My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  .

Sun Devils are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.ARIZONA ST is 6-0 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 season.Hurley is 11-2 ATS after a game where their opponent was called for 27 or more fouls in all games he has coached.

NBA Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (ARIZONA ST) - first 5 games of the season, non-tournament team from last season who won 4+ of their last 5 games, mediocre team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 28-4 ATS L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  .

Creighton’s offense  is going to be explosive again this season and here against a  North Dakota hoops program ranked in the bottom-five nationally on defense last season.

Play on Creighton to cover 

Atlantas Trae Young had a ugly outing last night, but Im betting now with the rust off after a injury lay off he will be in rebound mode tonight. This is a well conditioned Hawks team that my own power rankings suggest matchup well vs the Sixers. It will be Atlanta's second back-to-back of the season. The Hawks  split the first one on the road, beating Detroit and losing to top tier Milwaukee which can be forgiven.

76ers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.76ers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.

Hawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.Hawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.

ATLANTA is 47-31 ATS  in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less  free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. ATLANTA is 44-28 ATS   in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games are 3-33 L/5 seasons for a go against  91% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta Hawks to cover

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Maryland top tier D, that allowed 49 points against Niagara last time out will be key here to this total not being eclipsed. 

Willard is 61-35 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 131.5 ppg scored.

CBB  teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MARYLAND) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak division 1-A conference are 45-18 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 72% conversion rate with a combined average of 136.2 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Chicagos super star Zach Lavine despite of some nagging injuries is expected to play tonight against visiting  New Orleans . With him in the lineup, the Bulls offense will be alot more balanced and thanks to improved defensive play this season, the Bulls look like viable bets here on their own home court.Green is 2-11 ATS  in road games in November games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.Donovan is 32-18 ATS  in the first half of the season as the coach of CHICAGO.

Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Bulls are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBAl teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, first half of the season are 9-32 ATS 26 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW ORLEANS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, first half of the season is 8-33 L/26 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

CBB Road teams against the total (MISSOURI-KC) - off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 60 points, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 30-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Knicks hit a season-high 19 3-pointers in a victory at Minnesota on Monday and now regression is on the agenda . Thats fortunate for a Brooklyn side that struggled against downtown shooting. Meanwhile, the Nets have won 3 of their L/5 and have shown upward momentum and competitiveness as was the case in a loss last time out to Dallas by a 96-94 count. I like their chances here vs a NYK side they dominated from a SU perspective in recent seasons. 

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BROOKLYN) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in November games are 31-6 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - poor defensive team - allowing 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 3-22 L/5 seasons for ago against 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

BROOKLYN is 7-0 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons and 4-0 L/4 at home in this series.

Play on the Moneyline - Brooklyn Nets 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Retooling with a young group in Davidson makes them vulnerable to a top tier Wright State side from the Horizon league. 

Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record

CBB Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DAVIDSON) - team that had a winning record last season, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 6-25 ATS 5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB road team (DAVIDSON) - poor foul drawing team from last season - attempted 18 or less free throws/game, team from a second tier division 1-A conference against a team from a mid-major conference are 7-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wright State to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

I know both these sides can pour down points,  but when need be both are solid defensively as well in this battle of top tier sides, Im betting on a more physical type of  tilt that will result in a slower pace than the pundits and lines-makers expect based on overall data. the Celtics own the 21 ranked pace in the NBA while Memphis ranks 14th. 

MEMPHIS is 24-13 UNDER  versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 41-23 UNDER  in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival with a combined average of 194.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Two top tier teams, play tonight as Boston visits Memphis. Im betting home court advantage with a team that went 30-11 SU as hosts last season and are already 3-0 straight up at home this season offers up value . 

Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Celtics are 19-40-2 ATS in their last 61 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

MEMPHIS is 11-1 ATS  as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.MEMPHIS is 33-17 ATS  in home games over the last 2 seasons. Jenkins is 101-75 ATS   versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game as the coach of MEMPHIS.

MEMPHIS is 11-2 ATS  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.MEMPHIS is 17-7 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 30-12 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - an excellent offensive team (118 or more  PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 27-4 L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Take the points with Memphis to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Musketeers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games overall.

Musketeers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games.

CBB  favorite (XAVIER) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins, good team from last season (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) from last year are 3-24 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against  89% conversion rate.

Play on Morgan state to cover

Orlando has played well at home this season beating Charlotte and Golden state and playing closely contested tilts vs Boston and Sacramento.  Meanwhile, Houston has lost 6 straight, with 5 of the 6 losses by 8 or more points and 9 of their L/10  games overall this season, and all 7 road tilts they have played. Advantage to Magic.

HOUSTON is 14-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 21-48 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - excellent shooting team (47% or more ) against a terrible defensive team ( 47% or more ), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's). are 30-2 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NBA Home teams (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 22-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Orlando to cover 

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

TARLETON ST is 7-0 ATS  in a road game where the total is 130 to 134.5 over the last 3 seasons.

ARIZONA ST is 1-8 ATS  in November games over the last 3 seasons.

CBB Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (ARIZONA ST) - first 5 games of the season, non-tournament team from last season who won 4+ of their last 5 games, mediocre team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 4-26 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against  87% conversion rate. 

CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (ARIZONA ST) - first 5 games of the season, non-tournament team from last season who won 4+ of their last 5 games, mediocre team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 5-30 ATS L/26 seasons for  a 86% conversion rate.

Play on Tarleton to cover

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

 Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Tigers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.

CBB Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (CLEMSON) - first 5 games of the season, non-tournament team from last season who won 4+ of their last 5 games, mediocre team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 4-26 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against  87% conversion rate. 

CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (CLEMSON) - first 5 games of the season, non-tournament team from last season who won 4+ of their last 5 games, mediocre team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 5-30 ATS L/26 seasons for  a 86% conversion rate.

Citadel to cover

My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

South Dakota State to cover 

The Jazz have played alot better hoops than many had expected after some departures in the off season. However its still early, and Ive noticed the Jazz have played a lot of run and gun hoops  on a heavy schedule, so they are on tired legs and vulnerable  entering this tilt vs a Clippers side that has won 3 straight games behind a solid D. With that said, Im recommending we ride the momentum of the Clippers at Staples today.  UTAH is 8-18 ATS  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.

UTAH is 9-21 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 season. UTAH is 15-31 ATS  after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.

Jazz are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Jazz are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games.Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games are 2-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.4 which easily qualifies on this ATS line. 

Jazz are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The New Orleans Pelicans and Atlanta Hawks go head to head  Saturday in NBA action at the State Farm Arena. Both of these teams have been taking part in some high scoring events, but my projections tell me that is offered total is a little over blown considering the Pelicans played last night and are on tired legs. The Hawks are much fresher, but Im betting the Pelicans try to slow this game down to a manageable tempo which will in turn help us stay under this offered number.

Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 5-0 in Pelicans last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record

NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 UNDER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 17-2 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg going on the board.

ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-4 UNDER  L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

New Orleans played last night in a win vs Golden State and will now be on tired legs against a well rested Atlanta Hawks side that is built to take on bigger teams like the Pelicans. 

ATLANTA is 29-15 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons. 

Pelicans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Pelicans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Pelicans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.

NBA  Road teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 32-10 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate.

Pelicans are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.

Pelicans are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

Play on Atlanta to cover

Last time out -The Knicks came back from a  12-point deficit ,  in the fourth-quarter Friday to edge the host Philadelphia 76ers 106-104. The Celtics are off a  hard fought victory Chicago Bulls to take a 123-119 event. Both teams are now ion tired legs, but the Knicks under HC Thibodeau has proved themselves to well conditioned. Note: Thibodeau is 18-7 ATS   when playing on back-to-back days as the coach of NEW YORK. Knicks are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 0 days rest. Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.

Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

BOSTON is 14-30 ATS  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 10-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

The Knicks have won the L/3 meetings SU at home in this series.

Play on the Knicks to cover

Brooklyn is off a much needed win last time out playing a complete game vs the Washington Wizards. by a 128-86 count. But now Im betting on regression, vs a Charlotte side that is desperate for some positive results after 3 straight losses.Note:  BROOKLYN is 9-25 ATS (after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.Udoka is 1-14 ATS  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game in all games he has coached.

BROOKLYN is 10-26 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 18-43 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 17-30 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 68 points or more in the first half last game are 27-17 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Im not recommending we make this a ML bet, but giving an example of a possible outright upset that makes taking points a very viable option.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Golden State took part in a back and forth event last night with the Orlando Magic losing 130-129  and are now on tired legs headed into this tilt against Zion Williamson and company and  at a disadvantage after losing 4 straight games, thanks to a shoddy D, that ranks last in the league in ppg allowed (122.2). Im betting on the Pelicans who will be prepared  as hosts to take advantage of an opponents not operating on all cylinders.GOLDEN STATE is 5-16 ATS  in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 22-34 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons.GOLDEN STATE is 11-22 ATS  in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 118+ points/game on the season, after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 11-32 L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -4.2. 

Play on New Orleans to cover

Orlando ranks 29th in offensive output,  and 12th in ppg allowed and rank 18th in pace. Meanwhile, Golden state is almost the complete opposite, running and gunning behind a fast paced attack. The clashes of these opposites bodes well however, according to my projections for seeing a combined score that fails to eclipse this number. The Magic dont have the overall talent or system to push back hard on the Warriors, and the visitors Im betting after a grueling start to their campaign may  treat this like a defacto game off and make a it a more pleasure orientated  trip to Disney. Grinder on board. 

GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER   in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. 

GOLDEN STATE L/12  road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25% or worse) playing a team with a losing record are 65-35 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

Utah despite of supposedly being in a rebuilding or remodeling mode have played well this season. However, now with opponents aware of the Jazz grit and top tier play to begin the season will now have zero surprise factor working for them, and will face a Dallas side prepared to play them. Also after falling asleep at the wheel in a loss vs the Orlando Magic last time out the Mavericks will be primed for a  bounce back effort.  

Jazz are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.Jazz are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Mavericks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games are 2-31 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NBA team (UTAH) - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%), after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 7-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Dallas is 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 at home in this series vs Utah.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Houston continues to be inconsistent offensively and tonight against a banged up Clippers side, Im betting this total will not be eclipsed as both teams flow issues lean towards a lower scoring affair. LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER  in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.8 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 UNDER  as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.4 ppg. 

Under is 20-8-1 in Clippers last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS/HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 30-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.

Play on the UNDER

Milwaukee pulled off a 110-108 win in the first game of this 2 game set in Wisconsin with the visiting Detroit Pistons. The  Pistons showed alot of fight and grit  in that above mentioned tilt  and Im betting they're not going down without a fight tonight. Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record

DETROIT is 30-13 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. DETROIT is 29-16 ATS  versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - team that had a winning record last season, after 4 or more consecutive wins are 8-29 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. 

NBA  team vs the money line (DETROIT) - off a loss against a division rival against opponent off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival are 22-6 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on the Detroit  Pistons to cover 

The Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3) head to The Valley on Tuesday night to take on the Phoenix Suns (5-1) at Footprint Center.

Phoenix will be without center Deandre Ayton (ankle) for the second straight game, and despite of not not effecting them last time out vs still rebuilding Houston, it will against the Wolves.  Im betting Aytons absence will be a negative factor that will help us cash a ticket with a Minnesota side off a loss vs the Spurs last time out in what was in my opinion a look ahead situation. Now focused on their opponent Im betting we see the Wolves step up in redemption mode. 

Williams is 15-34 ATS  in home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more in all games he has coached

MINNESOTA is 27-15 ATS  when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites (PHOENIX) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games are 6-25 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.  

Play on Minnesota to cover

 The Jazz grabbed a 124-123 win vs Memphis last time out , and once again face the  Grizzlies for the second time in three nights Monday in Salt Lake City. Memphis shot 56.8 percent, but Utah countered by hitting 51.7 percent of its shots. It was a wide open event, but now Im betting on offensive  regression.

Previous to the Jazz last tilt they saw 3 straight unders, and Im betting on this combined score failing to eclipse this offering. 

UTAH is 24-13 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.4 ppg. 

Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 home games.

Under is 19-7-1 in Jazz last 27 games following a straight up win.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 52-19 UNDER L/26 for a 73% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 93-37 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The teams spilt the two previous contests in Minneapolis, with the Spurs winning 115-106 on Monday and Minnesota getting the job done in a  134-122 victory on Wednesday. Im now betting on regression from a offensive perspective here in game 3 after the last explosion and for this combined score to more closely mimic the first meeting. Note: Minnesota enters after a 111-102 win at home over the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday with their D being the big difference maker and nothing changes here today as this looks to be a recipe for success. 

SAN ANTONIO is 13-3 UNDER  after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored.

Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UNDER 

These teams spilt the two previous contests in Minneapolis, with the Spurs winning 115-106 on Monday and Minnesota prevailing 134-122 on Wednesday. With that said, I run here with a regular season zig zag theory and support and recommend we bet the upstart Spurs at home with crowd advantage on their side. 

Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.

Spurs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Spurs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.Spurs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.

 Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.Spurs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

Road favorites (MINNESOTA) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, on Sunday games are 7-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - an excellent offensive team (118 or more  PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 26-4 L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover

I know both sides have played some fast paced wide open affairs, but both sides are openly speaking about playing better D. Based on my projections this line should be closer to 227 thus giving us value with a full possession edge on an under wager.

GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER  against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored. 

GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 UNDER  in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored. 

Under is 35-16-1 in Warriors last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

DETROIT is 18-4 UNDER L/22 after allowing 130 points or more with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored. Under is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (118 or more  PPG are 34-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Bucks are a solid defensive side ranking 1st in the NBA in ppg allowed . The Bucks  have become very physical in nature, and Im betting they matchup well here vs a run and gun offensive structure that Atlanta utilizes. ATLANTA is 5-20 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +7.7. ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. McMillan is 9-22 ATS  in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less  points/game as the coach of ATLANTA.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good free throw shooting team from last season - made 76% or better of their free throws, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 25-2 L/26 seasons for a 93% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good 3 point shooting team from last season - made 36%  or better of their attempts, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 23-4 L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Milwaukee is 4-1 SU/ATS L/5 at home in this series.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

Damian Lillard averaged 33.3 points during the Trail Blazers' 4-0 start, shooting 50 percent overall and 40 percent on 3-pointers while playing 37.1 minutes per game. He was injured last time out in the Blazers first loss of the season. He is a key cog for this teams offensive flow and Im betting it effects them here tonight vs a young under rated Houston team that almost always plays a all out brand of hoops on young legs. Houston has covered their L/4 trips to Portland and get the nod again tonight. Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games dating back to last season, and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

PORTLAND is 18-36 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasonsTrail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Trail Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Play on Rockets to cover 

The 76ers lost the first game in this 2 tilt set in Toronto on Wednesday, but now I expect the   Philadelphia 76ers  to answer  back in the rematch on Friday night. Philadelphia  are going to make adjustments. It's almost like the playoffs, where you do something in Game 1, and the other side adjust to it.  I know the 76ers have struggled so far , but its early and they are more than capable behind Doc. Rivers tutelage of a bounce back beginning here tonight vs the Raptors. Note: TORONTO is 0-9 ATS in home games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

 NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival are 23-9 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Washington (3-1) matches up well against Indiana as was the case in their opening game of the season winning by. a 114-107 count as road dogs. With Indiana (1-4)  playing horrendous D, early on this season ranking dead last in the league in ppg allowed ( 122 ppg) they are fade material. 

INDIANA is 4-14 ATS  against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -6.4.

INDIANA is 2-11 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) - excellent defensive team (42% or less) against a struggling defensive team (47% or more ) are 30-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Washington is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in D.C. 

Play on Washington to cover 

The Clippers have gone under in 4 straight games to begin their season, rNKING DEAD LAST IN OFFENSIVE out , and 17th in pace and ranking 8th in ppg allowed and 6th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has gone under in 3 of their L/4 overall with a 22nd ranked offensive output despite of a fast pace. The Clippers will be out to slow down the Thunder  especially  after taking ti on the chin vs Thunder last time out. Im betting on a grinding affair. 

LA CLIPPERS are 27-14 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.8 ppg. 

LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 205.1 ppg scored. ( Oklahoma City upset them last time out) 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 45-13 UNDER L/L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - a terrible offensive team (104 or less PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 125-75 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Los Angeles has been solid on the defensive end so far this season, and will be primed to slow  down their opponents  in physical fashion. The Nuggets have run and gun  with wreck-less abandon so far this season, but Im betting they will have to start to pay attention in transition, or continue to be blown off the court as was the case  vs the Trail Blazers last time out in a 135-110 loss that featured  allowing  80 points in the second half . I can guarantee you the coaching staff of the Nuggets will be focused on playing better defense immediately and that will help see this combined score stay on the low side of the offered number. 

LA LAKERS are 51-31 UNDER  in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots.

DENVER is 43-20 UNDERL/63 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 30-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 24-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

Portland is on a big run to begin their season winning all 4 of their contests, while the Heat have looked lethargic at times and lost 3 of their first 4 games. It must be noted , however, that MIAMI is 8-0 ATS  in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons and are a resilient group with top tier chemistry and work ethic so staying in a down mode wont be permanent. Miami has won their last two visits to Portland and Im betting number 3 is right around the corner. 

PORTLAND is 11-26 ATS  L/37 off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival .  The Blazers had a 135 point output last time out against Denver in a DD win ( 135-110) so now a regressionary offensive output against a  Heat side that can play a strong brand of D wont come as a surprise. Note: Portland hasn't won at least five in a row to start a campaign since the Clyde Drexler-led squad won its first eight in 1992-93.

MIAMI is 22-8 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 30-18 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons.

Miami has won the last three meetings overall against the  Blazers.

Play on Miami to cover 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is up-trending in his scoring average to nearly 30 points a game last season and is off to another quick start and averaging 32.5 ppg entering this tilt.  He averaged  31.9 points per game against the Nets in the 2021 Eastern Conference semifinals and matches up very well against this current group and will be key for me in backing the Bucks to win and  cover tonight against a Nets team with early season defensive problems. 

Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 23-5 ATS L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. 

Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 45-4 L/26 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Nets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.

Nets are 16-35-1 ATS in the last 52 meetings.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

This is Detroits 3rd straight road game and they have lost the previous two by 24 and 9 points respectively and now Im betting they are at a disadvantage vs a Wizards side that  are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. note: 

Pistons are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Washington. The L/4 meetings here in DC have been won the Wizards by DD margins and a rinse and repeat situation is projected here.

NBA team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) - excellent defensive team (42% or less ) against a struggling defensive team (47% or more ) are 29-4 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.5 ppg which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (DETROIT) - off a loss against a division rival, on Tuesday nights are 1-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.2 . 

Play on Washington to cover 

After losing key players in the off season it was expected that the Jazz could easily find themselves as lottery picks by the end of this campaign. Well for now they have dispelled some of the pundits predictions, after some early season wins including a hard fought OT victory vs the Pelicans last now. However,  now on tired legs and offering up  less than deep bench Im betting they are vulnerable to being upset by their hosts the Houston Rockets this Monday night. Jazz are 16-35-4 ATS in their last 55 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Jazz are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games.

Jazz are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest.Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (118 PPG or more ), after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are just 11-30 L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 

Both these teams NYK and the Magic  took part in run and gun fast paced games last time out, and Im betting on tired legs and offensive regression taking its toll here tonight in what will see this combined score fail to see this offered number from the lines-makers being  eclipsed.

Under is 5-0 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Thibodeau is 16-4 UNDER  versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of NEW YORK with a combined average of 202.6 ppg. 

NEW YORK is 42-25 UNDER  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209 ppg. Under is 14-4 in Knicks last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 6-2-1 in Knicks last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Under is 20-7-1 in Knicks last 28 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

The L/4 meetings in this series have not eclipsed this offered total. Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings in New York.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 22-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

After a hard fought win vs the Dallas Mavs (107-105) in their opener   the Suns had a letdown performance in game 2 of their campaign against Portland and lost 113-111 , but will now be prepared in a big way for a bounce back against the Clippers tonight. Note: 

Williams is 18-6 ATS in road games off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of PHOENIX.

Williams is 48-31 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of PHOENIX.

PHOENIX is 26-12 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

LA CLIPPERS are 13-27 ATS in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - off a win against a division rival, first half of the season are 42-80 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (PHOENIX) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 47-20 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to win 

Donovan Mitchell is a game changer for the  Cleveland Cavaliers and Im betting he will be the difference maker here tonight in Chicago. I know LaVine is expected to make his debut tonight for Chicago after sitting out so far with a nagging  injury, but he is still less than 100% and may not play as much as is expected by the pundits. 

Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.

NBA  team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off a road loss are 33-82 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (CHICAGO) - off a close road loss of 3 points or less, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 6-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Cavaliers to cover

Both these teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, but my special power rankings suggest the Pistons are more well conditioned than the Spurs . Considering how tanked the Pacers looked at the end of their last game which was a back and forth event vs San Antonio last night that saw them lose by a 137-134 count, I feel confident the Pistons finding. a way to get the W tonight and keep Indiana winless on the season. 

Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 5-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 6-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

Celtics played a strong game last night in Miami against what was a revenge minded Miami Heat team, that wanted redemption for last years game 7 loss to Boston. However, that expected strong effort did not materialize and instead it was Boston who came out swinging and eventually garnering a 111-104 win . After playing all out hoops last night I now expect the Bean town crew to be in a physical and emotional letdown scenario vs a young under rated Orlando squad playing at home dreaming of an upset. Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

BOSTON is 2-11 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season are 15-42 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Favorites (BOSTON) - poor foul drawing team from last season - attempted 24 or less free throws/game, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better  of their shots are 13-40 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Orlando to cover 

Miami opened this season with a loss,  116-108 to the visiting Chicago Bulls on Wednesday. The team played well and still were defeated, but Im betting on a bounce back here  by the Heat vs a Boston Celtics  side they have revenge against for a Game 7 loss in last years play offs. I know Boston looked good , in their opening win against Philadelphia on Tuesday by a 127-116 count, but will now be in emotional letdown spot after a big night where Bill Russells number was retired. 

Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

Play on revenge minded Miami Heat to cover 

San Antonio is committed to a long-term rebuild as is evident by trading Dejounte Murray to the Atlanta Hawks. I know there are also question marks around Charlotte, but despite of probably not playing All-Star LaMelo Ball here tonight who has an ankle injury still is the deeper side with more experience and overall fire power. Charlotte will go big on Wednesday with a starting five of forwards Kelly Oubre Jr., Gordon Hayward and P.J. Washington, center Mason Plumlee and point guard Terry Rozier in Ball's stead. Rozier averaged 19.3 points per game in 2021-22. Im betting they over power the young Spurs on their way to a win. 

CHARLOTTE is 13-3 ATS   as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons and get the nod here this Wednesday night. 

Hornets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover

The Celtics won last season's Eastern Conference championship . The Celtics have had some bad PR surround the team , of late, as HC  Ime Udoka was suspended for the season because of a scandal and  now  the men from Bean-town move forward with  interim head coach, Joe Mazzulla. The Celtics beefed up in the off season with Blake Griffin now in the fold and the often injured but very talented Malcolm Brogodon. The chemistry of the team and hard defensive work ethic will Im betting stay intact as their ability to compete in the Eastern Conference. Note: The Celtics led the league in Defensive Rating (106.2) last season and despite of some defensive deletions including Williams III remain solid in that stopping department. 

I know there is alot of enthusiasm around Embiid and Harden in the 76ers rotation , but Im not sold that these two stars complement each other and cohesiveness is something that may not manifest for the Philly pundits. Last season the Sixers  ranked  11th in  Offensive Rating (113.0) and 12th- Defensive Rating (110.2) and Im betting at least for now those averages will not be excessively breached. 

As for tonight home court advantage will be key, and something I'll call in a tongue and cheek manner "The Tuesday Effect " 

PHILADELPHIA is 0-10 ATS  on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - on Tuesday nights are 184-118 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. 

 76ers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.

76ers are 4-16 SU L/20 visits to Boston dating back to the 2015 season.

Play on Boston to cover 

Well its do or die for the Celtics tonight, and I believe they have enough talent and moxy to find a way to take this to a game 7 and more importantly get us the cover. Remember in game 5 the Celtics essentially beat themselves missing 10 FTs as Curry did not make a 3 pointer and the Warriors only shot 41% from the field. Curry can be notoriously streaky and instead of a bounce back dont be surprised if he's kept in check again. 

BOSTON is 11-1 ATS  after scoring 95 points or less this season which was the case in game 5. Average ppg diff clicks in at+ 9.7 . BOSTON is 11-2 ATS  after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.

Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Warriors are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 28-67 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Golden States modus operandi since the beginning of this season, has been to play a top tier brand of defense, and the same can be said about the Boston Celtics . Now tonight in a pivotal game 5 battle, Im betting on some very physical hoops with defense being a priority for the NBA two top Ds,  out of transition. 

GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER in home games when playing with 2 days rest this season with a combined average of 201.9 ppg scored.

Since the Warriors championship run in 2015, they have been tied 2-2 in a playoff series 4 other times. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in Game 5 in this spot. These contests have gone UNDER the offered Total by an average of 16.5 PPG.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 134-87 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Celtics were able to score and penetrate at will vs the Golden State Warriors in game 3, and Im betting Boston plans on being offensively aggressive again, but this time the Warriors  top tier D will adjust properly and make sure defense is their primary cause here tonight especially with Steph Curry playing injured and less than 100%. Also both sides are very tired as this has been an exhausting post season, and with exhaustion a factor a lower combined score  as well. 

 BOSTON is 32-18 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average 209.6 ppg scored. 

BOSTON in 72 games   as a favorite this season the combined average score clicked in at 211.6 ppg. 

Since the 2012-13 season, the total on Warriors tilts  has gone 28-10-1 UNDER  following a playoff loss in a series game for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Celtics came out in game 1 of their NBA Finals series  and continued their strong play from game 7 of their series with the Miami Heat. I know zig zag theorists  would now suggest a Golden State bounce back, but Im betting the Celtics continue to give the Warriors all they can handle and according to my projections give us a cover. Note:BOSTON is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less  points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 8-1 ATS in road games as a # 2 seed in the playoffs this season.BOSTON is 4-0 straight up against GOLDEN STATE as visitors  the last 3 seasons. 

Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Celtics are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Golden State.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 65-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

The visiting side in the NBA Finals has won and cashed 4 straight times as dogs of -0.5 to -5 in game 2. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Play on Boston to cover 

Golden State is well rested and Im betting they come and attack Boston with all guns blazing tonight and force the Celtics out of their comfort zone in what Im betting will be a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are expecting. Boston must also not be underestimated in their ability to be offensively explosive in response to what is coming their way.

Over is 11-5 in Celtics last 16 games as an underdog.

Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Over is 10-4 in Warriors last 14 NBA Championship games.

My projections estimate the Warriors will score +109 points. Note:BOSTON is 15-3 OVER   when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg going on the board. 

Play on the OVER 

  The Heat have dropped two straight at home to the Celtics in this series but this series has been widely erratic with each team going on a long uninterrupted offensive runs. But here in a key game 7 situation Im betting home court advantage will be golden.  Note: The Heat are 36-14 SU  and 30-19-1 (61.2%) ATS  as hosts this season.Also from a historical betting viewpoint it must also be noted that  Home teams in Game 7 after winning their previous game by a margin of six or greater like the Heat did  are a perfect 15-0 straight up  going back 22 seasons. 

MIAMI is 20-8 ATS  as an underdog this season.MIAMI is 10-2 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season.

BOSTON is 15-28 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 29-9 SU L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

I know the Heat have not looked good in recent games, especially on offense, but this team is deep and have enough pride to rally here tonight as they are being openly disrespected by the pundits and the lines-makers alike. 

MIAMI is 15-6 ATS  as a road underdog this season. MIAMI is 7-0 ATS  in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. MIAMI is 15-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. MIAMI is 10-2 ATS  when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season.

BOSTON is 2-11 ATS  in home games after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 10 points or more are 116-66 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. 

NBA team vs the money line (MIAMI) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) vs. an excellent defensive team (104 or lrdd  PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 59-16 L/25 seasons for a 79% conversion rate.

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

With a chance to clinch this series and  advance here tonight Im betting the Golden state Warriors come out tonight firing on all cylinders forcing the Mavs out of their comfort zone and into a more wide open  affair. This will result in a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers estimates. 

Golden State scored 127 and 112 points at home in the first two games of this series and Im betting they score +115 here tonight with Dallas in hot pursuit with their estimated output in the 108+ range. 

Over is 12-5 in Mavericks last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Over is 9-4 in Mavericks last 13 road games.

GOLDEN STATE L/25 games when revenging a road loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 224.5 ppg scored.(Dallas won game 4 -119-109). 

Play OVER 

The Mavericks avoided being eliminated last time out, but worked very hard to get the win, and are now exhausted after playing an extended amount of post season basketball. Im betting this is not a good spot for them, and are in big time jeopardy of losing this tilt by 8 or more points.

Warriors are 7-0 ATS in the playoffs coming back home after losing on the road when the line is between -7 and -8.5 with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 20.86 ppg.

GOLDEN STATE in 20  home games versus sub par offensive teams - scoring 108 or less  points/game this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.6.  GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS  in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.

Play on Golden State to cover 

The Heat came out flat last time out and laid an egg in a lifeless effort losing by a 102-82 mark. However, Im now betting on a bounce back effort, from the Heat especially on offense where they will be much more aggressive but Im also betting the Celtics wont be easily run over and be ready to go head to head in what should be a much more explosive offensive tilt than what we saw in game 4. 

BOSTON is 17-8 OVER  after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 220.9 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 7-0 OVER  after a combined score of 190 points or less this season with a combined average of 226.3 ppg scored.  MIAMI is 17-5 OVER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored.

MIAMI is 30-18 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored.MIAMI is 18-7 OVER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score of 212.8 ppg scored.  Over is 21-8 in Heat last 29 Conference Finals games.

Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 Conference Finals games.Over is 8-2-1 in Celtics last 11 games as a road favorite.Over is 10-3 in Celtics last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 12-4-1 in Celtics last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

Play OVER 

Both these teams are banged up in what is turning into a back forth battle between two very evenly matched teams, which has me taking points tonight. I know Butler sat out the entire 2nd half in game 3 but is expected  back tonight for at least a portion of the game and even in limited use gives us an edge. If  butler  does not play Lowry and center Bam Adebayo make a formidable duo that wont be easily handled especially with Smart and Jason Tatum hobbled with injuries and less than 100%. 

MIAMI is 10-1 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog this season. MIAMI is 11-3 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. MIAMI is 20-9 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Heat are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Conference Finals games. MIAMI is 16-7 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. MIAMI is 16-6 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

Celtics are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Conference Finals games.

Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover 

The Mavericks came back in game 2 and  scored 72 first-half points as they led by as much as 19. However, they exerted to much energy early and did not pace themselves and  faltered down the stretch. Here in game 3 Im betting the Mavericks work more methodically and do enough damage needed behind the energy of their  home crowd and  motor themselves to a victory and more importantly a cover. DALLAS is 13-2 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. 

DALLAS is 20-8 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.DALLAS is 17-6 ATS off a road loss this season.DALLAS is 11-2 ATS  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-18 ATS  in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. GOLDEN STATE is 11-23 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 60-30 L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover 

After watching the Celtics manhandle the Heat in game 2 of this series, alot of money has come down on Boston. Wrong or right Im going to take a contrarian stance, with the under rated Heat and their ability to bounce back in true zig zag theory. It must be noted for whatever reason, I began to focus on the Heats progressions closely this season, and according to my power rankings are vastly under rated and with 6+ points to take on the table Im betting we get a cover. 

BOSTON is 7-18 ATS  in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Conference Finals games.Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win

MIAMI is 15-6 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. MIAMI is 18-6 ATS   as an underdog this season. Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

MIAMI is 15-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. MIAMI is 15-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.

NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 58-28 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Heat are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston.

Play on Miami to cover 

Entering this play off series Golden State and Dallas destinies center around  defense as do  their successes and failures. The Warriors rank 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 15h in offense and just 13th in pace,  while Dallas ranks 2nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 30th in pace and 24th in offensive output. Needless to say top tier defensive action should be expected tonight.  Nothing changed in game 1 of this series and Im betting on a rinse and repeat lower scoring game once again, and now that Dallas has had some time to rest and adjust an even more physical tilt should be expected. 

GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 UNDER in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored.  

DALLAS is 33-19 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored. DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER  after scoring 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. DALLAS is 40-25 UNDER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 211.6 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS/GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 305-213 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 131-83 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

With Butler  off a 40 point offensive out put in game 1  and now in top form the Heat will be hard to stop.Heat coach Erik Spoelstra won't be surprised if there is another Butler explosion in Game 2.

QUOTE: "Jimmy Butler is an elite competitor," Spoelstra said. "There are a lot of guys in this league playing basketball; he's competing to win. That's a totally different thing, and he does that as well as anybody in this league. END QUOTE

With that said, Im betting the Heat will go above their expected output tonight, and that the Celtics will have to open up and reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court, which will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 Conference Finals games.

MIAMI is 28-17 OVER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. MIAMI is 32-18 OVER  when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons.

BOSTON is 29-17 OVER  in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 223.7 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Golden State and Dallas destinies center around  defense as do  their successes and failures. The Warriors rank 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 15ht in offense and just 13th in pace,  while Dallas ranks 2nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 30th in pace and 24th in offensive output. Needless to say top tier defensive action should be expected tonight. 

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 212 ppg going on the board. Under is 7-2 in Warriors last 9 Conference Finals games.

DALLAS is 32-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. Under is 47-23 in Mavericks last 70 games as an underdog.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 103-68 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

.

The dominance of home teams continued in this series as the Mavericks cruised to a 113-86 win over the Suns and Im betting nothing changes in game 7. 

PHOENIX is 11-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.

PHOENIX is 19-8 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicks in at +10.7. 

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 29-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate fro bettors with the average ppg  diff clicking in at +13.7 which qualifies on the ATS line offering. 

Play on Phoenix Suns to cover 

Kris Middleton remains out for the Bucks. Dating back to last season, the Bucks are 14-15 SU and 12-17 ATS in games without Middleton. This situation has put alot of pressure on on. Antetokounmpo and he has had to carry this team on his shoulders for much of this series, and watching him in game 6 it became obvious to me that he was exhausted and banged up. Considering this Im betting the Celtics have the edge here in game 7. 

BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. BOSTON is 27-10 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. BOSTON is 21-7 ATS  after a combined score of 205 points or less this season.

MILWAUKEE is 9-22 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 13-30 ATS  after 3 straight games out-rebounding opponent by 5 or more over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Boston to win 

The Golden State Warriors came out flat at the worst possible time in game 5 of this series losing 134-95 on the road. They had the opportunity to take advantage of a Memphis team playing without their top player Morant and instead fell flat on their faces. That Im betting wont happen again.  GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. GOLDEN STATE is 23-7 ATS  in home games after allowing 130 points or more. 

Kerr is 14-2 ATS   in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

 NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 28-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.7 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Golden State to cover 

The Phoenix Suns are one victory away from a second straight trip to the Western Conference finals and now Im betting with blood in the water are dangerous opponents in this spot . They made the adjustment they needed to vs Dallas and beat them 110-80 last time out, and that scheme series is highly probable to continue tonight. 

PHOENIX is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 22-9 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs (DALLAS) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are just 22-54 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Suns are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Dallas.

Play on Phoenix to cover 

This series has been a homer event, since game 1 with the hosts holding an advantage in their own back yard and Im betting nothing changes tonight in Philly. 

 Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.

76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MIAMI) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more points are 8-42 L/26 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate. 

Play on the 76ers to win/cover

Memphis in game 4 found a way to stay competitive without Ja Morant in the lineup, but I doubt they will be that good again as they rallying cry will fade as will Golden States previous inability to read the Grizzlies defensive schemes. What Im saying is that the Warriors will adjust here and get the win . MEMPHIS is 2-12 ATS when facing elimination in a playoff series since 1996.

Kerr is 15-5 ATS in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 19-63 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate.

Play on Golden State to cover 

There was enough aggressive offensive action in game 4 of this series, with a combined 224 points scored for me to consider this totals offering as an  opportunity to cash an over bet.   Im betting on the Celtics being extremely aggressive tonight offensively knowing that the Bucks Kris Middleton is still not playing and have had time to access their best approaches against the Bucks ie Game 4s impressive victory.  I know Middleton is not a lockdown defender by any means but he is an excellent team defender and a key part of Milwaukee's defensive schemes due to his length and overall versatility, so with him continuing to be out you can expect Boston to be in a run and gun mode , which  will force the Bucks into opening up offensively or be blown of the court. 

Over is 5-2 in Bucks last 7 playoff games as an underdog.

Over is 19-9-1 in Celtics last 29 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE/ BOSTON) - in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games are 198-122 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. 

Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

Play OVER 

After watching the Celtics come back and almost take game 3 of this series losing 103-101 and than  take command with a  game 4  116-108 victory it became obvious to me the momentum had swung into the Celtics favor. With Kris Middleton still on the sidelines for Milwaukee the Celtics are a strong play , especially here at home.Bucks are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.

Bucks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. MILWAUKEE is 13-30 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Celtics are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 playoff games as a favorite. BOSTON is 11-1 ATS ( versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.

BOSTON is 11-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Boston to cover 

The home team has won every game and the series is tied 2-2 going into Game 5 on Tuesday night in Phoenix and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Suns super star lead the team with 35 points in the game 4 loss, but  as quoted is ready for a the ups and downs of any post season series QUOTE: "We understand that it's a series," Booker said. "It's the playoffs for a reason. "We're going to make our adjustments. ... I think we just have to flush it and move on to the next game." END QUOTE. 

PHOENIX is 14-0 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a average pgg diff clicking in at +15.6 . 

PHOENIX is 10-1 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. 

PHOENIX is 18-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under +10. 

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 47-92 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Phoenix to cover 

This series has been a homer affair to this point and Im betting home court advantage to once again be golden as the 76ers visit south Florida to take on the Heat. Note:76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and  are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. 76ers are also  0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Interesting anomaly:  PHILADELPHIA is 0-9 ATS  on Tuesday nights this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-22 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.

Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. MIAMI is 20-7 ATS   versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season. 

NBA Road underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams ( 36.5% or more ), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 11-32 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

 Ja Morant suffered a knee injury and is officially doubtful and expected to miss Game 4, according coach Taylor Jenkins. This is a big blow for the Grizzlies both mentally and on the court as the young super star is heart beat of the team. Im betting Golden State takes this opportunity and makes the most of it in what should likely be a conclusive DD win much like in Game 3 .Grizzlies are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

GOLDEN STATE is 16-7 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a average ppg diff clicking in at +11.2.  GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more this season with the average pgg diff coming in at +12.2. 

NBA Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread are 174-116 ATS L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover 

Im betting on key cog Giannis Antetokounmpo   to help lead Milwaukee to a 3-1 series advantage when the Bucks host the Boston Celtics on Monday night in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. In game 3 he potted 42 points, 12 rebounds and had eight assists and his dominance should continue tonight vs a defense that he matches up well against. Bucks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games  and  are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite. The Bucks have lost all 3 games here at home this week. 

NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 11-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The Sixers stormed back in game 3 of this series with a convincing win  and proved that they are formidable opponents for the Heat especially here at home where Im betting the 76ers have the edge behind the energy of their vocal fans.Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.

PHILADELPHIA is 47-34 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Philadelphia to win /cover

Dallas rebounded at home in Game 3 with a 103-94 win over the Suns to get this series to 2-1. Trying to replicate  another victory Im betting will not come so easily for the Mavs here in game 4. The Mavs allowed an   average of 125 points in the first two games and played with non stop energy in game 3, but like i said above replicating that type of energy wont be easy against a  Suns side, that can easily rebound into explosive mode at any time. 

PHOENIX is 9-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. PHOENIX is 16-3 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season. PHOENIX is 15-3 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.

PHOENIX is 14-4 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season.PHOENIX is 16-5 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

Williams is 22-8 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents as the coach of PHOENIX.

Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.Suns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Conference Semifinals games.

Suns are 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings.Suns are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Dallas.

Play on the Suns to win. 

The young Grizzlies left everything on the floor as they escaped with a 106-101 late surge victory in game 2 . Now in enemy territory in a hostile environment, vs an experienced post season team, Im betting an emotional letdown scenario is a viable scenario here in game 3, which will effect their ability to stay at the same level of energy the home side will have.  GOLDEN STATE is 20-9 ATS  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and are  16-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

Kerr is 13-1 ATS  in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - playing with 3 or more days rest, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 130-79 L/26 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play on Golden State to cover 

The Celtics evened the series with a win at home last time out, and now Im expected a bounce back by the Bucks here at home in game 3 in true zig zag theory .  Note: Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite and  are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 80-20 L/5 seasons for  80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season are 52-25 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Underdogs (BOSTON) - a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 11-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 20 or more of their last 25 games are 25-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

The Suns matchup very well against the Mavs as was evident in game 2 of this series and have an edge here even as visitors. Suns are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Dallas. PHOENIX is 11-1 straight up against DALLAS as visitors over the last 3 seasons. 

PHOENIX is 16-4 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHOENIX is 14-3 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

PHOENIX is 22-7 ATS  in road games against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

PHOENIX is 21-9 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs (DALLAS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Friday nights are 14-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover /win 

The first game in this series saw a combined score of 235 points go on the board and Im betting on rinse and repeat type score here again in game 2. The Suns will attack non stop and force a Dallas side that ranked 30th in pace this season and 24th in offense out of their comfort zone and have to open up or be blown off the court like in game 1 . 

Suns are 5-1 over L/6 overall.

PHOENIX is 13-4 OVER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 221.3 ppg scored.PHOENIX is 10-1 OVER  in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.8 ppg scored.PHOENIX is 17-8 OVER  in home games after playing a home game this season with a combined average of 223.8 ppg scored.

Play on OVER 

With key cog Joel Embiid out of the Sixers lineup, they are very over matched and vulnerable to another DD beatdown at the hands of a deep Miami Heat squad. Miami is 5-1 SU/L/6 at home in this series. 

PHILADELPHIA is 4-15 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 33-2 L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.9 . 

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

The Warriors squeaked out a 117-116 win and game 1 of this series, and have the guns to turn the trick here again in game 2.  GOLDEN STATE is 35-19 ATS L/54 off a road win by 3 points or less . Kerr is 15-4 ATS  in road games after a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of GOLDEN STATE. Jenkins is 8-20 ATS  after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of MEMPHIS.

Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.

GOLDEN STATE is 36-17 ATS L/53  vs. dominant rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season .

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-71 L/26 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate.

Play on Golden State to cover 

Golden state ranks 3rd in ppg allowed and 1st in the league in defensive rating and only 15th in the league in offensive output, so D, is what got the Warriors here, and their defense will remain key to their possible advancement into the next round vs a explosive Memphis side. This above hypothesis is what Im basing an under wager on , plus a long list of trends that also support it. 

GOLDEN STATE is 40-21 UNDER in road games after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996 with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored. Kerr is 21-9 UNDER  versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. .GOLDEN STATE is 43-29 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg going on the board. Kerr is 34-19 UNDER (+13.1 Units) off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 51-19 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 46-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 The Celtics came out flat in game 1 of this series and played an absolute clunker losing a 101-89 count vs a Bucks side that probably played their best defensive game of the play offs. Now Im betting on the Celtics bouncing back with a big effort here and for the defending champs to have a regressive event after playing such an emotionally charged game 1.  Note: BOSTON is 9-0 ATS  after scoring 95 points or less this season.

MILWAUKEE is 8-21 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

BOSTON is 24-9 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. BOSTON is 15-7 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-57 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Celtics to cover 

Dallas is a fine team, and matched up well against the Utah Jazz in their last series, but I dont believe at this point that the Mavs do not matchup all that well vs the Suns as was evident by losing  three times this season to Phoenix . With  the previously injured Devon Booker back in the lineup for the Suns they have an edge here on their own home floor. 

Suns are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

PHOENIX is 27-7 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 47-87 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Phoenix to cover

Previously injured Jimmy Butler (knee), is expected to  return at home to face the Sixers on Monday in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Meanwhile, the Sixers with be without key offensive cog Joel Embiid (concussion). The Sixers went 6-8 without Embiid during the regular season and are at a disadvantage here vs a deep side. 

PHILADELPHIA is 9-19 ATS off a road win this season (Took To out on the road last time out) NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home win are just 19-48 L/26 seasons for a go against  72% conversion rate.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 48-7 L/26 seasons with a pgg diff of +9.3 which qualifies on this offered ATS line.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 32-2 L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.8. 

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 5-33 L/5 seasons for a 87% go against conversion rate for bettors with a ppg diff og -8 points which qualifies on this ATS offering, 

Play on the Heat to cover 

Golden State ranks 3rd in ppg allowed in the league and is ranked 15th in ppg offense, which tells you this team despite of some top tier offensive talent has gotten this far based on a top tier brand of D, and nothing will change here against the Grizzlies. At this number we still have value for an under wager and wont be deterred by all the attention centered on how explosive offensively the home side is. 

GOLDEN STATE is 17-7 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 218 ppg.  GOLDEN STATE is 16-7 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored.Kerr is 21-8 UNDER (+12.2 Units) versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 211.7 ppg going on the board. 

MEMPHIS is 20-8 UNDER  in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 115-48 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Five of the lat 6 meetings here in Memphis between these two sides has gone under the set total. 

Play UNDER 

We are down to the nitty gritty here in this series, as Memphis can advance  with a win tonight on the road in Minnesota. With that said, Im looking for a a more conservative tentative game in transition that translates into a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. 

Under is 5-2 in Timberwolves last 7 games as a home underdog.

MEMPHIS is 20-9 UNDER versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 15 or more  turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Under is 9-2 in Grizzlies last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 32-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota.

Play on the UNDER 

These teams are evenly matched according to my current numbers, with home court advantage Im betting being the difference maker.

Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Grizzlies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Timberwolves are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Timberwolves are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up loss.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MINNESOTA) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season are 36-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

Since Devon Booker went down the Suns have not looked like the same team, and that was very evident the last time these teams played here in New Orleans  as the Pelicans won  by 15 points. Im betting the desperation of the do or die situation here tonight will have the Pelicans ready to extend to this series to a final game 7. 

Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.

Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss. Pelicans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games.

NEW ORLEANS is 38-24 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Pelicans to cover 

All the tilts in this series have been fairly high scoring with all 4 games going over the set total. With series victory at hand for the Warriors Im betting they come here firing darts. This will force Denver into opening up and chasing as they fight for their lives. This could easily be the highest scoring game in the series. 

DENVER is 13-4 OVER   when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average of 230 ppg scored.DENVER is 9-1 OVER  in the first round of the playoffs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 23-9 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. DENVER is 10-2 OVER versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 OVER  when playing 5 or less games in 14 days this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after one or more consecutive overs against opponent after 3 or more consecutive overs are 122-76 OVER L/26 seasons for a 62%. conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

This has been a big time back and forth series between two young talented teams. The Wolves played lights in the last game in this series and won. Now Im betting on a bounce back scenario here tonight, at home where the Grizzlies have thrived this season, as is evident by a  31-12 SU record along  with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +9.1 . 

MINNESOTA is 9-21 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and is is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after a win by 6 points or less this season.

MEMPHIS is 14-3 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season and is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season.

Interesting anomaly, MEMPHIS is 8-0 ATS  on Tuesday nights this season.

NBA team (MINNESOTA) - as a # 7 seed in the playoffs are 102-163 L/26 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover 

The Miami Heat are the far superior side here according to my power rankings and for the most part have proved that prognosis correct during this series. More of the same one sided action is my call here again tonight in South Florida. 

MIAMI is 18-4 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS  in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 1-12 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 3-14 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - off a home loss, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 52-105 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover