The set-up: Chicago had Thursday off and it’s won seven of ten. The Cubs come in with considerable confidence after sweeping the Fish on the road. So far Kyle Hendricks has struggled for Chicago, but I think the veteran will bounce back here in this favorable matchup. The Diamondbacks have also been rolling, but after a three-game sweep in Atlanta, including a 4-1 win on Thursday afternoon, I think the visitors take a step back here with Merrill Kelly on the hill.

The pitchers: Hendricks (0-3, 5.40 ERA) has completed only five innings once in three starts this year. He is however 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA in four career starts vs. the D-Backs, allowing 17 hits over 25 1/3’s frames opposed, striking out 25 and walking six.

Kelly (1-1, 3.79) has been decent, striking out 17 and walking three over 19 innings so far this year. Clearly he faces a stiff test in this difficult road venue this afternoon though.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is still only 3-6 (-2.3 units) this year vs. right-handed starters, while Chicago is 69-48 the last two years after allowing two runs or less in its previous contest (shut out the Marlins twice in its series sweep.) Lay the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: A great price for a desperate home team. It’s “do or die” for the disappointing Sharks, who have squandered home ice advantage and likely this series. However, I do indeed believe that San Jose will dig deep here and find a way to send this one back to Las Vegas for another game. 

The pick: Also note that Vegas is just 1-5 in its last six on the road still. San Jose was knocked out of the playoffs by the Knights last year and I expect it to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes tonight to get back into this series. No need to over think this one. Great value on the hungry Sharks.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: San Antonio shocked the Nuggets in Game 1 with an outright win and Denver had its hands full in Game 2 as well. But Nikola Jokic and company finally got it figured out in the second half of Game 2 to overcome a 19 point deficit to beat San Antonio and I believe they’ll carry that momentum over here. Denver was one of the best on the defensive end of the floor all year and that showed by holding the Spurs to just 103 points average over the first two games. San Antonio also looked good by holding the Nuggets to an average 96 points, but they’d allow 114 last time out and I think they’ll once again have problems containing this now confident visiting side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is 6-1 in its last seven after a home victory, while SA is just 9-13 ATS this season after playing two straight on the road. Grab the points and expect a war until the final horn.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: I think the Flames are going to bounce back here with a solid win on the road and tie this series up at two. Flames’ goaltender Mike Smith stopped 50 of 56 shots in the Game 3 setback. Calgary only mustered 29 of its own, but Smith is a difference maker here in my opinion. The veteran has a 2.87 GAA through the first three games, while Avs’ net minder Philipp Grubauer has a 2.24 GAA over his last two games. 

The pick: Calgary dominated the Pacific and its strength was its play on the road. After its big offensive outburst in Game 3, I expect the Avs’ to come back down to Earth here. Additionally note that Calgary is 16-7 (+8.9 units) this season after allowing four goals or more, while Colorado is just 11-20 (-12.2 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game. 

Calgary Flames

10* play

The set-up: Utah didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 1, but I think it’ll “come to play” in Game 2 as it looks to earn a coveted split in Houston. Utah played well offensively and defensively during the regular season, but it shot only 39 percent from the field in Game 1. The Jazz now play with “triple revenge” here as well after losing three straight to the Rockets. After a 34 point loss and facing an 0-2 hole, it’s “now or never” for Donovan Mitchell and company.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Houston just 9-10 ATS this season off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end.

Utah Jazz

10* play

The set-up: After Joc Pederson’s walk-off two-run home run in the ninth inning gave the Dodgers’ a 4-3 victory last night, I believe that the home side will carr that momentum over here. 

The pitchers: The home side goes with Kenta Maeda (2-1, 4.76 ERA), who has looked decent overall, but who comes in off a “dud” vs. the Cards on Wednesday, allowing five runs over six innings. 

The visitors turn to Tyler Mahle (0-0, 0.82) who has given up just one run over his first 11 innings of work this season. Mahle had success vs. the Dodgers last year, but overall he was 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA on the road last year.

The pick: Note that the Reds are still 0-5 on the road this year and just 5-9 vs. right-handed starters. Note as well that the Dodgers are 7-2 vs. teams with losing records this season. Lay the price with confidence.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: No need to over think this one. Denver was shocked in Game 1 by the Spurs aggressive defensive play, but after three straight victories (including tw to end the regular season), I think the Spurs come out flat here in Game 2. The Nuggets on the other hand will have to push the pace from start to finish here. Denver was the best team in the league over the first half, but a somewhat lacklustre second, combined with the Game 1 loss has the team in “panic” mode at this point in my opinion. There’s no way the Nuggets can go to San Antonio down 0-2 and expect to win this series.

The pick: Note that the Spurs are only 11-12 ATS as a road underdog this season and just 5-11 ATS after a win by six points or less, while Denver is still 25-17 ATS at home overall and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. Lay the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: The Reds come to town off a 9-5 loss to the Cardinals in Mexico and I think they’ll have a difficult time in Chavez Ravine tonight as well. LA won’t be taking anything for branded here as its 7-1 win over the Brewers yesterday snapped a six-game slide. 

The pitchers: The Reds go with Luis Castillo (1-1, 0.92 ERA) who hasn’t given up a run in 12 innings, but who clearly faces a stiff task tonight.

The home side counters with ace Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 0.00), who makes his first start of the year.

The pick: Note that LA has hit at least one home run in 29 consecutive home games. I like the Dodgers to build off yesterday’s win and for Kershaw to at the very least, match Castillo inning for inning tonight. I have no problem laying this price. 

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: It’s Game 3 of the Best of 7 series and while the first two games have fallen “under” the number, I believe that the switch in venue and the overall situation will lead to a higher-scoring affair in Game 3. Boston comes in averaging 3.80 goals over its last ten games. The Bruins though have allowed 3.40 goals over that same stretch. Toronto will be wary about having a letdown here, as it’s 0-7 in its last seven off a win. The Leafs though are 23-17 at home this season, averaging 3.56 goals and allowing 3.00 goals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 24 after a win by two goals or more, while Toronto has seen the total go over in 18 of 29 vs. the divisional opponents already. This number is low, play the “over.”

Maple Leafs/Bruins OVER

10* play

The set-up: San Jose took Game 1, but the Knights bounced back and earned the coveted “split” at the Shark Tank in Game 2. Now back home, few teams enjoy a bigger “home ice advantage” than the Golden Knights and I look for them to indeed take advantage here. San Jose went just 3-9 down the stretch of the regular season and it’s now just 4-10 in its last 14. Sharks’ goalie Martin Jones was 14-12 with a 3.14 GAA on the road. Overall San Jose was 21-20 on the road this season, averaging 3.44 goals and allowing 3.44 in those contests. Knights’ net minder Marc Andre Fleury is 18-15 with a 2.40 GAA at home. Overall Vegas was 24-17 at home, averaging 3.20 goals and allowing 2.41 in those contests. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vegas is 26-8 in its last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, while the Sharks are only 2-5 in their last seven in Las Vegas. Lay the reasonable price.

VEGAS Golden Knights

10* play

The set-up: The Astros come in off a 3-1 win over Seattle, as the Mariners hot start has start to quickly fade. Houston on the other hand has won eight straight and I believe it’ll find a way to get the job done in the series finale as well. 

The pitchers: Houston sends Gerrit Cole (0-2, 3.32 ERA) to the hill and he most recently allowed three runs off four hits with three walks while striking out six over seven innings vs. New York on Tuesday. Over 19 innings of work Cole now has 25 K’s.

The home side counters with Marco Gonzalez (4-0, 3.16) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a win over the toothless Royals on Tuesday. Gonzalez has been sharp so far, but all good things must come to an end. Difficult match-up here and I look for Gonzalez to take a step back.

The pick: Houston slugger Jose Altuve has homered in five straight games. Look for the hot-hitting Astros to continue to build momentum with another solid victory today.

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: The Thunder ended the regular season on a five-game win streak. Their reward now is a matchup vs. a Blazers side which defeated it four times this year. Overall the Thunder average 114.5 PPG, while allowing 111.1 (OKC allowed 113.2 over its final five games of the season.) Portland is down its center, but it still closed with three straight wins. Overall the Blazers average 114.7 PPG, while allowing 110.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 when playing with three or more days rest, while Portland is 24-17 ATS at home this season and 7-1 ATS in its last eight after scoring 130 points or more. Portland is tough at home and I look for its depth to prove to be too much for the Thunder to handle down the stretch. Beyond its two superstars, OKC lacks punch. I’m playing the home side on the money line.

Portland Trail Blazers (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the undermanned Pacers. Boston won three of the four regular season meetings. Indiana won just four of its final 13 regular season games, a slide which cost it home floor advantage in the first round. And now the Celtics will look to take advantage themselves. Indiana averages 108 PPG and it allows 104.7. Boston won six of its final eight games. The Celtics average 112.4 PPG, while allowing 108. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Look for Boston’s depth and overall superior talent, combined with the home floor advantage to prove to be too much for the Pacers in Game 1. Lay the points.

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: These were two of the better defensive clubs in the league, but I expect this one to sneak “over” the number once it’s all said and done. The Spurs come in on top form having won 15 of their final 20 games. The Nuggets on the other hand dropped four of their final seven down the stretch. These teams are evenly matched and they go on to split their season series. 

The pick: While their four regular season games all went “under” the number, the numbers this time around suggest a higher-scoring shootout finally. As note that the Spurs have seen the total go “over” in 25 of 41 on the road already this season and in seven of their last ten in the first round of the playoffs, while Denver has seen the total soar “over” in seven of its last nine home games when the total in the contest is set between 209.5 and 211.5. This number is low, play the “over.”

Spurs/Nuggets OVER

10* play

The set-up: Arizona enters having lost three straight after last night’s 2-1 loss to the Friars, but I think this line could easily be a lot larger because of what I feel to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what this price is trying to lead us to believe.

The pitchers: The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Matt Strahm (0-2, 7.04 ERA), who gave up five runs off eight hits over 2 2/3-s innings in a loss to Arizona on April 1st. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in seven career appearances vs. the Diamondbacks. 

The home side goes with Merrill Kelly (1-1, 2.57) who gave up five hits and three runs over six innings in a win over the Padres on April 1st. Kelly comes in off a hard-luck 1-0 loss to Boston, going eight innings and allowing four hits and one run while striking out nine and walking none. 

The pick: All things considered, I believe this line could/should easily be much larger. Play on the desperate home side. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

10* play

The set-up: This is a difficult matchup for Carolina. It always has been. After going 0-4 in the regular season vs. the defending champs, the Hurricanes whimpered to a 4-2 loss in Game 1 as well. Carolina is just 8-21 in its last 29 vs. the Capitals, including only 2-9 in its last 11 in the Nation’s capital. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 0-4 in its last four as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range, while Washington is 5-1 in its last six vs. teams with winning records. This line could/should easily be much larger in my professional opinion.

Washington Capitals

10* play

The set-up: After yesterday’s upset loss (called because of rain after seven innings), I look for the injured but still dangerous home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Chicago broke a five-game slide with yesterday’s win, but the Yankees are now out to snap a four-game losing streak of their own. 

The pitchers: The home side goes with veteran CC Sabathia (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who went 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA in 29 starts las year. Sabathia enters with a 19-7, 3.75 ERA lifetime record vs. Chicago.

The visitors counter with Ivan Nova (0-1, 7.71) who was rocked for seven runs off seven hits over 2 1/3’s innings in a 12-5 loss to the Mariners on Sunday. 

The pick: I like Sabathia to get the job done in his season debut vs. the volatile Nova. Lay the price.

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: Both teams have struggled of late. I think that home field will play a significant role in this one. This is the first time these teams have met since their seven-game NLCS last fall, a series which the Dodgers also won. 

The pitchers: The visitors hand the ball to Corbin Burnes (0-1, 9.90 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up seven runs off six hits, including three home runs and three walks over five innings while striking out six in a 14-8 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. 

The home side counters with Julio Urias (0-0, 3.12) gave up three runs off four hits over 3.2 innings in a win over the Rockies on Sunday, receiving a no-decision for his effort. 

The pick: I think Urias out duels his volatile counterpart and I like the Dodgers to get back on track in this favorable situation. Lay it.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: The Jets fell apart late in Game 1 and let the Blues steal their thunder, but I look for the home side to easily bounce back in Game 2. The main objective of any visiting team to open a playoff series is to simply earn a “split” of the first two games, as that ensure that it takes back the home ice advantage. With that goal accomplished, I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done here. Additionally, considering the experience and how well the Jets actually play at home, there’s no question that we’re getting a great price here also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but despite earning the win in Game 1, the Blues are still only 4-11 the last 15 in this series. The Jets on the other hand are 7-3 in their last ten when playing on one days rest. Look for the desperate and revenge minded home side to lay everything on the ice, and lay the reasonable price.

Winnipeg Jets

10* play

The set-up: The Angels have won six straight, but I think they’ll stumble in the opener of this difficult road trip and in the National League setting. LA also leaves the coast without slugger Mike Trout in the line-up, who was recently injured. The under-achieving and hungry Cubs will look to take advantage. Also note that it’s unseasonably cold in Chicago right now, which will clearly effect the team from California.

The pitchers: The Angels hand the ball to Tyler Skaggs (1-1, 2.45 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits over 6.1 innings in a win over the Rangers on Saturday. 

The home side counters with Cole Hamels (1-0, 5.73) who gave up two runs off six hits over six innings while striking out five in a 14-8 win over the Brewers on Saturday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 1-5 (-4.2 units) on the road this year, while Chicago is 26-17 the L2 years in all interleague contests. I’m laying the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: The Capitals took all four regular season meetings with the Hurricanes. The Hurricanes looked great over the second game, going 31-12-2 since the New Year, but I think they’ll stumble in Game 1 in this difficult road venue. The defending champs also played very well over the second half and now that the post-season is here, there’s no reason not to think that the defending champs won’t be able to make another deep run: “It’s going to be different games than the regular year,” star Capitals players Alexander Ovechkin commented yesterday. “But, it’s a good thing we have experience. What we did last year, we know exactly how we have to play and hopefully we’ll play like that again.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 4-1 in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while Carolina is 1-4 in its last five a road dog and only 17-38 in its last 55 when playing on three or more days rest. I think this is a very fair price.

Washington Capitals

10* play

The set-up: The Cubs have lost eight of 11 to open the year, but they have a chance to win their first series of the season with a victory today. Chicago won the series opener 10-0, before falling 5-2 on Wednesday. While he struggled in his first start, I think that Cubs’ starter Jose Quintana will settle down here and deliver the goods.

The pitchers: The Pirates hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who struck out eight over seven scoreless vs. the light-hitting Reds earlier.

Quintana (0-1, 10.29) comes off an outing to forget in which he allowed eight runs over three innings to the Brewers. Quintana has enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Bucs though, having gone 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in five career starts vs. them.

The pick: Keep your eyes on Cubs’ slugger Jason Heyward, who has a .371 average after three hits yesterday, including a solo home run. Good price on the hungry home side here. Lay it.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: Despite Mike Trout leaving with a groin injury in last night’s win, I think this one sets up nicely for the home side and I look for it to find a way to get the job done on Wednesday as well.

The pitchers: The Brewers turn to Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 6.00 ERA), who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks over four innings while striking out eight. 

The home side counters with Felix Pena (0-1, 5.40) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out seven over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Rangers on Friday. 

The pick: For arguments sakes, lets call these starters a “wash.” Take it for what you will though, but Milwaukee is just 2-7 in its last nine interleague road games following a loss, while LA is already 4-1 at home this season. I’m banking on the good times continuing to roll for the surging Angels.

LA Angels

10* play

The set-up: I think these two hungry Western Conference foes push the pace from start to finish in this and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Overall the Stars average 2.5 goals and allow 2.4, while Nashville averages 2.9 goals and it concedes 2.6. Ben Bishop is in net for the Stars and the Predators go with Pekka Rinne. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Dallas has seen the total go to “over” the number in three of four this year on the road when the total is five or less, while Nashville has seen the total fly “over” in six of its last eight after a three-game unbeaten streak. I expect these two normally defensive minded clubs to open things up in Game 1.

Predators/Stars OVER

The set-up: Miami’s been eliminated from playoff contention, but I still think that Dwayne Wade and company come to play tonight. The Heat are 6-5 in the second game of back-to-back situations this year, putting up an average of 110.1 PPG and allowing 105.7 in those contests. The Nets have nothing to play for here, as they’ve already punched their ticket to the postseason. Brooklyn is unable to change its position with a win or loss today. Expect the home side to rest starters.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Brooklyn is just 19-21 ATS at home. I think Miami’s back-ups come in hungry and angry as they look to take out their frustrations on a Nets team that will simply be going through the motions as it looks to now avoid any serious injuries before the playoffs. Grab the points.

Miami Heat

10* play

The set-up: I like the Pens to pull off the slight upset in Game 1. The Islanders weren’t supposed to be this good after trading Jon Tavares to the Leafs, but a hot start and a good run at home and on the road has New York back in the playoffs, but the veteran experience and depth that Sidney Crosby and company bring to the table will prove to be the difference in my opinion (in Game 1 anyways!) Overall the Pens went 21-20 on the road, averaging 3.32 goals and allowing 2.76. The Isles were 24-17 at home, averaging 2.80 goals and allowing 2.27 in those contests. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but New York is just 1-5 in its last six when playing on three or more days rest, while Pittsburgh is 22-7 in its last 29 in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play the visitors.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10* play

The set-up: The Grizzlies are going to try and play spoiler here as the Pistons playoff hopes are still up in the air. The Grizz come in off a two-point loss to the Mavs, but Memphis has been competitive down the stretch and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here. Detroit comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 6-2 ATS this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Detroit is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a home loss by ten points or more. Look for Memphis to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

Memphis Grizzlies

10* play

The set-up: The Indians’ Corey Kluber has uncharacteristically struggled to open the season, but I think he’ll bounce back here in this favorable situation. Tigers’ veteran Jordan Zimmermann has looked sharp early, but I think he’ll have difficulty with this surging Indians side.

The pitchers: Kluber (0-2, 5.23 ERA) will be trying to slow down a Tigers team which has won fig straight. Kluber has to be feeling confident here as he’s 11-7 with a 3.55 ERA in 25 career appearances vs. Detroit. Last year he won all three starts, allowing only three runs over 23 1/3’s innings to go along with 26 K’s. 

Zimmermann (0-0, 0.66) has allowed only one run over 13 2/3’s innings of work, but the Tigers have given him no support thus far. 

The pick: Note though that Zimmermann has been destroyed by the Tribe throughout his career, going 0-5 with a ballooned 11.08 ERA. I think Kluber settles down and I look for Zimmermann to come back down to Earth. Lay the price.

Clveland Indians

10* play

The set-up: Two of the best defensive teams in the nation go head to head here and I think that points will not surprisingly be at a premium in this one. Texas Tech has advanced by beating UNT 72-57, and then by posting impressive defensive performances over Buffalo, Michigan and high-flying Gonzaga. The Red Raiders then capped off their journey with the 61-51 win over Michigan State in the Final Four. Virginia was knocked out of the first round last year, but this season it continues to ride it’s No. 1 ranked defense. Virginia has navigated some close calls as well to get here, including over Gardner-Webb, Oklahoma, Oregon, Purdue and the thriller over Auburn with no time left on the clock. 

The pick: Take it for what you all as well, but Texas Tech has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of ten neutral four games already this year and in four of its last five when playing with one or less days rest, while Virginia has seen the total go “under” in 11 of 17 after a non-conference game and in not surprisingly 11 of its last 17 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest.

UVA/TTU UNDER

10* play

The set-up: The Cards come in off a 4-1 home win over the Padres, while the Dodgers rolled to an impressive 12-6 win at Colorado. While Hyun-Jin Ryu has been excellent to start the year, his counterpart Miles Mikolas has been a train wreck. 

The pitchers: The Dodgers go with Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-0, 2.08 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with five strikeouts and no walks over seven innings in a win over the Giants on Tuesday. Over his first two starts he has 13 punch outs. 

The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (0-1, 7.20) who has uncharacteristically struggled to open the season. Over two starts he’s given up eight runs off 12 hits. Last year Mikolas was 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA, so clearly he’s struggling with command issues or something else right now.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in three of four vs. right-handed starters this year, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last nine home games after holding its previous opponent to one or less runs in a victory. This number is low.

Dodgers/Cards OVER

10* play

The set-up: Denver is gunning for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference still and I think it has a legitimate shot at completing a home and home sweep of the Blazers here. With their 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, Denver has wrapped up its first division title since 2010. The Nuggets though still have a shot at taking the No. 1 spot in the entire Western Conference, so I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here. The Blazers have gone 4-2 since losing big man Jusuf Nurkic and they continue to play without the services of star CJ McCollum as well. 

The pick: I’ll point out as well that the Blazers are now just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five vs. above .500 teams, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the +0.5 to +4.5 points range. Expect the visitors to take this one right down to the wire, if not scoring the outright upset in the process. Grab the points.

Denver Nuggets

10* play

The set-up: The Astros look for the sweep of the visiting A’s here. I believe that Brad Peacock has the advantage over his counterpart Mike Fiers on the hill this afternoon.

The pitchers: Peacock (1-0, 1.35 ERA) gave up one run with five K’s over seven innings in a 2-1 win over the Rangers in his first start. 

Fiers (2-1, 3.00 ERA), who has not given up a run over his last two starts, but who is 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston. 

The pick: Oakland’s bats have gone cold, which doesn’t bode well in this difficult road venue vs. the red hot Peacock. I look for Fiers to take a step back here finally. Lay the price with confidence. 

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: This one has the feel of whichever of these defensive minded clubs has its hands on the ball last is going to win this game. In a contest which I do indeed see coming “down to the wire,” I’m going to recommend grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were knocked out of the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament game to WVU, but since then Texas Tech has been unstoppable and after beating No. 1 Gonzaga, I believe they carry that momentum over here. MSU survived Duke, but the Spartans experience their toughest matchup to date. Michigan State has struggled with offensive consistency this season, which doesn’t bode well facing the Red Raiders right now.

The pick: Clearly these teams are evenly matched. I’ll point out though that Texas Tech is already 3-1 ATS this year as a neutral court underdog or pick and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick and only 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10* play

The set-up: Chicago is coming off a 6-1 beatdown at home over the Stars and it plays with motivation here as well as it looks to somewhat spoil the Predators parade. Nashville is in control of its own destiny right now as it heads into the final game of the year. If the Predators win this game, then they win the Central Division. But if the Hawks can pull off the upset, then the Predators have to sweat out the Jets game going on tonight as well. If Nashville loses and Winnipeg wins, then the Jets will take the division. It’s a big game for the home side and I don’t expect it to sit back on its heels. With both teams pushing the pace, I look for this total to blast past the posted number sooner, rather than later. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go over in 21 of 33 vs. teams with winning records this year, while Nashville has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five vs. teams with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the “over.”

Blackhawks/Predators OVER

10* play

The set-up: The White Sox as a slight dog at home vs. the overachieving Mariners? I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the under-rated underdog. Chicago is getting big time production from slugger Yoan Moncada, who is hitting .458 with two home runs and then RBIs. Chicago won 10-8 in yesterday’s series opener and Moncada was 2 for 4 with four RBI’s. While the Mariners have 21 home runs through nine games, they also have 16 errors. 

The pitchers: Seattle turns to Mike Leake (1-0, 3.00 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks over six innings in a win over the Red Sox on Saturday. Last year he was 10-10 with a 4.36 ERA. 

Chicago counters with Lucas Giolito (1-0, 2.70) who gave up two runs off three hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Royals on Sunday. 

The pick: I like Giolito to carry over his momentum and I like the White Sox to do the same after last night’s win. 

Chicago White Sox

10* play

The set-up: This is the last game of the year for the Ducks. They’re 34-37-10 overall this season, but 6-3-1 in their last ten and they currently ride a two game win streak. Anaheim has been a “different” team at home this season, going 18-14-8 in front of the home town crowd. The Kings are 30-41-9 on the season and 5-4-1 in their last ten. Overall they’re 14-20-6 on the road. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Kings are a poor 5-12 in their last 17 as a road underdog in the +110 to +150 range, while the Ducks are 43-13 in their last 56 as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. I expect the home side to send the fans home happy in the final game of a disappointing season. Lay the price.

Anaheim Ducks

10* play

The set-up: The Astros return to Houston for their first home series of the season. So far they’ve dropped five of six games. Oakland has been playing great, but I think it’ll have its hands full here vs. this hungry and determined home side.

The pitchers: The Astros turn to Collin McHugh (0-1, 3.60 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits with nine K’s over five frames in an unfortunate setback to the Rays. Overall he’s 8-1 with a 2.84 ERA over 17 appearances vs. the A’s. 

The visitors counter with Frankie Montas (1-0, 1.50) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a 2-1 win over the Angels in his season debut. Note though that over four career starts Montas is 1-1 with a ballooned 7.74 ERA vs. the Astros. 

The pick: I like McHugh at home and all things considered, I believe this line could/should easily be much larger. Lay the price.

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: The Celtics are on the road to face the Pacers and I’m expecting a complete war until the end. Boston comes in on top form after a home and home sweep of the Heat, most recently a 112-102 victory in Miami on Wednesday. The Pacers also come in off back-to-back wins, most recently a 108-89 victory at Detroit on Wednesday. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 108, while Indiana averages 108 PPG, while allowing only 104.1. 

The pick: Before beating the Pistons (twice, it was also a home and home set. Also note that Blake Griffin didn’t play for either), the Pacers had lost seven of their previous eight games. I like surging Boston to find a way to get the job done here as it looks for a leg-up in the playoff positioning. 

Boston Celtics

10* play

The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Knights have a 2-1 lead in the season series, however it was the Coyotes which scored the 5-2 road win on February 12th in the most recent match-up. Arizona though comes in off a deflating 3-1 home loss to LA on Tuesday and I think it’s ripe for the picking here as well. The Knights on the other hand are off a 3-1 home win over the Oilers on Monday. Arizona is now four games behind the Avalanche with two games to play. Las Vegas plays with the added incentive of being able to end the Coyotes campaign here and now. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas is 10-2 in its last 12 when playing on two days rest, while Arizona is just 2-7 in its last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay it with confidence.

Vegas Golden Knights

10* play

The set-up: Cleveland is off a 122-113 loss at Phoenix on Monday, while Sacramento is off a 130-105 home loss to Houston on Tuesday. The Cavs play with revenge here after the Kings scored the 129-110 road win back on December 7th. Cleveland has little to play for at this point obviously, but after six straight losses, I expect it to put up a fight here vs. the floundering Kings, who come in clearly out of gas having lost three of their last four. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically for the visitors. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Cavaliers are already 9-3 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and 14-5 ATS after failing to cover in three of their last four vs. the spread, while Sacramento is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.

Cleveland Cavaliers

10* play

The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in the Championship Game of the NIT. The Bison come in off an impressive 71-64 win over high-flying Wichita State, while The Longhorns smashed No. 1 seed TCU 58-44. These two schools got to this point behind some extremely aggressive defensive play and I don’t expect anything to change here. Note that Lipscomb held the Shockers to just 35 percent shooting, while Texas held TCU to only 28 percent from the floor. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Lipscomb has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of ten already this season after three or more SU wins, while Texas has seen the total dip “under” in 16 of 24 as a favorite this year. This number is high, play the “under.”

Texas/Lipscomb UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Two teams not known for their offensive fire-power go head to head on Thursday afternoon. A couple of confirmed “gas cans” also square off on the mound though. I believe that Jake Junis and Spencer Turnbull get chased early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pitchers: The Royals’ Junis (1-0, 4.76 ERA) earned a win despite not being at his best vs. the White Sox on Saturday, allowing three runs off six hits over five innings of work. Junis is in his third year and he finished 9-12 with a 4.37 ERA last season.

The Tigers’ Turnbull (0-1, 5.40) gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Jays on Saturday. Last year he was 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA for the Tigers, including 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go over in four of five vs. the division already this season, while Detroit has seen the total fly over in 16 of its last 25 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Royals/Tigers OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Rockets laid the hammer down on the Kings last night and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. LA is on a 13-2 run in its last 15, but I think it’ll still have its hands full with this surging visiting side. Houston needs to keep the foot on the gas here as it battles Portland for third seed in the Western Conference. LA has beaten Cleveland and Memphis, but the Rockets are an entirely different “animal” obviously.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, while LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the +0.5 to +3.5 range. Look for James Harden and company to keep it rolling on Wednesday night.

10* play

The set-up: These teams are going through the motions today as they each play out their respective seasons. While Ottawa is .500 at home, it’s only 10-27-2 on the road. New York is in rebuilding mode as well and it’s missing the playoffs for a second straight year. So far these teams have split a pair of games, so the only thing up for grabs would be the winner of the season series. Ottawa prevailed 3-0 in the most recent and I believe we’re going to see an identical final combined score here as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Rangers have seen the total go “under” in seven of their last nine home games in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they were shut out in. No fireworks here, as everything points to the under as the correct call.

Rangers/Senators UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Baltimore won two of three in New York to open the season and it’s so far taken the first two games of this series. The Jays play with desperation here and I also think they have the advantage on the mound. When you add it all up, it makes this a price which I have no issues at all in laying. 

The pitchers: Baltimore turns to Nate Karns (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who has worked as a starter for most of his five years in the big leagues, but who was originally slated to start out of the bullpen this season. Karns is in the rotation out of necessity. He looked decent vs. the Yanks on opening day, allowing one hit and no run on 33 pitches. 

The Jays counter with Matt Shoemaker (1-0, 0.00) who was impressive in his first start, going seven scoreless for a win over the Tigers. In four career starts vs. the Orioles he’s 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA. 

The pick: While the Jays have yet to impress at the plate in this series, I think Shoemaker will easily out duel his still untested counterpart. Lay the price.

Toronto Blue Jays

10* play

The set-up: Two of the best in the West go head-to-head on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I believe that points are going to be plentiful. Denver will be playing with a sense of desperation here as it’s lost three of its last five and it now sits a game behind the Warriors for top spot in the Conference. Overall the Nuggets average 110.9 PPG, while allowing 106.7. The Warriors average 117.7 PPG and they concede 111.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Denver has seen the total go “over” the number in in five of seven this season when playing with double revenge after two straight losses vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total go “over” in five of seven this season off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. This number is low, play the “over.”

Warriors/Nuggets OVER

10* play

The set-up: It’s the semi finals of the NIT and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Texas advanced by beating South Dakota State, Xavier and Colorado, while TCU got the better of Houston State, Nebraska and Creighton. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs are of course very familiar with each other. Note that TCU won both meetings in Big 12 action this year. Both games were low-scoring battles, with TCU winning the first meeting 65-61, followed by a 69-56 score in the second. Everything points to another low-scoring affair here in my opinion. Texas comes in off a stellar defensive performance over Colorado, winning 68-55 and holding the Buffs to just 32.7 percent shooting. TCU crushed Creighton 71-58, holding it to 39.2 percent from the floor. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go “under” the number in three of four neutral court games it’s played in already this year, while TCU has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 following a home victory. This number is high, play the “under.”

Texas/TCU UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Two competent starters square off here, but I’m expecting a much more competitive game today after the Rays’ 7-1 victory on Monday. That was Tampa’s fourth straight win. 

The pitchers: The home side turns to Blake Snell (0-1, 7.50 ERA), who was rocked for six hits, including three homers over six innings in a 5-1 loss to the Astros in his 2019 opener. 

Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland (1-0, 1.29), who looked good in his first start after putting together a very solid 2018 as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Colorado has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five on the road, while Tampa’s seen the total go over in seven of its last nine home games after holding its previous opponent to one or less runs in a victory. This number is low, play the “over.”

Rockies/Rays OVER

10* play

The set-up: Boston has struggled with consistency to open the year, but with what I feel to be the superior starter on the mound tonight, I look for the hard-hitting Red Sox to get the job done in this favorable matchup (Boston won’t be lacking for motivation after losing three of four in Seattle, despite scoring 24 runs.) 

The pitchers: The Red Sox go with David Price, who was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA in the regular season in 2018. Note that he’s 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA in ten career starts vs. Oakland.

The home side counters with Aaron Brooks, who made the No. 5 spot in the rotation, mainly because of an injury to starter Sean Manaea to open the year. Note that Brooks threw just three times in the big leagues last year and he hasn’t thrown a meaningful pitching since 2015. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is still 104-71 (+26.9 units) the last two years on the road, while Oakland is just 15-25 (-9.9 units) in its last 40 when playing with a day off. I’m banking on Price getting the better of his counterpart and for the Red Sox’ offense to continue to shine. Great price on Price.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: The Hornets’ playoff hopes are fading fast after back-to-back losses, including to the Warriors just last night. I think that Kemba Walker and company come in predictably “gassed” here in the second game of the back-to-back. Utah will look to keep its sharp play vs. “lesser” competition going strong, as it comes in having won four straight over the Wizards, Lakers, Suns and Bulls. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for a lower-scoring affair.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Charlotte has seen the total go “under” the number in six of eight already this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite, while Utah has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 when playing with two days rest. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

Hornets/Jazz UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Off a satisfying 5-2 home win over the Flyers, I think the Hurricanes stumble in this difficult road venue. The Penguins on the other hand will be eager to get back on track after a 3-1 home loss to Nashville. Carolina comes in on no rest and while it’s been sharp in those situations this season, I think it finally catches up to it here. Overall the Hurricanes average 2.84 goals and allow 2.84 as well when on the road this season. Pittsburgh hasn’t clinched a playoff spot either, but it’ll close to doing so with a win today. Overall the Penguins average 3.29 goals and concede 3.13 at home. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Carolina is still just 10-14 (-9.1 units) vs. division opponents this year, while Pittsburgh is 41-22 (+10.9 units) in its last 63 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game. Lay it.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10* play

I'm playing on SD. Analysis to follow

The set-up: Cole Hamels returns to Texas to take on his former club and he faces a volatile counterpart in Lance Lynn. After the first two games of this interleague series it’s tied at 1-1, but I think that Hamels and the visiting side has the clear advantage tonight.

The pitchers: Hamels went 4-3 with a 2.36 ERA for Chicago after getting acquired at the trade deadline. 

Lynn has been bouncing from one team to the next over the last two years, including in St. Louis, Minnesota, New York and now to Texas. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is still 42-20 (+13 units) as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Texas is just 12-33 (-16 units) in its last 35 as a home underdog of +125 or more. I’m banking Hamels getting the better of his counterpart today.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: Dallas comes in off a 105-99 loss in Miami, while OKC fell 115-105 at home to the Nuggets. The Thunder took the last game between these teams 122-102 on December 31st, but the Mavs are 2-1 so far in the season series. OKC is barely holding onto the eighth seed in the West right, tied with the Spurs, so the motivation to play spoiler is definitely real for the visitors today. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 when playing with two days rest, while the Thunder are only 18-19 ATS at home this year and only 4-6 ATS in their last ten off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. OKC continues to stumble and I like Dallas to once again push it to the brink. Grab the points.

Dallas Mavericks

10* play

The set-up: Clearly with a spread like this, the oddsmakers are expecting a very tight game. And while I don’t think the outright win is out of the question, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. The Tigers are on a roll right now and the momentum they’ve created is very real. And at this time of year in sports, “momentum” can ver a very real and even tangible factor. After winning the SEC tournament, the Tigers have won four straight, most recently destroying Kansas 89-75, before then dismantling the No. 1 seed Tar Heels. Kentucky was rolling along until a tougher than expected 62-58 win over No. 3 Houston (note that that Wildcats had 14 turnovers, which were offset by a 36-23 rebounding discrepancy.) 

The pick: Auburn suffered a blow with the injury to Okeke, but Auburn still possesses the talent to hang around late. I’m expecting a war until the end. Grab the points.

Auburn Tigers

10* play

The set-up: I base my selections on many different things and for this particular one, I’m going to use good old plain common sense. Anaheim is in Calgary on Friday night and I believe it’ll come in “flat” here in the second game of the back to back. The Oilers have been all but eliminated from playoff contention, but they’ll be eager for a win here after a 3-2 shootout loss to Dallas at home in their latest outing. 

The-pick: Note that the Ducks are just 2-6 in their second game of a back to back on the road, while the Oilers are 7-3 in their last ten home games following an OT loss in which they scored two or less goals in. Lay the price.

Edmonton Oilers

10* play

The set-up: The prodigal son returns to Texas! Well, maybe that’s a little far fetched. But Cubs’ starter Yu Darvish does return to Texas where he spent his first five years of his career and he comes in with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove after an injury plagued 2018. Darvish’s counterpart today though has more questions than answers at the moment.

The pick: Darvish was just 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA last year. Darvish put together a decent spring and to say he’ll be leaned upon by the Cubbies this year would be a big understatement. 

The home side turns to Edinson Volquez, who was 4-8 with a 4.19 ERA for the Marlins in 2017. The 35 year old had Tommy John surgery last year and he made five spring starts this season, totalling 13.1 innings of work.

The pick: Darvish’s issues aren’t nearly as great as Volquez’s and I believe the Japanese hurler returns to form this season. Or at least for one game vs. his former team. Lay it.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: Portland comes in off a big road win in Atlanta just last night and I have a hard time seeing the team mustering up the same energy in the second game of the back to back and at the very end of another long regular season. Detroit comes in off a 115-98 home win over Orlando as it continues to fight for playoff positioning as the season winds down. The home side will be out to dictate the pace tonight and take advantage of this road weary Blazers side. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up great for a lower-scoring “under.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Portland has seen the total go under the number in 23 of its last 38 when playing against a team with a winning record, while Detroit has seen the total go under in 17 of 27 non-conference games. This number is a little high.

Trail Blazers/Pistons UNDER

10* play

The set-up: It’s a contrast of styles. They do say that “defense” wins championships, but for the most part that pertains to the gridiron. Texas Tech though has looked brilliant on both ends of the court and I believe they’re going to give the No. 1 seed everything it can handle tonight. Texas Tech destroyed Michigan 63-44 in the Sweet 16, while Gonzaga easily handled FSU 72-58. In the win over the Wolverines the Red Raiders show 43.6 percent from the floor while holding Michigan to just 32.7 percent shooting. The Bulldogs shot 40.3 percent in their win over the Seminoles, while holding FSU to 37.2 percent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas Tech is a perfect 5-0 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while Gonzaga is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. good defensive tams which allow 64 points or less per contest. I think defense wins the day in this one. That said, grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10* play

Selction: Mets/Nationals UNDER

Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: Colorado has all the momentum here. It also now has a two point lead for the final wild card spot in the West over these very Coyotes. Arizona had lost five in a row before a 1-0 win over Chicago on Tuesday. Colorado though has gone 5-0-1 over its last six after a win over Vegas on Wednesday. Clearly this is a big game for both teams and I simply can’t understate how important I think that the home ice advantage is. The Coyotes offense has been completely anemic of late and I have a hard time seeing them just “flipping a switch” here (note that Arizona has scored just seven times over its last six games.) The Avs got further good news today with the expected return of captain Gabriel Landeskog. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Coyotes are just 9-20 in their last 29 when playing on two days rest, while the Avalanche are 6-2 in their last eight home games. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price.

Colorado Avalanche

10* play

The set-up: The Jazz have won three straight and I think they’re going to get caught “looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Washington broke a five-game losing streak with a win over Phoenix in its latest outing. So far the Wizards have average 114.3 PPG, while allowing 117.1. The Jazz come in having won eight of their last night, but they still only average 110.0 PPG. Utah does allow only 105.9 PPG, but this is in fact a spot in which its struggled in all year. 

The pick: As note that the Jazz are just 9-14 ATS this season after two or more consecutive wins. Washington on the other hand is a sharp 23-16 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. I think this one will be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

Washington Wizards

10* play

The set-up: The Astros took the opener 5-1 on Thursday afternoon and I believe an even bigger blowout is in the cards in the second game Friday night.

The pitchers: The Astros turn to Gerrit Cole, who was 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 2018. Over five spring starts Cole posted a 2.81 ERA and .179 batting average. 

The Rays counter with Charlie Morton, who threw for the Astros for the last few years and who was 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA last season. 

The pick: Morton has been fantastic over the last three years, but a new venue and team brings familiarity issues. I like Cole to continue his dominant form and for the hard-hitting visiting side to beat up on its former team mate. Lay the price.

Houston Astros

10* play

The set-up: The Jets have lost two of their last three and after falling at home to Dallas last time out, I believe it’ll be “all hands on deck” here. The Isles come to town off a shutout loss in Columbus and I believe they’ll have a difficult time mustering much of an offensive attack here either vs. the focused home side in this difficult road venue. The Isles have only scored six goals over their last five games. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Jets are still 68-27 in their last 95 at home and 32-15 in their last 47 vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Isles are 1-4 in their last five when playing on one days rest and just 11-27 in their last 38 road games against at team with a home winning percentage over .600. All things considered, I think this line could easily be a lot higher. 

Winnipeg Jets 10* play

The set-up: Outright victory? VERY possible in my opinion! The Bulldogs and Seminoles are evenly matched. Gonzaga beat Fairleigh Dickinson and Baylor to advance, while FSU beat Vermont and Murray State. Last year the Seminoles destroyed the Bulldogs 75-60 in the Sweet 16 and I think a similar upset is possible here as well. FSU comes in on top form having won eight of their last nine and it is 16-2 since January. The Noles allow 67 PPG, while the Zags allow 64.8. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Gonzaga is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 NCAA games and interestingly only 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight vs. the ACC, while FSU is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral-site games. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points. 

10* play

The set-up: Two teams which hope to be in the postseason collide in this National League contest on Thursday afternoon and with their respective “aces” getting the call, everything points to a low-scoring pitchers duel in my opinion. 

The pitchers: Jacob deGrom gets the call for New York and last year he finished 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA. deGrom just signed a five-year 137.5 million dollar contract on Tuesday.

Max Scherzer gets the nod for the home side. Scherzer was 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA in 2017 and 18-7 with a 2.53 ERA in 2018. Scherzer struck out 12 in his final spring tune-up on Friday.

The pick: Throw the stats out the window on Opening Day. I expect these two hungry Cy Young winners to “steal the show” and to battle deep into the latter frames.

Nationals/Mets UNDER

10* play

Selection: The set-up: NC State hosts Lipscomb in the NIT quarterfinals. The Wolfpack got back Harvard to advance, led by CJ Bryce with 16 points and seven boards. The Bison advanced with an 86-69 rout of North Carolina-Greensboro Spartans, led by 24 points from Rob Marberry. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Lipscomb is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a SU win, while the NC State Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU win and 7-3 ATS in their last ten at home. I’m banking on NC State’s defense and the home town crowd to prove to be too much for the Bison tonight.

NC State Wolfpack

10* play

The set-up: Indiana comes in off a 124-88 win over Denver on Sunday, breaking a four-game slide. The Pacers will look to duplicate that performance here in this difficult road venue. The Thunder are out to atone for a 115-103 loss in Memphis in their latest outing. Indiana rallied from behind to knock off OKC 108-106 at home two weeks ago, so the home side also plays with revenge. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically as a faster paced, wide open shootout. 

The pick: Note as well though that Indiana has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of 18 after scoring 115 points or more this season, while OKC has seen the total go “over” in nine of its last 13 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This number is low, play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: I don’t expect either of these conference leaders to give an inch tonight. Houston has won five of six, including back-to-back victories over the Pelicans and Spurs, while the Bucks come in off back-to-back wins as well over the Cavs and Heat. Note that Houston was without point guard Chris Paul when it lost to the Bucks at home in January, setting up the revenge game for the visitors tonight. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this sets up as more of a “run-and-gun” shootout than a slower-paced “chess match.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of nine this season off a win vs. a division rival, while Milwaukee has seen the total go “over” in seven of ten this year after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. With each team pushing the pace from start to finish, I expect this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

10* play

The set-up: After their 2-1 OT win over the Habs on Sunday, I think the Hurricanes will come out flat in the nation’s capital. Washignton comes in off a 3-1 win over the Flyers on Sunday. Overall the Hurricanes average 2.97 goals, while allowing 2.72. Washington averages 3.37 goals and it allows 3.07. 

The pick: This has been a difficult matchup for Carolina, as the Hurricanes have lost seven of their last nine in Washington. The Capitals come in on top form having won nine of their last ten as the favorite and with playoffs looming just around the corner, I look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas here as well. Lay the price.

Washington Capitals 10* play

The set-up: Two teams with the best names of all time clash in the CIT quarterfinals tonight. The Presbyterian Blue Hose advanced by defeating Robert Morris 77-70. Overall the Blue Hose average 78.6 PPG. The Herd punched their ticket to the quarterfinals are a 78-73 win over IUPUI. Marshall so far has averaged 80.1 PPG. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Hose are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Thundering Herd are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 tournament games. Marshall also has a huge advantage here by earning the second round bye, as clearly its much more rested. Lay the points.

Marshall Thundering Herd 10* play

The set-up: The Suns have lost three straight, but I think they put up a fight here down the stretch and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Phoenix got 32 points from Devin Booker in the Suns’ most recent setback to the Kings. Utah destroyed the Bulls on the road in their last game (after losing on the road in Atlanta), but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent tonight in its first game back from the extended East coast road trip.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Utah is just 1-2 ATS this season after a huge blowout victory of 30 or more points. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams are “hungry” for wins, so that entire angle can be thrown out the window. Winnipeg moved into first place in the Central with its convincing 5-0 win over Nashville on Saturday. Winnipeg won’t be taking the foot off the gas with just a handful of games remaining, meaning that the home games are even that much more important at this part of the season. The Stars are getting spectacular goaltending from Ben Bishop, who leads the NHL with a 2.05 GAA. But Winnipeg has a pretty good goaltender itself in Connor Hellebuyck, who is 31-20-2 with a 2.93 GAA this season. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 2-8 in its last ten vs. a team with a winning record, while Winnipeg is 5-0 in its last five when playing on one days rest and 17-4 in its last 21 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Expect Winnipeg to keep the foot on the gas once again and lay the price.

10* play on the Jets.

The set-up: Vancouver won’t be playing in the post-season, but it won’t be going down without a fight here. The Canucks have won three of their last four games, remaining competitive despite an off-season of golf looming just a couple of weeks away. Columbus can’t take anything for granted either, as it’s fallen three points back of the final Wild Card spot in the West. I’m expecting both teams to push the pace of this one from start to finish and a faster paced game = more shots and more shots = more goals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Columbus has seen the total go “over” the number in 13 of its last 19 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game, while Vancouver has seen the total fly “over” in four of its last six vs. teams with winning records. 

10* play

The set-up: UC Irvine clearly can’t be taken lightly after knocking off K-State in the opening round 70-64. The Anteaters have averaged 107.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 97.4 points per 100 possessions. Note that UC Irvine has held its opposition to just 40.7 percent shooting from inside the arc, which ranks first in the country. The Ducks smashed Wisconsin 72-54, but I think they’ll have their hands full today with this aggressive Anteaters defense. Overall the Ducks average 108.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing only 92.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UC Irvine is 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog, while Oregon is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite in the 3.5 to six points range. Bank on the Anteaters going down with a fight, but don’t be shocked by the outright either. Either way though, grab the points.

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The set-up: Denver comes to town off a 111-93 road win over the Knicks, while the Pacers enter off a 112-89 road loss at Golden State on Thursday. Denver has dominated this series of late, winning the last two, including a 102-100 victory in the first matchup on March 16th. The Nuggets come in on top form having won six straight. Overall Denver is 7-3 in its last ten, averaging 110.8 points in that span. The Pacers return home after an 0-4 Western road swing. Indiana is averaging 107.7 PPG, while allowing 104.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, while Indiana is only 1-4 ATS in its last five after playing on two days of rest. I think this is a bad matchup for Indiana and I look for the visitors to keep the good times rolling for at least one more night. Play on Denver.

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The set-up: I think Boston bounces back here after falling 118-115 in Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Hornets look poised for a predictable letdown after their 113-106 home win over the Wolves. Boston has taken two of three in the season series thus far. The C’s average 112.7 PPG and they concede 107.7. Over its last ten games Boston is 6-4, averaging 116 points and allowing 113.4. The Hornets average 110.4 PPG and they concede 111.5. Charlotte is 4-6 in its last ten, scoring 106.5 PPG in that span.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while Charlotte is still just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games and 0-6 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

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The set-up: Both teams come in off losses, but the Coyotes are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and I believe they’ll bounce back in this favorable spot. Arizona lost 4-3 to Florida on the road, while New Jersey comes in off a 5-1 home loss to Boston. Going into their Eastern road trip the Coyotes had the eighth spot locked down, but after back-to-back losses, they’re now tied with Colorado. Coyotes’ goaltender Darcy Kuemper remains a respectable 11-12 with a 2.83 GAA on the road this season. The Devils are just counting down the days to the off season. New Jersey goaltender Cory Schneider is 5-15 with a 3.18 GAA on the year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 5-1 in its last six as a favorite in the -150 to -200 range, while New Jersey is 21-48 in its last 69 as a home underdog. New Jersey has lost three straight, getting outscored 12-2 in those games. Go with the desperate Coyotes to get back on track in a big way in this favorable matchup. Lay it.

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The set-up: The Terps advanced by the skin of their teeth in a 79-77 win over Belmont on Thursday, while LSU held on for 79-75 victory over LSU in its Round 1 matchup. Neither team looked great, but they did enough to advance. However LSU looked a lot better overall in my opinion. The Terps had to play “catch up” as well all game on Thursday, falling behind by 12 points early (the Bruins missed a long 3 at the buzzer, which would have been the outright upset.) Overall Maryland shot just 43.5 percent from the floor in that one, including only 27.3 percent from range. LSU won the SEC regular season title, but was upset by Florida in the League Tournament. The Tigers shot 45.9 percent from the floor in their win over Yale, while holding it to just 21.6 percent (8 for 37) from range. 

The pick: Throw the trends out the window at this point. LSU has the big advantage on the offensive end and its improved defensive play of late makes it the correct call in this particular matchup. Lay it.

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The set-up: Both teams “survived” their opening rounds and neither can be ver happy with they it performed. Neither covered the spread. The Terrapins advanced with a 79-77 win over Belmont, having to play “catch up” the entire game after falling behind by 13 early, while LSU held on for a 79-75 victory over Yale. Maryland averages 71.6 PPG and it allows 65.4, while LSU averages 81.3 PPG, while allowing 73.1. However, after both teams’ lacklustre efforts in the first rounds, I’m expecting each to push the pace from start to finish in Round 2.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Maryland has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten when playing with one or less days rest, while LSU has seen the total fly “over” in 15 of its last 20 as a neutral four favorite of six points or less or pick. This number is low, play the “over.”

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The set-up: Washington went 15-3 in the Pac-12, but it was upset by Oregon in the Conference tournament title game. Utah State is 17-1 in its last 18 and it won the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Huskies though won the Pac 12 regular season title. I think the Washington player Jaylen Nowell, who earned Pac 12 Player of the Year honors will prove to be a difficult matchup for the Aggies today (note that Washington also has Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle as well.) Utah State beat SDSU 64-57 in the title game, but I have a hard time seeing the Aggies’ offense keeping pace today. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, while Utah State is just 7-8 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. I think the Huskies depth on both end of the floor proves to be too much for the Aggies in this one.

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The set-up: These teams are similar in that they both employ a 2-3 matchup zone defense. Baylor finished 19-13 and is back dancing after a one-year absence. Only two Baylor players have NCAA Tournament experience. Syracuse finished 20-13 and this will be coach Jim Boeheim’s 34th NCAA Tournament appearance. Syracuse sat out starting guard Tyus Battle in both ACC Tournament games as a precautionary measure because of a sore back, but he’s been returned to go at 100% health in this one. 

The pick: The Orange have held opponents to 40 percent shooting for the season and 32.3 percent from range. The Orange are also 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite in the -1 to -7 range, while Baylor is just 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA tournament contests. Lay the points.

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The set-up: The St. Francis Terriers had a 17-15 record overall, but they’d go 9-7 in league play and a share of the Northeast Championship (they average 71 points, led by 15.1 per game from Jalen Jordan.) Hampton was 9-7 in the Big South, but just 15-16 overall. Hampton is 10-3 at home this year and it averages 81.7 PPG.

The pick: The Pirates though aren’t nearly as good on the defensive side of things and I believe that leaves the door wide open for this under rated Terriers team. Take it for what you will as well, but St. Francis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing a game as road dog, while Hampton is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 tournament games. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Outright victory? Almost assuredly not. I’m not calling for one at all anyways. But I do believe the Bradley Braves come in under the radar here and I believe they can keep this one competitive late. MSU came from behind to knock off Michigan in the Big Ten title game and could easily be still caught up on that big come from behind victory. The Braves won’b be going down without a fight, as they return to The Big Dance for the first time since 2006. Bradley limits its opposition to 41.1 percent shooting and 32.8 percent from range. The Braves had a signature win over Penn State, 59-56 in the Cancun Challenge. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bradley is 11-6 ATS as an underdog this season and 5-0 ATS in all neutral court games, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final horn.

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The set-up: Seattle won 9-7 in the 2019 season opener in Japan early yesterday morning. Domingo Santa delivered a grand slam in the victory. Both teams bats looked great, including the A’s Khris Davis, who led MLB with 48 home runs last year, Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty who all went yard, and the Mariners got balanced hitting from Tim Beckham and newcomer Edwin Encarnacion, who scored twice.

The pitchers: Mariners go with LHP Yusei Kikuchi, as the 27 year old makes his MLB debut in his home country. 

The A’s hand the ball to Marco Estrada, who steadily declined with the Blue Jays over the last three years before posting a career worst 7-14, 5.64 ERA record. The 35 year old isn’t getting any younger, as he had difficulties with his hip and back all year in 2018.

The pick: I think these starters get chased early and I look for these hard-hitting offense to put a plethora of points on the board once it’s all said and done. Play the “over.”

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The set-up: Clearly the oddsmakers agree that this is going to be a tight battle. Despite backing its way down the stretch, ASU has now made back-to-back NCAA Tourney appearances for the first time since the early 80’s. If recent history is any precedence, then the Sun Devils have to be loving their chances today as well as they’d meet the Red Storm in LA last year and beat them 82-70. This is St. John’s first winning season for Chris Mullin since he took over four years ago. St. John’s got out to a quick start in non-conference play and despite a shot in The Big Dance, the team has failed to live up to expectations as far as many are concerned. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. John’s is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 neutral sit games, while ASU is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs. Lay the short points, play on Arizona State.

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The set-up: Let’s face it, it wouldn’t be difficult to write a convincing argument for this total to “over” or “under” the number. Both teams possess some of the most dangerous offensive talent on the planet. But each side also sports some of the best goaltending in the league as well. These are two of the top teams in the East and Tampa just beat the Capitals 6-3 at home last week in a “barn burner.” Suffice it to say, with the shift in venue, I’m expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 14 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it gave up six or more goals in and in which it lost by two or more goals in. This number is high, play the “under.”

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The set-up: The Clippers come in off a last second win over the Nets on Sunday, while the Pacers come in off a listless 106-98 setback in Portland just last night. Indiana looked decent defensively in last night’s loss, but the continued absence of offensive star Victor Oladipo is clearly starting to take its toll on the offensive side of things. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indiana has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after scoring 100 points or less in a loss in the first game of a back-to-back scenario, while LA has seen the total go “under” in four of its last five vs. teams with winning SU records. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

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The set-up: Temple lost 80-74 in the quarterfinals of the ACC to Wichita State on Friday, while Belmont lost 77-65 to Murray State in the title game of the OVC Tournament back on March 9th. These teams have never played against each other. The Owls average 74.8 PPG and they allow 71.2. The Bruins average a whopping 87.4 PPG, while allowing just 73.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Belmont is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning SU record, while the Owls are only 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. I think Belmont’s high-octane offense turns out to be the difference in this one. Lay the points.

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The set-up: Florida comes to Dallas off a 3-2 road loss to the Ducks, while the Stars lost 3-2 in a shootout to Vancouver at home on Sunday. This is the second time these teams have played and Dallas won the first matchup 3-0 on the road back on February 12th. I believe we’ll see a similar final outcome here as well. Florida looks poised for a letdown after its four game win streak was snapped last time out. The Stars won’t be taking anything for granted after two straight losses though (after winning six of their previous seven. Florida averages 3.21 GPG and it allows 3.28, while Dallas averages 2.51 goals and it allows 2.46. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Florida is just 2-7 in its last nine in the third game of a “3-in-4” situation, while Dallas is 5-1 in its last six after scoring two goals or less in its previous outing. I think home ice plays a big part here as well. Lay the price.

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The set-up: The Warriors got blown out at home by the Celtics and since then they’ve won two straight over Houston and OKC. That setback to Boston was a wake up call for the defending champs and I think they carry that momentum over here as they look to send a third straight message to the top teams in the West. Golden State in fact destroyed the Thunder 110-88 on Saturday: “Everybody’s been locked in,” forward Draymond Green assured. “You see a different fire in the coaching staff, a different focus in their eyes. You see a different focus and fire in our players’ eyes, and that’s important. The training staff’s been locked in, like everybody’s been locked in since that loss. It comes at a good time for us, I think we got 13 or 14 games left, it’s the right time to start playing well and try to roll on into the playoffs feeling good.” No better team to go against than the Spurs, who have won eight straight games. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are still just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when playing on one days rest, while the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. tams with a winning home record. Lay the short points and expect a blowout.

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The set-up: Buffalo comes in off a tiring 4-2 loss at Carolina last night and I think it’ll have a difficult time mustering much of an offensive attack against the Blues’ stifling defense. St. Louis cruised to an easy 5-1 win over Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon and I believe it carries that momentum over here as well. The Sabres have in fact lost seven straight. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 8-2 in its last ten vs. tams with losing records. The Blues have won 20 of the last 23 in this series and have everything to play for here. The Sabres on the other hand are simply going through the motions at this point. I’m laying the price and expecting a blowout. 

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The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a 123-114 home win over the Kings on Friday, while the Bucks posted a 113-98 road win at Miami the same night. Philadelphia plays with revenge here today after falling 123-108 here back on October 24th. The 76ers in fact have won three straight and they come in averaging 114.9 PPG, while allowing 111.5. The Bucks have won two straight and they average 117.6 points, while allowing 108.3. 

The pick: With Joel Embiid back in the mix, the 76ers are once again rolling. They play with the added incentive of revenge today and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 70-51 ATS in its last 121 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent that scored 100 points or more in, while Milwaukee is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

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The set-up: Texas Arlington is off a 67-58 win over Georgia Southern, while Georgia State won 59-46 over Texas State to advance. The Panthers won both regular season meetings over the Mavericks. Each team comes in off a lower-scoring victory and I’m expecting a similar battle here as well. The Mavericks held the Eagles to just 36.7 percent shooting last tie out. UTA needed its defense to step up though, as the offense connected on just 39.7 percent of its chances in the victory. Overall UTA has averaged 69.4 PPG and allowed 69.7. Georgia State averages 77.2 PG and it allows 73.2. During league play though the Panthers have averaged 76.5 PPG and they allow 72.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UTA has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game, while Georgia State has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 11 after allowing 48 points or less in its previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.”

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The set-up: Both teams come in off games just last night. The Blazers pulled away for a 122-110 win at New Orleans and I think they’ll have a difficult time mustering up the same energy levels here in this difficult road venue. The Spurs barely broke a sweat though in their 109-83 home win over the Knicks and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here as well. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 at home and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 teams with winning percentage over .600, while Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the second game of a back-to-back and only 3-9 ATS In its last 12 games played in San Antonio. Lay the points.

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The set-up: I’m expecting a battle until the bitter end the ACC Tournament Title game. Duke avenged a regular season loss to UNC with a thrilling 74-73 victory last night and I think it’s poised for a letdown here. The Seminoles on the other hand were clinical in their 69-59 dismantling of No. 1 seeded Virginia. Note that this is a revenue game as well for FSU, after Duke hit a 3-pointer at the Buzzer to win 80-78 on January 12th (Cam Reddish.) It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of FSU today in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Duke is just 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. schools with winning records. I think FSU’s length and depth once again gives its opponent everything it can handle tonight. Grab the points.

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The set-up: This is a big game. The Lightning are out to prove their the best team in the league this year and they can prove that with a resounding victory over the defending champs. But clearly Washington won’t be going down without a fight. The Capitals have been great since the All Star break. Washington averages 3.39 goals and it allows 3.07. The Lightning average 3.82 goals and they allow 2.62. 

The pick: Washington is 15-9 (+3.4 units) this year after a win by two goals or more and in a game which I expect to be decided late or even in extra time, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Play on the Capitals on the puck line.

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The set-up: Chicago has lost three straight, including a setback at home to the Lakers most recently. Robin Lopez was a standout with 20 points, seven boards and three assists in a losing cause. Zach Lavine didn’t play in that game, but he’s probable here. The Bulls have been competitive over the last month though and for a ten game stretch recently were the highest scoring team in the league. The Clippers’ five-game win streak was snapped with a loss to the Blazers last time out and I think they’re susceptible for another letdown here as well facing their lowly non-conference opponent. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is already 7-3 ATS this year off a home loss by ten points or more, while LA is already 0-3 ATS this season off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Carolina has won back-to-back games, but it’s been off since a 3-0 win at Colorado on Monday and I think it’ll stumble in this difficult road arena. The Jackets enter off a 7-4 win over the Bruins. This is an important game for both teams as they look to keep pace in the Wildcard race. However, I don’t think that the home ice advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor between these evenly matched clubs.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is already only 3-5 (-4.1 units) this season when playing with three or more days rest, while Columbus is 37-20 (+9.2 units) in its last 57 when playing with two days rest and 16-10 (+2.1 units) after allowing four or more goals in its previous outing. Lay the price.

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The set-up: It’s going to be a war to the end in my opinion here between FSU and Virginia with a trip to the Conference Tourney Final on the line. Both teams earned double-byes and each won their opener. Both teams have won 13 of their last 14. Virginia has the better defense, but FSU has the better offense. FSU plays with revenge here though after a 65-52 loss to Virginia on January 5th. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but FSU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Virginia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five a a neutral court favorite in the +8 to +10 range. Grab the points.

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