Boston gave Game 5 away at home and now finds itself in a situation where it must beat Milwaukee two straight times. The Celtics were up by 14 in the fourth quarter on Wednesday, but could not hold and some really lousy play down the stretch cost them that game. The Bucks' last two wins in this series have been by five total points though and I don’t want to play them either tonight.

After Milwaukee’s first eight playoff games all went Under, the Over has been the winning bet in each of the last two games here. There were 224 and 217 points scored in those games. Look for less tonight. Jayson Tatum had 34 points in the last game for Boston. But he’s clearly been bothered by a wrist injury and won’t match that in Game 6.

It’s interesting that the two Overs in this series have come with Boston’s Robert Williams III on the bench. Williams could be back for Game 6.  That would be huge for Boston to have one of its premier defenders back in the lineup. Remember though that the Celtics led the NBA in scoring defense during the regular season. 

Milwaukee is averaging only 101.6 points per game in this series while shooting 42.7%. Pretty amazing that they are in a position to move on. Giannis Antetokounmpo can’t be counted on for 40 points every night though and Kris Middleton remains out. 

Games in this series have averaged only 206 points. Take the Under. 

Two very fine starters face off in Miami on Friday evening. Lopez and Burns have done it all this season, with 6 starts each, low ERAs, and good length. Burns is a strikeout machine, while Lopez has given up just 4 runs. Three of them were in one slightly off-color start, but in his last outing, he threw 8 innings of shut-out ball.

Miami’s bullpen has been better than average, but the Brewers’ pen has given up some big numbers lately. The Brewers, with a good start this year, have now lost 4 of 5, and 2 of 3 of those losses were against the lowly Reds. They have had no success in previous meetings vs Lopez. Miami has won just 2 of 10 games, but 7 of those 8 losses were by just 1 run.

I like Lopez’s and Miami’s chances today, but considering their lack of success in past meetings (1-6) vs the Brewers, will hedge my bet. Take Miami + 1 ½.

We turn to the total for this critical Game 6 between the Suns and Mavericks. Dallas must win here to stay alive, or Phoenix moves on to its second straight Western Conference Final. I say to expect a low-scoring affair tonight in “Big D.:

The Mavs only give up 101.3 points per game at home. That is #1 in the league, almost two points better than the second best team. Phoenix averaged 97.5 points in the two games here in the series.

The Under has hit each of the last three games in this series. Dallas could only muster 80 in Game 5, a sad showing where they hit just eight threes. They certainly will score more tonight. But this is a team that over its last eight games has topped 103 just three times.

After shooting above 50 percent in their first eight playoff games, the Suns have finished below that mark in each of the last three games. That shouldn’t be all that surprising. It’s hard to consistently make more shots than you miss.

The Under is 31-14 this year in Dallas home games. It’s an average of 209.2 points per game scored here. Another Under is in the cards tonight.

If Vasilevskiy’s amazing record of rebounding after a loss is to continue and Tampa Bay is to stave off elimination, he and the Lightning will have to better control the Leafs’ impressive offense. I am not sure if the Lightning are ready to bow out, especially at home. The trend in this series since the second game has been towards the over, but I am expecting tighter, more conservative play in game 6. The Leafs’ addition of Giordano has solidified their defense, and Campbell, to date in the series at least, has arguably out-played Vasilevskiy. In the end defense and goal-tending wins games, and both teams will play that way today. Look for a result similar to game one and take the UNDER today.

Home ice has ruled in the Carolina/Boston series, and the Bruins' big three have benefitted from the final change.  The Over has also ruled; the tendency with such defensively successful regular season teams is to lean towards the under, but it hasn't been that kind of a play-off series.  Carolina has given up 5 goals in each of the Boston dates, and has historically seen the over more often that not when facing the Bruins in Boston.  I do expect more than 2 goals from the Hurricanes today, however the Big Bad Bruins are down to the wire.  Look for all-out effort from the pest and the rest, and take the over today.

Philadelphia must win here to stay alive. The good thing is they are at home where they’ve already beaten the Heat twice, by 20 and 8 points. It’s difficult to imagine the 76ers’ shooting not improving from the last time out. Game 5 marked the fourth time in these playoffs that the 76ers were held below 100. They averaged 117 points the next time out, the previous three instances.

Similarly, look for Miami’s shooting to decline in Game 5. They were 7 of 30, then 7 of 35 from three-point land in the previous two games here in Philly. 

No one on the Sixers scored more than 17 points in Game 5. Think that might change here? With Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, I’m expecting at least two Sixers players to top 20 tonight.

Other than Jimmy Butler, only Bam Adebayo in Game 4 has turned in a 20+ point effort for the Heat over the last three games. 

Philadelphia is 17-5 straight up, 14-8 against the spread this season following a sub-100 point game. The previous time they got held below 90 (Game 5 vs Toronto), they responded by scoring 132 in the next game. Lay the points here.

I like the Warriors to close out the Grizzlies Wednesday night and also to cover the spread. Memphis won’t have Ja Morant, which is a big loss even if the team is 20-6 (straight up) this season without its star point guard and also turned in an admirable effort in Game 4 Monday night.

But you can’t expect Golden State to go 9 of 35 on three-point tries again like they did in the last game. The Warriors also had a bad night from three in Game 2 (7 of 38). The next game they bounced back to make 17 of 32 from beyond the arc and shot 63.1% overall. 

Memphis shot a similar three-point percentage in Game 4 (25.7%). The difference is that without Morant, their chances of improving aren’t as great. Let us not forget that even when Morant was healthy, the Grizzlies needed three huge comebacks in the first round to eliminate Minnesota. 

The expectation is that Steve Kerr will again not coach for the Warriors as he remains in health and safety protocol. But that doesn’t really concern me. Golden State is 12-0 SU all-time in the playoffs when associate Mike Brown fills in as the head coach. 

Golden State should smell “blood in the water” here and be looking for the kill. It is in their best interest to end this series tonight with the chance Phoenix could move to the Western Conference Finals with a win tomorrow. The Warriors winning here and that Phoenix-Dallas series going seven games would be the dream scenario. Lay the points tonight. 

The Mets meet the home underdog Nationals in the 2nd game of the series. Mets won the first game, and have played well this season. They are top 5 in League batting and pitching, and are a very good road team. Megill starts for NY. At 4-1, with an ERA of 2.43, he has 3 shutout starts, including one against the Nationals. The verdict on the supporting act, the bullpen, is “pretty good”. They have a 3.60 ERA in their last five games.

Th Nationals can hit, but it is their pitching, both starting and relief, that lets them down. Aaron Sanchez (ERA 8.56) will start on Wednesday. It has been a poor season for Sanchez, and he has passed that statistic of ineffectiveness of a run per inning. I don’t expect sudden success from Sanchez or the Phillies bullpen for that matter.

The Nationals have been poor at home, and especially as a home underdog (1-6!). They are just 6-13 vs right handed starters. Look for the offensively effective Mets to run up the score on Sanchez and Washington’s pen. Take the Mets – 1 ½.

It is do or die for the Rangers tonight. They play against an aging but immensely talented and experienced Penguins team, running out its third string goalie, Louis Domingue. It ought to be no contest in net with Shesterkin in net for the Rangers, but he has not been effective in his last two starts. Maybe that 83 save multiple overtime loss broke Shesterkin, but for now the Penguins appear to have his number. The Penguins are firing on all cylinders at the moment with over 40 shots in their last 2 games, and if you allow Crosby and Co. that many shots, bad things will happen. I have no faith in new cult hero Domingue’s abilities. The total is very average, and has gone over in every game in this series. Take the OVER again today.

When Dallas headed home to face Phoenix for Game 3, they had lost to the Suns 11 straight times and were facing an 0-2 series deficit. Now the series is all tied up after a couple of impressive wins at home. The Suns are the team that is reeling entering Game 5 tonight.

We’re back in Phoenix, but I see the Mavericks playing a lot better Tuesday night than they did in either Games 1 or 2. Though they did end up losing by 20, the Mavs were ahead at halftime in Game 2. And though they were down the whole way in Game 1, they only ended up losing by seven with a chance to “steal the cover” late (they did not). 

Remember something I’ve previously written. The Suns posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced out of the first round. That was against the 8th seeded Pelicans.

Dallas was +33 from behind the three-point line in Game 4. We probably shouldn’t count on that transpiring again. But they’ve made more threes than Phoenix in the series and in every game but one (both teams made 13 in Game 3). 

I happen to think the teams are a lot closer than these odds would seem to suggest. Dallas is definitely the better defensive team in this Western Conference semifinal. Grab those points.

The Heat went cold from three in the two games at Philadelphia, going 7 of 30 and 7 of 35 in the two games there. That’s 21.5 percent, well below their league-leading average during the regular season. But they also shot 25% from three in Game 1 of this series, which was at home. Maybe you’ve just got to credit the Philly defense.

This series has seen the Under and Over alternate, neither hitting back to back games. The Over hit in Game 4, so that means it’s time to go back to the Under. The 76ers shot much better in the two home games than they did in the first two in Miami. Some of that can be tied to the return of Joel Embiid. But I also don’t think you should expect the Sixers to shoot 54% overall and 48.5% from three again like they did in Game 4.

The Under remains 6-2 in all Miami playoff games. Philadelphia failed to score more than 103 in any of the first three games of this series and we should see good Heat defense tonight. Philly is 6-0 Under off their previous six games scoring 100 or more. If you can believe it, the Sixers haven’t scored 100 points in regulation back to back games since the first two games vs. Toronto.

Miami scored only 79 points when it lost Game 3. They bounced back a bit to score 108 in Game 4, but I don’t see them matching that number tonight. Jimmy Butler has had to carry too much of the scoring load. Play the Under here. 

Sweet home Carolina! After losing both games in Boston, the Hurricanes are back at home, where they have been dominant all season. They are too good a defensive team to continue to allow 5 goals against. Carolina was very convincing in the first two game, holding the Bruins to just four goals, but will have to stymie Boston’s big three today. The Bruins could be down two key defensemen today; McAvoy is certainly out and Lindholm is questionable. Look for a big game in the net from Raanta or even possibly Andersen. I am wagering that the Hurricanes figure out Swayman, and win at home.

Golden State blitzed Memphis in Game 3, winning 142-112, and now it seems unlikely that Ja Morant will suit up for the Grizzlies in Game 4. In other words, it seems like the road team is in a tough spot. Although, they have gone 20-5 straight up this season when Morant is out of the lineup.

The Warriors shooting as well as they did in Game 3 caught me by surprise. Not that I didn’t expect a slight uptick after their Game 2 performance, where they made only seven three-pointers. But shooting 63% overall and 53% from three is off the charts. It was one of the best postseason shooting performances in history. It won’t be matched tonight.

Memphis made 16 threes of their own in Game 3. With Morant highly questionable to play tonight, they won’t be matching that number either. Morant hit 13 threes in the first three games. Even if does somehow play, remember he wasn’t making many threes in the first round vs. Minnesota.

Golden State only allows 103.1 points per game at home. Defending a Grizzlies team that is in all likelihood going to be without its top scorer seems like a “walk in the park?” 

Morant had 47 of his team’s 106 points in Game 2. The Grizzlies will struggle to score without him. If the reports are wrong and Morant somehow does play, he won’t be 100 percent, and thus I wouldn’t expect a big game. Grab the Under.

The Av’s have been a force to be reckoned with in round one, and can close it out tonight. The Predators, still without Saros, got one good game out of Ingram, but it was back to status quo in Game three. The Avalanche are just too much to for Nashville to handle at the moment. Kuemper could be back in net but Francouz closed out Game 3 well, and is available if needed. The Avs are destined for greater things this season, and with their very fine offense rolling as it is, should win easily. Take Colorado  to win - 1 1/2..

We’ve yet to see an Over in this series or, in the case of Milwaukee, the entire postseason! The Bucks are 8-0 Under here in the playoffs, allowing an average of just 96.9 points per game. I believe we’ll see that Under streak come to an end tonight in Game 4 vs. Boston.

It was terrible all-around shooting in Game 3. The Celtics shot 36.8% while the Bucks weren’t much better at 40.4%. Both teams shot similarly from three with Boston only making 9 of 33 and Milwaukee making 9 of 34. Still, the game very nearly made it to the 212 point total (was a 103-101 final). 

You have to imagine we will see better shooting, from both teams, in this game. Therefore, there will be more than just a few added points and the Over seems likely. 

Boston made 38 three-pointers in the first two games, so a return to form there seems obvious. 

The four times these teams met in the regular season, every game had a minimum of 220 total points scored. I just think we’re destined for an Under. There haven’t been too many Milwaukee games this season where the O/U was lower than it is here.

This series feels a lot different now that Joel Embiid is back for Philadelphia. The 76ers rolled to a 99-79 win in Game 3 as the home team has yet to lose in this best of seven affair. While we can’t count on Miami shooting as poorly here as they did in Game 3, I still like the Sixers to win and cover Game 4. 

Still at +285 to win the series, the Sixers seem a bit undervalued to me. Embiid had only 18 points in Game 3, well under his season average, and eight of those came from the FT line. It was a bit of a surprise return Friday night. I’m expecting more from Embiid tonight.

James Harden also has yet to “go off” in this series, even with Embiid not playing either of the first two games. Harden has scored only 53 points in the series, on 15 of 39 shooting. He’s 4 of 19 from behind the arc. If we get anything approaching “typical” performances from Harden and Embiid here, then we should be in VERY good shape.

Also, the Sixers’ other three starters (Harris, Maxey, Green) have all shown an ability to contribute in meaningful fashion. 

For Miami, Jimmy Butler scored 33 points in Game 3, but only one other teammate (Tyler Herro) joined him in double figures and it took a rather inefficient effort. Kyle Lowry didn’t score (attempted only four shots) in his first game back from a hamstring injury and Bam Adebayo was a non-factor, going just 2 of 9 from the floor. I really like the Sixers here.

The Wild face the Blues in St Louis, looking to extend their lead.  Two key points will decide this game:

1.  The Wild are healthy, while the Blues have 4 defensemen listed as out or questionable.

2.  Goaltending.  Fleury has all the play-off experience in the world, while Husso after a strong start, has faltered int he last two games with save % of .875 and .825.

The Wild have broken through against the Blues, a team that has had their number for a while, both at home and on the road.  Minnesota is playing good play-off style hockey and will win tonight!

The Angel face the Nationals in LA today. The Angels are a good home team, strong vs. right handed pitching and hitting for a ton of power, if not average. Sandoval, the Angels starter, ran into a bit of trouble after giving up 0 runs in his first three starts. His strikeouts dropped and he allowed 3 runs.

The Nationals are 7-8 on the road, and 4-6 vs left-handers. They are hitting well for average, and their offense has stepped it up lately. Fedde, (4.68 ERA), the starter for the Nationals, appeared to finally find his form giving up just 1 run over 7 innings. The Angels have a decided edge in relief, with a sharp 2.15 ERA last five games. The Nat’s pen has struggled, but has shown better lately.

This game really hinges on which starter has his stuff. I am wagering on Fedde continuing to improve, with Sandoval not quite as good as he was to begin the season. n I think the Nationals will keep it close.  Take the Nationals on the run line +1 1/2

The 5-0 White Sox may have some obstacles to overcome for 6 straight. The primary problem is starter Dallas Keuchal, off to a miserable start, with just one okay outing and a WHIP of 2.33. He faces Boston’s starter Wacha, another veteran, but on a very different path this year. Throwing like it was 2013 again, he has pitched into the 6th with very limited hits and home runs. The White Sox’ bullpen has been decent lately, but likely face a long day on Sunday.

It is hard to describe the Red Sox as light-hitting, but that has been the case this year. However they will have their chances vs. Keuchal on Sunday. Similar to their offense, the Red Sox’ bullpen has struggled for the season, and seen its ERA balloon lately. The Red Sox are really due a breakout and what better time than at home against a starter with an ERA above 8.0. Take the Red Sox to win.

I can imagine that Calgary coach had some choice words for his team after the home loss. Kudos to the Stars to do what was needed to slow the pace and gain a much needed victory. It hasn't been the most exciting hockey, but a win is a win.  Dallas has been very impressive at home, and looks to have a hot goal-tender. Offense is the issue for them. I expect the hard-driving Flames will find a way to win tonight but like the odds on the total much better.  Look for Markstrom and Oettinger to keep the puck out of the net again and take the UNDER!

The Grizzlies and Warriors are squared away at one game each. The two games have been decided by a total of six points and Memphis has covered the spread both times. They were slight underdogs at home and only lost Game 1 by a single point.

As they hit the road for the first time in the series, Memphis will do so without Dillon Brooks, who is suspended for Game 3 due to injuring Gary Payton II. Though Brooks had contributed only eight points in the second round, he is considered a major loss here. In the first round series with Minnesota, Brooks had three games of 23 or more points.

Payton had been a surprise starter in the first two games for Golden State, after coming off the bench in the first round. The Warriors are now going to be forced to rely more on Andrew Wiggins - at both ends of the floor.

Andre Iguodala is also out for the Warriors. But perhaps the greater concern is that the team shot 7 of 38 on three-pointers in Game 2. They’ll shoot a higher percentage tonight, but I don’t think it will be enough to send this game Over the total.

Game 1 did go Over, but that total opened 10 points lower than the closing O/U line for Game 2, which went Under. The Under is 4-0 the last four times Golden State has been off a loss. The Under is 6-2 in Memphis’ last eight road games.

The Dodgers beat up on the Giants in their last two games and now face the Cubs in a double header on Saturday. Anderson starts today. He has pitched well, if not for length (4 to 5 innings per start), but has the support of a very good bullpen behind him.

The Cubs, who have not been effective lately, will start Daniel Norris today. Norris hasn’t started a game in years, and is pitching with an elevated ERA this season. I’m not sure if he is going as a Rays-style opener today, or if more innings are expected of him. The Cubs’ bullpen has not been great lately (4.50+ ERA L5) nor have they been getting length from their starters, so chances are there will be slim pickings in the pen for the 2nd game of the double-header.

The Cubs were up at the top in offense, but have slipped considerably in recent games The Dodgers now have the edge over them in offense.  Take the Dodgers, in a little doubt situation, to win.

Boston has been struggling badly, with some lopsided losses at home. Meanwhile the other Sox, the White ones, appear to have turned things around after some problems of their own. Bullpens have been a key stat. In the last 5 games, Chicago’s relievers have an ERA of 1.53 vs. a whopping 11.0 for Boston!

Pivetta is an unlikely hero for Boston today. At 0-4 and an ERA of 7.84, his past starts have been short and ugly. Opposing batters have been teeing off on him, and walks have been an issue.

Not so for the White Sox’ Dylan Cease (3-1, 2.48 ERA). With 39 strikeouts and just one rough start, he has limited hits and the long ball.

The White Sox’ bats have struggled, but have picked up recently. The Red Sox have worse offensive stats, which is unexpected considering their line-up.

I am on the side of the White today. Take Chicago to win today’s game.

After losing Game 1 on their home floor, 101-89, the Celtics bounced back to win Game 2 109-86 and are now back to being favored to win this best of seven series, which now moves to Milwaukee. Despite the change in home court advantage, I like Boston to still walk away with the ATS win in Game 3. 

The Celtics are 10-1 ATS vs. the Bucks the last three seasons. With Khris Middleton still out for Milwaukee, it feels like laying points would be a bad idea here. Sure, the Bucks will shoot better than they did in the last game, but will improved shooting be enough?

Overall shooting was pretty even in Game 2, but it was from three where the Celtics had a huge edge. They were 20 of 43 while Milwaukee was 3 of 18. Boston was up 25 points at halftime. 

Boston had the best regular season point differential in the Eastern Conference and is considered the favorite to make the NBA Finals. So it makes sense to bet them here. I’m just not sure Milwaukee can maintain its current defensive rating in the playoffs.

Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart is expected back for Game 3. His Celtics are now 33-8 SU their last 41 games. They’ve covered five in a row as underdogs and are the better team. 

Both home teams on Friday are down 0-2 in their respective series. You would have to go all the way back to 2019 to find the last time the Mavericks beat the Suns head to head. The losing streak is now 11 games. I think tonight is the night they snap it. 

This projection may seem a bit “brave,” but Dallas is 32-12 straight up at home this year. Looking at the home vs. road splits for both them and the Suns, one thing really stands out. The Mavs are only allowing 101.5 points per game at home, well down from the 108.0 points per game they give up on the road.

So you should expect Phoenix to score a lot fewer points here than they did in either Games 1 (121) and 2 (129). The Suns made 64.5% of their shots in Game 2 and were 13 of 25 from three. That’s just not sustainable, especially when now going out on the road and facing what has been one of the better defensive teams in the league.

Dallas is 5-0 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a game where they allowed 125 or more points. So recent history points to them putting the clamps down and bouncing back here. 

I think the other key is that Dallas needs someone to step up besides Luka Doncic. At home, that should happen. In each of the first two games, Doncic has scored more than the other four starters combined. Look for a more balanced effort from the Mavs tonight as they get back into the win column.

The Rays took the first game against the Mariners in Seattle last night, but face one of the league's hottest starters in Logan Gilbert tonight. Gilbert was pitcher of the month in April and has given up just 2 ER in five starts.

It looks like the Rays will go with an opener today in Matt Wisler. Nominally a reliever, he has opened two games lately, including one against the Mariners, with some success and will have support of the Rays’ traditionally solid bullpen. With an ERA of 2.80, the pen has been performing well, but used heavily lately. The Mariners’ pen has not been quite as strong, but still has an ERA of 3.20.

The Rays have been very good on the road this season, but do not usually flourish in Seattle historically. They are 11-9 vs right-handed pitching to date. The Mariners are 7-2 at home this year, and 6-1 as a favorite. The Rays have a slight edge on offense, but the Mariners have good power figures too.

The Rays used the same opener tactic when they played against The Mariners and Gilbert in April, and it was not successful, resulting an 8-4 loss. It concerns me that they are so reliant on their pen so early in the season. Gilbert show no sign of cooling off, and the Mariners have the offense and relief to support him. I favor the Mariners tonight. Take Seattle to win.

Joel Embiid has been downgraded to OUT for Game 3 and that’s not the news Philadelphia wanted to hear as the Sixers are already down 2-0 in this series with Miami. But the Heat have a number of “banged up” players themselves and considering the sense of desperation for the Sixers (who are now back home), I like them to cover in this spot.

The market reacted swiftly to the Embiid news with Miami now favored by a few points on the road. But don’t forget, up two games to none in the first round, they lost Game 3 at Atlanta. Even without Embiid, the 76ers are a stronger team than the Hawks. They have James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris.

Maxey and Harris each turned in a breakout game in Miami. But Harden was disappointing in the two games, scoring only 36 points and shooting 11 of 28 from the field. I expect him to play a lot better tonight.

As a team, look for Philly to shoot much better from three-point land than they did in either of the first two games. They are 14 of 64 from behind the arc in the series. That’s well below their season average of 36.4% for the year.

This will be the 76ers first time playing at home in 12 days and only their second game here since April 18th. I expect the place will be “rocking.” Take the home underdog.

The Bruins head home, down 2-0, and will be missing Lindholm on defense. They will switch goaltenders, hoping for a spark from Swayman. The Hurricanes have limited the Bruins to just 3 goals, which is not surprising as they are the top defensive team in the NHL. The Canes’ goaltender is a question mark at the moment, but both options played well in game 2. What is surprising is the Canes’ offense, scoring 10 goals on a usually stingy Bruins team. Can the Bruins find success on home ice? I don’t think so. Carolina was strong on the road all season, and have basically steamrolled the Bruins to date. Swayman has no experience in the playoffs. The big three Bruins forwards have not shone yet in this series.  Carolina is an underdog, but I think they are still too much for an aging Bruins team to handle.  Take Carolina to win.

Miami was swept by the D-backs, and are up against a tougher opponent in the Padres. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.10) starts for the Marlins. Other than one poor start, he has been very strong, giving up just I HR and striking out 28. His mound opponent, Nick Martinez(4.12 ERA) hasn’t been quite as effective, with relatively short starts and some control issues.

The Marlins have the edge in relief pitching for the season; it was the starters who let them down vs the Diamondbacks. The Padres’ bullpen has a collective ERA over 4, and has bulged to 4.80 in their last 5 games.

Surprisingly, the Marlins also have an edge in offense at the moment, and hit better against right-handers. The Padres are hitting poorly for average and middle of the pack for power, but for the season have hit left-handers better.

It is tough to pick a favorite in this game, so I am looking to the total today. Martinez’s control issues are a concern as is the Padres’ bullpen. The total is low for this match-up, too low for my liking. Take the Marlins and Padres to go over.

The Preds are in a pickle early.  They were rolled over by the Avalanche, and are without starting goalie Saros.  They will need to play tighter and tougher today, The Av's are clipping along a top speed and are a tough opponent anywhere, but are nearly unbeatable at home.  Nashville will need to find some  quality goaltending and Rittich was not the answer in Game one.  It likely won't be as easy, but I expect another fine performance from the Av's today.  Colorado - 1 1/2.

It is a long time since Aaron Sanchez pitched successfully. He finished last season poorly and has just 2 very average starts this year. He likely won’t last long and may not prosper in Coors Field.

Rockies starter Senzatela, has pitched well in the rarefied airs of Colorado. In 4 starts to date, he had just one “rocky” one and that was in Detroit. He was very good vs the Reds last start.

Both teams are top 5 in batting and have hit the ball particularly hard lately. The Nationals have scored 38 runs in their last 4 games and the Rockies have had a pair of 10 run efforts in their last five.

Neither of these bullpens can hold a lead. The Rockies are last in bullpen stats and the Nationals aren’t far behind. The total is high, but I am all over the OVER on Thursday

The Mavs have now lost nine straight times to the Suns following a rather dismal performance in Game 1 where they lost 121-114 as 5.5-point underdogs. While the ATS result came down the wire, that final score really isn’t indicative of how the game actually went. Dallas was down double digits most of the way.

Luka Doncic did his part for the Mavericks in Game 1, turning in a 45-12-8 game. But the rest of the starters combined for just 39 points. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie finished well below their respective scoring averages in Game 1. I’m expecting both to play better tonight.

For Phoenix, Devin Booker still seems hobbled by a hamstring injury. He’s shot just 12 of 32 in the two games since returning. 

Defensively, the Mavs have been one of the top teams in the NBA this year. They allow only 104.5 points per game and kept Utah, one of the league’s most efficient offenses, to only 99 points per game.

Doncic has only played two of the four games against Phoenix this year. I think the Mavs’ three-point shooting keeps them in this game and I would not rule out an upset here. Grab those points.

These teams combined to shoot 21 percent from three in Game 1. They were 15 of 70. Miami, the top three-point shooting team in the league, was 9 of 36, well below their season average of 37.6 percent. Philadelphia was even worse, making only 6 of 34 (17.6%). You have to figure we’re getting better three-point shooting in Game 2.

James Harden, who is expected to carry the scoring load with Joel Embiid still out, finished with only 16 points in Game 1. But it wasn’t just him that undeperformed. The 76ers’ bench chipped in only 21 points total and 10 of them came from Furkan Korkmaz. The reserves were a combined 1 of 12 on three point tries. 

Across the board, the Sixers should be more efficient on offense tonight. That means even if Tobias Harris can’t match his 27 point Game 1 effort, we’re in good shape on this side with the Over.

Miami will obviously be better from three-point range as well and Jimmy Butler should bounce back from a 15-point Game 1 where he was just 5 of 16 shooting. 

Philadelphia is 13-7 Over after scoring less than 100 points or less. They are also 6-1 to the Over following an ATS loss. Until the Sixers fell apart offensively in the last quarter and a half, Game 1 seemed like it might be headed Over. Game 2 promises to be higher scoring and WILL go Over. 

BRUINS/'CANES: NHL BEST BET!

The Braves are not off to a great start. Their offense has not been dominant at all, noticeable for just home runs and strikeouts. They have struggled on the road, and against right-handed pitching to date.

They face a very good right-hander in the Mets’ MeGill (5 starts, 1.93 ERA). He gave up 4 runs in 6 innings in his worst start, but has otherwise been excellent. He is holding opposing batters to a .186 BA, with just 6 walks.

Anderson starts for the Braves. He struggled early in the season but has bounced back nicely since. Control has sometimes been an issue, with 11 walks to 17 strikouts.

Both pens have performed adequately, so no advantage goes to either team. Where the Mets are showing better is on offense. They are top of the pack in average with very good power. They have also been solid at home and vs. right-handers. The Mets are a small favorite, and my pick to win on Wednesday.

Boston should bounce back in Game 2. They shot 10 of 34 (just 29.4 percent!) from inside the arc in Game 1. That was their lowest shooting percentage on two-point attempts all season. There have been only seven times all year that the Celtics shot below 45 percent from two-point range. 

Following those poor shooting nights, the team has consistently been able to rediscover its shooting touch, making an average of 55 percent from inside the arc the next game. 

I think it’s a given that Boston improves offensively for Game 2. Defensively, they were #1 in points allowed during the regular season. They held Milwaukee to 101 points on 41.1% shooting in Game 1 and I think they are capable of doing the same again tonight.

Just to reiterate what I’ve said so far, the Celtics are 10-5 against the spread this season after being held under 100 points. They are 11-5 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite.

Remember that Milwaukee is missing its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. His production is more difficult to replace on the road. Not sure the Bucks can count on another 25-point performance from Jrue Holiday tonight. They are 1-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less the previous game. Lay the points in Game 2.

The Rangers have ruled the roost against the Penguins this season, and while Pittsburgh has all the play-off experience in the world, they don’t have Shesterkin, and they don’t have starting goalie Jarry either. DeSmith could be fine, but is untested in play-off action. New York is very good on home ice, and is much better on the PP. I am on Shesterkin (Mr. Big) and the Rangers today.

Phoenix, who has the league’s best record, is a big favorite to win this series with Dallas. But it was by no means a dominant first round effort by the Suns. They needed six games to eliminate the 8-seed New Orleans and posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced.

Some of the subpar performance could be pinned on leading scorer Devin Booker missing most of the series. Booker played in only three games and only once did he log more than 32 minutes. The Suns did win both games Booker finished. 

But what about Dallas eliminating Utah, despite not having Luka Doncic the first three games? That was more impressive than the Suns without Booker. The Mavericks have covered five in a row and the only game they lost was decided by one point.

The Mavs last win over the Suns came in November of 2019. They’ve lost nine in a row to Phoenix since. But recall Milwaukee’s history vs. Boston was not good. Until yesterday when I backed the Bucks. Two of the three games Dallas lost to Phoenix this season, Doncic was out. 

These teams are more even than you’re being led to believe. Not only does Dallas have Doncic, they have Jalen Brunson, who averaged 27.8 points per game in the first round. Defensively, the Mavs are one of the top teams. They held Utah to 99 points per game. For the year, they are holding opponents to 104.3 points per game.

Much as I am a fan of the Wild, meeting the Blues in the first round is not a good fit for them. The Wild have beaten everyone and anyone lately, and limited good teams to low goals-against, but bring in the Blues and defense goes out the window. The Wild have lost the last 5 meetings, dating back to last year.

These are two very good offensive teams, 3rd and 5th in the league, and when they play, a high total has been almost a given. Husso will likely start for the Blues, and a little of the shine has rubbed off him as the season ground down. The Wild have two fine options in net. Goaltenders aside, I suspect that both teams will do what they do best, which is score goals. Don’t overlook overtime figuring prominently in this series.

I’ll delay picking winners until I have seen at least one game, but I do like the total on Monday. Shop around, then take the over.

This series took a dramatic turn before even getting underway with the announcement that the 76ers’ Joel Embiid would be out indefinitely. It has since been reported that he could return for Games 3 or 4. But we know Embiid will miss Monday’s opener in Miami. 

Luckily for Philadelphia, they still have James Harden, not to mention Tyrese Maxey, who poured in 38 points the last time the Sixers were in a series opener. In both the first and last game of the Toronto series, the team topped 130 points. They are 4-2 Over the next game, the previous six times they scored 130+ in a game. They are also 8-2 Over when playing with three or more days rest.

The loss of Embiid is significant, but I still believe the Sixers will score. Also, this is a low total for Game 1. Lower than the closing number for any game in the Philly-Toronto series or the Miami-Atlanta series.

Jimmy Butler will be back for the Heat while Tyler Herro will also play. Kyle Lowry remains out. Miami had scored 110 or more in the first four games of the Atlanta series, before winning 97-94 in Game 5 to close things out.

I look at this Game 1 and think both teams can score 105 points rather easily. That is all we need. When the Sixers beat the Heat 113-106 on March 21st, not only did they not have Embiid, but Harden was also out. Go with the OVER.

Angels' Lefty starter Sandoval has made a huge  jump from last year.  In three starts, he is yet to give up a run.  He pitched 7 innings of shutout ball in his last start, striking out 9. I wonder if this success is sustainable, but if anything, he has improved each time out, increasing his strikeouts and limiting walks. 

Dylan Cease starts for the Sox.  Cease has not pitched poorly, especially in his first two starts, but he has slipped since then, giving up 6 runs total in his last 2 starts.  Walks have been an issue.

The Angels' pen is actually outperforming the White Sox' at the moment, and there is no contest in offense.  The 15-8 Angels are hitting for average and power with the 2nd best OPA in the league.  The slumping White Sox are well down the list, with the 4th worst OPS.  The Angels have been very successful on the road.  The White Sox are considered a modest favorite.  I have my doubts, and so should you. I am willing to back Sandoval over Cease. Take the Angels to win.

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY. DISREGARD.

Needing all those late game heroics to overcome Minnesota in the first round, Memphis almost seems like it’s being “written off” for Game 1 against Golden State. But the Grizzlies are at home Sunday where they are 8-2 straight up and against the spread as underdogs this season. I say grab the points in Game 1 as the Warriors look like a VERY “public” side. 

Memphis won three of the four regular season games against Golden State and handed the Warriors their worst loss of the season. That comes with an asterisk though as the Warriors’ 28-point loss here in Memphis came without the services of Curry, Thompson and Green. 

But that doesn’t mean the Grizzlies won’t win again here. Golden State is only 23-20 on the road where it gives up about six more points per game than they do at home. Also the Warriors might be rusty. They haven’t played since Wednesday.

Five Grizzlies averaged double figures in round one and it was not Ja Morant leading the way. It was Desmond Bane, who averaged 23.5 points and made 27 threes. Morant wasn’t far behind with a 21.5 PPG average vs. Minnesota.

Memphis is 32-12 at home, winning by almost nine points per game. They are a great value play in Game 1. Grab those points.

The Pirates knocked off the Padres on Saturday, winning in extra innings, but I don’t favor their chances for two in a row. Musgrove starts for the Padres, and he has been a paragon of consistency this season, giving up just 6 ER in 25 innings with 2 walks and a strikeout an inning on average.

He faces Mitch Keller (6.62 ERA) who has had just 1 quality start in 4 attempts. Opposing batters are hitting close to .300, and he has 7 walks to date. The Pirates’ bullpen has not been much support to date, with a collective ERA of well over 4.00. San Diego’s relievers are just middle of the pack but are still considerably better than the Pirates on average, if not yesterday.

The teams are roughly equal in batting avg. but the Padres are hitting for significantly more power, and have been very good (8-4) against right-handers. San Diego has been dominant on the road, especially as a road favorite (6-1!).

The Padres are a large favorite on Sunday. Take them on the Run line. San Diego – 1 1/2

The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs.

The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. 

Shockingly, the Bucks are 0-9 ATS the last nine games vs. the Celtics. But today’s game marks just the second time that the Celtics will have been favored to beat the Bucks.

Khris Middleton is a big loss for the Bucks (he’s their second leading scorer), but consider the way Milwaukee played defense in the first round. They posted the best defensive efficiency rating of any team. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo can still carry this team to victory. For Boston, Jaylen Brown is dealing with an injured hamstring. This is a far more even matchup than what the series odds say. Grab the points in Game 1. 

The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs.

The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. 

The Over/Under was a 2-2 split in those four regular season games, but it’s interesting that they averaged 233.3 total points scored. Expect the games in this series to be a lot lower scoring. The Bucks were 5-0 Under in the first round while posting the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the playoffs.

Remember that Milwaukee is without its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. Wesley Matthews has been starting in his  place, but it was Grayson Allen stepping up to average 20+ points in the three games without Middleton. Allen made 11 threes in those three games. I don’t see that happening against a Boston team that defended Kevin Durant so well.

On the other side, Jaylen Brown is dealing with a hamstring injury for the Celtics. I look for a low-scoring Game 1. Grab the UNDER.

The Cubs look great on paper (2nd best offense, great bullpen ERA), but at 3-7L10, they aren't winning many games.  Meanwhile the Brewers can't hit, but are still 13-7 for the season.  Starting pitching might have something to do with it.  Saturday's starter Lauer had a poor opening game, but in his last two has been absolutley lights out, allowing just 1 ER over 12 innings.  He had 13 strikeouts in his last start. He is up against the Cubs' Justin Steele (5.40 ERA).  Five starts in , he has been going in the wrong direction.  His length has decreased and runs-against have shot up.  In his last start, he lasted just 3 innings giving up 3 runs, with 4 walks.  And while the Cubs have a low reliever ERA, the Brewers already have 11 saves from their bullpen

That lofty Cubs offense is skewed. When you score 21 runs in a single game this early in the season, it does wonders for your stats..  The Cubs are not scoring runs against good pitchers, and Lauer is a very good starter.  Take the Brewers to win..

It is rookie vs. ace in the Nationals/Giants pitching match-up on Saturday. The Nats’ starter Joan Adon (6.98 ERA) has just one good start in four attempts. He has already lost to the Giants in a five run 4 inning outing. I don’t like his chances against Logan Webb and the Giants, even though Webb has not been at his very bet in his last two efforts. He is still sporting a 2.96 ERA. In all likelihood, Webb will bounce back, but with the best bullpen in the league, the Giants can pull a starter at any time comfortably.

The Nationals’ pen is not up to the same standard, nor is the Giants' offense. The Nationals are just 6-15 to date and a rough 3-11 against right-handed pitching. You don’t often meet a better righty than Webb. The Giants are solid at home, very good vs right-handers and a considerable favorite on Saturday. Take the Giants on the run line: they are good for the extra runs. SF – 1 ½.

This was expected to be the highest scoring series of the first round with totals in the 230’s. But three of the first five games have stayed Under and oddsmakers have adjusted a bit, posting a total for Game 6 that is 10 points lower than Game 1. 

Personally, I’ve made just two wagers in this series. I won both. It was Minnesota (+6.5) winning Game 1 outright for me, then I had the Under in Game 3. 

The Timberwolves should probably be the team with the opportunity to close things out tonight. Honestly, you could make the argument that they could have already won the series. Twice they blew double digit leads in the fourth quarter and lost. The second time was Game 5, which ended up being a two-point loss. 

Minnesota is better defensively at home, but we are still talking about the two highest scoring teams from the regular season and of the eight first round playoff series, this one is - by far - averaging the highest number of possessions per game. 

Expect Memphis to shoot much better from three-point range than they did in Game 5 where they were only 25 percent. They’ve scored 111 or more in all but one of the five games. Minnesota is 18-8 to the Over following a straight up loss. 

The Yankees, winners of 6 straight are on fire.  Their bats have finally woken up, and that bullpen is still lights out.  Nestor Cortez starts on Friday.  He is arguably the Yank's best pitcher at the moment, with electric stuff (2 ER in 15 innings, 25 strikouts).

KC will do well not to be overwhelmed, even at home.  Bubic starts, and only one of his first three appearances has been passible.  He has given up more than a run an inning and has been wild as well, with more walks than strikeouts.  The Royals have neither the firepower nor the relievers to a. outscore the Yankees or b. rescue Bubic.  Take the Yankees on the run line at -1 1/2.

The Twins Dylan Bundy has, quite unexpectedly, pitched as well as anyone in the MLB to date. He is 3-0, with just 1 earned run allowed, 12 strikeouts and 1 walk. One wonders if these stats are sustainable, but they are very impressive for the moment. His opponent, the Rays’ Cory Kluber is a great veteran pitcher who has missed a ton of time to injuries in the last few years. His starts are going in the wrong direction this season. He gave up 4 runs and 11 hits over 5 innings last time out. The Rays, as always seem to have a terrific bullpen that they are not afraid to use. The Twins pen cannot match the Rays’ but may not have to go quite as long.

The Twins are on a tear, winning 6 in a row, and their offense has taken an expected jump lately. The Twins have also been tough on right-handed pitching this season. The Rays are experiencing a bit of a power outage at the moment, with just 20 runs scored over the last 6 games. I have in the past avoided going against the Rays, but I am not sure this year’s team is a match for recent vintages. Take the Twins, the underdog, to win.

The White Sox have been on a long and ugly losing streak, but have their ace on the mound today. Giolito returned from a brief stint on the injury list, and looked fine, lasting just 4 innings, allowing 1 run with 9 strikeouts. He will likely still be on a short leash today. The bullpen was not able able to preserve that start, and has not been very effective, but the real issue for the White Sox has been run support, and it hasn’t improved since the Sox returned home. Chicago managed just 9 runs in 3 games against a poor KC pitching staff in their last series.

The Sox face the Angels’ right-hander Noah Syndergaard today. He has pitched to a 2.12 ERA, and lasted into the 6th in every start. The Angels’ starters have not had good support from their relievers in general, but do get plenty of run support. They are top of the heap in OPS and have hit a ton of home runs to date.

The Angels have won five straight, have been good on the road ,and tough on right-handed pitching. Syndergaard will likely give them more length than Giolito, and they have the ability to easily outscore the Sox. Take the Angels, a small underdog, to steal this one.

Utah should have Deron Williams for Game 6, but regardless I don’t expect them to play all that well. They’ve been a bit exposed in this series by the Mavericks, who didn’t even have Luka Doncic for the first three games.

Do I expect the Jazz to shoot better than 10 percent on three-pointers? That was where they finished in Game 5. Obviously, they’ll shoot better in tonight’s game. But they are averaging less than 100 points in the series. Only one game have they scored more than 104.

Dallas hasn’t exactly torn it up offensively either. The last two games have seen them score 102 and 99. 

The Mavs played at the slowest tempo in the regular season and of the eight first round series, this one has averaged the third fewest number of possessions. 

Utah has been able to hit better than 32% from three in just one of the five games so far. Mitchell is hurting and no one else seems able to step it up. Another low-scoring game should be in the cards

The Suns were expected to roll in this series, but now are hoping just to avoid a Game 7. Leading scorer Devin Booker hasn’t played since Game 2. Phoenix has won two of the three games without him and a Game 6 return by Booker is now considered a possibility. But I like the Pelicans at home in this one. 

The old trusty zig-zag theory has played out according to script in this series. Neither team has been able to cover two in a row. If that pattern holds, then New Orleans will likely force a Game 7 (they are short underdogs). 

The last game in New Orleans was won by the Pelicans 118-103. The Pels were then betrayed by three-point shooting in Game 5, making only 5 of 25 attempts. They’ll be far better than that in tonight’s game. CJ McCollum was 1 for 8 from distance in Game 5 and 3 for 17 the last two games. I expect him to start making shots at a higher percentage here.

The Suns have yet to score more than 114 points in any game during the series. New Orleans is averaging 111.5 at home for the season. If they hit their average, we’re in good shape tonight.

Don’t think Mikal Bridges will score 31 again like he did in Game 5. (That was a career playoff high). Booker or no Booker, I don’t like the Suns’ chances here. Take the points.

When Philadelphia was up 3-0 in this series, it was considered a formality that they’d move on to the second round. After all, no team in NBA history has ever come back from an 0-3 series deficit. But all of a sudden Toronto has won two in a row, to seize momentum, and Joel Embiid is hurt for the Sixers.

Embiid, despite playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb, still led the team with 20 points and 11 rebounds. James Harden finishing just 4 of 11 from the field was a problem and Embiid called him out afterwards. Also, Tyrese Maxey (who was the Game 1 hero with 38 points) has seen his scoring decline throughout the series. He’s scored just 23 points combined in the past two games.

The Sixers scored only 88 points in Game 5 on 38.3 percent shooting. Expect a far better effort at the offensive end this evening. The team is 6-2 to the Over following its last eight straight up defeats.

Toronto and Philly combined to shoot 18 of 68 on three-pointers in the last game. That’s just over 26 percent. For the year, they combined to shoot better than 35 percent. Again, we’ll pick up points in that regard tonight.

I know this has been a low scoring series - the last four games have all gone Under - but this number looks too low given what the two sides are capable of doing. Both teams’ games average right around 216 points over the course of the season. Take the OVER.

The Guardians face the home favorite Angels today. Cal Quantrill starts for Cleveland, and was a go-to starter for me last year. He hasn’t pitched poorly this year, but hasn’t quite found the same form as in 2021. I still have hopes for him. He has been delivering solid length. He faces young and promising Angels lefty Reid Detmers, who is sporting a poor 6.57 ERA to date. He has yet to show what is expected of him.

The Guardians have the better bullpen at the moment, and while they haven’t the same home run numbers as the Angels, they are hitting for average and power.

Take the Guardians to steal or come close today. Cleveland +1 ½.

Down two games in the series, the Tigers send out lefty Tariq Skubal, up against the Twins’ Bailey Ober. The two young pitchers have similar records to date; both with a poor first start, followed by a pair of fine appearances. Skubal has two shut-out starts; Ober has just given up 1 run in his last two appearances. Once the starters are out, there is quite a difference in relief pitching. Detroit’s pen has been surprisingly good, sporting a very skimpy 2.22 ERA. The Twins’ bullpen ERA in fully two runs worse.

Looking at the offenses, the Twins are hitting for more power, while the Tigers have the advantage in batting average. The Tigers’ home run numbers are very low. The Twins have won 7 straight, including the pair against Detroit. They have been good at home but also have struggled against left-handed pitching. I like Skubal’s and the Tigers’ chances on Thursday, if not to win then at least to keep it close. Take the Tigers + 1 ½.

Golden State missed out on its chance to sweep Denver, losing Sunday by a score of 126-121. But the good news is that no team in NBA history has ever blown a 3-0 series lead (Warriors infamously blew a 3-1 series lead in the 2016 NBA Finals) and now they are back home for Game 5 and heavily favored to close out the series.

The first four games have all gone Over. The Warriors and Nuggets have combined to average 245.4 points with every game seeing 230 or more points scored. Game 4 was the highest scoring one so far.

The total for Game 5 has been set a little higher than the previous games. What I don’t think will happen Wednesday is Denver shooting 56.5 percent again like they did at home in Game 4. The last two games have seen both teams shoot better than 50 percent. I don’t see that happening again either.

Golden State is an elite defensive team at home where they give up an average of just 103.3 points per game. The Under is still 25-17 in Warriors’ home games this season. Denver averaged only 106.5 points in the first two games here.

So, with their season still on the line, it’s up to Denver defensively. They’ve yet to hold Golden State to less than 118 points, but if they can keep them closer to 111 (what the Nuggets are allowing per game, for the year), then we’ve got a great shot at this one going Under.

The Nationals are 6-12 to start, poor at home, dead last in team pitching, and struggling on offense with the 24th ranked OPS. Their starter Eric Fedde was a bright spot with a pair of 5 inning 2 run outings but things fell apart in his 3rd start. He gave up 6 runs in 3+ innings.

The Nationals are up against Marlins’ hot hand Pablo Lopez. His first two starts were very good, but his third one was an absolute gem (7 innings, 0 runs). Lopez may not need much support, but the Marlins’ bullpen has been very good to date. The Marlins are 3-1 in their last 4 games, and hitting well for average if not for power.

Fedde will have to go some way to match Lopez, and the Nationals haven’t had the stuff to win or hold in the late innings. Take the Marlins to steal this one.

The Mets are in St Louis to face the Cardinals. Up 2-0 in the series, they look to bring out the broom on Wednesday. With Carlos Carrasco starting, it is a distinct possibility. He has been a beast so far with 3 strong starts, the last one going 7+ innings with 2 runs allowed. Carrasco has 20 strikeouts to just 2 walks.

Cards pitcher Matz, an ex-Met, will start against his former team. With an ERA over 5, he is still trying to live down that ugly first start, but #2 and 3 were much better. His ex team-mates haven’t done him any favors, and have had good success against him in the past. Both these teams have good support from their relievers this season. St Louis might have the better pen at the moment , but the Mets overall have limited teams to just a .191 batting average.

New York is very good on the road this season, and hitting so much better than last year. They are 4th in team batting average and 1st in runs scored. The Cardinals are just mid-pack in OPS. New York is a slight favorite and rightly so. I favor Carrasco slightly over Matz and think the Mets’ offence will win the day. Take the Mets to win outright.

The Dodgers have great starting pitching to start the season, but none looks much better than Tuesday’s starter Gonsolin. He has given up just 1 run in three starts, pitching to increasing length each outing. He finished 6 innings in his last start.

Diamondbacks starter Davies has had mixed results so far, sandwiching two good efforts around a poor 4 inning, 4 run result. The problems for the Diamondbacks will likely begin when the starter comes out. Their bullpen is third worst in the league with a BP ERA more than 2 runs worse than the Dodgers’. The Diamondbacks are no match for the Dodgers on offense either, with a team batting average of just .189 to date. The Dodgers are strong in average and power, and are also holding the opposing teams to a slim .191 batting average.

LA is a solid favorite, but should be good for the extra runs. Take the Dodgers at -1 ½..

The O’s face the Yankees in the confines of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. The Orioles took their home series from the Yankees on the backs of their pitchers. Today’s starter Jordan Lyles held NY to just 1 run over 5 innings in his second start. He was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but his last two have been excellent. The O’s are also getting very good results from their bullpen, with a collective ERA of just 2.75. Of note, the Orioles have 3 shutouts to date.

Severino starts for NY. After 2 lost seasons due to injury, Severino appears healthy and the stats reflect this. In his 2nd and 3rd start, he lasted 10 innings total, allowing just a single run. The Yankees’ bullpen has been most impressive, with a very sharp ERA of 2.44, good for 4th in the league.

While the Yankees are not hitting for average (.235 ERA), their power figures are acceptable, although more is expected from Yankees’ bats. They have been a solid 7-3 at home this year. The Orioles are poor on the road so far (3-7) and also poor vs right-handed pitching (3-6). Their offense, as expected, is struggling in a big way, hitting just .211, with a severe power outage, just 44 runs, and 6 home runs to date.

These are two fine starters, supported by strong relievers. The Orioles’ offense is out and out poor, and the Yankees’ bats have yet to fully come around. The total is on the high side. I am a big fan of the under today

After completely destroying the Hawks in Game 4, 110-86, the Heat have a chance to close out this series at home. All three of Miami’s wins in this series have been by double digits while Atlanta’s lone triumph was by a single point after a Trae Young game winner. The Heat probably should have swept this series. Look for them to close things out tonight.

Atlanta just isn’t any good defensively. They are allowing 112.5 points per game in the series, which I guess is not all that surprising as they allowed 112.4 in the regular season and came into the playoffs with the worst defensive efficiency rating of all remaining teams. 

It hasn’t helped that Young has struggled mightily. He’s averaging just 16.5 points per game while shooting 32.1 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from three. He was held to just nine points on 3 of 11 shooting in Game 4 and he attempted just one free throw as 10 of his 11 shots were launched from behind the arc.

Young and the Hawks have now been held under 100 points in two of the four games. Miami clearly knows what it’s doing defensively and Atlanta has no game plan to solve it.

The Hawks are 0-42 ATS in their straight up losses this season, including 0-23 as underdogs! They are 6-20 ATS as road underdogs. Series over.

Even with an abundance of free throw attempts, Game 4 still saw only 199 total points scored. Part of the problem was that the Jazz missed 16 of their 42 attempts from the charity stripe. Playing on the road in Game 5, Utah won’t be getting to the FT line with such regularity tonight. But I do expect them to start sinking more threes. 

Games 2 and 3 of this series did make it Over the total with Game 3 being the highest-scoring, finishing with 244 total points. Luka Doncic finally suited up for Dallas in Game 4 and while he scored 30, only one other Mavs player had more than 11 and the team ended up with just 99.

Both teams should increase their scoring tonight. It’s been especially strange to see Utah fail to hit its season average of 113.2 points in three of the four games. They are attempting a lot less three-point tries, but I imagine we’ll see a change there for Game 5.

Utah shot only 30 percent from three in the two games at home, well below their season average. Neither team shot better than 43% overall in Game 4. Again, you’ve got to think we’ll see better shot-making this evening. 

The Over has been a winning bet five of the last six times that Dallas has been favored. They are favored tonight (first time in the series). The Mavs have attempted 42 or more threes each of the last three games. That volume coupled with the likelihood of improved long-distance shooting by the Jazz has me on the OVER.

Could the Nets really be swept right out the first round? Bet on it! Boston, who many believed could come out of the East if they won this series, is quickly cementing itself as the team to beat in this conference. They are clearly the better team in this series and I will take the points in Game 4.

Though both Philadelphia and Golden State failed to sweep their series, teams holding a 3-0 series lead are still on a 29-15 straight run in Game 4’s. 

There is simply no homecourt advantage for Brooklyn this year as they’ve gone 9-33 ATS at the Barclays Center. While the knee-jerk reaction to that record is to blame the absence of Kyrie Irving for most of those games, the bottom line is the Nets are 1-7 ATS their last eight games here, including the 109-103 loss in Game 3. 

Kevin Durant is struggling mightily in this series. He’s averaging only 22 points per game on 36.5% shooting. That scoring average would be the lowest in any postseason series in Durant’s entire career. I can’t say that I’m that surprised as Boston is arguably the top defensive team in the NBA. They are even stronger with Robert Williams back. Al Horford is having himself an excellent series. Jayson Tatum is averaging 29.7 points and Jaylen Brown is averaging 22.7 while shooting better than 50 percent.

Boston is 14-8 ATS in the underdog role this season. Brooklyn is 17-38 ATS as a favorite. I expect the Celtics to end this series Monday night. 

The last two games of this series went Over. But that was with some real hot shooting, from New Orleans in Game 2 (56.7 percent from three!) and then Phoenix in Game 3 (67% from inside the arc). I had the ATS winner of each game, but it’s back to the Under (which I had in Game 1) for Game 4.

Devin Booker being out for Phoenix is a big deal. The Suns still scored 114 points without their leading scorer on Friday, but were 4 of 26 on three-point attempts and are going to continue to struggle in that regard. Booker made seven threes (all in the first half) in Game 2. 

The Over has hit seven straight times when these teams have played in New Orleans. But there were a lot of free throws in Game 3. The Suns and Pelicans combined to make 46 of 58 from the line. Expect a decrease in this area for Game 4. 

We’ve seen great overall shooting the last two games with both teams hitting over 50 percent from the field. I just don’t think that can continue. I expect the Pelicans to start missing more threes.

New Orleans is 15-8 under this season playing with revenge for a home loss. Take the Under.

Today’s starters appear to be going in opposite directions. Brubaker is still working down his ERA from his first start, but has improved in runs allowed and length in each of the next two. He is off a couple of mostly lost years, but the Pirates have high expectations of him now that he is healthy. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 2 runs, with 6 strikeouts in his third start.

Cubs’ lefty Steele started well, with 5 innings of shout-out ball, but has been progressively worse in the following two starts. He gave up 4 runs on 2+ innings last time out.

No one likes to lose 21-0, so the Pirates’ response ought to be strong. They are a significant underdog on Sunday, but there are things to like about their chances. Their starter is trending in the right direction, they’ve been good versus left handed pitching, and they have played better on the road this spring. The Cubs are tops in offense right now, but scoring 21 runs in a game will pad the figures. They have been poor vs lefthanded pitching and at home, especially as a home favorite.

Take the Pirates + 1 1/2.

Cardinals long time starter Wainwright has one sub-par start, but the other two were vintage Wainwright. He limited hits and runs in both and struck out 6 per game. He contrasts with Reds rookie Lodolo. He has had mixed results so far in his first season; 12 strikeouts in 2 games, but an inflated ERA and 2 losses as well. Lodolo looks like he has some up-side, but may take a few games to settle in.

The faltering Reds are 2-12, 0-3 at home, and were shut-out by the Cards on Saturday. Of note, they are just 1-7 against right-handed pitching. They haven’t scored more than two runs in eight games, and it is unlikely that they will break out against Wainwright.

The Cards are off to a very good start with solid starting pitching, a bullpen right up at the top of the heap, and better than average offense from a veteran lineup. Here is an opportunity for the offense to take a rookie pitcher down a couple of pegs. Take the Cardinals to win – 1 ½.

KC’s starter Bubic was batted around and never got out of the 1st inning in Start #1. He was much better the second time around, allowing just 1 run, but was wild, giving up 6 walks. Bubic started poorly last year as well before settling down for a very good first month. I expect more of Bubic in his 3rd start. The Royals were off to a very poor start but have turned things around lately, winning 3 of 4. Their bullpen has not been the best, but the real culprit is their offense. They are the bottom of the barrel in both average and power, and have scored just 31 runs this season.

The Mariners, off to a better start, also have better offense at this point. They too are poor for average, but have been hitting the long ball. Brash, a young right hander wilth a healthy up-side starts for Seattle. He has started the season with a pair of 5+ inning, 2 run efforts, but also was wild in his second start (6 walks).

I favor the Mariners in Saturday’s game. They have been solid at home so far, with the better offense and bull pen. I am betting on another good game from Brash, and a surge from the Mariners' bats in the late innings.. Take the Mariners to take this one.

Brooklyn finds itself down 0-2 in this best of seven series and while they are now at home, the Nets’ ATS record at the Barclays Center this season (9-32) leaves a lot to be desired. It is in fact the worst home ATS record in the NBA. So I’m not interested in playing them in Game 3.

Games 1 and 2 both finished close to the oddsmakers’ total. Game 1 just went Over while Game 2 just stayed Under. I think Game 3 is likely to be the lowest scoring game of the series. 

Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and on the road, they give up an average of just 105.2 points per game. Brooklyn is 4-0 Under when trailing in a playoff series. 

The Nets have actually shot better from the field than have the Celtics so far, 51.3% to 47.7%. I do not believe the Nets can stay over 50% against the defensive-minded Celtics. On the flip side, the Celtics won’t shoot as well as they did in Game 2 when they finished at 52.0%.

Brooklyn is shooting 46% from three in the series, which will be a difficult percentage to maintain. The Under is 21-8 in Brooklyn home games when the total is 220 points or higher. Take the UNDER.

The Jazz ought to be embarrassed here as they are down two games to one in this series, despite Luka Doncic having not played a single minute for the Mavericks. Doncic says he’s feeling “no pain” in his calf and thus his status has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4. Either way, I like Utah minus the points in this one.

Perhaps the Jazz got overconfident when it was announced that Doncic would miss Game 3. They were down 17 at halftime and while it turned into a close game in the fourth quarter, Utah still lost by eight points. This despite shooting 56.5% overall from the field and going 31 of 33 from the free throw line!

The big difference in Game 3 was Utah shooting 9 of 28 from three while Dallas was 18 of 42. Making twice as many three as your opponent is a big deal and is a discrepancy that certainly isn’t likely to be repeated here in Game 4. I also can’t see Jalen Brunson continuing his run, whether Doncic returns or not, as Brunson has averaged 36 points the last two games. 

Utah is an outstanding team at home where it has outscored its opponents by 9.4 points per game this year. Only Golden State has beaten its visitors by a wider margin over the course of 2021-22. 

This is a must win game for the Jazz. Whether or not Doncic returns for Dallas, look for the Jazz to cover the spread. 

The Blue Jays meet the Astros for the second game of the series in Houston. Astros starter Urquidy was shelled the first time out, but was much more as expected in his second. He will have to pitch very well on Saturday to match the Jays’ starter Manoah, who has been dominant in his first two starts, pitching for length early in the season.

Both teams have at least 1 big bat down. The Astros hitters have not found their form yet. Their team batting average is sub.200, and the runs just aren’t coming. The Jays have the edge on offense at the moment, but if he is on form, Urquidy is tough to take advantage of. The Astros have the better bullpen, but the Jays’ closer has won 8 straight.

The total for this game is high, but it doesn’t reflect the quality of the starters or relievers. The Astros in particular have not lived up to their reputation on offense to date. Take this game to go Under.

The Sabres can be counted on for goals, for and against.  9 of their last 10 games have gone over today’s total. Their scoring has been explosive. They are far over their season’s average of 2.8 goals a game, however their defense is 25th rated.

The Islanders are known for defense and goal-tending, but 5 of their last 7 games have also have been on or over today’s total. The last game between these two teams resulted in 9 goals. The Sabres are hot, winning 4 of 5 games. They are a young team who are enjoying putting things together at this point in the season. Watch the Sabres drive today’s total up and over.

Even without Devin Booker, I expect the Suns to beat the Pelicans in Game 3. They outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions without Booker when Chris Paul was on the court. Look for Cameron Payne to step it up in Booker’s absence as well. 

In Game 2, New Orleans took full advantage of Booker leaving, springing a 125-114 upset. They shot the lights out, making 17 of their 30 three-point tries and finishing at 54% overall from the field. Even though they are now back at home, don’t look for the Pelicans to match their Game 2 shooting.

It is important to note that Phoenix is 14-3 against the spread this season when seeking revenge for a loss. They are 63-34 in that situation the previous three seasons.

The Suns are simply the better team here, having won 63 games in the regular season. Booker missed 14 regular season games. The team has the second highest defensive efficiency rating on the road and can claim a 13-3 ATS mark when the spread is three points or less, in either direction.

Coming off its best three-point shooting night of the entire season, there’s no way that New Orleans doesn’t regress offensively here. It would be a shock to see the Pelicans win this series, so I’m playing this one accordingly.

After Game 1 easily stayed Under, Game 2 finished right at the number and your result on the O/U may vary. Miami scored 115 in both games while Atlanta increased its offense from 91 to 105 points in Game 2.

Expect the Hawks to increase their number of points scored again here in Game 3. I’m confident in that assessment because they’re now back home, for the first time since scoring 132 in the play-in tournament against Charlotte. For the season, Atlanta is averaging 117 points/game at State Farm Arena.

That’s the second highest home average in the league, trailing only Memphis. Also, the Hawks finished the regular season tops in the NBA in number of points scored per possession. Bottom line - this team can score and will tonight. 

The problem for the Hawks comes on the defensive end. They give up 112.2 points/game and have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the playoffs. Miami’s Jimmy Butler scored 45 points in Game 2. He probably won’t match that number here, but the Heat can easily score 115 as a team again.

Six of the Heat’s last eight road games have gone Over. Atlanta is shooting below 30% from three in the series and that number is going to go up tonight. The Hawks have averaged 124.5 points in their last five home games. Take the OVER. 

The Marlins’ starter Trevor Rogers, despite showing so well as a rookie, is off to a poor start: 2 game started, 6+innings total pitched, 12.15 ERA. Sophomore jinx or slow start? Pitching mechanics appear to be involved, so maybe no quick fix?

The Braves are starting Kyle Wright for the third time. Wright broke through in the playoffs last year, and followed that success with a fine start in 2022. He has 2 wins, a 1.64 ERA and a ton of strike-outs. The Braves’ bull pen is middling at the moment; advantage goes to the Marlins in relief.

While the Braves batters haven’t really found their form, I have more faith in their bats than the Marlins for offense. Wright is coming in to this game full of confidence. Look for him to have another fine outing. I am wagering on Atlanta to win.

St Louis starter Matz’s ERA still looks ugly; it will take more than a game or two to average out that poor first start. His second start gets top marks, and I think he will carry on well from there.

He will match up against the Reds’ young phenom, Hunter Greene. He has started twice this year with mixed results. The positives are: 10+ innings pitched, 13 strikeouts. The negatives: 6 runs given up, of 9 hits total, 3 were home-runs. Greene has the Reds’ last win. They have lost 9 straight times since. They’ve scored just 13 runs in 8 games and in addition to struggling batters, the Reds have a poor bullpen as well.

The Cards are off to a fine start with quality starting pitching, solid hitting, and a very hot catcher. They also have the league’s 2nd best bullpen ERA. I think the Reds’ third win will have to wait a while. Take the Cards, on the road, to win.

The first two games of this series both went Over. Game 1 seemed destined to go Under, but the teams combining for a 70-point fourth quarter changed that. Game 2 saw the Warriors turn in a 44-point quarter. 

Denver has averaged only 106.5 points in the two games, so they are not really getting the job done offensively. Nikola Jokic has yet to make a three (0 for 8). This isn’t too surprising as Golden State is one of the top defensive teams, something they do not get enough credit for. 

Now the Warriors only average 109.0 points on the road, so expect their scoring to go down tonight. Jordan Poole is enjoying a breakout series as he’s drained 19 of 29 field goal attempts, which includes a sick 10 of 17 from three point range. No longer shooting at home, Poole can’t continue those numbers.

When playing with exactly two days of rest between games, the Warriors are 8-1 Under this season. They are 22-8 Under in that situation since the beginning of the 2019-20 season.

I just think Denver will play better defensively tonight. Golden State is 5-2 Under its last seven trips here.

The Leafs are hot, the Lightning are not. Goal-tending has been an issue for the Leafs, but Campbell has been sharp lately, and the defense looks to have tightened up with their deadline addition. They still have that dominant and potent offense we have seen all season.

The Lightning are struggling and goal-tending, usually a huge plus, has not been up to snuff recently. It is not as if this game doesn’t mean anything for Tampa; they could very well play themselves into a wild card spot with a loss. The Leafs pummeled the Lighting in April and Tampa has not won against a top team in 10 games.

The Leafs are good on the road, and a small underdog today. The Lightning have given up 11 goals in 3 games, abnormal considering their opponents. The Leafs are not a team to engage in a goal-fest. Take Toronto to steal this one.

Despite Game 2 finishing well below the total, the O/U line remains high here for Memphis-Minnesota Game 3. It’s not nearly as high as it was for Game 2, but considering the Under hit by 20 points in that last game, I’m not sweating it. Plus I don’t think oddsmakers have properly adjusted for the series moving to Minnesota.

Timberwolves’ road games have averaged 236.5 total points this season, which would certainly seem to justify the high totals we saw in Games 1 and 2. (Game 1 did go Over, by the way). But Timberwolves’ home games have averaged only 221.6 total points this season. That is a striking split.

That split is clearly reflected in the O/U results. T’wolves road games are 31-12 to the Over. At home, it’s 21-20-1 Under. 

The big difference is on the defensive end where Minnesota allows 10 fewer points per game at home than what they give up on the road. Their own scoring also declines by about five points per game.

Memphis is 8-2 to the Under in road games when the total is 230 or higher. The number is just too high. 

Carrasco starts for the Mets. 2021 was a lost year for him, and he didn’t show well in the spring, but was lights out in his first two starts, lasting 5 + innings in each game and giving up only one run in total.

The Mets and Giants are presently 1st and 2nd in both team and relief pitching this year, so no real advantage there, however the Mets’ rebuilt offense is playing significantly better than the Giants’ so far. Off a loss, but ahead in the series 2-1, I like Carrasco and the Mets’ chances on Thursday. They are playing at home and are hitting for power and average at the moment. Descianfani has yet to prove himself this spring. It could be close, but take the Mets to win.

White Sox starter Dylan Cease broke out last year, was great in the spring, and has been equally strong in his first two starts. He has a pair of 5 inning, 1 run, 8 strikeout victories to date. He is up against the Guardians’ Zack Plesac. Plesac’s first start was a 5 inning gem but he gave up a couple of runs on home runs in his second. Oddly, Plesac also faced the White Sox in his third start last year, and was roughed up.

The Guardians are just about “top of the bops” this year, leading in RBIs. The White Sox are down the list at 25th. Where the Sox have the edge is in the bullpen, with lower ERA and 5 saves to the Guardians’ one. Off a pair of losses to Cleveland, look for the Sox to work extra hard to avoid the sweep. While both bullpens have bee successful in the first two games, I like the Sox’ ability to finish. Count on Cease to move the dial back towards win. Take the Sox to rebound.

Philadelphia is up 2-0 in the series, but now it shifts to Toronto where the Raptors hope a change of scenery leads to better results. They’ve dropped the first two games by scores of 131-111 and 112-97. Game 1 went Over while Game 2 went Under.

The 76ers have become a much more dominant offensive team since acquiring James Harden, which is not all that surprising. They played eight games in April and the fewest number of points scored in any of them was 112. It’s not just Harden and Joel Embiid either; don’t forget Tyrese Maxey going for a team-high 38 points in Game 1. 

For the series, Philly is shooting 51.7% overall, 48% from three and 86% from the line. Can they continue these percentages on the road? Maybe not, but I still expect them to score more than 112 points in this game.

Despite potentially being short-handed again, Toronto should shoot better here than they did in Game 2. We know Thaddeus Young will be back while the statuses of Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr remain up in the air. The Over is 24-16 in Raptors’ home games. They average 111 points per game themselves at home. 

The 76ers are 16-5-3 Over in their previous 24 games as a road favorite. As an away favorite, the team’s games average 223.6 points per game. Prior to Game 2, the Sixers’ previous five games had all gone Over. 

Ageless Charlie Morton looked good in the spring and in his first start, but blew a tire in the second. An off game? Probably, but worth noting. The 5-7 Braves’ start has been just OK to date, and as one would expect, that goes for their hitting, and bull pen. They are on the road and up against the 8-2 Dodgers, a hot team with a definite chip on their collective shoulder. Gonsolin starts for LA, also up to start #3; He was good in his first start, and even better in his second. He hasn’t pitched many innings to date, but he does have that fine Dodgers’ bullpen to back him up.

The Dodgers are at home, outhitting the Braves, have better relievers and will be super-motivated . They ran into a tough pitcher in Max Fried on Tuesday, and will be wanting payback. Take Gonsolin and the Dodgers in this one.

The White Sox have started strongly despite the loss of three top pitchers. After the day’s delay Keuchel will start the first half of a double header for the Sox. Keuchel was steady in his first start, lasting five innings, giving up 3 runs, with 5 strikeouts. He had a rough 2021, but is only a year away from a very good season. The Sox’ pitching has been solid in relief, but their offense is just low to mid-pack so far.

Keuchel is up against the Guardians’ ace Shane Bieber. Two starts in, Bieber has impressed, lasting 10 innings and giving up just 3 runs. Cleveland started well, but was just swept by the Giants, so it will be up to Bieber to adjust the dial back to WIN. The Guardians offense is 3rd ranked at the moment. Cleveland’s bats didn’t show well against the Giants’ fine starters, but have more of a chance vs. Keuchel on Tuesday. Take Bieber and the Guardians to win.

The Suns did nothing in Game 1 to dissuade you from thinking they are the best team in the league. They jumped all over the Pelicans, taking a 28-16 lead after the first quarter and never looking back after that. They led by 19 at halftime and ended up winning 110-99, just barely covering the 10-point spread. 

Remember that New Orleans had to win twice just to get here, so they were at a severe disadvantage heading into the first game.

But that disadvantage no longer exists for Game 2 and I’m liking the Pelicans to at least cover the spread in tonight’s matchup. While Phoenix is 24-3 straight up this season as a favorite of eight points or more, they are only 14-13 against the spread.

New Orleans shot especially poorly from two-point range in Game 1. They made only 27 of 72 attempts inside the arc, which is 37.5%, a very low number. Expect them to be more efficient there tonight. Eight missed free throws in Game 1 didn’t help the Pelicans either. 

Despite digging themselves into such an early hole, the Pelicans found themselves down only six in the fourth quarter. I don’t expect them to fall into that kind of an early hole again in Game 2. Take the points here as New Orleans is 5-1 ATS following its previous six SU losses. 

The ‘not so bad” Bruins are just 2-4 in recent games, and have some key injuries at the wrong time of the season, including David Pasternak. Not coincidentally, the Bruins offense has been sputtering, scoring just 2 goals in each game of their last 4.

Meanwhile, the Blues have been absolutely dominant, beating everyone in sight, and averaging a whopping 5 goals for in their last 10 games. The Blues have found their stride, and are a team no one wants to face in the play-offs. It is likely Swayman vs Husso in net. Advantage to the home team Blues. Take St Louis all the way today.

The 7-2 Giants aren’t big on giving up runs, allowing just 7 in their last five games. Alex Cobb is back for his second start, and likely won’t change the “low runs allowed” pattern, if his first start was anything to go by.

The  road Giants take on the Mets, another team off to a fine start. One reason the Mets are flourishing is the fine start from Tylor Megill, who did not give up a run in his first two starts. He was equally fine in the spring.

Here is a fine opportunity for early total. The Mets are right behind the Giants for fewest runs against.  Both pitchers are have been tough on the opposition and will likely go at least 5 innings. Take the under.

Game 1 of this series went Over, but only because the teams combined for 70 points in the fourth quarter. The entire way, the series seemed to be on a trajectory to stay Under and even with the ridiculous amount of scoring that we saw in the fourth quarter, it only made it Over by a handful of points.

Will Jordan Poole score 30 points again, as he did in his playoff debut Saturday night? Probably not! 

Don’t forget that in the regular season Golden State gave up the fewest number of points per 100 possessions in the entire league. So Denver, who is playing without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, should be kept in check again. Nikola Jokic can’t do it all himself against this Warriors team.

Line movement suggests that Under is the “sharp” play for Game 2. I think that both teams are headed for some offensive regression and the Nuggets should play better defensively with a game under their belts.

Steph Curry is still working back into shape. That and Poole’s regression tell me Under is the right call tonight.

The 2-8 Reds are presently sitting 29th and 30th in team pitching and hitting respectively. The Padres aren’t off to the best of starts but are mid-pack or better in the same categories. Padres starter and recent pick-up Sean Manea has two starts under his belt. One was very good and the other was remarkable; 7 innings of shutout ball.

He faces promising Reds youngster Nick Lodolo, who bombed in his MLB debut, lasting 4 innings with very mixed results. Lodolo won’t be on a very long leash, which is bad news for the Reds as the relievers have struggled.

The Reds are on a sizable losing streak with just one of their eight losses being close. Manaea will likely pitch long if his first two starts are anything to go by, and he is not the starter that a struggling team wants to face. I think the Padres will win this one handily, lighting up the Reds pen if not Lodolo. I am a bit gun-shy of the spread after tanking twice on Sunday. Take the Padres to win.

They started slow, but eventually the Jazz overwhelmed the Luka Doncic-less Mavs and took Game 1 by a score of 99-93. As you can guess from that final score, neither side shot all that well. I’m expecting better shooting tonight and thus a higher-scoring Game 2. 

Let’s get the big news out of the way first. Doncic is not expected to play in Game 2. This is obviously a horrible break for the Mavs as they try to avoid starting this series by dropping two straight home games. Despite Doncic’s presumed absence, you’ve got to figure that at home the Mavs are going to shoot better than 38.2 percent, which is where they were at in Game 1. They also missed eight free throws and were 9 of 32 on three-point attempts.

Donovan Mitchell scored 30 of his team-high 32 points in the second half Saturday. Utah is one of the game’s higher scoring teams at 113.1 points per game, so they too are likely to improve their own shooting. 

This total is quite low, among the lowest I’ve seen for any NBA matchup all season. It’s THE lowest for any Jazz game in 2021-22 and currently the second lowest for any Mavs’ game. 

The Over is 7-1 when Utah is leading in a playoff series and I fully expect that trend to continue tonight. This number is just too low. 

New Orleans had to win two play-in games to get here and now must deal with a Suns team that had the league’s best regular season record. In the first play-in game, the Pelicans mostly controlled the Spurs from start to finish, only allowing the game to get close for a brief time in the fourth quarter. There were some wild swings vs. the Clippers with NO taking a 10-point lead into halftime, only to be outscored by 20 in the third quarter.

But the Pelicans obviously bounced back in the fourth quarter where they outscored the Clippers (who didn’t have Paul George) 31-17. While New Orleans shot exceptionally well (54.3%) against San Antonio, that game was at home. On the road, they could only 27.3 percent from three vs. the Clippers.

Phoenix is one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but their last five regular season contests all went Under. Some of that had to do with the lack of stakes involved (they’d already clinched the top seed), but it would be a mistake to discount the Suns’ defense. Visitors only shoot 43.8% here in Phoenix (for the year).

The two times these teams played in Phoenix this year, the Under ended up going 2-0. Since the Suns have been off for awhile (a whole week), they may not be sharp offensively.

The Pelicans held the Spurs to 103 points and the Clippers to 101 points. Both of those games stayed Under. The Under is 15-5-1 in their previous 21 road games. 

33 to 0! Those numbers are the respective ERAs of Sunday’s starters at this point in the season. A’s starter Adam Oller had his MLB debut fall apart after just 1+ innings. Expect better results the second time around, but he will face a very tough Blue Jays lineup off a loss.

Young Jays starter Manoah was the real thing last year, and appears to be in good form now if his first start is anything to go by. While the other Jays starters have struggled, Manoah and the bullpen have been solid. Manoah went six innings the first time out, so he may not need that much help.

The As have been over-achieving so far this year, and their bats have actually out-paced the Blue Jays to date. Don’t count on this continuing on Sunday. I very much doubt their success against Manoah. Take the Jays –1 1/2

The Yankees are tops in team pitching at the moment. Sundays’ starter Nestor Cortes shut down the potent Blue Jays lineup, giving up just 3 hits in 4+ innings. He is off an eye-opening 2021, and looks to continue this season. Backed by a scorching Yankees bullpen, don’t expect a ton of runs from Orioles’ bats on Sunday.

Zimmerman starts for the Orioles. He missed a chunk of time last year, and had a rough spring, but was strong in his first start. The Orioles relief corps can’t match the Yankees bullpen.

The 2-5 Orioles’ team batting average is sitting at a buck ninety-nine at the moment, good for 27th in the league. While the Yankees’ offense has not quite hit its stride, it is 12th and climbing, and it really is just a matter of time before a break-out. With their division as tight as it is expected to be, the Yanks can’t afford losses against the Orioles, even at this point in the season. Take New York to win – 1 ½.

The 9-1 Av’s are very good anywhere, but have only lost 5 games at home this season. They can and have been beating teams in a variety of ways, but what is perhaps most impressive for such an offensively focused team is that they have held 5 of their last 10 opponents to 2 goals or under. Clearly, Colorado is looking ahead and playing successful post season-style hockey early.

Carolina has not looked sharp of late. They are just 5-5 L10, including losses to some low ranked opponents. Their defense has been mostly as good as usual, but there has been no consistency to their offense. This is not the way to approach the playoffs. The Av’s are getting solid goal-tending from Kuemper, and can score on anyone. While the Hurricanes have been a very solid road team this season, I don’t care for their chances against a super hot and focused Av’s side. Take Colorado to win.

The Nuggets and Warriors open their best of seven series Saturday night in San Francisco with the home team pretty heavily favored. Unders dominated the NBA’s Play-In Round, cashing in all six games. We’re bound to have on Over on Saturday, but it won’t be this game.

Over their last five contests, Denver scored an average of 123.8 points while also giving up an average of 125.0. That’s clearly more than usual. For the year, Nuggets’ games averaged 223.1 points as they scored 112.7 and allowed 110.4. On the road, both those numbers dipped to 110.7 and 108.4 for a total average 219.1 points per game. 

Golden State comes into the playoffs on a five-game win streak and will likely have their full complement of players, including Steph Curry, ready to go on Saturday. But after Curry missed so much time (hasn’t played since 3/16), I believe it would be an error to expect a big game from him.

The Warriors did end up #1 in defensive efficiency for the regular season, which means they allow the fewest number of points per possession in the league. They allow only 103.1 points per game at home.

The Under is 6-2 in the previous eight meetings. The playoffs are upon us and points are harder to come by. Take the Under

 The Rangers' start has not been promising, and so far, pitching has been the culprit.  Hearn, a sometimes-starter last year, gave Texas a quality start, but it lasted just 4 innings.  It is what happens after the Rangers starter leaves today that is concerning.  The Rangers are last in the league in team pitching so far.

The Angels are sitting at .500, with a strong 7th rated offense.  Syndergaard starts for the 2nd time.  He did his part in his first start witha dominant outing.  The Angels' relief has not been terrific, but is at least better than the Rangers, and Old Noah will likely pitch further into the game than Hearn.

I am on the side of the good guys today.  Take the Angels to win.

Minnesota had to win a game in the Play-In Tournament to get here, but I believe they are being undervalued in Game 1 at Memphis. The Timberwolves were very much on par with some of the teams in the West’s top six - like Dallas and Denver - and I expect them to make this a competitive series. 

I am pretty confident that the Timberwolves will get a better game out of Karl-Anthony Towns than what they got Tuesday vs. the Clippers. Towns played one of the worst games of his career, finishing with 11 points on only three made baskets. He also fouled out. But teammates Edwards (30 points) and Russell (29) bailed KAT out. 

These teams met four times in the regular season and each won twice. While the home team won all four games, all but one was close and that was a 138-95 win for the Timberwolves. Thanks to that one blowout, Minnesota outscored Memphis in the four games and shot better - both overall and from three.

The fact Memphis hasn’t played a meaningful game in quite awhile may have an adverse effect here. Ja Morant has played only one game since March 18th. He was 3 for 20 on three-point attempts in the four games vs. Minnesota this year.

The Timberwolves have won and covered all three times this year when they’ve played with three or more days of rest. Memphis did have the second best record in the league and isn’t what I’d call a “public team,” but they are overvalued here. Take the points.

After a lost year in 2021, Carrasco pitched adequately in spring and superbly in his first start. A healthy Carrasco would be a huge plus for the Mets, especially considering their present starter injuries.

After a couple of strong seasons, Zac Galen also had a rough time last year, pitching ineffectively around injury sessions. He started late this spring, so call him a question mark early in the season, and don’t expect too many innings from him.

The Mets are getting very effective relief and plenty of offense, especially in their last three games. They blew out the Diamondbacks on Friday. While it likely will be a closer game, the weak-hitting D-backs won’t have an easy time against Carrasco. Take the hometown Mets to win outright..

It’s win or go home for the Pelicans and Clippers tonight on ESPN. The winner of this game will be the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The loser’s season will come to an end.

Home teams have gone 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS so far in the play-in tournament. New Orleans was one of the four winners by beating San Antonio 113-103. They were up by as many as 19 points in the fourth quarter. The Clippers were not as good down the stretch in Minnesota and they lost 109-104. But by virtue of finishing in 8th place, they get a second chance and are the home team for this game.

The Pelicans’ top three players all got the job done Wednesday. CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas combined for 81 points on 32 of 56 shooting. I do not think you should look too much into the team’s 37-46 SU record. They are 34-30 since a dreadful 3-16 start and have been a much better team since acquiring McCollum. 

The Pelicans were 3-1 vs. the Clippers this season with the three wins coming by an average of 18.7 points. Also, Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS this season when playing with exactly two days of rest. 

Even with the home court advantage, I’m not sure that LA should be favored here. Certainly not by this many points. Take the underdog here as an outright win would not surprise me. Paul George just doesn’t have enough help.