Coming off a close call against Missouri, I expect Auburn to deliver a knockout blow to Oklahoma on Saturday. This time, the Tigers, who are ranked #1 for the first time in program history, are at home. The Tigers have won their ten home games this year by an average of 18.8 points.

Oklahoma just ended a four-game losing streak by winning at West Virginia. The Sooners have been competitive at times this year, but this will be their third game against a top five opponent in the last 11 days. It’s a really horrid spot for them.

Against Missouri, Auburn simply did not shoot the ball well. They made only 30 percent from the field and scored only 55 points. That was after scoring 80 or more in six straight games. Look for the Tigers to get back on track offensively this afternoon. 

OU is shooting less than 30 percent from three, on the road, this season. That’s not going to cut it here. 

The Sooners have won nine straight games against SEC competition. That streak ends here. The Tigers pounce. Lay the number.

We’ve got Michigan State coming off a loss and Michigan needing this game pretty badly. The unranked Wolverines have put together a nice three-game win streak, but are still only 10-7 on the season. They need more wins to boost their NCAA Tournament resume. Winning at East Lansing would be a big help.

But the Spartans just dropped a one-point decision at Illinois earlier in the week. It was low-scoring, 56-55, and that’s what I think this game will be as well.

During the three-game win streak, Michigan has shot better than 57 percent from the floor. There’s simply no way that can continue. Not against a MSU team that is keeping its opponents below 40 percent shooting for the season. Visiting teams are hitting less than 30 percent from three at the Breslin Center.

Of course, MSU shot very poorly in the Illinois game, making just 34.5 percent of its attempts. 

The Under has hit each of the previous four times Sparty has been a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 points. 

The Stars are back home after a lengthy road trip. Dallas won their last four straight, all on the road. Previous to this stretch, they were a miserable 4-12 as a road team this season, so they’ve been playing surprisingly well lately. At home, it is a different story; they are a dominant 14-4 to date. The Caps are 3-7 in their last 10 games and the list of teams they have beaten in this stretch is unimpressive. They have also struggled badly this season when playing out on the west coast. Neither projected goaltender has been especially sharp. Samsonov has only played twice in the last two weeks and lost both games.

I favor the Stars in this match-up. Dominant at home, they catch a Washington team at a low point and on the road. Take the Stars to steal this one.

Spurs’ home games tend to be rather high scoring, so I’ll bet this one to “go high.” An average of 226.5 total points per game is scored when they open the doors at the Alamo. While we need a few more than that tonight, I think we get it. 

Chicago is getting back to full strength and has scored 111 points in each of its last two contests. They are top ten in the league in scoring and had a very efficient night vs. Toronto on Wednesday. Both DeRozan and LaVine had 23 or more points.

San Antonio is also top ten in scoring. They could only manage 110 points in their last game, which was the second night of a back to back against Memphis. But the game before that, against Houston, they finished with 134 points.

Expect the Spurs to shoot better here than they did against the Grizzlies from long distance. Making only 24% of their attempts in the Memphis game was their worst effort on threes since November 18th. 

The Bulls also haven’t shot it that well from long range of late. But they are 37.7% for the season, so expect a turnaround from them as well. Take the Over.

Lehigh has covered three straight games, but all of those were as underdogs. Tonight marks just the second time in conference action that they’re favored and once again the opponent is Holy Cross. The Mountain Hawks did win and cover that first matchup, 77-69 laying 6.5 points, back on January 10th. But that was at home and with HC having a poor shooting night.

The line for this game, at Holy Cross, is almost the same as it was for the game three weeks ago. That seems strange. Lehigh is just 2-12 ATS its last 14 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in that role this season. Tonight is the first time in 2021-22 that they have been giving points on the road. 

Holy Cross’ record is a pretty woeful 3-15, but this is a game the Crusaders can win. Even though they missed 14 of the 18 three-point attempts they took, the first meeting with Lehigh was decided by only eight points. HC shoots much better from behind the arc when they are at home (38%).

All of the Crusaders wins this year have come at home. Lehigh is 9-29 in its last 38 road games, 3-8 this season. Take the points.

The Lakers now have Anthony Davis back, so maybe they finally get going? With Davis logging 25 minutes in his first game in more than a month, the Lakers downed the Nets 106-96 back on Tuesday. LA had gone 7-10 in the 17 games that Davis missed. 

Problem is that tonight the Lakers still have to deal with Joel Embiid. Embiid has been a beast lately. Tuesday marked the sixth time this year that Embiid has gone for 40+ points and 10+ rebounds in a game. The 76ers won 117-107, beating the New Orleans Pelicans.

I think that both the Lakers and Sixers are ready to put up some points Thursday night on TNT. Let’s not forget LeBron James, who has been scoring at will recently. He has 18 straight games with 26 or more points. He went for 33 in the win at Brooklyn.

Three of the last four games, Philly has scored 115 or more points. They shouldn’t have too much trouble scoring on the Lakers, who are bottom five in scoring defense. 

The Over has hit in four of the Lakers' last five road games and seven of their last 10 overall. That’s how I see this one going. 

Off a loss, last Friday, you may think that the smart money is on #11 Wisconsin to bounce back here. But the Badgers are ranked too high and after previously winning seven in a row, they’re due to start giving some back. 

Wisconsin had also covered five in a row before running into Michigan State last week. They lost 86-74 last Friday, playing without third leading scorer Wahl. The team’s leading scorer, Davis, missed 10 of 13 shots in the first half as the Badgers fell behind by 16. 

There have been four games this season where Wisconsin has rallied from a double digit deficit to win. That seems a bit fortuitous. 

Now it’s not been a good season in Lincoln as Nebraska has lost six straight and 11 of the last 12. This game, which was originally going to take place on Tuesday, had to be moved back as the Cornhuskers were dealing with COVID. But trust me when I say there’s nothing they’d like more here than to play “spoiler.”

When Wisconsin won seven in a row, five of those wins were by six points or less. They don’t dominate and won’t be able to win by a large margin here tonight.

So we’re going with VCU here, based on how the line is moving and the fact I don’t believe Davidson should be ranked. Sure, the Wildcats are among the hottest teams in the country right now with 15 straight wins. But the last three have been by a total of eight points.

I view Davidson’s #25 ranking as a bit of a “ok we acknowledge what you’re doing” from the oddsmakers. But I don’t think anyone REALLY thinks this is a Top 25 team. The Wildcats were expected to be middle of the pack in the Atlantic 10 this year.

One of Davidson’s recent three close victories, all of which were on the road, came at VCU. The Wildcats ended that game on a 10-2 run. That was one of just two losses for VCU since the beginning of  December.

The Rams are a top three team (in the country!) in adjusted defensive efficiency. So I believe they can limit Davidson from three-point range. The Wildcats have been making a living behind the arc, making 41% of their attempts, second best in the country.

VCU is coming off a 70-54 win over St. Joe’s and looking for revenge. Davidson, who was down 47-40 to lowly Fordham in the second half on Saturday, is coming off three straight road games that went down to the wire and may have little left in the tank. Take the points here. 

Iowa State continues to get little respect as they are underdogs for their visit to Stillwater on Wednesday night. The lack of respect stems from the fact the Cyclones have dropped five of their last seven games, following a 12-0 start. They have only two conference victories since the start of last year, both coming this season. But I will take them plus the points in this spot, noting Oklahoma State’s own slump and inability to score points.

Over their last 10 games, OSU is just 4-6 and averaging 64.3 points while shooting 39.7%. That’s not good. On Saturday, the Cowboys went down at the hands of Texas, 56-51 as 10-point road underdogs.

Tonight will mark just the second time in the last nine games that the Pokes have been favored. They did win the other time, but just by one point (against TCU) and thus did not cover the spread. OSU only has four double digit victories all year and the last one was right before Thanksgiving.

Iowa State continues to be solid, defensively. They allow just 59.9 points per game as opponents are shooting just 40.8%. 

So with Oklahoma State unlikely to score much tonight, it seems quite logical to grab the points. They have actually failed to cover the spread six straight times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.

The Blackhawks have lost 4 straight and are a very poor road team this year. The Red Wings, for such a low flyer, are a very good home team and surprisingly successful in the rare games they are favored. The Wings are better on offense and well rested, with solid goaltending considering their position in the league. The Blackhawks are going nowhere this season, are likely facing the breakup of a once very proud franchise as we approach the trade deadline. Look for the Red wings to stay true to form, winning at home and as a favorite.

Charlotte looks to pick up the pieces after losing 125-113 in Toronto last night. Giving up 39 points in the first quarter is what ultimately doomed the Hornets, although another tough night from behind the arc didn’t help either. In their last two games, the Hornets are a wretched 10 of 67 on three-point attempts.

Perhaps taking it to the basket would be a prudent move tonight against Indiana. The Pacers have allowed 130 points in the paint during their last two games, both of which have been losses.

Both of these teams are somewhat relegated to the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference. But there should be no argument as to which is having the better overall season. Charlotte remains four games over .500 while Indiana is languishing, 14 games below the Mendoza Line. 

The Hornets have had the Pacers number this year, winning all three previous meetings. All three were close, but Charlotte has averaged 120 points per game. 

Charlotte is also a top five team in offensive efficiency. They are the second-highest scoring team in the league. Lay the short number on the road. 

These are the two top teams in the Pac 12 and two of the top 10 in the country. Arizona is #3 in the latest poll and got one first place vote. UCLA moved up a couple spots to #8. 

This game was supposed to take place on December 30th, but UCLA was dealing with COVID issues. The delay may have worked in the Bruins’ favor as fan restrictions have now been lifted and they can enjoy a sense of “home court” advantage at Pauley Pavillion.

Arizona’s one loss this season was on the road, to a Top 25 team. They fell 77-73 at Tennessee on December 22nd. The Wildcats have looked impressive since then, posting five straight double digit wins in conference play. But other than Illinois, they haven’t beaten that many quality teams this year.

UCLA beat Villanova back in November and also went to Marquette and won. One of their losses was by just three points, to Oregon, while the other was to #2 Gonzaga. 

The Bruins have beaten Arizona five straight times and are 5-0 ATS as well. Look for them to make it six straight tonight.

Dallas just beat Memphis 104-91 for its 12th win in 14 games. So they are likely feeling good about themselves heading to Golden State. The Mavericks have never lost in the Warriors’ “new building.” They are 3-0 SU/ATS all-time at the Chase Center. Every win has come by at least 20 points.

Golden State, meanwhile, seems to be reeling a bit even though they’ve posted back to back wins. But the two wins were each by just two points and they did not cover the spread in either game. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. 

Poor shooting, especially from Steph Curry, has plagued the Warriors a bit recently. Curry is averaging only 20.1 points while shooting 27.6% from three the L10 games. Over the last 14 games, the team has failed to reach 100 points a total of seven times.

But even though Dallas has been dialed in defensively, I believe that Golden State will break out of its “slump” tonight at home, on TNT. The Warriors are still averaging 111.9 points at home. 

They also remain better than the Mavericks at the defensive end. Golden State is #1 in the league in scoring defense and gives up just 99.3 points per game at home. This is a short number for them and I say lay it.

The Jets have been struggling, losers of 4 straight, however they have faced 4 very strong teams, and lost by a single goal in each case. The Panthers are a different team away from home, and have been on a western swing for 10 days now. This is a great opportunity for the Jets against a road-weary Panthers outfit, who were knocked off by the Kraken just two nights ago. The Jets struggle to put the puck in the net right now (two goals a game for three games running) and likely face a tough act in Bobrovsky tonight. A Winnipeg win is possible but another close loss is a more likely outcome. Take the Jets +1 ½.

Both of these teams could badly use a win. Washington is off what coach Wes Unseld Jr termed the team’s “worst loss of the season,” a 116-87 beatdown at the hands of the Celtics (I had Boston!)

While the Wizards have lost three in a row and four of their last five, the Clippers have dropped four of their last six, including a 110-102 decision at New York on Sunday. Keep in mind that LA’s last win saw them rally from a 24-point deficit to beat Philadelphia by one on the road.

If nothing else, Washington will shoot better in this game compared to Sunday when they made just 35.5 percent of their attempts from the floor. Three of their key scorers - Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - combined to shoot 0 for 14 from three-point range.

Giving up an average of 111.4 points over their last five games, the Wizards will HAVE to shoot better. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Washington has been favored, with all those games taking place at home.

The Over has also hit 23 of the previous 32 meetings. So go with that here.

In their last 19 visits, Siena is a fascinating 17-2 ATS when playing at Iona. But tonight should go differently in the MAAC. After almost a full month off (COVID cancellations), Siena will be playing its third straight road game on Tuesday. They lost the last one, 75-68 at Manhattan. Iona is clearly the best team in the conference this year, at 16-3 overall and 8-0 vs. other MAAC teams. 

Iona is a big favorite, but that’s not without justification. The Gaels are riding a five-game win streak and their only loss since the beginning of December came by a single point at St. Louis. This is a good team we’re backing today. They are coming off a 15-point win as 8.5 point favorites, on the road, over Quinnipiac Saturday.

Iona hasn’t lost a home game this year, even though they are only shooting 30.4% from three. Their success can be attributed to their FG% defense. Opponents shoot just 39.5% at Iona, including 25.3% from three.

Look for Iona, who averages 78.9 points at home, to shoot better from three tonight. Siena is outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Even worse is that the Saints rank outside the top 300 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Iona ranks in the top 81 nationally at both ends.

This long-standing rivalry between the two upstate New York schools has seen Siena cash more often than not, at least when they’re on the road. But tonight will be different. Lay the points with Iona. 

Playing against a bad team that’s coming off a rare win always seems to be a good idea and that’s what I’m doing here with Idaho. The Vandals won 73-72 on Saturday, beating Sacramento State. It was their first win since before Christmas when they beat a team named “SAGU American Indian College.” 

Idaho needed overtime to get that win Saturday. They gave up 42 points in the second half, which was the most points scored by Sacramento State in any half this season. 

The win was at home. On the road, Idaho is 0-9. They’ve lost 30 of 33 road games the last three years.

Portland State’s only win since Christmas also came against Sacramento State. But that was back on 1/15. Since then, the Vikings have lost three in a row. They know tonight is their best chance at a win in some time.

This will also be PSU’s third straight home game. Next they’ve got Southern Utah, who is one of the better Big Sky teams. The fact the Vikings keep visiting teams to 62 points/game (on 38% shooting) tells me they can win this one rather comfortably, so lay the points.

St Louis has been a sharp 7-2 in January, but Binnington has been in the net for both of losses. He seems to have lost his luster this year, and had not played regularly in January. In the Flames net, Markstrom has had his moments, but has been off more often than on lately. Wins have been rare for the Flames in January with both offense and defense struggling. Not so the Blues, but they are on the wrong side of a back to back. The total is average today, and doesn’t accurately reflect the performance of the net-minders at this moment. Expect some goal production from both teams and take the over.

Miss Valley State is as bad as any College Basketball team in the country. They have just one win this season and it came by two points, in overtime, against a Prairie View A&M squad that also happens to be rated among the nation’s very worst. Since that lone win, the Delta Devils have been blown out by Texas Southern and been rather competitive in three other defeats. Tonight’s game is likely to go poorly for them.

Southern U is coming off a 48-point win on Saturday where they almost scored 100 points (99). They shot 56.5% and held Ark-Pine Bluff to 31.4%. The win was the Jaguars’ seventh in the last nine games. The two losses both came on the road and one was at Dayton.

Southern has only played five games at home this season. They’re 5-0 and winning by almost 30 points/game. I look for a win of a similar margin here tonight. The last two times they faced MVSU, the game was at home and the margins of victory were 33 and 41 points.

On the road, MVSU is getting beat by 28.5 points/game. 

Not only is Southern 12-4 ATS in all of its lined games this season, they are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games. Should be an easy one for them on Monday, so be sure to lay the points.

The Knicks are playing the second game of a back to back after defeating the Clippers 110-102 at home yesterday. That was a fairly “high scoring” result by their standard. Going back to Christmas, New York has held nine different opponents below 100 points. At the same time, there have been six occasions where they failed to crack the century mark themselves. 

Cleveland is coming off a really low scoring win. They defeated Oklahoma City 94-87 on Saturday, holding the Thunder’s starting frontcourt to 5 of 25 shooting. It was the sixth win the last seven games for the surprising Cavaliers.

This promises to be a low-scoring affair as well. These are two of the top five scoring defenses in the NBA right now. The Cavs are allowing just 101.5 points/game at home. The Knicks are allowing just 103.3 points/game on the road.

The Knicks typically don’t shoot the ball very well. Their FG% for the year is only 43.6 and they’ve been below that three of the previous four games, including yesterday. 

The Under is 14-7 in Cavs’ home games. In addition to possibly being without PG Rajon Rondo (questionable), who has missed the last six games, the team will definitely be without Lauri Markkanen as he sprained his ankle in Saturday’s win. Look for this game to stay UNDER. 

The Canucks are very short-handed on offense tonight, missing the equivalent of a top line due to Covid, and it is very unclear as to who is available in net. The Blues are healthy, 5th in the league in offense, 7th in defense and are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Binnington is not as sharp as in past years, and the over has been consistent in their games. The Canucks don’t score much at the best of times, but have held 3 top teams to 1, 1, & 2 goals in their last three games. I am confident that the Blues will win tonight, but with the uncertainty around the Canucks’ goalie situation, the margin of that win is in question. Pay the price and take the Blues to win.

Bills face the Chiefs on Divisional game day. Let us get to the point, and make this short but sweet. Bills will win, and they will have their defense to thank. Two super-hot QBs face off, both in prime form. Mahomes has slightly better passing stats, but Allen is better protected and more of a running threat. I get that Mahomes can be a game changer, but Allen is no slouch in that department either. Give a slight nod to the Chiefs’ passing offense, if you will, but after than it is all about the Bills. They are better on both sides of the ball in the red zone, are 6th on avg. in the major rushing categories, and far superior on defense.

There was a stretch when the Chiefs held the opposition to under two touchdowns on defense, but that has not been the case lately. The Bills have the best defense against the run, and are first in too many categories to list here. The Bills’ O-line has been terrific this year, and their defense has savaged opposing Qbs at an average of 5+ over the last three games.  I really don't see Kansas City matching up well here. Yes, the Chiefs are at home this week but the Bills are playing like a team on a mission right now. Bills to cover, and very likely win.

I like this play quite a bit. Looking at the standings, Washington is 9th and Boston is 10th. Neither has played all that well of late. Boston has dropped two in a row, both as a favorite, while Washington is 1-8 ATS its last nine games. The Wizards have also lost two straight as a favorite.

But what sticks out here is that the Celtics have a better point differential. They are better defensively than the Wizards. Looking at all the realistic playoff contenders in the East, the Wiz have the worst point differential.

Boston lost twice to Washington early in the year. In the second game, they sank only 2 of 26 three-point attempts. That’s very bad and also unlikely to repeat itself. Speaking of bad three-point shooting, leading scorer Jayson Tatum has missed his last 20 3PA. This is a player that ranks 10th in the NBA at 25.2 points per game.

I believe the Celtics are due to make a lot of threes in this game. If nothing else, the law of averages is in their favor. 

Going back to January 4th, the Wizards have beaten only one team that wasn’t Orlando or Oklahoma City. Go with the better team on Sunday. TAKE BOSTON

The Rams face the Buccaneers for the second time this season, only this time it is for most the marbles. Not that it really matters at this point, but Tampa Bay has been lights out as a home team, and the Rams are a very good on the road this year. With Brady and Stafford at QB, both these teams are going to score points, and while the teams may run the ball, it will be to set up to two very good pass offenses. That said, the Bucs and Rams have good news on the rush offense side. RB Fournette will be healthy for the Bucs and the Rams have Akers back for only the 2nd time this season. Neither pass defense is in the top echelon, although the Rams did shut the Cardinals down effectively last weekend. Brady and Stafford will likely face more pressure than they are used to. The Rams in particular, have been tough on Qbs lately, and it is still not completely clear how injury will affect the Buc’s defensive line. Not to forget that these teams are 1st and 6th in protecting their passer. Stafford has had issues with interceptions, but didn’t throw the ball away at all last week. Brady rarely throws the ball away. I can see both offenses stepping it out this weekend. Weather conditions will be fine. Look for a ton of points scored. Take the Rams and Bucs to go over the total.

Red hot Marquette hosts #20 Xavier here. The Golden Eagles have won five in a row and covered the spread every time. They are fresh off an upset of #11 Villanova earlier this week. It was their third straight win over a ranked opponent.

This Marquette team has balance with four players averaging at least 11 points. During the win streak, the Golden Eagles are averaging 79.4 points and giving up only 64.4. Xavier’s last five games, which includes two losses, have been much tighter. The Musketeers are averaging only 70.6 points and giving up 69.4. 

The revenge angle is in play here as Xavier beat Marquette back in December, 80-71. But Marquette is obviously playing much better now. They held Providence and Villanova both under 60 points. 

Beating ‘Nova was really impressive. Marquette was the first road team to win there since 2018.  

So at home, I like the Golden Eagles to handle their business. Xavier has lost twice to Villanova recently and they were a bit lucky to stave off what was almost another loss on Thursday. They were down 10 in the second half to a DePaul team that was playing without its leading scorer. The Musketeers ended up winning by only one point, 68-67.  It was the fifth time they failed to cover in the last six games. TAKE THE POINTS

The Packers are back from their bye week, rested and at home, but I wonder just how comfortable they are with this weekend’s match-up. The 49ers’ defense is tough and improving of late. In the last 3 weeks; 4+sacks a game, rush yards against average of 75, pass yards against 189, and an average quarterback rating of 78. You get my point. The last time the Packers played a solid defense was against the Browns, with a very close 22-20 win the result. Now throw in serious low temperatures, wind, and possible snow, all elements that would suggest more of a running game. The 49ers are 7th and climbing in rushing yards, with their Deebo/Mitchell combo. The Packers can also run, although not quite as effectively. They just can’t stop the run (31st in rush yards against). Worst case scenario for the Packers is the Giants coming in and running the ball all the cold day long. I am not saying we won’t see any magic from Rodgers, just less of it. If there weren’t injury issues with a couple of 49ers players, this would be a wager on San Francisco. All things considered, I like the total in this game. Take the 49ers and Packers to go under the total.

Wyoming has had a couple close calls over its current five-game win streak. But both of those were not at home. In Laramie, the Cowboys are 7-0 with a +26.9 scoring average. I’m surprised they’re not favored by more here, especially with New Mexico on a five game losing streak. 

Perhaps the line is shorter than expected because New Mexico is 11-5-1 ATS. Wednesday was the fifth time they’ve covered in the last six games. But this is a situation where the Lobos are simply overmatched. The oddsmakers were a bit too generous in giving them 16 points at Colorado State. But that game saw New Mexico shoot better than expected and make 14 threes. 

Don’t think they’ll do that again. Wyoming is excellent defensively as it is allowing less than 40 percent shooting for the year. The Cowboys just won by 15 on Wednesday against San Jose State, keeping their perfect conference record intact. Four minutes into the game, they took the lead and never relinquished it.

New Mexico allowing 83.4 points on the road is a problem, for them at least. Wyoming’s only two losses this year were to Pac 12 teams, one of which was Arizona. The home team is just way better. Lay the points with WYOMING

Both Coppin State and Norfolk State are on 3-0 ATS win streaks entering Saturday. But the similarities end there. Norfolk State has simply been the better team all year. They have an 11-4 straight up record on the season while Coppin State has won only three games straight up all year. 

Norfolk State has also won all three of the games it has covered in a row. The last one was a 14-point victory at MD-Eastern Shore. That game saw the Spartans pull away in the second half. After playing so many games on the road the last two months, Norfolk State will be glad to be back home. They’ve won all four games on their home court and done so by an average of 36 points per contest! 

Coppin State was a small underdog in recent wins over South Carolina State and Morgan State. Before those wins, the Eagles had lost nine in a row. Last Saturday’s win came on a buzzer beater from beyond halfcourt. Coppin State trailed by 10 at halftime against Morgan State. So had it not been for the buzzer beater, we’d be talking about a team that had lost 10 of 11.

Like Norfolk, Coppin State has played most of its games on the road. Problem is they are 2-13 away from home, those two wins coming each of the last two Saturdays. Can’t see them making it three in a row. Norfolk State is the best team in the MEAC and should win handily. Play on NORFOLK STATE

In what could end up being a high scoring game, I like Eastern Washington to win at home. It’s difficult for me to see Northern Colorado being able to shoot the ball as well as they did Thursday at Idaho. The Bears made 57.1% of their field goal attempts, including 47.4% from three, on their way to an 87-70 win.

It also helped that NCO saw Idaho make only 3 of its 16 three-point attempts. The wide disparity in three-point shooting basically dictated that game’s outcome. While NCO is a good three-point shooting team, they face an EWU team that is keeping its opponents right around 30% for the year from distance.

Eastern Washington has gotten to play just six home games and three have been since the New Year. They’ve won two in a row, besting Idaho 96-93 and then Sacramento State 75-62 on Thursday. Normally, the Eagles are very good in Cheney. Their home record the last three seasons is 24-6. 

So getting the home team at this price seems ideal. They are on an 18-5 ATS run when playing with just one day of rest between games. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON

The high-flying Bengals, led by star QB Joe Burrow, face a formidable ground-dwelling Titans team that likely features the return of the King, Derrick Henry. Burrow has put up the big numbers in spite of being sacked more than just about any QB in the league. The Titans’ defense sit 25th in passing yards given up, however they are much better in points allowed in the air (7th) and passing first downs. They will get to Burrow, but that hasn’t seemed to matter to his performance. The Bengals’ run defense, 7th for the season, has struggled lately, giving up 150+ yards on average in their last three games.

While this game could be close, I favor the Titans for several reasons. Running under all of the hype around the return of Henry, Tannehill has put together some good outings in his last games. The Bengals’ pass defense is well below average and their defensive line is seriously compromised by injuries. The Titans will have more of a flexible offense on Saturday, and have had very good success in the red zone. The Bengals have a very solid running back in Joe Mixon, but don’t use him much and the Titans’ run defense is very very tough. The Titans will struggle to contain Burrow and Co., but they don’t give up a lot of points and are 4th in red-zone defense. The Titans are healthy and well rested. The best defense against Burrow is to keep him off the field. I think the Titans will establish a run game against the Bengals and slow this game down. A healthy Henry would just be the icing on the cake. Look for the Titans to win and cover.

Oklahoma City is not strong offensively. They actually rank dead last in the NBA in points per game as well as three-point shooting, and have scored 97 points or less in six of their last 11 games. But I think they’ve got an opportunity to break out tonight against Charlotte, who allows the second most points per game in the league. 

The Hornets’ defense has been a bit more sound of late while winning six of their last seven games. Three of those games have seen them allow fewer than 100 points. Five times they’ve allowed no more than 106. But eventually they’re going to revert back to their “old ways” and tonight might just be that night.

The Thunder are coming off three consecutive games where they shot below 44%. It’s tough to shoot any worse than they did Wednesday in San Antonio when they made only 38.8% of their field goal attempts. That included 25% from three. I predict OKC will in fact shoot better tonight, leading to more points scored. 

Charlotte is 11-4 Over this season when facing a team that has a losing record. That’s the way I’m going here.

The two hottest teams from the MAC will hook up tonight in Athens, Ohio has won nine straight games and is 14-2 on the season. Toledo carries a five-game win streak into this game and they have also covered the spread in each of those five victories.

Ohio hasn’t lost at home this year. The Bobcats are 8-0 in Athens and winning by 11.4 points per contest. Their only two losses this year came against Kentucky and LSU! This is a good basketball team.

Not saying Toledo isn’t any good, but the fact they are on the road places the Rockets at a slight disadvantage. All four of their losses this year have come away from home. In the last two road games, UT gave up 72 and 78 points.

Ohio has been a covering machine in the MAC the past three seasons. They are 27-13 ATS. The last time they faced Toledo was the MAC Tournament in March and the Bobcats won that game. They’d make the NCAA Tournament and pull a first round upset over Virginia.

Four starters are back from that NCAA Tournament squad and the Bobcats remain the favorites to win the league this year. Each of their last four home wins have come by at least seven points. Lay the points with OHIO

Something you probably did not expect to hear is that each of the last eight games involving the Warriors have seen the losing team fail to score 100 points. Twice the winning team didn’t either. 

The Under is somehow only 5-3 in that stretch of games for Golden State. That seems surprising. They scored 138 points in a win over Chicago last week. But other than that, only one of the other seven games has seen more than 218 total points scored.

Indiana is just searching for wins. They got one yesterday by beating the Lakers 111-104. But that was just the second time the Pacers have been victorious since Christmas. The Under is 5-2 when they are in the second night of a back to back this season.

Golden State has been a bit of an Under machine this year. All but 15 games have gone low this season. They are 24-9 Under as a favorite. Conversely, Indiana is 17-6 Under when they are an underdog. So this has all the makings of a low-scoring game.

In just their second home game together in 2 ½ years, Curry, Thompson and Green combined to shoot 20 of 37 in the last game, against Detroit. Collectively, they probably aren’t going to shoot that well again. Grab the UNDER

Earlier this month, Murray State made news by announcing it would be joining the Missouri Valley Conference in July. But that’s the future. Here in the present, the Racers are dominating their current conference (Ohio Valley) with a 5-0 record. They are 15-2 overall on the season.

That dominance should - pretty clearly - continue tonight when Murray State hosts Eastern Illinois. The Racers are - justifiably - big favorites here. They’ve won their eight home games by an average of almost 28 points.

Then you’ve got Eastern Illinois, who is 2-14 overall and hasn’t won a single road game. EIU will not be sad to see Murray State leave the OVC. Three days ago, at home, they lost 72-46 to the Racers at home. 

So it’s a quick rematch and obviously there’s no reason to think that things will go any better here for the underdog. Eastern Illinois is just 14-28 ATS in conference play the last three seasons. They are putting up only 50.7 points per game away from home. 

Murray State has covered 10 of the last 13 times it has been a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. This is a large spread, but for good reason. Lay it!

Winthrop has a perfect 3-0 straight up record in the Big South, but the Eagles have been unable to cash any tickets as favorites this year. They are 0-7 ATS in the chalk role and have not covered any of the last five games.

But I look for that to change on Thursday. Winthrop takes on a struggling Presbyterian side tonight.  It’s a road game, but Presbyterian isn’t a team to be feared. In their last home game, they lost 82-72 as an eight point favorite.

As conference foes, these teams meet twice every year. It’s an interesting pattern the previous two years. Winthrop won all four games, but failed to cover the spread every time.

That plays a bit into the recent form of the Eagles winning, but not covering. However, what I find interesting is that they were double digit favorites each of those last four games against Presbyterian. Here, it’s a relatively short number and I’m seeing value on the road team. 

Presbyterian has lost eight straight games against Division I opponents. Since the beginning of December, the only three teams that the Blue Hose have beaten are: Bob Jones U, Carver Bible and Truett-McConnell. I’m not making those schools up. Lay the points with WINTHROP

San Antonio’s quest to make it back to .500, or at the very least get back in the top 10 in the West, requires that they win games like this. Tonight they host Oklahoma City, unquestionably one of the four worst teams in the league.

The Thunder have been covering at a high rate this year, as they are always underdogs. But they’ve got just one win in the last eight games. 

Truthfully, the Spurs haven’t been much better, with just two wins in their last 12 games. But they led Phoenix in the fourth quarter, here at home, the other night. I just have a “feeling” this is the game where SA “puts it all together.” 

OKC was down 22 Monday in Dallas. That they were able to close the gap to two when the final buzzer sounded is a little bit misleading.

The Spurs have covered four straight times following a double digit loss at home. Take them minus the points here.

The last time Kentucky played, they put up 107 points. That would be impressive against anyone, but to do that against Tennessee, a nationally ranked team that’s also fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, well that’s just awesome.

Proud to say I had the Wildcats against Tennessee. Look for them to score a lot again tonight as they visit Texas A&M. Kentucky is averaging 84 points per game this season. They’ve gone over 90 in five of the last eight games.

But A&M can score too. Especially when they’re at home. The Aggies average 80.9 points here in College Station. I know that the last two games, both Unders, were low-scoring. But before that A&M had a streak of six straight games scoring at least 80 points.

Frankly, I’m stunned this total isn’t higher. A&M, who is on an eight-game win streak, has gone Over all four times they’ve been an underdog this year. 

Kentucky won’t shoot as well as they did against Tennessee. But they will still score 75 or more points and that’s all we need. Take the OVER

Minnesota played last night, so this is a good chance for Atlanta to pick up a much needed victory. The Hawks are 18-25 right now. This is a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

The Timberwolves haven’t exactly been “playoff regulars,” so they’ve got to be thrilled to be seventh in the West. They picked up a win last night, 112-110, but did not cover as three-point favorites. I picked up a win with the Over.

Minnesota is still a “young” team, so I see them as being prone to a “letdown” this evening. The last time they were off a win and playing with no rest, they scored 88 points and lost to the Knicks. That was at home.

It’s a losing road record for the Timberwolves this season. I can’t stress how desperate the Hawks will be for a win here. They are coming off a win, against Milwaukee, so you know what they’re capable of doing. They won at Minnesota last month. Lay the short number with the HAWKS 

These two fine teams have split their last two games with a very low total of three goals in each case.  That may not be the case tonight.  The Toronto defense is down a pair of players, and Campbell has not settled in after the break, giving up 13 goals in hs last three starts.  Rangers' likely starter Shesterkin has been as hot as ever, allowing only two goals in his last two starts.  The Leafs have a number of players just returning from Covid protocol, and the Rangers are a very good home team.  New York may not have the firepower of the Leafs, but their defense and PK is topnotch.  The Leafs are a surprisingly heavy favorite today.  Shesterkin and the Rangers' defense will be the difference.  Given these odds I am happy to play on the Rangers to win.

Loyola Chicago should be a familiar name to those who follow the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers have made two deep Tourney runs in the last four years, one of them all the way to the Final Four (in 2018). Currently on a nine-game win streak, they are back in the Top 25 as of yesterday (ranked #22). 

Expect an easy win on Tuesday. Evansville is a bad team with a 4-11 record. The Purple Aces hadn’t played in almost a month when it was time for the Missouri Valley Conference portion of the schedule to go into full effect. They’ve lost all three games in January, two by 22 or more.

Loyola is clearly the best Missouri Valley team this year, although they’ve had some close calls. Two of their four league wins have required overtime. But this one is looking like the easiest matchup yet. 

Saturday saw Loyola hold Indiana State to 56 points. Evansville is only averaging 60.5 points this season. So it should be another solid effort at the defensive end from the favorite here.

The past two years have seen Loyola win all four head to head meetings. Three of the wins have been by double digits. Lay the points with LOYOLA CHICAGO

I was “spot on” calling for the Knicks’ game to go Under yesterday. They scored just 87 points in a loss to the Hornets, here at home. They only gave up 97. As I wrote in the analysis, many of the Knicks recent contests have been low-scoring affairs. In the last 12 games, they’ve held the opponent under 100 points. Five of those 12 games have seen them fail to get to 100 themselves.

But a matchup against Minnesota on Tuesday should change all of that. The Timberwolves are one of the higher scoring teams in the NBA. They are putting up 110.1 points per contest and that number grows to 114.1 on the road. Over the last five games, the T’wolves have averaged 125.6 points.

Minny blew out Golden State Sunday to move within a game of .500. But don’t read that much into them holding the Warriors to just 99 points. Neither Steph Curry or Draymond Green played in that game. 

The Knicks are now right at .500 after Monday’s loss. 

When these teams met right before the New Year, it was a 96-88 Knicks victory. But that game saw both sides shoot very poorly, especially at the free throw line where they combined to miss 17 of 36 attempts. I look for the rematch to be a lot higher scoring, so take the OVER

Akron, who is one of the top teams in the MAC, has hit a recent snag. They’ve lost two of three and are just 9-5 on the year. But tonight they host a Western Michigan team that is on a six-game losing streak. Expect this to be an easy cover by the home team.

The Zips lost 67-55 at rival Kent State on Friday. In addition to falling victim to a career night from Kent State’s Sincere Carry, the Zips were terrible at shooting from long range. They made only 4 of 24 three point attempts. 

But for the year, they’ve shot well from distance. At home they are making 37.4% of three-point attempts and that’s a big reason why they are putting up 82.4 points per game at the James A. Rhodes Arena. With Western Michigan giving up 86.1 points per game on the road this year, tonight should be an excellent showing at the offensive end from Akron.

WMU has scored more than 64 points only once during its six-game losing streak. They never seem to do well in games where the total is 130 to 139.5. They are 5-17 ATS in such games the last three seasons, 0-6 when on the road.

This is a game Akron should win by 20 or more points. Western Michigan is getting outscored by 21.1 points per game on the road. Lay the points with AKRON

Save for one bad game at Madison Square Garden last week, the Mavericks have been tearing it up of late. They come into Monday having won eight of their last nine games. On Friday, they ended the long win streak of the Memphis Grizzlies with an emphatic 112-85 beatdown. That was followed by another double digit victory, 108-92 over Orlando on Saturday.

This should be a third straight double digit victory for the Mavs as they host Oklahoma City on Monday. While the Thunder have been more competitive than expected so far, they don’t win games. Saturday marked their eighth loss in the last 10 tries. They blew a double digit lead at home against Cleveland and ended up going down 107-102.

The key to the Mavericks’ recent success has been their defense. They’ve led the league in defensive efficiency over the last three weeks - by a rather wide margin, in fact. Oklahoma City, despite averaging 116 points in its last three games, is still last in the league at 100.8 points per game.

This is the third meeting of the year between these teams. In the first two, both of which were played in OKC, the Mavs held the Thunder to 84 and 86 points. Should be another easy win here. Lay the points. 

The Cardinals have been on a downward trend, losing 4 of 5, scoring less points and allowing considerably more over the last month. There is no defensive category where they have shown anything but a slide. Things are not much better on offense with far less passing yards, and far poorer results in the red zone. That is a lot of ship to right coming into the wildcard weekend. They are a good road team and beat the Cowboys on the road, but lets not forget that they lost badly on the road to the Lions.

The Rams have won 4 of 5, losing narrowly to the 49ers last week. Well, don’t they always lose to the 49ers? Much has been and should be made of Stafford’s ability to turn the ball over. He faced formidable pressure from the 49ers’ defense and was sacked 5 times. The Cardinals will not exert that kind of pressure on Stafford this week. The Rams’ defense are tough on the run, and very good at getting to the quarterback. They give up yards against the pass, but not necessarily points. They are much better in the red zone of late. They beat Arizona by 7 last time out. I don’t think it will be much different this week.

The Rams have the stars who can excel, Stafford being one of them. This is a critical game for some very big Rams reputations. I am wagering for LA to step up here. Take the Rams to win and cover.

Over the weekend, SF Austin suffered its second loss in the last three games. It was 49-41 at Sam Houston State. As you can tell from that score, it was a bad shooting night. The Lumberjacks made only 26.3% of their field goal attempts and were 3 of 25 from three-point range.

It was also the third straight ATS loss for the Lumberjacks, who are trying to make their presence felt in the WAC, their new conference home after a move from the Southland. 

Tonight should be a “get-well” game for SF Austin as they face one of their old Southland rivals, Lamar, who is having an absolutely terrible season. Lamar comes into Monday with a 2-14 SU record. Both wins were against non-DI opponents.

The Cardinals just got beat by Chicago State, who is a horrible team, on Saturday. They were actually eight-point favorites in that game, playing at home. On the road, Lamar hasn’t won a game. They are 0-10. 

While Lamar has been somewhat competitive this year, that won’t be the case tonight. SF Austin should be in a foul mood and ready to dominate one of the easiest opponents on their remaining schedule. LAY THE POINTS

Two teams fighting for position in the Eastern Conference meet in this early Monday tip. Charlotte is 7th with a 23-20 record and New York is 10th with a 22-21 record. As you can tell, it’s a tightly packed race for those play-in spots to the playoff tournament.

Charlotte had a four-game win streak snapped on Friday with a bad loss to Orlando. They were 11-point favorites in the 116-109 setback. I expect the Hornets to tighten up their defense here, after allowing the Magic to shoot 51% from the field.

The Under is 4-0 this season when the Hornets play on exactly two days' rest. 

The Knicks are also coming off a relatively high scoring game, only they won, 117-108 at Atlanta. It was the third straight win for the Knicks and they’ve covered the spread in all three games. High-scoring games have been uncommon for them, however. Their last five games have averaged just 202.6 total points.

Saturday’s win over the Hawks was NY’s highest scoring game since before Christmas. Going back to X-Mas, the Knicks have held 8 of 11 opponents below 100 points. Take the UNDER here.

For the first time this season, Purdue is an underdog. That’s because Monday’s opponent, Illinois, is no joke. The Fighting Illini deserve to be ranked much higher than #25. No need to spend much time singing the Illini’s praises to Boilermaker fans though. Illinois has won the last three meetings by an average of 17 points. 

But Purdue is also very good and I don’t want to fade them either. What I will do though is take the Over. Neither team has much trouble scoring and you should expect plenty of points in this early Monday tipoff.

Purdue is putting up 85.6 points per contest. That’s sixth most in the country. They scored 92 on Friday in a blowout win over Nebraska. It was the fourth straight Boilermakers’ game to go Over the total.

Illinois is averaging 79.7 points this season, 83.8 when at home. Their last game, a 68-53 win over Michigan, was pretty low-scoring. But that was after putting up at least 76 points in 10 straight games.

My view is that Purdue is the better team, but Illinois is undoubtedly hotter. Both teams can obviously score. The Over is 10-2 in the Boilermakers’ previous 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the OVER here.

The Chiefs crushed the Steelers just three weeks ago, winning by 26. The Steelers squeaked into the playoffs by the slimmest of margins, and all the talk about no pressure on the Steelers in this game doesn’t hide the fact that the Chiefs are a much better team with a recent history of playoff success.

The Steelers’ claim to fame is their pass defense, in particular Qb pressure, pass yards allowed and yards per attempt. That said, it is odd that against the good pass-first offenses they have played (Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers and Vikings) , all were losses and some by wide margins. As far as sacks go, the Chiefs are third in the league in protecting their QB, allowing just 1 sack per week over their last three games. TJ Watt was held in control in their last meeting, a rare occasion.

The Steelers are dead last against the run. Even though the Chiefs are best known as a pass-first offense, they have far greater balance this year and can run the ball very effectively. Mahomes will do whatever is needed under the circumstances to win a game. He is still one of the best rushing Qbs in the business.

The Chiefs’ defense gives up the eighth least points allowed, which is surprising as there is no one area in which they excel. They are healthy now, and we need to be reminded that they have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to under two Tds. The Steelers just don’t put many points on the board. With a very poor run game and a very average pass offense, I don’t expect them to surprise anyone on Sunday. Take the Chiefs to win and cover.

Utah, who has slipped to fourth in the West, could really use a win here. They’ve lost four in a row despite being favored in their last three games. 

Even more surprising is that all four Jazz losses have been by double digits. This has been their worst stretch of the season.

But tonight sees them returning to the site of their last win, which came on January 5th, 115-109 in Denver. At that moment in time, the Jazz had won eight of nine.

The Nuggets are in the second game of a back to back and playing their third game in four days. The last two have gone well for them. Not only did the blowout Portland 140-108, they did the same to the Lakers last night, winning 133-96. 

But it’s probably not possible for Denver to match last night’s shooting where they were 23 of 40 from three. Depth looks like it will be an issue tonight with JaMychal Green entering health and safety protocol and Austin Rivers out with a non-COVID illness. Utah is too good to continue losing like this. I still think they’re one of the top teams. Lay the points!

Iowa is a team that can score. They are fourth in the country in scoring at 86.5 points per game. But they don’t defend particularly well. That’s evident by the fact that they are 160th in adjusted defensive efficiency and also them giving up an average of 77.2 points per game when they play on the road.

That defensive efficiency rating of theirs really sticks out. It’s the poorest mark - by far - of any team in the KenPom top 40. So I really like the idea of grabbing the points here, with Iowa being on the road.

The Hawkeyes were a bit lucky to pull one out in Iowa City earlier this week. They rallied from a 48-41 halftime deficit to beat Indiana 83-74. But again, that was a home game. Let it be known that Iowa’s last three true road games all ended up as losses.

Minnesota comes into Sunday as a desperate team. They’re on a three-game losing streak after falling in the final second to Michigan State on Wednesday. It was still a valiant effort as double digit underdogs against a team ranked 10th in the country.

Bottom line: I just think that the Golden Gophers will score enough to stay within a generous number at home. Grab the points.

The Eagles are not going to be scared off their run-focused game plan easily; the Buccaneers’ powerful run defense is not quite what it was last year or even earlier in the season. The Bucs haven’t faced a quarterback who runs as well as Hurts does lately, and the Eagles have the best run offense in the league, with two solid RBs who will figure into the picture. Still, Tampa does not give points up easily. Fifth in the league in points allowed, they do allow passing yards, but not so many points, and do pressure the opposing quarterback very well.

The Eagles have been successful at limiting pass and run yards this year, but between the Eagles’ lack of QB pressure, and the Buc’s very good O-line, Brady will likely be a force to be reckoned with. Throwing into the wind and the rain will likely have some impact on Brady’s game, and the Buccaneers are far less effective moving the football on the ground.

I like the total in this game. The Buccaneers have some key players who are still banged up. The weather conditions suggest a slower than usual game, and possibly more of a running game from the Buccaneers. The Eagles may find points hard to come by on Saturday, and may have a little success limiting Brady. The total seems high in this situation. Take the Eagles and Buccaneers to go under on Sunday.

The Lakers and Nuggets are both fighting to get into the top six in the Western Conference. The Nuggets currently occupy sixth position, but are just a game up on Saturday’s opponent. The home team looked very good its last time out as they blasted an undermanned Portland team 140-108.

Los Angeles hasn’t been as lucky of late. The Lakers have lost two in a row and in doing so have given up 125 and 127 points. They let Memphis and Sacramento shoot 54.5% from the field.

With Anthony Davis and others out, the scoring burden has fallen on LeBron James. But James has been up to the task, even playing center at times, and he’s scored 30 or more in 11 of the last 12 games.

Given how the Lakers have played defense recently and how the Nuggets shot in their last game, there’s no doubt in my mind that the home team will score a bunch tonight. The Lakers should follow suit though. The Over is 4-0 their last four games and 5-0 the last five times they’ve been off a loss. The Over is also 4-0 the last four Lakers-Nuggets matchups in Denver. Take the OVER

The Patriots face the Bills for a chance to move on, but looking carefully at the two teams’ last month’s performances, it seems unlikely that they can or will win this game. There has been a significant regression in the Patriots’ defensive performance, especially in the run, an aspect of the game that will likely figure prominently on a very cold day in Buffalo. Points allowed are way up, their ability to pressure QBs has declined, and their red zone defense has declined. This against a Bills team with the third highest points for. For a generally pass-first offense, the Bills have now passed the Patriots in rushing yards and rush yards/attempt. Allen has had excellent protection three weeks in a row.

As much as the Patriots’ defense has declined, the Bills’ defensive effort has soared. First in points allowed, dominant in all pass defense categories, they have also shown huge improvement in rush defense.

The Bills are very healthy; not so the Patriots, with numerous starters banged up. The Bills are on a roll and Allen is in good form. There are some questions around Patriots’ QB Jones lately, and the rookie QB faces a very tough defense in cold play-off conditions. Belichick or no, the Bills will win and cover..

#1 Baylor looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday. I expect this game to go quite well for the top ranked Bears. 

They led Texas Tech by 15 in the first half before suffering their first loss since last year’s Big 12 Tournament. The reigning National Champs had won 22 in a row by an average of 26 points.

Oklahoma State is also off a loss to Texas Tech, though theirs came in more lopsided fashion. It was 78-58 down in Lubbock on Thursday. This is a trying season for the Cowboys, who are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor has had two more days to prepare for this game, an advantage they don’t really need but will gladly take. This is OSU’s third road game in five days and they have failed to cover eight of their last nine overall.

Look for the best team in the country to come out with some real energy after suffering their first loss of the year. That should result in a big win. Play on BAYLOR

The Raiders, off an inspiring win last week, squeaked into the playoffs, and now face a rested Bengals team. The pass-first Bengals offense comes in with Burrow at his peak, some solid receiving options, and a top 5 running back, a dual threat, who they probably under-use on the ground. Burrow is accurate, explosive and does not turn the ball over. The only issue with Burrow is the lack of protection he gets. The Bengals defense is middle of the pack. Their strengths are against the run, they give up yards but not necessarily points against the pass, and they can be effective in pressuring the QB. They have a definite advantage in turnovers, both on offense and defense.

The Raiders have presented a much more balanced attack in their last few games and it has been working for them. Carr might be playing second to Burrow, but his stats speak for themselves. The Raiders have relied much more on their running game lately, and have a good running back, also a twin threat, in Jacobs. On defense, the Raiders have given up a ton of points this season, but that has declined outside of last week. They have tightened up against the run, but do struggle against a strong pass-first offense such as the Bengals. The Raiders’ red zone defense is also an issue.

The Bengals beat the Raiders handily on the road earlier in the season. Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in a very long time, so they are due. The Raiders did not have the benefit of a week off, and are on the road. I am wagering that the Bengals, a real offensive powerhouse in top form, to outscore the Raiders. Cincinnati to win and cover.

There’s a top five in the SEC pecking order with Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee and Alabama all vying for conference supremacy. Two of the five teams go head to head on Saturday as #18 Kentucky faces #22 Tennessee in Lexington Saturday afternoon.

UT has split its first four SEC games, winning twice at home and losing both times on the road. That pattern doesn’t bode well for today. The teams the Volunteers lost at: were Alabama and LSU. Kentucky is 11-0 at Rupp Arena so far, winning by 27.5 points per contest.

The Wildcats’ only SEC loss came at LSU. They never trailed Tuesday in a 78-66 win over Vanderbilt. In that game, Oscar Tshiebwe turned in his 12th double double of the season and a career-high 30 points. UK led by as many as 28 before taking their foot off the gas near the end of the game.

Kentucky seems to have a major edge at the offensive end where they are eighth in the country in adjusted efficiency. Tennessee is only 58th. Versus teams that average 77 or more points per game, the Vols are 5-14 ATS the previous three seasons. 

Because they’re playing at home, Kentucky has a significant advantage. Lay the points here. 

San Antonio is desperate for a win here. They lost at home to the Rockets on Wednesday. That was their fourth straight loss as well as their eighth in the last nine games. The only win was by the slightest of margins (99-97) over Boston.

Cleveland is no longer a pushover as it proved again on Wednesday when they went to Utah and smashed the Jazz 111-91, despite being a five-point underdog. The Cavs shockingly own the top point differential in the Eastern Conference.

But their ATS record has slipped a bit this month. They’ve covered just two of the last nine games, Wednesday being one of them. Oddsmakers are going to start catching up with the Cavaliers and this is an instance where I don’t think they should be favored. 

Two starters could be returning tonight for the Spurs. That would greatly aid the likes of Dejounte Murray, who had a triple double in the last game. Murray was backed up by six teammates scoring 11 or more points. I really don’t know how San Antonio managed to lose to Houston. They were up nine in the third quarter.

An interesting tidbit on the Spurs: their home record is 7-11, but they have scored more points than they’ve allowed in those games. They average 115.6 PPG here. Take SAN ANTONIO

Virginia Commonwealth and St. Bonaventure may have similar straight up records (10-3 and 9-4 respectively), but it’s a much different story at the pay window as VCU is 10-4 ATS (7-0 on the road) while the Bonnies are 3-8 ATS and have failed to cover seven in a row. But what I’m looking for Friday is a reversal of fortunes.

The Bonnies had not played in almost a month (four cancellations/postponements) when they took the floor against LaSalle on Tuesday. They won 80-76, but could not cover the 9.5 point spread on the road as the game went to overtime. I’m going to “excuse” that close call, based on how long it had been since the Bonnies had last played. With a game under their belt and playing at home, expect a much better effort from the Bonnies tonight.

VCU has won seven straight overall and is 3-0 in January. The Rams had one close call, a 53-52 win at Dayton, but other than that they’ve been winning rather comfortably. 

The key to tonight’s game is that I do not think VCU can match its scoring from the last two games when it put up 85 on LaSalle and 84 on George Washington. The Rams only average 63.4 points per game and are 255th in offensive efficiency. 

St. Bonaventure doesn’t foul all that often and VCU isn’t very good at converting free throws all that often. The road team also has a high turnover rate. Assuming the Bonnies can convert those TO’s into points, they should easily cover this number as VCU won’t be doing much scoring of their own. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE

Philadelphia has already gone Under in each of its last three games. But they did allow Charlotte to shoot 51.7% Wednesday in a loss. I don’t think they’ll let Boston shoot that well. The Celtics are off a game where they shot 51.3%, so they are probably due for a downturn anway.

That 51.3% shooting performance led to a 119-110 win in Indiana for the Celtics on Wednesday. Boston had three 30+ point quarters, made 18 three-pointers and went 21 of 25 from the line. Tatum and Brown combined for 67 points. No way the team will be that prolific again here. 

But Boston can rely on its defense, which has held the last five opponents to just 96 points per game. You’d have to go back to before Christmas to find the last time a team shot 50% or better against the Celtics.

Before facing Charlotte, the Sixers hadn’t let an opponent hit 50% or better since December 13th! The Under is 7-1 in Philly’s last eight home games. They only scored 98 points on Wednesday, despite getting 31 from Joel Embiid. 

Getting back to what I was saying earlier about Boston not being able to match its prolific shooting from the last game. They are 33-15-1 Under following a straight-up win by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER here.

USC just suffered its first loss and is now laying a big number against Oregon State. I’m all about taking the points in this matchup.

It was only 48 hours ago that the Trojans suffered that first loss, on the road, to Stanford. Favored by 6.5 points, they lost 75-69. It was a poor shooting effort, which may have had something to do with the game being moved. Originally, it was going to be played Saturday. But COVID rearranged the schedule.

Now the Trojans will play three conference games in a week. Up next is Oregon State, who was also an Elite Eight team last season. The Beavers are not having as good of a 2021-22 season; they are just 3-11 and coming off a last second loss to Oregon. But they have covered three in a row.

Attendance will be limited for tonight’s game. That minimizes any home court advantage for USC.

The underdog keeps this one close! Take the points with Oregon State. 

UCLA is 10-1 and ranked third in the country. But they are 0-2 ATS since returning to the court from a near month-long layoff. Last week the Bruins did not cover against Long Beach State or against California. Considering Cal only made 1 of its 14 three-point attempts, it’s rather shocking UCLA couldn’t win that game by more than eight points. 

Oregon is a much tougher opponent than Cal (or Long Beach State). The Ducks and Bruins met just once last year. The Ducks won 82-74. The teams played just once in the 2019-20 season. The Ducks won that one as well, 96-75. 

Both games took place in Eugene. But the Ducks did just win on the road Monday, despite allowing 53.4% shooting. They beat Oregon State 78-76. It was their third straight win. They’ve got confidence entering this game.

UCLA has played only four games since the start of December. That kind of inactivity leaves them prone to a potential upset here. Grab the points with OREGON

After thrashing the Bulls 138-112 last night, Brooklyn is back at home Thursday to play Oklahoma City. That means no Kyrie Irving (unvaccinated) but it’s not like the Thunder should provide a ton of resistance here. My view is that after seven straight ATS losses (going into last night), the Nets are due to pick up steam.

Due to the blowout nature of last night’s game, Steve Nash was able to give some much needed rest to key players. Kevin Durant played just 30 minutes while James Harden played 33. That duo still found a way to combine for 52 points against the Bulls. We should get similar production, if not more, with them on the court for a longer amount of time tonight.

Oklahoma City has lost five in a row and hasn’t been able to even score 100 points in five of its last seven games. They are last in the league in scoring, a big problem when getting ready to face Brooklyn, who is one of the top scoring teams.

Back in November, the Nets beat the Thunder 120-96 and they were nine point ROAD favorites. It wasn’t the second night of a back to back, but there was no Irving.

The real sad thing for the Thunder is that they turned in one of their better offensive games on Tuesday and still lost. I don’t think they’re going to score a ton of points tonight, so lay the points with BROOKLYN.

Not sure Wisconsin deserves to be ranked #13 in the country at this moment. Granted, the Badgers are 13-2 and on a five-game win streak. But they are the third highest ranked Big 10 team right now. Does anyone really believe this is the third best team in this ultra-strong conference.

Four of the wins during Wisconsin’s current streak have been by five points or fewer. They did go to Purdue and pull an upset, give the Badgers credit for that. But some of the other close calls were against Nicholls State and Illinois State.

This week saw the Badgers move up 10 spots in the Top 25. I’m really salivating at this opportunity to fade them.

It helps that they are facing Ohio State, who won the first meeting 73-55 in Columbus. Wisconsin was dominated on the glass in that game and was held to 33.8% from the floor, including 6 of 26 from behind the arc. 

The Buckeyes have lost only one time in their last seven games. They beat Duke earlier this year. I get the revenge angle being in play, but I think Ohio State is better. So TAKE THE POINTS.

Middle Tennessee finds itself on a three-game losing streak. But the Blue Raiders are 10-2 against the spread in 2021-22. There’s only two teams with a higher percentage of covering games. MT is 5-0 ATS when favored. So this is precisely the kind of spot where you want to back them.

The opponent is Florida Atlantic, who is 7-6 and coming off a win at Marshall. But it’s been an up and down year for the Owls. Before going to Marshall and pulling the upset, FAU was an upset victim at the hands of High Point, which was also a road game.

The three straight losses that MT has suffered all came on the road. They are 6-0 at home, winning by almost 23 points per contest.

FAU had not won on the road prior to their last game. They are just 7-22 in the last 29 games outside of Boca Raton. They’d been off for almost three weeks when they won at Marshall.

Laying a small number with MT, at home, just makes sense here. 

Both Commonwealth teams are off losses. Virginia had no answers for North Carolina’s Armando Bacot in a 74-58 loss on Saturday. Virginia Tech has lost two in a row and six of nine while dealing with COVID. 

Several factors have me on Virginia here. The Cavaliers are at home, after playing three straight on the road. They are still a top 25 team (barely) and only giving up 58.8 points per contest. 

Virginia Tech gives up a similar number of points per game, however that number has started to rise after losses to Duke and NC State. The latter loss occurred after a two-week break induced by COVID and the Hokies seemed to falter down the stretch. Another problem for the Hokies is they’ve managed to top 65 points just two times in the last nine games.

You don’t see Virginia as this small of a home favorite all that often. They are better than how they’ve performed ATS at home so far. 

Virginia Tech has been an underdog two times previous to this. They lost both games. They are 5-12 SU the last 17 tries as a dog. Play on VIRGINIA

The Under has now hit in six of Dallas’ last seven games. The lone exception came when they hung 130 points on a lousy Houston team. The last six games have all been wins for the Mavericks and in five of them, they have held their opponent below 100 points.

The Under has hit in seven of New York’s last nine games. One of the two exceptions came in a miracle comeback over Boston. In all seven Unders, the Knicks were able to hold their opponents below 100 points. 

So we’ve got two teams that are consistently doing something you don’t see all that often in the modern NBA - hold the opposition to double digits.

Furthermore, you’ve got the Knicks often struggling to score 100 themselves. Four times in the last eight games, they have scored 96 points or less. 

These recent defensive efforts - from both teams - are not new. Both rank in the top five in scoring defense for the season. So take the UNDER here. 

The Penguins have played well on the road and are one loss away from a very lengthy win streak.  They have very solid  defense and a terrific starting goaltender in Jarry, but just lost their hottest scorer since the break to covid. The Ducks struggle to score on the top tier teams, but are very good at home.  The last meeting of these two teams ended 1-0, and they have a history of other low totals.  While low-scoring games haven't been common in the new year, here is a situation where it just might happen.  Take the Penguins and Ducks to go under.

These are two of the five teams that believe they can win a SEC Championship this season. Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee are the others. Auburn is now being projected as a 1-seed by Joe Lunardi, but I’m not convinced they’re going to end up in that lofty position. Sell the Tigers here in what will be a very tough environment.

The mood in Tuscaloosa figures to be a bit “dour” as the football team just lost the National Championship Game last night. Also, the basketball team lost at Missouri on Saturday, as a 14-point favorite. Off that kind of loss, the Crimson Tide should come out motivated here, looking to raise the spirits of those on campus. 

Alabama has not lost at home. They are 7-0 here this season and have won 10 of the last 12 times they’ve hosted Auburn. The Tide have also not lost back to back games this season.

Previous wins over Houston and Gonzaga show Bama can beat anyone. Auburn hasn’t faced many strong teams during their 11-game win streak, save for LSU and that was a home game. 

Road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 have seen the Tigers go just 2-11 ATS. Play on ALABAMA.

Toronto’s long stretch of Overs (had hit 10 in a row) finally came to an end on Sunday. Their game vs. New Orleans ended up 105-101, coming nowhere close to the 221-point total. The Raptors were a bit lucky to win that one as they trailed by three with three minutes to go in what was a back and forth game. 

But at the end of the day, the Raptors did win. The Over streak may have ended, but of greater significance to them was that it was their seventh straight win. This streak has catapulted them to seventh in the East.

It will be a tough game here vs. Phoenix, who is off a shocking 23-point loss to a Miami team that was without several players. The Suns don’t lose often - just six times in the last 35 games - so the Raptors are in for a tough one on Tuesday.

Look for the Suns to tighten the screws defensively after allowing 123 points in their last game. That matched their most allowed in any game since October. Over the full season, teams only score 105 PPG on Phoenix.

I expect to see some more Unders out of Toronto games in the near future, this one included. Of the ten straight that went Over, only one game had a higher O/U line than this one does. Play UNDER

Though Oklahoma City is the lowest scoring team in the league, a matchup with Washington should lead to more points than usual. The Wizards don’t defend particularly well.

In the last game that they played, the Wizards held the Magic to 100 points and 39.6% shooting. But that is atypical. The previous four games saw the Wiz allow 120, 121, 114 and 130 points. The Thunder are long overdue to hot night shooting as it’s been seven straight games with a field goal percentage no higher than 43.2. 

One player to watch from the Thunder is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has only made 5 of his last 24 three-point attempts. Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting a career-low from three this season, but I’m banking on him having a bit of a breakout performance tonight.

The problem for Oklahoma City in this game is that it is highly unlikely they will hold Washington to a similar shooting percentage as they did Denver on Sunday. They kept the Nuggets under 100 points as a result of 41.6% shooting, but remember the game before that Minnesota shot 55% against OKC. 

The Wizards are also FINALLY getting back Rui Hachimura, who should help improve the team’s woeful shooting from the last game where they made only 40%.  The bottom line is both these teams are going to shoot better than they did in their last games. So take the OVER.

Neither SEC team had much difficulty winning on New Year’s Eve. Alabama beat Cincinnati 27-6 in one semifinal. Georgia beat Michigan 34-11 in the second semifinal. Now it’s a rematch of the SEC Championship Game, only this time a much bigger prize is on the line - the National Championship.

Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, 41-24 as a six-point underdog. The Crimson Tide are again underdogs here, although the line is obviously shorter. But it’s hard for me to shake what happened back on December 4th. I expect the Tide to win again here and give Nick Saban his seventh National Championship since coming to Tuscaloosa (and third in the past five years). 

Bama’s offense is simply way better than any other that Georgia has faced this year. The Tide account for nearly one-third of the points allowed by the Bulldogs’ defense this season. 

The SEC Championship is the only time Alabama has been an underdog in many, many years. It’s a little surprising that the oddsmakers don’t have them favored for this rematch. They have dominated Georgia, winning the previous seven matchups. The last time Bama lost to Georgia was Saban’s first season here, which was 2007, the last season where the Tide weren’t ranked #1 at some point. 

Georgia has not covered the spread in back-to-back games since starting the year out at 5-1 ATS. Alabama is clearly a “psychological hurdle” for them and one they are unlikely to clear on the 10th. Take the points with ALABAMA.

The Bucks and Hornets just played on Saturday and surprisingly it was Charlotte coming out ahead 114-106 as a one-point home favorite. Milwaukee was a bit short-handed for that one. Two of the three players that were out because of COVID-19 could return to the lineup tonight. Regardless if they do or not, I like this rematch to be a lot higher scoring than Saturday.

The Bucks got 43 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo on Saturday, but that wasn’t enough as the rest of the team scored just 63 and was 24 of 70 from the field. That’s just 34%, a truly horrible number and something you should expect they’ll improve upon for tonight.

Milwaukee puts up 112.1 points per contest. Expect them to best that season average here as Charlotte has the worst scoring defense in the East at 116.3 points allowed per game.

But the Hornets can score with the best of them. They average 115.5 points per contest, making them one of two teams to average more than the Bucks. It’s a little surprising to see the Hornets are “just” 20-13 Over on the year. Then again, this is going to be the 14th time that one of their games has a total that’s higher than 230.

The last game, with Milwaukee shooting so poorly, saw only 220 points scored. But the first time the teams met this year, there were a combined 252 points scored. Look for something along those lines in the rubber match and take the OVER.

After losing three straight games, each time as a favorite, Campbell finds itself as a slight underdog to Winthrop on Monday. Winthrop, who has not played since 12/21, has dominated this Big South rivalry, taking the last seven meetings. They’ve lost their last two games, so motivation will be high for both teams.

Though Campbell is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and Winthrop is 0-5 ATS as a favorite, I am backing the chalk in this one. This is for a number of reasons. One is where the game is being played. Winthrop has won all three previous home games this year while averaging 85 points. 

Campbell’s last win over a Division I foe took place all the way back on November 27th. They defeated Stetson by just two points. 

Though Campbell is perfect against the spread when getting points, they were underdogs of 7.5 or more in all three games. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Fighting Camels are 1-5 ATS in their last six. Last Wednesday was their first game since 12/22 and they shot just 40% overall and 16.7% from behind the arc.

Winthrop obviously has had Campbell’s number in the past. These teams play very different brands of basketball. Winthrop likes to get out and run while Campbell plays slow. The problem for the Camels is they only average 61.7 points per contest on the road. As a small underdog, that’s not nearly enough to cover against Winthrop on the road. Lay the points with WINTHROP

Golden State will finally get Klay Thompson back on Sunday. It’ll be a familiar foe Thompson and the Warriors are up against. Cleveland is the team they played in four consecutive NBA Finals (2015-18) and they won three of them.

Klay hasn't played a single minute since landing awkwardly on his leg in the 2019 NBA Finals. After that, he then tore his Achilles in November of 2020. That's now 900+ days of being sidelined. 

Over the course of his career, Thompson is shooting an extraordinary 41.9% from deep. He's also accomplished one of the most incredible feats in NBA History. 37pts on 13/13 shooting in a SINGLE QUARTER. I mean that's a great game for most people. He went on to score 52 in the game. Also, Klay once dropped 43 pts while taking only 4 dribbles. Some things that this man has done are just out of this world. 

Cleveland has been a major surprise this season, which is emphasized by them having the NBA’s best against the spread record. But I think the oddsmakers are going to catch up with the Cavs over these next couple months. While this is obviously a big spread, it really says something about how oddsmakers’ perceive the Cavs compared to one of the top teams in the league.

Thompson’s return couldn’t have come at a better time as the Warriors have lost two in a row for the first time this season. Steph Curry and Draymond Green missed the last game, a 101-96 loss in New Orleans, but they are both listed as probable to join Thompson on the court Sunday. Lay the points with GOLDEN STATE

This “win or done” matchup features two very good quarterbacks and a pair of often unimpressive offenses. The Raiders have been tough to score on lately. Their pass defense has been surprisingly good in their last three games, but they haven’t faced a strong pass-first offense since the Chiefs, who badly mauled them. The Chargers, as good as their offense has been, give up a ton of points, and often to unlikely teams (41 points to Houston). They also struggled against the Chiefs. Both these teams defend poorly in the red zone.

Herbert is the wonder boy these days but he is still relatively inexperienced. It will be interesting to see how he plays in a the Raiders’ loud and hostile stadium in playoff-like conditions. Carr is very much the veteran and at home.

How is this one going to play out? I think Carr and the Raiders will put up points against a weak and regressing Chargers defense. I also think that the Raiders will not be able to handle the ‘Herbert and Ekeler’ duo as easily as their last three opponents. Tough call on the winner, but look for plenty of points. Take the Chargers and Raiders to go over the total.

The Saints are still in the playoff picture and the Falcons aren’t. All the talk of the Falcons as spoilers is nothing like the impetus of still playing for the post season. This and the Saints’ absolutely dominant defense, arguably the best against the run and hugely improved vs the pass of late, will push the Saints past the Falcons.

As much as the Saints defense has improved, the Falcons’ defense has regressed. They are bottom 6 in points allowed, red zone defense, and 32nd and slipping in Qb sacks. They allowed 175 yards rushing over their last three games. Their offense is also trending down, averaging just 16 points scored over their last three games. Ryan has been sacked 37 times, including 5 last week.

Will the Saints cover? They bumped their points-for up to 18 last week. Hill should have plenty of protection, and did get something going with two of his receivers, Kamara and Callaway. He is a big threat to run and the Falcons don’t fare well against a QB who can run. The Saints are healthier than they have been, and have a solid rush attack, possibly including Ingram as well as Kamara. While I am not expecting a blow-out, I am wagering on the Saints to cover as well as win.

Cleveland State is off a one-point win at Robert Morris. That puts the Vikings at 5-0 in Horizon League play. They’ve won three straight and 9 of 10 overall. The only loss in that stretch of games came by five points, in overtime, at Oklahoma State (a team that just beat Texas on Saturday!)

The Vikings’ success in the Horizon League dates back to last season when they shared the regular season crown with Wright State and then won the Conference Tournament. CSU should not have much difficulty defeating in-state rival Youngstown State this afternoon.

YSU is coming off a loss, 71-61 to IPFW, leaving them at 9-6 overall and 2-3 the last five games. One of the Penguins’ two recent victories was against a non-DI team. The other win was by four at last place Robert Morris. The last three losses have been by a total of 55 points.

These two Ohio schools simply are not in the same class. Cleveland State swept the two games last year, winning by an average of 16 points. The Vikings have covered 32 of the last 46 Horizon League games and in addition to that, they are 3-0 ATS the L3 times they’ve been a road favorite of three points or less.

Youngstown State has only covered one of six home games this year and they aren’t getting nearly enough here to buck that trend. Lay the points in this one with CLEVELAND STATE

The  Colts really need this win, and will be all in.  The Jaguars? Who knows? They've played the Colts tough, with an embarrassingly ( for the Colts) long streak of home victories, and with a relatively close game earlier in the season.  There is also their ranking and the #1 draft pick situation to consider. I am sure that the Colts will win this game, but by how much is the question. The Colts don't need to grind the Jaguars into the ground, so playing full out for the full 60 minutes may not be necessary.  The Jaguars don't put up a ton of points, and the Colts' offensive numbers have regressed somewhat.  Where the Colts have improved is that they are tougher to score against.  They are a run-first offense, and it would make no sense to change the game plan for the sake of running up the score.  Of all the options in this game, I am most comfortable with a lower total.  I am wagering the Colts lead comfortably, then shut the Jaguars down.  Take the UNDER today.

The Titans face the Texans in a key game for their play off hopes. They are playing for a bye week, and with their “ultra RB’ Henry near a return, it would be very significant win. The Titans will leave nothing to chance with the memory of a very poor effort against the Texans still strong.

The Titans defense was absolutely formidable last week, holding Miami to 3 points. They are healthier, with all defensive categories markedly improved over the last three weeks. The Texans’ defense is particularly poor vs. the run; last in yards allowed and 2nd last in rush tds allowed. This kind of performance is obviously a very poor match with the Titans’ strengths. Even without Henry, the Titans’ run-first offense has been taking great strides, averaging 163 yards a game in their last three starts.

Tannehill will remember his last game vs Houston as he was sacked 7 times. The Texans don’t generally apply that much pressure. Look for the Tennessee O-line to do a better job of protection, with Tannehill only throwing as needed. Rookie David Mills appears to be settling in with the Texans, but will likely face intense pressure on game day.

I am wary of a wide spreads in week 18, but I think the Titans will be all in until the end on this one. Who knows what kind of effort to expect from the Texans? I am confident that the Titans will win and cover on Sunday.

Orlando and Detroit have the two worst records in the NBA. Orlando is 7-32. Detroit is 7-30. Someone’s gotta win here and I think it will be Detroit. Orlando has lost seven in a row. Though Detroit is coming off consecutive 30 point defeats, both of those were on the road. They’d won two straight prior to those losses.

The last time the Pistons were at home, they beat San Antonio. Then they went out and won in Milwaukee, which was rather shocking. Back in October, they won the first matchup of the year with Orlando, 110-103 as six-point favorites. The line is obviously much shorter this time and that’s why we like it. No way you can take Orlando getting such a short number on the road. 

Having won a couple of games recently and playing at home, the Pistons should be more confident heading into this one. They are on an 11-3 ATS run following an ATS loss. Also giving them confidence is the fact they are 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings with Orlando and 5-1 ATS the last six meetings here in Detroit. Take the PISTONS

The Chiefs meet the Broncos in a very meaningful game for K.C., but not really for Denver.  After limiting opposing teams' offense in the extreme, the Chiefs have given up two high totals in three games, and seen their defensive stats plummet. As much as the Chiefs need a win, this is also their last chance to right the ship on defense before the post season.  The good news is that they face Drew Lock, rather than Burrow or Herbert.

While this is not a really meaningful game for the Broncos other than Lock, it is a home game, so look for some effort.  The Denver defense stumbled last week but has held most teams to under 20 points, or in the case of the Chiefs last time out, 22 points. Their offense has stumbled for more than a week, averaging only 12 points for the last 3 games. 

Both teams appear to be over the worst of covid, touch wood, but the Chiefs are missing their best RB, and the Broncos, their QB and other significant players.  Look for the Chiefs to focus on defense in this game.  Look for a return to the tight defense they showed for much of the year, with the Broncos struggling to put points on the board.  If the Broncos do play all out, they have the potential to slow the Chiefs' potentially explosive offense. I am wagering on the total to go under.

Texas Tech let us down in the game vs. Iowa State, losing 51-47 in what was an ugly performance from both teams. Unfortunately for Red Raiders’ fans, they face an even tougher opponent on Saturday, that being Kansas.

The #6 ranked Jayhawks may not be the favorites in the Big 12 this year (Baylor is), but they remain formidable. Their record is 12-1 and that one loss was by one point, on a buzzer-beater, against Dayton in a Holiday tournament. 

Earlier in the week, KU easily defeated Oklahoma State on the road. It was 74-63 as 6.5 point favorites. The Jayhawks have covered 25 of their last 37 conference games.

Texas Tech’s dreadful shooting in the loss to Iowa State is cause for concern here. The Red Raiders shot 38.8% overall and made only 3 of 17 tries from three. It would be one thing if that were an isolated event. But it was the third time in the last six games where TT did not score 60 points.

Kansas has little difficulty scoring. They average 84.3 points per contest, which is top seven in the country. They scored 73 in the last game despite missing 20 straight shots at one point. Texas Tech, while often good defensively, just can’t compete with this team. Lay the points with KANSAS

more analysis to come

Denver badly needs to win tonight as they’ve lost their last two games. The losing is tied to injuries and COVID-related absences. But Nikola Jokic is still here and he had 26-21-11 the other night. The Nuggets lost that game, but only by six to a very good opponent (Utah).

Facing a “lesser” team tonight, I look for the Nuggets to get back into the win column. They’ve had only one losing streak longer than two games all year.

Sacramento has also dropped two in a row. Recently, they’ve been losing to teams that have been without their superstars. There was a loss to Dallas (who was without Doncic), a loss to the Lakers (who didn’t have LeBron or Davis) and most recently a loss to Atlanta (who was without Young, Collins and Bogdanovic).

Unlike Denver, the Kings don’t have a Jokic that they can count on to help turn things around. 

Defensively, Sacramento really struggles on the road. They give up 117.4 points per game when playing away from home. Lay the points with DENVER here.

Both Xavier and Butler are off losses here. But, for Xavier, that loss was all the way back on 12/21 - to Villanova 71-58. There’s actually been only one cancellation for the Musketeers - that being Tuesday’s scheduled game vs. Georgetown. So it’s not like this long stretch of inactivity was unexpected. Still though, the #22 team in the country is likely to be “rusty” on Friday night.

Butler did play Tuesday and lost 71-56 to a good Seton Hall team. So this marks the second straight home game vs. a Top 25 opponent. The Bulldogs were 6-1 in Hinkle Fieldhouse prior to losing to Seton Hall.

Defensively, there’s nothing wrong with what Butler is doing. At home, they are allowing less than 60 points per contest. 

This will be just the third true road game for Xavier. They did win at Oklahoma State, but as I mentioned before lost at Villanova. The Musketeers were not favored in either of those two previous road tilts. They are here.

Xavier is 0-4 ATS the last four times it has been a road favorite. Take the points with BUTLER here.

The Spurs and 76ers are going in opposite directions right now. The former had lost four in a row before picking up a low-scoring, 99-97 win over Boston. The latter has now won five in a row after winning 116-106 in Orlando 48 hours ago. I anticipate tonight’s clash being relatively low-scoring and am hopping on the Under.

Philadelphia’s win streak has coincided with an uptick in scoring. They’ve averaged 118 points in the five wins. But four of the wins have come on the road. At home, this team is only 7-8 straight up and 11-4 to the Under.

San Antonio is 13-6 Under in road games this season. This will be their fifth straight road game. Even though they did win the last one, we saw them struggle to score with just 99 points. That was with four starters putting up double figures.

Going back to December 27th, the only team that the Spurs have scored more than 105 against was the Pistons. The 76ers have limited the last five opponents to 105.2 PPG on 42.8% shooting. Go with the UNDER in this one.

These are the two best defenses in the NHL, with, not surprisingly, two of the premier goaltenders.  Calgary has had trouble scoring on this road trip, but the Canes haven't.  Calgary is on a back to back, and off a loss.  The total is high, reflecting the number of high scoring games since the break. I like the under today. It should be something of a goaltenders duel, with Marky and Andersen, mano a mano, showing their stuff.

USC is one of three teams still undefeated. They are 12-0 and ranked in the top ten. But it’s been almost three weeks since the Trojans last played a game. I think all the postponements/cancellations lead to a rusty performance tonight against California.

In the time Southern Cal has been out of action, Cal has gotten three games in. They won all three. Overall, they’ve won five straight. The Bears beat Arizona State by 24 on Sunday, a nice warm-up for this game. It was their ninth straight win at home.

The Bears only loss in Berkeley so far was the season opener. They are 8-2 ATS in home games and 8-1 ATS their last nine games, period.

Thus far, Southern Cal has played only three true road games. Two of them were wins by five points or less. The last one was a two-point win at Washington State. This shapes up to be the Trojans’ most difficult game to date.

Cal’s home success is not limited to this year. They are 29-14 ATS L43 home games. Take the points in this one.

The Panthers are 4 games into the new year after the extended break, and have chalked up 4 victories, scoring 24 goals and giving up 10.  And no, this is not the NFL Panthers!  Bobrovsky is a rare netminder who didn't falter after such a long pause.  He stopped 47 of 49 shots against a tough Flames team last time out.  On the flip side, this will be the Stars' first game back, and I am not  expecting them to pick up where they left off two weeks ago.  Holtby will likely go through the usual breaking-in period, and the Stars, 22nd in the league in goals scored, have had trouble putting the puck in the net this season.  Dallas is a very good home team, and the Panthers have struggled on the road, but Florida has also beaten three very good teams lately, and should be much more in the groove.  I don't see the Ducks winning this game.  Take the Panthers. The odds are decidedly favorable.

Golden State finds itself in a real predicament tonight. Steph Curry, already mired in a shooting slump, suffered a quad contusion in last night’s loss to Dallas and almost certainly isn’t going to play tonight as a a result. It was a really poor effort from the Warriors last night as they lost 99-82 to the Mavericks.

Curry was just 5 of 24 on field goal attempts, which included 1 of 9 on three pointers. He finished with 14 points. 

The team was only 5 of 28 on three last night. It is next to impossible to fill Curry’s shoes, especially with Klay Thompson still not back. Were Curry playing here, then I’d say there’s an excellent chance Golden State would bounce back from last night’s shooting slump. But that’s not the case,

After facing last year’s NBA Champs and two of the West’s top three teams, New Orleans is getting a big break here with Curry injured. The Pelicans need to start winning as they are just 13-25 this year.

It’s an opportunity the Pelicans must take advantage of here. They’d won five of six before losing the last three. Leading scorer Brandon Ingram has struggled in back to back games, but should bounce back here. Take the points.

Boston has seen the Under hit in six of its previous eight games. Last night’s game, a 99-97 loss to San Antonio, obviously stayed Under the total. The Celtics attempted only nine free throws in that loss and missed 19 of 28 threes.

Tonight, the Celtics are in New York to face a Knicks team that is on a 5-1 Under run. The Knicks also struggled from long-range in their last game, missing 22 of 28 threes. But they still won, beating Indiana 104-94. There were a lot of free throws attempted in that game (60) and I don’t see that number repeating itself for this game.

Case in point, there were 47 and 50 combined free throws attempted the first two times these teams met this year. Both games did go Over, but one was a 2OT game. 

Boston is shooting only 42.8% its last five games, so they are in a slump. Their last three road games all stayed Under.

New York has averaged only 95.8 points over its past five games. But they’ve also only given up an average of 96.4 points. I’d say this has all the makings of a low-scoring game, so take the UNDER.

Texas Tech is ranked #25 in the country and I believe they are worthy of that ranking. I feel much differently about Iowa State, who checks in ranked #11 in the country. 

The Cyclones just suffered their first loss of the year and it was to #1 Baylor, here at home, 77-72 on New Year’s Day. But just because ISU started the year by winning its first 12 games doesn’t necessarily mean this is one of the best teams in the country.

On the contrary, if you check out the various power ranking systems, you’ll see that Iowa State is not viewed as favorably by the oddsmakers as they are by the pollsters. They’ve been an underdog in five games, covering all five. That’s nice, but unlikely to continue.

The Cyclones finished last year with a 2-22 record! They were 0-18 in the Big 12, the first time a team went winless in this conference since TCU in 2014.

Texas Tech has had Iowa State’s number the last two years. The Red Raiders have won - and covered - all four meetings. All four wins have been by at least 20 points.

Iowa State is a team you’re going to want to start fading. I obviously expect them to lose tonight. Texas Tech is a top 10 team defensively that limits opponents to 31% shooting on threes. Iowa State was 1 of 14 on three point attempts vs. Baylor. Take the points with TEXAS TECH

Although Jarry has been terrific in the net for the Penguins for most of the season, he wasn't at his best before the break and has now been off for 2 weeks+.  Binnington allowed 4 goals in his first game back.  Low scoring affairs have been few and far between in the NHL since the overlong play stoppage. Both these teams can put the puck in the net and proved it in their last games; the Blues scoring 6 and the Penguins 8. The Blues are as healthy as they have been in ages, and have a mean PP going.  The Penguins still have the odd injury but that has not fazed them this season. Whether Jarry is in the net or not, I am still wagering on the over.  Too much firepower here for returning goalies.

Philadelphia scored 133 points its last time out. I don’t see them doing that again here. 

The 76ers shot 52% Monday against Houston, who were without a true center and thus had no answers for Joel Embiid, who went for 31 points and had his third career triple double. Embiid has averaged 36.3 points in his last seven road games. Impressive, but not a number he’ll be able to sustain. 

Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. Only the Pistons and Thunder have scored less. The Magic failed to hit 100 in their last game, losing 102-98 to Chicago. That was the eighth time since Thanksgiving that they were held under triple digits. It’s happened 17 times this season and they’ve lost every time. 

A likely offensive decline from Embiid and Phily, plus the fact Orlando just isn’t very good, has me on the Under in this matchup. The last time these teams met, they combined to score 197 points. The 76ers won 101-96. 

The Under is 22-14 in all Sixers’ games this season. That includes 16-8 when having exactly one day of rest in between games as they do here.

I know things haven’t been pretty for Houston of late with losses piling up and some “insubordination” to boot. The team has lost eight in a row, all by at least nine points. But tonight the Rockets will have a full complement of players and they are taking on a Washington team that doesn’t blow many opponents out.

Going back to mid-November, the Wizards have just one win that came by greater than seven points. It was against a Cleveland team that was severely undermanned because of COVID. Since starting the season 10-3, Washington is six games below .500 and a lot of underlying metrics suggest they are very lucky to be in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings.

Five of the last six games have seen the Wizards give up 117 points or more. They actually own the third worst point differential in the conference! The team did win on Monday, but by only three points over Charlotte.

Out West, you’ll find Houston at the bottom of the standings. This is their second losing streak of eight or more games this season, but remember they also had a seven-game win streak in between. A couple of players were suspended for Monday’s loss to the 76ers. Those players are going to be back in the lineup tonight.

Just think this is too many points for a middling Washington team to be laying against anybody. Take HOUSTON plus the points

VCU has won four in a row while Dayton is just 2-2 in its last four. But this game takes place in Dayton and I think the home team is a bargain as a short favorite.

The Flyers have won four straight at home. That includes wins by 38 and 39 points. They also upset Va Tech here. The last time the team was in action, it defeated Southern U 69-60. 

VCU doesn’t score a whole heck of a lot and they are 0-3 ATS the previous two years as a road underdog of three points or less. The Rams have had their last four games either postponed or cancelled because of COVID-19, so that four-game win streak doesn’t really mean all that much. It’s been three weeks since they last played a game. 

Offensively, VCU is only 272nd in adjusted efficiency. They shoot below 30% on three-point attempts and turn the ball over on nearly one-quarter of their possessions.

Dayton has also had to postpone its last two games. But a key edge they have in this matchup comes on two-point field goals. The Flyers are 12th in the country in FG% inside the three-point line. I say lay the points with DAYTON

We’ve seen a pretty substantial line move here due to the fact LSU lost its QB (transfer portal) and two of its top defensive players (opt outs). The Tigers will also have an interim coach after Ed Oregeron was dismissed in favor of Brian Kelly. But even so, LSU has more talent than Kansas State and I’ll gladly grab the points in the Texas Bowl.

Kansas State is 7-5 but lost its last two games in pretty feeble fashion. They went down 20-10 to Baylor and 22-17 to Texas. The Wildcats are also dealing with turnover on the coaching staff as they’ll have a new offensive coordinator for Tuesday’s game. Also, QB Skyler Thompson suffered a lower leg injury late in the year. Can’t count on him being the same, even if he does decide to play here. 

Kansas State’s best win this year was probably … West Virginia? They won just two games away from home and one of them was by a single point. The other was at Kansas. The offense has averaged less than 300 yards in its last three games.

It will be interesting to see if LSU elects to start Garrett Nussmeier, a decision that would cost the QB his redshirt season. Regardless, I expect the Tigers that do suit up to really play hard as they look to impress the incoming coaching staff. If LSU had its full complement of players, they would win this game in blowout fashion. Even down a few, they should still keep it close at the very worst. Take LSU plus the points

Colorado faces the Blackhawks Tuesday night.  Avs are tops in goals scored, the Blackhawks at the tail end (30th).  The Avs have a potent powerplay against a very average Chicago PK.  The Blackhawks have only two goals to show for their two games since the break.  The Avs carried on right where they left off against a much tougher opponent in the Ducks.  Fleury is expected back in the net, but he has been off for more than two weeks.  Most goaltenders take a game or two at least to get back in playing form.  Chicago was struggling before the break, and has now lost 4 straight, scoring only 6 goals and allowing 18.  I very much like the Avs, but the odds are prohibitive. Not to worry.  Take the Avs to win -1.5.  they are worth the extra goals.

Both these teams have been defying expectations this season. The Grizzlies have gone 15-4 in their last 19 games, which includes a shocking 10-2 record in the 12 games they were without leading scorer Ja Morant. The Cavs have the best ATS record in the NBA right now at 24-11-2 ATS. 

But Cleveland is not close to being 100 percent right now. There are multiple injuries in the backcourt, including a season-ender to PG Ricky Rubio, which could be a crushing blow. Darius Garland could return to the lineup tonight, but he’s been in health and safety protocol for the last week. How effective will he be in his first game back? 

The Cavs did just beat Indiana on Sunday, 108-104. But they did not cover the spread. It was their fourth straight ATS loss, so predictably they are starting to “give some back” at the betting window. Before beating Indiana, they’d lost each of the previous three games straight up. 

Memphis won its fifth straight last night, beating Brooklyn 118-104 as a 6.5 point underdog. Morant, who is back, has scored 30 or more in four straight games. He had 37 when the Grizzlies beat the Cavs 132-121 in the opening game of the season.

The Grizzlies are a better team than the Cavaliers. Not too worried about this being the second night of a back to back for the Grizz as they are hot right now and 9-3 this year when coming off a double digit win. Take MEMPHIS plus the points

7-4 Florida State invades Winston-Salem on Tuesday to take on 11-3 Wake Forest. The hosts have lost two in a row, but both defeats were on the road by single digits. FSU has won its last two games, including a narrow 83-81 win at NC State on New Year’s Day.

Four of FSU’s last six games have been decided by three points or less. So they’re getting used to nail biters. Of the four close calls, the Seminoles have won two and lost two. They are 1-5 ATS in the last six games and their number of points scored and allowed has risen during this time. I think that this game will be a little more low-scoring. 

Now, predicting a low-scoring game may seem perplexing to some as Wake is coming off a 94-82 loss to Miami. But that was a road game. At home, the Demon Deacons are 8-0 and allowing only 64.1 points per contest. When they play host, opponents are shooting just 38.5% for the year. 

Miami shot better than 60% against Wake Forest on Saturday. Also, the Demon Deacons shot 54% themselves. Expect those percentages to come way down here. It’s rare to see both teams shoot that well in a game. Similarly, Florida State had to deal with a 32-point effort from NC State’s Dereon Seabron in its last game. It’s highly unlikely that anyone on Wake Forest is going to turn in that kind of singular effort tonight. 

FSU just missed out on covering its last time out. They are 7-2 Under the previous nine times they’ve been off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER