The set-up: Vancouver has been sharp on both ends of the ice. The Kings have long been viewed as being one of the top defensive clubs in the league, but that definitely is not the case this year as LA comes to the Pacific Northwest as the worst on that end of the ice in the entire NHL. Vancouver has won three of its last four and two were blowout victories. 

The pick: LA won't be rolling over after losing three in a row and getting outscored 15-4 in the process, most recently falling 5-1 to the Hawks. Back on October 9th the Canucks hammered the Kings 8-2 and they're averaging over five goals over their last five games. With the desperate home side pushing the pace as well, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Canucks/Kings.

The set-up: A couple of 3-1 teams collide in this one. So far all three of Utah's games have fallen below the posted number and in three previous pre-season games as well. The Clippers though are the highest scoring team in the league and I think the home side will finally get out and push the pace here. LA is averaging 125 PPG and won't be taking anything for granted here after falling 130-122 at Phoenix, surrendering 75 second half points to the Suns. LA rebounded with a win at home and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last eight off a home no cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, while Utah has seen the total soar over in 48 of its last 78 after playing a road game. I think the Clippers control the tempo.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the over Clippers/Jazz.

The set-up: The Grizzlies ended a two-game losing streak with a big OT win at home over the Nets and I look for this young visiting side to carry that momentum over here. The Lakers lost to the Clippers on opening night, but they've since won back-to-back games over Utah and Charlotte. With upcoming road games vs. an improved Dallas team up next, followed by San Antonio and Chicago, would anyone fault LA for looking past its lowly opponent today? Memphis' young core of Jae Crowder, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Jonas Valanciunas will be able to keep this one competitive once again in my opinion. 

The pick: Yes the Lakers have Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Dwight Howard, but they're still without Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo. Memphis has struggled defensively in the early going, but LA has so far only averaged 105.7 PPG, which ranks 23rd. Additionally note that Memphis is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 120 points or more, while LA is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I think LA does indeed get caught looking past the hungry Grizzlies today, so grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Memphis Grizzlies.

The set-up: Do or die?! Now or never?! Washington has its back against the wall and I'm not going to give up on it quite yet. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side counters with Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Strasburg has earned a win in four of his last five playoff games, allowing only six runs total in that span.

Verlander has been downright terrible in the postseason, losing three of his last four decisions, most recently getting shelled for four runs off seven hits over six innings vs. the Nationals. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nats are 6-0 in their last six playoff road games, while the Astros are only 1-4 in their last five interleague home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Verlander's been terrible, while Strasburg has been superb. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Nationals RUN LINE.

The set-up: The Pens ended a three-game losing slide with a 3-0 win in Dallas and I think they carry that momentum over here and come in focussed on the task at hand. The Flyers on the other hand look primed for a letdown here after they had their three-game win skein snapped by the Isles in their latest outing. Philly goaltender Carter Hart is 2-3-1 with a 3.32 GAA after allowing five goals on 14 shots in that one. 

The pick: Pittsburgh goalie Matt Murray posted a shutout vs. the Stars in his last outing and he's 6-3-0 with a 2.33 GAA so far. Additionally note that Pittsubrgh is 4-1 in its last five following a victory, while Philadelphia is a terrible 1-8 in its last nine on the road. The Pens have lost three of the last four in this series, but I expect that trend to tonight. Lay the reasonable mid sized price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The set-up: Both teams are 2-1 and looking to build. So far the Jazz have seen the total "under" the number in all three of their games, but I expect that trend to end here as they look to get out and match the pace of the home side. The Suns have been incredbily competitive to this point, as they're a perfect 3-0 ATS (I had Phoenix in its outright win over the Clippers on Saturday!) The Suns aren't settling for anything, instead they're pushing the pace and attacking teams aggressively. 

The pick: Utah averages 100 PPG, and it allows 90. Phoenix averages 120 PPG and it concedes 108. If this were in Utah, I'd likely also being playing the "over." These are two young teams and I expect a wide open affair. Finally note that Utah has in fact seen the total go over the number in 16 of its last 26 as a road favorite of six points or less, while the Suns have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five vs. good defensive teams which allow 98 points or less per contest. Look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Jazz/Suns.

The set-up: The last few Monday/Thursday games have been terrible matchups and this one follows suit. With nothing to play for though, I think the Fish simply go through the motions tonight and I look for the Steelers to "control" this one while on offense, instead of trying to run up the score and "run" this downtrodden visiting side off the field. Miami is back to Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for this one. The Steelers beat the Chargers two weeks ago and then they had their bye week. Mason Rudolph is back after suffering a concussion scare for Pittsburgh, but he'll be asked to do nothing more than to manage this game vs. the winless Dolphins, who are now in the hunt for a few top playoff picks. 

The pick: Note as well that Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 off a road loss, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten after covering the spread in two or more straight games. I'm banking on a low-scoring affair on Monday night.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Fish/Steelers.

The set-up: Two teams on the rise collide in this game on Monday night. The Coyotes are 6-3-1 and the Sabres are 9-2-1. Arizona beat the Devils 5-3 on Friday, while the Sabres enter off a 2-0 win over the Wings. Darcy Kuemper gets the call in net for the visitors and he's 4-3-0 with a 1.87 GAA. Bufflao net-minder Carter Hutton is 6-1-0 with a 2.27 GAA thus far. 

The pick: Note that Buffalo has shutout its opponent in two of its last five games. Additionally note that the Coyotes have seen the total go under the number in 17 of their last 28 after playing three straight on the road. I look for these surging goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Coyotes/Sabres.

The set-up: The Packers come in off a big 41-24 win over the Raiders at home, but I think they'll have their hands full with this desperate home side. Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes is a big question mark this weekend and if he does play, one has to wonder how effective the dynamic pivot really will be? Matt Moore is a "clock manager," so expect to see a heavy does of LeSean McCoy and the running game from the home side will on the offensive end. 

The pick: The Packers' strength this year has been on the defensive side of the ball though and Moore is clearly going to be under pressure here as well. Additionally note that GB has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records, while KC has seen the total go under in seven of its last eight after having lost two of its last three games outright. This one has defensive battle written all over it, play the under.

10* play on the UNDER Packers/Chiefs.

The set-up: Damian Lillard has scored at least 30 points in each of his first two games for the Blazers. Hassan Whiteside and CJ MCCollum round out a powerful and veteran line-up. Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Doncic have been great for the Mavericks, but I think the lack of depth off the bench will ultimately prove to be too much for the Mavs today. 

The pick: Additionally note that Portland is 24-12 ATS in its last 36 after scoring 120 points or more in its previous outing, while Dallas is a poor 14-16 ATS in its last 30 as a home favorite of six points or less. I like Whiteside to slow down Porzingis tonight and I look for the deeper bench of Portland to do the rest. Grab the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The set-up: LA has now lost back-to-back games to the Blues and then 5-1 in Minnesota just last night. The Hawks are coming off a 4-1 home loss to the Flyers despite outshooting them 24-23. 

The pick: The Kings are the worst defensive team in the league and they're coming off a loss just last night. The Hawks have been poor offensively, but note that they're 6-2 in their last eight home games following a home loss by three or more goals. The situation and the trends both point to the home side as the correct call (and the price is excellent too in my opinion.) 

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Chicago Blackhawks.

The set-up: This is Oakland's fifth straight game on the road, a trip which has included a trip to London. I admit that the Raiders have been better than I thought they'd be this year, but I think they're going to suffer a predictable letdown here vs. this focused home side, which comes in off a 30-23 loss to the Colts. The Raiders got crushed 41-24 at Green Bay last weekend and now they face a similar type offense in DeShaun Watson and the Texans. 

The pick: Oakland allowed five TD's to Aaron Rodgers last weekend and they average 21 PPG, while conceding 27.5. The Texans on the other hand average 26 PPG, while allowing 23. Oakland is also a poor 5-13 ATS in its last 18 on the road (including 1-2 ATS this year), while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two-game road trip. I like Watson to domiante this porous Raiders' secondary. Lay the points.

10* play on the Houston Texans.

The set-up: Phoenix held a lead in Denver for most of the night last night, but it wasn't to be in its eventual 108-107 OT loss. Playing the second game of a back-to-back is never easy, but let's get real. We're still in the first week of the season and these are professional athletes. I'll argue that playing again so quickly is actually a benefit for the clearly "gelling" Suns, who blew out the Kings in their opener. The Clippers are off to a 2-0 start and they definitely appear to be the team to beat in the NBA this season. 

The pick: The Clippers took out the Lakers and then the Warriors in Golden State, but with games against the Suns tonight and then the Hornets at home on Monday, would anyone fault LA for taking the foot off the gas here tonight? I like the home side to shake off last night's loss and to defend its own floor. That said, grab the generous points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Phoenix Suns.

The set-up: Cal is 4-3 and desperate for a couple more victories. Utah is 6-1 and already bowl eligible. Utah though looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after getting its sixth win of the year in a 21-3 win over Arizona State. 

The pick: Cal has lost three in a row, but it's looked better of late. The Bears only concede 18 PPG, so they have the defense to hang with the home side today. Additionally note that Cal is 10-4 ATS in its last four and 5-1 ATS in its last six after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games, while the Utes are 0-2 ATS in their last two after allowing six points or less in their last outing. I'm grabbing the points. 

10* play on California 

The set-up: Both teams are off to poor starts and each comes in off a loss. The Wild lost 4-0 to Nashville and LA fell 5-2 to St. Louis. Minnesota is only averaging 2.10 GPG, but the Kings are allowing 3.90 GPG. The Kings' goaltending has been terrible, so the advantage goes to Minnesota's Alex Stalock, who has a 2.22 GAA. 

The pick: Note as well that Minnesota is a sharp 6-1 in its last seven at home in this series, while the Kings are a poor 1-5 in their last six as underdogs in the +110 to +150 range. All things considered, I think this is a great price on the home side.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Minnesota Wild.

The set-up: Donovan Mitchell led the way in Utah's season opening win over the Thunder. LeBron James and the Lakers though will be out to push the pace here as they try to bounce back from a season opening loss to the Clippers. Now that the Clippers destroyed the Warriors in their own building on Thursday night, the Lakers setback to the Clip Show doesn't look so bad really. Regardless, AD and The King will absolutely be out to dictate the pace of this one and with the visiting side needint to keep pace, I do indeed expec this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

The pick: And the numbers/trends/stats back us up on this one, as Utah has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 off a victory vs. a division rival, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of its last 15 off a loss vs. a division rival. All signs do indeed point to the over as the savvy call here.

10* play on the OVER Utah/Lakers.

The set-up: I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point. Washington comes in off a 4-3 loss in Edmonton just last night and I have a hard time seeing it mustering up much energy here vs. the defensive minded home side. Vancouver just finished off a 3-1 road trip as it continues to get excellent play on both ends of the ice, especially on the defensive side (having allowed just 19 goals so far this season, which is tied for No. 1 in the league!)

The pick: Washington starts backup Samsonov, who is 3-1 with a 1.84 GAA, while the Canucks' Jacob Markstrom is 4-2 with a 2.16 GAA. I expect Washington to come in with "heavy legs" and I look for Vancouver's strong defensive play to continue here. Look for these two goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Vancouver Canucks UNDER.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. USC is just 4-3 and still in search of eligibility. Time is running out for 3-4 Colorado as well though. The Buffs enter off a 41-10 loss to Washington State, their third straight conference set back. USC is off a 41-14 victory over Arizona at home. USC is in a tie now with Utah for the lead, but last week's victory came at a cost, as the Trojans come to Colorado suffering a number of injuries to key players: they lost starting RB Vavae Malepeai for the season. Junior RB Stephen Carr also hurt his hamstring against the Wildcats and isn't expected to play. Backup RB Markese Stepp is also out with an ankle injury. Defensive linemen Christian Rector and Drake Jackson are also slated as questionable, as are CB's  Olijah Griffin and Greg Johnson.

The pick: Colorado needs QB Steven Montez to show and produce tonight vs. this wounded Trojans' defense. Montez's ground game though has been decent of late, with Alex Fontenot running for over 70 yards in each of the last four games. I'll point out as well that USC is still only 9-15 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite, while Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 28 points or more to conference rivals. The situation favors the home side here, so grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Colorado.

The set-up: The Bulls lost 126-125 in Charoltte on opening night, but I think this fast-paced visiting side will have more than enough in the tank to take out the lowly home side here. Lauri Markkanen was a bright spot in a losing cause for Chicago with 35 points and 17 boards and its defense catches a break here facing Memphis, which fell 120-101 in Miami in its opener. 

The pick: Ja Morant was the No. 2 pick in the draft last year for Memphis and he finished with 14 points and four assists. But the Grizz are still a poor 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous outing. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion.

10* play on the Chicago Bulls.

The set-up: The Clippers came out and dominated the Lakers 112-102 on Opening night and now they have another difficult task facing a new look Warriors team which finished runner up to the Raptors last season. Kawhi Leonard looked great for the Clippers, going for 30 points and six boards, while Lou Williams added 21 points off the bench. The Clippers are still incredibly deep and talented without Paul George in the line-up and there's no reason not to think this unit won't be able to keep pace with the up-tempo home side.  

The pick: While Klay Thompson is out for the season with injury, the Warriors still have plenty of all star talent, including Steph Curry, who has now become the No. 1 go to guy on this team with Kevin Durant gone. D'Angelo Russell had a break out campaign for the Nets last year and he could truly be an X-Factor for this team. Whatever the case, I think the home side is going to be pushing the pace from start to finish. Also note that LA has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten off a home win vs. a division rival, while GS has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 23 of its last 33 vs. division opponents. I'm expecting a shootout.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Clippers/Warriors.

The set-up: SMU is already bowl eligible at 7-0, but Houston has some work to do at 3-4. An upset win at home over the surging Mustangs would certainly help get the ship directed in the correct direction. SMU comes in off a 45-21 home win over Temple. Shane Buechele has been superb so far for SMU, but I think he's going to have his hands full here vs. this motivated and hungry home side, which enters off a 24-17 win over UConn. Cougars' QB Logan Holgorsen and 123 yards and a TD. SMU allows 251 yards passing per game, so Holgorsen will have his opportunities. 

The pick: Note that SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival, while Houston is is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four off a road win against a conference rival. I think the home side fights tooth and nail in this one and keeps it close as the game comes down the stretch. I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston.

The set-up: The Sabres are 8-2 and the Rangers are 2-5. Most recently Buffalo came from behind to knock off the Sharks by a score of 4-3. Clearly the Rangers won't be lacking for motivation here after their slow start and their 3-2 defeat to the Coyotes in their previous outing. BUffalo has scored 17 goals over its last five games and I think that the home side will definitely have its hands full with this new look Sabres team. Carter Hutton has been amazing for Buffalo early, but the Rangers enter having lost six straight and they're going to be risking life and limb here to get off the schneid. 

The pick: Easier said than done for the Rangers though with goaltender Henrik Lundqvist in net, who is just 1-3 with a 3.57 GAA. With Buffalo averaging nearly four goals per game and with the Rangers desperate for a win, I think the stage is indeed set for an offensive affair.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Sabres/Rangers.

The set-up: Both teams enter at 5-3, but I think the Coyotes take a step back on Long Island, after getting the better of the Rangers in The Big Apple. Arizona goalie Darcy Kuemper is 4-2-0 with a 1.68 GAA this year, but note that he's a sub-par 1-3 with 3.13 GAA lifetime vs. the Isles. So far Arizona is averaging 3.00 GPG and conceding only 1.88. 

The pick: New York netminder Thomas Greiss is 3-1 with a 2.20 GAA this season and he's 3-3-1 with a 2.11 GAA lifetime vs. the 'Yotes. So far the Isles are averaging and allowing 2.50 GPG this year. But winning on the road is difficult in the NHL and I think Arizona is definitely primed for a letdown here vs. this surging home side. The Isles have looked better offensively after a very poor start, so their early numbers on that end of the ice are skewed. The home side has won eight of the last nine in this series, so expect that strong trend to continue here.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Islanders.

The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 1. With their backs against the wall, I believe that Justin Verlander and the home side come out and deliver an epic response on Game 2. Honestly, it wouldn't be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these staters to win this game, as Stephen Strasburg has been a "rock" for the Nats all season and during the playoffs. This play is based upon the "situation" and some strong ATS trends. The only mission of a visiting team in the start of a playoff series is to earn a "split" over the first two games. Sure Washington would LOVE to win both games, but with that crucial mission indeed accomplished, I think the visitors get caught taking the mental foot off the gas. For Houston though, this is essentially "do or die." 

The pick: Note that Washington is just 3-7 in its last ten road games following a victory by one run or more, while Houston is 7-4 in its last 11 home games after allowing five or more runs in its previous contest. I expect Houston to win, and win big!

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Astros on the RUN-LINE.

The set-up: The Grizzlies have a lot of new faces, which they hope will give a boost to a team which finished 33-49 last year. Overall Memphis averaged 103.5 PPG and it allowed 105.7. The Heat were a sub-par 39-43 a year ago, averaging 105.7 PPG and allowing 106. 

The pick: I handicap the first week of all sports differently than I do the rest of the regular season and I believe this one sets up great situationally, while also backed by strong ATS O/U trends. Memphis and Miami both have plenty of new faces and each team has something to prove after a poor performance last year. With pushing the pace, I expect this total to soar over sooner than later. Also note that Memphis has seen the total go OVER in 35 of its last 55 non-conference games, while Miami has seen the total soar OVER in 14 of its last 19 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, expect a higher-scoring game.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the over Grizzlies/Heat.

The set-up: The Pistons were 41-41 last year and they were the eighth seed in the East, while Indiana was 48-34 and ended up as the fourth seed last year. The Pistons enter the year on full health (other than Griffin) and welcome back all of their core players from last year. Detroit also signed Derrick Rose and Markieff Morris amonth others. 

The pick: The Pacers are awaiting for their super star Victor Oladipo to return from injury and I think they'll have a hard time adjusting on opening night. Indiana signed Malcom Brogdon to run the point, but I think he'll have his hands full as well tonight with Rose and company. I think Detroit has everything in place to improve this year and even with Oladipo in the line-up, I believe that the Pacers have the potential to take a big step back. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Detroit Pistons.

The set-up: Until I get a firm look at each team over the first week, I tend to base my picks on different criteria to open a season. I believe this is a great situational play on the Lakers. Kawhi Leonard is an amazing player, which was the final piece on a great team in Toronto. Whether or not that same magic will work for the Clippers is yet to be seen and he'll be without his best option in Paul George, who comes into the season on the injured list. 

The pick: Anthony Davis definitely has something to prove to everyone. So too does LeBron James. James in particular will be out to push the pace from start to finish as he tries to make everyone forget about his China "gaff" that he committed recently. What better way to start that process than to destroy the Clippers in their "shared" building? From a situational stand point, this is as good as it gets in my opinion. Lay the points.

10* BEST OF BEST on the LA Lakers.

The set-up: Two unbelievable pitchers face a couple of hard-hitting line-ups. Both Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole have incredible seasonal numbers, in the playoffs and vs. their respective opponents. It wouldn't be difficult to write a play on the "under" based entirely around their stats/numbers. But I think these two starters can still "shine" in this contest, and this total can still eclipse this very low-number. 

The pick: Based primarily around the fact that Washington has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten when the total in the contest is set at 7 or lower, while Houston has seen the total soar over in 11 of its last 17 after allowing four runs or less in four straight games. With time to re-focus, I believe it'll be these hard-hitting line-ups which become the main story-lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Nationals/Astros.

The set-up: Big changes for both teams to enter the season. The Pelicans were getting great play from rookie phenom Zion Williamson, but he's now injured and won't be playing for the first month or so. Of course Toronto is the defending champion and while many of the same pieces remain, many have left as well, including leader Kawhi Leonard. Considering the early adversity that each will have to go through, I think this number is much too hight. Offensive chemistry doesn't happen instantly and in my opinion, I think each side comes out tenative to open the 2019/20 campaign. 

The pick: New Orleans has also seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 non-conference games, while Toronto has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven when the total is greater than or equal to 230 points. This number is a tad high, play the under.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Pels/Raps.

The set-up: Vancouver is 5-3 and Detroit is 3-5. Vancouver has already beaten the Wings 5-1 at home, but now Detroit will look to exact some revenge in its own building vs. a now road weary and contented Canucks team. Vancouver is getting great defensive play and goaltending, both from Jacob Markstrom and Thatcher Demko, but after beating the Rangers in New York and with this being the final contest on a long-trip, I believe this does indeed set up as a "letdown/look-ahead" spot for the over-achieving visitors. 

The pick: Detroit comes in having lost four straight, making this an early "do or die" game for the home side. The Wings' netminders have hit or miss, but note that the Canucks are just 28-42 (-12.5 units) in their last 70 vs. clubs with losing records, while Detroit is 6-2 in its last eight after playing three straight on the road. In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." 

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Detroit Red Wings.

The set-up: This is the second game of a home and home set between these clubs, after San Jose fell 4-3 at home to the Sabres on Saturday. Martin Jones will be looking to bounce back in net for San Jose, he's 4-2-2 with a 2.36 GAA lifetime vs. the Sabres. Overall the Sharks are scoring 2.63 GPG and allowing 3.50. 

The pick: The Sabres are averaging 3.67 GPG and allowing only 2.33. Goaltender Carter Hutton is 5-0-0 with a 1.40 GAA this year for Buffalo. Note that the Sharks have already seen the total go under the number in three of four this year after allowing four or more goals, while Buffalo has seen the total go under in 21 of its last 36 when playing with two days of rest. This number is high considering the circumstances and numbers/trends listed above.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Sharks/Sabres.

The set-up: To say these are two hungry and desperate teams would be an understatement. The Sens are 1-5-0-1 and the Stars are 2-7-0-1. Dallas finally scored the 4-1 at Philadelphia and with two whole nights off after this before a game vs. the Ducks at ome, there's no reason not to think that the home side can't build off that performance with another big effort here vs. the hapless Sens. 

The pick: Ottawa has been terrible, most recently getting smashed 5-2 by the Coyotes. The road ahead doesn't get any easier for the Senators, but they catch a break here facing the porous Stars' defense. While both teams have struggled to find the back of the net this year, each has been equally as horrible on the defensive end of the ice. Look for these two desperate teams to open up the pace of the play and expect this total to soar over sooner, rather than later!

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Sens/Stars.

The set-up: New England is 6-0 and New York is 1-4. The Patriots pulled away for a 35-14 home win over the Giants, while the Jets enter off their first victory of the year in a 24-22 win over the Cowboys. I expect a more conservative style of play from the Pats in this contest though as they look to avoid the upset and to "look past" these suddenly confident Jets. New York only allows 358 total yards of offense, with 262.2 through the air and a paltry 95.8 on the ground. 

The pick: The strengh of the Jets is indeed on the defensive side of the ball and while the Patriots have an unreal offense, it is in fact their defense which is also "stealing the show" in New England this year. So far the Pats allow only 234.7 YPG this season, which includes an average of 161 through the air and only 73.7 on the ground. Note that New England has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 20 on the road and in 14 of its last 19 as a road favorite, while the Jets have seen the total dip under the number in nine of 13 as a home underdog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. Look for this one to stay under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Patriots/Jets.

The set-up: I think the 7-1 Avs are going to have a letdown here. St. Louis on the other hand has lost four straight and it'll be risking life and limb here to secure a victory today. The Avs come off a 6-2 beatdown of the Lightning and I think they're going to suffer a classic letdown here. Philipp Grubauer has been on fie for the Avs, but note that he's 0-1-2 with a 3.24 GAA vs. the Blues lifetime. 

The pick: The Blues are clearly suffering a Stanley Cup hangover, as teams are relentless on the defending champs. Most recently St Louis fell 5-2 to the Habs. Note though that the Avs are still just 36-40 (-3.4 units) in their last 76 after scoring four or more goals in their previous contest, while the Blues are 30-20 in their last 50 after a loss by two goals or more in their previous outing. I like the depserate home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the St. Louis Blues.

The set-up: Baltimore is ranked 17th on the defensive side of the ball. The Ravens though have a big question mark in the WR position this week with Marquise "Hollywood" Brown listed as questionable. The Seahawks are getting unreal play from QB Russell Wilson, who has 16 TD's so far and no INT's. The Hawks defense isn't what it used to be, but so far it's been better than average by posting 12 takeaways YTD. 

The pick: Note that Baltimore has interestingly seen the total dip under the number in 11 of its last 15 after having won two out of its last three games SU, while Seattle has seen the total go below the posted number in 11 of its last 17 as a favorite. This number is high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Ravens/Hawks.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. Each of these teams had huge expectations coming in, but each has struggled mightily to open the 2019/20 campaign. The Chargers are off a 24-17 home loss to the Steelers, while the Titans fell 16-0 in Denver. While Philip Rivers had 320 yards and two TD's last week for the Bolts, he also had two INT's. And now he faces the leagues second best pass defenses which concedes just 217 passing yards per game. Also note that Rivers has been sacked 12 times already this year. 

The pick: Marcus Mariota is out and Ryan Tannehill is in for the Titans this week. Tannehill makes his first start for his new team and I expect the pivot to make the most of this opportunity. LA though is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with losing records, while Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a road loss. I think the Titans superior defense is the difference here and I like Tannehill to make the most of this opportunity. Lay the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tennessee Titans.

The set-up: The Canucks fell 2-0 in New Jersey and I think they'll now struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back vs. a Rangers team which enters off a 5-2 loss to the Devils on Thursday. Alexsandar Georgievj has the advantage in net over Canucks' netminder Jacob Markstrom (2-2-0, 2.23 GAA). Georgievj (1-1-0, 2.56) most recently allowed four goals vs. the Devils, but he's hungry to be the No. 1 goaltender in the Big Apple. 

The pick: The Rangers have lost three in a row and they're rested. Vancouver had been on a big run, but it finally had a letdown last night and now it has to try and muster up the energy for an early morning contest less than 24 hours later. This one sets up beautifully for the home side and the price is right too. 

10* BODY-CHECK on the New York Rangers

The set-up: This game is going to be watched in more than 200 countries world-wide. Almost 1 billion people will be watching this contest. United though is dealing with injury issues and the last time these team's played Liverpool won decisively 3-1 at Anfield last December. Ole Gunnar Solskjær is expected to play for a draw here, but I don't see Liverpool settling. 

The pick: Extra motivation here for Liverpool? Head coach Jurgen Klopp has never won at Old Trafford in any of his previous four visits as manager. Also note that Man U is hte only club in which Mohamed Salah has failed to score against. I look for the visitors to move to 18 straight EPL victories. Lay the price.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Liverpool

The set-up: A couple of 4-2 teams from the Mountain West collide late on Saturday night and when the smoke finally clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to sneak under the posted number. These are two effecient, but different offenses. The Falcons run the ball and the Warriors throw it. Air Force enters off a 43-24 win over Fresno State, while Hawaii enters off a beatdown loss to Boise State. While each played to a higher-scoring affair in their last outing, I expect more of a defensive battle here. 

The pick: The Falcons will be out to control while on offense and I believe that's going to help in pushing this total under the number. Additionally note that Air Force has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring 42 points or more in its previous contest, while Hawaii has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a tad high.

10* play on the UNDER AF/Hawaii.

The set-up: Flordia had three whole nights off and then fell to Colorado 5-4 last night. The Panthers had a 3-1 lead at one point and now I think they falter again here vs. the rested Predators. Nashville has had a night off after a 5-2 loss at Arizona, which concluded a 1-2 road trip. This is the opener of three straight at home vs. difficult teams and I believe the Predators come in focussed on the task at hand (Ducks and Wild up next, followed by a road game at Tampa Bay.) 

The pick: Florida is a poor 28-32 (-5.4 units) in its last 60 non-conference games, while Nashville is 26-15 (+5.9 units) after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest. A great situational play and a great price considering the circumstances. Lay it.

10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Nashville Predators.

The set-up: Did the Red Wings get caught "looking ahead" to this game after their 5-1 loss in Calgary just last night? Probably. But that still doesn't make tonight's task any easier as the now weary Wings head to Edmonton to play the second game of the back to back vs. a red hot Oilers team. The Wings are allowing 3.75 GPG on the road, while only netting an average of 2.75. Wings' netminder Jonathan Bernier has been a bright spot in the early going with a 2-1, 3.33 GAA record, but I think he'll struggle in this difficult venue. 

The pick: The Oilers average the second highest amount of goals this year (4.00) and they concede the 11th lowest (2.71.) Edmonton goalie Mike Smith is 3-1 with a 2.50 GAA thus far. Edmonton is also 4-0 in its last four vs. the Eastern Conference, while Detroit is just 26-38 in non-conference games the last two years. I'm laying the 1.5 goals.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Edmonton Oilers PUCK-LINE.

The set-up: Ohio State is 6-0 and Northwestern is just 1-4. Clearly I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do feel that the conditions are right for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Ohio State ranks in the top in the country in almost every statistical category on both sides of the ball. Buckeyes' QB Justin Fields has 18 passing TD's and eight rushing. But with 6-0 Wisconsin at home next weekend, would anyone fault the visitors in looking past their lowly opponent in some small way today? 

The pick: Northwestern enters off three straight tough losses, but it also enters rested out of its bye. The Wildcats lost 31-10 to MSU, 24-15 to Wisconsin and 13-10 to Nebraska. Whether it's Aiden Smith or Hunter Johnson under center, I'm basing today's pick more on the situation than anything else. I will however note that NW is 4-1 ATS in its last five following its bye-week, while OSU is only 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with losing records. 

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Northwestern.

The set-up: Patrick Mahomes is the same player, but this isn't the same Chiefs team which we saw last year. The defense was always a weak point and it remains a weak point now as well. But the offense isn't "clicking" like it once was and penalties and poor special teams play have led to back-to-back losses for KC. After starting 0-4, the Broncos have now won two in a row. The revenge angle comes into play here for the home side as well, as it's lost seven straight in this series (it's interesting to note though that Broncos' new QB Joe Flacco is 2-0 vs. the Chiefs for his career.) 

The pick: KC allows over 400 yards per game on defense, which is 29th in the league overall. Also note that Mahomes is in fact nursing a sprained ankle and he's playing without the services of LT Eric Fisher. The KC run game is also non-existent, averaging only 87 YPG. Denver's defense has been a strength of late and I think the unit is going to have another big night tonight. Finally note that the Broncos are interestingly 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday night games, while KC is only 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: UL Lafayette's four game win streak was snapped in last week's 17-7 loss to App State. The Rajun Cajuns still average 38.2 PPG though and their rushing attack is ranked sixth with an average of 282.2 YPG. Arkansas State is averaging a whopping 40 PPG in the early going, but the Red Wolves defense has been atrocious. Arkansas State enters off a loss as well to Georgia State. 

The pick: UL Lafayette QB Levi Lewis is going to have a big day in my estimation and he comes in sporting a strong 9:2 TD:INT. The Red Wolves rank 117th in the nation against the run, so Cajuns' RB Trey Regas also looks primed for a huge night. Red Wolves' QB Layne Hatcher has four TD's and two INT's in each of his last two games, but his defense ranks second to last in D1. Finally onte that Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, while UL Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU loss. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Lafayette.

The setup: The Rangers are 2-1 and the Devils are 0-6. Clearly the home side has issues, but I believe New Jersey risks life and limb to try and get off the schneid tonight. Alexandar Georgiev is expected to be between the pipes for the Rangres, while Cory Schneider will get the nod for New Jersey. New York has been off since a 4-1 home loss to Edmonton on Saturday and I think that rest is going to lead to rust here vs. this determined/desperate home side. 

The pick: Note that New York has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going just 5-10 (-2.8 units) when playing with three or more days rest. I don't think that the Devils are as terrible as their win/loss record would indicate. I'm banking on the more desperate team delivering the goods.

10* TOP-SHELF DESTROYER on the New Jersey Devils.

The set-up: Carolina is 6-1-0 this year after its 2-0 win in LA just last night. The Hurricanes face a difficult task though in my opinion vs. the well rested Sharks team that hasn't played since a 3-1 win over the Flames at home on Sunday. The Hurricanes also get caught looking ahead to two more tough road contests at Anaheim and Columbus up next. 

The pick: As mentioned off the top the Sharks have had a couple nights off and then they enjoy two more nights off after this one before a home game vs. the Sabres. This one sets up beautifully for the rested home side, which started the year injured and without a couple of key players (Evander Kane), but who have since returned. This is the very definition of "great line value" in my opinion. 

10* play on the San Jose Sharks.

The set-up: South Alabama is 1-5 and Troy is slightly better at 2-3. Both teams enter off their respective bye weeks. A closer look at South Alabama's schedule though reveals a very difficult one in the early going (Nebraska, Memphis). Jaguars' second year coach Steve Campbell has his team moving in the right direction despite what the win/loss record says. Note that South Alabama held Nebraska to just 2.2 yards per carry. QB Cephus Johnson averaged 12.9 yards per throw and had two TD's and no INT's in his last game. Additionally note that South Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference contests. 

The pick: Troy senior QB Kaleb Barker is under center now after starter Brandon Silvers left before the season started, and in his last start Barker had only 92 yards passing on 26 attempts with two INT's. The Trojans rank 124th out of 130 FBS teams in passing yards allower per attempt at 10.22. Note as well that Troy is a terrible 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. In my opinion, this one has "nail-biter" written all over it. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on South Alabama.

The set-up: The Wings are off to a successful 3-2 start, but they're off a terrible 5-2 loss at home to the Leafs. The Wings start their Western swing in Vancouver and they'll be looking to get the trip started off quickly. Red Wings goaltender Jimmy Howard had his hands full with the Leafs high-powered attack, but now he faces the Canucks' anemic offense. 

The pick: Vancouver is now 2-2 after holding on for a 3-2 shootout win over the Flyers in its last outing. So far Vancouver netminder Jacob Markstrom has shone in the early going, as he comes in with a solid .926 save percentage and 2.23 GAA. I think these two non-conference teams which struggle to score at times play to a low-scoring under on Tuesday night. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Wings/Nucks.

The set-up: I had the Cards in Game 3. Clearly I'm surprised at the lack of production from St. Louis right now. Washington is on the verge of moving onto the World Series, but I think the feisty visiting side avoids the sweep and notches at least one victory in this series. At the very least, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Daniel Hudson goes for the visitors, while Patrick Corbin goes for the home side. 

The pitchers: Hudson (16-7, 3.55 ERA) looked sharp in his only start in the post-season, holding the Braves to one run over five innings.

Corbin (14-7, 3.25) took back-to-back losses vs. the Dodgers in the NLDS, before having a pair of short no-decisions.

The pick: Now or never. Do or die. Corbin has been volatile and Hudson has been solid. I'm banking on the visitors on keeping this one alive for one more game.

10* U OF U (B OF B) on the Cardinals RUN LINE.

The set-up: The Lightning are 2-2-1 this season, while the Habs are 2-1-2. Andre Vasilevskiy is the starter in net for TB, while Carey Price gets the nod for the home side. The Bolts have beaten up on the Eastern Conference at a prodigious rate over the last three years, but now teams can smell the blood in the water. The Lightning come to town looking very beatable, most recently falling 4-2 on the road in Ottawa, its third setback in their  last four games. 

The pick: Montreal broke a two-game slide with a resounding 6-3 win over the defending champion Blues. The Habs are well rested and they have the Wild coming to town on Thursday night. Montreal has struggled with poor starts in each of the past two seasons, but it comes in healthy to this one and I expect it to pour it on here as it looks to kick this floundering Lighting team while its down. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Montreal Canadiens. 

The set-up: Houston lost 7-0 in Game 1, before then rebounding with a 3-2 extra innings effort in Game 2. With the shift in venue, I'm finally expecting a higher-scoring game here. The Astros were 47-26 on the road this year, but they lost both road games to the Rays. Clearly they'll be out to end that trend. Gerrit Cole gets the nod for the visitors, while Louis Severino toes the slab for the home side. 

The pitchers: Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) has been exceptional this season and so far in the playoffs, but I think he finally takes a step back here. Note that he's 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts vs. the Yanks. 

Severino (1-1, 1.50) is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA in seven career postseason starts. 

The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go "over" in 35 of its last 60 after two or more consecutive home games, while New York has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 21 after allowing three runs or less in four straight games. The Yanks have to be thrilled with the split they earned over the first two games and now they're in the drivers seat. I think this one creeps over this tiny number once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Astros/Yankees.

The set-up: Detroit is 2-1-1 and Green Bay is 4-1. The Lions have looked decent on both sides of the ball, with wins over the Chargers and Eagles and nearly getting by the Chiefs last time out. Green Bay smoked the Cowboys in Dallas last weekend, but after the Cowboys lost to the Jets yesterday, I'm taking that victory with a proverbial "grain of salt." Detroit also comes in focussed and healthy after its bye week. 

The pick: The Lions defense has been impressive, shutting down Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, while also holding Patrick Mahomes without a TD. Green Bay has been terrific defensively as well, so I'll call that department a "wash." I think that Lions' veteran QB Matt Stafford has enough tricks up his sleeve to put the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and company. In a game which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: These are two defensive minded clubs and I'm expecting a very low-scoring defensive battle. St. Louis is 3-2 and New York is 2-3. St. Louis will be particularly focussed here after getting killed 6-3 in Montreal in their latest outing. The Isles most recently beat the Panthers 3-2. 

The pick: Despite the slip-up vs. Montreal, Jordan Binnington is still 2-1-1 with a 2.97 GAA. Semyon Varlamov is 1-2 with a 3.15 GAA this season and he comes off his first victory of the year, stopping 35 of 37 shots. I think the early start is a detriment to the offensive players and I look for these two World Class goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad high.

10* play on the under Blues/Islanders.

The set-up: Calgary was detroyed 6-2 in Vegas just last night and I think it'll have its hands full with this rested and focussed home side. The Sharks are just 1-4, but they finally punched their first win of the season in a victory over the Hawks in their last matchup. 

The pick: San Jose is now back home and it's rested and ready to make a statement. Note that key players Evander Kane and Patrick Marleau weren't even playing during its 0-3 start to the season. But they're now both back on the ice tonight. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for San Jose as it looks to bounce back from its slow start and take advantage of this road weary Flames side. All things considered, I call this the very definition of great line value.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on the San Jose Sharks.

The set-up: The Steelers are 1-4 and the Chargers are 2-3. This is a "must win" game for both teams. But I like Philip Rivers and company on their own soil here. Note that this is a revenge game as well for the home side after it fell 33-30 in Pittsburgh last season. Both teams enter off losses. Pittsburgh' backup QB Mason Rudolph suffered a concussion last weekend and he's listed as doubtful here. While the Pittsburgh defense picked off Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson three times last week, I don't expect that kind of sloppy play from Rivers at home and after last weekend's poor 20-13 loss at home. 

The pick: The Chargers have actually been quite stingy defensively, allowing only 334.8 total yards of offense per game. Pittsburgh allows 229.8 passing yards per game, but now they'll have to deal with LA RB Melvin Gordon, who has finally returned from his holdout. Too many question marks surrounding Pittsburgh here, while the conditions are unquestionably correct for a big bounce back for LA in my opinion. Lay the points with confidence.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Chargers.

The set-up: Tennessee is 2-3 and Denver is 1-4. Most likely neither team will see the playoffs. That said, each still has a shot if they can win this game today. This is an important game for both sub-.500 teams and as such, I look for more of a wide open affair. Last week the Titans lost 14-7 to the stingy BIlls. The Broncos saved their season (mathematically) with a 20-13 road win over the Chargers this past Sunday and I expect them to build off that performance with their best effort at home so far. 

The pick: Both teams are ranked in the lower half on the offensive side of the ball, but I think that Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariota push the pace of this one on the road, similar to their Week 1 destruction of the Cleveland Browns. Joe Flacco and Phillip Linday come off their best performance for the Broncos and there's no reason not to think that they won't be given the green light here as well. Note that Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road dog of 7 points or less, while Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. The situation points to this total flying over this low number sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Titans/Broncos.

The set-up: Both teams are 4-1, thanks in large part to suffocating defensive play. Wyoming has won three of the last four in this series. Last week SDSU picked up a big road win over Colorado State and there's no reason not to think that the Aztecs can't carry that momentum over here as well. SDSU also won't be taking anything for granted here after losing three of its last four in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Wyoming averages 31 PPG and it'll be playing to its strengths in this one. And that means a steady dose of airing the ball out whenver possible. SDSU will also be taking advantage of the fact that the Cowboys are terrible against the pass, ranked 127th in the country by allowing 329 yards through the air on average. The Aztecs' offense finally comes alive at home vs. this porous Wyoming secondary in my opinion. I also expect the visitors to push the pace from start to finish. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of the night, look for this total to sneak over this extremely low number. 

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Wyoming/SDSU.

The set-up: It's Masahiro Tanaka vs. Zack Greinke in the opener of the ALCS and I like the home side to deliver the goods in this one. 

The pitchers: Tanaka was 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA in the regular season. While he's 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA over his last three outings, note that he's 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Astros, including 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in four career matchups at Minute Maid Park.

Greinke was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA in the regular season. He's 2-1 with a 5.29 ERA over his last three starts. He's 4-4 with a 5.05 ERA in 15 career appearances vs. the Yanks. Note that Greinke is 8-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 13 career starts at home.

The verdict: It's interesting to note that the Astros are 42-13 in their last 55 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game, while the Yanks are only 1-5 in their last six road games vs. a right-handed starter. I give Greinke the nod on the bump this evening and in my opinion, that's the difference in Game 1. All things considered, I feel that this is the very definition of "great line value." 

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Houston Astros.

The set-up: I like 4-2 Nebraska to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire with the 5-0 Golden Gophers. This is a big opportunity for the Huskers, who have two by weeks, bookended around two games vs. bottom feeders Purdue and Indiana. Nebraska has plenty of talent in RB Wan'Dale Robinson and QB Adrian Martinez. Note that Martinez leads the team in passing and rushing. 

The pick: Nebraska hammered Minnesota last year and I think the stage is set for an upset here as well. I think the Gophers 5-0 start is due to a weak schedule. Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan has 13 TD's and three INT's, but both RB Mohamed Ibrahim and Cam Wiley are listed as questionable. Note as well that Minnesota is a poor 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 following an ATS victory, while the Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams with a winning SU home record. I like Martinez to keep his team in this game. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CORNER on Nebraska

The set-up: The Leafs are 2-2-1 and they'll be looking for a much better defensive performance here in my estimation after getting embarrassed 7-3 at home by Tampa Bay most recently. Previous to that the Leafs lost 6-5 in a shootout to the Habs and 3-2 to the Blues. Toronto goaltender Frederick Anderson is now 2-2-0 with a 3.75 GAA. Anderson has to be feeling confident here though as he's 7-1 with a 2.60 GAA lifetime vs. Detroit. 

The pick: Detroit won't be rolling over though. The Red Wings enter at 3-1, most recently taking down the Ducks 3-1. Netminder  Jonathan Bernier (2-0-0 on the year with a 2.50 GAA and a .912 save percentage) made 33 saves. There's been plenty of scoring for these two teams in the early going, but I believe the stage is now set for more of a defensive affair. I'm on the under.

10* TOTAL EXPRESS on the UNDER Leafs/Wings.

The set-up: Oregon is 4-1 and Colorado is 3-2. This is a big mid-season game for both Pac 12 Schools and because of that, I'm expecting more of a wide-open shootout. Colorado lost to Arizona last weekend, but it has a come from behind win over Nebraska and an upset road victory over Arizona State so far. The Ducks have looked great despite a collapse vs. Auburn in their opener, relling off four straight victories. This game features two of the best QB's in the conference and I believe they'll be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

The pick: The Buffs' Steven Montez is completing 67 percent of his passes this year and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Montez will be given the green light early and often here as Colorado's secondary is terrible. And that's good news for Oregon' QB Justin Herbert, as the Buffs are allowing 9.39 yards per attempt. The visitors have no choice but to try and keep pace. I think from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it.

10* play on the OVER Colorado/Oregon.

The set-up: St. Louis posted a 5-2 record vs. the Nats this year. But I think that Washington's Anibal Sanchez is the correct all in this matchup. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas. 

The pitchers: Sanchez held the hard-hitting Dodgers to one run over five innings in his team's Game 3 win in the NLDS. Note that over 48.1 innings of playoff work Sanchez has a 2.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. 

Mikolas conceded just one run over five innings to the Braves in his Game 1 start. Note that he has a 2-2 record and a 4.95 ERA in 26 career innings vs. the Nationals.

The pick: The Nats were 2-1 at Chavez Ravine and I think they continue their success on the road to open this series as well. Addtionally note that St. Louis is a poor 1-5 in its last six vs. right-handed starters, while Washington is a sharp 8-1 in its last nine vs. right-handed starters. I like Sanchez to continue his stellar play and for the surging visitors to pull off the slight upset in Game 1.

10* BONANZA on the Nationals.

The set-up: I think rest leads to rust for 4-1 Virginia, which had its bye week last weekend after its loss to Notre Dame. Miami Florida comes in off a 42-35 shootout loss to Virginia Tech. Note as well that this is a big time revnege game for the Hurricanes after the Hoos beat Miami 16-13 in Charlottesville. Virginia' QB Bryce Perkins was sacked eight times by the Irish and I believe the pivot will have his hands full again here as well. 

The pick: This has essentially turned into a "must win" game for 2-3 Miami, which his 0-3 vs. Power 5 programs. Yes Miami spotted VT a 28-0 lead, but after that the Hurricanes completely outplayed the Hokies in last week's setback. Despite giving up 42 points to Tech (from five turnovers from the offense), the Hurricanes are STILL only allowing 21.2 PPG. Note as well that Virginia is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while Miami Florida is 3-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. I think the hungrier/desperate revenge-minded home-side delivers the goods.

10* play on Miami Florida.

The set-up: The Jackets got back on track with a win over a dangerous Buffalo team, which snapped a two-game slide last time out and I believe they're going to make the most of this one, before they have to hit the road themselves. Anaheim had a terrible season last year (injuries was the main reason), so establishing a quick start this season was paramount for it. The Ducks started off 3-0, but the wheels finally came off the bus in a 2-1 setback on Pittsburgh just last night. WIth a couple nights off after this before finally returning home to The Pond, I do definitely feel that this sets up as a massive trap/letdown for the visiting side. 

The pick: CBJ won't be "looking past" this opportunity, as it does indeed hit the road for a difficult trip up next. Additionally note that the Ducks are just 10-13 in their last 23 when playing on back-to-back days, while the Blue Jackets are 8-4 in their last 12 when playing with three days rest. Overwhelming situational factors and a favorable line make Columbus the correct call here.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The set-up: Clearly I'm not calling for the outright victory. New York has several injuries and is a big underdog for a reason. The Patriots and Tom Brady continue to roll and come into this one undefeated. New England's defense is dominating as well. I simply feel though that the Pats are going to get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today, leaving the backdoor open just enough to allow the hungry visiting side to sneak in down the stretch. The Giants had their two-game win streak snapped in last week's 28-10 home loss to the Vikes, while the Pats enter off a 33-7 road win over the Skins. 

The pick: Daniel Jones is no Brady, but he's been a lot better than Eli Manning (760 yards, four TD's and three INT's.) Brady had 348 yards, three TD's and an INT last week, but he was also sacked four times. While the Giants offense is banged up, the defense is actually a strenght of the team now (13 sacks and five INT's.) With the Jets up next weekend, I think the Patriots come out and get caught looking ahead to that one as well. As stated off the top, clearly I'm not calling for the outright win, but I do expect a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Both teams are 3-2. Both are 0-1 in ACC action. Both are also coming out of their respective bye weeks. Syracuse is led by QB Tommy DeVito, who has 1,234 passing yards and 11 TD's (eight in the last two games.) The Orange defense has been decent, having posted 12 forced turnovers.  

The pick: NC State comes out of its bye week with a new face under center in Bailey Hockman, who is a four star FSU transfer. For his career he's 28 of 50 for 255 yards, one TD and one INT. Also note that the Wolf Pack will be without RB Ricky Person, as well as OT Justin Witt. Take it for what you will as well, but NC State is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, while the Orange are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse.

The set-up: These two teams are known for their offensive explosiveness, but the Bolts come to Toronto sitting at 1-2, while the hosts are just 2-2. Tampa will be wary here as it fell 4-3 to Florida, before then losing 4-3 to Carolina. The goods news for TB fans is that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly is 10-5-1 with a 2.27 GAA lifetime vs. the Leafs. 

The pick: Toronto will also be "clamping" down as it looks to get back into the winners circle, as a 6-5 shootout loss to the Habs was followed by a 3-2 loss to the Blues. Both games at home. Leafs goaltender Fredrick Anderson is only 3-9-1 with a 3.69 GAA vs. the Lightning lifetime, but note that Toronto has seen the total dip under the number in 17 of its last 27 when playing with two days rest. Considering the situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, I'm banking on more of a tightly checked defensive affair. 

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the Bolts/Leafs UNDER.

The set-up: Anaheim was hampered by injury last year and it suffered through a terrible campaign. The Ducks have gotten out to a quick start this season though with 3-0 record thus far. The Penguins are just 1-2 and this is the final game of their home stand. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the Pens. The Ducks come in complacent, the home side enters focussed. 

The pick: Additionally take into account Anaheim's wins, which have come over the Coyotes, Sharks and Red Wings. Yes Pittsburgh is dealing with some early injury issues (Malkin), but that's just part of the game. The season is young and Sid The Kid and Matt Murray are still fresh. I think the home side makes adjustments and then makes the most of this favorable home spot. Lay the price.

10* BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The set-up: The Kings are now 1-1 after defeating the Flames 4-3 just last night in Calgary. Vancouver though is 0-2 and I believe the home side is going to risk life and limb today as it looks to get off the schneid and to record a victory here in front of the home town crowd. LA's Jon Quick is 0-1 with a 6.19 GAA

The pick: Vancouver was blanked 3-0 by the Flames last time out, despite directing 33 pucks on the net. Canucks' netminder Jacob Markstrom looked good too in defeat, allowing two goals in 29 shots. Note as well that the Canucks are 7-2 in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while the Kings are just 2-6 in their last eight road games when playing the second game of a back to back and in which they scored four or more goals in a victory in the first. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Vancouver Canucks.

The set-up: This has been an entertaining NLCS. Competitive. I believe that the final contest will also prove to be a war until the end. So in a game which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side goes with Walker Buehler. 

The pitchers: Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) was 8-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 19 starts on the road this year. Note that he's 3-2 with a minuscule 0.64 ERA in five games in the playoffs in his career, which includes going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in two games this season. 

Buehler (14-4, 3.26) was 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA in 14 starts at home this season and he's 1-1 with a 3.03 ERA in five career postseason starts. 

The pick: I think Washington has stolen the momentum in this series. The Nats have the more experirenced hurler on the mound to start this one as well. While the outright win isn't out of the question obviously, in the end I'm grabbing the red hot Nationals on the run line.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Nationals run-line.

The set-up: Appalachian State is 4-0, while Louisiana Lafayette is 4-1. The Mountaineers were 11-2 last year and they'd go on to beat these very Rajin Cajuns in the Conference Championship game. Louisiana State's only loss came against Mississippi State.  App State QB Zac Thomas has been great for the undefeated Mountaineers, but the questions mark remain on the defensive side of the ball. If the Mountaineers have any hopes of progressing to a NY6 contest, then clearly they're going to have to get it figured out on that side of things. The Cajuns have been spectacular running the football though, so the home side will be sticking to its strength while on offense obviously. App State's strength on the defensive side is its run defense, which allows only 165 yards per game. 

The pick: Both teams have had extra time off to heal up and I believe this is going to be a battle until the final whistle. Additionally note that App State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten following a cover as a double digit favorite, while LA Lafayette has seen the total go under in four of its last five after two or more SU victories. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL BUTT WHOOPIN on the UNDER App State/Lafayette.

The set-up: Boston is 2-0. Las Vegas is 2-0. These two undefeated non-conference powerhouses collide on Tuesday night and in my opinoin, it's going to be the men between the pipes who become the main storyline's in tomorrow's summaries. Las Vegas hammered the Sharks by a combined score of 9-2 to open the year, while the Bruins have beaten Dallas and Arizona. Last year the Bruins ranked No. 2 in defense and that's been the story early on as well this year. I have a hard time seeing the Knights mustering up much offense here vs. the red hot Tuukka Rask. 

The pick: Not to be outdone though, Las Vegas netminder Marc Andre Fleury has also been extremely sharp in the early going, allowing just the two goals so far. Note that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 30 when playing with two days rest, while Vegas has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 15 when playing with three or more days rest. This number is high.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bruins/Knights.

The set-up:  This is a big game for both non-conference opponents. The Jets are just 1-2, but I think the visitors are going to get caught "looking ahead" to their upcoming home and first home stretch of the season. The Jets looked poor in the 4-1 loss to the Islanders and I have a hard time seeing the team mustering much of an offensive attack tonight either. The visitors are expected to start Connor Hellebuyck, who is 0-1 with a 5.07 GAA after a 6-4 loss to the Rangers in regulation. 

The pick: The Pens looked flat in their opener, but great in their second game vs. the Blue Jackets, destroying them 7-2. Pittsburgh goalie Matt Murray stopped 28 of 30 shots and he's now 1-1 with a 2.55 GAA. Note that the Pens are a sharp 116-54 in their last 170 as a home favorite, while the Jets are a poor 2-8 in their last ten vs. the Eastern Conference. I'm expecting a decisive lop-sided destruction, so lay the price.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The set-up: It's do or die for the Twins as they return home down 0-2. Minnesota was great at home this season and while I do think the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in a game which I envistion being decided late or in extra frames, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side counters with Jake Odorizzi.

The pitchers: Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) is 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA on the road this year. Note that he's 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in six postseason starts and he's 0-1 with a 4.57 ERA in two career starts vs. Minnesota.

Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51) is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 15 starts at home this year. He's 7-9 with a 4.51 ERA in 18 games vs. the Yanks and this is his first postseason appearance.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is a poor 8-10 (-6.3 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Minnesota is 15-6 (+11 units) this season when playing with double revenge with two straight losses vs. an opponent.

10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Twins on the RUN-LINE.

TThe set-up: The Browns hit the West Coast looking to pull off the slight upset and in my opinion, they definitely have a legitimate shot at doing just that. The 49ers are 3-0, but they've been off since a win over the Steelers in Week 3. Cleveland is 2-2 and it enters off its best performance of the sason, smashing the Ravens 40-25. It took a few games for the Browns' offense to find its footing, but I have no reason not to believe that it can't continue to progress each week. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had 165 yards and three TD's, while QB Baker Mayfield had 342 passing yards and a TD.

The pick: Jimmy Garapollo had 277 yards passing, a TD and an INT in his victory over the lowly Steelers, but note that the Browns concede just 215.2 YPG through the air. Additionally note that San Fran is a terrible 0-6 ATS in its last six following its bye week, while the Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road game vs. a team with a winnng home record. Grab the points.

10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns

The set-up: Buffalo is 2-0 and Columbus is 0-2. Despite losing many key players over the off-season and not being the same team as they were last year, I believe the Blue Jackets buckle down here and find a way to get the job done vs. the over-achieving Sabres. Carter Hutton has looked great early for Buffalo, but I believe he'll have his hands full here vs. the focused Columbus side.

The pick: Joonas Korpisalo has a big opportunity here to help his team earn its first win. Note though that Columbus has in fact done extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 34-17 (+13.6 units) following a loss by two goals or more in its previous game. Buffalo on the other hand is a terrible 16-33 (-13.5 units) in its last 39 after scoring four or more goals in its previous game. Great value on the desperate home side.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The set-up: The Colts are 2-2 and the Chiefs are 4-0. KC managed a 34-30 road win in Detroit last time out, while Indianapolis got caught looking ahead to this game after last week’s upset loss at home to the Raiders. I think a similar thing is going to happen here to the now content home side and while I’m not predicting any outright upsets or anything, I do think that the Chiefs come out and try to “control” this one, rather than run their opponent off the field with a frantic pace from start to finish. And clearly Jacoby Brissett and company can’t turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to beat the high-flying Chiefs at their own style of game. Instead, the visitors will also definitely be out to “control” this contest while on offense. So from an overall situational stand point, there’s no question non my mind that this one sets up as more of a defensive chess match, than a wide open shootout. 

The pick: However also note that Indy has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 19 after one or more SU losses, while KC has seen the total dip under the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite of ten points or more. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Colts/Chiefs.

The set-up: The Jets lost their opener 6-4 to the Rangers, and then needed a shootout to beat the Devils 5-4. The Jets are dealing with a rash of injuries and with transition to their core line-up after off-season moves. The Islanders are also dealing with new faces, but after dropping their home opener to the Capitals, I expect the home side to buckle down here and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

The pick: Jets’ goaltender Connor Hellebuyck allowed five goals in the loss to the Rangers. New York will turn to Thomas Greiss in this one, last year he was 23-14-2 with a 2.28 GAA. Note that the Ises are 4-1 in their last five vs. the Western Conference, while the Jets are just 2-6 in their last eight vs. the East. Greiss is in a fight for the No. 1 spot in net and I believe he’ll be the difference maker for the home side tonight. Lay the very reasonable price.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the New York Islanders.

The set-up: The Cards took Game 1 by a score of 7-6, before the Braves answered with a 3-0 win in Game 2. Game 1 could have gone either way. Game 2 was decisive from start to finish. Mike Soroka gets the nod for the visitors, while Adam Wainwright gets the call for the home side. 

The pitchers: Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA) faced the Cards twice this year and dominated in both games, going seven scoreless in the first and then holding them to two runs over six frames in the second. Note that Soroka was 7-1 with a 1.55 ERA on the road this year as well. 

Wainwright (14-10, 4.19) gave up five runs over four innings in a 10-2 loss (his only matchup this season) to the Braves this year. 

The pick: The Braves average 5.28 RPG this year. The Cardinals average 4.72. St. Louis is 0-4 in its last four vs. a right-handed starter, while ATL is 20-8 this year following a victory. I  think Soroka and the hard-hitting visiting side a “steal” at this price.

10* COACH’S CORNER on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: The Cardinals are 0-3 and the Bengals are 0-4. Both teams have an ultra slim shot at even making the playoffs after their respective poor starts, but I still think that a healthy Cardinals team has much more in the tank than their reeling opponent. Arizona has played some incredibly difficult teams to open the year and it’s remained/looked competitive. The Bengals have been a train wreck and Cards’ QB Kyler Murray will finally have time to operate this afternoon. 

The pick: The Bengals lost 27-3 to the Steelers on Monday Night Football, as veteran QB Andy Dalton was 21 of 27 for 171 yards, zero TD’s, one INT and eight sacks. Note that Cincinnati is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Cards a solid 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road contests. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Arizona Cardinals.

The set-up: Washington is 4-1 and Stanford is 2-3. The Huskies only loss cam to Cal in Week 2. Last week the Huskies beat USC, but QB Jacob Eason was only 16 of 26 for 180 yards and no TD’s. Stanford and head coach David Shaw have an uncharacteristically difficult start to the season, but they come in off a solid 31-28 Pac 12 win over Oregon State and I think the home side carries that momentum over here:

“The last three weeks have been tough,” said Shaw recently. “They’ve been really tough. We played against really good teams two of them on the road in very difficult environments.”

The pick: Stanford backup QB David Mills replaced KJ Costello, who has a thumb injury, and he went 18 for 25 for 245 yards and three TD’s last week. Look for this steadily improving Cardinal side to keep this one closer than what this spread would suggest. 

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford.

The set-up: Both teams fell in their respective season openers, with the Stars falling at home to the Bruins, while the Blues lost at home to the Capitals. Last year the Stars had the 28th offense in the NHL, averaging only 2.55 GPG, and after falling 2-1 in their opener, it definitely appears as if the offense is still “stuck in neutral.” Dallas goaltender Ben Bishop allowed two goals on 20 shots in the Stars’ opening night loss. 

The pick: The Blues finished 15th in the NHL last year on offense with 2.98 GPG. St. Louis actually had a 2-0 lead at one point over Washington, before collapsing and falling 3-2. Goaltender Jordan Binnington was solid in the setback, making 31 saves on 34 attempts. Additionally note that the Blues are 4-1 in their last five after scoring two goals or less in their previous game, while Dallas is 0-4 in its last four after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay the price.

10* EXPRESS on the St. Louis Blues.

The set-up: It’s No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 25 Michigan State and I’m expecting a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle until the end today. MSU is 4-1 and 2-0 in conference, while Ohio State is 4-0 and 2-0 in Big Ten play. While Ohio State has looked solid, MSU has some question marks surrounding it after losing at home to Arizona State and then barely holing on for the win vs. Indiana last weekend. The Buckeyes come into this one after a solid 48-7 win over Nebraska. 

The pick: MSU averages 31 PPG, but its strength is on the defensive side where it allows only 15. Ohio State has averaged 52 PPG, while allowing just 8.6. Look for each team to try and control this one while on offense as they look to limit mistakes. I expect these top notch defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. 

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the UNDER MSU/Ohio State.

The set-up: Washington has come out and won back-to-back road games to open the season, beating the Blues on opening night and the Islanders in Long Island just last night. Now the Capitals return home for their first home game of the year. Carolina on the other hand beat the Montreal Canadiens at home in a shootout in its opener. Petr Mrazek was 23-14-3 last year with a 2.39 GAA. Mrazek was excellent vs. the Habs in the opener, posting 33 saves and while he lost both games vs. the Capitals last year, he posted a sharp 2.56 GAA in the setbacks. 

The pick: Washington has a top five offense, but after last night’s contest I expect more of a methodical pace from the Capitals here. Note that Washington goaltender Braden Holtby was 4-0 vs. the Hurricanes last year, posting a tiny 2.21 GAA in the process. I believe the stage is set for a classic goaltenders battle in this one. This number is a tad high. 

10* TOTAL EXPRESS on the UNDER Hurricanes/Capitals.

The set-up: This is a big Mountain West Conference matchup, as both teams come in at 2-2. San Jose State already suffered a conference loss, falling 41-24 to the Air Force Falcons last week, while this will be New Mexico’s conference opener. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Lobos have to be liking their chances at an upset today, as the last time these teams met, New Mexico pulled way for the 48-41 victory. New Mexico comes in hungry as well after last week’s loss to Liberty. San Jose State averages just 25.1 PPG and New Mexico looked a lot better defensively last week, allowing only 17 points in the setback to Liberty. The Lobos have a QB issue, with Tevaka Tuioti and Sheriron Jones splitting time after the starter went down win injury in Week 1. 

The pick: San Jose State somehow managed a win on the road vs. Arkansas and QB Josh Love is a clear strength of the team. The Spartans though are an absolute disaster defensively, as the unit allows the 11th most yards in all of FBS college football at the moment. Note that New Mexico is 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two straight non-conference games, while San Jose State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a favorite and only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 at home. Grab the points and expect a battle.

10* ULTIMATE SUPER SHOCKER on New Mexico.

The set-up: The Leafs skated to a high-scoring 5-3 win on home ice vs. the Senators to open the year, but I think they’ll have much more of a fight on their hands in Columbus on Friday night. Toronto will once again see Fredrich Anderson between the pipes, while the home side goes with Joonas Korpisalo. Note that Toronto was only 1 for 5 on the power play in its victory, but it would kill off all three penalties against it. Anderson looked good after a shaky start, going on to stop 23 of 26 shots. 

The pick: Columbus took out the Lightning in the first round of the playoffs last year, so expectations are high obviously for the home side this season. Columbus though lost a lot of talent to free agency, but Korpisalo was decent in a back-up role for the CBJ’s, going 10-7-3. Columbus is trying to figure out its offense and Toronto has had its fair share of issues on the road. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Leafs/Jackets.

The set-up: These are two talented clubs. On both ends of the ice. Both possess World Class goaltending, but each is looking to pick things up on the offensive end this season. I believe that the numbers/trends definitely point to a higher-scoring shootout.  

The pick: As note that Boston has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten games played on the road in October when the total is set at either 5.5 or 6, while Dallas has seen the total soar over in 13 of its last 21 at home when the line in the game is set between -125 and +125. Bank on these two non-conference clubs putting the foot on the gas from start to finish and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

10* play on the OVER Bruins/Stars.

The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play. I’d consider myself primarily a “situational” handicapper. And that’s definitely the approach I take when looking at Over/unders in all sports. I do indeed feel this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. The short week isn’t going to help either team obviously. LA is coming off an atrocious loss to Tampa Bay at home, unable to slow down Jameis Winston and company defensively, while also failing completely on the offensive side. Note that Jared Goff threw three INT’s last week and the run game produced only 23 yards total. Goff threw the ball 62 times! If the Rams have any hopes of getting back on track, clearly they have to establish the run game. 

The pick: Seattle’s three wins have come against the Bengals, Steeler and Cardinals. Are the Rams better than these teams? Probably. Seattle had a complete meltdown at home to New Orleans two weeks ago, so clearly it won’t be looking past or taking anything for granted today facing co-division leading LA this evening. As stated off the top, from an overall “situational” stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a lower-scoring under. But note that the numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that LA has seen the total dip under in 16 of its last 24 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous game, while Seattle has seen the total go under in four of its last five after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. With each team looking to establish the run while on offense and to limit its overall mistakes and when also taking into account these strong trends/stats, everything points to the under as the savvy call in this one.

10* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rams/Hawks.

The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the stage is set for a much closer battle than what this spread would suggest. ECU is coming off a 24-21 upset road victory over ODU and I believe the Pirates carry that momentum over here. Temple comes to town off a 24-2 win at home over Georgia Tech. Previous to that though the Owls were upset 38-22 on the road in Buffalo. 

The pick: ECU has won two in a row and three of its last four. The Pirates have been getting strong defensive play as well, allowing only 151.4 YPG, and note that ECU has had to face Navy as well this year. The Owls are a terrible 0-6 ATS in their last six as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while ECU is 5-1 ATS in its last six after playing a non-conference game. Grab the points and sit back and relax on this one.

10* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina.

The set-up: Carolina made it all the way to the Conference Finals somehow last year, but then got swept by the Bruins. Montreal finished fourth in the Atlantic and it’ll be looking to get out to a much better start in 2019/20, after getting in an early hole in each of the last two years. The Hurricanes look poised for a massive letdown in my opinion, while the Canadiens look primed to deliver value in the early going. Five of Montreal’s top six scorers return. Last year Habs’ net minder Carey Price was 1-1-1 vs. the Hurricanes, allowing eight goals on 93 shots. 

The pick: Carolina goaltender Petr Mrazek faced Montreal once last year and he gave up five goals on 39 shots. I believe the stage is set for the slight upset on Opening Night. Play on the visitors.

10* play on the Montreal Canadiens. 

The set-up: The Braves won the season series 4-2, going 2-1 at home and on the road. This is a matchup and a situation which favors the home side and I expect it to step up and deliver the goods. The visitors hand the ball to Miles Mikolas, whole the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. 

The pitchers: Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA) is 1-2 with a 2.61 ERA in three career starts vs. Atlanta, but he’s just 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA over his last three starts. 

Keuchel (8-8, 3.75) is 0-2 with a 10.03 ERA in two starts vs. the Cardinals and he struggled a bit down the stretch. Overall I’d call these volatile starters a “wash,” but will give Keuchel the slight nod because of the home field advantage. 

The pick: St. Louis is a poor 1-4 in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while Atlanta is 7-2 in its last nine at home vs. teams with a winning home record. Atlanta was dominant at home this year and I believe they come out and make a statement to open this series. Lay the short price.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Atlanta Braves.

The set-up: I’m expecting a wide open “shootout” between these two high-flying Western Conference opponents. San Jose was second in the Pacific last year, while Las Vegas was third. San Jose advanced to the Western Conference Finals despite finishing the regular season with the worst team save percentage in the NHL (.889). Both San Jose goalies have struggled vs. the Knights, as Aaron Dell is 0-2-1 with a 4.46 GAA, while Martin Jones is 3-2-0 with a 3.44 GAA. San Jose got the job done with its offense last year, averaging 3.52 GPG, which was second best (the defense allowed 3.15 GPG, which was the 11th highest.) 

The pick: The Knights averaged 3.00 GPG and they conceded 2.78 last year. Last year the Knights were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by these very Sharks in Game 7 on a controversial call. Clearly the home side will be out to beatdown their visitors here today. When you add up all the situational factors above, as stated off the top I believe this one does indeed have “shootout” written all over it. 

10* play on the over Sharks/Knights.

The set-up: The winner of the AL Wildcard plays the Astros in Houston this weekend in the ALDS. Both of these starters come into this game “hot” and I expect each to throw deep. Charlie Morton gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Sean Manaea. 

The pitchers: Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) is 2-2 with a 4.60 ERA in seven postseason appearances. Morton appeared in the All Star Game this year. 

Manaea (0-0, 1.21) returned from a 12 month absence due to a torn labrum in September and since then he’s been nearly untouchable, winning both home starts with a 2.13 ERA. 

The pick: Note that Manaea is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa. Morton went 1-0 with a minuscule 0.68 ERA in two starts vs. the A’s this year (note that Morton owns a 1.65 ERA in three starts at Oakland in his career as well.) This one has “duel” written all over it in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rays/A’s.  

The set-up: I’m expecting a decisive victory for the home side in this “one and done” Wild Card game. Both teams were hot down the stretch, but I think the Nationals’ Max Scherzer is the difference maker here. The Brewers counter with Brandon Woodruff to start.

The pitchers: Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA) comes in off two strong outings vs. the Pirates and Padres. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Woodruff at this point, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

Scherzer (11-7, 2.92) enters off a full weeks rest and he owns a tiny 1.03 WHIP this season. 

The pick: Brewers’ slugger Christian Yelich is obviously not playing because of an earlier injury. Milwaukee center fielder Lorenzo Cain is also listed as day to day, while slugger Ryan Braun is dealing with a leg issue. The Nationals haven’t won a playoff series in 38 years, so clearly they won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note as well that the Nats are 6-0 in their last six vs. right-handed starters, while the Brewers are only 3-8 in their last 11 on the road. Milwaukee comes to town weakened and I believe Washington finally gets the monkey off its back with a resounding victory. Lay the 1.5 runs for the small plus money return.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Nationals RUN LINE.

The set-up: I think this is a great situational play. The Bengals are 0-3 and the Steelers are 0-3. For all intents and purposes, these two teams are already planning ahead to next season. The Steelers looked horrible even before starting QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury. Last week Big Ben’s backup Mason Rudolph looked horrible against the 49ers and I don’t see anything changing here vs. the Bengals’ hungry defense. 

The pick: As mentioned off the top, even with Roethlisberger in the line-up, the Steelers’ offense looked poor. The Steelers are getting poor play from RB James Conner as well, who is averaging only 2.9 YPC. The Bengals almost beat the Seahawks and the Bills on the road (fumbles in the closing moments ruined the outright victory,) and it’s been because of their defensive play. I think both teams concentrate on the run as well while on offense as they try to control this contest and limit mistakes. Taking into account all of the above situational factors, I’m going to play the under.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under Bengals/Steelers.

The set-up: I think the Bucs are going to have a hard time moving the ball vs. this improved Rams’ defensive front. The Bucs are 1-2 and on the ropes in a tough division, while the Rams are 3-0. LA’s offense has yet to get untracked though, as their win last week on Sunday Night was anything but spectacular vs. the Rams. LA’ QB Jared Goff is definitely suffering an early season letdown compared to last year’s numbers. Jameis Winston has been hit or miss early and I think his struggles on the road continues here. 

The pick: Tampa’s defense has been much better with Todd Bowles directing the unit and it’ll be looking to get after Goff early and often. In fact note that the Bucs have the league’s sack leader in Shaq Barrett. Also note that LA RB Todd Gurley continues to struggle with consistency as well after returning from injury late last year. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 

10* NON-CONF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Bucs/Rams.

The set-up: Last year these team’s split two very close games which were decided by a combined five points. I don’t think anything will change this season either between these division rivals. The Ravens’ offense looks decent behind Lamar Jackson, who has 863 yards passing and seven TD’s. But the Ravens are in a letdown spot after their first loss of the year last week, falling 33-28 in Kansas City. Yes the Browns are only 1-2, but they’ve looked a lot better after their poor Week 1 performance/collapse vs. the Titans. Cleveland looked great last week I thought despite falling 20-13 at home to the high-powered Rams. Bayker Mayfield is under an extreme amount of pressure and while he did throw an INT on the four yard line with 33 seconds left, I think he continues to progress and gain confidence as the season progresses. This is a big game for Cleveland, as a win today propels them into a tie for the division lead. 

The pick: Cleveland’s offense is going to break out at some point this year and if not now, when? Cleveland’s defense is ranked 16th overall, allowing 22 PPG. The Ravens average 36 PPG and they concede 20. This isn’t going to be a cake-walk, but the Browns to have the talent in all three phases to hang with the Ravens and when you add on the desperation factor, I wouldn’t in fact be shocked by an outright upset. Note that the Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and in their last four following a SU loss, while the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss and 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU loss. I’m grabbing the points.

10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: I think the desperate 1-3 Bruins will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire vs. the 2-1 Wildcats. UCLA managed a one-point victory in last year’s game. Arizona comes in having won straight at home, most recently over the hapless Texas Tech Red Raiders, but note that it’s still lost five of its last eight Pac 12 conference games overall. Arizona’s offense looks decent, but UCLA catches a break here facing suspect Wildcats’ QB Khalil Tate, who’s completed only 63 percent of his passes for six TD’s to four INT’s. 

The pick: The Bruins enter with momentum and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had five TD pass and two more on the ground. And that’s bad news for an Arizona secondary which has been torched by the pass this year, allowing 373 yards per game. The Bruins have been poor defensively, but note that they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. Arizona on the other hand is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its bye week. Grab the points and expect a closer than expected battle. 

10* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA.

The set-up: Ohio State has won four straight in this series, including a 36-31 home win in 2018. The Buckeyes are 4-0 and they enter off a 76-5 win over Miami Ohio last Saturday. Nebraska clearly won’t be rolling over here as it’s 3-1 and most recently it beat Illinois 42-38. These two Big Ten title contenders have played to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe that this Week 5 matchup finally sets up as more of a defensive affair. 

The pick: Nebraska’s defense is under-rated here, it allowing only 116.7 rushing yards and 240 passing yards per game. But not to be outdone, the Buckeyes come in ranked as the second best defense in the country, conceding just 220 total yards per game. Additionally note that the Buckeyes have seen the total go under the number in four of their last six when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points, while Nebraska has seen the total dip under in four of its last five after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ohio State/Nebraska under.

The set-up: Both teams have been playing well. Both teams are led by dynamic  QB’s. ASU is led by Jayden Daniels, while Cal is led by Chase Garbers. Daniels has looked poised early, but he’s still for the most part untested and that definitely changes tonight. Note that in the game vs. Michigan State, Daniels was only 15 of 26 for 140 yards and no TD’s in the 10-7 win. Cal sits 61st in the country in defense, allowing 366.5 YPG. The Bears’ secondary has given up just two passing TD’s as well through four games. 

The pick: Garbers has a 7:2 TD:INT thus far. He’s backed up by two competent RB’s in Christopher Brown Jr. and Marcel Dancy, who will keep the Sun Devils honest with Garbers (both have two rushing TD’s so far this season.) I give Cal the slight edge in all three phases and combined with the home field advantage, I’m going to confidently lay the points and expect a solid cover.

10* PAC-12 BEST OF THE BEST on California.