The Pistons were dealing with some fatigue issues recently but now with a couple of days rest Im betting they are ready to compete again, especially against an inconsistent side like Charlotte who according to my projections does not deserve to be this big a favorite. Note: The Pistons also have the added incentive and motivation to get revenge for  105-102 loss to the Hornets on March 11. 

DETROIT is 21-5 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. DETROIT is 14-2 ATS   off a home loss this season.( The Pistons lost last time out and have proven to be a big bounce back side to back when that happens) Pistons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.

NBA Road teams (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 114-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover

We have two top tier sides ready to do battle here tonight in Phoenix . However, one team stands out in this matchup as being superior and also being very motivated with double revenge on board and that side is the Utah Jazz who own the  leagues best  scoring margin at +9.5 PPG and 2nd best in DFG percentage. Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.

Utah Jazz own the leagues best SRS mark at 9.46 while the Phoenix Suns rank 4th at 5.77.  Note: SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

 NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 58-29 ATS L/24 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

With Irving out, the Blazers Im betting have an edge in this contest. The Nets are also on tired legs after playing last night and have not been good bets in back to back affairs. Nets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 0 days rest.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 29-5 L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PORTLAND) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 29-6 SU L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Portland to win 

The Celtics are increasing their pace and offensive aggressiveness of late and have gone over in 3 straight games, and Im betting they will press the action again and turn this into a scoring fest.

The Spurs are 13-0-1 OVER L/14 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers.

SAN ANTONIO is 27-15 OVER   in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-28 OVER (+10.2 Units) when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.4 ppg scored. 

BOSTON is 21-9 OVER  after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. 

Play OVER

The Pelicans enter this game having lost 6 of their L/8 and are a hard fought 114-112 loss vs the Denver Nuggets last time out and could easily be susceptible to a emotional letdown scenario. NEW ORLEANS is 11-21 ATS as a favorite this season. Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.  Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

NBA  team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 25-58 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. ( The Thunder took a 111-110 win las time these teams met this season)

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

The Raptors according to my power rankings matchup well vs the Nuggets, and earlier this season gave them a good beating. I know the Nuggets are out looking for revenge, but they are on tired legs and off a grueling affair vs the Pelicans last time out pulling off a 114-112 win and susceptible to a letdown scenario.  DENVER is 4-12 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season . Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

Nurse is 11-1 ATS  in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots as the coach of TORONTO.

NBA Home teams (DENVER) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 26-54 ATS L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.


 Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

The Pelicans have gone under in 3 straight games and have played good defence of late, and Im betting they remain on the path here tonight vs a Thunder side that is ranked 28th in ppg offence this season. Van Gundy is 22-9 UNDER in road games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog in all games he has coached with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored. 

The Thunder are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a dog coming off a win in which they had more turnovers than assists with a combined average of 199.9 ppg scored. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-21 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored.

NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a close road loss of 3 points or less are 38-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Minnesota is in a groove and have won 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 and in their current form must be respected as home underdogs vs an over hyped Golden State brand. 

GOLDEN STATE is 7-15 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season.GOLDEN STATE is 21-38 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.  Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Warriors are 9-30 ATS in their last 39 Thursday games. Warriors have failed to cover 6 of L/8 at Minnesota. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 7-29  L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover

Indiana after allowing +130 points last time out in a lopsided loss will try to get back to defensive basics here this evening vs the run and gun Nets which Im betting will be deflating to this combined score to to low side of the offered totals number. Note:  Pacers Domantas Sabonis is downgraded to OUT Thursday vs Brooklyn ( Back ) and this Im betting effects positive flow for the Pacers and will directly impact offensive output, making playing a better brand of D of utmost importance. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Suns come home off an exhausting 5 game road trip and will time to get acclimated to home cooking again, and are at a disadvantage vs a Clipper side that would love to send a message to their upstart conference rivals. Note: Suns: 2-13  L/15 home after  5 or more road games. 

LA CLIPPERS are 16-5 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

My projections make this total closer to 217. Great value here with an over wager if generalities play out. 

The Spurs are 12-0-1 OVER L/13  as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with the average combined score clicking in at 237 ppg. MIAMI is 11-2 OVER  in home games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 15-4 OVER  in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting  24 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.   MIAMI is 23-9 OVER   in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 154-95 OVER  L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over 

Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight, which will have them in chase mode which bodes well in a garbage time scenario  for an over wager to cash  .  My projections estimate that the Celtics will put close to 117 points on the board with Charlotte projected to put 103 points on the scoreboard. Which gives us a full possession advantage on this total.  Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games as a favorite.

CHARLOTTE is 9-0 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. 

Borrego is 15-2 OVER  in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight. Boston is off three straight losses and will be primed to bounce back in a big way vs a side that smashed them 125-104 a couple of days ago. 

BOSTON is 16-4 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Hornets are 0-7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Boston.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, off a home loss are 115-65 ATS L/24 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Celtics to cover

Orlando has gone over in 7 of their L/8 games and Im betting on a more uptempo game than the first two meetings in this series back in January. Advantage over. 

ORLANDO is 25-7 OVER  versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 9-1 OVER  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored.

ORLANDO is 7-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. 

 CLEVELAND is 23-12 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. 

 NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a losing record are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play OVER

 Both sides may not inspire bettors but according to my projections the Wolves are the better side, and have been competitive lately with their star Towns back in the lineup winning 3 of their L/5 and showing upward momentum. Meanwhile, the rockets have lost 14 of their L/16 overall and rarely look like their doing anything but going through the motions.  

HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS   off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog over the last 3 season.HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS ( as a home underdog of 6 points or less this seasonHOUSTON is 7-24 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record this season

NBA  Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 5-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

This number stood out to me from an eye test, and then my projections verified my initial observation . Value to the under.

HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER versus struggling  defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or better this season. 

HOUSTON is 20-10 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored.  

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 225 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - off a home win against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 26-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Raptors may not be a championship quality team anymore but they still are well coached and have the ability to slow explosive sides the Nets down . After playing last night the Raptors are on tired legs so they wont be in any shape to run and gun here, and with the Nets off a hard fought run and gun win vs the Suns last time out, I expect they will be in a letdown situation , which will also contribute to a lower combined score than anticipated. 

TORONTO is 15-4 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 35-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

The Nets are off a big win, against the Suns, last time out , and will now be in a letdown situation vs the Raptors tonight . Meanwhile, the Raptors despite of still not being a championship side are still a capable side, and have been playing better lately and deserve respect as hosts here. Note: Toronto is 5-0  SU L/5 as hosts in this series.TORONTO is 18-7 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons.

Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. 

Play on the Raptors to cover

Boston is off a loss last time out and will have little mercy here vs the Thunder tonight. That will have the thunder operating and catchup zone all night which will help this combined score go over the total. The Celtics are 14-0-1 OVER L/15 coming off a road loss where they had at least 30% of their points on threes with a combined average of 236 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 14-4 OVER  in home games after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 13-4 OVER off a road loss this season. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 54-29 OVER L/5 seasons, for a 65% conversion rate. 

Play on the OVER
 

Charlotte seems to know how to deal with the Bucks and and have beaten twice this season already and despite of the Bucks being in revenge mode are not viable favs here considering they are barely a .500 team on the road dating back to last season, as they are 17-17 away from home and 11-23 ATS L/24 as visitors. CHARLOTTE is 4-0 SU/ against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons. 

The Hornets are 11-0 ATS L/11 10-1 SU off a win as a home dog in which they had 6+ double digit scorers.

 Borrego is 13-3 ATS  in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game as the coach of CHARLOTTE. 

Budenholzer is 17-31 ATS  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts as the coach of MILWAUKEE.

MILWAUKEE is 2-12 ATS  in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road favorites (MILWAUKEE) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 68-105 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Hornets to cover

Memphis has been a cover machine and they have played quite well of late, but this is a bad spot for them here in the thin air of the mile high city as they play their 7th straight road game and are on now exhausted and on tired legs and very suceptiable to a down effort. 

 
NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 15-45 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

The Clippers still have a chance for top seed in the West and Im betting they will be primed to play down the stretch and especially here tonight in revenge mode vs the pesky Pelicans who defeated them 135-113 back in mid march . Note the Clippers  this season when looking to avenge a same-season defeat of 10 or more points,  5-0 SUATS the last five opportunities  and Im betting the 6th straight comes tonight in the Bayou. The explosive Clippers  are also 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS away taking on  losing sides , including 3-0 SUATS mark when playing with a redemption on their minds.   

LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

 NEW ORLEANS is 2-15 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or better - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. are 127-78 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The Knicks have been red hot, winning 8 straight, but tonight Im betting their run comes to an end vs what my rankings suggest is the superior side. The Knicks rank 13th in the league from a SRS perspective with a 1,73 mark, while the Suns rank 4th with a 5.53 which is a huge divergence based on this data. Note: SRS -Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

Suns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. Suns are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in New York.Suns are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

PHOENIX is 18-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season PHOENIX is 14-5 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 9-31 L/24 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams (NEW YORK) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 46-101 L/24 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (NEW YORK) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 20-85 L/24 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to win/cover

The Lakers style of play bases its success or failures on their ability to play a top tier brand of defense, but against good ball handling sides like Orlando that type of hoops does not really give value to being a DD favorite as they the Lakers. Note: NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - good ball handling team - committing 14  or less turnovers/game, after 2 straight games committing 7+ less turnovers than opponents are 37-7 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.LA LAKERS are 17-35 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. LA LAKERS are 2-10 ATS  in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

 Two playoff hopefuls dealing with the ramifications of COVID protocols meet Sunday night when the Sacramento Kings visit the Golden State Warriors for a matchup of Western Conference playoff significance. These sides , both looking for a post season, placings will be primed to play hard, but according to my own numbers this line is bloated considering how rested the Kings are and how important this game is. 

Kings: 6-1  with /3+ days rest . the Warriors are  1-5 as division home favs of  9 points or less. 

SACRAMENTO is 27-11 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 9-1 ATS  in road games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover 

  Milwaukee since March 1 of last season, is just  17-16 SU and 11-22 ATS away.  The last time they were visitors was  10 days ago  where they did win and cash vs the  Hawks, 120- 109.  That may have been an aberration  as the Bucks  are just 9-16 ATS away in non- division games, and  4-12 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points. Now with revenge on board it must be noted that   the Hawks are  6-1 ATS at home with same-season double-digit loss revenge when out look for redemption from two straight losses vs the same side which is the case here tonight. Also the Bucks are just 1-10 ATS  off consecutive home games with no rest going against a foe  seeking same-season double revenge (exact). 

MILWAUKEE is 10-22 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons

McMillan is 30-12 ATS in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more are 69-36 ATS L/24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover

The Suns last time out, looked fatigued from the quick turnaround after playing Philadelphia, were also outr-ebounded 48-38 by the Celtics in 99-86 loss. Im betting that exhaustion will  continue permeate today and that they will be more interested in slowing this game down vs the fast paced Nets , to remain competitive which Im betting directly effects the combined score. 

Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Brooklyn.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 93-39 UNDER L/24 seasons for 71% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

The T-Wolves suffered a frustrating last-second 128-125 loss at Sacramento on Wednesday. Towns scored 26 but missed a shot in the final seconds and despite of a not so flattering overall record are playing much more competitive hoops of late and have the ability to hang tough today vs a Utah side that Im sure is over looking them and playing with star Donovan Mitchell;. 

Note: Jazz are just 1-7 ATS L/8 as 10+ ppg fav vs division at home. Meanwhile, the Wolves are 5-1-1 ATS L/7 in a division road game. 

 Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Utah.Timberwolves are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 10-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.   

Road underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 69-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover

 Detroit was very burned out and rested players last time vs San Antonio and took it on the chin, and now a little bit more rested Im betting their ready to compete again. 

DETROIT is 24-9 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% ofr more  of their shots this season. DETROIT is 11-0 ATS   after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season.

 INDIANA is 1-10 ATS in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Bjorkgren is 0-10 ATS  in home games after a combined score of 235 points or more as the coach of INDIANA.

The Pacers are 0-15 ATS L/15 at home after they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers last game.

Home teams (INDIANA) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a losing record are 16-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover 

The Knicks seek their first nine-game winning streak in a little over eight years Saturday afternoon when they host the Toronto Raptors and Im betting they get it.

 TORONTO is 4-12 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. Raptors are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Knicks are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall.

Thibodeau is 22-5 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of NEW YORK. 

Thibodeau is 15-1 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of NEW YORK.

 Thibodeau is 12-1 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of NEW YORK.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Golden State won the last meeting between these teams back on April 12th here 116-107, and matchup well vs the Nuggets.  DENVER is 0-8 ATS  in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season.

DENVER is 14-23 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season.

NBA Road favorites (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 26-61 ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against  70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover

Both team do not inspire bettors but Im betting the Hornets have the edge here a thome. Hornets are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Hornets are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Bickerstaff is 6-22 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days as the coach of CLEVELAND.

CHARLOTTE is 23-11 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 39-6 L/6 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

Play on Charlotte to win /cover

The Rockets are in tank mode and not a viable wager here even if some Clipper stars are rested.

The Rockets are 0-18 ATS L/18  at home with less than two days rest coming off a 10+ point loss.

HOUSTON is 4-15 ATS  as a home underdog this season.

 NBA Home underdogs (HOUSTON) - after allowing 110 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game are 24-57 ATS L/24 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Clippers to cover

Boston has gone under in 10 of their L/15 and will be primed to slow things down vs the high flying run and gun Nets here this evening in revenge mode for a 121-109 loss back in March.  This Im betting results in a lower combined score than the offered total. 

BROOKLYN is 12-2 UNDER  in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.2 ppg. 

BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 214.5 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 115-68 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 65-39 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

This total is based on a projection prognosis which is based on how both teams matchup against each other . This one is simple, as my number suggests this total should be closer to 219 giving us a full possession of value. 

The Pistons are 16-0 OVER L/16  as a 8+ point dog after allowed at least 45 points in the paint and being outscored in the paint last game with a combined average of 235 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Both these top tier Eastern Conference sides are coming off losses and on enough rest to have them ready to bounce back here in what Im betting will be a closely contested affair. Also after watching the Bucks lose a hard fought 128-127 affair to the Suns that ended with a controversial call , Im betting they will be in a emotional letdown state and less than 100% mentally because of this, which gives an advantage to the visitings 76ers. Add to that the Sixers have revenge on board for a loss to the Bucks in their previous matchup and will be motivated to perform at top level. 

76ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.n76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Bucks are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 22-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a  82% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 12-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Boston catches Phoenix off a hugely emotional 128-127 win last time out vs the Bucks. Thats an advantage for a charged up Celtics team that will be motivated to pull of the upset vs a vulnerable top tier opponent. 

BOSTON is 11-2 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 17-7 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better ) over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 27-13 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.Stevens is 30-11 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots as the coach of BOSTON.

Play on Boston to cover 

Minnesota and Sacramento played last night with the Wolves upsetting the Kings as underdogs, now thoroughly embarrassed Im betting they stop tanking for one night and come out of this with a motivated win. 

 MINNESOTA is 3-11 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.

NBA team (SACRAMENTO) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 42-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Kings to cover

Miami successes and failures are based on how ell they play defence. They rank 3rd in ppg allowed , and just. 26th in ppg offensive output and the 28th ranked pace. Meanwhile, San Antonio ranks 20th in ppg offence, and 12 in ppg defence behind a 15 ranked pace. With that said, the numbers suggest we will get a game that sees a combined score in the lower range of 215 number being offered. 

 .Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

MIAMI is 15-7 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored. 

The Heat are 0-10 UNDER L/10 going under by more than 20 ppg on average  on the road coming off a win.

Under is 11-4 in Spurs last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Play UNDER

San Antonio have played their worst basketball in the Alamo City as is evident by have notching just  12 victories in  their 30 games at home.  The Spurs  won only twice in a nine-game home-stand from March 22 through April 5 and have dropped four straight in its home building.

SAN ANTONIO is 7-18 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 19-7 ATS against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games are 25-8 ATS L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover 

The Knicks are the real deal and they have chemistry. I know the Hawks are the flashier side, but the Knicks tenacious work ethic sets them apart from alot of mid level competition. NEW YORK is 14-1 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

NEW YORK is 9-1 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 10-1 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Home favorites (NEW YORK) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 38-12 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

The NBA's top two scorers will go head-to-head when Curry leads the Warriors into the nation's capital to duel Beal and the Washington Wizards. Wizards take care of business vs side like Golden State as they  are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Washington has won five in a row and seven of eight and deserve respect here at home vs the Warriors. 

GOLDEN STATE is 6-14 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. GOLDEN STATE is 6-14 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season.

WASHINGTON is 12-2 ATS  in home games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

Brooks is 17-5 ATS in home games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread as the coach of WASHINGTON. 

NBA team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 6-32  L/5 seasons for a go against  84% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 12-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Washington to cover

Sacramento ended a 9 game losing streak last time out and now have momentum on their sides vs a Wolves side that has lost 12 of their L/16 games. The Kings also have revenge on board or a 116-106 loss on April 5th. 

MINNESOTA is 11-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. MINNESOTA is 6-18 ATS  against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites of 3 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 61-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play on Sacramento Kings to win 

The Pelicans consistently rise to the occasion when playing top tier sides and Im betting on them doing the same again in this tilt. When their 7th ranked ppg offence is hitting on all cylinders any team is susceptible to being beaten including the Brooklyn Nets. 

Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite are 28-1 L/24 seasons for a 97% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite are 24-5 ATS L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on the New Orleans to win 

The Jazz are on tired legs and banged up entering this game playing their 3rd game in 4 days with some key injuries to Donavan Mitchell, and Rudy Gobert who is he plays will be less than 100%. Meanwhile, the Lakers are also missing their two top players Davis and James, but have come together as a team, behind a top tier brand of defense and deserve respect getting points in this spot play. 

Lakers are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

Jazz are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

NBA Road favorites (UTAH) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 67-102 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-4 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

The Grizzlies beat the Bucks 128-115 in their last contest on Saturday and Im betting they will be in a letdown spot here in the Mile High city tonight. I know the  Nuggets are playing  through the loss of Jamal Murray, who tore the ACL in his left knee last week and is out for the season.  However, Denver has not missed a beat and have won two straight without its point guard and will be highly motivated in this spot play. The Nuggets are 16-11 ATS in 2020-21 when they are at least a 5-point favorite.

Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Grizzlies are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Denver.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 11-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  71% conversion rate. 

 NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit win as a underdog of 6 points or more are 1-30 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.7 ppg. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

The Suns were completely asleep at the wheel in their last trip to the hardwood losing a 111-85 decision at home to the Spurs. Could they have been looking ahead to this top tier tilt? Whatever the situation was, Im expecting a rebound here, and special attention played to playing top tier defensive effort. PHOENIX is 17-3 UNDER off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more. The Bucks HC Budenholzer is 111-78 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached with the combined average of 208.5 ppg scored. Its obvious both teams can light it up, but top tier D, will be on display tonight in this EAST vs WEST slugfest. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHOENIX) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Wizards are 0-12-2 UNDER L/14 at home with less than two days rest coming off a home win in which they never trailed. WASHINGTON is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season with a combined average of 218 ppg scored. 

WASHINGTON is 10-2 UNDER  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-1 UNDER  in road games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 8 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 37-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

These teams overall numbers might point to a lower scoring type of affair, but from a matchup perspective my projections estimate this total to be closer to 216 giving us a full possesion plus of value for an over wager. 

Bickerstaff is 12-2 OVER  in road games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more in all games he has coached with a combined average of 219 ppg scored. 

Pistons and Cavaliers have gone over in their L/9 meetings with a combined average of  (227.8 ppg going on the board. )

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher against opponent after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 114-70  OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

Sacramento has lost 9 straight games, and could easily be in tank mode. However, their opponent Dallas has also not played all that well of late, losing 4 of their L/6 while failing to cover 5 times. nothing is coming easy for the Mavs of late, and Im betting that will once again be the case tonight.  Carlisle is 13-27 ATS   in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games as the coach of DALLAS. 

 Kings are 5-1 ATS L/6 at Dallas and have won 3 of their L/4 meetings here the heart of Texas. 

The Mavericks are 0-11 ATS L/11  off a home game in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points.

DALLAS is 1-8 ATS  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season. Mavericks are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. 

NBA Underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 107-70 L/24 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento to cover

The Magic have revenge on board for an embarrassing  132-90 loss to the Rockets in their season-opener and will be very motivated here today.

The Houston Rockets are 8-62 ATS in their last 70 defeats on the road, including 3-39 ATS versus opponents with  revenge like the Magic. .

HOUSTON is 6-24 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Houston is 1-12 SUATS this season versus non-conference opponents seeking revenge from a same-season loss of 4 or more points . 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ORLANDO) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 41-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 18-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on Orlando to win 

NYK have been playing some strong hoops of late, but New Orleans matchup well according to my power rankings vs the Knicks and have the added incentive of revenge here for a loss they suffered at home last week to their hosts today. 

NEW YORK is 1-10 ATS  after successfully covering the spread in 7 or more consecutive games

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 85-104 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Atlanta runs a fairly methodical offense despite of their reputation,  ranking 24th in the NBA in pace  and only rank 14th in offence. Meanwhile, Indiana loves to run and gun with wreck-less abandon, but have still seen the  Under  get notched in their  last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Which tells me they play differently against these type of teams, and or are forced into slowing down vs sides that know taking the Pacers flow away will be advantageous. Im betting this stronger than expected Hawks side will find a way to slow this game down to a pace that is manageable. This Im betting will result in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers are estimating.  INDIANA is 22-10 UNDER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.7 ppg scored.

NBAHome teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 41-14 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

This totals projection to the over is based on head to head matchup stats as compared to current defensive postures and the systems and form being implemented by both sides. Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 road games. Over is 6-0 in Suns last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 6-1 in Suns last 7 games as a home favorite.

SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 OVER  in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.3 ppg going on the board.

The Suns are 11-0 OVER L/11 going over by more than 15 ppg with rest off a win in which they shot over 50% from the field with the average combined score clicking in at 242 ppg. PHOENIX is 11-3 OVER  in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent offensive team (102 or more  PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less are 32-10 OVER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

When these teams played back on March 4th they combined to put 223 points on the board in a Bucks 112 -111 win vs the Grizzlies. My projections in rematch estimate a combined score that is in the 233 range which gives us a more than 1 possession advantage. After playing last night the Grizzlies will not have the legs to run with the explosive Bucks, so instead I look for a concerted effort in transition that will slow this game down enough for a more muted score than many might expect. 

It must be noted that the Bucks rank 7th in defensive rating and the Grizzlies 8th.: Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions)

Under is 19-7 in Grizzlies last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-4 in Grizzlies last 13 games as an underdog.Under is 19-7 in Grizzlies last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-4 in Grizzlies last 13 games as an underdog.

MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average fo 217 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 8-1 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 209.1 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS is 23-11 UNDER  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored in those 34 tilts. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 60-21 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Grizzlies according to my power rankings are one of the most under rated teams in the NBA and deserve respect here vs a Bucks side that is 0-9 ATS L/9 vs Southwest division sides. I know Memphis played yesterday and may not be ready to run and gun in this spot, they do have the weapons needed to be competitive. Note: The Grizzlies are 6-1 L/7 ATS with no rest vs non conference opposition. 

MILWAUKEE is 7-16 ATS   versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.MEMPHIS is 8-1 ATS   versus  teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.MEMPHIS is 16-7 ATS  in non-conference games this season.

Play on Memphis to cover

These two teams according to my projections will take part in a fairly physical affair that will see the combined score stay under this total. 

Golden State ranks 9th in defensive efficiency in the NBA while Boston is 10th in ppg allowed and 21st in pace. 

GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER  when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this season with a combined average of 216.1 ppg going on the board. 

GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 20-10 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season. GOLDEN STATE is 21-11 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season. Under is 10-1 in Warriors last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Under is 12-4 in Warriors last 16 road games.

Warriors: 0-10 UNDER L/10 vs the Celtics .

Celtics: 1-8 UNDER at home in 1/1 rest. 

NBA  Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 33-16 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

The Mavs are tired and I suspect their conditioning is not good, as Cuban and company complain about the condensed schedule. Tonight against a NYK side that has won 4 straight and covered 7 straight Im betting they are in trouble, as the Knicks have the added motivation of revenge for a loss they suffered at home earlier this season to the Mavs. 

DALLAS is 5-14 ATS  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.

The  Mavs are 1-6 ATS  as non-conf favs of 2 or more  pts vs opposition  with revenge.

The Knicks are 13-0 ATS covering by more than 15 ppg after allowing at least 50 points in the paint last game.   NEW YORK is 8-1 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.  

NBA Home favorites (DALLAS) - in non-conference games, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 57-97 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

My projections estimate that the Grizzlies will score at least 115 +points here tonight while the Bulls will put up 109+ points , which gives us a full possession value on this total to the over. 

MEMPHIS is 24-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored.

CHICAGO is 25-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 237.7 ppg scored. 

MEMPHIS is 11-2 OVER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 230.6 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 11-1 OVER  in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season with a combined average of 237.6 ppg scored.The Grizzlies are 11-0 OVER  L/11 eclipsing the number by more than 16+ ppg off a game as a dog in which they had at least 30% of their points on three-pointers.Jenkins is 17-4 OVER  in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 235.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER

The Thunder maybe tanking but there is still some pride left among this young side, and Im betting they will be motivated to get revenge vs a Pistons side that beat them 132-108 at home 10 or so ago at home. OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-3 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.  Thunder are  13-2 ATS away vs .400 or less opposition while the  Pistons: 0-6 as home favs vs a side that is an under .500 side.  OKLAHOMA CITY is 28-12 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 24-4 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 22-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

Milwaukee is off beating up two lower tier teams the Orlando Magic and Minnesota Wolves and are now playing back to back road games which means their not that fresh . Meanwhile, the well conditioned  Hawks are not a team that should be disrespected as they have won 7 of their L/8 overall and out to prove their worthiness and will be motivated to grab a straight up win . Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games and despite of their top tier status dont deserve to be this much of a favorite .  Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Hawks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.

NBA Favorites (ATLANTA) - off an upset win as an underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 43-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover

Oklahoma State has averaged less than 100 points per game in their L/6 overall, and Im betting their offensive conversion rate will continue vs the Warriors tonight in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the number, based on the Thunders horrendous 43% FG conversion rate in their L/5 tilts. Five of the L/6 meetings in this series have remained on the low side of the total. 

GOLDEN STATE is 9-0 UNDER  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season with a combined average of 210.4 ppg scored.

The Warriors are 0-12 UNDER L/12  on the road after Stephen Curry had the highest plus/minus on the team last game going under by more than 16.5 ppg.

Play UNDER

Chicago has lost 3 straight games and 9 of their L/12 and do not deserve to be this big favorite against any team in the league not even the tanking Orlando Magic. Note: The Magic have revenge on board for DD loss to the Bulls the last time they met this season. NBA Road teams (ORLANDO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 111- 57 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

CHICAGO is 39-60 ATS  in home games over the last 3 seasons. CHICAGO is 9-22 ATS  in home games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

ORLANDO is 13-3 ATS  in road games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Road teams (ORLANDO) - cold team - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent after having lost 3 of their last 4 games are 69-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team vs the money line (ORLANDO) - a capable offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 27-6 L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

The Nets are fresh and ready to get redemption for a ugly loss suffered to the Sixers the last time they played. 
BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS  in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Nets are not be underestimated getting points and are  5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. Nets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.

Considering the Sixers are still getting acclimated to home cooking after an extended 4 game road trip Il back the revenge minded side in this spot play. 

 BROOKLYN is 10-1 ATS  after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season.

NBA team vs the money line (BROOKLYN) - off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 27-4 L/24 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors, which qualifies from a under ATS perspective.

Play on Brooklyn to cover

We have two teams playing at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum at the moment going head to head here this evening. The Jazz remain one of the leagues top teams, while the Thunder look to be in tank mode. But Im betting on the Jazz overlooking their downtrodden opponent, while I expect the Thunder to be motivated to play a top tier side, with a nothing to lose attitude. From a linesmakers perspective this is not an outlandish line considering the matchup, but  the NBA is not a cut dry type of league when it comes to deciphering equilibriums , and with that said Ill take a contrarian view and recommend we plug our noses and  take the points. 

Oklahoma City is 4-0 SU L/4 visits to Utah. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-13 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.  OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-7 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 31-14 ATS as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a struggling  team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 227-154 ATS L/24 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a struggling  team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 178-115 ATS L/24 seasons for a 61`% conversion rate.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

My own projections estimate a total that should be closer to 218. Thus giving us value with an under wager. We have a full possession plus to work with this spot play. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 UNDER in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-20 UNDER (+10.0 Units) when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team (UTAH) - a very good team (+7 PPG or more differential) against a struggling team ( 7 PPG or less differential), after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are 26-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - a very good team (+7  or more PPG diff.) against a struggling  team (- 7 or less  PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 23-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Lakers despite of being without their two top players James and Davis have shown themselves to be a difficult team to face, thanks to a very strong defence that ranks 2nd in the league in ppg allowed and 1st in defensive efficiency. Its their conditioning that makes them dangerous because they run constantly in transition. Note:LA LAKERS are 9-1 ATS  in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. I know the Lakers played yesterday and lost, but they are Lakers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog and  are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 0 days rest and also 4-0 ATS off an SU loss and also 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 meetings in this series. 

Lakers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 0 days rest.

 Charlotte also boasts a strong defensive presence but the Lakers rank higher , and in this type of head to head matchup have an edge according to my projections. 

Hornets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Hornets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on the Lakers to cover

The Clippers rank 28th in pace in the NBA and own the 6th best ppg defense and 2nd ranked defensive rating and have allowed an average of 107 ppg on the road. Im betting the Clippers do what they do best and control the pace of this tilt and defensively own a side that is going to be in a regression mode tonight after taking part in a 132-125 uptempo affair last time out.  This Im betting directly effects the the total combined score to the under here.   INDIANA is 18-4 UNDER  after scoring 130 points or more  with an average of 201.4 ppg scored.

 LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 218.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - good 3PT shooting team ( 36.5% or more ) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making  50% or better  of their shots are 28-4 UNDER L/28 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 32-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - in non-conference games, off a road win are 43-12 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Denver is off a down performance last time out and now Im betting on a big bounce back effort. 

DENVER is 20-8 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons

NBA  Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 28-4 ATS L/24 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Denver to cover

The Bulls were upset last night vs Minnesota , but they are a well conditioned group despite of this being a back to back game, and their 5th and final road game on this current trip. Donovan is 17-5 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game as the coach of CHICAGO. CHICAGO is 13-4 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. 

Chicago is 18-10 SU against opponents with a losing record.

The Grizzlies are 12-15 SU in home games.

Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Bulls are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog.

Bulls are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Bulls to cover

The Jazz average just under 120 ppg at home this season, and against a lower tier defensive side like the Wizards Im betting on them putting 5 to 10 more points on that average tonight, while the Wizards Im betting will be good for 110+ points in a chasing environment. When these teams played back on March 18th the Wizards  took a 131-122 affair, and more fireworks should be considered highly likely again in the rematch as Utah will have little empathy in melt up type of revenge match.WASHINGTON is 15-3 OVER  as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 247.3 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 8-0 OVER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 250.7 ppg going on the board.WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 258.3 ppg scored.

NBA team (UTAH) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 42-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Dallas lost to San Antonio last night in a close game by a 119-117 count and are now on tired legs against a top tier side that beat them already this year by a DD deficit. Rinse and repeat on tonights agenda. Carlisle is 36-53 ATS  in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more as the coach of DALLAS. 

DALLAS is 0-7 ATS after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season.

The Seventysixers are 11-0 ATS/SU  as a favorite after being outscored in the paint by double digits last game with each win coming by by more than 5 points. 

PHILADELPHIA is 22-12 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 63-105 L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate. 

Play on the 76ers to cover

Minnesota has played alot more competitively of late especially with  Karl-Anthony Towns in the lineup covering 6 of their L/9 and once again according to my power rankings  look like viable underdogs in this spot play vs the visiting Chicago Bulls side that has lost 9 of their L/14 SU overall and off a loss last time out. 

CHICAGO is 17-31 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Bulls are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota.

Play on Minnesota to cover

The Spurs D has been trashed on a very consistent basis of late, allowing 134, 132, 134, 139, 125, 121 points in a 10 game span, and against this kind of opponent my estimates project Dallas to score in excess of 115+ points while the Spurs project to score 109+ points. Note: DALLAS is 20-4 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 238 ppg going on the board. 

 The Spurs are 11-0-1 OVER L/12  as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with a combined average of 237.1 ppg scored. 

Popovich is 34-16 OVER in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 as the coach of SAN ANTONIO with a combined average of 231.1 ppg going on the board . 

Play OVER

The Bucks have now lost 3 straight games, and will be vert hungry to get back on the winning track against a Orlando side they match up well against according to my power rankings and SRS numbers data. Milwaukee is ranked 4th in SRS 4.31 while, Orlando is ranked 27th with a -6.94 mark. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Advantage Milwaukee. 

Bucks are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Orlando.

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 11-33 L/24 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Afternoon basketball can start a little slower then night time hoops, and today Im betting on an affair that is grinding in nature and that combines to stay under the offered totals number. 

Denver runs the 29th ranked pace in the NBA along with the 9th best ppg defence. Meanwhile, Boston ranks 21st in pace in own the 10th best ppg defence. 

Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 overall.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play UNDER

Charlotte plays a style conducive to slowing  down teams like Atlanta. This Im betting will see this afternoon tilt garner  alot less scoring than some may be  anticipated. 

CHARLOTTE is 20-9 UNDER   in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ATLANTA) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 75-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

 Play UNDER

Oklahoma City's D, has been shredded on a consistent basis of late, allowing an average of 129.4 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood. With that said, Im expecting this trend to continue which projects into what Im betting will be a combined score that eclipses this offered totals number. 

Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Over is 10-2 in Thunder last 12 games as a home underdog.Over is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 10-2 in Thunder last 12 home games. Over is 26-10-1 in 76ers last 37 games playing on 0 days rest.

 NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 33-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play OVER

The Sacramento Kings have lost 5 straight games, and look very much like they will lose again tonight and by a hefty count vs a Utah side that can crush the best of sides without empathy.

UTAH is 10-2 ATS  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season . Jazz are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite.

The Jazz are 16-0 ATS /SU at home after Rudy Gobert had a double double last game.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

Playing hard last night in a start to finish win vs the Suns, the clippers now on tired legs and not completely focused on this lowly opponent ( Rockets) should offer room for a cover by the road underdog that has covered 3 of their L/5 and not lost by more than 10 points in their L/8 games. 

HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS  in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

LA CLIPPERS are 8-21 ATS  in home games off 3 or more consecutive home wins since 1996

NBA  team (LA CLIPPERS) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 19-57 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. 

Play on the Rockets to cover 

Denver owns the 9th ranked ppg D in the NBA behind the 29th ranked pace, while, San Antonio ranks 15th in pce in 22nd in offense  ppg. Considering both sides condensed exhausting schedule, and their other pertinent  numbers we have a projected  tilt that very much looks like a combined score that fails to eclipse this number is a likely scenario. 

Malone is 10-1 UNDER in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12  or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 198.6 ppg. 

SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 214.6 ppg going on the board.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Neither of these teams is playing all that well of late, but considering this is the Sixers 5th game in 9 days means they are the more tired side here. With that said,  Im betting we have an edge with the home side . SRS numbers -Phil  4.81 vs NO - 0.32- Suggest the number is tainted with general value going to the underdog.

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

76ers are 10-22-2 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record

76ers are 1-3-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings. 

Play on the NO Pelicans to cover

 The Pistons have been very competitive of late covering 10 of their L/15 overall, but they did get beat up on by Denver last time out, 134-119. The thin air of the Mile High city and the fact the Pistons were playing back to back games and already on tired legs contributed to their loss. Now with rest Im betting on them coming out here alot fresher vs a Kings side they have revenge against for a 110-107 loss back in late February. 

DETROIT is 8-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season.

DETROIT is 20-8 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.

NBA Road underdogs (DETROIT) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 34-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover

The Phoenix suns played and emotional game that ended in a OT win vs Utah last night, and now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state are susceptible   to being run over by a side that will have little empathy for them, as they look to send a message their upstart conference rivals. 

LA CLIPPERS are 15-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. LA CLIPPERS are 62-42 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

NBA road underdogs (PHOENIX) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 4-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The Phoenix suns played and emotional game that ended in a OT win vs Utah last night, and now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state are susceptible to a very slow start and a down offensive performance against a defense that has alot of stopping power as is evident by ranking 6th in ppg allowed behind the 27th ranked pace. Advantage under. 

PHOENIX is 18-8 UNDER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Utah enters this game off an exhausting game last night vs the Suns, losing in OT. Now in an emotional letdown spot I expect the Jazz to not be as aggressive offensive  as usual which Im betting results in a game that goes under the set total.  NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are they 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Both these sides are playing sub par hoops at the moment, but according to my projections we have value with the home dog in this spot play.

CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS against Northwest division opponents this season.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after beating the spread by more than 30 points in their previous game against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 8-30 L/24 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The Jazz will be ramped up take out the Suns this Wednesday night in Phoenix after the Suns took out Utah in their New Year eve game by DDs. Im sure the Jazz were side swiped by a team that they had probably previously over looked. it must be noted that the Jazz since last season have been one of the leagues most dangerous road teams winning 30 off 44 games SU, including a 7-0 SU mark vs a side they have revenge against. Note: Utah is 3rd in ppg allowed defense and 3rd in ppg offense and rank 1st in the NBA in SRS with a 10.02 mark vs the Suns 3rd ranked SRS with a 6.33 mark which includes ranking 5th in defense ppg, and 9th in ppg offense. Utah has won their 3 most recent visits to Phoenix. Rinse and repeat event on board. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 9-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Phoenix Suns are 4-185-2 ATS at home in SU losses to avenging opponents, including 0-30 ATS in their last 30 games.

Play on Utah to cover

The Atlanta Hawks are a hot team in search of their 14th victory in 18 games under interim coach Nate McMillan and will host the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night. I know they played last night but are a well conditioned team and more than capable of continuing to run and gun here vs a Memphis side that also played last night and , that they this franchise has beaten at home in 17 of their L/24 games.

Hawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.

 Grizzlies are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit win as a underdog of 6 points or more are 1-29 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.5 ppg. 

Play on atlanta to win /cover

This is the Bucks 5th straight road game and now on tired legs I expect a slower pace from them here and a more defensive minded stance, as they allowed 128 points last time out in a back and forth 129-128 win. Note: MILWAUKEE is 20-9 UNDER  after allowing 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219. 8 ppg scored. 

The Warriors are 0-10-2 UNDER off a road loss in which Stephen Curry had a positive plus/minus. 

GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER versus below average foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 23-10 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NB ARoad teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/24 seasons  for a 85% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Pistons have played well against top tier sides like Denver as is evident by a  7-0 ATS record  in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. DETROIT is also 11-1 ATS   versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets are a sub par  8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and  is 8-18 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. 

I know The Nuggets scored a 119-109 win on Sunday over Orlando for their fifth straight and are hot, but this number is just slightly inflated and gives us some needed value.

Detroit also looked good last time out, taking a 132-108 win vs the Thunder and have momentum entering this tilt.Road underdogs (DETROIT) - off a road win, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are a bankroll expanding 52-24 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. 

Detroit has covered 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series and Im betting they stay within the number here tonight.

Play on the Pistons to cover

Over is 5-1-1 in Grizzlies last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record and tonight Im betting they push the red hot Heat into a faster paced more offensive game then they would like to partake in. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games as a home favorite.

MIAMI is 8-0 OVER  in home games versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.4 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 13-3 OVER  in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg. 

MEMPHIS is 9-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229 ppg scored.

MEMPHIS is 11-2 OVER  in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg scored.

Only one of Grizzlies last 10 games have seen less than 216 combined points scored.

Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.

Play OVER

Boston is owns the 6th best SRS in the league at 4.57 while Boston ranks 10th with a 1.96 mark. My projections and power rankings along with the SRS data, makes the 76ers the fav by 2.5 plus points making them my selection this spot. Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 25-1 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate.

Play on the 76ers to cover

The Sixers ranks 7th in ppg allowed while the Celtics rank 10th behind the 21st ranked pace. Both sides are considered eastern conference contenders and rivals and tonight Im betting on a physical affair, as both jockey for play off seeding possibilities and domination from a head to head standpoint.

Boston has gone under in 5 straight. Philadelphia have stayed under in 8 of their L/11 overall. 

BOSTON is 30-11 UNDER L/41 after a huge blowout win by 30 or more with the average combined score of 193 ppg scored. (Beat Charlotte 116-86 last time out) Regression is expected. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 51-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER

The Lakers remain without the services of Anthony Davis and LeBron James and are fade material in their current form that has seen them lose 6 of the L/9 and while covering just 2 times. The Lakers also have a history of poor performances vs the Atlantic division failing to cover 20 of their L/24 opportunities including 4 straight meetings vs the Raptors as visitors. 

Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play on the Raptors to cover

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

The Suns, who will visit the Houston Rockets on Monday, closed Sunday ranked seventh in offensive rating (115.3) and tonight Im betting on more offensive explosiveness, that will result in a wide open affair that eclipses this number. 

The Rockets are 21-0-1 OVER  with no rest after a loss in which they led after the third quarter which was the case last time out. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 61-25 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The Knicks have proved themselves to be a top tier defensive side this season behind key catalyst  Rose  who plays into their system perfectly. Since  Derrick Rose came to this team the Knicks own the  best defense in the NBA  as is evident by allowing just  107.2 points per 100 possessions. Tonight whether James Harden or Durant play for the Nets, I still like the Knicks and their never say die attitude, and hard core physical attributes and team chemistry to make life difficult for the Nets.The Knicks are 9-2 ATS l/11 on the road vs .750 or better opposition. The Knicks have lost both meetings this season, by 5 and 7 points respectively and another close one will be on this agenda , but Im betting on the Knicks tenaciousness to get them the cover in revenge mode. Note:Knicks are  4-0 ATS in this series when playing with same-season double revenge- exact . 

Play on NY Knicks to cover

The Atlanta Hawks return home and are now on tired legs after  their season-long eight-game road trip and now this  Sunday play to host the Golden State Warriors.Both sides are banged up as the condensed schedule takes its toll on teams. If Warriors Seth curry plays he will be less than 100% with a sore tailbone as will Atlantas Trae Young who has knee issues. With that said, Im betting on a muted type tilt that will be slower than might be expected, which will translate into a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers  estimates. The last time these teams played the Hawks pounded the Warriors by a DD deficit and now I expect the Warriors to be more vigilant defensively.Note: Kerr is 35-18 UNDER  in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 34-21 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 18-9 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored. 

The Warriors are 0-10 UNDER L/10 after they had at least 5 turnovers more than their season-to-date average last game with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 47-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER