The Heat base all their successes and failures on their ability to play gritty shutdown defence, and tonight against the explosive Philadelphia 76ers Im expecting more of the same action. With Philadelphia expected to play without the injured Joel Embiid ( knee) Im betting the Sixers ability flow freely in offence will also be hindered. This above combination has a high probability of making for a lower scoring game than the linesmkaers are expecting and thus Im recommending a under wager here . 

The Heat rank third in the league in points per game allowed (105.7 ppg) and 27th in point scored ( 105.1 ppg). MIAMIs L/20  road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 203.1 ppg scored.

Brown is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 consecutive division games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. (This occurred just before the all star break)

The Heat are 0-19  L/19 UNDER as a road dog with rest off a win as a dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score 189.9 ppg scored. Non of the 19 games saw more than 213 combined points scored.

The 76er are 0-14 UNDER  off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 193.8 ppg scored. None of the 14 games eclipsed this total.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 36-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a win against a division rival are 35-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the  UNDER 

Two NBA bottom feeders go head to head tonight in Cleveland with the Suns visiting the Cavs.  . The Suns have lost 15 straight games  , while the Cavaliers dropped 23 of their past 27 games. If th Suns lose they will have broken a franchise record, and tonight because of their embarrassing scenario will be extremely primed to get a win.  QUOTE:"Fresh start. We have a stretch of games, very winnable games for us," Suns shooting guard Devin Booker told reporters. "Cleveland, Atlanta, Miami -- so we're about to go out East for the last time and hopefully come out with some big wins." END QUOTE. If there is a game that the Suns can win its this one and and they as a group will be hell bent on getting the victory making them a viable side to back. 

 Cleveland in 19 non conference games this season has seen a averagepoint differential of 14.4 ppg.CLEVELAND is 10-23 ATS  against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CLEVELAND) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 12-39 SU l22 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 25-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Phoenix to cover 

My projections have made this total closer to 149.5 -150 this according to my estimates we have value on this offered totals number. Both these teams are lighting it up offensively of late, and nothing Im betting will change tonight.

Coll of Charleston has scored 83 or more points in 4 straight games. William Mary has scored 84 or more points in 3 of their L/4 overall. 

WM & MARY is 8-0 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 180.1 ppg scored.WM & MARY is 9-0 OVER in home games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 173.3 ppg scored.

WM & MARY is 12-0 OVER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with. combined average of 175 ppg scored.WM & MARY is 14-2 OVER  in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14   or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 172.5 ppg scored. 

COLL OF CHARLESTON is 12-3 OVER versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 157.6 ppg going on the score board. 

CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (COLL OF CHARLESTON) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games are 68-33 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

  Greg Marshall’s Shockers basketball program is down quite. few notches this season,  for past incarnations, and are far from the dangerous opponent they have been in the recent past as they're AAC  12-11 SU would indicate. The Shockers have played better of late, but Im sure their in an emotional  letdown spot  after tangling with the Cincinnati Bearcats in a hard fought loss last time out and susceptible to a down effort in what will be back to back road games. Meanwhile Frank Haith’s Tulsa  team is out looking for revenge for a DD loss as visitors to Wichita earlier this month. It must be noted that the Canes are  14-1-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge, and  7-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Considering Wichita State is 0-16 L/16 SU in this series when made underdogs  I like our odds here for cashing a ticket on short chalk line. 

Play on Tulsa to cover 

Gtech plays basketball at a methodical pace, behind a offence that can't produce with any consistency, and thus their games consistently go under as is evident by 9 of the L/10 staying below the offered totals number. Meanwhile, Pittsburghs strength is their ability to play decent defence, and have allowed just 67.2 ppg on the road this season while their offence has converted for under 67 ppg on the road while shooting a lowly 39.4 % from the Field. These teams most recent meetings have all stayed below this offered Total with a combined average of 118.6 ppg scored, and Im betting a similar output tonight. 

PITTSBURGH is 20-6 UNDER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 20-8 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. 

GEORGIA TECH is 10-1 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog this season with a combined average of 122.9 ppg scored. Pastner is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of GEORGIA TECH with a combined average of 121 ppg scored.

818 Georgia Tech / Pitt UNDER

 Northwestern is ranked first in the Big Ten and 12th nationally in three-point field goal defense, holding teams to 29.6 percent, with Ohio State sporting two top 15 down town shooters in their lineup this will be a pivotal factor in muting a lot of the Buckeyes scoreboard out put,  which in turn will  directly contribute to this being a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect. Note: Northwestern D has allowed 59 points exact in 3 of their L/4 games and should once again be hard to score on here behind top tier rebounding work. Ohio Stats D, is also in top form having allowed 52,63-62 respectively in their L/3 tips to the hardwood. with all three going under the set total.  Tonight Im betting  this will be a hardcore physical defensive battle that stays under the set total.

NORTHWESTERN is 16-4 UNDER after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 126.2 ppg scored and s 6-0 UNDER after playing a game as a road underdog this season with a combined average 121 ppg scored. NORTHWESTERN is 8-0 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 125.4 ppg going on the board. 

CBB Home teams against the total (OHIO ST) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 38-17 UNDER L22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

814 Ohio State /Northwestern UNDER

The Razorbacks have struggled a little bit over the past week and have lost their last three games, but overall this team has been competitive and have tremendous talent on their bench thanks to one of the better recruiting classes in the nation and are viable dogs here at explosive Auburn. 

 Razorbacks are 12-13 SU at Auburn, but the 12 wins  ties for second-most by the Razorbacks  victories against any SEC team.The teams split the last four meetings but the Razorbacks have won 10 of the last 12. Head coach Mike Anderson is 8-2 versus Auburn as Arkansas head coach.

In the last three meetings between these sides the Hogs have started quickly and outscored the Tigers by almost 7 points going into the 2nd half.Im betting they will be all over the Tigers again, making them very solid underdogs here in this spot if my projections are correct. 

Some key matchup stats suggest Arkansas must not be disrespected here as underdogs. 

Arkansas is third in the SEC in turnover margin (2.6) and ranks second in turnovers forced (16.48) — which ranks 19th nationally.

Arkansas (1.17) and Auburn (1.16) rank 2-3 in the SEC in assist-to- turnover ratio,

Arkansas (406) and Auburn (379) rank 2-3 in the SEC in assists.

Auburn (9.1 avg) and Arkansas (8.1 avg) rank among the NCAA top 25 in steals.

CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (AUBURN) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games are 31-70 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arkansas to cover 

UNLV enters the game dumping the cash for their supporters on a regular basis of late , failing to cover 6 of their L/7 . Meanwhile, Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in their L/5 games , and viable bets here vs a poor travelling Rebels squad that is 5-6 SU/ATS on the road this season and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 away.

WYOMING is 7-0 ATS  in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

UNLV is 2-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. UNLV is 9-22 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Wyoming to cover

 Avery Johnson’s Alabama enters this game with one goal and that is to get a win here, because if they lose this game  their tournament chances are probably gone.  After two ugly blowout losses they are desperate. With the Tide playing with a sense of urgency Im betting they cross the finish line ahead of the Aggies and get us the win and cover here tonight. 

( note: TexasA&M beat Alabama 81-80 as road dogs about a month agao and now the Tide have revenge on board)

 . ALABAMA is 7-0 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.ALABAMA is 8-0 ATS  after scoring 55 points or less over the last 3 seasons. 

Johnson is 11-1 ATS  after scoring 55 points or less as the coach of ALABAMA.

 A&M is 9-18 ATS in all home games over the last 2 seasons

CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ALABAMA) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite 37-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Alabama to cover 

 The Tennessee Vols come off a lopsided loss vs Kentucky that abruptly snapped their undefeated SEC streak this past weekend and are now expected by the public  to angrily come storming out here tonight  and hand out  a beating on hapless Vanderbilt.  The Vols might snatch the win , but how motivated they will be after that big time clash and negative result is something that Im questioning, as its never easy getting back the same energy levels immediately after having taken part in a proverbial heavy weight battle for any competitor. Especially if that competitor was knocked out and humbled in the process.  Add to that the the price on the line offered seems a little exuberant , considering this is a rivalry game that has seen Vandy cover 6 of the L/7 meetings. I know Im playing physiologist here in my perception of this matchup, but from an empirical standpoint my numbers also suggest we have a  mathematical edge on the line no matter what the  situation and thus offers up line value for advantage players. I know it's not easy betting against the Vols, and backing a struggling side like the Commies but its all about edges, and win or lose this methodology must always be in place in my humble opinion. With that said, Im recommending we take the points. 

Drew is 10-1 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more  assists/game after 15+ games as the coach of VANDERBILT. 

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 

When these teams played back on January 3rd they combined for 125 points. Im betting on a similar output here today. It must also be noted that Siena is off a 107-100 offensive slugfest last time out, and could easily still be a run and gun mood here vs a St.Peters team allowing more than 70 ppg on the road this season. 

CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (SIENA) - off a home loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (20-40%) are 35-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB Road teams where the total is 119.5 or less (ST PETERS) - after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 34-10 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

West Virginia is down quite a few notches thanks to inconsistent backcourt, from past Huggins program incarnations, while Kansas State is proving that they are a Big 12 contender. Earlier this season, the Mounties lost a hard fought 71-69 battle on the road in this series, and will be primed for pay back here in the rematch at home despite of being short handed and in a complete tailspin. Note: The Wildcats are expected to be without Dean Wade and Cartier Diarra.

Bob Huggins hasn’t lost to K-State at home since 2013, and despite of what their records might indicate are plausible home dogs in this spot. 

Play on West Virginia to cover 

The Bison host North Carolina Central in their home finale Monday (Feb. 18) for Senior Night, and will be primed to perform but according to my projections , the wrong team is favoured , and the line should be flipped. 

 Each team is coming off of a loss this past Saturday. Howard lost 85-81 at home to NC A&T, while NC Central fell 75-71 in overtime at Norfolk State. 

NC Central is a senior dependent side with  seniors. Raasean Davis, Zacarry Douglas, Jibri Blount and Larry McJr.   accounting for 56 percent of the team's scoring this year and 59 percent of all Eagles points over the team's last five game. Im betting these older guys will be key to us getting a cover here tonight behind a D that has allowed 63.4 points per game in 12 conference games. That will be key against a Howard side, that leads the league in ppg. 

Play on North Carolina Central to cover 

 MEAC foes meet as FAMU squares off against SC St.

Florida A&M has won its last three road games, scoring 74 points, while allowing 70 per game.Florida A&M has been playing shut down defence allowing opposing teams to 67.2 points per game, the second-lowest ppg among all MEAC teams. The Rattlers have allowed just 63.1 points per game against conference opponents.Look for their defense and key offensive cogs   Justin Ravenel, Isaiah Martin and Tracy Hector who have collectively accounted for 42 percent of the team’s scoring this season and 71% of all the Rattlers points over the last five games to be the catalysts for cover here on the road. 

Rattlers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Rattlers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Rattlers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Rattlers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Rattlers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.Rattlers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Mid-Eastern Athletic.

Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. MEC.

Play on Florida A&M to cover 

The local rivalry is back on Monday afternoon, with Idaho making the trip up to Cheney to take on Eastern Washington.  Idaho (4-20, 1-12 BSC) defeated Eastern Washington (9-15, 7-6 BSC), 74-71, in the first meeting in Moscow and actually matchup well  in head to head systems analysis. 

IDAHO is 34-19 ATS  in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game .E WASHINGTON is 7-16 ATS in all lined games this season. 

CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (IDAHO) - after allowing 75 points or more 5 straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 46-14 ATS L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Idaho to cover 

The Hokies are off two straight wins vs  Georgia Tech and then Pittsburgh this past Saturday  and  now are primed to play a game they have had circled for a long time vs their instate rivals the Virginia Cavs. The Hokies are particularly motivated here thanks to being pounded by a 81-59 count last month by the merciless Cavs and will be out for payback here tonight. I know its never easy going agains the Wahoos, but this situation offers some clear value based on past trends and point spread  mathematics. Note. Virginia Tech is 15-5 ATS log in its last 20 home games when playing with revenge and 8-1 ATS at home with revenge in the series.Virginia Tech is 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.Virginia Tech is also 13-0 ATS L/13 at home as a dog when seeking revenge. 

Play on Virginia Tech to cover 

I have analyzed the rosters and matchups for this contest and Im now releasing a very viable point-spread selection. I will say its been a while since I bet a All star fromat game, but this one has enough value that Im willing to recommend we pull the trigger. 

Alot is being made of Super star LeBron James side, but the Greek Freak Antetokounmpo and center Joel Embiid and Thunder forward Paul George,Stephen Curry and Kemba Walker (playing at home in Charlotte) are a big strong group with heaps of athletic prowess and will not make life easy for James and company.With Russell Westbrook and Middleton coming off the bench this Giannis group is dangerous and a good bet in my opinion getting points. 

Take the points with Team Giannis

 LUC  after last years huge run that took them deep into the NCAAA tourney has become a distant memory for most, but despite of not being as prolific as last season still   lead the MVC with a 9-4 record . Today they could summon up what made them great last season vs a Missouri State team that embarrassed them back in January  by a unbelievable 70-35 blowout score that stung more than a locker room wet towel to the cannolis.  Now with huge revenge on board   Im betting on a huge effort and payback scenario . It must be noted that Missouri State is just 5-15 SU and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games and  despite of that above mentioned victory are just  2-7 ATS mark in this series of late, and have failed to cover 4 of their 5 as  visitors.  

MISSOURI ST is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game over the last 2 season.LOYOLA-IL is 21-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.LOYOLA-IL is 6-0 ATS  after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

CBB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MISSOURI ST) - after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less are 16-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Loyola Chicago

In its most recent action, Tulane (4-19) dropped an 80-57 decision against Tulsa in New Orleans on Thursday. there D, was atrocious in that game, and Im betting Houston(24-1) will light them up here today, and Tulane will chase , which in turn will make for a high scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

The last two meetings in this series went over the total, and 7 of the L/9 meetings overall. 

TULANE is 11-2 OVER  after 2 straight losses by 15 points or more and  is 8-1 OVER  in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 152 pp scored.HOUSTON is 21-9 OVER  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less  turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. 

CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (HOUSTON) - off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 45-11 OVER  L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

According to my projections Pacific in their current form are the superior side and get the nod here on a pickem line in a revenge scenario.

SANTA CLARA is 0-6 ATS in home games off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 60 points over the last 3 season whihc was the case last time out. PACIFIC is 9-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 season.

PACIFIC is 8-1 ATS  in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or more turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons and is 8-1 ATS in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. 

CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (PACIFIC) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 41-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pacific to cover 

Both these  teams can  play hardcore  defense , as is evident by  the Cats ranking 36th in the nation allowing 64.8 PPG, and 18th vs the downtown 3-ball at 29.7%.On offence Northwestern ranks 300th ranked scoring offense and will once again struggle to score here vs a Huskers  side that are ranked 18th in the nation allowing teams to score only 63.4 PPG, and rank 29th in the nation allowing the opposition to make just 40.2%  of their FGs. Everything points to this being a fairly low scoring affair base don my own totals projections. 

NEBRASKA is 8-1 UNDER  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. NEBRASKA is 9-1 UNDER  vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.NEBRASKA is 9-1 UNDER  after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

NORTHWESTERN is 23-12 UNDER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.NORTHWESTERN is 17-8 UNDER (+8.2 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 season.NORTHWESTERN is 7-0 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.NORTHWESTERN is 10-3 UNDER  against conference opponents this season.NORTHWESTERN is 20-9 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.

740 Nebraska/ Northwestern UNDER

The Vols  are 4-point underdogs  in this spot-- which makes  for a greatly value wagering  situation behind the nation's No. 1 team . Tennessee is 11-0 in the SEC and winning league games by an average of 16.6 points per contest, but yet here we are getting points with them, as they face a behemoth public favourite. Don't get me wrong I have all the respect in the World for the Cats, but this is strictly a mathematical play, with a group that is every bit as good as the home side if not better. I know LSU is off a loss vs LSU, and are primed to bounce back and show the world the SEC is still theirs for the taking, but the Vols will not be an easy out, which makes for a viable wagering proposition.The Vols' 23-1 SU record features five wins over top-50 KenPom teams -- most notably neutral-court victories over Gonzaga and Louisville and will not give-up a 19-game winning streak easily vs Kentucky. Note:TENNESSEE is 14-4 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

 This 5-returning starter Harvard squad  played last night and got a win vs Princeton and are in top form.  These kids play smart, and will be ready to grab a victory on back to back nights and  are 6-2  ATS in the last eight matchups with Penn when playing without rest. With Harvard out looking to get revenge  for a loss in last seasons Ivy tournament 68-65 you can payback will be a priority here and a rally call for the Tide.   Note:HARVARD is 6-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

HC Donahue of Penn is 9-22 ATS  in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37%  or more of their attempts after 15+ games in all games and is 4-12 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game as the coach of PENNSYLVANIA.

Play on Harvard to cover 

Iowa has had most of this week off and could be rusty here vs a pesky Rutgers side that is capable of upsetting anyone in the Big 10 in their current form.Note: HC McCaffery is 4-12 ATS in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest as the coach of IOWA and is 4-12 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons. The Scarlet Knights in took out Iowa 80-64 home win on Jan. 17, 2018 and get my support again getting points.  

Play on Rutgers to cover

Eagles enter the game on a three-game winning streak vs Gardner-Webb a strong home team that is undefeated there this season. But Winthrop is a strong enough group to come out of this with a win. 

Winthrop is 4-1 on the road in league play and has won five of the last seven away from home and have to be respected. Winthrop is the league's top scoring team at 85.6 ppg and Gardner-Webb is third at 80.0. 

Eagles lead the  all-time series 22-9 overall and have won 10 straight in the series and get the nod again in a key conference game. 

Play on Winthrop to cover 

analysis to follow-thank you for your patience

Ohio to cover 

 Kansas State has won nine consecutive Big 12 games,  is at the top of the conference standings and are ranked in the top 20. but because of those lofty numbers and stats opponents see a big target on their backs and are coming at Kansas State with a lot of motivation. Kansas, Baylor and Texas came at the Wildcats with some huge intensity levels in each of the last three tilts. The Wildcats trailed at halftime in all three of those games and had to exert a tremendous amount   of energy to come back, and now Im betting all that tenacious work could easily go against them here, vs a Iowa State team that also has endless amounts of energy.The Cyclones are two games behind Kansas State in the standings and need a victory in this game in order to stay in the Big 12 race so they won't be easy outs here. 

 Iowa State to cover 

Richard Pitino's Minnesota  is ranked  13th in the Big Ten in conference  in points per possession allowed, at more than 1.08. The Gophers don't force turnovers, they don't defend FG shooting well and their weak around the rim.  Minnesota has lost its last four games and are down trending in my power rankings making desperate Indiana a pick here for today getting points. 

INNESOTA is 7-23 ATS  versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons .

CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 42-14 ATS L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover 

THE CITADEL is 10-2 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.W CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS  in home games after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.HC Baucom is 1-8 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game as the coach of THE CITADEL.

THE CITADEL is 11-3 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.W CAROLINA is 11-22 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

CBB Home teams as an underdog or pick (W CAROLINA) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 9-38 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

767 Citadel to cover /win

The Aggies (10-3, 3-8) have rebounded with consecutive victories including 3 straight covers and have  been competitive in recent losses to Ole Miss and Tennessee.  Today in this  Southeastern Conference basketball battle Im betting the Texas A&M  are primed to be competitive here today vs a South Carolina side that my power ranking suggest they matchup well against. Im betting senior post Christian Mekowulu, who has recorded 30 points and 25 rebounds in the last two games to be the key to this game and a Aggies cover.

623 Texas A&M  to cover 

 Auburn goes into Nashville today play Vanderbilt early start Saturday tipoff at Memorial Gymnasium . Bruce Pearl’s squad off a tough loss vs Ole Miss last time  could easily find themselves in a letdown spot vs a 0-12 conference  team that they maybe overlooking  . But  hold your horses , as Bryce Drew’s bottom feeders wont just lay over and die, like some think they will as they are  27-9 SU , including 9-1 SUATS the last ten meetings in this series and must not be underestimated as home dogs . Note:AUBURN is 0-6 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Vanderbilt to cover 

Oklahoma (15-10, 3-9 Big 12) travels to Fort Worth for a Saturday morning showdown with TCU (17-7, 5-6 Big 12). In the recent past these two teams have battled in closely contested affairs. The last three meetings between OU and TCU have been decided by a combined six points with the Sooners escaping with victories in all three  and Im betting on a repeat performance here today in this high noon showdown. 

OU has recorded a 22-4 all-time record vs TCU and has won 14 of the last 17 meetings. OU leads the series 11-3 since the Frogs joined the Big 12 in 2012.Oklahoma is also 9-2 when taking on the Horned  Frogs on the road in Fort Worth.

OKLAHOMA is 12-3 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.OKLAHOMA is 16-6 ATS  in all games this season. 

CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (OKLAHOMA) - off 3 straight losses against conference rivals, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 69-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on on Oklahoma to cover 

The second place Wright State  hosts the first place Northern Kentucky Norse to the WSU Nutter Center Friday night.The Raiders, are currently riding a three-game winning streak and have won seven of the last eight. The Raiders are 11-2 overall and 5-1 in league games at home and haven't lost at the Nutter Center since the overtime slip to UIC on Dec. 28. The visiting the Norse won the first meetings between these rivals by a  68-64  count at NKU on Jan. 11. In that game  and will be primed for revenge. The Raiders won both meetings last year, 69-67 at home, and 84-81 at Northern.

WRIGHT ST is 11-0 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Nagy is 25-8 ATS in home games in February games in all games he has coached since 1997.

CBB underdog (N KENTUCKY) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against an poor defensive team (45-47.5)  are 37-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Wright State to cover 

 Marist has four of the MAAC's top 12 in three-point %: Isaiah Lamb (5th, .421); David Knudsen (7th, .413); Ryan Funk (11th, .390); and Aleksandar Dozic (12th, .385 and can hang with Quinnipac MAAC leading 3 point totals (10.3 per game)

CBB  A favorite (QUINNIPIAC) - off an upset win as an underdog, on Friday nights are 46-80 ATS  L/5 seasons for go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. 

Marist to cover 

 Brown is a team that must be respected when they have revenge on board behind 5-returning-starters in their lineup.Brown ranks second in the Ivy League in scoring offense (75.1 ppg), scoring defense (68.9 ppg) and field goal defense (.414), while leading the league in 3-point FG defense (.301).Last season this group took a couple  of losses vs Cornell and will now be out get some payback, Meanwhile, the Big Red, are  3-9 SU this season vs winning teams like Brown of late and in the past have been a bankroll draining  8-23 ATS in this series .

Play on Brown to cover 

After winning a pair of road games last weekend at Rider and Saint Peter's, the GoldenGriffins return home this weekend for a pair of MAAC games on well rested legs. The Griffs beat Fairfield 73-68 earlier this season, and matchup well against them and have the edge here at home in the rematch.  

FAIRFIELD is 1-8 ATS  versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game this season.

CBB Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (FAIRFIELD) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45-47.5%), after a game where a team made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse are 4-58 SU L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11 ppg. 

Play on Canisius to cover 

 San Diego is a solid team with 4 returning starters back from last season, and have shown flashes of brilliance this season. With revenge on board for a being knocked out of their conference tourney vs BYU last season they will come here primed to give back some  payback. 

The  Cougars are a god awful 2-8 ATS in  away games from Provo this season. BYU is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.BYU is 1-11 ATS   in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons.

San Diego to cover 

Portland State has revenge on board for a 82-75 loss back in January to Northern Arizona . In the past PORTLAND ST is 7-1 UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent this season with a combined average score of with a combined average of 145.5 ppg. PORTLAND ST is 11-2 UNDER  in a home game where the total is 150 to 154.5. 

Under is 5-1 in Lumberjacks last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 Thursday games.Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 vs. Big Sky.Under is 19-7 in Vikings last 26 overall.Under is 8-3 in Vikings last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 9-4 in Vikings last 13 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Portland St..Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Play UNDER 

The Pelicans looked horrendous in a ugly effort vs Oralndo last time out, as the team as a whole stunk out the place as they showed their displeasure in having tp play alongside  super star Anthony Davis , a ego that isn't  really interested in being a part of this group.   Davis himeslef had the second-lowest point total of his seven-year career in games in which he has played 20 or more minutes. He had two points in 20 minutes against Toronto as a rookie.Davis had just three points on 1-of-9 shooting and in 24 minutes of the Pelicans nasty 118-88 home loss to Orlando on Tuesday. However, now after being embarrassed I expect Davis will come out here like his hairs on fire and in effort to keep pace with Westbook and company tonight, and for his teammates at least temporarily come to life behind him in an effort to take down a red hot Oklahoma City team. The Pelicans have covered 4 of the L/6 meetings in this series and my choice getting points tonight.

It must be noted that the Pelicans are 12-0 ATS L/12 off a loss in a home game. 

Donovan is 8-21 ATS in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.

NBA Home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 54-22 ATS L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, second half of the season are 45-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New Orleans to cover 

The Hornets have beaten the Magic 13 times in a row, including six straight at Orlando and Im betting if they lose tonight they won't go down without a fight and actually matchup well vs a Orlando team that despite of playing well at the moment are far from consistent. It must also be noted that the Magic: 1-16 L17 as division home favs and just don't inspire me.The Magic  in their two meetings this season vs Charlotte were horrendous from down beyond the arc going a combined 16-for-66 (24.2 percent) and Im betting their inability to pop and  stop from downtown vs this Hornets group will be their downfall again. Note: ORLANDO is 7-17 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

The Magic are 0-10 ATS/1-9 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a road game in which they had assists on at least 70 percent of their field goals with the only SU win coming by 2 points.  The Magic are 0-11 ATS/SU at home with rest off a win facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game. 

Play on Charlotte to cover 

After winning three straight and four of the last five games with a pair of upsets over Top 25 teams Illinois is gaining respect, but the Illini still don't have a true road victory and are  0-6 in visitors role this season. With that said, Im betting Illinois road troubles will continue vs a Ohio State team up trending and  on a 3 game win streak, The Buckeyes took the first game in this series this season by 10 points on the road, and are capable of turning the trick again as -8 chalk as hosts. 

ILLINOIS is 8-18 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making 45% or better of their shots over the last 3 seasons with the point diff clicking in at -10.2 ppg.

ILLINOIS is 2-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with the average point differential -10.8 ppg. 

CBB underdog vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 5 points or less against opponent off a close road win by 3 points or less are 0-44 SU L/22 seasons with the average margin loss differential clicking in at -12.2 ppg.

Play on Ohio State to cover 

A Valentine's Day showdown between the College of Charleston (20-6, 9-4 CAA) and Hofstra (21-4, 11-1) will showcase the Colonial Athletic Association's schedule today.Charleston has rattled off six-straight victories since its mid-January 0-2 road trip to Northeastern and Hofstra and are playing their very best hoops at home as is evident by a 11-1 mark here, as compared to Hofstras 7-4 road record. CofC is 4-2 lifetime when playing at home in the series and get the nod again. 

Play on College of Charleston to cover 

Colorado has big time revenge on board tonight for a ugly 83-61 loss at Tempe  last month and will be very motivated to get some payback vs an Arizona State side off an emotional win vs Washington last time out and could easily be in letdown spot. With that said, Im betting a energized group of Buffaloes now playing their best hoops of the season will avenge that previous loss and extend their current 3 game win streak.CU is 7-1 all-time against the Sun Devils in Boulder, including four straight wins.

ARIZONA ST is 5-17 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.Hurley is 11-21 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of ARIZONA ST.

ARIZONA ST is 4-13 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.COLORADO is 6-0 ATS  in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.COLORADO is 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.Boyle is 18-4 ATS  in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 as the coach of COLORADO.

Play on Colorado to cover 

Denver plays its best basketball at home  and are 24-4 SU &  20-8 ATS as hosts  this season coming into this tilt vs Sacramento. Meanwhile, the Kings while looking very competitive this season do not match up well on the road vs teams that can run and gun with them like Denver can as is evident by the following trend.SACRAMENTO is 1-8 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with the average point differential -14.3 ppg. Also DENVER is 18-8 ATS  in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season with the average differential of +12.1 ppg. 

DENVER is 15-2 ATS  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season (Denver beat Miami 103-87 here in the MileHigh City last time out)

The Kings are 0-15 ATS /0-15 SU on the road off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game.The Nuggets are 13-0 ATS/ SU as a home favorite off a win after a game with 8+ lead changes and it is before the All-Star break. 

Play on Denver Nuggets to cover 

 Miami has been struggling of late , but must not be underestimated in their ability to cover or pull off an upset here vs a Dallas team that is highly inconsistent despite of of the accolades it gets from the media for having a rising star in their lineup , Luka Doncic. With this being both teams last game before the all star break I expect a spirited affair that will see getting points to be a golden proposition. 

MIAMI is 21-9 ATS  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons.MIAMI is 31-17 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 16-4 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 31-19 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 19-7 ATS  against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons and 17-7 ATS on the road in non conference games. Spoelstra is 23-8 ATS in road games after playing 4 consecutive road games as the coach of MIAMI.The Heat are 9-0 ATS  on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 45-19 ATS for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

Miami enters this game ranked 3rd in ppg allowed in the NBA behind the 24th ranked pace and 27th ranked offense. Needless to say the Heat play a methodical brand of hoops that has resulted in some lower scoring affairs. Here on the road in their 5th straight road game, Im betting the pesky Heat  gear down once again in turn this into a war in the trenches vs their hosts the Mavericks  which will result in a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers might expect.  Note: DALLAS is 23-11 UNDER  in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score of 201.7 ppg being scored.

The Heat are 0-23-2 UNDER as a dog with rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with the average combined score of 189.2 ppg scored.

The Mavericks are 0-18 UNDER when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with the average combined score of 182.2 ppg going on the board.

NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) - teams with a offensive  output (102  or more PPG) against a  team  that allows(102 or more PPG), after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 34-11 L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Chicago Bulls will be motivated to avoid a winless home stand vs a side that they matchup well against when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night.The Grizzlies will be playing on short rest after losing 108-107 to the visiting San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night and now exhausted and in a letdown spot are susceptible to a down effort vs a Chicago side that went 2-0 against the Grizzlies last season, with both wins coming by single digits. The lines-makers once again expect a close game, but my own projections estimate that the Bulls should be 3 point chalk here at home, which give credence to me backing the Bulls in this spot play. Note: Mike Conley's status for this game is questionable as he suffers with a undisclosed illness. 

MEMPHIS is 4-13 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

 The Bulls are 18-0 ATS /16-2 SU when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss as a dog when they won 2 straight vs current opponent and it is before the All-Star break.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 105-26 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover 

 After a fast start to their current campaign that saw them go 13-1 SU NC State with the easiest non conference schedule in the nation has cooled off quite a bit. ,  losing 6 of their L/9 while covering just twice during that time. Considering the series host is just 2-7-1 ATS  I wont be surprised when Boheim and company cover and or pull off the SU upset vs a side that has become very inconsistent. Note:  North Carolina State won the first meeting between the teams under new head coach Kevin Keatts, winning 74-70 in the Carrier Dome last year, and now the visitors will have the extra motivation of looking for payback here.

Matchup analysis: North Carolina State full-court defense and transition offense Im betting will have some issues  when they push the tempo vs Syracuse methodical 2-3 zone. The Wolfpack can fight for rebounds in the offensive zone, but   they are one of ACC’s  worst defensive rebounding teams and that's where Im betting they will get in trouble.

Play on Syracuse to cover  

St. Louis was blown out last time out vs St.Jospehs 91-61 and now Im betting they get back to playing a more solid brand of defence here this Wednesday night vs a George Washington side that averages 64.2 ppg in offence this season. 

SAINT LOUIS is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 114.4 ppg.

SAINT LOUIS is 8-1 UNDER  versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots over the last 3 seasons .  

784 George Washington /St. Louis UNDER

Despite  of an explosive offensive lineup, coach Brett Brown's attention is now on defense and preparing for the playoffs. QUOTE: "All I think about is, 'How do you have a defense that can play in the playoffs?'" he said."Right now, the pace of the game made the game a little bit difficult. I think our defense right now is a B- or C+. We're OK. We turn it up; we turn it down. It needs to be better than it is. It's certainly going to have to be better against the Celtics. But the notion of what's the end game, it's always about the playoffs." END QUOTE: Meanwhile, Boston will come in here without Kyrie Irving, which will curtail their offensive abilities, and will make them more focused on playing top tier basketball in an effort to slow their ferocious opponent. Considering the circumstances, and both teams situations, Im expecting a play off type game here that is alot more physical than many might expect and as a result a much lower scoring game than the linesmakers might also expect. 

BOSTON is 10-0 UNDER in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 206.9 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in home games after a combined score of 245 points or more with a combined average score of 198.3 ppg . ( They beat the Lakers 143-120 last time out, setting off Brown on his defensive speech above)

Play UNDER 

Orlando is playing decently and have won their first two games of their current 3 game road trip and 3 in a row, but are still a team that is far from being considered a upper tier team, and not a group that have proven long term consistent upward trajectory status. Meanwhile, their hosts tonight the Pelicans, are off a loss last time out, to the Grizzlies, in a ugly game (99-90), on the 10th of Feb, but should now be well rested and ready to rebound, as they become acclimated to having super star Anthony Davis back in the lineup.

Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.

The Magic are 0-16 ATS/SU  with rest off a win when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game.

Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Magic are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference.

NBA Road underdogs (ORLANDO) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 19-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

Up-trending St. Bonaventure travels to Philadelphia looking for a sweep of this year's series with Saint Joseph's Tuesday night.St. Bonaventure has won its last three Atlantic 10 road games, winning at UMass, Richmond and Duquesne.St. Bonaventure dominated St.Josephs in the first game and  led from start to finish  by a final score of 73, 47. Now St.Josephs is being made home favs here. While they might want revenge, St.Josephs looks like they don't matchup well vs this current group of Bonnies and in my opinion false favorites. The Bonnies have won the last nine of the last 10 meetings and get the nod again.

 .ST BONAVENTURE is 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons

CBB underdog (ST BONAVENTURE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse are 62-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on St.Bonaventure to cover 

Purdue  currently on a 8 game win streak held Maryland to 28.6 percent shooting in second half of 62-60 win on Dec. 6. That matchup showed me how well the Boilermakers matchup against Maryland and gives me credence backing them to win and cover here tonight on the road in the rematch . Also since that victory All of the data shows 12th-ranked Purdue is a different team than when its Dec. 6 win over Maryland and could be even more ferocious this time around. Purdue  has won the last 5 meetings in this series.

Note: Maryland has not scored more than 70 points in over a month which is not a good omen vs a  Purdue side that  is ranked fourth nationally in offensive efficiency.

Maryland is ranked last in the Big 10 in turnover diff. 

Purdue has won three straight Big Ten road games by a combined 25 points.

PURDUE is 11-3 ATS  vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 3 seasons.( Maryland is ranked No.1 in Big 10 rebounding margin at 8.9 pg)

Play on Purdue to cover 

Both these teams are struggling but according to my power rankings and system vs system data, the visitors are actually the superior team on a short line. My personal line for this game makes the wrong team the favorite in this spot play.

Play on Arkansas Pine Bluff to cover 

 Milwaukee's star player Giannis Antetokounmpo is suffering with some knee pain, and despite of  being expected to play tonight is less than 100%. The last time out the Bucks struggled in a home loss to the Orlando Magic and blamed it on tired legs. Well Im sure that was true, but another truth is that the Bucks have come at opponents relentlessly this season and are not pacing themselves and I wont be surprised if that comes back to haunt them again tonight. 

Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Bulls are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - an excellent offensive team (102 or more  PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after scoring 90 points or less are just 7-26 L/5seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

The Mavs  are exhausted after a tenacious come from behind win vs Portland last night  which is not a good omen vs a Houston side hell bent on revenge for a earlier loss to the Mavericks this season. It must be noted that the Mavericks have lost 10 straight games when playing without rest against same-season avenging side and are just 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS as a road dog without rest after facing the Blazers. With that said, a combination and exhaustion and revenge will be the key  us getting the cover here laying DDs. 

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 

 With Kevin Love back from injury and Brandon Knight now in the Cleveland lineup theirs alot more offensive firepower on the floor for the Cavs and Im betting that will show here tonight against the Knicks on the scoreboard. The Knicks also have a little more fire power with DeAndre Jordan now here after being traded and the top tier play of the young Mitchell who is averaging 13 ppg via  76.2 % shooting conversion rate in just 20.3 minutes over his last three games. With the Knicks desperate to end a 16 game losing streak, Im betting they come out here spitting bullets, and Im betting Cleveland reciprocates with some offensive fire works of their own in a  game I have pegged to eclipse this number which isn't reflective of the current rosters. 

Fizdale is 23-9 OVER in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored. Over is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a home loss, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a losing record are 48-16 OVER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the OVER 

Roy Williams North Carolina's  owns an explosive offence that can hang with Virginias offence and also give hem issues defensively, much like Duke proved last Saturday when they took out Cavs in front of their own fans. Here on the road, vs the Tar Heels, an emotionally spent  Cavaliers will once again find themselves in trouble in a very unfriendly atmosphere. Add to that   the Tar Heels have revenge on board for a 71-63 loss to Virginia in the 2018 ACC Championship game and  Im betting you have a recipe for the Cavs suffering their second consecutive loss. 

Home team is 10--1 ATS L/11 meetings in this series.

N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons and is 10-1 ATS  in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. 

NC is  18-1 SU as a host i in this series when they own a win percentage of .666 or greater.

N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS  in home games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons. 

Play North Carolina to cover 

Im betting on Miami hanging tough here vs this explosive Golden State team, based on my power ranking projections. There is value on this underdog line and we must always follow long term edges, win or lose. Look for  Hassan WhiteSide who has recorded a double-double in each of the last four games and is shooting 67.3 percent from the floor in these tilts to be a key factor here tonight in making this alot more physical than the Warriors would like.

 MIAMI is 32-17 ATS  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 16-5 ATS  in road games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 8-0 ATS   after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. HC Spoelstra is 41-25 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game as the coach of MIAMI. 

The Heat are 14-1-1 ATS L/16 as a dog with less than two days rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.The Warriors are 1-13-1 ATS  at home off a win as a favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.The Warriors are 0-9-1 ATSL/10 as a home 8+ favorite with rest off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5. 

Play on Miami to cover 

Stanford  currently on a three game win streak earned a 35-point win (96-61) at Maples Pavilion in the lone meeting last season and you can bet Altman and company have had this game circled on their calendars for a while and will be prepared to return the favour in front of their own fans . Im betting Oregon winners of 3 of their L/4 overall get their revenge and cover according to my own projections that suggest the Ducks are being under valued as favs.  My line is  -8 points favouring Oregon on their own home floor. 

Under coach Dana Altman, Oregon has a 52-21 record (.712) during the second half of Pac-12 play.

STANFORD is 0-6 ATS  off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.OREGON is 10-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Oregon to cover 

These teams both played last night and this will be the Hawks 4th game in 5 nights, and the Magics 4th game in 6 nights. Needless to say both sides should show some factors of fatigue here this evening, and will not be ready to run and gun. This Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect. 

ATLANTA is 19-6 UNDER L/25 revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite with the combined average score of 205 ppg scored. ( Orlando beat Atlanta on Jan 21 this season)

The Hawks are 0-16 UNDER L/16 with no rest off a loss as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game with a combined average of 192.1 ppg scored.The Magic are 0-11-1 L/12 UNDER L/12 as a favorite off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws and it is before the All-Star break with a. combined average of 198.1 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Northwestern enters this game  having limited opponents to shooting just 29.1 percent from beyond the arc this season, the best mark in the conference and 12th best nationally. Iowa their Big 10 hosts tonight have made 37.3%  of their three-point attempts and has attempted the fourth-most threes in the conference. This Im betting will be key to Northwestern staying close vs Hawkeyes' big town town game.

My own projections estimate that Northwestern will score 67+ points or more, whihc sets up well for us covering, as NORTHWESTERN is 9-1 ATS in road games when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.

CBB underdog (NORTHWESTERN) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse are 61-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Northwestern to cover 

 The Lakers looked good in a win vs the Boston Celtics 3 days ago as underdogs, and now with some momentum on their sides, Im betting Philadelphia will have to play hard to take the Lakers out here , especially if  key player Joel Embiid does not play because of illness. Thus getting points here with the Lakers is a viable opportunity to cash a ticket. Add to that the Lakers have revenge on board for a loss they suffered in LA 121-105, and we have a nice revenge situation to bet into.

 The Lakers are 12-0 ATS L/12 off a game as a dog in which their opponent made at least 10 more free throws and are are 11-0 ATS on the road with rest off a win as a road dog after scoring 15+ points more than Vegas projected. 

The Seventysixers are 1-14 ATS L/15 with less than two days rest off a home game in which they had more than 10 refereed turnovers.

LA LAKERS are 8-1 ATS  in road games after allowing 120 points or more this season

LA LAKERS are 15-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. PHILADELPHIA is 11-20 ATS  versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 free or less throws/game this season.PHILADELPHIA is 2-11 ATS  after playing 2 consecutive home games this season.

Underdogs (LA LAKERS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 153-95 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Lakers to cover 

 The UMBC   (14-10, 6-3 America East) looks for its third consecutive road win in America East when they  go against the inconsistent Maine Black Bears (5-19, 3-6) this Sunday. UMBC had a 5 game losing streak come to end last time out, but will be very ready to rebound here today, behind a solid D, that leads the league in scoring defense at 63.3 points per game.UMBC has won nine consecutive games in the series and are 5-0 at Maine since the 2014 season and get the nod again.

Maryland Baltimore to cover 

I know the Sun Devils  might not look like a viable choice for public bettors to beat a team on 12 game win streak. But it must be noted that Arizona State is one of the few teams  that can handle a  2-3 zone defense like Washington owns. Also the Huskies after a hard fought win vs Arizona last time out on the road will now have a hard time rising to the occasion again, and may actually be emotionally drained against a reved up team ready to play hard and garner an upset. ASU tenacious ball snatching work will go a long way to them getting us the win here. The Sun Devils are  the Pac-12 leader in rebounding margin (+6.6), has outrebounded 18 of 22 opponents this year.

ARIZONA ST is 7-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or more ) over the last 2 seasons and is 6-0 ATS   versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Arizona State to cover 

These two teams are evenly matched according to my power rankings but , home court advantage favours Houston to pull this one out vs the Thunder making it 7 wins in their L/8 tries at home in this series. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-17 ATS  in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Thunder are 1-10 ATS/SU with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in a home game when the line is at least 10 points higher than their last game.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive road wins, on Saturday games are 25-3 L/22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 120 points or more are 14-31 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover 

 The Bulls carry the momentum  of their impressive effort vs Brooklyn last night notching a 125-106 win. Newly acquired  Porter shot 7-for-9 overall and 4-for-5 on 3-pointers, helping the Bulls convert 50.0 percent of their 28 attempts from three point land. Porter got the start alongside Lauri Markkanen in both looked to mesh well together as does Guard Zach LaVine. This group looks to have chemistry and must be respected here as dogs tonight vs a poor travelling Washington team that have lost 21 of 28 road games. The Bulls won 101-92 at Washington in December in the clubs' only previous meeting this season. The win was the Chicago's second straight over Washington and a third straight win is not out of the question tonight. 

Washington also won last night in a 119-106 victory vs Cleveland, but are just 1-12 ATS  in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season and is 0-12 ATS (in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games this season. WASHINGTON is 6-21 ATS  in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.

CHICAGO is 20-9 ATS  against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. 

The Bulls are 20-3 ATS L/23 when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a dog when they won 2 straight vs current opponent and it is before the All-Star break.The Wizards are 4-23 ATS/SU on the road facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - poor foul drawing team - attempting 24 . or less  free throws/game, poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 46% . or better  on the season are 84-129  over the last 5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Bulls to cover 

There was a vibe around the Pelicans last night against the Minnesota Wolves that was not a positive one despite of team winning. It seems to me , that this group isn't thrilled about having super star Anthony Davis back in the lineup. Yes, they pulled off the victory but , it seemed like their was a real awkward adjustment having the self centered star back in the lineup , knowing that he doesnt want to be there, making them fade material tonight vs a much hungrier Grizzlies team  with a more positive vibe after some players were traded  .Coach Alvin Gentry didn't play Davis in the final 15-plus minutes even though Minnesota made it a one-possession game several times while Davis sat. 

The Grizzlies are 13-1 ATS/SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a road game after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses and it is before the All-Star break.The Pelicans are 0-8 ATS/SU on the road with no rest when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home.

NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, on Saturday games are 35-80 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 39-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Memphis to cover 

 Two Southeast division rivals to battle tonight in Atalanta. The Hawks are a team that I have as moving upward in my rankings on a consistent basis. Their youth both hinders them and aids them, and must be respected here vs a inconsistent Charlotte team getting points.Atlanta had its two-game winning streak broken on Thursday night by the Toronto Raptors in a 119-101 home loss, but for the first part of that game the Hawks looked like upset possibilities before Toronto put the hammer down.ATLANTA is 19-8 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Note: Charlotte will be without veteran Tony Parker, who left the Tuesday game against the Los Angeles Clippers with a back injury.

The Hawks are 18-3-1 ATS as a home dog with rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game.The Hawks are 12-0 ATS/11-1 SU as a home dog with rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game and it is before the All-Star break.

The Hornets are 0-12 ATS L/12 with more than one day of rest off a loss after allowing 50-plus points in the paint.The Hornets are 2-17 ATS /3-16 SU with rest after they shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts and it is before the All-Star break.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The top two teams in the Southland Conference will toe   when the first-place Sam Houston State Bearkats travel to second-place Abilene Christian at Moody Coliseum. This promises to be a barn burner but Sam Houston according to my power rankings is the superior teams and viable bet getting points.Sam Houston is currently one of just 10 teams  in the country with an unbeaten record within  conference play. The Kats 11-game win streak is tied with defending national champion Villanova and Pac 12 leader Washington for the third-longest current win streak in the nation, only trailing No. 1 Tennessee (16 games) and No. 4 Gonzaga (12 games).

Take the points wit Sam Houston to cover 

Almost a month ago both these teams took part in a ferocious battle and now Duke and Virginia are back at it in another Top 5 matchup Saturday.Both teams are tied with North Carolina atop the ACC standings at 8-1 in conference play so this is a key game for them . Virginia is depending way to much  on their 3-point shooting ,  and Duke is the kind of team that can make them take bad threes as was evident when , the Cavaliers went  just 3-for-17 (17.6 percent) from deep in the previous meeting.Duke because of their size and strength don't need to pound threes and make a majority of their scores from in close . Virginia Im betting is susceptible to being manhandled in in the paint here tonight and with  Tre Jones back from injury the   Blue Devils look hard to handle. I know Virginia is on a 27-1 run at home, but I won't be surprised if a 2 is added into the loss column after this final buzzer goes off today.

VIRGINIA is 0-9 ATS L/9 in home games after having won 18 or more of their last 20 games. 

Play on Duke to cover 

  Defense is the name of the game for Utah and tonight against a run and gun type team like the Spurs Im betting the put the hammer down  and play some conservative lockdown D. Over the last 15 games, the Jazz have recorded a solid 105.5 defensive rating -- ranking second among NBA teams. San Antonio beat Utah 110-97 earlier this Eason but UTAH is 27-15 UNDER  revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.3 ppg scored.

UTAH is 11-2 UNDER  in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 195.7 pig scored. The Jazz are 0-12 UNDER as a home favorite with more than one day of rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with a combined average of 189.6 ppg scored with none of the combined scores coming even close to this point plateau. The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 as a favorite with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score of 192.9 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent free throw shooting team - making 80% or more of their free throws, second half of the season are 47-23 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNDER 

The Gators pushed Vols Jan. 12 in Gainesville before falling 78-67 and actually matchup well vs this top ranked team form a empirical   power ranking viewpoint.... based on system vs system analysis.

Tennessee has allowed SEC opponents to make at least 10 3-pointers in five of nine league games this season so far. It must be noted that Florida made 12 in the teams’ first meetings, tying Texas A&M for the most 3s the Vols have surrendered to an opponent all season and it will be the Gators 3 point shooting Im betting that will keep them close in this affair and get us the all important cover. 

CBB road team (FLORIDA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 352-240 L/22 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Florida to cover 

South Carolina got hammered by Kentucky last time out and now have to taken a red hot Arkansas side on a 4 game win streak. However, despite of  how downtrodden the Gamecocks might seem, they still have beat Mississippi State, Florida and Auburn, with the conference losses coming to Kentucky , LSU, and Tennessee. Now in desperation mode I expect the home team to play big here this afternoon and notch a win vs a side that is surprising me and over rated according to my matchup projections and systems. Note: In SEC home contests this season, Carolina is averaging 80.5 points per game, 44.2 percent from the field and 70.9 percent from the free throw line.

ARKANSAS is 9-22 ATS L/31 in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread. ARKANSAS is 1-8 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons which was a the case in a 69-66 win vs Vanderbilt last time out. 

Play on South Carolina to cover 

Cleveland State, has struggled with injuries and illness, but  will  be primed to seek a measure of revenge against Milwaukee after the Panthers rallied to win the first game of the season between the two teams 83-76 in Milwaukee on Jan. 3. The Phoenix are on a 4 games losing streak, and very much look like a desperate home team can handle, especially behind the incentive of revenge on their sides.

CLEVELAND ST is 7-0 ATS  after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Cleveland State to cover 

 UK enters this SEC fray vs Mississippi State on a 9-0 SU run and in their last game trounced  South Carolina by DDs. The Cats also beat todays hosts the Bulldogs 76-55   at Lexington during that above mentioned win streak and will now have to face a team with revenge on board , as they themselves have a big target on their backs at the moment, because of their torrid top tier play .Note:MSU as a home dog  with same-season loss revenge, are 6-0-1 ATS  L/7 when the loss was by 14 or more points . Miss State HC Howland is no pushover , and will have  his troops ready to stand tall and extend on a   11-1 ATS as home underdog in his career here and are  3-0-1 ATS as a home dog in this series.

This is a huge game for Mississippi State as they are slumping after a hot start, but  are now 4-4 in SEC games and are in desperate need of a big win to keep their NCAA Tournament dreams alive. 

Mississippi State to cover 

Anthony Davis is expected to play tonight for the Pelicans after it was learned that he would not be traded and might not be as injured as he thought. With Jeff Teague expected to miss or be at less than 100% if he does play  the Wolves now on tired  legs after playing last night definitely look to be at a disadvantage. Note: The Timberwolves are 1-23 ATS /0-24 SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 6 refereed turnovers per game. The Pelicans are 10-0 ATS/SU as a favorite off a win in a road game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with the average margin of victory coming 16.4 ppg. 

NBA Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 18-47  ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

This is the final meeting between Minnesota and New Orleans this season. The home team has won each of the previous three meetings and Im betting the home team holds serve again. 

Play on New Orleans to cover 

The Bucks are an explosive team , and look like viable threats to Golden States supremacy. But teams like Dallas must not be underestimated when playing at home in front of their own fans. HC Carlisle is top tier coach, and has instilled a never say die attitude into his now talent laden playing personnel.  Overall the Mavs have played teams like the Bucks well, as is evident by DALLAS going  7-0 ATS  versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.DALLAS is also 22-10 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with the average point diff clicking in at minuscule 0.2 ppg. Carlisle in 265 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of DALLAS has seen the average point diff click in at 4.2 ppg.

The Mavericks are 14-0-2 ATS at home after a game with 8+ lead changes which was the case in a 99-93 win vs Charlotte last time out. 

Bucks are 1-9-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.Bucks are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Dallas has covered 8 straight games overall, and Im betting on another cover here as they add to a 9-1 ATS record  as a home underdog this season. 

Play on Dallas to cover

Washington as this big a favorite against anyone in the NBA just does not sit well with me, even though they are on their own home court vs a struggling lower tier team. The Wizards are just 3-9 ATS L/12 vs a sub .500 team, and have failed to cover 8 of their L/11 vs the NBA Central. Meanwhile, the Cavs are starting to show some upward trajectory from a betting perspective and have covered 4 straight vs NBA eastern foes, and are 5-2 ATS L/7 vs Southeast division opposition. The Cavs are also 4-1 ATS L/5 in their series and the underdog has covered 7 of the L/8 meetings and once again the away pup looks like a viable option a DD line that Im betting is bloated. 

The Cavaliers are 10-1 ATS L/11 as a road dog with more than one day of rest when they won 2 straight vs current opponent. The Wizards are 0-12 ATS/1-11 SU with rest off a 10+ loss in a road game and it is before the All-Star break with the one win coming by 3 points.

NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - poor foul drawing team - attempting 24 or less free throws/game, terrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of 48%  or better on the season are a long term profitable bet, going 58-37 ATS L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Oh boy the Knicks a storied NBA franchise is completely in a disarray and now embarking on a rebuild, but with some stable bodies and minds guiding the way as guards Dennis Smith Jr. and Wesley Matthews as well as center DeAndre Jordan are inserted into the starting lineup. The Knicks current 14 game losing streak tells a story of a team that had no chemistry and very little will to win. However, thanks to these trades and overall house cleaning, the Knicks Im betting will show some fight here in the 2nd of back to back games vs the Detroit Pistons. ( Motown won the first game in this b2b) 

Knicks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Road team is 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series.DETROIT is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasonsThe Pistons are 0-15 ATS L/15  as a favorite off a 10+ win in which they had at least a 10 percent higher BAP than their opponent and it is before the All-Star break.The Pistons are 0-11 ATS L/11 at home with more than one day of rest off a 10+ win as a favorite in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Washington usually runs and guns with reckless abandon and tonight against a more conservative Cleveland team nothing will change, thus automatically pushing the Cavalier to up their pace and to run with the Wizards in a gem I have pegged to eclipse this beatable number. 

The Wizards are 16-0 OVER L/16 with less than two days rest off a road game in which they shot over 50% from the field which happened in a loss vs the Milwaukee last time out. The average combined score of those 16 tilts clicks in at 231.2 ppg. 

WASHINGTON is 14-5 OVER  in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 239 ppg scored.

Brooks is 16-5 OVER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average score of 231 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after a game where they covered the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 95-44 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

 NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, on Friday nights are 36-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Yale hosts first-place Princeton on Friday in a game I have projected as staying under this offered total. 

Yale ranks high in the nation in field goal percentage defense (35th, 40.4 percent). Meanwhile, Princetons key to success this season, has been by playing physical  defence and conservative type of transition basketball, that has resulted in most ly low scoring offensive outputs by themselves and their opponents. Princeton has really stepped up their defensive play of late , as is evident by allowing an average of 58.3 ppg in their L/6 games with all of them staying under the total. Today against a viable offensive threat in theBulldogs, Im expecting the visitors to be even more vigilant and will make a concerted effort to turn this into a mud wrestling affair in the trenches. This Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines-makers might expect. 

PRINCETON is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season .

YALE is 9-2 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons.

PRINCETON is 11-2 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Yale/ Princeton UNDER 

The lines makers have made the Toreros short road favs here, and those assessments are correct according to my power rankings. San Diego beat Loyola Marymount 71-58 at home earlier this season in conference play, and matchup well vs the Lions. I know the Lions have been potent at home this season, as their 10-1 record as hosts would indicate, but San Diego has won the last two meetings here at the Gersten Pavilion and are a viable side. It must be noted that San Diego are a well conditioned team  that gets stronger as games progress. The Toreros  have outscored opponents 932-824 during the second half this season, while shooting 51 percent from the field and 41 percent from 3-point range.  
 In the final five minutes of games, USD is shooting a powerful 51 percent from the field and 37 percent from 3-point range, while their D is holding opponents to 45 percent from the field and 30 percent from 3-point range. These are important data and stats  trends points when considering this  is essentially a pickem game and expected to be closely contested. 

SAN DIEGO is 18-7 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons and is 24-11 ATS  in road games over the last 3 seasons.

Play on San Diego to cover 

Portland State comes off a narrow loss at Idaho State on Saturday, 69-67. The Vikings had won three straight prior to that, including a win at Weber State last Thursday as they continue to play solid competitive basketball, making them viable road underdogs here in this spot vs Northern Colorado. I know NCU has done well of late and the lines makers respect them, but now their getting a little bit to much respect vs a hardworking opponent . 

N COLORADO is 4-17 ATS L/21 after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite .

Play on Portland State to cover  

The Wildcats are in desperation mode after having list 4 of their L/5 overall. Biut tonight according to my power rankings have system they matchup well against and have an edge at where they have won four straight home games against Washington and nine of the past 10 hosting the Huskies.

The Wildcats are 95-5 at home in their last 100 home games, which dates back to the 2012-13 season. Arizona's 92-5 mark at home since the start of the 2013-14 season is tops nationally. Im betting the Wildcats ability to limit mistakes will be key to taking down the visitors tonight.The Wildcats are averaging 11.3 turnovers per game, which is the fewest of any team in the Pac-12. and overall  has a turnover margin of +3.8, which leads the Pac-12, and is 15th-best in the country.

CBB team (ARIZONA) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 59-19 ATS L5seasons for a 77%conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

GCU (14-7, 7-1 WAC) enters the game against UTRGV (12-12, 4-4 WAC) on its best roll of the season. The Lopes have won five games in a row, posted four consecutive double-digit victories and return to an arena where they have a 16-game regular-season home winning streak.GCU is 7-1 in WAC play because of its defense, ranking first in the conference for points allowed per game (60.9) and opponent field goal percentage (40.8) to easily have the top scoring margin (plus-14.9) after playing each team once.I expect they will once again play lock down defence, which will effect the total score to the down side here this evening in a game that I have projected to stay under the set total. 

Grand Canyon /UT Rio Grande Valley UNDER

The Red Wolves have played four overtime games this season, and despite of a negative record are almost always competitive. There  is sharp money all over Arkansas State and Im not blaming my colleagues one bit for taking the points here in a game that have handicapped at closer to 3 points , thus we are getting the value of a one possession game according to my projections. 

Play on Arkansas State to cover 

The Raptors are off a big win vs the Philadelphia 76ers last time out in a start to finish victory. That impressive outing, also came at a price as this team exerted alot of energy and will now be  emotionally drained, even with a couple days rest, against a young Atlanta team that loves to run and gun.The Hawks  are an up trending team that must not be discounted, having gone 12-12 since Dec. 18. and have won two in a row. Note:The Raptors are 1-13 ATS  L/14  with rest off a road game.The Raptors are 3-17 ATS  with less than two days rest off a win as a road dog in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers which happened vs the Sixers. 

The Hawks are 6-0 ATS /5-1 SU with rest off a win in which their turnovers decreased by at least 10 from the game before. 

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Clippers will be without leading scorer Tobias Harris,  key chemistry cog Boban Marjanovic and their top bench player Mike Scott after all three were traded to the Philadelphia 76ers in a deal that was made official Wednesday. Considering their new lineup, Im betting the Clippers will have their hands full with a Pacers team off a 42 point diff beatdown of the LA Lakers last time out and suddenly on a 3 game win streak, after initially looking downtrodden,  when their leading scorer Victor Oladipo (knee) was lost for the season. Now feeling confident I expect the Pacers with momentum to come out here and lay down another beatdown on a LA team. I also know that the Clippers are supposed to have Gallinari back in the lineup tonight, but after a long lay off he is rusty, and far from being the kind of player that can carry a team on his back. With that said , its Pacers all the way here. 

The Clippers are 1-20-2 ATS on the road with rest off a game as a dog when they lost 4 straight vs current opponent

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team 104-58 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indiana to cover 

Minnesota enters this game banged up with Jeff Teague  downgraded to doubtful Thursday vs Orlando ( Foot ) [PG] 02/05/2019 - Derrick Rose is "?" Thursday vs Orlando ( Ankle ) [PG] 01/16/2019 - Tyus Jones is out indefinitely ( Ankle ) [SF] 01/03/2019 - Robert Covington is out indefinitely ( Ankle ). Needless to say Im projecting that the Wolves will hav problems scoring tonight, and will be out to play a more conservative survival type of game plan.Orlando is 8th in ppg allowed in the league behind the 25th ranked pace 27th ranked offensive output and have the ability to slow the Wolves down, and limit their scoring output , especially with Teague out. Orlando is also  off a run and gun affair last time out vs Oklahoma City (122-132) , on the road and are now on tired legs, as the all star breaks nears and the trade deadline rumours surrounding the team keep them off balance and Im betting directly effects their overall energy levels tonight.

Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 36-17 in Magic last 53 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 36-17 in Magic last 53 games following a straight up loss.

The Magic are 0-17-1 UNDER with rest off a 10+ loss as a road dog in which they had at least 5 turnovers more than their season-to-date average with a combined average of 182.7 ppg scored with no game eclipsing this offered totals number.

Play UNDER 

  Houston Cougars  have been on a tear this season  but tonight against a revenge minded UCF team Im betting they're in trouble.   Last season,  UCF had their proverbial butts kicked by a 84-56, count  in the first round of last year’s AAC tourney  by the Cougars and UCF has had this game circled their calendar for a while now. Add to that   Houston is off a game with Temple  last time out  and are in a natural letdown situation and also are in a precarious  look ahead situation  with Cincinnati on deck.With UCF almost always playing their best hoops at home as is evident by a  36-8 SU record as hosts under HC Dawkins), the Knights look like solid underdogs in this spot. 

UCF is 7-0 ATS  in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or better  of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.

Play on UCF to cover 

When these teams met earlier this season they took part in a very low scoring defensive affair, with a  combined 105 points going on the board.

Behind the rim protection of Samuel Idowu, KC Ndefo, and Derrick Woods, Saint Peter's leads the MAAC in blocked shots, rejecting 4.6 shots per game and play a defence first style of basketball that is slow in transition. Through the first five MAAC games, Saint Peter's did not allow an opponent to score more than 63 points in a game (Siena – 60, Monmouth – 61, Fairfield – 60, Marist – 63, Manhattan – 58) and more of th same action is on board for tonight vs a Monmouth side that averages just 63.3 ppg in offence on the road. DEFENCE, DEFENCE, and more DEFENCE is my call here and a total combined score that fails to eclipse this total.

MONMOUTH is 7-1 UNDER  versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season this season.ST PETERS is 6-0 UNDER  off 3 straight losses against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons with. combined average of115 ppg scored. 

Rice is 13-4 UNDE when the total is 120 to 129.5 as the coach of MONMOUTH with a combined average of 121.4 ppg scored.

St. Peter's /Monmouth UNDER

High Point has won seven of the last eight matchups in this series vs Campbell and get the nod again behind a hard core rebound group that leads  the Big South Conference and is 12th in the nation with a rebounding margin of +7.8 rebounds per game. This tenacious High point squad have held a rebounding edge in 17 of their last 18 contests. There in close and physical inside style of play has seen the Panthers score 60.0 percent of their points from 2-point FG, the second-highest ratio in the nation. Im betting Tubby Smiths gritty take no prisoners style of hoops will put them in a positive situation here on their own home floor vs Campbell. 

Play on High Point to cover 

Houston looks like a viable short favorite here vs a Sacramento Kings team that they matchup well against according to my system vs system analysis charts. Houston has won 3 of their L/4 visits here and gets the nod again.

HOUSTON is 13-4 ATS  in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

The Rockets are 11-0 ATS/SU as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite after a win in which they never trailed which was the case in Phoenix last time out.The Kings are 2-16 ATS/SU when the line is within 3 of pick after they had at least 5 turnovers less than their season-to-date average.

NBA Home underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 11-38  ATS L/22 years for a go against  78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 

Its not very often lay this much lumber with an NBA game, but the truth is Phoenix is just a bad team, and their banged up and short handed as their  best player Devon Booker will be out the the lineup tonight as is forward Dragan Bender (thumb) is day-to-day, while forward T.J. Warren (ankle) is out until the All-Star break. After being humiliated by Houston in a 125-98 loss on Saturday you can bet the Jazz on extended rest will be ready to run here tonight and what Im betting will be an easy win and cover. 

PHOENIX is 10-22 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg differential clicking in at around 15 ppg. 

The Jazz are 11-0 ATS /SU as a 8+ favorite off a home game after allowing 15+ points more than Vegas projected with all the wins coming by 15 points or more. 

Play on Utah to cover ( LATE STEAM)

Im projecting that the banged up and short handed Suns will have problems putting points on the road here tonight against a well rested Jazz team. Im betting this disheartened  Suns team will play closer attention to defense and just try to get out of here without being to embarrassed by the final score.  That will result in a total combined score that stays on the low side of the number.  UTAH has gone UNDER  in 19 of their L/24 off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more  with he combined average score clicking in at 192.7 ppg. 

The Suns are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a road 8+ dog off a loss as a home dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent. The Suns have only twice score more than 100 points in those 9 games with the average combined output clicking in at 94.6 ppg. 

The Jazz are 0-12 UNDER L/12 at home with rest off a home game when they are off two games in which their opponent had double-digit steals and it is before the All-Star break with the average combined score of 183 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 33-11 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Wisconsin has revenge on board for a loss thye suffered to Minnesota about a month ago at home, and will now be hell bent on getting even here. Minnesotas HC Richard Pitino has seen his team go just 1-7 /0-8 ATS L/8 in conference situation vs a avenging side like the Badgers. With that said, Im betting on a Badgers team that is 4-1 SU in conference road games this season to deliver the cash for us tonight. 

Wisconsin to cover 

Dallas on 4 days rest behind their revamped line-up that will feature new additions, Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee from the New York Knicks (trade) will  Im betting will be ready to roll in a big way here tonight vs a Charlotte team on tired legs after playing last night. 

The Hornets are 0-7 ATS /SU on the road off a game as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 . 

NBA  Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 172-111 for a 61% conversion rate over the L/22 seasons.

The Mavericks are 15-0-1 ATS L/15 at home off a road game after a game with 8+ lead changes which happened 4 days ago in their Last outing vs Cleveland. 

Play on Dallas to cover 

Both these teams enter this game a little banged up, and are looking forward to the all star break. Both teams have looked good this season, but Denver according to my power rankings is the superior side. It must be noted that his  Brooklyn team  is suddenly in a funk and on a 3 game losing streak and are pooched and in an emotional letdown spot after tangling with Milwaukee last time out, which makes them susceptible to being possibly upset here right in their own backyard. With that said, Im recommending we take the points with the Nuggets.

The Nets are 0-14-1 ATS /0-15 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field and it is before the All-Star break and are 1-18-1 ATS / 1-19 SU  at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field. 

The Nuggets are 14-0 ATS/SU when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss in which they scored 10 or more points in the first than the fourth quarter which was the case in a defeat vs Detroit last time out on the road.The Nuggets are 15-0 ATS/SU  when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field and it is before the All-Star break.

 NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - sub par defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 99-147 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver Nuggets to cover 

Ole Miss after a quick start to their campaign are coming back down to earth and have lost 4 straight games, and 5 of their L/6 and  are wobbly favs at this time. I know Texas A&M do not inspire bettors in their current form, but its not like their incapable of pulling off upsets as was the case vs Alabama and Kansas State already this season . Also after playing against Tennessee last time out this will seem  like a proverbial walk in the park for the Aggies. note: A&M owns a 6-2 lead in the all-time series between the schools and has won each of the last three meetings.

TEXAS A&M is 10-2 ATS  in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Texas A&M to cover