San Antonio looked asleep at the wheel last time out vs Memphis and lost as DD chalk. Now after that embarrassing effort Im betting on this talented but inconsistent team to step up their game against a Minnesota team that is playing at a high level, but due for regression after some hard fought affairs over a short period of time. 

SAN ANTONIO is 21-8 ATS  off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more

San Antonio owns an 89-30 all-time series lead on the Timberwolves. The Spurs have won the season series against Minnesota 22 times in 30 seasons, including the last six.

SAN ANTONIO is 22-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams (SAN ANTONIO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, in November games are 49-20 ATS L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

The Billikens, who are in the midst of a season-opening six-game home stand, enter Wednesday's game 2-0 after wins against Florida Gulf Coast (89-67) and Valparaiso (81-70). The Billikens have scored 80 or more points in the first two games of the season for just the second time since the 1990s and despite it still being early on the season, look like a very viable group and one of the better ones the program has put o the floor in a while and get my support here on their own home floor.

Ford is 30-19 ATS  in all home games as the coach of SAINT LOUIS.SAINT LOUIS is 9-2 ATS  in a home game where the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.

E WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on St.Louis to cover 

CSUB (1-1) is coming off a solid start to the season after earning a 50-point win in its regular-season opener and playing a thrilling matchup against South Dakota State. While Bakersfield fell against the Jackrabbits in double overtime, the `Runners put up a strong showing, especially on the offensive end and definitely have earned my respect on a DD dog line.Through the first week of the season, CSUB ranks 11th among all NCAA Division I schools with an average of 97.0 points per game . When looking at underdogs like this you have to feel confident that they have the ability to be competitive and if all else fails have the capability to give us a back door cover. Bakersfield passes with flying colors. 

N IOWA is 5-14 ATS  after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

Barnes is 20-8 ATS  after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more shots than opponent in all games he has coached since 1997.

Take the points with CS Bakersfield 

This will be a back to back for the Sixers and their 3rd game and 4 nights and  they will now be on tired legs vs a up trending Orlando team that is slowly getting back into a culture of winning.  Advantage Orlando. 

PHILADELPHIA is 11-25 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off 2 no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are just 7-24 L/23 seasons for a 75% SU conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

Quinnipiac went 11-7 in MAAC play during the regular season, earning the No. 3 seed in the league's postseason tournament at the Times Union Center in Albany, N.Y.  and Im betting they are improved this season, and matchup well vs Brown on the road here tonight.Brown was picked No. 5 in the Ivy League Preseason Men's Basketball Poll.

QUINNIPIAC is 17-7 ATS  as a road underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons and is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons.

BROWN is 4-14 ATS L/18 in a home game where the total is 140 to 144.5.

Play on Quinnipiac to cover 

  These teams are not performing at an optimal level right now  and I dont believe that Pennsylvania should be this be a favorite in a rivalry game  . La  Salle despite of still being in a rebuilding mode  has the athletes to keep this close . The visitor is 9-1-2 ATS last 12 in this series and Im betting on LaSalle to cover.

Play on LaSalle to cover 

Villanova (1-0) Im betting are going to have their hands full  with a balanced Ohio State(2-0) attack that is extremely under rated. Both these teams have looked good but both have  shown some early seasons inefficiencies, but tonight I expect home court advantage to buoy the Buckeyes.

Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Play on Ohio State to cover 

Sacramento is playing pretty good ball of late,  and are well rested, but an injury to starting point guard, De'Aaron Fox has caused what Im betting is an over reaction on the line giving us value with the home dog. Im betting veteran backup Cory Joseph will do just fine filling in tonight and give the Kings an opportunity for a win and more importantly cover  for the 4th time in their L/5 games. 

SACRAMENTO is 20-9 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Note: NBA Teams are 0-12 ATS /SU as a road dog off a win as a favorite in which they had overtime (Portland ended a 4 game losing streak with a OT win vs Atlanta last time out)

The Kings are 18-1 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win as a favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.

Play on the Sacramento Kings 

 CS Northrdige  has given up 87-plus points in consecutive tilts , and look ripe to get ravaged by the Pepperdine Waves. 

CS-NORTHRIDGE is 1-8 ATS  after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.

Pepperdine to cover 

The Nets enter this road game against the Jazz having covered at a 15-6 ATS rate  in their last 21 vs. Western Conference and are  13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Jazz on tired legs after playing last night and are vulnerable here vs this type of uptempo side.

BROOKLYN is 27-12 ATS  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 3 seasons

The Nets are 23-3-1 ATS L/27 on the road with less than two days rest off a game as a dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.

NBA Teams like the Jazz  are 0-14 ATS L/14 with less than two days rest off a win in which they had at least 5 turnovers less than their season-to-date average.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - in non-conference games, off a road win by 10 points or more are 44-85 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

 After Long Beach State won its home opener for the ninth straight season, the Beach will now return to the road to take on PAC 12 opponent Stanford. This is a very young Long Beach State team, but they have enough pure talent to stay competitive here tonight. 

Long Beach State  to cover 

at Moda Center - Portland, OR  

Memphis’ No. 1 recruiting class  will have their hands full with an experienced Oregon backcourt . Lots of talent but a lack of experience will be the Tigers demise in this spot.

OREGON is 8-1 ATS  in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.Altman is 9-1 ATS  in road games after a game with 24 or more assists in all games he has coached which was the case in a DD beat down of Boise State last time out. 

CBB Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OREGON) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a combined score of 165 points or more are 54-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oregon to cover 

North Texas   Mean Green returns three under rated  starters: Gibson, Roosevelt and Zachary Simmons. Coach McCasland  and must be respected here as underdogs vs a SEC group from Arkansas. Despite of the discrepancies on paper this program must not be underestimated in their ability to cover.  Note:  Rebounding has been a key point of emphasis for the Mean Green this season who during the offseason added considerable size. In a hostile environment , UNT matched the nationally ranked Rams last time out on the boards as each team grabbed 31.UNT turned its 12 offensive rebounds into 16 points while VCU who also grabbed 12 offensive rebounds could only muster up seven second-chance points. Arkansas is going to have their hands full here tonight. 

N TEXAS is 8-1 ATS  as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

N.Texas  to cover 

Oklahoma City is thundering into top form offensively of late, and as result of their decent Fg conversion rate and uptick in pace have scored 112, 1114, and 119 respectively, with all three going over as their D gets looser allowing 121, 108 , and 121 points. Tonight Im betting on that current form to continue which will force a capable Indiana side  that is in top form to push forward offensively and upping their pace and  gaining on a recent output of 120, 121, 112, 109 points  in their L/4 with 3 of those 4 games eclipsing the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 40-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Indiana has been playing some very good basketball of late, winning, 6 of their L/7 games, but are now on tired legs and prepare to play their 5th game in 8 days. With Oklahoma City beginning to score on a more consistent rate of late, are viable opponents here on this line.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Teams like the Pacers are 1-18-1 ATS L/20 (2-18 SU) with less than two days rest off a win as a dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. 

NBA Teams are 1-14 ATS /SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a win in a road game in which they had 30+ assists.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 

Davidson last at Auburn last time out, failing to live up their early season, hype. After watching parts of that game Im betting there is work be done in Wildcat land and living on reputation alone will not get done. I know Charlotte does not inspire bettors , but getting 10 plus points here on home court according to my projections makes for a viable underdog call. 

DAVIDSON is 15-30 ATS L/45 in road games after playing a game as a road underdog.  

Charlotte  to cover 

The home team has won every game in the all-time series and Im betting Marist here on their own home floor gets the job done again.

Marist won their first game on the road as underdogs last time out, and have been good bets in the past under these perimeters going  18-7 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog .

Play on Marist to cover 

American was picked third in the Patriot League Preseason Coaches Poll and are a up trending under rated team getting points. AU is off to a 0-2 start after losses at Siena and against William & Mary, but according to my early season head to head matchup power rankings matchup well vs George Washington. 

Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Play on American to cover 

Xavier lost 71-56 in Columbia, Mo. last season, and now have revenge on board. Both teams are 2-0 but home court advantage and pay back with a motivated group will be key to a cover for us here today behind what I bet is an improved interior D. XAVIER is 13-3 ATS L/16  in home games off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. 

Play on Xavier to cover 

A win on Tuesday would move UMass to 3-0 on the young season, its best start since the 2015-16 campaign and Im betting they get it. Tuesday will be UMass' second of three games this season against in-state opponents like Northeastern. Since the 2011-12 season, the Minutemen are 15-4 (.789) against teams from Massachusetts.

Play on Umass to cover

 When Pitt plays Robert Morris on Tuesday night, serving as the first guest in the Colonials’ new home, Jeff Capel knows what to expect.

“The place will be jumping,” Pitt’s coach said.

This is the grand opening of the new 45 million dollar facility for Robert Morris so Im betting on them stepping up their game and getting us the cover . 

Pittsburgh is off a  loss to Nicholls State, 75-70, on Saturday, and showed me their a long way from prime time. 

PITTSBURGH is 2-9 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS  in road games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.

Robert Morris to cover 

Pacific faces Hawaii in an early season matchup. Pacific blew out Florida A&M by 22 in its last outing. Hawaii lost 81-75 loss at home against South Dakota in its most recent game. Pacifc had a much easier time than Hawaii and will be fresher, after Hawaii worked hard in loss to South Dakota. Advantage Pacific.

Warriors are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. West Coast.Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Stoudamire is 10-2 ATS in a road game where the total is 130 to 139.5 as the coach of PACIFIC. 

Play on Pacific to cover 

  The Jazz are off a hard fought battle vs Milwaukee last time out(103-100), and subsequent win, and will be in a bit of an emotional letdown state here in Golden State , which Im betting sees them set an even slower pace than usual ( Utah ranks 1st in pace in the NBA). The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12  since Apr 20, 2019 going under by more than 17 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 198.1 ppg, with none of the games, eclipsing this current listed total. Also The Jazz are  0-5 L/5 UNDER  on the road with a combined average of 193.4 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile Golden State prepares to play their 4th game in 6 nights, which includes 3 straight road games,  and will now also be on tired legs and happy to also set a slower pace.

UTAH is 16-4 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.4 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 45-19 UNDER L/5seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Utah Jazz enter this game off a big home win vs the Milwaukee Bucks last time out, and Im betting they will now be in a letdown situation. I know Golden State is also in a funk, and on tired legs , but in a game that will be fairly slow paced and quite probably lower scoring, a 9 point spread for advantage players looks like a viable investment option.The Jazz are 0-4 ATS /1-3 SU L/4 on the road.the lone win came by a 1 point margin vs the Suns. 

NBA Road teams (UTAH) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 41% or less on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 38-83 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

Boston enters this game of an upset underdog win on the road vs the San Antonio Spurs last time out by a 135-115 count  for their 7th straight win. They are currently in top form and a tough opponent for any team whether it is at home or on the road . Note: BOSTON is 13-2 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Home favorites  (BOSTON) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 31-1 SU L/23 seasons with  a + 13.7 ppg diff. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Minnesota lost in a hard fought OT  game last night to Denver and will now be on tired legs and a letdown spot. Advantage Detroit Pistons with  two days rest. 

Favorite is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.

The Pistons are 11-0 ATS /SU when they won 4+ straight meetings vs current opponent.

The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS SU  as a dog after they scored fewer than 10 fast break points last game.

Play on Detroit to cover 

Towson looks to have a special group this season, and  leads the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) in scoring defense (44.5), field goal percentage defense (31.6), 3-point field goal percentage defense (21.1), rebounding (26.0), blocked shots (4.5), steals (13.0), scoring margin (+41.5), rebounding margin (+15.0) and turnover margin (+11.0).Towson is 2-0 for the first time since 2016 and get my support here vs Kent State.Towson is averaging 16 assists in its two games.The Tigers have scored 40 points in three consecutive halves.The Tigers averaged 1.351 points per possession against Bryn Athyn. Gibson has scored 24.2 percent of Towson's 95 bench points.

Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Golden Flashes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.

KENT ST is 0-7 ATS  at road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Towson to cover

The defending champion Toronto Raptors take on the   Lakers in Los Angeles on Sunday short handed with injuries. Two of their top performers went down with injuries in the club's win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday.Guard Kyle Lowry, the Raptors' second-leading scorer at 21.8 points per game, sustained a fracture in his left thumb in the first quarter, and forward Serge Ibaka went down with a severe right ankle sprain in the second quarter. Considering this , Im betting their flow will be disrupted, and knowing that they cant run and gun with the explosive Lakers tonight, a more defensive physical posture will be implemented by the coaching staff which will help keep this tilt on the lower side of this total. 

NBA team (LA LAKERS/TORONTO) - in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better), on Sunday games are 40-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Nuggets' looked impressive last time out vs a top tier  Philadelphia 76ers club. They came back in  spectacular fashion as they erased a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to take a 100-97 victory and improve to 6-2 for the season.This is a top quality team that matches up very well vs a up trending but not quite ready prime time Minnesota side. 

Nuggets are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Minnesota.

Timberwolves are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Timberwolves are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

 Central Michigan has 3 returning starters while Miss Valley State has no returning starters. MVS lost their first two games, by landslide scores to Iowa State (110-74) and Utah (143-49). MISS VALLEY ST is 1-9 ATS  after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half . Meanwhile,Central Michigan smashed MICHIGAN-DEARBORN by a 102-62 count in their opener. Davis is 16-3 ATS after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of C MICHIGAN. Bottom line: While I do not expect a record setting 94 point margin of victory  like the Utes layed down on the Delta Devils, but  I do  like Central Michigan to dominate  behind a very well balanced offense  that ranks 31st in offensive efficiency and a defence that works hard to get better. Mississippi Valley State ranks 346th in defensive efficiency since last season and rank 274th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.208). The Chippewas rank 45th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.190). Advantage Central Michigan. 

CBB Road underdogs of 20 or more points (MISS VALLEY ST) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a combined score of 175 points or more are 7-29 ATS L/22 seasons for go against conversion rate of 81% with the average ppg diff clicking in at 34.8 ppg.

Play on Central Michigan to cover 

Coming off a 71-57 win over Fresno State in their season opener, No. 15 Oregon draws another Mountain West Conference opponent at home on Saturday when it faces the Boise State Broncos in Eugene, Ore. This time around Im betting Oregon will have a much tougher time getting a win and more importantly a cover vs a Boise State team that  is coming off a 126-49 win over NAIA Life Pacific on Tuesday. The 126 points represent a single-game school record, as is the 77-point margin of victory. Rice is 46-22 ATS after allowing 60 points or less as the coach of BOISE ST.

The Broncos are 2-8 all-time against the Ducks, but have won two of the last five meetings.

Play on Boise State to cover 

at Sanford Pentagon - Sioux Falls, SDOklahoma has been dominant in non-conference play in recent seasons, boasting a combined 23-3 record in its last 26 non-league regular-season games. In non-conference play since 2017-18, Oklahoma is 9-3 against major conference schools (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC) and 12-3 in games played away from Norman. 

Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.Golden Gophers are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 vs. Big 12.Oklahoma is 16-5-1 ATS L/21 vs non conference oppositon.

 Play on Oklahoma Sooners to cover 

New Orleans is off a loss last night against the Toronto Raptors and will not be in any shape to play defence, tonight against the Hornets something thats been an issue for them all season long, as they allow the worst ppf average in the league ( 124 ppg) behind the 5th best offence ( 117.4 ppg) and 3rd ranked pace. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 23rd in ppg, allowed and 24th in defensive rating and will have to open here tonight against this type of wide open team if they hope to notch a win. Note: The Pelicans are 16-0-1 OVER L/17 with less than two days rest coming off a loss with the average combined score clicking in at 250.1 ppg. Every game during this extensive trend run have all eclipsed the current high total. NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 OVER  in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 240 ppg scored. Over is 11-5 in Pelicans last 16 games playing on 0 days rest.ver is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

Play OVER 

 St.Joh's under HC Mike Anderson looks tenacious as was evident when the  Red Storm smashed  Mercer in their home opener by a  109-79 count .The Red Storm high pressured attack can cause teams to break down quickly especially a side like Central Connecticut that  ranked 264th in offensive turnover percentage last season. 

 Central Connecticut State is a hoops program in a rebuild mode as  head coach Donyell Marshall  trys to replace four   starters from last season’s  11 win squad.It must be noted the Blue Devils ranked 301st in offensive efficiency and 313th in defensive efficiency last season and could find it hard to get out of their own way here this afternoon vs an explosive side on their own home floor here Carnesecca Arena. This is an easy lay for me.

Blue Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.Blue Devils are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss.Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.

Red Storm are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.Red Storm are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Play on St.Johns to cover 

Public drilling this line with high expectations from the media for USC, and the perception of Portland being a lower tier teams from an inferior conference. The Pilots run with a small lineup, with their tallest player forward Tahirou Diabate standing 6-foot-9,  but have an edge here on a slightly bloated line. 

Pilots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Pilots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.Pilots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Trojans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Trojans are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.

Play on Portland to cover 

 at Stan Sheriff Center - Honolulu, HI

It will be the season opener for South Dakota, so may they well be rusty.   Pacific already won their first game of the season behind an experienced group of retuning players and should be a hand full for South Dakota tonight. 

Play on Pacific to cover 

 Reigning NBA Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks visit Salt Lake City to take on Utah tonight. The public is loving the Bucks, but are greatly underestimating the tenacity of the Jazz, against a team on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights on the road and in the high altitude of Salt Lake city. Advantage Utah. Take the points.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 26-5 SU L/23 seasons for a 84% conversion rate .

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 4-22 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

The burn of losing a home opener for the first time in 17 years stung for Grand Canyon last time out. I believe that this usually well coached group got looking ahead to this this tilt with Illinois. Illinois is the first Power Five visitor to GCU Arena since the Lopes gave Louisville a scare three years ago.

QUOTE:"Illinois is a tough team but we'll be ready for it, a lot more ready than we were Tuesday, that's for sure," Jenkins said.

"I was talking to my teammates and saying, 'What's done is done.' We can erase all of that by going and winning that game Friday. That's a big game and a big team. It's a tough task but I know we're more than capable of beating them. END QUOTE:

Grand Canyon on their own home floor will be a formidable pesky opponent for Illinois and I recommend we take the points. 

Fighting Illini are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Antelopes are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on Grand Canyon to cover 

The Toronto Raptors and the New Orleans Pelicans opened the season against each other nearly three weeks ago.with the Raptors taking a  130-122 victory  in overtime . Since than both have taken part in some high scoring games  which in some ways is skewing this total to the high side, which offers value for under bettors such as ourselves. ( It it was not for OT the above mentioned tilt would have stayed under the total)

 Gentry is 36-19 OVER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of NEW ORLEANs with a combined average of 219.1 ppg scored. 

The Raptors have not eclipsed the total in their L/7 as a road favorite with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 50-9 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Northeastern won their opener by a 72-67 count  vs Boston U while Harvard won their opening tilt by a 84-27 count vs MIT. Both teams modus operandi is based on a solid D, and a methodical pace, which Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt tonight that remains on the low side of the total. 

Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 overall.Under is 7-2 in Huskies last 9 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-2 in Huskies last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-0 in Huskies last 7 home games. Amaker is 20-9 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better as the coach of HARVARD with a combined average of 133.6 ppg going on the board.HARVARD is 24-11 UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997 with a combined average of 131.1 ppg going on the board.HARVARD iin their L/15 after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 133.1 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

The desperate  Orlando Magic return home to Amway Center on Friday looking to end a four-game losing streak vs a Memphis side that they matchup well against.ORLANDO is 9-1 ATS  when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +15.8 ppg. 

The Magic are 9-0 SU/ 7-2 ATS  L/9 as a home favorite.

Play on the Magic to cover 

Alumni Hall - Annapolis, MD

 A top tier matchup at the  Veterans Classic features No. 24 Auburn vs. Davidson. Two teams that my early season power rankings suggest are very evenly matched .Auburn is down a bit this season after  losing three key starters from last years final four group which accounts for  42 points per game of scoring and filling those sharp shooting spots will extremely difficult. Meanwhile,   Davidson is very experienced as they return all five starters from last season 24 victory team that will Im betting take advantage of the Tigers inexperienced back court. 

McKillop is 74-40 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DAVIDSON.

Play on Davidson to cover 

VETERANS CLASSIC - Alumni Hall - Annapolis, MD

The Wildcats return all five starters from a 24-10 club that finished second in the Atlantic 10 with a 14-4 conference record last season. This team can really light it up in cohesive fashion, and tonight their going to play to Auburns speed and possibly beat them at their own game in a tilt I have pegged to go over the total. 

Davidson will be playing its season opener after running past Glenville State 102-94 in an exhibition.

Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 overall.Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 neutral site games.Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 non-conference games.

AUBURN is 15-5 OVER  when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.2 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

The Spurs have dropped three of their past four, including Tuesday's 108-100 setback in Atlanta and because of this we have a decent recency bias to bet into here with the desperate home chalk. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City have won two in a row and getting some media accolades on a small sample size. Truth is at least from my perspective , is that despite of the Thunders hard work and recent positive results, thye are still over matched here according to my power rankings which take into account variables  media polling numbers don't such as matchup discrepancies based on systems. With that said, Im betting on the Spurs to come out here with a top tier effort on their way to a win and cover for the 5th straight time at home in this series.Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

SAN ANTONIO is 17-5 ATS  in home games against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Donovan is 8-22 ATS  in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 48-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

Boston is off a 119-113 win vs Cleveland last time out, in a high shooting percentage tilt for the Celtics. Note: BOSTON is 12-23 ATS after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Stevens is 5-16 ATS  after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better as the coach of BOSTON. Meanwhile, Charlotte has won 3 straight , and are more than capable of hanging tough against a Celtics side playing their 3rd straight road game in 5 nights and on tired legs. 

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 78-125 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover (LATE STEAM)

Early season action will have defences in better from than shooters. This is strong instate rivalry that should be hard fought, which will dictate a slower, more physical affair that stays on the low side of the total. 

Under is 9-1 in Blazers last 10 vs. Sun Belt.Under is 17-7-1 in Blazers last 25 Thursday games.Under is 51-25-2 in Blazers last 78 non-conference games.

 Under is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 overall.

Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.

UAB is 50-30 UNDER  as a road favorite or pick since 1997 with a combined average `of 137.1 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

The Jazz have lost two straight both on the road, but still look lie a formidable NBA team, and now on two days rest  will be prepared to bounce back here on home court vs a Philadelphia 76ers group playing their 3rd  road game in 5 nights , Note: Jazz are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up loss.

The Jazz are also 12-0 ATS/SU at home off a road game in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field and  are 7-0 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick off a 10+ loss as a road dog facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, playing with 2 days rest are 48-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Utah Jazz to cover 

 Syracuse  is being highly touted as usual under the tut-ledge of Jim Boheim, but he has his work cut out for him early on this  season after  losing four starters from last years team ,  while  also adding a five-player freshman class.  This is now a rebuilding program, with some top tier  talent but a great deal of inexperience , which is never great when going against a defending champion such as Virginia.  Tonight I am expecting Virginias extremely organized  and tenacious pack line D, to dominate and to continue the recent string of Cavalier owner ship over the Orange. Note:  Virginia has won three in a row vs Syracuse,  which includes their last two visits to the Carrier Dome by an average of 20.5 points.

VIRGINIA is 10-1 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons wit the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.4 ppg. and s 9-1 ATS  as a road favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons.

Virginia to cover 

According to my power rankings the Toronto Raptors matchup well vs the Sacramento Kings , and with the added home court advantage look like very viable favorites here tonight. 

Torontos SRS: ranks 9th in the NBA ( 4.98) vs Sacramento's 27th ranking ( -7.52). SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Advantage Raptors 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - excellent free throw shooting team (79%or better) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), poor ball handling team (16.5 or more  TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 25-2 SU 23 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.9 ppg which makes this a via-able ATS situation. 

Toronto Raptors to cover 

Indiana is exhausted as they prepare to play their 3rd game in 4 nights, and are off a 122-120 OT loss in Memphis last night. Tonight playing defence could easily become an issue on tired legs  in a game I have pegged to be a wide open affair vs a Washington side, that is ranked 26th in ppg allowed on  D, and 5th in ppg on offence and 8th in pace. 

Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-1 in Wizards last 9 vs. NBA Central.

Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.

WASHINGTON is 30-16 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Both these teams struggled last season, greatly, and are pretty evenly matched according to my projections as this season begins thus giving us value with the underdog here.McNeese, which lost 13 of its last 17 regular-season games including its last three, will put out a different roster compared to last season. The group they now have is under rated.

Take the points with McNeese State to cover 

CHAMPIONS CLASSIC - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY 

Tonight’s No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Kentucky has a bit of a tainted public leaning totals number attached to it. ( The public loves to bang the over on marquee games) My number on this total is closer to 134 to 136, thus according to my projections we have value to the under. Note: Both teams have been hit with the injury bug, and because of personnel improvisations Im betting a more muted flow and pace which directly effect this total to the under.  

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - good rebounding team from last season - outrebounded opponents by 4+ per game, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Los Angeles has reeled off five straight victories since dropping the season opener against their intra-city rival Los Angeles Clippers behind super stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and Im betting will have an above average output offensively today vs a struggling Chicago Bulls team allowing an average of 110.3 ppg. Meanwhile, LAL has been allowing 108 ppg on the road this season, and tonight I look for the chasing Bulls to aggressively open up to keep track on the scoreboard, which will result in combined score that eclipses this total. 

Play OVER 

Milwaukee might be the public darling here but from a matchup perspective Minnesota is being highly under rated.(The Timberwolves will once again be without their star center Towns when they host Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday) But this is a team that plays deeper and more systematically than past versions of the Wolves and can withstand his absence as was evident when they took out the Washington Wizards last time out. With Milwaukee off a hard fought emotional win vs the Raptors last time out, Im betting they are more vulnerable here than the linesmakers and public might anticipate. 

Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Timberwolves are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

NBA Favorites (MILWAUKEE) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 71-118 L/23 seasons for a go against  63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover 

The Wizards enter this game against the Pistons having lost three straight while giving up an average of 138 points. Washington is ranked 28th in ppg allowed, and 3rd and pace and 7th in offence. The Wizards come at you in run and gun fashion, and essentially force you into opening up. Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons are currently ranked 21st in ppg allowed, and 24th in defensive efficiency, and if they are going to win they have to up their17th ranked pace here tonight in a game I have pegged to fly over the total. 

Over is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 road games.Over is 7-1 in Pistons last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 7-3 in Pistons last 10 overall.

Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 home games.Over is 8-0 in Wizards last 8 vs. NBA Central.Over is 8-1 in Wizards last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 7-2 in Wizards last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 21-7 in Wizards last 28 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 17-6 in Wizards last 23 games following a straight up loss.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 25-2 OVER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Utah has the best D in the league so far this season ranking No.1 in ppg allowed at 94 ppg, and rank 28th in pace and 27th in ppg scored at 101. Its obvious what their formula for success is and Im betting on nothing changing tonight . Meanwhile, we all know about the Clippers and super star Kawhi Leonard, but Utah can slow down the most potent of teams , and isolate them in transition , which Im betting will be the case again tonight. With that said, Im betting a combined score that fails to eclipse this total. 

Utahs L/9 games dating back to last season, have gone under the total with the combined average score of 196.2 ppg going on the board.

NBA team (UTAH/LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), first half of the season are 102-47 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-12 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 84-44 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Jazz are a team that matches up well against a side like the Clippers and already proved it once this season, in a 110-96 victory vs the Clippers on Oct. 30 in Utah. I know Kawhi Leonard was out that night because of load management , but despite of  the super stars huge efforts this season, could find the going tough vs a team that knows how to control pace and muck things up which effects opposition flow. According to SRS equations, the Jazz are the superior team at this point on the season. Utah 6:25 SRS ranked 7th in the league vs Clippers 5.21 SRS, ranked 9th in the league. ( SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule.)

Jazz are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in L.A..Jazz are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

UTAH is 23-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.( Utah lost a 102-101 decision to the  Sacramento Kings on Nov.1 and now with some rest should be ready to rebound)

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a good 3PT defense (33% or less), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 7-27 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Two teams that are struggling to start their season go head to head tonight .Both  entered Saturday tied for 27th in the NBA in assists per game (19.3). The Sacramento Kings issues have predicated on their lack of scoring consistency from downtown and at the charity stripe. Meanwhile, the Knicks the Kings hosts tonight, are ranked 28th in ppg on offence, and 27th slowest in pace, and depend on a hardcore work ethic to try to stay competitive. Both teams current structural inconsistencies make for a rocky flow, and Im betting tonight that will translate into a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total.

The Knicks have gone under in 8 of their L/9 dating back to last season, with a combined average score of 206.9 ppg scored, and have gone under 4 straight times at home, with the with a combined average of 210.7 ppg scored.

NEW YORK is 15-4 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.5 ppg going on the board.NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - pathetic team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or better on the season, poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game are 28-8 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Joel Embiid is expected to miss tonight game for Philadelphia because of suspension, but the way the Sixers are built that wont slow down their offense or pace here this evening. Note: The Sixers are ranked 3rd in PACE this season (107.0). Also PORTLAND in their L/41 games  when the total is 210 to 222 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 233 ppg go on the board. Full steam ahead here in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 OVER  after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored.

NBA  team (PORTLAND) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43%or less on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 113-62 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Nets enter this game against the Pistons off a hard fought win vs the Houston Rockets last night. The Nets hosts tonight the Pistons also played last night in a loss, but the difference maker for this matchup comes via home court advantage and slightly fresher legs of the Pistons, vs a Nets team playing their 3rd game in 3 nights.Note: Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are just 66-131 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Dating back 5 seasons, teams like the Brooklyn Nets with a line between 3 to -3 off no rest & won their previous game as a dog by a margin less then 30 pts against an opponent who had 50 or more points in the paint are 0-23 ATS/ SU.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Pelicans are off an upset win last time out vs Denver by a 122-107 count as 4 point home dogs. Note: NEW ORLEANS is 2-15 ATS L/17 off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog . The Pelicans have been running a full throttle take no prisoners game plan so far this season, and after that draining effort last time out Im looking for a regressionary effort today in Oklahoma City.

Pelicans are also  0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Meanwhile, the well rested Thunder are off a 102-99 loss last time out to Portland, but have bounced back well in the recent  past positing a  4-0 ATS record  in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 2 days rest.

We also have a interesting NBA trend anomaly attached to this tilt that favors the Thunder: NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - poor ball handling team - committing 16 or more turnovers/game, on Saturday games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The Lakers are full of veteran talent, but  they are a little banged up right now with key cog Anthony Davis at less than 100% with a nagging shoulder injury. Dallas meanwhile, despite of being young is healthy right now and deserve respect on their own home court. 

The Lakers  dating back to last season are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Mavericks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Lakers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Dallas.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Houston and the Washington Wizards set a record with 317 combined points in a tilt that was decided by one point as the Rockets snatched  a 159-158 win in that game. Im now expecting some regression on the part of the Rockets, after that energy draining effort. There are also some troubling numbers attached to the Rockets last effort most notably being that they  allowed Washington to shoot 62.6 percent from the floor. Look for Kyrie Irving and company to thrive in this spot play. 

HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.

Brooklyn has win and covered 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series. Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. 

Rockets are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings

Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.Nets are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. Western Conference.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - off 2 no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 7-23 L/23 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites (HOUSTON) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 66-111 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with Brooklyn to cover 

The Milwaukee matchup is the middle game of a set of three in four nights at Orlando. Im betting the Bucks tired legs play an integral part in us getting a cover here tonight with the home dog. 

Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Bucks are 4-9-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Orlando

NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 11-35 ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

Cleveland took out the  Chicago Bulls 117-111 this past Wednesday. The win marked Cleveland's third consecutive game with an uptick in its scoring, from 85 in the opener to 110 vs. Indiana then 112 in a loss at the Milwaukee Bucks. There is upward offensive momentum at play here tonight in my over call on this tilt.  Meanwhile, Indiana (1-3) concluded a three-game road swing on Wednesday, scoring its first win of the 2019-20 season, 118-108 at the Brooklyn Nets. Both sides have shown slower paces so far this season, but their defensive weaknesses , and current uptrends offensively make this a solid over wager. 

The Cavaliers are 7-2 OVER as a road dog with a combined average of 228.2 ppg scored.

Anomaly or not its interesting to note that CLEVELAND is 9-1 OVER  in road games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored.

San Antonio has been off since beating the visiting Portland Trail Blazers on Monday to improve to 3-0 and are very fresh for this tilt vs the Clippers and should be very ready to press the action vs a LA Clippers side they matchup well against. With a rested Kawhi Leonard in the Clippers lineup they will also be ready to reciprocate in a what Im betting will be a run and gun affair. 

The L/3 meetings here in LA have all eclipsed the total.

LA CLIPPERS are 19-6 OVER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of those 25 games clicking in at 236.6 ppg. 

SAN ANTONIO is 14-3 OVER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Jazz according to my own ratings should be -5 favs here against the public leaning Clippers. Hey I know the Clippers have the best player in the league Kawhi Leonard in their their lineup and their currently playing very good hoops, but Utah is no pushover. Utah has the second-lowest opponent expected eFG% in the league and their  defense is tops in the league  allowing just 92 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers are 24th on D under the same parameters. With that said, Im going directly against the public and the Clippers and agreeing with the market forces that suggest Utah has an edge.

Utah is 3-0 SU L/3 at home in this series.

NBA Favorites (UTAH) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 106-61 ATS L/23 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

Kyrie Irving is playing at an extremely high level right of the game this season for his new team the  Brooklyn Nets. However, I am expecting a natural letdown regression offensively , and for the Nets nasty defensive play to burden them against a Indiana side  that are capable of busting out of an early season scoring slump. It must be noted that despite of Kyrie Irving circus the Nets needed a late  Irving's  3-pointer  Friday after blowing a 19-point lead. Two days later, the Nets held an eight-point lead with three minutes remaining and gave up a 10-2 run that forced overtime. The 1-2 Nets are down trending and may not be the solid bet the public thinks they are tonight. 

BROOKLYN is 4-14 ATS  in home games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Indiana is 3-0 SU l/3 visits to Brooklyn. 

NBA team (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 6 or more of their last 8 games are 41-16 ATS L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 

We have a huge talent disparity here in this game featuring Memphis and the LA Lakers and Im betting the rebuilding Grizzlies output will be muted, and their over all game plan will be a more  conservative one , than they have shown so far this season, knowing what they are up against. With that said, Im betting we have a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. Note : It must also be noted that there seems to be a concerted effort from the Lakers to be a all around team this season.

LAL are ranked 3rd in ppg allowed this season, and 20th in offence, behind the 28th ranked pace. 

The Lakers are 2-7 L/9 as a home favorite with the average combined score clicking in at 214.2 ppg.

LA LAKERS are 21-7 UNDER  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 29-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Utah is a defence first team with a blue collar attitude, and Im betting that will be on full display here this evening in Phoenix. Its early in the season but the Jazz are ranked first in defence allowing 90.3 ppg and are ranked 27th on offence, but the tell tale tape shows them methodically operating with a 28th ranked pace, which is in part indicative of their on court  conservative philosophical mindset. Meanwhile, the Suns are ranked 12th in ppg allowed and 14th in pace and should be on tired legs and in a regressionary offensive mode, after taking part in consecutive hard fought back  forth affairs vs Denver and the LA Clippers.Add to that both teams are playing their 4th game in 6 nights and are certainly on tired legs which in turn will also effect the pace and output of this tilt to the low side of the totals number. 

Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 overall.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 Monday games.Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 games following a straight up win.

Under is 5-1 in Suns last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games following a straight up win. .Under is 16-5 in Suns last 21 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 6-2 in Suns last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Phoenix.

PHOENIX is 9-1 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.3 ppg.

UTAH is 31-13 UNDER  after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.5 ppg going on the score board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 27-4 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 36-12 UNDER 23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Jazz made a season-high 18 3-pointers and tied a franchise record with 13 threes in the first half while routing Sacramento 113-81 on Saturday, in a top tier two way game. Defence remains the mainstay of the Jazz success behind two-time reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and here tonight Im betting their top tier D will be the difference maker as they march to a conclusive win vs a exhausted Suns team that will play their 3rd game in 4 nights and that they matchup well against .Utah has taken the last seven meetings by an average of 24.1 points and one more conclusive win is on tonights agenda. 

Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 10-34 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

After the five-time defending Western Conference champion Warriors were hammered at home by the Clippers 141-122 in the season opener, Golden State coach Steve Kerr said the performance was not "a one-off." Quote:"This is the reality," Kerr said. "There's going to be nights like this this year."End Quote: And the next night like that came at Oklahoma City on Sunday as the Thunder led by as many as 41 points in rolling to a 120-92 victory.

With the league now wanting to take advantage of a great franchise that took great joy and pounding opponents mercilessly over the last few years payback by their opponents is now at hand. 

Both these teams are still without a win this season, but New Orleans according to my projections has an edge here at home laying the short lumber.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 34-3 SU L/23 seasons with the combined average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

Kyrie Irving is fitting in well to his new home in Brooklyn  and followed up a top tier  50-point performance in his season debut by highlighting a late surge in the fourth quarter of Brooklyn's 113-109 win versus the New York Knicks on Friday night. According to my early season projections, Irving and the Nets matchup well here vs Memphis and are viable road favorites of 5 points or less.

MEMPHIS is 21-39 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.BROOKLYN is 53-32 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons .

Nets are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis. Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

The Warriors (0-1) and Thunder (0-2) are both still looking for their first wins. Golden State  lost  a 141-122 confrontation to the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma took season-opening losses at Utah and at home against Washington . Both rosters are vastly different from last season, but after watching some of key action from these games, I like the Thunder a little more at this point of the season, and believe they have an edge here on on home court this afternoon. 

The Warriors are 0-5 ATS L/5 as a favorite. Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 28-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The Suns will play host to the Clippers on Saturday in their second game without key starter  Ayton, and will miss his point production, but overall, this Im betting helps their defence. Ayton has never been known for his defensive play and is also known as a defensive liability.  Add to that the Suns, played last night and will be on tired legs after they lost l in OT by a 108-107 count in the high altitude of  Denver which in itself is exhausting .  So here in LA this evening, Im looking for a tempered effort from the Suns, against what is an explosive Clippers team. This Im betting leads to a much lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers expect. Note: HC Williams in 213 career games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached has seen a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Last time out Philadelphia showed their defensive abilities when they limited Boston  to 36.7 percent shooting overall and 26.9 percent from 3-point range, and are more than capable of a shut down performance here vs Detroit on the road . Meanwhile the Motown Pistons, are off dropping their home opener to Atlanta 117-100 as chalk. There was a lack of good defence, and offence in that tilt, and HC Casey was particularly unhappy with the Pistons D, and tonight Im betting he sets out to correct that. QUOTE:"Our defense (Thursday) was porous and you put that along with bad shooting in the second half, that's a bad recipe," coach Dwane Casey said. END QUOTE.

DETROIT is 17-6 UNDER off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons are with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored. 

76ers- Joel Embiid is "?" Saturday vs Detroit ( Ankle )

Pistons -Blake Griffin is out indefinitely ( Hamstring )

Play on the UNDER 

Butler, Miami's biggest offseason acquisition, missed Wednesday's season-opening win for the birth of his daughter and will miss Saturday's game against the Bucks and as a result  will effectively curtail the Heats offensive output. The Heats L/7 road games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 216 ppg go on the board.

The Heats usual motus operandi is based on playing staunch D which will be in effect here, vs the explosive Milwaukee Bucks.

Long term historical trend: MIAMI is 563-469 L/1031 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 189.1 ppg scored over a very extensive period of time.MIAMI is 103-74 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points with a combined average of 186.8 ppg going on the board.

Play on the UNDER 

This is the NBAs version of the battle of NY, and it should be a good one, between the revamped NY Knicks and the up trending Brooklyn Nets. With Brooklyn off a heart breaking 127-126 OT loss last time out, Im betting they will be less energetic than the Knicks and easily suffering an emotional letdown. What Im betting here is the Knicks will play with passion and will not go down without a fight and advantageous line.

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Both Minnesota and Charlotte are coming off one point victories in their first games of the season.Minnesota won 127-126 in overtime against the Brooklyn Nets in New York while, the Hornets overcame a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit Wednesday in a 126-125 victory against the visiting Chicago Bulls. Im betting the Wolves game was more strenuous than the Hornets game, and they will be fresher and ready to compete here on their own home floor as underdogs. Note:MINNESOTA is 3-14 ATS  in road games after a combined score of 235 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Charlotte is 2-0 in the 2 most recent games here and 12-3 SU  L/15 as a host in this series and get my support to cover in this spot play.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Both teams will take the court with revenge motivation: the Clippers on an opponent that ended their season last April; the Warriors on Leonard, who denied Golden State a three-peat while leading the Toronto Raptors to the championship in June. With that said,Im expecting a spirited back and forth game with a boatload full of points going on the board. 

 Over is 7-2 L/9 meetings at Golden State.

Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a ATS win.Over is 10-1 in Clippers last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 6-2 in Clippers last 8 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 road games.Over is 12-5 in Clippers last 17 Thursday games.Over is 14-6 in Clippers last 20 overall.Over is 13-6 in Clippers last 19 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 overall.Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 /WARRIORS (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, vs. division opponents are 28-13 OVER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

The Suns HC Williams has implemented a "no-stick" offensive philosophy that asks players to pass, dribble or shoot in five-tenths of a second. Rubio, Booker, Saric, re-signed free agent Kelly Oubre Jr. and Ayton are the expected starters , as he has the type of lineup that can implement his philosophy fully. I know how bad the Suns have been over the last few seasons, but Im betting on them to up trend. Tonight against a Sacramento Kings side, that is just 1-3 in their L/4 visits here Im siding with the Suns to get us the cover. 

Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Play on the Phoenix suns to cover 

Im projecting that this big man crew of Philadelphia to really push forward here this Wednesday night in attempt to assert their standing in the East.  I also  expect a take no prisoners type of affair with alot more points going on the board than the linesmakers and public might expect. In the past Boston has been able to slow down Joel Embiid, thanks to the work of Al Horford and Aron Baynes’  , and now that both are gone, Im expecting Embiid to explode offensively and carry his team forward with maximum momentum   The revamped Celtics will have to follow suit and open up, with some offense of their own,  or be blown off the court, which Im betting helps us get over the Number. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA/BOSTON) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, vs. division opponents are 28-7 OVER L/23 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The public right out of the gate loves the over here in this Battle of LA game  based in part to the concept that  LAL super stars Davis and James will almost single hand-idly eclipse this total all by themselves.(Tongue in cheek) But Im betting the chemistry between these guys is over blown just like this total based on perceptions. Instead Im betting on Lakers sturdy D, to be key. I know the Clippers can also run and gun, but Im betting that wont be the case here tonight as they devise a game plan to slow down Davis and James and the fast break explosiveness of  Alex Caruso and Kuzma, resulting in a more tempered effort by the Clippers in transition. 

Under is 8-3 in Lakers last 11 vs. Western Conference.Under is 5-1 in Lakers last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of LA Lakers's last 19 games when playing LA Clippers.

Play on the UNDER 

There will be no Zion Williamson (knee injury) in the New Orleans lineup this Tuesday night in Toronto on opening night as the  Raptors begin the defense of their NBA championship. Because of this this we are getting a generous line to bet into with the visiting Pelicans. 

Despite of New Orleans not having Williamson in the lineup on opening night the proverbial cupboard is still not empty as top tier  veterans like Holiday and Favors, Redick still make this team a fairly formidable opponent, and with the key additions of up trending young talent like Ingram, Ball and Hart must not be discounted to be competitive vs a side that lost their key starter Kawhi Leonard to free agency in the off season and have no real individual big stars in their lineup. 

This Pelicans group has alot to prove after their super star Davis left town via trade, and especially now with Williamson down, and Im expecting them to play a big game tonight vs a side that could easily experience a championship hangover. 

Toronto is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.

 New Orleans is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road.

Road team is 23-6-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

NBA Home teams  (TORONTO) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, in non-conference games are just 49-61 SU L/5 seasons for a 44.5% win conversion rate. 

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

The Raptors have played a physical gritty style of basketball these entire play offs that keys its offence in transition and here in the NBA finals have really pressured the Golden State Warriors, much like they did vs Sixers and the Bucks . The success of the Raptors flow busting modus operandi Im betting will not change here today in a game that promises to be intense. One team looking for their first ever championship and the other a defending champion on their last legs scratching and clawing to survive. There will be fireworks, but not of the offensive kind, in a game the linesmakers are estimating to be close. 

The Raptors are 2-9-2 UNDER L/11 on the road with a combined average of 210.2 ppg scored.

Under is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 Thursday games.Under is 9-3-1 in Raptors last 13 road games.Under is 9-3-1 in Raptors last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 7-3-1 in Raptors last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 8-3 in Warriors last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less ARE 78-41 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - TOR Leads 3-1

The Raptors have played a physical gritty style of basketball these entire play offs that keys its offence in transition and here in the NBA finals have really pressured the Golden State Warriors, much like they did vs Sixers and the Bucks . The success of the Raptors flow busting modus operandi Im betting will not change here today in a game that promises to be a up North rumble. One team looking for their first ever championship and the other a defending champion on their last legs scratching and clawing to survive. There will be fireworks, but not of the offensive kind, in a game the lines-makers are estimating to be close .

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (TORONTO) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, with a winning record on the seasons are 32-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - TOR Leads 2-1

The Warriors uncharacteristically allowed 123 points in  Game 3 of this series vs the Raptors which was just  the fourth time they have allowed 120 points or more in the 2019 playoffs. In the two previous play off campaigns the Warriors allowed more than 120 points just 3 times in total, so Im betting the game 3 anomaly will not be repeated as will as a mean to the regression to the norm for the Raptors offence  after shooting the lights out in game 3 ( 40% from 3 point land, 30+ assists ). With Klay Thompson returning to the floor for game 4, the dynamic of the Dubs defence will return which HC Kerr will key on in a very important game . Also Durant will be out tonight as well, for the Warriors which has diminished their offensive firepower as compared to when he plays, so D will be very important element for Golden State to even this series. When Durant plays the Dubs average 116.5 ppg on offence and when he sits   they average 6.1 ppg less at 110.4 ppg.

In the 48 times Durant as not played because of injury or personal issues , the Total is 30-18  UNDER for a 63% conversion rate for bettors with the   staying under the total by 5.6 ppg.When Durant is not playing and Curry is in the lineup, the under is 26-15 fora 64% conversion rate for bettors   staying under the total by 5.3 ppg. 

Note:The Raptors previous to game 3  were 1-8-2 UNDER  on the road  in the post season with a combined average score of 209.8 ppg scored.

I keep hammering the under in this series, and I could drastically change my mind based on todays results. However, keep in mind  Im not being swayed by a small game 3 sample size. So lets attack the under again.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Toronto Im betting will continue to play scrappy physical ball here on the road, against the run and gun Dubs. They practiced this in both series against the Bucks and the Sixers and nothing will change tonight in Oakland.The Raptors are 1-8-2 UNDER since Apr 03, 2019 on the road with a combined average score of 209.8 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Golden State's D is very under rated and recently in these play offs held two explosive offences Portland and Houston to 99 and 94 points respectively here at home. More strong stopping capabilities Im betting will be on full display here in game 3.

 .Under is 8-2-1 in Raptors last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 7-3 in Warriors last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 13-6 in Warriors last 19 home games.

Play UNDER 

Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Game 2 - NBA Finals

The Raptors who have owned the best half court D in the postseason  did well in game 1 by focusing their attention on Curry and Thompson and with no Durant on the floor the Raptors should continue to be effective slowing down the splash brothers again. Right now the Warriors just don't have enough outlets, and the Dubs HC Kerr know s this , and being the top tier director and  game facilitator he is Im betting the  ball coach will have his  D prepared to play a more guarded transitional game that will help this score stay on the low side of the total. Also it is highly unlikely key Raptors players like Pascal Siakam will score anywhere near what they did in game one, and that the Dinos offensive output is also curtailed in a game that Im betting stays on the low side of the number. 

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Sunday games.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.

Play UNDER

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Raptors enter this game ranked 8th in points per game allowed in the league and 15th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. Both teams have a great deal of offensive talent, but both also have some gritty defensive players. During these play offs the Raptors have made teams like Milwaukee and Philadelphia look less than fluid thanks to their ability to break the flow of their opponents, and Im sure that same formula will be in place Thursday night.It must also be noted that Golden State despite of their reputation as gunslingers also have the ability to play a top tier brand of D, and that Im betting will also be on display.  With that said, Im expecting a chippy physical affair here in Toronto and a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off a home win are 37-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

The Raptors have made the Bucks look bad in the last two meetings on this series. It must be noted that Milwaukee has stayed UNDER 10 straight times with rest when they are off two double-digit ATS losses and the line is  -3 to a pick. Overall  in this series the Bucks and the Raptors have struggled offensively .In game 5 the ugliness of this series was highlighted as  Toronto went 31-of-84 from the field while the Bucks were 38-of-84. The Raptors actually made seven fewer FGs, but they came out on top because they made twelve more charity stripe conversions than the Bucks. Tonight with so much on the line, I expect this to be a very physical game that stays on the low side of the total.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 36-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Wrong or right my perception of the Raptors last win in this series vs the Bucks was an albatross event, and that the Bucks are the superior team in a bounce back situation after an embarrassing 18 point loss. It must be noted that the Bucks  lost just 7 games this season by 10 or more points . In the last  six losses, the Bucks went 6-0 ATS, covering by 12.8 points per game. Also from a league wide perspective teams like Milwaukee coming off a 10 point plus post season loss are 25-11 ATS in the followup game in the Conference Finals. In the last 14 seasons teams that have won at least two straight games entering a playoff game and are in the underdog role in their next game and it is between game 5 and 7 in a playoff series, the team on the two-game-plus winning streak is just 31-48-1 ATS.  

MILWAUKEE is 16-3 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite this season. MILWAUKEE is 10-1 ATS  off an upset loss as a road favorite this season. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 37-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 2-1

The Raptors came out in game 3 of this series in desperation mode, and played like their play off lives depended on it, and still needed double OT to get barely get by the Bucks. After playing an exhausting 7 game series with the Sixers Im betting fatigue will now be in a factor for the Raptors and that they are at a disadvantage in game 4 here in Toronto because of that. Meanwhile, the Bucks are much fresher, and very ready to take advantage of the Dinos . It must be noted that no team in the NBA was better at rebounding of a loss this season than Milwaukee as is evident by going  22-1 SU  with a +15 ppg diff and 19-4 ATS  after a loss this season covering by an average of 7.6 ppg. Milwaukee is  20-6  ATS after allowing 115 points or more in their last game with the average ppg cover diff coming  by 6 ppg. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Western Conference Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - STL Leads 3-2

The Raptors looked clumsy and less than fluent offensively in their last game vs the Bucks a OT win , and have actually been less than effective offensively for large portions of these play offs. Im betting that trend will continue tonight. The Raptors over all flow has also effected their opponents like a virus, as has been evident in this series vs the Milwaukee Bucks and the previous series vs the Philadelphia 76ers . Both the Toronto and Milwaukee   converted at less than 40% from the filed in game 3. Note: The Bucks have gone under 10 straight times when coming off a road loss in where they shot less than 40% from the field while  the Raptors  have gone under 7 straight times  in post season play after a game as chalk in which they held their opponent to under 40% shooting from the field. The Raptors are also  0-7 UNDER L/7 in the playoffs with less than two days rest off a home tilt that was tied five-plus times. 

Im expecting a fairly low scoring game here, based on the factors I have pointed out above and on my score projection of this tilt. 

Play UNDER 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0

In my betting opinion there is only one way that Portland can possibly steal at least one game in this series, and that is going balls to the walls with all out offensive attack. They have shown their ability to run and gun with the Warriors in the first half of the last two games, before looking fatigued late and eventually capitulating . Now down 3-0 in this series and in desperation mode, Im expecting the Blazers to leave everything on the floor, and to squeeze every last bit of energy they have into this game. This projected  scenario Im betting leads to a high scoring game, that eclipses this total.

PORTLAND is 8-0 OVER  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 237.3 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 12-1 OVER  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

I have not been impressed by the way the Raptors have played in the play offs overall especially the Philadelphia series, and the 2nd game of this series when they lost by 22 points. However, there is enough talent and pride with guys like Kawhi Leonard, and hardcore work ethic from key character players like Siakam to produce a top tier effort in desperation mode here at home today. Note: The L/14 seasons home favorites like the Raptors that were defeated their previous game by double digits have gone 117-79-5 ATS in the playoffs.

MILWAUKEE is 7-21 ATS L/28  off 3 or more consecutive home wins .

Milwaukee is 0-23 ATS as a rested dog when they are off a win as a home favorite in which they shot better than 25% from the arc and are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio of better than 1.50.

NBA Home favorites (TORONTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 53-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

The Bucks, in game 1 of this series showed their rust after a week off, while the Raps showed their fatigue in a  108-100 final on Wednesday. In Game 2 on Friday, the Bucks reved things up  and took a 125-103 victory to take a 2-0 series lead. Now Im betting on the Raptors and the Bucks coming out here with all guns blazing in a game that Im betting eclipses the total.

 The Bucks are 11-4 OVER L/15 on the road with a combined average of 236.9 ppg scored in those 15 tilts. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

After squandering a gigantic lead last time out vs Golden State in game 2 in this series, I can see the Blazers in a classic emotional letdown situation. When you exert that much energy and play much better than anyone anticipated and still lose, a follow up effort could easily be more muted than many expect here in game 3. I know alot of pundits point out that the Warriors are vulnerable without Durant in the lineup. However,  it must be noted that the Warriors, play well together without Durant on the court, as they are 3-0 SU/ATS this season when he is out of the lineup, covering by more than 14 points per game, with all of the tilts coming on the road. Overall Durant is has been out, of the Warriors line 14 times since he came to Oakland and 5 of those games saw Steph Murray play, and guess what the Dubs were a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in those tilts.

Kerr is 11-2 ATS in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. 

NBA team (PORTLAND) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-100 L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

 Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - MIL Leads 1-0

The Raptors starters logged a lot of minutes last time out, in game 1 of this series vs the Bucks  and were previously off a 7 game series with the Sixers . So fatigue factors come into play for the Dinos as was the case in the fourth quarter of the last game where  the Raptors were rolled over by a team that they had lead by DDs at different junctures of this matchup. Contrary to belief it takes more effort and stamina to play strong physical defence than to run and gun and wide open fashion and tonight Im betting the Raptors are forced to open up in transition because of the inability to  defend vs a fresher side . This is the lowest total the books have offered from the 5 games these teams have played this year, and the one with the most value for an OVER wager to cash.

MILWAUKEE in 49 games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored.  Toronto in their L/11 after failing to cover the spread in 3 game or more have seen a combined average score of 221.1 ppg scored.

Note: The Raptors have gone  6-0 OVER L/6 as a pup with less than two days rest after a loss in which they were ahead by double digits at some point, going over the number by an average of 23.5 ppg. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 7-0 OVER L/7 with less than two days rest off a win as chalk after a victory where they were behind by double digits, going over  the Total by an average of 20 ppg.  

NBA   teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 40-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

Golden State rolled to  a 116-94 win vs Portland in the first game of this series, and Im betting they are just getting ramped up. Portland had issues converting from the field and despite of  being on tired legs did play more efficient conservative ball like they did against Denver, but the Warriors have just to much firepower, so their efforts were muted . With that said, Im expecting this  Portland  Blazers team to man up here and play more aggressive offensive hoops behind their splash brothers Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum  vs the explosive Dubs in a game Im betting will be much higher scoring than the first game. 

Over is 26-8-1 in Trail Blazers last 36 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 11-4 in Trail Blazers last 15 games following a straight up loss.Over is 19-8 in Trail Blazers last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 11-5 in Trail Blazers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

  The Warriors are 8-0 OVER L/8  in  playoff games when they are off a home victory where they held their opposition under their season-to-date shooting percentage average by more than ten percentage points,  going over by an average of +21 ppg.   

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PORTLAND) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight game are 130-89 OVER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER