a freshman and for 3646 yards (24-8 ratio) as a sophomore. He was just 13 of 23 for 160 yards without a TD vs. Troy. He was sacked four times and threw an interception that was returned for a TD. In fact, backup QB Montell Cozart, a graduate transfer from Kansas, led the Broncos to both of their offensive TDs (he was 6 of 9 for 50 yards with one TD pass and 0 INTs plus had 36 rush yards). Boise State has had solid defenses through most of the team's recent outstanding successes and at least against Troy, looked good, holding the Trojans to 215 yards and 11 FDs. Washington State: QBs like Sam Darnold (USC), Baker Mayfield (Okla), Lamar Jackson (Louisville) and JT Barrett (Ohio St) all get more Heisman hype but WSU's Luke Falk may be the best QB in college football. If that's not true, he may at worst, have the best numbers. He completed his first 20 passes last week and finished 33 of 39 for 311 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. I won't bore you. Check out his career stats. He'll finish his career among the very best in all of CFB history. Leach's first five defenses at Washington State have allowed 33.7 PPG, 32.5 PPG, 38.6 PPG, 27.7 PPG and 26.4 PPG. It's been a slight improvement these last two seasons and nine starters return. It's hard to judge after a home win over Montana State but the Cougars did allow just 143 yards, seven FDs and allowied Montana State to convert just 1 of 11 third downs. The pick: Washington State is playing with a big revenge motive plus some say that there is a QB controversy brewing at Boise after HC Bryan Harsin yanked starter Rypien in favor of backup Cozart, However, Harsin reiterated earlier this week that Rypien's status as the starter has not changed. I don't see how one can trust Washington State as this much of a favorite over a Boise Stae team that hasn't been an underdog since meeting Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl after the 2014 season. BTW,...Boise State (+3) won that game, 38-30. Take the points and make Boise State an 8* play. |
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09-09-17 | Stanford v. USC -6 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 14 Stanford returns from a 62-7 rout of Rice (Aug. 26 in Sydney, Australia) to play No. 6 USC this Saturday at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Stanford dominated Rice on both sides of the football and had no trouble securing the victory after taking a 41-0 lead at halftime. The 4th-ranked Trojans had all they could handle against Western Michigan last Saturday but was able to pull away. USC found themselves in a battle as the game was tied at 21 all at the end of the 3rd quarter but a 14-point scoring outburst over a 36 second span late in the 4th quarter led to a 49-21 win. Stanford: The Cardinal out-gained Rice 656-241 in total yards. RB Bryce Love had 180 rushing yards and a TD on just 13 carries (13.8 YPC) plus fellow RB Scarlett had 59 yards (7.4 TPC) plus three TDs. Stanford has to be very encouraged by the play of QB Keller Chryst, who was injured throughout spring practice. He completed 14 of 24 passes for 253 yards and 2 TDs. Chryst took over for Ryan Burns last year in late October and led Stanford to six straight wins, while throwing 10 TDs and just one INT. Stanford ranked 18th in scoring defense last year (20.4 PPG) and should once again be one of the better defenses in the country led by secondary of Justin Reid and Quenton Meeks. The Cardinal held Rice, which averaged 215 YPG passing in 2016, to just 95 passing yards. USC: Heisman Trophy candidate QB Sam Darnold threw for 289 yards on 23 of 33 but did not throw a TD pass and was intercepted twice. RB Ronald Jones II ran for 159 yards and three TDs, as the Trojans did present a balanced offense (289 passing yards and 232 rushing yards). The Trojans allowed 24.2 PPG last year (38th) but despite returning seven starters in 2017, allowed 31 points to Western Michigan. The pick: This is a possible preview of the 2017 Pac-12 title game. Stanford won three conference championships from 2012 to 2015 and last year 's 10-3 record marked Stanford's sixth season with 10-plus victories since 2010. USC entered 2017 as the Pac-12 favorite and Darnold as a Heisman-favorite. USC, after Darnold took over at QB, won its final nine games, capped by a thrilling 52-49 win over Penn St. in the Rose Bowl. This rivalry changed dramatically back in 2007, when Stanford, coached by Jim Harbaugh and a 41-point underdog at USC, pulled the shocking 24-23 upset. Stanford is 8-3 SU against USC since then, including three straight wins. However, USC's "close call" last week sets up as the perfect motivator for USC, which comes into this game having won 10 straight at home. This one will "make or break" USC's season. My bet says make USC a 10* play. |
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09-09-17 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -154 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: When the Tigers dealt away Justin Verlander at the trade deadline (Aug. 31), it was the team's way of 'saying uncle' to the 2017 season. However, some building blocks for the future like Nick Castellanos still remain. Castellanos hit his third career grand slam in last night's 5-4 win at Toronto, while rookie third baseman Jeimer Candelario, highlighted the defensive the defensive effort by starting a triple play. The 60-80 Tigers are not all that much worse than the Blue Jays, who have now lost nine of 12 and sit at 64-77. The pitching matchup: Chad Bell (0-2 & 5.98 ERA) starts for Detroit and Brett Anderson (2-3 & 6.42 ERA) for Toronto. Bell is a 28-year-old rookie who had made 19 relief appearances before getting knocked around for five runs on eight hits in four innings in his debut start last Sunday against Cleveland (Indians won 11-1). He gets a second start here against Toronto. Anderson began the season with the Chicago Cubs before being waived on August 1, after which he was signed to a minor-league deal by Toronto. He is making his third start for Blue Jays and will look for his first win despite pitching fairly well against Boston and Baltimore (3.09 ERA). He owns a 3-3 record (4.45 ERA) in six career starts vs. Detroit. The pick: In this game between two also-rans, it sure seems like Toronto is the much better choice in this one. Anderson is a veteran lefty with some savvy. Anderson is trying to regain a starting role after going 2-2 with an 8.18 ERA in six starts this season with the Cubs before being released. As noted above, he has looked decent in his two previous starts for Toronto. Meanwhile, Bell makes just his second career start (this is his 21st appearance in 2017), having allowed 57 hits in his 46.2 innings, with a 1.69 WHIP and .298 BAA to go along with his unsightly 5.98 ERA. Make Toronto a 10*. |
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09-09-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Syracuse UNDER 77 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders opened their 2017 season with a 28-6 loss at home to Vanderbilt and now visit the Syracuse Orange this Saturday at the Carrier Dome in search of their first win. Syracuse is home for a second straight weekend, romping 50-7 over Central Connecticut State to open its 2017 season. MTSU went 8-5 overall in 2016 (5-3 in C-USA play), including a 52-35 loss in the Hawaii Bowl to the home-standing Rainbow Warriors. Dino Babers used back-to-back bowl appearances at Bowling Green to get the head job at Syracuse but in his first season (2016), finished just 4-8 (2-6 in the ACC). The two schools are meeting for the first time as FBS members. Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders were shut down against Vanderbilt, falling behind 14-0 after the first quarter. MTSU didn't crack Vandy's end zone until the fourth quarter, well after the outcome had been decided. The offense was held to a modest 215 yards. QB Brent Stocksrtill, who threw for over 4000 yards (30-9 ratio) in 2015 and for 3233 yards in 2016 (31-7 ratio), was held to 166 yards with one TD and one INT. MTSU ran for only 49 yards on 26 attempts. Syracuse: The Orange totally out-classed Central Connecticut State, opening up a 31-0 advantage at halftime, before coasting the rest of the way. The Orange had a dominant 586-167 advantage in total offense and racked up 34 FDs to Central Connecticut’s eight. QB Eric Dungey was outstanding, completing 28 of 36 passes for 328 yards with three TDs (he also ran 51 yards and two scores on the ground). The pick: The Syracuse defense had no problem with Central Connecticut State but let's not forget that the Orange allowed 38.6 PPG. Yes, 10 starters return but the MTSU offense will be a much tougher test. The Blue Raiders were shut down by the Vandy defense but this team did average 39.7 PPG last season. The 'catch' here though is, the over/under number is currently in the mid-70s. MTSU struggled with Vandy's D (at home!), so while the Syracuse D is much 'softer,' this is a road game. Note that MTSU enters on a 3-19 run in road openers. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-09-17 | Iowa -2.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: In-state bragging rights are at stake as the Iowa Hawkeyes visit rival Iowa State in Ames for the annual Cy-Hawk Trophy series. Both teams are coming off wins in the opening weekend, with Iowa man-handling the Wyoming Cowboys and potential NFL first-round draft pick QB Josh Allen in a 24-3 defeat in Iowa City, while Iowa State beat Northern Iowa 42-24, although it wasn't as easy convincing as the final score would indicate. This will be the 65th meeting in the series, with Iowa holding a 42-22 all-time advantage. The Hawkeyes are 18-8 all-time in games played in Ames, including winning two straight at Jack Trice Stadium. Iowa: The Hawkeyes won their first game on defense, holding a Wyoming team which averaged 35.9 PPG on 435 YPG to three points and 233 total yards. QB Allen completed 23 of 40 for just 174 yards with two INTs. Iowa QB Stanley was only 8 of 15 for 125 yards but threw three TDs, RB Wadley ran for 116 yards. Iowa State: Iowa State fell behind 7-0 in the 1st quarter against NIU but then twice intercepted Panther QB Dunne and returned each for TDs. Take away those two picks and the game was pretty even. Iowa State QB Jacob Park completed 77.1 percent of his passes for 271 yards with two TDs and one INT in last week's win. The running game had just 134 yards and the defense allowed 24 points on 378 yards (21 FDs). The pick: Iowa has won its last two visits to Ames and last year in Iowa City, dominated Iowa State in a 42-3 win. The 'gap' between the two schools has not changed that dramatically since then. The Hawkeyes' D is the difference in this one with a modest pointspread. Make Iowa an 8* play. |
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09-08-17 | Astros -161 v. A's | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -161 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros were off on Thursday and on Friday will open a four-game series in Oakland, which continues the team's 10-game road trip. Houston seeks an eighth consecutive victory tonight in Oakland but the Indians have ripped off 15 straight wins, closing to within 2 1/2 games of the Astros for the best record in the American League (note: Cleveland won the season series from Houston, meaning if both teams tie for the most wins, Cleveland would earn the home field edge). Last-place Oakland (AL West) halted an eight-game skid with a 3-1 victory over the LA Angels but hardly seems capable (interested?) in competing against the Astros in this series. The pitching matchup: Collin McHugh (2-2 & 3.25 ERA) is back healthy and is now a regular part of the starting rotation for Houston. He'll be opposed by Oakland's Jharel Cotton (7-10 & 5.53 ERA). McHugh didn't make his first start of 2017 until July 22. He allowed four ERs over just 4 2/3 innings in his first start and seven ERs in his fourth (5 1/3 innings). However, in his other six outings, he's allowed just five ERs over 34 1/3 innings (1.31 ERA). McHugh was denied a chance at winning his third straight start last time out when he was pulled after 4 2/3 innings despite yielding one run on four hits against Texas. McHugh pitched six scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over Oakland on Aug. 19, upping his career record against the A's to 7-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 10 starts (team is 9-1). Cotton is a rookie making his 22nd start of 2017. He did beat the Astros on Aug. 20 by tossing 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball but going back to July 3, he has surrendered at least four runs in six of his eight starts (6.38 ERA in that span). Cotton is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston (A's are 1-2). The pick: Home has not been where the heart is for Cotton in this, his first full season in the majors. He owns a respectable 3.81 ERA in 10 road starts but in 11 home starts, his ERA is a bloated 7.09 and his WHIP is 1.58. Reminding all of Houston's seven-game winning streak and McHugh's OUTSTANDING career record vs. Oakland (see above), what's not to like about Houston? Make the Astros a 10* play. |
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09-08-17 | Orioles v. Indians -141 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians coasted past the Chicago White Sox by an 11-2 margin on Thursday (MLB's longest undefeated trip since 1957!), completing an 11-0 road trip. Overall, Cleveland now owns a franchise-record 15-game winning streak, eclipsing its 14-game streak from a year ago. The Indians also maintained their commanding 11-game lead in the AL Central with Thursday's victory. The Orioles have clawed their way back into AL wild card race but have exchanged wins and losses over their last eight games, after Thursday's 9-1 loss against the NY Yankees. Baltimore enters this three-game road series with the Indians two games back of the Twins for the second AL wild-card spot (Angels are one game ahead of the Orioles). Also note that four other teams are no more than two back of Baltimore. The pitching matchup: Wade Miley (8-11, 4.91 ERA) takes the mound for Baltimore and Mike Clevinger (8-5 & 3.50 ERA) for Cleveland. It has not been a good year for Miley but he has allowed three runs or less in his last seven starts. He has allowed 32 hits in 38 2/3 innings during this current seven-start stretch, posting a 2.79 ERA (Baltimore is 5-2). Miley is 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA in four career starts vs. the Indians (teams are 2-2). Clevinger is an "under the radar" pitcher in 2017, having gone 8-4 with a 3.18 ERA as a starter this year, striking out 107 in 96 1/3 innings. He's posted consecutive scoreless outings (home to KC and at Detroit, a span of 12 innings), heading into this start. He got the win opposite Miley 6-3 over the Orioles on June 22 in Baltimore but has surrendered six runs on 10 hits with seven walks in two starts (nine innings) against the Orioles (1-0 & 6.00 ERA / team is 1-1). The pick: Baltimore's back in the wild card hunt but why try to 'step in front of' this Cleveland 'train?' The Indians have pulled away from the pack in the AL Central and still have a chance to run down Houston for the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs. 84-56 Cleveland only trails 86-53 Houston by 2 1/2 games and the Indians only need to finish in a tie with Astros, as Cleveland went 5-1 versus the Houston this year. Make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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09-07-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: LA's 'free-fall' has been sudden and dramatic. Los Angeles was outscored 19-2 during a three-game home sweep at the hands of wild card-leading Arizona D'backs, trimming its lead in the NL West to 10 1/2 games. While the Diamondbacks have won 13 straight games, the Dodgers have lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12 contests. Colorado missed a chance to distance themselves from the pack in the NL wild-card race by going just 3-6 on its just-completed nine-game homestand. Colorado has fallen 7 1/2 games back of the red-hot D'backs for the No. 1 wild card spot and now is looking over its shoulder at the Cards (two back) and Brewers ( 21/2 games back). Can Colorado gain some separation on the road as it begins a crucial eight-game road trip on Thursday with the opener of a four-game series against the major league-best but suddenly struggling 92-47 LA Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Jon Gray (6-4 & 4.26 ERA) steps to the mound for Colorado and Clayton Kershaw (16-2 & 1.95 ERA) for LA. Gray has been very solid by allowing three runs or less in each of his last eight starts but is just 3-3 in that span (Rockies are only 3-5). Gray is 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA in seven career starts (Rockies are 4-3) against Los Angeles, including a no-decision on April 8 in which he allowed one run over 5 1/3 frames despite yielding four hits and three walks. Kershaw makes just his second start since missing over one month with a lower back strain. He showed no ill effects from the injury in his return, as he allowed two hits and struck out seven over six scoreless innings of a 1-0 triumph at San Diego on Friday (LA's lone win in the team's last 12 games). Kershaw yielded four runs over six frames in a loss at Colorado on April 8 but won his next three starts against the Rockies in 2017, allowing a total of four runs over 20 innings, to improve to 21-6 (3.05 ERA) lifetime versus the Rockies in 36 starts (Dodgers are 27-9). The pick: Kershaw has been un-hittable in 2017, as he'll take a 12-game winning streak into this contest (last loss was back on May 1, with the Dodgers going in 16-0 his starts over that span). Kershaw has allowed just 103 hits in 147 1/3 innings with a 175-24 KW ratio, an 0.86 WHIP and a BAA of .193! Meanwhile, Gray enters pitching well too, a job made easier by the LA bats suddenly going 'silent.' The Dodgers have lost five straight at home, while scoring just four runs (note; LA has averaged just 2.2 5 RPG in losing 11 of 12). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +9 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 155 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots open up the 2017 NFL season Thursday at Gillette Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday night on NBC. The Pats were 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS this preseason plus saw Julian Edelman go down with a season-ending injury. The Chiefs, coming off a 12-4 record in 2016 (won AFC West), were 2-2 SU & ATS this preseason. Kansas City: Andy Reid has led the Chiefs to the playoffs in three of his four seasons in KC (arrived in 2013), winning 11, 11 and 12 games in his postseason years, while missing in 2014 at 9-7. The offense will look similar to last year's unit with Alex Smith at QB (1st-round pick Pat Mahomes II is in the wings) plus WR Tyreek Hill doing a little bit of everything and TE Travis Kelce continuing to prove he's one of the best at his position in the NFL. RB Spencer Ware may be lost for the season (injured in Week 3 of the preseason) but a combination of Kareem Hunt, Charcandrick West and C.J. Spiller may work. The Chiefs own one of the best secondary’s in the league and in Reid's four season has allowed 19.1, 17.6, 17.9 and 19.4 PPG. New England: Sure, Edelman's loss hurts but hasn't Tom Brady consistently been great under almost all circumstances? The addition of deep-threat WR Brandin Cooks from the Saints plus a now-healthy Gronk will surely give him ample targets. Defensively, the Patriots allowed a league-low 250 points last year (15.6 per) and have three all-pros from a year ago in Devin McCourty, Malcolm Butler and Dont'a Hightower. The pick: The Pats, including the postseason, were 16-3 ATS last season and enter 2017 having lost only four regular season home games since the 2014 season. However, the Chiefs have gone 12-7 ATS as underdogs under Reid plus open the 2017 on a six-game road winning streak from 2016. Take the points and make the Chiefs a 10* play. |
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09-07-17 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland's 14-game winning streak has helped them all but run away and hide in the AL Central at 83-56, leaving the 72-67 Tins and the 69-69 Royals battling for a wild card spot. The Twins currently hold down the No. 2 AL wild card spot, while the Royals are one of SIX teams lurking behind Minnesota, no more than three games behind (Royals are 2 1/2 back). The two division rivals open a pivotal four-game series on Thursday in Kansas City. The Royals return home off a 4-2 road trip, while the Twins come to KC after losing two of three at home to the Royals last weekend, before opening the new week by losing two of three at Tampa Bay. The pitching matchup: Kyle Gibson (9-10 & 5.33 ERA) gets the nod for Minnesota and Sam Gaviglio (3-5 & 4.62 ERA) for KC. Gibson tossed six scoreless innings in a 17-0 rout of the Royals last Friday, his third consecutive win. He's allowed only three runs over 19 2/3 innings during his winning streak (1.37 ERA), dropping his ERA below 5.40 for the first time this season! He's pitched reasonably well against KC in his career, posting a 6-4 record and 3.53 ERA in 14 starts (1team is 10-4). Gaviglio was claimed off waivers from Seattle last week and will be thrust into a big spot in his Royals debut. He makes his first start in the majors since losing four straight starts with the Mariners from June 24-July 18 (allowed 17 ERs over 23 innings in that span for a 6.65 ERA). He will be seeking his first win since beating the Twins in Minnesota on June 14 (his only career start vs. the Twins), although note that Gaviglio surrendered three HRs in that win. The pick: I'm not sure what KC may have seen in Gaviglio in claiming off waivers? I see a 6.65 ERA in his last four starts while with the Mariners. As for Gibson, he owns a 1.61 WHIP and .300 BAA to go along with his 5.33 ERA on the season for the Twins. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-07-17 | Phillies v. Nationals -162 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals come off a three-game sweep at Miami, putting them on the fast track to their fourth NL East title in six years (currently 18 games up on the Marlins). The Nats welcome Philadelphia for a four-game series beginning tonight, in what will be a season-high 10-game homestand. The Phillies have been going nowhere most of the season and remain owners of MLB's worst record at 53-86, 32 games back of the Nats. The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (10-10 & 3.72 ERA) goes for Philadelphia and Tanner Roark (11-9 & 4.48 ERA) for Washington. Nola was shelled for the third time in four outings on Saturday, allowing six runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 10-9 loss at Miami. In losing three of those four outings, he has allowed 19 runs on 31 hits over 23 1/3 innings for a 7.33 ERA. Nola is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in eight career outings against the Nationals (team is 2-6). Roark comes in pitching well, having delivered quality starts in seven of his last nine outings. Roark owns a 4-4 record and 3.46 ERA in 13 career starts versus Philadelphia (team is 6-7). The pick: The Phillies are a woeful 25-49 on the road and while Roark's career record is not all that impressive against Philadelphia, look a little closer. He was 3-0 with an 0.79 ERA in five starts against the Phillies in 2016 and while he has three no-decisions vs. Philly in 2017, he owns a 2.75 ERA in those games, holding the Phillies to a collective .194 batting average. Make Washington an 8* play. |
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09-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
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09-06-17 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians made it a 'lucky' 13th straight win last night, rolling over the AL-worst White Sox, 9-4. Cleveland can now match the franchise record of 14 consecutive victories (set by last season's team) when they take on Chicago in the third contest of this four-game series on Wednesday. Jose Ramirez hit two HRs in Tuesday's win (13 straight wins is the majors' longest in 2017), making him 19-for-38 with seven HRs over his last nine games. The White Sox have dropped six of their last eight and are a horrific 29 games below .500 at 54-83. The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (13-6 & 3.67 ERA) starts for Cleveland and Reynaldo Lopez (0-2 & 6.06 ERA) for Chicago. Carrasco is 3-1 over his last five outings (team is 4-1) and has allowed two runs or less in four of those starts. He is just one victory away from matching the career high he set in 2015 (14-12) and 17 strikeouts shy of his second campaign with 200. Carrasco has gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in three starts (Indians are 3-0), improving his carrer record to 5-9 with a 4.82 ERA in 20 career appearances (19 starts / team is 8-11) against Chicago. Lopez makes his fourth start of the season for the White Sox. He seeks his first win since Sept. 29, 2016, against Arizona while with the Nationals. Lopez was acquired by the White Sox last December as part of a trade that sent outfielder Adam Eaton to Washington. He was called up from Triple-A on Aug. 11 and placed on the disabled list due to a strained back eight days later. Lopez was reinstated Friday and took the 3-1 loss that night against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing three runs, five hits and a walk while striking out a season-high seven over six innings. The pick: Cleveland has outscored opponents 93-25 during its winning streak, has won 17 of its past 19 games away from Progressive Field (9-0 on its current 11-game road trip that ends Thursday) and the Indians now lead the AL Central by 11 games over the Twins. Cleveland prices are now 'sky-high' but I'll look to the Under to be an 8* play. |
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09-06-17 | Brewers v. Reds -151 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs have opened the week with back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh, leaving the 'door wide open' for the Brewers, who traveled to Cincinnati to play the last-place Reds (NL Central) for a three-game series. However, it's been "Opportunity Lost" for the Brewers, who lost a 5-4 squeaker on Monday and then fell again last night, 9-3. Staff ace Zach Davies did his job (allowed two runs, one earned, over 5 2/3 innings) but four relievers allowed seven runs over 2 1/3 innings. Scooter Gennett's three-run HR (8th inning) was the decisive blow in Tuesday's victory for the 60-79 Reds, who will now go for a three-game sweep of the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon. Milwaukee enters this contest 3 1/2 games behind first-place Chicago in the NL Central and 2 1/2 back of Colorado for the second NL wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Matt Garza (6-8 & 4.77 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Luis Castillo (2-7 & 3.32 ERA) for Cincinnati. Garza was scheduled to pitch Sunday versus Washington but had that start skipped in the wake of another rocky outing, in which he gave up six runs (three earned) and walked five in 3 1/3 innings against St. Louis on Aug. 29. Garza has been OK at home (he's 5-3 with a 3.92 ERA and the team 7-5) but on the road, it's been another story. Garza is 1-5 over nine starts (team is 2-7) with a 5.81 ERA. Garza overcame five walks to beat the Reds with 5 1/3 innings of four-run ball (three earned) on Aug. 13 but is just 5-5 with a 4.74 ERA in 16 starts against Cincinnati all-time (teams are 8-8). Castillo owns a respectable 3.32 ERA on the season but his win-less drought reached six starts (he's 0-3 but the Reds are 3-3) in a no-decision at Pittsburgh this past Friday, when he lasted only four innings and gave up two runs on three hits. He was a hard-luck loser in a 1-0 setback to Pittsburgh in his previous outing, tying his season high with nine strikeouts and yielding one run on three hits in seven innings. He also had nine strikeouts versus Milwaukee on June 28, his lone start against the Brewers (0-0 with a 3.17 ERA in game the Reds won). The pick: Garza had that breakout season at Tampa Bay back in 2010 (15-10) but in seven-plus seasons since leaving the Rays, has won 10 games just once, pitching for the Cubs, Rangers and now Brewers. Since the beginning of 2015, his ERA is a bloated 5.05. As noted above, it's 5.81 in 2017 in nine road starts, so why trust Garza here? Meanwhile, in 14 starts in 2017, Castillo owns a 3.32 ERA, has allowed a modest 60 hits in 81 1/3 innings plus owns an opponents BA of .208. Make the Reds an 8*! |
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09-05-17 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros were just 10-17 from Aug. 1-30, but have now scored 35 runs on 46 hits during their five-game winning streak, after they opened a 10-game road trip witha 6-2 win last night in Seattle. Houston owns the American League's best record (84-53), as well as a commanding 13 1/2-game lead in the NL West. Seattle has now dropped six of its last nine contests and sits three games behind Minnesota for the AL's second wild-card berth plus has three teams between themselves and the Twins..
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09-05-17 | Nationals -160 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Nationals won 7-2 last night in Miami over the Marlins, as Giancarlo Stanton's 53rd HR of the season (sixth in 17 games this season vs. Washington) was not nearly enough for Miami. The NL East-leading Nationals stand at 83-54 through Labor Day and while the Dodgers (92-45) and Astros (just barely at 84-53) own better record than the Nats, Washington's 16-game lead is the largest of any in MLB. The Marlins clearly have zero chance to catch Washington and the team is starting to lose touch in the NL wild card race as well, falling six games back with two teams between the Marlins and that second-wild card team (currently, Colorado). The pitching matchup: This three-game series continues tonight with Stephen Strasburg (11-4 & 2.90 ERA) going for the Nats and Odrisamer Despaigne (0-2 & 4.13 ERA) for the Marlins. Strasburg comes into this game having thrown 15 scoreless innings over his last two starts and has posted a stellar 1.35 ERA over his last seven outings, a stretch interrupted by about a three-week stay on the DL. Strasburg is 14-7 with a 3.26 ERA in 27 career starts versus the Marlins (Nats are 18-9). Despaigne is making his fourth start for the Marlins in 2017 (three in a row now), after lasting only four innings in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia last time out. Despaigne is 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in five career appearances (one start / 0-1 & 21.00 ERA!) against the Nationals. The pick: Strasburg is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in two starts against Miami this season (both in Washington) but he 's been a better pitcher on the road this season, going 7-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 12 road starts (Nats are 9-3). Miami actually won six of the first 11 meetings of 2017 against Washington but Monday's win was the Nats' sixth in a row over the Marlins. Miami has Stanton but Washington has TOO much for the Marlins (note: Stanton was hit-less in four at-bats last Wednesday against Strasburg). Make the Nats a 10* play. |
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09-05-17 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays opened the 2017 season 2-11 and by the end of April, sat at 8-17. Toronto has never recovered from its poor start. The team which has appeared in each of the last two ALCS matchups beat the Red Sox 7-2 in Boston on Monday but through Labor Day, the Blue Jays are 64-74 (that's 56-57 since May 1). Toronto has fallen 13 games back in the AL East and while the deficit is about half of that in the wild card race (7 1/2 games back of the Twins), the Jays would have to first climb over SIX teams before challenging Minnesota for that second wild card spot. Boston's loss was its eighth time in 12 contests and saw the team's lead in the American League East shrink to 2 1/2 games over the Yankees, who just took three of four from the Red Sox. The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (7-8 & 5.23 ERA) will start for Toronto and Eduardo Rodriguez (4-5 & 4.40 ERA) for Boston. Estrada has hardly been sharp in his last two starts (nine ERs allowed on 15 hits over 11 innings for a 7.36 ERA) but with the benefit of 21 runs of support, he's won them both to reach 7-8 on the season. He does own 156 strikeouts over 156 1/3 innings but he's also surrendered 26 homers in his 28 starts. Estrada is 3-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Boston (teams are 4-6). Rodriguez took the loss in each of his last two starts (allowed five runs in both outings) and is win-less in his last 10 outings with four defeats during that stretch (team is 3-7). Rodriguez is 1-3 with a 6.15 ERA in seven appearances (six starts / teams are 1-5) against Toronto. The pick: Toronto has all but been relegated to playing the spoiler role in September but that's just what the Jays did on Labor Day with 14 hits, including four HRs. Most of Boston’s problems have been on the mound in its current rough patch, as it has surrendered at least five runs in eight of the team's last 12 contests. Anyone truly expect Rodriguez to turn that roaund with his and 10 ERs allowed on 17 hits (three HRs) over 11 2/3 innings of his last two starts (7.71 ERA)? Note that Estrada has faced Boston twice in 2017 and while he's left with two no-decisions, he also owns a 1.74 ERA in those two starts. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Toronto an 8* play. |
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09-04-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -149 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The "unbeatable" LA Dodgers suddenly look very 'human,' as Labor Day dawns. The team opens a three-game home series with the Arizona Diamondbacks having lost eight of its last nine games (lone win came 1-0, in Clayton Kershaw's Sep. 1 return from the DL). The Dodgers opened last week by getting swept in Arizona by these same D'backs, who have now solidified their position atop the National League wild-card standings by winning 10 in a row (73-58 D'backs have opened a 6 1/2-game lead on the Rockies). After scoring 21 runs in a three-game sweep last week, Arizona has evened its season series with LA at 8-8, while outscoring the Dodgers 78-66. The pick: I must admit I'm somewhat leery of Hill but this LA team is just too good to continue struggling. After all, while Arizona checks in at 34-35 on the road in 2017, LA is 52-16 at Dodger Stadium, outscoring opponents 5.13-to-3.09 RPG. Make LA a 10* play. |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee -3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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09-04-17 | Astros v. Mariners +143 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Hurricane Harvey forced the Astros to move a three-game home series with the Rangers to Tropicana Field, the home of the TB Rays. Houston llsyt the first two games of that series but salavaged the finale, 5-1 on Thursday. The team returned to Houston for a three-game series with the Mets, postponing Friday's first game, then played a Saturday doubleheader and a single game on Sunday. The Astros swept the Mets and will now take a four-game winning streak (as well as the AL's best overall record of 83-53) when they begin a 10-game trek with the first of three games against the Seattle Mariners on Monday. The Astros were just 10-17 from Aug. 1-30, but have now scored 29 runs on 46 hits during their four-game winning streak. Seattle 'stopped the bleeding' by opening its nine-game homestand with a much-needed three-game sweep of the A's this past weekend. On Labor Day morn, the Mariners are 2 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the AL’s second wild card spot. The pitching matchup; Dallas Keuchel (11-3 & 2.91 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Erasmo Ramirez (5-5 & 4.43 ERA) will get the nod for Seattle. Keuchel struggled in his last start against Texas (at Tropicana Field), allowing six runs on five hits and three walks in six innings of a loss. However, that game followed three straight quality starts. Still, the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner has not been the same pitcher since returning from the disabled list on July 28, going 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA in seven starts (Astros are 3-4). He is 6-5 with a 2.82 ERA in 13 career games (12 starts / team is 6-6) versus Seattle. Ramirez takes the mound looking for his fifth straight quality start after permitting two runs over six innings in a 4-0 loss at Baltimore on Tuesday. He has given up only six ERs in 24 innings ( ERA) over his last four starts, yet has earned just one victory. Ramirez is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in seven career appearances (four starts / teams are 2-2 ) against Houston. The pick: Seattle isn't going to catch Houston in the American League West race (trail by 14 1/2 games) but the Mariners are still desperately trying to stay in the postseason hunt and the team's three-game sweep of the A's on Sunday pulled them within 2 1/2 games of the Minnesota Twins. Keuchel was 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA prior to the break but as noted above, his second half has not measured up. Meanwhile, since being re-acquired by the Mariners in a late-July deal, Ramirez owns a 3.62 ERA in six outings. Each of his past four outings were quality starts and I expect a fifth one here, making Seattle an 8* play. |
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09-04-17 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-12 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Cubs returned from the All Star break to go 14-3, catching and passing the Brewers in the NL Central. Chicago did hit a small rough patch right after that but now, even with a Sunday 5-1 loss to the Braves, owns a run of 12 wins in their last 16 games. Chicago opens a four-game series Monday in Pittsburgh with an overall 32-16 since the break and a 3 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. Pittsburgh made a little 'noise' for itself right after the All Star break by winning seven of eight (reaching 49-48) but since sitting at 58-58 after play on Aug. 11, has gone 7-14 to sit seven games under .500 at 65-72. Chicago's three-game sweep of Pittsburgh last week at Wrigley Field by a combined 27-5, effectively took the Pirates out of consideration for a shot at the postseason. The Pirates have fallen 10 1/2 games back in the NL Central and are 7 1/2 games back of the Rockies, who own the final wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (14-8 & 3.36 ERA) has easily been Chicago's pitching star since the break and opens this series, opposed by Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl (6-10 & 4.54 ERA). Arrieta is 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA since the break, with eight quality starts in nine outings. He takes the mound having won his last four decisions. Arrieta beat the Pirates 4-1 n his last outing (Sep 29), allowing two hits and two walks over six scoreless frames. That leaves him 11-5 with a 2.81 ERA in 20 career starts against the Pirates (teams are 14-6). In contrast to Arrieta, Kuhl has lost two straight starts and three of his last four, failing to get through six innings in any of those four outings. Kuhl lost to the Cubs last time out (opposite Arrieta) and is 0-4 with an 11.07 ERA in six career meetings (team is 2-4). The pick: Kuhl and Arrieta opposed each other last Tuesday in Chicago, with each pitching five shutout innings before Chicago scored three in the six of a 4-1 Cubs win. Hard to ignore Arrieta's 1.59 ERA since the break but also note that Kuhl owns a 3.44 ERA over his past 12 starts. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-03-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 7 | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The NYY Yankees lost 10-0 at home to the Red Sox on Friday but rebounded with a 5-1 Saturday win. The rubber match of this three-game series is set for Sunday night (on ESPN) and New York needs a win, not only to stay within striking distance of Boston in the AL East (a win and the Yanks will be 3 1/2 back but a loss drops them 5 1/2 back) but the Yankees also need to be very much aware that the Twins are just one game back in the battle for the top wild card spot plus New York is only a modest 2 1/2 games clear of the AL playoff 'cut line.' The Red Sox are heading back to Boston for a nine-game homestand beginning Monday and you know a 5 1/2 game lead would be much sweeter than a 3 1/2 ga.me lead. The pitching matchup: Boston will send ace Chris Sale (15-6 & 2.77 ERA) to the mound in this series finale, as the Yankees counter with Luis Severino (11-6 & 3.14 ERA), who I believe most regard as New York's best starter in 2017. Sale ended a three-start win-less streak with a dominating effort at Toronto this past Tuesday, when he struck out 11 without walking a batter and scattered three hits over seven scoreless innings of a 3-0 Boston win. He may be the AL's Cy Young front-runner, as he leads the majors with 264 strikeouts and is 10 away from matching his career high, set with the Chicago White Sox in 2015. Sale owns a 1.69 career ERA against the Yankees but is a modest 4-3, plus his teams are only 5-6 in his 11 all-time starts against the Yanks. Severino is fourth in the AL with 192 strikeouts and struck out nine over 6 2/3 innings against Cleveland on Monday but could not come away with a win. He owns a 1.10 WHIP and .220 BAA in 2017 but the Yanks are a modest 15-11 in his starts, giving him a moneyline mark of minus-$5 (you read that correctly!). Severino is just 1-4 with a 4.98 ERA over six career starts vs. Boston (team is 2-4) and his worst start of the season came at home against Boston on Aug. 12, when he was ripped for 10 runs -- eight earned -- over 4 1/3 innings. |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M +4.5 v. UCLA | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA was ranked 16th in the 2016 preseason poll and opened its season at College Station with a game against unranked Texas A&M. The Aggies came away with a 31-24 upset in OT (the Bruins were favored by 3 1/2 points), a win which jump-started A&M's season. Texas A&M would open 6-0, rising to No. 6 in the AP poll before losing 33-14 at No. 1 Alabama. A&M's season unraveled from there, finishing 8-5 after a 33-28 Texas Bowl loss to Kansas State. UCLA never recovered from its season-opening loss to A&M. Things went from bad to worse when starting QB Josh Rosen suffered shoulder and leg injuries at Arizona State in a 23-20 loss. He never returned to the field of play and UCLA would finish 4-8, its first losing season under Jim More (he had led UCLA to a 37-16 record from 2012-1015). UCLA and Texas A&M meet in a season opener for the second consecutive season on Sunday, this time at the Rose Bowl. Neither team is ranked and both will be looking for strong starts after poor finishes last season (the Aggies lost four of their final five games, while the Bruins dropped six of their last seven). Texas A&M: Former Aggies QB Trevor Knight is now trying to claim a roster spot with the NFL's Arizona Cardinals and the Aggies have yet to name a starting QB as Jake Hubenak, Nick Starkel, and Kellen Mond have continued to battle to earn the starting nod. A bigger loss is DE Myles Garrett, who was the NFL's overall No. 1 draft pick in April (Browns). He was a huge part in Rosen being pressure all game last season (Rosen was sacked five times and threw three INTs). Two key offensive performers do return, sophomore RB Trayveon Williams (1,057 yards 6.8 YPC and eight TDs) plus WR Christian Kirk for his junior year. He caught 83 passes last season (nine TDs), after making 80 receptions as a freshman. The defense returns seven starters but obviously can't replace Garrett. UCLA: Naturally, the return of Rosen is a key for the Bruins. Expect him to be eager to play well after last year's injuries preventing him from improving on his 3,670-yard, 23-TD effort as a freshman (he garnered Heisman Trophy conversation at this time last year). A MUST for UCLA will be improving a rushing attack which averaged a pathetic 84.2 YPG on 2.9 YPC to rank 127th in the nation. In Mora's first four years in LA, his Bruin teams had averaged about 194 YPG on the ground.. The pick: It would be easy to say UCLA here, based strictly on the revenge motive. However, Mora replaced some of his top offensive coaches after last year's disappointing campaign but lo and behold, Noel Mazzone (former OC at UCLA) and former backup QB Jerry Neuheisel, are both now employed by A&M. Kevin Sumlin opens his sixth season at A&M and he owns quite a record against non-SEC teams in his tenure, going 18-2 SU. I'll take any points available and make A&M a 10* play. |
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09-03-17 | Blue Jays +119 v. Orioles | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orioles came into their four-game series with the Blue Jays on a seven-game winning streak. That streak was snapped with Toronto's 11-8 win on Thursday. Baltimore did rebound with a 1-0 (13 inn.) victory on Friday but the Baltimore bats remained quiet again on Saturday, as the Orioles fell 7-2. After averaging 6.03 RPG in August, Baltimore has totaled just three in the first two games of September and are now 2 1/2 games back of the Twins for the AL's final wild card spot. With Saturday's win, the Blue Jays have put themselves in a position to snap a streak of four straight losing series. Toronto has fallen 8 1/2 games back in the wild card race and its playoff hopes have been all but dashed, as they have SIX teams between themselves and the Twins! The pitching matchup: Brett Anderson (2-3 & 6.83 ERA) will be back on the mound for Toronto on Sunday, after making his Toronto debut this past Tuesday. Taking the mound for Baltimore will be the struggling Chris Tillman (1-7 & 7.91 ERA). Anderson began the season with the Chicago Cubs before being waived on August 1, after which he was signed to a minor-league deal by Toronto. He was a tough-luck loser against the Red Sox, allowing just one run on six hits over 5 2/3 innings in losing 3-0 to Boston and Chris Sale. Anderson is seeing Baltimore for the first time since 2010 (while with Oakland), in what has been his lone career appearance against the Orioles. Tillman allowed six runs over 5 1/3 innings to Seattle on Monday (lucky to get a no-decision), although Baltimore won 7-6. That outing means he'll take the mound this afternoon still searching for his first win since May 7 (he's 0- 7 and the team 5-11 in those 16 starts). He had a quality start against the Blue Jays back on May 19, but did not factor in the decision while allowing three runs in six innings. In his career, he's 5-10 with a 5.12 ERA against Toronto, with the Orioles going 11-15. The pick: Sure, the Blue Jays are all but out of wild card consideration and it's difficult to be too confident in Anderson but how can one back Tillman. He as not won since his first start of the year (back on May 7) plus owns a 1.95 WHIP and .332 BAA to go along with his 7.91 ERA. Make Toronto an 8* play. |