Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

Portland has really piked up its defensive intensity in these play offs. That was evident vs the Denver Nuggets in this last series. Note: Since late December of 2015, the Denver Nuggets were held to under 37.1% shooting from the field at home in only two games - both were in their playoff series vs Portland. Now the Blazers will go against an explosive Golden State team that they know they wont easily compete against in a run and gun affair, and instead Im betting will focus on a more conservative physical approach here that will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 UNDER  in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 215.6 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 Conference Finals games
Under is 10-3-1 in Warriors last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play UNDER 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

Philadelphia awoke from a 2 game slumber last time out in game 6, and forced a game 7 here in Toronto this Sunday. From the outset of this series I thought these teams were fairly evenly matched, and my thoughts have not changed. With that said, Im now betting we have value on the line getting points with Philadelphia in a game that  has a high probability according to my projections of being hard fought to the very end. 

TORONTO is 2-11 ATS  in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.TORONTO is 4-15 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 77-58 ATS  as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with the average margin deficit of those 135 games clicking in at 5 ppg.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

I know that play off series when they go deep have a tendency of going under. However all games must  be treated independently of each other. There is just to much offence on the floor here tonight in a game that I have pegged to be closely contested for this total not to breached .

PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 OVER  after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more this season with a combined average of 239.6 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA in 53 games vs up-tempo games where they attempt 88 or more shots this season have seen a combined average of 232.1 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

As in all NBA play off games that have gone deep into a series the opposing sides are a bit fatigued and both sides are very accustomed to each others offensive schemes and all the necessary defensive adjustments have been accounted for thus a lower scoring affair is not out of the ordinary. Add that both sides do not want to make mistakes, and conservative hoops is the norm that makes a under wager here a viable investment option. 

The L/14 seasons have seen the under go 97-69 UNDER in game 6 and 7s of play off series.

Under is 5-2 in Trail Blazers last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 14-5 in Nuggets last 19 home games.

Play on the UNDER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2

These teams have had alot of half court games over the last few seasons, but the two games played in Houston in this series, showed some more wide open hoops. With Houston on the verge of elimination Im betting they unload here in a big way and leave everything on the court in aggressive fashion which will force the Warriors to run and gun with their desperate opponents in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

The Rockets  in their L/10 games since Mar 17, 2019 as a home favorite have seen a combined average score of 220.4 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 15-2 OVER in home games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg going on the score board.

GOLDEN STATE is 20-8 OVER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs with a combined average of 227.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE/HOUSTON ) - in the second round of the playoffs are 104-52 OVER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2

Denver phenom Nikola Jokic continued  his top tier play with  25 points and 19 rebounds in Game 5 . The big man is averaging 26.4 points, 14.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists and controlling play while hes on the court.  His emergence into the associations list of up and comers and the good energy he creates for his hard working teams mates makes this Denver hard to beat in their current form and they get my backing again tonight to cover this spread. 

PORTLAND is 11-22 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.PORTLAND is 6-17 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. 

Play on Denver to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

It has become painfully obvious to Sixers backers over the last couple of games that the young men from the City of Brotherly Love,  are having issues dealing with the Raptors  super star Kawhi Leonard who is proving himself as the best player in this series.  Add to that the  sudden emergence of Kyle Lowry , as he finally is showing us he can play well in a play off environment and you have a situation that favors the Raptors to advance to the next round with a win tonight. Note: Leonard has become the fifth player in NBA history to register150 points, 30 rebounds and 15 assists through the first four games of a playoff series in NBA history, and Im betting he will be the difference maker in this spot. Note:  Since  the 2014-15, season, home underdogs in game 6  are 0-10 SU, losing by an average of 19.5 ppg. 

Philadelphias Embiid is averaging just 17 points and 7.6 rebounds in the series ( injuries, ailments, exhaustion, and lack of play off experience is key here )

76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.

NBA Home underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 14-44  ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

With the way the Sixers are shooting, and their flow has been for the last couple of games Im betting they wont just suddenly come out here and light things up. Add to that when the Sixers star Embiid is off the court his team has been a wreck, and with him playing they have really not been been much better, as its obvious to me hes not 100% as  rumors swirl about his fitness and possible ill health at a very inopportune time. Because the Sixers chemistry looks to be a shambles entering this game I fully expect them to have a muted offensive effort in a game that has a high probability of not eclipsing the number.

Under is 6-0-1 in Raptors last 7 road games.Under is 6-0-1 in Raptors last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 Thursday games.Under is 4-0-1 in Raptors last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 overall.Under is 8-2 in Raptors last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 Conference Semifinals games.Under is 7-2-1 in Raptors last 10 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-2-1 in Raptors last 9 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

TORONTO is 24-7 UNDER off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals with a combined average of 190.6 ppg scored. 

 Play UNDER (LATE STEAM)

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

The opening line on this game was -9.5 which is pretty accurate , and now because of public perceptions about Houstons ability to compete with Golden State a flurry of public money has lowered this line down to value level and Im now all over Golden State elevating their play here tonight in coming out here like their hair is on fire. Note:  NBA playoff teams  like the Rockets that won two straight games vs a one or a two seed to tie the series at two games are 0-8 ATS/SU L/8 times in game five with the average margin defeat coming by 17.4 ppg.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 55-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - MIL Leads 3-1

The Celtics are now in desperation mode and must get back to what made their opening game in this series a successful one. In game 1 the Celtics held the Bucks to 90 points and got a win, and since than gotten away from the type of defensive ball that has made them successful over the last few seasons. Tonight Im betting they pay very strict attention to D, knowing that they can not out score the Bucks in a fast paced game and are a big time disadvantage. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers and public might expect. 

BOSTON is 17-6 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, with a winning record on the season are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Denver has shown me they are the superior team in this series conflict with Portland thanks in part to a top tier defence, better open court shots, and a young man by the name of Jokic who is averaging 24.5 points per game, 12.5 assists, 9.3 assists and shooting better than 50% from the field, which are to this point the greatest numbers ever put up by a rookie in play off history. The big man logged alot of minutes last time out, but hes well conditioned and young, and more than capable of having another big game here at home in the Mile High City where the Nuggets have played their best hoops this season.

Portland has failed to cover 18 of their L/23 after a straight-up loss in the playoffs under HC Stotts. 

Trail Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Conference Semifinals games.

Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Conference Semifinals games.Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Nuggets are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. NBA Northwest.

Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - off a road win against a division rival against opponent off a home loss are 63-19 L/5 seasons for a 77% SU conversion rate with the average ppg dif clicking in at +6.6 .

NBA Road underdogs (PORTLAND) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 8-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

These teams are pretty evenly matched according to my head to head power rankings . I know Joel Embiid looked horrible in the final half of the last quarter, and possibly single handily handed the Raptors the win in game 4 of this series , with ugly charity stripe shooting, turnovers, and very nervous and overall big man clumsiness, and his lack of being an experienced closer . Despite of all this he is very talented and being on the road should help him be more balanced. With that said,  Im betting the young man comes out here and adjusts , with a much better effort and leads his team to a cover.

Raptors are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Conference Semifinals games. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdogs are 41-22 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate .

Play on the 76ers to cover 

 Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1

In game 3 of this series I expected a fairly high scoring game , and it went into OT, and we cashed on the OVER. I saw a tendency towards a faster paced set in game 2, which led me to my assessment,  but now Im expecting a more conservative approach here from both teams, and a half court game which is the norm when these teams go head to head over the last few seasons. Remember both teams saw key players play an extreme amount of minutes ( Harden) and now a fatigue factor must be considered.    Houston is and 0-6 UNDER by an average of more than 14 points  as a favorite in the playoffs after a game with eight-plus lead changes while the Warriors are 0-8  UNDER L/8 staying below the number by more than an average 13 ppg as a road pup with less than two days rest off a road loss in which there were eight-plus lead changes. 

GOLDEN STATE is 23-8 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined 215.3 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 77-37 UNDER L5 seasons for 68%conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

 .

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 2-1

Milwaukee has imposed their offensive will on the Celtics in back to back games in this series, scoring 123 points in both tilts (wins), and  now Im betting nothing changes tonight as they hit or eclipse that number, again with Boston having no choice but to open up with their own capable offence and also have a substantial output performance. 

The Bucks are 6-0 L/6 OVER on the road eclipsing the Total by more than 18 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 244.2 ppg.

BOSTON is 8-0 OVER in home games in the second round of the playoffs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored.

MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER in road games versus top tier offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.3 ppg. 

Over is 6-0 in Bucks last 6 road games.Over is 7-0 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 games following a ATS win.Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 overall. Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 13-3 in Bucks last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 Conference Semifinals games.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 17-5 in Bucks last 22 games following a straight up win.Over is 24-8 in Bucks last 32 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 26-9 in Bucks last 35 vs. NBA Atlantic.Over is 11-4 in Bucks last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a straight up loss.Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 11-4-1 in Celtics last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

These teams have gone over in 8 of the L/10 meetings here in Boston. 

Play OVER 

The Celtics have to come out of their defensive minded shell and compete with the Bucks, who just refuse to slow down. It's not like the Celtics don't have the fire power or determination to compete, and tonight I expect some adjustments that make them more aggressive offensively. Look for Kyrie Irving to come out of a 2 game shooting funk here and really put forward a top tier effort. 

BOSTON is 12-2 ATS  in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.

Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games.Celtics are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

NBA Underdogs vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 19-79 SU L/5 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

The last time these teams played they went into extended OT, and now, so many in the public are expecting a muted offensive effort here today because of fatigue factor. But now with all the value sucked out of the total in downward fashion, Im now betting the OVER is a value wager and a game that should see both teams eclipse the 105+ plateau based on my own projections. Note:DENVER is 33-9 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 44-10 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 10-0 OVER in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 245.3 ppg scored.

The Nuggets are 6-0 OVER (18.83 ppg) since Apr 07, 2019 as a road dog with a combined score of 232.5 ppg scored.

DENVER is 10-1 OVER  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PORTLAND) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 61-25 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

Im betting the Raptors are in trouble without the injured Siakam in the lineup here today in Philadelphia, especially in transition where he is one of the best in the league. It must be noted that Toronto has decreased its FG% conversion rare  by 4.7% margin with Siakam not playing . When Siakam is on the bench during  the these playoffs, the Raps are recording an Offensive Rating of 94.2 and an eFG% of 42.9%; they’ve been at 109.7 and 55.2% with him on the floor. The Raptors bench is weak, and volatile  and with the way Lowry continues to struggle, and the Dinos ultra dependence  Kawhi Leonard for offence, things just don't look good for them despite of being desperate for a win. 

During the L/5 play of seasons,sides that were defeated in  their previous game by 10 ppg or more and then are underdogs in their next playoff tilt have really let their betting backers down going  45-76-1 for a go  against 61% conversion rate on the spread .

NBA Road underdogs (TORONTO) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 7-25 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0

Golden State are still the odds on favs to win the NBA championship, and rightly so. I know Houston is one of the few teams that matchup well against the Warriors, but the Dubs are still the superior side, and are a dangerous road dog, making them my choice here tonight deep in the heart of Texas. Lots of value at this line.

Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. HOUSTON is 7-16 ATS  after allowing 115 points or more this season which was the case in the game 2 loss.

Play on Golden State to cover

These teams have a history of playing alot of half court games that have gone under the total. However, I noticed an interesting trend of faster paced basketball starting unfold in game 2 in Oakland as the combined score clicked in at 224 points. The Rockets for the most part were expected to  wanted these games to be slower paced, while  the Warriors want to run. Now here in Houston Im expecting the Rockets to be more aggressive and to push the action, and for the Warriors to have no problems reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game that Im betting eclipses the total. 

Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.

GOLDEN STATE in their L/25 games as a # 1 seed in the playoffs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 228.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

After a top tier performance in game 1 the Nuggets then looked fatigued in game 2 of this series vs the Blazers. Do I think 2 days rest, is enough for the the young men from Denver to get back the form they had against the Spurs and then in the first tilt of this series? Yes, I do and suggest we take the points. Note: Denver really struggled from beyond the arc in game 2  , converting on just 6 of 29 shots for a 20.7% conversion rate. It not all bad however, from a ATS perspective as teams over the L/14 seasons, who hit 21% or less of their down town attempts, were positive money earners cashing at 101-77-4 ATS clip in their follow up game.

PORTLAND is 6-14 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season. 

Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
Nuggets are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Northwest.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Denvers success has been predicated on their ability to play top tier defence, as is evident by their 6th overall ppg D, and their 20th ranked offensive output, which includes, a 27th ranked pace. Here on the road Im betting on a very conservative attack set of schemes from Denver, and a physical type approach that will slow down the run and gun Blazers which Im betting results in a much lower scoring game then the linesmakers expect.

DENVER is 15-5 UNDER  in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season which was the case in game 2 of this series ( 187 total point output in a 97-90 loss)

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 44-15 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

The teams split games in Boston during the regular season, with the Celtics winning 117-113 in November and the Bucks prevailing 120-107 in December. But since the beginning of this season the Bucks have morphed into a power house in this league and must be respected here as road underdogs.  The Bucks started this series very slowly, but boy did they ever pick things up last time out with a dominating 123-102 victory, and Im betting they continue to surge here on the road where they have covered their L/4 as visitors overall. BOSTON is 5-15 ATS off a road loss this season and are fade material here. I just cant get over the fact of how the Celtics struggled for long periods of time this season, and how they have been bad bets at home of late, failing to cover 8 of their L/10 at home and 10 of their L/14 as home chalk. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

The 76ers and the Raptors spilt the first two games of this series, in Toronto , but I feel the Raptors are better and deeper team, and have an edge here tonight in Philadelphia. Im not the only one who feels like this as is evident by the market shift and overall smart money that has steamed in on this  since the line was posted. 

TORONTO is 32-19 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. TORONTO is 33-17 ATS  vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

In the last 14 seasons teams that cashed an underdog in their last game, like the Sixers, are long term bad bets as is evident by going  176-208-8 ATS including 80-102-2 ATS when those same  sides play at hosts in their next tilt.

The Sixers are just 3-7 ATS after a SU win as an underdog, failing to cover by 5.9 points per game and this season after a SU win , the 76ers are a bankroll  depleting 22-33 ATS for their backers for a go against 60% conversion rate for opposing bettors. 

Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.Raptors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Raptors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.Raptors are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.Raptors are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 vs. NBA Atlantic.

76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Semifinals games.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - DEN Leads 1-0

The Nuggets key to success this season, and what has gotten them this far is their defence. The Nuggets offensive output is ranked 20th in the league the defence ranked 6th in ppg allowed and  they own the 27th ranked pace.  I know Portland can light things up in a hurry, but Denver is built to slow teams like this down, and here in the thin air in the Mile High City are better suited for physical action which can be exhausting, and also directly effect the total combined score out come to the low side. 

Under is 13-4 in Nuggets last 17 home games.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 18-7 in Nuggets last 25 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - DEN Leads 1-0  

Denver after a long series against San Antonio kept their momentum alive in game 1 of this series vs Portland with a win. However, this Nuggets team must be tired and their fatigue could easily be a factor tonight against a motivated opponent that needs a win here to gain a split in this series. These teams are just to evenly matched from alot of perspectives that make me feel confident about taking points here. 

DENVER is 12-27 ATS  after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

Trail Blazers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games.Trail Blazers are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Trail Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss.Trail Blazers are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.Trail Blazers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.

Nuggets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.

Play on the Portland Blazers to cover 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

The Rockets are one of the few teams in the NBA that matchup well against the Warriors.The Dubs squeezed past Houston in game 1 , but game 2 Im betting will see the Rockets be in a position to pull off an upset and more importantly cover the number for the 2nd straight time. Note: Golden State has failed to cover 11 of their L/18 ATS this season in that next home game, after a win  failing to cover the spread by 6.9 points per game

Golden St is 0-8 ATS L/8 at home off a tilt in which Steph Curry was not their high scorer,(which was the case in game 1) falling to over by an average of 19.38 ppg.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

The Celtics came in and upset the Bucks in game 1 of this series. It was in some ways surprising . In the past in the play offs the the Celtics were just 12-17 ATS as dog in their L/30 games as compared to being 19-3 ATS as a post season favorite. Both were rested for game 1 and both look similar to each other in some ways, but Im betting the difference maker in game 2 will be the Greek Freak Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 15-3 ATS  off a upset loss as a favorite this season and is  18-4 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season.

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

On Sunday, the Celtics opened the series by cruising to a 112-90 victory, mostly because of how they defended Antetokounmpo Im betting they wont be able to keep the Greek Freak down in two games in a row, in a game Im betting will be played faster and the Bucks chosen pace.  The Bucks own the no.1 offence and the 2nd fast pace in the league and they will be ready to run and gun tonight. The Celtics will be forced into responding with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blow off the court. This will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BOSTON) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 30-9 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - TOR Leads 1-0

The first game of this series between the Raptors and their guests the 76ers was played at a very fast pace,  but as  it became obvious in the 4th quarter that the Sixers had no chance of winning the game slowed down to a crawl and both teams combined for  just 30 points in the final end. In game one of this series the Raptors were in full flight with fast breaks the norm, while Philadelphia seems tentative and sat back for the most part . This time around I expect the Sixers to come out here flying , and for the Raptors to easily reciprocate in a game I have pegged to bounce over the total. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA/TORONTO) - in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 38-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate! 

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1

My own projections and matchup stats suggest the Rockets matchup better than most teams in the west vs the defending NBA champion Dubs. Including the regular season and playoffs meetings, the Rockets are 8-6 SU against the Warriors over the last couple of seasons. After coming close to knocking off the champs in last year's Conference Finals, the Rockets will get their shot at redemption and will be primed to perform.

HOUSTON is 15-6 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season.

GOLDEN STATE is 11-24 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

Play on Houston Rockets to cover 

Eastern Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The last time these teams played back in February the Bucks came out of that game with a 98-97 win, here in Milwaukee.  This Sunday afternoon Im expecting another hard fought game, in a tilt between combatants that know each other very well.  The Bucks have won 5 of the L/7 here straight up but the Celtics have cashed ATS in 5 of those games and Im recommending we take the points again in this spot.  

Im betting on the Celtics to implement small ball game plan here with Horford vs Lopez at the center of the attention  which will be key to aggravating the Bucks flow. Also with Malcolm Brogdon out for Milwaukee there is definitely room here and value with getting points with the Celtics. 

MILWAUKEE is 11-24 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

BOSTON is 19-8 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.BOSTON is 15-7 ATS  against Central division opponents this season. 

Play on Boston to cover 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3 

I just don't like the flow the Spurs at this point of the season. The Spurs  shooting on the whole looks horrendous for the most part and Im also not impressed with their rebounding. The Spurs have not played well away from home all season long, garnering just 17 wins in 44 games, and have already lost 2 of the 3 games here in the Mile High City in this series. After watching the Spurs flail away in the first half of the last game before their desperation and home town fans buoyed them to a win in game 6 , with a 2nd half surge, it became obvious to me the more talented team behind  key technical players like  Nikola Jokic make this young Denver team a bad matchup for the Spurs. With that said, Im backing the Nuggets to deliver the cash on a cover here in game 7 and advance. 

DENVER is 12-4 ATS  in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.DENVER is 25-16 ATS as a home favorite this season. 

SAN ANTONIO is 8-18 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons.SAN ANTONIO is 11-21 ATS  after scoring 115 points or more this season.SAN ANTONIO is 16-29 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons

Spurs are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

The inexperienced  Nuggets must be a little nervous here as they play a game 7, and could easily start conservatively as they make sure not to make mistakes. Meanwhile, San Antonio is off a big time offensive performance and conversion rate, and Im betting they naturally regress here today. That combination Im betting  should help keep this game on the low side of the total. Note: DENVER is 38-17 UNDER L/55 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average of 197.2 ppg. 

Popovich is 33-19 UNDER in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of SAN ANTONIO with a combined average score 189 .4 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Eastern Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1

There is a huge amount of offensive talent on the court here today for both teams. The Raptors average 114.4 ppg, while the Sixers have averaged 115.2 ppg. Im betting both teams come at each other and for this game 1 to feature some offensive fireworks. 

Raptors: 119.0 ORtg | 58.9% eFG | 92.9 DRtg | 43.8% eFG allowed

76ers: 123.3 ORtg | 57.7% eFG | 101.1 DRtg | 46.3% eFG allowed.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA/TORONTO) - in the second round of the playoffs, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 36-10 OVER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

 Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2

The Warriors are the defending NBA champs and have a core of veteran players that know how to win big games and championships. I know the Warriors have looked lazy as they took the Clippers for granted especially in game 5. But  now wide awake and not wanting a game 7 look for this super star  Dubs team to shine through and get the win and more importantly as far as we are concerned the cover . The key and difference maker int his game  Im betting comes behind Greens defensive prowess around the rim. Golden State has won 7 of their L/8 visits to the Staples Center vs the Clippers and get the nod again. This is the biggest spread put on a NBA road play off game  in at least 14 seasons, but the Warriors despite of showing chinks in their armour are still capable of covering this number , and the linesmakers and smart money know it. 

In the last 14 seasons, double-digit underdogs in the NBA playoffs are  10-107 straight up. 

 GOLDEN STATE is 29-13 ATS  in the first round of the playoffs since 1996. 

Play on Golden St to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2

I betting the Clippers will be a little fatigued here tonight, as they have played extremely hard in this series , and after going off in their last game a regression is expected by me, vs an under rated Golden State defence. That equals out to what I project will be a total combined score that stays on the low side of the total. In the last 14 seasons , the under is 96-66 UNDER in Game 6 and 7s , for a almost 60% conversion rate for bettors.

GOLDEN STATE in their L/23 games after allowing 120 points or more this season have seen a combined average score of 223.1 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER  in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

Rivers is 14-4 UNDER  in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of LA CLIPPERS with a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored.

 NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a above average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 68-30 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play  UNDER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2

Denver looked good last time out, but this Spurs team has for some reason, struggled on the road this season, so I was not completely surprised  when they lost the key game 5 in the Mile High City.  The Spurs are 33-10 SU home this season and have an edge here on their own floor against almost anyone in this league. When the going gets tough having a guy like Popvich in your corner is a good thing . Note: The Spurs behind Popovich are bankroll expanding 30-17-2 ATS in Games 5-7. 

SAN ANTONIO is 24-5 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season and is 13-2 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. 

SAN ANTONIO is 21-8 ATS  when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

. 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - DEN Leads 3-2 

 This series is getting more physical, and both sides are figuring the other sides schemes out. Last time out we saw a lower scoring affair, and Im betting nothing changes here tonight, especially considering the Spurs have to fight for their playoff lives to force a deciding seventh game in Denver on Saturday.

In the last 14 seasons , betting the under in Game 6 and 7 of a playoff series has gone 96-65 UNDER  for a just under 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - an excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 99-57 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - HOU Leads 3-1

Harden and the Houston Rockets are not an easy team to play against, but Utah as time has gone in this series, look to be catching on to ways to slow this behemoth side down.  In game 3 they were the better team , and they still lost, but in game 4 they dominated and won . In the L/2 meetings of this series the Rockets have been held to a 35.2 % FG conversion rate, and  in game 4  the Rockets were held  to a 97.8 offensive rating as the Jazz owned the Rockets in the paint  while allowing them to convert just 47.6% around the rim. Here in game 5, I don't think the Jazz can do as much damage as last time, but their toughness and resiliency make them a viable side investment option at this number The public loves the Rockets and with all the money coming in on them you think the line would go the other way, but the books have chopped a half point off the opener knowing that contrarian market moves have been  coming in this tilt. I like our  edge here, and recommend we take the points with a side fighting for its play off lives.

D'Antoni is 18-35 ATS  in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. 

Play on Utah Jazz to cover

The Thunder showed  flashes of brilliance earlier this season, and even before the play offs started I looked at them as a possible dark horse contender. But in never ending chase for value and a readjustment on my estimated market price attached to them, I changed my opinion. The Thunder continue to struggle with their shooting , and they just dont look like they have an answer for McCollum and and Lillard and with Paul George struggling with nagging injuries and his  lack flow for long periods of time, it very much looks like their party is over. I know the public loves the Thunder, but there comes a time when illusion transgresses back into reality. 

PORTLAND is 11-3 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-15 ATS  after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 3 seasons

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less  TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 138-37 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with a point differential of 7.9 ppg clicking in! 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 55-12 L/22 seasons for 82% conversion rate for bettors with the average point diff clicking in at 8.8 ppg whihc qualifies as value on this spread. 

Portland to cover 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Series tied at 2-2

Now that this series is tied 2-2 Im betting we start to see this series turn much more physical as a proverbial dog fight unfolds. I know Denver has shown some offensive flow in the last few games, but they have been hitting 3s at a high rate, but only converting around the rim at a 47.8% clip and a regression must be expected according to my projections. Meanwhile, San Antonio has only taken shots from beyond the arc in 18.3 % of their possessions and continually look to push the ball inside which indicates a concerted effort to dig in play physical ball and do their offensive work around the rim. This Im betting will result in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers and public might expect.

Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 road games.Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 vs. Western Conference.

Under is 6-0 in Nuggets last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. .Under is 11-3 in Nuggets last 14 home games.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - TOR Leads 3-1

 Since game 2 of this series the Raptors have absolutely dominated and dismantled the young Magic and Im betting nothing changes tonight in TO. The Raptors are cleaning the glass at a high rate, not allowing open 3s and just plain old showing us all how dangerous and deep they are. This matchup reminds me alot of the  lopsided Milwaukee /Detroit series . Note: The Raptors Net Rating +23.7 which is almost on par with the Bucks. 

TORONTO is 9-0 ATS  in home games after allowing 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons with the average point diff clicking in at 15.8 ppg.

In the L/14 seasons, chalk  favored by double-digits in  Game 5 are 25-1 SU, with the average wining point diff clicking in at 14.4 points per game

Play on Toronto to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 3-0

James Harden shot 3-of-20 (15%) from the field in the Rockets’ Game 3 victory in Utah and now Im expecting a more efficient outing from the super star and his team as a whole. I know Utah is a defense first team, and really protect the rim well with Gobert , but because of this the  Rockets will have space to shoot 3s, because when the vacuum cleaner as I like to call him, is pulled out of the paint he's out of his comfort zone. With elimination on board for the Rockets Im expecting they become aggressive, and this in turn will force the Jazz to open up which in turn will make for a higher scoring game than the public leaning linesmakers are expecting.  

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 79-33 OVER  L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 3-0

The Jazz did everything possible to beat the Rockets last time out and they still lost. Now completely letdown the Jazz have to face a group that gives them alot of matchup difficulties and  their just not built to handle them. That's  why Im betting on a sweep here and for the Rockets to end this tonight. Note: Favorites with a  3-0 series lead in Game 4 are 24-17-1 ATS last 14 seasons.

Play on the Rockets to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 3-0

The Pistons haven't shown enough of a defensive presence against a  Bucks team that averaged a league-high 118.1 points a game and their obviously not capable  enough of stopping them again tonight. With Milwaukee on the verge of their first play off round series win in 18 seasons you can bet they will be ready to end this tonight in full beatdown mode. The Pistons will have no choice but to open up and try to keep pace which will make for a total score that eclipses this number. 

Budenholzer in his L/8  road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season as the coach of MILWAUKEE has seen a combined average score of 228.9 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 28-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - POR Leads 2-1

The first two games of this series stayed well below the Total, and in game 3 the total was barely eclipsed very late in the game. Im betting on another hard fought tilt between a Portland side struggling to convert consistently right now, and Oklahoma city team that has underachieved and shot below average all season long. With that said, Im recommending we hit the under again here in game 4. 

Under is 25-11-2 in the last 38 meetings in Oklahoma City.

PORTLAND is 37-17 UNDER  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 211.9 ppg. 

Under is 5-2 in Thunder last 7 vs. Western Conference.Under is 35-15-1 in Thunder last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 18-7-1 in Thunder last 26 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-6 UNDER  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average of 220.5 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 19-5 UNDER  off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 211.3 ppg going on the board. 

Play UNDER 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - POR Leads 2-1

Thanks to Westbrooks great shooting in game 3 of this series, the Thunder muscled past the Blazers, as they played like their hair was on fire and also as a team shot at 50% with their treys. Now in a sort of a letdown scenario I expect Westbrook who is off one of his worst shooting years  from beyond the arc (29.3%)  to regress here, and to take his team with him .  Im betting on Damian Lillard to stand tall here for the Blazers and get us the cover.

Thunder are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.Thunder are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 Sunday games.Thunder are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.

PORTLAND is 11-1 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-10 ATS  on Sunday games this season. 

Play on Portland to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - TOR Leads 2-1

The Raptors have now won and completely controlled  back to back games in this series to take a 2-1 lead, and look like viable road favorites tonight to deliver the goods again vs a Orlando Magic side that is in a shooting funk for the first time since they made their late season run to the play offs. We have concurring momentum patterns forming, with the Magic slumping at the worst possible time, and the powerful Dinos finally starting to show their dominance. 

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 8-30 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1

I know alot is being made of the DeMarcus Cousins injury, but from a defensive perspective thats a good thing for the Warriors. As for the Warriors offence they have more than enough guns , to make up for his absence and like I said, they now no longer have a defensive liability on the floor. 

I know the Clippers played a tremendous game last time out, and shocked the Warriors, but it must be noted that the Warriors are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in the game after a defeat when taking on  a Western Conference team in the playoffs. Overall the Dubs have cashed 13 of their L/18 on the road and can go from being up by a few points to DDs in the flash of an eye, so laying points with them here in a bounce back situation is not that scary a proposition vs a LA CLIPPERS team that is 2-11 ATS  in April games over the last 2 seasons with the point diff clicking in at -13.2 ppg.  

Play on Golden State to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 3-0

Boston can wrap this series up this Sunday, and thats what Im betting they do. The men from Bean town have owned the Pacers and nothing suggests anything will change today. I think some pundits are surprised the Celtics have righted their ship after a bumpy ride the end of their season, and Im not 100% sure that they can continue this type of play into the next series. But what i do know is that the Celtics matchup well vs a Pacers team that did not look cohesive entering the playoffs. Note:  INDIANA is 4-12 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Teams down 3-0 are 3-12 SU L/15 times dating back the 2016 season.

BOSTON is 12-1 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons which was the case in game 3 of this series. Boston is 6-1 L/7 here in Indiana . 

Play on Boston Celtics to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

This game and series between the Pistons and the Bucks is a complete mismatch, and the first two lopsided scores favoring Milwaukee were no flukes. No even home court advantage Im betting will save the Pistons from another beatdown.

MILWAUKEE is 7-0 ATS  in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season this season with the average margin of victory coming by 13 ppg.

MILWAUKEE is 8-1 ATS  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. 

MILWAUKEE is 14-3 ATS vs. division opponents this season with the average point differential clicking in at +13 ppg. 

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover

According to my projections  tell me we have value with an under wager here in this tilt between the Sixers and Nets. This total has gotten bigger with each game,  and now the linesmkaers have over adjusted . Brooklyn cant keep on just trying to run and gun and blow by the Sixers, and Im betting their coaching staff makes enough adjustments here today to thwart the Sixers flow. Afternoon games have a long term tendency of being played at a slower pace which Im betting this aids our under wager cashing.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 UNDER  in the 4th game of a playoff series since 1996.PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 UNDER off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 15-3 UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season

NBA  teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road win, in April games are 51-27 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion .rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - POR Leads 2-0

The Oklahoma City Thunder have exhibited less than stellar shooting prowess all season long,ranking 22nd in in 3 point shooting and things are not getting much better, and have now shot a combined 10-61 (16.4%) from 3-point range in the first two games of this series. Tonight Im betting the Thunders long range futility will contribute to a lower scoring game as will Portlands horrendous 2nd to last play off FG% conversion rate vs a strong rim protection Thunder group.

PORTLAND is 21-9 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 10-1 UNDER  off a home win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 206.1 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0

The two first games of this series have not gone of the Pacers way thanks to in ability to keep their offensive flow going and converting on easy shots, while also allowing them selves to get up in defensive affairs , which the Celtics are looking better at implementing . So tonight Im expecting more flow to the Pacers game as they look to resurrect their chances in this series/ With that said, Im betting  on a tilt that will feature more offence and a faster pace.

NBA team (BOSTON) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 60-29 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

The Raptors after losing game 1 came storming back with a convincing two way performance, crushing Orlando by a 111-82 count. After watching the Raptors dismantle, the Magic, Im betting the zig zag theory does not apply to this matchup. I know Orlando has had quite a 2nd half run ,but right now I feel the Dinos talent level and hunger for victory will trump what this young group has to offer.Note: NBA play off road favs are  30-11-1 against the spread over the last couple of seasons for a 73% conversion rate. I like this game alot and would bet it as high as -6. 

TORONTO is 33-19 ATS  in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 71-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Raptors to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Denver may have found a way to win and cover in game 2 of this series, but San Antonio still looked like the better overall team, and deserve my backing here tonight. 

Nuggets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest.Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.

DENVER is 6-15 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season.

Spurs are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Spurs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

SAN ANTONIO is 20-2 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. SAN ANTONIO is 6-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons in San Antonio.

SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. SAN ANTONIO is 16-5 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 ATS  in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS  in home games against Northwest division opponents this season.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs . to cover

These teams play contrasting styles both home nd away. The Nuggets went under in 25 of their 41 road games and were the most profitable UNDER road team in the league this season  , while the Spurs were 23-18 to the under at home. With that said, after a fairly high scoring game in Denver last time out, Im betting on this one being more conservative and physcial in nature as the young inexperienced Nuggets try to find their footing in a hostile environment. 

Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 Thursday games.Under is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. NBA Southwest.Under is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 13-3 in Nuggets last 16 games following a straight up win.

Under is 14-4 in Nuggets last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 overall.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-4 in Nuggets last 14 road games.Under is 10-4 in Nuggets last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 14-6 in Nuggets last 20 vs. Western Conference.Under is 9-4 in Nuggets last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 10-1 in Spurs last 11 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-3 in Spurs last 13 home games.Under is 16-5 in Spurs last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Spurs last 8 overall.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 games following a straight up loss.Under is 5-2 in Spurs last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 7-3-1 in Spurs last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.Under is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 36-16 in Spurs last 52 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 210.5 (DENVER) - in a playoff game, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 64-32 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

This series is now tied 1-1 and swings back to Brooklyn in a more favorable environment for the Nets. The Nets stole game 1 before the Sixers stormed back in game 2 and won in convincing fashion.Now on a couple of days rest the Nets will now be ready to rebound. Note: The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their past 21 games on two days of rest. During the regular season, Philadelphia was 20-21 as visitors, while Brooklyn was 23-18 as hosts and have the edge here getting points. 

In the last 13 + seasons, teams like theNets that allowed 125 or more points in a loss have gone 28-18 (61%) ATS in the playoffs

BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS  revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.PHILADELPHIA is 19-32 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins this season.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more 41-17 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - MIL Leads 1-0

Milwaukee began its pursuit of the franchise's first title since 1971 by cruising past Detroit, 121-86, in Game 1. It was the ninth-most lopsided NBA playoff game of the century and the biggest rout since the Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Boston Celtics, 130-86, in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals on May 19, 2017. I dont think it was a fluke, and Im betting the Bucks do more damage here tonight, but this time around the Motown crew open things up as well, with some offensive fireworks of their own as they try to avoid being embarrassed two games in a row, which will make for a higher scoring affair than the linesmakers expect.

DETROIT is 12-3 OVER  revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 32-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

The Celtics prevailed 84-74 in the best-of-7 opener.The Pacers, meanwhile, have rallied to win the series on two of the last three occasions when they lost Game 1 so Im not counting them out from the game 1 preview and still believe they have what it takes to compete. 

INDIANA is 15-7 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent this season.McMillan is 20-7 ATS in April games as the coach of INDIANA. 

The Pacers are 17-0 ATS covering by more than 10 ppg in the playoffs off a loss in which they had a BAP at least 9.5 points higher than their opponent and were 13-4 SU with none of the 4 SU losses coming by more than 6 points.

NBA  team (BOSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after scoring 85 points or less are 34-65 ATS L/5 seasons for ago against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - BOS Leads 1-0

The Celtics and Pacers combined to scored 158 points in Game 1, going way under the total. Both teams shot below 40% from the field. Both teams missed wide open shots on a consistent basis and now Im expecting a bounce back and a reversion to the norm and a much high scoring game then last time.

BOSTON is 25-10 OVER in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.2 ppg scored.

NBA team (INDIANA) - off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 42-17 OVER L/22 seasons for a 71 % conversion rate.

Play OVER

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - POR Leads 1-0

The first game of this series was low scoring ,but that matchup was an anomaly as compared to the 4 previous meetings between these teams this season which  were all high scoring affairs with 250, 231,237, 220 combined points scored. Im betting on a return to the previous type of offensive affairs in game 2 of this series.

PORTLAND is 12-1 OVER  in home games versus teams that are allowing - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 242.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are126-84 L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play Over

 Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - SAS Leads 1-0

Denver lost a101-96 decision to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the Western Conference quarterfinal series thanks to some atrocious shooting by key players. Note:The Nuggets  shot just 42% from the field and 6-of-28 from 3 and still almost won. Now in  a must-win situation for Denver as; (a loss drops the No. 2 seed in an 0-2 hole heading back to San Antonio for two games ) Im betting the Nuggets young guns nerves now settled  come out here and play like nbnbtheir hairs on fire and get us the win and cover.

NBA  play off seeds (1-3) have historically hit a 58%  conversion rate when playing as a home favorite after a loss and non-cover.

SAN ANTONIO is 8-18 ATS  in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons. DENVER is 12-3 ATS  in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. 

Play onDenver Nuggets

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

In true zig zag theory Im going to take the points here with the LA Clippers on a value spread. I know Golden State has owned this series of late, but I saw enough from them in game 1 to feel comfortable taking points with them here in game 2. 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-27 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. LA CLIPPERS are 23-10 ATS  vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. LA CLIPPERS are 14-5 ATS off a road loss this season.

NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a loss against a division rival are 94-47 ATS L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. 

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent offensive team (102 r more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102r more PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more are  60-90 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

Golden State prevailed by blocking 14 shots, limiting the Clippers to 40.4 percent shooting , but both still still a combined 225 points went on the board in game 1 of this series in the Warriors 121-104 win. Im now expecting theClippers to come out here more aggressively as they try to keep track with the explosive Dubs in a game I have pegged to go over the set total. Note: The LA CLIPPERS in their L/18 games off a road loss this season have combined to average for 235.2 ppg.

Play OVER

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The last playoff series to tip off in the NBA’s first round is the No. 5 Utah Jazz visiting the No. 4 Houston Rockets in the Western Conference on Sunday night. 

This is a rematch from last season’s Western Conference semifinals.  . The Rockets took the series  in five games, with every game in the series decided by at least eight points and Im betting this game will follow suit. Im betting on the Rockets super star  Harden who led the league in scoring at 36.1 ppg, more than 8 points better than No. 2 Paul George to once again lead the way . Note: Harden’s average is the most since Michael Jordan’s 37.1 in 1986-87.

NBA Underdogs (UTAH) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)are 17-62 ATS L/22 seasons for a  go against 79% conversion rate. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 4-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover 

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Rockets despite of their explosiveness rank 26th in the NBA in pace and own the 10 best D in the league, and they have gone under the set total in 14 of their L/19 games entering the play offs. Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz own the 4th best ppg D in the league, and bae all their successes and failures on their ability to play D, and here on the road in Houston Im betting they turn this tilt in a slug fest as they try to take the Rockets out of their flow, which will result in a lower score play off affair. 

HOUSTON is 24-9 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 13-5 UNDER  against Northwest division opponents this season.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in April games are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA team (HOUSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in April games are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

Boston ranked 8th in ppg defence this season and 16th in pace, and 14th in offence. Meanwhile, Indiana ranked 1st in ppg allowed, 24th in pace, and 22nd on offence and base all their successes and failures on this stopping abilities. Nothing will change today as they force an inconsistent Boston side, in operating in a defensive mode as well, in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

INDIANA is 15-4 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. INDIANA is 22-8 UNDER   versus good shooting teams - making 46%or more  of their shots this season

NBA team (BOSTON/INDIANA) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in April games are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA/BOSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in April games are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

 Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Raptors are an explosive side, but their D, was key to their successes this season and ranked 4th in defensive efficiency this season. Meanwhile, Orlando, ranked 5th in ppg allowed behind the 25th ranked pace and the 24th ppg ranked offence and obviously got to the post season thanks to their methodic defensive nature and nothing will change today. 

ORLANDO is 21-8 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better ) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg. 

Clifford is 23-11 UNDER (+10.9 Units) versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or better of their shots as the coach of ORLANDO with a combine average of 211 ppg scored. 

Play  UNDER 

Im expecting the Toronto Raptors to shut the Orlando Magic down today, on their way to a DD win. Toronto after recent early departures from the play offs  have a huge chip on their shoulders and will be out to get some real momentum going. ( LATE STEAM)

Magic are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games.

NBA Underdogs (ORLANDO) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 17-45 L/22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto Raptors to cover

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1

Brooklyn has come along way and are now in the play offs, for the first time in a very long time, and Im betting they will be sky high here and leave everything on the floor here in game 1. I know the Nets dont have much play off experience but it must be noted  that  During the last 13 seasons, road teams without playoff experience are 74-47-4 (61.2%) ATS in the first round when taking on  an opponent that made the postseason the year before. Meanwhile, Philadelphia enters these play offs suffering with a few nagging injuries to key players Joel Embiid(knee)  and Jimmy Butler (back) and could find themselves in a real battle. Note: During their meetings in the  regular season, the Nets outscored the 76ers by 40 points in 58 minutes with Embiid off the floor. 

Nets have the deeper bench  in this series and get the nod from me to cover in game 1.

Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.Nets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.Nets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.Nets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic.

 76ers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Atlantic.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

NBA Home underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 19-44 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  70% conversion rate.

Brooklyn to cover 

Denver can claim the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with a win over Minnesota on Wednesday night. So you can bet they will play hard shutdown basketball here. Look for the banged up Minnesota Wolves to just go through the motions here, in the high altitudes of the Mile High City in what Im betting will be a lower scoring game the public might expect. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 211.3 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MINNESOTA) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 47-18 UNDER L2 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Bucks' playoff position is set as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they'll sit Most Valuable Player candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo and starting center Brook Lopez to prepare for the playoffs , thus the advantage goes to the Thunder to get us the cover. 

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a game where they covered the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 105-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The Hawks will play an Indiana team with little left to play  for after locking up a play off spot and that could be resting a majority of their starters here tonight in Atlanta as they try to stay healthy and fresh for the play offs. Atlanta has been one of the best teams down the stretch drive and have shown a lot of promise for next season and are motivated to give their fans a good send off this evening.ATLANTA is 20-11 ATS  in the second half of the season this season. 

Play on Atlanta Hawks to cover 

Houston broke its own NBA record by making 27 3-pointers in Sunday's 149-113 home victory over the Phoenix Suns and enter this game with a full head of steam and ready to keep their momentum in high gear entering the play offs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City despite of needing to ramp things up, are struggling in alot of facets of their game, and after watching them barely get past Minnesota last time out, Im betting their over matched vs an explosive opponent. 

HOUSTON is 15-7 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less this season.

Play on Houston Rockets to cover 

The Utah Jazz were piling up  victories and creating momentum for the postseason until  the lowly LA Lakers upset them by out working them. Needless to say coach Quinn  Snyder was left irate. Now Im betting the Jazz coming out here with a big time effort and bounce back vs the Denver Nuggets a team they have beaten 8 straight times and matchup well against. 

UTAH is 20-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. 

NBA Underdogs (DENVER) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 17-61 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. ( Denver lost at Portland last time out but covered)

Play on Utah to cover 

 After suffering a ugly 113-109 loss to the host Los Angeles Lakers the Jazz were embarrassed and their coach extremely cranky. Tonight Im betting on a rebound . Im alos betting on a more focused group that will concentrate on what has made the Jazz such a potent team down the stretch and that is the ability to play a top tier brand of defensive hoops. Utah ranks 3rd in ppg allowed and 2nd in in defensive efficiency.  Meanwhile, Denver has also been playing more conservatively in transition as the season winds down, and have seen a combined average of just 210.6 ppg scored in their L/5 trips to the hardwood.  This game has the makings of a hard fought defensive divisional affair. 

Under is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 14-3 in Nuggets last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 games following a straight up loss.Under is 21-6 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 17-5 in Nuggets last 22 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 17-5 in Nuggets last 22 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 overall.Under is 10-3 in Nuggets last 13 road games.Under is 10-3 in Nuggets last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 6-2 in Nuggets last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-3 in Nuggets last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 12-4 in Nuggets last 16 vs. Western Conference.Under is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 games following a ATS win.

Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a straight up loss.Under is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 games following a ATS loss.Under is 8-1 in Jazz last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-2 in Jazz last 9 home games.Under is 10-3 in Jazz last 13 vs. Western Conference.Under is 14-5 in Jazz last 19 Tuesday games.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 

Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Utah.Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings.

 Play UNDER

Minnesota is depleted with injuries, and the Raptors despite of rapping up their play off spot, are still trying to enter the playoffs with momentum, and should be well prepared to lay down a beatdown here. 

NBA  road favorites like Toronto between -3 and -10 points on the spread averaging 99+ points per game are 90-44-3 ATS L/137 for a 67.2% conversion rate after allowing 55 or more points in the first half of their last two games.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 4-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover 

Despite losing four straight games, the Detroit Pistons sit in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and need a win badly here and should come out ready to perform vs a Grizzlies side most likely playing out the string. 

Pistons HC Casey is 15-3 ATS  in home games after 4 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached in his career. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 4-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

“The Ugliest National Championship” in history is what many are calling this game. But one of these ugly Bettys is going to get my money, and that is Virginia.  I know Texas Tech has looked tremendous, in this tournament , but the Cavs wont be easily intimidated by the Raiders style of play especially with key cog  6-foot-10 Tariq Owens expected to play at less than 100% ( ankle injury).  Meanwhile Virginia has remained steady from day 1 of this season, and are playing with a chip on their shoulders, after some recent early exits from the big dance. Both have top tier defences, but in my humble opinion Virginia is more battle tested after competing against teams like Duke this season. Im nit taking anything away from Texas Tech , but their win against Michigan State was in my humble opinion their best of the season, which has tainted this line. Note: VIRGINIA is 6-0 ATS  in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 39% or better over the last 3 seasons. VIRGINIA is 6-0 ATS in road games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite this season. ( The Cavs beat Auburn by 1 point in the Final 4 as 5 point + chalk)

CBB favorite (VIRGINIA) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less  PPG) after 15+ games, after a win by 6 points or less are 62-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Virginia to cover 

The home team has won each meeting this season , with the Pelicans winning 149-129 on Oct. 19 in New Orleans and the Kings winning 122-117 on Dec. 23 in Sacramento. Im betting on the home team giving their fans something to cheer about here in their home finale as they try to finish the season at .500. 

SACRAMENTO is 9-0 ATS  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season with the average point differential clicking in at 14 ppg.

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 3-27 ATS for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average point diff clicking in at 13.9 ppg. 

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover 

There is still alot to play for when Denver and Portland go head to head tonight as they jockey for post season seeding. The Nuggets took a  109-100 win over the Trail Blazers on Friday in Denver and now in the rematch expect another tightly contested Defensive affair that remains on the low side of the total. Quote:"He was phenomenal,"  HC Malone said of the 6-foot-7 Craig. "His defense, his offense -- everything he did out there."The Nuggets were aggressive with their defense and the referees let a lot of the rough stuff go."It was very physical out there," said Portland center Enes Kanter, who scored 24 points and grabbed seven rebounds. "Their big men -- Jokic, Millsap and (Mason) Plumlee -- they were hitting me extra. But it's the NBA -- no complaining." END QUOTE Rinse and repeat here . 

Under is 14-2 in Nuggets last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 12-2 in Nuggets last 14 games following a straight up win.Under is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 road games.Under is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 17-4 in Nuggets last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 21-5 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 12-3 in Nuggets last 15 vs. Western Conference.Under is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 games following a ATS win.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 overall.Under is 20-6 in Nuggets last 26 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 19-7 in Nuggets last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

 Play UNDER 

The Brooklyn Nets grabbed a  up a huge victory on  Saturday night  to boost their  NBA playoff chances, and  grabbing another  win here would be huge for them in their chase for post season play against a team that has owned them of late  .  Im betting they come out here shooting darts, and push a the capable offense of the Pacers into a faster paced game. I know  These teams play converging styles of basketball, but when they met earlier this season, Indiana took a  132-112 win in  Indianapolis on Oct. 20 and Im betting on another fairly high scoring tilt here that eclipses this total. 

BROOKLYN is 13-4 OVER  in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.9 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 20-8 OVER (+11.2 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230 ppg scored,

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning teams are 40-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.\

Play OVER 

The Detroit Pistons will host the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday in a matchup of teams still competing for a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference.With that said, Im betting on a hard fought physical affair that will focus on both teams trying to be mistake free which will make for muted affair . 

DETROIT is 22-11 UNDER  after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of those 33 games clicking in at 210.6 ppg.The Pistons  have gone under 12 straight times a as a favorite off a loss when Andre Drummond had negative plus/minus in each of their last three games with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored.Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.Hornets Borrego is 16-4 UNDER  after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread in all games he has coached  with a combined average of 211.3 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DETROIT) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight games.  are 34-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

With Toronto firmly gripping on the No.2 seed in the East its all about staying healthy. Meanwhile, Miami have lost  three straight games to fall out of playoff position in the Eastern Conference and desperately need a win  and will play like their hair is on fore here this afternoon. 

MIAMI is 7-0 ATS in road games against Atlantic division opponents this season.

MIAMI is 21-9 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Heat are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.Heat are 45-17-2 ATS in their last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Heat are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games.Heat are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Heat are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.

Raptors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.Raptors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Southeast.Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.

Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Toronto.Heat are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Toronto is 9-24-1 ATS at home in non-division game.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 68-115 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rte for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover 

The Spartans have faired well against havoc style defenses in their last two games against  Duke and LSU  and Im betting they will be able to deal with what Texas Tech will bring.  Izzo and company can play any style that is thrown at them. Remember what the great Bruce Lee said,“You must be shapeless, formless, like water. When you pour water in a cup, it becomes the cup. When you pour water in a bottle, it becomes the bottle. When you pour water in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Water can drip and it can crash. Become like water my friend.”  END QUOTE:

Well Izzo is the Bruce Lee of basketball. A true master.( Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is 22-0 SU   as a favorite in the NCAA Tourney when coming off a SUATS victory )

Tonight Im betting the key will be The Spartans  ability to control the board as Texas Tech only ranks 188th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. I know alot is being said, about the Elite D, that the Raiders own, but the Spartans defense is  also  top tier ranking ninth overall in adjusted defensive efficiency and second in 2-point shooting percentage while smothering  opponents to a 31.2%  conversion rate from beyond the arc.

MICHIGAN ST is 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game after 15+ games this season .

Teams like Texas Tech n the Final Four Round if they lost SU in the first round of their conference tourney are 0-9 ATS. No.1 

Teams like the Raiders who beat No. 1 seed in the Elite 8 round are only 1-12 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in Final Four games since 1992 , when riding a 3-game ATS win streak. 

No. 1 seed in the Elite 8 round are only 1-12 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in Final Four games since 1992.

Play on Michigan State to cover 

NCAA Tournament - Final Four - US Bank Stadium - Minneapolis, MN

From day one of this season, I liked Virginia to have a very strong chance at winning it all, and Im not about to change my mind here as Im betting the Cavaliers defence will trump Pearls explosive offence. It's a old adage that offence can get you to a championship but defence will win it for you, and nothing changes in this battle.  Auburn in their first final four appearance in the history of the program  has had a great run , but Im betting that their hot streak will end vs the last No.1 Seed still in the tournament, Virginia. It must be noted that  Final Four and championship games  have not produced alot of  winning underdog tickets. Since 2005 pups are just 16-25-1 ATS.  Up trending dogs  are public darling, but have been less than profitable during the above mentioned span cashing just 5 of the L/14 times. Lower seed in the Final Four or finals are just 9-20 ATS and 5-24 straight up. 

Dating back 34 seasons, 14 programs have made their Final Four debuts. Of those teams, only four have  advanced  to the championship game. 

VIRGINIA is 8-2 ATS  in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.  VIRGINIA is 11-1 ATS  after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season. VIRGINIA is 9-0 ATS  in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.

CBB favorite (VIRGINIA) - an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 32-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Virginia 

When the NBA playoffs start next week, the Milwaukee Bucks know they will have home-court advantage throughout so resting players and making sure their healthy is more important than winning this game tonight against the visiting Brooklyn Nets who are desperate for wins as their quest for a post season spot is still up for grabs.The most recent meeting was Monday in Brooklyn when the Bucks led by 15 after the first quarter and posted a 131-121 win.but Im betting all out do or die effort from the Nets here. 

BROOKLYN is 11-3 ATS  in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. 

BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24  or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Brooklyn to cover 

The Sacramento Kings are geared up to halt a stretch of 12 straight losing seasons and Im betting they will play hard tonight and get is the cover vs the banged up  Utah Jazz who are dealing with a boatload full of injuries and may limit key player minutes tonight in attempt to get healthy with the play offs approaching. 

PG] 04/05/2019 - Raul Neto is "?" Friday vs Sacramento ( Ankle )[G] 04/04/2019 - Kyle Korver is downgraded to OUT Friday vs Sacramento ( Knee )[SF] 04/04/2019 - Jae Crowder is upgraded to probable Friday vs Sacramento ( Thigh )[F] 04/04/2019 - Derrick Favors is downgraded to OUT Friday vs Sacramento ( Back )[PG] 04/03/2019 - Ricky Rubio is "?" Friday vs Sacramento ( Hamstring )[PG] 03/18/2019 - Dante Exum is out indefinitely ( Knee )

UTAH is 1-9 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.SACRAMENTO is 10-1 ATS  versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Sacramento to cover 

Two teams with really nothing to play for go head to head tonight in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total.

Grizzlies own the 30th ranked pace in the league, and are ranked  30th in offence, and 9th in defensive rating and here on the road today will try to turn this into a grinding sleepfest. 

The Mavericks have gone under in 9 of their L/12 overall since Jan 07, 2019 as a favorite with a combined average 211 ppg scored. 

DALLAS is 13-4 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 209.6 ppg. DALLAS is 9-1 UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. 

MEMPHIS is 16-6 UNDER  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored.  MEMPHIS is 12-2 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MEMPHIS) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 86-46 UNDER L/22 seasons are 65% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER 

Toronto  has won five consecutive games since Lamb banked in a half-court heave at the buzzer for a 115-114 victory on March 24 and continue to ramp for the play offs against a team that is exhausted as they have feverishly chased a play off spot and off a 4 game road trip . I know Toronto can afford to take the pedal of metal , but their trying to stay in high gear entering the play offs and are in revenge mode for a 115-114 loss they suffered to the Hornets at home back in late March and will be ready to make their opponents pay here, especially knowing how desperate the Hornets are for wins. 

CHARLOTTE is 4-20 ATS  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, off a road win are 71-38 ATS L/5 seasons for 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto Raptors 

Sacramento plays a one way attack orientated basketball behind the 3rd ranked pace and  10 best offensive output in the NBA and their D, remains suspect allowing an 114.9 ppg which ranks 26th in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have been playing very wide open basketball for quite a while as well, as is evident by going over in 5 straight games with a combined average of 231 ppg going on the board. Note: The Cavaliers rank 30th in D efficiency in the league and tonight Im betting that will be exasperated in a tilt I have pegged to eclipse this total. 

 NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SACRAMENTO) - after a combined score of 225 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 114-57 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play OVER 

 The Philadelphia 76ers took part in a run and gun affair last night in Atlanta that they lost130-122, and  now tonight on tired legs with the likely hood of Joel Embiid not playing and  Jimmy Butler possibly resting and not playing or seeing limited action  Im betting the 76ers will not be ready to run and gun and instead try to figure out a way to play better defence against a top tier opponent  the Bucks. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is also short handed  from a bench perspective and banged up despite of Kris Middleton supposedly playing tonight and star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court. No matter how much each plays , Im still expecting a more defensive orientated post season type affair that will feature more defensive postures than offensive onslaughts despite of both sides obvious abilities to put points on the board. 

PHILADELPHIA is 19-7 UNDER after a combined score of 245 points or more since 1996 with a combined average of 207 ppg on the scoreboard.

PHILADELPHIA is 19-9 UNDER  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in April games are 45-19 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 62-27 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 This game is being projected to be high scoring, but Im betting the number is just to high despite of how the public views these teams and what kind of scoring output should be expected. It must be noted that MARSHALL is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 157.8 ppg scored.MARSHALL is 6-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 157.9 ppg scored. MARSHALL is 9-2 UNDER  in a home game where the total is 160 or more  this season.

WI-GREEN BAY is 22-9 UNDER  off a home win over the last 3 seasons with combined average of 151.1 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Thundering Herd last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 6-0 in Thundering Herd last 6 home games.Under is 7-1 in Thundering Herd last 8 non-conference games.Under is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 overall.Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Under is 5-0 in Phoenix last 5 Thursday games.Under is 4-0 in Phoenix last 4 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1 in Phoenix last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Phoenix last 5 non-conference games.

Play UNDER 

The Rockets and Clippers are two of the hottest teams heading down the stretch of the regular season with Los Angeles going 16-4 in their past 20 games and Houston winning 17 of the their past 20 games. However, from a head to matchup perspective my own power rankings like the Rockets to deliver a winning ticket for us tonight. I know the  Clippers won 115-112 on Oct. 21 in Los Angeles and Oct. 26 in Houston, the Clippers won by 20, 133-113 , but now with revenge on board Im betting on a primo effort from the Rockets.Note:HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Dallas looks like they have stopped tanking, and have won 2 straight games, and well positioned  to make it 3 wins in a row vs a Minnesota group that has not played well on the road this season going 10-29 SU.  Dallas also won both games in this series this season. 

DALLAS is 12-3 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season. MINNESOTA is 2-14 ATS  in road games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. 

Timberwolves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.Timberwolves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Timberwolves are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, in April games are 13-36  ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Dallas to cover 

The Hornets  are 0-3 on a road trip that concludes Wednesday night in New Orleans with Charlotte's playoff hopes hanging by a thread . Needless to say they are desperate for a win and tonight I expect they leave everything on the floor and get us the cover. 

CHARLOTTE is 13-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

NEW ORLEANS is 4-12 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. 

NBA Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more, in April games are 15-42 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate! 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

The young Atlanta Hawks are playing hard, and showing promise for the future behind emerging super star Trae Young . Meanwhile, Philadelphia is just trying to stay healthy before the play offs begin, and tonight will be without  star Joel Embiid is OUT next 2 games ( Rest )and the banged up Jimmy Butler .  Note:The Hawks are 2-1 against the 76ers this season, including a 129-127 home victory on March 23, when Young had 32 points and 11 assists. QUOTE :"We clipped Philly last time, so I'm sure they are going to come in with a little bit of vengeance," Bazemore said on Fox Sports Southeast."With a couple of games left in the season, they are trying to be in the best position they can. At the same time, we're still trying to play spoiler and have a bunch of guys finish the season strong." END QUOTE.

Im betting Philly despite fo wanting revenge, still wont come out here with guns blazing as the bigger picture is more important. Look for Atlanta to hold serve and get us the cover.

Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

76ers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southeast.76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Denver enters this game playing at a more methodical pace of late, then was the case earlier this season, with defence being the mainstay of their successes and failures which is evident by seeing 16 of their L/19 games stay under the set total. Nothing will change tonight vs the explosive Warriors, who also are now into play off preparation mode and also paying attention to their defensive game especially in transition as is evident by seeing 12 of their L/15 games stay on the low side of the total. 

Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 games following a ATS loss.Under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 road games.Under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 12-3 in Nuggets last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 18-5 in Nuggets last 23 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 21-7 in Nuggets last 28 overall.Under is 6-2 in Nuggets last 8 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Warriors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 home games.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a ATS win.Under is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 12-3 in Warriors last 15 overall.Under is 8-2 in Warriors last 10 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 games following a straight up win.Under is 14-5 in Warriors last 19 vs. NBA Northwest. Under is 35-17 in Warriors last 52 Tuesday games.

HC  Kerr  of Golden State in his L/25  home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season has seen a combined average of 210.5 ppg scored.

GOLDEN STATE is 21-6 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.3 ppg scored. 

DENVER is 12-3 UNDER  in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203 ppg.

DENVER is 24-11 UNDER  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 218 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 34-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NIT - Semifinals - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY

TCU matches up well vs Texas. It must be noted that TCU is 11-3 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. 

TEXAS is 4-19 ATS  as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997

CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 25-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (TCU) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 74-33 ATS  L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on TCU to cover