The Big Bad Bruins are 0-4 when playing in Vancouver, and I imagine that bugs them.  The Canucks fans hate the Bruins for age-old reasons, from way back when Vancouver was something other than a laughing stock.  The Canucks play one of their three overwhelmed  fill-in net minders, probably Delia.  The Bruins counter with Ullmark (1.88, .937 SV %), not to mention their 2nd ranked offense and top defense against the league's worst power play and 31st ranked defense.  Take the Bruins on the puck line, at - 1 1/2.  Great odds available..

South Carolina State may have only five wins this season, but I think they are a live dog in this spot, hosting Norfolk State.

Norfolk State, who just had a six-game win streak ended Monday, has two big upcoming games after this. Both are on the road, against Howard and NC Central. Those will determine who finishes first in the MEAC. 

The Spartans may have already been looking ahead when they lost outright at Coppin State Monday. They were 16-point home favorites for that game. 

While 15-3 SU as a favorite this season, Norfolk State is just 8-8 against the spread.

South Carolina State has won its last two home games and they are off a one-point loss at Delaware State. When they lost by 15 at Norfolk State earlier this year, the Bulldogs shot just 40.7% overall. Norfolk State was 53% overall and 53% from three! They won’t shoot as well this time. Take the points. 8*

Not only will I fade Norfolk State on Saturday, I’m taking the team that just upset them on Monday, Coppin State, who is at home here facing MD Eastern Shore.

Coppin State was 0-9 SU/ATS its L9 games before shocking Norfolk State Monday. But I like the idea of grabbing points with them at home, off a win. The Eagles should finally have a bit of confidence here. 

MD East Shore has lost three of four, so it’s not like they have much confidence. They aren’t road favorites very often. They are 5-9 SU on the road, getting outscored by 9.1 points/game this season.

The first meeting between these teams was a 19-point win for MDES. But they shot the lights out at home. On the road, they shoot just 39.3% and average only 62.2 PPG.

The line closed -6.5 in that first meeting, so I’m showing value on the home team getting points in the rematch. 8*

Following back to back double digit losses on the road, I am expecting Baylor to show up in a major way Saturday afternoon when it hosts Texas.

Those back to back losses came at Kansas and Kansas State, and there’s really little shame in losing to two Top 25 teams on the road. Case in point; Texas has dropped four of its last six road games.

This is a revenge game for Baylor as well. They lost 76-71 in Austin on January 30th. But they were without Langston Love and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua in that game, plus they shot just 8 of 26 from three.

This is only the second time all year that Baylor has dropped two in a row. On the previous occasion, they went to West Virginia and won.

Before the loss on 1/30, Baylor had won and covered the last six meetings with Texas. 8*

I like the spot for Fresno State, even without Isaih Moore, in what will be their final conference home game of the season. 

The Bulldogs just beat Air Force on the road, 74-69, as a 2.5-point underdog.

Nevada has won five of six, but their only loss was on the road (at Utah State) and the only other away game in that stretch was a one-point win. All seven Wolf Pack losses this year have come on the road (they are 14-0 in Reno).

The Wolf Pack have done remarkably well as a favorite this year. But they were actually down at the half at home to San Jose State Tuesday.

This is a quick revenge spot for the home dog, who lost by 11 in Reno two weeks ago. Nevada shot very well in that game - 54.5% overall and 50% from three - percentages they will not match here. Take the points. 8*

Miami won the Eastern Conference in 2020 while Milwaukee did it in 2021. This year, both teams enter the second half staring up at last season’s EC Champs, Boston. But, heading into the All-Star Break, nobody was hotter than Milwaukee, who has won 12 straight games to move within a game of the top spot in the Conference. Miami is 7th, 10.5 games back of top.

I expect this to be a lot lower-scoring than when these teams played three weeks ago. The final score was Bucks 123 Heat 115. 

There could be some rust coming out of the ASB for both teams. Miami is averaging only 108.3 points/game this season.

Both teams are top four in the league in defensive efficiency (Milwaukee 3rd, Miami 4th). 

But the real key is Giannis being doubtful. Without him, the Bucks’ offensive efficiency drops way off. Wes Matthews and Pat Connaughton are also both out. Miami also likes to play slow. They are 28th in pace. 10* 

The 6-4 Leafs are tough to beat at home with a superlative 22-6 record.  They'll be home to  the Wild who won against the Blue Jackets last night.  It is the third game in four nights for the Wild.  They've won four straight but do struggle when away, just 1-4 in recent road-work.  The Wild have allowed just 5 goals in that winning streak, but have scored just 10.  That is the story of the Wild this season; limited scoring and limited goals allowed.  Gustavvson is in net for the Wild tomorrow.  He has been super-sharp lately, with a .944 save % since the All-star break.

The Leafs are just as good on defense, but with a much more potent offense.  The Under has been the name of the game when these two teams meet in Toronto and when Minnesota is playing on short rest.  Gustavvson has had such a hot hand that I think this game will go true to form.  Take the Wild and Leafs to go under on Friday.

Old Dominion just upset Southern Miss, 69-64, here at home as a 2-point dog. It was the Monarchs second straight win as a dog after also defeating Appalachian State on the road, 74-63 (+3). 

Now it’s time to host another of the Sun Belt’s best, Marshall, who is tied with Southern Miss for first place coming into the final game of the regular season. I think ODU pulls the upset again. 

Marshall has won five straight, but the line is moving in the other direction as Old Dominion is now 11-4 SU at home where it gives up just 62.4 points/game. 

This is Marshall’s second road game in three days. Defensively, the Thundering Herd are just not very good as they’ve let five of their last six opponents score 77 or more points.

Now Marshall can definitely score, but look for ODU to slow down the tempo. 10*

the Flames knocked off the Coyotes on Wednesday, but are back to back and on the road against the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday.  Just 4-6 L10, and 12-9 on the road, they'll face a Knights team that has won 5 of 6 games since the break.  The Knights were embarrassed by the lowly Black Hawks last time out, so are a fine candidate for a rebound win.  Vegas has held most teams to 2 goals or less lately.  The Flames broke out in the third period against the Coyotes, but have otherwise had trouble holding a lead.  They are 1-6 when playing the third game in four nights and 0-7 when playing in Vegas.  The Knights are healthier lately, and have an edge in all categories other than PK.  You can add the Knights' extra days rest and the Flames lack of success in Vegas, leading me to take the Golden Knights to bounce back at home on Thursday.

This season has turned into a disaster for Ohio State, who has won just once in their last 14 games! Even worse is that the Buckeyes are also 1-13 ATS in this stretch. Their only win came against Iowa, 93-77 here in Columbus back on January 21st. Since then, they are 0-8 SU/ATS. 

But I still like OSU tonight laying a short number at home vs. Penn State, who is just 2-7 on the road. One of those two road wins came last time out against last place Minnesota. I just don’t see the Nittany Lions winning two straight on the road.

Big 10 home favorites are 64-19 SU at home this season. This is the ultimate “buy low” spot on Ohio State after they were humiliated by Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue the L3 games. Two of those were on the road. They are 8-5 SU at home.

Penn State is also just 2-8 SU as an underdog. 

Per KenPom, Ohio State has been the unluckiest team in the country this season and they still have a Top 30 offense. I’m rolling the dice and taking them. 10*

By the numbers, Calgary should beat the Coyotes on Wednesday, but the 4-6 Flames are struggling, barely over .500  on the road, and 0-5 in recent games against sub-par teams.  The Coyotes have been surprisingly good at home and winners of 3 of 4 games.  Arizona has been very competitive in most games lately; 7 of 8 contests have been decided by one goal with 6 going to OT.  The Flames have also had 5 of 6 one goal games.
Both Markstrom and Vejmelka had rough outings in their last appearances but the Coyotes' net-minder has been the steadier of the two, and has held the Coyotes in many games this season. The Flames can't seem to hold a lead.  The Coyotes have beaten both Nashville and the Lightning recently.  I am wagering on them winning or keeping it close on Wednesday.  Take Arizona on the puck line at +1 1/2.

East Tennessee State just can’t cover the number at home. The Buccaneers are 1-11 ATS at home this season, which is the worst home ATS record in the country. 

The last time ETSU played at home, they only managed to beat lowly VMI by four points. Since then, they’ve played two tough road games, losing both by a combined six points. 

Now The Citadel has just one win in its last eight games. But the Bulldogs have remained competitive during that stretch, losing four times by six points or fewer.

This matchup is all about wanting to take the points, no matter who is favored. In this case, ETSU is 2-10 ATS when laying points this season. 

A big revenge spot here for The Citadel, who lost by 22 at home to ETSU earlier in the year. ETSU won’t shoot that well again. As a conference fave, the Bucs are 0-5 ATS with four outright losses. 10* 

The Red Wings lost their last game of a Western swing but won the previous five.  In those games, the Wings outscored their opponents 25 -12.  Still on the road, but with an extra day's rest, they'll play the 3-7 Capitals, who are still missing Ovechkin and have a hefty injury list.  The Capitals have scored just nine goals in their last five games, more than a goal less than their season's average. It appears that the Caps are a poor bet until the Captain is back.

Detroit's net-minder Husso wasn't terrific against the Kraken last time out, but that as not been the norm.  His save % over the last six games is a heady .930. Washington's goalie,  Kuemper, has been very steady this year but did give up 11 goals in his last 3 games.  The Red Wings are a sizable underdog on Tuesday, but doing the math, I am all in on the Wings winning.

Western Michigan just ended a nine-game losing streak on Saturday by upsetting Ball State on the road, 78-68 as 7.5 point underdogs. Truly remarkable is that the Broncos had failed to cover the number in their previous eight games.

So not only has WMU been losing, they’ve generally been getting blown out. But I like them here, getting points, against an Eastern Michigan team that is unaccustomed to being a favorite.

EMU has a 6-21 straight up record, one game worse than WMU. The last time the Eagles were favored was January 21st when they lost here at home to Northern Illinois by 21 points.

In fact, the Eagles are just 1-3 SU and ATS as favorites this season. 

Western Michigan won the first meeting between these teams, 85-79 as 2.5 point favorites in Kalamazoo. They didn’t even shoot that well. EMU actually shot the ball better that day and still lost. The Eagles are just 2-10 SU their last 12 games and make for horrible favorites. Take the points, no matter how many you can get. (Love that this number has been bet UP). 10* 

I’m going to come out and say that I think Kansas State has been a huge overachiever this season. My thinking is the Wildcats will be a good team to fade down the stretch.

Over their last 11 games, K-State is only 5-6 SU. Every time they’ve lost, they’ve been an underdog (as they are here). 

Baylor is off an 87-71 loss at Kansas, but before that the Bears had won and covered four straight, not to mention were 10-1 SU their last 11 games.

Big 12 road favorites are 15-7 this season. Across the country, when two ranked teams face off, the favorite has gone 46-35 ATS this season.

I just simply think Baylor is the better team here. They come in with revenge for a two-point, overtime loss in Waco back on January 7th where they were 7.5 point home favorites. 10*

Gonna fade Kansas here, off their 87-71 beatdown of Baylor over the weekend. That was the fourth straight win and cover by the Jayhawks (also 6-1 SU/ATS L7) and as a result they’re only a short underdog for Big Monday in Fort Worth.

TCU got its best player (Mike Miles) back Saturday against Oklahoma State and delivered a vicious 100-75 beatdown on Oklahoma State. That put an end to a four-game SU/ATS losing streak for the Horned Frogs. All those losses occurred with Miles out of the lineup. 

Miles led the way with 15 points Saturday. Five other TCU players finished in double figures. This is just a much better team with Miles in the lineup.

Kansas knows that as they were crushed 83-60 (in Lawrence!) a Miles-led TCU squad last month. I expect the Jayhawks to play better tonight, but it still won’t be enough to win. 

TCU is 12-3 SU at home this season and 10-5 ATS. Big 12 home favorites have cleaned up in general, going 43-14 SU. Lay the short number. 10* 

The Rangers lost last time out, breaking a seven game win streak.  They are back home on Monday and will have an extra day's rest over the the opposition.  The Rangers are a good home team this season and have really hit their stride lately, especially on offense.

The visiting 5-5 Jets are on a back to back, and are experiencing something of a scoring drought, managing just 6 goals in their last three games.  Both teams are top ten in defense; the Jets have the better penalty kill, but the Rangers have a decided advantage on offense and Power Play.  Even including their solitary 3-2 loss to the Flames, the Jets have averaged just under five goals scored in their last eight games.  The Jets aren't the best road team, and will get no breaks on offense with Shesterkin in net.  Rittich will be in goal for Winnipeg; he's has been solid for the Jets as a back up, but he isn't Hellebuyck.

At home and with better rest, this looks like yet another victory for the Rangers. Take New York to win outright.

Two teams headed in opposite directions here. Washington State has won its last two games, both at home, 56-51 over Washington and 80-62 over Oregon State. The Cougars were favored in both wins, but only covered the last one.

Oregon has lost two straight, one to the same Washington team that Wazzu just beat. The Ducks were 5.5 point favorites in Seattle Thursday, but lost 72-71 in overtime. That was after losing 70-63 at home to UCLA last week.

Coming off an overtime loss is tough, especially when you’re only 3-5 on the road like the Ducks are. We’ve already seen Wazzu take money here and they are now a 1-point favorite. The Cougars are 9-3 straight up in Pullman this season.

This is a revenge game for Washington State. They lost by 14 in Eugene way back in December. 

Wazzu could also be getting some players back Sunday, including Adrame Diongue. 10*

The Blues, now minus their captain and their former top scorer, were roughed up by the Avs last night. They'll travel to Ottawa to meet the 6-2 Senators in a back to back situation.  Losing O'Reilly will be a serious blow, and they also have a couple of key injuries tonight.  St. Louis is three games under .500 as a road team, and have lost their last three straight away games.
The Senators have played well lately but lost last time out.  They also have an exta day's rest.  Ottawa has a slight edge at five on five, but their impressive third ranked Power Play matches up very well against the Blues' 24th rated PK.
St. Louis's net minder Greiss hasn't played in three weeks and gave up five goals to the Coyotes last time out.  The Senators will likely counter with young Sogaard who has  been acceptable since being called up.
Given the fatigue factor and Blues' road woes plus their injuries and trades, I'm wagering on the Sens tonight. Ottawa wins outright.

Not only did both Niagara and Marist each lose on Friday, but they are on losing streaks entering this game. Niagara has lost two straight while Marist has lost three in a row. I expect the road team to get the victory in this one. 

Niagara fell 70-66 at Mount St. Mary’s Friday as a 1-point road dog. That was after losing 72-55 at home to Iona (as an eight-point dog). Iona is the best team in the MAAC. 

But the thing is, the Purple Eagles had won five in a row previous to the back to back losses. Then you have Marist, who has won just once over its last nine games.

The Red Foxes lost to Fairfield 70-61 as 1.5 point dogs Friday right here at home.

Niagara has revenge here for a two-point loss at home (as four-point favorites) last month. They shoot the ball a lot better than Marist does (45% to 40%). Play the better team laying a small number. 8*

At the end of the day, I just don’t believe North Carolina to be very good. The Tar Heels have lost four of their last five games, the most recent one at home to Miami, 80-72 as six-point favorites. 

Now NC State is also off a loss, at Syracuse, 75-72 as two-point underdogs. That was the Wolfpack’s second time losing in the last three games.

But here in Raleigh, NC State is 12-1 straight up and averaging 83.4 points/game. Given that info, this line looks a bit short. Especially considering UNC has lost all four games in which it has been an underdog this season. The Tar Heels are also 1-6 ATS on the road.

Over their last five games, UNC has shot just 40% from the field. They are shooting 30% from three for the full season.

ACC home favorites are 58-15 straight up this season. I expect NC State to win and cover the spread Sunday. 8* 

Tricky spot here for #18 Creighton, who is coming off an OT loss at Providence and now laying points on the road. Sure, the Bluejays may very well win this game, but I do not see them covering the number.

Now St. John’s got absolutely annihilated when they met Creighton earlier in the year. It was a 104-76 loss as a 10.5-point underdog for the Red Storm. But now look at this line by comparison. Sure, the magnitude of the blowout of the first go around needs to be factored in. But this number should not be any higher than -5, IMO.

The Johnnies also come in as winners of two in a row. One of those wins came here at home against Providence, the same team that just knocked off Creighton.

I also should mention how Creighton is a real geographical outlier in the Big East. This leads to a tremendous home court advantage in Omaha for them. But I think the conference road is a challenge, having to constantly go out East. All four conference losses have been on the road.

St. John’s is 11-4 SU at home and plays at the third fastest tempo in the country. They are a tough matchup for the Bluejays here. Take the points. 10* 

Great spot to fade Texas A&M, IMO. We’re getting Missouri, at home, at a very cheap price due to the Tigers getting blown out earlier in the week at Auburn. But that was a very poor matchup for the Tigers. They are 14-2 SU here in Columbia and should bounce back.

Meanwhile, A&M just won and covered for the fourth straight time Wednesday, outlasting Arkansas 62-56 as four-point favorites. The Aggies were not covering most of the way. In fact, they trailed 33-24 at halftime.

A&M shot 50% from three against Arkansas, which will not happen again on the road. Six of the Aggies’ seven losses this season have been away from home. The four-game win streak has seen them win just once on the road and that was against last place LSU.

To my earlier point, A&M shoots just 30% from three when not in College Station.

Missouri puts up 86.3 points/game at home. Remember they went to Tennessee and won last Saturday, hitting 14 threes against the best 3-point defense in College Basketball history. This is a revenge spot for an 18-point loss in College Station last month where Mizzou shot poorly. 10*

The Islanders knocked off the Penguins on Friday but face the big bad Bruins on no days rest on Saturday.  It was the first win for the Islanders in 4 tries.  They have given up 17 goals in 4 games, far more than their usual season's average of 2.7 goals per game.  After a three game losing streak the Bruins seem to be back on track, winning 3 of 4 games and allowing just 6 goals against in that period.  The Bruins have the top defense and PP in the league.  On offense, they far outscore the Islanders, who are 24th in goals for and 26th on the Power Play.
With Sorokin playing on Friday, Varlamov will be in net for the Islanders.  He gave up 4 goals in his last appearance. The Bruins will likely start Ullmark (1.90 GA, .937 Sv%). He has been exceptional this season, and hasn't disappointed lately.  The Islanders have had no success on the road lately, and are at some disadvantage having played on Friday.  Off a 5-0 shutout  against the Preds, I don't think the Bruins will be taking any prisoners again tomorrow night.  Take the Bruins to win on the puck line at -1 1/2

Because both teams have been going Over the total regularly of late, I feel we’re getting a great number here as Abilene Christian takes on Grand Canyon in late night WAC action Friday. Now is the time to play these teams to go Under the total.

Abilene Christian has gone Over in six straight games. But four of those totals were set at less than 140. 

Grand Canyon has gone Over in 11 of its last 12 games, the one exception being last Saturday’s loss out in Seattle. Again though, most of their totals have been set well below this number. In fact, only 2 of the 12 games had a total above 140.0

As we saw in their last game, Abilene Christian can struggle defensively. But - because Thursday’s scheduled game vs. New Mexico State was a forfeit, the Wildcats have had plenty of time to prepare for tonight’s matchup and “get right” defensively.

After losing at Seattle last Saturday, Grand Canyon lost again Wednesday as a 12-point home favorite. I expect them to play more cautiously tonight and by that, I mean “slower.” The Antelopes are already outside the Top 300 in adjusted tempo. 10*

The Rangers have won six straight games, scoring 31 goals while allowing 17.  They continue to play on the road, where they are now 16-5, facing the Oilers on Friday night.  The Oilers who were pressing for 1st in their division, are just 2-3 since the All-star break.  Their league's best offense and Power Play have put up some high numbers, but they have also given up 14 goals in 3 games.  With their recent offensive surge, the Rangers have moved into the top ten teams on offense, but the power surge appears to have come at the expense of more goals allowed than normal. The free-er style sure hasn't affected their winning percentage.  Edmonton is worse than average on defense and a bottom feeder (27th ranked)on the penalty kill. Held to just 2 goals in their last game, look for the Oilers to bounce back on offense.  Shesterkin has under-performed since the All-star break, with an .880 save % in his last three games.  Oilers' net minder Skinner allowed 6 goals in his last time.
We've seen five straight overs for the Rangers, and 5 of 6 for Edmonton.  Definitely a trend here. Take the Over again on Friday.

The race at the top of the MAAC has gotten rather tight with Siena just one game back of both Iona and Rider in the loss column. The surging Saints have won two straight, though they failed to cover the 10-point spread against Marist last time out (won 73-65). I like them here, laying a much shorter number.

While Siena is trending in a positive direction, Quinnipiac has dropped three in a row and just got blown out by last place Canisius 85-65 as a five-point road favorite.

Siena captured the first meeting between these teams, 83-76 as a three-point road dog. They scored 52 points in the second half of that game. Given the trajectory of Quinnipiac’s play at the defensive end (allowing 78 or more points in five of the last seven games), I expect another big offensive showing from Siena here.

After shooting just 40.4% their last five games, well below their season average, Siena is due for positive regression at the offensive end anyway. 

There was some sharp action on Siena overnight before we saw some buyback on Quinnipiac this morning. I feel very comfortable laying this short number with the home team. 10* 

I like Gonzaga to roll here in a major revenge spot against Loyola Marymount.

LMU has wins over both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s this season, so they now have a target on their back when it comes to the top two teams in the WCC. 

Gonzaga was a 16-point favorite when they lost at home to LMU last month. It was an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from the Zags as they went only 4 of 14 from three-point range. That was - by far - their lowest scoring effort in conference play.

Loyola Marymount comes into this rematch having dropped three of four overall, including 71-69 at Santa Clara over the weekend. The lone victory, which was against St. Mary’s, required overtime. They trailed 16-2 in that contest.

The Lions are a good home team, but this number is just too low considering the revenge angle and the fact Gonzaga has won 51 of the previous 55 head to head encounters. 8*

Phoenix returned home after a five-game road trip Wednesday and defeated Sacramento 120-109 as a two-point favorite. I don’t think tonight goes as well for the Suns.

Now the Suns have beaten the Clippers twice out in LA. But this is a different Clippers team now. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in either of those first two meetings while Paul George also sat out once. The Clips’ leading scorers in the losses to the Suns were Morris and Mann.

Phoenix has won 11 of 14 since an injury-induced slide last month. But they’ve been facing a lot of weak competition.

The Clippers just scored 134 on Wednesday night in a win over Golden State. They had a 44-point third quarter. Leonard led the way with 33 points in 34 minutes while George added 20 points and eight assists.

Phoenix is 9-0 SU/ATS in division games, the only team in the league without a division loss. I think that ends here. 10*

The Panthers were embarrassed by the Blues in their last game so look for improved play, especially on defense, against the Capitals tonight.  Washington is without Ovechkin tonight, has a heavy injury list, and hasn't had much recent success vs the Panthers.  The Caps are off a pair of home losses and have managed to score just five goals in their last three games.

It will very likely be Bobrovsky vs Kuemper in net tonight. Bobrovsky has been the hotter of the two lately with a sparkling .951 save % since the All-star break.  The Panthers have a top seven offense but struggle to keep the puck out of the net.  This may not be such an issue in this game.  The Capitals manage to score just 3 goals a game on average this year, and the loss of their captain really hurts.  Take the Panthers to prosper on the road tonight.

This is a high stakes game out in the Horizon League with the two top teams in that conference facing off here. Milwaukee and Youngstown State each come in sporting 12-4 records in conference play. So the winner here will have first place to themselves. 

Milwaukee won the first meeting 88-75. They were four-point home underdogs and shot 54% from the field. YSU certainly didn’t help themselves by going 4 of 21 from three-point range. 

Both teams can certainly score, but considering the stakes, this is a pretty high total. I expect we’ll see some defense tonight. 

I don’t think that this will be a blowout nor do I see both teams scoring 80 points, which is what you’d basically need for this Over to hit.

Youngstown State is off an 81-78 loss at Cleveland State (peeking ahead?). They are 5-0 to the Under the L5 times they’ve been off a game where they did not cover the spread. 10* 

The Rangers were impressive last time out, winning convincingly against Carolina.  That is five straight victories now, with 4 of 5 going over and the Rangers scoring at least four times in each.  The Canucks are just 1-4 since the break and have allowed a monstrous 25 goals in those five games. They managed just a trio of goals in the two games against Detroit, while allowing eleven.  Since the loss of Demko, Vancouver's goal tending has been exceptionally poor, even allowing for a 31st ranked defense and the league's worst PK in front of them.  I do expect something of a bounce back from the Canucks.  They'll face Shesterkin in net, but he has been just average since the break.  It is the offense, with the addition of Tarasenko, that has been overachieving lately.
The Rangers are a powerhouse on the road, going 15-5 to date this season.  The Canucks have been equally bad at home or away.  Offense is not usually the issue for the Canucks.  They managed three goals against the Rangers last time out, but are forever playing from behind.  This is a great situation for the high-octane Rangers offense to run up the score again.  Wednesday's best bet is for the total to go o

Two teams going in totally opposite directions here. Drake has won seven straight while Northern Iowa has lost five straight.

Northern Iowa even lost to Evansville, the worst team in the Missouri Valley. They also lost at Drake by 7, 88-81. The last two games have seen the Panthers go down by 30 points. 

Drake’s last two games have seen them win by 24 and 23. They don’t need to win by nearly that many to cover the spread here.

Over the course of the seven-game win streak, Drake has scored 80 or more five times. Northern Iowa just gave up 80 its last time out. I think it’s important to note that Drake didn’t even shoot all that well in the first meeting (41%) and still put up 88 on UNI.  10*

Tulsa has not been good at home … or really anywhere this season. The Golden Hurricane come into Wednesday night sporting a 5-19 straight up record. Four of those wins have come here at home, but they are just 1-8 ATS at the Donald W Reynolds Center.

Overall, Tulsa has actually been the worst pointspread team in the country this season. They are 3-18-3 ATS in all games! The team’s ONLY win since Christmas came here at home, on January 21st, 81-79 over Tulane.

But I’ll back the Golden Hurricane in this one as a short home dog vs. USF, who has only three wins since Christmas.

The Bulls are 7-1 ATS on the road, but only 2-6 straight up and have yet to be favored in any away game.

Two of USF’s top four scorers missed the last game and they lost by 19. The status of both players (Bryant, Tchewa) remains questionable. 10*

This shapes up to be a pretty important matchup in the Eastern Conference, right before the All-Star Break. Cleveland has the second best point differential in the league, trailing only Boston, but is fourth in the standings and one game behind Philadelphia.

The Cavaliers have won seven in a row. They covered the spread in six of those wins, but then couldn’t quite get the job done for their backers as huge 16-point favorites against San Antonio. They are underdogs here, the first time that’s been the case since a loss at Oklahoma City on 1/27.

You might be surprised to find out that the Cavs are only 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS when listed as the underdog this season.

Philadelphia has revenge coming into this game. They lost by 28 in Cleveland back in November. 

The Sixers are 16-5 ATS this season when playing with revenge. They come into tonight on a three-game win streak and are 12-3 SU L15 games. Cleveland also has a losing record on the road. I expect Philly to win and cover tonight. 10*

These have been two of the coldest teams in the entire of NBA of late. San Antonio has lost 13 in a row and just covered for the first time since January 20th (as a 16-point underdog in Cleveland). Charlotte just won for the first time in February. Prior to that, the Hornets had lost seven in a row.

I expect very little defense to be played Wednesday in this battle of also-rans. 

The Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league.They are giving up an average of 125 points/game on the road while letting the opposition shoot 52 percent from the field. 

Charlotte has given up 117 or more points in six straight games. Their last game, which again was a win, ended up 144-138. They shot 63% overall from the field and made 54% from three.

Even if the Hornets can’t come close to matching those percentages tonight, they will put a bunch of points on the board. The Over is 5-0 this season when they face a team from the Southwest Division. 10*

This may seem like a lot of points to lay with a Villanova team that is just 12-13 straight up on the season. But it is a revenge spot, at home, and the Wildcats are facing a Butler team in a prime letdown situation following an upset of Xavier over the weekend. 

Now healthier, ‘Nova has won two straight. They beat Seton Hall 58-54 over the weekend. That was after crushing DePaul last Wednesday. Justin Moore (missed 20 games) being back is huge for this team.

Butler is coming off two straight two-point victories, one over St. John’s and the other against Xavier. Both of those wins came at home. Previous to that, the Bulldogs had lost five in a row, four of those games being decided by more than 20 points.

As an underdog, Butler has not fared well this season. They are not only 2-12 straight up, but 3-11 against the spread. 

Butler shot 56.5% from the field in the first meeting vs. Villanova, which won’t happen again here. The team shoots just 40.6% for the season away from home. 10* 

Boston is going to be shorthanded for this one, which is why the line has moved so dramatically. I’m still going to lay the points though with red hot Milwaukee, who should roll in this one.

The Bucks have won 10 straight and are 23-5 straight up at home. Early on in the season, the problem was the team was not all that healthy. But now Khris Middleton is back and the Bucks’ offensive efficiency has gone way up.

The Celtics’ projected starting five for this matchup is: Derrick White, Sam Hauser, Grant Williams, Al Horford and Robert Williams. We know Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Danilo Galinari are all out. Additionally, Jayson Tatum is listed as doubtful. Basically, I expect the Celtics to wave the proverbial “white flag” tonight. Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogden are all listed as questionable, by the way.

The Bucks are just 1.5 games back of the Celtics. A win here pulls them even in the loss column. 

Boston has had Milwaukee’s number in the past, going 12-2 ATS L14 meetings including 6-0 here in Milwaukee. This is a chance for the Bucks to exact some revenge for a 21-point loss on Christmas. Fade a clearly shorthanded Celtics squad here. 10*

Kent State has won two in a row since losing to Akron, a result I was on the right side of as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. The Golden Flashes are tied with Toledo atop the conference standings at 10-2. 

Western Michigan, on the other hand, is having a pretty terrible year. The Broncos have lost eight in a row while failing to cover seven straight.

But I think that this is too many points for Kent State to be laying on the road. They’ve lost two of their last three road games and the one win, over Buffalo on Saturday, was by just seven points.

You have to figure we’re going to get WMU’s best effort Tuesday night with one of the high-profile teams in the conference coming to Kalamazoo. 

The Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Take the points here. 10*

The Wizards have won 8 of their last 11 games and tonight visit the wounded Warriors. No Steph Curry has resulted in the home team losing its last two games. 

Thus, I could certainly understand the urge to take the points in this Monday night NBA matchup. But I think the Under is the better call.

This isn’t the same Warriors team without Curry. They were just 12 of 44 from deep in a 109-103 loss to the Lakers Saturday night. That was here at home.

Last month saw these teams combine for 245 points, but 41 of those came from Curry.

With the former MVP on the sidelines, the total for this game should be way lower. It was 235 with Curry in the lineup last month. His absence is certainly felt in the spread, but there’s definite value playing the Under. 10*

The Red Wings thrashed the Canucks in the opening game of a home and home series in Detroit.  They now meet 2 days later in Vancouver.  The Canucks are equally poor at home or away this season.  The Red Wings are just .500 on the road.  The Canucks defense is still very questionable; they've given up 20 goals in their 4 games since the break, which is even worse than their season's average of 4 per game.  While the Red Wings have struggled to score goals this season, They have a big edge on defense and in the net, especially when Husso is playing.  He has won 5 of his last 7 games with a save %of .923.

The Canucks still have some firepower, but losing Horvat has hurt.  Even if Detroit's offense is a little anemic,  Vancouver's defense and goalie can make any team's offense look like stars.  I am on the Underdog today.  Take Detroit to steal this one on the road.

Grambling is 9-2 SU its last 11 games, all but two of which have seen them go off as the favorite. Coming into Monday, the Tigers have won and covered three straight. They are favored again here, but it’s worth noting the previous two times they have been on a three-game win streak, the next game ended up being an outright loss. 

One of those losses was at rival Southern, which was also one of the rare instances of Grambling catching points. The other loss came as a five-point home favorite to Alcorn State. Tonight, the Tigers face a Prairie View A&M team that already beat them, 61-60 back on January 2nd.

Prairie View A&M was a 1.5-point favorite in that first matchup, so I’m seeing a little bit of value on them right away for tonight’s rematch. The Panthers have dropped five of seven overall, including a 79-65 loss at Southern over the weekend. But I’m not convinced this spread should be so large. 

Granted a lot has changed since these teams met in the conference opener. But Grambling has another revenge game on deck (Southern) and may be “looking ahead” to that game on Saturday. 

We’ve already seen this number get bet down at most shops and I expect that will continue throughout the day. 10* 

Coming into the season, the Jazz and Pacers were both expected to be among the worst teams in the NBA. They were each projected for just 23.5 wins. As you can see, both have wildly overachieved, already eclipsing their paltry projections.

But there can be no denying that both teams have slowed down of late, especially Indiana, who comes into Monday having lost 15 of its last 17 games. Utah has lost four of five.

The key for this game though is that Indiana is at home. They are 17-13 straight up and 18-11-1 ATS at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. 

Utah is only 10-18 straight up on the road. They have a winning ATS record, but that’s because they are usually a dog, which is obviously not the case here.

Even if the Pacers are bet to a favorite tonight, I’m sticking with them. (The Jazz are 2-5 SU/ATS as away favorites). The Jazz shook up the roster at the deadline and were down double digits to the Knicks Saturday before a late rally ultimately fell short. 10*

Here it comes!  The Eagles and the Chiefs meet up for all the marbles.  Mahomes continued his path to possible "GOAT" status with an inspired Conference Final game while obviously playing hurt. So why not another win on Super Sunday?
Injuries:  Mahomes may be healthier but what about KC's WRs?  The Chiefs have a lot more question marks around who will play on both sides of the ball.  The Eagles are basically healthy.
Passing defense:  #1 vs #19.  The Eagles are a legit number one pass defense; tops in all aspects.  the Chiefs barely beat the Bengals with a just average pass defense.  It will be much much tougher for the Chiefs to move the ball in the air this coming Sunday.  The Eagles are formidable in passer pressure, and Mahomes is still likely not 100% mobile.
Run game:  The Eagles have a good one, and the added advantage of a fine rushing passer.  Considering the low % of rush plays the Chiefs face on average (26% last game), the Chiefs can be run on when it suits the opposition.  Enter Hurts and the Eagles run-first offense, plus a defense that will limit the Chiefs' pass opportunities.
Let's do the Math. The Combination of a better Eagles defense (pass and run) added to a more flexible Philly offense equals an Eagles win.  Take Philadelphia to win and cover.   
 

If solid defense wins big games, then KC's best passing offense matches up poorly as it faces the Eagles and their legitimate league's best pass defense in this year's premier situation. Yes, we are talking about Mahomes, but there are enough question marks around the Chiefs' WRs playing at less than full strength as well as Mahomes' ankle issues to suggest that this won't be a Chief's pass attack in top shape. The Eagles absolutely will give Mahomes a much tougher time as far as passer pressure goes.  The Eagles also absolutely will run the ball as they did against SF. They ran on 53% of plays and had a huge 62% in time of possession last in their game (58% on average L3). More of a run game from the Chiefs wouldn't surprise me  this week.  I expect a slower than anticipated game on Sunday with both teams struggling to move the ball as freely than in previous games. I don't expect any more movement on the total, so I am jumping in now and "absolutely" wagering on Super Sunday's total to go under.

The Raptors are curiously 0-7 ATS the last seven meetings with the Pistons and have lost six of the seven games straight up. I look for that to change on Sunday.

The one straight up win came in Detroit, earlier this season, as the Raptors prevailed 115-111. 

On Friday, the Pistons needed double overtime to defeat the sorry Spurs 138-131. But that was just their third win in the last month. I have Detroit rated as the third worst team in the NBA, ahead of only the Rockets and Spurs.

Toronto also beat the Spurs this week, albeit much easier, 112-98. They followed that with a loss to Utah in a game that was decided in the fourth quarter.

Even though they are 26-31, the Raptors have a positive point differential for the season. They are better than their record and should be able to blow out the Pistons here. 10*

Over the last month, Robert Morris has lost three in a row, won three in a row and now lost three in a row again. The Colonials are coming off a tough 57-55 loss at Cleveland State Friday, a game that was decided in the closing seconds. RMU was 4 of 21 from three in the two-point loss. 

Fort Wayne also comes into Sunday on a bit of a losing streak. They’ve dropped two straight and four of six. This is a revenge spot for the Mastodons, who lost 75-70 at Robert Morris earlier in the season.

Fort Wayne was a three-point favorite when they made that visit to RMU. I know they lost, but it’s curious we are able to get them so cheap for this rematch.

Robert Morris only averages 64.0 points/game away from home where it is 4-11 straight up. Fort Wayne puts up 81.1 points/game at home.

I like the home team to exact some revenge here. I know it’s been a disappointing season, but Fort Wayne was thought to be one of the top Horizon League teams coming into the season and I think we’re getting a discount here. 10* 

The Habs are home to the Oilers in an early Sunday game.  Both teams played and won on Saturday, the Canadiens in OT and the Oilers easily.  That was Montreal's first win in 5 games.  The Habs are 3 games under .500 at home. The Oilers, on the other hand, are 8-2 L10, and are a better team on the road this season.  Tops in offense and Power Play this season, the Oilers are a threat for a high total in every game.  Facing the Canadiens' 28th ranked goals-against and 30th PK, a bevy of Oilers' goals is even more likely.

Skinner likely starts for the Oilers.  He has impressed this year, but his recent results have been mixed.  The Oilers are not always the most dependable team on defense.  Allen will start in net for the Canadiens and has been outright leaky of late.

Edmonton is 4-1 against Montreal in recent meetings and all of those games have gone over the total I don't believe that Sunday's game will be any different.  Wager on the Canadiens and Oilers to go Over.

#4 Arizona has won seven in a row while going 6-0-1 ATS, but the trip to Palo Alto tonight could be a tricky one. 

It’s been four straight blowouts for the Wildcats. As you know, it’s very difficult in grind of conference play to consistently win by double digit margins. 

Stanford had won five in a row before losing the last two. It was a close call here at home vs. Arizona State Thursday where the Cardinal lost by four, 69-65 as a 2.5 point favorite.

That was a brutal result for Stanford considering they led by eight with five minutes to go. 

Other than a trip to Colorado on Sunday, the Cardinal haven’t played a bad game in a month. This is a possible upset. 10*

I like the Over here. Last night’s Miami result is giving us some good value.

The Heat won Friday, but it was not pretty as they beat the Rockets 97-95 as 12-point favorites. That obviously went way Under. (Total closed 220.5). 

There should be more offensive success in this game against an Orlando team that gives up nearly 115 points/game. 

The Magic have played two straight low scoring games and have had three in a row go Under overall. But they are 6-1 Over on Saturdays this season.

The Magic’s last game, a 115-104 win over Denver, was 65-55 at halftime. 10*

Columbus and the Leafs played each other on Friday, with the Leafs winning handily.  On Saturday they face each other again, this time in Toronto.  Columbus has won only four games on the road this season, while the Leafs are a dominant 20-5 at home.  The Jackets are horrible in back to back situations and will likely play Merzlikins in net, who has won just four games this season and is giving up more than four goals a game.  The Leafs are 4-1 when playing recently in back to backs.  Their starter in net is unclear at this point.

Columbus has joined the 30-30 club this season, not admirable in this case.  They are 30th in offense and 30th ranked in defense with their power play only marginally better.  The Leafs have a top nine offense and are a stingy 6th ranked on defense, with a very good power play.  Now 2-8, and still with a very heavy injury list, the only competition the Jackets are in is the Bedard Cup.  Here is one puck line prospect I feel safe in backing.  Take the Maple Leafs at -1 1/2.

Texas State got the win on Thursday, but could not cover as seven-point favorites against Arkansas State. The final score was 66-62. Over their last eight games, the Bobcats are just 2-6 straight up and against the spread.

But I will play them laying a much shorter number Saturday against Old Dominion.

ODU is 4-1 SU/ATS its last five games, but every result has been decided by six points or less. Three wins have been by three points or less, so the Monarchs are probably due for some regression in close games. 

The reason Texas State didn’t cover is because Arkansas State was an abnormally good 9 of 18 from three-point range. ODU will not do the same. Plus, the Bobcats are due to start shooting better themselves from three.

Old Dominion is not only playing its second straight game on the road, but this is the fourth time in the last six games they’re on the road. Their opponent went just 2 of 13 from three in the last game. 10*

Providence has a remarkable record in close games the last two seasons, but I’m going to look to fade the Friars as road favorites here as they pay a visit to a desperate St. John’s team. 

The Johnnies started the year a perfect 8-0, but that was certainly the byproduct of a soft November schedule. Since that 8-0 start, the team is just 6-11. It’s an 0-3 start to February and they’ve failed to cover each of the last six games.

The Red Storm lost by two earlier this week at Butler (were 1.5 underdogs), dropping to 9-16 ATS overall this season. It was another close loss in the first meeting with Providence, which ended up being an 83-80 final. The Johnnies covered that one as seven-point dogs.

Providence may very well be looking past this game as they’ll be hosting Creighton on Tuesday. The Friars didn’t cover vs. Georgetown Wednesday and while they haven’t suffered back to back ATS losses since November, I see that happening here. 

In all due respect, I do not think Providence is a Top 25 team in the country. 10*

Here we’ve got Wright State, who has covered five in a row, as a short home favorite against Northern Kentucky in a Friday night Horizon League matchup. 

The Raiders just dropped 103 in their last game. Now that was against the hideous IUPUI (one of the worst teams in the country), but it’s not like they aren’t normally a high scoring team. Coming into this game, Wright State is Top 20 in the country, averaging 81.3 points/game.

At home, their scoring average rises to 85.8 points/game.

Northern Kentucky has yet to show me they can “keep up” with a team that scores that many. The Norse are averaging just 61.0 points/game away from home. They finished with only 56 in a loss at Youngstown State in the last game.

NKU did win the first meeting, back on December 29th, holding Wright State to just 64 points. But Wright State isn’t going to go 5 of 16 from three again nor will NKU go 11 of 23 again. Northern Kentucky has been an underdog five times this season. They’ve won and covered only once. Lay that short number. 10*

analysis coming

This is an UGLY matchup with the worst team in the NBA (Spurs) taking on a Pistons team that is in the bottom four. While we’ve seen both teams struggle to score recently, it’s not like either is known for playing much defense. So let’s go Over the total here.

Detroit is 29th (next to last) in the league in defensive efficiency. Would you like to guess who is last? That would be San Antonio. 

Neither of these teams play slow. In fact, both rank in the top 10 in pace. Combine that with the two worst defensive teams in terms of points allowed per possession and we’ve got ourselves a recipe for an Over. 

Oddsmakers are unfazed by the fact neither team scored 100 points in their last game. The Pistons had a horrific shooting night in Cleveland, including 8 of 32 from three. Three-point variance is something we can count on here, especially considering SA is allowing teams to hit over 40% from behind the arc.

The Pistons are also “due” for an Over after six straight Unders. The Spurs have allowed 127 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games. They allowed “only” 112 at Toronto Wednesday. That’s notable because you’d have to go back to Jan 6th to find the last time the Spurs went back to back games without allowing 120 or more points. 10* 

A healthy and better rested Rangers team hosts the 4-6 Kraken at home tonight.  the 7-3 Ranges have scored 9 goals in two straight wins since the break, allowing 7.  The Kraken, usually offense-driven, have scored just a single goal in two straight losses.  They are playing their third game in four days on the road.  It should be Grubauer vs Shesterkin in net tonight.  The Seattle goalie has been steadier than usual lately.  The Rangers' Shesterkin is a very solid bet to bounce back from a rare sub-.900 effort last time out.
The Rangers' big news is the addition of premier goal-scorer Tarasenko; a huge plus to the Rangers' 13th ranked offense. NY, usually a very good defensive team, will look to revenge a loss against the Kraken.  Seattle's recent power outage is concerning.  They are not completely dependable on defense.  Take the Rangers to win at  home.

Gonzaga should be very motivated here as they are coming off an overtime loss to St. Mary’s last Saturday, 78-70 as three-point dogs. That was a game the Zags led for almost all of regulation. They were up eight at halftime and maintained that edge going into the final eight minutes. 

Gonzaga doesn’t lose games back to back, but of course the oddsmakers know that and have them as double digit favorites tonight vs. San Francisco. This may seem like a steep number to lay Thursday, considering the “letdown factor” and that the Zags only won by two at San Francisco last month. 

But I’m not afraid. If Gonzaga had lost to St. Mary’s on a, say Thursday, and was laying this many points two days later, then I’d be a bit more hesitant. But they’ve had plenty of time to “get over” that loss to SMU and regain their composure for what should be a full scale effort.

San Francisco has had a pretty frustrating season and comes in as losers of two straight. They lost by nine at St. Mary’s, then by 13 at home to Santa Clara (were three-point favorites). The Dons just cannot match Gonzaga’s explosive offense, which puts up 92.8 points/game at home. 

In their last home game, Gonzaga was laying a similar number to the Santa Clara team that just beat USF. The Zags won by 18. 8*

The Nuggets just put up 146 in their last game, a blowout win over Minnesota. Over their last six games, there’s been only one time where Denver and the opposition failed to combine for 235 or more points. That was a 128-98 loss at Minnesota where Jokic didn’t play. 

Orlando’s last game was low scoring as they lost 102-98 to the Knicks. But the Magic are 16-5 to the Over this season when facing a team from the Western Conference. 

Three of the last four games have seen the Magic shoot worse than their season average from three. Denver lets teams hit 38.1% from behind the arc on the road. So Orlando should find success from downtown in this matchup.

In fact, the Nuggets allow teams to shoot better than 50% overall when they are the road team.

The Over is 8-3 L11 Magic home games as well as 5-0-1 in Denver’s last six overall. 10*

Georgia State has not had much success this season as they are 2-8 L10 games. But it’s the road that has given the Panthers trouble. All 10 of their wins in 2022-23 have come here at home and that’s where they are Thursday facing Old Dominion. 

ODU has won four of six and just beat Georgia Southern 64-58 as a five-point favorite on Saturday. But be careful about reading “too much” into that 4-2 run. Two of the Monarchs’ wins were by a combined three points, both of those on the road.

This Old Dominion team does not shoot the ball well. They’ve been held under 34% overall in three of the last five games and have been below 32% from three in six of their last eight.

At home, Georgia State is allowing only 63.4 points/game. 

The first meeting, which was just under a month ago, saw ODU shoot the lights out from two-point range (24 of 34!) and Georgia State shot poorly overall. We won’t see that kind of dramatic split in the rematch now that ODU is the road team. 10*

Golden State just put up 141 in a win over Oklahoma City Monday night, but remember there’s no Steph Curry (out through the All-Star Break) and I just don’t see a repeat of that offensive effort from the Warriors tonight.

Against the Thunder, Golden State shot 57.7% overall and 52% from three. Klay Thompson made 12 threes himself. I’m on the record as saying none of that will be repeated here.

How much of a scoring decrease we see here from the Warriors remains to be seen. But considering this team is just 7-20 on the road, averaging 116.6 points/game, it should be rather substantial.

Portland saw a streak of four straight games with 120 or more points broken on Monday. They finished with just 108 in a blowout loss at the hands of Milwaukee. 

None of the previous five meetings between these teams would have gone Over this total. The Blazers are 29-11 Under following a game where they allowed 125 or more points. 10*

The 3-10 Canucks have traded away their captain, fired their coach, and are missing their top net-minder.  It has been a turbulent and disappointing season for the Canucks, but they were surprisingly competitive against the Devils in their first game back from the break.  I doubt they will sustain that momentum tonight.

The Rangers barely survived a road game vs the Flames, but are back home tonight.  Shesterkin should be back in net. Behind a third-ranked defense, he has limited opposing teams to under 2.5 goals a game this year. Spencer Martin is expected in net for Vancouver.  Martin has played poorly with an increased role this season, with little support from the Canucks' 31st ranked defense and the worst PK in the league.  Martin gave up 6 goals in his last appearance.

The Canucks have lost some heart and fire-power in trading away Horvat and are a poor team on the road this season. Tonight's game is a fine opportunity for the 6-4 Rangers, who haven't faced a bottom dweller in some time.  NY needs to make a statement down the stretch, and this is the place to start.  Take the Rangers to win on the Puck line at -1 1/2.

Cleveland has been very good at home so far, going 22-6 straight up and 19-9 against the spread. But you’d have to go back to the LeBron days to find the last time they were favored by this many points.

It’s a good time to go against the Cavs, in my opinion. They’ve covered three in a row and are 2-0 vs. the Pistons this season. That all has conspired to inflate this number. 

Over the 82-game grind that is the NBA regular season, you’re going to have some “off nights.” Cleveland has been pretty dialed in each of its last two games, but I don’t see that same kind of effort forthcoming here in what will be the team’s third game in four days.

Detroit, who is expected to be a seller at the trade deadline, could use a good effort. They’ve dropped four of five and 8 of their last 10. I think they come out strong here against a division rival. 

Note that Cleveland is just 3-8 ATS following a double digit win. Grab the points. 10*

Michigan thwarted rival Ohio State on Sunday, winning 77-69 as a 2.5 point favorite. That was the Wolverines’ second straight win after they also beat Northwestern 68-51 as a 3.5 point road dog last Thursday.

While I did fade Michigan on Sunday, and that ultimately proved to be unwise, I’ve learned from the “mistake.” There’s no denying the Wolverines look to be in a very favorable situation tonight, hosting a Nebraska team I rate as significantly worse than Ohio State.

The Cornhuskers are probably the second worst team in the Big 10. Now they too won Sunday, 72-63 vs. Penn State as five point home underdogs, but prior to that had lost four straight and six of seven. Both wins over the last month came in Lincoln.

On the road, Nebraska has been a bit of a disaster, going 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread. Meanwhile, Michigan’s only home loss in conference play came to top ranked Purdue. 

I’m fine laying double digits here as Nebraska has covered just 2 of its last 10 games overall and hasn’t beaten Michigan since 2018. Six of the seven straight Michigan wins over Nebraska have come by double digits. 10* 

We’ve got some late night action in the Mountain West with New Mexico hosting Nevada. This is expected to be a high-scoring affair, but I think oddsmakers set the total too high.

Now the last time these teams met, it was a 97-94 final. That game went to double overtime. It was tied 78-78 at the end of regulation. We need a lower-scoring 40 minutes tonight, obviously, and I think we’ll get it.

New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country. But they’ve lost four of nine since that 14-0 start and have scored below their season average in all nine of those contests.

Nevada has seen four of its last five games ended with 141 or less total points scored. 

I know it’s scary to go with the Under when both teams have been regularly going Over of late. But this O/U line looks to be inflated. New Mexico holds teams to 30.3% from three-point range and Nevada only averages 68.2 points/game on the road. 10*

The Predators ran up three straight victories, winning 5 of 6 leading up to the All-star break.  While just .500 for the season, they have been much better in the second half.  Vegas is a good road team but has struggled in the second half, and are still a victim of the injury bug.  They continue to get solid goal-tending from Thompson, but are up against a rare game-altering net-minder in Saros, whose 92% save % has kept Nashville in many games.
With Mark Stone out and Eichel under-performing, the Knights' offense hasn't been strong lately, scoring just 5 goals in their four straight losses before the break.  Meanwhile the Preds are overachieving on offense, managing 13 goals against tough opposition in their three victories leading up to the Break.
I favor Saros and the Preds today, as were the odds-makers. I am not convinced that the Golden Knights will bounce back from their recent funk. Take Nashville, in a game that is now a pick-em, to win at home.

There is currently a four-way tie for first place in the Missouri Valley. Drake is one of those four teams tied for the top spot following back to back double overtime wins.

The Bulldogs have won five straight and eight of nine overall. They did not cover in the three-point win at Valpo on Saturday as they were 8.5 point favorites. But the spread is smaller for tonight’s visit to Murray State and I think they cover this number.

Murray State is two games back of the top four and coming off a horrible loss, 99-56 at Indiana State. Things didn’t go much better when they faced Drake the first time as that was an 18-point loss for the Racers.

While they did recently beat Belmont (by 1) here at home, Murray State is just 4-5 SU over its last nine games and two of those four wins came by three points or less. 

It’s always tempting to take the points at home, but in this case Drake has already demonstrated it is the better team. Yes, coming off two straight 2OT games is tough as well. But the Bulldogs are being undervalued because of that. Lay it. 8*

Orlando returns home, looking to make it three straight wins as a short dog. They’ve recently beaten Minnesota 127-120 (were +4) and Charlotte 119-113 (were +2), both on the road.

But I’m looking to fade the Magic here as the oddsmakers have started to give them too much respect. They are still just 12-19 SU vs. teams that are .500 or better.

The Knicks are 29-26 SU following a thrilling comeback win over the Sixers on Sunday. I had NY plus the points in that one. Now they go from home dogs to road favorites. This season, NY is 6-2 ATS laying points away from home.

Earlier in the season, the Knicks beat the Magic 115-102 as a 7.5-point home favorite. Yes, the Magic are better now. But minus Mo Bamba (suspended), I don’t see them winning here. Lay it. 10*

In what is clearly the premier matchup on Monday’s College Basketball card, I’ll ride with Kansas to beat Texas in a clash of Top 10 teams from the Big 12.

Kansas has lost four of six, so this result probably means more to them. Following wins over Kentucky and Kansas State, it looked like the Jayhawks had started to turn things around. But they lost at Iowa State over the weekend, 68-53.

After things got rather tumultuous, following the dismissal of Chris Beard, Texas has posted wins in seven of its last nine games. The Longhorns are coming off a couple close ones, however. They beat Baylor 76-71 last Monday and then came from behind to defeat Kansas State 69-66 on Saturday.

Against Kansas State, UT was down 11 at the half and didn’t take the lead until the final minute. So that’s a game they probably should have lost. Now turning around 48 hours later to play in Allen Fieldhouse is a tough situation, even for a team as talented as the ‘Horns. 

Kansas is 11-1 at home and this is a short number. This is the first time under Bill Self that the Jayhawks have lost four of five in conference play. It’s a good time to buy low. 8*

Sacramento suffered an embarrassing defeat on Sunday, going down 136-104 at the hands of New Orleans. That was a Pelicans team playing without Brandon Ingram, and in the second night of a back to back.

So it’s tempting to play the Kings here as they face the lowly Rockets. But there’s no indication (yet) that De’Aaron Fox will return. Nevertheless, I do expect there to be no shortage of scoring in this game.

Jalen Green is back for Houston and their defense only gets worse with him on the floor. In Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma City, the Rockets gave up 153 points and 1.577 points per possession in non-garbage time. That’s atrocious.

Considering the Kings just allowed 136 to an undermanned Pelicans squad, defense seems like will be “optional” in this Monday night NBA tilt.

In fact, the last time these teams met, they combined for 253 points. That was on January 13th, so not long ago. Two days before that, they combined for 250. This is an easy call on the Over. 10*

After winning (and covering) six in a row, the Wizards have lost two straight. In both losses, they blew leads of 20+ points. So there’s an argument to be made that this team should be on an eight-game SU win streak entering Monday.

Against Portland on Friday, the Wizards saw their big lead quickly go away in the third quarter. Then on Saturday in Brooklyn, who didn’t have Durant, Irving, or Simmons, it was more of the same.

Here they are catching a small number at home and facing a Cleveland team that just played Sunday. The Cavs were successful yesterday, downing Indiana 122-103. But even with that result, they are just 11-16 SU on the road this season.

There is always a chance that Donovan Mitchell could sit tonight. 

Washington is poor as a home favorite (3-9 ATS) but 22-17-1 ATS otherwise. I like them as a dog tonight. 8*

We're back in business on the ice after the all-star break. My best NHL bet for Monday is the 8-2 Lightning  roughing up the home side Panthers.  The Lightning aren't as good on the road as at home, but they have had good success when visiting the Panthers.  The Panthers are just 5-5 in recent games and are missing both of their top goalies.  Journeyman goalie Lyon will likely be in net again.  He has started 6 straight games, and has been better expected, but he'll face Tampa's potent top 4 offense and top 3 PK.  The Panthers can put the puck in the net but their defense and PK has been suspect irregardless of whoever has tended the net this season. Lyon will face a ton of shots again.  Vasilevsky will start for the Lightning.  He has been super-sharp in his last couple of games, and is a winning machine again this season.

The favorite usually wins when these two State rivals face off.  The Lightning are definitely the better team this season, and their goalie superiority is the clincher.  Take the Lightning to strike again on the road.

Note the slightly earlier tip time for this one (6 PM ET). 

Hartford finally won a game back on 1/25 when it upset Stonehill 73-56 as an eight-point underdog. But the Hawks had no real chance to build any sort of momentum, as they were off until Saturday - when they lost 62-49 to Chicago State, the only other D-I independent. 

For Hartford, this long “homestand” continues Monday when they welcome in UMass-Lowell. I think it’s a good spot to take the Hawks as a big dog. All five of their wins this season have come at home.

Since Hartford is an independent, most opponents will not get “up” for them. In the case of UMass-Lowell, I believe it’s an especially good time to fade though. The River Hawks twice won by double digits last week and are probably peaking towards this weekend’s game at Vermont, which could decide first place in the America East.

In road games where the total is 135 to 139.5, UMass Lowell is just 1-6 ATS this season. Take the points. 10*

Stanford comes into Boulder on a five-game win streak, but one of those wins was out of conference (Chicago State) and they also beat the bottom two teams in the Pac 12 (Cal and Oregon State). So I’m not all that impressed with what I’ve seen from the Cardinal recently.

Colorado is a team that has been struggling; they’ve won just two of their last seven games while going 1-6 ATS. But almost all of their losses have been close and to top teams in the conference.

I like the Buffaloes here as they’ve already gone on the road and beat Stanford 73-70 as a 2-point underdog. They did so despite making nine fewer free throws.

This will also be Stanford’s second road game of the week. Credit them for pulling an upset in Utah Thursday, 78-72 as a six-point underdog, but that was also their first true road win of the season. (They’ve only played five!)

Colorado hasn’t been very good as a favorite, but they are 10-2 SU at home and this is a pretty short number. 8*

Philadelphia has won 9 of 10 and just beat San Antonio 137-125 as a 10-point favorite on Friday. New York has won just 3 of 10 after losing in overtime last night, 134-128 to the Clippers, as a 2.5-point home underdog.

Despite those recent streaks, and this being the second night of a back to back, I’m siding with the Knicks on Sunday. 

I believe NY can exploit a Philly defense that has actually gotten worse while the team has been winning. 

In five of the last six games, the Sixers have allowed 119 or more points. The one exception was Wednesday’s home win over Orlando, who missed 32 of their 38 attempts from three. 

The Knicks’ 12-13 SU home record seems a bit misleading as they’ve scored more points than they’ve allowed. I know they were down 17 in the 4Q last night, before making a furious rally to force OT. But we’re also getting points here, which I like, as NY is 6-1 ATS its last seven games vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. 10* 

Ohio State has lost eight of nine, including a 65-60 loss to Wisconsin on Thursday where they were 7.5-point home favorites. However, I think we’ve hit the “bottom of the market” on the Buckeyes and this is the right time to “buy low.”

Michigan just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 68-51 upset at Northwestern where the Wolverines were 3.5 point underdogs. But overall, the Maize and Blue have dropped five of eight, so it’s not like they are in significantly better form than their rivals heading into Sunday.

KenPom has Ohio State rated as the unluckiest team in the country. That’s supported by the fact that five of their last eight losses have come by five points or fewer. 

The Buckeyes also boast a top 15 offense in the country in terms of efficiency. Michigan’s defense struggles to stop penetration, so look for the underdog to get plenty of points going to the rim in this Sunday matchup. 

I would not be the least bit surprised to see OSU win this game outright, then go on a nice late season run. I have them rated as a better team than Michigan so take those points. 10* 

Eastern Washington remains one of five teams in the country yet to lose a conference game. For the record, the others are: Alabama, Colgate, Oral Roberts and St. Mary’s. I will be fading Eastern Washington tonight as they visit Portland State.

These teams already met once and it was (obviously) Eastern Washington that won, 92-80. The Eagles shot 58% from the floor in that game and went 16 of 31 from three. They will not be doing that again here on the road.

Portland State got a much needed home victory on Thursday, beating Idaho 69-66. That ended a two-game losing streak. The Vikings had also previously dropped three in a row at home. While 1-6 ATS L7 games overall, I think there’s some real value in this team Saturday.

It’s a great spot with tonight being PSU’s fourth straight game at home. Eastern Washington is playing its second road game in three days. The only other time they had to do this and were favored, they did not cover at Northern Arizona. 

While 9-0 SU at home, EWU is just 8-7 SU in road/neutral site games. Portland State is the ONLY team in the country yet to cover a single spread at home. That changes tonight in a major way. Take the points. 10*

Milwaukee scored only 106 in its last game, which is far from the norm for them. We're talking about a team that had previously scored 124 or more in six of eight games. The Bucks' offensive efficiency, over the last two weeks, is where you'd expect it to be.

The Over is 14-8 this season in Bucks' games where the total is 220 or higher. I anticipate them scoring a ton tonight.

Now Miami only scored 104 points in its last game. They've topped 110 just once in the last seven games, however, I think we can expect more than normal tonight given the Bucks' involvement.

Two head to head meetings in January failed to produce more than 210 points. Neither Giannis Antekounmpo nor Khris Middleton played in those games though. Take the Over. 10*

Portland has won three straight and covered six of seven, but they had to come back from 20 down last night in Washington, so they are probably ripe to be blown out tonight in Chicago. 

The Bulls won by 16 against Charlotte on Thursday and didn’t even get good games from either DeRozan or LaVine. Those two combined for just 25 points.

But the Bulls have won five of eight overall. In one of the three losses, they blew a big lead.

I just think all signs point to a comfortable win for the home team.

For the past two seasons, UNC Wilmington has been one of the luckiest teams in the country. Their straight up record is to be respected, but there have been a lot of close wins. For that reason, I’ll fade the Spartans laying points on the road.

William & Mary has never been to the NCAA Tournament and they won’t get this year barring a run in the CAA Tournament. But the Tribe did beat UNCW 69-67 as a 12-point road underdog on January 14th. 

That was the rare close loss for UNCW. Unfortunately for W&M, they haven’t covered a single spread since (0-6 ATS). But that ATS skid has this number inflated. I know the favorite is out for revenge, but the home team is desperate for a win as well.

Note W&M was just 2 for 14 from three when they beat UNCW last month. I certainly expect they’ll shoot better from three this afternoon. 

UNCW has a big showdown against Charleston looming and they could be looking ahead to that Wednesday contest. Take the points. 10* 

This sets up as perhaps the biggest game of the season in the Mid American Conference as you’ve got first place Kent State traveling to face an Akron team that is a perfect 11-0 SU at home this season.

The host Zips have won seven in a row overall, most recently destroying Buffalo on the road, 81-64 as short two-point favorites.

Kent State has lost just four games all season. Three of those losses were to Gonzaga, Houston and Charlotte, three teams that have a combined SU record of 61-9. The Golden Flashes only conference loss came last week at Northern Illinois, 86-76, and that was a real shocker considering they were 13-point favorites. 

Now the Golden Flashes are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons as a road underdog of three points or less. But I feel that Akron’s home court advantage will be too difficult to overcome.

The Zips are 31-4 SU L35 games here and we only have to lay a small number. They average 80.4 points/game at the J.A.R. This is a great team at defending the rim and Kent State is outside the Top 200 in 3-point shooting. Leading scorer Castaneda did not play against Ball State on January 6th, which is Akron’s only conference loss. He’s gone for 32 points in three of the last four games. 10* 

I cashed with the Pacers last night, but want NO part of them here in the second night of a back to back against Sacramento.

Indiana led most of the way Thursday against the Lakers, but succumbed to a 28-15 fourth quarter rally by LeBron and company and thus ended up losing by a final score of 112-111. At least they covered the spread (+2.5). 

That was the Pacers fourth straight loss and 11th loss in the last 12 games. In the only win during that 12-game stretch (1/24 vs. Chicago), they trailed by 21 in the first half.

Sacramento is keen on ending what is the longest playoff drought for any team in the four “major” North American sports. The Kings are well on their way to making the playoffs for the first time since 2006. They are currently third in the Western Conference with a 29-21 overall record and have won 9 of their last 12 games.

Earlier this season, when the Pacers were playing better, they lost by 23 points to the Kings. These are now two teams trending in opposite directions. 10*

The Bulls and Hornets have already played twice this season. Both games went Under the total. I expect this one to be higher scoring though (as, obviously, so do the oddsmakers).

While five of the last six Bulls games have gone Under the total and four of the last five Hornets games have stayed Under as well, we are looking at a pair of teams more than capable of scoring - or allowing - a lot of points on any given night.

Charlotte takes a lot of threes and has scored 122 and 115 points its last two games. I’m confident they can score in that range again tonight.

The issue for the Hornets is they allow 120.5 points/game on the road. They just gave up 124 at Milwaukee.

Chicago was just 4 of 25 from three the last time they played Charlotte. But that was on the road and I expect much better shooting tonight. Take the Over.

Western Kentucky hosts UTSA in Conference USA action Thursday night. Whereas these schools played for the conference championship in football, the basketball programs are not pulling their weight.

WKU has dropped five in a row. They did cover Saturday’s game at FAU as 12.5 point underdogs. It was the second loss to FAU (C-USA’s #1 team) over those L5 games. The Hilltoppers have been one of the big disappointments in the league so far, but oddsmakers still expect them to win big tonight and so do I. 

UTSA has lost eight straight overall and is 0-8 on the road. They have been outscored by 17.2 points/game away from home this season. In conference play, they are being outscored by 12.4 points/game.

The Roadrunners only conference win came all the way back on Jan 5 as a 10 point home underdog vs. Middle Tennessee.  Since then, five of the eight losses have been by double digits. This includes a 10 point loss at home to Western Kentucky.

Again, I expect WKU to roll here. The key here is the Hilltoppers are averaging 77.3 points/game at home. UTSA is giving up 80.6 on the road. I just don’t see a Roadrunners team averaging 63.4 points/game on the road scoring enough here to cover when the opposition is likely to put up somewhere around 80 points. 10*

Indiana had been a real pleasant surprise this NBA season, but has now dropped 10 of its last 11 games. Just to illustrate how low expectations were here, the team has already exceeded its preseason win projection.

Expectations are always high for the Lakers, but they always seem to fall short. Right now, LeBron and company find themselves third from the bottom in the Western Conference standings.

LA did just go on the road and beat NY in what was the second night of a back to back for them. But now we’re talking about a fourth road game in six days. I just don’t have faith in this Lakers team.

They give up 121 points/game on the road and even with James & Davis on the floor, the net efficiency rating isn’t as high as you’d think. 

The Pacers are 16-9-1 ATS at home this year. I like them getting points. If Tyrese Haliburton could return (questionable), that would be an added bonus. 10*

Northern Kentucky hits the road to face Robert Morris in Horizon League play Thursday night. The hosts have won and covered three straight. The visitors just had a four-game win streak snapped over the weekend. 

It was a one-point loss for NKU at Milwaukee on Saturday, 75-74 as 6.5 point favorites. Just a brutal result for the Norse, who were up 20 - at home - at the half. Milwaukee used a stunning 24-4 second half run to turn the game on its head. 

As a result, Northern Kentucky should be VERY motivated here. They know it should be a five-game win streak coming into tonight’s tilt.

Prior to their current three-game run, Robert Morris had lost five of six. So I’m not buying the Colonials. 

Especially since NKU already beat RMU this year, back in December, 60-56 as seven point favorites. While the Norse didn’t cover the spread at home, tonight all we need is a straight up victory. 10*

The expectation for this game is that New Mexico and Utah State are going to put up a lot of points. I understand that. New Mexico is averaging 82.4 points/game this season while Utah State puts up 79.9. 

But I like the Under here. The number is just too high. 

Looking through the results, New Mexico has had just one game all season close with a total higher than 156 points. That was January 9th vs. Oral Roberts and it stayed Under.

Similarly, Oral Roberts is the only Utah State opponent this season where the total was this high. 

Utah State is #1 in the country in three-point percentage, but can they really continue hitting above 40%? I don’t think so. Meanwhile, with New Mexico, only nine teams in the country take a fewer percentage of total field goal attempts from beyond the arc. 10*

St. John’s is off a close call where they only beat Georgetown by two points. Had they lost there, it would have been really embarrassing. As it stands, the Johnnies have dropped 7 of 10 overall.

But I like them here, at home vs. a Seton Hall team that is off one of its best performances in quite some time. The Pirates just went on the road and beat Butler 70-49. I’m choosing to view that as an “outlier” performance. 

Seton Hall had a week off before facing Butler. They’d previously lost at home to Marquette by 21 points. Before that, they’d won two games by a total of five points.

Now Seton Hall did take the first meeting with St. John’s by 22 points and is 6-2 SU their last eight games overall. But the Johnnies should amped to avenge that loss here at home where they are 10-3 SU this season.

This one boils down to pace. St. John’s plays at the fourth fastest tempo in the country. That can lead to some bad defensive efforts, but they are averaging almost 80 points/game at home. Seton Hall has three wins by a total of four points this year. If not for those, they’d be an afterthought.  Despite some injury concerns, I like the home team here. 10*

Here’s another NBA play where we will have to hold our noses. San Antonio has lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12 games. They’ve failed to cover each of the last five times out.

But, despite all that, I’m not sure Sacramento (who is playing its third consecutive road game) should be laying this many points.

The Kings still carry a bottom 10 defensive rating and have given up more points than they’ve scored on the road this season.

They needed overtime to get the “W” on Monday in Minnesota. I think there’s a good chance the Kings “overlook” the Spurs tonight.

Despite all their woes, San Antonio is 8-3 ATS their last 11 games against teams that have winning records. Take the points. 8*

The Hurricanes have won 6 straight, averaging over 4 goals a game in those wins , which is a step up on their 3.3 goal season's average.  They are on  back to back game tonight, but have a solid record in this situation.  The Hurricanes are an exceptional road team, facing a Sabres team that is below .500 at home.  Carolina is very good on defense and on the PK, and especially good at limiting shots.  They will need to be , since the Sabres are tops in the league on offense.

The Sabres are 5-1 in recent action, and while their offense is down slightly, they appear to be a little more defensively responsible, allowing 3 goals or less in their recent games.  Tage Thompson is day to day, and with the all star break just one day away, he will probably be rested.  It is a hit to the Sabres offense if he is MIA.

In spite of the Sabres being at home and better rested, I am wagering on the 'Canes  tonight.  Carolina is a very streaky team,  on a very solid run.  Raanta, likely starts tonight in net and he has three shutouts in his last 6 starts in spite of infrequent usage.  Take the Hurricanes to steal another road game.

Wyoming is a team in dire need of a turnaround as they have lost 9 of 10 overall with the one victory coming by a single point. But heading into tonight, the Cowboys have a key edge over their opponent in that they’ve been off for a full week.

The revenge angle is also in play here. Wyoming lost to Fresno State 58-53 back on December 28th. In that game, they held FSU to just 36.7% shooting but were ultimately undone by second chance points. Wyoming had 16 fewer shot attempts, which is obviously huge in a game that was decided by only five points.

That would be the first of what would end up being three straight losses by five points or less for the Cowboys.

This team has gotten healthier since. You wouldn’t have known it from last Tuesday’s showing at UNLV, but at home I’m expecting a better effort. There’s a reason the Cowboys come in as the favorites.

Fresno State has lost five of six itself with four of those losses coming by double digits. Over the weekend, they fell by 17 at home to Utah State. I think this situation sets up tremendously well for Wyoming. Lay the short number. 10* 

Usually, when we talk about Vanderbilt wandering into Tuscaloosa “at the wrong time,” we think of Nick Saban. But over at the Coleman Coliseum, things are likely to get pretty ugly Tuesday night.

That’s because the 4th ranked Crimson Tide just got humiliated out in Oklahoma on Saturday. They lost 93-69 in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge and saw their nine-game win streak come to a crashing halt.

But Bama is still undefeated in SEC play (10-0), one of just six teams in the country without a conference loss.

They’ve already beaten Vandy once, by 12, and that was on the road. The final margin tonight should be a lot greater when you consider the Tide are winning by an average of nearly 23 points/game at home. 

The Commodores have lost five of seven overall. They didn’t get to play a Big 12 team over the weekend, but did lose another conference tilt, 72-66 at Texas A&M. Vandy obviously isn’t anywhere near as talented as Alabama and this is a terrible spot to be facing one of the best teams in the country, who should be plenty angry and motivated. Lay it. 10*

The Clippers sat both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George Sunday in Cleveland. Therefore, their five-game win streak went “bye bye” in a (somewhat) predictable 122-99 loss. 

It looks like both Leonard and George will play tonight, so most bettors are probably going to want to lay the short number. But I’m wary of a Bulls team that’s won five of its last six at home.

But I don’t want to back the Bulls getting so few points. Therefore, we turn to the total, which is too high in my opinion. That’s probably because the last four Clippers’ games all went Over the total. But they remain bottom eight in the league in pace and I suspect we’ll see better defense tonight than what we saw on Sunday. 

Chicago put up 128 in a win on Saturday where they shot almost 60% from the floor. No way they come close to shooting it that well again. The Clippers are also due for some shooting regression. 

The Under is 4-1 in the Bulls’ last five games as well as 5-0 the last five times they’ve been off an ATS win (as they are here). 10*

Both the Lakers and Knicks are looking to bounce back from losses to Brooklyn in their most recent games. I think the home team is well-positioned to be the one that gets the job done.

This is the second night of a back to back for the Lakers, who lost 121-104 in Brooklyn last night. Neither LeBron James or Anthony Davis suited up Monday. That was their second loss in a row, coming on the heels of the “controversial” overtime loss to Boston Saturday night. 

The Knicks lost in Brooklyn Saturday night, 122-115 as a 1-point favorite. Defensively, they had few answers, especially for Kyrie Irvin. Prior to that though, NY had won two straight.

Curiously, the Knicks are just 12-13 SU at home this season. I expect that record to improve moving forward. The Lakers, just 10-16 on the road, are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here.

Look for the Knicks to punish a Lakers team that is allowing 120.9 points/game on the road. James and Davis both remain on the injury report and if one (or both) were not to play tonight, the current number is a steal. (Note: this play stands whether or not James and/or Davis plays or not).  8*

The Raptors have started to play a bit better. They’re still five games below .500 and 12th in the East, mind you. But they’ve also won three of four, most recently defeating the Kings in Sacramento by a score of 123-105 (as a 4.5 point dog). Now they head to Phoenix, looking to improve to 3-1 on this current trip out West.

The Suns had a miserable post-Christmas stretch where they lost 9 of 10. Injuries were the main culprit. Devin Booker remains out but the team has now won five of six. The only loss in that stretch came here at home vs. Dallas Thursday night. I faded the Suns in that spot and will do the same again tonight.

Saturday’s 128-118 win in San Antonio was a little misleading as the Suns needed overtime. It also bears mentioning that the Spurs are one of the two worst teams in the league.

Toronto has scored more points than its allowed this season, so they should have a better record. They beat the Suns 113-104, albeit at home, back on December 30th.

Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne also remain out for Phoenix. DeAndre Ayton was battling a non-COVID illness last week while Chris Paul is just a week removed from his own seven-game absence. Take the points while you can get them. 10*

Texas Tech picked up a much needed win on Saturday as they defeated LSU 76-68 as a 2.5 point road favorite in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. But the Red Raiders are still winless (0-8) in conference play. They look to change that Monday night against an Iowa State team that’s also now reeling a bit.

Iowa State was not successful in its game vs. the SEC, losing 78-61 at Missouri as a one point favorite. That drops the Cyclones to 0-3 ATS their last three games. They’ve dropped three of five outright, all three of the SU losses coming on the road. 

This is a huge revenge game for Texas Tech, who got beat 84-50 in Ames back on January 13th. There was a wide disparity in three-point shooting for the game as ISU went 12 of 22 from deep while TT was 5 of 26.

Despite being 0-8 in Big 12 play, the Red Raiders have almost always been competitive. Five of their losses have been by seven points or less. Two of those were by three or less (to Texas and Kansas) and they also lost in OT to Oklahoma. There have been three games on the conference slate where Texas Tech had the lead at halftime.

Prior to losing in Ames three weeks ago, the Red Raiders were a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. Iowa State going back to 2019. Take the points (while you can get them) and even look to bet TT as a slight favorite (if the line moves). 10* 

These two divisional rivals meet up with both teams struggling in recent games.  The Jets are just 3 points out of first place but have lost 3 straight including a rare pair at home.  St. Louis is singing the blues this season.  They are just 4-6 L10 and have lost 4 straight, scoring just 8 goals and allowing 19.  The Jets have usually played a fine defensive style with the fifth-ranked defense and a very good PK.  In most of their recent games, Winnipeg has continued to shut down the opposition, but a very capable offense has not shown well.  The Blues are well below average on defense and offense at five-on-five, and just average on special teams.  They have some significant injuries as well.
The Jets and Blues goalies are long-time foes.  Hellebuyck has been playing much better than Binnington this year.  He was pulled after rare poor play, which will rankle.  After a couple of days off, look for the Jets and their goalie to pull it together on Monday.  Take the Jets to win on the puck line at -1 1/2. 

It looks like a tall order here for Orlando as they will be facing a Philadelphia team that has won 20 of its last 24 games and seven straight. Over the last three seasons, the Magic are 0-9 vs. the 76ers. 

This is the third meeting of the season between the two teams. The previous two were in Orlando with Philly winning by scores of 133-103 and 107-99. 

I think this will be more like the first one, which was low-scoring. Yes, the NBA’s leading scorer Joel Embiid is coming off a 47-point game for the Sixers. But after their last three games all went Over, I think this Sixers’ offense is set to cool down some.

Orlando fell over the weekend to Chicago, 128-109 as 2.5-point home favorites. They are 11-3 Under this season after suffering a double digit loss.

Philadelphia is fourth in the NBA in points allowed and holds opponents to 47.4% shooting. I’m not at all concerned about Orlando putting up a lot of points tonight. Above all else though, we’re talking two teams that have both shot & allowed over 50% their last five games. That’s not going to continue. 10*

New Orleans is in a free fall, having lost seven straight while going 1-5-1 ATS. They just lost three in a row at home, so maybe hitting the road will bring a change in fortune? 

Except for the fact the Pelicans are facing Milwaukee tonight. The Bucks have won three straight and five of six.

In four of those five wins, the Bucks have scored more than 130 points. They dropped 141 at Indiana Friday night. They scored 150 in Detroit earlier in the week.

Of course, the Bucks also gave up 130+ in those two games. I see no reason why tonight’s contest won’t also be high scoring and go Over the total.

The Over is 16-8 in Pelicans’ road games this season. It’s the same record when the Bucks are at home. Even high totals don’t matter when Milwaukee is involved. The Over is 8-2 when the O/U line is 230+ for them.  10*

The Bengals were a road favorite just a few days ago, but with clarification about Mahomes' availability, this game is now a pick'em.  The Bengals have had more success than any team against the Chiefs.  Against the Bills last week, the Bengals' offense was the complete package. Burrow threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns, and the run game put up a huge 160+ yards against a tough Bills run defense.  The defense dominated, limiting the Bills to just 60 rush yards, and Allen to no passing TDs.
The Chiefs are not above giving up points, especially in the air (32nd ranked in pass TDs allowed), and there will be concern about Mahomes' mobility, not to mention the three straight losses against the Bengals.
Not to underestimate Mahomes and the Chiefs, but Burrow is the prince in waiting, the Cincinnati run game put up some big numbers, and the Bengals' defense really impressed.  Take the Bengals to win and cover.

PLEASE NOTE: This pick was previously posted as favoring the Chiefs, when the write-up clearly stated that it was a selection on the Bengals. It has since been corrected. Call it pilot error: I clicked the wrong button.  My apologies for the confusion.