One team is chasing the leaders in baseball’s toughest division while the other leads the weakest division.  The Rays will be hungry after dropping a close one Tuesday night to the Twins.  Both probable starters have had troubled seasons and are trying to reestablish themselves in their rotations.  Bradley for the Rays was recalled September 3rd.  In his two starts he doesn’t have a decision, but his team won both games and his ERA is a respectable 3.98.  Lefthander Keuchel for the Twins has only been back in the majors since August 6th after being let go in early September/22 by the Rangers.  His starts have been uneven, but he has managed to stick around.  In his last three his ERA is 4.30.

Keuchel will be in tough against the Rays as they have hit lefties hard this season with the 9th best average and the 10th best OPS against LHP.  The Rays are 21-8 against LH starters this season. 

The Rays have a +1 run/ 9 innings differential vs. LH and a +2 run/9 innings differential over their last 7 games.  It should prove to be a long night for Keuchel even though he only averages 4 innings pitched over his last 5 starts.  All of Bradley’s last 5 starts have been 5 innings or longer except for one.  Go with the Rays on this one.

The Dodgers are better than the Padres overall, better at home than the Padres on the road, marginally better at the plate over the last 15 days, have a superior bullpen and their runs/ 9 innings differential is also superior. 

What they don’t have is a superior probable starter for late Tuesday night.  Probable starter Wacha for the Padres is having an outstanding season even though his club has failed to meet expectations.  He has a 2.99 ERA (2.00 over the last 5 games), an 11-3 record (3-1 over the last 5 games) and a 1.17 WHIP.  Lynn, the probable starter for the Dodgers has a 6.06 ERA (10.80 over the last 3 games), a 10-11 record (2-2 over the last 5 games) and a 1.46 WHIP.  Furthermore, Wacha has a 3.65 ERA in his road starts while Lynn has a 5.86 ERA in his home starts. 

Even though the Dodgers bullpen has more quality the game will be over by the time it comes into play and the Padres bullpen is good enough to hold the fort after the starters have left the mound.  Take the runs and the Padres for the win. 

These two teams were two of the first to be eliminated from the post-season and are wallowing down at the bottom of the standings, doing what they can to make it to the end and set themselves up for next season.  Who would have thought we would find such value in a couple of dumpster fire seasons. 

In their last three head-to-head they have totals of 10, 13 and 13.   Tuesday’s probable starters, Singer for the Royals and Cease for the White Sox started that middle 13 total.  In Cease’s last two starts he has totals of 13 and 15.  Cease had an ERA of 8.07 in August and is at 6.05 in September.  Singer has an ERA of 6.43 for his last 5 starts.

The available bullpens both have ERAs north of 5.50. 

The Royals have averaged 5.0 runs against/ 9 innings and the White Sox have averaged 4.5 runs against/9 innings over their last 7 seven games. 

All these numbers add up to totals well over 9 for this game.  Take the over and enjoy an early high event game.

The Cubs are highly favored on Monday, but off a critical series loss to the D-backs, this is a must-win game.  Chicago has had much superior starting pitching lately, including Monday's starter, rookie lefty Jordan Wicks.  Wicks, a former first rounder has been terrific in his first three starts, pitching for at least 5 innings (6.2 last time out), and giving up  just 4 runs total over 16+ innings.  He will face Freedland, another lefty, who is off a decent start, but whose August stats have not been impressive; 1-3 with a 6.49 ERA and a .324 OP BA.  .Rockies are checking in at 29th in offense (.228/.649) while the Cubs are positively rocking it by comparison, way up in the 16th spot.  The runs for and against record tells the story; Chicago is 6.1/3.9 in their last 7 games while the Rockies 4.6/7.1.  I'll take the hot rookie starter and a very motivated Cubs team to win on the road.

The Rangers' free fall in recent weeks (3-6 in Sept.) has been aided by some very poor pitching from starters  (8.22 ERA) and relievers (7.01 ERA) alike.  Today's starter Dunning had a fine first half, but his latest starts have been short and sub-par.  He was shelled in his last game and has allowed five home runs in his last two games.  Bichette, Toronto's recently returned spark plug, has been a particular thorn in his side with  .455/3 HR/5 RBI's in 11 AB's. Jays' starter Bassitt, a fine pickup for the Jays this year, has been especially good in recent starts.  He has a pair of 8 inning appearances allowing just 0 and 1 run in his last two starts.  
The Blue Jays' pen has been one of the best in the league this season.  Now 7-2, The Jays have been beating up on the league's small fry lately.  They are third in offense over the last two weeks, hitting .293 BA, and .866 OPS.  The Rangers' bat have cooled off during their swoon, falling to 16th at .239/.754. The Jays are still in the running for a wildcard spot.  Texas at the moment is on the outside looking in.  I am on the Jays today.  Look for the veteran Bassitt to continue to deliver with the Jays winning at home today.

The Seahawks, off a fine training camp, face the Rams, without Cupp at home.  The Seahawks are a young Carroll-lead team who essentially rebuilt the defense, especially vs the run, their Achilles heel last year. Look for much improved performance on D with another season under the belt for last year's rookies , plus additions including a Bobby Wagner reunite.  Geno Smith impressed last year, especially in the early season.  While I am not as big on Smith as many seem to be, he has fine targets, including a potentially great rookie as a third WR.  With Walker playing and Charbonnet, we could see more of a run game from the Seahawks this season.  The Rams defense is centered on Donald, but after him, it is very much depleted.  This is a team that gave up 41 points to the Broncos in an albeit meaningless preseason game last week.  Stafford, when he played last year, was lost without Cupp.  The Rams' best bet will be to test the new Seahawks run defense, but I don't see them putting up many points on Sunday.  Look for Seattle, at home, to win and cover easily.

The Cardinals in absolute rebuild mode, are without their starting QB, did not add to last year's dismal pass defense, and have 11 rookies on the roster.  Dobbs will likely start under center, so expect a run-focused offense from the Cardinals.  Meanwhile the Commanders have a sold out opener,  3 straight victories in preseason, if you are counting, and a projected very tough defense.  Washington doesn't yet know what they have in Howell but the 2nd year pro is very mobile  at least, and he has great targets, especially if McLaurin is playing.  At their best last year, the Commanders ground out wins with a relentless rush offense, but very little dynamism in the air. Howell, while remaining a question mark,  looks to be an improvement.  The Commanders' defense especially  the pass rush will over-match the Cardinal' shaky offense on Sunday.  Take Washington, with the crowd, to win and cover.

Texas beat Rice 37-10 in its opener last week. Last year the Longhorns went 8-5 overall, including just 2-2 on the road. Texas though is favored to win the Big 12 conference title this season. The Crimson Tide enter 1-0 as well after handling MTSU last week. Alabama is predicted to finish second to Georgia in the SEC this year. That said, Bama was 11-2 last year, including 7-0 at home. This is obviously a huge game, as this is the type of victory that will really help the resume at the end of the year when it comes to the CFP. I just think that Quinn Ewers will have some opportunities to keep his team competitive throughout. The defense will be better this year than last as well with the majority of the unit returning which finished second overall in the Big 12 last year. QB Jalen Milroe has big shoes to fill for the Tide. He had 242 yards and five TD's last week. The defense is once again a strength as well, but there's still some question marks surrounding this year's version of the Tide. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I think this one "comes down to the wire." Grab the points and Texas.

The Aggies are 1-1, while Liberty is 1-0. Last year New Mexico State was 7-6, while the Flames finished 8-5. 

The Aggies are coming off a 58-21 win over Western Illinois, and I think they can carry that momentum over here. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to a tight battle here in my opinion (they had 438 yards of offense in the second half alone!) Diego Pavia had 317 yards passing and two TD's. 

Liberty managed the 34-24 win over Bowling Green, but I believe it'll have a much harder time containing the visiting side today. QB Kaidon Salter finished with 143 yards passing and two TD's. 

The Flames had five INT's, but everything points to a much more competitive affair here between conference opponents. 

New Mexico State won this game 49-14 last year. I'm not calling for the outright as I said, but I'm definitely grabbing the points!

Two fine starters face each other when the D-backs meet the Cubs in Chicago on Saturday. We may not see much of either bullpen as these two pitchers can throw for length as well as success. Steele has been rock solid this season but especially when pitching at home, where he is 12-2. What has he done lately? Just 14 innings pitched, zero runs allowed and twenty K's in his last two starts. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has been almost as good lately, but if I have to nit-pick, his ERA is about a run worse on the road and he has not been quite as effective in day games. The Cubs have an edge on offense lately, but really, this game is all about the starters. A Wildcard spot could be at stake, and the Cubs, after a pair of losses to the D-backs, with be just a bit hungrier. It is hard to argue with Steele at home. Take the Cubs to win a close one.

Purdue got upset by Fresno State last weekend, and I think it'll struggle again here on the road in this difficult venue. 

Virginia Tech beat ODU 36-17 and in my opinion, the Hokies are going to move to 2-0 after this contest. 

But the Boilermakers were just a complete mess, losing the battle of the clock by 13 minutes, while going just 3 of 12 on third down. QB Hudson Card was inept, averaging just 3.6 yards on 30 attempts.

VT QB Grant Wells had three passing TDs and one running TD last week, and I believe he'll be a difference-maker this weekend. 

Not only do I expect VT to win this game, but I believe it'll do so in blowout fashion.

The Utah Utes are 1-0 after Week 1, while the Baylor Bears are 0-1. 

The Bears were stunned by Texas State, while Utah pulled away for a victory over Miami. 

Utah QB Cameron Rising did not play in last week's 24-11 home win. Bryson Barnes was adequate in filling in, finishing with 159 yards and a TD. The ground game managed only 105 rushing yards.

The defense looked good, and last year the unit allowed 24 points. 

Baylor though will be pushing the pace of this one from the outset after the 42-31 ssetback to Texas State. QB Blake Shapen was inured, meaning that QB Sawyer Robertson will now get the start here. He'll be leaning heavily on the run game and Richard Reese, who averaged 4.9 YPC last season. Baylor's defense was also decent last year, ranked 80th overall in the country by allowing 26.6 PPG. 

I think we'll see a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is Baylor.

The 4-2 Mets are on the road against a tough home side in the Twins. Both have winning records in September and both are hitting well over the last two weeks. While NY is definitely the inferior team this year, they have Senga on the mound on Friday and that counts for a lot. He has eliminated many of the walks that plagued him early, pitches for length (+6 innings /start) and strikes out a ton. He will face Keuchel who has 3 of 5 quality starts since returning in August. When Keuchel is off, as he was last time out, the sky is the limit as far as runs allowed go. Based on past performance, he is a hard pitcher to have much faith in. The Twins strike out more than any other team, and Senga has 22 K's in his last two starts. Minnesota has never faced him before. I like the Mets' chances, especially early, however their bullpen has been equal to the Twins' of late. They haven't been the best road team this year, but a much superior starter will aid the Mets to steal the first game of the series on the road.

The Padres are finally getting their money's worth out of lefty Blake Snell. A Cy Young candidate this season, he is 5-1 with an ERA of 2.20 in his last seven starts. And he's getting decent run support as well. Neither August nor September has been kind to right hander Hunter Brown. He had some very solid starts early in the season, but his ERA has climbed to 6.00 with an OP BA approaching .300 in the last two months. The Astros are not as good at home as one might expect, barely over .500, and are 3-3 in September. They are tops in the league in OPS over the past couple of weeks. The Padres are 4-2 in September, and while a disappointment on offense this year, have crept into the top ten at .265/.766 in the last two weeks. Brown has pitched a lot of innings for a youngster this year, and had been much less effective in Houston. Snell is as dependable at it gets. Take the Padres, a small underdog to win on the road today.

Both teams enter 1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS. Illinois is coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo, while Kansas defeated Missouri State 48-17. Illinois was a 7-point favorite, while the Jayhawks were 32.5-point favorites. Illinois had the nation's No. 1 defense last year, but the unit just conceded 28 to Toledo, but we can expect a more solid performance this time around. Illinois had a lot of turnover, but with that first game out of the way, combined with a win, I think they keep the momentum rolling here. Luke Altmyer finished with 211 yards and two TD's. Jalon Daniels sat out last week, but he's expected back in the lineup for the Jayhawks this week, but he'll need time to adjust. Defense is an issue for the Jayhawks, last year they allowed 35.5 PPG, worst in the Big 12. While I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

The Chiefs have now won the Super Bowl in two out of the last four years and I think they carry over that momentum here on Opening night. The Lions took a big step forward last year and the expectations could not be higher in Detroit. 

Of these two teams though, it's the Lions that I feel could suffer a big letdown this year. 

There are still plenty of question marks about this Detroit defense, and despite Patrick Mahomes having some new faces in his offense, I just can't see the Chiefs floundering here on Opening Night. In fact, I expect the opposite, as they look to run up the score early and take control of this one from the "get go." 

With back-to-back home games after this vs. Seattle and Atlanta, I say Detroit gets caught looking ahead. 

Lay the points, the play is KC.

The D-backs are  just 4-6, with pitching woes.  Ryne Nelson was just reactivated after a pair of very poor starts in early August sent him back to the minors.  He can struggle in the early innings and gave up far too many HRs in July and August.  He will face a hot Cubs' starter in Assad.  He is off his best and longest outing since converting to starting in August, pitching 8 innings of shutout ball.  Assad held the opposition to a .198 BA last month.  The 6-4 Cubs are holding down a wild card spot at the moment.  They are a good home team and tough against right handers.  Chicago has a very healthy run differential lately, and a solid bullpen.  The D-back as of Wednesday AM are just 2.7/5.4 in runs for and against.  Arizona is very short on starting pitching, hence the Nelson call-up.  They've had too many short outings from their starters, resulting in bullpen overload.  Take Assad and the Cubs to win the opener.  Chicago on the run line at -1.5.

These two clubs have been involved in some high scoring games in September.  The Twins have been in 4 straight games where the total has gone over.  The Guardians are over for 3 of their last 4 games.  And I really mean over.  The Twins last 4 have averaged a total of 16 runs/game.  The Guardians last 4 have averaged a total of 14.5 runs/game. 

Maybe the probable starters for these two teams will be different though.  Not so fast.  In his last nine starts, Ryan for the Twins has seen 8 out of 9 go over.  And Williams for the Guardians has a 6.97 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

In their last 7 games the Twins have averaged 7.6 runs for/ 9 innings, while the Guardians have averaged 6.9 runs against/ 9 innings.  That makes a total that sure looks like an over.  Or you could use the 5.0 runs against/9 innings the Twins have averaged over their last 7 and the 4.7 runs for/9 innings the Guardians have averaged, and you will still get an awfully over looking total.  Take the over and start counting runs.

The Jays’ playoff hopes are hanging on for dear life over this nine-game stretch against bottom feeders.  So far, they are 4-1 and they need this next game (and the next 3 after that). 

Although his last start was good, probable starter Sears for the A’s had an 8.25 ERA and 2.13 WHIP for August.  Probable starter Ryu has been rounding back into form since his return to action August 1st.  His August ERA was 2.25 and his WHIP was 1.00.  And after he finishes his consistent 5 innings his bullpen has a solid roster of next-man-up relievers that have been outstanding for the Jays this season.

At the plate the Jays are in the top fifth of the majors against lefthanders and over the last 15 days in avg. and OPS.  The A’s are in the bottom fifth of the majors in both instances.  They are also 8-22 as a home dawg this season.  Lay the runs and take the Blue Jays on this one.

The Blue Jays’ probable starting pitcher, Bassitt, is really peaking at the right time as the Jays make their final push.  In his last three starts his ERA is down to 2.75 and his WHIP is a miniscule 0.86.  In the other clubhouse, probable starter, Waldichuk, moved back into the rotation July 9th after a stint in the bullpen.  There have been mixed results as he, along with his team have struggled.  In his last three starts his ERA is 4.91 and his WHIP is 1.38.  His biggest problem is going to be facing a Jays’ batting order that has feasted on LH starters this season with the 3rd best avg. and the 8th best OPS.  In the last 15 days the Jays have continued to be hot as they are in the top ¼ of the majors in avg. and OPS while the A’s are in the bottom ½ of the majors.  But against RHP the A’s are dead last in the majors.

With a 7-20 record against teams with a winning record in the last ½ of the season and an 8-21 record as a home dawg don’t look for success in this one vs. the Jays.  Lay the runs and go with the Jays.

It is not often that I find all of my key indicators so clearly pointing in one direction.  Probable starter Kremer has been hot for the Orioles in his last 5 starts with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.  Probable starter Detmer for the Angels has not been hot with his lone decision in his last 5 starts coming against the struggling Rangers. 

The available bullpen for the Orioles has a combined 3.11 ERA while the Angels have a 4.76 ERA  available.

This dominance continues at the plate with the Orioles sporting the 5th best avg. and the 9th best OPS over the last 15 days in the majors.  Over the same time frame the Angels have the 21st best avg. and the 13th best OPS.  Against left handed starters the Orioles have the 12th best avg. and the 9th best OPS.  The Angels have the 17th best avg. and 9th best OPS against right handed starters but that is with the now injured Trout and questionable Ohtani who would have made considerable contributions to that result. 

Over the last 7 games the Orioles have averaged 6.1 runs for/ 9 innings and 4.1 runs against / 9 innings while the Angels have averaged 4.6 and 7.1 respectively. 

On top of all that the Orioles are 9-1 when a road fav of -125 to -175.

There is more but you get the idea. Go with the Orioles on the money line. 

Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles' highly touted young right hander has come into his own in August, pitching 6 innings on average, with a  2.64 ERA and a .187 OP BA in five starts.  He will face a real newbie, The Angels' Rosenberg, with just 2 starts under his belt.  He has given up five runs over seven innings with seven walks.  The Orioles are a tough match-up, hitting in the top five, with a .294 BA/.811 OPS.  The Angels , facing a much tougher starter on Monday, are .238/.738  over the same time period. LA was just swept by the A's, outscored 21-9.  A bullpen struggling to a 7.58 ERA in the last 10 games won't help win many games.  Baltimore is an excellent road team, with a terrific bullpen, fighting to stay tops in the AL East.  This really should be the O's game for the taking. I am wagering on the Orioles to win on the Run line at -1.5.

Clemson didn't lose a single ACC game last year, bu it lost non-conference matchups vs. Notre Dame, South Carolina and then it also lost to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. 

Duke was no slouch either though last season, finishing 9-4, capped off with a win over UCF in the Military Bowl. 

Clemson is a powerhouse and Cade Klubnik now has big shoes to fill. He has plenty of weapons though, but I just feel that Duke will be able to keep pace and stay competitive late.

I'm not calling for the outright upset, but with Mike Elko directing the show for Duke, I absolutely don't expect this to be a "cake walk" for the visiting side.

Riley Leonard is an exceptional and versatile QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker here on Monday night.

As stated above, no outright win, but this is a few too many points for Clemson to be covering out of the gate vs. such a talented conference oppoent.

Grab the points, the play is Duke.

The Phillies are just 1-4 in recent games.  They kept the score down in their win on Sunday but allowed at least seven runs in the previous four games.  Taijuan Walker starts on Monday, and while he has been steady this year, he still gives up 3 runs on average while pitching around five innings lately.  His ERA is more than 1.5 runs higher on the road, but he has had great run support this season.  Padres' starter, lefty Rich Hill's starts have been very short lately.  He gave up nearly a run an inning in August, not a good look against a Phillies team that is tops in bops over the last two weeks.  Both offenses are strong; the Phillies are .288/.960 OPS and very good against left handed pitching, while the Padres have climbed to .258/.754 lately.  The Phillies swept the Padres in earlier meetings and all games easily went over.  I expect the same result today.  Both starters appear tired at this stage of the season, Hill especially at the ripe old age of 43.  Take the Phillies and Padres to again go over the the total today.

I like No. 5 LSU to figure out a way to secure the win and cover here on the road at No. 8 Florida State. LSU went 10-4 last year, averaging 34.5 PPG, and allowing just 22.5. 

The Seminoles finished 10-3 and averaged 36.1 PPG, while allowing 20.6. 

This though is actually a revenge game after FSU won 24-23 as a 4-point dog on the road in the first game of the year last season. 

LSU QB Jayden Daniels will prove to be just too much for this still strong FSU defensive unit. 

Brian Kelly plays well a favorite and everything in my opinion points to a comfortable win and cover in this rvenge scenario.

Lay the short points, because the play is LSU.

Giants' veteran Cobb is off a complete game 1 hit monster of a game, but his other August starts weren't as impressive, pitching for five or six innings with an ERA of 5.35 for the month.  He has had much less success on the road this season.  I am also not a fan of backing a pitcher after a complete game.  Cobb faces Padres' Lugo who has been a steady presence this year.  He had one very poor outing early in August, but has been solid since, giving up two or less runs in his last four starts. The Padres are up 2-1 in their home series.  They are outhitting the Giants by a good margin (.293 BA, .812 OPS L7 compared to .226/.661).  While both pens are about equal, I don't think the Giants will get as many innings from their starter on Sunday.  Take the Padres in a third straight home win.

The Rays, challenging for first in their division, have lost 2 close games to the Guardians, after a fine 7-1 run.  They are 18-8 as a road favorite, and hitting well (.277/.820 OPS) in the last two weeks.  Cleveland, often down in the offense stats, has been better than average at .263/.726 in the last week.  Rays' call-up Bradley was effective in the Minors lately, but still has issues with walks and home runs.  Bradley was just 1-4, 7.67 ERA with the  Rays this year,  but Tampa needs help with starters.  Guardians' youngster Curry has now started 5 straight games, with very mixed success.  He threw for just a pair of innings each in his last two starts giving up 9 runs total.  
Tampa especially is very good vs right handers.  The Rays should be ultra-focused today to avoid the sweep and will get their chances against Curry.  Bradley is a bit of a question mark, but did not fare well in the earlier season.  I like the Rays and Guardians to put up some runs today, especially early.  Take the total to go over today.

Villa lost to Newcastle 5-1 to start their season.  Liverpool just beat Newcastle with 10 men.  That alone is pretty convincing stuff.  Add to it that the Reds are 8-1-1 in their last 10 vs. Villa, are unbeaten in their last 13 at home and unbeaten in their last 14 in the EPL and you have the makings of a tough outing at Anfield for Villa. Two of four of the top predictors pick Liverpool in this one while the other two call for a high scoring draw. 

The problem is, Villa have played Liverpool tough at Anfield.  Only ManU and Chelsea have more wins at Anfield.  Watkins has 5 goals vs. Liverpool which is tied for his highest tally against an EPL club.  Villa has averaged 3 goals/game in their last 6.  Liverpool has endured extended periods of serious pressure in all of their EPL matches this season.  Villa has the firepower to take advantage of that especially with van Dijk and Konate out and Alexander-Arnold’s vulnerabilities revealed by being moved to midfield for England due to defensive deficiencies.  Liverpool is vulnerable.  Take the goals on offer for Villa and you win if the draw happens and are covered if Liverpool sneaks out a one goal miracle again.   

The White Sox lost the series opener last night, but won the previous three meetings, including a start featuring today's pitchers.  Right handed veteran Sox pitcher Clevinger has been tough to score on since returning from the IL at the end of July.  He had a 2.70 ERA in August and has allowed just one run or less in 3 of his last 4 appearances.  Tigers' rookie Reese Olson has had some solid starts this season, but his last three have been under five innings, with some control issues and a 5.96 ERA in August.  The first and fourth innings have really been a struggle for him.  The Cubs are hitting very well lately with a .281 BA/.779 OPS over the last two weeks.  That is much better than the Tigers who are .221/.680 in the same time period.  The Sox' problem is relief pitching,  but the Tigers' relievers have been no better in the last ten games.  Take the White Sox to lead early and hold on for the win.

The Cubs and Reds split their double header on Friday, but I like the Cubs' chances in the third and important game on Saturday.  Right handed Javier Assad a reliever-turned-starter, has looked very sharp in his first five starts.  He has a 2.48 ERA and has delivered 6 innings on average in August.  He will face Reds rookie left hander Abbott who was a phenom in his first starts but has had issues in August.  His starts have been poor and short, with a 6.08 ERA and a .302 OP BA.  The Cubs are above .500 on the road, 7-3 in recent games  and solid against lefties.  Their offense is just average lately, but a sight better than the Reds, who are hitting .212/.581 OPS in the last week.  The Cubs are getting fine results from their bullpen with an ERA roughly half of Cincinnati's relievers over the last week.  Both teams had a bullpen day on Friday, and the Cubs are far more likely to get some quality length from Assad on Saturday.  Take Chicago to steal this one on the road from a struggling Reds team.

Last season Nevada went just 2-10, and while the Wolf Pack will assuredly be better this season, I still think they're in way over their heads here on the road in this difficult venue. Brendan Lewis is now the man under center for Nevada, coming over from Colorado, and he doesn't have a lot to work with. The defense was an absolute disaster last year, and it's once again expected to be the weakest point of the team this season. USC is off a rocking chair victory over San Jose State, winning but not covering. But now I for sure like USC to fire on all cylinders here over each drive, and to bury the Wolf Pack over the first three quarters, before making way for the backups and younger kids to get some valuable playing time. QB Caleb Williams had 278 yards and four TD's last week, and I expect him to be a difference-maker this weekend as well. Lay the points.

Brentford and Bournemouth are heading in different directions these days.  It’s surprising that the sportsbooks still offer such good value for you to make use of.  In their last 5 head-to-head Brentford holds a 4-1-1 advantage.  In their last 19 at home Brentford is 10-2-7.  Bournemouth has no wins in their first three to start this season, is an abysmal 0-6-1 in their last 7 and their only 2 wins in their last 10 EPL games were against now relegated clubs. 

Unsurprisingly 4 of the top predictors pick Brentford to win handily.  Bournemouth’s shortcomings mostly stem from backline problems that make them too easy to break down.  This has led to an average of almost 2 goals against in their last 10 EPL games.  When you add that to there being only 4 EPL clubs with worse stats comparing actual goals to the X-goals model you have a recipe for failure.  It’s not surprising that they have the 2nd worst goals against record in the EPL this season.  They also have the 3rd worst goals created actions/90 min in the EPL so there isn’t a lot out there for possible improved goal production.  This should be a very good play to take Brentford on the money line for this one.

Pittsburgh took 2 of 3 from the Cardinals just a few series ago. They have owned St. Louis this year, winning 7 of 10 to date. Now they'll face the Cards on the road as Keller (1.35 ERA/L3 games) faces Hudson (4.58/L3). After a rough July, Keller has been razor sharp in August , seeing his K's rise and hit totals drop. Hudson was roughed up in Philadelphia last time out but was otherwise effective in August. While the 6-4 Pirates have been average on offense (.239 BA/.708 OPS) in the last two weeks, the Cardinals have been skulking down in the basement at 28th (.209/.621 L2 weeks). Their overall pitching has hit a low of 6.40 ERA/L2 weeks with starter and bullpen issues. Here is a curious stat. The Cards are just 3-16 when playing on Friday. Take Pittsburgh to continue their dominance over St. Louis with a road win today.

The Guardians took 2 of 3 from the Twins, but they will have their hands full against the surging Rays, especially with Glasnow on the mound. He bounced back from his only truly poor start in 10 appearances with a 1 hit 6 run effort against the Yankees. His OP. BA in August was .182, even including that sub-par outing. He will face Cal Quantrill who has had a lost year in 2023. Starting for the first time since the beginning of July, he didn't pitch well in his early starts, and his rehab outings weren't entirely promising. Tampa is 8-2 L10 games, 18-7 as a road favorite, and sporting a very fine 5.3/2.9 runs for and against in their last 7 games. They've climbed back into the top 5 in offense, with a .297/.855 OPS line over the last two weeks. The Guardians are not hitting well at .228/.675 OPS in the same time frame. Both teams have solid pens, but this game could be decided in the early innings. Take the Rays on the run line at - 1.5.

We have an interstate matchup here between two teams that are looking to take a big step forward this season. Both likely will, but I still think this is too many points for Michigan State to cover in Week 1. CMU was 4-8 overall last year. Head coach Jim McElwain once again has a tough non-conference schedule ahead of him this year, with upcoming games vs. No. 13 Notre Dame in Week 3 on the horizon with others. Bert Emmanuel is expected to be the starting QB for the Chips this year, and he's a true dual threat who will be able to exploit this poor MSU defense. The Chips weakness is on the defensive end as well, but they catch a break here in Week 1 facing this unproven MSU offense. The Spartans finished 5-7 and missed out on a bowl game. Noah Kim is the man under center to start, and last year he went 14 of 19 for 174 yards. MSU was ranked 82nd defensively, allowing an average of 237.9 YPG through the air. MSU's terrible defensive play will allow the Chips to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Central Michigan.

Luton Town finally gets a home game in the EPL after a long wait and a chance to earn their first points in their return to the Premiership.  They finally won (against a League 2 club in a nailbiter) but are coming off only 2 days of rest and so some might be suffering the effects.  Unfortunately, they are against the red-hot Hammers who soundly beat the two teams Luton lost to (Brighton and Chelsea).  Luton is a little light on the backline as they have 3 out to injury so they may be hard-pressed to deal with West Ham’s strong counter-attacking form.

West Ham has attackers Bowen and Ward-Prowse in form and has added Kudus who is fresh off a hat-trick in his last game with Ajax.  West Ham has scored the 3rd most goals in the EPL, while Luton town have conceded the most goals (in only two matches).  The Hammers Xgoal- diff/90 is +0.21 while Luton’s is -2.16.  This all adds up to a bleak outlook for the hometown Luton and all the reasons lined up to lay the goals and take West Ham.

I think Nebraka is going to be a lot better this year, and I think that Minnesota is going to take a step back, but here in Week 1, I still think that the Gophers run game and re-worked defensive unit will be too much for Matt Rhule's team to handle down the stretch. QB Jeff Sims tranferred over from Georgia Tech for Nebraska and while he has plenty of talent, that chemistry will for sure take time to develop. The Gophers won this game 20-13 last year, but I'm expecting a bigger final discrepancy this time around. Minnesota does have a star in RB Sean Tyler as well. I see this one getting out of hand late, so lay the points on the Gophers.

The Marlins have only scored more than 2 runs twice in 10 games, and those were  3 and  4 run totals. Monday's game features the same pitchers from just five days ago which resulted in the Nationals' 7-4 win.  Adon was very good for Washington in that game, but that has not always been the case in his short tenure. Braxton Garrett starts for Miami.  He has been a solid starter for Miami this season but has given up 3 runs in each of his last 2 starts.  The Nationals have been on a tear in August and have a somewhat more effective offense than Miami's faltering one.  It is hard to know how Adon will respond after such a fine start, but there are few teams who are less of a threat with the bats than Miami.  The Marlins are a bit of an unexpected favorite, which makes the Nationals a very respectable bet on the run line.  Take The Nats, who are an impressive 4-0 on Adon's starts, to keep this one close.  Washington +1.5

The probable starter for the Athletics, Neal, will be starting his 8th game in his 4th season of very sparse appearances (102 innings total).  His stats are what you’d expect with a 6.59 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over 6 appearances (1 start) in August.  He is really being thrown to the wolves here against a Mariners team that is 1st in the majors in avg. and 2nd in OPS who have averaged 8 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games.  Over that same stretch the Athletics have averaged 4 runs/ 9 innings.  That’s a pretty big cushion for a point spread play.

We haven’t even mentioned probable starter Miller for the Mariners who won two games vs. Oakland in May and has a respectable 3.71 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his last 5 starts. 

Add to that a Mariners team with a 9-1 record over their last 10 and an 8-2 advantage in their last 10 head-to-head with the Athletics and you have many reasons to lay the runs and go with the Mariners. 

Probable starter Cease for the White Sox has only averaged 4.1 innings in his last 5 starts.  Over that same stretch his ERA is 8.22 and his WHIP is an abysmal 2.09.  The relievers available for Wednesday have an ERA a full 2 runs higher than the Orioles bullpen.  Although probable starter Gibson has an ERA of 6.75 and WHIP of 1.38 over the same stretch, he has managed a 4-1 record, while Cease has stumbled to a 1-3 record.

Over the last 7 games the White Sox have scored 4.1 runs/9 innings and given up 6.0 runs/9 innings while the Orioles have numbers of 5.3 and 3.0 over the same span.  This is a direct result of the White Sox being in the middle of the pack for avg. and OPS over the last 15 days while the Orioles have been in the top ¼ of the majors over the same time span. 

The White Sox’ August (trade deadline sellers) has seen them slip to a 9-16 record while the Orioles (division leaders) August has seen them achieve a 17-8 record.  Wednesday will see more of the same so the clear play is the Orioles. 

The Yankees have not met expectations this season.  But some parts of their game have been pretty good.  Like their bullpen for instance.  Given this is a bullpen game with probable starter King leading the way they should be in a good spot for this game against the Tigers.  In his two most recent starts King has a 1.80 ERA.  The relievers they have available for this one have a combined 2.82 ERA and a WHIP of 1.08. 

The Tigers counter with lefty Skubal who has a 4.67 ERA in his last 3 starts.  Given the Yankees have the 5th best OPS (17th best avg.) vs. LH starters this season his ERA should go up a few points.  Skubal’s available bullpen has had an 8.41 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in their last 3 and the available relievers for this one have a 4.55 ERA.

At the plate the Tigers have struggled against RH starters and are in the bottom ¼ of the majors.  Neither team has been very good at the plate lately but pitching should win the day for the Yankees. 

Probable starter Alcantara is a big intimidating force who can sometimes pitch deep into a game and at others needs to be taken out like everyone else.  His biggest problem has been that the Marlins can’t provide run support.  They have averaged 1.9 run/9 innings over their last 7 and have a 3-7 record over their last 10 to show for it.  The fact that they have been 25th in avg. and 24th in OPS over the last 15 days is what leads to this paucity of scoring.

In the other clubhouse the Rays will counter with probable starter Civales who has had a 1.60 ERA over his last 5 starts and a 3-1 record to go with it.  His club has provided 7.4 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games and sports the 3rd best avg. and 5th best OPS over the last 15 days, so it is no wonder they are scoring at a high rate.  It’s clear what has led to their 8-2 record over their last 10.

Add to all this the Rays 8-2 head-to-head record in the last 10 vs. the Marlins and you have a solid high value play with the Rays.

The Brewers' veteran lefty Miley has put together a solid August.  He doesn't pitch for length but he's allowed just 8 runs total over 20 innings in 4 starts, keeping the Brewers in every game.  He could even get some run support on Monday as the usually light-hitting Brew Crew are tearing it up on offense to the tune of .270 BA/.816 OPS in the last week.  Compare the Cubs down at the 20th position at .249/.703.  Taillon starts for the Cubs. After a dismal start, he put it all together in July but has regressed in August with three straight sub-par starts and an ERA of 6.08 this month.  The Brewers have the better bullpen.
Milwaukee just swept the Padres, Twins and the Rangers and are a good road team.  They're a small underdog on Monday, but I see them destined to a road win.

While the Padres have struggled, the Cardinals at 2-8 are even worse at the moment.  Wainwright, stuck at 198 wins, just can't seem rescue his season.  His ERA is very high in August, an insult to his success and longevity.  Getting 199 today won't be easy as he will square off against one of the best pitchers this year in Blake Snell.  Snell will give you 6 innings on average, with a 2.77 ERA over his last 7 starts.  He has a .194 OP BA over the last two months.  Even if Wainwright should pitch well, there is every chance the Cards won't deliver on offense.  They are hitting a miserable .175/.543 over the last week, dead last in the MLB, and the bullpen has an ugly 6.82 ERA.  The Padres are just barely surpassing St. Louis on offense, but other than in Sunday's game, they have been getting acceptable relief pitching.  Take the Padres to ruin Wainwright's day.  San Diego on the run line at -1.5.

The Mariners are very hot in August, now earning a share of first in their division.  They crushed the Royals last night and were able to rest their top relievers in that game.  Castillo has pitched well this season but especially at home.  He struggled somewhat vs the Royals just a couple of starts ago giving up 4 runs over 7 innings, but based on past performance is a good candidate to improve on that performance.  He'll face Royals' rookie Marsh, who has pitched effectively in his last appearances, including against the Mariners recently.  He has been limited to about 5 innings in length,  allowing plenty of access to the Royals' faulty bullpen.

KC is 9-15 in August and exceptionally poor vs right-handers.  Their offense had a brief period  in the limelight, but has sunk to .200 BA/.651 OPS over the last two weeks.  Runs for and against tells the tale of these two teams.  The Royals are 3.7/6.1 over their last 7 games; the M's are an amazing 9.0/3.7 , reflecting a .327 BA/1.003 OPS line.  Take the Mariners to win by a solid margin at home. Seattle -1.5

Game two of their away series could go sour for the Cardinals team. The Phillies, who have put themselves in the running for a Wild Card spot and who are seeing the ball very well lately (.305 BA/.988 OPS L7days),  are far out-hitting the Cards at .230/.656.  Nola starts for the Phillies.  He has been sharp when pitching at home with an ERA nearly 2 runs less than in away games.  He was terrific last time out and has allowed just 3 runs over 13 innings in his last 2 home starts.  Drew Rom will start just his second MLB game on Sunday.  Game one did not go at all well, and the Phillies likely won't be handing out any brotherly love.  Relief pitching has been a big plus for the Phillies lately.  At 2.73 ERA over the last ten games the Phillies pen has an ERA of half that of their Cards counterparts.  Runs for and against tell the story of these two teams.  The Phillies are a sharp 7.0/4.6 last seven games.  The Cards are 3.1/7.3.  Take the Phillies on the run line on Sunday.

Burnley has had a tough start to their most recent EPL promotion.  They dominated the Championship last season and were rewarded with an opening match against treble winners Man City.  It didn’t go well.  Then their week 2 match was cancelled because Luton’s pitch wasn’t ready so they had a two week lay-off.  They also lost starting winger Zaroury to a red card so will be without him for 3 weeks and as well, Churlinov and Obafemi are injured.  In the interim they signed three new players who probably won’t start this week.  Now they come up against Villa who have scored 9 goals in their last two games including 3 by the red hot Watkins in their most recent outing. 

Villa are 4-1-1 in their last 6 while Burnley are 2-3-1 in their last 6 .  Villa holds a 2-1 edge in their last 3 at Burnley. 

The Xgoal diff/90 is +0.35 for Villa and -1.6 for Burnley.  Add to this that 3 out of 4 expert predictions pick Villa as the most likely to win, as do the sportsbooks and you have a pretty compelling case to go with Villa on Sunday in this matchup.

Both of these teams disappointed last year, but especially Hawaii which finished 3-10. Vanderbilt wasn't much better at 5-7. These teams opened last year in Hawaii against each other, and Vanderbilt scored the 63-10 win. While I do believe this year's rematch will be considerably more competitive, I do in fact feel we'll see a similar final combined score, so because of that I'm going to be playing the over. Good news for Hawaii is consistency at the QB position from last year to this one, with Brayden Schager back under center. He finished second in the MW with 2,348 passgin yards. Defense was a weak point last year, allowing 34.69 PPG. The Commodores were even worse defensively, yielding 36 PPG. Look for these teams to open things up offensively and expect this total to eclipse the posted number once it's all said and done.

The Cubs have split their road series with the Pirates to date, however they have won their previous 6 straight vs Pittsburgh this year.  With a possible wild card spot on the horizon, they will start right- handed reliever turned starter Assad today.  With just 4 starts under his belt this year, he has a 2.86 ERA while delivering around 6 innings per appearance. He will face Pirates rookie Colin Selby who will likely serve as an opener for a Pirates bullpen day.  Selby's numbers have not impressed.  Since activation in August, he has a 7.27 ERA over 8.2 innings with an ugly 1.96 WHIP.  Chicago is 14-8 in August, and while their offense has slipped a bit, they should get some opportunities today vs the Pirates' relievers.  Pittsburgh is below .500 in August and 22nd in the league vs right-handers .  I am wagering on Assad and the Cubs today, who have all the motivation they need down the stretch.  Take Chicago in a road win.

Here we go with another College Football season and I'll look to pick up right where I left off from last season. Jerry Kill and New Mexico State made their second bowl game since 2000 last year. Kill has a knack of turning programs around, and I see more progression this season. Here's a great opponent to hammer on early and work out some stuff. Last year Diego Pavia was a true dual threat QB, while the defense was the biggest surprise, finishing 30th overall in the country. New Mexico State is only ranked 122nd, and UMass is significantly lower than that. Look for the Aggies to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with New Mexico State.

The Big Cats are playing Saturday in Vancouver but only one of them really has any claws.  The Lions almost made a comeback in week 10 vs. the Riders while the Ti-Cats offered up the first win of the season for the lowly Elks.  The Lions are 2-0 after a straight up loss this season and have outscored their opponents 72-28 in those two games.  Both of those games were in Vancouver.

In their last 2 games the Ti-Cats have averaged 210 yds passing/game while the Lions have averaged 388 yds passing/game.  3rd string QB Powell threw a TD pass his first game in relief back on July 13th, but since then he has started 3 games and thrown 3 INTs and no more TD passes. 

There are also some stark contrasts in team stats between the two squads.  The Lions are 3rd in the CFL in avg points/game while the Ti-Cats are 9th in avg points against/game.  The Lions are 2nd in net offence/game while the Ti-Cats are 8th in opposition net offence/game.  The Lions are 1st in avg passing yds/game while the Ti-Cats are 7th in opposition passing yds/game.  I could go on how high the Lions’ defence is in key stats and how low the Ti-Cats’ offence is in the related category, but I won’t.  You get it.  This is a mismatch and you should clearly lay the points and go with the Lions. 

The Jays and Guardians have played each other five times this year and not one of those games has gone over 7 runs. Jays' lefty Riu looks to have his best stuff back since returning from a long stint on the IL.  He has given up 0 runs in his last 3 starts, averaging around 5 innings per appearance.  He shut out the Guardians over 4 innings last time he faced them.  Left- handed rookie Logan Allen has had a fine first season.  He struggled mid-season but looks to have rallied in August, with a 1.96 ERA for the month.  He held Toronto to 1 run over 5 innings just 3 starts ago.  Both teams have solid bullpens lately.  The Guardians are the worst team in the league against lefties, while the Jays are a poor 28th against everyone in the last 2 weeks.  Take Saturday's game to go under the total again.

In their last 5 games Brentford has managed 13 of a possible 15 points.  They have been on fire to start this season as well with the second most goals from the first two weeks and an Xgoal total of 5.9.  Palace has an Xgoal total of 2.9.  For Palace this is a continuation of last season where only two of the relegation sisters scored less than them.  And that was with the now departed Zaha.  Olise was supposed to help remedy this, but he is still injured.  Palace is really up against it as Brentford has an Xgoals against so far of 1.7.  Brentford can score and defend.  Brentford also had the most big chances missed this season with 5 so a regression to the mean should result in even more goals. Palace not only can’t score, they aren’t generating big chances, as they have only missed 2 and have only scored once so far.  Last week when Arsenal was reduced to 10 men, Palace still couldn’t generate much.  Brentford also has the 2nd most shots on target while Palace has the 12th most.  Take Brentford for the win on this one.  

Two solid veterans start face off in the Padres/Brewers game on Friday.  Darvish has been pretty generous with the hits of late, with a .289 OP BA in August and 8 runs over 12 innings in his last two starts. He was much more effective in his previous starts.  Woodruff has just three starts since returning from the IL.  He has held the opposition to a .183 ERA but has given up more runs than expected, allowing 5 home runs in the three starts.
 It is odd to think of the light-hitting Brewers outhitting the Padres but that has been the case in the last two weeks.  The Brewers' pen has been much better with a 2.41 ERA compared to 4.21 fro the Padres in the last 10 games. The 7-3 Brewers have been sharp in August and very good at home this year.  The Padres are poor on the road and 38-48 against right handed pitching.  You won't find a better righty than Woodruff, and really, he is just getting warmed up at this point in his season.  I am on the favorite on Friday.  Take the Brewers to win.

After an absolutely brutal season, Lance Lynn seems to have finally found his form as a Dodger, starting 4 games in August and giving up just 5 runs while holding the opposition to a .189 BA.  He will face Fenway's green monster and Boston's young right hander Cutter Crawford today.  Crawford has also been very solid in August, holding the Yankees to a single hit and run over 6 innings.  Crawford's other August starts have all been of the shorter variety and his ERA in Fenway is nearly 5.95.  The Dodgers are an exceptional 19-3 in August, and a tough 57-30 vs right-handers.  The Red Sox, off a monster victory on Thursday, haven't fared well in interleague action.  Both these teams hit very well, but I am going with Lynn today, who is off a pair of shutout outings,is a serious strikeout artist and will likely pitch longer into the game.  Take the Dodgers to win on the road.

Chelsea and Luton Town have both been playing high event soccer as of late.  Chelsea has given up the first goal in their last 6 EPL matches.  But they do have 3.54 Xgoals so far and Jackson alone has 1.14.  Big signing Caicedo will get his first start alongside the other big signing Mac Allister (his former teammate) and both will benefit from playing with Sterling who has been a real bright spot for Chelsea.  They lead the league in big chances missed so the tide will have to turn here.

Brighton surrendered 4 goals in their first game and also had their woodwork hit 3 times, so they give up chances galore.  They play a very direct game and should also get success against a very fragile backline that will be missing star James for this one.

Chelsea’s Xgoals/90 is 1.96 while Luton’s is 1.46 which gives a total over 3.  Most predictions have Chelsea scoring 3 so Luton only needs to find the net once to get a high total in this one.  Go for the over and enjoy all the high event soccer.

The White Sox are home to the equally hapless A's, starting Thursday. The White Sox are outhitting the A's over the last week by a significant margin; .266/.701 OPS vs .205/.642.  They'll run out RH sometimes-starter rookie Scholtens, who was hit hard in Colorado last time out, but was otherwise effective in his previous three starts.   He'll face  A's lefty Waldichuck who has three straight quality starts under his belt, allowing just 5 runs total over 18 innings.  This one could be close early but the A's are the worst hitting team vs right-handers in the league, while the Sox hit lefties effectively.  Both bullpens are poor and struggling lately.  This one should come down to the superior offense.  Take the Sox who are surprisingly good (10-5) in the rare games they are a home favorite, to win at home.

The Astros have taken games 1 and 2 of their home series vs the Red Sox.  Can they manage the sweep today?  I believe so, and here is why.  Bello starts for the Sox.  After a terrific May and June, he is pitching for less innings and has struggled more often than not in the last two months, with a .312 OP BA.  France has at least ROY consideration after his season for the Astros.  He has been Mr. Consistency and hasn't allowed more than three runs in a game since July 14th.  Since them, he is 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA. 

Boston is just 13-21 on the road, just 10-10 in August, and are giving up more runs than they score this month.  Both teams are hitting well, but the Astros have a significant edge in both average and power over the last two weeks.  Should Bello pitch well, the Astros bullpen ERA is roughly half that of the Sox over the last 10 games.  Take Houston to bring out the broom today.

This should be a pitchers’ duel for the first six innings or so between these two veteran hurlers.  Probable starter for the Mets, southpaw Quintana has been very effective since his return from IR and rehab in late July.  His ERA and WHIP were superlative in August, but he still didn’t get his first win until last week.  He has a tough challenge on tap against the Braves who lead the majors in avg. and OPS against LHPs this season.  Even if he survives, his available bullpen won’t be able to hold the fort against a Braves batting order that is 2nd in avg. and 3rd in OPS over the last 15 days. 

Over their last 10 against the Mets the Braves are 7-3 and have an average margin of victory of 5.6 runs in each of those wins. 

To add to the Mets’ challenge, they will be facing veteran Morton who has a 2.93 ERA in August and has a solid bullpen available Wednesday, as well as the aforementioned formidable run support.  Lay the runs and go with the Braves on this one.

Probable starter Kirby has pitched some gems lately for the red-hot Mariners including 9 innings of shutout ball (although he did not get a decision against the Orioles in that one) and two other games where he only allowed 1 run.  All this has been over his last 5 outings.  Over his last 3, his ERA is 2.05 and his WHIP is 0.64.

Probable starter Kopech has averaged 4.2 innings pitched and has an ERA of 8.53 over his last 5 starts and in his last 3 starts his WHIP is 1.98 (and his ERA is 9.88). 

Kopech’s team is cold too.  They have the 14th best avg. and the 25th best OPS in the majors over the last 15 days.  In the other dugout the Mariners have the 3rd best avg. and the 2nd best OPS over the last 15 days.  Not surprisingly the Mariners are 15-4 in August while the White Sox are 6-12.  Over the last 7 games the Mariners avg. 3.8 runs more / 9 innings than the Mariners and allow 4.3 less/ 9 innings than the Mariners.  This will make you very comfortable to lay the runs and go with the Mariners. 

The 4-6 Angels have been badly bitten by the injury bug, and not just in the pitching department.  They are dead last on offense over the last 2 weeks with a .208/.595 OPS line.  Their runs for/against is an unimpressive 3.4/7.6, inflated especially by poor relief pitching.  The Reds have had better offensive stretches but are still significantly better at .231/.696, and are look far more impressive at 4.0/2.9 in runs for/against.  Giolito has had mixed results since joining the Angels with a short blow-out start followed by a pair of reasonable outings.  His high OP BA in August is a concern.  Reds' starter Ashcraft has been steady if unlucky in the wins department with a 2.86 ERA and .190 OP BA  in August. The Rangers are favored today, but are sub-.500 as a home favorite, and outright poor in August.  The Reds have a real shot at the playoffs this year.  Take the Reds to win on the road.

The Dodgers said goodbye to probable starter for the Guardians, Syndergaard,  in late July.  He has had mixed results for his new team, the Guardians, that make for some weak numbers.  In his last 3 starts he has a 6.19 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP that have led to a 1-2 record.  His time in LA wasn’t much better. 

Rising star. 24-year-old Miller, is the probable starter for the Dodgers.  Lately he has been on fire with a 1.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his last 3 starts.  On the season he has a deserved 7-2 record. 

The available pitchers from the bullpen have very similar stats for both teams but at the plate there is a big gap between the squads.  In the last 15 days the Dodgers are in the top 3rd of the majors for avg. and OPS while the Guardians are in the bottom 4th for both over the same time period.  For the important OPS stat the Dodgers are 3rd in the majors vs. RHP over the season. 

Lastly the Dodgers have a 17-2 record in August and a 15-5 record vs. teams with a losing record after the all-star break.  The Guardians are 6-12 for August and have a 7-14 record vs. teams with a winning record after the all-star break.  Lay the points and go with Miller and the Dodgers.

The A's were crushed by the Orioles on Sunday, but could bounce back against a much easier match-up in the Royals on Monday.  Sunday's game was a blow-out early, so the A's' best relievers should be available.  Oakland will start Blackburn, likely their most dependable and effective starter, with a 1.93 ERA in August.  He has delivered a quality start more often than not of late and has been good at home.  Royal's reliever Davidson hasn't started this year, so will likely act as the Royals' opener.  He has been hit hard as a reliever in August with a .292 OP BSA and a 5.68 ERA.  The Royals had been hitting well lately but their hot bats have cooled slightly lately.  The A's are just below average on offense in their last 7 games.  It is hard to get excited about either team, but blackburn is definitely a step up from a Royals' bullpen day.   Oakland should take a lead into the late innings, and their pen is as effective as the Royals.  take the A's to win at home.

Arsenal and Palace both came out of game week 1 with all 3 points.  Palace only managed 1 goal against a very weak Sheffield side.  They will be hard pressed to produce anything against a superior defence like Arsenal has.  Arsenal had 10 clean sheets away last season and 39 points away which was the best in the EPL.  Arsenal got up by 2 in the first half against Nottingham Forest and then coasted which made things a bit nervy at the end.  Forest is superior to Sheffield and Arsenal is superior to Palace by extension.

With the addition of Rice in midfield and the maturation of a world class talent like Saka, Palace will have their hands full.

Arsenal also feasted on all the London Derbys last season as they won 10 of 12 including both wins against Palace.  They have won 3 of their last 5 against Palace including 2 wins at Palace. 

Palace has trouble scoring which is shown by the fact they only scored 40 times last season which is less than two of the relegation sisters scored(Leeds and Leicester).  And they did that with Zaha (by far their leading scorer) who has since moved on.  Lay the goal and go with Arsenal on this one. 

The Phillies hammered the Nationals last night, beating up on Washington's bullpen.  The Phillies are leading the league in OPS over the last two weeks, and face a right-hander who has an ERA of 7.44 in his last seven starts.  Short starts and lots of earned runs is the line on Williams these days.  He'll square off with the Phillies ace Wheeler, who has been very sound lately.  He beat the Nats in a 6 inning 3 run start just 10 days ago. Wheeler has been more effective on the road this season.  
We are heading into the stretch and every game matters for the Phillies at this point.  The Nats have impressed lately but they are out-classed in starters and out-gunned on offense on Sunday.  Add in decent relief pitching, a rarity for the Phillies in the last few seasons, and you have a recipe for a run line victory.  Take the Phillies at -1 1/2.

White Sox' right hander Dylan Cease has looked just fine in his last two starts, allowing just 2 runs over 12+ innings.  It hasn't been an easy season for the White Sox ace, but he has been sharp more often than not lately.  Meanwhile Flexen has struggled to a 7.78 ERA in his last seven starts, including 9 runs in 11 innings pitched in his last two appearance.  Neither team has fared well in August, however the Rockies have crushed the White Sox in the first two games of this series. Really, the teams are about even as far as the numbers go but the White Sox have much the superior starter on Sunday.  It will be "Cease and desist" as far as the Rockies' recent run riot goes.  Look for the White Sox to salvage something from the series with a road win on Sunday

Analysis    These two teams lost in the first game week.  Villa was dismantled by Newcastle and Fulham won with a clean sheet against Everton.  The similarities end there as Villa has dominated Everton over the last while and ended last season strongly.  In their last 7 at home Villa is 7-0 and has only conceded 2 goals.  Everton has trouble scoring as last season they only managed 34 goals in 38 games. 

Villa is 6-0-2 in their last 8 vs. Everton and 4-0 in their last 4 home matches vs. Everton.  In their last 6 head to head Villa has outscored Everton 12-2. 

Both managers have problems with availability of starters but this should not reduce Villa’s superiority.  Pick Villa on this one. 

The Tigers and Guardians split a double-header on Friday, scoring just 5 and 6 runs total in the two games.  Another low scoring game might be in the cards on Saturday with Manning facing the Guardians' rookie phenom Bibee.  Bibee is 4-0 with an ERA of 2.06 in his last seven games, and has been remarkably consistent, allowing no more than 3 runs in his last 10 appearances against tough competition. Manning starts for the Tigers.  He bounced back with a very fine start after 3 straight rough outings.  He has been much better in away games this season.  The Tigers and Guardians are 21st and 28th vs right handers.  Cleveland is poor against anyone of late with a .236/.644 OPS in the last two weeks.  The under in Cleveland's and Detroit's last ten games is a combined 15-5.  I like the under in this game as well.  Look for a very low total in the early going.  Take the Tigers and Guardians to stay under the total .

The Brewers are just 3 games above .500 on the road this year.  They barely held on for a win against the powerhouse Rangers last night in Game One of the road series.  Texas runs out Dane Dunning today.  He has had a fine year for the Rangers, and hasn't faded down the stretch at all.  In his last three starts he has given the Rangers innings (20+), low ERs (5 total) and K's (29).  He is 6-1 at home this year.  Brewers starter Peralta has been equally good lately, although he hasn't been quite as effective when pitching on the road.  It is a different story on offense.  The Brewers, never a strong offensive team, clocked in at .229/.663 OPS in the last two weeks.  The Rangers stood 4th at .256/.802.  Texas is 12-4 in August and 19-13 as a home favorite.  Yesterday aside, they have been getting good results from their relievers.  Given their superior offense, I'm wagering on the Rangers to bounce back and win today.

Two clubs who gained promotion in the 2020’s will face off in one version of the West London Derby Friday.  Brentford is at Fulham as both clubs are eager to get their second straight result.  Brentford hung in against one of the top sides in the Premiership, Tottenham, for a 2-2 draw.  Fulham won 1-0 vs Everton in a game they were seriously outclassed in.  It is a tough call to pick a winner as both lost at home to the other, 3-2, over the past season. 

What is clear though is both clubs are involved in matches with a generous number of goals.  In their last 5 at home Fulham is 4-1 on games over the 2.5 total, while in their last 4 away, Brentford is 3-1 for the over 2.5 total.  Head-to-head these two clubs are 4-0 for the over 2.5.  Yes, there is a clear trend here and it is clear what you should do. 

Off a pair of losses the Orioles will look to rebound on Friday vs the A's.  Right hander Gibson starts, after his worst appearance of the year.  He has been generally very successful this season and allowed three or less runs in his four previous starts while pitching at least six innings per game.  He will face the A's Medina who has started to show some promise after a rough start.  He has been limited to just seven+ runs total in his last two starts.  There in lies the problem. The A's bullpen is the worst in the league this season.  By comparison, the O's have a top ten pen this year.  The A's are 3-7, a poor 8-18 as a home underdog, and league-last against right-handed pitching.  I like the Orioles to get back on track.  The only concern is Gibson's poor last outing.  In the past he has been up and down.  Take the Orioles, a favorite to win.

The Stamps are running out of runway here to salvage their season.  They need to get back on track but are in the middle of a string of games against the Lions, Argos and Bombers; the elite of the CFL.  It isn’t going to happen this week.  QB Maier is just too inconsistent.  His last loss to the Bombers he only got 122 yards passing.  In 4 of his last 9 games he has less than 170 yards passing.  That doesn’t come close to cutting it in the pass happy CFL.  He leads the CFL in INTs thrown and has the lowest passer efficiency rating among qualified QBs at 78.7.  This is bad news against a Bombers’ “D” that has the 2nd best opponents’ pass efficiency rating (77.9) and opponents’ avg yards/pass (7.4). 

On the other side of the ball the Bombers lead the CFL in passing yards and are 2nd in rushing yards.  Calgary’s “D” is in the bottom half of the CFL in both for opponents rushing and passing categories.

The Bombers are 5-1 in their last 6 after an ATS loss while the Stamps are 1-5 in their last 6 ATS vs. the West.  The spread is less because Brown will start in place of Collaros but Brown has too many weapons at his disposal.  Lay the points and take the Bombers.

Two of August's top producing teams square off in game one of the Astros home series vs Seattle.  JP France, an unlikely but possible ROY, has allowed 3 or less runs in 11 of his last 12 appearances winning five straight games.  He will face Seattle's rookie righty Miller, who has been exceptional at times this season, but with the odd very poor outing (two in his last four starts) thrown in.  He has been difficult to score on in his last two starts with a pair of five inning one run outings.  His ERA is nearly two runs higher when pitching on the road.  Both teams have top ten offenses in recent weeks , although the Astros have the advantage; .297/.879 OPS vs Seattle's .265/824 OPS.  The Mariners have been getting their usual steady relief pitching, but the Astro's bullpen has been superb of late.  Houston is tough to beat at home, probably a difference maker on Friday.  Take the Astros to win a close one.

This is the first of what should prove to be many relegation battles this season.  Nottingham avoided relegation last year with a strong finish as they improved as the season went on.  With almost a completely new squad to start last season it took them awhile to gel under manager Cooper but after only a few key additions this summer they looked threatening at times vs. Arsenal last week.  The continuity form last year should be helpful.  The addition of American GK Turner was a shrewd move and is starting to pay dividends already as he made 7 saves vs a tough opponent.  Forest lost only 5 of 19 at home last year and won their last three at home including victories over Arsenal and Brighton. 

Sheffield finished 2nd in the Championship to Burnley a full 10 points back.  They lost leading scorer Ndiage over the summer and haven’t replaced him adequately.  The 1-0 loss to Palace flattered them as they were never threatening.  They have a long list of injuries which highlights their need for more quality additions to the squad.  This should be a struggle in the early season for Sheffield which will play well for Forest at home.  Take Forest all they way. 

With D-backs ace right-hander Gallen pitching very well lately, including six innings of shutout ball vs today's opponent, it would be tough to wager against him.  It was his second shutout appearance in three starts.  Arizona has won 4 of their last 5 after a woeful start to August.  They are tough on lefties this year, and will face a struggling one today.  Hill, who has had some good moments this year, has faltered as a Padre.  Perhaps his age is showing as he has an 8.72 ERA over his last three games, with just one start of his last four reaching five innings.  The Padres are 3-7, still aren't hitting up to expectations. (.251/.708 OPS L14 days), and aren't hitting right-handers well.  The Arizona offense has surged to a .281/.845 line, good for fifth in the league over the last week.  While I don't like the D-backs bullpen, Gallen gives them  far more quality innings than Hill is likely to.  Take the D-backs to take this one on the road.

I’m not going to make the mistake I made after the Bombers’ last bye week and their subsequent annihilation of the Lions, nor the scare the Elks, off their bye week, threw into the Bombers. The Ti-Cats are coming off a bye week and with a new OC in successful CFL coach Milanovich having two weeks to prepare, the Elks will be in trouble.  It is also instructive to note that the Ti-Cats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when coming off a bye week and the Elks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Ti-Cats.

It won’t help that the Elks will be without their leader on defence, DB Purifoy, as well as starting DE Brown.   

Both teams are at or near the bottom of the league in most important offensive and defensive stats so we aren’t expecting a Picasso here but should see two rejuvenated offenses as the Elks will go into their second game with their new OC, Jackson, as well.  Both teams will not start the QB they started the season with.  Lay the points and go with the Ti-Cats coming off their bye week. 

It has finally started to happen.  The CFL’s offences are catching up to the defences.  In week 10 the games averaged 60 points/game (second highest average total of the season).  Passing led to 17 TDs with only 7 INTs.  Both of these teams have new OCs with lots of experience sorting out CFL offensive opportunities and limitations.  The Elks and their new starting QB Ford threw a real scare into the Bombers last week, jumping out to a 22-0 lead early.  And this week WR Lewis, last year’s outstanding player in the East, will return to add another threat to the Elks’ passing game. 

The Ti-Cats hired Grey Cup winning coach Milanovich as their OC and he has had two weeks (coming off a bye) to prepare his new team.  He was a QB coach for the NFL Colts so he should help QB Powell improve his production.

Between two rejuvenated offences and two low rated defences this should be a high scoring affair.  Take the over and enjoy the fireworks. 

The Mets have won 3 of 4 games, an improvement since their post-deadline collapse.  Quintana has pitched well for them lately, giving up just 1 and 2 runs over 6 innings per to stiff competition in his last two starts.  He' has been very unlucky or unsupported since his return in mid-July.  He will face Adam Wainwright , who is definitely showing his age.  The Cardinals have won just one of his last six starts, and he has gone over three innings just a single  time.  The Cards' pen is better than the Mets', but there will be a bunch of innings to cover if Wainwright's start goes south again.  St. Louis had the top OPS in baseball last week while the Mets are improving at least, hitting .747 OPS/ L7 days.  As bad as the Mets' relievers have been I still like their chances on Thursday.  Look for NY to get ahead early and hold on for the win.

Probable pitcher Abbott for the Reds seems to be a charm for his team as they have a 10-3 record when he starts.  Probable starter Syndergaard for the Guardians seems to have the opposite effect on his team (which was the Dodgers before the trade deadline) as his team’s record is 5-10 when he starts.  Syndergaard was also shelled the last game he pitched against the Reds (for the Dodgers) as he gave up 6 ERs over 3 innings.

Add to this the fact that the Guardians are 29th in avg. and 30th (dead last) in the majors against LHP.  The Reds are in the top half of the majors vs RHP. 

And don’t forget, the Guardians are 6-13 against teams with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season.  The Reds are 8-5 against teams with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season.  Lay the points and take the high value bet for the Reds in this one.

These two teams look way different after the trade deadline.  Probable pitcher Oviedo is on the Pirates because of the trade deadline and as of late has been very effective.  In his last 3 starts he has a 3.22 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP on a struggling Pirates team.  In his last start against the Mets he lost but this is a very different Mets team than the one he lost to.   Megill has had a whopping 9.00 ERA since his post trade deadline recall from the minors. 

Available pitchers from the Pirates bullpen have an ERA almost a full run lower than the available pitchers in the Mets bullpen.

In their last 7 the Pirates average more than a run more for/9 innings than the Mets and 0.8 runs less against/9 innings than the Mets.

With Oviedo rounding into form since the end of July and Megill struggling to find his form since his recall August 5th,  this is a fine pick to go with the Pirates.

Probable pitcher Severino for the Yankees recently called himself the worst pitcher in baseball.  That hasn’t been the case in the recent past as he was an all-star once.  But lately with a 13.50 ERA so far in August and an 11.22 ERA in July he has been horrendous.  Add in a 2.15 WHIP over his last 3 and you have a recipe for lots of runs.  Probable starter Elder for the Braves started out strong but has faltered as of late.  His August ERA is 9.64 so far and his July ERA was 5.96.  In his last 3 starts his WHIP has been 1.347 and his ERA has been 6.06.

At the plate the Braves lead the majors over the last 15 days and all season vs. RHP in avg. and OPS.  The Yankees have been middle of the pack over the last 15 days but have some power at the plate that could cause Elder some grief.  In their last 7 games the Yankees have averaged 4.9 runs for/9 innings and 5.6 runs against/9 innings which in and of itself could lead to a formidable total but when you look at the Braves 8.4 runs for/9 innings and 4.0 runs against/9 innings in their last 7, this could get ugly for the pitchers. 

The Yankees have been 6-4 in their last 10 for overs and the Braves have been 8-2 for overs in their last 10.  This could be a perfect storm for a runaway total.

Both probable starters for the Yankees and Braves have struggled as of late.  Severino for the Yankees has been in a funk beyond compare though and it makes Elder’s recent dip look palatable.  A 13.05 ERA for August backs onto an 11.22 ERA for July and his WHIP over his last 3 starts is north of 2.00.  Elder has had a tough August too but his ERA over his last 3 starts is almost half the size of Severino’s.

Add to this the majors’ leading avg. and OPS over the last 15 days compiled by the Braves and their mastery of RHP all season where again they lead the majors in avg. and OPS and you have the makings of an ugly outing for Severino and the Yankees.  The Yankees are 29th in avg. and 24th in OPS vs. RHP this year (although they have been middle of the pack overall over the last 15 days).

In terms of runs for/9 innings the Braves have averaged almost double what the Yankees have.  It’s a pretty confident play to lay the runs and go with the Braves on this one. 

You won't get a Rays/Glasnow start at a better price than this line, especially considering it is most likely a bullpen day for the Giants.  Glasnow has been super sharp lately, allowing just 4 runs in 21 innings in his last three starts.  He was AL Pitcher of the Month in July.  The Giants' Walker is a solid reliever but hasn't pitched more than 3 innings this year, so it is over to a struggling bullpen after that. The Giants broke out for a win on Sunday, on the back of an 8 inning start by Webb, but are presently 29th in the league in OPS, and have a tough time putting wins together. The Rays are hitting reasonably well, and are solid off a loss.  Glasnow has averaged less than 2 runs an outing in his last 7 starts.  Take The Rays, 16-6 as a road favorite, to win today.

The 3-7 Mets salvaged a single win in the Braves series, but gave up a massive 33 runs in the three games.  Pittsburgh is 5-5 L10, but has seen the over in seven of ten games, averaging six runs-allowed in their last seven games.  Carrasco was surprisingly good in his last start (two runs over five innings), but based on his record this year, he is no one to rely on for a quality start.  His ERA in July was 7.79 and he gave up a dozen runs in his previous eight plus innings.  He has been especially poor when pitching at home this year.  He'll face rookie right-hander Priester, who has struggled in his first season.  None of his starts have gone over five innings, and he is hovering around a run an inning for the season.  The Mets are struggling with the bats, scoring four runs or less in nine of ten games, but they will get their chances vs Priester.  The Pirates were 10th in OPS over the last week and will have the chance to run up the score if Carrasco reverts to his season's form.  The Mets' bullpen is a disaster lately, the Pirates', merely poor.  Take the Mets and Pirates to go over the total.

It’s a new world in the EPL this season with Chelsea and Liverpool not making the Champions League and Manchester United moving back into the EPL top 4.  Last season United had the lowest goals against record in the EPL at home and only lost one game at Old Trafford.  Rashford was second in goals to the incomparable Haaland and will look to continue against a Wolves team that is in disarray. 

The Wolves only made two additions but lost Jimenez, Costa, Neves, Traore and Moutinho.  Those holes have not been filled.  Their manager from last year cleaned out his office 4 days ago and new skipper O’Neil has had to sort out his new squad in short order.  In their last 6 matches the Wolves surrendered 14 goals and only scored 4.  Against a stingy United defence this will not improve. The Wolves also failed to win any of their final 8 road games.  All in all, you should lay the goals and go with United on this one.   

The 9-1 Rangers have it all at the moment, with a fine 5.3/2.6 runs for and against line.  They have allowed 3 or less runs in 9 of their last 10 games, and have the bullpen operating on all cylinders lately.  The Giants have lost 6 of 7 games including the last two to the Rangers.  Their offense sunk to a .201 BA/ .590 OPS line the last week.  They are favored today but only because Webb is on the mound.  Webb has been very consistent and usually delivers solid inning numbers, with great control.  The Giants' bullpen has not been as sharp of late, and they are hitting right-handed pitching to the tune of just .177 in the last 10 days.  Dunning starts for the Rangers.  Off a very successful season, his ERA crept up to 5.06 in the month of July, but he has recovered in August, allowing just 4 runs over 13 innings with a .167 OP BA.

As good as Webb can be, you still have to score runs to win games.  Dunning has been an effective starter; one whom the Giants have never faced.  With the Rangers having the much superior offense and the more productive pen  in recent games., I still like the underdog to come through today.  Take Texas to win and finish the sweep.

After a run-fest yesterday in the Rangers/Giants match up on Saturday, It could be a low scoring game today.  Webb, the Giants' most dependable starter, has been consistent this year, pitching for length with low runs allowed and very good control.  Dunning slipped a bit in July but his last 2 starts have been fine, allowing just 4 runs over 13 innings.  The Giants are really struggling to produce runs, batting just .210 with a .590 OPS in the last week.  The Rangers are getting excellent results from their bullpen lately.  They are a formidable offensive team, but like anyone else will struggle against a fine starter.  Look for length and quality from today's starters, and a total similar to Game One of the series.  Play the Under today!

After a pair of high scoring games, I expect Sunday's Guardians/Rays  match-up to be a much lower scoring affair.  The starters, Bibee and Eflin have been especially tough to score on in recent action.  Bibee is 4-0 with and ERA of 1.70 in his last 7 games.  What has he done lately?  Only shut out the Jays over 7 innings pitched.  Eflin has been terrific in his two August starts, allowing just a single run over 13 innings.  He is 10-2, with an ERA of 2.49 in home starts this season and has yet to walk anyone this month.  Neither team has faced the opposing starter to date.  Tampa (.274/.810 OPS) is a top 7 offense over the last two weeks, however the Guardians are a low-flying 29th at .218/.594 OPS.  Both teams are known for their bullpens, but neither relief corps is performing especially well.   I expect a very low scoring game in the early going.  Both pitchers are averaging 6+ innings.  Look for the bullpens to hang on.  Take the Guardians and Rays to go under the total.

Chelsea and Liverpool both disappointed last season.  But they ended their seasons in much different fashions.  Chelsea was humiliated in the last stretch with one win in their L 11 while Liverpool found their footing and were undefeated in their final 11.  The Reds paid for not rejuvenating their midfield in the first half of last season but have made amends this year with the departures of Henderson and Fabinho and the addition of World Cup champion Mac Allister and Szoboszlai.  There were goals galore at both ends of the pitch for the Reds in preseason so expect a dynamic side that will power past the goalless draws the last 4 times these squads met. 

Newcomers Fofana and Nkunku are out for Chelsea but new manager Pochettino had the Blues winning in preseason. 

But Liverpool has too much firepower and too much recent success for Chelsea to turn things around for this one.  The Reds also have Klopp who will sort out how to make use of his new additions quickly.  The Blues should be better but won’t be able to pull off the challenge before them in their opener.  Take the Reds in this one.

The Royals hammered the Cardinals on Friday.  We will likely see less runs  in Saturday's game with two solidly performing lefties squaring off.  Matz has been very consistent in his last appearances, allowing just 2 runs in 4 starts while averaging 6 innings per appearance.  Royals' rookie Ragans has similar numbers since returning to line up, also averaging 6 innings per appearance, and giving up just a pair of runs in his last three starts.  He has 19 K's in his last two games!  The Royals cashing 12 runs on Friday is not such a surprise; they are second in both BA (.295) and OPS (.851) over the last two weeks.  The Cards have been pretty average  (14th) in the same time frame.  Both teams are hovering around .500 in August.  The Cards are a heavy favorite, making the run line look very appealing considering considering Ragans' and the Royals offensive performances.  Take KC at +1 1/2.

After a 20 run slug-fest on Friday, I expect Saturday's Cards/Royals total to be far less.  Both left-handed starters are on fine runs.  Matz has been very good since returning, pitching for length and allowing just a pair of runs in his last 4 starts.  Royals rookie Ragans has been equally impressive, giving up just 2 runs in his last three outings and striking out 19(!) in his last two appearances.  Neither bullpen impressed on Friday, but the game was a blow-out early, so both teams' best relievers should be available on Saturday. The Royals are hitting well but generally struggle vs left-handed pitching.  The Cardinals are very average at the moment on offense.  I think the total is slightly inflated after Friday's 12-8 outcome.  Take the total to go under on Saturday.

The Tigers continued to struggle against the Red Sox in game one of their away series. Their right -hander Manning has also struggled lately, with far too many hits and over a run an inning allowed in his last three starts.  Opposing batters are hitting him at a .327 clip in August.  Bello, the Sox' young right-hander starts for today.  Bello saw his ERA creep up in July after a long stretch of quality starts.  He bounced back last time out with a fine 6+ inning effort, allowing just a single run.  He has consistently pitched better at Fenway than away this season.   Boston is tough to beat at home and tougher on right handed pitching than Detroit (.260 vs .231 BA.)  The Sox are 12-5 vs. sub .500 teams in the second half.  I like Bello's chances today.  Detroit has never faced the youngster. Look for Boston to win their fourth straight game.  Take the Sox on the run line at -1 1/2.

Luton Town is away to Brighton in their first ever game in the Premiership.  They are in tough as Brighton has proven to be an offensive force at home with a 6-0 result over Wolves, a 3-0 result over Liverpool and a 4-0 domination of Chelsea at Amex Stadium in Brighton.  Brighton just has too much attacking power.  Even with the loss of Mac Alllilster and pending loss of Caicedo, their pickups of Milner, Dahoud and Pedro is going to keep coach De Zerbi awash in attacking possibilities.  Returnees Estupinan on the back line, Gross in the middle of the park and Welbeck up front should help stabilize recent arrivals.

Luton will not have centre backs Burke and Osho available as well as midfielders Clark and Potts.  This should open space for Brighton’s attacking style.  It should be noted that Brighton only lost 5 at home all last year and only 1 vs teams in the bottom of the table.  Luton finished more than 10 points behind Championship leader Burnley and then only advanced after PKs in the qualifying game.  Chances are they will be in the bottom half of the table. 

Luton is likely to work to be difficult to break down but Brighton is just too strong attacking.  Lay the points and take Brighton. 

The Roughriders have a short turnaround and have to travel for this one.  With an inexperienced QB, a banged up D-line, O-line and WR corps this will be difficult for the Riders to be prepared for.  It is also important to note that teams off only 4 days rest this season are 2-7 straight up and ATS.  The Riders are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against teams with a winning record.   

Other things are more even as they are side by side in most team defensive categories in the CFL team stats rankings except for opposition offensive TDs, 1st downs allowed and avg. first down yards allowed, where the Als are 1st or 2nd and the Riders are 4th or 6th. It is hard to compare offensive team stats as most of the Riders’ were achieved under the auspices of injured first string QB Harris and QB Fajardo is a game time decision for the Als.

Although the Als are 2nd to last in terms of sacks allowed they have only allowed 3 in their last two outings.  Last week the Als also had four OLs ranked in the top ten for performance against the pass rush by PFF analysis.    The Als are also last in sacks made but the addition of last year’s outstanding western defensive player DL Lemon two games ago started to pay dividends last week as he made 2 sacks, an INT and was the 4th rated DL by PFF analysis. 

Taking this all together makes this a fine play to lay the points and go with the Als.   

The Tigers have won three straight with a pair of shutouts in the mix.  They will face the Red Sox where they have had very little success in the past.  However, with the Sox sporting an ugly 3.4/6.4 runs for and against and a bullpen ERA of over 8.00 in their last ten games, I like the Tigers' chances on Friday.  Chris Sale returns from the IL for Boston.  With just two short rehab appearances to date, I doubt we will see any length at all from Sale. Do not expect much support from the relievers.  Adding to their woes, the Sox are not hitting well at all recently.  In fact the Tigers, not known for offense, are outhitting them, especially for average.  Tigers' lefty Skubal looked very sharp against the Rays, pitching into the 6th and allowing zero ER's.  While he has had a couple of rough outings since his return from the IL, four of his six appearances have been shutouts.  The Tigers' bullpen has been performing well in recent games.  Boston is a firm favorite today, but I am wagering on the Tigers to at least keep this one close.  Take Detroit on the run line at +1 1/2.

The Pirates, buoyed by a series spit with the Braves and a series win over the Brewers, are home to the 2 -8 Reds on Friday.  Two good young pitchers start.  Abbott, the Reds' lefty has impressed this season.  He has pitched 70 innings in just two months and it might be starting to show, as his last two appearances have been poor, allowing 10 runs in just 9 innings pitched.  Oviedo has been the reverse.  He has a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts, allowing just 2 runs in his last 20 innings pitched.  He has had good support from the Pirates' pen in his last starts, winning all three games.  It is the Reds' bullpen that has really struggled lately, accumulating a massive 7.65 ERA L10.  The Pirates surprisingly have the edge on offense as well in recent action; .246 BA/.794 OPS compared to .203/.654 OPS.  The Reds are a streaky team and it appears that a bit of the wind has gone out of their young sails of late.  I like the Pirates, an underdog, to win this game outright.

Treble winner Man City visits newly promoted Championship winner Burnley for the EPL opener.  Their last meeting in the FA Cup quarterfinals in March was a humbling return for Burnley manager and longtime Man City star Kompany as they were dominated 6-0.  Burnley still has no answer on the back end for Haaland and Alvarez, who scored 3 and 2 times each in that game and are likely starters for this rematch.  City used a rotation squad for that game and might for this fixture as well, as the Super Cup match against Sevilla is on the 16th.  That should not prevent Guardiola’s side from continuing their dominant run of form against the Clarets.  Many City is 15-1-0 in their last 16 against Burnley.  In their last 11 against Burnley Man City has scored five or more goals five times, outscoring them 40-1 over that span.  Burnley’s last goal against City was in Dec. 2019.

Even with some solid additions that should prevent relegation, Burnley doesn’t match up well against City.  Last season’s leading scorer Tella is back at Southhampton and his replacement Amdouni may take a while to gel with his new squad.

Kovacic should ably replace Gundogan in the City midfield and Ake and De Bruyne should be available for selection.

Laying the goals and going with City is a solid choice to get you into the new season on the right foot (pun intended).

These are two teams from different planets.  Bombers are coming off a thrashing of the Lions while the Elks were shutout by the Lions the week before their bye.  The Bombers are 6-2 while the Elks are 0-8 and on a 21-game home losing streak.  It makes for a wild money line and lots of points for the spread lines.   

The Bombers are first in seven offensive categories while the Elks are last in 5 different defensive categories.   There is no need to discuss the Elks’ sorry offensive stats rankings.  They are starting 3rd string QB, Canadian Ford, hoping to jump start an offense coming off its second shutout of the season.  Given that the Bombers are 1st in sacks made and the Elks are 6th in sacks allowed it could be a long night for Ford. 

Taking a close look at recent point spread history for these teams gives credence to the expectation of the Bombers to lay the points as high as they will be.  The Bombers are 5-3 ATS in their L8 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Elks.  In their last 3 vs. the Elks they have won by at least 14 points.  The Elks, having lost 21 in a row at home are 3-18 ATS in that stretch, are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 this season and 0-4 ATS after a bye week.  None of this bodes well for the Elks so it is clear we should lay the points and take the Bombers on this one.   

The probable starters for Thursday’s early game are relative youngsters with limited major league experience.  Elder has had considerable success for the Braves (8-3 record), while Falter is just getting started with the Pirates after a tough start to the year with the Phillies.  Elder blew his last start against the Cubs but the two before that were solid outings with 1 and 2 ERs allowed.  In Falter’s lone start for the Pirates, he pitched a respectable 4 innings and allowed only 1 ER.

Both bullpens have solid relievers available to be called upon with Atlanta’s available relief pitchers owning a slightly lower ERA.

Where these two teams are really separated is at the plate.   Atlanta has led the majors in avg. and OPS for most of the season and over the last 15 days they are still 1st in both avg. and OPS.  They also do well against LH starters with the 2nd best avg and best OPS in the mojors.  The Pirates don’t measure up here as they are in the bottom quarter of the league vs. RH starters and bottom half of the majors over the last 15 days in both avg and OPS.  Atlanta’s record vs. LH starters is 14-6 while the Pirates record vs. RH starters is 35-44.  The Braves also sport a 25-13 record for day games while the Pirates are a mediocre 21-27 for day games. 

To further cement this call on the spread the Braves have averaged 7 runs/9 innings over their last 7 games while the Pirates have only averaged 4.4 runs/9 innings.  That difference alone should be more than enough to justify laying the points and going with the Braves.