NIT - Semifinals - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY

TCU matches up well vs Texas. It must be noted that TCU is 11-3 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. 

TEXAS is 4-19 ATS  as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997

CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 25-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (TCU) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 74-33 ATS  L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on TCU to cover 

The Lakers come in here as big underdogs as they play without  LeBron James who has been shut down for the season, with an injury. However, the Lakers look like they have some fight left in them as they come in here off a win vs the New Orleans Pelicans last time out by DDs. Note: James is also expected to be on the bench as sort of an assistant coach, which is a huge motivation for this young group.   Meanwhile, the inconsistent  Thunder maybe getting to much respect in this spot,  as they are just 11-13 against the eight non-playoff teams in the Western Conference this season,  with 4 of their wins coming against the downtrodden Phoenix Suns. Note:Russell Westbrook had a triple-double last time out, but his team has fallen flat on their faces the L/7 times this has happened losing 6 times straight up and winning the lone game by 1 point.

Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Thunder are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific. 

Play on LA Lakers to cover 

The Lakers despite of being without LeBron James are showing some offensive flow and are off scoring a 130-102 road win vs New Orleans. Im betting on that attacking mode to continue here vs Oklahoma city tonight in a game Im betting goes over the beatable total. Note:Over is 10-1-1 in Lakers last 12 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

The last time the Lakers visited Oklahoma city on Jan 17 the teams took part in a 138-128 offensive slugfest and Im betting in a similar output again. Note: James also did not play in that game. 

NBA team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent off an road win scoring 110 or more points are 78-42 OVER L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

The Timberwolves  are still playing hard despite of not going to play offs this season. That was evident when they  rallied from a 19-point third-quarter deficit to take out  the shocked Warriors. Minnesota also  trailed 38-20 after one quarter and got to within three points in the fourth quarter in a 118-109 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday. So tonight, Im betting they come out here shooting darts in full attack mode, and come right at the Blazers, and in turn Portland ranked 6th in offensive output will have to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own or face the same upset issues as Golden State did, and what  Philadelphia almost experienced. With that said, Im betting on a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 63-34 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Chicago are a group of walking wounded and hobbled athletes just trying to make to the end of what has been a frustrating rebuilding  season. I know the Knicks are not much better, but they are a healthier group playing on their own home floor and have an edge in this matchup between bottom feeders. This is a side option based on the lesser of two evils concept. 

NBA Favorites (NEW YORK) - off 2 or more consecutive home losses, in April games are 51-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate! 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

The Knicks against the banged up Bulls Im betting will put up a boatload full of points on the scoreboard, with the Bulls chasing their opponents in wide open fashion . It's obvious by my previous statement that Im expecting  this game to played loosely because of this meeting being of no importance in the NBA standings or to two teams headed for a golf vacations and not the post season. No where in tomorrows  main stream media headlines describing this tilt- will "DEFENCE " be mentioned. 

The Bulls 25th ranked D,  has struggled recently which is a good omen for this game being fairly high scoring.CHICAGO is 8-1 OVER  after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher this season with a combined average of 229.3 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

The Bucks played last night so they're a little tired. It must also be noted that Kris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo are questionable for Milwaukee tonight and if they do play Im betting they may not see that much time as the Bucks are more interested in staying rested and healthy as the play offs approach. Note:  

Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.

, their hosts the Brooklyn Nets, every game left is like a playoff game, as they are in a fight for the final play off spot in the East. QUOTE:"I (said) at the end of the Philly game, every game is going to be worth it," the Nets' D'Angelo Russell said. "We need it -- scratching and clawing for every one of them. END QUOTE.

Milwaukee Beat Brooklyn by DD here in NYC back in February which will have the Nets not only desperate but in revenge mode.

BROOKLYN is 15-4 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

 Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

Indiana owns he No.1 D, in the league, and are 23rd in pace, and at this time of year as the play offs approach even more methodical than usual. Meanwhile, the Pistons are ranked 7th and ppg allowed D, and 28th in pace, and are also methodical in their approach. Both teams dont score a prolific amount of points ranking 22nd and 23 in ppg, so a defensive minded old school pro hoops game looks like a viable out come scenario. 

INDIANA is 32-12 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 202.3 ppg scored. 

Under is 15-7 in Pistons last 22 road games.

Under is 33-15-4 in Pistons last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 24-9 in Pacers last 33 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 13-5 in Pacers last 18 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 28-11 in Pacers last 39 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 9-4 in Pacers last 13 overall.Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games.Under is 17-8 in Pacers last 25 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (INDIANA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 32-11 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

CBI Tournament - Championship Series - Game 1 (Best of 3)

From my head to head and player to player power ranking system, the wrong team is favored here. Note:  DePauls offense is explosive  and  South Florida will have-a hard time slowing down a side that has scored 90 or more points  in 6 of their L/7 trips to the floor. 

With  that said, I recommending backing DePaul in Game 1 of this series.

Blue Demons are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Bulls are 19-39 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Bulls are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big East.Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Bulls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

DEPAUL is 23-8 ATS  in road games after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls since 1997. 

S FLORIDA is 5-14 ATS  in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. S. FLORIDA is 16-30 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1997. S FLORIDA is 0-6 ATS  after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse over the last 3 seasons. 

CBB road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DEPAUL) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins are 104-50 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on DePaul to cover 

The Clippers flew past the  Cleveland Cavaliers in Los Angeles on Saturday while shooting a season-best 62.4 percent from the field, two days after their showdown at Milwaukee ended with a 128-118 defeat to the Bucks. Note: The Clippers have gone over in 7 of their L/8 and in the  Clippers last 5 games they has seen a combined average of  235.4 ppg scored  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies guard Mike Conley, who scored 33 points in Saturday's 120-115 victory the Suns and now look to be in a groove offensively and should be able to hang here tonight in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. Note: The Grizzlies have gone over in 6 of their L/7 overall with a combined average of 225.2 ppg scored. These teams have gone over in the L/5 meetings here and one more OVER Im betting is on tonights agenda. 

Play OVER 

The San Antonio Spurs have secured a spot in the playoffs for the NBA-record-tying 22nd consecutive year, and there is no longer and urgency attached to their work, despite of still needing better seeding . Meanwhile, Sacramento has defeated the Spurs in both meetings this year and have shown they matchup well in this series, and very much look like viable underdogs in this spot. 

SACRAMENTO is 23-9 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.SAN ANTONIO is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

The Spurs are 0-17 ATS with 2+ days' rest when they are off a game as a home fav in which they scored 27.5%+ of their points from 3s and had a BAP of less than 75%. 

NBA Home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 13-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

NCAA - East Regional Finals - Capital One Arena - Washington, DC

Duke looks a little bit over rated at the moment, of course outside of Zion Williamson. The rest of the Blue Devils seem tentative, and unsure of themselves, which is never a great thing against a team like Tom Izzos Michigan State. They should have lost to UCF and maybe even to  Virginia Tech , because of their inability to control the glass a, but today the Blue Devils luck Im betting will running out  vs a Michigan State side that ranks 21st in the nation in offensive rebounding . Im also betting the Spartans’ half-court defence to wreak havoc on Dukes downtown shots , and their aggressive physical nature to take Duke out of their comfort zone. 

MICHIGAN ST is 11-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better ) this season. MICHIGAN ST is 18-3 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.

DUKE is 2-12 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more  of their shots after 15+ games this season.DUKE is 4-11 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games this season. 

Play on Michigan State to cover 

  The Oklahoma City Thunder learned Saturday night they're once again headed to the playoffs.Now today Im expecting this banged up and hobbled group to rest some of their player to extent this afternoon in a game that wont have alot of intensity attached to it. 

Luka Doncic is downgraded to OUT Sunday vs Oklahoma City ( Thigh ) and that will effect the Dallas offence here tonight. 

 None of the L/L/6 meetings in this series have eclipsed the 224 point opening total and at 221 we still have value. 

 UNDER 

Teams in the NCAA tourney like Auburn   who are off a explosive offensive effort of 80 points or more are 43-80-4 (35.0%) ATS since 2005. Running and gunning like that and scoring that many points alot of times results in a team being in an emotional letdown spot which Im betting will be the case here vs Kentucky this Sunday. Note:Kentucky went 2-0 vs. Auburn during the 2018-19 season, edging the Tigers 82-80 in Alabama on Jan. 19 before obliterating the men of Pearl 80-53 in Rupp Arena on Feb. 23 and matchup very well vs Auburn . Also the 3rd time is charm scenario dished out by pundits, and  that perpetuate the myth that its hard to beat a team 3 straight times especially if the 3rd game comes in the NCAA  tournament is a bunch of quackery,  as is evident by the fact that  in the last 10 seasons, the team that is 2-0 in a matchup has garnered victory 72% of the time . With that said   Im betting against a 3rd times a charm rebound scenario in this spot. Im betting on Kentucky moving on and getting us the cover in the process.

Play on Kentucky to cover 

Elite 8 games have been historically played at a slower pace than the rest of the NCAA tourney. Auburns proven all season long that their offense is a strength but with key cog Okeke out or less than 100% their flow will be effected as well as their output. Meanwhile, Kentucky is now basing their successes and failures on a top tier brand of hoops and are playing at a distinctly slower pace than the pundits are expecting going under in 17 of their L/22 overall and 3 straight tourney games. Today against a Tigers side that shoots alot of 3s , Im betting the. Wildcats will be at their best as has been evident during the tournament holding opponents to 32.5% conversion rates from beyond the arc. Look for a much more stringent game than expected and a score that does not eclipse the total. 

Play UNDER

The Bucks won the first meeting in this series this season in  Milwaukee 144-112 and smashed the Hawks 133-114 in the rematch in Atlanta. The Bucks have won six straight games against Atlanta and Im betting on more of the same one sided action here today against an Atlanta side the Bucks matchup very well against. 

The Bucks are 22-0 ATS as a road favorite after a game in which they rebounded less than 20% of their own misses and committed fewer than 22 fouls. 

The Hawks are 0-17 ATS /0-17 SU L/17 as a 8+ dog with less than two days rest off a game as a dog after scoring 14.5 or more points less than Vegas projected.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Suns Emerging star  Devon  Booker scored 59 points in Monday's 125-92 road loss to the Utah Jazz and Im betting him and his team come out firing darts again and force Memphis into a faster paced game than thye might prefer. It must be noted that Memphis has really picked up their pace of late, and have been taking part in some more wide open games and that will be the case again tonight. In the Grizzlies L/5 games a combined average of 228.4 ppg have gone on the board and int their L/8 overall have allowed an average of 125 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 67-30 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Im betting on Virginia implementing  a physical battle as they prepare to take advantage of their rebound efficiency advantage (51st-highest defensive rebounding rate) . Im also betting they will be prepared to really slow this game down behind the slowest pace in College Hoops and control the flow because as we know the Cavs prefer not to take part in run and gun affairs if possible. We all know Virginias key to success or failure is based on D, and is evident by holding their forst 3 opponents in this tourney to 56, 51 and 49 points respectively. Meanwhile, Purdues key to success has been their downtown shooting, and against the nations 2nd rank perimeter D that allows opponents to shoot 28.2% from beyond the arc,  the Boilermakers offensive output would and could  easily  be thwarted. This above combination will result in a combined score that remains on the low side if the Total. Note: Bennett is 21-9 UNDER  in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 122.5 ppg scored.

PURDUE is 11-2 UNDER  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons.VIRGINIA is 22-8 UNDER  on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 121 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

Virginia looks offensively inept  to public bettors draining just  53 points in its victory versus the  Oregon Ducks. However,  it must be noted, however, that hoops programs that scored  less than 60 points  last time out  have gone 171-115-7 (60%) ATS in the NCAA Tournament, including 8-2 ATS in the Elite Eight onward to Final four and championship game. Purdue lives and dies with its 3 point shooting, and Im betting they will have issues vs the 2nd ranked beyond the arc D in the nation. Also teams in the NCAA tourney like Purdue who are off a explosive offensive effort of 80 points or more are 43-80-4 (35.0%) ATS since 2005 ( the Boilermakers scored 99 points vs Tennessee last time out to advance) Im expecting Purdue to run into a natural letdown situation and a nasty D, in a double whammy loss and failure to cover in this Elite 8 game. 

Virginia to cover 

The Raptors look to be coasting to the finish line, as they reserve energy for the post season as they rest players. Tonight I expect the banged up Bulls, despite of being short handed to stay close enough to get us the cover as home dogs vs what could easily be a disinterested opponent. 

The Raptors are 0-12 ATS  after a game as a road favorite in which they were outscored in the paint by double-digits which happened last time out at NY vs the Knicks. 

Underdogs like Texas Tech off a suffocating top tier defensive game have gone 168-123-6 (58%) ATS since 2005 in the NCAA Tourney. Note: HC  Beard is 24-9 ATS  after allowing 55 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997. Meanwhile,  teams like Gonzaga who scored  70 points more more  last time out are just  301-330 ATS ( 47%)  in the NCAA tourney. In a game that features a extremely strong D with the Raiders, against a Bulldogs side that owns a high proficiency offence, Im betting the D has an edge. Remember how at the end of the season in the West Coast Conference finals how St.Marys upset Gonzaga, well Tech is built the same way, and have even better overall athletes than the Gaels and must not be underestimated as underdogs in this spot. 

Few is 9-18 ATS  when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament as the coach of GONZAGA.Beard is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game after 15+ games as the coach of TEXAS TECH.

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

TexasTech has a strong defence, but they are no slouches on offence  and should be pushed a bit here by the highest scoring team in the nation Gonzaga. The Raiders when forced to score can light it up as was the case against Iowa State, Kansas ,  Baylor, West Virginia  and TCU scoring more than 80 points in those games, and prior to their game against Michigan in the Sweet 16 averaged almost 8- points per game over a 10 game conference span. With that said, look for a much higher scoring game then the lines-makers might expect. 

TEXAS TECH is 6-0 OVER  after a game committing 8 or less turnovers this season with a combined average for a 149.1 ppg. 

Play OVER 

Charlotte has been playing run and gun basketball for most of this season behind the 22nd ranked defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Lakers a team that is also defensively in the lower tier of the NBA ranked 24th in ppg allowed. Tonight Im betting on a Charlotte team chasing a play off spot to come out here with their hair on fire and to force the Lakers into firing away with some offensive fireworks of their own which Im betting leads to a fairly high scoring affair. 

CHARLOTTE is 8-0 OVER in road games when playing with 2 days rest this season with a combined average of 237.8 ppg scored. 

CHARLOTTE is 27-8 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 229.3 ppg. CHARLOTTE is 13-3 OVER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 230.1 ppg going on the board. 

 NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games are 125-68 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), on Friday nights are 48-22 OVER L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER 

NCAA - East Regional Semifinals - Capital One Arena - Washington, DC

UCF gave us a glimpse of what it takes to beat Duke by going zone on defence and forcing Duke to the out side. If it were not for Zion Williamsons great performance and the Blue Devils converting on more 3s than their season average, we would have watched a public favorite crash and burn. Now today against a VTech D, that is built to keep teams from penetrating deep and force them to make them shoot treys the Blue Devils a team that shoots just 30.7 % from downtown may have met their match. When these teams met earlier this season, both Williamson and Hokies star point guard Robinson were out , but the Hokies managed the straight up win. With both playing here today, Im expecting VTech to hold their own again, and get us the cover. 

DUKE is 2-11 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more  of their shots after 15+ games this season.VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on VTech to cover 

Denver looked exhausted last night in Houston losing by DDs, and scoring only 85 points and in their previous two games scored 88 and 95 points. Im betting their scoring deficiencies on wobbly legs will manifest themselves again in what Im betting will be a much lower scoring game here in Oklahoma City than the lines- makers expect. 

DENVER is 9-1 UNDER  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season iwht a combined average of 211 ppg scored.DENVER is 11-2 UNDER  in March games this season with a combined average of 212.3 ppg gong on the board.

Donovan is 32-18 UNDER (+12.2 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY with a combined average of 214.9 ppg. 

Play on the UNDER 

NCAA - Midwest Regional Semifinals - Sprint Center - Kansas City, MO

We all know North Carolina runs their offence at a very fast pace, and Im betting Auburn will feed into this energy and that we will have a back forth pro style game played with plenty of points going on the board. 

Auburn averages just under 80 ppg on the season and N.Carolina averages 86 ppg. 

 AUBURN is 20-7 L/27 OVER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game after 15+ games .

Play OVER 

 NCAA - East Regional Semifinals - Capital One Arena - Washington, DC

Michigan State  an extremely capable team will be prepared to play lock down defence against a explosive LSU offence here today. Im sure Tom Izzos game plan will be to take the flow away for the Tigers, which will result in much lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers expect. 

Michigan State in their L/4 games have allowed, 55,60, 65,50 points respectively. 

LSU is 9-1 UNDER when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament since 1997.

MICHIGAN ST is 6-0 UNDER  after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less this season. MICHIGAN ST is 11-1 UNDER  in road games after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.

MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more  of their shots after 15+ games this season. MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 UNDER  vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. 

 NCAA teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 132-79 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Celtics rank 8th in ppg allowed, and will go against a Indiana team that ranks 1st in ppg allowed and 23rd in pace, and 22nd in offensive output. Indiana has been struggling of late having lost 9 straight road games, which Im betting makes them even more conservative and methodical in their approach to this game, which will help  keep the combined score on the low side of the total. Note: INDIANA is 7-0 UNDER  after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with a combined average of 203.2 ppg scored.

INDIANA is 15-3 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored.INDIANA is 11-2 UNDER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored.INDIANA is 22-7 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 210.9 ppg going on the board. INDIANA is 21-6 UNDER in March games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.2 ppg scored. 

Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 7-1 in Pacers last 8 road games.Under is 7-1 in Pacers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 overall.Under is 13-3 in Pacers last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 24-7-1 in Pacers last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 24-8 in Pacers last 32 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 6-2 in Pacers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a ATS loss.Under is 36-15 in Pacers last 51 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 26-12 in Pacers last 38 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Under is 13-5 in Celtics last 18 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 home games.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Boston.

Play on the UNDER 

College Insider Tournament - Quarterfinals

My own projections make this total closer to 152 which gives us value on a least a 2 possession number. 

WI-GREEN BAY is 9-0 UNDER  off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

WI-GREEN BAY is 11-2 UNDER in home games off a home blowout win by 20 points or more since 1997

CS-BAKERSFIELD is 7-1 UNDER after playing a game as a road underdog this season. 

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (WI-GREEN BAY) - poor defensive team - allowing 77+ points/game on the season, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games are 211-138 UNDER L/22 for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

CBB Home teams against the total (WI-GREEN BAY) - team from a mid-major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are . 34-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

The `Runners (18-15) are coming off back-to-back road victories in the first two rounds of the CIT. After defeating Cal State Fullerton, 66-58, CSUB handed Southern Utah a 70-67 loss on Monday. CSUB has 18 wins on the season, third-most in Bakersfield's NCAA Division I era and must not be underestimated as underdogs here vs Wisconsin Green Bay. The Roadrunners have a size advantage in key areas of this matchup, and that will negate Wisconsin Green Bays athleticism . Take the points.

CS-BAKERSFIELD is 21-9 ATS L/30 versus good shooting teams - making 45%  or more of their shots . CS-BAKERSFIELD is 12-1 ATS  after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1997. Barnes is 16-4 ATS in March games as the coach of CS-BAKERSFIELD. 

WI-GREEN BAY is 2-8 ATS  after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season.

CBB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CS-BAKERSFIELD) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (60 or more shots/game), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are 31-7 ATS L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on CS Baskersfield to cover 

NCAA - South Regional Semifinals - KFC Yum Center - Louisville, KY

These teams run two the slowest most deliberate paces in all of College Hoops, and in a game as important as this Im betting on a combined score that fails to eclipse the total as physical grinding action should be key. 

Virginia allows just 55 points per game, and Oregon just 62.5 ppg.

DEFENCE, DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more defence. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 119.5 or less (OREGON/VIRGINIA) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (40% or better ) after 15+ games are 34-10 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

NCAA - West Regional Semifinals - Honda Center - Anaheim, CA

Texas TEch and Michigan both play at a methodical pace, and both base their entire success or failures on playing a top tier brand of defence. The Red Raiders have allowed an average of 59.2 ppg while Michigan has allowed 58.2 ppg. Look for this matchup to be a grinding physical affair that stays on the low side of the total. 

MICHIGAN is 15-8 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season.  TEXAS TECH is 8-1 UNDER  in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. 

 CBB Neutral court teams against the total (MICHIGAN) - after allowing 50 points or less against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 75-35 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

  Play UNDER 

Houston hosts Denver  tonight , needing a victory to clinch the season series and home-court advantage in  case of these teams being tied at the end of the season. With that said,Im expecting a hard fought physical affair with both teams knowing the importance of this game.  Recently the Rockets have been really been paying better attention to defence, and  as a result have gone under in 11 of their L/13 games in March with a combined average score of 212.5 ppg scored. Denver their opposition has also been playing more conservatively as have gone under in 10 of their 12 games in March with a combined average score of 213.7 ppg scored. DENVER is also 8-1 UNDER  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 213.4 ppg scored.  

Play UNDER 

The Rockets after losing last time out  to the Milwaukee Bucks  dropped four games behind the Denver Nuggets for the second seed in the Western Conference, and now will be primed for a big bounce back effort here at home against a team they have beaten 5 straight times at home. 

DENVER is 11-23 ATS against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.DENVER is 10-21 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 10-1 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders this season.

Play on Houston to cover ( LATE STEAM)

New York has an atrocious defence, especially of late as is evident by allowing 124.6 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood. The explosive Raptors now come in ready to run and gun and keep their offensive flow going as the play offs approach, which will see them put a boatload full of points on the board here vs a team that could best be described as being in tank mode. I dont expect for their to be much defence on display tonight in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

TORONTO is 26-16 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 224.7 ppg scored. TORONTO is 14-4 OVER  after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.2 ppg scored.

NEW YORK is 11-2 OVER  in home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.1 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 44-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 The Mavericks don't have anything left to play for, while, the Heat are in a chase for a play off spot. I don't think the Mavs will give the Heat a pass here, and will try to play spoilers in this spot, while the Heat will take no chances and put the pedal to the metal and will be ready to deliver a conclusive win and I don't think there will be any coasting to the finish line ,  if they get up,  which Im betting results in this score being eclipsed. 

Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. 

Over is 6-0 in Heat last 6 vs. Western Conference.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. NBA Southwest.Over is 12-4 in Heat last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Play OVER 

  South Regional Semifinals - KFC Yum Center - Louisville, KY

My projections virtually make this game a pickem, thus we are getting value with Purdue according to my estimations. Tennessee is ripe in my betting onion to be picked off and upset here, as the Volunteers currently look vulnerable as was evident when they blew a 25-point lead against Iowa last time out and were forced to go into overtime on Sunday.

PURDUE is 8-2 ATS  vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts this season.PURDUE is 20-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

TENNESSEE is 2-8 ATS  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.

Play on Purdue to cover 

Gonzaga is often looked at for their explosive offence, but they are ranked 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency and have held their opposition to 43% FG which ranks them 6th in the nation. Meanwhile athletic Florida State owns the 10th best adjusted defensive efficiency and have the ability to put alot of pressure on the Bulldogs attack . Im betting on this game staying under the total.

When these teams met last year (March 22) the Seminoles took a 75-60 win, and Im betting on a similar combined output in the rematch. 

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GONZAGA) - red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games, in a game involving two top-level teams (80% or more ) are 68-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 In the frustrating 21-point loss at Orlando on Monday, the Sixers went nearly 12 minutes during one stretch without a field goal and there have been a few of those stretches lately, which could be signalling   an ominous flash sign of a imminent  scoring slump. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is off a 148-144 OT loss, to Portland last time out and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot that would see them revert  back closer to their season offensive road average of 110 ppg or less in  Philadelphia against a 76ers team that has  allowed 109 ppg at home. Note: BROOKLYN is 15-5 UNDER  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average score of 215.3 ppg scored.  

PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 UNDER in home games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216 ppg scored. 

 PHILADELPHIA is 19-8 UNDER  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14  or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 25-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Orlando has seen 12 of their L/14 games stay on the low side of the total behind a 24th ranked pace and a D that ranks 5th in the league in ppg allowed and a offence that ranks 25th . Meanwhile, Detroit ranks 28th in pace and 7th in defence and a offence ranked 23rd. With that said , despite of the new NBA featuring alot of offence, we are at a juncture in the season when teams like this vying for a play off spot are very stringent with their D, especially if all their successes and failures hinge on top tier defence like these combatants. 

ORLANDO is 19-7 UNDER in March games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 205.3 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DETROIT) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off a road win are 37-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

NIT - Quarterfinals

Texas outside their conference in their recent NIT games have looked alot more offensively cohesive, scoring 79 and 78 points in back to back games thanks in part to the emergence of Courtney Ramey a young man that shows alot of  talent and leadership abilities . Tonight the the Longhorns will go against a Colorado team, that can light it up when need be, as was evident in a recent battle with UCLA popping 93 points on the board. When I look at both teams weaknesses and strengths it becomes obvious to me that their will be alot more scoring here than the lines-makers anticipate. 

Boyle is 16-7 OVER after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less as the coach of COLORADO  with a combined average of 144.5 ppg scored.

Boyle is 6-0 OVER  in road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half as the coach of COLORADO with a combined average of 160 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have not been playing well for over a month now, but they have shown some flashes of brilliance and must not be underestimated to win and cover tonight vs  Indiana team that embarrassed them the last time the teams met, as they blew a 19 point lead and loss . Now with redemption at hand , Im expecting a rallying call vs a  Pacers side that has struggled on the road of late, dropping eight consecutive games away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse.  Im now betting in an effort to get rid of the  sting of that  above mentioned ugly loss the Thunder will be primed to get redemption. 

INDIANA is 3-11 ATS ( in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (INDIANA) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 9-60 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin point differential coming by-9.6 ppg. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in March game are 38-6 SU L/5  seasons for a 87% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by +9.4 ppg. 

Oklahoma City to cover 

Chicago is expected to be without guard Zach LaVine (thigh) and forward Otto Porter Jr. (shoulder) tonight after playing  Tuesday's  game without them losing by a 112-103 score on the road.( If they do play they wil see limited time )The Bulls banged up and short handed will not be in any condition to run and gun and will instead try to formulate a more conservative game plan against a better team in Portland that is also playing without key guard CJ McCoullm which Im betting will result in a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse the total. 

CHICAGO is 22-13 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 214.5 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER  in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season with a combined average of 201.5 ppg. 

CHICAGO is 13-4 UNDER in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or  less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 208.2 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHICAGO) - after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 37-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

DePaul averages 80.4 ppg in offence at home this season, while Coastal Carolina allows just under 80 ppg on D overall . Meanwhile,Coastal Carolina is off of scoring more than 100 points against West Virginia in their last game and are flowing with the basketball as they enter this game, and will be up to the task of running and gunning with their exploisve opponents tonight in what Im betting will be a back and forth event. 

DEPAUL is 7-1 OVER  in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games this season with a combined average of 168 ppg going on the board.DEPAUL is 6-0 OVER in March games this season with a combined average of 173.6 ppg going on the board.

Play on the OVER 

 The Wizards play a one way type of offensive basketball ranking 8th in scoring and 29th in ppg allowed,  and are well rested entering this game and will once again been in sprint mode vs a Lakers team that is ranked 24th in ppg allowed and ranks 3rd in pace. This one has all the makings of a back and forth offensive slugfest that will eclipse this number. 

WASHINGTON is 8-1 OVER  when playing with 2 days rest this season with a combined average of  240 ppg scored.

Also Washington was upset at home last time out, and when this has accorued recently the Wizards have blasted off on a torrid back forth pace in their followup,  Note: WASHINGTON is 8-1 OVER  off an upset loss as a home favorite this season with a combined average score of 242.3 ppg going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 54-21 OVER L/22seasons for a 72 % conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

 Play OVER  

 Detroit are on tired legs as they play their 5th straight road in game in the last 8 days. Needless to say that up here in the thin air of the Mile High city , they will be in no shape or form ready to run the floor, and instead will be conservative in their approach to this tilt which will directly effect the total output of this game. Considering that Denver owns the 26th ranked pace, it will be an easy decision to recommend a under wager.

Under is 12-4 in Pistons last 16 vs. Western Conference.Under is 19-8-1 in Pistons last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

DETROIT is 25-13 UNDER  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14  or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.8 ppg. DETROIT is 9-0 UNDER in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored. DETROIT is 27-7 UNDER (when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.9 ppg going on the board.DETROIT is 14-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.2 ppg scored. DETROIT is 13-2 UNDER  after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 205.2 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 10-1 in Nuggets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 8-1 in Nuggets last 9 games following a ATS loss.Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 home games.Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 overall. 

DENVER is 16-3 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season with a combine average of 210 ppg scored. 

Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 156-85 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

When the teams met earlier this season  Milwaukee took a 116-109 in Houston on Jan. 9. Now as the season starts to wind down and the play offs approach I look for a more defensive style game, that will help see this total stay under the set total. Note: HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  revenging a home loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored.

 HOUSTON is 11-3 UNDER  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 217.6 ppg going on the board. HOUSTON is 16-5 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or more ) over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 212.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 210.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 47-13 UNDER L/ 22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 37-12 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Two rebuilding teams with no play off expectations g head to head tonight in the Bayou.   Atlanta has won two consecutive games against playoff teams and New Orleans has lost two consecutive games against playoff contenders.The Pelicans have lost eight of their last nine games, including a 128-116 loss to the Hawks on March 10 in Atlanta.Meanwhile, Atlanta is off two huge upset wins vs Utah and Philadelphia last time out by a 129-127 mark, and Im betting now will be in a huge let down spot. Note: NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - lower tier defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 63-115 ATS L/22 seasons for a 65% long term go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Also NBA team vs the money line (ATLANTA) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a home underdog, on Tuesday nights are 5-26 SU 22 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate. I know the Pelicans dont have alot to play for but taking out another young team that has pulled off some upsets will be a ego boost for them and Im betting they play a motivated game here and get the win and cover.

Play on New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

In the new NBA where high scoring affairs are very normal, a high total like this does not hold as much value as it once did for sharp under bettors.  Now the smart money recognizes the long term value of crushing totals like this based on obvious data observations. Tonight with Atlanta a team with the worst ppg defence in the league behind the 2nd fastest pace, we have a situation that bodes well for a very high scoring game. With both these teams New Orleans and Atlanta playing for very  little other than padding personal stats, Im really expecting an all star game type output . The Pelicans rank 3rd in ppg offence and 27th in ppg allowed and 4th in pace and will more than ready to run and gun here with the visitors. There will be no call for defence, defence , defence in this one. 

Play OVER 

The Orlando Magic, visit the Miami Heat on Tuesday night in a game with serious playoff implications and that Im betting will be a hard fought affair that makes taking the points golden. The Magic showed their prowess last night in a win vs Philadelphia at home in the Magic kingdom and will be primed to keep rolling tonight in their quest for a play off spot. Orlando currently on a 5 game win streak, are 4-1 SU/ATS in their L/5 visits to South Florida and get my support in this spot. 

Heat are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Heat are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Southeast.Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Tuesday games.

Play on Orlando to cover 

NIT Tournament - Quarterfinals

 India star Langford has missed Indiana’s first two NIT games after experiencing a back issue at the Big Ten Tournament and if he plays he will be limited, which in turn will continue to hinder  the Hoosiers flow which is a thick a oil anyway. Indiana’s struggles from outside as three-pointers, which ranks No. 299 in the try in three-point rate, and the Hoosiers make just 31.2 percent of them, the No. 314 mark in the country, so rounding up points in bunches is not an option. Indiana has been able to compete because of a defense that ranks No. 29 on KenPom , and  in their two NIT victories, the Hoosiers D kept both St. Francis (0.98) and Arkansas (0.90) under one point per possession and Im betting on more of the same here vs Wichita State. Meanwhile, WSU’s defense, which has done well limiting shots at the rim (33 percent, No. 93 nationally) and also defending shots at the rim (55.4 percent, No. 42 nationally) will be behemouth keeping a Indiana team that scores most of its points in close to struggle which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total. 

 INDIANA is 11-3 UNDER  in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with a combined average of 129.5 ppg scored. INDIANA is 9-2 UNDER  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined 128.9 ppg scored. 

CBB Home teams against the total (INDIANA) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, on Tuesday nights are 109-66 UNDER L/5 seasons  for a 62% conversion rate. 

CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals

Its never easy for a team like Brown travelling for East to West, and their internal clocks should be effected , which should effect their offensive flow. This Brown team bases its successes and failures on play strong D, so that wont be effected here, but will directly make for a much slower paced conservative game plan, which in turn Im betting  will see a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. BROWN is 11-1 UNDER as a road underdog or pick this season.BROWN is 13-1 UNDER in road lined games this season.

It must also be noted that Loyola Marymount is also playing some strong defence, and   is 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 55 points or less this season whihc was the case last time out. 

Play on the UNDER 

CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals

Its never easy for a team like Brown travelling for East to West, and their internal clocks should be effected , which should effect their offensive flow. This Brown team bases its successes and failures on their ability to play strong D, so that wont be effected here, but will directly make for a much slower paced conservative game plan, which in turn Im betting  will see a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. BROWN is 11-1 UNDER as a road underdog or pick this season.BROWN is 13-1 UNDER in road lined games this season.

It must also be noted that Loyola Marymount is also playing some strong defence, and   is 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 55 points or less this season whichwas the case last time out. 

Play on the UNDER 

Southern Utah average almost 80 ppg at home this season, and Im betting they hit that plateau here again, while CS Bakersfield does all they can to keep pace behind a offence tha taverages 71.2 ppg this season.

CS Bakersfield averages 37.5 rebounds a game with Southern Utah averaging 36.8 rebound per game. Note: SOUTHERN UTAH is 14-4 OVER  when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 157.2 ppg.

SOUTHERN UTAH is 7-0 OVER in home games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons something they have just achieved with a combine average of 161.5 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER 

Memphis ranks 30th in pace in the NBA , 30th in ppg on offence and 2nd in ppg allowed .  Their home scoring out put on the season at home clicks in at 103 ppg and have allowed 102 ppg at as hosts during the current campaign.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is ranked 4th in defensive efficiency in the league, and of late have been trying to pay alot more attention to defence as the play offs approach. With that said, Im betting these two teams current state of hoops operation gives us an edge with an under wager in this spot play.

MEMPHIS is 32-19 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 207.3 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 12-4 UNDER  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season with a combined average of 203.1 ppg.

  MEMPHIS is 8-0 UNDER  in home games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons and 13-1 UNDER  in home games after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 16-3 UNDER  after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season with a combined average of 202 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight games are 34-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Orlando has won 4 straight home games during their current 5 game home stand. Im betting that tonight against Philadelphia in their 5th straight home game, that the wrong team is favored. I . know the Sixers have the better record and the higher profile player personell but the Magic are playing great cohesive basketball and exhibiting a great deal of chemistry and deserve respect here defending home court against the Sixers side, that is just 17-18 ATS overall on the road this season. It must also be noted that the Sixers are off a exhausting back and forth tilt vs the at Atlanta last time out that they looked a little tanked in from the start. 

ORLANDO is 11-3 ATS  against Atlantic division opponents this season. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - after scoring 110 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 36-63 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover 

CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals

West Virginia has played better of late, but they are going against a under rated Coastal Carolina squad that has shot under 40% from the field only once all season long.  Coastal Carolina have won four of their last seven and have shown they have a never die attitude repeatedly this season  as was evident when they  trailed Howard by 14 with 13 minutes left on Wednesday before coming back for an 81-72 victory.  I like their grit and their ability to hand tough here tonight. 

W VIRGINIA is 9-22 ATS  as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and 6-15 ATS as a 10 point or more fav at home. 

W VIRGINIA is 0-6 ATS  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover 

I was waiting to see if LeBron James was going to play tonight for the Lakers and now that he is probable Ill pull the trigger on a over bet. Sacramento and LAL both are both fast paced teams with the Lakers ranking 4th and the Kings ranking 1st. With that said, Im betting on these sides coming at each other with a full head of steam and combine for total score that eclipses this number.

The Lakers beat the Kings 121-114 here on Dec 30 this season.SACRAMENTO is 12-4 OVER in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 239 ppg scored. In the two most recent meetings in this series this season these teams scored an average of 234 ppg. 

Play OVER 

NIT - Second Round

Nebraska has recently impressed me with their  play, and after watching them beat Butler, last time out look very much a like a viable dark horse underdog in this tournament and today as dogs.  Meanwhile, TCU has gone 9-12 after a 12-1 start.From a data stats standpoint these are evenly matched teams. Nebraska is 48th in the NET while TCU is 52nd. The Huskers are 43rd in KenPom while TCU is 49th. TCU's strength of schedule is 45th while Nebraska's is 47th. Thus taking points here is avery viable investment option. 

NEBRASKA is 12-1 ATS  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. NEBRASKA is 10-1 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NEBRASKA is 17-8 ATS  versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.NEBRASKA is 17-8 ATS  versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Nebraska to cover 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - BOK Center - Tulsa, OK

 The Cougars looked good at the start of this NCAA tourney as  they took a 84-55 win over Georgia State . That kind of dominance will not come as easily vs Ohio State, a team that despite of struggling to score showed their ability to stand tall  defensively against Iowa State and advance . Tonight Im betting on this being a very physical closely contested battle, with alot of action in the paint, and under the glass.  

HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS L/12  as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.

 Ohio State are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.

Holtmann is 13-4 ATS in road games in non-conference games in all games he has coached. 

CBB team (OHIO ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG) after 15+ games, after a win by 6 points or less are 148-92 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Ohio State to cover 

Detroit HC Dwane Casey exhausted his starters   in a game that started late last night. The Pistons then had to make the 90-minute flight into the San Francisco Bay Area, finally getting settled well into the morning on a day in which they're scheduled for an early (5:30 p.m. Pacific) start. The Pistons now on tired legs and dealing with unfortunate scheduling just wont be up to playing the physical brand of D, thye need to to be able to slow the Warriors down. Im betting on Golden State off a ugly 91 point output last time out to  really rev things up here and to put a boatload full of points on the board in a game I have pegged to go over the total. 

DETROIT is 7-0 OVER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. with a combined average o f223.9 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more are 38-12 OVER L/5  seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten game are 122-80 OVER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC

Teams like Oklahoma and Virginia that play at a pace of 65 or less have gone under the total 61%+ of the time since the 2005 season.

OKLAHOMA is 12-4 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season. 

 Neutral court teams against the total (OKLAHOMA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63  or less PPG), after a combined score of 165 points or more are 73-34 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - SAP Center - San Jose, CA

These teams played each other earlier this season with VTEch winning and both know what to expect. HC McKay of Liberty is  a former Virginia assistant,  and implements UVa’s Pack Line defense. Also heres a hint at what I expect as quoted from a Liberty players: QUOTE: “We’ll just try to play our style of basketball and not get lured into playing their style, … try not to get into more of an uptempo game,” END QUOTE: Flames guard Lovell Cabbil Jr. said. The Hokies focus defensively on keeping teams out of the paint and forcing foes to beat them from 3-point range and thats not easy, thus I can see this game staying on the lower side of the number.

My projections based on both teams systems suggests a score that fails to eclipse this total. 

 LIBERTY is 7-1 UNDER  after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better this season.

VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 UNDER in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons

VIRGINIA TECH is 83-59 UNDER in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game since 1997. 

Play on the UNDER 

 NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC

We all know the elite transition offence that Duke has lead by Zion Williamson. Also Duke has been a power house all season long from inside the arc, accumulating the 21st highest 2 point scoring conversion rate in the nation at 55.7% , and even with  7 "6 Taco Fall in the paint Im betting will still do a fair amount of damage offensively. On the flip side, the Blue Devils have have struggled in a 2 point defensive conversion rates allowing the 14th highest 2 [point scoring rate in the nation at 55.1%. Both these teams can play D, and both have similar length, but Im betting that the line is still just a tad to low and offers value to the over at up to 145. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UCF) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (40% or less), after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 50-23 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

The Pacers are leagues No.1 team in ppg allowed at 104.2 and own the 23rd ranked pace and just 22nd in offence  and base all their successes and failures on their D and nothing will change tonight against a Denver team that is extremely tired as they play their 3rd road game in 4 days. Im betting on the Pacers defensive prowess and the Nuggets tired legs to contribute a muted total score that fails to eclipse this total. 

 
INDIANA is 7-0 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 203.5 ppg scored.McMillan is 15-4 UNDER  in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of INDIANA with a combined average of 205.7 ppg scored.

NBA home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 154-83 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 51-18 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNDER 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable for tonight and if he plays could see limited time thanks to some less than serious nagging ankle issues.The Bucks suffered another setback Saturday night with reports that center Pau Gasol will miss the rest of the regular season with an injured left ankle. This could take away  from the Bucks flow tonight which will directly effect overall offensive output, which in turn will help keep this score at the lower end of the spectrum. Also considering that the Bucks own the leagues No.1 defensive efficiency rate , a Cleveland team that ranks 29th in pace and and 29th in offensive output could easily find themselves dragging along here in a sleeper game than many expect.

MILWAUKEE is 11-3 UNDER versus lower tier teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 11-1 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Texas converted 15-of-38 (39.5-percent) from three-point range during Tuesday's first-round win against South Dakota State and Im betting that will buoy them in a favorable matchup vs Xavier here today. 

TEXAS is 22-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread .TEXAS is 22-6 ATS  in home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread 

CBB favorite (TEXAS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games are 97-58 L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Alot of the public perceives the Washington Huskies as a slower paced defensive team, but when pushed as was the case against Utah State last time out, they can really rev up their pace. TodayIm expecting North Carolina to have a lot of offensive possessions thanks to their superior offensive rebounding ( Huskies rank 345th in the nation in O rebounding) .With that said look for the  Huskies to have to run and gun to keep up here in a game the linesmakers expect will be a white wash favouring N.Carolina. 

WASHINGTON is 10-2 L/12 OVER in road games versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season after 15+games  with a combined average score of 158.4 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Tennessee looked wobbly in their win vs Colgate last time out, and if that form continues here today they could find themselves on the sidelines after this the final buzzer goes off. Meanwhile, Iowa looked to be in top form against Cincinnati upsetting the Bearcats as underdogs to advance to the 2nd round. Note: IOWA is 11-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

At the end of the this season, Tennessee was starting to look vulnerable going just 7-4 SU and had failed to cover 8 of their L/12 and are not as potent looking as they were earlier in the season. Dont get me wrong their still a talented group, but as far as this line is concerned Im betting it slightly bloated thanks in part to their public popularity. With that said, lets take the points with a Iowa team that is currently in top form.

Barnes is 12-22 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games as the coach of TENNESSEE. 

Play on Iowa to cover 

The defending national champion Villanova Wildcats head into this 2nd round game against Purdue as underdogs. Villanova has to fight hard to get past a nasty St.Marys team that claws and scratches itself to being competitive. Meanwhile, Purdue had an easy go of it vs Old Dominion in a DD win.

This matchup, will feature a Purdue team ranked 12th in the  Big Ten in three point defense  going against a Villanova side that depends on taking foes out with downtown treys. Another negative for Purdue , is their inability to convert on FTs which is of ultimate importance in a game that is expected to be fairly close.  I know the Wildcats are not as strong as last years version, but they must be respected getting points vs a Boilermakers team that has not travelled all that well this season. Note:  Coach Jay Wright is 14-1 in its last 15 NCAA Tournament games.

Wildcats are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten.Wildcats are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games.

Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Boilermakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big East.Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

Note: G Phil Booth of Villanova  in the 70th game in his career against non-Big East opposition . . . is 63-7 SU for a (.899) win %. . His team has 13 straight NCAA tourney victories when he plays . One more here today vs a Gaels team that might have to experience an emotional letdown scenario at the worst possible time.

Play on Villanova to cover 

The Grizzlies are 7-3 in their last 10 home games and  it   began with a 108-106 victory  over Minnesota on Feb. 5.  Note: MINNESOTA is 12-1 OVER   revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season with a combined average of 238.5 ppg scored.With that said, Im betting the Wolves come here and force, and push the Grizzlies into a back and forth scoring fest , which the Grizzlies have looked comfortable in of late with their last four games seeing a combined 249.7 ppg scored with all four easily going over the set total.

Play on the OVER 

Utah ranks 2nd in defensive rating in the NBA  and just 19th in offensive output, thus making playing defensive hoops a priority. The Jazz have kept 4 of their L/7 opponents under the 98 point plateau and Im betting will be ready to once again play some staunch defensive hoops in this spot vs the Bulls. Considering the Bulls are ranked 27th in offence in the league this season behind the 20th ranked pace , I wont be surprised if their output is limited, which in turn will help keep this score on the low side of the total. 

 CHICAGO is 21-12 UNDER  when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 69-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Wells Fargo Arena - Des Moines, IA

I know these teams play stringent defensive ball, but Im betting on them eclipsing this total based on my projections which estimate both will hit the 60 point plateau in a back and forth affair. 

Beilein is 90-59 OVER after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers as the coach of MICHIGAN. 

MICHIGAN is 12-4 OVER (after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half over the last 2 season.

 CBB teams where the total is 119.5 or less (MICHIGAN/FLORIDA) - in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (69-73%) are 60-22 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

The matchup pits the two teams with the most wins remaining in the NIT bracket. 

My own projections make NC Greensboro as -3 favorite thus giving us value on this pickem line according to my estimations. 

Bison are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Bison are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Bison are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.Bison are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.

Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.Spartans are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Spartans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Spartans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Spartans are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on NC Greensboro to cover 

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL

  Tigers can  score, but their a below average team from beyond the arc. LSU shoots just 32.1 percent from downtown, which ranks No. 286 out of 353 Division I teams. With that said, Im betting Maryland slows down the explosive Tigers by derailing their transition game , and holding down their opponents from beyond the arc, which will translate into a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are expecting. 

MARYLAND is 11-4 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season with a combined average of 129.9 ppg scored. MARYLAND is 7-1 UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season with a combined average of 127.7 ppg going on the board. MARYLAND is 8-2 UNDER as an underdog this season with a combined average of 128.7 ppg scored. Turgeon is 7-0 UNDER  after a game forcing opponent to commit 5 or less turnovers as the coach of MARYLAND with a combined average of 127.3 ppg scored. 

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (MARYLAND) - in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 237-161 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER 

It looks like LeBron James  will play tonight for the struggling Lakers, but even with him on the floor the team does not look motivated or very fluent offensively . It must be noted the Lakers failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in 3 of their L/7 games. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is off a tenacious DD come from   behind victory vs Sacramento last time out for a win and will be in a natural letdown spot and on tired legs as they play their 5th straight road game. 

LA LAKERS are 21-5 UNDER  after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season with a combined average of 219.3 ppg going on the board.

BROOKLYN is 14-4 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored. ( Prior to those games the Nets looked tired and failed to eclipse the 100 point plateau in their first two road games of this trip)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 71-31 UNDER L22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - SAP Center - San Jose, CA

With dynamic G Justin Robinson expected back in the lineup for VTech after missing 12 games with an injury their opponents tonight St.Louis are in trouble. When the Hokies catalyst is in the lineup the team is 16-4 SU and must not be underestimated.Va Tech was upset  77-71 as a 13-point chalk  in their last meeting in 2017 and you can bet that this time this Hokies program and their coaching staff will be very well prepared and keep the pedal on the medal until the very end . Note: This is a 12 loss Billikens team that got hot at the end of the season, and truly is not in the same hemisphere of talent that the Hokies will have on the court. 

VIRGINIA TECH is 10-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.VIRGINIA TECH in their L/21 in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons have seen a +22.5 ppg differential. 

CBB team (VIRGINIA TECH) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite are 68-31 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Virginia Tech to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Colonial Life Arena - Columbia, SC

UCF finished sixth in the conference in scoring (72.1 points) but were first in field-goal percentage (46.3)  on 75.4 shooting from the floor behind college hoops super star Tacko Fall. I know VCU is a strong defensive side, but UCF can force anyone into a faster paced game then they like because of their ability to consistently convert and hold a lead.  Score and chase is the call here and a combined score that goes over the set total.

Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

UCF is 9-1 OVER  off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 139.3 ppg. UCF HC Rhoades is 27-9 OVER  when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1997.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (VA COMMONWEALTH) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), on Friday nights are 32-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Heat Marched into San Antonio and ended the Spurs 9 game home winning streak last time out, and  have shown a propensity to be dangerous in the followup  as they are  12-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. The Heat should also be wide awake after   the Bucks  came back from 20 points at half time last week and win by a 113-98 count and will be in revenge mode and looking . for redemption for that embarrassment ( . Note: MIAMI is 13-3 ATS  in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. I waited around for most of the day looking for +9 to show back up again, but to much sharp money coming in is sinking this number to the 8.5 to 8 range. Still plenty of value here with the Heat in their current form against a Milwaukee Bucks team that will be careful with their super star the Greek Freak (  Giannis Antetokounmpo) is suffering with a nagging ankle injury. 

MIAMI is 22-10 ATS  in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and is 12-4 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-22 ATS  in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA team (MIAMI) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 59-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover 

Liberty and Mississippi State played four common opponents this season.... Austin Peay, Alcorn State, Alabama and Vanderbilt. Mississippi State smashed  all of them, including a split against Alabama. Liberty lost to each of them. Mississippi State went 4-1 against the list with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points. Liberty went just 1-3, and all three losses coming by nine points. The one win was over Alcorn State by 22. State won that game by 23. According to Kenpom Mississippi State is the 21st best team in the nation with the 30th toughest strength of schedule and have a definite edge here.

 822 Mississippi State  to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - BOK Center - Tulsa, OK

Houston is in a nasty mood  entering this tournament after suffering a letdown and subsequent upset loss to Cincinnati in the AAC title game this past Sunday. I now expect them to come in here and lay down a beating on Georgia State for their 24th win and 26 games outside of their own conference.HOUSTON is 12-4 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots this season.HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. HC Sampson is 14-4 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games in all games he has coached for Houston. 

Hunter is 13-25 ATS  versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game as the coach of GEORGIA ST. 

Play on Houston to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Utah State is explosive offensively  averaging 79.2 points a game, however, playing against the Huskies zone defense, and slow down offense their going to have their hands full. 

WASHINGTON is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

UTAH ST is 10-23 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Washington to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - SAP Center - San Jose, CA

 Wisconsin has been a defence first team all season long, but have been even more staunch defensively of late, allowing 59.6 ppg in their L/5 while scoring just 64 ppg on average. Im betting they once again force their pace on the Ducks and will drag their opponent into a ugly affair that will stay on the low side of the total. Oregon has allowed just 64.2 ppg on the road this season, and will have no problem elbowing their way through this tilt. 

WISCONSIN is 6-0 UNDER in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less  points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 114 ppg scored.

Neutral court teams where the total is 119.5 or less (OREGON) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 31-7 UNDER L22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Virginia were upset by Florida State by a  69-59  count in last week's ACC tournament semifinals. Now with a  full week to rest and prepare and very healthy Im betting they come out like their hair is on fire and pound away with all guns blazing, which all by themselves will help this combined score go over the set total. Gardner Webb in turn will do just enough damage to get us to the promised land. Note:GARDNER WEBB is 6-0 OVER  in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing a shooting pct defense of 42% or less this season with a combined average of 162.8 ppg scored

. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (GARDNER WEBB) - after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 23-4 OVER L/22 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134,1 ppg scored. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (VIRGINIA) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less  turnovers/game, on Friday nights are 38-7 OVER L/22 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH

Colgate score just 57 points in a DD loss to Syracuse in their non conferenc schedule, and Im betting they will have issues scoring here vs Tennessee. My projections estimate a total combined score in the mid 140 range, this giving us value on the under. 

COLGATE is 9-1 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 135 ppg scored.Langel is 8-0 UNDER  in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or better  as the coach of COLGATE with a combined average of 132.2 ppg scored.

TENNESSEE is 10-2 UNDER  in the first round of the NCAA tournament with a combined average of 138.5 ppg. TENNESSEE is 6-0 UNDER  after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 137 ppg. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (COLGATE) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, in March games are 66-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Kansas State can play a top tier of hoops but they will be tested by a UC Irvine team that can put points up in a hurry. In 3 of their L/5 fames thye had outputs of 110, 86, 92 points and could easily force Kansas State out of their comfort zone and into a faster paced game they would like, 

KANSAS ST is 6-0 OVER as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 155.3 ppg scored. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (KANSAS ST) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Friday  are 26-4 OVER L/25 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

It's no secret that Indianas successes and failures on their ability-to play a top tier brand of the hoops.  The Pacers rank 1 in ppg allowed in the NBA 24th and pace and 22nd in offence. Tonight against the explosive Warriors their D, and conservative transitional game Im betting will be on full display. INDIANA is 21-6 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 211.2 ppg. INDIANA is 23-7 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.9 ppg. 

As the Warriors prepare for the play offs Defence, has become very important as  is evident by  GOLDEN STATE going 8-0 UNDER L/8 in March games this season  and 20-8 UNDER (after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. 

The Warriors are 1-17 on the UNDER as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game.

The Pacers are 0-10 L/10 UNDER as a road dog off a loss when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games are 69-31 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in March games are 106-53 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% long term conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - XL Center - Hartford, CT

St.Marys might of shutdown Gonzaga last time out , for  a huge 60-47 win, but Im betting they wont be able to the same thing to Villanova. Its one thing to play a tough defensive game in their own conference, against a team they were built to compete against,  but limiting this Wildcats group  will be more challenging and Im betting the Gaels will be forced to  have to open up or get completely blown off the floor. I know the Gaels are a trendy pick here by public bettors after the above mentioned upset of Gonzaga, and that their defensive play is a key to this total being this low, but all of that will go out the window, vs a Villanova side that can knock treys down at a 35%+ clip against much stiffer competition in the Big East and that brain bang you with multiple looks. 

VILLANOVA is 11-4 OVER  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 146.1 ppg. VILLANOVA is 13-4 OVER  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 154.5 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

Thanks to StMarys looking good at the end of their season which culminated with an astonishing upset  of Gonzaga for their conference championship, they are now a trendy pick for public bettors, thus giving us value on the line with the defending NCAA champion Wildcats. Im betting on key offensive cog and big game  star of Villanova Phil Booth to be the catalyst behind them winning tonight and more importantly getting us the cover.  Note: Booth in  the 70th game in his  career against non-Big East opposition  . . .  is 62-7 SU for a  (.899)  win %.Booth has made 16 consecutive free throws in NCAA Tournament competition,  with his only miss coming in his only FT attempt in the 2016 Round-of-64 Game against UNC Asheville. Booth has 13 turnovers in 14 career NCAA Tournament games covering more 319 minutes  of action for an amazing turnover ratio one turnover every 24.5 minutes of playing time. Booth is 5-for-6 (83.3%) from the three-point line in three NCAA Tournament Round-of-64 Games. His team has 12 straight NCAA tourney victories when he plays . One more here today vs a Gaels team that might have to experience an emotional letdown scenario at the worst possible time.

VILLANOVA is 6-0 ATS  in a NCAA tournament games over the last 2 seasons.VILLANOVA is 17-4 ATS when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons. 

ST MARYS-CA is 1-8 ATS  in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Villanova to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Veterans Memorial Arena - Jacksonville, FL

We have all heard about west Texas pride and tonight  Im betting this dog has fight. This Abilene Christian hoops program has only been eligible for this tourney for only two years, and has an  enrollment of about 3,600 making it an optimum small school success story entering the NCAA tournament.The Wildcats finished 27-6 overall with a 14-4 mark in the league and must not be underestimated here vs a young Kentucky team that has alot more pressure on them then their opponents. My projections make the Wildcats -18 favs here this giving us value on a slightly bloated public line. 

Play on Abilene Christian  plus the points 

College Insider Tournament - First Round

These teams are trending under on a base line total that does not project properly according to a team system vs system matchup power rankings system that I use. The lines-makers know how the public perceives these types of team Totals trends and plays to public sentiment. 'Ill take a contrarian view based on my own estimations which lean to this Total being eclipsed.

FLA ATLANTIC is 10-2 OVER  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 143.9 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Wells Fargo Arena - Des Moines, IA

Bradely is a team that plugs the paint and that trys to  make you beat them shooting 3s. They use a NBA-style philosophy on ball-screen defense that is highly efficient. they play tough and their 1-2-2 zone defence is a nightmare to play against. All I can say is that we have value with kind of team as a underdog vs a public team that has just to high a asking price on them at the moment. With that said, lets take the points.

BRADLEY is 9-1 ATS after allowing 55 points or less over the last 2 seasons and is 30-13 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival . 

Play on Bradley to cover 

Im one of those guys who   believes that the Oklahoma City Thunder have what it takes to hang with the best teams from both the west and the eastern conferences despite of a downturn of late and are worth of us laying points with them here tonight vs the Toronto Raptors.

Note: The Raptors are off a 128 -92 beatdown which is not a good omen for their chances here tonight vs a side trying to recalibrate and are desperate for positive momentum before the reg season winds down. 

Raptors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.Raptors are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

TORONTO is 3-13 ATS  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. TORONTO is 11-21 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.The Raptors are 4-27 ATS L/31 with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging more than 12 offensive rebounds. 

NBA Favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 32-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's are 124-32 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average point diff of 9.4 ppg. 

Play on Oklahoma city to cover 

The Bulls put up a nice defensive effort vs Phoenix last time out in a 116-111 win and Im betting they will continue to pay attention in transition, and force the run and gun Wizards out of their comfort zone with a more precise pace. This will result in a score that remains on the low side of the total.

The Wizards are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a favorite with less than two days rest when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 201 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 11-5-1 in Wizards last 17 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.

CHICAGO is 13-4 UNDER  in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season with a combined average of 214.4 ppg. CHICAGO is 9-1 UNDER in home games after a non-conference game this season with a combined average of 208.4 ppg scored.The Bulls are 4-20-1 UNDER L/25 as a dog with rest off a win in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 worse than their season-to-date average with non of the games eclipsing this total.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (47% or more ) after 42+ games, in a game involving two poor rebounding teams (-3 to -5.5 reb/game) are 26-4 UNDER L/22seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

 Washington defeated the Bulls  134-125  at Chicago last month and Im betting on a repeat performance tonight as they chase a play off birth in desperation mode.  The Wizards cannot afford losses .  Meanwhile, the Bulls are off a win last time out vs the Suns, but that not a great omen for them here as CHICAGO is 1-10 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. 

CHICAGO is also  2-10 ATS L/12 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season and a 4-13 ATS L/17 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.

Play on the Wash Wizards to cover 

NIT - First Round

Alabama is a  team that averages nearly 72 points per game , and against this level of opponent Im projecting they will breach that total number in around the 77+ range. Meanwhile the Norfolk State Spartans are one of the top three points teams in the country from a conversion rate perspective,  shooting 39.3 percent from 3-point range over the L/22 games (184-of-468). Another important factor for a over wager here is 551 free throws and 771 attempts are the second most in the D-I era and Im projecting them to score in the mid to upper 60s which translates to a total according to my estimations of a 145.5 or more giving us value with a over wager. 

Play on the OVER 

NIT - First Round- No. 3 seed Georgetown hosts No. 6 seed Harvard. 

Harvard has had a winning record in nine of the past 10 seasons under coach Tommy Amaker and has a experienced squad, with a never say die attitude and will not be easily defeated here. 

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Harvard is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games.Georgetown University is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games at homeHARVARD is 14-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.HARVARD is 21-9 ATS  vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72%or more  of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.HARVARD is 11-3 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

GEORGETOWN is 2-9 ATS  in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.GEORGETOWN is 5-16 ATS  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Harvard to cover 

NCAA Tournament - First Four - Univ. of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH

These teams play a controlled type of game, and if they were boxers they would be considered counter punchers. Im expecting a medium paced game especially in transition which will equate to a total combined score that remains on the low side of the total. 

NC CENTRAL is 17-6 UNDER  in all neutral court games  with a combined average of 125.6 ppg scored. NC CENTRAL in their L/25  in all tournament games have seen a combined average of 128.1 ppg scored.Moton is 8-1 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games as the coach of NC CENTRAL. with a combined average of 126.3 ppg scored.Moton is 16-4 UNDER  off a win against a conference rival as the coach of NC CENTRAL with a combined average of 128.3 ppg. 

N DAKOTA ST is 8-0 UNDER L/8as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points with a combined average of 121.5 ppg scored.

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (N DAKOTA ST) - off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog are 24-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

NCAA Tournament - First Four - Univ. of Dayton Arena - Dayton, OH

Temple is highly under rated as was evident when, beating Houston and had only one loss in the third-fourth quadrant (15-1 record). They barley got to the elimination game for the tournament but are highly dangerous in a game that is being lined as close and according to my rankings are dead even with Belmont thus giving us value on the line. Note: Temple is 9-2  SU in games decided by five points or fewer and are a perfect  4-0  in overtime games.

TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Neutral court teams (BELMONT) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, good offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season are 54-95 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

672 Temple  to cover