The set-up: LSU won’t have coach Will Wade on the sidelines Friday because he’s suspended, but I still think the Tigers can take care of a tired Gators team, which enters off a hard-fought 66-50 win over Arkansas just last night. Note though that Florida is a terrible 1-8 vs. AP Top 25 teams. And guess what? The Gators one win was an upset 82-77 OT victory over a then No. 13 LSU. It’s payback time! The Tigers come in in on top form as well, winning the SEC regular-season title outright with an 80-59 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS win, while Florida is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a SU win. I like LSU to respond with a resounding victory here. Lay the points.

10* play on LSU

The set-up: I think the visitors could/should in fact be much larger favs here. The Predators come in off a 3-2 loss to the suddenly surging Ducks, while LA posted a 3-2 road win over Anaheim. If recent history is any precedence, then the Preds have to be loving their chances today as they’ve already taken both meetings with the Kings this season. Nashville averages 2.9 goals and it allows 2.7. Predators’ goaltender Pekka Rinne has a 2.54 GAA to this point. LA is just 13-17-2 at home this year. The Kings average 2.3 goals and the allow 3.2. Goalie Jon Quick has a terrible 3.28 GAA this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 1-6 in its last seven at home, while the Predators are 4-1 in their last five when playing on one days rest. I think Rinne out duels Quick. Lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: Alabama needs a victory to keep its NCAA Tourney hopes alive, but even that big motivational factor won’t be enough here in my opinion. Alabama is the No. 10 seed and it finished 8-10 in league play, losing six of eight down the stretch. Over a three-game losing streak to end the year it’s averaged 15.7 turnovers. Ole Miss also needs a victory here to cement is NCAA spot. Kermit Davis is in his first season as coach and he ended the regular season with a much needed 73-68 victory to snap a three-game slide. From a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one favors Ole Miss, as these two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ole Miss is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Alabama is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. the conference and 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. above .500 teams. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s a quick turn-around from day-to-day during the Confernece tournaments. Virginia Tech took advantage of a tired Miami team, which pulled out a victory the day before to advance. Now the Seminoles look to return the favor here in the third round of the ACC. FSU has a huge advantage here with the “double bye” and I believe it’ll be more than enough to turn the tide in favor of the Seminoles today. Note that FSU posted a 73-64 OT win over the Hokies at home ten days ago.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, while VT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Play on the Seminoles.

10* play

The set-up: The Grizzlies beat the Magic 105-97 at home on Sunday, but I think they’ll struggle on the road in this non-conference East coast matchup. The Hawks have been playing better of late and they’ll be looking to take advantage here and to build off their 128-116 home win over New Orleans on Sunday. Note that this is also a “revenge” game for Atlanta, after it fell 131-117 on the road in the first matchup back on October 19th. After three straight victories, I think the Grizz stumble in their first game on the road. The Hawks broke a three-game slide with their last win and they’re out for revenge as well here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is still just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Atlanta is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 non-conference contests. I think Atlanta is the correct call. 

10* play

The set-up: These are two terrible teams, but I think Georgia is worse. The Bulldogs finished 11-20. Georgia lost its final two games of the regular season, posting a combined 85 points of offense on 25.8 percent shooting in those defeats. The “revenge factor” is always something I take into account, but sometimes it can be an over-rated angle. And that’s the case here I think. Missouri destroyed Georgia 64-39 in Athens just last week and I’m expecting a similar sort of beatdown here once it’s all said and done.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight vs. sub .500 teams and 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 neural site affairs, while Georgia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 50 points or less in its previous contest and only 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: The Blazers broke a two-game slide by knocking off the red hot Suns in their last game, while the Clippers come in off a highly satisfying victory at home over the Celtics just last night. LA has now won five straight, but at this time of year, playing the second game of a back-to-back is significant. And I think it’s going to be the difference maker here, as I look for the slightly more rested Blazers to have more energy. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while LA is just 2-6 ATS this season as a home dog and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. I look for Blazers to take advantage. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: These teams enter off poor campaigns. The Demon Deacons were 4-14 in ACC action, while Miami finished 5-13 in conference play. Last year both teams were ousted from the Conference tournament after the first game, but this season one of the two will survive to see the next round. These teams played two games and they split those, with one going “over” and the other going “under.” But during Wake Forest’s three-game losing skid, its failed to score 60 points, most recently falling 65-57 to FSU. The Hurricanes closed out the regular season with an 84-70 loss to VT. Two inconsistent, yet hungry teams collide and I believe that this will help in resulting in a tighter, lower-scoring defensive battle. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wake Forest has seen the total go “under” the number in 13 of its last 19 as an underdog, while Miami Florida has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 13 as a neutral court favorite or pick. This number is high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: Saint Mary’s is on the bubble after its five game win streak ended in a season finale loss to Gonzaga. The Gaels are going to have to make it to the WCC finals if they want to make it to the big dance. The Toreros have been playing terrific, coming in having won four straight, but this has been a difficult matchup for them. In fact, the Gaels took both regular season meetings easily. I’m throwing the “double revenge” factor out the window here. This one doesn’t mean more to the Toreros than it does to the Gaels. San Diego has been playing well, but I think the “better” team comes out on top again. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 after having won three of its last four games, while St. Mary’s is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a loss by ten points or more. With a chance to meet the Bulldogs in the final and to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, I look for the high-powered Gaels to once again blow the doors off the Toreros. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Edmonton has quietly been playing well over the last three weeks, going 6-2-2 in its last ten. New York has been horrible all year and it’s been struggling of late by going just 3-3-4 in its last ten. The Rangers are now out of wildcard contention, while the Oilers still have a slim hope. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the home side and it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Edmonton is 4-0 in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while New York is a horrible 8-22 in its last 30 after allowing two goals or less in its previous game. Lay the price, expect a blowout victory.

10* play

The set-up: These teams can still score a lot of points and this total can stay below this sky-high number, and that’s exactly what I expect to see. This number is just a tad high in my estimation. The Kings come in off a hard-fought 102-94 road win over New York, while Washington fell 135-130 in OT at Minnesota on Saturday. Note that these teams played in Sacramento on October 26th and the Kings posted the 116-112 victory. I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of 11 already this year as a road underdog of six points or less, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: Plain old common sense is the basis to this particular selection. These teams played in Vegas last week and the Knights posted the 2-1 win. Calgary is now one game behind Nashville for the Central division lead, but the Predators lost last night, giving the Flames an opportunity to re-gain it. They also play with revenge. They also catch a Las Vegas side that enters off a highly satisfying 6-2 win in Vancouver just last night. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Las Vegas is just 10-14 (-8.4 units) this season after scoring four or more goals in its previous game, while Calgary is a money-making 19-12 (+4.5 units) revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. Lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: This is a big game. The Liberty Flames take on the Lipscomb Bison for the Atlantic Sun Championship in this one. Lipscomb enters off a 78-55 win over New Jersey Tech, getting 22 points, nine boards and five assists from Garrison Matthews. Liberty comes to the Championship game off a 71-63 victory over North Florida. Scottie James provied 24 loins and nine boards. 

The pick: But the numbers support the Flames today, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning SU records, while Lipcomb is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a blowout win of ten points or more vs. a conference opponent. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Therefore, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Hornets come in off a tougher than expected 1-point win over the Wizards at home just last night. The victory broke a three-game slide. Clearly it’s not going to get any easier facing the dangerous Bucks, who broke a two-game skid with a blowout win over a tired Pacers team last time out. The Hornets have struggled for the most part this season, but they won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Bucks on the other hand appear to be scuffling late and I think they’ll get caught looking past their lowly opponent in a small way tonight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 12.5 to 18 points range, while Milwaukee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the same points range. This spread is too large in my opinion. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: I base my picks on many different things. This one is based on scheduling and the revenge factor. Carolina lost at home to Winnipeg just last night and I think it comes in dog tired in the second game of the back-to-back at the end of the season. The Predators play with revenge here after falling 6-3 in Carolina earlier in the season. From a situational point of view, there’s no doubt that this one sets up great for the home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Carolina is just 12-13 (-2 units) this year vs. teams with winning records, while the Predators are 67-45 (+7.7 units) the last two seasons revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 3-1 (+1.3 units) this year when playing with three or more days rest. This line should be higher. Lay it.

10* play

The set-up: This is a big game. The Blue Devils will be without Zion Williamson in this one, but they’re out for revenge after falling to UNC earlier in the year. UNC won’t be rolling over obviously as it comes in on top form having won six straight. Despite what happens in this one, each is expected to make a deep run in the upcoming tournament and both have a legitimate shot at winning the upcoming conference tournament. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up great as a classic high-scoring “shootout.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Duke has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten as an underdog (including in both games this season,) while UNC has seen the total soar “over” in three of its last four as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: Denver broke a three-game slide with a win over the Lakers and it plays with revenge here after the Warriors drilled them at home earlier in the season. Denver catches the defending champs scuffling, as they’ve dropped five of their last eight, including an embarrassing blowout loss to the struggling Celtics on their own floor, a game in which they posted a measly 95 points. The Warriors on the ropes, but if there’s on thing this team has done over the years is show it’s mettle when up against adversity. And here’s the perfect test and opponent to do that against. The Nuggets will be pushing the pace from start to finish as they look to avenge the earlier loss as well. So from an overall “situational” stand point, in my professional opinion this one absolutely sets up great as a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Denver has seen the total go “over” the number in nine of its last 11 when trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while GS has seen the total fly “over” in both games that it’s played in this year after playing to three or more consecutive “unders.” This number is low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: The Hawks had won two straight before a tight 86-85 OT loss at Rhode Island on Tuesday. The Hawks though will look to bounce back here against VCU, which has already earned the outright A-10 championship and which has won 11 in a row. St. Joe’s has struggled at VCU over the years (0-3), but they won their last road game 66-52 at Fordham on February 27th. Even if VCU stumbles in the conference tournament, they’ve still done enough to win an at large bid for the NCAA tourney. With everything already wrapped up nicely, I think the home side has a small mental letdown here. Outright victory? Probably not, but the stage is set for a competitive affair. 

The pick: Additionally note that St. Joseph’s is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss by three points or less, while VCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: UCF plays its first game as a ranked team in eight years. The No. 20 ranked Bearcats come to town in control of their own destiny. If they win tonight and then again at home vs. Houston, they’ll take the AAC title and the No. 1 seed on the tourney. The Bearcats are playing well on both ends of the floor and enter on a five-game win streak. UCF comes in off a big time 69-64 win over No. 8 Houston on Saturday and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here and continue its recent form. UCF has won three straight since its loss at Cincinnati and now it’s time for a little revenge.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams with an above .600 road record, while Cincinnati just 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Look for the Knights to exact that revenge.

10* play

The set-up: Columbus comes in off a 2-1 shootout win at New Jersey, but I think it’ll come up short here in this difficult road venue. Jackets’ net minder Sergei Bobrovsky is 11-13 with a 2.93 GAA lifetime vs. Pittsburgh. Overall Columbus averages 3.13 GPG and allows 2.77. The Pens though come in under the radar here in my opinion. At least in the stand point that the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing how well Pittsburgh is playing currently, entering having won three of its last four. Pens’ goalie Matt Murray is 7-2 with a 2.90 GAA lifetime vs. Columbus.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Columbus is just 13-14 (-4.2 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Pittsburgh is 6-2 in its last eight home games off a win and as a favorite in the -115 to -135 range. Great value on the home side here.

10* play on the Pittsburgh Penguins 

The set-up: St. Louis will be eager to return to form after a 4-1 loss to Dallas on Saturday. The Blues have had a couple nights off to prepare for this one and to get back on track after losing three of their last four. The putrid Ducks earned a 2-1 win over Colorado on Sunday to end a five-game slide, but an immediate return to mediocrity seems imminent. 

The pick: Despite their recent scuffling form, the Blues come in confident by winning seven of their last ten away from friendly confines. The Ducks can’t say the same thing though as they’re just 3-10 in their last 13 in front of the home town crowd. I’m laying the price and expecting a complete blowout from the “better” and “hungrier” team.

10* PLAY

The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a confidence building win over Orlando just last night and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here as well in this favorable matchup. Chicago has shown some promise for the future over the last month, but it comes in off back-to-back losses to the Pacers and Hawks. I think these teams are now firmly moving in opposite directions.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back on the road as a favorite in the -3 to -7 points range. Lay the points and expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: The Bonnies won’t be rolling over here. St. Bonaventure enters having won six straight. Davidson has alternated wins and losses over its last five and it enters off a win over Fordham most recently. The Bonnies remain in contention for a double-bye in the conference tournament. Note that St. Bonaventure has held seven of its last eight opponents to 60 points or less. Davidson won’t want to have a letdown here either, but I think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle between the home side and the surging visitors. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bonnies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog or pick, while Davidson is just 2-4 ATS this season off a home win against a conference rival. Grab the points and expect a war.

10* play

The set-up: Houston is one of the hottest teams in the West and Toronto is one of the hottest teams in the East. These two surging non-conference opponents go head-to-head North of the border on Tuesday night and in my opinion, points will be plentiful. The Rockets come in having won five straight, most recently destroying Boston 115-104 on the road. The Raptors had won nine of ten before an OT loss in Detroit in their latest action. Houston averages 113.4 PPG and it allows 111.1. The Raptors average 114.2 PPG and they allow 108.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you as well, but Houston has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 20 non-conference games, while Toronto has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last 11 revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent when it was the fav. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: The Clippers are 35-29 and the Lakers are 30-33. The Clippers are looking at the playoffs right now, while the Lakers are on the outside looking in. LeBron James and company come off a horrible loss to the lowly Suns and they’re going to be out for redemption as they try to redeem themselves for the LA faithful. The Clippers average 113.9 PPG and they allow 113.7. The Lakers come in having lost four of five since the All Star game. The Lakers average 112.4 PPG and they allow 113.9. 

The pick: It’s now or never for the tenth placed Lakers. Another division loss here and it could be too deep a hole for even The King to climb out of this time. I expect the “home side” to play with extreme desperation. Take it for what you will as well but the Clippers are just 7-10 ATS this year as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Lakers are 9-3 ATS vs. the division. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Two teams which would have to run the board to make the playoffs collide in this non-conference matchup on Monday night. While that’s clearly not going to happen, each remains competitive and I believe that trend carries over here and contributes to a higher-scoring affair. The Oilers off a 4-0 road win over Columbus. After losing 11 of 12 the Oilers have won four of five. Oilers’ goaltender Mikko Koskinen is just 8-12 with a 3.07 GAA on the road. Buffalo enters off a 5-2 road loss in Toronto. The Sabres are 13-27 in their last 40 games. Buffalo averages 3.13 goals and allows 3.03 at home this year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Edmonton has seen the total go “over” the number in three of four after shutting out its opponent in its previous game, while Buffalo has seen the total go “over” in 11 of its last 16 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous outing. This number is low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: The Cavs are an amazing team and they are atop the ACC standing with two games remaining. Syracuse is 10-6 in league play and I expect it to keep this one competitive until the final moments. The Orange have pretty much secured a spot in the big dance because of their recent form, but they clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas at this point. The Cavs most recently beat Pittsburgh 73-49. Overall the Cavs average 121.8 points per 100 possessions and limit teams to just 85.9 points per 100 possessions. Syracuse averages 102.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 92.7 per 100 possessions. 

The pick: The Cavs have been money in the bank for bettors this year, dominating in almost every single ATS statistical category there is. That’s why it’s important to note that Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two straight covers as a double digit favorite. As mentioned off the top, I don’t expect the Orange to simply roll over (note that they’re a money-making 5-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games.) Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Two teams hungry for victories collide in this high-profile non-conference matchup on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. The Rockets come in off a 121-118 home win over Miami, while Boston broke a four-game losing streak with a 107-96 home win over Washington. The Rockets average 113.4 PPG and they allow 111.2. The C’s average 112.1 PPG and they allow 106.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Houston has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 20 non-conference games, while Boston has seen the total go “over” in 20 of its last 33 at home and in 14 of its last 20 non-conference games. With each team expected to push the pace, I look for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

10* play

The set-up: These teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I look for those trends to continue here. The Capitals enter off a 3-1 road win over the Islanders, while the Rangers come in off a 4-2 home loss to the Canadiens. Washington is now tied atop the Metro with the Islanders after that victory, so with a chance to claim the No. 1 position completely with a win here, I believe the defending champs continue their late season push towards the playoffs. Washington is 18-14 on the road, averaging 3.22 goals and allowing 3.38 in those games. The Rangers are 16-18 at home, averaging 2.85 and allowing 2.74. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but New York is just 15-37 in its last 52 after scoring two goals or less in its previous game, while Washington is 17-6 in its last 23 after allowing two goals or less in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: Enough is enough! After three straight losses, I think the Thunder “come to play” tonight. A date vs. the “on again, off again” Spurs is just what the doctor ordered. San Antonio did break a three-game losing skid with a win at home over Detroit last time out, but if it’s shown anything this year, it’s been inconsistency in form from one game to the next. Despite not having the services of Paul George, I think that Russell Westbrook and company can take advantage. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog, while SA is just 9-13 ATS off a home victory this year. This one has upset written all over it.

10* play

The set-up: Two of the hottest teams in the league collide North of the Border Friday night and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Sure the Blazers are going to stumble at some point, but Portland has easily destroyed all of its Eastern competition since coming out of the All Star break. The Blazers come to Toronto on a five game win streak after easily dispatching the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday. Toronto bounced back from a loss to the Magic to beat Boston as well. But Portland won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note that the Blazers had lost five straight in this series before a convincing 128-122 home win on December 14th in the lone meeting so far this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game, while Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Rams come in off an 80-53 home win over George Washington on Tuesday, while Dayton posted a 72-48 road win over Massachusetts. The Rams play with revenge here though after falling 77-48 at home in the first matchup on February 9th. The Rams are currently in ninth spot, but clearly they haven’t completely given up quite yet as evidenced their last performance. The Rams would also love to play spoiler here as Dayton is currently tied for second, two games behind with three games remaining. The pressure is on and I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island 4-1 ATS in its last five revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points in, while Dayton is just 6-11 ATS as the favorite this year. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Utah comes in off a come from behind 111-105 win over the Clippers just last night and I think it’ll have difficulty mustering up enough energy to contend with the Nuggets in the thin Denver air. So far these clubs have split a pair of meetings, but the home side actually plays with revenge after dropping the last one 114-108 in Utah on January 23rd. The Jazz are 5-5 SU in the second game of back-to-backs this year, but fatigue is definitely a major factor in my opinion at this point of the season. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while Utah is a terrible 4-11 ATS in its last 15 when playing the second game of a back-to-back. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Dallas comes in focused after its 4-1 road loss to Vegas on Tuesday. LA enters off a humbling 6-1 loss to Carolina on Tuesday and I think it’ll have its hands full here as well. Stars’ goaltender Ben Bishop is a big difference maker for me in this one as he’s 19-14-2 with a 2.29 GAA this year. The Kings actually went 0-4 on their recent road trip and home ice has been anything buy “friendly” as they’re 12-15-2 overall there, including having lost nine straight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 0-6 in its last six when playing on one days rest, while Dallas is 4-1 in its last five vs. a team with a losing record and 41-20 in its last 61 following a loss of three or more goals. Great price, play on the Stars.

10* play

The set-up: At 15-13, Xavier is on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers need to string some wins together at this point. St. John’s is 20-8 overall and it’s locked into a No. 8 seed currently. From a situational stand point, there’s no question in my mind that this one “means” a lot more to the visiting side tonight. However note that Xavier enters on top form, having won four straight, most recently a 66-54 victory over Villanova as a 5.5 point underdog. The Red Storm can’t leave anything to chance either as they’ll look to avoid slipping under the .500 mark in conference play, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this “under the radar” visiting side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Xavier is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while St. John’s is only 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. Grab the points and expect this one to come right down to the wire.

10* play

The set-up: I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Villanova returns home after three straight road losses. The Wildcats are now 1.5 games behind the Golden Eagles for the conference lead. Marquette has won four in a row, but I think the stage is now set for the Golden Eagles to have a letdown. Villanova has been unbeatable at home so far, winning 13 straight and I like that trend of success to continue. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marquette just 2-3 ATS as an underdog this season, while Villanova is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. the conference and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 at home. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Washington comes to town looking to bounce back off a 119-112 home loss to Indiana, while Brooklyn comes in off an impressive 101-85 home win over the Spurs. I think the home side can carry that defensive momentum over here. The Wizards are out to atone for a shoddy defensive performance, so from a situational stand point, I think this one absolutely sets up as a lower-scoring defensive battle. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Washington has seen the total go “under” the number in three of four already this year when playing with three or more days rest, while Brooklyn has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 12 when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 230. Play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: Calgary enters off a 3-1 road win in Long Island just last night and I think the red hot visitors will keep the momentum rolling in the second game of the back to back. New Jersey comes in off a tough 2-1 home win over Montreal, but everything points to a return to mediocrity for the home side in my opinion. The Flames are sizzling with six straight wins. Calgary has given up just seven goals during its five game win skein. David Rittich gets the nod in the net for the visitors and he’s 12-6 with a  2.09 GAA on the road. The Devils earned a win last time out, but they’re still going be sitting out of the playoffs this year. New Jersey may have won four of its last six, but note that goaltender Corey Schneider is still just 4-10 with a 3.26 GAA on the year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Calgary is 7-1 in its last eight vs. the Metropolitan and 25-9 in its last 34 as the favorite, while New Jersey is just 8-20 in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Look for Rittich to be the difference maker again here. Lay the price.

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The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, I do think that the table is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. Syracuse couldn’t capitalize at home vs. a short-handed Duke team last time out, falling to 9-5 in league play after the 75-65 setback. Overall the Orange average 108.4 points per 100 possessions and they allow 92.4 points per 100 possessions. The Tar Heels average 119.2 points per 100 possessions and they allow 96.6 points per 100 possessions. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Syracuse is 5-2 ATS on the road this year and 9-5 ATS vs. conference opponents, while UNC is still only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12.5 points range. I think the Tar Heels finally have a letdown here, as they leave the back door wide open down the stretch. Grab the points.

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 The set-up: New Orleans rallied for an impressive win over LBJ and the Lakers without star player Anthony Davis in the line-up, but I think the team will have a hard time mustering up the same energy vs. their non-conference opponent today. The 76ers’ four-game win streak was snapped last time out vs. the Blazers at home and while they’ll be without their big man Joel Embiid tonight, they won’t be lacking for motivation. The 76ers average 115.3 PPG and they allow 112.3. The Pelicans on the other hand average 115.7 PPG and they allow 115. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a home favorite, while New Orleans is just 6-8 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less. This one has upset written all over it. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Oklahoma needs some victories to ensure a spot in the Tournament. The Sooners come in off a quality 69-67 win at home over Texas. The visitors play with “revenge” today after a tight 75-74 setback to Iowa State on February 4th. Since the victor Iowa State has been in a “free fall,” having dropped three games behind front runner K-State. 

The pick: Oklahoma is also 6-0-3 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams with an above .600 home record, while Iowa State is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a favorite. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points.

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The set-up: The Jets organization was devastated by a flu bug for most of February, but the team looks to have shaken that off and it’ll be out to build off its most recent 6-3 road win in Las Vegas on Friday. Arizona has won two straight, including a 3-2 victory in OT over the Canucks on Thursday, but I think the Coyotes will have their hands full in this lop-sided matchup. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg is 19-11 (+5.2 units) this year already after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest, while Arizona is just 4-8 (-3 units) this season after playing three straight road games. All signs point to a classic letdown here for the home side. Great value, play on the Jets.

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The set-up: The Spurs come in dejected, still thinking about their 120-117 road loss in Toronto on Friday. The Knicks enter off a 115-104 loss to Minnesota on Friday night. San Antonio continues to struggle away from friendly confines though during its annual “Rodeo road trip,” now just 1-5 after the setback in Canada. The margin for error is slim most nights for the Spurs, who average 112.4 PPG and who allow 111.5. 

The pick: The Knicks are in full rebuild mode, but they feature some talent and I think this is a great overall “spot” for this new look side to be competitive. Note that San Antonio is just 14-16 ATS on the road, while New York is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after a non-conference games. I’m grabbing the points.

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The set-up: Two of the top teams in the West get ready to battle and I think that points will be at a premium in the end. The Clippers enter off a 112-106 road win over Memphis, while Denver won 114-104 in Dallas on Friday. Denver has won two of three meetings between the clubs already this year, including a 121-100 home win in the most recent. I’m expecting another hard-fought and similar final combined score here as well. From situational and recent history stand points, I absolutely feel that this one sets up as more of a defensive affair this evening. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but LA has already seen the total go “under” the number in 13 of its last 19 as a road underdog, while Denver has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 12 after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games. This number is high, play the “under.” 

10* play

The set-up: The winner of this game will likely be crowned the conference regular season champion. I’m expecting this one to come right down to the wire and will therefore recommend that you grab as many points as you can. These teams are very evenly matched, as evidenced by this spread. It wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these teams, but in a game where the talent level and team numbers are so similar, I’ve always tended to grab the points in a situation like that. And that’s the situation we find ourselves in here for sure.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but MSU is 7-3 ATS on the road and a perfect 5-0 ATS this season after two or more consecutive SU home victories, while Michigan is just 3-5 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in two or more straight games. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

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The set-up: While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and revenge minded Bulls will keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. SFU plays with revenge after falling 69-60 on the road on January 19th to the Cougars. Both teams comes in off victories, but at 7-6, the Bulls are still looking to improve their standings. Houston comes in complacent after ten straight wins and I believe it leaves the back door open.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but USF is 6-1 ATS on the road this year and 5-1 ATS as a road dog or pick, while Houston is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 off a road win by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

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The set-up: Both teams come in off victories to open the second half, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Portland posted the 113-99 road win in Brooklyn, while Philly held on for a 106-102 home win over Miami. The 76ers though play with revenge this afternoon after they lost 129-95 at Portland on December 30th. The Blazers average 113.3 PPG and they allow 110.1. The 76ers average 115.7 PPG and they allow 1112.

The pick: Note though that Philadelphia is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while the visitors are still just 11-15 ATS on the road this year. I think the home side pulls away down the stretch for the convincing victory. Lay the short points.

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The set-up: There are two super hungry teams. The Jets come in having lost three straight. Winnipeg’s grip on the No. 1 spot in the Central is now down to a single game over Nashville. The Jets have been lacking a scoring punch over the last month, but Winnipeg is finally getting healthier after it was hit hard by a flu bug. The Knights also come in hungry for a win. Vegas has lost nine of its last 12. The Knights are in the sixth spot in the West, but a lack of offense has also been a concern for Las Vegas since the All Star break.

The pick: With both teams looking to break slumps and out to push the pace, this one definitely sets up as more of a “high scoring shootout” than a slower-paced defensive affair in my opinion. But take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg has seen the total go “over” the number in 10 of its last 14 following a divisional contest, while Vegas has seen the total go “over” in nine of 13 already this season in all home games there the total is set at six or higher. This number is low, play the “over.” 

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The set-up: The Thunder dropped their final game before the All Star break to the Pelicans, but previous to that they’d won four in a row. The Jazz lost to the Warriors in their final game before the break. Utah’s achilles heel this year has been its play on the road and I think that trend of futility comes back to haunt it again here vs. the rested and focused Thunder side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Utah is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for Westbrook, George and the home side to all send an early message with a resounding effort. Lay the points.

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The set-up: Davidson comes in off a crushing 74-73 home loss to Dayton. The Wildcats are now firmly on the bubble as far as their Tournament hopes are concerned, but the only thing they can control is their performance tonight: “We put ourselves in that position,” said Davidson guard Jon Axel Gudmundsson. “We didn’t come out to fight.” Rhode Island is 12-13 overall and 5-8 in league play. The Rams would love to play spoiler here, but I just don’t see it happening. Rhode Island has zero momentum after four straight losses and I think the Rams are going to be outclassed severely here as well from this angry Davidson side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Davidson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 7-3 ATS In its last ten as a road fav in the +0.5 to +6.5 points range, while Rhode Island is just 7-22 ATS in its last 29 after scoring 50 or fewer points in its previous game and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout.

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The set-up: SIU Edwardsville Cougars enter off a 73-69 loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out. The Cougars are struggling down the stretch having lost four straight and I don’t see that trend of futility ending tonight. The Cougars allow over 80 PPG on average to their opponents. Tennessee State Tigers look to take advantage and to bounce back from an 84-65 loss to Jacksonville State on Saturday. The Tigers won’t be lacking for motivation here either as they enter having lost three straight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Cougars are just 3-9 ATS on the road this year and only 5-9 ATS following a conference game, while the Tigers are already 4-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses. I’m banking on the home floor advantage being the difference. Lay the points.

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The set-up: Jayson Tatum of the Cetlics predicted that his team would win the Championship this year over the All Star break. Whether or not that bold prediction comes true will come with time, but I do think that the C’s can keep this one competitive, if not even take it outright. Boston scored the 118-110 home win over Detroit in its final game before the break, while Milwaukee earned the 106-97 road win over Indiana in its latest action. These teams have been competitive this year, having split two games thus far. Boston averages 113 PPG and it allows 106.6. The Bucks average 116.9 PPG and they allow 107.1. 

The pick: With Kyrie Irving expected to suit up tonight, the Celtics become even more dangerous in the first game back from the break. Note that the Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when playing with three or more days rest, while the Bucks are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing with three or more days rest. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Both teams come in off losses. Ottawa fell 8-7 on the road to Chicago, while New Jersey lost 4-3 at home to Pittsburgh. The Sens have now lost seven of their last ten. Ottawa goaltender Craig Anderson is 3-13 with a 4.35 GAA on the road and the Senators are only 8-21 overall on the road, averaging 3.03 goals and allowing 4.38 in those contests. The Devils haven’t been much better, as they come in having lost six of their last nine. Devils’ goalie Cory Schneider is 6-5 with a 2.21 GAA lifetime vs. Ottawa. New Jersey is 15-14 at home, averaging 3.13 goals and allowing 2.87 in those games. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ottawa is 9-4 in its last 13 home games as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range, while Ottawa is a poor 16-49 in its last 65 as a road underdog. This one has beatdown written all over it. Lay the price.

10* play

The set-up: Two non-conference teams collides in the dessert on Wednesday night. Both teams are “hungry” though. Boston has won six in a row, including an impressive 6-5 OT win over San Jose. The Bruins will show no signs of slowing down here either in my opinion vs. this “on again, off again” Knights team. The home side won’t be lacking for motivation though as it’s lost eight of its last 11. Las Vegas is holding down the sixth spot in the Western Conference, but clearly it has to get its act together down the stretch. 

The pick: The Knights lost 4-1 in Boston earlier in the year, so they also play with the added incentive of revenge tonight. Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has already seen the total go “over” the number in six of nine this year following a three games or longer unbeaten streak, while Las Vegas has seen the total go “over” in 16 of its last 25 after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. This number is low, play the “over.”

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The set-up: Louisville comes in content after its 56-55 home win over Clemson, while the Orange are out to atone for a 73-58 loss to NC Stateon the road in their most recent action. The Cards’ defense was fantastic in the win over the Tigers, but the offense was horrible, shooting just 35.2 percent from the floor, including only 31.6 percent from range. The Cardinals average 77.4 PPG and they allow 68. The Orange average 70 PPG and they allow 64.3. The Orange are in sixth spot right now in the ACC standings, so would love to move up and get the “double bye” to open the conference tourney. This one “means” more to the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Louisville is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 off a loss win by three points or less over a conference rival, while Syracuse is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival (including 3-0 ATS this year.) All signs point to a rout, play on the Orange.

10* play

The set-up: Andrea Petkovic is 31. Anastasia Potpova is only 17. Petkovic is 29-23 over the last 12 months and Potpova is 32-15. Petkovic has won 11 titles, while Potapova has won one. 

The pick: I believe that the experience that Petkovic brings to the table at this stage will prove to be the difference in Budapest today. Potpova’s future is bright, but I think she stumbles vs. the German veteran.

10* play on Andrew Petkovic -162 Pinnacle (over Anastasia Potpova). 

The set-up: While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. FSU most recently beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, while Clemson enters with zero momentum after back-to=-back losses to Miami and Louisville. FSU has won four straight at home, but it’s also won three straight away from friendly confines. FSU’s current win streak started with a 77-68 win at home over Clemson on January 22nd and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. After back-to-back one point losses, things aren’t going to get any easier for the reeling Tigers. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win, while Clemson is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games following back-to-back close losses of 3-points or less. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Lightning killed the Blue Jackets 5-1 last night and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here in the second game of the back-to-back. The Flyers enter off a 3-1 road win in Detroit. Note that Tampa was just 1:45 away from posting its third straight shutout last night. Tampa is expected to start Louis Domingue in net tonight and he’s 18-4 with a 2.90 GAA on the year. The Lightning are now 20-8 on the road, averaging 3.50 goals and allowing 2.93 in those contests. The Flyers have won 11 of their last 13, but they’re still six points out of the eighth spot in the East. Philly is still only 15-15 at home, averaging 3.00 goals and allowing 3.13 in those games. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa is 19-6 (+6 units) this year vs. teams with losing records, while Philadelphia is just 4-9 (-5.3 units) after a win by two goals or more. The Bolts coasted down the stretch last night and I think they enter this one “fresher” that most would expect. Lay the price, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: Two of the best teams in their respective conferences collide on the West Coast on Monday night and in my opinion, goals are going to be plentiful. Boston is in a tight race for second place in the East behind Tampa. The Bruins are looking to sweep the California portion of their road trip with another victory here after dispatching the Kings 4-2 on Saturday. Keep your eyes on Boston’s Brad Marchand, who has four goals and 13 assists over his last ten games (he also has four goals and three assists in 12 lifetime match ups vs. the Sharks.) San Jose can’t afford to take the foot off the gas either as its tied atop the Pacific with Calgary. The Sharks also hit the road for a four game Eastern swing immediately after this one, making tonight’s contest that much more important. From a “situational” stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a high-scoring shootout in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in five of its last six following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while San Jose has seen the total go “over” in 15 of its last 21 non-conference games. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: I think George Mason comes in flat footed after its tough 80-75 OT win over UMass on Wednesday. The Bonnies though are ready to build off their convincing 76-51 road win over Saint Joseph’s on Tuesday. Note that the Bonnies also play with revenge here after falling 68-53 at George Mason on the first matchup this year back on January 6th. From a “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but George Mason just 1-4 ATS this year off two straight victories vs. conference rivals, while St. Bonaventure is 3-1 ATS in its last four revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bonnies.

10* play

The set-up: The Oilers come in off a 3-1 road loss in Carolina just last night. Edmonton has now lost nine of its last ten. Clearly the Oilers have many issues this year, but I think the visitors play with extreme desperation in the second game of the back-to-back. The Islanders have been rolling and are one of the surprise teams in the NHL this year, but with three whole nights off before a Western road swing, I think the home side get caught in a “trap” this evening. 

The pick: Take it for why you will as well, but the Oilers are 6-3 (+2.1 units) in their last nine after scoring one goal or less in their previous outing, while New York is just 2-3 (-1.4 units) this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing. Lay the price, play on Edmonton the “puck line.” 

10* play

The set-up: Oklahoma enters off a 59-53 road loss to Baylor and I think it’s primed for another letdown here. TCU comes in focused after a tough 82-77 OT loss at home to No. 14 Kansas in its latest action. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Horned Frogs, as the Sooners have won three straight in this series, including a 76-74 victory in the first matchup at home back in mid January. There’s no question that from a “situational” stand point, that this one sets up beautifully for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home overall, while Oklahoma is just 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points, this one has blowout written all over it.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams are red hot, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Buffalo enters at 21-3 and on two straight victories, while Toledo is 20-4 and in the midst of a five-game win skein. This however is a “revenge” game for Toledo after it was smoked 110-80 at Buffalo back on January 8th. The Rockets have played exceptionally since that setback and with a chance to avenge that pathetic effort, I do indeed expect the home side to step up and answer the call. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up well for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toledo is 7-2 ATS In its last nine at home, while Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Murray State comes in with plenty of momentum having won three straight, nost recently dispatching the SIU Edwardsville Cougars 86-55 on Saturday. Overall Murray State shot 52.9 percent from the floor and it also won the rebounding battle by 18-11. Ja Morant led the way in the win with 20 points, five boards, six assists, a block and a steal. Overall Murray State averages 82.7 PPG, while allowing 67.1. Austin Peay has won four straight, most recently holding on for a 94-86 victory over Eastern Illinois on Saturday. The Governors average 82.7 PPG, and they allow 71.3. 

The pick: Take it for what will though, but Murray State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning home records and I think the high-scoring Racers will improve on that trend and take advantage of an Austin Peay defense which ranks 181st in the country. Play on the visitors.

10* Play

The set-up: The Thunder will look to close the first half with another big win before then concentrating on the All Star game. The Pelicans are in complete free fall mode after their star Anthony Davis announced that he won’t re-sign with the team at the end of the year. The Pelicans have lost five of six and they’re firmly out of the playoff hunt on the season. Davis has only three points in his last game and it would appear as if he and his team have “thrown in the towel.” Russell Westbrook and Paul George though are breaking NBA records almost every other night. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that to continue here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 14-5 ATS already this year off a home victory, while New Orleans is only 13-14 ATS at home. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: Vancouver enters off a 7-2 home loss to the Sharks, while the Ducks are off a 6-2 road loss in Philly. These are two teams desperate for victories and with each expected to push the pace from start to finish, I look for this total to blast past the number sooner, rather than later. Vancouver is 12-18 on the road, averaging 2.67 goals and allowing 3.17 in those contests. Canucks’ goaltender Jacob Markstrom is 9-12 on the road with a 2.93 GAA. After losing four of its last five, clearly Vancouver won’t be holding anything back today. And neither will Anaheim, which has lost seven straight, getting outscored 37-8 in the process. Ducks’ net minder John Gibson is 9-13 with a 2.83 GAA at home. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vancouver has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 12 vs. the division, while Anaheim has seen the total go “over” in nine of its last 13 when playing with three or more days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: Miami is struggling right now and I think it’s ripe for the picking. The Heat have fallen into ninth spot in the East with a 25-30 record. Most recently Miami lost for a sixth time in seven games in its 103-87 setback in Denver. Overall Miami averages 105.9 PPG, while allowing 106.7. However over its last ten games Miami has posted just 103.3 points per game over its last ten. The Mavericks are looking to bounce back from a 120-104 loss to Houston. The Mavs average 108.4 PPG and they allow 108.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is already only 4-9 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, while Dallas is 10-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: I base my picks on many different things. One thing I almost always take into account is scheduling. For the most part, that’s what I’m basing this selection on. The Flyers have been rolling of late, but after a humbling 4-1 loss at home to the Penguins, I think they’ll predictably come out flat here. On the other end of the ice, the Wild come in extremely focused on the task at hand as they’ve lost five of their last six games. From a “situational” stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up fantastically for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Flyers are still only 12-14 (-5.7 units) this season vs. teams with losing records, while the Wild are 11-8 (+2.1 units) in their last 19 following a non-conference game. Lay the price, expect a rout.

10* play

The set-up: Anthony Davis won’t be playing for the Pelicans next year and while he’s also going to be playing limited minutes, he’ll still be a “man on a mission” as he looks to cement his resume before moving on. The Pelicans will be hungry here after their 99-90 loss on the road in Memphis. The Magic on the other hand look poised for a classic letdown in my opinion after their 124-108 road in Atlanta in their most recent action. The Magic average 105.2 PPG and they allow 107.5. The Pelicans average 115.8 PPG and they allow 114.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Orlando is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. the Western Conference, while New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS setback. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: I think goals will be at a premium tonight between these two hungry clubs. New York comes to town off a 2-1 home win over Minnesota, while Buffalo is in bounce back mode after its 3-1 home loss to Winnipeg. Isles’ net minder Robin Lehner is 2-3 with a 2.15 GAA lifetime vs. the Sabres. New York is 16-11 on the road, averaging only 2.74 goals in those games, but allowing only 2.44. Buffalo is 16-12 at home, averaging 3.07 goals and allowing 3.04 in those contests. Sabres’ goalie Carter Hutton is so far 10-8 with a 2.48 GAA at home. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Isles have already seen the total go “under” the number in seven of their last ten following a three-games unbeaten streak, while the Sabres have seen the total go “under” in five of seven after playing three consecutive home games. This number is high, play the “under.”

8* play

The set-up: Purdue comes to town at 10-2 and in second place in the Conference. Maryland isn’t far behind though at 9-4 and it’ll be out for a little revenge here after it fell in a narrow 62-60 defeat to the Boilermakers in early December. Would anyone fault Purdue having a letdown here after eight straight victories, including one of the “rocking chair” variety in last Saturday’s 81-62 home win over Nebraska? Purdue averages 78.8 PPG and it allows 68.4. The Terps beat Nebraska 60-45 in their most recent action. The Terps lead the league in rebounding margin at +10.4, and they easily out rebounded the Huskers 53-38. From a situational stand point, i think this one definitely sets up great for the home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Purdue is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road dog or pick, while Maryland is already 3-1 ATS this season in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Jayhawks may have beaten lowly Oklahoma State last time out, but Kansas has still lost four of seven, thanks in large part to a heavily depleted roster. The Jayhawks started four freshman for just the second time in head coach Bill Self’s 16 year tenure in the win over the Cowboys and I think an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent here, facing a Horned Frogs squad coming off one of its biggest victories in over ten years. TCU comes in off two straight victories, including a 92-83 win at Iowa State last time out, a victory over a ranked team on the road for the first time in 21 years! 

The pick: Clearly the momentum is in favor of the surging Frogs, but I’ll point out as well that they’re 9-2 ATS in their last 11 at home and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a victory, while Kansas is still 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road. This one has “blowout” written all over it, play on TCU.

10* play

The set-up: The Wizards are off a high-scoring 134-125 road win over Chicago on Saturday, while Detroit enters off a home and home sweep of the Knicks, most recently pulling away for the 120-103 victory on Friday. So far these teams have split two meetings this year, with Washington winning the last 101-87. These are two hungry teams who haven’t thrown in the towel and I believe this competitiveness will help in driving this total below the posted number. In my opinion, this one has the feel of a very low-scoring defensive battle, rather than a wide open shootout. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “under” the number in four of five already this year after scoring 130 or more points in its previous game, while Detroit has seen the total go “under” in 19 of 30 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in off losses. The Kings fell 5-4 in OT to the Bruins on the road, while the Capitals lost 5-4 in OT to the Panthers at home. Previous to their loss in Boston though, the Kings had won three straight. Kings goalie Jonathan Quick is an astounding 9-2 with a 2.23 GAA lifetime vs. the Capitals. The defending champs come in on the other end of the spectrum as they’ve lost nine of their last 12. Caps’ net minder Braden Holtby is just 1-3 with a 2.51 ERA lifetime vs. the Kings.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 6-1 in its last seven after allowing five goals or more in its previous contest, while Washington is just 1-5 in its last six after allowing five or more goals. This is a great price for the extra goal-and-a-half of insurance. Play on the Kings on the puck line.

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The set-up: Locked in a three way fight for second spot in the Atlantic with Montreal and Boston, and off a big win over the Habs just last night, I think the Leafs carry that momentum over today in this favorable matchup in The Big Apple. Leafs’ goaltender Frederick Anderson has won three straight over New York and overall he’s 5-2-1 with a 2.90 GAA vs. the Rangers. New York comes in off a deflating 3-0 loss at home to Carolina on Friday and I have a hard time seeing the Rangers’ offense keeping pace with the high-flying Leafs tonight. Rangers’ goaltender Henrik Lundqvist has lost three straight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 5-16 in its last 21 vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, Toronto is 15-6 in its last 21 vs. clubs with a sub .500 record (also 5-2 in their last seven in New York.) Lay the price, expect a rout.

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The set-up: The Suns are looking to bounce back after a 117-107 home loss to the Warriors. The Kings look poised for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion after their 102-96 home win over Miami on Friday. These teams have played twice already this year, and they’ve split those games, with the Suns taking the latest 115-111 at home on January 8th. Phoenix is absolutely desperate here to break its slide after 13 straight losses and while I’m not going to predict a SU victory here, I do think that the desperate visiting side can keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is already 3-1 ATS this year after ten or more consecutive losses, while Sacramento is just 4-7 ATS vs. the division and just 1-2 ATS after playing four straight home games. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter.

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The set-up: Both teams have struggled this year. Both teams comes in on losing streaks. The Yellow Jackets are the better defensive club, but not by much. Georgia Tech’s defense though looked pretty average in its 65-42 loss to Clemson last time out. Notre Dame beat Boston College, but then it lost at Miami, managing just 47 points in the setback. The Hurricanes aren’t the best defensively this year, but playing in their own building is never an easy task. A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Irish though in my opinion. 

The pick: As note that ND is 4-2 ATS in its last six home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to six points range and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two consecutive road games as an underdog, while GT is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range. Lay the point, expect a blowout.

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The set-up: Marshall comes in having lost five of six. The Owls have been terrible of late as well, going just 2-6 in their last eight. Rice will be “gassed” here as well after falling in double OT to WKU on Thursday. The Herd looked horrible in their most recent 78-51 loss at UNT on Thursday. From a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a lower-scoring battle in my opinion between these two hungry/desperate teams. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five after two or more consecutive losses, while Rice has seen the total go “under” in both games it’s played in this season off a home loss against a conference rival. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

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The set-up: Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Cardinals look poised for a letdown after their very satisfying 72-64 road win over Virginia Tech. The Seminoles return him off a road victory over Syracuse. FSU won’t be taking anything for granted here after Louisville took two of three in the season series last year. The Cards average 78.8 PPG and they allow 68. The Seminoles though are 10-1 on their home floor and they average 77 points and allow 68.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Louisville is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a road win vs. a conference rival, while FSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. Lay the points, expect a rout.

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The set-up: Two hungry teams collide on Friday night and I think that points will be plentiful. The Bucks hammered the Wizards 148-129 on Wednesday, while Dallas enters off a 99-93 win over Charlotte at home on Wednesday. The Mavericks will be hungry here to avenge a 116-106 road loss in the first meeting between the clubs. Milwaukee is surging still as it comes in having won five straight. Overall Milwaukee averages 117.8 PPG, while allowing 107.6. Dallas has won five of its last seven and it averages 109.1 PPG, while allowing 108.4. With nothing to lose, I’m expecting these non-conference opponents to push the pace from start to finish.

The pick: Note as well that Milwaukee has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five after covering the spread three straight times as a favorite, while Dallas has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last nine home game after failing to score 100 points in a victory in its previous outing. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

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The set-up: Indiana enters off a big upset win over Michigan State over the weekend and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Iowa also comes in off a big win, downing No. 5 ranked Michigan. I believe though that the Hawkeyes will come in complacent here in this difficult road venues. The Hoosiers don’t have that luxury though, as they lost their first seven league games this year. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up perfectly for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten when playing with five or six days rest and only 10-14 ATS in its last 24 following a home win by ten points or more, while Indiana is 23-14 ATS in its last 37 as a home favorite and 3-1 ATS already this season after a victory by six points or less. Lay the points, expect a rout!

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The set-up: I base my picks on many things. This one is based almost entirely on “common sense.” The Hornets come in off an exhausting and heart-breaking 117-115 loss at home to the Clippers just last night and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here as well. The Mavs on the other hand have won two of their last three after easily dispatching the Cavaliers 111-98 on Saturday. Dallas took the first meeting between the clubs 122-84 on the road in the first matchup between the teams this year and I expect a similar final blowout here as well. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Dallas is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 at home, while Charlotte is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with winning home records. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

10* DALLAS. 

The set-up: The Sens will be eager to get back on track here after a listless 2-0 home loss to Detroit last time out. The Leafs could clearly care less about their rivals problems as they’ll be looking to build off their commanding 6-1 home win over Anaheim. The Sens are terrible. Ottawa goaltender Craig Anderson is just 3-10 with a 4.23 GAA on the road this year. Toronto is now 16-12 at home, averaging 3.36 goals and allowing 2.68 in those contests. 

The pick: I’m not going to lay this steep price on the home side, but I absolutely expect a wide open affair here. Take it for what you will as well but Ottawa has seen the total go “over” four of five this year when playing with three or more days rest and in 12 of 18 after a loss by two goals or more. Also note that the Leafs have seen the total go “over” in nine of their last 12 vs. divisional foes. This number is low, play the “over.”

10* OVER

The set-up: Bowling Green dismantled WMU 79-48 at the Stroh Center back on January 19th and I think a similar final combined outcome is in the cards tonight as well. Bowling Green is rolling, going 11-1 in its last 12, it enters off its biggest win in a decade, pulling away for a victory over then No. 18 Buffalo last Friday. The Falcons know they can’t come in complacent here against a WMU team which is 0-8 in league play: 

“We don’t want to get to that place where we’re complacent and we think [winning] is just going to happen,” BG head coach Michael Huger noted. “You can’t play up or down to the opponent–you’ve got to play the same way every single time. It’s easier said than done. I can say it, but now we’ve got to go out and do it, and that’s the hard part.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 at home, while Bowling Green is 8-1 ATS in its last nine following a SU victory. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

10* BOWLING GREEN

The set-up: The Kings enter off a 4-2 loss in Long Island and I think they’ll have a difficult time in the Big Apple as well. New York is off a competitive 3-2 home loss to league leading Tampa and I expect it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night here. LA is now a deplorable 8-17 on the road, averaging only 1.84 goals and allowing 2.96 in those contests. The Rangers are 13-13 at home, averaging 2.92 goals and allowing 2.62 in those contests. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is interestingly just 8-22 in its last 30 when its opponent scores two goals or less in its previous contest and only 1-8 in its last nine vs. the Eastern Conference, while New York is 44-19 in its last 63 vs. a team with a win percentage below .400. In my professional opinion, this line could/should easily be much larger. Lay the price.

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The set-up: The story lines are well known. The Rams are the up and coming West Coast team that’s backed by a high-powered offense, while the Patriots are one of the most storied franchises in history. I’ve just never been fully convinced by this year’s version of the Patriots. Tom Brady and company beat the Chiefs at home earlier in the year, so the fact that they won last week doesn’t come as a huge surprise despite being the underdog. LA got blasted for 45 points in a loss to New Orleans earlier in the year, but the Rams’ defense came up huge in the 26-23 OT NFC Conference Championship victory. I simply feel that the Rams’ suddenly improving defense, combined with the “one, two” punch of Goff and Gurley will prove to be too much for Bill Belichick.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England 2-3 ATS this year already after two or more straight victories ATS, while LA is 3-1 ATS this year after two or more straight wins vs. the spread. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter.

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The set-up: The Thunder continue to roll and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here as well. Most recently OKC came out on top 118-102 in Miami on Friday. The C’s also come in off a blowout victory, hammering the Knicks 113-99 on the road on Friday. While the first matchup between these clubs was a lower-scoring “under” (Boston won 101-95 on October 25th in OKC), that was at the start of the season, before OKC started to turn things around. I’m expecting each side to push the pace of this one from start to finish and a faster paced game = more shots and more shots = more points.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of 18 this season already after a non-conference game, while Boston has seen the total go “over” in 16 of 26 at home. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 

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The set-up: This is a revenge game for Minnesota after it fell 103-101 in Denver back in November. The Nuggets though come in “dog tired” in the second game of a back-to-back scenario, pulling away for a big 136-122 home win over Houston on Friday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of the Wolves tonight.

The pick: It also sets up nicely for the Wolves from a trend based stand point, as note that Denver is just 5-8 ATS this year as a road favorite, while Minnesota is 5-3 ATS as a home underdog. I’m grabbing the points.

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The set-up: The Blues have struggled this year, especially on the road. Columbus used to lead the Metro division, but it comes in having lost four straight and desperate for a victory. I think St. Louis is going to struggle against this hungry and focused home side and in this difficult road arena. Columbus has played some top tier teams of late, but finally it catches a break here facing the “on-again, off-again” Blues.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is just 1-4 in its last five after scoring five goals in its previous game, while Columbus is 43-21 in its last 64 home games vs. a teams with a losing road record. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the price.

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The set-up: The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 15-5 and the Ole Miss Rebels are 14-6. I can’t understate how important I think that the home floor advantage will be in this particular matchup. The Rebels upset Mississippi State 81-77 on the road on January 12th and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards on their home floor. The Rebels are 4-3 in league play and the Bulldogs are 3-4. Mississippi State comes in off a deflating 83-79 road defeat to Alabama and I have a hard time seeing it mustering up the same energy in this difficult arena. The Bulldogs have regressed defensively as well since the start of conference play. Overall they’re allowing 96.6 points per 100 possessions, but since the start of league action that’s ballooned to 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Ole Miss has lost three straight and it comes in off a tough 90-86 road loss to Florida, but as stated off the top, I think a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Mississippi State is just just 3-5 ATS in its last eight revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Ole Miss is already 10-1 ATS this season as a favorite. Lay the short points.

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The set-up: From both a situational stand point and a trend based one, I think this one sets up great as a lower-scoring under. Both teams come in off horrible losses and as such, I’m expecting a much more concerted effort on the defensive end of the floor from each. The Hawks were destroyed 135-113 in Sacramento on Wednesday, while Utah fell 132-105 in Portland the same night. Clearly each will be out to atone for that massive letdown on the defensive end of the floor.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Hawks have seen the total go “under” the number in all five games that they’ve played in this year after playing to three or more consecutive “overs,” while Utah has seen the total dip “under” the posted number in eight of its last 12 after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. This number is high, play the “under.” 

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The set-up: Toronto goaltender Frederik Anderson is 12-4-1 on the road with a 2.79 GAA this year. He’s also 7-0-0 in his last seven vs. the Wings, posting a 2.50 GAA and .920 save percentage. Leafs’ forward Jon Tavares has two goals and five assists in three wins over the Wings this year, while Auston Matthews has six goals and five assists during a seven-game point streak vs. Detroit. Wings’ net minder Jimmy Howard is 9-8-4 with a 2.63 GAA at home, but he’d let up four goals to the Leafs on 34 shots in a loss back on October 11th. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is just 1-8 in its last nine after allowing two or fewer goals in its previous game, while Toronto is 13-5 in its last 18 vs. teams with losing records. No upset here as I look for Anderson to continue his red hot play away from friendly confines. Lay the price.

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The set-up: These teams come in off other ends of the spectrum and I believe that dynamic carries over into this one. Columbus enters off a disheartening 5-4 home loss to lowly Buffalo, while Winnipeg comes in off a 4-3 shootout win over the Bruins. Columbus has in fact lost three in a row. Note that that Blue Jackets average 3.00 GPG on the road and allow 2.96. The Jets are 7-3 in their last ten. Winnipeg is 18-8 at home this season and it averages 3.81 goals and allows 2.65 in those contests. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Columbus is just 3-7 in its last ten vs. teams with a winning record, while Winnipeg is 16-5 in its last 21 in the third game of a three-in-four situation. In my estimation, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on the Jets.

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The set-up: Dallas has been a lot better on the road than at home this year and it had lost four of six previous to last night’s big win in The Big Apple. Can anyone say letdown spot? Detroit on the other hand has lost back-to-back games, including to these very Mavs just last week. From a situational stand point, this one is definitely being handed to the home side on a “silver platter” in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after three consecutive non-conference games and just 1-2 ATS after allowing 90 points or less, while Detroit is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, expect a rout.

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The set-up: UCLA rolled to a 90-69 win over Arizona at home in its latest action and I look for it to carry that momentum over here as well. Washington State on the other hand enters off a poor 78-58 loss on the road to Oregon and I think it’ll have a hard time containing the up-tempo Bruins. UCLA won’t be taking anything for granted here either as the win over the Wildcats would in fact snap a three-game slide. The Bruins aerate 78.3 PPG, while allowing 75.3. WSU has lost three straight and nine of its last ten. The Cougars average 77.4 PPG and they allow 77.9. 

The pick: Note that UCLA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a SU/ATS win at home in which it scored 90 or more points in, while WSU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning SU records. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

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The set-up: The Pelicans have to adjust to the idea that Anthony Davis will soon be leaving the team. He won’t be suiting up here. It’s going to be all hands on deck though as New Orleans tries to gain an identity moving forward. In this contest anyways, I think the Pelicans rally and at the very least, keep this one competitive against a Rockets team which I predict will get caught looking past its lowly opponent. The Pelicans’ have lost three straight, but Jrue Holiday looked decent after posting 29 points, seven boards and three assists in the losing effort. He’ll be leaned upon heavily moving forward. The Rockets continue to win, but it was anything but easy in their latest 103-98 victory over the lowly Magic at home. I think James Harden and company are starting to run out of gas and there’s no question in my mind that this one actually sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. 

The-pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is 8-4 ATS this year trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent, while Houston is just 3-4 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. No upset, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CLINIC PELICANS

The set-up: Outright upset? Clearly it’s not out of the question. That said, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Both teams come in off wins. Toledo averages 80.6 PPG and it allows 69.2. Miami Ohio averages 73.4 PPG and it allows 70.2. 

The pick: From a trend based stand point though, there’s no question that this one favors the home side, as note that Toledo is a poor 2-4 ATS on the road already this year, while Miami Ohio is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as a home dog or pick. Grab the points.

10* MAC-ATTACK Miami Ohio.

The set-up: TCU comes to town off a 55-50 home win over Florida, while Texas Tech comes in off a hard-fought 67-64 home victory over Arkansas. TCU is 3-3 in league play, while the Red Raiders are 4-3. These are two defensive minded clubs and I believe that points will indeed be at a premium here. TCU’s offense was poor in the win over the Gators, as the team shot just 36 percent from the floor collectively. The Horned Frogs average 76.9 PPG and they allow just 66. The Red Raiders average only 70.0 PPG, but they make up for it on the either end of the floor, allowing just 56.4 PPG, ranked second in the country only behind Virginia. 

The pick: Note that TCU has seen the total go under in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 and in five of its last six on the road, while TT has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven home games vs. teams with a losing road record. This number is high, play the “under.” 

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The set-up: Am I calling for an outright upset? I’m not. But I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive war than what this spread would suggest. Boston comes in off a loss to the red hot Warriors and now face one of the league’s other white hot teams in the Nets, who come to town on a six-game win streak, including a victory over the Knicks on Friday. The Celtics didn’t manage a win over the Warriors and I think a letdown here is imminent after that “close call.” From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the visitors in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Brooklyn is already 9-5 ATS this year off a home win and 5-1 ATS off a win vs. a division rival, while Boston is just 18-25 ATS in its last 43 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the end. 

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The set-up: Despite a 4-2 road loss vs. the Stars in its final game before the break, I think Winnipeg will bounce back here in this favorable matchup in its first game back after the All Star game. The Flyers on the other hand look poised for a predictable letdown here after the lay off and from their latest 5-2 road win in Montreal. Overall Winnipeg is 13-9 on the road though, averaging 3.05 goal and allowing 2.91 in those instances. The Flyers are only 10-13 at home though, averaging 2.83 goals and allowing 3.26. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is just 3-13 in its last 16 after scoring five goals or more in its previous game, while Winnipeg is 25-9 in its last 34 vs. the Eastern Conference. I’m banking on the Jets coming out flying to start the second half. Lay the short price.

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