All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
05-09-18 | Angels v. Rockies -144 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -144 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies surprised almost all observers by going 87-75 last season to earn a wild card spot, after entering 2017 on a run of six consecutive sub-.500 seasons. Colorado closed April on a three-game losing streak but they have been unbeatable so far in May. Colorado looks to extend its month-opening winning streak to seven games when it hosts the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday afternoon for the finale of its two-game interleague series. The Rockies finished their 6-3 road trip with five consecutive victories before returning home to post a 4-2 win over the Angels on Tuesday. Los Angeles managed only six hits and was kept off the scoreboard for the first seven innings as it dropped to 2-2 on its five-game road trip. The Rockies are now 21-15, having closed within 3 1/2 games of the first-place Arizona in the NL West. As for the Angels, after a 13-3 start, they are 8-11 since, checking in at 21-14 (a half-game behind the first-place Astros in the AL West). |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 229.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors have been to the last three NBA Finals (all against the Cavs), winning twice. The Warriors came up short in Game 3 in a 19-point loss, scoring a modest 100 points on 38.0% shooting (including 9-of-31 on threes). However, the Pelicans have seemed powerless to halt Golden State's assault in the other three games, as the Warriors have averaged 120.7 points in their three victories in the series. Golden State now looks to close out the Western Conference semifinals when it hosts the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday. New Orleans is insisting it won't roll over with its season on the line but ripping off three straight wins will be a daunting chore. "No, no. We've got to win one game at Oracle and that's the one that we play next," Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry said in reference to Game 5 in Oakland. "That's as far as we need to look. Obviously it's a monumental task. It's been done before. As I said to the guys, we've just got to go play and you're not out until they win four games." New Orleans: The Pelicans suffered from poor shooting (36.4%) and ball-handling (19 turnovers) in the Game 4 loss. They have to do nbetter than that and naturally, will rely on Anthony Davis, who is averaging 26.3 points and 13.8 rebounds in the series plus has a double-double in all eight of the team's postseason games (29.6 & 12.8). Of concern is the fact that the Pelicans have burned their starters big minutes, with Anthony Davis (39.3) and Jrue Holiday (38.2) leading the series in minutes played. The New Orleans bench has not been up to the task, getting outscored 134-95 in the four games. "We do have guys that are playing heavy minutes," Gentry explained. "Really, all the starters are playing real heavy minutes. I thought it would be a good idea today to let their minds rest, their bodies rest." He had that in mind when he called off a Monday workout. The pick: Hard to imagine New Orleans coming back to win this series but that's not the question here. In fact, the Pelicans have played their best in the series when rested. The teams got two days off in Oakland after Golden State's 123-101 victory in Game 1 and the Pelicans rebounded with a strong effort in Game 2, falling just 121-116 on the road. Then after two more days off, New Orleans was re-energized at home and responded with its 119-100 triumph. However, the teams were then rushed back from a Friday night to a Sunday afternoon for Game 4, during which the Pelicans shot just 4 of 26 on three-pointers after having scorched the nets for 14 of 31 in the Game 3 win. The Pelicans don't have two days off here but they shouldn't be as tired with this schedule (Sunday afternoon game to a Tuesday evening one). Also, Golden St is just 19-26-1 ATS this year at home (including playoffs), as well as 12-17-1 ATS when laying 10-plus points,. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-08-18 | Jazz +12.5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston Rockets drilled the Jazz in Game 1 of this series but then lost Game 2. However, the league's best regular season team (65-17) rebounded with back-to-back double-digit victories at Salt Lake City to take a commanding 3-1 series lead." Houston is that good. Give them credit. They know how to control a game," Jazz head coach Snyder told reporters after a 100-87 loss on Sunday in Game 4. Chris Paul ate up Utah's defense with a string of short jumpers en route to a 27-point, 12-rebound, six-assist effort for Houston, his best game of the 2018 postseason. James Harden added 24 points, while center Clint Capela had 12 & 15, his fifth double-double in his last six games. The Jazz shot 38.6% as a team, including an awful 7 of 29 (24.1%) on threes. The Rockets are aiming for their eighth trip to a conference finals and their first since 2015, when they lost to Golden State, Utah: Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell is doing his best to be the leader on the offensive end (24.4 PPG in the playoffs) but PG Ricky Rubio has still not played in the series due to a hamstring issue. That's allowed the Rockets to key in on the 21-year-old, who was 8-of-24 from the floor Sunday as the Jazz shot a playoff-low 38.6 percent. Joe Ingles had 27 points in the Game 2 win at Houston but averaged just 10.5 on 34.8 percent shooting in the two contests at home. Mitchell and Ingles shot 30 percent and 34.8 percent at Vivint Smart Home Arena, respectively, with both missing 10 of 14 three-pointers. PF Derrick Favors was limited to 16 minutes in Game 4 due to a sprained ankle, as injuries have taken their toll on Utah. Houston: Harden and Paul get the bulk of the headlines but center Clint Capela's ability to raise his game has made Houston particularly dangerous this spring. He had 12 points, 15 rebounds and six blocked shots in Game 4 and is averaging 15.4 points, 13.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks in the playoffs, all increases from the regular season. The Rockets are undoubtedly the better team and for the most part, have been the more aggressive team. Heading into Game 5, Houston has made 75 FTs to Utah's 55. Harden has made 36 free throws in the series, while Mitchell leads Utah with just 12. The pick: The Rockets would love to put Utah away here and move on to an all but guaranteed showdown with teh Warriors. However, a win doesn't figure to come easily. Utah's Snyder said after Game 4, "We missed 22 shots at the rim. We had our chances and didn't convert. Some of them were contested. Some of them were open. You're not going to get any better shot." I expect Mitchell and Ingles to shoot much better than they did in the last two games plus how can Jae Crowder shoot any worse? He was 2-of-17 from the floor over the last two games. after going 13-of-23 over the first two. As for the Rockets, despite a 13-point win in Game 4, Harden and Paul combined to make just 2 of 13 three-point attempts. For the series, Harden is converting on a modest 36.0% of his threes, while Paul is making only 29.4% of his three-point attempts. What's also to be noted is that Houston is just 20-25-1 ATS this year at home (including playoffs), as well as 10-18-1 ATS when laying 10-plus points. Make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-08-18 | Mets v. Reds -138 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets opened the season 11-1 but they just recently finished a wretched homestand with Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Rockies. New York had opened last week by getting swept by the Braves and then got swept by the Rockies. After an 0-6 homestand, the 17-1 began a six-game road trip last night, starting beginning with the first of three against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. The Mets had been outscored 34-11 during their disastrous 0-6 homestand and had dropped 14 of their last 20 after taht blistering 11-1 start to the season, opening the new week at 17-15. However, good news came New York's way in that its opponent from Monday-Wednesday was the sad-sack Cincinnati Reds, who were tied with Baltimore for the worst record in the majors at 8-26. As has been the case all too often for the Cincinnati Reds this season, Great American Ball Park has been cure for whatever was ailing the other team's offense prior to that series. New York scored in only six of the 54 innings it played during its 0-6 homestand, getting shut out three times. The Mets had totaled just 11 runs (over six games), seven of which came in one game. However, the Mets pushed across at least one run in each of the first five innings of their series-opening 7-6 victory on Monday. The Reds fell to 8-27, giving them MLB's worst record, as the 8-26 Orioles were idle on Monday. The Reds also fell to 4-15 at home, where they have allowed HRs (37) than any team in MLB, while allowing a National League-worst 5.74 runs per game in those 19 home contests. The pitching matchup: The Mets will send lefty Jason Vargas (0-2, 16.20 ERA) to the mound and teh Reds will counter with Luis Castillo (1-4, 7.01 ERA). Vargas won a career-best 18 games and was an All-Star for the first time last season with Kansas City. He cashed in by signing a two-year, $16 million deal over the winter and teh Mets had hoped he would eventually be the No. 3 starter behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The veteran underwent surgery on his hand back on March 20 (he suffered a broken right hand on March 16) and returned to the mound in his season debut on April 28, giving up nine runs over 3 2/3 innings as the Mets fell to the San Diego Padres 12-2. He was then tagged for six runs on 11 hits in last Thursday's 11-0 loss to Atlanta. Right-handed hitters are batting .500 with three HRs in 30 at-bats against Vargas, who last faced Cincinnati in 2006 (note: he is 1-0 with a 5.23 ERA in two career starts against the Reds). Castillo will make his second straight start at home, after five consecutive road ones. He is coming off a loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday but one in which he allowed just two runs on nine hits while striking out seven in six innings. The outing was an encouraging one, as he had mustered only one quality start over his first six appearances. Castillo is 1-6 with a 4.02 ERA in nine career starts at Great American Ball Park entering his first career matchup against the Mets. The pick: Tonight's starting pitchers will own a combined 23.21 ERA when they take the mound tonight (over?) and it's true that the Mets are 19-3 in their last 22 meetings against the Reds, outscoring them 119-74. It's also true that Cincinnati's 8-27 mark through 35 games is the worst start in the majors since Detroit had the same record in 2003. However, I see nothing from Vargas that makes me want to back him. Meanwhile, Castillo is coming off a 3-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers last Wednesday, his best effort in a disappointing-to-date season. Make Cincy a 10* play. |
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05-07-18 | Predators v. Jets -145 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -145 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Winnipeg Jets finished the regular season three points shy of the Nashville Predators, who won this year's President's Trophy. The Jets will take teh ice tonight at home for Game 6, one victory way from advancing to the Western Conference final. The Jets were stymied in a frustrating 2-1 Game 4 loss on home ice but broke loose to take a 3-2 series lead in Saturday’s 6-2 road triumph. The top line of Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor combined for three goals and eight points, giving the Jets two shots to knock out the Predators, starting with Monday’s Game 6. Nashville got the start it wanted in Game 5, dominating play for most of the first period but could not score in the opening period, before the Jets netted four goals in the second. The loss dropped the Predators to 1-2 on home ice in the series but Nashville head coach Peter Laviolette’s team already has won one game in Winnipeg this series. Nashville: The Predators hope to repeat the recipe that led to a 2-1 victory at Winnipeg in Game 4, get an early lead and then dominate the neutral zone. “This group’s been built for a game like the one that’s coming up,” Laviolette told reporters after Saturday’s loss. “I’ve got a tremendous amount of confidence. I believe in them." However, goaltender Pekka Rinne served up another sub-par performance, allowing three goals in a 4:31 span of the second period of Game 5, to turn a 1-1 game into a 4-1 deficit. After two goals early in the third was pulled again in favor of Juuse Saros. Rinne wasn't alone, as two of Nashville’s other key players struggled in Game 5 too, as Victor Arvidsson and Austin Watson, who both finished minus-3. Then there is center Ryan Johansen, who scored his fifth goal of the playoffs in Game 5 and with 11 points is one behind F Filip Forsberg for the team lead. Winnipeg: Kyle Connor set a franchise record for most points in a playoff game by a rookie, scoring his first two goals of the postseason in the pivotal second-period stretch and assisted on Scheifele’s goal 28 seconds into the third period. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck made 38 saves on the night and a determined defense which blocked 16 shots, survived a 20-shot onslaught by Nashville in the third period. Forward Mathieu Perreault, who had missed the past eight games with an injury, scored a goal in his return and gave the Jets a much-needed boost. Mark Scheifele scored his ninth goal in 10 postseason games Saturday and leads the Jets with 14 points, one ahead of Wheeler's 13 (team-best 10 assists). The pick: Blake Wheeler told reporters Sunday after the Jets returned to Winnipeg that knocking out the Predators will not be easy, while adding; “What we’re focused on is what’s given us success all year long, that’s just finding a way to win one hockey game.” The Jets are as healthy as they've been all season and may just get defenseman Dmitry Kulikov back in their lineup on Monday. He has been out for the last two months with a back injury but he has been practicing in a regular-contact jersey for several days. The Jets sure don't want to go back to Nashville for a Game 7. The time to win is NOW! Winnipeg is 36-8-2 at home this season and I'll make them an 8* play. |
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | Top | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team here in 2018, after winning a franchise-best 59 game during the regular season. In looking ahead to another matchup with Cleveland, Toronto's DeMar DeRozan said, "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with. You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Well, it's been the same old, same old so far, as once again LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the Toronto Raptors on the ropes after taking Games 1, 2 and 3. The Cavs now look to deliver yet another damaging blow in this one-sided rivalry by completing a four-game sweep Monday night at home. Toronto: LeBron James knocked down a running buzzer-beater to give his team a 105-103 victory in Game 3 on Saturday. "Our goal in the timeout was to trap him and make someone else beat us," Toronto head ach Dwane Casey told reporters of a play that will haunt him. "He split the trap and went 100 miles an hour down the floor and lost them. We just didn't execute. It was probably my fault that I didn't make it clear that we wanted to trap him and get the ball out of his hands. We had it started in the backcourt, and for whatever reason, we let him out of the trap." The Raptors couldn't contain LBJ (see more below) plus their task of winning Game 3 was made all the more difficult when leading scorer DeMar DeRozan struggled the way he did, producing just eight points (more than 15 below his average this postseason) on 3-of-12 shooting. That led to a benching of DeRozan during a critical portion of the fourth quarter. "It's extremely hard, extremely hard," DeRozan told reporters of sitting on the sidelines while his teammates made a late push. "I just want to be out there helping my team, way more than anything. It definitely sucks to be watching ... we've got to give credit to those guys. We fought hard and gave ourselves a chance to win." The Raptors made Game 3 close behind the efforts of Kyle Lowry, who scored 15 of his 27 during the comeback. Lowry is averaging 22 points on 62.9 percent shooting in the series. Cleveland: LeBron James is putting on a display this postseason that will be talked about for ages. The game-winner on Saturday capped a 38-point effort for the superstar, who is averaging 34.8 points on 54.7 percent shooting to go along with 9.5 rebounds and 8.8 assists during the playoffs. "I've been doing that since I was like six, seven, eight years old," James told reporters of his latest clutch moment. "Maybe even before that. There's a picture floating around of me beside a Little Tikes hoop with a saggy Pamper on and I was doing it back then and all the way up until now, at 33." However, maybe even more important for Cleveland's long-term outlook this spring, was the second straight solid game for big man Kevin Love, who had 21 points on 7-of-14 shooting and 16 rebounds (he had 31 & 11 in Game 2). The pick: Teams that fall behind 0-3 in the playoffs are 0-129 in NBA history, giving Toronto virtually insurmountable odds to come out on top against a team it cannot seem to solve. However, we are talking ONLY about Game 4 here and the Raptors can lose and still "get the cash! I noted before Game 3 in taking the Raptors that Cleveland did win both regular-season meetings at home with the Raptors but those wins came by a total of just nine points. Also, the Cavs were 0-4 ATS at home this postseason and a 'money-burning' 13-31-1 ATS at home on the year. After Toronto's Game 4 cover, the updated numbers for Cleveland are 0-5 ATS at home this postseason and a 'money-burning' 13-32-1 ATS at home on the year. Take the points and make Toronto a 10* play. |
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05-07-18 | Mets v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets opened the season 11-1 but the losses, both on and off the field, are piling up. The Mets finished a wretched homestand with Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Rockies. New York opened last week by getting swept by the Braves and then got swept by the Rockies. After an 0-6 homestand, the Mets head out on the road at 17-15 to begin a six-game road trip beginning with the first of three against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. The Mets were outscored 34-11 during a disastrous 0-6 homestand and have now dropped 14 of their last 20 after a blistering 11-1 start to the season. More bad news is that Yoenis Cespedes left Sunday's 3-2 loss to Colorado due to soreness in his right quadriceps and told reporters he was unsure of his availability for the series opener in Cincinnati. Also, Jacob deGrom, who was expected to start Monday for New York, was placed on the 10-day disabled list to allowed more time to rest his hyperextended elbow. The good news for the Mets is that their opponent the next three games is the sad-sack Cincinnati Reds, who are tied with Baltimore for the worst record in the majors at 8-26. The pitching matchup: P.J. Conlon (NR) will make his major league debut for the Mets and go up against Homer Bailey (0-4, 4.81 ERA). Conlon was recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas to make his major league debut and he'll also go into the history books, becoming the first Irish-born player to reach the bigs since 1945. With deGrom expected to start next Sunday at Philadelphia, it figures to be a one-game audition for Conlon, who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts this season at Las Vegas. He has allowed only one HR but opponents are batting .310 against him. Bailey owns two career no-hitters but is 66-67 in his career with a 4.43 ERA. He endured some hard-luck losses at the outset of the season after registering three quality starts in his first four outings but he has regressed over the past two weeks. After a pair of no-decisions, he was tagged for five runs on six hits over five innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Bailey, who has surrendered six HRs over his last three starts. Bailey is 0-4 and the Reds 0-7 in all of his 2018 starts minus-$700 vs. moneyline mark. Bailey is 1-4 with a 6.49 ERA lifetime versus New York. The pick: At first blush, with these two starters, one could say "over" fairly easily. However, the Mets come off an 0-6 homestand being held to two runs or fewer five times, including three shutouts. As for the Reds, they average 3.91 RPG (24th) plus rank 25th in OPS (.684) and 28th in HRs (27). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-07-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics needed seven games to dispatch the Bucks in the opening round, as the home team won all seven games. Meanwhile, "The Process" was coming to fruition with the 76ers taking care of the Heat in five games. Making things look even worse for Boston was the fact that not only were the Celtics without Kyrie Irving (not to mention Hayward) but they had to open this best-of-seven series with Jaylen Brown injured. He had been Boston's top scorer against the Bucks, until getting sidelined during the team's Game 7 win over Milwaukee. Brown sat out Game 1 of this series but Boston was able to win that game with ease, 117-101. Then, with Brown coming off the bench in Games 2 and 3, the Celtics were able to rally from a 22-point deficit to beat the 76ers 108-103 in Game 2 plus earn an OT at Phiily in Game 3. The Celtics will now take a commanding 3-0 lead into Game 4, as the 76ers look to avoid a four-game sweep. Boston: The Celtics received 24 points from rookie Jayson Tatum while Al Horford scored the final five points of the game as they earned a stunning 101-98 overtime victory Saturday. Philly's Marco Belinelli’s jumper with less than a second left in the fourth quarter caused confetti to fill the air at the Wells Fargo Center, but his foot was inside the 3-point line and it only tied the game, then Boston rallied in overtime to win. The veteran Horford scored seven of his 13 points in overtime and had a key steal in the final seconds that snuffed out a chance for Philadelphia to win the contest. Tatum is averaging 24.3 points in the series and guard Terry Rozier continues to shine while leading the team in scoring during the playoffs at 19.0 PPG. Philadelphia: Joel Embiid scored 22 points and grabbed 19 rebounds (he's now registered five straight double-doubles in the playoffs) but the 76ers shot just 39.2 percent from the floor on Saturday, while turning the ball over in key situations. Rookie PG Ben Simmons did rebound from his 'ugly' Game 2 performance (one point, five turnovers) to score 16 while recording eight rebounds and eight assists in Saturday’s setback. “I have a lot of growing to do,” Simmons told ESPN.com. Shooting guard J.J. Redick is averaging 20.3 points in the series but PF Dario Saric is 5-of-23 from three-point range in the last five games, after draining 11-of-23 in the first three playoff contests. SF Robert Covington had just one point in Saturday’s loss, going 0-fo-8 from the floor. The pick: Philly is well aware that a series win is highly unlikely. It's been well documented that all 129 teams have failed to win a series after falling behind 0-3. However, this Philadelphia team has had a terrific season and I see them "winning one for the Gipper" here in Game 4. Yes, the 76ers are just 2-2 SU & ATS this postseason at home but they finished the regular season on a 21-1 SU run at home, going 17-5 ATS. Lay the points and make Philly an 8* play. |
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05-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +6 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets put their Game 2 loss at home to the Jazz behind themselves with an impressive display of basketball in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal series at Salt Lake City . The Jazz upset the Rockets 116-108 in Game 2 as an 11-point underdog to temporarily wrest home-court advantage from the top-seeded Rockets. However, Houston answered in convincing fashion when the series shifted to Utah, opening a 30-point halftime lead and cruising from there to a 113-92 victory. James Harden scored 25 points and handed out 12 assists, while Eric Gordon added 25 points off the bench (he had totaled only 22 points in Games 1 and 2, combined). Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell has taken a leadership roll for Utah this postseason but scored just 10 points on 4-of-16 shooting. Houston now looks to take a 3-1 series lead when the teams meet Sunday at the Vivint Smart Home Arena. Houston: Shooting guard Eric Gordon was a big factor in Houston's turnaround, as he made 8-of-13 from the floor in Game 3, after shooting under 50 percent in each of his first seven games this postseason. Also, the All Star duo of Harden and Chris Paul combined for 18 assists against one turnover in Friday's game (Paul added 15 points). Harden is now averaging 30.4 points in the postseason, identical to his league-leading average during the regular season. Houston is also benefiting from having made 59 free throws in the first three games of the series, compared to only 39 for the Jazz. Utah: "I didn't really do much as a whole, like I wasn't there," Mitchell told the media after Game 3. "That can't happen. That will probably be what I take away the most. It's like I would have been better off just not showing up, because that's what I did. I didn't show up at all for my teammates, and I'll fix it." PG Ricky Rubio (hamstring) has been doing some agility drills and light work on the court as he approaches a potential return but Utah also has another injury concern in the form of Derrick Favors, who left Game 3 with a sprained ankle. Favors, who averaged 12.3 points on 61.7 percent shooting in the first round against Oklahoma City, told reporters he hopes to play in Game 4. The Jazz also need to get a bounce-back effort from Joe Ingles, after he followed up a 27-point effort in Game 2 with a six-point showing in Friday's loss. The pick: Houston has now won all three meetings in Utah this season by double digits. That hardly bodes well for the Jazz but don't forget how well Utah played down the stretch, going 29-6 over their last 35 regular season games. This is pretty much a "must-win" for Utah, as a comeback from 3-1 against Houston would be h highly unlikely. Take the home dog Jazz and make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-06-18 | Bruins +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bruins shocked the Lightning in Game 1 of their semifinal series, 6-2. However, Tampa Bay has won three straight since, putting Boston on the verge of elimination as the teams take the ice this Sunday afternoon at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos tied the contest in the third period of Game 4 and defenseman Dan Girardi tipped home the game-winner in overtime, as the Lightning rallied for a 4-3 victory Friday to give themselves a chance to finish their second series in five games. The Bruins have not recorded an even-strength goal since Game 2, after scoring twice with the man advantage and once short-handed during the rally that gave them a 3-2 lead in the third period Friday, before folding. Boston: Not only is Boston down 3-1 in the series but defenseman Torey Krug, who has 12 points in 11 playoff games, suffered a left ankle injury after crashing into the boards feet first on Friday. He has been ruled out for the rest of the series, perhaps giving veteran blue liner Nick Holden a spot in the lineup. Left wing Brad Marchand had a pair of assists Friday and boasts eight points in the series (17 in the postseason), but has managed only seven shots on goal overall in the four games. Left wing Rick Nash, who has five goals and four assists in his last four playoff games at Tampa Bay, scored twice in Game 1 but has been held to one assist since. Tampa Bay: The Lightning's top line is beginning to produce after a slow start to the series, as Nikita Kucherov scored on the power play and Stamkos had a goal for the second straight contest. “Our line has been talking a lot about wanting to have a better game,” Stamkos said of his unit that includes J.T. Miller. “Obviously, it’s not a matter of will. We knew eventually it was going to come.” Defenseman Victor Hedman did not have a point in the first playoff series, but has recorded five assists in the last four games against Boston to become the franchise’s postseason leader in that category (36). The pick: Here's some really good news for Lightning fans. They return home for Game 5 on Sunday afternoon at Amalie Arena with history on their side, as no Lightning team has ever blown a 3-1 lead in the playoffs and the Bruins are 0-23 in series they trailed 3-1. What's more, Boston will have to stay alive without arguably their best defenseman in Torey Krug (see above). The Lightning's quick dismissal of New Jersey in the opening round gave them a full week of rest before this series and if they can dispatch the Bruins on Sunday, they can rest again, with all the other series going at least six games. It all sounds juts "too good" for me. “Desperate hockey,” explained Boston center Patrice Bergeron of the mindset for Sunday. “You know we’ve shown character all year. You know I’ve spoken about the resilience in this room, so it’s time to show it.” Take the 1 1/2 goals and make Boston a 6* play. |
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05-06-18 | Tigers v. Royals -138 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals went to back-to-back World Series, losing in seven games to the Giants in 2014 and then beating the Mets in five games in 2015. However, that seems like 'light years' ago, as KC came into the 2018 season off back-to-back years of 81-81 and 80-82 records. Expectations were even lower entering this season and unfortunately, those low expectations have been met. The Royals opened their four-game home series with the Tigers at 8-22, having gone 0-8-2 in 10 previous series this season. KC did win the first two games of the set but a ninth-inning rally came up short in Saturday's 3-2 setback. The loss snapped their four-game home winning streak and gave the Tigers a chance to salvage a split of the series in Sunday's finale. Detroit ended a two-game skid when Shane Greene worked out of a ninth-inning jam, giving the Tigers a modest 14-18 start to the 2018 season. The pitching matchup: Detroit lefty Matthew Boyd (1-2, 2.48 ERA) takes the mound for the Tigers and will go up against KC's Jakob Junis (3-2, 3.29 ERA). This marks Boyd's sixth start of 2018 and while he owns just one win, he's pitched well. He's allowed a modest 23 hits over 29 innings, has struck out 21 and walked just eight plus opponents are batting only .217 against him. Note that over Boyd's last nine starts (dating back to September 12, 2017), he has a 2.47 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings, while opponents are hitting .204 off him in that span. Junis has recorded quality starts in four of his six outings in 2018, including a no-decision at Boston last time out. He held the Red Sox's powerful lineup to two runs with five strikeouts over six innings in a bounce-back outing after giving up five HRs in his previous start against the White Sox, a 6-3 loss. Like Boyd, Junis has been tough to hit so far this season, holding opponents to a .199 batting average in his first six starts. The pick: A closer look reveals that Boyd has struggled against the Royals, going 2-5 with a 7.05 ERA in 10 career starts against KC. In stark contrast, Junis is 4-1 with a 3.67 ERA in five games (four starts) against Detroit, including two wins this season in which he's posted a 1.20 ERA. The 'kicker' is this. Boyd owns a 10.53 ERA in five career Kauffman Stadium starts plus a 14-24 record with a 5.20 ERA in 64 games (60 starts) in the majors. Make KC a 10* play. |
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05-06-18 | Indians v. Yankees -135 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Yankees were just 9-9 through April 20 and there was plenty of any talk that the latest edition of "The Bronx Bombers" were dare we say, "underachievers ." So much for that New York has taken the first two of this weekend three-game home series with the Indians, giving them 14 wins in their last 15 games. The team's 23-10 start is its best since 2003 and the Yanks go for a home sweep of the Indians, looking to extend their home winning streak to nine games . Meanwhile, the "underachieving" 17-16 Indians have dropped six of their last nine overall. The good news for Cleveland is that they play in the AL Central, a division in which no other team owns a winning record. The pitching matchup: Mike Clevinger (2-0, 2.82 ERA) takes the mound for Cleveland and he will be opposed by New York's Domingo German (0-1, 3.77 ERA). Clevinger had a breakout season in 2017, going 12-56 (3.11 ERA) in 27 appearances (21 starts in which Cleveland went 14-7). He has made himself at home on the road by winning 10 of 15 decisions with a 3.28 ERA in 23 career away contests, including a pair of scoreless starts this season. German earned his first major-league start following four scoreless innings of relief versus Houston on May 1, after Jordan Montgomery exited with a left flexor strain after one inning. That injury is expected to sideline Montgomery for as many as two months, meaning German, who has made five relief appearances in 2018, will have an opportunity to pitch himself into the rotation. The pick: Clevinger owns impressive numbers on the road but will be severely tested by this New York lineup. The Yankees rank first in runs scored at 5,76 RPG (that number jumps to 6.61 RPG at Yankee Stadium), while ranking 3rd in OPS (.782) and HRs (43). How does one buck the Yankees here? The Yankees' 14-1 stretch is its best 15-game run since also going 14-1 from June 24 to July 12, 1998, during their 114-win season. Meanwhile, Cleveland has dropped its last four visits to New York (including the playoffs) and five straight games overall to the Yankees. The Indians are 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position in this series, so expect German's 13th major league appearance (first start) to be a "lucky 13th!" Make the Yankees an 8* play., |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team here in 2018, after winning a franchise-best 59 game during the regular season. In looking ahead to another matchup with Cleveland, Toronto's DeMar DeRozan said, "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with. You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Well, it's been the same old, same old so far, as once again LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the Toronto Raptors on the ropes after taking Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. The Cavs now look to deliver another damaging blow in the one-sided rivalry when the teams meet for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series on Saturday. Toronto: As noted, the Raptors won a franchise-record 59 games during the regular season to earn the top seed in the East for the first time but the Raptors are down 0-2 and Toronto is searching for answers as it heads to Cleveland. DeRozan had 24 points and Kyle Lowry 21, as the Raptors shot 54.3 percent as a team but they offered little resistance at the other end (the Cavs shot 59.5%) while forcing just three turnovers, giving the Cavaliers a 24-8 advantage in that category this series. Toronto has been outscored 34-8 in points off turnovers (Cleveland set a franchise record with just three turnovers in a 128-110 win in Game 2), and by 12 points in the fourth quarter. DeRozan is 0-for-13 from three-point range over his last three games, plus after putting up a double-double in Toronto's first playoff game of 2018 (23 & 12), PF Ibaka has averaged 5.9 & 5.4 over his last seven games. Cleveland: James had 43 points, eight rebounds and 14 assists in Game 2 and hasn't needed much help during the playoffs. However, he was given a boost in Game 2 with a breakout effort from big man Kevin Love. After averaging 10.9 points on 31.9 percent shooting through the first eight playoff games, the veteran had 31 points on 11-of-21 shooting in Thursday's win, plus added 11 rebounds. James has scored at least 44 points in each of his last three playoff home games, so it will be up to the Raptors to change the narrative in Game 3. The pick: Is that possible? Sure. Note that Cleveland did win both regular-season meetings at home with the Raptors but those wins came by a total of just nine points. The Cavs are 0-4 ATS at home this postseason and are now a 'money-burning' 13-31-1 ATS at home on the year. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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05-05-18 | Penguins v. Capitals -110 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Capitals own a pathetic history in the postseason overall and in particular, against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Caps immediately coughed up their home ice advantage in this year's semifinal series against the Pens by losing Game 1, 3-2. However, the Caps won Game 2 at home and then regained the home ice edge by taking Game 3 in Pittsburgh. Then again, nothing comes easy for the Caps this time of year and Pittsburgh was able to even the best-of-seven series with a 3-1 win in Game 4. The series is now down to a best-of-three and Game 5 will be played back in D.C. at the Verizon Center. Pittsburgh: The Capitals were held to 21 shots (just three in the third period) by a rejuvenated Pittsburgh defense in the Game 4 win. “I thought we defended hard,” Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters. “We made pretty good decisions with the puck. We stayed above the attack. The opportunities that we did get were off of our defense. I think it was a solid third period.” Forward Jake Guentzel continued a remarkable run for Pittsburgh with two goals in Game 4, giving him NHL bests of 10 goals and 21 points in the postseason (he has four goals and four assists in the series). Guentzel is the first player since Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier in 1988 to reach 20 points in 10 or fewer playoff games during one season. Captain Sidney Crosby is again a solid force this postseason with19 points in the playoffs. Goalie Matt Murray, who had two shutouts in the first four games of the postseason, allowed just one goal Thursday, after permitting 17 in the previous five contests. Washington: Captain Alex Ovechkin had scored in four consecutive playoff games before being held without a shot in Thursday 3-1 loss. He owns eight goals in 10 playoff contests, including five in a four-game span before Thursday. Devante Smith-Pelley moved onto the first line with Tom Wilson serving the first of a three-game suspension but did not have a shot while playing with Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Right wing T.J. Oshie snapped a four-game drought with his fourth goal of the playoffs in Game 4 on the power play, but has been held to five total shots over his last five contests. John Carlson has 10 points and Brooks Orpik boasts a plus-6 rating to lead the defense in the playoffs for Washington while goaltender Braden Holtby continues to shine with a 2.07 GAA and .924 SP after starting the postseason on the bench. The pick: "We’ve believed in ourselves all year,” Washington goalie Braden Holtby told reporters after the setback. “One game at a time. Now this game isn’t going to shake us at all. Our biggest asset has been bouncing back, either after a win or a loss. Just focus on playing our game, and that’s what we’re going to do.” Washington's Jakub Vrana is playing in just his first playoff series against the Penguins but told reporters, "Everybody knows it's a big rivalry. We kind of hate each other. We go at it and we're really pumped for the next game." Washington head coach Barry Trotz decided to bench Holtby at the start of the playoffs and it almost cost him, as the Caps lost the first two games at home vs. Columbus, a team which had never won a playoff series. However, Holtby has stabilized the defense and now it's time for Ovechkin and Co. to "put up or shut up!" My vote (bet) is that the Caps "put up" in Game 5. Make Washington a 10* play. |
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05-05-18 | Giants v. Braves -148 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants opened their three-game series in Atlanta against the Braves, playing their best baseball of the season. The Giants had won eight of their past 11 contests, moving above .500 at 16-15, for the first time since they were 4-3 back on April 7. Shortstop Brandon Crawford showed signs of life at the plate after an extended slump by snapping a 5-for-47 skid with two hits Wednesday and then collected three hits – including his third HR of the season – and drove in two runs in Friday’s 9-4 victory over the Braves, as the Giants won for the ninth time in their last 12. The loss halted an excellent run by the Braves, who had won five in a row after finishing a three-city road trip at 7-3 with a three-game sweep of the Mets at Citi Field on Thursday. The Braves absolutely dominated the Mets in that three-game road sweep, outscoring New York 21-2. Atlanta's 19-12 has them atop the NL East and puts them on pace to win 99 games this year, after averaging 71.5 wins per season the last four! The pitching matchup: Lefty Ty Blach (2-3, 4.10 ERA) thakes teh mound for the Giants up against the Braves' Brandon McCarthy (4-0, 3.09 ERA). Blach has pitched fairly well since giving up six runs in his second start of the season, posting a 3.54 ERA with 27 hits allowed in his past 28 innings over five starts, although the Giants are just 2-3. He beat the Dodgers on Sunday in his last outing, allowing two runs on six hits with one walk and four strikeouts in six innings. Blach beat Atlanta in his only career appearance, giving up two runs on six hits in 7 2/3 innings last season. Atlanta starting pitchers had not allowed more than one run in five consecutive starts, before the Giants torched Mike Foltynewicz for six runs in the second inning last night to take the series opener. McCarthy takes teh mound Saturday and he has provided the Braves even more than they had hoped for (a veteran presence in the rotation). He began the weekend tied for second in the NL in wins, after holding Philadelphia to one run on five hits with six strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings last Sunday, the third time in his past four starts he has allowed one run. However, he is just 1-3 with a bloated 7.34 ERA in seven career games (five starts) against the Giants. The pick: The Giants got the best of the National League East-leading in the series opener but let's not sell the Braves short. They rank second in all of MLB in runs scored at 5.68 per game, while ranking first in both team BA (.275) and OPS (.799). What's more, the Atlanta lineup has to be mna]made better by the addition of veteran slugger Jose Bautista. The 37-year-old former two-time American League home run champion doubled in his first at-bat for the Braves on Friday against San Francisco and will be back at third base for the middle game of the series on Saturday. "It makes (our lineup) that much longer," Braves manager Brian Snitker said of Bautista's addition. "Don't think people in that other dugout aren't aware of this guy when he's up there? I knew we were when he was playing against us the last few years." Make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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05-05-18 | Dodgers -185 v. Padres | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -185 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Dodgers and SD Padres opened a three-game series in Monterrey, Mexico on Friday (San Diego is the designated home team), with the Dodgers recording the first combined no-hitter in franchise history. Walker Buehler and three relievers opened the series by delivering the Dodgers’ 23rd no-hitter in Friday's 4-0 victory. Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez homered for Los Angeles, which has allowed a total of three runs during its three-game winning streak. The Dodgers will be without left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu until at least the All-Star break due to a severe groin strain, but Buehler already has proven to be a capable replacement, giving up a total of two runs over 16 innings in his first three starts. The Padres have now dropped 12 of their last 16 games and clearly miss Wil Myers, who landed on the disabled list for the second time this season last week with a strained left oblique. Eric Hosmer had his five-game hitting streak come to an end Friday. The 11-22 Padres are already 10 1/2 games back of the first-place Diamondbacks in the NL West. The pitching matchup: Kenta Maeda (2-2, 3.76 ERA) goes for LA and Bryan Mitchell (0-3, 6.07 ERA) for San Diego. Clearly, Maeda has a tough act to follow. He struggled with his command in Sunday’s 4-2 loss to San Francisco after entering the game with a total of six walks in his first five starts. He exited after allowing four runs on five hits - including a three-run HR by Evan Longoria in the first - and four walks in six innings. Maeda worked 5 2/3 innings and notched the win against San Diego on April 18, improving to 4-3 with a 4.72 ERA in 10 career games (nine starts) versus the Padres. Mitchell still is seeking his first win as a Padre after giving up four runs over 4 2/3 innings in Monday’s 14-2 loss to the New York Mets. He has failed to impress since being acquired from the New York Yankees during the offseason, issuing 23 walks over 29 2/3 innings in his first six starts (team is 1-5). “I think I’ve made improvements,” Mitchell told reporters. “The numbers may not reflect that, but I can tell the ball’s coming out of my hand better and the pitches are better.” The pick; I/m not sur just which "improvements' Mitchell is talking about. The Dodgers have won five straight NL West titles but have struggled early on (15-17 record has them six games back of the D'backs) but as noted, LA has won three straight (pitching staff has allowed only three runs all told) and should begin to get things straightened out. Another game with the Padres in Mexico (with the struggling Mitchell on the hill), seems like a pretty good opportunity to make it four in a row. Make LA a 6* play. |
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05-04-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -142 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Western Conference semifinal between the Vegas Golden Knights and the San Jose Sharks began with a Vegas 7-0 beatdown in Game 1. However, the Sharks have won two of three since, with their decisive 4-0 victory on Wednesday tying the series at two apiece. San Jose head coach Peter DeBoer lamented the fact that his team had been continually playing from behind and "chasing the game the whole series," but the Sharks struck twice in the opening period of Game 4 and never looked back. The Golden Knights lost for only the second time in eight postseason games on Wednesday and were blanked for the first time since Feb. 19. The teams now back to Las Vegas with the series narrowed to a best-of-three, with two of those (if necessary) to be held at raucous T-Mobile Arena. San Jose: There had been speculation that veteran center Joe Thornton would play for the first time since Jan. 23 due to the uncertain status of Joonas Donskoi, who returned from a one-game absence and supplied a back-breaking goal in the final seconds of the opening period. Fourth-line forward Marcus Sorensen registered only five goals in 32 regular-season games but opened the scoring Wednesday and is tied for second on the team with four goals in eight playoff contests. "All four lines played really good,” said Tomas Hertl, who netted his team-leading fifth goal of the postseason. “Everyone is scoring, not just one line." San Jose has scored 10 power-play goals in eight postseason games and Hertl has scored a goal in five of the last seven playoff games. Vegas: The Golden Knights' No. 1 line of William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith was finally shut down in Game 4, combining for 11 shots on net after amassing 19 points through the first three meetings. Howeveer, Vegas feels confident that trio will be just fine in Game 5. The same can be said for goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. Yes, San Jose has pierced the Golden Knights for 11 goals in the last three games but the team has few concerns over the play of Fleury, who notched three shutouts in the first five games of the playoffs. The pick: The expansion Vegas Golden Knights swept their first-ever playoff series with the Los Angeles Kings, then opened the second round of the Western Conference playoffs with a stunningly lopsided 7-0 victory over the San Jose Sharks. However, the Sharks won Game 2 in double overtime 4-3, and bounced back from a 4-3 overtime loss in Game 3 to blank the Golden Knights 4-0 on Wednesday night to even the best-of-seven-series at 2-2. "Nobody thought it was going to be an easy series either," Vegas netminder Marc-Andre Fleury said. "We're in good shape 2-2, going home and obviously it (stinks) to lose this one. ... Put it behind and get ready for the next one." The fact is, Vegas is 32-11-2 on its home ice this season and I'll make them an 8* play in this critical Game 5. |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 232 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Arguably, no team was more impressive in the first round than the New Orleans Pelicans. They swept the 3rd-seeded Trail Blazers 4-0, going 4-0 ATS as well. Anthony Davis averaged 33 points on 57.6 percent shooting and 11.8 rebounds in the four-game sweep, while guards Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo plus power forward Nikola Mirotic were keys to an offense that clicked on all cylinders. After a 97-95 win in Game 1, the Pelicans averaged 120.3 PPG in taking the final three games against Portland. Holiday averaged 27.8-4.0-6.5, Rondo 11.2-7.5-13.2 and Mirotic 18.2 & 9.5 for the series. Golden State ran out to a 3-0 lead against the Leonard-less Spurs (also 3-o ATS) in the first round, before losing Game 4 and then taking Game 5 to close out the series in a non-cover. The Warriors opened this series with 123-101 win and then with Steph Curry back for Game 2, won a more competitive contest, 121-116. Curry had injured his left knee on March 23 but returned to action on Tuesday when he scored 28 points off the bench. However, he will be back in the starting lineup when the Warriors visit the New Orleans Pelicans in Friday's Game 3. The Pelicans are well aware they have their backs against the wall but are encouraged by the fact their Game 2 showing was much better than the Game 1 loss. "We played well the whole game but I think we got our rhythm back," guard Jrue Holiday told reporters. "We got our groove back. Maybe just a couple things. Golden State: Head coach Steve Kerr told reporters Curry will start in Game 3 and also indicated he will play more than the 27 minutes he received in Game 2. Curry didn't appear to be rusty as he drained five three-pointers and collected seven rebounds in a strong effort that helped the Warriors take a 2-0 series lead Power forward Draymond Green fell one rebound short of his second straight triple-double and is averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds and 11.5 assists in the series, as well as 13.3-11.4-9.0 in the postseason. As expected with Curry out, K.D (28.0-8.9-5.0) and Thompson (21.4 PPG on 43.1% shooting from the three-point line) have risen to the occasion. New Orleans: Anthony Davis is averaging 23 points (10 less than against Portland) and 12.5 rebounds through the first two games but New Orleans may need an explosion from him in Game 3, similar to the 47-point effort he posted in the final game of the first-round series against the Trail Blazers. Holiday was solid with 24 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in Game 2 after struggling to 11 points on 4-of-14 shooting in the opener. Point guard Rajon Rondo continued his strong postseason showing with 22 points and 12 assists in Game 2 and he is averaging 12.7 points and 12.7 assists in six playoff games. The pick: These teams met in the 2015 postseason (AD's only other playoff experience), with the Warriors sweeping the Pelicans but going just 1-3 ATS. Now it's six consecutive playoff wins for the Warriors over the Pelicans but still, only a 2-4 ATS mark. I expect the Pelicans to come up big in this "must-win" situation but I'm not sold on the idea that New Orleans is capable of winning. The total remains VERY high and I think the Pelicans realize that trying to beat Golden State at its own game is fruitless. I'm making the Under a 10* play. |
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05-04-18 | Giants v. Braves -127 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -127 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Atlanta Braves have have won five in a row after finishing a three-city road trip at 7-3 with a three-game sweep of the Mets at Citi Field on Thursday. The Braves absolutely dominated the Mets in that three-game road sweep, outscoring New York 21-2 and they now lead the NL with 172 runs scored (5.77 per ranks 2nd in MLB) along with a plus-57 run differential. Thursday’s 11-0 rout. of the Mets pushed Atlanta's record to 19-11, putting them on pace to win 100 games this year, after averaging 71.5 wins per season the last four! The Braves return home for a three-game series with the SF Giants, who have won of eight of their past 11 contests, moving above .500 at 16-15, for the first time since the Giants were 4-3 back on April 7. The pitching matchup: The Giants turn to Chris Stratton (2-2, 3.90 ERA) in Friday's series opener, while the Braves counter with Mike Foltynewicz (2-1, 2.53 ERA). Stratton last took the mound last Saturday in the opener of Saturday’s doubleheader against Los Angeles Dodgers. He had allowed more than two earned runs just once in his first five starts before that game but got rocked six runs on six hits with four walks in just 1 1/3 innings. That effort was in complete contrast to him going 2-0 in his three previous outings (Giants were 3-0), giving up just three ERs on 10 hits with 17 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings (1.31 ERA). Stratton made two relief appearances against Atlanta in 2016, not allowing a run in two innings. Foltynewicz has yet to give up more than two ERs in any of his six starts this season. He held Philadelphia to one on three hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a 4-1 victory last Saturday. Foltynewicz is 2-2 in five career starts against the Giants with a 4.45 ERA. The pick: The Giants and Braves are two of the hottest teams in the National League as they get set to meet Friday night and with the Braves in first place for the first time past April since 2014, their fans finally get a chance to see one of the reasons why in a home uniform. The Braves are a disappointing 2-4 in Foltynewicz's six starts in 2018 but that should (will?) change, as he not only owns a 2.52 ERA but he is also holding opponents to a .209 average this season. He's pitching too well for a team that ranks first in BA (.277) and OPS (.802) to not start winning. Make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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05-04-18 | Blue Jays -142 v. Rays | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Rays get set to host the Toronto Blue Jays tonight at Tropicana Field as the two AL East rivals begin a three-game series. The 13-16 Rays had Thursday off to absorb a series loss at the Detroit Tigers (Detroit took two of three), while the Blue Jays played 20 innings while splitting a doubleheader in Cleveland that ended just before midnight. The pitching matchup: Lefty J.A. Happ (4-1, 3.50 ERA) will get the start for Toronto while Tampa Bay, which continues to battle multiple injuries in its starting rotation, will get a spot start from right-hander Andrew Kittredge, after the team had initially indicated rookie Ryan Yarbrough would start. Kittredge is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA in 2018. Happ didn't come close to repeating his excellent season of 2016 last year but he's off to a strong starts in 2018. He has at least eight strikeouts in each of his last five starts and fanned nine in seven strong innings while defeating Texas his last time out. He has quality starts in three of his last four outings and while he's not yet back to the form that saw him go 20-4 in 2016, he's beginning to make a believer of me. That said, he is just 3-3 with a 5.08 ERA in 14 games (13 starters) versus Tampa Bay, including a 6.27 ERA in eight career games (seven starts) at Tampa Bay. Kittredge pitched one scoreless, hitless inning Tuesday and again Wednesday, throwing 12 and 11 pitches, so it will literally be a bullpen day for the Rays, with Kittredge capped at about 30 pitches according to the Tampa Bay Times. Kittredge has faced Toronto once in his two years in the majors, when he threw 1 2/3 innings of scoreless, one-hit relief in August in a 7-6 loss to the Jays. The pick: Sure, Tampa Bay has won its last four at home and the Rays figure to have a definitive advantage in terms of rest (see above). However, it's hard to be confident of Tampa's pitching rotation for this game. Yarbrough had been sent to Triple-A Durham on Sunday, only to be recalled when Yonny Chirinos went on the disabled list with a forearm strain. Kittredge has now been announced as a replacement after Wednesday's game. Kittredge and Co. will face a Toronto lineup averaging 5.41 RPG and leading all of MLB with 48 HRs. Toronto is a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Predators v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators were just the 8th-seed out of the West last season but made a run all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals before falling in six games to the Penguins, who won a second straight title. The Preds built on last season's playoff run and won the Presidents' Trophy this season with 117 points. However, Nashville promptly lost its home ice edge in Game 1 against Winnipeg, with the Jets skating to a 4-1 victory. The Preds needed two OTs to win Game 2 and went to Winnipeg tied one-all. With a three-goal first period lead, there can be little doubt that many members of the Predators were convinced it was just a matter of 40 minutes until they reclaimed home-ice advantage in their second-round playoff series against the Jets. However, the unfathomable happened, as the Winnipeg Jets did not panic when they fell behind by three goals. The Jets scored three times in a 2:51 span of the second period en route to a 7-4 victory in Game 3, riding two goals each from Dustin Byfuglien and Blake Wheeler to take a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series. The resulting offensive breakthrough has put them in position to take control of the Western Conference semifinals entering Thursday’s Game 4 at home. Nashville: "We stopped playing, clear as day,” Nashville defenseman Ryan Ellis told the media afterward. “You could see that, and you can’t win hockey games when you stop playing midway through the second.” Goals from Mike Fisher, P.K. Subban and Austin Watson staked the Predators to the early advantage but Nashville only put 18 shots on goal in the final two periods and were outshot 45-30 on the night. Forward Filip Forsberg tied the game in the third period at 4-4 with his fifth goal of the playoffs but the Jets scored the final three goals of the game. The Predators were penalized five times in the final 20 minutes and goaltender Pekka Rinne, who drew a slashing penalty out of frustration with 4:29 left, made 38 saves but gave up four goals on 16 shots in the second period. Winnipeg: "Nobody panicked,” Jets defenseman Jacob Trouba told reporters in referencing a 3-0 Nashville lead after the first period, adding that Winnipeg coach Paul Maurice simply told his players during intermission to, “just go play hockey.” Center Mark Scheifele continues to shine, picking up two assists to give him 11 points (seven goals) in his past five games. Byfuglien finished with a three-point night and has five in the series, while Wheeler and center Paul Stastny (one goal, two assists) also collected three points as Winnipeg pounded Nashville with 35 shots in the final 40 minutes. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck gave up three goals in the opening period Tuesday and has surrendered nine in the past two games. However, he settled down in stopping 18 of Nashville’s final 19 shots. The pick: Winnipeg is one goal in double-overtime (Game 2) away from holding a 3-0 series lead, while the more experienced Predators have not only lost home ice advantage for now, but also lost their composure by taking three minors in the final nine minutes Tuesday. We've seen back-to-back games with finals of 5-4 and 7-4 but in this critical game, expect none of that. Each team features a Vezina Trophy finalist, Pekka Rinne of the Predators and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Red Sox -140 v. Rangers | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Rangers open a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas on Thursday. In contrast, this four-game series begins a 10-game road trip for the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox took two of three against one last-place club in Kansas City (AL Central) and get set to face another in Texas (AL West), as the owners of MLB's best record (22-8). The Rangers were crushed 12-4 at Cleveland on Wednesday to finish 3-3 on a six-game road trip and return home where they are just 4-12 (12-20 overall). The pitching matchup: Boston will send left-hander David Price (2-3, 3.78 ERA) to the mound on Thursday to oppose Texas lefty Mike Minor (2-1, 4.33 ERA). Price opened the season by tossing 14 scoreless innings in his first two starts,but he has been knocked around in losing each of his last two outings. He was reached for four runs on nine hits in a season-high 7 2/3 innings at Oakland on April 22 before Tampa Bay battered him for six runs over 5 2/3 innings last time out. Price is 4-5 with a 5.11 ERA in 14 career starts against Texas. Minor has been shaky on the road but solid at home, posting a 1-1 mark and allowing four runs in his three starts at Globe Life Park (2.25 ERA). He earned a 6-4 win at Toronto last time out, despite yielding four runs on nine hits over six innings, after pitching 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball in a no-decision in his previous outing versus Seattle. Minor has made six appearances (two starts) against the Red Sox, going 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA. The pick: Minor has pitched well at home but it's a small sample size (three outings). However, Texas (as noted) is just 4-12 at home to open the season, allowing 6.06 RPG. That hardly bodes well with the Red Sox coming to town, as Boston is 11-4 on the road in 2018 plus ranks second in both runs scored (5.67 per) and team BA (.272), while ranking first in OPS (.793). Yes, the Rangers won the last meeting against Boston at home on July 5 but that ended a six-game winning streak in the series in which the Red Sox had amassed 55 runs (9.17 per)! Make Boston a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team in 2018, as the teams met for Game 1 of this year's Eastern Conference semifinal series. If Game 1 is an indication, nothing much has changed. LeBron James and his Cleveland Cavaliers once again got the better of the Toronto Raptors, winning 113-112. The Cavaliers will now attempt to maintain their postseason dominance over the Raptors with a chance tonight to take a commanding 2-0 series lead, before heading back home for Games 3 and 4. Cleveland: LBJ recorded his 21st career playoff triple-double (26-11-13) as Cleveland erased a 13-point deficit in the second half and survived multiple chances for the Raptors to win late in regulation and again in the closing seconds of overtime. JR Smith (20) and Kyle Korver (19) came up big for the Cavs, who never once led in regulation. The Cavs take the court tonight having won nine of 11 playoff meetings with the Raptors over the last three postseasons. One reason being, that Cleveland has hit at least 13 three-pointers in all five playoff games against Toronto over the last two seasons. Toronto: "A lot of things, we did to ourselves," head coach Dwane Casey told the media after the game. "I think we're a better team. We just didn't make the shots down the stretch. I know it sounds simplistic, but we had our open looks, had our opportunities, that we didn't cash in on, and some other things we could clean up defensively." Toronto has certainly heard all the talk of being owned by Cleveland and it seemed to lose its mental edge when the Cavaliers made things tight down the stretch on Tuesday. That said, center Jonas Valanciunas had 21 points and 21 rebounds to become the first player in franchise history with at least 20 points and 20 rebounds in a postseason game. However, the Raptors also committed 14 turnovers that led to 21 points for Cleveland, while forcing just six TOs. The pick: The Raptors changed their approach in Game 1, trying for a more balanced attack and creating an athletic and effective bench. Why not, after being eliminated two years in a row by the Cleveland Cavaliers? However, the more things change, the more they stay the same. For as much as the Raptors controlled Game 1 at the Air Canada Centre, they could not close it out (note: the Raptors missed their final 11 field goal attempts in regulation!) and the Cavaliers eked out a 113-112 overtime victory. The Raptors shot 32.1 percent from beyond the arc (9-for-28) and while they shot 42.9 percent (39-for-91) from the floor overall, they shot only 20.8 percent (9-for-24) in the fourth quarter. I had Cleveland in Game 1 and will take the points again here, in Game 2. Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets opened 2018 at 11-1 and have spent most of the season's opening five weeks atop the National League East. However, after dropping the first two of a three-game home series against the Atlanta Braves, they are now 'looking up' at the surprising 18-11 Braves in the division. Surprising actually understates what the Braves have done early on in 2018, as the team's current record puts them on pace to win 100 games this year, after averaging 71.5 wins per season the last four! The Braves have won the first two games, including Wednesday night, when Jason deGrom suffered a hyperextended right elbow while batting in the bottom of the third inning and left after tossing four scoreless innings in Atlanta's 7-0 victory. The Mets will likely learn Thursday just how seriously ace right-handed pitcher Jacob deGrom is hurt (more on that later). Getting back to the Braves, last night's win was the team's fourth in a row, moving them into first place in the NL East, a half-game ahead of the Mets. The pitching matchup: Mets lefty Jason Vargas (0-1, 22.09 ERA) is scheduled to face the Braves' Julio Teheran (1-1, 4.50 ERA) in the finale of this three-game series this afternoon at Citi Field. Vargas won a career-best 18 games and was an All-Star for the first time last season with Kansas City. He cashed in by signing a two-year, $16 million deal over the winter and figures to eventually be the No. 3 starter behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The veteran underwent surgery on his hand back on March 20 (he suffered a broken right hand on March 16) and returned to the mound in his season debut Saturday, when he gave up nine runs over 3 2/3 innings as the Mets fell to the San Diego Padres 12-2. Vargas is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against the Braves but has not faced them since 2006. Teheran didn't factor into the decision last Friday, when he gave up three runs over three innings as the Braves lost to the Philadelphia Phillies 7-3. He left because of tightness in his right upper trapezius but felt fine while throwing this week. Teheran is 8-5 with a 2.44 ERA in 21 games (20 starts) against the Mets in his career. The pick: The Mets are 9-5 in games started by deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, who have combined to post a 2.46 ERA. However, New York is a more modest 8-6 when anyone else starts with the quartet of Vargas, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler combining to post a 5.93 ERA. Vargas will be facing an Atlanta lineup which leads all of MLB with a .273 team BA, while ranking third in both runs scored (5.55 per) and OPS (.787). The news has been pretty good lately for the Braves, who are in first place for the first time since April 14, 2015. Atlanta has gotten off to a hot start despite facing eight ace-caliber starters -- deGrom, Syndergaard, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish. Jose Quintana and Aaron Nola -- 12 times in the first 29 games. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-02-18 | Orioles v. Angels -143 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels opened the 2018 season 13-3 but quickly fell into a tailspin by dropping nine of their next 12 games. However, they halted their four-game slide last night with a 3-2 victory in the series opener against the Baltimore Orioles. Los Angeles squandered a two-run lead in the top of the ninth inning on Tuesday but Justin Upton singled home the decisive run in the bottom of the inning for the one-run win. The Angels have now won just four of their last 13 games and at 16-13, have slipped to third place in the American League West. Baltimore had slugger Mark Trumbo (quadriceps) in the lineup for the first time this season but he was hitless in four at-bats with two strikeouts. Manny Machado recorded two hits for the fourth time in his last five games to raise his major league-leading average to .366 but to no avail, as the Orioles have dropped seven of their last nine contests, tying them with the KC Royals for the AL's worst record at 8-21. The pitching matchup: Dylan Bundy (1-3, 2.97 ERA) takes the mound for the Orioles and he'll be opposed by the Angels' Andrew Heaney (0-1, 6.91 ERA). Bundy was 'lit up' in a 9-5 loss to Tampa Bay in his last outing, as he allowed eight runs - seven earned - and 11 hits in just 4 2/3 innings. That was quite a departure, as he had been superb over his first five outings of 2018, giving up just five ERs during the stretch (1.42 ERA ) while yielding five hits or fewer on four occasions. Bundy is 1-0 with a 6.48 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against the Angels. Heaney allowed two runs - one earned - and five hits in five innings of a no-decision against the New York Yankees in his last outing. The 26-year-old struck out nine batters, the second-best total in his career and he has 22 Ks in just 14 1/3 innings this season. Heaney owns a 7.59 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore. The pick: Bundy and Heaney have plenty in common. They are both former first-round draft picks from the state of Oklahoma and each has also had Tommy John surgery in the past five years. The Angels stumbled after a quick start but they are in way better shape than the Orioles, who are off to their worst start since 2010. After going 29-52 on the road in 2017 (with MLB's second-worst road moneyline mark of minus-$1989), Baltimore is off the the worst road start of any MLB team in 2018, going 3-11 away from Camden Yards. Make the Angels an 8* play. |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: As great as LBJ is, most believe that James Harden will win this year's MVP award. No one will get any arguments from the Utah Jazz. Harden scored 41 points in Houston's series-opening 110-96 victory to continue his season-long assault of the Jazz. He averaged 34.3 points in four meetings with the Utah in the regular season, including a 56-point outing, and the defensive-minded Jazz once again had no answers on slowing down the MVP candidate. Defensively, the Jazz were overrun by the Rockets' exceptional three-point shooting (17 for 32) and victimized early by some leaky transition defense. The Jazz lacked energy in the first half following a short turnaround from the completion of their first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder less than 48 hours prior to tip-off. However, Utah isn't fretting over the Game 1 loss as it also lost the opener of its first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder before recovering to win in six games. Utah: The Jazz were inundated with a number of causes behind their Game 1 loss but it all starts with the team missing starting PG Ricky Rubio (hamstring). Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell and veteran swingman Joe Ingles produced five assists each plus Utah received steady play from guards Dante Exum an Alec Burks off the bench. However, the Jazz missed Rubio's ball-handling skill and passing acumen. Mitchell picked up a large portion of the ball-handling and he committed four turnovers to go with 9-of-22 shooting while scoring 21 points in the opener. Mitchell's point total was his lowest in seven games this postseason (27.4 PPG this postseason) and he was also hampered by a sore ankle, although he insists won't be a problem in Game 2. The Jazz also missed the defensive presence of center Rudy Gobert, despite the fact that Gobert logged 35 minutes in the Game 1 loss. A Defensive Player of the Year candidate and league leader by a healthy margin in defensive real plus-minus, Gobert was a non-factor on that end, failing to record a block for the first time this postseason and just the eighth time overall. Gobert averaged 2.3 blocks and ranked second in the NBA in block percentage (6.0), yet the Rockets had success attacking the rim with Gobert stationed there to defend it, shooting 8 of 9 with Gobert within three feet of the rim. Gobert finished with 11 points and nine rebounds Houston: Harden received complementary help in Game 1 from PG Chris Paul (17 points), center Clint Capela (16 points, 12 rebounds) and forward PJ Tucker (15 points) in the opener. However, reserve SG Eric Gordon, who averaged 18.0 PPG during the regular season, missed all six of his shots in Game 1 and is shooting just 31.4 percent from the floor in the postseason while averaging a modest 12.5 PPG. The pick: The Rockets have been the NBA's best team so far this regular and postseason but head into this game just 20-24-1ATS on their homecourt. It remains unclear whether Rubio will return later in the series but I will back Utah (with some big points) in this Game 2, as the Jazz are 33-9 SU over their last 42 games. Take the points and make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-02-18 | Phillies -156 v. Marlins | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Marlins opened the season going 7-18 through their first 25 games but have all of a sudden raised the outlook in South Florida on the strength of a season-high four-game winning streak. Meanwhile the Philadelphia Phillies, after starting 14-7, have seen their fortunes take a tumble with losses in four straight and six of eight overall. The 11-18 Marlins look for their first series sweep of the season on Wednesday when they wrap up the three-game set versus the visiting 16-13 Phillies. The Marlins won 2-1 last night on a walk-off single in the 10th inning and has now answered a miserable 3-15 stretch with wins in six of its last seven. In contrast, the Phillies' positive start has been dampened due in large part to an offense that has mustered just seven runs during the team's four-game skid. The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (3-1, 2.58 ERA) gets the nod for Philadelphia and Jose Urena (0-4, 4.91 ERA) will go for Miami. Nola recorded his fourth consecutive quality start and second straight victory by overcoming a bumpy start in which he allowed three runs in the first inning before tossing six scoreless frames the rest of the way in Friday's 7-3 triumph against Atlanta. However, he posted just a 1-3 mark with a 7.59 ERA and 1.59 WHIP while permitting the Marlins to bat .308 against him in 2017. Urena posted a 14-7 mark in 2017 but his rough start to 2018 continued on Friday as he was handed the hard-luck loss versus Colorado despite yielding just one run on six hits over seven innings in a 1-0 setback. In fact, he now owns an 0-5 mark in eight starts since defeating the New York Mets back on Sep. 20 of last season (note: Miami is also 0-8 in those starts!). However, Urena pitched well in a pair of outings versus Philadelphia last season, permitting three runs in a 7-4 triumph on Aug. 22 before settling for a no-decision two weeks later despite allowing one run in seven innings. The pick: Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies and Jose Urena of the Miami Marlins each earned the distinction of Staff "ace" in 2017, as each led their respective teams in wins. However, while Nola has pitched well in 2018, Urena has fallen apaart. It's true that the Marlins are playing better right now than the Phillies but I'm taking Nola over the struggling Urena in this one, as the Marlins fail to get the sweep. Make Philly an 8* play. |
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05-02-18 | Lightning v. Bruins -133 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Lightning lost 6-2 at home in Game 1 of their series with the Boston Bruins but made a strong response physically in Game 2's 4-2 win to even the Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Lightning totaled 42 hits and center Brayden Point rebounded from a rough series opener (minus-5 rating) to register a goal and three assists in Monday's victory. The Lightning have a 67-44 edge in shots over the first two games but the Bruins hope to turn those numbers around at home, where they went 31-9-5 this season, including a pair of wins against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay: Head coach Jon Cooper said he never considered taking Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson off the assignment of checking Boston’s top line after Game 1 and the trio responded by each scoring a goal Monday. However, Tampa Bay has yet to get a point from its top line of J.T. Miller, captain Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov in the series, even though the trio registered 12 shots on net combined and Miller had six hits Monday. Johnson is tied with Vincent Lecavalier for third in Tampa Bay franchise history with 24 playoff games after his goal in Monday’s win. Boston: The Bruins top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak had four assists Monday (but no goals) after posting three goals and 11 points in Game 1. However, that line should get better matchups on home ice Wednesday. Rookie defenseman Charlie McAvoy, who regularly pairs with captain Zdeno Chara, scored his first career playoff goal Monday and has four points to go along with a plus-5 rating in the first nine games of the postseason. Pastrnak leads the team in scoring during the playoffs (18 points) but was limited to one shot on goal in Game 2 and is a minus-6 in Boston’s four losses in the postseason while posting a plus-10 in the wins. Defenseman Torey Krug became the fourth Bruin to reach 10 points in the playoffs Monday and has tied his career high in the postseason last season (two goals, eight assists). The pick: The Lightning were a more-than-respectable 25-13-3 on the road during the regular season and have split two games away from home in the playoffs. However, Boston is 31-9-5 at TD Garden, including 3-1 this postseason. Boston outscored opponents 3.76-to-2.58 GPG during the regular season at home and then in taking three of four home playoff games, outscored the Maple Leafs 22-12. The Bruins won both home games against Tampa Bay in the season series and have won three straight and four of the last five -- and are 17-4-0 over the Lightning at TD Garden over the last seven years. If you want to stretch it out, the franchise has just nine wins in 54 games in Boston, including playoffs. Make the Bruins a 10* play. |
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05-01-18 | Padres v. Giants -121 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
The San Francisco Giants opened 8-12 through their first 20 games but posted a 6-5 victory in their series opener last night over the San Diego Padres, getting them over .500 at 15-14. The team has won seven of nine, including a 6-2 start to their current 10-game homestand. Their three-game series with the 10-20 Padres continues tonight. The Giants scored three runs in the first inning and then three more in the ninth to pull out the victory. Pinch hitter Nick Hundley delivered a walk-off two-run single against the team with which he began his career, giving him all six of his RBI this season over his last six contests. Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria each recorded two hits and drove in a run, with the latter improving to 5-for-13 with six RBI over his last three games. San Diego scored five times during the middle three innings to overcome its early deficit before falling apart in the ninth en route to its fifth loss in six contests. Only the 7-22 Reds own a worse record in the NL than San Diego. The pitching matchup: Tyson Ross (2-2, 3.64 ERA) gets the ball for San Diego and will be opposed by the Giants lefty Andrew Suarez (0-1, 6.75 ERA). Ross is coming off his shortest outing of the season, a four-inning effort at Colorado in which he allowed four runs on six hits and three walks en route to a 5-2 loss. He struck out to give him 31 in 29 2/3 innings this season but he has issued six of his 10 walks over his last two outings. Ross owns a 4-4 record and 3.24 ERA in nine starts and two relief appearances against San Francisco. Suarez is being recalled from Triple-A Sacramento to make the second start of his career, keeping the members of the Giants' rotation on their regular rest (San Francisco had to use two starters in a double-header against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday). He made his major-league debut on April 11, taking the loss against Arizona after allowing four runs on four hits (including two HRs) over in 5 1/3 innings. Suarez, who has gone 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in three starts for Sacramento, struck out seven and did not issue a walk to the Diamondbacks. He has never faced San Diego. The pick: Suarez will be making only his second major league start but the good news (for San Fran bettors) is that the Padres have struggled against left-handed starters this season, hitting just .217. Last night's win was not only Giants' seventh in their last nine games but it also helped take some of the sting out of them losing three of four to the Padres in San Diego earlier this season. Another win here will 'soothe that sting' even more. Make the Giants a 10* play. |
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05-01-18 | Blue Jays v. Twins -138 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -138 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays have rebounded from losing six of seven to win back-to-back games Sunday (7-2 at home over the Rangers) and then 7-5 on Monday over the Minnesota Twins. Justin Smoak and Russell Martin homered last night, as the Blue Jays increased their season total to 40, second-most in the majors. Kevin Pillar carries a five-game hitting streak (7-for-18) into Tuesday’s contest while Teoscar Hernandez has hit safely in six in a row (7-for-24) for Toronto, which is 7-1 against ALCentral opponents in the early going. Nothing seems to be going right these days for the Minnesota Twins. Monday's loss was the Twins' 10th in their last 11 games, leaving Minnesota 2-11 since center fielder Byron Buxton went on the disabled list and 9-15 overall to start what was expected to be a special season in the Twin Cities. The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (2-2, 6.00 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto, while Kyle Gibson (1-1, 3.33 ERA toes the rubber for Minnesota. Estrada has given up five runs in each of his last two starts, suffering a 5-4 loss against Boston on Thursday after managing an 8-5 road victory versus the New York Yankees on April 20. He has 23 strikeouts and nine walks over 27 innings but has served up seven HRs, four in his last two outings. Estrada is 3-2 with a 3.96 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts) against the Twins. Gibson allowed one hit and struck out 10 over six scoreless innings last time out but settled for a no-decision at New York (Twins lost 4-3). He is winless in his last four starts, permitting 10 ERs across 21 innings (4.29 ERA) since working six hitless innings in his season debut to defeat Baltimore, 6-2 at Camden Yards back on March 31. Gibson is 3-1 with a 4.95 ERA in six career starts versus the Blue Jays. The pick: Most are surprised by Minnesota's poor start but those Minnesota bats could wake up here vs. Estrada. Home runs have plagued the veteran this season, as he's allowed seven through five starts after giving up 31 in 33 starts a year ago. Toronto ranked 27th (of 30 MLB teams) in the moneyline standings last season (minus-$1775), while Minnesoat checked in fifth-best, at plus-$1148. Make the Twins an 8* play. |
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05-01-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: LBJ led the Cavs to a first-round victory over the Indiana Pacers but if took seven games. James had 45 points in the Game 7 clincher (105-101) and he's now a perfect 13-0 in opening round playoff series in his career. However, the Cavs hardly looked dominating, as the Pacers covered SIX of the seven games. LeBron averaged 34.4 PPG in the series, with only Kevin Love (11.4) joining in in double digits in scoring for the seven-game set. The Toronto Raptors are the East's top seed (won a franchise record 59 games this regular season) but also didn't have an easy time of it in the first round. Toronto took a 2-0 lead over the Wizards but WWashingtonm won Games 3 and 4 at home, before the Raptors closed them out in six games. The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseaons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors are finally the favored team and hope to play like it when the teams begin their Eastern Conference semifinals matchup Tuesday night with Game 1 in Toronto. DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 26.7 PPG vs. Washington, feels that his team is finally ready to topple Cleveland, even if the roster is roughly the same. "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with," DeRozan told reporters. "You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Cleveland: LBJ played 41.2 minutes per game in the series with Indiana, after playing all 82 games during the regular season. James, who admitted after Sunday's win that he was "burnt right now," produced 29.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 8.0 eight assists in three matchups with the Raptors during the regular season plus averaged 36 points in last year's sweep of the Raptors. Toronto: DeRozan (26.7 & 4.8 APG) and Lowry (17.2 & 8.3 APG) need to play great plus Toronto would love to see reserves Wright (10.7) and Miles (9.3) continue their solid play off the bench. Center Valanciunas (13.5 & 9.3) posted good numbers but played little during the fourth quarter for most of the series. PG Ibaka was the Game 1 star (23 & 12) but averaged a "missing in action" 6.0 PPG over the series' last five games. Toronto can't afford that. The pick: Toronto figures to have a big advantage when the teams go to their benches and the Raptors' reserves were given a big boost with the return of guard Fred VanVleet for Game 6 against Washington (he missed four games in the series due to a shoulder injury. Cleveland knows all about VanVleet's ability to provide a spark, as the second-year pro averaged 15.7 points and five assists in 25.3 minutes off the bench against the Cavaliers this season. However, this series is still about "King James," and remarkably he is showing no ill effects of his heavy workload. He's like the "Energizer Bunny." James became the NBA's career playoff leader in steals and minutes played during the first round, after he became the points leader in 2017. James ranks first in points (6,404), first in minutes played (9,415), first in steals (399), third in assists (with 1,543), sixth in games played (224), seventh in rebounds (1,993) and 19th in blocks (216) in the all-time playoff ranks. Make LBJ (I mean Cleveland) a 10* play. |
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05-01-18 | Capitals v. Penguins -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Capitals own a troubled playoff history and the 2018 postseason opened on a similar path. The Caps lost Games 1 and 2 at home vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets but they were able to rebound by winning four in a row (three in Columbus). However, Washington immediately coughed-up its home ice advantage to the Penguins in Game 1 of the teams' Eastern Conference semifinal with a 3-2 loss, after taking a 2-0 lead. That meant that in seven postseason games, including three of their four at home , the Caps had frittered away a two-goal lead four times. Washington allowed three third-period goals during a span of 4:49 in Game 1 and had to regroup quickly for Game 2. The Capitals were able to do just that, evening the series with Sunday's 4-1 triumph by ending Pittsburgh's streak of road playoff victories at six. Washington: After blowing four two-goal leads through the first seven games of the playoffs, Washington at least temporarily solved that problem. Ovechkin beat Matt Murray 1:26 into Game 2, Jakub Vrana scored on the power play later in the first period and, unlike Game 1, the Capitals made it 3-0 when Brett Connolly scored on a breakaway early in the second. Braden Holtby stopped 32 of the 33 shots he faced to frustrate the Penguins, robbing captain Sidney Crosby and linemate Jake Guentzel with sliding pad saves to continue his strong play in the postseason. The Caps have now won all three road games this postseason and seven of nine dating to last year, including two of three at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh during last year's postseason. Evgeni Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie are expected to play on Tuesday despite both sustaining minor hand injuries during the tail end of the third period in Game 2. Pittsburgh: The Penguins were without star center Evgeni Malkin for the third consecutive game because of an apparent leg injury. Headc coach Mike Sullivan said Malkin could return for Game 3 (it will be a game-time decision). The former Hart Trophy recipient centered the second line between wings Dominik Simon and Bryan Rust during Monday's practice while fellow forward Phil Kessel shuffled to the third line alongside Derick Brassard and Conor Sheary. Carl Hagelin (upper body) and Dumoulin (upper body) also are questionable to play in Game 3, with the former changing his non-contact jersey to a traditional yellow one midway into Monday's practice while the latter wore a non-contact sweater throughout. The pick: Ovechkin tied Crosby and Guentzel for the playoff lead in goals (all three have seven) with his Game 2 tally. Holtby looks good in net plus the Capitals have thwarted all five short-handed situations versus the Penguins this series, improving to a perfect 22-for-22 since Game 2 of their first-round set versus the Blue Jackets. Pittsburgh's Matt Murray has yielded seven goals on 67 shots (just an .896 SP) en route to dropping two of three home decisions in the playoffs. However, it's difficult to trust the Caps in a crucial (although not critical) Game 3. History says the Pens are the play in this one. Make Pittsburgh an 8* play. |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +3.5 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics open their seven-game series tonight at TD Garden and missing will be Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Larry Bird, Julius Erving, Kevin McHale, Hal Greer, John Havlicek and Billy Cunningham. The point being, it's a new day and new time in this rivalry. The Process" is no longer a punch line, as the 76ers won their final 16 regular season games and then eliminated the Heat handily in teh first round of teh 2018 playoffs, 4-1. As for the Celtics, the era of Pierce, Garnett and Allen had come to an end when Brad Stevens took over in 2013-14, with the Celtics going 25-57.However, that season was no more than a speed bump, as "Butler Brad" has Boston back among the Eastern Conference elite, despite battling key injuries. The Celtics needed everything they had to survive a seven-game, first-round series with the Milwaukee Bucks and their reward is an Eastern Conference semifinals matchup with one of the hottest teams in the league in the rested Philadelphia 76ers. Philadelphia: The Sixers eliminated the Heat back on April 24 and the extra rest cannot be a bad thing for star center Joel Embiid, who returned from an orbital fracture to play the final three games of the series with the Heat. He averaged 18.7 points and 10.3 rebounds in those three games and shot 8-of-14 from the floor in Game 5. JJ Redick was Philadelphia's top scorer versus the Heat with 20.0 PPG but rookie PG Ben Simmons was nothing short of "special" in his first-ever postseason series, averaging 18.2-10.6-9.0 and 2.4 steals. The Sixers have waited through years of tanking to get back to respectability and now get their latest shot at their long-time rivals. Boston: The Celtics rose to the challenge of a Game 7 (nothing new there) against the Bucks this past Saturday, shooting 53.6% in a 112-96 win. However, the big question heading into Game 1 of this series will be the status of shooting guard Jaylen Brown, who left the clincher against Milwaukee due to a hamstring injury. Brown had been Boston's top scorer through six games and hopes to not miss any time. "I was told that if we got in a pinch that he could play," head coach Brad Stevens told reporters after the win. "We decided that that was not going to happen. With hamstrings, let's see how he feels tomorrow." Brown averaged 17.9 points against the Bucks (also 4.7 RPG), just a shade behind Horford's 18.1 PPG (and team-high 8.7 RPG). Three others also average in double digits in Rozier (17.6-4.3-6.7), Tatum (15.4 & 5.3) and Morris (13.3 & 4.9). The pick: This is the NBA's top rivalry in terms of series played. The teams meet for the 20th time in what has always been the Celtics but also been the Syracuse Nationals/Philadelphia Warriors/Sixers. The rivals last met in the playoffs in 2012, when Boston won a conference semifinals matchup in seven games.However, as noted above, that was then and this is now! The Celtics won three of four meetings during the regular season, including a matchup in London on Jan. 11. No many could have imagined at the start of the 2018 playoffs that Boston would have been a home dog against the 76ers in a Game 1 matchup at Boston. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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04-30-18 | Phillies -135 v. Marlins | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The 16-11 Philadelphia Phillies open a three-game series tonight against the host 9-18 Miami Marlins. Sunday's 10-1 rout by Atlanta means the Phillies have dropped four of six overall, after losing two of three to the Braves for the third time this season. Meanwhile,the Marlins posted their fourth win in five games with Sunday's 3-0 triumph over Colorado. but the NMarlins are still playing just .333 baseball. "Early in the season, we were finding a way to lose," Miami manager Don Mattingly told reporters. "To put a couple of series in a row together, that's the only way we're going to ever get marching down the road toward respectability." The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (3-0, 1.82 ERA) gets the ball for Philly and will be opposed by the Marlins' Dan Straily (2017: 10-9, 4.26). Arrieta Signed to a three-year, $75 million deal in teh off-season but didn't put his best foot forward in his first start of the 2018 season, exiting after four innings of a no-decision versus the Miami Marlins back on April 8. However, he's won all three of his starts since, allowing just three ERs while scattering 12 hits and striking out 13 in 20 2/3 innings. Straily is coming off the disabled list to make his first start of 2018, after being sidelined with a right forearm inflammation. He struck out 12 over 13 innings during three rehab starts and looks to provide a workhorse presence for Miami after logging a team-high 181 2/3 innings last season (was 10-9 with a 4.26 ERA in 33 starts) He owns a 4-2 career mark versus Philadelphia but a less-than-desirable 5.35 ERA and 1.78 WHIP while allowing the club to bat .338 against him (??). The pick: No one can be quite sure how effective Straily will be in his 2018 debut but we do know that Arrieta, who won the Cy Young award in 2015 and the World Series in 2016 for the Cubs, has looked sharp. The Marlins aren't playing any better at home (5-10), than they are on the road (4-8). Make Philly an 8* play. |
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04-30-18 | Bruins v. Lightning -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up:The Bruinns have had an eventful last two weeks. With a chance to earn the East's No. 1 seem, Boston lost its final home game of the regular season 4-2 to the Panthers. The Bruins then let 2-0 and 3-1 leads slip away against the Maple Leafs in their opening round series, as Toronto force a Game 7. The Maple Leafs took a 4-3 lead into the third period in Game 7 at the TD Garden but Boston exploded for four final period goals for a 7-4 win. Up next for Boston was the top-seeded Lightning for Game 1 at Amelie Arena, where Tamp Bay had gone 32-10-2. The Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak line led the way to 6-2 Boston victory on Saturday. Marchand (one goal) and Pastrnak (four assists) each posted four points ,while Bergeron had two goals to go along with an assist as the trio combined for a plus-12 rating in the win. Tampa Bay finished with a 36-24 edge in shots in Game 1 but could not contain the top line and made just enough mistakes to thwart their chance to climb back in the contest after falling behind 2-0. Tampa Bay’s leading scorer Nikita Kucherov (five goals, 10 points in the playoffs) attempted eight shots in Game 1 and only two ended up on net Boston: Goalie Tuukka Rask made 34 saves in Game 1, including several big stops in the first period and with a one-goal lead later in the contest, after a subpar performance in the first round against Toronto (.899 save percentage). Left wing Rick Nash scored twice in the series opener after managing one goal in the first round and rookie defenseman Charlie McAvoy added two assists to give him three in the playoffs. Tampa Bay: The Ondrej Palat-Brayden Point-Tyler Johnson line, along with defensemen Anton Stralman and Ryan McDonagh, were matched up against the Bergeron trio in Game 1 and likely will get the job again, despite being out-played. "You dance with the one that brung you." the numbers. “We have to raise the battle level in the defensive zone,” Lightning head coach Jon Cooper told reporters. “For all the battle level we had in the offensive zone, if we turn that into the defensive zone for some of those plays, maybe they don’t go in.” The pick: Hard to imagine Boston's top line outplaying Tampa Bay's that badly again. Tampa Bay MUST slow down the trio of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand, or it won't matter much even if the Lightning do improve in other areas of the ice. "There was just some tough coverage moments where I think everything they shot went in,” Cooper told reporters. “They were opportunistic, but that’s how you win games.” This is almost a "must win" situation for Tampa Bay and they will need a better effort from goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who stopped just 18 of 23 shots on Saturday. Yes, he's just 1-4-1 in six career regular-season games against Boston but he did own a .922 save percentage versus them. He's more than capable of bouncing back and remember, Rask looked very vulnerable in the Toronto series (a reminder above). Make Tampa Bay an 8* play. |
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04-29-18 | Yankees v. Angels -115 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees sure weren't happy about being 9-9 through their first 18 games of the highly-anticipated 2018 season. However, the Yankees haven't lost a game in over a week and they look to complete a three-game sweep tonight in Anaheim against the LA Angels (on ESPN). New York scored five runs in each of the first two innings on Saturday, en route to an 11-1 triumph that extended its winning streak to eight games. New York hasn't lost since dropping an 8-5 decision in Toronto on April 20, dominating opponents during the winning streak by outscoring the competition 62-17 while allowing one run on four occasions. In contrast, the Angels' 2018 season got off to a 13-3 start but they've now lost eight of 11 overall, including seven of eight at home. The pitching matchup: CC Sabathia (1-0, 1.86 ERA) gets the nod for the Yankees and Tyler Skaggs (3-1, 2.96 ERA) for the Angels, in a battle of lefties. Sabathia's first three starts of 2018 resulted in no-decisions (Yanks were 1-2) but he is coming off his longest outing of the season, one that resulted in his first victory. He limited Minnesota to an unearned run and two hits over six innings on Tuesday in an 8-3 win. Only half of the eight runs the 37-year-old Californian has allowed this year have been earned, with three of them coming on three solo homers by Baltimore on April 6. The long-time vet has made 21 career starts against the Angels, going 9-9 with two complete games and a 3.91 ERA. Tyler Skaggs answered his worst start of the season (he allowed six runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings against Boston at home on April 18) with one of his best this past Monday. He scattered four hits over seven scoreless innings in a 2-0 victory at Houston. Skaggs has made 62 starts in his career but will be facing New York for the first time. The pick: The 17-9 Yankees have won eight in a row, matching their longest winning streak since a 10-game run in June 2012 and will trot out 2007 AL Cy Young winner CC Sabathia on Sunday, who has not allowed an earned run in his past two starts. Opposing him will be Tyler Skaggs, he of the 16-22 career record with a 4.46 ERA. That said, let it be noted that Skaggs has been matched against some of the best pitchers in the American League this season. In four of his five 2018 starts, Skaggs has been matched against Sean Manaea of the Oakland Athletics, Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians, Rick Porcello of the Boston Red Sox and Gerrit Cole of the Houston Astros. Manaea and Cole entered the weekend with the two lowest ERAs in the AL. Manea has also thrown a no-hitter this season and his four wins are tied for the AL lead among a group of nine that includes Kluber, the 2014 and 2017 AL Cy Young winner, and Porcello, the 2016 AL Cy Young winner. The Angels are 4-1 in Skaggs five starts this season and a win would make him 4-1 for the second time in his six-year major league career. I say he gets it, Make the Angels a 10* play. |
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04-29-18 | Dodgers -142 v. Giants | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -142 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers and Giants are one of MLB's great rivalries but this weekend’s series might be just as newsworthy for its injury list as it is for the actual results. Giants second baseman Joe Panik landed on the disabled list Saturday with an injured left thumb that could require surgery, and both teams could be without several starters on Sunday, when the Dodgers, who lost Friday's opener 6-4, look to salvage a split of the four-game set. Playing without Panik and left fielder Mac Williamson (concussion), the Giants opened Saturday’s doubleheader with a 15-6 loss before bouncing back with an 8-3 victory in the nightcap. Los Angeles outfielder Yasiel Puig left the opener with a sore left foot after crashing into a wall and sat out the nightcap, but X-rays were negative and he could return Sunday. Outfielder Matt Kemp left Friday’s game with a tight left quadriceps but appeared as a pinch-hitter in Saturday's nightcap. The pitching matchup: Kenta Maeda (2-1, 3.10 ERA) will start Sunday's series finale for LA and the Giants will counter with lefty Ty Blach (1-3, 4.31). Maeda will be making his fifth start (LA is 2-2 in his first four) of 2018 in this one and made his season debut against the Giants back on March 31, earning the victory after registering 10 strikeouts over five scoreless s. innings of a 5-0 final. He settled for a no-decision against Miami on Tuesday, despite allowing just one run on four hits with seven strikeouts over six innings (LA lost 3-2). Maeda is 4-1 with a 4.40 ERA in seven career games (six starts) versus San Francisco. Blach worked five scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over the Dodgers back on March 29 but hasn't won since. He recovered from a case of food poisoning in time to face Washington on Tuesday and gave up three runs in four innings of a 4-3 LA win. He owns a 3-2 record and 1.90 ERA in nine career games (six starts) against Los Angeles. The pick: Blach has a nice history against the Dodgers but it's hard to get too excited about playing San Francisco. The Giants tied the Tigers for MLB's fewest wins in 2017 (64) plus owned MLB's worst moneyline mark, at minus-$3775. Both teams are off to sub-.500 starts this season but the team most likely to get things turned around is LA, which has won five straight NL West titles. Make the Dodgers an 8* play. |
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04-29-18 | Penguins v. Capitals -112 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Capitals own a troubled (that's a nice way to put it, right?) playoff history and the 2018 postseason could be following a similar script. Yes, the Caps came back to win four straight games over Columbus after losing both games at home in the first round but Washington immediately coughed-up its home ice advantage to the Penguins in Game 1 of the teams' Eastern Conference semifinal. Even more troubling is that in seven postseason games, including three of their four at home , the Caps have frittered away a two-goal lead four times ,this postseason. Washington allowed three third-period goals during a span of 4:49 in Game 1 and now have to regroup quickly if thgey want to even their best-of-seven series with Pittsburgh at one game apiece when they host their bitter rivals in Game 2 on Sunday afternoon. The Capitals need a stronger response at home considering they are 1-3 at Capital One Arena, while the Penguins are a perfect 4-0 on the road in the 2018 postseason.. Pittsburgh: Center Evgeni Malkin shed the non-contact jersey for a more traditional yellow one in practice on Saturday and will be a game-time decision for Game 2, after sitting out two contests with a lower-body injury following a collision with Philadelphia's Jori Lehtera. Pittsburgh captain Sidney Crosby, Malkin, Phil Kessel and Matt Murray tend to dominate the headlines but Jake Guentzel routinely 'comes alive' when the postseason rolls along. The 23-year-old capped the late goal surge by linemates Crosby and Patric Hornqvist to extend his point streak to five games (four goals, eight assists) and boost his league-leading total in scoring with 16 (seven goals, nine assists). Washington: The Caps took a 1-0 lead just 17 seconds into Game 1 and had several odd-man rushes but never put Pittsburgh away. Alex Ovechkin scored and set up a goal in the series opener but the team's superstar captain and his linemates, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson, were on the ice for all three of Pittsburgh's goals in the third period. They don't need a lot of chances," Washington defenseman Matt Niskanen told NHL.com. "If they have one good look, they can snipe. But you can't overthink it either. You've just got to play your game. But when it's your guy, when it's your turn to check, you've got to check hard and really take away their space." The pick: The Capitals are no strangers to being behind in a series, having lost the first two games at home to the Columbus Blue Jackets before winning four straight in the opening round. In fact, Washington lost the first two games at home against the Penguins a year ago but was able forced a Game 7 on home ice. Naturally, the Caps lost that one. However, this is NOT a Game 7 and I expect Washington to even the series with a win. Make the Caps a 10* play. |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: LeBron James returned to Cleveland after a four-year 'mission' in Miami and has led the Cavs to three consecutive NBA Finals (won one and lost two). However, his three-time defending Eastern Conference champion Cavaliers will host the Indiana Pacers on Sunday afternoon, trying to avoid a first-round exit. Cleveland went into Indiana on Friday with a chance to close out the series but got rocked 121-87. James was the only starter to score in double figures with 22 points, as the remaining four starters combined for a total of 22 points. The Cavs shot only 31.6% from three-point range (12 of 38) and adding insult to injury, made just 9 of 16 FTs (56.2%). Meanwhile, the Pacers played their most complete game of the series in Game 6, shooting 56.3 percent from the floor and forcing 15 turnovers. Oladipo led seven Pacers players in double figures, as Indiana shot 15-of-30 from three-point range. Indiana: Oladipo had lost his shooting touch in Games 3, 4 and 5, going a combined 12-of-50 (24.0%) from the floor but recorded a triple-double with 28 points on 11-of-19 shooting, 13 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 6. He became the third Pacer to post a playoff triple double. Domantas Sabonis, the other key acquisition in the Paul George trade, had 19 points on 9-of-11 shooting and is averaging 20 points on 26-of-35 shooting (74.3%) over the last three games. Cleveland: Jeff Green (13) and Rodney Hood (12) came off the bench in Game 6 to join LBJ in double figures but overall, it was brutal game by the Cavs. Kevin Love managed just seven points on 3-of-10 shooting and is now averaging 11 points on 32.4 percent shooting in the series, after posting 17.6 points on 45.8 percent during the regular season. "He's a huge part of our success or our non-success," James told reporters of Love. "Obviously, we try to go to him, we want to go to him. Obviously, we can't make the shots for him. He has to step up and knock those down. Those things you can't control." Making matters worse is that no other Cavs player is averaging double figures for the series. The pick: The Cavs have been 'living on the edge' all season and now face this do-or-die game. James is 4-2 all time in Game 7s and more importantly, has never lost an opening round series (12-0). Meanwhile, the Pacers are 3-5 in Game 7s, including 2-5 on the road. Indiana is also trying to avoid being eliminated by a James team (Cavs, Heat) for the fifth time in the last seven seasons. "The pressure is on both teams," Indiana head coach Nate McMillan said. "The loser goes home. So, for us, we take it one game at a time and we prepare ourselves for that next game. The next game is on the road. We understand the conditions we're playing in, but to say they feel more pressure than us? No. The losers go home. So there's pressure on both teams." I think he's 'whistling past the graveyard.' We saw Milwaukee fail miserably on Saturday in Game 7 at Boston (just not ready for primetime) and I believe the same fate awaits the Pacers. Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Anthony Davis entered the 2018 postseason without a playoff win on his resume but his New Orleans Pelicans (West's No. 6 seed) were dominant in sweeping the third-seeded Portland Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs. Davis averaged 33 points on 57.6 percent shooting and 11.8 rebounds in the four-game sweep of Portland. He and his teammates now know they have a much bigger challenge up next, facing the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors (three straight Finals appearances with two titles). Golden State ran out to a 3-0 lead against the Leonard-less Spurs (also 3- ATS), before losing Game 4 and then taking Game 5 to close out the series in a non-cover. These teams met in the 2015 postseason (AD's only other playoff experience), with the Warriors sweeping the Pelicans but going just 1-3 ATS. New Orleans: Davis is the unquestioned leader and star of this team, but guards Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo plus power forward Nikola Mirotic are keys to an offense that is clicking on all cylinders. After a 97-95 win in Game 1, the Pelicans averaged 120.3 PPG in taking the final three games against Portland. Holiday averaged 27.8-4.0-6.5, Rondo 11.2-7.5-13.2 and Mirotic 18.2 & 9.5. "The unselfishness," Rondo told the team's website, when asked which area the Pelicans have shown the most growth this season. "I think we’re rooting for the next man beside us. Early in the season, I couldn’t really say that for this team. But now, it seems like guys are happy for one another, genuinely. Regardless of whether guys are playing bad or playing great, when we come in that locker room, if we got a ‘W’, everyone has the same mindset, the same joy for each other." Golden State: The Warriors hope to have Stephen Curry back in the lineup Saturday night. The former two-time MVP practiced with his teammates Thursday and Friday but noted afterward a final decision on whether he plays for the first time since March 23 rests in the hands of Golden State's medical staff after the Game 1 warmups (Curry suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee in a collision with teammate JaVale McGee in a game against Atlanta). Curry sat out the last 15 games of the regular season and all five vs. the Spurs. However, Kevin Durant averaged 28.2 points in the first round to help cover some of Curry's lost scoring while shooting guard Klay Thompson averaged 22.6 points and shot 51.6 percent from three-point range. Draymond Green was his usual disruptive self, averaging 11.4-11.2-8.0 (he had 17 points and 19 rebounds in Game 5). The pick: The Warriors took three of four meetings with the Pelicans in the regular season but I'm staying away from either team here. No one can be sure what Curry's status will be but expect Golden State to brings its "D," which is so often looked because the team is the NBA's highest scoring and best-shooting club. VERY high total in this contest makes the Under a 10* play. |
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04-28-18 | Mets v. Padres -127 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets posted a 5-1 victory in the series opener at San Diego last night. The win improves New York to 16-9, as the Mets have very early on looked as if they've put last year's injury-plagued 70-win season behind them. The Mets lead the NL East by a half-game (over the surprising Phillies) but have to be buoyed by the fact that they sit six games clear of the Nationals, who won the NL East last season and finished 27 games ahead of them. In contrast, the Padres are coming off a 71-win season in 2017 and the team's 9-18 start in 2018 has them on pace to win just 54 games! Eric Hosmer, the team's big FA acquisition in the off-season, went 0-for-3 with a walk in his return after a two-game absence due to family reasons and has produced only four RBIs in 88 at-bats (.250 BA & 2 HRs).. The pitching matchup: Jason Vargas (2017: 18-11, 4.16 ERA) will make his 2018 debut for the Mets and San Diego will counter with Joey Lucchesi (2-1, 2.70 ERA), making it a battle of lefties. Vargas won a career-best 18 games and was an All-Star for the first time last season with Kansas City. He cashed in by signing a two-year, $16 million deal over the winter and figures to eventually be the No. 3 starter behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The veteran underwent surgery on his hand on March 20 and is back in the majors after throwing 66 pitches in Monday's rehab start. The 35-year-old is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA in four career starts against San Diego. Lucchesi is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up four runs on five hits and four walks in five innings of a 4-2 loss to Arizona. However, he had put together three solid starts prior to that defeat, allowing just one ER over 17 innings (he was 2-0 and the team 2-1). The pick: I realize the Mets have high expectations for Vargas but is that realistic? Vargas has been around since 2005 and owns an 85-81 record with a 4.17 ERA. He's off a "career season" in 2017 but was limited to just 12 starts in 2015 and 2016. Injuries are nothing new to Vargas. He suffered a torn labrum in his hip in 2008. In 2013, Vargas missed time with a blood clot in his left armpit. The following season, he missed time following an appendectomy and in 2015 he suffered a flexor strain before having Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery. He's a huge question mark in my view. The 24-year-old Lucchesi will be facing the Mets for the first time. The Padres' fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft, has made five starts and is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA. He is the only Padres pitcher with a winning record. He leads all major league rookies in ERA and opponents' on-base percentage (.283), ranks second in innings pitched (26 2/3) and opponents' batting average (.229) plus ranks third in strikeouts (29). Make San Diego a 10* play. |
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04-28-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -168 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -168 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The NHL's first round features 16 teams and eight series. Just two of those eight series ended in 4-0 sweeps, as the expansion Vegas Golden Knights did so against the LA Kings and the San Jose Sharks brushed aside the Anaheim Ducks. One of the two Western Conference semifinal series will feature those two 'sweepers, as the Vegas Golden Knights take on the San Jose Sharks. Vegas allowed just three goals to Los Angeles in its half of the Pacific Division derby, while San Jose manhandled Anaheim, outscoring the Ducks 16-4. The teams opened their series Thursday night, with the Golden Knights playing their first game in nine days, while the Sharks were taking the ice for the first time in eight days. Vegas has experienced a string of firsts in its record-setting expansion season but jitters have not been among them. The bright lights of the postseason have done nothing to slow the Golden Knights, who look to take a 2-0 lead over visiting San Jose on Saturday in their Western Conference semifinal after thrashing the Sharks 7-0 in the series opener. The Golden Knights scored seven goals in the four-game sweep of Los Angeles in the first round but matched the total in the series opener, essentially delivering an early knockout punch by scoring four times in a span of just over seven minutes in the first period. and went on to win, 7-0. After suffering the worst playoff loss in team history on Thursday night n the first game of the Western Conference semifinals, the San Jose Sharks awoke to find that the sun did indeed come up in the morning. San Jose: Head coach Peter DeBoer cited a "laundry list of issues" in the Game 1 beating, a list that got longer when Sharks forward Evander Kane received a one-game suspension Friday for cross-checking Vegas defenseman Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. "It's the first adversity we've faced in the playoffs. It's on us to respond now," DeBoer said. "You don't get extra points for winning by a touchdown like they did. We have to be better." Kane was San Jose's big-ticket acquisition from Buffalo at the trade deadline and scored three times in the first-round sweep of Anaheim, after netting nine goals in 17 regular-season games. Martin Jones allowed four goals in four games versus the Ducks but was chased 3 1/2 minutes into the second period after surrendering five goals on 13 shots. Vegas: "We did good things," said Golden Knights forward James Neal, who capped the scoring with a power-play goal. "For us, I think we have to look at them, they're going to be a hungry team, they're going to be a lot better. They'll be putting that one behind them pretty quick and looking to be a better hockey team so we gotta be ready." The early cushion certainly made his job easier, but Marc-Andre Fleury became the 14th goaltender in history, and first in 14 years, to record three shutouts in his team's first five playoff games. Fleury has a staggering .982 save percentage and 0.54 goals-against average in the playoffs. Vegas received goals from seven different players, with its top line of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Reilly Smith accounted for nine points. The pick: The Sharks came into this series as arguably the most impressive team in the first round of the playoffs, opening with two wins in Anaheim before rolling up eight goals in Game 3. Yes, Vegas also was off a four-game sweep but each game was decided by just one goal. Can San Jose bounce back? Sure they can but I won't bet that they will. Vegas is now a dominating 32-10-2 at T-Mobile Arena outscoring opponents on average, 3.55-to-2.34 GPG. In Fleury we trust. Make the Golden Knights an 8* play. |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 195.5 | Top | 96-112 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the eight first round series are headed for a Game 7 with Milwaukee and Boston being up first (Sunday, it's Indiana and Cleveland). The home team is a perfect 6-0 so far (5-1 ATS) but Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo said he is out to change that pattern in Saturday's Game 7. The "Greek Freak" scored 31 points and added14 rebounds as the Bucks forced a Game 7 with Thursday's 97-86 victory. The second-seeded Celtics unexpectedly find themselves in need of a win to keep their season alive. Celtics head coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "Game 7 in TD Garden is what you play for. It should be what you're excited most about. What you worked for all summer, what you worked for all year. It's a blast." Milwaukee: Antetokounmpo has scored 30 or more points on three occasions in the series and is averaging 26.3-9.7-6.5 through six games. Middleton (23.5- & 5.7) has been consistently good but the duo needs someone from the trio of guard Eric Bledsoe (12.0 PPG on 38.9% shooting), forward Jabari Parker (10.2) and guard Malcolm Brogdon (9.8) to step up on Saturday. "We're a team that has shown a lot of resiliency all year," interim coach Joe Prunty said. "We've had a game this year, twice, where we've been down 20 and found a way to come back and win both times. We continue to battle. We fight." Boston: Failing to close out the series in Milwaukee didn't seem to faze most of the Boston players, as they return to a venue in which they have won three times during the playoff matchup, by an average of 8.3 points. Second-year shooting guard Brown is one of five Celtics averaging in double digits in the series, leading the way at 20.5 PPG (RPG). Center/PF Al Horford (16.8 & 8.8), guard Terry Rozier (16.2-4.0-6.3), small forward Jayson Tatum (14.7 & 5.2) and power forward Marcus Morris (13.8 & 5.0) being the others. Morris (thigh) was injured in Game 6 and insists he is fine for the series finale. The pick: With Milwaukee's awful recent playoff history (see above), I can't take the Bucks. However, I'm not convinced Boston (minus Kyrie) is really better than the Bucks. With the series tied two-all, Boston won Game 5, 92-87 and facing elimination, Milwaukee won Game 6, 97-86. That's an average of 181.0 PPG. In this do-or-die Game 7, why NOT expect another low-scoring contest? Make the Under an 8* play. |
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04-28-18 | Reds v. Twins -143 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds opened a MLB-worst 3-15 and that stumbling start cost manager Bryan Price his job. It was "business as usual" for interim manager Jim Riggleman in his first three games as the team's new skipper, as the Reds dropped all three games in St. Louis from April 20-22. However, Cincy's bats 'woke up in splitting a four-game series in Atlanta (Reds scored 19 runs in the two wins) and The pitching matchup: Sal Romano (1-2, 4.78 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds and he'll be opposed by the Twins' Jake Odorizzi (1-2, 4.50 ERA). Romano is coming off his best performance of the season Monday against Atlanta, allowing two runs (one earned) in six innings. It was his first quality start in four tries since his season debut, while his one walk and five strikeouts were both his best marks of the year. He has never faced the Twins but he was pummeled for five runs over four innings by Boston in his only career interleague start last season. Odorizzi was a regular part of Tampa Bay's rotation the last four years, winning 40 games while making between 28 and 33 starts each season. After yielding one home run over 16 1/3 innings in his first three starts, Odorizzi has surrendered five in his last two turns, including two in Monday's 14-1 loss to the New York Yankees. That outing came six days after giving up three HRs in five innings versus Cleveland. Odorizzi was charged with three runs across seven innings of a no-decision in his only career start against Cincinnati in June. The pick: The Reds owned the dubious honor of playing the worst baseball in the majors throughout most of the first month of the season but that 'title' looks as if it's shifting over to the Minnesota Twins. However, I don't believe the Twins are close to being as bad as the team has played lately and with the Reds off a 20-hit, 15-run game, this sure 'feels' like a good spot for Minnesota. Odorizzi has proven he can pitch regularly in a starting rotation (see above), which is something Romano has yet to do (Reds are 9-12 in his 21 career starts). Make the Twins an 8* play. |
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04-27-18 | White Sox v. Royals -131 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -131 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago White Sox and the Kansas City Royals began a five-game series on Thursday (doubleheader scheduled for Saturday to make up a postponement from April 1). Chicago's 5-16 start was the team's worst since 1950, with the White Sox having lost 14 of their last 16 games entering last night's game. Meanwhile, Kansas City opened this long weekend series just 5-17, entering having lost 12 of their last 14 contests. Chicago White Sox belted five HRs, two by Matt Davidson, while notching a 6-3 victory on Thursday. Welington Castillo, Yoan Moncada and Trayce Thompson also went deep as Chicago won for just the third time in 17 games. Davidson has hit seven HRs this season, with five coming at Kauffman Stadium. The White Sox are saddled with a 6-16 record, but half of their victories have occurred in Kansas City, where they swept a season-opening two-game series. Kansas City has now dropped 13 of its last 15 games and owns the American League's worst record at 5-18, including a 1-10 mark at home. The pitching matchup: Reynaldo Lopez (0-2, 1.50 ERA) will get the ball for the White Sox, while the Royals counter with lefty Danny Duffy (0-3, 5.26 ERA). It seems unfair that Lopez is winless in his four starts, as he's allowed just four ERs and 12 hits over 24 innings. In fact, Lopez hasn't yielded more than four hits in any of his outings but he has experienced some control issues with four or more walks in three of his starts. Good news for Chicago is that Lopez is 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. Duffy had an excellent 2016 season (team was 12-3 with a 3.651 ERA and KC was 17-9 in his 26 starts, going plus-648 vs. the moneyline) but he couldn't repeat his 2016 season, going 9-10 with a 3.81 ERA last year. Duffy is not just 0-3 on the season but the Royals also have failed to win any of his five starts. Duffy was roughed up by Detroit in his last outing as he gave up six runs and 10 hits over 4 2/3 innings. He began 2018 on a bad note when Chicago's Abreu, Davidson and Anderson all went deep off him in the fourth inning on Opening Day as he allowed five runs and seven hits in four frames. Duffy is now 7-6 with a 4.47 ERA in 21 career appearances (19 starts) against the White Sox. The pick: It's difficult to explain Duffy's 2018 woes plus is it really possible the Royals are actually this bad? I won't 'chase the Royals' but will play them here. It's not often we see a game between two pitchers who each have yet to see their respective teams win any game in which they've started. The Royals are 0-5 in Duffy's starts and the White Sox are 0-4 in games started by Lopez. One pitcher HAS to break through here with at least a team win, if not an actual "W." Make the Royals a 10* play. |
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04-27-18 | Jets +1.5 v. Predators | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators were an 8-seed in the West last season but made an impressive Stanley Cup run that didn't end until Game 6 of the Finals! Nashville built off last year's playoff success and entered this year's playoffs as the team with the most points (117) of any NHL club during the regular season. The Winnipeg Jets entered the Stanley Cup playoffs as a legitimate championship contender, after putting together the greatest regular season in franchise history by going 52-20-10. The team's 114 points did fall three shy of that of the Central Division-winning Nashville Predators but the Jets accumulated more points than any other NHL team save the Preds! The two Central Division rivals combined for 231 points during fantastic regular seasons, setting up what is expected to be an entertaining Western Conference semifinal. The Nashville Predators will host the Winnipeg Jets in the series opener tonight, after finishing 3-1-1 against them in the regular season. Each team owns one victory on road ice and the two combined for 41 goals in those five games, a testament to the offensive firepower on both rosters considering both teams have Vezina Trophy finalists in Pekka Rinne of the Predators and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck. Winnipeg: The Jets had four players finish with 60-plus points, including the NHL co-leader in assists (Blake Wheeler had 68) and the second-highest goal scorer in the league (Patrik Laine had 44). Winnipeg smothered Minnesota in the opening round with waves of offense, getting three points or more from seven players in the five games, led by four goals and an assist from center Mark Scheifele and a pair of goals from Laine along with defenseman Tyler Myers. Hellebuyck did not face tremendous pressure for large stretches of the series but even though he was pulled from Game 3 he still finished with a .924 save percentage and a 1.93 goals against average. After the Wild won Game 3 by a 6-2 score, Hellebuyck posted back-to-back shutout victories, 2-0 and 5-0. Nashville: The Predators finished the regular season with eight players recording 40 or more points, including a pair of defensemen (Roman Josi and P.K. Subban). Forsberg lead the team with 64 points and Arvidsson led with 26 goals. Nashville had to go six games before eliminating Colorado, doing so emphatically Sunday with a 5-0 decision that included Pekka Rinne's fourth career playoff shutout and three points for the first time in 81 postseason games for center Nick Bonino. One aspect Nashville hopes to improve on from its first-round victory over Colorado is its second line, as Fiala, center Kyle Turris and forward Craig Smith combined for just five points. Forward Austin Watson and center Colton Sissons were fantastic in the first round, combining for seven goals and 14 points, while Rinne shook off a rough performance in Game 3 to stop 140-of-154 shots on goal (.909 SP). The pick: As befits a matchup of the teams with the league's top point totals, there simply isn't much difference across the board. The Jets were second in the NHL in goals and the Predators were seventh. Nashville was second in the league in fewest goals allowed and Winnipeg was fifth. I'm taking the 1 1/2 goals and making Winnipeg a 6* play. |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 204 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: LeBron James capped off a 44-point, 10-rebound, eight-assist performance by nailing a three-pointer at the buzzer to give the Cavaliers a 98-95 victory in Game 5 and their first lead of the series. No one can nor will dispute LBJ's gretaness but the Pacers have a real beef with what happened just prior to "The Kng's" buzzer-beater. LBJ's game-winner came right after he swatted away a dunk attempt by Indiana's Victor Oladipo at the other end, a play the NBA declared on Thursday should have been called a goal-tend. "It is what it is," Pacers center Myles Turner told reporters. "It was clearly a goal-tend. They didn't review it. There's not anything you can say about it. It's frustrating. It doesn't change the fact that LeBron still hit that game-winning shot, but it's still a pivotal moment in the game that I feel does need a review." A bigger issue for Indiana is Victor Oladipo, who started out hot in the series, but is struggling over the last three games. He was just 2-of-15 from the floor while scoring 12 points on Wednesday, making him just 12-of-50 (24.0%) over the last three contests after going 20-of-37 (54.1%) in the first two games. Cleveland: Kevin Love added a double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds on Wednesday and felt confident that his teammate was the right person to take the final shot. "We wanted to free up 'Bron as best we could," Love told reporters. Kyle Korver was the only other player to score in double figures with 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting for Cleveland. For teh series, LBJ is averaging 34.8 PPG. 23 points more per game than the team's second-leading scorer Kevin Love (11.8 PPG). JR Smith went scoreless on 0-of-8 shooting in 33 minutes on Wednesday, George Hill (back) has now missed the last two games and is questionable for Friday Indiana: The Pacers were ahead 56-49 at halftime but the game turned in the third quarter when the Cavaliers opened with a 21-4 spurt to take a 10-point lead. Point guard Darren Collison said the Pacers can't dwell on the missed call or loss. "We've got to forget about it," Collison told Fox Sports Indiana. "You can't worry about what happened. That's not going to help us. We know (James) made a tough shot. We'll be prepared mentally coming in." Obviously, Oladipo needs to regain his shooting touch but Indiana has to like the fact that after scoring a total of just 17 points in the first three games of the series, backup center Domantas Sabonis has scored 41 off the bench in the last two games (on 17-of-24 shooting). The pick: An LBJ-led team has never lost an opening round series (12-0) and the team may not lose this one. However, one can't ignore that the Cavs, although up 3-2 in the series, are 1-4 ATS. Also of note is the fact that series has gone "under the total" in all previous five games. I lean to the Pacers but will make the Over an 8* play. |
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04-27-18 | Raptors v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 102-92 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bucks won Game 6 at home last night to send the Boston/Milwaukee series to a Game 7, as the home team has each of the first six games (5-1 ATS) in that matchup. The Wizards will look to "repeat that script" tonight when the host the Toronto Raptors at the Verizon Center. Toronto's 108-98 win over the Wizards in Game 5 gave the home team a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS mark in this series . DeMar DeRozan scored 32 points and handed out five assists to lead the top-seeded Raptors in that critical Game 5 win, while Delon Wright chipped in 18 points in 26 minutes off the bench. The Wizards had a chance in Game 5 but were outscored 29-20 in the 4th quarter, as they shot 8 of 24 in the final 12 minutes. John Wall was 2 of 6 in the fourth, while backcourt mate Bradley Beal missed five of six shots in the final stanza. Toronto: Head coach Dwane Casey discovered something down the stretch in Game 5 with an odd grouping of DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, C.J. Miles, center Jonas Valanciunas (who had yet to play in the fourth quarter this series) and Wright. DeRozan scored 30 points before the fourth quarter while Wright scored 11 of his 18 points in the fourth, Valanciunas totaled six points and seven rebounds, helping the Raptors control the glass by a 15-12 margin in a game where they were outrebounded 50-35. Besides the relatively new lineup, the Raptors also reverted to its style of emphasizing three-point shooting. Toronto made 11 of 25 three-pointers, after attempting just 18 (made seven) in Game 4. Washington: The Wizards won Games 3 and 4 at home to even this series, before the Raptors seized a 3-2 series advantage with Wednesday's win in Toronto. However, are confident they can force a do-or-die Game 7 with the Raptors. "We love our chances," PG John Wall told reporters of the eighth-seeded Wizards' quest to stave off elimination at home. "We're very confident." Wall is averaging 26.6-5.8-12.2 in teh series and his fellow All Star backcourt partner, Bradley Beal, is averaging 21.4 PPG. Five others are contributing between 9.4 and 1.4 PPG in the series but Washington could sure one of that group to "step up" here in Game 6. Kelly Oubre, who is 3-of-16 from three-point range in the series, might gain a larger role if fellow forward Otto Porter Jr. is unable to go. Porter has been wrestling with a bone bruise in his left leg and will be reassessed Friday. Head coach Scott Brooks knows he needs more from Porter, who averaged 14.7 points this season but has been held to single digits three times in the series. "We need Otto to be more than a 9-10 point scorer for us to win this series," Brooks told reporters. The pick: Here's the bottom line. As noted, the home team is 5-0 SU & ATS in the series so far, but that's only part of the storyline. The Wizards come into this game having won their last eight playoff games in the nation's capital and have yet to lose to Toronto at home in a postseason game! Enough said. Make Washington a 10* play. |
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04-26-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The NHL's first round features 16 teams and eight series. Just two of those eight series ended it 4-0 sweeps, as the expansion Vegas Golden Knights did so against the LA Kings and the San Jose Sharks brushed aside the Anaheim Ducks. The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs opens tonight and one of the two Western Conference semifinal series will feature those two 'sweepers.' The Vegas Golden Knights host the San Jose Sharks in the opener of their Western Conference semifinal, after Vegas allowed three goals to Los Angeles in its half of the Pacific Division derby, while San Jose manhandled Anaheim, outscoring the Ducks 16-4. The Golden Knights rely on a raucous crowd at T-Mobile Arena and were dominant against Pacific opponents, finishing 20-6-3 in division play and winning three of four matchups (3-0-1) against the Sharks, a series that included three one-goal decisions. The Sharks come in full of confidence, as they were the most impressive team in the first round of the playoffs, opening with two wins in Anaheim before rolling up eight goals in Game 3. San Jose: The Sharks are now better able to counter Vegas' four lines thanks to the trade-deadline acquisition of forward Evander Kane, who had nine goals in 17 regular-season games with the Sharks before scoring three times in the first round on the top line with captain Joe Pavelski and Joonas Donskoi. Logan Couture scored a team-high 34 goals during the regular season and has 74 points in 90 career postseason games, including a playoff-high 30 in leading San Jose to the Stanley Cup Final in 2016. Goaltender Martin Jones was outstanding against Anaheim but posted a 1-2-0 mark with a 3.32 goals-against average and .899 save percentage versus Vegas. Vegas: Jones may have been good vs. Anaheim but the Golden Knight's Marc-Andre Fleury was nearly impregnable against the Kings. He came into the 2018 postseason with plenty of playoff experience as part of three Stanley Cup-winning teams with the Pittsburgh Penguins and was near-perfect against the Kings. Vegas won all four games by just one goal, with Fleury owning an 0.65 GAA and .977 SP. Vegas managed only seven goals against Los Angeles but featured four players with at least 25 goals during the regular season, led by William Karlsson (43), who has scored four times to go with an assist in the four matchups against San Jose. The pick: Vegas is 31-10-2 at home but will be facing a veteran San Jose squad that is 22-14-7 on the road. The "elephant in the room" is which team can shake off the rust quicker? Vegas will be playing its first game in nine days, while San Jose will be taking the ice for the first time in eight days. I just don't see a 1-0 or 2-1 contest. "5" seems like an easily attainable plateau. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-26-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers led the National League Central (and the defending World Series champs) for most of the summer, but folded down the stretch. as the Cubs went on to win the division by eight games. The Cubs took three of four at Milwaukee earlier this month (April 5-8) but as the two rivals get set for another four-game set Thursday (this time at Wrigley Field), the Brewers enter on an eight-game winning streak that has them atop the NL Central with a 16-9 record (the Cards are in second, one game back). The Cubs just split two games at Cleveland but have won four of their last six. Still, the Cubs enter the series just a single game over .500 at 11-10, leaving the fourth in the NL Central, three games behind the Brewers. The pitching matchup: Chase Anderson (2-1, 3.25 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 4.09 ERA) does so for Chicago. Anderson opened the season winless in his first three starts (0-1 / team was 2-1) but has won his last two. He gave up a pair of HRs but not much else in a win over Miami last time out, allowing three runs and five hits over 5 1/3 innings. Anderson is 3-3 with a 3.67 ERA in eight starts in his career against the Cubs. Hendricks picked up his first win of the season Friday at Colorado, allowing three runs and five hits over five innings. He did not issue a walk after allowing seven in his first three starts but he did give up his fifth HR of the season. Hendricks is 6-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the Brewers. The pick: The Milwaukee Brewers certainly come in on a roll have experienced plenty of positivity during their recent winning streak but they will begin their four-game weekend set at Wrigley Field without first baseman Eric Thames, who is expected to miss up to two months with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb. The Cubs were able to win three of four at Miller Park in early April and I see no reason for them not to be able to do the same here at Wrigley Field. That said, one should always take things one game at a time. Make the Cubs an 8* play here on Thursday. |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics will be in Milwaukee for Game 6 of this first round series against the Bucks, a series in which the home team has won each of the first five games (4-1 ATS). The second-seeded Celtics took a 3-2 series lead with a 92-87 win at home Tuesday night, meaning the host Bucks face a do-or-die Game 6 tonight. Al Horford switched from power forward to center and led Boston with 22 points and 14 rebounds as the Celtics survived an old-fashioned defensive contest. "We needed to make an adjustment and do something," Horford told reporters of the lineup changes, which included the return from injury of guard Marcus Smart and a rare start for rookie forward Semi Ojeleye. "Coach (Brad Stevens) saw that and he went with his gut and that, and a combination of Marcus Smart, I think paid off for us tonight." The Bucks shot well over 50 percent from the floor in the previous three games before being held to 36.8 percent in Game 5, with Giannis Antetokounmpo being limited to just 10 shot attempts. Boston: Smart had been out since March 11 with a thumb injury but added an instant dose of defense and toughness that Boston lacked while allowing an average of 110 points in losing games 3 and 4. Smart only scored nine points in 25 minutes of work but was a force on the defensive end. Ojeleye had just five points in his 31 minutes was one of the main reason the "Greek Freak" was quieted. Boston was outplayed in Games 3 and 4 in Milwaukee but during the regular season was an impressive 27-13 SU on the road. Milwaukee: "It's on me. I had open shots, but they wasn't my shots," Antetokounmpo told the media. "I think my teammates did a great job finding me, but coming the next game, Game 6, I've got to be more aggressive and make more plays." Khris Middleton led the Bucks with 23 points but was just 9-of-21 from the floor after shooting 40-for-65 through the first four games of the series. Antetokounmpo is averaging in the series and Middleton. Interim Bucks coach Joe Prunty said his team needs a better all-around effort if it wants to keep its season alive for another day. "It's not just one guy, it's everyone we call on," Prunty said. "We need them to come in and play solid defense, we need guys to come in and knock down shots." The pick: A loss tonight by Milwaukee would not only end the Bucks' season but also mark the final game played at the Bradley Center, their home since 1988. The team is moving into a new facility located right next door next season. The Bucks are looking for their first series victory since 2001 and it's also heard to ignore that they never won a series after trailing 0-2, going 0-17 in such situations. Meanwhile, the Celtics have never lost a series they led 2-0, winning all 35 times going into their current situation. League history tells us that teams are 19-276 all-time when trailing a series 0-2, including this postseason. Will the Bucks make that 19-277? Maybe in Game 7, but not tonight! Lay the points and make Milwaukee a 10* play. |
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04-26-18 | Braves -130 v. Reds | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
analysis soon The set-up: The Cincinnati Reds welcomed the Atlanta Braves to Great American Ball Park on Monday for the start of a four-game series with MLB's worst record (3-18). Cincy surprised the Braves with 10-4 and 9-7 (12 inn.) wins in the first two games, before the Braves won 5-4 on Wednesday. Atlanta got a boost from several of their talented young prospects. Outfielder Ronald Acuna, Jr. made his major-league debut in Wednesday’s 5-4 victory, contributing an eighth-inning single and scoring the game-tying run before third baseman Johan Camargo doubled home Ozzie Albies with the decisive run in the ninth. Albies and Camargo both made their major-league debuts last season. To cap the victory, rookie A.J. Minter earned his first save as the Braves moved to a surprising 13-10 record on the season. The Reds will try to take this series but despite wins Monday and Tuesday, are just 3-8 at home this season, allowing an average of 5.82 RPG. The pitching matchup: The Braves will send lefty Sean Newcomb (1-1, 3.74 ERA) to the mound and he will be opposed by the Reds' Homer Bailey (0-3, 3.68 ERA). Newcomb gave up three runs (two earned) in six innings against the Mets on Friday and has struck out six hitters or more in three of his four starts in 2018 (Braves are only 1-3 in those starts). Newcomb, whose lone victory this season featured six scoreless innings at Colorado on April 8, won his only appearance against Cincinnati as a rookie in 2017. Bailey has pitched far better than his record would indicate, as he has surrendered more than three ERs just once in five starts and is holding opposing batters to a .218 average on the season. He settled for a no-decision Saturday at St. Louis, giving up three runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings in a game the Reds would lose 4-3. He owns a 2-2 lifetime record with a 4.54 ERA in six career starts against the Braves but has not faced Atlanta since 2014. The pick: With the Braves off to an encouraging start, they've decided to speed up the timetable a little and push the future of the franchise into the present. Ronald Acuna Jr., rated the majors' best prospect by multiple scouting outlets and the winner of multiple minor league player of the year awards last season, is now on a big league roster. Acuna's spring training numbers (.432, four HRs & 11 RBI) solidified his status as the top prospect coming into this season other than pitcher-outfielder Shohei Otani of the Los Angeles Angels. Meanwhile, the Reds are now 5-19 and averaged 2.9 runs on 7.3 hits per game during a 3-18 start. However, they have scored 23 runs on 34 hits through the first three games of the series. That's the good news. The bad news is, Cincinnati relievers gave up two runs on six hits in four innings Wednesday, and its bullpen enters the series finale at 2-6 on the season with a 5.34 ERA. Make Atlanta a 10* play. |
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04-25-18 | Mets v. Cardinals -144 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets won 90 games in 2015 and then made it to the World Series, before making the playoffs as a wild card team in 2016 with 87 wins. Therefore, last year's 70-win season was to say the least, a huge disappointment. New York has a new manager in Mickey Callaway and the team believes that it made wise off-season investments. The team's 70-92 mark in 2017 loosened the purse strings as outfielder Jay Bruce (three years, $39 million), third baseman Todd Frazier (two years, $17 million), left-hander Jason Vargas (two years, $16 million) and right-hander Anthony Swarzak (two years, $14 million) signed contracts. Bruce paid immediate dividends with a fast start to the season before the bottom fell out during a 1-for-22 stretch at the plate. Undaunted, Bruce has slowly regained his form by cashing in at the plate. he capped a three-hit performance with a HR in the 10th inning of a 6-5 triumph on Tuesday. The St. Louis Cardinals remained in the wild-card chase until game No. 159 last season. They've made winning seem like a birthright since the last round of expansion, as the Cards have made the playoffs in 12 of the last 20 years and have missed the postseason in back-to-back years just twice, 2007-08 and 2016-17. The team has no interest in seeing 2018 become a 'hat trick' and the team is off to a solid 13-9 start, as last night's loss was just its second in 10 games. The Mets are 15-6, having won eight of 10 road games in 2018, as the teams square off in the rubber match of this three-game series tonight. The pitching matchup: Lefty Steven Matz (1-1, 4.42 ERA) starts for New York, while Michael Wacha (3-1, 4.22 ERA) goes for St. Louis. Matz lost 5-1 to the Cards back on April 1, surrendering two HRs and three runs total in four innings. He also exited after just four innings in his last outing against Washington, although he had retired 10 in a row after serving up a three-run HR first. Matz has just two career starts vs. St. Louis and is 0-2 with an 8.64 ERA (ouch!). Wacha's 2018 debut 9March 31) was against the Mets and he allowed four runs (two HRs) over 4 2/3 innings of a 6-2 setback. However, he answered that outing with three straight wins, highlighted by a strong effort against Cincinnati on Friday in which he allowed season lows in runs (one) and walks (one) while going 6 2/3 innings in the 4-2 victory. Wacha owns a 4-2 mark with a 2.70 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six career meetings with the Mets. The pick:The Mets have played better than the Cards so far but the Cards are slightly hotter at the moment (8-2 last 10) plus Matz has been awful in two career tries against St. Louis while Wacha has been very good against New York. Make St. Louis a 10* play. |
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04-25-18 | Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up:The Toronto Maple Leafs have faced series' deficits of 2-0 and 3-1 against the Boston Bruins but the Maple Leafs staved off elimination with a 4-3 win at Boston in Game 5, before prevailing 3-1 on Monday night. Toronto has not won a postseason series since 2004 but the Maple Leafs can end that a streak tonight when they visit the Boston Bruins in a winner-take-all Game 7 of their Eastern Conference first-round series. It appeared the Bruins would make it a short series after winning the opening two games by a combined 12-4 but the Bruins now find themselves in a Game 7. Toronto: Frederik Andersen entered the series with a 10-1-0 record against Boston, but he was pierced early and often before turning in superb performances in the past two outings, making 42 saves in Game 5 and turning aside 32 of 33 shots in Game 6. Mitch Marner is riding the momentum of a stellar series, delivering the tie-breaking score Monday to give him two goals and six assists during a five-game point streak. Leo Komarov is ready to return after sitting out four games but coach Mike Babcock will wait until Wednesday to make a decision on him. Boston: The Bruins insist they remain confident. “If anybody would have told us at the start of the year that we’d be going into a Game 7 in the first round at home, we would have taken it," Boston forward Brad Marchand said. "Whatever has happened in the last six games doesn’t mean anything. ... It’s going to be a challenge. They’re a great team and they’ve played really well in this series. It’s gonna be fun and we’re looking forward to it.” Boston's top line of Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak amassed a staggering 20 points in the first two games of the series, but the unit has been held off the scoresheet in each of the three losses while posting a minus-16 in those games. The pick: The last time Original Six rivals Boston and Toronto met in the postseason, the Bruins needed a miraculous comeback in the final minutes of Game 7 before ousting the Maple Leafs in OT. Now, five years later, Toronto was in position of needing a miracle comeback of its own, trailing this best-of-seven series 3-1 heading into Saturday's Game 5 at Boston's TD Garden. However, the Maple Leafs needed to only look to the past for inspiration, as they also trailed the series 3-1 in 2013, before winning Games 5 and 6 only to become the first team in history to cough up a three-goal third-period lead in Game 7 ( blew a two-goal lead in the final 90 seconds!). This series has been eerily reminiscent of that 2013 meeting. Why should it end differently than five years ago? After converting on 5 of 10 power plays in the first two games, Boston is 1-for-9 on the power play over the past four games. What's more, while Toronto's Andersen has been 'lights out' the last two games, note that Boston goalie ruins G Tuukka Rask is 5-12 in elimination games.I took the Maple Leafs in Game 5 and in Game 6, saying " this series is headed back to Boston for a Game 7." Why should I back off here? I will slightly though, by taking the 1 1/2 goals and making Toronto a 6* play. |
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04-25-18 | Wizards v. Raptors OVER 215.5 | Top | 98-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raptors beat the Wizards in Game 1 by eight points, as the dynamic backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry totaled a modest 28 points. PF Ibaka (23 & 12) was the star, while Wight (18) and Miles (12) played big roles off the bench. However, in Game 2's 130-119 win, DeRzoan (team's leading scorer at 23.0 PPG) exploded for 37 points on 14-of-23 shooting.Center Valanciunas accounted for a double-double (19 & 14), while Miles (18) and Wright (11) again played well off the bench. The Wizards fell behind early in Game 1 and were down 44-27 at the end of the first quarter in Game 2. " The Wizards decided to get physical with the Raptors in Game 3 and it worked, as they won 122-103 . Washington then took Game 4, 106-98.All of a sudden, this series is tied at two-all as Toronto hosts Game 5 on Wednesday. Washington: The Wizards allowed an average of 122 points in the first two games of the series but cut that number down to 100.5 PPG in the next two. Shooting guard Bradley Beal fouled out of Game 4 with just under five minutes left but PG John Wall took over down the stretch and finished with 27 points and 14 assists in the win. When Wall got hurt late in the regular season, there was some talk that Washington was fine without him. No one is saying that now, as Wall is averaging 26.3 points, 13 assists and three steals in the series. Toronto: DeMar DeRozan scored a game-high 35 points in Game 4 but was just 10-of-29 from the floor. "I took some shots that I wish I could have had back," DeRozan told reporters. "But it's just my mindset going out there and being aggressive, wanting to win, wanting to feel like I was doing whatever it took offensively to push us to a win. But with that came some bad shots that I will definitely understand next time." DeRozan and Kyle Lowry (7-of-15) combined for more than half of Toronto's shot attempts in the loss. Toronto's reserves were key in Games 1 & 2 at home but were not ready for primetime in the two games at Washington. The pick: Toronto won a franchise-record 59 games during the regular season and earned the top seed in the East for the first time while playing a brand of basketball that encouraged ball movement and three-point shooting. However, some of those traits were hard to find down the stretch in Game 4's 106-98 setback. The Raptors led by 14 points during the third quarter on Sunday but the score was tied at 92 when Beal fouled out (then Wall took over for the Wizards!). The Raptors used their full bench successfully during the season but they started to again rely heavily on their All-Star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry in the two games in Washington. Toronto needs better balance but a return home could be just what teh doctor ordered. Remember, the Raptors averaged 122.0 PPG in Games 1 & 2 at AirCanada Centre. Washington's Beal averaged 29.5 points in the two home games but just 14 points at Toronto in the first two contests. PF Mike Scott, who averaged 15.3 points in the first three contests, was held to just four points on Sunday (is he returning to earth?). Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-25-18 | Padres v. Rockies -150 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Padres and Rockies opened a three-game series at Coors Field on Monday with San Diego winning 13-5. However, Colorado bounced back from that drubbing with an 8-0 shutout win on Tuesday to even this series. The rubber match of the three-game set goes this afternoon, as Colorado also tries to take a two-game lead in the season series (Rockies currently lead 5-4). The Rockies had allowed double digits in runs in three of their previous five contests and nine in another, so Kyle Freeland combining with two relievers on the shutout, scattering three hits over seven innings, was a welcome relief. Eric Lauer did not fare well for San Diego in his major-league debut, surrendering seven runs on six hits and four walks over three innings, The pitching matchup: Tyson Ross (2-1, 2.81 ERA) will get the ball for San Diego and Jon Gray (1-4, 7.09 ERA) for Colorado. Ross comes in off back-to-back starts, allowing just two runs (one earned) and eight hits while registering 15 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings. He settled for a no-decision at Arizona on Friday, despite striking out 10 while keeping the Diamondbacks hitless for 7 2/3 innings before yielding a run-scoring double and exiting. The bad news here for San Diego is that Ross owns a poor 1-5 record and 3.54 ERA in 12 career appearances against Colorado. In stark contrast to Ross, Gray has been hit hard in each of his last three starts, going 0-3 while surrendering 19 runs (18 ERs) on 26 hits over 15 2/3 innings (10.34 ERA). His latest 'disaster' came on Friday, when he yielded seven runs - six earned - on eight hits and three walks in five frames against the Chicago Cubs. A bright spot is that Gray is 5-3 with a 2.88 ERA in 12 starts versus San Diego. The pick: Colorado is historically an outstanding home team but has opened the 2018 season at 4-7. Expect that to change and while San Diego is 6-6 so far on the road this season, considering that the Padres were 28-53 on the road last season, after going 29-52 the season before, we surely don't expect San Diego to be a .500 road team in 2018. I noted Ross' poor record against Colorado above and will add here that all five of his career losses against the Rockies have come at Coors Field. Meanwhile, Gray's only complete game of his career (a shutout!), has come against the Padres. Make Colorado an 8* play. |
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04-24-18 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 205 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: LaMarcus Aldridge has been the Spurs' lone consistent scorer this series(actually, this season) and he again led the way for San Antonio with 22 points and 10 rebounds in Sunday's Game 4. However, the team's spark was provided by Manu Ginobili, the 40-year-old future Hall of Famer. Ginobili had scored a total of just 19 points in the first three games of the series, as the Spurs fell behind 0-3. However, he scored 16 points in 25 minutes on Sunday, as the Spurs proved they had too much pride to get swept on their homecourt by the Golden State Warriors for the second straight season, earning a 103-90 win in Game 4. San Antonio went 15-of-28 from three-point range in Game 4, while the Warriors shot 37.8% from the floor, including just 7-of-28 on threes. San Antonio: The Spurs will be operating without head coach Gregg Popovich for the third straight game following the death of his wife, as interim head coach Ettore Messina takes over. Aldridge's 22 & 10 was his third straight double-double in the series. San Antonio never trailed on Sunday, this after the Spurs having fallen behind by at least 19 points in each of the first three games of the series. Ginobili and PG Tony Parker set an NBA record on Sunday with their 132nd playoff win as teammates. This marks Game No. 133 but will be it be their last? Golden State: Klay Thompson shot 63.3 percent from the floor and 65 percent from three-point range while averaging 25.7 points in the first three games of the series but slumped to 12 points on 4-of-16 shooting in Game 4. The Warriors committed seven of their 18 turnovers in the first quarter, setting the tone for a sloppy performance. Kevin Durant is averaging 29 points and 9.3 rebounds in the series, while Draymond Green is shooting just 33.3 percent from the floor in the series. The Warriors are not really "the Warriors," without Curry. The Warriors know they got a break drawing the Leonard-less Spurs in the opening round and I can't imagine Golden State will miss a chance to close out the series right here. However, during the regular season, Golden State lost 12 times, after losing just NINE times in making the NBA Finals in each of the last three years (won two NBA titles). What's more, Golden State was a money-burning 16-24-1 ATS at home during the regular season. Sure, the Warriors won and covered Games 1 and 2 at home in this series but I'd prefer to concentrate on the over/under in this contest, as the the Warriors have held the Spurs to just 100.3 PPG in the series, so far. OK, San Antonio went 15 of 28 (53.6 percent) in Game 4 from three-point range but that's after connecting on a combined 20 of 83 (24.1 percent) on three-pointers in the first three games of the series. The Under is a 10* play. |
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04-24-18 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -104 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up:The Philadelphia Phillies last produced a winning season back in 2011 and over the previous five years, have averaged just 69.2 wins per season. However, here in 2018, the Phillies have raced off to a 14-7 mark, including the team's best home start since 1964 in going 9-1. Not to be outdone, the Arizona Diamondbacks' 15-6 mark matches their best 21-game start in franchise history. Winners of four in a row and 13 of 16 overall, the Phillies go for their eighth straight win at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday when they play the opener of a three-game set against the Diamondbacks. Philadelphia recorded its first four-game sweep of Pennsylvania rival Pittsburgh since 1994 when the Phillies outlasted the Pirates 3-2 (11 inn.) on Sunday. Once again, not to be outdone, the Diamondbacks became the first National League team since San Francisco (2003) to win their first seven series of a season with Sunday's 4-2 home victory over the Padres. The pitching matchup: Arizona will send lefty Robbie Ray (2-0, 4.98 ERA) to the mound, while Philadelphia will counter with Vince Velasquez (1-2, 3.80 ERA). Ray is coming off his second straight no-decision on Wednesday, despite allowing just two runs and striking out nine in six innings versus San Francisco (D'backs lost 4-3 in 10 innings). Ray has been reached for five HRs and has walked 14 in 21 2/3 innings through four starts (Arizona is 3-1)..He owns a 2-1 mark and 4.56 ERA in four career outings versus Philadelphia. Velasquez opened 2018 by allowing seven runs (four earned) in just 2 2/3 innings of a 15-2 loss in Atlanta on March 31. However. he has responded with three straight quality starts, although his last outing resulted in a 7-3 loss at Atlanta (again!) on Wednesday. Note that he only allowed three runs on seven hits in six innings in that one. He has thrown six or more innings in each of his last three starts, after lasting that long only five times over the entire 2017 season (starts). Velasquez has not allowed an earned run and has 11 strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings over three career appearances (just one start) against Arizona. The pick: It should not be ignored that Arizona has enjoyed success in Philadelphia, winning seven straight contests by a combined score of 37-14. However, let's also not ignore that this year's Philly team is a "horse of a different color!" Philadelphia starting pitchers have permitted three runs or fewer in each of their last 12 outings, with Velasquez accounting for three of them. Lastly, there is the Phillies' 9-1 home record here in 2018, where they've outscored the opposition by an average of 6.20-to-2.10 RPG. Make Philly a 10* play. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics 'held serve' at Boston in Games 1 and 2, with the Bucks' returning the favor in Games 3 and 4 at Milwaukee. The two teams will both battle history Tuesday night at TD Garden in Game 5. The Bucks are looking for their first series victory since 2001 but have never won a series after trailing 0-2, going 0-17 in such situations. Meanwhile, the Celtics have never lost a series they led 2-0, winning all 35 times going into their current situation. League history tells us that teams are 19-274 all-time when trailing a series 0-2, including the Portland Trail Blazers going out in four straight against the New Orleans Pelicans in the 2018 playoffs (the Spurs, T-wolves and Bucks can add to that sorry history by failing to win their respective series this postseason). Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo is enjoying his time in the spotlight and his reputation for being a clutch player, which was evidenced when he tipped in the winning basket with 5.1 seconds left in Game 4 to give the Bucks a series-tying 104-102 victory. Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists through four games and small forward Khris Middleton has been the second half of Milwaukee's "dynamic duo," averaging 25.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists. Jabari Parker, the 2014 draft's overall No. 2 pick, came up big in the back-to-back victories by averaging 16.5 points, six rebounds, two blocked shots and 1.5 steals, after averaging one point and three rebounds with no blocks or steals in the first two games. The Bucks set a franchise record with 14 blocks in Game 4, with 21-year-old backup C Thon Maker swatting away five shots for the second straight game. Boston: Shooting guard Jaylen Brown continues to excel while picking up the scoring slack in Kyrie Irving's absence. He had 34 points, eight rebounds and three steals in Game 4, his second 30-point effort of the series (he's averaging a team-high 23.8 points in the series). Point guard Terry Rozier scored 23 points in each of Boston's two home wins came back to earth by averaging 9.5 points on 5-of-19 shooting in the two losses in Milwaukee. Marcus Smart (thumb) is eyeing a return for Game 6 if he gets cleared for contact. Boston returns home after shooting 41.4% and 40.0% in the two losses in Milwaukee. The pick: Is it really as simple as coming home for Boston to regain its mojo? Can the Bucks reverse their awful postseason history while in the process, end Boston's perfect record of going 35-0 in series in which the Celtics have gone up 2-0? The winner of this game can't take the series tonight but the winner will put itself in prime to position to win. Antetokounmpo is the series' best player plus I believe Milwaukee is the better team with Irving sidelined for Boston. Make the Bucks an 8* play. |
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04-24-18 | Twins v. Yankees -128 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2018 New York Yankees were expected to be the second coming of the legendary 1927 Yanks but New York found itself a modest 9-9 before ripping off three wins in the last three games. New York's offense is beginning to flex its muscle, as four players homered and every starter scored at least one time for the Yankees in a 14-1 win in the series opener vs. the Twins on Monday (Yanks have outscored opponents 28-3 during its three-game run). Last night's blowout was Minnesota's fourth straight defeat. The now 8-9 Twins are below .500 for the second time this season and during the skid, are getting outscored 40-15 while pitching to a 10.43 ERA. The pitching matchup: The Twins will look to end their skid with Jose Berrios (2-1, 1.63 ERA) taking the mound up against the Yankees' CC Sabathia (0-0, 2.70 ERA). Berrios is unscored upon in three of his first four starts of 2018, after limiting Cleveland to three hits over seven scoreless innings on Wednesday. He has 29 strikeouts against one walk (he's faced 99 batters this season) and opponents are hitting .155 against him. Berrios is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in two career starts against New York but he was reached for three runs on five hits and four walks in just 3 1/3 innings in his only prior outing at Yankee Stadium. Sabathia returned from an early stint on the disabled list Thursday at home against Toronto and gave up two unearned runs in 4 1/3 innings. He has completed five innings just once in his first three outings this season, while throwing an average of just 71 pitches. The 37-year-old defeated the Twins with six solid innings in their lone encounter last season and is 19-9 with a 3.16 ERA in 38 career starts against them. The pick: Berrios won14 games last season but his start in 2018 seems to me like a guy pitching over his head. Not so for the veteran Sabathia, who is coming off a 2017 season in which his plus-$1163 moneyline mark (NYY were 19-8 in his 27 starts) was the fourth-best among all starters last season. If CC was to get the win here, the Twins would be the third team he has at least 20 career wins against (also the Tigers and Royals). Why shouldn't we expect him to get the win? The veteran lefty is 12-2 with a 2.48 ERA in his last 17 starts against the Twins since the start of the 2007 season and 7-1 in 11 starts against them as a Yankees pitcher. Make the Yankees an 8* play. |
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04-23-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +6 | Top | 119-100 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets owned the NBA's best record at 65-17 during teh regular season and guard James Harden is likely to take home his first MVP trophy this season. He is the best player on the team with the best record in the league but he is not the whole team. The Rockets proved that in Game 2 of their series with Minnesota, as despite Harden going 2-of-18 from the floor in Game 2, Houston still managed to post a 102-82 win. Meanwhile, Minnesota clinched its first playoff berth in 14 years with a win against Denver in the regular-season finale but the T-wolves failed to get their offense going in tteh first two games of this series. In particular, All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns needed to get more involved, as he had totaled just 13 points on 5-of-18 shooting in the first two games, after averaging 21.3 PPG during the regular season. Minnesota's first home playoff game since 2004 gave the Timberwolves all the juice they needed to win Game 3 and get back into their first-round Western Conference series against the top-seeded Rockets. Minnesota shot 50 percent from the floor, 55.6 percent from three-point range (15 of 27) and handed out 29 assists against seven turnovers in Game 3 while rolling to a 121-105 win. Karl-Anthony Towns enjoyed his best game of the series with 18 points and 16 rebounds plus the team's best player, Jimmy Butler, scored 28 points after averaging 12.0 in the first two games. Harden scored 29 points in Game 3 to bounce back from that 2-of-18 shooting effort in Game 2 but the Rockets head to Game 4 shooting just 31.5% from three-point range. Houston: Yes, Harden bounced back in Game 3 but Eric Gordon continued to struggle. Gordon averaged 18.0 PPG during the regular season, is averaging just 10.3 PPG in the postseason on 28.2 percent shooting and is 6-of-26 from 3-point range (26.1%). The Rockets have noted that they now need to make an adjustment. Houston wants to get back to its defensive approach and limit Minnesota as it did in the first two games of the series. The Timberwolves averaged 91.5 points per game in the first two games and shot just 38.8 percent from the floor in Game 2. "We knew that was going to be a lot more comfortable coming home," Paul said. "They make a lot more 3s tonight, 15 for 27, and we got to be better defensively. We were just opening up the lane and letting Teague drive and all the other guys, so we know we got to be better." Minnesota: Butler and Towns finally came through but again, the team shot 50 percent, including 15 of 27 on threes. Starting PG Teague also had his best effort of the series in Game 3, scoring 23 points and handing out eight assists. Teague is averaging 15.3 PPG in the series and his backup, Derrick Rose, is averaging 14.0 PPG on 48.7% shooting after averaging a modest 5.8 PPG in nine games with Minnesota in nine games at the end of the regular season. The pick: Only the Warriors scored more points during the regular season than the Rockets' 112.4 PPG. However, Houston has scored 104, 102 and 105 points in the first three games of this series (that's just 103.7 PPG, almost 10 point less than the team's regular season average). Towns not only got more involved on the offensive end (his lack of shots had been a topic all series), as he engaged defenders down low. At the other end of the court, the Timberwolves' defensive effort became contagious team-wide with power forward Taj Gibson defending James Harden one-on-one, resulting in a poor shot attempt. Minnesota has been able to harass Houston into poor shooting from behind the arc and if that continues, this series will be tied at two apiece. That's my bet. Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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04-23-18 | A's -132 v. Rangers | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oakland Athletics begin a nine-game road trip with the opener of a three-game series against the Texas Rangers on Monday. The Athletics head to the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex having won six of their last seven games, after Sunday's 4-1 victory over the Red Sox. That followed Sean Manaea's Saturday no-hitter in which the A's won 3-0. Khris Davis continued his strong performance at the plate on Sunday, delivering an RBI single in the first inning and a three-run homer in the eighth to give him hits in 10 of his last 11 games. Posting back-to-back victories over the best team in the major leagues has to give Oakland (now 11-11), some confidence as the A's begin their nine-game road trip. Texas halted its three-game slide on Sunday with a 7-4 win over Seattle in which Joey Gallo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa drove in two runs apiece. The victory also ended a six-game skid at home for the Rangers, who have not seen much go right through their first 23 games of the season (Texas checks in at 8-15, already eight games back of the first-place Astros in the AL West). The pitching matchup: Oakland will send Trevor Cahill (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound, while Texas will counter with lefty Matt Moore (1-3, 5.59 ERA). Cahill's 2018 debut debut came just this past Tuesday, when he picked up a victory over the Chicago White Sox after striking out eight and scattering five hits over seven scoreless innings. Cahill began the 2018 season with Triple-A Nashville after signing a one-year contract in March. He has enjoyed success against Texas in his career, going 10-4 with a 2.69 ERA in 17 career starts. His 10 victories are his most versus any opponent. Moore is coming off the best of his four starts this season, a win at Tampa Bay on Tuesday in which he allowed an unearned run and five hits over seven innings. Signing Moore off last season's horrific year was a head-scratcher. He was 6-15 (5.52 ERA) with the Giants and his minus-$1223 moneyline mark (Giants were 10-21 in his starts), was among the worst of all starters. He's had big issues at home in the early going, surrendering 13 runs (12 earned) on 19 hits and seven walks over 12 1/3 in three starts (8.76 ERA), all losses. The pick: Cahill looked sharp in his 2018 debut plus has that excellent career mark against the Rangers, so why not take the A's? After all, not only has Moore struggled badly in his first three home starts for his latest team but in five career starts against Oakland, he is 1-2 with a horrid 7.07 ERA. Want more? Texas is 3-10 at home to open 2018, allowing 6.38 RPG! Make Oakland a 10* play. |
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04-23-18 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs +110 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Bruins blew a chance at capturing the East's No. 1 seed when they lost a home contest to the Panthers in the team's final game of the regular season. However, The Bruins regrouped quickly and won the first two games of their series with the Maple Leafs, 5-1 and 7-3. The series shifted to Toronto for Game 3, where the Maple Leafs were able to reverse the momentum of the series with a 4-2 home win on Monday night. Toronto had a chance to level the best-of-seven series in Game 4 on Thursday night but come to Boston for Saturday's Game 5 lamenting a missed opportunity in Thursday's 3-1 setback, despite the Bruins playing without the team's top-line center, Patrice Bergeron (he was a late-scratch with an upper body injury). the Bruins prevailed to gi up 3-1. However, one night after Pittsburgh and Nashville both failed to win close-out games on home ice, the Boston Bruins suffered a similar fate in their bid to KO the Toronto Maple Leafs in their Eastern Conference first-round series, The Maple Leafs scored a pair of early goals and rode a superb 42-save performance by Frederik Andersen to stave off elimination with a 4-3 victory. The Bruins get another chance to send the Maple Leafs packing when they take a 3-2 series lead into Monday's Game 6 at Toronto's Air Canada Centre. Boston: Goaltender Tuukka Rask has guided Boston to the Stanley Cup Final (2013) and won a Vezina Trophy but he lasted only nine shots and was yanked midway through the second period Saturday after giving up four goals to put his team in a catch-up situation. That was the bad news but there was some good news, as center Patrice Bergeron was back in the lineup Saturday after sitting out Game 4. That said, Boston's top line, which amassed 20 points in the first two games, was held off the scoresheet. Toronto: Speaking of No. 1 units, there was speculation as to whether head coach Mike Babcock would switch Mitch Marner to Auston Matthews' line to ignite a spark. However, Babcock elevated Connor Brown alongside Matthews, moved William Nylander to a newly formed unit with Kadri and Andreas Johnsson, and put Kasperi Kapanen with Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk. Brown and Johnsson each scored their first career playoff goals and van Riemsdyk also converted. "I’m not sure we’re going to have the same lineup," Babcock said Sunday. "With last change at home, might make that different. I don’t know for sure." The pick: The last time Original Six rivals Boston and Toronto met in the postseason, the Bruins needed a miraculous comeback in the final minutes of Game 7 before ousting the Maple Leafs in overtime. Five years later, Toronto is in position of needing a miracle comeback of its own, trailing this best-of-seven series 3-1 heading into Saturday's Game 5 at Boston's TD Garden. The Maple Leafs can look to the past for inspiration, as they also trailed the series 3-1 in 2013, before blowing a two-goal lead in the final 90 seconds of Game 7! I took the Maple Leafs in Game 5, with Toronto using a quick early scoring burst to hold on due to a superb effort from Frederik Andersen (note: Andersen became the fifth netminder in franchise history to make at least 40 saves for a win in an elimination game). Make Toronto a 10* play here in Game 6, as this series is headed back to Boston for a Game 7. |
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04-22-18 | Nationals v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers have won five straight NL West titles and last season took Houston to a Game 7 in the World Series before losing. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have won four of the last six NL East titles, winning between between 95 and 98 games in those four division-winning seasons. The two teams entered the 2018 season as the favorites to win the National League pennant. However, April hasn't exactly followed the script for either club. The Nats opened their three-game weekend series with the Dodgers at 9-10 and the Dodgers checked in at 8-9. Washington won 5-2 on Friday, while LA rebounded with a 4-0 win last night.The two NL 'heavyweights' will square off tonight on ESPN in the rubber match of their three-game series, with the winner beginning the new week on Monday at .500 and the loser at two games under that mark. The Dodgers have won five of their last six contests overall, while the Nats are 3-2 on their nine-game road trip (Washington heads to San Francisco for three games beginning Monday). The pitching matchup: Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 3.86 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and goes up against LA left-hander Alex Wood (0-2, 3.91 ERA). Hellickson made his Nationals debut on Monday against the New York Mets but did not factor in the decision after giving up two runs over 4 2/3 innings. He was signed to a minor-league contract in March after pitching for both Baltimore and Philadelphia last season. Hellickson is 69-69 (4.12 ERA) as he begins his 9th big-league season and 0-1 with a 6.88 ERA in four career starts versus the Dodgers. Wood bounced back from a rocky outing against Oakland by giving up just one unearned run and two hits over 5 1/3 innings versus San Diego this past Tuesday. He is still is seeking his first victory of 2018 despite limiting batters to a .186 average and recording 22 strikeouts against one walk. Wood has gone 4-3 with a 2.51 ERA in 10 career starts against Washington, including six scoreless innings at Nationals Park on Sept. 15. The pick: As far as primetime games before a national audience go, it is hard to do much better than the two best teams in baseball over the last six years. Los Angeles began the 2018 season with only four victories for its worst 13-game start in 24 years behind a mostly lethargic offense. However, the bats have 'woken up' with LA winning five of six. The Dodgers were a MLB-best 57-24 at Dodger Stadium in 2017 but are just 5-6 at home to open 2018. Look for a "return to form" shortly for LA and the Dodgers begin just that by taking this final game of their weekend series with the Nats. After all, the Nationals are only 7-13 against the Dodgers since the start of the 2015 season and Jeremy Hellickson isn't exactly a "stopper!" Make the Dodgers an 8* play. |
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04-22-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 219 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raptors beat the Wizards in Game 1 by eight points, as the dynamic backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry totaled a modest 28 points. PF Ibaka (23 & 12) was the star, while Wight (18) and Miles (12) played big roles off the bench. However, in Game 2's 130-119 win, DeRzoan (team's leading scorer at 23.0 PPG) exploded for 37 points on 14-of-23 shooting.Center Valanciunas accounted for a double-double (19 & 14), while Miles (18) and Wright (11) again played well off the bench. The Wizards fell behind early in Game 1 and were down 44-27 at the end of the first quarter in Game 2. "We need a better start," Washington head coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "All five guys need to lock in defensively. They've gotten free for a lot of jump shots, and give them credit, they made them. ... But we've got to be a little better. We've got to have a better start. It's not the only thing, but we've got to start there and then go from there." The Wizards decided to get physical with the Raptors in Game 3 and it worked, giving Washington a chance to even its best-of-seven first-round series when the teams meet for Game 4 in the nation's capital on Sunday. In a game that featured five technical fouls and plenty of chippy action, the eighth-seeded Wizards routed the top-seeded Raptors 122-103 on Friday to pull within 2-1 in the series. Toronto: "They came out and punched us," Toronto head coach Dwane Casey - whose team averaged 122 points in two victories at home to start the series - told reporters. "And we allowed them to." The top-seeded Raptors received 23 points from DeMar DeRozan had 23 points and Lowry 19 (plus eight assists) but the team's backcourt duo also combined for eight of Toronto's 18 turnovers. A bigger issue was Toronto's vaunted bench struggled to shoot just 10-for-29 (34.5%) with none of the seven reserves scoring in double figures. That unit is usually led by backup guard Fred VanVleet,but he missed his second game in the series due to a bruised shoulder and is considered day-to-day. Washington: John Wall and Bradley Beal scored 28 points apiece for Washington, which shot 55.3 percent overall and scored at least 30 points in each of the first three quarters. Beal had averaged 28.8 points in four meetings with the Raptors during the regular season but had produced a total of just 28 through the first two games of the series before breaking out Friday. Wall added 14 assists in the rout and he is averaging 26.7 points, 12.7 assists and 2.7 steals in the series. Center Marcin Gortat had 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting in Game 3, after being held scoreless in 12 minutes of Game 2. Reserve PF Mike Scott is 18-of-24 from the floor in the series (including 6-of-7 from three-point range), while averaging 15.3 PPG (he averaged 8.8 PPG in the regular season). The pick: The Raptors seemed comfortable playing the role of the "Big Dog" in Games 1 and 2 but that all changed Friday night, as the Wizards dominated Game 3. If that contest was a "must win" for Washington, then so is this one, as a loss means returning to Toronto (where the Raptors are 36-7 SU this season) to face an elimination game. The winner of each of the last two games has scored 130 and 122 points, with the two finals averaging 237.0 PPG. No way this game will be played with that kind of pace. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-22-18 | Warriors v. Spurs +7 | Top | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors struggled down the stretch of the regular season due to injuries, losing 10 of their final 17 games. However, Golden State got a break in drawing the Kawhi Leonard-less Spurs in the first round. The Warriors have won and covered each of the first three games of this best-of-seven series and on Sunday, can sweep the San Antonio Spurs out of the postseason for the second straight year. The Warriors knocked the Spurs out in the Western Conference finals last spring and are trying to do the same two rounds earlier this time around Sunday afternoon at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. The teams could not have had a more contrasting series over the first three games, as for everything the Spurs have done wrong, Golden State has done right. It's been a totally dominating performance so far for the defending NBA champions. Golden State: The Warriors are without Stephen Curry (he is out rehabbing a knee injury) plus they did see Kevin Durant and Shaun Livingston exit late in Game 3 after rolling ankles, although neither injury is considered serious. "We want to not come back, limit our road travel and expand our time to rest so we can get our best guys healthy, like Steph (Curry), KD and Shaun," shooting guard Klay Thompson told reporters. "That’s our motivation." The Warriors have limited San Antonio to an average of 96.7 points in the series and the defensive effort of All-Star forward Draymond Green is the key. "He's been fantastic, defensively," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters of Green. "He’s been all over the place. This is a team that you have to disrupt. They're excellent with their execution ... and Draymond is as good as anybody I’ve ever seen in terms of recognizing a play and blowing it up." Meanwhile, KD (27.3 PPG) and Thompson (25.7 PPG on 63.3% shooting, including 65% from beyond the arc), are handling the offensive end of the court. San Antonio: LaMarcus Aldridge is being asked to carry the team in the continued absence of Kawhi Leonard, who is away from the team while rehabbing a quad injury (does anyone really know what's up?). Aldridge turned in his second straight double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds in Game 3. Veteran PG Tony Parker came off the bench and enjoyed his best game of the series with 16 points in 17 minutes on Thursday, while fellow PG Patty Mills is stepping up as well, averaging 17.5 points in the last two games after scoring just five points in Game 1. The pick: "Our guys focused in and we came in and we played," said Aldridge after Game 3. "It's been the same thing. We just aren't making shots that are there" He's right about that, as the Spurs are shooting a woeful 24.1% on threes through the first three games. However, this is a prideful bunch and I expect a great effort from the Spurs in this one. Upset alert? Just maybe but let's take the points and make San Antonio an 8* play. |
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04-22-18 | Penguins -147 v. Flyers | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Flyers lost Games 3 and 4 at home to the Penguins to fall behind 3-1 in this best-of-seven series. They limped back to Pittsburgh for Game 5 but the Flyers extended their Eastern Conference first-round series by defeating the Penguins in Pittsburgh for the second time in three games. Center and Selke Trophy finalist Sean Couturier, who returned from a one-game absence due to a lower-body injury, scored the go-ahead goal with 1:15 remaining in the third period of Friday's 3-2 win. The Flyers now find themselves trailing 3-2 in the series, and once again look to stave off elimination in Game 6 on Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh: Superstar captain Sidney Crosby was held reasonably in check with one assist and a minus-2 rating on Friday. Evgeni Malkin and Patric Hornqvist will be "game-time decisions" in Game 6, per head coach Mike Sullivan, with the former laboring after Jori Lehtera fell on his left leg in the first period while the latter has missed the last two games with an upper-body injury. Malkin returned to the second period and logged 20:22 of playing time. Malkin did not practice, and coach Mike Sullivan did not comment on his status, saying all players are game-time decisions. Malkin was the Penguins' leading scorer in the regular season () and he has three goals and five points in the series. Derick Brassard likely would be elevated from the third line to second should the former Hart Trophy recipient's injury be too much after the adrenaline wears off. "(Brassard) is an important player for us, regardless of who's in the lineup. He's a good player. I thought (Friday) night was his best performance as a Penguin," Sullivan said of Brassard, who notched an assist in Game 5 and has three points (one goal, two assists) in the series. Philadelphia: Couturier had the game-winner on Friday but Valtteri Filppula turned in his most impressive performance as a member of the Flyers in Game 5, netting a short-handed goal to forge a tie late in the second period while setting up two others after failing to dent the scoresheet in his nine previous outings. "Fil's just a really good, two-way veteran. Very sound up and down the middle of the rink," Michal Neuvirth, a surprise starter in Game 5, turned aside 30 shots - including a diving stop on Crosby with 50 seconds remaining in the third period - to increase his postseason save percentage to a sterling .930 in 15 career tilts. The pick: Neuvirth seems to be Philly's likely starter in net but his "opposite" number will be Pittsburgh's Matt Murray, who sports a sizzling 9-1 record in his career in the next game after a postseason loss. Let's also not ignore what the Pens have done in four games this season on Philly's home ice. Pittsburgh has posted lopsided wins by the scores of 5-1, 5-2, 5-1 and 5-0 , with the latter two coming in Game 3 and 4 of this series. Penguins superstar captain Sidney Crosby has tuned out Flyers fans and the team itself in Philadelphia, erupting for 10 points (two goals, eight assists) and a plus-8 rating in four games this season at Wells Fargo Center. Make Pittsburgh an 8* play. |
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04-22-18 | Pirates v. Phillies -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates earned wild card bids in three consecutive years from 2013-2015, while averaging 93.3 wins per season.. However, the Pirates lost all three of those winner-take-all matchups. The 2016 (78 wins) and 2017 (75) seasons saw thew Pirates play sub-.500 baseball and 2018 began with few expectations for the franchise. However, the Pirates surprised most (all?) observers by opening with wins in 11 of their first 15 games. The team's fast start has 'hit a wall' as of late, as Pittsburgh's offense has been in a 'deep freeze.' Pittsburgh has lost five of its last six and the Pirates have manged to score a total of only five runs in the team's five losses. That includes them totaling just three runs in dropping the first three contests of their four-game series with the Phillies. The 13-7 Phillies improved to 8-1 at home with Saturday's 6-2 triumph, moving six games over .500 behind a thriving pitching staff (team ERA of 3.14 ranks 5th) and a young offense led by Rhys Hoskins (.328 / 4 HRs / 19 RBI). Hoskins homered and drove in four runs on Saturday. The pitching matchup: The Pirates hand the ball to Trevor Williams (3-1, 1.93 ERA), while the Phillies will try to polish off the sweep behind Nick Pivetta (1-0, 2.49 ERA). Williams has pitched very well, losing for the first time in 2018 his last time out. He only allowed two runs on four hits and three walks over six innings against the Colorado Rockies but took the hard-luck 2-0 setback. The 25-year-old has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any of his four 2018 outings. Williams lost his only start against Philadelphia last season, surrendering three runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings. Pivetta is rolling along as well, allowing two or less runs in each of his last three starts. He has not factored in the decision in either of his last two starts, despite holding the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves to a total of three runs in 12 innings and owns 21 strikeouts with just two walks in 21 2/3 total innings on the season. Pivetta is making his first career start against the Phillies. The pick: Pittsburgh's fast start seems to be quickly fading into the rear-view mirror, while the Phillies' first-year manager Gabe Kapler is riding good pitching and timely that is adding up to more confidence for his young team. Kapler is "working the numbers hard," trying to get playing time spread equally and the players are said to be feeling good about where they are at in 2018. No reason to buck the Philies here, as they are 8-1 at home, outscoring opponents on average, 6.56-to-2.11 RPG. Surely not with a Pittsburgh team which has scored just three times in losing the first three games of this series, while accumulating only 16 hits so far (.168 team BA!). Make Philadelphia a 10* play. |
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04-21-18 | Giants v. Angels -186 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants opened their three-game IL series with the Angels by taking Friday night's game 8-1. Jeff Samardzija came off the disabled list and tossed five scoreless innings in Friday’s 8-1 victory, but the real story was San Francisco's sudden power surge. The Giants had scored a total of only six runs over their previous four games (1-3) but Mac Williamson hit a two-run HR in his season debut on Friday plus Nick Hundley and Andrew McCutchen each homered .They provided a much-needed boost for the Giants’ offense, which entered the game hitting .154 (19-for-123) with runners in scoring position. The Angels have lost four in a row following a seven-game winning streak and need more production from right fielder Kole Calhoun, who was dropped to eighth in the order Friday and is hitting .192 after going hitless in three at-bats. Japanese two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani (.342 / 3 HRs / 11 RBI) had two singles while batting sixth and hopes to take the mound on Monday after leaving his last outing early with a blister on his right middle finger. The pitching matchup: The Giants will send lefty Derek Holland (0-2, 4.60 ERA) to the mound while the Angels counter with Garrett Richards (2-0, 3.60 ERA). Holland is making his fourth start for the Giants (team is 0-3) and he's seeking his first win with his latest team, after allowing three runs over 4 2/3 innings against San Diego last Saturday in a 5-4 team loss (he took a no-decision). The 31-year-old has appeared in more games against the Angels than any other team over his career, going 10-8 with a 5.21 ERA in 28 games (25 starts). Richards struggled with his control again last Saturday against Kansas City but earned the win after giving up one run on one hit over five-plus innings. The injury-plagued 29-year-old has walked at least three batters in each of his first four starts while striking out 24 across 20 innings (Angels are 3-1 in his 2018 starts). Richards has never faced the Giants but is 4-2 with a 1.42 ERA in 18 career interleague games (11 starts) and has limited Austin Jackson to one hit in 15 at-bats. The pick: San Francisco is 7-2 this season when scoring first and 1-9 in games their opponent scores first. If LA can score first....Sure, the Angels have been outscored 35-4 during their four-game losing streak but the team was off to a 13-3 prior to that. The bottom line here is that Holland has been less that impressive in his first three starts and Richards will face a SF lineup that comes in averaging only 3.11 RPG, ranking 29th of 30 MLB teams. Make the LAA a 6* play. |
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04-21-18 | Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Bruins blew a chance at capturing the East's No. 1 seed when they lost a home contest to the Panthers in the team's final game of the regular season. However, The Bruins regrouped quickly and won the first two games of their series with the Maple Leafs, 5-1 and 7-3. The series shifted to Toronto for Game 3, where the Maple Leafs were able to reverse the momentum of the series with a 4-2 home win on Monday night. Toronto had a chance to level the best-of-seven series in Game 4 on Thursday night but come to Boston for Saturday's Game 5 lamenting a missed opportunity in Thursday's 3-1 setback, despite the Bruins playing without the team's top-line center, Patrice Bergeron (he was a late-scratch with an upper body injury). Toronto: The Maple Leafs will receive a boost with the return of center Nazem Kadri, a 32-goal scorer during the regular season who received a three-game suspension for a dangerous hit on Boston's Tommy Wingels in the series opener. Kadri's return will mean a demotion for Tomas Plekanec, who scored the team's only goal Thursday (but it was his first since he was acquired from Montreal). Auston Matthews had 63 points in 62 regular season games this year but has just one goal in teh series, being held off the scoresheet in three of the four games. The team's leading goal score, van Riensdyk (36), has a modest two goals in the series, his only points. Boston: Bergeron, who is up for his fifth Selke Trophy as the game's best defensive forward, collected five assists in the first two games but with Riley Nash taking his place, Brad Marchand scored a goal and David Pastrnak continued his brilliant play with two assists to bump his series point total up to 11. Bergeron skated on his own Friday, which was called a "positive" by head coach Bruce Cassidy, who said he will make a decision on the four-time Selke Trophy winner's status at Saturday's morning skate. Goaltender Tuukka Rask has been overshadowed by the offensive exploits through much of the series but he answered the call in Game 4 by turning aside 31 of 32 shots in what Marchand termed a "phenomenal game. He’s one of the best goalies in the world and he gives us an opportunity to win every night.” The pick: The last time Original Six rivals Boston and Toronto met in the postseason, the Bruins needed a miraculous comeback in the final minutes of Game 7 before ousting the Maple Leafs in overtime. Five years later, Toronto is in position of needing a miracle comeback of its own, trailing this best-of-seven series 3-1 heading into Saturday's Game 5 at Boston's TD Garden. The Maple Leafs can look to the past for inspiration, as they also trailed the series 3-1 in 2013, before blowing a two-goal lead in the final 90 seconds of Game 7! Take the 1 1/2 goals and make Toronto an 8* play. |
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04-21-18 | Mariners -157 v. Rangers | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners scored four runs in the ninth inning last night to win the series-opener over the Texas Rangers, 6-2. The team's ninth-inning splurge was timely, considering Seattle had scored just seven runs over its previous previous five games. Texas knows more than a little about a lack of scoring too, as the Rangers have scored two or fewer runs nine times this season in opening 7-14. Seattle sits at 10-8 after Friday's win The pitching matchup: Seattle lefty James Paxton (1-1, 4.57 ERA) gets the nod for the Mariners and will be opposed by Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.45 ERA), a veteran who apparently has a lot left in his 44-year-old right arm. Paxton entered the season primed for a big campaign after the oft-injured lefty put together his best season in 2017, finishing with career highs in wins, starts (24), innings (136) and strikeouts (156). He was named the AL's Pitcher of the Month in July when he won all six of his starts. Paxton picked up his first victory of the season Monday when he gave up one run and three hits over six innings. He has now given up fa modest five runs over his last three starts (2.65 ERA) after being roughed up for six runs on six hits in 4 2/3 innings by Cleveland on March 31. Paxton is 2-4 with a 4.62 ERA in 10 career starts against Texas. Colon took a perfect game into the eighth inning of his last start against the Houston Astros, before allowing a double. That hit was the only one allowed by Colon in 7 2/3 innings but he charged with a run later in the inning for a no-decision in a game decided in 10 innings. Colon is making his fifth appearance (third start) for the Rangers and he has a stellar 0.70 WHIP while holding opponents to a .177 batting average. Colon has been around 'forever' and is 20-12 with a 3.84 ERA in 37 career starts against Seattle. The pick: The 44-year-old Colon flirted with a perfect game in his last outing, becoming the oldest pitcher to take a no-hitter into the eighth inning since Kansas City's Gaylord Perry at 44 years, 338 days on Aug. 18, 1983, at Baltimore. That said, it's VERY early and I am not buying into Colon having found the "fountain of youth." After all, Colon made 28 starts in 2017 (for Atlanta and Minnesota), posting a 6.48 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, while opponents batted .318 against him. In contrast, see above for a reminder of Paxton's 2017 season and remember he owns a 2.65 ERA over his last three outings. Make Seattle an 8* play. |
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04-21-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +6 | Top | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets owned the NBA's best record at 65-17 and guard James Harden is likely to take home his first MVP trophy this season. He is the best player on the team with the best record in the league but he is not the whole team. The Rockets proved that in Game 2 of their series with Minnesota, as despite Harden going 2-of-18 from the floor in Game 2, Houston still managed to post a 102-82 win. Minnesota clinched its first playoff berth in 14 years with a win against Denver in the regular-season finale but the T-wolves have failed to get their offense going in this series. In particular, All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns needs to get more involved, as he's totaled 13 points on 5-of-18 shooting in the first two games, after averaging 21.3 PPG during the regular season. Houston: The Rockets' supporting cast stepped up to help Harden on Wednesday, with Gerald Green coming off the bench for 21 points and Trevor Ariza adding 15. Fellow All Star Chris Paul added 27 points and eight assists in Game 2, after a so-so Game 1 in which he shot just 5 of 14 with 14 points. All-in-all, the Rockets only shot 36.5 percent from the floor in Game 2 and James Harden was limited to 12 points, yet Houston won by 20 after squeaking by with a three-point win in Game 1. "We haven't played very well so far," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told the Houston Chronicle. "It'll be crazy up there. They haven't been in the playoffs for a long time. It will be a very loud crowd. We have to do our part, play defense and take the crowd out of it. We have to be ready for all they got. Whatever they have left, we're going to get it full throttle right when we get on the floor to start the game." Minnesota: The T-wolves know all about "not playing well!" Not only has Towns been a "no-show" but the team's best all-around player, Jimmy Butler, has averaged 12.0 PPG on 41.2% shooting (averaged 22.2 PPG on 47.4% shooting in the regular season). Minnesota was actually the aggressor early in Game 2, leading after the first quarter. However, the T-wolves shot 38.8 percent from the floor for teh game. Swingman Andrew Wiggins scored 13 poinst and was one of just three players on the team to score in double figures (Butler had 11 and Nemanja Bjelica scored a team-high 16 points, after going scoreless in Game 1). The pick: Minnesota remains confident despite being in an 0-2 hole and is excited to play the franchise's first home playoff game since Game 5 of the Western Conference finals in 2004. "It feels good," Timberwolves swingman Andrew Wiggins told reporters after Friday's practice. "Houston took care of business up there and now we’ve got to do the same up here. I know the fans will be excited, the atmosphere will be crazy and the whole team, we're confident. We're ready." Minnesota was one of the league's best teams at home with a 30-11 record this year and a loss here, all but ends the series. Minnesota can draw confidence from the fact that the Rockets are shooting only 29.2 percent from three-point range in the series. The home dog 'barks' in this one. Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 215 | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets had the best regular season of any NBA team but the Philadelphia 76ers have stolen most of the headlines "down the stretch" with the team's 16-0 run to close the regular season. The final eight games in the team's winning streak came with Philly's All Star center Joel Embiid (22.9 & 11.0 in the regular season) sidelined with an orbital fracture.The 76ers opened their first round series (with Embiid still sidelined) by routing the Heat by 27 points but their 17-game winning streak came to a crashing halt in Game 2, as the Heat won 1113-103. Embiid had posted an Instagram message before Game 2 that strongly indicated his desire to return, indicating that he was being "babied" by the team staff, and he participated in portions of practice the next two days. Still, Embiid's status for Game 3 remained 'cloudy.' "It's still moving forward," head coach Brett Brown told reporters Tuesday. "What I can say is there is a very unified effort with his representation and the people around him. With the people that did the operation, the doctors, with our medical staff, with the team, with me, the coaching staff. We're all doing this. There's a unified sort of spirit and line of communication." However, Ebiid would start Game 3 and had 23 points and seven rebounds as the 76ers routed Miami 128-108. As the teams get set to meet again at AmericanAirlines Arena on Saturday, the Heat will need to corral Embiid but Miami also needs to get its center, Hassan Whiteside, more involved. Philadelphia: Naturally, Embiid was Game 3's biggest storyline, as he adjusted to wearing a mask to protect the healing eye bone and had an excellent game under the circumstances (he had missed 10 consecutive contests). However, let's not ignore rookie PG Ben Simmons and second-year PF Dario Saric. Saric led Philly with 30 points in Game 3 and is averaging 21.3 & 7.0 in the series. As for Simmons, he's averaging 20.0-10.0-9.7 in his first three career playoff games (does he think he's Magic?). Philly's depth is impressive, led by SG Belinelli (20.7) and PF Ilysova (13.0 & 9.3). Miami: Whiteside played just 13 minutes on Thursday, in part because of foul trouble. He contributed just five points, two rebounds and one block. "I want to get more minutes," said Whiteside, who led the NBA with 3.7 blocks in 2015-2016 and with 14.1 rebounds last season. "Even with the fouls, I could've been out there. I would not have fouled out." Whiteside is averaged 14.0 points, 11.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocks during the regular season but his minutes per game were down seven minutes from last season and even more in the playoffs. Whiteside said Heat coach Erik Spoelstra "wants me to just be in a corner and set picks." Meanwhile, Spoelstra said "it's part of my job to figure out how he can get to his strengths and make an impact on defense and rebounding." Will (can?) Miami fix this? Miami was led by point guard Goran Dragic's 23 points and eight assists (his second straight 20-point game) and from reserve forward Justise Winslow scored a season-high 19 points and grabbed 10 rebounds. However, Miami's top three shooting guards -- Tyler Johnson, Dwyane Wade and Wayne Ellington -- combined for just 21 points. The pick: With Philly up 2-1 in the series, the outcome of this Game 4 will either put Philly in a commanding position (up 3-1) or a Miami win will portend a possible seven-game 'war.' The teams four regular season meetings averaged just 204 points and this pivotal Game 4 brings out the defensive side of both clubs. With the total currently right around 215, the play is an 8* on the Under. |
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04-20-18 | Nationals +132 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 132 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers have won five straight NL West titles and last season took Houston to a Game 7 in the World Series before losing. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have won four of the last six NL East titles, winning between between 95 and 98 games in those four division-winning seasons. The two teams entered the 2018 season as the favorites to win the National League pennant. However, April hasn't exactly followed the script for either club. The Nats open their series with the Dodgers at 9-10 and the Dodgers check in at 8-9. Both teams have started to pick up the pace in the last week and the winner of tonight's game will climb back to the .500 mark. Washington scored 29 runs while opening the season with four straight victories but then totaled just 27 runs while dropping eight of its next 10. However, the Nationals have scored at least five runs in each of their last five contests, although they missed out on a road series sweep of the NL East-leading New York Mets on Wednesday when they surrendered nine runs in the eighth inning of an 11-5 defeat. Los Angeles began the 2018 season with only four victories for its worst 13-game start in 24 years behind a mostly lethargic offense. However, the bats have been red-hot during a four-game winning streak during which the club is averaging 9.3 runs per contest. The Dodgers began their surge by ending their 11-game skid against Arizona in convincing fashion Sunday ,before outscoring San Diego 30-10 over the next three days to sweep the Padres in San Diego. The pitching matchup: It doesn't get much better than this, as Washington's Max Scherzer (3-1, 1.33 ERA) squares off against LA's Clayton Kershaw (1-2, 1.73 ERA). Scherzer is a three-time Cy Young Award winner and was named the NL Player of the Week for his dominant efforts last week. He allowed just two hits while striking out 10 en route to his fifth career shutout on April 9 over the Braves (2-0). He then delivered an 11-strikeout performance against Colorado this past Saturday in which the only hit he allowed over seven innings was a two-run HR in a 6-2 victory. Scherzer is 3-4 with a 2.92 ERA against Los Angeles. Kershaw is a seven-time All-Star and two-time CY Young winner. He finally got the run support he had been lacking and earned his first victory in a 12-strikeout performance on Sunday against Arizona, giving up only a solo HR among the two hits he allowed over seven innings of a win. he's been moved up a day to fill in for the injured Rich Hill but will still be pitching on regular rest. Kershaw is 11-2 with a 1.97 ERA in 15 appearances (14 starts) against Washington. The pick: These two pitchers have combined to win five of the last seven NL Cy Young awards, so a pitchers duel is expected. Washington has fared better away from home this season (6-3 while averaging 6.00 RPG, compared to an unexpected 3-7 mark at home) and after going a MLB-best 57-24 at Dodgers Stadium in 2017, LA is just 4-5 at home to open 2018. Make the Nats an 8* play. |
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04-20-18 | Avalanche v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators were the No. 8 seed in the West last year but made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals before falling in six games to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Predators were the NHL's best team in the the 2017-18 regular season, going 53-18-11 for a league-high 117 points. However, the Predators had looked less than dominating against the 8th-seeded Avalanche, surrendering the first goal in each of their first three playoff contests. Yes, the Predators overcame early deficits in the first two to take a 2-0 lead but they were unable to do the same in the third.Nashville took a 3-0 lead in Game 4 of the series but the Avs wouldn't go away. That said, the Preds held on for a 3-2 win and are now one win away from advancing to this year's second round. The Avalanche went from the NHL's worst team a year ago (by a wide margin) to a team that went 43-30-9 this season, while earning the West's final wild card spot with 95 points (one more than the Blues' 94!). Colorado has not backed down this series. Potential Hart Trophy finalist Nathan MacKinnon said, "We're still in it, it's not over yet. We can't win the series if we don't win Game 5." Colorado: MacKinnon scored twice to help Colorado snap a 12-game winless skid to Nashville in Colorado's 5-3 Game 3 win but he saw his five-game point streak (four goals, three assists) halted on Wednesday.in Game 4. Andrew Hammond has been confirmed to start in Game 5, after fellow goaltender Jonathan Bernier sustained a lower-body while making his eighth straight start contest in place of Semyon Varlamov, who is nursing a knee injury. "We've seen him catch lightning in a bottle before and win some hockey games. Hopefully he can do it again," Colorado head coach Jared Bednar said of the 30-year-old Hammond. Bednar is referring to when Hammond took the hockey world by storm in 2014-15 when he posted a 20-1-2 mark with the Ottawa Senators Nashville: Filip Forsberg has been instrumental in Nashville's success with five points (three goals, two assists) in the series, including a highlight-reel goal and an assist in Wednesday's 3-2 win in Denver. Defenseman Mattias Ekholm set up a pair of goals in Game 4 to increase his assist total to four in as many contests. The Predators will attempt to close out the series without forward Ryan Hartman, who was suspended one game by the NHL on Thursday for an illegal check to the head of Colorado's Carl Soderberg at 4:42 of the third period. Hartman likely will be replaced on the fourth line by rookie Eeli Tolvanen, who has yet to record a point in three regular-season games since being selected with the 30th overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft. Vezina Trophy finalist Pekka Rinne turned aside 31 shots in Game 4 to give the Predators a commanding series lead heading back to Nashville, where he sports a 23-13-0 career mark in the playoffs with a 2.10 goals-against average. The pick: The Predators will take the ice having won 13 of their previous 14 games against the Avalanche plus they've won 15 of their last 17 postseason home games at Bridgestone Arena. It would be very hard to go against Nashville in this spot but understandably, the price is prohibitive. However, Nashville has scored five goals in each of its first two home games of this series and tonight will face Andrew Hammond, who has played just one game during the regular season and only 17 1/2 minutes in this series. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-20-18 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 202.5 | Top | 92-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Bucks took the Boston Celtics to overtime in Game 1, before falling 113-107. However, Milwaukee fell behind by 11 points after the first quarter of Game 2 and went on to lose120-106. Bucks guard Eric Bledsoe ws quoted as saying he didn't know who Terry Rozier was. He sure knows now, as the unsung Rozier (in the staring lineup due to Kyrie Irving's season-ending knee injury) has torched the Bucks for 23 points in each of the first two games and has yet to commit a turnover. Meanwhile, Bledsoe is averaging just 10.5 PPG on 9-of-25 shooting while making six turnovers. Milwaukee has lost in the first round in its past seven postseason appearances, having last prevailed in 2001, when it reached the Eastern Conference finals before losing to the Philadelphia 76ers (remember Allen Iverson?). Boston: The Celtics came into this series not only missing Irving (24.4 & 5.1 APG) but also Marcus Smart (10.2-3.5-4.8), one of their best defenders. While Rozier has been the biggest surprise, second-year swingman Brown leads the team in scoring at 25.0 PPG. Five players are averaging in double digits, with Brown and Rozier being followed by Horford (20.8-8.5-4.0), Morris (19.5 & 6.0) and Tatum (11.5 & 8.5). Brown has been terrific and said after his Game 2 effort, "Ultimately, we just want to win games, so that’s the only thing that we are concerned with. We are confident as ever. Teams have been writing us off all year and we just keep proving people wrong, so that’s what we’re going to do." Power forwards Al Horford and Marcus Morris are also off to strong starts with Morris coming off the bench to do so. The pick: Forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo (32.5-11.0-7.5) and Khris Middleton (28.0 & 6.0) have been superb in the series but haven't received much help from the supporting cast. "We got to play better," Antetokounmpo said. "We got to play with more effort. I think as a team we didn't show up (Tuesday). Hopefully we can go back home and protect our home and play better and get those two wins." A huge problem has been turnovers, with the Bucks committing 35 in the first two games. The Celtics have made them pay for those miscues, as 20 percent of Boston's scoring in the series has come off a Milwaukee turnover. The pick: Milwaukee's playoff history is surely 'ugly' (see above for a reminder) but this is ostensibly a "must win" game, as the Bucks would surely not be able to overcome n 0-3 deficit. The way the first two games have gone, I only see Milwaukee competing in a high-scoring affair. That's the bet. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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04-20-18 | Raptors +2 v. Wizards | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raptors beat the Wizards in Game 1 by eight points, as the dynamic backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry totaled a modest 28 points. PF Ibaka (23 & 12) was the star, while Wight (18) and Miles (12) played big roles off the bench. However, in Game 2's 130-119 win, DeRzoan (team's leading scorer at 23.0 PPG) exploded for 37 points on 14-of-23 shooting.Center Valanciunas accounted for a double-double (19 & 14), while Miles (18) and Wright (11) again played well off the bench. The Raptors will try to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven first-round Eastern Conference series when they visit the Washington Wizards on Friday. The Wizards fell behind early in Game 1 and were down 44-27 at the end of the first quarter in Game 2. "We need a better start," Washington head coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "All five guys need to lock in defensively. They've gotten free for a lot of jump shots, and give them credit, they made them. ... But we've got to be a little better. We've got to have a better start. It's not the only thing, but we've got to start there and then go from there." Toronto: DeRozan was the star in Game 2 plus Valanciunas outplayed his counterparts on Washington up front but PG Lowry also added a double-double with 13 points and 12 assists. Toronto was the East's highest scoring team during the regular season (111.7 PPG) and appears comfortable being the hunted after winning the East with a franchise-high 59 wins (only the Rockets won more games this season). Washington: PG John Wall averaged 26.0 & 12.0 APG in the first two games but fellow guard Bradley Beal (also an All Star) is off to a slow start offensively in the series. He was held to nine points on 3-of-11 shooting in Game 2 and returns home averaging 14.0 PPG while shooting 11 of 28 (39.3%) in two games. A bright spot for the Wizards was reserve Mike Scott, who had 20 points off the bench and was on the floor when Washington rallied in Game 2. Head coach Scott Brooks may opt to go with the 6-foot-8 Scott in place of 6-11 Marcin Gortat, who has struggled at both ends thus far. With the Wizards down 0-2, he has little to lose. The pick: Clearly, the Wizards face a "must win" in this contest but one wonders if Washington can match Toronto's overall firepower or the team's depth (see the contributions of Miles and Wright, above). However, as noted above, the Raptors seem comfortable playing the role of the "Big Dog!" Back in 2015, the No. 5 Wizards -- led by veteran Paul Pierce -- pulled off a what was a mild upset of the No. 4 Raptors, closing out the series with a 31-point rout. Not yet ready to predict a Toronto sweep but I will make the Raptors a 10* play here in Game 3. |
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04-20-18 | Twins v. Rays -120 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins have not had a typical April. Minnesota saw four games postponed due to poor weather between April 8-15 and followed that up with a two-game series as the home team in San Juan, Puerto Rico vs. the Indians. Through it all, the Twins open a three-game series in Florida against the Tampa Bays Rays having won four of their last five games and with an overall record of 8-5. The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (0-1, 5.00 ERA) will get the ball for Minnesota and Chris Archer (1-1, 7.84 ERA) goes for the Rays. Lynn was scheduled to make his third start of 2018 last Saturday, but weather postponements forced a reshuffling of the rotation and he finally gets a chance to get back on the mound in tonight's contest. The former Cardinal was pounded in his Twins debut (4 IP / 3 hits / 6 walks / 5 ERs) before limiting Houston to three hits and four walks over five scoreless innings with nine strikeouts on April 9. Lynn is 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA in three appearances (two starts) versus the Rays. Archer is considered Tampa Bay's ace but he has yet to post a quality start or complete more than six innings in his first four trips to the mound. What's more, he is coming off his worst performance. The two-time All Star recently gave up six runs in the second inning this past Saturday and ended up allowing seven over four innings with just two strikeouts in a 9-4 home loss to Philadelphia. The pick: The good news here for Minnesota is that this game (and the weekend series) is indoors and safely away from snow and any other potential obstacles. The bad news is that Archer has been dominant against Minnesota in his career with a 6-1 record and 1.84 ERA. Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash wants another series, after the Rays earned one over teh Rangers to open the week. "We have to own the fact that we're whatever our record is right now," Cash said after Wednesday's win. "We also can be somewhat satisfied that we are playing hard. It just hasn't gone our way." It"goes the Rays' way" tonight! Make Tampa Bay a 10* play. |
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04-20-18 | Cavs +1 v. Pacers | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers scored just 80 points in a Game 1 loss to the Pacers and needed LeBron James to come out aggressive in Game 2. LBJ did just that, scoring the team's first 16 points on his way to a 46-point effort. However, the Cavs barely hung on in a 100-97 Game 2 win. The series is now tied at one apiece (although the Pacers are 2-0 ATS), as the venue switches to Indiana. The Pacers dominated the first quarter en route to a Game 1 victory and remain confident heading home despite the tight loss in Game 2. "We really wanted to go home 2-0 but we got one on the road," Indiana center Myles Turner told reporters. "We did our jobs. I can't wait to be back in front of the Indy fans. I hope these guys are ready, I know they are." Cleveland: The Cavs were embarrassed in Game 1 and head coach Tyronn Lue decided to make a lineup change for Game 2. He inserted veterans Kyle Korver and JR Smith into the starting lineup in place of Jeff Green and Rodney Hood. Korver went 4-of-8 from three-point range to help space the floor. Smith did little offensively (just five points) but after shooting 38.5% as team (including 8 of 34 on threes), the Cavs connected on 50.7% of their shots, making 11 of 28 three pointers. Lue said he plans to stick with his Game 2 lineup in Game 3 and praising the job Smith did on Victor Oladipo, the Pacers leading scorer, and the fact Korver took two charges from Oladipo. Indiana: Victor Oladipo scored a game-high 32 points in Game 1 but was limited to 22 in Game 2, although he did make 9-of-18 shots.Oladipo is averaging 27.0-4.5-5.0 in the first two games with Turner adding 17.0 & 6.5. The Pacers have shown excellent depth with eight players getting 17-minutes plus, although all five starters are averaging 32-plus minutes. The Pacers shot 52.6 percent from the floor in Game 2 but struggled to a 6-of-22 (27.3%) effort from three-point range, while committing 17 turnovers. The pick; I realize the Cavs have been an awful defensive team for most of the season but that hasn't been the team's problem in this series. After all, the Pacers have scored 98 and 97 points in the first two games. The Cavs finished fifth during the regular season in both scoring (110.9 PPG) and FG percentage (47.6%) and in this pivotal Game 3, I expect the Cavs to bring their "A game." After all, LBJ has never played on a team that has lost a first round series. Why start now, when he's coming off arguably, his best regular season ever? Make the Cavs an 8* play. |
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04-19-18 | Blazers +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 102-119 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The New Orleans Pelicans are in the playoffs for just the second time in Anthony Davis' six-year career. His first visit came back in 2015 when the Warriors swept them in an opening round series, despite Davis averaging 31.5 & 11.0. Davis' second time around in the postseason has so far, gone much better. The Pelicans have won the first two games of the first round series with the Trail Blazers in Portland. Davis has averaged 28.5 & 13.5 in the first two games while combo guard Jrue Holiday and veteran PG Rajan Rondo have risen to the challenge, as well. Portland entered the series having won 21 of their last 24 home games but now find themselves in an 0-2 'hole.' Star PG Damian Lillard (26.9 PPG in the regular season) has been unable to get untracked in the first two games, averaging 17.5 PPG while shooting just 31.7 percent. Head coach Terry Stotts said his Portland squad has to return serve by accumulating road wins. "We've got to win two games in New Orleans, and hopefully it's the next two," Stotts told reporters. "It's easy math - we've got to go and win two in New Orleans, and I feel we're very capable of winning both games." Portland: "Coming into the playoffs, you know teams are going to lock in, and they're going to try and make the game hard for you," Lillard told reporters afterr the Game 2 loss. "And I give a lot of credit to them for executing their game plan but the opportunities I do get, I've just got to be better. It's as simple as that." McCollum (20.5) has been the team's leading scorer but starting center Jusuf Nurkic (in the regular season) was limited to 15 minutes on Tuesday due to suffering a leg bruise in the third quarter. Nurkic needs to be healthy, as he's the only consistent scorer outside of Lillard and McCollum. New Orleans: Jrue Holiday scored a career playoff-best 33 points in Tuesday's 111-102 victory and is averaging 27.0-5.0-5.5 in the team's two wins. As for PG Rondo, he is reminding all why he's earned the tag "Playoff Rondo." He has once again elevated his play, averaging 11.0-9.0-13.0. Head coach Alvin Gentry appreciates the calmness he provides to younger less-experienced players. Also, let's not forget the contributions of 6-10 forward Mirotic, who has averaged 16.5 & 9.5 to give A.D. some 'cover' up front. The pick: The Blazers are known for being a strong home team but Portland did go 21-20 SU on the road during the regular season. If there is ever a "must win" for a team in a series other than when one is facing elimination with a loss, it's Game 3 of a series in which a team is down 0-2. I'm a big fan of Lillard and I believe he keeps his team 'alive' in this series by leading them to a Game 3 win. Make Portland a 10* play. |
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04-19-18 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Capitals didn't win the Presidents' Trophy this season (entered the season off back-to-back wins) but the team's 105 points were enough for them to capture their third consecutive Metropolitan Division title. Few teams can match the regular-season success of the Washington Capitals in recent years but Alex Ovechkin and company are more concerned with erasing a lengthy history of playoff flops. The Capitals have not been to the Stanley Cup Final since 1998 and have been drummed out of the playoffs in the second round in each of the past three seasons. The Capitals seemed to insist that they had less pressure this postseason than in years past, perhaps as a result of failing to win the Presidents' Trophy for the first time in three years. However, despite winning 12 of 15 games heading into the playoffs, the Capitals once again flopped out of teh box, losing two home playoff games at home in OT to the Columbus Blue Jackets (FYI... Columbus has never won a postseason series). Alex Ovechkin generated both headlines and raised eyebrows after declaring that the Washington Capitals would return to the District of Columbia tied with the Columbus Blue Jackets at two victories apiece in their Eastern Conference first-round series. Yes, it took two OTs but the Caps won Game 3 by the score of 3-2 and are now halfway to fulfilling Ovechkin's promise. Washington: Ovechkin recorded his second straight two-point performance when he notched a pair of assists in his 100th career playoff game before Lars Eller ended Tuesday's marathon after the puck caromed off him and into the net for a 3-2 win. "It was a real ugly OT-winner goal. I had a feeling it was going be one of those. It doesn't make the win less sweet," Eller told the Washington Post. Braden Holtby made his first start of the series and earned his keep on Tuesday with 33 saves, prompting coach Barry Trotz to declare the 2016 Vezina Trophy winner the starter for Game 4 the following day. Columbus: Cam Atkinson joined defenseman Seth Jones with an assist on Tuesday to extend their respective point streaks, with the former riding a 12-game stretch (10 goals, seven assists). Jones logged a team-high 35:04 and Panarin had over 31 1/2 minutes, prompting Columbus coach John Tortorella to give his team the day off from practice on Wednesday with both teams working a staggering 47:24 of overtime in the series. Two-time Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky entered the series with a ghastly 3-10 postseason record but he has been very impressive so far. He facied 58 shots in the Game 2 win, while setting a franchise record with 54 saves. He's stopped 123 of 133 shots (.925 SP) through three games. The pick: Both teams have worked a staggering 47:24 of overtime in the series, as this series has become the 22nd in NHL history that has featured at least three consecutive overtime games. "During playoffs, to me, it's not a physical fatigue; it's a mental fatigue - and that's what breaks you down physically," Columbus head Tortorella said on Wednesday. "But if we're fatigued three games in, (expletive), we're just starting. It's a long game last night, and we've had a couple overtime games, but that's all part of this." Bobrovsky has been excellent for Columbus in goal and Trotz has finally decided that Holtby is "the man." I'm niot sure why it took himn falling behind 0-2 to realize that. After all, Holtby answered a 1-5-2 mark with a gaudy 4.82 goals-against average and .854 save percentage from Feb. 11-March 5 with a solid 5-1-0 record in his final six regular-season starts. However, Trotz went with the far less experienced Brubauer, who allowed eight goals on 49 shots (.837 SP). Make the Over an 8* play. |
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04-19-18 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs +104 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Bruins blew a chance at capturing the East's No. 1 see when they lost a home contest to the Panthers in the team's final game of the regular season. However, The Bruins regrouped quickly and won the first two games of their series with the Maple Leafs, 5-1 and 7-3. The series shifted to Toronto for Game 3 and after almost being left for dead after losing the first two games in Boston, the Maple Leafs were able to reverse the momentum with a 4-2 home win on Monday night. Toronto now has a chance to level the best-of-seven series when it hosts the Boston Bruins in Game 4 on Thursday night. Boston: The Bruins did not exactly play poorly on Monday, as they were able to get 42 shots on goal but Toronto goaltender Frederik Andersen made 40 saves, his highest total since Feb. 20. Boston's top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak was "all that" in the opening two games, combining for a collective 20 points but the unit was blanked in Game 3. What's more, Boston goalie Tukka Rask allowed four goals on 30 shots in Game 3 (.867 SP), after allowing just four goals in 60 shots (.933) in winning Games 1 and 2. Toronto: Knowing that only four teams in history have come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series, Toronto head coach Mike Babcock was keenly aware of the importance of winning Game 3 and understands his team needs a similar performance Thursday. “If we didn’t have success, I thought we were probably going to be done,” Babcock said. “(Now), you win one, you’re in a best-of-three. We’re set up real good that way. ... You still want to be in a better situation and be in the driver’s seat. So it’s important for us to even it up.” While Boston's top line dominated the first two games, Toronto's No. 1 unit was floundering by being held off the scoresheet but star forward Auston Matthews provided the biggest moment for the Maple Leafs by netting the tie-breaking goal in Game 3. The pick: The Toronto Maple Leafs were a better team than shown by the results of the first two games of their series with the Boston Bruins and they proved just that in Monday 4-2 victory at the Air Canada Centre in Game 3. Game 4 isn't a "must win" contest for Toronto but it's pretty close. A loss would mean a return trip to Boston, where the Bruins won Games 1 and 2 by a combined 12-4 score. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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04-19-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 217 | Top | 128-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia 76ers' 17-game winning streak came to a crashing halt in Game 2 against the Heat, as Miami answered a 27-point loss in Game 1 with a 113-103 win in Game 2. Veteran Dwyane Wade went "Back to the Future" in Miami's win, scoring 28 points on 11-of-16 shooting .Five other Miami players scored in double digits in the win while Philly, which shot percent in Game 1 (47.4%, including making 18 of 28 threes), shot just 41.7 percent overall (including 7 of 36 on threes). Miami: Leading the way behind Wade in Game 2 was PG Dragic, who scored 20 points. Also, James Johnson, who averaged under nine minutes a game in his first 19 playoff contests with Chicago, Memphis and Toronto, has made the most of his increased role with the Heat this postseason. He made all seven of his shots in Game 2 and finished with 18 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three steals in 37 minutes, which matches his highest total in a regulation game all season. |
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04-19-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 7 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up:The 2016 Cubs won 103 games and the team's first World Series since 1908. Chicago struggled early on in 2017 but closed with a surge, while the Brewers faded. The Cubs won the Central Division with 92 victories and took down the Washington Nats in an NLDS before losing to the Dodgers in the NLCS. This year's team finds itself fourth among five NL Central teams in the early going with a 7-8 record. The Cubs have struggled at the plate and it sure hasn't helped that yesterday's postponement was the third postponement in four days due to inclement weather. It's been feast or famine for Chicago so far in 2018, as the Cubs have recorded only one victory when scoring fewer than five runs and are averaging 1.75 RPG in their eight losses compared to 8.7 in their seven wins. The Cubs will look get their offense going against the St. Louis Cardinals as the two longtime rivals wrap up an abbreviated two-game series. The Cards remained in the wild-card chase until game No. 159 last season but stayed at home for the postseason. St. Louis has made winning seem like a birthright since the last round of expansion, as the Cards have made the playoffs in 12 of the last 20 years and have missed the postseason in back-to-back years just twice, 2007-08 and 2016-17. The team has opened 10-7 and with a five-game winning streak is trying to make a statement that it has no interest in seeing 2018 become a 'hat trick' The pitching matchup: Weather permitting, the Cards will send promising right-hander Luke Weaver (2-0, 2.08 ERA) up against the Cubs' Jon Lester (1-0, 4.40 ERA). Weaver was pushed into the Wednesday starting assignment in place of Michael Wacha, who has struggled at Wrigley Field. Wacha will instead make his next start on Friday against Cincinnati on eight days rest. Weaver is showing why he was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, as he has followed an outstanding spring with three strong starts to begin the regular season. He has allowed four runs over 17 1/3 innings and has struck out seven in each of his last two turns. The veteran Lester is off to a up-and-down start with one excellent outing sandwiched between two sub-par efforts. He allowed four runs on seven hits over five innings in a no-decision against Pittsburgh last time out, generating only 14 swinging strikes. The pick: Runs can be tough to come by at Wrigley Field this time of year with inclement weather and the pitching matchup should also make scoring runs difficult, as well. Weaver owns a 2.08 ERA, an 0.98 WHIP, has a 17-5 KW ratio and opponents are batting just .197 against him in 2018. As for Lester, he has had a bumpy start but note that he owns a 2.30 ERA in 14 career starts against St. Louis. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-18-18 | Astros -157 v. Mariners | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Brian McCann hit a tie-breaking two-run homer in Tuesday's 4-1 victory, as the Astros defeated the Mariners for the seventh time in eight meetings. Dallas Keuchel pitched eight innings in a 2-1 loss to the Mariners on Monday but Lance McCullers Jr. was able to earn a 4-1 win last night by allowing one run on one hit in seven innings with 11 strikeouts. The victory snapped the Astros' three-game losing streak to give them an 11-7 start in 2018 (Angels lead the AL West at 13-4). Seattle's Robinson Cano drilled his first homer of the season and the 302nd of his career, passing Rogers Hornsby for second place on the all-time list for second basemen, as the Mariners fell to 9-6. Seattle batters struck out 14 times on Tuesday and the club has now scored just four runs in its last three contests. The pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.29 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Mike Leake (2-0, 3.50 ERA for Seattle. The defending champs acquired Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh in mid-January and he as been sensational in his first three outings. Cole recorded 11 strikeouts in each of his first two starts and then increased the total to a career-best 14 over seven innings against Texas on Friday. However, he has only one win to show for his outstanding efforts, although the Astros have won all three of his starts. Leake did not factor in the decision against Oakland in his last start, after giving up three runs and seven hits over six innings. He's pitched well so far, limited opposing batters to a .221 average in three starts. Leake is 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts) against the Astros. The pick: Cole has been everything and more for Houston so far. The Astros were counting on him bouncing back from a poor 2017 season with the Pirates in which he posted a career-worst 4.26 ERA and served up a whopping 31 HRs, well above his previous career high of 11. He owns not only a 1.29 ERA in his first three starts but also an 0.67 WHIP while holding opponents to a .141 BAA. He stood out in his lone career outing against Seattle by allowing one run and three hits back on July 27, 2016 in his only complete game in 130 major-league starts. Cole has joined Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan as the only pitchers in the past 110 years to start a season with 11-plus strikeouts in their first three starts of the season. That's some pretty good company. Make Houston an 8* play. |
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04-18-18 | Predators -165 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators were the No. 8 seed in the West last year but made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals, before falling in six games to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Predators were the NHL's best team in the the 2017-18 regular season, going 53-18-11 for a league-high 117 points. However, the Predators have looked less than dominating against the 8th-seeded Avalanche, surrendering the first goal in each of their first three playoff contests. Yes, the Predators overcame early deficits in the first two to take a 2-0 lead but they were unable to do the same in the third and are now in jeopardy of seeing their Western Conference first-round series knotted at two wins apiece should Game 4 at the Pepsi Center follow a similar path. Potential Hart Trophy finalist Nathan MacKinnon scored twice to help Colorado snap a 12-game winless skid to Nashville in a 5-3 Colorado win, continuing his torrid play in Denver. He has recorded 69 of his 102 points at Pepsi Center in the 2017-18 regular season and playoffs. Nashville: "We got what we deserved. We didn't really show up the first period," said Nashville captain Roman Josi, who joined fellow defenseman Ryan Ellis and forwards Kevin Fiala and Viktor Arvidsson in being saddled with a minus-3 rating in Monday's 5-3 setback. The Predators permitted three first-period goals and have been outscored 5-0 over the course of the opening 20 minutes of each game in the series. P.K. Subban caused a stir by unleashing an open-ice shot to the back of the head of MacKinnon during Game 3, but the defenseman didn't pull any punches when asked about it. "Yeah, I'd do it again next game," the 28-year-old Subban told the Tennessean. Austin Watson has scored in four straight games dating back to the regular-season finale to join fellow forwards Ryan Johansen and Colton Sissons with a club-best four points in the series, with the latter two each having two goals and two assists. Colorado: The Avalanche went from the NHL's worst team a year ago (by a wide margin) to a team that went 43-30-9 this season, while earning the West's final wild card spot with 95 points (one more than the Blues' 94!). However, the Avs drew the Predators in the first round. That said, the Avs have not backed down. MacKinnon has been Colorado's best player but captain Gabriel Landeskog recorded a personal postseason best with three points (one goal, two assists) in Game 3 while linemate Mikko Rantanen notched his first multi-point playoff outing with a pair of assists. The pick: Colorado's fast start in Game 3 (four goals in the first 24:25 of the game) ended goaltender Pekka Rinne's night but he wasn't the problem, head coach Peter Laviolette said. "We weren't very good in front of him," he said after the loss. "I didn't think we were giving him the support he needed. It wasn't a sharp game for us. We left (him) in after the first to see if we would be better." Rinne will back in net tonight, as he was a big reason Nashville advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals last year and is off a terrific regular season (42-13-4, 2.31 GAA & .927 SP). Colorado's win on Monday made it a closer series but the Predators are easily the better team and a bounce-back effort from the Preds would make it very tough for the Avalanche to come back against the Presidents' Trophy winners. That's my bet, as remember, Colorado's win in Game 3 broke a 12-game winning streak the Preds owned against the Avs. Nashville is an 8* play. |
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04-18-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -138 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks' 52-29 record at Chase Field helped them earn the NL's top wild card spot in 2017 and in the early going of 2018, the Diamondbacks have gone 6-1 at home which has Arizona atop the NL West at 12-4. Lefty Patrick Corbin kept San Francisco hitless until Brandon Belt recorded an infield single with two outs in the eighth inning and registered his first career shutout in Arizona's 1-0 win over San Franciscio in the opener of a three-game series last night. David Peralta delivered an RBI single to extend his hitting streak to six games, a stretch during which he has gone 9-for-24 (Peralta has hit safely in 11 of 13 overall this season). San Francisco (6-10) has now lost four in a row after opening its 10-game road trip with a 7-0 victory in San Diego, scoring fewer than two runs in three of the setbacks. The pitching matchup: Chris Stratton (1-1, 2.60 ERA) gets the ball for San Francisco and Arizona counters with lefty Robbie Ray (2-0, 5.74 ERA). Johnny Cueto returned to the mound after missing two starts while on the disabled list, and struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings in Tuesday's loss to Arizona. However, he is the only one of the Giants' top three starters to have pitched this season. No. 1 starter Madison Bumgarner is expected to miss another month with a fractured hand and No. 3 starter has yet to take the mound, although he is on track to make his first start of the season this weekend. Stratton earned a spot in the rotation with a solid spring and has pitched well with Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija sidelined with injuries. He's allowed three runs or less in each of his first three starts and is coming off an outstanding performance at San Diego on Thursday, when he yielded just one hit over seven scoreless innings en route to his first win of the season. He has made three career starts against Arizona, going 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA. Ray has yet to lose this year despite a pair of subpar efforts, including a no-decision at San Francisco last Wednesday in which he gave up three runs on five hits and three walks over 4 2/3 innings. He was tagged by Colorado for seven runs (six earned) on seven hits (three HRs) and three walks over five innings in his season debut back on March 30 at home. However, Ray has been excellent against San Francisco in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in nine starts The pick: San Francisco's Stratton is coming off his best career outing, a 7-0 victory at San Diego in which he gave up only a single in seven innings) but he's pitching for a team which was a MLB-worst 26-55 on the road in 2017, losing $2762 against the moneyline (also a MLB-worst). San Francisco is 3-6 on the road to open 2018, while averaging a woeful 1.67 RPG. Arizona's Robbie Ray will be hard-pressed to match Corbin's Tuesday effort (see above) he's off an excellent 2017 season in which he went 15-5 (D-backs were 20-8 and plus-$1166 in all of his starts, the third-best moneyline mark among all 2017 starers). He also dominated San Francisco in 2017, going 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA in four starts( team was 4-0) while striking out 29 in 24 1/3 innings. Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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04-18-18 | Wolves +10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 82-102 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: More than a few teams made significant off-season moves last summer in the hope of competing with the Warriors but clearly, Houston turned out to be the one team which accomplished it. "We've enjoyed the year. It's been a great year," Houston head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "Now it's time for the second phase of it. I think everybody's anxious to get started." The Rockets finished an NBA-best 65-17 in the regular season but while they won Game 1 of the opening round series with the Minnesota T-wolves 104-101, it was no "walk in the park." James Harden, the odds-on favorite to win his first MVP award (30.4-5.4-8.8 assists) "came to the rescue," scoring 44 points on 15-of-26 shooting, including seven straight points during a decisive run in the fourth quarter (he also added eight assists). Minnesota: The good news was that Minnesota was able to harass Houston into 10-for-37 shooting from behind the arc but they were not able to contain Harden. Jimmy Butler drew the primary assignment on Harden and said, "I've got to do my job more effectively. What do you want: a free throw, a three-pointer, a layup? He got whatever he wanted in that game and I've got to be better at taking it away." Minnesota must also better utilize the talents of Karl-Anthony Towns on offense. Towns was second on the team in scoring during the regular season, averaging 21.3 points while attempting 14.3 shots per game. In the series opener, he scored only eight points on nine shots and was unable to take advantage of the situation when he occasionally worked against smaller defenders in the Rockets' switch-oriented defense. Houston: Harden did some offensive help in Game 1 from center Clint Capela, who collected 24 points on 10-of-15 shooting and 12 rebounds. However, Paul made just 5 of 14 shots (1 of 6 on threes) and added a modest four assists. Once again, the Rockets were able to shake off their poor shooting and were able to thrive in the paint. Houston outpaced the bigger Timberwolves 54-44 on paint points with Harden feasting both on driving layups and pinpoint passes to center Clint Capela. The pick: Houston took all four meetings in the regular season against Minnesota with the Rockets also going 4-0 ATS. However, I took the T-wolves in Game 1 and easily covered. That ATS win came despite poor games by both Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler, the team's top-two players.I'm going right back to the well again here in Game 2. Make Minnesota a 10* pick. |
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04-18-18 | Lightning -144 v. Devils | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Lightning held on to the East's No. 1 seed when Boston lost its final game of the regular season at home to the Florida Panthers back on April 8. The Lightning drew the East's No. 8 seed in the New Jersey Devils, who finished 16 points behind them. Tampa Bay held serve on home ice by taking Games 1 and 2 (5-2 & 5-3) but the Devils proved in Game 3 of their first-round playoff series with the heavily favored Tampa Bay Lightning that they are not a team simply content with reaching the postseason. New Jersey climbed back into this first-round series with a 5-2 comeback win and can square the series when they host the Lightning in Game 4 on Wednesday. Taylor Hall registered a goal and two assists, as the Devils rallied from one-goal deficits twice and scored four times in the third period for a 5-2 victory on Monday. Tampa Bay: The Lightning led 1-0 in the second period and then 2-1 after captain Steven Stamkos’ goal 38 seconds into the third. However, the Lightning gave the Devils seven power plays, four in the third period alone, and New Jersey tied it on a 5-on-3 advantage to spark the four-goal uprising. Nikita Kucherov had a pair of assists to increase his team-leading total to six points in the series for Tampa Bay. Left wing Alex Killorn became the second Tampa Bay player to score in each of the first three games of a playoff series with a goal on Monday to join Vincent Lecavalier, who did it in four straight against New Jersey in 2007. The Lightning have scored five of their 12 goals in the series with the power play on nine chances and their much-maligned penalty kill is 10-for-12, giving up one of those while down two men. Right wing Ryan Callahan (upper-body), a key on the penalty-killing unit, sat out Game 3 but participated in the morning skate Monday and could return to the lineup soon. New Jersey: Cory Schneider replaced Keith Kinkaid in net for Game 3 and was outstanding when he needed to be, especially in the third period when he gloved a Tyler Johnson point-blank chance while laying on the ice. “(Schneider) was just unreal,” Taylor Hall told reporters. “I’m so happy for him after the last couple months, where he’s been and him sitting out. He’s such a great teammate, nothing’s changed about his personality, then he comes in a steals the game for us. It’s just awesome.” Schneider earned his first win since Dec. 27 with 34 saves Hall is coming off a Hart Trophy-worthy regular season, (39 goals and 93 points) and turned in a brilliant performance Monday. He as five points in the first three games of the series. Hall tied the game with his second goal of the series in the second period, then assisted on Butcher's game-tying tally and made a gorgeous rush up ice before setting up Stefan Noesen's eventual game-winner at 12:55 of the third period. The pick: “Any momentum they gained in that game was because of our penalties, and every penalty we took it seemed was 200 feet from our net,” Tampa Bay head coach Jon Cooper told reporters. “It was too bad because I thought for two periods, and then after getting the go-ahead goal, we had control of that game. … We did it to ourselves.” He's right. The Devils can be had but the Lightning didn't get the job done. However, Tampa Bay should not be lacking in confidence, even after its Game 3 loss. After all the Lightning are still up a game and in the driver's seat in the series. A win here and they would return to Florida with a chance to close out New Jersey.I expect just that to happen, as the Lightning did not trail for a single second over the first 172 minutes, 55 seconds of the series. Make Tampa Bay an 8* play. |
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04-18-18 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 209 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have had two full days off to ponder what happened in Game 1 of their series with the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers held the Cavs to just 80 points (on 38.5% shooting, including 8-of-34 from three-point range) in winning the first of this seven-games series by 18 points. It was LBJ's first-ever loss in an Opening Round Game 1 (his teams had been 12-0!) and the defeat ended a remarkable run of 21 consecutive first round wins by James-led teams. Cleveland was down 25-8 in the first quarter on Sunday before James attempted his first field goal, Love scored a total of just nine points and Jeff Green was shut out in 27 minutes. All-Star guard Victor Oladipo scored a game-high 32 points on 11-of-19 shoting on Sunday and keyed the defensive effort with four steals. The Pacers dominated on both ends of the floor in the 98-80 Game 1 victory and will take the court tonight looking to prevent the Cavs from evening this Eastern Conference series at one win apiece. Indiana: Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis were the key players the Pacers received from the Thunder in the Paul George deal. Oladipo has been terrific (21.3-5.2-4.3) and in about 24 1/2 minutes per game, Sabonis has averaged 11.6 & 7.7 on the season. Indiana was swept in the first round of the playoffs by the Cavaliers last spring (with George!) but the Pacers are a different (better?) team this time around thanks to the presence of Oladipo and Sabonis, plus four other Pacers who average in double digits with Stephenson (9.2 & 5.2) and Joseph (7.9) also being regular contributors. In fact, the Pacers got a big boost from reserve swingman Lance Stephenson, who embraced the challenge of guarding James and added 12 points in 17 minutes off the bench. The Pacers forced the Cavs into 17 turnovers and starting center Myles Turner scored 16 points and grabbed eight rebounds. Cleveland: James recorded his 20th career postseason triple-double on Sunday (24-10-12), second all-time behind Magic Johnson (30). However, he was clearly passive for the first 11 minutes. James is coming off arguably his finest of 15 pro seasons as he averaged career highs in rebounds (8.6) and assists (9.1) while adding 27.5 points on 54.2 percent shooting. Kevin Love did grab 17 rebounds but finished with just those nine points on 3-of-8 shooting. Not including LBJ, Cleveland's other four starters shot just 10 of 30 from the floor to contribute a modest 25 points. The pick: Head coach Tyronn Lue needs the "real LeBron" to show up in Game 1. "When he sets the tone early for us, we're usually a really good team," Lue said. "So coming out, set the tone early, be able to call plays that feature him early to be aggressive. He's always going to make the right play and the right pass, get others involved, but in Game 2 we're going to need him to set the tone early, being aggressive and attacking the basket." Why would anyone expect anything different? The problem is, the Cavs are a poor defensive team, allowing 109.9 PPG (26th) on 47.4% shooting (28th). Make the Over an 8* play. |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 214 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pelicans blew almost all of their 19-point lead in Game 1 of their series with the Trail Blazers but managed to hold on for a 97-95 win. Anthony Davis felt the pressure dissipating in the final seconds of the opener. He had never been part of a playoff win until the Pelicans' victory on Saturday but after scoring 35 points, grabbing 14 rebounds and blocking four blocked shots, he now looks help the Pelicans take a 2-0 lead when they play again tonight in Portland. "It means a lot to get that monkey off your back and get your first win," Davis told reporters. "Now that's over with, and we want to come in Tuesday and get another one. That's our mindset." Portland has to be a little stunned, as the Blazers entered Saturday's contest having won 21 of their last 24 regular-season home games. "I think it puts some pressure on us," Portland's star guard Damian Lillard told reporters. "You come in with home court, the first two games are on your floor, and you lose. And now they're saying in their locker room, 'We got one, why not get another?'" New Orleans: Davis was the key player in Game 1 (duh!) but veteran PG Rajon Rondo reminded all why he's earned the tag "Playoff Rondo." He once again elevated his play and matched the franchise record for assists in a playoff game (17 by Chris Paul in 2008) plus helped force Lillard into 6-of-23 shooting. Rondo has averages of 14.3 points, 9.2 assists and 1.9 steals in 97 career playoff games and head coach Alvin Gentry appreciates the calmness he provides to younger less-experienced players. Let's not forget contributions of combo guard Holiday (19.0-4.5-6.0 during the regular season), as he chipped in 21 points. Then there was 6-10 forward Mirotic (14.6 & 8.2 in 30 games since coming from Chicago in a trade), who produced a double-double (16 & 11), the first of his postseason career.
Portland: The Blazers have relied all season on their dynamic duo of a backcourt, as Lillard (26.9-4.5-6.6) and McCollum (21.4-4.0-3.4) combined to average just over 48 points per game during the regular season. Center Jusuf Nurkic (14.3 & 9.0) was the only other Blazer to average in double digits during the year. Portland shot just 37.8 percent from the floor in Game 1, as well as struggling to just 36 points in the first half. Lillard and McCollum combined to shoot 31.7% (13-of-41) for the game and that just won't do. Nurkic had a double-double with 11 points and 11 rebounds but he was just 3-of-7 shooting in addition to having trouble defending Davis. Backup PF Ed Davis collected 13 rebounds in just 20 minutes in Game 1 but Portland can't expect more of that from him. The pick: Bottom line is this. Portland can't win if Lillard and backcourt mate CJ McCollum combine for three points on 1-of-15 shooting in the first half, again. However, why would anyone expect them to play so poorly again? In fact, the Blazers got un-tracked for 59 second-half points in Game 1, although it was too little, too late. .I sure expect Portland to bring its "A-game" but the Pelicans, including their Game 1 win, are an impressive 25-17 SU and 27-15 ATS on the road this season. A "typical" New Orleans road game has averaged 218.4 PPG and after a 97-95 contest in Game 1, the play here is a 10* on the Over. |
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04-17-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: It's been a record-setting inaugural season for the Vegas Golden Knights and the team is keeping things very interesting in its first-ever Stanley Cup playoff series. Vegas took the first two games of its series with the LA Kings 1-0 and then 2-1 in double-OT. The series shifted to LA on Sunday but once again the Golden Knights prevailed by a single goal, edging the Kings 3-2. The loss was particularly galling for LA, as the Kings allowed three third-period goals to the expansion Golden Knights in Sunday's 3-2 defeat. Only four teams in NHL history have rallied from an 0-3 deficit to win a best-of-seven series and one of them was the Los Angeles Kings, who came back from the dead against San Jose in 2014 en route to winning the Stanley Cup. The Kings find themselves in that situation once again, as they try to stave off elimination against the visiting Vegas Golden Knights tonight. Vegas: Game 3 was tied at 1-1 late in the third period, when Vegas scored twice in a 21-second span, getting the tie-breaking goal from James Neal and an insurance goal from William Karlsson, who led the team with 43 during the regular season. Neal has reached 20 goals in each of his 11 seasons and is a proven playoff performer with 14 goals in 42 postseason games over the previous three seasons with Nashville. On the defensive end of the ice, the Golden Knights' Marc-Andre Fleury has been brilliant, turning aside 96 of 99 shots in the series (.970 SP) to give him an 0.84 GAA in the team's three wins. LA Kings: The Kings allowed the fewest goals in the league during the regular season (203) but a lack of offense in the playoffs is proving to be the team's downfall. It's pretty difficult win when a team scores a total of three goals in the first three games of this series. A continuing problem is the Kings at now 1-for-13 in the series with the man advantage, after failing on all five power-play chances in Game 3. Captain Anze Kopitar scored a late goal and set up the opening score in Game 3 but he is the only Los Angeles player with more than one point in the series. Poor Jonathan Quick. In just about any other series the Kings' goalie would be getting praise for his 1.69 goals-against average through three games but not here up against Fleury (see above). The pick: Only four NHL teams have squandered 3-0 leads in a best-of-seven playoff series and find it hard to believe Vegas will join this group. However, that's not to say winning in four games will come easy for teh Golden Knights. If Los Angeles is to extend the series, it will needscontributions from the team's top players. The Kings have managed three goals in the series, one from center Anze Kopitar (career-high 35 regular-season goals) and none from wingers Dustin Brown (28 goals) and Tyler Toffoli (24). The Kings have won just one of eight playoff games since hoisting the Cup in 2014 and are 1-6 in those decided by one goal. My gut says LA wins here but my bet is a 10* play on the Over. |
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04-17-18 | Red Sox v. Angels -148 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -148 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox are off to the best start in club history with a 13-2 mark to open the 2018 season. The team's starting pitchers have posted a major league-best 2.06 ERA and Boston's team ERA of 2.94 ranks third-best. The Red Sox are averaging 5.93 RPG (2nd-best) plus the team's .275 BA and .795 OPS also rank 2nd-best in MLB. The Red Sox begin a three-game series Tuesday night in Anaheim against the Angels, a team with MLB's second-best best record (13-3), while leading all teams in scoring (6.44 RPG), team BA (.291) and OPS (.825). LA's 26 HRs are second-best overall and the team's pitching (3.19 ERA ranks 7th) is more than good enough, considering the way the team is hitting. The pitching matchup: David Price (1-1, 2.40 ERA) gets the ball for Boston and the Angels' two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani (2-0, 2.08 ERA) will be on the mound for LA. Price had trouble on (injuries) and off (arguments with reporters and people in and around the organization) the field in 2017, making only 16 appearances, including 11 starts. He finished 6-3 with a 3.38 ERA, while Boston went 6-5 in his 11 starts. Price looks healthier and seems happier in 2018 and will take the mound for his fourth start of 2018 in this one. However, Price did leave last Wednesday's 10-7 loss to the New York Yankees after allowing four runs in one inning, telling reporters that he lost feeling in his fingertips on a cold night in Boston. He is 5-7 with a 3.53 ERA in 15 starts in his career versus the Los Angeles Angels. Ohtani has served as the DH in seven games for Los Angeles, which is not using him on the day before and after he pitches. He has 33 at-bats as a designated hitter, batting .367 with three HRs and 11 RBI. He was supposed to take the ball Sunday but the game in Kansas City was postponed. Ohtani carried a perfect game into the seventh inning against Oakland in his last outing April 8, permitting one hit and striking out 12 in seven scoreless innings of the Angels' 6-1 victory. He also defeated the Athletics in his first major league start, allowing three runs (on a 3-run HR) and three hits in six frames. The pick: Boston's 13-2 record is MLB's best, as is the team's plus-$1043 moneyline mark. LA is right behind them at 13-3 and at plus-$1009 vs. the moneyline. However, the Angels have the best run differential in baseball at plus-48 with the Red Sox second at plus-42. What a series it should be. Ohtani attempts to become the first Los Angeles Angels pitcher to win his first three starts since Jared Weaver in 2006 and also gets the chance to display his skills on the mound against a team other than Oakland. My bet says he moves to 3-0. Make LA a 10* play. |
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04-17-18 | Reds v. Brewers -148 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds limped into Milwaukee last night mired in the team's fworst start (2-13) since the Great Depression (1931, to be exact). However, Cincinnati snapped an eight-game skid with Monday's 10-4 triumph over the Brewers. Adam Duvall collected three of Cincinnati's season-high 14 hits in helping his team 'improve' to 3-13. Duvall is 7-for-16 with three doubles and a HR in his last four contests, after stumbling out of the blocks with just four hits in his previous 12 games. The Reds haven't exactly been clicking on all cylinders, averaging only 3.38 RPG to rank 25th in all of MLB. Throw in a MLB-worst 5.72 ERA and it's easy to see why the Reds are just 3-13. "A win is salve regardless of how early or late you are in the season," Reds manager Bryan Price said. "A win makes everyone feel better. It's a long time coming, but it certainly feels good to win." The boo birds made their presence felt early and often as the Milwaukee Brewers' home woes continued with Monday's lopsided loss. The 8-9 Brewers look to turn the jeers into cheers on Tuesday, as they hope to win for just the third time in nine outings at Miller Park. Domingo Santana saw his six-game hitting streak come to an end for the Brewers last night, who have been outscored 48-20 at home in 2018. The Brewers aren't scoring much more than the Reds (3.53 RPG ranks 22nd), although the team's 4.08 ERA is more middle-of-the-pack (4.08). The pitching: Sal Romano (0-1, 5.87 ERA) gets the nod for Cincy and will be opposed by Milwaukee's Junior Guerra (1-0, 1.69 ERA). Romano has yet to win in three starts (team is 1-2) and he didn't do himself any favors by issuing four walks for the second time in three starts on Thursday, leading to his exit after allowing four runs on five hits in 4 1/3 innings against St. Louis. All three of Romano's career starts against Milwaukee came last year and he went 0-3 mark with a 7.24 ERA. Guerra saw the wheels come off in a hurry after serving as Milwaukee's Opening Day starter in 2017. He would make just 21 appearances in 2017 (14 starts), going 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.48 WHIP (Brewers went 4-10 in Guerra's starts, going minus-$439 vs. the moneyline). However, he insists he's healthier now and showed it with a strong outing following his recall from Triple-A Colorado Springs. Guerra allowed just one run on four hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 3-2 victory versus St. Louis on April 11, his first start of 2018. Guerra is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA in four career appearances against Cincinnati. The pick: The Reds surprised with a Monday win but remember, Cincy won just 29 games on the road in 2017 (only the Giants won fewer games) and even Monday's win makes them just 2-6 away from home here in 2018, allowing 6.00 RPG. Romano hardly looks capable of getting things straightened out considering his 'efforts' against Milwaukee last season (see above), so I'll back the Brewers who were MLB's biggest money-earner in 2017 at plus-$1801 (at $100/game). Make Milwaukee an 8* play. |
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04-17-18 | Capitals +124 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 124 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Capitals didn't win the Presidents' Trophy this season (entered the season off back-to-back wins) but the team's 105 points were enough for them to capture their third consecutive Metropolitan Division title. Few teams can match the regular-season success of the Washington Capitals in recent years but Alex Ovechkin and company are more concerned with erasing a lengthy history of playoff flops. The Capitals have not been to the Stanley Cup Final since 1998 and have been drummed out of the playoffs in the second round in each of the past three seasons. The Capitals seemed to insist that they had less pressure this postseason than in years past, perhaps as a result of failing to win the Presidents' Trophy for the first time in three years. However, after winning 12 of 15 games heading into the playoffs, the Capitals once again watching history repeat itself in the postseason. Columbus has never led, much less won, a postseason series but this past Sunday, the Blue Jackets became only the fifth team in history to erase multiple-goal deficits in the opening two games of a playoff series. Columbus has never won a postseason series but gets sets to host Washington on Tuesday, leading 2-0. Washington: The Caps are once again in the position of hoping to avoid another early playoff exit. "You're right now in a hard position," acknowledged Capitals superstar Alex Ovechkin. "But it's going to be fun when we bounce back and (we're) going to tie the series and come back here and play Game 5 at home." Washington learned Monday that forward Andre Burakovsky will miss at least the next two games after sustaining an upper-body injury and he will be replaced by Jakub Vrana, who was a healthy scratch Tuesday after collecting an assist in the series opener. Head coach Barry Trotz said he has made his decision on his starting goaltender in Game 3 but would not disclose if he is going back to Braden Holtby, after he replaced Philipp Grubauer in the third period of Sunday's loss. Columbus: Matt Calvert delivered the deciding goal in overtime on Sunday but Cam Atkinson netted two goals (he's on an 11-game points streak) to rally Columbus from a pair of two-goal deficits and continue a late-season binge that has seen him score 13 times over his last 13 games. More importantly, two-time Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky, who entered the series with a ghastly 3-10 postseason record, has been YUGE in the first two games. He has stopped 81 of 88 shots (.920 SP), including facing 58 shots in the Game 2 win, setting a franchise record with 54 saves, including 21 in the third period. The pick: Yes, the Blue Jackets are just the fifth team to overcome multi-goal deficits in back-to-back playoff games in NHL history but that's also a concern. They've fallen behind in both games largely because of too many penalties (13 combined in Games 1 and 2), with Washington converting five of those opportunities. Also, can Bobrovsky contune to 'stand tall' when facing so many shots on goal (88 in two games)? Teams that have lost the first two of a best-of-seven series at home have come back to win on only 19 of 89 occasions. Washington's playoff history gives one pause but so does Bobrovsky's postseason failures (before the first two games of this series). Plus, there is the fact that Columbus has never won a playoff series. Make Washington an 8* play. |
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04-16-18 | Spurs v. Warriors OVER 205 | Top | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors came into the postseason injured and slumping, having lost 10 of their final 17 games to end the regular season. With Curry still sidelined, head coach Steve Kerr inserted small forward Andre Iguodala into the starting lineup and the Warriors 'flipped the switch,' in a dominating 113-92 win in Game 1 of their series against the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs' starters weren't up to the challenge, as San Antonio scored only 17 points in the first quarter (Golden State had 28) and the Warriors never looked back. Only LaMarcus Aldridge (14 points) scored in double figures among the starting five. San Antonio: "I thought we were very prepared physically and mentally," Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich told reporters. "But I was mistaken. As I said, we looked like deer in the headlights. The defense was really poor as far as following game plan of the first quarter, and it's a bad combination to play defense like that and not shoot at the other end." San Antonio shot 40 percent from the floor in Game 1 and managed only three offensive rebounds in the 113-92 setback. In all, SA starters combined for just 33 points Popovich started Rudy Gay in the second half over Kyle Anderson to generate more offense and could insert Gay into the starting lineup for Game 2. Gay led San Antonio with 15 points in Game 1, with Parker adding 14 points off the bench to match Aldridge, although he went 1-of-8 from the floor. Golden State: Even though it's been a injury-filled season, the Warriors led the league in scoring, averaging 113.5 PPG. However, the Warriors focused on defense in Game 1, with the insertion super-sub Andre Iguodala into the starting lineup in an attempt to give the game a defensive tone right from the start. It worked! Starting Iguodala over Quinn Cook left Golden State without a true point guard, leading forward Kevin Durant running the offense. Durant finished with 24 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. The Warriors recorded 32 assists on 44 made field goals in the win, led by forward Draymond Green's 11 'dimes.' Green added 12 points and eight rebounds, as well, while Klay Thompson shot 'lights out' (11 of 13 from the floor, scoring 27 points).. The pick: The Warriors were a disappointing 29-12 SU at home during the regular season (only 16-24-1 ATS) but with Saturday's win, have now won 10 straight postseason games at home. Golden State shot 54.3% in Game 1 and that can't be a surprise. The Warriors not only led the NBA in scoring this season but they were also No. 1 in FG percentage (50.2), three-point percentage (39.1) and FT percentage (81.5). I'd be surprised if Golden State didn't score 113-plus points again, while the Popovich-led Spurs almost have to play (shoot) better in Game 2. Aldridge was held to 14 points on 5-of-12 shooting in Game 1 but Aldridge averaged 23.1 points and 18.0 shots from the floor during the regular season. San Antonio is shooting 45.7 percent on the season and I say "no way" the Spurs shoot 40 percent again here in Game 2. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-16-18 | Ducks v. Sharks -134 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Anaheim Ducks owned home ice advantage over the San Jose Sharks in their first round series but not only lost Game 1 at home 3-0 but followed with a 3-2 loss in Game 2. Anaheim now finds itself in an '0-2 hole,' having lost the first two games of playoff series at home for the third time in its last five postseason appearances. Anaheim closed the season with five consecutive wins to overtake San Jose by one point for second place in the division, but that's now moot. "We've been down (0-2) before. They have to win four. The series isn't over," Anaheim defenseman Brandon Montour said. However, the Sharks are 5-0-1 against the Ducks this season and have limited them to two regulation goals or fewer in eight consecutive meetings. That said, San Jose is not taking anything for granted. "We've all been around this league a long time and know that team over there has been in this position before and they have been able to claw their way back into a series," San Jose forward Logan Couture said. "We know how important the next game is." Anaheim: The Ducks entered the postseason with the fewest goals of any of the 16 teams (235) and is now tasked with having to duplicate last season's series against Edmonton, when they dropped the first two at home before rally to prevail in seven games. Rickard Rakell, the team's leading goal (34) and overall scorer (69 points), has been limited to two shots on goal through the first two games.Goaltender John Gibson has allowed six goals on 69 (.913 SP) and has now lost six consecutive starts to the Sharks. San Jose: Gibson's counter, Martin Jones, won only once in his final five starts of the regulation season but he has turned away 53 of 55 shots in the series (.964 SP) and has surrendered only seven goals in five matchups against the Ducks this season. Captain Joe Pavelski (his 66 points were 2nd-best during the regular season for the Sharks) has collected three assists in the first two game and said a key factor for San Jose was to not get rattled by the relentless physical play of Anaheim. Logan Couture led San Jose this season with 34 goals and had a goal and an assist in Game 2. The pick: Not sure I see Anaheim duplicating its comeback vs. Edmonton from last year, considering the Sharks are 5-0-1 against them this season. The series shifts to Silicon Valley, where the Sharks won 11 of their final 16 games en route to a 25-13-3 home record. San Jose goalie Jones is 'in a zone' and I say NO comeback this year for the Ducks. Make San Jose a 10* play. |
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04-16-18 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners open a four-game series against the visiting Houston Astros on Monday., coming off a 2-1 home loss on Sunday to the Oakland A's. That defeat ended a four-game winning streak in which the Mariners had plated 29 runs. The 8-5 Mariners find themselves 3 1/2 games behind the first-place Angels (13-3) in the AL West, with the Astros (last year's World Series champs) sittiing right in front of them at 10-6. Houston started 9-2 but Sunday's 3-1 home loss to the Rangers was the team's fourth loss in its last five. The 44-year-old Bartolo Colon retired 21 consecutive Astros before Carlos Correa drew a leadoff walk in the eighth inning and then Josh Reddick followed up witha double. The pitching matchup: Lefty Dallas Keuchel (0-2, 4.20 ERA) will seek his first win of the season for Houston, while Seattle will counter with another lefty, James Paxton (0-1, 5.74 ERA). This marks Keuchel's fourth start and the former Cy Young Award winner lasted only four innings in a 4-1 loss at Minnesota on Tuesday, surrendering three runs on six hits and four walks (second straight appearance in which he's allowed four walks). Keuchel has 15 career appearances against the Mariners, including 14 starts, going 8-5 with a 2.70 ERA. Paxton had a poor 2018 debut (4.2 IP / 6 hits / 4 walks / 6 ERs) but has bounced back with two solid outings. However, he remains winless on the season (team is 1-2). He has given up just two runs in each his last two starts, including a six-inning effort at Kansas City on Wednesday in which he matched his career high with 10 strikeouts but settled for a no-decision. Paxton owns a 3-3 record and 3.38 ERA in eight lifetime starts against Houston. The pick: Both of these two pitchers are overdue for an excellent start. Keuchel was the AL's Cy Young winner in 2015 (20-game winner) and last year, went 14-5 (2.90 ERA) in helping Houston win the World Series. As for Paxton, he took over the role of Seattle's ace last season, with King Felix making only 16 starts. Paxton entered the season primed for a big campaign after the oft-injured lefty put together his best season in 2017, finishing with career highs in wins, starts (24), innings (136) and strikeouts (156). He was named the AL's Pitcher of the Month in July when he won all six of his starts. He was 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA at home last season as opposed to 5-2 with a 3.66 mark on the road while allowing just nine HRs overall. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-16-18 | Predators -155 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -155 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Avalanche went from the NHL's worst team a year ago (by a wide margin) to a team that went 43-30-9 this season, while earning the West's final wild card spot with 95 points (one more than the Blues' 94!). However, the Avs drew the Nashville Predators in the first round, a team which itself was an 8-seed in the West last season but made an impressive Stanley Cup run that didn't end until Game 6 of the Finals! Nashville built off last year's playoff success and entered this year's playoffs as the team with the most points (117) of any NHL club in the regular season. The Preds held serve in Games 1 and 2, winning 5-2 and 5-4. The series now shifts to Denver, with the Avalanche hoping that the Rocky Mountain air will breathe new life into this series. The Avalanche matched franchise records for consecutive home wins (10) and total victories on the season (28) but have dropped 12 straight to the Predators, after losing the first two of this series. Nashville: The Predators have spread their offense around in the first two games of the series, with eight players responsible for the team's 10 goals. Filip Forsberg (team leader with 64 points) and Austin Watson have each scored twice. Ryan Johansen scored in Game 2 to extend his point streak to four contests while defenseman P.K. Subban set up two goals on Saturday to boost his point total to seven (one goal, six assists) in his last eight outings. Viktor Arvidsson led Nashville this year with 29 goals and has one goal and one assists this series. Pelkka Rinne was a big reason Nashville advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals last year and is off a terrific regular season (42-13-4, 2.31 GAA & .927 SP). He looked 'ready for primetime " in Game 1 (25 saves & a .926 SP) but was not as sharp in Game 2 (4 goals allowed in 30 shots). Colorado: "We have been good there all season, we used our energy to our advantage," Hart Trophy candidate Nathan MacKinnon said about playing in Denver. "We have won some big games at home. Everyone feels good coming to the Pepsi Center, and hopefully we can get some offense there." MacKinnon (team high 39 goals and 97 points) recorded his fourth multi-point performance of his postseason career with a goal and an assist in Saturday's Game 2 loss. MacKinnon has eight points (two goals, six assists) in his last seven games and captain Gabriel Landeskog has seven (two goals, five assists) in that stretch after scoring and setting up a goal in Game 2. While the statistics are piling up, the wins are not. |
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04-15-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: It's been a record-setting inaugural season for the Vegas Golden Knights and the team is keeping things very interesting in its first-ever Stanley Cup playoff series. Vegas leads its best-of-seven series with the LA Kings 2-0, following up a tense 1-0 victory in the series opener with an even more dramatic win in Game 2, prevailing 2-1 in double overtime. “It’s a fun series right now,” Golden Knights head coach Gerard Gallant said. “Fun for us because we’re up 2-0 obviously. I’m sure they’re not too happy right now, but we’re going back to their building and we know it’s going to be a battle back there." Those comments make sense, as the Kings are hoping,"What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas!" The Kings certainly hope a return home will enable them to turn the tables on the Pacific Division champions and avoid falling into an 0-3 hole on Sunday night at the Staples Center.Vegas: Erik Haula had scored a combined 29 goals over his previous two seasons with the Minnesota Wild but matched that in his first campaign with Vegas, although nothing could equal the feeling of his double-OT game-winner on Friday night. "It's one of the best feelings in sports, I think, is finishing the game in that fashion," said Haula, the team's second-leading goal scorer. Alex Tuch scored the other goal, the Golden Knights' first on the power play against the Kings this season. Karlsson led the team in goals (43) and points (78) but is pointless in the first two games of the series. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury hasn't needed much help, with an 0.39 GAA average and .983 SP (one goal allowed in 60 shots) in the first two games.LA Kings: Star defenseman Drew Doughty will return from a one-game suspension for the Kings, who are not showing any signs of panic despite losing the longest game in franchise history. “It’s not devastating,” Los Angeles head coach John Stevens said. “We expended a lot of energy but it doesn’t matter if you win in regulation or in quadruple overtime, it still counts as one. They won their two home games so we have to go home and get to work.” Fleury's been spectacular but the Kings can't ask for much more from their goaltender, as Jonathan Quick, who turned aside 81 of 84 shots in Las Vegas and set a franchise playoff record with 54 saves in Game 2,.
The pick: Returning to Quick, the Kings have to be worried that they have put way too much pressure on him (84 shots on goal) and are well aware that the Goldn Knights are a dangerous offensive team and eventually, some of the shots will find the back of the net. "Must win" situation for the Kings and Fleury was more vulnerable this season away from home. Make the Over a 10* play. |