The breakup of the Black Hawks has begun, as they've lost a real fan favorite and spark plug to the Lightning. We have also likely seen the last of Fleury, who has kept things close for the Hawks in net. Look for Lankinen to start today.

The Wild are still in a play-off spot, but need to gain some consistency or that could change quickly.  This is a great situational game for a much needed win against a demoralized Black Hawks team, who are poor on the road at the best of times. Talbot looks to have improved lately, and the Hawks don't have much in the way of offense anyway. The Wild have an explosive offense, and today will be the day when it expresses itself.  Look for the Wild to 'kick 'em while they are down" and win this one going away.  Take the Wild - 1 1/2 today.

The Clippers are probably safe when it comes to landing in the play-in round, but they have lost five of seven with the only wins coming against the Wizards and Pistons. Things get no easier for them on Friday, having to go to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz.

Utah is a disappointing fourth in the West right now, actually tied with Dallas. They are 12.5 games behind Phoenix for the top spot, so forget about that. They are 4.5 back of Memphis for second and 3.5 back of Golden State, deficits that can be made up. 

In the last game, the Jazz put up 125 in a win over Chicago. Six of their last eight games have stayed Under, but the Jazz continue to score. They’ve averaged 119 over the last five games. That’s even more than their season average of 114, which is top six in the league.

So count on Utah scoring their average on Friday. If so, we won’t need a ton of points from the Clippers to send this one Over the total. LA averages 106.9 points per game, which would be enough if the Jazz also hit their average. 

The last three Clippers-Jazz games have all gone Over. There have been 230, 250 and 227 total points scored in those games. Something similar here? I think so!

Villanova should really smash Delaware here. The Blue Hens made a surprise run through the Colonial Tournament as the 5-seed. Now they are facing the Big East Tournament Champs and one of the best teams in the country. This isn’t exactly a Saturday vs. Northeastern.

‘Nova is 10-1 its last 11 games and that one loss was by two points. They are probably going to make a deep run in this Tournament. Late in the game, when it comes to covering this spread, it is nice that the Wildcats are the #1 team in the country when it comes to making free throws.

Delaware has never won an NCAA Tournament in five previous tries. They are also 0-15 all-time against Villanova. They had lost three straight games entering the CAA Tournament.

Since 2014, Jay Wright’s Wildcats have five wins by 20 or more points as a top two seed in the NCAA Tournament.

On offense, ‘Nova will overwhelm the Delaware. Defensively, the Wildcats allow just 63.1 points per game.

Look for Texas Tech to have no trouble beating Montana State on Friday. This 3 vs. 14 matchup is a total mismatch.

Texas Tech is #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency. This will serve them well. Montana State normally shoots well, but there’s a big difference in going from facing your typical team out of the Big Sky to the one the Bobcats will face here. 

Though Montana State was regular season and conference tournament champs out of the Big Sky, this is their first NCAA Tourney appearance since 1996. Texas Tech, who made the Big 12 Final against Kansas, is a regular in this event. They played for the National Championship, under Chris Beard, in 2019.

The Red Raiders beat every single Big 12 team at least once this year and had two wins over Baylor, a 1-seed.  They are also 8-1 ATS off their last nine straight up losses.

Montana State simply will not be able to shoot the three as well as they normally do here. Lay the points.

Second seeded Auburn looks to avoid the same fate that befell its SEC brethren Kentucky (a fellow 2-seed) on Friday. The Tigers should certainly avoid the upset against Jacksonville State here as the Gamecocks did not even win their Conference Tournament! Instead, they got the Atlantic Sun’s automatic berth because they were regular season champs and the conference tourney champs (Bellarmine) were ineligible for the Big Dance!

But I don’t think I can trust Auburn minus all these points here. The Tigers have failed to cover five of the last six games, and despite bagging their first regular season SEC title since 1999, they were “one and done” in the conference tourney, losing to a Texas A&M team that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament.

So let’s look at the total. Auburn averages 78.7 points per game and should have no problems getting to the basket in this matchup. 

Jacksonville State shoots 47.2% overall as a team and made 40% of its threes in conference play. Am I confident they’ll hit those percentages today? Not really. But they’ll score enough!

Auburn is 9-2 Over its last 11 neutral court games where the total is 135 to 139.5. That’s the way I think this one is headed.

Off a poor effort against the Jets, the Golden Knights have dug themselves a big hole in the play off picture, and Thursday’s game will not likely start to remedy the situation. They’ve lost 5 straight, have a very long injury list with some key players on it, and are not playing inspired hockey. With Lehner out, their goal-tending has been questionable, allowing 18 goals in 3 games. And while the Panthers can struggle on the road, Vegas has excelled neither at home nor on the road recently.

Florida has the league’s best offense, and has been holding the opposition to less than three goals lately. They are first in the tough Atlantic division, and if they want to stay there, a game vs the present Vegas team is a must win. Bobrovsky is likely ready for Thursday, which is good news for the Panthers.

There is just too much wrong with the Golden Knights right now for any real chance at knocking off the high-flying Panthers. Take Florida to win going away.

A low total here, but rightly so. San Diego State has the second most efficient defense in the country and allows 57.7 points per game. Not to be outdone, their opponents for Thursday, Creighton, give up only 65.9 points per game.

Creighton made a run all the way to the Big East Tournament Final, solidifying its place in the field of 68. Along the way, they held top seed Providence to only 58 points. The Bluejays may have lost the final, but that was a 54-48 game vs. Villanova, precisely the kind of score we’re looking for today.

San Diego State’s last three games have seen 99, 121 and 105 total points scored. All three went Under. 

The Aztecs don’t score a ton. We’re talking about only a 61.3 point average when playing away from home. 

The Under hit in all five SDSU games on a neutral court during the regular season. Two teams holding opponents below 40% shooting for the year should lead to a “rock fight.” Take the Under

There have been only five years where a 12-seed has never beaten a 5 in the NCAA Tournament. I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen in this Tournament, so why not take the points here with New Mexico State, a team that is 26-6 on the year?

The Aggies have been to the NCAA Tournament before. They made it three straight years from 2017-19. Incredibly, they have lost 11 consecutive first round games, going back to the mid-90s. Eventually, a team is due. This team is better than most previous editions. 

UConn has not been good at covering games. They are only 3-11 ATS in their previous 14. During that time, they have only four wins by more than seven points. The Huskies have also not won a NCAA Tourney game since 2016.

New Mexico State has wins over Davidson, Washington State, Cal Irvine and UTEP. So I don’t expect them to be intimidated at all. Their record as an underdog is a perfect 4-0 against the spread.

I have to take the points here in what should be a close matchup throughout.

Providence is much maligned as a four seed as they won a lot of close games and thus probably are not as good as their overall record. But the Friars are being WAY undervalued for their first round matchup vs. 13-seed South Dakota State, a team that plays little in the way of defense.

The underdog Jackrabbits rank 223rd in the country in defensive efficiency. That is second worst among ALL tournament teams.

Not that a team needs any added motivation to win in March Madness, but the way Providence exited the Big East Tournament - an 85-58 loss to Creighton - should have them ready to go here. 

This is tied for the shortest spread ever in a 4 vs. 13 matchup. The Friars will take it as a sign of disrespect.

While South Dakota State has not lost a game since Dec 15, the conference that they play in (Summit) is weak. The Jackrabbits live and die by the three, so thankfully Providence can hang its hat on the fact they are allowing just 31.2 percent shooting from long range. Lay the short number.

After enduring a flood of goals courtesy of the Canucks, the Devils head directly into the flames (Calgary style) in a 3 games/4 nights situation.  Both Devils goal-tenders were shelled on Tuesday, getting little support from that 26th rated defense.

The Flames have given up just three goals in their last 3 games when Markstrom was in net, so don't bet on much offense from a young and tired Devils club.  Calgary is averaging just about 4 goals-for a game lately, and the majority of their considerable wins are by two or more.  Calagary is a huge favorite, and rightly so, howver the odds on the puck line are very palatable. Take the Flames -1 1/2.

Judging by their record, the Bruins are the rare team that seems impervious to fatigue in back to back match-ups. At 8-2 L10, they have hit their stride, and have also won 6 of 7 road games. The Bruins’ defense is a worthy top 5, and they have a fine young goal-tender in Swayman starting tonight.

The Wild, in free fall at 3-6, are now in real danger of missing the playoffs. Their high-firing offense has been limited to just 2 goals in each of their last two starts, and they have been giving up close to 5 goals in their last 6 games. Talbot, tonight’s likely starter, has been ineffective lately.

The Bruins are tough to play against in any situation, and I don’t think that the Wilds’ slump will end tonight. The Bruins, on the road, are available at very reasonable odds. Look for them to defy those odds, and steal this game. Take the Bruins to win.

Only one of Philadelphia’s last five games went Over the total and that was the 116-114 win against Orlando, which went to OT. Had it not been for overtime, it would have been five straight Unders coming into tonight’s tilt. 

After winning the first five games with James Harden in the lineup, the Sixers have lost two of the last three. That’s after falling 114-110 at home to Denver on Monday, a game where they had a 15-point lead after one quarter but could not hold.

Speaking of holding, that is what Cleveland is desperately trying to do with the six seed in the Eastern Conference so they can avoid the play-in round. A 120-111 win over the Clippers Monday night definitely helped, but it took overtime. 

The Cavs are one of the better defensive teams in the league - especially at home where they are 16-4 in their last 20 games. At the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, they are giving up just 100.9 points per game. The Under is 22-9 here. 

I don’t see Evan Mobley matching the production from his last game, which was a career-best 30 points. As a team, Cleveland has not topped 106 in regulation in any of its last three games. Philadelphia has not topped 110 in regulation in four of its last five games. Take the Under.

Neither of these two 16-seeds in the First Four are very good defensively. In fact, in terms of points allowed per possession, they are two of the three worst in the tournament. Throw in the fact that one of them (Bryant) plays at the seventh fastest tempo in the country and you’ve got the recipe for an Over.

Wright State has three players averaging at least 14.3 points per game - Holden, Basile and Calvin. As a team, the Raiders put up 75.5 points per game. Six of their last eight games have gone Over, including both wins in the Horizon League Tournament.

Bryant has the nation’s top scorer, Peter Kiss, who averages 25.1 points per game. As a team, the Bulldogs put up 77.9. They’ve won 16 of 17 overall and are a hot team.

The problem for Bryant is that when they leave home, they give up an average of 79.2 points. They allowed 111 at Houston! In the eight games where they were a ‘dog, the Bulldogs allowed 81.3 points per game.

Seven of the last eight games where Wright State was up against a team that came in averaging at least 77 points, the game went Over. Batten down the hatches for a high-scoring game Wednesday.

Neither of these two teams are particularly solid on defense, but the Red Wings have been futile, allowing goals in bunches, at a rate of 5 goals per game in their last 5 matchups. They have lost 5 straight and are a very poor road team. Their away losses have consistently been by more than 2 goals.

While the Oilers' offense has been relatively quiet by their standards, they did pot 4 against both Tampa Bay and the Capitals in their last 2 games.  Two wins against tough teams may kickstart their offense and there is no better place to break out than against the Red Wings on the road. Defense and goaltending have been issues for the Oilers, and the Red Wings are not without some of their own muscle on offense. 

While the Oilers should be good for a win here, my best bet is on the total. Shop around on this one , and take the total to go over.

I won with the Pacers, plus the points, Sunday night. They were getting double digits in Atlanta and “slid in” through the “back door,” meaning they outscored the Hawks by 10 in the fourth quarter to lose by just three points. Indiana is now 2-13 SU in games decided by three points or less this season.

Though I was happy to cash a ticket, it was not a great effort from the Pacers on Sunday, at least in the first half. They let Atlanta shoot 60% before halftime, 59.1% from three, and Trae Young scored 33 of his game-high 47 in the first half. Indiana was down by 19 at one point. Seven Hawks finished the game in double figures.

Now Indiana must contend with Memphis, who has been one of the better teams in the league this season. The Grizzlies have won their last three games and are tied for second in the West. 

Memphis has failed to cover the spread its last two times out, but continues to score lots of points. Over the last five games, the team is averaging 122.2 PPG. Dillon Brooks is now back in the lineup after missing 27 games.

The Grizzlies have won 21 of their last 28 road games and should not have much difficulty here defeating the injury-riddled Pacers, who play little defense. Three of Indiana’s last four games have seen them surrender at least 127 points. Memphis has covered nine straight Tuesday games.

Odd that two of the season's worst teams are 2 of the NHL's hottest teams in their last 10 games.  Even more odd is the new-found offense both teams have discovered; the Canadiens are averaging 4 goals a game, and the Coyotes nearly 5 in their respective last five games.  The Coyotes are playing on back to back games, and offense aside, these are still 2 of the NHL's worst defenses.  A close and high score wouldn't surprise me, and the total is a fairly average 6.  Take these  new offensive powerhouses to go over today.

So our first 16 vs 16 seed in the “First Four” pits Texas Southern, tournament champions from the SWAC, against Texas A&M-CC, tournament champions of the Southland. I expect this to be a pretty low-scoring game. 

Start with the neutral court setting. Texas A&M-CC played eight such games during the regular season and those averaged 138 total PPG, well below what the Islanders averaged home or away. All three Southland Tourney games stayed Under. 

Texas Southern played just three neutral court games this season, all in the SWAC Tourney, and two of those stayed Under. The one that didn’t was the Final, an 87-62 win over Alcorn State where the Tigers shot 55.7%. They won’t shoot that well on Tuesday.

Count on the Tigers playing sound defense. For the year, they are allowing a FG% of only 39.6. That’s top 22 in the country. They need to play that kind of defense because no one on the team averaged double figures in scoring during the regular season.

This is just the second all-time NCAA Tourney appearance for Texas A&M-CC and first since 2006-07. I expect them to struggle to make shots. Texas Southern has been in the “First Four” two times previously with those games averaging just 111 PPG. Go with the Under in this one.

Philadelphia was able to get by Orlando last night, though they needed overtime to do so. The Sixers won 116-114, obviously not covering the large spread, but all that matters to them is that they bounced back from the embarrassing home loss to Brooklyn from three nights prior.

The Sixers being in a back to back here has definitely created some value as it’s a really short number that they’re being asked to lay, at home no less. They are up against a Denver team that not only is 0-4 ATS its last four games, but was soundly beaten by the 76ers (103-89) back in November.

Since James Harden came over in the blockbuster trade, Philadelphia has lost only one time. They’ve scored 116 or more points in each of the six wins. 

The Nuggets have been giving up lots of points lately, an average of 118.8 over their last five games. They got torched for 127 by Toronto on Saturday and that was at home. 

I don’t think that the back to back matters too much for Philadelphia, even with last night’s game going to OT, as they’d been off for two days prior to that. The Sixers are 12-4 ATS off an ATS loss. 

Considering the Coyotes have the league’s 3rd worst offense, they have put up some startling goals-for totals lately, with 25 counted in just 4 games. This includes a massive home win against Monday’s opponent, the Senators. The Coyotes are on a tear, winning 4 of 5 and 7 of 10. The Senators did win 2 in a row, but have struggled in a big way in their last 10 games.

Forsberg, expected in net for the Senators, can be sharp in mostly losing causes, but gets little support. Today’s other netminder, Wedgewood, has struggled lately.

These two teams’ last meeting ended on 13 goals. Looking at the Coyote’s stretch of offense, and past totals when the Senators face other bottom dwellers, today’s total of six sounds like a safe bet. Take the Over in this match-up.

The Flames play their second game in two nights, are on the road, and face a very tough opponents in the Avalanche. Their back-up goalie is likely to start. The games when Vladar plays tend to stick out as a/ losses, or b/ higher goals-against totals, c/ back to backs, or d/ all of the above.

The Avs have not been sharp, losing 4 of 5, however they are back home where they are all but unbeatable. They lost in overtime to the Flames last meeting, but are better-rested and will be looking for revenge. This is one of the better opportunities for a Flames loss. Look for the Avs to step up and take this game.

This is a big number, considering Atlanta is only tied for ninth in the conference with a below .500 record. While they’ve been a bit better of late, going 6-4 the last 10 games, the Hawks haven’t beaten anyone by more than six points in over two weeks.

Atlanta did beat Indiana by 21 when they played last month. But the Pacers don’t get blown out all that often. They have 12 losses this year by three points or less. That’s the most in the league. They are being outscored by an average of just 2.3 points per game.

Last night was a win for the Pacers as they went to San Antonio and prevailed by a score of 119-108. The last time this team won two straight was mid-January. Oddsmakers don’t like their chances of ending that streak tonight. But I do believe Indiana will cover in this spot. They are 7-4 ATS in the second game of a back to back.

The Hawks have a game tomorrow night, so they may not be looking to go “all out.” Expect this to be a close game and take the points.

Two of the hotter teams in the NBA meet Sunday in Beantown as the Celtics entertain the Mavs. The home side has won five in a row and lost just twice since late January. There is a case to be made that Boston is the BEST team in the Eastern Conference right now.

No one will tell you Dallas is the best in the West, but the Mavs have won six of seven to remain a solid fifth in that conference. The one loss in the last seven games was a curious one as they fell by 30 to the Knicks.

I envision this to be a pretty high-scoring game. Dallas has been the top Under team in the NBA, but it’s a big difference at home (24-10-1) vs. on the road (17-14-1). Also, all but one of six Mavs’ games this month have seen at least 213 total points scored.

Boston’s last four games have all seen 217 or more total points scored. They shot very poorly from three in their last game and still scored 114. The three-point shooting will improve here.

The Over is 4-0 the previous four times Dallas has been off a straight-up win by more than 10 points. On Friday, they defeated the Rockets 113-100.

Carolina will play its third game in 4 days and its second in 2.  They played the Penguins in a back to back situation last time and still came out ahead.  Back up goalie Raanta will be in net.  He has been terrific in his last two starts, helped out by NHL's best defense.  The Penguins are favored, and would like to show better against the Canes, but the Hurricanes have had their number lately, beating them twice in the last month, and seem to be more or less impervious to fatigue. Home ice is no particular advantage to the Penguins; they've won more often on the road.  The Hurricanes have been particularly tough to score against lately.  They shut out the Avs, and have had their last 5 games go under. This game features 2 excellent defenses and a pair of very strong goal-tenders.  I prefer the total in this match-up, and I am wagering on the game to stay under the total.

Davidson, win or lose today, is probably safe when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament. However, that doesn’t mean the A-10 regular season champs and top seed won’t be motivated to defeat Richmond on Sunday. I’m laying the points as fatigue is probably going to be a factor for the underdog here.

Richmond will be playing its fourth game in as many days. Going back to Thursday, the Spiders rallied back from a 14-point halftime deficit to get past Rhode Island. Since then, they’ve upset the #3 (VCU) and #2 (Dayton) in this tournament. It’s a big ask for them to now take out Davidson, who has been the best team in the conference this season.

Davidson has only had to win two games to get here and wasn’t really challenged in either. The Wildcats were 18-point winners over Fordham in the quarterfinal round, then 15-point winners over St. Louis in the semis. In both games, they jumped out to big leads by halftime and never looked back.

Richmond was again down at the half in yesterday’s game vs. Dayton. In fact, they were down as many as 14 in the second half, with just over 13 minutes remaining. The Spiders did not take the lead for good until less than two minutes remained.

Davidson is the better team and has had the easier path to get here. They won at Richmond, 87-84, in the only regular season matchup. I believe Richmond’s defense will crack here against a Davidson offense that is Top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency. 

The Lightning have struggled on this road-trip, losing a rare two games in a row. They are normally solid away from the Sunshine state, and while I am on about locations, the Oilers aren’t the best road team. The Lightning are a better team in all categories other than power-play, and have ruled the roost in previous matchups. The Oilers have been very inconsistent, winning just 4 of their last 10. Goal-tending is still an issue, as are injuries.

The Lightning have struck out twice in a row, but thrice? Don’t count on it. Take Tampa Bay to win.

Denver hasn’t lost two straight games in over a month. They’ll look to keep that streak alive tonight when they play host to Toronto, who was in action last night. The Raptors won in Phoenix last night, thanks to 42 points from Gary Trent Jr. But it will be exceedingly difficult to match that level of performance in the second night of a back to back.

The Nuggets lost to Golden State Thursday, 113-102. It was just their third loss since Feb 6. Off the previous two, Denver bounced back to not just win, but cover as well. One of those spots was against Toronto, whom they defeated 110-109 as a 4.5-point road dog back on Feb 12.

Steph Curry got hot at the right time against the Nuggets in that last game. The Warriors closed on a 13-0 run, so the final score was a tad misleading. 

This is Toronto’s fourth straight game on the road, third in four nights and second in two nights. A bad spot. They are 4-9 ATS this season after playing three straight on the road.

Furthermore, the Raptors are 7-22 ATS their last 29 meetings with the Nuggets and 0-6 ATS their last six trips into Denver.

Some of the Red Wings' scores have more resembled the NFL than the NHL lately.  They've allowed 42 goals in 7 games. Ouch!  The game against the Flames is a defensive mismatch, pitting the league's 31st defense against #2.  The Flames have a dynamic offense to go with that stellar D, and a hot goalie in Markstrom to boot.  They also have the discipline and a very outspoken coach to avoid any  thought of taking the Red Wings for granted.  Take the Flames on the puck line at -1 1/2.  A rare 2 1/2 is available, but that would be tempting fate.

Creighton turned in an incredible performance yesterday in its semifinal win over Providence. They won 85-58. It was the largest loss for a #1 seed in Big East Tournament history. Providence couldn’t make anything, going 3 of 24 from three and shooting just 30% overall.

I think it’s important to note that Providence seemed to be overrated and to remember that - with no starters back from last year’s Sweet 16 team - Creighton was picked to finish eighth in the Big East this year. Thanks to yesterday, their 9th win in the last 11 games, the Bluejays are all but assured of making the NCAA Tournament.

Thus, the motivation may not be there on Saturday against Villanova, a supremely talented team that is the best in the Big East. ‘Nova beat UConn Friday, 63-60, avenging its last loss. Speaking of avenging losses, that’s precisely what the Wildcats did against Creighton the last time the teams met. After Creighton took the first meeting, ‘Nova bounced back with a 34-point win on January 5th.

Villanova is simply the much better team at the offensive end, where it ranks 8th nationally in efficiency. 

Creighton is 0-3 all-time in Big East Tournament Finals. They can’t possibly play any better than they did yesterday nor can they count on Villanova shooting as poorly as Providence did. As for the Wildcats, they managed to still win last night despite not making a single field goal in the final five minutes. The favorite doesn’t turn it over and is one of the best free throw shooting teams in NCAA history.

The big shocker in the SEC yesterday was Texas A&M upsetting top seed Auburn, 67-62. The Aggies, as 9-point underdogs, led most of the way and were up by as many as 20! That win greatly improved their NCAA Tournament chances, though another win today may be needed.

Arkansas is in the NCAA Tournament, no matter what, but winning the SEC Championship would be nice. It was an impressive 79-67 win for the Hogs over LSU on Friday, improving their record to 15-2 SU since Jan 8. They have also gone 14-2-1 ATS in that same stretch. 

Both regular season meetings between A&M and Arkansas were closely contested. Each team won at home, A&M by five and Arkansas by three. I just don’t think A&M is capable of playing any better than it did yesterday when it made 50% from three at the same time Auburn shot just 30% overall. 

The Razorbacks are pretty clearly the better team here and A&M is playing its third game in three days. One of those games saw the Aggies go to overtime. So their tank could be close to empty by the second half today. Arkansas built itself a nice double digit lead in the second half yesterday and thus fatigue should not be a factor at all for them. Lay the points.

So there is a question whether or not LeBron James is going to suit up tonight. Regardless if he does or not, I’m on the Lakers. 

Wednesday may have been a new nadir for LA as they lost in overtime to the lowly Rockets. With or without James, the Lakers are going to come out motivated on Friday after being ripped in the media.

Facing the Wizards helps. They too are off a gutting loss, letting the Clippers score the game’s final 11 points on Wednesday, sending Washington to yet another defeat, their 20th in the last 32 games.

The Wizards are 5-16 ATS vs. the Western Conference and 0-6 vs. the Pacific Division. 

If LeBron plays, obviously I’m a lot more confident. Either way though, expect the Lakers to win and cover.

The Blue Jackets were smoked by the Islanders yesterday, and are right back into it vs the Wild on Friday. The Wild will also be in a back to back situation. The Blue Jackets gave up 6 and the Wild 5 goals against. These two teams are top 10 offensively, but both would have be considered defensively challenged. The Wild have won a pair after a prolonged dark stretch, and are normally a very good home team. They now have challengers for a playoff spot, so motivation should favor them. They will play their back up goalie tomorrow. The Jackets will star Merzlikins, who has had very little support this season.

This is a perfect opportunity for the Wild to get that offense rolling. I don’t see Columbus being shut out twice in a row. Both teams have given up, on average, better than 4 goals against lately. Here is another match-up destined for the over.

I don’t think you can undersell the importance of the rest advantage here for Wisconsin, in a tough tournament like the Big 10. Michigan State played last night and was taken down to the wire by Maryland, grinding out a 76-72 win.

It shouldn’t have ended up that close for Sparty, who had a 20-point lead over the Terps. Don’t look for MSU to shoot as well here as they did last night when they made 50% overall and 47.4% from three.

Wisconsin should be very eager to take the court tonight after they shockingly lost the home finale, to Nebraska, as 13-point favorites. The Badgers basically trailed the entire way in that game against the last place team in the Big 10. 

But at no point this season have the Badgers lost two in a row. They have won a lot of close games. But looking at the number, the possibility of a SU win/ATS loss here is very minimal.

Michigan State has lost 7 of its last 11 games.

Nicholls State is the top seed here in the Southland Tournament and received a double-bye into today’s semifinals. They face Texas A&M-CC, who defeated Houston Baptist by a score of 75-60 yesterday. Texas A&M-CC covered the 5.5-point spot in that game.

Texas A&M-CC has won five of its last six games. But the one loss did come to Nicholls, 86-75 at home. They were swept in the season series, also losing at Nicholls by three. Nicholls has now won the last four head to head meetings and six of the last seven.

Going back to January 27th, Nicholls has lost only two games, both to SE Louisiana, who they very well could end up seeing in tomorrow’s final. The Colonels come in averaging 79.6 points per game, tied for 15th in the country, and have exceeded 80 points in seven consecutive games.

In the two regular season games vs. Texas A&M-CC, Nicholls scored 83 and 86 points.

The Colonels are the best team in the Southland and I just can’t see them being upset here. Not with a rest advantage. Lay the short number.

The second SEC quarterfinal pits LSU (the 5-seed) against #16 Arkansas (the 4-seed). LSU won yesterday, 76-68 as an 11-point favorite over Missouri. Arkansas had a bye. 

The Razorbacks won’t be too upset to see the Tigers in this quarterfinal matchup. They swept the season series, winning 65-58 at Baton Rouge in January and then 77-76 in Fayetteville last week. 

In terms of the number of points scored, I look for this “rubber match” to be more in line with that more recent meeting. LSU has scored 75 or more points in six of their last seven games. Arkansas has scored 74 or more in five of its last six.

The thing about that last meeting ending up so high scoring is that neither team shot well from three. They combined to miss 38 of 49 attempts from behind the arc. Expect a lot better long-distance shooting on Thursday afternoon.  

LSU didn’t cover yesterday. They are 7-1 Over off an ATS loss. 

Northern Colorado faces Eastern Washington in the 3-6 matchup of the Big Sky Tournament. Eastern Washington played yesterday, beating Northern Arizona 78-75. Northern Colorado had a bye, so they have a distinct advantage that is seemingly not being accounted for (enough) by the oddsmakers.

Eastern Washington has won its last three games, but two of those were against Northern Arizona, who finished last in the Big Sky. Last night’s first round matchup saw the need for a late 9-0 run to take the lead. I just don’t think the Eagles will have much left in the tank for tonight.

Northern Colorado has been off since Saturday’s two point loss at Montana State. A sour taste in their mouth (from losing the last regular season game) will have the Bears highly motivated coming into this one.

Each team won on the other’s court this year, so it was a split of the two regular season meetings. Northern Colorado was a two-point favorite on the road and six point favorite at home, so I feel we are getting a discount (for whatever reason) here.

Northern Colorado has not dropped back to back games in over a month, a stretch of 11 games. I’ll roll with them.

Columbus doesn't really "do" unders.  The Blue Jackets haven't won very often recently, but they sure can put the puck in the net.  They unfortunately can't keep it out with any frequency either.  Their last 4 games have all ended over 6.5, and all have been close, with overtime figuring prominently.

With a 9th rated defense and a 27th rated defense, the Islanders are rightly known as a "defense first" team, but that hasn't been the case lately, with just 2 of 8 going under the total. They also have a poor track record in their  last 10, and are not a strong home team.  They have flashed a bit of offense lately, and a game against Columbus offers a fine opportunity for some more.

I am more than a little surprised at the odds for Thursday's match-up.  Any time there is a 5.5 total involving Columbus, I am on the over, and you should be too.

Think there might be some bad blood here? For the first time since being traded to Philadelphia, James Harden faces his former Brooklyn teammates. Both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will be on the floor for the Nets.

The 76ers are 5-0 in games where Harden has played. They have scored at least 121 in every one of those five victories. In addition to Harden, you’ve got Joel Embiid, who went for 43 points and 14 rebounds in Monday night’s 121-106 win over the Bulls.

The Nets got 50 from Irving on Tuesday as they snapped a four-game losing streak with a 132-121 win over Charlotte. Durant had just 14 points in that game. I expect a lot more from him tonight.

This total is on the move and it’s easy to understand why. Not only have the Sixers averaged 125.4 points with Harden in the lineup, but the Nets have scored 120 and 132 in their last two games while shooting 53% from the field.

Brooklyn is 2-0 Over this season following a game where they scored 130 or more points.

Long Beach State won the Big West this year with a 12-3 conference record. They finished 18-11 overall. Despite this, the Beach is just a short favorite for its quarterfinal game against a Cal State Bakersfield team that won just two conference games all season! What? 

CS-Bakersfield also had to win a game to get here. They advanced out of the first round by defeating Cal State Northridge on Tuesday, 58-45 as a six-point favorite. Even with the day in between games, I don’t see the Roadrunners having much of a chance today. They lost by nine at LBSU in the lone regular season matchup.

LBSU has lost only two games in the previous two months. While they are a bit of a shaky #1 seed, they are clearly better than the #9 seed in this tournament. 

Coming into the Big West Tournament, CS-Bakersfield had just one win in its last 13 games! They are 6-16 ATS in lined games this season!

Just can’t make sense of this number from the oddsmakers; the top seed is being “disrespected” and I’ll play accordingly.

Texas has one of the top scoring defenses in the entire country (just 59.6 PPG allowed), but I expect this game with TCU to be higher scoring than expected. The Longhorns give up a lot more points when they’re outside of Austin. For the record, the Big 12 Tournament takes place in Kansas City.

Just to illustrate, when they’re at home, Texas gives up only 52.8 points per game. When they are outside of Austin, they give up 69.9 PPG. That is a big difference! 

Both times Texas and TCU played in the regular season, the game went Over the total. The second time, there were 141 total points scored. TCU shot abnormally well in that one, but Texas also missed 13 of 14 three-pointers. Whatever shot regression we see here from the Horned Frogs will be made up by the Longhorns being better from behind the arc.

Seven of Texas’ last eight games would have gone Over today’s total. The last five have averaged 136.4 PPG.

TCU is 3-0 Over in neutral court games this season. They are also 8-2 to the Over when the total is 120 to 129.5. 

Minnesota is playing its best basketball of the season right now. The Timberwolves have won five in a row, covering the spread each time, and averaged 130.6 points per game. They are winning by an average of almost 23 points during the win streak!

Now it helps to play the likes of Oklahoma City and Portland, the latter twice, but guess who the T’wolves see tonight? OKC again! It was 138-101 the last time these teams met and that was in Oklahoma City. Minnesota turned in both its highest scoring half (77 points) and quarter (45) of the season in that win. They shot 57% before halftime and for the game, made 22 of 47 three-point shots.

Oklahoma City is coming off a loss last night where it surrendered 142 points. So this game could get very ugly in a hurry. The Thunder have lost their last three games and allowed 124 or more points in five of the last seven.

The Timberwolves are 3-0 vs. the Thunder in 2021-22. The last two wins were by 30 and 37 points. Let’s not overthink this one. Minnesota has covered all eight home games this season when the total is 230 points or higher. They are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite of -12.5 or higher.

Only one NCAA Tournament berth will be handed out today and it goes to the winner of the Patriot League Final between Navy and Colgate. These are the top two seeds, but Colgate has pretty clearly been the class of the league throughout the season. On their home floor, I expect the Raiders to win comfortably and move on.

The respective paths these teams took to get to this Final illustrates the gap that exists between them. Colgate has rolled over Bucknell (96-68) and Lehigh (91-61) while Navy squeaked by American U (71-64) and needed overtime to beat Boston U (85-80). 

This game is being played in Colgate’s gym where they are 14-1 SU this season and 38-4 SU the last three seasons. So it’s a really big deal. When at home, the Raiders are outscoring their opponents by almost 17 points per game.

Colgate swept the two regular season meetings vs. Navy. At home, they won by only five. But they won the game in Annapolis by 19. 

It’s 14 straight wins for Colgate coming into tonight. Only one has been by less than seven points.

Vermont is the clear class of the America East. That’s why they are 20+ point favorites in the semifinals of the tournament. While I expect the Catamounts to win here, that price is too high. Expect it to be a low-scoring game against Binghamton Wednesday night.

The ol’ Binghamton Bearcats were not even expected to get this far, but they upset the 3-seed, New Hampshire, in the first round of the tourney. They were 7.5-point underdogs and won 72-69. But it has been a LONG time since Binghamton beat Vermont. The most points they’ve scored in any of the L10 meetings is 63.

In two losses to Vermont this year, Binghamton averaged just 50 points. Both games stayed Under. Binghamton shot around 35% overall in the two games and was a combined 9 of 45 from three. 

Though Vermont put up 98 in its first round win over NJIT, that’s not a number you should expect here. In six of the previous seven games, the Catamounts did not top 76. They are averaging 74.7 PPG this year.

But the key for Vermont is that they’ve held the last six opponents all to 61 points or less. I already talked about what they did to Binghamton in the two regular season meetings. The underdog just isn’t going to score many points here, so the favorite won’t have to go all out offensively either. Take the Under

It’s going to be a “tough mountain” to climb for LaSalle and St. Joe’s, who have to play in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 Tourney. Both face the prospect of having to win five times in five days just to make the NCAA Tournament. That’s not going to happen, but one team will win today and I think that’s going to be the short favorite.

Consider that St. Joe’s is playing with double revenge. Yes, they lost twice to LaSalle in the regular season. The more recent loss came exactly a week ago, on the road and by a single point. At the time, that was the Hawks’ seventh straight defeat, but five of them were by six points or less and three by two points or less.

Thankfully, the regular season ended on a positive note with St. Joe’s defeating Rhode Island 70-60. With the losing streak now over, they can concentrate on exacting some revenge.

LaSalle has won three in a row, which is very rare as it is tied for their longest win streak of the year. Two of those three wins have been by two points or less. The Explorers were just 2-13 in A-10 games. I think this is a wonderful time to fade them, especially at this price. St. Joe’s is the better team here and I find it hard to believe anybody could lose to LaSalle three times in the same season. 

The Senators have a lamentable record lately, particularly on the road, They haven’t mustered much in the way of offense against better teams, and were roughed up by the Blues in their last meeting. Forsberg has been a solid net-minder in a losing cause, but has faced 40 or more shots in three straight games.

It won’t get any easier against the Blues’ very dynamic offense. The Blues have been on the road for an extended period of time, but are finally back in St Louis tonight. They are a much more successful home team, and after losing a rare three straight away games, will be fired up against a very beatable opponent. They are a fine team on both offense and defense, but haven’t shown much in the way of scoring on this mini-slump. This will be the perfect opportunity for a big breakout.  Take the Blues to win on the puck line.

UTSA and Southern Miss face a tough path in the Conference USA Tournament. Both face the task of having to win five times this week. That’s not going to happen for either team. But I do really like UTSA to win this first round game.

The Roadrunners aren’t particularly great, but they did win their last game (82-71 over Rice) and are facing an opponent that hasn’t won in nearly two months. The last time Southern Miss did win (1/19), it was against a non-DI foe. The last time the Golden Eagles defeated a Division I opponent was Jan 6 - UTSA. It was a one-point victory, 74-73.

UTSA avenged that loss with a 19-point win at Hattiesburg one month later. They are now 4-1 SU/ATS vs. Southern Miss the previous three seasons. 

Southern Miss is very bad. They are 6-25 overall and 1-17 in conference play. The average loss came by nearly 15 PPG when facing a team from C-USA. During their current 12-game losing streak, 10 losses have come by double digits.

This is a steal having to lay so few points against Southern Miss. UTSA has already proven that they can blow this team out. They will again.

There’s been a bit of a “cooling off” with the Grizzlies, as they are just 4-4 SU the last eight games overall. But after a bad loss, 123-112 at Houston, I expect them to start strong tonight at home vs. New Orleans.

No reason to panic in Memphis. Owing mostly to the Warriors’ recent struggles, the team has moved up into second place in the Western Conference. Looking back, the Grizzlies have won 25 of 33. They are still one of the best teams in the NBA.

The Grizz probably should have beaten the Rockets considering they were up 10 at halftime. But they finished the game an uncharacteristic 5 of 28 from three-point range.

Similarly, the opponent for Tuesday blew a double digit lead on Sunday and lost. New Orleans was more egregious, letting an 11-point advantage slip away in the final 3:22 of regulation and ending up going down in overtime, 138-130 at Denver. That snapped a four-game SU/ATS win streak for the Pelicans.

The Grizzlies typically do very well off losses. Since Christmas, there’s been only one instance of them losing back to back games. Look for those threes to start falling here and the home team will cover the spread.

The Panthers have played a lot of hockey in the last few days, and are not quite as successful on the road.  They have the top offense in the NHL, but are up against a rested Penguins team with the 4th best defense in the league.  They have had a relatively easy schedule for the last couple of weeks, and are still only 3-3.

After some significant long-term injuries this season, Pittsburgh now has all of the big guns in place.  They've knocked off some high flying teams lately, and kept it close against the 'Canes in a 2nd game in 2 nights situation.  Jarry had a three game blip, but has been terrific in his last two starts.  The Penguins are no slouches at home or on offense, and are stingy both at 5 on 5 and on the PK.  Considering the fatigue factor, I like Pittsburgh's chances.  Take the Penguins to win.

The bottom six take part in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Here, it’s the #11 seed Louisville taking on #14 Georgia Tech. The teams met once in the regular season. Louisville won 67-64 as a three-point favorite.

Since that win, the bottom dropped out of Louisville's season. They fired head coach Chris Mack and ended the regular season on a poor 4-13 ATS run. They won just two of those games straight up.

So I’m siding with the Yellow Jackets here. They’ve got a bit more momentum, having covered five of the last six games and beating Boston College in the regular season finale.

Playing for a lame-duck interim coach is no way to enter a conference tournament. That’s the reality for Louisville right now. 

The Cardinals shoot just 28% from three away from home and average 63.9 points. They’ve also turned the ball over 54 times in the last four games and allowed opponents to shoot a ridiculous percentage from three in the last three games. 

The Kings get to host the Knicks, who are in the second night of a back to back. Furthermore, since the Knicks won on Sunday (beat the Clippers 116-93), I think we’re getting a really good price on the home side. 

Sacramento is coming off a 2-3 road trip. It could have been better, but two of the losses were by five points or less. They lost 114-113 in Dallas on Saturday, blowing a 19-point lead. 

Before winning Sunday, the Knicks had lost seven straight and 10 of their last 11. They aren’t a good team either. This is the middle of a seven-game, 12-day trip that has Dallas, Memphis and Brooklyn still to come. I’d say the Knicks are about to fall out of playoff contention for good.

The Kings have revenge for a 20-point loss they suffered in Madison Square Garden. The Knicks shot 50 percent in that game, something they haven’t done since. 

New York has failed to cover 15 of the last 22 times it has been off an ATS win. Most of those games came with rest, something that isn’t the case here. Lay the points.

All of a sudden, Detroit has turned into a covering machine, winning its last seven in a row ATS. But let’s not sugarcoat the fact the Pistons are still a bad basketball team. They are thirty games below .500 and have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference.

During the 7-0 ATS run, the Pistons have won straight up a total of five times. They are coming off back to back wins here, first beating the Raptors in Toronto on Thursday night, 108-106, followed by a 111-106 home win over the Pacers on Friday. The team had the weekend off. 

You can look for the win streak to end Monday against Atlanta. First off, Detroit has not won three in a row at any point in the season. They are 1-2 ATS when coming off two straight wins and the one cover came as 12.5-point underdogs.

Atlanta has been playing better recently. They too have won five of their last seven and didn’t play over the weekend. The Hawks’ most recent wins came over the Bulls and Wizards. Trae Young has averaged 34.0 points and 9.5 assists over the last four games.

The last time the Pistons won three in a row was the 2018-19 season. The last time these teams met, the Hawks won by 18. John Collins is now back for them. The home team is due to play poorly.

The Toronto Maple Leafs, once a shoe-in for the playoffs, are in big trouble defensively, Their goals-against have soared from a 2.9 seasonal average to over 5 per game in their last 4 games. Both goalies are struggling in net and they are missing a pair of defensemen. The Blue Jackets are in much the same boat with injuries, and also have the league’s 31st ranked defense.

Both these teams can put the puck in the net with regularity. Their last meeting ended at 7 goals, and the total has figured prominently for both teams recently. Look for a free-wheeling game with plenty of offense, and not much in the way of puck-stopping. Take the total in this one to go over.

Despite being regular season champs in the Horizon League, Cleveland State isn’t getting much respect in this semifinal matchup with 4-seed Wright State. The quarterfinals of this tournament saw all top four seeds win in the quarterfinals after they each received a first round bye.

The top-seeded Vikings are 20-9 on the year. They ousted Robert Morris 83-67 in the quarterfinals, a game in which they had the home court advantage. Tonight’s game takes place in Indianapolis, a neutral setting. The Vikings actually haven’t played a neutral court game all season.

Thursday’s win against Robert Morris was marred by issues with the scoreboard, but CSU got 25 points from Torrey Patton, which matched a season-high. The Vikings shot well (54.2%) and defended the three-point line better than RMU. They forced 20 turnovers.

Wright State found itself down eight at the half against Oakland in its quarterfinal matchup. They too got to play at home. It was a 20-0 run that turned the tide. The Raiders are 0-3 ATS in neutral site games this year though and are unlikely to go on a run like that against a better team like Cleveland State.

Cleveland State won both regular season meetings, 85-75 at home and 71-67 away. They are the better team here and won the Horizon League Tourney last season. I see no reason why they won’t defeat Wright State again. 

Five straight Charleston games have gone Over the total. The last one was against Hofstra, who they’ll face again here in the quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament. I expect the Over trend to continue.

Last Monday it was an 89-84 Hofstra win. The teams entered that game knowing they would be facing each other again in the Tournament, The key for Hofstra is always forcing turnovers. They forced 28 on Monday, a season-high. While they may not force that many again today, Charleston does tend to be rather careless with the basketball on a regular basis, ranking 295th in turnover rate.

Charleston also plays at the fastest tempo in the country, so this game will have plenty of possessions. Over their previous five games, Charleston is averaging 84.4 points on 54.1% shooting.

Save for a head-scratcher against Elon, Hofstra has been scoring plenty themselves. They’ve topped 75 in six of their last seven games. 

This should be a really high scoring game. The Over is 17-4 in Charleston’s last 21 games as an underdog. Take the OVER

The Jet’s record against top teams isn’t very good and they have lost more games than they have won against anyone lately. Hellebuyck has been sub-par this season, and especially in his last three games. The Jets are a decent home team, but have been both uneven and a disappointment this year.

The Rangers are probably a year or two from being a dominant force in the NHL, but they are still a fine young team, with good defense, and the very best goalie in the league in Shesterkin. They aren’t blowing anyone away with offense lately, but they have had past good success on the road against the Jets.

While the odds-makers usually have their reasons, today’s odds in this game defy me. I will take the Rangers as an underdog over the Jets any day. So should you..

The Suns are playing shorthanded, but even so this is too many points to pass up. The team with the best record in the NBA, the Suns have lost just three of their last 24 games. After beating Portland by 30 on Wednesday, they came from behind to beat the Knicks on Friday.

Milwaukee comes into this NBA Finals rematch on a three-game win streak. The last two wins, over Miami and Chicago, were both hard fought. Only one of the Bucks' last five games have been decided by more than six points. I bring this up, because they may not have enough left in the tank to run away with this one.

Brook Lopez is still out for the Bucks. As great as Giannis has been recently, that kind of production can’t continue forever. 

Not only have the Bucks failed to cash in seven of their last nine games against teams that have winning records, but they are just 13-21 ATS at home. Phoenix has an incredible road record of 23-5 SU.

As short-handed as they might be (no Paul or Booker), look for the Suns to compete here. They dominated Milwaukee (131-107) in the first meeting since last year’s NBA Finals. This is the most points they’ll get in any game all season.

The Kings, on track for a play-off berth, are a very good road team and a strong favorite in this match-up in spite of an abysmal historical record against the Sabres in Buffalo. Quick will likely start but hasn’t performed to his long-time standard lately.

Another elder statesman is in net for the Sabres. Anderson, at 40, may have seen better days as well. He will face a lot of shots vs the Kings’ sharpshooters, and with the 26th rated defense in front of him, won’t get much support. The Sabres’ offense has been showing a little better lately, and the Kings have not been stingy, giving up 11 goals in a pair of losses, and 3 in a win against Columbus on Friday. The total has been 6 goals or more in each team’s last 4 games. I am betting on the over to continue on Sunday, but do shop around...

This is an important game for Memphis, despite having won three in a row. The Tigers are firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble and can still earn the second seed for next week’s American Conference Tournament.

They are also looking to make it a season sweep over Houston. That would be quite the accomplishment. Back on February 12th, the Tigers ended the Cougars’ 37-game home win streak with a 69-59 victory. That was a season-low in points for Houston and they committed a season-high 19 turnovers. 

Memphis has won 9 of its last 10 overall, the one loss coming at SMU. They’ve also covered five straight times against Houston.

I really like the spot for the short home underdog here. Houston is playing its fourth game in eight days (“tough” says coach Kelvin Sampson) and is lacking depth because of injuries. Considering that the Cougars have already locked up the regular season title, they may not be treating this game all that seriously.

Memphis has covered 11 of the past 13 times it has been an underdog. Grab the points.

UNLV played New Mexico in January and won 85-56. The Runnin’ Rebels don’t need to win by even half that margin tonight in Albuquerque. I’ll lay the points.

UNLV already knows it will be 5th in the Conference Tournament. That means they avoid playing in the first round. But they will face Wyoming in the quarterfinals. They just beat the Cowboys by seven on Wednesday.

New Mexico will be the nine seed, so they are in the first round and matched up with Nevada. The Lobos have lost four of five and just fell at Fresno State earlier in the week. They did at least cover the spread as 10-point underdogs.

UNLV has won the last seven head to head meetings. I say you can make it eight after tonight.

The Rebels have lost only one game that they have been favored in all season. This number is short. Lay it.

I like the spot for Charlotte here. They just handed Cleveland a 119-98 defeat and have had two days off. Now the Hornets can turn their full attention to San Antonio, who just got beat at home by Sacramento.

That loss to Sacramento was the Spurs’ first home game following the annual “Rodeo Road Trip,” which spanned eight games and nearly three weeks. The Spurs went 4-4 on the trip. But then they came home and lost to the Kings. Now it's back on the road, to the East Coast no less. They are 13-20 in road games this season.

Charlotte beat San Antonio, at the Alamo, 131-115 back in December.

What makes this game so important to the Hornets is that they are just 1-9 their last 10 at home. Prior to that, they had a very good home record. I just can’t see San Antonio coming in here and winning. 

The surprising Blue Jackets are at home, but on back-to-back games against a Bruins team with 6 wins in 7 games.  Boston is very tough to play against, but especially on the road, with the third best defense and  a very solid young goalie at the moment in Swayman.  The last time the Jackets played in the second night in a row, they were shelled by the 'Canes, allowing 50 shots on goal. Columbus has one of the worst defences in the league at the best of times.  Boston is a hot prospect since Marchand returned, and haS been generating plenty of offense.  Against a tired Columbus team, off an overtime loss, I expect a decisive Bruins win.  Take the Bruins this time out.

Bryant is the #1 seed in the NEC Tournament, having earned that distinction by defeating Wagner in the final regular season game. They won their quarterfinal game pretty handily, though not by as much as the oddsmakers expected. It was a 73-59 win over Central Connecticut State on Wednesday.

Mount St. Mary’s is the 4-seed and beat St. Francis 78-48 to get here. That was a very impressive win for last year’s NEC Tourney champs as they were only seven-point favorites. 

Still, with Bryant having homecourt advantage for this one, the line looks low. Mount St. Mary’s has a 14-15 straight up record on the year and is 0-2 against Bryant, although one of the games was decided by just a single point.

The key though is Bryant’s 12-1 home record. This is a team that has lost just one time since Jan 6th. The Bulldogs are averaging 82.4 points in conference play while giving up just 73.3. 

MSM played a great game Wednesday, but had lost five of seven before that and only averages 61.7 PPG on the road. Lay the points.

"Can't score,can't defend" sums up both the Blackhawks and the Flyers these days.  Neither team impresses home or away, and both are playing back up goalies.  Chicago has won two of three, and has good news on the injury front, with three players returning including the capitan Toews.  Looking at other matches against poor defensive teams, the total has been over more than not.  Look for more scoring than usual and take the over.

Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion wrap up their regular seasons in Norfolk this afternoon. Both know where they’ll be seeded in the Conference USA Tournament. MTSU won the East Division and thus will get a bye into the quarterfinals. ODU finished fifth in the East and will be playing UTEP in a second round matchup.

With nothing really on the line here, you may be wondering why we’re playing this matchup. Well, Middle Tennessee has quietly had a VERY good year. The Blue Raiders are not just 22-8 straight up, but 21-6 against the spread. They are clearly the top threat to West Division Champ North Texas, who is the favorite heading into the C-USA Tournament.

The Blue Raiders beat Old Dominion by 15 when they hosted in Murfreesboro last month. It wasn’t a good shooting night for them, but they played great defense and limited the Monarchs to just 48 points and two made three-pointers.

MTSU is also coming off a rare loss, which is why I’m on them here. They fell 60-56 in Charlotte on Wednesday. Before that, the Blue Raiders had won eight in a row straight up and covered seven straight games.

ODU is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games and is pretty outclassed here. Not sure why they’re favored.

These are two teams desperate for a win. Alabama is only 3-13 ATS in SEC play and just lost outright, by 16, as a 10-point home favorite to Texas A&M. That same night, LSU came up a point short against Arkansas. They at least covered, which was their third straight win at the pay window.

Both teams are considered safe for the NCAA Tournament. Neither can earn a top four spot in the SEC Tournament, but today’s result will affect seeding. Expect a high-scoring game with Alabama involved. 

Despite shooting only 31.3% from three, the Crimson Tide is averaging 80.2 points/game this year. The problem is - when they get out on the road - they give up 80.5 points per game.

LSU has scored 75 or more in four of its last five contests. The Tigers lost the first meeting with Alabama, 70-67 in Tuscaloosa, but attempted only 15 free throws and made just nine. At home, they’ll get more chances from the charity stripe here.

Alabama is a perfect 6-0 Over as an underdog this season.

Denver had its season-best six-game win streak come to an end in shocking fashion Wednesday night. They lost to the lowly Thunder, at home no less, 119-107 as a 14.5-point favorite. Now they’ll host the only team lower than the Thunder in Western Conference standings, that being Houston. I don’t see the Nuggets making the same mistakes they did two nights ago.

Houston has not won a game since February 2nd. They’ve lost 11 straight and have a legit claim to be the worst team in the league. Seven of those 11 straight losses have come by double digits. 

Making matters worse tonight for the Rockets is that they could be without several key players. Dennis Schroeder has a sprained ankle, Eric Gordon missed the last game with a groin injury and Jae’Sean Tate is also dealing with an ankle. While they were still able to take Utah to overtime on Wednesday, I can’t see a potentially short-handed, bad team being competitive two straight times. Houston is 0-4 ATS off its previous four ATS victories.

The Nuggets are 2-0 against the Rockets so far this season. While the first game came down to the final possession, it was a 13-point win in Houston on New Year’s Day. I expect this to be the biggest margin of victory to date.

Denver is 4-0-1 ATS off its previous five ATS losses. So all signs point to a bounce back here. 

The Lightning were embarrassed by the Penguins and will be out for blood against Detroit on Friday.  Tampa Bay is a very good home team, and will seriously test the Red Wings' 30th rated defense.  Tampa seems impervious to a drop-off in back-to-back situations, although with Elliot in net, they will likely give up a litttle extra on goals against.

The over has figured prominently for both teams, but especially Detroit.  It is hard to forget that NFL-worthy score against the Leafs.  Detroit's offense is certainly better than their defense, averaging 4 goals-for per game over their last 7, win or lose.  Friday's likely starter Nedeljovic has had some very poor outings, but he doesn't get much support.  Detroit may be better rested, but i am looking for a rebound from the Lightning.  By all rights, this game should go over..

Incredibly, Loyola Chicago slipped to the 4-seed for the Missouri Valley Tournament. The Ramblers had a chance to win the conference outright, but lost on the final day of the regular season, 102-96 to Northern Iowa in overtime, then fell victim to tiebreakers. I think they should still be considered the favorite to win this particular tourney.

In the quarterfinals, they’ll face Bradley, who is the 5-seed. Neither team had to win to get here. Bradley finished the regular season at 17-13 SU overall, 11-7 in conference play. Loyola was 22-7 SU overall, 13-5 in conference play.

The two regular season meetings were both won by the home team. Loyola won 78-71 in its gym, only for Bradley to return the favor in a much lower-scoring game, 68-61. It will be interesting to see how things play out here in St. Louis.

This seems like a low total. Not saying that just because of how high-scoring Loyola’s last game was (and it was 85-85 at the end of regulation). But both of these squads’ games have averaged just over 136 points over the course of the whole season.

Loyola shoots nearly 39% from three and is 13-4 Over this year when the total falls between 130 and 139.5. They have topped 80 in regulation each of the last two games. Bradley should score enough here as well; they’ve gone Over six of the last seven times they’ve been an underdog.

The Lakers are in serious trouble. Seven games below .500 and in 9th place in the Western Conference. All they can hope for at this point is making the play-in round, which means they’d probably need to win twice to get into the playoffs proper. 

One spot ahead of the Lakers are the Clippers, but the gap in the standings is 4.5 games. The reason the Clips are lower than expected is due to injuries. They’ve been playing without their two top superstars for awhile now. Kawhi Leonard hasn’t even suited up for a single game this season.

So who is going to take this battle of underachieving teams from the City of Angels? I like the Lakers. They should have beaten Dallas on Tuesday. It’s also time for a little payback. The Lakers are 0-3 vs. the Clippers this season, but those three losses have been by a total of eight points. 

The Clippers’ four-game win streak does include a 105-102 win over the Lakers. But the other three wins were all against Houston. So it’s a bit of a “phony” win streak. 

The Lakers led the Clippers going into the fourth quarter in that recent meeting. With their backs against the wall, look for LeBron James and company to “step up” here and deliver a big win.

The Oilers are 2-2 on an extended road trip, but they have kept it close with the best teams in the league, and have won 7 of their last 10. Goalie Mike Smith has had some issues since returning from extended absences, but is a quality goalie who appears to be rounding into form. The Oilers can score with the best of them, and badly outmatch the Blackhawks on offense and special teams. The Blackhawks are 3-7, a poor home team, with significant injuries and nothing to play for. Their defense is sub-par and offense is 3rd worst in the league.

Why then are the Oilers such a weak favorite on Thursday? While the Oilers haven’t played Chicago this year, they have lost 4 straight in Chicago and there are still question marks around Smith, I suppose. As the saying goes “that was then and this is now.” Give me the Oilers at these odds any day.

Two of the more downtrodden teams in the Pac 12 meet here with California and Arizona State both trying to create some momentum before the conference tournament. The Golden Bears enter off an ugly 53-39 win over Stanford, which improved their record to 12-17 overall and 5-13 in conference play. The Sun Devils have won two in a row, beating Colorado and Utah on the road.

Going back a bit more, ASU has won five of its last six. They are now 12-16 overall, but 8-10 in Pac 12 play, so they are still in the mix for a decent seed. That’s unlike Cal, who will be a bottom three seed in the tournament.

This promises to be a very low-scoring game. Just look at the score from Cal’s last game. They only allowed 39 points! Problem is, they’ve scored less than 60 themselves in back to back contests. Well, that’s not a problem when you’re taking the Under!

Over it’s last six games, Arizona State has allowed an average of only 59.5 points per game. 

The Under is 6-0 when ASU is a favorite this year and 10-3 in all of their home games.

South Alabama is seeded fifth, but the Jaguars just might be the best team in the Sun Belt. They absolutely could make a run in this tournament. It starts on Thursday when they play a first round matchup against last place Little Rock. Expect this one to be a blowout.

Little Rock obviously did not have a good year. The Trojans finished 8-18 overall and 3-13 in conference play. They were even worse than the oddsmakers though, evident by a lousy 5-16 ATS record as an underdog. On the road, they were beaten by an average of 16.3 points per game.

The regular season ended very poorly for Little Rock. They’ve lost four in a row and 9 of 10. Eight of those nine losses were by double digits. Six were by at least 15 points.

These teams met once in the regular season. South Alabama won 77-46 as a 14.5 point favorite. Down 17 at halftime, Little Rock was never competitive. 

USA won its regular season finale, beating UT Arlington 62-52 last Friday. Look for them to make a statement in the opening game of this tourney. 

Miami is currently on the right side of the bubble, but they need a strong final week of the regular season. The Hurricanes have lost two of their last three games, both losses at home, to fall into fourth place in the ACC. 

Tonight looks like a great chance to get back on track as the Canes travel to face Boston College. Note that they have won three in a row on the road. The last road win was by 21 at Pittsburgh, a team who has a comparable record to BC. 

Miami has too much offense for their hosts today. The visitors are 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh best in turnover rate. They average 74.7 points per game. 

BC has lost six of eight and just went down by 10 to Clemson here at home on Saturday. It was the Eagles’ seventh loss by double digits since Jan 19th.

Miami has been good on the road. They are 8-2 straight up and against the spread. So lay the small number.

The Kings were dethroned by the Bruins in their last game, but won the previous 5 prior to laying that egg, averaging 4 + goals scored. LA is a very good road team, with solid defense, but their goal-tending has been sub-par lately.

The Stars are very strong at home, and have produced offensively well above their average when in the confines of their home arena. They have a middle-brow offense but do have a distinct advantage on the power play, and the Kings are not the most disciplined of teams.

The winner is a toss-up, but I like the total in this match-up. The Stars are prone to low totals except in a “home favorite” situation, and lately the Kings’ games have trended over. Wednesday’s number is low. Take the over.

I had (and won with) Orlando when these teams met on Monday. It was the Magic’s second straight win. Both games they scored exactly 119 points. 

Indiana is just 4-13 over its last 17 games and has basically “disassembled” its roster. One thing they can do though is score. Prior to losing here on Monday, the Pacers had scored 112 or more in seven consecutive games. 

The problem is, the Pacers have also allowed at least 119 points in six of the last eight games. 

This is a pretty high total. But two trends to consider with Indiana. They are 22-8 Over the last 30 times the total has been 230 or higher. They are also 19-8 Over as a favorite this year.

I like tonight’s game to be higher scoring than Monday’s. Somewhere along the lines of the first meeting when the Magic and Pacers combined for 237 points. Take the OVER

The first of four first round games in the Big South Tournament today pits North Carolina A&T against Radford. These teams are seeded 8th (Radford) and 9th (NC A&T). The winner will move on to face top seed Longwood in the quarterfinals on Friday.

This entire tournament is played in Charlotte. There was no home court advantage when these teams met twice in the regular season as the road team won both games. NC A&T and Radford are no strangers to one another as they just played in the regular season finale on Saturday, with Radford winning 63-52. 

The teams combined to shoot 7 of 36 on three-pointers. They were 40 of 108 overall, which is very bad. It was a far cry from the first meeting when the teams combined to make 15 of 37 three-pointers and NC A&T shot 56% overall. 

It was an easy Under on Saturday as the total was roughly the same as it is here. Radford is 6-1 to the Under in its last seven games against sub-.500 teams. NC A&T is 4-0 Under this season following a game where they failed to score more than 60 points.

The Highlanders are also 4-0 Under when on a losing streak of three or more games. They’ve lost four in a row and 9 of 11. Take the Under this morning.

Arizona and USC are set to tangle here in a battle of Top 25 teams out of the Pac 12. Arizona stayed ranked #2 (in the country) despite losing Saturday. It was only their third loss of the season and most of the teams in the Top 10 also lost. USC is up to #16 after winning its last six games, the last three being decided by a total of just SIX points. 

You should expect this game to see a lot of scoring. Arizona plays at the sixth fastest tempo in the country and also averages 84.4 points per game, third most in the country. USC is averaging 76.6 points per game here at home. 

With Arizona having just scored only 63 points (on 39.2% shooting) in the loss to Colorado on Saturday, it’s quite reasonable to expect them to have a bounce back game at the offensive end. They are looking to clinch the Pac 12 regular season title. The 63 points in the last game represented their low benchmark for February. 

USC did not shoot well the first time they faced Arizona, making just 34.3% of their shots. They were really bad from three. But they’ll shoot better at home. They should also look to go inside as Arizona just gave up 54 points in the paint to Colorado. Like Arizona, USC is one of the taller teams in the country. 

Take the Over in this one.

The Wild are in an “away and home” series vs the Flames, with Calgary winning the first leg easily. Minnesota has been on the road for 4 straight games, losing 3 of them. Talbot is projected to be in the net, and has been struggling with three straight sub-par outings.

The Flames are 9-1, and other than an oddity vs. the Canucks, are holding teams to an average of less than 2 goals a game. A very balanced team at present, the Flames have had good recent success vs the Wild in Minnesota, and are the better team in defense, goaltending and special teams. No slouches on offense, they have outscored many of their opponents by a wide margin.

The Wild are struggling for the first time this season, winning just 4 of 10 games. The Flames are hard to bet against at the best of times, but especially as slight underdogs. Take the Flames to win today.

So the Celtics had been the hottest team in the NBA before losing 128-107 at Indiana, in the second half of a back to back on Sunday. They look to get “back on track” here when they host Atlanta.

The Hawks have been playing better the last month or so, but are still only tied for 9th in the Eastern Conference. Twice in the last three games they’ve won by more than 20 points. Against Toronto on Saturday, the Hawks shot a blistering 57.8 percent from the field.

Don’t look for them to shoot that well again here. Boston has been one of the league’s top defensive teams during their run. The Celtics now rank second for the year in defensive efficiency and fourth in points allowed. 

Yet the last five Celtics’ games have all gone Over the total, which seems odd. Indiana’s 52.2% shooting on Sunday represented the highest percentage by any Celtics’ opponent since early December. 

What I look for here is a relatively low-scoring affair between two teams looking to improve their respective positions in the standings. This game should have the “feel” of a playoff contest. The Under is 6-0 this season when Boston is at home and the total is 220 points or higher. 

The Devils are off a big win but play in back to back games on the road on Tuesday.  It will likely be Gillies in net, a step down from Dawes.  The Devils have stepped it up in offense lately.  They've scored 36 goals in 7 games, and are up against the 31st ranked defense in Columbus.  The Blue Jackets are one of the few teams with a worse defense than the Devils this season.  Columbus can also flash a little offense, especially against the weaker teams. They have had some surprising victories lately and are a very good home team.  The Devils have been doormats on the road, and very poor when playing on the 2nd game in two days.  Given the situation, I expect another high total with offense shared by both teams.  Take the over.

This is a first round matchup in the Patriot League Tournament where all games are played at campus sites (higher seed always gets to host). Both American U and Holy Cross finished with the same overall record (9-21 SU), but the latter did better in conference play, finishing 7-11 as opposed to 5-13 for the former.

Playing at home is key here for Holy Cross, even though they last won here on February 9th. It’s just a small number we have to lay and the Crusaders have double revenge. That’s right. Two of American’s five league wins came against HC.

I just can’t see the underdog sweeping the season series. Holy Cross averaged just 51.5 points per game in the two regular season losses. I expect much better from them offensively here tonight. 

American U won its final regular season game, beating Loyola MD 65-55. However, the Eagles have failed to win back to back games going all the way back to mid-December. I just think the odds are against them winning here.

For what it’s worth, Holy Cross has covered the spread in 14 of its last 17 games played on Tuesday.

Providence has already wrapped up the Big East, the first time it has EVER won the conference outright. But there is still a sense of motivation for this one as they look to avoid a season sweep against Villanova.

I think that most would agree that ‘Nova is in fact the better team here. The “analytics” don’t love Providence, mostly because of all the close wins the Friars have. But that has led to them getting a lot of points tonight. It’s too many. We’ll take a close loss! 

To be clear, Providence is 24-3 this year. They lost the first meeting with Villanova by just five points. They are not just 7-1 ATS as an underdog, but also 7-1 straight up! This is a lot of points for the #8 ranked team in the country to be getting. 

Though it’s their final home game and they haven’t played in a week, ‘Nova doesn’t have much motivation here. At least not to win by a double digit margin. They lost to UConn by two last Tuesday.

Three of the previous four meetings have been decided by five points or less. So take the points.

The Canucks are off an inspiring victory against the Rangers, but play in a back-to-back situation without Demko in net. Halak will start, and he has not played much or well lately. The Canucks offense has finally started to come alive, and is on a roll, averaging well over 5 goals a game in their last 5 starts. There is just the barest chance that they will make the playoffs.

The Devils are at home, have an extra couple of days rest, and have absolutely owned the Canucks, winning 11 straight. They too are scoring at a good clip, potting 30 goals in their last 6 games. The Devils’ goaltending situation is a mess, and they are well down the list in choices. The likely starter is Gillies, who has struggled badly lately, with a 29th rated defense for support.

The total is surprisingly low for this situation.  Jump on this one early!

Two of the Eastern Conference’s bottom teams square off to start the week. I believe this is a wonderful opportunity for Orlando to make it a rare two straight wins.

The Magic won on Friday, beating the Houston Rockets here at home, 119-111. Both Chuma Okeke and Wendell Carter Jr played well. Tonight, Okeke and Carter are set to be joined by former #1 overall pick Markelle Fultz, who is set to make his season debut.

As was the case Friday, Orlando is the slight favorite in this game. Indiana, though they won yesterday, is just 4-12 over its last 16 games and basically “disassembled” its roster at the trade deadline. There has been just one time since mid-December that the Pacers have won back to back games.

The fact that the Pacers are in the second game of a back to back while the Magic had the weekend off is a big edge to the home team. 

Orlando overcame a 17-point third quarter deficit to win in Indiana at the beginning of the month. They shouldn’t fall into that kind of hole tonight. Expect them to get the ‘W’ here.

Hofstra seems locked into third place in the CAA and very well could be taking on tonight’s opponent, Charleston, in the first round of the Conference Tournament. So there’s really nothing on the line in this Monday matchup. But, in their final home game, I look for the Pride to turn in a solid effort to end the regular season.

Charleston has been competitive of late, covering the number in four straight games. But they lost Saturday, 80-79 at Drexel, to fall a game below .500 this year in conference play. Tonight will mark the Cougars’ fourth consecutive game on the road. That’s a tough way to end the regular season and the team may very well be “out of gas.”

As for Hofstra, this is their fourth straight time playing at home. They had no problem dispatching William & Mary on Saturday, winning that game 83-67. That followed a shocking 81-55 loss to Elon. The Pride have failed to cover the number three straight times, but were also double digit favorites in all those games.

This is a solid value, I believe, on Hofstra at home. They are 11-2 SU in home games this season. Also, they defeated Charleston on the road, back in late January. 

Key to this one is that Charleston is a poor defensive team that has given up an average of 82 points over its last four games. Hofstra has scored 76 or more in five of its last six. Lay the points.

Golden State’s second half of the season began with a convincing 132-95 win over Portland. Dallas blew a seven-point halftime lead in Utah and lost 114-109. That’s the setup for this Sunday night contest.

Yes, the Warriors had failed to cover six in a row going into the All Star Break. But they looked like the best team in the league Thursday, mostly because of Steph Curry, who had a season-high 14 assists to go along with 18 points.

These teams have met two times previous to this. The home team won both matchups. Curry struggled to make shots, but I’m banking on him having a big game here. Dallas didn’t have many answers defensively against Utah, allowing the Jazz to hit 54% for the game and 57% in the first half.

This is a low number on the Warriors at home. Too low.

That’s because Klay Thompson is questionable and Draymond Green is still out. But Curry should lead his team to a win and cover tonight. 

DePaul and St. John’s both find themselves in the bottom half of the Big East standings. Both are also coming off a game that was decided by three points. The difference is that St. John’s lost on Wednesday, 81-78 to Creighton, while DePaul was a 68-65 winner over Georgetown on Thursday.

The win for DePaul was their first since February 9th, also against Georgetown. In between the two wins over the Hoyas, the Blue Demons dropped four straight. But three of those losses were by three points or less, so they easily could have had a better record this month. They were up 19 in the second half against Providence and lost that game in overtime.

St. John’s blew a seven-point halftime lead to Creighton and lost for the third time in the last five games. The biggest problem facing the Red Storm is that they don’t play much defense, especially on the road where they are giving up 78.5 points/game.

The Johnnies did beat DePaul 89-84 at home last month. But they’ve been far too inconsistent to expect a season sweep. 

DePaul averages 76.5 points at home and is 3-0 ATS this season off a Big East win.

Big game on this afternoon’s NBA schedule with the Jazz taking on the Suns. The Suns are playing without Chris Paul and are off a loss. Paul being out hurts, but Phoenix is 19-2 over its last 21 games and has the best record in the league. They have not dropped consecutive games since December.

For those reasons, I’m siding with the Suns in this one. They are also at home on Sunday. Their home record is 26-6. 

The Suns are 2-0 vs. the Jazz this season. Both wins were in January. They won 115-109 here at home and 105-97 in Salt Lake City.

Utah needed to come from behind to defeat Dallas Friday night, 114-109. The Jazz did not cover the spread in the game. They trailed by seven at halftime. That was the largest halftime deficit they’ve overcome all season.

The fact that the Suns haven’t lost back to back games in over two months weighs heavily on this selection. So too does the fact they are basically a “pick ‘em” at home. You won’t get a better value on this team all season.

Blues/Blackhawks

Wins have been few and far between for the Blackhawks lately. Fleury does his best, but has the 24th ranked defense in front of him. Don’t count on a ton of goals scored by the Hawks. They are in the bottom three in the league on offense, and most of their losses are lopsided.

St Louis has won 5 of their last 6, including a decisive victory against the Black Hawks. They have a very respectable offense this year, and all of their victories have been by 2 or more goals recently. They give up well under three goals a game on average.

Every game is important for the playoff-bound Blues, while the Blackhawks are likely already longing for the links with the way this season is going. The Blues are not the best road team, but Chicago is worse at home than on the road this year. The Blues are a strong favorite, but I am ok with the extra points in this match-up. Take the Blues - 1 ½.

Illinois (19-8 overall, 12-5 Big 10) is coming off an 86-83 home loss to Ohio State on Thursday, which knocked the Fighting Illini a game back of conference leaders Wisconsin and Purdue. I like them to bounce back here on Sunday,

We know that Michigan is without coach Juwan Howard, who is suspended for five games due to the post-game fight with Wisconsin. The Wolverines did show some resolve by going out and beating Rutgers 71-62 on Wednesday, here in Ann Arbor. Michigan is now 8-4 in its last 12 games and their NCAA Tournament prospects are looking a lot better.

But I simply think that the Illini are the better team here. They won the season’s first meeting, 68-53 as a 9.5-point favorite. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the last four games against Michigan.

Michigan has been far more inconsistent this year. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. They are just 15-11 straight up this year and rate lower than Illinois in both offensive and defensive efficiency. 

Illinois is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in its last four games as a road favorite of three points or less. 

This game does not have the luster that was originally anticipated as the Nets are without Kevin Durant (injured) and James Harden (traded). Struggling to stay healthy, Brooklyn has dropped 13 of its last 15 games. They were 129-106 losers to Boston on Thursday and offered little resistance at the defensive end. 

This is Milwaukee’s first game since the All-Star Break. Their last seven games before the time off all went Over the total. That’s the way I expect this one to go. In five of those seven games, the Bucks scored 120 or more.

We saw just how little defense the Nets play when they allowed the Celtics to shoot 54.1 percent overall and 40.5 percent on three point attempts.  The Bucks will have no issue scoring tonight. 

But what about their defense? The Bucks are giving up an average of 122.2 points their last five games. That’s not good at all. 

Expect a ton of points in this game. Take the Over.

Rice has a wonderful opportunity to win big in its last home game of the season. The Owls are hosting Southern Miss, who is Conference USA’s worst team. The visitors are 6-22 overall this season, 1-14 in conference play. Their last win over a Division I opponent was back on January 6th, by a single point.

Two of Southern Miss’ four wins over DI teams this year have been by a single point. So it’s been a bleak year in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles have lost 11 in a row and 10 of those losses have been by double digits.

Rice has lost four straight and five of six, but the last two games were decided by a total of six points. There should be ample motivation to give the seniors one final big win at home tonight. Back on January 29th, the Owls beat Southern Miss by 14 on the road.

Rice scored 52 points in the second half Thursday. They are averaging 77.9 points at home. Southern Miss averages just over 60 PPG on the road.

Lastly, Rice is a perfect 6-0 against the spread the last three seasons when playing at home and the total is between 145 and 149.5.

The Penguins are off an embarrassing loss to the Devils.  Jarry and the defense have not been solid since the break, with Pittsburgh losing three straight, giving up 14 goals and scoring just  5.  Is this just a blip or a sign of a more serious swoon?

The Rangers are 3-1 since the break, with Shesterkin absolutely lights-out.  He is a rare goaltender who can be a game-changer.  The Rangers have nudged the Penguins aside in the standings, and while they haven't been successful on the road against the Penguins in the past, they are a very good away team this season.  The Penguins are a considerable favorite, but I am not convinced that they will return to form against a very fast and potent Rangers offense. I'll take the underdog Rangers, but will hedge my bet on the puck line.  Rangers + 1 1/2.

Oakland has faded a bit in the Horizon League title chance, losing three straight to fall to 11-7 in conference play and 18-11 overall. That’s three games back of current leader Cleveland State, whom the Golden Grizzlies will play host to this afternoon. I like them to get the job done here. 

Going back to January 20th, Oakland is just 1-10 against the spread. They have been the favorite for all of those games, except one, a 75-64 loss at Wright State. Their three straight losses have all been here at home, which is shocking as the Golden Grizzlies had previously not lost a home game all season. 

Cleveland State is also coming off a loss, 74-67 at Detroit. This will be the Vikings’ fifth consecutive road game to end the regular season. Meanwhile, it’s the final home game (Senior Night) for Oakland.

While Cleveland State is looking to wrap up the regular season championship, Oakland is desperate to build some momentum for the upcoming Conference Tournament. They defeated Cleveland State, 70-65, as a 1-point road underdog earlier in the season.

I can’t see Oakland losing again at home as CSU should be pretty spent, having played so many road games in a row.

There are four ranked teams in the Big 12 (Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas) that are the class of the conference. After that, there’s a bit of a drop. Neither Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have had much reason to celebrate lately, as the former is 3-7 its last 10 games and the latter is 2-11 its last 13 games. But someone will have to prevail in “Bedlam” on Saturday.

When these teams met on ⅖, the Cowboys prevailed 64-55 in Stillwater. But now the Sooners get the game in Norman with a shot at revenge. OU is off back to back 20+ point losses as well. So they are really desperate here.

OSU lost by two at home to Baylor on Monday. The game went to overtime. I had the Cowboys, plus the points, so at the end of the day, I was happy. But OSU has to be a bit deflated, especially with that being their fifth OT game this season.

The Cowboys are also banned from postseason play, so you’ve got to question their level of motivation down the stretch. Off an ATS win, they are 2-7 ATS this season. They last covered two straight games in November.

The revenge angle and home court advantage should propel Oklahoma to a win Saturday. They’ve lost four in a row to their rivals. They won’t lose again. Lay the short number. 

The Spurs are better than their record and I think can move up to “steal” the last play-in spot for the Western Conference Playoffs. Among teams out West, San Antonio has the eighth best point differential.

The Wizards started the season well, but have really fallen off, especially at the pay window. They are 4-15-1 ATS over the L20 games. Tonight’s spread is simply not generous enough for them to turn these woes around.

San Antonio has covered six straight times against teams with losing SU records. Washington comes in at 27-31 SU overall, 11th in the East. But like I said, the Wizards have really fallen off. It wasn’t that long ago they were in the top six.

The Spurs are still on their annual Rodeo Road Trip, which began back on Feb 9 in Cleveland. Prior to breaking for All Star Weekend, they’d won three of four. The only loss was to Eastern Conference leader Chicago and even in that game they had the lead going into the fourth quarter. 

Washington is just 5-12 ATS vs. Western Conference teams this season.

Blue Jackets/Hurricanes

Friday’s match-up pits the NHL’s 2nd rated defense (‘Canes) against the 31st (Blue Jackets). Columbus’s goalie situation is such that 20 year old Jet Greaves, fresh from the AHL, will likely start in net. The Blue Jackets have won 7 of 8, scoring an average of 4.5 goals a game. They won convincingly on Thursday night against the Panthers, but are on a back to back on Friday. Columbus is under .500 on the road.

The Hurricanes have won three straight, are dominant on home ice, healthy, and well rested. Defensively, they have given up a steady diet of 3 goals in 5 straight games. I like Carolina in this situation, but so do the odds-makers. Looking at the total, we have seen some remarkably high numbers in Blue Jackets games, finishing between 7 and 11 goals in their last five games. Losing D-man Werenski and playing a raw rookie in net won’t help. The Canes can put the puck in the net. This one could get wild. Take the Over..

Elsewhere, I’ve got a play on the top MAAC team against the bottom MAAC team. Here, we venture to the middle of the conference standings for a game between Manhattan and Marist. I think the value resides with the dog in this one as they won the first meeting.

It was 72-66 in favor of Manhattan, back on Jan 30th, when these teams first met. The Jaspers proceeded to lose their next four games, but now have won three straight and can pass Marist for fifth place in the conference. Why is that important? Because the top five teams get first round byes in the conference tournament.

After losing five in a row, Marist has now won five in a row. Two of those wins were by just a point though and they were against Qunnipiac and Canisius, who are at the bottom of the league. In another recent win (last Friday vs. Siena), the Red Foxes were down seven at the half.

Not only is Marist just 1-8 against the spread in its last nine tries as a favorite, but the team that has been the underdog has covered four of the last five meetings in this MAAC rivalry. Take the points.

This is a mismatch, an even bigger one than what the line suggests. Iona leads the MAAC with a 14-2 conference record. They are 11-0 at home, winning by 12.5 points per game. Tonight they can wrap up the regular season title simply by defeating last place Canisius. Look for this to be a blowout.

Iona won the first meeting by eight. But the 70-62 final was a little misleading in the sense that the Gaels were up 19 at the half. It was 35-12 just 15 minutes into the game. 

Canisius hasn’t won on the road all year. They are 0-14 away from home as they are shooting just 38.2 percent from the field.

In their last game, the Golden Griffins scored just 54 points in a home loss to Niagara. That was their seventh loss in the last eight games.

Iona ran out to an 18-point victory over Fairfield their last time on the court. That was here at home on Sunday. They used a big second half to cover the 11-point spread. I just can’t see this being a close game. Lay the points.

I like Northwestern here in a battle of two of the five Big 10 teams that aren’t projected to make the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats picked up a win earlier this week, at home, 77-65 over Nebraska. Now they look to avenge a four-point home loss where they were eight-point favorites.

That first meeting was a little odd. Penn State won because they controlled the glass (40-28 edge in rebounds) and made more free throws (15) than Northwestern even attempted (nine). 

The Nittany Lions are 308th in the country in points per game, so unless they can replicate those edges in rebounding and free throw shooting, I don’t see them outscoring Northwestern tonight.

PSU lost on Monday, 67-61 at Maryland, and you may remember that I took the Terps in that game. The Nittany Lions lost even though Maryland did not make a basket over the game’s final 6:20. Bad sign. 

Northwestern has covered all four times this season when matched up against an opponent with a losing record.

This sets up as the Game of the Year in the Ohio Valley Conference with #19 Murray State hosting its top challenger Belmont. The teams are separated by two games, meaning Belmont cannot win the OVC regular season title outright. Murray State is a perfect 16-0 in the league, South Dakota State and Gonzaga are the only other teams in the country that haven’t lost a single conference game.

I look for the teams to get off to a fast start in this one. The first time they played, it was a 48-35 game at halftime and Murray State ended up winning 82-60. Belmont shot very poorly that day, connecting on only 40.7% of their shots and going 5 of 23 from three-point range. 

Expect the Bruins to shoot a lot better tonight. They have not lost since January 20th and come in averaging 79.1 points per game. They are shooting almost 50% overall for the season.

Murray State averages 79.7 points per game this season and at home they are averaging almost 90 points per game! The Racers shoot 51.4% in home games where they have not lost in 2021-22. 

Murray State got off to a slow start in its last game (eventually beat UT Martin 62-60), which is why I’m anticipating a fast start here. Belmont only made 6 of 26 threes against SIU Edwardsville and left some points at the free throw line. Take the OVER.