The set-up: These teams don't play a lot of defense most nights. The Mavs have lost three of their last five though and they come in off a terrible performance at home, giving up a season high 133 points in a loss to the lowly Suns:

"This team has done so many things to get people excited about it and really worked hard to get into a solid position at this point in time," coach Rick Carlisle said. "A performance like this is just tough. Nights like this do happen, but this was extreme."

Suffice it to say, I expect the visiting side to double down on the defensive end tonight, as clearly the last thing it'll want to do is to get into a shootout on the road with the Rockets. 

Houston enters off a road loss in Portland. 

The pick: note as well that Dallas has seen teh total go under the number in three of four already this season after a loss by ten points or more, while Houston has seen the total go under in ten of 16 already this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Mavericks/Rockets.

The set-up: This is each team's first game back after the All Star break. Pittsburgh lost 3-0 to Philadelphia in each team's final game before the break, making this a prime "revenge" scenario for the home side. Note that the Pens are 18-5-3 at home this season, while the Flyers are just 10-13-2 on the road. 

The pick: Pittsburgh is 9-1 in its last ten vs. clubs with winning records, while Philly is just 1-4 in its last five on the road as an underdog in the -135 to -165 range. All things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. 

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The set-up: I think the 14-4 Yale Bulldogs get caught looking past the 6-12 Columbia Lions. Columbia is 1-1 in Conference play after falling to Cornell at home last time out 62-50. Yale comes in complacent here though in my opinion after four straight wins, including starting conference play 2-0. Columbia averages 66.8 PPG and it allows 69.1. Yale averages 75.7 PPG and it allows 62.7. 

The pick: Note though that Columbia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Yale is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite in the 12.5 to 18 points range. This is a letdown spot for the Bulldogs in my opinion. Conversely, the Lions will be eager to pull of the upset here and while that likely won't happen, everything points to a more competitive battle than what this spread suggests. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Columbia.

The set-up: Toronto's won two in a row, but it'll have to be cautious here to not get caught looking past they lowly Cavs tonight, to their game in Detroit tomorrow. That's then followed by a couple nights off before a home game vs. the lowly Bulls. After two straight victories, the Raptors need to be careful here. The Raptors are one of the best on the defensive end and they'll look to double down tonight vs. Cleveland, which only averages 105.3 PPG this season. 

The pick: Toronto has also already seen the total go under the number in six of its last nine after a blowout win by 15 points or more, while Cleveland has seen the total fall under the number in both games it's played in this year after scoring 105 points or more in four or more straight games. Considering all of the above factors, I definitely think this number is high.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Raptors/Cavaliers.

The set-up: Ashleigh Barty has the entire continent on her side otnight and I expect the heavy hitter to advance in two sets. Barty won her first title event at the French Open in 2019. Sofia Kenin is no push over, as the 21 year old was voted as the WTA's most improved players last year. 

The pick: But if recent history is any precedence, then Barty has to be loving her chances today, as these two have met five times in the past and she's 4-1 in those contests. In front of a packed Rod Laver Arena, I think that Barty gets the job done quickly today. 

10* WTA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER 21.5 -125 from Pinnacle.

The set-up: Toronto can beat any team on any given night. Bust so can the Stars. Ultimately I believe we're getting great line value on this under-rated home team. Both teams came out of the break and posted a victory. Toronto's been decent offensively, averaging 3.60 GPG, but it's had to be, as it allows the eighth highest amount in the defensive end by conceding 3.26 GPG. Dallas is 16-7-2 at home this year. The Stars only average 2.57 GPG, but they only allow 2.43. 

The pick: Dallas plays with revenge here, as it's lost eight of the last ten in this series, including four of the last five in front of the home town crowd. This is the final home game before an Eastern road swing for Dallas, making tonight's game even more important. Toronto on the other hand can't help in getting caught looking ahead to a night off, followed by a "cream puff" at home vs. the Senators. I think Toronto's vastly over-priced in this one.

10* NON-CONF BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Stars.

The set-up: The Bulls look poised for a letdown here after back-to-back victories, most recently topping the Spurs. Chicago's poor defense catches a bit of a break today, as the Pacers' aren't the fastest paced team. The Bulls offense though averages only a paltry 105.7 PPG. Also note that Chicago's main offensive weapon Zach LaVine injured his ankle last time out and he's been listed as questionable here. Indiana only allows 107.1 PPG. Victor Oladipo finally makes his return to the Pacers' line-up after more than a year off with a knee injury and while his presence will benefit the team over the long-term, I think it'll throw a monkey-wrench into things on the offensive side of the court to begin with. 

The pick: Note as well that Chicago has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge two straight losses vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Indiana has seen the toal dip below the posted number in four of five this year when playing with two days rest and in seven of ten vs. the division. This number is a tad high considering all of the above information.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Bulls/Pacers.

The set-up: The Spartans and Wildcats played on December 18th and MSU hung on for the 77-72 win. I expect a similarily hard-fought affair tonight as well. MSU is tied for first in the Big Ten with a 7-2 record, while Northwestern is just 1-8 in league play. Note though that the Wildcats have faced the 17th most difficult schedule in the country according to BPI. Most recently the Wildcats fell 71-59 to the Buckeyes. Overall NW averages 66.3 PPG and it allows 67.6. The Spartans lost 67-63 in Indiana, then bounced back with a 70-52 win over Minnesota. MSU averages 77.1 PPG and it allows 63.2. 

The pick: On paper MSU is the better team, but Northwestern comes in as the much "hungrier" side this evening. Note that none of the Wildcats' eight losses in conference play have come by more than 14 points. Additionally note that NW is 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog of 13 points or more. I believe the home side leaves the back door open just enough for desperate visiting team to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Northwestern.

The set-up: The Blues are off a 3-1 loss in Vancouver just last night and clearly they'll be "hungry" and "eager" to avoid the back-to-back losses, but Calgary plays with revenge on its home ice and it's well rested after the All Star break. Despite anything else that's going on on the ice in this one, these three situational factors are all clearly working heavily in favor of the home side tonight. 

The pick: Additionally note that Calgary is 4-0 in its last four vs. the Western Conference, while St. Louis is now 0-5 in its last five vs. clubs with winning records. This is a great price on Calgary considering all of the different favorable factors working in its favor listed above. In fact, I'll go so far as to say that this is the very definition of "great line value." 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Flames. 

The set-up: Off a rare double-digit home win over the Wizards, I think the struggling Hawks take a step back on the offensive end in this difficult road venue. Yes the Hawks allow a ghastly 117.8 PPG, but Toronto plays at a slower pace this year anyways. After Trae Young, Atlanta gets pretty thin. The Raptors are getting healthier as we head towards the All Star break, but this is a game in which they can "control" from start to finish without too much worry. From a situational stand point I think this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: Note as well that Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 15 in trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent, while Toronto has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 15 off a road victory. The situation and the numbers/trends all point to a lower-scoring under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Hawks/Raptors. 

The set-up: Nebraska is 7-13 and I think it'll have its hands full here with this determined 11-8 Michigan team. After starting 7-0, the Wolverines have gone just 8-4 since. The Wolverines had plenty of turn-over from last season and they've been dealing with injuries, but Nebraska is the perfect opponent to get untracked against. 

The pick: Note that Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six after a loss by six points or less and 5-0 ATS in its last five after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games, while Nebraska is already just 4-6 ATS at home this season and only 4-6 ATS this year after covering the spread in its previous game. I'm laying the points and expecting the "hungrier" team to deliver tonight.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan.

The set-up: The Vandals won't be lacking for motivation today as they've dropped four in a row. The Southern Utah Thunderbirds can empathize, as they've lost two of their last three, including a crushing OT loss to EWU last time out. The "revenge factor" comes into play here as well for the home side, who has lost three straight in this series, including two in a row at home. 

The pick: Southern Utah averages 67 PPG and it allows 64. The Vandals have a stout defense as well which holds the opposition to just under 38 percent shooting on the year. Southern Utah is just 4-5 ATS this season as a favorite, while Idaho is 9-7 ATS as an underdog. In a contest which I envision being decided late, I'm grabbing as many points as I can.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Idaho.

The set-up: I think Luka Doncic will single-handidly will his team to victory here as he tries to make some sense of Kobe Bryant's death. The entire NBA World is in shock still and Doncic had a special early and recent relationship with Black Mamba. The Mavs are coming off a loss in Utah as well. OKC has won five straight and I think it's poised for a letdown here finally though. Also note that the Mavs play with the revenge factor after falling 106-101 here earlier in the season. Overall Dallas averages 116.6 PPG and it allows 108.1. The Thunder though average 110.8 PPG and they allow 109.8. 

The pick: Additionally note that Dallas is still a sharp 7-3 ATS this year as a road underdog and 5-2 ATS in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite this season, while OKC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games. Everything points to a big bounce back for this potent Mavs' offense in my opinion. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dallas Mavericks.

The set-up: While I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Orlando has lost 12 straight in this series, so motivation to break that slide is definitely working in their favor as well. The Clippers come in content after winning five of their last six, while the Magic have lost four of their last five. Most recently LA beat the Heat 122-117. LA averages 112.7 PPG and it allows 106.7. The Magic though are desperate here after a listless 109-98 to the Celtics on Friday. The Magic are averaging 105.8 PPG and they're allowing 106.8. 

The pick: Orlando's early offensive numbers are skewed though because of early injusry issues, but there's no excuses today. Note as well that the Clippers are already a poor 7-10 ATS this season after scoring 120 points or more, while Orlando is a perfect 2-0 ATS off two or more consecutive upset losses as a home favorite. With a game "on the road" at the Lakers on Tuesday, I believe the visitors rest players and get caught looking ahead as well. Grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Orlando Magic.

The set-up: Houston is 13-9 on the road this year and it comes in riding a two-game win streak. Denver is 17-6 at home and it won last time out. I look for these two Western Conference hopefuls to get out and push the pace from start to finish. The Rockets have not been great defensively, allowing 114.2 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by pouring in 118.7 PPG. Five players score in double-digits for the visitors. Denver plays at a slower pace, averaging 109.3 PPG and allowing 106. But un-like Houston, the strength of the team lies in its depth with six players scoring in double figures.

The pick: Houston scored 121 points vs. Denver just a few nights ago and I believe we'll see another higher-scoring shootout in this one as well. With the visitors pushing the pace, look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Rockets/Nuggets.

The set-up: I think 7-11 Fordham sneaks in under the radar here and finds a way to keep this one competitive vs. 14-5 St. Louis. The Rams come in with momentum as well, as they broke a five-game slide with a win over George Washington last time out. Saint Louis however enters suscepitble after two straight losses in my opinion. The Rams have struggled offensively this year, but the defense has been sharp in allowing only 61 PPG. The Billikens allow 66. And note that over its last four games Saint Louis has averaged just 66 PPG. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Billikens are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Fordham is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games following a SU/ATS win/cover. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Fordham.

The set-up: Two teams hungry for a win are going to push each other from start to finish in my opinion and ultimately I believe that this frenetic pace will help in pushing this total well above the posted number. Washington is 12-8 and Colorado is 15-4. The Huskies come to town off two straight losses, but coming by a a combined four points, most recently falling 67-66 to Utah. Overall the Huskies are averaging 70.4 PPG and they're allowing 62.8. The Buffaloes have won three of four. Overall they average 70.4 PPG and they allow 61.7. 

The pick: Note though that Washington has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 11 road games after back-to-back losses, while Colorado has seen the total fly over in six of its last seven after having won three out of its last four SU. On paper this looks like it would be a defensive affair, but I believe these Pac 12 contendors push the tempo. THis is a very low total and I believe it flies over sooner, rather than later. Play the over.

10* PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Huskies/Buffalos.

The set-up: Dallas is a different team this year than in season's past, but it's still significant to note that it's lost six straight at Smart Home Arena. The Mavs come to town having won five of their last six games. Not to be outdone though, Utah enters on a three-game win streak. This is the first time these team's have met up this season, but I'm expecting an all out war from start to finish. Dallas comes in off a 133-125 road win in Porltand, but I can't see the Mavs producing like that in this tough road venue. The Jazz throttled Golden State last time out 129-96.

The pick: Note as well that Dallas has in fact seen the total dip under the number in ten of its last 14 after allowing 110 points or more in four straight games, while Utah has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of five already this season after a blowout win by 20 points or more. Everything points to this one being more of a defensive battle, than a high-scoring shootout. 

10* TOTAL SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Mavericks/Jazz. 

The set-up: The Citadel Bulldogs return home to start a two-game home stand. The Citadel is 54-47 all time vs. the Paladins in Charleston. The Citadel play with revenge here as well after Furman took both games last year. Furman is the better team on paper, but after its win over Samford, I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent tonight. 

The pick: Also note that Furman is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road and off a victory and as a favorite of ten points or more, while Citadel is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a home dog in the ten to 15.5 points range and off a loss. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Grab the points.

10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on Citadel.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the conditions are now right for a lower-scoring battle. The Kings will be hungry here to get off the schneid after six straight losses, including a 20 point loss in Detroit last time out. The Bulls are coming off a win at home, but just like their counterparts today, consistency from game to game is a major issue for them this season. Neither plays great defense, but each comes in believing they can win this game. I expect each to double down on the defensive end this evening as they try to earn an elusive win. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Kings have seen the total go under the number in 18 of their last 26 as a road dog of six points or less, while Chicago has seen the total dip under in six of nine already this season after scoring 115 points or more in its previous outing. Considering all of the above information, I do indeed feel that this number is a little high.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Kings/Bulls.

The set-up: BOston is 11-9 away from TD Garden and it enters on a two-game win streak. Orlando is 13-9 at home this year and it's looking to bounce back off a loss. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 105.7. Orlando averages 104 PPG and it concedes a league best 104 as well. Orlando has gotten healthier over the last month and that's seen the team have a dramatic turnaround in play across the board. The Magic though allow only 100 PPG at home, while the Celtics' offensive average drops to 108 on the road. 

The pick: Additionally note that Boston is a poor 2-4 ATS this year already after two or more consecutive home victories, while Orlando is a sharp 3-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. Boston is dealing with injuries right now as well. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive home victory.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Orlando Magic.

The set-up: Yale is 13-4 and its on the road to take on a hungry 7-7 Brown Bears team. Brown plays with revenge here, as it fell at Yale in mid January by a score of 70-56. Yale comes in off an 89-75 road win at Howard, but I think the Bulldogs will have their hands full tonight. This is a great situational play in my opinion, as Brown has had an extended period off, having not played since the loss at Yale. 

The pick: On paper Yale has the advantage, but note that it's just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing a game as a road favorite, while Brown is 4-2 ATS in its last six revenging a road loss of ten points or more and 4-1 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more. I think the outright upset is definitely possible, but in the end I'm going to grab the points.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Brown.

The set-up: Clearly the Nets have a lot of issues to resolve. They've been a much better home team than on the road though and they won't be lacking for motivation tonight facing the Lakers. LA comes to town off a come from behind win in New York just last night and it could very likely be sitting key pieces of its rotation in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Situationally I believe this one sets up great for the hungrier home side. 

The pick: But note as well that the Lakers are still just 8-9 ATS in non-conference games this year and only 40-49 ATS in their last 89 vs. clubs with losing records, while Brooklyn is already 6-3 ATS this season as a home underdog. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter." 

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Brooklyn Nets.

The set-up: FIU is 13-6 and after two straight victories, I think it comes in a tiny bit complacnet here vs. 7-12 ODU, which enters off two straight losses. FIU plays at a fast pace, averaging 81 PPG, but its defense is horrible. The Monarchs are coming off a tough 66-62 loss to Charlotte. ODU's defense has been fantastic though, ranked 42nd in the league overall. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that the Monarchs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five at home, while the Panthers just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog after back-to-back victories. I'm laying the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Old Dominion.

The set-up: This is a highly anticpated game in the round of 24. The Wolves are filled with confidence and I look for that momentum to get carried over here after a 3-2 win over Southampton at St. Mary's stadium. Wolverhampton was down two scores as well in that one. 

The pick: The Liverpool Reds however come in off a 2-0 win over Mancheseter United and they'll also be out to keep the foot on the gas here with Man City and Leicester directly behind them in the standings. The Wolves are tough to beat on their own field and they will push Liverpool from start to finish. Look for this pace to result in a higher-scoring "over." 

10* PREMIER LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Liverpool/Wolverhamtpon

The set-up: Winnipeg came out flat in its 4-1 loss in Carolina last night, but it'll look to bounce back strong here in its final game before the All Star break. The Jets fall to 14-11-2 on the road. Columbus is 15-9-2 at home and it's 8-2 in its last ten and 5-0 in its last five. Columbus is fired up here to end the first half on a big win streak and Winnipeg is anxious to bounce back after last night's collapse. Situationally this one sets up as a high-scoring shootout in my opinion.  

The pick: Note as well that Winnipeg has seen the total go over the number in 14 of 20 non-conference games this season, while CBJ has seen the total sail over in three of its last four in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Everything points this one sailing over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Jets/Jackets.

The set-up: I'm expecting an all out brawl until the end in this one. However, I expect much more of a "chess match," than a wide open run and gun "shootout" between these two heated rivals. These teams have both been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but in two games this year, each contests total combined points would have fallen well below tonight's posted number. Both have won on their home floor, with Toronto prevailing 101-96 in November and Philadelphia responding with a 110-104 win in December. Both enter on four game SU win streaks as well. 

The pick: The "under" is 5-1 the last six in this series North of the border. Toronto has the league's second best defense and neither side likes to play at a very fast pace. Considering all of the above situational and trend based factors listed above, I do indeed feel that this O/U line is high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER 76ers/Raptors.

The set-up: The Marist Red Foxes are after their second straight victory after getting the better of Iona 83-73. Matt Herasme had 17 points and 11 boards in the victory. It was a break out game for Marist, as it set season highs for field goal percentage, points scored, three-pointers made, three-point percentage, assists, rebounds and free throws made. The Manhattan Jaspers had won four of five to open league play before then falling 65-58 to Monmouth on Saturday. 

The pick: Manhattan is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after playing two straight home games (including 0-2 ATS this year), while Marist is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game. The Red Foxes come in off an inspiring win and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. That said, grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Marist.

The set-up: These teams are similar. Neither plays great defense and each has an above average offense. Each is filled with plenty of offensive talent as well. Both teams are coming off high-scoring victories, but I believe that the stage is now finally set for more of a defensive affair between these two top Western Conference teams. 

The pick: The trends support this theory as well, as note that the Clippers have seen the total go under the number in five of their last seven when playing with two days rest and in all seven of their games this season as a road underdog, while Dallas has seen the total dip under the number in four of its last five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. I think each team doubles down defensively tonight to try and earn this victory.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks.

The set-up: This game will be broadcast nationally on Fox Sports 1 and I'm expecting an all out war. The Terps are 14-4, but I believe they'll have a fight on their hands today. In fact note, Maryland is 0-4 in true road games this year. The Terps have not let an opponent exceed 70 points in league play so far, but they come in averaging just 71.2 PPG. Northwestern is just 6-11 and it'll have a big opportunity to snap its frustration with a quality win this evening. Easier said than done, but note that the Wildcats do in fact have two wins over Top 100 teams and six of their last seven losses have been by single digits. Northwestern's offense catches a break today facing the slower paced Terrapins.

The pick: Maryland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite (including 0-3 ATS this year), while Northwestern is 8-3 ATS this season as an underdog. This one has "nail-biter" written all over it, so grab the points.

10* play on Northwestern.

The set-up: Chelsea beat Arsenal 2-1 on December 29th and I like it to duplicate that feat in regulation today. Arsenal has struggled with consistency all season and it enters off a poor draw with Sheffield. Arsenal has just two wins out of its last six and its place in the top flight league is in jeopardy. Revenge is a factor I always take into consideration, but Chelsea can ill afford to look past its opponent today after inexplicably falling 1-0 to Newcastle last time out. 

The pick: While Chelsea enters in farily good health though, Arsenal is ravaged by injury, with Lucas Torreira, Calum Chambers, Kieran Tierney and Hector Bellerin all out. I think Frank Lampard has Chelsea in a great spot to bounce back here in regulation.

10* EPL GAME OF THE YEAR on Chelsea.

The set-up: The Pelicans have been more competitive of late. Note though that after playing to ten consecutive "overs," I finally look for a bit of an offensive letdown tonight in this difficult road venue. Most recently the Pels fell 133-130 at home to the Clippers. The Grizzlies will have to be cautious here to not "look past" their lowly opponent tonight, as their seven-game win skein is on the line. Both teams are above average offensively and below average defensively, but the overall situation that each finds itself in lends itself to more of a defensive battle in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that NOs has seen the total go under the number in two of three already this season after scoring 130 points or more in its previous game, while Memphis has seen the total dip below the posted number in 23 of its last 36 vs. the division. All signs point to this one falling well below this sky high number.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Pelicans/Grizzlies.

The set-up: On paper the Bucks are the much better team here. At 38-6 though, I think the home side comes out a bit complacent here vs. this 16-28 Bulls team. Chicago though does come in with some momentum after taking down the Cavaliers 118-116 last time out. The Bucks average 119.5 PPG and the Bulls average only 105.8. Chicago though had key players injured again to start the season, so this offense is only finally starting to come together. Both however sport similar defensive numbers, with the Bulls allowing only 107.8 PPG, while the Bucks concede 106.9. 

The pick: Chicago is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a road dog and 5-3 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a blowout loss vs. an opponent of 20 points or more, while Milwaukee is just 11-14 ATS already this season after three or more SU victories. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a competitive battle.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Chicago Bulls.

The set-up: Charlotte is 10-6, but it comes in off an 80-63 loss to WKU. A game vs. 6-12 ODU sets up as a look-ahead/let-down spot for the 49ers though in my opinion. And ODU definitely won't be lacking for motivation here after it fell 68-67 to Marshall last time out. 

The pick: Note as well that Charlotte is a terrible 11-19 ATS in its last 30 as a road dog (including only 2-3 ATS this season), while ODU is a strong 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion.

The set-up: The Packers jumped out to an early lead vs. the Seahawks in the Divisional Round and then had to hold on for dear life for the victory. Green Bay took the foot off the gas, but it won't have that luxury this weekend in hostile territory. The Packers lost to the 49ers in the regular season, but I believe Aaron Rodgers and company have much more than just a "punchers chance" at winning this one outright. The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 last weekend. San Francisco has the home field advantage and the slightly better defense, but Green Bay still has the clear advantage at the QB position in my opinion. Jimmy Garropolo is putting together a great season, but would anyone out there claim that he's solely responsible for getting his team to this point? Rodgers' vast experience gives the Packers the upper-hand at the QB position in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Green Bay is already 3-1 ATS as an underdog thi syear, while San Fran is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more straight wins vs. the spread, including only 1-3 ATS this season. Grab the points, expect a battle until the final moments.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Packers.

The set-up: I think 6-11 Illinois State is the "hungrier" team here. Clearly the outright win isn't out of the question with a spread like this, but I'm going to grab the points in the end. Most recently Illinois State fell 84-74 to Drake to fall to 1-4 in Conference play. Overall the Redbirds average 67.2 PPG and they allow 70.6. Loyola Chicago averages 70 PPG and it allows 61. On paper and as stated above, this one favors the visitors. But I believe the Ramblers come in complacent after two straight wins. 

The pick: Note as well that Loyola Chicago is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games following a two games or more unbeaten ATS/SU streak, while Illinois State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games following a loss by ten or more points and as an underdog of four points or less. Everything points to the slight upset, grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Illinois State.

The set-up: Miami looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its impressive road win over the Thunder, while I expect the Spurs to risk life and limb here for a victory after getting embarrassed at home by the Hawks in a close loss. Miami is at home tomorrow night as well to the Kings, so I believe this does in fact set up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors as well. The Spurs are now below .500 and they can ill afford to look past anyone. San Antonio has a game tomorrow night in Phoenix vs. an equally as desperate Suns team, making tonight's contest that much more imporant for the home side here. 

The pick: Note that Miami is just 4-5 ATS this year as a road favorite and only 4-5 ATS this season off a road win, while San Antonio is a sharp 7-3 ATS this season in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. Look for the home side to pull away down the stretch.

10* NON-CONFERENCE BEST OF THE BEST on the San Antonio Spurs.

The set-up: The Titans have been giant killers in the second half of the season. Certainly that's been the case in the Playoffs so far as well, knocking off both the Patriots and the Ravens. The Chiefs mounted an incredible come from behind blowout victory over Texans last weekend, but at one point there was considerable panic from all KC fans. Yes, Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is scary. But the Titans counter that with great defensive play and by running the ball a lot while their offense, behind the bruising play of RB Derrick Henry. 

The pick: In fact, Tennessee exposed the Chiefs' weaknesses already this year with a 35-32 win in the regular season, as Henry went for 188 yards and two TD's on 23 carries. The Titans are excuting at a very high level and they haven't been "beating themselves." It's KC that's going to have to play another perfect game here if it wants to pull off another blowout win and I don't see that happening. I believe we're going to see a battle until the final moments, a "chess match" instead of a "track meet." Note as well that Tennessee has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road dog, while KC has seen the total dip under in both games that it's played in after scoring 40 points or more in its last game. This number is too high.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Titans/Chiefs.

The set-up: Boston won 4-1 at home over Pittsburgh, but I'm expecting a much higher-scoring game tonight. Pittsburgh comes in fired up, off a 2-1 win over the Red Wings on Friday, with captain Sidney Crosby potting the winner in his second game back after a month off with injury. Overall the Bruins average 3.33 GPG and they allow 2.49. The Pens average 3.35 GPG and they allow 2.71. 

The pick: True their game went "under" the number on Thursday, but note that the total has flown over the number in five of these team's last six vs. each other in Pittsburgh and in ten of their last 13 overall. All signs point to this one flying over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Bruins/Penguins.

The set-up: The Knights made a coaching change and then won 4-2 in Ottawa. That game was a "push" as far as the total was concerned. The Habs come in off a 4-1 win over Philadelphia, that game also stayed "under" the number. The Habs are going to have their hands full with a Knights offense which averages 3.04 GPG on the road this season, but they'll have their opportunities as well vs. a defense which allows 3.02. Montreal averages 3.02 GPG at home and it allows 3.10. Add up these numbers any way you want, but it clearly points to this total as being too low today in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that LV has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after a two-game unbeaten streak and coming off a victory of two goals or more, while Montreal has seen the total fly over the number in eight of its last 11 home games following a victory of three goals or more. All things considered, I believe this number is low.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Knights/Habs.

The set-up: These teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the "situation" that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with strong O/U trends that each has exhibited in this spot, both point to the "under" as the being the correct call this afternoon. This is the start of a six-game strip for the Clippers. These teams have already met twice and each has won on its home floor. Both games went over the number. Both teams come in on extended win streaks. Note though that each team is playing without key players today, as Paul George won't suit up for the Clippers and JJ Reddick and Jrue Holiday are out for New Orleans. 

The pick: Note that the Clippers have seen the total go under the number in ten of 14 already this season after a non-conference game and in seven of ten after a home win by ten points or more, while the Pelicans have seen the total dip under in both games they've played in this year after scoring 130 points or more in their previous outing. All things considered, this number is a tad high. 

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Clippers/Pelicans.

The set-up: After falling to Kansas to open league play, WVU has rattled off thee straight Big 12 victories and it enters at 14-2 overall. K-State comes in as the "hungrier" team though as it's lost nine of its last 12. The Wildcats will be looking to get off the schneid here and earn their first conference victory of the year. The Wildcats are sharp defensively as well, holding the opposition to just 61.8 PPG on average. WVU averages only 72.1 PPG and I believe it'll have its hands full with his now desperate home side. 

The pick: Additionally note that WVU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten conference road games after three or more SU/ATS victories, while K-State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after three or more losses and as an underdog of five points or more. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this contest to be decided in the final moments.

10* CASH-BOMB on Kansas State.

The set-up: Dallas plays with revenge here after falling 121-119 in Portland earlier in the season. The Blazers have been more "miss" than "hit" this season, but after two straight victories and playing against this revenge minded home side, I believe Portland reverts to its usual sub-par self. The Mavs have looked better now that Luka Doncic is fully recovered from his ankle injury, as the Mavs enter this one off three straight victories. Doncic had 25 points, 15 boards and 17 assists in the most recent 127-123 win over the Kings. 

The pick: Note as well that Dallas is 10-3-2 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing SU record, while Portland is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in a SU win in its previous outing. After a big win at Houston, I look for the Blazers to stumble in this difficult road venue. Lay the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Dallas Mavericks.

The set-up: I think the 9-6 Rider Broncs get caught lookin past the 4-11 Niagara Purple Eagles tonight. The Broncs come in off a 69-52 win over a weak Marist team, while Niagara enters off a much-needed 70-69 victory over Iona at home in its latest action. Rider has so far averages 72.9 PPG and it's allowed 71.3. The Purple Eagles average 66.6 PPG and they allow 76.2. Clearly on paper Rider is the better team, but I think this one sets up great situationally for the "hungrier" home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Rider is already a poor 2-6 ATS on the road this season and just 3-4 ATS after playing a road game this year, while Niagara is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog. Rider's form on the road hasn't been great and I believe it'll have its hands full. Clearly the outright win isn't out of question, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Niagara.

The set-up: The Golden Knights made a controversial coaching change which hasn't sat well with players, fans and the media. Expectations are so unreal in Las Vegas after its improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural season. Sometimes coaching changes have a positive effect right out of the gate for a team (just look at the Leafs this year as a prime example), but in this case I believe it's going to back fire. The Knights have lost four in a row and I think the Sens are going to pour it on here to try and pull off the upset and to kick this team while its down. Besides, the Sens could care less about a four-game win streak, as they enter desperate to break an eight-game slide. Situationally, this sets up great for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: NOte as well that Las Vegas is a horrible 7-11 (-10.3 units) this year in all non-conference games. These are two poor teams. But in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Senators on the PUCK LINE.

The set-up: These teams are similar. They've both under-performed and they're both in need of a win. Each struggles with offense at times and both are terrible on the defensive end. Each will also view this as a contest that they can win tonight and because of that, I'm expecting an all out battle from start to finish. And then ultimately I believe this sense of extreme competition will help in keeping this total well below the posted number. Note that both teams also come in off beatdown losses, with the Suns falling 123-110 to the Hawks, while the Knicks dropped a 128-102 contest to the Bucks. Situationally this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring under in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Phoenix has seen the total dip under the number in three of its last four after failing to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games, while NY has seen the total go under in ten of 14 as a home dog this season. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Suns/Knicks.

The set-up: I think 4-13 MTSU comes in under the radar here and keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. 11-6 FAU. The Blue Raiders have lost eight straight, while FAU has gone 9-3 in its last 12. The Owls though come off a poor 81-58 loss to UNT and with 11-6 UAB invading in two nights, I think this definitely sets up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side. On paper, clearly FAU is the better team. But losing wears on teams and I don't think we have to question MTSU's resolve and focus tonight. A great situational play for sure here in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that MTSU is a sharp 7-2 ATS in its last nine off two straight losses against a conference rival, while FAU is already a poor 4-5 ATS this season vs. schools with losing records. No outright, but a 'nail-biter.' Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Middle Tennessee State.

The set-up: In a game which I see being decided late or in extra time, I'm going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. I think Brian Elliot and Jordan Binnington are a "wash" here. The Flyers come in off a hard-fought 6-5 shootout win over the Bruins and I think they carry that offensive momentum over here (outshot Boston 39-31.) I think St. Louis, which enters having won four in a row, takes the foot off the gas here in this non-conference matchup. Note that the Blues have two whole nights off after this before an extended Western road trip which games at Colorado, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton all on the horizon. This is definitely a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. 

The pick: Note as well that Philly is 10-5 (+5 units) in its last 15 after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest, while St. Louis is a money-burning 9-9 (-1.9 units) this season in non-conference games.

10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Flyers.

The set-up: The Pacers are the better team on paper. But this is the opener of a home and home set and I think the home side is going to risk life and limb here to try and pull off the minor upset. After two straight wins, complacency kicks in for Indiana and after two straight losses, a sence of urgency for the home side. The Pacers just managed a 101-95 win over the 76ers last time out, but it certainly wasn't pretty. In fact note that Indiana has lost six of its last 11 overall. Note as well that the home team won and covered in each game in this series last year. The Wolves are coming off a 117-104 loss at home to OKC. Both teams are playing without key players for this series (Victor Oladipo and Karl Anthony Townes), but I think this one sets up great for the Wolves situationally.

The pick: Note as well that the Pacers are already a poor 3-5 ATS this year after covering in three of their last four against the spread, while Minnesota is a sharp 8-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. I'm banking on the home court advantage being sigificant tonight. This one means more to Minnesota.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The set-up: I think 14-2 Duquesne, which enters having won four straight, will get caught "looking past" the lowly 6-9 Fordham Rams. The Dukes most recently held on for a 66-61 win over George Washington. The Rams though have lost four of their last five and they've yet to get a conference victory. Most recently they fell 64-44 to St. Bonaventure. Fordham has two players averaging in double figures and Duquesne has three. On paper this one favors the Dukes, but with a more difficult 10-5 opponent in the Rhode Island Rams up next, I do indeed belive the home side gets caught looking ahead here as well.  

The pick: The Rams are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five after scoring 65 points or less in four straight games, while the Dukes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest (including only 1-2 ATS this season.) I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter."

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Fordham.

The set-up: I'm expecting a lower-scoring battle between the 17-0 SDSU Aztecs and the 5-11 Fresno State Bulldogs. The Bulldog and Aztecs have already played once this season and SDSU won by nine points at home on January 1st. Overall SDSU averages 75.9 PPG, but it's been getting the job done most nights with its amazing defense, which allows just 57 PPG. So that's not the greatest news for Fresno State today, which enters on a four-game losing streak and which averages only 69.6 PPG. The Bulldogs though have been fantastic defensively, allowing just 66.7 PPG. 

The pick: Note as well that SDSU has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 after two straight covers as a double-digit favorite, while Fresno State has seen the total dip below the number in three of its last four as a home dog. Everything points to a lower-scoring war between these conference foes.

10* CONF-TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER SDSU/Fresno State.

The set-up: Two struggling teams collide on Tuesday night and in my opinion, this one has "offensive fireworks" written ALL over it. Phoenix enters having won two straight, most recently getting 25 points from Kelly Oubre Jr in a victory over the Hornets. Phoenix is only 16-23, but it's only 1.5 games back for eighth spot in the West. The Suns are talented offensively and they actually lead the league in assists. The issue has been on the defensive end, which clearly doesn't bode well heading to ATL and facing the hungry and high-scoring Hawks. ATL won't be lacking for motivation here either, as it's on a four-game losing streak. Whether Trae Young plays or not tonight, I'm expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to exploit this weak Suns' defense. 

The pick: Note as well that Phoenix has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten non-conference games, while Atlanta has seen the total soar above the posted number in nine of 14 in the same position. Considering the strong situational and trend based factors listed above, I do indeed think this number is low. 

10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Suns/Hawks.

The set-up: After winning nine of their last ten, the Leafs come in razor focussed after three straight losses. The Devils are still in last place in the Metropolitan, but they've been playing a lot better of late, including a highly satisfying 3-1 win over the Lightning last time out. Previous to that they beat the Pens. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here? 

The pick: Toronto is 10-5 (+4.3 units) in its last 15 after three or more consecutive losses, while New Jersey is just 12-19 (-2 units) this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and only 3-4 (-1.1 units) this season after a win by two goals or more. I expect Toronto to win. And win big! Lay the 1.5 goals for the plus money return in this one.

10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Toronto Maple Leafs PUCK-LINE.

The set-up: If you're watching and wagering on this game, then you know the story lines and strengths/weaknesses of each team. LSU has been an unstoppable juggernaut this year, but note that the underdog has covered in six straight National Championship Games. The defending champs can draw from experience here as well. LSU and Joe Burrow have been the "talk of the town," but this Clemson offense and defense has the talent (and as mentioned above, the experience in "the big game!") to not only cover this game, but to obviously win outright as well. We don't have to look further than some of the NFL upsets or near upsets etc. The Titans are a well coached team which has game-planned perfectly to advance to the Conference Championships. 

The pick: LSU has had some "close calls" as well this season (Texas, Auburn and Alabama.) On top of the underdog covering in six straight Nat Champ Games, note as well that Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing on two weeks rest, while LSU is 0-4 ATS this year after posting 450 yards or more of offense in its prevoius game. I think Dabo Swinney still has something up his sleeve. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson.

The set-up: The Bruins have won three straight after beating the Isles in New York 3-2 in OT to open their road trip. I think this sets up a letdown spot for the B's though. Boston will be contending for the Cup for sure at the end and it comes in averaging 3.35 GPG and allowing 2.46. The Flyers got the better of the Capitals 3-2 to open their three-game stand, but they're out to bounce back after falling 1-0 to Tampa in their most recent outing. Philadelphis is 23-16--6 overall this year, but an outstanding 14-3-4 at home. 

The pick: Note as well that Boston is a devastatingly poor 4-6 (-4 units) this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Philly is 4-1 (+3.2 units) in its last five after getting shutout at home in its previous contest. Great value on the much "hungrier" home side in this one.

10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Flyers.

The set-up: The Suns are hungry for another victory here. They've also already lost two of three in the season series to the Hornets. Charlotte continues to struggle, but it looks to return to form here after falling to Utah last time out. Terry Rozier had 23 points in the latest setback. Phoenix got out to a great start to the year, but it's taken a major step back over the last three weeks. It held on for a lower-scoring win over the Magic last time out led by 24 points by Devin Booker. 

The pick: While inconsistency on the offensive end has cost these teams some games this year, it's been their complete lack of defense which has been the main issue. Note that these two clubs combine to allow an average of 225.6 PPG. I'm expecting each of these teams to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Hornets/Suns.

The set-up: Is Russel Wilson a "better" QB than Aaron Rodgers right now? Probably. But not by much. Wilson managed to get the most out of his injured team and they took advantage of the fact that Philly' QB Carson Wentz got knocked out early with an injury. The Hawks looked tired now in my opinion. Note that last week they committed 11 penalties for 114 yards. WR DK Metcalf was a bright spot though with 160 receiving yards. I like Rodgers here at home and with a week off to prepare. The Green Bay furture Hall of Famer isn't the same player he used to be, but this is a spot in which I think he can take full advantage of. Note that Green Bay was sixth in red zone efficiency this year.

The pick: Additionally note that the Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. teams with winning records and 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff contests, while the Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. When you add it all up, I think this one has blowout from start to finish written all over it. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: The Pens are 7-2-1 in their last ten, but after winning back to back road games, I think the visiting side has a letdown here. Conversely, the Coyotes are in full on bounce back mode. They're just 5-5 in their last ten and they enter off back to back losses. Pittsburgh has been playing great over the last month, but note that it's still ranked just 15th in the league in goals allowed per game when on the road. And note that Arizona is ranked seventh in the NHL in goals allowed per game when at home. 

The pick: Arizona is also 8-2 (+5.9 units) this year after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game. I think the Pens finally have that road letdown vs. this now extremely focussed home side. 

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Arizona Coyotes.

The set-up: 15-3 Wright STate is at 6-12 Illinois Chicago and I believe that the under the radar home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Raiders enter off an 80-64 win over IUPUI, while UIC fell 68-52 to UNK last time out. Revenge also comes into play here after Wright State took both games in this serires last year. Overall Wright State averages 81.1 PPG and it allows 72.2. The Flames average 65.4 PPG and they allow 72.2. 

The pick: Wright State though has responded well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS In its last nine home games following a loss in which it posted 55 points or less in. Conversely, Wright State is already a poor 1-4 ATS this season after playing a road game. Expect the Flames to lay everything on the line and while I wouldn't be completely shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Illinois Chicago. 

The set-up: Houston advanced after beating the Bills 22-19 last weekend. The Texans looked down and out in that one early with a 16-0 deficit, but the team turned up the pressure on the defensive side and then Deshaun Watson and the offense managed to get the job done. Watson had 247 passing yards and one TD. Clearly the last thing the Texans can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with Patrick Mahomes and company. Note that Kansas City’s rush defense ranked sixth in the league over the last three games of the season, allowing 87 rush yards per game. KC's pass defense was also No. 8 overall in the NFL this season. 

The pick: It's supposed to be cold and windy today, so with each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run game and also taking into account the improved play on the defensive end from each team, I think this afternoon's contest sets up as a lower-scoring battle. Play the under.

10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Texans/Chiefs.

The set-up: I like Tennessee to keep this one closer than expected. Derrick Henry is a beast and behind the improved play of QB Ryan Tannehill, the Titans won a very tricky game at Foxborough last weekend. Beating Bill Bellichick on his own field and after such a tragic loss in Week 17 as well is very impressive in my books. The Titans are playing really good football right now in all three phases. They won't be intimidated whatsoever after posting the Playoff win in New England vs. the defending champs either. And will "rest" lead to "rust" for LaMar Jackson and company? Jackson will have to carry the load here with a minor injury to RB Mark Ingram. This is significant in my opinion. 

The pick: Tennessee is a sharp 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Baltimore is a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 7 to 14 points range, including 0-2 ATS this season. I'm not calling for an outright, but all signs point to this one once again coming down to the wire.

10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Tennessee Titans.

The set-up: The Huskies are just 1-2 in conference play and they're coming off a listless 61-55 road loss to Stanford. Cal is 1-1 in league play so far and it'll be looking to build off a win over WSU in its latest action, a victory which snapped a four-game losing streak. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, but neither will be lacking for motivation in this big Pac 12 matchup on Friday night. Washington averages 72.4 PPG and the Bears average 64.9. Both teams are mediocre at best on the defensive side though and each is desperate for a victory. I believe from a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." 

The pick: Note as well that Washington has seen the total soar over the number in 11 of its last 17 road games after a loss in which it scored 55 points or less in, while Cal has seen the total go over the number in seven of its lat ten home games following a conference SU/ATS victory. Everything points to a high-scoring "over."

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Washington/Cal.

The set-up: Both teams have done poorly this year. But Montreal is set up nicely here to take this game vs. bottom feeders. The Habs are in fact 10-9-3 on the road this season, but they won't be lacking for motivation after going just 1-8-1 in their last ten. The Sens are 11-7-2 at home overall this season, but they're only 2-6-1 in their last ten overall. Ottawa also enters off a tough 3-2 road loss in Detroit just last night. Situationally as I stated above, this one does indeed set up well for the hungry Habs in my opinion. 

The pick: I believe the Sens come in with "heavy legs" after their close call in Detroit last night. Lay the price with confidence.

10* PRICE IS RIGHT on the Montreal Canadiens.

The set-up: I think the 10-7 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are going to have their hands full today with the 6-11 UT Arlington Mavericks. The Chanticleers are averaging over 80 PPG in the early going, but they enter off a poor 78-66 loss to Texas State. A lot of their early numbers are skewed because of the level of competition. UTA on the other hand has struggled for most of the season with consistency, but it comes in playing its best basketball of the season and off its biggest win thus far, outlasting App State 66-56. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but CC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games following a loss in which it allowed 75 points or more inw, while UTA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten home games after a SU win in which it held its opponent to 59 points or less in. This one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on UT Arlington.

The set-up: This is a revenge game for the Avs. They've also lost two straight, so they definitely won't be taking anything for granted here. The Pens are 10-7-2 on the road this season and the Avs are 11-7-2 at home. Pittsburgh ranks fourth on the road offensively and 15th defensively. Colorado ranks second in the league offensively when at home and 28th defensively. Clearly on most nights that type of defensive performance isn't going to get the job done, but after back-to-back setbacks and with revenge on their minds, I believe the Avs risk life and limb tonight getting into shooting and passing lanes in an attempt to get off the schneid. 

The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh is a poor 8-9 (-4.7 units) in its last 17 after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Colorado is 10-3 (+7.6 units) this season after allowing four or more goals. I'm laying the price and expecting a decisive victory.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Colorado Avalanche.

The set-up: Orlando is a much better home team than on the road. The Magic soundly hammered the Suns at home earlier in the season and that total went well above the number. At 18-20 overall, clearly the Magic won't be lacking for motivation here. And neither will Phoenix. The Suns are now fully healthy, but they're still struggling to find the same early season chemistry that they had. Off a double-digit home loss, Phoenix will also be looking to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to avenge the earlier loss and to get off the schneid overall. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up fantastically as a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Orlando has seen the total soar over in seven of its last ten as a road underdog, while Phoenix has seen the total go over in eight of its last ten as a home favorite. The stage is set for an explosive offensive affair in this one.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Magic/Suns.

The set-up: I think the 2-7 Iona Gaels come in under the radar here and keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. 8-5 Rider. Iona came into this season having won four straight MAAC championships, but it enters this contest having losgin five in a row. The Gaels are 2-5 on the road this season. Coach Tim Cluess has his work cut out for him if he wants to avoid his first losing campaign as boss since he took over ten years ago. Rider has been the better team "on paper" so far this year, but it comes in off its first conference loss (a poor 80-61 setback to Quinnipiac) and I believe it's primed for another letdown here vs. this unbelievably hungry defending league champion. 

The pick: Note as well that the Gaels are 4-1 ATS in their last five after faling to cover six or seven of their last eigth vs. the spread, while Riders is a poor 0-3 ATS this season already following a conference game. I think the "hungrier" team will at the very least, take this one down to the final moments. Grab the points.

10* UNDERDOG ELITE OF THE ELITE on Iona.

The set-up: Montreal won't be lacking for motivation here after going just 2-7-1 in its last ten. The Oilers are 5-4-1 in their last ten. The Oilers average 2.83 GPG and it's defense has been shaky. The Habs are ranked 24th on the defensive end, but after two straight losses I believe they offer great value here to bounce back in front of the home town crowd. Overall the Habs average a respectable 3.24 GPG at home. 

The pick: Edmonton though has definitely struggled mightily in this spot for bettors all season, going a poor 9-15 (-7.7 units) vs. clubs with losing records and 2-4 (-2.3 units) after playing three straight road games. The Habs on the other hand are 9-6 (+3.5 units) this year in non-conference games. I think the "hungrier" team gets the job done tonight. Lay the reasonable price.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Montreal Canadiens.

The set-up: Liberty returns home to play in front of the home town crowd for the first time in 38 days. This is the Flames first conference home game and I expect them to push the pace from start to finish. The Flames get the job done on the defensive end by allowing only 51.8 PPG, but I believe tonight's contest we'll see the home side open things up. North Alabama enters off an 81-65 loss at home to North Florida, which would go on to expose the Lions perimeter defensive play by nailing 13 3-pointers. 

The pick: Note as well that North Alabama has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last 11 road games following a home loss in which it allowed 80 or more points in, while Liberty has seen the total soar over in 15 of its last 24 after a three games or longer road-trip. This number is a tad low in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER North Alabama/Liberty.

The set-up: Am I predicting that the 5-11 Wyoming Cowboys are going to upset the 15-0 SDSU Aztecs SU tonight? I'm not. But I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. SDSU is no joke, winning big road games at BYU and Utah State. Most recently the Aztecs faced Utah State on the road and won by a score of 77-68. Overall SDSU averages 75.7 PG and it allows 56.8. The Cowboys come in off a 72-61 loss at Colorado State. Overall Wyoming averages 60.4 PPG and it allows 66.4. 

The pick: I'll point out though that the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing the role of underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while SDSU is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record. I think SDSU wins this game, but I don't think it'll cover this large spread again on the road and in this difficult venue. Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Wyoming.

The set-up: The Raptors come in off a heart-breaking last second loss to Portland in which Carmelo Anthony hit the winning shot with just one second remaining. After that low-scoring setback and playing the second game of the back to back on the road, I think the visitors come out flat footed here. The Hornets won two in a row before a double-digit setback to the Pacers last time out. This is going to be a matchup of backcourts tonight. With the offense running through the point, I think from a situational stand point this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: Note as well that Toronto has already seen the total go under the number in five of six this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while Charlotte has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of 12 this season as a home dog of six points or less. The situation and the numbers/trends all point to the under as the correct call in this one.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Raptors/Hornets.

The set-up: The Knicks are playing better of late, but after falling 135-132 to the Clippers last time out, I believe they predictably stumble here vs. this defensive minded Lakers team. LA will look to control the pace of this one and take the Knicks out of this contest mentally early. The Lakers have won five in a row since an X-Mas Day loss, most recently crushing the Pistons 106-99. 

The pick: These two offenses combine to average only 217.5 PPG. The two defenses are holding opponents to a combined 217.4 PPG as well. The Lakers had 20 blocks in their win over the Pistons. Expect a slower-paced, lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done. 

10* play on the UNDER Knicks/Lakers.

The set-up: I think the Pens offer great value to upset the Knights at home here. Pittsburgh comes in having lost two of its last three, so it won't be lacking for motivation here. Despite that the Pens still average the seventh most goals in the league this season. Las Vegas on the other is poised for a letdown here in my opinion after winning four in a row. Good news for Pittsburgh tonight is that Matt Murray will start in net and he's 12-6-4 with a 2.92 GAA and it's won his last two starts. The Golden Knights counter with Marc Andre Fleury who is 18-8-3, but note that in his last two wins the Knights have allowed four goals in each. 

The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh is 14-7 (+5.5 units) this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 9-4 (+5.2 units) after allowing four goals or more in its previous outing, while Las Vegas is just 8-9 (-3.2 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. 

10* play on the Penguins.

The set-up: Valpo is 8-7 and Southern Illinois is 7-8. This is a revenge game for the Salukies, as Valparaiso has won three of the last four between the clubs, including 55-52 last year. Both teams come in off victories, but I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. Valpo though looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its upset OT win over Evansville last time out. The Salukis cruised to a 67-55 win over Illinois State last time out and four starters put up double-digit in points. I believe the home side carries that momentum over here. 

The pick: Valpo is also a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, while SIU is already 6-1 ATS at home this season. Lay the points, expect a rout.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Illinois.

The set-up: The Thunder enter off a loss in Philadelphia. The Nets come in off a loss to Orlando just last night as well. In this contest where both team's played just last night, I believe that the home court advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor once it's all said and done. OKC's recent run came to a crashing halt last night, while Brooklyn has now lost six in a row. I believe that Spencer Dinwiddie and company lay everything on the line here to get off the schneid and to take advantage of this particular matchup. 

The pick: Note as well that the Thunder are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine Eastern road swings in the second game of the back to back and coming off a loss in the first, while the Nets are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as a home underdog of six points or less. I'm grabbing the points, but expecting an outright.

10* play on the NETS.

The set-up: Vancouver has won seven in a row. Tampa has also won seven in a row. Two teams enter on a big win streak and only one will leave with its eighth straight victory. Whether the Canucks are able to pull off the big upset again, or if Tampa takes care of business at home as a big favorite, I'm ultimately expecting this to be more of a defensive goaltenders battle, rather than a wide-open, high-scoring shootout. For one, each side has the luxury right now of not having to panic. Each can sit back and wait for the other to make the first mistake. Each has been receiving exceptional goaltending as well. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the under. 

The pick: Also note that Vancouver's already seen the total go under in 11 of 17 non-conference games this year, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go under in four of its last five after playing three straight road games. Taking all of the above factors into account, I'm banking on this one staying under the number once it's all said and done.

10* play UNDER Canucks/Lightning.

The set-up: I'm expecting a shootout here between these two hungry clubs. The Blue Jackets are 19-23 and the Kings are 17-26. On paper, both teams have terrible offenses. That's the reason why this total is as low as it is. But I think that the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this contest will help in pushing this total over the number sooner, rather than later.  The Jackets are desperate for a win and facing LA goaltender Jon Quick, who has conceded three goals in each of his last two starts is just what the doctor ordered to get their offense untracked.

The pick: Note as well that Columbus has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 11 road games after playing to the "under" in five or more straight contests, while LA has seen the total go over in interestingly seven of its last ten after allowing four goals or more. I believe this faster paced contest will easily eclipse the posted total.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the Jackets/Kings OVER.

The set-up: A coule of bottom feeders go head to head here and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Golden State comes to town having lost four straight, while the Kings enter having lost nine of their last ten. Sacramento won the first game of the year between the clubs 100-79 and when the smoke does finally clear on this one at the end of the night, I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. The Warriors are once again without D'Angelo Russell and they enter averaging 104.5 PPG and conceding 112.2. THe Kings enter off a tough 117-115 home loss to New Orleans. Overall the Kings average 107.7 PPG and allow 110.8. 

The pick: It's important to note though in my opinion that GS has seen the total go under the number in 16 of 22 already this year vs. clubs with losing records, while Sacramento has seen the total go under the number in seven of nine as a home underdog. Considering the situational factors and these strong O/U ATS trends, I'm definitely banking on a lower-scoring under here.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Warriors/Kings.

The set-up: It's 8-5 Miami Ohio vs. 10-3 Louisiana Lafayette in the Lending Tree Bowl and in my opinion, this one has ATS blowout written all over it. Despite ranking 77th in the KemPom power rankings, Miami Ohio still made it to this bowl game. Lafayette ranks 11th in the KenPom rankings (and note that two of the Cajuns losses this year came from App State by a combined 17 points.) The RedHawks had an easy schedule this year and QB Brett Gabbert finished with an unimpressive 11:8 TD:INT. The Cajuns average 38.8 PPG, led by QB Levi Lewis who had a 24:4 TD:INT. 

The pick: Note that the RedHawks are just 2-10 ATS in their last non-conference games, while Louisiana Lafayette is already 3-1 ATS this season as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. Look for the high-powered Cajuns to dominate throughout all three phases and lay the points.

10* BLOWOUT on UL Lafayette.

The set-up: The Suns come in off a 120-112 win over New York. They play with revenge here after falling to Memphis earlier in the year. This is an important stretch for the Suns, as they play the Grizzlies today, followed by very winnable games vs. the Kings, Magic, Hornets, Hawks and Knicks. I think the Suns lay the hammer down here from start to finish as they push hard over this stretch vs. this "lesser" competition. And for the Grizzlies? They come in off a highly satisfying 140-114 blowout road victory over the Clippers just last night! 

The pick: Note as well that Memphis is just 36-45 ATS in its last 81 vs. teams with losing records, while Phoenix is already 17-5 ATS this year in revening a loss vs. an opponent. This one has home side blowout written all over it in my opinion. Lay the points.

10* REVENGE ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Phoenix Suns.

The set-up: The Eagles finished 9-7, while the Hawks ended up 11-5. Seattle almost knocked off the 49ers at home in Week 17, but it just wasn't to be. The Eagles had to sweep their final four games to punch their ticket, including a win over the Giants in Week 17. The Hawks will be without the services of WR Jaron Brown, who suffered a torn MCL in the loss to San Fran. That's going to put added pressure on QB Russell Wilson to carry the load and manage the game today. He'll also be leaning heavily on his run game, as Marshawn Lynch looked stronger as the game progressed in his first action in a while vs. the 49ers. The Eagles are also dealing with injury to RB Miles Sanders, who is listed as questionable here. Carson Wentz may have TE Zach Ertz back in the line-up today, but like his counterpart, the veteran pivot will have to shoulder the responsibility today if his team is going to win this one. Both teams are going to rely on their run game to alleviate that pressure from their QB's though. Each is banged up on the offensive side as well. Ultimately though I feel that Wilson's experience and the Seahawks depth across the board will win the day between these two injured teams. 

The pick: Additionally note that Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while Philly is only 3-4 ATS at home this season and just 3-4 ATS when playing the role of underdog. For all the reasons listed above, I'm backing Seattle.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Seahawks.

The set-up: I think 12-2 Dayton gets caught "looking past" lowly 3-10 St. Joe's today. Most recently Dayton got the better of La Salle 84-58. The Flyers are one of the highest scoring teams in the nation and it's difficult to say anything negative about them. I simply feel that they come in complacent here, while I believe the Hawks risk life and limb here to try and pull off the upset. Keep your eyes on Ryan Daly for the home side, he's the only Hawk to average in double digits in scoring this year. 

The pick: Additionally note that Dayton is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of 16.5 points or higher on the tail of a three games or more unbeaten streak, while St. Joe's is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games as an underdog in the 15.5 to 21.5 points range. I think the hungry home side keeps this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on St. Joseph's.  

The set-up: The Pelicans lost by ten in LA just last night and I think they'll have a predictable letdown in energy levels here in the second game of the back to back. The Kings had been playing to a series of "unders," before a big 128-123 win at home over the Grizzlies on Thursday. But I think this team is going to once again take a step back and be drawn into a slower-paced affair vs. New Orleans tonight. From a situational stand point, I absolutely think this one sets up as a low-scoring "under." 

The pick: But note as well that New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 this year vs. clubs with losing records, while Sacramento has seen the total dip under in eight of 11 already this season after allowing 115 points or more in its previous outing. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Pelicans/Kings.

The set-up: Tom Brady and the Patriots have been terrible offensively over the last month or so, but they have a big opportunity to turn things around in the Wild Card. Do I think that Tennessee has a chance to steal this game in Foxborough? Of course I do, just look at what Miami did last weekend. The Patriots defense looks bad and so does it offense. The Titans won't be waiting for the home side to make the first mistake. They'll be looking to get an early score and then to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. New England isn't going to win another Super Bowl either if it can't get its offense producing. From a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: But note as well that the Titans have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 12 as an underdog int he 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including in three of four this year,) while the Pats have seen the total go over in three of their last four following a SU home loss. Look for this total to creep over this low number sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Titans/Pats.

The set-up: I think the defending champs slow the pace of this one down as they try to grind out a road victory in this difficult venue. Las Vegas comes in having won three straight (all at home), while the Blues enter having lost two straight. The Blues will be especially motivated here to return to their normal form after an embarrassing 7-3 loss in Denver last time out. Note that St. Louis netminder Jake Allen is 2-0-2 wvs. Vegas with a 2.69 GAA, while Jordan Binnington is 2-0-0 with a 1.50 GAA vs. the Knights in his career. Note that Knights' goalie Marc Andre Fleury is 5-8-2 with a 2.70 GAA vs. the Blues in his career. 

The pick: Seven of St. Louis' last nine vs. the Pacific have fallen under the number and I look for that strong trend to continue here as the Blues desperately try to control the tempo and get back into the winners circle. After a couple of high-scoring victories, I think the Knights are forced into playing the Blues' style tonight. This number is high.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Blues/Knights.

The set-up: I think 5-10 Cleveland State brings everything it has this afternoon to try and pull off this upset vs. 9-6 Youngstown State. This is the home opener for Cleveland State as far as Confernece play is concerned, and that's always a big deal. Cleveland State opened up league action by splitting on the road vs. UIC and IUPUI. The Vikings' record though is more indicative of the level of competition they had to play in non-conference action, as those opponents had a combined record of 95-62. Off an 82-80 win over IUPUI, I like Cleveland State to keep the momentum rolling hee at home. 

The pick: And if recent history is any precedence, then the Vikings have to be loving their chances here, as they took both games vs. Youngstown State last season. I'm throwing the revenge factor out the window. That was last year and the Vikings can't afford to take the foot off the gas now after the slow start. The outright is indeed possible in my opinion, but in the end I'll grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on Cleveland State.

The set-up: Tulane is 6-6 and I think it'll give 7-5 Southern Miss everything it can handle today. Both teams backed their way into this Bowl game and each has had plenty of time off to prepare. Tulane's best win of the year came against Houston, 38-31 this season. Overall the Green Wave average 455.2 YPG, which ranks 24th nationally. Tulane isn't terrible defensively either, allowing 378.9 YPG. The Golden Eagles also had some big wins, including a road victory over Troy. Back-to-back losses to end the year didn't help though, falling 28-10 to WKU and 34-17 to FAU. 

The pick: Tulane though is already 5-1 ATS this year as a favorite, while Southern Miss is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog. The Wave have a healthier team on the field today and I think that matters. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout.

10* BLOWOUT on Tulane.

The set-up:

The pick:

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The set-up:

The pick:

10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Oakland.

The set-up: Ohio finished 6-6 and Nevada was 7-5. The Bobcats needed to win their last two games to become eligible. Ohio put up 66 and 52 points over its final two games, but I expect a more conservative score here once it's all said and done. The Bobcats rely on their run game on offense, one which actually ranks 22nd in the country by averaging 216.5 YPG. The Wolfpack had their three-game win streak snapped with a loss in their finale. QB Carson Strong was a bright spot in defeat, throwing for 351 yards, one TD and no INT's. 

The pick: Ohio's defense also improve down the stretch and that unit is going to be tested throughout by the powerful run game of Nevada. Additionally note that Ohio has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after two straight wins by 21 or more points, while Nevada has seen the total dip below in 12 of its last 18 as an underdog. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a "run and gun shootout." This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Ohio/Nevada.

The set-up: The Grizz come in off a 117-104 win over Charlotte. Memphis is going to have its hands full here vs. a hungry Kings team which has lost eight straight. The Kings are struggling offensively right now though, as they come in off a terrible 105-87 loss to the Clippers. The Kings have been decent defensively though, allowing only 108.2 PPG. 

The pick: From a situational stand point it sets up as more of a defensive, low-scoring game, but also note that Memphis has seen the total go under the number in eight of nine road games this season when the total is greater than or equal to 220, while Sacramento has seen the total go under in ten of 15 at home and in 13 of 20 when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent this season. This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* play on the UNDER Grizzlies/Kings.

The set-up: I lay chalk when I think the situation calls for it. I believe that the Flyers are worth laying the chalk here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Philly comes in off a 5-3 loss to LA, so it'll be hungry and focussed here after that hiccup. The Knights come in off a 5-2 win over the Ducks, but I think they'll get caught looking past their non-conference opponent today. 

The pick: The Flyers are 7-3 (+3.7 units) in their last ten after allowing four goals or more in their previous contest, while the Golden Knights are just 6-8 (-5.8 units) this season in non-conference contests. I think Las Vegas is set up for the letdown here, but as mentioned above, in a contest which I envision being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals.

10* NON-CONF PUCK-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Philadelphia Flyers.

The set-up: The Raptors have played better than most thought they would this year without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. Every night Toronto takes the court it has a target on its back as teams try to knock off the defending champs. Toronto is 3.5 games back of Miami and it comes to town without the services of key figures Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol. Miami beat Toronto 121-110 in OT back on December 3rd in the lone matchup this year and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards here at home. Toronto is off a 117-97 win over the Cavs, while Miami enters off a poor 123-105 loss to the lowly Wizards. 

The pick: Note that Toronto is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in South Beach, while Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last ten after a SU loss. Look for the Heat to play with passion from start to finish after their latest embarrassing effort as they look to kick this injured Raptors team from start to finish.

10* play on the HEAT.

The set-up: I'm not calling for an outright upset here. The 3-9 St. Joe's Hawks though won't be lacking for motivation today as they try to pull off the upset vs. the 10-3 Spiders. Richmond's early record has much to do with strength of schedule. The same can also be said of the Hawks. The Spiders though enter having lost two straight, falling 90-78 to Alabama and then getting crushed at home by Radford 73-58. St. Joes on the other hand comes in off a momentum building 84-69 victory over William and Mary. The Spiders average 76.3 PPG and the Hawks average 71.6. 

The pick: I think it sets up well for the hungry Hawks to keep this one close from a situational stand point, but also note that the Hawks have responded well in this spot from an ATS angle as well, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a dog. The Spiders on the other hand are a poor 6-10 ATS in their last 16 after a loss by ten points or more. I look for the Hawks to build off their latest performance and to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest.

10* UPSET SHOCKER BEST OF THE BEST on St. Joes.

The set-up: BC became bowl eligible after knocking off Pittsburgh in its regular season finale. Cincinnati was rolling along nicely until back-to-back losses to Memphis (losing in the regular season finale, as well as the Conference USA Championship game.)BC Head Coach Steve Addazio was let go, so that means that this one means a lot to interim coach Rich Gunnel. BC' QB Dennis Grosel stepped in admirably for Anthony Brown and I think he'll have his opportunities vs. this Bearcats' secondary which ranks 80th in the league vs. the pass. BC is going to have its hands full stopping Cincinnati's rush attack, which averages 198 YPG on the ground. QB Desmond Ridder had a week 17:9 TD:INT though. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that BC is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine as a dog in teh 3.5 to ten points range (including 5-0 ATS this year), while Cinncy is just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest. I'm grabbing the points.

10* BLOWOUT on Boston College.

The set-up: Baylor is 11-2 and Georgia is 11-2. The Bears are the fifth ranked team in the country and the Bulldogs are the seventh. The Bears average 35.2 PPG and they allow 19.3. Georgia was in the Sugar Bowl last year and it lost. The Bulldogs will be especially motivated tonight. Georgia averages 31.2 PPG and it allows only 12.5, but I think the defense is pushed to the brink here by this Bears' high-flying offensive attack. 

The pick: Note as well that Baylor has seen the total fly over the number in three of its last four after two weeks or more of rest, while Georgia has seen the total fly over in five of its last seven neutral site affairs when the total is set between 41.5 and 45. This number is a tad low in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Baylor/Georgia.

The set-up: Wyoming beat Nebraska Wesleyan 82-68 in its last outing, while Boise State got the better of CSU Northridge on Saturday, winning 103-72. Jake Hendricks had 21 points for the Cowboys in their latest win. I think the lowly Cowboys catch the Broncos complacent here. Boise State has won three straight and I do indeed expect it to get caught looking past its lowly opponent today. 

The pick: The numbers/trends support us as well, as note that Boise State is just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 off a home win by ten points or more, including only 1-3 ATS this year, while Wyoming is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a home victory. I like the improving visiting side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Wyoming.

The set-up: It's 9-3 Michigan vs. 10-2 Alabama. Michigan QB Shea Patterson finished with a 22:6 TD:INT. The Wolverines allow just 3.03 YPC on the defensive side. For the most part Michigan looked pretty good this year, but it did struggle against its elite opponents, which led to the overall disappointing record once it was all said and done.

The pick: Talk about disappointments, the fact that the Tide weren't in the playoff was viewed by many as a major mistake. A loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl was the final nail in the coffin to their hopes. That said, I still think that Mac Jones is going to have his opportunities here. Additionally note that Michigan is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a dog (including only 1-2 ATS this season,) while Bama is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in its previous outing. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama.

The set-up: I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Suns. Phoenix just broke its seven-game losing streak vs. the Kings and they now face a desperate Blazers team, which has lost three in a row and which will emabark on tough Western road swing after this contest. For all intents and purposes, this becomes a "must win" scenario for Phoenix. The Blazers defeated the Suns by only one point earlier in the year, so they definitely won't be looking past their opponent today either. 

The pick: Additionally note that Phoenix is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive losses. I'm laying the points and expecting the home side to risk life and limb from start to finish.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The set-up: Virginia lost to Clemson in the ACC Title game and finished 9-4, while Florida wasn't quite as good as Georgia in the SEC, but still finishing 10-2. The Cavs fell 62-17 to Clemson in the title game, but overall UVA has been solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 32.4 PPG and allowing 26.5. The Gators are averaging 33 PPG and allowing only 14.4. I think UVA is going to have difficulties moving the ball again vs. this Florida defense which is ranked among the best in the nation. 

The pick: Note as well that UVA has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a two weeks or longer lay off, while Florida has seen the total go under in four of its last five vs. teams with winning records. Florida went over the number just four times this year and I don't expect that strong trend to change tonight. Play the under. 

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER UVA/Florida.