The Jays came back Tuesday night after a couple of blow out losses with a solid shutout of the Marlins.  Wednesday’s probable pitcher, reliable veteran Gausman, should continue this trend.  In 4 of his last 5 starts he has given up 1 earned run or less.  The Jays have a 5-0 record in his last 5 starts vs. teams with a winning record.  Against the Marlins, apart from the blowout loss on Monday, the Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the Marlins.

Marlins’ probable starter Alcantara has had 5 earned runs against in 2 of his last three starts and his ERA in June is 5.12.

The Marlins have a solid bullpen but have 4 relievers out right now.  The Jays bullpen used 3 of their top men on Tuesday but none threw more than 15 pitches.

Lately the Jays bats have been near the middle of the pack in the majors but the Marlins have been in the bottom ¼ .  Take the Jays for the win on this one.

Everything seems to be tilting towards the Cubs on this one.  Stroman and the Cubs are on streaks and Oviedo and the Pirates are not.  Stroman and the Cubs just beat Oviedo and the Pirates 7-2 on June 15th.  Oviedo only lasted 4.1 innings and gave up 4 earned runs. 

The Cubs bullpen has an ERA of 3.00 in their last 10.  The Pirates bullpen has been atrocious in their last 10 with an ERA of 9.51 and a WHIP of 2.01. 

At a club level the Cubs scored an average of 6.7 runs in their last 7 while the Pirates have struggled with only 2.7 runs/game.  In their last 7 the Pirates have lost by an average of 4.86 runs.  The Cubs are 9-1 in their last 10 vs. the Pirates and 4-1 in their last 5 in Pittsburgh.  Overall recently the Cubs are 7-3 while the Pirates are 2-8.  All of these add up to an evening where the Cubs cover the spread and then some. 

Both of the probable starters, Lynch for the Royals and Lorenzen for the Tigers have had their struggles lately but Lynch has been really up against it.  Royals are 0-6 in his last 6 road starts.  His team is on a 1-4 slide while the Tigers are on a 4-1 streak.  The Tigers have averaged 6 runs/9 against LHPs while the Royals have averaged only 3.51 runs/9 vs. RHP. If Lynch struggles early his bullpen has had a 4.71 ERA in their L10.  The Tigers’ bullpen has had a 3.10 ERA.

When it comes to hitting the Tigers have been hot lately with the 6th best OPS in their L7 while the Royals are mired down near the bottom of the majors.  All this adds up to a bucketful of stats that have the Tigers better than 1.5 runs better than the Royals.  These are reasons to expect the Tigers to cover the spread.

The 3-7 Mets travel to meet up with the Astros on Monday.  Both teams are underachieving this year; the Mets more-so I suppose.  They are 16 -23 on the road and very poor when facing an above.500 team.  The Astros, also 3-7, were swept by the Reds, so should be primed for a better effort. Scherzer has struggled in his last three starts.  He still gets his strikeouts but he has been hit at a .333 clip in June.  He'll face another strikeout pitcher in the Astros' young right-hander  Hunter Brown.  Brown has at times been uneven, but is definitely trending in  the right direction this season.  He is giving much needed innings in his appearances.  His last start was a seven inning shutout.

The offenses are average at the moment.  Houston is certainly missing Alvarez.  On "defense" it is no contest.  The Astros are second in  the league in runs allowed, and while their pen struggled on Sunday, that has hardly been the norm. The Mets still have a long list of injured pitchers.  Time was, Scherzer was close to a sure thing, however I'm wagering on the rookie Brown and the home team Astros to win on Monday.

I am wagering on the Red Sox at home in the second game of the double header with NY on Sunday.  Severino has not looked himself in June, struggling to a 10.54 ERA while being hit at a .349 clip this month.  The Green Monster could figure prominently on Sunday if he keeps pitching as he has.  He will face right hander Brayan Bello, who has been very steady in May and June, allowing 3 runs once in that period and 2 or less in his other appearances.  He had a great start against the Yankees in his last outing, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits over 7 innings.

The Yankees are really missing Judge and are 2nd last in team hitting over the last 15 games, with a .203 BA and .643 OPS.  They are hitting under .200 against right handers lately.  The Red Sox have climbed all the way to fourth in team hitting in the last 7 games. . The Yankees have the edge in relief pitching, but Bello's starts have been getting longer.  Take the Sox to win.

Everyone has high hopes for Bo Levi-Mitchell in Hamilton.  He did very little to justify those hopes in week 1 and things are looking tougher in week 2 against the Argo’s tough defence.  His O-line is more banged up this week with Van Zeyl’s replacement Saxelid now being questionable.  Top receiver White is also questionable.

It looks like 2022 all-star and CFL interceptions leader Jamal Peters is back in the fold after being let go by the Falcons.  He lined up as a starter during training this week.  He along with Al’s defensive MOP Pickett, will bring last year’s top secondary back up to snuff.  Although Grey Cup MOP Muamba looks like he will be out, newcomer MLB Williams, brought in from BC should help to pick up the slack as well along with all star McManis.  Also, free agent DL Orimolade brought in from Calgary will improve the D-line as they lick their chops after seeing Levi-Mitchell get sacked 3 times in week 1.  None of this bodes well with Levi-Mitchell’s attempts at resurrecting his career, especially since the Argo’s had a week to digest Mitchell’s game film against the Bombers.

This will be Grey Cup reliever, Chad Kelly’s first year as a starter but his confidence is sky high and with a former CFL QB as his coach, Dinwiddie, he should be well prepared after seeing the film of the TiCat’s defence getting steamrolled by the Bombers in week 1.

The Argos Coach Dinwiddie is 6-2 vs. the TiCats and 4-0 at BMO field.  With an extra week of prep due to the bye and a league low five 1st year players the TiCats are in tough.  Go with the Argos for the win on the Money Line

The Mariners lost in the 11th on Saturday, but I like their chances to bounce back on Sunday. Their possible "boy wonder" starts again.  It has been an up and down season for Bryce Miller, starting at a record breaking pace only to tank utterly for two games, then bouncing back last time out with a 6 inning 1 run 1 hit appearance.  I am banking on continued success on Sunday.  He is 3-1, 3.57 ERA at home this year.

He'll face veteran White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn.  Lynn straightened out for 3 games in May but mostly his season has been a major disappointment.  He has given up the pitcher's futility measurement of a run an inning in June.  Lynn has been VERY poor on the road and in day games this year.

The Mariners are just .500 for the year, but they are 17-5 against poorer teams.  The M's have a better offense at the moment, and now that their pen is healthy, stronger relief pitching as well.  The White Sox are just 13-24 on the road this year.  Take the Mariners to win at home on Sunday!

The 8-2 Angels shut out the Royals in game one of the series.  I like their chances in Game two as well.  Most things are going well for the Angels, including the way they hit right handed pitching.  They may get some good hacks against Mayers, a long relief/occasional starter who landed in the bigs in mid May.  He started surprisingly well but then took a nose-dive in June with an 11.25 ERA in 8 innings-pitched.  He'll face another right-hander in the Angels' Canning, who has been very consistent since mid-May, allowing 3 runs or less and averaging 6 innings a start.

The 0-10 Royals are really scuffling this year; poor at home and against RH pitching, with a 2.7/6.1 Runs For/Against ratio in their last 7 games.  The Angels are getting fine work from the bullpen, while the Royals' clocks in at 5.41 L10 games.

With these odds, jump on the Angels!! 10!

Now in his second year, Marlins' lefty Braxton Garrett has some definite up-side.  He has pitched well for extended periods, with rare miscues.  He shut out the White Sox with 9 strikeouts in his last start, and has been very good on the road this year.  He will face rookie Jacob Irving (1-3, 5.81), who has had his issues this year, especially after the 4th inning.  He is just 0-2 with a 7.32 ERA at home.  While Miami is just .500 on the road, the Nats are a very poor home team.  The Marlins are a very fine 10-2 in Washington.  Miami isn't a powerhouse offense, but they put up six runs vs the Nationals last night, and are an impressive 7-3 in their last 10 games.  The Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in the league this year.  Take Miami's superior pitching to lead the way to victory on the road today.   9 stars!

The Brewers have lost six games in a row. Perhaps right-hander Teheran can help right the ship.  Now 4 starts into a career re-start, he has been masterful, allowing just 4 runs in 23+ innings, while pitching into the 7th in his last two starts.  The Brewers' pen has been below average so a long start would be helpful today.  Hill, the Pirates' ageless lefty has had his moments this year.  He has a 2-0, 1.98 ERA record in June, but also is prone to some poor starts, 3 of them in May alone.  The Pirates will keep him in as long as possible today as the bullpen has been shockingly bad, with an ERA over 12 in their last 5 games.  Neither the Brewers nor the Pirates have hit well lately.  I am looking for another long quality start from Teheran.  Even the light-hitting Brewers should be able to score some runs against the Pirates' floundering relievers.  take the home side to break through today.  Brewers to win.

Two very disappointing teams square off when the Cards' Mikolas duels the Mets' Tylor Megill on Friday. Mikolas struggled last time out but has otherwise been generally consistent.  He was 3-0, with a 1.89 ERA in May.  If Mikolas' last start was poor, Megill's was off the charts bad, allowing 9 runs in just 3+ innings.  He struggled in May as well, with an opposing batters' average of .292.  I like the Cards to get something going after five straight losses.  Their offense has improved lately, and the Mets' bats have disappointed in recent games.  I favor Mikolas as a starter.  The only issue is the Cardinals' stumbling bullpen has been rung up big time lately, with an ERA of 5.64/L10 games.  Not that the Mets' pen has been that much better lately, and NY has not been hitting right-handers as well.  I 'm expecting the Cardinals to flex some offensive muscle against Megill. Take the Cardinals to lead after five innings and hold on for the victory.

Cease has looked back to normal in his last two games, a relief for the White Sox. The Sox have also looked better, winning six of their last ten, although they have struggled recently.  The Dodgers have slowed down in recent games, and are now below .500 L10.  Grove (8.28 ERA) starts on Thursday. He has not impressed this season, giving up 8 ER in 9 innings in his last 2 starts.  His ERA skyrockets after the third inning.  An early exit is unlikely as the Dodgers' bullpen is struggling in recent games, not surprising considering their long list of pitchers on the IL.  The White Sox bullpen has been excellent with an ERA of 2.25 L10 games. I expect the White Sox to show some offense against Grove.  Take the underdog to win or at least keep it close on the road.

Week 1 went well with a 3-0 record.  I am ready and willing to play for Week 2.  Here is a great play for you.        

Analysis    Calgary and Ottawa both lost in Week 1 and both are loathe to start the season 0-2.  Both teams opened with low scoring results for their offence.  15 for Calgary and 12 for Ottawa.  Typical June results in the CFL for offences that played their QBs for limited minutes in the pre-season and just don’t have the reps to be productive.

Under is 5-1 for the Stamps after a loss in their last 6.  The RedBlacks under is 14-6 after a loss.  So clearly both teams stress defence in the week of prep after a loss.  In their last 7 meetings under is 6-1.

Ottawa still must start number 2 QB Arbuckle as Masoli still isn’t ready.  Arbuckle threw 3 picks against a revamped Alouettes secondary.  Ottawa will be missing starting RB Williams and WR Demon is nicked up but should play.  It will be another long night for the RedBlacks offence.

Calgary QB Maier struggled again against the Lions and will be missing a second O-line starter as Thornton is joining starting LT Coker on IR.  Ottawa got 6 sacks against the Alouettes and harassed Fajardo all game.  Calgary will also be missing last year’s leading rusher Carey and top receiver Henry is questionable.  WR Philpot is still out.  It won’t be a fun night for Maier.

This will be a typical June CFL matchup with defences dominating  and offences suffering from a lack of reps.  Take the under for the total.

The Twins are at home to the 1-9 Tigers today.  They have won four of five games, stand third in runs allowed, and have a fine starter on the mound.  Sonny Gray has yet to give up more than three runs  in thirteen starts this year.  He is particularly tough at home (1.71 ERA) and has given up just one home run to date.  Not that Detroit is know for the long ball.  They are dead last in runs scored this year.  They also have pitching woes, with a combined ERA of 5.94 in their last ten games.

The Tigers lost both ends of a double header on Wednesday.  Add in travel, and you have a very tired team.  Today's Tigers starter lefty Matthew Boyd (5.55 ERA) has had a few good starts but most of them have been similar to his last one, giving up five runs over five innings.  The Twins are heavily and legitimately favored.  While not the hottest offense, they are a very good home team.  I believe they will beat up a demoralized Tigers team today.  Take Minnesota on the run line at -1 1/2.  9 stars!

Probable pitchers Suarez for the Phillies and Kelly for the D-backs are putting together solid seasons.  They just haven’t been able to do it against each others’ teams.  It might have to do with the power both teams display at the plate as of late.  In the last 15 days, D-backs are 2nd in OPS and 6th in avg. while the Phillies are 8th and 4th respectively over the same time period.  Suarez’s last 3 starts against the D-backs has resulted in 13 runs against the Phillies in two of them and 5 in the other; both with totals well over 8.5.  Kelly’s last start against the Tigers ended up with a total of 17!

The Phillies avg 4.61 runs/9 for this season while the D-backs avg 5.25 runs/9 for this season.  Quick math; that’s a total of 9.86 runs/9 when combined.  The D-backs average 5.4 runs against LH starters while the Phillies avg. 4.7 runs against RH starters.  It all adds up to a total over 10  Take the over for the win.

Probable pitcher Ober is working on a solid season.  His 2.61 ERA and .97 WHIP are well earned.  He has been in some very low scoring pitching duels.  14 of his last 15 starts have been under totals.  The Brewers probable pitcher Rea is a step below with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.  3 of his last 15 starts have seen him leave in the 3rd inning and 6 have been over totals. 

Reas’ bullpen has struggled over the last 10 games with a 6.25 ERA while the Twins’ bullpen has had an ERA of 2.93.  At home the Twins’ bullpen has a 2.93 ERA while the Brewers’ bullpen has a 4.42 ERA on the road.  All this leads to a lot of innings of higher scoring for the Twins.  Expect them to win and cover the spread of -1.5.

Vegas are heavy favorites and deservedly so.  Unless some unlikely magic happens this should be the end of the road for the scrappy Panthers.  Bobrovsky has been shown to be mortal in this series with a 3.47 GA avg. and dismal .850 save %, while Hill has continued his run with a 2.25 GA avg and .920 save %.   Hill has only allowed 2 goals/game in regulation in the entire finals. 

On the offensive side, Vegas has outscored Florida 12-4 at home when they have the last change and can dictate matchups against the Panthers’ inferior depth.  This has been further enabled by Vegas’ 100% PK  rate and their 33% PP rate in their last 5 playoff games.

Vegas’ physical superiority has also been demonstrated as Panther players are struggling on the injury front as Duclair,  Luostarinen and most notably Tkachuk are all struggling and questionable for game 5.  And we can’t forget that Gudas is also in rough shape and was not very noticeable in game 4,

Vegas is 7-0 in their last 7 at home against the Panthers.  They also know how to close out a series as evidenced by their decisive 6-0 win to finish off Dallas, the 5-2 closeout against the Oilers and the 4-1 series ending win over Winnipeg.  Notice the theme here. The Panthers will be even more dispirited than those three teams. The Knights should win this one by 2 or more goals which offers a healthy payout. 

Another subway series starts Tuesday.  Both teams have had their struggles lately.  Yankees are 2-3 while the Mets a 1-4 in their last 5.  In their last 10 the Yankees have hit .173 against RHP.  The Mets aren’t much better at .200.  Both are in the bottom half of the majors in avg and OPS.  Star slugger Judge is out for the Yankees and their bullpen which has been great this season has 6 pitchers out with injury.  Both teams can’t lose, so what is going to make the difference Tuesday night. 

Probable pitcher Severino came back in late May from a rehab assignment and has been struggling mightily to find is old form.  The oft injured starter has been uneven at best with an ERA of 8.31 in his last two starts.  The Mets’ veteran Scherzer is having a solid year with 4 of his last 5 starts resulting in 1 earned run or less. 

The Yankees are 1-5 in the last 5 at the Mets’ Citi Field.  Take the Mets to win this one. 

Blue Jays’ probable pitcher Bassitt has been on fire for the last 7 games with a 2.02 ERA and a scintillating .88 WHIP.  All season, except for 3 outliers, his earned runs have been 2 or lower.  In Kremer’s last 7 for the Orioles he has had a 3.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.  Respectable but not in the same league as Bassitt this last while.  Both bullpens are coming off a night off.  Baltimore’s has looked better for the season but over the last 10 their ERA is 4.15 compared to Toronto’s marginally better 3.76 ERA over the same time period.  Effective reliever Coulombe will miss the game for the Orioles.

The Blue Jays’ bats have been in the top ¼ of the majors for the last 15 days while the Orioles’ have been in the top 1/2 of the majors . 

The Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 starts in Baltimore.  Both teams have been hot lately but it looks like the Orioles are going to cool down for this one.  Take the Blue Jays for the win.

The 3-7 Mariners have pitching woes.  In their last 10 games both starters and relievers have averaged over 6.00 ERA.  Their rookie Miller started his rookie season on a record pace, only to fall completely flat 2 starts ago, allowing 15 runs in 7 innings in his last 2 starts.  In picking the M's as a favorite, the odds-makers are clearly expecting a better start from Miller.  I disagree.  The Marlins will run out Luzardo on Monday.  Mostly up and only occasionally off, he has allowed just a single run in 4 of 6 of his last appearances.  He has a massive 86 strikeouts to date, and the Mariners strike out a ton.

The Marlins have been very good at limiting runs of late, allowing 1 or less in 6 of 10 games.  They are also hitting better than usual, creeping up to 11th in OPS in their last 15 games.  Miami isn't know as a strong road team , but most other aspects, I believe they have the advantage at the moment.   Take the road underdog to win for Monday.

The 3-7 Cardinals have struggled in June.  The offense has dropped off, and their relievers have staggered to a 5.40 ERA over the last 10 games.  Cards' lefty Liberatore (1-2, 6.00) has seen limited action and success.  Other than a fine first start to the season, he has been giving up more than a run an inning.   The Giants have been solid on the road and a better than .500 team in June.  They are hitting the ball much better than the Cardinals lately, 5.6 runs a game as compared to 3.3 for St. Louis.  The Giants have hit left-handers at a startling .368 clip lately, and have had fine relief pitching in their last 10 games.  Today's starter Logan shone in May (3-0, 1.30 ERA), but has not been quite as stingy in June.  He gave up 4 runs over 5+ innings at Coors Field last time out.  He is a great candidate to bounce back this time around. Webb is also good a bet for a longer start, having pitched into the 7th on most of his outings this year.  Look for the Cardinals to continue their poor play at home.  The Giants, a slight favorite today, will steal this game on the road. 10*!

Two improving young right-handers square off when the Red Sox meet the Yankees today.  Bello had a 2.67 ERA in May: giving up three runs in his last start to the Rays was a recent high.  Schmidt struggled at times early in the season but has been solid in his last three starts with a 2.16 ERA.  The Yankees still have one of the best pens in the business.  Neither team has been hitting well, tied for 21st in the league in OPS in their last seven games.  We don't generally think of the two teams as low scoring, but the under has figured in six of eight of Boston's recent games, and in five of six Yankees' starts.  the "judge" in not in session today. Let's stick with a low total again.  Take the Under this evening. 9*s!

These are the two with the lowest total for expected wins this season in the West.  And rightfully so after they both struggled to get out of the basement all last season.  The Elks haven’t won at home since 2019.  They will finally win some but not this one.

They made some big changes in the off season that will take a while to come together.  Three new targets for QB Cornelius in MOP finalist Lewis and newcomers Moore and Dunbar should help him improve his numbers.  RB Brown who came in part way through last season and was very effective will have a whole season to provide another option for Cornelius.  The weak link in all of this is the O-line which made things difficult for their QB.  Trying to sort things out with all his new receivers will be difficult under pressure

The Roughriders also had O-line problems last season.  The biggest difference is that their D-line has some emerging stars in Laniers and Robertson and newcomer Johnson and solid Dean at LB that will be able to better take advantage of the Elks weak O-line.  The Roughriders also have veteran QB Harris who has come over from the Alouettes with teammate Wieneke as well as Walker from the Elks.  They have a better chance of gelling quickly than the Elks passing game does.  And the Roughriders also have the dynamic duo of Morrow and Hickson at RB that were very successful before going down with season ending injuries last season.  Grab the points and look for the Roughriders to score the minor upset.

 The Diamondbacks have won four straight, two against the Tigers, and all four on the road.  Those last four wins have all been by four or more runs.  Their ace is on the mound on Sunday.  Gallen allowed more hits than usual against the Braves but he still held them to 2 ER.  That is about average for the right-hander, on usually about six innings of work.  The Tigers, now 1-9, haven't been getting many innings from their starters.  Sunday's starter Wentz is one of the culprits, with most of his outings under five innings.  He has given up almost a run an inning, too many the result of home runs.  The Tigers have a very long list of injuries, most of them pitchers.  They are last in runs-scored this season, and their bullpen has been overworked, and just average in effectiveness lately.  The D-backs are a strong fifth in runs scored and hitting left-handed pitching at a .310 clip in their last ten games.  Take Arizona on the run line at -1 1/2.  10*!

The Mariners are struggling, especially on this road trip.  They're just 1-5 so far and have given up ten runs or more in three of those games.  The Angels have won five straight, limiting runs to two or less in three of five starts. Angels' lefty Sandoval's last start was short and poor.  While he hasn't been as effective as he was last year, he is much better at home and has yet to pitch poorly in consecutive starts.  The Mariners rookie Woo was rudely greeted by the Rangers in his first career start.  It is out of the frying pan and into the fire for Woo, as the Angels, top seven in OPS/L15 games, have some big bats as well.  The Mariners are hitting below .200 in their last ten games, and their usually strong relief corps have an ERA of over six.  The Angels are getting solid pitching from the pen.  Seattle's run differential is a very ugly 2.7/7.3 L7 games.  Take the Angels, a good home team, to win.

As expected, we saw a much tighter-checking game three, with significantly fewer shots on both sides.  Play-off Bob looked sharp but the Panthers did a much better job in allowing him to see the puck.  While the Panthers didn't shut down Vegas's big three in Marchessault, Eichel and Stone, they did at least limit their opportunities to 8 shots on net in total.  The Knights are a very well coached team, exceptional at adjusting from game to game, and at limiting scoring on the road.  They limited Dallas at home to just 3 goals in 3 games.  I expect game four could again be low scoring, especially if Bobrovsky continues to rebound.  Hill wasn't quite as sharp in game three.  Look for the Knights' oversized defenders to come to his aid this time out.  Take Saturday's game to again go under.

The Guardians are finally hitting with some authority, climbing to 5th in OPS in the last week.  The Astros, just 4-5 in June, are missing Alvarez, and aren't producing as well as expected lately.  The Astros' 28 year old rookie France starts today.  He has been an effective pitcher but has not received much in the way of run support lately.  He'll face a returning Triston McKenzie who was absolutely lights out in his first game back.  The Guardians' bull pen is, as usual, very strong, significantly better than the Astros' at the moment.  I am a big fan of Mckenzie, so it is great news for a surging Guardians side that he is back and pitching as normal.  take the Guardians at home today.

The OU lines in this series have gotten lower and lower. They went from 218.5 to 216.5 to 213. Now, the Game 4 line is the lowest yet. Too low. Five of Denver's last eight visits here have still gone over the total. Now trailing 2-1, the Heat have seen the over go 4-1 their last 5, when behind in a series. You saw what happened in Game 2, when they were down 1-0. That game ended up with 219, the highest scoring game of the series. The Nuggets average 115.6 ppg. The Heat are going to have to score to keep up. This game goes OVER! 10* Playoff TOY

The Bombers have decided to run it back, keeping a veteran laden roster for another go at the Grey Cup.  They have the least amount of changes in a league that has huge turnover year to year.  This should be effective at least for the first few games of the season as they will all be on the same page.  Only center Couture is gone from the O-line (although he was injured much of last year and replaced by this year’s starter Kolankowski).  All the skill positions on offence have returned and on defense Bighill (MLB) and DEs Jeffcoat and Jefferson are back.  This should bode well to start the season but lets check back on this in the Fall.

Hamilton is a different story.  They brought in declining QB Levi-Mitchell and star MLB Thurman from Calgary, star RB Butler from BC and DL Sayles from the Bombers to name a few newcomers.  They will take awhile to gel.  There is a good argument that Levi-Mitchell may not thrive.  Behind one of the best CFL O-lines in history (by the metric of sacks allowed) and with the leading CFL rusher Careyin Calgary, he has declined precipitously over the last few seasons.  In 2021 he threw for 8 yds/completion and a sad 10 TD/13 Int ratio.  In 2022 it was a 9 TD/6 Int ratio where due to injuries and performance he ceded the starters’ role to Maier.  His Hamilton O-line is not going to afford him the same luxury.  This may not be pretty. 

Part of the T-Cats’ personnel turnover was not positive as they lost three all-star starters in the secondary.  Winnipeg’s vaunted passing attack should excel.

The Bombers’ home record was 8-1 in 2022 while the TiCats’ road record was 2-7.

In their last 5 in June, against the spread the Bombers are 4-1.  The TiCats are 1-4 against the spread vs. Winnipeg and 1-3-1 against the spread in Winnipeg. Clearly you should lay the points and go with the Bombers to beat the spread.

The White Sox are heating up, sweeping Detroit and taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees.  They are starting their ace, but Cease has had a disappointing season so far.  He now could be emerging from his funk if his last start is an indication.  He'll face Eury Perez, the Marlins' young and touted right-hander.  Barely out of his teens, he has a 2.25 ERA to start his career.  His last two starts have been 5 run shutouts.  Perez appears to be limited to 5 innings and Cease has not pitched for length so this game may come down to the bullpen and the offense.  It is no surprise that the Marlins have the better bullpen, but they've also hit a ton lately, now 4th in the league in OPS over the last week.

I am not certain the Cease is "fixed", but it appears Perez can hold his own, and I have more confidence in the Marlins in the later innings at the moment.  Take the underdogs to win on the road on Friday.

The Orioles return home after an indifferent road trip.  They are a very good home team this year, up against a Royals team that is just 9-21 in away games.  Wells starts for the O's today.  He has been solid more often than not, with a ton of strikeouts this season.  He can be a victim of too many long balls, but is very sharp (2.45 ERA) at home this season.  Lefty Daniel Lynch has appeared in just two games since returning from injury, and has looked just average so far.  With one of the worst pens in the business, don't expect much support from the KC relievers today.

The Royals' run differential is a very unhealthy 2.4/5.1 in their last seven games.  They are a poor hitting team, especially so against right-handers. I expect a big day from Wells and the Orioles' top eight lineup today. Take Baltimore on the run line at -1 1/2. 9*!

This rematch of last season’s West semi-final  is a great way to start the season.  Historically, the Stamps have a wide edge in games at McMahon Stadium but so many of those legends have moved on.  Thurman and Orimolade are gone from the interior of a stout defense.  From one of the most outstanding O-lines in recent history, left tackle Dennis is gone and his replacement Coker is on IR.  Left guard Williams is also on IR so Jake Maier’s back is going to be vulnerable.  Starter Jamerson from the secondary is also on IR.  Rick Campbell and his savy staff will have taken notice.

This will also be a new experience for QB Maier as he is the man this year and no longer the eager understudy.  It will be a new kind of pressure.  BC shut him down in the West semi-final.  It will be interesting to see what adjustments are made.

Vernon Adams will have to prove that he can continue to be a solid game manager and not just “Big Play V.A.”  It looked that way last season as he threw for 6 TDs and only 1 interception in the six games he started and went 12 for 12 in preseason.  His trio of 1000+ yard receivers, Rhymes, Whitehead and Hatcher (on IR for this game) are back.  Cottoy, Hollins and McInnis are all superb options that will make up for Hatchers’ absence.  B.C. is also missing an O-line starter as newcomer Schleuger is out.  They are hopeful Couture (from the Bombers) can mesh with his old teammate Chungh on this years’ O-line.

It is sort of traditional to go with the under for at least the first couple of games of the season as defences are ahead of the offences but both of these squads look ready to put up points; especially BC.  That would be the easy play but the hot play is BC to cover the spread by winning the game.

Bobrovsky is going to start.  I agree he deserves at least this but it sure looks like Vegas has figured him out;  screen him and shoot high to the opposite side as he tries to peek around the screen.  Remember, in their last 12 games Vegas has seen the opposing goalie pulled 5 times.  At the other end of the rink, Aidan Hill looks fresh, unflappable and dialed in.  The Panthers can’t screen him to the same extent with all those huge defenders on the Knights’ blueline (6’6’, 6’4”, 6’3”, 6’2” x2, and tiny 6’1’ 209 lb Martinez) boxing them out.

In their last 10 games Vegas has averaged 4.2 goals for and 2.1 goals against while the Panthers are at 2.4 and 2.6 respectively. 

On the injury front Gudas is probable but really?  He was already hurt and that hit staggered him.  His replacement, Fitzgerald exposed the lack of depth on the Panthers’ blueline.  Karlsson is probable with an illness for the Golden Knights. 

The discipline issue is real for the Panthers.  They have had to kill 32 penalties these playoffs compared to 23 for the Golden Knights.  Vegas’ powerplay has come alive at an inopportune time for the Panthers.

The key stat for Vegas though is their ability to play lockdown hockey on the road even when the other team has last change.  The are 32-8 on the road while the Panthers are an OK but less remarkable 27-16 at home.  Vegas has lost only two on the road these playoffs.  Following a win this season Vegas is 26-9 on the road.

It all adds up to taking Vegas on the Money Line.

After a blow-out loss, the Panthers slink back to Florida for game three.  Location was highly significant for the Panthers in the regular season:  they were a .500 club on the road, and much better at home.  The Knights were actually a better on the road than at home this year.  They played a very different style, tight-checking and composed, and the totals reflected this.  The Panthers are now at critical mass and absolutely must play with more discipline and composure, limiting penalties.  They have had a couple of days of soul-searching.  Vegas, with solid defense and goal-tending from Hill, has been able to limit the Panthers' quality scoring chances.  I believe this will continue on Thursday.  I also believe that the Panthers will rebound and find their composure.  They'll have the final change, so with the right personnel on the ice, perhaps they can cool off the Eichel, Marchessault, Barbashev line.  Look for the return of the Florida forecheck, and a better game from Bobrovsky.  The Total has climbed to six.  Take the Under on Thursday. 10* Playoff TOY

You know the setup. The Nuggets won Game 1 and the Heat came back to win Game 2. The Heat may have stolen homecourt advantage but the Nuggets are still heavily favored to win the series. Most shops have them in the -275 range to do so. That means that they're expected to win at least one game at Miami. No time like the present to make that happen either. The only other time that the Nuggets were tied in a series was Game 5 against the Suns. Denver won by 16 and only trailed for 14 seconds of that entire game. The Nuggets are 3-0 straight-up and ATS their last three when tied in a series and they're 12-7-2 ATS when coming off an upset loss as favorite. The Heat are only 7-13 ATS when playing with 2 day's rest. Lay the small number with the Nuggets in Game 3. *Playoff GOY

This is an old guy special.  Probable pitchers, Scherzer for the Mets and Morton for the Braves are both almost into their 40’s.  Morton is still crafty but has struggled lately with 3 straight losses, averaging less than 6 innings and almost 4 earned runs in each of those 6 inning appearances(ie a 6.00 ERA pace).  Morton is 1-7 in his L8 starts with 4 days rest. 

The Mets have been on a 4 game skid as of late but are 4-0 in Scherzer's last 4 starts.  Scherzer himself has allowed 1, 1 and 0 earned runs while averaging 6.2 innings in his last three appearances.  Both bullpens had three relievers pitch an inning each last night so neither is tired. 

Between Scherzer’s mastery and the motivation from Tuesday night’s loss to the Braves, the Mets should overcome.  Take the Mets on the Money Line

Davies (Diamondbacks probable pitcher) is slowly getting back up to speed after time on the injury list and rehabbing in the minors.  He has gradually increased his workload to get back to where he was last season.  He now has two starts under his belt since he was shut down at the end of April.  His numbers are all out of whack but if he can get 4 or 5 decent innings in his bullpen can take it from there.  In their last 10 Arizona’s relievers have a 2.60 ERA and 1.18 WHIP

Corbin doesn’t have that kind of support.  He has been working steady but his numbers are atrocious with an ERA that was well above 6 until recently but still is near 5 and a WHIP that spent part of April near 2 and now is 1.48.  His bullpen has an ERA of .655 and a WHIP of 1.81 in their last 10 games, so the pressure is on him to last as long as he is able.

The D-backs have an OPS that is 9th best in the majors that must be eagerly awaiting this match up. 

The Nationals are 11-18 vs. clubs with a winning record while the D-backs are 21-13 vs. clubs with a losing record.  The Nationals also have poor records at home (12-19) and at night (12-20) while the D-backs have winning records in both those situations.  This is a clear choice to pick the Arizona Diamondbacks in Washington Wednesday night.

Probable pitchers Gilbert (Mariners) and Musgrove (Padres) have had solid results lately.  Musgrove, an NL all star last season, is coming back from a toe injury and is rounding back into form.  He has surrendered 0 and 1 earned runs in his last two starts.  Gilbert has a WHIP of .98 and his ERA has been dropping in May.  His last start against the hard hitting Yankees wasn’t great but the two before that were solid.  Both pitchers should have success against hitters that are struggling.  The Padres have hit .213 against RHP in their last 10 while the Mariners have only hit .197.

In terms of defense both teams have kept opponents’ OPS below .700. The Padres' bullpen has been solid, the Mariners', less so but Gilbert should last long enough to keep it from being an issue.

The Padres have been under 4 of their last 5 games, and Mariners have been under for 2 of their last 4.  Both teams are near the bottom ¼ of the majors in avg and OPS.  All of this should go together nicely to keep the total under on Tuesday night.

Probable pitcher Gibson (Orioles) has been hot lately.  Consecutive wins against Toronto, the Yankees, and Cleveland with an average of 1.33 earned runs against in each start were impressive.  Peralta for the Brewers is coming off two losses, one where he only lasted 2.1 innings against the Giants. In May his ERA was 5.61 and his WHIP ballooned to 1.68.  Neither bullpen has been outstanding over the last 10 but Baltimore’s is coming off a day of rest.  Both bullpens were effective before that last 10.

The Brewers are 29th (second to last) in the majors in both avg and OPS so their bats aren’t going to scare anyone.  And they have a .193 avg against righthanders. 

The Orioles are 20-10 on the road compared to a pedestrian 16-10 at home for the Brewers.  Their night records are 25-10 and 17-16 respectively.  The other interesting stat is that the Orioles are 13-2 when the total is set from 8-8.5.  It all adds up to a solid play for the Orioles as slight underdogs (+107 as of this writing) for Tuesday night. 

Stats and records from previous rounds and the regular season don’t matter so much now.  They both played in a separate conference for the playoffs and the regular season.  Except for their split in regular season games this past season,  we have little to no experience of these teams together.  Game 1 gave us more of what we have seen in one sense as their last 11 games against each other over the past 4 seasons had the home team with a 10-1 record.  That includes the Panthers with a 0-6 record over their last 6 in Vegas, which gives us one data point.

Panthers’ powerplay was at 0% Saturday night, while Vegas was at 28%.  Given the Panthers’ interest in mixing it up Saturday, this gives us another data point in favor of the Knights.  Over the last 10 games the Panthers’ have averaged only 2.6 goals/game, even as they were successful.  The Knights have averaged 3.6 goals/game.  Another check mark for the Knights.  Over their last 8 games head to head the favorite is 7-1.  Monday night Vegas is the favorite.  All the above relevant data points, point to Vegas.  Take the Knights on the Money Line.

The total in Game One went as expected, with Bobrovsky allowing four goals against for just the first time in eleven games.  I doubt that his extended rest will prove beneficial in this series.  Let's not forget that in spite of his recent play, Bobrovsky had a pair of five goals-against games early in the Boston series.  Adin Hill continued to impress with a .943 save % on 35 shots.  On offense, Eichel had a pair of assists in Game one.  Stone was held scoreless but had seven shots on net.  Tkachuk took himself out of the game for the final five minutes, and was also held pointless.  I am still convinced that offenses, especially Vegas' will rule the day in this series.  That same 5 1/2 total is readily available.  We have a small sample size, but recent games with the Knights as the home side have all gone over.  Take the Over again in Game two.

The Rangers are a hot ball team at the moment, 8-2 L10, hitting at the top of the league, while allowing 3 or less runs in 8 of 10 games.  They've had 4 recent games with 10 or more runs scored.  Meanwhile the Cardinals were just swept by the Pirates.  Their offense has tanked; they've scored 3 or less runs in 9 of their last 10 games. They have struggled on the road and against left-handed pitching.  Wainwright has 5 starts under his belt since returning from injury.  It has not been smooth sailing.  His last start was an improvement, but he was lucky to allow just 3 runs while giving up 9 hits and a pair of walks. Opposing batters are hitting well over .300 against him in May. His mound opponent is lefty Martin Perez.  After a sensational April he has had VERY mixed results in May, including 2 solid starts along with 3 poor ones. The Rangers have been able to score more than Perez has given up when he has stumbled lately.  Wainwright has been one of the best of his generation of pitchers, but at 41, one wonders how many good starts he has in the tank.  I'll take the Rangers potent offense and solid bullpen to win the day on Monday.

RH Soroka started for the first time in three years, lasting 6 innings and allowing four runs.  That game was against the A's.  Today he will face  RH Gallen and the D-backs.  Gallen wasn't as overpowering in May (3.34 ERA) as he was in April, but he has been absolutely overpowering at home, posting an 0.64 ERA while going 6-0 in six starts.  Arizona is 6-1, hitting well lately and are 7th in OPS vs right-handers this season.  The Braves are in a bit of a slump at 3-5.  They managed just 8 runs total in the Oakland series, and have seen 4 straight Unders.  Both bullpens are effective at the moment.  As promising as Soroka once was, the jury is still out on his early effectiveness.  The Jury is in on Gallen. Gallen is a very fine starter, especially at home.  Take Arizona to win game three of the series today.

The Rangers are hard to beat at home, and have taken two straight from the Mariners.  Make it three on Sunday, although it might not be as easy a win as Saturday's thumping.  Mariners' wunderkind rookie Miller off to a very impressive career start, spiraled back down to earth courtesy of the Yankees, who tore him up with a pair of homers and eight runs over four plus innings.  We will see how the Kid responds against an even better-hitting team.  The Rangers are the top offense lately, hitting .304/.855 OPS over the last 15 games.  Texas will run out May's AL Pitcher of the Month in  right-hander Nathan Eovaldi.  He was 4-0 for the month with an 0.96 ERA and 31 strikeouts.  Very good lenth in his starts, including a complete game in his second last appearance.

The Mariners have won just one of four games, allowing a pair of tens and a sixteen run game, highly irregular for a team that prides itself on pitching.  Seattle is 27th in offense over the last week, and 26th against right-handers this season. Irregardless of how Miller pitches, I am on Eovaldi and the Rangers' offense on Sunday.  Take Texas to win.

It’s been quite a ride through the playoffs for us and the teams.  Now is when the Panthers take the truth serum of the Knights.  Are they for real?  Is Bobrovsky for real?  Can Tkachuk keep doing what he’s been doing?  Can the Panther’s patchwork defense keep it together?  Is Paul Maurice a genius?

Looking at Bobrovsky’s save % we think it’s otherworldly.  Hill’s is comparable and in the regular season it is superior to Bobrovsky’s.  Carolina’s approach is volume of shots from wherever (shot heat maps show the vast majority from the outside), so they made it easy for Bobrovsky to look impressive.  Vegas gets to the dirty areas and they will expose Bobrovsky like Carolina never did.

Tkachuk’s playoff history was mediocre before this year.  What’s different about this year?  He’s playing against the Eastern Conference, not the Western Conference.  He has had his way with Carolina, Toronto and surprisingly, Boston with little or no pushback.   Vegas is a different story and he will get push back.

The depth Vegas has upfront will expose the Panthers’ defence and show us that Forsling and Gudas aren’t what we might have thought they were and Marc Staal is not a top four defenceman.  Vegas’ third line with Karlsson, Smith and Marchesault will feast on Staal and the Panthers’ third pairing when they get a chance.  Vegas’ fourth line will punish the Panthers’ in their own end. 

With respect to Paul Maurice we’ll find out when his team comes up against a powerful Vegas team that has quietly worked through the Western Conference under the skilled guidance of Bruce Cassidy who’s former team, the Bruins, sputtered in the playoffs without him.  Take Vegas on the Money Line.

We have seen a stack of unders with the Panthers in the postseason, not in small part due to Bobrovsky's remarkable play.  It is now ten days since he played, so at what point does rest become rust?  He gave up three goals in his last start; I'm wagering that he will do at least the same tonight.  The Panthers are 0-5 in Vegas and those games have gone over to the tune of 4-1.  The Knights rolled out six goals against a very good defensive team in their last game.  The return of Mark Stone and Eichel's first foray into the playoffs have made the Golden Knights an offensive force to be reckoned with.  The Golden Knights have had five days rest and are mostly healthy, a rarity in the past two years. Let's not forget that the Panthers were a top six team in offense this season. Look for goal tending on a less heroic scale and a higher final score.  Take Vegas and the Panthers to go over the total.

The Twins and Guardians didn't score many runs on Friday, and with Allen and Gray on the mound we could see a similar result for Saturday.  The Under is 7-3 in Guardians games, and consistent (5-0-1) in Allen's starts.  Cleveland's rookie lefty is off to a fine season, and off a superlative 7 inning 10 K shutout in his last start.  The Twins' right-hander Gray hasn't been quite as good in May as April, but man, has he pitched well at home (3-0, 1.27 ERA) this year. The teams are supported by two of the most effective bullpens in the league.
Cleveland's offense has been a disappointment all season.  They struggle particularly vs right-handers.  The Twins, at 25th in OPS, have their issues with lefties.  Buxton, Correa and Gallo are all listed as questionable for Saturday, a possible big hit to Minnesota's offense.  Look for another low-scoring game and take the Under on Saturday.

The 6-4 Marlins, seventh in OPS over the last two weeks, are hitting pretty well for a change.  The A's are in their usual spot; dead last with a .173 batting average and a .480 OPS in the last two weeks.  Miami is a good home team and will look to take the second game of the series against the Hapless A's.  Medina, the A's rookie (0-4, 6.83 ERA) hasn't pitched as poorly as his ERA would suggest,  if it weren't for the long ball.  He allowed three in his last start, and eight over 22 innings in May.  He will square off against another rookie, the highly-touted Eury Perez, who has started the season very well.  He shut out the Angels over five innings last time out.  Opposing batters are hitting just .188 against him over his four starts.  The Marlins bullpen has been uneven at times but very effective lately.  The A's pen is the worst in the league.  Take the favored Marlins on the run line today at -1 1/2.  10*!

While the Cubs took 2 of 3 from the Rays, it wasn't the offense leading the way; Chicago scored just 6 runs in the series.  They will need more runs than that with Taillon on the mound.  It has been a remarkably poor month for the right-hander, with zero wins and an ERA over 10.00 in May.  The opposition is hitting a very robust .351 for the month.  His opponent has been the reverse.  Padres' righty Wacha took a few games to get going, but he has been as good as anyone in the MLB in May, giving up just 3 runs in 32 innings pitched.  Add in a very solid bullpen, and it is no wonder the Padres are favored.  Their hitting?  Still surprisingly poor.  They have had the odd high scoring outing lately, but about the best you can say is that they are at least better than the Cubs.   They should get their licks in against Taillon and the Cubs' bullpen.  Chicago isn't very good as a road team this year.  Take San Diego to win this one going away.

After years in the wilderness, Chase Anderson is pitching like it is 2017 when he went 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA.  It is a small sample size so it might be a gamble to wager on continued success, but his mound opponent is hardly tearing up the ball diamond. The Royals' Lyles has had an extremely disappointing season, giving up a run an inning and with an ERA of over eleven in his last three starts.  The 4-6 Rockies are a poor road team, and were just swept by Arizona, however the 3-7 Royals continue to be shockingly poor home team.  KC is just 13-30 this year vs right-handed pitching.  Neither offense has impressed but the Rockies are at least hitting for average lately.  There is little to choose from between the bullpens.  I am wagering on the underdog Rockies today, with Anderson continuing in his winning ways for at lest one more game.

Both teams can play defense but both can also produce plenty of points. Games at Denver average nearly 228 points. When the Heat played here during the season, the teams combined for 117 in the first half and 243 for the game. That O/U line was 224. Over is 7-3 when Miami played with 2 day's rest and the over is also 6-1 when Denver played with 3 or more day's rest. We'll also point out that 11 of 17 games have topped the total, when the Heat were coming off a double-digit victory. All of the above, go with the over to start June right.

The Guardians’ Bibee and the Twins’ Lopez are two young pitchers with very solid results lately.  Since being called up April 26th star prospect Bibee has been meeting the high expectations the Guardians have had for him.  With a sparkling 2.88 ERA and an improving 1.08 WHIP he should have a more impressive win/loss record but he just can’t seem to get any run support from the light hitting Guardians.  In his last outing against the Cards he only allowed 2 hits but was only supported with one run and so he took the loss.  Lopez has racked up 81 SO and if you take out the one game against the powerful Dodgers his improving ERA in May would be 2.77.  Against the Guardians’ 29th best OPS in the majors, Lopez should lock things down well.  The Twins are also in the bottom third of the majors for average and OPS.

Both bullpens have been excellent lately.  In their last 10 Cleveland’s relievers have a 1.31 ERA and in their last 5 it is a miniscule .47.  The Twins bullpen has excelled lately too with a 2.23 ERA in their last 10.

All of the above, combined with the Guardians’ over/under in their last 10 being 2-8 and the Twins’ over/under being 3-7 in their last 10 (one game was over by .5), point clearly to a low scoring affair.  Go with the under to start June right.

The Guardians’ hot young pitcher Bibee has had a great start to his first year.  With a little run support in his last outing against the Cards, the 2 hits he allowed over 6 innings should have provided him a result but all he got was one run and no decision. Two games before that he only allowed 2 hits over 7.2 innings but still ended up with no decision as he was only supported with 1 run.   

The Guardians started off the season near the bottom of the majors in hitting but lately they have turned it around.  Since Bibee last pitched they have been averaging 6.5 runs and 12 hits per game.  This alone should put him over the top but combine it with a bullpen that has had a 1.31 ERA over the last 10 and a miniscule .47 over the last 5 and you have a recipe for success for the Guardians and Bibee.

Pitcher Lopez and the Twins might have something to say about this but their hitting has been in the bottom third of the majors for most of the season.  Lopez started out the season strong but has had mixed results as of late with 3 of his last 7 starts averaging more than one earned run against/inning.  Pick the underdog Guardians for a close win on the Money Line.

As predicted, the Brewers picked on one of the Jays' struggling starters yesterday.  Today, I expect pay-back from Toronto.  Peralta starts for Milwaukee, and his May results were very mixed.  Two of his last three starts were outright poor, including a 2+ inning 10 run debacle last time out.  He has struggled on the road this season as well.   The Brewers aren't getting the same level of relief pitching we have grown accustomed to, with an ERA approaching 5.00 in the last ten games.   Gausman has been super sharp in 9 of 11 starts.  I am banking on another fine one today.  The Jays' offense has been something of a disappointment this season, but their big bats look to be waking up, led by Bichette and Springer at the moment.  They are hitting right-handers at a muscular .327 pace in their last 10 games. The Brew Crew are as usual struggling to score runs.  Look for the Jays to take it to Milwaukee, especially early. 

A pair of strong young right handers face off in Houston tonight.  The Astros' Brown has been sharp lately, allowing just 3 runs over 13 innings in his last two appearances.  Varland has also been effective for the Twins, giving up 3 or less runs in his last three starts.  The two teams are similar on paper; first and second in runs-allowed this season, and both with middling offenses.  Houston, now 7-3, definitely has the hotter hand lately.  The Twins are sub-.500 on the road, have struggled in and against Houston, and are having difficulty producing runs lately, scoring three or less in six of nine games.  Both teams have very good relief pitching, and both starting pitchers have seen the total go under consistently in recent games.  With Houston a heavy favorite, the total is the best wager today.  Take the Twins and Astros to go under.

Teheran, who we have seen very little of in the past couple of years, looked sharp in his return allowing a single run over five innings in his first start of the season.  Manoah has not looked himself at all to date, and doesn't seem to be improving.  He has an ugly 6.45 ERA in May, averaging barely over four innings a start, with equal K's and BB's this month.  He has  been particularly bad at home.  The Blue Jays still haven't gelled as a team and are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. Both offense and relief pitching have been uneven. The Brewers, also 4-6, are as usual light-hitting, but aren't getting the pitching they usually have, including an average bullpen lately.  The Jays are a medium favorite, but I am just not confident that Manoah's troubles are over yet.  Look for a second strong outing from a voice from the past, and take the Brewers to at least keep this one close. Take Milwaukee +1 1/2.  9 stars!

I was humbled Monday night with a surprise win by the Guardians over the Orioles.  The Orioles are too good for this to happen two nights in a row and they will be burning for revenge.  Expected starter for the Guardians, Quantrill, will be no match for Gibson.  Quantrill has only won 1 of his last 6.  In his last start he lasted 4 innings and gave up 6 runs against the woeful White Sox.  At night he is 0-2 with a 5.13 ERA.  On the other hand Gibson has been hot in his last 2, winning both and only giving up 1 earned run between the two games.  And at night he is 5-2 this season with a 2.84 ERA.

In the Guardians win Monday night they used two of their bullpen aces while the Orioles rested their top relievers from their formidable bullpen as they seemed to throw in the towel. 

At the plate the Guardians have been struggling this season with the 28th avg and the 30th OPS in the majors.  The Orioles are a respectable 15th and 12th respectively.

Even though I am not picking the over/under for this game it is interesting to note that when the total is set at 8-8.5 the Orioles are 21-7 while the Guardians are 11-12 this season.  It all adds up to a solid pick for the Orioles on the Money Line.

The Rangers shutout the Tigers on Monday but face a tough young right hander off a very fine start in Faedo.  He struck out ten with 0 BBs in that outing, but has given up more than his share of the long ball in his first four starts.  The Rangers are very solid power hitters, so he will have his hands full.  For the Rangers lefty Martin Perez starts.  He appears to have found his form after two weeks in the wilderness.  He has been sharp in his last two starts, allowing just 4 runs in 14 innings pitched.  The Rangers are in the hitting and pitching groove, with a fine run differential, scoring 6.4 runs a game while allowing less than three  over the last two weeks.  They've been getting great innings from their starters, and the pen, with rest, has been much better.  The Tigers struggle vs lefties, and Perez is a good one when he is on.  Detroit's bullpen, which has had some fine weeks, has regressed slightly with a 4.65 ERA L10 games.

Tuesday's starting pitchers are a toss-up, but I'll take the Rangers offense to seal the day, and the improved pen to hold on for the victory.   Rangers to win, possibly late.

No doubt that the Under will be a “popular” play tonight in Game 7 between the Heat and Celtics. That’s atypical as the public usually prefers to bet the Over. But history can be difficult to ignore, especially when Unders are on a 37-24 (61%) run in Game 7’s including 11-1 L12 when excluding the 2020 “bubble.” 

But I will go against the grain and take the Over here. We’ve seen a massive adjustment in the number from Game 5 when the O/U line closed at 214.5. 

Each of the last two games in the series saw a combined 207 total points scored. That would now be enough to cash an Over ticket. None of the games in this series have seen fewer than 207 total points scored. 

Neither team shot all that well in Game 6 and we still got to 207. The Celtics shot just 20% from three-point range (7 of 35). The Heat were an abysmal 19 of 63 (31%) from inside the arc. I believe we’ll see better shooting in both regards here in Game 7. 

Even with the last three games in this series all going Under, Boston is 11-5 to the Over in its last 16 games and Miami is 16-6 to the Over in its last 22 games (including 10-2 on the road). 10* 

It has not been common for the Knights, a superb road team, to give up four goals in a non-overtime away game.  The Stars carried it to the Golden Knights, looking faster and sharper, while hemming Vegas in with an blanketing forecheck.  While Hill was impressive at times, he definitely appeared more vulnerable in Game Five, with his save % dropping to below .900 for the first time in seven games.  In the other net, Oettinger appears to have bounced back from his three game slide and has looked more like his dominant self in the last two games.  Robertson has stepped up his game with more chances and better success, scoring three times in the last two games.  Eichel has bee held scoreless in three straight games now. 

With Benn back, Oettinger playing better and the Stars finally with some momentum,  I like Dallas' chances to tie the series up tonight.  Take the Stars, a very good home team to win.

The Rangers have the top offense in the league at the moment and are getting fine starting pitching lately.  So, how do you get around the Rangers' one weak area, their sketchy bullpen?  Just start Eovaldi, who in addition to a 6-2 record and a 2.40 ERA, has averaged over eight innings pitched in his last five starts.  The Tigers aren't even that much of an offensive threat, presently 27th in Runs scored/9.  They'll start lefty Matt Boyd, who as struggled more often than not, with short appearances and a 6.11 ERA in May.  The Tigers pen hasn't been much better than the Rangers lately, and will likely be more heavily used on Monday.  Watch out Matt Boyd.  The Rangers have hit a very hot .338 vs left-handers in their last ten games.  Texas to win.

The Orioles lost a rare home series vs the Rangers, so will be all in today to bounce back against the 4-6 Guardians.  The Orioles are a fine hitting team, facing the worst in the league at runs scored/9.  True to form, the Guardians are batting just .212 against right handers over their last 10 games.  Cleveland's young left-hander Logan Allen (3.31 ERA) has impressed this year, but he has also been a bit lucky.  His hit totals are much higher than they should be, and he has seen his WHIP climb from 1.09 in April to 1.62 in May.  Orioles righty Wells struggled against the Yankees last time out.  He is very successful at limiting hits, but has been a victim of the long ball.  The Guardians trail all teams by a wide margin in home runs this season.  Wells has been much better at home this year. 

There is nothing wrong with the Guardians' pitching but you have to score runs to win games.  Given the hits totals that Allen has given up lately, I expect the O's to take advantage and  put up some runs.  Take Baltimore, 16-10 at home, to win Game one of the series.

The Reds are a very poor road team but they've still managed to take the first two games of the series from the hapless Cubs.  They have feasted on Cubs pitching and also put up a ten spot vs the Cardinals, putting them near the top in offense over the last week.  Reds' starter Ashcraft started the season on fire, but has gone very very cold lately, with an ERA of 10.03 in May.  Cubs' left-handed veteran Smyly has been pretty sharp this year, winning three game in May, with a 2.63 ERA for the month.  The problems will come once Smyly leaves, as everyone seems to be teeing off on the Cubs' relievers.  The Reds have had great success vs left-handed pitching lately.

No one enjoys being swept and the Cubs aren't hitting badly at the moment.  They'll get there chances if Ashcraft continues to struggle.  It is quite likely that the Reds will run up the score in the later innings.  Sunday's total is very average.  I'm wagering on the over in this one.

The Giants have taken three straight from the Brewers in convincing style, outscoring them 23-2.  They'll start their ace right-hander Cobb, who is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in May.  The Giants are getting solid pitching and hitting lately but it is the bullpen that has absolutely shone, with a miniscule ERA over the last ten games.  The much-injured Brewers are giving up nearly double the runs they've scored over the last seven games, hitting below .200 for that time period.  Sunday's starter Rea (4.71 ERA) is a stand-in, but has been a nice surprise for the Brewers.  His last start was a 6 inning shutout over the Astros.  I don't expect he can maintain that level over the long term, and the Brewers' very depleted pen has struggled more than usual lately. The Giants have now won eight of ten games. I'm wagering that they will complete the sweep on Sunday. Giants to win.

The Celtics have now done what only 14 teams previous to them have accomplished. That is to force a Game 6 after falling 0-3 in a playoff series. Now they seek to do what only three other teams have done after falling behind 0-3 - force a Game 7. (No team has ever come back to win the series after being down 0-3). 

Boston’s confidence has to be booming after the 110-97 win in Game 5. Basically, they led for double digits the entire game. Meanwhile, Miami’s confidence has to be waning. This was a Heat team that was really overachieving; they finished the regular season with a negative point differential and negative net efficiency. 

The Heat are 5-11 ATS this season following a double digit loss. Gabe Vincent (ankle) remains questionable for tonight and we know Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are already out. This team is running out of bodies and is really reliant on Jimmy Butler carrying the scoring load.

Boston, on the other hand, had four 20+ point scorers in Game 5. They’ve shot 51% as a team the last two games including 40% from three. It’ll be difficult to maintain those percentages, but there is no denying which of these two teams has the deeper roster. 

The thing about Miami is they actually shot well in Game 5 and still ended up with only 97 points. All the momentum in this series has shifted and I’m laying the short number with the better team. 10* 

The Stars and Oettinger bounced back with an overtime win in Game four.  I really thought that the young Stars goalie was down for the count, but he survived nearly 40 shots with by far his best game of the series.  Hill was again steady in net for Vegas as he has been all series long.  Dallas will be again in must win mode but at least they have now had a taste of success, however the Knights have been very good at making the necessary adjustments after a loss.  With 2/3s of the Stars second line out and with the final change tonight, Vegas can key on the Stars top line which accounted for all of the Dallas scoring in Game four.  This series was always expected to be a low scoring one, and in spite of some subpar goal tending by Oettinger, the last three games have gone under.  Look for another tight checking, low scoring affair tonight, and take the total to go under.

These two teams rang up a ton of runs on Friday.  It is unlikely that the Royals at least will have the same success vs Josiah Gray on Saturday.  He has bee very steady since his second start with a fine ERA and solid numbers of innings pitched.  The only concern with the right-hander is his walks, with a very hefty 15 in May alone.  He will face Singer who has been a major disappointment for the Royals this year.  Singer has been hit hard in recent games with just one quality start in May.  Opposing batters are teeing off at an alarming +.300 rate this season.  He also is prone to walks.

The 1-6 Royals continued their struggles at home on Friday.  The Nats are now 4-2, and leading the league in batting avg. over the last two weeks.  The Royals are hitting just .176 against right handers over the last two weeks, and firmly in the cellar for overall offense this season.  Neither bullpen is particularly effective.  I'll take the better-hitting Nationals, with a more consistent starter to win again on the road on Saturday.

The hard hitting Rangers embarrassed the Orioles at home on Friday, but the the O's are a tough out at home.  Righty Kremer starts for Baltimore, and he has really turned things around in  May, finishing 3-0 with an ERA of under 2.00 against some very tough opponents.  He has had good success vs the Rangers in the past.  The same cannot be said for Rangers' starter Heaney.  The Orioles roughed him up for 7 runs over 2+ innings early in the season.  Since then, Heaney has pitched well, including a 6 inning shutout in his last start.

Rangers batters are on a tear lately, but the Orioles are no slouches on offense and hit left handers well.  One deciding  advantage for the O's is their bullpen, 2nd in the league for the season and well set up for today's game.  The Rangers haven't had solid relief pitching. lately or for the season.  I'll take the Orioles to revenge yesterday's loss, and while it may take until the later innings, to win game two of their home series

Two young future star right handers face off when Keller meets Kirby on Friday.  Keller has been exceptional lately.  His K to BB  ratio is an amazing 18-1, with a very low WHIP to go with it.  Mariners' Kirby has impressed as well, pitching late into games with a low ERA in May.  Neither the Pirates nor the Mariners are hitting especially well in general, nor are they getting much recent  success vs right handed pitching.  The M's have a very good bullpen; the Pirates should get plenty of innings out of Keller. Take this game to go under the total.

We’ve got a high total tonight in this WNBA matchup between Dallas and Seattle. Well, maybe it’s not that high considering the O/U line for these teams' respective season openers closed at 161.5 and 165.5. 

But the key is Seattle gave up 105 in a horrific 41-point loss to Las Vegas. They let the Aces shoot 55% for the game.

I think the value is squarely on the Under for tonight’s game. Though it was “just one game,” the Storm certainly will be cognizant of being better at the defensive end. 

Las Vegas hit 11 of 18 three-point attempts in that game, an absurd percentage (61.1%). No way Dallas is doing that tonight. 

In fact, these two teams combined to go just 15 of 41 from three in their first games. Take the Under. 10* 

As poor as Corbin has been over the last couple of years, it is easy to overlook his recent results.  He has bee consistent, delivering three six-inning starts allowing just two runs in each, while cutting down on the long ball and BBs.  Meanwhile Lyles, with an 8.86 ERA in May, hasn't had a winning start this season, and consistently struggles to get out of the first inning.  Add in the Royals' dreadful home record and their inability to hit and you have to question the Nationals as an underdog today. The 3-2 Nationals are leading the league in batting average over the last two weeks, while the 1-6 Royals are hitting just .195 collectively in their last fifteen days.  I'm jumping on Corbin and the Nationals to continue with their recent success and win on the road.

All of a sudden, we’ve got a series here in the Eastern Conference Finals as Boston staved off elimination on Tuesday, winning Game 4 116-99 as 1.5-point underdogs.

I cashed the Under in that game; albeit barely as we needed the Heat to NOT take a shot on the final possession (which thankfully they didn’t). Of course, there was no guaranteeing a Miami shot would have gone in right before the horn as they shot just 43% overall in Game 4 and 25% from three. 

Even with the series returning to Boston, I don’t see the Celtics matching their Game 4 shooting (51% overall, 40% from three). 

Other than Jimmy Butler, who had 29 points and 9 rebounds Tuesday, the Heat don’t have a ton of reliable scoring options. Gabe Vincent rolled his ankle pretty badly in the last game and Kyle Lowry may be banged up as well. 

Miami is giving up just 108.4 points/game in these playoffs while Boston is allowing just 109.9. I don’t see both teams having good offensive nights here. 10* 

The Stars won't be out tonight down in Dallas.  Missing Benn and with Oettinger essentially a broken man, this is definitely the Golden Knights' game and series for the taking.  Vegas was, as usual, poised and tough on defense in a road game last time out, and I expect nothing different today.  They really have been an elite away team this season.  Add the continued success of Adin Hill, now with a shutout to add to some very stellar play in the post season.  Eichel and the returning Stone are top ten in playoff scoring but the Knights are getting goals from a variety of players.  Without Oettinger holding up in net, Dallas's blueline has been exposed. Take Vegas to finish off a rattled Stars side tonight.

The Cubs have won two straight vs the Mets.  They are an above .500 home team and have veteran right hander Hendricks back after a lengthy absence.  Let's hope he can inspire them to greater days, including a three game sweep.  Hendricks has looked very sharp in his rehab outings.  Mets' starter Carrasco is just one start back from rehab himself, and it wasn't a beauty.  The veteran has struggled as his season's voluminous ERA reveals.  Pitching has been an issue for the Mets this year, with a multitude still on the IL.  They aren't inspiring with the bats lately either.  Meanwhile the Cubbies have stepped it up on offense lately and are getting solid relief pitching L5 games.  Take the Cubs to complete the home sweep of the Mets. 9*!

The top and second top forechecking teams in the NHL (by advanced metrics) are masterful at getting in on the puck.  But it turns out they are also great at limiting in zone high danger chances.  Their skill at forechecking includes an ability to clog up the neutral zone and stifle rush chances.  Both teams still manage to keep things exciting with checkers and puck carriers selling out and sacrificing themselves all over the ice. 

When you combine this with unbelievable goaltending it is a sure recipe for low scoring affairs.  The losing goaltender in this series, Andersen has save percentages of .941 and .950.  That is phenomenal.  But Bobrovsky has been otherworldly with 1.0, .974 and.969 save percentages.  It’s no surprise that the Canes under record is 4-0 in their last 4 and the Panthers is 8-0 in their last 8.  Both teams have averaged totals of 5.4 (Carolina) and 5.2(Florida) GF +GA in their last 10 games.

When you have no high scoring stars on either side it’s no wonder that the under is a must call on this one.  Take the under and enjoy this hard fought hockey to the max.

Both the Cubs’ Stroman and the Mets’ Senga had two strong outings and one weak outing in May.  They are both averaging a little over 5 innings/start and their May ERAs are comparable.  Stroman’s overall stats are better (although his win record isn’t) as he had a scorching start to the season and he has many more years experience than Senga so the edge has to go to Stroman.  Their bullpens have almost identical ERAs and WHIPs for May although the Mets bullpen is maybe a little more rested. 

But this is a night game and the Cubs’ batters are 1st and 3rd in the majors for average and OPS at night.  The Mets are way down in the twenties.  And the clincher, the Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 against the Cubs (20-41 in their last 61). 

The Cubs’ bats have been hot for the last 15 days as they are 4th in the majors in OPS while the Mets are 15th.

So whether Senga or Stroman have one of their strong outings or a weaker one, both bullpens are capable of picking up the slack but the Cubs’ bats are almost certain to carry the day.  The Cubs are the pick.

I think we’re due for an Under in this series as Miami can’t possibly match their shooting from the last game as they went 19 of 35 from three (54.5%) and shot 56.8% overall from the field.

All three of these ECF games have now gone Over the total, two of them by wide margins, but it looks like Game 4 will have the highest closing O/U line of the series.

I don’t think that’s warranted. Boston’s season is on the line, so I don’t expect an up-tempo game. The Celtics are also really struggling from three, especially the last two games where they’re down around 27%. 

For the entire playoffs, the Heat are allowing just 107.9 points/game. They were also one of the top defensive teams in the regular season. 

I’m on the Under in Game 4. 10* 

The Stars have not been getting the goal-tending required for  playoff success in Round three.  In spite of Oettinger's track record, and the Knights being limited to just 24 shots in Game two, Dallas came up in the wrong side of overtime again.  Golden Knights' net minder Adin Hill has looked very sharp in his last four starts.  This is obviously  a must-win situation for the Stars.  Vegas has been a tighter close checking team when playing on the road all season.  I think Dallas will respond with even more defensive pressure, while an obviously weary Oettinger will look to rebound from some poor outings.  Game three will be another close one, with an equally low total.  Take the Under on Tuesday

The Giants are on a roll, winning 6 of 7, while the 4-6 Twins have taken a step back lately.  Neither team would be considered a hitting powerhouse, but both are running out premium starters on Tuesday.  SF right-hander Cobb has two shutouts in his last three starts.  He gave up a pair of runs in three plus innings last time out, but otherwise has delivered innings and quality in his starts with a 1.02 ERA in May.  The Twins' Gray has a very fine 1.64 ERA for the season, but has regressed slightly in May, allowing 6 runs over 14 innings with an ERA of 3.44 this month.

The Giants have been getting top relief pitching lately, better than usual, and better than the Twins.  I like the way Cobb is pitching lately and like also the direction the Giants are going in.  Gray has been very good, but has taken a small step back in May. I 'll take the underdog Giants to steal this one on the road.

Houston is 5-0 in their last 5 and 9-1 in their last 10.  They are on fire.  Milwaukee is at the other end of the spectrum, 1-4 in their last 5 and trending down in every way.  Both teams will start recent callups.  The Brewers’ Rea is 0-3 in this latest stint and has an ERA of 6.97 in his last 3 with a WHIP of 1.65.  He has trended down after a reasonable start to his callup.  France has only been up for 3 starts but has been trending up after a shaky start with only 1 earned run in his last two starts.

If either of these two struggle the Astros have the bullpen to deal with it, while the Brewers don’t.  In the Astros' last 10 their relievers have an ERA of 1.64 and a WHIP of 1.06.  The Brewers ERA is 4.81 and their WHIP is 1.22 over the same stretch.

In terms of offense, the Astros have the 4th best OPS and 3rd best avg. in the majors over the last 15 days.  The Brewers are struggling with the 22nd and 27th best respectively.  The Astros won big yesterday as slight favorites and will be the victors again today with even better odds.

Well, it appears as if we all might as well start preparing to handicap a Denver-Miami NBA Finals as both teams hold 3-0 series leads in the respective Conference Finals and no team in league history has ever blown such an advantage. 

As for whether or not the Nuggets make it a 4-0 sweep over the Lakers tonight, I do not know. I do know that I don’t want to lay points with the home team, who is clearly the inferior squad in this matchup.

But I’m also not convinced that the Nuggets will be able to match their shooting from Sunday where they made 50% of their total FG attempts including 41% from three. Jamal Murray was absolutely unconscious in Game 3, making 11 of his first 13 shots on the way to a third straight 30+ point game in the series. 

On the road, Denver typically is not as good as they are at home. Game 3 marked just the second time this postseason that the Lakers allowed more than 101 points at home. 

The problem for LA is that I just don’t see where an increase in scoring comes from for them. They are already getting as much as you can ask for out of Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. Anthony Davis had 28 points and 18 rebounds in Game 3, but rarely produces back to back stellar efforts. LeBron James continues to be miserable from three. Take the Under. 10* 

Bobrovsky's three latest appearances, all going into overtime, could become legendary; facing 155 shots, he has turned in a .968 Save %.  I doubted him after that marathon Game one, but I won't this time.  Now throw in Tkachuk, a difference maker in all three series, whose impact on the Panthers' offense has been equally remarkable in the playoffs.  Add Barkov for star power, and the confidence the Panthers are playing with having knocked off two favored opponents, and you have a very tough row to hoe for Hurricanes.  Carolina's lack of offense was a given in this series, but the Canes have met an equally tough fore-checking opponent in the Panthers.  I like the Panthers, with the final change on home ice, to advance to 3-0 today.

Two of the League's lesser light meet up on Monday.  The Tigers are 4 games above .500 in May but they struggle on the road.  The Royals have a horrible home record and are very poor vs right-handers (12-26) this season.  They face a  very tough righty in Lorenzen who has been very sharp lately, with just two runs allowed over twenty innings pitched in his last three starts.  He'll face another right-hander in  an underachieving Brady Singer.  He has been better in his last two starts but has also been hit extremely hard at times this season, hence the bloated 7.09 ERA.  Neither team is hitting well, but the Tigers are at least over .200 vs right lately.  KC is hitting  a startling .181 in the same time frame. Both bullpens have been at least average lately, although the Royals especially haven't been getting many innings  out or their starters. I favor the Tigers on Monday.  Lorenzen has been very dependable; Singer has the talent but has been wildly inconsistent this season.    Take the Tigers, a slight underdog, to win on the road.

The 7-3 Rangers travel to Pittsburgh to face the 3-6 Pirates.  Dunning (4-0, 0.89 WHIP) starts for Texas.   Dunning has taken a huge step this year.  He is consistent and delivers length in his starts.  His ERA in May is an impressive 1.59.  He will face a recent call-up, Pirates righty Ortiz.  With two rough short starts so far, he has more walks than K's to date.  The Rangers are top four in OPS over the last two weeks while the Pirates are down in the depths at 28th.  In spite of the Rangers' poor bullpen, I am taking Texas on Monday.  With superior offense and a much stronger starter, they will steal this one on the road.

The Miami Heat continue to shock and amaze as they have a commanding 2-0 series lead after winning both games in Boston. I wouldn’t necessarily rule the Celtics out just yet, but I also don’t want to bet them as road favorites in Game 3 Sunday. 

So let’s look at the total. The first two games went Over, the first one easily (239 points) and the second barely (216). I think we’re in store for the lowest scoring game of the series as the scene shifts to South Beach. 

Something that should frighten Celtics’ fans is that their team shot well in the first two games (basically 50%) and still went 0-2. I don’t see them shooting as well on the road. The C’s were actually 27 of 44 on 2PA in Game 2 (61%). No way they are repeating that. 

The last four times Boston has visited Miami, the Under has cashed every time.

For Miami, it remains to been seen whether or not Jimmy Butler can keep this ridiculous run going. The Heat don’t have a ton of reliable scoring options besides Butler. The Celtics did hold the 76ers under 90 points three different times in the last round. 10* 

The Red Sox have won four straight games, two of them vs the Padres. Meanwhile, the Padres are an unbelievable 1-9.  About the only things the Padres have going are their bullpen (1.35 ERA L10) and Wacha' starts. The right-hander looks just as good as he did last year, allowing just 1 run over 19 innings, with an ERA of 0.47 in May.  He will face Corey Kluber, who hasn't had many quality starts this season.  The last three have been pretty ho-hum.  His ERA is close to 6.00 this month.  It is hard to imagine but the Padres are dead last in hitting over the last two weeks, however Boston's bats aren't quite as hot as they have been, they are less effective vs right-handers, and their bull pen continues to let them down.  Look for the Padres to  salvage something from this series.  They won on Wacha's last start.  I believe they will win again today.

There are no Bobrovskys in this series.  Oettinger was expected to excel but for what ever reason (fatigue?) he has been little better than average in the playoffs.  Adin Hill was the better goalie in game one.  We have seen a surprising number of high totals from these two teams in the playoffs; 7-1 in the Stars' case, and three straight from Vegas.  The odds-makers keep setting the number at 5.5 but without superlative goal-tending, that number seems low.  It has been a rare game in the playoffs that the Knights haven't scored 4 or more goals.  The Stars have also averaged roughly four goals a game over their last 1o games.  I am jumping on that low number in Game two.  Take Vegas and the Stars to go over the total.

The Lakers (barely) covered the spread in both Games 1 and 2, but my view is that even at home in a desperate situation, they should not be laying this many points to the top-seeded Nuggets.

Yes, LA did have the lead for most of Game 2 before succumbing late (but, again, still covering). However, they were largely dominated for most of Game 1 and did not deserve to get the cash in that game. 

I know Denver isn’t nearly the same team on the road as they are at home, but this is too many points considering their only three losses this postseason have been by a total of 18 points. 

LeBron James has been miserable from three in the playoffs (23.3%) including 0 for 10 in this series alone. The Lakers are not a good three-point shooting team, making it difficult to build/maintain the kind of lead they need to cover this number.

Also, Reaves and Hachimura are due for some regression. Unless Anthony Davis steps up in a major way, I don’t see how the Lakers win this game, let alone cover. 10* 

There has to be a regression to the mean in Bobrovsky’s goaltending.  His .943 save% in his last 6 games is off the charts and way above his seasonal and career numbers.  After an almost 7 period game, this is the time for it to come back down to earth.  The Canes are 3rd in average shots per game while the Panthers are 22nd in average shots against.  Bobrovsky is due for a melt down.  The Panthers’ PK is at 61%.  The Canes PP hasn’t been great but this will be Teravinen’s second game back so he should help their PP and offense in general more than last game.  
Florida has been involved in a lot of under totals lately but two stats point to the Canes being able to make adjustments to juice up their attack.  They are 7-1 over/under on one day’s rest and have a 21-7 win loss record when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in the previous game.  It all points to an over total for game 2. Tired teams usually score more rather than less goals.  Take Game two to go over the total.

The 8-2 Cardinals' offense was kept in check on Friday, but they have been tough to contain lately with 9, 16, and 18 run efforts in their last 6 games.  They will face righty Syndergaard on Saturday.  I am not a fan of Thor these days although his last couple of starts have been OK.  The Cardinals got a good look at him at the end of April and have had success against him in the past.  Don't count on many innings from him.  Meanwhile Cards' left hander Mikolas seems to have re-found his form after a rough start.  Three of his last four appearances have been one run efforts.  St. Louis is a hitting machine at the moment, leading the league in OPS and HRs/ L15.  They have been especially tough on right handers.  The Cards have a better bullpen at the moment as the Dodgers' has been uncharacteristically poor other than on Friday night.

Take a resurgent Cardinals team to bounce back at home.

The Twins have been putting a charge in the ball lately, nearly doubling the Angels in runs scored.  While the Angels are usually the better hitting team, they may not get many chances against the Twins' ace Joe Ryan.  He has done it all this year, but what has he done recently?  How does a 1.00 ERA, 2 runs over 16 innings, and 21 strikeouts to 3 base on balls in May sound.  He'll face Reid Detmers, the Angels very young lefty.  Detmers has had some moments this year, but they haven't been lately; 12 runs over 13+ innings in his last three games.  The Twins haven't been as good on the road this year, but the presence of Ryan should tip the balance.  The Angels big bats are just as susceptible to a dominant starter.  Minnesota will have their chances to keep swinging those hot bats with Detmers and his 6+ ERA in May on the mound.  Take the Twins to win on the road. 9 *!

Both the Stars and the Knights mostly defended well against two offensive juggernauts in round 2.  Probable starting goaltenders Oettinger (2.44 GA avg. .916 save %) and Hill (.245 GA avg. .917 save %) have comparable records.  Oettinger has a 7-2-1 record in his last 10 while Hill is 7-3.  So there isn’t much to choose between them beyond Oettinger’s success in last year’s playoffs against Calgary.
The Stars are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with the Knights.  The Stars have a better record on the road than the Knights have at home.  When you list all the matchup factors Dallas has the edge in offense, defense, PP, PK, faceoffs and discipline.  The only edge for Vegas is in goal during these playoffs but Oettinger last year in the playoffs and all season was far superior to Hill so it is difficult to imagine Hill continuing to carry the day.  Hill is seen as large and slow and clearly Coach DeBoer and the Dallas veteran attackers will figure out how to take advantage of this.  Pick Dallas as the dog and carry the day.
 

Might as well start by pointing out that teams who lose Game 1 at home are 21-1 straight up and 20-2 ATS in Game 2 going back to 2019. Boston fits that profile tonight, so I’ll be laying the points. 

The Celtics were in this exact same situation in the last round. They dropped Game 1 to Philadelphia, 119-115 as a 10.5-point favorite. They immediately bounced back, winning Game 2 121-87, laying a similar number. 

The trend mentioned above is a perfect 7-0 SU this season, five of those wins coming by 14 points or greater. 

I can’t see Miami shooting 51% from three again nor do I see them shooting 54% overall from the field. 

The Heat have “stolen” Game 1 on the road in all three series this postseason. But they are 0-2 thus far in Game 2’s, losing at Milwaukee by 16 and New York by 6.  The Celtics are 20-10 SU off a loss and should win big tonight. 10* 

The Jays play for Kikuchi.  he is 5-0 this season.  Coming off a tough and controversial series against the Yankees, the Jays will be determined to add to their 7-1 record in Kikuchi’s last 8 starts.  The Jays are also 5-2 in their last 7 games against the Orioles. 

At the plate the Jays are 9th in the majors over the last 15 days while the Orioles are 22nd.  And on top of that the Orioles just don’t give Gibson any run support.  In his last two starts the Orioles have been shutout.  Even though the Orioles have a superior bullpen, it can’t score any runs.  Gibson’s streak of 3 straight losses should continue.  I’m riding the Kikuchi wave on this one.

For most of the 48 minutes in Game 1, Denver clearly looked like the better team. But the Nuggets did not cover the closing number, either pushing or failing to cover depending on your shop. I fully anticipate they will cover the spread here in Game 2.

Both teams shot nearly 55% from the floor in Game 1 and roughly 46% from three. Playing on the road, it is the Lakers that are more likely to experience offensive regression in Game 2. This is a team that shoots the three at only 34.5% for the year. Denver is shooting 51% for the year here at home.

The Nuggets are also typically much better at the defensive end at home. In Game 1, they gave up 72 points in the second half. This is a team that came into the WCF ranked #2 in the league, allowing just over 108 points/game on its home court. 

Not only do I not see Anthony Davis scoring another 40 for LA, Austin Reaves (23 points) and Rui Hachimura (17) won’t match their Game 1 scoring either.

The Lakers are 2-9 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 130 or more points. Denver is 41-7 SU at home, winning by an average of 10.3 points per game. 

This is a very tough call. Limited due to injury, the Canes offense was questioned coming into the playoffs and the Panthers were largely written off with a 21st rated defense.  True to form, the Hurricanes stymied the opposition, allowing the least goals of any remaining team.  They were equally tough on the PK, and in spite of a "scoring by committee" approach, have scored as many goals as the Panthers while playing one less game.  Both teams got stellar goal-tending in the last series.  Bobrovsky re-found his form and was phenomenal in the Leaf series. Andersen, even allowing for one very bad game, still finished the last series with a .931 save %. The Panthers do have an edge on the power play but the Canes  have really limited PP opportunities with the least number of penalty minutes.  Carolina was one of the very best home teams this year while the Panthers were much less effective on the road.  Both teams are well-rested. Carolina of all teams should be able to limit the "Tkachuk effect".  Home ice and better defense tips the scales for me in what could be a very close Game one.  Take the Hurricanes, the favorite today, to win.

The struggling White Sox have won two straight games vs the Guardians, and have their ace Dylan Cease on the mound on Thursday.  Cease had a couple of very off games, but he looked great in his last start.  When he is on, there is no one better.  The Guardians' lefty Logan Allen has been a good find.  He has been solid so far, but has given up more than his share of hits in May, and while it hasn't come back to burn him yet, he is living on borrowed time if he keeps it up.  The Guardians could be down two significant pieces on offense.  The can ill afford to lose anyone considering the way they are hitting.  The White Sox have been hitting better recently especially when facing left-handers.  The bullpen has been a real sore point this year, but it has been much improved in their last ten games.
The Sox are better at home, and can expect another fine start from Cease.  I'm wagering on a rare White Sox sweep tomorrow. 

I had the Over in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last night and there was certainly no shortage of scoring there. But for tonight’s Game 1 of the East Conference Finals (between Miami and Boston), I’m anticipating a much different kind of game. 

Now it was mostly Overs for both of these teams in the first round of the playoffs. But then the scoring really started to slow down in the respective second round matchups. The Heat-Knicks series was really played at a “snail’s pace” and never saw more than 216 total points scored in any game. Four of the six games finished at 210 or less with the close-out game being the “low-water mark” at 188.

The Celtics really put the clamps down on the Sixers over the final two games of that series, holding them to 86 and 88 points. In three of Boston’s four second round wins, they allowed less than 90 points! 

I can’t see the Celtics shooting as well as they did when I cashed them in Game 7 vs. Philadelphia. Jayson Tatum scored a record 51 points and, as a team, the Celtics shot 45% from three. 

The Under is 27-13 the last three seasons when Boston is playing on exactly two days’ rest. Their last five games have averaged only 209.2 points. The last five Heat games have averaged just 204.0 points. Take the Under. 10* 

After a rough outing, the Orioles bounced back on Tuesday, holding a solid Rangers offense to 3 runs.  Baltimore is a dominant home team (14-6 this season) facing a .500 Rangers road team.  Bradish starts for the O's.  He has had mixed results to date, but has some up side and his last start was a 6 inning 1 run gem.  He will face Griffin Canning, who's starts are going in the wrong direction.  With an ERA of over 10.00 in May, he has allowed more than a run an inning.  He lasted just 3+ innings in his latest appearance.  There is no doubting the Rangers' offense, but the Orioles are right there with them, one position behind in runs/9. Baltimore has been getting especially fine relief lately, while the Rangers pen numbers are an inflated 6.29 L10 games.
Bradish was brilliant down the stretch last year, and looks to be re-finding that form.  I am wagering on the Orioles today.  They are a fine young hitting team with great success in limiting opposition totals on most days.  Baltimore wins at home. 

The 2-8 Pirates fell out of the winning tree a couple of weeks ago and are barely hanging on to a lower branch at the moment.  They are hitting well south of .200 L10 and are just 1-4 in Detroit. Rich Hill has pitched pretty well for an elder statesman.  His last two appearances haven't been his best however, giving up 7 runs in 9 innings pitched.  Hill won't overpower anyone, and length may be an issue.

The Tigers shut the Pirates out on a fine pitching performance on Tues.  They could have another on Wednesday with Mr. Consistent on the mound.  In his last 5 starts, lefty Edwin Rodriguez has thrown 34 innings, allowing just 2 ER.  No one can match him in innings pitched or ERA this season.  The 6-4 Tigers are no hitting powerhouse, but they are better than the Pirates at the moment, and are getting great relief from the pen lately.  Not that Rodriguez needs much help. The Pirates are big on shooting themselves in the foot in recent games.  Take the Tigers to win at home on Wednesday.