The Canucks were down 0-4 and rallied to win 7-6 in OT in their last game.  They are a frustrating team but can put the puck in the net both on five on five and on the PP. It is keeping the puck out of the net that is their problem with a 30th ranked defense and now an injury to their #1 goaltender Demko.  Back-up net-minder Martin did not inspire confidence on Sunday; he was pulled after allowing 4 goals on 8 shots.

They are on the road against a 2-8 Sharks team, who are also a dismal 2-8 at home this year.  The Sharks are weak on offense, scoring under 3 goals a game but will get their opportunities against the Canucks' defense.  The Sharks have given up 11 goals in their last two games, and will likely have Kakhonen and his uninspiring .882 save % in net.  The Canucks had his number in their 4-3 victory in November.  
Look for the Sharks and Canucks, two of the poorest defending teams in the league, to go over the total on Wednesday.

Brooklyn has gone Under in five straight games, but in each instance the number was higher than it is here. I like this game vs. Charlotte to go Over the total.

Since Steve Nash was fired, the Nets’ defense has improved tremendously as they are fourth in efficiency. But one thing they still don’t do well is rebound the basketball. They are dead last in the league in defensive rebounding rate at 68.8%.

Charlotte is seventh in offensive rebounding rate, so I see them getting plenty of second-chance opportunities in this matchup. 

You also have to think Brooklyn is going to shoot the ball a lot better here than it did vs. an elite Boston team on Sunday. The Celtics held the Nets to a field goal percentage of 40.5. They had previously topped 50% in eight of nine games. 

The Hornets have scored 117 in two of their last three games. But they too had issues giving up offensive rebounds in a loss to the Clippers on Monday. LA grabbed 13 offensive boards, leading to 25 second-chance points. They finished with 119 points overall, winning the game in the final minute. 10*

Michigan State has lost two in a row, both as favorites, and failed to cover three straight. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 games. They’ve played a ton of close games so far with four decided by four points or less and that does not even include a double overtime win against Kentucky.

Speaking of double overtime games, Penn State just lost one of those, 101-94 at Clemson last week as part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge. They’ve been off ever since, so that’s a bit of an edge in the Nittany Lions favor as MSU has played two times since that Penn State-Clemson loss took place.

I don’t really want to fade Sparty off back to back losses though, so let’s look at the total. The number has been bet up, which makes sense when you consider the final score of that Penn State-Clemson game and the fact MSU has gone Over in six of its last seven. But Penn State had gone Under in five straight prior to losing to Clemson.

Michigan State has put up just 115 points in the last two games combined and is still without Malik Hall. Their biggest concern here is defending the three-point line as PSU is shooting 40.4% from deep, including 46.2% at home. The thing is, I can’t see those numbers continuing, regardless of how well the Spartans defend in this game.

Both teams are playing slow this year, ranking 284 and 299 in pace respectively. I see value on the Under. 8*

San Jose State just got absolutely waxed by Arkansas over the weekend, losing by 41. After taking a shellacking like that from a Top 10 team, I worry about the Spartans’ psyche heading into this game against Cal State Bakersfield where the oddsmakers are asking them to win by a decent margin. 

Now things didn’t go so well for CS Bakersfield in their last game either. They lost to Dartmouth by 25. That was just the second double digit loss for the Roadrunners though and the first came at Utah. 

CS Bakersfield was just 3 of 12 from three in that last game. Expect them to improve on that number here as SJSU is allowing teams to make 37.3% from behind the arc.

The Spartans are also a bad free throw shooting team (64.3%), which is yet another reason to want to fade them as a favorite. 

So in a battle of two teams off blowout losses, I’ll grab the points. It’s a low total, so with points likely at a premium it seems wise to be on the dog. The number has even dropped a bit, but there’s still plenty of value here. 10*

Love the spot here for St. Joe’s heading into this “Big 5” matchup with Philly rival Temple on Tuesday. The Hawks just suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson while Temple is coming off three consecutive wins/covers. That’s opened up some real value on the underdog in this matchup.

St. Joe’s was a 12-point favorite when they lost to Fairleigh Dickinson. They were blitzed, giving up 97 points as FDU somehow shot an incomprehensible 57.6% from the field including 12 of 24 from three. I don’t see Temple doing that here.

While the Hawks have lost three of the last four games overall, including both when they were favored (also vs. USF), they do hold an outright win (as 5.5-point dogs) over another city rival (Penn) during that same stretch. 

While Temple has covered three in a row as a favorite, they were 0-3 ATS laying points prior to the current streak. Just don’t think the Owls are a team built to win by margin, at least not consistently. 

A key thing to watch in this game is that Temple really struggles to defend the pick and roll. St. Joe’s is a top 60 PNR offense. Take the points. 10*

Interesting matchup here as Kent State is a perfect 7-0 against the spread while Gonzaga is just 1-6 ATS its last eight games.

I’m assuming that at some point the market will catchup with these two teams. But I’m not sure it has here. Gonzaga is coming off a major gag job against Baylor last Friday where it blew a seven-point lead in the final 93 seconds. 

I suppose there is an argument, coming off a loss like that, the Zags will be fired up and looking to take their frustrations out. But do we really think they’ll be THAT motivated by a visit from Kent State, after losing a rematch of the Title Game from two years ago and a four-run down in Portland?

The underdog, on the other hand, should be really fired up and ready to go. This is a team that only lost by five at Houston (49-44) and its only two losses are by a combined seven points.

Yes, Gonzaga’s ability to score is always a concern. But Kent State is 12th nationally in 2-point FG% defense and top six in forcing turnovers. The Golden Flashes could have pulled the outright upset at Houston had it not been for some woeful shooting from three-point range (6 of 29) and Sincere Carry (who was 2 of 22). Take the points. 10* 

The Buccaneers are at home and facing the Saints, a team that has dominated Brady since his arrival in Tampa. It is a critical game, but neither team seems to be playing with much success lately. The Bucs have averaged just 18 points a game all season, a far cry from their heyday. The Saints offense managed a goose egg last week, but did hold a tough 49’ers offense to just 13 points. Both defenses have limited the opposition to just 17 points in their last three games.

Tampa, at 32nd in most rush categories, will do anything other than run the ball, despite the success they had against the Seahawks. The Saints will run but appear to be spinning their wheels for the last 3 weeks, managing just 3 yards a carry, 60 yards a game, and no points at all from the run. New Orleans’ pass attack under Dalton has been consistently very average, with nothing standing out other than too many picks, sacks and fumbles.

Brady has been accurate, well protected until last week, but playing small ball all season, with the 26th (and sinking) ranked yards per completion figures in the league. With Wirfs out and the usual Saints strategy for Brady of “go straight at him”, he may just sully his uniform this week.

The Buccaneers beat the Saints earlier in the season in New Orleans, but the Saints have owned the Bucs in the regular season when facing them on the road. I think the safest outcome this week is in the total. Look for both defenses to star against a pair of struggling offenses, and wager on the under.

The Celtics are an amazing 15-2 straight up over their last 17 games, but I think we’re catching them in a good spot (to fade) here in Toronto Monday night. This is the second night of a back to back for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, who defeated Brooklyn last night by a score of 103-92.

Teams off a win the previous day, playing in Toronto, are just 14-24 ATS (36.8%). 

Leading scorer Pascal Siakam is back for the Raptors, but he’s not the only one that turned in a big game Saturday against Orlando. O.G. Anunoby matched his season-high with 32 points in that game as the Raptors won convincingly, 121-108 and covered the spread as 11-point favorites. 

Boston has yet to lose in the second night of a back to back this season, which won’t continue. They are without their two best defensive players right now, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams. Shockingly, they still held the Nets to just 92 points on Sunday, a season-low for a Celtics’ opponent.

But don’t expect a repeat of that here. Toronto shot 56% as a team against Orlando. The Raptors are rested and ready here and at home where they are 9-2 SU and +5.5 points/game. Take the points. 10*

Vegas is in first place in the Pacific Division, and have an enviable road record, but I am not convinced of their "worthiness" this year.  They are barely over .500 in their last 10 games, losing to the Canucks and Kraken in their last five games.   Meanwhile the Bruins, who are full marks for their first place position, are 9-1 L10, and have yet to lose at home.  Boston has played the Avs, Canes and Lightning in their last three games and allowed just 4 goals.  This is not so surprising, considering they are first in goals-against, as well as tops in goals-scored.  They are also 2nd in PP, while facing a Knights team that is 24th ranked in the PK.  Rookie net minder Thompson should play for the Golden Knights tonight.  He has been very solid, if a bit uneven this season.  Not so Ullmark, Boston's goalie, who has been sharp and consistent all season.

Look for the Big Bad Bruins, who are also the healthier of the teams, to extend their home win streak. Boston to win outright.

Japan faces a very experienced Croatian side, who other than a dominant come-from -behind 4-1 drubbing of Canada, have been rather stolid so far, with a pair of nil-nil draws.  In spite of their loss to Costa Rica, Japan has impressed with a full throttle 4 goal qualifying round including victories over Spain and Germany.  The Samurii Blue are not timid, and have counterattacked and finished against two top teams.  I like their chances to score again on Monday, forcing Croatia into opening up on offense.  Japan is inexperienced, young, but very fast and will not be cowed, and will take it to the older Croatian side.  Look for the total to go over 2, with both sides scoring.  Third goal will decide it.

The Lakers seem to be back on track. They just beat the Bucks on Friday, which was their seventh win in the last nine games. What was most impressive about beating the Bucks was that LA scored 133 points against the top rated defense in the league. Anthony Davis had 44 points while LeBron went for 28.

Washington is trending in the opposite direction right now. They’ve lost two straight and five of their last six. In each of those last six games, the Wizards have allowed 110 or more points. They went off as four-point favorites in the 117-116 loss to Charlotte on Friday.

The Wiz have not been blown out during this recent downturn, but there is no denying the fact they are trending in the wrong direction. They were down double digits for most of the second half against Charlotte after surrendering 72 first half points.

The Lakers, a top 10 team defensively, have posted their two highest scoring games of the season in the last week. 

Washington doesn’t do a good job at defending the three (37% allowed) and the Lakers should also own the paint in this matchup. I expect another big offensive night from LeBron and company against a team that is just 3-7 ATS when favored this season. 10*

Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game between Oregon and UCLA on Sunday, but I say “not so fast.” Yes, the Ducks are 16-5 Over L21 road games and 30-14 Over L44 conference games. And, yes, the Bruins have gone Over in five straight. But I believe this number to be too high. 

Oregon’s highest scoring game of the year was a 74-70 loss to Michigan State. Their games are averaging 133.1 points/game so far, which is well below this total.

Now UCLA averages 82.6 points/game. But they are also only giving up 57.6 points/game at home. 

Oregon is the tallest team in the country and I expect that size to give UCLA problems at the offensive end. 

The Ducks are also playing pretty slow this season (237th in adjusted tempo) while UCLA is also outside the top 100 in that regard. Can’t imagine the Bruins will shoot as well here as they did in the last game vs. Stanford where they made their first eight shot attempts and ended up hitting almost 60% from the floor. Play the Under. 10*

St. John’s is still unbeaten, one of 14 teams in the country that can still say that, but I believe they’ll go down for the first time Sunday in Ames. Iowa State’s only loss was to one of the very best teams in the country (UConn), at a neutral site, and has continued to be an incredible story after going 2-22 SU two years ago.

Remember that the Cyclones have already defeated Villanova and North Carolina this season. They come in off a win over North Dakota - where they failed to cover as big 24-point favorites - but still won 63-44. Although laying points, we don’t need a big win here. 

This is the final game of the Big East-Big 12 Battle. So far, the Big East holds a 5-4 head to head edge after a couple of wins on Saturday (Villanova over Oklahoma, Xavier over W Virginia). But the real interesting thing is that the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up so far in this event, also covering the spread seven times.

St. John’s hasn’t really played anybody and this is their first true road game of the season. I’d say some of their numbers are misleading due to the lack of competition. The Red Storm did not cover in either of the last two wins, against Long Island or Niagara.

Iowa State is the better defensive team in this matchup. They are surrendering an average of only 56.3 points/game thus far and only 44.7 here in Ames! Look for the ‘Clones to hand the Johnnies their first loss of the season and cover the spread in the process. 10* 

The Titans face the Eagles, who are 4-1 at home, and on the rebound from a few weeks of indifferent play.  Their biggest concern is the alarming number of points they allowed against the Commanders and Packers. They are healthier this week and face a Titans team that does not put up a ton of points nor yards, nor do they control time of possession like the Commanders.  The Titans' offense is usually all about Henry and the run game, but that has not been the case lately.  The Titans have managed to rush for just 71 yards on average in their last three games, while running the ball just 42% of the game.  Tannehill has thrown the ball well over 100 yards more than the Titans' average, has been accurate and better protected in that time.  Facing the Eagles, the Titans might be better resorting to plan A, unless their is some issue with Henry.
The Eagles are just 18th vs the run but 2nd in passing yards allowed.  They will get to Tannehill (3rd in sacks)and are best in the league in takeaways.  As for the Eagles offense, this may be the game when we see Hurts return to his passing game.  In spite of the enormous success with the running game last week, the Eagles face a Titans team that is tough vs the run but 31st in passing yards allowed.  Let's not forget that the Eagles can be very good in the air, with the best offense in the red zone, and are 3rd in third down conversions.
I've  been on the Titans often this season with success, but I am afraid that they are catching an Eagles team on the upswing.  Henry's lack of success is troubling, and the Titans have some significant injuries this week.  Look for a better defensive game from the Eagles and  for Hurts to do what ever is required for victory.  Take the Eagles to win and cover.

The Falcons are in 2nd place in a very weak NFL South, but have failed to break .500 despite many chances.  The Steelers are last in their division, but appear to be the team with some momentum, showing improvement in many offense and defense area.  The Falcons are all about the run,  4th in rushing yards, with a trio of running backs and a good rushing QB in Mariota.  This rushing success hasn't translated into points as the Falcons have seen their scoring drop precipitously in recent weeks.  The 7th ranked Steelers rush defense matches up well against a run-first offense, limiting rush yards to an average of 67, and yards/attempt to 3.1 in in their last three games.
The Steelers are getting improved play from rookie QB Pickett and RB Harris, and have seen their points scored take a 25% leap over the last three weeks, including a win against the Colts and and impressive game vs the Bengals.  The Pittsburgh defense is much tougher on quarterbacks, generating 3 sacks last week.  The Falcons are one of the league's lightweights in passer pressure, and had no sacks last week.
I underestimated the Steelers' improvement last week, and won't be burned again.  They have been much better in controlling the game, with 56% time of possession rate in the last three weeks. Look for continued improvement from Pickett and a improving defense against a stagnant Falcons team.  The Steelers to win and cover.

The Giants, at home to a commanding Washington team, have fallen on harder times lately.  Their fine running back Barkley hasn't been nearly as dynamic lately and the rush offense has dropped by 30 yards a game L3.  This is a huge concern in a rush-first offense.  Where the Giants real trouble lies is on defense, with significant decreases in effectiveness in numerous areas; points allowed, and red zone defense to name just 2 of many.   As much as the Giants' defense has struggled, the Commanders' has surged. They've seen a drop in points-allowed from 19 to 14, and opposing passer rating drop from 90 to 70, comparing last three games to season average.  The Commanders' most impressive stat in their recent surge is their ability to control games through time of possession. and I believe this will continue on Sunday.  Their rush game, from a variety of sources, may not be flashy but they consistently move the sticks enough to maintain possession.  Heinicke doesn't thrill anyone as a passer, but has been very well protected in recent games, and effective as a game manager.  The Commanders face a poor rush defense on Sunday; the Giants are just 26th and struggling against the run.  They've allowed significantly more pass yards lately and in spite of a blitz-heavy pass defense, they are just 26th in sacks.
I've been riding the Commanders all through their recent success and am a huge believer in their continued success in week thirteen.  It may be more of "winning by inches", but take the Commanders to win and cover again.

UNLV is undefeated (7-0). Only 14 other teams can still say that. The Runnin’ Rebels are allowing 57.7 points/game and have been off for a week. Look for them to roll tonight at San Diego.

San Diego has lost three times, twice by just two points. But those losses were to Utah Tech and Nicholls State, hardly the same level of competition they’ll face tonight.

The Rebels haven’t been the most prolific offensive team, but they are turning opponents over more than any team in the country. That leads to extra points that are critical when needing to cover as a favorite. They also don’t foul much.

San Diego is letting teams shoot 48% so the UNLV offensive effort should be better than normal tonight.

Not only are the Torerors 0 for their last 5 (straight up) as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points, but they are 5-24 SU L29 as a dog! UNLV is far superior than what this line suggests. 10*

Since 2005, no double digit favorite has lost a Power 5 Conference Championship Game (22-0 SU, 13-9 ATS). So Michigan should feel pretty comfortable about its path to the College Football Playoff. Honestly, even if they lost this game, they’d probably still end up in the top four.

I don’t think the Wolverines will lose this game outright, but I also don’t think we’ll be getting a repeat of last year’s Big 10 Championship Game where they destroyed Iowa 42-3 as a 12-point favorite.

As is the case here, Michigan was off a win over Ohio State and staring at a playoff berth going into last year’s title game. But they were also looking to make a statement on a national level and weren’t guaranteed a top four spot as they are here.

Last year, most looked at the number and thought Iowa was getting too many points. No one is saying that about an 8-4 Purdue team that sort of lucked into the Big West title. But I look for the Boilermakers to be competitive in this spot.  They are 7-6 SU vs. Top 25 opponents the last five years and have beaten Top 5 teams in the past. Also, teammates will rally around QB Aidan O’Connell, whose brother tragically passed away. 

Unranked underdogs have fared well recently in Conference Championships, going 14-6 ATS when matched up with a Top 25 opponent. Michigan is dealing with the distraction of felony gun charges being brought against DT Smith. RB Blake Corum is officially done for the season. Too many points here. 10* 

This is 1 of 5 regular season rematches this weekend. In case you were wondering, there’s been no real significant ATS edge for either team - the regular season winner or loser - in this situation. At least going back to 2005 there hasn’t been. That said, I do like Fresno State here to avenge a 40-20 regular season loss that took place right here on the blue turf.

The Bulldogs were 10.5-point underdogs when they came to Boise on October 8th. But some context must be provided. They were without QB Jake Haener and the drop off to the backup is significant. It was also FSU’s third straight road game and they’d been out East (UConn) the week prior. 

Fresno State hasn’t lost since, winning seven in a row and scoring 30 or more in each of the last six games. Haener is now back. The team won comfortably, 30-0, last week at home over Wyoming.

Boise State has also gotten a lot better since 10/8, thanks to Dirk Koetter being elevated to offensive coordinator and a change at QB to Taylen Green. The Broncos are 6-1 the last 7 games with the only loss coming out of conference, by a field goal, to BYU. However, they have been shaky in the last two games, winning by only three at Wyoming and then getting a miracle cover last week vs. Utah State. It’s rare that you can say that a team won by 19 points and maybe should have lost outright. But that was the case for the Broncos last week.

The underdog has covered in 7 of the last 8 MWC Championship Games. Fresno State is 4-0 ATS all-time in MWC Champ Games, three of those covers coming against Boise. Eight of the last nine times these teams have played, the underdog has covered. Underdogs have won seven of the nine “Group of 5” title games outright the last two seasons. Take the points here. 10*

Charleston has gotten off to a nice start at 7-1, which includes winning their home tournament. Now three of their wins (Richmond, Va Tech and Kent St) were all by three points. But remember that the Cougars’ only loss, to North Carolina, had a misleading 102-86 final score. The Cougs led that game into the second half. 

Now this will be Charleston’s first time leaving home since that loss to North Carolina and also their first time laying double digits this season. But I think they’ll be up for the “challenge” against The Citadel, who may be looking ahead to their own game vs. UNC in 10 days. 

The Citadel was blown out at Butler earlier this year, losing by 47. Since then, they’ve won three of four with the only loss by three points. But the level of competition has not been strong and I believe the Bulldogs are severely outclassed here. 

Charleston likes to play fast as they are inside the Top 50 nationally adjusted tempo. That’s going to be a problem for The Citadel, who only averages 67.7 points on 43% shooting when you remove non-DI competition. 

While the teams haven’t met since 2016, this is a bit of a local rivalry (campuses just 2 miles apart) and Charleston has captured the L10 meetings. They’ll look to win in blowout fashion here. 8* 

The Blue Jackets are 1-4 on the road this season, and you can add to that a long list of players who are black and blue, listed as out or questionable.  The surging Jets are 8-2 at home, and have won 3 straight including a 5-0 shutout of the Avs.  Winnipeg has been overachieving on offense, piling up 17 goals in their last three games, in spite of a seasons average 3.2 goals scored for the season.  Where the Jets usually thrive is on defense, goaltending and the penalty kill.  Columbus does not match up well.  They are 24th in offense and really suffer on defense and the penalty kill (30th ranked respectively)
The Jets Hellebuyck has re-found his form after something of a lost year last season.  He is a better bet than the Jackets' Korpisalo, who has been uneven this year.  I like the Jets' chances today.  Columbus is a big underdog in this matchup, and rightly so, considering injuries and road record.  Take Winnipeg and their recent offensive success on the Puck line at -1 1/2.  Great odds here.

Conference USA is up first on Conference Championship weekend as UTSA will HOST North Texas. These teams met in the regular season, here in the Alamodome, with UTSA winning 31-27. But North Texas still was able to cover as a 10-pt underdog. I like them to cover as an underdog again and possibly even win the game outright. The Mean Green are 9-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season.

There were three touchdowns scored in the final 2:36 of that previous meeting, two by UTSA, including the game winner with just 15 seconds left on the clock. So North Texas was THAT close to pulling the outright upset, despite being -19 in first downs (32-13) for the game. I don’t see that FD disparity repeating itself this time. 

Now UTSA comes into this C-USA Title Game on a nine-game win streak overall. They have won all 10 games this season in which they were favored and done so by an average of 16.0 points/game. But that’s a little bit misleading. They had three blowouts over Texas Southern (FCS), La Tech and Rice. As a home favorite this season, UTSA is just 1-4 ATS.

Last week, the Roadrunners had to rally from way back to beat UTEP, 34-31. UTSA admittedly had nothing to play for in that game, but ended up having to score the last 20 points just to get the win. They fell behind 24-0 and got back in the game with a long INT return for TD. 

Including the win over North Texas, UTSA has had a fair number of close calls this season. Five of their wins have come by six points or less, two of those requiring overtime. Unranked underdogs like North Texas are on a 14-6 ATS (70%) run in these conference title games. Give me the points here as underdogs that have failed to cover at least two in a row coming into conference title games (applies to North Texas) are on a 19-4 ATS run, covering the spread by an average of almost 11 points/game.  10*

I’m going to call for a lot of points here as Pittsburgh and NC State open up the ACC portion of their schedules.  Take the Over.

Pitt has won four in a row - by an average of 21.5 points/game. Now beating Alabama State, Fairleigh Dickinson and William & Mary isn’t going to cause anyone to go running through the streets. But the Panthers did just hang 87 points on a Northwestern team that had previously been playing good defense. The total for that game was 128.5. That should tell you all you need to know about how Pitt performed offensively in that one.

North Carolina State is allowing opponents to hit 34.3% from three-point range. That is likely to be a problem for them against a Pitt team that is not only attempting 26 threes per game. Over the last five games, Pitt is shooting 38% from deep.

But where Pitt could run into some trouble here is turnovers. They are turning the ball over on 20.4% of their possessions. NC State turns teams over on 22.3% of possessions. 

The Wolfpack are top 35 in the country in both offensive efficiency and tempo. So they can score. Six of their games this season have gone Over. Pitt is 5-2 Over last 7. 10* 

The Bills face the Patriots at home in a much anticipated meeting. The Patriots haven’t face many top offenses this year, so the Vikings’ high point total didn’t really surprise. As good as their offense has been, NE can struggle against elite and especially rushing QBs. While Allen is playing hurt, there is nothing wrong with his legs, and he has a terrific track record against NE. The Patriots had very little success in managing Jefferson last week. Can they do any better against “Allen to Diggs?”

The injury-depleted Bills aren’t playing up to their early season standard in the last month, but it hasn’t been the offense that has taken the biggest hit. Buffalo has averaged 29 points on offense over the last three games, almost the same as their season’s average. They are running the ball more and had solid success in the red zone last week. Where the Bills have struggled in the last 4 weeks is on defense. They have seen their points-allowed climb to 27 over the last three games, up 8 from their season average. The Patriots, who are not the strongest offense managed to put up 26 points and over 400 yards on offense against the Vikings last week. The Bills have had reinforcements on the injury front, but now have Von Miller MIA, a huge hit. Jones had his best game of the season last week, with 3 TDs, no picks and a 116 passer rating. The Bills have allowed 293 passing yards in the last 3 games, and a 93 passer rating. While the Patriots are just 2 games away from a miserable 10 point result on offense, I think there is potential for them to put up some points this week again. The total is Thursday night’s best bet. Wager on the over.

The 3-7 Sabres won last night but gave up 4 goals with their best available net minder in goal.  Tonight's starter Luukkonen has played just 3 games this season, giving up more than 4 goals a game with a SV% of .845.
The 7-3 Avs were whipped by the Jets two nights ago, and won't be in a forgiving mood tonight.  Their offense has been surprisingly quiet this season, but it will absolutely break out, and tonight might just be the night. Colorado has the league's top PP, against a Sabres team that is 28th on defense and 26th in the PK. Buffalo has multiple goal-tenders out with injuries.  The Sabres can put the puck in the net, but face a very good Avalanche defense.
The Sabres are 1-6 in recent home games and 0-4 vs the  Avs at home as well.  Add playing on a back to back, with a 3rd or 4th line goalie, and you likely have an avalanche of sorts.  Take Colorado to win. A multiple goal victory wouldn't surprise me.

Delaware is only 3-3 but all three losses occurred away from home, one of them at Duke. In fact, this will be just the second home game for the Blue Hens with the first one being the season opener, which was a 78-54 win over non-DI Wilmington. Off the loss at Penn Sunday, I look for Delaware to bounce back tonight.

Cornell makes its two straight Ivy League opponents for Delaware, but the Big Red are not as good as Penn. They do play faster and that has led to 87.4 points/game during a five-game win streak. But those five wins have been against SUNY-Delhi, St. Francis (PA), Ithaca, Canisius and Monmouth. Not exactly a “murderer’s row” there. 

We’ve already seen this line tick up a bit and I completely agree with the move. I know Delaware struggled to get stops against Penn and that’s concerning when turning around and facing an offense like Cornell. But this being a home game is huge for the Blue Hens. 

They’ve won 16 of their last 24 games here and are also 22-6 straight up their last 28 games as a favorite. With such a short number, that seems worth mentioning. 

This is back to back road games for Cornell and while there’s been nearly a week between games, the Big Red simply can’t continue to shoot as well as they have. Lay the points. 10*

Canada was touted by some as something of a sleeper at the World Cup, but that hasn’t proven to be the case. They looked good vs an aging Belgium team, but were taken apart in the game vs Croatia. While managing to show some offense, they have struggled in the backfield with chaotic defending and less than exceptional goal tending. Morocco had stellar goal tending in their draw vs Croatia, and will likely have Bounou back vs. Canada. They were full measure for their 2-0 win against Belgium even with their back-up keeper in net, allowing Belgium very few opportunities on attack. Morocco is one of just two teams yet to concede a goal in this World Cup. With such a rare and excellent opportunity for Morocco to advance, they will not want to leave anything to chance. Look for an all-out push from the Moroccan team, handing, Canada its third straight loss.

Things are not looking good in Minnesota right now. Following three straight losses where the team posted a -11.9 net rating, the Timberwolves are a game below .500 and without Karl-Anthony Towns. 

But should the T’wolves be a dog at home against Memphis, who is still without Desmond Bane? I don’t think so. Dillon Brooks is also questionable to play tonight for the Grizzlies.

When these teams met in Memphis 19 days ago, the Grizzlies had Bane in the lineup and closed as only four-point favorites at home. They won 114-103 but I don’t think they should be laying a similar number, on the road, in tonight’s rematch.

The experiment with KAT and Rudy Gobert had not been working for Minnesota. So perhaps, short-term, KAT’s absence might be a positive. With one fewer big on the floor, the offense might open up and the T’wolves do turn the ball over less when KAT is not out there.

This will be the third time this year that Minnesota enters a game off three straight losses. They are 2-0 ATS the previous two times. Take the points against a Memphis team that is just 2-7 ATS on the road. 10*

Miami treated me kindly on Sunday at UCF as they were my 10* Game of the Month and delivered (just barely) an ATS win. The Hurricanes won by 2 (66-64) as 1.5-point favorites. Back in Coral Gables, I’m expecting a much larger margin of victory tonight as “The U” hosts Rutgers as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge.

The Hurricanes brought back a ton of experience from a group that made it to the Elite Eight last March. Jim Larranaga also did a good job in the transfer portal and the result is he has a team with four double digit scorers, led by Isaiah Wong, who is the team leader in points, assists and steals. 

This will be Rutgers’ first true road game this season. They’ve already lost on a neutral floor to Temple, which is the only game this season where they weren’t at home. Miami not only has the win at UCF, but also a neutral court victory over Providence. They’ve won the first four home games by an average of 19 points.

Rutgers has been good defensively, but lacks experience and that’s what has me worried for them heading into tonight’s contest. 

KenPom has Miami as a Top 27 team in the country in offensive efficiency. Rutgers has not faced anyone nearly as good as the Hurricanes so far, so expect them to fail their first road test. 10*

Philadelphia has not only covered three straight, but also eight of their last nine games. Joel Embiid is now back in the lineup and he just went off for 30-8-7 in the team’s 104-101 triumph over Atlanta on Monday. 

After that one-game stop at home, the Sixers are back out on the road where they’ll face another top Eastern Conference team. Cleveland has been a pleasant surprise thus far, ranking second in the East in both point differential and net efficiency. 

But the Sixers are right behind the Cavs in those regards and are also one of only three teams with a higher defensive efficiency rating than Cleveland. 

After getting off to such a great start, the Cavs are only 5-5 SU in their L10 games. They’ve ruled out both Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love tonight, the former being a far more significant loss. Over the last two seasons, their record without Allen in the lineup is just 10-20. That includes 1-3 so far this season. 

I recognize Philly is without James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. But they’ve got Embiid and he should be the difference maker tonight. Take the points with the 76ers. 10*

The Sabres, winner of just 2 of 10 games, face a streaky Red Wings team in Detroit on Wednesday.  The Sabres are below .500 on the road this season, but it isn't their offense that should be faulted for their lack of wins.  They've had solid and balanced scoring this year, with the fourth ranked offense and a 7th place PP.  They have, however, been quite shaky on defense, with the third worst defense and PK.  Not surprisingly, we have seen 4 of 5 games go over the total, including a 11 goal total on Monday.
The Red Wings are just slightly above average in all categories, although they have managed a bit more offense (4+ goals per game) of late.  They've been running with Husso in net, and for good reason, but it is Nedeljkovic who starts on Wednesday. He hasn't played much this season, and has allowed 4 goals a game with a save % of .880 in his starts. Detroit has been consistently good (7-3) at home this season, and have the personnel to make an impression this year.  With the Red Wings' weaker net-minder in, and the Sabres' firepower and leaky D, the best bet is the total.  Look for another high scoring game and wager on the over.

I like Butler to win this particular Big East vs. Big 12 matchup. Although, don’t lay the points. Play the money line instead.

Butler is 67-2 SU over its last 69 non-conference home games. They are coming off a fifth place finish in the Battle 4 Atlantis, a tournament that saw them get blown out by Tennessee (who is one of the best teams in the country), beat BYU and then lose to NC State. Being back in Hinkle Fieldhouse should be a boon.

Kansas State might be a bit overvalued right now coming off a tournament win in the Cayman Islands where they defeated Rhode Island, Nevada and LSU. The Wildcats got a late jumper from Keyontae Johnson to beat LSU 61-59. The Nevada game, while a nine-point victory, required overtime.

Picked to finish last in the Big 12 conference this season, Kansas State is shockingly one of 18 teams in all of College Basketball without a loss.

I think that unbeaten run ends tonight. Butler’s homecourt edge is being undersold. Again, just play the Bulldogs to win straight up here. 9*

The Clippers beat Indiana on Sunday, but are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. So we’ll fade this short-handed team in Portland tonight as the Blazers are a lot better than the Pacers, despite losses in five of the last six games. 

Portland is still in the top six of the West, right behind the Clippers, with one fewer win due to playing one fewer game. 

Now Damian Lillard is out for the Blazers. So there will be a lot of star power missing in this one. But Jerami Grant is picking up the slack with 29 points in the last game, which followed a career-high 44 in a win over the Knicks Friday.

In addition to no George and no Leonard, the Clippers are also missing Luke Kennard and John Wall. They won’t be getting another game from Ivica Zubac like they did Sunday. Zubac is averaging a double double, but the 31 points and 29 rebounds vs. Indiana was a fairly ridiculous effort.

Portland is 3-0 ATS when coming off a double digit loss. 10*

Iowa should roll here in what promises to be another easy win for the Big 10 against the ACC. The Hawkeyes come in at 5-1 on the season and, as per usual, are one of the more lethal offensive teams in the country. KenPom has them seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Now some might make the case that the Hawkeyes have been trending down ever since their big 16-point win at Seton Hall. They did blow out Omaha by 36 (hanging 100 in the process), however then only managed to beat Clemson (another ACC team) by three points and then lost to TCU, getting held to a season-low 66 points.

But Georgia Tech is not TCU. The Yellow Jackets are outside the Top 120 at KenPom and were blown out by Marquette, losing on a neutral floor by 24. They also lost to Utah. 

Every GT game with an O/U line has stayed Under, but that figures to probably change after tonight. In three previous games here in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes have scored 100+ twice and 89 in the other game. 

Just too much offense from Iowa in this one for the underdog to stay within the number. Georgia Tech is shooting below 30% from three, so I just don’t see how they can stay close. This team barely won at Georgia State. Iowa has covered 15 of the last 19 times it has been a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. 8* 

There are a couple of Big 10-ACC Challenge matchups today where I think the Big 10 team should roll. This is definitely one of them as Maryland faces a Louisville team that could be the biggest disaster in the entire country right now.

Louisville is not just 0-6 straight up, its worst start in over 80 years, but also 0-6 against the spread. They are one of just eight teams left that hasn’t covered a single spread. The season started with three straight one-point losses. Things have only gotten worse for the Cardinals since then. They lost to Arkansas, Texas Tech and Cincinnati by a combined 77 points. None of the games ended up closer than 19. 

Maryland is undefeated (6-0) and on par with those last three teams that Louisville has faced. Actually, the Terrapins are substantially better than Cincinnati. KenPom also has them rated above Texas Tech. They are ranked 22nd in the latest AP Poll, which is in line with KenPom.

The Terps six wins have come by an average of 21.3 points/game and they are allowing just 61.3 points/game. All six wins have been by at least 16 points and they are 5-1 ATS. They have averaged 93 points themselves in the last three games and have beaten the likes of Miami FL and St. Louis. 

This should be another long night for Louisville, who struggles to take care of the basketball. 10*

Still no Chris Paul for Phoenix. He’ll miss his 10th straight game as the Suns host the Kings Monday night in what shapes up as a pretty important Pacific Division matchup. Sacramento has been hot. They’ve won six straight home games.

Now the Kings do return to Golden 1 Center off back to back road losses. They averaged just 105 points/game in falling at Atlanta and Boston.

Given how much they’ve been scoring at home this year (123.9 points/game), one might be inclined to bet the Kings Over here. However, I see some regression coming their way. Their last three games, admittedly all on the road, all stayed Under. 

Phoenix has gone Under in four straight. They’ve allowed an average of 103.5 points in those four games. The Suns usually do a good job at defending the three-point line and that’s huge against a Kings team that will take a high volume of outside shots.

No Cameron Johnson either for the Suns. The Kings are 5-1 Under so far when facing a team that has a winning record. 10*

There are only 20 teams still unbeaten in College Basketball. Seattle U is one of them! The RedHawks are 5-0 straight up and have covered the spread in all three lined games. Their last game was an 89-53 beatdown of Pacific Lutheran. Seattle has won twice out on the road, against UC San Diego and Portland.

But Washington is obviously the best team Seattle has faced yet. The Huskies are 5-1, their only loss coming to Cal Baptist. Without a shadow of a doubt, the team’s most impressive performance to date came last Thursday when they stunned St. Mary’s 68-64 as 10 point underdogs.

It is telling though that UW is only a small favorite at home. They are not a great offensive team (153rd in efficiency per KenPom) and largely rely on a defense that plays a 2-3 zone, forcing the opposition into long possessions. Teams are shooting just 39.1% against the Huskies, 25.9% from three, and averaging 63.3 points/game.

Seattle has never beaten Washington in 14 previous tries. They were close last year, losing by only eight. This is a game the RedHawks badly want to win. With such importance placed on this one, I expect a lower-scoring game with fewer possessions than normal. 

The last two times these teams have played, there were only 120 and 114 points scored. Those games stayed Under by 22 and 21 points respectively. There’s value with this number now north of 140 points. 10*

Ryan is back at QB for the Colts, and while he didn't excel last week, he will face the Steelers' much poorer pass defense in Week 12.  Ryan has been very good at home this season, and while Jonathon Taylor is a solid running back, the Colts are statistically a pass-first offense. This bodes well against the Steelers, who are essentially last in the league when defending the pass.  The Steelers have a reputation as a top team against the run, which is somewhat true. They do limit the opposition to under 4 yards per rush attempt, and 67 yards rushing on average in their last three games, but given how poor their pass defense is, their last three opponents chose to pass 64% of the time.  The Colts have had problems protecting the passer this season, however the Steelers are not the man-eaters of yesteryear in passer pressure, with just a 14% pressure rating and 19 sacks.
Pickett played a better game last week but has yet to prove himself.  The Colts defense is tough to move the ball against.  They held the Eagles to just 17 points last week, allow less rush yards per attempt than the Steelers, and are 6th in passing yards allowed.  They are physically very tough on the passer with 28 sacks and 85 pressures to date.
The Colts are not out of the playoff picture entirely, so Monday will be a more meaningful game for them.  Look for another big game at home from Ryan, generating enough Colts points to win and cover.

The New Jersey Devils are on a terrific roll, bouncing back from their sole loss in ages with two straight wins.  They are 9-1 on the road, and facing an underachieving Rangers team that is just .500 at home.  Shesterkin, tonight's likely starter, has been more uneven than expected, with the Rangers struggling badly against top offenses.  Consistent goal tending has plagued New Jersey in the past, but not this year.  Tonight's likely starter Vanacek, has been both consistent and good, with the Devils allowing 12 goals total and 2 or less in each of their last 8 games.

The Devils' past history against the Rangers is ugly but that was then, and this is now.  They haven't met this year, and it is time for a little pay-back.  New Jersey has the third rated offense and the best defense in the league, and face a Rangers team that is only average on offense and could be out two top defense-men.  You won't find the Devils at better odds, so jump on this match-up!

We’ve got two 5-1 teams from the Sunshine State squaring off here. Miami FL is looking to avenge a six-point loss from last year. That previous matchup took place in Coral Gables and the Hurricanes were three-point favorites. You may recall that the ‘Canes ended up making it all the way to the Elite 8.

That loss last year took place in just the second game of the season. Despite the rematch, Miami is again a slight favorite to win here. This is the first true road game for Jim Larranga’s team, which has looked good so far with the exception of an 18-point loss to Maryland.

UCF lost to UNC Asheville (98-95) in the season opener. Since then, the Knights have stormed back to win and cover five in a row. They won a tournament in the Bahamas, then came back home to defeat Evansville by 20 earlier this week.

But this is a tough matchup for UCF. Miami has better guard play and I think UCF’s defensive numbers are a bit fraudulent.  The Knights were able to slow down Santa Clara in the Bahamas. But Miami as the most efficient offense UCF has seen this year.

The Canes are 14-7 ATS L21 road games and 12-4 ATS L16 against teams that allowed fewer than 64.5 points/game. Lay the short number. 10*

The Buccaneers tested the Seahawks defense in their European match-up, and the Seahawks, whose defense looked to be on the upswing after 4 straight wins, failed the exam.  Tampa doesn't usually run much, but wound up with 161 rushing yards and a win.  Fast forward to week 12.  The Raiders have Josh Jacobs, a terrific and underutilized RB.  What are the bets we see far more of him this week? Seattle can also run the ball and the Raiders' run defense isn't that much better than the Seahawks, but both these teams are pass-happy and normally rely on their strength in the air.   Carr and Smith are both quality QBs with very similar stats.  Smith is more accurate, Carr puts up a few more yards, and neither turns the ball over very often.  Both have quality targets.
The Seahawks, however, defend the pass much better than the Raiders.  Las Vegas has given up an average passer rating of 106 this season, and is worst in the league in sacks with 13.  The Seahawks play a harder defensive game, have double the sacks and are very tough in takeaways.
The Seahawks are a well coached team, and had their bye week to sort out their defensive issues. Geno Smith will have more time than usual to operate.  Week 12 is an important step for their play-off hopes.  Considering their 3-7 opponent, a win is a must.  I expect Seattle's defense to show up on Sunday and wear down the Raiders over the course of the game.  Take Seattle to win and cover.

The Falcons are very much a rush-first offense, with the second fewest passing plays in the NFL, and facing a loss to injury of their top Tight End this week.  The lack of a pass attack will be a huge issue when facing the Commanders on Sunday, as Washington's surging defense has sliced and diced the run, allowing an average of just 57 yards in their last three games.  In Fact the entire Commanders defense has taken off, showing significant improvement in all areas against not insignificant opposition.  The same cannot be said for the Falcons' defense who are bottom five in points and yards allowed.
Other than the run game the Mariota-lead Falcons are pretty limited.  They have put up points in their last 4 games, but haven't faced an defense ranked higher than 25th in four games.  Mariota is sacked a lot considering how seldom he throws the ball, but hasn't given the ball up often.  Heinicke has the Commanders offense charged up, but it is more as a game manager.  The Commanders' recent success relies on many short rush attempts, playing a very successful and time-eating style.  The Commanders are 1st in time of possession; the Falcons are 26th.  Both Defenses had success pressuring the quarterback last week, but for the Commanders that success is typical, with nearly double the passer pressures and Qb hits of the Falcons.
I've been riding the Commanders lately and am confident of further success this week. No one has been better at limiting points lately, and they will have their scoring opportunities vs. the Falcons' weak D.  Take the Commanders to win and cover.

The Buccaneers actually ran the ball consistently against the Seahawks and came away with a solid result, 161 yards rushing, a huge spike in their lousy time of possession stats, their best 3rd down conversion figures of the year, not to mention a victory. Let us hope that they spent the bye week refining their running game, taking some of the load off their aging QB.  The Browns' defense struggles in most categories, including against the run, allowing 135 yards average in their L3 games and a very high 171 yards in Week 11. Add on 5.3 yards allowed per rush attempt in recent games.  They haven't been much better against the pass, allowing a 111 average passer rating  as well as 27 points against in their last 3 games.
On offense, the Browns moved away from their potent run game last week, running on just 38% of their plays, but we can expect to see more of Chubb and Hunt this week.  Tampa's defense is solid against the run.  It was likely a one-off, but they limited Seattle to just 39 rush yards in their last game. This is likely Browns' QB Brissett's final game.  He has had 2 solid performances in his last two weeks, culminating in a 116 passer rating.  The BucS' defense is tough on passers, limiting yards and yards per attempt.  They are also pretty formidable in passer pressure,and 3rd in sack %.
Can the Buccaneers turn their season around?  Week 12 would be a very good time to start.  The Browns defense gives up 27 points on average per game.  Tampa's offense is showing signs of life recently, giving them something to build on. Look for a more balanced attack from the Buccaneers, more of their stout defense, and enough Brady-driven offense to win and cover.  It really is now or "not this season" for Tampa Bay.

Just pride on the line here as neither team is heading to the Mountain West Championship Game and both are already bowl eligible.

But Air Force will be motivated. Dating back to 2010, the Flyboys have lost nine straight times to San Diego State and are 2-7 ATS in those games. Most of the recent encounters have been close, however. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less. 

San Diego State’s offense has been reborn since a change at QB. However, Jalen Mayden has committed more turnover worthy plays than he has big time throws. Let’s also be honest. Those last two games, which saw the Aztecs score a combined 77 points, were against San Jose State and New Mexico.

Over their past five games, the Air Force defense has allowed just 7, 19, 7, 3 and 12 points. That’s only 48 points total or less than 10.0 per game. On the offensive side, the triple option is the last thing San Diego State wants to see this late in the season, playing a sixth straight game with nothing on the line.

Look for the AFA offense to control the ball in this one and the Falcons to end their long losing streak to SDSU. 8*

Both Notre Dame and USC have gone Over the total in their last five games. But I will be bucking that trend here with my biggest CFB total of the season.

Notre Dame has something that USC hasn’t seen much of this season, that being a good defense. The Fighting Irish are top 30 in scoring, holding opponents to only 20.3 points/contests. Also, no opponent has been able to reach 400 total yards against them. Not even Ohio State. Unlike UCLA, ND has an elite secondary. 

Notre Dame’s offense will also be able to control the football, thanks to the rushing attack. USC is very bad at stopping the run. One of the easiest ways to slow down the Trojans’ offense is to simply keep them off the field. I think the Fighting Irish will be able to do just that.

USC hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 2016. In the last four meetings, they have been held to 16, 27, 17 and 14 points. As for the USC defense, Notre Dame does not have the kind of passing attack most teams in the Pac 12 do. The Trojans also excel at taking the ball away (#1 in FBS). 

Only two ND opponents have been able to score more than 26 points all season.  The previous high O/U line this season for them was 58.5 vs. Ohio State. That game easily stayed Under. This is only the fifth ND game all year with a total higher than 48.5.  Play the Under. 10*

Coastal Carolina is missing QB Grayson McCall and has the Sun Belt Championship on deck. So that is why the Chanticleers come in as two-touchdown underdogs at James Madison Saturday.

In its first season at the FBS level, JMU was not even eligible to win the Sun Belt nor go bowling. But that hasn’t stopped the Dukes from turning in a highly impressive 7-3 SU campaign and even earning a Top 25 ranking at one point. The only losses came to Louisville, Marshall and Georgia Southern, all in a row. QB Centeio missed the Marshall game due to injury and the offense turned it over five times while against Ga Southern, the Dukes had a 675-590 edge in total yards.

I fully expect JMU to treat this as their “bowl game.” 

The Dukes’ defense is allowing just 82 rush yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. They allow only 18.6 points/game at home. With a backup QB, Coastal Carolina is really going to struggle to move the ball here. The backup QB (Jarrett Guest) is a huge dropoff from McCall and attempted only 14 passes against Southern Miss. 

Even if McCall were playing Saturday, I’d have the home team favored by a decent amount. They will want to show everyone just who the best team in the Sun Belt “really” is. Lay the points. 10* 

Butler and North Carolina State will wrap up the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament Friday night with fifth place on the line.

Butler was crushed in its first game here, losing 71-45 to Tennessee (was close for a half). But the Bulldogs bounced back with a 75-70 win over BYU last night. NC State got a lucky cover in its first game here (thanks to a last-second three), an 80-74 loss to Kansas. The Wolfpack then surprised me a bit by defeating Dayton 76-64 as a three-point underdog last night.

Looking at NC State as a whole, they are overly reliant on three-pointers to score and weak on the interior defensively.

Even in the blowout loss to Tennessee, Butler did a good job defensively, allowing only 1.03 points/possession.

The transfer portal has given Butler a key edge here. They now have Manny Bates, who chose to leave Raleigh. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Bates be the difference tonight. 10*

Now seems like a good time to fade Florida State, who has won and covered four straight. But this 4-0 SU/ATS streak has come against Georgia Tech (terrible team), Miami (also terrible), Syracuse (sinking fast) and Louisiana (bad). 

This just seems like a big number to lay in a rivalry game, especially since Florida should come in angry after outgaining Vanderbilt 445-283 last week, but losing on the scoreboard 31-24. The Gators previous four losses had all been to ranked teams and only one (Georgia) was by more than 10 points.

A mounting injury list is a tad bit worrisome for Billy Napier. It includes the Gators’ top two receivers. But I still say they stay within the number here. Look for a lot more designed runs for QB Anthony Richardson this week. Those were notably absent from last week’s playcalling, at least in the first half. By the way, Florida outgained Vandy 7.0 to 4.6 on a per play basis.

The SEC is a much stronger league than the ACC obviously and that’s another reason why FSU probably shouldn’t be favored by this many. Feels like it’s the top of the market on them.

FSU has not beaten Florida since 2017. The Gators are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season, tied with Ole Miss for the best such mark among SEC schools. Equally as impressive is that UF has also covered each of its last three times off a SU loss. Take the points. 10* 

The Bruins had their win streak snapped on the road last game, but they are back home with just 2 losses in their last 10 games, and have a sterling home record of 11-0.  The Hurricanes have a streak of their own, having lost 4 straight since managing a win vs the Black Hawks.  The Hurricanes can't put the puck in the net with any regularity; not at 5 on 5 (27th ranked) nor on the PP 930th ranked). The Bruins  are  best in the league both in goals scored and goals allowed, and 2nd and 3rd in special teams.  They'll have Ullmark back in net on Saturday, who hasn't lost since Nov. 5th, and sports a .935 Save %.  It will likely be Kochetkov for the 'Canes.  He struggled in a losing effort against the lowly Coyotes in his last start.

The Home team has a giant 7-0 edge when these two teams meet up.  I can't think of a reason that the Bruins might lose, other than possibly too much turkey? Take the Bruins to start a new winning streak on Saturday.  Boston to win.

The winner of this game will finish first in the AAC and host next week’s Conference Championship Game (likely against UCF). This is a spot Cincinnati is pretty familiar with, Tulane not so much. But I expect the Green Wave to come in and get the job done Friday.

Both teams are 9-2 straight up. But from a pointspread perspective, it is clear who has been better. Tulane is 9-2 ATS while Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS.

The Bearcats do have a 32-game win streak here at historic Nippert Stadium that they can lean on. But they are nowhere close to the team that made the College Football Playoff a year ago. Prior to last week’s 23-3 win over hapless Temple, where the Bearcats were +4 in turnovers, they had gone six straight games without covering. That includes narrow wins over East Carolina, SMU and USF that were by a total of 10 points.

Two weeks ago, Tulane lost 38-31 at home to UCF. But that is the only blemish on the Green Wave’s resume over the last two months. They bounced back in a major way from that UCF loss, crushing SMU 59-24 last Thursday. This is a team that went to Kansas State and won back in September! 

Cincy QB Ben Bryant is dealing with a foot injury and may not be able to go here. That seems pretty significant. Even if Bryant can go, I still expect Tulane to win handily. The Green Wave struggled with a mobile QB (Plumlee) vs. UCF. Cincy doesn’t have that element. 10*

The Dutch took their time about it, but persevered to beat Senegal 2-0. Ecuador produced a similar result against an easier team in Quatar.  Equador could be a bit of a sleeper  in the group.  They were 4th in South America and drew 1-1 against both Argentina and Brazil in the qualifying round. Equador has some fine young talent on the team, but got a pair of goals from 33 year old Valencia in Game One.The young Van Gaal coached Netherlands team, while inexperienced is rich in talent.  Their top scoring threat, Memphis Depay played just 30 minutes but is expected to get more playing time in Game 2.

By rights, Equator ought to be an easier match-up than Senegal, but those draws against top South American squads, and the number of goals that they scored in qualifying games should make the Dutch take note.  I expect at least 1 goal at least from each squad, as both have significant offenses and neither the Dutch nor the Equadorians are gifted in goal keepers.  Take the over, in this case, over 2.25.

Let’s go with the Under in the Egg Bowl. The number has come down, but I’m still seeing value north of 60 points. Eight of the last nine Egg Bowls, including the last five, have all stayed Under.

Those last five editions of this rivalry have all seen fewer than 60 combined points scored.

There’s disarray in Oxford right now with Lane Kiffin’s future seemingly in doubt. Maybe he stays? Maybe he goes? Regardless, Ole Miss is 1-3 its last four games and through three quarters last week had just six points on the board.

This Mississippi State offense can also run hot and cold. On the road, it’s been mostly the latter as they average just 19.5 points and all four games have gone Under.

In a rivalry like this, there won’t be a ton of points scored. 10*

The Giants, who have lost badly in 2 of 3 games, now face the home team Dallas Cowboys, hot off a huge blow-out of the Vikings.  The Cowboys can dominate on offense and defense, but struggle against running backs and rushing QBs on defense.  It is no secret; the Packers and Bears ran the ball with success, but it took Rodgers' best game of the season, and some explosive passing plays, to bounce back and win.  The Giants have a strong running back in Barkley and Jones at QB is another rush option, but as far as the passing game goes, Jones is hardly Rodgers at his best.  The Packers were top 10 in passer protection while the Giants are 27th in sacks. Jones is 28th is pass yards, 25th in Yds/completion, and had a QB rating in the 70's last week.  Not to mention WR injury issues this week. Or that they are up against the league's top pass rushing team.
The Giants have recent struggles of their own on defense.  They struggled in red zone defense last week, are 25th in rush yards allowed, 31st in rush points allowed, and 21st in passer pressure.  They gave up 31 points to a Lions team that managed just 6 against the Cowboys, and they have serious injuries in their secondary.
All of this at a time when the Cowboys offense is on fire, averaging 440 yards of offense and roughly 40 points in their last 3 games.  Prescott is finally fully recovered from injury, playing behind the best O-line in the league, and sporting a 115 Passer rating in his last three games.  They have had far more rushing yards and points than the Giants lately.
NY has been able to hold on to the ball and slow the game down this season, however the Cowboys had a  huge 62% possession rate last week, and I expect them to control the game again on Thursday.  The spread is 10 points at the moment, but both the Seahawks and Lions won by bigger margins in the past three weeks.  A healthy Cowboys team at home and on National TV can be a handful.  Take the Cowboys to win and cover against a depleted Giants team.

The nightcap in the Battle 4 Atlantis features #22 Tennessee taking on Butler. Need I remind you that the Volunteers have already lost a game this year, a real stunner to Colorado. The final score there was 78-66, a game the Vols were supposed to win by 16 points.

Butler also has a loss, on the road to Penn State, but I think that the Bulldogs’ offense has looked great so far. They’ve put up 89 or more points three times for Thad Matta, who is back here after becoming the winningest coach in Ohio State history.

Matta has five double digit scorers right now and Butler is top five in the country in both eFG% and two-point FG%. I know that Tennessee is solid defensively (#3 in efficiency per KenPom), but the Bulldogs will find a way to score enough to cover this generous spread.

Tennessee is also turning the ball over more than you’d like to see. The team’s point guard from last season, Kennedy Chandler, is now in the NBA. The Vols will obviously look to shoot a high-volume of threes here, but the only made 27% against Colorado, notable because that’s the only time so far they’ve played away from Knoxville.

In fact, Rick Barnes’ team is shooting just 37% overall from the field. I think the favorite struggles to score here and that leads to, at the very least, an ATS loss for UT. This is what I’d consider to be a “generous” number. 10*

The Panthers have lost 3 straight, including 2 at home, where they usually earn a very consistent W.  Their recent goals-against numbers are alarming with 16 goals against in their last three games.  This doesn't bode well for Wednesday's game as the visiting Bruins sport the best offense in the NHL, and have lit the red light 20 times in their last 4 games. Boston is also first in defense, and while the Lightning managed three goals in the Bruins' last game, the Bruins have allowed barely over a goal a game in their previous 7 matches.

With 8 straight victories, the Bruins are giving the upstart Devils a run for effectiveness a the moment.  The Bruins also lead the Panthers on special teams by a wide margin and have been very tough on the road.  Florida is a shadow of the powerhouse of recent years to date this season.  Look for the Bruins to continue on a heat wave in their brief trip to Florida.  Take the Bruins to win on the road. Again. And remarkably, as an underdog, if you act quickly.

The Final of the Maui Invitational should be a good one as we’ve got two Top 15 teams set to do battle - #10 Creighton and #14 Arizona. Both teams remain undefeated with Creighton 6-0 and Arizona 5-0. But, if I can state the obvious, someone is heading for their first loss here. 

Backing Creighton yesterday paid off for me as the Bluejays handed Arkansas its first loss of the season. As I said, that was a good matchup for Creighton as the Razorbacks are not particularly good at shooting threes and Creighton takes good care of the basketball.

It also helps that the Bluejays have shot the lights out thus far. They are making 52% of their field goal attempts thus far, which probably won’t continue. They shot 58.5% yesterday vs. Arkansas. 

Arizona does a good job at defending the interior, which is where Creighton finds a lot of its offensive success.

Creighton’s win was impressive yesterday and I certainly enjoyed it. But Arizona beating San Diego State by 17 was even more impressive. Talk about offense. The Wildcats scored 87 points yesterday and that was their lowest scoring game of the season! Three times they’ve hit 100! I’m laying the points. 10*

Two unbeaten 4-0 teams will tip off the Battle 4 Atlantis Wednesday afternoon, but there’s obviously a big gulf in class between #3 Kansas and unranked North Carolina State. 

The big story here is that Bill Self will be on the Jayhawks’ bench for the first time this season, after serving a self-imposed four-game suspension. I think that, and the close call against Southern Utah (just a six-point win), will have KU properly motivated for this tournament contest.

Remember that Kansas already holds a win over Duke in the Champions Classic. Jalen Wilson is leading the team with 24.5 points/game and has set career highs in points each of the last two games, including 33 vs. Southern Utah.

This Battle 4 Atlantis tournament marks the first time NC State has left home this season. They are really diving into the deep end here after facing Austin Peay, Campbell, FIU and Elon all in the comfortable confines of Raleigh. The Wolfpack like to take a lot of threes, but so far Kansas has held its opponents to 25.5% from behind the arc.

NC State, projected for a 10th place finish in the ACC this year, is going to struggle defensively in this matchup. Particular when it comes to preventing Kansas’ wings from driving to the hoop. Since the start of 2020-21, the Wolfpack have covered the number just one-third of the time (20-40 ATS) and are 12-26 ATS vs. winning teams. Lay it. 10* 

No 0-0 draws in this match! Both Germany and Japan went home with major disappointment after the last World Cup.  It is more accurate to say that the Germans, normally a world power, were humiliated, resulting in  a sea change in team makeup.  Both Germany and Japan have young and potent squads this year, and both play an all-out attacking game. 

Japan is an underdog, but is  a very well coached, organized, and driven squad.  They waltzed through their preliminary matches, and with many team members playing at a club level in Germany, will be familiar with and not intimidated by the German style.  The Germans also dominated their matches leading up to the Cup, but are very much offense focused, and not unknown to give up goals.  This could be a very fast paced and exciting game with, I think, a higher than average total.  Play on the over. 9*!

Creighton and Arkansas are two teams coming off impressive wins Monday in Maui. The Bluejays beat Texas Tech 76-65 while the Razorbacks smoked hapless Louisville 80-54. These two teams are now a combined 9-0 straight up to start the year with Creighton at 5-0 and Arkansas 4-0. 

Only one can remain unbeaten after Tuesday, obviously. While Arkansas’ margin of victory was greater on Monday, I’d argue Creighton’s win was more impressive, given who they beat. This could also be the spot where not having five-star recruit Nick Smith Jr (listed as “day to day”) finally catches up with the Razorbacks. 

The biggest area of concern for Creighton is defending the three-point line. But fortunately for them, Arkansas does not make, or even take, a ton of threes. The Hogs are shooting just 30% from deep through four games and average only five makes per game.

Where Arkansas thrives is forcing turnovers. But Creighton is well-suited to counteract that as they don’t turn it over much, ranking 13th in the country in TO rate. 

With four double digit scorers, Creighton is shooting the ball exceptionally well thus far. Look for them to prevail in this battle of Top 10 teams. 10*

This is all about which team is at full strength  and which team isn’t. Brooklyn has Kyrie Irving back and looks ready to make a move in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia won’t have Joel Embiid, James Harden or Tyrese Maxey tonight. That’s their three best players! 

As a result, I’m laying the points with the Nets tonight. In Irving’s return Sunday, they shot 60% from the field. Ben Simmons even had 22 points (a season-high).

Irving had 14. Durant had 26, so he’s scored at least 25 in all 17 games this season. There’s just too many options here for Philly to slow down. 

The Sixers have played 97 possessions this season without Embiid, Harden and Maxey on the floor. They’ve been dominated during that time, getting outscored by almost 16 points. Both the offensive and defensive numbers take a major hit.

This game could get ugly in a hurry. It should be an easy double digit win for the visitors. 10*

Miami and Ball State are both looking to get bowl eligible tonight. Both are 5-6 and have struggled down the stretch. But Miami is off a win and (in my opinion) the team more likely to overcome a potential absence on Tuesday. Plus they are at home. 

Ball State lost RB Carson Steele to a concussion last week vs. Ohio. Steele leads the MAC in rushing yards (1376) and is ninth nationally. He has accounted for nearly one-third of Ball State’s total yardage this season. He’d be a huge absence for this offense. But even if he can go, Steele would be facing the MAC’s #1 rush defense. 

Miami won last week despite not having QB Brett Gabbert. Backup Aveon Smith accounted for three touchdowns (two rushing) against Northern Illinois and that was not the first time this season that the RedHawks prevailed with Smith under center. I’m far more confident in the Miami offense without Gabbert than I am Ball State without Steele

I think that the Miami defense will be the difference in this one. Over the last eight games, the RedHawks have allowed 24 points or less seven times. The lone exception was against Ohio, the top team in the MAC right now.

So lay the short number with the home team, who is 15-7 ATS its last 22 games in Oxford. 10*

The Finals of the Hall of Fame Classic (played in Kansas City) go down Tuesday afternoon with 5-0 San Francisco taking on 3-1 Wichita State. Both teams won their semifinal games in impressive fashion yesterday. USF knocked off Northern Iowa 75-69 while Wichita State beat Grand Canyon 55-43. 

We’ve already seen a change in favorite with the line moving in San Francisco’s direction. Considering the Dons failed to cover against Northern Iowa (were -7), that’s pretty interesting, but I also happen to agree with the line move. 

The Dons like to play fast, much faster than Wichita State would like, and they take a lot of threes. They were 14 of 36 from behind the arc yesterday. The fact they were behind by 11 entering halftime may not sound all that encouraging, but the way they stormed back in the second half was. Also, while the Dons do love to shoot the three, you’ve got to expect they’ll make more than 11 two-point field goals in this game (that’s how many they made vs. N Iowa).

Wichita State is rightly earning praise following wins over Richmond and Grand Canyon, but let’s not forget this team also lost - as a 16-point favorite - at home to Alcorn State. I just don’t see the Shockers (57, 56, 55 points L3 games) scoring enough to stick with San Francisco this afternoon. 

Teams are shooting just 22% from three against Wichita State this season. There’s simply no way that can continue. San Francisco is the ideal team to send the Shockers’ 3-point defense into negative regression. Look out for Khalil Shabazz, who had 24 points yesterday for the Dons. 10* 

We head to Maui for our third and final College Hoops selection for the night. San Diego State is a favorite here over Ohio State and I expect the Aztecs to cover the number here.

San Diego State is a team that I’ve played before. The last time the Aztecs took the court, I laid a similar number (on the road) to Stanford and they easily came out ahead, 74-62. 

The Aztecs are outstanding defensively as they were a year ago. Last year they ended up #2 in the country at KenPom in defensive efficiency. So far this season, they are eighth. 

In terms of experience, SDSU has the edge here with four of last year’s five starters returning. They also added a key piece via the transfer portal with Darrion Trammell, who had averaged 19.5 points the first two games before going 0 for 5 from the field against Stanford. I’d expect a bounce back from Trammell tonight.

Ohio State had to hit the transfer portal hard after losing the likes of E.J. Liddell and Malakai Branham. Holden, Likekele and McNeil have all proven that they can be key contributors, but the relatively young Buckeyes have yet to face an opponent that’s this challenging defensively. Lay the points. 10*

Coming into MNF It is now the Cardinals who have injury issues, with key players out, and Hopkins and Murray both questionable with hamstring problems.  McCoy filled in well last week, but the Cardinals face one of the leagues' top defenses in the 49ers. Even after their win last week, Arizona is giving up 27 points on average in their last three games.  That 49er defense is hard to play against in all categories. Nobody runs successfully against them and with the Cardinals running less and less in recent games, SF can key on the Arizona pass attack, which has not been particularly dynamic this year, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion.  In spite of the Cardinals' short pass game, Murray/McCoy have been sacked at close to 4 times a game in recent action, a situation made worse this week by San Francisco's third-ranked (not third rate) passer pressure rating.
Given all of the 49ers' fine run options, it is surprising that they don't have more yards and points to show for it.  This could be the game when Mitchell and Samuel and McCaffrey all click and really impress.  Garoppolo and the 49ers' pass attack has some fine targets and has impressed lately.  They are now top ten in passing yards, with just a single sack last week and a very sharp 105 passer rating in their last three games.
On paper, the 49ers should blow the Cardinals right out of Mexico City.  They are giving up 8 points, an ugly number, but doing the math, I expect them to win and cover.  Look for a 49ers' breakout on offense, while the defense limits a lackluster and compromised Cardinals squad.

The 49ers are in Mexico City at a a point in the season where all systems are go.  They are healthier, have a dominant run attack, and very tough pass offense lately.  They face a Cardinals team who have grown one dimensional on offense, and with possible injuries to key players this week.  The Cardinals don't run the ball much, relying on a very short yardage pass attack.  While they beat the Rams last week, their passing game hasn't been especially successful this season, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion. I expect the 49ers to key on the Arizona passing game, and rough up who ever plays at QB.  The SF defense is tough in all categories, and the 49ers' offense are very strong in holding on to the football with very good time of possession and third down conversion stats. The 49ers don't normally put up huge point totals, but will be very successful at limiting the Cardinals' chances today.  Take this game to go under.

This is the Gulf Coast Showcase, a tournament that takes place in Estero, FL, which is just about 10 minutes from Florida Gulf Coast’s campus. The Eagles face a Northern Kentucky team that is tricky defensively and this should lead to a pretty low-scoring game on Monday night.

Northern Kentucky likes to play a matchup zone, which is difficult to break down and often leads to long possessions and bad shots by the opponent. FGCU is already not a particularly great shooting team (37.6 FG% in three games away from home), so they’re likely to struggle offensively in this one.

Few teams in the country play slower than Northern Kentucky. The Norse are 341st (out of 363 D-I teams) in pace. Again, that’s conducive to an Under play.

NKU is coming off a 64-51 win over Cincinnati. That was a game the Norse came in as 6.5-point underdogs. They held the Bearcats to 33.9% shooting.

FGCU could only manage 50 points against Tennessee in its last game, which it lost by 31 (they were 20.5-point underdogs). I just don’t see any way both teams score more than 65 points in this one and neither should “go off” either. 10*

The Boston Bruins are an absolute powerhouse this year.  Winners of 6 straight, and 9 of their last 10 games, they have allowed just 7 goals in their last 6 wins while scoring 24. They are also getting lights-out goaltending from Ullmark, while sporting the top rated offense and defense in the league.
How do the Lightning stack up?  They have a top ten (just) offense, but can't compare on defense (13th) or special teams.  Vasilevskiy has been very good in his last two games, but a bit more average than one would expect for the season, with a .909 save %.  The Lightning have a 4 game winning streak of their own, but it includes a pair of overtime wins.
A healthy Bruins team starts a very tough road trip today but are 5-2 on the road this season.  It is hard to go against the kind of dominant and  consistent brand of hockey they've shown to date this season.  As good as the Lightning have been at home, I am taking the Bruins to win today.  You won't see better odds for Boston very soon.

Utah takes on Georgia Tech here as part of the Fort Myers Tipoff. These teams are in the event’s “Beach Division.” Every team from the “Beach Division” was successful in games vs. teams from the “Palms Division” with one exception, that being Utah, who lost 65-55 to Sam Houston State as a 10-point favorite.

As a result of that embarrassing defeat, expect the Utes to come out motivated tonight. First off, SHSU had previously beaten Oklahoma before beating the Utes. The other big takeaway from that game is how SHSU, a team that was making only 50% of its free throws, went 12 of 14 from the line against Utah. 

Utah is usually pretty sound defensively. They’re allowing a FG% of just 34.0 and 53.7 points/game. I don’t think it will be very difficult to guard a Georgia Tech team that is only averaging five made three-pointers per game thus far.

The Yellow Jackets are 3-0 following an 18-point win over Northern Illinois last week. But this is easily their toughest test yet and being so limited offensively, I expect the underdog to struggle. 

One of the tallest teams in the entire country, look for Utah to dominate the boards in this matchup. We’re getting a cheap price on the Utes because of the previous result. Take advantage. 10* 

The Cowboys are on the road again, this time in a show-down with a red-hot Vikings team.  A pass-first team, the Vikings have a very successful rush offense considering they only run the ball a third of the time.  Add some great targets for Cousins, Jefferson being the standout, and you have a formidable offense.  The Cowboys have allowed 28 and 29 points in their last two weeks and 26 against the Eagles earlier.  They have been done in by their inability to handle the run, but their passer rating has climbed to 114/L3 games, in spite of leading the league in passer pressures.  The Vikings have a fine running back in Cook, who overachieves considering his usage.  I expect the Vikings, like the Packers, to run far more than usual on Sunday.
There are issues with the Vikings defense as well.  They struggle to defend in the red zone, and are  a miserable 29th in yards and passing yards allowed, with a whopping 486/311 yards against last week.  Prescott has much to atone for after 2 picks last week, but the Cowboys' pass offense has improved since his return.  The Cowboys are also 8th in rushing yards and improving, and may have both RBs in action this week.  The Vikings gave up 175 yards rushing last week, along with their pass defense  woes. This game is too close to pick an outright winner, but I am confident in the total. Sunday's match-up will not be a defensive gem.  Take the total to go over.

The Steelers are off a win, have TJ Watt back, and are playing at home, but face a very tough Bengals team this week. Joe Burrow is the 2nd best quarterback in the game, and has only improved lately, completing 77 % of his passes in his last three games, with a passer rating of 117. The Bengals’ O-line has improved this season. Burrows was sacked just twice in his last game, and the Bengals’ sacked % is lower than Sunday’s opposition’s numbers. Burrow seems impervious to sacks anyway and in spite of the hits he has taken, he doesn’t turn over the ball very often. Joe Mixon ran for huge yards in his last game, but the Bengals are usually very much a pass-first offense, a big advantage vs the Steelers’ defense. Pittsburgh shut down the Saints’ running game and are 6th in rush yards allowed, but they are not as tough against the pass. They are thirtieth for the season, though improving, in pass yards allowed and have managed only to hold QBs to a to- healthy 99 passer rating in their last three games.

The Bengals defense is reasonably balanced, underrated and improving in many areas lately including rush yards allowed and rush yards/attempt. They have a very good pass defense in spite of low passer pressure figures and are solid in takeaways. Let’s not forget who they are facing this week. Harris had a solid game on the ground and Picket ran for 50+ yards and managed not to throw a pick, but we are talking a 73 passer rating over the last three weeks and a 31st points-scored ranking this season. As good as he is, TJ Watt won’t be playing on the Steelers’ offense. Take the Bengals to win and cover.

This is the Final of the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. #16 Virginia upset #5 Baylor to get here while #19 Illinois rallied back to beat #8 UCLA. Whoever wins this thing is going to have a nice mark on their resume.

I like Illinois to win. Here’s the thing. Virginia just can’t possibly hope to shoot the ball as well here as they did vs. Baylor. 

The Cavaliers made 55.6% of their overall field goal attempts on Friday and were 9 of 14 from downtown. They also attempted 35 free throws and made 27. 

Illinois, I believe, has the edge here both on the inside and from behind the arc. Terrance Shannon Jr, a transfer from Texas Tech, is the player to watch. He scored 29 points against UCLA and was 8 of 9 from three.

Virginia has been uncharacteristically bad at defending the three-point line so far. They rank outside the top 300 in 3pt% allowed. Illinois scored 51 pts in the second half vs. UCLA after going for 103 against Monmouth and 86.5 PPG in the two contests before that. 10* 

The Commanders, on a short week after a massive victory against the Eagles, now face a struggling Texans team at home.  Washington’s defense has taken a step forward lately and is very strong vs. the run.  Their pass defense is still their weakness but they face Mills this week, who has struggled in his 2nd year.  The Texans’ pass defense had been their strong point, but has struggled lately, allowing a passer rating of 119 over their last 3 weeks.
The Commanders won’t be passing much anyway.   Washington hangs on to the ball better than any other team.  We saw their RB dual threat run the ball in roughly three yard increments on 60% of their offensive plays last week, with a remarkable time of possession of 67% against the top team in the league.  Expect a similar tactic against the Texans in Week 11.  Houston is worst in the league in rush yards allowed, and near bottom dwellers in yards/attempt and total yards allowed.  Opposing offenses run on the Texans on 65% of their plays this season to date, and it could be even more on Sunday.
The Texans have a very good rookie RB in Pierce but he really is their only option for rushing yards.  They are poor in converting on 3rd downs, and rarely put up any points on the ground.  The Commanders are 12th rushing yards allowed and improving, and give up very few rush TDs.  Mills is off one of his better games, but still has a very average rating of 76 in his last 3 games.
Washington has covered 4 straight times as a favorite.  I expect them to eat up both the Texans and the clock on Sunday, winning and covering on the road.

UNLV is 4-6. That means they must win their last two games to go bowling for the first time since 2013. Facing Hawaii here and then hosting Nevada next week, the odds are in the Rebels’ favor. But can they cover a double digit spread on the road? I say “yes!”

Doug Brumfield is back at QB for UNLV.  This is key. The team is 4-1 when he got hurt on 10/7 vs. San Jose State. They haven’t won since (five straight losses). But they are 2-0 ATS since Brumfield returned, losing a pair of one possession games to San Diego State and Fresno State.

Now it took a late FG for the Rebels to cover last week. They’ll hope to avoid being on the wrong side of such a scenario here. I think they’re fine. Hawaii, even against a weak schedule, is just 2-9 and losing by an average of 17 points/game.

Defensively, Hawaii is atrocious, whether you’re taking against the run or the pass. Brumfield and this UNLV offense should have its way.

Despite the perception of there being some sort of advantage on the island, Hawaii has the second worst home ATS record in the country over the last decade. This game means nothing to the Warriors, who have lost four straight and given up 96 points the last two weeks.

The Golden Knights are making up for lost time after last year’s painful injury-ridden season. They are healthier, and playing on the road certainly isn’t slowing them down. Vegas is 8-1 in their last 9 road games. The Knights have the fifth rated offense and third ranked defense. It is a very balanced attack, with a solid and deep defense, plus excellent goal tending from Thompson, Saturday’s likely starter. One concern on Saturday will be their PK. The Knights’ penalty kill is only average, but up against a very fine Oilers’ PP.

Other than the power play, the Oilers have underwhelmed this year. They are 4-6 at home, and just over .500 for the season. The issues have been familiar ones; secondary scoring, goal-tending, and a leaky defense. They are getting some solid goal tending from an unlikely source. Skinner has been super sharp in his last two starts, and good more often than not this season, although his play has not necessarily translated into wins. The Oilers just lost Evander Kane to injury, throwing even more of the load onto the top two. Draisaitl and McDavid are dominant performers, but can be limited by top defense like the Canes and Knights. After those two, the Oilers are very much easier to play against.

I like Vegas’s chances on Saturday. The Knights are balanced and deep this year, outscoring the Oilers in spite of D and McD. It may be close but look for another road victory for the Golden Knights.

We all understand that this is the end of a four-game road trip for Minnesota, who can now say they have won back to back games for the first time in November. 

Normally, the end of a trip like this can be a bad spot. But that’s not really the case tonight for the Timberwolves, who have had the last two days off. They also had two days off prior to beating Orlando 126-108 Weds night.

The opposition played last night, and for Philadelphia it was a hard-fought win here at home vs. Milwaukee. But the Sixers didn’t come out unscathed. Already missing James Harden from the lineup, they saw Tyrese Maxey go down with a foot injury on Friday.

So even though this will be their fourth straight game at home and Minnesota’s fourth straight road game, the situation is MUCH worse here for Philly. 

The T’wolves have posted a 127.5 offensive efficiency rating in the last two games, shooting 54% overall and 40% from three. They are in much better shape than the Sixers heading into Saturday. 10*

This is a lookahead spot for Ohio State, who is laying four touchdowns with Michigan on deck. I know it’s hard to take a Maryland team you know won’t win, but I make this spread a full field goal lower.

The reason this spread is so large is because Maryland has really struggled the last two weeks, losing 23-10 to Wisconsin and 30-0 to Penn State. It’s now five straight ATS losses for the Terrapins and QB Tagovailoa hasn’t looked right.

But I’m willing to bet Tagovailoa and the Maryland offense can make enough plays this week to stay within a very generous number. The QB had been having a good season. His completion percentage is still at 68.3% with 2152 yards.

Over the last 12 years, Ohio State has covered only twice the week before facing Michigan.

The Buckeyes also just really haven’t faced anyone this season. Their two toughest games, Notre Dame and Penn State, saw them down at halftime. Not saying Maryland will ever be out in front in this game, but they’ll stay close enough. 10*

So here’s a pointspread for you. Army, who is 3-6, is laying two scores to a 6-5 UConn team that has covered seven in a row. If that doesn’t set off “alarm bells” in your head, not much will.

This is a classic letdown spot for a UConn team - that against all odds - is now bowl eligible. That’s something NO ONE expected at the start of the season. The Huskies just stunned a ranked Liberty team 36-33 as a two touchdown home dog for their biggest win in YEARS. I can’t see them coming out with the same intensity for this regular season finale.

Army has scored only 16 points the last two weeks while losing to Air Force and Troy. But on the bright side, the defense surrendered only 23 total points in those two games. The Cadets have allowed 17 or less three of the last four games.

If you’re worried about laying points, look back to the last time that Army was favored. That was four weeks ago against LA Monroe here in West Point. They won 48-24.

UConn was -166 in total yards last week and has gotten two wins against backup QBs this season. The other two wins were against UMass (worst FBS team) and Central Connecticut State (FCS team). Trust me - you’re going to want to LAY the points here. 10*

These are two of the bottom feeders in the AAC. In fact, USF is at the very bottom with an 0-6 record in conference play and 1-9 overall. Last week, they made a coaching change, firing Jeff Scott after a pretty awful run. I thought the Bulls had a somewhat inspired effort for interim Daniel Da Prato against SMU even though they didn’t cover the spread.

They would have covered if not for going for two (down 18). The Bulls are now 3-7 ATS, which is not good, but that’s the same record Tulsa has at the betting window. And USF obviously isn’t the team laying two touchdowns here.

USF was tied with SMU at the half 17-17 last Saturday. Like I said earlier, that’s encouraging as a coaching change typically leads to a short-term spark. The thing with Tulsa is that I don’t see where any spark comes from. They can’t get bowl eligible. They are 1-4 ATS as a favorite in 2022. 

The Golden Hurricane have not gotten much going offensively the last two games. Part of that is an injury to QB Davis Brin, who returned only to leave again last week. The Tulsa offense couldn’t even gain 200 yards against Memphis. 

This is a hold your nose situation, but I just don’t think Tulsa should be laying this many points to ANYBODY at this point of the season. The Golden Hurricane are 0-5 ATS their last five games with four double digit losses. 8*

The Celtics have been winning a lot recently. Eight straight to be exact and over the course of that win streak, they’ve been scoring a ton. Six times they’ve scored 123 or more and this should be another strong offensive showing tonight in the Big Easy.

A career-best 31.1 points/game from Jayson Tatum is pacing the Celtics, who have been favored in every game this season. They are also #1 in the league in points/game at 120.4. Jaylen Brown is also averaging a career-high 25.4 points/game. 

The only negative with this Cetics team right now is that their defensive rating has slipped from 1st last season to 16th this season. Robert Williams III being injured has a large hand in that. 

New Orleans can score too. The Pelicans just put up 124 in a win over Chicago Wednesday night. They are averaging 116.7 points/game. It remains to be seen if Zion Williamson will play tonight, but even if he doesn’t, you’ve still got Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum to carry the scoring load. 

The Pelicans aren’t great defensively though as they are allowing 112.1 points/game and that’s not good facing this red-hot Boston team. Expect a high-scoring game in this one. 10* 

Lots of neutral site tournament action in Friday College Hoops, but here we’ve got Indiana traveling to Xavier for a true road game as part of the Gavitt Games. I think the Hoosiers are - by far - the better team here and will cover the spread without much trouble. 

Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman are hardly what I’d call “high-caliber” opposition, but those first two IU opponents didn’t stand a chance, losing 35 and 52 respectively. The Hoosiers have shot almost 60% from the field so far and Mike Woodson has a deep team here. 

Many believe Woodson’s team is going to win the Big 10 this year and I’m not going to disagree with that assessment, especially with what we’re also seeing at the defensive end (allowing just .664 points/possession). 

Sean Miller is back at Xavier for a second stint. But I’m not really high on this Musketeers team despite starting the year with three double digit wins (over Morgan State, Montana and Fairfield). There’s no way they will continue to shoot 45.5% from three.

First-team All Big East selection Colby Jones sat out against Fairfield due to an ankle injury suffered in practice. They didn’t need him in the last game, but Jones would be a significant loss going against a team like Indiana. 10*

I’m expecting this first game in the U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam to be a blowout. All signs point the favorite (Drake) winning very big.

About the only positive thing I can say about Buffalo right now is they are playing fast. The Bulls are listed at #1 in adjusted tempo over at KenPom. However, being that they are so inexperienced, the fast pace has led to a lot of turnovers and poor defense. Through three games, UB is 313th in turnovers while allowing 58% shooting from inside the arc (311th) and they are sending opponents to the free throw line at a very high rate as well. 

The result is a 1-2 start with nearly 90 points/game allowed. After beating Colgate by a single point, the Bulls have lost by 35 to James Madison (at home) and by 20 to UConn.

Drake is a team that can take advantage of Buffalo’s deficiencies. The Bulldogs should have beaten Wofford by more than they did on Monday. They won by only eight because Wofford made six more threes. It was a pretty woeful 5 of 24 for Drake from behind the arc. 

But they shot 68% on two-point attempts. Remember what I said earlier about Buffalo’s poor interior defense. Drake doesn’t turn the ball over much either. They’ve scored 80 points against two teams that like to play slow. Here, against a sloppy, inexperienced team, the Bulldogs should put a ton of points on the board and cover the number rather easily. 10* 

We could see a couple of run-first offenses when the Packers meet the Titans on TNF, based on the Packers’ success against the Cowboys. Henry and the Titans are formidable on the ground, and while Henry was limited against the Broncos last week, he’ll have and easier time rushing against the Packers’ sub-par run defense this week. That may not be the case for the Packers’ fine RB duo, Dillon and Jones. The Titans have one of the league’s top run defenses and are very tough in 3rd down conversions. We’ve seen a general improvement in the Titans’ defense lately; even the pass defense has improved, limiting opposing passers to a 74 rating in the last three weeks. The Titans QB pressure stats are among the best in the league, with 103 pressures, 29 sacks and 40 knock-downs. They are tough in points allowed, 3rd down conversions, and take-aways as well, making for a difficult evening for Rodgers on Thursday.

The Packers defense, as mentioned, is weak against the run, but tough for the season, though regressing lately, in the air. Their passer pressure stats are below average, but are up against a Titans O-line that has struggled to protect Tannehill, last week being the exception.

Rodgers had his best game of the season last week, but one game does not a season make. He and the Packers’ offense has struggled with picks and fumbles this season. The Packers successfully exploited the Cowboys’ poor run defense last week. Rogers actually threw less than average, although more successfully. He is still banged up with an injured thumb on his throwing hand.

I like Henry to bounce back with a big game on a chilly Thursday night. Tannehill is also off his best game of the season, and is an underestimated offense manager. Take the visiting team Titans to cover, although a win would not surprise me.

The 8-2 Islanders travel to Nashville to meet the Preds who have won 2 straight at home, allowing just a pair of goals total.  They only scored 4, and that has been the way of their offense this year.  They are 30th in the league in goals scored and PP performance,  while the defense has been average.  The difference in the last two game is that Saros, who has played to mixed reviews this season, has found his usual form, with a save % of over .970 in those games.
The 8-2 Islanders have their usual strong defense (5th in the league), but this year they are putting the puck in the net with a bit more frequency.  They have been good on the road, and also have a sharp goaltender at the moment. Sorokin has been terrific all season, allowing just over 2 goals a game, with a .932 save %. Nashville has been very stingy on the road, and with two top goalies involved, we could see a tight game on Thursday.  Take the under in a good old goalies' duel.

This is a big game for Tulane. Not only is it their home finale, being played in front of a national TV audience no less, but the Green Wave are off a tough 38-31 loss here to UCF last week. To get a shot at revenge (at UCF) and a place in the AAC Champ Game, Tulane is going to have to win the last two games. I like their chances tonight and will be laying the short number.

Revenge must also be considered when handicapping this matchup. Tulane has lost to SMU seven straight times, but four of the last six losses have been by four points or less. It was a blowout in the Metroplex last season, but that was a much worse Tulane team (that finished 2-10 SU). 

This is Willie Fritz’s best team yet, one that is ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings. It was an unusually poor defensive effort that cost the Green Wave last week, not to mention falling behind 10-0 just four minutes into the game did not help. I expect a better effort on the defensive side of the ball here, from a group that is still only allowing 18.7 points/game at home. I think this Tulane defense can also limit explosive plays from Tanner Mordecai and the SMU offense.

SMU has won three in a row straight up and covered the number in four straight. But two of those three SU wins came against the bottom-feeders of the AAC (Tulsa, USF). The Mustangs’ defense is a liability coming into this matchup as it has given up 32.6 points/game for the season and 40.0 the L3 weeks. 

Even with the loss last week, Tulane has an excellent home record under Fritz, including 4-1 SU/ATS in finales. Overall, they are 26-10 ATS L36 home games. Two road games in six days is not a great spot for SMU, who was tied at the half last week vs. USF. 10* 

This figures to be a fast-paced, up-tempo game with a ton of scoring from both teams. St. John’s has played very fast in its first three games, all of which have gone Over. Led by some key transfers, the Red Storm are currently playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the country per KenPom.

Nebraska isn’t playing quite as fast, but the Cornhuskers are 69th in tempo. They have shot 55% from inside the three-point arc in two games, which were wins over Maine and Omaha. They averaged 77 points/game.

Tonight is a clear step up in competition for the ‘Huskers. I do worry about them defensively in this matchup. They allowed those first two opponents to shoot 37% from three-point range and I don’t see them having much of an answer for St. John’s big man Joel Soriano, especially if Derrick Walker remains out. 

St. John’s has shot almost 55 percent from the field in their first three games and 41% from three. But they too have defensive issues as more than 40% of the points they allow are coming from behind the arc. 

The Red Storm going Over the total is not new. They are 24-8 Over the last 32 times they’ve been favored. 10*

Golden State is just 6-8 to start the year, but they showed signs of life on Monday when they blew out San Antonio at home by a score of 132-95. I like them here on the road against a banged up Suns team.

Count on the Warriors taking this one seriously. It’s a chance to beat their main division rival and the team that has had the best record in the Western Conference over the last two years.

This is also a huge revenge spot as the Warriors were blown out by 29 points when they faced the Suns earlier this year. 

Phoenix has dropped two in a row coming into tonight, first to Orlando (114-97) and then to Miami (113-112). Overall, they are 2-4 L6 games. Two starters have been out - Chris Paul and Cam Johnson. Only Paul (questionable) has a chance of seeing the floor tonight. The defense has really fallen off a cliff with those two out and while Paul’s replacement Cam Payne did look good in a couple of the games, he went 4 of 17 against the Heat.

Golden State’s starting five has looked excellent of late and Steph Curry should be ready to go after playing a season-low 27 minutes against the Spurs. All signs point to this being a “statement game” for the Warriors. 10*

This is a revenge game for Chicago. They lost 115-111 at home to New Orleans exactly one week ago. That result was followed by another loss for the Bulls as they went down 126-103 at the hands of Denver on Sunday. The team has now dropped four of its last five.

But this time the Bulls catch the Pelicans in the second game of a back to back. New Orleans was kind to me last night with a 113-102 win over Memphis. I laid the short price as the Grizzlies were without one of their two best players (Desmond Bane). That was obviously a wise decision. 

The Pelicans didn’t even need Zion Williamson to win last night. He sat, but six teammates finished in double figures led by 30 points from CJ McCollum (who I predicted would have a big game). As a team, NO went 18 of 38 from three-point range.

I don’t see the Pelicans shooting as well tonight, even if Williamson returns, as they went just 3 of 19 on three-pointers the last game vs. Chicago. 

That previous meeting was closely contested with 14 lead changes and nine ties. Now, Chicago is better rested (just two games in last seven days) while New Orleans played last night. A big problem for the Pelicans has been interior defense, so that’s an area the Bulls need to attack here. 10* Chicago

We've got the league's two worst offenses facing off today when the Blues meet the home team Black Hawks.  St. Louis's defense has been no great shakes either, but they did limit Vegas and the Avs to two goals each in their latest games.  Chicago's defense has been above average to date.  Blues net minder Binnington bounced back with a couple of fine .940+ save % games in his latest appearances.  Soderblom has opened some eyes in Chicago allowing just 2.6 goals a game.  It is no surprise that the rebuilding Black Hawks haven't been able to sustain their fine start. They have struggled to score lately with 6 straight unders to show for it.  The Blues have been a mixed bag, but  Binnington is capable of being a game changer, and the Blues seem to be more defensibly responsible in their last three games.  Take today's game to go under again.

Eastern Michigan got bowl eligible with a 34-28 win against Akron last Tuesday. So from here on out, the Eagles are simply trying to move up the bowl pecking order. They can’t win the MAC West (Toledo has already clinched). 

Meanwhile, going into last week, Kent State knew that it had to win out to get bowl eligible. Well, “step one” was accomplished as the Golden Flashes went to Bowling Green and prevailed 40-6 as 2.5-point chalk. I had the Under in that game, which cashed. Going the same route again here

The Under is 7-3 in all of Kent State’s games this season. Since Oct 1, only one has seen more than 60 combined points scored and that at Toledo. While the Flashes are not where they want to be in the standings, they do have a defense that is very good at holding opponents to field goals (top 20 in red zone efficiency). 

The Eastern Michigan defense tackles well and does not give up a ton of big plays. Since October 1st, the Eagles have allowed more than 28 points only one time and that was a strange game vs. Northern Illinois. 

Each of the previous three seasons these teams met and the Under has gone 3-0. None of the three games saw more than 60 combined points scored. 8* 

A “mid-major” laying points on the road against a Power 5 Conference team speaks volumes and in the case of San Diego State-Stanford, the number is more than justified. SDSU is no “ordinary” mid-major. They’ve made back to back NCAA Tournament appearances and are the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Stanford has yet to appear in the Big Dance since Jerod Haase came to Palo Alto in 2016.

San Diego State is excellent defensively. They ranked 2nd in efficiency in the KenPom rankings a year ago and have allowed the ninth fewest points per 100 possessions to start this season. The Aztecs held Cal State Fullerton to 57 points and BYU to 75. 

Stanford figures to have all sorts of trouble scoring tonight. The Cardinal are shooting just 23.7% from three thus far and were just held to 50 points by Wisconsin on Friday. They are 0-2 ATS on the year, having also failed to cover the season opener vs. Pacific.

A real encouraging sign for San Diego State to start the season is that they’ve scored 80 points in both games. That’s something they did only once all of last season. Stanford let Pacific score 78. 

Back to the San Diego State defense - they have been outstanding at forcing turnovers. CS Fullerton and BYU coughed it up a combined 38 times. Not only has Stanford turned it over a total of 34 times so far, but they had one of the worst turnover rates in the country last year. This is a terrible matchup for the home side. Lay the points. 10* San Diego State

Chattanooga lost its season opener at Charleston 75-68, but that loss certainly doesn’t look so bad now after Charleston gave #1 North Carolina a game. Chattanooga also quickly bounced back with a 93-49 win over Oakland City last Thursday. 

Ole Miss is a not surprising 2-0 as they’ve defeated Alcorn State 73-58 and Florida Atlantic 80-67. The Rebels came out more aggressive in the second game and ended up shooting 50% overall and 40% from three against FAU.  

There was a defensive lapse in that FAU game as Ole Miss let a 17-point second half lead dwindle down to six. But give the Rebels’ credit for then immediately bouncing back with a 12-5 run of their own. This team is getting outstanding production from its bench so far. Rebels’ reserves have combined to score 69 points in the two games.

Ole Miss will be tested defensively here as Chattanooga likes to push pace a lot more than either Alcorn State or FAU. But the flip side of that is the Rebels should see more scoring opportunities. This is likely to be their highest scoring game yet, so that means more than 80 points from them.

Therefore, we won’t need a ton from Chattanooga to send this game Over the total. Being that the Mocs have averaged 85.5 points the first two games, they should give us more than enough. 10*

Memphis is 9-5 with five wins in their last seven games. But they did lose on Sunday, 102-92 at Washington, without Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. That loss was also the Grizzlies’ lowest scoring game of this season. They are now 0-3 this year when either Morant or Bane does not suit up. 

Morant is off the injured list and Jaren Jackson Jr seems set to make his season debut tonight. But Bane being out 2-3 weeks is a significant loss considering he’s the team’s top three-point shooter. 

The Grizzlies have a pretty mediocre net efficiency rating. I think it’s fair to say that - so far - their schedule has not been all that daunting.

New Orleans is 7-6 and coming off a 119-106 win over Houston on Saturday. They’ll be home now through Thanksgiving, so they need to take advantage. So far the Pelicans are just 3-2 in home games. 

I understand Memphis’ optimism with JJJ and Morant returning. But New Orleans has the better point differential and net efficiency rating this season. Even if Zion Williamson doesn’t play, the Pelicans have enough depth to pull this one out. In particular, look for CJ McCollum, long overdue to get hot, to have a big game. The Grizzlies let Washington hit 19 threes on Sunday. Lay the short number here. 10*

The I-75 Trophy is on the line tonight at the Glass Bowl where Toledo hosts rival Bowling Green. Toledo has already wrapped up the MAC West, so these last two games don’t mean much to them. Bowling Green still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. 

Based on the recent history of this rivalry, BG is unlikely to get its sixth win tonight. They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 meetings vs. Toledo including 49-17 last season. The one win over the Rockets came in 2019, at home, as 26.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Falcons much of a shot tonight either with a spread of more than two touchdowns.

Bowling Green’s offense has been very poor of late. Four of the last six games have seen them held to 17 points or less. Last week was a disaster as they got blown out 40-6 at home by Kent State. I cashed the Under in that game as well. 

Toledo was a 28-21 winner last week against Ball State, another game where I cashed in. I had Ball State plus the points. The Rockets are actually 0-3 ATS L3 games and have scored just 27, 27 and 28 points. 

Assuming the Toledo offense doesn’t go “wild” tonight, this game should easily stay Under the number. The BG defense had been pretty good prior to last week. The 40 pts allowed to Kent State matched the number allowed the previous three games combined (18, 13, 9). The Falcons are also among the nation’s leaders in sacks. But the BG offense still stinks and Toledo is allowing only 15.8 PPG at home. Take the Under. 10*

The Commanders were in tough against the Vikings last week and won their three previous games but they are on the road against a team that is consistently good in just about every area on Monday.  Not to mention healthier and better rested.  The Eagles run defense is their weak point, and the Commanders do have their 2 player run attack performing well, but the Commanders don't put up many rush points. The Commanders' pass attack is very pedestrian, and will face a pass defense that is formidable in takeaways, passer rating, sacks, etc, etc.  I really don't see the Commanders scoring a ton of points on Monday. Wentz is probably very lucky to be out of this one.
Can Washington slow down the Philadelphia offense?  They've been tough against the run recently, but haven't faced any really stiff rush competition in a few weeks.  They are poor against the pass, just 27th in average passer rating, and aren't particularly tough to play against.
The Eagles have a variety of looks on offense, and can switch on the fly if something isn't working.  Hurts hasn't run as much with Sanders rushing as well as he has, but the QB can be a force on the ground and in the air. We've seen some shocking results so far in Week Ten, but I think this game will likely go as expected. The Eagles' first half vs. the Texans was a surprise last week, especially with Pierce running so effectively.  I expect an adjustment from the Eagles, and a huge effort under the lights of MNF against a very beatable Commanders' team. Take the Eagles to win and cover that big number in prime time.

This is a tough spot for Wofford. After losing 91-80 at High Point, a game they were favored to win, this is the second road game in three days for the Terriers. I don’t like their chances.

Meanwhile, Drake has played only once - last Wednesday - and they easily defeated IUPUI by a score of 80-48. 

For Wofford, the best player from last season is back. B.J. Mack led the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in 2021-22. Mack has averaged 18 points in the first two games this year. The problem is that he doesn’t have much returning help. After Mack, last year’s top seven scorers all departed. They’ve been replaced by JUCOs and six freshmen. 

Against High Point, the Terriers never really stood a chance. They were down 17 at halftime and just couldn’t get enough stops in the second half.

Unlike tonight’s opponent, Drake is an experienced team. Five players started at least 13 games on last year’s 25-win squad, making them the logical favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference in 2022-23. The Bulldogs are a very deserved double digit favorite in this game and should have no problem covering the spread. 10*

Houston hosts Oral Roberts Monday night. The third-ranked Cougars have played twice thus far and as you’d expect, based on the opponents, won big both times. It was a 47-point win over Northern Colorado followed by a 26-point win over St. Joe’s. The latter was played at a neutral court (Annapolis).

In their season opener, Oral Roberts had a tough time early on with what looks like a very good St. Mary’s team. The Eagles were down big at the half before rallying late to get inside the number. Their second game was a 95-62 win over John Brown, a non-board team.

The key to handicapping this matchup is that Houston is going to try and slow ORU down. Oral Roberts would like to play fast, but that is easier said than done against this tough Cougars’ squad.

Houston has been gifting opposing teams too many free throw attempts thus far, so that’s probably going to be a point of emphasis for coach Kelvin Sampson. As long as the issue does not persist, Oral Roberts just isn’t going to score very many points here. Houston is 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 343th in tempo.

This is a higher total than what we saw for Oral Roberts-St. Mary’s and it should not be. Take the Under. 10*

The Cowboys come into their road game with the Packers healthy, rested and on a two game win streak, none of which can be said of the Packers.  On offense, they have seen a huge improvement since the return of Prescott, plus games against a couple of lesser lights.  One of those 'lesser lights' just beat up on Green Bay last week.  There is almost no area where the Packers can match the Cowboys offense over their last three games.  Prescott has bounced back from injury well, and the run game has taken off in recent weeks.
The Packers are off an historically poor performance, with Rodgers throwing 3 picks and playing to a passer rating in the 50's.  This against one of the worst defenses in the league.  On defense, it is something of a different story.  The Cowboys allowing 29 points and 240 rush yards to the Bears is concerning.  The Cowboys can be run on, but that hasn't translated into points to date.  The Packers could run more, with solid running backs in Dillon and Jones (limited), but haven't so far and are a poor 30th in the league in rush points scored.  Then there is the Cowboys' passer pressure to consider.  Rogers is generally well protected, but that may change on Sunday.  Dallas averages 4 sacks a game and is first in QB pressure, with Green Bay well down the list. The Cowboys are also very good in takeaways, and Rodgers, as we saw last week, is not immmune to throwing the ball away.
The Packers are a much injured team this week.  I had hopes for the Packers' offense to show up last week, but won't be holding my breath on Sunday Look for the Cowboys to win and cover in this touted grudge match.

The Broncos managed 21 points in their last game and are off a bye in week 9 but they face a tough run-crazy Titans squad just minutes away from beating the Chiefs last week.  The Broncos offense has been a disappointment but the defense has been spot-on this year.  They are tough to score on and defend well in the red zone, but are best against the pass, which is definitely secondary in the Titans' plans. Note that the Broncos also lost their top pass rusher, traded away at the deadline.   The Broncos can be run on, at 21st and 27th in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt, but they are not as easy to score rush points on. Both of these teams' defenses are about equally hard on passers,while neither team is particularly good at protecting their own QB.
The Titans defense is especially strong on third down and has allowed even less points than the Broncos lately.  They are very tough against the rush, limiting both points and yards.  They do give up plenty of passing yards, although the whopping 420+ against the Chiefs was hardly typical.
The Titans run the ball more than just about anyone, and their passer stats suffer accordingly, both in yards and passer rating.  The loss of Tannehill was a large but not insurmountable blow, but he is expected back this week.  Tannehill is an excellent and underestimated offense manager, who passes as needed without too many mistakes. With rookie Malek behind center, we saw passer yards and effectiveness drop to a low of 57 yards and with a miserable 49 passer rating.  It didn't affect Henry much. Everyone knew he would run and just couldn't stop him.
With an average of just 15 points a game, the Broncos haven't shown much in the way of pass or run offense.  Wilson is 29th in passer yards and passer rating, and has been sacked 3 times a game on average. Wilson hadn't settled into the Broncos offense before their bye although his last game was an improvement.  The Titans just experienced Mahomes at his finest, and still weathered the storm.  I will believe in the Broncos' improved offense when I see it.
With the spread less than a field goal, I like the Titans' chances on Sunday.Tennessee bypasses the best part of the Broncos' defense, and should hold up well against the offense.  Tannehill returning would be a huge bonus. Take the Titans to win and cover.

The Giants will be running fools on Sunday at home to the Texans, partly because that is what their offense does best. The Barkley/ Jones duo leads the Giants to 4th best in the league in rushing yards.  It is also what the Texans' defense does worst. They are 32nd in rush yards allowed and 30th in yards per attempt among other unflattering stats.  The Texans will also run. Their rookie RB Pierce was  terrific in his last game a huge bounce-back from week 8, but he is a beaten up this week. The Texans pass game has struggled this season; 26th in passing yards, 27th in yards/completion and an 80 passer rating for the season.  Mills throws to may picks compared to touchdowns.  Both teams are solid in passer pressures, esp the Texans.
The Giants offense is very tough to get off the field at the best of times but should be able to move the ball successfully on the ground against the Texans.  Their defense is tough in the red zone and limits 3rd down conversions.  Both these teams struggle to put up points at the best of times.  Sunday could be a very slow march of a game.  Take the total to go under.

It will be Barkley vs Pierce, two very good RBs looking to lead a pair of run-first offenses when the Texans take on the Giants in New York.  Pierce is banged up, but likely to play and off a very impressive rebound game against the Eagles.   Barkley is healthy and well rested after a bye week, and playing against the worst run defense in the league.  The Texans are 32nd in rush yards allowed and very poor in all other categories, and of course, teams routinely run against them most of the time.  In this case it will Barkley and QB Jones, a terrific one-two punch, 4th in the league in rushing yards.  How will Pierce fare?  The Giants rush defense give up plenty of yards, but not points.  The New York defense overall is very good in the red zone, and in limiting 3rd down conversions.  The pass defense is average in yards, and limits passers to an 82 rating lately.  The Giants blitz a lot, but it is the Texans who are the more successful pressure-ers. Opposing passers have looked good lately with a 108 rating in the last 3 Texans' games.
Houston passer Mills has struggled in his second season, with a very average passer rating and too many picks.  Jones, aside from his running abilities, has been effective on a smaller scale, and hangs on to the ball. I think the Giants running game will win out on Sunday.  The Giants don't give up the ball easily, and the Texans are 30th in time of possession.  We'll see a lot of the Giants on the field, while scoring enough points to win and cover.