The set-up: After a slow start, the Stampeders can ill afford to take the foot off the gas for the rest of the season. Calgary is in the playoff mix and I think it’ll pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. A victory today and the Stamps are in a tie for first place in the division, but a loss and they could wind up all the way in fourth. Note that while covering only once in four games at home this year, Calgary is still 3-1 SU. And despite the Als being 9-2 ATS in their last 11, I definitely believe that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: The Alouettes are getting QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback this week, but one has to wonder how effective they’ll be after each sat out last weekend with injury? The Stamps have finally adjusted to QB Nick Arbuckle running the show, entering this one having gone 4-2 SU in their last six. I’m banking on Montreal finally taking a step back here vs. this determined home side. Lay the points.

Calgary Stampeders 10* play

The set-up: EPL defending champ Man City took care of business in a 5-0 win over West Ham in east London last weekend, instantly pushing them to top spot on the board. Clearly Manchester City will want to keep the foot on the gas here and its place in the rankings. Tottenham came out slow last week, but a late marker by Harry Kane would guide the home team to a 3-1 win over Aston Villa in the end. 

The pick: The Spurs have their work cut out for them here at the Etihad and certainly “sitting back” and waiting for the game to come to them isn’t a strategy that’s going to work vs. Man City, who didn’t even break a sweat vs. the new look Hammers last weekend. With both teams pushing the pace, this one flies over sooner than later in my opinion.

Tottenham/Man City OVER 10* play

The set-up: I think the Bills are going to “go through the motions” in this difficult road venue. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott’s team was just 6-10 last year and the Bills are 4-5 in the pre-season under his direction. Carolina was just 7-9 under Ron Rivera last season, but overall he’s 19-14 in the preseason. 

The pick: The Bills already have a solid 24-16 home win under their belts vs. the Colts last Thursday anyways. The Panthers scored the 23-13 win in Chicago last Thursday, but I don’t think they’ll take the foot off on the gas in this home field situation (rookie defender Brian Burns had two sacks). I think Buffalo packs up its tents early; play the home side on the money-line.

Carolina Panthers, Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: Do I think either of these clubs is going to do well in the regular season? I don’t. But this is preseason Week 2, so none of that matters anyways. Washington backup QB Dwayne Haskins threw two INT’s in his team’s Week 1 loss to the Browns, but I think he’ll settle down here after getting that awkward game behind him. The Bengals have plenty of issues as well heading into the new year. New system and new faces and having to adjust without star WR AJ Green for a few months. 

The pick: Note that this is a short week for Bengals, who played last Saturday night. I think Washington takes this home game seriously. Lay the price on the money line.

Washington Redskins Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: Two hungry teams face off against two hungry starters and in my opinion, it’s going to be these capable hurlers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Marcus Stroman gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side goes with Julio Teheran.

The pitchers: Stroman (6-11, 3.20 ERA) has faced the Braves twice and he’s gone 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs and struck out nine over seven innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Friday.

Teheran (7-7, 3.35) enters on top form, going 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA over his last seven starts. 

The pick: Atlanta has won the first two games of this series and all signs point to a battle in the finale as well. This number is high, play the under.

Atlanta Braves/NY Mets UNDER 10* play

The set-up: The Phillies destroyed the Cubs last night, but I like the visitors to respond on Thursday to avoid the series sweep. Chicago hands the ball to Yu Darvish, while the home side goes with Drew Smyly.

The pitchers: Darvish (4-6, 4.43 ERA) comes in off a shaky outing vs. the Reds, allowing four runs over seven innings, but overall he’s been solid of late, posing 53 K’s over his last 41 2/3’s innings of work. 

Smyly (2-6, 6.96) is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA in four starts for the Phillies and this’ll be the first time he’s ever faced the Cubs in his six year career. 

The pick: Note that Philadelphia’s back-to-back wins to open this series are its first back-to-back victories since July 28th-30th. I like the “hungrier” team to get the job done at the end of the night.

Chicago Cubs 10* play

The set-up: This is an interesting Week 2 preseason matchup, as it pits Jacksonville’s newly acquired QB Nick Foles vs. his former team in which he won a Super Bowl with and was named the MVP in 2018. Foles is only expected to see limited time today, as is Eagles’ starter Carson Wentz, but there’s still going to be a very competitive atmosphere surrounding this contest. And in my opinion, that’s going to lead to this one to be more of a high-scoring “shootout” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” 

The pick: The Jaguars went through the motions in their 29-0 Week 1 loss in Baltimore, electing to sit out 30 players in that one. Jacksonville’s full compliment is expected to see action at some point today thug, so look for the home side offense to be much better this time around. When you add it all up, I do indeed feel that this number is a little low.

Jacksonville Jags/Philadelphia Eagles OVER 10* play

The set-up: Trevor Bauer has gotten out to a decent start for his new team, but I think he’s in over his head in the Nation’s capital vs. Washington ace Stephen Strasburg. All things considered, I feel this is an extremely good price.

The pitchers: Bauer (10-8, 3.74 ERA) gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Friday. 

Strasburg (14-5, 3.72) most recently allowed three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Mets last week. Overall he’s 4-1 with a 3.99 ERA in nine career starts vs. Cincinnati. 

The pick: Washington won 3-1 yesterday, which was its sixth win in its last eighth. The Nationals got a bit boost to their line-up yesterday with Juan Soto and Brian Dozier, who each smacked a solo home run. I think Bauer takes a small step back in this difficult road venue. Lay the price.

Washington Nationals 10* play

The set-up: Pittsburgh pulled off the upset last night after the Angels returned home from a 2-5 road trip, but I think the home side will bounce back in quick order on Tuesday. The Pirates turn to Trevor Williams, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning. 

The pitchers: Williams (4-5, 5.06 ERA) most recently was shelled for six runs off eight hits over five innings in an 8-3 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday (overall Williams is just 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA over his past five outings.) 

Canning (4-6, 4.76) returns from a short stint on the IL, but previous to that he held the Tigers scoreless over seven frames on July 30th. 

The pick: Last night’s win was just the Pirates fifth in their last 29 games. Expect the now desperate home side to come in focused and to take advantage of this clear mismatch on the mound. Lay the price.

LA Angels 10* play

The set-up: Considering the talent level between the starting pitchers this evening, I believe that runs are going to be at a premium. Boston goes with ace Chris Sale, while Cleveland hands the ball to Mike Clevinger. 

The pitchers: Sale (6-11, 4.41 ERA) enters on top form, having struck out 13 over eight scoreless in a win over the Angels on Thursday. 

Clevinger (7-2, 3.02) most recently allowed two runs over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Twins on Thursday.

The pick: Boston will essentially have to run the table now at any shot of defending its crown. One game at a time I guess. But after last night’s 6-5 Indians win, I do definitely believe that the stage is set for a “duel” this evening. This number is a little high. 

Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Cincinnati lost 6-3 to the Reds on Sunday afternoon, while Washington pulled away for a 7-4 victory at the Mets. For a number of different reasons though, I think that the opener of this series sets up as more of a “duel.” The Reds turn to Anthony DeSclafani, while the home side goes with Erik Fedde.

The pitchers: DeSclafani (7-6, 4.20 ERA) gave up four runs over six innings in a win over the Angels on Tuesday. Previous to that start though he’d allowed three or fewer earned runs over a seven outing stretch (note that he’s a solid 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA in all night games.) 

Fedde (2-2, 4.20) comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Giants last Monday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that he can’t carry that momentum over here, going six scoreless vs. the Giants. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Reds have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 National League road games in which the total is set between 10 and 10.5, while the Nationals have seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten home games when the total falls in the same range. This number is high.

Cincinnati Reds/Washington Nationals UNDER 10* play

The set-up: This is the rubber match of a three-game series and I believe that because of the level of competency on the mound between the starting pitchers tonight, that runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Bassitt, while the home side counters with Lucas Giolito. 

The pitchers: Bassitt (7-5, 3.80 ERA) has posted back-to-back quality starts, but has earned a no-decision each time for his effort. Clearly Bassitt won’t be lacking for motivation here. 

Giolito (12-5, 3.44) snapped a five start winless skid with a quality start and victory over Detroit on Monday. 

The pick: Note that in three career starts vs. the White Sox, Bassitt has walked five and struck out 15 spanning 17 innings. Giolito earned a win over the A’s in his only start vs. them, allowing four runs over eight innings. With each of these competent hurlers fighting deep into the latter frames, look for this total to stay well below the posted number. 

Oakland A's/Chi White Sox UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Newcastle United should be better this year than last, but I still think they’re completely overclasses here. True Arsenal has been poor on the road and the Magpies have five new signings, but the visitors depth is the difference here. The Gunners were busy in the transfer market as well, spending 72 million Euros for Nicolas Pepe. 

The pick: Arsenal has won 12 of the last 13 matches vs. Newcastle United and I think the Magpies will once again struggle with chemistry to open the new season. Newcastle’s new boss Steve Bruce draws a difficult opponent out of the gate. Arsenal has a lot to prove this year, but I think it’ll have more than enough firepower up front to win the day in regulation.

Arsenal 10* play

The set-up: Dallas hasn’t put a lot of stock into the preseason (0-6 in its last six Week 1 contests). That includes a 24-21 loss to San Francisco in Week of the preseason last year. The 49ers turn to backup QB’s Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard, who will be in a fight for the No. 2 spot with Jimmy Garoppolo returning shortly. Mullens comes in with plenty of confidence after leading the way for the 49ers last year with 2,277 passing yards and a 90.8 passer rating. The Cowboys won’t have Dak Prescott or Ezekiel Elliot on the field of play today. Cooper Rush and Mike White will be splitting time under center for the visitors. 

The pick: As mentioned above, Jason Garrett simply doesn’t put much emphasis on the preseason as evidenced by the Cowboys winless 2018 preseason, scoring 13 points or fewer in three of the four games (note that San Fran has NEVER scored fewer than 13 points in eight preseason games under its head coach Shanahan.) This one has “blowout” written all over it; play on the home side money line.

San Francisco 49ers  10* play

The set-up: These teams last played on October 21st, 2018 and they’d finish in a 0-0 draw. The Earthquakes held possession for 59 percent of that contest and had 20 attempts on goal with four shots on target. The Rapids on the other hand had only six shots on goal and two on target. 

The pick: Based on recent form, San Jose offers great value at this price, going 4-1-1 in its last six, while Colorado is just 2-3-1 in its last six. Look for San Jose’s superior attack up front to prove to be too much for Colorado in regulation.

San Jose Earthquakes (vs. Colorado Rapids)

10* play

The set-up: Mike Soroka is putting together a fantastic rookie campaign for the Braves, as he’s played a big part in the team’s success this year. Sandy Alcantara has been more “miss” than “hit” for the Fish this season and I believe he’ll have his hands full here vs. the hard-hitting visiting side. When you add it all up, I believe this number is a little low. 

The pitchers: Soroka (10-2, 2.45 ERA) most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Monday. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Soroka, other than his low strikeout numbers (97 K’s in 121 frames).

Alcantara (4-10, 4.50) enters off a decent start vs. the Mets on Monday, allowing two runs over five innings in a no-decision. Despite the effort though, note that Alcantara still has a poor 7.21 ERA since the All-Star break. 

The pick: Also note that Alcantara is just 2-8 with a 5.94 ERA in all “night” games this year. Take it for what you will as well, but ATL has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten National League road games with a total set at either 8 or 8.5 and as a -125 to -175 favorite. Everything points to a “slug-fest.” 

Atlanta Braves/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play

The set-up: With no room to take the foot off the gas, I believe the Braves make the most of this opportunity. Atlanta turns to red hot veteran Julio Teheran, while the home side goes with Caleb Smith.

The pitchers: Teheran (6-7, 3.46 ERA) most recently allowed three runs with five K’s over five innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Sunday. Teheran hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing since May 26th. 

Smith (7-5, 3.35) most recently allowed three runs off six hits with four walks in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Overall Smith has been sharp this season, but I believe that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is a near-perfect 12-1 (+10.8 units) this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is just 8-21 (-9.1 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the price.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Braves.

The set-up: Jon Gray has been solid for the Rockies this year, but I still think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Eric Lauer for the most part has struggled for the Padres this year and I think he’s going to get the hook early here as well. 

The pitchers: Gray (10-7, 4.03 ERA) has enjoyed success vs. the Padres throughout his career, but he comes in off a terrible outing vs. the Giants on Saturday, giving up four runs off nine hits and a walk over four innings. 

Lauer (6-8, 4.43) is 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA and 2.488 WHIP and .364 OBA in four career starts. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 on the road when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while SD has seen the total soar over the number in 14 of 21 at home this year when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. Expect this one to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres OVER 10* play

The set-up: Houston was 11-5 last year and it won its third straight AFC South Division title. The Packers though are coming off a terrible 6-9-1 season, which has seen some major changes come to the team over the last couple of months. Houston was 3-1 in the preseason last year, after going 3-4 the year before. Green Bay though is led by first-time coach Matt LaFleur and despite this being only Week 1 of the pre-season, I think he’ll be extra motivated here to actually try and win this game in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: DeShaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers aren’t likely going to play, but each team has plenty of talent. Houston has AJ McCarron and Joe Webb III as its backup QB’s, but the Texans have taken a step back in the RB department, with Lamar Miller once again shouldering much of the load. The Pack will be looking at DeShone Kizer and Tim Boyle under center in this one and they also have a competition at RB with Kapri Bibbs and Dexter Williams. I think that LaFleur coaches for the victory today.

Green Bay Packers 10* play money line.

The set-up: Detroit head coach Matt Patricia was the Pats defensive coordinator, but his first year with the Lions didn’t go as he planned. Patricia is on “hot seat” as he enters the 2019/20 season and I believe he’s going to have his team ready to play vs. his former boss and the defending Super Bowl champs. Note that when the Patriots came to Detroit in Week of the regular season last year, Detroit pulled away for an impressive 26-10 victory, as the Lions held the Pats to 12 first downs and 209 yards. 

The pick: New England isn’t expected to play any of its star players on either side of the ball. Detroit has many new faces on both sides of the ball, which leads to chemistry issues obviously. In this meaningless contest, I believe the offenses take a back seat and that the defensive units become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is high.

NE Patriots/Detroit Lions UNDER 10* play

The set-up: Here’s a matchup where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Jason Vargas, while the home side counters with Zac Gallen.

The pitchers: Vargas (6-5, 3.93 ERA) gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the White Sox on Friday. 

Gallen (1-3, 2.72) started seven games for Miami before getting traded and I think he’s going to respond in his first start for his new club. Gallen would go on to allow 25 hits and post 43 strikeouts while walking 18 over 36 1/3’s innings of work for the Fish. 

The pick: Note as well that Gallen has pitched seven innings in each of his last two starts. And note that while Vargas is 3-2 with a 2.92 ERA in all in home situations this year, he’s just 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA on the road. All things considered, a great price on the home side here. Lay it.

Arizona D-Backs 10* play

The set-up: No disrespect about a solid LASK team from the Austrian Bundesliga, but i believe it’ll come up short here vs. their Swiss counterparts. Note that this EL Qualifier is the first ever meeting between the clubs. 

The pick: FC Basel though plays in the much tougher Swiss Super League and it also has the home field advantage. And if Basel can in fact lay the hammer down here, it’ll basically take away the threat of a loss in the away fixture. FC Basel has won 11 of its last 14 games and scored two or more goals in 17 of its last 19. I’m laying the price.

FC Basel 10* play

The set-up: Neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Yamamoto, while the home side goes with Steven Matz. 

The pitchers: Yamamoto (4-2, 3.94 ERA) was blasted for four runs over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Twins in his last outing.

Matz (6-7, 4.60) was shelled for five runs over three innings in an 8-4 loss to the Bucs in his last start. 

The pick: New York is on a mission now as it looks to complete the four-game sweep. Clearly the Marlins won’t be going down without a fight. Considering the starting pitchers and the above situational/motivational factors, I think this one flys over the posted number sooner, rather than later. 

NY Mets/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play

The set-up: I think that the Reds build off yesterday’s victory and take advantage of another mismatch on the mound today as well. The visitors go with Jose Suarez, while the home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani.

The pitchers: Suarez (2-2, 5.66 ERA) comes in off a terrible start vs. the lowly Tigers on Wednesday, allowing four runs with three walks over four innings, failing to strike out a single batter. Suarez failed to complete five innings in any of his five July starts and note that he’s been terrible in all night games with a 6.08 ERA. 

DeSclafani (6-6, 4.07) is coming off a loss vs. the hard-hitting Braves on Thursday, allowing three runs with five K’s over five innings. DeSclafani has quietly turned things around of late, as over his last ten starts he’s 4-3 with a 60:13 K:BB. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-13 (-4.6 units) as a road dog of +100 to +150 this season, while Cincinnati is 8-3 this season as a home fav of -150 or higher. I LOVE DeSclafani here and I do actually believe he could/should be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds 10* play

The set-up: PAOK Salonika lost 3-2 in aggregate at this point of the qualifier vs. Ajax three years ago and while it’d like to use the “revenge angle,” I still think that it’s severely outclassed here vs. the Dutch giant. Note that in this competition last term, PAOK beat Basel 5-1 on aggregate and Spartak Moscow 3-2 in the qualifying rounds, but they were then smashed 5-2 be Benefica in a play off. 

The pick: Ajax made it through the three qualifying rounds a year ago, but it then finished second to Bayern Munich in Group E. Ajax also beat Real Madrid and Juventus, before then losing out to Tottenham via the away goals rule in the semis. While there have been some injuries of late, Ajax is still loaded with the superior talent and I believe that’ll be more than enough to win the match here. All things considered, a great price. 

Ajax Amsterdam 10* play

The set-up: It’s a must win game for Sporting Kansas City for the most part, however I think the visitors will stumble here vs. the revenge-minded home side which fell 3-2 in the reverse fixture at the end of May. Seattle has made big strides since then, winning four of its last six MLS matches and working its way back into second place in the West. 

The pick: Johnny Russell managed a hat trick in SKC’s 3-2 win over Seattle earlier in the season, but I don’t expect “lightning to strike twice” here. Especially on the road. SKC has made the playoffs in eight straight years, but I think that run comes to an end here. And in resounding fashion. With a chance to put the final nail in the coffin, I look for Seattle to avenge its earlier loss and to keep its clear momentum that its created of late, rolling strong in front of the home town crowd. 

Seattle Sounders 10* play

The set-up: Chris Paddack has had a very good rookie season for the Padres despite what happens here today. Kenta Maeda hasn’t fared as well for the Dodgers this year, but I still think he has more than enough to get the job done in this particular matchup. All things considered, I believe this to be a very fair price. 

The pitchers: Paddack (7-5, 2.78 ERA) comes in off a win vs. the Orioles on Monday, allowing just one run over five innings. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Paddack, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Maeda (7-8, 4.07) enters off a terrible start vs. the Rockies on Monday, allowing six runs over four innings. Overall though Maeda has been strong this season with a 118/38 K/W spanning 112.2 innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is a poor 26-32 (-8.1 units) this year following a loss, while LA is 21-8 (+8.9 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. As mentioned off the top, I think this is a great price.

LA Dodgers 10* play

The set-up: Yes the New England Revolution have been one of the hottest teams since they hired Bruce Arena, but I think they’ll have a hard time with this LA Football Club, which comes in with considerable momentum of its own. All good things must come to an end and after going unbeaten in 11 machos, I simply think that New England is overmatched finally on the field of play today. 

The pick: LAFC has been decent on the road, with seven wins, two draws and two losses. New England has six wins, two draws and FOUR losses at home. Look for LAFC’s depth to prove to be too much for the home side to handle out of the break.

LAFC 10* play

The set-up: Two veteran hurlers with chips on their shoulders go head-to-head in this interesting NL matchup on Saturday night and in my professional opinion, runs are definitely going to be at a premium. The Reds’ trot out the newly acquired Trevor Bauer, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. 

The pitchers: Bauer (9-8, 3.79 ERA) scuffled in his last start for his old team, giving up a career high seven runs over four innings, but terrible performances like that have truly been few and far between for the big right-hander. Note that Bauer has a 1.21 WHIP and 185:63 K:BB through 156.2 innings this year. 

Keuchel (3-4, 3.86) enters off a loss vs. the Nationals on Monday, allowing four runs over six innings. Keuchel though has been at his best at home this year, so far posting a solid 2.66 ERA to this point. 

The pick: I believe the stage is set for a “duel.” This number is high, play the under.

10* NL 2ND HALF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Reds/Braves.

The set-up: One of these pitchers has been solid all year, while the other has struggled. One of these teams is still in the playoff hunt, while the other is trending in the other direction. When you add it all up, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. The Mets go with the newly acquired Marcus Stroman, while the home side goes with Chris Archer. 

The pitchers: Stroman (6-11, 2.96 ERA) has faced Pittsburgh twice in his career, and he’s gone 0-1 with a 1.04 ERA. 

Archer (3-8, 5.58) has gone 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA over his last nine starts and the Pirates have lost each of his last four trips to the hill. 

The pick: In fact Archer faced the Mets on Sunday and he was rocked for five runs over five innings. I think we’re getting great value on Stroman in this match-up, as he’ll be out to prove himself for his new team and he’s currently in much better form than his counterpart. Lay the price.

NY Mets 10* play

The set-up: It’s an important game/series for both teams, meaning that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Brewers hand the ball to Zach Davies, while the home side goes with Jose Quintana.

The pitchers: Davies (8-4, 3.56 ERA) was 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA over his first nine starts this year, but he’s since fallen apart, especially of late in getting blown out in back-to-back losses, most recently allowing seven runs off four hits over five innings in an 11-4 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. 

Quintana (8-7, 4.47) has one good start and one bad start vs. the Brewers this year, but overall he’s 6-4 with a 2.80 ERA vs. Milwaukee for his career. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee is just 12-16 as a road dog this year, while the Cubs are 22-7 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price.

Chicago Cubs 10* play

The set-up: Hamilton has opened the season 5-1, but a devastating injury to QB Jeremiah Masoli has seen their Grey Cup odds drop from +225 to +550 because of it. The Ti-Cats now have to make adjustments on the fly in hostile territory vs. a Riders team which has won two straight. This is a great situational play, as I expect Hamilton to have difficulties on the offensive side of things today as the unit looks to adjust after the Masoli injury. The Riders have looked better of late, but with Zach Collaros eligible to return, it’ll be interesting to see what happens to QB Cody Fajardo.

The pick: Note that three out of these teams last four in the series have fallen under the posted number. With Dane Evans now running the show for Hamilton, expect a much more conservative game-plan from the visitors. I believe when you look at the entire situation that each team finds itself in, that this contest does indeed set up as more of a lower-scoring “chess match” on Thursday night.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats/Saskatchewan Roughriders UNDER

10* play

The set-up: There’s no more meaningless game of the entire year than the first pre-season game. That said, this is the coaching debut of Broncos’ Vic Fangio and because of that, I believe he’s going to be out to win tonight. Fagio was the defensive coordinator of the Bears’ top-ranked defense in 2018. Joe Flacco likely won’t see much or any time for Denver, meaning that rookie Drew Lock from Missouri will be given the green light. 

The pick: Atlanta is just 5-11 in the preseason under head coach Dan Quinn. The Falcons still have more questions than answers after a 7-9 season and I think the Falcons are going to get “out-coached” in Week 1 (note that ATL star receiver Julio Jones is out for the preseason with a foot injury.) I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout in Fangio’s debut.

Denver Broncos 10* play

The set-up: While the first two games of this series have gone under the number, I think that these two hungry clubs (tied for the lead in the NL Central) will post plenty of runs in the rubber match. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty. 

The pitchers: Lester (9-6, 3.63 ERA) is coming off a strong start and he’s had plenty of success vs. the Cards in the past, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here (note that the Cards are 30-23 at home, while the Cubs are only 21-32 on the road this season.) 

Flaherty (4-6, 4.17) has been very hot of late, but he’s struggled mightily vs. the Cubs throughout his career, going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in six match ups.

The pick: Note that the Cubs are expected to welcome slugger Nicholas Castellanos on Thursday night as well, acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. Expect these starters to get chased early and look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Chicago Cubs/St Louis Cards OVER 10* play

The set-up: The Twins look for the series sweep here after yesterdays victory and I think the AL team will do just that in this favorable matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Pineda, while the home side counters with Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Pineda (7-5, 4.30 ERA) has finally re-found his 2017 form, going 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA over his past eight starts. 

Yamamoto (4-2, 3.64) was brilliant in the early going, but he’s predictably come back down to Earth, posting a horrible 9.00 ERA over his last three starts. 

The pick: Note as well that Pineda is also 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his lone start vs. the Fish. I think the Pineda comes in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price.

Minnesota Twins 10* play

The set-up: Here’s the perfect spot to the pull the trigger on the hungry underdog side in my opinion. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to ace Zach Greinke, while the home side counters with Masahiro Tanaka. 

The pitchers: Greinke (10-4, 2.87 ERA) is only three wins shy of 200 for his career. Over his last three he’s 0-1 with a 3.79 ERA. Clearly the vet won’t be lacking for motivation this afternoon. 

Tanaka (7-6, 4.79) enters off the worst start of his career, allowing 12 runs off 12 hits over three innings in Boston on Thursday (he has a 9.55 ERA over his last four starts.) 

The pick: Arizona picked up the 4-2 win in yesterday’s series opener and I believe the stage is set for another upset here. The Diamondbacks can’t take the foot off the gas here as they sit only three games out of the second wild-card spot. New York is trending in the opposite direction finally, having dropped six of its last nine. Great spot bet on the “hungrier” side.

Arizona DBacks 10* play

The set-up: It’s revenge time for AIK after NK Maribor won the reverse fixture 2-1. All three of those goals came in the first 40 minutes. Despite lagging in aggregate though, the Swedish club has the upper hand here as it returns home. Stockholm faced a similar situation in the previous round of qualification as well, losing the away leg, but then managing to comeback in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: NK Maribor is better at home than on the road (won just once out of its last five attempts and it lost three in a row during that stretch as well.) Maribor has also conceded two or more goals in three of its last five matches. AIK on the other hand has turned things around of late, winning four of its last five and potting two or more goals in all of those contests (AIK has also won three straight fixtures at home.) Revenge is a dish best served cold. 

AIK 10* play

The set-up: A couple of competent hurlers go head to head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Dario Agrazal, while the home side counters with ace Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Agrazal (2-1, 3.24 ERA) also comes in off the worst start of his career. Agrazal gave up five runs over six innings in a 6-3 loss to the Mets on Friday, but previous to that he’d not allowed more than two earned runs over his first five starts of his career. Expect a return to the norm here.

Castillo (9-4, 2.71) comes in off his worst start of the year, allowing six runs off eight hits over five innings vs. the Rockies on Friday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Castillo though, who has to be feeling confident as he’s 5-3 with a tiny 2.28 ERA at home.

The pick: After yesterday’s 11-4 Pittsburgh victory, one which ended a nine-game losing streak and which featured a wild benches-clearing brawl, I believe this contest sets up nicely as much more of a “duel.” 

Pittsburgh Pirates/Cincinnati Reds UNDER 10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Two pitchers who are struggling down the stretch collide in this American League contest on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Drew VerHagen, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning. 

The pitchers: VerHagen (1-1, 14.40 ERA) gave up seven runs off six hits with four walks in a loss to the Mariners after getting called up last week.

Canning (3-6, 5.15) was most recently shelled for five runs off five hits while striking out two over two innings. Over his last five outings Canning has given up 18 runs combined.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five as a road dog of +200 or higher, while LA has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year as a home favorite of -200 or higher. Look for these starters to get the hook early and play the over.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Tigers/Angels.

The set-up: Neither pitcher instills a lot of confidence. Both teams are in the hunt for one of the wildcard spots. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Beede, while the home side counters with Drew Smyly.

The pitchers: Beede (3-4, 4.85 ERA) comes in off the worst start of his season, allowing four runs, including three homers and ten hits over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. 

Smyly (1-5, 7.69) makes his second start for his new team after giving up one run over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision in the first vs. the Pirates (also striking out eight). 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is still only 16-18 this year after three straight road games, while Philly is still 30-16 as a home favorite. I like Smyly to build off his latest performance. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The set-up: Toronto is in full on rebuild mode after moving ace starter Marcus Stroman over the weekend. Toronto took two of three from the Rays, before then losing 10-9 in dramatic fashion in extra innings on Sunday afternoon. Now the Jays have to travel across the country and I think they’ll have a predictable letdown here. And that’s good news for the hungry home side and starter Brad Keller. The Jays go with Thomas Pannone. 

The pitchers: Pannone (2-4, 6.39 ERA) has made 25 appearances this year and only three of those have been actual “starts.” Over those three starts he’s lasted just 2 2/3’s, 2 1/3’s and 4 1/3’s innings. 

Keller (7-9, 3.95) enters throwing his best of the entire season, having won four straight, he most recently went seven scoreless in a 2-0 loss to the Braves on Wednesday.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is a poor 16-30 as a road dog already this year, while KC is 8-6 as a home favorite. Lay the price and expect a rout.

10* play on the Kansas City Royals.

The set-up: This has been a completely lop-sided series so far and I believe that the home side is going to keep the foot on the gas for one more game and on the National stage. New York goes with Domingo German, while the Red Sox go with Chris Sale.

The pitchers: German (12-3, 4.03 ERA) comes in his worst start of the year, allowing eight runs off nine hits over three innings in a fortune no-decision. 

Sale (5-9, 4.00) has given up just two runs off six hits over his last 12 innings of work while also posting 22 K’s in the process (he owns a tiny 2.10 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. the Evil Empire.) 

The pick: The Yankees are just 2-5 in their last seven and their starting pitchers have posted a combined ERA of 16.62. And that’s bad news facing a Boston line-up which has already produced 52 hits in this series. Look for Sale to continue his recent progression with a vintage performance on Sunday Night.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Boston Red Sox.

The set-up: After yesterday’s back and forth “slug-fest,” I’m expecting a much more of a “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to Yonny Chirinos, while the home side counters with Aaron Sanchez. 

The pitchers: Chirinos (8-5, 3.29 ERA) has gone at least five frames in all 15 of his starts this year and he’s 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA in four career outings vs. the Jays.

Sanchez (3-14, 6.06) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off five hits while striking out six and walking no one in an unfortunate no-decision to the hard-hitting Indians.

The pick: Note as well that Sanchez owns a tiny 2.03 ERA in 16 career games vs. the Rays. As mentioned off the top, after yesterday’s 10-9 Blue jays win in 12 innings, I think this one sets up nicely as a lower-scoring “under.” 

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the under Rays/Jays.

The set-up: Two suspect hurlers go head-to-head in this one and I believe that runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Adrian Sampson, while the home side goes with Homer Bailey.

The pitchers: Sampson (6-7, 5.19 ERA) while Sampson is 1-0 vs. the A’s in four career starts, he sports an unremarkable 5.51 ERA over that span.

Bailey (8-7, 5.42) beat the Mariners 10-2 at home in his debut for his new club, before then predictably falling back down to Earth in an 11-1 loss at Houston in his second. 

The pick: Note as well that Bailey has faced the Rangers twice already this year while with KC, losing both starts (16-2, 6-2) and posting a 10.13 ERA in the process. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. Play the over.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Rangers/A’s.

The set-up: Winnipeg is rolling at 5-0 and I think the Blue and Gold will keep the foot on the gas in Hamilton this weekend. In fact, many CFL experts are predicting that this will in fact be this year’s Grey Cup matchup, as Hamilton comes in at 4-1. Note that they’ve split their last four games, each winning at home and also winning on the road. It’s true that the last seven games played between these teams have all gone “under” the number, but note that the average total has bee 55.1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road favorite, while Hamilton has seen the total sail over the posted number in all three of its home games thus far. The best in the West vs. the beast in the East. Look for these two teams to open up the playbook and expect this total to sail over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the over Bombers/Cats.

The set-up: I think that Mike Minor and the hard-hitting visiting side are definitely worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The home side counters with Mike Leake.

The pitchers: Minor (8-5, 2.86 ERA) will likely be shipped out of Texas before the trade dead-line, so he certainly won’t be lacking for motivation here. 

Leake (8-8, 4.27) went the distance vs. the Angels in his most recent outing, allowing a single hit in the top of the ninth, finishing with his second career shutout. Can anyone say letdown spot?

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minor has already defeated Leake the Mariners twice this year (Leake is just 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in eight career starts vs. Texas.) I like Minor to complete the “hat-trick” here, so lay the price.

Texas Rangers 10* play

The set-up: This is the first leg of the Champions League Qualifications. BATE Borisov eliminated Polis Piast Gliwice in the second round, while Rosenborg won both matches ageing Linfield in the previous round of competition. This is the first time the teams have ever met. BATE though comes in on top form, having gone undefeated over its previous eight games across all competitions. Note that BATE has kept five clean sheets in its previous ten home showings. Rosenborg has been playing well as well, coming in on a string of five straight victories. But although the Norwegian Champions have scored in eight of their last ten away matches, I think they’re going to have much more difficulty vs. sting BATE on its home turf. 

The pick: Both teams come in “firing on all cylinders,” but I don’t think that the home field advantage, and BATE form in front of the home town crowd, can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. 

BATE Borisov 10* play

The set-up: With their 9-4 win over the Rays on Monday, Boston is now one game behind Tampa for second place in the AL East. The visitors have to be feeling confident that they can build off that victory by handing the ball to ace Chris Sale today. The home side counters with Yonny Chirinos. 

The pitchers: Sale (4-9, 4.05 ERA) comes in off perhaps his best start of the year, going six shutout innings vs. the Jays on Thursday, striking out 12. 

Chirinos (8-5, 3.29) is 1-1 with a 2.88 ERA in five appearances vs. the Red Sox lifetime. 

The pick: Note as well that Sale is 9-6 with a 2.94 ERA over 116 1/3’s innings opposed vs. the Rays lifetime, giving up 78 hits and striking out 169. And take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 77-41 (+11.7 units) the L2 years as a road favorite of -125 or higher, while Tampa Bay is just 8-10 (-4.2 units) this year after a loss by four runs or less. I absolutely believe the Sale and the surging visiting side are worth the price of admission in this spot. Lay it.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: PSV is unbeaten in 20 of its last 22 official games and one of the two setback was against AJAX. FC Basel is a huge name in Switzerland, but I think it’s in for a rude awakening here vs. one of the best home teams in Europe. 

The pick: Note that PSV has won 22 of its last 24 at home outright. Ajax is ripe for the picking now after depleting some of its major resources, which leaves the doors open for PSV to take its place back in the Netherlands. Expect the home side to make the most of this opportunity and lay the reasonable price.

PSV Eindhoven 10* play

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hard-hitting visiting underdog. The Rangers turn to Adrian Sampson, while the Mariners go with Marco Gonzales. This is the opener of a three-game set and after seven straight losses, I look for the Rangers to get untracked tonight. 

The pitchers: Sampson (6-6, 4.92 ERA) has been used mainly in relief this year, but he comes in confident as he’s a solid 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career appearances vs. the M’s. 

Gonzales (10-8, 4.48) is 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA in three appearances vs. the Rangers this season. 

The pick: The good news for Texas is that Seattle’s struggles are even worse, as it enters having lost eight of its last nine. Note that Texas is already 6-2 this year after having lost six or seven of its last eight games, while Seattle is a poor 31-42 vs. right-handed starters this season. 

Texas Rangers

10* play

The set-up: Yesterday’s total blasted well past the posted number, but all signs point to more of a “duel” here in my opinion. The home side turns to Walker Buehler to try and complete the three-game sweep of the impotent Fish, while the visitors counter with rookie Jordan Yamamoto.

The pitchers: Yamomoto (4-0, 1.59 ERA) has not conceded more than two earned runs in any of his outing since he debuted in mid June.

Buehler (8-1, 3.44) has 120 K’s over 110 innings this year and he owns a 3.60 ERA over two career starts vs. Miami. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 already this season as an underdog of +200 or higher, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in 26 of 42 vs. clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

10* TOTAL DOMINATION under.

The set-up: Oakland managed a late win on Saturday afternoon, but I think that Minnesota will bounce back in the finale in front of the home town crowd. The visitors go with Daniel Mengden to toe the rubber, while the home side goes with Michael Pineda. 

The pitchers: Mengden (5-1, 4.21 ERA) has been sharp of late, but he’s struggled in his only start vs. the Twins by posting a 7.94 ERA. 

Pineda (6-5, 4.38) has allowed more than three runs just once time over his 12 starts this year. Pineda has dominated the A’s throughout his career, going 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA over six career starts. 

The pick: After last night’s dramatic come from behind victory, I think the A’s have a predictable letdown here. Lay it.

10* ROCK-STAR Minnesota

The set-up: Gio Gonzalez has been sharp in his limited time for the Brewers, but I think he’ll struggle vs. Zack Greinke and in this difficult road venue. 

The pitchers: Gonzalez (2-1, 3.19 ERA) will make his first start in over eight weeks and I think he’s being thrown to the wolves. 

Greinke (10-4, 2.95) struggled in his first start back from the break, but overall he’s been solid once again this season, especially at home where he’s 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA.

The pick: Note that the D-Backs have now scored 39 runs over their past four games and I expect that offensive trend to continue here in this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

Arizona D-Backs

10* play

The set-up: Jacob deGrom has been his usual dominant self for the Mets of late, but Tyler Beede has for the most part struggled for the Giants this season. These are two hungry teams and I believe this total will sneak over this low number once it’s all said and done.

The pitchers: deGrom (5-7, 3.21 ERA) hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of his past ten starts, going 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA in the process.

Beede (3-3, 5.44) comes in off a strong performance vs. the Brewers on Sunday, allowing three runs off seven hits over seven innings, but as mentioned off the top, overall he’s struggled this year, especially at home where he’s 0-1 with a poor 5.11 ERA. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York has seen the total go over the number in ten of 13 this year as a road favorite of -125 or higher already, while San Francisco has seen the total go over in 16 of 22 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CLINIC on the over Mets/Giants.

The set-up: A couple of hungry veteran hurlers square off against each other in the final game on Thursay night and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard, while the home side counters with Madison Bumgarner. 

The pitchers: Syndergaard (7-4, 4.55 ERA) is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA in six career starts vs. San Francisco. 

Bumgarner (5-7, 3.86) is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA over his last four starts and he’s never lost to the Mets in his career, going 6-0 with a 2.00 ERA over eight times opposed, including 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA in five starts in New York.

The pick: Both teams come in off double-digit victories in their previous outings, with the Mets beating Minnesota 14-4 and the Giants getting the better of Colorado 11-8. The opener of this one though has duel written all over it my opinion. This number is high, play the under. 

9* PITCHERS DUEL

The set-up: Yesterday’s game was rained out so the team’s will play a double-header today. This is a play on the Yankees in the first game. New York has won 11 of its last 16 games. That’s a tall order for Tampa starter Yonny Chirinos to deal with this afternoon. The home side goes with Domingo German. 

The pitchers: Chirinos (8-4, 3.11 ERA) has been solid in a starters role, going 3-3 with a 3.04 ERA over nine straight appearances. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

German (11-2, 3.40) is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.75 ERA over two starts since returning from a hip injury, most recently going six scoreless vs. the Jays on Friday. 

The pick: New York leads the season series 10-5 and I look for the home side to extend that record here in the early game. Lay the price.

10* COACH’S CORNER

The set-up: The Padres fell 12-7 last night, but I think they’ll bounce back in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to dynamic rookie Chris Paddack, while the Fish go with the struggling Trevor Richards.

The pitchers: Paddack (5-4, 2.84 ERA) is 4-3 with a 2.99 ERA in all “night” games this season. 

Richards (3-10, 4.18) comes in on the heels of a five-game losing streak. 

The pick: San Diego is desperate here as it looks to avoid a five-game losing streak. Note as well that the Padres are 12-7 (+8.9 units) in their last 19 after allowing 12 runs or more in their previous contest, while the Fish are still just 5-18 (-10.8 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay it.

SD

The set-up: Lance Lynn leads the league in wins this year and I think he’ll keep the good times rolling in this favorable interleague matchup in front of the home town crowd. The visitors counter with Alex Young.

The pitchers: Young (2-0, 0.68 ERA) has looked great in his limited time, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie, who makes his third career start here. 

Lynn (12-4, 3.69) has won five straight starts, including going eight scoreless in a victory over the Rays on June 28th. Lynn has dominated the D-Backs throughout his career as well, going 6-0 with a 2.80 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. them. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 4-9 (-2.4 units) this year as a road dog of +150 or more, while Texas is 14-6 (+5.9 units) as a home favorite of -110 or higher. I love Lynn in this spot and will lay the price with confidence. 

10*

The set-up: LA is 62-23 this year after its 7-4 win over the Red Sox last night. Philadelphia beat the Nationals 4-3 on Sunday. Zach Eflin gets the call for the home side, while LA hands the ball to Clayton Kershaw. 

The pitchers: Kershaw (7-2, 3.09 ERA) earned a no-decision in his last start, giving up two runs over seven innings vs. the Padres. In 14 regular season starts vs. the Phillies he owns a tiny 2.83 ERA. 

Eflin (7-8, 3.78) got rocked for seven runs over three innings in a 12-6 loss to the Braves in his last start. He’s a poor 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA in four career match ups vs. the Dodgers. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 40-21 already this year following a victory, while Philadelphia is just 10-14 (-6.5 units) vs. southpaws. Look for Kershaw to easily out duel his erratic counterpart.

10* LA DODGERS. 

The set-up: The RedBlacks suffered a humbling 29-14 loss at home to the Blue Bombers last weekend and I believe they’ll take out their frustrations on the very contented Alouettes, who scored the 36-29 upset win at home over the Ti-Cats last time out. Montreal got 203 yards and three rushing TD’s from William Stanback last weekend, but I have a hard time seeing the RB producing the same effort here. Ottawa didn’t help itself last week either by posting 110 penalty yards on ten flags. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Montreal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range, while Ottawa is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 vs. the division. The stage is set for a big bounce back performance for the RedBlacks. Lay the points.

10* COACH’S CLINIC on Ottawa.

The set-up: Neither of these veteran starters can be happy with how they’ve performed this year. Each side comes out rested after the break and I think that “home field” can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup once it’s all said and done. The Pirates hand the ball to Chris Archer, while the Cubs go with Yu Darvish.

The pitchers: Archer (3-6, 5.49 ERA) has only pitched beyond six innings twice this year. 

Darvish (2-4, 5.01) won’t be lacking for motivation here as he’s 0-6 in his career at Wrigley Field. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Pittsburgh is a poor 10-13 this season as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while Chicago is a “lights out” 18-6 (+10.8 units) this year at home as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. Expect the Cubs to continue their dominance in this role to open the second half.

10* COACH’S CORNER Cubs

The set-up: I think the No. 21 ranked Elise Mertens is well worth the price here vs. the No. 54 ranked Barbara Strycova. Mertens advanced by beating Fiona Ferro in straight sets, Monica Niculescu in straight sets and Qiang Wang in three sets. Mertens is a solid 22-15 in 2019 so far, including 7-3 on grass. Strycova advanced by beating all three opponents in two sets (Lesya Tsurenko, Laura Siegmund and Kiki Bertens.) So far Strycova is 16-14 in 2019, including only 6-2 on grass. 

The pick: Mertens road to the fourth round has been more difficult and when these two squared off in New York in the third round back in 2018, she’d go on to dispatch Strycova in straight sets. Look for Mertens to use her experience at this level to take care of Strycova again and lay the price. 

The set-up: Chase Anderson of the Brewers squares off against Joe Musgrove of the Pirates in the final game before the Mid-Summer Classic. Both have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons though, I believe each will get chased early and because of that, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pitchers: Anderson (4-2, 4.31 ERA) is 8-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 16 career outings vs. Pittsburgh. 

Musgrove (6-7, 4.13) is 0-1 with a 7.13 ERA in three career starts vs. the Brewers. 

The pick: Take it for what  you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 29 of its last 49 vs. right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh has seen the total sail over in 30 of 49 this year vs. clubs with winning records. Both teams are hungry for the series victory and everything points to a classic “slug-fest.” Play the over. 

Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates OVER

10* play

The set-up: San Diego improved to 1-1 in this series after last night’s 3-2 win, but I like LA to bounce back in the second to last game before the Mid Summer Classic. The visitors are going with rookie Chris Paddack on the hill, while the home side goes with Kenta Maeda.

The pitchers: Paddack (5-4, 3.05 ERA) has been sharp of late, allowing three runs over his last 11 innings of work. Paddack’s lone start vs. the Dodgers was a “dud” though, allowing six runs over four innings on May 14th. 

Maeda (7-4, 3.78) gave up two earned runs or less in four of five June starts. He’s 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 15 appearances vs. the Padres.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SD is still just 9-12 this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while LA is still 37-10 as a home favorite. I think Paddack struggles again vs. this talented line-up and in this difficult road venue. Lay it.

LA Dodgers

10* play

The set-up: Whoever gets the start for the injured Bo Levi Mitchell, I expect the Stampeders to come out fired up as they look to fill the void of their offensive leader. It’s “next man up” in Calgary this weekend, as it likely turns to Nick Arbuckle to guide the show. Arbuckle helped lead the come-from-behind win over the Lions last weekend, connecting on all nine passes he threw for 93 yards and a TD. But Saskatchewan will be a tough out, as note that the Riders are riding the hot play of QB Cody Fajardo, who had a career-high 430 yards last week vs. Toronto.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Calgary has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 vs. clubs with losing records, while Saskatchewan has seen the total soar over in six of its last eight as a home favorite of seven points or less. This number is a little low.

Calgary Stampeders/Saskatchewan Roughriders OVER

10* play

The set-up: A couple of horrible teams go head to head here. Amazing the Chicago Fire has not won an MLS game away from friendly confines in their last 21 tries. Sporting Kansas City won’t be rolling over either though, as Chicago’s biggest flaw is its defense on the back-end. Kansas City lost its last game to LAFC 5-1 last time out, so defensive play is also a major concern for the home side. 

The pick: Chicago’s all time record on the road at Sporting Kansas City is 8W, 9D, 11L’s, 40 goals for and 40 goals against. I think the stage is set for a higher-scoring “goal-fest” in this one.

Sporting Kansas City/Chicago Fire OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Phillies destroyed the Mets 7-2 last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Noah Syndergaard.

The pitchers: Arrieta (8-6, 4.43 ERA) won his second straight start on Sunday, giving up four runs over six innings to beat the Marlins 13-6. 

Syndergaard (5-4, 4.56) returned from the IL last weekend and he received a no-decision after allowing three runs over five innings vs. the Braves.

The pick: New York has gone 13-23 since May 27th to fall out of contention and its relievers have posted an atrocious 8.01 ERA in that span. Look for Philadelphia to take advantage again.

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in highly motivated in the opener of this series. Colorado comes to town off a 2-4 home stand. Arizona has lost eight straight in this series and would clearly love nothing more than to break that string of futility. The hungry visiting side sends Antonio Senzatela to the hill, while the home side counters with Zack Greinke.

The pitchers: Senzatela (7-5, 4.83 ERA) is 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA in ten career appearances vs. Arizona spanning 42 innings of work. 

Greinke (5-3, 2.90) is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts vs. Colorado this year, allowing 21 hits and striking out 12 over 19 frames of work. 

The pick: Take it or what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go over in 27 of 48 vs. right-handed starters this season and in 22 of 36 vs. the division, while Arizona has seen the total go over in nine of 12 already this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. I think the writing is on the wall and a high-scoring “slug-fest” is in the cards. 

Colorado Rockies/Arizona DBacks OVER

10* play

The set-up: Karolina Muchova beat Madison Brengle in straight sets to advance. So far she’s won all four sets to this point. Her counterpart today is Anett Kontaveit, who I believe will find a way to get the job done here once it’s all said and done. Kontaveit also enters off a straight sets victory over her last opponent Heather Watson. 

The pick: Note that Kontaveit has won three of her last four matches on grass, and I believe the experience she brings to that medium will in fact be the difference maker here. This is also a “revenge” scenario for Kontaveit, as Muchova won the only previous match, which was in this year’s French Open (decided in three sets.) Revenge is a dish best served cold early on Friday morning. Lay the reasonable price.

The set-up: The White Sox swept a double-header yesterday. The visitors turn to Matt Boyd, while the home side goes with Robin Lopez in the series finale Thursday afternoon. 

The pitchers: Boyd (5-6, 3.72 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Rangers on Wednesday, striking out 11. So far he’s 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in one start vs. the White Sox this year. 

Lopez (4-7, 6.12) is 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA in nine career starts vs. Detroit. Note that Lopez has been particularly effective vs. the Tigers this season, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA while striking out 22 over 12 innings. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go under the number in all three games it’s played in this year on the road when the money line is between -100 and -150, while Chicago has seen the total dip under in 21 of 34 vs. the division. I think these two battle deep and this one stays well below the posted number.

Detroit Tigers/Chi. White Sox UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Fabio Fognini is ranked tenth in the World right now, while his counterpart Marton Fucsovics Fognini advanced in four sets over Frances Tiafoe. Fucsovics got by Dennis Novak in four sets to advance. 

The pick: Fognini comes into this one on top form, going 17-11 so far in 2019, including 1-0 on grass (last year he lost in the third round to Jiri Vesely in four sets.) Fucsovics is 18-17 this year and 3-2 on grass (last year Fucsovics lost to Julien Benneteau in the first round in three sets.) These two met in the second round in Vienna back in 2018 and Fucsovics pulled off the three set upset. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Lay the price.

The set-up: Cincinnati is the worst team in the league, but Columbus is only a small notch above it. The Crew come in winless in their last five as well as losing four of those outright. Columbus has lost five straight on the road and it has the least number of scores on the road in the MLS. Real has plenty of issues as well, but it’s still in the hunt for a playoff spot and it definitely can not afford to look past this golden opportunity. And with a game vs. the Red Bulls up next, the home side definitely needs to make the most of this opportunity tonight. 

The pick: Note that 14 of the last 16 victories between the clubs have come for the home team. Additionally take note that the Crew haven’t won in Salt Lake since 2011. Don’t expect that trend of futility to end any time soon. Lay the price.

Real Salt Lake 

10* play

The set-up: I had a play on the Indians last night and I think they carry that momentum over here in another favorable matchup. Cleveland comes in on top form, as it’s now 18-9 since June 1st. Mike Clevinger gets the call for the visitors and Danny Duffy goes for the home side.

The pitchers: Clevinger (1-2, 5.89 ERA) gave up seven earned runs over 1 2/3’s innings vs. Baltimore in his last start. It was his first start back from a lengthy stint on the DL, so I’m not going to read too much into one shaky outing. A date vs. the Royals is just what the doctor ordered as well for Clevinger, as note that he’s 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA in ten appearances vs. them.

Duffy (3-4, 4.43) is 2-10 with a 5.68 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. the Tribe. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is a sharp 16-10 (+3 units) vs. southpaws this year, while KC is a terrible 7-13 (-2.4 units) at home this season as an underdog of +125 or more. I like Clevinger to get back on track with a much better effort and for the Indians to continue their surge at the plate. Lay it.

Cleveland Indians

10* play

The set-up: Elina Svitolina and Margarita Gasparyan meet for the second in their careers in the second round of Wimbledon. Svitolina is ranked 8th in the World currently and has reached as high as No. 3, while Gasparyan is ranked 62nd and has reached as high as only 41st. Svitolina advanced by beating Daria Gavrilova 7-5, 6-0. The powerful Ukrainian has a solid 15-11 win/loss record in 2019. Gasparyan got by Anna-Lena Friedsman 6-4, 6-4 to advance. She is 14-12 this season. 

The pick: It’s revenge time for Svitolina though, who inexplicably lost to Gasparyan 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 in the first round in Birmingham in June. Revenge is a dish best served cold and this time around I expect Svitolina to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Lay the price.

Elina Svitolina

10* play

The set-up: Cleveland comes in focused to this series after losing two of three in Baltimore over the weekend. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the sheer talent discrepancy on the mound and at the plate absolutely justifies in laying this larger road price. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Bauer, while the home side counter with Jakob Junis.

The pitchers: Bauer (6-6, 3.55 ERA) is 4-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 15 career appearances vs. the Royals. 

Junis (4-7, 5.23) took the loss in Cleveland last week, getting shelled for four runs off nine hits, including two home runs (Junis is now 2-3 with a 5.89 ERA in eight appearances lifetime vs. Cleveland.) 

The pick: I’m giving a big nod to the Tribe at the plate and a big nod to the Indians on the mound and with those two crucial factors clearly working in their favor, I expect them to make the most of this favorable spot. Lay it.

Cleveland Indians

10* play

The set-up: Toronto won two in a row in the pre-season and then it had a Week 1 “bye.” Last weekend it lost its early momentum and looked flat in the embarrassing 64-14 home loss to the red hot Ti-Cats. With that awkward game out of the way, I believe the hungry visitors keep tonight’s contest much more competitive. Saskatchewan won’t be lacking for motivation either after back-to-back losses to open the 2019 campaign. 

The pick: The Riders looked decent in their 44-41 loss at Ottawa, as Cody Fajardo was 27 of 34 in the setback. However, I think the home side gets caught “looking past” the lowly and desperate visiting side. Note as well that Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a loss by 40 points or more, while Saskatchewan is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous outings. Grab the points.

Toronto Argonauts 

10* play

The set-up: It’s Canada Day and I think the home side is going to ride the wave of emotion to a solid victory North of the border this afternoon. The Royals overcame a 5-1 hole to win 7-6 yesterday, but I expect the Jays to respond here. The visitors hand the ball to Glenn Sparkman, while the home side goes with Clayton Richard.

The pitchers: Sparkman (2-3, 4.07 ERA) gave up three home runs and five runs in all over five innings in a loss to the Indians in his last start. 

Richard (0-4, 6.89) will look to get off the schneid vs. a team he’s had plenty of success against in the past, going 2-2 with a 3.95 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Royals. 

The pick: Before Sunday’s win the Royals had lost five in a row at the Rogers Centre. Expect that trend to continue here vs. the hungry home side. All things considered, a very fair price in my opinion. 

Toronto Blue Jays

Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: Portland will be desperate here after winning just five games this season, including losing two of its last three. Portland though has only played two games at home this year, which has definitely attributed to its poor win/loss record. FC Dallas has taken a step back from last year, currently sitting in fourth place with 26 points. 

The pick: FC Dallas though has gone winless in its last four on the road and I think it’s going to have difficulties vs. this focused Portland side. The Timbers play with revenge here after the reverse fixture ended 2-1. Portland now has a long stretch of home games and I expect it to get things started off on the “right foot.” All things considered, a very fair price.

Portland Timbers

10* play

The set-up: Houston won 2-1 on Friday and 6-5 on Saturday. Suffice it to say I’m expecting a much more decisive victory in the finale, as Houston keeps the foot on the gas after a scuffling stretch. The home side goes with Gerrit Cole, while the visitors go with Marco Gonzales.

The pitchers: Cole (7-5, 3.42 ERA) is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA over five June starts and he’s 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA over six career outings vs. the M’s, including a 3-2 win on April 14th in which he posted 11 strikeouts. 

Gonzales (9-6, 4.34) has been hit or miss all year, looking unbelievable for stretches and downright terrible in others. Note that he’s 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA in five career appearances vs. the Astros. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 11-20 (-8.8 units) this year in all “day” games, while Houston is 6-1 at home as a favorite in the -250 to -330 range. Lay the 1.5 runs and expect a lop-sided destruction from start to finish.

Houston Astros -1.5

10* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the Diamondbacks hand the ball to the steady Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with the erratic Drew Pomeranz. I feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this price on the road favorite.

The pitchers: Greinke (8-3, 3.08 ERA) has never lost in San Fran, going 5-0 with a 1.37 ERA (overall he’s 12-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 19 career starts vs. the Giants.) 

Pomeranz (2-8, 6.79) is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in ten career games vs. Arizona.

The pick: The Giants earned a victory in the series opener last night, but they’re still just 1-5 in this series at home this season. Greinke owns a .289 batting average vs. the Giants as well. This one has “blowout” written all over it - lay it!

10* COACH’S CORNER

The set-up: This is a battle for a spot in the 2019 Women’s World Cup semifinal. Germany advanced by knocking out Nigerian in the Round of 16, while Sweden got by Canada. Germany looks as strong as ever and has made the semifinals in every Women’s World Cup there’s ever been. Sweden has looked susceptible already at times in this tournament, especially on the attacking end. 

The pick: The Germans have so far kept a clean sheet throughout this tournament, which clearly doesn’t bode well for this “on again, off again” Swedish offensive attack (has scored just one goal over the last two games.) In fact Sweden only has five total shots on goal over the last two games. The Germans look like a team of destiny and I believe their shutout streak continues with another dominant effort on both ends of the pitch. Lay the reasonable mid-sized price and expect a blowout.

Germany

10* play

The set-up: Hamllton broke out for a 50 point win over the hapless Argos last week, but I think it has a bit of a letdown in Week 3. In all the Ti-Cats wracked up 604 total yards of offense, including three TD’s from Bralon Addison. Note that this is the first game of a back-to-back home and home series between the clubs, and as such, I’m expecting much more of a defensive affair on Friday night. It’s interesting to note that Hamilton has won four of the last five in this series and in those four victories, they’ve allowed an average of 10.5 points per game (42 in total.) Montreal won’t be rolling over either, as it comes out of its bye week after a Week 1 loss to the Eskimos. Of concern for Montreal fans is that starting QB Antonio Pipkin suffered a knee injury in the loss and he’s expect to miss 4 to 6 weeks. That means that Vernon Adams Jr. is now thrust into the spotlight for the Als. 

The pick: The pressure is on Montreal to step up defensively with its No. 1 QB sidelined with injury. There’s no way the visitors can turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying home side. So with Montreal trying to control the pace of this one from the outset, I do indeed expect this total to sneak below this sky-high number once it’s all said and done.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats/Montreal Allouetes UNDER

10* play

The set-up: Philadelphia comes in off a four-game sweep of the Mets and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Phillies won’t be taking anything for granted here either after the Marlins swept them in a three-game series earlier in the month. Philadelphia hands the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Elieser Hernandez.

The pitchers: Velasquez (2-4, 4.40 ERA) has made two straight appearances as a starter, including last weekend when he faced Miami, giving up just one run over five frames of work. 

Hernandez (0-2, 4.34) has gone 0-7 with a 4.54 ERA in nine starts between 2018 and 2019. 

The pick: Velasquez owns a 2.90 ERA in 12 career starts vs. the Marlins and a 1.64 ERA in two starts at Miami. Hernandez has a 5.40 ERA in three games vs. Philadelphia. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the visitors.

10* Phillies

The set-up: Both teams are playing well right now, but I think that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Oakland comes in off two game sweep of St. Louis, while the Angels took two games from the Reds. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Tanner Anderson, while the home side goes with Griffin Canning.

The pitchers: Anderson (0-2, 4.20 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over three innings in a 5-3 loss to Tampa on Friday. He’s been unremarkable over three starts this year.

Canning (2-4, 3.88) faces the A’s for a third time this month, going six frames in both outings so far (gave up one run on May 29th, before allowing four runs earlier this month.) 

The pick: I think the A’s take a step back in the opener of this series and in this difficult road venue. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF WEEK ANGELS

The set-up: Suffice it to say, after last night’s meltdown in the ninth inning, I look for the Tribe to bounce back in this favorable spot on Wednesday afternoon. Previous to last night’s victory, the Royals had lost seven straight in this series. The home side hands the ball to Trevor Bauer, while the visitors go with Jakob Junis.

The pitchers: Junis (4-6, 5.18 ERA) has looked better of late after a horrible start to the 2019 campaign, but when he faced the Indians on April 14th he was shelled for five runs off eight hits over six innings (overall he’s 2-2 with a 5.87 ERA in seven career match ups with the Indians.) 

Bauer (5-6, 3.69) comes in off a terrible outing vs. the Tigers on Friday, but he owns a sharp 3.01 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. the Royals.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC is still just 8-18 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Cleveland is 12-5 as a home fav in the -150 to -200 range. I’m laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price and expecting a decisive rout from start to finish.

Cleveland Indians (-1.5)

10* play

The set-up: The Cards are 4-3 with two games to go on their home stand and they hand the ball to Jack Flaherty, while the A’s counter with Chris Bassitt.

The pitchers: Bassitt (4-3, 3.64 ERA) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up two runs over 5 2/3’s innings in a win over the lowly Orioles last time out. Previous to that though he’d posted a 5.88 ERA over six outings.

Flaherty (4-4, 4.24) gave up three runs over seven innings while striking out eight and walking one in an unfortunate loss to Miami last time out. 

The pick: Oakland is just 3-6 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while St. Louis is 21-10 in its last 31 following a loss. Lay the price.

10* CARDS.

The set-up: Both of these teams got out to blistering starts to the 2019 season, but each comes in having floundered of late. Both Kyle Gibson of the Twins and Blake Snell of the Rays were crushed in their last starts, but I still give the nod to Gibson in front of the home town crowd today. 

The pitchers: Snell (4-6, 4.40 ERA) gave up six runs and posted one out over one inning of work in a loss to the Yankees last time out. 

Gibson (7-4, 4.18) gave up six runs over 4 1/3’s innings in a 9-4 loss to Boston last time out. 

The pick: Note that Tampa was outscored 33-15 in the first six games of its road trip before busting out for 15 hits on Sunday. Suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into a single decent performance at the plate for the struggling Rays. The Twins have been scuffling of late, but they still have an eight-game lead over the Tribe. Look for Gibson to get back on track in friendly confines.

10* Twins.

The set-up: Boston lost two of three to the Jays over the weekend, meaning it won’t be taking anything for granted here vs. the lowly White Sox. I think the home side comes in focused on the task at hand and I look for it to deliver the goods once it’s all said and done. The White Sox go with Lucas Giolto, while the home side goes with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Giolito (10-2, 2.74 ERA) is 0-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his career vs. the Red Sox, earning a no-decision vs. Boston on May 2nd, allowing three runs off seven hits over five frames.

Rodriguez (8-4, 4.71) leads the teams in win after giving up four runs with nine K’s in a win over the Twins on Wednesday. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four career starts vs. the White Sox.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the White Sox are still a terrible 11-17 this year vs. clubs with winning records, while the Red Sox are 24-12 vs. teams with losing records. Giolito is starting to show signs of slowing down after his torrid start, which doesn’t bode well facing this now hungry and focused Boston team. Lay the price.

Boston Red Sox

10* play

The set-up: The Cards come in off a 4-2 win over ex-teammate Albert Pujols and the visiting Angels and I think they’ll build off that victory in the finale of this interleague series. So far the Angels have been shutdown in this series by the Cards and I expect that trend to continue. LA goes with Tyler Skaggs, while the home side goes with Miles Mikolas.

The pitchers: Skaggs (6-6, 4.61 ERA) has looked much better of late and he most recently gave up one run over seven innings to the Jays in his last outing. 

Mikolas (5-7, 4.48) won’t be lacking for motivation here after his terrible start to the 2019 campaign. Mikolas though comes in off his best start of the year, going six shutout innings in a 5-0 win over the Marlins on Monday. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is already 5-9 (-3.9 units) this season after scoring two runs or less in its previous contest, while St. Louis is now a remarkable 13-3 (+8.8 units) this year at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. This is a difficult interleague matchup for LA and I think St. Louis delivers the clean sweep on National TV. Lay the price and expect a blowout.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH

The set-up: The Orioles losing streak extended to ten games in last night’s 10-9 setback and I believe that streak of futility continues here. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner, while the home side counters with Gerson Bautista, who will start the first inning before making way for veteran Tommy Milone. 

The pitchers: Cashner (6-3, 4.48 ERA) is just 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA in 11 outings vs. the Mariners. 

Bautista (0-1, 9.00) will quickly make way for Milone (2-1, 2.23) in six career appearances vs. Baltimore. 

The pick: Baltimore is still without the services of top slugger Trey Mancini, who suffered an elbow injury on Wednesday. That doesn’t bode well facing Milone, who has given up just five runs over his last 18 innings of work, striking out 13 and walking only one in that span. I think Seattle’s approach with Bautista as an opener, followed by the red hot Milone will be too much for the struggling visiting side to overcome today. Lay the price.

Seattle Mariners

10* play

The set-up: Trevor Bauer has been decent of late for the Indians, but Matt Boyd has taken a step back tho season after a strong 2018. For a number of different reasons, I think this number is too low. 

The pitchers: Boyd (5-5, 3.35 ERA) comes in off his worst start of the year, getting shelled for five runs over four innings in a 7-3 loss to the impotent Royals.

Bauer (5-6, 3.41) comes in off his first complete-game shutout of his career over these very Tigers last Sunday. Clearly the visitors will be out to atone for that setback (note that Bauer hadn’t been credited with a win before that since April 30th.) Note as well that Bauer owns a 5.17 ERA lifetime vs. the Tigers in 18 career appearances still. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. This number is a little low.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CLINIC over Tigers/Indians

The set-up: New York is rolling and it’ll be out to avenge itself after getting swept by the Astros in April. The Yanks come in having won five straight, while Houston enters on the other end of the spectrum with four straight losses, having scored just seven runs during the stretch of futility. Framber Valdez gets the nod for the visitors, while Chad Green gets the call on the mound for the home side. 

The pitchers: Valdez (3-2, 2.77 ERA) makes his third start of the season today and while he’s been decent to this point, I think he’s going to be in over his head here in this difficult road venue.

Green (1-2, 7.54) owns a 3.53 ERA in the opener role.

The pick: I think these starters are evenly matched, but note that Houston is just 1-4 this year as an underdog, while New York is 12-2 at home this season as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range. Lay the price.

10* PLAY

The set-up: Lucas Giolito has been superb for the White Sox this year, but all good things must come to an end. The Cubs’ Jon Lester has has an up and down start to 2019, but I think he’ll settle down here in front of the home town crowd. 

The pitchers: Giolito (10-1, 2.22 ERA) has been on absolute fire this year and its difficult to say anything negative about him at all. I simply feel that his early numbers are unsustainable and regression is imminent. Also note that he’s just 1-1 with a ballooned 5.84 ERA in two career starts vs. the Cubs. 

Lester (5-5, 4.08) has struggled of late, but he’ll look to bounce back against a team he’s had plenty of success against, going 9-6 with a 3.99 ERA over 17 career games vs. the White Sox. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the White Sox are just 5-8 as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range this year, while the Cubs are 21-9 as a home favorite. Look for The Friendly Confines to ruin Giolito’s hot run. Lay the price.

Chicago Cubs

10* play

The set-up: Giancarlo Stanton is finally being activated from the IL for the Yanks in the opener of this three-game series and I believe the slugger will pay immediate dividends for the Yanks. Edwin Encarnacion was 0 for 4 for New York yesterday, but with that awkward debut out of the way, he should settle down here as well. The Evil Empire is getting healthier and I expect that momentum to translate into a solid victory tonight. The home side hands the ball to the surging JA Happ, while the visitors counter with Ryne Stanek. 

The pitchers: Stanek (0-1, 2.45 ERA) is being forced into a starters roll out of necessity, a position in which he’s been pretty pedestrian in (note that he has a 4.60 ERA in 15 appearances vs. the Yanks.) 

Happ (6-3, 4.66) is starting on four days rest here as he tries to post a sixth straight win, going 5-0 with a 4.38 ERA over his last seven starts. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but despite their early great play the Rays are still a money-burning 12-12 (-2.6 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. Conversely note that New York is 17-9 (+8.3 units) in the same position. Lay the price with confidence. 

NY Yankees

10* play

The set-up: The Braves are surging right now and I believe that trend carries over for at least one more game. Atlanta is 6-1 during its current home stand. Overall the Braves have won nine of their last ten, including a 15-1 blowout vs. the Phillies on Sunday. New York’s moving in the opposite direction, most recently dropping three of four to the Cards over the weekend, going 5-5 in its last ten. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Wheeler, while the home side goes with rookie Mike Soroka.

The pitchers: Wheeler (5-4, 4.87 ERA) was blasted for nine runs off ten hits over 4 2/3’s innings in a loss to the Yankees in his last start. 

Soroka (7-1, 1.92) enters off his worst start of the year, giving up five runs over five innings to the Pirates, but outings like that have truly been few and far between this season and note that he’s already 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA in 12 1/3’s innings vs. the Mets this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 1-9 (-7.6 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Atlanta is 14-6 (+4 units) as a favorite of -150 or higher. Lay the price with confidence. 

Atlanta Braves (vs. NY Mets)

10* play

The set-up: This is the final group match for each side, and each is looking to advance to the round of 16. A win or even a draw would likely do it for either. Spain comes in off a tough 1-0 loss to German, while China enters off a victory over South Africa by 1-0.

The pick: Germany was a difficult match-up for Spain, but it has no excuses here. The Spaniards are filled with talent (keep your eye on Jennifer Hermoso) and I think it’ll be too much for China to contend with. China managed the 1-0 victory against lowly South Africa, but goals have been at a premium for the Chinese this tournament, which doesn’t bode well facing the stingy Spaniards. All things considered, a great price.

Spain (vs. China)

Analysis to come. 10* play

The set-up: BC acquired the biggest free agent on the market in the offseason in QB Mike Reilly, who returns to his former team. Reilly signed a large four year contract and the Grey Cup Champion and ex MVP will be expected to step up quickly and pay immediate dividends. The Blue Bombers have fared well vs. the Lions ATS over the last few seasons, but QB Matt Nichols is coming off a poor 2018 in which he had just one three-hundred yard game. Nichols will be leaning heavily upon the CFL’s leading rusher Andrew Harris. 

The pick: These teams are no strangers to each other obviously, but I think that Reilly is the difference maker on opening night. The Leo’s hit the road for three straight after this and I think they put the foot on the gas and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

BC Lions (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: After a 2-4 start, the New York Liberty come in on top form having won two straight. Overall the Liberty have averaged 79.7 PPG, while allowing 82. Tina Charles leads the nightly charge with 21.3 points and 9.2 boards per game. Las Vegas has been sliding of late and has fallen back under .500. On the year the Aces average 82.2 PPG and concede 78.6. Kayla McBride leads Las Vegas with 17.2 points and five boards per game. These teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and I believe those trends continue here. Outright win? Unlikely. But I think this will be much more competitive that what this spread would suggest.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Liberty are 5-0 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest, while the Aces are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss. New York just beat the Aces at home as a ten point dog (allowed just 35.4 percent shooting in that one.) No ATS revenge today for the home side, grab as many points as you can.

10* GAME OF WEEK LIBERTY

The set-up: After a hot 13-2 start, Seattle has been one of the worst teams in the entire league ever since. Marco Gonzales (6-6, 4.77 ERA) opened the season 5-0 with a 2.80 ERA for the M’s, before losing his next six decisions. Gonzalez finally got off the schneid with a decent effort vs. the Angels last time out, but I still think he’s in over his head here. Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.57) gets the nod for the home side and he’s given up three runs or less in eight of his nine outings this year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 4-17 in its last 21 road games vs. teams with winning home records and a poor 3-13 in its last 16 road games vs. right-handed starters, while the A’s are a sharp 9-3 in their last 12 during Game 1 of a series. I’m banking on Bassitt getting the better of the “on again, off again” Gonzales and for the A’s to take full advantage. Lay the price.

*10*

The set-up: I have to admit, I was shocked that Toronto took both Game’s 3 and 4 in Golden State. Toronto had a big opportunity to end this series, but in failing to do so in Game 5, the Warriors now have renewed hope and they have to be feeling pretty confident with Game 6 at home, despite dropping the previous two and not having KD in the line-up. The Raptors are in unchartered territory right now and I think the veteran defending champs extend this series one more game. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is just 9-13 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 2-6 ATS this season in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Golden State is a perfect 3-0 ATS the L2 years when facing elimination and 12-8 ATS in its last 20 following a win by six points or less. For all the reasons listed above, play: Golden State Warriors (vs. Toronto Raptors) Moneyline

10* play