The Cubs have lost 6 straight, and were just swept by the Yankees. At home vs. the Padres, they start lefty Justin Steele (4.79 ERA). Just 1-5 this season, Steele has had a couple of very poor short starts, but otherwise keeps ER down to 2-3. Okay, sometimes 4. Bases on balls have been an issue. His last start was a fine 7 inning, 1 run effort.

He faces Yu Darvish (3.61 ERA) who can be very good (4 shut outs to date), but is not without sub-par outings. He has had 3 poor appearances, all on the road. The first inning has been a struggle.

The Padres are 7-3, and are better on the road than at home. They didn’t do much damage in their last 3 games, just 6 runs scored total, and have struggled on offense much of the season. They do win at a better clip vs. lefties. They have a good bullpen, very good in their last ten games at 3.00 ERA. The opposing Cubs relievers have struggled to a 5.33 ERA in the same time frame.

The Cubs can usually hit, but haven’t scored more than 4 runs in their last 6 games. They are poor on the road and just 15-26 vs. right-handed pitching.

I am on Darvish and the Padres on Monday. I have more faith in his abilities than Steele’s and there is the Padres’ road success and the Cubs’ bullpen to consider. Take the Padres to win outright.

Neither of our two NBA Finalists have suffered consecutive defeats since the playoffs began. If that pattern holds, that means Boston will win this series in seven games. But that would also mean the Celtics win twice on the road. I don’t see that happening. Look for Golden State to take a 3-2 series lead Monday night as they are back home.

The Warriors have lost at home only 11 times all year. Game 1 of this series was one of those 11, but it was also the only home game they’ve lost during the playoffs. They are +10.5 points per game for the year at home and as I’ve mentioned before, defense improves for the Warriors here as they allow just 103.2 points per game compared to 108.9 on the road.

The Warriors have played 11 home games in the playoffs. Not only have they won 10 of them, but eight of those wins have come by double digits. They’ve covered five of the last six.

Steph Curry continues to be other-worldly. He’s averaging 34.3 points per game in the NBA Finals and has made 25 threes in four games. He’s shooting almost 50 percent from behind the arc. Curry’s supporting cast should help out more in Game 5 as role players typically shoot better at home.

This is a huge game where it’s very likely the winner goes on to take the series. I just see Curry and Golden State as being more likely to step up. Lay the points.

The Jays have owned the Orioles, Mondays opponent. Their bats have come alive, especially when Manoah, today’s starter, is on the mound. Manoah has been as good as anyone this year, with a 1.81 ERA over 10 starts. At 7-1 he has not just effective,but consistent, with no poor starts to date.

The Orioles have won a pair but face a much tougher opponent in the Jays. Looking at their opposition, it has been a while since they faced a starter of Manoah’s caliber. Their rookie Bradish (6.45 ERA) starts on Monday. He generally has not been sharp, and won’t likely pitched for length, but has he had run support! He has won 3 straight games, and O’s have slugged 30 runs in his last three outings. Do not expect similar results against Manoah.

The Orioles have had a good bullpen lately and they are going to need it on Monday. Manoah pitches for length, Bradish doesn’t. The Jays are a huge favorite and have one of the best offenses in the league when clicking. They are averaging almost 8 runs scored a game, far more than will likely be needed. Take the Jays on the Run line to win, at – 1 ½.

The Rays have lost two straight on the road against the hard-hitting Twins, and will rely on left-hander Springs to avoid the sweep. With eight starts now under his belt, the rookie has impressed, with a 1.62 ERA. He began the season as a reliever but is now stretched out to 5 or 6 innings. His last start was a 6 inning shutout over the Cardinals. The Rays can expect solid support from their relief corps, sparkling as usual, with a 1.78 ERA in their last ten games.

Starting for the Twins is rookie righty Sands, who has even less experience than Springs. He has potential but has yet to show it in the Bigs, allowing a run an inning on average in his first 3 starts, and lasting just 9+ innings. The Twins will have to rely heavily on their bullpen on Sunday, but their relievers have been very soft lately with a leaky 5.23 ERA in their last ten games. The combination of Sands and the Twins relievers ended in 10 runs in his last appearance.

For the Twins it seems to be win big or lose bigger lately. Their bats have been very hot, with a monster OPS of .983 in their last week, but do not hit left-handers with the same authority. They have owned the Rays lately but Sunday will be an exception. Look for Tampa Bay to rally and avoid the broom.  Rays to win.

At 8-2 in their last 10 games, the Red Sox have beaten up on the Mariners recently and out-dueled them last night. Today’s Sox starter, Wacha (1.99 ERA) had a rough start vs. the White Sox, but has bounced back twice since. His last time out was a 3 hit, complete game shutout. Even with that poor start, opposing batters are managing just .172 against him.

Wacha faces a promising young Mariners starter in Georg Kirby (3.38 ERA). With 6 starts under his belt, he has put up decent numbers and a ton of strikeouts. Still, he has had a couple of poor starts thrown in including one vs these same Red Sox, his worst appearance to date. The Sox have faced Kirby just once, but Story has had his number early.

While Boston isn’t hitting at quite the same torrid pace of some weeks ago, they still have a formidable offensive lineup. They are 7-1 in June and have a solid road record. The Mariners are hitting well of late, but oddly, neither team has a winning record vs. right-handers. The Red Sox bullpen has been terrific lately; the Mariners’ solid but not as impressive as the Sox’. The Mariners are favored today, but I can’t see it. They are not dominant as a home team, and Kirby has faltered more often than Wacha. Take the Red Sox to win on the road tonight.

The Lightning roll into Game 6 a heavy favorite, and are looking to keep that home ice advantage intact and finish the Rangers, but I can’t see New York rolling over easily. Shesterkin has perhaps been out-dueled lately by Vasilevskiy but is still a formidable goaltender. Games 4 and 5 were not easy wins for the Lightning; the young Rangers’ side has come a long way in the playoffs this year, and should not be counted out today. What we saw in game 5 was a tighter effort from both teams and a significant drop in shot totals, not to mention the 4th straight low total. I took the Lightning to win in Game 5, but won’t play them on today’s odds. With the same total line available today, I am back with the under. I expect game 6 to be even tighter and definitely more disciplined. Take the Rangers and Lightning to go under the total.

Rangers are 1-3 on their recent road trip but have stellar lefty Martin Perez (1.56 ERA) on the mound to turn things around. He has pitched 20 innings, giving up only 3 runs, in his last three starts. With just 1 HR allowed this season, he has also been very good on the road. He faces White Sox right-hander Giolito. Giolito has double the ERA and has given up more hits and homeruns that is desirable this season. The White Sox aren’t a strong home team this year, even as a favorite. Neither team had been particularly strong on offense although the Rangers have the edge for power lately. Both pens have also been ok lately.

The difference on Saturday will be the superior performance of Perez. I expect a longer and more stingy outing when compared to Giolito. The Rangers are underdogs, but I believe they will steal this one.  Rangers  to win outright!

OK. So we’re looking to make it 4-0 in the NBA Finals tonight and I like the Under. Both teams have seen a decline in their respective three-point shooting percentages each game and I don’t see the same kind of high-scoring first half (124 points) we had in the last game.

Boston playoff games have averaged just 208.8 points. Game 2 of this series, which they lost, was well below that number. But the two Celtics wins over the Warriors both went Over. This despite them holding Golden State to an average of 104 points in those two games.

The Celtics have averaged 118 points in their two wins in the series. Win or lose, I don’t think they’re hitting that number tonight. The Warriors allow just 105.6 points per game off a loss, which is slightly lower than their overall season average.

During their entire playoff run, Boston has rarely seen two straight games go Over the total. The Over hit each of the first three games in the Eastern Conference Finals (low totals), but that’s the ONLY Over streak for the Celtics in the playoffs. 

Since that run of three straight Overs in the last round, the last three times the Celtics have been off an Over, the games have seen just 184, 196 and 195 total points scored. Play the Under. 

The Phillies are on a tear at 7-0, and have roughed up some very good starters in that stretch. In addition to a potent offense, their bullpen has, for a change, been very effective with an ERA of 2.34 over their last 10 games. The Diamond-backs, light-hitting as usual, are just 2-6, with an extra poor stretch from their relievers (6.19 ERA/ L10 games).

The Phillies’ starter today, Kyle Gibson, has been hit hard in May and June. While he is better at home, opposing batters are hitting over .300 in the last month. Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks. With just one really poor start for the season, he has been very good on the road. After a stellar April, we’ve seen his earned runs total creep up, mainly due to the long ball. Gallen allowed 0 HR in his first five starts and 4 in his last 5.

I favor Gallen as a starter today, but the Phillies have been a tough out recently and the Diamondbacks’ pen is a shambles. Gibson is struggling, allowing 5 runs over just 3+ innings in his last start. All things considered, I am on the over today. The Phillies’ offense vs a poor bullpen could get ugly, and even the weak-hitting D-backs should have their chances against Gibson.

The Lightning looked much more impressive in game 4 and got to Shesterkin for three goals twice in their home starts. They need at least one road victory against the Ranger for a series win, and with Vasilevskiy now playing the way he is capable of (.971 and .933 SV% in his last two starts), tonight could be the night. The Rangers have held serve in this series but face an improving veteran Tampa Bay team, and now have some injuries to consider. While Vasilevskiy appeared rusty after the longish break, Shesterkin has played a lot of hockey and faced a ton of shots, so a fatigue factor must be considered. I’m on the Lightning to break the home ice voodoo tonight and win away.

The best time to take the Celtics, at least in the playoffs, has been when they are coming off a loss. Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, they are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread coming off a loss. Look for that trend to continue in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. 

After exploding in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Celtics fell apart in the third quarter of Game 2. They ended up losing 107-88, their largest margin of defeat in the entire playoffs (previous worst loss was 12). 

The team shot 37.5% in Game 2. At home, they’ll easily improve that number. Three-point shooting has been good in both games. Interestingly, everyone except Jayson Tatum seemed to shoot well in the first game. In the second game, Tatum was the only one to really show up. I’m looking for a more balanced effort in Game 3.

Golden State is an average team on the road, 25-23 with 109.1 points per game scored and 109.0 allowed. They allow six more points per game on the road than they allow at home, which is a big difference. 

Speaking of defense, look for Boston to do a better job on Steph Curry in this game. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS off a double digit loss this year. I figured that the Warriors wouldn’t lose both games at home, which is why I was on them in Game 2. But they’ve lost three of four on the road and aren’t winning both games in Boston. Lay the points.

Winners of 7 straight, the Yankees pitchers have an ERA of under 2 in the last two weeks. They’ve just finished a stretch of 5 straight games when they gave up 1 or less runs PER GAME. Left hander Cortes is leading the pack. Opposing batters hit just .158 vs Cortes in May. He is not overpowering, just wildly effective, giving up just 2 runs over 15 innings in his last two starts. The Yankees won’t need much from their relievers with Cortes on the mound, but if they do, there is no bullpen better at the moment.

The Twins have been hovering around .500 lately, with pretty average hitting and a pitching staff, both starters and relievers, with inflated numbers. Chris Archer is not his old self, but he has been reasonably effective in very short starts this season. Don’t expect more than 5 innings from Archer. While his last start was a 5 inning 1 run effort, his ERA has drifted up over 5 in the last month. The Twins will likely dip into the pen fairly early, and an ERA close to 5.00 lately is not a good look against a team offense as hot as the Yankees’. Did I say how hot? Try .297 BA and a .945 OPS.

The Yankees are obviously favored, but are a fine wager on the runline.  Take the Yankees - 1 1/2!

It is the Nationals’ Josiah Gray vs Miami’s ace Alcantara in the second game of the Marlins’ home series. Gray (4.71 ERA) has pitched well in his last two starts, but has had some ugly outings this year. He has faced the Marlins twice this season, allowing 3 and 4 runs over 11 innings total, but is 4-0 on the road.

Alcantara is on a tear, with three straight victories and a sparkling 1.81 ERA. He has allowed just 1 run with 29 Ks over 24 innings in those three starts. You really couldn’t ask for more.

Both teams struggle for wins, but Alcantara tends to earn all of his. Gray has had some solid run support in a number of his victories, and that will likely not be the case today. The Marlins are hitting surprisingly well in their last 10 games, especially vs right-handers, and better than the Nationals in that period. Both bullpens have been very poor but Alcantara will very likely pitch later into the game than Gray. With some especially short outings by the Nationals’ starters lately, Washington could be in a real bind for relievers today. It seems it is an underdog day today. I am taking the Marlins on the Run line. I believe they are good for the extra runs.

The Lightning enter Game Four down 2-1 in the series and off a home victory. The Lightning have been excellent at home in the regular season and in the play-offs, but they barely eked out a win in the final moment on Sunday. This series will make or break on goaltending and home ice advantage. The Lightning have the home advantage on Tuesday, but goaltending has so far swung towards the Rangers . Vasilevskiy now has three games behind him since a too-long break between series and we are unlikely to see a repeat of Game One's performance. Shesterkin faced 51 shots in Game Three, held his team in the game until the final minute, and has been better than steady to date. You think there isn't just a little healthy rivalry between these two?

The Lightning will be buoyed up by the last minute victory, and are a large favorite vs. the Rangers on Tuesday. For another win they will have to shut down a hot Zibanejad, and put a few past Shesterkin, and there are no guarantees of either. I am looking for another big game from Vasilevskiy and banking on another low total.

The Astros failed me last night. But I’m so confident in them bouncing back today that I’ll gladly lay the -1.5 on the run line.

Benches cleared in the ninth, but it was Seattle that dealt the real blow, winning 7-4. But if you look at the box score, you’ll realize Houston had more hits (10 to 7) and that some more timely hitting (they were 1 for 9 when they had runners in scoring position) could have gotten them the “W.” 

The loss was just the second for Houston over its past eight games. They lead the American League West with a 35-20 mark and they have only played 21 home games (14-7). Seattle is 13-20 on the road and remains five games below .500 overall.

Justin Verlander should dominate the M’s tonight. He has a 0.80 WHIP this year and has lost only one of his last seven starts. That one loss did come to Seattle. But Verlander took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his last start. 

For Seattle, Chris Flexen is still winless away from home and comes into tonight’s start sporting a 4.55 ERA. He started opposite Verlander on May 27th and got the win, but is 1-5 with a 5.26 ERA in seven career starts vs. Houston. Lay the -1.5.

The Nats have won three in a row, but those games were against the Reds. As the road team, they’re up against it here with Adon (1-9, 5.98 ERA) on the mound, facing a Miami team that’s beaten them in five of six previous meetings this season.

Miami was competitive with San Francisco over the weekend, splitting the four-game series. The Marlins may be eight games below .500 right now, but they have scored more runs than they’ve allowed this season. 

Cabrera will start tonight’s game for the home team. He had an outstanding season debut last week, tossing six scoreless innings and allowing just one hit, in Colorado no less! 

Washington’s pitching has been dreadful so far in ‘22 and the team is 1-10 with Adon starts. Adon has made it past the fifth only two times and on the road he’s 0-5 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.

So far, in six head to head battles this year, the Marlins have outscored the Nationals 28-13. They are the better team playing at home. Even though they’ve won three straight, I’d still consider the Nats one of the worst teams in baseball. Lay the price.

The Mets are a very sharp 8-2, off a pair of wins vs the Dodgers. Meanwhile the home-town Padres took 3 of 4 against the Brewers, earning a pair of shutouts. Padres’ left-hander Snell has returned from the IL, and now has three starts under his belt. He has been progressively better in each of the three, and appears to be rounding in to shape, with a 6 inning, 2 run outing in his last start. He faces Carrasco who has a sparkling record of 6-1, but has also been uneven, ranging from an 8 inning shutout to a very rude 8 runs over 3+ innings. Most of Carrasco’s poor starts have been on the road, and opposing hitters are averaging a lusty .283.

The Mets are 3rd in offense, hitting for average and power this year, but drop all the way to 15th vs left- handers. The Padres have not been busting out on offense lately but they have had very solid pitching across the board.

I am on the Padres on Monday. Snell is due, the Mets are on the road & below .500 vs lefties, and Carrasco is a bit of a question mark on these days. Take the Padres to win..

The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Astros in their home series in May. Now they travel to Houston where they have had very little success in the past. Left-hander Robbie Ray starts for the Mariners today. He has been consistently average this season. He still gets his strikeouts, but his ERA for May was 5.24. He has struggled on the road this year.

The Astros are 7-3, and very tough to beat at home. While they are surprisingly just average on offense this year, they are a very robust 14-4 vs. left-handers. Today’s starter, Javier, has only 6 starts this year. He had one poor outing, but otherwise has been exceptional, giving up just 2 runs in his last 3 starts. His only negative is that he doesn’t generally throw for length. No matter. The Astros have the best bullpen in the league, and it is in fine form at the moment.

The Mariners’ pen has struggled to an ERA of over 4.00 for the season and are just 4.23 over their last 10 games.

The Astros are very tough vs lefties, and Ray, this year at least, cannot be considered a premier starter. The Mariners have had no previous success vs Javier, little success in Houston, and there is no comparison between the two teams’ relief corps. Take the Astros to win today.

The Avs can finish the Oilers with a road win tonight. Injuries have now become an issue in the series. The Avalanche have weathered the loss of Kuemper, as Francouz has filled in very well. Missing Kadri and Burakovsky hurts, but the Oilers win miss Kane (suspended) and Yamamoto just as much.

It is very impressive the way the Avs have controlled the Oilers’ explosive offense since game 1, managing McDavid on ice where no one else could. Credit is due especially to Toews and Makar. I expect an all-out siege by McDavid and Co. tonight, but have underestimated Colorado’s defense twice and won’t be burned again. The Oilers are missing two key pieces on offense today. With Draisatl still limping about, the Oilers were already limited in secondary scoring, and can ill afford to lose them. Good as he is, McDavid cannot win on his own. Take the under today.

It’s difficult for me to believe that the Warriors will lose two straight home games. Before a Boston three-point barrage hit them in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Warriors held a double digit lead. They are 4-0 this postseason off a loss, three of the four wins coming by at least 10 points.

Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, the Celtics have not won three games in a row. They are 0-2 ATS off back to back wins in the previous two series, dropping those games by a combined 19 points.

Boston isn’t going to make more than half of its three point attempts again. Al Horford was 6 of 8 from distance while Derrick White went 5 of 8. Those specific contributions are highly unlikely to be repeated in Game 2. 

Golden State is due for a strong effort at the defensive end. They’ve permitted an average of 113.7 points their last five games. For the year, they allow only 103.5 at home.

Steph Curry ran wild in the first quarter, but other than that, there were no standout performances from the Warriors at the offensive end. Lots of room for improvement in Game 2, whether you’re talking Draymond Green (2 for 12 in Game 1) or Jordan Poole (2 for 7). Lay the points. 

Down 2-1 in their road series vs the Cubs, the Cardinals send out the ageless Wainwright to even things up. Wainwright had a couple of sub-par starts in April but has been his usual steady self in May, with a 1.69 ERA and opposing batters hitting just .174 for the month.

The Cubs are hitting well, but their pitching is poor. Starters are over 5.00 ERA for the last two weeks, and relievers are an ugly 6.55 in the same period. The Cubs’ lefty, Steele’s starts have been on the short side. Other than 2 quality starts, he has given up more runs than would be desired, hence an ERA of 5.40. He has been terrific vs. Arizona but most other teams have had the better of him.

While the Cubs are hitting much better than the Cards for the season, the Cards are the hottest hitting team in baseball vs left handers, while the Cubs are just 19th in the league vs right handed batters, just 14-22 in games vs the right.

I am on the side of the old guy on Sunday. Look for the Cardinals to open up on Steele, and their superior bullpen to save this one. Take St Louis to win.

Vasilevskiy’s and the Lightnings’ streak of consecutive wins after losses was broken in Game 2. The question is, can they restart the streak tonight? They are at home, where they have been effective in both regular season and playoffs, and in a must-win situation.

The Rangers badly out-played the Lightning in Game 2, and are healthier, but haven’t been the same team on the road for the season and the play-offs. Other than the outlier in Game 7, their goal production vs the Hurricanes dropped considerably in road appearances. The Rangers have a young team and are likely fired up, but the Lightning have experience on their side. Look for a bounce back from Tampa Bay’s top players, and expect a much better performance from the Lightning. The issue for Tampa is, of course, Shesterkin. Considering his play in this series and last, it is hard to believe that the Lightning can run up the score tonight. Rangers + 1 ½ is a likely outcome, but is prohibitively expensive. I am back on the total. Look for some thing of a goaltender’s duel, and take the under.

Down 2-0, the Oilers are up against it, and need a win.  With home ice, the Oilers will have that coveted last change, so expect to see more from the McDavid line tonight.  The Oilers to date have managed to bounce back in these playoffs, but they face a very fine team who have been great on the road to date. Edmonton's defense and goaltending has not slowed the Avs down.  While I expect the Oilers will test Francouz much more tonight,  I am not confident of an Oiler win. As well as McKinnon's line has played, Kadre has been a beast in the playoffs, and no one has solved him yet. I do expect another fine game from McDavid, the best in the business.  Look for a better result from the Oilers, and take the Over today.

The Mariners are hot, winning five of seven games. The Rangers, after winning 5 of 6, have now lost three in a row. Both teams have solid starters on the mound today. Seattle lefty Gonzales (3.55 ERA) doesn’t overpower anyone but has been getting consistent results, if not wins. Opposing teams, including the Rangers have hit Gonzales well recently, but he usually manages to keep the run totals down. He doesn’t get much support from Mariners’ batters, and his walks to strikeout ratio lately has not been good.

Rangers starter Otto (4.33 ERA) has been very sharp, particularly in his last 3 games. One extremely poor start skewed his ERA, but otherwise, he has pitched very consistently, giving up just 4 runs in his last 18 innings.

While the Rangers’ bullpen failed them in the ninth last night, they have been very good for the year, especially in the last few weeks. The Mariners’ pen has struggled this year, with a real inability to finish games. They have converted just 8 of 15 save opportunities.

I am on the Rangers tonight. They hit left handed pitching well and have had good success vs Gonzales. The Mariners have not been great on the road, and some of Gonzales’ recent stats are concerning. Look for Otto and the bullpen to put it together tonight. Rangers to win.

The Red Sox are the hottest hitting team in the MLB over the last two weeks with a .309 batting average, a .915 OPS, and 24 home runs. Oakland’s batting average is 80 points less and has less than half the homeruns in the same period. With all that power, The Sox still can’t seem to win two games in a row. Friday night could be the night for the Sox, as the A’s, at 1-6, struggle to win at all, and have been limited to a single run in 4 of 10 starts.

Eovaldi starts for the Red Sox, and other than one miserable outing, he has been very solid. Eovaldi has one ugly stat this year; he has given up 16 home runs to date, accounting for almost all of his earned runs. On the plus side, Eovaldi pitched a 9 inning 2 ER complete game in his last appearance.

He faces Kaprielien, who returned from the IL on May 1, and has already pitched 5 starts. Not one of his outings has been over 5 innings, and in his last two games he has given up a run an inning. He too has been a victim of the long ball.

Boston’s bullpen has been roughed up but not nearly as badly as the A’s relievers, who are struggling along at a 6.23 ERA.

If you are going to give up the long ball, the A’s are a far saver option than the Red Sox. Not only do I think the Sox will win on Friday night, I think they will do it in style. Take Boston on the run line, at – 1 ½.

I think everyone expects a much better game out of the Lightning in Game 2, particularly considering Vasilevskiy’s and the Lightnings’ near magical ability to bounce back after a loss. Vasilevskiy was rusty and he must be smarting after such a disappointing start. The Lightning need at least 1 win on Rangers ice, to win the series, but Shesterkin stands in their way. The Lightning had nearly 40 shots on him in game one with limited results. I expect a goalie duel tonight, but am not confident of a Lightning victory at MSG. A sharp goalie has and can steal a series, and Shesterkin has the hot hand at the moment. I was wrong on the total last time, but I think I have it right today. Take the total to go under.

The Diamondbacks had almost played themselves in to respectability before they were swept by the Dodgers. They bounced back against the Braves, taking the series, and have been a .500 road team this year. Merrill Kelly, their best pitcher in April, has come back down to earth in May, with an ERA of over six and double the base on balls. His start length has also slipped. He has been ugly in the early innings.

Meanwhile the Pirates swept the Dodgers in LA, and are 6-4 L10. They have hit comparatively well lately, although neither team is considered a powerhouse. Brubaker has been the reverse of Kelly, with good success in May and an ERA of 2.65. His last two appearances have been 5 and 6+ inning shutouts. Relief pitching has been reasonably effective lately for both teams, although the edge goes to the D-backs.

Brubaker has yet to win a game this year, but today might be the day. He has impressed, and Kelly has not lately. It could be close, but I expect the Pirates to continue in their winning ways, at least for tonight. Take Brubaker and the Pirates to win.

The Western Conference Finals was an unkind series for yours truly, but I went 4-2 in the L6 games of the Eastern Conference Finals. It was Boston coming through as a 10* play in Game 7. For Game 1 of the NBA Finals, I’m focusing on the total.

In a series that figured to be low-scoring going in, the Celtics & Heat combined to score 212 or more points in four of the seven games. Now Boston faces a Golden State team that has averaged the most points per possession in the league during the playoffs.

The Warriors have averaged 114.5 points/game in the playoffs, which is more than they averaged during the regular season. Assuming they can reach, or just come close to, that average, then it shouldn’t be much of a problem seeing this game go Over the total.

The fewest points scored by the Warriors over their last six games is 109. This is the lowest O/U for any of their playoff games.

The Warriors shot better than 51% in all three home games last round. That’s pretty significant as Dallas was the #2 team in points per game allowed in the regular season. Take the Over. 

It is hard to imagine the Av’s and Oilers in a low scoring game after game one’s results. The worst fears around goal-tending came to pass with Smith pulled and Kuemper out. Francouz saw action against Nashville and played effectively, but was overwhelmed, as were both of the starting goaltenders, on Tuesday night. The game finished with 84 shots. Short of a goalie absolutely standing on his head, it will be all about the offense again on Thursday.

I expect we will see more from the Mc’s, (McDavid and McKinnon), and while I am sure both team will be working to adjust, I am confident of another high total. In fact I am surprised the total is not even higher for game 2. Take the Over again.

The Yankees have struggled at 5-5, with the offense struggling lately, but they are home vs the Angels and have been dominant in Yankee stadium. The Angels are just 3-7, and lost have lost 6 straight. For the Angels, pitching has been the culprit. Starters have a 5.00 ERA while relievers are even worse at 5.66 ERA over the last two weeks.

Reid Detmers starts the 2nd game of the doubleheader today. It is amazing how often that a pitcher struggles after a no hitter. Detmers is a case in point, allowing 8 runs in the 9+ innings since. He has only had one (very) good start in May, and his strikeouts to walks ratio is not impressive.

His opponenet today is Jameson Taillon (2.45 ERA), who at 5-1, has been not just good, but also consistent, with excellent length. His last start was an 8 inning shut-out.

The Yankees’ relievers have not been to their usual standard, but Tailllon is not likely to need much support. The Yankees crushed the competition yesterday, and with Angels starter only going 2+ innings, the Halos’ ineffective bullpen will be very thinly stretched in a doubleheader today. Take the Yankees to find their form at home today. New York to win outright.

The Rangers face the Lightning on a short turn around, and will finally face a #1 goaltender, and a hot one at that. Let’s not forget that the Rangers did not dominate on offense this year. The matchup between goaltenders will likely define this series. Tampa could be inconsistent in the regular season, but experience counts in the playoffs, and the Lightning have been very solid in their first two series. They were not the best road team in the regular season either, but again have turned that around in the playoffs. The Lightning stymied the Panthers, the league’s top offense in 4 straight, with Vasilevskiy allowing just 3 goals total, so Tampa stand a very good chance of shutting down the Rangers who were 17th in scoring this season.

The Rangers had some success against the Lightning in th regular season, but are on a quick turn around after a tough seven game series against a very well-rested Lightning team. Their biggest weapon against the Canes was Shesterkin, and he will likely be just as tough in this series. The Rangers were badly out shot in the last series, and will not be facing a team like Carolina that could not win on the road. It is early days in this series, and I will wait and see on picking a side, but I am firm on the total today. Take Game 1 between the Lightning and Rangers to go UNDER.

The Rays have been beaten up by the Rangers two days running, but Tampa may have better success on Wednesday. Rays’ starter Springs has sprung, it would appear. A long reliever turned starter, he is another one of those fine young pitchers the Rays seem to find at will. He now has 4 starts under his belt, with two shutouts and a 2 run appearance in his last three starts. He threw for 6 innings in his last start so is nearly stretched out. He appears to be the real deal, perhaps similar to Ranger Suarez of last year.

Rangers’ starter Gray (5.56 ERA) has not been very effective this season, other than a one-off vs the Yankees. He will give the Rangers 5 or 6 innings, but it isn’t always pretty. He gave up 5 runs in his last start.

The Rangers have been hitting well in the last two weeks, with a batting average of .274, and an OPS of .778. They also hit left-handers very well. The Rays can’t match the Rangers in either offensive stat at the moment, but I will still take the Rays’ bullpen any day. I am on Tampa on Wednesday. Look for the Rays to run up a lead against Gray and the bullpen to hold it. Rays to win.

The Jays are on a roll, the White Sox, no so much, however they have Kopech (8 starts, 1.29 ERA) on the mound today, who has been nothing short of brilliant this year. Kopech spent most of 2021 as a reliever, but it is as a starter this year that he has really shone. He has given up just 6 runs in 8 starts, with opposing batters hitting just .103. The Jays haven’t faced Kopech as a starter. His last outing was a 7 innning shutout.

The Jays counter with Ryu, who has bounced back from a poor April and a stint on the IL. Ryu can be the master of the slow stuff, but when things go wrong, they go very wrong in a hurry. He has had 3 solid starts in a row now, giving up just 3 runs over 15 innings.

The White Sox’ bullpen has struggled lately with an ERA of 5.26. The Jays’ has been better, but not stellar, and their slumbering offense appears to be waking up in the last couple of weeks. The Sox are hitting well for average, but have been short on power for much of this season.

With the Jays’ first real look at Kopech and Ryu on a roll, I like the sounds of the total today. Take the Sox and Jays to go under.

The Oilers are off an unexpected series win vs the Flames, and most certainly, it ws all about offense and speed.  And McDavid. Other players came up big as well including late edition Kane.  The Oilers will meet their match today in a well-rested Avalanche team, also exceptionally fast, and big, and with another very good Mc-player.

Goaltending could be an issue in this series, although Smith got the job done, inspite of a couple of low moments.  Kuemper gave up more than his share of goals in the series vs the Blues as well.  I am not sure that low totals and a high octane series are very compatable.

In the regular season, it was all about the home team and the over when the Av's and Oilers met.  By all rights, this game should be fast and furious.  I am banking on the expected to happen until I see otherwise.  Shop around and take the over.

Tuesdays Brewers and Cubs starters faced each other earlier this year. It was no contest, with the Brewers winning 9-1. The Brewers are on the road, but have proved to be a very good road team this year, especially as a road favorite. They have won 3 straight, including 2 against the Cubs, and have, in addition to their fine starters, quite a bit more pep in their bats than last year.

Brewers left handed starter Lauer, had an off-day a couple of starts ago, when he gave up 4 runs and 3 home runs over 5 innings, but he has been very sharp before and since. Cubs’s starter, another lefty, Steele has struggled at times and even when pitching well has had no support. He had a couple of fine efforts, then the bottom fell out vs. the Reds (7 runs in 2+ innings) in his last game. His starts have been very short; just 3 of 9 lasting over 4 innings.

The Cubs have been hitting well, but have lost 5 of 6, and one reason for the poor success has been the bullpen, with an ERA approaching 6.00 in their last 10 games. By contrast, the Brewers relievers are cruising with an ERA of under 2.00. The combination of a pitcher like Steele with a short start and the Cubs’ poor pen won’t win many games. I am on the Brewers on Tuesday.

Injuries have affected the seasons of both starters today. Boston’s Wacha was going gangbusters in April, but has not been the same since a stint on the IL. Batters hit .143 against him in April, and .255 in May. The Reds’ ace, Castillo (4.35 ERA) missed all of April, and has just 4 starts to date. He has been better in each start, with a 2 run 5 inning effort last time out.

The Reds have won 4 of 5, beating a couple of good Giants pitchers in the process. The Sox are in a “win one, lose one” pattern, with some huge totals, for and against, in their last 10 games. The Reds are also hitting well, and are much improved since their abysmal start.

Neither bullpen has performed well lately and neither pitcher has pitched deep into the game, although Castillo should be stretched out by now and might be due. Especially concerning is Wacha’s play lately. It is a cool day in Fenway, and quite possibly a losing day for the home team. Take the underdogReds to win today.

The Hurricanes have been completely dominant at home this season and throughout the play-offs, but the goal-tending in Game six might put this streak in question. Shesterkin, if anything, appears to be improving, but Raanta’s breakdown in game six could be an issue. Raanta’s play in this series has been just as lopsided home vs. away as the Hurricanes’, with a much higher save percentage in Carolina. The combination of net-minding and/or defensive play really has been superlative in all of the Hurricanes’ home dates.

Let’s not forget that it is not just the Canes who struggle on the road. The Rangers were not been the same team on the road, at 26-18 away and 33-10 at home this season. Even after last games’ higher total, I still think the most likely outcome today, is a low score. Look for Shesterkin to continue his fine play, Raanta to rebound, and Carolina to limit the Rangers’ opportunities. I am again wagering on the Under today.

The Rays are 6-4 L10. The bad news: they have scored just 9 runs in their last 4 games, all vs. the Yankees. The good news: the Rays’ pitching staff held the Bronx Bombers to just 5 runs in 3 games.

The Rangers have won 4 of 5 games, scoring 28 runs in their 4 game series against the A’s. An obvious observation, the A’s aren’t the Yankees; a much tougher series faces the Rangers, starting on Monday.

Rasmussen is first up for the Rays. At 5-1, with an ERA of 2.68, he has had a successful start to his season. He had a stretch of 5 starts where he gave up 1 run or less, before yielding 3 runs in his last start. If there is any complaint against Rasmussen, it is that he doesn’t pitch much past the fifth inning. This is not such a concern when you have the Rays’ bullpen.

Glen Otto starts for the Rangers. He pitched well in his last two starts after being shelled by the Red Sox. Otto gives up a fair number of base on balls, and has not pitched well at home to date. He does not throw for length either, but has also had a solid season.

The Rangers have out-hit the Rays lately, and while the Rays are no powerhouse this year, one has, again, to consider the teams’ recent opposition. The Rangers’ relievers have been sharp lately, but I’ll take the Rays’ bullpen any day. Tampa Bay is a perennially well coached team. If there is one thing I have learned the hard way, “all things being even close to equal, always take the Rays.” I am wagering on the Rays on Monday.

I can’t say that I expected there would be a Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but here we are. The Heat stayed alive with a 111-103 win on Friday night and get to host the deciding game. They are still underdogs, however. While that may sound tantalizing, look for Boston to advance to the NBA Finals.

Defensively, the Celtics had totally shut down the Heat for two games before Jimmy Butler exploded for 47 points in Game 6. Besides Butler, the rest of the Heat's starting five has scored just 89 points in the last three games combined. I do not think they can count on another game like that from Butler.

Boston is 15-4 straight up off a loss as a favorite this season and 14-5 against the spread. They are also 31-16 ATS on the road. Most important of all though is the fact the Celtics are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS off a loss in this postseason.

All five wins have been by at least eight points and three of them have been by more than 20. They’ve already won a Game 7 in these playoffs, over Milwaukee, though that one was at home.

The last time the Celtics lost back to back games was late March. Before that, it was mid-January. Everyone was writing off the Heat going into Game 6, a mistake in retrospect, however now it is time to buy low on Boston

The Pirates face the home-team Padres today, and each team has a young and, so far, successful starter on the mound. Pirates’ right-hander Contreras has been up and down from Triple A a couple of times, but in between has pitched masterfully with just 1 run given up over 11 innings. His last outing was a five inning shutout. I doubt we can expect much more length than that today.

Padres’ lefty, Gore is the more tested of the two, with 7 starts and an ERA of 2.06. He gave up 3 runs over 5 innings once, but otherwise has been exceptional. As far as relief pitching goes, the Padres have a definite edge; the Pirates’ lair has struggled lately, where the Padres’ relievers have been razor sharp in their last ten games.

Pittsburgh can’t seem to hit a lick this year, dragging up the rear for the full season. They are particularly feeble vs left- handed pitching of late. Th Padres aren’t much better for power, earning just 3.3 runs per start to date.

Neither team has faced the opposing pitcher, usually an advantage to the pitcher. Both starters have looked very composed to date. While the Padres should be favored today, the lop-sided odds suggest a close look at the total.  Offenses considered, I will take these two pitchers to continue their fine play.  Take the Pirates and Padres to go under.

The Rangers are at home in a must win situation. This series has been remarkably consistent, with each team winning at home, and the NHL’s best and 2nd best defensive teams keeping the score down. Can we expect a Rangers win tonight? It likely depends on Shesterkin. Carolina has out-shot the Rangers in their last three games, limited NY to just 17 shots last time out, and finally broken through with a power play goal in game five. They have played much better on the road vs the Rangers than they did vs. the Bruins, without results. Yet. With Raanta 0-4 in away games, I expect Carolina to be even tighter-checking on Saturday, and look for some special teams success. The Rangers will be all in, but will have their hands full. With Shesterkin in net and the balanced defence of the Hurricanes to deal with, you can count on another low scoring affair. 5 ½ goals is still available. I am on the UNDER. Take it and run!

The Dodgers have won 8 0f 10 games, and are top of the heap or close in all pitching and offensive categories. Gonsolin (1.62 ERA), who has been their best starter this year, has given up tw o runs twice in8 starts, both against the D-backs. Otherwise it has been one run or less per start. He is young and doesn’t pitch more than 5 or 6 innings per start, but the Dodgers bullpen, which had slipped a bit, is now back in top form.

The Dodgers’ bats are really tearing up the league at the moment, with 9 or considerably more runs scored in 4 of 10 games. Merrill Kelley, Saturday’s starter on Saturday, gave up 8 runs in 2 innings to the Dodgers earlier in May. Kelley was great in April, but has fallen from grace in May, with his ERA dropping to 6.53 this month.

The Diamondbacks are also hitting well this season, especially in the last couple of weeks, but I don’t think they will score many runs vs Gonsolin and crew on Saturday. The Dodgers have been very hard on the D-backs, outscoring them 38-13 in their last 4 meetings and are already up 4-0 in the second on Friday. Even if Kelley bounces back, which I am not betting on, the D-backs’ bullpen is really struggling lately. I am wagering on the Dodgers on the run line, at - 1 1/2.

After a surprisingly high-scoring start, this series has become what we all thought it would be, a slugfest. The last two games, both Boston wins, have gone Under as only 184 and 173 total points were scored. We very well may see more than that here tonight, but expect Game 6 to still stay Under the total.

The Heat are facing a must-win here to force a Game 7 in Miami. With their starting five having scored a total of just 60 points the last two games, it would be in the team's best interest to ratchet up the defensive intensity. Fortunately, I don’t think that will be much of a problem.

The Celtics are just 18 of 67 from three-point range in the last two games. That’s well below 30%. Over the course of the entire postseason, the Heat are allowing just 100.2 points per game.

But, for Miami, the problem is that they are only averaging 98.2 points themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals while barely shooting 40%. The Celtics allowed the fewest points in the league during the regular season and have been just outstanding at the defensive end the last two games. 

With the teams combining to miss 61 of the 78 three-point attempts in Game 5, there’s no reason to expect either side to hit 100 tonight. The Under is 6-2 in the Celtics' last eight games when favored. 

The Royals haven’t had much success against the Twins at just 1-5 in recent match-ups. They haven’t been beating anyone else lately either, losing 6 of 7, and allowing 6 or more runs in each of those losses. Pitching, and in particular, relief pitching has been the culprit with a bullpen ERA approaching 7.00 for the last 10 games. The Twins, on the other hand, are 8-2, thanks to their starters, who have an ERA of just 1.57 in their last 10 starts.

Both these teams are hitting well. The usually anemic Royals have reached heady heights, climbing to 8th in the league over the last 10 games. Don’t count on this necessarily continuing. The Twins are a decent hitting team for the season who are also hitting well over the last two weeks. They certainly flexed their offensive muscle in their last series against the Royals.

Bailey Ober (2.55 ERA) starts for the Twins. He was on the IL for three weeks in May, but returned in the same form, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings. Other than a 4 run first start, Ober has given up 1 run or less in all of his other starts. Royals’ pitcher Keller’s first starts were fine, but he has slipped badly in his last three starts. His ERA has doubled, climbing to 4.15 in May. The temptation will be to leave Keller in too long. He struggles in later innings, but the Royals cannot count on their bullpen.

The Twins are dominant at home, and almost unbeatable as a home favorite. The Royals aren’t impressive at all on the road. Keller might have his hands full on Friday. Off a loss and with their winning streak snapped, the Twins will be extra-motivated against a struggling Royals team. Take the Twins on the run line, at – 1 ½.

The Blues showed their mettle and beat the Av’s in Colorado in come from behind style in game five. The Avalanche have beaten the Blues twice in St. Louis this season and, given their history in the second round of the playoffs, will not want to take any chances on a game seven. Look for all out offense from the Avalanche, but as in game five, don’t underestimate the Blues. St Louis is built for the playoffs, and actually out-performed Colorado in offense in the regular season.

I expect another high scoring game. The only two games that went under in this series were when Binnington was in net. Husso and Kuemper have not impressed, although the nature of this series has not favored defensive play. The Blues and Avalanche have a history of high-scoring games. We have seen three straight overs and I expect another one today. Take the Avalanche and Blues to go over in Game six.

The Rays lost at home to the Yankees on Thursday, and will look to lefty Jeffrey Springs (1.32 ERA) to turn things around. Springs will have a pretty good chance in doing so. A long reliever turned starter, he is another one of those fine young pitchers the Rays seem to find at will. He now has 3 starts under his belt, and his 2nd and last starts were 5 inning shutouts. While not completely stretched out, he appears to be the real deal, perhaps similar to Ranger Suarez of last year. While the Rays’ pen failed them last night they are generally a very good bullpen, so Springs’ length is not critical today.

The Yankees rely on Taillon (2.95 ERA) today. His worst start came just 2 appearances ago, giving up 3 runs over 5 innings, but in 7 other starts, it has been 2 runs or less. He gives up a fair number of hits, hut has limited hard contact to date. They Yankees generally have a very fine group of relievers, but are missing 3 key members and are struggling lately.

The Yankees could be missing a trio of big boppers today, and while their offense has been dominant this year, they are just as fallible vs quality pitching as anyone else. They have little experience or success vs Springs. All things considered, I expect a relatively low scoring affair this evening. Take the Yankees and Rays to go Under today.

Picking a winner tonight between the Flames and Oilers is a very tough call.  The Flames are up against it, and have been dominant on home ice this season, but they have not been able to solve a high-flying McDavid and the rest of the Oilers offense.  Goaltending has been a huge question mark for both teams, and an enormous pair of goalie gaffs in game four had a decided impact on the game.  Markstrom's issues are unusual, but the Oilers' speed on offense has been phenomenal.  I am not sure that any goaltender would have much success at this point.

The Flames likely will regroup today, and do have a very fine and balanced attack themselves, and considering the play we have seen to date, a low scoring affair is unlikely.  The Total has climbed as high as 7 today, and I too expect another high scoring game.  Shop around for the best odds and take the total to go over.

Dallas kept its season alive with a 119-109 win in Game 4. Despite never trailing after the first quarter and enjoying a 29-point advantage entering the fourth, things did get a bit too close for comfort near the end of the game. Thankfully, here we need not worry about the Mavericks having to win by any kind of margin. I’m taking the points.

The “world” will likely be on Golden State to respond at home where they haven’t lost in this postseason. However, the Mavs did build a sizable halftime lead here in Game 2 (72-58) before imploding down the stretch. 

After getting off to a horrible start in Game 1, the Mavs have played the Warriors tough in this series. Their season is still on the line and while no team has ever fought back from a 3-0 series deficit, we know that we’ll be getting Dallas’ best effort from here on out. 

Golden State is surprisingly only 4-7 straight up following a double digit loss this year. 

Dallas had its biggest edge from long range in Game 4. While I think it’s unlikely they can be +30 again, they have made more threes than the Warriors in all four games. The pointspread has yet to come into play in any Conference Finals game so far. It may very well here. 

The Brewers face the Cardinals in St Louis, and both have premier starters on the mound. Left handed Eric Lauer (2.16 ERA) starts for the Brewers. Lauer has had a couple of slightly off outings this season, but most have been very high quality. His last start was a 7 inning shutout. He has shown great control, and has struck out 54 batters to date.

The Grand old man, Adam Wainwright starts for St. Louis. Wainwright had a couple of rough outings in April, but has been coming up roses in May. Opposing batters are hitting just .119 this month.

I am favoring the Brewers on Thursday for a couple of reasons. The Brewers are very tough on right-handers and are one of the few teams that has had success vs. Wainwright in the past. While the Cardinals’ hitting stats are huge over their last 10 games, two very high scoring games have skewed those stats. It has been a different story vs. good pitching. The Brewers are not the anemic team of last year, hitting in the middle of the pack or better this year.

My main concern with the Cards is their bullpen. While both starters will likely pitch for length, the Brewers have a huge edge in relief pitching, with a 2.34 ERA over the last 10 games compared to 5.14 for the Cardinals. The Brew crew knows how to finish a game , with 20 saves recorded this season, tops in the MLB. The Cardinals have just half that number. Take the Brewers, an underdog, to steal this one from the Cardinals on Thursday.

With the series now tied, Carolina returns home where they have been dominant all season, and unbeaten in the playoffs. The Rangers are far less impressive on the road, but have the huge wildcard in this series which is Shesterkin. After mixed results in the Penguins series, he has been lights out in series two. Raanta and the Hurricanes allowed an uncharacteristic 4 goals last game, but their ability to dominate on home ice cannot be overlooked. Their inability to score in this series is also significant. A very low scoring win for the Hurricanes is the most likely result, but a Rangers’ victory is not out of the cards. The Canes have yet to give up more than 2 goals on home ice in the playoffs, and facing the League’s best goalie, another low total is a more dependable wager than picking a side on Thursday. I am sticking with the Under again today.

The Rangers unexpectedly swept the Angels in their home series, but have struggled since, losing 5 of 6 games. The Angels have been streaky, recently winning 3 straight. Yound lefty Detmers starts for the Angels. Famous now for his no hitter, he has otherwise been pretty average, with relatively short starts and a 4.15 ERA. Other than the one start, he has consistently struggled after the third inning.

For Rangers starter Otto, it has been the reverse. One very bad outing (8 runs over 3.2 innings) has skewed an otherwise reasonable start. In his other 4 starts, he has given up 2 runs or less. With rare exceptions, neither pitcher has thrown for length this season, and both bullpens have struggled recently. The Angels’ pen has an ERA of over 5.00 in their last ten games, whilethe Rangers relievers’ ERA is over 4.00 in their last five games.

There is no contest on offense. The Angels are at the top of the heap in OPS with the Rangers bottom-feeders on offense for the season. I think it will be the Angels offense and both bullpens that decide this game. Look for plenty of runs late in the game, and take the OVER today.

This Eastern Conference Finals between Boston and Miami has seen the two teams exchange blowout victories. The series is 2-2 heading back to Miami after the Celtics won easily in Game 4, 102-82 as seven-point favorites.

The Celtics have yet to lose back to back games in these playoffs. Going back to their second round series vs. Milwaukee, there’s also been just one instance of them winning back to back games. But if you think this is leading to an endorsement of the Heat for Game 5, guess again.

Boston was not favored in Games 1 and 2 here in Miami. They are slight favorites tonight. Game 1 they were missing Marcus Smart and Al Horford. Smart (questionable for tonight) was out again in Game 4, but that hardly mattered as Derrick White started in his place, scored the game’s first seven points and finished with 13-8-8.

Only Tyler Herro sat for the Heat in the last game. He and Kyle Lowry are listed as questionable tonight. After the Heat scored just 82 points in Game 4, which included just 18 from the starting five, I understand why many would feel there’s a Miami bounce back forthcoming. But I just happen to think Boston is better. 

The Celtics’ two wins in the series have been by a combined 45 points. The Heat’s two wins have been by a combined 17 points. Boston has been up at the half in three of the games. Jimmy Butler is clearly not himself with just 14 points the last two games. Lay the points. 

The loss of Binnington seems to have been a very big blow to the Blues, and their anger against Kadre certainly backfired. The Blues replacement goaltender, Husso, while excellent in the regular season, has not been able to show the same stuff in the play-offs. Kadre and the Avalanche embarrassed the Blues at home in game 4 and the Avalanche have been dominant on home ice this season. Should we count the Blues out today? The odds-makers would certainly suggest so. Call me contrarian, but I think that the Blues, with their backs to the wall, will make a game of it today. They bounced back in Game 2 after being badly outplayed in the opening game. With the very high odds available on the Av’s, the puck line looks very respectable. Look for a  bounce-back from Husso and St Louis.  Take the Blues on the puck line to keep this one close.  St Louis + 1 1/2...

In the Flames/Oilers series it seems that we can expect the unexpected. After 2 barn-burners, game three came in with the under. The stat I did not expect to see was Mike Smith with a lower save average than Jacob Markstrom. 40 year old Smith has been a very successful goalie and looks to have found some of his “old” form, but Markstrom will need to be better if the Flames are to have any success. It is not really the fault of Markstrom; the Oilers have been dazzling on offense. The Oilers are peaking right now and that McDavid line is unstoppable. Even a wounded Drysatl was full marks in game three, and Kane had a hat trick on Sunday and is sixth in play off points. Perhaps one exceptional line can win a series after all. The Flames do not yet have a solution for the Oilers’ speed, and really only won Game one in Calgary through goalie ineptitude. I am on the home side tonight. Take the Oilers to win

Do or die for the Mavericks tonight as it’s win or go home (rather, stay home). They face a seemingly insurmountable 0-3 series hole, something no team in NBA history has ever climbed out from. So how should you play Game 4? 

I like the Under. The Under is 33-14-1 in all Mavs’ home games this year and it did cash in Game 3 where only 209 total points were scored. While I do think Dallas is going to score more tonight than they did Sunday, let’s also not forget they are giving up just 101.1 points per game at home this season. That’s tops in the NBA. So don’t rule them out yet.

The Under is 4-0 the last four times Dallas has been favored. The Under is also 4-0 the last four times Golden State has been an underdog.

The Warriors have shot exceptionally well in this series. But Game 3 (46.9%) saw a steep decline from the first two games where they shot 56.1% at home. For tonight, expect shooting along the lines of Game 3, or probably an even lower percentage.

Luka Doncic has put up 40 or more points each of the last two games. Only Hakeem Olajuwon and LeBron James have ever gone three straight Conference Finals games with 40+. So Doncic should cool off. We should also see fewer free throw attempts than we did in Game 3. There were 59 FT attempted Sunday, up from 54 and 37 in the first two games.  

Someone lit a fire under the Red Sox hitters, and boy, have they responded, in particular Devers, JD Martinez and Story. They are the hottest hitting team in baseball with a .285 BA and a huge .854 team OPS. The White Sox are better than usual lately, but pale in comparison. Dylan Cease starts for the White Sox. He has been generally great, but has had a couple of off days. His last start was very good but in the previous one, he gave up 6 runs over 4 innings to the Yankees. He has a phenomenal strikeout total of 67 to date. There are concerns with Cease; he has given up more hits and walks than usual lately and the Red Sox have had very good success in the past against him.

It took until his second start in May to get going, but Boston’s starter Pivetta has been sensational since, giving up just 2 ER in a whopping 22 innings over 3 starts. His last start was a complete game effort, allowing just 1 run. The Sox have won 8 of 10, and are even getting solid relief pitching at the moment.

The White Sox are favored on Tuesday, but I am on the Red variety for Tuesday. Boston is a very good hitting team on an absolute tear at the moment. Cease has been up and down lately. I think Boston has a real shot at winning, but if nothing else, I expect them to keep this one close.   Take Boston on the run line at +1 1/2.    

One very good and one exceptional goaltender, and the first and second-ranked defensive teams in the regular season have made this a very low-scoring series. The Hurricanes have been completely consistent to date, losing all road games, but game 3 was their best road effort yet, out-shooting the Rangers by a wide margin. Special teams played a big role. Essentially, the Rangers scored on their PP, and the Hurricanes couldn’t. I am not convinced that Carolina will not win on the road tonight, but Shesterkin in top form (as he seems to be now) is a huge limiting factor. Look for Carolina to do what they do best, and hinder the Rangers’ offense. They were the regular season’s best penalty-killers, so should have an edge in the limited penalty opportunities. All three previous games have gone under and 5 ½ goals is now available. Take today’s game to continue the pattern of low scoring meetings. I am wagering on the Under again.

The Blues are at home, and undoubtedly stirred up by the questionable hit on Binnington.  Husso is back in the net, and while he shone in the regular season, he hasn't shown as well in the playoffs.  The Blues will be fired up, but are in a precarious position, and will need to focus on the game.  Kadre will be a target today, but like him or not, he has been a force and a distraction in this series. 

The Avalanche bounced back after being stymied in the 2nd game in Denver, and can only benefit from the loss of Binnington.  I am looking for a bit of a hornet's nest today, with a lack of discipline a real possibility, and more than the average numbers of goals scored.  With two very good offenses ready and waiting today , take the Over.

This series continues to be higher scoring than expected, although Game 3 probably should NOT have gone Over the total. There were 22 points scored over the final 81 seconds of the game. That’s pretty ridiculous. The Over is now 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals. I think that trend ends tonight.

Miami jumped out to a huge early lead in Game 3 and never trailed, though Boston did get within one in the fourth quarter. Despite that wire to wire win, the Heat look to be at a major disadvantage heading into Game 4 as five key players are listed as questionable, among them Jimmy Butler. The others are Lowry, Tucker, Strus and Herro. I just don’t think Miami is going to score a lot of points tonight.

Bam Adebayo did have 31 on Sunday. But that came after he scored just 16 points total in the first two games and 38 the previous four. Asking him to match, or even exceed his playoff-high (31), seems like asking a lot here.

I also don’t think Boston’s Jaylen Brown is going to offer up a repeat of his Game 3 performance where he scored 40 - ten more than he’s had in any other game in these playoffs. 

Coming into this series, we all knew about the defensive prowess of the two teams. Miami is still only giving up 100.6 points per game in the playoffs while Boston is allowing 103.5. The oddsmakers were smart to set low totals for the first three games. But, with the Heat & Celtics now a combined 16-0 Over their last 16 Conf Finals games, I saw the Under is due for a turn. 

Phillies’ starter Zack Wheeler took his time getting going this season, but is now pitching at an elite level. He has an ERA of 1.35 in May, with 23 strikeouts to 2 walks, and just two home runs-against for the year. He has thrown 7 innings or more in 2 of 3 last starts.

He faces young lefty Tucker Davidson (5.87 ERA), whose only start this year was a five inning shutout, fresh off the bus from triple A, He gave up 5 runs in 2.2 innings of relief in April.

Both teams are just over .500 in their last ten games. The Phillies have the edge in offense, particularly against left-handers. The Braves have the better bullpen but will likely have to dip in earlier.

I’ll take the proven ability of Wheeler and the Phillies’ offense over the unproven talent of Davidson.  After that adrenaline-driven first start, a rookie often returns to earth on the 2nd. Take the Phillies to win.

With the Panthers facing elimination on the road, and Vasilevskiy playing stand-out hockey, another Tampa Bay victory is in the cards. It is telling that the Panthers, with the top ranked offense in the regular season, have just 1 player in the top 25 for playoff points. The Lightning are second only to the Oilers in goals scored, and although Kucherov has been sensational, the Lightning are getting balanced scoring. Vasilevskiy is a money goaltender. Note his uncanny ability to rebound after a loss. Well, he hasn’t lost in five games now, and I expect another fine outing from him. And, let’s not underestimate the role of the Lightning defense in this series.

The Panthers’ style of play may just not translate in the playoffs. The Lightning are a very experienced side and know how to finish. I am wagering on them sweeping the series. Take the Lightning to win.

For the second series in a row, the Mavs return home for Game 3 down two games to none. We all recall what happened against Phoenix in the last round. Now I’m not saying the Mavs pull that off again, but I do like them here in Game 3. 

Certainly, Dallas feels that this Western Conference Final should be all squared away at one game apiece. They led Game 2 for most of the first three quarters and were up 14 at half. Luka Doncic had 42 points. But it was not to be as Golden State raced past them in the fourth.

The Mavs have won five straight at home in these playoffs since losing Game 1 of the Utah series (without Doncic). Something I have mentioned before is that they are #1 in the league in fewest points allowed at home (101.0 per game). I can assure you that the Warriors will not be shooting 56% again as they did in each of the first two games.

Though Coach Jason Kidd quipped that his team “died by the three” in Game 2, I expect the Mavs will continue to fire from behind the arc in this game. They’ve attempted 93 threes in the series. They made 21 in Game 2. Golden State shot a higher percentage, but will not repeat going 50% from deep as they did in Game 2. 

Golden State has failed to cover each of its last four road games. Dallas is 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Lay the points

This "barn burner' style series returns to Edmonton with the series tied up, not something the Flames wished for.  The Oilers are very good at home, and the home team has been very successful when these two teams meet.  The Flames appeared to have no real answer for the Oiler's blazing fast play, and Markstrom has not been his usual dominant self.  The Oiler's goal-tending, although better in game two, is still an issue.  I expect Sutter, the Flames' no nonsense coach, to have his club motivated tonight, but McDavid is really carrying the Oilers, and showing that he really is the very best.  I wouldn't want to pick a winner tonight, but another high total seems likely.  Take tonight's total to go over again.

The Dodgers faced the Phillies in LA, and were uncharacteristically thumped in the first 3 of 4 games, giving up 29 (!) runs in those 3 games. Since then, they have won 7 straight, including 3 against those same Phillies. Gonsolin ( 1.63 ERA) starts for the Dodgers on Sunday. He has arguably been their best pitcher this year, showing great consistency, giving up less no more than 2 runs a start, with 3 shutout appearances mixed in.

The Phillies are 1 -6 since that rude outburst against the Dodgers, and after scoring all of those runs in three games, have managed only 12 in the 7 games since. Eflin (3.90 ERA) starts for the Phillies and the verdict on him is “pretty good”, with 3 real quality starts in 6 appearances, including his last one. The Dodgers do have previous experience with, and considerable success against Eflin.

The Dodgers offense has been on a tear the whole season, but are particularly potent just now with a vicious .879 OPS. The Phillies have plummeted all the way to the bottom of the barrel in their last 7 games, hitting just .194 with a miserable .501 OPS. Playing against Gonsolin and the Dodgers’ bullpen is not a good place to expect to turn things around. The Dodgers are tough on righties and formidable on the road. I am on the Dodgers to extend their winning streak on Sunday.

Florida is a very good road team, and will need to be tonight, facing the Lightning down 2-0 and in Tampa Bay. That formidable and explosive offfense has not been evident yet, and the inept PP in a big issue. Vasilevskiy is an even bigger issue.  He has been terrific in net for the Lightning, and appears to be peaking at just the right moment.  As good as the  Panthers are on the road, they face a very good home team tonight.  The Lightning have won all three meetings between the two clubs this year, and are experienced play off performers, not something to be said about Florida.  I like Tampa Bay's chances for 3-0, but I especially like the total today. Bet on Bobrovski and Vasilevskiy, and take the total to go under.

It’s been a surprisingly high-scoring first two games in the Eastern Conference Finals with 225 and 229 total points scored. Each team won once in Miami and neither game was all that close. With each game going Over by more than 20 points, I’ve got a feeling the public will look at this number being too low. I think it’s too high.

I had the Under in Game 1, which was a mistake. But banking on a Boston shooting resurgence for Game 2, I took the Over. That resurgence is exactly what took place Thursday night. The Celtics not only made 51.2 percent of all shots, they were also 20 of 40 from three. 

Even at home, they won’t match that kind of three-point output. The Celtics are only averaging 13 made threes per game for the year, same as Miami, who led the league in 3ptFG%. 

Boston started fast in the two games at Miami. They averaged 66 points in the first half. Look for Miami, who is allowing only 100.5 points per game in the playoffs, to slow them down. The Under is 5-1 the last six times the Heat have been coming off a game where they gave up 125 or more points.

The Celtics are of course also an elite defensive team. They led the league in scoring defense in the regular season. The Under was 3-1 in their home games in Round 2 vs. Milwaukee. All three Unders saw less than 200 total points scored. Take the Under here.

The Blues and Avalanche move to St Louis, with the series split. Binnington was solid again in game 2 as the Blues rebounded with a solid and deserving win. They shut down the Av’s dynamic offense, limiting them to just 31 shots-for after the 54 shots allowed in game one. The Blues are a good home team and the Av’s are much less dominating on the road. The Avs are still favored, and with that round two monkey on their back are expected to respond in a big way. Binnington seems to have found that “lights out” form, and the Blues’ size and structure make them a tough play-off match up. The Blues limited a very good Wild offense to just 5 goals in the last three games of the first round. Now with that critical Blues road win, this is a very different series.

Tonight’s game could be tighter than expected. I think St Louis can keep this game close but the odds on the puck line are very high.  Today's best bet is on the total.  Take the Blues and Avs to go under today.

Off a win last night, he Twins meet the Royals for the second game of the KC series. The Twins are just over .500 on the road, but the Royals have struggled at home this season. Joe Ryan (4-2, 2.39 ERA), the Twins starter today, has been a bright light this season, and shutout the Royals in April. With just one sub-par start in 7 appearances, he has also been good on the road.

Royals’ starter Brad Keller was terrific in April, but things have gone somewhat south in his two recent starts. The Twins have had previous success vs. Keller.  Keller has seen opposing batters' average rise by 100 points in May, and given up 3 home runs in his last two starts.

The Twins have the edge in relief pitching for the season and in recent games. The Royals have shown a bit more offense recently, but the Twins are a better offensive team as well.

I am on Ryan and the Twins today. Watch the Royals continue to struggle at home and take the Twins to win again.

The Jays bats have been a big disappointment lately. Thought to possess a formidable offense this year, they are hitting just .215 vs right-handers, and have sunk to 27th in the league in OPS. To put this in perspective, the lowly Reds have climbed from near worst to 7th, with a .755 OPS in their last two weeks. The Jays are getting good results from starting pitching but have squandered some very fine outings. Manoah (1.71 ERA), who has arguably been their best starter was the victim of a poor effort from the offense plus questionable play in the field last time out. He has not given up more than 2 runs in 7 starts to date.

The Reds have also getting good starting pitching, including rookie Hunter Greene’s first quality start of his career. Greene has monster stuff but has not been able to harness it until his last start. The result was a 7+inning no hit shutout. Just about anything is possible from Greene on Saturday, but the way the Jays have been hitting, another fine outing is a possibility.

The Jays are a huge favorite against the Reds, an unwarranted favorite considering the two teams’ recent action. Friday’s game ended in a 2-1 final score. Greene is just the kind of pitcher the Jays have struggled with in the past.  Take Saturday's total to go under.

Game one was quite a ride, with a total of 15 goals scored.  I expected the Flames to step out on offense, but 9 goals was a surprise.  Markstrom allowing 6 was a second shock.  Cooler heads will prevail today but considering the firepower here, a high total is still likely.  The Oilers goal-tending had some very large question marks throughout the season, and those issues appear to be unresolved.  I expect a much better performance from Markstrom and the Flames' defense today, but McDavid will likely still do some damage.  The Flames have a balanced and potent offense, and likely will prevail, but the total is the better bet today.  Take this game to go over.

I like Dallas to rebound here from its embarrassing Game 1 defeat. The Mavericks scored only 18 points in the first quarter and when you do that against a team like the Warriors, it’s pretty much “all over but the shouting.” The Mavs ended up shooting just 36% for the game, including 23% from three. 

You’ve got to expect better shooting here tonight from the road underdog. Over the previous three seasons, Dallas is 29-9 ATS after a game in which it was held under 100 points. They are 19-4 ATS in that situation this season. Also, the team is 12-4 ATS in 2021-22 when coming off a double digit defeat.

I can’t fathom Golden State shooting 56.1 percent again like they did in Game 1. Dallas has been an excellent defensive team all season long and held Phoenix under 100 points three times in that series. 

Dallas should shoot much better from long-range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. Doncic, Brunson, Bertans and Bullock went a combined 6 of 29 from behind the arc. 

Even with Games 3 and 4 taking place at home, the Mavericks obviously want to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-2 hole. They fought their way out of it against Phoenix, but it would be much tougher to do that against Golden State. Take the points in Game 2. 

Shesterkin re-found his form and Raanta was excellent in game one, as he has often been in the playoffs.  While the Rangers dominated play for much of the game, the Hurricanes, 1st in defense in the regular season, do not give up many goals.  They are also unbeaten at home in the play offs.  The Rangers were gifted the first series, scoring well against a third string goalie.  Goals may be scarce today.  Carolina has played a very disciplined style in their last two outings, staying out of the penalty box, but will struggle to put the puck in the net against Shesterkin.  I like the Canes' chances, but prefer the total today.  Take the New York and Carolina to go under the total.

Here is a turn around. The offense-starved Tigers are out-hitting the Guardians in their last 7games. Not that the Tigers have been great, but the Guardians are hitting just 180, with an OPS of .574.

Civale starts for the Guardians, and unlike last year when he was unbeatable early, the season could hardly have gone worse for him. He has a 9.85 ERA, very short starts, with opposing batters hitting well over .300 against him.

His mound opponent, lefty Tariq Skubal has been very good, with a couple of sub-par starts compared to 5 quality appearances including 3 shut outs. He has pitched into the 6th and 7th, and is also getting some run support.

Detroit is not gifted on offense. They have produced 4 or more runs in just 3 of 10 games, but they will get an opportunity against Civale. They also have a very good bullpen this year. The Guardians have not excelled vs left-handed pitching, and their relievers have been unimpressive lately. Civale’s lengthy struggles do not suggest an immediate turn-around. Mark my words,I am wagering on the Tigers to win on Friday.

The Mariners have cooled off, winning just 1 of their last 4 games, and were roughed up by the Red Sox last night. Their big acquisition, Robbie Ray (4.62 ERA) has been a disappointment this year. He still gets a ton of strikeouts but is giving up too many walks and home runs to be really effective.

His mound opponent is Michael Wacha, who has missed a couple of starts due to injury, but has been unexpectedly sensational, giving up just 2 runs in 5 starts. The big question will be today if he can return to to same early season form. The Red Sox have the edge on relief pitching lately; the Mariners’ bullpen has an inflated 5.62 ERA over their last 10 games.

The Red Sox have been the hottest team in the league in hitting over the last week. Now 3-1 in their last 4 games, they appear to be recovering from their abysmal start. It is hard to say how Ray will pitch, but Wacha has been dominant, and the Sox have an edge in hitting and bullpen. I am on the Red Sox to continue their winning way.  Take the Red Sox to win.

It took them 20 minutes to get going, but from the second period on, the Avalanche were very much like their namesake, unstoppable. Only an incredible 51 save performance from Binnington kept the Blues from embarrassment. Will we see a repeat from Binnington? That kind of outing must be exhausting; I can’t see any goalie keeping the score down if Colorado continues such dominant play.

I expected more of the Blues, but good teams have put up some high totals against them this season. We will see how they perform at home.

In games that mattered coming down the stretch the Avalanche were the complete package, getting solid defense and goal-tending as well as their scintillating offense. Colorado is a huge favorite, and rightly so today. Look for the Avs to solve Binnington. Take them to win on the puck line at -1 ½.

Boston made almost 40 percent of its threes in Games 6 and 7 against Milwaukee. That number fell to 32.4 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami, who was the league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season, made only 33.3 percent of its threes. Yet the game still went Over rather easily with the teams combining to score 225 points.

The defensive reputations of the two squads are well known by the oddsmakers and looking back in retrospect, it seems they set a trap with the Game 1 total being so low. The O/U for Game 2 is now a few points higher, not a surprise, but it is not high enough.

In addition to the expected improved three-point shooting from both teams, we know that Marcus Smart and Al Horford are both banged up for Boston. It’s not looking good for Horford in Game 2 while Smart is now “probable.” But dealing with a foot injury, you can’t expect Smart to resemble the same guy who won Defensive Player of the Year.

Jimmy Butler scored 41 for Miami in Game 1. He probably won’t do that again, however his teammates are likely to lend more support, making up whatever “decline” there is from Butler.

These teams have combined to go over in 12 straight Conference Finals games. Both are averaging 108 points per game in the playoffs. Go with the Over. 

analysis soon

It is game one in the Battle of Alberta, a series of huge importance in that Province. The Flames and Oilers both have very potent offenses but Calgary has a solid edge in defensive play. This very easily could be another of the home team-dominant series we have seen thus far. The Flames have ruled the roost at home this season, and against the Oilers, winning three games to one.  Calgary, away from the stifling pace set by the Stars, may be able to step out this series. Oilers’ goalie Smith has had mixed results in the playoffs, so I will take the consistent play of Markstrom in net. The wild card today is the Oilers’ McDavid, who is playing inspired hockey, but the Flames have a much more balanced team, and with home ice advantage, have the last change. This early in the series it is difficult to predict the likely total, but I am convinced of a Flames home victory. They aren’t the best odds, but it is my NHL best bet today.

I think most are underestimating the Mavericks coming into the Western Conference Finals. This is a team that has already eliminated Utah and Phoenix, two very good teams, and just delivered an emphatic 123-90 win on Sunday in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. So no one should be underestimating them.

Luka Doncic averaged 32.6 points per game against Phoenix. In four regular season matchups vs. the Warriors, he averaged 31.5. That was the fourth most points scored against Golden State in a single season since Steve Kerr became head coach. 

Gary Payton II would have been the primary defender on Doncic, but he’s out with an injury. So I think Golden State is going to give up more points than what you might think for Game 1. Dallas did have the one bad offensive game vs. the Suns where they scored only 80 points. But since then, they scored 113 and 123. 

The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 straight up and 8-0-1 against the spread in the 2021-22 season following a game where they allowed 90 or fewer points. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS off their previous five SU wins and have only covered two of their last eight games overall.

In case you hadn’t figured it out by now, I’m taking the points in Game 1. Doncic is playing at an elite level and the Mavericks have the higher net efficiency rating through two rounds of playoff action. 

The Astros crushed the Red Sox on Tuesday, bouncing back from a rare loss the night before. One of the league’s top teams at the moment, the Astros are getting great pitching. Garcia, one of the bright lights, has been very sharp in May. He is 2-0 in two starts, giving up just 1 run over 12 innings. His opponent, Sox’ right-hander Pivetta (5.08 ERA) has turned his early season around after a shaky start, but even if Pivetta throws a third quality start in a row, there is still the Sox’ bullpen to deal with. They have not been up to snuff, with a recent ERA of over 5.00, a distant second when compared to the Astros’ relief staff. The Sox were forced to use 6 relievers on Tuesday so may be short-staffed for Wednesday as well.

The Astros have been a fine road team this year, and are hitting for average and power, especially against right handers. The Sox are just 5-9 at home, 10 -17 vs righties, and not the same threat on offense. My bet is on Garcia and the Astros to win on Wednesday

The Giants seem to have the Rockies’ number both at home and away this season, sweeping the Rockies in San Francisco, and now up 2-0 in Denver. Logan Webb (5-1, 3.48 ERA) starts for the Giants on Wednesday. His last start was very good but he seems to generally give up a few more runs than expected this year. At 5-1, he has been a pitcher who gets great run support, a quality not to be underrated. He faces Freeland, the Rockies’ well paid lefty. Freeland (1-4, 4.91 ERA) has been a bit of a loose cannon. His first two and last starts were very poor, with some very good ones mixed in. He will have to be very good today and throw late into the game if the Rockies have any plans on winning . The Rockies’ bullpen has really struggled, giving up lots of the wrong stuff, used heavily, and with an ERA of over 7.00 in their last 5 games.

The Rockies can hit, but not quite as well as SF at the moment, and the Giants’ bullpen is a definite step up from Colorado’s. The Rockies were able to get to Cobb yesterday but the Giants’ bullpen stood fast. Look for a good start from Webb, and who knows what from Freeland, with the Giants running away in the late innings. Take San Francisco on the run line at -1 ½.

The Blues won their last three games vs. the Wild in impressive fashion, getting great goal tending from a resurgent Binnington, and scoring 5 goals a game. The Blues have a very balanced and impressive attack and are tough to play against in a play-off situation.

The Av’s swept the Predators, but were playing against a second string goalie. No one doubts Colorado’s offense, but the Blues will not be such an easy opponent. The Avalanche haven’t played in well over a week, so when does rested become rusty? The Blues have had enough time to restore, but a better connection to game action.

I think today’s game may be closer than expected. An Av’s win would not surprise me, but don’t count a motivated and experienced Blues team out entirely. The Blues were a fine road team in the regular season and in the playoffs this year. Take the Blues on the puck line at +1 ½.

The Celtics are 7-4 Under in the postseason with their games averaging 210.3 points. The Heat are 8-2-1 to the Under with their games averaging just 204.6 points. So it shouldn’t come as a shock to see a low total for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. I believe the number should be even lower.

Boston led the league in scoring defense during the regular season. Miami is #2 in defensive efficiency in the playoffs. The team that was #1 in defensive efficiency, Milwaukee, is who the Celtics just eliminated. But it was a low-scoring series with five of the games going Under and seeing no more than 204 total points scored.

Going back to the first round, Miami has allowed less than 100 points in six of its last eight games. They’ve allowed more than 103 only one time. 

Look for Boston to rightfully focus on containing Jimmy Butler in this series. Butler has been excellent in the first two rounds, but his shooting - particularly from three-point range - seems likely to decline. I make that assessment based on his regular season numbers.

Boston’s last three visits to Miami have all resulted in the game going Under. Don’t look for many points in Game 1 either. Take the Under.

The Giants recently swept the Rockies in San Francisco, and now face them in Denver. Right handed starters Cobb and Kuhl face each other again. Cobb’s April was short and sub-par, and his first start in May was horrid, but since then, he looks back to normal. He held the Rockies to just 1 run over 5+ innings last week.

Kuhl started the season very impressively, but was hit hard by the Giants last time out. Kuhl has a career ERA of 4.33 so he might be starting to show his true colors. He won’t get much relief from the relievers, who collectively have been very poor with an ERA of 6.50, and opposing hitters with a strong .273 batting average. The Giants’ pen has been better but nothing special with an ERA of 4.76 L5, but are at least better than the Rockies. The Rockies essentially had a bullpen day on Monday, using 7 pitchers, so may be short-staffed in the bullpen for Tuesday. Both these teams can hit but the Giants rocked the Rockies for 24 runs in three games, then the light weight Royals scored another 26 runs vs. Colorado in the next series.

The Giants are 6-0 vs the Rockies in Colorado. There is no reason to think that the Rockies’ pitching staff will recover over night. Take the Giants to win.

Off a pair of wins vs. the Giants and a rain day, the Cardinals run out Miles Mikolas (1.49 ERA), one of the hottest pitchers in the league. It is not a surprise; a healthy Mikolas has always been an effective pitcher. He has done all that has been asked of him, pitching for very good length, and limiting hits & runs. And had great run support in his last two starts!

His mound opponent, Mets’ right hander Williams (5.73 ERA) is more of a long reliever with just one previous start this year. It was not successful. The Cardinals have hit Williams very hard in previous meetings.

Consider this more of a bullpen day for the Mets. Neither pen has been particularly effective of late, but expect the Mets to dip into theirs far more than the Cardinals. The Cardinals have been swinging very hot bats recently. The Mets’ offense has been solid this year but has slumped recently.

Mikolas will be the difference in this game. Expect a similar long start from him; he has been very consistent. Some of the shine has come off the Mets after their very strong start. Take the Cardinals, a slight underdog, to win today.

I like the Flames chances today, but the odds are prohibitive considering how close the series has been.  Hats off to the Stars for playing their tight defensive game successfuly against an offensively-gifted team and to Oettinger who has saved this series for the Stars to date.  The Stars were not a good road team this year and with Markstrom in net, their offense will be limited today but the possibility of overtime or an empty net goal makes today's total look a little light. I expect an all-out assault by the Flames' forwards.  Shop around and take the over today.

The Rangers are at home, facing the Penguins in the deciding game. Crosby is still questionable, a huge blow if he is out or compromised. Domingue will likely still be in goal for the Penguins, and the Rangers appear to have solved him; he has allowed 4 goals in his each of his last 2 games. Shesterkin has not been his Vezina-quality self in this series, giving up 3 goals in each of his last two games, and with a very unlikely save-percentage for the last part of the series.

The Rangers will have the final change, a distinct advantage in a tight series. Every game in this series has gone over, and it isn’t unreasonable to expect the same today. Crosby or no, the Penguins won’t go easily.

Take the Rangers and Penguins to go OVER again today.

Taking the Under is typically a wise move in the NBA Playoffs when a series reaches a Game 7. That is precisely what I’ll do Sunday as it is winner take all between the Bucks and Celtics. 

Four of the six games in this particular series have been low-scoring with 204 or fewer total points scored. Games 4 and 5 both went Over, but then it was back to the Under in Game 6. I had the Under in that penultimate game. 

The first eight Milwaukee playoff games all stayed Under. The Bucks have played great defense in the playoffs, not only allowing just 100.5 points per game, but also the fewest number of points per possession (#1 in defensive efficiency). 

Boston led the league in scoring defense during the regular season (104.5 points per game allowed) and then have been slightly better here in the playoffs, giving up just 103.9 points per game. 

Will the Celtics hit 17 threes again as they did in Game 6? Not likely! This feels like a game where if either team gets to 100 (points), then they will come out the victor. I’m wagering on the Under in Game 7. 

Nationals starter Corbin finally connected with a good start, 5 innings of shut-out ball, but April was a very cruel month for him. He gave up 20 runs over 19 innings, so it will take another good start or two to believe his season has turned around. His mound opponent, the immortal Verlander has been as always, one- hitting the Twins over 8 innings in his last start, and giving up just 3 runs in his last 3 starts.

The Astros lost to the Nationals on Saturday which makes them 9-1 in their last 10 games. Other than Saturday’s game they have limited opposing teams to 3 runs or less, with a trio of shut-outs thrown in. Outside of last night, relievers have been particularly sharp for the Astros. They are an astounding 12-2 on the road and 10-2 vs left handed starters.

Not so the Nationals. Relievers have an ERA of over 4.2, and while the offense has been mostly solid, they’ve won just 3 of 10 games. They are a dismal 4-14 at home, and 7-15 vs right handers.

Look for the Astros to bounce back today. Take Houston on the run line at – 1 ½.

Padres’ starter Joe Musgrove (2.08) has been the picture of consistency, allowing no more than 2 runs per start in 6 outings. His last two have been 7 innings in length. Like his opponent on Sunday, he has 41 strikeouts.

His opponent, the Braves’ Kyle Wright (3.03) opened the season very well, but struggled his last time out allowing 6 runs in 4+ innings. His hits-allowed total has climbed noticeably in May.

The Braves pulled out a late win vs the Padres on Saturday, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a losing record at home and vs right-handers. The Padres are 11-5 on the road, but have lost a little of their shine lately and are also just 5-5 L10. Both bullpens have struggled in their last 5 games; the Braves’ has given up 8 runs in two games, and Padres’ pen, with a collective ERA of well over 4.00 lately, dropped four runs on Saturday.

Kyle Wright’s rising hit and base on balls count indicates that he is flirting with trouble.  He found it last time out, and he may find it again on Sunday.  Musgrove has much more of a track record, and with him pitching into the seventh inning, allows less bullpen time for the Padres. I am wagering on Musgrove and the underdog Padres tomorrow.

The Yankees have crushed the White Sox in the first two games of their series, and dominated most everyone else they have faced lately. Today’s starter Montgomery has pitched well enough for the Yankees, giving up 2 runs over 5 or 6 innings in his last three starts. He will be backed by NY’s cracking good bullpen. Two runs is pocket change for a Yankees’ squad that has scored 25 runs in the last two games.

The White Sox run out Dallas Keuchel today. Two of his last three starts have been adequate, but opposing batters have huge averages against him this year. Stanton and Donaldson in particular have owned Keuchel over the years. The Yankees have also had great success against Chicago’s bullpen.

Pure and simple, the White Sox lack the horses to run with the New York’s offense, and are at a significant disadvantage in pitching expectations today. Take the Yankees -1 ½ today.

Down to the wire, and on Toronto's home ice, the Leafs and Lightning will likely do what they do best, which is step on the gas on offense. Both Campbell and Vasilevskiy are allowing more than 3.3 goals a game,and with save percentages of below .900.  The Leafs' fine forwards, and in particular, Austin Matthews are bound and determined to make it out of the first round this time, but the Lightning have been here before.  Five of the six games in this series have gone over, and with an expected tight game, overtime or an empty net is a distinct possibility.  Take the Leafs and Lightning to continue the trend and go OVER the total today.

Home ice has been such a huge advantage in this series that it is hard to ignore. Carolina was very successful against the Bruins in the regular season, 32-8 at home, and has the better performing goal-tender in Raanta. The last change has been a huge benefit in this series; no road team has even come close to winning a game. The ‘Canes have been very successful in limiting the Bruins’ big three at home, but will need to still do a better job with Marchand today, and hope for some power play opportunities.

There are just too many plus factors for the Hurricanes to go against them today. This team was the leading defensive team in the league, and defense ultimately wins games and series. I am wagering on Carolina to win this game and this series.

The Padres won big in their series opener vs the home-team Braves. The Braves are now under .500 at home. Very veteran Charlie Morton (5.65 ERA) starts for the Braves on Saturday. His last start was a five inning shutout, but he has struggled in his first five. He has been poor early in his games, allowing 12 of his 19 runs in the first two innings. The Padres have had some success with Morton in the past. Is Uncle Charlie back on form or was the last start a one-off?

Lefty Sean Manaea starts for the Padres. The year began well, but his last three starts have been very average. He has 38 strikeouts, but has also given up 4 home runs in 4 games. The fifth inning has killed him this year with his ERA nearly 12. for that inning. The Padres’ bullpen has been poor in their last 5 games win an ERA over 4.80. The Braves pen had been showing somewhat better but it was pounded by the Padres on Friday night.

The Padres are 11-5 on the road, and have seen the over on the road 7 out of 8 times. The Braves have also seen their share of overs lately.  These two teams managed 17 runs on Friday.  I don't expect both of Saturday's starters to fare well, and neither bullpen has been very dependable.  I am wagering that Saturday's game will go over.

Memphis sure fooled me in Game 5, beating Golden State by 39 points despite not having Ja Morant. The Grizzlies have won 21 of their 27 games without Morant in 2021-22 and have basically led throughout the last two games. So I’m pretty confident that the underdog keeps this one close. 

Two of Golden State’s three victories in this series have been by a combined four points. As I just said, last time they were here at home, they were behind most of the way only to get bailed out by a Steph Curry fourth quarter surge. (The Warriors ended up winning by three).

Memphis has led for nearly 46 of the 48 minutes in the two games since Morant got hurt. All season long, the Grizzlies have demonstrated tremendous depth. Seven players were in double figures in the last three. Three scored exactly 21 points. 

Steve Kerr is still not coaching for the Warriors because of COVID-19. It seems to have had an effect. Also, the Warriors have scored 101 points or less in three of the last four games.

The Grizzlies are 23-15 ATS as underdogs this season, winning 20 of those games outright. They are also 19-5 ATS vs. the Pacific Division, including 7-2 ATS vs. the Warriors. More importantly, they are 4-0 ATS this postseason when behind in the series. Memphis has covered four of the five games so far while Golden State is just 1-6 ATS its last seven overall.

The Flames and Stars have been less than their namesakes as far as offense goes.  With the Stars at home on Friday and with the final change, don't look for it to get any easier for the Flames' offense to break out.  Both goaltenders have been terrific, and the Stars have continually set the pace of this series. Dallas is a far better team when playing at home.  With Calgary's potential on offense, it is tempting to expect a break-out, but kudos to the Stars for sticking to their game plan. Expect more of the same slow tempo tonight and take the UNDER.

Don’t look now but the Diamondbacks are 7-3 and working their way into semi-respectability. The Cubs are the reverse at 3-7 L10, getting short and poor outings from their starters. Friday’s starters are also going in different directions. Cubs’ lefty Smyly (3.04) threw shut-outs in his first two starts but has regressed since then. His starts have lasted just 4+ innings in his last two, and the long ball has been an issue. Right-handed starter Zack Davies has been quite the reverse. He had an ERA of 5.40 over 4 starts in April, but has come around in May with 2 shutout appearances lasting 11 innings.

Neither bullpen is anything special. The D-backs’ pen was absolutely shelled last time out, and is barely adequate otherwise. The only advantage is that Davies will likely pitch longer into the start.

While the starting pitching is the usual culprit, the Cubs’ relievers’ ERA is hovering around 4.00 and has been used a lot.

The Cubs would appear to have a considerable advantage on offense, but looking closer, they have been hitting very poorly vs right handed pitching, batting .187/10. The Cubs have also faced some of the best starters in the league lately, so could be due for a bounce-back. The Diamond-backs are hardly a powerhouse on offense, but are hitting 50 points better vs lefties over the last 10 games. I don’t see both of these starters faring well on Friday, and neither bullpen is of shut-down quality. I will be interested to see if the D-backs continue their success at home (4-2) and against left-handed pitching.Let us also see if the Cubs’ bats can return to form. I am wagering on the Cubs and Diamondbacks going over the total.

Boston gave Game 5 away at home and now finds itself in a situation where it must beat Milwaukee two straight times. The Celtics were up by 14 in the fourth quarter on Wednesday, but could not hold and some really lousy play down the stretch cost them that game. The Bucks' last two wins in this series have been by five total points though and I don’t want to play them either tonight.

After Milwaukee’s first eight playoff games all went Under, the Over has been the winning bet in each of the last two games here. There were 224 and 217 points scored in those games. Look for less tonight. Jayson Tatum had 34 points in the last game for Boston. But he’s clearly been bothered by a wrist injury and won’t match that in Game 6.

It’s interesting that the two Overs in this series have come with Boston’s Robert Williams III on the bench. Williams could be back for Game 6.  That would be huge for Boston to have one of its premier defenders back in the lineup. Remember though that the Celtics led the NBA in scoring defense during the regular season. 

Milwaukee is averaging only 101.6 points per game in this series while shooting 42.7%. Pretty amazing that they are in a position to move on. Giannis Antetokounmpo can’t be counted on for 40 points every night though and Kris Middleton remains out. 

Games in this series have averaged only 206 points. Take the Under. 

Two very fine starters face off in Miami on Friday evening. Lopez and Burns have done it all this season, with 6 starts each, low ERAs, and good length. Burns is a strikeout machine, while Lopez has given up just 4 runs. Three of them were in one slightly off-color start, but in his last outing, he threw 8 innings of shut-out ball.

Miami’s bullpen has been better than average, but the Brewers’ pen has given up some big numbers lately. The Brewers, with a good start this year, have now lost 4 of 5, and 2 of 3 of those losses were against the lowly Reds. They have had no success in previous meetings vs Lopez. Miami has won just 2 of 10 games, but 7 of those 8 losses were by just 1 run.

I like Lopez’s and Miami’s chances today, but considering their lack of success in past meetings (1-6) vs the Brewers, will hedge my bet. Take Miami + 1 ½.

We turn to the total for this critical Game 6 between the Suns and Mavericks. Dallas must win here to stay alive, or Phoenix moves on to its second straight Western Conference Final. I say to expect a low-scoring affair tonight in “Big D.:

The Mavs only give up 101.3 points per game at home. That is #1 in the league, almost two points better than the second best team. Phoenix averaged 97.5 points in the two games here in the series.

The Under has hit each of the last three games in this series. Dallas could only muster 80 in Game 5, a sad showing where they hit just eight threes. They certainly will score more tonight. But this is a team that over its last eight games has topped 103 just three times.

After shooting above 50 percent in their first eight playoff games, the Suns have finished below that mark in each of the last three games. That shouldn’t be all that surprising. It’s hard to consistently make more shots than you miss.

The Under is 31-14 this year in Dallas home games. It’s an average of 209.2 points per game scored here. Another Under is in the cards tonight.