The set-up: The Flames fell 5-3 at home to Nashville, but they got their road trip started off on the right foot with a 4-1 win over the Rangers on Sunday night. But with two nights off before back-to-back home games against Pittsburgh, Washington and then a road game at Toronto, it’s definitely not too difficult to imagine the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” here. For the Habs they had won three straight behind some rejuvenated defensive play and great goaltending, before then falling apart in a 4-3 OT loss at Ottawa. With an extended road trip started on Thursday, I think Montreal returns to form here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Habs have seen the total go “under” the number in 7 of their last 11 after allowing four or more goals in their previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.

The set-up: This sets up great from a situational stand point for Washington in my opinion. The Wizards are coming off back-to-back home losses off Miami and Toronto. Clearly Washington can’t be happy and it’ll be risking life and limb tonight to get off the schneid (especially with a game in Golden State up next!) Portland comes in on the other end of the spectrum, slightly satisfied after back-to-back home victories to open the season, including a 128-119 Opening night victory over LeBron James and the Lakers and then an equally as impressive 121-108 win over the Spurs on Saturday. But with two nights off before an extended Eastern Conference road swing, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a classic letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Portland is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following back-to-back SU/ATS home victories. Grab the points in a much tighter than expected affair!

The set-up: The winner of this game will keep its slim playoff hopes alive, while the loser will officially be eliminated from contention. I think home field advantage will prove to be a big difference maker in this one. Atlanta is just 2-3, but it held on for a 34-29 win over Tampa last weekend, while New York comes in with a 1-5 record.

The teams: The Giants most recently fell 34-13 at home to the Eagles. RB Saquon Barkley was a bright spot with 100 yards rushing and 99 yards receiving. But the tension between WR Odell Beckham Jr. and QB Eli Manning is real, as the coaching staff continues to move away from having their all star pivot from throwing down the field.

The Falcons continue to look horrible defensively, but the offense continues to put up decent numbers and I have a hard time seeing the Giants keeping pace down the stretch. Last week Matt Ryan had 354 yards passing with three TD’s. Overall he has 1,432 passing with 12 TD’s and an INT.

The pick: The good news for the Falcons? They’re only 2.5 games behind the Saints in the NFC South and this is the start of four very “winnable” games for them as well, with three contests against the NFC East and also the Cleveland Browns. Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while ATL is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Lay the points.

The set-up: I think the Jets are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The Blues got off the schneid with an upset win in Toronto on Saturday night, but I believe they’ll stumble again here in this difficult road venue. The win against the Leafs snapped a three-game slide, but with three whole nights off before an extended home stretch, I believe the Blues have a predicable letdown here. Winnipeg lost 5-4 to Edmonton in OT, but it’s since won back-to-back games over the Canucks and Coyotes and with the Leafs coming to town next, I think they’ll come in focused on the task at hand.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is just 2-9 in its last 11 as a road dog in the +150 to +175 range. Lay the price, play on the Jets.

The set-up: This is an important road game for the Flames and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done in the Big Apple on Sunday night. Calgary has tough upcoming games against Montreal, Pittsburgh Washington and Toronto, so taking advantage of this match-up is important. The Flames dropped a 5-3 decision at home to the Predators last time out, but note that they’re 7-2 in their last nine road games when the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135.

The pick: The Rangers on the other hand come in off two exhausting efforts, first winning 3-2 in a shootout at home to the Avs, before then falling 4-3 in OT at Washington most recently. I think New York comes in “gassed” here and I look for the hungry visitors to take advantage.

The set-up: This is a battle of “bottom feeders,” as each team comes in with identical 0-2 records. However, I think this one sets up well for Kevin Love and the home side to finally punch one into the win column (both SU and ATS of course!) The Cavs come in forces here, they have two whole nights off after this before another home game against the Nets. The young Hawks though are feeling the pressure after back-to-back road blowouts, most recently a 131-117 setback to the Grizzlies. But with three nights off before its first home game against Dallas, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine Atlanta getting caught “looking ahead” here as well.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Cavs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as home favorite in the -3 to -9 points range. Lay the points, play on Cleveland.

The set-up: These division rivals are very evenly matched, but I think the Cowboys will stumble in this difficult road venue. Both teams enter with identical 3-3 records.

The teams: Dallas comes in off a 40-7 win over a road-weary Jacksonville team. I’m not going to read too much into the victory though and I do believe regression is imminent here as the team has shown a propensity to struggle away from friendly confines already this season. Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and allowing 17.2.

Washington is averaging 21.2 PPG and it’s allowing 20.9. Last week Alex Smith had 163 yards with two TD’s and no INT’s. I think the veteran pivot will have some opportunities today in front of the home town crowd as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest. Divisional battles are always the most important and they always mean more to the home side. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Patriots look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their epic shootout victory at home over the Chiefs last Sunday night. The Bears recent momentum was stopped in a humbling loss to Miami last week and I believe they’ll bounce back and find a way to defend Soldier Field.

The teams: Tom Brady faced the league’s worst pass defense last week and he shredded it. It was a dream match-up and the legend delivered the goods. But we’ve already seen Brady struggle this year in difficult road venues against capable defenses.

And Khalil Mack and the Bears’ defense at home is an entirely different “animal” than KC. Brady may have looked great last weekend, but what looked horrible for New England was its defense. The unit is lucky that Brady played as well as he did, otherwise the Chiefs would still be undefeated. Suffice it to say, I think that Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky will have his opportunities today.

The pick: The Bears have yet to lose at home this year and I believe that trend continues. And take it for what you will as well, but note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the Bears.

The set-up: The Vikes come in off a 27-12 home win over the Cardinals and I look for the team to carry that momentum over here. New York enters off a 42-34 home victory over Indianapolis, but it now faces one of its most challenging defenses of the season. In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it.

The teams: Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins had 233 passing yards with one TD and one INT last week. So far he has 1,921 passing yards with a sharp 12/3 TD:INT. RB LaTavius Murray had 155 rushing yards in the victory. The defense was tremendous, holding the Cards to just 269 total yards, including only 61 rushing yards.

Jets’ QB Sam Darnold has a 9/7 TD:INT after going for 280 yards and two TD’s last weekend. While the offense looked decent though, note that the defense allowed 428 total yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jets are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game, while the Vikes are 7-3 ATS in their last ten on the road. The Vikes come in with momentum, taking out the Eagles on the road and then the Cards at home. Look for New York to take a predicable step back this week and lay the points.

The set-up: Tampa’s fallen on hard times since starting out 2-0, coming into this one having lost three straight. Cleveland is 2-1 in its last three, but it got destroyed at home by the high-flying Chargers last weekend. I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring “under” between these two hungry teams.

The teams: The Browns offense looked terrible last week against a pretty mediocre Chargers’ defense. Baker Mayfield was picked off twice and he only connected on 47.8 percent of his passes. So far he has a 4/5 TD:INT ratio. Mayfield doesn’t have many standout receivers, so look for Cleveland to try and establish the run here so as to alleviate some of the pressure of their rookie pivot.

The Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith following a 34-29 setback to the Falcons last Sunday. With the shift in management, I believe we’ll see a marked improvement on that side of the ball this weekend.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, I believe the “conditions” are right for a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a wide open “shoot-out.” Play the “under.”

The set-up: I think a trip across the pond does the Titans good after their worst offensive performance in a decade. Conversely, I believe this trip will be detrimental to the Chargers’ recent chemistry. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but Marcus Mariota and the Titans definitely have something to prove this weekend after last Sunday’s performance.

The teams: Despite last week’s 21-0 loss to Baltimore (the Ravens own the leagues’ No. 1 defense), Tennessee is still tied atop the AFC South.

LA comes in complacent in my opinion after winning three straight, most recently a 38-14 victory at Cleveland. Melvin Gordon was a standout with 132 yards rushing and three TD’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 4-0 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses, while LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive SU victories and only 7-9 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite. Grab the points.

The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion, as Toronto has an extremely tough game at home on Friday night against Boston. Washington on the other hand lost at home to the Heat in its Opener 113-112 as a 5.5 points favorite. The Wizards will be extra motivated here after that letdown and they catch a Toronto team tired on the second-game of a back-to-back. As mentioned above, I think this is a great “situational” play.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Washington has gone 7-3 ATS in its last ten following a 1-point loss at home. Play on the Wizards.

The set-up: Shockingly I think, Montreal comes in having won four of its last five. It comes in off a strong 3-2 home win over St. Louis and I think it’ll carry over that momentum here, as the Habs continue to get much better defensive and goaltender play from Carey Price. The Sens have won two straight and they’ve scored nine goals in the process. Ottawa though is also getting excellent defensive play and goaltending, having allowed just two goals in the same span.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Montreal has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten after a two games or more unbeaten streak, while Ottawa has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 13 home games when the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Penn State dropped its second straight in a 21-17 home loss to MSU last Saturday and I think it stumbles again here. The Hoosiers enter off a 42-16 home loss to Iowa this past weekend, their second straight setback. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as the Nittany Lions have take the last four meetings, including a 45-14 home win last September.

The teams: Penn State is averaging 44.2 PPG and it’s allowing 21. QB Trace McSorely has 12,41 passing with with 11 TD’s and two INT’s.

This is an important game for the Hoosiers, who are still bowl hopeful at this point. Indiana is averaging 26.1 PPG and it’s allowing 28.1. QB Peyton Ramsey has 1,624 passing yards with 12 TD’s and seven INT’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Penn State is 0-4 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Indiana is 6-4 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records. I’m banking on the Hoosier catching the Nittany Lions “flat footed” in this one, so grab those points!

The set-up: Cincinnati is undefeated at 6-0, most recently dispatching of Tulane two weeks ago. The Bearcats come in hungry for more out of their break and I think they’ll catch a complacent and tired Temple team “flat footed.” The Owls come in off consecutive wins over East Carolina and Navy.

The teams: Cincinnati has put up 63, 34, 49 and 37 points over its last four games. QB Desmon Ridder has 1,062 passing yards with ten TD’s and two INT’s. Overall the Bearcats are allowing only 13.7 PPG.

Temple enters off the 24-17 win over Navy. Prior to the back-to-back wins, QB Anthony Russo had looked pretty horrible, throwing just one TD pass, while being picks off five times over his first four games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. Look for the well rested visitors to pull away down the stretch.

The set-up: The Predators have played five straight at home and they come in having won four in a row. With a game tomorrow night in Edmonton, I absolutely feel that this sets up as a letdown spot for the Predators. The Flames on the other hand come in hot, as they’ve won four of their last five, including a convincing 5-2 win at home over high-powered Boston last time out. And with a tough two-game Eastern Swing in the Big Apple and against the Habs starting on Saturday, there’s no doubt this is an important game for the home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Calgary is 7-2 in its last nine home games when the line in the game is set between -135 and +135. Nashville stumbles and the Flames hot run at home continues. Play on Calgary.

The set-up: With a chance to punch their ticket to the World Series, I look for the Dodgers to find a way to get the job done here. LA sends Hyun-Jin Ryu to the hill, while the home side goes with Wade Miley.

The teams: Ryu gave up two runs over 4.1 innings in Game 2 of this series. Ryu posted his career best numbers this year though, with a 1.97 ERA over 15 starts. There’s no reason not to think that Ryu won’t be able to come out here and have another productive outing as well.

Wade Miley went 5.2 scoreless in his Game 2 victory over LA. Over 13 innings faced against LA he’s allowed just one run. For his career though he’s just 4-5 with a 3.55 ERA against the Dodgers.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 in its last nine National League night road games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -135 range. I think Ryu continues his steady season here and helps lift his team to a well earned World Series berth.

The set-up: The Knicks enters off a convincing 126-107 smash job of the hapless Hawks on Opening Night, but, I’m not convinced at all that the Knicks have suddenly “turned a corner” or anything. New York is still without star Kristaps Porzingis and several other key players and its achilles heel has been its play on the road the last few seasons. With a game at home tomorrow night against the Celtics as well, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the Knicks getting caught looking past their opponent tonight. The Nets fell 103-100 in Detroit on Opening night, easily covering with the spread and I think they’re going to build off that performance in their first game in front of the home town crowd.

The pick: Both teams improved in the off-season, but note I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. I’m on the Nets.

The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Charlotte played from behind all night in its heart-breaking 113-112 home loss to Milwaukee. Kemba Walker scored 41 points for the Hornets in that one but it still wasn’t enough. And with a game at Miami tomorrow night, the Hornets are also get caught “looking ahead” in my opinion as well. Orlando fought tooth and nail all night against the Heat in its opener and managed to pull away for the hard-fought 104-101 victory in the end. But with a game tomorrow night at Philly, I think the Magic also get caught looking ahead here as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after allowing 112 points or more in its previous outing. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Two struggling teams collide on a short week on Thursday night and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Denver comes in having lost four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams, while Arizona fell 27-17 in Minnesota to fall to 1-5.

The teams: The Broncos gave up 323 yards on the ground in a 34-16 win in New York two weeks ago, only to then allow 270 yards to the Rams on the ground in last Sunday’s setback. QB Case Keenum is nothing more than a clock manager, as the run game, special teams and defense continue to lead the way.

Arizona’s offense has been terrible this year, averaging only 13.6 PPG at home so far. Last week the Cardinals looked decent for the first half, before then falling apart in the second.

The pick: This one isn’t going to be decided by the QB’s. It’s going to be decided in the trenches, by the defenses and by special teams play. Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 against clubs with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Here’s a great situational play. The Heat are in Orlando on Wednesday night and I think they’ll stumble in the second game of the back-to-back. Miami is an older team, which already is dealing with a few injury issues. Washington on the other hand will be opening up its season at home after a disappointing campaign last year. This is a big game for Washington to say the least.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Heat are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the second game of a back to back in which they are an underdog in the -2.5 to -9.5 points range. Lay the points.

The set-up: These teams last met in 2016 and Arkansas State won 31-16 on the road. Georgia State comes in “rusty” here in my opinion after its bye week, before that it got blown out 37-20 by Troy. Arkansas State looks to take advantage and to get back on track after a 35-9 home loss to App State last Tuesday.

The teams: Georgia State is averaging 22.3 PPG and it’s allowing 34.2. Two weeks ago the Trojans rolled up 554 yards of offense. QB Dan Ellington has 1,224 yards with five TDs and two INTs.

Arkansas State is averaging 23.5 PPG and it’s allowing 30.2. QB Justice Hansen had a horrible game against App State last week, but he still has 1,538 passing with 11 TDs and five INTs.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Arkansas State is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 conference games and 7-3 ATS in its last ten home games against a team with a losing road record, while Georgia State is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six conference games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 200 rushing yards. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Denver improved dramatically in the off-season in my opinion, while LA definitely took a step backward. The Nuggets were led by big man Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. The addition of Isaiah Thomas will compliment Garry Harris and Jamal Murray well. The Clippers six-year playoff streak came to an end last year. Lou Williams now leads the charge for the Clippers after DeAndre Jordan departed.

The pick: Note that Denver has won three of its last four season openers. Note that Denver is also 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road, while LA is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Grizzlies have something to prove after a disastrous year last season. Memphis is led by Marc Gasol (17.2 points, 8.1 boards and 4.2 assists) and Tyreke Evans (19.4 points, 5.1 boards and 5.1 assists). The Pacers pushed the Cavs to seven games in the first round and they’re led by Victor Oladipo (22.7 points, 8.3 boards, 6.0 assists.)

The pick: The good news for Grizzlies fans is that Mike Conley is back at full strength and I think he’s going to be a big difference maker here. Conley signed a $120 million dollar contract just before getting injured and he and the rest of the Grizz will be out to send an early message. Indiana lost Lance Stephenson and I think the Pacers are going to miss his tough all around play. Look for Memphis to step up and take advantage.

The set-up: Miami is coming off 44 wins and it made it into the playoffs, only to get bounced by Philadelphia in the first round. The Heat didn’t get any younger, re-signing Dwayne Wade for his “Swan Song” season, along with disgruntled big man Hassasn Whiteside. The Heat have an All Star in Goran Dragic, but the guard has been hampered by injury the last few years. Orlando has a new coach in Steve Clifford and he’ll be leaning heavily on Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic this season.

The pick: Vucevic was injured for most of the 2018/19 season, but he’s now at 100% health and ready to go. The Heat can’t say the same with all of their veterans. On Opening Night, I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done here.

The set-up: Brooklyn managed only 28 victories last year. D’Angelo Russell led the way with 15.5 points and 5.2 assists per game, but he only played 48 games. Allen Crabbe was a consistent bright spot as well for the struggling Nets with 13.2 PPG. Detroit was led by Blake Griffin with 19.8 points, 6.6 boards and 6.2 assists per game, while Tobias Harris averaged 18.1 points and 5.1 boards per night.

The pick: Unfortunately for the Nets, both Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll are out with inury for the opener. Detroit though comes in at full strength. Lay the points.

The set-up: This sets up great for a home side blowout. The Rangers are in action on Tuesday night at home in a tough match-up with the Avs. I believe the visitors come in “dog tired” here. Washington on the other hand has been off for four nights and it’ll be eager to get back on track here after back-to-back losses, most recently a 4-2 home loss to the Leafs.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Capitals are 11-4 in their last 15 home games in which they are a favorite in the -250 to -400 range. Lay the 1.5 goals and expect a rout!

The set-up: OKC was knocked out of the first round of the playoffs in the first round last year and many will point to Carmelo Anthony “not fitting in” properly which was the issue. Russell Westbrook and Paul George, along with Dennis Schroder and Nerlens Noel once again make the Thunder a team which most clubs would rather avoid on any given night. But the Warriors come in more stacked than ever this year and I’m fully expecting a healthy and focused two-time Champs to put on a show tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 16-6-1 ATS in the last 23 in this series, while OKC is only 2-9 ATS in its last 11 in this match-up overall. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Play on Golden State.

The set-up: The Celtics knocked the 76ers out of the second round of the playoffs last year. Each team has a lot to play for this season and there’s a very good chance that this is a preview of what will become the Eastern Conference Finals in about seven months. Each team is now 100% healthy. Philadelphia has an elite core that will no doubt dominate this year, but if the 76ers hope to “take the next step,” their bench will have to step up this season. Philly has lost its opener in each of the last four years, so it’ll be eager here as well to break that string of futility. The Celtics are stacked and they welcome back Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving to an already deep and dangerous line-up. I believe the home side will be out to send a statement to the rest of the Eastern Conference tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine home games as a favorite in the -4 to -7 points range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series is all tied up and I expect another hard-fought and spirited affair on Tuesday night. The visitors on the “run line” is the correct call in my opinion though. The Red Sox go with Nate Eovaldi on the mound, while the home side counters with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Eovaldio has a lifetime 3.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP against the Astros to go along with a 1-1 record over five starts.

Keuchel has struggled against Boston whenever he’s faced them, giving up 20 runs off 28 hits over 19.2 innings to go along with an 0-1 record.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 7-2 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I think Keuchel’s struggles in this particular match-up continue.

The set-up: The 49ers are 1-4 and last place in the NFC West. This is a “must win” game for San Francisco if it hopes to compete in the playoffs. Starting QB Jimmy Garraopolo was lost to injury for the season three weeks ago, so it’s “do or die” tonight. The 2-2-1 Packers have looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers will be eager to bounce back in front of the home town crowd.

The teams: San Fran is now led offensively by RB Matt Breida, who is averaging 7.5 yards on 49 carries so far this year. QB CJ Beathard makes his third start after falling 29-27 to the Chargers most recently.

Rodgers comes in sporting an elite 10:1 TD/INT and I have a hard time seeing San Francisco slowing him down tonight after the critics have been quick to jump on him after last week’s sub-par effort.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 25 home games as a favorite of 9 points or more. I’m expecting a wide-open affair, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series is all tied up at 1-1. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side goes with Walker Buehler. After rallying for the 4-3 win in Game 2, I think the Dodgers carry that momentum over here.

The pitchers: Chacin fired five shutout innings against Colorado in Game 3 of the LDS, but in his lone meeting against the Dodgers this year he was shelled for nine runs. Overall Chacin has struggled against the Dodgers, posting a 4.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 145 career innings.

Buehler gave up five runs over five innings in Game 3 of the LDS against the Braves. In his lone start against Milwaukee this year though he gave up one run over seven innings.

The pick: If we look a little closer at Chacin’s numbers we see that he in fact has a very poor 6.13 ERA over his last eight starts against LA. Furthermore, Buehler was downright awesome at home this season, posting a tiny 1.93 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 74.2 frames of work. Lay the price.

The set-up: LA comes in off a 5-1 road loss in Ottawa and I think it’ll have its hands full here with a red hot Leafs team which returns home after a 4-2 road win in Washington.

The pick: The Kings are just 2-3 and the offense is averaging only 2.20 GPG. The defense/goaltending has been decent in allowing only 2.40 GPG, but Toronto is averaging 4.83 GPG, while allowing 3.67. Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings are just 2-6 in their last eight against a team with a winning record just 2-6 in their last eight when playing on one days rest. No upset here. Look for the Leafs to come in focused and to deliver another relatively simple victory in front of the home town crowd.

The set-up: The Falcons have lost three in a row. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the Falcons, as another loss to a divisional foe and a 1-5 record would be too much of a hole for them to climb out of. Tampa started the year on fire, but it went into its “bye week” off two straight losses. And now the Bucs welcome back Jameis Winston under center, a situation which will surely need some time to develop property chemistry. In my opinion, the stage is set for a lop-sided home blowout victory.

The teams: Tampa’s defense though is the main reason why I believe that Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan and company can bounce back today. Last year the Bucs were last in the league in the pass rush, and this season they’re ranked 30th.

Despite the 1-4 record, Ryan continues to put up impressive numbers with 1,601 passing yards so far, ranked 7th overall.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bucs are a terrible 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with losing home records, while the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after two or more SU losses, including a loss to a divisional foe in their most recent. As mentioned off the top, this one has “rout” written all over it. Lay the points.

The set-up: Houston sends 35 year old Justin Verlander to the hill in Game of the ALCS, while Boston turns to 29-year old Chris Sale. It’s “revenge time” for Boston, which was knocked out of last year’s ALDS by the eventual champion Astros.

The pitchers: Verlander gave up two runs over 5.1 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS. Overall he posted a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 214 innings this season. He’s 5-5 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.12 WHIP lifetime against Boston.

Sale gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a 5-4 win over the Yanks in the ALDS. He’s 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP lifetime against the Astros and he was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in the regular season.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Houston is a sub-par 9-12 (-4.2 units) this year already on the road when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while Boston is 88-39 (+32.2 units) against right-handed starters this season. Look for Sale to defend his home field and lay this reasonable price.

The set-up: Florida is 0-2 and this is its final home game before a difficult road trip which sees it in Philadelphia and Washington. The Panthers will be leaving everything they have on the ice tonight to break into the win column and they fortunately catch a Canucks team that comes to town complacent after their upset 4-1 win at Tampa on Thursday. And with a game at Pittsburgh on Monday, followed by a trip to Winnipeg to end its trip, I absolutely expect Vancouver to also get caught “looking ahead” here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Florida is 7-3 in its last ten home games off a loss and as a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. Considering all of the above factors, I have no issues at all in laying this price.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BC is 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with losing records, while Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a loss and only 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. The Eagles are averaging a whopping 223 yards on the ground this year, a number which will increase dramatically after this contest. Lay the points.

The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match-ups all over the field, but especially on the mound. There’s no doubt that this is one of them, as the visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw, while the home side goes with the veteran Gio Gonzalez. I think Gonzaelz can match Kershaw’s effort today, which I in turn ultimately believe swings the value to the home side on the “run line” at this reasonable price.

The pitchers: Kershaw finished 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA. It’s hard to say anything negative about the veteran southpaw, so I won’t even bother.

Gonzalez finished 10-11 with a 4.21 ERA. He struggled down the stretch with the Nationals, but he excelled in his fives starts for the Brewers. Note that Gonzalez is 7-4 with a 3.26 ERA in all “home” situations this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Brewers 7-2 in their last nine National League night home games in which they are an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. Lay the reasonable price and grab the 1.5 runs.

The set-up: Georgia Southern has won two in a row and I look for the Eagles to keep the momentum rolling on Thursday night against the lowly Bobcats (just 1-4.)

The teams: Since falling to Clemson, Georgia Southern has beat Arkansas State and South Alabama (48-13 last weekend.) GSU has scored at least 28 points in its four wins, including at least 34 on three occasions. QB Shai Werts had two rushing TD’s against South Alabama. Overall the Eagles are averaging 30.8 PPG, including th seventh most-rushing yards in the natoin with an average of 276.6 per game.

Texas State has given up at least 35 points in three different games this year and it’s given up more than 40 twice. The Bobcats have issues at QB as well (the team is splitting time between Willie Jones III and Tyler Vitt.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the conference, while Texas State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand-point. The Golden Knights are in Washington to take on the Capitals in re-match of last year’s Stanley Cup Final and will clearly be “gassed” here. The Knights will be using their back-up goaltender and they’ve not looked nearly as explosive this year, clearly suffering from a “hang-over” after last season’s epic debut season. Pittsburgh on the other hand can’t be too happy at 1-2. It beat Washington 7-6 in OT in its Opener, before then falling 5-1 to Montreal two nights later. But the Pens have had four whole nights off to absorb that set-back and prepare for this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is 8-3 in its last 11 home games as a favorite in the -150 to -300 range. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Play on the Pens on the “puck line.”

The set-up: No need to overthink this one either. This one also sets up fantastically from a “situational” stand-point. The Capitals are in action on Wednesday night at home against the Las Vegas Golden Knights and I think they come in “gassed” here. New Jersey has only played one game so far and it destroyed Edmonton 5-2. With three whole nights off to prepare, the “outright” win isn’t out of the question here either obviously.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Jersey is 7-2 in its last nine home games as an underdog in the +105 to +200 range. Play on the Devils on the “money line.”

The set-up: Edmonton’s played one game and it lost 5-2 in New Jersey. The Oilers got off to a terrible start last season and they’ll be risking life and limb today to try and get back to .500. Boston opened with a 7-0 loss to the Capitals, but it’s since reeled off back-to-back victories. With a game at home against rival Detroit on Saturday, I think the home side could be caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Edmonton is 7-2 in its last nine when playing a road game after having two or more nights off. Play on the Oilers on the “puck line.”

The set-up: Nashville is 2-0 to open the year. The Predators beat the Rangers 3-2 in The Big Apple and then the Islanders 4-3 on Long Island. Nashville returns home for the first time this year and i look for it to ride the wave of emotion to a third straight win. The Flames on the other hand lost 5-2 in Vancouver, before then beating the Canucks 7-4 at home two nights later.

The reasoning: Of course, the achilles heel of the Flames over the last decade has been their consistency away from friendly confines. Take it for what you will as well, but Nashville is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. I like Pekka Rinne and the Predators to deliver the goods on Tuesday night. Lay the price.

The set-up: I think the App State has a letdown here after its 52-7 home win over South Alabama. Conversely, it’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the Red Wolves after they fell in a tight 28-21 decision to Georgia Southern in its most recent action.

The teams: I think this does indeed set up as a bit of a “trap” for the Mountaineers after three straight victories. QB Zac Thomas has 896 yards and an 8/3 TD:INT. Overall Appalachian State is averaging 51.8 points per game, while allowing only 17. In my opinion, these numbers are unsustainable and are skewed due to the competition level faced.

Arkansas State is averaging 26.4 PPG and it’s allowing 29.2. QB Justice Hansen was phenomenal in a losing cause last week, going for 376 yards and a TD. Note that he doesn’t have an INT over his last three games and he has 1,329 passing yards and an 11/2 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arkansas Sate is 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while App Sate is 0-5 ATS in its last five against schools with winning records. I’m not calling the outright, but I do expect a very competitive battle. Grab the points.

analysis coming

The set-up: It’s do or die for the underachieving Indians. I like the home side to find a way to get the job done in the elimination situation. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Mike Clevinger.

The pitchers: Keuchel finished 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA. After a shaky first half, Keuchel settled down in the second. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about the crafty southpaw, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Clevinger is so far 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA. In 2017 Clevinger was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA. His peripherals clearly suggest that he’s for real. Clevinger has been “lights out” at home as well by going 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA.

The pick: Note as well that Clevinger has been even better in all “day” games by going 7-2 with a 2.04 ERA. And take it for what you will, but note that the Tribe are 7-2 in their last nine National League day home games in which they’re a favorite in the -105 to -145 range. Play on Cleveland.

The set-up: Detroit enters off a 3-2 OT loss at home to the Blue Jackets, while LA enters off a 3-2 home loss to the Sharks. I don’t think that home ice advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this particular match-up.

The teams: Detroit looked poor in its Opening Night loss, getting outshot 39-20. Last year the Wings were 28th in the league in scoring with 2.59 GPG, while ranked 24th in the league in goals allowed by giving up 3.10 GPG. Jimmy Howard was 7-17 with a 3.13 GAA on the road last year.

LA was ranked 16th in the league in scoring last year with 2.89 GPG, while ranked No. 1 in goals allowed with just 2.46. Goaltender Jon Quick is 17-16 with a 2.29 GAA at home last year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 9-3 in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, while Detroit is only 16-36 in its last 52 when playing on two days rest. The home team is 12-4 the last 16 in this series. Expect that strong trend to continue in this clear mismatch. Lay the price.

The set-up: Both teams won last week, but I think the Texans will find a way to defend their home field. Dallas held on for a 26-24 home win over Detroit, while Houston prevailed 37-34 in OT over the Colts.

The teams: Despite last week’s decent effort, the Cowboys are still averaging only 16.8 PPG. The team’s strength is clearly on the defensive side of the ball as it’s allow only 19.2 PPG. Dak Prescott had 255 yards and two TD’s last week, while Ezekiel Elliot had 152 rushing yards.

Houston QB DeShaun Watson had 375 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Like their counterparts today though, the Texans’ have struggled at times on both sides of the ball.
However I expect Watson to build off his best outing of the year and take advantage of friendly confines.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 37 or more points in its previous contest, while Dallas is just 12-26-1 ATS in its last 39 on field turf. Lay the points.

The set-up: Each team comes in off a high-scoring, hard-fought victory last week and I believe they come in “gassed.” The Raiders held on for a 45-42 OT win over the Browns, while the Chargers held on for a 29-27 home victory over a San Francisco team which was using its back-up QB.

The teams: The Raiders got a big game from Derek Carr last week, but overall the Oakland offense has been inconsistent this year. Marshawn Lynch though has been a pleasant surprise, as he’d go for 130 yards last week and he now has 300 yards total along with three major scores. The defense has been hit or miss this season as well, looking horrible last week. However, I think it does indeed catch a break here facing what I believe to be a tired Chargers side.

LA is averaging 27.8 PPG and it’s allowing 30 PPG. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. The Bolts have never had issues putting points on the board with Philip Rivers under center (he so far has 11 TD’s and two INT’s), but if the team hopes to take “the next step,” clearly its going to have to get things figured out on the defensive side of the ball.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Oakland has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while LA has seen the total go “under” seven of its last ten against clubs with losing records. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Tennessee comes in tired in my opinion after its 26-23 OT win over Philadelphia, while the Bills come in focused and hungry after their humbling 22-0 road loss in Green Bay. Clearly the “outright” isn’t out of the question, but I’m grabbing the points in a game which I envision coming right down to the wire.

The teams: The Titans are averaging only 18.8 PPG, but they’re allowing just 18.2. Last week they had to rally from a 17-3 deficit to knock off the defending champs. QB Marcus Marriota was a stand out with 344 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT. The defense is the strength of the team, but it looked pretty pedestrian last week in allowing 315 passing yards.

The Bills are averaging only 12.5 PPG while allowing 26.5. So far rookie QB Josh Allen has 666 passing yards and a 2/4 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Tennessee is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record, while Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after getting shutout in its previous outing. I think the more “desperate” team takes this one down to the wire. Grab the points.

The set-up: Carolina enters off its bye week and I think it’ll get caught flat-footed here, just enough to allow the desperate Giants to sneak in through the back door.

The teams: New York is averaging 18.2 PPG and it’s struggled on the defensive side of the ball as well. Hence the 1-3 record. RB Saquon Barkley has been a bright spot though, he so far has 453 yards from scrimmage.

Fortunately for the Giants they face a Carolina offense which is averaging just 203.7 yards passing per game. The defense is weak against the run as well, allowing 110 yards per game on 4.93 yards per carry.

The pick: And that doesn’t bode well facing Barkley and this underachieving Giants offense. Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect a battle to the end and grab the points.

The set-up: Jacksonville comes in off a 31-12 home win over the Jets last week, while KC enters off a 27-23 road win over Denver. I think these AFC heavyweights “throw down” on Sunday.

The teams: So far Jacksonville is averaging only 22 points, while allowing just 14. That’s first in the NFL. However, the Jags’ defense is about to face its stiffest test to date. Blake Bortles look great last week and he’s going to benefit in facing this porous Chiefs’ secondary this afternoon.

KC leads the NFL with an average of 36.2 PPG. The Chiefs need to score a lot of points though, as the defense is allowing 28.8 PPG. So far QB Patrick Mahomes has a 14:0 TD/INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Jacksonville has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of its last 16 when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3, while KC has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four off a win against a division rival. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Chip Kelly and UCLA are 0-4 to open the year, most recently falling 38-16 at Colorado last Friday. Washington comes to town off a 44-23 win over BYU and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today.

The teams: Washington comes in complacent in my opinion after four straight victories of the “rocking chair” variety. Last week QB Jake Browning had 277 yards and a TD, while the run game produced 187 yards. The Huskies allow just 11.6 PPG.

UCLA starting QB Wilson Speight was injured in the first game and it’s taken the team some time to adjust. Backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been decent, last week he was 17 of 35 for 138 yards and for the year he has 660 yards, three TD’s and two picks. One bright spot was the play of RB Joshua Kelley, who had 151 yards last week.

The pick: Washington’s weakness on defense? Against the run, allowing 126 YPG (ranked 40th.) I’m banking on the more desperate team keeping this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Maple Leafs survived a scare on Opening Night with a 3-2 OT victory over Montreal and it’s had two whole nights off to prepare for this one. The Leafs will be leaving everything on the line tonight, because tomorrow they embark on a tough five-game road trip starting in Chicago. Ottawa on the other hand comes in off a disheartening 4-3 OT loss to the Blackhawks at home and with a tough game in Boston on Monday, I think the visitors also get caught looking ahead here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 goals and expect a rout.

The set-up: ODU is coming off a 37-35 road loss to ECU last Saturday and I think it’ll stumble here as well after that disheartening setback. FAU is looking to bounce back after a 25-24 loss to MTSU on the road, its second straight setback.

The teams: The Monarchs enter averaging 27.8 PPG and allowing 36. QB Steven Williams is 41 of 81 for 507 yards with two TD’s and two INT’s, while Blake LaRussa has 928 yards with seven TD’s and one INT.

FAU has lost two straight. Overall the Owls are averaging 31.2 PPG and allowing 39.8. QB Chris Robison has 1,077 passing yards with five TD’s so far this year as swell as six INT’s and another 118 rushing yards and a major score. Devin Singletary leads the ground game 459 yards and 12 TD’s already.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ODU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records, while FAU is 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting less then 170 passing yards in its previous contest. FAU destroyed ODU 58-28 on the road last year and I’m expecting a similar sort of blowout here as well. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams are struggling right now, but Man U’s issues are both on and off the field. Despite that I think the Red Devils will finally get off the schneid here with their best effort of the season.

The teams: Man U loss to West Ham last weekend and then drew to a goalless draw with Spain based Valencia in Champions League action this week. Fortunately for Man-U they face a Newcastle side which has not won in seven games.

The pick: Note that this is a revenge game as well for the Red Devils, after Newcastle took the meeting 1-0 last February. Despite all of its issues, Man U is still the better, deeper and more skilled team. Look for these players to finally get back on track with a convincing effort. Lay the price.

The set-up: This is an AAC conference battle from Lincoln Financial Field. ECU comes in off a thrilling 37-35 win over ODU last weekend and I think it’ll have a predictable “letdown” here after moving to .500 with that victory. Temple on the other hand will be looking to take out its frustrations on someone after battling hard and com in yup short in a loss at Boston College last weekend.

The teams: Reid Herring suffered an ankle injury in last week’s win over ODU, but the QB isn’t expected to miss anytime. He’s only competed 54 percent of his passes and he owns a weak 6:5 TD/INT ratio. Overall ECU averages 28.5 PPG.

The Owls are not having any issues scoring points, posting at least 31 in their last three games. Last week they came up short in a 45-35 setback at Boston College though. Ryquell Armstead had 171 yards on 24 carries with four TD’s and I have a hard time seeing this suspect Pirates defensive line slowing down the red hot RB.

The pick: The Owls’ defense catches a break this week. Look for Temple to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and for the Pirates to stumble after its big win last weekend. Lay the points.

The set-up: I absolutely believe that an outright win is possible here, but I’m still going to recommend grabbing the points. BYU has improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball and it does have the “revenge” factor working in its favor today, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough to keep pace with the high-flying Aggies. Last year Utah State won 40-24 at home in this game.

The teams: Utah State is rested, coming into this one off its bye week. The Aggies have won four straight, most recently a 42-32 home victory over Air Force. Overall Utah State is averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing only 23.8. QB Jordan Love has 1,070 yards and a 5/3 TD:INT (although no INT’s in the last two games.)

Despite being smashed 35-7 last week by the No. 11 Huskies, the Cougars still concede just 20.6 PPG, which ranks them 35th in the country. However, the offense is the weak point, a unit which ranks near the bottom of many offensive categories. QB Tanner Mangum has 772 passing yards and 3:2 TD/INT (the offense does focus mainly on the ground game.)

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but note that BYU is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 after posting less than 170 passing yards in their previous game and just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home overall, while Utah State is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five away from friendly confines. The Aggies are well balanced on offense and they’re also well rested. The Utah State defense is improved from last year as well. As mentioned off the top, as good as the Cougars have looked on the defensive side of the ball this year, the offense has been a major disappointment. Grab the points, but don’t be surprised by an outright upset!

The set-up: The Louisville Cardinals are in a “free fall” right now, losers of two straight, most recently against Virginia and FSU. Georgia Tech is just 1-3, but it comes in with some momentum after beating Bowling Green this past weekend.

The teams: Georgia Tech is 3-2 in its last five in having to play on a short week. QB TaQuon Marshall has rushed for at least one TD in all five games this year. So far in total he has seven rushing and two passing TD’s. The Yellow Jackets most recently steamrolled Bowling Green 63-17 this past Saturday and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Tobias Oliver was another standout with 115 yards rushing and two TD’s.

Louisville is struggling to find its No. 1 QB still, as head coach Bobby Petrino has been switching between Malik Cunningham and Jawon Pass. Pass would play the entire game last week in the loss to the Seminoles, going 24 of 45 for 306 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. He also fumbled the ball three times.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but GT is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 when playing with six or less days rest and interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in Weeks 5 through 9, while Louisville is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight October games and only 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Look for the Georgia Tech up-tempo offense to prove be too much for the Cardinals to keep up to. Lay the points.

The set-up: While yesterday’s game stayed “under” in the Brewers’ 3-2 win, I’m expecting more of a “slug-fest” between these hard-hitting clubs on Friday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side turns to Jhoulys Chacin.

The teams: Anderson finished the regular season an unremarkable 7-9 with a 4.55 ERA. Anderson admittedly looked a lot better over September, but I’ll point out that he still owns a poor 5.02 ERA on the road this year.

Chacin finished 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA. Chacin started the tie-breaker against the Cubs and while his team came out on top of that one, I think the quick turn-around here isn’t going to help the veteran. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Chacin, so I won’t even bother trying. It’s just a bad spot in m opinion.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League day road games in which it’s an underdog on the +150 to +160 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Each club sends its ace to the mound. The Tribe hand the ball to Corey Kluber, well the defending champs go with Justin Verlander. I think Verlander and the Astros will find a way to get the job done here.

The teams: Kluber went 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 215 innings of work. He’s had plenty of success on the road (9-4) this season and against the Astros throughout his career, posting a 2.83 ERA and 6-3 record.

Verlander hasn’t fared as well against the Tribe though, holding a 20-24, 4.71 ERA over 52 career starts. This season though he’d finish with a 16-9 record to go along with a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

The pick: Also note that over 22 career postseason appearances, Verlander owns a sharp 3.07 ERA. His counterpart though can’t say the same thing, as last year in the playoffs Kluber was rocked for nine runs off ten hits over two starts vs. the Bronx Bombers. Verlander was 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 36.2 innings in the 2017 playoffs. Also note that the Astros bullpen led the entire league this year with a 3.03 ERA, while the Indians were ranked 25th with a poor 4.60 ERA. Lay the price.

The set-up: It’s Game 1 of the NLDS on Thursday from Chavez Ravine. Atlanta goes with Mike Foltynewicz, while the home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu. I’m predicting no upsets here on Thursday night.

The teams: Foltynewicz finished with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 183 innings. In his only start against the Dodgers this year though he looked bad, giving up four runs (including two dingers), over five innings in a 4-1 loss. In fact, over 11.1 career innings Foltynewicz has given up seven runs against LA.

Over 15 starts Ryu posted a 7-3 records along with a 1.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Ryu has dominated the Braves throughout his career, holding them to six runs over 18.1 innings (2.95 ERA.)

The pick: Ryu has done well in three playoff starts, posting a 2.81 ERA and a 1-0 record over 16 innings. In contrast, this will be Foltynewic’s first playoff start ever. Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 4-1 in its last five home starts by Ryu, while the Braves are just 1-4 in Foltynewicz’s last five starts against teams with winning records. Lay the price, expect a rout.

The set-up: The Pats broke a two-game slide with a 38-7 win over Miami last Sunday, while the Colts came up on the short end of the stick in a 37-34 OT setback at Houston last Sunday. These teams haven’t played since 2015.

The teams: Indianapolis had a 478-466 edge in offense last week, but it just wasn’t to be in the end. QB Andrew Luck so far has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s. Adam Vinatieri continues to be a steady source of production as well, hitting all eight extra points and eight nine field goals with a long of 51.

The Pats smashed the Dolphins last week with a 449-172 yardage advantage. So far QB Tom Brady has an unremarkable 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. RB Sony Michels has 196 yards and a TD.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indianapolis is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including 2-0 ATS this season) and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road (including 2-0 ATS this year), while New England is a horrible 0-4 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. I think Luck will match Brady. Grab the points.

The set-up: Tulsa enter off a listless 31-17 loss to Temple on the road last time out, so a well rested and high-powered Houston Cougars team will look to take advantage. The home side comes in off its bye, but previous tot that it destroyed Texas Southern 70-14.

The teams: The Golden Hurricane average 24 PPG and they allow 28.8. QB Like Skipper has four TD’s and six INT’s, while RB Shamari Brooks is a bright spot with 375 yards rushing and four TD’s.

Houston is averaging 52.2 PPG and it’s conceding 30.5. Defense is the weak point, but the unit catches a break today facing Tulsa’s impotent offense. QB D’Eriq King so far has 1,197 yards passing with 15 TD’s, one INT, to go along with 107 rushing yards and five more TD’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a losing road record, while Tulsa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. When these teams played last year it was Houston that pulled away for the simple 45-17 road victory. Now that the Cougars are playing at home, I’m expecting an even bigger rout. Lay the points.

The set-up: Washington plays at home against Boston in a tough game on Wednesday night. The Penguins were eliminated by the Capitals in the playoffs last year and they’ll look to take advantage of this favorable spot.

The pick: It’s the beginning of the season and because of that, I’ll base my selections on the overall “situation” most often. And there’s no doubt that this one sets up beautifully for Sidney Crosby and the home side. Take it for what you will as well by the Pens are 8-2 in their last ten home games vs. an Eastern Conference team as a favorite in the -140 to -180 range. Play on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: It’s the start of the season, so I mainly base my picks on the overall “situation.” I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry home side on the “puck line.” Boston plays the second game of a back-to-back here after contending with the defending champs on Opening Night.

The pick: The Sabres were bad last year, but they made significant improvement over the previous season. The team should once again make strides this year as well. Buffalo was much better at home than on the road and in a contest which I envision ending late or even in extra time, I’m going to recommend the home team.

analysis soon

The set-up: It’s a pair of teams from the Pacific Division squaring off in Vancouver on Opening Night. Neither team played well last year. Vancouver lost the Sedin twins over the Summer and while that’s definitely a good thing for the team in the long-term, in the short-term it erases 33% of their points getters from last year. Calgary returns its main core of players. The Flames achilles heel over the last decade though and certainly last season was their play on the road, and I think the team will stumble here against Vancouver’s young and hungry group.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Flames are just 25-37 (-17.7 units) against the division the last three years, while Vancouver is 4-1 in its last five as a home dog in the +105 to +125 range. I’m banking on the Canucks finding a way to get the job done on Opening Night at home.

The pick: I think this situation favors these red hot starters. Look for Freeland and Lester to battle deep and for this one to fall “under” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: The Chiefs are 3-0 and feature the most explosive offense in the league. While the defense has been a weak point, KC catches a break this week facing the inconsistent Broncos. I think the Chiefs keep the foot on the gas in Week 4 and pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover.

The teams: KC is seventh in total offense with 398.3 YPG.Denver is 21st in the league in pass defense, allowing 262.7 YPG through the air. The Chiefs already have 15 pass plays that covered at least 20 yards this season. Broncos’ QB Case Keenum has three TD’s and five INT’s and his passing yards have declined each week (last week he was 22 of 34 for 173 yards and an INT in the loss to the Ravens.)

The pick: The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five MNF contests, while Denver is just 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 MNF appearances. Lay the points and expect a rout, play on Kansas City.

The set-up: Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over the Bucs last week, but it’ll still be desperate to avoid a 1-3 start. Baltimore though has struggled on the road over the last few years and after beating the Broncos at home last week, I think it’ll predictably stumble here.

The teams: Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has yet to post a 100 yard game and Baltimore ranks among the worst rushing offenses in the league. QB Joe Flacco continues to look decent one game and horrible the next. Pittsburgh has struggled against the run, but Baltimore’s one-dimensional offense isn’t going to fool the home side I don’t think tonight.

Pittsburgh had/has plenty of off-field drama to contend with with player hold-outs, but it took a big step in the right direction in last weeks convincing victory over Tampa Bay. Big Ben looked sharp under center and I think the pivot carries that momentum over here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. I think Flacco struggles in this difficult venue and I look for Roethlisberger and company to step up on the National stage. Lay the points.

The set-up: Both teams come in at 1-2 and each will be hungry for a victory here. The only difference is, the 49ers lost the services of starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the remainder of the season to injury last week. I think veteran QB Phillip Rivers takes full advantage and puts the pressure on the visitors from start to finish.

The teams: San Fran enters off a 38-27 loss to KC. Not only is Garoppolo out, but so too is defensive specialist Richard Sherman with a quad injury.

LA comes in off a 12 point loss to the Rams. Rivers already has 906 yards, eight TD’s and one INT, while Melvin Gordon has 172 yards and two scores on the ground. WR Keenan Allen has 219 receiving yards and a TD as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but LA is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while San Fran is interestingly just 1-8 ATS in its last nine after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous outing. Look for the Chargers to go straight for the jugular. Lay the points.

The set-up: Miami is 3-0 to open the season and it’ll be looking to kick New England when its down. The Pats enter off a horrible 26-10 road loss to Detroit and I think they’re ripe for the picking here. The outright isn’t out of the question. Note that New England took the first game last season 35-17, before the Fish countered with a 27-20 home win in the second.

The teams: Miami’ QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s in a victory over the Raiders. He now has 687 passing yards and a 7:2 TD/INT. WR Kenny Still had 61 receiving yards last week and overall he has 184. Miami is averaging 25 PPG and it’s allowing 17.3 (good for sixth.)

New England’s season will essentially be over if it falls to 1-3. Miami can smell the blood in the water and will look to take advantage of a Patriots team which is averaging 19 PPG and allowing 25.7 (21st overall).

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Pats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting less than 150 passing yards in their previous game, while the Fish are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU victory. “The Changing Of The Guard” is happening right before our eyes. Get ready for it. But grab the points just in case!