The Eagles have home field and the crowd on Sunday, but face a 49ers team that has been completely dominant in the second half of the season. Both teams are healthy but the 49ers face some question marks around Samuel and their starting running backs. Philadelphia whipped the Giants, but it has not been smooth sailing while Hurts was injured.  He put concerns about his shoulder to rest last week but faces the league's best run defense this week and will likely have to throw the ball more. The SF defense is more susceptible in the air and has also not faced a good rushing QB since Mariotta and the Falcons.  Atlanta won that game convincingly.

49ers' QB Purdy has been an eye-opener this season. He does what he is told to do more than competently, and with very few mistakes.  The kid appears to have ice water in his veins, but he did struggle against a very good Cowboys pass defense and saw his passer rating drop by 40 points last week.  The 49ERS are a rush-first team, but the bulk of their points still come in the air.  While they can be run on, the Eagles have THE elite pass defense in the league and pressure a passer like no-one else.
I have waffled about this game, but believe the variety of the Eagles' offense will win out in the end.  Hurts does too many things well to discount and has experience on his side.  Purdy will have to be better than he ever has been under intense pressure from the crowd, nerves and that superlative Eagles pass defense.  Take the Eagles to win and cover.

Ed Cooley and Providence are doing it again as the Friars come into Sunday on a nice 11-2 run. They are ranked #23 in the country.

If you recall, Providence was considered one of the luckiest teams in the country last season as they won a ton of close games. This year has been a little different. Only three of those 11 wins since the beginning of December have been by single digits.

But the Friars are just a short favorite here at Villanova. If this line “flips” (i.e. Nova ends up being favored), it will put a fascinating trend in play. This season, unranked favorites are 19-9 ATS when taking on a Top 25 foe.

Regardless of where the line ends up though, I am taking Nova here. Providence’s two losses this month both were on the road - at Marquette and at Creighton. The Friars shot the lights out earlier this week vs. Butler and I see some shooting regression taking place today.

Villanova is 6-2 at home. There are three areas which will serve them well in this matchup. The Wildcats are very good at limiting opponents’ two-point shooting, free throw attempts and second chance opportunities, all strengths of this Providence team. Lastly, ‘Nova has been off for nine days and should be well prepared for this contest. 10* 

Portland has strung together consecutive home victories (beating San Antonio and Utah) and will now look to make it three in a row as they host Toronto (who is in the second game of a back to back). 

The Blazers beat the Spurs 147-127 in a game where I laid the -9. Then they beat the Jazz 134-124 as 3.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

It’s a massive edge in rest for the home team tonight as, like I said earlier, Toronto was in action last night. Unfortunately, that result didn’t work out too well for me as I had the Under in their 129-117 loss to the Warriors.

Typically, spots like this have been good to back the Blazers. They are 6-1 ATS this season when coming off three or more consecutive home games.

This will be the fourth time Toronto finds itself playing in the second of back to back road games with no rest in between. They’ve lost each of the last three times by an average of 8.3 points. 10*

Ohio State has been the unluckiest team in the country so far, but I think that changes tonight at Indiana. 

The Buckeyes had a nice 93-77 win at home over Iowa last Saturday, but then reverted back to their losing ways by falling at Illinois 69-60 as 3.5-point dogs. That was on Tuesday. OSU is now 1-6 straight up and against the spread over its last seven games.

But four of those six losses have come by four points or less. Really, the Buckeyes could have won any of those. 

Indiana had its own poor stretch, losing six of nine while going 1-8 ATS. But the Hoosiers have now won four in a row, beating Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State and Minnesota.

Looking at this matchup from a market perspective, I say it’s a good spot to buy low on Ohio State while simultaneously selling high on Indiana. 

KenPom has Ohio State ninth in the country in offensive efficiency and 20th overall. Both those rankings are higher than Indiana. I’ll take the points and won’t be surprised if this turns into an outright upset. 10*

Boston, off a rare loss on Thursday, will be taking no prisoners tonight.  The Bruins are 8-2 in recent action and a very good road team.  The Bruins have a fine 1-2 combination; 1st in defense and PK, and 2nd in goals-scored.  Add in a 3rd-ranked haymaker of a power play and fine goal-tending, and they are a formidable opponent on any night.  The Panthers are a sub-.500 team this year with solid offense, but their defense is poor across the board. They've lost three straight on the road, including yesterday's late night game vs the Kings, and travel to meet the Bruins at home today. Very poor schedule planning..
Swayman is expected to start for the Bruins.  He has been very sharp in his last 5 appearances, with a .950+ save % in those starts.  The goalie situation is less clear for the Panthers with Bobrovsky out and Knight just back from the minors.
Boston is favored tonight, but I am actually surprised that this line is available. This is a very unfavorable situation for the Panthers. Take the Bruins to win.

Florida Atlantic has still not lost a conference game this season, one of only seven teams that can say that. While the Owls probably won’t lose today, I do think that it’s too many points they are laying to Western Kentucky.

WKU is at the opposite end of the C-USA spectrum currently. The Hilltoppers are 3-7 SU in conference play after dropping four in a row.

But you may recall, I had them against FAU earlier this month. It looked like it was maybe going to be an upset with WKU ahead in the second half. But the Hilltoppers fell apart late and lost by 14. They haven’t won since.

They certainly remember that game though and should come out motivated to knock off a team now ranked in the Top 25. FAU has had plenty of close wins so far, six by four or less to be precise. Their luck is probably due to end at some point.

How about here? Western Kentucky has been a double digit dog only one time all year and that was when they knocked off UAB. Take the points. 10*

Auburn just had a five-game win streak snapped on Wednesday, losing to Texas A&M 79-63 as a 3.5 point home favorite. Now they hit the road and head into unfamiliar territory as part of this SEC vs. Big 12 Challenge.

While West Virginia is having a “down” year, Morgantown is still not an easy place to win at, if you are the road team. WVU also carries a lot of respect here. This will be the third straight home game where they go off as the favorite against a Top 25 opponent. They beat TCU here, but lost to Texas.

Auburn isn’t as good as either TCU or Texas, nor is the SEC as good as the Big 12.

Furthermore, WVU just clobbered Texas Tech on the road earlier this week, winning 76-61 as a 3.5 point dog. I’ll take that as a sign Bob Huggins' team is starting to “figure things out.” 

Yet, I don’t want to lay points against an Auburn team coming off a bad loss. So let’s play the Under instead. It’s cashed in three straight WVU games and Auburn is shooting under 30% for the year from three. But the Tigers can defend. They are holding teams below 39% overall from the field. 8* 

The Raptors have covered the spread in each of their last three games and just started what will eventually be a seven-game road tip by beating Sacramento 113-95 as a three-point underdog. That was after beating the Knicks at home, 125-116, on Sunday.

Golden State has alternated wins and losses over its last seven contests and is coming off a wild last-second win over Memphis. But as 122-120 winners of that game, the Warriors did not cover as 3.5-point favorites.

We know how bad Golden State has been on the road this year, but at home they are 18-6 and putting up 119.2 points/game. That being said, the O/U line for tonight looks high to me. The market seems to agree.

Despite those numbers mentioned above, the Under is 10-3-1 in the Warriors’ last 14 home games. The total for tonight is higher than the average number of points scored in games here this season.

I also expect Toronto to not shoot as well as they have been recently. The L5 games have seen the Raptors make 49% of their FG attempts. For the season, this is a team shooting only 45% from the floor. Take the Under. 10* 

After a poor performance against the lowly Blackhawks, Calgary travels to Seattle in a back to back situation.  The Flames are below .500 in January and barely over .500 on the road this year.  The Kraken are 7-3 in their last ten games, and have an extra day's rest after thumping the Canucks on Wednesday.  The Kraken have a very fine offense this year and have the edge over Calgary at five on five play.  Tonight's likely goalie Martin Jones has had some excellent outings lately and is 9-1 in January.

The Flames have had their way with Seattle in past meetings,  but Calgary is not the powerhouse, nor the road warriors of last year.  Look for a little pay-back as Seattle wins against a tired and travelling Flames team.

I came up short with my Summit League Game of the Month last night, but that’s where we’ll stay for tonight’s lone College Basketball selection as we’ve got the “battle of North Dakota” with North Dakota taking on North Dakota State. 

Just to reiterate what I wrote yesterday, everyone in this league is chasing Oral Roberts, who has yet to drop a conference game. Nobody is further off the pace than North Dakota, who at 1-8 SU in league play finds itself in last place.

But I believe this to be an excellent time to take the points with the Fighting Hawks. While they came up short (again) Monday at Western Illinois, four of their previous five conference losses had been by six points or less.

North Dakota State has dropped back to back games, both here at home, as they were smashed by Oral Roberts, then lost by 2 to UMKC despite shooting 55% from the field.

North Dakota certainly remembers what happened the first time these teams met, which was a horrible 22-point home loss for them. They’ll be out for revenge here and, at the very least, should get the cover. I don’t see NDSU matching its shooting from last Saturday (against UMKC) nor do I see ND shooting as poorly as they did in the first meeting. Take the points here. 10*  

The Pacers snapped a seven-game losing streak on Tuesday as they rallied back from a 20+ point deficit to defeat the Bulls 116-110 here at home. But then they immediately reverted back to their losing ways, falling the next night in Orlando by a score of 126-120. 

While struggling recently, Indiana has already exceeded its projected win total (23.5) from the preseason. So, in that regard, the season is already a success! But this is a team that can make the playoffs in the depth-shy Eastern Conference (at least the play-in round) so I don’t see them “phoning it in” even after going Over their win total.

Milwaukee is near the top of the East, which is what you’d expect, but they had problems beating a severely undermanned Denver team two nights ago. The Nuggets were without four key players, Nikola Jokic being one of them, and yet still ended up making a game of it. The final score of 107-99.

That was the Bucks’ first game without the injured Bobby Portis. They’ve struggled on the road this year, going just 12-12 with a -3.8 point/game differential. I want no part of laying this many points on the road with the Bucks, even if they’ve beaten the Pacers nine straight times.

Indiana plays hard almost every night, even without leading scorer Haliburton. They are 16-9 SU and 16-8-1 ATS at home. Had it not been for a terrible 1st quarter against Orlando, they likely could have come back and won that game. I’ll take the points here. 10*

A late night affair in the Pac 12 sees two teams on four-game Over streaks facing off as Washington hosts Arizona State.

Arizona State got off to a great start to the year, but no one really believed in them and that lack of belief is starting to bear out. The Sun Devils have lost two in a row, albeit to UCLA and USC. 

Meanwhile, after losing five in a row, Washington was able to win three straight, all against bottom teams in the Pac 12. But then the Huskies lost badly on Saturday, 86-61 at Utah.

ASU may not be an elite team overall, but they are top 50 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

I think this number is too high due to Washington getting blitzed in its last game, something that won’t happen here at home. Play the Under. 8* 

Dallas really needs to get going as they’ve dropped five of six, including a 127-126 loss at home Tuesday to a Washington team that was playing short handed. That was despite 41 points from Luka Doncic. That particular game was decided on a made free throw in the final 4.1 seconds.

The Mavs are still top six in the Western Conference, but this losing streak has created a sense of urgency. Seven teams are within two games of them, which means missing the playoffs (while unlikely) is not out of the question.

One of those seven teams on the Mavs’ heels is Phoenix. Actually these teams are tied with matching 25-24 SU records. But the Suns have won four in a row after being dreadful for most of January. They’ve covered the spread all in all four games, all of which were here at home.

Last time these teams met, Dallas won by 19 at home. I still think they are the better team and Phoenix is just 6-12 ATS in revenge spots this season.

Three of those last four Suns’ victories were by five points or less and the other one was against Charlotte where they shot a blistering 55 percent from three. While healthier than they were a couple weeks ago, the Suns are still without Devin Booker. Look for Doncic to lead Dallas to a victory here. 10*

Anaheim has won two of their last three games, but they have been picking the low-hanging fruit, so to speak, win victories over Arizona and Columbus.  Their recent losses have all been by wide margins.  The Ducks are not good at all on the road, and have allowed more than 5 goals a game on average in their recent losses.  The Avs have won 6 straight, and have been particularly stingy in goals-allowed, with just 8 in total in those 6 games.  

The Ducks are 31st in goals scored and worst in the league in goals allowed.  Their PK is equally poor.  Goalie John Gibson shut out the Jackets, but otherwise has given up nearly 6 goals a game in recent appearances. The Avalanche offense has been slow to develop this year, but is starting to come, and certainly the potential is there.  Their power play is in the top ten, and the Ducks are one of the league's most penalized teams.

Look for another lopsided victory for the Avs tonight and take Colorado on the puck line (-1 1/2).

South Dakota State, like everyone else in the Summit League, is chasing an Oral Roberts team that is undefeated in conference play. But nobody’s closer than SDSU, who is two games back of the “summit” (i.e first place). The Jackrabbits begin a three-game road swing tonight against one of the weaker teams in the league, St. Thomas (MN).

St. Thomas just got done with their own three-game road trip and that did not go well. The Tommies lost all three games, two of them by double digits. Now they are unbeaten at home, winning all nine game straight up and covering all seven vs. DI opponents. But the trends don’t really support that streak continuing here as the team is 4-12 ATS when off a conference loss since joining DI three seasons ago. 

Also, these teams already met once and South Dakota State won 71-64 as a 4.5-point favorite. 

The bottom line is that I don’t think returning home is enough for St. Thomas here. They’ve never beaten SDSU in three previous tries and the road team is rolling right now, with a four-game SU win streak that has seen them cover the spread in three straight. 10*

Over the course of this entire season, the Bulls have generally been a “streaky” team. Rarely, do they not win or lose multiple games in a row. So, coming off a 116-110 loss to Indiana (where they blew a 21-point lead), now is probably not the time to back this team. 

But the Bulls are facing Charlotte tonight. The Hornets certainly aren’t any good; they own the league’s third worst win percentage and are 4-12 straight up/4-11-1 against the spread since Christmas. I certainly don’t want to back them here either.

But I do want to play the Over. Charlotte has allowed a minimum of 116 points over each of its last nine games. They just gave up 128 to Phoenix on Tuesday. The Suns were able to shoot 55% from three in that game.

There are only two teams in the league - Detroit and San Antonio - that are allowing more points per game than the Hornets. 

While Chicago has gone Under in three straight, their last five games have still averaged more than 230 points. I think we get Over this number tonight as the Over has hit the last five times the Hornets have been off a double digit loss, not to mention 8 of the last 10 times they’ve hosted the Bulls. 10*

I think we’re in store for a pretty low-scoring affair tonight as two of the best Mountain West teams hook it up. San Diego State is hosting Utah State. SDSU has won eight of nine to surge into first place. They are deserved favorites here, but are also just 1-7 ATS at home this season.

Utah State has won six of eight, but has failed to cover three straight. On paper, the Aggies look to have the offensive edge in this matchup, but SDSU is holding teams to 60.9 points/game when here at home.

This is a high total for a game involving San Diego State. Only twice this season have they seen a higher O/U line. Both of those games stayed Under.

Even for Utah State, the number looks high. Only two of their last six games have seen a higher O/U line and one of those stayed Under.

A recent rash of Overs from both sides has clearly inflated this number. No San Diego State home game has had a total close in the 140 to 144.5 range while the same is true for Utah State road games. Take the Under. 10*

Golden State may be the defending NBA Champions, but right now they are looking up at Memphis in the standings. In fact, the Warriors are only 10th in the West entering Wednesday and a game below .500. The Grizzlies are 31-16 and in second place.

But all of a sudden the Grizz have dropped three straight after previously winning 11 in a row. Two of the losses were close, but then Monday saw them get blown out 133-100 in Sacramento. Ja Morant didn’t play in that game, however.

The Grizzlies defense was atrocious in that game as they let the Kings hit 12 of 13 three-point attempts in the first quarter! Morant being back here won’t solve that issue, especially against a team like the Warriors.

Meanwhile, there hasn’t been a Warriors’ game with fewer than 234 points scored since January 7th. 

So expect plenty of points tonight on ESPN. The Over has hit the last four times Golden State has been off a loss, which they are here. These are two of the six teams in the league currently averaging at least 117 points/game. 10*

The Oilers have won six straight games, and are now just four points back of the Division-leading Golden Knights.  With a light schedule this week, the Oilers  face the Blue Jackets after three days rest.  Edmonton has scored 31 goals in their 6 games win streak. This recent surge is largely a reflection of very good secondary scoring behind the the stellar offensive duo of MCD and Draisaitl.

Columbus is 3-7 in their last ten games and has allowed an average of 4 goals a game in their last three.  They are a very poor team on the road this season, and are still not out of the woods as far as injuries go.  Columbus is 30th in goals-allowed and face a hard-charging Oilers team with a fine and improving offense and the top-ranked power play in the league.  Look for the favored Oilers to pad their win streak with  a one-sided victory against the Jackets.  Take the Oilers on the Puck line at -1 1/2. 10*!

We’re digging deep for the latest Game of the Month selection, heading to the Big South on Wednesday. Gardner Webb and USC Upstate both find themselves “middle of the pack” in the conference right now, so what’s the edge? Read on …

USC Upstate is just not good on the road. The Spartans are 2-9 this season when not playing at home and they are losing by an average of double digits. Part of that is they only average 62.9 points/game away from home.

Sure enough, USC Upstate is coming off a 64-58 loss to UNC Asheville on Saturday. 

Gardner Webb won at Winthrop over the weekend, but pushed as two-favorites. That makes it six straight games without a cover for the Runnin’ Bulldogs. But this is a buy low spot. 

The home team has double revenge from last season. Meanwhile, SC Upstate has just one win in the last four games overall and it was by a single point over the last place team in the conference. I’m laying the points. 10*

Wyoming’s luck is due to turn, sooner rather than later, and we may have seen the start of it Saturday night when the Cowboys edged Colorado State 58-57 in Laramie. Tonight, they’ll hit Vegas to face UNLV and I see this as being a pretty generous spread given the Runnin’ Rebels’ own perilous state. 

UNLV has dropped four in a row and six of seven. They have just one win by more than seven points since December 4th. So they are not an ideal candidate for the favorite role and if you need that point to be reaffirmed, know that the Rebels are 1-6 ATS laying points at home this season.

Hunter Maldanado is back for Wyoming, which is huge. After missing the loss to Air Force, Maldanado didn’t shoot the ball particularly well vs. Colorado State. But I expect a better individual effort in his second game back.

Looking at the eight-game losing streak Wyoming was on - before beating Colorado State - they fell to a number of good teams. Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State and New Mexico are the top four in the Mountain West and there were out of conference defeats at the hands of St. Mary’s and Dayton.

I like the underdog to control pace and cover the number in this one. 10*

The Clippers finally seem like they’re putting it together, albeit it’s only been two straight wins and one of them was against San Antonio. But they also won 112-98 in Dallas on Sunday thanks to a dominant second half performance. I like them here to cover against the Lakers.

The Lakers have also won two straight, but both were miracle comebacks as they trailed Memphis by seven with three minutes to go (won 122-121) and then Portland by 25 at halftime (won 121-112). I don’t see this as a sustainable blueprint for success.

The Clippers are 2-0 vs. the Lakers so far this season, winning by six as the “road team” and 13 as the “home team.” (Both teams play here at the Crypto.com Arena, obviously). The Clippers have won and covered four straight when listed as “the road team” in this rivalry.

The Lakers are just 1-8 ATS vs. the rest of the division in 2022-23. Over the last three seasons, they are 14-30 ATS in division games.

When the Clippers are at full strength, as they are now, they are simply better than the Lakers. LeBron has little help. Kawhi Leonard scored 30 and Paul George had 21 against Dallas. Either is capable of leading the Clippers to victory on any given night. Lay it. 10* 

Notre Dame is a team that has really struggled in 2022-23 as the Fighting Irish are 9-11 SU overall and don’t have a true road win to their name. Things have been even worse at the betting window where they are 3-16 against the spread. Not exactly the final season that HC Mike Brey envisioned.

But I like the Irish to at least keep it close tonight in Raleigh. For all their ATS struggles, they’ve only been a dog of this size once and that was against North Carolina. This, I believe, is the correct time to jump in and “buy low.” 

NC State hasn’t exactly been an ATS juggernaut through the years. They are a money-burning 27-47 vs. the number the last three seasons, a record which includes 10-26 at home and 15-32 in conference games. So the Wolfpack shouldn’t be trusted laying this many points, especially off the loss to UNC on Saturday. 

Keep in mind that two of NC State’s last three wins have been by four points or less. And they needed OT to beat Miami here at home. 

Notre Dame may not be on the level of some of NC State’s recent opposition, but I expect them to play hard Tuesday and cover this generous spread. Three of their last five losses have been by seven points or less. 10* 

I feel that Portland let a golden opportunity slip through their grasp last night, hosting the Lakers. The Blazers had a one day rest advantage over LA and were six-point favorites at home. Up 25 at halftime, it certainly appeared that the home team was headed for victory. But it ended up being a 121-112 loss instead. 

That was the Lakers’ first road game since January 9th. Tonight, Portland hosts an even worse team that hasn’t played a road game since January 11th. That would be San Antonio, who has the worst defensive rating in the league as well as the worst point differential. 

I realize that it may seem a bit “scary” to lay this many points with a team that is just 2-8 SU and ATS over its last 10 games. But, if the Blazers can’t cover here, it might be time to “fold up the tent.” 

San Antonio is truly horrific. They just allowed the Clippers to shoot 63% from the field on Saturday and score 33 or more points in three different quarters. 

The Spurs are 2-9 SU their last 11 games overall and are being outscored by an average of almost 12 points/game on the road this season. Lay it. 10*

While I don’t think this game will be “low scoring,” the O/U line is too high for tonight’s matchup between the Bulls and Hawks. 

Yes, Atlanta has gone Over in four straight and shot 55.5% over its last five games. But can they continue to shoot that well? Probably not! Especially not here when playing for the third time in four nights.

Only one of Chicago’s last five games would have gone Over tonight’s total. They are well rested, having last played on Thursday (in France) against the Pistons. This season, the Bulls are 2-0 to the Under when on three or more days rest.

In the first game back after a long trip, there’s a good chance we see some offensive regression from the Bulls. 10* 

The Islanders have struggled lately, winning just once in their last nine games.  They are generating very little offense and aren't as stingy as they have traditionally been.  Off an overtime road loss, the Leafs are just 5-5 lately, but they are dominant at home, going 17-3 in the Gardens this season.  They have won their last 4 straight games at home, allowing just 4 goals in those wins.  We've had a steady diet of unders from these two teams, not unexpected from two top 10 defenses.  As poor as the Isles have been, Sorokin, today's likely starter has continued to keep the score down. Samsonov has been very strong in the net for Toronto.

  The Leafs are very tough on defense, especially at home, and the two teams have a history of low scoring games when they meet.  Look for the Under trend to continue.

Both teams are on long ATS losing streaks coming into “Big Monday.” Duke has failed to cover five in a row (and seven of its last eight) while Virginia Tech has failed to cover its last seven games. 

But the difference here is that Duke has still been winning games, straight up. They are 3-2 SU during the five-game ATS losing streak and 5-3 SU over the course of the 1-7 ATS slide. They just defeated #17 Miami on Saturday, 68-66. 

Virginia Tech hasn’t just failed to cover seven in a row, they’ve lost all seven of those games straight up. I understand that they’re at home tonight and eventually will cover a spread. But I don’t think the Hokies should be favored here against - what I feel - is pretty clearly a better basketball team. 

This will be the first time that Duke is an underdog this season. This despite Jeremy Roach being back in the lineup, which obviously makes the Blue Devils a better all-around basketball team.

I’m taking the points here. 10* 

Expect fireworks in the last NBA game on the board tonight. The Lakers last five games have seen an average of more than 240 total points scored. Portland is not far behind at 237 and that’s after a low-scoring 105-95 loss to Philadelphia on Thursday.

There are only three teams in the league that give up more points/game than the Lakers. Those are: Charlotte, Detroit and San Antonio. 

Additionally, the Lakers play at the third fastest tempo in the league, which means more possessions. 

After an awful shooting night against the 76ers, you should look for the Blazers to bounce back offensively. 

The Over is 12-3 when the Lakers face a sub-.500 team. Portland comes in at 21-24 on the year. 10*

Two very fine teams, both off huge wild card victories, meet up on Sunday.  We are looking at the 4th and 5th best offenses, and the 5th and 6th best defenses, so there is no obvious advantage.  That said, each defense has weak point. For Dallas, it is the run game; 21st rated though improving lately.  The 49ers' soft spot is their pass defense.  They are 20th in pass yards allowed and 22 in completion rate.
Prescott pulled apart the Bucs' very good pass defense last week, and looked exceptionally sharp. Vs the Commanders the week before, it was the combination of Washington's top pass defense and the Commanders' ability to exploit Dallas's poorer run defense that led to the Commanders' success.
The Cowboys can run the ball but it will be tough to move vs the 49ers' elite run defense, however Prescott should be able to continue his fine passing play against the weaker 49ers' pass defense.  The 49ers can and will run the ball vs Dallas, but the bulk of their points are coming via the pass.  Purdy will face a very tough and active Cowboys' pass defense, the best he has faced yet.  Although he hasn't played like it, Purdy is still a rookie with limited experience in a very very big game.  While it will likely be a very close game, I am going with the more experienced passer today.  Take the Cowboys with the points, now more than a field goal.

New Orleans has been trending in the wrong direction for awhile now, losing 8 of its last 11 games including each of the last three. They are now 7 games adrift of the top spot in the Western Conference and 5.5 games behind second place Memphis.

So a win here today in Miami is much needed. The Pelicans will be looking to avenge an ugly 124-98 loss they took at the hands of the Heat back on Wednesday.

Obviously, this Pelicans’ losing streak coincides with Zion Williamson being out of the lineup. Brandon Ingram is also out. But CJ McCollum averages 21.3 and a team-high 5.8 assists. I expect better results for this team moving forward. 

This is too many points to pass up in my opinion. Miami is only 7-14-2 ATS at home including 5-13-2 when going off as the favorite. They were just blown out (by 25) in Dallas Friday night, a game the Heat actually went off as two-point favorites.

The Bengals travel to Buffalo to play in the snow tomorrow against a favored Bills team.  The Dolphins, the best pass-centric team the Bills have faced this year, put up 81 points in three games against Buffalo this year, winning once and losing the others by 3 points.  The Bengals are an elite pass-first team with a far better defense than Miami's. With the spread now at 6 points, I am not at all confident that the Bills can put this game away, in spite of Cincinnati's O-line injuries. Burrow, of all passers, is the least likely to be seriously affected by O line deficiencies. Very high sack totals has been the norm for him until this year, and he has thrived anyway.  The cold weather has not affected him, he loves the limelight, and he and the Bengals are unlikely to be affected by crowd noise.
At times last week, Allen moved the ball with ease against the Dolphins, but his slew of picks and fumbles in recent games is concerning.  The Bengals play a very clean game when it comes to turnovers. A game-deciding mistake is far more likely to come from Allen and the Bills this week.
On paper Buffalo has the edge in defense, especially rush defense. The Bengals are unlikely to run the ball excessively, and as far as points-allowed goes, Cincinnati has the upper hand, with 17 on average L3 games, and 17 last week compared to the Bills' 22 points allowed L3 and 31 last week.
In the last ill-fated and shortened meeting of these two teams, The Bengals were moving the ball with ease.  Look for a close game tomorrow, and take the Bengals plus the points.

The NEC (Northeast Conference) has treated me well in January! I’m 2-0 when playing this conference (which is found on the added board) including a big win with Wagner on Friday. 

Merrimack is a team that just lost to Wagner, 62-57 as a two-point favorite, on Monday. Despite that loss, the Warriors have a big-time advantage going into their next game. They’ve had nearly a week off while their opponents, St. Francis (NY), just played 48 hours ago. 

St. Francis lost 87-61 to St. Francis (PA) on Friday. They’d previously won three in a row, but all those games were close. None were decided by more than seven points.

These teams already played once this month. Merrimack won 65-53 as a 4.5-point home favorite, holding St.  Francis to 39.6% shooting.

Merrimack isn’t very good offensively, but they are holding opponents to 56.7 points/game in conference play. St. Francis has been wildly inconsistent at the offensive end this season and figures to struggle (again) here in this matchup. 10* 

The Canucks are barely keeping their heads above the surface, with a disgruntled fan base and a ton of turmoil off the ice.  The team has among the worst goals-against avg and PK in the league, and even their scoring touch seems to have deserted them.  They are just 1-7 in recent games and 8-13 at home.  Tonight's game vs the Oilers is their second in two nights.

Meanwhile, the Oilers have won five straight games.  They are very good on the road this season, have a very strong offense, and are 4-0 when facing the Canucks in Vancouver. Skinner is starting for the Cnucks in Vancouver, likely against Spencer Martin for Vancouver.  Martin has not been up to the increased work load and lack of protection in front of him.  His recent save % is dismal.

Look for another big game from McD and Draisaiyl, who have been a scourge vs the Canucks.  Oilers will kick the Canucks while they are down, winning again on the road.  My only concern is Skinner, who hasn't played in a while and wasn't strong  in his last games. Otherwise this one could be lopsided.

I cashed the Under in Gonzaga’s last game, which they LOST 68-67 at home to Loyola Marymount. That winner cleared by more than 20 points as the Zags uncharacteristically shot poorly (just 28.6% from three) and saw their 75-game home win streak come to an end. 

After being held to nearly 20 points below their season-long scoring average, which is still #2 in the nation, Gonzaga should come out firing Saturday night at Pacific, a WCC opponent that they’ve frequently torched in the past. In four of the previous five meetings, as well as 7 of the last 10, the Zags have topped 80 against the Tigers.

Now it takes “two to tango,” so Pacific is going to need to put up some points here as well. Certainly a lot more than the 57 they scored in a loss at San Francisco Thursday night. But that looks to be an outlier effort from the Tigers, who had scored 78 or more in each of the previous four games, all of which went Over the total.

The Over is also 21-9 in the L30 Pacific home games. 10*

The Giants face the Eagles at home in the divisional round.  This should be no contest considering their respective positions in the standings, but I believe it will be a much closer game and here is why.  
-Jalen Hurts is playing but in all likelihood is not completely healthy, and I doubt he is capable of going all-in on Saturday. We have seen how the Eagles fare without Hurts, and he did not impress in week 18.
-The Giants are inspired by their situation. Daboll has their attention, and he and they seem to learn from their mistakes this season.  A case in point; the Giants lost to the Vikings in week 16.  Three weeks later, in the biggest of games, they roll out a win over Minnesota.
-As good as the Eagles are against the pass, they have been susceptible on the ground. The Giants moved the ball in week 18 missing Barkley and Jones. Look for much better results this week.
-It isn't just the Eagles offense that has struggled in recent games.  Phillie's offense lacks some of the lustre we saw earlier in the season. While their passer pressure has remained a constant, their passing yards allowed has crept up, along with all other pass categories not related to pressure.  The Giants' defense has shown general improvement down the stretch, as has the offense.

I don't expect Jones to pass for 300 yards this week, and I don't really expect the Giants to win outright, but a close game, decided by one score, is very likely.  Take the Giants, now a seven+ point underdog, with the points, as the Eagles are out-coached and held in check on Saturday.

Minnesota is coming off a 128-126 win over Toronto where they were five-point underdogs here at home. They go from that, to being a significant favorite here tonight against sorry Houston.

The T’wolves have already beaten the Rockets twice this season, by 12 and by 8. The larger margin of victory was here at home. 

Houston has not won a game since the day after Christmas! The losing streak hit 12 with their 122-117 home loss to Charlotte on Wednesday. They’d previously dropped four in a row on the road, three of those by 20 or more, while giving up an average of 133.8 points per game.

It gets even worse. The Rockets haven’t covered a spread since January 2nd. It’s eight straight ATS losses. 

On the road this season, the Rockets are 4-20 and being outscored by over 10 points/game. Play against them at all costs right now. 10*

It’s not too often that you can use “North Carolina” and “undervalued” in the same sentence, but I think that’s where we are at right now with the Tar Heels, who I believe are one of the Top 25 teams in America.

Over its L10 games, UNC has lost just twice, both on the road - at Pitt (by 2) and at #10 Virginia (by 6). Since losing to Virginia, Hubert Davis’ team has responded by winning twice, as they should have, as double digit favorites, beating Louisville and Boston College. 

This is a matchup where they are catching NC State in the second of two straight road games. The Wolfpack won at Georgia Tech on Tuesday, but this is the first time all season that they’re playing two straight true road games. They’ve previously lost at Miami and Clemson. Last Saturday, they needed OT to defeat Miami at home in a revenge spot.

Remember that North Carolina entered this season ranked #1 in the polls! They are far more talented than what we saw back in November.

As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Tar Heels have covered five straight times. NC State is just 15-31 ATS the last three years in conference play. Lay it. 10*

The last really good team the Chiefs played was the Bengals and they lost. They beat the Chargers, the Jags' competition last week, by 3 points, and the rest of their recent competition hasn't been strong. This is a much better Jags team than the last time the Chiefs faced them and we are now looking at a 9 point spread. Lawrence has grown immensely as a passer and bounced back from some uncharacteristically poor play in the first halves of his last two games, so let us hope his jitters are behind him.  The weather will be been less than perfect on Saturday and the Jags have the edge in the run department, so a possible edge there. The Jags' O-line has protected Lawrence very well to date but the Chiefs are a voracious team when it comes to passer pressure. I expect a big game from Etienne on  Saturday.
Mahomes is Mahomes, but the Chiefs' record against the spread is not impressive.  This is too many points considering the Jags are on a huge and unexpected run against really tough odds this season. Look for a closer game that the line would suggest.  Take an inspired Jags team and the points.

The last team the 2-8 Canucks beat at home was the Avalanche.  Since then, the Avs have gone 4-2, and scored a ton of goals, especially in their last three games (17).  They are a solid road team and face a Canucks group that is struggling on and off the ice.  Considering their make-up, the Avs are surprisingly poor on offense this year, averaging just 3.1 goals a game, but they appear to be waking up lately.  They do have a better power play, and are a top ten defense.  The Canucks can put the puck in the net (3.4 goals/game), but their defense is a woeful 31st ranked, and they have the worst PK in the league.  It is hard to tell which net-minder will start for Vancouver, but both are usually exposed by poor defensive play. 

The Canucks have historically played well vs the Avs and have won both games so far this season.  Today's best bet is the Over, considering the Avalanches' recent scoring blitz and the Canucks' dependably poor defense and potent offense.

Miami has crept back up into the top six in the Eastern Conference and tonight will head to Dallas to face a team that’s top five out West. While the Heat have won 4 of 5 and 7 of their last 10, the Mavs are slipping; dropping five of six and three straight.

After their latest loss, which came here at home to the Atlanta Hawks by a score of 130-122, you have to figure Dallas is going to look to “buckle down” defensively. “It’s like a shootaround,” head coach Jason Kidd said of his team’s defense (or rather lack of it) in the last game.  

But rather than back the home team here, I’m going with the Under.

Miami is #2 in the NBA in scoring defense, giving up just 108.6 points/game. They’ve allowed fewer than 100 points in two of their last three games. 

In terms of pace, these are two of the slowest teams in the entire NBA. Dallas is 29th in pace while Miami is 24th. All signs point to this being a low-scoring game. 10*

Golden State goes from one NBA Finals rematch to another. Last night, they lost 121-118 in Boston, a rematch of last year’s Finals. Now they face a team that played in four consecutive Finals (2014-17), that being Cleveland. LeBron might now be long gone, but this current Cavaliers team is most certainly for real.

The Warriors found themselves on the wrong end of an 8-0 OT run last night in Boston. They are now just 5-18 on the road. Having to play again on the road, in the second night of a back to back, after blowing a double digit second half lead, is a tough spot.

Given the way this line is moving, I suspect the Warriors may be giving someone the night off. In the second game of six previous road back to backs, we’ve seen them elect to rest one or multiple starters. They did beat Washington 127-118 in an identical situation Monday. But the five previous times saw them lose by an average of more than 20 points/game.

Furthermore, this will be Golden State’s fifth straight game on the road.

Cleveland is 19-4 SU/16-7 ATS at home this season. They are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Even if Donovan Mitchell (questionable) can’t play here, I believe the Cavs take care of business and snap a 14-game losing streak to the Warriors. Lay it! 10*

We turn to the NEC (Northeast Conference) for today’s Best Bet. Believe it or not, I’ve already cashed a Game of the Month in this Conference here in January, betting Fairleigh Dickinson (1st place team) against St. Francis (NY).

Here we’ve got Wagner, laying just a short number, hosting a Central Connecticut State team that is among the very worst in the country. I have no hesitation in playing the favorite here. 

Wagner just stopped a three-game win streak earlier this week (Monday) with a 62-57 win at Merrimack as two-point underdogs. Prior to that, the Seahawks had failed to cash eight in a row. That’s why we’re able to get them at such a cheap price tonight.

Now laying points with a team that’s 1-8 ATS over its last nine lined games may seem like a dicey proposition. But, as stated earlier, C Conn St is one of the worst teams in the country. Currently #327 at KenPom (out of 363 teams), the Blue Devils have won just four games all season and three of those were at home.

In their last two games, we’ve seen C Conn State lose by scoring only 49 and then by giving 88 points. They are 1-10 SU when playing away from home and losing by a substantial margin (double digits in true road games). Lay it! 10* 

The Stars are doing the western swing this week and meet up with the Kings on Thursday night. The 6-4 Kings are a solid home team and are very well rested, playing just 2 games in the last week. Dallas, 4-3 L7, is normally very good on the road, but will play it's 3rd game in 4 nights.  The home team has won 5 straight in recent history.  The Stars have a firm statistical edge, but haven't been quite as overpowering lately.  They will likely start a seldom used Wedgewood in net.  He has been uneven when he has played this year.  The Kings will likely counter with Copely, who has been a pleasant surprise this year,  winning 10 of his last 12 starts.
Dallas lost to the cellar-swelling Sharks on Wednesday.  They've played a lot of hockey in the last few days and face much stiffer opposition on Thursday.  I will take the better rested Kings to win at home.

You can watch this one on TNT. After essentially “punting” on the game in San Antonio Tuesday, the Nets should bounce back here against a Phoenix team that’s even more short-handed.

Already without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving did not play against the Spurs. The result was an embarrassing 106-98 loss to what I consider to be the worst team in the league.

Since Durant went down, the Nets’ offensive numbers have gone in the toilet. They’re averaging fewer than 100 points over the last three contests. But Irving is probable to go here. 

We don’t know exactly who WON’T be going for Phoenix. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder, Josk Okogie and Landry Shamet are all on the injured list. But of the seven, only Paul and Johnson have a chance of playing here. 

The Suns have won just once in their last 10 games and this is the first game back home after a four-game trip, a spot we typically see teams struggle in. 10*

Gonzaga can certainly score at will as we saw on Saturday when they dropped 115 points on poor Portland and won by 40. That was the third time in the last month the Zags hit the century mark and fourth if you include a non-board game vs. Eastern Oregon. They are #1 in the country, averaging 86.9 PPG. 

But, it was just last Thursday where we saw the Under hit in a game between Gonzaga and BYU. I think that tonight Loyola Marymount can keep Gonzaga’s scoring in relative check.

Now LMU scored 98 themselves in a win over San Diego last Saturday. Certainly, points are to be expected here. But this number is high. In fact it’s the largest O/U for any LMU game so far this season. 

With the opponent and the Over being 6-0 in Lions’ road games, I understand there may be some trepidation in playing this Under. But be aware that not only did Gonzaga go Under vs. BYU, but also the two games before as well. None of the three saw more than 157 total pts scored. 

The game vs. San Diego was also LMU’s highest scoring of the season so far. There’s value here in the Under. 10*

Delaware looks to halt a two-game losing skid here as it hosts William & Mary in Thursday night CAA action. The good news (for the Blue Hens) is they’re back home. The two straight losses both came on the road, at Hofstra and at Northeastern, the latter by just a single point in a game they led by 12 at the half. 

Now the Blue Hens have been without Jameer Nelson Jr for the last four games and are just 1-3 with the lone win coming against Towson. Nelson is questionable to return here, but I still like the home team regardless. Note all three losses without Nelson came on the road. 

William & Mary is also off a loss, and a humbling one at that, as they were beaten 82-54 at Charleston. Now there’s no shame in losing to a team that’s 19-1 and the “flag bearer” for your conference. But getting beat by 28 is another thing entirely. 

Going back to the start of December. W&M is 5-6 SU overall. But three of the wins came by three points or less and another was over a non-DI team. All five losses, meanwhile, were by double digits.

With or without Nelson, look for the Blue Hens to blow out the Tribe. 10* 

Remember when Atlanta drafted Luka Doncic, then immediately traded him to Dallas in exchange for Trae Young? OOPS! The Hawks probably regret that move, this season more than ever, as Doncic is putting in a MVP-caliber season while Young has seemingly lost the ability to shoot from three.

There are 35 NBA players that have attempted at least 250 three-pointers this season. Young is 33rd in 3PT% (at 32.5).

Now the Hawks do come into Dallas on a three-game win streak. They beat Indiana, Toronto and Miami over a four-day stretch, the first two coming on the road. But the only other time this season that the Hawks found themselves on a three-game win streak, they went out and lost the next game, by six at Utah.

Dallas should be glad to be back home after a five-game road trip where they went 1-4. They are 16-6 SU at home and while only 8-11-3 ATS, this is a short number that I’m not really worried about.

The Mavs have won & covered each of the last three times they’ve been off back to back losses. Only once all season have they lost more than two in a row. 10* 

For this A-10 matchup, we’ve got two teams that have been covering the spread quite a bit lately. Duquesne is 7-1 ATS its last eight games, the only non-cover coming against Dayton where the Dukes were eight-point road underdogs and lost by 12. St. Bonaventure is 4-1 ATS over its last five games, also winning three of those straight up.

Obviously, the Bonnies have been the less successful team overall this year, but they come into this one sporting an 8-1 SU record at home. They are also 8-1 ATS here. The lone home loss came back on 12/13 to Florida Gulf Coast, as a 3.5-point favorite. 

Saturday saw the Bonnies defeat Richmond, 71-63, as they outscored their opponents 48-34 in the second half. 

I don’t like this spot at all for Duquesne as they are playing a third straight road game. They lost at Richmond the previous Saturday before winning at St. Joe’s last Wednesday.

Despite the rest advantage, the Dukes face a daunting task trying to win here at the Reilly Center. They opened as the favorite, something I disagree with, considering they have just one true road win. St. Bonaventure also holds teams to an average of 62.8 points and 40.2% shooting here at home. 8* 

WVU is DESPERATE for a win tonight. The Mountaineers are 0-5 to start Big 12 play, which was tied for last (until Texas Tech lost Tuesday). But they’ve been in almost every game, save for the one against Kansas. The other four conference losses have all been by seven points or less.

Saturday saw West Virginia lose by one at Oklahoma. They at least got the cover, as 3.5 point underdogs, when Seth Wilson made a “meaningless” three right before the buzzer. 

TCU is probably feeling pretty good about itself after smashing Kansas State over the weekend. But this looks like a bit of a letdown spot for a Horned Frogs team that is just 5-10 SU off a conference win the last three seasons.

West Virginia has one of the best home court advantages in the country, yet has lost two straight in Morgantown. Can’t see them losing three straight.

TCU’s three-point shooting issues (below 29% for the season) become a problem more so on the road. WVU is 9-1 SU as a favorite this year and I’m laying the short number here. 10*

Yes, Brooklyn is without Kevin Durant. But if there’s a worse team in the NBA than San Antonio, I’m not aware of them. The Spurs have been outscored by 9.1 points/game (worst in the league), 8.7 points per 100 possession (29th out of 30), own the worst defensive rating and are 28th on offense.

Overall, the Spurs have dropped five straight and eight of nine coming into Tuesday.

The Nets have lost two in a row without Durant, but held the lead going into the 4Q Sunday vs. OKC. They were ultimately doomed by shooting 29% from three. 

But this has “get right game” written all over it for Brooklyn, who beat the Spurs by 36 earlier this month. Durant did have 25 points in that win, but also played just 29 minutes. 

The Nets still have Kyrie Irving and also got 23 points from Seth Curry off the bench on Sunday. Two other starters finished in double figures. There’s enough firepower on hand to beat the lowly Spurs. 10*

The Leafs haven't exactly come out of the Holiday break on fire, but they are very hard to beat at home.  The Panthers won on the road on Monday but that is not common; Florida struggles in back-to-backs and on the road this season.  Toronto has a top ten offense but also play a disciplined defensive style and are giving up just 2.6 goals a game.  Add solid goal tending, and they are a tough out .  The Panthers can match the Leafs on offense but Toronto has a considerable advantage on defense and special teams.

With Knight on the IL, Florida had to reach a bit, and dug up likely start Lyon in net, who hasn't played in the NHL this year.  Murray is expected in net for the Leafs.  He was beaten by the Bruins in his last start, but was admirable in his previous two appearances (.970 and .944. save %)

The Leafs have had a couple of days off to regroup, and Tuesday's game, against a tired Panthers team, is a fine opportunity to bounce back.  Take the Leafs to win at home.

Valparaiso is not having a good season. The BEACONS are just 1-7 in Missouri Valley games. But so are their Tuesday opponents, UIC. The difference here is Valpo is coming off its first conference win while UIC has lost five in a row.

The Beacons beat Evansville, who are the worst team in the MVC. But UIC isn’t much better. The Flames may play fast (84th in tempo), but they aren’t efficient on offense (325th). The defense isn’t any good either (206th). 

Five of UIC’s seven conference losses have been by at least 13 points. The two that weren’t both came at home. 

Being at home tonight should motivate Valpo. They haven’t won here since 12/21. Saturday’s win was at Evansville.

Valpo is probably in store for some positive regression in terms of three-point shooting. They are below 30% from the year. It’s hard to imagine staying that bad for a full season. 10*

Even after a sub .500 season it is hard to go against Brady and the Bucs.  It would be easier if Prescott were playing a little better.  A few things stand out in this match-up.  As noted in the media, the Cowboys  a. haven't won in a quite a while against the Bucs, b. don't play well on real grass, and c. Tampa, while losing more than winning this season, are above .500 at home.

The Cowboys have gotten away from their running game lately; the Bucs who are last in the league in rush yards for the season, have put up just as many yards as Dallas lately. The Bucs seldom run the ball, but did against the Cowboys in their first game and again against the Seahawks, two of their best performances this year.  The Cowboys are susceptible to the run, so it is a possibility we will see more from Fournette and the rush defense on Monday.  Brady has looked better connected to his targets, and might hold on to the ball a little longer with the season on the line. 

Prescott has no impressed at all in recent games, and it isn't just the picks he has thrown.  The offensive breakdown in a game that should have mattered last week is concerning.  Dallas could revert to the run, and should be able to move the ball vs Tampa, but in the end, given his history and his ability to move the ball when he needs to this season, I'm choosing Brady over Prescott.  Tampa is as healthy as they have been all season.  A mistake could decide this game, a pick or an interception, and it is more likely to come from Dallas. Take Tampa + the points.

FAU is 16-1 with the nation’s second longest win streak, but they have been a very lucky team so far, particularly of late. The Owls’ last five wins have all come by four points or less, four of them by that exact margin. I don’t think they can continue winning like this. 

Hosting North Texas on Saturday, Florida Atlantic trailed at the half. That was after needing overtime to get by FIU earlier in the week. 

Western Kentucky had been one of the most disappointing teams in the country, but the Hilltoppers have rallied for a three-game SU/ATS win streak, including an impressive victory at UAB. This despite HC Rick Stansbury being away from the team. 

FAU has not had an easy time winning at WKU through the years. They’ve dropped 9 of the previous 12 visits. Those were different teams obviously, but the Hilltoppers have always been a strong home team.

The only other time they’ve been a home dog this year, WKU pushed, losing by four to North Texas. This time they get the cover and I obviously give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset against a team that’s due to drop a game. 10*

Dallas, dynamite on the road, takes on a Golden Knights team that tends to struggle at home, just 2 games over .500 this season.  Stars' coach DeBoer will have his team especially motivated tonight, his first game back in Vegas after being fired by the club last season.  The Stars are 6-4, but off 2 straight close losses, are due for a rebound.  Vegas,  also 6-4, is still very depleted with injuries and faces a much healthier Stars team.  
Comparing offenses and defenses, the Stars have a decided edge, 7th in goals for and goals against, and 5th in PK and PP.  Vegas is just outside the top ten in all categories other than their solid 7th ranked PP.  Dallas has the edge in net as well.  The Knights' Thompson has lost 4 of his last 6 games.  Oettinger has been very good all season and brilliant in his last three games.
Dallas is an underdog today, somewhat surprising given the circumstances.  I believe it will be the Stars doing the firing today, on all cylinders, that is!  take the Dawg Stars to steal this one on the road.

Two teams headed in very different directions here. Phoenix is just 2-11 over its last 13 games and has covered the spread only two times in the last nine games. Memphis is on a nine-game win streak, during which they are 6-3 ATS.

But, surprisingly, this is a revenge spot for the Grizzlies. 

They lost to the Suns, here at home, 125-108 right after Christmas (12/27). That was after blowing the Suns out (in Phoenix) just four days earlier.

The Grizzlies are a devastating home team. Not only are they 18-3 at the FedExForum, but they are winning by an average of 10.8 points/game.

This is a depleted Suns roster with little chance of doing anything today. No Booker, Paul, Payne or Johnson. That wasn’t the case when they beat the Grizzlies last month. Memphis has scored 121 or more points in six straight games. Phoenix has failed to score 100 five of its last seven and has given up 123.5 PPG over its last two. Lay it. 10*

The Celtics and Hornets just played Friday. It was a rare loss for me, as I took the points, but Charlotte just didn’t have enough in the tank down the stretch. They did have a 16-point lead in the first half and were up at the break, only to be outscored 60-40 in the second half. This afternoon, I’ll be taking a different approach. 

There were 228 total points scored in Friday’s game, which was just shy of the total (closed 232.5). 

I am very confident that Boston will have no issue putting a bunch of points on the board in today’s game. Not only do they carry the #1 offensive rating in the league this season, but Charlotte has now allowed 121 or more points in three straight and six of its last eight games.

So, really, what this comes down to is: can the Hornets score enough? I think they will. They were a pretty woeful 8 of 27 from three on Friday, which is below their season percentage.

Boston attempted 53 threes on its own Friday. That’s a lot, but not out of the ordinary when facing Charlotte. They launched 52 3PA back in November vs. the Hornets and poured in 140 total points. Take the Over here. 8*

It is offense vs defense when the Bengals host the Ravens on Sunday.  Resting Andrews, Dobbins and others last week, the Ravens deserted their running game, with rookie QB Anthony Brown throwing for 270+ yards, not to mention 2 picks and an end zone fumble. Credit to the kid, he did appear to settle somewhat as the game went on, and it was surprisingly easy at times for the Ravens to move the ball.  It will likely be back to Huntley, Dobbins and the running game this week against a solid Bengals run and an average pass defense. Of note, the Bengals are susceptible to longer passing plays; the Ravens averaged over 14 yards per completion last week.
Burrow threw for just 200 yards, down considerably from average, especially considering all of the Ravens' turnovers.  He has struggled against the Ravens defense this year. Baltimore limited Burrow and targets to short gains and a poor completion rate, sacking him twice. The Bengals hardly ran the ball last week.
Look for the Ravens to eat up the clock on the ground, and hopefully not turn the ball over as often.  I don't think they have enough offense to put up many points, but I do think their fine defense can make it very tough on Burrow and the Bengals.  A Ravens win is not likely in the cards, but I'm wagering on the Baltimore to keep it close.  Take the Ravens plus the points.

The Bengals and the Ravens put up 53 points last week but that included two costly picks and a "fumble-six" by the Ravens' rookie QB.  Look for the Ravens to go back to their usual rush-first style and slo-ow the game down this week.  Burrow has had his struggles against the Baltimore defense this year, and was held to just 200 passing yards, short receptions and a poor completion rate last week.  The Ravens haven't been able to put up many points with Huntley under center, and the Bengals are tough to run against. Baltimore's tough defense, with a dry run last week, will tighten the screws on Burrow and limit points more successfully this week.  Take Sunday's game to go under the total!

Denver sat Nikola Jokic on Friday and still beat the Clippers 115-103 on the road. So you have to like their chances here, at home against the lowly Magic, even with a large spread in play.

The Nuggets are tied (with Memphis) for the best record in the Western Conference right now at 29-13. They’ve won five in a row overall and covered the spread in four of the wins (with one push). Since 12/18, the team is 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS. 

At the opposite end of the spectrum, you have Orlando, who is a bottom five team in the NBA, although definitely better than the bottom four. The Magic are at the end of a five-game road trip and while things have gone surprisingly well so far (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS), I think they’re ripe to get blown out tonight.

Jokic will play for the Nuggets and that’s obviously bad news for an Orlando team that carries a bottom 10 ranking both offensively and defensively. 

The Nuggets aren’t just winning games, they are crushing teams, outscoring the last five opponents by an average of 19.6 points/game. I have no problem laying this number Sunday night. 10*

One could probably make the case that BOTH of these Big 10 squads are a bit underrated at the moment. Ohio State and Rutgers each find themselves listed in the KenPom top 15, however neither are to be found in the AP or Coaches’ polls. 

Ohio State was in the Top 25 of those polls, but has dropped three straight relatively close decisions, including two when favored at home. I suppose there’s no shame in losing to Purdue, but losing as a 14.5-point favorite in Columbus to Minnesota was very bad for the Buckeyes.

The market seems to think this is a “must win” for OSU, but I’d be careful about that as Rutgers has lost just once over its last seven games (Iowa) and that was a game where the ShotQuality data suggested they probably should have won. A win here and you have to think the Scarlet Knights are in the “official” Top 25. 

What I like about this Rutgers team is their defense. They are #3 in the country in defensive efficiency, trailing only Tennessee and Houston. That’s a massive edge over Ohio State, who is 99th in defensive efficiency.

This is the second meeting of the year between these teams. Ohio State won the first, 67-66, but that was not without controversy as the Big 10 later admitted that the game-winning shot should not have counted. Look for Rutgers, who is 34-9 L43 home games, to exact revenge in this one. Lay the short number. 10* 

Gonzaga just escaped BYU with a 75-74 win, but did not cover as 6.5-point road favorites. That makes it an 0-3 ATS start to the New Year for the Zags, all of those games coming as single digit favorites on the road. 

I think it’s worth pointing out though that the three teams they just faced are all top five in the WCC.

Portland is NOT top five and that’s why the Zags are laying double digits here as they return home Saturday. The oddsmakers are expecting a blowout and so am I. 

So far Gonzaga has won all seven home games by an average of 28.1 points/game. This remains an elite offensive team that is 6th in the country in efficiency, not to mention shoots it at a 51.4% clip.

Portland is coming off a bit of a surprise result as they were two-point home underdogs at home in a 92-87 win vs. San Francisco. But the last time the Pilots hit the road, they were beaten soundly, by St. Mary’s 85-43 as 17-point underdogs. May not get quite that ugly here, but the Zags will roll. 10*

This will be an interesting match-up between two young QBs. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags got a taste of "lose and it is over" last week, and Lawrence did seem a little jittery vs. the Titans.  He has been a quick study in his brief history so far, and I think he will step up this week.  Etienne and the Jags' running game will be a deciding factor.  The Jags, unlike the Chargers, have some balance in their offense, and the Chargers REALLY struggle against the run.
The Chargers have a fine passer in Herbert, but they may be without Williams this week which takes a little of the juice out of their passing game.  They don't run much.  They could step that up but the Jags are tough vs the run.  The Jags defense, including their weak pass D, has improved as the season progressed. I believe it will be status quo for the Chargers pass-first offense. Can the Jags' pass defense handle Herbert and his targets?  They've averaged 3 sacks a week and have held passers to a 70 rating last three games, and an 89 rate for the season, just one point above LA's seasonal average.
The Chargers really haven't beaten anyone very impressive to get this far.  I am not sold on them as a wild card winner. The Jags have momentum, a little extra rest and have no expectations on them.  They will be at home in front of a delirious crowd.  Take the Jags to cover.  An outright win would not surprise me.

The surprising Kraken are rolling on the road, taking on all comers and winning 6 straight.  They are now 15-4 in away games after shutting out the mighty Bruins 3-0.  We have seen plenty of goal production from Seattle lately, with 4 or more, and a high of 8, in six of seven games.

The Blackhawks have won three straight games, likely their best stretch this season, but that streak ends tonight.  Seattle has a top three offense and a solid defense while facing a very poor Blackhawks' defense and the league's worst goal scorers.

Seattle's net-minder Jones has shut out the last two teams he has faced.  Look for Seattle to continue with a hot hand tonight.  The Kraken to win on the puck line at -1 1/2.

On paper, this looks like a big mismatch with the best team in the East (and probably the entire NBA) taking on the team with the worst record in the Conference.

Boston has been very impressive in rolling to a league-best 32-11 record. They come into the weekend riding a five-game win streak after defeating Brooklyn 109-98 Thursday.

But the Celtics haven’t been that great as road favorites so far, at least at the betting window as they are 7-10-1 ATS in that role. With another game here in Charlotte Monday afternoon, I can see this not exactly being a peak performance (Jaylen Brown is questionable to play).

Meanwhile, it should be “all hands on deck” for the Hornets, who are back home after playing the last four games on the road. They’ve lost six of seven overall, but did upset Milwaukee on the road, 138-109 as a 10-point underdog.

With Boston only outscoring its opponents by 2.5 points/game on the road, I just think this is too many points. 10* 

It would be hard to imagine the 49ers not emerging victorious on Saturday but the question is "by how much?"  First off, there is a huge risk of  heavy rain and wind, making for the likelihood of a run-dominated game. The Giants ran 60% of the time in their last game and have had plenty of success with it, averaging 160+ yards in their last three games. The Seahawks' defense doesn't handle the run at all well, so the 49ers would be wise to take advantage irregardless of the weather.  Seattle, and especially Walker has had rush success lately, as the Seahawks have put up even more yards than the 49ers on the ground L3  Seattle will likely have a tougher time moving the ball against an excellent SF rush defense.
The 49er's pass defense, while not exactly struggling lately, has given up more passing yards, a higher completion % and more points lately.  Smith has excellent targets, but his star is not nearly as shiny in recent games, and he will face formidable pass pressure from the 49ers.  Purdy has improved each week and is off a passer rating of 115 in his last three games, but he doesn't exactly air it out.  He is still very much a rookie, and the Seahawks' pass defense has been much better recently, with 5 sacks last week and a passer rating allowed of just 65 in their last three games.
Considering the field conditions, I think this game will be closer than expected.  Carroll will have the Seahawks prepared, and certainly the team from Emerald City are no strangers to rain.  While a win is not likely for the Seahawks, neither is a blow out.  Take Seattle plus the points

This is the ultimate buy low spot on Kentucky, who just lost outright - as a 20-point home favorite (!) - to South Carolina earlier in the week. Now the Wildcats face one of the best teams in the country (Tennessee) and are catching double digits themselves.

It’s not been a great watch in Lexington so far this season as UK has not covered a spread since before Thanksgiving. That’s 10 straight ATS losses for “those keeping score at home.” 

But how many times do you get KENTUCKY catching double digits? Not many. The most points they’ve gotten in any game all season was 4.5. That was against Alabama, another top 10 team, on the road. I don’t think that the difference between ‘Bama and Tennessee is as great as the oddsmakers’ number here makes it out to be. 

Teams have shot just 20.9% from three against Tennessee this season. That cannot possibly continue. I say that because the NCAA record for 3-point FG% defense (in a single season) is 25.3%.  

Double digit road underdogs, after losing outright as a double digit favorite, are a solid 57.5% ATS the last 30 seasons. Grab the points here. 10* 

The Devils are rested and on the road to face the Ducks today.  NJ has been dynamite on the road this season, 15-2 to date.  They've also been explosive in their last two appearances, knocking off the 'Canes and Rangers, and have scored 4 or more goals in 5 of 6 games.  The Ducks do play better in their own pond, but ares still just 8-12 at home.  They have been shelled in two straight home games, allowing 13 goals while scoring just 3!  This game is a mismatch.  New Jersey has a sixth ranked offense and fourth ranked defense against the Ducks "worst or close" defense, offense, PP and PK. Yikes! Can you spell Bedard?
 In net, Vanacek has been a fine edition in net for the Devils, giving them a steady presence in goal.  Gibson, who has had a very fine career in Anaheim, is posting his worst numbers ever, and has allowed 13 goals in his last 2 games. Don't blame him. He's been peppered with quality shots; absolutely a sitting duck... Take the resurgent Devils to win on the puck line at -1 1/2.

Utah has been sliding in recent weeks (2-8 SU L10 games), but did just defeat their old teammate (Deron Williams) and Cleveland earlier this week. I like their chances of not only making it two straight, but also covering the spread on Friday.

The Jazz get Orlando off a win, and a rather shocking one at that as the Magic beat the Blazers on the road, 109-106 as an eight-point underdog.

But this will be the Magic’s fourth straight road game, all out West. The Portland win came on the second night of a back to back, making that result all the more shocking. But even with the two days off here, I think fatigue could be setting in.

At home, the Jazz are averaging 120.9 points/game. That’s far too much for an Orlando team that only averages 106.6 on the road. The Magic were at 51.3% from the field in their last game. Rarely, do they shoot better than 50% in two straight games. 10*

Note the early tip time for this one (5 PM ET). After registering a big win over Penn (88-69 as 3.5 point favorites) last Friday, Cornell promptly dropped its first Ivy League game the following day (75-68 to Princeton, as three-point favorites). The Ivy League leaders are again at home this Friday and with such a short number, most are going to be calling for a bounce back. I’ve got a bit of a different read on this one.

Yale has played three close games to open conference play. They dropped the first two, 62-60 at Columbia and 81-77 at Dartmouth. Both times they were double digit favorites. Then came the first win in the Ivy League, 58-54 over Harvard last Saturday. But again the Bulldogs failed to cover, this time as 7.5-point favorites.

But this will be the first time Yale has been an underdog since facing Kentucky on 12/10. They covered the number in that game pretty easily.

It’s a much shorter number obviously vs. Cornell, but I still like Yale’s chances. They have a major edge defensively in this matchup as Cornell ranks 226th in efficiency over at KenPom. Yale is 69th.  8*

Portland will host Cleveland Thursday night, looking for a reversal of fortunes as the Blazers have dropped four straight while the Cavs have won four of six.

They say “there’s no place like home,” but for Portland that was untrue two nights ago when they went out and lost to Orlando, 109-106, here at home. That was their first game back home following an 0-3 road trip and they shot just 6 of 35 from three. I expect much better shooting in this game, even though Cleveland has a reputation of being very good defensively.

While the Cavs have won four of six, they are just 1-2 on the current road trip and this is going to be their fourth road game in seven days (third in five). Donvan Mitchell’s 46 was not enough against his former team (Utah) on Wednesday as the Cavs lost to the Jazz 116-114.  

It’s been a good first half of the season in Cleveland, but we’ve seen the team start to “give a little back” at the betting window where they are 2-6-1 ATS their last nine games. The market seems to have caught up to this team. Furthermore, the Cavs are just 6-12-2 ATS on the road this year.

Let’s head to the Pac 12 for tonight’s College Basketball selection as USC hosts Colorado. The Trojans have already taken some early action, including from me, as I think this is a great spot for them to bounce back from back to back losses.

Both those losses occurred on the road, at Washington State and UCLA. It was a close one against their rivals, with USC even roaring back to take the lead in the final 30 seconds, but they ultimately fell two points short. But at least it was an easy cover as 11-point pups.

Before the two straight losses, USC had won seven games in a row, one of them over Auburn. Andy Enfield’s team was 11-3 overall with two of the losses coming to Tennessee and Wisconsin.

At home, don’t think the Trojans will shoot 18.5% from three again as they did vs. UCLA. 

As for Colorado, they have prevailed in seven of their last eight games. But that one loss was to Cal, on the road. I understand that the Buffaloes just beat up on Oregon and Oregon State, but this line opened too low as USC is 6-1 ATS this season against teams that have a winning record. Lay it. 10* 

The embattled 4-6 Canucks are 0-2 on this road trip.  They can score but they can't hold a lead, allowing 12 goals and scoring 8 in their last two games.  They are 30th in goals against and worst in the league on the PK.  Add a sub-.500 road record and an 0-4 recent record against the Lightning, and a Canucks win seems unlikely.

The Lightning lost 2 straight on the road, but bounced back with a big home win against the Blues last time out.  Tampa Bay is very tough to beat at home.  With a top five offense and power play, they could have a field day against either of the Canucks' inexperienced 2nd string goalies.  The Canucks give out high risk chances and power play goals like Hallowe'en candy, but don't underestimate their offense.  The over is 23 -14 in Canucks' games this season.  Expect a high scoring game tonight  and go with the over again.

San Jose has lost it's way with just three wins in ten games.  They beat the Coyotes last night, but wins on consecutive nights is unlikely, especially against a 7-3 Kings team who are very good  at home.  LA won in a surprisingly low scoring game the last time these two teams met, but the Kings have been hot lately, beating both the Oilers and the Knights, and scoring 6 and 5 goals respectively.  The Kings' forte is offense and power play, and while their defense is below average, it is not nearly as poor as the The Sharks' who are  28th in goals allowed.

LA has six players with 10 or more goals, plus decent secondary scoring.  The Sharks' +/- is very shaky, neither goaltender is especially sharp, and they will play two nights in a row with travel thrown in.  Look for the Kings to be a lot tougher on the Sharks than the last time these two teams met.  The Sharks aren't terrible at putting the puck in the net either.  With  the Sharks averaging three goals a game, and the Kings on a tear, look for this game to go over the total.

The 7-3 Kings are at home to the Sharks, who are struggling at 3-7. The Sharks managed a win against the Coyotes last night, but they defend poorly and are playing in a back to back situation. It will likely be Reimer in net for the Sharks, and he has struggled in three straight games, although having the 28th ranked defense in front of you doesn’t help. Copley will very likely start for the Kings. He’s been a bit of an eye-opener this season at 11-2, giving up just 2.5 goals a game.

The Sharks have had success in the past against the Kings, and the last time they met resulted in a close Kings’ win. The Kings are getting solid and varied scoring and have a good power play. They’ve scored 6 and 5 goals respectively against better teams than the Sharks. At home, and with better rest, look for the Kings to win big tonight. Take the Kings at – 1 ½.

Illinois State snapped a three-game losing skid its last time out, beating Evansville on the road, 69-61. Now they’ll turn around and host a Missouri State team that just had a four-game win streak ended with a 74-61 loss at Belmont.

I won’t lie and sell you that Illinois State is a “good team,” but the Redbirds’ record could certainly be a lot better. They have four losses by four points or less.  

Missouri State being a road favorite here immediately caught my attention. The Bears have had to lay points in only one true road game so far this season. While they won and covered in that spot, it was against Illinois-Chicago, who is a pretty bad team.

If this game comes down to the free throws, and it very well might (considering the tight spread), then Illinois State has a huge edge. The Redbirds are making 79.8% of their FTs (82.1% at home). Missouri State, meanwhile, is a woeful 59.1% from the charity stripe (57.1% on the road). 

ISU is a solid 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games. Take the points. 10* 

Needless to say, Indiana has outperformed their low expectations coming into the season. One more win and the Pacers go Over their season win total! 

Unfortunately, Pacers’ fans, you’re going to have to wait another day. I like the Knicks here, at home, coming off a loss. 

The Knicks were a trendy pick Monday night vs. Milwaukee and looked to be well on their way to victory. But they blew a 17-point lead here at home and ended up losing by four. This should have them coming out angry for tonight.

Last month, the Knicks beat the Pacers, 109-106 in Indiana, and went off as a 1-point favorite. I think the number should be higher here. 

Indiana has a negative efficiency rating (-1.9), so I think their 23-18 record is a bit fraudulent. I see them as being due for a downturn. Fade. 10* 

This is the second night of a back to back for Orlando. They’ll encounter a Portland team that should be pretty angry after it dropped all three games on a recently completed road trip.

The Magic just gave up 136 points to Sacramento last night, so I understand that betting the Under might seem a little bit “scary.” But the key takeaway from Monday’s loss is that the Kings made a franchise record 23 three pointers. Portland, with its average offense, won’t come close to that number.

In fact, the Blazers just put up only 106, 99 and 105 points in those three road losses. They do average a lot more than that at home (118.5 points/game), but in the first game back may struggle a bit. 

Something else to consider is that Orlando only averages 106.5 points/game on the road. 

I just think that this number is way too high, especially when you consider that the Blazers have gone Under in seven of their last eight. 10*

I played VCU on Saturday, laying 5.5 against Davidson. They came through for me, winning in rather dominant fashion, 89-72. Let’s go back to the well with the Rams again.

VCU actually fell behind Davidson 10-0 after the first four minutes. But from there, it was all Rams. I don’t see them falling behind like that here against Loyola Chicago, so expect another comfortable victory. 

Loyola has now failed to cover five in a row after it was beaten 86-75 at George Mason over the weekend. That was also the Ramblers’ fourth consecutive SU loss. Drew Valentine’s team is struggling big time right now as each of those four losses were by double digits. 

Bettors can’t be happy with this Loyola team, who is 3-12 ATS in all games this season. Even getting points hasn’t really helped as they are 1-4 ATS in that role. After giving up 80 or more points in the previous game (as is the case here), the Ramblers are 0-4 ATS this season.

Give me VCU and it’s 52nd ranked defense. Loyola is outside the top 200 defensively. Lay the short number. 10*

With the College Football National Championship front and center, there’s not much College Basketball on tonight’s docket. But this is a game worth paying attention to.

New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country, but has now dropped two in a row including an 84-77 decision here at home to UNLV Saturday night. I thought that result was undeserved and the Lobos were the better team. Nevertheless, they come into Monday looking to avoid a third consecutive defeat as favorites.

Oral Roberts has won 10 straight, but three of the last five victories have been by exactly three points. 

I’m looking at the total here as we’ve got a very high number. Both teams are Top 32 in tempo and ORU is Top 20 in offensive efficiency. The last six New Mexico games have all gone Over the total.

Yet so much has to “go right” to get Over a number this large. Note that NONE of those L6 NM games would have gone Over this number (though the last one would have if this line trickles down any further).  Three of the last four games involving Oral Roberts saw 145 or less total points scored. I’m on the Under.

The Grizzlies just keep winning as they ran their streak to six straight with last night’s 123-118 victory over Utah. That win streak will be expected to continue here as Memphis is a double digit favorite at home over San Antonio.

Should be noted that the Grizzlies did not cover the spread in last night’s game. I have no interest in laying double digits with them in the second night of a back to back. So let’s check out the total, which seems a little high given the Spurs have the third worst offensive rating in the league.

Memphis’ own offensive rating is just middle of the pack (16th).

This number is likely inflated due to the fact the Over is also on a 10-1 run in Spurs’ games. The last three Grizzlies’ games have also all gone Over. But there has yet to be a time all season where the Grizz went Over in four straight.

Certainly worth paying attention to is the fact that Ja Morant was a late scratch for the Grizzlies last night due to right thigh soreness. San Antonio was without three starters in its last game. 10*

TCU seems like a pretty square dog to me. Including the semifinal win over Michigan, they have six wins by eight points or less. Give them credit for getting here, but the Horned Frogs are severely outclassed in this National Championship matchup with Georgia. 

Against Michigan, the Horned Frogs needed two pick-sixes and a pair of turnovers at the goal line. And they still only won by six! They were outgained for the game 528-488.

While Georgia did trail almost the entire game against Ohio State, they actually did outgain the Buckeyes 533-467. And OSU is a much better team than TCU, who may not have its starting running back for this game. 

The Bulldogs have not only won 10 straight times as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, but they have covered the spread in 9 of those 10 wins. 

I think in a situation like this, it’s typically a good idea to fade the crowd and it’s pretty clear to me that vast majority of people are taking the points in this one. I think that’s a mistake. UGA wins big and repeats as National Champs. 10*

Buffalo played a typical Sabres-style game last time out, scoring 6 times and allowing 5 goals.  They are 8-2 L10 and have potted 39 goals in those wins. They host the 6-4 Flyers on Monday, who were blown out by the Leafs on Sunday.  With back to back games and travel, fatigue could be a factor for Philadelphia.  The Flyers are below .500 on the road and are a below average defensive team.  7 of their last 10 game have gone over the total. They will run out a back up goalie against the Sabre's #1 offense and #2 power play. The Sabres have plenty of firepower, but still struggle on defense, allowing on average 3.4 goals against.

I am wagering on the over for Monday's match-up.  Look for the Sabres to light it up against a road-weary Flyers team.

The Clippers badly need to get back on track. They’ve lost five in a row and failed to cover the spread in the last four games. 

The Hawks aren’t in any better shape as they’ve dropped six of eight amidst chemistry issues. As a three-point favorite, they were beaten by the Lakers on Friday and gave up 130 points.

There’s seemingly always a question about Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s statuses when you play the Clippers, but I like them regardless tonight. This will be just the second time in the last nine games that they get to play at home. 

Atlanta was down 70-49 at the half to the Lakers and is 7-13 on the road. 

Look for this to be a “get right” spot for LA.  10*

The Capitals whipped the Blue Jackets last week in Columbus, and now face them at home.  The Blue Jackets are playing their 2nd game in two nights on Sunday.  Columbus is appalling on the road at just 2-12 this year.  The Capitals are a strong home team and will be much tougher to play against with the return of Backstrom and  everyone's favorite, Tom Wilson.  The Blue Jackets are not as fortunate, still with a very long list of injuries. Ranking 30th in both goals scored and PP, and 31st in goals allowed, they will have their hands full against the Capitals' top ten offense and defense.
Merzlikins (4.78,.861 SV %) had an ugly game vs the Capitals in his first appearance in nearly a month.  It has been a tough season for him, not helped by an exceptionally poor and depleted defense in front of him.  Kuemper will start for Washington tonight, and he has been steady.
With just 2 wins in the last 10 games, Columbus is a very large underdog today. They upset the 'Canes in Columbus last night in a shoot-out, managing just 18 shots while giving up 42.  They travel today, and there is little chance of another win tonight.  Take the Capitals in a repeat performance, winning on the puck line at -1 1/2.

The Seahawks let the season get away after that promising start, but all is not quite lost yet. A win against the Rams gives them a statistical chance.  Seattle rallied last week, putting up 23 points against a tough Jets defense.  Smith was solid again, and a little more diverse in his targets and RB Walker is finally back in form, off a pair of 100 yard games in his last two starts.  Their defense has been the stumbling block but it has shown recent improvement against some tough competition in their last three weeks. At this point it is at least better than the Rams'.
Other than the blow-out vs a hapless Broncos team, the Rams have not impressed, especially last week against the Chargers.  Other than Mayfield the Rams don't have much to play for.  They are up against an all-in Seahawks team that is tough at home.  And, they'll be playing in the rain.  The Rams defense has taken a huge turn for the worse lately.  They gave up 430 yards last week.  Their rushing defense has disintegrated, and their pass defense, sub-par all season, allowed a 120 rating with 0 sacks last week.  They will likely continue to run the ball, but Seattle's run defense has shown well lately.
A driven Seattle team will win and cover against the Rams, as LA plays out the string after a very disappointing season.

Let’s head to the MAAC Sunday afternoon where Manhattan will look to get back on track hosting Niagara. The Jaspers have lost three straight, the last two coming at home. They were slight favorites (-2) to beat Canisius earlier in the week, but went down 64-57. I don’t see this team losing three in a row at home, so as a dog, they are my lone College Hoops play for Sunday.

Now Niagara comes in riding a four-game win streak, the last two coming as short underdogs. The Purple Eagles beat Rider and Fairfield to start 2023, the latter on the road. But just like I cannot see Manhattan losing three straight at home, I can’t see Niagara making it five wins in a row.  

Let’s point out that Thursday’s win at Fairfield was an OT game for Niagara and they really benefited from horrible shooting by the opposition, who went 31.8% overall from the floor and 2 of 16 from three. I don’t see Manhattan shooting that poorly here.

There have not been many wins so far for the 4-10 Jaspers. But being underdogs here should lead to a sense of “disrespect” as I believe the home team feels it can certainly win this one.

Also worth pointing out that Niagara is the 3rd luckiest team in the country per KenPom. They are 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less so far, which does not even include the overtime game on Thursday. The only other time that the Purple Eagles were road favorites this season, they lost outright to New Jersey Tech 62-53. Take the points here. (Probably won’t need them though). 10* 

The Ravens, missing Lamar Jackson and other starters, travel to Cincinnati, to face Burrow and the mostly healthy Bengals. Taking the emotional unknown of last week's tragic event out of the game, this is not a situation that favors Baltimore. The Bengals are very much pass-first, in spite of a fine if underused RB in Mixon.  While Baltimore is very tough against the run, the Ravens' pass defense is barely average this year, and while they've shown improvement vs the pass lately, the Ravens have not faced a top QB since the Jags.  The Ravens can successfully press a QB, but Burrow is an old hand vs passer pressure, and the Bengals O line is much improved this year.
The Ravens struggle to put up points at any time.  They are reliant on the run game, and with Jackson out, it is up to Dobbins, with Huntley, if he plays, chipping in some yards.  Not to underestimate Dobbins, but the Bengals' defense will be the toughest rush defense that Baltimore has faced.  Note that the Steelers' 7th rated rush defense was able to hold Baltimore to 120 yards last week, down considerably from their 160+ average.
It remains to be seen if the Bengals can put last week's event at least on hold, but I do feel that, otherwise this game is a bit of a mismatch.  Look for the Bengals, with their fine air attack to win and cover.

Here is a very good situation for a Big Bad Bruins win.  Boston is 7-3 L10, but a fine 11-4 on the road this season.  They catch the Sharks on the wrong end of a back to back, with Reimer who has struggled lately, in net.  The Sharks are horrible at home with just 4 wins to date.  They are languishing down in the cellar on defense and aren't much better on offense. The Bruins by comparison, with the best defense and PK in the league, are also #2 in goals scored and #4 on the power play.   Ullmark should start and he is in the  Vezina conversation for his season's play, not to mention super-sharp in recent action.

Boston is a legitimate large favorite for Saturday, but with both offensive and defensive prowess, they are also a solid bet on the puck line.  Take the Bruins to take on prisoners, winning and covering against the Sharks.

The Titans are on the road, facing a surging Jags team for all the marbles.  While last week’s loss was more of a rest game, the Titans have stumbled almost unbelievably in their last 6 games, with the defense regressing almost everywhere but rushing yards allowed and yards per attempt.  Compare to the Jags’ defense who have shown real improvement down the stretch.  Points against totals are hugely better, and they are much tougher in the red zone and against the run.  Even their passing game is improving,  a bonus against the Titans poor pass offense.
On offense, there really is no comparison.  The Jags have much better rushing stats than Tennessee, supposedly the Titans’ realm.  Lawrence was not as strong last time out, but his improvement this year has been a real eye-opener.  He will face one of the easier pass defenses this week.  The Jags’ offense is much more balanced; the run offense has averaged 160+ yards in the last three weeks, although they will face a tough Titans’ run defense.
Not to mention beating the Titans just 4 weeks ago, the Jags have also beaten the Cowboys and the Texans, both of whom won against the Titans in recent weeks. The Titans REALLY miss Tannehill, and even with the King returning this week,  the Titans will have more than their hands full on Saturday.  Other than an attack of nerves, this game is there for the Jags to take.  Jaguars will win, cover, and head into the play-offs.

Bad spot here for New Orleans, who is in the second game of a back to back without Zion Willamson and Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans fought valiantly last night at home, but ultimately lost to the Nets 108-102 and didn’t cover the 4-point spread.

Dallas had Friday off and should come out angry here after having their seven-game win streak snapped in embarrassing fashion Thursday when they were blown out here at home by the Celtics, 124-95. 

It has to be very frustrating for the Pelicans to look at that final score from last night as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving miss a combined 32 shots for Brooklyn. NO had its own shooting woes in the second half, however, making just 2 of 12 threes. They finished the game at 39.8% overall. 

While the Pelicans have been an excellent home team so far, they are below .500 on the road (7-10 SU) and this is not the situation to get back on track.

The Mavericks were 29-9 ATS the previous two seasons when off a game like Thursday where they were held under 100 points. They haven’t been as profitable in that situation this season, but it’s still a good spot to jump on as Luka should have another big game. 10*

The Suns are a bit of a mess right now due to Devin Booker being injured. The team has lost four straight. In the last two games, they’ve finished with only 83 and 88 points.

But all four of those losses came on the road. I know that when a team is playing its first home game following a long road trip, it’s usually not the best time to jump on board. However, the Suns should be very happy to be back at home where they are 14-5 this season.

Miami is at the end of a five-game road trip here. They’ve won two and lost two thus far. The last game saw the Heat lose to a Lakers team that did not have LeBron James or Anthony Davis. They let Dennis Schroder go for a season-high 32 points.

Mostly because of injuries, the Heat have underperformed this season. They are just a game above .500 and sitting eighth in the Eastern Conference standings. But due to Phoenix’s recent woes and the short number, my guess is that most bettors will be on the road favorite here. I think that’s a mistake. 

The Suns almost won at Cleveland on Wednesday and that is not an easy place to play. (Cavs are 18-4 at home). They lost on a last second jumper by Evan Mobley. I think this is a good buy low spot on Phoenix, who isn’t a home dog very often. Miami is 7-18 ATS as a favorite this season. 8*

Akron hasn’t had much success on the road this season, but the Zips have won six of seven overall and tonight I expect them to go into Ball State, and at the very least, cover the number.

Ball State has won six in a row themselves. The Cardinals opened MAC play by winning at Toledo, 90-83 as an 8.5 point underdog. Coming off a win like that is usually a good time to fade a team. I just can’t see BSU matching the kind of shooting we saw from them in the last game (52.5% overall, 11 of 22 from three). 

The underdog has a big edge defensively in this game, ranking 103rd in efficiency while the favorite is just 235th in that department.

Akron has also had Ball State’s number, winning and covering all four meetings the last two seasons. Every win has been by at least nine points. 

I just think that the better team is getting points in this one. Ball State is 1-3 ATS this year after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. 

Back on 12/21, the Raptors handed the Knicks a 113-106 loss at Madison Square Garden. New York came into that game on an 8-game win streak, then promptly lost its next five (including the game vs. Toronto). But the Knicks are now seemingly back on track with three straight wins and they’re back in the top six of the Eastern Conference.

Toronto came into that last meeting with the Knicks on a six-game losing streak. Fast forward to today and they are reeling yet again with losses in four out of their last five games. A massive rally Wednesday against Milwaukee (trailed by 21 with 3:50 to go) was ultimately in vain as the Raptors eventually lost in OT.  They are now 3-10 L13 games.

As tempting as the points look here, the Knicks’ three straight victories have come at the expense of: Houston, San Antonio and a depleted Phoenix team.

I like the Under here as - even with OT - the Raptors’ last game only saw 205 combined points scored. They have not shot the ball well of late (42.9% L5 games) and the Knicks don’t shoot well when they are on the road (43.8%). 

Pascal Siakam scored 52, a career-high for him, in that previous meeting. That won’t happen again. The Under is 11-5 in the Knicks’ previous 16 road games. 10* 

Nashville knocked off the 'Canes last night, leaning on Saros' monster 67 save performance. He won't be in the net tonight, as Preds' are on the road against against a tough Capitals team.  Washington, now 7-3 L10, also played last night, winning easily.  They are at home tonight where they are an impressive 12-5 this season.  They shut out Nashville in the only other time they faced the Predators.

Nashville is just .500 on the road, and 5 -5 in their last ten games.  They struggle to score this season, among the bottom-dwellers in goals-for and on the Power Play, while are exactly average on defense.  The Capitals are a top ten offense and defense, and have an excellent PK.  In the tale of the fill-in goalies, the Capitals have a decided edge.  Lindgren has been sharp, while playing on a regular basis. The Preds' Lankinen has played just twice in the last month, allowing 5 goals in each appearance.

It isn't just the goal-tender who will be tired after a 60+shot onslaught.  Look for the Capitals, with no travel today, to be the fresher of the two teams.  Take the ageless Ovechkin and the Capitals to continue their success at home and win today.

The Bruins and Kings clash in LA tonight, meeting for the second time this year.  The Kings, a very good home team this year, beat the Bruins in December.  Boston will be looking for revenge tonight, and are super-strong on the road this year at 10-4.  Boston, with the 2nd most goals-scored and the 6th ranked power play, face a Kings team whose defensive stats (23rd goals against, 28th PK)are well below average.  Boston is very tough on defense as well, 1st in goals-against, and PK against an average Kings offense.  Ullmark is the likely starter for the Bruins.  He is arguably the best net-minder this season, and is both good and consistent.  Quick is expected for the Kings tonight.  Quick may be showing his age this year, struggling for the season and in recent games as well.
The Bruins have been a bit inconsistent in recent games, splitting their last 4, but there is no doubting that this is a legitimate 1st place team.  I am not willing to gamble on LA taking 2 straight, even with their home record.  Look for the Bruins to step it up tonight, evening up the series.  The odds are not onerous, considering Boston's talent and record.  Take Boston to win.

Two teams looking to make their mark in the West Coast Conference square off late Thursday as San Diego welcomes in Pacific.

San Diego (8-8 SU, 5-9 ATS) is off a big win as 11-point underdogs at San Francisco. This will be the Toreros first time playing at the Jenny Craig Pavilion since an 84-58 win over UC San Diego back on December 12th. They went 2-3 SU/ATS on the recently completed road swing.

Pacific (8-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) is also coming off an outright win as they beat Loyola Marymount 78-72 as a 4.5-point underdog. But that was at home. I don’t see a second straight upset win in the cards for the Tigers.

San Diego is averaging over 80 points/game at home this season. They are #59 in the country in offensive efficiency as per KenPom.

The defensive numbers aren’t great for the Toreros, but I also don’t think Pacific can take advantage. This is a Tigers team that lost to a non-DI school (CS-East Bay) at home last month. They also lost by 20 at home to BYU. Lay the points here. 8*

On Tuesday, the Celtics were blown out in the most shocking way imaginable, 150-117 by Oklahoma City. It was the most points allowed in a game by the franchise since 1979! 

It was also the Celtics’ second loss in a row. I played against them on New Year’s Day when they started this four-game road trip with a 123-111 loss at Denver. Despite basically being fully healthy, the Celtics have dropped five of nine overall.

But they are still the best team in basketball in my view and their reputation still carries a lot of weight in the marketplace as they are favored here, on the road, over a Dallas team that’s on a seven-game win streak.

These teams met back in November, in Boston, and the Celtics won 125-112 as 5.5-point favorites.

You know we’re going to get an inspired showing from the Celtics after they got humiliated by one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. 10* 

Last month, Fairleigh Dickinson gave a truly horrific effort against Richmond, actually trailing at the half 42-9! The Knights then lost their next game, 82-73 to Queens U, one of the new D-I programs this season. But they battled back and posted consecutive wins to end 2022, first beating Merrimack 71-63 and then Centenary 99-50.

Certainly, those wins won’t impress anyone, but it is not as if Wednesday’s opposition, St. Francis (NY), is anything to be concerned about. This is not exactly the marquee matchup for Thursday College Hoops. FDU is rated #328 at KenPom while SFNY is #348. 

FDU is one of the worst defensive teams in the country, but has the edge offensively and I think their tempo (70th fastest in the country) will bother St. Francis.

In their last game, St. Francis lost to Central Connecticut State, another of the worst teams in the country. Actually, they didn’t just lose, they got beat by 22! 

The fact that this is a revenge game for FDU (five straight losses to St. Francis) puts them over the top for me. Homecourt advantage won’t mean much on a Thursday afternoon. 10*

Expect plenty of points Wednesday night when the Hawks and Kings match up. Last night, Sacramento scored 117 pts for the 7th time in the last 10 games as they beat Utah by two. 

At home, the Kings are averaging 122.3 points/game this year. That’s the good news. But the bad news is they also allow 118.9 points/game here.

Atlanta is horrible defensively. Yes, the 143-141 loss to Golden State Monday was a double overtime game. But this is a team that has also allowed 129 to Indiana and 130 to the Lakers in regulation over their last four games. 

The Over is 13-5 this season when the Hawks hit the road. The Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings between these teams, but it’s time for an Over. They only combined for 221 points in a November matchup, but neither team shot all that well and the Kings were 30% from three-point range. 8*