The set-up: Ohio State has won four straight in this series, including a 36-31 home win in 2018. The Buckeyes are 4-0 and they enter off a 76-5 win over Miami Ohio last Saturday. Nebraska clearly won’t be rolling over here as it’s 3-1 and most recently it beat Illinois 42-38. These two Big Ten title contenders have played to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe that this Week 5 matchup finally sets up as more of a defensive affair. 

The pick: Nebraska’s defense is under-rated here, it allowing only 116.7 rushing yards and 240 passing yards per game. But not to be outdone, the Buckeyes come in ranked as the second best defense in the country, conceding just 220 total yards per game. Additionally note that the Buckeyes have seen the total go under the number in four of their last six when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points, while Nebraska has seen the total dip under in four of its last five after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ohio State/Nebraska under.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing well. Both teams are led by dynamic  QB’s. ASU is led by Jayden Daniels, while Cal is led by Chase Garbers. Daniels has looked poised early, but he’s still for the most part untested and that definitely changes tonight. Note that in the game vs. Michigan State, Daniels was only 15 of 26 for 140 yards and no TD’s in the 10-7 win. Cal sits 61st in the country in defense, allowing 366.5 YPG. The Bears’ secondary has given up just two passing TD’s as well through four games. 

The pick: Garbers has a 7:2 TD:INT thus far. He’s backed up by two competent RB’s in Christopher Brown Jr. and Marcel Dancy, who will keep the Sun Devils honest with Garbers (both have two rushing TD’s so far this season.) I give Cal the slight edge in all three phases and combined with the home field advantage, I’m going to confidently lay the points and expect a solid cover.

10* PAC-12 BEST OF THE BEST on California.

The set-up: Neither starter has done well this year and I believe each will struggle in this match-up as well. The visitors hand the ball to Pablo Lopez, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez. 

The pitchers: Lopez (5-8, 4.96 ERA) is an atrocious 2-5 with a 7.27 ERA on the road this year. 

Velasquez (7-8, 4.76) was most recently shelled for four runs over four innings in a loss to the Indians on Sunday.

The pick: The Phillies are out of playoff contention and they’re now just 79-80 on the year. Philadelphia will be hungry to stop its six game slide and I expect a big day at the plate from both teams here, as Miami would love nothing more than to kick the home side while its down. Facing these two suspect starting pitchers, everything definitely points to these line-ups being the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the over.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Marlins/Phillies.

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Tribe hand the ball to Zach Plesac, while the home side goes with Austin Voth. The home side has a chance to ruin Cleveland’s post-season chances, as after dropping two straight games to the White Sox, Cleveland is two games behind the Rays for the final Wild Card spot with three games remaining. And unfortunately for the Indians, the Nats are just as “hungry” for victories here, as they hold only a one game lead for top spot in the NL Wildcard race. 

The pitchers: Plesac (8-6, 3.82 ERA) most recently was rocked for four runs off five hits over four innings vs. the Phillies in his last outing. 

Voth (1-1, 3.35) has a 2.12 ERA over four games since returning from the IL, posting 19 K’s over 17 frames. 

The pick: Considering all of the above situational factors, I think we’re getting a fantastic price on the home side here and it’s the reason why this play qualifies as one of my signature “PLAY-BOOK” releases.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: Yes the Eagles are “desperate” at 1-2, but they’ve also been terrible for the most part leading into this short week Thursday night contest. Carson Wentz has been good for Philly, but he’s been hampered by the fact that so many of his offensive weapons around him are injured. Five teams sit without a loss in the Eagles’ division and with a chance to deliver the knock out blow, I think the surging home side does just that. With a shot at a 4-0 start, I look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. 

The pick: Note that Green Bay has led a half time in each of its three wins. The Packers have jumped out to early leads and maintained because of their incredible defensive play, allowing only 11.7 PPG. I think that Philadelphia struggles here to move the ball vs. this red hot defensive unit and I expect Aaron Rodgers to continue his blistering start to the 2019/20 campaign. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger.

10* SUPER DESTRUCTION on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: This is an early key AAC West division battle and as such, I think we’re going to see a very competitive affair. Note that the Midshipmen lead the all time series 3-1, including last year’s 22-21 upset victory over the Tigers. Navy likes to slow the game down when on offense, which works against this fast-paced Memphis offense. Keep your eyes on Navy QB Malcolm Perry, who also leads the team in rushing yards and TD’s this year. Memphis has been fantastic early defensively, but I think that over time that the visitors attack will wear down the home side front. 

The pick: The Tigers’ numbers are skewed in my opinion due to the level of competition. After a poor offensive showing to open the year vs. Ole Miss, the Tigers put up 55 vs. FCS opponent Southern, while them going on to also beat South Alabama by 42 points. Note that Tigers’ QB Brady White has three TD’s and an three INT’s thus far. Last year it was a one point victory f and the year before that it was a three-point win for the Tigers. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy.

The set-up: I’m expecting a “duel” between these two hungry hurlers. Both Kyle Freeland and Tyler Beede have had poor campaigns, but each will be eager to try and pad their stats with a strong performance while they can. 

The pitchers: Freeland (3-11, 6.84 ERA) comes back from injury and he worked two innings vs. the Dodgers last Saturday. He’s 1-1 vs. San Fran this year and a sharp 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 starts for his career.

Beede (5-10, 5.23) has been roughed up twice by the Rockies this year, but note that he’s been at his best at home this season (3.99 ERA at home, compared to 6.28 on the road.) 

The pick: This series will conclude the Rockies road campaign. The Giants are paying respects to manager Bruce Bochy before he retires. Yesterday’s contest ended 2-1 and I anticipate another low-scoring affair here. 

10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Rockies/Giants. 

The set-up: Neither starter will be lacking for motivation today. Both Kyle Freeland and Tyler Beede will be equally as “hungry” here, so I’m calling the pitchers a “wash” today. But after yesterday’s extra innings 2-1 victory, I think the home side carries that momentum over into this one. Overall I think it’s a great situational play, as the home side continues to pay tribute to long-time manager Brucy Bochy. 

The pitchers: Freeland (3-11, 6.84 ERA) makes his second start back after an extended time on the IL with a groin issue. He pitched two innings vs. the Dodgers last weekend. 

Beede (5-10, 5.23) gave up six runs over six innings in a 6-0 loss to the Braves on Friday. Beede has been much better at home (3.99 ERA), than on the road (6.28).

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is already a terrible 6-15 (-6.7 units) this season revenging a loss where it scored one or less runs, while San Fran is now 32-28 (+4.3 units) this year vs. clubs with losing records. Lay the short price.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the San Fran Giants.

The set-up: The Phillies have been officially eliminated from playoff contention and I believe they’ll simply “go through the motions” this evening. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Drew Smyly, while the home side counters with Anibal Sanchez. 

The pitchers: Smyly (4-7, 6.44 ERA) has a 5.82 ERA in nine starts since the start of August.

Sanchez (10-8, 3.91) has a 2.37 ERA over his past three starts. 

The pick: Washington has clinched a spot, but it still needs to claim home field advantage. There’s no room for error here. Expect the home side to lay the hammer down vs. the now eliminated Phillies. 

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Michael Wacha, while the home side goes with Merrill Kelly. 

The pitchers: Wacha (6-7, 4.63 ERA) has been decent of late, but note that he’s a terrible 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA on the road this season. 

Kelly (12-14, 4.31) has been decent of late as well, but he’s just 2-3 with a 5.66 ERA in his last five day home games.

The pick: While yesterday’s game went well under the number (3-2 D-Backs in extra frames), Wednesday afternoon’s contest definitely sets up as more of a slugfest in my opinion (note as well that St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in 23 of its last 38 on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Arizona has seen the total soar over the number in 18 of its last 28 vs. teams with winning records.) Everything points to a classic “slug-fest.” 

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Cards/D-Backs.

The set-up: I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound and at the plate than what this line would suggest. The visitors see Julio Teheran toe the slab, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy. 

The pitchers: Teheran (10-10, 3.55 ERA) is 0-2 lifetime vs. the Royals, despite a minuscule 0.69 ERA spanning 13 frames of work. 

Duffy (6-6, 4.30) is coming off a strong outing and he’s enjoyed success vs. the Braves in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: The Braves still have a mathematical shot at catching the Dodgers, so I don’t expect them to let off the gas over this two-game interleague series. Just the opposite in fact. Look for ATL to come in focused on the task at hand and lay the reasonable mid-sized price (note the Royals swept a two-game series in ATL in July, so the Braves also play with revenge here.) 

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this total will sneak above the posted number. The Marlins hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara, while the home side counters with Noah Syndergaard. Miami won 8-4 last night, pushing the Mets five games behind the Brewers in the wild card race. New York is playing for its playoff life, while the Fish are looking to deliver the final nail in the coffin. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this sets up as a “slug-fest.” 

The pitchers: Alcantara (5-14, 4.00 ERA) most recently was rocked for five run over five innings in a loss to the D-Backs on Wednesday. 

Syndergaard (10-8, 4.22) was most recently shelled for four runs over 5 2/3’s innings vs. the Rockies on Wednesday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 as an underdog of +200 or higher, while New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 as a -200 favorite or higher. This number is low considering all of the above factors. 

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER Marlins/Mets.

The set-up: I’m a situational handicapper (for the most part) and this is a situationally based pick (note, most of my O/U picks, in every sport, or in fact based upon the situation in which each time finds itself coming in.) Chicago is 1-1 after narrowly edging the Broncos. The Bears looked inept vs. the Packers in Week 1 though. Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky has been shaky at best and he’ll be out to “right the ship” in this favorable matchup. Trubisky and the offense are going to come out and push the pace from start to finish as they look to take advantage of this suspect Skins secondary.

The pick: And it’s do or die essentially for Washington, as an 0-3 hole essentially means that it will already miss the playoffs. While the defense definitely has more questions than answers, note though that the Skins have in fact been decent on the offensive end early, averaging 24.0 PPG, which ranks tenth overall (QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and zero INT’s.) Chicago’s defense is impressive, but I believe this games flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Bears/Redskins.

The set-up: Two competent starters who have had more difficult than expected seasons collide on Monday night and in my opinion, I believe each will work deep into this one. And as a result, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors go with Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side counters with Blake Snell. 

The pitchers: Chacin (3-11, 5.66 ERA) has struggled vs. the Rays throughout his career, but he enters off a decent start and I look for the veteran to carry that momentum over here. 

Snell (6-7, 4.19) is 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA in nine career starts vs. Boston. 

The pick: The Red Sox have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Rays are still in a fight for the Wild card. But in this contest, I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Red Sox/Rays.

The set-up: I don’t normally recommend playing a side with a price of this size as one of my top rated 10* selections, unless I unequivocally feel that the situation calls for it. And that’s definitely the case here. The Phillies hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side counters with Patrick Corbin. 

The pitchers: Eflin (9-12, 4.00 ERA) has been much better of late and he’s 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA lifetime vs. the Nationals, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Corbin (13-7, 3.10) has won three of his past four outings, most recently allowing two runs over six innings while striking out 11 in a victory over St. Louis. In eight career starts vs. Philly he’s 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA. 

The pick: This is a huge series for both teams, with Wild card positioning on the line. The Nationals play eight games in seven days which will decide whether they’re hosting the NL Wildcard, or travelling to it. One game at a time obviously. The Phillies are six games out with eight games remaining and come to town off a humbling 10-1 loss in Cleveland just last night. I’m laying the price with confidence. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: The Browns bounced back with a big win at the Jets last week after getting destroyed on Opening Night by the Titans. Cleveland got behind early in Week 1 and combined with a series of miscues and penalties, both the offensive and defensive game plans got thrown out the window early. Last week though Cleveland looked a lot better and precise on both sides of the ball. LA is in a three-way tie in the tough NFC West with both Seattle and the 49ers and it’s difficult to say anything negative about it to this point, however the overall situation is working against the visitors today.

The pick: I think LA gets caught “looking ahead” to its game next week for the Seahawks. Cleveland is set up perfectly here to steal this one outright, but in a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points (and note, LA is a poor 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland is a solid 4-2 ATS in its last six non-conference games.) Outright isn’t out of the question, but grab the points.

10* SLAUGHTER-FEST on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Two teams which have gotten out to shaky starts go head to head on Sunday afternoon and because of that, I expect more of a higher-scoring shootout than a lower-scoring battle. Oakland comes in off a 28-10 loss at home to Kansas City and it hits the road for the first time this year. Minnesota enters off a sloppy performance/loss in Green Bay. Dalvin Cook was a bright spot for Minnesota last week, finishing with 154 rushing yards.  

The pick: Oakland heads out on a lengthy road trip, as its only home game in the next five weeks is in London. The Raiders have been getting great production from other members as well, including WR Tyrell Williams, who has 151 yards receiving and two TD’s so far. The Raiders have to be feeling good with RB Josh Jacobs as well, who has 184 rushing yards and two TD’s. The passing defense looked poor vs. Patrick Mahomes though and it’ll be tested again this week by the Vikes’ Kirk Cousins. These two starting QB’s (David Carr and Cousins) both have something to prove this year and after suspect starts to the 2019/20 season. When you add it all up, everything does indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the over Raiders/Vikings.

The set-up: It’s the annual Rio Grande Rivalry and I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Lobos are 40-14-3 at home against NMSU in Albuquerque. But note that the Aggies have won two of the last three in this series. With neither side lacking for confidence or motivation, this one definitely has more the feel of a wide open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” New Mexico State is led by Tevaka Tuioti, who was 6 for 13 for 132 yards vs. Notre Dame, and who is a legitimate dual threat QB. 

The pick: These two teams hate each other and I believe that extra factor is going to help in contributing to a higher-scoring shootout. Note as well though that New Mexico State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight after a loss by 17 points or more, while New Mexico has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a shade low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the OVER New Mexico State/New Mexico.

The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset. I just think that Ohio State will take the foot off the gas in the second half as it plays out the final game of the non-conference schedule. Miami Ohio lost to Iowa 38-14, beat Tennessee Tech 48-17 and then fell to Cincinnati 35-13. Who could fault the Buckeyes for looking past their lowly opponent after starting the year 3-0, with a 45-21 win over FAU, a 42-0 victory over Cincinnati and a 51-10 effort over Indiana last week. 

The pick: Justin Fields clearly has the advantage over Miami’s Brett Gabbert, but as mentioned, this is a situational play more than anything else. The RedHawks have plenty to work on in this game which they know they’re going to lose, while Ohio State can simply “go through the motions” and still get the job done before a difficult upcoming Big Ten schedule. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio 

The set-up: A couple of competent veteran hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Minor, while the home side counters with Mike Fiers. 

The pitchers: Minor (13-9, 3.33 ERA) has pitched four times in Oakland in his career and he’s gone 1-2 with a 3.95 ERA. 

Fiers (14-4, 4.09) is 8-1 in Oakland this year, and 12-3 at the Coliseum for his career. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 31 this year when on the road and the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly, 17 of 21 games that it’s played on a “Friday” this year (does that matter tonight? Well..it doesn’t hurt!) This number is indeed a bit high in my opinion, play the under.

10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Rangers/As. 

The set-up: For a number of different reasons I think that Jacob deGrom and the visitors are worth the price of admission vs. Luis Castillo and the Reds. 

The pitchers: deGrom (9-8, 2.61 ERA) enters on top form, most recently going seven scoreless in a 3-0 win over the Dodgers on Saturday. Over his past 21 starts he’s posted a minuscule 2.09 ERA. 

Castillo (15-6, 3.22) has “righted” the ship after a shaky patch, most recently earning a victory over the D-Backs. 

The pick: New York still has a slim shot at a wild card berth, but every game from here on out is essentially a “must win.” One game at a time though. Note that deGrom is 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA in five career starts vs. the Reds. Castillo has had success vs. New York in the past, but I believe he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here (note that the Mets are a sharp 16-9 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher, while the Reds are just 11-15 as a home underdog this season.) Lay the price.

10* BLOWOUT SUPER DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.

The set-up: Not known for their offensive explosiveness for the most part, I do in fact believe that this game’s total will fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Neither team has the luxury to take the foot off the gas tonight and just hope things work out. The Titans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. Jacksonville came “oh so close” to an upset in Houston last Sunday, but it wasn’t enough. While both of these team’s games vs. each other went “under” the number last year, I believe the overall conditions that each side finds itself in will finally lend itself to more of a high-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Indeed, despite both game’s totals going under the number last year, five of the last seven between these clubs have gone over the number. Tennessee looked great in its Week 1 demolition of the Browns, but then it had a letdown in last week’s 19-17 loss to the Colts. RB Derrick Henry ate up the Jags last year and he had 81 yards and a TD in last week’s defeat as well. Jacksonville is banged up across the board, but rookie QB Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be lacking for motivation either. When you add up all of the above factors, this number is low in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Titans/Jags.

The set-up: It’s the AAC Opener for both teams and I’m expecting a shootout. Houston is also looking to bounce back from a loss last week. Coach Dana Holgorsen likes to push the pace with an up-tempo air-raid blitz and his counterpart Wilie Fritz, who likes to mix things up, is going to have to match pace in my opinion. Houston has faced two decent teams in Oklahoma and Washington to open the season and QB D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet to this point. But the versatile back is poised for a monster game here in my opinion, as remember that the Cougars had the No. 16 passing offense in the nation last year. Tulane’s pass defense has been decent, but I look for King and company to be committed to the pass today from start to finish.

The pick: Tulane has gotten great play from QB Justin McMillan as well, who has 424 yards and two TD’s through the air and a team-high 154 yards and three TD’s on the ground as well. Keep your eyes on Green Wave receiver Darnell Mooney, who has 12 catches for 183 yards and a TD in the past three games. So far the Cougars’ defense hasn’t fared so well (stiff competition as noted above), but Tulane won’t be rolling over here either as it tries to take advantage of some big holes on the Houston defense. I expect a couple of defensive TD’s along the way as this total flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Houston/Tulane.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi, while the home side goes with Jordan Lyles. The Padres broke a six-game losing streak with a 2-1 win last night, but the Brewers are still surging towards a wild card spot. Note that the loss was just the second in the Brewers last 13 games overall. 

The pitchers: Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA) was shelled for eight runs over 3 2/3’s innings in a 10-8 loss to the Rockies on Friday. 

Lyles (11-8, 4.25) is 3-4 with a 5.02 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Friars.

The pick: After yesterday’s “duel,” the conditions now definitely seem right for more of a “slug-fest” on Thursday afternoon. This number is a tad low in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Padres/Brewers.

The set-up: The Phillies came back and beat the Braves last night, but I like the home side to get the job done on Thursday afternoon. Both teams are equally as “hungry” for victories here. Philadelphia needs victories to stay alive in the race, and ATL is still hunting down the No. 1 spot in the Senior Circuit. But after yesterday’s setback, I think the home side responds. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Nola (12-5, 3.62 ERA) is 3-1 vs. the Braves in five starts this year with a 4.06 ERA. 

Soroka (12-4, 2.57) has a 4.82 ERA and no decisions over two games faced vs. the Phillies this year. For arguments sakes, I’m calling the starters a “wash” today.

The pick: Atlanta can win the division pennant with a win today and tomorrow and after dropping the first two of this series, I look for it to take care of the first of those two steps this afternoon. Great price on the home side here in this great situational spot wager.

10* SITUATIONAL STOMPING on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: While neither starter instils a ton of confidence, I still think that this number is too high. These teams went “under” the number last night as well and all signs point to another lower-scoring affair on Wednesday afternoon in my opinion. The offensively challenged visitors hand the ball to Danny Duffy, while the home side goes with Homer Bailey.

The pitchers: Duffy (6-6, 4.55 ERA) enters throwing his best of the entire season, off back-to-back gems by allowing just two runs and six hits over 12 frames. 

Bailey (13-8, 4.76) started the season on the Royals roster, and since coming over to Oakland he’s gone 6-2 with a 4.70 ERA in 11 starts. He’s 1-0 with 4.50 ERA lifetime vs. KC. 

The pick: The A’s have a two game lead over Tampa and 2.5 game lead over Cleveland for the AL Wildcard. Expect these ex-teammates to go deep and for this total to stay well below the posted number.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under KC/As.

The set-up: Both teams are equally “hungry” for a victory, so we can throw the “motivation” factor out the window for this one in my opinion. The difference comes between the starting pitchers and I think we’re getting great value on Max Scherzer in this case. The Cards hand the ball to Adam Wainwright. 

The pitchers: Scherzer (10-6, 2.65 ERA) is 2-5 with a 2.95 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Cardinals. 

Wainwright (12-9, 4.00) is 9-4 with a 3.34 ERA in 16 games vs. the Nationals. He’s been hot of late, but I believe he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: With last night’s 6-2 win to even this series, the Nats are now only 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs and Brewers in the NL Wildcard race. No time to take the foot off the gas here. Washington’s bullpen looked sharp yesterday and I look for it to be a difference maker today as well. Lay the price.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: It wouldn’t be that difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starting pitchers. I believe that Sonny Gray of the Reds and Yu Darvish of the Cubs are a “wash,” here, but I also think that the conditions definitely overall favor the home side. Chicago has won five straight and I look for that momentum to get carried over here. 

The pitchers: Gray (10-7, 2.80 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Mariners on Wednesday. 

Darvish (6-6, 3.97) is enjoying a bounce back campaign this season and he’s 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA in seven career outings vs. the Reds.

The pick: The Reds are 30-46 on the road this year, while the Cubs are 51-24 at home. Lay the price with confidence.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Chicago Cubs.

The set-up: While neither starting pitchers instills much confidence, I still believe this number is too high. The visitors go with Marco Gonzales, while the home side counters with Mitch Keller. 

The pitchers: Gonzales (15-11, 4.30 ERA) gave up two runs over seven innings in a 5-3 win over the Reds on Wednesday.

Keller (1-4, 8.29) has clearly struggled in his rookie year, but there’s no question that he’s been much worse on the road (11.14 ERA), than at home (4.16.) 

The pick: Both teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but the numbers point otherwise in this particular interleague contest, as note that Seattle has in fact seen the total dip under in nine of 15 interleague games this season, while Pittsburgh’s seen the total go under in four of five after allowing eight runs or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high.

*10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER M’s/Pirates.

The set-up: The Browns were their own worst enemy in Week 1, as several dumb/costly penalties led to an early deficit and they were never mentally able to recover. But Cleveland hasn’t played on Monday night since 2010 and it’ll be out to correct those mistakes and take advantage of this situation (18 penalties for 182 yards.) New York looked poor in Week 1 too though, blowing a 16-0 lead to the Bills at home. But injuries played a big part in New York’s second half collapse, as CJ Moseley and Quinnen Williams both sidelined. 

The pick: And now to make matters worse for New York, QB Sam Darnold has been diagnosed with mononucleosis, meaning that backup Trevor Siemian is being thrust into the spotlight. Baker Mayfield threw three INT’s last week, but that was more out of a sense of desperation with the game already out of reach. I think the Browns defense is the biggest difference maker today. It looked bad last week, but the aforementioned penalties played a big part in that. I think the visitors feast on the Jets’ instability. Lay the points.

10* MONDAY NIGHT MASSACRE on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: I don’t normally place a top 10* ranking on a play with a line of this size, but in this case I feel that it’s absolutely justified. The visitors hand the ball to  Garrett Richards, while the home side goes with Zach Davies. 

The pitchers: Richards (0-0, 0.00 ERA) make his first big league appearance since July 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. 

Davies (9-7, 3.77) is 3-0 with a 3.58 ERA in five career starts vs. the Friars.

The pick: It’s the final 13 games of the season and the Brewers are “peaking” at the right time, returning home to a favorable schedule after a 6-1 road trip. And with a defeat tonight, the Padres are assured a ninth straight losing season. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Milwaukee Brewers. 

The set-up: Both teams played to higher-scoring slug-feats on Sunday, but I believe that the opener of this series sets up as more of a “duel.” The visitors go with Reynaldo Lopez, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios. 

The pitchers: Lopez (9-13, 5.35 ERA) is 1-3 with a 5.30 ERA in six career starts vs. the Twins.

Berrios (12-8, 3.63) is the difference maker for me here, as he’s 10-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the White Sox, including 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four outings this year. 

The pick: Minnesota took two of three from the Indians and with a sweep of the Sox on its final home stand, it can wrap up the division title. I have a hard time seeing Chicago putting many runs on the board today and as a result, look for this total to stay well under the number.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under White Sox/Twins.

The set-up: Oakland looked better than expected in Week 1 by besting the Broncos 24-16 on Monday night. The Chiefs rolled through the Jags 40-26, but I think they’ll have a more difficult time in their second straight road game to open the season. Note that the win over Jacksonville came at a price as well as WR Tyreek Hill was lost to injury and NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury. It all adds up to a more conservative style from the visitors explosive offense in my opinion. 

The pick: Oakland got big production from its run game in Week 1, with Josh Jacobs finishing with 85 rushing yards and two TD’s. I look for the improved Raiders defense to play a big part in the outcome of this one as well. And additionally note that KC has seen the total go under in nine of its last 13 after plaint its previous game on the road, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten as a home dog. The overall conditions/factors definitely point to the under as the correct call on the total in this one.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the under Chiefs/Raiders.

The set-up: I had a play on the Braves as my “GOY” on Thursday and while that came up short, I’ve since come back with ATL the last two days and the Braves have indeed delivered the goods. But now I think the value has swung the other way to the desperate home side as it looks to break the slide and avoid the sweep. The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried, while the home side counter with Anibal Sanchez. 

The pitchers: Fried (16-5, 4.02 ERA) is 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Nats. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Fried, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. 

Sanchez (8-8, 4.04) is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts vs. his former team.

The pick: With yesterday’s win the Braves have already punched their ticket to the post-season. Clearly they have bigger aspirations in mind, but there’s also no question that after accomplishing that feat, that this now sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for Atlanta. I look for the “hungrier” team to get the job done. 

10* ABSOLUTE ANNIHILATION on the Washington Nationals.

The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in this AL contest on Sunday afternoon and I believe that runs will be plentiful. The visitors go with Randy Dobnak, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber.

The pitchers: Dobnak (0-1, 2.25 ERA) makes a spot start here for Jose Berrios. He’s done decently already vs. the Indians on two occasions this year, but that was then and this is now. I think the rookie takes a predictable step back today in this pressure filled afternoon contest. 

Bieber (14-7, 3.17) is 3-0 with a 3.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Twins. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Bieber, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The pick: Cleveland lost both games of yesterday’s double-header and its bid for a fourth consecutive AL Central title is in jeopardy. The Twins on the other hand are inching closer to their first division title since 2010. In my opinion, this one sets up as a high-scoring “slug-fest” on Sunday afternoon.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the over Twins/Tribe.

The set-up: It’s difficult to win and cover on the road, but the Bills did just that at MetLife Stadium last weekend, staging a come from behind win over the Jets. To do it on back-to-back weeks is extremely difficult and only the better teams usually accomplish that. Clearly the Bills aren’t a great team. It’s almost “do or die” now for Eli Manning and com pay after their loss in Week 1. Expect to see a heavy dose of Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley as well, as he looks to ease the pressure off New York’s veteran pivot. 

The pick: The numbers are on our side as well, as note that Buffalo is a poor 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog and only 2-4 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Conversely, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a road loss vs. a division rival and 3-1 ATS in their last four off a loss by ten points or more to a division rival. Grab the points.

10* VERY EARLY COACH’S CORNER the New York Giants.

The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I think this number is a shade low. The visitors go with Robert Dugger, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner. 

The pitchers: Dugger (0-2, 4.29 ERA) has been more “miss” than “hit” this year, having allowed 11 walks in 21 frames of work thus far. 

Bumgarner (9-8, 3.77) most recently allowed two runs over six innings in a 4-2 loss to Miami earlier in the year. 

The pick: The Giants won 1-0 last night, but I expect much more of a “slug-fest” on Saturday (note as well that the numbers back us up, as Miami has seen the total go over the number in 21 of 35 vs. southpaws this season already, while SF has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six after shutting out it opponent in its last game. This number is low.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on on the over Marlins/Giants.

The set-up: TCU comes out of its bye week and I look for it to match pace with the home side. The Horned Frogs won’t be taking anything for granted after having lost three of their last four on the road dating to last year. TCU is 1-0 after beating up on Arkansas-Pine Bluff. So far the Horned Frogs have averaged 200 yards per game and allowed just seven points. But clearly TCU is in for a much stiffer test this evening. 

The pick: Purdue has won four of its last five home games. The Boilermakers have gotten 932 yards and nine TD’s from QB Elijah Sindelar and I look for the senior QB to open up the playbook tonight as well. He’ll have to, as note that Purdue is allowing 29 points and 447.5 YPG on the defensive side of things. TCU comes in rested and focused and knows it can’t rest on its heels if it has any hopes at an upset. Considering all of the above factors, I definitely feel this number is a little low.

10* totals play on OVER TCU/Purdue.

The set-up: Arizona State upset MSU last year and while I’m not calling for a repeat on Saturday afternoon, I do definitely think that the conditions are right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ASU admittedly faces a better team this year, but Herm Edwards’ side won’t be lacking for motivation or confidence. ASU QB Jayden Daniels had a 300 yard passing game last weekend. MSU is better against the run than the pass, so that plays into Daniels favor on Saturday. 

The pick: The Spartans rely heavily on their run game with Elijah Collins leading the charge, but QB Brian Lewerke still has a few question marks surrounding him in my opinion after a poor 2018 showing. With conference play starting next week, this also sets up as a natural “look ahead” spot for MSU. No outright, but closer than expected.

10* play on Arizona State.

The set-up: I had a play on Atlanta in its upset win over Max Scherzer and the Nationals last night and I look for it to get the job done here as well as the Braves continue to try and catch the Dodgers for the best record in the NL. The Nationals are still looking to lock down a wild card spot, but this is another mismatch in my opinion. The visitors go with Mike Foltynewicz, while the home side counters with Autin Voth.

The pitchers: Foltynewicz (6-5, 5.00 ERA) makes his eighth start since re-joining the team after a stint in the minors because of poor play. note that since he’s returned he’s gone 4-0 with a 2.95 ERA, including going 2-0 and allowing only one run over 12 innings in September. 

Voth (1-1, 4.00) has allowed four runs off seven hits over ten innings opposed vs. the Braves this year. 

The pick: With last night’s win the Braves magic number is now six games. No time to take the foot off the gas with the “promised land” so close. Great value on the surging visitors here.

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: This is the opener of a two game series between the teams, with the second one heading back East next weekend. Because of that, I believe each opens up the playbook on the West Coast and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Ottawa won’t be lacking for motivation that’s for sure after falling 46-17 to last place Toronto. Ottawa is just 3-8 overall and over its last three games it’s been outscored 107-42. One bright spot last week for the Redblacks was the play of QB Jon Jennings, who had 327 yards vs. the Argos. BC is just 1-10 and on a current seven-game losing streak. There’s no bigger disappointment in the entire league than these two teams.

The pick: Over the last three years, the over is 3-1-1 between the clubs. The players on both sides are now playing for a job for next season and because of that, I look for this total to fly over the posted number. 

10* CFL TOTAL OF MONTH on over Ottawa/BC.

The set-up: It’s the Washington State Cougars vs. the Houston Cougars and if you like offense, then this game is for you! WSU is ranked No. 20 after starting 2-0 and averaging 58.8 PPG. Houston simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up in my opinion. Note that WSU QB Anthony Gordon already has 884 yards and nine TD’s this season. Houston is 1-1, losing to Oklahoma in its opener, before beating Prairie View 37-17. 

The pick: Nine different players caught a pass for WSU last week. Keep your eyes on WSU RB Max Borghi as well, who is averaging 95 all purpose yards per game. D’Eriq King is a big time talent for the Cougars, but he lacks the talent around him to keep up down the stretch. Look for Gordon to keep up the blistering pace with his biggest game of the season. 

10* play on Washington State.

The set-up:

The pitchers:

The pick: 

10* UPPER-DECK DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: I’m making a play on both the side and the total in this game. If you’ve bought this package, then you know that I’m on the Tar Heels with the points here. After starting the year 2-0, I think that Wake is going to take a step back here. The Demon Deacons have a “cream puff” next weekend vs. Elon, before a gruelling upcoming schedule vs. Boston College, Louisville, Florida State and NC State. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!”

The pick: UNC has been better than advertised at 2-0 and I expect the visitors to once again lean heavily on RB Javonte Williams, who so far has 178 yards over two games. Additionally note that UNC has seen the total go under in its last five games after a win by six points or less in two straight games. This number is a shade high.

10* play on the under UNC/Wake.

The set-up: This is a big game early on for these NFC South opponents and because of that, I believe we’re going to see an all out war from start to finish. This game on the short week just screams defensive battle to me. The Bucs looked inept in their 31-17 loss to the 49ers. Carolina was on its heels early and it could never recover in its 30-27 setback to the Rams. With both divisional teams at 0-1, there’s no question that this sets up as a very important early game for both clubs.

The pick: Cam Newton and Jameis Winston both looked shaky in their respective openers. With both teams looking to protect the ball, to limit turnovers and costly mistakes, from a situational stand point everything clearly points to a lower-scoring affair, but note that the Bucs have seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in five of its last six after a loss by six points or less. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under.

The set-up: I had a play on the Braves last night and I think they offer great value to get the job done again here as the visiting side looks to put some final nails into the Phillies’ coffin as far as their playoff hopes are concerned. ATL has to be feeling confident as well in sending Julio Teheran to the hill, while the home side counters with Drew Smyly. 

The pitchers: Teheran (10-8, 3.31 ERA) most recently went six frames and gave up three hits, one run and struck out eight in a 5-4 win over Washington. In his career he’s 9-7 with a 3.71 ERA vs. Philadelphia. 

Smyly (4-6, 6.20) is coming off a decent outing, but note that he’s consistently been at his worst in all “home” situations this year, going just 1-4 with a ballooned 7.44 ERA.

The pick: ATL owns a 9.5 games lead over Washington, but it’s still three games behind the Dodgers for the top mark in the NL. This game means just as much for Atlanta: "This is what you sign up for," Atlanta catcher Brian McCann said. "This is what you love. You get into September baseball and you're close to the finish line. We've done a great job from day one." The Phillies are desperate, but I think Teheran is the difference maker here. I’m laying the short price and expecting a decisive decision. 

10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: I think this is ultimately a bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. Atlanta took the first game of this series, but the Phillies responded with a 6-5 victory in last night’ contest. I look for ATL to respond on Wednesday. The Braves go with Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Keuchel (7-5, 3.47 ERA) has allowed only three runs over his last five starts, going 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA in that span.

Eflin (8-11, 4.31) is 0-2 with a 19.06 ERA vs. Atlanta this year, allowing 12 earned runs over 5 2/3’s innings opposed. Most recently Eflin allowed six hits and two runs over five innings in a 5-4 loss to the Mets. 

The pick: Eflin hasn’t fared well vs. the Braves throughout his career, going just 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA. Despite yesterday’s loss Atlanta has won ten of its last 12 and I expect it to get back on track here in this important game. Lay the short price.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on Broncos. Oakland lost its top receiver in Antonio Brown over the weekend in a heated public dispute and I believe it struggles with its focus on Monday night. Denver on the other hand had a new head coach in Vic Fangio, as well as a new QB in veteran Joe Flacco. Combined with the Bronco’s stellar defensive unit, led by Von Miller, I think that the visitors will find a way to get the job done in Week 1. Remember that next year the Raiders leave to Las Vegas anyways, which will be Jon Gruden’s third year into his five year contract. 

The pick: But as mentioned off the top, this really comes down to the recent AB distraction. For months the Raiders have been preparing to have they dynamic receiver in their line-up and now that he’s done, I believe the one week transition period simply is not enough time. Look for Denver’s methodical approach to be the difference here vs. the short-handed home side. 

Denver Broncos 10* money-line

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular starting matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams, while the home side counters with veteran Madison Bumgarner. 

The pitchers: Williams (7-6, 5.16 ERA) has been much better of late and he’s had success vs. the Giants throughout his career, but I think that he’s simply in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Bumgarner (9-8, 3.81) owns a sub-par 3-5 record in eight regular season starts vs. the Pirates, despite owning a sharp 3.22 EA. 

The pick: This is a “must sweep” home stand for San Francisco if it has any hopes of staying in the playoff hunt. With their ace on the mound, I look for the Giants to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

10* COACHS CORNER on the San Fran Giants.

The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams. It’s a big game for many of the individual players today as well. Antonio Brown was cut by the Raiders and he just signed with the Patriots. He’ll be along side the controversial Josh Gordon now. Of course, AB is playing against his former team for the first time as well. The Steelers won’t be lacking for motivation here obviously facing AB and their most heated and  hated rival. Does anyone have more to prove on the field than Ben Roethlisberger? This is also the nationally televised contest, which puts added pressure on everyone. There’s no lack of experience or talent on the field of play today, but I believe the conditions are right for these two “under the radar” defense to “steal the show” in Week 1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 15 on the road, while NE has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. This one has low-scoring battle written all over it. Play the under.

Pittsburgh Steelers/NE Patriots UNDER 9* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Indianapolis has a lot of talent, but the Colts will clearly be looking for an identity moving forward after QB Andrew Luck shockingly announced his retirement from football just a couple of weeks ago. Jacoby Brissett is a capable QB, but the mental blow that Luck’s departure will have on this organization will clearly take some time to get over. 

The pick: Yes the Chargers are without RB Melvin Gordon, but I’ve always been of the thought that RB’s are replaceable in the NFL. The experience that Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers brings to the table is the difference maker here. Brissett only threw 15 passes in the preseason and he sat out the third and fourth games. Rest leads to rust for Brissett and the rudder-less Colts. Lay the money-line on the home side here.

LA Chargers Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: The Rams finally get a chance to take out their frustrations on someone after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Last year LA was 13-3. Carolina was 6-2 after the first eight weeks of action last season, but it then finished with a 7-9 overall record. A big difference for LA though to open the season is the health of RB Todd Gurley, who had to play through injury over the final month and a half. Receiver Cooper Kupp is back and healthy as well for LA after his season was cut short with an ACL tear. 

The pick: Panthers’ QB Cam Newton suffered a shoulder injury with two games left last year and he underwent surgery for the second time in three years this offseason. Newton was used sparingly in the preseason and sprained his ankle in Week 3 vs. the Patriots. Newton’s health is a concern for me and it makes the hungry and healthy the Rams the correct call in this one. Lay the short points.

LA Rams 10* play

The set-up: SDSU managed a win over FCS opponent Weber State last week, but it was anything but dominant. UCLA comes in off a poor performance vs. Cincinnati, but I think that the Bruins bounce back in friendly confines. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggled last week vs. the Bearcats, but I expect him to bounce back in friendly confines. That said, UCLA’s defense was a strength in the 24-14 setback. 

The pick: And that doesn’t bode well for SDSU QB Ryan Agnew, who last week completed only 16 passes for 108 yards. The Aztecs only managed 130 yards rushing last week as well. The Aztecs have history against them as well, as they’re 0-21-1 vs. the Bruins lifetime, getting outscored 695-241 in the process. I like Chip Kelly to settle down his troops and to deliver the goods at home. Lay the points.

UCLA 10* play

The set-up: No spoilers here, as I look for Iowa to lay the hammer down from start to finish. McClane Carter had 340 passing yards and two TD’s in Rutgers beatdown win over UMass, but clearly now the Scarlet Knights face an entirely different animal in the Hawkeyes. Also note that Carter was in fact picked off three times by the Minutemen. The Scarlet Knights looked good defensively in holding UMass to 14 points, but once again, clearly they’re going to have their hands full with this top tier opponent and in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Iowa QB Nate Stanley was 21 of 30 for 252 yards and three TD’s and no picks last week. He was complimented by RB Mekhi Sargent, who also had four catches for 65 yards (overall the Hawkeyes had 213 yards rushing.) I think Rutgers takes a step back after last week’s “cream puff.” Lay the points.

Iowa 8* play

The set-up: Clearly I’m not calling for an outright victory, but for a number of different reasons I do indeed feel that this spread is too large for the Demon Deacons to cover under the Friday Night lights. Wake Forest came from behind to knock off Utah State 38-35 last weekend and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. Rice lost 14-7 to Army, but the Owls were impressive from start to finish and I think they carry that momentum over here. 

The pick: Wake Forest had 579 yards last week, but they ran 58 times and threw 47. That translates into only 5.51 yards per play, which ranked 75th in the country. Army ran for 231 yards vs. Rice, but the Owls held the vaunted Black Knights to just 4.1 yards per attempt, the third best in the country of the 26 FBS defensive units which gave up more than 200 yards on the ground last week. The Owls looked bad offensively last week, but Army is stout. Note that Wake Forest allowed 596 total yards of offense to Utah State, including 416 through the air. I’m grabbing the points.

Rice 10* play

The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question in my opinion, I’m going to ultimately recommend that you grab as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two talented teams has its hands on the ball last. This is the league’s 100th anniversary season and this is in fact the oldest rivalry in the league. Chicago comes in off an impressive 12-4 campaign in 2018, but with the starters having seen extreme limited time in the pre-season, I believe the home side does indeed come out flat on Opening night. 

The pick: A 1-5 stretch during Nov-Dec. would de-rail the Packers last year and they’d go on to finish 6-9-1. Green Bay though is looking to jump-start its offense with Aaron Rodgers under center once again and it welcomes in new head coach Matt LaFleur, who was the offensive coordinator for the Rams and Titans the last two years. Last year these teams split out and everything once again points to a competitive battle this season. The Packers went out and completely re-vamped their defense as well this year and I believe the moves they made in the off-season pay early dividends. Grab the points.

Green Bay Packers 10* play

The set-up: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight, I’m definitely going to lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber. 

The pitchers: Nova (9-11, 4.48 ERA) has enjoyed success vs. the Tribe this year (1-1, 2.14 ERA in three outings), but he enters off back-to-back losses and I definitely think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Bieber (12-7, 3.27) enters off a loss despite allowing only three runs over seven inning with nine K’s. Note that Bieber has to be feeling confident here though as he’s 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four career match ups vs. the White Sox. 

The pick: Chicago has actually won eight of 14 meetings in the season series this year, so clearly the home side won’t be looking past its opponent today. This one has “blowout” written all over it.

Cleveland Indians -1.5 10* play

The set-up: While neither pitcher instills much confidence, Pittsburgh comes in as one of the hottest teams in the league right now and I believe it’ll carry that momentum over in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara, while the home side counters with Mitch Keller.

The pitchers: Alcantara (4-12, 4.22 ERA) allowed four runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to the Reds in his last outing.

Keller (1-3, 8.62) allowed eight runs over four innings vs. Philadelphia on Wednesday (striking out eight as well.) 

The pick: As mentioned off the top, these teams are moving in opposite direction, with Pittsburgh having won eight of its last ten and the Marlins having dropped 13 of their last 16. Look for these strong trends to continue on Monday night and lay this price with confidence. 

Pittsburgh Pirates 10* play

The set-up: I think that laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is the wise way to go in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Smyly, while the home side counters with Anthony DeSclfani. 

The pitchers: Smyly (2-6, 6.95 ERA) pitched well for his new team in his first two starts, but over his last five he’s posted a 7.20 ERA. With his team desperate for victories though, I believe that the veteran settles down here and matches pace with his overachieving counterpart.

Desclafani (9-7, 4.05) comes in off his best start of the year, going seven shutout vs. the Marlins on Wednesday. While he does have a winning record (3-1) vs. the Phillies, his ERA vs. them sits a poor 5.40 in that span.

The pick: Additionally note that Philadelphia is still a sharp 18-11 this season vs. the NL Central, while Cincinnati is just 15-16 vs. southpaws. As mentioned off the top, I like Smyly to match DeSclafani and in a scenario like that, I definitely think that the value swings to the hungry dog.

10* RUN-LINE BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The set-up: Big changes occurred for both teams in the off-season. Kyler Murray is gone from Oklahoma, and Ed Oliver has left for Houston. Both teams have new coaching staff as well. It’s interesting to note that when these two teams last battled, it was UH which scored the upset to open the 2016 season. While I’m not calling for the upset here, I do think that the stage is set for a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Sooners have been terrible defensively for years, but their offense has masked its inefficiencies. Alex Grinch is the new defensive coordinator for Oklahoma, but I still think the Sooners will struggle on that side of the ball this season. 

The pick: D’Eriq King is back for the Cougars after suffering an early injury last year and he has top RB Patrick Carr back as well (also top WR’s in Courtney Lark, Keith Corbin and Marquez Stevenson.) OU’s defense has been a disaster and while QB Jalen Hurts, a transfer from Alabama should make the offense one of the best in the nation again, the question marks defensively are the difference maker for me in the end. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CORNER on Houston.

The set-up: Lucas Giolito is putting together his finest season as a pro for the White Sox, but I still think he’s in over his head here vs. Braves’ veteran Julio Teheran and this locked in Braves home side. 

The pitchers: Giolito (14-7, 3.20 ERA) is coming off a loss to the Twins, allowing two runs over six innings. 

Teheran (8-8, 3.39) enters on top form, having posted 13 consecutive scoreless frames (a tiny 1.92 ERA over his last nine starts.)

The pick: Atlanta has taken the first two games of this series and I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas in the finale as well. Chicago on the other hand comes in with zero momentum, having lost five straight. I’m laying the very reasonable mid-sized price and expecting a rout. 

10* INTERLEAGUE SMASH-JOB on the ATL Braves.

The set-up: The Giants pulled away for a victory last night and I believe the home side will find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi, while the home side counters with Logan Webb.

The pitchers: Lucchesi (9-7, 4.11 ERA) is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts in San Francisco this year.

Webb (1-0, 4.66) makes his home debut tonight. So far he’s won at Arizona, before receiving a no-decision at Oakland. Two tough teams/venues. Now Webb benefits greatly from throwing in friendly confines.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is a poor 8-10 (-5.1 units) this season as a road favorite of -110 or higher, while San Fran is +11.3 units vs. the division. 

San Francisco Giants 10* play

The set-up: The Orange won’t be taking anything for granted in Week 1 after finishing 10-3 last year (6-2 in the ACC). Syracuse was invited the Camping World Bowl where it defeated WVU 34-18. The Flames finished 6-6 in 2018 and they still weren’t invited to go Bowling. Clearly Liberty will be out to score an early upset here after getting snubbed last season. 

The pick: The Orange were dominant defensively last year, but the unit has suffered turnover in the offseason. Syracuse has to deal with Maryland before a date vs. the Tigers, so I expect it to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring shootout (Note as well that the Orange have seen the total fly over the number in four of their last five as a road favorite.) This number is a little low.

Syracuse/Liberty OVER 10* play

The set-up: There’s no “warm ups” for these two teams as their ACC schedule kicks off in Week 1. BC will then face three straight teams which failed to make a bowl berth last year, so the “look ahead” angle definitely comes into play here for the home side in my opinion. The Hokies have ODU and Furman up next and I believe they come to play today. VT’s offense will have some work to do to catch up to its defense. 

The pick: And that’s bad news for BC’s offensive line, which is the biggest question mark heading into this season. The Eagles defense is also breaking in seven new starters. That doesn’t bode well for a team which had difficulties last year controlling the clock. VT has problems on the offensive side of things, but I believe it’s defense controls this game and I look for it to be the deciding factor in the final outcome. Lay the points.

Virginia Tech 10* play

The set-up: North Carolina welcomes back Mack Brown as head coach as he’ll look to re-ignite his former program. UNC turns to QB Sam Howell, while USC goes with Jake Bentley. This is a neutral site game, which levels the playing field somewhat. South Carolina has the advantage at QB, but otherwise I feel that UNC matches up well with the Gamecocks across the board. 

The pick: The Tar Heels have offensive weapons at RB and at WR and I think Howell can match pace with his veteran counterpart. Note as well that South Carolina is just 4-5 ATS in its last non-conference games, while UNC is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. the SEC. I’m banking on Brown’s guidance to keep this one closer than expected. Grab the points.

UNC 10* play

The set-up: Leicester has gotten out to a quick start as it’s unbeaten over its first three games with two draws and a victory. Last week it pulled away for a 2-1 win at Sheffield. Bournemouth on the other hand comes in off its first loss of the campaign, falling 3-1 to the reigning champs at the Etihad. So far Bournemouth has failed to impress and I believe it’ll have its hands full here in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Leicester won the last meeting between the clubs convincingly (2-0) and I believe a similar final result is in the cards here as well. In fact Bournemouth has posted just one victory in the last five in this series. The Foxes have already held Chelsea and the Wolves to a draw this season and after last week’s encouraging result, I look for them to lay the hammer down here as well. Lay the price.

Leicester City 10* play

The set-up: I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards in this one. The Buffs have a new head coach in Mel Tucker and he has 11 returning starters, including senior QB Steven Montez to build a foundation upon. Colorado State only had three victories last year and I look for the home side to take advantage of this favorable season opening matchup. 

The pick: Last year the Rams had one of the Nation’s worst defensive units, allowing 451.5 YPG and 36.8 PPG. Colorado has won four straight in this series (by an average margin of 21.5 points). Collin Hill is a talented QB, but he’s in over his head here in my opinion vs. the re-worked Buffs defense. I’m expecting a complete rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Colorado 9* play

The set-up: I believe these non-conference opponents open up the playbook on Friday night and I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Purdue went 6-7 in 2018, while Nevada was 8-5. But the Boilermakers overcame an 0-3 start to win six of their final nine games. The Wolfpack also started slowly by going 3-3, but they went 4-2 the rest of the way. 

The pick: Both teams return plenty of starters from last season and each will clearly be looking to “hit the ground running” in 2019 after their respective slow starts last year. In the end Nevada scored 25 or more points in nine of its 13 games, while Purdue would average just under 30 PPG last season. For all the situational reasons listed above, play the over.

Purdue/Nevada OVER 10* play

The set-up: Utah State was 11-2 in 2018. A big difference between this year and last for Utah State though is that head coach Matt Wells bolted for the Texas Tech job, meaning that Gary Andersen will be tasked to duplicate that mark. The Demon Deacons were just 7-6 overall last year, but they started slowly and closed strong. And that included two big victories right at the end, smashing Duke 59-7 in its regular season finale, before then holding on for a 37-34 victory over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl. Utah State benefits from having Jordan Love back at QB, but he now leads a mostly unproven unit moving forward. Wake has some issues on the defensive side, but it catches a break here in Week 1. Wake Forest is led by Jamie Newman and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal tonight as well. 

The pick: This is a “FIRST HALF” “money line” selection. I think Wake is going to find a way to get the job done in the first half. The Demon Deacons’ core group remains on both sides of the ball and I believe that’s going to translate into early success on the field of play. 

Wake Forest (vs. Utah St) 1st Half Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: This should be an interesting series. There’s no question that this is an interesting matchup on the mound, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular situation. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Anderson, while the home side goes with CC Sabathia. 

The pitchers: Anderson (10-9, 4.08 ERA) is a poor 1-4 with a 4.93 ERA over his last six starts. 

Sabathia (5-8, 4.99) has endured a difficult campaign, but he’s started to turn the corner of late by pitching seven innings in two starts since returning from a right knee injury.

The pick: Bad news for all teams, Yanks’ slugger Aaron Judge has finally snapped his cold streak, as the big man enters Friday hitting .277 with 18 homers, 42 RBI’s and a .900 OPS overall, but he returns home after going 14 of 39 (.359) with six homers and 11 RBI’s on his team’s most recent road trip. The A’s swept a three-game series from New York at home and revenge is clearly a dish best served cold. Lay the price.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the New York Yankees.

The set-up: The Utes are favored to win the Pac-12 Championship tho shear, with 15 returning starters from last years team. The Utes get the job done with a suffocating defense which has all four defensive linemen returning from a rushing defense which led the conference with just 1003 YPG. The Utes also have an experienced offense, with QB Tyler Huntley back under center, along with RB Zack Moss. 

The pick: BYU had a 20-point third-quarter lead over Utah a year ago, but it wound up losing 35-27 in the end. The Cougars have lost eight in a row in this series. BYU is once again led by QB Zach Wilson. The secondary for the Cougars took a hit with both Chris Wilcox and Troy Warner injured in camp. BYU has to keep Utah honest, so look for the home side to try and establish its run game throughout. When you add it all up, this one has “under” written all over it.

Utah/BYU UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Arizona State won’t be looking past Kent State here with what is expected to be a “wide open” Pac 12 South. Utah is the fav, but the Sun Devils will be pushing the pace from start to finish after watching Arizona blow its opener in Hawaii last weekend. Arizona actually finished second in the south last year, 7-6 overall and 5-4 in conference action. ASU has a tough matchup at No 18 Michigan State in Week 3, making this non-conference contest vs. the lowly Flashes that much more important. 

The pick: Kent State has zero bowl wins in its 99 year history. The Flashes were 1-7 in MAC action and 2-10 overall. Over the last six year they haven’t had a better record than 4-8. Ken State is led by Woody Barrett, who is a true dual threat. However, the tandem of QB Jayden Daniels and RB Eno Benjamin is going to prove to be too much for this porous Kent State defense to handle today in my opinion. Lay the points and expect a complete blowout.

Arizona St 10* play

The set-up: Neither team will start any of its starters tonight. So that means that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in my opinion. Tennessee was 0-4 SU/ATS last year and it’s 2-9 SU/ATS in the preseason dating back to 2017. 

The pick: Chicago comes in off a win over Indianapolis last weekend, erasing a 17-7 deficit by scoring 20 straight points. Keep your eyes on kick Eddy Pineiro, who had three extra points and two FG’s in the victory. I’m banking on Chicago’s backups carrying over that Week 3 momentum. Lay the points.

Chicago Bears 10* play

The set-up: Admittedly Coors Field is the great equalizer when it comes to pitching, but in this case I still think that Eduardo Rodriguez and the defending champs are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The visitors counter with the erratic Pete Lambert.

The pitchers: Rodriguez (15-5, 3.72 ERA) has been one of the best in the league over the last few months, going 11-2 with a 3.14 ERA over his last 17 trips to the hill. 

Lambert (2-4, 6.40) has gone 12 starts without a win and Colorado has gone just 2-10 in those games.

The pick: Boston’s disappointing season is coming to a close, but it still took the opener of this two-game series by a score of 10-6. Expect a similar outcome here as well and lay this price with confidence. 

Boston Red Sox 10* play

The set-up: I had a play on the Astros in their complete destruction of the Rays last night and I expect another high-scoring affair tonight. Perhaps not so lop-sided this time around though. The visitors hand the ball to Ryan Yarbrough, while the home side counters with Gerrit Cole.

The pitchers: Yarbrough (11-3, 3.29 ERA) has been sharp of late, going 1-0 with a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Yarbrough, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Cole (15-5, 2.75) has been brilliant over the last couple of months, going 11-0 with a 1.84 ERA. It’s VERY interesting to note though that he’s 0-2 with a 3.84 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa Bay. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 19 already this year on the road when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while Houston has seen the total go over in four of its last five after a win by five or more runs. This number is a little low.

Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays OVER 10* play

The set-up: This is the second leg of the Champions League playoff between APOEL Nicosia and host Ajax Amsterdam. And note, I believe it’ll be very similar to the first match in Cyprus, which saw these teams draw 0-0. The Dutch side had its hands full vs. the Cypriot team in the first match, and it will again here as well (note that the hosts actually have a poor home record, winning just once in five home matches in Champions League play.) 

The pick: So APOEL can not be taken lightly here at all, as it’s won four of its last six games in Champions League action. But note that the Cypriots have seen the total go under in seven of their last ten road Champions League matches. Ajax’s recent poor home record, combined with APOEL’s recent form makes the “under” the correct call in this one.

Ajax Amsterdam/Apoel Nicosia UNDER 10* play

The set-up: LA fell 4-3 to last night, but I think it’ll bounce back in what I believe to be a very favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler, while the home side goes with Cal Quantrill. 

The pitchers: Buehler (10-3, 3.16 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the hard-hitting Blue Jays, going seven shutout frames and striking out eight in the unfortunate no-decision. 

Quantrill (6-4, 3.32) is 4-2 with a 1.79 ERA since the Mid Summer Classic, but one of his two losses came against these very Dodgers on August 3rd, getting shelled for four runs over four innings.

The pick: Note as well that Buehler is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three career starts vs. the Friars. As good as Quantrill has been this year, I give the nod to the red hot Buehler. Combined with the revenge factor from last night’s loss, it does indeed make this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying.

LA Dodgers 10* play

The set-up: True that Padres starter Eric Lauer is 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA in six career starts vs. the Dodgers, but I think he’ll finally have his hands full tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Dustin May.

The pitchers: May (1-2, 4.26) faced the Padres on August 2nd at Dodger Stadium and he was shelled for four runs off nine hits over five innings. 

Lauer (6-8, 4.47 ERA) is 8-15 with a 5.47 ERA career record vs. the rest of the league. Suffice it to say, I believe this lop-sided trend of domination vs. the Dodgers comes to a predictable end here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers have seen the total go over the number in 15 of 19 this year on the road when the total is between 8 and 8.5, while the Padres have seen the total fly over in 21 of 18 this season at home with a total in the 8 or 8.5 range. This number is low, play the over.

LA Dodgers/San Diego Padres OVER 10* play

The set-up: I think the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely makes the Reds the correct call in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Sonny Gray, while the home side goes with Pablo Lopez. 

The pitchers: Gray (9-6, 2.92 ERA) is 6-1 with a 1.58 ERA over his past ten starts. 

Lopez (5-5, 4.23) has been out since June 15th because of a shoulder issue and I think he’ll predictably struggle in his first start back. 

The pick: Lopez is also 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in one start vs. Cincinnati this season. In three career appearances vs. the Fish, Gray is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds 10* play

The set-up: The Yanks won the opener 10-2, but the Dodgers took the second game 2-1. I believe we’ll see a similar final combined score as what we saw last night though once it’s all said and done with the Yankees’ Domingo German facing the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw. 

The pitchers: German (16-3, 4.15 ERA) enters off a rare poor performance, allowing six runs over six innings to the A’s. German though has been the model of consistency and clearly there’s no need to hit the panic button after one lousy outing.

Kershaw (13-2, 2.71) owns a 0.90 ERA over 20 innings faced vs. the Yanks (although he doesn’t have a decision yet.) So far all 22 of his starts have been six innings or more, with 19 of them as quality (and note that he hasn’t thrown more than 101 pitches in any outing.) 

The pick: I think German bounces back and there’s also no reason not to think that Kershaw can continue his resurgent season in friendly confines. When you add it all up, it makes this total a little high in my opinion. 

NY Yankees/LA Dodgers UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers have seen better campaigns, as each for the most part has struggled. Colorado won’t be going down without a fight today, but the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor at the end of the day. The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela, while the home side goes with Michael Wacha. 

The pitchers: Senzatela (8-7, 6.29 ERA) posted a 17.18 ERA over three July starts, which then saw him land in Triple-A because of it. He’s back today, but clearly he once again finds himself in a difficult spot. 

Wacha (6-6, 5.22) has seemingly started to turn things around, allowing just two runs over his last nine innings of work spanning two starts. 

The pick: After last night’s 6-0 win, St. Louis now holds a 1.5 games lead over the Cubs. Clearly the home side can ill afford to take the foot off the gas here. Lay the price. 

St. Louis Cards 10* play

The set-up: Suffice it to say, I’m expecting some goals to find the back of the net in this one. The Spurs welcome back Heung-min Son to the mix as well today, after taking four points from Villa and City.  

The pick: But Newcastle clearly won’t be going down without a fight here after a disappointing start to the campaign. The Magpies have lost both of their opening matches, including a 3-1 loss to Norwich City. Newcastle will once again have its hands full with the hosts aggressive attack, as its three-at-the-back system was clearly exposed last weekend. Newcastle boss Steve Bruce is on the hot seat already, meaning the visitors have to push the pace as well today. When you add it all up, I look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Tottenham/Newcastle OVER 10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the Chargers have already stated that starting QB Philip Rivers won’t see any action at all in this one. LA still has plenty of talent of course, but when looking for “difference makers” in the preseason (especially in Week 3, the all important “dress rehearsal”), then I do definitely believe that this is significant. 

The pick: I’m also partial to Seattle’s backup QB Geno Smith, who wlll reportedly see significant time here as well (the Hawks will also feature third stringer JT Barrett as well today). The Chargers turn to Tyrod Tyalor and Cardelle Jones, both of whom I believe will struggle vs. the Hawks’ aggressive defensive front. I’m banking on Wilson and company delivering the goods in Week 3. Play on the Hawks money-line.

Seattle Seahawks 10* play

The set-up: Real Salt Lake had its five match unbeaten streak ended with a 2-0 loss to LAFC last time out and clearly it’ll be out to atone for that. Colorado won’t be lacking for motivation here though after losing three of the last four in this series, as well as dropping three and drowning once in its last six overall. 

The pick: These teams have a history of playing to higher-scoring affairs, but the injuries to Real Salt Lake are real at the moment: Jordan Allen out with a knee injury; Tony Beltran out with knee injury and Nick Besler out with a foot injury and Aaron Herrera out after picking up a red card last match. With Colorado content to play a “war of attrition,” and considering the injuries to the home side, I believe this one falls well below the posted number once it’s all said and done.

Real Salt Lake/Colorado Rapids UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Outright upset? It’s not out of the realm of possibility at all in my opinion. After finishing 4-17 in 2017, the Gators went 10-3 in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach. That included a win over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. While QB Feleipe Franks is back under center for Florida, the big question mark for the Gators (and I think it’s significant in Week 1), is that there are four new starters on the offensive line. 

The pick: Miami was just 7-6 last year. Manny Diaz is now the head coach for the Hurricanes and he went out and grabbed a top play-caller in Dan Enos. Jarren Williams beat out N’Kosi Perry and Tate Martell for the starting QB position for the home side. Williams had two of the ACC’s top receivers in Coral Gables and buffalo transfer KJ Osborn. The uncertain up front for Florida makes the Hurricanes the correct call in Week 1 in my opinion. Grab the points.

Miami Florida 10* play

The set-up: While neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence, I still think that this number is high. After the Marlins’ 19-11 slug-fest victory yesterday, I think the stage is set for more of a “duel” on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Efin (7-11, 4.57 ERA) is 3-2 with a 4.37 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Marlins.

Yamamoto (4-4, 4.31) struck out a career-high nine batters over six innings in a no-decision to the Rockies on Sunday and he’s 1-0 with a 3.99 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies this year. 

The pick: Note that Philly slugger Bryce Harper remains out of the line-up, as he’s expecting a new child. I think these hungry starters throw deep and I look for this total to indeed sneak under once it’s all said and done.

Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Sheffield United is unbeaten so far in the campaign, but I believe that string runs out here. The Foxes won’t be lacking for motivation here after only picking up two points through two games. Last weekend they drew with Chelsea 1-1 at Stamford Bridge. 

The pick: The Blades have so far proved the doubters wrong, but the step up vs. the Foxes, who won’t be taking anything for granted after back-to-back draws (and while that doesn’t look very impressive on paper, Leicester has been dominant in both matches in time of possession and I believe that finally works in its favor today. Great value on the “better/more experienced” club. 

Leicester City 10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one, as I believe the massive talent discrepancy on the mound should make the visitors a much bigger fav in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Lance Lynn, while the home side goes with Dylan Cease.

The pitchers: Lynn (14-8, 3.60 ERA) while 0-2 over his last two starts, Lynn sports a tiny 2.65 ERA in that span. 

Cease (2-6, 5.93) started off his career well enough, but he’s since gone 1-6 with a terrible 6.00 ERA over his last seven starts. 

The pick: Note that Lynn has dominated this matchup throughout his career as well, going 4-1 with a 3.04 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Chi-Sox. Cease on the other hand has pitched past the fifth frame just twice in his last six starts. Lay the mid sized price and expect a blowout.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Texas Rangers.

The set-up: Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has his team 2-0 in the preseason after going 3-5 under his tenure over the previous two seasons. Matt Patricia is now just 1-4 in the preseason as head coach of the Lions after starting the season 0-2. With most of Detroit’s starting offense sitting this one, I have a hard time seeing the Lions getting much production tonight. Detroit starting QB Matthew Stafford is expected to see extreme limited time and the back-ups for the home side have so far struggled to find consistency (original backup Tom Savage is injured with concussion and David Fales and Josh Johnson have both been poor thus far.) 

The pick: Buffalo has gotten strong play from its QB’s (Josh Allen, Matt Barkley), but I’m expecting a more conservative game tonight from the visitors (keep your eyes on Buffalo RB’s Tyree Jackson, LeSean McCoy and TJ Yeldon. The stage is set for a defensive battle in my opinion, as I’m expecting this total to stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the under Bills/Lions.

The set-up: The Mets have rolled to victory in the first two games of this series and I believe the home side will once again find a way to get the job done here in what shapes up to be another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The sliding AL visiting side hands the ball to Aaron Civale, while the NL home side counters with Noah Syndergaard.

The pitchers: Civale (1-2, 1.50 ERA) most recently allowed three runs off eight hits with two walks over six innings in a loss to the Yanks on Friday. Civale has been good in his limited time, but clearly he faces a difficult task in this difficult road venue tonight.

Syndergaard (8-6, 3.86) gave up two runs while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the Royals on Friday. It was his seventh quality start since the All Star break, a span in which he’s posted a 2.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 50:12 K:BB over 48.1 frames. 

The pick: Cleveland’s “desperate,” but it continues to get shaky starting pitching and it’s line-up continues to struggle at the plate. And I don’t see those trends changing vs. the red hot Mets. All things considered, this is an awesome price. Lay it.

NY Mets 10* play

The set-up: Milwaukee is desperate, but the Cardinals’ momentum is for real right now in my opinion and i believe the home side executes the series sweep tonight. The visitors go with Adrian Houser, while the home side turns to veteran Adam Wainwright.

The pitchers: Houser (5-5, 3.76 ERA) enters off a song start vs. the Nationals on Friday, allowing just one run over seven innings. Note though that he’s 0-1 with a 6.53 ERA in three career appearances vs. St. Louis. 

Wainwright (9-8, 4.33) has to be feeling confident here as he’s 16-8 with a 2.33 ERA in 39 career appearances vs. Milwaukee. 

The pick: Note as well that Houser is 4-0 with a 1.47 ERA in 17 outings as a reliever this year and only 1-5 with a 5.28 ERA in ten starts. This is a great price. Lay it with confidence.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Cardinals.

The set-up: This is an important game for both teams, despite not playing in the same League. The Indians though have a big advantage on the mound and in my opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in the visitors favor tonight. Cleveland sees Shane Bieber take the hill, while the home side goes with Stephen Matz.

The pitchers: Bieber (12-5, 3.27 ERA) comes in off a no-decision vs. the Red Sox on Wednesday, allowing two earned runs off seven hits while striking out seven over six innings. 

Matz (7-7, 4.33) who has looked better of late, but who is still only 5-5 with a 4.86 ERA in all “night” games. 

The pick: The Mets have been cursing of late, winning 18 of their last 23, but their schedule gets much tougher moving forward. Note that Bieber has allowed just eight earned runs over his last 38 innings while posting a 44:5 K:BB in that span. Matz has been better at home than on the road this season, but I still think he’s in over his head in this one. Lay the price.

10* DESTRUCTION

The set-up: While Ivan Nova hasn’t had a great overall season for the White Sox, he’s been a bit better of late. Kyle Gibson though is a big reason why his team will be in the postseason this year. Admittedly neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence, but I still believe this number is high.

The pitchers: Nova (8-9, 4.51 ERA) has actually won four of his last five stars and he enters off a 4-1 complete-game effort over the hard-hitting Astros on Tuesday, allowing four hits and one unearned run. Over his last two starts Nova has conceded nine hits, three walks and an unearned run. 

Gibson (11-5, 4.28) gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. 

The pick: Note that Nova is 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA in six career appearances vs. the Twins as well, while Gibson is 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the White Sox. Expect these two hungry starters to battle deep.

10* TOTAL OF WEEK on under White Sox/Twins.

The set-up: This will be Denver’s third preseason game, as it played in the Hall of Fame Game as well. The Broncos lost four straight to end the regular season last year and they have high hopes with veteran QB Joe Flacco. Denver fell in Seattle last week and Flacco saw limited time in that one. He should see a bit more here, but the veteran will of course be saved for the official Week 3 preseason contest. 

The pick: San Francisco was just 4-12 in 2018 and it’ll be expecting big things from QB Jimmy Garappolo. But the 49ers’ defense was impressive in its Week 1, 17-9 win over the Cowboys. Backup San Fran QB CJ Beathard had a TD pass in the victory. With Denver’s starting defense seeing limited time, I believe Beathard is a difference maker in this one tonight. Grab as many points as you can.

10* COACH’S CLINIC on the San Francisco 49ers.

The set-up: Trevor Bauer threw a gem in his first start for his new team, but he was then blown up for one of his worst starts of his career last time out. Erik Lauer has had an up and down season for the Padres as well and he’s been especially poor on the road. I think that Bauer can bounce back here and I believe that Lauer’s road issues continue in this difficult venue.

The pitchers: Lauer (6-8, 4.55 ERA) gave up three runs to the Rays on Tuesday and overall he’s just 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA on the road.

Bauer (10-9, 4.12) gave up nine runs over four innings in a 17-7 blowout loss to the Nationals in his last start. 

The pick: This is a big game for the Reds, who come in having lost six of their last eight. San Diego is still without the services of slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. as well, still sidelined with injury. After back-to-back poor outings, I believe that Bauer gets back on track at home. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds 10* play

The set-up: The Vikes rolled to a big 34-25 road victory in New Orleans, but I believe they’ll have a much more difficult time here vs. the hard-hitting Seahawks. Seattle enters off a 22-14 home win over Denver. Seattle was 10-6 in the regular season last year, but 0-4 in the preseason. That included a 21-20 loss to these very Vikings. Can anyone say “revenge” spot? 

The pick: The Vikes offense looked great against a terrible Saints secondary, but Seattle used six of its 11 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball and it just held Denver to 291 total yards. Outright victory?! Very possible of course, but in the end I’m grabbing the points.

Seattle Seahawks 10* play

The set-up: Saint Etienne enjoyed a massive home pitch advantage last year, earning 41 of a possible 57 points, winning 13 games and losing only four. And note, three of its four losses were vs. clubs that finished above it in the standings (PSG, Lille and Lyon), as its form on the “lesser competition” was completely dominant. St. Etienne retains its core from last year and it started off the season with a convincing 2-1 win over Dijon. 

The pick: Brest is newly promoted. Brest had a great campaign in Ligue 2, but while it had the best home form in the league, its away form was just third best, picking up 31 points from 19 games. I think Brest struggles with its form in this difficult venue. Lay the price.

AS Saint Etienne 10* play

The set-up: I think this is a starting match-up on the mound that heavily favors the visitors. The Twins see Jose Berrios toe the slab, while the home side hands the ball to Ariel Jurado.

The pitchers: Berrios (10-6, 3.29 ERA) is 2-4 over his last 11 starts, but he enters off a decent outing, giving up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Sunday. 

Jurado (6-8, 5.31) enters off a 19-4 loss to the Jays on Monday, allowing 11 hits and eight runs over three innings. 

The pick: Minnesota’s won the first two games of this series, 13-6 on Thursday and 4-3 last night. Normally I would consider this a “letdown” spot, but with just a few weeks left in the regular season, the Twins lead over the Tribe is only 1.5 games. Expect the hard-hitting visiting side to keep the foot on the gas.

Minnesota Twins 10* play

The set-up: These clubs have been practicing against each other all week and I believe that’s going to lead to some heated rivalry in this Week 2 action. Detroit got humiliated at home in Week 1 by the Patriots and they’ll be out to atone for that performance. Especially on the defensive side. In all the Lions offense mustered just a field goal in last week’s loss and I think the unit will have a difficult time moving the chains this weekend as well. Since Matt Patricia took charge in Detroit the Lions are now just 1-4 SU/ATS. Once again starting QB Matt Stafford is expected to see limited to no tie in this one. Houston lost in Green Bay last week. The Texans will be amped up here to play their first game in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Houston won’t be playing much (if any) of starting QB DeShaun Watson today either. The Texans are down to third string QB right now after AJ McCarron went down with a thumb injury. This one has “chess match” written all over it.

Detroit Lions/Houston Texans UNDER 10* play

The set-up: After a slow start, the Stampeders can ill afford to take the foot off the gas for the rest of the season. Calgary is in the playoff mix and I think it’ll pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. A victory today and the Stamps are in a tie for first place in the division, but a loss and they could wind up all the way in fourth. Note that while covering only once in four games at home this year, Calgary is still 3-1 SU. And despite the Als being 9-2 ATS in their last 11, I definitely believe that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: The Alouettes are getting QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback this week, but one has to wonder how effective they’ll be after each sat out last weekend with injury? The Stamps have finally adjusted to QB Nick Arbuckle running the show, entering this one having gone 4-2 SU in their last six. I’m banking on Montreal finally taking a step back here vs. this determined home side. Lay the points.

Calgary Stampeders 10* play