West Coast Conference Tournament - First Round - Las Vegas, NV

Pacific enters this tourney game with   momentum from last week's  73-72 win at Pepperdine. That game was an indicator of how well the Tigers matchup against the Wave, thus getting my support in this the their opener in this conference tourney. 

PACIFIC is 12-4 ATS  versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

PEPPERDINE is 4-12 ATS  versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45% or better over the last 2 seasons. 

Pacific has won 6 of the L/7 in this series and get the nod again. 

Play on Pacific to cover 

The Milwaukee Bucks after a 7 game win streak have endured 2 straight losses including a shocking one to the Phoenix Suns last time out  and will now be ready to bounce back here in a big way at home after 3 days rest.The Bucks are 13-2 ATS /14-1 SU with rest off a loss. The Bucks are 12-0 ATS  at home when their last four games are WWLL.MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS off a upset loss as a favorite this season.  Bucks are also  6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central and  are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.

Meanwhile, the Pacers are off a hard fought win vs Chicago last time out but  are 0-12 ATS  as a road dog with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite after a game that was tied 5+ times.  Back in February the Bucks went into Indiana and beat the Pacers by a 106-97 count and proved they matchup well vs Indiana, and get the nod again laying DDs here. Note: The Pacers are 0-10 ATS/SU on the road with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Pacers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games. 

NBA Favorites (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 30-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Milwaukee to romp

Indiana has one chance to stay competitive vs an explosive Milwaukee team here on the road and that is via a conservative style of defensive play. Thats what Im betting they try to implement , which will result in a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers are expecting. ( More analysis to come thank you for your patience)

INDIANA is 25-9 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 201.3 ppg scored.INDIANA is 17-5 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 211,2 ppg scored. INDIANA is 13-4 UNDER  in March games over the last 2  seasons with a combined average of 200.8 ppg. McMillan is 40-19 UNDER  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game as the coach of INDIANA with a combined average score of 210.9 ppg scored. The Pacers are 1-13 UNDER L/13 as a road dog after they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 195.6 ppg scored.

The Bucks are 1-13 UNDER L/14 as a favorite off a game as a favorite in which they shot under 40% from the field with a combined average of 184.8 ppg going on the board.The Bucks are 2-15-1 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite after a game that was tied 5+ times ( which happened vs Phoenix last time out) with the combined average score of those games clicking in at 189.8 ppg.

Play UNDER 

Metro Atlantic Conference Tournament - First Round - Albany, NY

The last time these teams played back in late Feb they combined for a 129 points, but here with a lot more to play for Im betting this matchup will not be played as loosely as that tilt and more physical play will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total. 

FAIRFIELD is 7-1 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season after 15+games this season with a combined average of 115.5 ppg. 
MANHATTAN is 9-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games this season with a combined average score of 114.9 ppg scored. MANHATTAN is 10-0 UNDER in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons. MANHATTAN is 9-0 UNDER in all tournament games over the last 2 season


Neutral court teams against the total (MANHATTAN) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record. are 31-6 UNDER L/22 season for a 84% conversion rate for bettors on the under.


Manhattan /Fairfield UNDER

These teams have. along history of playing low scoring defensive affairs with 10 of the L/11 games going under the set total with the L/5 here in Central Florida all going under the set Total. Considering both teams have shut down defences there is no reason to believe that this game will also be fairly low scoring and stay under the number. 

UCF is 8-1 UNDER  versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 111.3 ppg scored.UCF is 15-4 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  80% or better ) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 124.1 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 15-4 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. CINCINNATI is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42%  or less after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 120.3 ppg scored. 

CBB Road teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (CINCINNATI) - after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 34-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

610 Central Florida /Cincinnati UNDER

In Liberty's first visit to UNF Arena, North Florida shot 60 percent from the field and rallied from 13 points down in the second half to earn the 75-70 victory against the ASUN leading Flames. while there is a high probability of a reversion to the mean, they are still more than capable of hanging tough here as they look for their fourth straight road victory.North Florida comes into Thursday's clash having won seven straight including handing the Flames their lone loss of the last nine games. This semi final conference tourney game is all about momentum, and the Ospreys have all kinds of positive mojo   happening at the moment and Im betting wont go down without a big time fight and subsequent cover. Look for the Ospreys explosive 3 point shooting to keep us in this game. 

Play on North Florida to cover 

Fresno State and San Diego State are likely playing for the No. 3 seed in next week’s Mountain West Conference men’s basketball tournament when they meet Wednesday night in San Diego.

The last time these teams met San Diego State led by 20 points in the first half of the January meeting at the Save Mart Center and as the teams went into a timeout an Aztecs player walking past the Bulldogs bench loudly said, ‘‘This game is in the bag.” Well that ignited the Bulldogs, and they came back for a 66-62 win. 

The Aztecs have won 14 consecutive Mountain West home games. The last loss: Jan. 17, 2018, to Fresno State and I wont be surprised if this streak ends tonight against a very tough confident Fresno State group that has won its last four conference games and five of the last six when coming off a bye.

  FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.FRESNO ST is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.FRESNO ST is 17-4 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons.

Fresno State has won and covered the last two meetings here vs San Diego State.

819 Fresno State  to cover 

Both these teams have struggled this season, but the Pokes matchup well vs the Spartans and took the first meeting of the season 59-46 in Laramie on Jan. 23. The Pokes have won seven-straight in the series vs San Jose dating back to March 2, 2016 and Im betting nothing changes tonight. 

SAN JOSE ST is 0-7 ATS versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Wyoming to cover

These teams have absolutely nothing to play for other than stacking up personal stats, and Im betting it will be played wide open and loose as a result of this games lack of importance. When these played back in December of this season they combined for 238 points and a similar type output is not out of the question in this spot according to my projections. 

NYK ranks 27th in the league in defensive rating, while Phoenix ranks 29th in defensive rating. 

The Knicks are 13-0-1 OU  as a dog with rest off a loss in a road game when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points with the combined average score of those tilts clicking in at 239.1 ppg. ( NYK has allowed 125,115,128 points in their L3 games)

Play OVER 

The Jazz, one of the hottest teams won the first meeting this season in New Orleans  vs the Pelicans 132-111 on Oct. 27 and get the nod again here in this spot. I know Utah lost late time out ending a 4 game losing streak, but they have proven themselves proficient in the bounce back roll going 17-8 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. 

UTAH is 11-2 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The Utah Jazz are 20-0 ATS/SU as a road favorite of two-plus points with less than two days rest when they are off a game as a favorite in which they had a baskets-assisted-percentage at least 10 points higher than  their opponent and do not play tomorrow with every win coming by 4 point or more. The L/19 games under these peremiters have all come by 5 points or more. 

Play on Utah to cover

San Antonio is playing much better ball of late winning 3 straight, but Atlanta are no pushovers, and are up-trending especially for bettors as is evident by cashing 6 of their L/7 for their supporters. Im betting on the home dog Hawks to keep the money train rolling for their backers again tonight.

SAN ANTONIO is 17-30 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.SAN ANTONIO is 7-18 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons and is 30-43 ATS   in road games over the last 2 seasons.

The Hawks are 18-4-1 ATS L/23 as a dog after they allowed their opponent to exceed their season-to-date shooting percentage by 10 points.The Spurs are 1-11-1 ATS ( on the road off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

 Detroit enters this game having won 9 of their L/11 games and are up trending and still in the hunt for. play off spot.  Tonight against a Minnesota team on tired legs playing their 4th road game in their L/5 trips to the hardwood and  off playing last night at home win to the Thunder Im betting the Pistons have an advantage.  Note: The Timberwolves are 0-14-2 ATS L/16 on the road off a game as a favorite in which they shot over 50% from the field which was the case last night. 

 MINNESOTA is 17-31 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.  DETROIT is 14-4 ATS in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. 

The Pistons are 22-5 ATS /23-4 SU  as a favorite off a game as a dog after a game that was tied 5+ times which was the case in an impressive win vs Toronto last time out.The Pistons are 7-0 ATS/SU L/7 as a home favorite with more than one day of rest off a win.

Detroit is 7-0 SU/ATS in the last seven meetings against Minnesota.

Play on Detroit to cover 

The Hornets won both meetings vs visiting Miami this season, back in October. They won 113-112 in Miami and 125-113 at home and matchup well from a system vs system players vs players system I use at this point in the season.

MIAMI is 2-10 ATS  vs. division opponents this season. CHARLOTTE is 16-5 ATS  in home games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

The Hornets are 11-0 ATS /SU as a home favorite with rest off a loss as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 60-114 ATS L/22 seasons for a  go against 66% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. 

Play . on Charlotte to cover 

St. Bonaventure enters this game on a red hot 6 game win streak against Davidson in a matchup of the second (Davidson) and third place teams in the Atlantic 10. The Bonnies remain in the hunt  for a double bye in the A-10 Tournament and Im betting they hang in there with their powerful opponent Davidson tonight. Note: The Bonnies have also been hot on the road winning their L/6 road games and Im betting wont be easily disposed in this away tilt. Defence will be key to us grabbing the cheese .

**The Bonnies held seven of their last eight opponents under 61 points and 38 percent shooting.  .

Schmidt is 61-48 ATS  as a road underdog or pick as the coach of ST BONAVENTURE.

Play on St.Bonaventure to cover 

Marshall enters this game playing some very strong hoops at the moment, after three straight wins, and matchup well vs FIU as was evident when they beat them  here at home 105-97 back in January . Both teams are run and gun specialists, and play similar  aggressive offensive hoops, but Im betting home court advantage will be the difference maker.

 MARSHALL is 36-20 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997. 

Play on Marshall to cover 

The Golden Eagles were on the verge of a regular-season conference title  until losing last week at Villanova and at home to Creighton and will be out looking to bounce back vs a desperate bubble team on a 3 game losing streak Seton Hall here tonight.Marquette held off Seton Hall 70-66 on Jan. 12 in Milwaukee and Im betting will get it done again here on the road. Marquette has now won three straight against the Pirates, and four of the last five.

SETON HALL is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.MARQUETTE is 8-2 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

MARQUETTE is 7-1 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.SETON HALL is 1-7 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games this season.

Play on Marquette to cover 

The Raptors enter this game at 2-2 in their L/4, but tonight at full strength with Kawhi Leonard playing Im betting they have an edge, and with newly acquired  will Marc Gasol getting back into form after having to adjust to a new team I expect the young men from TO will be cohesive and explosive. Since Gasol arrived the Raptors have smashed opposing starting lineups by an average +36.9 point diff. This is important since Houstons bench is even weaker than then the 20th ranked bench of the Raps, as the Rockets depend solely on their starting 5 and in particularly  James Harden the one man band. With that said , lets lay the points with the home team.

 TORONTO is 17-4 ATS  after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

NBAHome favorites vs. the money line (TORONTO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 115-30 SU L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Toronto Raptors to cover 

The Portland Blazers will play their 7th straight road game tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies on tired legs. Meanwhile, Memphis embarrassed after blowing a 13 point lead vs Oklahoma City last time out with 6 and 1/2 minutes left in the game, and losing 99-95 will be out hell bent on getting redemption and will be ready to play. Believe me pros don' t like to be embarrassed and considering the Grizzlies have looked competitive of late its not a stretch , to bet them getting points tonight in a advantageous situation. 

The Grizzlies are 22-2 ATS L/24 as a dog with less than two days rest after they held their opponent under their season-to-date shooting percentage by 10 points.

The Trailblazers are 0-6 ATS L/6 as a favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. 

Play on Memphis to cover

Purdue despite of an incredible season  are just 4-2 conference road games with 2 OT wins , a blowout loss at Michigan State , a DD beatdown at Maryland and a 2 point win at Nebraska, and 2 point win at Indiana. Now we get a decent home dog line with Minnesota at home , which has underestimated value attached to it, because of how well they played the Boilermakers in West  Lafayette earlier this season, staying close until the last part of the game (73-63). Look for Purdues inability to play disciplined ball to give Minnesota a chance at covering as they are one of the best teams in the conference for getting chances at the charity stripe. The Gophers surprised the Northwestern Wildcats last time out as underdogs and have momentum entering this home game. Note: MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS  in home games off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog .

PURDUE is 8-18 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.PURDUE is 3-11 ATS in road games after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Indiana  has won its first three meetings this season against the Bulls, however, each of those contests  were hard fought affairs with the games being decided by single digits. Meanwhile, In a recent hard-fought back and forth  loss to the Orlando Magic by a 117-112 count the Pacers  their 3rd loss in 4 games they looked out of sorts and were constantly arguing with the officials. Their lack of concentration got them in trouble and could easily see them humbled here  again tonight .Note: The Pacers are 1-14 ATS L/15 as a home favorite with rest after a game as a home favorite in which a game that was tied 5+ times which qualifies after the battle they had with the Magic in their last home game. I know the Bulls might not inspire bettors, but they are playing alot better of late  winning 5 of their L/7 overall and  in revenge mode and will be motivated here to upend their opponents. The Bulls are 9-0 ATS  as a road dog after playing as a home favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

Indiana is 1-9 ATS L/10 as a fav of 5 points or more vs a side with triple revenge. 

CHICAGO is 22-10 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites (INDIANA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, on Tuesday nights are 20-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Chicago to cover 

Indiana enters this game ranked 2nd in both ppg allowed and defensive efficiency and 24th in pace. On offence they rank 22nd , which makes it obvious to me that they base all their successes and failures on their ability to play a strong transitional game that focuses on top tier defensive play. The Pacers have gotten away from that lately and have coincindetly lost 3 of their L/4, and Im betting a more concerted defensive effort here in an attempt to right tehir ship. Meanwhile, the visiting Chicago Bulls rank 28th in offense , behind the 21st ranked pace,  and despite of back to back freewheeling affairs against a no defense allowed  Atlanta team in their last two outings, should now revert back to their norm here in a division game I have pegged to be competitive .  

The Pacers are 2-20-1 UNDER as a home 8+ favorite with rest off a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game and have gone under12 straight times overall under these perimeters with the average combined score of the 23 games clicking in at 181.5 ppg . 

The Bulls are 3-21-1 L/25 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range with the combined average of 187 ppg scored. 

INDIANA is 16-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season and is 15-2 UNDER in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 199 ppg going on the score board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (INDIANA) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or better) against an average shooting team (43.5-45.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 27-6 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the bind. 

Play UNDER 

 Kent State visits Miami O in a key  Mid-American Conference tilt this Tuesday night.  Kent State enters this game with the  No. 3 seed and the RedHawks are in fourth and looking for a bye. Thus losing this game is not an option and  they the Hawks will be primed to perform here tonight.   Note:  Miami O is 10-1 ATS L/11 in this series and  5-0  ATS L/5 as hosts.  The Redhawks are also 15-2 SU L/17 season in home game finales  and get the nod to get us the victory and cover here tonight. 

Senderoff is 0-6 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more as the coach of KENT ST .KENT ST is 1-8 ATS  after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.MIAMI OHIO is 8-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog this season. 

Play on Miami (O) to cover 

Both these teams have struggled this season at times, but both are current 2 game win streaks, and in a game that should be closer to a pickem getting points with a one possession spread makes for a value situation. Rhode Island has recorded 24 steals over its last two games, getting nine at Dayton Friday night and a season-high 15 steals in its win over George Washington nd Im betting their ability to disrupt the Hawks play will be the difference maker.

ST JOSEPHS is 0-7 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season and s 0-6 ATS  in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Rhode Island to cover 

NYK HC Fizdale is 13-3 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. Im betting he once again implement a more methodical game plan here against a Kings side that loves to run and gun! 

SACRAMENTO is 24-10 UNDER as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207.9 ppg. SACRAMENTO is 54-30 UNDER when the total is 220 to 230 with a combined average of 219.1 ppg.

NYK HC Fizdale is 13-3 UNDER  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. 

SACRAMENTO is 15-6 UNDER in non-conference games this season with a combined avrage fo 223.3 ppg going on the board.

NEW YORK is 11-3 UNDER versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or less assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with . combined average of 211.4  ppg going on the board .

The Kings are 0-14 on the UNDER as a rested favorite when they are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.50 with a combined average of 203.6 ppg scored.

The Knicks are 0-10-1 OU  on the road with less than two days rest off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc with at least 10 attempts with a combined average of 189 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in March game are 183-111 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Horned Frogs after starting their season 12 -1 really struggled down the stretch and now  will be playing for their NCAA Tournament lives against K-State . This TCU team when playing their best can compete with ay team in this conference including KState, as wins vs.  Texas, Baylor, and a sweep of Iowa State would indicate. Im betting on the Frogs  leaving everything on the floor here tonight and getting us the cover.

TCU is 7-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game this season.

CBB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (TCU) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games are 32-8 straight up L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games are also 32-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TCU to cover 

The Spurs have won 2 straight and Denver has lost two straight at home as they enter this game in Texas tonight. With the Spurs up trending and in revenge mode for a loss to the Nuggets back on Nov 28 in Mile High City Im betting the Spurs will be reved up for revenge . Note: The Spurs The San Antonio Spurs are 17-0 SUATS at home with conference revenge.

The Spurs are 15-0-1 ATS /16-0 SU with rest off a 10+ win in a home game when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.

DENVER is 2-10 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46%or more  of their shots this season.

Spurs have won 5 straight at home in this series over the L/3 seasons.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

All my college Hoops selections both totals and sides are based on a extensive data base of current stats past trends, and  overall head to head team system and player vs player  analysis as well as coaching tendencies when certain circumstances and matchup situations arise. No stone has been left unturned in the process of delivering winners to my clients, including injury reports, line moves and travel situations associated with both fatigue factors and freshness. 

The Owls are last in the ASUN averaging 63.2 PPG, with my projections estimating a near 10 point drop off vs Lipscomb. The Owls dont have any chance here of competing against this explosive opponent unless they slow this tilt down to a crawl which Im betting effects the combined score to the low side of he offered number. 

Play on the UNDER 

The host team Brooklyn in this matchup  is struggling overall and are allowing 121.7 points and 49.3 percent shooting during a recent 3 game run. Meanwhile, the visiting  Mavericks' are  allowing 114.9 points on 47.2 percent shooting in the last seven games overall. Both sides are exhibiting poor defensive abilities, and Im betting on this trend continuing here this evening.

The Mavericks are 9-0 OVER L/9 on the road off a loss in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half with the combined average score of 228.1 ppg scored. 

 The Nets are 9-0 OVER L/9 with rest after they had less than 40% of the total rebounds  with the combined score of 234.3 ppg.

Play OVER 

Jim Boehims 5 returning starters will  primed  to go out on a high note tonight in their final regular season home game  vs the Cavaliers . I know Virginia is a behemoth opponent, but this Orange hoops program has been tough in their final home games of the campaign in the recent past cashing 12 of their L/15 opportunities, and are bankroll expanding 13-6 ATS this season vs conference opposition and must not be underestimated as home underdogs. 

SYRACUSE is 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.SYRACUSE is 9-1 ATS in home games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.SYRACUSE is 7-0 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Play on Syracuse to cover 

North Florida has alot of experience, with all the starters averaging DD point outputs. As  group the Ospreys have also played alot of minutes together this season, and are currently entering this tournament on a 6 games winning streak, and once again look like a viable team to back vs a  North Alabama team that they manhandled in two meetings. With that said, look for a Ospreys side that ranks top 20 nationally in  attempted treys, to come out  here and lay down beatdown in their tourney opener .

Play on North Florida to cover 

I expect a young athletic Magic frontline that includes Aaron Gordon (25), Jonathan Isaac (21) and Nikola Vucevic (28) to come at the last place ranked D in the league ,Cleveland with both barrels loaded as they continue to push behind the momentum of a big road win last night in Indiana as underdogs. I expect for Cleveland to fire back with some explosive fireworks of their own in chase mode and give a score that eclipses this number. 

Note: Orlando has 18 underdog wins this season, and the average combined score of their followup tilt clicks in at 225.1 ppg.

The Magic are 11-0 OVER off a win as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with a combined average of 230 ppg going on the board which was the case last night in their wn vs Indiana.The Magic are 13-1 OVER  off a win as a dog with a combined average of 228.3 ppg scored.

NBA team (CLEVELAND) - off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival, a struggling  team (25% or less wins) playing a team with a losing record are 45-19 OVER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Yellow Jackets, despite of struggling have been decent at home going 10-7 SU as hosts this season , and actually matchup well vs visiting Boston College side that is   1-7 on the road this season in conference play.   The Ramblinwreck rank No. 14 in the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage at 39.3% while the Golden Eagles rank 81st ranked Defensive Field Goal Percentage at 41.9 %. Look for the home team to finally capture a win in their home finale this Sunday night in a tilt that will mark the final regular-season home game for three Georgia Tech seniors – Brandon Alston, Abdoulaye Gueye and Sylvester Ogbonda.

Note: GTs HC Pastner is 11-2 ATS in home games in March games in all games he has coached since 1997. 

 TECH is 8-0 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

TECH is 6-2 L/8 at home in this series.

Play on Georgia Tech to cover 

Boston had been struggling of late , but snapped a 4 game losing streak with a win vs Washington last time out, and now have some momentum entering this game against  the Houston Rockets side that has lost 19 of their 30 road games this season. I know alot of pundits don't feel confident in the Celtics in their current form , but this is still a quality team overall, and will be primed to play there very best vs a top tier opposition in front of their own fans where they are 24-9 SU this season. 

BOSTON is 8-0 ATS  after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 10-2 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. 

The Celtics are 13-0 ATS /SU as a favorite with rest off a 10+ win in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throw.

 Houston is 4-15 ATS  after scoring 120 points or more this season as was the case in a 121-118 come from behind win vs Miami last time out in Texas.  he Rockets are 0-12 ATS/1-11 SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s. The Rockets are 0-9 ATS /0-9 SU when the line is within 3 of pick with more than one day of rest facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 115-28 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (HOUSTON) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, second half of the season are 6-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston Celtics to cover 

The up-trending New York Knicks a team that has won 3 of their L/5 games , enters a game vs a Clippers team that they actually matchup well against as they  go for a season sweep of Los Angeles when they visit the Clippers for a tilt on Sunday afternoon. The Clippers are coming off a big win at Sacramento as they chase  a playoff spot in the Western Conference, and Im betting they will be in a natural letdown spot here vs the under valued Knicks. 

The Knicks are 14-1-1 ATS  with more than one day of rest after a game as a home favorite in which a game with 8+ lead change.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Both Louisville and Notre Dame has looked vulnerable of late, and neither is playing very good hoops. Im betting on this being a close tilt between two teams that are not flowing, with the key coming via difference maker coming at the charity stripe as  Notre Dame very rarely fouls, which is extremely important for a Louisville team scoring 21.8 percent of its points off free throws (33rd in the nation). HC Brey is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts after 15+ games as the coach of NOTRE DAME with the average point diff clicking in at  0.5 ppg.( 1/2 point)

CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (NOTRE DAME) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 112-66 ATS L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate on the blind.

Play on Notre Dame to cover 

St. John's (20-9, 8-8 BIG EAST) enters its final road trip of the regular season looking to avenge a loss in its home finale to Xavier at Carnesecca Arena and Im betting they do it here this afternoon in Depaul. Note: ST JOHNS is 11-0 ATS L/11  in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite . 

Playing without the services of Shamorie Ponds on Jan. 12, the Johnnies dropped a 79-71 decision to DePaul. It was a bad game for the St.Johns and now with revenge on board Im betting they will be primed and motivated  for payback vs a side  that has dropped seven of their last nine and have lost four in a row heading into Sunday's meeting with the Red Storm.

 DEPAUL is 0-8 ATS  vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more  of their attempts this season.DEPAUL is 3-11 ATS  versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. 

Play on St.Johns to cover 

Milwaukee has an NBA-best 48-14 record and have won 13 of their L/14 overall and 9 straight road games SU. Meanwhile, their hosts  the Jazz have won three straight games and 17 of their last 23 after recording a 111-104 road win over the Denver Nuggets on Thursday. The Jazz put out a high level of energy in that game and may have difficulties replicating the same kind of effort vs the Milwaukee Bucks tonight in an emotional let down situation.Note: 

Snyder is 6-17 ATS  in home games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread as the coach of UTAH.

The Bucks are 10-0 ATS /SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a 10+ win as a favorite in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint .

The Jazz are 1-11 ATS /0-12 SU L/12 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.

I know the Bucks have played a heavy road schedule of late but they are a well conditioned team, that is a bankroll expanding 10-1 ATS  when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. MILWAUKEE is also 11-3 ATS  in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season and are very dangerous underdogs in this spot vs a team they beat by 12 points back in January. A 16+ point turnaround , while not being out of the question, has  a fairly high probability negative outcome making getting points with the elite road dog a value situation. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

***Thunder key cog Paul George is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs San Antonio ( Shoulder ) and that is key here for me backing the Spurs as short home chalk. Also the Spurs were defeated by the Thunder on Jan 12 of this season by a 122-111 count and now the Spurs are revenge minded and will be motivated to get payback. Note:The San Antonio Spurs are 17-0 SUATS at home with conference revenge and get my support in a redemption effort vs a short handed side. 

The Spurs are also 15-0 SU/ATS with rest off a 10+ win in a home game when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road. ( They beat Motown 105-93 last time out)

The Thunder are 0-9 ATS /SU as a favorite off a loss in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 better than their season-to-date average failing to cover by more than 13 ppg. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - off a home win by 10 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team and are 38-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

Im betting on Baylor really giving 16th-ranked Kansas State (21-7, 11-4) a run for their money here tonight. The Bears (19-9, 10-5) have won three straight down-to-the-wire games decided by a total of 12 points .Since losing six of their first nine games decided by single digits, the Bears are 6-1 in those games over the last 6 ½ weeks and in the Bears' only single-digit loss over the last 6 ½ weeks, they gave up a seven-point second-half lead in a 70-63 loss at home to K-State.  The bears stayed alive for its first conference championship in 69 years on Wednesday, when the Bears rallied from a 19-point second-half deficit to defeat the Texas Longhorns, 84-83, in overtime and enter this game with a full head of steam. 

Drew is 7-0 ATS  after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of BAYLOR.  

Play on Baylor to cover 

The Magic are coming off Thursday's come-from-behind 103-96 home victory vs defending NBA champion Golden State. The Magic also beat Eastern power house Toronto, while losing to Chicago and the New York Knicks, two of the worst teams in the league. Needless to say their Magic spells won't be catching the Pacers by surprise, as the home team will be wide awake here knowing they can't take the night off , like the Raptors and Warriors probably did. The Pacers also have revenge eon board for a 107-100 loss to Orlando the last time they visited the Magic kingdom this season and will be primed for payback. Note: The Pacers are 14-0 ATS /SU as a favorite with less than two days rest when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road. 

INDIANA is 7-0 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season. Indiana has won 4 straight meetings at home in this series.

INDIANA is 31-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.

 Magic are 0-12 ATS/SU with rest after their opponent shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts which was the case vs Golden State.

NBA Favorites (INDIANA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 193-125 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind .

Play on Indiana to cover 

E.Kentucky has played their best hoops at home this season going 9-4 SU. Meanwhile, Morehead State is just 4-12 on the road this season, and have the edge here according to my projections by 5 points or more making this a viable line to buy into. 

CBB Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (MOREHEAD ST) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45-47.5%), after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 60-4 SU L/22 seasons with the average point differential clicking in at 10.8 ppg.

Play on on E.Kentucky to cover 

 The Tribe has won 10 of the last 12 meetings vs. JMU and get the nod again as thy keep they look to keep momentum alive entering the conference tourney .The Tribe key to success todayIm betting  will center around their  much improved defensive play in CAA as opposed to their non conference schedule. W&M ranks second in defensive efficiency (104.9) in league games and has held six opponents to a point or less per possession. 

JAMES MADISON is 1-8 ATS ( in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45% or more  after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. JAMES MADISON is 4-11 ATS  versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.

CBB home team (JAMES MADISON) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 38-69 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on William Mary to cover 

TCU needs this game badly, and also have revenge on board for a ugly loss in Lubbock earlier this season. With this being seniors night Im betting we see the Horned Frogs come out here like their hair is on fire and to leave everything on the court. I know Texas Tech is looking like Big 12 champion candidates this season, but overall from a long term perspective the Raiders mens hoops program have only covered 10 of their L/32 as road chalk and have looked vulnerable away from home this season. I know TCU has struggled of late, after a quick start to their season, but this is still a fine team that deserves our respect as home dogs. TCU is 6-0 ATS in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.

TCU is 11-3 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

 CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (TEXAS TECH) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game are 47-70 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on TCU to cover 

 Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans, are now starting to make the noise I expected when I started to put  my  CBB power rankings together earlier this season. As the NCAA tourney gets closer you can bet this team will be merciless as they look for the possible No.1 seed.. Today a combination of motivation and revenge will be at play as the Spartans look for redemption for a 79-75 loss at home last month to this same Hoosiers team. I know we have to lay a decent amount of points here with the visiting Spartans, but the Hoosiers are in a tail spin  having lost  12 of their last 14 games,  and  are an ugly 4-9 SU at home this season and despite of beating Wisconsin in OT last time out, just don't matchup well vs this version of the Spartans and could easily get smashed by DDs here. Michigan State is 10-4 ATS with revenge in this series and gets the nodes road favs. MICHIGAN ST is 10-1 ATS  after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this seasonMICHIGAN ST is 11-2 ATS  versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less this season.MICHIGAN ST is 15-4 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.MICHIGAN ST is 10-1 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. 

Play on Michigan State to cover 

The NC State  (20-8, 8-7 ACC) takes on 18th-ranked Florida State (22-6, 10-5 ACC). The Pack have won 4 of their L/5 games, and are playing a top tier brand of basketball that actually matches up well vs the Seminoles. Thanks to Florida States impressive ranking and their overall play over the last month, lines are creeping up and now I see a value line to bet into with viable opponent on board. HC Hamilton is 20-47 ATS  after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games as the coach of FLORIDA ST.  

Both these teams have strong benches and Im betting this will be a really battle today making getting points a viable opportunity. 

Kevin Keatts teams have a record of 27-13 SU (.675) in regular season games in the months of February and March.

617 North Carolina State to cover 

Portland is on a 5 game win streak that started with a DD shellacking of Golden State and than continued with 4 straight road wins, vs Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Boston. Its been a long east coast adventure for the Blazers, but this well conditioned team is  showing little to no sign of exhaustion as they head into this tilt vs the explosive Toronto Raptors. With that said, and with  my own system vs system line, projecting a pickem type affair, Im recommending we take the Blazers plus the points here tonight. Note: PORTLAND is 8-0 ATS  after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and is 12-2 ATS  in March games over the last 2 seasons.The Trailblazers are 17-2 ATS  L/19 on the road with rest off a win as a dog which was the case vs the Celtics last time out. 

Portlands SRS is 4.10 and Torontos is 5.35. Which translates to an adjusted 1 possession tilt according to my use of these numbers.  ( Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average)

The Trailblazers are 12-0 ATS/11-1 SU with rest off a win in which their opponent shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts with the one SU loss coming by 1 point. 

 Trail Blazers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 1 days rest.Trail Blazers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference.The Trail Blazers are 18-4 SU against teams from the Eastern Conference. Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.TORONTO is 11-21 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season.

The Trail Blazers defeated the Raptors 128-122 in Portland on Dec. 14.

Play on Portland to cover 

The Trail Blazers defeated the Raptors 128-122 in Portland on Dec. 14 and Im betting on a similar offensive output by both teams here tonight in TO. The Raptors are averaging more than 115 ppg at home this season, and the Blazers are averaging 113.5 ppg overall on offence. In Toronto's last five game they have seen a combined average score of more than 232 ppg go on the board, while Portland has scored more than 218 ppg on offence in their L/5 , and Im betting they wil force the Raps explosive attack to gear up in response , which will result in a high scoring slugfest according to my projections. 

The Trailblazers are 11-0 OU  L/11 with rest off a win in a road game in which their opponent shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts.

Play OVER 

The last time these teams played  on Feb 23 Brooklyn took out Charlotte as road dogs by a 117-115 count, but  in the past when the Hornets are looking for revenge they have shown a propensity to be more methodical in their approach . Note: The Hornets are 1-20 OV/UNDER  on the road with rest when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 198.8 ppg scored. Also the Hornets are 0-12 OU on the road with rest off a loss when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home which was the case in a loss the Rockets last time out in a ugly defensive display allowing 118 points and blowing a lead. This will make the Hornets even more concentrated on playing better defence here tonight. Meanwhile, the Nets are 0-13 OU with rest off a loss as a favorite in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint which was the situation vs Washington when they allowed 125 points in a back forth event and Im betting they will also be more diligent defensively in rebound mode. The Nets are also  0-13 OU L/13 as a home favorite off a loss in which they shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts with a combined average of 187.5 ppg scored. With both teams needing better defensive play Im betting on a lower scoring output than the linesmakers expect.

CHARLOTTE is 8-0 UNDER  revenging a home loss vs opponent this season with the combined average score of 207.8 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE is 15-3 UNDER  in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.8 ppg going on the board. 

NBA road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHARLOTTE) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in March games are 99-48 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind!

Play UNDER

 Six of the Big Green's eight conference losses this season have been by five points or fewer, and five have been one-possession games and their current 4 game losing streak have all come on the road. Here at home however, Dartmouth has been a tough out winning 8 of 12 home games this season.The Big Green are trying to earn a split of the series for the second straight year having lost a heartbreaker at Princeton two weeks ago, 69-68. The home gets the nod here tonight.

Play on Dartmouth 

Saint Peter's is 8-20 overall, going 5-11 so far in 2018-19 in MAAC action and not matchup that well against anyone in this conference in their current form and were smashed by 19 points to Quinnipiac earlier this season.Quinnipiac is currently 10-6 in MAAC play, sitting in second place in the league standings heading in to the final weekend of the regular season.Quinnipiac has won seven of its last 10 games dating back to Jan. 25. and have momentum entering a tilt vs a team they matchup well against.Quinnipiac is averaging 10.9 3-point field goals per game, which ranks No. 8 nationally and best in the MAAC.According to KenPom, 44.4 percent of the Bobcats offense comes via 3-pointers, which ranks No. 5 nationally.The Bobcats have converted on 10+ 3-pointers in 20 of 27 games this season. cats have converted on 10+ 3-pointers in 20 of 27 games this season.QUINNIPIAC is 8-1 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.QUINNIPIAC is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season.

Play on Quinnipac to cover 

 Penn enters the weekend at 4-6 in Ivy league play and are one game out of fourth place behind Brown and Cornell.Harvard won the first meeting two weeks ago in Philadelphia, hitting a late three-pointer to tie things up in regulation and then pulling away in overtime for a 75-68 win. This game has alot of importance to it for Penn and Im betting they wont go down without a fight here making getting points a legitimate value ticket. It must also be noted that the Quakers—who went OT in three straight games from Feb. 15-22—are 1-4 in OT this season, and are a team that cant be underestimated getting points. 

CBB favorite (HARVARD) - off an upset win as a road underdog, on Friday nights are just 25-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. ( Harvard beat Yale last time out)

Play on Pennsylvania to cover 

The Jazz played a hard fought game against the LA Clippers ;last night and escaped with a narrow win, as they failed to cover as 10 point chalk, and now go into the high altitudes of the  Mile High City on tired legs. This is not a good situation for the Jazz against a team that has been dominant at home this season, winning 27 of their 31 games as hosts. Add to that the Nuggets are flying high right now winning 5 straight including 5 straight SU/ATS in this series at home and in revenge mode for a 114-108 loss at Utah back in late January. With the underlying factors now in place I expect for the Nuggets to hand out a vengeful minded beatdown on the tired Jazz here in the Rockies tonight. 

DENVER is 20-9 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. DENVER is 9-0 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season and is 11-1 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. DENVER is 7-0 ATS  in home games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.DENVER is 20-8 ATS as a home favorite this season. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 181-116 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Denver to cover 

 San Francisco has revenge on board for a road loss they suffered to San Diego last month to the Toreros. The Dons led by 14 points with 41 seconds left in the first half after over powering San Diego for 20 solid minutes.  In the second half, the Toreros  came back as the Dons lost interest for some reason, wiping out a  14 point USF lead, and eventually succumbing by a  67-63 score as they were upset as favs. Now with redemption at hand the  Dons in their own building have been explosive going 23-2 SU  in their last 25 home games dating back to last season and will be primed to lay a beat down on their opponents tonight and not take their foot of the pedal until the end . San Diego has not done well vs teams looking for same season revenge from a betting perspective as they have failed to cover 17 of their L/23 in these situations. 

Note: The Dons are 13-1 SU at home this season with their one loss  coming at the hands of  mighty Gonzaga - a game they actually led with less than three minutes to play.  USF is averaging 80.0 ppg at home and holding opponents to 64.9 ppg.

CBB Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite against opponent off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival are 31-11 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on San Francisco to cover 

Idaho is not a very good team, but this line according to my cross reference data is bloated by one plus possession and should favour Portland State by just 7.5 points. Considering my estimations we have value on the line which gives us an enough edges to take the points with the home dog. Note:Idaho (4-23, 1-15 BSC) is 14-13 all-time against Portland State (13-14, 8-8 BSC), including a 69-53 loss earlier this season. The Vandals has a ugly season but there is hope as redshirt freshman scored a career-high 28 points and tied his career-best with 11 rebounds last time out at Southern Utah and up trending.Verlin is 21-11 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more as the coach of IDAHO.Peery is 5-13 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of PORTLAND ST.

Play on Idaho to cover 

Philadelphia without Joel Embiid in the lineup will be at a disadvantage here tonight vs a Oklahoma City side that will primed to end a 2 game losing streak. The Sixers got clobbered by Portland  in a DD fashion ) 130-115) in the first game that Embiid was out  and then barely scratched by a rutterless New Orleans last time  out by a 111-110 count.  What makes things even worse here, is that they will also be without another front court guy as Boban Marjanovic is also  out.Without its two big men, the 76ers will rely on rookie Jonah Bolden and Amir Johnson in the middle which is not a good situation for this banged up short handed team here against this type of explosive side. 

76ers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City.76ers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.76ers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.76ers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

The Thunder are 13-1 ATS /SU L/14 as a favorite with rest after playing as a road dog when they won 2 straight vs current opponent. 

The Seventysixers are 1-15 ATS/SU as a road dog off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.The Seventysixers are 0-11 ATS 1/10SU  on the road with more than one day of rest off a win as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 

The Golden Stare Warriors took part in a hard fought 126-125 loss last night vs the Miami Heat  and will enter todays game on tired legs. Now Im betting they will revert to a more defensive stance here tonight vs the Orlando Magic, because of their need to correct their  defensive lapses and their inability to go full tilt after playing last night .HC Kerr is 21-9 UNDER  in road games off a road loss as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 214 ppg scored. Meanwhile, Orlando ranks 25th in offensive output and  26th in pace and is usually methodical in their approach and tonight against a dangerous opponent could even be more conservative thus effecting the output of both sides.The Magic are 0-14 UNDER  at home off a loss when they lost at least three straight vs their opponent.( they lost in NY last time out and have lost 5 straight vs the Warriors) None of the 14 games came even close to this total with the highest output coming in 1t 217 combined points with the average combined score clicking in at 200 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

 Mercer has won 3 of their L/4 and are playing a up trending style of hoops of late, and very much look like viable road favs here vs a VMI team that despite of snapping a 8 game losing streak last time out, does not matchup well vs this type of opponent. VMI got clobbered by DDs in these teams first meeting at Mercer, (88-66) and have the guns to take advantage of a nasty VMI defence that ha allowed an average of 81.6 ppg game this season. Mercer has won 5 straight meetings in this series and 2 straight here and deserve our backing in this spot play. 

VMI is 2-9 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at - 17.1 ppg. 

CBB Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (VMI) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after a combined score of 155 points or more 3 straight games are 15-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Mercer to cover 

Louisville has been struggling to score of late, but this is a good opportunity to get some posiitve offensive production as Boston is a team that has allowed 72.1 ppg at home this season. The Cardinal beat the Eagles 80-70 back on the Jan 16 this of this season, and now Im expecting a similar offensive output in the rematch. 

BOSTON COLLEGE is 16-3 OVER  revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons and is 11-1 OVER  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON COLLEGE is 17-4 OVER as a home underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons. 

LOUISVILLE is 6-0 OVER in road games after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

CBB home teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 104-61 OVER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play OVER 

The Celtics got man handled by the Toronto Raptors last night, for their 3rd straight loss ( all on the road) and will now be out looking for redemption  tonight back in Bean-town in front of their own fans where they always seem to play their best hoops , especially against upper tier teams like the Blazers. Note:  BOSTON is 14-3 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.

I know these teams look to be playing at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum, with Portland on a 4 game wins streak, and the Celtics on a 3 game losing streak, but in the NBA , momentum and bad runs can disappear quickly. With Boston feeling a little embarrassed, I expect sulking egotists like Kyre Irving to come out here and to up their performance levels and  increase their  production levels and for the Celtics to get their mojo back at least for now vs a team they have marked for payback for a loss they suffered in Oregon back in November. There is precedent for the Celtics rebounds as they  are 12-0 ATS/SU L/12  as a favorite off a loss when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points( they gave up 126 to Chicago and 118 last night) The Celtics are 12-0 ATS/SU L/12  at home off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game.

Meanwhile, the Trailblazers are 2-19-1 ATS /0-22 SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes which was the case vs Cleveland last time out by a 123-110 count.

BOSTON is 10-1 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a road win are 201-136 ATS  L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Boston to cover 

Chicago is playing some very good hoops of late and despite of having a 3 game win streak end vs Milwaukee last time out . The Bulls in their current form are a  team that has to be respected getting points here today vs a Memphis side that has shown almost no consistency this season other than a penchant for losing. I know tha the bad new Bears have a couple of new cogs in their lineup and are off a win vs the LALA land  Lakers last time out , but Im not sold on them as favorites at more than a pickem against 99%  of the teams in the this league, including the Bulls. Chicago has had success here in Memphis in recent meetings going 2-0 in their L/2 visits and have won the last three overall meetings in this series  and get the nod again to be competitive and cover. Note: CHICAGO is 16-3 ATS  in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons

The Bulls are 18-1 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss as a dog when they won 3 straight vs current opponent.

 Bulls are 16-0 ATS /15-1 SU when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a loss as a dog when they won 3 straight vs current opponent with the one SU loss coming by 1 point. 

The Grizzlies are 1-13-1 ATS 2-13 SU L/15 when the line is within 3 of pick after playing as a home dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with the 2 wins coming by just 1 and 2 points respectively. 

NBA Underdogs (CHICAGO) - an explosive offensive team (102 or more  PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight game are 47-18 ATS L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Chicago to cover 

Ok Texas tech has shown that they are a fine team, there is no arguing that, but after exerting a pile of energy vs Kansas last time out, in a big DD win, Im betting they will be in a natural letdown state and wont be as inspired here today vs a Oklahoma City side that they smashed 78-50 the last time they played Feb 13 at Oklahoma State. Meanwhile, the Cowboys with very little left to play for this season, will be out looking for revenge and will get a chance to be alot more competitive this time around. Note: OKLAHOMA ST is 13-4 ATS L/17 revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more. Considering the circumstances I see value here with taking the points. 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

The Nuggets have been over powering at home winning 26 of 30 games as hosts this season. Also when the Nuggets are in a groove like they are now as is evident by a 4 game win streak they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season. DENVER is also 11-2 ATS  in home games versus teams like Oklahoma City who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Tonight Im betting the Nuggets home court advantage to be golden again as they make it 5 straight wins in this series and more importantly get us the cover.

The Nuggets are 12-0 ATS /SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a win in which their opponent made at least 10 more free throws.The Nuggets are 17-2 ATS /18-1 SU as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite in which they had 6+ double digit scorers.The Nuggets are 10-0 ATS /SU at home with rest off a 10+ win when they won 4 straight vs current opponent. 

The Thunder are 0-9 ATS/SU on the road with more than one day of rest after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game.The Thunder are 1-11 ATS /0-12 SU as a dog with more than one day of rest facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range.

NBA team (DENVER) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) against a good pressure defensive team (16.5  or more TO's) are 90-52 ATS L/22 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Denver to cover 

The Tar Heels  are off a huge 88-72 win last time against Duke and will now be in a letdown spot here against Syracuse tonight and with Florida State up next NC could easily be distracted and deflated all at the same time. From the  Orange s perspective Im betting they will be ready to play here in revenge mode for being knocked out of last seasons ACC tourney by the Tar Heels.. I t must also be noted that HC Boheim's five returning start group is 5-2 ATS on the road this season  while Roy Williams is just 2-5 ATS in his last seven conference games at the Dean Dome.

SYRACUSE is 6-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season. ( Lost to Duke by DDs last time out) Syracuse is also  11-3 ATS  off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and is 10-2 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (N CAROLINA) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, an explosive offensive team (78 or more PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) are 48-89 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Boston Im betting will do what they  do best and that is play top tier defence in an effort to slow the high powered Raptors offence down. This has been Boston modus operandi for a while now when playing a road  against explosive sides like the Raptors. Note: BOSTON is 13-4 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 204.4 ppg scored.

The Celtics own the 5th ranked ppg allowed and and defensive efficiency, along with the a 19th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Raptors own the 7th ranked defensive efficiency and must not be underestimated in their ability to be physical . 

This tilt has the makings of gruelling defensive post season style affair that stays below the offered Total. 

The Raptors are 0-10 UNDER with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes with a combined average of 198 ppg scored.The Raptors are 7-32-1 UNDER  ( as a favorite with rest off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with a combined average of 196.7 ppg scored. 

The Celtics are 0-8-1 UNDER as a road dog off a loss as a favorite in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 188.2 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Magic, with eight wins in their past 10 games are playing top tier basketball at the moment, while the NY Knicks a team that despite of a couple of recent wins, are 5-24 at home this season, and according to my own power rankings and matchup stats do not match up well against this  up trending Magic team. 

Orlando has won four consecutive road games, all by at least 15 points. In the last 10 games, Orlando's average margin of victory is 17.3 points.Orlando has won its last four visits to New York and earlier this season the Magic recorded its widest margin ever in New York in a 115-89 victory.

ORLANDO is 11-1 ATS  in road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 2 seasons and s 11-1 ATS against Atlantic division opponents this season. 

The Magic are 8-0 ATS/SU with less than two days rest with a combined average cover coming by more than 19 ppg. 

The Knicks are 1-16 ATS/SU as a home dog with rest off a game as a dog in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with the average point differential clicking in at -11.5 ppg.

More of the same here, as Orlando cruises to victory and cover.

Recent home wins vs St.Jospehs, Davidson and Rhode Island and their lack of turnovers with the ball   give credence to Mass being a viable home dog here tonight vs visiting Dayton. The Flyers  have been shooting the lights out of late converting at a  48% FB clip or better in 3 straight games  and are off a home win, which has not been a good omen for their betting backers in the past . Note: DAYTON is 0-11 ATS  off a home win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons and is 3-19 ATS  off a home win over the last 2 seasons.

DAYTON is 1-8 ATS  in road games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons.

DAYTON is 15-28 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.

Mass has also performed well vs disciplined teams as this trend would indicate. MASSACHUSETTS is 6-0 ATS  in home games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on Mass to cover 

The third-ranked Blue Devils play at No. 20 Virginia Tech in an ACC game in Blacksburg, Va tonight without their star player Zion Williamson, who is out with a injured knee. They found a way to beat Syracuse in revenge mode last time out, but if the Blue Devils win again, Im betting it will not come so easily vs a side that is 12-2 SU at home this season. Note: HC Williams  in his L/27 games as a home underdog or pick as the coach of VIRGINIA TECH has seen average point differential in those games click in a 2.1 ppg. With Duke playing its third game in seven days on tired legs they will be wobbly chalk here in this spot play. 

Play on Virginia Tech to cover 

Riding a three-game winning streak, Central Michigan will head  go on the road  vs MAC West and in-state rival Eastern Michigan  in a game that favors the road team to cover according to my power rankings numbers. Note:C MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season- C Michigan is 8-0-1 ATS L/9 overall. 

Central Michigan ranks as upper echelon team in four major statistical categories -- No. 3 in free throw attempts (734), No. 9 in free throws made (491), No. 16 in scoring offense (83.2 ppg) and No. 17 in 3-point field goal defense (30.0). Also Over the last three games, opponents are shooting just 18% (8-of-44) versus CMU from 3-point range

The Chippewas won the first meeting this season, 86-82, in McGuirk Arena, snapping a six-game losing streak to EMU.

C MICHIGAN is 13-5 ATS  in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. 

Murphy is 8-20 ATS  versus good foul drawing teams - attempting 25or mroe  free throws/game as the coach of E MICHIGAN. 

CBBRoad teams as an underdog or pick (C MICHIGAN) - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent are 127-73 ATS L/22 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Central Michigan to cover 

Kansas was humbled at Texas Tech this past weekend in a DD 91-62 debacle,  and now will be primed for redemption this week against Kansas State.QUOTE: “We’ll put this one behind us,” Self said. “It’s not going to do us too much good to watch this film. But we’ll get this behind us. We were talking — not putting it behind us because the game was over — but talking about that as early as halftime (with KU down to Tech by 25 points). We would have had to come out in the second half, in the first eight minutes, and cut it to 15 (point deficit), or something like that, to probably have a chance to put some game pressure on them and we didn’t do that. So, therefore, the whole deal was that for the last 12 or 14 minutes we were just trying to get our guys to the finish line so we have rested bodies for Monday: END QUOTE

Add to that the home team has revenge on board for a  74-67 loss at KSU a few  weeks ago and we have a motivated team to back this week.. Kansas is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS the last six meetings when playing with revenge  in the series and are  12-0 L/12 and 23-1 SU in the L/24  meetings here at Allen Field House and are undefeated at home this season overall. Bottom line is this is a must win situation for Bill Selfs troops  if they have any chance at Big 12 Championship .With that said,  Im betting he finds a way to turn the trick and get us the cover in the process.

KU is 786-113 (.874) L/ 64 seasons and 248-13 (.950) in the 16-year Bill Self era here at this venue.

CBB Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (KANSAS ST) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 29-143 SU L/22 season for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors with the point differential of +7.4 ppg.  

Play on Kansas to cover 

Northern Colorado got spanked by Montana earlier this season by a 88-64 count and just dont matchup well vs this red hot home team that has won 10 straight games and the  last 5 meetings in this series the L/3 seasons.During Montana's 10-game winning streak, that started with the above mentioned win vs the Bears the Grizzlies have   held six of their opponents below 70 points. They're shooting better than 50 percent overall and have a plus-13 scoring margin.   Hey I know this is an important game for both teams as they are one and two in the standings, but here on their own home floor the Grizzlies are dominant and Im betting they take care of business again and more importantly get us the cover . 

Play on Montana to cover 

The Pelicans have shown some life recently with wins vs Oklahoma City and the LA Lakers and must now be respected as short home favs vs a Philadelphia team playing without their top player the injured Joel Embiid (knee). Yesterday the Sixers got crushed by the Blazers by DDs, at home, as ,  they struggled on the boards without Embiid; as Portland held a 53-33 rebounding edge that included 19 offensive rebounds.Look for Pelicans star Anthony Davis ,despite of seeing limited floor time of late, to lead the way as he takes advantage of the room he will have vs a group on tired legs and without a key cog in their lineup. 

The Seventysixers are 0-16 ATS /1-15 SU on the road after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.The Pelicans are 14-1 ATS /13-2 SU at home with less than two days rest after they scored a least 18 fast break points. 

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The Kings came in and outplayed a  very good Oklahoma City side this past  Saturday night by beating the  Thunder by a 119-116 score. However, tonight , Im betting that the Kings. playing their fourth straight road game on tired legs and a letdown situation after that above mentioned big win wont be as fortunate vs a team that beat them by a 132-105 count here on Dec 17th the last time these teams played.

The Kings are 0-14 ATS/SU when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range .The Timberwolves are 11-0 ATS/SU as a home favorite with rest off a loss in a road game in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 129-28 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a +7.7 point differential. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

  The Bears last four games have been decided by an average margin of 2.3 points with the Coppin State, South Carolina State, Savannah State and now Norfolk State games coming down to the final possession. Plain bad luck that Im betting comes to end here tonight vs Howard. 

The Bears rank No. 1 in the league in turnover margin (+3.52).

Play on Morgan State 

San Antonio  concludes a  sub par 1-6  annual rodeo trip vs a Brooklyn team that  they have beaten in the last 7 meetings. The Spurs recorded a 117-114 win in San Antonio on Jan. 31, and get the nod again here. Desperation here is a key factor in me backing a good but frustrated Spurs side in tonight confrontation. Note: Brooklyn after a torrid mid season inning run, have cooled off, and is 4-7 in its last 11 games and looking vulnerable at the moment in their current form. SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

The Spurs are 26-5 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss as a favorite which happened last time out.San Antonio  lost 120-117 at Toronto.The Spurs are 11-0 ATS /10-1 SU when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field.

The Nets are 0-11 ATS/SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a game as a dog when they lost 4 straight vs current opponent.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 75-32 ATS L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the San Antonio. Spurs to cover 

My own projections make this offered Total slightly bloated as my number is closer to 229. I know its just a few points, but from system vs system matchup chart I use the numbers suggest   a combined score in the vicinity of 225 via a variable chart that is also in place, thus giving us added value to the under. Note: CHARLOTTE is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season. ( Charlotte is ranked 20th in pace and 18th in ppg scored and can only compete by being more physical, which will effect overall scoring output) 

The Warriors are 0-11 UNDER  on the road with rest off a loss when they are off two games in which their opponent had double-digit steals with the average combined score clicking in at 182.1 ppg . 

The Hornets are 0-11 UNDER as a dog with less than two days rest off a loss in which they scored 10 or more points in the fourth than the first quarter with a average combined score of 195.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Nuggets have owned opponents at home this season winning 20 of 24 games here in the Mile High City which includes a 121-100 win vs todays visitor the LA Clippers back on Jan 10. I know the Clippers will be out to bounce back and be more competitive in the rematch, but my power rankings system vs system matchup analysis  suggests  that this is not a good matchup for the Clippers and avoiding a more than 9 point loss, is not a high probability occurrence. With that said, Im recommending we lay the points with the home side.

The Nuggets are 11-0 ATS/SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a win in which their opponent made at least 10 more free throws.The Nuggets are 17-2 ATS/18-1 SU at home with less than two days rest off a win as a road favorite. The Nuggets are 10-0 ATS/SU L/10 as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5. 

DENVER is 20-9 ATS  in home games this season and  14-1 ATS   in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season.DENVER is 7-0 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season. 

The Clippers are 1-15-1 ATS /1-16 SU as a dog with rest off a win in a road game in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field the average point differential was -11.8 ppg. 

Play on Denver to cover 

This is going to be a behemoth and very physical conference  battle involving two stop tier defensive teams that dont like each other very much. The Spartans  love the run and gun out of transition , but Michigan is a team built to slow the most explosive sides in the nation down. With all the Spartans injuries, I doubt they will be is fluid as usual and instead be hell bent on delivering heavy elbows in the paint and trying to find a way to win by making life difficult for Teske and drawing him into foul trouble. This Im betting will see a much lower scoring tilt than then the linesmakers and public expect. 

MICHIGAN ST is 9-0 UNDER  off 2 straight wins against conference rivals this seasonMICHIGAN is 9-1 UNDER  when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season.MICHIGAN is 6-0 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots after 15+ games this season.

CBB Road teams against the total (MICHIGAN ST) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or more) are 55-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

The Toronto Raptors are playing in top tier form at the moment and have won 7 straight games, and will be ramped up to deliver payback to a Orlando team that beat them by a surprising 116-87 count back in December . The Magic ,  however, won't be easily intimidated  as they have also been playing decent ball winning 5 of their L/6. What Im betting on here today is for the Raptors despite of the early start to be wide awake and to come out here running and gunning and to pour down points in revenge mode against the Magic and for the young men from Central Florida to fire back in chase mode in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. TORONTO is 11-3 OVER revenging a loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored.

The Raptors are 8-0 OVER after a game as a home favorite in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers with a combined average of 233 ppg scored which was the case last time out vs San Antonio.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (TORONTO) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 39-11 OVER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 224 ppg going on the score board.

Play OVER 

This is the second and final regular-season meeting between the teams. Villanova won 85-75 on its home court Jan. 18 and Im expecting a out put of at least 142 points here according to my projections , which is a full 6 points higher than this offered Total which makes for a strong value call here to the OVER. Note: Four of the L/5 meetings here at Xavier have gone OVER.

The OVER is 5-1 in Musketeers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over is 39-18 in Musketeers last 57 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

XAVIER is 18-5 OVER L/23 in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games with a combined average score of 153.3 ppg scored.

Play on the OVER 

 The Jazz were absolutely embarrassed and smashed by Dallas the last time these teams met earlier this season by a 118-68 count. It was the Jazz’ worst loss in franchise history. Tonight Im betting pay back is on the agenda and if recent history repeats itself like I think it will the Jazz will increase on a  3-0 ATS record when seeking revenge from a 40-point or more loss. The Jazz have  also won and covered  4 straight in same-season non-divisional revenge this season and from a league wide NBA data base it must be reported that sides playing with revenge from a loss of 50 or more points are 4-0 ATS against teams playing on back to back nights like Dallas is. Its not often I lay DDs, but this situation warrants laying this many points.

UTAH is 9-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA  Home favorites (UTAH) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 48-19 ATS L/5 season for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Jazz to cover 

 Kansas despite of being banged up and having to deal with suspensions  has still  won  14 consecutive conference titles, behind Bill Selfs tut-ledge are always a dangerous opponent for all comers.   In addition, the Jayhawks have dominated this series in the past vs TexasTech and  are 18-1 SU in L/19 meetings. These teams are  tied  in the standings and to break the lock Im betting this will be a harder fought affair for the Red Raiders than the home chalk designation is indicating.

Kanas beat Texas Tech convincingly back on Feb. 2 79-63 and Im betting the swing on this line is to much based on the last matchup.  

Kansas coach Bill Self in his career as a conference dog from Game 25 out, is 10-0 ATS against hoops programs  he beat by 3 or more points in the most recent meeting.

KANSAS is 6-0 ATS  in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 39% or less over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Kansas to cover 

Over the last two games, Thunder star Westbrook is averaging 43.5 points, is shooting 56 percent from the floor, and has a combined 10 made 3-pointers and Im betting his team feeds off that energy tonight against the run and gun Kings in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. Note: Sacramento runs at the 3rd fastest pace in the league and owns the 27th ranked defence. Meanwhile, the Thunder own the 2nd ranked pace , and the leagues 3rd best offensive output . This total might seem high , but the the speed these teams play and the way they can pour down points Im betting the Total gets eclipsed. 

Oklahoma City beat the Kings on the road this season by a 132-111 count. Im expecting Thunder to explode for close to the same amount this time around and for the Kings to eclipse their previous out put. 

SACRAMENTO is 12-1 OVER  as a road underdog on the opening line of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  

The Thunder are 14-1-1 OVER off a win as a home favorite in which their points increased by at least 25 from the game before.The Kings are 23-5-2 OVER as a dog with rest after a game as a road dog in which out scoring their opponent in the paint by double digits.

Play OVER 

When these teams met back on Jan 19, they took part in a high scoring affair, that resulted in a 91-83 output of 174 points. Im betting on a similar back forth high scoring affair here today that eclipses this Total.  

W CAROLINA is 9-1 OVER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games with a combined average of 169.5 pig scored with a combined average of 162.9 ppp going on the board.

VMI is 13-3 OVER versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season.

VMI is 8-0 OVER  after playing 4 consecutive games as an underdog this season with a combined average of 166.6 ppg scored.

CBB Road teams against the total (VMI) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games are 100-62 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

With Kevin Love back in the lineup Cleveland is becoming very competitive and deserve respect here as short favourites vs a Memphis side that has lost 15 of their L/19 games overall and playing without without star rookie Jaren Jackson Jr.. 

 The Grizzlies are 2-16 ATS on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest after being outscored in the paint by double digits.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 108-26 SU L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Duke will be playing without injured star Zion Williamson, the leading candidate to win the National Player of the Year Award. That should help Syracuse be confident enough to be competitive here today behind what is expected to be a gigantic crowed  tonight. I know HC Boheim was in a fatal car crash earlier this week that killed a pedestrian, but he will be on the bench and has the type of personality that will help him deal with this sad event. Look for his team to respond to his situation in a big way and provide a competitive effort. Also I know Syracuse (18-8, 9-4) won the first game between the teams 95-91 in overtime, and Duke has revenge on board, but from empirical standpoint these competing systems matchup much more evenly than many might expect. 

 SYRACUSE is 13-4 ATS  in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. 

SYRACUSE is 17-7 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Syracuse to cover 

Im betting Kentucky gets tested here tonight against Bruce Pearls high flying run and  gun  Auburn squad.Auburn lives and dies by the 3-point shot and by easy buckets off turnovers and when their in top form like they are here tonight, their not going to be easy to beat. Yes, not even here at Rupp Arena. Kentucky turns the ball over a lot and they defend in close much better than at the down town line curve. Im not saying Auburn pulls off a win in one of the hardest venues to win at in the nation, Im just betting that they make a game of this and get us a cover .

Play on Auburn to cover 

 Methodical Virginia one of the best coached teams in the country from a systems stand point is not invincible like some might think, as was the case when they lost to Duke earlier this season, and when they were unceremoniously knocked out of the NCAA tourney in the first round of last year.  Today against their host Louisville  Im betting their conservative ways and dependence on 3 point shooting for big leads will be tested as the home crowd makes life difficult for the visitors cohesiveness. Add to that the Cardinal have revenge for a loss in the ACC tourney last season you have a very motivated opponent to deal with.   Note:  The Cards are 32-7 SU with conference revenge at the KFC Yum! Center. I know Louisville has struggled a bit of late, but Im betting that won't be the case here as redemption is at hand.LOUISVILLE is 8-1 ATS after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists over the last 2 seasons and is 8-1 ATS  after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Louisville to cover 

LSU hosts Tennessee at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center this Saturday afternoon.  The top tier Vols go against a LSU team off an upset loss at home last time out by Florida, but it must be noted that the Tigers have been good bounce back side especially at home where they have not lost back-to-back home games this season and wont be easily defeated here today, making getting points in my humble opinion a very good betting option. LSU is 11-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons and s 6-0 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

LSU is 8-2 ATS  vs. good free throw shooting teams - making  72% or more  of their attempts this season.

Play on LSU to cover 

Dallas looked a little flat going into the all star break and will be out looking to get back on track here tonight against visiting Denver. The Cavs have been strong at home this season going 20-9 SU while, Denver has been a .500 road team, but are sub par from a all important betting perspective as they have failed to cover 18 of their 28 road games for a 36% ATS conversion rate. Dallas has won and covered 3 of their L/4 as hosts and Im recommending we take the points in this spot play.

Denver HC Malone is 4-15 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins in all games he has coached since 1996 ( The Nuggets won their L/2 before the all star break)

DENVER is 8-20 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 1-10 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 2 seasons.

DALLAS is 8-1 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.DALLAS is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog this season.

NBA Home underdogs (DALLAS) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, second half of the season are 46-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (DALLAS) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, in February games are 25-11 SU L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential of the 36 game sample size clicking in at +1.1 ppg. 

Play on Dallas to cover 

Detroit was red hot winning 4 of their L/5 with the lone loss coming to Boston at the all star break. However, despite of their up trending play , this Motown group have not been very good overall on the road this season losing 19 of their 26 away tilts.

Meanwhile, their opponents Atlanta lost their last game at home before the All star break but are capable of bouncing back as they continue their rebuild and have shown flashes of brilliance, this season. The last time they played the Pistons the Hawks upset them 98-95 as 9 point road dogs back in December  and despite of  Detroit looking for revenge it must be noted that  HC Casey is 8-25 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more in all games he has coached since 1996. 

DETROIT is 11-24 ATS  after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons and   is 16-25 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

ATLANTA is 20-9 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons

.Note:  NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 28-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, second half of the season are 47-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Timberwolves are 8-20 on the road and just don't sit well with me as road chalk by this much, yes not even against the lowly Knicks. The Knicks will be attempting to win consecutive games for just the second time this season. New York after ending a ugly 18-game losing streak with a 106-91 win at Atlanta on Feb. 14 look use the momentum of that win here tonight.  With that Knicks incorporating some new blood into the lineup Im betting they will be competitive tonight. NY is 2-0 ATS L/2 vs Minnesota at home.

The Knicks are 12-1 ATS /SU at home off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with the one straight up loss coming by 1 point. 

MINNESOTA is 0-12 ATS   in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.The Timberwolves are 0-13 ATS /2-11 SU on the road after they shot over 50% from the field. with the two victories coming by 4 points and 2 points. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

The Spurs entered the all star break in a slump, and many believe Toronto will be out looking for retribution for a DD loss to the Spurs earlier this season. Yes, the Spurs were slumping and yes the Raptors have revenge on board, but because of this the price being asked on the line a is a little bloated according to my projections. The line I have set clicks in a 4.5 so according to my estimates we have value with a talented San Antonio team that desperately needs to get back on track and won't be easily run over here. Note:  TORONTO is 3-13 ATS  in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Spurs are 13-3 SU L/16 overall meetings and are 5-0 ATS L/5 battles.

SAN ANTONIO is 18-9 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. TORONTO is 10-19 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season.

NBA team (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in five consecutive games, in non-conference games are 69-31 ATS L/22 season for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 

 A couple of weeks ago Harvard demolished Brown by a  68-47 walloping.  That was a strange game considering these are the leagues two top scoring teams..  The low scoring domination by the Crimson Im betting was an outlier and that this game will be more true to form, with the revenge minded home team getting the advantage taking points as their opponent will Im betting get caught looking ahead to a big game with Yale tomorrow.       

Play on Brown to cover 

When I look for underdogs one of my criteria is find a team that can shoot threes consistently and convert on FTs from the charity stripe. The Big Green are one of those pups , as their shooting percentages include 71.7% for free throws and 38.4% for three point percentage so far this season. Their hosts Yale, shooting percentages include 69.5% for free throw percentage and 36.9% for three point percentage at this point of the campaign. Yale is the superior overall team, but they do have a big game against Harvard tomorrow, and could easily be overlooking this opponent and if Bulldogs have a big lead , could also easily take their foot of the pedal and allow an opportunity for a back door cover. 

DARTMOUTH is 17-2 ATS in road games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better since 1997(which was the case against Princeton last time out in a 1 point loss)

DARTMOUTH is 6-0 ATS after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

McLaughlin is 8-1 ATS  in road games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games as the coach of DARTMOUTH.

Big Green are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.Big Green are 20-8-4 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up loss.Big Green are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.Big Green are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.Big Green are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Ivy LeagueRoad team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.Big Green are 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Yale.

CBB Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (YALE) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 19-45 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 70% for bettors on the blind.

Play on Dartmouth to cover 

Ohio looks like they have packed it in for the season as is evident by having lost 6 straight games SU/ATS. Meanwhile, Bowling Green is 11-2 in conference play and wont let up Im betting until they cross the finish line. 

BOWLING GREEN is 10-0 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. 

OHIO U is 4-18 ATS  in all games this season.OHIO U is 1-11 ATS   after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

OHIO U is 0-7 ATS  versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games this season.

CBB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OHIO U) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 10-29 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Bowling Green to cover 

Hawaii has revenge on board here tonight for a ugly DD loss as 3-point home favs to Santa Barbara la couple of weeks ago and have responded by winning 3 of their L/4 and will be primed for pay back here vs a side that has lost 3 straight games. UC-SANTA BARBARA is 18-33 ATS L/51 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more  of their shots after 15+ games .Ganot is 11-3 ATS  in road games in February games as the coach of HAWAII.

HAWAII is 9-2 ATS after playing a home game this season.  UC-SANTA BARBARA is 2-8 ATS  against conference opponents this season. 

CBB team (HAWAII) - revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent are  101-56 L/22 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Hawaii to cover 

The Sacramento Kings are the type of team that matchup well vs the explosive Dubs, and are very viable underdogs here on the road. Sacramento has covered 4 of the L/5 meetings here in gets the nod again in this spot play. Note: The Kings are 4-0 ATS L/4 with more than 5 days rest. Golden State is 4-14 ATS L/18 after 5 days rest. 

GOLDEN STATE is 9-22 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.GOLDEN STATE is 4-13 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

The Warriors are 1-12 ATS at home with rest after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s.

The Kings are 12-0 ATS/10-2 SU L/12 on the road with rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s a game.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

This line according to projections is bloated and should be closer to -9 t for the home team thus giving us line value of more than 1 possession , which makes for a viable advantage player proposition. Back on Feb 2 N.Arizona bombed Idaho by DDs, and now the visitors have revenge on board. Im betting they stand tall here, and make a better effort in the rematch and get us the cover. 

 ARIZONA is 2-9 ATS  when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

CBB Underdogs of 10 or more points (IDAHO) - after allowing 75 points or more 5 straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 55-21 L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Idaho to cover

Top seeded Lafayette was dramatically upset in the semifinals of their conference tourney last by UT Arlington, 71-68 after looking like they would be going to the NCAA tournament towards the end of late season. Now with huge revenge on board I expect  a Louisiana  side that is a perfect 8-0 ATS L/8  when seeking revenge for a LTKO conference tourney loss the previous season to get us the cover here today. I know the Mavs are a strong team despite of being on a 2 game losing streak but the Cajuns are battle tested after brutal non conference schedule , that seen them play  Power 5 programs Indiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Texas, plus top-5 ranked Gonzaga.

CBB team (LA-LAFAYETTE) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 75-27 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UL Lafayette to cover 

After a big mid season run Brooklyn has six losses in its last nine games and according to my matchup stats are over matched here vs a side that can easily run with them.The Blazers went into the all star break showing how under rated they are when they dominated the fourth quarter in their 129-107 win over the Warriors at home behind. Damian Lillard scored 29 points. Im betting he will be the key again here tonight in a road victory for the Blazers.PORTLAND is 8-1 ATS  after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.

Note: Portland owns a 9th ranked  +3.71 SRS compared to Brooklyns 21st ranked -1.22 SRS. ( 

SRS stands for Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. 

Portland is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Nets and has won their L/2 visits to Brooklyn.

NBA Home underdogs (BROOKLYN) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 12-38 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Portland to cover