Portland enters this game  on tired legs after a back and forth teeter totter affair last night in a game they won by a 109-104 score over the Utah Jazz  in Salt Lake City. Now exhausted they will be in the precarious position of having to deal with a explosive Oklahoma City squad. Needless to say I doubt the Blazers will want to run and gun here, and will be out looking to play a more conservative brand of transitional basketball instead which will see very few fast breaks which in turn will directly skew the total combined score to the low side. Note:  The Trailblazers are 0-9 L/9 UNDER off a game as a dog that had at least eight lead changes going under by more than 16 ppg with the average combined score clicking in at 202.3 ppg. Also PORTLAND is 10-1 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208 ppg scored.

In Portlands L/32 games when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons a combined average of 219.1 ppg were scored.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-10 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.3 ppg scored. 

Under is 20-8 in Trail Blazers last 28 vs. Western Conference.Under is 20-8 in Trail Blazers last 28 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 road games.

Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 38-16 in Thunder last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Under is 24-9-2 in the last 35 meetings in Oklahoma City.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY/PORTLAND) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are 34-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

There have been five meetings between Villanova and Butler at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse between the Wildcats and Bulldogs since the BIG EAST was reconfigured in 2013. None has been decided by more than eight points and the average margin of victory in those clashes is 4.8 points per game. Villanova won the first three games and have lost the last two, but come into this game wide awake, with a lot to prove, and won't be intimidated by a Butler team that my own power rankings suggest is less superior to this version of Wildcats and a few notches under previous incarnations of Butler basketball. Im betting on Villanova's two senior foundational pieces, Paschall and Booth to be the difference makers tonight and for this fast improving sophomore supporting group to help us grab the cash in hostile environment. 

Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Wildcats are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Wildcats are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Wildcats are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.Wildcats are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games overall.Wildcats are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 road games.Wildcats are 47-23 ATS in their last 70 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on Villanova to cover 

Well rested Clemson off for a week entering this game will look for its second consecutive victory  as visitors to Tallahassee tonight to face  a tired Florida State side playing their 2nd 48 our turnaround . The Tigers’ last victory on the road against Florida State was a 62-56 victory on Feb. 4, 2015. FSU is not only tired but are dealing with nagging injuries, ( Mann, Trent, and Phil) makes them weak home favs tonight. 

Seminoles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Seminoles are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Atlantic Coast.Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Clemson to cover 

The Flashes improved to 14-4 overall and 3-2 in conference play as they defended home court in a 78-68 win over NIU last time out  and roll into this game against Toledo as viable home dogs. After all the Flashes have played their best hoops at home this season, where they are 9-2 SU and deserve respect getting points in this friendly environment, vs what my own rankings suggest is a very good but slightly over rated Rockets hoops group, that has some defensive short coming as is evident by allowing 77.1 ppg on the road this season. Kent State is 9-3 L/12 at home in this series, and get the nod here tonight to get the cover. Note:Senderoff is 7-0 ATS  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  80% or better ) after 15 or more games as the coach of KENT ST and overal lKENT ST is 13-2 ATS L/15 when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  80% or more) after 15 or more games since 1997. 

Play on Kent State to cover 

 Five of Niagara's nine wins have come at the Gallagher Center with victories over St. Bonaventure, New Hampshire, Cornell, Norfolk State, and Iona and this is where they play their best basketball. Meanwhile,   Saint Peter's is 0-9 on the road this season.

The Purple Eagles are 20-7 at home versus the Peacocks since the 1991-92 season.

•  Six of the last 10 meetings with Saint Peter's have been decided by less than five points with NU going 5-1 in those six games and they get the nod again on short line. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

CBB Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (ST PETERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45-47.5%), after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 2-56 L/22 seasons for a 97% go against conversion rate. 

Play on Niagara to cover 

My projected Totals estimate for this game, is closer to 215 thus according to those projections we have value with an under wager here. 

Utah is well rested and will be ready to play a free flowing Portland team physically here today in an effort to slow their offensive efficiency. The Jazz have held 4 of their L/6 opponents to 99 points or under, and are currently playing the kind of D we have come to expect from this hardcore blue collar group behind the 3rd ranked ppg allowed and 3rd best defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Portland owns the 18th rank pace, and when they are not allowed to flow and connect are a team that can falter, as was the case here in Utah when they visited here back in December scoring just 96 points which followed up scoring just 90 points against the Jazz at home a couple days earlier. Im betting on a repeat type of combined score here tonight in Salt Lake City.

UTAH is 14-6 UNDER  after playing a home game this season with a combined average of 205.7 ppg scored.UTAH is 15-5 UNDER  in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 season

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH/PORTLAND) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%), in January are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 206.2 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

 West Virginia is off a huge win vs Kansas this past Saturday and are now in a huge letdown situation. With  Baylor  out looking for revenge for  a 13-point loss in the first round of the Big 12 tourney last season which was their 3rd loss in this series last season, I now expected the Bears to be bad news for  Huggins and company. Before West Virginias last game they did not look like contenders and are down a notch this season talent wise, so its not like Im calling for a miracle here or anything today by backing a highly cmpetetive  Baylor team that is 6-0-1 ATS L/7 overall.W VIRGINIA is 13-25 ATS  after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons.

Baylor is 12-3 ATS under head coach Scott Drew when not favored by more than 6 points against sub .500 opponents.BAYLOR is 10-2 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 season

Play on Baylor to cover 

Monday's showdown features the top two scoring offenses in the league with Creighton averaging 83.5 ppg with the Hoyas right behind with 82.8 ppg. Georgetown continues to be the top rebounding squad in the BIG EAST with 40.6 rpg and also leads the conference in assists with 17.5 apg and Im betting that their ferocity under the glass and ability to spread the ball around will be the difference maker for a home team win in this spot for Georgetown.

The Hoyas behind a revenge factor are my choice tonight vs a Bluejays program that won both contests last season and have won three-straight in the series which activates a personal 17-2 ATS triple revenge angle that I have used over the L/7 seasons. 

Note: Creighton has lost four-straight BIG EAST games following a league-opening victory over Providence and have not traveled well vs power 5 teams losing 4 of their L/5 with Providence being the exception. 

CREIGHTON is 2-11 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 2 season.CREIGHTON is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.s 3-11 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Georgetown to cover

The struggling Orlando Magic, visit the up trending Atlanta Hawks in a holiday matinee Monday afternoon in a tilt that Im betting favors the home team.Atlanta is currently  in 12th place in the East, one spot behind Orlando, but has been the better of the two of late, going 8-8 SU in its last 16 games. 

ORLANDO is 18-31 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Atlanta is 3-1 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46%or less  on the season, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47%  or better of their shots are just 32-86 L5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams (ATLANTA) - after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 32-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Clippers are currently in disarray, and are having problems at both ends of the court,  as is evident by 5 straight losses, and are now going to play todays games without forward Danilo Gallinari (back) and  guard Lou Williams (Hamstring). With the Clippers offence not clicking on all cylinders of late, and injuries slowing them, Im betting a more concerted defensive effort will be on tonights agenda vs a San Antonio Spurs side, that has gone under in 7 of their L/9 at home as favorites with the combined average score of 209.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Under is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Under is 7-1 in Clippers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Play UNDER 

The Missouri State  Bears have won their last two MVC road games with recent wins at Indiana State & Bradley and are more than capable of hanging tough here and getting us the cover. Missouri State also has revenge on board for a pair of losses to Drake last season, by 61-58 and 76-73 scores. Note: The Blackies are 8-2 SU vs the Bulldogs with revenge  and get my backing here today. 

HC Ford of Missouri State  is 14-2 ATS in road games in January games in all games he has coached in his career. 

Play on Missouri State to cover 

Oh boy how far the Cavs have fallen since the departure of their superstar LeBron James. Just take a look this line, and you will see their down quite a bit in the eyes of the public and lines makers. But pros don't like to be embarrassed, and now the NBA has embraced and accepted betting lines, you can bet that all the Cavs are aware of how thye are being perched tonight in the Mile High City and will be out to prove their detractors wrong and at least be competitive. I know the Cavs took it on the chin last night in Utah by a 115-99 count, but their well conditioned and young enough to push tonight and get us the cover on a slightly bloated line.

 Denver exploded on the ChicagoBulls last time out after being humbled by the Warriors in their previous game, but now after back to back all out efforts could be an a natural letdown spot here.The Nuggets are 0-12 ATS at home after they shot 50% or better from beyond the arc and are 6-6 SU in those games with non coming by more than 7 points.

DENVER is 0-7 ATS after scoring 120 points or more this season.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (DENVER) - excellent offensive team (102 PPG or better ) against a sub par defensive team (102 PPG or more) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 23-51 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

ASU (12-5, 3-2 in Pac-12 play)shooting woes make them lousy favs here . On the season ASU is hitting just  .439 from the field and .342 from 3-point range but an nasty .654 from the line. Even though  Oregon is missing banged up with some injuries their key starter sophomore F Kenny Wooten is healthy again making them dangerous underdogs here tonight . 

ARIZONA ST is 1-11 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons is 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less  after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

OREGON is 20-8 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Oregon to cover 

 Atlanta is up trending in my power rankings and are 7-7 SU in their L/14 games and deserve my respect here in this spot vs Boston on their own home court. The market thanks to the public money has pushed this line up  giving me an edge here with the home dog Hawks.  I know the Celtics have beat up on these kids in DD wins so far this season, but Atlanta as mentioned above is playing much better hoops of late and improving . Meanwhile, Boston is off playing last night vs Memphis  in a hard fought home win and on tired legs. This situation is a good omen for us here behind the young legs  of a Hawks group that is 4-0 ATS as dogs against unrested opposition this campaignvand that are  3-0-1 ATS at home when playing with 3 or more days of rest.  It must be noted that the Celtics are  just  0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU as road favs without rest.

Stevens is 2-15 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON.BOSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Temple has won 11 straight meetings in this series, but in recent battles here on the road Penn State has been very competitive and covered 7 of their L/9 visits. I know the Quakers have looked wobbly of late, without injured G Ryan Betley who is out for season, and are on on a 4 game losing streak, but now in desperation mode, will be ready to leave everything on the floor today. Note: PENNSYLVANIA is 21-8 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses since 1997. You have to remember this is a PennState team that upended Villanova this season, and are not completely futile or without talent. 

TEMPLE is 0-6 ATS  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Penn State to cover 

 There was a key number that I was looking for in this Kentucky vs Auburn battle, and now that I have it will recommend we pull the trigger.  

Saturday's matchup between No. 12/14 Kentucky and No. 14/12 Auburn will mark the eighth time in the series' history the teams will meet while both are ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 and the first since No. 24 Auburn took on No. 4 Kentucky on Jan. 22, 2003. 

Kentucky owns a 92-19 all-time record in the series, including a 30-15 advantage when the game is played in Auburn. UK also has a lead in the series during the seven prior meetings when the teams were both ranked with a 6-1 edge.

John Calipari and Bruce Pearl have matched up head-to-head with ranked squads on four occasions, splitting the meetings 2-2. Calipari is 9-5 all-time against Pearl.

Auburn beat Kentucky last season and now we have revenge on board for Calipari in company. 

This game will feature an Auburn side that likes to smack down 3s and take an average of 35 a game, and HC Calipari despite of seeing his team struggle against treys will have his athletic side ready to respond here today. Note: Wildcats have held their last two opponent to 50 points or less , and are extremely capable of keeping this game close and even pulling off the upset vs the public favourite.  

Auburn is proving susceptible to fouls and giving up offensive rebounds,  Im betting the charity stripe and the Cats determination under the basket  will be a deciding factor in which side covers today. 

Play on Kentucky to cover 

Both these teams play defence first basketball, but according to my numbers the Total is off by close to 5 points on the low side as the linebackers over adjust according to public perceptions and trends. My Totals data suggests this tilt should be closer to 134 to 135. Thus giving us value according to my projections. 

Konkol in his L/18 when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days as the coach of LOUISIANA TECH has seen combined average of 146 ppg scored.LOUISIANA TECH  in their L/9 after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 140.9 ppg scored.

CHARLOTTE in their L/45 games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 149.4 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two love average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games are 58-25 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Oklahoma City played a hard fought tilt last time out, and than lost in OT by 10 points to the Lakers , which is a huge drain on a team both emotionally and physically. Now travelling from West to East going against a Philadelphia team that is starting to uptrend both from a talent and maturity level, and that plays their best hoops at home Im betting the Thunder will be on the wrong end of this score when the final buzzer goes off. Note: OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-10 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Even if J Embild does not play today for the 76ers Im betting they find a way to win. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50%  or more of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 59-9 L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

Even though this game is being played at Kent State I have this tilt projected as a pickem, making N.Illinois a value selection here according to my estimates. NIU has revenge on board for a  61-59 loss in last years tourney to Kent State and are a experienced team  with 5 returning starters that can get things done .  Northern Illinois has covered 6 of the L/7 meetings and gets the nod again. 

Note: Kent State picked up a big win last time out as home pups , but in the past KENT ST is  just 6-16 ATS  in home games off an upset win as an underdog  and are  0-10 ATS at home when coming off a Straight up underdog win and facing opposition coming off a SU/ATS loss.. 

N ILLINOIS is 8-1 ATS  in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Northern Illinois to cover 

Both these programs are down a notch this season, with West Virginia getting the most trash talk from the pundits. If anyone thinks that West Virginia's proud hoops program will now roll over and die, because of a bad start might be in for a surprise especially opposing betting detractors as HC Huggy Bear is 6-0 ATS L/6 at home as a dog. What Im betting here to happen in Morgantown is that the Mounties will have plenty of fight left in them vs a Kansas program that has not faired well here in the recent past as is evident by a their 1-5 ATS mark here in their L/6 visits. 

KANSAS is 2-11 ATS  after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.W VIRGINIA is 13-3 ATS  in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1997. W VIRGINIA is 15-6 ATS  in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.

Play on West Virginia to cover 

Talk about a huge letdown situation as Syracuse comes home off a huge win vs Duke last time out on the road. Wow. But hey you have to remember that Duke was off a thrilling tight win vs Florida State previous to that  and were flat for that affair vs the Orange in their followup. Now The Panthers who are starting to play much better  go against another emotionally drained team, and could easily spring a ugly upset here, much like Syracuse did to Duke. This Pittsburgh program has also been a cash ATS for their backers going  22-8 ATS in the series, including 5-0 ATS as dogs of 6 or more points and really must not be underestimated in this situational play. Remember the Orange are far from infallible at home as was the case when they lost outright to Georgia Tech as 8.5 point home chalk already this season. 

Take the points here with Pittsburgh to cover 

Golden State is playing some top tier basketball at the moment , but their hosts the LAClippers have proven themselves to be very competitive group vs strong units,  and  are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 with the underdog recording a  4-0 ATS record  in the last 4 meetings. Earlier this season, the Warriors beat the Clippers by a 129-127 count at home, and now with revenge on board, are ready to spring an upset and be very competitive again. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 25-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rare for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 54-21 ATS L/23 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.Warriors are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. Western Conference.Warriors are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

GOLDEN STATE has failed to cover 19 of their L/25  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 3-15 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Portland comes in off an easy 129-112 home victory over Cleveland and I am betting they will be much fresher than a Pelicans team playing their  4th consecutive road game on what will be a 5 game west coast road trip and also  off a hard fought emotional back and forth loss to the Golden State Warriors last time out. With Portland playing at home where they have won 19 of 26 games this season, they have an edge. Note: New Orleans has lost 18 of 24 road games this season and are 4-13 ATS off a road loss this season and  2-11 ATS after playing two consecutive road game this season. 

PORTLAND is 10-1 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons.PORTLAND is 39-26 ATS  in home games over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 59-109 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland to cover 

This is a very high total, but for good reason, as these teams have a history of run and gun affairs with their L/9 games going over the set total with the most recent meeting seeing 256 combined points going on the board. The Warriors   are currently on a 6 game win streak and have not scored less than 119 points in any of the six victories on their winning run and are averaging 133.8 points over that stretch with the three pointers reigning down by the bucket  converting 18.6 treys per game during their current  blitz .  Im betting they come out running and gunning again, and for the Clippers to have no choice but to open up as well, in what will be another big time scoring fest. 

Warriors have gone over in 6 of their L/7 Dickson games  . Clips: 4-0 O/U in their  4th straight home game / 9-1 OVER L10 as div dogs  and have gone 6 of 7 times at home vs .600 or better opposition. LA CLIPPERS are 11-1 OVER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 GOLDEN STATE/(LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 60-20 OVER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

These teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. With Brooklyn winning 15 of 20 while Orlando has lost 15 of their L/20. However, Orlando after losing a  120-115 overtime road loss against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday a game that that were leading late, are in desperation mode, and feeling a little humiliated which Im betting makes them dangerous in this spot. Meanwhile, the Nets  exerted alot of energy last time out making big time comebacks in regulation and  then eventually in overtime Wednesday to record a surprising 145-142 road victory over a top tier  Houston Rocket side and could now easily be in an emotional letdown situation, making the home team a viable underdog here. 

The Magic have won 16 of their past 21 home games against the Nets.

Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.Magic are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

St.Louis plays a methodical conservative type of hoops especially at home , where they are  8-1 UNDER as a home favorite or pick this season with a combined average score of 129.4 ppg and  is 6-0 UNDER in home games after playing a game as favorite this season, with a combined average of just  122.8 ppg scored. When St.Louis played St.Jospehs last season both games were well below this set total with 119 and 121 points outputs and Im betting on a similar outcome here tonight. 

Note: St.Jospehs offensive  flow in transition is being tested in a big way as  injuries to Pierfrancesco Oliva and Lamarr Kimble test the team in a big way .  Defence becomes highly important if the Hawks want to be competitive here which adds credence to this being a lower scoring game between jesuit rivals. 

 Saint Louis is 17th in the NCAA in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. The Billikens lead the A-10 in scoring defense, yielding 62.5 ppg.

CBB Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (ST JOSEPHS) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 24-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 126 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

My own head to head power rankings makes Sacramento State a possible SU upset underdog here at N.Arizona in this big Sky Conference tilt.

Sacramento State are off a heart breaking 72-70 home loss to Idaho State on Saturday, and are now desperate for a win. Sacramento State (6-7, 0-4)  are the lone team in the Big Sky without a conference win,  but are better than their record indicates as the Hornets could just as easily be 3-1 in league play, but thanks to their conditioning and concentration deficiencies the  Hornets have had trouble in the later stages of the second half in three of their conference losses. Note: Sacramento State had a 63-58 lead  slip away with 2:30 remaining vs. Northern Colorado, trailed just, 69-67, with 4:00 left at Montana State, and held a 64-62 lead with 2:38 left this past Saturday vs. Idaho State. Bad Breaks, also played a part, and like all good ad bad runs must come to end eventually which Im betting will be the case again tonight . 

Last season, in these teams' only meeting, Sacramento State held a nine-point halftime lead in Flagstaff before NAU outscored the Hornets by a 40-26 margin on the way to a 58-53 Lumberjack victory. The Hornets missed each of their last five FG attempts,  and did not score during the final 2:18, and watched NAU close the last minute on a 6-0 run. Just a couple breaks here tonight for the bad news Hornets and they will take home a  desperately needed victory and more importantly a cover for us . 

• Sacramento State had been 6-2 prior to the current five-game losing streak, so their not completely futile, and have the edge on this line .Sacramento State's four conference losses have come against four of the top five teams in the Big Sky standings.

HC Katz is 15-6 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games as the coach of SACRAMENTO ST.

N ARIZONA is 14-30 ATS L/44 at home when the line is +3 to -3.

Play on Sacramento State to cover 

Belmont enters the 2018-19 season as one of only six non-Power 5 programs to post a Top 100 RPI each of the last eight seasons and must be respected every time they go to court no matter where the game is taking place. FROM A MATCHUP PERSPECTIVE Belmont according to my power rankings should be -2 favs here on the road vs this top tier Jacksonville State hoops program  and are the superior team. The last time these teams met  last season the Bruins were embarrassed at home by a 83-73 count and now HC Byrd will have team ready for some payback. 

CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BELMONT) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins are 100-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BELMONT) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 25-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Belmont to cover 

 My Totals estimates for this game are closer to 142.5 to143 this according to those projections give us value with an over wager . Arkansas State plays a much more wide open style of hoops then Texas Arlington scoring  average 75.2 ppg on offence and have allowed north of 83 ppg in 10 road games . Arlington when pushed can light up the board and had 82 points vs App State recently and Im betting they will be pushed tonight and will do significant offensive damage in a tit that Im betting eclipses this Total. 

ARKANSAS ST is 26-12 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 since 1997 with a combined average score of 144.2 ppg scored. 

CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ARKANSAS ST) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 85 points or more are 63-28 OVER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

The Sixers are a upper echelon NBA team that still has some growing up to do, as their young roster still has not found a way to harness or sustain their energy levels.The Sixers despite of being ultra talented are inconsistent especially on the road where they find themselves tonight in Indiana to play the Pacers. Their futility when it comes to their betting backers bankrolls has been significantly effected as is evident by their sub .500 away record of 10-12 SU and 8-14 ATS. The Sixers also make a habit of following up explosive performances,  like the one they had last time out vs Minnesota ( 149-107)with average at best outputs as is evident by the following trends...PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more this season and is 2-10 ATS  in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season and is 4-12 ATS after scoring 120 points or more this season. Tonight against a equally talented Pacers squad, Im betting their in trouble. Note: The 76ers are just 1-5 ATS vs .600 or better opposition on the road this season. With that said, Im recommending we take Indiana to cover as short home chalk. 

INDIANA is 33-16 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons.INDIANA is 39-26 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA  teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 8-33 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 6-28 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

Golden State came out last night with something to prove and walloped the Denver Nuggets in a start to finish beatdown. Working that hard and exerting that much energy especially in the thin air of the Mile High City , and then hopping on a flight home, will Im betting see the champs exhausted and running on fumes as this game against the visiting Pelicans progresses .With that said, look for a offensively capable New Orleans squad to come out here and actually give the dubs a run for their money in Oakland tonight. 

The Warriors are 1-6 ATS L/7 at home with no rest and are 0-4 ATS when coming off a revenge tilt which they had last night vs the Nuggets for a previous loss.

NEW ORLEANS is 19-8 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

GOLDEN STATE is 3-15 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a negative point diff of 0.7 ppg.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

 Boston and Toronto according to power rankings and  my head to head projections on a a neutral floor  are -2 chalk.  However, with Boston enjoying home court advantage here tonight, the line should be closer to Boston -3 at thus giving us value with this number. It must also be noted that the Raptors: 0-4 L4 in a division road game with the series host  going 7-0 ATS L/7. Im betting nothing changes tonight. 

The season series between the Raptors and Celtics is tied at 1, with each team winning at home. The Raptors won 113-101 on Oct. 19, and the Celtics won 123-116 in overtime Nov. 16

Raptors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference. .Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.Raptors are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

Celtics are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600..BOSTON is 14-3 ATS  in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.Stevens is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or more) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON.

NBA Underdogs (TORONTO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 23-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Boston to cover 

The Bulldogs are looking for their second MVC win of the season while the Bradley Braves are winless to date in league action. The Bulldogs have won two of the last three meetings between the two teams and are hungry to get back into the win column after a road loss at UNI. With that look for Drake  a good ball moving team and an explosive down town shooting side, that averages 79.2 points per game this season, the highest mark in the Valley and 63rd nationally to be dangerous underdogs vs a struggling side.

BRADLEY is 1-8 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game over the last 3 seasons.

BRADLEY is 1-7 ATS  as a home favorite or pick this season.

Drake is 11 -4 ATS on the season, and get the nod again.

Play on Drake to cover 

Evansville is a tough team that plays hard and will not be easily intimidated even though this a transition season, not even here on the road vs very good Missouri State team . It must also be noted that the Purple Aces have only lost one of their L/9 by more than this point spread. They did lose last time out, in a letdown situation after upsetting league leaders Loyola Chicago in a previous game,  but this team has shown resilience especially for their betting backers off of defeat as HC McCarty is 7-0 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of EVANSVILLE. 

MISSOURI ST is 4-15 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Evansville to cover 

The Magic are playing well as is evident by back to back wins vs top tier opponents the Boston Celtics and Houston Rockets. After those victories  Orlando is brimming with confidence, something the group from Motown is not exhibiting .  The Pistons have lost 15 of their L/19  overall and even when they work hard are losing, and now in a state of despair they are fade material.

Tonight despite of going against a lower tier Magic team their problems wont be easily taken care of, as the Magic sport a 7-1 ATS mark here on this floor while the Pistons, are 1-11 home vs .500 or less  non-div conference  opposition. 

DETROIT is 9-21 ATS in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA teams(DETROIT) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent are 23-72 SU L/23 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Orlando to cover 

Iowa enters this game against Penn State on a 3 game win streak, and Im betting it reaches four after tonight. Whats makes Iowa a up trending team on my power rankings is their ability to play a much better bran of defence than in the past as is evident by at he Hawkeyes  80th overall rankings  in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. That’s  up significantly fro their  242nd  ranking last season. Tonight I look for their defence to be the difference maker vs a  Penn State side that is  struggling to score points. The Nittany Lions are the only team to average fewer than 60 points in conference play, and they shot only 36.7 percent from the field in a 71-56 loss against No. 6 Michigan State on Sunday. It must also be noted that visiting Hawkeyes have had  this tilt circled  on their calendars since the two losses they suffered in this series last season and will be primed for payback. Note: Iowa is 6-1 SU L/7 with revenge in this series.Penn State is 0-4 SU/ATS in conference play this season. I know Iowa's  leading scorer  Tyler Cook might not play tonight because of some nagging injuries, but  they got the job done without him vs Northwestern while showing their residence, and tonight they have the guns to get things done again.

Play on Iowa to cover 

Chicago under their new interim head coach Jim Boylen originally wanted to implement a defence first system, but that plan looks like it has gone out the window as the Bulls are taking part in run and gun games on a consistent basis of late, with their L/5 going over the total, with a combined average of 231 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, LAL since James went down with an injury has consistently struggled to score, and are averaging 99.2 ppg in tier L/5 to the hardwood. With the Lakers desperately trying to get their offence untracked, Im betting they will be more aggressive tonight vs a side that has allowed more than 123 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood.The combination of the Bulls lack of D, and the Lakers need to up the ante on offence Im expecting a fairly high scoring affair that goes over the set total. 

NBA road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a below average defensive team (102  or PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 30-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 225.2 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

 The Nuggets have been playing at a high level lately, especially at home, where they are 18-3 SU and have won their last 12, while the visiting defending champs Golden State have been playing very inconsistent  basketball despite of being healthy and from a betting perspective are just 4-11 ATS L/15 overall and not as ferocious as they once were. The last time these teams played here the Nuggets triumphed and Im betting they get the  cover here in this spot. 

 DENVER is 22-10 ATSwhen playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons

The Nuggets are 13-0 ATS/SU  at home with rest off a win in which there were eight-plus lead changes and it is before the All-Star break.DENVER is 12-1 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.DENVER is 17-5 ATS in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons

GOLDEN STATE is 2-14 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons . GOLDEN STATE is 8-18 ATS against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Denver to cover 

Kermit Davis took over a  Ole Miss hoops program in transition, but has surprised with his ability to get the most out of this group especially with what looks to be the best backcourt in the nation, with. Devontae Shuler, Terence Davis and Breein Tyree.  Tonight however, despite of being  undefeated  in SEC play and at home this season, his Rebs will have his hands full, with a LSU Tigers side  that has gotten progressively better after  a  eight-man rotation has been put in place. I have projected one possession game so we have value taking points here with the underdog. 

CBB road team vs. the money line (LSU) - in a game involving two excellent free throw shooting teams (73% or better ), average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a good ball handling team (14.5 TO or less ) after 15+ games have won 18 of the L/29 such matchups SU, for a 62% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking in at 3 points per game which gives us value on this line.

Play on LSU to cover 

The Hawks are starting to play much better basketball of late winning 7 of their L/14 SU and have  covered 10 of their L/18 overall  and despite of losing by DDs, to a top tier  Milwaukee side  in their last home game were competitive in that tilt for 3 quarters. Note: 

Hawks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a double-digit loss at home.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.ATLANTA in their L/24 games  after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average point diff of 2.2 ppg.

In 18 home games this season this young Hawks side, has also not been an easy out with the average point differential clicking in at 6 ppg. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is only 12 -10 on the road this season, with the average point differential with coming by an average  roughy 3 ppg.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are just 10-32 SU L/5 seasons  for a go against 76 % with the average point diff clicking in at 7.9 ppg.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Both these teams are methodical defence first teams, but according to my projections the number has been chiseled down by almost 5 points by the lines-makers in accordance with public perceptions . Im not betting that we wont see a physical grinding game, Im just estimating the combined score will eclipse this offer. Line value  resides with an OVER wager. 

St.Louis and their opponents in their 15 games this season have seen a combined average of 130.1 ppg scored. Fordham has seen a combined average of 131.6 ppg scored in their games this season. 

FORDHAM in their L/11 games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 127 ppg scored.

FORDHAM is 13-2 OVER  after scoring 65 points or less 4 straight games with a combined average of 141.2 ppg scored.

CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (SAINT LOUIS) - good defensive team (40-42.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-17.5 TO's) are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons with a combined average of 140.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

 No.3 Tennessee won the last meeting between the two programs (84-66 in last year’s SEC Tournament),  and now Arkansas will have some payback in mind. It must be noted that Arkansas has won six of the last seven overall meeting in this series, including each of the last two meetings in Thompson-Boling Arena. From a historical perspective this line is bloated , Note: In the 36 encounters since 1991-92, the average margin of victory in the series is 8.6 points. In 25 of those 36 games, the game was decided by single digits, including 13 games where the margin was five points or less. History does have a way of repeating itself even though these tow teams talent levels and performance are on currently divergent paths.  This season Arkansas is 10-5 with two of the losses coming in overtime and three times Arkansas had the ball with a chance to tie or wins. Arkansas’ five losses have been by 2, 1, 4, 6 and 6 points (3.8 average).Needless to say they are competitive and being slightly underrated here vs a public team. Im betting on them making a game of this , and more importantly getting us the cover a line that should be closer -11.5 according to my data. 

CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (ARKANSAS) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 52-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Arkansas to cover 

My own projections make Ohio a 5 point fav here, and thus we are getting value with this line.  The last two meetings here between these two programs has seen Ohio win by DDs. Im betting on a Kent State team that loss by a 91-65 score toEastern Michigan on the road last time out to be on the wrong end of the score again. 

OHIO U is 62-39 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick with the average point diff of 5.6 ppg. 

CBB Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (KENT ST) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games are 3-58 SU  L5 seasons with an average point differential of 19.9 ppg. 

Play on Ohio to cover 

The Portland Blazers played a hard fought affair in the thin air of the Mile High City last night and lost to Denver. Now on tired legs they go go against the fastest pace team in the league the Sacramento Kings.  Thats not a good situation for them here and Im betting the Blazers are fade material in this spot as they are just 1-7 SU L/8 after playing in the Rocky Mountains against the Nuggets. Meanwhile, the Kings are 15-8 SU at home this season and 11-1 SU/ATS on a totals line of 229 or less.

PORTLAND is 38-61 ATS off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 12-43 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover 

The Blazers played last night in the Mile High City in a hard fought affair, and will now be on tired legs which will effect their ability to run and gun with the one of the quickest pace teams in the NBA the Sacramento Kings. This Im betting will directly effect the total combined score of this tilt here in California's State Capital tonight. Note: The Kings have gone UNDER 4 straight with a 1/0 rest situation. 

SACRAMENTO is 12-2 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207.8 ppg scored.  

PORTLAND is 43-29 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213 ppg scored.

PORTLAND in their L/46 games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. PORTLAND in their L/31 games when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 219 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO in their L/80 ages when the total is 220 to 229.5 have seen a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored.

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%), in January games are 28-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Im not buying into the Jayhawks  preseason hype that had them ranked No. 1 in the AP poll .  I know Kansas has shown flashes of brilliance and are off a  road win at Baylor last time out, but overall they still have showed me their weaknesses when they smoked by Iowa State a couple games back by a 77-60 count.  I can't get that beatdown out of my head, and remember saying to my self wow has this program degenerated. Now enters a revenge minded Longhorns team fresh off a hard fought loss to 15-1 Texas Tech last time out, and brimming with confidence despite of losing .

The Horns  lost to KU twice  last season which is good news for their betting supporters as they are  9-3 ATS as dogs in double revenge mode  and 9-2 overall with revenge overall.  Add to that Texas has done well here on the road going 4-0 ATS run at Allen Fieldhouse  and we have what looks like is a value selection backing the young men from Austin to cover .   

KANSAS is 2-12 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS is 5-14 ATSin home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Texas to cover 

The Spurs head home after a 122-112 loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday night in a rematch of the two teams' epic double-overtime game, won by San Antonio, 154-147, on Thursday. Im betting the Spurs are now on tired legs and in a natural deflated letdown situation which makes the susceptible to a down game. I know Charlottes struggling, but their also desperate and a league wide trend supports them here on this line as well. Note:NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. With that said, Im betting the Hornets get us a cover here on a value line as underdogs. 

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover

 Monmouth swept last year's season series vs Siena and match up well vs this  Siena group according to my current power rankings. MU has won four straight regular season games over Siena at the Times Union Center and  and despite of this being 3rd game in 5 nights, are viable cover dogs in this road spot vs their hosts. Monmouth has covered 2 of their L/3 and have been competitive . Meanwhile, Siena off a rare win last time out have recent history of following up their victories with ATS clunkers as is evident by the following trends: Siena 1-8 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons and is 2-11 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

SIENA is 1-8 ATS  versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.SIENA is 0-8 ATS  after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SIENA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after a win by 6 points or less are 4-27 ATS L5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Monmouth to cover 

Duke is off an emotional game against Florida State last time out where they scored late to seal a win vs Florida State. That hard fought effort will have them in a letdown spot, vs a grinding Syracuse team that will try to make this a physical event .  Im obviously not calling for an upset here, but I am betting on the Orange getting us the cover. 

CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SYRACUSE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a road win against a conference rival are 52-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Syracuse to cover 

The Trail Blazers have despite of a couple of recent road wins  have overall not travelled well this season and own a  8-10  record on the road this season and  have struggled against the Nuggets of late and have lost four- straight to Denver dating back to last season. Im betting nothing changes tonight. 

Denver has won  17 of 20 home games this season and overall 7 of their L/8 H/A and covered 4 of their L/5 and own a 5-0 SU/ATS mark vs division opponents this season. 

DENVER is 12-3 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs SU  (PORTLAND) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a home win by 10 points or more are just 159-518 L/23 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking in at 7.7 ppg. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

The Ducks  have revenge on board for  a 20-point loss in the semi-finals of the Pac-12 tourney last season, and are desperate for wins as they are just 8-5 on the season, with numerous boosters beginning the cat calls for HC Altmans job after their ugly home loss to Oregon State and than to UCLA  last time out.  The Ducks need this win badly and should play like their hairs on fire vs a  USC side they trail by 3 games. We have revenge and desperation as our allies here in backing Oregon on their own home floor. 

OREGON is 10-2 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.OREGON is 11-3 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.Altman is 12-4 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less as the coach of OREGON ( which was the case vs UCLA last time out 87-84)

 CBB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (USC) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 8-32 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against  80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Oregon to cover 

This line is bloated according to  my projections. Tulane has covered 3 straight at home and have not lost on their own home floor by more than 4 points in their L/5 overall, and have the capability to cover here today as DD home dogs. No matter what the public perception here, tor the final results we have an edge here with the pup.

Memphis will play its third true road game of the season and is in search of its first win in such contests with losses at LSU (Nov. 13) and Houston (Jan. 6). The Tigers are 1-5 in games played on a road or neutral court this season.

Tulane has flaunted what Dunleavy has called his deepest team since his arrival. Ten of the Green Wave's 12 players to see court time this season average at least 11.5 minutes per game.

CBB Road favorites of 10 or more points (MEMPHIS) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 6-27 ATS for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB Underdogs of 10 or more points (TULANE) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (74-78 PPG), after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games are 30-9 ATS L/23 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover 

The Hawks were annihilated by the Bucks when they met last week (144-112), and will now get a chance to avenge that defeat here at home . The Hawks deserve out respect here as they have proven their abilities recently against another top tier team by  positing a dramatic 123-121 win over Philadelphia and have confidence heading into this tilt. Meanwhile, Hawks are explosive enough offensively to offer us plenty of value on this line either by being competitive from start to finish or getting us a back door cover. It must also be noted that the Bucks super star Giannis Antekokounmpo, who is experiencing and dealing with  hip and quad injuries will Im betting also effect the flow of this Bucks team. 

MILWAUKEE is 1-11 ATS  versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. 

Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more 22-7 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. NBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 22-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

These teams play fast paced hoops. Rider can score efficiently averaging 77 ppg on average but their defence is atrocious allowing 82+ ppg. Meanwhile, Niagara averages 78.3 ppg at home, while allowing 75.9 ppg in slightly elevated action. When these types of teams meet they usually feed off the others energy which Im this afternoon results in a fairly high scoring game that eclipses the total. 

NIAGARA is 10-2 OVER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combine average of 168.9 ppg scored. 

NIAGARA is 13-2 OVER  when the total is 159.5 or more  over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 176.2 ppg scored.NIAGARA is 9-0 OVER  in a home game where the total is 160 or more over the last 2 seasons with a combine average of 181. 9 ppg. 

 Home teams against the total (NIAGARA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 75 points or more 4 straight games are 24-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with a combined average of 164.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Purdue Fort Wayne is the Summit League's lone undefeated team in conference action at 4-0 while holding a 12-7 overall record, but all good and bad things must eventually come to an end , Im betting this streak does as well here at South Dakota vs a disciplined we'll coached Coyotes group that is committing just 11.7 turnovers per game which ranks them in the top 50 in the nation in that category. 

I know the Coyotes have been suffering with injuries, and are a sub .500 team, but considering how well guys like sophomore Stanley Umude  has played  averaging 19 points and 7.4 rebounds per game over his last five games this team looks better than most might anticipate. 

South Dakota has won the L/4 meetings in this series and gets the nod again here on their own home court. 

CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (IUPU-FT WAYNE) - poor defensive team - allowing 77+ points/game on the season, after scoring 85 points or more 3 straight games  are 6-26 SU/ATS L/5 seasons .

Play on South Dakota to cover 

 No John Wall in the lineup no problem  as  Otto Porter Jr. has upped his game and really looks like the real deal, making the Wizards a under rated team, especially with Bradley Beal playing lights out some of the best hoops of career . With that said, Im betting on the  Wizards  6-1 ATS L/7  to come out here looking to make a statement vs a talented Toronto team that they they have double revenge against vs two losses suffered earlier this season. With Toronto  looking ahead to  a matchup with  Boston up next and not fully focused on a team that they have owned ,  I expect the Wizards to surprise the visitors here and more importantly get us the cover.

Brooks is 44-26 ATS as a home underdog in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 55-101 L/5 seasons for go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington Wizards to cover 

My projections estimate that this total should be closer 131, thus giving us value on this line. Marist has gone over in 3 straight games, and have upped their pace from earlier in the season. Today vs a methodical St.Peters team Im betting they continue to speed things up, which will force their opponent into a opening up a bit themselves. This Im betting results in a combined score that eclipses this beatable total.

MARIST is 12-3 OVER after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons. 

CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (MARIST) - off a home loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a struggling team (20-40%) are 30-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 135.4 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Sacramento enters this game as one of the most explosive teams in the NBA and are   averaging 13.1 seconds per possession  - a pace that ranked second in the league after Thursday night's games. The Kings also were leading the NBA in fast-break points at 22.6 per game. That type of system matches up well visiting Charlotte a side that is struggling mightily having lost  four of five games and seven of 10 and were smashed by DDs in their last trip to the floor. Note:

CHARLOTTE is 0-8 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 2-26 L/5 seasons for a 93% go against conversion rate with the average point diff  clicking in at 11.9 ppg.

Play on Sacramento to cover 

The Bulls are exhausted as they play their 3rd road game in 4 days, and must now deal with the thin air and altitude in Salt Lake City . The Bulls have had to deal with some explosive offensive teams of late, and have gotten out of a defence first system that has been implemented since Hoiberg was fired, and today on tired legs will have to revert back to being more conservative, which I'm betting results in a fairly low scoring affair. Note: Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 1 or more consecutive unders  are 39-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 The Anteaters  come into here to Fullerton looking to get revenge for a s 71-55 beatdown  in the Big West tourney title game last season , a defeat that hurt a great deal because the Titans got to playing the NCAA tournament. Tonight Im betting Cal Irvine get their revenge behind a 5 returning starters that have already earned a 12-4 record on the season and up trending in power rankings.  Note: The Anteaters a re 5-1 -1 ATS L/6 here in this series and have cashed 3 straight SU/ATS with. a.500 or better record in  conference revenge while on the road. 

Play on Cal Irvine to cover 

Houston had their undefeated season come to a screeching halt at Temple last time out and now in a letdown situation will come home and go against a rebuilding Wichita State program with a top tier coach at the helm in Gregg Marshall who would like nothing more than to get revenge for a loss in last seasons AAC tourney.  With that said, the Shockers are 8-0-1 ATS as dogs of more than 9 points under head coach Gregg Marshall and  even though they are on a 3 game losing streak won't be be easily intimidated here , not even against a quality Cougar team. 

Play on Wichita State to cover 

LSU has come a long way in a short period of time and are now  ranked as the AP’s preseason No. 23 team and despite a 11-3 record and 4-0 SU run Im betting will have their hands full with Arkansas here on the road. Its never easy to grab victories in the SEC in on the road, and the Tigers just don't have a record of success when traveling vs conference opposition as is evident by going  just 3-19 SU  in its last 22 SEC away games, which includes losing 7 straight as visitors.   Add to that the  Hogs have revenge on board for 2 losses in this series last season and you have a  home team that will be hungry to take down the visitor here. It must be noted that the last seven times the Razorbacks have hosted the Bayou Bengals here Bud Walton Arena with revenge they  have cashed  7 straight times  ATS. 

LSU is 4-13 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.  ARKANSAS is 7-0 ATS  after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less over the last 2 seasons.Anderson is 14-3 ATS  as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick in all games he has coached since 1997

CBB  home team (ARKANSAS) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 39% or less on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47%  or more of their shots are 83-44 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Arkansas to cover 

This is not a good matchup on paper but I expect Florida's physicality and defence to help them stand tall here and get us the cover vs a top tier Tennessee program. KenPom has the Gators’ defense ranked ninth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Gators are also ninth in Division I ball with only 60.7 points allowed per contest and have covered 3 straight at home. 

CBB favorite (TENNESSEE) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 7-36 ATS L/22 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida to cover 

 Texas Tech behind a potent D continues to pile up the wins and are now 14-1 SU on the season with their only loss to powerful Duke. However, from a bettors perspective not all is good with the Techies as they are a bankroll depleting 2-13 ATS L/15 when favored and are just 2-6 ATS L/8 on the road when laying points and overall are on a 1-7-1 ATS run. Texas at 10-5 may have not shown the same potency as their instate rivals, but Im betting they muster up a big effort here this Saturday afternoon vs an opponent that has not won in Austin in  23 years, 0-22 SU. 

TEXAS is 27-13 ATS L/40  in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games and s 16-5 ATS  as a home underdog of 3 points or less or pick. 

CBB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG), after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games are 91-48 ATS L/23 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Texas to cover 

Duke is a behemoth opponent and obviously the best in the country. However, because of this they have a huge target on their backs and must almost always play full out because of this. Thus they are not always as fresh as thye need to be because of their strength of schedules and are vulnerable to being upended by a very talented team like the Florida State Seminoles especially here on the road. Duke, will be playing in just its second true road game of the season in a very unfriendly environment. FSU is 13-2, ranked 13th nationally and last year made a run to the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight – the same round in which Duke finished.The Seminoles went toe-to-toe with the Blue Devils in a 100-93 loss in Durham, N.C., last season, and blew Duke out, 93-78, when the two last met in Tallahassee in 2017 and wont be intimidated here in front of a boisterous crowd. Take the points.

Florida State is 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series and 5-0 ATS in the 2nd off back and back home  vs opposition off a SU win. 

CBB Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DUKE) - off a road blowout win by 20 points or more, in a game involving two top-level teams (80% or more) are 15-43 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Florida State to cover 

Over the its last three games at Gentile Arena, Loyola's offense has fired on all cylinders,registering an average of  78.0 points per game, while hitting 61.5 percent (88-for-143) of its field goal attempts and 46.4 percent (26-for-56) of its three-point tries. This is where thye play their best hoops, and after their ugly clunker against Evansville last time out Im expecting a spirited effort vs Illinois State today and a cover. Note: In its last two meetings with Illinois State, Loyola has held the Redbirds to 55.0 ppg, 36.4 percent (44-for-121) from the field, and 30.9 percent (17-for-55) from long range.

LOYOLA-IL is 17-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 10 ppg. 

Play on Loyola Chicago to cover 

The Wildcats are coming off their most encouraging victory in weeks, a 72-71 win over West Virginia that featured the largest comeback (21 points) in school history and today here in Hilton buoyed by that confidence building win will be very competitive. Meanwhile, Iowa State after a big win vs Kansas last week came out with a clunker in Baylor in their followup and lost straight up, and despite of now being recharged wont find it easy sledding here today. IOWA ST is 0-6 ATS L/6 versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 31% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS ST is 20-9 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Kansas State to cover 

Im going to brave here this week and take the points with Clemson.The Tigers lost to the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils in Durham, 87-68.  They committed a lot of turnovers in that game,  but are more than capable of hanging tough here with their ability to be physical under the glass.  They were only rebounded,  by Duke by a 40-36. Clemson is averaging 35.8 rebounds per game, while the Cavs snatch 34.7 per tilt. That Im betting will be huge for them here vs a Cavs side that lives in and dies in transition. When thye teams met in the play offs lat season on a neutral court Clemson lost 64-58 and when thye met in Clemson the season before Virginia eked out a 77-74 win and today Im betting the Tigers get us the cover . Clemson is 2-0 ATS in its last two home games.

Play on Clemson to cover 

The last meeting in this series saw, the Flashes drop a 71-67 decision at home against the Eagles and they now have revenge on board. The Golden Flashes own a balanced lineup of scoring with five players scoring in double-figures and have won 20 of the last 23 games and are not easy outs for any team , and get the nod here getting points.

KENT ST is 60-35 ATS in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games since 1997

E MICHIGAN is 17-37 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  80% or better since 1997. HC Murphy is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or better) as the coach of E MICHIGAN.  is 2-9 ATS in all games this season.

Play on Kent State to cover 

Dallas and Minnesota have played their L/3 meetings very closely with average point differential of 3.3 ppg deciding these games. My projections once again estimate a closely contested affair with  road dog flashing a value on the line.

DALLAS is 33-20 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

DALLAS is 32-16 ATS ( versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 3-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a losing record are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover 

 The Houston Rockets had a huge 10 game winning streak snapped last time out vs the Milwaukee Bucks, but are still in top tier form, and hitting on all cylinders behind their star James Harden who is averaging 39.5 points per game, during a current 15-game span. Tonight I expect the Rockets to come out looking to bounce back and merciless fashion , and get revenge for a loss in their previous meeting with Cleveland  by a 117-108 on Nov. 24. There will be no mercy rule implemented by the Rockets vs a Cavs team that  ranks dead last in the league in efficiency, allowing 116.9 points per 100 possessions. The Cavs will have to muster up some offensive fireworks  of their own  vs the 26th ranked Defensive efficiency of the Rockets or be blown off the court in a game that I expect will surpass this number with ease. My projections estimate that the Rockets will score north of 116 here this evening, which  is a very good omen for our chances, as the Rockets are 18-0 OVER  when they score 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 239.1 ppg scored. 

The Cavaliers are 15-4 OVER on the road with rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent taking more than 30 percent of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average of 226.4 ppg scored.The Rockets are 26-6 OVER as a favorite with less than two days rest after a loss in which they led by double digits with a combined average of 222 ppg going on the board. 

Play OVER 

This game pairs last year’s regular-season champion in the Horizon League (NKU) vs. the conference tournament champion Raiders, who were also the preseason favorite in this year’s coaches poll. NKU was second.NKU comes in 13-4 overall and 3-1 in Horizon League play, and WSU is 8-9, 2-2. It is a key early game for positioning in the league and Im betting it will be closely contested despite of what is a divergence in records but not head to head talent.  In. physical game look for Loudon Love, a diverse skilled and bulky 6-foot-9, 280-pound sophomore center and  a preseason first team all-Horizon selection, to key to Wright State covering here tonight.

 line according to my projections is off by almost 4 points. True line value here sits at -2.5 favouring Northern Kentucky which suggests according to my data  a one possession game. 

WRIGHT ST is 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons and  is s 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. 

N KENTUCKY is 4-13 ATS L/17 in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games.

CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (WRIGHT ST) - off a road win by 10 points or more against opponent off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 77-34 ATS L/22 SEASONS FOR A 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Wright State to cover 

Detroit enters this game playing horrendous defence, allowing an average of 113 ppg in their L/7 trips to the hardwood. Tonight against a run and gun opponent in Sacramento Im betting their going to get torched again, and will have no choice but to offer up some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court. This Im betting leads to a high scoring affair that eclipses this number. 

Note: The Kings have allowed an average of 116 ppg against this season ranking them 28th in the league, and scored an average of 115 ppg ranking 5th in the league with 13 of their 21 home games going over the set total. The Kings are also 2nd in pace in the league. 

The Pistons are 16-0-2 OVER L18 as a dog off a game as a dog facing an opponent making less than 16 free throws per game. The Kings are 19-4 OU L/23 facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game and it is before the All-Star break with a combined average of 237.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half 31-8 OVER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with a combined average of 236.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Play OVER 

Penn State is better than their 7-8 overall record would indicate and were competitive in their  loss at No. 2 Michigan, and  should have beaten Indiana and probably could have upended Maryland in College Park if it were not for a combination of bad calls and some nasty choking. The Lions are talented but in cohesive offensively at time, but are more than capable upending any team in this conference and here tonight as DD pups get my support vs Nebraska side that has lost their first two conference games this season. 

PENN ST is 8-1 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.PENN ST is 12-4 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

PENN ST is 8-0 ATS after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists over the last 2 seasons and 9-1 ATS  after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons and is 6-0 ATS  after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 season.Chambers is 11-2 ATS  after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more as the coach of PENN ST. 

Play on Penn State to cover 

The Owls have won two straight after defeating Louisiana Tech, 78-66, on Saturday and have momentum entering this game vs UTSA . Rice is connecting on 43.8% from the field and 34.0% from three  and has the ability to compete vs a side that has won 8 of their L/10 games overall. 

RICE is 8-1 ATS  after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.TX-SAN ANTONIO is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Rice to cover 

The Celtics have won 4 straight games after pummelling the Indiana Pacers last night by a 135-108 count  and enter this game vs Miami in top form .  It must be noted that the Celtics are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win and 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Meanwhile, the  Heat have lost  back-to-back games after and are suddenly struggling on offence and have averaged 90.5 ppg in this tilts and should have problems scoring again vs a strong Celtics D.

BOSTON is 14-2 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Celtics are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Miami.

The Celtics are 14-0-1 ATS /15-0 SU L/15 as a favorite when they are off two games in which they had twice as many assists as turovers.The Heat are 0-11 ATS/SU L/11 when the line is within 3 of pick after playing as a home favorite when they won 2 straight vs current opponent. 

Play on Boston to cover 

The Celtics exploded for 135 points last night in a win vs the Indiana Pacers, and no I expect a reversion to the norm from a scoring output perspective , as they will be on tired legs after running gunning last night. I expect the Celtics to revert back to their usual conservative transitory system which has resulted in the 3rd best points per game defence in the league .Im also betting they stand tall, behind a fairly methodical 19th ranked pace. Meanwhile, Miami a defence first team with aggressive physical traits, owns the 6th best defensive  points  per game ranking behind a 22nd ranked pace and 25th ranked offense and should easily help contribute to a methodical clock burning snooze fest.  

MIAMI is 13-4 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons has seen a combine average of 203.9 ppg scored.

The Heat are 0-11 UNDER L/11 at home when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers with a combined average of 178.2 ppg scored with no game exceeding 195 points. The Celtics are 0-13 UNDER  as a road favorite off a 10+ win in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with the combined average score clicking in at 185.4 ppg with no game exceeding 203 points. 

Play UNDER 

After watching this get bet down from 128 Im betting we have alot of value here according to 133 total combined point projections.

FLA ATLANTIC is 7-0 OVER  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 150 ppg scored OLD DOMINION is 6-0 OVER in road games after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 158.9 ppg and  is 13-3 OVER  in road games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 140.1 ppg scored.

CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (FLA ATLANTIC) - poor shooting team - shooting 42% or less on the season, after 2 straight games making 37% of their shots or worse are 54-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

My own projections estimate that these teams will combined for 146+ points here tonight thus giving value on this totals line. It must be noted Nevada got steamrolled by New Mexico 85-58 last time out, and will be very ready here to get back some lost respect and with that I expect they will mercilessly come at San Jose State and just keep pouring the points down, which will result in a much faster paced higher scoring game than the lines makers expect.  

CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (NEVADA) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 60 points or less 2 straight games are 24-4 OVER with a combined average of 154.3 ppg scored.

CBBRoad teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (SAN JOSE ST) - after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 29-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Trailblazers have proven themselves to be highly inconsistent this season despite of some flashes of brilliance and are just are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win which was the case vs NYK last time out. With this being the Blazers 4th game in 6 days Im expecting a energy saving effort here tonight against a young Bulls side that Im sure their over looking. I know the Bulls have lost 4 straight but they have proven their competitive ability recently against top tier teams like Indiana and Toronto losing hard fought closely contested affairs by 3 and 6 points respectively, and have the ability to keep this game close as well and get us the cover via a physical defence that is improving significantly of late as is evident by holding 5 of their L/9 opponents under 96 points or less.

The Trailblazers are 0-12 ATS and 3-9 SU off a game as a favorite in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points  ad all 3 wins came by 4 points or less.The Bulls are 14-1-1 ATS L/16  off a 10+ loss in a home game when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent and they won 10 of those games SU with only 1 loss coming by more than 9 points. 

CHICAGO is 21-8 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

The Jazz come home off a 4 game road trip on tired and legs and in an emotional letdown spot after playing the Milwaukee Bucks last time out and losing 114-102. That  after putting up a solid fight for the first 3 quarters before being out scored 30-16 in the final period. Meanwhile, Orlando will be ready to compete in desperation mode after 3 straight ugly road losses. Note: NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 34-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Magic are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.Jazz are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400

The Magic are 15-0 ATS L/15 as a road 8+ dog with less than two days rest after playing as a road dog when they are off two games in which they allowed 100+ points and it is before the All-Star break. The Magic are 8-0 ATS as a road 8+ dog after playing as a road dog facing an opponent taking more than 30 percent of their shots from beyond the arc with non of the 6 SU losses coming by more than 7 points. 

The Jazz are 0-8-1 ATS at home with rest off a 10+ loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game and lost 7 of those games SU. 

 Play on Orlando to cover 

This line according to my numbers is bloated considering the Dallas Mavs current form that has seen them lose  three straight and 11 of 14 and are banged up with their star guard Luka Doncic dealing with a nagging back issue. That  is not a good  omen for the home team playing their 6th game in 10 nights and having struggled against  Phoenix  in the recent past going just  0-5 against Suns while  scoring an average of just 93 points a game .DALLAS is 7-17 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.DALLAS is 8-18 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Phoenix Suns to cover ( LATE STEAM)

Brooklyn a team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ppg scored and pace at 22nd,    enters this game on tired legs and will be in no shape to run and gun here tonight even though they go against a Atlanta team with the fastest pace and worst ppg allowed in the league. Note: BROOKLYN in 12 games  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season have seen a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored. Because of the Nets fatigue factor Im betting this total is a on the high side and we have value with an under wager here.

The Hawks are 0-17 UNDER L/17 as a road 8+ dog with no rest after they had less than 15% of their points from free throws with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 185.9 ppg with the highest scoring game seeing 217 points go on the board.

The Nets are 0-8 UNDER L/8 as a 8+ favorite with rest off a 10+ loss when they won 2 straight vs current opponent with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 174 ppg with all the games seeing at least one side stay under the 99 point output plateau. 

ATLANTA is 13-2 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 203.2 ppg scored.

Under is 6-0 in Hawks last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 10-2 in Hawks last 12 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 7-3 in Hawks last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 36-16 in Hawks last 52 games following a ATS win.Under is 13-6 in Hawks last 19 Wednesday games.

Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Brooklyn.Under is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ATLANTA) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-4 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The 76ers smashed the visiting Wizards 132-115 on Tuesday night and now the Wizards  have revenge on board.Washington has won four of its past five at home and are playing their best ball there despite of being without star John Wall.Tonight Im betting they make life difficult for the 76ers and get us the cover. 

PHILADELPHIA is 3-11 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. 

The 76ers are 0-18 ATS and 1-17 SU L/18 when the line is within 3 of pick  on the opening line off a win as a favorite when they are facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds. The one victory for the 76ers came by just 2 points. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 55-100 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Washington Wizards to cover 

Kansas State has revenge on board for two ugly losses to West Virginia  last season by 12 points at Manhattan  and 38 in the rematch at Morgantown. The Wildcats lost last week at home to Texas in their home opener, but will be very prepared to revenge those above mentioned losses making them a good team to back here. It must also be noted that Huggins is 8-82-1 ATS in SU conference losses against vs opponents looking for revenge .Weber is 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of KANSAS ST.

Play on Kansas State to cover 

Houston, which has won its first 15 games to open the season and is one of only three undefeated teams remaining in the nation, enters Wednesday's game on the heels of a 90-77 win over Memphis on Sunday inside the Fertitta Center.The Cougars are in top 10 nationally in multiple defensive categories, including opponents' field goal percentage (36.2, second), opponents' 3-point field goal percentage (26.4, fifth), and scoring defense (59.2 points per game, seventh).Houston is playing its first road game since Dec. 8, a 10-point victory at Oklahoma State. This version of the Houston hoops program Im betting is a special group, and will be as dangerous on the road as they are at home.Temple and Houston are meeting for the ninth time, with the Cougars holding a 6-2 lead in the series. Houston swept the Owls last season, including an 80-59 victory in Philadelphia and get the nod again.

HOUSTON is 9-2 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season.

HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.Sampson is 18-4 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins as the coach of HOUSTON.

Play on Houston to cover

Play on Houston to cover 

Vanderbilt according to my power rankings matches up well here in this SEC tilt, and while its never easy winning on the road in this conference very much have an edge and upset possibilities attached to them vs a Georgia team that was annihilated vs Tennessee last time out by a 96-50 count as 13.5 point dogs. It must be noted that  Georgia's HC Crean is 0-7 ATS L/7 after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half in all games he has coached which was the case last time out. Hey folks I know this is a young Vanderbilt group, but they have a kid by the name  of Shittu  who was named the conference's Freshman of the Week who balances a team with alot of chemistry. 

Nine Commodores have scored in double figures in a game so far this season and Vanderbilt's average height is (6 feet, 5 inches) and ranks 17th nationally according to KenPom. 

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 

Oklahoma are off a hard fought win vs instate rivals Oklahoma State last time out  and will now be in a letdown situation against a strong Texas Tech side, that has just one loss this season and that was to Duke in a game that they were very competitive. Texas Tech is a perfect 9-0 this season at home , but just 3-6 ATS thanks to bloated public trap lines associated with their top tier play. But today at around 6 points we have enough value to believe that the RedRaiders have a number that they can cover against. The Red Raiders and Sooners have split the last three seasons with the home team winning the last six matchups (rinse and repeat option is on board here).

Difference maker: Texas Tech’s defense is operating at an all time optimal historic level. It has an adjusted defensive efficiency of 83.5, which includes an astronomical field goal defense. Teams are averaging less 1 point per possession and only one opponent has surpassed 0.9 PPP. 

OKLAHOMA is 2-9 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.OKLAHOMA is 0-7 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons and is  is 0-6 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. 

TEXAS TECH is 16-7 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons. 

TEXAS TECH is 17-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread .

CBB Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TEXAS TECH) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (80% or better ) are  83-43 ATS L/L/22 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Texas Tech to cover 

Purdue's Carsen Edwards, who is leading the Big Ten in scoring at 25.5 points per game comes to town looking to help his Boilermakers upset Big 10 power house Michigan State tonight, and  whether Purdue turns the trick or not Im betting there is value on this line with the  visiting underdog. Note: MICHIGAN ST is 4-14 ATS L/18 off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons. 

We all know physical Michigan State is , and how tough they are under the glass,  and Purdue can't match that, but the Spartans have a tendency to run and gun with reckless abandon, and the Boilermakers are a team that can make them pay in transition. PURDUE is 10-2 ATS  vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 3 seasons.

injury update: Michigan State  is going to play a third straight games without junior guard Joshua Langford due to an ankle injury . He is a big part of  the Spartans' top tier junior class, as he  averages 15 points per game and will be missed against this type of opponent. 

PURDUE is 9-2 ATS  when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Purdue to cover 

The Thunder have revenge on board for a loss they suffered to the Wolves earlier this season just before Christmas here in Oklahoma City, and  are also off an embarrassing home loss to Washington last time out and will want to bounce back in a way to get back some lost respect. Note: NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite are 36-5 L/5 seasons and a perfect 4-0 this season.

The Thunder are 9-1 SU with same season revenge for a loss vs the Wolves and a perfect 6-0 SUATS when they have a win percentage of .450 or better. 

The Thunder are 18-0 ATS /SU as a home 8+ favorite off a game as a favorite after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses and it is before the All-Star break with every win coming by DDs.

The Timberwolves are 0-12-1 ATS 0-13 SU as a 8+ dog off a win facing an opponent averaging more than 12 offensive rebounds.

Play on Oklahoma  City to cover 

Iowa State is off a huge win vs Kansas last time out, and will now be in a letdown situation here at Baylor tonight.  Iowa State is not a very physical team,which will be an issue in a bad matchup for them here.Quote:Prohm said the Bears "bring a lot of challenges with their physicality and their size upfront, tremendous rebounding team, that's going to be a huge key to the game."END QUOTE.   With that said, Im betting Baylor a side that is holding opponents to 39.6 percent from the field, including 32 percent from 3-point range behind a 4 guard scheme and a complimentary bevy of big men will give the Cyclones fits here . 

IOWA ST is 5-17 ATS L/22 as a road favorite of 3 points or less or pick. Baylor is 12-2 SU L/14 overall in this series and 2-0 SU L/2 here at home vs Iowa St.

Play on Baylor to cover 

After setting a school record with 15 MAAC wins a season ago, this year's Griffs kept the winning ways going in conference play last weekend with road wins at Marist and Siena. tonight Im betting the Griffs close out their non conference schedule with another win vs Brown tonight . Note:CANISIUS is 12-2 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons and is 13-4 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Canisius to cover 

My matchup stats tell me these teams are pretty evenly matched MAC opponents and Im betting we have value on this line with a underdog that had won 10 straight times prior to a loss vs Ball State last time out and that has revenge on board for a loss they suffered last season to Buffalo that kept them out of post season play. Toldeo has experience with 4 of their 7 top guys back from last year, and must not be underestimated to keep this game close and maybe..... just maybe pull off an upset. 

CBB underdog (TOLEDO) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite are 112-61 ATS L/22 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Toledo to cover 

The Lakers like other teams Super Star LeBron James has been on in the recent past get used to him controlling their games, and when their super star quarter back is out, those teams tank. James has missed 21 games over the last few seasons , and when he's out they have proven to be bad bets going  3-18 SUATS . The Lakers proved this correct when they got completely steam rolled by Minnesota yesterday afternoon in a road game. Now on tired legs they go against a Dallas team that plays their best hoops at home, as is evident by a 15-3 record  as hosts that has seen them win 13 of their last 14  here at American Airlines Center. With the Cavs having revenge on board for a DD loss the last time these teams played back in LA 114-103  on Nov 30 they look like solid bets as single digit home favs. Note:DALLAS is 8-1 ATS  in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season and from a league wide trend NBA teams favs of  3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses , are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% Conversion rate for bettors.Dallas is also 9-1 SU /8-2 ATS L/10 as a host in this series.

The Lakers are 0-11-1 ATS/ 0-12 SU off a loss as a dog when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road and it is before the All-Star break with the average margin of fefeat coming by 16.3 ppg. 

LA LAKERS are 5-15 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.DALLAS is 12-4 ATS in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Houston had a six-game winning streak come to an  abrupt end  this past Saturday as they  lost for just the second time in 11 tilts last time out vs Portland. Meanwhile, Denver is off a DD 123-110 victory at home at the Pepsi Center last time out,  vs Charlotte. Note: DENVER is 9-19 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons and is 2-10 ATS after a combined score of 225 points or more this season and is 7-20 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is also 8-18 ATS  against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons and are at a disadvantage vs a Houston team that plays their best ball at home as is evident by a 13-5 and 12-6 record as hosts.

The Rockets took out the Nuggets with  a 109-99 win at Denver on Nov. 13 that extended Houston's winning streak in the series to eight straight. Im betting on it being 9 after tonight. 

The Rockets are 12-0 ATS SU/ATS as a favorite off a road game in which their points decreased by at least 25 from the game before and it is before the All-Star break and   are 12-0 SU/ATS  facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (DENVER) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 44-216 L/22 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 

 These teams are both trending upward on a points per game chart that I am currently using. Everything points to this being a higher scoring affairs than the lines makers  are anticipating.  Yes, they are lower paced teams, but their offensive efficiency and point conversion rates are above normal.  Im projecting Brooklyn scores 105 + points while Bostons score 114 + points. BROOKLYN is 19-3 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 237.5 ppg scored. BOSTON is 16-0 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 231.6 ppg scored.

Brooklyns L/5 games has seen a combined average of 230.6 ppg scored and in division games has seem a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Boston in their L/5 games has seen a combined average  222 ppg scored and on the season allowed an average of 105+ ppg at home and in division tits have seen a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 13-4 OVER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 223.6 ppg scored. BOSTON is 20-7 OVER  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 221.9 ppg scored. 

BROOKLYN is 18-7 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.8 ppg scored in those tilts.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Raptors looked very good and worked very hard in a win vs the Milwaukee Bucks last night on the road and notched a impressive win. However, after playing that kind of gruelling physical affair  on the road  and now on tired legs Im betting they will have a problem performing at an optimal level against vs the most under rated team in the NBA ( Indiana Pacers) according to my power rankings assessment charts. It must also be noted that Raptors Kawhi Leonard played 38 minutes last night, and after suffering through numerous injuries, in his career Im sure the coaching staff will be careful with his minutes tonight, and that also gives us an edge with the Pacers. In the most recent meeting in this series here in Toronto back on Dec 19 the Raps were fortunate to get the victory in a 99-96 smash mouth affair, and tonight look for the fresher legs of the visitor and their scorching defence ranked No.1 in points allowed to be the difference maker here. Also from a SRS head to head matchup scenario that tells us the Raptors are ranked 5th with a 4.80 numerical rating, and the Pacers 6th ranking 4.60 , we have a pickem situation, even with home court advantage thrown in. Add to that a fatigue factor ratio , and we have a upset situation edge. Nothings a sure bet , but I like the edge we have here getting points with this live dog. Note: SRS Is a Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Pacers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Play on Indiana to cover .

Indiana to cover 

Washington is just 4-17 SU on the road this season, dropping eight consecutive games away from Capital One Arena and while I  rarely ever  lay DDs with any team, the odd circumstance offers up value. With that said, this  tilt here in Oklahoma City is one of them.  The Wizards  continued road futility, and a banged up lineup makes them fade material even on a DD line. Note: The visitors are  playing without key cog John Wall ( out for season) arguably the teams best player and are also saddled with the  absence of power forward Markieff Morris who is also out with an injury. Streaky super star Westbrook broke out with a 32 point performance last time out, and will be licking his chops with anticipation here . 

Oklahoma City matches up very well vs the Wizards as was evident in a 134-111 beatdown win by the Thunder as road 3.5 point road dogs on Dec 11 of this season.

Thunder are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southeast.Wizards are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Oklahoma City.

WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season Opp. 123.2  Wizards 106.6  for a consistent DD trend presenting itself and is is 3-11 ATS overall as a road underdog this season with the average point differential margin clicking in at 13.5 ppg. 

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a road win are just 1-25 SU L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate with the average margin of defeat coming by 11.1 ppg. 

Play on Oklahoma City  to cover 

South Dakota State is 11-6 overall and 1-1 in Summit League play. The preseason favorites, SDSU has opened league play with three-straight games on the road, concluding with Sunday's contest, and will be on tired legs here vs South Dakota, 7-8 on the season and 1-1 in Summit League play, and fresh off a win vs Denver.

Instate rivals playing different styles of basketball do battle here in a game I have pegged to be closely contested. When tilts like this go down.... records go out the window. 



S DAKOTA is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.S DAKOTA is 12-1 ATS in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997. S DAKOTA is 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.S DAKOTA is 14-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997.S DAKOTA is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.

CBB road team (S DAKOTA ST) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team (76 or better PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) are 53-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on South Dakota to cover

The Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings have in the recent past played closely contested affairs, with both meetings this season decided by scores of 130-125 and  117-116 home and away, and Im betting on another hard fought affair here with the getting points our very best option. 

GOLDEN STATE is 3-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.he Warriors are 0-9 L/9 ATS  on the road with rest off a loss as a home favorite in which they had 3+ players with 20+ points . The Kings are 7-0 ATS  and 6-1 SU with less than two days rest off a home game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. The lone loss came to Golden State by a 130-125 loss as 5 point dogs. 

NBA Home teams (SACRAMENTO) - after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent against opponent after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 31-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on Sacramento to cover