All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
06-05-18 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set up: St. Louis would take five of seven from Miami last year. The Marlins come in having lost seven straight, while the Cardinals remain competitive, having gone 31-25 so far this season and 6-3 in their last nine. The pitching match-up: Jose Urena gets the call for the Marlins and he’s so far 0-7 with a 4.41 ERA. Urena has been unlucky so far this year though, as his team continues to struggle at the plate. Despite his pedestrian ERA, note that he does own a sharp 1.17 WHIP. Urena has had success at Busch Stadium as well, going 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA. The Cards go with Carlos Martinez, who returns from a stint on the disabled list with a 3-2, 1.62 ERA record. Martinez owns a 1.08 WHIP over eight starts this season and he’s 1-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in five starts at home. The pick: Clearly Urena has thrown well enough of late to earn a victory, unfortunately for the hard-throwing right-hander his team has had difficulty giving him any sort of offensive support whatsoever. Take it for what you will, but Miami has already seen the total go under the number in 22 of 40 this year against clubs with winning records, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in 15 of 20 against teams with losing records. Expect these two starters to battle and for this total to stay under once it’s all said and done. |
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06-05-18 | A's -132 v. Rangers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set up: This is the opener of a three-game set between AL West foes. Oakland is hovering right around the .500 mark so far, sitting at fourth in the division. The A’s are 6.5 games behind the Mariners, but seven games up on these very Rangers. The pitching match-up: Oakland goes with Sean Manaea, who is 5-6 with a 3.60 ERA to this point. Manaea most recently gave up four runs off four hits with one walks and three K’s over five innings in a setback to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. It wasn’t his best outing, but Manaea still managed to induce 11 swinging strikes over 95 pitches and he’d walk just one batter or less for the eighth time in his last 12 trips to the hill. Manaea has to be feeling confident here as he’s 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA on the road this season. Matt Moore gets the call for the Rangers and he’s just 1-5 with a brutal 7.85 ERA. Moore was lucky to earn a no-decision in his last outing as he’d give up five runs off eight hits and two walks over 5.1 innings to the Mariners on Wednesday. Moore can’t be feeling terribly confident here either, as note that he’s 0-3 with a 7.83 ERA at home this year. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Oakland is already 2-1 this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Texas is just 5-7 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. No need to overthink this one gentlemen. In this important early season series, Manaea is the correct call in this particular matchup. |
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06-05-18 | Orioles v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set up: This is the opener of a short two-game interleague matchup. The Orioles come in desperate as they’ve lost seven straight, not surprisingly owning the worst record in all of MLB. The Orioles’ bats come in rested though, as after losing 8-5 to the Yanks on Saturday, they were rained out on Sunday. The Mets have been terrible of late as well, coming into this contest having lost four straight and sitting at 27-30 overall, bad enough for fourth place in the NL East. Both of these line-ups though will be eager to “get off the schneid” as they each face a couple of confirmed “gas cans” on the mound tonight. The pitching match-up: Alex Cobb gets the call for the Orioles and he’s so far 1-7 with a 6.80 ERA. He also owns a horrible 1.81 WHIP and over his last three starts he’s been destroyed for nine earned runs spanning 10.2 innings of work. Additionally, opponents are hitting a whopping .356 off him. Jason Vargas gets the nod for the Mets and he’s 2-3 with an 8.53 ERA thus far. Vargas comes in off a a decent outing in his last start, giving up no runs over five innings. Despite that performance though, Vargas has still been rocked for 19 earned runs over 12.1 innings spanning his last three starts. The pick: No need to overanalyze this one. Both teams are desperate for a spark and each comes in well rested. These pitchers have been a couple of the worst in the league and when you combine those two factors, the correct move is the “over” in my opinion. |
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06-04-18 | Royals v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Royals lost their series with the A’s over the weekend and fell 5-1 in yesterday’s finale, while the Angels would hold on for a 3-1 win over the Rangers on Sunday. Both of tonight’s starters have struggled at times this season, but I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring under on Monday night. The pitchers: Kansas City goes with Danny Duffy (2-6, 5.71 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the season, allowing one run off four hits while striking out four over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Minnesota on Tuesday. As mentioned above, Duffy has admittedly struggled this so far this season (54:31 K/W over 64.2 innings), but take it for what you will, as note that he’s consistently been at his best in all “night” games with a 2-1, 3.72 ERA. LA goes with Nick Tropeano (3-3, 3.80) who comes in off a strong outing himself, holding the Tigers to two runs off seven hits with no walks and five strikeouts over six innings in the eventual win. Tropeano comes in on top form, having given up three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. I’ll point out as well that Tropeano has been solid in all night contests by posting a 3.90 ERA this season. The pick: KC has seen the total go under in 15 of 26 on the road already, while LA has seen the total dip below the number in 16 of 30 at home. I think there are enough significant factors pointing towards the “under” as the correct call in this one. |
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06-04-18 | Golden Knights +118 v. Capitals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the “over” in Game 3, and while that one would come up short, I firmly believe that Las Vegas will bounce back here after back-to-back defeats. Take it for what you will, but Las Vegas is 12-3 (+8.7 units) this season after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. The teams: I said before this series started that the victor would be whichever team’s goaltender played better. So far Braden Holtby has been better than his counterpart Marc-Andre Fleury. Holtby is 14-7 with a 2.13 GAA in the postseason. Washington is 33-18 at home this year, averaging 3.31 goals, while allowing 2.57. Alexander Ovechkin scored his 14th of the playoffs in the Game 3 victory, While Evgeny Kuzetsov notched his 12th. Fleury is 13-5 with a 1.95 GAA in the postseason. The Golden Knights are “road warriors,” coming into Game 4 having gone 28-22 on the road overall (including 6-3 in the playoffs) averaging 2.82 and conceding 2.82 in those games. Tomas Nosek would deliver with the lone goal for the Knights in Game 3 and he now has four in his last five games. The pick: Las Vegas has already re-written the NHL record books, but clearly the Golden Knights can’t be happy after back-to-back lacklustre efforts. The Capitals haven’t been to a Stanley Cup Final in 20 years and after holding on for the Game 2 victory, they’d ride the wave of emotion at home to another Game 3 win. But in my opinion, this one sets up as a classic letdown spot now for Washington. Bank on Fleury returning to form and for the Knights to gut out the victory. |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214.5 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set up: I had a play on the “over” in Game 1. We’d need a little luck to cash that ticket, as a bone head play by JR Smith of the Cavs near the end of regulation would then cause the game to head to an extra period, indeed pushing the total over the number once and for all. These teams had 112 points at half time, but they’d slow down in the second half and combine for 102. LeBron James had 51 points, eight boards and eight assists for the Cavaliers, while Stephen Curry had 29 points, six boards and nine assists for the Warriors. The break-down: It’s essentially “do or die” for the Cavaliers almost at this point, as a 2-0 hole to this sharp-shooting Warriors team will likely be just too much for “The King” to overcome. Cleveland won’t be going down without a fight obviously. Note that after hitting only 43.1 percent from the floor in the Indiana series, the Cavs are now shooting 46 percent entering Game 2 of the Finals. Note that Kevin Love was also a bright spot for Cleveland in Game 1 with 21 points and 13 boards. The Warriors could care less about any mental issues the Cavaliers are going through right now and they’ll be doing everything they can to kick Cleveland while its down. Golden State comes into Game 2 shooting 47.4 percent from the floor in the playoffs. Note that the Warriors hit 19 of 20 from the line in Game 1, while committing just eight turnovers. Klay Thompson was a stand out as well in the victory with 24 points, while Draymond Green added 13 points, 11 boards, nine assists, five steals and two blocks. The pick: I predict very little defense being played today by Cleveland as it’ll be forced to match pace with a Warriors offense that can “smell the blood in the water.” Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in 17 of 25 already this season after allowing 115 points or more. This number is a little low, play the over. |
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06-03-18 | Lynx v. Sparks -3 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The set up: The season is just underway, but the LA Sparks are already rolling. Minnesota is 2-4, while LA is 3-1. In this particular contest, I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as very real deciding factor once it’s all said and done. The teams: Both teams sport plenty of talent. Minnesota has Maya Moore, who is averaging 17.3 PPG, along with Sylvia Fowles (16.5) and Seimone Augustus (11.7). LA features Nneka Ogwumike who is averaging 20.3 points, while Chelsea Gray adds 18.5 and Odyssey Sims contributes 18.0. The pick: I don’t normally put a lot of stock on ATS trends, but in this case they are overwhelming. Note that the Lynx are 0-6 ATS overall this year and just 3-4 ATS in their last seven after a loss by ten points or more. LA on the other hand is 3-1 ATS overall, including 2-0 ATS as the favorite (and 42-32 ATS as the fav the last two years.) Also note that LA is a sharp 16-8 ATS in its last 24 when playing with three or more days rest. The Lynx are “due” to break out of their slump at some point, but I don’t foresee that happening against this rested and red hot Sparks team on the road. Lay the points. |
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06-03-18 | Rays v. Mariners -101 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The set up: I’m always on the look out for value in Major League Baseball and in this case, I think “The King” offers great value at home in this particular matchup. The pitching matchup-up: Tampa Bay goes with Blake Snell, who is so far 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA. Snell most recently gave up one run off two hits while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a victory over the A’s on Tuesday. Snell’s been great and it’s difficult to find too many faults, but I do think it’s important to note that while he owns a minuscule 0.86 ERA at home, his ERA raises to 4.01 on the road. The Mariners turn to Felix Hernandez, who is 5-4 with a 5.83 ERA. Hernandez comes in off an outing to forget on Tuesday, giving up five runs off six hits while striking out four over five innings in a setback to the Rangers on Tuesday. It wasn’t Hernandez’s best month, as he’d finish with a pedestrian 29:16 K/W over 33.2 innings in May. I will point out though that while his ERA is an atrocious 7.03 on the road, it’s a much more respectable 4.42 at home. The pick: Seattle is 12-8 this year against southpaws, while Tampa is just 18-19 (-2.7 units) against right-handed starters. I look for the Rays to stumble and I expect Hernandez to get back on track to open June. Play on the Mariners. |
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06-03-18 | Phillies v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
The set up: When I play a total in Major League Baseball, the primary factor I’m looking at is the starting pitchers. And in this particular contest, a couple of red hot hurlers collide on Sunday afternoon, making the “under” the correct O/U move in my opinion. The pitching match-up: The Phillies go with Jake Arrieta, who is so far 5-2 with a 2.16 ERA. Last year with the Cubs Arrieta was 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA. Most recently the right-hander would go seven shutout innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing six hits and two walks to go along with five strikeouts. Over his last two starts Arrieta has posted a 12:1 K/W and note he’d go on to finish the month of May with a minuscule 0.90 ERA spanning 30 innings of work. Derek Rodriguez has been named the starter for the Giants in this one, as he’s been cleared to play after taking a liner off his right leg in the first inning of his last start. Rodriguez threw a bullpen session on Friday and note that he was sharp in his time at Triple-A Sacramento by posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across 50.1 innings. The pick: Take it for what you will, but not only has Philadelphia seen the total go under the number in 17 of 26 this season in all games when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, but it’s also seen it go under in eight of 14 against southpaws (San Fran has seen the total go under the number in 18 of 33 vs. right-handed starters as well.) Look for these two starters to go deep into this one and play the under. |
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06-03-18 | Cubs -141 v. Mets | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
The set up: The Cubs and Mets were locked in a “pitchers duel” on Saturday night between Mike Montgomery and Jacob DeGrom, but I expect a decisive victory here for the visitors in this particular matchup. The pitching match-up: The Cubs go with veteran Jon Lester in this one and he’s so far 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA. Lester wasn’t at his best last Tuesday against the Pirates, but he still managed the victory despite giving up four runs over six innings. He’d also post six strikeouts. No need to overreact to one sub-par effort I don’t think, as it was the first time he’d allow more than two runs in an outing since April 25th. While his strikeout numbers aren’t the greatest (60 K’s over 69 innings), note that Lester comes into this one with a stellar 3-1, 3.48 ERA record on the road. The Mets go with Steven Matz, who is so far 2-3 with a 3.55 ERA. Matz left his last start early against the Braves with an injury to his middle finger on his left hand, but the southpaw has been given the green light to go in this one. Matz has been hit-or-miss this season and comes in with a poor 1-2, 5.40 ERA record at home. The pick: Matz has been “shaky” at best this year, especially at home. Has he in fact recovered from the finger injury that he sustained in his last start? Too many questions surrounding the leftie in my opinion. Lester though has been very consistent on the road and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. Play on Chicago. |
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06-02-18 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona had little problem dispatching the Marlins yesterday (9-1), and in my opinion, tonight’s contest could be even more lopsided. Arizona started the season on fire, but it’s come back down to Earth over the last three weeks. Yesterday’s blowout win is a sign of things to come in this series though in my opinion. Miami looked weak at the plate yesterday and I don’t think things will change facing Arizona’s ace on Saturday night. The pitchers: Miami turns to Caleb Smith, who is 4-5 with a 3.51 ERA. Smith is coming off back to back quality starts, allowing two earned runs over his last 13.5 innings of work. Smith has been a bright spot for the struggling Marlins this season, but I still think he’ll stumble here in this difficult venue. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to Zack Greinke, who is 3-4 with a 3.65 ERA. Most recently Greinke gave up two runs over six innings in an unfortunate loss to Oakland. Greinke though has been a complete “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler this year, going 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA on the road, compared to 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA at home. The pick: As mentioned above, the Marlins are struggling mightily at the plate, note that they’ve posted just 25 runs over the last seven days, ranking them 24th in the league in that span. Arizona is starting to show signs again and note that it’s 7-2 in its last nine after scoring ten or more runs in its previous outing. I think Greinke is the correct call here as I expect Miami to continue to struggle with its bats. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks. |
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06-02-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington hasn’t been to the Finals in 20 years, but it finally got over the hump by defeating its nemesis (Pittsburgh) and then posting a convincing seven-game series win over Tampa to advance. The Golden Knights of course are re-writing NHL history every night, advancing to the Cup Final in their very first year of existence. Las Vegas took Game 1 by a score of 6-4, before the Capitals then responded with 3-2 victory in Game 2. The goaltenders: The Knights turn to veteran Marc-Andre Fleury in net and he’s so far 13-4 with a 1.88 GAA in the playoffs. Washington sends Braden Holtby between the pipes and he’s 13-7 with a 2.19 GAA to this point. Other key figures: James Neal scored his fifth goal of the season for the Knights in Game 2 (the first of the contest), but Alexander Ovechkin quickly answered for the visitors with one himself, his 13th of the postseason. The pick: The Capitals come into this one averaging 3.48 goals per game in the playoffs, while allowing just 2.62. Vegas is averaging 3.06 goals in the postseason, while allowing 2.00. Whichever team’s goaltender plays better is likely going to win this series, but after the lower-scoring Game 2, I think the shift in venue will lead to a higher-scoring Game 3. And take it for what you will, but Vegas has seen the total go over the number in all seven games this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. Get ready for a lot of “red lights” in this one and play the over. |
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06-02-18 | Blue Jays -135 v. Tigers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jays come in off a 5-2 series opening loss yesterday, as Jaime Garcia would fall behind early and he’d never be able to recover. With its ace heading to the mound today though, I think that Toronto is going to bounce back. The Jays were just swept by the Red Sox as well, so they’ll definitely be eager to back into the winners circle here. Detroit took two of three from the Angels and I think it’s now poised for a letdown after yesterday’s victory. The pitchers: Toronto turns to JA Happ who is 7-3 with a 3.84 ERA. Happ has posted three-straight victories, most recently he’d come out on top of the Phillies by holding them to three runs over seven innings of work. Over his last three starts he’s posted a sharp 23:5 K/W, while not allowing any home runs. Detroit hands the ball to Matt Boyd who is 3-4 with a 3.00 ERA. Boyd comes in off a win agains the Angels, allowing one run off two hits. Boyd though would need 102 total pitches to get through just five innings of work. The pick: Toronto is dealing with significant injuries right now, most notably to slugger Josh Donaldson. Detroit also has injury issues though, including to OF Leonys Martin (hamstring) and third baseman Jeimer Candelario (hand.) Take it for what you will, but the Jays are still 11-8 (+1.2 units) against clubs with losing records this season, while the Tigers are 14-17 (-1.3 units) against teams with losing records. As steady as Boyd has been this season, I’m still giving the nod to Happ in this matchup. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Toronto. |
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06-02-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh and St. Louis played to a lower-scoring under in the Pirates 4-0 victory yesterday and while this afternoon’s contest might have a few more runs than that, I still think that everything points to another “duel” on Saturday. The pitchers: The Pirates send Chad Kuhl to the mound and he’s 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 61.2 innings overall. In his most recent start Kuhl would hold the Cubs to one run over six innings. The Cardinals hand the ball to Luke Weaver, who is 3-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 58.1 innings of work. Weaver most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a loss to Milwaukee. Weaver has had varying success against the Pirates throughout his limited time, holding them to six runs over 17 innings of work. The pick: Pittsburgh is averaging 4.73 runs per game, while the Cards are averaging 4.39. Take it for what you will, but I still think its worthy to note that Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under the number in five of its last seven after shutting out an opponent, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in six of its last ten after getting shutout. Both Kuhl and Weaver have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others, but each comes in looking to take advantage of a couple line-ups that are currently struggling to produce. Play the under. |
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06-01-18 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: LA comes into this one in third place in its division after splitting its last ten games overall. The Angels are 30-26, which sets them 4.5 games back of the Astros. The Rangers have won six of their last ten overall, but they’ll be eager to get untracked here after falling 6-1 in Seattle last night, splitting their four-game series with the M’s. The pitching matchup: Texas sends out the venerable Bartolo Colon, who is so far 2-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 11 appearances, nine starts this year. Colon most recently gave up three runs off five hits in a no-decision against the Royals. Colon faced the Angels already this season and he’d go three innings of relief and allow one run. Last year though Colon gave up nine runs off seven hits over 2.5 innings against LA. LA will hand the ball to 21-year old Jaime Barria, who is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA over six starts this season. Barria’s peripherals though suggest that his early numbers are unsustainable, with a poor ground ball rate of 39.3 percent to go along with an 11.4 percent HR/FB rate. The pick: Barria could be in luck today though as LA has been mashing the ball of late, posting 11 home runs over its last seven games. Texas though is eager to get back on track here as well after last night’s poor effort. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring “slug-fest” written all over it. Play the over. |
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06-01-18 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pirates would let one slip away last night, falling to the Cardinals 10-8 in extra innings. Pittsburgh has lost seven of ten, including two of three to St. Louis just last week. St. Louis though hasn’t had much success either of late, as last night’s victory pushes the team to 5-5 out of its last ten. The pitching matchup: Jameson Taillon gets the call for Pittsburgh and he’s so far 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Taillon has enjoyed varied success agains the Cardinals, going 1-1 with a 4.45 ERA over six starts, which includes going 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in one outing at Busch Stadium. Miles Mikolas gets the nod for St. Louis and he’s 6-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over ten starts this season. That includes going 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in four home outings. Over 47 career games in the big leagues though Mikolas is 10-7 with a 4.17 ERA, including 8-5 with a 4.37 ERA as a starter. The pick: The Pirates come into this one ranked eighth overall in the league by averaging 4.67 RPG, while also ranked seventh in hitting at .257 average. The Cardinals are averaging 4.28 RPG (ranked 20th) and hitting .240 as a club. Are Mikolas’s early numbers sustainable? I think immediate regression is upcoming and I look for the hungry Pirates to take advantage and atone for yesterday’s late inning collapse. Lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in this one. |
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06-01-18 | Red Sox +111 v. Astros | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston fell 4-2 last night, as Lance McCullers got the better of Drew Pomeranz. The Red Sox were coming off a sweep of the Blue Jays before falling 4-2 to the defending champs last night in the opener of this three game set. After splitting a four-game series with the Tribe, the Astros would then lose two of three to the Yanks previous to their matchup with Boston. I think it’s worthy to note that the revenge factor does come into play here, as Houston has now won seven of the last nine in the series. The pitching matchup: Boston is hoping that Chris Sale (5-2, 2.76 ERA) can bounce back from an uncharacteristically poor outing against the Braves last Sunday, giving up six runs off five hits over just 4.1 innings of work. The silver lining behind the poor outing though was that he’d go on to fan eight opponents. Gerrit Cole (5-1, 2.05) most recently gave up three earned runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision against the Indians on Sunday. The pick: Last year Cole was 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA for the Pirates, while Chris Sale was 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA. Cole is putting together a career campaign, but his early gains this season simply do not jive with his career numbers and regression seems imminent. I like Sale to bounce back from his latest effort and to at the very least match his counterpart today. And in a scenario like that, I look for the hard-hitting and revenge-minded Red Sox to do the rest. Play on Boston. |
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06-01-18 | Nationals -134 v. Braves | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Tanner Roark and Sean Newcomb battled in a pitchers duel in the Braves lower-scoring 4-2 win yesterday. Washington though had won six in a row and eight of nine before yesterday’s setback and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the hard-hitting visiting side to bounce back here. And previous to last night’s victory, the Braves had split a series with the Mets, including a 4-1 loss at home on Wednesday. The pitching matchup: Stephen Strasburg gets the nod for Washington. Strasburg is 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Strasburg has been sharp of late, going 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with seven walks and 24 strikeouts over his last three starts. Strasburg has to be feeling confident here as he’s 11-9 with a 3.84 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, to go along with 44 walks compared to 183 strikeouts over 150 lifetime innings against ATL. And note that Strasburg has been even better at SunTrust Park by going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, three walks and and 21 strikeouts over 14.2 innings of work. Mike Foltynewicz is called upon to make this start by the home side. Foltynewicz is 5-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.283 WHIP. So far he’s posted 29 walks with 69 strikeouts over 60 innings. Over his last three starts Foltynewicz has gone 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP with ten walks and 22 strikeouts spanning 18 innings. However, Foltynewicz has struggled against the Nationals whenever he’s faced them, going 3-3 with a 4.89 ERA, 1.512 WHIP and 17 walks with 33 strikeouts over 42.1 innings of work. Also note that he’s been rather pedestrian at home throughout his career, going 6-6 with a 3.80 ERA, 1.458 WHIP and 39 walks with 101 strikeouts over 94.2 innings. The pick: Take it for what it is, but the Nationals are 20-12 (+4.4 units) in all night games this year, while Atlanta is just 18-19 (-1.2 units) in all night contests this season. The Braves have been better than advertised this year, but I’m not convinced that Foltynewicz has taken his play to “the next level.” Strasburg is firing on all cylinders though and I think he’s the correct call along with the revenge-minded Nationals. |
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05-31-18 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Marlins and Padres opened a four-game series on Memorial Day, entering as two last-place clubs (Miami in the NL East and San Diego in the NL West). The Marlins won 7-2 on Monday but the Padres have bounced back with consecutive wins, 9-5 on Tuesday and 3-2 last night, when they scored twice with one out in the ninth inning to pull out the one-run victory. The Marlins managed only three other hits in the loss (all singles), giving Miami its fifth loss in six contests (Marlins are now 20-35, 12 1/2 games out of first ). The 24-33 Padres are in last place but just 6 1/2 games out in the NL West and will now vie for the series win when they host the Marlins on Thursday for the finale of their four-game set. The pitching matchup: Lefty Wei-Yin Chen (1-2, 5.22 ERA) will get the nod for the Marlins, opposed by the Padres' Jordan Lyles (1-1, 3.83 ERA). Chen is coming off a strong outing against Washington on Saturday, however, he settled for a no-decision despite allowing just one run and three hits over a season-high 7 1/3 innings. He has yielded three runs over 17 innings in three starts (1.59 ERA) after being tagged for nine runs in three innings of a 13-4 road loss to the Chicago Cubs on May 9. Chen won his only career start against the Padres on June 13, 2016, even though he surrendered four runs in six innings at San Diego. Lyles has struggled since registering 10 strikeouts while allowing just one hit in 7 1/3 scoreless innings of a victory over Colorado on May 15, yielding nine runs over 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts. He was able to escape with no-decisions in both outings, despite giving up 14 hits and six walks (Sd actually won both contests). Lyles owns a 1-1 record and a ghastly 7.00 ERA in three starts and two relief appearances against Miami in his career. The pick: The highlight of Lyles' season was his second start on May 15 against the Rockies at Petco Park, when he was perfect for 7 1/3 innings, the second-longest perfect-game bid in franchise history. However, in his two starts since, Lyles has given up nine runs on 14 hits and six walks with eight strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings (7.84 ERA). What's more, Lyles will be making his sixth career appearance and fourth start against the Marlins on Thursday and he owns a 7.00 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP and a .292 opponents' batting average against Miami. Chen's numbers have improved drastically over his last three starts (see above) but I won't ignore his 5.22 ERA for the season. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The set: It's the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals for the fourth straight season, as the series begins Thursday night in Oakland at Oracle Arena. Golden State won its three home games by a total of 50 points in last year's Finals, avenging a dramatic 4-3 loss the previous year (led the series 3-1) with a 4-1 romp past the Cavaliers for its second championship in three seasons. The Cavaliers were seeded just fourth in the Eastern Conference and needed seven games to get past the Pacers in teh 1st round. Cleveland then shocked the top-seeded Raptors in a four-game sweep, before needing to win Games 6 and 7 in the conference finals to dispatch the Celtics. Meanwhile, Golden State lost two of three to Houston in the regular season and were relegated to second seeding behind the Rockets in the Western finals (Warriors won their first two series in five game). Like Cleveland, Golden State needed to win Games 6 and 7 to reach the NBA finals (Warriors won Games 1 and 7 in Houston). The Warriors and Cavaliers met twice in the regular season but the games came within a 21-day span in the first half of the season, with Golden State winning both. Golden State will be seeing Cleveland for the first time since the Cavaliers jettisoned almost half their roster at the trade deadline in order to bring in four Western imports, George Hill from Sacramento, Rodney Hood from Utah and Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. from the Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams open with key players with questionable status. Cleveland: Kevin Love suffered a concussion in Friday's Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Boston Celtics and has yet to pass the protocol. Head coach Tyronn Lue doesn't know if he will be available. Love was seen on the practice floor Wednesday and Lue did indicate that he will start the contest if he is cleared to play. Love's presence is needed, as LBJ can't "do it alone" against this team. James is averaging 34.0-9.2-8.8 assists in a stellar postseason but only (Love 13.9 & 10.0) is in double figures among Cleveland's other players. Golden State: Veteran defensive stopper Andre Iguodala (left leg) will miss his fifth consecutive contest, leaving Golden State without a player who typically shadows James. "Well, he was MVP of the series in 2015, largely because he took that role on of guarding LeBron, but also because of what he did offensively," head coach Steve Kerr told reporters in reference to Iguodala's importance. Kerr said the duty of guarding James will be spread among at least four players, forwards Kevin Durant and Draymond Green and guards Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston. The pick: Cleveland's defense has been shaky all season and Golden State's trio of Durant (29.0), Curry (24.8) and Thompson (20.5) don't figure to be contained. Cleveland comes in off the team's last three games averaging only 184.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Golden State, the NBA's highest scoring team, comes in off four straight unders with those contest averaging only 193.3 PPG. Expect that to change in Game 1. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-31-18 | Cubs -157 v. Mets | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets posted a 4-1 victory in Atlanta last night, as four relievers combined for four innings of one-run ball. New York jumped to an 11-1 start to the open the season but the Mets won for just the third time in 10 games Wednesday. New York sits 27-26 (4 1/2 games back in the NL East) as it opens a four-game home series with the Chicago Cubs at Citi Filed on Thursday night. The Cubs have averaged nearly six runs over their last 21 contests and have won five of their last seven on the road, although they squandered plenty of opportunities in Wednesday's 2-1 loss at Pittsburgh. After an inconsistent start to the season, Chicago's offense has come to life in May, with the Cubs now in second place in the NL Central at 29-25. However, they are 4 1/2 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers, whose 36-21 record is an NL-best. The pitching matchup: The Cubs will start lefty Jose Quintana (5-4, 4.78 ERA) and the Mets will counter with Seth Lugo (1-1, 2.48 ERA). Quintana has failed to get through five innings in three of his last five starts, issuing 15 walks over 26 innings in that span. He was pulled after just 4 1/3 innings last time out, allowing four runs and five hits in a 5-4 loss to San Francisco. The Cubs are a modest 6-4 in Quintana's 10 starts this season and he is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in only two career starts against New York. Lugo has been a valuable member of the Mets’ bullpen but will make a spot start after 20 appearances in relief. He worked 17 consecutive scoreless innings before allowing three runs in his last outing Monday at Atlanta. Lugo is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in three career games (one start) against the Cubs. The pick: New York's bullpen has been a revolving door (4.29 ERA ranks 22nd) and while that bullpen came through last night, it will be tested again during a four-game series against the Cubs with Seth Lugo stepping out of his relief role to start on short rest in tonight's series opener. Quintana has struggled at home this season (6.66 ERA) but in five road starts, his ERA is 3.18. With Chicago's bats heating up (see above), I'll make Chicago a 10* play. |
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05-30-18 | Marlins v. Padres -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Two last-place teams, the Miami Marlins (NL East) and San Diego Padres (NL West), opened a four-game series Memorial Day at Petco. The Marlins won 7-2 on Monday, before the Padres answered with a 9-5 win last night. The teams continue their series tonight, with Miami checking in at 20-34 (12 games out in the NL East) and San Diego at 23-33 (7 1/2 games out in the NL West). The pitching matchup: Jose Urena (0-7, 4.69 ERA) takes the mound for Miami and will be opposed by San Diego lefty Clayton Richard (3-6, 4.97 ERA). Urena hopes to avoid becoming the first Miami Marlins pitcher to start a season 0-8 when he takes the mound in Wednesday's game. What a fall from grace! He was 14-7 (3.82 ERA) in 2017, as the Marlins went 17-11 (plus-$682) in his 28 starts, giving him MLB's 14th-best moneyline mark. However, the Marlins have lost all 11 games that Urena has started this season and going back to last Sep. 26, Miami has lost 13 straight Urena starts. That said, It's not Urena's fault. His 4.69 ERA is more respectable than his 0-7 record but when Urena starts, the Marlins have given him only 2.84 runs of support on average, the lowest mark in the National League among pitchers with 10 or more starts. In fact, between April 27 and May 15, Urena had a 2.84 ERA over the span of four starts. Richard saw his two-game winning streak come to an end last Friday, when he gave up four runs and four hits in six innings in a 4-1 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has pitched at least seven innings and allowed three earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Richard has gone 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA in six career starts against Miami but took the loss after giving up five runs over seven innings in his last meeting on Aug. 27, 2017. The pick: One can argue that Urena has deserved better and that's true. However, who wants to try to step in front of a 13-start losing streak? Especially, when one notes that Urena will be making his third career start against the Padres in this one and he hasn't had much success against them. Urena is 0-2 against the Padres with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. The Padres are hitting .293 against Urena, who has allowed six runs (five earned) to San Diego on 12 hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. Both those starts were in Miami. Why should things go better here? As for Richard, in five starts against teams from outside the National League West this season, he has allowed 11 runs on 31 hits and five walks with 28 strikeouts in 37 innings, posting a 2.68 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Richard has not allowed a HR outside the division. Make San Diego a 10* play. |
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05-30-18 | Twins -139 v. Royals | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins won 8-5 at KC on Memorial Day but after Tuesday's 2-1 loss in 14 innings, they are just 1-5 in their last six games, scoring a total of seven runs in those five defeats. The 22-28 Twins and 19-36 Royals square off in the rubber match of the series, as the Royals seek consecutive home wins for the first time in nearly a month (beat the Tigers on May 3 & 4). The pitching matchup: A pair of rookies square off tonight, as Fernando Romero (2-1, 1.88 ERA) gets the nod for the Twins, opposed by the Royals' Brad Keller (1-1, 2.01 ERA). Romero suffered his first career loss Friday at Seattle despite limiting the Mariners to two runs and five hits in seven innings. The outing left him with a stellar 1.50 ERA in three road starts, during which he has registered 22 strikeouts in 18 innings. This marks Romero's sixth career start and he will be facing a divisional opponent for the first time. Keller will make his first career start in place of the injured Eric Skoglund after 21 relief appearances. The Rule 5 selection last pitched on Saturday, allowing his first run in nearly a month in a two-inning stint at Texas. Keller has a 1.80 ERA in 10 relief outings at home. The pick: Both young pitchers have excellent numbers but this mark's Keller's first start, compared to Romero making his sixth. Keller will be restricted to 50 to 60 pitches and the plan is to have Scott Barlow come in after Keller reached his pitch limit. Meanwhile, Romero has a 23-17 record in six minor-league seasons with a 2.83 ERA, 314 strikeouts and 102 walks in 324 1/3 innings. He entered the season as the Twins' No. 2 ranked prospect and owns a 1.88 ERA plus 1.12 WHIP, while opponents have hit just .194 against him in his first five career starts. Make the Twins an 8* play. |
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05-30-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -149 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -149 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Caps took a 4-3 lead early in the third period of Game 1 but the Golden Knights tied it very quickly. Vegas then went with Tomas Nosek's scored go-ahead goal midway into the third period and Nosek then added insurance into the empty net in Monday's 6-4 triumph. "We didn't play our best game," Capitals superstar captain Alex Ovechkin told reporters after his club's first contest since a Game 7 win over Tampa Bay on Wednesday. "I think next game is going to be different and all the nervousness, all the bad things (go) away (from) this game. We just have to forget about it and bounce back."both goaltenders came in red-hot but Fleury saved just 24 of 28 shots (.857) for Vegas, while Holby saved 28 of 33 shots (.848). Game 1 featured 10 goals and four lead changes and as the series turns to Game 2, these facts are known. Teams that take a 2-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Final are 46-5 (90.2 percent) when it comes to going on to eventually hoisting the Cup, while the odds drop to only 55.6 percent (15-12) for a team that loses Game 2 after winning Game 1. Washington: Tom Wilson's blindsided hit on Jonathan Marchessault did not result in a hearing with the NHL's Department of Player Safety on Tuesday, with the league citing that it was shoulder to shoulder rather than to the head and that it was in the flow of the game. Wilson had received a three-game suspension in the Eastern Conference semifinal series against Pittsburgh and said he has no plans to change his playing style. "You always have your reputation," Wilson told reporters. "When you play my physical style, you're going to have that reputation. I trust myself. I play the game hard. It's my job to bring that energy, that physicality. Right after he got up, he said 'good hit.'" Evgeny Kuznetsov notched an assist in the topsy-turvy series opener to extend his franchise-record postseason point streak to 11 games, during which the 26-year-old Russian has scored six goals and set up 10 others. T.J. Oshie set up a pair of goals in the series opener to push his point total to 13 (four goals, nine assists) in the past 12 games. Vegas: Nosek has just eight regular-season goals in 84 career contests but owns four points (three goals, one assist) in his last three games, while fellow fourth-liner Ryan Reaves has tallied in back-to-back contests for the first time since April 6 and 8, 2017. Reilly Smith continued his stellar postseason by scoring a goal and setting up another in the series opener, giving him 18 points (three goals, 15 assists) in 16 outings. Fellow forward Marchessault has done him one better with 19 points (eight goals, 11 assists), snapping a tie with New York Islanders' Jude Drouin (1975) and San Jose Sharks' Igor Larionov (1994) for the most with a franchise in its first-ever postseason. The pick: What made Game 1's high-scoring contest even more surprising was that Fleury had four shutouts and a .947 save percentage in his first 15 games of the playoffs, while Washington goalie Brayden Holtby came in off back-to-back shutouts against Tampa Bay and had a scoreless streak of 166 minutes and 42 seconds ended by a first period blast from the point by Vegas defenseman Colin Miller on the power play. I expect this game to be lower scoring but I see the same team coming out on top as in Game 1. Vegas has outscored the opposition 31-16 en route to posting a 7-1 mark at home in the playoffs, giving them a 36-10-3 mark on the season, outscoring opponents 3.61-to-2.41 GPG. Second verse, same as the first. Make Vegas a 10* play. |
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05-29-18 | Rangers v. Mariners -165 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners are well aware that they will have to contend all season long with the defending champion Astros in the AL West plus also know that either Boston or New York will likely claim one of the AL's two wild card spots. Reaching the playoffs in 2018 will be a real challenge for Seattle but the Mariners enter tonight's home game with the Texas Rangers looking for their 10th victory in their last 11 games, after posting a 2-1 victory in Monday's series opener. It was the team's fourth straight win, as Seattle moved a season-best 13 games over .500 at 33-20. The Mariners have allowed 20 runs over the 10-game run, holding the opposition to two or fewer in seven of the contests. The Rangers managed only five hits in Monday's loss, as the team fell to 22-34. Texas is last in the AL West, already 13 1/2 games back of 35-20 Houston. The pitching matchup: Texas will send Austin Bibens-Dirkx (0-1, 5.68 ERA) to the mound on Tuesday night, opposed by Seattle's Felix Hernandez (5-4, 5.58 ERA). Bibens-Dirkx learned Sunday that he would receive his second start of 2018 but that he could also be sent to Triple-A Round Rock after the outing, with the Rangers set to activate left-hander Matt Moore to start Wednesday. He lost 8-2 to the Kansas City Royals on Thursday, giving up six runs (four earned) on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings after being recalled earlier that day. He will be making first career start against the Mariners but had two relief appearances against Seattle last season, both in September and both in Arlington. He has a 0-0 record and a 6.75 ERA against the Mariners. Hernandez has sure not looked like a 'King,' going 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA over his past four starts. He has been unable to find the dominating form he often exhibited earlier in his career. The now 32-year-old has served up 10 HRs and has a mediocre 1.39 WHIP while striking out 51 in 61 1/3 innings. Hernandez allowed two runs and four hits over 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Rangers on April 20 and stands 19-24 with a 4.00 ERA in 55 career starts against Texas (hardly impressive). The pick: King Felix is no longer 'pitching royalty' but his Seattle team has rallied around the absence of star second baseman Robinson Cano due to a suspension, going 11-3 since he last suited up May 13. However, even a less than dominating Hernandez, gives Seattle an edge against the Rangers' Bibens-Dirkx. He had his contract purchased from Round Rock (AAA) on Thursday and made his season debut that night at home against Kansas City, taking the loss for the Rangers (see above). In fact, Bibens-Dirkx's 109 pitches in that game were a season high for a Texas starter (not a confidence-builder). Make Seattle an 8* play. |
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05-29-18 | Giants +131 v. Rockies | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The 29-25 Colorado Rockies sit atop the National League West standings (are 1 1/2 games up on slumping Arizona), despite not playing well at Coors Field. The division could be in trouble if Colorado gets that straightened out, as the Rockies own one of MLB's better road records at 19-13. Colorado entered last weekend with a poor 7-11 record at Coors Field this season, before taking two of three from Cincinnati to secure only its second series win at home in 2018. The Rockies then got off to a good start in nailing down a third such victory Monday, when Chris Iannetta singled home the winning run in the 10th inning in a 6-5 triumph over the Giants. San Francisco had a winning record as recently as May 15 but the Giants have dropped eight of 11 since, to fall back into fourth place in the West at 25-29, for the first time since April 25. However, San Francisco did some good news in Monday's series opener, as Buster Posey singled in his return to the lineup after a two-game absence and scored a run. The pitching matchup: The Giants send Jeff Samardzija (1-3, 6.23 ERA) to the mound to square off against Colorado lefty Kyle Freeland (4-5, 3.28 ERA). Samardzija fell to 0-3 over his last six outings Wednesday at Houston, surrendering four runs (three earned) on four hits and a season-high five walks across 4 2/3 innings. He has produced only one quality start in seven trips to the mound this season (team is just 2-5), working more than five innings only twice. Samardzija is 4-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 16 appearances (12 starts) versus the Rockies. The pick: Freeland has pitched seven innings in three of his last six outings and no fewer than 6 1/3 innings in any of those six games, going 4-2 with a 2.01 ERA in 40 1/3 innings, while allowing 28 hits (just one HR). However, Freeland allowed five HRs in his first four starts covering 20 innings and was 0-3 with a 5.85 ERA (team was 1-3). Has Freeland turned the corner? Maybe, but I'm not quite sure. I also still don't trust Colorado, which has allowed a whopping 5.55 RPG in 22 home contests in 2018. One is always hesitant to rely to heavily on Samardzija (his excellent 'stuff' often does translate into wins), but I'll make the Giants an 8* play in this one. |
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05-29-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers opened a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals with Monday's 8-3 victory. The 35-20 Brewers have now won four straight and are 7-1 on their current homestand. Milwaukee enters the second contest of the series tonight, having scored eight or more runs in three consecutive games, one shy of tying the club record. Monday's loss snapped a two-game winning streak for the Cardinals, who have now lost nine of 15 to slip five games back of the Brewers at 28-23, as well as a half-game behind the second-place Chicago Cubs (28-22) The pitching matchup: The Cardinals send Michael Wacha (5-1, 2.88 ERA) to the mound and the Brewers counter with Zach Davies (2-4, 4.74 ERA). Wacha lost his season debut back on March 31 but has only allowed more than two runs in just one of his nine starts since then, going 5-0 in that span (Cards are 7-2). He recorded his third straight quality start Wednesday, allowing two runs (one earned) over 6 2/3 innings in a no-decision against Kansas City. What's more, Wacha is 4-0 with a 4.60 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) against Milwaukee. Zach Davies was Milwaukee's ace in 2017, going 17-9 with a 3.90 ERA (Brewers were 20-13 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark at plus-$880). However, Davies spent nearly a month on the disabled list with a rotator cuff injury in 2018 and will make just his second start since returning in tonight's game. He was hardly sharp in his return to the rotation last Thursday against the New York Mets, allowing four runs and six hits and failing to record an out despite facing three batters in the fifth inning of a 5-0 loss. Davies is 2-1 with a 4.22 ERA in seven starts against the Cardinals. The pick: Wacha's been terrific for the Cards in 2018 and enters tonight's contest having held opponents to two runs or less over his last seven starts, while posting a 1.94 ERA during that stretch thanks to an improved curveball to complement the rest of his arsenal. I expect Davies to be much better in his second start since coming off the DL and will make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 208 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors found the form that made them NBA champions in the second half on Saturday in Game 6 and used it to run away with a 115-86 win and force a Game 7 in the Western Conference finals. The Rockets jumped out to a 39-22 lead after the first quarter and held a 61-51 edge at the break, but the Warriors held them to 25 points in the second half in the 29-point win. Thompson led the way with 35 points (9 of 14 on threes), while Curry added 29. "We'd like to get off to a better start," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "But we like -- we like our formula. We like our defense against these guys, and we feel confident that we can carry this through to Game 7 on the road and continue to make things as difficult as possible on Houston without fouling." Houston claims it is confident heading home, despite the beating it took in the second half on Saturday and the uncertainty surrounding the health of PG Chris Paul. "If you asked us when we were in the Bahamas this summer, this team together, you know, Western Conference Finals, Game 7 to go to the finals against the Warriors, we'll take that," Rockets star James Harden told reporters. "So, nothing changes for us. We know what we have to do." Golden State: Thompson was terrific in Game 6 (see above). "I feel like we're the best team in the world and most fun team in the world to watch when we're pushing that ball, getting defensive stops and making plays," Thompson told reporters. "We've got too much talent not just to hit singles like coach always says. Trust the next man ahead of us. It will end up working in our favor most of the time." Thompson added four steals to his performance and his teammates credited his work on Harden at the defensive end for sparking the offense. However, KD (the team's top scorer in the playoffs at 28.7 PPG), made just 6 of 17 from the floor. PF Draymond Green scored only four points but he collected 10 rebounds, nine assists, five blocks and four steals in Game 6. Golden State has survived without veteran swingman Andre Iguodala, who has missed the last three games of the series and is questionable for the finale with a left lateral leg contusion. Center Kevon Looney (sore left toe) is also questionable, but the Warriors have gotten little out of him, as he's averaging 4.0 & 5.3 in the three games Iguodala has missed. Houston: Paul sat out Game 6 with a hamstring injury suffered in the final minute of Game 5 and remains uncertain for Game 7. Houston committed 21 turnovers without their point guard on the floor in Game 6, including nine by Harden, who finished with 32 points and nine assists but continued a trend of poor shooting from beyond the arc with a 4-of-12 effort. After scoring 41 points in a Game 1 loss in which he made 5 of 9 three-pointers, Harden is 10 of 56 (17.9%) on threes the last five games of this series. It's been feast or famine this series for starting forwards Ariza and Tucker, plus much of the same for reserve guard Gordon. However, those three will need to come up big tonight, for Houston to win. Team doctors will re-evaluate Paul on Monday, with the decision on his availability to be determined by tipoff. The pick: The Warriors have never lacked confidence in this series, even while falling into a 3-2 deficit. However, their decisive victory in Game 6 served to reinforce the reality of what happens when they are at their best. Golden State shot 49.4 percent from the floor, including 16 of 38 on three-pointers in Game 6, while producing 26 assists on 43 field goals,. That's the kind of play the Warriors have shown these last few years, running roughshod over the NBA. For the Rockets to win (I think that's possible), they will need to outscore the Warriors. After four straight "umders" in this series, I say make the Over a 10* play in Game 7. |
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05-28-18 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Phillies have surprised almost all pundits as their 29-21 record has them just a half-game out of first place in the NL East, trailing only the equally surprising 30-21 Atlanta Braves. However, both teams are well aware that the powerful Washington Nationals are lurking nearby at 29-22. Philadelphia lost two of three over the weekend to the Toronto Blue Jays (of AL East) but despite those setbacks, the Phillies are where they are because of the team's impressive 19-6 record outside of their division (Philadelphia is just 10-15 versus the NL East in 2018!). The Phillies begin a four-game series against the host Los Angeles Dodgers this Memorial Day. The five-time defending NL West champs opened the season 16-26, matching the team's worst since moving from Brooklyn in 1958, but the Dodgers have won eight of 10 to move within 3 1/2 games of the lead in the NL West. Still, 24-28 LA's moneyline mark of minus-$,2357 ranks dead-last among all 30 teams, $573 worse than the 29th-ranked team (Baltimore, which is 17-36). The pitching matchup: Vince Velasquez (4-5, 4.18 ERA) takes the mound for Philly and he'll be opposed by LA's Brock Stewart (0-0, 3.72 ERA). Velasquez registered nine strikeouts in his last start, although he saw his three-start winning streak come to an end Tuesday against Atlanta after giving up two runs - one earned - on six hits and three walks while throwing 89 pitches over 4 1/3 innings (Braves won 3-1). He has failed to make it through five innings in three of his last six starts, although he is averaging 14.05 strikeouts per nine innings over his last three outings. Velasquez is 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA in three career games (two starts) against the Dodgers. Stewart has made 24 appearances but just nine starts the previous two seasons for LA but did enough in the eyes of manager Dave Roberts to earn another start after not factoring in the decision Tuesday against Colorado. He permitted two runs on five hits and a walk in four innings, as the Dodgers won 5-3. Stewart worked in relief in each of his previous three appearances of 2018, giving up two runs and five hits across 5 2/3 frames. His aonly previous appearance against the Phillies came last season, when he allowed a run in one inning of relief. The pick: The Dodgers are finally starting to find their rhythm with eight wins in their last 10, with the team looking much more like a cohesive unit offensively. Let's not forget that LA won a MLB-best 57 home games in 2017. However, let's also not forget that the Phillies own the majors' best winning percentage (.760) versus teams outside of their division. With two questionable starting pitchers, make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-28-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -141 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Stanley Cup finals opens in Las Vegas, as the long-time underachieving Washington Capitals will square off in Game 1 of this he best-of-seven series with the expansion Vegas Golden Knights. Who could have ever predicted this back in October? The Capitals will make their first appearance in the finals since 1998 while seeking their first-ever Cup, after losing in the second round of the playoffs as the Presidents’ Trophy winners in 2016 and 2017. Washington lost the first two games of the playoffs at home before beating Columbus in six contests, eliminated its nemesis Pittsburgh in six games (clincher came on the road) and then won at Tampa Bay in Game 7 on Wednesday to reach the finals in the 13th season for seven-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner Alex Ovechkin (607 goals). The expansion Golden Knights broke record after record for a first-year club during the regular season and then needed only 15 games to dispatch Los Angeles, San Jose and Winnipeg in the Western Conference playoffs to give themselves seven days off before facing the Ovechkin-led Capitals. Washington: Caps captain Ovechkin boasts career highs of 12 goals and 22 points in the playoffs after scoring the winner in Game 7 on Wednesday and Washington GM Brian MacLellan told reporters: “This is the most systematic he’s played throughout his career.” Ovechkin has gotten plenty of help from fellow Russian Evgeny Kuznetsov, who has a franchise-record 24 playoff points this season and owns at least one in 10 straight contests (six goals). Defenseman Brooks Orpik is the only Washington player with Stanley Cup finals experience and the 37-year-old is having his best career postseason with three assists and an NHL-best, plus-15 rating. Goalie Braden Holtby began the postseason on the bench but enters the finals 12-6-0 in the playoffs with a 2.04 goals-against average and .924 save percentage, after posting shutouts in Games 6 & 7 to help eliminate the Lightning. Vegas: Speaking of goaltending, the Golden Knights' Marc-Andre Fleury, is 12-3 with a 1.68 GAA and .947 save percentage in the playoff. Fleury won three Stanley Cups with Pittsburgh, including the last two seasons, and veteran forward James Neal reached the finals with Nashville in 2017 to give Vegas two players with plenty of knowledge on this big stage. “I think they’re just, with their experience and presence, they stay calm,” Golden Knights center William Karlsson, who has 13 points in the playoffs after scoring 43 goals in the regular season, told reporters. Forward Reilly Smith is tied for second in the league during the playoffs with 14 assists, while Jonathan Marchessault boasts eight goals to along with his team-high 18 points in the postseason told NHL.com: “We’re on a mission. Nobody is going to stand in front of us.” The pick: It's put up or shut up for both teams on Memorial Day in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena. This is the first finals in 11 years and the sixth in NHL history, to match two teams both going after their first Stanley Cup. Washington is a remarkable 8-2 on the road in the playoffs, after a 4-0 shutout of Tampa Bay in Game 7 of the Eastern finals this past Wednesday (note: the record for road wins in a playoff is 10). However, Vegas is a dominating 35-10-3 at home this year (including 6-1 in the playoffs), outscoring opponents 3.56-to-2.38 GPG. Make Vegas an 8* play. |
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05-28-18 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -145 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Homer Bailey (1-6, 6.21 ERA) gets the nod for Cincy and rookie Matt Koch (2-3, 3.77 ERA) will take the mound for Arizona. Bailey’s dismal season continued oin his last start, Wednesday, when he allowed four runs on 10 hits and three walks in five-plus innings against Pittsburgh last Wednesday in a 5-4 team loss. He has recorded only one win in 11 starts this season (the Reds are 1-10 in those starts!) and owns a 9-19 record and 6.33 ERA over his last four injury-plagued seasons. Bailey is 1-1 with a 3.42 ERA in five career starts versus Arizona, including a 1-1 mark and 4.70 ERA in two outings at Chase Field. Koch suffered his third straight loss Tuesday against Milwaukee despite allowing just one run and three hits over 5 1/3 innings. He has struggled to keep the ball in the park, giving up a total of eight HRs over his last five starts. Koch has posted a 4.55 ERA in five starts at home compared to a 2.03 mark in three games (two starts) away from Chase Field. The pick: It's hard to make a strong case for the rookie Koch (D'backs are 3-4 in his starts in 2018) or Arizona, which is on a 2-15 run. However, it's impossible to back Bailey, as the Reds are 1-10 in his 11 starts (minus-$848 vs. the moneyline) in 2018. He's got a 1.69 WHIP and .314 BAA, to go along with that ugly 6.21 ERA. Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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05-28-18 | Rays v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oakland Athletics get set to open a four-game series with the Tampa Rays on a busy Memorial Day in MLB. The series will cap a 10-game homestand for Oakland, which won 2-1 over Arizona on Sunday, evening its record at 3-3 on the current homestand. Oakland allowed a total of one run in back-to-back victories over Arizona, getting a complete-game shutout from Daniel Mengden on Saturday before Frankie Montas worked six solid innings in his season debut on Sunday, followed by three relievers who had four strikeouts over three perfect innings. Tampa Bay is coming off its third win in four games, an 8-3 triumph over Baltimore that concluded a 3-3 stretch at home. The Rays yielded three runs in the top of the first inning but rallied for six in the third to secure the series win. The Rays are 25-26 but already 10 games back in the top-heavy AL East (Boston & New York). The A's are 28-25 in the AL West, which is 5 1/2 games back of the defending World champion Astros. The pitching matchup: Tampa will send Chris Archer (3-3, 4.68 ERA) to the mound and he will be opposed by Oakland's Trevor Cahill (1-2, 2.75 ERA). Archer has pitched well this month, allowing fewer than three runs in four of his five starts but has just one win to show for his efforts, while the Rays have lost four of the five. He settled for a no-decision against Boston on Wednesday (a 4-1 Red Sox win), despite giving up just one run and four hits over six innings. Archer has made two career starts versus Oakland, going 1-0 while yielding five runs on 13 hits and seven walks with 16 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. Oakland's Cahill also did not factor in the decision his last time out, when he allowed two runs and four hits in seven innings against Seattle on Tuesday (Mariners won, 3-2). He is winless since his season debut against the Chicago White Sox back on April 17 (a 10-2 Oakland win), despite surrendering three ERs or fewer in each of his next five outings. Cahill owns a 2-1 record and 4.50 ERA in four starts and one relief appearance versus Tampa Bay. The pick: Archer just seems to be a hard-luck pitcher, whose solid pitching efforts just never seem to result in personal victories. Meanwhile, Cahill not only owns a very good 2.75 ERA but also an outstanding 0.97 WHIP plus opponents are only batting .205 against him. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-28-18 | Mets -135 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets' 11-1 start to the 2018 season is squarely in the 'rearview mirror,' these days. New York saw its bullpen give up 17 runs on 21 hits over 10 2/3 innings while losing three in a row at Milwaukee, not exactly the best way to enter Monday’s day-night doubleheader at the Atlanta Braves. The rough weekend dropped the Mets to just one game above .500 (25-24) and four behind the National League East-leading 31-20 Braves coming into a four-game series. To add insult to injury, the Mets are struggling to keep players on the field. Reliever A.J. Ramos returned to New York for a MRI on his right shoulder Sunday while infielder Wilmer Flores experienced back soreness in Sunday’s 8-7 loss and also is heading home for further examination. Atlanta also has some injury concerns, as 20-year-old phenom Ronald Acuna left Sunday’s 7-1 victory at Boston after hitting first base awkwardly in beating out an infield single in the seventh inning. He was able to walk off the field under his own power after staying down for several minutes with what the Braves termed, “knee and lower back pain,” and reportedly was undergoing testing at a Boston hospital after the game. Acuna’s injury marred an otherwise outstanding day for Atlanta as it salvaged a 2-4 road trip by pounding Red Sox ace Chris Sale for six runs across 4 1/3 innings, getting four hits and four RBIs from the duo of Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki. The pitching matchup: Jacob deGrom (4-0, 1.54 ERA) will get the Game 1 start for New York, opposed by Atlanta's Max Fried (0-2, 6.00 ERA). It has been a stellar two months for deGrom, who leads the NL in ERA and HRs per nine innings (0.3) while ranking second in strikeouts per nine innings (11.9). He has surrendered only one run in his past 33 1/3 innings with 47 strikeouts, matching his career high with 13 Ks in seven innings against Arizona on May 18. DeGrom has not allowed a run in two starts against the Braves this season, striking out 16 and giving up six hits in 11 innings. However, both were no-decisions that the Mets lost. Yes. he's 4-0, but the Mets are just 5-5 in his 10 starts in 2018. Atlanta is calling up the 24-year-old Fried for his first start of the season and his fifth major-league starting assignment. He has appeared in four games in the majors this season, all in relief, giving up four runs on five hits over six innings with seven strikeouts, suffering a pair of losses. Fried posted a 3.44 ERA while going 1-1 in four starts in 2017 and is Atlanta’s No. 7 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. He is 1-2 with a 3.12 ERA in five minor-league starts this season. The pick: Atlanta has won five of six meetings against the Mets this season and swept a three-game series in New York in early May. This day-night doubleheader is scheduled to make up an April 22 rainout. However, I have to like deGrom over Fried in this one. Make the Mets an 8* play. |
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05-28-18 | Nationals -132 v. Orioles | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Memorial Day features the opener of a three-game interleague series pitting Beltway rivals the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles. The Nats come to Camden Yards with a pitching staff operating at peak efficiency, allowing an average of 2.3 runs over a recent 5-1 run that has Washington within one game of the first place Atlanta Braves in the NL East at 29-20. The Nats opened their 10-game road trip by sweeping three from the Miami Marlins over the weekend, capped by a 5-2 win on Sunday, improving to 17-8 on the road this season. The last thing the 17-36 Baltimore Orioles want to see is a good pitching staff. Baltimore has been searching for offense for the better part of the 2018 season. The Orioles did score three run sin the first inning against Tampa on Sunday but that was all they could do, as the Rays rallied for an 8-3 victory. They lost two of three to the Rays over the weekend, scoring just six runs in the process. Baltimore is averaging 3.91 RPG (27th), while batting only .232 (25th). The pitching matchup: Lefty Gio Gonzalez (5-2, 2.38 ERA) goes for Washington and Alex Cobb (1-6, 7.32 ERA) will start of Baltimore. Gonzalez has been steady all season for the Nats, surrendering two or fewer earned runs in nine of his first 10 starts. He is coming off a 10-2 win over San Diego last Monday in which he allowed two runs and two hits in seven frames. The seven innings matched a season high. Gonzalez lost his lone start against Baltimore last season, getting ripped for six runs on seven hits - three HRs - in six innings. That's hardly new, as his 1-6 with a 4.40 ERA against the Orioles in his career. Cobb spent his first six seasons with the Tampa Bat Rays but agreed to a four-year, $57 million contract during spring training with the Orioles. This will be Cobb's his ninth start, as he tries to turn around an ugly beginning with his new team. To put it kindly, Cobb is still trying to find his footing with his new team. He followed up his first win (on May 18) with another poor outing on Wednesday. He was ripped for six runs on eight hits and two walks over 3 2/3 innings to suffer the loss, ending a string of four straight starts allowing three or fewer earned runs. Cobb is making his first career appearance against Washington but is 9-4 with a 2.50 ERA in 16 interleague starts. The pick: The teams split four meetings last season and will play six times in 2018. At the moment, it's hard to see Baltimore outplaying Washington in the series this year. The Orioles have a slugger in Manny Machado (15 HRs & 44 RBI) to match rival Bryce Harper (leads NL in HRs with 16) but they are not getting much production from the rest of the lineup, while scoring three or fewer runs in 10 of the last 12 games. Gonzalez has been good all season and I'm not much worried about his poor lifetime mark against Baltimore, as he's being opposed by Cobb. He has allowed 67 hits in just 39 1/3 innings, giving him a 1.93 WHIP and .379 BAA to go along with that ugly 7.32 ERA. Make Washington a 10* play. |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA has to be thrilled that both conference finals are headed to a Game 7. The first of those two will be the Cleveland Cavs are the Boston Celtics on Sunday night. This series will need a seventh game to decide but the individual games have hardly been tightly contested. Boston's matgin of victory have been by 25, 13 and 13 points, while the Cavs have won their home contests by 30, nine and 10 points. The Celtics have yet to lose at home in the playoffs (going a perfect 10-0) but a Game 7 against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers is different from every other test the young team has faced in the postseason. James comes in seeking his eighth straight trip to the Finals (four straight with the Heat and a current three-year run with the Cavs). Cleveland: LBJ stepped up with his team facing elimination in Game 6 on Friday, collecting 46 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists in 46 minutes to push Cleveland to a 109-99 win and put himself one win away from an eighth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. He comes in to this contest averaging 34.9 in Game 7s, including his 45 to help eliminate the Indiana Pacers in this year's first round. King James" has averaged 34 per game in going 13-9 in elimination games over his career. He will likely need help but that help won't come from teh team's second-leading scorer, as Kevin Love (13.9 & 10.0 this postseason) has been ruled out of this contest with a concussion. Jeff Green (14 points) and Larry Nance Jr. (10 points on 5-of-5 shooting) stepped up in Love's absence but can they be counted on again in Game 7? Boston: The Celtics have won the first three home games in the series by an average of 17 points and already own a Game 7 home win under their belts in this postseason, after knocking off the Milwaukee Bucks 112-96 in the first round. "Best player in the game," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said after Friday's game. "Special night tonight and special night in Game 4 ... I can't say enough good things about him." Added Terry Rozier, who has often found himself outmanned in a switching situation that left him on James: "We know LeBron is different than a lot of other guys, but we've got to get the job done." Rozier scored a series-high 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 6 after slumping to eight points on 3-of-15 in Game 5. SG Jaylen Brown had 27 points in Game 6 and is averaging 20.8 points in the series and a team-high 18.3 in the postseason. Rookie SF Tatum is right behind him at 18.2 PPG and was the one who collided with Love. However, Tatum was checked out by doctors Saturday and Stevens said there was "nothing there to be concerned about" with his star rookie. The pick: As noted before throughout this year's playoffs, the Celtics have never lost a series they've led 2-0. If fact, they've made it 36 and 37 straight with this year's first two rounds. |
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05-27-18 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants snapped a three-game losing streak with a 5-4 victory over the Cubs on Saturday. After struggling to score runs of late, the Giants scored as many runs as they had in their previous three games, all losses. The Giants also improved to 23-4 this season in games when they scored at least four runs. The Cubs won Friday's opener 6-2 and the teams meet tonight on ESPN for the rubber match of this three-game set. The Cubs own the better record this season (26-22 to 25-27) but Chicago sits 4 1/2 games out of first in the NL Central, while teh Giants are within two games of first in the NL West. The pitching matchup: Ty Blach (3-4, 4.37 ERA) will get the nod for the Giants and Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 3.74 ERA) for the Cubs. Blach has struggled recently, failing to get through the fifth inning in each of his last three starts. The 27-year-old gave up four runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings of a no-decision against Colorado last time out but the Giants are 2-1 in his last three outings. Blach is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in two career starts against the Cubs, both of which occurred last season. Yu Darvish was Chicago's major off-season signing but he hasn’t yet paid many dividends plus he won’t be on the mound as scheduled for the finale of their three-game series against the visiting San Francisco Giants on Sunday night. The Cubs had to shuffle their rotation for the rubber match of the set, as Tyler Chatwood will move up a day. Chatwood’s control woes continued in his last start, as he issued six walks while giving up four runs in just 2 2/3 innings of a 10-1 loss to Cleveland. Chatwood is 7-4 with a 2.84 ERA in 17 career games (16 starts) against the Giants. The pick: The Giants won for just the second time in their last 11 road contests on Saturday, putting them in position to win their first series at Wrigley Field since 2014. Meanwhile, the Cubs have lost five of their last six home games. We don't have two "name starters" in this one but Blach has won both previous starts against the Cubs and Chatwood owns a 2.84 ERA in 17 career appearances against the Giants. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-27-18 | Diamondbacks v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks had lost seven straight both overall and on the road before recording a 7-1 victory over the Oakland A's in the series opener on Friday. However, they were silenced by Daniel Mengden on Saturday, notching only a pair of singles in a 3-0 setback. Arizona is now 1-7 as it concludes a dismal nine-game road trip Sunday against the Athletics. The D'backs have lost 14 of their last 16 overall contests and are now back to looking for answers, as the team's strong 24-11 start to the season seems 'light years' in the past. Mengden tossed his second career complete game - and shutout - as he improved to just 2-11 lifetime at Oakland Coliseum while the Athletics raised their record to 2-3 on their 10-game homestand. Oakland managed only five hits Saturday but all went for extra bases, including solo HRs by Matt Joyce, Matt Olson and Chad Pinder. The A's check in at 27-25, a half-game game better than Arizona's 26-25 mark. However, while the D'backs are just a half-game out of first in the NL West, the A's are 6 1/2 back of the first-place Astros in the AL West. The pitching matchup: Zack Greinke (3-3, 3.71 ERA) will get the start for Arizona and will be opposed by Oakland's Frankie Montas (2017: 1-1, 7.03 ERA). Greinke had his four-start unbeaten streak halted last time out (D'backs were 3-1), as he served up a season-high three HRs en route to allowing four runs over six innings in a 4-2 loss at Milwaukee on Monday. He did register nine strikeouts in that defeat, marking the fourth time he has reached that total in 10 starts this season. Greinke will take the mound having gone 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA in his four road starts in 2018, with the only win coming in an 8-7 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers (allowed four ERs in 6 1/3 innings). Montas is being recalled from Triple-A Nashville to make his third major-league start, and his first for Oakland, in order to give Trevor Cahill an extra day of rest. The 25-year-old Montas came out of the bullpen for the Athletics last season after going 0-2 in two starts and five relief appearances for the Chicago White Sox in 2015. He has never has faced Arizona and doesn't bring much of a resume into this contest, having gone 1-5 with a 4.39 ERA in nine starts in the minors this year. The pick: If the Diamondbacks are to win their first series since May 4-6 against the Houston Astros, then Greinke is going to have to do something he hasn't done all season, and that's pitch well on the road (see above for a reminder). However, he has had success against Oakland in his career, going 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 appearances (11 starts), including going 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in nine games (six starts) in Oakland. Still, I won't ignore Greinke's road numbers (6.94 ERA) or expect Montas to pitch well in this "spot start," with his resume (limited ML experience and unimpressive minor league numbers). Make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-27-18 | Blue Jays +107 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 107 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia's Aaron Nola took a no-hit bid into the seventh inning and Nick Williams belted his third pinch-hit HR of the season in the eighth inning of Saturday's 2-1 win by the Phillies over the Blue Jays. Philadelphia has now alternated wins and losses over its last eight games on the heels of a 7-1 stretch. However, the Phillies find themselves atop the NL East this late in the season for the first time since they won the division back in 2011. The main reason being, Philadelphia's NL-best 19 home wins (eight losses). The 29-20 Phillies look to continue their winning ways at home this afternoon when they wrap up this three-game IL series against the Blue Jays. Toronto checks in at 24-28, after dropping 10 of its last 13. The pitching matchup: J.A. Happ (6-3, 3.97 ERA) will get the start for Toronto and Nick Pivetta (4-2, 3.23 ERA) goes for Philadelphia. The Phillies drafted Happ and he spent parts of three seasons with them. The now 35-year-old recorded his second straight victory this past Tuesday, permitting two runs on three hits in seven innings of a 5-3 triumph over the Los Angeles Angels. Happ fanned just five batters in that contest but is averaging a career-high 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings this season. Happ has been a reliable arm for the Blue Jays this season, pitching at least six innings in six of his 10 outings (Toronto is 7-3) with a 1.10 WHIP and 71 strikeouts in 59 innings. Pivetta has answered a disastrous start on May 4 (got just three outs while allowing six ERs in a 7-3 loss at Washington!) with three straight victories, highlighted by Monday's performance in which he scattered four hits over seven innings in a 3-0 triumph versus Atlanta. He has allowed just one run on 10 hits while striking out 25 batters against two walks during his winning streak (0.73 ERA). The pick: Pivetta will make his first career appearance versus Toronto. Yes. Philly has been terrific at home but Happ will be making his 20th career start and 30th appearance at Citizens Bank Park, facing the team he debuted with in 2007. He has dominated the team with which he spent parts of three seasons, posting a 4-0 career mark with a 1.11 ERA while limiting Philadelphia to a .174 batting average. Make Toronto an 8*. |
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05-26-18 | Reds v. Rockies -145 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds opened the season 3-15 before firing manger Bryan Price and while they've been more competitive under Jim Riggleman, Cincy still owns the NL's worst record (18-34) and finds themselves 14 games out of first place in the NL Central. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez crushed a two-run HR in Friday’s 5-4 loss at Colorado and is 6-for-15 with two HRs and eight RBI during his four-game hitting streak. He is the National League's surprise leader in RBI with 40 runs. All that, despite missing 16 games last month due to injury. Meanwhile, Colorado's All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado homered in the first inning. It was the first time Arenado had done so since May 5 at the New York Mets. The home run was Arenado's ninth this season and came after he went 64 at-bats without one. Colorado was a wild card team in 2017 (87-75) and its 27-24 record in 2018, has them in first place in the NL West, a half-game ahead of the Diamondbacks. The pitching matchup: Tyler Mahle (3-6, 4.53 ERA) takes the mound for the Reds and squares off against Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson (3-1, 4.74 ERA). The 23-year-old Mahle was a seventh-round draft pick of the Reds in 2013 and is considered a rookie this season, after just four appearances in 2017. He has an impressive 52 strikeouts over 53 2/3 innings but has also served up 13 HRs, including three in his last outing (he has allowed multiple HRs in five of his 10 starts this season). Mahle lost his second straight start last Sunday, allowing four runs over six innings a 6-1 defeat at the hands of the Chicago Cubs. He has never faced the Rockies. Anderson hopes to bounce back from a tough outing against San Francisco on Sunday, when he allowed five runs over 5 1/3 innings. He comes in struggling, having given up 13 runs (12 earned) on 19 hits over 16 innings in his last three starts (6.75 ERA). Anderson earned the victory in his only previous start against the Reds, allowing two runs with seven strikeouts over six innings on May 19, 2017. The pick; The Rockies are in first place, despite Arenado having just ended a streak of 16 consecutive games without a HR last night. Arenado hit 42 HRs with 130 RBI in 2015, followed by seasons of 41-133 and 37-130 but said pitchers seem more inclined to walk him this season. Hard to imagine Arenado not "breaking out" soon or that the Rockies will continue to struggle here in Coors (just 8-11). Mahle seems ill-equipped to get in the way of a Colorado win. Make the Rockies an 8* play. |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212 | Top | 86-115 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Thge set-up: The Houston Rockets are on the brink of the franchise's first trip to the NBA Finals since 1995, something which seemed very implausible after they lost Game 3 in Oakland 126-85. However, the Rockets have won two straight low-scoring games between the NBA's top-two offensive teams. The Warriors claimed their largest lead of Game 4 at 82-70 when Stephen Curry assisted on a Shaun Livingston dunk at the 10:45 mark. That play produced the 14th and final assist of the evening for Golden State. The Rockets would go on to hold the Warriors to 12 points in the fourth quarter (Golden State missed its final five FG attempts) to earn a 95-92 victory. The Rockets then took a 3-2 series lead with a home 98-94 win in Game 5. However, the win didn't come without a huge price, as PG Chris Paul had to leave with a hamstring injury in the final minute of that contest. He was ruled out of Saturday's Game 6 on Friday. It's obviously not something we wanted," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters before Friday's practice. "I hate it for him above all. He's practically won us the past two games. But it's a great opportunity for other guys, and we have plenty to choose from. We'll be ready." As for the Warriors, who represented the West in the last three NBA Finals, they are not panicking about being one loss away from an early vacation. "I feel great about where we are right now," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters after Game 5. "That may sound crazy, but I feel it. I know exactly what I'm seeing out there, and we defended them beautifully (Thursday night). We got everything we needed. Just too many turnovers, too many reaches, and if we settle down a little bit, we're going to be in really good shape." Houston: The Rockets have won the last two games despite a historic shooting slump from likely league MVPJames Harden, who ha snow missed his last 20 three-point attempts after going 0-of-11 from beyond the arc on Thursday. Harden scored a series-low 19 points on 5-of-21 shooting in Game 5. Eric Gordon has been a key contributor to the Rockets' success off the bench in the series. He has single-handedly outscored Golden State's reserves 38-16 in the last two games, both of which Houston has won to reverse what had been a 2-1 deficit in the series. Center Clint Capela recorded his first double-double of the series with 12 points and 14 rebounds on Thursday. Golden State: Kevin Durant scored a team-high 29 points in Game 5 but was 8-of-22 from the floor and got caught in isolation several times instead of moving the ball. Durant is averaging 31.2 points on 46.5 percent shooting in the series after shooting 51.6 percent during the regular season.Thompson was listed as questionable for Game 5 but scored 23 points. Curry had 22 and Green 12 & 15. However, Andre Iguodala (knee) sat out for the second staright game and is questionable for Game 6. Looney started in his place these last two (both losses) and has added little (a combined eight points and nine rebounds). Steve Kerr admitted Friday that he had "no idea" whether Iguodala would be available for Game 6, while at the same time noting that "he's gotten incrementally better each day." Golden State's bench totaled just four points in Game 5 and it's hard to imagine that happening again. The pick: With or without Iguodala, history says the Warriors will be tough to beat under the circumstances they'll be experiencing in Game 6. Since Kerr took over as coach in 2015, the Warriors are 36-6 at home in the postseason, including an NBA-record 16-game winning streak that was snapped in their 95-92 loss in Game 4. They've won 26 of their last 32 playoff games regardless of the site and have a 3-1 record under Kerr in potential elimination games, with the lone loss coming in Game 6 of the 2016 Finals against Cleveland. Hard to imagine teh Warriors losing here but this is a HUGE number. After the league's two-best offensive teams have just played games totaling just 187 and 192 points, I'm making the Over a 10* play. |
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05-26-18 | Royals v. Rangers -136 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The KC Royals and Texas Rangers, two underachievers so far in 2018, continue a four-game series Saturday afternoon in Arlington. Texas ended the New York Yankees' streak of winning eight straight series with a dramatic 12-10 victory on Wednesday and opened this series on Thursday having totaled 23 runs over its previous three games prior to managing only five hits (all singles) in an 8-2 defeat against Kansas City. However, the Rangers rebounded nicely in Friday's 8-4 victory, hitting three HRs while scoring at least one run in five innings for their third win in the last four contests. The 21-32 Rangers attempt to prolong one of their most successful stretches of the season Saturday when they host the third of four games against the Royals. KC's loss last night snapped a season-best three-game winning streak for the 17-34 Royals, who rank sixth in the majors in runs scored this month with 109, after finishing 29th in April with 85. Kansas City has picked up the pace offensively over the last four games, totaled 22 runs to match the output it had over the previous nine contests combined. The pitching matchup: Ian Kennedy (1-5, 5.30 ERA) steps to the mound on Saturday to counter the ageless Bartolo Colon (2-2, 3.51 ERA) of Texas. Kennedy's lone win of 2018 came back on April 7 (1-0 at Cleveland) and he takes the mound here, having allowed a total of 19 runs and 24 hits across 15 2/3 innings over his last three outings. He dropped his fifth straight decision Monday at St. Louis, surrendering five runs on nine hits over 5 2/3 innings. Despite a 3.58 ERA in six career starts vs. Texas, Kennedy has yet to earn a victory, going 0-2. Colon is coming off his worst start of the season in Monday's 10-5 loss to the Yankees, yielding four HRs among the season-high six runs and eight hits he allowed in 5 1/3 innings. The former Cy Young Award winner has been significantly worse at home (0-2, 5.46 ERA) than he has on the road (2-0, 1.59), surrendering 10 of his 13 HRs in Globe Life Park. Colon is 15-11 with a 5.04 in 31 appearances (30 starts) against Kansas City throughout his long career. The pick: Both pitchers will be making their 11th start of 2018 and while both have seen their teams lose more than they've won (KC is 3-7 in Kennedy's 1st 10 starts, while Texas is 4-6 in Colon's 1st 10), the similarity ends there. Kennedy has an 'ugly' 5.30 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP and opponents are batting .295 against him. Meanwhile, Colon's owns a respectable 3.51 ERA, an outstanding 0.92 WHIP plus opponents are batting a modest .225 against him. Colon has 242 career wins, one shy of matching Hall of Famer Juan Marichal (243) for most wins in MLB history by a native of the Dominican Republic. His 45th birthday was Thursday and I say he gives himself a belated birthday present, joining the great Juan Marichal with 243 career wins. Make Texas a 10* play. |
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05-26-18 | Braves v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Mookie Betts hit his major league-leading 17th home run last night, one of four Red Sox players to homer in a 6-2 series opening over the Atlanta Braves. Boston's victory was the team's seventh in its last nine games, giving them a ML-best 35-16 record (lead the 32-15 NY Yankees by one game in the AL East). The surprising 29-20 Braves just lost two of three to the Phillies and with their third loss in their last four last night, now lead the Phils by just a half-game in the NL East. Some big news for Boston is, second baseman Dustin Pedroia played in rehab games on Wednesday and Thursday. The Red Sox activated Dustin Pedroia from the disabled list Friday and he is expected to make his season debut Saturday, after left knee surgery. The pitching matchup: Sean Newcomb (5-1, 2.39 ERA) will get the start for the Braves and will be opposed by fellow lefty, Boston's Drew Pomeranz (1-2, 5.97). Newcomb's outstanding early season run continued last Saturday against Miami, as he won his fourth straight start while allowing just one run in six innings. It is the only run he has allowed in 25 innings during his four-game winning streak, during which opponents have managed only nine hits. Newcomb is a Massachusetts native and was in line to make a homecoming start for the Atlanta Braves on Friday night at Fenway Park. However, manager Brian Snitker moved Julio Teheran into the Friday start against the Boston Red Sox and he did it for good reason. Newcomb has thrived when given an extra days' rest, going 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA while making seven of his previous nine starts with an extra day off. Pomeranz was also pushed back in order to get in some side work during the week, but for different reasons. He completed only four innings in each of his last two starts, giving up a total of eight runs (seven earned) and walking as many (eight) as he struck out. The pitcher who was 17-6 (3.32 ERA & 1.18 WHIP) in 2017, now owns a 5.97 ERA and 1.78 WHIP after six starts, while opposing batters are hitting .302 against him The pick: No reason to think that Newcomb won't pitch well here, especially on extra rest (see above). Also, while Boston jumped out to a 17-2 start, the Red Sox are a modest 18-14 , since. As for Pomeranz, a strained forearm delayed his 2018 debut until April 20, but I'm not about to ignore how well he pitched in 2017 for Boston. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics lost prized off-season free agent Gordon Hayward in their regular season opener at Cleveland. Then, Boston lost prized off-season trade acquisition, Kyrie Irving (note: Irving's 24.4 PPG average was 10 points higher than the team's second-best scorer!), in mid-March for the remainder of the year. However, the Celtics are just one win away from reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Celtics own a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference finals but while they are a perfect 10-0 at home, they are only1-6 on the road this postseason (including losses in Games 3 & 4 at Cleveland). As for the Cavs, LeBron James could be playing in his final game in Cleveland before his expected dive into free agency. However, it should come as nor surprise that "The King" is clearly focused on earning one more trip to Boston. "We're looking forward to having an opportunity to force a Game 7," James told reporters after his squad's 96-83 loss in Wednesday's Game 5. "It's up to us to see if we can come back here for one more." Also on the line is LBJ's consecutive Finals streak, as he has gone to the last seven, including the past three with the Cavs. Boston: Rookie SF Jayson Tatum scored 24 points in Game 5 for his ninth 20-point outing of the postseason. The 20-year-old is putting together one of the best scoring playoff runs by a rookie in NBA history with 312 points and he trails only Elgin Baylor (331), Alvan Adams (341) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (352). Tatum led Boston in Game 5 but four others scored in double-digits, which tells the story of the Celtics' success this postseason. Tatum has averaged 18.4 & 4.3 this postseason, followed by Brown (17.8 & 4.9), Rozier (16.5-5.5-5.8), Horford (12.5 & 8.5), Morris (12.5 & 5.2) and Smart (10.2-3.8-5.0). Boston's defense was smothering in the Game 5 win. The Cavs were forced into 15 turnovers, as the Celtics changed their starting lineup and went big, inserting Aron Baynes for Marcus Morris but often playing both of them with Al Horford. The Celtics ended the regular season allowing 100.4 PPG (3rd) on 44.0% shooting (2nd), including 33.9% on threes (1st). Cleveland: James had 26 points, 10 rebounds and five assists while going 11-of-22 shooting in Game 5 but he downplayed interrogating questions about his level of fatigue (note: LBJ scored only two points in the 4th quarter). "I had my moments, but I think everybody at this point is tired, worn down whatever the case may be," James told reporters. "I was still trying to make plays, put our team in position to win." James topped 40 points twice in this series and six times in the postseason and has at times single-handedly kept his team afloat. That said, the Cavs will need their complementing players to step up. Kevin Love was the only other Cavaliers player who scored in double figures in Game 5, while the team's other three starters (Hill, Smith and Thompson) combined for just 10 points on 2 of 14 shooting! The pick: So where do we (I) stand? LBJ will need help but in the end, it is really all about him. This marks LBJ's 22nd game in which his team will be facing elimination. In the previous 21 games in which his team has faced elimination in the playoffs, James is averaging an NBA-record 33.5 points. He has played in seven of these with the Cavs dating to the 2015 playoffs, and not only is he averaging 36.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 9.1 assists in those games, he has scored 40 or more five times and Cleveland has won those four games. The last time the Cavs faced an elimination scenario -- which means the last time they had to deal with the whole "LeBron's last game" narrative -- was Game 7 of the first round against the Pacers. James scored 45 that day and the Cavs survived, although did not cover. However, the Pacers only earned that ATS win by making a meaningless three-pointer in the final seconds. Boston's been unbeatable at home but on the road....NOT SO MUCH! Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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05-25-18 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers began their 10-game homestand with a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, outscoring them 14-4. The surge landed Milwaukee in first-place in the NL Central but the team landed with a thud in its series opener against the New York Mets last night, managing only five singles in a 5-0 loss. Milwaukee now looks to bounce back Friday as it continues the four-game set with Ryan Braun back in the lineup. The former MVP recorded one of those singles last night, in his first game following a stint on the disabled list due to a back ailment. Meanwhile, the Mets pounded out 13 hits as they began their eight-game road trip on a positive note. Brandon Nimmo fell a HR shy of the cycle, as he went 4-for-4 with a walk and scored twice. New York had lost two straight prior to Thursday, scoring one run in each defeat, and had dropped three of its previous four on the road. Milwaukee is headed in the right direction at 31-20 on the season, after a 9-9 start. As for New York, the Mets opened 11-1 but last night's win leaves them a more modest 25-21. The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (4-1, 2.91 ERA) takes the mound for New York, opposed by Milwaukee's Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.98 ERA). Syndergaard got a win in his season debut but allowed four runs. However, he has allowed three runs or less in each of his last nine starts. He is a modest 3-1 in those nine starts but the Mets are 6-3. It may be notable that he hasn't started on the road since April 26 in St. Louis (we'll see). Syndergaard has been dominant against Milwaukee in his career, going 2-0 with a 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in three starts (Mets are 3-0). Guerra appears to have overcome a pair of rough starts to start the month, allowing three runs over 10 1/3 innings while going 1-0 in his last two outings (2.53 ERA). However, Guerra has struggled at home, surrendering nine runs over 10 innings in back-to-back losses, after giving up one unearned run across 10 2/3 innings in his first two outings of 2018 at Miller Park. Guerra has permitted one run over 12 2/3 innings while going 1-0 in two career starts against New York (Brewers are 1-1). The pick: Despite Milwaukee's .608 win percentage (highest in the NL) and its three-game lead in the NL Central, the Brewers have been shut out a major league-high nine times this season. That hardly bodes well against Syndergaard, who owns a 2.91 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and a 68-13 KW ratio. That's not mention his 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee. Guerra is no Syndergaard but he's a solid part of a Milwaukee rotation which owns' MLB's second-best ERA (3.37). What's more, Milwaukee's bullpen ERA is a ML-best 2.46! Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-25-18 | Royals v. Rangers -145 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers opened a four-game series in Arlington last night, with the Royals rolling to an 8-2 victory. KC now looks to extend its season-high winning streak to four games on Friday with the second contest of its four-game series. Kansas City has outscored its opponents 18-5 during its season-best stretch and now owns a 17-33 record. Texas was limited to five hits in the opener, after it slugged seven HRs and scored 23 runs while taking two of three from the New York Yankees. The Rangers own just a slightly better record than KC (at 20-32), due mostly to the team's home woes (Rangers own a 9-18 home record!). The pitching matchup: Lefty Eric Skoglund (1-4, 6.15 ERA) will get the start for the Royals, while Texas counters with a lefty of its own in Mike Minor (3-3, 5.59 ERA). Skoglund takes the mound win-less in his last four starts (team is 1-3), losing each of his last two starts. He was torched for six runs and eight hits in five innings of a loss to New York in his last outing. Skoglund has struggled on the road in six major-league appearances (five starts), going 0-2 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.05 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .548. As for Minor, his numbers are hardly 'pretty!' He is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA over his last three starts (team is 0-3), serving up five HRs in 15 1/3 innings during that stretch. He had won three straight decisions before falling into his current rut plus allowed just three HRs over his first six starts of 2018. Minor is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against Kansas City, a team for which he made 65 relief appearances last season, while posting a career-best 2.55 ERA. The pick: Yes, the Rangers are among MLB's worst home teams (9-18) but the struggling Texas lineup is way better than its performance, so far. KC's Skoglund looks to be the perfect foil, as his 6.15 ERA attests. What's more, his six major-league appearances on the road (five starts) reveal a 9.82 ERA and 2.05 WHIP with opponents batting an unheard of .548. against him! As for Minor, he spent last year as a reliever with Kansas City, leading the staff in relief wins (6), ranking second in appearances (65) and saves (6), plus placing third in holds (17) and games finished (13). Maybe most importantly, he posted a career-best 2.55 ERA. Minor has struggled on the road (8.38 ERA and 1.60 WHIP) but while his teammates have struggled in Arlington, he owns a more than respectable 3.72 home ERA (five starts), plus a good 1.14 WHIP. Make Texas an 8* play. |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets allowed 126 points on 52.2 percent shooting in a 41-point loss in Game 3 but came out with a renewed passion on the defensive end in Game 4, evidenced by the team's play in the fourth quarter. Houston was staring at a 10-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter and if the Rockets couldn't get things turned around in the final 12 minutes. they would be returning home for Game in a 3-1 series hole. However, the fourth quarter of Game 4 provided a prime example of Houston's "renewed passion on the defensive end." The Warriors claimed their largest lead of the contest at 82-70 when Stephen Curry assisted on a Shaun Livingston dunk at the 10:45 mark. That play produced the 14th and final assist of the evening for Golden State. The Rockets would go on to hold the Warriors to 12 points in the fourth quarter (Golden State missed its final five FG attempts) to earn a 95-92 victory. "How we defend, how we pay attention to detail and how we go about playing defense. Tonight, in the fourth quarter when it mattered, we got stops. It let us get back in the game, it let us take the lead and it let us win." Meanwhile, Golden State head coach Steve Kerr blamed fatigue for his team's poor fourth-quarter performance but conceded that the Rockets were the better team down the stretch. "I felt like in the fourth quarter we just ran out of gas," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "Scored 12 points. Tried to buy a little rest for our guys, but yeah, they just outplayed us in the fourth and they earned it." Golden State: The Warriors held Houston to 39 percent shooting in Game 4 but still couldn't win. Golden State shot only 39.3% in the loss and while Curry had 28 points and KD added 27 & 12, Klay Thompson was held to just 10 points on 4-of-13 shooting. He now owns an average of 10.3 points over the last three games after going off for 28 in Game 1. Andre Iguodala (leg) sat out Game 4 and is questionable for Thursday. Golden State "went big" by replacing him in the starting lineup with the 6-9 Looney, who did little (four points on 2 of 6 shooting in 26 minutes). What's more, the Golden State bench contributed a modest 12 points. Houston: The Game 4 win returns the homecourt edge to Houston, which needs two wins over the next three games to knock the Warriors off their three-year reign as Western Conference champs. PG Chris Paul battled a foot injury in Game 4 but turned in his best scoring effort of the series with 27 points on 10-of-20 shooting. Harden led the way with 30 points, despite making only 3 of 12 three pointers. The pick: Golden State (No. 1) and Houston (No. 20 are the two-best offensive teams in the NBA but "get there" in very different ways. The Warriors paced the NBA in assist percentage (68.5) during the regular season, while conversely, the Rockets ranked 22nd at 55.7 percent, relying mostly on the isolation brilliance of James Harden and Chris Paul. I expect Golden State to bounce back in a big way but I also expect Houston's complimentary players Ariza, Tucker and Gordon to bounce back at home, as well. Eric Gordon scored 27 points in the last game played in Houston (Game 2) but went 3-of-16 from three-point range over the last two games. Ariza and Tucker combined 41 points in making 15 of 18 shots in Game 2 but then totaled only 25 points (on 6 of 19 shooting) in Games 3 and 4 in Oakland. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-24-18 | Red Sox -129 v. Rays | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -129 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox and Yankees are in a see-saw battle for the AL East lead, as the two teams own MLB's top-two records. Xander Bogaerts doubled in the go-ahead run during a three-run ninth inning on Wednesday as Boston ran its winning streak to four games with a 4-1 win over the Rays at Tropicana Field. The victory gave them a major league-best 34-15 record and with the Yankees falling 12-10 at Texas, a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL East over 31-15 New York. Tampa Bay had won six in a row to climb back to the .500 mark but the Rays have scored a total of just five runs in losing their last three. The last two have come against the Red Sox, as Tampa will attempt to avoid a three-game home sweep in tonight's contest. The pitching matchup: Rick Porcello (6-1, 3.39 ERA) will be on the mound for Boston, opposed by Tampa lefty Blake Snell (5-3, 3.07 ERA). Porcello won the AL's 2017 Cy Young (21-4, 3.15 ERA) but then fell to 11-17, 4.65 last season. However, at 6-1, Porcello has returned to his 2016 form so far in 2018. Porcello already has seen more of the Tampa Bay Rays in less than two months than most pitchers do of one opponent in a season. Porcello will make his 11th start of the year but his fourth against the Rays. Porcello opened the season with back-to-back wins over Tampa Bay, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings at Tropicana Field on March 31 and then allowed three runs in 7 1/3 innings at home on April 7. He also worked a season-high 7 2/3 innings against the Rays on April 29, giving up three runs in a no-decision that Boston won 4-3. Snell rebounded from his worst start of the season (allowed five ERs in just 3 1/3 inning vs. Baltimore on May 13) with a strong effort at the Los Angeles Angels on Friday, striking out eight in 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball. It marked the seventh time in eight starts he has permitted fewer than three runs, including a 7 1/3-inning outing at Boston on April 27 in which he gave up two. Snell is 2-1 with a 1.07 ERA in four home starts, one of which was a 5 2/3 scoreless-inning performance against the Red Sox on March 30. The pick: Porcello is14-8 in his career against Tampa Bay with a solid 3.23 ERA, although four of those losses came last season. However, a noted already, 2018 is shaping up much more like 2016 for Porcello, than 2017. Back in his Cy Young season of 2016, he posted a 5-0 record against the Rays. Getting back to Snell, he is 2-3 with a 4.13 ERA against the Red Sox in his career, including an 0-2 mark with a 5.97 ERA last season. Getting back to just the team vs. team matchup, Boston has already won nine of 12 in the season series, including five of six at Tropicana Field. Make Boston an 8* play. |
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05-24-18 | Astros -124 v. Indians | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros won 4-1 last night behind Justin Verlander, sweeping a two-game IL series over the Giants (Astros won 11-2 on Tuesday, behind Gerrit Cole). The Astros will now open a seven-game road trip Thursday with the first of four games with the Cleveland Indians. The Indians just completed a 4-4 road trip, which included a 1-2 mark at Houston last weekend, with a two-game interleague sweep in Chicago during which they beat the Cubs 10-1 and 1-0. Both teams reside in first place in their respective division (AL Central and West), with both owning two game advantages over their closest challengers. However, while Houston is an impressive 32-18 (only the Red Sox and Yankees own higher winning percentages), the Indians 24-23 mark has them atop the Central only because no other team in that division owns a winning record! The pitching matchup: Charlie Morton (6-0, 1.94 ERA) takes the mound for Houston, while Mike Clevinger (3-1, 2.87 ERA gets the nod for Cleveland. As noted above, the Astros won two of three games last weekend in Houston, so not surprisingly in this quick rematch, two of the four pitching matchups for this series are identical to two from last weekend. That includes tonight 's matchup. Morton looks to top Cleveland for the second time in seven days, after allowing one run and four hits over seven innings of a 4-1 home victory over the Indians on Friday. Morton has registered 70 strikeouts while issuing only 18 walks in 55 2/3 innings this season and has allowed more than two runs only twice in his nine starts (Astros are 6-3). Morton's win last time out improved him to 1-2 with a 3.93 ERA in three career starts against Cleveland. Clevinger suffered his first loss of the season opposite Morton on Friday, surrendering three runs on eight hits and four walks in 6 1/3 innings. Clevinger has made three career starts against the Astros, going 1-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 15 innings. The pick: The defending World Series champions have picked right up this year from how they finished last year during their impressive march to the winner's circle, when they won 101 games in the regular season. The same cannot be said about the Indians. Cleveland won 102 games last year, including an American League-record 22-game winning streak. However, he Indians were surprisingly eliminated in their Division Series against the Yankees, when they won the first two games, but lost the last three. The hangover from that shockingly quick exit from the 2017 postseason appears to be lingering this year (see above). A huge problem for teh Indians in 2018 has been that after having the best bullpen in the league the last two years, the Indians are last in the American League in bullpen ERA this year. The Indians' 5.65 bullpen ERA is almost three runs higher than their league-leading 2.89 ERA last season. Edge to the Astros and I'll make Houston a 10* play. |
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05-23-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers -168 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The Los Angeles Dodgers saw their four-game winning streak snapped in Monday's 2-1 home loss to the Rockies but they made it five wins in their last six games with Tuesday's 5-3 victor. The rubber match of this three-game series goes tonight, as the 21-27 Dodgers hope to reduce their 4 1/2-game deficit in the National League West behind the first-place 26-23 Rockies with a win. Chris Taylor hit a two-run HR and Yasiel Puig followed with a solo blast during the decisive sixth-inning uprising on Tuesday. The suddenly hot Puig has homered five times in his last eight games, after not homering in his first 28 contests. The Rockies have registered only 10 hits over the first two games of the series and are anticipating that Nolan Arenado soon will arise from a 15-game home-run drought. The pitching matchup: Colorado lefty Kyle Freeland (4-4, 3.17 ERA) gets the nod and will be opposed by LA's Kenta Maeda (3-3, 3.89 ERA). Freeland enters having won three straight decisions, allowing just three runs on 13 hits over 20 innings. He defeated San Francisco in his last outing, allowing one run on five hits over 6 2/3 innings. Freeland went 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA in four starts against the Dodgers as a rookie last season. Maeda is receiving an extra day of rest after a stellar effort in his last start, when he gave up two hits over eight scoreless innings against Miami last Thursday in 7-0 win. Maeda is 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA in seven career appearances (five starts) versus the Rockies. The pick: The Rockies will be back in Denver on Friday night against the Reds, after wrapping up their latest road trip tonight in LA. Despite Tuesday night's 5-3 defeat at Dodger Stadium, the Rockies are 19-12 away from Coors Field and no team in baseball has more road victories (note: the Rockies have also played a major league-most 31 road games).However, we are starting to see LA come around. After all, they have won the NL West the last five seasons. Yes, the Dodgers are just 9-14 at home in 2018 but let's not forget that they were 57-24 at home last season (most home wins in all of MLB). Make LA an 8* play. |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 206 | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics haven't lost at home this postseason, so to say it was shocking that Boston won Games 1 and 2 at home would not be fair. However, it was fair to say that tha manoer in whcih the Celtics won those first two games, was. Cleveland dropped the first two games by an average of 19.0 PPG and even a monster Game 2 effort by LeBron James (42 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists) in Game 2 couldn't prevent a 13-point loss. However, the Cavaliers have recovered to even the Eastern Conference Finals at two games apiece with back-to-back wins at home. Cleveland steamrolled Boston 116-86 in Game 3 and follwoed with convincing 111-102 win in Game 4. LBJ was 17-of-28 shooting in Game 4 as he topped 40 points (44) for the second time in a three-game span. Veteran swingman Kyle Korver (14 points, three blocked shots) is 13-of-20 shooting with eight three-pointers over the past three games, while center Tristan Thompson (13 points & 12 rebounds) enjoyed his best showing of the series and third double-double of the postseason. Boston head coach Brad Stevens didn't get too wound up over Monday's 111-102 setback as he simplified the task staring at his team. "It's a best two of three to go to the NBA Finals. It doesn't get much better than that," Stevens said in Monday's postgame press conference. "In this deal, it's a blast to have to grit your teeth, get up off the mat and go after it again. That's part of what makes these guys on both sides special." Cleveland: There is always LeBron when we are talking about the Cavs but Korver's been terrific coming off the bench the last three games (see above), plus starting guards Hill and JR Smith stepped up at home. Can they do so on the road? A worry may be PF Kevin Love, who averaged just 11 points on 7-of-24 shooting in the two victories, after averaging 19.5 points in the two losses in Boston. He is shooting just 37.5 percent in the series. Boston: The Celtics won their two home games by average of 19 points but lost by an average of 19.5 points in their two road games. That's the story of Boston's 2018 postseason, going 9-0 at home but 1-6 on the road. "We missed a bunch of easy opportunities," shooting guard Jaylen Brown said of the Game 4 loss. "We made some bad turnovers and things like that. But we still had opportunities to get into the game and to win." Brown is averaging 20.3 points in the series and his 25-point effort in Game 4 was his third 20-point outing in the East finals. The pick: Neither team is completely healthy. Both Kevin Love and Jeff Green are playing with minor injuries for the Cavs, while the Celtics have been without Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Daniel Theis for the entire postseason, plus are also without backup point guard Shane Larkin. I guess the question is, "Did the Cavs figure things out while winning Games 3 and 4?" Cleveland did three games at Boston by an average of 30 points in last season's conference finals and were also 9-3 at TD Garden the last four regular seasons. However, this year's Cleveland team has often been burned by its poor defense and Boston's 9-0 home playoff record is hard to ignore. I'll make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-23-18 | Capitals v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 37 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Capitals won Games 1 and 2 at Tampa to open a 2-0 series lead. However, the Lightning "returned the favor" by winning Games 3 and 4 in Washington, before taking Game 5 at home, for three straight wins. However, the Caps were able to put past playoff failures behind them with a 3-0 home victory in Game 6, setting up this Game 7 showdown, with the winner advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals, where the expansion Vegas Golden Knights await. The Capitals sit just one win away from their first trip to the Stanley Cup Finals since 1998 but the team owns a 4-11 record overall and a 1-3 mark on the road all-time in Game 7s. In contrast, the Lightning are 5-2 (3-0 at home) in deciding contests. Washington: “I don’t think there’s (another) team I’ve ever had that I’d want to go into Game 7 with,” head coach Barry Trotz, who has coached 107 playoff contests in his career and 1,524 in the regular season, told reporters. “This team has done a lot of special things this year. It’s grown. It continues to do that. What an opportunity. … We’ll see if we can earn the right to keep playing.” Washington outhit the Lightning 39-19, many of those leading to its 17 takeaways in Game 6. Right wing T.J. Oshie scored two of the three goals Monday and has seven points in the series while Nicklas Backstrom set up a pair of tallies for his first points in three games since returning from a hand injury. Center Evgeny Kuznetsov had an assist Monday to extend his point streak to nine games and has 23 overall - a franchise playoff record. Tampa Bay: The Lightning will have to raise their level of play after being outshot by an average of more that 10 per game in the series and take pressure off goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has turned aside 131 of 139 attempts while winning three of the last four contests. Tampa Bay has been outshot 209-145 in the series, managing only 24 in Game 6, and have not scored a goal since 33 seconds into the second period of Game 5 on Saturday night. Right wing Nikita Kucherov leads the team with 17 points in the playoffs but he and captain Steven Stamkos each managed just one shot on net in Game 6 while combining for a minus-3 rating. The pick: Can Washington superstar Aex Ovechkin finally take his team to the Cup finals for the first time in his tenure? Or, will Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos (four goals in the series) make it for the second time in four seasons? This is a tough call. Can one really trust Washington? Then again, maybe this is finally the Caps' year. What I don't see is a low-scoring game. Tampa Bay is the NHL's highest-scoring team (3.47 GPG) and Washington ranks 9th at 3.18 GPG. The Caps are 28-20 to the over on the road and Tampa Bay 29-19 to the over at home. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-23-18 | Orioles -125 v. White Sox | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago White Sox lost 3-2 in their series opener to the Baltimore Orioles on Monday but turned the tables on Tuesday, scoring three runs in the eighth inning en route a similar 3-2 win. This four-game series between two struggling teams (the Orioles are 15-33 and the White Sox are 14-31) continues tonight. Baltimore is 2-4 on its 11-game road trip, while Tuesday's victory was Chicago's fourth win in its last six contests. The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (1-5, 6.56 ERA) takes the mound for Baltimore and he will be opposed by Chicago's Dylan Covey (0-1, 6.00 ERA). Cobb spent his first six seasons with the Tampa Bat Rays but agreed to a four-year, $57 million contract during spring training with the Orioles. This will be Cobb's his eighth start, as he tries to turn around an ugly beginning with his new team. He has given up an eye-popping 59 hits in 35 2/3 innings while striking out just 19. He has allowed a homer in all but two of his starts. Cobb has lost both of his previous career starts against Chicago, getting tagged for 12 runs and 17 hits over eight innings (13.50 ERA). Covey will be making his second start of 2018, tonight. He lost his only previous outing of 2018 back on April 28, when he yielded four runs on seven hits and three walks in six innings at Kansas City in a 5-2 loss. Covey still remains in search of his first major-league win. He made 18 appearances (12 starts) in 2017, going 0-7 with a 7.71 ERA. Covey's only career start against the Orioles came on May 6, 2017, when he surrendered six runs and 10 hits in four innings at Baltimore. The pick: This is a matchup between two bad teams but note that Covey is 0-8 with a 7.58 ERA in 13 starts (Sox are 4-9) and six relief appearances. Sure, Cobb has been an underachiever, but after surrendering at least five runs in each of his three April outings, he has allowed three ERs or less in each of his four starts in May. Make Baltimore a 10* play. |
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05-23-18 | Diamondbacks +106 v. Brewers | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona D'backs shocked most in MLB by going 93-69 last season, 'flipping' their record from the previous season, when the team went 69-93. Arizona was 24-11 in games played through May 8 to open the current season but then lost six in a row before ending its skid with a 2-1 home win over Milwaukee. The one-run victory did little to 'stop the bleeding,' as Arizona is now back on its second six-game losing streak of the month, after losing the first two of a three-game series with the Brewers. The D'backs scored a total of just nine runs during their first six-game slide and the offense remains in the tank this time around as well, scored only 10 runs. Overall, Arizona has failed to score more than two runs in 10 of its last 12 games. Meanwhile, Milwaukee won two of three in Arizona as part of its current 9-3 streak and now looks to complete a three-game sweep of the stumbling Diamondbacks on Wednesday afternoon, as the Brewers go for a road sweep. They have won four straight series to ascend to the top of the National League Central while also knocking the Arizona Diamondbacks out of first place in the NL West. After mashing three HRs in a 4-2 series-opening win, the Brewers could only muster a sacrifice fly by Domingo Santana on Tuesday but that stood up in a 1-0 victory. The pitching matchup: The Diamondbacks will send Zack Godley (4-3, 3.78 ERA) to the mound, while the Brewers send lefty Brent Suter (3-3, 4.72 ERA) to the hill. Godley enters this contest on a four-game winless streak (he is 0-2 and the team is 1-3). He permitted three runs (one earned) on only four hits over six innings his last time out against the Mets (a 3-1 Arizona loss), as he continued to struggle with his control. Godley walked four batters against New York and has allowed 22 over his last seven starts. However, Godley has been superb in four appearances (three starts) against Milwaukee, posting a 2-0 record and 1.42 ERA. As for Suter, he is coming off his longest outing of 2018, picking up an 8-3 victory at Minnesota on Friday by holding the Twins to one run on five hits while striking out a season-high six in 5 2/3 innings. His previous three appearances -- two in relief and a start on short rest -- came in a span of nine days. The pick: Godley opened the season 4-1 with a 3.81 ERA through his first five starts but has gone 0-2 with a 3.75 mark in his last four outings. Can he get it turned around? Can the D'backs? The Brewers have won nine of their last 12 games and are 13-6 this month to move 11 games above .500. They've won 30 games, most among National League teams, and reached that mark faster than any other team in franchise history. However, while the team's ptchwork pitching staff has overachieved, Suter has been a weak link. Suter began the year in the rotation, then moved to bullpen when Wade Miley was brought off the DL. However, when Miley was hurt again, Suter moved back into the rotation.Arizona's lineup should I(will?) get to him here, as he is allowing the opposition to hit .321 with runners on base and .304 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors were impressive in winning Game 1 of this series but the team's lackluster performance in Game 2 raised some questions. In particular, many speculated that star PG Stephen Curry, who averaged just 17 points and went a combined 2-of-13 from three-point range, wasn't completely healthy. However, the Warriors emphatically answered all of their doubters with a dominating 126-85 victory in Game 3. Curry found his shot during a third-quarter outburst on Sunday and finished with a game high 35 points on 13-of-23 shooting (on threes). Curry went only 3-of-11 from the floor in the first half on Sunday but then went 7-of-7 in the third quarter while scoring 18 points, sparking a run that put the game out of reach. The 41-point victory was the largest in franchise history during the postseason, topping a 39-point win -- 85-46 -- by the Philadelphia Warriors against the St. Louis Bombers on April 6, 1948 (that's a LONG tiome ago!). As Game 4 approaches, it's top-seeded Houston Rockets, who are now facing similar questions. They will attempt to bounce back from an embarrassing performance and even the Western Conference finals at two wins apiece. The Rockets scored 127 points on 51.1 percent shooting while winning Game 2 but suffered the worst playoff loss in franchise history in Game 3, shooting 39.5% (including 11 of 34 on threes) plus attempted only a modest 13 FTs. Houston: Head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters he was unhappy with the way his team played in Game 3. "Played soft, actually. I mean, you can't do that with these guys. These guys are good."Houston not only shot poorly (see above) but the Rockets committed 20 turnovers that led to 28 points. "We weren't as aggressive as we needed to be," Rockets star James Harden, who agreed with his coach's assessment of the team, told reporters. "We started off the game pretty solid, and then we let them gain some confidence to end the first quarter. But just defensively, they didn't feel us, and it showed tonight." After scoring 27 points in the Game 2 win, backup guard Eric Gordon scored just 11 points on Sunday, shooting 4 of 13 (2-8 on threes). Starting forwards Tucker and Ariza combined fior 41 points in the Game 2 win but each scored just six points in the Game 3 blowout. Harden had 41 points in Game 1 but after scoring 27 points in Game 2, had just 20 points in Game 3. PG Chris Paul, playing in his first-ever conference final, is a woeful 5-of-20 from three-point range in the series. Golden State: Curry, who had missed 17 of his 20 three-point attempts through the first 10 quarters of the series, sent the Warriors' home crowd into a frenzy by making 4 of 5 in the second half Sunday. en route to 35 points. Durant had a modest 25 points but is averaging 33.3 points on 52.9 percent shooting in the series. Draymond Green continues to play the role of the "Great Disruptor," finishing with a modest 10 points but also 17 rebounds and six assists, while serving as the key to the team's much-improved defensive effort. The pick: The Warriors' 41-point Game 3 win gives them a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series but it also gave them an NBA-record 16 straight playoff wins at home. A key factor figures to be what I touched on earlier. Important members of the James Harden/Chris Paul supporting cast, Gordon, Tucker and Ariza, combined for 23-of-33 shooting and contributed 68 points in Houston's 127-105 series-evening home win in Game 2. However, they went a combined 8 of 24 and 23 points in the blowout Game 3. The loss was the Rockets' fourth of the postseason but they have rebounded with wins after each of the first three, romping by an average of 20.7 PPG. Of course, this time, they'll be up against a Warriors team that has been to three straight NBA Finals (winning twice). Take the points and make Houston a 10* play. |
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05-22-18 | Pirates -130 v. Reds | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
The 26-20 Pittsburgh Pirates look to snap a three-game losing streak heading into Tuesday's opener of a three-game series against the 16-32 Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The Pirates' recent slump has seen them fall to fourth in the NL Central but in this tightly-bunched division, Pittsburgh is still only two games back of the first-place Brewers. The Reds have played much better since firing manager Bryan Price but after losing three of four versus the Chicago Cubs over the weekend (were outscored 16-1 over the final two games of a series), the Reds have lost touch with the other four teams in their division (sit 13 games back). The Pirates took three of four from the Reds back on April 5-8 at PNC Park and open this series 11-11 on the road in 2018, while the Reds are just 7-18 at home, so far. The pitching matchup: Jameson Taillon (2-3, 3.97 ERA) will take the mound for Pittsburgh, while Matt Harvey (0-2, 6.17 ERA) makes his third start for Cincy, after joining the Reds from the Mets. Taillon saw his winless skid extend to seven outings (he is 0-3 and the team is 3-4) on Wednesday, after allowing a pair of solo HRs and three walks over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision versus the Chicago White Sox. Taillon is 2-2 with a 4.23 ERA in eight career starts against the Reds (giving up 47 hits in 44 2/3 innings) but did strike out seven as Pittsburgh breezed to a 5-0 romp of Cincinnati back on April 8, of this season. Harvey has worked a pair of four-inning outings since being acquired from the New York Mets but saw his run of no-decisions extend to six on Wednesday after allowing three runs on seven hits at San Francisco (note: last four appearances for the Mets were relief stints). "It's been a while since I've felt stronger throughout a game, so getting up toward 80 pitches and still feeling strong and noticing the ball coming out the way it was it's definitely a big positive," Harvey told reporters. Harvey is 1-1 in five career meetings with Pittsburgh but owns a 5.46 ERA. The pick: The Reds are a poor home team (7-18, minus-$1098) and own a 4-18 record versus NL Central rivals. In contrast, the Pirates sport a 10-3 mark against NL Central foes. Sure, Taillon hasn't gotten a decision in seven consecutive starts but he comes into this contest with a 1.98 ERA in 13 2/3 innings this month. Pittsburgh won three of four against Cincinnati back in early April by a 28-12 margin and I'll make them a 10* in the series opener, tonight. |
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05-22-18 | Tigers v. Twins -151 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins improved to 3-4 on their nine-game homestand with a 4-2 triumph in Monday's series opener against the Detroit Tigers. The victory puts Minnesota in position to end an 0-3-1 slide in home series not abbreviated by inclement weather by winning here, or in Wednesday's finale (both would be nice). Detroit managed only three hits as it suffered its fourth consecutive loss after beginning its seven-game road trip with a victory in Seattle. The Twins are just 20-23 but in the sad-sack AL Central, sit just one game back of the first-place Indians. The Tigers check in at 20-27, but are only two games back of the Twins and three back of the Indians. The pitching matchup: Detroit lefty Matthew Boyd (2-3, 3.19 ERA) will square off against Minnesota's Lance Lynn (1-4, 7.47 ERA). Boyd has pitched fairly well this season and comes off defeating the Mariners 4-3 at home on May 12, allowing three runs and three hits in six innings, before settling for a no-decision in Seattle on Thursday after giving up two runs and six hits over six innings (Tigers won that one too, 3-2). Boyd has made 11 career starts versus Minnesota, going 5-2 with a 3.98 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 63 1/3 innings. Lynn is coming off his shortest outing of the season, a three-inning effort against his former St. Louis club in which he took the loss after yielding three runs on four hits and four walks. Lynn has struggled with his control this year, issuing at least four free passes in five of his eight turns. Lynn has surrendered six runs and 15 hits over 12 1/3 innings while going 1-1 in two career starts versus Detroit. The pick: Boyd has six quality starts in eight starts already this season, along with a team-leading 1.06 WHIP and 41 strikeouts in 48 innings. Things haven't gone nearly as well for Twins starter Lance Lynn. He signed to a one-year contract late in spring training (note: he turned down a $17.4 million qualifying offer from St. Louis) and has struggled out of the gate with that 7.47 ERA, a 2.04 WHIP and an opponents BAA of .313. However, Lynn spent his last six seasons with the Cardinals and was good enough to go 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA. My bet says, he gets things turned around. Why not start right here? Make the Twins an 8* play. |
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05-22-18 | Yankees -157 v. Rangers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -157 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Yankees opened a three-game series in Arlington against the Texas Rangers with a 10-5 victory. Rookie second baseman Gleyber Torres homered in the second and sixth innings to become the second-youngest player (21 years, 159 days) in club history to hit at least two HRs in one game, trailing only Hall-of-Famer Mickey Mantle (20, 296). New York hit five HRs in all, marking the first time in team history it has connected on at least four long balls in three straight contests and the first time since the 2011 Rangers any team had done so. Texas managed to get three HRs from the bottom of its lineup but that production was not nearly enough to keep the Rangers from falling to 18-31, including 7-17 at home. The Yankees own MLB's best overall record at 31-13 and will aim for a fourth consecutive victory against the host Texas Rangers on Tuesday night. The pitching matchup: Domingo German (0-1, 4.26 ERA) gets the nod for the Yankees and he will be opposed by Texas lefty Cole Hamels (2-4, 3.48 ERA). German will being making his first career road start, after two drastically different results at home. German struck out nine over six hit-less innings against Cleveland on May 6 but then surrendering six runs on six hits and three walks in another no-decision on May 12 versus Oakland. The veteran Hamels was scratched from his last scheduled start due to neck stiffness but is expected to take the mound for the first time since May 11, when he yielded just one hit and three walks over six scoreless innings in a 1-0 win at Houston. The four-time All-Star seemingly has settled into a bit of a groove after beginning the season 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA, as he has gone 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA over his last four outings. Hamels is 1-2 with a 3.24 ERA in four career starts versus New York. The pick: The Yanks are 2-0 in German's two starts this season and he has not given up a run in two road relief appearances, spanning seven innings. Some more good news is, he is holding left-handed hitters to a .163 average as he faces Texas for the first time. I noted above that Hamels owns a 1.93 ERA over his last four outings but will add here that Texas has gone just 1-3 in those starts. Very hard to not favor New York here, as the Yankees come in first in all of MLB in runs scored (5.87 per), OPS (.812) and HRs (72), while the Rangers rank 22nd in scoring (4.22 per), 29th in team BA (.225) and 27th in OPs (.667). Then there is Texas' woeful 7-17 home mark, in which the Rangers are being outscored 6.08-to-4.00 RPG. Make the Yankees an 8* play. |
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05-21-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers -173 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -173 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Dodgers fell to 16-26 after suffering six straight losses to division cellar-dwellers Cincinnati and Miami to match their worst 42-game start since leaving Brooklyn for Los Angeles in 1958. LA finally ended its skid with a 7-0 victory over the Marlins on Wednesday. The five-time defending NL champions then showed their grit by marching into Washington and completed a three-game weekend sweep of the Nationals (Nats had won 13 of their previous 15), despite injuries wreaking havoc on their rotation. LA's mini-surge has left it five games out of first place in the NL West and 4 1/2 behind second-place Colorado, which settled for a series split in San Francisco over the weekend , despite winning the first two games in convincing fashion. The Rockies still remain one of the majors' best road teams despite the consecutive losses with an 18-11 away record, including an 8-3 mark in May. The pitching matchup: Colorado will send German Marquez (2-5, 5.15 ERA) to teh mound to be opposed by LA's Walker Buehler (2-1, 2.67). Marquez had the misfortune of pitching opposite Jordan Lyles and his perfect-game bid last Tuesday in San Diego, taking the loss after serving up a two-run HR to Eric Hosmer while allowing six hits over five innings. Marquez has struggled out of the gate on a regular basis, posting a 13.50 ERA in the the first inning. He made both of his career starts versus the Dodgers last year, giving up seven runs - five earned - over 10 innings (4.50 ERA) in a pair of no-decisions (Rockies were 1-1). Buehler is a rookie and he encountered his first rough outing in five big-league starts Wednesday in Miami, failing to factor in the decision after surrendering five runs - four earned - while recording seven strikeouts in five innings. He had not permitted more than two runs in any start prior to the outing, giving up a total of four in 22 innings while striking out 27. Buehler has not yielded a HR in either of his first two starts at Dodger Stadium, where he has gone 0-1 (team is 1-1), despite a 1.64 ERA. The pick: I strongly favor Buehler over Marquez and while the Dodgers are just 8-13 at home in 2018, let's n0t forget that they were 57-24 at home last season (most home wins in all of MLB). Make LA an 8* play. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-21-18 | Lightning +115 v. Capitals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Capitals won four straight over Columbus in the first round, after losing the first two games of that series at home. The Caps then lost Game 1 at home to the Pens, before winning four of the next five in that series, beating Pittsburgh for just the second time in 11 all-time postseason series against their rivals. Washington then posted two straight road victories to open the Eastern Conference finals at Tampa Bay and finally, most felt as if the team's past demons had been exorcised. However, we are talking about the Washington Capitals, right? One week after taking a 2-0 series lead over the Lightning, the Caps are fighting for survival as they get set to host the Tampa Bay Lightning for Game 6 on Monday night. The Capitals have dropped three straight, including Saturday’s 3-2 setback in Tampa Bay,with the Lightning moving within a victory of their third-ever trip to the Stanley Cup finals, as as well as a second in four years. The Capitals did battle back in Game 5 after falling behind 3-0, out-shooting Tampa Bay 26-9 in the final 40 minutes, but they fell one goal shy. Tampa Bay: The Lightning have won five of six on the road in the playoffs and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been outstanding in the team's three straight wins over teh Caps, turning aside 100 of the 106 shots he has faced ((.943 SP) to improve to 11-4 in the postseason. “We have a lot of unfinished business. This isn’t even close to being over,” Tampa Bay right wing Ryan Callahan told reporters. “This last game is definitely the hardest. … To go in their building and try to close them out, it’s going to be tough.” Callahan, along with "fourth line" mates Cedric Paquette and Chris Kunitz, have played a big part defensively against the Alex Ovechkin unit the last three games and contributed two goals and two assists in Game 5. Right wing Nikita Kucherov notched an assist in Game 5 to take over the team lead with 17 points, one better than captain Steven Stamkos and fellow center Brayden Point, while left wing Ondrej Palat has at least a point in three straight contests and 12 overall. Washington: A lot of people counted us out when we were down 0-2 (to Columbus) in the first round. Things got hard in the last series (against Pittsburgh) and we could have melted, and we just kept playing,” Washington defenseman Matt Niskanen told reporters. “So that’s what we’ve got to do again. Bring our best effort for Game 6 at home, win a game, and then we’ll go from there.” Washington gave up a goal in the first minute in each of the first two periods Saturday, after trailing through the opening 20 minutes in both Game 3 and 4 at home, forcing it to chase the Lightning most of all three contests. “ Center Evgeny Kuznetsov has scored in four consecutive games and owns at least a point in eight straight to break the franchise record for points in a single postseason (22). "It's OK," Washington captain Alex Ovechkin said. "We're going to play better in Game 6 and we have (to) bounce back and come here and play a Game 7 and that's it." The pick: In the conference era, which dates back to 1974-75, only two teams in 41 occasions have won the first two games of a conference final or league semifinal and failed to win the series; the Montreal Canadiens in 1984 and Boston Bruins in 1991. I expect the Caps do join that list (one which no teams wants to be a member), so why wait to blow a Game 7? Why not lose right here in the front of the team's hometown fans? Make Tampa Bay a 10* play. |
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05-21-18 | Padres v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals last won a baseball game back on Sunday, May 13 (6-4 at Arizona). That victory gave the Nats 13 wins in their previous 15 games. However, Washington then saw one game suspended and two more postponed due to Mother Nature to open last week. The Nats then lost three in a row Friday-Sunday to the LA Dodgers to fall four games off the NL East lead with a 24-21 record. Washington will now welcome the 20-28 San Diego Padres to town for a three-game series beginning Monday night. When the Washington Nationals visited San Diego from May 7-9, they won the first two games of a three-game series to move within 1 1/2 games of the National League East lead. At the time, the Nationals were on a bit of a run and the Padres were reeling with a 13-24 record. However, two weeks after that series, the Padres and Nationals meet again in Washington, D.C. and the fortunes of the two teams have changed a bit. Since winning that series finale at Petco Park to avoid being swept by the Nationals, the Padres have gone 7-4 and are riding a three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Nationals have gone 4-4, after losing a third straight game to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday The pitching matchup: It's a 'battle of lefties' on Monday night, as the Padres' Robbie Erlin (1-2, 3.46 ERA) squares off against the Nats' Gio Gonzalez (4-2, 2.36 ERA). Erlin will be making his second spot start this season, as fellow lefty Joey Lucchesi nurses a hip injury. Erlin's first start of 2018 came way back on April 16 in a 10-3 loss to the Dodgers. Erlin lasted just three innings while allowing six runs (five earned) on seven hits. The bad news for San Diego (and good news for the Nats) is that Erlin has met the Nationals twice in his career (both at Nationals Park), where he has given up 17 runs, 19 hits and six walks with six strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings (that's a 16.39 ERA!). As for Gonzalez, he was saddled with the first of his two straight no-decisions on May 9 despite allowing one run on five hits over six innings against San Diego. He then received the same fate six days later, although he issued four walks to drive up his pitch count (111) against the New York Yankees in a suspended game. Gonzalez owns a 3-2 mark with a 3.21 ERA in seven career appearances against San Diego. The pick: Gonzalez is pitching well and deserves to pick up a win here. However, while Erlin's numbers (albeit in just two appearances) are awful against the Nats, Washington scored just seven runs in losing three games to the Dodgers this weekend at home. Washington batted only .149 in losing three straight to LA. What's more, Washington's top-two power hitters, Bryce Harper and Matt Adams, are slumping. Since leaving San Diego on May 9, Adams has hit only .143 and Harper is hitting .125 in the last eight games with just one HR and three RBI. Make the Under a 10* |
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05-20-18 | Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians and Astros play the rubber match of their three-game series tonight in Houston on ESPN. The Indians have homered in a season-high 10 straight games and took Saturday's contest 5-4. Corey Kluber struck out 10 batters over seven strong innings Saturday, giving him an AL-leading seventh win of the year. Kluber is the second starter in MLB after Washington's Max Scherzer, to reach the seven-win mark. Meanwhile, third baseman Jose Ramirez had two hits and improved to 10-for-22 with a pair of HRs and seven RBI during his six-game hitting streak. The Astros saw their three-game winning streak come to an end despite homers by Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and Marwin Gonzalez. Despite just a 22-22 record, the Indians sit atop the AL Central by 2 1/2 games. Meanwhile, the 29-18 Astros lead the majors in run differential at plus-96 and enter Sunday two games up on the second-place Mariners in the AL West. The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (5-2, 3.66 ERA) will head to the mound tonight for Cleveland, opposed by Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. (5-2, 3.63 ERA). Carrasco won 19 games last year and is off to a solid start in 2017. He is pitching on an extended five days’ rest after his last start on May 14 at Detroit, where he allowed three runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 6-3 loss. Carrasco has had a heavy workload, having thrown at least 110 pitches in four of his last seven starts, including three in a row. The 31-year-old owns a 3-1 record and 2.67 ERA in six career games (five starts) versus Houston, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two outings at Minute Maid Park. McCullers turned in a solid outing but took the loss against the Los Angeles Angels last Monday, allowing two runs on four hits over six innings. He has 58 strikeouts in 52 innings and has only given up three HRs, including none in his last five starts. McCullers struggled in his only previous start against Cleveland, giving up five runs over five innings in a 7-6 loss on April 26, 2017. The pick: This is a pretty good pitching matchup and a check of the two teams' season records reveals that the Indians are 8-14 to the under in all road games so far in 2018, while the Astros are 9-15 to the under at home this season. Why over-think things? Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors took away the homecourt advantage from the Houston Rockets in their best-of-seven Western Conference finals with a solid 119-106 win in Game 1. However, while many seemed to think "that was all she wrote" for the Rockets in this series, Houston made a strong statement with a 22-point victory in Game 2. However, the series now shifts to Oracle Arena for the next two games, where the Warriors own a 15-game home winning streak in the playoffs (the streak has equaled the Chicago Bulls in 1990-91 as the longest streak in NBA playoff history). In a showdown of the league's two highest scoring offenses, the team that shot the best prevailed in each of the first two meetings. Led by Kevin Durant going 14 of 27 from the floor in a 37-point effort (plus Thompson's 28 points), the Warriors outshot the Rockets 52.5 percent to 45.9 in the Game 1 win. The Rockets then countered in Game 2 with a more balanced approach, with Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza combining to go 23 of 33 (69.7%), accounting for 68 of Houston's 127 points in the win. Houston shot 51.1 percent, while Golden State shot 45.9%. Houston: The Rockets didn't win 65 games (seven more than Golden State) in the regular season by accident. Houston sees an opportunity to take back control of the series and insists it is unfazed as it enters two straight games in Oakland. "The challenge is you're playing Golden State," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "That's why they've won 15 in a row, not because of the building, but because they're good. I mean, everybody, all these players are used to playing in hostile environments or loud or whatever. I mean, it helps a little bit. Sometimes you feed off the energy also from the other crowd. So you try to take them out as soon as you can and take out the crowd, but they're a good basketball team." PG Chris Paul had 16 points, six assists and three steals in the Game 2 win while fighting through a calf issue that he says will not hold him back for Sunday's tilt. Paul has outscored Curry 39-34 in the series and been more efficient, but also has struggled from long range, shooting just 3 of 12 on three-pointers. After a 41-point effort in the Game 1 loss, Harden had a more modest 27 in Game 2 plus was only 3 of 15 on threes. Eric Gordon led the way in Game 2 by scoring 27 points while making 6-of-9 from three-point range in Game 2 after averaging just 9.7 points and hitting 5-of-18 from beyond the arc over his previous three contests. Tucker scored 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting in Game 2, after going 35 minutes without a field goal in Game 1 plus Ariza was 7-of-9 from the floor (19 points). Golden State: KD has been an unstoppable force so far (he's averaged 37.5 points on 55.1 percent shooting in the series) but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson struggled to shoot a combined 10-for-30 from the floor. "I've gone 0-for-11 before shooting 3s and 1-for-8, whatever the case is," Curry told reporters Friday. "I always shoot that next shot with the optimism and confidence that it's going in. So, you can work on stuff between practices and games to get your rhythm, just seeing the ball going in and working on your mechanics, but [I'll] never lose confidence in myself. That'll never change." Curry is 2-of-13 in the series on threes and Thompson, after an excellent Game 1, shot 3-of-11 overall, scoring just eight points in the Game 2 loss. The pick: The Warriors lost just once in four playoff series en route to the championship last year (16-1), suffered their third loss of the 2018 postseason in Game 2. They have rebounded to win by a total of 34 points in the game after each of their first two losses. However, the Rockets had the best road record in the NBA during the regular season (31-10), and have won three of four on the road in their first two playoff series. "I'm feeling great," Curry said in the aftermath of the Game 2 loss. How do we really know, though. Curry missed Golden State's 4-1 victory over San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs and then the opener against New Orleans in the second round with a sprained left MCL. He has started the last five games but has been well below his usual high standard in the first two against the Rockets, averaging 17.0 points while missing 11 of 13 three-point shots. The Rockets have attacked Curry on defense, prompting many to question the former two-time Most Valuable Player's health. The Warriors will be hosting a Game 3 for the first time since 2014 and they lost that game 98-96 to the Los Angeles Clippers, with Paul contributing 15 points and 10 assists to the winning effort. Take the points and make Houston a 10* play. |
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05-20-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets -137 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -137 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vegas Golden Knights have seized every opportunity during their spectacular inaugural season and now stand one win from the Stanley Cup finals entering Game 5 of the Western Conference finals Sunday at the Winnipeg Jets. Vegas lost Game 1 by a 4-2 score but have ripped off three straight wins by riding the outstanding goaltending of Marc-Andre Fleury. Vegas has scored fewer than 90 seconds after a Winnipeg goal four times in the series and the Golden Knights have netted the game’s opening tally in winning each of the last three games. "The fact we always bounce back right away when they get (a goal) and keep the momentum on our side, I think has been the key to the series,” Fleury told reporters after Vegas captured Game 4 with a 3-2 victory on Reilly Smith’s go-ahead goal with 6:58 to play. Winnipeg has played well for long stretches of each of the past two games, only to come away with two road losses that has put its season on the brin. Vegas: The Golden Knight's top line of William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Smith again played well in Game 4, combining for two goals and two assists. That was more than enough for Fleury, who made 35 saves overall and robbed Winnipeg several times in facing 27 shots in the final two periods. Fleury has been terrific all postseason long (1.72 GAA and .945 SP) but one must add the Vegas has excelled in the past two games by hounding the Jets in the neutral zone, finishing Game 4 with 24 takeaways and blocking 25 shots. Winnipeg: “In our minds, this series is far from over,” Jets defenseman Tyler Myers told reporters after Game 4, in which he scored the game-tying goal early in the third period. “We’re going back home for the next one and we’ll focus on that.” Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck made 26 saves but allowed three goals in losing his third game in a row. The Jets can't be happy that his save percentage over the last three games (all losses) is .895. The pick: Maybe it's just silly to step in front of Vegas at this point but the Jets are an outstanding team. They were second to only Nashville in total points during the regular season (114 to 117) and then won a hard-fought seven-game series victory over Nashville in the conference semifinals (won three of four games played in Nashville!). In each of the two games played in Las Vegas this series, Winnipeg applied waves of pressure in the final two periods and outshot the Golden Knights. However, Fleury never 'blinked.' Here in Winnipeg, where the Jets are 37-10-2 this season (outscoring opponents 3.69-to-2.43), that dynamic changes. Make Winnipeg an 8* play. |
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05-20-18 | Yankees v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Gary Sanchez homered twice among four hits to lead a 14-hit attack (including a season-high five HRs) in Saturday's 8-3 triumph for the Yankees, evening the team's three-game series with the Royals at a game apiece. Aaron Hicks had an inside-the-park homer and scored twice for New York, which has now won 20 of its last 24 and owns MLB's best record at 29-13. Kansas City opened the series with a 5-2 win on Friday but will host the rubber match of the set with a 14-31 record, leaving them with a better record than only the sad-sack White Sox in the AL. The Yankees will try to extend their streak of series wins to eight when they take on the host Royals on Sunday, plus hope to improve to 9-1 against American League Central foes here in 2018. The pitching matchup: The Yankees give the ball to struggling righty Sonny Gray (2-3, 6.39 ERA), while the Royals turn to left-hander Eric Skoglund (1-3, 5.58 ERA) in the series finale. Gray allowed two runs and four hits in six innings in back-to-back starts, before getting roughed up in a loss to Oakland on May 11. He surrendered five runs on a season-high nine hits - including two home runs - in the outing. Gray will be well rested on Sunday, as he has not pitched in eight days because of the schedule. The Yankees had days off Monday and Thursday, were rained out Wednesday in Washington after getting Tuesday's game suspended following the top of the sixth inning. Gray is 1-2 in four career starts against the Royals but owns a solid 2.77 ERA. Skoglund is off his longest start of the year, having allowed two runs in 7 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay on Monday (Royals lost 2-1). He lasted at least seven innings in two of his four home starts but was limited to 4 2/3 innings in the other two at Kauffman Stadium, giving up five runs in both of those clunkers. This marks his first career start vs. the Yankees. The pick: Sure, the Yankees own MLB's best record but Gray has had little to do with that. He has struggled all season with a 6.39 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and opponents hitting .284 against him. The Yankees are just 3-5 in his eight starts in 2018 and has pitched five or less innings in five of his eight starts this season. Gray has posted only one victory since April 7 and is 6-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 19 starts since being acquired from the Athletics in a trade on July 31. Clearly, he has not been 'the savior' the Yanks thought he would be. Why not take the 1 1/2 runs with the Royals? Make KC an 8* play. |
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05-19-18 | Tigers v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers have played five times in 2018, with four of the five being decided by one run. Seattle opened a four-game home series with Detroit on Thursday, falling 3-2. However, the Mariners avenged that loss with a dramatic 5-4 victory last night. The Tigers jumped out to a four-run lead but the Mariners scored all five of their runs in an explosive seventh inning to improve to 10-7 in one-run contests this season. The Mariners now own 11 comeback victories on the season, tied for the third-most in the American League. The Tigers are 10-9 in one-run games and one of two teams who have played more such contests than Seattle, pulling into a tie with Tampa Bay for the most in the majors. The four-game set continues Saturday night with the Tigers sitting at 20-24 and the Mariners at 25-19. However, Detroit is just 1 1/2 games back in the AL Central, as no team in that division owns a winning record. Meanwhile, the Mariners are in the AL West, which features the defending world champion Astros, so Seattle sits three games back, despite its much better won-loss mark. The pitching matchup: Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.23 ERA) will take the mound for Detroit, opposed by Seattle lefty James Paxton (2-1, 3.52 ERA). Fiers comes in on a modest two-start winning streak, after allowing just one run on a solo HR and three hits across five innings in throwing a season-high 92 pitches in Monday's 6-3 home win over the Indians. Fiers has not walked more than one batter in any of his seven starts and is averaging a career-low 15.1 pitches per inning. However, in five career starts against Seattle, Fiers owns a 6.00 ERA. Surprisingly, he has yet to lose to the Mariners, going 1-0 with four no-decisions. Paxton followed up his no-hitter at Toronto on May 8 with his fourth consecutive quality start in a no-decision at Detroit on Sunday, allowing three runs on six hits in six innings (Mariners lost 5-4). Paxton reportedly dealt with food poisoning between starts but is 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 28 innings in his last four outings, although Seattle is just 2-2 in those games. He is 2-1 with a 3.41 ERA in six starts against the Tigers. The pick: Paxton came into his own in 2017, as team ace "King Felix" dealt with injuries, going 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA. His 2018 season has already featured a no-hitter in Toronto on May 8, when he became the first Canadian to accomplish the feat in his native country. I've always liked Fiers and as noted above (see for a reminder), these teams have loved playing one-run games in 2018. Make the Under a 10* play.
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers have little margin for error after losing the first two games of this series at Boston. It's not so much that the Celtics won both Game 1 and Game 2, Boston is 9-0 this postseason at TD Garden, but how they won them. Cleveland dropped the first two games by an average of 19.0 PPG and even a monster Game 2 effort by LeBron James (42 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists) on Tuesday couldn't prevent a 13-point loss. "We've got to be tougher, mentally and physically," Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "We've got to come out swinging. We've got to be aggressive. I think we've got to be physical, and we've got to have a physical mindset, you know, that they're coming in, playing tough. They're aggressive, and we've got to match that." That sounds good but the fact is, of the 300 teams to take 2-0 leads in best-of-seven series, 281 won the series. Boston surely doesn't want to provide a glimmer of hope,as the Celtics are well aware that LBJ has led his team to seven straight NBA Finals appearances (the last three years with the Cavs). The Celtics are looking to move one step closer to the franchise's first NBA Finals berth since 2010. "We're going to have to be really focused, really locked in, really consistent," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "It's even harder to communicate on the road. You've got to be great communicating." Boston: Shooting guard Jaylen Brown is back healthy and has been the team's highest scorer in this series with solid back-to-back 23-point outings (17.8 PPG in the playoffs, overall), while rookie SF Jayson Tatum leads the team this postseason at 18.1 PPG. PG Terry Rozier (17.4-5.6-5.6) has filled in for the injured Kyrie Irving admirably and veteran C/PF Al Horford is averaging 17.1-8.4-3.6 this postseason. PF Morris checks in at 12.9 & 5.4 plus reserve guard Marcus Smart (10.5-4.0-5.0) continues to be a presence on both ends of the court. However, he is just 7-of-21 shooting (33.3%) this series, as part of a struggling Boston bench. Also note that Tatum is averaging 13.5 points through two games of this series, after a franchise rookie record stretch of seven straight 20-point outings. Cleveland: It's always mostly about LBJ with this team but with Boston's starting backcourt of Brown and Terry Rozier outscoring the Cavs' starting guards 72-12, Tyronn Lue knows that can't continue. In particular, shooting guard JR Smith is averaging two points on 2-of-16 shooting, including 0-of-7 from three-point range. Then there is PG George Hill, who is averaging four points and 0.5 assists in the series. James was bothered by a strained neck after Game 2 but the extra days of rest figure to leave him near full strength. The Cavs are a veteran team but the bottom line is, only four players remain from the 2016 championship team (James, Kevin Love, JR Smith, and Tristan Thompson) plus Kyle Korver represents the only other current Cavs player on the 2017 Finals team that lost in five games to Golden State. This veteran group lost its composure in the second half of Game 2, blowing an eight-point halftime lead and missing all eight threes in the fourth quarter! The pick: OK, so where are we? Boston may be 9-0 at home in the playoffs but the Celtcis are just 1-4 on the road, with statistical drops in just about every major category when playing away from TD Garden. The Celtics are also a young team missing its two best players, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 5-1 at home this postseason, although they are a 'money-burning' 1-5 ATS. While the Cavs aren't what they once were (remember, Irving used to play for them), but organizationally they are the three-time defending conference champs. Remember that stat which said " of the 300 teams to take 2-0 leads in best-of-seven series, 281 won the series?" Note that of the 19 teams who've made the comeback, two were led by LeBron James. LBJ has topped 40 points five times this postseason and is averaging 33.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.2 assists. "With a little help from his friends," LBJ's Cavs get back in this series with a convincing win. Make Cleveland a 10* play.
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05-19-18 | Capitals v. Lightning -163 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Lightning have dug themselves into a deep hole in their Eastern Conference final series against the Washington Capitals by dropping the first two games of the series at home by a combined score of 10-4 (note: the Capitals had a 7-1 edge in even-strength goals in Games 1 and 2). Tampa Bay came to Washington well aware that a team has not rebounded from down 0-2 to win a conference final since Pittsburgh did so against Boston back in 1991 and in fact, road teams that had taken a 2-0 series lead in the NHL conference finals own an 18-1 series record, all-time. However, everyone knew Washington owned a checkered playoff history. In fact, the Capitals were 0-2 in their playoff history when winning the first two games of a series on the road, including a loss to Tampa Bay in 2003. Right on cue, Tampa Bay responded by winning two in Washington with a red-hot power play (team's power play is 6-for-14 in the series) and brilliant goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy, who stopped 72 of the 76 shots he faced the last two games. Washington: “It’s a missed opportunity,” Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin told reporters about losing both home games. “It is what it is. Nothing we can do. We’re not going to look back. We’re just going to look forward. This group of guys has been in different situations all year and we fight through it.” There was good news coming out of Game 4 for the Caps, as Nicklas Backstrom (hand) returned to the lineup after missing the previous four contests. He recorded four shots and won six of nine faceoffs with a minus-1 rating in 18:51 of ice time. Center Evgeny Kuznetsov scored Thursday for his seventh point of the series and has 21 in the postseason, tying Ovechkin’s franchise record in one playoff season that was set in 2009. Defenseman John Carlson, who has 14 points in the playoffs, was a minus-3 on Thursday and center Lars Eller (five points in the series) has been called for five minor penalties in the last two contests - two leading to power-play goals. Ovechkin has 20 points this postseason in 16 games, after managing 20 combined in 25 contests over the past two years. Tampa Bay: Vasilevskiy has allowed two goals or fewer in eight of 14 playoff games, including the last two and captain Steven Stamkos told reporters after Thursday’s win: “Vasy was there to bail us out. That’s why he’s one of, if not the best, goalie in the world.” Stamkos has scored with the man advantage in each of the last four games and passed Martin St. Louis for the franchise record with 11 power-play goals in the playoffs. Center Brayden Point recorded a goal and an assist in each of the last three games and owns 16 points in the postseason to tie Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov for the team lead - all of them scoring seven and setting up nine. The pick: Tampa Bay tied for the NHL lead with 25 road wins in the regular season but it will need to win a home game to win this series. Home-ice advantage has been a disadvantage in this series, as teh road team has won each game. The Caps are now just 3-5 at home this postseason but enter Game 5 at 7-1 on the road. Overall in the 2018 playoffs, road teams are 40-34, on pace to challenge the NHL record for most postseason wins by a road team (47 in 2012). Does that mean I'm on the Caps? N-O, they are after all, the Caps! Tampa's Vasilevskiy is 'on fire' (see above), while the Caps' Holtby has stopped just 35 of 42 shors (.833) in back-to-back losses, after saving 52 of 56 (.923) in Washington's two wins. "It seems like in this series, the pressure shifts on the home team," said Lightning head coach Jon Cooper, whose team is 5-1 on the road in the playoffs against the New Jersey Devils, Boston Bruins and Capitals. "The big, glaring 0-4 is staring at you. Having said that, I'd rather have Game 5 at home. I believe we'll be a different team than we showed up in Games 1 and 2." I agree. Make Tampa Bay a 10* play.
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05-19-18 | Phillies v. Cardinals -125 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards lost the opener of their four-game home series with the Phillies, 6-2 on Thursday. St. Louis went into Friday's contest having scored three or fewer runs in seven of its previous nine games. but pounded out 15 hits, including three HRs, in a 12-4 Friday win to even the series at a game apiece. It marked only the second time all season the Cardinals have scored in double digits. As for the Phillies, it was their first loss in nine games against an NL Central opponent, as well as being just the Phillies’ second defeat in their last nine games, overall. The Phillies enter Saturday's afternoon contest in St. Louis having homered in 13 straight games! Getting back to St. Louis, the phrase "next man up" is starting to wear on the team. It's been a dizzying week of injuries that has left the Cards minus two starting pitchers, a bevy of relievers, their All-Star catcher and now their young shortstop, Paul DeJong. He broke his hand when hit with a pitch Thursday night (he could be out for up to eight weeks) but minus the guy who started their first 41 games at shortstop, the Cardinals trounced the Phillies 12-4 on Friday night. The Cardinals look to build on one of their best offensive showings of the season when they continue a four-game series against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday afternoon. The pitching matchup: Zach Eflin (1-0, 0.71 ERA) will start for the Phillies, while John Gant (1-1, 4.15 ERA) takes the mound for the Cardinals. The 24-year-old Eflin has been outstanding in his first two big-league starts of the season, allowing one run on seven hits over 12 2/3 innings. He struck out nine in 6 2/3 scoreless frames to beat San Francisco 11-0 on May, before having his last turn in the rotation skipped. Eflin, who is allowing opponents to bat only .159, has never faced the Cardinals. Gant will make a spot start in place of injured ace Carlos Martinez. He has made three relief appearances and one start this season, allowing four runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 6-0 loss to Minnesota on May 7 in his only starting assignment..Gant entered the 2018 season with 27 career appearances, including just nine combined starts with Atlanta in 2016 and St. Louis last year. He is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two games (one start) against the Phillies. The pick: Not sure just what to expect from Gant but I'm not fooled by Eflin's two excellent 2018 starts. He made exactly a 11 starts each of the previous two seasons while posting ERAs of 5.54 and 6.16 plus WHIP's of 1.23 and 1.41, respectively. Make St. Louis an 8* play. |
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05-18-18 | Jets +105 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The expansion Vegas Golden Knights 'exploded' out of the gate and the team's inaugural NHL season just continues to impress. A Game 1 loss at Winnipeg in the Western Conference Finals was not able to slow this team, as led by the outstanding play of veteran goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, Vegas has put together back-to-back victories over the Jets, lifting them to a 2-1 lead over Winnipeg. Fleury made 33 saves in a 4-2 victory in Game 3, surviving relentless pressure from the Jets in pushing the first-year club to within two victories of the Stanley Cup finals, a place Fleury reached with Pittsburgh the past two seasons. Fleury made 30 saves in the team's 3-1 win in Game 2 and after 13 playoff contests, he owns a 1.70 GAA and .945 SP. The Jets looked sloppy and slow in the initial minutes of Game 3 and allowed a goal on a defensive miscue by goaltender Connor Hellebuyck but pounded 16 shots at Fleury in the final 20 minutes and came close to tying the score several times. Now, Winnipeg needs a win or face being down 3-1 when it returns home for Game 5 on Sunday.
Winnipeg: “They’re playing really well because they’re a really good team,” Jets captain Blake Wheeler told reporters after recording two assists in Game 3. “You put yourself in a tough position when you’re down by a couple goals on the road, tough environment against a good team. So, the onus is on us to get off to a better start.” The good news coming out of the Game 3 loss was that Winnipeg did get the dynamic duo from its top line rolling again, as Mark Scheifele scored twice to give him a league-high 14 goals for the playoffs and Wheeler boosted his NHL-best assist total to 17. However, second-line forward Nikolaj Ehlers was scratched with an undisclosed injury and the Jets looked out of sorts, as Hellebuyck got caught behind his net while allowing a goal 12 seconds after Scheifele tied the game in the second period. Vegas: Fleury leads all remaining goaltenders in postseason save percentage and goals against average. He admitted nobody thought Vegas would play this deep into May, telling reporters after Game 3: “It’s been a long season. It’s been a lot of fun to be a part of. Really proud of this team and the way these guys have been working.” Once again it was forward Jonathan Marchessault who sparked the Golden Knights offense, scoring a pair of goals for the second consecutive game and recording his third-straight two-point night in the series. Marchessault now has 17 points (eight goals) in the playoffs and along with linemates William Karlsson and Reilly Smith continue to give the Jets defense all kinds of trouble. Playoff veteran James Neal finished with a goal and an assist in Game 3, ending the night plus-3 and leading the Golden Knights with five shots on goal. The pick: Let's not forget that the Jets earned 114 points this regular season, second to only Nashville's 117. The Jets then beat the Preds in a seven-game series, taking three of four games played in Nashville. Winnipeg's losses in Games 2 and 3 means the team has lost back-to-back contests for the first time since mid-March. Now, for the first time this postseason, the Jets.trail in a playoff series. YUGE game tonight. Fleury made a number of highlight-worthy saves with Vegas nursing a one-goal lead in the final period of Game 3 plus also got plenty of help as the Golden Knights finished with 18 blocked shots and 18 takeaways. The Jets were oh so close to tying Game 3 in the third period but Fleury 'stood on his head.' I say he 'loses his balance' in Game 4. Make Winnipeg a 10* play. |
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05-18-18 | Orioles +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox won 6-2 in Thursday's series opener against the Baltimore Orioles. Home runs by J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts backed David Price's first complete game since 2016. Mookie Betts added three hits to boost his AL-leading average to .364 and Martinez homered for the eighth time in his last 15 games, although he left early due to a stomach ailment. The victory marked Boston's seventh straight over Baltimore, dating to 2017. The Red Sox will try to extend their winning streak against the Baltimore Orioles to eight games when the AL East rivals continue a four-game series at Fenway Park on Friday. The Orioles had won five of six while scoring at least five runs in each victory before being held to a total of three runs on nine hits in back-to-back losses, 4-1 to the Phillies on Wednesday and last night in Fenway to the Red Sox. The lone bright spot for Baltimore was when Manny Machado broke up Price's shutout bid with a two-run homer with two outs in the ninth for his fifth home run in a seven-game span.
The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (0-5, 7.06 ERA) takes the mound for Baltimore and lefty Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 5.47 ERA) gets the nod for Boston.Cobb has been a huge bust so far (he spent his firest six seasons with the Rays), as he remains in search of his first win of 2018. He's made six starts with Baltimore losing all six. The Boston native allowed three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday, while getting through a start without issuing a walk for the first time this year. However, he was pounded for eight runs (seven earned) in 3 2/3 innings at Fenway Park in his season debut and is 6-5 with a 4.02 ERA in 15 career starts against the Red Sox. Pomeranz is off an excellent season (17-6, 3.32 ERA) but has not come near matching that effort here in 2018, after beginning the season on the D (he has made just five starts). He delivered a pair of quality starts to begin May but then lasted just four innings while giving up three runs on five hits and five walks at Toronto on Sunday. He has allowed 28 hits and 13 walks in 24 2/3 innings overall, to register an early WHIP of 1.66, which would be his highest mark since 2013. Pomeranz owns a 3.34 ERA in eight career matchups (five starts) against the Orioles. The pick: Cobb was one of those late-signing free agents who didn't get much of a spring training and the results have shown just that. However, he has recovered from a dismal April (3.11 ERA) to produce a 3.06 ERA in three May starts plus he is 5-2 in eight career starts at Boston's Fenway Park. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Baltimore an 8* play. |
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05-18-18 | Padres v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates improved to 15-6 at home following Thursday's 5-4 series-opening triumph over San Diego, notching their second straight one-run victory, giving themselves a 9-3 record in one-run games so far in 2018, including 6-0 at home.The 26-17 Pirates are a half-game up on the 26-18 Brewers in the NL Central and will continue their four-game series with the Padres tonight, looking for a ninth victory in their last 10 outings (Pirates are 5-1 two-thirds of the way through their nine-game homestand). As for the Padres, they are in last place in the NL West. However, there is some good news. After going 10-20 over March and April, San Diego is 7-8 so far in May.
The pitching matchup:Tyson Ross (2-3, 3.40 ERA) takes the mound for San Diego and he will be opposed by Pittsburgh's Ivan Nova (2-3, 5.01 ERA). Ross allowed only one run on three hits and two walks while fanning seven over six innings in a no-decision Saturday against St. Louis (Padres won 2-1). He enters this contest winless over his last five outings but while he's 0-2 in that span, the Padres are 3-2 in those contests. Ross has struck out 39 in 29 2/3 innings over his last five starts, while holding the opposition to one run three times over that span. Ross has five career starts vs. Pittsburgh, going 1-2 with a 3.29 ERA. Nova opened the season with five quality starts in six tries but hasn't been the same since an excellent eight-inning effort on April 26 (six hits / no runs,/ no walks / five Ks). He lost for the second time in three outings after getting roughed up for four runs across 5 2/3 innings by San Francisco on Sunday. He has now surrendered a total of 17 runs (14 earned) on 25 hits over his last 12 1/3 innings (that's a 9.95 ERA!). Nova is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in four career starts against San Diego, including 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts last year. |
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05-17-18 | Lightning +103 v. Capitals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 103 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Lightning dug themselves into a deep hole in their Eastern Conference final series against the Washington Capitals by dropping the first two games of the series at home by a combined score of 10-4. As the Lightning got set to visit the Verizon Center in D.C for Game 3, they are well aware road teams (in this instance, the Caps) that had taken a 2-0 series lead in the NHL conference finals had gone on to win 18 of 19 previous series. However,Tampa Bay fought its way back in this series with a vastly improved performance and the reward is a chance to even the Eastern Conference finals Thursday night when the Lightning play Game 4 tonight in Washington. All-Stars Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov combined for seven points as the Lightning recorded a 4-2 victory Tuesday in Washington after dropping the first two games of the series at home. Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay was much tighter defensively, despite allowing 38 shots on goal (Andrei Vasilevskiy made 36 saves, after allowing 10 goals on 62 shots in the series' first two games for a .839 SP). The Lightning also scored twice on the power play to improve to 5-for-12 with the man advantage in the series and extend their streak to eight games with at least one power play score. Head coach Jon Cooper shuffled his top three forward lines for Game 3, putting Ondrej Palat with Kucherov and Stamkos, flipping J.T. Miller to a unit with Anthony Cirelli and Alex KIllorn while moving Yanni Gourde in with Brayden Point and Tyler Johnson. Point has four goals in his last five games and four of his 14 playoff points in the past two contests, while Hedman owns a franchise-record eight-game point streak after scoring once and assisting on two Tuesday.Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov finished with 12 shots on net and a goal for the Capitals in Game 3, while linemate Alex Ovechkin did not have a point despite accumulating nine shots.
Center Nicklas Backstrom (13 points, 11 playoff games) skated again Wednesday and could possibly return to the lineup Thursday, after missing the last four contests with a hand injury. Kuznetsov boasts four goals and seven assists during a six-game point streak and owns 20 points overall - six in the series - while Ovechkin scored twice and set up two others in the first two contests against Tampa Bay. Goalie Braden Holtby owns an .899 save percentage in the series, but has stopped 57 of the 60 shots he has faced at even strength (.950) and leads the league with 10 playoffs wins entering Wednesday. The pick: Washington head coach Barry Trotz told the media his team was “off a little bit” and will be better Thursday. Anyone really confident that that will be the case? I noted in taking Tampa Bay in Game 3 that while the Caps were 7-1 on the road this postseason, they are only a modest 3-3 at home (make that 3-4, now!). What's more, I reminded all that Washington owns a checkered playoff history and the Capitals are 0-2 in their playoff history when winning the first two games of a series on the road, including a loss to Tampa Bay in 2003. Could it be deja vu all over again, here? Here's what the Lightning said about Vezina finalist Andrei Vasilevskiy, who had allowed 10 goals in five periods of hockey during this series, before game 3. "We all have tremendous belief in him, and he’s a rock for our team,” Tampa Bay defenseman Anton Stralman told reporters. “He’s going to be back and be his best. We’re not making his job easier by executing our game plan defensively and offensively. The scoring chances are way up compared to the previous series and that’s on us, not him.” Vasilevskiy went out and made 36 saves on 38 shots. Meanwhile, Washington's Holtby, after stopping 52 of 56 shots in Games 1 and 2 (.929 SP), allowed four goals on just 23 shots (.839 SP) in Game 3. Make Tampa Bay a 10* play. |
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05-17-18 | Padres v. Pirates -155 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates completed a two-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox (MLB's worst team at 10-29) on Wednesday for their seventh victory in the last eight games. The Pirates improved to a major league-best 10-2 in interleague play despite missing center fielder Starling Marte and catcher Francisco Cervelli, who are listed as day-to-day after they were injured in Tuesday's game. The team's current hot streak has propelled them into first place in the National League Central with a 25-17 (.595) record. Pittsburgh is percentage points ahead of the 26-18 Brewers (.591). The Pirates will resume their nine-game homestand with the first of four against the San Diego Padres on Thursday night. The Padres opened their nine-game homestand by dropping four of five but bounced back to win three of the next four, culminating with a 4-0 victory over Colorado on Wednesday. The 17-27 Padres find themselves in a virtual last place in the NL West (with the LA Dodgers) despite playing a major league-high 29 games at home, where they are just 11-18. San Diego now kicks off a 10-game road trip with its visit to Pittsburgh, after playing only 15 (6-9) of their first 44 games away from Petco Park. The pitching matchup: San Diego rookie lefty Eric Lauer (1-2, 8.27 ERA) will get the start for the Padres with Chad Kuhl (4-2, 4.17 ERA) getting the nod for the Pirates. Lauer followed the best start of his brief major league career with his worst, getting rocked for six runs and serving up four HRs in only 2 1/3 innings in a home loss to St. Louis in his last time out. The 2016 first-round draft pick earned his first career win in his previous start by blanking the Los Angeles Dodgers on seven hits over six innings in 3-0 victory on May 6. Lauer not only owns an ugly 8.27 ERA but he also has a 2.14 WHIP, while opponents are batting .365 against him. Kuhl comes in having registered his fourth quality start in his last five outings but had to settle for a no-decision against San Francisco after giving up three runs and six hits over six innings this past Saturday. Kuhl is 3-1 over his last five starts (team is 4-1) but has allowed eight HRs in that span. Kuhl will be making his third career start against the Padres and owns a 1-0 record with a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings against San Diego.
The pick: Rookie lefty Lauer (8.27 ERA / 2.14 WHIP / .365 BAA) figures to be "up against it' vs. a Pittsburgh team which is 14-6 at PNC Park, outscoring opponents 5.55-to-3.50 RPG. Make Pittsburgh an 8* play. |
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05-17-18 | A's v. Blue Jays -115 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays recorded 15 hits, including seven for extra bases, in a 12-1 victory at the New York Mets on Wednesday afternoon to snap a three-game losing streak and sneak back over the .500 mark at 22-21. The Blue Jays now open a four-game home series against the visiting Oakland Athletics on Thursday night. The Athletics started a difficult nine-game stretch by losing five of six against Houston and the New York Yankees, before winning two of three at Boston, after dropping the finale 6-4 on Wednesday. This four-game series at Toronto will conclude Oakland's 10-game road trip with A's sitting one game under .500 at 21-22.
The pitching matchup: Andrew Triggs (3-1, 5.31 ERA) will take the mound for the A's, going up against the Blue Jays' Aaron Sanchez (2-3, 4.08 ERA). Triggs has alternated strong and rough starts over his past six appearances after allowing six runs over just 4 1/3 innings at the Yankees last Saturday in a no-decision (NYY won 7-6 in 11 inn.). It's been feast or famine for Triggs in 2018, who also owns two quality starts in his last four trips to the mound and he has limited opponents to two or fewer runs in five of eight starts overall. Triggs' only career outing against Toronto was a one-inning stint in which he allowed two hits and one unearned run back on July 17, 2016 at Oakland in a 5-3 team loss. Sanchez threw just 60 of 96 pitches for strikes last time out against Boston, permitting three runs (two earned) on five hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision (Jays won 5-3 in 12 inn.). Sanchez had a stretch of four straight quality starts (from April 4-25), before giving up 11 runs (eight earned) over 14 2/3 innings in his last three appearances (4.91 ERA). Sanchez has made just three career appearances vs. Oakland (only one start)and owns 0-1 record with an 8.53 ERA. |
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05-16-18 | Jets v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: It's been a remarkable season for the expansion Vegas Golden Knights and the team's gritty 3-1 victory Monday in Game 2 at Winnipeg, was emblematic of the way this team has performed all season. Winnipeg pretty much dominated in its 4-2 Game 1 victory but Vegas survived an early onslaught against goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury to build a 2-0 lead and when the Jets closed to within 2-1, the Golden Knights quickly got back their two-goal advantage with their third goal of the game less than two minutes later. Vegas made life uncomfortable for the Jets in the neutral zone all game and Vegas forward Jonathan Marchessault, who labeled Game 2 a “must win,” backed it up with two goals to lead a spirited effort. Now it's the Jets who need to respond, as the series shifts to Las Vegas for the next two games. Winnipeg: Nobody in the Jets locker room is panicking after losing one home contest and as defenseman Jacob Trouba offered to reporters after Monday’s game: “We like our road game. We like where it was in the Nashville series, and we’re going to try and bring the same effort.” Hard to argue with him. The Jets won three of four at Nashville in the previous series and have lost in regulation just once in six road games during the postseason. Winnipeg did not play poorly in Game 2 but were nowhere near as sharp as they were in the series opener. The Jets were victimized several times by turnovers and sloppy puck handling. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck made 25 saves, but gave up Marchessault’s second goal 88 seconds after forward Kyle Connor’s power-play marker pulled the Jets within one in the third period. Connor’s linemates - forward Blake Wheeler and center Mark Scheifele - have combined for 15 goals and 36 points in the postseason but were held off the scoresheet in Game 2. Vegas: “Every time we need a big game out of our group, we show up,” Marchessault told the media after the game. “I think we showed the hockey world that we earned the right to be here, and we are able to play against a great team.” Marchessault leads Vegas in playoff goals (six) and points (15), and he finished plus-2 Monday while sparking his line of center William Karlsson and forward Reilly Smith to a combined plus-6 finish. Fleury, who gave up three goals in the opening 7:35 of Game 1, fended off several good scoring chances in the opening minutes Monday en route to a 30-save performance. Vegas was much better in several areas in Game 2, blocking 21 shots and winning 51 percent of faceoff attempts.
The pick: I'll acknowledge the Jets' excellent road play this postseason but this Vegas team has been terrific at home all season (regular and post), sporting a 33-10-3 record, while averaging a hefty 3.57 GPG and allowing a modest 2.39 GPG. I won't buck them here in what figures to be a frenzied atmosphere at T-Mobile Arena. Make Vegas a 9* play. |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockets won the West by seven games over the second-place Warriors and took two of three regular-season meetings while averaging 117.3 PPG. Both Houston and Golden State reached the Western Conference Finals with 4-1 wins in the first two rounds of teh playoffs, setting up this "clash of titans." Game 1 was played Monday in Houston and while the Rockets led early by nine points, the game was tied at the half. However, in a span of about 2 1/2 minutes in the third quarter, the Warriors ripped off a 12-2 run. Then, a 13-4 spurt in the early 4th, led to a 119-106 Golden State win. In a flash, all Houston's hard work in i unrelenting charge to the best record in the Western Conference was torn asunder and rendered moot, as the home-court advantage that accompanied what the team had accomplished in the regular season was by the handiwork of Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green.The Golden Warriors outscored the Rockets by 13 points in teh second half and flashed supreme form in the opener and now look to take a 2-0 lead when on Wednesday. The Warriors outscored the Rockets by 13 points in the second half while recording a 119-106 win in Game 1. Meanwhile, the Rockets, who had labored hard down the stretch of the regular season to bypass the Warriors in the standings and guarantee that this anticipated series would open in Houston, must now win Game 2 or face what would likely be an insurmountable 'hill to climb!" Golden State: Kevin Durant scored 37 points and shooting guard Klay Thompson added 28, as second-seeded Golden State was in top form while outclassing James Harden and the top-seeded Rockets. in Game 1. Curry had a modest 18 points (but eight assists and six rebounds) plus Green scored just five points. However, Green added nine rebounds, nine assist, two blocks and two steals, while posting a plus-minus rating of plus-19, the best of any Warrior! Durant was 14-of-27 shooting in Game 1, as Golden State repeatedly isolated him to take advantage of mismatches with Houston defenders. Golden State shot 51.2% as a team, recording a 60.6 effective field-goal percentage in the series opener. That was par for the course even against the Rockets' exceptional defense, as Golden State produced a 61.8 effective field-goal percentage during the team's three regular-season meetings, the highest such mark against Houston by any opponent. However, it wasn't that the Warriors shot efficiently but rather the number of wide-open looks they generated by ball movement. Houston: Harden scored 41 points (has now reached 40 points three times this postseason) and added seven assists in the opener but didn't receive enough help from the supporting cast. "We're all in this together," Harden told reporters. "It doesn't matter who has a bad game or who is missing shots. ... Keep shooting your shot and being aggressive. We got this far doing that and having that mindset, so we're just going to continue it." Harden and coach Mike D'Antoni joked after Game 1 that he might need to ask Harden to score 55 in Game 2. He broke out of a three-point shooting funk by making 5-of-9 attempts after being just 6-of-32 over the final four contests of the second-round series against the Utah Jazz. Point guard Chris Paul had 23 points and 11 rebounds in the opener but only had three assists, as the Rockets were unable to crisply moving the ball in the half-court offense.
The pick: Obviously, the Rockets are in a "must-win" situation but one has to ask, are the Warriors just too good? I'll stick with the analysis I had in Game 1 (lost my "under call" by a half-point). NBA fans have anticipated this spectacle of the rim runs, fast breaks, a hail of three-pointers and sublime passing for months. However, for all their otherworldly talent, the Rockets and Warriors have no secrets. Even with Houston's James Harden and Chris Paul plus Golden State's magnificent scoring trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant, the series will be dictated by defensive might. Both teams closed the season ranked in the top-10 in defensive efficiency and each have ratcheted up their efforts in the playoffs. Golden State is first in defensive rating (99.3), the Rockets second (102.1). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-16-18 | Reds v. Giants -152 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -152 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: San Francisco won its third straight game with Tuesday’s 5-3 victory over Cincinnati, moving one game over .500 at 22-21. First baseman Brandon Belt homered and shortstop Brandon Crawford went 4-for-4 in the win. Hunter Strickland worked a perfect ninth inning for his ninth save and has made a strong case to continue as the team’s closer even after Mark Melancon (forearm) returns at the end of the month. Cincinnati opened 3-15 and fired manager Bryan Price. They have played much better under interim manager Jim Riggleman, going 11-14 with second baseman Scooter Gennett and third baseman Eugenio Suarez leading the resurgence. Suarez went 2-for-3 with a two-run HRwhile batting third in Tuesday’s loss and has a team-high 30 RBI in just 27 games. The Giants look to complete a three-game home sweep today at AT&T Park. The pitching matchup: The Reds will hand the ball to the newly-acquired Matt Harvey (0-2, 6.10 ERA), while the Giants go with lefty Andrew Suarez (1-2, 4.57 ERA). Harvey was acquired from the New York Mets last week and looks to build on his impressive Cincy debut. Harvey gave up one hit, struck out two and walked none over four innings in a no-decision against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday. “It’s a good first start,” he told reporters. “It’s only four innings. There’s a lot of work and a lot of season left. But to go out there and get outs and help the team win is very important.” However, Harvey is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in three career starts versus San Francisco. In contrast, Suarez is looking to bounce back from a rough outing last Friday against Pittsburgh, giving up five runs on seven hits over just four innings. However, he was sharp in his previous two starts, allowing a total of three runs (two earned) with 11 strikeouts across 12 1/3 innings. Suarez was recalled from Triple-A Sacramento earlier this month to replace Johnny Cueto (elbow) in the rotation and owns a 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his four starts.
The pick: Suarez, a rookie, has never faced the Reds which seems like a better resume than Harvey's poor record against the Giants (see above). After struggling so badly for the New York Mets that they designated him for assignment, prompted a trade to the Reds for catcher Devin Mesoraco, Harvey retired 12 of the 13 batters he faced in Los Angeles, allowing only one hit. I guess one could take the position that "the exception" is the rule but not I. I'll note that Harvey made 19 appearances (18 starts) for the Mets in 2017, posting a 6.70 ERA and 1.69 WHIP, while allowing opponents to hit .381! In eight 2018 appearances for the Mets (four starts) he owned a 7.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, while opponents batted .355. I expect a San Francisco sweep. Make the Giants an 8* play. |
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05-16-18 | Cardinals -122 v. Twins | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins are a sub-.500 team at 18-20, while the St. Louis Cardinals check in at 22-17 as teams close in on the 40-game mark (about 25% of the 162-game schedule). However, when the two teams wrap up a two-game interleague set on Wednesday afternoon in Minnesota at Target Field, the Twins have a chance to complete a season sweep of the Cardinals. Minnesota won 4-1 on Tuesday and has now held St. Louis to a total of just two runs while winning the first three meetings. Minnesota has now won eight of its last 11 after Tuesday's victory, pulling them within a half-game of AL Central leader Cleveland. The Twins snapped out of a brief offensive funk in the series opener after scoring only one run in each of their previous two games (both losses). As for the Cardinals, they have totaled five runs during a three-game skid and managed only two hits in Tuesday’s series opener. The pitching matchup: Miles Mikolas (5-0, 2.51 ERA) gets the start for the Cards and the Twins sill send former Cardinal Lance Lynn (1-3, 7.34 ERA( to the mound to face his ex-teammates. The 29-year-old Mikolas spent the previous three seasons in Japan but is proving he can be an effective big-league starter (that's an understatement). Mikolas allowed one run over 6 2/3 innings of a win at San Diego last time out for his fifth consecutive quality start, after he allowed four ERs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings in his 2018 debut back on April 2. Mikolas has 35 strikeouts and only three walks in 46 2/3 innings in 2018, helping him to an 0.96 WHIP. Lynn spent his last six seasons with the Cardinals, going 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA. Lynn turned down a $17.4 million qualifying offer from St. Louis but didn't land with the Twins, who signed him to a one-year deal, until late in spring training. Lynn has shown better control over his last two starts, walking only two batters after issuing 23 free passes over his first five outings. However, he has only one quality start among his seven outings of 2018 (Twins are 2-5 in his starts).
The pick: Mikolas takes the mound with a 2.51 ERA, an 0.96 WHIP with opponents hitting .233 against him. In stark contrast, Lynn owns a 7.34 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and opponents are batting .312 against him. That hardly seems like a fair fight. Matt Carpenter returned to the St. Louis Cardinals' lineup Tuesday night after getting a few days off to regroup. Now, it's Dexter Fowler's turn to get back on track. Fowler is expected back among St. Louis' starting nine Wednesday. Both he and Carpenter have gotten off to the worst offensive starts of their careers in 2018 but both are "players!" Their return IS good news. Make the Cards a 10* play. |
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05-15-18 | Astros -176 v. Angels | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-15-18 | Lightning +107 v. Capitals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 107 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-15-18 | Indians -138 v. Tigers | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-14-18 | Reds v. Giants -130 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | Top | 119-106 | Push | 0 | 65 h 2 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-14-18 | Rays v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-13-18 | Capitals +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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05-13-18 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks -122 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -122 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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05-13-18 | Twins v. Angels -156 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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05-13-18 | Cavs -1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-108 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-12-18 | Reds v. Dodgers -186 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -186 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Dodgers were one win away from their first World Series title since 1988 last season, falling in a Gam7 to the Astros. They entered the current season as the five-time defending NL West champs but almost nothing has gone right for them in 2018. LA lost last night 6-2 to the sad-sack Reds (11-27 record is an NL-worst) and has now lost five of its last six games and 12 of its last 17. “We know we’re better than this,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters. “We’ve got to keep believing it. It hasn’t shown itself recently. But to just keep grinding, that’s all we can do.” However, the Dodgers continue this four-game set averaging just 3.2 runs in their last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Reds are showing signs of life under interim manager Jim Riggleman and bring a season-high four-game winning streak into Saturday’s contest. New arrival Matt Harvey (the Mets' former "Dark Knight") tossed four scoreless innings on Friday. The pitching matchup: Homer Bailey (0-5, 5.61 ERA) takes to the mound for Cincy up against LA's Ross Stripling (0-1, 1.93 ERA). Bailey lost his second straight start last Monday, allowing six runs on eight hits in four innings versus the New York Mets. The Reds have lost all eight of his starts in 2018 and he has given up nine HRs and 18 runs over 19 2/3 innings across his last four outings. Bailey is 4-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles, including 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA in five outings at Dodger Stadium. Stripling pitched four scoreless innings in a start last Sunday against San Diego, allowing four hits with five strikeouts (LA lost 3-0). He has worked primarily out of the bullpen this season but moved into the rotation following injuries to Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu. This marks Stripling's third start of the season, after coming out of the bullpen in 11 other games.The pick: There is cause for concern in LA, as the Dodgers have dropped five of their past six games, with four of those losses coming against the Reds and San Diego Padres, owners of the two worst records in the NL! "Keep grinding," Roberts said. "That's all we can do." He's right about that. The good news is that LA faces Bailey, whose minus-$805 moneyline mark ranks second-worst in MLB in 2018 (about 200 different starters). Bailey may be one of just two active pitchers in the major leagues with multiple no-hitters but his "no-hit days" are over. Make LA a 6* play. |
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05-11-18 | Twins v. Angels -167 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -167 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels hit three HRs early to grab a four-run lead but saw that lead disappear before a sacrifice fly in the sixth inning helped lead them to a 7-4 triumph. Japanese two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani also went deep and added an RBI double as he has hit safely in 14 of the 16 games in which he served as designated hitter (.354 BA / 5 HRs / 16 RBI). LA's win in the opener of this four-game series vs. the visting Twins has them percentage points ahead of the Houston Astros for first-place in the AL West (Angels are 23-14, .22 and the Astros are 24-15, .615 ). Minnesota saw its five-game winning streak come to an end, despite Brian Dozier going 4-for-4 (he had half of the Twins' eight hits), including a three-run HR. The Twins are just 15-18 but also only 1 1/2 games back of the first-place Indians in the AL Central. The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (1-3, 7.28 ERA) takes teh mound for Minnesota and lefty Tyler Skaggs (3-2, 3.08 ERA)( gets the nod for LA. Lynn came to the Minnesota Twins with a solid resume from his years in the National League. He spent six seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, compiling a 72-47 mark in that span, which led to him signing a one-year, $12 million contract with the Twins in March. Lynn posted an 8.37 ERA over five starts in April, surrendering five or more runs in four of the outings (he was 0-3 and the team, 0-5). However, Lynn posted his elusive first victory Saturday in Chicago, limiting the White Sox to two runs on eight hits and struck out seven in six innings in an 8-4 win. Lynn made his only career start against the Angels while with St. Louis in 2013, when he yielded five runs and nine hits over six innings in a loss on the road. Skaggs has allowed fewer than three runs in each of his last three starts, including a no-decision at Seattle on Saturday in which he gave up two with seven strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings (he's 1-1 and the team 1-2 in that span). Skaggs has struggled at home this season, going 0-2 while surrendering 10 runs over 14 1/3 Innings in three starts (6.28 ERA). This marks Skaggs' 65th start of his career, but will be facing Minnesota for the first time.
The pick: Not sure why Skaggs has struggled so much at home, as he owns a 1.14 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in four road starts. Lynn hasn't adjusted well to the AL and comes in not only with a bloated ERA but a 1.96 WHIP, while opponents are batting .299 against him. Make the Angels an 8* play. |
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05-11-18 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
he set-up: The Washington Capitals are in their first conference final in 20 years, while the Tampa Bay Lightning are in for the third time in four years. Tampa Bay has dispatched New Jersey and Boston in five games each, while Washington has had a more difficult path to this point, rallying from an 0-2 deficit to beat Columbus, then again needing six games to eliminate the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. The Lightning have 18 players that have a combined 273 conference final games of experience, while the Capitals total is 28 conference final games of experience. Will experience give Tampa Bay an (the?) edge or will Washington's motivation of waiting so long to get to this point in the postseason be a (the?) determining factor?
Washington: The Capitals edged the Penguins at Pittsburgh in Game 6 without standout center Nicklas Backstrom and he is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. He who owns 13 points in the playoffs and has been skating on his own while forward Andre Burakovsky (upper-body injury) practiced Thursday and is also considered day-to-day after missing the last 10 games. Captain Alex Ovechkin makes his first appearance in the conference final after recording a team-high eight goals in 12 playoff contests, and his club-best 15 points are one better than linemate Evgeny Kuznetsov - who scored the overtime winner in Game 6 at Pittsburgh. John Carlson boasts 11 points in the playoffs and fellow defenseman Brooks Orpik, who has appeared in 137 postseason games, leads the team with a plus-9 rating. Tampa Bay: The No. 1 line of Brayden Point, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, have limited their opponents' top threesome at even strength in the first two series and will likely get another test with the Tom Wilson-Kuznetsov-Ovechkin line. Right wing Nikita Kucherov leads the team with six goals and 12 points in the playoffs while linemate Steven Stamkos scored two of his three goals in the last three games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy boasts a 2.20 goals-against average and .927 save percentage in the postseason. However, he was 0-3-0 versus the Capitals before winning two of three while posting a .930 SP against them in 2017-18.The pick: "If you're going to have success against really good teams, Pitt, Tampa, anybody going forward, you've got to be hard, you've got to be detailed, you've got to be compact, you've got to make good decisions, you've got to have an extremely high work ethic and high commitment," Capitals head coach Barry Trotz said. Trotz decided to bench the team's No. 1 goalie at the start of the Columbus series but after falling behind 0-2, returned to Braden Holtby, who owns a 2.04 GAA in the playoffs and is 9-3-2 with a .910 SP in 16 career games against the Lightning. Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy has been sharp, allowing 2.20 GAA with a .927 SP plus tied for the NHL lead in shutouts with eight. Tampa Bay made headlines in the regular season with its high-scoring offense but the Lightning separated themselves from Boston with physical play, something that carried over from the opening series with New Jersey. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-11-18 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets opened 11-1 but open a three-game series in Philadelphia with the Phillies having lost 16 of their last 23 games, including eight of nine to fall to 18-17. Philadelphia lost four of five to open the season but have made a solid turnaround since then, as the Phillies are now 22-15 overall (that's a 21-11 run), after capping a four-game sweep of San Francisco with a 6-3 win on Thursday. The pitching matchup: The Mets will send lefty Steven Matz (1-3, 4.23 ERA) to the mound and Philly counters with 2015 Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta (3-1, 3.15 ERA). Matz suffered a disastrous seven-run outing on April 25 but rebounded with his first quality start of the season in Saturday's 2-0 loss to Colorado. He allowed just one run on three hits in six innings. The 26-year-old had his start pushed back due to a stiff back and while allowed a first-inning HR (his 6th in 27 2/3 innings), he settled down. Matz pitched well in his lone encounter versus Philadelphia, permitting two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 setback on Aug. 12. Arrieta missed Philadelphia's first series versus New York, as he worked himself into shape after signing a three-year, $75 million contract in March. He will be back on the mound Friday night for his seventh start in a Phillies uniform. He was part of a pitchers' duel in his last outing, facing Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals (he allowed just one run on two hits and two walks last Sunday in six innings). Arrieta enjoyed a three-start winning streak before getting blitzed against Miami on April 30, but rebounded at Washington on Sunday. He has posted a 2-2 mark with a 2.30 ERA in seven career appearances versus the Mets. |
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05-10-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -145 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -145 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies had ripped off six consecutive victories before dropping an 8-0 decision in the second of a two-game interleague series against the Los Angeles Angels last night. Colorado had allowed two runs or less five times during its six-game run but allowed eight runs on 12 hits in the loss. Colorado also saw its franchise-record string of quality starts snapped at nine in Wednesday's defeat. Meanwhile, Milwaukee capped a 2-3 homestand with a 6-2 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday. The 21-16 Brewers are in a four-way dogfight for first place in the National League Central, with the Cards, Pirates, Brewers and the Cubs are all within one game of each other. The Rockies are also 21-16 but 3 1/2 games back of the D-backs in the NL West. The Brewers open a 10-game road trip with tonight's game in Colorado, while the Rockies will conclude a six-game homestand with this four-game weekend series against Milwaukee. |
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05-10-18 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Yankees found themselves 7 1/2 games behind the Red Sox on April 20. Boston's 17-2 run allowed them to seize control of the American League East early on However, Boston's gone 8-9 since that blistering start, while the Yankees have utilized a 17-1 run to take over the top spot in the division (a 2-1 loss to Houston on April 30 being the only blemish). The Yankees now look to make it 18 of 19 and complete a three-game sweep of the Red Sox when the American League East rivals meet Thursday in the Bronx. Stanton's two HRs led the way to a 3-2 win on Tuesday and last night, Brett Gardner and Aaron Judge combined for six hits, six runs and five RBI, including four on consecutive hits - Gardner's two-run triple and Judge's two-run homer - against Boston closer Craig Kimbrel in an eighth-inning rally that lifted New York to a 9-6 victory. "They're playing good baseball," Kimbrel said. You think? Beside the 17-1 run, the Yankees are on their second eight-game winning streak of the season and their 11-game home winning streak is the longest since a 12-game run from April 25-June 1, 1985.
The pitching matchup: It's a battle of lefties on Thursday, as Eduardo Rodriguez (3-0, 5.29 ERA) goes for the Red Sox, opposed by CC Sabathia (2-0, 1.39 ERA) of the Yankees. Rodriguez posted three straight quality starts in the middle of April but has given up five runs in each of his last two outings. He struck out 10 in six innings but served up three HRs in his last start Saturday at Texas. He is 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA in nine starts against the Yankees. Sabathia is coming off a successful 2017, when the Yankees went 19-8 in his 27 starts, giving him MLB's 4th-best moneyline mark at plus-$1163. He is 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA in four starts since coming off the disabled list April 19 (Yankees are 4-0), including six scoreless innings and a season-high seven strikeouts against Cleveland on Friday (he got a no-decision in NY's 7-6 win). He has not allowed a HR in each of those four starts and has issued only three walks over his last five outings. The 37-year-old is 17-13 with a 4.12 ERA lifetime versus the Red Sox. |
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05-09-18 | 76ers -1 v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics have never lost a playoff series after taking a 2-0 lead (36-0 all-time) and in this series against the 76ers, won Game 3, as well. Yes, Philly won Game 4 at home to stave off elimination but both the 76ers and Celtics are well aware that all 130 teams which have fallen behind 0-3 in a best-of-seven series (including Toronto just losing to Cleveland in the 2018 postseason) have failed in their attempt to make a 'miracle' comeback. The Celtics were outplayed by the 76ers in Monday's 103-92 loss but the post-game mood wasn't overly somber. "It's 3-1, we get a chance to go back to Boston," forward Marcus Morris told reporters. "Nobody's head is down. We're all motivated. We're happy. It would've been better to end it (Monday), but so be it. We go back to Boston and play." As for the 76ers, they are still maintaining hope that they can become the first team to rally from a 0-3 deficit and win a playoff series. "This thing can be done," Philadelphia forward Robert Covington told reporters. "We've done it before as far as finishing the season strong so why can't we do this? We're playing against history, but we've played against history before so why can't we do something great?" Philadelphia: T.J. McConnell will draw his second straight start after posting 19 points, seven rebounds and five assists in 39 minutes in Game 4. McConnell started just one game during the regular season but he provided a tone for Monday's win by making 9-of-12 from the floor and not committing any turnovers, as part of Philly's three-guard lineup (joining Simmons and Redick). "He changed everything," 76ers center Joel Embiid told reporters. "He was pressing full court the whole time doing his job, running the offense, getting guys involved, making shots, layups." SF Covington came of the bench, while PF Saric had his best game of the postseason in Game 4, scoring 25 points and adding eight rebounds (he had averaged 12.3 points over the first three games of the series). Simmons bounced back from his one-point effort in Game 3 with 19 points and 13 rebounds, while Embiid added 15 & 13 (he's averaging 20.6 & 12.7 in seven playoff games). Boston: The injury-ravaged Celtics suffered another one in Game 4, as Shane Larkin injuring his left shoulder running into the wall known as Embiid. Head coach Stevens said Tuesday he won't know until Wednesday's shoot-around whether he'll have his backup guard. The Celtics were sloppy as their four-game playoff winning streak came to an end. "I mean, obviously, what did we end up with? Fifteen turnovers," Stevens said after the game. "The offensive rebounds were enormous for them, just the extra possessions. Neither team shot it great, but they were really good tonight." Guard Terry Rozier has emerged as a postseason hero with Kyrie Irving out for the year, but he will need to bounce back from his first sub-par game of the series. He had just two assists and scored only 11 points on 4-of-11 shooting in Game 4. Rozier averaged 22.3 points over the first three games of the series and has scored 20 or more points on five occasions during the postseason (18.3-5.5-6.1 in 11 playoff games). SF Jayson Tatum is averaging 23.3 points in the series and has extended his rookie franchise postseason record of consecutive 20-point games to six.
The pick: Boston having never lost a series in which it has gone up 2-0 in plus the fact that teams falling behind 0-3 in a series are 0-130 all-time, make Philly's chances at coming all the way back to win this series seem futile. Throw in that Boston is also 6-0 SU at home this postseason and it's more than fair to say Philly's postseason hopes are 'on life-support.' However, the 76ers can win here and still lose the series, so let's stick to this Game 5 analysis. Philly did not play well in Game 1 but had chances to win in each of the next three games, finally breaking through in Game 4. Note that Game 4 was not exactly Philly at its best. We haven't seen that yet. My bet is we will see that tonight, as Philly starts to make Boston 'sweat' with a win that sens this series back to Philly for a Game 6. Make Philly a 10* play. |
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05-09-18 | Astros -163 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The defending World Series champs began the 2018 season 16-7 but hit a rough spot but began this week at just 21-15 (5-8 run) as it visited Oakland for a three-game series against the A's. Houston opened May by losing five of its first six contests this month but has collected 32 hits while outscoring Oakland 20-4 in the first two games of the series. The Athletics managed only six hits in Tuesday's setback as they fell to 3-2 on their six-game homestand and to 18-18 on the season. The Astros will be looking for a sweep this afternoon after they followed up a 16-2 shellacking of the A's on Monday night with a 4-2 victory behind a home run by Alex Bregman and a combined six-hitter from four pitchers. The pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole (3-1, 1.42 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and will be opposed by Oakland's Daniel Mengden (2-3, 4.30 ERA). Cole was acquired from the Pirates in the off-season and his first season in Houston has been a unqualified success thus far. He has allowed only nine runs (eight earned) and 26 hits while registering 77 strikeouts and issuing only nine walks over 50 2/3 innings in seven starts (Astros are 6-1 in his starts). He is coming off his second career complete game and first shutout, as he fanned a season-high 16 batters and walked just one while tossing a one-hitter at Arizona on Friday. Cole has made just two career starts against Oakland, going 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA in two career starts. Mengden has allowed just one run in three of his last four starts but has won only one of those outings. All three of those outings took place at home, where he is 1-10 with a 5.32 ERA in 16 career starts. What's more, Mengden is winless in five career starts against Houston, going 0-3 with a 7.23 ERA (A's are 1-4 in those starts).
The pick: This is just a "pitching mismatch," with the red-hot Cole facing Mengden. Mengden was rocked at Houston on April 28 in an 11-0 Astros win, allowing five runs (four earned) in just 2 1/3 innings. Why would he do better here at home, where his ERA is 5.32 in 16 career home starts? Cole and the Astros roll. make Houston an 8* play. |
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05-09-18 | Angels v. Rockies -144 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -144 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies surprised almost all observers by going 87-75 last season to earn a wild card spot, after entering 2017 on a run of six consecutive sub-.500 seasons. Colorado closed April on a three-game losing streak but they have been unbeatable so far in May. Colorado looks to extend its month-opening winning streak to seven games when it hosts the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday afternoon for the finale of its two-game interleague series. The Rockies finished their 6-3 road trip with five consecutive victories before returning home to post a 4-2 win over the Angels on Tuesday. Los Angeles managed only six hits and was kept off the scoreboard for the first seven innings as it dropped to 2-2 on its five-game road trip. The Rockies are now 21-15, having closed within 3 1/2 games of the first-place Arizona in the NL West. As for the Angels, after a 13-3 start, they are 8-11 since, checking in at 21-14 (a half-game behind the first-place Astros in the AL West). |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 229.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors have been to the last three NBA Finals (all against the Cavs), winning twice. The Warriors came up short in Game 3 in a 19-point loss, scoring a modest 100 points on 38.0% shooting (including 9-of-31 on threes). However, the Pelicans have seemed powerless to halt Golden State's assault in the other three games, as the Warriors have averaged 120.7 points in their three victories in the series. Golden State now looks to close out the Western Conference semifinals when it hosts the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday. New Orleans is insisting it won't roll over with its season on the line but ripping off three straight wins will be a daunting chore. "No, no. We've got to win one game at Oracle and that's the one that we play next," Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry said in reference to Game 5 in Oakland. "That's as far as we need to look. Obviously it's a monumental task. It's been done before. As I said to the guys, we've just got to go play and you're not out until they win four games." New Orleans: The Pelicans suffered from poor shooting (36.4%) and ball-handling (19 turnovers) in the Game 4 loss. They have to do nbetter than that and naturally, will rely on Anthony Davis, who is averaging 26.3 points and 13.8 rebounds in the series plus has a double-double in all eight of the team's postseason games (29.6 & 12.8). Of concern is the fact that the Pelicans have burned their starters big minutes, with Anthony Davis (39.3) and Jrue Holiday (38.2) leading the series in minutes played. The New Orleans bench has not been up to the task, getting outscored 134-95 in the four games. "We do have guys that are playing heavy minutes," Gentry explained. "Really, all the starters are playing real heavy minutes. I thought it would be a good idea today to let their minds rest, their bodies rest." He had that in mind when he called off a Monday workout. The pick: Hard to imagine New Orleans coming back to win this series but that's not the question here. In fact, the Pelicans have played their best in the series when rested. The teams got two days off in Oakland after Golden State's 123-101 victory in Game 1 and the Pelicans rebounded with a strong effort in Game 2, falling just 121-116 on the road. Then after two more days off, New Orleans was re-energized at home and responded with its 119-100 triumph. However, the teams were then rushed back from a Friday night to a Sunday afternoon for Game 4, during which the Pelicans shot just 4 of 26 on three-pointers after having scorched the nets for 14 of 31 in the Game 3 win. The Pelicans don't have two days off here but they shouldn't be as tired with this schedule (Sunday afternoon game to a Tuesday evening one). Also, Golden St is just 19-26-1 ATS this year at home (including playoffs), as well as 12-17-1 ATS when laying 10-plus points,. Make the Under an 8* play. |