Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0

So it' do or die for the Spurs. I don' know if they can snatch this game outright but I' am betting they wont go down  without a fight.In their last trip to the hardwood hc Popovich was not on the sidelines as his wife had just passed away. I'm sure this contributed to less than focused effort from his players. Now with elimination on board and the team playing hard for their grieving coach a cover becomes a high probability betting option in my humble opinion.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-18 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.

NBAFavorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Are 14-40 ATS L5 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4- BOS Leads 2-1

The Celtics are a never say die side, and I've been back and forth in my thoughts on them of late, but one thing for sure is this is  a side, that just won't  lay down for anyone, no matter how short handed or banged up they are . That,s what I said before Friday nights game, when THE Bucks came out full of energy and romped to victory over the surprised looking Celtics . However with that said I know better than to discount the Celtics from bouncing back,vs any team including what has been a inconsistent Bucks side all season 

BOSTON is 19-6 ATS as an underdog this season.BOSTON is 18-5 ATS in road games against Central division opponents.
BOSTON is 17-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.BOSTON is 8-0 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. HC Stevens is 25-9 ATS in road games Stevens is 10-1 ATS L11 in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more .


MILWAUKEE is 10-22 ATS as a home favorite this season. 

NBA team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are just 22-31 which makes getting points here a viable betting option.


Play on Boston to cover

I'm going against the zig zag theory tonight and backing the jazz at home after ending a 7 game losing streak on the road vs Oklahoma evening this series series 1-1. The Jazz were one of the strongest teams in the league in the 2nd half of the season while oklama despite of being talented were highly inconsistent playing like championship contenders one night and chumps the next as has been the case in this play off series. I still like the thunders talent ,but playing here in Utah is not an easy  task, as is evident by the Jazz  impressive 28-13 home record. Meanwhile, the Thunder are barely above .500 on the road and look like they had some momentum snatched away from them in game 2 which was evident on the face of the players at the end of that last tilt. 

UTAH is 14-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-26 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-22 ATS  after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-18 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.

UTAH is 16-7 ATS  after playing 2 consecutive road games this season.

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 63-26 Ats L5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  team vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home loss against a division rival, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 11-26 L5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Jazz to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0

The Celtics are a never say die side, and I've been back and forth in my thoughts on them of late, but one thing for sure is this is  a side, that just won't  lay down for anyone, no matter how short handed or banged up they are . Their truly a blue collar team that Bean town can be proud of.   With that said, I'm betting they fight til the end here tonight and get us the cover, vs a viable but very inconsistent Bucks team, that looked drained in their game 2 of this series losing in ugly fashion. (120-106). MILWAUKEE is 2-11 ATS   in home games off a road loss this season.

MILWAUKEE is 9-22 ATS  as a home favorite this season.BOSTON is 12-1 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog this season. BOSTON is 18-4 ATS L/22 in road games against Central division opponents.

MILWAUKEE is 13-22 ATS   revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and is 17-31 ATS  L/50 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days .

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 35-7 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate  for bettors.

Play on Boston to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Philadelphia had their 17 game losing streak abruptly end last time out, vs the Heat in game 2 of this series by a 113-103 count as favs, and looked like they had exerted to much energy in their opening play off tilt, exhibiting irrational exuberance. Despite of the young,  and very talented Sixer's having limited play off experience , I'm expecting they temper their excitement  going forward and pace themselves better. With that said,   I'm betting on this talented group to bounce back on the road and notch a victory here in game 3.

PHILADELPHIA is 31-13 ATS  L/44 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making  36% or more  of their attempts. MIAMI is 2-12 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more this season. PHILADELPHIA is 35-21 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points and 25-14 ATS  after a loss by 10 points or more.

NBA  team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 4.4 ppg.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - OKC Leads 1-0

The Utah Jazz played tremendous basketball down the stretch to get into the post season, and were one of the better teams in the 2nd half. They did however , lose their finale, and the first game off this series and  its always a concern a team may have peaked to early , and that after that kind of impressive run and a emotional letdown scenario   could effect the teams cohesiveness at the worst possible time. You have to remember despite of all the accolades the Jazz have gotten from the media and pundits of late, they did have long stretches during this campaign, where they were unable to garner wins despite of their top tier defense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City , despite of being chalk full of talent with George, Anthony, and Westbrook, were highly inconsistent this season, but when they did play well, looked like possible championship contenders, as was the case in game 1 of this series, and  when they beat the Rockets in their own back yard, 108-102 on April 7 as 4 point dogs and back in late March when they went into Toronto and beat a very good Raptors side by a 132-125 count. From a matchup perspective , many believe that the Jazz, are the superior side, but I'm not one of them, and game 1 was an indicator of this . I feel the Thunder actually matchup very well, vs Utah, especially here on their own home court on a beatable line, especially with the books sticking to guns on the number. Note: Oklahoma City is a perfect 7-0 SU at home in this series over the last few seasons, and have won 11 of the L/13 meetings and the last 4 meetings overall, with two of the  last three by DD deficits. In the last game the final 116-108 score was not indicative of how much better the Thunder looked in this matchup. With that said, I'll back the Thunder here at home one more time in this series and hold judgement on backing them on the road depending on the line.

UTAH is 5-17 ATS L/22  in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last few  seasons.

 The Utah Jazz are 0-22 ATS L/22 as a dog vs a team that has averaged 45-plus rebounds and more than 38.5 points in the paint.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 19-43 ATS L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

 Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - NOR Leads 1-0

I was very impressed by the way the Pelicans played down the stretch, and was once again impressed by their tenaciousness effort in game 1 of this series , when they pulled off the road upset by a 97-95 score. I do know the Blazers are now in a must win situation ,and the lines-makers are sticking tight to their initial line projections. However, despite of the lines-makers stance I still feel we have  value with a underdog that matches up well vs the home favorite. Look for top tier  New Orleans'  guard  Jrue Holiday  and forward Anthony Davis to trump Blazers back curt duo of  Damian Lilliard and CJ McCollum .

NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS   in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season. NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS  L/21  in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game.NEW ORLEANS is 27-15 ATS in road games this season. NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS  off a road win this season.

The Pelicans are 17-0 as a road dog with more than one day of rest after holding their opponent to under 39.5% shooting from the field.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Tuesday nights are 42-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

Much to my surprise the Milwaukee Bucks came out and showed me they have some cohunes in game 1 of this series behind Giannis Antetokounmpo (35 points) and Khris Middleton (31). They played soft for much of the season, despite of being a talented group. But now they look like they have suddenly woken up, and are in a fighting mood. That's not a good thing for a banged up Celtics group that bases their current successes on hard work, as their key offensive weapon Kyrie Irving is out of the play offs because of injury. The season has taken it toll on the never say die Celtics, and last time out they exerted a great deal of energy in trying to dispose of the Bucs, despite of  finally winning in OT. I'm betting we see the effects of their exhausting work ethic here tonight as they play this tilt with very little gas left in the tank. I know the Bucks were a little sloppy in game 1, but if they clean things up, I won't be surprised if they come out of this with a SU win and more importantly for us a cover.

  Road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.Underdog is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings
Boston is 2-7 ATS L/9 as a home favorite. 

   MILWAUKEE is 15-4 ATS  L/19 off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last few seasons. BOSTON is 5-15 ATS L20  in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games  dating back to last season. BOSTON is 4-13 ATS  L/17  in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games.  

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 71-29 L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 72-26 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game  2

Philadelphia was the hottest team in the NBA down the stretch and have won 17 straight games. However, despite of that my own head to head power rankings suggest that there is value with taking points with a very physical blue collar team, in a play off game vs a side, that I can best describe as very talented but lacking grit and play off experience. The NBA post season can be very different from reg season play, especially from a physical stand point,  and that's what I'm betting on tonight .Look for  the nasty and tenacious Hassan Whiteside who will get increased minutes and inside presence  of  7 footer Kelly Olynyk to be the difference maker in a cover for our chosen side. I know the Sixers came out on fire and  took game 1 , but Im betting game 2 will be a different story from a  ATS perspective .

Heat are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game , which was the case  in game 1 of this series.

MIAMI is 24-9 ATS L/33 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 11-2 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 15-4 ATS  L/19 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.

The Heat are 19-0 SU/ATS off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc and it is after the All-Star break , which happened in game 1 of this series.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Utah Jazz played tremendous basketball down the stretch to get into the post season, and were one of the better teams in the 2nd half. They did however , lose their finale, and its always a concern a team may have peaked to early , and that after that kind of impressive run and a emotional letdown scenario   could effect the teams cohesiveness at the worst possible time. You have to remember despite of all the accolades the Jazz have gotten from the media and pundits of late, they did have long stretches during this campaign, where they were unable to garner wins despite of their top tier defense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City , despite of being chalk full of talent with George, Anthony, and Westbrook, were highly inconsistent this season, but when they did play well, looked like possible championship contenders, as was the case when they beat the Rockets in their own back yard, 108-102 on April 7 as 4 point dogs and back in late March when they went into Toronto and beat a very good Raptors side by a 132-125 count. From a matchup perspective , many believe that the Jazz, are the superior side, but I'm not one of them. I feel the Thunder actually matchup very well, vs Utah, especially here on their own home court on a beatable line. Note: Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 SU at home in this series over the last few seasons, and have won 10 of the L/12 meetings and the last 3 meetings overall, the last two by DD deficits.

UTAH is 5-16 ATS L/21  in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last few  seasons.

The Jazz were a sub  par 20-21 road team this season, while the Thunder played their best hoops at home where they were 27-14.

The Utah Jazz are 0-21 ATS L/21 as a dog vs a team that has averaged 45-plus rebounds and more than 38.5 points in the paint

NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (UTAH) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road loss against a division rival are 154-35 L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 6.9 ppg.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 19-42 for a go against  69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1


Since the beginning of the season the Boston Celtics have defied the experts, and played tough cohesive basketball, despite of key injuries and once again must be respected , even though they enter the play offs without injured star Kyrie " Flat Earth" Irving and limped into the post season . According to my own power rankings, the Celtics matchup very well against the inconsistent Bucks, a side that despite of being offensively talented have a tendency of playing soft, which is never good against this type of hardworking physical side. I know the Bucks beat the Celtics the last time they faced each other on April 3 106-102 @ Wisconsin, but it must be noted that BOSTON is 16-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.

BOSTON is 7-0 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. Boston 11-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season , which happened in their finale vs Brooklyn when most or all the regs rested an attribute to their never say die attitudes.

MILWAUKEE is 7-15 ATS L/22 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts . BOSTON is 26-12 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 13-4 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season. BOSTON is 27-15 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.


NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 57-9 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 9.8 ppg.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog, playing with 3 or more days rest are 24-6 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by just under 7 ppg.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2

New Orleans has roared into the play offs with 5 straight wins, including a 122-98 beat down of San Antonio in the last game of the season. They are currently playing with a lot of confidence and must respected here as underdogs. Pelicans HC Gentry is 17-4 ATS  in road games after scoring 120 points or more . Meanwhile, Portland won their L/game of the season but prior to  that lost 4 straight, and were playing inconsistent hoops . I'm betting on Pelicans Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo  clamping down on Lillard and McCollum with a  suffocating  brand  of defense and for this game to be closely contested with the points proving to be golden.

Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Pelicans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.Trail Blazers are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 Conference Quarterfinals games.

NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS  L/12 versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. NEW ORLEANS is 23-11 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.  NEW ORLEANS is 26-15 ATS  in road games this season.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover

San Antonio's defense  did not look good towards the tail end of the season and allowed 105 or more points in 7 off their L/10 games overall including 122 to New Orleans in their season finale. Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 road games.Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games. Meanwhile, Golden State also struggled on defense for long stretches this season, ranking 18th overall allowing 107.5 ppg . Their saving grace was and always will be their offense , which was ranked first in the league this season (113.5 ppg) , behind the 5th fastest pace ( 99.6).
Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 home games.Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.
What I'm betting happens tonight is that the Warriors will come out in full attack mode, and force the Spurs into keeping pace with some offensive fireworks of their own  or be blown of the court. This will lead to a higher scoring tilt than the lines makers expect.

GOLDEN STATE L/20 games when playing against a team with a winning record have seen a combined average of 218.3 ppg go on the board.

SAN ANTONIO is 9-0 OVER  in road games in April games dating back to last season.GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 OVER L/17 in all playoff games with the total combined average of 225.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

The No. 3 seed in the Western Conference is on the line Wednesday, when the Utah Jazz visit the Portland Trail Blazers. the Jazz have been playing great ball, but "Portland is a really tough place to play," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said during Tuesday's postgame press conference. "It is an important game from a seeding standpoint. So no matter what or how each team has preformed of late, it matters very little in under these circumstances.

It must also be noted that the Jazz played last night and really revved things up against the Warriors, beating them by wide DD margin . I'm sure their now on tired legs which is not necessarily a good omen, as they  are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing with no  rest.

I'm betting home court advantage will be the difference maker here tonight.

PORTLAND is 11-2 ATS  L/13 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) and 13-3 ATS  L/16 versus good shooting teams - making  46% or more of their shots.PORTLAND is 19-6-1  ATS  L/26 as a favorite this season and 12-3 ATS L/15  in home games vs. division opponents . Favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 56-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 9.7 ppg.

NBA Underdogs (UTAH) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are just 95-151 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover

The Denver Nuggets visit the land of lakes this Wednesday night  to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves,  in a do or die battle that will see the winner advance to the postseason while the loser heads to the wasteland of the  offseason . From a matchup perspective, I feel these teams are fairly evenly matched, but home court advantage is definitely important factor that I'm betting favors the Wolves. I also feel strongly that Denver has had to exert a lot of energy in their quest for a post season appearance than the Wolves, and are exhausted entering this Thunder dome confrontation. That was never more evident than in the Nuggets last tilt,  when they clawed their way back  from a  11-point, second-half deficit and somehow notched a  88-82 win  while holding Portland to  just 13 points in the fourth quarter thanks to a massive physical assault  that I know took its toll on this squad.
Tonight as this game progresses, look for the home town crowd and the Nuggets  emotional and physical exhaustion to be key factors in them failing to cover here.

MINNESOTA is 32-18 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game.MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS   in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. Wolves HC Thibodeau is 16-3 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders as the coach of MINNESOTA.  DENVER is 7-15 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more  PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 6-48 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors losing SU by 9.3 ppg.

NBA Underdogs (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 95-151 ATS L/22 seasons for a 62% go against  conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover

The Golden State Warriors are limping into the post season and not looking as cohesive as they have in the past, as is evident by losing 9 of their L/16 games overall, and have  failed to cover 13 of their L/19 overall, thanks to a lack of defensive prowess and recently allowed 126 points in back-to-back losses to Indiana and New Orleans. . Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz have really progressed this season,  and  rank 13th in the NBA in offensive efficiency (108.5) and lead the league in defensive efficiency (97.9) since mid-January. In recent head to head matchups vs the Dubs the Jazz have  produced two straight lopsided beat downs  including delivering a  129-99 proverbial  boot in the face in the champs last visit to Salt Lake City on Jan. 27. A repeat is not out of the question.

The  Jazz despite of a guaranteed play off spot can still move up and grab the No.3 seed from Portland who are just one game ahead of them in the standings, and  are a viable betting option here at home with momentum and motivation as contributing positive factors. I know its never easy betting against the Warriors, but right now they look asleep at the proverbial wheel and are playing with little or no urgency as a group.

GOLDEN STATE is 2-13 ATS L/15 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%)  .UTAH is 12-3 ATS  L/15 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game . ( Utah 112 Opp 99.6)

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a road win against a division rival are 2-28  L/21 seasons with the average margin loss coming by 9.9 ppg.

NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite are 20-55 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

The Miami Heat enter this game off a ugly loss vs the NY Knicks last time out, and will now be very motivated to bounce back vs the Oklahoma City as they need to get some momentum going before the play offs begin and also get redemption for a loss where  they overlooked their opponent. Add to that the Heat have revenge on board for a loss to the Thunder, 105-99 as 6 point road dogs earlier this season  and you have a viable home dog to back. Meanwhile, the Thunder could easily find themselves in a letdown situation after exerting a lot of energy in a 108-102 upset win vs the Houston Rockets last time out, and  could see their flow interrupted by the Heat side, that has the ability to play a tough physical style of defensive ball. Note: The Thunder are just 3-5 SU L/8 overall and have proven to be highly inconsistent this season despite of their talent levels.

Thunder are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. Heat are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.

MIAMI is 11-3 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-25 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record this season and just  7-16 ATS ( when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-21 ATS   after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.

NBA team vs the money line (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more 43-18 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 54-19 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Heat to cover

 The Raptors (57-22) conclude their home schedule Sunday when they play the Orlando Magic (24-55) at the Air Canada Centre. Last time out the Magic were embarrassed  losing to the Charlotte Hornets by a 137-100 count on Friday night. They had 4G league players in the lineup, and the kids did not take advantage of those minutes, and HC Vogel was very upset, saying they missed their opportunity. QUOTE:"Our four young guys, they got opportunities to play extended minutes and earn jobs and make a name for themselves, and they did not take advantage of that opportunity tonight," Vogel said. END QUOTE: I know Orlando does not have much to play for, but pros don't like to be embarrassed , and withAaron Gordon and Nikola Vusevic upgraded to probable for this contest the Magic must be considered viable underdogs vs a team more interested in staying healthy then delivering a beat dwn vs a downtrodden side that I'm sure their overlooking.

  Magic are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Magic are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600

Magic are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Orlando is 2-1 SU L/3 visits to Toronto.

The Raptors are 0-15 ATS at home off a win as a home favorite when they allowed fewer than 90 points in each of their last two games , losing SU up 10 times, with the largest margin of victory coming by no more than 6 points.

NBA Home favorites (TORONTO) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 9-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Orlando to cover

Both Detroit and their hosts today the Memphis Grizzlies are out of the play offs. The difference between both sides, is that Memphis is banged up and an overall downtrodden group and looked like they have mailed it completely of late losing 4 straight , with 3 by ugly DD scores, which includes a sleep 94-92 home loss vs lowly Sacramento last time out. 

Meanwhile HC VanGundy of the Pistons has seen his team win 8 of their L/10 with the two losses coming to top tier squads Philadelphia and Houston, and overall still look motivated and playing like they care. I'm expecting they come out here and continue to play with a chip on their shoulders as they look to finish off their season on a high note.


MEMPHIS is 9-19 ATS in non-conference games this season. 

Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400
Pistons are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record


NBA Road favorites (DETROIT) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 33-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover

The play off bound Indiana Pacers are very under rated and are very dangerous according to my power rankings and must be respected here as short favorites on the road. With the Cleveland Cavaliers a possible play off matchup for them , I'm betting they will want to build positive momentum going into the post season and will be ready to run and gun vs a very inconsistent  below .500 Charlotte Hornets side today.

Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. Eastern Conference.Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Hornets are 8-21-3 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

INDIANA is 9-1 ATS  n road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons ( They lost to the explosive Raptors last time out, playing back to backs a night after beating the Warriors)

INDIANA is 11-3 ATS  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents this season.INDIANA is 11-2 ATS in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 22-11 ATS   versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season. INDIANA is 24-12 ATS as a favorite this season.

CHARLOTTE is 1-8 ATS   as a home underdog this season. CHARLOTTE is 9-24 ATS  as an underdog this season.The Hornets are 1-16 ATS/0-17 SU as a dog off a road win when they allowed 100+ points in each of their last two games.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 30-95 L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 38-85 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

Two teams that could be potential first-round opponents in the upcoming NBA playoffs  go head to head this  Saturday night when the New Orleans Pelicans visit  the Golden State Warriors in Oakland . With that said, I expect the Warriors to primed and ready to send a message their visiting opponents here today before the post season starts. I know the defending champs have not looked as explosive as they usually do of late, but now as the play offs approach I expect we will see them amp up into top gear. Yes, Steph curry is out, but this Warriors team even with him missing must be respected, especially against a side on tired legs after playing last night in Phoenix winning 122-103. Note: The Pelicans have lost three straight to Golden State this season by an average of 11 points and have lost 10 straight meetings in this series.  Also NBA teams (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite are just 19-55 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.  

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 49-4 SU L/22 seasons winning by an average of 11 ppg.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, second half of the season are 34-4 L/5 seasons winning by an average of 10.6 ppg. ( Underrated/Dangerous  Indiana upset the Warriors last time out)

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 46-5 winning by an average of 10.5 ppg.

Play on Golden State to cover

Denver enters this game having won 4 straight games and 6 of their L/8 overall.Right now, The Nuggets remain in ninth spot in their post season chase because the Timberwolves own tiebreakers over them. But win the last three games, including the season finale in Minnesota next week? The Nuggets are in the playoffs. With that said, you can bet the Rocky Mountain hoops crew will leave everything on the floor tonight as they cannot afford a loss. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers have lost 3 of their L/4 games and  most probably out of post season contention and also look to be at a disadvantage today, as Danilo Gallinari (hand), Milos Teodosic (foot), Jawun Evans (groin), Avery Bradley (groin) and Patrick Beverley (knee) are all banged-up. I'm betting on the hungrier side with play off aspirations coming out of this with a victory.

DENVER is 38-17 ATS L/54 in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread which happened last time out vs Minnesota..

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) ARE 34-19 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Any team vs the money line (DENVER) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 52-11 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

The NY Knicks have had another below .500 season, but believe it or not they have actually  not been that bad at home overall, going 18-20 SU as hosts . Meanwhile, their guests the Miami Heat have had a decent season, and are play off bound,  but are just 18-22 SU on the road during their campaign, and find themselves more interested in staying healthy than beating up on a downtrodden side.  I know the Knicks have looked lifeless of late and  have lost six of seven,  but I expect them to look for a little bit of redemption after being embarrassed  in their worst offensive output of the season in Tuesday's 97-73 home loss to Orlando.  The Knicks were booed off the court in that above mentioned tilt, and knowing how pros don't like to be embarrassed I expect a little bit of bounce back here against a Miami side that they have revenge for after being thumped by them the last time they played in South Florida a couple of weeks ago. So lets plug our noses, close our eyes and just pull the proverbial trigger on the Knicks to cover vs what should be a disinterested Heat.

MIAMI is 2-11 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more this season.Heat are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. NYK HC Hornacek is 38-20 ATS  in his career after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.

NBA  Underdogs (NEW YORK) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 28-7 ATS L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 28-16 L/21 seasons for a 63% SU conversion rate.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Miami is play off bound, and will want to sharpen up on their top tier brand of defensive basketball. I expect they will be very focused on being defensively responsible here this evening and for them not to be interested in a run and gun style of play, as they look to stay fresh for the post season. The Heat are 4th in in the league in points allowed and 27th in PACE. Meanwhile, NYK, despite of wanting to push for a more wide open attack tonight after suffering a ugly 97-73 set back last time out, will still have to contend with very good D, in a game I'm betting stays on the low side of the number.

The Knicks have gone under 14 straight times at home off a loss as a favorite in which they scored fewer than 80 points with the combined average score of those tilts clicking in at 171.9 ppg, with the highest combined score reaching just 188 points.

Under is 5-1-1 in Heat last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 19-6-2 in Knicks last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.Under is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in New York.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 57-29 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind/

Play UNDER

The Bucks have clinched a play off spot and are feeling pretty good about themselves right now, but can still grab a higher seeding with some late season wins , so a motivated effort should be expected. Meanwhile, the Nets are 28 games under .500 and have nothing left to play for, except a higher lottery pick,  and currently look to be in full tank mode after a lackluster 121-95 loss at Philadelphia on Tuesday where they looked asleep at the proverbial wheel and now should be expected to provide little fight tonight on the road in Wisconsin. The Bucks have had their way with the Nets recently winning both meetings this season by lopsided DD scores, and have garnered 10 straight wins this series, and I'm betting one more victory and cover are on tonight's agenda.

Nets are 7-23-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Favorite is 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.

The Nets are 0-12 ATS /SU losing SU by 15.3 ppg  as a road dog off a 10+ loss facing an opponent averaging less than 40 rebounds per game like the Bucks .

NBA team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 10.6 ppg.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

The visiting Philadelphia 76ers and their hosts the Detroit Pistons are currently playing at a very high level entering this tilt. The young men from Philly are 10-0 L/10 and have covered 9 straight , with the Motown crew having won 7 of their L/8 and covered all 8. Tonight in a head on collision I like the travellers to get the job done vs a side that needs a win desperately to keep their extremely slim play off hopes alive. It must be noted that the Pistons have exerted a great deal of energy lately to keep their dreams alive, and despite of 2 days rest could easily fade  here against a very well conditioned side. Philadelphia took each of the first three meetings, including a 114-78 crusher Jan. 5 at home and its obvious matchup well against the Pistons, and they  get my backing again.

 PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS  L/17 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts . DETROIT is 16-33 ATS  L/49 when the line is +3 to -3 over dating back to last season.

 NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road wins are just 30-49 L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 62% for bettors on the blind.

 Play on Philadelphia to cover

The Portland Trail Blazers have already clinched  a postseason spot and now staying healthy will be a priority, which will translate into what I'm betting will be a slight lack of motivational effort and  extra drive which will help us cover the number with Dallas this evening. It must be noted that despite of Portland's very explosive March where they went 12-3 SU, they have shown a reversion to the norm,  especially with  their formerly hot down town shooting, and enter this game having cooled down considerably  now converting a  league-worst 27.9 percent over the last six games. Also with road  games coming up against San Antonio and Houston, a look ahead situation is not out of the question for the Blazers, and gives further credence to my home underdog stance this evening.

DALLAS is 29-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. DALLAS is 21-11 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or les turnovers/game this season.DALLAS is 13-4 ATS  L/17  in home games against Northwest division opponents. DALLAS is 24-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 38-15 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.( Portland beat Dallas as road chalk  107-93 back on Jan 26 th)

Play on Dallas to cover

The Warriors remain a little banged up but  most of the their key cogs like Durant, Thompson, Green are expected to play tonight with only Steph Curry on the sidelines. I know the Warriors don't have alot to play for from a standings perspective as  they are guaranteed the No. seed in the West, but cohesiveness now becomes a question mark, because of a late season tumble because of injuries, and lackluster play, and its now imperative they get into a rhythm before the play offs begin. I also know Oklahoma State will be sky high to take down the Warriors tonight, but I'm betting that will not be an easy feat , as the Dubs would love nothing more than to send a message to opponents before the post season arrives.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-17 ATS   revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season( Golden State won the last meeting back on Feb 24,  112-80)  . OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-39 ATS  as a favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-24 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

NBA team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - after scoring 105 points or more in a win over a division rival, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 27-5 L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 41-82  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors

NCAA Tournament - Championship Game - Alamodome - San Antonio, TX

Its been said for a long time , that defense wins championships and I'm a proponent of this convectional thinking in general terms, especially in a game like this where I'm getting points with the better defensive side (Michigan). Villanova is strong two way team, that shines because of their experience and ability to play different styles of ball. The Cats key strength however, is their top ranked offense. Meanwhile, Michigan despite showing their ability to explosively offensive, scoring 95 and 99 points in 2 of their last 3 wins to get here, are a physically intimidating side that can wear you down in the paint and are like hoovers around the rim, which makes them very under rated in this spot. I'm betting the Wolverines D, is the difference maker here today on the line.

MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS L/6  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better )  games this season.

 MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS   versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. MICHIGAN is 22-6 ATS   versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.

Play on Michigan to cover

The Pistons play off hopes are slim, as they are 5 games behind Milwaukee for the final spot in the East, but they still have not given up the chase for the post season, with six games remaining and have won 4 straight and are  6-1 in its last seven games  and enter this tilt vs Brooklyn with a full head of steam.   Detroit during their current hot run are  averaging 109.1 points, shooting 46.6 percent and getting 49.4 rebounds while limiting their  turnovers ( 11.9 ppg).  I know the Nets are playing decently of late, but my own power rankings and player vs player and system vs system matchups  suggest they do not matchup well vs this type of team and are on tired legs after playing last night and at a dsiadvantage.

Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Nets are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (DETROIT) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 34-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BROOKLYN) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 5-28 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors.

Road favorites (DETROIT) - a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team, on Sunday games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to cover

The  Philadelphia 76ers  enter this game vs their hosts Charlotte  with a full head of steam this  Sunday afternoon. The Sixer's have won 9 in a row  and will be out to  sweep the season series vs a side that they matchup very well against as was evident by winning all 3 previous games this season by double digits. Charlotte has lost 2 straight and failed to cover 3 straight and ar eon tired legs after playing last night , which adds to their fade material status today.

The 76ers outscored the Hornets 102-51 on 3-pointers in the last two meetings, going 34 of 77 from beyond the arc and a repeat performance is a high probability outcome in this spot considering both sides current form.

PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. PHILADELPHIA is 25-6 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

CHARLOTTE is 6-25 ATS   versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHARLOTTE is 2-13 ATS  L/15 as a home underdog .

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, playing on back-to-back days are 7-36 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 7.7 ppg.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after successfully covering the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 26-4  L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by more than 11 ppg.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

The defending NBA Champion Golden State Warriors are still a little banged up, and on a current 3 game losing streak. Their not as cohesive as usual, and playing uninspired basketball. Can the Warriors turn the switch and go into over drive. Yes, off course they can, but I'm betting the goal right now is to remain healthy heading towards the play offs and to stave of fatigue. With that said, if the Dubs win tonight, I'm betting  they do it without going into top gear, and for the hardworking young Kings to play this game like its their own version of a championship game, which makes getting points here a viable wagering opportunity.

GOLDEN STATE is 30-42 ATS  in all games this season.SACRAMENTO is 17-7 ATS  L/24 as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points dating back to last season.

Warriors are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Warriors are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

NCAA Tournament - Final Four - Alamodome - San Antonio, TXT

 The East Region’s No. 1 seed, Villanova, meets the Midwest Region’s No. 1 seed, Kansas.  The  Wildcats No.1 offense, leading the nation in scoring with 87 points a game and are converting at a 50% clip from the floor while making almost 12 three-pointers a game. They  are hoovers around the rim and  rank fourth nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio. This is needless to say a behemoth side, that deserves our respect, yes even against a solid Kansas side. The wildcats can also play great D, when they need to and I expect that will be the difference here today behind big men ,  Spellman and Eric Paschall.

It must also be noted that getting up the same emotion that they displayed against Duke last time out in  their Ot win to advance to the Final 4 will also effect them. Playing at that level again will be a super human feat, and despite of the Jayhawks sometimes amazing gold like performances, this wont be the case in this emotional letdown scenario.

Bill Selfs Kansas has not done all that well from a ATS perspective versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on  the season, going just 46-60 ATS.

VILLANOVA is 12-4 ATS L/18 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.VILLANOVA is 24-9 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record this season. VILLANOVA is 11-1 ATS   after 1 or more consecutive unders this season.VILLANOVA is 9-1 ATS after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better this season.VILLANOVA is 14-3 ATS   in non-conference games this season.VILLANOVA is 11-2 ATS  when playing on a neutral court this season.

CBB Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (VILLANOVA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 70-30 ATS L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (KANSAS) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after allowing 75 points or more 3 straight games are 11-28 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on Villanova

NCAA Tournament - Final Four - Alamodome - San Antonio, TX

This will be the fourth straight time I'm betting against Loyola Chicago. I was wrong the other three times, but the fourth  time I'm betting is a charm. There is a old Albert Einstein quote that comes into play here. "Doing  the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a sign of insanity". So call me crazy, because I'm betting that Loyola Chicago will have finally met their match. Everyone loves an underdog, and I'm a big advantage player. However, with that said, the Wolverines are so much deeper and have just as much chemistry as Loyola Chicago . Lay the points here with extreme prejudice.

It must be noted that Loyola Chicago only had 4 offensive rebounds in their last game vs KState and if they didn't hit a remarkable 57% of their FG chances they would not be here. Michigan's D, and  rebounding and explosive 3 point shooting are going to be the huge difference makers here.

MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less   points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. MICHIGAN is 21-6 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS L/11 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  80% or better) after 15 or more games. MICHIGAN is 15-4 ATS L/19  in all neutral court games.

Play on Michigan to cover ( Generals Club Top Ticket -Double Down)

Star G John Wall is expected to return to the Washington Wizards today against Charlotte, after a lengthy absence because of  injury . This I'm betting will rejuvenate a sometimes unmotivated group of Wizards. They can clinch a play off spot if they get a win today and also get revenge for a Feb 23rd loss here at home by a ugly 122-105 count. I'm betting the Wizards get their payback.

Charlotte has lost 6 of their L/9 on the road and have failed to cover 20 of their L/34 road games this season.Hornets are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Hornets are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

WASHINGTON is 9-0 ATS L/9  in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last few seasons.( lost to the Pistons last time out as 2.5 point road chalk-102-93) CHARLOTTE is 9-22 ATS  as an underdog this season with 7 point deficit over that period.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, second half of the season are 33-4 SU L/5 seasons for a89% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by more than 10.5 ppg.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in March games are 45-2 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors with the average victory coming by 10 ppg.

Play on Washington to cover

Sacramento has been off for a couple days since getting stepped on by Dallas as chalk in their last home tilt on Tuesday . Their coach Dave Joerger  was really peed off after that tilt as his players looked inattentive in that game,  during what has been a bizarre week of riots in Sacramento after another deadly police shooting. The HC appreciates the stance his players have taken to support the protesters, but has reminded his men that they must be professionals. QUOTE: "We respect that, but we've still got to come in, be professionals, and bring the same juice, the same energy every night." END QUOTE:
Tonight I'm expect the Kings to bring some energy to the floor and get us the cover vs a  tired Indiana group playing their 4th game in 6 days and their second in a row on the road after taking out a banged up Golden State side in their last effort (92-81) 

Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference.Kings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in March games are 105-41 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Sacramento Kings to cover

NIT Championship Game - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY

Utah is an experienced group that starts four seniors and a junior and must be respected here in what the linesmakers expect will be a close game. Both Penn State and Utah play shut down D, but with a key offensive cog Mike Watkins ( 3rd leading scorer) out for the Lions, the Utes D, can be even more focused. However, with that said, I'm betting the difference maker  comes via the charity stripe where Utah is the superior side. QUOTE: . “I don’t think there’s a team that shoots more free throws in practice,” END QUOTE: coach Larry Krystkowiak said.

Play on Utah to cover

Boston might be banged up but they have proved a resilient bunch and better than the sum of their parts over and over again this season, and must never be underestimated.  QUOTE: The way a team plays as a whole determines its success. You may have the greatest bunch of individual stars in the world, but if they don’t play together, the club won’t be worth a dime.”  Babe Ruth :END QUOTE

Utah beat Boston earlier this season, and short handed or not the Celtics have revenge on board, and a tenacious never say attitude to go along with it and is 14-3 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. BOSTON is 25-11 ATS  in road games this season and have won 6 of their L/7 away from home.

Boston buys into a team concept that's what makes them so good. You might not always see it in the final score, but you can definitely see it on the floor and with their work ethic  game in and game out. Taking point with them, even when their banged up is not reaching and a viable investment opportunity.

BOSTON is 21-12 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record this season. BOSTON is 14-4 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 90-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off 3 or more consecutive road wins 51-20 L/22 seasons for a 73% SU conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston Celtics to cover

Memphis upset Northwest-contending Minnesota 101-93 on the road Monday night and showed some fight despite of their imminent lottery pick situation . With Portland playing the second of back to backs this Wednesday  on tired legs, and most likely over looking  the lowly the Grizzlies another possible upset could be in the cards and more importantly a cover. It must also be noted that after losing 2 consecutive games , Portland has pulled out two back to back wins of less than 5 points , and are less cohesive then they were during a 12 game win streak.

MEMPHIS is 48-29 L/76 ATS   in home games off an upset win as a road underdog.

Injury update. D Lillard is expected to miss this game vs Memphis.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off an upset win as a road underdog are 106-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less are 25-10 SU L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. ( Memphis lost both games in this series at home back in November)

Play on Memphis to cover

These teams played last week with the Clippers pulling of the road win, now in the rematch the Bucks will primed to pull off upset in revenge mode. With both teams seeking a play off appearance you can bet this will be a battle, which makes taking points here a viable wagering option.  

Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

The Clippers are 0-12 ATS/SU  with rest off a win as a dog when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 40 rebounds per game like Milwaukee.

NBA   team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 41-16 SU L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 33-17 ATS  L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

Dallas enters this game in full lottery pick tank mode, as is evident by a current 5 game losing streak. Meanwhile, Sacramento is 6-7 SU (9-4 ATS) in their L/13 games, and still playing spirited basketball. From a power ranking perspective my numbers suggest the  Kings are the superior side here on their own home floor.  In other words the lesser of two evils resides with the hosts.

DALLAS is 1-10 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

The Kings are 13-0/SU ATS covering by  as a home favorite with less than two days rest after their opponent shot over 50% from the field.

DALLAS is 4-12 ATS   versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

Sacramento has won 3 of the L/4 games here in Sacramento.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover

The Pelicans (43-31) on 2 days rest will be rejuvenated and  primed to take on the visiting Portland Trail Blazers (45-28) on Tuesday night at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans have won four of the last five meetings against the Trail Blazers, including the last two -- a 123-116 victory on Dec. 2 at Portland and a 119-113 win on Jan. 12 in New Orleans. From a power rankings perspective, despite of the Blazers red hot form the Pelicans match up well against this team in a systems analysis and get the nod here on their own home floor.

Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.

NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS  versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days .

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 13-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

The Wizards are struggling and need wins badly and are currently one game ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks and 1 1/2 games ahead of the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference . Tonight I'm betting the  Wizards will be ready for a San Antonio team playing much better basketball of late. The Spurs despite of their improved play, had a  6-0 home stand go flat when they went on the road and lost to a inconsistent Milwaukee team last time out for their 4th straight road loss. It must also be noted that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. The Spurs have looked like two different teams, when playing as host and than as visitors which must be worrisome for HC Popovich and company. After getting blind sided by the lowly NY Knicks last time out, I'm betting this sometimes unmotivated group of Wizards has some extra jump here  tonight and  take out the Spurs in this spot.

WASHINGTON is 36-20 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last few seasons.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are just 36-73 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover

NIT - Semifinals - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY

 The fourth seeded Hill toppers took out 3 POWER 5 teams to get here ( Oklahoma City, USC and Boston College) including the last two on the road and must be respected here vs a Utah side that my power ranking suggests they matchup well against.  WKU has 12 wins this season against programs with at least 20 victories: Old Dominion (3 times), UAB (2), Marshall (2), Purdue (1), Wright State (1), Nicholls (1), USC (1) and Oklahoma State (1).

W KENTUCKY is 13-2 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season. W KENTUCKY is 9-1 ATS   when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season.W KENTUCKY is 9-0 ATS  after a combined score of 155 points or more this season.W KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS  in all tournament games this season. W KENTUCKY is 13-4 ATS L/17 in a post-season tournament games.

Play on Western Kentucky to cover  

North Texas enters this game on fire scoring 90 plus points in three straight wins, and are a side that must be respected after playing top tier  teams like Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State and looking very competetive against them. Meanwhile, San Francisco has played three hard fought closely contsted affairs to get to this best of three CBI finals series, and are in alot of ways lucky to be here. Their one signature win came this season against St.Mary's a team that was over rated in the rankings and missed the NCAA tournament. Here in todays matchup, I'm betting that San Francisco does not have enough offensive weapons to easily come out of this with a win, and getting points with an explosive  Men Green side is viavble investment opportunity. Note: SF HC Smith is 0-8 ATS  in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games, andSmith is 1-9 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive wins as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO. McCasland is 11-3 ATS in his career as a road underdog or pick as the coach of N TEXAS
.N TEXAS is 13-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

CBB team (SAN FRANCISCO) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 5 points or less against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 19-54 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on North Texas to cover

 Denver is seven games above .500,  and are still not guaranteed a play off position, and are one game behind Utah in the  Western Conference Northwest Division. Needless to say every game is of the utmost importance . This kind of desperate  side that validates a betting stance. I know Philly has been hot, but Denver is no pushovers and must be respected here with so much on the line when it comes to post season implications. Add to that the Nuggets have revenge on board for a loss at home to the 76ers back on Dec 30th of this season. DENVER is 15-6 ATS   revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season

Note: The 76ers have lost 5 of their L/7 SU vs above .500 opposition.

Nuggets are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. 76ers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Nuggets are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS  L/34 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 90-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Denver to cover

Utah has not looked all that cohesive in their last few games losing twice, once to lowly Atlanta and in OT last time out vs San Antonio and in the one victory they looked far from dominating vs a Dallas squad in tank mode. In this spot vs  a banged up Golden State team, the lines-makers have decided they deserve to be more than 5 point road favorites. But I'm betting that number is a little bloated, considering how deep the Warriors truly are. With Thompson, Durant, Curry out of the lineup the Warriors can no longer be considered super human, but now just a average to below average side. But when co-coordinating similar lines, and comparing them to my own power rankings , we still have value with a home pup with revenge on board for a ugly 129-99 loss earlier this season to todays visitor Utah.

Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Jazz are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference. Jazz are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Golden State.

UTAH is 14-27 ATS  L/41  in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last  few seasons.

Note: Warriors Draymond Green is upgraded to probable Sunday.

NBA  Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 48-6 SU L/21 seasons for 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover

NCAA - Midwest Regional Final - Centurylink Center - Omaha, NE

We have Two Hall of Fame coaches, two blue blood programs, and loads of talent ready to go head  in Sunday’s showdown at the CenturyLink Center. What I'm betting here today is that Coach Ks zone defense is going to get run over, by a Bill Self coached team that knows how to deal with it well. According to my player vs players and system vs system power rankings Duke does not match up well here and I won't be surprised if Kansas pulls of the upset. But just to be safe lets take the points.

KANSAS is 15-4 ATS   in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or better dating back to last season. KANSAS is 9-2 ATS   when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

Jayhawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Play on Kansas

NCAA - East Regional Final - TD Garden - Boston, MA

Villanova was my pick to win the enchilada this season, so I'm not about to  jump off the bandwagon now. Yes, they are playing a good basketball team in Texas Tech, but according to my power rankings and systems adjustments the Wildcats are the far superior team, and so diverse in their abilities are extremely hard to play against, that laying 7 or less points does not phase me. In other words whatever the Raiders throw at the Cats, they will easily be able to counter and take over any situation and turn it in their favor behind a boatload full of talent. I know Raiders guards Culver and James, look unstoppable, but they have yet to face this type of opponent this season and could easily get run over . Villanova has been v explosive  on offense and are currently ranked 1st in the nation in scoring, with 87.0 ppg,   ranking 5th in shooting (50.3%), 10th in 3-point shooting (40.5%), and have 47 treys in this tournament so far , which is not a good omen for a Texas Tech side, that has  looked below average guarding the downtown three, as was the case in their win vs Purdue last time out, allowing  s  38.9% conversion rate  from long range.

VILLANOVA is 11-4 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season. VILLANOVA is 9-1 ATS   versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season.VILLANOVA is 8-2 ATS  L/10 versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less this season. VILLANOVA is 13-3 ATS   in non-conference games this season.VILLANOVA is 8-1 ATS   after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better this season

CBB Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (VILLANOVA) - an explosive offensive team (76 or more  PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games are 103-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Villanova to cover

Michigan looked like the greatest College basketball team in the world last time out in their win vs Texas A&M. I think anyone who watched was in awe. It was an amazing site to behold, as everything the Wolverines touched turned to gold. Now I'm expecting a reversion to the norm and a pretty big drop off after that amazing performance vs a solid Florida State D. It's just the law of physics at play, as you cannot put out that much positive energy without creating a situation without negative energy creating a reversal of flow which I'm betting will be the case here in this tilt for Michigan .

Today against a tall athletic Florida State side, being as fluid for Michigan is going to be a challenge. Watching the Seminoles superior athletes outduel a pretty good Gonzaga group has me confidently betting on them to make a game of this here today. This has been a crazy NCAA tournament, with a lot of upsets and no team is safe, or even close to a sure bet, so I'm not swayed by the Wolverines current form as day could to turn to night  quicker than many might anticipate.

FLORIDA ST is 10-2 ATS  in non-conference games this season.FLORIDA ST is 20-5 ATS   as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick.

Play on Florida State to cover

Charlotte has looked explosive at times this season, and crapped the bed on other occasions. But you can see their abilities when their in a flow, and after back to back wins vs Brooklyn and 61 point margin of victory vs Memphis (140-79) behind the resurgent Dwight Howard, this is now a viable team to back. With that said, I'm betting another struggling side like Dallas on a current 4 game losing streak does not pose much of a challenge to them in their current form. Let's not forget  Dallas owners Mark Cubans indirect comment that he thinks his team should go into tank mode for a better lottery choice, and we have a situation to bet into that favors the streaking visitor.

Add to that the Charlotte has revenge and motivation on board for a home loss they suffered to the Mavericks earlier this season 

Injury update: Dallas key cog G Denis Smith  is playing at less than 100% with various nagging injuries and may miss tonight's game.

DALLAS is 2-12 ATS  off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog this season. Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Mavericks are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

NBA Road favorites (CHARLOTTE) - off a home win, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 27 -8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for  bettors.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after allowing 115 points or more are 36-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to win

Both Minnesota and Philadelphia are playing quality hoops at the moment, and with the play offs approaching will be concentrating on being a little more diligent in the defensive end of the court and in transition. I know both these teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry , but with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines with an injury for the Wolves, and this being their 5th game in 8 days, I'm betting Minnesota won't be as fluid as the linesmakers expect vs staunch Philly D . It must also be noted   that the 76ers  are also in tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 night. These scheduling anomalies  I'm betting effect both sides offensive output here today, making this a viable under wager.

Minnesota is 24th in the league in PACE. Philadelphia is ranked 4th in PACE but are ranked 4th in defensive rating and are a highly under rated defensive side.

PHILADELPHIA is 22-13 UNDER  L/35 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season with a combined average score of 211.1 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 UNDER L/18 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored. HC Brown is 10-1 UNDER  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season as the coach of the Sixer's with a combined average of 202 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in March games are 40-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA/PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 140-50 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive win are 44-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for  a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Loyola Chicago has played some great basketball in this tournament and have also had a horse shoe solidly wedged into their lower extremities, winning their 3 games by a combined 4 points. They live in and die on fast ball movement and layups,, and today against a physical KState defense I'm betting their going to get battered, and mugged on a consistent basis and that horseshoe I mentioned is going to be pried loose and their luck will run out. Note: Kansas State runs the floor with a lot 6'4 or less athletes but their a tenacious group allowing 4 of their L/5 opponents to 64 points or less. They deserve respect here against a quality program from Chicago, that is as lucky as they are good. The Wildcats advance.

CBB favorite (KANSAS ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 PPG or less) after 15+ games, after a win by 6 points or less are 65-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kansas State to cover

NCAA - East Regional Semifinals - TD Garden - Boston, MA

Villanova really gets up for top quality competition, as was evident by posting a 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS mark vs .680- or better opposition this season. It must also be noted that West Virginia's HC Huggins is 0-21-1 ATS in this tournament if he loses straight up. While you can never rule out a SU upset , especially this season, the odds are very high the Wildcats win here SU, thus making Huggy Bear and  his cubs fade material in this spot.

VILLANOVA is 12-3 ATS  L/15 versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season

Sweet 16 No.1 seeds off back to back wins in the NCAA tourney are a bankroll expanding 21-8 ATS. Also No.1 seeds in this round are 18-0 SU /15-2-1 ATS if they face a two game win streak.   SWEET 16 No.5 seeds like West Virginia are 1-6 ATS as 9 point or less dogs.

Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (VILLANOVA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 69-31 ATS L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Villanova to cover

NCAA - Midwest Regional Semifinals - CenturyLink Center - Omaha, NE

Kansas rolls into this Sweet 16 affair vs Clemson winning 10 of their L/11 overall while /Clemson is just 5-5 in their L/10 despite of winning their first two games of this tournament. It must be noted that CLEMSON is 0-6 ATS after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half over the last few seasons.  From a coaching perspective Bill Self of Kansas has a huge experience edge, winning 9 of 12 Sweet 16 games, covering 8 times. In recent games vs the ACC Self is a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS and overall is 7-0 SU L/7 and 6-0-1 ATS vs .666 or better opposition like Clemson this season.

SWEET 16 No.5 seeds are 1-6 ATS L/7 overall as dogs of 9 points or less. No.5 seeds like Clemson are 0-4 ATs L/3 seasons.

KANSAS is 7-1 ATS    in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season.

Play on Kansas to cover

Atlanta enters this game off a  99-94 win vs Utah Jazz on Tuesday. Their were a few factors at work in that win, but the Hawks overall ugly record speaks for itself, and those types of performances are not consistent . With that said, I now expect a emotional letdown situation to effect the Hawks in this spot vs the Sacramento Kings. I know both teams are in tank mode, but Atlanta smashed Sacramento 126-80 at home on Nov. 15, and I'm betting the Kings will have a little bit of extra energy in the tank tonight in payback mode. 

ATLANTA is 9-23 ATS   in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last few  seasons. Sacramento has won and covered the L/2 meetings here in California's capital.  

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - in non-conference games, off a huge upset win as an underdog of 10 points or more are 5-27 SU L/5 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Hawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record .Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast. Kings are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

 NBA Favorites (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a road win are 144-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

 Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

NCAA - West Regional Semifinals - Staples Center - Los Angeles, CA

Florida State was down 12 points mid way through the 2nd half of their 2nd round game vs a very good Xavier side last time out and came back to  win 75-70.  I tip my proverbial hat to the Seminoles, for that big time effort,  but now I'm betting their celebrating comes to an abrupt end vs Gonzaga  side that has won 34 of 35 games vs sub .890  foes this season. It must also be noted that Seminoles HC Hamilton is 0-4 ATS in the NCAA tourney off two straight wins and 0-3 SU/ATS off a underdog victory.

GONZAGA is 15-4 ATS L/19 in road games versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots after 15+ games over the last few seasons. FLORIDA ST is 3-11 ATS  L/14  in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last few seasons.

Play on Gonzaga to cover

NCAA - West Regional Semifinals - Staples Center - Los Angeles, CA

Texas A&M goes against a John Beilein lead Michigan squad lucky to be here after trailing Houston last time out, by a FG with less than 4 seconds left on the clock and the Cougars at the FT line.The Wolverines than miraculously found away to win by 1 point.  Now off their lucky zone, and on negative karmic course vs a underdog that is 4-0 SU/ATS vs .800 or better opposition this season , Michigan is in trouble. Michigan has only covered 3 of their L/15 vs SEC sides away from home and HC Beilein is also just 0-6-1 ATS in his career vs SEC opponents.

Play on Texas A&M to cover

NCAA - South Regional Semifinals - Philips Arena - Atlanta, GA

Everyone and his dog is piling onto the Loyola Chicago miracle bandwagon, a side that won both their first wo games on last second buzzer beaters. Don't get me wrong this a fine looking team, and deserve respect,  but  I expect their luck to run out here,  vs very experienced and talented Nevada team, that knows exactly what's coming their way and they will be ready to compete and well prepared, as was evident in two tenacious   come back wins in this tournament vs Cincinnati and Texas . With my own power ranking suggesting that Nevada should be -4 or better favs here , I'll recommend we take the Wolfpack 

NEVADA is 29-14 ATS L/43 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.NEVADA is 15-6 ATS  in all tournament games over the last few seasons. Nevada HC Musselman is 15-3 ATS L/18 after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.

CBB Neutral Court favorites vs. the money line (NEVADA) - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less 49-9 SU L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors .

Play on Nevada to cover

NIT - Quarterfinals

St.Mary's is playing with a chip on their proverbial shoulders after not being included in the NCAA tournament despite of a top 25 ranking.  Playing  a weak schedule was their demise, but now their hell bent on winning this NIT tournament and come into this game with a chip on their shoulders. I felt they were being over rated vs Washington in the last round , but now this line seems more appropriate and I'm recommending we back the Gaels here in this spot vs Utah.

Utes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. West Coast Conference.

UTAH is 8-23 ATS  L/31 in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less  free throws/game.ST MARYS-CA is 9-1 ATS L/10 in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite. ( St.Mary's 78.3 Opp 55.6)

Bennett is 46-14 ATS  off a home win scoring 85 or more points as the coach of ST MARYS-CA which happened against Washington last time out.

Play on St.Mary's to cover

The LA Clippers looked exhausted last night in a DD 123-109 loss to Minnesota and  are on very, very, very tired legs entering this tilt vs Milwaukee  this Wednesday night on a 4 game losing streak. With this being their 5th  away game in 8 nights their exhausted as they allowed 120+ points for the third consecutive time . . Last night I advised we  back the Wolves, and tonight I'm recommending we do the same by backing the Bucks. The key here is burnout, and the Clippers are exhibiting signs of classic work place fatigue.

LA CLIPPERS are 3-11 ATS  after allowing 120 points or more this season.Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Milwaukee has won both meetings recent meetings in this series, home and away.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 23-57 ATS L/5 seasons for  ago against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

CBI Tournament - Semifinals

Jacksonville State is a very under rated squad, and must be respected here as road dogs on a short line. My own projections make them a very viable wagering opportunity. Meanwhile, North Texas off a win last time out to advance to the Semi Finals has surprised some pundits , after a mediocre campaign that saw them stumble in the stretch drive losing 7 of their L/8 games. On the season at home N.Texas is just 5-6 ATS, while Jack State has won 11 of their 19 road games SU.

N TEXAS is 0-6 ATS  L/6  in home games off a home win dating back to last season.

JACKSONVILLE ST is 12-1 ATS   versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.JACKSONVILLE ST is 7-1 ATS  L/8 versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season .

CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE ST) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 60-29  ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Jacksonville State to cover

The Raptors  smashed the Cavs, the three-time-defending champions in the East, their worst loss of the season when they beat Cleveland 133-99 on Jan. 11 and now payback and some measured respect is on the line in the rematch for LeBron James and company. James is playing great hoops of late   Love is back in the lineup , and even  Tristan Thompson (sprained right ankle) and Rodney Hood (lower back strain) were upgraded to questionable for Wednesday's game, which has me coming in late here to lay down some cash on the Cavs. Note: The Raptors have looked a little tired of late, and played last night which should effect their energy levels late in this game when things count most. Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.

Cleveland is 7-1 SU L/8 at home in this series.

NBA Favorites (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a road win are 114-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (TORONTO) - in a game involving two below average  defensive teams (102 PPG or more) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 43-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

 NIT- Quarter finals

Louisville is fourth in the nation in blocked shots (6.1 bpg) and ranks 35th in field goal percentage defense (.412). Anas Mahmoud is ninth in the nation in blocked shots (3.0) and Ray Spalding is 38th in offensive rebounds (3.09) and I'm betting these top tier abilities give them an edge here.

Louisville has made 42.1 percent of their threes over the last 12 games (110-of-261. UofL is 16-3 when it makes eight or more three-pointers in a game and in their current form are very dangerous. The Cards have made a combined 36-of-76 threes in its four postseason games (.474).Louisville held eight of its 18 ACC opponents to 40 percent or below shooting from the field and are currently in top form and more than capable of handling a pretty good Miss State  side and getting us the cover.

LOUISVILLE is 12-4 ATS L/16  in home games in non-conference games . LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS L/6  in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite.

Louisville to cover

The LA Clippers are on very tired legs entering this tilt vs Minnesota this Tuesday night. In their last game  on Sunday... back home in  Los Angeles they played their third contest in three cities in four nights and now this will be their 4 away game in 6 nights, which I am betting will effect their play here this evening. Yes, Minnesota will play without key cog Jimmy Butler, but their still plenty of fight and talent in this this lineup and their more than capable of snatching a win in this spot at home where they are 26-9 this season.

Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

MINNESOTA is 36-20 ATS  L/56 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots.

NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 53-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average of victory coming by 10 ppg.

Play on Minnesota Wolves to cover

The Oklahoma City Thunder may find themselves in a precarious letdown spot here this Tuesday night in Boston as they visit the Celtics  after a very hard fought win vs the Toronto Raptors last time out that ended the Raptors 11 game win streak. I watched a last part of that tilt and was a grueling affair. Meanwhile the Celtics have won their last two games against the Thunder, including a 101-84 victory on Nov. 3 at Oklahoma City and despite of some injuries matchup well against the Thunder. I know that the Thunder are streaking but from a ATS perspective, they don't deal well with success as they are just  1-13 ATS  L/14  in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread and are fade material here at 4 point or more chalk.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-23 ATS   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-19 ATS ( revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60% ) are 44-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

 NIT - Quarterfinals

My own projections make Marquette the superior side vs Penn State. The Golden Eagles offense behind the Big 3 of Markus Howard, Andrew Rowsey and Sam Hauser just won't be slowed down not even against a strong Big 10 D. MU is the only team in the country to feature three players with 75-or-more 3-pointers and Rowsey (119), Howard (109) and Hauser (92) are all already in the team's top-10 single-season list and trail only Steve Novak (121, 2005-06).Of the team's losses in 2017-18, seven came to nationally ranked teams (19/21 Purdue, 6/6 Wichita State, 6/5 Xavier, 3/3 Villanova, 8/8 Xavier, 1/1 Villanova, 2/3 Villanova - ranking at time of game.

Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on Marquette to cover

NIT - Second Round

I'm sure St.Mary's is not very exited to be here, despite of playing their first game of this tourney with a chip on this shoulders and notching a win.,. Their sudden motivation has come after they were only the fourth team to be in the top 25 in NCAA history to be left out of the big dance. But the truth is this Gael's side had a soft schedule, and other than their big win vs Gonzaga at home this season, looked like they were asleep at the proverbial wheel at times as they cruised against much weaker competition. There's a lot of talk about proving themselves , but I'm betting smashing Washington won't come that easily as this Huskies side won't be easily intimidated at McKeon Pavilion as they have notched road wins over Colorado, USC and most-impressively, Kansas, this season and last time out against an experienced Boise State side.

ST MARYS-CA is 1-8 ATS L/9 in home games after a game where they covered the spread dating back to last season. Washington is 2-0 in these programs last two meetings including a win here at the Pavilion.

Play on Washington to cover

CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals

The Mercer Bears are on fire especially when talking about their money making value on the line as they have covered 9 of their L/10 games.Bears are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record like N.Texas and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and get the nod again in this spot play situation. Note:  Mean Green Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.UNT is led by one man team  sophomore guard Roosevelt Smart, the C-USA's 4th leading scorer with a 19.3 average, but this team is easily controlled if Smart is contained.  The Bears are capable of doing this : Conference 1st in rebounding defense (28.9)

N TEXAS is 0-7 ATS   in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. N TEXAS is 13-32 ATS   in home games in non-conference games since 1997.N TEXAS is 2-9 ATS  L/11  in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season .

Play on the Mercer Bears to cover

The Memphis Grizzlies have had a horrendous season,  but are off a win vs Dallas last time out, which ended a 19 game losing streak. The Grizzlies despite of their failures have remained fairly competitive and saw 10 of those 19 losses come by single digits , and are more than capable of covering again vs a inconsistent Brooklyn Nets side that has lost 12 of their L/15 overall, and  has lost 22 of their 34 homes games this season.

Memphis has won and covered their L/2 trips to Brooklyn. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Nets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset win as an underdog are 90-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Memphis to cover

College Insider Tournament - Second Round

With 22 wins on the year, EMU is tied for the fourth-most wins in a single season and very under rated and hungry side that is hell bent on winning this tournament. The Eagles have played some of their best ball of the season over the final month of the season, winnng 11 of its last 13 games overall, including a season-best seven-game winning streak.  The Eagles winning ways have come  behind the Mid-American Conference's best defense. The Eagles, lead the MAC with a 66.8 scoring defense, have allowed just 63.1 points per contest in the last eight games. EMU has also held teams to just 40.9 percent from the floor during the stretch, forced 12.9 turnovers per game, and averaged 8.4 steals per contest which will be I'm betting the catalyst behind a victory for them tonight.

HC Hooten is 2-13 ATS  when the total is 130 to 139.5 as the coach of SAM HOUSTON ST and  is 8-17 ATS  L/25 in non-conference games as the coach of SAM HOUSTON ST.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover

CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals

According to my systems and small school charts Jacksonville State is the superior side.

Gamecocks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.

JACKSONVILLE ST is 8-1 ATS  L/9  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game after 15+ games over the last few seasons. JACKSONVILLE ST is 11-1 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.JACKSONVILLE ST is 9-1 ATS  L/10  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last few seasons. JACKSONVILLE ST is 11-2 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game over the last few seasons. JACKSONVILLE ST is 13-4 ATS  L/17 in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5. JACKSONVILLE ST is 28-15 ATS  L/43  in road games. Jacksonville State HC Harper is 23-8 ATS  in all tournament games in all games he has coached in his career.

Play on Jacksonville State to cover

The red hot  Portland Trail Blazers  enter into tonights LA game vs the Clippers on Sunday night with big targets on their backs after notching 12 consecutive victories. With the Blazers also eyeing big upcoming tilts vs Houston and the Boston Celtics they may not be completely focused here which  could I'm betting  result in a negative effort vs a team primed to grab a victory and end their opponents win streak.

It must be noted that Los Angeles turned it over 23 times in a sloppy 121-113 setback at Oklahoma City on Friday and are now 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot and desperate for a win. The Clippers are 7-1 L/8 ATS off a loss.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (PORTLAND) - in a game involving two below average  defensive teams (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 6-43 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors.

Play on the LA Clippers

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TN

My own projections make Xavier the better team here by 9 or more points which gives us value laying the lumber with this number.. My own observations also tell me that this could be one of the greatest teams Xavier has ever put on the floor and I won't be surprised if they make it to the Elite 8 round. Meanwhile Florida State has not been a bettors favorite betting option as they have covered only 1 in their L/9 trips to the floor, with 3 of their L/4 losses coming by DD margins. With that said , I'm betting their on the wrong side of this final score here.
Last season Xavier clobbered Florida State 91-66 in neutral curt tourney action.

Xavier is 11-4 on the road this season. Florida State is just 8-9.

FLORIDA ST is 1-8 ATS L/9 versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game after 15+ games over the last few seasons. FLORIDA ST is 4-13 ATS L/17 vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making 77% or more of their shots.XAVIER is 21-8 ATS L/29 versus excellent teams - shooting 45% or better with a defense of 42% or better.

Play on Xavier to cover

Portland States Head Coach Barret Peery  has shown his metal in his first year at the helm of the team, as the Vikings have registered a 20 win season, something many thought was improbable. This Portland State team is explosive offensively averaging 85.8 points per game on offense and are a dangerous opponent for teams like the  San Diego Toreros squad  that  averages just  70.1 points per game on offense which ranks them 264th nationally.

PORTLAND ST is 10-0 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Vikings are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. West Coast Conference.

CBB Home teams as a favorite or pick (SAN DIEGO) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an below average defensive team (47.5% or better ) after 15+ games are a long term negative out bet, as is evident by 171- 266 ATS mark over the L/21 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on Portland State to cover

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Intrust Bank Arena - Wichita, KS

 Former Indiana coach Kelvin Sampson who knows what to expect from a Big 10 opponent, has Houston back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2010. The Cougars earned their first tournament win since 1984 with a 67-65 victory over San Diego State on Thursday night behind Rob Gray’s 39 points.Houston’s strength is its defense, which ranks 15th in the nation in KenPom’s efficiency metrics. The Cougars give opposing  teams fits as is evident by  having the eighth-worst opponent field-goal percentage when playing Houston.
I have said this time and time again. Houston is the most underrated team in this tournament, and are capable of going deep. I'm not about to  jump off their bandwagon now and recommend we take the points in a tilt vs a Michigan side that matchup very well against. Yes, I know Moe Wagner Wolverines big man is a top tier player, but Houston can make things irritating for the most gifted of athletes, and he is not immune to their constant pestering.

Cougars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Wolverines are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.

HC Sampson is 7-0 ATS  as a neutral court underdog or pick as the coach of HOUSTON. HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS L/7 after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last few seasons.

Play on Houston

Charlotte's Hornets star Dwight Howard  enters this game on fire ,  playing some of his best basketball in years with three 30-point games in the last 10 days, including a 33-point performance in a 129-117 win over his former team, the Atlanta Hawks. Tonight I'm betting he will be the catalyst behind what is a now an explosive Charlotte offense that can easily take advantage of a team that has lost 9 straight and 17 of their L/18 games overall and playing a lot of young players.

NEW YORK is 9-21 ATS  L/30 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less  turnovers/game this season.

Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.

NBA Favorites (CHARLOTTE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 29-5 ATS l/21 seasons for a  85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover

One of Houston's three losses since Jan. 6 was a 115-113 setback at New Orleans on Jan. 26 and now the teams play again. Houston is off clinching the division title last time out, on Thursday and could now be in a letdown spot vs a side that actually matches up quite well against them as has been evident by recent meetings. I know New Orleans has struggled a bit over tier  last few games, but taking on this type of top tier side I'm betting will bring out the best them.  Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and get the nod getting points here this evening.

Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in New Orleans.Underdog is 20-9-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season  are 44-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

NCAA Tournament - Second Round - PPG Paints Arena - Pittsburgh, PA

Look for Dukes powerful inside-outside game  to go head to head in a back forth affair  against the dynamic guard play of the Rams in a game I have projected to go over the total.

DUKE is 11-1 OVER  L/12 after a non-conference game this season with a combined average score of 169.7 ppg scored.DUKE is 10-2 OVER in non-conference games this season with a combined average score of 164.8 ppg scored.

Over is 6-2 in Blue Devils last 8 neutral site games. Over is 7-3 in Rams last 10 neutral site games.

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (RHODE ISLAND/DUKE) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (60 shots/game or more) after 15+ games are 160-88 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TNMy CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Missouri has Michael Porter Jr. after missing most of the season with a back injury. This Tigers team is a top tier downtown shooting side and very consistent from the FT line, making them viable opponents for a inconsistent Florida state Seminoles team, that is just 7 - 9 away from home this season. The Seminoles coincidently do not guard the three well and are horrible from the charity stripe making them fade material in this spot.

FLORIDA ST is 4-15 ATS L/19 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games dating back to last season and FLORIDA ST is 2-9 ATS L/11 in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making  37% or better of their attempts after 15+ games over the same time parameters. FLORIDA ST is 4-16 ATS L/20  in road games after 2 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons. Hamilton is 7-16 ATS L/23 in a post-season tournament game as the coach of FLORIDA ST.

CBB Neutral court teams as an underdog (MISSOURI) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, on Friday nights are 55-21 ATS L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors

.Play on Missouri to cover

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Viejas Arena - San Diego, CA

My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

The WAC champ New Mexico State has a roster filled with big athletic men who are not easily intimidated  and  are a cohesive offensive unit  lead by  20 point-per-game scorer Zachm  Lofton and Jemerrio Jones who  is the double-double demon.
 This team grabs rebounds like a fat kid snatching candy on Halloween and also owns one of the best defenses in the country.  They did have issues with FT shooting during the season, but nabbed 20 of 27  in their championship game and must not be disrespected here vs Clemson a side that lost 5 of their L/8 games downs the stretch.  Clemson also struggles with rebounding at times and their FT shooting is also less than spectacular, making them fade material vs a side that actually matches up very well against them.

CLEMSON is 5-16 ATS L/21 in road games in first round tournament games.

Play on New Mexico State to cover

 The Oklahoma City Thunder have made a habit of beating up on lower tier teams, which is good as their taking care of business when they need to but, they have struggled against better teams. . Since Feb. 1, the Thunder are just 2-6 against teams with better-than-.500 records, beating only Golden State on the road and the Spurs at home. Tonight they go against another above .500 opponent, the LA Clippers a team that desperately needs win to get into the play offs as they are on the bubble at the moment. Los Angeles has won 11 of their last 16 to stay in playoff contention and must not be underestimated in their current desperate form.

Note: The Thunder could be without Center Steven Adams and George who were both limited in Thursday's practice and both are listed as questionable. If they do play they will be less than 100%,giving a key advantage to the Clippers.

LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 ATS   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.Clippers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 ATS   in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 ATS  on Friday nights this season.

The Thunder are 0-12 ATS L/12 failing to cover by 9.75 ppg and 1-11 with that win coming by just 1 point when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a road favorite in which their high scorer had at least ten more points than their next highest scorer.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

Both these sides have played some fairly high scoring back and forth games of late, but the Clippers still key on defense to get where they need to go, and have seen 3 of their L/4 stay under the total . The average combined score of the  Clippers road games clicks in at around 216 ppg.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma City also has been running and gunning on a consistent basis, but because of this the lines makers are attaching some slightly bloated Totals to their tilts which makes for value when looking at the under as is evident by 4 of their L/5 home tilts failing to eclipse the number. The Thunders home games have seen a combined average score of 209.6 ppg scored behind the 20th ranked pace in the league and the 8th best defensive rating. My projections make this Total closer to 219 which gives us value on the under.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-27 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record dating back to last season with a combined average score of 211.3 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 UNDER L/33 against Pacific division opponents with a combined average score of 213.1 ppg scored.

The Thunder are 0-20 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest when they won as a favorite in each of their last two games with the highest score in those games coming in at 218 total points with the average combined score clicking in at 193.7 ppg.

The Thunder are 0-19 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest off a double-digit win as a favorite with the highest score in those games not eclipsing the 216 point plateau.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in March games are 38-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the combined average score of 211.6 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER

The banged up Boston Celtics gave everything they had against long time rivals the Washington Wizards last time out losing, 125-124 in OT. Now still shorthanded playing without key cog Kyrie Irving and exhausted and emotionally letdown after that above mentioned marathon event,  they will  be at a disadvantage  trying to cover a 6 point + spread on the road against a young hungry group in Orlando looking for recognition.

Meanwhile, Orlando has also sustained some injuries, but they are also hanging in there, and are off a win last time out and for the most part remain competitive and deserve my respect here as home dogs in this spot.

I know that Boston lost to Orlando at home back in Jan , but right now I don't think their in the best shape mentally or physically to get their revenge and  hand out a beat down in their current form

BOSTON is 9-21 ATS versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons. .

The Celtics are 0-15 ATS failing to cover by an average of 7 ppg off a home loss in which they scored at least ten points more in the first quarter than they did in the fourth quarter and 2-13 SU with both wins coming by just 3 points. .

NBA Road teams (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 95-154 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Orlando to cover

 NCAA Tournament - First Round - Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TN

My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals

Nevada really takes care of the rock and they don’t turn the ball over very often, they’re  also explosive of the land of the trey, and  are dizzying with their ball movement. baskets.  They had a crap tournament after a great season, but overall they   beat teams by an average of over 11 points per game and must be respected behind an experienced older group. Meanwhile, Texas does not pas well and can are easily read when on the attack. Yes, they do defend the three well, but their overall game is lacking compared to this opponent.

NEVADA is 27-14 ATS L/41 when playing against a team with a winning record .TEXAS is 4-17 ATS  L/21 as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick.NEVADA is 7-0 ATS  off an upset loss as a favorite|(which happened in the MWC Tourney)

Play on Nevada to cover

 NCAA Tournament - First Round - Viejas Arena - San Diego, CA

My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

The Racers of the Ohio Valley Conference have not lost in almost two month and must be respected here as less than easy out for West Virginia. The Racers played a non-conference game against Auburn,  which uses a similar pressing style of defense,  that West Virginia uses, and lost by just a few points. Don't write off Murray State vs what my own power rankings suggest is a over rated West Virginia side.

MURRAY ST is 8-2 ATS   versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.

CBB favorite (W VIRGINIA) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are just 17-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors.

Play on Murray State to cover

 NCAA Tournament - First Round - Little Caesars Arena - Detroit, MI

 My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

The Titans enter Friday's matchup having won eight of their last 10 games and are in top form. Fifteen seeds have upset two seeds eight times throughout NCAA Tournament history. Four of those times have happened since 2012, with the most recent coming in 2016 (MTSU over Michigan State). So don't be surprised by a freak show and more importantly getting us the cover vs a strong Big 10 program.

CS-FULLERTON is 18-8 ATS L/26 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less  turnovers/game.CS-FULLERTON is 11-3 ATS  as an underdog this season. .PURDUE is 0-6 ATS L/6 after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers this season.

NCAA No.2 seed as chalk of 18 or more points in the opening round of the national tournament have not covered in their L/18 tries vs a team off a win like Fullerton which cruised to a 71-55 victory over UC Irvine in the final winning the Big West Championship)

Play on the Cal State Fullerton

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Spectrum Center - Charlotte, NC

My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Providence is not an amazing team that stands put, but they are very deep , and that was evident when they took Villanova to OT in the conference final. This team is physical and can draw fouls, which is a positive for a team that is extremely proficient from the FT line. This team must be respected here as dogs vs a good but over rated Texas A&M Aggies side that lost 4 of their L/7 games overall including a collapse in the conference tournament to Alabama. Texas A&M is frustrating to watch at the charity stripe and their downtown shooting is extremely inconsistent.

TEXAS A&M is 1-7 ATS    in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.PROVIDENCE is 12-3 ATS  L/15 versus excellent teams - shooting 45% or better  with a defense of  42% or better. PROVIDENCE is 23-12 ATS  L/35  as an underdog .

Play on Providence to cover

 NCAA Tournament - First Round - PPG Paints Arena - Pittsburgh, PA

My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

 Alabama Guard Collin Sexton is  one of the best one on one players I've seen in a long time, and I feel strongly that his team are sleepers here and under rated. Look for him to be the catalyst behind a cover here for the Crimson tide.

Play on Alabama  to cover

  NCAA Tournament - First Round - Intrust Bank Arena - Wichita, KS

My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

According to my own power rankings Houston is being vastly under rated by the linesmakers and one of the most under rated sides in the tournament.

HOUSTON is 8-2 ATS L/10  versus good defensive teams - allowing shooting pct defense of 42% or less   this season. HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS  after playing a game as an underdog this season which was the case vs Cincinnati in their conference championship loss ( 56-55).

Play on Houston  to cover

Heading into this tilt at Indiana , the  Toronto Raptors are in red hot form and  have won nine in a row and 16 of its last 17 and are one of  the very few teams in this league that must be respected as road favorites. I know Toronto has played a heavy schedule of late , but they are the best conditioned team in the NBA, and more than capable of standing tall here and notching  the win and cover s visitors. A great deal has been made of Indiana, and I  respect this team, but they have proven highly inconsistent this season, with long negative and positive runs and despite of a current 3 game win streak and 6 wins in their L/7 overall , just  dont' inspire me against this type of lights out side, that will primed to continue to prove their dominance over the Eastern Conference.  

Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

TORONTO is 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Toronto 114.6 Opp 97

NBA Road favorites (TORONTO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 25-3 L/21 seasons for a 89.% conversion rate for bettors. ( Team 98 Opp 87.5)

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

 NCAA Tournament - First Round - Intrust Bank Arena - Wichita, KS

My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

NC STATE is 6-15 ATS  L/21  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record and is 5-13 ATS   in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game.

 CBB favorite (SETON HALL) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a good 3PT defense (32% or less) after 15+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 TO or less ) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO) after 15+ games are 95-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Seton Hall to cover

NCAA Tournament - First Round - Taco Bell Arena - Boise, ID

South Dakota State is a side that should not be underestimated, as they are very talented and now making their 3rd straight NCAA tourney appearance and on a 11 game win streak . They are lead by Mike Daum (23.8 ppg) the Dominator, a player that is  headed for the NBA next season and one of the best players in this entire tournament.

 Make no mistake that their opponents today Ohio State had a marvelous season, playing well above expectations, but they were just 2-3 SU/ATS down the stretch and being over rated here today against a side that matches up very well against them.

S DAKOTA ST is 6-0 ATS  L/6 versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season

No.12 seeds like N.Dakota State are 24-11-1 ATS L/9 seasons when facing a No.5 seed like Ohio State.

Play on S.Dakota State to cover

NCAA Tournament - First Round - American Airlines Center - Dallas, TX

My CBB Hoops tourney Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Champions of the Missouri Valley Conference, Loyola (28-5, 15-3 MVC) earned a NCAA berth by defeating Illinois State, 65-49, to capture the MVC Tournament title last Sunday. The Ramblers are one of the hottest teams in the country, winners of 17 of their last 18 tilts, including 10 straight, but facing a team with superior recruiting and talent in a big time event is going to be to over whelming for this group, and I'm betting against them here.  

HC Larranaga is 32-20 ATS   when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of MIAMI.

Play on Miami Florida to cover

NCAA Tournament - First Round - PPG Paints Arena - Pittsburgh, PA

Oklahoma depends way to much on the one man team  Trae Young to get things going. Young thanks to Krugers coaching takes control of the offensive end of the court in one on one fashion,  , but the team in its entirety has proven inconsistent as is evident by losing 8 of their L/10 overall. Watching the sooners play defense is like watching a pylon parade. Meanwhile Rhode Island is a hard working cohesive group with great chemistry and they get the nod here today in this matchup.

OKLAHOMA is 0-6 ATS  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.OKLAHOMA is 4-13 ATS L/17 versus good ball handling teams - committing  14 or less turnovers/game. OKLAHOMA is 2-13 ATS  L/15 when playing against a team with a winning record  this season. OKLAHOMA is 10-20 ATS  in all games this season.

CBB favorite (RHODE ISLAND) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (78 PPG or more), after a close loss by 3 points or less are 68-26 ATS  L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rhode Island to cover