Washington has quite honestly looked horrendous this season, with five of their defeats coming  by double-digits, Washington is allowing 120.5 points per game and has already allowed at least 134 points three times. Just nasty numbers, and until they can get this ship righted look very much to be fade material, even against a young inconsistent Orlando group. The Magic are still trying tolearn to win, and have shown some signs of waking up of late and have won 2 of their L/3, and despite of a loss last time to Detroit as they still shot 46 percent but were some how outscored 25-16 in the fourth when they shot 5 of 16 and committed nine turnovers.  These I consider to be growing pains for a team like the Magic and their more than capable of turning things around and getting us a cover here at home tonight.WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS   when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons and just 20-38 ATS  as a favourite over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Orlando to cover 

The 76ers are playing their best basketball at home, and have won all 6 tilts as hosts this season, and once again look like strong candidates to get the job done again vs Charlotte and more importantly cover the number. I know the Hornets played the 76ers tough the first time they met this season, losing by a 105-103 count, but Im expecting after reassessing their opponents   a wider margin of victory this time around, for the home side ,even though Charlotte is exuding confidence and saying they feel they can hang with the Sixers. 

PHILADELPHIA is 21-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and is 17-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff coming in at 10.9 ppg. CHARLOTTE is 13-25 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with an average point diff of 6.4 ppg. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they covered the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 63-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with he average point diff clicking in at 9.5 ppg. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Bowling Green according to my projections is only  a 14.5 dog, here thus giving us value on this bloated line. 

Portland can run and gun with the best of teams, but they can also be very tough to deal with defensively, as is evident by  having  held 3 of their L/6 opponents to 93 points or less. The teams they limited were Indiana ( 93) Houston (85) and Minnesota (81). Against this type of free wheeling Clippers team, Im betting behind their 5th best ppg D, and a pace that ranks 17th in the league they force the visitor to adapt to their pace, which will take the Clippers flow away and as result will effect the total offensive combined output of this affair. 

Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 overall.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600

PORTLAND is 21-10 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with at the average combined score clicking in at 205.8 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 36-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Linesmakers out of the gate like to over compensate on games involving Evansville, because of their methodical system. From a matchup analysis system vs system player vs player power ranking totals system I use this Total is beatable to the over. My projections place this game against Illinois in the 152 range giving us value. 

EVANSVILLE is 15-5 OVER  in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 and is 27-10 OVER  in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997/

Play OVER 

Morehead does not matchup well vs UConn, and have a recent history of down road efforts in the early part of the season.MOREHEAD ST is 0-6 ATS in road games in November games over the last 3 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 17 ppg. 

UConn HC Hurley is 19-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points in all games he has coached. 

Play on the UConn to cover

This selection is based on a score projection algorithm trend  that I have been using for close to a decade. It has converted at 62% clip over 722 game selection sample. 

GEORGE WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER  in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the OVER 

The LA Lakers  and their super star LeBron James will  primed  to up their game,  after being embarrassed last time out  vs the Toronto Raptors at home getting blasted by DDs. James is the kind of big ego super star who hates to be beat, and Im betting he will be energized and ready to make a statement here tonight vs a struggling Minnesota team that has lost all 6 of their road games this season and on tired legs as they play their 4th  away game in less than a week. Note: The Timberwolves have lost 20 of their L/21 as road dogs SU, with the average  score diff clicking in at 11 ppg. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover 

Chicago enters this road game  vs New Orleans banged up with Lauri Markkanen (elbow), Kris Dunn (knee), Bobby Portis (knee) and Denzel Valentine (ankle) all expected to miss Wednesday's game which should slow them offensively tonight in the Bayou. Note: Chicago ranks 22nd in offence in the league, and 25th in pace. Meanwhile, New Orleans is playing their first home game since embarking on a gruelling 5 game road trip against some explosive opponents that have seen a lot of  offense  ( Denver, San Antonio, Portland, Godlen St. Oklahoma City). Still recuperating and getting acclimated to playing at home again Im betting they won't be fresh enough to want to run and gun with wreck-less abandon and will be also out to make sure their defensive haemorrhaging stops which has them ranked last in the league ppg allowed. My projections estimate a projected combined score in the range of 224 which gives us value on this number. Ive also taken into consideration rule changes which have added to offensive outputs , so our cushion according to those estimations give us an edge to the UNDER. 

HC Gentry Pelicans   in their L/21  home games when playing against a struggling  team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%)  have seen a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. Gentry L/19   in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen he and his opponents coming to average 222.7 ppg in offensives output. 

CHICAGO in its L/24 games  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a struggling team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 26-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Steve Clifford called this young talented Orlando group out 3 games ago after they got smashed by the Clippers losing by 25 points at home. Since that embarrassment they have bounced back with two straight wins  shooting a combined  47.7%  vs the  San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers . I really like the energy this team has right now, and feel they have an edge in a tilt vs a Detroit Pistons team still trying to find an identity under new HC Casey. Detroit is also in major funk as is evident by their current five-game losing streak,  behind some dismal shooting which clicks in at a lowly 40.5 percent, 25.3 percent on 3-pointers while averaging 105.4 points. We have two teams playing at the proverbial  opposite end of the performance spectrum , and taking the points with the  up trending MAGIC is my recommendation. 

Detroit has failed to cover 19 of their L/25 on the road with a +3 to -3 line. Orlando has won 4 straight at home in this series and are 6-1 ATS L/7 overall meetings.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

LATE STEAM- My projections estimate a combined score in the range of 150+ giving us value on the offered number. Im estimating that W.Carolina scores in the low to mid 60s on offence. Note:W CAROLINA is 8-0 OVER in road games when they score 61 to 66 points in a game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 153.4 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

 These teams can be explosive offensively but the lines-makers are in my humble opinion over estimating total output . I base my own assumptions/projections on my power ranking systems, and head to head systems matchup analysis. They point to a total closer to 224 , which gives us value to the under on this current number. Yes, their have been some higher scoring variables because of some rule changes  in the NBA this season but I have calculated that into those above mentioned projections. 

PORTLAND is 20-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg going on the board.MILWAUKEE in their L/25 games after after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 224.3 ppg go on the board. 

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Portland.

NBA team (PORTLAND/MILWAUKEE) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 48-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average combined score clicking in at 189.6 ppg. 

Play on the UNDER 

HC Pasternack’s in his  first season at USC Santa Barbara turned this team around in a big way, going from 6-22 in 2017 to 23-9 last season, a minor miracle.  But with 4 of 5 starters gone I'm betting things wont be as smooth this season. Yes key starter guard Max Heidegger is back but his supporting cast is not on his level, and well coached teams like the Pokes will be to center on him, which slow the Gauchos attack down. Meanwhile, Wyoming an explosive uptempo team behind  senior guard Justin. James  who was a First Team All-Mountain West selection last season averaging 18.9 points per game to be to much for the visitors to handle  as this game progresses. 

Wyoming has won three-straight games in the series and is 3-0 all-time against UCSB in Laramie.

CBBUnderdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UC-SANTA BARBARA) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wyoming to cover 

Note: Both of these teams travelled in preseason.   Kentucky went to the Bahamas, Duke went to Canada. Overall Kentucky played the better teams and should be battle tested, while the Blue Devils will not be after playing lower tier Canuck hoops teams.

Both Kentucky and Duke are full of 5 star recruits. But what sets these teams apart here at the beginning of this season  is not the talent base, but  it  the experience level, where Kentucky holds the edge. The Cats will have two starters in the lineup from last season, while Duke has 4 new top tier kids in the lineup that will likely bolt to the NBA after this season including RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Zion Williamson. I'm betting Duke will take some time to jell, while Kentucky will find chemistry early. 

Kentucky to cover 

The Nets have won 2 of their L/3 and are an up trending team, according to my power rankings. They have been getting more cohesive because the team is beginning to jell and their chemistry stabilizing because they have used the same starting five -- LeVert, Russell, Joe Harris, Jarrett Allen and  Jared Dudley ,in each of their first 10 games. Im betting their abilities as a unit will be to much for the Suns to handle tonight ,as it was for the 76ers in their last game.( Brooklyn beat Philly on Sunday night 122-97 as dogs). BROOKLYN is 9-1 ATS  after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. I know the Suns snapped a 7 game losing streak last time out, but are just 0-4 ATS L/4 in their followup. 

Note: Brooklyn has struggled with their D, at times this season, but Phoenix is not the kind of team that can take advantage of this as is evident by a 4-17 L/21 ATS mark vs struggling Defences, 106 or more point per game. 

BROOKLYN is 20-6 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 3 seasons.

Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a  81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

Western Michigan and Detroit both have just 1 starter back each, but when evaluating over all talent and placing a preseason power ranking, I feel we have some value with the visiting DD underdog. So we are on take with the jesuits. 

CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (DETROIT) - poor defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of 45% or worse, in a non-conference game between two teams from mid-major division 1-A conferences are 24-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate.

Play on Detroit Mercy to cover 

Indiana States Jordan Barnes the best player on the court for either of these teams tonight averaged 3.7 3-pointers per game last season to rank fourth in the nation and tops in the MVC Im betting his ability to stop and pop from downtown gives tIndiana State the edge here tonight vs a Ball State side that is 0-5 ATS L/5 overall dating back to last season. 

Cardinals are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.Sycamores are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Mid-America.Sycamores are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Ball St..Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Play on Indiana State to cover 

Im expecting a physical game between these to teams tonight and a score that remains on the low side of the number,

Izzo is 24-14 UNDER  as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.Self is 21-11 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games in November games as the coach of KANSAS.

CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 10+ wins in last 12 games, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

Toronto despite of being offensively explosive and on a current 3 game winning streak , bump into a tough scheduling situation on the road tonight, as they are on tired legs after playing in the LA last night vs the Lakers, and with this being their 3rd game in 4nights could find the sledding tough as this game progresses in the thin air of Salt Lake City. Add to that key two way stalwart Kawhi Leonard remains less than 100%  with a a ankle injury . Meanwhile, Utah despite of a current 3 game losing streak, are still a hard out behind a  physical brand of hoops that matches up well vs the Raptors style of play. I know the Utah is 0-3 at home so far the campaign and their-usually sound D, has shown some early season inconsistencies, but hey this is great spot for them to come out of their current funk, and get rolling in the right direction. With that said, Im betting on Utah playing hard tonight and getting us the cover. 

UTAH is 27-15 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 21-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate .

NBA Favorites (TORONTO) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43% orless on the season against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are just 6-24 ATS for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

Boston (6-3) enters this Mile High City game off a  loss that snapped a 4 game win streak, last time out vs Indiana on Saturday night, in a hard fought physical affair.  The Celtics will of course now be primed for a bounce back. But like Mick Jagger and his Rolling Stones like to say  " You Don;t Always get What you Want". The Celtics are a fine team that bases their successes and failures on playing very good two way hoops, and nothing will change tonight vs a team playing with similar mind set . Meanwhile, their opponents the (8-1, 5-0 Home) Denver Nuggets are also a team that is now sold on playing strong defence and being aggressive offensively. Right now both team are playing similar basketball, with the difference maker Im betting coming via the Nuggets strong home court advantage and the Nuggets up-trending  ability to guard against the the Downtown Trey. Note:Denver's 3-point defense was last in the league in 2017-18 but has improved significantly in that area in the first nine games of this season. Boston takes 37.3 shots from 3-point range, third in the NBA, and has launched a total of 101 in it last two games. Boston is a fine team, and must be respected ,but for tonight, they go on my temporary fade list. 

DENVER is 34-17 ATS L/51 in home games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite .

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 13-41 L/5 seasons for go against  76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average point differential coming by 5.2 ppg. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (DENVER) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 90 points or less are 65-8  L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential coming by 11.8 ppg.  TEAM 109.7 Opp 97.9

Play on Denver to cover 

I have watched both these teams play this season, and like the vibe of the Knicks  as compared to the inconsistent tone of the  Bulls. That 's an old school and simplistic way of looking at teams , but from past experiences can bring to light  an extremely accurate  perspective on certain types of matchups. Its like letting your sense of smell ,indicate if something stinks or not. I dont mean to be derogatory , as the Bulls have been competitive  , but coach Hoiberg cant  seem to keep this young groups flow going for a full 48 minutes.   My power rankings also agree with my assessments, thus giving the home team NYK the edge in this spot play between two teams that do not inspire bettors. Note from a SRS perspective Chicago ranks 26th at -7.29, while Knicks rank 20th at -3.13. Defensively the Knicks are ranked 10th in the league, which gives them an edge vs a side with the 23rd ranked Off.

SRS -Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

 The Knicks have won their L/2 home games as chalk this season vs Atlanta and Brooklyn and are playing another team they matchup well against.

CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a struggling team (25% or less) playing a team with a losing record are 2-23 L/5 seasons for a go against SU 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average point differential clicking in at 6.9 ppg. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Let me start off by saying that the Raptors are a talented disciplined team with or without the often injured Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. So me choosing the Raptors to win this game is not based on on him playing tonight, even though reports out of Toronto say that he practiced yesterday and looked fine, and is scheduled to have tomorrow night off as the Raptors prepare to play back to back games, but should play tonight if he so chooses. With that said, look for the leadership of the Raptors Kyle Lowry who leads the NBA at 11.2 assists per game and who has reached double digits in assists in a career-high seven straight games to be the key difference maker here today, against a ruttlerless, Lakers team that has talent, but no real system . With that said, in game that is essentially a pickem Im betting the Raptors  out work a Lakers  team that despite of resting key players like James  in the later stages of last nights game will still have a tired bench, and at a disadvantage vs a deep team that is dangerous and knows how to win.

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Raptors are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (TORONTO) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more  on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 25-1 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors..

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

 The Wizards enter this game ranked last in the league in points allowed (129.3)  and were booed off the floor this past Friday night by their fans after a ugly 134-111 effort.  I  now expect the Wizards a side that has a 25th ranked off Ranking (106.1) to bring some energy to this tilt and to be more attentive and methodical in transition which Im betting takes some points off what is expected by the lines makers from the Wizards and from both teams. Note: Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Meanwhile, the Knicks behind a young roster have settled down after a slow start and are playing more disciplined system, that has them ranked 9th in points allowed, behind a pace that is ranked 24th in the league (98.7) and a offence that is ranked 23rd in the league (107.3 ppg). What Im betting on happening here is for the Knicks to continue their current form, and for Washington to try to be more stout defensively, which will result in a score that does not eclipse this Total.

Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Under is 4-0-1 in Wizards last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NEW YORK is 45-29 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.8 ppg.

WASHINGTON's L/50 games  against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average score of 218.2 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 23-3 UNDER 22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.  

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or more) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%) are 62-28 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Denver Nuggets are playing at a high level at the moment, and look hell bent on getting to the play offs this season, behind a talented group. Their off one days rest but should be very fresh after beating Cleveland last time out as no starter played more than 28 minutes in the game. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the Utah Jazz are a banged up group that is on tired legs as they play on back to back nights  and 3rd game in 4 nights, and their 5th game of the week. Utah is a fine team, but the energy they have exerted over a short period of time Im betting effects their performance tonight. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

The Pelicans  a team on a ugly 4 game losing skid and on  tired legs prepare to play  their third game in four nights and for the fourth game of a five-contest road trip tonight against a Spurs team that has impressed me with their new look, as key cogs Aldridge, DeRozen, continue to play at a high level. Im have alot of respect for Spurs coach Popovich and I'm not a big believer in Pelicans coach Gentry;s  wreck-less take no prisoners run and gun system. With Pelicans Star forward Anthony Davis at less than 100% with various nagging injuries, Im betting against the Pelicans here tonight in the Alamo city. 

Spurs are  30-8 straight up against Pelicans since 1996 in San Antonio. 

San Antonio  to cover 

Indiana is  a defence first team enters this game against Boston with the 3rd ranked points per game allowed D at 102.9ppg, while their offensive output is ranked at 22nd in the league (108.6 ppg) , Their pace is ranked 29 out of 30 teams (96.4). Meanwhile, the Cletics a team becomign well know for their defensive proficiencies, is ranked first in points allowed (99.5 ppg) and first in defensive rating (99.2) and 17th in pace (100.3) and just 28th in offensive output averaging (104.2 ppg). Today I expect two teams that key their defensive abilities o their successes and failures to continue on this course and for this contest to stay on the low side of the Total. 

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 203 ppg.

Play UNDER 

We have two teams currently playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum with Washington on a current 4 game losing streak, and the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder on a 3 game win streak. From a matchup perspective and player to player/system vs system standpoint the Thunder also have the edge and have what every coach loves,  a hard working never say die group. So Im not worried bout them being on tired legs here tonight after playing last night. A recent quote also exhibits the respect the Thunder have for each other which will only add to their current positive chemistry. QUOTE: "I'm fortunate I play with one of the baddest (expletive) in this league," George told the Oklahoman about hiss super star team mate Wetbrook. "Excuse my language, but it's the best way to describe him. Just straight toughest dude out there." END QUOTE.

I can't describe Washingtons current performances with the same admiration, and Im fading them here tonight, and in the near future till they show me they can be more consistent and compete when the going gets tough. 

Look for another key difference maker tonight to come via the Thunders superior Charity stripe shooting.The Thunder lead the NBA in free throws attempted per game and made 21 of 29 Thursday night.

WASHINGTON is 11-24 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Wizards are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games overall.Wizards are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Wizards are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.Wizards are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.

Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.  

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 73-35 ATS L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate on the blind. 

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Rockets  enter this game against Brooklyn having lost their five games by an average of 14.4 points and were blown off the court last time in embarrassing DD fashion by Portland 104-85. They also have trailed by at least 20 points for 39:10 after trailing by at least 20 points in a league-low 12:51 last season. Their 1-5 record is indicative of just how little effort they seem to be putting into games , and its not because of James Hardens absence. But despite of this here I am laying points with them on the road . Call me crazy, but Im expecting the Rockets to wake up long enough tonight to put the hammer down on a Brooklyn Nets team that my power rankings and cross reference player to player and system matchup suggest  favour the Rockets . Note: HC D'Antoni is 24-8 ATS  in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached since 1996.D'Antoni is 8-0 ATS  in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more as the coach of HOUSTON. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BROOKLYN) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in November games are 2-27 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 93% for bettors. 

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 

These teams have operated at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum to begin their seasons. So its obvious from a statistical handicapping  outlook, that one would have to consider the Nuggets the superior side in their current form. The only important question left for me to answer , is whether the Cavs with momentum can cover here at home,  vs a Denver team that looks pooched and barely escaped Chicago with a 108-107 win last night and now paying their 3rd game in 4 nights on tired legs.  The answer , Im betting is the Cavs off their first win of the season last time out and on fresher legs  can and will make a game of this and get us the cover. 

Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

HC Malone is 16-29 ATS off a road win as the coach of DENVER. 

CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Cavs won 136-114 vs Atlanta last time out.

DENVER is 5-15 ATS after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less are 23-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

The Wolves looked strong in a 124-120 win over the Los Angeles Lakers last time out,  as both Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns played well. The trade rumours associated with Butler are something he might be feeding off, instead of it effecting him in a negative way. Tonight Im betting the Wolves, are up to the task on their own home floor of dealing with a  quality Utah side that might be dealing with a little fatigue as they play their 4th straight road game, and 3rd game in 4 nights. 

MINNESOTA is 35-19 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game over the last 3 seasons. Wolves HC Thibodeau is 16-4 ATS after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots in all games he has coached since 1996.

NBA  Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 7-20 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after scoring 110 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 20-48 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover 

Charlotte beat Miami in their first meeting this season in Florida, by a 113-112 count a 3.5 point dogs and according to my power rankings and more advanced statistical head to head situations matchup well against the Heat . This is strictly a matchup comparison based on how the Hornets play teams like Miami.  With that said, lets lay the short lumber with the home team.

CHARLOTTE is 12-0 ATS  versus struggling pressure defensive teams - forcing 12  or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. 

Road underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games are 11-33 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 

New HC Drew will coach the winless Cavaliers Tuesday night when the Hawks visit town. The lines makers are leaning on the hapless Cavs to suddenly come to life and  jump off their death beds long enough to win and cover vs a Atlanta team that handily  beat  them by DDs in their first meeting this season by a 133-111 count. Drew might turn this team around eventually , but they are not viable favorites right now and are still fade material until Im proven wrong. You have to remember this was a team without a system last year, under former HC Lue and just played off the energy of LeBron James. Now with no James, a huge albatross hangs over the team, and until they shake those effects off, they are destined to getting punched out on a consistent basis. With their talent base, the Cavs will get going eventually but not just yet as key starter Kevin Love remains on the sidelines with an injury.Cleveland enters the game as one of the league's worst defensive teams with a defensive rating of 120.1 while allowing 118.5 points per game and lost 119 -107 to Indiana last time out. 

CLEVELAND is 1-11 ATS  in home games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasonsCLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS  in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Atlanta to cover 

In  game 4 of their season the Orland Magic  shocked the NBA pundits with a defensive gem and win vs the Boston Celtics . But that upset for  Orlando Magic  has seen them playing with a hang over in two straight games which resulted in ulgy DD losses. In  Saturday's loss vs Milwaukee, the Magic shot 32.7 percent (33 of 101) and in their three double-digit losses, they are shooting 33.9 percent (112 of 281) and overall they are shooting 41.2 percent, which is among the bottom feeders in percentages in the league. Meanwhile, the Sacramento Kings are in a rhythm and have now won three straight games and must be respected in the underdog role here today in their current form. 

ORLANDO is 5-16 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.ORLANDO is 9-22 ATS  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.ORLANDO is 4-15 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

NBA  team vs the money line (SACRAMENTO) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 51-7 SU for a 88% conversion rate dating back 22 seasons. 

NBA Favorites (ORLANDO) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 15-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

LeBron James  and company enter this game playing inconsistently, one night they look like possible championship contenders and than on others they simply don't as their 2-4 record might indicate.  When James was with the Cavaliers the same type of efforts became common place, as the team did not play a system, and rather just lived and died off the energy of the Great one. Prior to their loss to the Spurs on the road last time out, James had a Triple , double, and has now averaged 27.3 ppg on the season. Tonight Im betting on the super star rebounding and leading his team to victory vs  a side that could easily find themselves distracted by the Jimmy Butler trade rumours. 

Minnesota is 0-4 ATS L/4 vs Western Conference.

NBA team vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better  on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 51-6 L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 26-3 L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

Two undefeated 6-0 teams with new HCs go head to head tonight, but Im betting home court advantage will be the ultimate difference maker as Milwaukee behind Giannis Antetokoumpo and the  chemistry stable group of Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton are currently in break neck form. I know the Raptors must be respected behind Kawhi Leonard and talented group, but after watching both teams play, I like the way the Bucks matchup against the Raptors and recommend we go on the take with Milwaukee. A 

TORONTO is 44-71 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins . 

Bucks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Raptors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.Raptors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 29-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 22-3 SU L/5 seasons for a89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 31-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more are 2-26 SU for a go against  93% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

After a slow start to their campaign the mighty Golden State Warriors have really been a groove and smashed their L/3 opponents by DDs. I know their hosts the Brooklyn Nets are far from being as talented as the visitors, but the scheduling of this tilt does Im betting give them an advantage as the Warriors could be using this game as a rest stop as they prepare to embark  on a exhausting 3 games in four night road excursion right after tonights game starting in Chicago. Right now Steve Kerrs group feel pretty good about themselves, and I doubt they will outright overlook their opponents, but what Im betting they will do, is be in energy reserving mode. One last thing, Steve Kerr has said he happy with the golden crews performance of late, but has some issues with their lack of defensive play, and they could use this tilt to get back into a more pressure oriented defensive mode of hoops which will slow this game down, and in turn give Brooklyn a team that is last in the league in pace to play a speed that suits their style of play , and gives them a much better chance at covering the number.

Warriors are 5-11 ATS L/16 vs the Nets as visitors. 

BROOKLYN is 14-3 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons.Kerr is 13-26 ATS  against Atlantic division opponents as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

NBA Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, good team from last season who won 60% to 75% of their games are 3-22 ATS L/22 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

A lot of pundits are looking at this game as a easy win for the incoming Lakers behind LeBron James and company, especially after the headlines the Great One made by registering  his triple , double last time out. However, Im not in that corner, and believe HC Popovich has the ability  to mold  this team into a system that has made the Spurs one of the best defensive teams in the NBA , and right their current ship quickly. I know that has not been the case so far, but Im a big believer in Popovich and his abilities. With that said, tonight Im betting the Spurs will have success on their own home floor against a side, that does not have any implemented system, other than following the energy of James. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher have failed to win 19 of the L/26 opportunities. 

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 

Milwaukee 5-0 on the season behind Giannis Antetounmpo and his explosive offensive side kick Middleton make up one of the  NBA's top tier of young duo of stars . Under new HC Mike Budenholzer this team is finally showing consistency and swagger. You can feel it , the Bucks are for real as long as this duo can stay healthy. The Bucks  lead the league in 3-point conversions  (16.0) and attempts (41.8) per game and are clicking at a 38.3 percent clip, good for ninth in the league. Tonight against a Orland side, allowing an average of 12.6 made 3-pointers on 32.4 attempts, I expect the over powering down town action to continue and for the Bucks to cruise to victory and more importantly a cover. 

NBA Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - up-tempo team averaging 83 or more shots/game on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or lesser 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

The Heat have been plagued by injuries early this season but Im not sure thats been a a bad thing, as from the  rubble of all those  injuries, has emerged some top tier talent as shooting guard Josh Richardson (19.3) has stepped up as Miami's leading scorer as well as  McGruder who is averaging 16.5 points. It might not look like it but this Heat team must still be respected here on their own home floor. With the Blazers on tired legs as they prepare to play their 4 th game in 7 days, Im betting we have value taking a fresher team. Also look for Heat All-Star point guard Goran Dragic to spend a lot of his efforts successfully corralling Blazers star Lillard. 

PORTLAND is 5-17 ATS after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 51-9 L/5 seasons SU for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Miami to cover

Both these teams according to my power rankings are fairly evenly matched, with an obligatory 3 to 4 point home court advantage thrown in, we have an edge on the line in what under most circumstances should result in a closely contested affair.This  makes getting points golden in my humble opinion. Look for both teams to continue to struggle defensively and for both sides to center their attack around their perspective young stars,  Chicago's Wendell Carter Jr., the team's first-round pick from Duke, and Atlanta's Trae Young. The difference maker tonight however, Im betting comes on the back of veteran  Zach LaVine, who averages 32.3 points and leads the Bulls in points. Hard fought battle here = taking points. 

ATLANTA is 30-49 ATS L/79 in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% or less ).CHICAGO is 16-4 ATS  against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites (ATLANTA) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

The Kings won last time out and played good defence in  a winning 97-92 effort vs Memphis, but previous to that the Kings allowed their  first four opponents to average 129.5 points  . Meanwhile, the visiting Washington Wizards are playing all out take no prisoners run and gun basketball, and have an edge playing that type of ball vs a team like Sacramento according to my power rankings.  It looks like a laying a little lumber on the road, here in the early part of the season, is worth the roll, considering how wide open a lot of NBA games have been this season. This league like a lot of others is changing towards high scoring entertainment. Key word entertainment, and I must make myself aware of this and think and reaches my handicapping techniques on the fly. Used to be a time when laying lumber with a team with the Wizards would not be a option for me, but now, at least for now,  until the smoke clears, and a steady stream of stats becomes accessible and plausible I'm saying Lay it folks. 

Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 33-1SU and 17-0 L/3 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by an average of 12.9 ppg. 

NBARoad favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 22-4 ATS L/5 seasons  for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

The Denver Nuggets are playing top tier basketball to start their season, as is evident by their 4-0 record behind a defence that is allowing just 99.8 ppg. The Nuggets are just one of two teams keeping opponents under the century mark the other is the Celtics. So needless to say they deserve our respect, and the lines makers agree with the obvious assessments. Meanwhile, the Lakers look disorientated and banged up recording a 1-3 record, after getting their first win vs the Suns last time out. The Nuggets have already won at Staples Center this season, recording  a 107-98 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers on Oct. 17. They followed that win up by sweeping a three-game homestand, including a middle game victory against the Golden State Warriors, the defending NBA champions. I know LeBron James is a dangerous component to have to face in enemy territory but in their current form the Nuggets looks capable of doing so in a positive fashion. Im not a big proponent of road chalk, at above 3.5 points , but this line looks beatable and thus Ill recommend we take the matchup edge and lay the short lumber. 

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 38-12 ATS L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBAHome underdogs vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 30-95 SU L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate SU with he point differential clicking in at 5.1 ppg. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

The Grizzlies  are off a dismal season , garnering  60 losses , but  with the often injured Conely back in the lineup they looked good in their  two-game Western swing pulling off a  a 92-84 upset victory at Utah on Monday night. Despite of the Grizzlies impressive win, Im not going to get to caught up in that early season performance, and instead focus on their overall makeup. Yes, the Grizzlies have some talent, but their are some flaws as well, as was thecae in a ugly DD loss to Indian in their season opener, and Im not ready to accept them as road favs just yet, especially vs a under rated  Sacramento team that deserves respect after taking out Oklahoma City 131-120 in their 3rd game of the season. Look for former Grizzlies castoff  veteran Zach Randolph to be pumped to play his old team today and show them that he still has some gas left in the tank. I like the Kings to cover here and won't be surprised if they grab a SU win.

MEMPHIS is 18-34 ATS  when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 31-14 ATS L/45 in home games versus excellent foul drawing teams - attempting  30 or more  free throws/game.

NBA  team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 15+ losses in last 20 games are 9-33 L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors with a a point differential clicking at 7 ppg. 

NBA Favorites (MEMPHIS) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Sacramento  to cover 

Tonight we have two banged up teams with a boatload full of injuries. From a matchup perspective from who is expected to play tonight, I like the Knicks group to be able to cover the number behind  leading scorer Tim Hardaway Jr. (27.0), and  very under rated Knicks center Enes Kanter  who is averaging a double-double (19.0 points, 12.3 rebounds), and speedy point guard Trey Burke who leads the Knicks  in assists (5.3) and ranks third in scoring (13.3). NYK have covered 3 of their L/4 meetings in Miami and get the nod again in this spot. 

NBA ome favorites (MIAMI) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 30-60 ATS L/22 seasons.

NBA  team vs the money line (MIAMI) - terrible shooting team (41.5% or less ) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good pressure defensive team (16.5 TO's or more ) are 35-85 SU L/22 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors with he average point differential clicking in at 5.8 ppg. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Atlanta  and their high-scoring rookie Trae Young  prepare to play their first home game of the season at State Farm Arena when the Atlanta Hawks host the Dallas Mavericks this Wednesday. The Mavericks (2-1) have won two straight games, with rookie Luka Doncic averaging 18.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists, but things won't come so easily here on the road vs a Hawks team that owns a  4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings against the Mavericks. I know both sides have different cogs in their line now, but my early season power rankings suggest the Hawks must not be underestimated on their own home floor. Both have taken part in some high scoring affairs as has been common place earlier this season, but from a stats chart I keep on possession time/pace and shot percentage performance I like the Hawks in this spot. 

Dallas : PTS/G: 118.3 (9th of 30) Opp PTS/G: 122.0 (25th of 30)

SRS: -13.63 (28th of 30) Pace: 100.2 (20th of 30)

Off Rtg: 118.1 (4th of 30) Def Rtg: 121.8 (28th of 30)

Atlanta : PTS/G: 119.0 (6th of 30) Opp PTS/G: 122.7 (26th of 30)

SRS: -10.14 (26th of 30) Pace: 108.4 (1st of 30)

Off Rtg: 109.8 (16th of 30) Def Rtg: 113.1 (20th of 30)

DALLAS is 2-12 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons

DALLAS is 2-12 ATS  versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and is 8-19 ATS  versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Favorites (DALLAS) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are just 13-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% go against conversion are for bettors.

NBAteam vs the money line (DALLAS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 12+ losses in last 15 games are 3-24 L/22 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

The Pelicans are looking explosive out of the gate to start their season, and are off back to back  DD blowout wins. They have also been money makers for their backers since late last season cashing 14 of their L/16 games overall and have been good bets at home cashing 11 of their L/14 ( NO 115  Opp  107.1)  Needless to say this an explosive team that must be respected.  Meanwhile, the Clippers 2-1 after starting their season with three straight home games now go on the road and I'm betting won't find the bayou atmosphere so welcoming. I admit the Clippers have looked cohesive despite of going through a retooling process , and can't be discounted as viable opponent, but Im betting they will be over matched here vs a Pelicans team that plays a break neck pace. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more are 17-86 L/22 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% SU with the average point differential clicking in at 9.1 ppg.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The NBA season started with a lot off fast paced games as the exuberance of a new season on fresh legs made for for some high scoring affairs. Now with a few games under them, I expect the league as a whole to start to centre some thought on playing a more energy saving type of hoops.

Focusing on these two teams  the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors  in particular it must be noted that they have now played 3 games in less in 5 days so running and gunning at full tilt for long stretches may not be sensible option  tonight if the coaches of these teams hope to keep their troops fresh during what can be a gruelling extended schedule. Also knowing the Raptors current mind set about playing a more disciplined defensive style this season behind the leagues top two way forward Kawhi Leonard, it makes a lot of sense that they will be out to slow down a Hornets team that looks to be in an offensive groove at the moment, with a more methodical approach. 

My own projections for this game suggest a maximum combined total of 220 points being scored, and with a 6 point edge according to my own numbers I feel like we have enough value to take the under here.  Also from an extensive data base of league wide trends no average combined total from a 2000 games sample size went above my 220 point projections. While new  data can change in the flash of an eye and nothing is a sure bet, I still feel we have an edge on this slightly bloated Total. Its all about slight edges in our battle with the books and their astute line making abilities.

From the six combined games these teams have played only one has seen more than 225 points scored, and that was the Raptors 117-113 win vs Washington. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 105 points or more are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

These 2-0 teams will go head to head tonight in the mile high city, with Denver Im betting having an edge on the line and could easily pullout the SU upset. Golden State has already played hard fought games vs Oklahoma State and Utah, and could have problems up here in the thin air of the Rockies as this game progresses after those two previous physical battles. I know  Denver played last night, but their a very well conditioned team, and won't have any problems keeping up here .

GOLDEN STATE is 29-42 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

The Nuggets beat the two-time champs twice last year, and  have beaten Golden State five times in the Steve Kerr era. Several Warriors have a history of struggling at Denver, including Durant, who has made just 36 of 106 (34.0 percent) 3-pointers in 19 career games at Denver, and Klay Thompson, who has never score more than 21 points in any of his 11 visits to the Pepsi Center.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 34-5 L/5 seasons for a 87% SU conversion rate making this viable trend when looking at an ATS edge. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

Tonight Dallas has their home opener against a very good Minnesota team, but Im betting they will be up to the task off being very competitive and getting us the cover even though their without Harrison Barnes. I'm also not reading to much into their loss vs the Suns in their opener as Phoenix is a much better team than people realize at this point in the season. I also expect newly acquired Euro star Doncic to be primed to play a big game in front of Mark Cuban and the Mavs fans tonight . This top tier player is acclimating much faster to the NBAs physical game than I anticipated and  is really impressive and can easily control a games tempo. Look for his teammates and fans to feed off his energy tonight and make this an electric environment. 

 DALLAS is 14-4 ATS in home games against Northwest division opponents.DALLAS is 29-15 ATS  after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.Carlisle is 30-12 ATS  off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more as the coach of DALLAS. 

NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 27-4 SU L/22 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Dallas to cover 

The line has moved off the opener of -2.5 and and rightly so and Im betting we have value here backing the new small ball Detroit Pistons right up to -4.  The Pistons won their first game of the season against the Brooklyn Nets 103-100 behind Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond despite of being a little short handed with two starters out. The Pistons found a way to hold the fort and  win was a positive sign in the midst of plenty of teachable moments, Casey told reporters Thursday. Pistons now coached by Dwane Casey are a fast team,  that works the inside well and hold key matchup problems for teams like the Chicago Bulls that are off a 127-108 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday. Note NBA Road favorites  (DETROIT) - off a close home win by 3 points or less are 48-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin point differential coming by 8.5 ppg. 

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Raptors come into this game in a letdown situation as they visit the Washington Wizards Saturday night after a  113-101 win over the preseason Eastern Conference favorite Boston Celtics. They will now be at a disadvantage vs a Washington side off a loss in their home opener to Miami 113-112 and that   will now be out looking for redemption against what could be an Eastern Conference front runner. Actually Torontos top tier projections centre on whether the often injured Kawhi Leonard remains healthy enough to stay in the lineup . He has missed an average of 30% of his games during his career and already missed to play off runs.

Tonight Im betting for Wizards star Bradely Beal to lead the way for the Wizards . He has thrived vs the Raptorsin the recent past and had 38 points in their first meeting of the season last year and two more 30-plus nights in the playoffs.Saturday's game is a rematch of last season's Eastern Conference first-round playoff series in which the Raptors eliminated the Wizards in six games.REVENGE on board for the  home team.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more are 21-4 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington to cover 

Whether Russel Westbrook plays or not tonight, for the Thunder, I still like the home team the LA Clippers to come out on top. Westbrook after under going what has been described a minor knee procedure  is probably less than 100% despite of being rushed on the court for his first game. I know the media is buzzing about what a great D, the Thunder will have this season, but the Clippers are also deep with defensive talent despite of this being a transition season for them. Both teams lost their openers but the Thunder worked harder than the Clippers in their loss to the Warriors in game 1  and could feel a bit of an emotional letdown, vs a energized Clippers side that has a chance to redeem itself in this their 2nd home game of the season. Clippers HC Rivers is 11-2 ATS  in home games when playing against a team (Win Pct. 25% or less)

OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-27 ATS  after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the LA Clippers to win 

The Milwaukee Bucks by new HC  Mike Budenholzer  barley got by the Charlotte Hornets by one point in their first game of the season. But their was some troubling stat lines that tell me not all is well in Milwaukee despite of a talented roster. In that above mentioned win the Bucks  committed 21 turnovers and  blew a  20-point lead . Add to that they allowed the Hornets to shoot 42.1 percent from beyond the arc (44.6 percent overall). That is not a recipe for success against a very under rated Indiana Pacers side that is deep and can light the word up in a hurry, while also playing top tier defence.Indiana opened its season with a easily handling Memphis 111-83 on Wednesday night and look like viable underdogs in this spot. Indiana has won the L/3 meetings in this series, and gets the nod again in this spot play. 

Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.Pacers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA CentralBucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to coverBucks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games.Bucks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 

Looking at last years matchups in this series , The Kings beat the Pelicans, 116-109 in overtime and 114-101, in New Orleans while the Pelicans prevailed in both games in Sacramento, 114-106 and 114-101. Im expecting a similar type combed score here tonight. I know both teams put up a boatload full of points in wide open tilts last time out, but a more muted effort after exerting that much energy  and converting at such a high level is a above average probability occurrence in this spot. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, team that had a winning record last season are 27-6  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking at 204 ppg. Also From an extensive data base of more than 2000 games played in the invoicing the Pelicans and other NBA teams the average of tonights  score in similar multiple trends situations is in range between 217 and 224 ppg. So despite of their being no obvious guarantees their still is evidence of this number being slightly bloated thus giving us value.

Play UNDER 

Two rebuilding teams continue their  rivalry  tonight as the  New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets do battle in the big apple. Both look evenly matched and I consider this type of game a neutral court event, thus getting points with the Knicks looks like a viable wagering opportunity despite of them playing without key player Kristaps Porzingis. With Tim Hardaway Jr., getting more touches because of Porzingis absence Im betting the Knicks will be a handful for the Nets and have an edge. Add to that the Nets are pretty banged up with  and maybe without Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (left adductor), DeMarre Carroll (right ankle surgery), Allen Crabbe (left ankle sprain) and Shabazz Napier (strained right hamstring) who all missed the first game.The Knicks swept the season series by an average of 14.8 points, getting all four wins before Porzingis was lost, but believe they still offer up a lot of bad matchups even with him gone. 

NBA Favorites (BROOKLYN) - bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games are 10-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the New York Knicks to cover 

The Magic opened up with a 104-101 victory over the Miami Heat, getting the W despite not making a field goal for the final 4 1/2 minutes and after trailing by 14 in the first quarter , telling us  yes small miracles sometimes happen. Im betting in their followup tilt they will not be so fortunate vs a decent looking Hornets squad that despite of a loss in their first game , almost came back from 20 point deficit thanks to some fast paced small ball. According to my team vs team power rankings and matchups the Magic do matchup well vs this type of opposition. Charlotte has won 14 of the last 18 meetings and 4 straight and 10 of its last 12 trips to Orlando and get the nod again in this spot to cover the number. 

 ORLANDO is 9-22 ATS after a division game over the last 3 seasons.

A long term NBA trend shows Home underdogs (ORLANDO) - off a close home win by 3 points or less are a bad bet as these teams are just 123-191 ATS L/21 seasons for go against 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

The Miami Heat enter this tilt vs the their hosts the Washington Wizards on tired legs after playing last night and garnering a hard fought 104-101 loss vs long time instate rivals the Orlando Magic. Im betting things won't get much better , as the Heat are banged up and were shorthanded last night  without James Johnson (sports hernia), Dion Waiters (left ankle), Wayne Ellington (left ankle), and Justise Winslow (right hamstring), and they are expected to miss Thursday's game as well. Look for Washington to be primed to get things rolling in the right direction on opening night behind four key returning starters John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr. and Markieff Morris and possibly newly acquired with the hobbled Dwight Howard, who averaged 16.6 points and 12.5 rebounds last season with Charlotte.

NBA Underdogs (MIAMI) - off a close road loss of 3 points or less, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 3-25 ATS in their follow up game since 1996 for a longterm go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road underdogs (MIAMI) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Wizards to cover 

I don't have a lot of perceived early season expectations for both of these teams and both  are on my wait  and see list, with a dozen other sides. One thing Im sure of though is that. Suns first round pick 7'1 center Deandre Ayton will be a key contributor to the Suns successes or failures going forward.  However, from a head to head matchup comparison, I like the Suns chances of victory as shot home chalk, as Dallas will be without their  injured star big man Nowitzki and also small forward Harrison Barnes.  Overall the Mavs don't inspire me considering their current  lineup and expect Euro star acquisition Doncic to take time to acclimated the physical NBA style of play.  From a matchup perspective based on my  my early season power rankings charts, and the fact that key Suns guard  previously injured Devon Booker is expected to play tonight the Suns look like viable choices here at home. Add to that   recent  meetings  that have proven my head to head synopsis correct show the Suns winning all  3 meetings last season SU, including the L/5 meetings overall.DALLAS is 2-11 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover 

Indiana towards the end of late season, really started to jell as a team, and went into the play offs with a full head of steam, giving the Cleveland Cavaliers all they could handle before folding. Im betting that post season experience will help this team ascend to even higher heights this season. Add to that last seasons entire starting lineup returns intact including the explosive  Oladipo  and a deep bench with the likes of Sabonis , Joseph , McDermott and Quinn as well as first round picks Leaf and Aaron Holiday and you have a dangerous deep team to back. 

Memphis also looks to be much better this season with Conely healthy again after playing only 12 games last season. But unfortunately for the Grizzlies they are going up against what my early season lean suggests is the superior side on this home chalk line. 

INDIANA is 19-8 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Indiana 110.1 Opposition 101.4

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) - in non-conference games, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers are 37-5 SU L/5 seasons for 88% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 10.5 ppg. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

The public with a little bit of irrational exuberance  has hit this game hard to go over on the opening Total. However, I myself am expecting  a more constrained defensive effort from both teams as the game progresses despite of this being the opening game of the season on prime time tv. Both teams were ranked top 5 in overall efficiency and overall defensive stats last season, and both were proficient in limiting FG to under 50%. 

Looking at the Boston Celtics they are now introducing two new cogs into their lineup and it may slow them to an extent as Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward come back from injuries. Im betting both despite of being big time scorers  take time to  acclimated to the speed of the game  after being off for extended periods of time and it  will take time before they become more cohesive and  jell with their team-mates. Add to that the Sixers usually play at a much faster pace, so the Celtics who had a 102.9 defensive rating at home last season, will primed to slow these guys down as much as possible, in order to throw them out of rhythm and control the pace to their liking. Last years play off experience Im betting pays off here this evening. 

BOSTON L/62 games when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 201.3 ppg go on the board. 

These teams went under in 3 of 4 meetings last season. The one that did go over was on neutral court in London England. 

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GS leads 3-0

There is a story from Greek mythology about Narcissus a man who fell in love with himself after looking into a pool of water. Now in a tongue and cheek manner, I expect  King LeBron James  a self confessed narcissist  , to be hell bent on getting his limelight back after Golden States super star  Durant took it away from him  in game 4 of this series. Don't take me wrong LeBron James is arguably  the best hoops player and overall athlete of this generation, and I respect his talent greatly , so I'm not trying to be make derogatory comments about him. But if you ever listen to him you will come to the conclusion he's in love with himself, and like all great players carries around a huge ego.  I'm betting that  behemoth ego will be a motivating factor into making sure his team does not go down without a fight. I'm not saying it will be enough for a Cleveland victory, but a cover in my humble opinion is a very viable wagering option here this evening in front of the Cleveland faithful.

Golden St  is 0-14 ATS off a game as a road chalk when Durant shot better than 34.5% and was their high-scorer. The Cavs have covered 8 straight times  at home by more than 10 ppg  with rest off a loss as a home dog when they lost three straight vs current opponent and are a perfect  6-0 ATS L/6  as a dog when out looking for same season revenge for a home defeat.

GOLDEN STATE is 11-20 ATS off a road win this season and 10-21 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.Warriors are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 1 days rest.Warriors are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.

NBA team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more  of their shots against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 24-34 SU L/5 seasons for a less than viable bet.

Play on Cleveland to cover

A lot has been said, about how amazing  LeBron James is. After all the Cavs don't run a system, they run on LeBrons whims and moods, and of his course his emmense talent, so his team mates are almost always unbalanced and don't know what to expect, making them fade material against this type of opponent.  The  media continually extolls his greatness to the NBA masses, and centers most of its attention on him. The Warriors offensive explosiveness however, is taking a back seat to the LeBron show in the media ,  and little has been mentioned about the  way the Dubs can go from partaking in a close game to almost magically turning a confrontation into a route within a few minutes. I'm starting  to feel the defending NBA champs are feeling a little disrespected ,  and will be out to show the world that this is a team sport and not a one man show.  I'm betting the Golden State Warriors make a statement here this evening in game 3 of this series, and put a pivotal nail in the coffin of  Cavaliers championship hopes tonight right in front of  the Cleveland faithful .

CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS  after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season losing by more than 5 ppg.

NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 3-38 L/5 seasons with the combined average margin of defeat coming by 8.5 ppg which solidifies my thoughts on whether the Warriors can cover.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are a long term good bet going 155-86 for a 64% conversion rate dating back 21 seasons.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - Golden St. leads 1-0

Both sides actually played decent defense in game 1 in an intense affair, where LeBron James stood tall as the Cavaliers top scorer and two way threat. The Cavs played well and still lost, so now I'm expecting the Cavs to take a no prisoners nothing to lose attitude and go balls to the walls in an all out  attack mode here ere in game 2 .  I'm also  betting defense takes a  back seat and instead an all out offensive explosion based on a fast transitional game to be the this agenda. Note: Cleveland  has gone OVER 6 straight times as a underdog off a game as a pup where  Lebron James was the high scorer, eclipsing the number by an average of 18 ppg with the total combined score clicking at 239+ ppg. Meanwhile, the Warriors  have gone over 8 straight times by more than 14 ppg with more than one day of rest off a 10 plus point victory  as   home chalk when facing a team they have beaten at least two straight times.

CLEVELAND is 30-17 OVER   off a road loss over the last couple of  seasons with a combined average score of 221 ppg getting scored.CLEVELAND is 17-8 OVER   after allowing 115 points or more this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 60-24 OVER  L/21 years for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, playing with 2 days rest are 26-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1


This series very much favors the Golden State Warriors. The Cavs have shown a lot of weaknesses in these play offs, and the Warriors with a championship now clearly in sight will come at the Cavaliers with a take no prisoners attitude . The biggest weakness for the Cavaliers has been their defense this season, and I'm expecting we see the Dubs No.1 ranked offense to really show us how explosive they are here tonight. Note: Cleveland is ranked 29th in the NBA Defensive effecnicy rating ( 111.9) .

The Cavaliers no. 5 ranked offense (110.9 ppg) behind LeBron James will have no choice but to answer back or be blown off the court in humiliating fashion, which I'm betting will contribute to this combined score easily eclipsing this total.

Over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 NBA Championship games.Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 NBA Championship games.

The Cavs have gone over 8 straight times as a 7+ point dog with two-plus days rest when facing a side that beat them two straight times, going over by an average of more than 15 ppg. The Warriors have gone OVER in 6 straight times by an average of 16.5 ppg with more than one day of rest off a road victory in a road game facing an opponent averaging fewer than four blocks per game.

CLEVELAND is 31-14 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220+ ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATEs L/69 home games as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points have seen a combined average score of 222.7 ppg scored. Five of the L/6 times these teams have met have seen this Totals number eclipsed.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND/GOLDEN STATE ) - in the 1rst game of a playoff series 28--8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 219.4 ppg going on the board.

Play OVER

Game 7 - Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets (Tied 3-3)

Since this series started I have stated that it would be won by the best defense, and not the explosive offenses these teams have exhibited all season long. For the most part both teams have done a tremendous job of slowing each other down and the games have consistently stayed on the low side of the total and I'm betting nothing changes tonight. It must be noted that Golden State have only played two tilts all season in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted and they came during this series. Meanwhile, the Rockets have played only five contests this season where they have had fewer than 14 assists. Three of the five have happened during this series. These teams tell a story about the consistency of both these under rated defenses.

The Rockets have gone under 13 straight times at home off a game as a underdog going against an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game staying under by almost 18 ppg. The Warriors have gone under 7 straight times with less than five days rest after a game in which they had three-plus players with twenty-plus points going under by an average of 13.7 ppg.

Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 Conference Finals games.Under is 16-5 in Rockets last 21 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 35-16 in Rockets last 51 vs. Western Conference.Under is 34-16-1 in Rockets last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.



Under is 5-1 in Warriors' last 6 road games.
Under is 16-5 in Rockets' last 21 vs. NBA Pacific.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Conference Finals games.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 92-49 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more are 83-46 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

I'm betting this deciding game 7 will be an all out nasty physical affair that stays on the low side of the number. Boston will be out to pressure James and with Love out with an injury  concentrate on making the super stars life miserable.  In this series, James has averaged 39 points per game at home, 27.7 per in the three games in Boston, which is more than 11 ppg less. .Cleveland's veteran core has struggled with their offensive game in Boston and the defense I expect to be ready to compete in what should be an all out hard-core defensive tit for tat punchem out  battle.  note: BOSTON is 12-3 UNDER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over dating back to last season with the average combined score of 195.3 ppg scored. The Celtics have also gone UNDER 8 straight times, when the line is within 3 of pick off a defeat as an away dog when going against  an opponent averaging less than 4 blocks per game, staying under by more than 20 ppg.

Also the Celtics  have  gone under 8 straight times by more than 14 points  off a game as a underdog in which they scored less than 15% of their points from free throws .Meanwhile,  Cleveland has gone under 9 straight times as a pup off a win as a home chalk  in which their opposition shot under 60% from the free throw line. Shooting badly from the charity stripe is sometimes related to exhaustion issues , which both sides will exhibit here this evening and this will also contribute to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers might expect.

Under is 4-1 in the L/5 meetings here in Boston. Cleveland has gone under in 15 of their 21 after an ATS win which happened in game 6.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - HOU Leads 3-2

This series is becoming intense and defense and not offense I'm betting will win this series. Golden State needs this game badly, or a surprising elimination from the post season will be on tomorrows media agenda. With that said, you can bet the Dubs will come out with all guns blazing, but the Rockets under rated D, will be primed to slow them down. On the other end of the court , Houston 's offense has been sputtering , and James Harden is slumping offensively and Chris Paul is out, so great deal of emphasis for the Rockets will center on their defense. Under the total is my call this evening.

 Golden State has gone under 16 straight times  as a rested favorite of at least five points when they are off a game in which they rebounded 15% or less of their own misses. Houston  has gone UNDER 11 straight times by an average of more than 13 ppg after a game with 8+ lead changes and has stayed under 8 straight times by more than 17.6 ppg with less than two days rest off a home win when they are facing a side that is averaging more than five blocks per game.

HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with the combined average score of 201.2 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined score of  203.9 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 34-18 UNDER   in home games in all playoff games since 1996 with t combined average of 205.8 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 48-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2


The young legs of the Boston Celtics and the top tier coaching of Brad Stevens, is having a huge impact on the Cleveland Cavaliers, who for the most part are the superior team on paper, but the least consistent, and tired looking of the two teams at the moment. The Celtics are just wearing the Cavaliers down, now with a bigger lineup, and even though I expect LeBron to come out and once again put on a show I'm betting it won't be enough to the Cavs a cover tonight. At the outset of this series, I thought the Cavaliers just had to much talent, for the young Celtics , but Stevens has assembled a special hardworking team, and their capable of an outright upset vs a Cavaliers side that is showing its age, and mental wear an tear of recent play off failures . I'm also remembering the game 7 tilt where they barely got by the Pacers and are lucky to be here. With that said, lets take the points with the Celtics .

CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 6-20 ATS after scoring 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 8-24 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. BOSTON is 11-3 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents this season.BOSTON is 31-18 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season and v is 38-17 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 23-10 ATS as an underdog this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 0-20 ATS failing to cover by just under 9 ppg with rest off a 10+ loss as a dog when they are facing a team that is drawing an average of less than 20.25 fouls per game.Cleveland is 0-17 ATS failing to cover by an average of 10.5 ppg at home off a road game in which Lebron scored at least 14 points fewer than he did in their previous game.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-

This is a big game, and neither of these teams want to make mistakes here. With that said, I'm betting on a methodical and  very physical game especially from the Celtics as they look to slow down the Cavaliers sometimes explosive offensive attack via newly implemented bigger lineup. But don't underestimate the Cavs ability to push back and push back hard as is evident by the following trends.Cleveland have gone under 16 straight times  with less than two days rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field. In their last eight tilts  under those perimeters the Cavaliers have  allowed an average of just  90.9 ppg. 

BOSTON is 16-4 UNDER  in the 6th game of a playoff series since 1996 with the average combined score clicking in at 182.4 ppg. Boston has gone UNDER 10 straight times by an average of more 12 ppg  as a dog with rest after a game as a home favorite in which they scored a least 18 fast break points .

Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a straight up loss. Under is 11-4 in Cavaliers last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after scoring 90 points or less are 87-48 UNDER L/21 seasons for 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

 Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The last two meetings in this series have stayed under by more than 20 points. At the start of this series I suggested that the series would be won by the team that exhibited the best ability to control the others explosive offense. I'm expecting both sides to be physical tonight when defending and for them to move the ball around a lot when in the offensive end , which will result in a lot of clock eating taking place which I'm betting will result in a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers are obviously expecting. 
  
 The  Rockets have gone under 12 straight times with rest off a victory as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field,  and have gone under 13 straight times at home    when the line is within 3 of pick after a win in which they made fewer field goals than their opponent. 
  Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone under 8 straight times with less than two days rest off a loss as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

HOUSTON is 15-4 UNDER  versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less  free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 201.7 ppg going on the board.HOUSTON is 21-8 UNDER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14  or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 209.2 ppg. HOUSTON is 13-3 UNDER  after a win by 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg getting scored. Houston's HC D'Antoni is 30-6 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 212.6 ppg scored.

Golden States HC Kerr is 18-5 UNDER  L/23 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more with the combined average score clicking in at 209.6 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 27-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play UNDER
  
 
  
 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Cleveland had a hard time finding their scoring touch in the first two games of this series, here in Boston, but I'm betting they solved their offensive  problems and the way Celtics HC Stevens was playing them. With that said, I now expect the Cavs to continue with a cohesive attack, and for the Celtics to come back with some offensive fire works of their own here in their own building, where they play their best hoops,  in a tilt I have pegged to go over the number.  Note: Cleveland has seen a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored on the road this season while the Celtics have seen a combined average of 206.5 ppg scored on their won home court. I'm betting on the combined score to fall in between these to totals parameters tonight. Note: BOSTON is 15-4 OVER when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game this season with the combined average score clicking in at 208.8 ppg.

The Cavaliers have gone OVER 15 straight times by more than 18 ppg  with rest off a home game when their last four games are L-L-W-W and their opponent is off a loss. The Celtics have gone OVER 17 straight times  off a loss in which they had a basket-assisted percentage (BAP) of 80% or less, and at least nine percentage points higher than their opponent's BAP.

BOSTON is 22-10 OVER   in home games versus below defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 221.7 ppg going on the board.BOSTON is 14-4 OVER   in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 214.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1

Golden State is an 8 to 8.5-point favorite in Game 4. The betting line  I'm betting is very beatable based on past performances by the Warriors at home in Oakland, California

.Since Kevin Durant came over to the  Warriors via free agency, Golden State has gone 16-0 in home playoff games,  with the average margin of victory coming by an astonishing 17.1 points per game. The team is 7-0 at Oracle Arena in their years play offs with four  of the victories coming by DDs and six wins by eight points or more. Some thought that the Rockets might make a series of this after a surprising game 2 win , but that woke the Warriors up and now their on the war path . With that said, the Warriors once again get the nod here to cover on this line  in front of the own fans.  The Rockets are 22-7 ATS L/29 at home vs a team with a .600 record or better.

GOLDEN STATE is 19-9 ATS   off a home blowout win by 20 points or more dating back to last season with the average margin of victory coming by 14.3 ppg. Kerr is 18-7 ATS   in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better) as the coach of GOLDEN STATE witht he average margin of victory coming by 14.9 ppg.

Rockets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. NBA Pacific.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 11-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 2-1

The Cavaliers finally pushed back physically in game 3 of this series, with a top tier defensive effort, that resulted in a 116-86 win and the guy that lead the way was surprisingly LeBron James , who played his best defensive tilt of the season and tossed in 27 points to boot. The Cavs put him up against Brown -- the Celtics' top player in the first two games of this series -- and Brown didn't even score until there was 8:20 left in the second quarter.I respect the Celtics , but I could feel a monumental shift taking place in that game, as the Cavaliers got their mojo back. I know the young Celtics are talking about rebounding, but after that clobbering, their mental state of underdog invincibility may have gone out the window. Stevens is already talking about lineup changes which could change the dynamic of the Celtics core, after that startling game 3 result.  With blood in the water , and the possibility of tying this game at 2 games a piece before going back to Boston for game 5 , you can bet James and company will be in top form and ready to put the hammer down vs a inexperienced group.

The Celtics are 0-6 ATS  L/6  failing to cover by more than 10 ppg with rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc.The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS L/8 covering by more than 12.38 ppg with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in which they shot 50% or better from beyond the arc.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 11-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0

I finally expecting for the Cavaliers to come out here in front of their own fans and leave everything on the floor as they make an effort to make a comeback in this series down 2-0. Last time out  James had 42 points for the Cavs,  and Love 22 ,but the rest of team looked old bored and worn out. Its not like they cant wake up as a group on occasion,  as was evident vs the Pacers and Raptors , because they can. With that said, tonight  I'm  now betting the Cavs as a whole  after that embarrassment  will be firing on all cylinders offensively and that they will force the Celtics into reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the court. My own projections estimate that both teams will hit the 105 point plateau. Note: BOSTON is 20-1 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season and CLEVELAND is 24-7 OVER  in home games when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game over the last few seasons and are 35-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season.

CLEVELAND is 21-12 OVER revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 16-6 OVER in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.9 ppg going on the board. CLEVELAND  in 20 games  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season have seen a combined average score of 216.8 ppg scored.

BOSTON is 22-11 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. BOSTON is 24-13 OVER L/37  versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored.

NBA  team (BOSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more are 49-22 OVER L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the OVER

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

 Golden State ratcheted up their D in game 1 and showed us how tough they really are. I cant bring myself to bet against the Dubs SU, no matter what the circumstances are if their completely healthy, which they are. Meanwhile, Houston must  also come out and play physical  D, if they have any chance of getting back into this series, which I also have my doubts about. What I am confident about is that this game will be more grinding then game one and much more physical. Houston owns the 6th ranked Defensive effecnicy in the league, and Golden State is very under rated from a defensive perspective but must be respected behind a boat load full of talent. Look for the Rockets to leave everything on the floor here and for Golden State to break the Rockets by  slowing  their opponents offensive flow down. This will result in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers are anticipating.

HOUSTON is 13-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with the combined average score  of 205.9 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER    in home games versus very good shooting teams - making  48% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 214 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 15-3  L/18 UNDER   in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%or better )  with a combined average of 207.3 ppg scored.

Golden State in their  27 games as a road underdog have seen a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 21-10 UNDER   after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.1 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 21-10 UNDER  off a road win this season with a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 UNDER    in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 214.6 ppg.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON/GOLDEN STATE ) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 114-98 L/5  UNDER seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

The Cavs looked rusty in game 1 of this series after a lengthy layoff after disposing of the Toronto Raptors in 4 straight games. Meanwhile, the Celtics after a 5 game series win vs Philadelphia  remained cohesive, after a short lay off. I liked the way the Cavs matched up vs the Celtics before game 1, and despite of being wrong about the outcome of that game I still like the Cavaliers on a pickem line in game 2.
From a neutral matchup perspective LeBron James remains the worlds top hoops player, and his supporting cast matches up well vs the Celtics and are on fresher legs than their Beantown opposition. I know Celtics coach Stevens is now a media darling and taking a lot of praise for his teams , successes , and in some respects deservedly so. But lets not crown the Celtics just yet, as their previous two series victories came against untested inexperienced teams with little recent play off successes. With that said, James and company offer up a whole different opponent, than the Celtics previous two sacrificial lambs. This is a championship calibre team, facing the prospect of going down 2-0 .  Needless to say this is a huge game for the Cavs, and you can bet James and Love AND the rest of the Cavaliers will be hell bent on avoiding a loss here, which gives me confidence for staying on the Cavs bandwagon.
One last thing, despite of the Celtics being pegged as a team that was built to harass James, it must be noted that harassing him, does not equate to being able to stop him from hurting you on the court.

Note: The Cavaliers are 13-0 SU/ATS L/13  as a  /pickem/favorite off a road game in which Lebron James played more than 39 minutes which happened last time out.
CLEVELAND is 51-27 ATS  L/78 when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days.
Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Road team is 8-2 ATS L/10 meetings . Cavs are 8-3 ATS L/11 visits to Boston.

NBA team (BOSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 22-51 ATS in the follow up the L/5 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 34-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland  Cavaliers to cover

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

These explosive offenses Golden State and Houston have been off for a while after clinching their play off series in quick order . This will I'm betting effect their overall flow and effect the total combined score. I'm also expecting defense to win this series and not offense. It must be noted that the Rockets rank 7th in in points allowed and 6th in defensive rating, and their 13th in PACE. Meanwhile, The Warriors, 11th in defensive rating, and must not be underestimated in their ability to clamp down behind a boatload full of talent. With that said, I am recommending we take an under stance here in game 1 on what during the regular season may have seemed like a legitimate total, but here in play off action with so much on the line, Defense will reign supreme and the number looks high.

HOUSTON is 12-1 UNDER  when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 14-3 UNDER  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or higher) with a combined average score of 206.2 ppg.GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 L/8 UNDER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average score of 217.8 ppg scored.

These teams have gone under in 5 of the L/6 meetings in Houston.. Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games..Under is 21-8-1 in Warriors last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 46-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 96-49 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1 

The young Boston Celtics played like grizzled veterans in their first two series vs two teams Milwaukee and Philadelphia who showed their inexperience. The Celtics  played physical athletic ball, and came out on top thanks to their grit and chemistry.  However, with that said, I'm betting the Celtics will  not have an answer for a well rested LeBron James and a talented play off tested Cavaliers , that has matched up well against this Beantown Hoops group in the recent past. With that said, I'm recommending we back Cleveland to come out on top in a game the lines-makers have pegged as a pickem.  It must be noted that Cleveland hammered the Celtics in Boston back on Feb 11 by a 121 -99 score, covering a 5 dogs and have won 4 of the L/5 meetings. ( I will watch this series closely, and possibly adjust my assessments based on game 1, but for now on this line the Cavs get the nod. ) 

CLEVELAND is 10-1 ATS L/11  off a home blowout win by 20 points or more . ( Cavs beat Toronto 128-93 in the last game of a 4 game series sweep)  

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG) or more against a average at best defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a huge blowout win by 30 or more are 28-3 L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.  NBA

Home underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 8-34 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  81% rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - BOS Leads 3-1

The Boston Celtics with 3-1 series lead are one win away from clinching the Eastern Conference finals for the second straight season when they host the Philadelphia 76ers this Wednesday night at the TD Center in Boston. The Celtics were the superior side in 3 of the 4 games, each time as an underdog and were head to head with the 76ers at the mid way point of the last game, before running out of gas in the 2nd half vs a desperate team, that exerted a lot of energy in that win. I'm betting the Celtics are fresher than their opponents after game 4, and will be very inspired here to end this series at home an avoid a dangerous game 6 situation. They are my choice in this tilt.

Note  NBA HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading Win/Win/Win/Loss: Game 5 record, NBA , Quarterfinals round: 16-3 (.842). Also HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1 @ Home /Home/Visitor/Visitor than Home : Game 5 record, NBA, Quarterfinals round: 52-13 (.800) HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWWL @ HHVV:Game 5 record, NBA, Quarterfinals round: 14-3 (.824).From a historical trending perspective the Celtics have an edge.

Leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Boston Celtics have a 26-0 series record.Trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1,the Philadelphia 76ers have a 0-14 series record. No NBA  team has ever rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series.

BOSTON is 10-0 ATS as a home underdog this season and is 9-0 ATS  as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season.BOSTON is 10-0 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season and is 7-0 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. Boston is 7-1 SU L/8 meetings here in Boston.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 165-104 ATS L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - GSW Leads 3-1

The explosive Golden State Warriors with a chance to clinch this series vs the New Orleans Pelicans will come out here with all guns blazing, and the Pelicans who can also score in bunches will have no other choice but to open up with some offensive fire works of their own or be blown of the court. This game either goes back and forth as both feed off each others energy, or the Warriors romp and the Pelicans chase. Which ever of these likely scenarios emerges , the end result I'm betting will see the combined score  eclipse this Total.  It must also be noted that both teams are well rested , 2 days off, which bodes well for a high energy run and gun affair.

My own projections estimate that both sides will score north of +105 points. GOLDEN STATE is 35-11 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average score of 234.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 52-14 OVER L/22 seasons  for a 79% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 232 ppg going on the board .

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - CLE Leads 3-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers have proven that they matchup very well against the Toronto Raptors as is evident by their commanding 3-0 series lead. The Raptors have done everything but win in the three games that have been played in this series and are now a deflated team. You could see it in game 1 when they lost 113-112 in OT after leading for much of that game, and than in game 3 when the king of basketball, LeBron James made a last second shot, and snatched victory away from a horrified and demoralized Dino's group.  With the Cavaliers now smelling blood in the water, and a chance to close out this series at home ,  I expect it will be them and not the Raptors that will come out here firing on all cylinders. I'm betting its party over for the Raptors. Note: When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-0, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a series record of 9-0 and a Game 4 record of 9-0. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-0, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 4 record of 0-2.

Cleveland has won 10 of the L/11 meetings in this series SU. Casey is 17-31 ATS   in all playoff games as the coach of TORONTO.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% are 48-8 L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 7.5 ppg.

NBA Underdogs (TORONTO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 15-52 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 3-0

Despite of the Boston Celtics 3-0 series, lead the lines-makers are barely adjusting their numbers on these play off matches with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixer's on paper are the superior team, but the Beantown hoops crew has the superior chemistry , girt and game plane to stifle a young group that may have not paced them selves properly in regular season play. Philadelphia  had a take no prisoners, pedal to the metal mindset for the 2nd half of the  season and the Sixer's because of this may have now run out of gas before hitting the proverbial finish line. Add to that the Celtics have matched up well vs teams like Philly all season long , making them viable underdogs for the 4th straight time in this series. While past results don't guarantee a continuation of occurrences, they must still be recognized and be respected. It sure as hell looks like the current version of the Celtics has the 76ers number, and until other wise proven wrong I'll grab the points.

BOSTON is 10-2 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season and is 14-3 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.BOSTON is 34-14 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots this season.

BOSTON is 13-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 L/6 SU at Philly.

BOSTON is 23-7 ATS  as an underdog this season and 16-6 ATS   as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.BOSTON is 14-2 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog this season and a perfect is 7-0 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS L/34 off a home loss .

NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a home loss against a division rival, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are just 11-28 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 2-1

Houston after a ugly/lazy effort in game 2 of this series at home, woke back up last time out, and bumped up their efforts by taking a DD win vs the Jazz in Salt Lake City. That victory was the Rockets 6th DD win in  their L/7 head to head matchups with the Jazz this season, which tells a story of  overall head to head dominance . I respect the Jazz and their work effort a lot, but with G Ricky Rubio out, their at a transitional  flow disadvantage, which means their in trouble vs a side like Houston that owns a under rated D, and explosive offense, that has yet to really show its best stuff so far during this post season. I expected the Jazz to show more grit in this series, and will be more aggressive today, but it just looks like their over matched and playing with desperation isn't always a point strength but a deterrent, as foul trouble most probably will rear its ugly head here if this tilt gets really physical . Note: Houston has consistently out performed the Jazz at the FT line this season, and I'm betting nothing changes here.

HOUSTON is 19-9 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with the average margin of victory combing by more than 10 ppg.

HOUSTON is 15-7 ATS  as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season and now is 18-7 ATS  against Northwest division opponents this season. Overall HOUSTON is 27-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and is 25-13 ATS as a road favorite this season.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games are a long term good bet, going 189-119 L/22 seasons for a 62% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - CLE Leads 2-0

 Toronto does not seem to matchup well vs the Cavaliers.  However, after being humiliated in front of their home town fans in game 2, of their series, in a DD loss, the Raptors are now desperate for a bounce back and will playing loose. Add to that super star LeBron James,  constant taunting of both the Raptors players and their fans and you have an opponent with a chip on their shoulders and enough talent to make game 3 a war as they look to shake the cant perform in the play off moniker .With that said I'm recommending we take the Raptors plus the points  here in game 3.

Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CLEVELAND is 11-29 ATS  as a home favorite this season.CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS    in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS  off a road win this season. HC Lue is 6-18 ATS  L/24  in home games after scoring 120 points or more .

NBA team vs the money line (TORONTO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more are 25-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

After taking a few games to get acclimated and back into game shape Steph Curry is expected to start tonight for the Golden State Warriors. He is  also expected to play more than the  27 minutes he played in the last game, and will be I'm betting a big factor in the Golden State Warriors ability to cover tonight as short road favorites vs their hosts the New Orelans Pelicans. Meanwhile, the Pelicans looked much better in game 2 of this series, but make not mistake despite of their late season surge and chemistry are over matched vs a  defending championship side  that is very fresh, mostly because of the lack of effort they put forward for much of the 2nd half of the season. What I noticed was the  most troubling thing  with the Pelcians of late, is their complete lack of defense, allowing 123, 123, 121 points in their thier L/3 trips to the hardwood,  as they take on a pure attack mode, which is not a good thing against a team like Golden State,  that can run and gun with the best teams in the world and when challenged can exhibit  a very under rated D.

Note: Leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 2-games-0, the Golden State Warriors have an active five-Game 3 winning streak.

GOLDEN STATE is 72-50 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last few seasons.GOLDEN STATE is 22-11 ATS  in road games after scoring 120 points or more. GOLDEN STATE is 60-38 ATS  L/98 playoff games.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 152-84 ATS L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - top tier team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are a bankroll expanding 78-34 ATS L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Golden State to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - CLE Leads 1-0

The Cleveland Cavaliers had problems with the under rated Indiana Pacers in their last series, and barely scratched out a series win, but according to my own power rankings matchup very well vs the Toronto Raptors as has been evident in recent meetings between these two eastern conference sides. With that said, I am recommending we take the points again here in game 2 in go directly against the zig zag theory.

Raptors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games. Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Toronto.

TORONTO is 18-33 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite and is 4-14 ATS L/18   in home games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent.

TORONTO is 2-13 ATS   vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The Toronto Raptors are 0-14 ATS as a favorite off a home game when they lost at least two straight vs their opponent.The Toronto Raptors are 0-13 ATS off a loss as a favorite in which they led after each of the first three quarters. ( Both happened in the 1st game of this series when the Cavs came back for a 113-112 OT win)

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

I expected the Jazz to make tis a all out  in the trenches war, but I didn't expect was the Rockets were capable of coming back with some grit of their own and out gunning the Jazz in transition. Add in an explosive offense, and a under rated D, and you have to have respect for the home team here, even on a -11 point chalk line. Recently the Jazz have lost the L/5 meetings in this series by DDs. It seems no matter what they can muster the Rockets just have their number, and look especially vulnerable with Guard Rubio out with an injury. Right now I have to follow the flow of these head to head meetings and until the Jazz prove other wise, I'm recommending we lay the lumber with the Rockets, especially here on their own home floor. 

HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS  against Northwest division opponents this season with the average margin of victory coming by 11.4 ppg.

Jazz are 0-13 ATS /SU as a eight-plus point dog with more than one day of rest off a loss losing SU by an average of 18.92 ppg and  are 0-11 ATS /SU  as a dog with rest off a double-digit loss as a road dog in which they made more field goals than their opponent losing by an average of 16.27 pig.

NBA Home teams (HOUSTON) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season. are 33-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

The Warriors when at or near full strength remain the worlds most explosive basketball team. Many people doubted them during the season, but its looks very much like they were wrong, as the Dubs were just conserving their energy for the play offs. Now its full steam ahead, and all comers are in trouble including tonight's opponent the Pelicans. In game one the Warriors superiority and dominance was obvious in a 123-101  DD victory and I'm betting on more of the same over powering hoops from the defending champs tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 19-8 ATS   off a home blowout win by 20 points or more dating back to last season with the average margin of victory coming by almost 14 ppg.

The Warriors are 15-0 ATS/SU covering by an average of 13.47 ppg as a well-rested home favorite off a 10+ home win in which they had at least a 10 percent higher Basket assist % than their opponent with the average SU margin of victory coming by a whopping 22 points , and over the L/3 years the Dubs are 11-0 SU/ATS under the same perimeters winning by an average of 25.63 ppg, with only one game decided by 12 points or less, and the other 10 by huge hefty DD margins.

NBA Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are just 59-99 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Celtics and the Sixers will resume to long time rivalry in the first game of this 2nd round play off matchup this Monday night. I'm expecting the Celtics to make this a physically, grinding series as they look to slow down their opponents explosive offensive attack, and to be hell bent on controlling the boards, especially in their own end, where the Sixers have been rebound behemoths on offense this season. The Celtics base their successes and failures on their ability to play D, and here in game one with key contributor Jaylen Brown expected to miss or be less than 100% the Celtics are really going to depend on their superior defending capabilities vs the run and gun Sixers. It must also be noted that the Sixers have been off since Tuesday, and may show some rust here vs a side that I'm betting will be physical with them. Meanwhile, the Celtics are off a grueling 7 game series with the Bucks and will not have the legs or emotional drive to run here tonight. The above combinations should see this tilt remain on the low side of the Total.

Asked Sunday for keys to defeating the Celtics, Sixers coach Brett Brown said, "Just how you're gonna score. ... They're an excellent defensive team. We respect them with what they do defensively and I think they're clever offensively

BOSTON is 11-3 UNDER   versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.7 ppg scored.Brown is 33-17 UNDER    in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 199 ppg scored. Stevens is 42-17 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-16 UNDER l/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

WAR. That's what I'm betting the Jazz want to make this series into . Not only a physical in the trenches confrontation which they have an advantage in , but a mental and emotionally charged conflict. In the book the " ART OF WAR" Sun Tzu , there is a chapter that, explains how an army's opportunities come from the openings in the environment caused by the relative weakness of the enemy and how to respond to changes in the fluid battlefield over a given area. This is something the Jazz have been very good at in the 2nd half of the season, as is evident by their impressive record. I know Houston is a behemoth enemy and the Jazz are off a grueling series with the Thunder, and that now the linesmakers are  expecting an emotional  and physical drop off for the Jazz vs the Rockets in game 1 of this series. But , what's become evident to me is the rarity with which the Jazz, deter from work horse like ethics, and how disciplined they are, as well as their ability to pinpoint a teams weaknesses and attack it. With that said there is enough value on the line, for me to take the points here in game 1, and than watch closely to see which direction Ill take in game 2, depending directly on how game 1 plays out.

Just one last thing I know the Jazz have lost by DDs in recent meetings with the Rockets, but this team has shown a ability to learn from their mistakes, and Houston has recently not looked as cohesive as usual.
 Key  league wide  Trend:
Underdogs of 10 or more points (UTAH) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 43-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

If you know both yourself and your enemy, you can win numerous (literally, "a hundred") battles without jeopardy.(Verse from the Art of War)

UTAH is 8-0 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 120 points or more this season ( which happened in their series clinching game vs the Wolves last time out) Note:
HC D'Antoni is 8-20 ATS L/28  in home games off a home win by 10 points or more .

The Jazz are 15-0 ATS /14-1 SU on the road with rest off a game as a favorite in which they scored less than 15% of their points from free throws , the lone SU loss came by 3 points .

NBA Favorites (HOUSTON) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more) against a struggling defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 61-115 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

Three of the four games these teams played against each other this season resulted in high scoring affairs. The two most recent games have seen 246, and 240 points scored. These teams are electric offensively and feed off of each others attacks in transition. I'm betting if Golden State wants to beat the streaking Pelicans their going to have to score in bunches, and I am equally confident   that the Pelicans can produce some offensive fireworks of their own in a opening game that I have pegged to go OVER the total. Note: New Orleans has scored 111, 119, 131 in their L/3 games.

NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 OVER  when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 227.7 ppg.NEW ORLEANS is 22-12 OVER  after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 226.4 ppg scored ( NO beat PORT 131-123 L/time out)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 54-14 OVER L/22  seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 233 ppg going on the score board.

Play on the OVER

Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

In a game I have pegged for a run and gun affair laying 8 or 9 points is not a concern, according to my own projections. Golden State can score in bunches and that what I'm expecting they will do today against a another high octane offense, but the difference maker will come via home court advantage and the Warriors overall superior talent and of course their play off experience. The Warriors will also be motivated in knowing their opponent is streaking, and will be very prepared to take the proverbial wind out of their sails and deliver the message that the Warriors are champions to be feared, especially with Curry si  in the lineup( upgraded to possible for this game 1 tilt) Even if he does not play I still like the Warriors in Game 1 .

Also after 3 days rest, I'm betting the Pelicans momentum might take a hit. In the past , they are just  4-13 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest and have a recent history of conference semi final ATS futility failing to cash 4 of their 5 .

Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

Note: Warriors are 26-2 SU  L/28 in this series. The Pelicans did upset the Warriors this season, but Curry was not in the lineup. He's been upgraded to possibly play tonight, and I'm betting their will be no upset in this sot.

The Pelicans are 0-15  SU/ATS as a dog off a home win in which they scored at least 15 points more in the second half than they did the first half with the average margin loss coming by 15.93 ppg, with the closest loss coming by 10 points.

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

The Celtics are a storied franchise, with a great fan base, and tonight, the TD Center will be rocking. This I'm betting will be an intimidating environment for the Bucks, who are at a disadvantage here in my humble opinion. The Bucks,   have lost eight straight series since winning two in 2001 and are 0-17 all-time when trailing a series 0-2. The Celtics are 35-0 when leading a series 2-0 and are once again my pick to advance to the next round and more importantly as far as we are concerned to cover the number.

"Game 7 at TD Garden is what you play for," said Boston coach Brad Stevens, whose team won a seventh game against the Washington Wizards in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals. The experience of that victory will also be an advantage of the Celtics.

BOSTON is 16-4 ATS on Saturday games ( anomaly or nor still an interesting trend).

BOSTON is a perfect  9-0 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.( They lost game 6 by 11 points, but the game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate) Celtics are 11-2 ATS off a road loss. Milwaukee is 4-13 ATS L/17 as a road dog.

The Bucks are 0-24 ATS L/24 as a rested dog off a win as a home favorite over a 280+ team and they are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.47 like the Celtics.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 51-6 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average margin of victory combing by 10.2 ppg.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - CLE Leads 3-2

Ill just say it right off the bat, the Pacers are every bit as good a team as the Cavaliers, and must not  be underestimated here at home as short chalk, with elimination on the line. They  lost a last shot heartbreaker in Cleveland 98-95 and I'm betting will be on the right side of this tilt and force a game 7. QUOTE:  "The series ain't over," Oladipo said. "You got to win four games, right? We still got a game on Friday. I don't think anyone is discouraged or upset. It sucks we lose. But we can give ourselves a chance to come back (to Cleveland) for Game 7." END QUOTE. Oladipo may not be the most eloquent of speakers, but he has captured my feelings to the tee. Yes, I know the Cavs have the best player in the world on the floor ( LeBron James) but the Pacers have something that is coveted by all sports team and that is chemistry.

INDIANA is 26-13 ATS   versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.CLEVELAND is 11-22 ATS   versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season.

INDIANA is 15-4 ATS  in April games over the last 2 seasons.INDIANA is 19-6 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season and  is 11-2 ATS   in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games dating back to last season. Cavs HC  Lue is 19-34 ATS   vs. division opponents in his career.

The Pacers are 14-0 SU /ATS as a favorite with rest off a loss as a dog in which they made more field goals than their opponent with the average margin of victory coming by 15 ppg.

NBA  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are just 23-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2

Boston is a character team, and rarely never give it 100% and consistently come out and play hard. The banged up Celtics have been tenacious in 4 of the 5 games in this series, and notched the 92-87  win last time out on their own home floor to grab a 3-2 lead in this series. The Bucks are very talented and I'm not being disrespectful here, but they don't have the same never say die work ethic the Celtics have. They won their two games at home in this series because of tremendous shooting ( 57,52% FG), but their FG% conversion rate has been wildly inconsistent this season, as was the case last time out when they scored just 87 points and converted on just 36.8% of their shots  I know this a do or die situation for the Bucks, but I'm betting the Celtics make this a war, and won;t let the Bucks take this to a game 7 without making it very physically difficult for their hosts, which makes getting points a viable betting opportunity in my humble opinion. 

Boston has covered 5 of their L/7 here in Milwaukee. 

BOSTON is 30-13 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 17-5 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.BOSTON is 20-6 ATS as an underdog this season.BOSTON is 13-5 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less this season.

MILWAUKEE is 8-18 ATS L/26 when playing against a team with a winning record.MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or  free throws/game.MILWAUKEE is 4-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.MILWAUKEE is 3-11 ATS  in home games off a road loss this season.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

The Pacers took game 1 in this series by DDs, and that woke the Cavs out of dead sleep, as they realized they were in trouble, if they did not leave everything on the proverbial table. The next three games in the series, has seen the Cavs play their hearts out, and win two games, but all three games were decided by 4 points or less. With that said, I'm betting 6.5 points offers value for the underdog in a series that is evenly matched . Upset alert in motion here. 

Indiana has covered 8 of their L/10 visits to Cleveland.

CLEVELAND is 3-16 ATS  as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. INDIANA is 18-6 ATS  after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.NDIANA is 16-5 ATS L/21 in road games when playing with 2 days rest . 

NBA  team (INDIANA) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 55-26 L/5 seasons 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

The Heat are in a do or die situation. This is a proud group, that I'm betting Wil be primed to play tonight vs a talented but young Philadelphia group that is new at closing out play off series,something that is not as easy some might think. I know the Heat as a group understand that all they need is to come out here and give it their all and this series goes back to Miami where the Sixes will be under a lot more pressure.Like the old adage goes, It,s not over til the fat lady sings.


Quote:

It's not necessarily us against the world," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "It's us against the Philadelphia 76ers. We have to find a way to finish games. They've really nailed us in the fourth quarters of all four games, except the one we were able to pull away. We just have to do better. Through three quarters, we've been up. It's going to require a full 48-minute game of our absolute best effort." End Quote

MIAMI is 26-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 12-2 ATS L14 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game.

MIAMI is 16-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 21-8 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.
MIAMI is 15-4 ATS L19 in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games.MIAMI is 11-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.MIAMI is 22-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games .

Play on Miami to cover

Boston was up 2-0 in this play off series  entering the 2 game set in Milwaukee this past weekend , and blew a DD deficit last time out to lose 104-102 heart breaker to lose and now see the Bucks tie this series a 2-2. Right now the Bucks are converting    their shots at a high clip, but, their consistency all season long has been a question mark, and I'm betting they now revert back to their norms.  Even though the Bucks have been shooting the lights out in the L/3 games of this series, that's not necessarily  a good omen for them here tonight as MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS L/29 after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better. It must also be noted that the never say die blue collar Celtics are 18-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and   is 11-2 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.

MILWAUKEE is 9-18 ATS  after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season. MILWAUKEE is 18-30 ATS   off a home win dating back to last season.

BOSTON is 16-5 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.BOSTON is 15-6 ATS L/21 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 32-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 11-23 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 23-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston to cover