The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, while the home side goes with David Price.

The pitchers: Cole is so far 13-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. Cole clearly comes in confident here sporting a 6-3, 2.79 ERA record on the road as well.

Price is so far 14-6 with a 3.60 ERA. He got hit by a liner in his last start, but he’s been given the green light to go here. Price is putting together one of his best campaigns of his career as well, note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA at home so far.

The pick: This is a great match-up and I expect these two “studs” to fight into the latter frames. And as a result, look for this one to sneak “under” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound this evening makes the Tribe on the “run-line” the correct call in this match-up. The Indians go with the steady Carlos Carrasco, while the home side goes with the erratic Marco Estrada.

The pitchers: Carrasco is so far 16-8 with a 3.52 ERA. He most recently comes in off his worst outing of 2018, allowing five runs off nine hits (also striking out nine) over seven innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Starts like that have been rare for Carrasco the last two years though, so there’s no need to over-react in my opinion. Note that he still owns a sharp 3.53 ERA and 187:33 K/BB over 161 innings of work this season.

Estrada is so far 7-11 with a 5.43 ERA. He most recently got blasted for a second straight start, giving up six earned run over 4.1 innings in a loss to Miami on Saturday. Estrada is limping towards the finish line now, having allowed 48 base runners over his last 23.2 innings of work.

The pick: And note that home field advantage has been anything but for Estrada this year as he’s a poor 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA in Toronto. Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -225 range. Play on the Indians on the “run line.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound, and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Kennedy, while the home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani.

The pitchers: Kennedy is so far 1-2 with a 5.76 ERA. The rookie has struggled for the most part in his limited time and he stays in the starting rotation out of necessity. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA on the road.

DeSclafani is 7-4 with a 4.37 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings. DeSclafani has looked better as the season has progressed and he also sports a sharp 1.19 WHIP.

The pick: Additionally note that DeSclafani is 4-2 with a respectable 4.14 ERA at home. And take it for what you will as well, but the Reds are 7-2 in their last nine night National League home games in which they are a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. I expect DeSclafani to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price, play on the Reds.

The set-up: Two teams with something to prove in 2018/19 collide on Opening Night and in my opinion, scoring is going to be plentiful. The Falcons lost to Philadelphia 15-10 in the NFC Divisional playoffs back on January 13th and they’ll obviously be looking to avenge that setback. Philadelphia has question marks all over the place, but the defending champs are still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball.

The teams: Last year the Falcons led the league in dropped passes with 30. QB Matt Ryan will be expecting better from his talented group this year. Ryan had 4,095 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season. Julio Jones had 1,444 receiving yards, but just three major scores. ATL still possess one of the best “one-two” RB combo’s in Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman as well. The Eagles allowed only 19.7 PPG last year, but note that they had just eight INT’s overall.

Carson Wentz? Nick Foles? Whoever starts under center for Philadelphia, the home side is in good hands. In three playoff games Foles completed 72.6 percent of his passes. Jay Ajayi is the main RB now, along with Corey Clement, who is a great pass catcher out of the backfield. The strength of the offense is the line though and it will be once again this year as well with the return of Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters.

The pick: The last thing Atlanta can do here is play to the Eagles “pace.” Look for the high-flying visitors to push the tempo from start to finish and expect this total to soar “over” as it comes down the stretch.

The set-up: This American League match-up on Wednesday night features two pitchers who have seen better days. I expect the total to eclipse the number sooner, rather than later in this one. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner, while the home side goes with Mike Leake.

The pitchers: Cashner is so far 4-13 with a 4.86 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off nine hits with three walks over 5.1 innings while striking out one in a loss to the Royals on Friday. Note that Cashner comes in sport a terrible 2-7, 5.27 ERA record on the road.

Leake is so far 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off seven hits in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. Overall Leake’s been solid for the most part this season, although not really at home with a pedestrian 3-5, 4.29 ERA record.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten night American League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt this is one of them. Yanks’ ace Luis Severino is a favorite for a reason in this match-up, but I think he’s a little over-valued. In the end I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs and the reasonable price on Mike Fiers and the home side.

The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA. After an unsustainable start, Severino cooled off some over August. He’s been solid overall, although he does sport a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Fiers is so far 10-6 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. In four previous starts for the A’s Fiers had been nearly un-hittable, but he’d finally come back down to Earth in this one.

The pick: Starts like that though have been few and far between for Fiers this season, who still owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP over 146.2 innings of work. Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League home games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. Play on the A’s on the “run line.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I believe that Hyun Jin-Ryu and the Dodgers are worth the price of admission tonight. The visitors go with Zack Wheeler.

The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over seven innings, striking out none and receiving a no-decision for his effort against the Giants on Friday. Wheeler’s been on a great run of late, but one has to wonder how long he can sustain without showing some sort of regression?

Ryu is so far 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings while also striking out five in a no-decision to Arizona on Friday. Over 52.1 innings Ryu has a 2.24 ERA and tiny 0.96 WHIP.

The pick: Ryu is also holding the opposition to a minuscule .186 batting average and note that he’s 3-1 with a 1.21 ERA at home. As good as Wheeler has been, I think the Mets’ anemic offense comes up short against Ryu. Look for the Dodgers to take advantage and lay this price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. In fact I feel that the talent-gap is so great between these starting pitchers, that I have no issues at all in laying this larger price. The visitors go with Homer Bailey, while the home side goes with Jameson Taillon.

The pitchers: Bailey is so far 1-13 with a 6.13 ERA. He most recently was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Friday. To go along with his atrocious ERA, Bailey also owns a poor 1.65 WHIP and note that he’s just 1-7 with a 5.94 ERA on the road.

Taillon is so far 11-9 with a 3.45 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over seven innings while striking out seven in a 3-2 win over the Braves on Friday.

The pick: Taillon comes in smoking hot, having posted seven straight quality starts to go along with a sharp 2.64 ERA and 37:9 K/BB over 47.2 frames during that stretch. Look for Taillon to come in focused on the task at hand and lay this price without any worries.

PITCHING CHANGE! NO PLAY! 

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is no doubt one of them. In fact I feel that the talent-gap is so large between these starters, that I have no issues at all in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to Alex Cobb, while the home side goes with Wade LeBlanc.

The pitchers: Cobb is so far 4-15 with a 5.11 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off eight hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Wednesday. Seven of the eight hits he gave up were for extra bases. Note that he’s just 4-8 with a 5.22 ERA on the road this year.

LeBlanc is so far 8-3 with a 3.71 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless in a victory over the A’s on Thursday. LeBlanc hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been sharp at home with a 6-2, 3.75 ERA record.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle is 8-3 in its last 11 night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. Look for Cobb to implode early and for LeBlanc to take take advantage. Lay the price.

The set-up: These starters have looked brilliant at times this year and poor in others. Neither has looked great of late though and I think each is going to get the hook early in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 15-7 with a 4.27 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Over five August starts Porcello stumbled to a 2-3, 4.78 ERA performance.

Newcomb is so far 11-7 with a 3.85 ERA. He most recently was rocked for six runs off eight hits with two walks in a loss to the Rays on Wednesday. Over his last four starts he’s posted a horrible 8.48 ERA and clearly that doesn’t bode well facing the league’s No. 1 offense.

The pick: I think Porcello takes a step back in this difficult National League venue, while Newcomb also looks poised to continue his spiral down the proverbial crapper against this elite hitting line-up. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: It’s an important ACC match-up on Monday night between the No. 20 VT Hokies and the No. 19 FSU Seminoles.

The teams: Virginia Tech was 9-4 last year and 5-3 in in league play, which was then followed by a 30-21 loss to OK State in the Camping World Bowl. Last year the Hokies averaged 28.2 PPG and allowed just 14.8. While duplicating those suffocating defensive numbers will be difficult with many of those key players gone, the pieces are still in place for another productive campaign on that side of the ball. Josh Jackson is the man under center and he finished with a 20/9 TD/INT and had 324 rushing yards as well.

Florida State went 7-6 last year and 3-5 in ACC play, followed by a loss to Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 PPG last year and they allowed 21.2. The defense was a strength last season and it will be again this year as well with many of the starters returning. Deondre Francois is the starting QB and he missed most of last season with injury.

The pick: Francois though had a 20/8 TD:INT in 2016 and he comes in with a ton of experience. Take it for what you will as well, but VT is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog. I think FSU is the more complete team through all three phases, as questions do remain about VT’s defense. Lay the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. In fact I think that the talent-gap is so large on the hill tonight that I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs on Zack Godley and the home side. The Padres turn to Bryan Mitchell.

The pitchers: Mitchell is so far 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA. He’s been activated from the DL to make this start. To go along with his terrible ERA, note that Mitchell also has a disturbingly poor 23:35 K/BB over 48.1 innings of work.

Godley is so far 14-7 with a 4.42 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits and a walk while striking out six over eight innings in a victory over the Giants on Wednesday. Godley has now posted a quality start in four of his last six outings.

The pick: Note as well that Godley has been at his best at home this year by going 6-3 with a 3.52 ERA. Look for Godley to build off his latest performance and lay the 1.5 runs with confidence. Play on the Diamondbacks on the “run line.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound, and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Matt Harvey, while the home side goes with the steady Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Harvey is so far 6-7 with a 4.97 ERA. He most recently was rocked for five runs off 11 hits over four innings in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Wednesday. Note that Harvey is a poor 2-5 with a 4.98 ERA on the road.

Williams is so far 11-9 with a 3.30 ERA. He’s been a revelation for the Pirates this season and he’s been particularly potent of late. Note that Williams owns a very respectable 2.91 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is 9-3 in its last 12 National League home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. No upsets here as I think Williams comes in focused and out-duels Harvey. Play on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with Touki Toussaint.

The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA. After an unreal start for the Red Sox, Eovaldi predictably came crashing back down to Earth shortly after. Eovaldi hasn’t forgotten how to pitch though and note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games by posting a 4-1, 1.95 ERA record.

Toussaint is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. In his first outing for the Braves he’d impress everyone by giving up one run over six innings in a victory over Miami. Clearly the Red Sox present an entirely different challenge, but the rookie showed enough to impress me to make me think he’ll be able to last into the latter frames again here.

The pick: I think there’s a ton of value on the “under” as I expect these hungry starting pitchers to fight into the latter frames. This number is just a little high, play the “under.”

analysis soon

The set-up: This is the lone game on Sunday night and for a number of different reasons, I think that points will be at a premium. Note that this is being played at a neutral field, at AT&T Stadium in Dallas.

The teams: Miami Florida was 10-3 last year, including 7-2 in the ACC, followed by a setback to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl. The Hurricanes return QB Malik Rosier, who had 3,120 passing yards and a 26:14 TD/INT along with 468 rushing yards. Miami averaged 29.1 PPG and it allowed just 21.

LSU was 9-4 last year and 6-2 in SEC play, which was followed by a loss to Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl. The Tigers have a big void to fill this season with QB Danny Etling gone. Myles Brennan and Joe Burrow will be duking it for the No. 1 spot. LSU averaged 27.2 PPG last year, but I think it’ll struggle to match that pace early. The defense was a strength (giving up only 18.9 PPG) and it will be again this year as well.

The pick: These teams both have question marks on offense coming into the season, but each looks ready to build off an impressive defensive campaign with an even better performance this year. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Two pitchers who have seen better days collide on Sunday afternoon in this American League match-up. I believe runs will be plentiful with the Mariners turning to Felix Hernandez and the A’s going with Edwin Jackson.

The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 8-12 with a 5.49 ERA. Hernandez has admittedly looked a lot better since an early August move to the bullpen in two subsequent starts, but note that he’s still a brutal 4-7 with a 6.95 ERA on the road.

Jackson is so far 4-3 with a 3.03 ERA. After an un-sustainable start to his 2018/19 campaign, he’s come back down to Earth of late. Regardless though, Jackson has been decent overall, but note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.17 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 14 day American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. However, I think that Aaron Nola and the Phillies are well worth the price of admission in this one. The visitors go with veteran Jon Lester on the mound

The pitchers: Lester is so far 14-5 with a 3.67 ERA. He most recently comes in off a couple of decent outings and overall the southpaw has been fantastic this season. Lester’s been great, I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Nola is so far 15-3 with a 2.10 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back gems over the Nationals and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. Note that he’s 9-0 with a tiny 1.94 ERA at home as well.

The pick: I’m banking on Nola continuing his strong play as he continues his perfect streak at home. Play on Philadelphia.

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who come into the end of the season struggling. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd, while the home side goes with Lance Lynn.

The pitchers: Boyd is so far 8-12 with a 4.22 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing against the light-hitting Royals on Wednesday and while Boyd’s likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, note that he’s still a very poor 2-9 with a 5.95 ERA on the road this year.

Lynn is so far 8-9 with a 4.84 ERA. After a great stretch, Lynn has come back down to Earth of late for the Yanks. Note that he owns a poor 2-4, 5.90 ERA in all “day” games this season also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine day American League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Both teams have looked decent early, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Tottenham.

The pitchers: Watford has defeated Brighton, Burnley and Crystal Palace and it also bested Reading mid-week in the EFL Cup.

The Spurs though present an entirely different challenge, who also come in with three straight victories to open. Tottenham has bested Newcastle 2-1, Fulham 3-1 and it then ended its losing streak at Old Trafford on Monday with a 3-0 victory.

The pick: Note that Hornets are still winless in the last 13 in this series, including losing ten outright. Look for this strong trend to continue and lay the very reasonable mid-sized price on the “better” team.

The set-up: This is a neutral site affair and I think points will be at a premium. Louisville was 8-5 last year and it lost 31-27 to Mississippi State in the TaxSalyer Bowl, while Alabama went 13-1 and won the College Football Championship with a 26-23 OT win over Georgia.

The teams: The Cardinals were 8-5 last year and only 4-4 in the ACC. Heisman QB Lamar Jackson is gone and there’s also a new defensive coordinator in Brian VanGorder. Louisville was 11th in the FBS in scoring last season, but that was with Jackson. The defense was in the middle though by allowing 27.4 PPG and it will be again this year as well. Jawon Pass is now the main man under center, he has 238 yards and two TD’s for his career. The run game focuses around Dae Williams and Trey Smith.

Alabama averaged 37.1 PPG and it allowed just 11.9. Note that seven different time the Tide would hold an opponent to just single digits. Jalen Hurts had 2,081 yards, 17 TD’s, as well as 855 rushing yards and eight more TD’s.

The pick: I think the defending champs control this one on both sides of the ball as the Tide look to roll to another National Championship. This one has “chess match,” written all over it. Play the “under.”

The set-up: While I obviously don’t think the Bowling Green Falcons will win this one outright, I do think that Oregon will come out a bit flat against its lowly opponent.

The teams: The Green Falcons went 2-10 in 2017, but experience at the skill positions should see Bowling Green inch closer to .500 this year. Jarret Doege is back as QB, he had 1,381 yards, 12 TD’s and just three INT’s after taking over half way through. Andrew Clair returns as the top RB, he had a respectable 725 and a 6.8 yards per carry average. The defense was a weak point last year and will be again this season, however it should be a lot better with many starters returning, including Brandon Harris, who had 92 tackles.

The Ducks have a Heisman hopeful in QB Justin Hebert, who had 1,983 yards and 15 TD’s and in eight games last year. Oregon has a ton of depth at RB, but filling the void of 5,600 rusher Royce Freeman obviously won’t be easy. Tony Brooks-James had 498 yard rushing last year. Oregon has question marks in the receiving game. It also has five projected defensive starters as sophomores.

The pick: With nothing to lose, I think an improved Bowling Green team can keep this one interesting. Or at least somewhat competitive until late in the third. Either way, grab all these points, play on the Falcons.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Bruins are a terrible 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games as well. Cincinnati has a very real shot at posting an outright upset against the “rudder-less” Bruins, but I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who have seen better days. I think runs will definitely be plentiful in this one with the Mets sending Stephen Matz to the hill and the home side going with Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Matz is so far 5-11 with a 4.36 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Nationals on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits with one walk in what turned out to be a loss. Matz has been more “miss” than “hit” this year though, especially on the road where he’s just 4-5 with a 5.53 ERA.

Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits in a win over Texas on Sunday. Holland has been sharp of late, but note that he does own a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine day road National League games in which it’s an underdog in the -105 to -135 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Jeremy Pruitt is the new head coach of the Tennessee Vols and he’ll have his hands full right out of the gate with WVU up first. Note that this is a neutral site game at Charlotte and this is the first time ever that the programs have battled each other.

The teams: The Mountaineers finished the 2017 season with a 7-5 record. WVU will be led by Will Grier under center, as he returns for his senior season.

The Vols are coming off a 4-8 season. QB Keller Chryst is going to be leaned upon heavily here to bring stability to the offense. Tennessee also picked up RB’s Chance Hall and Trey Smith, who should keep opposing defenses honest. Receiver Jauan Jennings is a difference maker and I think he’ll get his opportunities against WVU. Jennings will be out to prove himself after he broke his wrist in the 2017 season opener.

The pick: This is a very early release. As game time approaches, I plan to update my analysis. However, I do indeed believe that the stage is set for a competitive affair. WVU knows how to put points on the board, but its defense was its achilles heel last year. The Mountaineers may even be caught “looking past” their lowly opponent to its difficult upcoming schedule and in this neutral site affair. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I’m banking on a tighter than expected battle. Grab the points, play on the Vols.

The set-up: It’s the Pac-12 and Big Ten on Saturday afternoon. Oregon State was just 1-11 last year, while Ohio State went 12-2. The Buckeyes would go on to beat USC 24-7 in the Cotton Bowl and I believe the tooth-less Beavers will have difficulty moving the sticks this afternoon as well.

The teams: Last year Oregon State put up just 20.7 PPG, while allowing 43. QB Jake Luton had 853 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s. Artavis Pierce was the standout on the ground with 323 yards and a TD.

The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game and then smoked USC in the Cotton Bowl. Seven starters return to an offense which averaged 41.1 points. The defense was ranked 15th overall, allowing only 19 PPG. QB Dwayne Haskins had 565 yards and four TD’s.

The pick: Oregon State hasn’t had a winning season since 2013 and the Beavers are going to have their hands full again in 2018/19. Ohio State will look to control this one while on offense with its devastating ground attack, while also shutting the Beavers down from start to finish. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: I’m expecting a blowout here. The Longhorns went just 7-6 last year, but they return 14 players. Maryland has off-season issues to deal with, including the tragic death of right guard Jordan McNair due to heat stroke in June during drills. With the Terps’ minds on “other” things right now, look for Texas to break this one wide open.

The teams: Texas starts QB Sam Ehlinger, who is 6’ 3” 240 LBS. Last year he had 1,915 yards, 11 TD’s and seven picks while also running for 385 yards and two more scores. Overall Texas averaged 29.5 PPG and the defense made massive strides last season by allowing only 21.2 PPG. Overall the ‘Horns ranked second in the Big 12 and eighth in the country in rush defense. Many defensive starters return and the unit will clearly be a strength of the team this year as well.

With the death of McNair, the entire coaching staff had to be let go in the wake of the scandal for the poor Terps. Maryland was 4-8 overall last year and finished near the bottom of every category both offensively and defensively (allowed 37 PPG.)

The pick: Texas will have plenty of fans from Landover and I think the ‘Horns can smell the blood in the water. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: The Conf. USA is on the road to take on the Big 12, as the FAU Owls are big underdogs against the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday afternoon. Both teams come off big 2018’s, as FAU was 11-3, while Oklahoma went 12-2 and it lost to Georgia 54-48 in the Rose Bowl.

The teams: FAU had a great year in Lane Kiffin’s first year as coach. But even more so than the Sooners today, the Owls have a major transition period upcoming after QB Jason Driskel moved on. That means that De’Andre Johnson, Chris Robinson or Rafe Peavey will all see time under center. The rest of the offense remains loaded in talent.

Baker Mayfield is gone for the Sooners, meaning that Kyler Murray (18 of 21 for 359 yards, three TD’s and 142 rushing yards last year) becomes the “main man.” The defense was a strength last season for Oklahoma, allowing 27.1 points and it should only be better this year with many key pieces returning.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oklahoma is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FAU is a poor 0-8 ATS in its last eight against the Big 12 Conference. No Mayfield, ho problem! Look for the Sooners’ wealth of depth be just too much for the Owls to handle on opening weekend. Lay the points.

The set-up: It’s the Mountain West Conference on the road to East Lansing, Michigan to take on the Spartans. Note that this is the first ever meeting between the schools. Last year Utah State was 6-7, while Michigan State went 10-3.

The teams: Utah State finished with a losing record, but it was enough for a Bowl spot (lost 26-20 to New Mexico State in the Arizona Bowl.) Note though that the Aggies return 52 of 67 lettermen back, including nine starters on each side of the ball. Utah State averaged 30.2 PPG last season with Jordan Love going for 1,631 yards, eight TD’s and six INT’s. The defense was a weak point, but seven of the unit’s top eight tacklers return and their linebacking corp rates as second best in the Conference. In the end the defense allowed 26.9 PPG.

The Spartans averaged 24.5 PPG and allowed 20.0. QB Brian Lewerke is back and he had 2,793 yards with 20 TD’s and seven INT’s. Michigan State also returns its top three receivers. Last season the secondary was ranked 7th in the country and the defense will be a strength this year as well.

The pick: I think this sets up as a bit of a trap for Michigan State though. The Aggies come in under the radar and their high-octane offense, combined with their experienced defensive unit makes the visitors the correct call here. Grab the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. I think that Corey Kluber and the Indians on the “run line” are the correct call in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow this evening.

The pitchers: Glasnow is so far 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Thursday. Glasnow has been serviceable this season, but note that he’s a terrible 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA on the road.

Kluber is 16-7 with a 2.91 ERA. Kluber comes in off perhaps the worst start of his career, giving up five runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Royals on Saturday.

The pick: No reason to hit the panic button if you’re a Kluber fan though, who is 8-3 with a 2.24 ERA at home. Take it for what you will as well, but the Tribe are 7-2 in their last nine night home contests in which they are a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 runs and expect a blowout.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is one of them. However for a number of different reasons I think runs are going to be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Luis Severino.

The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings, striking out five and picking up a win over the Cubs on Tuesday. For the most part the veteran has been solid this year, especially on the road with a 3-2, 2.34 ERA in all “night” games.

Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.27 ERA. He’s been a bit shaky of late, but overall Severino is enjoying a tremendous season. Note that he’s 9-2 with a tiny 2.73 ERA in “home” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 18 night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This is the fourth straight season that these teams have met. Duke finished over .500 last year and it’s going to expect an even bigger step this season. Army comes in off one of its best campaigns of all time, which included a victory over Navy in the annual Army/Navy game. Regression does seem imminent though for a unit which has seen a lot of turnover.

The teams: Army also got the better of SDSU in the Armed Forces Bowl and finished 10-3 overall. Offensive leader Ahmad Bradshaw is gone though, meaning that Kelvin Hopkins will be leaned upon. Andy Davidson and Darnell Woolfolk are back and they combined for 1,439 rushing yards and 19 TD’s. Overall the defense ranked 32nd and the unit will once again be the strength of the team this season.

Duke is led by QB Daniel Jones, who had 14 TD’s and 11 picks last year (both worse than when he was a freshman). You’ll also want to keep your eyes on WR TJ Rahming, who had 65 snags for 800 yards last season.

The pick: Both teams have key playmakers on both sides of the ball to replace this year. Opening up the season on the road against a Power Five opponent is tough though and I think Army will stumble in its first test. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray, while the home side goes with Rich Hill.

The pitchers: Ray is so far 3-2 with a 4.73 ERA. After going 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA last season, 2018 has been a grind for Ray. He’s coming off a decent outing against the light-hitting Reds on Saturday, but note that he’s still owns a poor 5.57 ERA in all “night” games.

Hill is so far 6-4 with a 3.50 ERA. The veteran comes in off back-to-back gems, posting a tiny 1.38 EA over his last 30 frames of work. Hill has to be feeling pretty confident here as well as note that he’s 6-3 with a very respectable 3.01 ERA in all night games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is now 7-3 in its last ten night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -175 range. I like Hill to continue his end of season surge and I look for Ray to get the hook early. Lay the price.

The set-up: This is a match-up of the AAC’s East Division and while I’m clearly not going to call for an outright upset, I do definitely think that the Huskies can keep this one competitive.

The teams: UCF was 13-0 last year, finishing with a 34-27 victory over Auburn in the Peach Bowl. McKenzie Milton is back under center for the Knights this year, he had 4,037 yards and 37 TD’s last season. The ground game is also strong with Adrian Killins Jr. and Dredrick Snelson.

UConn was 3-9 last year, it’s seventh straight losing season. Randy Edsall has taken over as head coach and he’ll be looking for a much better showing in 2018/19 (obviously). David Pindell is now the man under center, last year he had 937 yards, four TD’s, six INT’s and 289 rushing yards with another four rushing TD’s. RB Nate Hopkins had 343 yards and seven TD’s.

The pick: Not surprisingly, this is a revenge game for the Huskies, who have lost two in a row in the series, including a 49-24 road setback last November. UConn though returns several starters on each line and I think that’s going to make a big difference in the early going. UCF has a favorable 2018/19 schedule, with another “cream puff” in Week 2 against South Carolina State. I ultimately believe that UCF comes out a bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the hungry Huskies to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points.

The set-up: Detroit is 1-2 so far in the preseason, while Cleveland is 2-1. I think the Browns simply go through the motions today though as they look ahead to Week 1. Conversely, I believe the Lions will be looking for a little more momentum as they head into the Regular season and as such, I expect them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover in front of the home town crowd.

The teams: The Browns come in off a very satisfying win over the defending champion Eagles at home in Week 3. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Baker Mayfield will see the majority of snaps today. Last week he was 8 of 12 for 76 yards, while RB Nick Chubb added 46 rushing yards.

Matt Stafford won’t be suiting up for Detroit, meaning Matt Cassel and Jake Rudock will continue to battle it out for the official No. 1 backup QB spot. Cassel and Rudock though looked great in last week’s come from behind 33-30 win, combining to go 16 of 23 for 118 yards and two touchdowns.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, I think Cleveland is already “looking ahead” to the “real thing.” The Lions will look to take advantage and send the home side crowd home happy on Thursday night. Lay the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. That said, I think Miles Mikolas will find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Williams is so far 10-9 with a 3.44 ERA. For the most part Williams has completely exceeded expectations for Pittsburgh this year, but if the big right-hander has had one clear area of weakness, it’s definitely been his play on the road where he owns a pedestrian 4.01 ERA.

Mikolas is so far 13-3 with a 2.94 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off 12 hits over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to St. Louis on Friday. It was arguably the worst start of his career, so I’m not going to over-react to one poor effort. Note that despite the shoddy performance he still owns a sharp 2.94 ERA and elite 1.09 WHIP

The pick: Also note that Mikolas is a “lights out” 6-3 with a 2.13 ERA at home this season. I’m banking on Mikolas bouncing back in a big way in front of the home town crowd tonight. Lay the price.

The set-up: This line should be a lot larger in my professional opinion. New York is undefeated in five matches and it currently sits in second place in the Eastern Conference. The Dynamo on the other hand are winless in five straight. In fact Houston lost four straight, before managing a very satisfying “draw” against Dallas last time out.

The pick: Bradley Wright-Phillips failed to score in the win against DC United last time out, and things won’t get any easier in this difficult venue either. Both teams have injuries, but the Red Bulls’ main offensive weapons in Alberth Elis and Mauro Manotas will both be in the line-up tonight. And that’s good enough for me, lay the price and expect a blowout.

The set-up: This one has “blowout” written all over it. The massive talent-gap on the mound tonight makes Sean Newcomb and the hard-hitting home side well worth the price of admission. The visitors hand the ball to Diego Castillo.

The pitchers: Castillo is so far 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA. Castillo has been decent in his limited time on the mound, but so far the rookie has been under a strict pitch count each time he’s gone to the hill. And that won’t change here either in this difficult National League venue.

Newcomb is so far 11-6 with a 3.57 ERA. He most recently allowed two hits while striking out eight over six scoreless in a victory over the Marlins on Thursday. Newcomb had struggled previous to this outing, but the southpaw definitely got back on track with this latest effort.

The pick: Note as well that Newcomb has been “lights out” in this spot all season with an 8-3, 2.77 ERA in all “night” games. I believe Castillo gets the hook early and I look for Newcomb to build off his last start. Play on the Braves.

The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and taking the home side on the “run-line.” The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Richards, while the home side goes with David Price.

The pitchers: Richards is so far 3-7 with a 4.23 ERA. He’s coming off a couple of sub-par outings and note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this season with a 1-4, 5.74 ERA.

Price is so far 14-6 with a 3.50 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless against the Tribe on Thursday, striking out seven and allowing just three hits in the commanding performance.

The pick: Price has arguably been the hottest pitcher in all of baseball over the second half, posting a tiny 1.09 ERA and an impressive 40:7 K/BB over six starts. I believe the veteran continues his end of season progression with another gem. Play on the Red Sox on the “run line.”

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two starters who have seen better days. I absolutely think that each will get the hook early, which will ultimately help in pushing this total “over,” sooner rather than later. The visitors go with Mike Fulmer, while the home side goes with Danny Duffy.

The pitchers: Fulmer is so far 3-9 with a 4.32 ERA. He looked decent against the tooth-less White Sox in his first start back from the DL last week, but overall it’s been a disappointing season for Fulmer, who is just 2-3 with a terrible 5.51 ERA on the road.

Duffy is so far 7-11 with a 4.85 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off six hits with two walks while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the light-hitting Rays on Thursday. It was his first start back from the DL as well. Note that in two starts prior to getting injured he was shelled for 12 earned runs over 10.1 innings in early August.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine road day games in which the line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and in my opinion, this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though I think this one favors Kyle Freeland and the hard-hitting Rockies. The home side sends Noe Ramirez to the hill.

The pitchers: Freeland is so far 11-7 with a 2.96 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits over seven innings while also going on to strike out seven in a victory over the Padres on Thursday. To go along with his highly respectable ERA, Freeland also owns a shape 136:57 K/BB over 158.1 innings this season.

Ramirez is 4-4 with a 4.69 ERA. He’s been recalled from the minors to make this start and while the sky could in fact be the limit for Ramirez, there’s no question that he draws a difficult match-up in the Rockies’ dangerous hitting line-up.

The pick: Freeland’s the correct call here. Ramirez gets chased early and I look for visiting side to take full advantage. Lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I had a play on the “under” when these two squared off against each other last week in the Phillies’ eventual late inning victory. Clearly these are two of the best in the World going head-to-head, but I think these talented hitting line-ups will produce just enough offense this time around to push the total above this tiny number.

The pitchers: Max Scherzer is 16-6 with a 2.13 ERA. He gave up two runs off two hits with four walks while striking out ten over seven innings in the 2-0 loss to Philadelphia last week.

Aaron Nola is so far 15-3 with a 2.13 ERA. He went eight scoreless against the Nats and he’s now gone 3-0 while posting 25 strikeouts over his last 21 innings of work.

The pick: Clearly it’s impossible to say anything negative about either of these guys. But note that the Phillies have seen the total go “over” the number in eight of their last ten night home games as an underdog in the +100 to +175 range. This number is just a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of match-ups with relative “no names” going head to head on the mound and this is obviously one of them. I think runs will be plentiful this evening. The visitors go with Thomas Pannone, while the home side goes with Josh Rogers.

The pitchers: Pannone is so far 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He made three appearances out of the bullpen for his major league debut last week, but he’s been recalled now to make his very first start. Clearly the sky is the limit for Pannone, but I think he’ll take a small step back in this difficult venue.

Ramirez was supposed to get the start here, but Baltimore has made a late Tuesday morning change to Josh Rogers, who makes his MLB season debut today. The sky may be the limit for Rogers, but I think he’ll struggle against this difficult and determined opponent.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten night road games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I’m banking on these starting pitchers getting chased early and for this total going “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. When it’s all said and done though, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side goes with Dylan Bundy.

The teams: Severino is so far 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA. After an almost unstoppable start to the 2018 campaign, he’s come back down to Earth over the last month and a half, but he does enter off a decent start against the punch-less White Sox. Severino has been elite, but note he does possess a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Bundy is so far 7-12 with a 5.31 ERA. The veteran finished 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last year, but he’s been a complete disaster this season. Especially at home where he is a poor 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 22 night home games in which it’s an underdog in the +150 to +250 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I don’t expect Zack Greinke to have a letdown here, as he’s consistently been at this best at home. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake in this one.

The teams: Leake is so far 8-7 with a 3.90 ERA. Leake missed his last start due to an illness and while he’s been decent overall this year, one has to wonder if the veteran has completely recovered at this point?

Greinke is so far 12-8 with a 3.06 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs with seven strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Sunday. Greinke continues to grind out consistent results, along with his very respectable ERA he also has a sharp 165:32 K/BB.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, Greinke has been a lot better at home this year (5-3, 2.34) than on the road (7-5, 3.76). And take it for what you will, but Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. No upsets here, lay the price.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups and this is one of them in my opinion. I think runs are going to be at a premium in this inter-league contest on Sunday. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Marco Estrada.

The teams: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.06 ERA. While he’s struggled a bit of late, overall the hard-throwing right-hander has been solid overall this year, especially on the road where he owns a sharp 2.77 ERA to this point.

Estrada is so far 7-9 with a 4.88 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back decent outings and note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games this season with a 2-2, 3.11 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Jays have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of their last 11 day home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is too high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I’m expecting this total to sneak over the number by the end of the game. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Ryan Yarbrough.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 15-6 with a 4.14 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing against the Indians and while’s been strong overall this season, note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.91 ERA in all “night” games.

Yarbrough is so far 12-5 with a 3.84 ERA. He has been “hit or miss” over the last month though and while the rookie has clearly exceeded expectations to this point, I’ll point out that he still owns a rather “ho hum” 4.14 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine as night road favorite in the -125 to -200 range, while Tampa has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 17 night home games as an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. I believe runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger, while the home side goes with Brad Keller.

The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 9-7 with a 3.25 ERA. He comes in off a gem against the Orioles on Sunday, allowing no runs off seven hits with seven strikeouts over six innings in the victory. So far Clevinger has 155 strikeouts over 157.2 frames of work. Also note that he owns a sharp 2.75 ERA on the road this season.

Keller is so far 6-5 with a 3.32 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back strong starts and note that the rookie has been at his best at home with the 3-1, 3.20 ERA to this point.

The pick: Neither of these guys is running out of gas, in fact each looks as if they’re getting stronger as the season is wearing on. I find absolutely no reason whatsoever not to believe that these two can’t carry that momentum over again here. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Sean Manaea and the hard-hitting A’s. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi.

The pitchers: Manaea is so far 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off nine hits in a rare “dud” of a performance in a setback to Houston on Sunday. He’s been scuffling a bit of late, but Manaea still owns a sharp 3.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. And note that he’s been particularly good on the road with the 6-3, 3.50 ERA record.

Odorizzi is so far 5-7 with a 4.55 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off four hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Tigers on Sunday. It was the fifth straight start in which he’s failed to pitch a full six frames.

The pick: Note as well that Odorizzi owns a poor 5.52 ERA at home this season. I like Manaea to get back on track here after a couple of sub-par performances and to continue his strong play away from friendly confines, while I look for Odorrizi to continue his shoddy form in front of the home town crowd. Play on Oakland.

The set-up: Week 3 of the NFL Preseason sees the Giants hit the road to MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Giants.

The teams: The Giants come in with a ton of momentum after knocking off the Lions 30-17 in Week 2. And that was with Eli Manning, Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. sitting on the sidelines. QB Davis Webb was 14 of 20 for 140 yards and a TD. Even without Barkley in the backfield the Giants’ run game looked sharp, with Wayne Gallman, Kyle Lauletta and Robert Martin all with a rushing touchdown.

The Jets are 1-1 in the preseason, most recently coming off a disheartening 15-13 road loss at Washington. QB Sam Darnold was mediocre by going 8 of 11 for 61 yards and an INT. Backup Teddy Bridgewater was 17 of 23 for 212 yards, two touchdowns and an INT.

The pick: The Giants looked good with their offensive stars on the sideline last week, but now Manning, Barkley and Odell are expected to see some snaps in Week 3. And despite Bridgewater clearly outplaying Darnold last week, the Jets are expected to instead give the rookie considerable time under center tonight. I like the veteran players of the Giants to step up early and believe that’ll be enough in the end.

The set-up: Denver travels to the Nation’s capital looking for an identity on both sides of the ball. The Redskins have many questions marks as well, but I think Washington’s superior strength at the QB position will prove to be the difference in this Week 3 preseason contest.

The teams: Denver enters off a deflating 24-23 loss to the Bears on Saturday. Backup QB Paxton Lynch was 5 of 11 for 39 yards. QB Chad Kelly was 7 of 9 for 90 yards and a TD. RB Phillip Lindsay was a bright spot though with 32 yards. Defensively the Broncos looked terrible and I think they’ll have their hands full again here in this difficult venue.

Washington comes in with momentum after a 15-13 win over the Jets in Week 2. Alex Smith was 4 of 6 for 48 yards, while the combination of Kevin Hogan and Colt McCoy would go 19 of 27 for 198 yards.

The pick: The Broncos have major QB questions. The Redskins don’t. No need to overthink this one in my opinion as I look for the home side to play like the “hungrier” team and to find a way to get the job done in the end.

The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. I think this game will be decided late or in extra innings and I’m therefore going to recommend to play the Jays on the spread. The Phiillies hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Ryan Borucki.

The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 9-8 with a 3.25 ERA. He has been decent of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Borucki is so far 2-3 with a 4.27 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Yanks, giving up six runs over one innings. While the rookie has scuffled a bit of late, note that he sports the sharp 2.52 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine night home games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Bank on a “nail-biter” and grab the 1.5 runs.

The set-up: Philadelphia is so far 0-2 in the preseason, but I think the defending champs come to play in the Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” Most recently the Eagles fell 37-20 on the road in New England in a clear statement game by the Pats. After a Week 1 win, the Browns predictably came back down to Earth in last weekend’s 19-17 loss at home to the Bills.

The teams: Nick Foles and Carson Wentz have seen limited time so far in the preseason, but each is expected to see some today for the Eagles. Foles was three off nine for 44 yards last week. A bright spot though was the play of third string QB Nate Sudfeld, who was 22 of 39 for 312 yards, posting three TD’s and one INT. Rookie Dallas Goeddert also impressed as he had three catches for 57 yards and when teamed up with TE Zach Ertz, the Eagles remain one of the top offensive threats in the league.

There’s lots to be optimistic about if you’re a Cleveland Browns fan as well though. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield was 7 of 13 for 75 yards last week and the run game posted 164 on the ground, with rookie Nick Chubb leading the way with 53 yards and a TD. The team is now loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Chemistry would seem to be the only thing standing in its way at this point, and I do indeed think it’ll be a contributing detrimental factor working against Cleveland here today as well.

The pick: Despite all of the improvements the Browns have made, they still don’t match up well with Eagles and I believe Philadelphia’s depth will in fact be the deciding factor in this Week 3 NFLX preseason contest. Take the points.

The set-up: This National League contest has “slug-fest” written all over in my opinion. The visitors go with Anthony DeSclafani on the mound, while the home side goes with Cole Hamels.

The pitchers: DeSclafani is so far 6-3 with a 4.12 ERA. He’s been better of late, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 2-3 with a 4.62 ERA in all “night” games this year.

Hamels is so far 8-9 with a 4.00 ERA. Hamels enters off his first shaky start for his new team, but overall the veteran has been sharp since coming over from the Rangers. Hamels has been anything but a “safe-bet” in all “home” situations this year though, coming in with a terrible 1-7, 6.01 ERA in all such instances.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Reds have seen the total go “over” the number in 13 of their last 21 road games as an underdog in the -150 to -200 range. I think that it’s very possible that Hamels’ early shiny numbers for Chicago are completely unsustainable. I’m also not confident that DeSclafani has “turned any corners” quite yet either. Look for this one to sneak “over” as it comes down the stretch.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. Runs would appear to be at a premium this afternoon with these two “studs” going head-to-head. The visitors hand the ball to ace Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with ace Max Scherzer.

The pitchers: Nola is so far 14-3 with a 2.24 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits with one walk while striking out 11 over seven innings in a victory over New York on Friday. He’s been red hot since Day 1 and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t come in razor focused here as well. Note that he owns a tiny 0.98 WHIP and has a 160:44 K/BB over 161 frames of work.

Scherzer is so far 16-5 with a 2.11 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against the Fish on Friday. That’s back-to-back scoreless outings for Scherzer, who owns a minuscule 0.89 WHIP and a monstrous 234 strikeouts over 174.2 frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of its last 20 day road games as an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. Jon Lester and the Cubs are well worth the price of admission in this match-up in my opinion. The home side sends Francisco Liriano to the hill.

The pitchers: Lester is so far 13-5 with a 3.72 ERA. After a great start, Lester has come back down to Earth over the last month. But the veteran has to be feeling confident facing the tooth-less Tigers, as note that he is a superb 8-2 with a 3.08 ERA on the road.

Liriano is so far 3-8 with a 4.72 ERA. Liriano comes in off back-to-back poor outings and he continues to regress as the season wares on. Note that he’s been really bad at home with a 5.43 ERA also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is a terrible 2-8 in its last ten home night games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I like Lester to get back on track and easily out-duel Liriano. Play on Chicago.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. Everything points to a runs being at a premium tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side goes with Stephen Strasburg.

The pitchers: Eflin is so far 9-4 with a 3.70 ERA. He returns to the big league’s after a stint with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In his last start in the Majors on Aug. 16th he earned a win over the Mets despite allowing four runs over seven frames of work. Note though that he owns a sharp 7-3, 3.66 ERA in all “night” games.

Strasburg is so far 6-7 with a 3.90 ERA. Strasburg returns to the starting rotation refreshed after a month off due to a neck issue. He threw a 70 pitch simulated game late last week and he’s been cleared to go here.

The pick: Strasburg has the track record to get back on track and that’s what I expect to see after some time off to re-focus. Eflin has been sharp in this position all season as well and I expect the hard-throwing right-hander to carry that momentum over into this one. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. That said, I think that Charlie Morton and the defending champs will find a way to a victory here and I believe they’re well worth the price of admission in this spot. The home side sends Marco Gonzales to the hill.

The pitchers: Morton is so far 12-3 with a 2.78 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over five innings while striking out four in a no-decision to the A’s on Friday. Morton continues to defy the odds and I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt that he can’t keep the momentum rolling again here. Note that he owns a sharp 1.15 WHIP and has 175 strikeouts over 142.1 frames of work.

Gonzales is so far 12-8 with a 3.91 ERA. He most recently gave up four earned runs off eight hits with three walks over five innings in a loss to Oakland in his last start. Gonzales has been sharp overall this year, although he does own a rather pedestrian 4.49 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: There is room for concern looking at Gonzales. His last start was an indicator in my mind that he’s starting to run out of gas. Morton though is on track to put together the best campaign of his career. I look for Morton to continue his strong play with another focused effort in the Pacific Northwest. Play on the Astros.

The set-up: This series features a couple of match-ups of struggling starters and this is one of them. I think runs will be plentiful tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Robert Stephenson, while the home side goes with Freddy Peralta.

The pitchers: Stephenson is so far 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA. Stephenson has always looked sharp in Triple-A, but that success has so far not translated over into the big leagues. He was 5-6 with a 4.68 ERA last season, including just 1-3 with a 6.19 ERA on the road.

Peralta is so far 5-4 with a 4.48 ERA. Not surprisingly the rookie has been “hit or miss” this year, showing great strike-out potential, but also displaying shaky command with a lot of walks. Note that Peralta is just 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in all “day” games too.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of its last 17 day home games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I think that Patrick Corbin and the home side have the advantage, making this a price that I can live with paying. The visitors go with Felix Pena on the mound.

The pitchers: Pena is so far 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits with four walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Wednesday. Pena has looked solid of late, but I think he’s going to struggle in this difficult venue.

Corbin is so far 10-4 with a 3.18 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with no walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a win over the Rangers on Tuesday. It was his third-straight quality outing and to go along with his solid ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.03 WHIP and 11.0 K/9.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine night home games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. I like Corbin to find a way to get the job done at home, play on Arizona.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Sal Romano, while the home side goes with the steady Junior Guerra.

The pitchers: Romano is so far 7-10 with a 5.31 ERA. He most recently was shelled for six runs off seven hits with two walks over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Indians on Tuesday. Romano has been terrible overall this year, but especially on the road with the 2-5, 5.67 ERA.

Guerra is so far 6-8 with a 3.73 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing as well, giving up seven runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings in a setback to the Cubs. It was the first time in three starts he failed to record a quality outing. Guerra’s been solid overall, especially at home with a 3-2, 2.59 ERA record.

The pick: I believe Romano’s road struggles continue and that makes Guerra the correct call in this particular match-up. I can live paying this price as I expect a rout. Play on Milwaukee.

The set-up: I have zero faith in either starter and I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Chris Stratton, while the home side goes with Steven Matz.

The pitchers: Stratton is so far 8-7 with a 5.52 ERA. He returns from Triple-A out of necessity. For the most part he’s been terrible this season in the big leagues, especially at home with a 6.09 ERA.

Matz is so far 5-10 with a 4.60 ERA. He makes his second start back from injury at home, a place where he’s gone a poor 1-5 with a 4.78 ERA.

The pick: This match-up definitely does not have “pitchers duel” written all over it. It’s the exact opposite in fact. There’s no reason to have any faith in any either of these guys, and I don’t. I expect each to get the hook early and for this one to fly “over” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. However, i think we’ll see just enough offense to push this one “over” the number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Tanner Roark.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.13 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back shaky outings and while he has thrown better on the road than at home, I think the right-hander is running out of gas as the season comes down the stretch.

Roark is so far 8-12 with a 4.13 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Thursday. Roark has been solid over the last the last month, but I’ll caution that he’s still just 4-6 with a 5.20 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten road night games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I think Velasquez continues to slide and I believe Roark will take a step back. Play the “over.”

The set-up: This match-up has “slug-fest” written all over it. The Orioles go with Dylan Bundy, while the Jays hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio.

The pitchers: Bundy is so far 7-11 with a 4.99 ERA. He most recently was shelled for eight runs over five innings. He gave up eight hits, including two home runs. In four of his last six trips to the hill he’s allowed at least five earned runs while posting a terrible 7.71 ERA in that stretch.

Gaviglio is so far 2-6 with a 5.13 ERA. He most recently was rocked for five runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the lowly Royals on Tuesday. Over his last eight starts Gaviglio has posted an atrocious 7.07 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.

The pick: Bundy’s form suggests he’s in line for another “long night,” while Gaviglio has regressed as the season has worn on. Expect these trends to continue and for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. In fact I believe the talent-gap to be so large here that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors go with Homer Bailey, while the home side goes with Chase Anderson.

The pitchers: Bailey is so far 1-10 with a 6.33 ERA. He’s been terrible overall with a 1.60 WHIP and note that he’s been especially feeble in all “night” games with a 1-7, 6.91 ERA record to this point.

Anderson is so far 7-7 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a no-decision to the the White Sox on Sunday. Anderson has been solid overall this year, but he’ll be looking to “right the ship” after a couple of shaky performances. Note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is just 13-16 in its last 29 as a road dog in the -175 to -250 range, while Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -200 to -250 range. I’m banking on a blowout from start to finish. Lay the price.

The set-up: After back-to-back victories to open the pre-season and with the all important Week 3 dress rehearsal next weekend, I think the Ravens have a letdown here and get caught “looking ahead” in this meaningless Week 2 Monday Night contest. Indianapolis though will look to carry over its momentum from a 19-17 road victory in Seattle in its first game in front of the home town crowd.

The teams: Ravens’ rookie QB Lamer Jackson was 7 of 18 for 119 yards last week, while also rushing for 21. RB Gus Edwards had 58 yards on 12 carries. Baltimore looked sharp defensively against the Rams’ backups, but I think it’ll have a much more difficult time at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Colts’ backup QB Jacoby Brissett was 6 of 8 for 35 yards last weekend. Starter Andrew Luck returned and was 6 of 9 for 64 yards. Indianapolis also looked sharp defensively, holding the Seahawks to 87 rushing yards on 22 carries. Keep your eyes on Hassan Ridgeway, who had two sacks in the victory.

The pick: Baltimore may have won ten straight preseason games and covered in nine of those, but I think that run of excellence comes to an end here. Luck will see some time at home and Brissett continues to excel. I’m banking on the home side figuring it out and getting it done. Play on the Colts.

The set-up: This Sunday night contest features a couple of pitchers who have been inconsistent this season. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Jason Vargas, while the home side goes with Nick Pivetta.

The pitchers: Vargas is so far 2-8 with an 8.10 ERA. Last year the veteran was 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA for Kansas City. He’s failed to resemble that form whatsoever this season though and note that he’s been particularly terrible on the road with a 1-4, 8.91 ERA record in such instances.

Pivetta is so far 7-9 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Pivetta has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but note that he’s still just 4-6 with a 4.98 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total fly “over” the number in 12 of its last 20 road night games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. In fact I think the talent-gap is so large, that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors go with Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with Brett Kennedy.

The pitchers: Greinke is so far 12-8 with a 3.00 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with two walks over 6.1 innings in a loss to Texas on Monday. Previous to this sub-par effort he’d allow two runs or fewer in nine straight trips to the hill. No need to overreact. Note that Greinke is still a solid 7-5 with a 3.50 ERA on the road as well.

Kennedy is so far 0-2 with an 11.00 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out two over five frames in a setback to the Angels on Tuesday. Kennedy has now given up 11 runs off 20 hits over nine innings in the big leagues.

The pick: I like Greinke to come in focused on the task at hand and because of that, I’m laying this price. Play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors Justin Verlander and the defending champs. The home side sends Sean Manaea to the hill in this one.

The pitchers: Verlander is so far 11-8 with a 2.52 ERA. He most recently struck out 11 and walked none in an unfortunate loss to Colorado on Tuesday, giving up two runs over six innings in the end. Verlander has to be feeling confident here as he comes in with a 9-2, 1.74 ERA road record to this point.

Manaea is so far 11-8 with a 3.44 ERA. Manaea has been solid overall this season, but he’s scuffled a bit over his last two starts. Note that he’s 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA at home.

The pick: It’s hard to say too many negative things about Manaea, as for the most part he’s been very solid this year. But Verlander has been almost unbeatable on the road and I expect that trend of dominance to carry over here as well. Verlander’s run support is down from what it was last season, but I think the visitors take advantage and give their ace some production in this favorable match up. Play on Houston.

The set-up: This series features a couple of mismatches on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. The visitors go with Jaime Barria, while the home side goes with Yovani Gallardo.

The pitchers: Barria is so far 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA. he most recently gave up one run off six hits with one walk while striking out seven over five innings against San Diego on Tuesday. Over his last four starts Barria is now 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA.

Gallardo is so far 7-2 with a 6.39 ERA. He makes a spot start in place of Bartolo Colon. In his most recent loss he gave up four runs off six hits over 4.1 innings to Arizona on Tuesday. Note that he has a 5.86 ERA at home.

The pick: Barria comes in on top form and I think he’ll have more than enough to take care of the “on again, off again” Gallardo. Great price all things considered, play on LA.

The set-up: Ryan Borucki and the visiting Toronto Blue Jays face their ex-ace JA Happ and the Yankees in New York on Sunday afternoon and I’m expecting a competitive battle.

The pitchers: Borucki is so far 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Tuesday. Note that he’s been solid with a 2.25 ERA in all “day” games to this point.

Happ is so far 13-6 with a 3.86 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless against the Rays on Tuesday. He’s now 3-0 for the Yankees, giving up four runs over 19 frames of work.

The pick: I think it’s worthy to note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine road day games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. I expect this one to be decided late or even in extra frames. Grab the 1.5 runs for the Jays.

The set-up: Seattle comes in motivated here after its 19-17 home loss to the Colts. With a tough Week 3 matchup in Minnesota next week, the Seahawks will be looking to punch one into the win column here. LA won’t be going down without a fight, it comes in equally motivated after a 24-17 setback at Arizona.

The teams: There were many positives for the Seahawks in their Week 1 setback on both sides of the ball. Whether or not starting QB Russell Wilson sees any time today, Seattle’s secondary offensive unit looked decent, but not spectacular in Week 1. The defense looked sharp though, with rookie Shaquem Griffin making nine tackles.

LA got decent production from QB’s Cardale Jones and Geno Smith in the Week 1 loss to the Cardinals. Smith was 14 of 23 for 217 yards, one touchdown and one interception. With starting QB Philip Rivers expected to see little to no time this week again, LA’s offense looks poised to struggle again against the Hawks’ deep defensive unit.

The pick: With New Orleans coming to town in Week 3, I think LA gets caught looking ahead. Play on the Seahawks.

The set-up: Oakland comes in off 16-10 home win over Detroit in its opener and I think it goes through the motions today as it gets caught looking ahead to the all important Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” LA on the other hand comes in much more motivated after a humbling 33-7 road loss in Baltimore in Week 1.

The teams: Oakland’s offense didn’t look great last week, but it didn’t have to with the defense playing so well. Last year the Raiders were 23rd in the league in yards allowed and 20th in points allowed. Slowing down the Lions’ back-ups at home is one thing, but trying to contain a Rams team which led the league in scoring last year (29.9 PPG) is quite another obviously. The ground game was a positive on offense with 147 total yards.

It must be noted that starting QB Jared Goff didn’t play in the Week 1 setback for LA, so I’m reading absolutely nothing into the Rams’ inefficiency on the offensive side of the ball. Brandon Allen and Sean Mannion were decent, but not spectacular. The ground game looked decent with 121 yards. The defense looked horrible and clearly the unit will be looking for a better effort with a few more starters in the line-up this time around.

The pick: Connor Cook and EJ Manuel looked decent under center for the Raiders against Detroit, but in my opinion they look poised for a step back in this difficult venue. I’m expecting the Rams to come out much more focused on both sides of the ball in this one and their added motivation proves to the be the difference in my opinion. Lay the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Trevor Cahill.

The pitchers: Keuchel is so far 9-9 with a 3.43 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this year, but since the start of July he’s almost resembled the dominant figure on the mound he was about two years ago. Note though that Keuchel has been at his best on the road this season with the respectable 6-4, 3.00 ERA record to this point.

Cahill is so far 4-2 with a 3.39 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off seven hits with three strikeouts in a no-decision to the Angels on Sunday. It wasn’t a great start, but overall the veteran has been solid, posting a 1.10 WHIP over 79.2 frames of work. Note as well that Cahill is 3-0 with 0.99 ERA at home this season.

The pick: With these two studs facing off on Saturday afternoon, runs would definitely appear to be at a premium. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Two teams with big aspirations collide in Week 2 of the preseason at the Superdome on Friday night. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side.

The teams: Arizona comes in contented after last week’s 24-17 win in which it used a goal line stand as time expired to earn the dramatic victory. QB Josh Rosen was 6 of 13 for 41 yards. Chad Kanoff was 3 of 5 for 66 yards and a touchdown. Sam Bradford is expected to see a couple of snaps, but the Cards will be looking ahead to Week 3 here in my opinion after getting the Week 1 victory under their belts. 

The Saints come in off a win as well, pulling away for a 24-20 victory over Jacksonville. QB Tom Savage was 10 of 14 for 70 yards. In all three different players scored rushing touchdowns, including starting RB Mark Ingram. New Orleans’ defense looked sharp as well, as Jayrone Elliot led the way with 2.5 the teams six total sacks.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series. I like the Saints to take care of business at home. Lay the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the hill, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb.

The pitchers: Freeland is so far 10-7 with a 3.02 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with two walks over seven innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Saturday. Note that he’s 3-5 with a 4.01 ERA on the road.

Newcomb is so far 10-5 with a 3.40 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Tuesday. Newcomb comes in on top form, giving up just three runs and ten hits over his last three starts combined (striking out 19 in the process).

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is just 2-7 in its last nine as a road dog in the +125 to +200 range. I’m banking on Newcomb getting the better of Freeland in friendly confines. Lay the price.

The set-up: Miami opens its NFL preseason with two straight on the road. With the important Week 3 match-up in their first game at home in Week 3, I do expect the Dolphins to simply go through the motions tonight as they get caught looking ahead.

The teams: Miami threw everything it had at Tampa Bay in Week 1 and still came up short in the 26-24 setback. David Fales and Brock Osweiler combined to go 18 of 32 for 198 yards, no TD’s or INT’s. Ryan Tannehill went 4 of 6 for 32 yards.

The Panthers beat the Bills 28-23 on the road last week and I think they carry that momentum and confidence over into their home opener. Backup QB Garrett Gilbert was 7 of 12 for 93 yards a TD, while Taylor Heinicke was 7 of 9 for 121 yards. Cam Newton looked good in his limited time as well, going 6 of 9 for 84 yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Miami is now 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the short points.

The set-up: Both teams comes in at 0-1 SU/ATS after Week 1. The Falcons will be particularly eager to atone after their 17-0 setback at the Jets last weekend, while the Chiefs fell 17-10 at Houston.

The teams: KC QB Patrick Mahomes was five of seven for 33 yards in last week’s loss. The Chiefs would use four QB’s last week and Chad Henne was the only one of them who was able to post a TD. Henne would hit Demarcus Robinson for the major score.

The Falcons’ backups looked poor last week, but starters on both sides of the line are expected to see more time in Week 2 at home. Matt Schaub was a bright spot in the setback by going 9 of 9.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. Expect a much better effort in Week 2 from The Dirty Birds in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points.

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors go with Noah Syndergaard on the hill, while the home side goes with Aaron Nola.

The pitchers: Syndergaard is so far 8-2 with a 3.22 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Reds on Monday. In his second start since returning from the DL he earned the victory and to go along with his respectable ERA he also owns a sharp 1.22 WHIP and 93 strikeouts over 88 frames of work.

Nola is so far 13-3 with a 2.28 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back strong outings. Nola is putting together the finest campaign of his career and he’s been unbeatable at home so far by going 8-0 with a 2.07 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 home games when the line is set between +150 and -150. This number is just a little high, play the “under.”