Seattle’s young starter Logan Gilbert, finished 2021 strongly and was terrific in his first start of this season. The question is, will Seattle give him any run support? The Mariner bats have been slow to start this year.

The Mariners are up against the White Sox’ inexperienced pitcher Lambert. He started 3 games last year to mixed results, and didn’t pitch much this spring. The White Sox have started the season well, and their offense has been solid, but I think they’ll struggle vs. Gilbert. Between Seattle’s starter and Seattle’s bat, don’t look for a high-scoring game. I’m wagering on the Under

The Spurs and Pelicans do battle on Wednesday with the winner earning the right to face the Clippers-T’wolves loser. That game will determine the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The loser here is eliminated.

It wasn’t until late in the season that San Antonio made its move, overtaking the floundering Lakers for the 10th spot. The Spurs finished the regular season at 34-48 SU, but 43-37-2 ATS. They are 9-1-1 ATS over the last 11 games, but have lost the last three straight up.

New Orleans was 36-46 SU, but 42-40 ATS. They lost their last two regular season games after winning five of the previous six.

I think the total is too high here. Spurs’ games averaged 226.2 points per game this year. Pelicans’ games averaged 219.6. The teams faced off four times in the regular season. Three of them went Under, all with 213 or less total points scored.

The Spurs are 6-1 Under their last seven games against a team with a losing record. The Pelicans are 13-5 Under their last 18 games as a home favorite. Take the Under.

The White Sox are off to a solid 3-1 start but will be in tough against the Mariners on Wednesday. Keuchal starts for the Sox in a bit of a pitching mismatch. He is off a rough 2021 campaign and an equally rough spring training. He is up against premier lefty Robbie Ray. Ray started the season just as he left off last year with a dominant 7 inning start in the Mariners’ opener.

Seattle started the season well but dropped their last two games. They haven’t scored much yet, but they may not need to with Ray on the mound. The odds are favorable considering the pitching match-up. Take the Mariners to win.

Hendricks and the Cubs knocked off the Brewers on opening day after a fine start from their ace. The Cubs are off to a good start, winning the series against the Brewers, and taking their first game from the Pirates.

Pirates starter Zach Thompson also looked good in his first start. Although prone to some wildness, Thompson pitched to a good ERA last year, and showed well in spring. The Pirates did not win for Thompson last year and are not off to a good start this year. They scored a ton of runs against Matz in their sole win, but have been limited to just 3 runs in their other 3 games.

The Cubs do tend to win when Hendricks is on the mound. They found enough offense to win 2of 3 against a tough Astros pitching staff. The Cubs are a slight favorite on Wednesday, and rightly so. Take the Cubs to win again vs the Pirates.

After losing 2 straight and still in a playoff race, the Predators will be in “must-win” mode against the Sharks. Nashville is a very good home team, and has beaten the Sharks twice, last time by an 8-0 score.

The Sharks are one of the poorest road teams, and have struggled on offense all year, but their defense is also in tough shape in recent games. They have averaged four or more goals against in their last 7 games, losing all 7. Nashville needs a turn-around on offense after a couple of tough opponents, and this is the perfect opportunity. The Stars poor offense plus the recent flood of goals-against equals a Preds’ big win. Take the Predators – 1 ½.

This is a matchup of a Top 10 team in defensive efficiency (Cleveland) against a Top 10 team in offensive efficiency (Brooklyn). The Nets won three of the four regular season matchups and with Kyrie Irving now a full-time participant, it’s no wonder why the home team is a decided favorite in this play-in scenario. Cleveland slumped badly down the stretch, going 3-8 SU and ATS over its last 11 games.

But Brooklyn wasn’t exactly profitable here at home either. They possess the worst home ATS mark in the NBA at 9-31-1. So let’s play the total instead.

The Nets have scored a minimum of 110 points in every game they’ve played going back to March 6th. Cleveland’s defensive numbers also seemed to fall off a cliff down the stretch, allowing at least 112 points in six of the last seven games. 

Over each team’s last five games, both are averaging more total points (scored + allowed) than the total for this game. 

This is a low total for Brooklyn. They haven’t seen a total below 230 points since March 18th. The last three Nets’ games with a total sub-230 points all went Over. The Over is 11-4 in the Cavs’ previous 15 games. 

Young Phillies starter Suarez did everything asked of him last year and looks like a future star, however he had a very limited spring due to visa issues and may be on a short leash this early in the season. The Phillies did some very necessary work on their disaster of a bull pen, but it remains to be seen if it can be enough of a support for Phillies starters. Offensively, the Phillies have power to spare, so they should be competitive in the NL East.

They begin a home series as a favorite against the Mets, the projected leader of their division on Monday. Taijuan Walker starts for New York. Walker was excellent until the All star break, then he fell fast and hard. He too has had a short spring, and may also be limited in innings. While both teams have started well, I still have more faith in the Mets’ bullpen. New York’s rebuilt star-studded offense will give the Phillies a run.  Look for the Mets to keep it close. Take New York +1 1/2.

Monday's A's/Rays matchup pits Blackburn vs. Patino.  Blackburn has been a part-time starter with an unheralded career and a high ERA.  He has not broken any records this spring.  The A's sold the farm and are in fulltime rebuild mode, so any game against the Rays is a bit of a mismatch.  If the A's are going to beat the Rays, it won't likely be with Blackburn starting.

The Rays are off to a good start to no-one's surprise, due in no small part to their bevy of young tough pitchers.  Patino is another promising righty who showed well last year.  In limited action, he has performed well this spring.

The A's are likely still in shock mode with all of the recent changes.  Look for the home-town Rays to wear them out on Monday.  Take the Rays - 1 1/2.

The 76ers won Saturday 133-120 against Indiana. Joel Embiid had 41 points and 20 rebounds, the first time this season that any player had a 40-20 game. Embiid all but wrapped up the scoring title and the Sixers are guaranteed home court advantage for their first round playoff series.

There’s a chance that by the time this game tips off, the Sixers will be locked into the 4-seed. In order to move up into third, they would not only need to win this game, but have Boston lose earlier in the day to Memphis. If Boston wins that game, then the Sixers are locked into 4th. 

With the chance the Sixers have nothing to play for, I’ll take my chances here and grab the points. And even if the 3-seed is still a possibility, I don’t think the Sixers will win by enough to cover the spread.

There’s a chance that a Pistons’ win might hurt their lottery odds, but I still expect a semblance of pride and professionalism to take place here. "We just want to finish with the right spirit and the right togetherness," Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey said. 

Detroit has been on some incredible runs at the betting window. They are 18-3 ATS L21 as an underdog and 11-0 ATS L11 road games. Grab the points.

The Cardinals had a very strong spring and have rolled it right into the new season against the Pirates They’ve outscored the Pirates 15-2 in their first two games. This is a solid veteran-lead team with much expected of them. Steve Matz starts on Sunday. Matz turned things around last year and put up the best season of his career. He could be a fine pick-up for St. Louis. While he hasn’t had the best of springs, I am looking for him to carry last year’s success into 2022.

Bryce Wilson starts for the Pirates. He has struggled in his 6 year career, with a weakness for walks and home runs. He has had high strike-outs this spring, but a very poor ERA.

Any success the Pirates have will likely come later in the season as young talent gains experience. Look for the Cardinals to take advantage of a somewhat unformed team in the early stages of the season. Take St Louis – 1 ½.

The White Sox/Tigers match-up features 2 very fine young pitchers, Kopech for the Sox and Skubal for the Tigers. Skubal pitched a ton of innings for a youngster, and had some very good months in 2021. The Lefty has had a very dominant spring.

Kopech spent most of 2021 in the bullpen will just a handful of starts. We will see how he adapts to this new role, but he definitely has the right stuff. He hasn’t shown well this spring.

Detroit and Chicago split their first two games. The Tigers have managed to score late and keep things close. The White Sox are a favorite on Sunday, But I am on Skubal and the Tigers. Take Detroit +1 ½.

Golden State will have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It’s just a matter if they will end up as the third or fourth seed. The Warriors have won their last three games and covered the last four. Tonight they are in San Antonio to face a Spurs team that is headed for the play-in tournament.

The Spurs know that they will be facing the Pelicans in the 9-10 (seed) matchup of the play-in tournament. The next Pelicans win or Spurs loss will mean that game is guaranteed to be in New Orleans. Regardless, the Spurs are facing a situation where they’ll have to win two games next week (likely both on the road) to make the playoffs.

Over its last nine games, San Antonio is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS.

I’m looking at the Under cashing Saturday night. The Spurs have held their last three opponents below 43% shooting from the field. It looks like Klay Thompson, after a 33-point effort against the Lakers, will be given the night off. The Warriors are already without Steph Curry. Even if Thompson were to play, he’s not going 12 of 22 from the field again.

The Warriors will go into the playoffs near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. San Antonio has been without leading scorer Dejounte Murray the last few games and he’s questionable for tonight (still recovering from illness) as are several other starters. 

The Mets spoiled the party for the Nationals in days 1 and 2. Chris Bassitt starts for NY on Saturday. He was a great pickup and a consistent performer who threw well this spring.

The Nationals Adon is a promising youngster with just one game of experience in the bigs from last year. The Verdict on Adon is ‘good stuff but wild”. He has struggled this spring with a very high ERA.

The Mets’ new and improved offense has shown up in games 1 and 2, but not so the Nationals'. Look for a strong outing from Bassitt. If Adon’s wildness continues then he won’t last long and the Nats’ bullpen has not shown well this spring. I really like the Mets’ chances for three straight. Take the Mets to win outright.

The Panthers have won 9 of 10 and it has not been because of their defense. They have shown why they are the league’s top ranked offense, scoring 34 goals in 6 games, well above their season’s average. They have also allowed some big numbers; eighteen goals against in just 4 games.

The Preds are barely hanging on to a wild card spot, so this is a must-win. They have been averaging more than 4 goals for in their last 4 games, and have ridden their premier goalie very hard, resulting in a few dips in his usually strong play. Look for lots of shots on Saros, very wide open play, and plenty of goals from both sides.  Definitely a play for the over.

The Twins lost their opener in a pitchers’ duel. They’ll be all in for a win in Game Two. Minnesota rolls out Sonny Gray, a solid veteran pick-up this season. Gray is a workhorse and a better than average starter who has had a limited but solid spring.

Seattle sends out Logan Gilbert. He had some very good outings down the stretch last year, but his spring has been rough. Of note, this second year pitcher also started slowly last year. The rest of the Mariners’ pitching staff and the Twins staff have had solid springs. These two teams will likely prove to be evenly matched competitors this season. Gilbert may be the difference on Saturday. The Twins have plenty of potential offense this year. Tomorrow may be the day it starts to show. Take the Twins to get to the Mariners’ starter early and win outright.

Houston has been on a roll this spring, and the success has been on the backs of its pitching staff. The Astros’ offense has, surprisingly, not shown up this spring or, for that matter, in Game 1. Odorizzi has pitched mainly on the sidelines, but pitched well in his one appearance against the Mets. He has been moved up in rotation due to an early injury to McCullers.

The Angels have also had a good spring, showing offense and reasonable pitching. Detmers is a surprise starter in game 2, but has great potential and has had a very good spring. I am excited about his stuff and think he will show well against the Astros.

The Astros offense will break out sooner or later, but I am banking on it not happening on Friday. The total is relatively high; higher than I think is warranted in this match-up. Take this game to go under the total.

The Lightning have lost 3 straight and 6 of 10, and have fallen to a wild card spot. More to the point, they have lost ugly, allowing 15 goals in three games. Vasilevskiy has been a standout for most of the season, but some fatigue may be showing. He has played a ton of hockey this season.  The Lightning have seen more overs than unders latLEy.

The Lightning may be a good home team, but the Bruins, Friday’s opponent, are formidable on the road. The Bruins are 7-3 and have been scoring in bunches in their last ten games. Now in the top three in their division, it would appear that they also have momentum on their side. They are an underdog on Friday, but I think they will be looking to bounce back off a regrettable loss to the Red Wings.  A total of 6 is available.  This game will go over.

The Wizards and Knicks enter Friday with identical 35-45 straight up records. It’s been a disappointing campaign as both made the playoffs last year. The Knicks have really fallen as they were 4th in the East last season. 

New York has lost three of four, the only win coming against last place Orlando. They blew a 21-point lead to the Nets on Wednesday and ended up losing that game 110-98, not even covering!

Washington also experienced a double digit setback two days ago. They fell 118-103 in Atlanta. Before that though, they’d won three of four and put up 127 or more points in all three wins. 

I think by virtue of being at home, the Wizards have the edge Friday. This is their last home game of the season, so there should be some motivation to win the final game in front of fans. They are 5-1 ATS following a SU loss, going back to the end of March.

The Knicks have covered eight straight times as road underdogs and won their last four road games straight up. But those streaks end tonight. Two of those road wins were Orlando and Detroit. The Knicks (27th in scoring) just won’t be able to match the Wizards (119.8 PPG L5) offensively. 

The Lightning have lost 3 straight and 6 of 10, and have fallen to a wild card spot. More to the point, they have lost ugly, allowing 15 goals in three games. Vasilevskiy has been a standout for most of the season, but some fatigue may be showing. He has played a ton of hockey this season.  The Lightning have seen more overs than unders latLEy.

The Lightning may be a good home team, but the Bruins, Friday’s opponent, are formidable on the road. The Bruins are 7-3 and have been scoring in bunches in their last ten games. Now in the top three in their division, it would appear that they also have momentum on their side. They are an underdog on Friday, but I think they will be looking to bounce back off a regrettable loss to the Red Wings.  A total of 6 is available.  This game will go over.

The Tigers face the White Sox in their home opener, a team against which Detroit had some success in 2021, when they split their match-ups. Both teams have been just under .500 in spring training. The Tigers could be classed as up and coming this year.  Rodriguez starts for Detroit. The lefty has been a consistent performer in his career and has pitched 17 innings this spring with a reasonable ERA. The Tigers’ pitching staff has shown well so far, although their offense has yet to establish itself.

Much more is expected of the White Sox for 2022. Their offense has very good so far, with overall pitching lagging behind. Giolito starts on Friday, and he has had a very good spring. He faced the Tigers twice last year, splitting his appearances with both games going over the total.

It would be easy to count the Tigers out against the Sox, but with the Sox' strong batting and weak relief pitching in Spring, I more inclined to take a look at the total.   A reasonably low number is available, and with neither starter likely to go long, the bullpens will have some say.  Take this game to go over.

The Mets’ top 2 pitchers are on the injury list, leaving Megill as the unexpected season opener. Megill has pitched well this spring, and the rest of the pitching staff has been as good as any team’s in the early going.

Corbin starts for the Nationals. His 0.00 ERA for spring training doesn’t quite tell the whole story(unearned runs!) but he has pitched well. Let us not forget the Corbin of last year and the year before. A return to form could be possible, but I will have to see it to believe. The Nationals’ staff ERA has been in the sixes so far this spring.

While spring training wins and losses don’t really mean much, the Nationals have struggled, the Mets are at .500. I expect the Mets to lose some of their “low scoring” label of last year, with a very promising power surge expected. The Nationals are still a one trick pony as far as offense goes, and haven’t added significantly. Look for the Mets to start on the right foot and take their opener.

Charlotte’s defense hasn’t been good all season, but after the last two games it can only get better. The Hornets gave up 144 to both the Heat and 76ers as those games blew past the total. Tonight, I don’t think the Hornets will be giving up anywhere close to that number of points. 

"I don't think fatigue is a factor here," Charlotte coach James Borrego said after the latest loss. "There's things obviously we've got to correct." Well coach, facing Orlando should help. The Magic are tied for last in scoring at only 104 points per game.

The Magic did put 120 in a win over Cleveland Tuesday. But that was a) at home and b) the most points they’ve scored in a game in over two weeks. The previous two games saw the Magic score only 88 and 89 points. Offensive regression is in the cards for tonight.

Tuesday was only the third time all year that Orlando scored 120 or more in a game. The Under is 2-0 off the previous two times. The last time, they followed up by scoring only 90 (and allowing only 85!)

The Under is a perfect 8-0 in the Hornets' last eight Thursday night games. 

The “ever-young” Adam Wainwright is back as the starter in the Cardinals’ home opener. Will this be his final season? He was terrific last year, and other than a couple of rough innings, looked on form in Spring. The Cards had a great run last year and have started spring training strongly. This is very much a veteran team that knows how to win.

The Pirates enter the season dead last in the MLB power rankings. They are a young team with some interesting talent who may find their way into the bigs at some point in the season, but don’t look for them to make many waves right off the start. Brubaker is a surprise starter for the Pirates. He struggled badly last year with a very sizable ERA. The Pirates’ pitching staff has not shown well in spring training.

Today’s total is reasonably low. I expect the home favorite Cardinals to take advantage of an unsettled Pirates team with a questionable starter. A pitching gem is highly unlikely. Wager on the over in this match-up.

Even with nothing left to play for, Phoenix still won handily last night, beating the similarly disinterested Lakers 121-110. Both Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton “went off,” combining to shoot 22 of 36 from the field and scoring 54 points. As a team, it was impressive that the Suns scored 121 points despite attempting only nine free throws.

The Suns know they are the #1 seed in the West for the playoffs, the Clippers know they are headed for the play-in tournament and will be the 8-seed. For LA, that means they will have two shots to make the playoffs and only need to win once. They could face the Suns in the first round.

Despite having nothing to play for, the Clippers have performed well down the stretch. In a game where they rested starters, they scored 153 on Milwaukee. Then they beat the Pelicans 119-100 on Sunday, which was a win for us.

Before beating the Pelicans, the Clippers had gone Over in five straight. Four of those five games saw at least 236 total points scored.

The Suns are one of the top offensive teams in the league. Given the recent scoring outputs from both teams, how could you not go Over here?

The Flames have been on a mini-slump lately, but turned it around with an important road win vs. the Kings, and a big game from both Gaudreau and Markstrom.

The Ducks, after their first victory in ages, again showed poorly vs the Oilers last time out. Today won’t be any easier; the Flames are tough to play against at any time, and the Ducks, gutted at the trade deadline, show especially poorly vs top teams.

Look for Calgary to open up on offense, and their second-ranked defense to stifle the Ducks, as they look to outdo the Oilers. The Flames are a very good road team, and this game is a great opportunity to kick start the team after losing 3 of 4. Take Calgary on the puck line -1 ½.

It may seem like San Antonio is getting “a lot” of points in this matchup, but consider this is a team that has been well below .500 most of the year. There is a reason they are just trying to squeak into the play-in tournament. They simply aren’t that good.

It’s true that the Spurs have been winning lately, six of their past seven games. But three wins were against a dreadful Portland team and they also beat last place Houston. Denver is in a different class of those aforementioned foes.

The Nuggets are looking to clinch a spot in the top six of the conference standings, which will allow them to avoid the play-in tournament. They just need to win two of their final three games, all of which are at home 

The Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray has been ruled out for tonight. That’s significant. 

Denver has scored 125 or more points in each of its last three contests. This is a team that’s been on fire offensively and without Murray, I don’t see how the Spurs keep up.

The Bulls just can’t beat the top teams in the league. On Saturday, they lost by 16 here at home to the Heat, dropping them to 2-19 for the season against the four best teams in the East and West. The Bulls’ record vs. Milwaukee this year is 0-3, two of those losses coming last month, the last one by 28 points.

Throw in the fact the Bucks are going to come in motivated tonight and I’m all about fading the Bulls in this one. The Bucks have lost two straight. One of the losses saw them give up 153 points. The other, Sunday vs. Dallas, saw them blow an early lead.

That game where Milwaukee allowed 153 points should be disregarded as they rested their starters. The Bucks should be at full strength tonight. Look for Antetokounmpo and Middleton to shoot the ball better than they did vs. Dallas. In that last game, the duo combined to go 15 of 38 from the field and 0 for 7 from three.

The Bulls have the worst point differential of the Eastern Conference’s top six teams. In fact, eight teams in the East have a better point differential. Chicago would be fortunate to avoid the play-in round. 

Milwaukee is all but assured of a top four seed and home court advantage for the first round. But they still have an outside chance at finishing first (2.5 games out) so roll with them Tuesday. The Bucks are 10-1 ATS their last 11 games in Chicago.

The Wild lost to the Predators in March but since then they have been on a roll, winning 9 of 10 and holding opponents to under 2 goals average in those victories. This stretch included victories vs heavyweights, Carolina, Washington and Colorado. Their sole loss was to Pittsburgh in OT. They made very wise pickups at the trade deadline, and with two solid goal-tenders, are playing playoff-style hockey early.

The Preds have been uneven lately, losing 3 of 5 and beating only a couple of B sides. They have been giving up too many goals, especially to good teams. Saros has played a ton this season, and his save percentage has started to slip lately. The Predators are barely hanging on to a wild card spot and will be motivated, but I am wagering on the Wild. They are playing the right way for success, and even home ice will not rescue Nashville. Take the Wild to win.

It comes as a surprise that the Sabres have a better record then the Hurricanes over the last 10 games. Buffalo has won or hung tough in their last 9 games, even against top teams, but this will be a difficult match-up for them today. The Sabres commonly give up 4 or 5 goals a night, and will face the best defense in the league this evening. The Hurricanes are well-rested, and looking to get back on track for the play-offs. Even through this sub-par stretch the Hurricanes have limited the opposition on offense. Look for the Canes to take advantage of a weak Sabres defense and run up the total. While I’ve had success with the Sabres on the puckline, today is all about the total. It would be a mistake to underestimate the Sabres’ scoring abilities at the moment. They have managed at least 3 goals against just about every top team lately. Look for today’s total to go over.

For the second half of the Miami game and first half against Villanova, Kansas pretty clearly looked like the best team in the country. They outscored those two opponents 87-44 over that 40 minute span. Now you may consider that to be “cherry picking” the best of the Jayhawks. But at no point in this NCAA Tournament have I ever believed they were in real danger of being eliminated.

North Carolina trailed at the half in the Sweet 16 and Final Four. They also were taken to overtime by Baylor after blowing a 25-point lead. The Tar Heels were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament, so few expected them to get this far. This is the fourth time in six games where the Heels are underdogs. I think their run ends Monday. 

Let’s start with an update on the ankle injury to UNC’s Armando Bacot. Coach Hubert Davis has dubbed him “ready to play,” but having your leading scorer and rebounder injured going into the biggest game of the season is not ideal. Bacot also leads the Tar Heels in blocks and field goal percentage.

I expect David McCormack of Kansas to take advantage of Bacot being less than 100 percent. McCormack went for a season-high 25 against Villanova. Also, don’t forget about Ochai Agbaji, who leads the Jayhawks in scoring. 

Kansas is more experienced on the bench as Bill Self has been here forever and won a National Championship. North Carolina’s Hubert Davis is a rookie coach. The Jayhawks’ top eight scorers have played in a combined 973 games. They were built for this. Lay the points. 

Columbus suffers on defense and in the net, but their offense tended to keep them competitive. This hasn’t been the case lately; they’ve lost 6 in a row and are well under their season’s average 3.2 goals per game. Merzlikins has been a workhorse for the Jackets, but has been overworked and under-protected. Columbus is better at home but they face the Bruins today, who are a tough match-up in any location.

The 8-2 Bruins have stifled most opponents lately, allowing just under 2 goals against in those 8 wins. They’ve also been flashing some offense, scoring 23 goals in their last 4 games. The Bruins are poised to move up from a wild card spot while Columbus is probably just wishing for an end to the bleeding. The Bruins won’t be doing Columbus any favors today. Take Boston on the puck-line – 1 ½.

Talk about a shocking performance. The Clippers beat Milwaukee 153-119 on Friday night. Now both teams elected to rest starters in that game. But that can’t take away from the fact that it was the most points scored EVER in a regular season game in Clippers’ history. 

The Clippers are going to be in the play-in tournament, probably as the 8-seed, which means they’ll only have to win once to make the playoffs. That means the Pelicans, currently 9th, will have to win two games in the play-tournament. It would take New Orleans winning all of its remaining games - and the Clippers losing all of theirs - for the teams to trade spaces.

The Pelicans have won the last five meetings vs. the Clippers, including all three this season. I understand that coupled with the fact NO is still looking to guarantee its spot in the play in tournament makes them seem like the more attractive side here. But I still like the Clippers.

New Orleans is just 16-22 on the road and was lucky to come from behind to beat the Lakers on Friday. They came back from 20+ down to beat the Lakers earlier in the week. 

The Clippers have scored at least 121 points in three straight games and I cannot see them being swept in the season series. Paul George is back. Lay the short number.

The Capitals come to this match-up well rested, but their play recent lately does not inspire confidence. They have lost 3 of 5, with most wins requiring OT. 9 of 10 games have gone over. They are playing at home, but have been far more successful on the road this season. Of concern is their goals against average, well above their season’s avg. of late.

Minnesota is off an inspired victory against the Hurricanes, the same team that embarrassed the Caps in their last game. The Wild have continued in their ability to stifle offenses, allowing just 1 goal against the Canes. 7 of their last 8 games have gone under. They’ve won 8 of 9, but are still an underdog today.

The odds suggest a Capitals bounce-back, but I am on the Wild, back to back or no. They are a team that is peaking at the right time, with better goal-tending and very disciplined play. Go Wild today!

The Lakers desperately have to have this game. Five straight losses have them on the outside of the playoff picture. We tried with them Friday in what was a key showdown vs. New Orleans. LeBron James and Anthony Davis returned to the lineup, but it was not enough as the Lakers blew a fourth quarter lead. Time to try again on Sunday.

While the Lakers are just trying to get into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets are trying to preserve their status as a top six team in the West and thus avoid the play-in tournament. A 136-130 loss to Minnesota on Friday, the team chasing them, didn’t help. Utah losing last night did help Denver, who can finish anywhere from 3rd to 7th. 

One more win will all but seal a top six spot for Denver. But LA is going to be more desperate here. I know the Lakers seem difficult to back right now - they’ve lost 15 of 19 - but James and Davis are both back now and that makes this a much better team. Getting points at home is a bonus!

This is a massive revenge game for the Lakers as well. They lost to Denver by 37 back on January 15th in what was their worst loss of the season.

Denver is 1-7 ATS this season after it scored 130 or more points in the last game and 4-10 ATS its last 14 games overall.

The Panthers managed a huge come-back OT victory on Saturday, but still allowed 6 goals against, and are facing an early start in back to back games. As good as they have been this year, they are not as dominant on the road, managing just 4 victories in their last 8 road games.

The Sabres have been my go-to team at the moment, winning more than they lose lately and beating some impressive teams in the process. With an extra day’s rest and a home advantage, I think this potentially fine young team has the brass to win or keep it close on Sunday. Take the Sabres on the puck line + 1 ½.

Going by former match-ups, the Sharks should steal this game, but the Stars are on fire at the moment. With Dallas still in the picture for a wildcard spot, they should be the more inspired team on Saturday. The Stars have won 5 of 6, and other than the games vs. the Ducks, have faced stiff competition. They have been very sharp on the road, and have held opponents to under 3 goals against over this stretch.

The Sharks have lost 3 of 4, and have struggled on offense all season. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games at home. None the less, the Sharks’ role from here until season’s end is spoiler, and Dallas is a team that can really be affected. Every victory is absolutely critical for the Stars at this point. San Jose can still pull out a good effort, and here is an opportunity to show it. I am not sold on a victory for San Jose here, but I think the Sharks will keep this game close. The total is quite low. Take the Over.

UNC is 4-0 ATS in the tournament and going back to the last couple weeks of the regular season, they are on a 10-1 SU run in their previous 11 games, also going 9-2 against the spread. Duke has covered its last three games after a last second layup by Cal State Fullerton handed the Blue Devils a 1.5 point ATS loss in Round 1. 

Both teams were eliminated by Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The only other loss for Duke, over their last 15 games, came to North Carolina, in Coach K’s home finale. The final score of that game was 94-81. That was after Duke won the first meeting, 87-67, in Chapel Hill. To say the Blue Devils will be highly motivated to avenge that last loss UNC is putting it mildly.

Duke was clearly the best team in the ACC this year. North Carolina has had a nice run, but it is worth mentioning that they were an 8-seed coming into the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, they are better than how they were seeded, but being an 8-seed shows they are far from the most consistent team.

The Blue Devils are just the better team here. North Carolina could have lost to either Baylor or UCLA, before they got lucky and faced a 15-seed in the Elite 8. I’ve never sensed Duke being in any danger in their tourney run.

While most teams have struggled to find their shot in the NCAA Tournament, Duke hasn’t. The Blue Devils have made over 50% of their field goal attempts and scored at least 78 points in every game.

Two teams that could end up meeting in the play-in round face off on Saturday in a key Eastern Conference clash. Both Brooklyn and Atlanta are 40-37, part of a three-way tie with Charlotte for eighth place. All three teams want to finish 8th as it would mean they only need to win one game, rather than two, in the play-in round.

Atlanta, despite being the hotter team (four wins in a row) and at home, is the slight underdog tonight. That’s because Brooklyn still carries a lot of weight with the oddsmakers. I thought the Nets should have won at home over Milwaukee on Thursday. (They ended up losing in overtime, on some last second free throws, after blowing a seven-point lead with two minutes left in regulation). 

Brooklyn has been a better team on the road this season. Some of that has to do with Kyrie Irving just recently being cleared to play at home. But recently they went on the road and easily beat Miami. The Nets are 23-16 in road games in 2021-22.

Atlanta has scored 131 or more points in each of its last three games. That’s pretty impressive. But I don’t think they can keep that up and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an off-shooting night from the Hawks here. Trae Young did leave the last game with a groin injury, though he did return. Could there be any ill-effect tonight?

Before the current four-game win streak, Atlanta was just 1-12 ATS when coming off a SU win. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS the last six times it has been a road favorite. The Nets are the better team here.

Villanova is 4-0 ATS in the tournament. Kansas is 2-2 ATS. Villanova has not trailed at halftime in any game. Kansas, the lone 1-seed left, trailed at the half against Miami in the Elite 8, before putting the clamps down in the second half. In three of their four games thus far, the Jayhawks have allowed less than 20 points in one half. Don’t see that happening against Villanova. 

There’s a major edge at the charity stripe for ‘Nova as they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in College Basketball history. Kansas shoots it at just 72% from the FT line.

Jay Wright has fared very well in NCAA Tournament games during his time at Villanova, covering 21 of the last 27. Kansas is 7-20 ATS the previous 27 times they’ve been off a straight-up win by 20 or more points. 

Villanova is 8-3 ATS in neutral site games this season. Kansas is just 7-5 ATS. Villanova is also 27-17-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 10 seasons. They have the best overall ATS record in the country during that time.

The last five head to head meetings between Villanova and Kansas have seen ‘Nova cover all five times. They also won four of the games outright, including a National Semifinal in 2018 by a score of 95-78. These teams seem pretty even to me, and even with the Moore injury, I will be taking the points.

This game carries importance for both teams, but more so for Philadelphia, who has lost three straight games and thus fallen behind the other three teams in the chase for the top spot in the East. Losing to Detroit Friday was inexcusable. 

Charlotte is guaranteed to be in the play-in round, but would like to finish eighth so that they’d only need to win one game rather than two. With eight wins in their last 10 games, the Hornets are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. I still have concerns with a team that is last in the East in scoring defense.

The Hornets give up 116.4 points per game on the road. I think they’ll struggle here to stop Joel Embiid and James Harden. Embiid carried the offense vs. the Pistons, but got no help. Harden shot 4 of 15 and had only 18 points. The bench contributed very little, just eight points in fact.

Harden will shoot better and, at home, the bench will play better this afternoon. Speaking of the start time, these early ones always seem to favor the home team. 

Just not a believer in Charlotte in this spot. Philadelphia will be hungrier.

So there’s been some movement with the line here as the statuses of LeBron James and Anthony Davis remain “questionable.” The Lakers lost again last night (fourth straight time) and are in danger of not even qualifying for the play-in round. 

It’s the Lakers, Pelicans and Spurs that are battling for the last two play-in spots. One will be left out. The Pelicans are two games up on the other two, so they are in good shape. The Lakers need this win more.

This past Sunday these teams played. New Orleans won 116-108. In that game, which LeBron played in, the Lakers were up 23 in the first half. That was in New Orleans. The Pelicans are 15-22 on the road though, so I have my doubts about them here, LeBron or no LeBron.

New Orleans has only been favored in 20 games all season and just six times on the road! 

Hopefully, James and/or Davis plays tonight. Even if they don’t, my money is on LA. 

For the first time in over two months, the Celtics are on a losing streak. They’ve dropped two in a row, an overtime decision at Toronto then a back and forth game at home to Miami. Oddsmakers like their chances of bouncing back tonight though. The C’s are huge favorites at home against also-ran Indiana.

Perhaps the reason that Boston has lost two in a row has something to do with the loss of Robert Williams? He is their best defender. Yet in the two losses, the Celtics only gave up 106 points in regulation (both games). 

They should have no problem scoring here against an Indiana team that has lost five in a row and given up 125 or more points four straight times. The Pacers’ only had nine players available Wednesday and were eliminated from playoff contention long ago. There’s no reason to think they’ll try at the defensive end tonight, or for the rest of the season.

The Over has hit all four times this year when Indiana is a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. It’s 2-0 when Boston is a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. 

The Pacers can at least score though. They’ve scored 241 points the last two games and had two 38-point quarters in the last one. With Williams out for Boston, this game is going Over. 

Buffalo has been winning more than losing lately and no one has defeated them by more than a goal in 7 games. 6 of those 7 games have gone into overtime. The Sabres have scored 21 goals in 6 games; not bad for a team that has averaged 2.7 goals a game for the season. They have also allowed 22 goals in that time, with the total going over frequently.

The Preds, whose mixed play may have them on the outside looking in as far as play-offs go, have won 2 straight. The over has figured in 8 of 10 games. Other than in a pair of losses to Vegas and LA, the Preds have been a bit of a scoring machine, and should have success with the Sabres’ 26th rated defense. The Predators’ goals against average has been nothing to be proud of lately, and the usually dependable Saros has had some rough outings. I am not counting the Sabres out in this matchup. Look for a wide open game and take the over.

I like Coastal Carolina to at least cover, and probably win, The Basketball Classic. They get this game at home where they’ve already won twice in the tournament - by 24 and 16 points. Things were a lot closer when the Chanticleers had to travel to face South Alabama on Monday. But they still came out ahead 69-68 in overtime and that is not an easy place to win at (South Alabama had just two home losses previously). 

Fresno State has played all of its games at home for The Basketball Classic and I can’t see them replicating Monday when they waxed Southern Utah by 19 points. That game saw the Bulldogs make more than 50% of their threes while the opponent shot terribly (31.1% overall, 20% from three). 

Coastal Carolina is averaging 76.7 points per game at home. They outscore teams by 14.5 PPG here.

Fresno State averages only 63.1 points per game on the road. Their last road win came on February 22nd. It was against a terrible Air Force team. The Bulldogs are the favorites here and I’m not exactly sure why!

Coastal Carolina is at home, will obviously be motivated and getting points. What’s not to like? FSU is 1-4 ATS its last five tries as a favorite.

The Bulls are just looking to stay in the Eastern Conference top six at this point. They’re tied with Toronto for fifth, two games up on seventh place Cleveland. In the West, the Clippers are pretty well “stuck” in eighth, four games ahead of ninth place New Orleans, but 5.5 games back of Minnesota. Finishing 8th is fine as it’ll give LA two shots in the play-in round to make the playoffs. 

The Clippers had lost five in a row before coming back from 25 down to defeat Utah Tuesday night. The Bulls also won on Tuesday, albeit by a much more comfortable margin. The final score in Washington was 107-94.

The last three Clippers games have all gone Over. The last three Bulls games have all gone Under. Something will have to give in that regard tonight.

Paul George is back for LA, which is huge. He scored 34 points in 31 minutes against the Jazz. Chicago has three scorers that can lead the way on any given night: DeRozan, Vucevic and LaVine. 

Neither team impressed me much at the defensive end. The Clippers just allowed Utah to shoot 55%. In four of the five games before that, they gave up at least 120 points. The Bulls have allowed 120 or more six times this month. The Over is 13-5 in their home games this season when the total is 220 or more. Take the Over. 

The Wild have turned a corner after their time on the outs, and are now showing what they are capable of. They have won 7 in a row and are limiting good teams to minimal goals. Defense had been the issue this season, but they are now playing a lower scoring play-off style hockey with great success.

The Penguins have lost 3 of 4, and while the offense exploded for 11 goals against the Red Wings, the Penguins have had a tough time scoring goals against tough teams. Jarry has had some sub-par outings lately, and the defense hasn’t been quite as stifling as one might expect.

While the Penguins are still playing good hockey, the Wild seem inspired, peaking at just the right time. This will be a tough match-up for both clubs, but I’m wagering on the Wild continuing their fine form and taking this game at home. Another big game from the Wild’s uber-hot Talbot?

The Wild are playing play-off style hockey very successfully and have allowed 2 goals or fewer in their last 7 games. This has come at the cost of the offense, with no huge goal-scoring outbursts, but with 7 wins in a row, who is going to argue.

The Penguins did have a huge goal scoring outburst vs the Red Wings, but have had difficulty scoring on good teams. They have also lost 3 of 4, managing only 3 goals in 2 games vs. the Rangers.

This game features the 4th ranked defense (Penguins) vs. a much improved one, with solid goal-tending on each side. The total is high given the match-up. Take the Under today.

In the NBA, taking a double digit favorite on the road is typically not all that wise. When the favorite is a team that is just a game over .500, laying the points in this situation seems very head-scratching.

Then you’ve got the matter of Oklahoma City having covered the spread seven straight times. 

The Thunder are short-handed, but that was the case when they took on Portland Monday and OKC won that game, in overtime, 134-131. They scored a season-high in points despite being without their top five scorers.

Atlanta just faced another short-handed team (Indiana) Monday, on the road, and won by only nine. I just don’t know how you can trust the Hawks to beat the oddsmakers’ projection in this one. 

The Hawks are just 12-25 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more points in their last game. The Thunder have the best ATS winning percentage in the entire NBA at 65.8%.  They are 46-24 ATS as underdogs. Grab the points.

The Rangers, playing for the second time in two nights, face the Red Wings in Detroit tonight. They have played well lately, but will likely not start Shesterkin, which does alter the picture somewhat. They have beaten the Penguins (twice), ‘Canes and Lightning in their last 6 games, with three of those victories on the road. Georgiev has not played well overall, but he did shut out Carolina just two starts ago.

The Red Wings have lost 8 of 10, and their last game was another football-esqe total, allowing 11 goals against. They do play better at home, but have the worst defense in the league, and are horribly out-matched by the Rangers on special teams.

The Rangers need this victory, and even a tired Rangers team should be able to handle Detroit. Take advantage of some reasonably favorable odds and take the Rangers to win.

Orlando has long been out of playoff contention and is tied for the worst record in the NBA at 20-56. They’re just playing out the string at this point, which means you should expect little to no defense. At least their games should be entertaining to watch!

Washington is still technically alive for the playoffs, but last night’s loss to the Bulls has them on “life support.” They are six games back with seven to play. The chance of them making up that deficit ranges from slim to none.

But again, I expect this game to be entertaining and high scoring.

The Wizards are 14-4 to the Over this season when at home and the total is 220 points or higher. They didn’t shoot all that well last night, making just 23.1% of their threes, so it should be a bounce back in that regard tonight. They scored 104, 102 and 112 in winning the first three meetings of the season vs. the Magic.

The Magic, who are usually out of contention this time of year, are 30-12 Over the last three seasons when facing a team that has a losing record in the second half of the season. Against Cleveland, they missed 6 of 13 free throws and 27 of 37 three-pointers. It’ll be better shooting tonight. Take the Over.  

I like the Sabres right now and have been riding them successfully for a few games. Losing 4-0, they bounced back for a win last time out, and they’ve won or stayed close in their last 6 matches. Buffalo has been scoring goals in handfuls; 20 in their last 5 games. They have also allowed 19, making them an attractive “over” selection.

The Jets are kinda, sorta, in the race for a wild card spot, and are finally playing closer to their potential. They’ve won 2 in a row and 7 of 10, and have scored 4 or more goals in 3 of 4 games, so should be able to pot a few vs the Sabres. The Jets are not the best road team and have been a very inconsistent team this season. They have some real fire-power, but sometimes just don’t seem to show up. Their usually stand-out goalie, Hellebuyck, has been inconsistent this year, and the Jets’ defense is just middle of the pack. A total of 6 is available, which is on the low side for these two teams. Look for a run and gun style meeting.Take the Over.

Talk about mood swings. The Preds’ last 6 games have all gone over, but they’ve alternated between high-scoring run and gun style victories with lop-sided losses. Not what you need for a team still entertaining play-off dreams. Facing the Senators, this should be a very winnable game, but considering Nashville's defense lately, nothing is certain. On the plus side, the Predators have been a very good home team this year.

The Senators struggle on the road and are off a tough shoot-out loss to the Panthers. It has been a long season for a young team in a rebuild, but they are capable of some surprising offense at times and are healthier than they have been recently. Considering how they showed against Florida, I think they will hold their own against the mercurial Predators. The total is 6 today. This one will go over..

I expect lots of points to be scored in this game. In their first home game with Kyrie Irving, the Nets only managed to score 110 points. Irving had only 16 points, on 6 of 22 shooting. He was 1 of 9 on three point attempts. Kevin Durant was 9 of 24 overall and 3 of 11 on 3PA. The team shot 7 of 34 from three point range. 

I bring all that up, because it’s very reasonable that the Nets will shoot better tonight. Even with the poor shooting from the last game, they’ve still hit 50% from the field over the last five games. There hasn’t been a single game since March 6th where Brooklyn hasn’t scored at least 110 points. Six times they’ve scored 120 or more.

Tonight they face a Pistons team that is allowing 114.7 points on the road. Most teams are not as prolific as the Nets. 

But the fact Brooklyn gives up 111.9 points per game means Detroit has a chance here. From the last game, the Pistons are also due to shoot better from three-point land. They made only 8 of 29 in Sunday’s loss to the Knicks. 

The Over is 6-2 in the Pistons’ previous eight road contests. That’s the way you should play this one.

We’re also down to the “Final Four” in the NIT this week as tonight the two semi finals take place, followed by the Final on Thursday. 

St. Bonaventure has pulled off three consecutive upsets to get to this point. The Bonnies have beaten Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia, a list of victories made all the more impressive by the fact they all came on the road. Over their last five games, the Bonnies have held opponents to an average of 61.5 points.

Xavier’s three NIT wins were all at home and two of them were by a total of six points. Of course, St. Bonaventure’s last two wins have been by a combined three points. The winner here is probably going to be an underdog to the winner of Washington State-Texas A&M. 

This game is being played at Madison Square Garden. Worth talking about is how St. Bonaventure only averages 62.7 points per game, away from home, for the year. They were above that against Colorado and Oklahoma, but only scored 52 vs. Virginia in what was a very low-scoring contest. 

The Bonnies are 4-0 Under the last four times they’ve been favored. Xavier is on a 10-4-1 Under run its last 15 neutral site games as an underdog. Play the Under.

The Kings are in a playoff spot, but will need to play more consistently to maintain it. Playing the Kraken twice in a row at home will help. They traded for an extra defenceman and have Edler returning so have improved their defense, but otherwise stood pat. LA beat the Kraken by a pair of goals on Saturday, and a similar outcome can be expected today. This is a “must win” game for the Kings.

The Kraken had a pair of wins against a pair of bottom feeders, but with all the deadline losses to an already poor team, will have trouble competing against any talented opponent. They struggle to score at the best of times, and have lost major pieces to both offense and defense. As the impact of those losses sinks in, it is unlikely that we see very much success for the Kraken from now until the season’s end.

The Kings are heavily favored, but the price on the puckline is acceptable. This is a good opportunity for the Kings to show some offensive muscle. Look for the Kings to roll over the Kraken for a second time in two outings. Kings to win -1 ½.

The last time the Sabres played in a back to back situation, They knocked off the high-riding Flames 1-0.  Tokarski, who plays in net sporadically but well when called upon, got the shut-out in that game.  The Sabres are a potentially very good and energetic young team, largely unchanged at the deadline, and playing in a very good space at this time..

The Black Hawks surprised LA, and were leading against Vegas, but then things all came apart in the third period.  Look for them to continue on a downward trend after all of the trade deadline changes sink in.  The Black Hawks are flawed on defense and only Fleurie kept them respectable in many games.  The Hawks also are not a particularly good home team, and have very little to play for for the rest of the season.

I've been on the Sabres bandwagon lately, if not to win, then to keep games close.  The Black Hawks are a considerable favorite on Monday.  2nd game in two nights on the road notwithstanding, the "Big Dawg" Sabres will steal this one.  Sabres to win outright..

San Antonio still has a shot, folks. A shot of making the play-in round as they are just one game back of the Lakers, who lost yesterday, for 10th place (the last spot). Having won three straight, the Spurs now have an excellent chance of making it a perfect 4-0 road trip as they take on the Rockets tonight.

Houston has won two in a row, both games in Portland, but has not posted three consecutive victories at any time this season, outside of a stunning seven-game win streak in late November/early December. In fact, this is just the second time in 2022 that they have won back to back games.

Before beating Portland two straight times, the Rockets had the worst record in the NBA. The Spurs have won the last two meetings by a combined 55 points. 

Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray had an “off” shooting night in the last game, but the team still won anyway. I certainly expect Murray to shoot better than 4 of 19 tonight and make a three. (He was 0 for 5 on threes Saturday). Houston gives up a league-worst 117.6 points per game.

This is a game that the Spurs simply MUST have, if they are to make the play-in round. I don’t think it will be close.

We’re down to the semifinals of “The Basketball Classic” with Coastal Carolina taking on South Alabama. Winner here will meet the winner of Southern Utah vs. Fresno State (also played tonight). I’m taking the dog. 

This game is taking place in Mobile, but the home court advantage hasn’t been a big boost to South Alabama so far in this tournament. The previous two games were at home and the Jaguars are 0-2 ATS. They obviously won both, but by a total of only six points. 

Will USA shoot 58.8% again like they did last week vs. USC Upstate? Unlikely. Coastal Carolina has held its opponents to 38.4% shooting overall for the season.

The Chanticleers have been far more dominant than South Alabama has in this tournament. CC’s first two wins have been by 24 and 16 points. Going back to the end of the regular season, this is a team that has won five of its last six games.

These teams are conference rivals, both hailing from the Sun Belt. It is a huge revenge opportunity for the underdog, who lost the only regular season matchup - by three points at home. Coastal has lost three in a row to USA, but all three losses were by six points or less. They will be amped for this opportunity to exact revenge.

Denver is in a dogfight for a top six spot in the West. One thing we can probably count on from them tonight is good shooting. Six of the last eight games have seen them finish higher than 50%. Last time out they did not as they only made 8 of their 31 three point attempts. 

I expect better three-point shooting out of the Nuggets tonight as they take on a Hornets team that gives up an Eastern Conference high 114.4 points per game. Charlotte shot only 42% from the field last night and still won - 119-110 over Brooklyn. My expectation is that they too will shoot better here, compared to the last game.

The Hornets are in the top five in the league in offense, averaging 114.8 points per game. Their games, on average, are the highest scoring in the league this season.

The Nuggets had previously gone Over five straight times before the win over the Thunder on Saturday. 

The Over is 7-1 in the Hornets’ previous eight games against teams sporting a winning record. That’s the way I’m playing this one. 

This is an important game that could determine who gets the home court advantage in a possible first round playoff series. Utah and Dallas are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference, both teams sporting 45-29 records. The Jazz won the first two meetings this season, but the Mavs took the last one. All three times the home team has won.

Both teams are coming off losses. Utah is actually coming off three straight losses. They have not scored more than 106 points in any of those games. It was a 107-101 loss in Charlotte on Friday. This is the Jazz’s fifth straight game on the road, all played in the last eight days.

While Utah was losing in Charlotte, Dallas suffered a critical loss in Minnesota, 116-95. Not only did that loss prevent the Mavs from overtaking the Jazz, but it moved them closer to 7th place, which would mean the play-in round. They are now only 2.5 games ahead of the Timberwolves.

The good news for Dallas is that they are 15-3 ATS this season following a game where they did not score 100 points. I can’t see them shooting as poorly tonight as they did on Friday when they made only 38 percent from the field, including 10 of 43 three-point shooting. Defense should improve tonight as well. The Mavs are giving up just 102.1 points per game at home, best in the league.

The Jazz have not fared well as underdogs, going just 3-7 ATS when getting points. That includes a 28-point loss in Boston earlier in the week. The offensive downturn coincides with the absence of Bojan Bogdanovic, who is set to miss his eighth straight game tonight. Lay the short number with the home team here.

St. Peter’s has stunned the College Basketball world by becoming the first 15 seed to make the Elite 8. In addition to upsets over Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue, the Peacocks have covered the spread in 10 straight games. They have not lost a game since Feb 20th at Siena. 

Somewhat lost in the Peacocks’ miracle run is the team they’re facing in the Regional Final is an 8-seed. No one expected North Carolina to get here either, even though the Tar Heels have now won 13 of their last 15 games.

With Duke advancing to the Final Four yesterday, EVERYONE is going to be anticipating a Duke-UNC rematch next weekend (UNC handed Duke a humbling loss in Coach K’s final home game).

But St. Peter’s has the better defensive efficiency rating in this matchup. They are top 25 nationally in that regard, which tells me that this run is not all smoke and mirrors. This is a team that just held Purdue, who had the country’s most efficient offense, to 64 points. 

The Peacocks may not win, but I’m taking the points. Remember that North Carolina trailed most of the game against UCLA. I don’t see the favorite scoring a ton of points in this matchup.

Kansas is the only 1-seed still standing in this NCAA Tournament. They’ll take on a 10-seed, Miami, in the Elite 8. It’s seemingly a favorable matchup for the Jayhawks, but I’m not confident in laying the points.

I played against Kansas in the Sweet 16, making my Providence my 10* Game of the Month. The Jayhawks shot only 39.3 percent from the floor, but relied on their defense, holding the Friars to 33.8 percent for a 66-61 win. The underdog did cover and that’s all I was looking for.

Expect the shooting to improve - from both Kansas and the opponent - today. Miami is a much bigger offensive threat than anyone that the Jayhawks have faced so far in this tournament. The Hurricanes are in the Top 20 in offensive efficiency, just like Kansas, nationally.

The ‘Canes also relied on outstanding three-point defense in the Sweet 16. They held Iowa State, a poor offensive team to begin with, to 4 of 23. Probably can’t count on doing that to Kansas. 

Kansas is coming off its second lowest-scoring game since January. So they are due for a bounce back offensively. Miami is 7-3 Over its last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Take the Over here. 

The Lightning seem to have struck out lately as far as offense goes, and wins for that matter, averaging 2 goals scored or less in their last 4 games, and losing more than they have won in their last 10. Their defense is still on form, as they’ve allowed just 11 goals in 6 games.

Don’t look for the offense to break out today against a tough Islanders side. The Isles lost last night allowing a very rare 6 goals against to the Bruins. Look for them to get back to their tight checking and low scoring style today. Sorokin is likely in net for the Isles today which is good news, but don’t expect much offense today. This is still the league’s 24th ranked offense.

The Islanders have flashed a couple of overs lately, but that was against poor teams. The Lightning have seen a steady diet of unders. Look for a typical effort from these two defense-dominant teams,  both featuring very good goal-tending. Take the under in this match-up.

The Ducks were essentially drawn and quartered at the trade deadline, and are one team who are playing like it. They have lost 8 straight, and are losing in a variety of fashions. It looks like they also could be short-handed tonight. They have not been a good road team, even when playing well.

San Jose is no play-off threat, and has been inconsistent of late, but has had some impressive wins mixed in. Although the situation does not come up that frequently, the Sharks are a very good home favorite, winning eight in a row, and a solid road team when playing anyone. They have a poor history against the Ducks, and this is a perfect situation for pay-back. Take the favored Sharks in tonight’s match-up.

Duke was involved in the lone Sweet 16 game to go Over the total, a 78-73 win over a Texas Tech that rated #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Coach K’s career is still alive and kicking as his Blue Devils put up an impressive 49 points in the second half of that game.

Save for St. Peter’s winning last night, the biggest shocker from the Sweet 16 was Arkansas beating Gonzaga. The Razorbacks went out and beat the #1 team in the country by a score of 74-68 despite being 9.5 point underdogs.

The Hogs have now stayed Under in two straight games after their previous seven all went Over. Their second round game was very low-scoring (beat NMSU 53-48) and featured poor shooting from both teams. Arkansas is not a good three-point shooting team, making only 30.5% of its attempts for the year. 

We know Duke can score and eight of the Blue Devils’ last nine games have gone Over. But can they continue this red-hot shooting we’ve seen from them in this tournament? All three games have seen Coach K’s team make at least 51% of their field goal attempts. Arkansas holds teams to around 40%. 

Duke shot 70% percent from the field against Texas Tech in the second half and made its last eight shots. No way that carries over to tonight. There were only 62 points scored in the first half of that game. Arkansas is shooting only 39.4% overall its last five games and none of those contests have seen more than 146 points scored.

Houston is the favorite in this Regional Final, despite being the lower seed, as they have covered six in a row and just dispatched top seeded Arizona. The Cougars appear to be as strong as any team left in the field. They are top ten in offensive AND defensive efficiency. No other team still standing can say that.

Villanova, like Houston, is 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve beaten Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan, none of whom were seeded higher than seventh (and the 7-seed Ohio State was basically a pick ‘em vs. 10-seed Loyola Chicago in the first round). ‘Nova’s shooting percentages - both overall and from three - have gone down each game.

This will be only the sixth time where the Wildcats are underdogs this year. They are 1-4 (straight up) previously in the role. Houston is one of the top pointspread teams in the entire country at 25-12 ATS, including 9-1 on a neutral court. 

The way Houston dominated Arizona, an elite team, from start to finish cannot be overlooked. All three Houston wins in this tournament have been by double digits. They’ve actually won six straight by double digits. 

Defensively, the Cougars are #1 in the country in FG% defense and I think they are going to do an excellent job at limiting Villanova’s threes. Also, look for Houston to continue to clean up on the offensive glass. They’ve collected 10+ offensive rebounds in five straight games. Villanova has allowed 11+ offensive rebounds in five of the last six games, the lone exception coming against Delaware. Lay the points. 

This is a big game for both teams. New Orleans is tied with the Lakers for the last play-in spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio is two games back and can cut that difference in half with a win tonight.

The Spurs are 2-0 on the current trip, including a 37-point win at Portland in their last games. Before that, they took advantage of Golden State not having Steph Curry and won 110-108. 

In that Portland game, the Spurs made 19 three-pointers, tying a season-high, and 13 of those came in the first half. I do not anticipate them being that prolific from long range here.

The last time these teams played, the Pelicans ran away with a 33-point victory, 124-91. That game took place last week. Not enough has changed in the last eight days to convince me the Spurs can make up the gap. 

New Orleans is coming off a 126-109 win over Chicago Thursday night. Over the last six games, they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. They are also 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 games as a favorite while San Antonio is on a 6-13 ATS run as a dog + 4-12 ATS run off an ATS win. Lay the points here.

A pair of defense-first teams face off on Saturday, in a game that should feature top notch goal-tending as well. Both net-minder s for the Islanders are lights out lately, with the Bruins’ duo impressing as well. The Islanders are back to successfully playing their tight-checking and low-scoring style, and face a Bruins team who’ve won 6 of 7and limited the opposition to 2 goals or less in each victory. Of note, Bergeron is questionable for Saturday’s game. The Bruins are middle of the pack on offense but the Isles are low on the list at 24th. Both teams feature very strong Pks. Look for playoff style hockey, down and dirty in the trenches, and take the under.

analysis coming

In what is surely a sign that the Trail Blazers are at their nadir, tonight they are underdogs - at home - to the Rockets. Having won just two games after the All-Star Break and announcing Damian Lillard’s season is over, there’s little to celebrate in Portland right now. The team just lost by 37 here to San Antonio. But look for “pride” to kick in and them to beat Houston.

The Rockets have the worst record in the NBA and the worst point differential. I don’t believe they should ever be favored on the road. It’s happened only one other time all season. There have been only five games that Houston has been favored in, period. They just lost by 19 at Dallas and have only three wins since the Break.

The teams will also play in Portland tomorrow night. The Blazers have captured seven of the previous eight head to head encounters, including 125-110 at Houston in late January. 

Not only has Houston lost 19 of its last 22 games overall, they are 0-11 L11 road games. And they are favored tonight! I just don’t see why. This is the worst team in the NBA!

"It was a disappointing effort. It was a really embarrassing first half. Give up 81 points, they I think at that time had 21 fast-break points, 30 points in the paint, they had it everywhere. I don't know how many threes they made (it was 13). They had it going every which way. By way of that, it was pretty ugly. "I don't think we prepared for the battle that was going to happen. Our guys looked tired, man. They looked really tired to be honest with you."

Those were the comments of Blazers’ head coach Chauncey Billups after the loss to the Spurs. Again, look for his team to come out with some pride, at home, after suffering such an embarrassing loss. 

The Jets are off a loss, and will play their 2nd game in two nights.  They gave up 5 goals to Ottawa, and will looking for a much different result on Friday.  Winnipeg cannot afford to lose 2 in a row against poor teams, and hope for a wild card spot, so look for extra motivation.  The over has been pretty consistent lately and against  the Blue Jackets is a good bet.  The Jackets have one of the worst defenses in the league, but can still light up  the goal light with considerable frequency.  They also have a history of high totals, so getting Friday's game at 6 is very positive.  Look for lots of offense and take the over in this match-up.

So Providence has proven a lot of its detractors wrong thus far by turning in two strong efforts here in the NCAA Tournament. First they defeated high-flying South Dakota State 66-57. That one was impressive because they held the second highest scoring team in the nation to almost 30 points less than its season average. Then, in the second round, the Friars really put the clamps down in a 79-51 blowout of Richmond.

Now that was a 13 and a 12 seed that Providence faced. Now they face top seeded Kansas. The Jayhawks have beaten Texas Southern (a 16-seed) and Creighton (who finished several games back of Providence in the Big East). So this is also their stiffest test so far in the Big Dance.

Providence has lost only five games this season and only three times by more than five points. That’s a fewer number of overall losses than Kansas. As an underdog, the Friars are 8-1 against the spread. 

Creighton shot well against Kansas, at least from three, where it made 43%. I think Providence is capable of replicating that kind of long-range success. The Friars are 22-1 this season when making at least 30% or better from beyond the arc.

Perfect trend alert: Providence is 8-0 ATS against teams averaging 77 or more points per game. Kansas averages 78.7. I think the Friars will hold the Jayhawks well below their season total, just as they did to South Dakota State and Richmond, both of whom shot under 36 percent. Take the points.

For the second year in a row, we’ve got ourselves a 15-seed in the Sweet 16. Last year was Oral Roberts. This year’s “Cinderella” is St. Peter’s, a team that finished the regular season second in the MAAC (behind Iona). Prior to last year, there had been just one 15-seed ever to make it to a regional semifinal. That was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013. 

The Peacocks have won and covered nine in a row. Their next test is a big one as they face Purdue on Friday. The third-seeded Boilermakers own wins over Yale and Texas so far. They are one of the top offensive teams in the country, ranking second in the country in efficiency and averaging 79.8 points per game. 

St. Peter’s is pretty good defensively, but they will have their chances offensively in this game as well. Purdue owns the second lowest defensive efficiency rating of the Sweet 16. 

For those reasons, I am on the Over in this one. St. Peter’s first two games went Over. The Over is 6-1 in their last seven games as an underdog.

Purdue games average 148.3 points. This is a low total for them. The last game was lower, but they were up against a Texas team that was among the nation’s leaders in scoring defense. That game went Over as the Boilermakers scored 81. 

Watching the Sabres play, I've been impressed at the potential this team has, and it may well be that they are starting to realize some of it right now.  They've won 3 straight, and 5 of 7, beating some big names in the process.  Although saddled with the 26th rated defense for the season, they have given up only 8 goals in those 5 wins.

Meanwhile, the Capitals have lost 2 straight, and 5 of 6 of their previous games were decided by a single goal.  They are a very good road team, but aren't quite getting the goal-tending they were, and there are some significant injuries to consider.  They may very well play well enough to win, but I expect this youthful and exciting Sabres team to keep it close, as they did with the Penguins.  Take the Sabres + 1 1/2.

The Black Hawks won last night, but don't look for any kind of streak developing after losing big time at the trade deadline.  Fleury has kept them in many a game this season.  The goal-tending situation will be one to watch, starting today.

L.A. has played unevely lately, but will be bolsterd by a huge win against the Preds.  Their defense, badly depleted by injuries, received a boost with a key return and acquisition.  The Kings' offense broke out against the Predators.  Here is a second opportunity for some big numbers.  The Black Hawks are on a back-to-back, have struggled against the Kings in the past, and will likely be a very demoralized team.  This is a must win for the Kings.  Take L.A. to win -1 1/2.

I think we’re about to see the end of a legendary coaching career as this should end up being Coach K’s final time on the bench when Duke faces Texas Tech.

Even though they shot 57.1 percent from the field, the Blue Devils’ 85-76 win over Michigan State in the second round was a little misleading, at least when judged on the final score. Duke trailed with under three minutes to go before closing the game on a 13-2 run. The final four points all came at the free throw line, in the last 16 seconds, giving the Blue Devils the cover.

Duke will not be shooting 57% against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are arguably the best defensive team in the country. They just held Duke’s ACC rival Notre Dame to 32.7% shooting in a 59-53 Round 2 victory.

Texas Tech failed to cover that game as they were laying eight at the betting window. Here we do not need to really be concerned with the pointspread. By the way, the Red Raiders are 18-9 ATS this season when faced with a team that has a winning record.

Duke’s defense has been lousy for about the last two months. Over the last six games, the only team that failed to hit 76 against them was first round opponent Cal State Fullerton. Texas Tech scored 97 in its first round game, so they are more than capable of making the Blue Devils pay at the defensive end.

Two teams battling to hold onto their respective playoff positions will meet Thursday in the Big Easy as the Bulls take on the Pelicans. The Bulls have gone cold since the All-Star Break, losing 9 of 12, and as a result their status as a top six team in the East is very much in doubt right now. In the West, The Pelicans are just trying to get into the play-in round, currently occupying the last spot.

The Bulls lost on Tuesday and in doing so gave up 126 points. The team’s defensive efficiency has taken a real hit in the second half of the year. Three times in the last four games Chicago has given up at least 125 points. 

I do think we’ll see them score more than the 98 points they put up in Milwaukee. Given the defensive lapses, it’s odd that the Under is 8-1 in the Bulls' previous nine contests. Similarly, it’s strange that the Pelicans’ last three games have all stayed Under. But those three games were all played on the road.

New Orleans had scored at least 115 in five consecutive games before scoring just 103 in a loss at Charlotte Monday night. The Pelicans fell apart offensively in the fourth quarter (only 19 points) after leading most of the game.

The Pelicans’ leading scorer Brandon Ingram, who has missed the last eight games, might return tonight. That would be the icing on the cake. Regardless, look for this one to go Over, which is something that has happened each of the last five times the Bulls have faced a team with a losing record. 

The first Sweet 16 game - which is between Arkansas and Gonzaga - should be a high scoring affair. These teams are a combined 0-4 ATS in this Tournament, though I’m sure neither cares about it. Gonzaga has actually had to come from behind to defeat both Georgia State and Memphis. Arkansas was in control most of the time vs. Vermont and New Mexico State, but won by a combined nine points. 

The last Arkansas game saw some truly woeful shooting - from both teams. The Razorbacks and NMSU combined to make only nine threes and shot roughly 30% for the game. With Gonzaga involved here, you know there’s going to be a sizable increase in offensive productivity.

The Zags lead the country in scoring at 87.8 points per game. They’ve scored 93 and 82 in the two tournament wins thus far. Routinely, this team will shoot better than 50 percent from the floor.

Arkansas had seen seven straight games go Over the total before facing New Mexico State. During that run, they scored 74 or more points six times. 

With the underdog Razorbacks due for an uptick an offense (after such a poor shooting night vs. NMSU) and favored Gonzaga being its usual self, expect this game to go Over the total.

The Lakers actually got a win Monday as LeBron beat his old team (Cleveland) 131-120, going for 38-11-12. This may not be as good of a spot for LA however, as they are 0-6 against the spread this season off an upset win as an underdog and 2-9 ATS off a win by 10 or more points.

The Lakers need the win though as they are just trying to make it into the play-in round. Currently, they have a three-game lead over 10th place San Antonio. Their opponents for Wednesday, the 76ers, have moved into the top four in the Eastern Conference, surging after the James Harden trade.

With Harden or Joel Embiid, the 76ers just beat the East-leading Heat, 113-106 on Monday. They have not lost back-to-back games since the Harden trade and have won 10 of 14 overall. 

In the “Harden-era,” there had previously been two poor scoring efforts, one without him (⅗ @ Miami) and the other without Embiid (3/20 @ Toronto). Other than those, the Sixers have scored at least 110 points in all but one game since the trade. Both Harden and Embiid are expected to play Wednesday night (listed as probable).

The Lakers’ last three games have all gone Over the total with them averaging 126 PPG but also giving up 123.3 PPG. I expect this to be a high-scoring game as well. The Over is 20-8 this season when the Lakers face a team from the Eastern Conference. Go Over.

Washington State and BYU meet in the NIT Quarterfinals on Wednesday, at Provo. BYU has advanced to this point with consecutive 90+ point performances over Long Beach State (93-72) and Northern Iowa (90-72). Both wins came here at home.

Wazzu has gotten to this point mostly with defense, downing Santa Clara (another WCC team) 63-50 and then winning at SMU (which is not easy to do) 75-63. The Cougars were three-point underdogs for that second game.

BYU has lost only two home games this season. One was obviously to Gonzaga, the other was to San Francisco, another NCAA Tournament team. Earlier I talked about BYU’s recent offensive output. Well, they also are allowing only 63.9 points per game at home.

Washington State has played pretty well recently, but is 0-8 against NCAA Tournament teams. BYU is obviously not a NCAA Tournament team, but they were pretty close to being one; I’d say they were one of the top teams that did not get in. I like them as small home favorites.

As for the Cougars, they are just 2-6 ATS off their last eight straight up wins. That was 1-6 ATS off their last seven before upsetting SMU three days ago. BYU has had one more day to get ready for this game. 

Memphis won’t have Ja Morant on Wednesday and that puts them at a disadvantage in this non-conference showdown versus Brooklyn, who will have Kyrie Irving in its lineup (not to mention Kevin Durant as well). 

The Nets have finally started to put it together, winning six of seven. The lone game they dropped in that stretch was by two points to Dallas in the second night of a back-to-back. In their last game, the Nets beat the Jazz 114-106 and that was short-handed. The team was led by Durant’s 37 points.

With the winning run, Brooklyn is only three games back of a top six spot in the East. Getting into the top six is the goal as it would allow them to avoid the play-in round.

Memphis is second out West, but not having Morant is huge for this contest. I know the team has won without him in the past. But now they’re facing a team that has two of the best players in the league. 

The Nets have been better on the road this season, averaging 115.5 points and going 22-15. A lot of that is due to Irving’s status. With the opposition missing its best player and the Nets surging, it’s appropriate to back the visitors here.

The Sabres at 6-3 are a bit of a conundrum at the moment, beating some tough opponents one game, then not even showing up in the odd match. None the less, this is a young team with real potential. On the nights when they do show up, the Sabres have been very successful at limiting goals against. They face the Penguins, who won in convincing fashion last night, but are in a back-to-back situation tonight. With Jarry playing last night, the Sabres may catch a small break, as De Smith is expected in net.

The Penguins have won 3 straight, and have been very tough to play against, allowing 2 goals or less in 5 of 6 games. They are not the youngest team, so may lose a step tonight, but are still a heavy favorite, possibly too high a favorite for my liking. I think the Sabres, who stood pat at the trade deadline, have a good opportunity tonight, and will bet them on the puck line. Take the Sabres + 1 ½.

The Leafs upgraded their defense, but not their goaltending, so keeping the puck out of the net is still a big issue.  3rd time was not a charm for rookie net-minder Kallgren, and he will very likely be in the net on Wednesday.  The Leafs are the 3rd ranked offense in the league, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, and have seen the total go over in 7 of them.

New Jersey, hot off a huge win vs. the Rangers, is playing in back to back games and on the road on Wednesday.  The Devils also have serious defense and goalie issues, but have a  young, dynamic, Hughes-led offense that can put the puck in the net.  They have had very little luck on the road lately, losing 6 straight, and the last three by identical 6-3 scores, but don't look for them to be shut-out.  Take this one to go over.

The Islanders stood pat at the trade deadline, and have been playing a solid and predictably defensive style of play lately. They take on a confused Senators team, who they handled successfully in February. The Isles have given up just 5 goals in 3 games, and have shown more offense than expected, considering their 2.7 goals-for avg. this season. They are healthy (how often can one say that about a team!), and have won 4 straight games at home.

The Senators added 4 players and lost 3, so it is a good thing there are names on their jerseys. They have been playing particularly poorly of late, losing 4 of 5, and have been outscored 21 -11.

The Islanders are a large and legitimate favorite on Tuesday. Not even considering their poor play, there is a lot of trade deadline dust to settle before this Senators team will play cohesively. Missing Chabot doesn’t help either. Take the Islanders on the puck line.

The Hawks currently hold what the Knicks want; that being the last spot for the NBA’s play-in round. Fortunately for Atlanta, they have a five-game lead over New York, even after losing two of three. That should tell you what kind of a struggle it’s been for the Knicks this season. I like Atlanta here … big. 

These teams developed a bit of a “rivalry” last year with Trae Young’s antics in Madison Square Garden. The Hawks ousted the Knicks from the playoffs and wound up going to the Eastern Conference Finals. As you can tell from looking at the current standings, there’s been some severe regression for both sides.

Pointspread wise, the Knicks have been doing better than the Hawks … lately. New York is 7-2 ATS its previous nine games, Atlanta is 1-8 ATS its L9. But the Knicks have failed to cover two straight and lost three of five, straight up. 

New York is looking for a season sweep here. They’ve beaten Atlanta three times this season, including on Christmas Day when Young was out. But I’m anticipating a much different result on Tuesday with Young in the lineup. 

I look at this matchup in rather simple terms. The Hawks are better than the Knicks and this is a really short number. While they haven’t been covering much of late, Atlanta has won four of its last six games straight up. The revenge angle should work in their favor tonight. I just can’t see them losing for a fourth straight time to a Knicks team that is 11 games under .500. 

Washington finally ended its losing streak, defeating the Lakers on Saturday by a score of 127-119. They had to erase a 16-point deficit to do so, but no one is complaining in the Nation’s capital. The Wizards are still 4.5 games back of the last “play-in” spot in the Eastern Conference and desperately need more wins.

Fortunately for them, they’ll be in Houston Monday night to face a Rockets team that is 17-54 on the year and already eliminated from playoff contention. That 17-54 SU record is the worst in the entire NBA. Houston has lost its last five games, four of them by at least 13 points.

The Wizards will take this game seriously as they actually lost to the Rockets earlier in the year, at home, by a score of 114-111. The Rockets have won only six times since that victory, which was back on January 5th.

Houston has only two wins in its last 20 games. All things considered, this is a very short number to go against them.

The Rockets have given up more than 120 points in six of the last seven games. That’s a problem when you only average 108.9 PPG like they do. Washington put up 127 on the Lakers with Porzingis leading the way with 27. Back the road favorite here.

So this is a second round matchup in the “The Basketball Classic.” USC Upstate won its first round game in upset fashion, defeating Appalachian State on the road, as a 10.5 point underdog. The final score was 80-74. South Alabama beat SE Louisiana 70-68, but could not cover the nine-point spread.

South Alabama has some pretty solid defensive numbers, but I expect this to be a pretty high-scoring game. The Jaguars are overdue for a solid showing at the offensive end. After all, they do average 75.4 points at home. USC Upstate is not any kind of defensive force.

But the underdog Spartans have scored 70 or more in five of their last six games, including each of the last four. It’s going to take plenty of points to outlast them.

South Alabama ranks 140th in defensive efficiency, USC Upstate ranks 303rd. 

USC Upstate also likes to play pretty fast, which means there will be plenty of possessions in this game. They are also 12-4 Over on the road this year as well as 16-5 Over as an underdog. Look for those trends to continue Monday. 

Two teams coming off blowout wins meet in the second round with top seed Arizona facing off with 9-seed TCU.

Of the two, TCU actually won by a larger margin. The Horned Frogs impressively defeated Seton Hall 69-42 as a 1.5 point underdog. Arizona didn’t even cover, despite winning by 17, as they were 21.5 point favorites over Wright State, who was in the “First Four.”

The last six TCU games have all stayed Under the total. However, here they are up against an Arizona team that is not only 6-1 to the Over in its last seven games, but is also third in the country in scoring at 84.6 points per game.

TCU will not hold Arizona to 28.8% shooting like it did to Seton Hall. The Wildcats are shooting 53.5% over their most recent five games. But the top seed probably can’t count on holding the underdog Horned Frogs to 34.8% like it did to Wright State on Friday.

The Over has hit each of the previous six times Arizona has been off an ATS loss (which they are here). TCU is 5-0 Over the previous five times it has been off a game in which it allowed fewer than 50 points. Go with the Over in the final second round matchup of the weekend.

Notre Dame has already had to win twice to get here and may very well be on fumes going into this second round matchup against Texas Tech. That’s problematic as this Red Raiders team is legit, as we saw in their complete dismantling of Montana State on Friday.

I had TT in that one. They won 97-62 as a 15-point favorite. The result was never in doubt with the Red Raiders jumping out to a 18-4 lead less than five minutes in. They wound up shooting 66.7% for the game, the fourth highest percentage ever in the first round, and made 12 of 20 threes.

Notre Dame is one of the weaker teams left in the field. Let’s not forget that it took TWO overtimes to get by Rutgers in the “First Four.” Then the Irish got hot themselves against Alabama, shooting 10 of 16 from three-point land.

But Texas Tech is perhaps the top defensive team in the country. They are 1st in the defensive efficiency rankings over at KenPom. Look for them to shut down Notre Dame in this one. 

Don’t be concerned about the Red Raiders being unable to follow up an impressive offensive display. They are 4-0 ATS off the previous four games where they scored 90 or more points.

The Suns and Kings are likely to engage in a high-scoring shootout on Sunday. Over its last four games, all of which have ended up being wins, the Suns have scored at least 129 points. The Kings only scored 97 in their last game, but have also given up 126 or more in three of their last four contests.

Before getting held to 97 by Boston, who is arguably the top defensive team in the NBA, Sacramento had scored 112 or higher in six of seven games. So expect them to shoot better tonight than they did on Friday. The thing is, the Kings were on pace for another high-scoring effort, but only managed 18 points in the fourth quarter.

Both teams average more than 110 PPG on the season. Phoenix is top four in the league at 114.7 PPG. Sacramento is second to last in points allowed, giving up 115.7 PPG.

So this should be another big offensive game for the Western Conference leading Suns, who are just three wins away from clinching home court advantage for the playoffs. They won’t take it easy on the Kings and those last four wins have come by an average of 22.3 points.

The Over is 21-8 in the Kings last 29 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Carolina has lost 3 games straight on the road, and has averaged just 2.5 goals-for a game in their last 10. Much is expected of this team, and it is about time they turned things around offensively. Andersen won’t have been happy losing to the Leafs, so look for a better performance from him tonight. The ‘Canes are a dominant team at home, with an extra day of rest, and have the best defense in the league.

While the Rangers also rate highly on defense, much of that comes on the back of their star goalie Shesterkin, who will not start tonight. The Rangers are not as good on the road, and with Georgiev in net, and in a back to back situation, they will struggle against the Hurricanes.

The odds-makers agree with me, as the Canes are a tall favorite. Here is a dawg that will have it’s day today. Take the Hurricanes to win -1 ½.

The Capitals have re-found their form, and frequently the back of the net, winning 7 of their last 8 with a 4.5 goals-for avg. They wiped the floor with Dallas last time out, winning with a shutout. The Capitals are relatively safe for a wild card spot, but can’t waste any opportunity to move up.

The Stars were just bounced out of a wild card spot, and will have to up their game if they want to regain it. They’ve lost 4 of 5 games, scoring 2 or under goals in three of those losses. Oettinger played in Saturday’s loss to the Islanders, so the Stars will be forced to play a recent call-up in net on Sunday. They are a poor road team and will face a very good home team in a back to back situation. The Capitals are favored but not as much as one would expect. Take the Capitals to win outright.

Illinois barely survived Chattanooga in the first round, not taking the lead until the final minute. But that’s when you want to have the lead and the Illini prevailed 54-53. It was certainly not an impressive performance and I think the Fighting Illini are in trouble here against 5-seed Houston.

Houston made it to the Final Four last season. The Cougars began this year’s tourney run with a dominant 82-68 win over UAB. It’s now eight covers in the last nine games for Kelvin Sampson’s team, who is 30-5 on the year. 

Illinois was outrebounded by Chattanooga. That’s a terrible sign. So are the Illini’s offensive numbers from the L4 games, a stretch in which they’ve gone 0-4 against the spread. Three of those games have seen the team score 63 points or less and shoot worse than 40 percent from the field. They made only 3 of 17 three-point attempts against Chattanooga.

Houston averages 76 points per game while giving up an average of just 59.1. They are one of only five teams in the country to rank in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is a championship contender.

Illinois has failed to cover each of the last six times they’ve been off a straight up win. Lay the points.

So, after a sluggish start, Gonzaga was finally able to pull away from 16-seed Georgia State in the first round. The Zags used a 24-1 second half run to put the game away, but still ended up not covering the large 22.5-point spread. (They won 93-72). Once again, in the second round vs. Memphis, I think the spread will prove to be too large.

Memphis has been on a real roll down the stretch. They beat Boise State in the first round 64-53 and covered the three-point spread. The Tigers took control of that game pretty early and never were really threatened after that. They have now won 13 of their last 15 games.

I don’t think Gonzaga can count on the wide shooting discrepancy that they enjoyed vs. Georgia State. They shot 50.7%, which isn’t that atypical, but Georgia State shot just 32.9%. Memphis actually did a better job defensively against Boise State, holding the Broncos to 31.5%. 

The defensive improvement we’ve seen from the Tigers, since Penny Hardaway’s infamous press conference in late January, has been substantial. The most points they’ve given up in a game since February is 74. Only three times have they allowed more than 70.

The Tigers are 16-5 ATS their previous 21 tries as an underdog. Grab the points here.

Michigan won by double digits on Thursday, but it was by no means easy against Colorado State. The Wolverines got off to a poor start and trailed in the first half by as many as 12 points. But a stunning turnaround after halftime resulted in a 75-63 win for the Maize and Blue.

The Wolverines probably can’t count on their second round opponent shooting 35.4% from the field. That’s what Colorado State did and it was even worse in the second half when the Rams scored just 27 points.

Tennessee shot 60% and scored 88 points in its first round matchup with Longwood. Now Michigan won’t be as overmatched as Longwood was, but the Wolverines usually aren’t that great defensively either. They are in fact just 77th in the country in defensive efficiency.

The Volunteers streak of holding teams under 40% shooting probably comes to an end here, however. Nine of their last ten opponents have shot 39.6% or less. Michigan shoots well, is 19th in offensive efficiency, and will make more threes here than they did in the first round game (4). 

The Over has cashed the previous four times that Michigan has been an underdog. Make it five straight.

These are two of the hotter teams in the league right now. Milwaukee comes in having taken eight of their previous nine games and has covered the spread in seven of them. Minnesota has been even more profitable with a 9-1 SU and ATS run. 

Wednesday night, the Bucks couldn’t miss as they shot 51.4 percent from three on their way to a 135-126 win over Sacramento. Offense has not been in short supply for the defending champs during this winning run of theirs as they have averaged 124.6 points per game this month, getting held under 110 just once.

Minnesota is probably not the team that can slow down the Bucks. While the Timberwolves’ defensive numbers are better at home, they’ve still given up an average of 113.4 points over their last five games. 

This is a revenge spot for Milwaukee as they lost at home to the T’wolves, back in October. The final score was 113-108. The Bucks were short-handed going into that game.

No such issues tonight as they look to go to 7-2 ATS their last nine games at Minnesota. Lay the short number.

The Oilers are hot and the Devils are not. There has been very little hospitality for the Devils on their western swing, as they have lost the first two games by identical 6-3 scores. Is it goalie issues or trouble on defense? It is not uncommon for New Jersey to struggle on the road; they are a very ugly 8-20 to date. Now facing the Oilers, it will be interesting to see this very young team’s response. They are not without skill on offense, scoring 3 each against the Canucks and Flames, but that 27th rated defense is a real poke in the eye.

The Oilers have won 4 straight in Edmonton, and are going for the home-town sweep on Saturday. They beat a couple of contenders, then beat up on a pair of under-achievers, scoring 13 goals in those two games. The Oilers’ defense is not that much better than the Devils’. A case in point: Saturday’s starter Koskinen gave up 5 goals against Detroit in his last outing.

It is very likely that the Oilers will outlast the Devils on Saturday, and they are a big favorite. I expect lots of offense on both sides. Take the Over in this match-up.

The breakup of the Black Hawks has begun, as they've lost a real fan favorite and spark plug to the Lightning. We have also likely seen the last of Fleury, who has kept things close for the Hawks in net. Look for Lankinen to start today.

The Wild are still in a play-off spot, but need to gain some consistency or that could change quickly.  This is a great situational game for a much needed win against a demoralized Black Hawks team, who are poor on the road at the best of times. Talbot looks to have improved lately, and the Hawks don't have much in the way of offense anyway. The Wild have an explosive offense, and today will be the day when it expresses itself.  Look for the Wild to 'kick 'em while they are down" and win this one going away.  Take the Wild - 1 1/2 today.

The Clippers are probably safe when it comes to landing in the play-in round, but they have lost five of seven with the only wins coming against the Wizards and Pistons. Things get no easier for them on Friday, having to go to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz.

Utah is a disappointing fourth in the West right now, actually tied with Dallas. They are 12.5 games behind Phoenix for the top spot, so forget about that. They are 4.5 back of Memphis for second and 3.5 back of Golden State, deficits that can be made up. 

In the last game, the Jazz put up 125 in a win over Chicago. Six of their last eight games have stayed Under, but the Jazz continue to score. They’ve averaged 119 over the last five games. That’s even more than their season average of 114, which is top six in the league.

So count on Utah scoring their average on Friday. If so, we won’t need a ton of points from the Clippers to send this one Over the total. LA averages 106.9 points per game, which would be enough if the Jazz also hit their average. 

The last three Clippers-Jazz games have all gone Over. There have been 230, 250 and 227 total points scored in those games. Something similar here? I think so!

Villanova should really smash Delaware here. The Blue Hens made a surprise run through the Colonial Tournament as the 5-seed. Now they are facing the Big East Tournament Champs and one of the best teams in the country. This isn’t exactly a Saturday vs. Northeastern.

‘Nova is 10-1 its last 11 games and that one loss was by two points. They are probably going to make a deep run in this Tournament. Late in the game, when it comes to covering this spread, it is nice that the Wildcats are the #1 team in the country when it comes to making free throws.

Delaware has never won an NCAA Tournament in five previous tries. They are also 0-15 all-time against Villanova. They had lost three straight games entering the CAA Tournament.

Since 2014, Jay Wright’s Wildcats have five wins by 20 or more points as a top two seed in the NCAA Tournament.

On offense, ‘Nova will overwhelm the Delaware. Defensively, the Wildcats allow just 63.1 points per game.