The set-up: Houston roared back to beat Toronto 7-6 at home last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Tampa Bay had the night off on Wednesday. The visitors go with Lance McCullers on the mound this evening, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek.

The pitchers: McCullers is so far 8-3 with a 3.82 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off four hits and two walks while striking out nine over six innings in a no-decision to Kansas City. Over his last 31 frames of work McCullers has posted a strong 3.48 ERA and 31/11 K:BB.

Stanek is so far 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA. Stanek is only expected to see an inning or two, before making way for Ryan Yarbrough. He’s been good in his limited action, but clearly the book is still out on his overall performance to this point.

The pick: While Tampa has looked better overall of late, it’s still just 22-28 against teams with winning records this year. Houston continues to impress and it’ll look to take advantage of this favorable matchup on the mound as it comes in having gone 25-9 this season against clubs with losing records. Here’s a great opportunity for McCullers. No upset here, lay the price.

The set-up: The Phillies took two of three from the Nationals in the nation’s capital last week. Last night Philadelphia held on for a 3-0 win over the Yankees at home. Tanner Roark and Washington are back tonight, so the home side will counter with its ace Aaron Nola.

The pitchers: Roark is so far 3-8 with a 4.27 ERA. Roark comes in off an outing to forget against Philadelphia on Friday, allowing six runs over 4.1 innings. Roark’s peripherals suggest that rockier times are ahead as well, as his 7.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 both point to regression sooner rather than later.

Nola is so far 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA. Nola most recently gave up two runs off four hits and three walks over six innings while also striking out five in Washington last weekend. Nola has to be feeling confident tonight as well as he’s 6-0 with a 1.86 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Philadelphia has looked a lot better at the plate of late, as it produced considerable production in Washington last weekend. This play comes down to the starting pitchers for me though and in my opinion, Nola has a massive advantage over Roark. Lay the price, play on the Phillies.

The set-up: A couple of capable southpaws square off against each other in this National League series on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, runs definitely will be at a premium. The Cubs go with Jose Quintana, while the Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw.

The pitchers: Quintana is so far 6-6 with a 4.26 ERA. Quintana comes in off an outing to forget against the Reds on Friday, giving up four runs off nine hits with two walks over five frames while striking out three. I think it’s important to note though that Quintana has been solid on the road with a 3.22 ERA, compared to a shaky 6.00 ERA at home.

Kershaw is so far 1-4 with a 2.94 ERA. Kershaw most recently gave up two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out four over three innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Saturday. Kershaw was under a pitch count in his first start back from the DL, but he’ll be given a bigger leash this afternoon. Note that he owns a 2.10 ERA in all “day” games to this point.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 15 against southpaws this year, while LA has seen the total go “under” in 20 of 27 against left-handed starters this season. Expect a tight battle into the latter innings and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the afternoon.

The set-up: Last time out Belgium demolished Tunisia 5-2 to move to 2-0 in group action, while England smashed Panama 6-1, also pushing its record to a perfect 2-0. These countries have already moved onto the Knock-Out round, but each will be eager to cap off the group stage with another victory. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the Tournament so far and everything points to more offensive fireworks on Tuesday afternoon.

The teams: The Belgians scored 43 goals over ten games during qualifying. Romelu Lukaku has been impressive early on in this tournament, but Belgium will also be leaning on Kevin De Bruyne, as he posted 11 goals during qualifying, while also scoring 16 goals for Man U this season.

Harry Kane leads the 2018 World Cup in goals scored after posting three in his team’s demolition of Panama. Kane will be forced to keep up his frantic pace facing the high-flying Belgians this afternoon.

The pick: Belgium has been susceptible on the back end, so England’s game plan should be to push the pace and attack. The English haven’t been tested defensively yet, but the Three Lions face their most difficult task yet. When you add it all up, the “over” is the correct call in my opinion.

The set-up: Zack Greinke’s ERA and WHIP are aligning with his career numbers for the Diamondbacks as we approach the half way point. Marlins rookie Trevor Richards has looked brilliant at times and very pedestrian in others so far this season. While Richards’ potential seems tremendous at this point, I still think that the veteran Greinke is the correct call in this matchup.

The pitchers: Greinke is so far 7-5 with a 3.66 ERA. Greinke comes in off a victory over Pittsburgh on Saturday, giving up two hits with seven strikeouts over six scoreless. Greinke threw 53 of his 88 pitches for strikes on his way to his eighth quality start of the year.

Richards is so far 2-4 with a 4.91 ERA. Richards comes in off a strong outing against Colorado on Saturday, giving up one run off three hits over six innings. Starts like that though have been few and far between (just his third quality outing out of nine trips to the hill) though and while he’s been better at home than on the road, I still think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this matchup.

The pick: Because take it for what you will, but Arizona is already 3-1 (+1.7 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is 5-12 (-5.2 units) as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I expect Greinke to continue his progression with another strong outing. Lay the price.

The set-up: These teams played to a low-scoring battle in San Francisco’s 3-2 victory last night and in my opinion, everything once again points to a “duel” in the Bay on Wednesday. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner.

The pitchers: Freeland is so far 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Freeland most recently went six innings and gave up two runs while striking out four in a win over the Mets on Thursday. Over 90.1 frames of work he’s posted a 77:31 K/BB.

Bumgarner is so far 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA. Most recently he gave up three hits while walking two and striking out eight over eight scoreless in his first win of the year over the Padres on Thursday. Bumgarner threw 69 of his 100 pitches for strikes and after two mediocre outings after returning from the DL, the veteran clearly looks poised for another strong performance.

The pick: Dual-ing southpaws on Wednesday night. Recent form by Freeland suggests that he can continue his success, while Bumgarner is no doubt rounding into form as well. I’m expecting these horses to battle into the latter frames and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the night.

The set-up: Arizona grabbed the opener of this series 5-3 last night and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The Diamondbacks go with Robbie Ray, while the Marlins go with Wei-Yin Chen.

The pitchers: Ray is so far 2-0 with a 4.88 ERA. Ray completed two of three scheduled re-gab starts, but he has been given the green light to return to the rotation early. Ray was 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA last season, including 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA on the road. Ray will likely be on a bit of a count today, but I still think he’ll be more efficient than his erratic counterpart.

Chen is so far 2-4 with a 6.70 ERA. Most recently he was shelled for seven earned runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to the Rockies on Friday. To go along with his terrible ERA, Chen also sports a horrid 1.69 WHP over 49.2 frames of work. He’s been better at home than on the road, but he’s still an atrocious 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is already 17-9 (+9.4 units) against southpaws this year, while Miami is just 10-12 against left-handed pitching to this point. I’m banking on Ray to make the most of his time on the hill and for Chen to continue his steady decline down the proverbial crapper. Lay the price.

The set-up: After yesterday’s 6-0 setback, I think the home side offers great value to bounce back in the underdog role on Wednesday. The Yankees go with Luis Cessa, while the Phillies go with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Cessa is so far 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Cessa enters the rotation as a temporary sixth starter due to some upcoming scheduling issues. Cessa has shown plenty of promise, but he’s so far made all four of his appearances out of the bullpen. Note that he’ll be capped at around 70 to 80 pitches tonight.

Eflin is so far 5-2 with a 3.44 ERA. Eflin grabbed the victory Friday over the Nationals after allowing two runs and one walk with five strikeouts over five frames of work. Over his last four starts Eflin has gone 4-0 and posted a 2.28 ERA with 22 strikeouts and four walks spanning 23.2 innings of work. To go along with his overall respectable ERA, Eflin also has a sharp 9.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 49.2 frames. He’s been consistent at home a well with a 2-1, 3.63 ERA record.

The pick: The Yankees have an impressive line-up, but Eflin has a major advantage in this interleague matchup. Great value, play on the revenge-minded Phillies.

The set-up: Add Brazil to the list of World Cup heavyweights which has so far to this point underwhelmed (also Germany, France and Argentina.) After drawing in their opening game, the Brazilians managed a 2-0 win over Costa Rica, with both goals coming in stoppage-time. Serbia has the odds stacked against it here, needing an outright win to advance after falling 2-1 to Switzerland last time out. A win assures Brazil top spot in the group and a possible date against Germany in the second round.

The teams: The Selecao need just one point to qualify for the second round, but clearly Brazil won’t be leaving anything to chance. Neymar potted his first goal of the World Cup in the latest victory, his 56th for his country. Brazil has not been defeated since a friendly back in August and the 1-1 draw with Switzerland ended a run of clean sheets.

Serbia beat Costa Rica, but it came out flat in the second half against the Swiss and I think that collapse is going to weigh heavily collectively here as well. The Serbs had their golden opportunity to collect a full six points before facing off against Brazil, but they blew it. Captain Aleksandar Kolarov scored the winning goals against Costa Rica.

The pick: Brazil beat Serbia 1-0 in a friendly back in 2014, but I’m expecting a much more decisive outcome here. Neymar is on the scoreboard and Philippe Coutinho has three goals in his last three games. I look for the Selecao to put together their finest effort so far as they get ready for the Round of 16 and a potential blockbuster matchup with the Germans. Lay the price.

The set-up: Both teams are hungry for a victory. Mexico has so far claimed all six points with a 1-0 upset of Germany, followed by a 2-1 victory over South Korea. Sweden though comes in off a disappointing 2-1 loss to Germany, a game in which it held a 1-0 half-time lead. Neither of these teams is known for its overpowering offense and suffice it to say, I’m expecting another lower-scoring affair in the end in this one as well.

The teams: Mexico needs just one point to secure top spot in this group, so a draw would be completely satisfactory. The Mexicans have now lost just two of their last ten games across all competitions.

Sweden’s rock solid defense was cracked in stoppage-time last time out by a 95th minute miracle goal. Sweden is now tied with Germany on three points. Germany plays South Korea next, so Sweden will be looking for the outright victory today.

The pick: But that’s easier said than done against Mexico, which completely shut down the high-flying Germans and which has conceded just one goal so far through two fixtures. Mexico has plenty of talent, but note that it’s only scored three goals so far itself. Five of Mexico’s last six games across all competitions have fallen “under” the number and Sweden has kept a clean sheet in three of its last four. This one has “under” written all over it.

The set-up: The Cards scored the 4-0 win in the opener of this inter-league series and I think that runs will once again be at a premium on Tuesday night. The Tribe go with their ace Corey Kluber, while St. Louis goes with Carlos Martinez.

The pitchers: Kluber is so far 11-3 with a 2.10 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the White Sox on Wednesday, giving up one hit with one walk while striking out seven over seven scoreless. Kluber would throw 65 of his 96 pitches for strikes, while also inducing 15 swinging strikes. Kluber has now posted quality efforts in 15 of his 16 trips to the hill this year.

Martinez is so far 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA. Martinez hasn’t been at his best since returning from the DL, most recently he allowed seven runs off eight hits while striking out three over four innings in a setback to Milwaukee on Thursday. Martinez though has the track record and pedigree to return to form and he has to be feeling confident here, as he comes in with a sharp 2.29 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 12 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while St. Louis has seen the total go “under” in seven of eight inter-league contests (note as well that the Indians have seen the total go “under” in five of seven inter-league games.) This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Minnesota is the defending champ, but it comes into this one sitting at 7-6. The Lynx traded forward Natasha Howard to the Storm in the preseason and it’s clearly taken a toll on their chemistry to open the 2018 campaign. The Storm are 10-4 and they come in on a four-game win streak. Suffice it to say, I think Seattle can smell the blood in the water. 

The teams: Howard is expected to get her ring before the start of this game and then I’m expecting her to bring the thunder against her former team. Howard played in all 34 games the past two season with Minnesota, a key part in getting the Lynx to a pair of trips to the WNBA Finals. Howard is so far averaging 14.1 points, 6.8 boards and 1.9 blocks in 26.8 minutes for Seattle. Other stand out players include Sue Bird, Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd. 

The Lynx come in off an 88-73 win over lowly Las Vegas on Sunday, led by 23 points from Maya Moore. Sylvia Fowles added 20 points and ten boards. 

The pick: Note though that Seattle has been at its best on the road for bettors this season with a strong 4-1 ATS record. Conversely, Minnesota has been downright horrible in front of the home town crowd this year with a 1-4 ATS record. I’m banking on Howard and the Storm carrying over their momentum here. 

The set-up: Seattle came out on top 5-3 yesterday and I believe it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors go with James Paxton, while the home side goes with Kevin Gausman.

The pitchers: Paxton is so far 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA. Paxton enters off an outing to forget against the Yankees, giving up four earned runs over five innings. The hard-throwing southpaw would have nine strikeouts though. Another bright spot was that his fast ball touched 97 MPH at times. While he hasn’t been at his absolute best of late, I don’t think there’s any reason to push the panic button at this point. Note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.56 ERA on the road this season.

Gausman is so far 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA. Gausman most recently allowed two runs and four walks with four hits while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Thursday. Gausman hasn’t won since May 11th. Note that he’s 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA at home.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is 33-16 (+15.3 units) this year in all “night” games, while Baltimore is just 14-32 (-16.3 units) in in all “night” games. I’m banking on Paxton going farther than Gausman in this one. Lay the price, play on the Mariners.

The set-up: This is an important game for both teams. Denmark has four points, two behind France, but three ahead of Australia. The Danes will be eager to try and score the upset here. The French have earned six points over their first two games, but there’s room for concern, as they were unable to dominate their much weaker compeition.

The teams: Denmark opened its World Cup campaign with a 1-0 win over Peru thanks to Yussuf Poulsen’s marker. The Danes then followed that up with a 1-1 draw to Australia.

France had difficulties breaking down both Australia and Peru and not many back home are feeling too confident at the moment. Clearly a much more directed attack against Denmark would go a long way in calming some of the nerves. Note that Olivier Giroud has scored each of France’s last three goals against the Danes, most recently a brace in a 2-1 victory in October 2015.

The pick: History isn’t on Denmark’s side, which has lost four of its last five World Cup games vs. fellow European nations. So far the French attack has been lacklustre, but that said, they’ve still managed to get the job done. I think this one sets up well for France to finally break out with a big performance. Lay the price.

The set-up: The punchless Padres fell 3-2 in San Francisco last night and I think they’re going to struggle in the opener of this inter-league series as well. Texas took two of three from the Twins over the weekend, but it enters off a 2-0 road loss in the final yesterday afternoon. For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the Rangers. San Diego sends Joey Lucchesi to the hill, while Texas goes with Cole Hamels.

The pitchers: Lucchesi is so far 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA. Lucchesi returned from the DL on Wednesday to face the A’s and he’d be rocked for four runs off three hits over 1.2 frames of work. It’s hard to say where the rookie is at right now, but there’s no question that he enters another tough matchup on the road tonight.

Hamels is so far 4-6 with a 3.41 ERA. Hamels enters off a gem against the Royals on Tuesday, allowing one earned run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings. Hamels comes in sporting 92 strikeouts over 92.1 frames of work this year and note that he’s 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Neither team has done very well in interleague action this season, however note that the Padres are just 8-14 (-2.6 units) this year as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Texas is 3-1 (+1.4 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I think Hamels is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Play on Texas.

The set-up: Seattle’s Felix Hernandez has struggled at times this year and looked brilliant in others. The Orioles Andrew Cashner though has for the most part been a disappointment. Seattle has overcome the loss of slugger Robison Cano to become one of the league’s power teams and I think it opens this series with a decisive victory tonight.

The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 6-6 with a 5.14 ERA. Hernandez comes in off a strong showing against the Yankees in New York last Wednesday, giving up two runs off six hits while striking out six over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision in the end. Hernandez comes in off back-to-back strong outings, posting a 12:2 K/BB over 12 total innings of work.

Cashner is so far 2-8 with a 4.72 ERA. Cashner comes in off a decent showing as well, going four shutout innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Wednesday. Cashner was coming off the DL and with a break in the action due to rain, his start was ultimately cut short. Cashner though has been anything but reliable this season as he comes in sporting the poor 0-5, 5.22 ERA record at home.

The pick: Seattle is 22-16 (+6.7 units) on the road this year, while Baltimore is just 11-23 (-14.6 units) in all home games. I think “The King” can continue his momentum, while Cashner does indeed seem poised for a classic letdown. Play on Seattle.

The set-up: The Phillies took two of three in Washington over the weekend, but they lost the final 8-6 last night. The Yankees were also involved in a high-scoring, extra-inning slug-fest with Tampa, as they ultimately came out on the short-end of a 7-6 setback. Suffice it to say, I think runs are going to be much harder to come by in the opener of this interleague series. The visitors go with Jonathan Loaisiga, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez.

The pitchers: Loasigia is so far 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA. Loasiga’s debut saw him shut down the Rays, but he’d come back down to Earth in his second start by allowing three runs off six hits with four strikeouts over 3.2 innings in a no-decision against the Mariners last week. Loasigia has shown great potential and I think he’ll match his counterpart inning for inning.

Velasquez is so far 5-7 with a 4.82 ERA. Velasquez most recently gave up four runs off four hits over 6.1 innings while also striking out eight in a no-decision to St. Louis on Tuesday. Note that Velasquez owns a decent 1.28 WHIP to go along with a 97/29 K:BB over 80.1 innings.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York has already seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of nine inter-league contests this season. While these teams come in off a couple of high-scoring series, the opener of this one points to the “under” as the correct call.

The set-up: The Angels will be eager to get back on track here after the Blue Jays took two of three from them over the weekend. Here’s the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as the toothless Royals fell 11-3 in Houston yesterday afternoon. The visitors go with Tyler Skaggs on the mound this afternoon, while the home side goes with Brad Keller.

The pitchers: Skaggs is so far 6-4 with a 2.81 ERA. Skaggs’ last start was skipped over because of hamstring tightness, but he’s good to go tonight. Skaggs has been a pleasant surprise for the Angels this season and note that he’s been “lights out” on the road to this point as well with a 5-1, 2.27 ERA record.

Keller is so far 1-2 with a 2.63 ERA. Keller has made the most of his time in the rotation in place of the injured Eric Skoglund, but there’s no question that the rookie faces a stiff test tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is already 35-24 (+8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Kansas City is only 11-14 against southpaws. I think Skaggs overpowers this weak hitting Royals line-up, and I expect Keller to take a step back against the Angels power line-up. Lay the price, play on LA.

The set-up: Iran’s never made it out of the Group Stage in World Cup action, but if it can somehow pull off an upset against the 2016 Euro Champs, then it will accomplish just that. However Iran was lucky to have won its opening round match against Morocco, which posted a late own goal. Morocco dominated that contest and deserved to win. And then Iran lost 1-0 to Spain. Portugal tied Spain 3-3 in its opener with a hat-trick from Christiano Ronaldo and then followed it up with a 1-0 win over a very tough Morocco.

The teams: Iran looked completely impotent against Spain, spending almost the entire 90 minutes in its own end. Iran was once again stingy overall, but its lack of offensive push pretty much renders it useless. 

Ronaldo followed up his hat-trick against Spain with the only goal in the win over Morocco as well. Can someone else on the Euro Champs step up and contribute here? But England’s Harry Cain has taken over the goal lead after netting a trio in the Lions 6-1 win over Panama, putting pressure on Ronaldo to answer. 

The pick: Iran is going to have to abandon its “sit back and wait for the other side to make a mistake” approach, as it needs an outright win here for any hope to advance. That’s going to open things up for Portugal to do some serious damage. With a chance to wrap up the group, I look for Portugal to easily pull away for the victory in regulation-plus injury time.

The set-up: Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series because of superior pitching. The Phillies will now look to sweep in the nation’s capital as they once again benefit from a mismatch on the mound this evening. The visitors go with Nick Pivetta, while the home side goes with Jefry Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Pivetta is so far 4-6 with a 4.08 ERA. Pivetta comes in off another strong outing, giving up two runs off four hits with one walk, while also striking out 13 over 7.1 innings in what turned out to be no-decision against the Cards on Monday. Pivetta hasn’t been perfect this year, but he does seem to be getting progressively better/more confident with each start. To go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP and elite 94:22 K/BB over 79.1 frames of work this season.

Rodriguez is so far 0-0 with a 4.66 ERA. Rodriguez is in the rotation out of necessity. Most recently he was walloped for five earned runs over five innings against Baltimore on Tuesday. It was just his second appearance in the big leagues.

The pick: Philadelphia has looked great at the plate in this series and there’s no reason not to think that the Phillies can’t carry that offensive momentum over here in this very favorable matchup. I think Pivetta offers great value in this spot, play on Philadelphia.

The set-up: Colombia has won just two of its last ten matches across all competitions. The Colombians though had to play 87 minutes plus stoppage against Japan with just ten men after an early red card in their opening game, a deficit which ultimately proved too much for them to overcome. Poland comes in off a shocking defeat to Senegal and there’s no question that it’ll be looking for a much better, mistake free result this time around. With both teams eager to reverse their fortunes, I’m expecting a higher-scoring shootout. 

The teams: Colombia is not in good form right now. James Rodriguez will be expected to do a lot more for the Colombian’s in this one. Carlos Sanchez sustained a deliberate handball red card in the third minute of the game and the Japanese took advantage. Radamel Falco has 29 goals in 74 international matches and he’ll also be expected to step up here.

Poland will be expecting a lot more from Robert Lewandowski as well. Lewandowski had three goals in his countries warm-up matches, putting him at 55 overall for Poland. The Poles gave up two sloppy goals to Senegal, so there’s no question that they’ll be looking to clean things up here. 

The pick: These teams both lost their opening games, but each fell by a 2-1 score. There was no lack of scoring in those openers and I’m not expecting anything different here either. Poland has now scored ten goals over its last four matches and I expect it to have plenty of chances this afternoon as well. This one has wide open “shootout” written all over it. Play the “over.” 

The set-up: Arizona continues to impress on the road, as it’s taken the first two games of this series. I think the surging Diamondbacks are going to build off yesterday’s 7-2 victory and find a way to deliver the goods on Sunday. Arizona goes with Clay Buchholz on the mound, while the Pirates go with Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Buchholz is so far 1-1 with a 2.94 ERA. Buchholz most recently allowed one earned run off four hits with two walks and three strikeouts over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. He’d go on to generate a season-best nine ground balls. Buchholz now owns a sharp 1.1 HR/9, while issuing just 1.9 BB/9.

Williams is so far 6-4 with a 4.00 ERA. Williams went seven shutout frames against Milwaukee on Monday, allowing one hit and two walks. He also had seven strikeouts. But outings like that have been few and far between for Williams this season, who came into that contest having allowed 17 earned runs over his previous 18 frames of work.

The pick: Note as well that when Williams faced the Diamondbacks on June 12th, he’d get shelled for eight runs over only three innings of work. “Momentum” can at times be an almost tangible factor and it’s one in which the books can sometimes have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. And that’s the case here in my opinion, as I look for Arizona to continue its surge and get the job done in the end. Play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: The Orioles took yesterday’s interleague contest 7-5, but I think the home side will bounce back on Sunday in what sets up to be a nice mismatch on the mound working in its favor. Baltimore goes with David Hess, while the Braves go with Brandon McCarthy.

The pitchers: Hess is so far 2-3 with a 4.82 ERA. Hess most recently was rocked for five runs off five hits with three walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Hess had a decent stretch in May, but he’s since allowed a combined ten runs over his last two outings. Note that he’s 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in all “day” games to this point.

McCarthy is so far 5-3 with a 4.89 ERA. McCarthy’s last appearance was back on June 15th, so he comes in plenty rested. McCarthy’s ERA (4.89) and WHIP (1.49), along with his 7.3 K/9 over 14 starts are serviceable. Note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games with a 2-0, 2.82 ERA record as well.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Baltimore is already a terrible 8-20 (-12.1 units) in all “day” games this season, while Atlanta is 17-7 (+13.6 units) in all “day” games. I think Hess has a meltdown this afternoon and I look for the hungry and revenge-minded home side to take advantage. Lay the price, play on the Braves.

The set-up: Boston came out on top of a wild 14-10 slugfest in the opener of this three game set last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over on Saturday. The Mariners go with Mike Leake, while the Red Sox go with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Leake is so far 7-4 with a 4.47 ERA. Leake comes in off a loss against Boston on Sunday, allowing five earned runs off eight hits over five innings. Leake came into that outing on a roll, but he’d come back down to Earth in a big way against Boston’s big bats. To to along with his uninspiring ERA, note that Leake also owns a pedestrian 55 strikeouts over 92.2 frames of work.

Rodriguez is so far 9-1 with a 3.59 ERA. Rodriguez threw opposite Leake last Sunday and would earn the victory after allowing two earned runs with nine strikeouts over six innings. It was his sixth straight winning decision. To go along with his respectable ERA, Rodriguez also owns a sharp 1.24 WHIP and has a 90:24 K/BB over 77.2 frames of work.

The pick: Leake has been “hit or miss” this season, but after his latest blow-up, it’s hard to trust where the right-hander is at right now. Rodriguez though has been at this best in this spot all season and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry over his progression here as well. I think Boston is well worth the price of admission in this spot.

The set-up: Note that this is the second highest total on the board in Week 2. In the 2017 Grey Cup, Calgary was a seven-point favorite, but it would get upset for a second straight year in the “big game” 27-24. A Matt Black interception of Bo Levi Mitchell in the end zone with eight seconds remaining was a dramatic finish to a great upset.

The teams: Calgary looked sharp on both ends of the field in its 28-14 win over visiting Hamilton in Week 1. The Stamps though would only pull away in the fourth quarter with a 19-3 run. Mitchell struggled, going just 17 of 36 for 297 yards, a touchdown and an interception. RB Don Jackson was a bright spot with 87 yards on 12 carries. 

Toronto was a three-point fav in Saskatchewan in Week 1, but the defending champs fell flat in the 27-19 setback. The Argos looked bad offensively, posting just five points through the first three quarters. QB Ricky Ray had just 233 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. RB James Wilder Jr. was also a major disappointment with 17 total rushing yards. The Argos’ bright spot was their play on the defensive side in the Week 1 loss.

The pick: These teams have a long history of playing to lower-scoring defensive battles as well, as five of their last six in the series have gone “under” the posted number. Everything points to another tight/lower-scoring war in this one as well. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Philadelphia smashed Washington 12-2 last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The visitors hand the ball to ace Aaron Nola, while the Nationals go with Erick Fedde.

The pitchers: Nola is so far 8-2 with a 2.55 ERA. Nola comes in off easily his worst outing of the year, allowing four runs and four walks off seven hits over 4.1 innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Starts like that have been few and far between for Nola though over the last two years, so there’s no reason to over-react to one sub-par performance. Note that he still sports a 94:26 K/BB over 95.1 innings.

Fedde is so far 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA. Fedde most recently allowed three runs off seven hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a setback to the Yankees on Monday. Fedde has looked unimpressive in his limited time and he comes in with a poor 7.20 ERA on the road so far.

The pick: The Philadelphia bats came alive in last night’s victory and there’s no reason not to think that it won’t be able to duplicate that feat in this one as well facing the shaky Fedde. It’s a golden opportunity for Nola to bounce back and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to do just that. Play on the Phillies.

The set-up: Germany came out and laid an egg in its 1-0 loss to Mexico to open the 2018 World Cup. The Germans were favored to win the tournament only slightly behind power house Brazil. Germany will now put the foot on the gas for the rest of the tournament and it will look to take out its frustrations on Sweden. 

The Swede’s will be hopeful for an upset of their own, and while they do present a formidable defensive challenge, I still don’t think it’ll be enough against this now angry/frantic German side.

The teams: It’s do or die for the defending World Champs. Sweden sits atop Group F right now after taking care of business against South Korea, while Germany sits tied for last after falling flat against the Mexicans. 

Germany was without the services of Jonas Hector in the opening game because of illness, but the dynamic left-back is expected back in this one. Much more will be expected of Timo Werner though, who haas eight goals in 15 international appearances for the team. 

Victor Lindelof missed the game against South Korea due to illness, but he’s likely to return here. One other player for the Swedes to keep your eye on for is Marcus Berg, how had eight goals in qualifying. Note that Sweden would need a VAR-awarded penalty to beat the South Koreans though. 

The pick: Note as well that Germany did have 17 shots on goal in its loss to Mexico, including nine of which were on target. It also held 67 percent of the possession. The Germans ran into some bad luck and a hot goaltender in Guillermo Ochoa. Germany though has won seven straight against Sweden and with its back against the wall here, I look for it to find a way to bounce back with a resounding victory after its opening game shocker. Lay the price.

The set-up: Mexico looked impressive defensively in its colossal 1-0 win over Germany, while South Korea looked pretty feeble in its 1-0 loss to Sweden. The Mexicans can take the lead for good in this group with another win though and while that may in fact occur, I do definitely feel that this matchup/game has the feel of a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a high-scoring, wide-open “shootout.”

The teams: The Mexicans scored early against the Germans in their opening game upset, and then turned their attention to a more defensive style, a tactic which worked brilliantly. Mexico is expected to put out the exact same line-up here, so it’s hard to imagine the offensively challenged Koreans putting up much of a fight in this one.

South Korea was held without a single shot on goal by Sweden. The Korean’s were looking for the Swede’s to make the first mistake, but they simply didn’t make any. South Korean star Heung-min Son looked very average. The Korean’s though did look stout defensively, as Sweden would score its lone goal via a VAR awarded penalty.

The pick: The Koreans won’t be going down without a fight and I think they’ll make Mexico work throughout this one. When you add it all up, there’s no question in my mind that this one has “defensive battle” written all over it. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Belgium will look to pad its score here as it comes in on a huge run, unbeaten since a 2-0 defeat to Spain back in September 2016. Since then it’s gone 20 straight without suffering a defeat. Belgium managed to make it past Panama in its opener, while Tunisia suffered a late 2-1 loss to England.

The teams: Belgium currently sits atop Group G after its 3-0 win over Panama. Romelu Lukaku scored twice in the convincing victory and he now has eight over his last six games. Kevin de Bruyne would assist on both of Lukaku’s goals. 

Wahbi Kharzi will be expected to do a lot more for Tunisia today. Kharzi, a striker at Rennes, has the quality to make an impact in this one though. Ferjani Sassi would net the lone goal in the crushing loss to England.

The pick: It’s all or nothing for Tunisia obviously, as it comes in without a victory over its last four matches. Lukaku though plays very similar to England’s Harry Kane, who had two goals in the win over Tunisia. This one has the feel of a wide open “track meet,” rather than a slower-paced “chess match.” Play the over.

The set-up: A few years ago, Danny Duffy and Dallas Keuchel were the two hottest hurlers on the planet. Oh how the times have changed. That said, each has the track record and pedigree to turn things around in 2018 and I think we’re in store for a bit of a “duel” on Friday night.

The pitchers: Duffy is so far 3-7 with a 5.55 ERA. Duffy will be eager to reverse his fortunes here after getting shelled for seven runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings while striking out five against the Astros on Saturday. Across 15 starts Duffy owns a 1.55 WHIP and a 69:40 K/BB. Also note that he’s 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA in all “night” games.

Keuchel is so far 4-8 with a 4.15 ERA. Keuchel comes in off a strong outing against the Royals on Saturday, giving up two unearned runs off six hits with one walk over six innings while striking out five and winning his first game since mid May. To go along with his sub-par 4.15 ERA, Keuchel also sports a 71:23 K/BB.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but KC has seen the total go “under” the number in 20 of 33 on the road this year, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in eight of ten as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. I look for these two determined starters to battle deep. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Minnesota will be eager to bounce back here after its listless 9-2 loss at home to Boston last night. Texas will hand the ball to Mike Minor, while the Twins go with Fernando Romero (3-2, 4.17 ERA.)

The pitchers: Minor is so far 4-4 with a 5.35 ERA. Minor most recently allowed two runs off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Saturday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Minor this season, as he has only four quality outings so far in 2018. Also note that he’s a terrible 1-2 with an 8.14 ERA on the road.

Romero is so far 3-2 with a 4.17 ERA. Romero most recently allowed three runs off six hits with a walk over four innings in a no-decision against the Indians on Saturday. Note though that the rookie has been at his best at home this year, going 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA to this point.

The pick: I think Minor’s inconsistencies on the road continue here, while recent form displayed by Romero suggests that he’s in line for another productive evening in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Twins.

The set-up: The LA Sparks are on the road at College Park Center to take on the Dallas Wings in this one. LA is 9-2 so far, good enough for second place in the Western Conference. Dallas is so far 5-5, sitting in fifth in the Western Conference.

The teams: LA averages 79.9 PPG and it allows 73.7. Note that the Sparks come in with zero injuries. LA is led by Chelsea Gray with 15.5 PPG, while Nneka Ogwumike averages 16.5 points per night.

Dallas averages 82.9 points and it allows 81.0. Note that the Wings have two major injuries as Karima Christmas-Kelly is out for the season with a knee injury, while Theresa Plaisance is out with an ACL tear. Elizabeth Cambage is averaging 19.7 points for Dallas this year.

The pick: Dallas has trouble protecting the ball against aggressive defensive teams, turning it over an average of 15.6 times per 100 possessions. And that doesn’t bode well facing the Sparks stingy unit. I think this line should be larger. Play on LA.

The set-up: The Dodgers had the night off last night, while the Mets are off a 6-4 loss in Colorado. I think the well rested visiting side could be a bigger favorite as I look for Alex Wood to out duel New York starter Zach Wheeler on the mound this evening.

The pitchers: Wood is so far 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA. Wood comes in off a decent outing against San Francisco on Saturday, giving up one earned run off four hits and two walks while striking out two over 5.2 innings. Wood would throw 58 of is 85 pitches for strikes and I think the southpaw will carry that momentum over here. Note that he owns a 3.72 ERA in all “night” games.

Wheeler is so far 2-5 with a 4.82 ERA. Wheeler most recently allowed two earned runs off three hits and two walks while striking out eight over six innings against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Previous to that though Wheeler had been shelled for six earned runs.

The pick: Note as well that the home field advantage has been anything but for Wheeler this season, as he comes in with a poor 0-4, 5.14 ERA record in New York. He’s also just 1-4 with a 5.53 ERA in all “night” games. LA is 17-15 on the road, while the Mets are a terrible 13-21 (-12.5 units) at home. I think Wood offers great value in this matchup. Play on LA.

The set-up: Both teams come in off Week 1 losses. Winnipeg lost a 33-30 heartbreaker at home to the Edmonton Eskimos, while Montreal had a predictable letdown in BC. The Bombers lost their starting QB in the final preseason tune-up, but their backup played well and I think he’ll carry that progression over here.

The teams: Winnipeg was forced to start Chris Streveler in Week 1 due to the injury to Matt Nichols. Streveler though posted a respectable first performance with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler combined for 120 receiving yards and two touchdowns. RB Andrew Harris had 77 yards on 14 carries, part of 137 total yards on the ground for Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers looked poor on the defensive side, but clearly the team catches a break facing the impotent Al’s offense.

Montreal QB Drew Willy had 281 yards, one TD and one INT against the Lions last week. Note though that Willy has one or less touchdown passes in each of his last eight games. Montreal’s ground game stalled as well with just 78 total yards. RB Tyrell Sutton was a bright spot with 65 rushing yards on 15 carries. The Al’s looked decent defensively, allowing 300 yards and 22 points, led by Chris Ackie with six tackles.

The prediction: Take it for what you will though, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Montreal is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 at home. Not only that but the Blue Bombers are 6-1 in their last seven played in Montreal. The Al’s offense is still a major question mark and I have a hard time seeing the unit keeping up with Streveler and company. Lay the points.

The set-up: Nigeria is coming off a disappointing 2-0 loss to Croatia. However, after the Croat’s dominated Argentina 3-0 yesterday, perhaps that opening setback doesn’t look so bad. The Super Eagles will be eager to get untracked here as they look to open up their offensive attack and gain some momentum.

Iceland will be looking to take advantage and to grab a full three points here after it went to a historic 1-1 draw with Argentina. And with Argentina now eliminated, Iceland can clinch at least second spot with an outright victory.

The teams: Nigeria has now lost four of its last five matches. Expect to see some changes on the field from Nigeria today, as Leicester City striker Kelechi Iheanacho will himself be expected to make an immediate offensive impact. It’s interesting to note that Nigeria actually created more chances that Croatia in its opening game loss, but it managed to only find the target twice.

Iceland will be attacking today. Keep your eyes on Gylfi Sigurdsson, who has scored more goals than anyone currently on the squad. Alfred Finnbogaso scored the lone goal against Argentina.

The pick: As great as Iceland’s draw was with Argentina, it simply won’t mean as much if it can’t back it up with a three-point win here. Iceland has in fact not won in five matches, as it’s draw with Argentina was it’s second straight. With both teams desperate for a victory and each looking to push the pace from start to finish, the correct call is the “over” in my opinion.

The set-up: Two teams which can struggle to put runs on the board at times square off against a couple of capable starters. In my opinion, this one sets up as a classic “duel.” The Padres go with Tyson Ross, while the Giants go with Madison Bumgarner.

The pitchers: Ross is so far 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA. Ross comes in off a difficult loss to the Braves on Thursday, giving up three runs off three hits while striking out four over six frames. Ross’s velocity was up on his fast-ball to over 91 MPH and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 3-2, 3.11 ERA night record.

Bumgarner is so far 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA. Bumgarner most recently allowed three runs off five hits with four walks while striking out three over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Bumgarner continues to try and work himself back into game shape, but he certainly has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around quickly.

The pick: The Padres have struggled on the road this year with a 16-19 record. They’ve also struggled to plate runs away from friendly confines, having seen the total go 11-23 on the road. Bumgarner faces the perfect opponent to get back on track, while I also expect Ross to continue his steady progression. Add it all up and this one has “under” written all over it.

The set-up: The Roughriders will hope to open the season with a 2-0 record after beating the Toronto Argonauts handily in Week 1. Ottawa will have different plans obviously as it kicks off its 2018 campaign

The teams: Saskatchewan has won four straight on the road dating to last year. QB Zach Collaros had 203 yards and a TD last week, to go along with zero INT’s. Duron Carter and Caleb Holley combined for 83 receiving yards. Jerome Messam though leads a strong running attack which posted 111 yards last week.

The Redblacks were 8-9-1 last year, but they’ll be looking to improve those numbers with QB Trevor Harris, who helped his team finish third in the league in total points scored last season.

The pick: It’s a quick turnaround for the Roughriders, who have to travel across the country for this one. Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 19 non-conference games. This one has the feel of a wide open “shootout,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the “over.”

The set-up: The Cubs closed out a home set with the Dodgers with a 4-0 win yesterday and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here facing erratic Reds’ starter Matt Harvey. Chicago hands the ball to Kyle Hendricks in this one.

The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 5-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Hendricks most recently allowed three earned runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out three over six innings in a victory over St. Louis on Saturday. Hendricks enters with a respectable 4-3, 3.79 ERA in all night games this year.

Harvey is so far 1-5 with a 5.92 ERA. Harvey most recently gave up three runs off four hits and two walks over five innings while striking out two in a loss to the Pirates on Friday. Harvey was decent, but he’d ultimately come up short again. Harvey now sports the ballooned ERA and note that he owns a 5.63 ERA in all home games.

The pick: Chicago is 41-29 overall this year, which includes going 21-15 on the road. Cincinnati is 27-45 this season, including just 12-23 at home. The Cubs are also 115-69 against the division the last three seasons, while the Reds are just 78-105 against divisional foes in the same span. No upset in this one, lay the price.

The set-up: Lionel Messi missed a penalty shot in Argentina’s opening game against Iceland and the South American power house would have to settle for a draw. Croatia though rolled to a 2-0 win over Nigeria, which now clearly puts the pressure on Argentina to find a way to win this one outright, as a draw or a loss here would put it in jeopardy of advancing. The Croat’s looked strong against their African opponent, but I think they’ll come up short here.

The teams: Argentina was a runner up in Brazil four years ago and it’s going to be looking to get back on track after its opening lacklustre effort. Messi may have missed the free kick, but overall he had a strong outing with 12 shots on net. Sergio Aguero managed the lone goal.

Luka Modic scored for Croatia in its opening win against Nigeria. The Croats have now won three of their last five, but note that they’ve lost their last two against South American opposition, with 2-0 losses to both Brazil and Peru in friendlies.

The pick: Messi will be a man on a mission here after taking the full blame for his team’s “draw.” However, you’ll also want to keep your eyes Aguero, who has four goals in his last four games.

I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The set-up: France comes into its second Group C matchup sitting at the top after it’s 2-1 win over Australia, while Peru can be put out of its misery after it fell 1-0 to Denmark.

The teams: The French are expected to field the identical squad after its Game 1 win. Antoine Griezmann scored from the penalty spot against the Aussies and he now has 21 international goals in 55 games. Note that France has now gone unbeaten in its last five matches, winning four of those.

Peru is led by Paolo Guerrero, who has scored a national-record 34 goals over 89 appearances. Christian Cueva blasted a penalty well over the bar in his team’s closest chance last time out though, and the disastrous effort would go on to set the tone for the rest of the game.

The pick: Peru is tough on the back line, but France has scored 19 goals in its last nine matches. Also note that the French have not lost to a South American team since 1978. Peru was in great form heading into the tournament, but I think it’s Game 1 setback will weigh heavily on its mind again here. Ultimately I look for France’s high-powered attack to prove to be too much for the Peruvian’s to handle. Lay the price.

\The set-up: The Yanks pulled away for a decisive 7-2 victory in yesterday’s series opener and while the home side may ultimately earn another victory here as well, in a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mariners go with Felix Hernandez, while the Yankees go with Jonathan Loasiga.

The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 6-6 with a 5.44 ERA. Hernandez comes in off a strong outing against the Red Sox on Thursday, allowing two earned runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over seven innings. Hernandez has been strong at home and poor on the road this year, but I’m expecting “The King” to carry over the momentum from his latest outing and challenge his still untested counterpart.

Loaisiga is so far 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Loaisiga picked up a win in his major league debut against the Rays on Friday, giving up three hits and four walks over five scoreless. It wan impressive showing, but clearly the book is still out on the right-hander.

The pick: The future is bright for Loaisiga, but it’s hard to see the rookie duplicating that performance in back-to-back outings. Hernandez has had plenty of struggles, but I think the veteran will at the very least, match Loaisiga inning for inning. Play the Mariners on the run-line.

The set-up: The Braves took Game 1 of this one 11-4 yesterday, but I think the home side will bounce back with its ace on the mound this afternoon. Atlanta turns to Anibal Sanchez, while the Jays go with JA Happ.

The pitchers: Sanchez is so far 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Over six starts for Atlanta Sanchez has posted a sharp 32/11 K/W over 37.1 innings. Sanchez was a disaster for the Tigers last season, so it’s hard to trust that he’ll maintain these “lights out” numbers.

Happ is so far 8-3 with a 3.48 ERA who went five scoreless against the Rays on Wednesday, giving up one run and three walks over five scoreless on Wednesday. Happ would also strikeout four and he comes into this one sporting an impressive 10.2 K/9 over his 14 starts this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Atlanta is just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring ten or more runs, while Toronto is 8-3 in its last 11 after allowing ten or more runs. I think Sanchez comes back down to Earth and I look for Happ to continue his consistent progression. Lay the price.

The set-up: Portugal is a heavy favorite over Morocco in this Opening Round game in Group B. Portugal won the 2016 Euros and it’s led by arguably the best player on the planet. Morocco on the other hand ranks 42nd in the World. That said, Morocco also has a fantastic player at its disposal and he will be trying desperately to pull off an upset in this one.

The teams: Portugal hasn’t changed much since winning the 2016 Euro. It’s led by Christiano Ronaldo, who comes into the 2018 World Cup on top form.

Morocco will be leaning heavily on Hakim Ziyech, who won Dutch Footballer of the Year after a fantastic season with Ajex.

The pick: Portugal was in a tight battle with Switzerland for an automatic qualification, but it would in the end come out on top. The North African side is stout on the back end, but it returns to the World Cup for the first time since 1998. This is a tough first match and I think that the Portuguese depth and experience will in the end prove to be too much for the Moroccan’s to overcome. Lay the price with confidence.

The set-up: These teams can both put runs on the board in a hurry, but I think this one sets up as a classic “duel” in the opener of this three game set. The Red Sox go with ace Chris Sale, while the Twins go with Jose Berrios.

The pitchers: Sale is so far 6-4 with a 2.75 ERA. Sale comes in off another strong outing against Baltimore on Wednesday, giving up one run off two hits and four walks over six innings while striking out nine in the victory. Sale’s back on track and he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 4-2, 2.56 ERA record on the road.

Berrios is so far 7-5 with a 3.51 ERA. Berrios received a no-decision in his last start against the Tigers despite allowing only one run with seven strikeouts over six innings. Berrios continues to impress and he’ll also be looking to keep the momentum rolling and improve upon his tiny 0.95 WHIP and fantastic 91:15 K/W over 89.2 frames of work this season (note that Berrios is 5-2 with a 3.12 ERA at home this season as well.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 39 this year on the road, while Minnesota has seen the total go “under” in 18 of 31 at home. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Toronto is suddenly white hot, winner of seven straight. That includes a three-game sweep of the Nationals over the weekend. Atlanta has exceeded expectations this season, but I think it’ll come up short here against the hungry home side. The Braves go with Mike Soroka in this one, while the Jays go with Jaime Garcia.

The pitchers: Soroka is so far 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA. Soroka returned for his first start since May 12th to face the Mets on Wednesday and he looked good, going six scoreless with four strikeouts. Soroka has done well so far this season, but I think he’ll have his hands full in this difficult venue.

Garcia is so far 2-5 with a 5.71 ERA. Garcia most recently allowed four runs off four hits with four walks while striking out four over five innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Garcia has been terrible on the road with a 1-4, 8.04 ERA record, but much better at home with a 1-1, 3.00 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already only 19-21 this season following a victory, while Toronto is 6-2 (+5.6 units) in all inter-league games. Great value on the red hot Jays.

The set-up: Two red hot American League sides collide in the opener of this three-game set. Both of these starters have looked brilliant at times and pedestrian in others, but I think that the home field advantage will prove to be the difference in this one. The Mariners go with Marco Gonzalez, while the Yanks go with Domingo German.

The pitchers: Gonzalez is so far 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA. Gonzalez comes in off a no-decision against the Angels on Wednesday, allowing three runs off seven hits and two walks over five innings. Gonzalez has been sharp as a starter this year and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about him. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.

German is so far 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA. German comes in off his best outing of the year and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. German would give up three runs over six innings while also striking out ten over six innings in the victory over the Rays.

The pick: These are two of the best clubs in the AL, but I’ll point out that New York is a superb 16-4 (+8.9 units) this season against southpaws. I think this one favors the hard-hitting home side, as I look for Gonzalez to take a step back in this difficult atmosphere.

The set-up: Two teams hopeful for a victory go head-to-head in WNBA action on Tuesday night, but for a number of different reasons I think this one has defensive battle written all over it.

The teams: Washington is a deep team filled with talent. Allie Quigley leads Washington with 15.5 points per game, while Courtney Vandersloot adds 6.2 assists. Cheyenne Parker is a force in the paint and averages eight rebounds per night.

Washington will be looking to take advantage of familiar surroundings. Elena Delle Donne leads the scoring charge with 18.3 points per game, while Natasha Cloud directs the show with 4.6 assists per night. Note that Donne also leads the nightly charge on the glass with 6.3 boards per game.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under’ the number in three of its last four against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per night, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in two of its last three as a favorite. This one has the feel of more of a “chess match,” with a lot of half court sets on offense, instead of a run and gun “shootout.” This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: While this is likely going to be a tight battle, I think Poland will have enough to score the outright win in regulation.

The teams: Senegal is led by a Senegalese manager (Aliou Cisse) and it has plenty of strong players, including Sadio Mane. Senegal has its hands full in a tough Group H with Colombia and Japan though. One other player to keep your eyes on tonight is Napoli’s cental defender Kalidou Koulibaly, who will be tasked in slowing down Poland’s main offensive weapon.

Poland has a strong team as well, including star Robert Lewandowski. This won’t be a cake walk though, as Poland is not going to have top defender Kamil Glik to open the tournament. But that means that it’s “next man up!” Keep your eyes on Jan Bednarek, who will be expected to step up in a big way in this one.

The pick: Senegal has no injuries to worry about, but it simply lacks the depth and skill to hang with Poland. Lewandowski is a force and all signs point to a big game and tournament for the Polish super star. I’m expecting the Eastern European country to ride the wave of support and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the match. Play on Poland.

The set-up: Colombia and Japan get ready to battle to open Group H. The Colombian’s have plenty of firepower to make a serious splash in 2018. Japan is a Group H outsider, but it has a couple of star players who also have the potential to make some noise early.

The teams: Colombia is once again led by James Rodriguez. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Radamel Falcao and Tottenham’s Davinson Sanchez, who is the key piece at the back.

Japan is led by ex-Manchester United star Shinji Kagwa, along with Leicester striker Shinji Okazaki.

The pick: Both teams qualified with relative ease, but I think Colombia’s pedigree and quality will prove to be too much for the Japanese. Few can say that they’ve taken points off Brazil of late, something that Colombia had to do to qualify. Japan topped Group B in the AFC qualifications system, but its level of competition was not even comparable. And finally the Colombian’s as whole have more big match experience and when you add it all up, it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying.

The set-up: Miami took a series against the Giants at home last week so suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time for San Francisco tonight. The Marlins’ Caleb Smith received a no-decision throwing opposite the Giants’ Andrew Suarez last Wednesday (Suarez also received a no-decision for his effort) and they’ll be facing off again on Monday.

The pitchers: Smith is so far 5-6 with a 3.75 ERA. Smith would allow three runs off eight hits over 6.1 innings against San Francisco last week. Smith has been better than advertised for the Marlins this year, but note that he’s still just 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA on the road this season.

Suarez is so far 2-4 with a 4.92 ERA. Suarez gave up two runs off five hits with three strikeouts over five innings in Miami last week. The southpaw has improved considerably of late with a 3.31 ERA in June and note that he owns a respectable 3.55 ERA at home (compared to 6.18 on the road.)

The pick: Miami just 14-22 on the road as well, while San Francisco is 19-11 (+7.2 units) at home. Smith looks poised for a predictable letdown on the road in my opinion, while recent form displayed by Suarez definitely swings the value in favor of the home side. Lay the price.

The set-up: For arguments sake, I’m going to call these starters a “wash.” And if that is in fact the case, then I think it clearly swings the value to the hard-hitting visiting side. Kansas City goes with Ian Kennedy in this one, while the Rangers go with the venerable Bartolo Colon.

The pitchers: Colon is so far 3-4 with a 4.94 ERA. Colon most recently gave up eight runs off nine hits while striking out three over 3.1 innings in a setback to the Dodgers on Tuesday. Colon has struggled of late, but he does have the track record, pedigree and experience to get things turned around.

Kennedy is so far 1-6 with a 5.13 ERA. Kennedy has been a disaster this year, but he comes in off his best performance of the saxon, going eight scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision against Cincinnati on Tuesday. Prior to this gem though, Kennedy had gone seven straight outings without a quality start and note that his opposition is still hitting a healthy .289 off him.

The pick: The moral of the story behind this pick, is to not “over-react.” I think Colon can easily out duel his struggling counterpart, as an immediate return to mediocrity seems imminent for Kennedy. Play on Texas.

The set-up: This is a big game for both sides after Mexico’s win over Germany in World Cup Group F. While neither team is known for its offensive prowess, I believe each will open things up and I look for this one to fly over this low total, sooner rather than later.

The teams: Sweden reached the World Cup after a 1-0 upset over Italy in the play-offs. That victory is now known as the “Miracle of Milan,” and the Swedish will be determined to prove that it was no fluke.

South Korea reached the big tournament in Russia after finishing top of its final group, with a pivotal victory over fellow World Cup finalist Japan.

Both teams will be ultra-motivated here as well after a poor run through the friendlies, as Sweden drew both World Cup warm-ups 0-0 in June against Denmark and Peru, while South Korea was beaten by Bosnia-Herzegovina and Senegal in pre-World Cup friendlies.

The pick: Sweden enters a major tournament for the first time without the services of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but most believe that has in fact made the Swedish a stronger unit. South Korea is led by dynamic Tottenham striker Son Heung Min, who had 18 goals for the Euro club this year. This one has the feel of a “track meet,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the over.

The set-up: The Canadian Denis Shapalov comes in off back-to-back poor tournament showings, but he’s still ranked 23rd in the World. Luxembourger Gilles Muller is ranked 46th in the World and he comes in having lost four straight matches.

The players: Muller has been on the pro circuit for 17 years, but he actually comes in having won just seven of his last 20 matches. Shapalov has an 18-14 record this season.

Shapalov’s last appearance was in Stuttgart last week and he’d fall 6-7, 6-2, 3-6 against Prajnesh Gunneswaran. Shapalov bowed out to Maximilian Marterer in the second round at Roland Garros previous to that.

Muller’s last tournament saw him bow out to 69th ranked Matthew Ebden in the round of 16 at Roland Garros.

The pick: Shapalov has an aggressive baseline game, which will help him against Muller’s powerful serve. While Shapalov has struggled of late, Muller is in a complete “funk” right now and I think that carries over here. Shapalov has excelled on grass as well, which sets up him perfectly here. I think the veteran continues his regression, while all signs point to a great bounce back spot for the hungry Shapalov. Lay the price.

The set-up: The Mercury played on Saturday night and suffice it to say, I think Phoenix will come in a little flat-footed in the second game of the back to back. Las Vegas has struggled with game-to-game consistency all year and the last thing it can do is to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with Phoenix. When you add it all up, this number seems a little high.

The teams: Phoenix is led by Brittney Grier, with 20.8 points per game. Dian Taurasi is also a big contributor, leading the team with 4.4 assists. Grier also dominates the glass for the team with 7.3 boards per night.

Las Vegas is led by A’ja Wilson with 20.3 points per night. Lindsay Allen directs the show with an average of 4.3 assists per night. A’ja Wilson also gets the job done on the boards with 7.3 per night.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its six on the road already this year, while Las Vegas has seen the total go “under” in both games that it’s already played in this season after a loss by ten points or more. Play the “under.”

The set-up: The Mets have struggled on the road, while the Diamondbacks have been at their best at home. I expect these trends to continue on Sunday. New York hands the ball to Zach Wheeler, while Arizona goes with Clay Buchholz.

The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 2-5 with a 4.98 ERA. Wheeler most recently was smashed for six runs off eight hits and four walks while striking out two over 5.2 innings in a loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. Wheeler has been more “miss” than “hit” this year and note that he’s been poor on the road with an elevated 4.99 ERA.

Buchholz is so far 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA. Buchholz comes in off a sub-par outing as well, allowing six runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out two over four innings in a no-decision to Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Previous to this disaster though Buchholz had given up one or two runs over his first four starts of the season. And despite his latest performance, Buchholz still owns a sharp 3.21 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

The pick: Note as well that Buchholz has been particularly effective in all “day” games to this point with a sharp 2.12 ERA as well. I’m banking on Buchholz outdueling his “on again off again” counterpart and for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to do the rest. Play on Arizona.

The set-up: Both of these teams can struggle to put runs on the board at times and that was certainly the case again in the Phillies 4-1 win yesterday. With Philadelphia sending its ace Aaron Nola to the hill and with the Brewers countering with the improving Chase Anderson, I fully expect runs to be at a premium again this afternoon.

The pitchers: Nola is so far 8-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Nola most recently struck out ten and gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Rockies on Tuesday. To go along with his elite ERA, note that Nola also sports a minuscule 0.93 WHIP.

Anderson is so far 5-5 with a 4.13 ERA. Anderson most recently went seven scoreless against the Cubs on Tuesday, striking out six and allowing only one hit. While his ERA is pretty “mediocre,” note that Anderson comes in with a sharp 1.17 WHIP, while holding his opposition to a meagre .217 batting average.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in 20 of 34 against teams with winning records, while Milwaukee has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 35 against clubs with winning records. This number is a little high, play the “under.

The set-up: Brazil is the favorite to win this group and this tournament. Switzerland though will be risking life and limb to try and pull off the upset. With both teams pushing the pace, the prudent move is the “over” in my opinion.

The teams: Brazil rolled through qualifying, including big outright victories over Argentina, Uruguay and Chile. Brazil also won its three international friendlies, including a 1-0 win over Germany.

The Swiss booked their way to Russia through the UEFA playoff-spots, but underestimating Switzerland would clearly be a big mistake as it comes in ranked sixth in the World. The Swiss would post three wins while drawing with Spain 1-1 in the lead up to the World Cup.

The pick: Neymar Jr returning to the line-up has given Brazil a big boost and he’ll be looking to put on a show in his team’s opening game. Xherdan Shaqiri of Liverpool will be leaned upon heavily for the Swiss and he should have his opportunities as well. When you add it all up, the “over” is definitely the correct call in this one.

The set-up: Enough is enough! The Marlins have inexplicably taken the first two games of this interleague series as sizeable underdogs, but I think their “luck” runs out on Sunday. Miami goes with Trevor Richards on the mound, while Baltimore goes with the suddenly red hot Dylan Bundy.

The pitchers: Richards is so far 1-3 with a 4.41 ERA. Richards most recently comes off his first big league victory, allowing one run over six innings against the Giants on Tuesday. Richards though had struggled up to that point, so I’m going to caution in reading too much into one decent outing. Note that he’s already given up 17 walks over 34.2 innings this season, while also going a poor 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA on the road.

Bundy is so far 4-7 with a 3.66 ERA. Bundy most recently went eight scoreless against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Monday, allowing three hits with two walks to go along with seven strikeouts. Bundy is finally rounding into form as he’s produced four straight quality starts.

The pick: And note that Bundy has been “lights out” in this position all year, going 3-1 with a minuscule 1.08 ERA in all “day” games. I base my picks on many different things, but I don’t think we need to overthink this one. All things considered, I think we’re getting great value in this matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: Manager Joachim Low and Germany are favored to win Group F and while Mexico is a tough opening draw, I still think that the perennial favorite will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is Mexico’s 16th appearance in the World Cup and it’ll still be hopeful to improve up an impressive 2014 run.

The breakdown: Germany will once again be leaning heavily on Thomas Muller, who has scored five goals in each of his last two World Cups. The Germans have many new faces, but they dominated all ten of their qualifying matches, scoring an average of 4.3 goals per game (note that 21 different player scored for Germany in the qualifying round.) Goaltender Manuel Neuer is considered probably the best on the planet as well.

Mexico’s top player is Javier Hernandez, who comes in off a “mediocre” campaign for West Ham. Guillermo Ochoa became a house hold name for his heroics in the 2014 World Cup against Brazil. There are still a number of players on this team that tasted gold in the 2012 Olympics in London. The Mexicans would concede just one goal in six qualifying matches.

The pick: I think it’s important to note though that Low’s teams have not exited an international tournament before the semi final stage under his watch. Mexico will be realistic coming into this match, but all for naught in my opinion. Look for the Germans to send an early message with a decisive victory.

The set-up: Arizona continues to bounce back after a rough stretch and everything points to another “easy” victory on Saturday night in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound. The visitors go with Steven Matz, while the Diamondbacks go with Patrick Corbin.

The pitchers: Matz is so far 2-4 with a 3.53 ERA. Matz’s last start was skipped over due to a blister issue, but the southpaw has been given the green light to start tonight. Matz most recently allowed three runs off five hits with four walks over six innings in a no-decision to the Yankees last Saturday.

Corbin is so far 6-2 with a 3.21 ERA. Corbin is coming off his worst outing of the 2018 campaign, allowing five runs off six hits with five strikeouts over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Pirates on Monday. Outings like that have been few and far between for the hard-throwing left-hander the last two years though, so there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to bounce back here. Note that he comes into this one sporting an awesome 110:25 K/W and he’s also a fantastic 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is a terrible 7-10 (-4.3 units) against left-handed starters this year, while Arizona is a fantastic 17-8 (+11.1 units) against left-handed starters this season. Frankly, I believe this line could be even larger. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks.

The set-up: Montreal only won three games last year and I think it’ll struggle on the road to open the 2018 campaign. The Lions struggled last year as well with just seven victories, as BC would miss the postseason for the first time since 1996. The Lions though feature depth and veteran leadership which I believe will help the team on Opening night. Everything points to a home side blowout.

The teams: Montreal is now led by coach Mike Sherman, former Green Bay head boss. Drew Willy is experienced under center and he has a trio of decent playmakers in BJ Cunningham, Tyrell Sutton and Ernest Jackson. Note though that the defense finished dead last in total points allowed last season and that side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak point.

BC missed the playoffs, but it still finished third in the CFL in passing yards a year ago. Top receivers Bryan Burnham, Emmanuel Arceneaux and Jon Jennings are all back to make amends. Like their counterpart today, the main issue for the Lions last season was on the defensive side of the ball.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Al’s are 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road and just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 in BC. I like the Lions to put on an offensive show in front of the home town crowd on Opening weekend as everything points to another road letdown for the still re-building Als. Play on BC.

The set-up: Madison Bumgarner has so far been pretty “mediocre” since returning from injury for the Giants, while Alex Wood has struggled of late for the Dodgers. These are two pitchers which have enjoyed a lot of success throughout their careers and clearly neither can be happy at where they are at this point of the 2018 campaign. I firmly believe though that their focus/hunger will prove to be the difference in this total, as everything points to a classic “duel” on Saturday night.

The pitchers: Bumgarner is so far 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA. Bumgarner most recently allowed four runs off six hits and one walk over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Marlins on Monday. It was only the veterans second start of the season and clearly he still has some rust to shake off. Note that Bumgarner had a very respectable 3.26 ERA on the road last year though.

Wood is so far 1-5 with a 4.43 ERA. Wood was removed after 4.2 innings of work against the Giants last Saturday after dealing a minor leg injury. Wood has admittedly struggled of late, but remember that he was 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA last overall last season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has already seen the total go under the number in a whopping 16 of 21 this season against left-handed pitching. I predict these starters battle deep into the latter frames and I look for this total to fall under at the end of the night.

The set-up: Calgary is always one of the top teams favored to win the Grey Cup (at least over the last decade.) Hamilton though won’t be rolling over and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do expect the hungry visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough with the big spread.

The teams: Hamilton has won just 13 games over the last two seasons, but it got a spark over the last two months with the addition of oft-maligned QB Johnny Manziel. Manziel is starting as the backup QB, but the ex Texas A&M pivot will be expected to come in and replace starter Jeremiah Masoli at some point. Returning from last year are the team’s top two receivers in Luke Tasker and Jalen Saunders, a duo which combined for over 2,300 receiving yards and 11 TD’s. The Ti-Cats achilles heel was on the defensive side of the ball a year ago, but the return of key players such as Richard Leonard and Larry Dean is expected to help the unit make strides in 2018.

Calgary has lost the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons in heart-breaking fashion and while it’ll be coming into the 2018 campaign with a collective “chip on its shoulder,” I think it will in fact come in a bit complacent here against its lowly non-conference opponent. The offense is once again led by Bo Levi Mitchell, who has 19,000 yards and 115 TD’s over four years as a starting QB with the team. The Stamps were the best defensive team in the league last year, allowing 349 total points, while also collecting 50 sacks.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Ti-Cats are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, while the Stamps are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven in this series when playing in front of the home town crowd. This one has “competitive battle” written all over it.

The set-up: While these teams combined for just two runs in the Marlins 2-0 upset victory on Friday, Saturday’s interleague contest definitely sets up as a “slugfest” in my opinion. Miami goes with the erratic Wei-Yin Chen, while Baltimore goes with confirmed “gas can” Alex Cobb.

The pitchers: Chen is so far 1-3 with a 6.13 ERA. Chen most recently was smashed for four runs off six hits and four walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Chen has now given up ten earned runs over his last 10.1 innings of work spanning three starts. Note that he’s been terrible on the road as well with an 0-3, 10.31 ERA record.

Cobb is so far 2-8 with a 7.23 ERA. Cobb most recently gave up nine runs off 11 hits and one walk while striking out five over 3.2 innings in a loss to Toronto on Sunday. To go along with his brutal 7.23 ERA, note that Cobb also sports a terrible 1.77 WHIP and 37:14 K/W over 56 innings of work. Additionally note that he’s 0-3 with a 5.71 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Miami has already seen the total go over the number in 10 of 14 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Baltimore has seen the total go over in five of eight this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This one has “offensive fireworks” written all over it.

The set-up: Detroit prevailed 4-3 over the White Sox yesterday and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors go with Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Lucas Giolito.

The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 2-0 with a 4.88 ERA. Zimmermann has been cleared to play after three minor league stints to get back into shape. The veteran has made seven starts for the Tigers this year and while his pedestrian ERA is nothing to write home about, he does have a respectable 1.31 WHIP to go along with a decent 32/9 K:W over 31.1 innings of work.

Giolito is so far 4-7 with a 7.09 ERA. Giolito most recently was smashed for four runs off four hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to the Indians on Monday. Amazingly he’d throw more balls (47) than strikes (46) and the sub-par effort would mark the seventh time in just 13 trips to the hill in which he’s walked more than he’s struck out.

The pick: Unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get Giolito back on track either, as note that he’s a terrible 1-4 with an 11.63 ERA in Chicago so far. Zimmermann comes in focused and takes full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on the Tigers.

The set-up: Group “D” has been dubbed the “Group of Death” in the 2018 World Cup. This group includes Iceland, Argentina, Croatia and Nigeria. Argentina is favored to win the Group with Lionel Messi on board. Iceland has plenty of momentum itself after knocking off England in the 2016 Euros as a +795 underdog.

The break-down: Argentina though would book its trip to the big tournament after a last second victory over Ecuador. It’s significant to note as well that Argentina would recently lose to Spain 6-1 in March, so there’s no question that there are questions surrounding the Group D favorite.

Iceland is the smallest nation by population to ever qualify for the World Cup finals and it would follow up its impressive 2016 Euro run by coming out of a group which featured Croatia, Ukraine and Turkey.

The pick: Iceland will be looking for another big upset to open the 2018 World Cup, as it catches Argentina looking extremely vulnerable. This match features a lot of offensive talent, which I believe will lead to this one sailing well above the posted number. Great value on the “over.”

The set-up: Rick Porcello has been better than advertised for the Red Sox this season, but James Paxton is the correct call in this matchup in my opinion (especially at home.) I

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 8-3 with a 3.54 ERA. Porcello most recently gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Porcello owns a super 80:20 K/W so far this year and it’s difficult to say anything negative about him, I simply think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Paxton is so far 6-1 with a 3.02 ERA. Paxton most recently went seven innings against the Rays on Sunday, giving up three runs and no walks with ten strikeouts. 73 percent of his pitches went for strikes and the southpaw was also able to induce 15 swinging strikes and seven ground ball outs. To go along with his highly respectable ERA, note that Paxton also has a sharp 11.2 K/9 (is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA at home as well.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is just 2-6 in its last eight against right-handed starters, while Seattle is 30-15 (+16.8 units) against right-handed starters. Great value in my opinion, play on the Mariners.

The set-up: Two teams with big expectations for the 2018 season collide on Friday night and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it.

The teams: Toronto won the 105th Grey Cup in 2017, its third championship since 2004. Ricky Ray returns as QB, along with playmaking WR’s SJ Green and Armanti Edwards. The Argos also feature a dynamic RB in James Wilder Jr. Overall Toronto would finish with 5,777 passing yards and it was considered one of the best “quick strike offenses” in the league. Defensively the Argos were also pretty good, a unit led by Bear Woods and Marcus Ball which would go on to produce 14 sacks.

The Roughriders finished 10-8 last season. Big things are expected from QB Brandon Bridge, who has the keys to the offense now that veteran Kevin Glenn is gone. Bridge will be looking to get Duron Carter and Naaman Roosevelt involved early and often, a duo which combined for 2,000 yards and 16 TD’s last season. The offense also looks strong with RB Tre Mason, an Auburn standout. The defense was a strength as well, as it would allow a second best 430 points overall last season.

The pick: But the Roughriders will be looking to push the pace here, as they’ve had recent success against the Argos, having taken three of the last four in the series. Clearly the defending champs won’t be rolling over though, as they’ll be looking to put on a show for the home town crowd, while also sending a message to the rest of the league. This one has the feel of a “track meet,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the “over.”

The set-up: Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, so both the Reds’ Matt Harvey and the Pirates’ Chad Kuhl catch a bit of a “break” on Friday night. This number is slightly too large in my opinion.

The pitchers: Harvey is so far 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA. Harvey comes in off a loss to the Cardinals on Friday, allowing five runs and three walks with five strikeouts over six innings. Harvey has been given another chance in the rotation to try and “right the ship,” and while that may or may not happen, I will point out that the Reds have seen the total dip below the number in ten of 15 already this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range and in 17 of 28 against right-handed starters.

Kuhl is 4-4 with a 3.95 ERA. Kuhl most recently gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out six over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Kuhl is 0-2 over his last three trips to the hill, despite allowing only six runs spanning 17.1 frames. Kuhl though has to be feeling confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has already seen the total go under the number in all three home games that it’s played in this season when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5 and in 16 of 26 against the division. Because of all of the listed factors above, play the “under.”

The set-up: Miami has struggled on the road and while its starting pitcher Jose Urena has likely done better than what his record would indicate, I still think he’s in over his head here. Baltimore and Kevin Guasman will now look to take advantage of this favorable interleague contest.

The pitchers: Urena is 1-8 with a 4.59 ERA so far. Urena most recently allowed three runs off six hits and no walks with five strikeouts over six innings in a loss to the Friars on Sunday. Urena has had many unfortunate losses this season due to lack of run support and note that he comes into this one with a poor 5.27 ERA on the road.

Gausman is so far 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA. Gausman comes in off a decent outing as well, giving up three earned runs off nine hits with six strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Saturday. Gausman has admittedly been “hit or miss” this year, but he does come in with a sharp 2.91 ERA in all night games to this point.

The pick: Both teams have been terrible in almost every statistical category there is, but this one for me comes down to the starting pitching and the home field advantage. A great price in my opinion, play on the Orioles.

The set-up: Uruguay is favoured to win Group A (host Russia is in the same group), so Egypt and Mohamed Salah are going to have their hands full today.

The breakdown: Salah is one of the best players in the World and he scored 71 percent of the Pharaohs’ goals during World Cup qualifying. Salah injured himself in league play though and his conditioning coming into the tournament is a big concern for Egypt, a nation which hasn’t played in the World Cup since 1990. In fact Egypt is the second-lowest ranked team at 67th according to the FIFA standings. Egypt will also be leaning heavily on Mohammad Al-Sahlawi, who finished the Asia’s 2018 World Cup qualifying with 16 goals.

Uruguay was knocked out of the 2014 World Cup by a surging Colombian team, so it’ll be out for redemption in this tournament. Keep your eyes on Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani, who should be able to have their way with an Egypt defense that lacks star power.

..talent. Egypt’s Salah is still a question mark at this point and if he does happen to play, will he in fact be at 100% strength? This line is way out of whack in my opinion. Great value, play on Uruguay.

The set-up: Both teams come in off victories on Wednesday. Both of these starting pitchers have looked brilliant at times this year and poor in others. I’m expecting an all out battle in the opener of this important three-game set and as such, I think laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra run-and-a-half of insurance is the correct move in this matchup. The Red Sox go with David Price, while the Mariners go with Felix Hernandez.

The pitchers: Price is so far 7-4 with a 4.00 ERA. Price most recently gave up two runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a 4-2 win over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. Price has been decent of late, but I think he’s going to struggle against the hard-hitting home side.

Hernandez is so far 6-5 with a 5.70 ERA. After dominating the Rays over eight scoreless in his previous start, Hernandez predictably came back down to Earth in his next start against the Rays, allowing six runs over three innings on Saturday. I’ll point out though that Hernandez has been much better at home (4.04 ERA) than on the road (7.71)

The pick: Both teams have been excellent this season and in my opinion, this one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the 1.5 runs.

The set-up: Winnipeg might be without starting QB Matt Nichols to open the 2018 campaign, but the Blue Bombers won’t be lacking for motivation on Opening Night after Edmonton knocked them out of the Western semi-final last year 39-32. Winnipeg won both regular season meetings a year ago though and I look for the hungry home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread that it’s been afforded.

The teams: Edmonton went 12-6 during the regular season in 2017, before then falling to Calgary in the West Final. The Eskimos feature one of the best QB’s in the league in Mike Reilly, who will have to start the season without two of his top targets in Adarius Bowman (went to Winnipeg in the offseason) and Brandon Zylstra (signed by the Minnesota Vikings.)

As mentioned above, the Blue Bombers won’t have Nichols under center, meaning that rookie Chris Streveler is “the next man up.” Streveler looked pretty good in two preseason games, going 13 of 19 for 184 yards, two TD’s and an INT. But the Bombers have a bunch of talent on both sides of field, including Bowman, Nic Demski and LB Adam Bighill. In 2015 Bighill was named the CFL’s top Defensive player.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Edmonton is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games in June, while the Bombers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against the West. While I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright, I’m banking on the home side keeping this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

The set-up: Astros starter Justin Verlander continues to defy the odds. Verlander’s career looked just about finished in Detroit, before then being traded to the Astros mid way through the year last season. The rest is history as Verlander would anchor a rotation that propelled Houston to a World Championship. Frankie Montas has been exceptional for the A’s in his limited time, but I think he’s in over his head in this matchup.

The pitchers: Verlander is so far 8-2 with a 1.45 ERA. Most recently Verlander gave up three runs off five hits while striking out nine over six innings in a win over Texas on Friday. Verlander leads the league in many statistical categories, as his 1.45 ERA and 0.76 WHIP lead all starters, while his 113 strikeouts rank fourth overall. Note that he’s 6-1 with a minuscule 0.96 ERA on the road as well.

Montas is so far 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA. Montas most recently gave up two earned runs off six hits over 7.2 innings while striking out five and walking one in the A’s eventual 7-2 win. As mentioned above, Montas has been excellent, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Houston is already 14-6 (+5.4 units) this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Oakland is just 1-4 (-2.4 units) this year as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I’m banking on Verlander to continue his progression and to get the better of his younger counterpart tonight. Lay the price.

The set-up: One of these pitchers has been solid from Spring Training, while the other returned from injury to make his first start just last week. The Indians hand the ball to Mike Clevinger in this one, while the White Sox go with Carlos Rodon.

The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA. Most recently Clevinger gave up two earned runs over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to Detroit on Saturday, also posting five strikeouts. Note that Clevinger is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA on the road and an even better 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in all “day” games.

Rodon is so far 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA. As mentioned above, Rodon made his debut against the Red Sox on Saturday, allowing four runs off six hits and two walks over five innings. Rodon was decent, but it should be noted that he was a poor 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA in all “day” games last season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is already 17-11 (+1.6 units) this year in all “day” games, while Chicago is just 8-24 (-14 units) in all “day” games. I like Clevinger to out-duel Rodon and I look for the hard-hitting Tribe to do the rest.

The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers has looked decent at times this year and also horrible in others. I’m expecting these starters to get the hook early and a result, the “over” is the correct call in my opinion. San Francisco goes with Dereck Rodriguez, while the Marlins go with Dan Straily.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA. After a decent outing against the Phillies in his debut, Rodriguez predictably came back down to Earth against the Nationals on Saturday, allowing five runs off six hits with three walks. While Miami is a favorable matchup usually for most pitchers, I still think the book is still out on the Giants’ rookie hurler.

Straily is so far 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA. Straily most recently gave up four earned runs over 3.2 innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Saturday. Note that Straily owns a poor 7.11 ERA at home, compared to 2.67 on the road.

The pick: Both starters come in off horrible performances and in my opinion, I believe it’s “foreshadowing” for more ineptitude in this one as well. I expect each to get chased early and as a result, I’m playing the over.

The set-up: Russia is hosting the 2018 World Cup, so it received an automatic bid to the Tournament. Saudi Arabia would finish up as a runner up to Japan in the Asian qualifying group.

The breakdown: Russia was actually kicked out of the group stage of the FIFA Confederations Cup last year and it comes into the tournament having with varying results, most recently beating South Korea 4-2, before then drawing with Spain. Clearly nerves will be “high” for the hosts, as they’ll be looking to avoid an epic collapse in front of the home town crowd.

Saudi Arabia is actually ranked ahead of Russia in the FIFA standings (63 compared to 64), but it comes in as a significant dog to knock off the hosts on Opening night.

The pick: Russia has netted just one goal in its two most recent home fixtures, while Saudi Arabia has failed to score in two of its last four away games. The play on this one is the “under.”

The set-up: After yesterday’s 5-1 defeat, I look for the Royals to at the very least keep this one close enough into the latter frames to earn the comfortable victory with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Reds hand the ball to Tyler Mahle, while the home side goes with Jason Hammel.

The pitchers: Mahle is 4-6 with a 4.33 ERA thus far. Most recently Mahle gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Thursday. Mahle has struggled of late, completing just six innings in just five of his 13 starts this year. Mahle has been hit or miss this season, being especially average on the road with a 3-3, 4.49 ERA.

Hammel is 2-6 with a 5.12 ERA to this point. Hammel most recently gave up four earned runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the A’s on Thursday. Hammel has struggled for most of the season, however he’s now started to turn things around by giving up just seven earned runs over his last 24.1 innings of work.

The pick: The Reds earned the rare road win last night, but they’re still just 12-20 (-3 units on the road). It’s hard to say too many positive things about the Royals, however note that they’re 6-2 in their last eight after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames, I’m playing the Royals on the run-line.

The set-up: The Reds beat the Cards 6-3 at home on Monday and I think they’ll carry that offensive momentum over here. The Royals on the other hand will be looking to get back on track after a 3-2 loss at Oakland last night. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, meaning the under is the correct move in my opinion.

The pitchers: Sal Romano gets the call for the visitors and he’s so far 3-7 with a 6.23 ERA. Romano most recently allowed five runs and a walk over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday. Romano has been poor of late, but a date against the anemic Royals is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my estimation.

Ian Kennedy is so far 1-6 with a 5.76 ERA and he’s being handed the ball by the home side. Kennedy though comes in off perhaps his best outing of the year, giving up one run off seven hits and three walks with five strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Wednesday. Like his counterpart today though, I believe that a date against the light-hitting Reds is just what he’ll need to get back on track.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Reds have seen the total go under the number in 15 of 22 already this season following a win, while the Royals have seen the total go under in 25 of 41 following a loss. Play the under.

The set-up: The Mets trot out Zack Wheeler in this National League contest on Wednesday night, and he has admittedly looked far better over the last month after a disastrous start to the 2018 campaign. The Braves go with Mike Foltynewicz on the mound and he continues to show signs that he may be able to take his play to an entirely different level and then hold it consistently.

The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA. Most recently Wheeler would go seven scoreless against Baltimore on Wednesday, giving up three hits and a walk while striking out five in what turned out to be a no-decision. Wheeler has been considerably better of late, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA in all “night” games this season.

Foltynewicz is far 5-4 with a 2.31 ERA. Most recently Foltynewicz would give up two earned runs off five hits while walking three and striking out eight over five innings in a loss to the Friars on Wednesday. Foltynewicz threw well enough to earn a victory in that one and he was just unfortunate to come out on the short end of the stick. Note thought that he’s 3-3 with a 2.38 ERA in all “night” games this year and 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York is a poor 14-22 (-7.8 units) this season against teams with winning records, while Atlanta is a decent 10-8 (+1.6 units) against clubs with losing records. A very fair price considering the situation. Play on the Braves.

The set-up: Jon Gray gets the nod for the Rockies in this one. Gray’s overall performance to this point is likely better than what his numbers would indicate, but I still think he’ll have a hard time matching pace with Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola tonight.

The pitchers: Gray is so far 6-6 with a 5.66 ERA. Gray earned a victory last time out against the Reds, allowing three runs off seven hits while striking out five over five frames on Wednesday. Gray has been better on the road than at home (not surprising considering it’s Coors Field we’re talking about), but he still enters with a poor 3-3, 4.73 ERA record away from friendly confines.

Nola is 7-2 with a 2.35 ERA. Most recently Nola would give up three runs and post six strikeouts over six innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. It was probably his worst start of the season, so there’s nothing to panic about at this point obviously. Not only does Nola own the sharp 2.35 ERA, but he also has an 80:22 K/W over 85 innings of work so far this season.

The pick: Both teams have been sliding in June. Note though that the Rockies are a poor 11-12 (-1.3 units) against clubs with winning records this year, while the Phillies are a decent 13-10 (+3.3 units) against teams with losing records. With its ace on the mound, I expect Philadelphia to get the job done in this matchup.

The set-up: It’s the opener of a three-game set between these National League foes and in my opinion, the home field advantage will prove to be the difference in the end. The Cubs go with Jose Quintana, while the Brewers hand the ball to Junior Guerra.

The pitchers: Quintana is so far 6-4 with a 4.20 ERA. Most recently Quintana gave up two runs off three hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in a somewhat unfortunate no-decision against the Phillies on Wednesday. Quintana though has been consistently inconsistent all year and I think he’ll struggle to match pace with his counterpart this evening.

Guerra is 3-4 with a 2.83 ERA. Guerra most recently allowed three runs off seven hits with one walk and five strikeouts over six innings in a loss to Cleveland on Tuesday. Despite the unfortunate setback, Guerra has still posted an awesome 15:1 K/W over his last three starts and note that he’s consistently been at his best at home this year with a 3.03 ERA thus far.

The pick: The Cubs stumbled at home to the Pirates yesterday and things definitely don’t get any easier facing the Brewers, who just took two of three from the Phillies. I think Guerra and Milwaukee are the correct all in this matchup.

analysis soon

The set-up: It’s the opener of a three-game set between these National League opponents and in my opinion, this one has “duel” written all over it. It’s southpaw vs. southpaw on Monday night, as San Francisco goes with Madison Bumgarner, while Miami goes with Wei Yin Chen.

The pitchers: Bumgarner is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Bumgarner finally returned from injury on Tuesday and he looked decent against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks by allowing two runs, while striking out three and walking none over three innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Note that Bumgarner owned a 3.26 ERA on the road last year.

Chen is 1-3 with a 5.86 ERA to this point. Most recently the leftie gave up two runs off six hits with two walks and two strikeouts over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals on Wednesday. Chen has been a disaster on the road this year (0-3, 10.31), but he’s been “lights out” at home (1-0, 1.06).

The pick: Take it for what you will, but San Fran has already seen the total go “under” the number in 18 of 34 on the road, while Miami has seen it go “under” in 17 of 30 at home this season. Expect these two starters to fight into the latter innings and for this total to fall “under” at the end of the night.

The set-up: The Yanks have taken the first two games of the sub-way series. Yesterday the Yankees came from behind to win 4-3. While that contest stayed below the posted number, I think that Sunday’s finale sets up as more of a “slug-fest.” The Yanks go with Luis Severino in this one, while the Mets hand the ball to Seth Lugo.

The pitchers: Severino is 9-1 with a 2.20 ERA. Most recently Severino gave up one run over eight innings in a win over Mariners on Monday. Let’s face it, Severino has been downright dominant this season and it’s basically impossible to say anything negative about the right-hander. This play however is more about the overall “situaiton.” 

Lugo is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA. Lugo has been used as a reliever this season and he’ll make this start in place of the injured Noah Syndergaard. Over his last two appearances he’s thrown a total of 87 pitches. Lugo is not expected to see many innings in this one, which puts added pressure on the Mets bullpen.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Yankees has already seen the total go over the number in six of eight this season as a road favorite of -175 or more, while the Mets have seen the total soar over the number in five of their last seven against right-handed starters. I think the Yanks take advantage here and while I’m not ready to lay such a steep price, this one definitely has “offense” written all over it. Play the over.

The set-up: The Phoenix Mercury have won four straight, but I think they come out complacent here, giving the advantage to the Las Vegas Aces. Las Vegas won’t be lacking motivation today as it sits at 1-6, while the Mercury come in at 6-3.

The teams: The Aces most recently lost 87-83 at home to Atlanta. A’ja Wilson was a bright spot with 20 points and nine boards. Las Vegas coach Bill Laimbeer though will be eager to get off on the “right foot” here, as this marks the opener of a four-game, six-day road trip for his team: “We're trying to find a cohesive situation," Laimbeer said yesterday. "I'm pushing any button I can to get five players (to play together.)”

The Mercury most recently hammered the Chicago Sky 96-79 on Friday, with all five starters scoring in double figures, led by center Brittney Griner with 24 points.

The pick: Las Vegas though is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after three or more SU/ATS losses, while Phoenix is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after four or more SU victories. I think that Phoenix does indeed get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent tonight and while I’ll stop short in call for the upset, this has one definitely has “nail biter” written all over it in my opinion. Play on the Aces.

The set-up: St. Louis would score the 6-4 victory over Cincinnati on Saturday and I think the visiting team will deliver the goods on Sunday afternoon as well. Carlos Martinez will be called upon by the Cards, while the Reds go with Anthony DeSclafani.

The pitchers: Martinez is so far 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA. Martinez returned from injury and put together a mediocre first outing for his standards, giving up two runs off four hits with five walks and five strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision to Miami on Tuesday. There’s no reason not to think though that Martinez won’t be able to make significant progression in his second outing back, note that he’s 2-1 with a tiny 1.83 ERA on the road thus far.

DeSclafani is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA. DeSclafani comes in off a loss on Tuesday, his first big league start since late September 2016. He’d predictably get rocked for four runs off six hits and a walk over five innings against the Rockies. Clearly the book is still out on the right-hander at this point.

The pick: St. Louis has a knack at winning the “important” games, as evidenced by its 21-11 (+8.4 units) record against the division. Cincinnati on the other hand is a horrible 6-20 (-13.2 units) against divisional foes. This line is way out of whack. Play on the Cards.

The set-up: I had a play on Seattle last night and that pick came up short, as Tampa wound up winning 7-3 with Blake Snell on the mound. Felix Hernandez wasn’t able to deliver back-to-back quality outings for the still surging Mariners, but with its bonafide ace on the mound tonight, I look for Seattle to find a way to deliver the goods in the final contest in this three game set. The Mariners go with James Paxton, while the Rays hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi.

The pitchers: Paxton is 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA so far. Most recently Paxton gave up one run and a walk to go along with six strikeouts over eight innings in a win over Houston on Tuesday. It was Paxton’s seventh quality start out of his last eight tries and note that he now owns a ridiculous 101:25 K/W over 82.1 frames of work thus far.

Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA. After going six no hit frames in his first start of the year Eovaldi would take a predictable step back in his second, giving up four runs off four hits over five innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Clearly the sample size is still way too small to get an accurate read on where Eovaldi is at this point.

The pick: Despite yesterday’s setback, note that Seattle is still 20-12 (+8 units) on the road this year, while Tampa is still only 12-15 (-4.5 units) at home. Paxton is the correct call in this matchup. Lay the price.

The set-up: These teams combined for ten runs in the Astros victory yesterday, but I believe we’ll see a much lower-scoring duel on Saturday night. The Astros hand the ball to Charlie Morton, while the Rangers go with Mike Minor.

The pitchers: Morton is so far 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Morton will be looking to return to form after his first loss of the season, giving up six runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings to Boston on Sunday. No need to panic if you’re a Morton fan though I don’t think as he owns elite numbers across the board still, including the 2.84 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 92 K’s overall. Note as well that he’s 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA on the road.

Minor is 4-4 with a 5.76 ERA so far. Minor most recently gave up four earned runs off six hits over five innings while striking out two in a 6-1 loss to the Mariners on Thursday. Minor’s ERA leaves everything to be desired, but he does own a respectable 1.35 WHIP thus far. Note that Minor has been at his best at home this year as well with a 3-2, 4.11 ERA record.

The pick: I think it’s significant to note that Houston has seen the total go “under” the number in 16 of 27 against the division this year, while Texas has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 34 against divisional opponents. This number is just a little high, play the under.

The set-up: Recent form displayed by both teams suggests that Orlando City FC is going to be in trouble here. Last weekend the Vancouver Whitecaps won at the Colorado Rapids, after drawing four straight. On the other side of the field, Orlando City’s six game win streak is well in the rear view mirror at this point as it comes in having lost four straight.

The teams: Both teams are dealing with a variety of injuries. Vancouver will be without Jordon Mutch and Stefan Marinovic, while Orlando City will be without Dillon Powers, Stefano Pimho and Jonathan Spector.

Some interesting stats to take note of: There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Orlando City’s last seven games. Vancouver has drawn its last three home matches, but there have been over 2.5 goals scored in the Whitecaps last five games. Also note that Vancouver has scored at least two gaols in its last five matches, while Orlando City has allowed at least two goals in its last four matches.

The pick: Home pitch advantage and momentum carry Vancouver to a convincing victory on Saturday night against floundering Orlando City. Great price, play on the Whitecaps

The set-up: I had a play on Seattle yesterday and it would hold on for the 5-4 victory. “Momentum” can often become a very tangible factor and I think that the Mariners carry it over into this one. Seattle goes with Felix Hernandez, while Tampa goes with Blake Snell.

The pitchers: Hernandez is 6-4 with a 5.33 ERA thus far and “The King” comes in off his best outing of the season last Sunday, striking out seven and walking one over eight scoreless innings in what turned out to be a win over Tampa Bay. Hernandez is now trending in the correct direction and I look for that momentum to get carried over here as well. Hernandez now tries to improve upon his solid 62:29 K/W on the season.

Snell is 7-3 with a 2.36 ERA. Snell threw opposite Hernandez last Sunday and he’d go six scoreless and strikeout 12 without a walk. Snell has been superb so far this year, but I simply feel that he’s facing the wrong team at the wrong time this weekend.

The pick: Seattle is a super 19-11 (+8.1 units) on the road, while Tampa is just 11-14 (-4.4 units) at home. Look for the Mariners to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The set-up: San Francisco took Game 1 of this National League series by a score of 9-5 yesterday. Nats starter Stephen Strasburg sustained an injury early and Washington’s relievers clearly weren’t prepared to step in. But a favorable matchup on the mound Saturday afternoon has the host ready to make an immediate return to the winners circle in my opinion. The Giants go with Derek Rodriguez while the Nationals go with the red hot Gio Gonzalez.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Rodriguez made the most of his first big league start, giving up one earned run off five hits and two walks with over six innings in a win over Philadelphia on Sunday. With Jeff Samardzija returning from the DL shortly, Rodriguez will be shipped backed to Triple-A Sacramento. So is Rodriguez “the real deal,” and can he duplicate his first performance in this pressure packed venue? Clearly the books is still out on the youngster.

Gonzalez is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Most recently the southpaw gave up three runs off five hits while striking out nine over seven innings with no walks in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Braves on Saturday. Gonzalez has excelled across the board this season, but he’s been especially tough at home by going 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA (he’s also 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in all “day” games.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is a poor 18-21 (-1.7 units) this season against clubs with winning records, while Washington is 27-13 (+9.2 units) against teams with winning records. After yesterday’s lop-sided defeat, I expect the hard-hitting home side to respond in turn this afternoon. Lay the price.

The set-up: Atlanta had the day off yesterday, while LA comes to town off a series win over the Pirates. There is a big talent gap on the mound today in my opinion, one so wide that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The Braves send Brandon McCarthy to the hill, while the Dodgers go with Walker Buehler.

The pitchers: McCarthy is so far 5-2 with a 4.83 ERA. McCarthy most recently gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Saturday. Previous to that decent outing though McCarthy had been rocked for five runs. To go along with his uninspiring ERA, McCarthy also owns a pedestrian 1.50 WHIP (also note that he has a 5.93 ERA in all “night” games.)

Buehler is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA so far. Most recently Buehler gave up four runs off eight hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Saturday. Considering the venue (Coors Field), it was another solid outing for the rookie. Note that it was in fact the first time in eight starts that he’d strike out less than six opponents (also note that Buehler owns a minuscule 1.44 ERA at home so far.)

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring eight or more runs in their previous contest (LA won 8-7 in Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon.) I’m banking on Buehler continuing his strong play at home and for McCarthy to once again take a step back. Lay the price.

The set-up: I had a play on the Warriors on the “money line” in Game 3, laying the larger price for what turned out to be a relatively easy victory in the end. In Game 4 though I’m predicting that the hungry Cavaliers will keep the final score much more competitive and while I wouldn’t in fact be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The teams: Golden State comes in averaging 47.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs, but only 35.6 percent from 3-point land. Kevin Durant led the way in the Game 3 win with 43 points, 13 boards and seven assists, while Stephen Curry though had just 11 points. Andre Igoudala would return for his first action of the series and score just eight points in 22 minutes off the bench.

Cleveland is hitting 45.7 percent from the floor in the playoffs and only 33.5 percent from 3-point land. LeBron James predictably led the way in Game 3 with 33 points, ten boards and 11 assists, while Kevin Love did his best with 20 points and 13 boards.

The pick: It’s do or die for the Cavaliers. Golden State now has a virtually insurmountable lead in this series and a loss here would change nothing to its odds in accomplishing that. Winning the NBA Championship at home in Game 5 in front of the home town crowd would be pretty sweet. Right? The Cavs though have been embarrassed in this series and I think they are clearly the “hungrier” team tonight. I expect Cleveland’s overall desperation to be the difference in this one. Grab the points.

The set-up: It’s the “Subway Series” for the first time this year and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel” in the first game. The Yankees will hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka, while the Mets counter with their ace Jacob DeGrom.

The pitchers: Tanaka is 7-2 with a 4.79 ERA so far. Tanaka most recently gave up four runs off eight hits with one walk over 5.1 innings while also striking out seven in a victory over Baltimore on Saturday. Tanaka has admittedly been “hit or miss” this season, but I’m expecting the hard-throwing right-hander to be at his best in this high-profile matchup.

More than anything though this pick is based on the sheer dominance of Jacob DeGrom (4-0, 1.49) who received a no-decision despite allowing only one run off seven hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out 13 against the Cubs on Saturday. DeGrom now owns a Senior Circuit-low 1.49 ERA and his 1.04 WHIP has to be considered elite. Also note that he owns a fantastic 98:21 K/W over 72.1 frames of work.

The pick: Fortunately for the sometimes volatile Tanaka, he faces an opponent which has struggled with offensive consistency all year. And especially it’s seemed whenever the Mets have had their “ace” on the mound. This one has “pitchers duel” written all over it. Play the under.

The set-up: I played on the Golden Knights in Game 4 and while that pick came up short, I firmly believe that Las Vegas will finally respond in this “do or die” situation. Once again it’ll be Braden Holtby for the Capitals in net and he’s so far 15-7 with a 2.13 GAA, while the Knights will go with Marc Andre Fleury, who is 13-6 with a 2.15 GAA.

The teams: Washington is the highest scoring team in the playoffs this year with 3.57 GPG average, but overall the Capitals are 30-23 on the road, averaging 3.08 goals and allowing 3.08 as well. TJ Oshie netted his eighth of the playoffs in the Game 4 victory, while Devante Smith-Pelly notched his sixth.

Vegas is averaging 2.84 goals in the playoffs this season, but overall the Golden Knights have gone 36-14 at home and they’ve averaged 3.58 goals and allowed just 2.42 in those games. James Neal scored in the Game 4 setback, his sixth so far of the year.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Washington is 3-8 in its last 11 after scoring five goals or more in its previous contest, while Vegas is 6-1 in its last seven after allowing five or more goals in its previous game. I think that the Golden Knights’ “magic” returns in Game 5 (for one game at least!) Lay the price.

The set-up: These teams were locked in a tight battle into the latter frames last night, but I’m expecting a decisive victory for the visitors on Thursday afternoon. The Phillies hand the ball to Nick Pivetta, while the Cubs go with Tyler Chatwood.

The pitchers: So far Pivetta is 4-4 with a 3.48 ERA. Pivetta most recently gave up three earned runs over four innings in a loss to the Giants on Friday. Previous to that though Pivetta had been on fire, going into that sub-par outing having given up just three earned runs, while striking out 32 over 24 innings. Pivetta owns a sharp 1.15 WHIP over 62 innings and he’s been at his best in all “day” games, with a 2-1, 1.88 ERA record.

Chatwood is so far 3-4 with a 4.02 ERA. Chatwood most recently gave up two runs off four hits and four walks while striking out three over 5.1 innings against the Mets on Friday. Previous to that decent performance though Chatwood had been pulled after 2.2 innings in his previous two starts, while also walking 11 opponents in that span. Chatwood owns a poor 1.73 WHIP with 47 K’s and 49 walks over 53.2 innings.

The pick: Chicago has been struggling at the plate, and I think it’s going to have its hands full with Pivetta. Chatwood’s been consistently inconsistent all year and I don’t foresee anything changing here. Play on the Phillies.

The set-up: These teams played to a wild, high-scoring slug-fest on Wednesday night, but in my opinion Thursday’s afternoon matchup sets up as more of a lower-scoring “duel.” In this one the Dodgers send Dennis Santa to the hill, while the Pirates will go with Jameson Taillon.

The pitchers: Santana is so far 1-0 with a 12.27 ERA. Santana was thrown to the wolves in his first big-league start, as he’d be called in in relief at Coors Field where he’d be smashed for five runs off six hits over 3.2 innings. However, the Dodgers were mashing the ball in that game and Santana managed to pick up the victory in the end. Over ten starts in the minors Santana posted a 2.54 ERA and 65:16 K/W over 49.2 innings.

But this pick is based mainly on the improved play of Taillon, who is 3-4 with a 3.97 ERA. Taillon most recently struck out six over eight scoreless with just one walk in a win over the Cards on Friday. Taillon now owns a superb 1.16 WHIP and a sharp 60:18 K/W over 65.2 innings.

The pick: LA has seen the total go under in 11 of 15 already this season when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go under in 15 of 25 “day” games. Play the under.

The set-up: After Cleveland lost Game 1 in the fashion that it did, you could visually see the Cavs have a mental collapse. In fact it was reported that the Cavaliers were completely dejected after the difficult setback. And that was carried over into Game 2, where they got out to a slow start and then they were never able to catch up. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and the rest of the defending champions can now “smell the blood in the water” and I believe that laying the larger price on the money line is the sharp call in Game 3.

The teams: The Warriors are shooting 47.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including only 35.6 percent from range. Curry though would hit a record nine three-pointers in Game 2 and the super star sharp-shooter now looks like he’s back to top form. Durant had 26 points, nine boards and seven assists in the victory, while Klay Thompson added 20.

The Cavaliers are shooting just 45.7 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including only 33.5 percent from 3-point land. LeBron James had 29 points, nine boards and 13 assists in the Game 2 loss, while Kevin Love added 22 points and ten boards. After his colossal Game 1 blunder, JR Smith had just five points last time out.

The pick: This pick is on the money line, but I’ll point out that Golden State is still 21-16 ATS the last three years when leading in a playoff series, while Cleveland is just 7-19 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more. Forget the spread and lay the price on the surging Warriors.

The set-up: The Twins took Game 1 of yesterday’s double-header by a score of 4-2, while the White Sox would respond in the second with a 6-3 victory. Chicago though sends an erratic starter to the hill, making Minnesota well worth the price of admission in this spot in my opinion. 

The pitchers: The White Sox go with Hector Santiago, who is so far 1-2 with a 5.10 ERA. Most recently Santiago would allow three runs off five hits and five walks with one strikeout over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Brewers on Friday. Carlos Rodon is expected to be back from injury soon and when he does, Santiago will be moved back to the bullpen. And that’s probably good news for ChiSox fans, as Santiago owns a poor 0-2, 8.50 ERA record in all “night” games this season.

The Twins go with Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 4.14) who was blasted for eight runs off seven hits in a loss to the Indians on Thursday. Previous to that though Odorizzi had given up just five runs over 27.1 innings, so I’m not going to over-react to one poor outing. Odorizzi has to be feeling confident here as well with a 2-1, 3.90 ERA record in all home contests to this point.

The pick: Minnesota has won the “important” contests this season, going 11-6 (+4.6 units) against the division. Chicago on the other hand has been a disaster across the board, especially against clubs with losing records, going just 11-18 (-7.2 units). I like Odorizzi to bounce back here in front of the home town crowd.

The set-up: The Rangers pulled away late in yesterday’s 7-4 victory and I think the home side looks poised to build off that performance. Daniel Mengden has been sharp, but I think the venerable Bartolo Colon will at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning on Wednesday night.

The pitchers: The A’s do indeed go with Mengden, who is so far 6-4 with a 2.91 ERA. Mengden comes in off a victory over the Rays on Thursday, allowing three runs off six hits and two walks over eight innings. Mengden has won four straight, but I’ll point out that the A’s are a poor 4-7 in their last 11 after allowing seven or more runs in their previous outing.

Colon is so far 2-3 with a 4.21 ERA. Most recently the veteran gave up six runs off eight hits over three innings in a loss to the Angels on Friday. Colon hasn’t been at his best over the last couple of weeks, but he still enters this contest with a sharp 1.03 WHIP and 44:8 K/W spanning 66.1 innings of work.

The pick: Texas is a fantastic 11-4 in its last 15 after scoring seven or more runs in its previous contest. Suffice it to say, I look for that strong trend to carry over here.