It's never easy playing the Mile High City for visiting teams, because of the thin air, and I'm betting the Wizards travelling from East to West will find it difficult again tonight vs a Denver team that is playing physical/disciplined  defensive ball early on this season, as was evident  when they held Sacramento to 36.5 percent shooting in a lopsided 96-79 victory last time out. Yes, we all know how talented Washington is, but they have shown a tendency of throwing in clunkers in the past, and dating back to last season have failed to cover in their L/ 5 road games.

Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. DENVER is 18-6 ATS L/24 after 2 or more consecutive unders .

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 1 unit reg selection

The San Antonio Spurs and the Toronto Raptors,   both unbeaten in their early-season schedules  go head to head tonight when they do battle on Monday at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. A lot has been made of the Spurs missing, , star forward Kawhi Leonard and point guard Tony Parker because of injuries, but this is a deep team, with a lot of talent, and have proven they can find multiple ways to beat opponents, including a top tier D,  which proved its metal in a  87-77 win on the road  on Saturday vs the Chicago Bulls. On offense the Spurs , can beat you with one of the NBAs most explosive and talented players , LaMarcus Aldridge, who  scored 28 points and had 10 rebounds to lead San Antonio over the Bulls. Like I said, the Spurs have just to many weapons, and are very diverse, compared to a one way run and gun Raptors side that is easily read by a coach like Popovich. I know the Raptors have  looked good in wins vs Chicago and Philadelphia by a combined 51 points in their first two games, but tonight their playing what I'm betting is a superior team without a key cog , big man center Jonas Valanciunas who was injured last time out and expected to miss this tilt.

Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio

San Antonio beat the Raptors in both meetings last season and have a three-game winning streak against Toronto. The Spurs lead the all-time series  17-4  SU against the Raptors at home and another victory and cover is around the corner.

NBA Underdogs like the Raptors - marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record are 19-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons for a go against  69% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Dallas Mavericks, losers of their first three games and completely humiliated in Houston on Saturday night will now be playing with some pride and a huge chip on their shoulders in this spot, and should see Dennis Smith Jr. back and Devin Harris back after missing time early in the season  . Meanwhile, Golden State I'm betting will be over looking a group that they probably don't respect a great deal. I know the Warriors are a great team, but they have had a recent lackluster ATS history vs losing teams as this trend indicates, especially on the road.

Warriors dating back to last season are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Dallas HC Carlisle is 26-8 ATS  after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half which happened in their last trip to the hardwood a 107-91 beatdown vs the Rockets in Houston.

Play on Dallas to cover 1 unit reg selection

Detroit enters tis tilt with momentum on their sides  as they come off a 111-107 road win vs the New York Knicks on Saturday. The Pistons rallied from a 21-point deficit, outscoring the Knicks 60-43 in the second half. Now they go against a young talented Philadelphia Sixer's group who still cannot find a way to consistently notch victories, losing three straight times to start their campaign, including Saturdays lopsided 128-94 loss to the Raptors. There is a lot of talent in the 76ers lineup, but playing as a group and showing chemistry/flow at the moment seems to be a problem, as their star center Joel Embiid ,  comes in and out of the lineup , because of his need to rest his surgically repaired knee. Tonight I'm betting the Sixers having more problems ,  vs a Motown side that has won and covered 6 of the L/7 meetings in this series.

76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

DETROIT is 12-2 ATS  L/14 in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5, with the average margin victory of the scores coming by 10.5 ppg.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 1 unit reg selection

Last night in Utah Russell Westbrook looked surprisingly below average for the Oklahoma City Thunder in a loss. His energy levels as well as his teammates were very low in the team looked completely out of sync and tired looking. Tonight at home in a matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves I expect he and his team will rebound in a big way. After posting a triple-double in a season-opening victory vs the NY Knicks, Westbrook recorded just six points on 2-of-11 shooting in 36 minutes of shabby play. This type of low level of play by the MVP was only the third time in his 10-year career that he has been held to six or less points while playing at least 30 minutes. Something that stood out to me, is that Westbrook is shooting 40.4 percent from 3-point range in 31 career games against the Timberwolves, which is his highest mark against all but two other NBA sides, which gives me credence in my belief he will bounce back in a big way and play hard with Carmelo Anthony and P George tonight at home in front of their own fans. I know the Wolves are a fine young team, but this is a beatable spread for the Oklahoma City Thunder backers .Meanwhile, the Timberwolves won their home opener the other night in a hard fought battle vs Utah, but it must be noted that from a recent performance betting standpoint that not a good thing as the Timberwolves are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.Timberwolves are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-12 ATS L/35 as a home favorite and is 14-4 ATS L/18 in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.


NBA Home favorites like Oklahoma City - marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games, vs. division opponents are 25-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Suns played a fast back and forth game last night losing to the Lakers 132-130 and are banged  playing mostly without center Alex Len (ankle) ( played last night 21 min), guard Davon Reed (knee) and forward Jared Dudley (toe).  This I expect will effect their tempo and with a need to pay more attention to defense, should partake according to my own estimates in more subdued type of defensive game plan tonight in LA vs a Clippers side that is still trying to acclimate to a lot of new faces and injuries to various players that are still not 100% healed. The roster was completely intact for the season-opening victory vs the Lakers, but Patrick Beverley (knee) and Austin Rivers (glute) had just returned and Danilo Gallinari (sprained left foot), Sam Dekker (strained left oblique), Sindarius Thornwell (sprained right shoulder) and Jamil Wilson (back spasms) returned earlier last week.

Overall team cohesiveness on both sides could easily be an issue this evening, and according to my own numbers the lines-makers have over done this Total to the high side considering the circumstances. It must also be noted that from a NBA historical data base, that Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 like the Suns - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite , are 23-3 under for  a 88% conversion rate for bettors dating back 21 seasons.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Utah is a fine team that I highly respect, but after playing last night in a physically grueling affair in Minnesota losing by 3 points and covering, I just don't believe they have enough left in the tank to deal with what is now In my humble opinion one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NBA, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only are they potent with their attack, they are showing early signs of being equally capable of over powering their  opponents on the defensive end. With that said, I usually rarely lay lumber with a road team these circumstances at this juncture of my wagering campaign warrant such a bet and recommendation to my clients.

Quote: "By playing great defense, especially this early in the season where probably most teams are trying to find their way, it gives you at least a little bit of room where if you don't have a great offensive night or are trying to figure it out offensively, you can really fall back to your defense," Thunder coach Billy Donovan told reporters after the game.

Note: Rodney Hood was carried off the floor by his teammates after suffering an apparent lower-leg injury during the fourth quarter last night vs Minny which puts the Jazz at a distinct disadvantage in this tilt.

UTAH is 7-20 ATS  L/27 off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival and OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-10 ATS   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points  with the average victory coming by 7.6 ppg.

Ok City has won 7 of the L/8 meetings and 3 of the L/4 here in Utah and enter this game in much better shape roster wise than they have in the past.

NBA Favorites like Oklahoma City - in a game involving two teams who had marginal winning records (51% to 60%) last season are 23-3 ATS over the L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors and also NBA Favorites like Oklahoma City - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games, vs. division opponents are 27-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Milwaukee Bucks opened the season with games against Boston and Cleveland, and are pretty acclimated to playing some very tough competition. The Bucks looked pretty ordinary against a Cleveland team that looked to be on a mission last night, losing by a DD, count at home,  but I'm still a big believer in this team. I know their opposition tonight, the Portland Trailblazers have looked explosive so far this season, in their first two games , but this will be the Blazers second consecutive road game in a back to back situation. Yes, I do know that the Bucks are also playing back to back games, but playing them while sleeping at home in your own bed, and playing back to backs , after taking a  red eye flight are two completely different scenarios as far as how rested your team will be. With that said, I expect the Bucks come out in good form tonight and get us the win and cover.

Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee and the Bucks have won and covered the most two recent meetings here in Milwaukee.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Blazers - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are just 36-70 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 66% for bettors.

NBA Favorites like Milwaukee - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 28-8 ATS L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Philadelphia 76ers  off a loss last night will face   the Toronto Raptors this Saturday night.The 76ers,  lost 3 of 4 to the Raptors last season, and have lost  15 of their past 16 games against Toronto, including nine in a row at Air Canada Centre. That and the fact that their over hyped young star is out tonight and expected to rest (Joel Embiid) ,has pushed this line to it's outer limits.  With that said, and in contrarian fashion,  I'm betting we have value taking a talented Sixers group  , who despite of playing last night,   will not be all that tired because of their young legs , and a Raptors side that is no longer as deep as they once were.  With that said, I'm recommending we take the points here with a Philly side that is 7-2 ATS L/9 with no rest vs a Raptors side, that has failed to 6 of their 8 at home.

PHILADELPHIA is 31-18 ATS  L/49 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and have covered 19 of their 28 after a loss of 10 points or less which happened last night in a loss 102-92 loss to the Celtics.

76ers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Atlantic.76ers are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on the Phuladelphia 76ers to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Philadelphia 76ers  off a loss last night will face   the Toronto Raptors this Saturday night.  Now tonight the Sixers are a expected to rest  their young star(Joel Embiid)  and I am betting they will be more conservative in  their approach to this game from  offensive perspective. Their D, failed the young men from Philly last night , after leading Boston for more most of the previous evening and a more concerted effort to be stoppers vs what continues to a free wheeling Toronto group will become of paramount importance in this spot. With that said, and in contrarian fashion,  I'm betting instead of a run and gun shoot out like the linemakers are expecting a more subdued  type of affair will play out and the total combined score will end up on the low side of the Totals spectrum.

 Under is 8-3 in 76ers last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-4 in 76ers last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

PHILADELPHIA is 73-49 L/122 when the total is 210 to 219.5.

Toronto is their L/15 games against a lower tier team with a.250 win % or less  have seen a combined average of 206.6 ppg go on the board.

It must also be noted that from a NBA historical data base, that Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 like the like the 76ers - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite , are 23-3 under for  a 88% conversion rate for bettors dating back 21 seasons.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Utah took out Denver in their opener by a 106-96 count as 2.5 point favorites, while the Timberwolves lost  on the road as an over estimated -1 chalk at the road vs San Antonio by a 107-99 count. I once again believe both teams are being undervalued by the linesmakers, and won't be surprised if the Jazz win this game outright making getting points golden in my betting opinion. There are new  talented faces in the Wolves dressing room,  ie ( Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson, Crawford )and Utah is now a retooled team playing without the services of Gordon Hayward who left via free agency. What remains the same for the Jazz that makes them tough to play against, is a  staunch D that led the NBA in scoring defense last season (96.8 points per game) as was evident in the  opener, as they allowed the Nuggets to 13 fourth-quarter points and forcing 22 turnovers overall. Meanwhile, on the flipside, Minnesota looks to be packed with offensive talent, but here against this type of team that tampers with a teams flow, I'm betting their in trouble , as they continue to build chemistry and try gel as a team. 

MINNESOTA is 13-24 ATS  L/35 ATS as a favorite .The visiting team has won 10 of the past 15 meetings. Dating back to last season  the Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Favorites like Minnesota  - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 1 unit reg selection

Orlando looked good in beating Miami in their opener by a 116-109 count as 3.5 point dogs. What impressed me is their ability to stay calm and get the job done despite of a late Heat comeback attempt/surge.   Meanwhile, Brooklyn looked defensively deficient in their opening loss to the Indiana Pacers as 3.5 dogs by a 140-131 deficit. I'm betting their defensive break down until addressed will end up being their demise again tonight. Add to that  they lost  Jeremy Lin  for the season with a ruptured patella tendon in their opener and you have a  bad news Nets team that just can't get over the hump no matter how many changes they made In the off season.

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Magic have won six of the last seven meetings, but lost a  121-111 decision at Brooklyn last season. I'm betting they come back here with an edge and get us a cover.

Play on Orlando to cover 1 unit reg selection

Both these teams looked offensively explosive in their first games of the season, both sides getting wins . The Blazers scored the biggest margin of victory in NBA history, beating Phoenix 124-76. That was even without  McCollum serving a one-game suspension for coming off the bench during an altercation in a preseason game, as reserve guard Pat Connaughton replaced him admirably and stopped and popped for  a career-high 24 points.  With that said,  one of these teams stood to me as being very smooth and polished , in all aspects of the game, and that was the Portland Blazers. I'm not getting completely down on the Pacers as they were impressive offensively in the opener as well with a 140-131 triumph over the Brooklyn Nets, but their defense was horrendous to say the least and soft to be kind.  It's still early and the competition limited, but from a  head to head to matchup ranking system I use the Blazers have the edge here, even though they are on the road.

The Blazers are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 meetings in this series . Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Portland  - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 35-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA Road favorites vs. the money line like Portland - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 23-2 SU 92% conversion rate over the L/5 seasons.

Play on Portland to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Milwaukee Bucks opened the season in top form, as they defeated last season's top Eastern Conference playoff seed on the road in Boston, despite of not playing a complete game and going cold in the second half. I really like the way this Bucks team has come together over the last few seasons, and  I won't be surprised if they knock off the defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers (8 new players in the lineup) in the Bradley Center on Friday night for their home opener. I actually have the Bucks listed very high on my own power rankings list, and feel that they matchup very well against the Cavaliers current roster.

CLEVELAND is 19-31 ATS  L/50 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 13-26 ATS  L/39 vs. division opponents. Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Central.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the  Cavaliers  - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 34-61 ATS during the L/5 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors. ( Cleveland beat the Celtics 102-99 in their opener, the same teams the Bucks beat in their opener)

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 1 unit reg selection

The new-look Boston Celtics will be primed and motivated to notch their first victory of the season when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers in their home opener on Friday night. The Celtics not only lost their two opening games,  but lost Gordon Hayward to a nasty looking leg injury. Now their suddenly being looked at as non contenders which for now at least is a over reaction considering how early in the season it is. I'm betting Boston finds a way to get wins and will remain competitive especially against young teams like the Sixers who haven't proven anything yet. Meanwhile, the Sixer's  their opponents despite of some promise  remain a inconsistent component,  after beginning the season with a 120-115 loss in Washington on Wednesday night.

BOSTON is 30-18 ATS  L/48  road games .76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games dating back to last season. Celtics have won 7 of the L/8 meetings in this series.

teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Celtics - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after 2 or more consecutive losses are 28-8 ATS over the L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for betting backers.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 1 unit reg selection

Pacific Division inter city rivals go head to head tonight  in the City of Angels. the Clippers have dominated this series  winning 14 of the last 15 meetings, including three of four last season and I'm betting these new look teams will continue a recent tradition of Clipper wins. The Clippers do have a new look, with Chris Paul gone and are now  depending on quality new additions like Patrick Beverley,  the flashy Milos Teodosic, and Danilo Gallinari and the usually solid presence of Blake Griffin & the explosive DeAndre Jordon  to continue the franchises winning ways , via a faster mode of attack that just won't stop til it drops. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a team that depends way to much on  Lonzo and Ingram to carry them and talented new acquisition Brooks Lopez that just does not know how to consistently win as was the case in Brooklyn . Its just to early in these guys careers to be put in a spot to lead a young team. With that said,  I'm willing to make a bet that the Lakers are over matched in this spot. 

Lakers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Pacific.

 Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The Phoenix Suns enter the 2017-18 season  as a team I have had cautiously circled this  year    a a side that could surprise for at least postseason contention. This is a very talented young group with a lot of potential. Meanwhile, Portland continues to be a team, that despite of looking good at the end of last season, after starting slowly , still remains inconsistent despite of a lot of promise. Tonight ,Portland will play the opener without McCollum, who was suspended for the first game of the regular season after running off  the bench  during an altercation between teammate Caleb Swanigan and Suns center Alex Len in a preseason game on Oct. 11 in Phoenix. Needless to say there is some bad blood between these sides at the moment, and that will put the young and hungry Suns on their own home court in  the mood to run and play hard. When a bunch of 20 something year olds with talent, are in the mood to run, you better look out. I know the Blazers are still the superior side, overall, but tonight I'm betting they are going to be the lesser of these foes in the opener against the spread.

Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Phoenix is 4-3 ATS L/7 in this series.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line like the Blazers - first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 8-25 SU for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors dating back 5 seasons.

Play on the Phoenix suns to cover 1 unit reg selection

The spot light is now on a new era in Houston with super star guards James Harden and Chris Paul roaming the floor together in their debut campaign  . The Rockets are a deep team in a chase to end the supremacy of the Warriors in the West and upset them last night in a grueling raod affair by a 122-121 count as 9.5 point dogs.  Now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state I'm betting a more temperate effort from the Rockets here tonight.. Meanwhile, the Kings are young  but very talented   , including top pick De'Aaron Fox, a guard out of Kentucky. Despite of their lack of experience this team can play and I have they pegged in my early season power rankings as a possible play off contender. Look for them to be competitive here in their adrenalin filled opener .

HOUSTON is 15-27 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points dating back to last season and  8-19 ATS L/27 off a road win.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Spurs are now a different team without the services of star forward Kawhi Leonard and veteran star point guard Tony Parker who are both out with injuries, However despite of this I'm betting the Spurs are still a team that must be respected , thanks to a top tier defense, and pass-first offensive attack and one of the NBAs top HCs Gregg Popovich.San Antonio after winning 61 games last season and recording its best defensive rating (103.5) since 2011 and a  111.1 offensive rating will still be a force to reckoned with and the pundits maybe should not get ahead of themselves by automatically assuming that a up-trending Minnesota Wolves team can just march into San Antonio and pull off a upset. Yes, agreed , the Spurs  could still not be at that the top of their game just yet, with new bodies acclimating to an old system,  but I'm betting they are still capable of a win here on opening night especially with the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge on the floor and  the new young blood of  Joffrey Lauvergne, Rudy Gay, Derrick White, and Brandon Paul more than ready to compete. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of their quality roster are still a side, that  has recorded  eight consecutive losing seasons and has missed the playoffs for 13 straight years and should still be looked at as wait see type side.

The Spurs have taken the last 11 tilts ion this series from Minnesota, including seven in a row at the AT&T Center and one more is on tonight's agenda.

Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line like San Antonio - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses, good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a bad team from last year (25% to 40%) are 35-4 SU dating back 21 seasons for a 90% conversion rate.

Play on San Antonio to cover 1 unit reg selection

Memphis enters this season   led by one of the NBA's top inside/outside combinations in point guard Mike Conley and center Marc Gasol and are still a team that must be respected despite of changing up their style of play to a quicker up-tempo game plan as was the case in a preseason game last week against tonight's opposition, the New Orleans Pelicans in a lopsided 142-101 beat down. Tonight I'm betting the Grizzlies dominate again on a short line against a team that depends far to much on the duo of Cousins and Davis. In my opinion. Cousins despite of his extreme talent  never fits into a dressing room, and is once again a guy that does not fit into a team concept and this always will put his team in the position of lacking chemistry. As you can see I'm not a big fan of Alvin Gentry's Pelicans because of this and feel their at a disadvantage here on the road vs a very hard working team. Note: Pelicans were just  11-14 SU  after trading for Cousins last season.

Pelicans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.

NBA Favorites like Memphis - average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games, vs. division opponents are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for their betting backers.

Play on Memphis to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets start their season opener Wednesday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. One was a play off team from last season, and one well was not. Despite of that the team (Nets) that was not is still being given respect here by the lines-makers making them only 5 point dogs vs Indiana on the opening line and still showing value at 3.5. Vegas has a lot of smart minds on the other side of the counter, and their correct I'm betting their upgraded assessments of the Brooklyn Nets a team that I expect will go over their projected win total for this season, thanks in part to some very good off season moves that brought the ultra talented  and  Russell over from the Lakers and added the service of defensive specialist DeMarre Carroll and Alan Crabbe. Meanwhile, the Pacers  are a team with a different flavor this season as they traded George to Oklahoma City for guard Victor Oladipo and forward Domantas Sabonis. Indiana will also have to start the season without Glenn Robinson III, who had surgery on his left ankle , which will put them at a disadvantage.

NBA  team vs the money line like Indiana - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 8+ spread covers in last 10 games, team that had a losing record last season are 41-12 SU for a 775 conversion rate over the L/21 season for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 1 unit reg selection

The Celtics have added the offensive explosiveness of   Kyrie Irving to a strong overall  lineup  with a lot of depth. Irving  and the smoothness of inside/outside threat Gordon Hayward  ( if they can stay healthy) will be a dynamic duo. Also the addition rookie Jayson Tatum who is one of the very best players from this draft class is also going to surprise a lot of the pundits as he fits in perfectly with HC Brad Stevens system. Meanwhile, on D, the Celtics I'm betting may not be that staunch defensively as Horford and Baynes are undersized , and protecting the rim will be a key issue , especially tonight against a Cleveland team that can light it up in a big way from the inside thanks to some off season tinkering.  The Cavs are now more versatile than ever with the additions of Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon and  Turkish small forward Cedi Ozman on the wing and always remain offensively dangerous with the best player in the NBA ( James) on the floor .

I'm betting these teams come at each other full throttle tonight, in a tilt that I have pegged to go over  a total. Note  this Total has been beaten down by both sharps and the public from its orginal 214.5 opening and is now a viable investment opportunity.

CLEVELAND is 39-16 OVER  L/54 when the total is 210 to 219.5 dating back to last season and is 18-8 OVER  L/26  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5, with  the average combined score ringing in at 222.5 ppg.

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.Over is 20-7-1 in Cavaliers last 28 home games.

Play OVER

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - GSW Leads 3-1


Ok, I was wrong about game 4, The Warriors came out to calmly, while the Cavaliers came out playing like they were on mission and their proverbial scalps were on fire, and broke the all time first half play off scoring record with 86 points . It was truly a game that was straight out of a Hollywood script. Explosive scoring , fouls galore, and lots of nasty verbal and physical exchanges that will have the Warriors very very angry here in Game 5 and ready to reap redemption. The Cavaliers point explosion in game 4 will also I'm betting revert back to their mean average , and a natural letdown scenario should be on the agenda tonight. Also the Warriors Stephen Curry, who scored 14 on 4-of-13 shooting will be very primed to bounce back in this spot.

Coach Steve Kerr said his players aren't worried about the past. but in a subliminal way Im sure their aware i it and being the top tier professionals they are, I''m sure the Warriors will find their groove on their way to a win and cover in game 5 in front of their home town fans.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-11 ATS L/33 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 ATS L/7 in home games against Central division opponents this season, winning SU by an average of 26.8 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 16-4 ATS L/20 in home games after allowing 130 points or more.

NBA Underdogs like Cleveland vs the money line- off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are just 14-55 ATS in their followup game. Also NBA teams like the Warriors - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 45-18 ATS .

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NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0

 The Cleveland Cavaliers after playing their hearts out,  and still losing  game 3 of this series, are now both emotionally and physically drained for game 4 of this series. Both of the Cavs big time stars Irving and James, played alot of minutes, and when, Lue tried to rest James, you could see the swing on the pulse of the game in the Warriors favor. .What also became interesting in the third quarter of the last game, was how the Cavs slowed things down instead of trying to run and gun with the Warriors , and had good results for a while doing this , winning the third quarter 33-22.    But Both Irving and James  are tenaciously attacking one on one at that point and also playing from 45 to 55 minutes overall, which means both could easily run out of gas at some point here in game 4, if they slow down for ball control again. This  I'm betting will be disasterous for the Cavs in this game vs a very under rated Dubs D, (ranked 2nd per 100 possessions).

I know alot has been said, about a Cavaliers comeback after last years 3-1 deficit ended in a surprising 7 game championship run for them, but now things are very different. For one Durant is now a Dub, and Curry is 100% healthy, and the Warriors as a whole are hell bent on not giving the Cavaliers any squeeze room to make a come back and will be all out primed to end it here in Ohio tonight. The linesmakers are making the Warriors -6 or more favs and I feel their being generous and I'm going to recommend we lay the points.

GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 ATS L/11 when leading in a playoff series this season winning SU by more than 16 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 ATS in road games in all playoff games this season winning sU by ana verage of 14.2 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game and 10-2 ATS   vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents this season. 

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NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

The Golden State Warriors showed their superiority vs the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first two games of this series, winning both games by double digits. It was the Cavs 22 nd ranked Defensive rating , that continues to be their Achilles heel, as the Warriors 132 point output in game 2 would suggest. Hey, folks,  I'm well aware things can quickly change in NBA play off plays, like they did last year when the Dubs took the first two games of the finals vs the Cavs by a combined 48 points before succumbing in 7 games. But this time around things are different. Like I keep on saying the addition of Durant to the Warriors puts them in a different universe than the rest of NBA, and after last years historic collapse you can bet , that the Warriors will come out here again extremely focused and prepared to play with a proverbial chip on their shoulders. It must also be noted that in last years final series, Curry was less than 100%. Thats not the case this time around.

 What  I'm betting will happen in game 3 , will be that the greatness of super star LeBron James, will not be enough to upend a healthy, very motivated and fresh Warriors team, that looks at a victory here on the road as being a decisive payback blow to Cavs chances of repeating, and their own desire to reign supreme over the basketball universe.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, winning SU by an average of 10 ppg and 26-7 ATS  off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points winning sU by ana verage of 14.2 ppg. 

NBA Favorites like the Warriors - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 56-22 in their followup game for a impressive 72% conversion rate for bettors going back 21 seasons. 

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NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

Game 1 went as expected, by me,  as the Warriors won a 113-91 event, and now with the lines-makers continuing be in a hold pattern concerning the line, barley budging (-7 to -9) I still feel here at home in Oakland that the Dubs are the far superior team, so I will have no problem backing them here tonight,to cover again.

As I said previously, the two best teams according to my power rankings are going head to head for the NBA championship this season. The difference is that the Warriors are in a class of their own, while the Cavaliers are the best of the rest. The last few seasons these teams I thought were fairly evenly matched, but now  with Durant's presence in the Dubs lineup, there's just too much talent for the Cavs to handle. Defense has been issue for the Cavaliers chances at a repeat this season, and  in game one that became evident again. Note: Cavs are ranked 20th in ppg allowed this season, and 21 in defensive rating per 100 possessions (110.3) In this game I'm expecting  , for the Warriors to come out and take advantage of their opponents soft defensive play again via the top offensive attack in the NBA (115.9 ppg), and for their own very under rated D, to stymie LeBron and Company.The Warriors D is ranked 2nd in Defensive rating per 100 possessions.

GOLDEN STATE is 27-16 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season winning SU by an average of 14.4 ppg. CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS  when leading in a playoff series this season winning SU by an average of 18.9 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 21-10 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS  in road games in non-conference games this season losing SU by an average of 9.8 ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Cavaliers - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are just 6-35 ATS L/41 in the followup game.

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Game 1 NBA Finals 

The two best teams according to my power rankings are going head to head for the NBA championship this season. The difference is that the Warriors are in a class of their own, while the Cavaliers are the best of the rest. The last few seasons these teams I thought were fairly evenly matched, but now  with Durant's presence in the Dubs lineup, there's just too much talent for the Cavs to handle. Defense has been issue for the Cavaliers chances at a repeat this season, and I'm expecting for at least game 1 of this series, for the Warriors to come out and take advantage of their opponents soft defensive play. Note: Cavs rank 21st in the league per 100 possessions on defense.  On the other side of the ball the Warriors have shown consistency on D all season long  as is evident by ranking 2nd per 100 possessions and as is usually the case the most amazing offense in the basketball world ranking first in the NBA  (115.9 ppg) and universe as we know it. 

GOLDEN STATE  in 41 games  when playing against a team with a winning record this season, have seen their average margin of victory come by 12.1 ppg. CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS   in road games in non-conference games this season losing SU by an average of 8.8 ppg. 

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Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - CLE Leads 3-1

There is only one way to put this, Boston is banged up and exhausted and  in over their heads  from a talent perspective against the defending champions. Don't get me wrong the Celtics have played valiantly at times, but as has been the case or most of these matchups, the superior team is Cleveland Cavaliers and Im betting they cash on the line and  advance to the finals against the Golden State Warriors after tonight. 

Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Boston.Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings

NBA Underdogs like the Celtics  - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 17-56 ATS dating back 21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 77% for bettors. 

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Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - CLE Leads 2-1

After humiliating the Boston Celtics with an explosive  48 minute surge in game 2 of this series, winning by 46 points, as I expected the Cleveland Cavaliers ran out of gas in game 3. The Cavs looked asleep at the proverbial wheel after a  half time DD lead, evaporated into thin air as they lost by a 111-108 count. James was flat, and his team played soft,while  the Celtics played loose and with extreme grit. I'm betting the amount of energy the Celtics exerted in that game to get back some lost respect will effect them tonight against  a now very angry James and company, who went from being  media god, to a public and media battering ram over the last 48 hours. Talk about exact polar opposites and extreme , irrational exuberance after the last two games, and your looking at an illusion, created by the media, and fans who gobble this stuff up . Hey everyone, loves an underdog, and I loved the Celtics effort in game 3 , but they are in over their heads with Isiah Thomas down.  With that said, I expect another turn around zig/zag event and a DD margin of victory for the Cavaliers and subsequent cover in game 4

NBA Road underdogs like the Celtics  - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are just 32-62 for a go against conversion rate of 66% over the L/5 seasons.

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Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0

Golden State is a explosive team, that knows how to close out opponents, and tonight I expect they will come out with all guns blazing in attempt to finish off an exhausted and banged up opponent. The Spurs are a proud franchise, and will pull out all the stops to avoid at least being humiliated again in front o their own fans, and will have to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the court. This I am betting will lead to a higher scoring game than the linesmakers expect. The Warriors pounded the Blazers by a 128-103 count to end that opening round series, and than clobbered the Utah Jazz, by a 121-95 score in the second round. More of the same total  points production must be expected tonight, 

Golden State after 8 more consecutive winsspanning a 28 game sample size have seen a combined average score of 219.5 ppg go on the board and on the road after two more consecutive wins have seen a combined average of 220 ppg get scored spanning 33 games. Golden State has gone over in 4 straight games, and have scored 116.1 ppg this season, while allowing an average of 105.2 ppg in road games. Meanwhile, San Antonio has averaged 106.1 ppg at home this season, and despite of overall solid defensive numbers this season, have struggled on D of late , because of injuries, allowing 125, 107, 113, 136, 120 pts in 5 o their L/6 games.

Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - CLE Leads 2-0
The Boston Celtics were humiliated in their last trip to the hardwood in game 2 of this series, by a 130-86 count, one of the worst beat-downs in the history of the NBA play offs. and to add insult to injury they will now be without star Isiah Thomas for the rest of the play offs. With the way the last game played out, and the injury news involving the Celtics, the early betting action from the public and some sharp bettors has now hammered the line to the point where, I feel confident enough, to take the points. Call me crazy, but under circumstances like this , character players like Horford can rally a group to show pride and play hard and physical. , After the humiliation the Celtics suffered last time out, it will be easy for them to come out here and play loose and motivated. After all they have nothing to lose, as they are expected by many to lay down and die. Also after Cleveland came out last time with a gigantic energy surge, I won't be surprised if they have a natural letdown in this spot despite of what coach HC Lue is telling the media. So guys, with that said, lets play the mathematical long term edges of taking DD underdog in NBA play.

Road team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Celtics are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.

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Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

I have no problems reversing my views on certain matchups. This is one series, where I thought the underdog Spurs were capable of hanging with the Warriors. I no longer believe this to be the case, as Golden State, a well rested juggernaut look unstoppable at the moment vs a banged up and tired Spurs team, and despite of a couple days rest are team in over their heads vs a championship calibre opponent. 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-2 ATS L/13 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record winning SU by an average of 8.6 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 ATS  in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season winning su by an average of 13.4 ppg. GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS  after a huge blowout win by 30 or more this season, winning the follow up by an average of 21.5 ppg.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Spurs - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points 6-34 ATS L/40.

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    Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - CLE Leads 1-0
The Cleveland Cavaliers owned game 1 of their Eastern Conference series with the Boston Celtics. That was the case during the regular season, as the won 4 of 5 meetings, and now I expect nothing to change in game 2. The Cavs are still fresh, after taking out the Raptors easily in their last series, and very dangerous. With a banged Boston squad that just recently finished playing an exhausting 7 game series, against the Wizards and now running on fumes, they look like fade material once again. CLEVELAND is 35-18 ATS L/53 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days dating back to last season, with a combined average win coming by 8.8 ppg. Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Boston.


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Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

San Antonio knows that defense and physical play will be the key to slowing down the explosive Golden State Warriors. The Spurs behind the 27th ranked pace in the league and 2nd best points against numbers and the best defensive rating are well suited to grind and bang and make life difficult for the Warriors. They proved that in the first half of game 1 of this series, but got caught up trying to run and gun with the Warriors in the 2nd half of that game and finally fell, by a 113-111 count after blowing a DD lead. This time around Im betting on an even more physical defensive effort from the Spurs, and a complete game effort and subseuqent cover.SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 ATS L/8 off a close road loss of 3 points or less, dating back three seasons. NBA Home favorites like the Warriors - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% or better playing a good team (60% to 75%) are just 9-32 ATS dating back 21 seasons.

(Spurs) Leonard injured ruled out of Game 2-  : Spurs are 6-2 ATS without Leonard in the lineup this season.

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Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

San Antonio knows that defense and physical play will be the key to slowing down the explosive Golden State Warriors. The Spurs behind the 27th ranked pace in the league and 2nd best points against numbers and the best defensive rating are well suited to grind and bang and make life difficult for the Warriors. Meanwhile, the Warriors despite of their reputation, are a solid defensive team as well, and ranked 2nd in defensive rating in the league per 100 possessions. I am betting much more physical game than might be expected which will result in a final combined score that remains on the low side of the number.  The Spurs showed their defensive capabilities last time out, in a lopsided  114-75 win vs the Houston Rockets to advance to this round, which sets up a trend that show HC Popovich is 11-2 UNDER L/13 in road games off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog with a combined average of 188.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

GOLDEN STATE is also 11-2 UNDER L/13 when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last few seasons with an average of just 201 combined points going on the board. 

GOLDEN STATE is 18-7 UNDER L/25 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a total combined score of 207.7 ppg getting scored.SAN ANTONIO is 23-12 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season, with a combined average of 201 ppg going on the board

. NBA teams (GOLDEN STATE/SAN Antonio) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 53-15 to the under in the followup game. NBA  teams like the Spurs - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after scoring 105 points or more re 32-8 to the under for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2

Both Washington and Boston are playing this series in a fast and furious manner, as both exhibit explosive offenses with neither team showing consistent defensive instincts. Four of the five game so far have eclipsed the number. The last two saw 223 and 224 points scored and the first two saw 240 and 235 scored, with the lone under seeing Washington win by pouring 121 ppg on the board ( 121-89) Everything once again points to this being a high scoring run and gun  affair.With the linesmakers refusing to bend on the total, I'm running with a recommended over investment on this game 6 battle.

WASHINGTON is 20-9 OVER L/29 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%  or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season, with a combined average of 223.7 ppg getting scored.WASHINGTON is 15-4 OVER L/19 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 233 ppg going on the board. BOSTON is 13-4 OVER  after scoring 120 points or more with a combined average of 220.7 ppg clicking in!WASHINGTON in 23 games  against Atlantic division opponents this season, a combined average of 220.9 ppg were scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON/Washington) - in the second round of the playoffs are 92-42 to the OVER dating back 20 seasons and also NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 like the Celtics  - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 52-27 OVER dating back 20 seasons. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - SAS Leads 3-2

The Spurs and the Rockets played a hard fought back and fourth affair in the last game of this series, and now in a crucial do or die Game 6 battle, more of the same type of tenacious action must be expected. The Rockets need a win to stay alive, and the Spurs would love nothing more to end it now. With that said,  Im betting on another hard battle with end end result proving getting points to be golden proposition. HC Popovich of the Spurs is a master tactician, that will be ready for the small ball attack here in game 6. I'm also betting he will now key  running the attack through with Aldridge in this tilt, and for the  the Spurs’ big men to finally show up and do some damage. I know the Spurs are banged up, but their are some key guys missing for the Rockets to ie Nene, which has forced D'Antoni to shorten his teams rotiation, which will effect their flow on tired legs here tonight  especially after they went in to OT last time .

NBA teams like the Rockets  - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are just 40-82 ATS L/122 for a go against conversion rate fof 67% for bettors.

HOUSTON is 2-11 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 assists/game or more this season.

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Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The first two games in this series here in Boston easily eclipsed the number, and wide open offensive affairs, and I am betting on nothing changing tonight. (235 points were scored in game 1 and 248 combined points in game 2.)

WASHINGTON is 11-3 OVER L/14 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this seaso with na average of 233.6 ppg going on the board. BOSTON is 7-0 OVER L/7 in home games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season, with a combined average of 228.4 ppg. HC Brooks of the Wizards  is 21-9 OVER  after 2 or more consecutive wins with a combined average of 222 ppg going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 like the Boston/Washingtn - in the second round of the playoffs are 90-42 to the OVER dating back 21 seasons.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Houston came out and pounded the Spurs in game 4 of this series, 125-104 , but it it must be noted, that HOUSTON is just 4-12 ATS  after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.Also after high scoring tilts, the Spurs ,  have played well, both defensively and offensively as they are  8-1 ATS after a combined score of 225 points or more this season winning SU 14.3 ppg and are  14-4 ATS  in home games off a road loss . With that, said look for Popvich and company to bounce back and  come here with all guns blazing and to deliver their backers the cash.

HOUSTON is 6-15 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season. SAN ANTONIO is 22-11 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season, winning SU by an average of 8 ppg this season. 

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like San Antonio - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival 53-22 ATS for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Rockets - off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 12-35 ATS for 75% conversion rate for bettors.

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Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 2-1

Washington came out firing on all cylinders in game 3 of this series, and smashed the Celtics 116-89. In the previous two games, the Wizards also looked like the superior team for long stretches, before folding, because of shoddy D,. But now  I''m betting that the Wizards have figured their opponents out, and will show their abilities to dominate once again here on their own floor where they have played their best hoops this season.

WASHINGTON is 18-8 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. WASHINGTON is 21-12 ATS  off a home win this season.WASHINGTON is 18-8 ATS  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. Favorite is 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings with the home team covering 7 straight times.

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The San Antonio Spurs after starting their 2nd round series vs Houston with a loss rebounded last time out, with a 121-96 victroy but suffered a big loss in the process as Star guard Tony Parker was injured and will now miss the rest the play offs. I know the Spurs played 19 games without Parker during the regular season, but regrouping and reforming units in a post seaon atmosphere, wihtout a proven post season performer will effect the teams flow. Meanwhile, Houston last time out, surprisingly struggled in transition against a Spurs defense that wanted to break the Rockets' fast break, flow. But now after seeing what the Spurs did last time out will now be better prepared. It also did not help that thier super star Harden had an off game shooting 3 for 17 and sinking just 13 points. I'm betting he rebounds, along with home team, here on their own home floor and give us a winning ticket.

HOUSTON in 27 games,after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, with the average margin of victory comig by 10 ppg.

Spurs are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.Spurs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games.

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Utah lost the first game of this series, by a 106-94 count covering as 13 point underdogs  and did not look out of place . I’m betting on the Jazz to continue to press for physical action, and to make this game a mucky battle , which favors them staying close enough for a cover once again.

UTAH is 75-49 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons

NBA Home favorites like the Warriors - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team ( 75% or better ) playing another quality team (60% to 75%) are just 9-31 ATS  L/21 seasons for a  conversion rate of 78% for go against bettors.

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Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - 
Game 2 - CLE Leads 1-0


In game 1 of this series, the Cavaliers took a 111-106 victory, and I’m expecting more of the same explosive offensive action here tonight. My own numbers place this total closer to 216.5 , thus according to that projection we have value to the over. CLEVELAND is 16-7 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season, with a combined average of 222.9 ppg going on the board and 17-6 over when playing only their second game in 5 days, with a combined average of 220.5 ppg getting scored.

TORONTO is 13-3 OVER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 220.1 ppg going on the board. CLEVELAND is 30-16 L/37 OVER versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game with a combined average of 221.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. CLEVELAND is 22-7 OVER L/29 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots dating back to last season, with a combined average of 219.6 ppg getting scored.

All NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO/Cleveland ) - in the second round of the playoffs are 76-36 OVER dating back 20 seasons.

Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection

The Utah Jazz successes and failures are predicated on playing solid defensive basketball, as they own the leagues top D, allowing 96.8 ppg, behind the slowest pace in the league (91.6). The Jazz coaching staff know their only chance at victory vs an explosive Golden State team, will see them having to heavily focus around formulating a physical style of hoops, that concentrates on strong rebounding and physical interior play. The Jazz offense ranks 28th in the NBA. Meanwhile, Golden State may take some time to warm up offensively after being off for an extended period of time after sweeping a Portland side in the first round that plays a completely different style of play than Utah. It must also be noted that Golden State despite of their explosive offensive reputation can play solid D, as well, as is evident by their 4th ranked efficiency rating 99.8 ppg per 100 possessions. Considering, what I am betting  on  happening here in game 1 , a lower scoring game must be expected.

 UTAH L/128 play off games have seen an average of 189.7 ppg get scored. Under is 5-0-1 in Jazz last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 11-4 in Warriors last 15 home games. Under is 22-8-1 in Warriors last 31 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings in Golden State. Under is 23-7-2 in the last 32 meetings.

The Jazz advanced via a upset of the LA Clippers last time out which sets up this long term trend…NBA teams have gone  Under 40 of the L/51 times  where the total is 200 to 209.5 (JAZZ) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent  like Golden State off a road win by 10 points or more for a powerful 78% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Toronto Raptors take on a Cleveland Cavaliers that they matchup well against. Some teams just seem to play certain teams , very tough, and that’s the situation tonight. In 4 meetings this season, the Raptors are just 1-3 SU , but the three losses all came by 4 points or less, with the lone win coming on the road in convincing fashion (98-83) with a lot of key Cavs resting.  With the Raptors currently in top form after wrapping up their previous series with Milwaukee by winning 3 straight games, I’m betting that their momentum will carry into this game vs a Cavaliers side that may exhibit rust after an extended 7 day lay off after eliminating the Pacers in 4 straight in their opening play off series. CLEVELAND is 12-24 ATS  after 4 or more consecutive wins . TORONTO is 10-1 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season and 13-4 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

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Two teams that don’t get along very well play each other tonight in the opening game of Eastern Conference semi final  in Boston, as the Celtics host the Wizards. Looking at both teams first round series, it became obvious to me that the Celtics have now rounded into the team that many pundits thought they were, and that is that they are a  contender for the Eastern Conference crown thanks to a D, that is currently ranked  6th in scoring defense, allowing 96.5 points per game,. Boston after starting slowly against the Bulls in their opening round series reeled off 4 straight wins after losing the first two games on their own home floor, and now look to be in top form. Meanwhile, Washington despite of getting by Atlanta to get here in their opening round series, struggled at times against the Hawks, and used their home court advantage to advance by winning 3 games as hosts, but now here on the road in Beantown where they have lost 5 straight and failed to cover all five times I’m betting their at a disadvantage.  in game 1 of this series.  Boston was 30-11 SU in the regular season at home while Washington was a sub par 19-22 SU on the road.

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Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2

Boston won the last two games here in Chicago in this series, but I'm betting on a big time effort tonight by the Bulls on their own home floor to extend this series to 7 games.The Bulls erased 20-point deficits in Games 3 and 4 before Boston surged ahead to get the wins, but now with adjustments and desperation  I can see the Bulls holding their lead in this game.BOSTON is 2-15 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.CHICAGO is 16-5 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive losses.

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The Raptors have taken a 3-2 lead in this series after having lost the first game. Considering how schizophrenic both teams have been, in this series, I won't be surprised by a complete reversal tonight, by a desperate Bucks team trying to avoid elimination. The Raptors have never proven they can close a deal easily and nothing changes tonight, especially with super star Kyle Lowry dealing with a back injury.

MILWAUKEE is 8-0 ATS  in home games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more.

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It has become obvious that the Atlanta Hawks match-up well against the Washington wizards, playing them tough in the first two games of this series on the road, and than  taking out the  Wizards by convincing margins in both Game 3 and Game 4. Game 5 is Wednesday in Washington,  and now I'm betting  once again that his meeting will have both these teams interlocked in battle, that will favor the team getting points.Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Wizards are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.

The biggest issues for the Wizards, centers around their downtown shots.  The Wizards during the regular season were a top tier 3-point shooting team  , but right now the Wizards are hitting a playoff-low 29.7 percent after four games and are having difficulties in transition as they were also outscored in fastbreak points in game 4.  What has also become obvious is that Atlanta's coaching staff have done a better job, of preparing for this series, and have put themselves in a good place for an upset going forward, and more importantly as far as we are concerned a cover tonight. Note:  NBA team vs the money line like the  Wizards - as a # 4 seed in the playoffs, are just 19-39 SU L/ 52 games dating back 5 seasons.

Favorites like the Washington - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are just 31-55 ATS over the last 5 years,

  for a go against conversion rate of 61% for bettors.ATLANTA is 8-0 ATS L/8 after 2 consecutive division games over the last couple of  seasons.

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The Spurs I am betting will be out to move the ball quickly into transition tonight, and not get caught up in a mucky physical affair, something that the Grizzlies would like to play on the road. The pace I am beting is set by the Spurs, after losing 2 straight on the road the need for urgency , and a game plan that favors the Spurs speed and superior offensive abilities will be in full effect tonight. With that said Memphis will have no choice but  to respond with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court, which will result in a total that eclipses the number.

NBA teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points like the Grizzlies  - off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 51-17 OVER dating back 21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

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 Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - HOU Leads 3-1

Im betting on Houston wrapping up this series Tuesday night at home. The Rockets have been has been the superior team  this series despite of not catching fire yet from three point land.  Eventually the Rockets will explode, and tonight is as good a time as any to light a fire and connect on their treys. Bet on the Rockets to romp. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Rockets - a top tier  team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 40-12 ATS dating back 21 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-23 ATS L/32 in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220. Houston has won 7 straight at home in this series. 

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Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The Raptors made adjustment in game 4 of this series, and somehow found a way to win vs what looked to be a lifeless Milwaukee Bucks side, getting a much needed 87-76 victory. However, despite of the Raptors getting the needed win to tie this series up, I felt that something was not right with them, and continually got the feeling that despite of leading for most of the game, that they still could have blown it at anytime. The same must be said about the Raptors game 2 106-100 win after losing the opener. I kept getting the feeling that , that their is something missing , from their lineup ( grit, heart, rhythm) ie  or all the above.The Raptors  are not receiving alot of respect from me in this series, because of  getting run out of their gym in Game 1 and absolutely crushed in Game 3 in Milwaukee. Last time out the Bucks duo of Middleton and Antetokunmpo struggled mightily, but Im betting they rebound in a big way tonight.

Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.Raptors are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 Conference Quarterfinals games. Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

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Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Milwaukee really had some problems last time out against the Raptors in game 2 of this series losing by a 87-76 count and will now have to speed up their tempo to get back in a groove. The Bucks cannot play to the Raptors pace and they know this. With that said look for a much higher scoring two away affair tonight.

MILWAUKEE is 33-16 OVER  after a loss by 10 points or more with a combined average of 209.3 ppg going on the board and 10-1 L/11 to the over under the same loss peremiters, with combined average of 212.2 ppg.  TORONTO is 12-4 OVER  L/16 in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.

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The Boston Celtics arrived in Chicago for game 3 of this series and turned their play around by getting themselves back into their Eastern Conference playoff series with the Bulls with a lopsided 104-87 win. The series now stands at 2-1 . However, despite of that big game last time out, Im now betting on the  Bulls coming back and getting back into a groove in game 4. My own numbers alos suggest tthere is value backin the home underdog. 

CHICAGO is 28-18 ATS  as an underdog this season and s 22-9 ATS  in home games after a loss by 10 points or more and also 13-4 ATS  L/17 after scoring 90 points or less. 

NBA Home underdogs the Bulls  - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 122-77 ATS. 

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Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - CHI Leads 2-1

Boston has scored 100 or more points in 13 of their L/15 overall and allowed 100 or more points in 12 of those 15 tilts. Prior to their last trip the court, the Bulls had scored 102 or more ppg in 6 straight, and tonight I expect they will be more ready to run and gun than they were last time out. My own data chart suggests an upward pace trend in this game,  which will result in a much higher scoring affair than the linesmakers expect.  

CHICAGO is 8-1 OVER  on Sunday games this season with an average of 212.4 ppg going on th scoreboard. Over is 7-2-1 in Celtics last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.

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Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 2-1


According to my own numbers the wrong team is favored here. I know Oklahoma city is at home , and played the Rockets tough in the last two games in this series including a very close win last time out . But after watching the Thunder blow a big lead last time out, and be fortunate enough to get a victory, Im betting their exhausted legs will not deal well with a explosive Rockets side that can run and gun with the best teams in the league.
HOUSTON has covered 13-4 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season and get the nod again today.OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-15 ATS L/22 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Thunder - lower tier defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are just 27-62 ATS in their follow up game for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season.


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Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

These teams are ready to run and gun here tonight in game 3 of this series. Portland had a muted effort in game 2 scoring just 81 points. However,  I now expect the Blazers will be ready to come out here firing on all cylinders  on their own home court, and Im betting on their extremely capable opponents the Golden State Warriors to answer back with some offensive fireworks of their own. Game one of this series saw the Warriors and Blazers partake and in a 121-109 affair, and a repeat type performance is a high probability outcome tonight. 

PORTLAND is 8-1 OVER  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this seasonPORTLAND is 13-4 OVER L/17 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 227.1 ppg going on the scoreboard and 15-4 OVER  L/19 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better) with an average of 222.7 ppg going on the board. Six of the L/8 games played here in Portland have eclipsed the number. 

Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 like the Warriors  - off a home win, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record 31-11 L/42 for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

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Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - SAS Leads 2-1

Now that the Grizzlies have bullied the officials into allowing them to pound away with physical abandon, against the Spurs, without the same repercussions they suffered in the first two game of this series.Im betting they now have the advantage. Although the Spurs had more attempts (28, to Memphis' 20) in the last game at the charity stripe, the Grizzlies were still getting away with alot more than they were allowed to in game 1 and  2. Now  Im betting they have the advantage here tonight behind the the trio of point guard Mike Conley, center Marc Gasol and power forward Zach Randolph.

 MEMPHIS is 15-7 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

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Game 3 between the visiting Wizards  and the Hawks takes place this  Saturday at Philips Arena, with Washington holding a 2-0 lead.  In the first two games Atlanta played the Wizards tough, but that was not a enough to register a victory. The bottom line here is that The Wizards finished the season as one of the league's hottest sides and have not slowed down in the play offs , while the Hawks have been extremely inconsistent all season long, and have demonstrated their volatility in this series, with huge runs , followed by long lulls of futility. That In my humble opinion is not going to get the job done against a side like the Wizards. 

WASHINGTON is 20-8 ATS L/28 off 2 or more consecutive home wins. ATLANTA is 5-13 ATS L/18 vs. division opponents this season. Dating  back to Nov 4 of this season, the Wizards have won 5 straight meetings in this series, including the only game as visitors by a 112-86 count covering as 3.5 point dogs.

NBA favorites Favorites like the Hawks - vs. division opponents, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are just 31-51 ATS in their followup games, for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

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Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Utah likes to muck up the waters with a grinding style of play which suits their player personnel. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers need to use their top tier offensive talents , and push in transition. Tonight, will see a war of wills, but this type of action I am betting will result of this being a much higher scoring game than the line makers suggest. 

LA CLIPPERS are 17-8 OVER as a road favorite this season with a combined average of 215.4 ppg going on the board. LA CLIPPERS are 12-1 OVER L/13 in road games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last couple of seasons with a combined average of 213.5 ppg getting scored. 

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According to my own numbers the wrong team is favored here. I know Oklahoma city is at home , and played the Rockets tough in the last three quarters, in game 2 of this series, before the Rockets took control and showed their superiority. I also know super star Westbrook will be the go to guy, again, and the home crowd will help them out, but Westbrooks usage numbers during the regular season were astonishing as he owns a 41.7 % ratio.Note: OKC owned a sub par 18-21 SU record this season when Westbrook had over a 40 % usage rate and they were 0-2 against the Rockets, and had a big game last time out. However,  we all know what the results were in that game. Nothing changes tonight, despite of what will be the Thunders best efforts. 

HOUSTON is 12-4 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

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With the Boston Celtics  a 2-0 hole, I'm betting the Beatown basketball crew come out here with all guns blazing in desperation mode. The Chicago Bulls will than have to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own in a tilt I am betting eclipses the total. CHICAGO is 14-6 OVER L/20 after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season, with a combined average of 215.1 ppg going on the scoreboard, and in the /bulls L/53 games vs Atlantic division teams the combined average total of those tilts rang in at 207.4 ppg. The Celtics have scored 100 or more points in 12 of their L/14 and allowed 100 or more points in 12 of their L/14. 

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    Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - SAS Leads 2-0
In their game 2 meetings back in San Antonio the Grizzlies tried to implement their usually physical style of basketball, and to try to slow the game down into an affair that would keep them competitive vs a superior side. However, despite of their efforts the officials refused to allow the Grizzlies to get mucky and slow the game down, as was evident by the huge advantage of free throw fouls in the game. The Spurs were 31 for 32 from the charity stripe while, the Grizzlies, went 13 of 15 with FTs, which paints a picture of which team was being penalized the most. After the game HC Fizdale of the Grizzlies was furious, at the officials, for being so anal, and thus received a $30,000 fine for a screaming tirade, while pointing the finger at the officials , as he called them unprofessional and unacceptable. So not only were the Grizzlies trying to intimidate their opponents, but now are also trying to bully officials in laying off on their aggressiveness. What I'm betting, will happen now is that the Spurs will be even more motivated to respond, and for the league and officials to push back , and remain consistent in their current officiating stance. One of the reasons, why attacking officiating is met with such disdain, is because leagues don't want the officials to be bulied in to changing the way they call a game, which Im sure will be a key to any conference calls between the league head offices and referees. It has become obvious to me, that the Spurs look very focused on a championship run and intimidation will not work.
Also one last thing, with ball hawk Tony Allen not in the lineup its become obvious to me the Grizzlies are not as cohesive or dangerous, making them fade material tonight at home in game 3.


Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like San Antonio - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, top tier team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are a bankroll expanding 32-10 ATS for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.
MEMPHIS is 1-12 ATS when playing with 2 days rest this season losing SU by an average of 10 ppg and is 1-8 ATS off a loss against a division rival this season.Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.Grizzlies are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games.Favorite is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

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Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - SAS Leads 2-0

Grinding into a slow methodical pace has not helped the Grizzlies so far in this series, and now they will have to speed things up here on their own home floor. Of course the Spurs will reciprocate with their own fire works which I am betting leads to a higher scoring game that many may anticipate based on the first two games in this series. In Memphis's L/9 games off a loss to a division rival thye have seen an average of 201.9 ppp get scored. Memphis when on 2 days rest have seen a combined score of 202.5 ppg get scored. SAN ANTONIO is 23-12 OVER  after a cover as a double digit favorite dating back to last season have seen an average of 201.4 ppg go on the scoreboard.

NBA Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points like the Grizzlies  - attempting 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season, in April games have seen the over go 57-26 dating back 5 seasons .

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Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

These teams took part in a 106-100 point game last time out in Toronto which is a true pace, of where I am betting this series is headed in . MILWAUKEE is 25-16 OVER in home games this season with an a average of average of 209 ppg going on the scoreboard. Toronto has seen an average of 204.9 ppg go on the board in road games this season.

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These teams played two high scoring games in the first two meetings of this series, and nothing suggests anything will change tonight.

All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 the Pacers - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 64-28 on the over for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

CLEVELAND in their L/27  after a combined score of 225 points or more this season have seen an average of 220.4 ppg go on the scoreboard.CLEVELAND is 20-8 OVER L/28 as a road favorite this season have seen a combined score of 222.5 ppg go on the scoreboard. HC McMillians L/8 games have seen an average of 220.1 ppg go on the board. HC Lue is 20-7 OVER L/27 in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 with ana verage of 221.1 ppg clicking in on the board. 

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Warriors coach Steve Kerr said Durant may not play tonight against  Portland in the second game of this series, after Golden State took a 121-109 victory Sunday.  Even withut Durant Im betting the Warriors are the superior team, and come out here firing darts against a over rated Portland side that they have beaten   in 11 of the past 12 meetings .GOLDEN STATE is 21-8 ATS L/29  in the first round of the playoffs and get the nod again in this spot as they go for 10 straight wins at home in this series. 

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Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2
The Houston Rockets have been an entertaining explosive offensive entity on the NBA highlight reels this season and cruhed the Oklahoma City thunder in game 1 of this series and I was not surprised by the outcome. This what I said, about game 1 and it still holds true for game 2. The Rockets after a huge run for most of the season , slacked off towards the end especially with their 3 point shooting, but now I expect a upward reversion to the norm, as key catalyst Ryan Anderson is now healthy. With so many weapons, including a motivated veteran James Harden the Thunder I am betting will have problems dealing with their opponents in their own charged up building in game 1 of this series. Meanwhile, the Rockets goal will be to focus their attentions on slowing Oklahoma City's super star Westbrook down, which in turn will alter the flow of the Thunder's attack, since the team has had problems , getting the entire goup involved. Westbrooks usage numbes are astonishing as he owns a 41.7 % ratio.Note: OKC owned a sub par 18-21 SU record this season when Westbrook had over a 40 % usage rate and they were 0-2 against the Rockets. And yes, Westbrook did put up some big numbers vs the Rockets this season, but it must be noted his team still lost 3 of 4 matchups. I know alot of people are focusing on how close some of the meetings this year, but game 1 of this series offers up a completely dfferent set of circumstances and atmosphere than those games, and the Rockets have the advantage as long as they can bang heads with top rebounders Taj Gibson, Enes Kanter, and Steven Adamas, which I very much expect. .

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-14 ATS L/16 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-15 ATS L/17 in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season losing SU by ana verage of 10.7 ppg. Houston is 10-2 ATS L/12 vs the Thunder and have won 6-0 straight meetings at home in this series covering 5 of the 6. 

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The Los Angeles Clippers lost  Game 1 of this series  97-95  to the Utah Jazz,   at Staples Center because they played to the Jazz pace. Now I expect they will speed up their play and look for quicker transition into their offense. Their Clippers reserves were outscored by the Jazz's 47-20 , but Im expecting a different story this time around and a more aggressive offensive effort from the Clippers in a game 2. With that said,  I am betting the  combined score will eclipse the total. In Utah's last 12 games as a underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points a total of 200.6 ppg were scored. In the Clippers L/19 home games after a 1  or more straight unders a total combined score in the following game came up a 214.8 ppg and their L/26 games revenging a loss the total combined score clicked in at 208 ppg. 

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Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2

Chicago went all out to secure a playoff spot, winning 7 of their L/9 games,    and than stormed in and took out Boston in game 1 of this series, hauling down an amazing 20 offensive rebounds, something Im betting they won't even close to replicating tonight in game 2 of this series. The question is what makes the Bulls so much better than they were during the regular season. They were a streaky mediocre team to say the least and despite of the late season run are still according to my power rankings the less of the two teams doing battle tonight. Meanwhile, while the Celtics  took out 13 of their L/17 opponents,entering the play offs and despite of  looking like they were  asleep at the proverbial wheel in game one,  are now wide awake and will be playing with immediate urgency .With that said, look for the Celtics  to play a complete game what promises to be an energized home crowd. CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS L/31 off a road win over the last 2 seasons and is is 16-30 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog.

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Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - MIL Leads 1-0

The Raptors are now 0-9 SU L/9 in opening games of first-round playoff series .  The team came out very flat losing by a 97-83 count  . It was noted that  all star G Kyle Lowry , had flu symptoms and that some players were experiencing fatigue, because a virus or something similar was making the rounds through the locker room.  Whether this was an excuse or rumor makes no difference as I now expect the talented Raptors to come out on fire and ready for redemption in game two of this series.  Now with time to rest and get completely healthy I expect a reversal in the Raptors fortunes here in game two.MILWAUKEE is 6-18 ATS L/24 after allowing 85 points or less 

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Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - SAS Leads 1-0

In the first game of this series the Grizzlies came out on fire exerting a great deal of energy, to roll out to  DD lead , before tiring and scored just 33 points in the second half and missed 9 of its 10 3-point attempts after halftime. It was ugly to say the least , especially considering how they started the game. The Spurs took the opening game of the series  thanks to the Grizzlies exhaustion, and their own 19-0 offensive explosion over a five-minute span  startiing at the end of the third quarter to turn a tightly contested tilt into a 111-82 beat down. I know the Grizzlies are without defensive specialist, Tony Allen, but their inability to monitor and conserve their energy levels was a killer in game 1. Now in true a zig zag theory, recommendation, I am going to back the Grizzlies in game 2. You have to remember Memphis finished 2-2 against the Spurs in their four regular-season games, and in 197 minutes, the Grizzlies finished with a +2.0 net rating and have proven in the recent past they can play the Spurs tough and compete.The Grizzlies stood tall vs Spurs' offense, allowing them a 98.2 offensive rating in a very physical fashion.Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph smothered the Spurs in their 61 minutes on the court together, posting a +18.7 net rating and must not be underestimated based on the first game of this series.

SAN ANTONIO is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games off a win against a division rival this season, while Memphis is 15-7 ATS L/23 off a road loss this season.

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Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1
The Houston Rockets have been an entertaining explosive offensive entity on the NBA highlight reels this season. The Rockets after a huge run for most of the season , slacked off towards the end especially with their 3 point shooting, but now I expect a upward reversion to the norm, as key catalyst Ryan Anderson is now healthy. With so many weapons, including a motivated veteran James Harden the Thunder I am betting will have problems dealing with their opponents in their own charged up building in game 1 of this series. Meanwhile, the Rockets goal will be to focus their attentions on slowing Oklahoma City's super star Westbrook down, which in turn will alter the flow of the Thunder's attack, since the team has had problems , getting the entire goup involved. Westbrooks usage numbers are astonishing as he owns a 41.7 % ratio.Note: OKC owned a sub par 18-21 SU record this season when Westbrook had over a 40 % usage rate and they were 0-2 against the Rockets. And yes, Westbrook did put up some big numbers vs the Rockets this season, but it must be noted his team still lost 3 of 4 matchups. I know alot of people are focusing on how close some of the meetings this year, but game 1 of this series offers up a completely dfferent set of circumstances and atmosphere than those games, and the Rockets have the advantage as long as they can bang heads with top rebounders Taj Gibson, Enes Kanter, and Steven Adamas, which I very much expect. .

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS L/16 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season losing SU by an average of 10.4 ppg. OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-14 ATS L/17 in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season losing SU by ana verage of 10.7 ppg. Houston is 9-2 ATS L/11 vs the Thunder and have won 5-0 straight meetings at home in this series covering 4 of the 5. 


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Chicago went all out to secure a playoff spot, winning 7 of their L/9 games, including a 112-73 beatdown of Brooklyn in their season finale.  I mean this team worked really hard, and must be exhausted by now.I respect their effort, but  what Im betting on now, is that not even the short rest , will be enough to avert a loss on tired legs vs what  my own power rankings suggest is the far superior side and one of the top teams in the East. The Celtics  took out 13 of their L/17 opponents, and once again look strong as favorites on their own home floor. In their L/meeting here on March 12 the Celtics handed the Bulls as 100-80 beatdown. Rinse and repeat in Game 1 of this series. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Bulls- revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are just 4-32 ATS for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. CHICAGO is 8-19 ATS  L/27 in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 assists/game or more.

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Atlanta saw an average of 202.6 ppg go on the scoreboard in their road games this season, and own the 27th ranked  offensive rating in the league. Meanwhile, the Wizards saw an average of almost 216 ppg go on the scoreboard in their home games this season.  With that said, the Hawks who own the 4th best defensive rating in the NBA will Im betting attempt to give themselves a chance at winning on the road by implementing  a slower more physical game plan to deal with the Wizards take no prisoners style of hoops.  This will see the total combined score hit in a  the 207-209 range according to my own player to player and systems matchup configurations. Thus giving value to an under wager. 

Note: The Wizards despite of some high scoring game outputs this season still rank only 11 th in pace in the league, 

Atlanta has seen 11 of their L/14 games stay on the low side of the number. HC Budenholzer is 17-6 UNDER L/23 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game with the total combined score coming in at 208.5 ppg. ATLANTA is 12-3 UNDER l/15  versus lower tier defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this  season and is 11-2 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - allowing a shooting pct defense of 46% +  with a combined average of 203.2 ppg getting scored.. Atlanta  is 10-0 UNDER  off a road loss by 10 points or more this season, which happened in their finale. ATLANTA is 30-9 UNDER  after playing a road game this season.ATLANTA is 13-2 UNDER  after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season.ATLANTA is 13-3 UNDER L/16 vs. division opponents this season.The Hawks from a long term perspective have seen a combined average of 187.3 ppg go on the board in their L/54 play off road games dating back to the late 90s. 

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The fourth-seeded Wizards (49-33) and No. 5 Hawks (43-39) open their best-of-seven first-round series  in the nations capital this Sunday.  Alot of pundits expect the Wizards to run all over  the Hawks.  But in this  playoff opener. I expect Hawks Coach Mike Budenholzer will have his team playing a tougher brand of defense, and is expected  to have Tim Hardaway Jr. and Taurean Prince starting Game 1, which gives the Hawks a much different dynamic , than the Wizards may have planned on playing against. I really feel the Hawks  must not be underestimated as was the case when they  won four in a row late in the season, including a home-and-home sweep over the defending NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers.With that said,  look for the Hawks to bang their way to a cover in game 1. ATLANTA is 31-16 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) and 17-8 ATS L/25 versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season. 

Play on the Hawks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Clippers enter this play off series vs the Utah Jazz having won 11 of their L/13 games  including 7 straight,and are back to playing at a very high level, after a mid season swoon because of key injury issues. Meanwhile, the Jazz are also playing a top tier style of basketball. However, from a matchup perspective my own data suggests the Clippers are the superior overall team when healthy as they are now , especially when playing here at home in the Staples Center. 

Utah is 11-22 ATS L/33 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record.UTAH is 1-10 ATS L/11 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and failed to cover 14 of 19 road games as dogs. UTAH is 2-11 ATS  as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.Jazz are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Jazz are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Pacific.Jazz are 8-22-2 ATS in their last 32 vs. Western Conference.Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Jazz are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

P:lay on the LA Clippers to cover  1 unit reg selection 

The goal for the Bulls here tonight is to win this game , and get into the play offs, Its a simple scenario. Bulls win= playoffs.  All that stands in their way is a sometimes explosive , Brooklyn Nets team. that have proven they can be a formidable opponent, for all comers over the last month of the season, and will not easily bow down to the Bulls in this spot. Another thing that must be considered concerning for Bulls backers is that the team, has been playing all out of late, and must be extremely tired. Last time out they played a full game at full speed, beating lowly Orlando 122-75 which sets up these dismal trends. CHICAGO is 0-11 ATS L/11 in home games after allowing 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons  and  is 1-11 ATS L/12  after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games dating back to last season. Also the two most recent meetings in this series were were decided by 1 and 2 points respectively, and Im betting on a much closer game than the lines-makers expect once again.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter into this game with their super star Westbrook achieving his statistical goals, and the team guaranteed the 6th seed entering the play offs. With nothing left to play for in the regular season, and staying healthy the main focus, I'm betting against the Thunder  tonight in Minnesota . Meanwhile, a  young Wolves team that would love to end their season on a winning note in their final home game of the season, will be primed to play and play hard . It must also be noted that the team is unveiling a new logo, so getting off on the proverbial right foot is important, and thus we should have a motivated group to back in this spot. 

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Tonight Miami needs a win badly to keep their play off hopes alive, and I am betting they will be primed to play hard, against a Cleveland team that may rest key players, for all or parts of this game. I know the Cavaliers have revenge on board, for a 120-92 loss to the Heat March 4th, where the Cavs also rested players, but once again the champs don't have alot of incentives to tire their stars for short term goals, considering they played last night, with super star James clocking 47 minutes . I am betting  HC Lues' focus is on the play offs, and that will be evident tonight. The Heat have won 12 straight games in this series here in Miami and nothing changes tonight. Cavaliers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games playing on 0 days rest.Heat are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Lakers despite of being eliminated from the post season, and by all accounts having an overall dismal season, have been rolling of late winning three straight games and more importantly have covered 4 straight tilts. QUOTE:"I think we're playing more together," said Lakers forward Larry Nance Jr. . "We're not necessarily caring who gets the points, who gets the rebounds, who gets the steals. Everybody's focused on trying to get some wins." END QUOTE: Meanwhile, the visiting, Minnesota Wolves are looking a little fatigued of late , and that was evident in  a 120-113 loss on Friday to Utah, after blowing a decent lead. With that said, the Timberwolves are 0-3 on their current four-game road swing  and are weak favorites here in spot according to my own cross reference matchup guides. MINNESOTA is 12-22 ATS L/34 when playing against a team with a losing record this season and is 11-26 ATS L/27 versus lower tier  teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Dallas Mavs dont have alot to play for as they have been eliminated from the post season, and look unmotivated in a loss last time out. However they do have to keep their pride intact going into the off season , which  actually means something top pedigree coaches like Carlisle.  Their hosts the  Suns are  bottom feeders in the  Western Conference  and a lowly 1 1/2 games below the Los Angeles Lakers . However despite of that have  won two of three against Dallas this season and actually stunned the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out by a 120-99  count. With that said,  Im now betting the young Suns after their all out, take no prisoners win last time out, will now be in an emotional letdown spot today vs a side that wants revenge for an earlier loss in this series this season. It must also be noted that the Mavericks entered the  fourth in the league in scoring defense (100.5) and Phoenix was last (113.2) Even with a depleted Dallas lineup,  I am betting they can keep pace with this opponent and even pull off the SU upset as road dogs.

Suns are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games following a straight up win.Mavericks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Suns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

DALLAS is 21-9 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season and is 11-3 ATS L/14 revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.

PHOENIX is 6-16 ATS L/22  versus poor offensive teams - scoring or less 98 points/game.

 NBA Road favorites like Dallas - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are a bankroll expanding 35-8 ATS for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. It must be noted seems to like playing on Sundays , as is evident by a  10-0 ATS record in Sunday games this season winning SU by an average of 13 ppg. 

Also NBA Road favorites like the Mavs - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46% or better on the season, poor rebounding team - out-rebounded by opponents by 3+ per game are 31-13 ATS for 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Indiana Pacers look suddenly rejuvenated after the addition of former franchise juggernaut  Lance Stephenson. Since his arrival the Pacers took the Cleveland Cavaliers to double ot and than proceeded to win their two following games. Now playing with confidence and also a sense of urgency I expect they will be primed to perform tonight vs a Orlando team out of the play offs and debuting D League prospects. From a matchup perspective the Pacers have owned the Magic this season, winning all three meetings, by an average of 14 ppg, including a 98-88 win here  in the Magic Kingdom on Feb 1.  What we have here is a  Rinse and repeat situation based on head to head and matchup analysis.  

The Pacers are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 visits to Central Florida to play the Magic.

ORLANDO is 13-25 ATS in home games this season and 25-34 ATS as underdogs losing SU by an average of 8.5 ppg. Pacers HC McMillan is 35-15 ATS L/40 in road games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, winning SU by an average of 7 ppg. 

Indiana Pacers to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Jazz enter this game notching wins in  four of their last five games despite of an array  injury woes. I personally respect the Jazzs coach Quin Snyder  and his ability to mix and match lineups while continuing to have players remain disciplined behind his system, despite of his walking wounded . Meanwhile, the   Timberwolves blew  another fourth-quarter lead in Thursday's 105-98 loss to Portland . This young team breaks down on a regular basis as that was their 21st time after leading by double digits that they lost a game, the worst such record in the league. With that said, I expect the home team will be primed to play tonight, and be very motivated to keep the all important fourth seed entering the post season, and to also be focused on reaping revenge for a a 107-80 home loss to the Wolves which ended a five-game winning streak in the series.

Timberwolves are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.Jazz are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Indiana Pacers play host to the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday night as both teams try to garner post season spots, but Indiana is the more desperate of the two and cannot afford a loss.

The Milwaukee Bucks after a strong run, winning 14 of 17 have now lost two in a row in look exhausted in their last tilt losing by a 110-79 blowout decision vs the Oklahoma City. Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers, have looked very rejuvenated since the return of Lance Stephenson and rode the energy of the home crowd last time out in a smash down of a good Toronto Raptors team by a 108-90 count. Now with Indiana needing wins to stay alive for the post season and the added incentive of getting revenge for three straight losses in this series this season Im betting we see a take no prisoners attitude and an extremely motivated (performance from the home team . ( The Pacers are 27-12 at home, while the Bucks have held their own on the road at 18-20.) 

It must be noted that he Indiana Pacers are 8-0 SU/ATS L/8 with same season triple revenge as hosts. Meanwhile the Bucks are just 1-11 SU and and 2-10 ATS L/12 away vs a side like the Pacers looking to get revenge for three straight losses in a series. 

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 1 unit reg selection

Two teams at the bottom end of my power rankings go head to head tonight in the Magic Kingdom as the Brooklyn Nets play the Orlando Magic. Granted Brooklyn has looked decent of late, but still have alot of problems to deal with in the off season,  as they have a tendency of going into catastrophic breakdown mode when not consistently hitting treys from downtown and a defense that is porous to say the least. Also according to my own cross reference systems and play player to  player matchup scenarios the Magic actually have the edge here on their own home floor. With Orlando playing with better flow, thanks to their wings ability to run and shoot in transition Im betting they matchup well and get my endorsement in this ugly betty spot play . The Magic are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series including a 118-11 win here back on Dec 16th of this season. (Brooklyn shot an amazing 64% from the floor in victory vs Philadelphia last time out,  and now expecting  for a reversion to the mean in a letdown effort scenario). 

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Clippers have won four of their last five overall and seven of nine, but one of the losses came  to the Mavericks , a team that has won two straight meetings in this series. The Clippers are just 4-13 ATS L/17 when playing against a team with a losing record, and look to be over blown favorites in ths spot. LA CLIPPERS are 2-12 ATS  in home games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent. With that said,  Im betting on HC Carlisle formulating a game plan that helps his team be very competetive tonight. 

NBA Home favorites like the LA Cippers - a strong  3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or worse), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (-5.5 or less reb/game). 

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Two teams at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum go head to head tonight as the explosive Golden State Warriors visit the desert to play the young Phoienx Suns. The Warriors have won 12 straight SU while the Suns have lost 12 straight.  The bottom line here, is that Golden State has virtually wrapped up the top seed in the West , but are still trying to keep momentum on their side, going towards the play offs, and despite of resting some players will still be primed to win. Im also sure HC Kerr has told his team not overlook tonight's opponent, which gives me confidence in laying points with my own rankings is the best and deepest team in the league. It must be noted that the Warriors have beaten the Suns 10 straight times, including three times this season by 6, 13, 29 points respectively, and Im betting on another conclusive win here.

This from a league wide NBA data base: Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Suns - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are just 4-31 ATS or a go against conversion rate of 89% for bettors. 

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 1 unit reg selection 

The Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings are two teams that won't be in the play offs this season. The Kings will miss their 11th straight post season, and the Mavs will miss for  only the second time in 17 seasons. The Kings are rebuilding , while Dallas looks for younger players to replace the old guard. Needless to say this game does not have alot excitement attached to it. However, more importantly it is a bankroll expansion money making opportunity , that has me recommeding we go against a Sacramento side, that meets my criteria as  a weak favorite despite of winning 3 of their L/5 overall. 

DALLAS is 18-8 ATS L/26 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game.DALLAS is 15-4 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season and is is 9-1 ATS   after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more this season. SACRAMENTO is 4-13 ATS L/17 when playing with 2 days rest.

This is a key long term trend form a NBA Database: NBA Home teams like the Kings - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a lower tier  rebounding team (5.5 or less reb/game) are 18-51 ATS for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

Oklahoma City is slumping a bit of late, and Im blaming that on the one man show Russell Westbrook. Why you say? Westbrook is a super star. Yes, and he has an ego that matches his vast  talents, and has a tendency to be selfish. With that said,  and for now at least the Thunder have lost focus on their post season  goals and  don't seem to be as foused on more important factors, but rather on their super stars records status. Meanwhile, the Bucks ,  are a team fighting for a post season appearence and playoff positioning, and are capable of upsetting the Thunder in their own diggs. Last time out, they looked like the pressure of their current status, effected their play, in a 109-105 loss,  but today I expect they bounce back in a big way. QUOTE: We didn't play hard enough, we didn't do what we usually do," key Bucks cog Antetokounmpo said. "That's the game, and we move on. We know how important these last five games are for us. We're going to play together and try to finish it off strong." END QUOTE

Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Milwaukee has covered 3 of the L/ 4 meetings in this series and won a 98-94 decision at home back on Jan 2 of this season. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Brooklyn has been playing decent basketball of late, and have won two straight, but despite of their better play, are still a team with all lot of deficiencies. The Nets are also on tired legs as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days. Note: BROOKLYN is just 11-27 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days , losing SU by an average of 11 ppg. Meanwhile, Philadelphia their hosts tonight despite of being banged up and depleted, are a side with some great work ethic, and seeing some great contributions from new faces like Alex Poythress who was in the NBA development league. With that said, I like the home team in this spot, from a systems matchup perspective and recommend we plug our noses , hold our breath and pull the trigger on the 76ers side that has won all three meetings in this series this season and 25-11 ATS at home during the current campaign including 5-1-1 ATS vs their division.

PHILADELPHIA is 20-9 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses this seasonPHILADELPHIA is 11-2 ATS  vs. division opponents this seasonPHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season. BROOKLYN is 4-13 ATS  after having won 2 of their last 3 games.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers 1 unit reg selection 

After winning their respective Final Four matchups on Saturday, No. 1 seed Gonzaga will battle No. 1 seed North Carolina for the national title Monday night. Ok folks, now Im going to be as blunt and to the point as possible. I know Gonzaga has had a tremendous season, and I wont take that way from them, but beating lower tier teams in a lower tier conference  and than taking out underdog upstarts like Xavier ad South Carolina , Northwestern ,  and over rated West Virginia  from more respected conferences to get here is not overly impressive to me. I know some might argue about what I'm saying, but  I'm not knocking the four teams I just mentioned , I just don't believe they are in the same company as speedy/ explosive offensive Tar Heels squad. I'm also not sold on Gonzagas coach Mark Few, who despite of being a great recruiter is a guy that has not ever proven he can deliver a national championship banner, and has failed in key big games in the past. With that said, look for Roy Williams years of winning experience   to be the key difference maker here today. Also after watching,  a very tough Joel Berry II play decently on his sore/sprained ankles Im starting to believe that this injury is being overblown by the media, and possibly even being used as a trojan horse by Williams and company, to make them appear vlnerable,  and  will not greatly effect North Carolinas offensive flow .

This from a CBB ATS data base: All teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Heels  - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are a bankroll expanding 23-5 ATS dating back 5 seasons for a very profitable 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the North Carolina Tar Heels to cover  1 unit reg selection

The Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets, both need to get in the win column today, and this will be an important play off type game for both of them as they vie for a post season appearance. Due to tiebreakers, the Chicago Bulls are in seventh place, the Heat are eighth. With that said, the the Heat matchup well vs the Nuggets and  have won three straight games in their series  and once again get my backing here today. It must be noted that the  Nuggets are banged up and  have three players who are questionable for Sunday: point guard Jameer Nelson (calf); shooting guard Will Barton (foot) and forward Darrell Arthur (knee) which I: betting effects their flow. MIAMI is 11-2 ATS L/13 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts and is 13-1 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game and also 12-1 ATS L/13 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots.DENVER is 0-7 ATS L/7 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season. MIAMI is 15-7 ATS as a home favorite this season winning SU by an average of 8 ppg.

Play on Miami Heat  to cover 1 unit reg selection 

When there was no pressure on Milwaukee they looked to be in a flow, and have gotten themselves in a position for a play off spot by winning 14 of their L/18 overall. But now with added pressure , Im wondering about their ability to be as dangerous. Their last effort punctuated my current thought processes , as they struggled to beat a Motown Pistons team that is mired in a deep funk, working extra hard to get a 108-105 OT win after blowing a 18 point lead. Milwaukee is also expected to be without guard Malcolm Brogdon, a Rookie of the Year candidate , and his absence was missed last time out , and Im betting will be missed again. Meanwhile the desperate Mavericks come to Milwaukee looking to stop a four game losing streak  and need wins badly to stay in the play off picture. The odds are they won't make it to post season play, which means I expect they wil be playing loose and dangerous with nothing really to lose.It must be noted that Dallas has won eight of the last 10 meetings with the Bucks, including an 86-75 overtime victory earlier this season. and I'm recommedning we back them  today getting points.

MILWAUKEE is 5-15 ATS  versus poor defensive teams like Dallas - shooting pct defense of 46% or more  this season.DALLAS is 9-0 ATS  in Sunday games this season. MILWAUKEE is just 6-15 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

I have been hard on Charlotte this season because of their wild inconsistencies, but they are presently playing at a high level, winning 6 of their L/8 SU/ATS  and must be respected. My own player to player and matchup systems analysis also tell me that actually matchup well against their hosts the Oklahoma City Thunder . The Hornets beat the Thunder 123-112 on Jan 4 th, and Im betting they will be competitive today vs a team off a hard fought heart breaking loss to the Spurs, last time out by a 100-95 count  that will now have them in a letdown scenario this Sunday. Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.

Play on Charlotte to cover 1 unit reg selection 

NCAA Tournament - Final Four - University of Phoenix Stadium - Glendale, AZ

North Carolina is a team with some big time pedigree and has a huge amount of respect from the nations basketball pundits, Meanwhile, Oregon does not get the same respect from the meida, but has proven to be a very strong side this season. With that said, the Ducks have been ranked high on my power rankings during my current betting campaign, and after watching them take out Michigan, and than a very good Kansas team, in what was essentially a road game for them, they have gained my respect and admiration. From a matchup standpoint the Ducks have proven all season long that they can slow down the best of offensive teams ie Arizona and UCLA, and I have confidence that they can do it again. Meanwhile, North Carolina is off a huge emotionally charged last second win vs Kentucky, and may now have problems mustering up the same energy here this Saturday despite of the rest. With the Tar Heels star guard Joel Berri II expected to play with a banged up ankle, Im betting the Ducks take their flow away and possibly end up advancing to the championship game with a outright win as dogs. However more importantly I expect Altamn to out coach Roy Williams and get us the cover. OREGON is 20-7 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.OREGON is 8-1 ATS  vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.OREGON is 7-1 ATS L/8  versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game. Altman is 30-13 ATS L/43 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game.

Play on Oregon to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 Two teams on 2 game winning streaks, enter into this tilt in decent form, and vying for a play off spot. The Hawks prior to their wins , had a ugly 7 game losing streak, but have been wildly inconsistent all season long, as have their opponents today the Chicago Bulls, who proved their inefficiencies in a loss to lowly injury riddled Philadelphia recently. From a head to head matchup perspective the Hawks , however, have the edge against a team that depends to much on a hot shooting from downtown, as their coach Hoiberg prefers. I know the the Hawks are playing with out key cog Millsap, but watching their recent adjustments to his absence gives me confidence in them making this a hard fought affair, that gives them the edge taking points. Note: The Hawks own a seven-game winning streak vs the Bulls including three this season and get the nod again with points in hand. 

CHICAGO is 17-32 ATS L50 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points dating back to last season.CHICAGO is 11-22 ATS L/33 after a win by 6 points or less which happened against the Cavs last time out.Hawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. NBA Central.Bulls are 18-40 ATS in their last 58 vs. NBA Southeast.

 Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 College Insider Tournament - Championship Game

The line of this championship game opened at -1.5 with St.Peters as favorites. Than both public and smart money flowed in on the Peacocks. With that said, St.Peters is a fine team, and have really come together late in the season, but now we are dealing with mathematics and lack of overall respect for Texas AM Corpus Christi. While its not always a good thing to go against the marker flow, there comes a time when it is over done, and thats what Im betting on here. Currently according to my own numbers and cross reference systems and player to player matchup configurations  this line is now slightly bloated, and a very underrated Texas AM CC has an edge as the underdog getting points. This also from a CBB trend data base: Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Texas A&M CC - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are a bankroll expanding 67-29 ATS and 5-0 ATS this season for a very profitable long term 70% conversion rate for betting backers. 

Play on Texas A&M CC to cover 1 unit reg selection 

 The Detroit Pistons stopped a five-game losing streak Thursday but nothing comes easy for the Pistons, and its seems they are just plain tired and wiped out as the regular season finish line comes closer.  The Pistons have lost 8 of their L/10 SU and after watching some of their games, it has become obvious to me that things are a mess with Motown hoops. I know the Pistons are still in pursuit of a play off spot, and HC Van Gundy is saying all the right things, but the results on the court are much different than his perceptions. Meanwhile, Milwaukee a team that looks destined for the play offs improved to 13-3  SU in its last 16 games with a 103-100 road victory against a strong  Boston Celtics on Wednesday, and Im betting this tilt we be like a walk in the park after playing a superior side last time out. With that said, and according to my own matchup stats the Bucks are the far superior team in a head to head matchup, and I'm recommending we lay the lumber here with the young men from Wisconsin. 

Milwaukee is 5-2 in the last seven home meetings with Detroit and have crushed them by DDs in their L/2 meetings this season. DETROIT is 0-7 ATS in road games vs. division opponents this season losing SU 22.7 ppg and 1-10 ATS L/11 off a road win, losing SU by ana verage of 15 ppg. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 1 unit reg selection

Denver after losing last time out to the red hot Portland Blazers 122-113, have dropped out of the final play off spot in the Western Conference. Its not like the Nuggets will now throw in the towel as regaining their post season status is very attainable as long as they can muster up wins. More importantly they are now under pressure to get a victory tonight vs the  inconsistent Charlotte Hornets. With that said, Im betting the Nuggets leave everything on the floor and will not easily be taken down tonight, which makes taking points a viable wagering situation. 

QUOTE: "I've been in the league a long time, and you expect the unexpected," Nuggets coach Michael Malone told the Post. "If we stop believing and letting go of the rope, it could get ugly. I didn't get that sense (Thursday). Our guys are disappointed that we had a bad home loss against New Orleans and a tough loss against a Portland team that is playing very well. We have an opportunity to get back on track." END QUOTE. I like the Nuggets drive , while I dont have the same confidence in the tired looking Hornets , a side that will most likely not make a play off appearence this season. 

DENVER is 14-4 ATS off a loss against a division rival .CHARLOTTE is 1-10 ATS L/11 in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. 

Denver Nuggets to cover  1 unit reg selection