The 1-3 Yankees have given up a ton of runs (25) in those last three losses. They aren’t as overpowering on the road or in the last month, but still have that formidable offense, which improved at the trade deadline. It has been the starters who have faltered; the pen is still sharp.

The Cardinals swept the Cubs, and have won 6 of 7, allowing 3 runs or less in all of those wins. While the Cardinal starters have been very fine, the pen has been just average.

Right-hander Germaine starts for the Yankees. He has just three starts since returning from the long term IL, but has shown improvement in each start. At this point he won’t be pitching for length, and opposing batters have hit him to the tune of .286 BA.

Lefty Montgomery start for the Cardinals, no doubt still in shock from his surprise trade. He hasn’t pitched well in his last two starts, giving up 8 runs over 6+ innings. It is hard to know how Montgomery will react, but again I am not expecting a long start on Saturday.

The Cardinals are top five in offense, and almost a match for the Yankees in OPS at the moment. I am not counting on a great outing from Montgomery and the Cards will get their hacks vs Germaine. With a modest total tomorrow, I’m wagering on the over.

After a sweep at the hands of the Orioles, The Rangers won a tight game at home vs the White Sox on Thursday. Their bats have just been average of late, and they lost some key pieces on offense at the trade deadline. They’ll have a tough time scoring even three runs on Friday when they face the Sox’ Dylan Cease. Winner of Pitcher of the Month twice running, Cease continued his mastery of just about everyone. He hasn’t allowed more than a single run in 12 starts,. The Sox bullpen has been very good lately, and will be chomping at the bit. After some long starts, they haven’t had much work, but also haven’t given up a run in their last 5 games.

Cease faces the Rangers’ Glenn Otto. After a very poor June, he has steadied into a consistent pattern of allowing 3 or 4 runs over five or so innings. A combination of too many walks and hits leaves Otto consistently just out of the win column. While you wouldn’t have know it on Thursday, the Rangers pen has been struggling with an ERA of 6.23 over their last 5 games.

The White Sox are hitting well for average and power, especially vs. right-handers. Cease shows no sign of cooling off. Chicago has a very good past record vs. the Rangers. I am on the Sox on Friday and so are the odds-makers. Take the White Sox to win on the run line at -1 ½.

The Braves swept their last two series but now face a hot Mets team on the road. Atlanta isn’t quite as strong away from home, and they are being significantly out-hit by the Mets at the moment . Thursday’s starters squared off in May with Carrasco and the Mets winning 3-0. After a rough June, Carrasco was light-out in July with an ERA of 0.90. He gives up more hits than might be expected but is stingy with runs. He has been especially effective at home this year.

Atlanta’s Wright as also been very effective this season, with an ERA of 2.93 in his last 7 starts. The Mets have had some success against him in the past and he does give up more than his share of homeruns.

The Mets offense is quite something at the moment. They are a very good home team and while both starters are very effective, the edge goes to Carrasco in July. I am wagering on the Mets with the home advantage on Thursday. Take New York to win outright.

The Brewers have lost two straight to the lowly Pirates, so watch out for fireworks on Thursday. It is the first against the worst in terms of offense. Brewers are .290/.886 over the last 15 days while the Pirates occupy the cellar at .199/.594. The Brew Crew looks to Woodruff to stop the bleeding. He has been sharp in his last 7 games with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 2.31. He has been even better in his last two appearances, giving up just 2 runs over 12+ innings, striking out 17.

Zack Thompson starts for the Pirates and was absolutely crushed in his last two starts, giving up well over a run an inning with a total of 10+ innings pitched. While he pitched better than that in early July, he still ended up allowing opposing batters a .304 average. The Brewers have hit Thompson very hard in the past.

The Pirates do have a very good bullpen at the moment, but if Thompson continues as he has been pitching, it is likely the damage will have been done by then. Look for the Brewers to be swinging for the fences on Thursday. Take Milwaukee on the run line at – 1 ½.  9*.

I like Kansas City today. Brady Singer has been a good starter for them. Not only did he just post a 2.05 ERA in July, but back in May he defeated these very White Sox by tossing seven shutout innings of nine-strikeout, four-hit ball. His ERA in six career appearances against the White Sox is 2.73. 

Want to be even more impressed? Over his last three starts, Singer has a 0.95 ERA. He’s made four straight quality starts and just beat the Yankees, on the road, holding them to just one hit over seven frames. Singer has 22 strikeouts his last two starts. 

The Royals are just 4-6 their last 10 games and haven’t produced much offense in this series so far. It’s been just two runs in each game. They did steal the opener though. The White Sox are 6-4 their last 10 games overall, but do allow 5.3 runs/game at home. 

Lance Lynn has not been getting it done for Chicago. His ERA is 6.42. Clearly, the visiting team has a large edge in today’s starting pitching matchup.

That should be enough for the Royals to prevail. Love them at plus money in this situation.

After taking the series opener 6-5 (required 11 innings), the Guardians dropped yesterday’s game to the Diamondbacks by a count of 6-3. I expect the home team to bounce back this afternoon and take this series. Look for a win by two or more runs and take the Guards on the run line.

A pitching change for Arizona seems to have strengthened the Cleveland advantage here today. It was supposed to be Madison Bumgarner starting for the road team. Now it will be Tommy Henry. Henry, who had been on the taxi squad, is being recalled from Triple-A Reno. This is his big league debut.

Therefore, it’s a big-time edge in the starting pitching matchup for Cleveland as they have Shane Bieber going. Bieber has posted a 2.39 ERA at home over the last couple months with his last start here being a complete game. 

The last start for Bieber saw him go seven innings, allow just one run and the Guardians got the win, 4-1 over Tampa Bay. 

Arizona scoring six runs yesterday certainly surprised me. That will not happen again today. Not versus Bieber. Cleveland has won three of the four times they’ve been -175 or higher on the money line. They’ll win Wednesday by at least two runs.  Lay the -1.5.

The Diamondbacks have lost 4 straight games on the road and after a stretch of solid offense, they have sailed back into the batting doldrums, especially in the last week at .187/.606 OPS. They aren’t usually strong vs right-handers. Gallen, Tuesday’s starter, had five starts in July and his last three were very good, with just 3 runs given up over 18+ innings, and an opposing batting average of just .164. The Arizona pen has been top tier at 2.78 L15 games.

The Guardians have won 5 of 7 including last night’s home series opener. They are getting dependable hitting, and while some starters are struggling, the relief pitching has been excellent. Triston McKenzie has not been one of the Guardians’ poor starters. Anything but! He gave up 4 runs over 7 innings to the Red Sox, but was astounding in the rest of the month, giving up a single run in 26+ innings.

I am wagering on the Guardians on Tuesday. McKenzie pitched very well in his last start. He was unlucky to give up the four runs, and showed no sign of slowing down. Gallen has also pitched very well lately, but the Guardians have much the better offense, and the D-backs, who were forced to use 9 pitchers yesterday, might be a little tight in relievers. Take the Guardians to win outright on Tuesday.

The first vs the worst. The Brew Crew are tops in OPS and the Pirates are last over the last two weeks, struggling to a .188/.542 line. To make matters worse for the Pirates, Corbin Burns starts today He has been a strikeout machine lately with 26 in his last three games. He is 4-0, 1.96 ERA in his last 7 games.

He faces Bryse Wilson (1-6, 6.31), who has pitched better in July than his record would suggest. Wilson beat the Brewers when he last faced them, and has a 3.27 ERA over 4 starts in July.

With the way the two teams are hitting, a second win for Wilson is unlikely today. The Brewers are crushing right- handers in the last two weeks and Wilson struggles badly in the first two innings. I am wagering on the Brewers today, a big favorite, but a very good bet on the run line. Take Milwaukee to win at -1 ½.

The Tigers and Twins open a series today with both teams struggling lately. The Tigers are a poor road team this season, and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. They are getting effective pitching especially from the bullpen, but as usual are in the league dungeon as far as offense goes at .223/.650 OPS. Promising left hander Skubal starts for the Tigers today. He has been uneven at times this season, but his last two starts have been 6 inning shut outs, allowing just 5 hits total. Skubal shut out the Twins in June. He is certainly capable of a repeat.

The Twins were just 1-4 to close the month, allowing some very large runs-against totals in a couple of those losses. The Twins’ pitching collectively has struggled, and their big bats are in a tailspin at .196/.679 OPS. They have also lost Sano and Kepler to injury. Chris Archer starts for the Twins. He returned from the IL to throw two very poor starts, allowing 10 runs in just 7+ innings. All of his appearances have been short this season, which will allow the Tigers plenty of access to the Twins’ overworked bullpen.  A Tigers will win would not surprise me at all today. Take the Tigers to win. 9*

The 5-5 Nationals are at home to the Mets beginning on Monday, and will start Patrick Corbin. Every once in a while, Corbin (4-14, 6.49) will pitch like it is 2018 again, but it hasn’t been in any of his last 4 starts. His most recent outing was a “6 run in less than an inning” rout.

He faces Max Scherzer, who has been racking up the Ks since his return and also been very successful in limiting runs. He shut out the Yankees over 7 innings in his last appearance.

The Mets are ‘tops of the bops’ at the moment with a .940 OPS, and off a trashing of Lopez and the Marlins on Sunday. Washington’s bats have been stagnant at .222/.635. They really struggle against good pitching, scoring 2 or less runs in 3 of 4 games. The bullpen has been effective, but the damage has been done by the time the starters (7.10 ERA/L10 games) are off to the showers. Corbin is a lefty, and the Mets have crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of .378 in the last 5 games.

The Mets are a large favorite, but unless we get a retro start from Corbin, they should be fine on the run line at – 1 ½.

The White Sox beat the upstart A’s by a narrow margin on Saturday, but it could be a bit easier going on Sunday. Oiler, the A’s right handed rookie has not had a favorable reception in his first season. After five early and ugly starts, he spent time in the minors, and as a reliever before starting a pair of games in July. He lasted 9 innings in the two starts, giving up 6 runs, so if nothing else he is a lot better than he was in April.

He faces the Cubs’ ace Dylan Cease, who has been masterful this season. At 5-1 and with an ERA of 0.63 in his last 7 games, he has allowed just three runs in two months. He hasn’t missed a start and gives 6 or 7 innings per appearance. Can you spell Cy Young candidate? He is even better when pitching in daylight.

The A’s have been hitting much better lately but they were held in check on Saturday and no one has been able to get to Cease. The Sox have been hitting well for average, and are 7-1 in Cease’s last 7 starts. Chicago is a heavy favorite but should be good for the extra runs. Take the White Sox on the run line at -1 ½

The hard hitting Mets got to the Marlins’ seemingly invincible ace Alcantara in Game One of their series, then shut the Marlins out in Game Two. Third time’s a charm! The Mets are tops in offense over the last week with a .907 OPS; the Marlins are 27th, struggling to an OPS of .634. The injury-riddled Marlins have struggled against the Mets lately winning just 1 of 4 games. Their usually very good pitching staff has put up a 5.71 ERA in the past 7 games, with short appearances from the starters putting pressure on the bullpen. Lopez, today’s starter, was very sharp in his last outing with a 7 inning 1 run effort, but that was the first time he pitched past the 5th in 4 games.

He faces a very good right hander in Walker today, 4-0 in 7 starts, with an ERA of 2.20. He shut out the Marlins over 7 innings just a few starts ago allowing just 3 hits.

The Mets have had some success vs Lopez. They roughed him up in June, but lost against him in July. I am on the side of the Mets today. They have won 5 straight, have an equally fine starter on the mound and have far more fire-power. Take the Mets to win.

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY!

The Tigers stole a win on the road vs the Jays on Friday. With Toronto in the hunt for that top wild card spot or better, they can’t afford to lose a pair of games to the Tigers, and those big bats will be hungry after being stymied yesterday. Veteran Ross Stripling has been Mr. Dependable for the Jays, and has filled in very well since they lost Ryu to injury. He has a 3.06 ERA in his last 7 games.

Drew Hutchison (4.80 ERA), another Tigers’ reliever turned starter, has had mixed success this year. He has pitched just 9 innings total in his last two starts, giving up 4 runs in each.

Both teams have had very good stuff from the pen lately, but on offense there is no comparison. The Jays are hitting right handers to the tune of .338 lately, the Tigers just .190. The bats will decide this one. Take the Jays to win on the run line at – 1 ½. 10*

The Royals have lost two straight to the Yankees, 3 if you count Benintendi, who traded sides this series. KC is very poor as a road underdog, and are struggling on offense, with 3 shutouts in 4 games. Heasley starts for the Royals. He is just back from the IL but was not pitching well before injury, at 1-3, 6.00 ERA in his last seven games, so is a bit of an unknown at the moment.

He faces Yankees’ left-hander Cortes (8-3, 3.38) who had a great start to his season, saw his innings and effectiveness drop in mid-June, but has looked much better in his last two starts. He is very effective at home.

The 5-5 Yankees aren’t hitting quite up to snuff, but are still in the top ten. They are a tough out at home, and very hard on right handed pitching. The Royals are missing Witt to injury and now with the loss of Benintendi, are without a good portion of their offense. The Yankees are a huge favorite, but the odds on the run line are still acceptable. Yankees to win at -1 ½.

A pair of 5-5 underachieving teams square off on Friday. The Padres have been in the hitting doldrums for some time but have managed to raise their runs-scored average to over 4 in their last 4 games. The Twins don’t usually lack for offense, but they haven’t been up to snuff lately. Their problem has been pitching and while tomorrow’s starter has been effective, the relif pitching has been a shambles.

Rookie Joe Ryan has been a bright light for the Twins’ pitching staff. He has been very good in July with a 2.05 ERA, allowing just three runs total in his last three starts. Ryan does not pitch commonly for length.

The Padres start lefty Snell, who has struggled since returning from the IL. Much was expected of him, and he has looked better in July. He was lit up for 5 runs in 3+ innings two starts ago, but was much better in his other three appearances this month.

While the two starters can and have impressed, neither pitches for length. Relief pitching has been dreadful for the Twins lately and unusually unimpressive for the Padres.

Friday’s total is low, but I believe it will be the bullpens that decide this game. We’ve seen plenty of overs, even in the Padres’ games. Take the Twins and Padres to go over tomorrow. 9*.

The Rangers must have been glad to exit Seattle, a team they have had no luck against at all lately. They have fared better against the Angels although neither team has played well lately. The Angels did win their last series, their first in a long time. Martin Perez (8-2 2.59) starts for the road Rangers. Perez lost his way for a couple of starts in what has been a very impressive season, but in his last two appearances he has given up just 2 runs over 12 innings. He faces the Rangers’ lefty Sandoval, who is 0-5, 4.75 ERA in his last 5 starts. Sandoval’s last two outing were very short, giving up more than a run an inning. He has been hit very hard in July.

The Angels’ bats stepped up briefly after a very long poor stretch, but appear to be back in the doldrums on Thursday night with 0 runs over 8 innings. Perez, when he is on, is hard to score against. The Rangers’ bats have also been sluggish, but will have their chances on Friday if Sandoval continues his present form. Take the Rangers to win on the road. 10*

The 7-3 Guardians are climbing in the standings, passing the Red Sox for a potential wild card spot. They are hitting the ball well lately, and have a tough starter on the mound for Thursday’s game vs the Sox. McKenzie has been solid all year, but especially fine in the month of June, allowing just a single run in four starts. He has pitched into the 7th at least and has held opposing batters to a paltry .146 ERA this month.

The Red Sox are just 2-8, down a pair of top hitters and a bucket-load of pitchers. They’ve lost 2 straight to the Guardians, still have severe pitching issues, and the bats remain quiet. Thursday’s starter is reliever turned starter Kutter Crawford. He has been one of the Sox’ better starters in June, and held the Jays and Rays to 3 runs over 6 innings in each of his last two starts. Don’t expect more innings than that on Thursday, which allows the Guardians a shot at that shaky and overworked bullpen.

Cleveland has the better offense, a stronger starter and the momentum of a good run. The Red Sox have to be demoralized, and waiting to see whose head will roll. Take The Guardians to continue their winning ways on Thursday.  9*

You don’t usually need a lot of runs to beat the Pirates these days. They are worst in the league on offense at the moment, scoring 2 or less in 7 of their last 9 games. They face a very fine right-hander in Zach Wheeler who has been very sharp in three of his four July starts. Other than a poor outing vs the Jays, he allowed just a single run over 21 innings, with a 2.45 ERA for the month. The Phillies’ bullpen has been better this year although they blew a fine outing from Wheeler last time out, so should be motivated this time out. The Phillies are middle of the road on offense but consistent, and certainly consistently better than the Pirates. They are a very good road team this year.

The Pirates’ Zach Thompson was very poor in April but has been usually solid since, until his last start when he struggled to 7 runs over 5 innings against the Marlins. It could be a one-off, but he has some very poor starts in his history. Thompson doesn’t usually offer much in the way of length, and Pirates bullpen, while ok lately, is not dependable over multiple innings.

Wheeler and the Phillies’ offense have too much of an edge on Thursday, and are a large favorite.  With the number of runs the Pirates have been putting up and the number of runs Wheeler is not giving up, a solid Phillies win could be in order.  take the Phillies on the run line at -1 1/2.

Took Toronto on the run line last night and I’ll do so again here. The Blue Jays are really swinging the bats as well as anybody right now. They put up 10 more runs last night and have averaged 9.7 runs/game during a seven-game win streak.

Obviously, Toronto’s offensive numbers are somewhat inflated by that incredible 28-run effort they hung on the Red Sox last week. But even if you take that game out, they are still averaging 6.1 runs/game since making a change at manager.

Kevin Gausman won’t need much offensive support here. He comes in with a 3.00 ERA in 99 innings pitched and has allowed three runs or fewer in each of the last five starts. Gausman should have no trouble shutting down a St. Louis lineup that is without Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, both of whom are unvaccinated and thus unable to travel to Canada. 

St. Louis is really at a disadvantage being down those two players. It also doesn’t help that Adam Wainwright has a 6.97 ERA in two previous starts vs. Toronto. Wainwright also gave up seven runs in his last start.

All signs point to another blowout win by the home team, so lay the -1.5. 10*

The Giants are in a pretty sorry state right now. They are 0-6 the last six games and have lost to Arizona 7-0 and 7-3 the last two days. I don’t understand why they’d be a favorite on the road in today’s matchup.

The six straight losses are a season-high for SF, who now finds itself below .500 for the first time all year. It’s the first time the team has had a losing record since April of last season. Winless since the All-Star Break, the Giants will send Logan Webb out to the mound today. The team is only 3-6 this year in Webb’s road starts.

Webb was great when he faced the Diamondbacks earlier in the month, but that was at home. Worth noting that Giants’ pitching has surrendered a total of 39 runs during the losing streak, an average of more than six per game.

Zac Gallen is the starter today for Arizona. His second half began with seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against Washington. Right before the All-Star Break, Gallen faced the Giants and held them to two runs in 6 2/3 innings. So he’s in fine form right now as are the D’backs, who have captured five of the last six games, all of them coming here at home.

Being hotter, at home and having arguably the better starting pitcher in today’s matchup makes Arizona look to be a solid value on the money line. 10* 

The Angels broke out against the Braves on Sunday, but they are back to their low-scoring ways on Monday night. They scored 2 runs or less in their 5 games previous, and allowed some big runs against. The Angels just can’t get the bats going lately, hitting a paltry .208/.527 OPS in the last two weeks. Left hander Suarez (1-4, 5.60) starts for the Angels. He had some success in June but has struggled with short poor starts in July.

The home side Royals just took a series from Rays, and are running roughshod over the Angels on Monday night. They are hitting the ball hard lately (.296/.795 OPS) and are getting pretty decent pitching for the moment. They send out a very young left hander in Angel Zerpa, up for just his second start and third appearance. He has two wins already, and held the Jays to just 1 run on four hits over 5 innings in his first start.

The Royals’ bullpen has been solid lately. The same cannot be said for the Angels’ relievers. I am not usually a fan of wagering on untried rookies, but Zerpa has excellent stuff and Suarez has not impressed. The Royals are hard on left handed pitching. The Angels, you guessed it, struggle. Take the Royals to win on Tuesday. 10* 

No one is hitting the ball harder than the Jays at the moment, and it isn’t just the infamous Boston series. They are 8-2, settling in with a new manager, and playing a Cardinals team missing 2 key players due to Covid border issues. Berrios starts for the Jays. His results have been very mixed this season, but he appears to have re-found his form, with four straight quality starts in July, allowing 8 runs over 23+ innings, and with a strikeout to walk ratio of 29 to 4. The Jays’ bullpen has been very effective of late, which is not always the case.

The Cardinals have also been hitting well but will miss those 2 very big bats in the line-up, and aren’t the best road team. They have won just 1 of 3 since the break, and send out a very young right hander to start in Pallante. He started the season as a reliever and has just 8 starts under his belt. Pallante was very good in June with an ERA of under three, but has given up a ton of hits in July and seen his ERA climb very significantly.

The Jays are a streaky team, and their lineup is absolutely on fire at the moment, from lead-off right through to ninth batter. Berrios is a very fine starter when right. They are a heavy favorite, which would usually not be warranted against a team like the Cardinals, however the Cards are very much depleted for this series. Pallante may have his hands full on Tuesday. Take the Jays on the run line at -1 1/2. 10*

The Rockies have lost 4 straight and are in danger of being swept by the home team Brewers. They have still scored 18 runs in the series to date, so it hasn’t been the offense that has struggled. They haven’t had much in the way of pitching lately, which includes Freeland, today’s starter. He has struggled to a 5.57 ERA in his last 7 starts, giving up close to a run an inning in his last three. Opposing batters are hitting .300 in July.

The Brewers’ bats are on fire lately, taking advantage of the Rockies’ pitching woes, but all is not roses with their usually very fine pitching staff. The bullpen in particular has been hard hit with an ERA of 6.85 in their last 5 games. Today’s starter young lefty Ashby spent some time on the IL in June and hasn’t been right since. He hasn’t pitched past the 5th and has an ERA of 5.79 in July. He lasted just 1 inning in his last start.

We’ve seen 43 runs in the first 3 games of this series, and neither starters’ recent performance suggests anything different for today. I am totally on the over in today’s Rockies/Brewers game. 9*

The Red Sox were humbled by the Jays, and the Yankees before that, and are right back in it on Monday when the hard-hitting Guardians come to town. The Guardians are among the big boppers at the moment, while the Sox offense, like every other part of this team, has underachieved lately. There is no rest in sight for the beleaguered Sox starters with Pivetta on the mound. His last three starts have been beyond the pale, allowing an opposing batting average of .390, with too many walks and home runs. Considering the timeline on his poor play, he is not really a candidate to bounce back on Monday. Don’t look for support from the bullpen with an ERA of well over eight lately.

Cleveland’s starter Plesac (2-7, 4.02) has also struggled lately, with a couple of short poor starts in his last two outings. Opposing batters have hit him to the tune of .297 in July. Plesac pitched well in June so a better start from him is not out of the question. The Guardian’s pen has been solid in relief lately.

I am on the Guardians on Monday. The Red Sox appear to be in the “when will this all end” mode. Their play on the field has been poor with another 2 errors on Sunday, and their line up is depleted. Look for the Guardians to pad their averages vs. the Sox’ pitching staff and to steal this one on the road.

The Reds had quite a run before the break, taking a series from the Yankees and sweeping the Rays, but they have lost 2 of 3 to the Cardinals since. It is usually pitching issues for the Reds, and sure enough both starters and relievers have both slumped to ERAs approaching six in their last 7 games. Mahle (3-7, 4.48), Sunday’s starter, has just returned from the IL, out with shoulder issues. He has pitched better in his last starts than his record would suggest, but he has not been effective at home, and likely won’t pitch for length on Sunday.

The 5-3 Cardinals are near the top of the heap for offense at .299/.898 OPS in their last 7 games. Some of their starters are struggling, but that has not been the case with Mikolas. He has an ERA of 1.93 over his last 7 starts. Mikolas stymied the Reds just before the break, holding them to 1 run over 7 innings. Mikolas has been dependable and has consistently pitched for length this season.

Neither bullpen has been effective lately. This is no surprise for the Reds, but the Cardinals’ pen is usually more dependable. Mikolas will likely be more effective and stay in the game longer than Mahle, giving the Cards’ batters a chance to tee off on Cincinnati’s relievers. Take the Cardinals, a modest favorite, to win.

The Pirates and Marlins split a 4 game series in Miami recently with just 1 of 4 games going over 6 runs total. So far they’ve split the first two games of the Pittsburgh series, with Saturday’s final a minuscule 1-0. The Marlins’ offense is the picture of futility over the last two weeks at just .203/.521 OPS and 2 HR. While they exploded for 8 runs on Friday night, they have managed just 1 run total in 4 of their last 5 starts. The Pirates looked pumped up by comparison, but they are hardly an offensive powerhouse, and face arguably the league’s best pitcher on Sunday.

Miami’s starter Alcantara (9-4, 1.76) has thrown 23 innings in his last three starts and given up just 2 runs, striking out 26. He has been consistent and masterful all season, and hardly needs much in the way of relief. The Pirates haven’t faced him this season and are likely in for a rude awakening.

The Pirates counter with Keller (3-7, 4.55). While his stats aren’t imposing, Keller has turned his season around, and has been much better in his last couple of starts. He shut out the Rockies in Coors field over 6 innings, and held the Marlins to 1 run over 5 innings. The Pirates pen has struggled lately, but the Marlins are not much of a threat with the bats.

Look for continued excellent pitching from both starters, and a continuation of low-scoring games between these two teams. Take Miami and the Pirates to go Under on Sunday.

The suddenly-hot Jays have won 6 of 7, and set the team record for runs scored in Boston on Friday night. The Jays are a streaky team and their very fine offense has re-awakened lately. They have manhandled the Red Sox in recent meetings and are looking to make up ground in the crowded AL East. Just back from the All Star game, Manoah has walked the walk this year at 10-4, 2.28 ERA. He has already faced the Sox twice this year, tossing 14 innings and allowing just 2 runs. His last start was a 7 inning 1 run gem.

The Red Sox have given up 55 runs in their last 3 games, and while the pitching was especially brutal on Friday night, play on the field was also very poor. This is a demoralized team. They have now lost 7 straight, their pitching is a disaster, and they are hitting right handers at just a .198 clip L10 games.

Kutter Crawford is an unlikely savior. At the end of May, Crawford was a reliever with an 8.44 ERA. Now he has 5 starts under his belt, averages 5 innings an appearance, and has lowered his ERA to 4.50 (2.20 ERA in July). He gave up 3 runs in his last start, and hasn’t faced the Jays before.

It is hard to know how the Sox will react after such a poor effort. If it were a one-off, I would expect some bounce-back, but with 3 such poor losses in a row, who knows? The Jays often struggle when facing a pitcher for the first time, but their bats are on fire, and they will still have some innings against that very fallible bullpen. Manoah is tough to score very many runs on. Take the Jays to win.

The Guardians face the home team White Sox in game 2, after a big 8-0 win on Friday. Home field has been no advantage for the Sox this year; they have a better record on the road. Both of today’s starters have had a very solid month of July. Young right-hander Triston McKenzie was poor in June, but has been lights out in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs in 21 innings. He faces the Sox veteran Cueto who has also been sharp in July, giving up just 3 runs over 19 innings with an ERA of just 1.35.

The Guardians, winners of 4 straight, are hitting with authority, but they have struggled when facing quality pitching. The Sox have righted the ship on offense, but are not at their best with right-handed pitching. Both bullpens have been sparkling of late.

I am wagering on the total today. McKenzie is a very promising pitcher, and his last start was possibly his best yet. Cueto is showing better than he has in years. The total is moderate today, generous considering these two teams’ recent pitching success. Take the Guardians and White Sox to go under.

The Cubs have just 1 win in 10 starts and have scored 3 or less in 9 of those games. They haven’t had much length from their starters, but it is obviously the offense that is the real culprit. Their bullpen has been hanging in there with an ERA of 3.50 in spite of being used for 4 plus innings on average per game L10. Cubs lefty Justin Steele (3-6, 4.15) has turned things around this season, with an ERA of under 3 in May and June. Opponents have hit just .178 against him this month, and he is just about the only Cubs starter to pitch into the 6th or 7th lately.

The 5-5 Phillies are also struggling on offense, although they did break out in their last start. They are getting very solid pitching from their starters as well as from their often maligned bullpen recently. Kyle Gibson starts for the Phillies, and was hit hard three starts ago, giving up 4 home runs. He has been lights out since, allowing just 1 run over 13 innings. He is not usually a victim of the long ball.

Both these starters are showing well, and neither offense has been up to snuff lately. I expect another good outing from both pitchers on Friday, and runs could be scarce. Both pens will benefit from a few days rest. The over is higher than I might have expected and we have seen a ton of low-scoring outcomes from both of these teams recently. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under. 10 stars.

Here is an interesting matchup; Boston vs. the Yankees in New York, with the newly returning Chris Sale against the Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Sale look fine in his first game back, tossing five innings of shut-out ball. In his second start back from a long lay-off, the Sox aren’t likely to run up his pitch count.

The Red Sox have won just two games in ten, both against the Yankees in Boston. The Yankees appear to have taken offense, and pummeled them last night in the New York opener. The Sox’ offense is not in step at the moment. They are hitting right-handers at just a .206 clip, which does not bode well against Cole. On that note, two Sox batters, Devers and Martinez have had tremendous previous success vs Cole.

The 5-5 Yankees have lost a bit of their shine lately. Their usually dependable starters have an ERA of over five in their last ten games, and their pen isn’t in its usual fine form at 4.76 L10. Cole was great in his last start but gave up 7 runs total in his previous two starts. Cole is very much better when pitching in Yankee stadium. His ERA of 2.08 at home is half of what it is on the road.

It is hard to know what to expect out of Sale on Sunday, but I don’t think he will shut out New York The Yankees are hitting very well at the moment and are very tough on left-handers, especially for power. The Bombers are a very big favorite but Sunday’s total is low.  This is the Mightly Yankees and theirlong time rivals.  Take the over on Sunday>

The Royals and Jays finish up the first half in Toronto. The Royals aren’t a very good road team usually but this series is much tougher as the Royals are very depleted due to Covid border issues. Plenty of drama on the Jays side also, as Toronto sacked their manager after a disappointing first half.

We will see a pair of underachievers on the mound on Sunday. Jays’ starter Berrios (7-4, 5.38) has been an enigma this year, sometimes living up to his enormous potential, and sometimes just floundering. Berrios is 5-0, 3.40 ERA at home, with just a pair of victories and double the ERA on the road. In his last three starts, he has tossed 6, 6, and 5 innings and given up 6 runs in total.

He faces Royals’ lefty Bubic (1-6, 6.63), whose April and May starts were beyond bad. June and July have been better, pitching to an ERA of 4.6+ over the month and a half, but batters are still hitting him very hard.

The Jays have been hitting very well in the last week, doubling the Royals in home runs and up 50 points in batting avg. The Jays have never faced Bubic, and the Royals have limited experience against Berrios, although frankly no-one has even heard of half the Royals’ line up in this series.

It is hard to know what to think of either starter on Sunday. With Bubic’s track record and the Jays bats on fire, the Jays will have the opportunity to run up the score a bit. The Royals have had a lot of short starts lately, so have taxed the bullpen pretty heavily. The Jays starter went just three innings today, but they have had the benefit of some longer starts lately. Toronto's pen is fine at the moment hbut that has not always been the case this season.

Berrios is the big question tomorrow.  Even with 3 straight quality starts, chances are he will give up some runs, and his inconsistency is troubling. I am wagering that the Jays and their five All Stars have big day at the plate and that both bullpens give up a few runs each.  Take the Total to go over on Sunday.  9 stars.

Out of the frying pan, and into a high output gas burner. It doesn’t get any easier for the Cubs in the second game of the double header, as they face the Mets’ recently returned Scherzer. Two appearances back from a lengthy stay on the IL, and Scherzer hasn’t missed a beat, tossing two quality starts and allowing just 1 run on 13 innings of ball.

He faces the Cubs veteran Drew Smyly who also missed a start, but wasn’t so lucky on return. He was roughed up for 4 runs over just 2 innings. Smyly seldom pitches for length at the best of times which will put the burden where it is least needed, on the Cubs’ overworked and struggling bullpen.

The Mets are good on the road, and have been getting excellent starting pitching and solid relief. They broke out of their slump in the last two games scoring 15 runs. Let’s see if they will continue with the hot bats in games 1 & 2 today. The Cubs continue to struggle with the bats, and will be hard pressed in the second half of the double header for pitching.

The Mets are a bigger favorite in Game Two, but should be good for the extra runs. Take the Mets on the run line, at -1 ½. 10*

A pair of sluggish offenses pair off on Saturday, although one team seems to be waking up. The 2-8 Cubs have lost 7 straight and were shut out by the Mets on Thursday. The Cubs have struggled mightily with their bats, scoring less than 3 runs in 8 of their last 10 starts and managed just a .183 BA vs right-handed pitching in their latest games. Short outings from their starters has been another problem, with a domino effect on the bullpen. Stroman, just one game back from the IL, starts on Saturday.  He hasn’t pitched very much this year, but looked good in a short outing in his first game back, tossing a four inning shut out. Don’t look for length from Stroman; the Cubs will want to be careful with him at this point.

The Mets are a good road team, and have been getting excellent starting pitching and solid relief, but the offense hit just .210 vs right handed pitching in the last week. They did manage a series win vs the Braves and roughed up the Cubs in the first game of the series  8-0.

One of those fine starters is Taijuan Walker, who has put together a very good half-season, and will be looking to avoid the fate of last year when he fell apart immediately following the All Star Break. He has had a pair of 7 inning shutouts in his last three starts. Opponents are hitting just .163 against him in July.

I favor Walker and the Mets on Saturday. Walker will likely throw deeper into the game, the Mets have much better and better rested relievers and appear ready to start a run. 9/10 stars: Take the Mets to win.

Some would say they are overachieving, but the Mariners just keep on winning, now 10-1 in July. They won a close one last night vs the home team Rangers, and go for 2 straight in the series today. Robbie Ray starts for the M’s today, and he looks to have re-found his Cy Young form. Ray now has six straight quality starts allowing 1 run or less, while pitching 6 or 7 innings in each outing. He is, as usual, a strike-out machine.

For the Rangers, the tail end of their starting pitching line-up has really struggled, and with Bush, a reliever on the mound, it will be start by committee today. The only problem is that the “committee” is overworked and sporting an ugly 6.02 ERA.

The Mariners have some pop on offense, while the Rangers have more, but it is pitching that will rule the day today. The 5-7 Rangers have lost and won big in their last ten games, but Ray at the moment is very tough to run up much of a total, and the Seattle bullpen is lights out lately. The Mariners have won more than their share of close games lately, but I expect a wider margin today. Take the M’s, on a huge run and with all the momentum in the world, to win on the run line, at – 1 ½. 10*!

The Astros, with the second hottest offense in the league over the last two weeks, are right there in pitching stats as well. Not so the Angels, last in hitting lately and 22nd in pitching. It is no wonder the Angels are 2-8 and the Astros the reverse at 8-2.

Lefty rookie Reid Detmers came back from Triple A recharged, and threw a 6 inning 7 strikeout shutout his first game back. Detmers has had his moments this season, including a no hitter, but results have been very mixed.

He faces another left hander, the Astros’ very fine Framber Valdez (8-4, 2.64). Valdez faced the Angels just two starts ago, allowing 2 runs over 6 innings, and striking out 13! He keeps runs allowed to a minimum and pitches for length, holding the opposition to .167 BA in July.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Detmers pitched well tomorrow, but his outings seldom last beyond the 5th or 6th inning, and, wouldn’t you know it, the Angels’ bullpen is barely a shadow of the Astros’ stellar relievers. Take the Astros, dynamite on the road and vs left handed pitching, to win going away.

The Reds are suddenly on a roll, sweeping the Rays and splitting to date with the Yankees.  Meanwhile the Yankees look just slightly vulnerable at 5-5 L10.  The Reds are getting solid pitching, starting and relief, and have Castillo on the mound today.  Castillo (2.92 ERA) has really heated up in his last three starts, giving up just 2 runs in 20 innings and with some big strike out totals.

The Yankees pitching staff rarely struggles, but they have over the last week, with a collective ERA of 5.61. Lefty Cortes starts today.  A few cracks are starting to appear in Cortes' fine season.  His starts are shorter and he is giving up more runs (12 in his last 4 starts).  Opposing batters' avg. has climbed to .275 in July.  Add this to the Yankees' temporarily poor bullpen, and the Reds have a real opportunity for a second series victory.  I am wagering on the  Reds to keep this one close at least.  Take the Reds on the run line, at + 1 1/2.

The Twins, in spite of a very hot offense of late, are just 5-5 L10. It is the starting pitching that has been in question with a majority of very poor short starts. The bullpen has, over the same time, been reasonably effective.

Milwaukee has also struggled lately, but in their case the starters have been fine, while the bullpen has dropped the ball. Their offense had been very solid but it has cooled slightly in the last week.

The Brewers left hander Ashby (2-6, 4.52) started the season very well, but came off the rails at the beginning of June. Opposing hitters crushed him that month to the tune of .350, and July’s numbers have not been that much better. He has been very poor on the road this year.

He faces Twins’ rookie Joe Ryan. After a very fine start, he went on the IL, returning in June. Since then, he has shown steady improvement, flashing that early form in his last two starts.

The Twins are a good home team with very impressive OPS and home run stats. Ashby has been a victim of the long ball lately, and has not pitched for length. Ryan has the real goods and the Twins’ bullpen has been able to deliver lately, unlike the Brewers’. I am banking on the rookie Ryan and the Twins’ offense on Wednesday. Go with the favorite. Twins to win.

On paper, this looks like quite the mismatch. Cincinnati is 32-54 and in last place in the National League Central. The Yankees are 61-25 and not only in first place in the American League, but they have the best overall record in baseball.

But the Reds just did the Yankees a giant favor by sweeping Tampa Bay over the weekend. It was their first sweep of the season and just the second four-game win streak. The Reds might be buried in the standings, but they’ve gone a respectable 29-32 the last 61 games and deserve more respect than what they’re getting from the oddsmakers heading into this one.

Plus, the Yankees have lost two straight and could only manage a 3-3 split against Boston and Pittsburgh.

Ashcraft hasn’t been bad for Cincinnati as he’s allowed no more than two runs in six of his nine trips to the mound. Gerrit Cole allowed five runs in his last start for the Yankees and has given up a total of five home runs in the last three starts.

The Reds should not be this big of an underdog Tuesday. Take them on the run line, which is a tremendous value here at “plus money.” 

The Mets came in and took the series opener behind seven strong innings from Max Scherzer. I believe they can beat Atlanta again today with David Peterson set to start.

Peterson has a 9-2 team start record, which means the Mets have won 9 of the 11 times he’s started in 2022. His last start was shorter than usual (3.6 innings) with control issues (five walks). But that doesn’t worry me as the two starts before that one saw 18 strikeouts, no walks and only five runs allowed in 13 innings. Plus, the Mets won that last Peterson start anyway.

Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has been very good as well lately. Over his last three starts, his ERA is 0.50 and his WHIP is 0.611. Those are actually pretty filthy numbers. But the Braves are still just 4-4 in Strider’s eight starts this year.

Being that these are the top two teams in the NL East, this would seem to be a pretty even matchup, no? Taking the underdog is the way to go.

Now Strider does deserve our respect, so play the run line. Getting 1.5 runs at this price with a team like the Mets is a good deal. Before losing 4-1 last night, the Braves’ previous two games were both one-run wins against the last place Nationals.

Pittsburgh surprised a lot of people by going into Miami and winning 5-1. Following consecutive wins over the Brewers, the Pirates now find themselves on just their third three-game win streak of this season. They’ve yet to win four in a row. Over the last three seasons, the team has gone just 1-8 when it’s on a three-game win streak. So look for the Marlins to strike back and win today.

The Pirates have the worst offensive numbers of any National League team. Whether it’s on the road, or the last seven games overall, they’re hitting just .217. They average 3.4 runs/game on the road. A fourth straight game above that average seems rather unlikely.

The Marlins could certainly use a jolt at the plate. Fortunately, they’ll be facing Chris Stratton, who will be making his first start for the Pirates and first start period since 2019. Stratton has struggled as a reliever this year and doesn’t figure to last long. He’ll likely be used more as an “opener.” The problem with that (for the Pirates) is that the bullpen isn’t very reliable. 

Daniel Castano should be able to lead Miami to the win here. I already talked about how bad Pittsburgh has been swinging the bats. Castano’s last start at home was his best of the season, allowing just two runs in seven innings.

The Phillies have won 7 of 10, but It hasn’t been the big bats pulling the weight. The pitching staff has collectively thrown a 9 inning shut out in 4 of their last 7 games, and their often maligned bullpen has been absolutely lights out in the last 10 games.

The Cards’ bats ARE slumbering. They have been shut out 4 times in their last 10 games, twice by the Phillies, and are just 3 -7 lately. Their pitching has also been solid, especially the relievers; they haven’t given up more than 3 runs in their last 5 games.

Phillies’ starter Nola has had a solid season, and June was his best month. He consistently pitches into the 7th or 8th, has great control, and more than a few strikouts (120!) He has given up 7 runs in his last two starts, more than usual for Nola, but is very good in early innings.

His opponent Mikolas was brilliant early, and very good in June. He is a pitch to contact kind of guy, and doesn’t get the big strikeout totals. He faced the Phillies just 2 starts ago and allowed 4 runs, 2 earned over 6 innings.

I like the Phillies on Monday. The Cards haven’t faced Nola this year, and haven’t had much success against him in the past. The Phillies have the offense, they have the momentum at the moment, and they have done some damage against Mikolas. The Cards are struggling and I don’t think the turn around will come against Nola. He usually needs very little relief help. Take the Phillies to win.

The Cubs have lost three straight close games and are now 0-9 vs the Dodgers at home. The Cubs don’t get the job done on the road or against left handed pitching with any regularity. Meanwhile, the 9-1 Dodgers are on a tear, are dominant at home and very tough on lefties. LA left-hander Urias has won four straight games, giving up just 8 runs in his last 6 starts. There is no June swoon for Urias. He has improved as the season progressed, and consistently gives a 6 inning quality start.

Cubs left-hander Drew Smyly (2-5, 3.80) was getting the job done, especially early in the season, before injury. The opposition was hitting .277 against him in May. Smyly rarely pitches for length, but as he is just returning from the IL, that is a given today.

The Dodgers and Cubs are top ten in offense at the moment but the Dodgers have a good sized edge in power stats. Smyly can be prone to the long ball.

The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid lately but few can teams can match the Dodgers relief corps. All roads point to a Dodgers win. In his first game back, Smyly is a bit of an unknown. LA is a huge favorite but the odds on the run line are acceptable. Take the Dodgers to win at -1 ½.

The Tigers lost on Saturday, but have won 6 of 7, with solid offense, and other than last night, very good pitching. They are not a good road team, but have put up some surprising numbers lately and their bullpen has an ERA of under 2.00 L10. Usually a reliever, Drew Hutchison (4.30 ERA) has started 3 games in the Tigers rotation lately with modest success. His last game was his best, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings. The Tigers will likely be reliant on that bullpen, as he has yet to pitch past the fifth.

The 5-5 White Sox crushed the Tigers on the back of a fine start from Johnny Cuetto, but things are not all roses with the White Sox’ pitching staff. Kopech, Sunday’s starter pitched brilliantly in the first two months, but has fallen off the rails in his last 4 starts. His last outing was his worst, giving up 6 runs in 4+ innings. Walks were always something of an issue, but his home runs allowed have skyrocketed.

The Sox are a very poor home team, but are hitting right-handers well at the moment.

The White Sox are a significant favorite for Sunday, but after four sub-par starts, Kopech’s issues look more than fleeting. The White Sox’ bullpen has an ERA of over 4.2 lately. Hutchison is a bit of an unknown, but the young Tigers team is on an impressive streak at the moment. A win on Sunday wouldn't surprise me, but I do expect them to keep this game close.  Take the Tigers on the run line at + 1 1/2..

The Mets beat the Marlins at home in extra innings on Saturday. They’ve had a solid edge over the Marlins this year, leading 7-3 in games to date, however they face the Marlins’ ace on Sunday. The Marlins’ right-hander Alcantara has been a dominant starter this year, with a 1.82 ERA to date. He has faced the Mets twice this season. One of those starts was his worst in some time, giving up 4 runs over 7 innings. The other was a two run win. Alcantara has been light-out vs anyone not named Lindor, and pitches for great length consistently.

His opponent is no slouch this year. Walker (7-2,2.86 ERA) has faced the Marlins twice this year, allowing 4 runs over 12+ innings. He has been very fine in June, and is much better at home than on the road (1.86 vs 3.44).

The Marlins are a little like the “Mets light”, not quite as strong on offense and not quite as consistent in the pen. Alcantara is a big equalizer. He lost last time out to the Mets, and I would think that that game will be a motivator. Not to discount Walker, but he isn’t quite as consistent or overpowering. I am banking on a big game from Alcantara and the underdog Marlins on Sunday. Miami to win outright.

The Rays lost to the Reds in extra innings in a very fine pitchers’ duel. They are hitting better lately but did not show it on Friday. Rasmussen (5-3, 3.30) starts on Saturday. He pitched well in his return from the IL, holding the Jays to a single run over 4+innings in his last outing. You seldom get length out of Rasmussen, but of all teams, the Rays know how to get the most out of their pitchers.

The same would not appear true with the way the Reds are handling their rookie fire-baller Greene (3-10, 6.01).He has had a few good outings but the bad more than outweighs the good, as we can see from his stats. He has definitely not shone lately, giving up 15 runs in 14 innings. He leads the league in the unenviable stat of most home runs allowed to date.

The Reds are a very poor home team, with an indifferent offense this year. Their bullpen is not at all dependable usually, but they’ve managed two good relief efforts in their last two games. Don’t count on a third. Neither pitcher will likely go long tomorrow. I am banking on the Rays and the Rays’ bullpen to bounce back and win.

The Orioles won in the late innings on Friday and can make it 7 straight victories today. Right hander Dean Kramer is on the mound today. After a late start, Kramer pitched surprisingly well over his first five appearances to an ERA of 1.29. Start# 6 did not go as well. He allowed 5 runs in an ugly 5th inning, nearly doubling his ERA. A return to past form, or simply a bad inning?

He faces Angels’ lefty Sandoval, who was also roughed up in his last start, getting beaten early and often. Sandoval was very successful in June, allowing just 6 runs in 4 starts, but there are some warning signs. He consistently allows more hits than is healthy, his walk totals are high, and he is much better at home.

The Angels, with all of their potential offense, just can’t seem to get it together in recent games and have now lost 6 of 7 on this road trip. The management change has not appeared to help. It is hard to have much faith in the Angels at the moment. I like the Oriole’s chances even as an underdog. I expect Kramer to rebound, and have more faith in the Orioles’ offense at the moment. Sandoval appears to dodge too many bullets for my liking. There is also the momentum factor; the Orioles have plenty and the Angels, after a dismal road trip, appear to have none. Take the Orioles to steal this one.

Things are looking up in Baltimore. The Orioles have been a solid home team this year and have now won five straight games. They are getting sharp starting pitching, especially from Tylers Wells (7-4, 3.09), today’s starter. Now in his second year, Wells is starting to look like the real thing. In his last three start he has allowed just 2 runs over 16 innings. He doesn’t usually pitch past the 5th or 6th but he opposition is hitting well under .200 for the months of June and July.

The Angels would appear to be in complete disarray at this moment. They are a poor road team, they can’t hit, and other than games started my Ohtani, can’t win either. In their last 5 losses, they have managed just 6 runs. Today’s starter Reid Detmers, is just back from Triple A, after a few rough outings in June. The rookie left hander has had his moments this season, including that no hitter, but he doesn’t usually pitch for length, and has been a victim of the long ball.

With neither starter usually pitching deep, we will see some innings from the pens, and neither team has an edge in that department, I am on the Orioles today. They are showing well lately, and Wells is the better starter. The Angels continue to flounder, with a managing change providing no relief. Take the Orioles to win outright today.

Two pretty good right handers face off on Thursday when the Giants meet the Padres in their series opener. The Giants’ Webb was roughed up for 5 runs, 3 earned, in his last outing, but was very sharp in his previous 4 starts giving up just 3 runs total.

His opponent, Joe Musgrove, has slipped from the very high “Cy Young contender” perch he has held for most of the season. His last three starts have not been as impressive, and it is the long ball that has been the culprit. He has given up 5 in his last three games, more than in his previous 11 starts.

The Giants have tumbled into ineptitude, losing 6 of 7, after barely rallying vs the D-backs on Wednesday night. The 2-8 Padres aren’t much better, also hitting very poorly. The two teams are hitting 26th and 27th respectively over their last 15 games. Both bullpens usually are close to the MLB standard, but are struggling mightily lately with ERAs approaching or at 6.00 in their last 10 games.

Thursday's total is very low, but neither starter has been at his best, and even though neither team is hitting well, both bullpens are struggling badly.  I think there is a pretty good chance that one of these starters will not perform up to standard, and the relievers will drag this one over.  Take the total to go over 6.5

The Royals knocked off the mighty Astros on Wednesday, but don’t count on two straight wins for KC. The Astros are hitting lefties at a .310 clip recently. No disrespect, but Royals starter Bubic is a struggling southpaw at the moment. Opposing hitters roughed him up to the tune of .302 in June. Not a good combo if you are a Royals fan. Bubic doesn’t pitch for length and the Royals’ bullpen has struggled all year, managing just a 5.35 ERA in their last 10 games.

The Astros are tops of the Bops at the moment, hitting for a massive OPS. They are a very good home team, and have Verlander on the mound. It is not like Verlander never has a bad game (he has had two this year), but he is as dependable as any pitcher, and held the Yankees and the Mets to 1 and 0 runs in his last two starts. He pitches for great length, and the Astros relief corps are the best in the business.

The Royals are a very poor road team, and dismal as a road underdog. This matchup is a mismatch, and the odds-makers agree. Anything can and will happen in an MLB game, but I am on the Astros on the run line on this one. Take Houston at - 1 1/2.

Ohtani is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs and striking out 30 batters. Talk about finding his form! He starts against a fair to middling offensive team in the Marlins, who ran out their ace in a 2-1 win on Wednesday. This could very easily be another low scoring affair, although Rogers, the Marlins starter, has been very uneven this year. More was expected of Rogers after a breakout year , but June was not kind to him, with just 21+ innings pitched, a 7.06 ERA, and some very hefty base on balls totals over 5 starts. There has been some improvement in his last couple of outings. Is he beginning to see the light?

The Angels don’t usually hit lefties well, but lately they haven’t hit much of anything. They added just a single in the runs-for column yesterday, bringing their total to just 5 runs in 4 games. Miami’s pen has been consistently good and mopped up well for Alcantara last night. The Angels’ bullpen has struggled, but Angels wins are rare , so expect the best available Angels relievers in this one. Ohtani may not need much support given the way he is pitching. I expect Rogers to show a little better and Ohtani to cruise through the Marlins. Take the Under.

The 6-4 Twins still have those heavy bats, and are getting solid pitching lately. Their fine rookie Joe Ryan struggled somewhat in his return from the IL, but appears to be back in fine form after a 7 inning 1 run 7 K outing in his last start.

The Twins are a good road team and generally are tough on right-handers, but the face a fine one In the Sox’ Lance Lynn on Wednesday. It took Lynn a few starts to get it right after a protracted period on the disabled list, but he got it right in his fourth start, a 6 inning shutout. It doesn’t look like he will pitch for length quite yet, but it does seem that Lynn has found his form..

The White Sox are fine for average but they are lacklustre for power, especially lately. They are well below .500 at home, and are just 26th vs right-handed pitching this year. While it is easy to be high on Lynn, I am a big fan of Ryan this year, and it is good to seem him fully recovered from Covid. This one could be close, as the odds would suggest, but the Twins are a more powerful club and are getting much better relief support from their pen. Look for the Twins to squeak this one out on the road.

The Reds/Mets game on Tuesday features a couple of starters just back from the IL. Mets’ very fine right hander Scherzer looked good in his last rehab start, and was great before his injury this season. He has been there and done it all; a sound bet for an easy return.

He is up against Reds’ young left-hander Lodolo who was 1 for 3 as far as quality starts go in his rookie year before injury. He also looked strong in rehab assignments, but is hardly a seasoned vet, so he is much more of a question mark on Tuesday.

The Mets’ struggling starters can use the boost of Scherzer’s return, but their bullpen has been pulling its weight lately. Not so the Reds, whose pen has a wretched collective ERA of near 10.0 /L10 games.

The Reds are a poor home side at just 13-25 to date. The Mets have struggled to get the bats going lately but woke up against the Reds’ Greene yesterday. Tuesday could be the day for a big breakout, especially against the scrambling Reds’ bullpen. Neither starter will likely pitch for length after returning from the IL. Watch the Mets win this one going away.  Take the Mets on the Run line at - 1 1/2.

The 4-6 Angels aren’t hitting up a storm lately, scoring just 4 runs in their last three games. The Marlins have won 4 straight on the road, and now return home where they are above .500 this season. They start their ace Alcantara, (8-3, 1.95) a formidable right-hander consistently pitching for length and ERA. The Angels have almost no experience against Alcantara, and could be in for a rude awaking on Tuesday.

The Angels’ mighty righty Syndergaard (3.86) has struggled somewhat in his last starts, but has generally delivered this year. It is what happens post-Syndergaard, where the trouble could begin. The bullpen has done extra duty due to short starts and has not thrived, with an ERA of 6.31 in the last week.

Alcantara doesn’t usually need a lot of support, but the Marlins’ pen has been sharp with an ERA around 2.0 of late.

Better recent offense, a much better bullpen, and arguably a better starter gives the edge to the Marlins. They are favored, but shop around, then pay the price.

The White Sox have had a disappointing first half to the season, but they’re only 4.5 games out of first place in the AL Central. Coming off a weekend sweep of the Giants, they can chop more into that deficit as they host the first place Twins on Monday, the start of a pretty important three-game series.

Last time the teams met, the Twins swept. But that was back in April. The White Sox are not only out for revenge, but also playing much better baseball now than they were two and a half months ago. I already mentioned the sweep of San Francisco over the weekend. The Sox punctuated it with a 13-4 win yesterday.

That the sweep took place in San Francisco makes the weekend result all the more impressive for Chicago. Minnesota had a chance to sweep over the weekend as well, but failed, losing at home to Baltimore on Sunday, 3-1. 

Surprisingly, the Twins are just 3-8 their last 11 division games. Dylan Bundy isn’t very good when starting on the road. The team is 2-6 in his eight away starts and you can pin that on a 6.41 ERA and 1.526 WHIP.

Johnny Cueto has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last four starts. In three career starts vs. Minnesota, he’s 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA and has 21 strikeouts in 20 innings. By the way, both of Minnesota’s wins against Baltimore over the weekend came in the final at-bat. 

Back on Thursday, I closed out June with a 10* Game of the Month winner on the Phillies. They won 14-4 behind Aaron Nola. I’m going back to the well today with Zach Wheeler, who has been every bit as effective as Nola this year. 

After winning again Friday, 5-3, the Phillies lost Saturday’s game to the Cardinals, 7-6. They succumbed to five St. Louis’ home runs, which is obviously something you shouldn’t expect to happen again.

Wheeler did allow a pair of home runs in his last start, but had previously allowed just three all season. He has a 1.85 ERA and 0.863 WHIP at home. 

Adam Wainwright is having another good year for St. Louis, but there are signs that regression may soon take hold. He’s allowed at least seven hits in each of the last five starts.

The Cardinals are only 2-6 in the +125 to +175 range on the road. The Phillies aren’t going to fall into another 5-0 hole after the first inning like they did yesterday. Take the home team!

After being swept in yesterday’s doubleheader, the Guardians now find themselves at 0-5 head to head vs. the Yankees in 2022. Of course, there are many teams that haven’t done well against the Yankees this season. But Cleveland is going to be pretty desperate to avoid the sweep today. Take them on the run line. 

Cleveland came into this series off a pair of dramatic victories over the first place Twins (both walkoffs). Even after the poor performance yesterday, the team has a winning record at home and is very much alive for the AL Central pennant.

The Yankees are only 8-8 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Jordan Montgomery is coming off two straight less than stellar outings. He allowed nine runs total and that was against Oakland and Tampa Bay. The Guardians are more respectable at the plate than those teams.

Having Triston McKenzie starting helps Cleveland’s cause Sunday as well. McKenzie has an 8-5 team start record this year, meaning the Guardians have won 8 of his 13 starts. His last two starts were also less than stellar, but both were against the same team (Minnesota).

I think the Guardians should - at the very worst - stay within a run here. An outright upset is a definite possibility. Grab the +1.5.

Both starters on Sunday have been struggling of late, but this has been a low-scoring series thus far (all Unders) and neither lineup is what you’d term “strong.” 

Kansas City is averaging only three runs/game over its last six contests, which is even worse than usual. Their season average is 3.8 runs/game. Of course, that’s better than Detroit, who is last in all of baseball at 3.0 runs/game for the season. The Tigers have scored only 11 runs in the last four games.

The first two games of the series have been a 3-1 win for the Royals and 4-3 win for the Tigers. I think the low-scoring trend will continue.

Tarik Skubal had a couple of rough starts in June for Detroit. But the last two times he’s faced Kansas City, Skubal has not allowed a run while working 9.6 innings. The Under is 4-2-1 in his home starts. 

Brady Singer for Kansas City has allowed three or fewer runs the last two times he faced the Tigers. By the way, it’s not just this series. All five times these teams have met this year, the Under has hit. The most runs scored in any of the five games was seven. Go with the Under again today.

It’s a quick turnaround for the teams here and a rematch from last week when Montreal picked up its first win of the season, in shocking fashion, with a 37-13 beatdown of Saskatchewan. Needless to say, I see things going a bit differently this time around.

The Als’ defense stepped up big last week by recording three interceptions and eight sacks. But that was at home and they were coming off a bye. There’s no rest advantage this week and the game is at Mosiac Stadium. 

Saskatchewan has already recorded two home wins in 2022. They beat Hamilton and Edmonton by a total of 34 points. 

Something that must be pointed out about last week is that total yardage was basically even.

The Roughriders are definitely the better team in this matchup and come from the much stronger division. I believe we’re getting an oddsmakers’ discount here because of last week’s result. Lay those points.

Oakland won Friday’s game 3-1 - as a big underdog - and I think they’re worth a shot again Saturday, albeit on the run line against Seattle. While the A’s had previously lost four in a row, including the opener in Seattle, remember that they were very competitive against the Yankees earlier this week - despite not picking up a win.

Paul Blackburn starting today’s game definitely helps our cause. This right-hander is having a good season, particularly on the road where he’s 5-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 1.060 WHIP. Blackburn faced Seattle once before this season and not only did he pick up the win (4-2), but allowed just one hit in 5.3 innings. 

The Mariners have an 18-20 record at home, which has translated into a loss of 5.6 units. 

The thing about the A’s lineup is that it has been a lot better on the road. At home they average a rather pathetic 2.3 runs/game. On the road, that average jumps to 4.0, which isn’t all that different from the 4.1 runs/game Seattle averages at home. Again, the run line might come into play here as well.

Or maybe not as George Kirby starts for the Mariners and he has a 5.54 ERA in five previous home starts. Kirby allowed seven runs the last time we saw him and that was versus Baltimore. Take the +1.5. 

Revenge spot for the Nationals, who are 1-8 against the Marlins this season and were swept in the most recent series. Two things are different this time, however. One is that the Nationals are playing a lot better. They’ve won six of their last nine games. Two is that this time they are at home. 

Miami is simply not very good away from home. Their road record is 15-24. While they did come up big for me the other night, winning 4-3 at St. Louis, the Marlins had previously lost the first two games of that series. 

Over their last seven games, the Marlins are averaging only 2.7 runs. The only time in those seven games where they scored more than three runs was the last one, when they scored four. 

That’s good news for Josiah Gray, who already has a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his most recent three starts. Somehow the Nationals have managed to lose all three. But going back even further, Gray has allowed no more than two runs in any of his previous starts. He’s due for a win here. 

Lefty Trevor Rogers seems to be the “weak link” of the Marlins rotation as he has a 5.86 ERA and 1.635 WHIP this season. The team is 4-10 in his 14 starts and only one time has Rogers made it through a full six innings. That was back in April. Look for Gray and the Nationals to get their revenge. 

Two of baseball’s most storied franchises meet this weekend at Wrigley Field. The Red Sox are doing much better than the Cubs in 2022, which is really not all that surprising. The visitors enter this three-game series at 43-33 and tied for the top Wild Card in the American League. Meanwhile, the Cubs are one of six teams that has a winning percentage below .400.

But I believe the best value on today’s matchup is on the Over. The reason being, I just don’t have much faith in either starter. 

The Cubs’ Adrian Sampson has bounced back and forth between Triple A and the big league club. His career numbers at this level just aren’t that great and he should struggle vs. a team that’s top six in scoring on the road and hitting .291 over the past week.

Rich Hill is nothing more than an average starter for the Red Sox. He comes in with a 4.23 ERA. The thing about the Cubs is they have been putting runs on the board recently, scoring 6.4 per game over the last seven while batting .304! 

\The Over is 4-0 in the Cubs' last four home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times the Red Sox have been off a game where they gave up five or more runs. They were 6-5 winners on Wednesday.

The Phillies are now facing the prospect of getting swept in their own ballpark as they’ve lost the first two games of this series with the Braves by scores of 5-3 and 4-1. That leaves them not only five games back of Atlanta for second place in the NL East but also eight games back of first in the division. Not to mention the Phillies are now three games off the pace in the Wild Card chase.

The lack of offense we’ve seen from the Phillies these last two games is a bit concerning. But the team should have no concerns on the mound Thursday with Aaron Nola starting. Nola enters today with a 2.98 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. In his last four starts, he’s gone a total of 30 innings and allowed just three runs. 

Yes, the Braves have gone 21-5 in June. But the Phillies are 18-8 and also 35-17 the last 52 times they’ve lost the first two games of a series. 

Nola has had success in the past vs. Atlanta, going 13-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 26 starts. The last time he faced them was on May 26th. That game, which was in Atlanta, saw Nola go 8.3 innings and allow only one run on five hits. He also had 10 strikeouts. The Phillies ended up winning 4-1. 

Ian Anderson is starting here for the Braves. His WHIP is a little concerning, especially the last three starts where that number is 1.704. Two of the three starts saw Anderson last just four innings and give up four runs. As hot as Atlanta has been, trust me that Nola will be the difference maker in this game. 

Ok, enough is enough. Time for the Dodgers to beat the Rockies. Been a bit of a shocker this week at Coors Field with the road team dropping the first two games. While the Dodgers have been swept four times this year, I can’t see it happening here.

Urias has been excellent this season, even though he’s 5-6 for LA. His ERA is 2.48. Over his last three starts, Urias has allowed just four runs and eight hits in 18 innings with 25 strikeouts. 

The Rockies are actually 4-1 vs. the Dodgers this year. But coming into this series they were just a .500 team at home and 11 games below .500 overall. 

Marquez has struggled at home for the Rocks with a 6.70 ERA and 1.624 WHIP. That’s in eight starts. Colorado should feel fortunate that they’ve gone 5-3 in those eight starts, considering Marquez’s numbers. 

Even after yesterday’s result, the Rockies are only 4-14 after a win.

I like Miami here. They’ve got Alcantara on the hill and he’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball. With Alcantara carrying a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, you’d think that the Marlins would be better than 9-6 in his 15 starts this year. They’re not, but this price is too tempting to pass up.

Now the “elephant in the room” is Miami’s 1-10 record vs. St. Louis going back to last year. They’ve lost the first two games at Busch Stadium this week, 9-0 and 5-3. But they were expected to. Oddsmakers might still consider them an underdog today, but I believe that’s a mistake. Alcantara alone can be the difference maker. 

St. Louis has Pallante pitching and he’s still unproven with just four starts under his belt. Three of his four starts have come against the Reds or Cubs. 

Alcantara has never beaten the Cardinals, but does have a 0.99 ERA in four career starts against them. He’s allowed just 18 hits in those four starts with 29 strikeouts in 27.3 innings. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, two of St. Louis’ best hitters, are a combined 3 for 22 with eight strikeouts lifetime vs. Alcantara. 

The Marlins are 5-0 the last five times they’ve dropped the first two games of a series. Make it 6-0! 

Oakland has been surprisingly competitive in this series. They led 5-3 on Monday, going into the seventh inning, before a six-run Yankees’ rally turned the tide. Last night’s game, where I had the Under, ended up being a 2-1 final. Even though the Yankees have had a bevy of close results recently (five of last 10 games decided by one run), anything other than a blowout win today seems unlikely. After all, this is a matchup of the teams with the best and worst records in all of baseball.

The Yanks are 12-2 in Jameson Taillon starts this year and 6-0 the last six. Taillon’s teammates had  to bail him out after a subpar outing last time, but that was against Houston. Offensively, Oakland is last in baseball in just about every major statistical category.

So far the Yankees are 21-5 in June. They are winning by an average margin of 2.1 runs/game at home for the year. 

The A’s are 5-19 this month. They lose by an average of 1.4 runs/game for all of 2022. Cole Irvin will start this afternoon for them. Each of his previous eight trips to the mound, the team has taken a loss. 

The Yankees are 19-7 in games vs. left-handed starters. Irvin and the A’s are no match for them.

The two bottom teams in the NL Central meet this week at Wrigley Field. Both teams have been outscored by 77 runs this season. That’s not a good differential by any means, but it’s better than the third place Pirates, who are -100 in that department.

The Reds come in at 25-47 and are in last place in the division. But they just won two of three out in San Francisco and are a respectable 22-25 after a horrible start to the season. The Cubs have lost 15 of 20. 

Luis Castillo is putting up solid numbers for Cincy, he’s just not been racking up wins. Consider there’s been only one start all season where Castillo allowed more than three earned runs. It was his last one and that was against the Dodgers. Castillo has a 0.97 WHIP on the road.

Keegan Thompson has turned in consecutive quality starts. But the two starts before that saw him allow 12 runs in 3 ⅔ innings. 

All things considered, I believe the Reds to be a solid value in the opener of this three-game series.

The Blue Jays were big winners in Monday’s opener, 7-2, but let’s not overlook the fact they have a big edge on the mound with Gausman going against Seabold. That’s not the case today when Wacha faces Stripling.

Before losing yesterday’s game, the Red Sox had won seven in a row and were 19-4 for the month. They’ve zipped past Toronto in the AL East, though now have just a half-game lead for second place after Monday’s result. 

Wacha will pitch better than Seabold did yesterday for Boston. Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA and has one of the only two Red Sox wins over Toronto in 2022. Back on April 27th, he allowed just one run and four hits in six innings. Overall, Boston is 9-2 in Wacha’s last 11 starts.

Stripling has just two quality starts this season and he came out on the losing end vs. Wacha on April 27th. Stripling didn’t pitch all that poorly, but the Jays still lost 7-1. He has a 6.62 ERA in seven career starts vs. Boston.

The Red Sox have not lost back to back games all month. 

Oakland thought they had the Yankees beat on Monday as they led 5-3 going into the bottom of the seventh. Had they held on (spoiler alert: they did not), it would have been one of the biggest upsets of the entire MLB season. 

The Yankees stormed back with six runs in the bottom of the seventh and that was all the scoring for the game. Expect Tuesday to be lower-scoring. While the A’s scored five runs last night and have totaled 19 in their last three games, they remain last in the league in team batting average, slugging and on base percentage. They’re second to last in runs, producing only 3.2 per game.

Montas should limit the damage the Yankees do, however. The Under is 10-4 in Montas starts so far. He tossed eight shutout innings in his most recent start and allowed just two hits.

Sears should have a solid start for the Yankees. His only previous start saw him turn in five shutout innings. The Yankees bullpen is of course really solid as well.

Here at Yankee Stadium, the Pinstripes are allowing an average of just 2.8 runs/game. Take the Under in this one.

The White Sox went one and three in their series vs the Orioles, scoring just 3 runs in the three losses. They have a very poor record vs the Angels, even worse when facing them at home. The Angels are 5-5 L10, and have been in a profound and surprising funk on offense, from which they appear to be emerging. Neither of Monday’s pitchers is coming off a quality start. The difference is Syndergaard the Angels’ starter gave up just 2 ER in his previous 2 starts, while Giolito has given up 19 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. Something has definitely gone sideways with Giolito’s mechanics. He has gone from a 2.57 ERA in April to a 9.00 ERA in June.

Monday’s game is a great opportunity for some of those slumping giants on the Angels’ side to break out, and for an aging Syndergaard to strut his stuff. He was very good last outing until a blowout eighth inning. I am on the side of the Angels today. L.A. To win outright.

The 5-5 Rangers, on the road vs the Royals, have historically had very good success in Kansas City. The Royals have been known to struggle at home, winning just 1 of 4 games lately, including losing their latest series against the A’s.

Bubic (7.41 ERA) starts for the Royals today He has struggled mightily this year but has improved in June, lowering his ERA to 3.92 for the month. He is, however, winless at home. He faces Martin Perez (1.96 ERA), a surprisingly effective left hander this year. He doesn’t overpower, but has shown tremendous control. His last two starts have been especially good.

The Rangers’ bats have been ripping into left handed pitching lately and are getting very solid work from their bullpen. The Royals generally struggle vs left handers and their pen has performing badly of late. The Rangers are favored today, and rightly so, I believe. I am taking the Perez and the road team to steal a victory today.

The “never say die” Lightning have stretched the series to a sixth game at home, on the backs of Vasilevskiy and a tight style of play. They have managed to control the Av’s offense to the tune of just 2 goals allowed in their last three games, much better than I expected. They have the advantage of the final change tonight, and may have the Av’s wondering just what they have to do to beat Tampa’s goal-tender.

Kuemper has played well but not at the same standard as the Tampa net-minder. The Av’s gave up twice the number of penalties in game five and it burned them. They too will have to play a tighter game; their success came when they limited the Lightning’s shot totals in games one and two. Those totals have crept up closer to 30 lately. Kuemper’s play can’t stand the impact of too many mistakes.

I expect to see an even tighter game today. I am sticking with the total, but have been burned on the over. Find the highest available line tonight and take the under.

Two very good teams with a history meet up today for the deciding game of the series. The 7-3 Dodgers are on the road, where they are a cool 25-13 this season. They dominate right-handed pitching. After a very good run, the Braves are just 6-4 in their last ten, but are hitting up a storm, tops in the league over the last two weeks at .261/.835 OPS.

Young Braves right-hander Strider (3.40 ERA) starts for just the sixth time. 3 of the first 4 were very good, but he came back to earth in his last outing, giving up 6 runs in just 3.2 innings. He faces some stiff opposition in right-handed Dodgers starter, Tony Gonsolin (9-0, 1.58). Gonsolin is off his “worst” start of the year, when he allowed 2 runs over five innings. Opposing hitters are just .115 against him in June.

The Dodgers have the top offense in the league for the season, but have slipped to 6th lately, still a very impressive .267/.788 OPS. They also have the edge in relief pitching with a very low ERA of 2.43 lately. The Dodgers are just a small favorite today, but Strider is very much still a work in progress; Gonsolin has the proven goods. Take the Dodgers to steal a win on the road.

The Red Sox have 6 straight victories, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are getting great hitting and very good starting pitching. Left-hander Hill has not been one of their best starters this year. He doesn’t pitch for length and he doesn’t shut anyone down, but at 42 years, he still gets the job done. He will likely give up a couple runs against the hard hitting Guardians.

The Guardians were hot until they met up with the Sox. They’ve lost a pair at home and will need a win from Civale to avoid the Sox sweep. Civale, a solid starter last year, has struggled mightily this season then went on the IL in May. He has just one start in June, and looked very good in a five inning 2 run, 7 strikeout effort against the Twins.

Considering these two teams’ hitting abilities and Civale’s ERA, the over would look like a good possibility, and today’s total is high, but there are a couple of contra-indicators here. The Guardians are poor against left handed pitching. Civale’s stuff looked good in his final start before injury and in his last one, and he has been a sound starter in the past. The Guardians are getting good relief pitching.

I favor the Under on this game. It is just too high a total in my opinion. Shop around before you buy!

The Nationals have won 2 of 3 after a long stretch of futility. The Rangers are 5-5, taking a pair from the Phillies before losing to the Nat’s in the first game of their home series. Josiah Gray (6-4, 3.95) starts for the Nationals, and he has 4 straight premium appearances, with a miniscule ERA of 0.53 in that time. Gray has cut down dramatically on the long ball, allowing just 1 in June.  He faces Matt Bush today.  Bush, a reliever, will make a spot start in what will likely be a bullpen day for the Rangers.

Both teams are middle of the pack in offense lately. The Rangers generally have the edge in relief pitching, but Washington’s pen has been better of late. The Rangers pen has faltered when relied upon for a protracted number of innings, allowing 30 runs in the last 3 games when expected to cover 4 or more straight innings.

Washington is a small underdog today, but Gray has been more than effective lately. The Nationals are better on the road, and unfortunately for Texas, so are the Rangers. Look for the Nationals to take game 2 of the series, winning outright.

The Av’s at home were a force at home this season. They are better rested and probably healthier, if the rumors around the Lightning are true. Kadri is back and made an impact, and Kuemper looked much better, especially in the early going when the Avalanche were badly outshot. Even with an early goal against and the Lightning all in, the Avalanche managed to turn the tide, and were back to their dynamic selves by the finish.

It was a demoralizing loss for the Lightning, and I don’t know if they have a road win in them, but they won’t give up easily, and there is always the Vasilevskiy factor to consider.

The odds on the Av’s are very high. I am sticking with the total in Game Five. At home, with the better energy, and the Cup in sight, I expect Colorado to be on fire on offense from the opening faceoff. Game Five could be a more wide open affair. If the Av’s score early, the Lightning will be force to follow. Shop around and take the total to go over.

Don’t look now, but the Pirates are on a roll, winning 4 of their last 5 games. And putting up some decent numbers on offense. Meanwhile the Rays are struggling at just 3-7, and have some very serious injury issues on offense. The Rays are hitting just .228/.646 in the last two weeks, while the Pirates have “surged” to 25th place, with a .646 OPS.

Pirates’ starter Keller (4.72 ERA) has turned his season around in June with three straight quality starts and an ERA of 2.08 over 17 innings. Young Rays’ left-hander Springs had 7 of 8 very impressive starts and an exceptionally low ERA, but returned to earth in his last appearance with a 4 run in 4+ inning effort.

There has never been a bettter time to beat up on the Rays. The Pirates are a very serious underdog today, and with Keller and the team on a roll, I like them to at least stay close today. Take the Pirates on the run line, at + 1 ½.

Off a sweep of the Rockies, the Marlins face the Mets for the second time in three series, this time at home. They were 1-2 in New York, with Alcantara, today’s starter, getting the only victory. He has been lights out this season, a true ace, pitching at least into the eighth in his last three starts, and giving up just 4 runs in 24+ innings.

The 6-4 Mets struggled vs Houston, losing a pair, and haven’t been quite as steady on offense lately. Their OPS has slipped to just .633 in recent days, and they have had a few very short appearances from their starters, putting some pressure on the bullpen. Taijuan Walker has been an exception. After some mixed results, be is on a bit of a roll, allowing just 2 runs over 12+ innings in his last two starts, striking out 19!

Both pitchers were successful in the last Mets/Marlins series. I am banking on similar results today. The total is relatively low today. I am wagering that it will go even lower. Take the Under.

The Phillies have lost 3 of 4, scoring just 7 runs total. Ranger Suarez (5-4, 4.43) starts on Thursday and unlike last year he has been pretty average this season. In his last two starts he has as many walks as strikeouts, and has given up 7 runs, 5 earned, over 10 innings. He is up against one of the best in baseball at the moment, the Padres’ right-hander Joe Musgrove. At 8-0, with an ERA of 1.59, he has pitched 21 innings in June, giving up just 2 runs and lowering his ERA to 0.86 for the month. He is just off the Covid list.

The hometown Padres (7-3) have yet to lose with Musgrove on the mound, and just swept the Diamondbacks. Led by a very hot Machado, the Padres are a surprise 2nd in offense over the last 2 weeks, are 10-3 as a home favorite, and are 16-7 vs left-handed pitching. The usually hard-hitting Phillies have had a rough week or so, hitting just .200, with an OPS of .608. Don’t look for them to get back on track vs Musgrove or the Padres’ bullpen either. I am wagering on the Padres to win on Thursday.

The Astros are on the road vs the Yankees today. They have been very hot recently, limiting the opposition to 3 runs or less in 6 of 7 games, and winning all 6 of them. They are a solid road team, with good success vs right- handed pitching. Both of these offenses are in the top ten for the season. The Astros have surpassed the Yankees in recent games, and have their very good bullpen surging to a very low ERA recently.

Houston’s starter Lefty Framber Valdez (7-3, 2.78) has had a very solid season, but has given up 3, 3, and 2 runs in his last 3 games and seen his ERA climb somewhat in June to 3.50. He has pitched very well on the road.

Right-hander Jameson Taillon (8-1, 2.70) has been equally impressive, but like Valdez, has seen his ERA climb in June, after sandwiching shutouts around a pair of 3 and 4 run outings. Taillon has not pitched for as much length lately, with just 14+ innings in his last three games. This would not be significant considering the Yankees’ formidable bullpen, but New York has some injuries in the relief pitcher column, and the pen has not been as sharp in recent games.

The Yankees have been masterful at home, and formidable vs left handed pitching (18-7). This should be a tight well-pitched game today. The Yankees are a favorite, but I am going with the underdog today. The Astros recent offensive surge and much better bullpen will decide this one. Take the Astros to steal this one.

What a difference home ice has meant in this series! It would be easy to blame Kuemper for the Game Three loss; a .773 Save %is unacceptable at any time. A finger can also be pointed at the Av’s defense, who after a brilliant effort in Game 2, allowed double the number of shots and had obvious gaffes and missed coverages. More disciplined disciplined play is vital; the Av’s allowed far too many PP opportunities. Kudos must go to the Lightning. A proud and experienced team answered back in a big way, with a much better game from their offense and from Vasilevskiy.

What can we expect in Game Four? The Av’s goaltending is the biggest issue, but I expect a much better effort from the Colorado defense. I don’t expect to see the Av’s held to 2 goals, Vasilevskiy or no. If the Lightning can deliver another effort similar to Game 3’s, a second home win is not out of the question. This is the first time in the play-offs that the Av’s have been shut down, and I expect a huge response tonight. A winner is very much up in the air, but I was burned badly in underestimating Tampa Bay at home, and I am not about to be struck twice. I am sticking to the total tonight. Take Game Four to go over.

The 2-8 Tigers are struggling and down a pair in their road series vs the Red Sox. They are woeful on the road this year and very poor vs right-handed pitching. They have been hitting for average lately but just can’t seem to score enough runs for a victory.

The Red Sox are the reverse at 8-2, and while their bats have cooled slightly, they are still getting the job done. They are a solid home team, and dominant (12-4) vs left handers. The Sox start Michael Wacha, who seems fully recovered from his brief stint on the IL. Three of his last four starts have been very sharp, and his ERA is just 1.98 in June. Wacha has been very sharp at home, with a 1.03 ERA in Fenway this season.

His opponent, lefty Tariq Skubal (3.13 ERA) has had some very good starts this season, but he has gone downhill progressively in his last 2 starts, allowing 4, and then 5 earned runs. His ERA has climbed to 4.70 in June. He has had no run support in his last two starts; the Tigers have been shutout in both games.

All roads point to a Red Sox victory, and I am taking the favorite today. The Tigers’ pen, one of their stronger suits this year, has not been successful of late. I’ll take the Red Sox’ offense any day. Take Boston for a home victory today.

The Phillies have lost their last two games, including their road opener vs. the Rangers, but have their ace on the mound to set things straight. Wheeler (6-3, 2.69) struggled a bit early in the season, but has been much improved, especially in June. He has a 1.42 ERA for the month, with 20 strikeouts to just 2 base on balls and very low hit totals.

The 6-4 Rangers can struggle at home and vs right-handed pitching this year. They have had little success vs Wheeler in the past, but have had much the better of the Phillies at home in the past. Jon Gray (4.27 ERA) starts for the Rangers. Gray also has had a good June, with two very good outings after a 5 run in 5 inning start. Opposing hitters have an average of just .193 for the month, although walks have been a bit of an issue. Gray has an ugly ERA in the first inning.

Both starters have thrown for 6 or 7 innings lately, which is significant because neither bullpen has been very strong, especially in the last week. The Phillies have the edge on offense. Wheeler and to a slightly lesser degree, Gray are capable of a quality start, but both of the bullpens have managed to spoil a few good outings lately. Wheeler has had very good run support this season.  I am wagering on a superior start from Wheeler, and the Phillies'offense and pen to pull through.  Take Wednesday's game to go to the Phillies.

This series got underway Monday with the Padres winning 4-1. But let’s not forget that before that, San Diego was swept out in Colorado over the weekend. I think Arizona, who has the better starting pitcher going on Tuesday, is a great value. 

It’s Zac Gallen going for the Diamondbacks here today. He’s got a 2.91 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The team has won 8 of his 12 starts overall. This includes the last one where Gallen would go seven innings and allow just two runs. He only allowed two hits as well and issued no walks. 

Starting for San Diego here will be Sean Manaea. He allowed five runs in his last start and that came against the Cubs, who are not good. Not only did Manaea last only four innings, but he gave up two home runs as well. I don’t think Manaea can be trusted as a favorite, even a small one.

Though they won yesterday, the big news for the Padres was losing Manny Machado to a sprained left ankle. The team hopes he won’t be out long-term, but he’s going to miss this game. Machado led not just the team in almost every offensive category, but all of baseball in both on base percentage and slugging.

Take the underdog here.

The Pirates crushed the Cubs yesterday 12-1 and have now won back to back games for just the second time this month. Tuesday sees them sending out their best starting pitcher, Roansy Contreras, and he’s certainly due for a win, especially facing a Cubs team that has dropped 12 of its last 14 games.

These are two of the worst teams in baseball. But I look at Contreras as the difference maker in this matchup. He is still winless after five starts, but the team did win the last time they had him on the mound and that was against St. Louis as a +175 underdog. It’s a much weaker opponent they’re facing here.

In his first four starts, Contreras allowed only three runs and one was unearned.

The Cubs are now being outscored by almost two full runs per game on the road - where they allow 5.7 per game. It’s also not helping that over the last 11 days, the offense has scored 1 or 0 runs six different times.

Swarmer is the starter tonight for the Cubs. He’s allowed 10 runs over his previous two starts and tied a rather dubious franchise mark when he allowed six home runs against the Yankees. Play the favorite here.

It wasn’t just Vasilevskiy who looked off in Game 2. The Avs were relentless and so fast on the counter-attack that the LIghtning looked very old in pursuit of the puck. The Lightning and Vasilevskiy are expected to rebound at home, but 7-0 is a long way to come back from. The Av’s were great on defense, limiting Tampa to just 16 shots. Kuemper looked fine, if not heavily tested. The defense in front of him played an admirably tight game of play-off style hockey, and the team never let down as they did in game 1. Makar broke out in a big way on offense with a short handed and a power play goal. Could McKinnon be next?

I don’t like the Lightnings’ chances in Game 3, irregardless of their past abilities to battle back. I do expect a better game from their often brilliant goalie, and I don’t expect another shutout from Kuemper, but if the Av’s keep playing with the same intensity, it will be a short series. Braden Point is not back in form. The Lightning looked tired, the Av’s, after that long lay off, looked very fresh and inspired, ready to get that monkey off their back. Take the Avalanche to win away.

After the Avs' shelling of Vasilevskiy and the Lightning on the road in Game two, a home-side rebound is expected from Tampa. No one expected seven goals against from the “best goalie on the planet” any more than a 16 shot shutout from Kuemper. The scoring chances in game two were completely lopsided; the Lightning will do everything in their power to slow Colorado down on home ice, and with the final change will at least have the player match up they want. I expect a better game from Vasilevskiy and tighter play from Tampa, but the Lightning are going to be awfullyy hard to slow down.

Game 2 was a masterful demonstration of defense by the Avs. I expect them to attempt more of the same disciplined play on defense, but I am sure the Lightning will be better in Game three and test Kuemper more often. A total of over 5.5 is available.  In this case, take the over.

The Marlins are just 1-4 in their last 5 games, but they start the ace on Sunday to turn things around. Alcantara (6-2, 1.69 ERA) has been as impressive as anyone this season, pitching for length (23 + innings/L3 games), and holding a 0.76 ERA in June. He gives the Marlins a chance to win every outing, and the Marlins to date have responded well.

Bassitt starts for the Mets. After a month of poor to fair outings, Bassitt re-found his form in his last start, throwing an 8 inning shutout. Bassitt claims to have made the necessary changes and has had some great appearances this season. The Mets’ pen has been excellent lately. While Alcantara may not need much support, he won’t likely get it anyway. The Marlins’ pen has been beyond bad lately, but they do seem to save their best games for Alcantara’s starts.

The Marlins are well down the list in offense for the season, and are hitting particularly poorly, with a sub-.600 OPS in their last week.

I expect Alcantara to continue with his present form, limiting a good Mets’ offense for much of the game. I expect Bassitt to respond with another solid start as well. We haven’t seen an over in Alcantara’s last 5 starts. I don’t think we will seen one on Sunday. Take the Marlins and Mets to go under.

The visiting Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and while their bats might have cooled off slightly in the Rays series, they thumped the Jays in the first game of the series, and got to a very tough Manoah yesterday. The pitching has been impressive, and today’s starter is one of the reasons why. Severino (2.80 ERA) has been mostly very steady and a strikeout machine this year. He has an ERA of just 0.69 in June. He did give up 3 ER in just 4.2 innings vs the Jays the last time they met, not one of his better starts.

The 5-5 Jays are a streaky team and have seen their potent offense drop off recently. They have very serious and unexpected pitching issues at the moment in both starters and relievers. Today’s starter Kikuchi (4.80 ERA) has not been effective recently, with short starts and a very high opposing batting average of .359. The Jays’ relievers has not been getting the job done, and cannot match the Yankees top of the line bullpen.

The Yankees are just a modest favorite today. This very likely will be an easy win for them. Take the Yankees to win. Again.

What do I expect in game two of the Stanley Cup final?  A tighter game, with Tampa Bay attempting to control more of the Av's "turn on the afterburners" style of play.  A better game from Vasilevskiy, who also took a game to get going vs. the Rangers. The Lightning allowed 37 shots and Vasilevskiy was under .900 in save %.  The Lightning can't win with that kind of performance from their star attraction.

For the Av's, they will need to avoid a 2nd period slump, but they held the Lightning to just 23 shots, so they can continue with more of the same, and hope for a better performance from Kuemper.  Kuemper had a long lay-off previous to Game one, and is capable of a much better game.  It is easy to underestimate the Av's defense.  They were 9th in the regular season, and started to play a tough play-off style in meaningful games late in the regular season.

The Av's are a moderate favorite today, but if Vasilevskiy plays to his capabilities, an Avalanche  win is certainly not assured.  I can't see the Avs breaking this game open, and I expect Kuemper to rebound.  The best bet today is still the total.  Take the Avs and Lightning to go under 6 goals.

The Rays have lost 4 straight, including the opener vs the Orioles last night. The issue has been their hitting; they have allowed just 9 runs in their last4 games, but have scored a paltry 4 times. Today’s starter, Jeffrey Springs (1.45 ERA) now has 7 starts under his belt since switching from reliever to starter, and has yet to give up more than 2 runs. Now reasonably stretched out out, he has pitched into the 6th in his last 2 starts, giving up a total of 0 runs.

The 6-4 Orioles just took a series from the Jays, but today’s starter Kyle Bradish (6.86 ERA) is not their best bet for a second straight win. He showed some promise in early June, but was roughed up by the Jays in his last game. Opposing batters are teeing off to a tune of .333.

The Orioles’ bats have shown some clout lately, but have and likely will continue to struggle vs Springs. The Rays’ relievers are in “total shut down” mode with an ERA of 1.83 in their last 10 games. The Orioles pen has been barely OK at 4.08 ERA lately.

I am on the Rays to rebound today and open up on offense vs Bradish and the Orioles. Take the Rays to win outright.

The Cubs broke two streaks in their surprise 1-0 win on Friday; their own very lengthy losing streak and the Braves’ even longer win streak. Left-hander Justin Steele (4.33 ERA) tries for two straight Cubs win, and if he continues as he has pitched in June, it could happen. He has had a pair of 7 inning, 1 run outings lately after some rough starts in the end of May.

He faces right-hander, Kyle Wright (7-3, 2.57 ERA) who has been a very effective starter for the Braves this year. Wright has given up 2, 3, and 0 runs in his last 3 starts, with a total of 22 innings pitched. He is a strikeout master this year, with 80 to date.

With the exception of Friday, the Cubs’ pitching has been profoundly bad. Steele has been better than anyone else, but turning things over to the bullpen has been fraught lately. The Braves, again with the exception of Friday, have been tearing it up on offense, and have an exceptionally good relief corps at the moment.  It woulddn't surprise me if Steele matches up well with Wright, but sooner or later the  game will have to go to the relievers.  Take Atlanta to win outright.

The 6-4 Twins are on a tear lately on offense, hitting .280/.824 OPS in their last ten games. Today’s starter Smeltzer (2.38 ERA) has been a good news story for the Twins. With 6 starts under his belt this season, he has taken a step forward and held batters to a .203 batting average.

The Twins have roughed up some good starters lately and the D-backs’ Bumgarner could be next in line. May was a cruel month for him, giving up 15 runs and 7 HR. The poor play continued into June, although he bounced back in his last start. He hasn’t thrown for his customary length lately.

The D-backs are not a good hitting team, and this game will likely come down to the better offense. We seem, unfortunately, to be witnessing the beginning of the end of the line for MadBum. Smeltzer, now healthy, has been much better than expected. Go with the favorite today and take the Twins to win.

We’re rolling with Boston here to keep the season alive and force a deciding Game 7 in the NBA Finals. This will be the first time the Celtics are coming off back to back losses since the end of March, which was the regular season. They had been 7-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs off a loss, before losing Game 5 at Golden State, 104-94 as four-point underdogs.

Tonight, I think we’ll see the Celtics shoot a lot better than they did in Game 5. They were just 41.3% from the field on Monday, 34.4% from three. Being back at home obviously helps in that regard. 

However, his game being in Boston may help the Celtics out more defensively. They allow only 103.1 points/game at home. Golden State’s scoring defense goes to 108.9 on the road, up from 103.0 at home. 

Surprisingly, the Warriors are only 26-24 SU on the road. They will probably shoot better from three-point land tonight compared to Game 5 (when they were just 9 of 40 as a team and Steph Curry was 0 for 9). But that alone does not guarantee success. 

The Celtics have not lost three straight games since late December. They are at home, with their season on the line, tonight. When off a double digit loss, they are 10-3 ATS this season. Also, they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs when trailing in the series. Lay the points in Game 6! 

The Nationals were swept by the Braves, giving up an average of 9 runs a game in the series. They now face the high-flying Phillies at home. Washington has serious issues with their starting pitching, with many very short poor starts lately. Their bullpen has not been effective and is overused of late. Thursday’s starter, left-hander Patrick Corbin, has a couple of 6 inning starts at least. If you catch Corbin on a good day, he can give you a quality start, but the reverse is also true. At 3-8 and with an ERA of 6.65, there have been all to many poor outings this year.

The Phillies are a top five offense for the season, and are even better lately, with an OPS of .876. Today’s starter Wheeler (2.83 ERA) is in good form of late, with an ERA of 1.61 in his last 4 starts. He has more than a strikeout an inning to date, and consistently gives 6 or more innings. The Phillies’ bullpen always seems to be sore point, and that is certainly true lately. They are at least rested, and have been able to finish when a starter gives them some innings.

Look for the Phillies’ offense to run up the score vs Corbin and the bullpen to hold on post-Wheeler.

The Phillies are a heavy favorite today, but I am comfortable taking them on the run line at – 1 ½.

The 4-6 Rockies are back in Coors Field after a seven game road trip. The Rockies at home are a different beast. They win more often and their offense is unbelievably better; 4th in the league at home, and a distant 28th when on the road. They have lost 2 straight to the Guardians, and send out right-hander Chad Kuhl to stop the bleeding. Kuhl was badly roughed up in his last start by the Padres, and has been uneven this year, although his two previous starts were each 6 inning quality appearances. Kuhl is the rare pitcher who, so far, pitches better at home in Colorado.

Young right-hander Triston McKenzie starts for the Guardians. His season has been solid, especially early, but can also be uneven. Opponents are hitting just .174 against him, but his June results have been disturbing, especially the HR totals. He has given up 10 dingers in his last 5 games after allowing just 1 in May. Not a good look for a game in Colorado.

The Guardians are just middle of the pack on offense for the season, consistently around the .707 OPS. Their pitching has been very good, including relievers, of late. The Rockies’ pen, usually in the cellar, has been surprisingly effective lately.

While the Guardians are a favorite, I am concerned about McKenzie’s home run totals and his negative trajectory this month. I expect the Rockies to have some success vs McKenzie, and avoid the sweep.  Kuhl and the Rockies will at least keep this game close.  A Colorado win would not surprsie me.  Take the Rockies on the Run line, at + 1 1/2.

Matt Swarmer, the Cubs’ rookie, has 3 starts under his belt. Two of them were impressive, and then he met up with the Yankees, and gave up 6 earned runs in five innings, allowing, count’em, 6 solo home runs. Swarmer now has given up 9 home runs in 3 games. It will be interesting to see if the rookie can regroup. He can’t look for much support from the Cubs’ bullpen today. They have staggered to an ERA of over ten in their last 10 games

The Cubs face one of the best today in the Padres’ Joe Musgrove. With an ERA of 1.15 in his last 4 starts, he has been all things this year, pitching for effectiveness, consistency and length (20 innings pitched/ L3 starts). The Padres bullpen, good as usual, is clipping along with an ERA of just 2.17 in their last 10 games.

While the Padres aren’t usually the hardest hitting team, they have been tearing it up lately, climbing into the top ten in offense with an OPS of .789, just slightly ahead of the Cubs. On the verge of a sweep, they have outscored the Cubs 35 to 11 in the first three games of this series.

The Cubs are 0-9.  Musgrove and the Padres show no sign of slowing down and are a heavy favorite today.  Take them on the run line at - 1 1/2.  They should be fine for the extra runs.

The Avalanche are potent and fast on offense, well-rested, and have run over their opponents to date. The only issue on the horizon, other than the loss of Kadri, is their goal-tending. Kuemper has been nothing special to date, and could be too rested as we saw with Vasilevskiy in game one of the Rangers series. Speaking of Vasilevskiy, the Lightning net-minder came back and proved his worth in the rest of that series, and is the largest stumbling block between the Avs and the Stanley Cup. The Avs are a much better team on offense, and will exert far more pressure on the Lightnings’ defense and goal-tending. Tampa Bay limited the Rangers to under 25 shots in games 5 and 6. The Avs were over 40 shots in every game vs. the Oilers, and will have more than their share of attempts on the Tampa Bay net.

The Lightning are the veterans in the playoff final series, but the Avalanche have under-achieved in past years and will have all the desire in the world coming in to this game. Colorado has been a monster on home ice.

The Lightning were not prolific in goals-for vs. the Rangers, but faced a standout goaltender. I expect they will have more success vs. Kuemper, especially in Game one. Take the Over between the Lightning and Avalanche on Wednesday night.

The Atlanta Braves have come alive in a big way, and, while their hitting is top notch lately, they’ve also done it with their pitching. Spencer Strider made the switch from reliever to starter in late May. He gave up 3 runs in the first inning of start #1, but has only given up two other runs in 13 innings since. He pitched into the 6th inning and shut out the Pirates in his last start. He likely won’t be fully stretched out, but he’ll get the support of a sizzling bullpen, with an ERA of 1.57 in their last 10 games.

The Nationals were crushed by the Braves in their last two starts and are getting nothing but hard luck from their relievers and starters. Fedde is on the mound for the Nationals, and can pitch well, but has not shown it lately, giving up 13 runs in 12 innings in his last three starts. His last outing was his best lately, but he still gave up 3 runs while pitching into the 6th.

The Nationals have been middling in offense lately, but are dead last in pitching effectiveness. They are 12-20 at home.  The Braves are 3rd in offense at .292/.917 OPS in the last two weeks. They have had considerable success against Fedde. Look for them to extend their streak on Wednesday.  Take Atlanta on the run line; They will be good for the extra  runs.

The Yankees lead the tough AL East by a solid margin and knocked off the Rays in a tight game on Wednesday. It could be another pitcher’s duel with two of the best meeting on the mound. Rays’ lefty McClanahan (1.86 ERA) has been dominant this year, including holding the Yankees to just 1 run over 6 innings in May. His last outing was a 2 hit 8 inning shutout vs the Cardinals. He faces Nestor Cortes (1.96 ERA), also a lefty, and also having a fine season. Cortes is off his worst start of the season, a 4 runs in 4+ innings start that was most uncommon. Look for Cortes to bounce back today. Both teams have excellent bullpens, performing very well recently.

The Rays are not a powerhouse on offense this year or recently, with a .666 OPS in the last two weeks. Compare to the Yankees’ .282 BA and .910 OPS in the same time period. Things do even up vs. left-handed pitching somewhat. The Rays have been weak on the road this year.

It is hard to argue with the Yankees’ offense but if anyone can hold them down it will be McClanahan. Another low total seems likely today, and considering the respective bullpens’ prowess, the complete game total seems the best option. Take the Yankees and Rays to go under today.