8* DePaul (7:30 ET): So DePaul is REALLY having a rough go of it lately. The Blue Demons have been without the services of their two top scorers and as a result have won just once over the last month. They’ve lost five straight, none of those coming by fewer than seven points. But they did compete hard against Seton Hall on Wednesday, easily covering the 14-point spread. They actually led outright, 46-42, in the second half before wilting late. They may be getting back one, or both, of the two leading scorers today. Regardless, I am taking the points in this one. 

St. John’s is a hot team right now as they’ve won seven of eight, the lone defeat coming by three points at Butler. However, it is notable that I faded the Red Storm in their lone defeat. In the analysis, I pointed out that this is not a good team defensively. They are giving up 76.7 PPG and that makes it difficult to cover the spread when you’re favored by this many points. Interestingly enough, this game marks the first time all year that the Johnnies are being asked to lay more than three points to a Big East opponent! 

They were only one-point favorites when they visited DePaul late last month. Now they did win that game 81-68, thanks to a big 1st half and some dreadful DePaul shooting. I think it’s worth mentioning that the Red Storm are just 8-19 ATS their L27 games when favored by 9 to 12.5 points at home. I’d obviously love it if DePaul could get back either Moore or Freeman-Liberty, but I think their defense can keep them in this one. The Blue Demons have held eight of their last nine opponents under 70 points (St. John’s the exception) and this will be their best offensive game in awhile. 8* DePaul

10* South Dakota (4:00 ET): South Dakota has hit a recent downturn, losing three straight including two when favored at North Dakota last weekend. The losing streak has taken the Coyotes out of first place in the Summit League. They were previously 9-0 SU in conference play. They’re still tied for the most conference wins, but are now one-half game back of surging rival South Dakota State, who is 7-2 SU. I think it’s important to note that all three losses for the Coyotes came on the road. They’re back in Vermillion Saturday, hosting Oral Roberts in a key set of games. I’ll lay the short number here. 

Oral Roberts split with South Dakota State last weekend. They scored 103 in the win, but gave up 95 in the loss. Expect a high-scoring game today as the last 14 meetings between these teams have all gone Over! However, South Dakota does have a big edge defensively as they’re giving up just 63.7 PPG at home, a big reason they are 5-1 SU here. Oral Roberts is giving up more than 80 PPG on the road. They allowed an average of 90.5 PPG in the two games last week vs. South Dakota State. This is a problem facing a South Dakota team that topped 90 in each of its last two home games. 

South Dakota has played 8 of its last 10 games on the road. They’ll close out the regular season with four straight at home, so I like their chances of winning the conference. When favored at home this season, the Coyotes are winning by an average of more than 25 PPG! So this looks to be a really discounted price here. They scored 57 points in the second half of their last game and I say they “score at will” here. 10* South Dakota

8* Syracuse (2:00 ET): Notre Dame comes in red hot here, as they’re 5-0 ATS L5 games. They’ve won four of those five games straight up w/ the only loss coming by two at Georgia Tech. But the ACC isn’t really all that strong this season and the teams that the Fighting Irish have been beating generally reside near the bottom of the standings. In fact, other than Duke (who is widely overrated), the Irish’s three other recent victories have come against teams in the bottom five in the conference. 

Syracuse has also won two straight vs. bottom tier ACC teams, beating NC State 77-68 and Boston College 75-67 last week. But the Orange’s 12-6 SU record is a lot better than Notre Dame’s 9-10 SU and I’m a little perplexed as to why this number would be so low at home. I’ve got the ‘Cuse rated as the better team and they’ve gone an impressive 10-1 SU this season at the Carrier Dome, including a dominant win over Top 25 Virginia Tech. They’re outscoring visitors by an average of 12.7 points per game. 

Syracuse is currently just one game back of the top four in the ACC, which would give them a double bye for the conference tournament. So it’s a big game for them today. Looking at the remaining schedule, they absolutely can win out. The Orange do an excellent job at defending the three-point line, especially at home where they allow opponents to shoot just 28% from behind the arc. That’s critical when facing Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish rank only 142nd nationally in defensive efficiency, which is a problem. 8* Syracuse

10* Tarleton State (9:00 ET): This is a battle of squads wrapping up their first regular season in Division I. The WAC, a real “rogue’s gallery” of a conference, welcomed both schools for 2020-21 and as you might have guessed, it hasn’t gone great for either Tarleton State or Dixie State. The former is 6-8 SU while the latter has gone 7-10 SU after an upset of Utah Valley State (as 11-point underdogs) last Saturday. Tarleton State has played only two games in February (because of COVID) and both were against non-DI opponents that they easily defeated by a combined score of 209-80. 

Prior to manhandling overmatched McMurry and SW Adventist, Tarleton State did the same thing that Dixie State just did. That being split with Utah Valley State. It was the same thing with an outright win in the second game preceded by a DD loss in the first. So the Texans actually come into this game riding a three-game win streak. Now all but one of their victories this year have been versus non-DI teams. But, believe it or not, my power ratings say they should be about a 5-point road favorite here. That’s a major difference from the actual spread. 

History could be made here if Dixie State closes as a favorite. It would be the Trailblazers’ first time ever being favored vs. a D-I opponent. Now similarly, Tarleton State has never been favored in such a game. But they’ve had more time to prepare for this game (10 days) and should be more than ready. I know it seems “risky” taking a “bad” team, but Tarleton State is the much better side here and the oddsmakers aren’t accounting for that. 10* Tarleton State

10* Golden State (7:05 ET): Well, here we go again. Golden State is coming off B2B wins. This is a situation where they are 0-6 this season, both straight up and against the spread. On the bright side, the Warriors haven’t lost three in a row at any point this season either. They are now 16-13 overall and in 7th place in the Western Conference. They’ve won four of five, the only loss coming to Brooklyn last Saturday. At some point, you have to figure the Dubs are going to break through and deliver that elusive three-game win streak. I believe that time is tonight as they face a lowly Magic team they beat last week.

Golden State did not cover last week against Orlando as they were nine-point favorites in what turned out to be a 111-105 victory. Steph Curry made 10 three-pointers in that game and it was really just one bad quarter that cost the Warriors the cover that day (they were outscored 36-18 in the second). Curry did not have a good shooting night against Miami on Wednesday, but the team was still able to rally from a 19-point deficit to win 120-112 in overtime. That followed a 31-point win over Cleveland.

I realize that the Warriors are a bit short-handed right now and Orlando is healthier than they were last week. But the spread is short and Dubs are due. Orlando is off a rare win (107-89 against the Knicks), but has not won two straight since a couple victories over Cleveland back in early January. They are just 5-16 SU since and have the third worst point differential in the NBA this season. The spread is shorter than it was last week and it’s not like Orlando has any kind of strong home court advantage. They are losing by an average of 10.2 PPG as a home underdog. 10* Golden State

8* Under Oakland/Milwaukee (6:00 ET): You would be correct for saying it feels like “we’ve been here before” with Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies started their season with a rash of Overs before we took them (and cashed) Under in a game against Detroit on December 26th. That game stayed Under despite going to OT. Oakland has largely remained an “Over team” this season and is now on its longest Over streak (5 straight games) since I played that Under two months ago. It’s time to go Under again on Friday. 

Milwaukee will also be entering this game on a 5-game Over streak. The last four have all been losses. The Panthers had the tough assignment of facing Wright State on the road last weekend and gave up 92 points in both games. The final scores were nearly identical as Milwaukee scored 81 and 82 in the two games. Two things killed the Panthers in the second game with Wright State. They sent the Raiders to the FT line 26 times (WSU went 24-26) and allowed them to hit 10 of 19 3PA. Truthfully, things were not much better in either department in the first game of the weekend. 

But Milwaukee isn’t facing Wright State tonight, they’re facing Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies don’t shoot the ball very well (41.3% overall) despite going Over all the time. The issue (for both teams) all year has been poor defense. But this looks like it will certainly close as the highest O/U line all year for Milwaukee and it’ll be right up there with the highest for Oakland, who is only 4-4 Over when the number is 150.0 or higher. 8* Under Oakland/Milwaukee

10* Under Heat/Kings (10:05 ET): The Heat have lost three in a row. The Kings have lost four in a row. So something is going to have to give in the lone NBA matchup NOT being televised on TNT Thursday night. Placing the Heat at a disadvantage is the fact they played last night at Golden State where they lost 120-112 in overtime. But the Kings certainly weren’t as good as their record BEFORE going 0-4 SU/ATS L4 games (all at home). They have the third worst point differential in the Western Conference.

It was 105-105 at the end of regulation last night for the Heat, a score that sends a “shiver” down my spine. That’s because it was the same exact score for Chicago-Indiana Monday night when overtime similarly ruined an Under play I had. The fact that last night’s game stayed Under by double digits in regulation absolutely should be accounted for here. I know the Kings are bad defensively, but Miami has failed to score more than 105 pts in regulation in four of its last five games. They are 27th in the league in scoring.

Sacramento’s last three games have all gone Over the total as they’ve allowed 123, 124 and 136 points. Again, I know they are bad defensively. But this could be as favorable a matchup as they’ve gotten in a while at that end of the floor. When these teams met three weeks ago, it was a 105-104 final (Miami win) and neither team shot all that poorly. I don’t see why we should expect in excess of 15 more points scored the second time around. The Heat are 7-3 Under in non-conference games. 10* Under Heat/Kings

8* Rutgers (9:00 ET): After a three-week hiatus, #3 Michigan was successful in its return to the court Sunday. They downed #21 Wisconsin 67-59, however you shouldn’t be fooled by that score as the Wolverines trailed by 12 at halftime. Given the long layoff, I suppose a slow start by the Maize and Blue shouldn’t have been all that surprising. And their performance in the second half was definitely impressive. But I simply want no part of them laying this many points to a “sneaky” Rutgers team that could use a “signature” win to strengthen its own NCAA Tournament resume. Take the points here. 

Rutgers’ only loss in its last six games was at Iowa last Wednesday. They shot very poorly from the 3-point range (6 of 28) and attempted only six free throws in the game. Obviously, 66 points will almost never “cut it” in Iowa City. However, the Scarlet Knights did bounce back over the weekend with a 64-50 win against Northwestern. That kind of effort at the defensive end will almost ALWAYS “get it done.” Rutgers comes into tonight ranked #14 in the country in defensive efficiency. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game so far this season. Given they were “only” +6.5 at Iowa (who I think is a little better than Michigan), I’m surprised this line opened so high. 

Rutgers has NEVER beaten Michigan in 13 all-time tries. But they’ve played them tough in each of the L3 seasons. This is the only time they’re scheduled to meet in 2021. The Wolverines have obviously been impressive and can make a claim to be the best team in the country, besides Gonzaga and Baylor. But they’ve still only played one game in three weeks and it saw them start slow. Rutgers has held its last five opponents to a field goal percentage of 37.5. 8* Rutgers

10* UCLA (9:00 ET): Because they’ve failed to cover in seven straight contests, we are getting a discounted price on the Bruins tonight. I’ll bite. Mick Cronin’s team was able to win Saturday, 64-61 over Washington, thanks to a career-high 32 points from Johnny Juzang. With the number being so short here, the pointspread is basically a non-factor against an Arizona team that has lost four of its last six games and at this point should be considered a “long-shot” to make the NCAA Tournament. UCLA is a perfect 9-0 SU at home this season, not to mention 4-0 SU/ATS the L3 seasons vs. the Wildcats, so I’m on the favorites. 

You’ve got to remember that UCLA got off to a 8-0 start in Pac 12 play. Two of their five losses this year were to Ohio State and San Diego State (both ranked) and another by just a single point (at Stanford). They’ve already beaten Arizona once, 81-76 as four-point underdogs on Tucson back on January 9th. Because of the win over Washington on Saturday, the Bruins are probably the only team in the Pac 12 that can catch USC and they host the Trojans in the regular season finale. 

Arizona lost at home to Oregon on Saturday, 63-61 as a 1.5-point favorite. They’ve also lost their last two road games. HC Sean Miller called his team’s defense “horrible” after the 1st loss to UCLA and I’d have to concur as they’ve allowed 80+ points five times in conference play. This is a team that gets most of its offensive production from freshman and at the free throw line, not exactly a winning combination on the road. UCLA has won its nine home games by an average of 14.1 PPG. This looks like a bargain. 10* UCLA

10* Over Blazers/Pelicans (9:05 ET): The Blazers have moved into a fourth-place tie (w/ Phoenix) in the Western Conference standings. They won their fifth in a row last night, beating Oklahoma City 115-104. Damian Lillard led the way with 31 points, 12 of those coming in the fourth quarter. That Portland has continued to win in the face of two key injuries (McCollum, Nurkic) is pretty impressive, but let’s see how they do here in the second night of a back to back. They are 5-0 ATS during the 5-game win streak. 

New Orleans is just outside the top 10 in the West right now, although they have scored more points than they’ve allowed. That’s thanks to an impressive 144-113 win in Memphis last night, the fifth straight Pelicans game to go Over the total. These games aren’t just “sneaking” over either; they’re FLYING over. There have been three separate times in the five games that NO has scored at least 130 points. They even lost one of them! They’ve allowed 123 or more points three times as well. 

Seeing as Portland is 29th in the league in defensive efficiency, this has all the makings of another high-scoring Pelicans’ game. The teams haven’t met in roughly a year, but the last two times produced combined point totals of 243 and 255. Both were Pelicans’ victories as they averaged 133 PPG. They shot 61% last night, including 19 of 38 from three. The previous three games saw them ALLOW an alarming shooting percentage of more than 55%. The Over is 11-3 in games where the Pelicans are favored. 10* Over Blazers/Pelicans

8* Boise State (9:00 ET): I can’t see the Broncos losing again here, especially at home. They come into tonight’s important Mountain West clash with Utah State having gone just 3-3 SU their last six games. This after starting the season 12-1 SU with the only loss coming to Houston, a legit top ten team, in the season opener. BSU swept a pair of home games with UNLV last weekend and it’s developing into a VERY tight four team race atop the MWC. All of Boise’s losses this year have been on the road. 

These teams are basically tied for first in the Mountain West, though technically Utah State is ahead by percentage points with an 11-2 SU conference record while Boise State is 12-3. Lurking right behind is Colorado State (who BSU split with in Fort Collins) at 11-3. But then you’ve got perhaps the best team, San Diego State, who is ranked #25 in the country despite being in fourth place in the conference! Utah State swept San Diego State and split with Colorado State, but the key is all four of those games were at home. 

Tonight marks the fourth consecutive road game for USU. They’ll also play here Friday. However, the big key is the Aggies haven’t played in 13 days due to COVID. Three straight games were postponed. So they are out of “rhythm” heading into this critical clash. Boise State is not only 8-0 SU at home, they are allowing just 58.5 PPG and winning by more than 17 points per game. I think it’s a steal that we are able to get them at such a cheap price Wednesday night. 8* Boise State 

8* Over DePaul/Seton Hall (8:30 ET): DePaul has gone Under in 10 straight games. The most recent was their lowest scoring yet, a 57-47 home loss to Providence. The Blue Demons are really struggling to shoot the ball right now as they have a field goal percentage well below 40% the L4 games. That number has GOT to improve. Tonight they are at Seton Hall, a team they scored 68 against earlier in the season while shooting 41.7%. That game was actually early in DePaul’s Under streak, but it’s certainly worth noting that the total for the rematch is 10 points lower.

Meanwhile, Seton Hall will be going for a fourth straight win tonight. They beat Marquette 57-51 here at home on Sunday, So both teams are coming off REALLY low-scoring games. Seton Hall shot just 37% vs. Marquette, but was at 52% when they beat DePaul last month. The Pirates have an excellent shot at winning out, which would greatly improve their NCAA Tournament chances, presuming they don’t “flame out” in the Big East Tourney. 

I know there’s not much recent evidence to support it, but I do see this game going Over the total. DePaul could be missing two of its top scorers, but this is a REALLY low total and Seton Hall scored 80 points two games ago. DePaul gives up 76.5 PPG on the road, which is key, and if Seton Hall can get to 80 tonight (very doable), then we’re in good shape. The first meeting would have gone Over this total. A 10-point shift in the O/U line is A LOT. 8* Over DePaul/Seton Hall

8* Valparaiso (8:00 ET): #23 Loyola Chicago was a big winner for me on Saturday as they rode a huge second half to an 81-54 blowout of Drake. But the Ramblers weren’t able to sweep the weekend series, losing Sunday in overtime by a score of 51-50. While they now have to be more concerned with keeping Drake (1 GB) “at arms’ length” in the race for the regular season Missouri Valley crown, this is a classic letdown spot for Loyola and they are laying a HUGE number against Valparaiso. I’m taking the points. 

Now the fact Loyola only allowed 105 points in two games over the weekend, one of which went to overtime, has to be a bit scary for Valpo here. Especially since they could only score 39 in the first meeting with the Ramblers, which was at home last month. As you could probably ascertain, it was a dreadful shooting game for Valpo, who was held to 30.6% overall and 3 of 20 from 3-pt range. You’ve gotta figure they’re going to shoot better tonight. Their FG% is at 44.6 L5 games. 

The Crusaders are off a loss here, 74-60 at Northern Iowa Sunday. While I don’t think for a second that they are likely to pull the outright upset tonight, this is a ton of points they’re getting and there’s been only one other time besides the first Loyola game that Valpo lost by more than 20 points. Last year’s three meetings with Loyola were decided by a total of SIX points. The Ramblers are 1-5 ATS their last six games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points, including 0-2 this season. 8* Valparaiso

10* Over Nets/Suns (10:35 ET): This should be a fun one from Phoenix Tuesday night on TNT. The Suns are most definitely a “team on the rise” (see what I did there) in the Western Conference as they are currently 4th in the standings. Their ascension really began last August in the bubble when they won every game. That may not have been enough to make the playoffs last season, but I’d bank on there being postseason basketball in the desert in 2021, which would be the 1st time that's happened in 11 years. 

Brooklyn is a team that believes it can win a NBA Championship. They’ve won three straight while also covering the spread against Indiana, Golden State and Sacramento. However, even with that win streak, the Nets are still only 17-12 SU and third in the Eastern Conference. This West Coast trip has definitely gotten off to a high-scoring start as the team has topped 130 points in both wins. The Nets now lead the league in scoring (121.4 PPG), but defense is an issue as only the Wizards and Kings allow more points per game. They just faced the Kings last night and a total of 261 total points were scored!

So it shouldn’t be a surprise to learn that the Nets are one of the league’s top Over teams. They have the second highest Over percentage for the season (21-8) and only three of their previous 23 games have stayed Under. Not to be outdone, Phoenix is shooting a blistering 51.6% its last five games and has won six straight. While three of those wins have required no more than 109 points, it’s a MUCH different matchup tonight and even with Kevin Durant not playing, this game is likely to go Over. 10* Over Nets/Suns

10* Loyola Marymount (9:00 ET): This is the second meeting of the season for these WCC rivals. Santa Clara pulled the upset the first time, winning 72-69 as 4.5-point road underdogs. That game took place on January 23rd and the Broncos haven’t played since. Their last six games have been postponed due to COVID and two of those were going to be against #1 Gonzaga. Loyola Marymount has also had some postponements, but they’ve gotten in two games since the loss to Santa Clara. They won both, by 25 at Portland and then by four at home against Pacific over the weekend. I’m taking them in the rematch. 

LMU closed Saturday’s game vs. Pacific on a massive 31-13 run, enabling them to pick up the victory. They shot a blistering 55.3% from the field, including 11 of 21 from three-point range. The Lions were also able to “double up” the Tigers in FT attempts for the game. Maybe they won’t shoot that well again tonight, but they probably don’t have to when you consider Santa Clara is averaging only 65.6 PPG and that number actually DROPS here at home. LMU is averaging 69.8 PPG on the season. 

There has been only one time all year that Loyola Marymount has lost as a favorite and it was the first meeting with Santa Clara. The Lions didn’t shoot well that night, but this time it figures to be Santa Clara that struggles offensively due to the long layoff. Loyola Marymount could easily be on a 5-game win streak right now as both losses they’ve suffered during that stretch were by four points or less. They are 5-1 ATS their L6 as a road favorite. The road team has covered seven straight times in this WCC rivalry. 10* Loyola Marymount

8* Michigan State (7:00 ET): There’s been a big change in the pointspread since the last time these teams met. Back on January 8th, MSU hosted Purdue and was a six-point favorite. They lost 55-54, but I don’t think that singular result, or even the fact it’s been a very trying season in East Lansing, justifies the massive swing we’ve got for this rematch. Purdue is off a loss as well, 71-68 at Minnesota, and has only managed to go 2-3 SU its last five games. I’m taking the points here. 

Now Sparty did just get clobbered at home over the weekend, losing by 30 to Iowa (88-58). That leaves them at 4-8 SU, 2-10 ATS in conference play. (Like I said earlier, it’s been a trying season). However, before that ugly loss, Tom Izzo’s team had won two in a row. Let’s be clear here that Purdue is NOT Iowa. While the Boilermakers were ranked as recently as last week, they’ve been involved in a lot of close games recently. Six of their last 11 games have been decided by five points or less, including four of the last six and each of the last three. 

The first meeting saw Michigan State own a 15-point halftime advantage, but they missed 11 of their last 13 field goal attempts and that’s why they lost by one point. You have to figure Izzo will have his team ready to play after being embarrassed by Iowa on Saturday. Purdue didn’t play over the weekend. The fact the Boilermakers have just one win by more than five points in their last six games looms large in my handicapping of this game. This should be a close, low-scoring battle and I give the underdogs a very good shot at winning outright. 8* Michigan State

8* Cleveland (10:05 ET): Already in a terrible way, the Cavs find themselves in the second night of a back to back against old nemesis Golden State. Of course, things are a lot different now than they were when LeBron James was here. Going back to the 2017 Finals, Cleveland has lost 14 of 15 to the Warriors including an 0-9 SU record since James left. They are just 2-7 ATS in those nine losses. However, this isn’t the same Warriors team either (compared to 2017). I actually think this spread is quite inflated. 

Saturday night saw a troubling pattern continue for the Warriors. For the sixth time this season, they were coming off B2B wins. And for the sixth time they failed to win a third straight game. The Dubs are now 0-6 ATS when off B2B wins this season, after falling to the Nets 134-117 here at home Saturday night. Now they also have yet to suffer three consecutive losses this season, but the point is that Golden State is decidedly mediocre. They’ve actually only been favored in 9 of their 27 games, a far cry from how they used to be priced in their “championship years.” 

Now Cleveland is obviously not Brooklyn and no longer is Golden State off B2B wins. But I still view this spread as being a product of the perception of Cleveland and the situation they find themselves in. Seven straight losses doesn’t help that perception, but that’s okay as this is a clear chance to “fade the public.” The fact the Cavs are also 1-9 ATS L10 also has inflated the number. I just don’t think they’re quite *THAT* bad and will take the points. 8* Cleveland

8* Washington (8:00 ET): Washington is pretty bad (they are 3-16 SU!), but I actually don’t think Washington State is all that much better. When the Apple Cup rivals met two weeks ago, the Huskies were actually slight favorites. Now they lost that game by 15 points and now they’re on the road, but still I think the line is too high for this rematch. The Huskies played UCLA tough over the weekend, losing by just three (at home) while Wazzu was beaten by 11 (also at home) by USC. Take the points here.

Washington never actually led against UCLA on Saturday, but did show a lot of resolve by battling back from an early double-digit deficit to tie the game in the final minutes. They did so despite not even shooting the ball that well (36.2% overall) while UCLA made not only 47.1% overall, but 50% from three-point range. I know that the Huskies are winless on the road this season (0-10!), but this might be the best chance to pick up a road win all season. My power ratings say the spread should be no higher than +5. 

Washington State actually upset UCLA here in Pullman last Thursday. But they could not match the hot shooting from that game in the loss to USC. The Cougars have lost 8 of 11 overall and while all three wins have come in the last five games, tonight marks the 1st time they’ve been favored in over a month. Leading scorer Isaac Bonton had to be helped off the floor at the end of the game Saturday (ankle) and he’s not the only player questionable for this game (Jakimovski). 8* Washington

10* Under Bulls/Pacers (7:05 ET): Indiana had a big fourth quarter (41 points) Saturday night and wound up picking up a road win in Atlanta. They outscored the Hawks 27-7 down the stretch en route to a final score of 125-113. Meanwhile, Chicago is off a loss to the Clippers (125-106 as 7-point underdogs) where they couldn’t come close to the shooting from their previous game (made franchise record 25 three-pointers in a 129-116 win over New Orleans on Wednesday). Let’s talk about what to expect here. 

Prior to winning in Atlanta, the Pacers’ previous four games had all gone Under. In two of the games, both losses, they were held under 100 points. So what we saw Saturday, especially in the fourth quarter, is NOT something you should expect here tonight. The Pacers have now won two straight, but before that had lost six of seven. The one win was high scoring (134-116 against Memphis), but they immediately came back “down to Earth” in the next game and scored just 110. That’s what I expect to transpire tonight.

Chicago hasn’t beaten Indiana in awhile. They’ve lost the last TEN meetings, a streak which goes all the way back to the start of 2018. The last four times these division rivals have met, the game has gone Over. This includes a 125-106 Indiana win the day after X-Mas. But, as already alluded to, I anticipate this game being lower-scoring. The Pacers shot almost 56% from the field in that last meeting, which won’t happen again. Nor will the Bulls make 41% from three-point range again. 10* Under Bulls/Pacers

8* Memphis (10:05 ET): My 10* Game of the Week in the NBA faded Sacramento, who I felt was due for a downturn. Sure enough, they lost that game 119-111 (to Philadelphia) and have now dropped two in a row at home after losing 123-112 to lowly Orlando on Friday night. Before losing B2B games, the Kings had won seven of eight (and gone 8-0 ATS), which I viewed as somewhat improbable given they rank dead last in defensive efficiency (meaning no team gives up more points per possession) and they are pretty clearly a bottom three team in the Western Conference. 

Memphis has not had much to cheer about recently as they’ve dropped five of six - both SU and ATS. This downturn came on the heels of their own somewhat improbable run as they’d won seven in a row from January 8th to February 1st, also going 6-0-1 ATS. When I woke up early Saturday morning, I had to do a “double-take” when I saw the Grizzlies’ final score against the Lakers. They lost 115-105, which isn’t that surprising on the surface, but consider they started that game on a 22-2 run! When I saw that score prior to falling asleep, I (foolishly?) assumed the Grizz were on their way to a nice victory. 

Now Memphis will be short-handed tonight (just 9 players available), but that didn’t stop them from racing out to the huge lead against the Lakers, whom they held to 6 of 30 from three-point range. Sacramento could also be missing a key player - PG D’Aaron Fox - who missed the Orlando game. Marvin Bagley III also missed that game and is also listed as questionable. In the end, I simply view Memphis as the superior team here and due for a better result after the meltdown vs. the Lakers. Sacramento is 0-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. 8* Memphis

10* Dallas (7:35 ET): I used the Mavs on Friday when they beat the Pelicans 143-130. It was their fourth straight win following a six-game losing streak. In my analysis, I made clear that I expect the Mavs to start moving up the Western Conference standings and finish in the top six. They had the most efficient offense in the league last season and were actually better than their record. That they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games has them undervalued at home on Sunday vs. Portland. 

The Blazers also come into tonight’s game on a win streak. They’ve won three straight and are now 5th in the West. But I expect these teams to be “switching positions” by season’s end. All three recent Blazers’ victories have been at home and two were against Orlando and Cleveland. My biggest concern with this team is not that they are without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for an indefinite period of time, but rather the fact they are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. There’s been some recent improvement on that end of the floor, but that’s largely owed to the teams they were facing.

Dallas just dropped a season-high in points its last time out with Luka Doncic scoring a career-high 46 and Kristaps Porzingis scoring a season-best 36. Now, will things go that easily again? Probably not. But I do think the Mavs are going to score a lot in this game. While their three wins before beating the Pelicans were by a combined eight points, the Mavs are due to go on a nice ATS run and I’ll definitely lay the points here. 10* Dallas

10* Maryland (7:00 ET): The Terps have been a bad matchup for Minnesota in the past, going 9-2 SU the L11 meetings including a perfect 4-0 the L4 here in College Park. They won 63-49 last month in Minneapolis, a result that was owed to an edge in rebounding and poor Minnesota shooting. The Golden Gophers connected on just 30.4% of their field goal attempts for the game and were 5 of 23 from three-point range. I’m a little surprised that this number opened so short. I’ll lay the points.

Now Minnesota is off a 71-68 win over #24 Purdue. Despite the Boilermakers being ranked, oddsmakers did NOT consider that to be an upset as the Golden Gophers came in as 2.5-point favorites. Still, the Gophers did need to rally in the final two minutes as they were down five. They outscored Purdue 12-4 over the final 2:10 with leading scorer Marcus Carr providing the difference with eight (points) of his own. While 3-0 ATS its last 3 games, it must be mentioned that Minnesota is 0-6 SU on the road this season.

The individual results have been every bit as ugly as the record for Minnesota on the road. They’ve lost the six games by an average of 17.3 PPG, allowing opponents to shoot 52.8% from the floor while they are shooting just 34.1% themselves. They’ve covered just one spread on the road this season and that was at Rutgers when they were getting 5.5 in a 76-72 loss. Maryland shoots the ball better than Minnesota and has a higher defensive efficiency rating. They also hold victories over Illinois and Wisconsin (both on the road!) 10* Maryland

8* Central Florida (1:00 ET): Cincinnati’s season was halted for nearly a month. Since returning to the court (on 2/4), the Bearcats are 3-0. However, those three wins have come by a COMBINED eight points and none were by more than three. As you probably guessed, all three games were not decided until the final minute. The most recent escape came on Friday against Temple as a few late free throws ensured a 71-69 victory (but not a cover). I think the Bearcats are due to lose and will take the points here.

Central Florida  is also off a narrow win on Friday as they beat Tulane 53-49. The Golden Knights held the Green Wave to just 19 points after halftime, which was the key to victory. There haven’t been too many victories this season in Orlando as UCF is just 3-9 SU its L12 games. But they’ve won two of the last three and the lone loss was by one point (61-60) to Wichita State. The Golden Knights have allowed an average of just 56 PPG during this three-game stretch, something I like to see from an underdog. 

Cincinnati has not been at .500 at any point this season. They come into Sunday at 6-7 SU on the year. They had really been struggling prior to the season being put on pause and three consecutive razor-thin victories are not enough to convince me this team is anything but mediocre. The Bearcats really struggle from three-point range (28.7%) and in what promises to be a very low-scoring game, you’re going to want to take the points. UCF won the first meeting 75-70 as a 2-point dog. 8* Central Florida

8* Golden State (8:35 ET): This Saturday night matchup figures to get a lot of hype as Kevin Durant faces his former team. Of course, Brooklyn is now the “super team” with Durant combining forces with Kyrie Irving and James Harden. But the results haven’t been quite as dominant as you’d expect with the Nets still only third in the Eastern Conference with a 15-12 record. They are just 6-6 SU since the Harden trade, although they did win their last game, 104-94 over Indiana Wednesday night.

Golden State is just trying to get back to respectability following last season’s injury-plagued debacle. We’re probably never going to see them reach the heights of the teams that made five consecutive NBA Finals, but the Warriors have been looking better of late (two straight wins) and are now 8th in the Western Conference. After winning 114-91 in San Antonio on Tuesday, they defeated Orlando 111-105 on Thursday. It was the third straight game holding the opposition to 105 pts or less, precisely the kind of defensive effort I am looking for here.

The big story (besides Durant’s return) tonight is the fact the Dubs have yet to produce a single three-game win streak this season. It’s going to happen and with them getting points at home, tonight looks to be a solid value. Durant, who has been cleared, hasn’t suited up since last Friday so he could very well be rusty in a high-profile spot. The fact the Nets are allowing 122.3 PPG on the road this season is another concern. Golden State is simply much better defensively as they allow only 108.4 PPG at home. 8* Golden State

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10* Over 76ers/Suns (3:05 ET): Phoenix comes into this game on a 4-game win streak. All four wins were at home and they’ve covered the spread every time out. The most impressive of the four victories came Wednesday when the Suns erased a 16-point deficit and beat Milwaukee 125-124. There is no doubt that this is an ascendent team in the Western Conference, after last year’s incredible performance in the “bubble” and current 4th place standing. No one will want to face them in the first round of the playoffs. 

Philadelphia is the first place team in the Eastern Conference as they own an 18-8 SU record. But they did just drop a game in Portland the other night, as 5.5-point favorites, 118-114. I’d previously taken them in Sacramento (that was my 10* Game of the Week) and they came from behind in the 4th quarter there to win 119-111. The Sixers’ only two losses in the L8 games both came against Portland (weird) and over the L7 they’ve managed to score at least 114 points six times, which is their season average.

This total looks a little low to me. The last four times the teams have played, the Over has hit. There have been more than 230 total pts scored in each of the teams’ last two games. The Over is 6-2 in the Suns’ last eight games following a SU win. The Over is also 13-6 in the Sixers’ L19 games, including 5-2 on the road. 10* Over 76ers/Suns

10* UT Arlington (3:00 ET): These teams just met Thursday. It was Texas State coming away with a 63-56 victory as 1.5-point road favorites. Now they’re favored by more at home, which is not a surprise at all, but it certainly opens up an opportunity to take the points with a revenge-minded dog. I certainly would have expected better shooting from UT Arlington at home than the 36.8% they delivered 48 hours ago. They also missed 19 of 25 three-point attempts. It’s been a bit of a rough shooting stretch recently for the Mavericks and as a result, they’ve gone 0-5 ATS L5 games. But they’ve won three of them straight up and I’m taking the points here.

UT Arlington has typically done a good job at the defensive end in league play, holding the opposition to 68 points or less in seven of the last eight games. While they’ve been an underdog prior to this, it’s never been by more than two points, at least to any Sun Belt opposition. This feels like a “buy low” spot.  You’ve got to think they are about to start heating up at the offensive end as they are averaging a solid 73.9 PPG for the year.

Texas State leads the Sun Belt West with an 8-3 SU record, but UT Arlington is just one back in the win column (7-6). The Bobcats have won and covered three straight despite scoring 63 or less in two of the games, so they’re playing excellent defense. But I don’t think the win Thursday necessitates a spread this high, even with the change in home court “advantage.” Texas State is just 5-3 SU at home including a couple loss to Louisiana in late January. With so many of the recent head to head meetings being close (five straight by 8 pts or less), taking the points here is a must. 10* UT Arlington

9* Over Western Carolina/Furman (2:00 ET): Both of these sides have gone Under in six straight games. Those respective six-game streaks include one head to head matchup, which Furman won 75-69 back on January 30th. Since then, the Paladins have actually dropped two of three and Wednesday saw them score a season-low 58 points in a loss to UNC Greensboro where they shot just 31.6% from the field. Look for them to rediscover the “shooting touch” though as today they are back at home where they are averaging 86.1 PPG! 

Western Carolina is at the bottom of the SoCon standings, but ironically the Catamounts are off a win here. They defeated VMI 74-72 in what was the team’s best single-game defensive effort in awhile. Still though, they’ve allowed 70 or more points in 15 of the last 16 games and are giving up 77.7 PPG for the season. On the road, that number jumps to 81.8 PPG. On the bright side, Western Carolina is averaging MORE points per game on the road (77.2) than at home.

In the first meeting, the total closed at 154. It’s several points lower here, opening up some real value. This looks like it will end up as the lowest O/U line for a Western Carolina game in some time, perhaps as far back as December 30th. Their games are averaging 153.9 PPG this season while Furman games average 148.3. The Paladins shoot a blistering 52.3% from the field at home as well. I fully expect them to score 80+ today and if that happens, it should make for an easy Over. 9* Over Western Carolina/Furman

8* Loyola Chicago (12:00 ET): Here’s a matchup I’ve been DYING to see all season in the Missouri Valley. Drake has just one loss this year and it came last weekend, 74-57 at Valparaiso. The Bulldogs have since bounced back with a convincing 80-59 triumph at the expense of Northern Iowa. That improved their record to not only 19-1 SU, but also 15-3 ATS. Both marks are obviously among the very best in the country. But make no mistake about it. Drake is NOT the best team in the MVC this season. That would be their opponents on Saturday.

Loyola Chicago, a name you probably recall from an epic Final Four run three years ago, leads the MVC with a 12-1 SU record. They are 17-3 SU overall and no slouch in the ATS department either at 12-5-1. The Ramblers were even more profitable prior to going 0-2 ATS vs. Evansville last week, though both games were still double digit wins at home. This is very much a Top 25 team (in the country) in my eyes and I expect them to show it Saturday. It speaks volumes that they are favored here.

Loyola sports a top eight defensive efficiency rating. They are allowing only 56.2 PPG on the year, which is #1 in the entire country! Yes, this is probably the best “mid-major” in America (assuming you’ve upgraded Gonzaga from that distinction at this point). They have won 10 straight, nine of those coming by double digits. Drake had numerous close calls prior to its blowout loss at Valpo last week. This is the first time all year that they will be an underdog, but again the oddsmakers have taken a definite “position” on this matchup and so am I. 8* Loyola Chicago

10* Over Bucks/Jazz (9:05 ET): It’s a shame this game ISN’T on ESPN Friday night as we’ve got the team with the best record in the league (Utah) facing the team I feel is still the best in the Eastern Conference (Milwaukee). The Jazz have won 16 of their last 17 games and are very much “for real” as they possess the NBA’s best net efficiency rating. Their record shouldn’t be that surprising, considering the fact they’ve been favored in all but two of their 25 games this season.

Now Milwaukee can claim to have the league’s point differential. They’ve outscored the opposition by nearly 10 PPG this season. That tells me they are very likely to eventually overtake the Sixers for the top spot in the East as I firmly believe scoring differential to be a strong indicator of future outcomes. The Bucks are off a loss though, 125-124 at Phoenix Wednesday, a game in which they blew a 16-point lead. This will mark the first time all season that they have been an underdog.

We’ve got two of the top four efficient offenses meeting here on Friday night, so expect plenty of points. The Bucks have scored 123 or more points in six consecutive games and no, there’s been no overtime during that stretch. Of course, they are averaging 121.4 PPG for the season. Utah’s defense has been really good, especially at home, but containing the Bucks can prove problematic. The Jazz have scored at least 112 in seven of their last eight games. When the teams met in Milwaukee last month, it was a 131-118 Jazz victory and the shooting (on both sides) wasn’t all that great. The Bucks are 4-0 Over on the road when the total is 230 or higher. 10* Over Bucks/Jazz

10* Detroit Mercy (9:00 ET): If you’ve been regularly betting Cleveland State this season, then “my hats off to you.” The Vikings are 14-3 ATS, which is the best cover percentage in the country among teams that have played at least 13 games. They lead the Horizon League, which is a shocker as they were tabbed for 7th in the preseason poll. Per KenPom they’ve had the best “luck” in the entire country as five of their wins have been by three points or less. One of them was last Saturday vs. Oakland, 80-78. 

The Horizon League schedule calls for B2B games every weekend against the same opponent. Cleveland State has not lost the first game of any of these “doubleheaders” all season. But what is truly remarkable about the Vikings is how they have a negative scoring differential over the course of the season, despite being 14-5 SU! That’s largely owed to a pair of blowout losses: 85-49 at Wright State on Jan 16th and 101-46 at Ohio on Dec 6th. In that loss to Ohio, CSU was on the wrong end of a historic40-0 scoring run, spanning halftime, to set a NCAA record. They missed 17 consecutive shots at one point and went nearly 15 mins in the 2nd half w/o making a single basket! 

Detroit is the opponent Friday (and Saturday) and the Titans come in on their own 5-game ATS win streak. They’ve also won all five straight up. While only 8-8 SU on the year, the Titans can claim something Cleveland State can’t and that’s a positive YTD scoring differential. They are 6-1 ATS in road games and are coming off a 27-point win (over Purdue-Fort Wayne). This is a double revenge game. Bottom line is Cleveland State is “due” to lose. Take the points. 10* Detroit Mercy

8* Dallas (7:35 ET): The Pelicans and Mavericks meet for the first time this season with the latter on a three-game win streak. The former had won four in a row before losing Wednesday night in Chicago, 129-116 as a 2.5-point favorite. They allowed the Bulls to hit a franchise record 25 three-pointers! While New Orleans had gone 4-0 ATS (as well as 4-0 SU) before that loss, Dallas has not been good at covering spreads (to say the least!) recently as they are just 1-10 ATS L11 games. 

But I still believe in the Mavs and think they are set to make a move into playoff position in the Western Conference. Despite the ATS woes, they’ve won four of their last five games straight up, including 118-117 over Atlanta Weds night as they overcame a 13-point second half deficit. Defensively, they put the clamps on the Hawks down the stretch, holding them to 9 of 22 shooting in the 4Q. The Pelicans are a team that they handled last season, winning all four times and going 3-1 ATS. The L5 games have seen the Mavs average 123.4 PPG. 

New Orleans, like Dallas, is near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Unlike the Mavericks, the Pelicans have shown no signs of being able to turn that around. Not only were they just scorched by the Bulls, there have been eight games this season where a Pelicans’ opponent has made at least 18 three-pointers. They gave up TWO 40-point quarters to the Bulls, who are not exactly one of the league’s premier offensive teams. The Pelicans are just 4-8 SU on the road this year. 8* Dallas

10* UCLA (11:00 ET): UCLA just suffered its second loss in the last three games and it came in humiliating fashion at the hands of rival USC, 66-48 as 5-point dogs. It was also the fifth consecutive game the Bruins failed to cover. They also lost 73-72 at Stanford. Prior to that, they’d been 8-0 vs. the rest of the Pac 12. Reeling a bit (for the first time all season), I expect UCLA to come out strong Thursday night in Pullman. It was a 30-point win the first time they faced Washington State this year and that was less than a month ago. This number certainly appears to be a bit short.

Wazzu is off four straight road games. They went 2-2 SU, 3-0-1 ATS and lost the last one 68-66 at Oregon State. Very different from UCLA, the Cougars’ run in Pac 12 play did NOT get off to a good start as they went just 2-7 SU the L9. I wonder just how they’ll do here after playing 8 of their last 10 games on the road. The Cougars are not a particularly good shooting team and were held below 40% in Corvallis on Saturday. Other than a win over short-handed Oregon, the Cougs have not beaten any of the top teams in the Pac 12.

UCLA simply blitzed Wazzu in the first meeting, taking a 16-point halftime lead and shooting 54.1% for the game. I know Mick Cronin’s team has been playing a bit short-handed of late, but I see this as a great “buy low” opportunity. This may not be as lopsided as it ended up being in Westwood last month, but it doesn’t have to be with this short number. The Bruins are 8-1 ATS after a game where they scored 50 points or fewer. Their overall shooting is certainly set to improve. 10* UCLA 

8* Eastern Kentucky (9:00 ET): I was a little shocked by this line. Now, if you’ve been following along, then you know I’ve been targeting Belmont for awhile. At 14-0 vs. the rest of the Ohio Valley, the Bruins are the ONLY team in the country (besides Gonzaga and Baylor) to be 9-0 or better in conference play. But with a poor defensive efficiency rating (171st in the country), I’ve got my doubts. They’re coming off a four-game road trip here and easily could have lost two of the games (Austin Peay, Murray State). 

Eastern Kentucky probably isn’t the second best team in the OVC, but they are close. The Colonels are 15-4 SU overall and 9-3 in conference play. Two of those three conference losses occurred earlier in the month (Austin Peay, Murray State) and both were at home, But they’ve since bounced back with a 78-74 win at SIU Edwardsville on Monday. It was a double-digit advantage in the second half and they withstood some hot SIU Edwardsville shooting (50% from 3-pt range). Unlike most of the OVC, Eastern Kentucky has the capability to “trade points” with Belmont. 

In fact, the Colonels play at the fourth fastest tempo in the entire country and average 82.6 PPG. They are 3-1 ATS as a dog this season. This is their first time facing Belmont this season. The Bruins have won 17 in a row overall and have beaten Eastern Kentucky 10 straight times. But I don’t think they’re going to win out. Might they lose outright here? Not that confident, but I will take the points as EKU is 22-8-2 ATS its L32 games overall. 8* Eastern Kentucky

10* Under Raptors/Celtics (7:35 ET): Toronto put 137 points on the board last night. It was their fifth consecutive game topping 120 and 7th in a row to go Over the total. But they were also facing the Wizards, who are as inept defensively as any team in this league. Tonight, on no rest, the Raptors must head into Boston. The Celtics should force this into being a lower-scoring game as they are allowing the second fewest number of points per game in the Eastern Conference right now. I’m going Under here.

Boston enters this game off a loss as they were beaten 122-108 by the red hot Jazz Tuesday night. That was the end of a disappointing 2-3 “West Coast” swing for the Celtics as they had no answers down the stretch. Utah, who has the best record in the league, ended the game on a 14-4 run. It was the most points given up by the Celtics in any game since 1/22 and just the fifth time all season that they allowed 120 or more. The good news (for us) is that the Under has gone 16-5-1 in Celtics’ games when the team is coming off a road trip of at least 7 days. 

This looks to be one of the highest O/U lines for any Celtics game this season. Previous to this, only three of their home games have had a total of 220 or higher. That makes sense given Toronto’s recent offensive numbers, but the Raptors aren’t going to make 19 three-pointers again as they did last night. They’ve faced some BAD defensive teams lately, which partly explains the rash of Overs we’ve seen from their games. It ends here. 10* Under Raptors/Celtics

10* Mississippi (9:00 ET): It speaks volumes that Missouri, ranked #10 in the country, would be an underdog here. Of course, if you’ve been following my commentary this season, you’d already know that I feel Mizzou is among the most overrated teams by the pollsters. They barely crack my top 30 and according to KenPom, they have a top 11 “luck” rating. While the Tigers did produce arguably their most impressive win of the season, 68-65 over Alabama, I think all that does is produce an opportune time to fade. That’s what I’m doing here. 

Ole Miss is a top 20 team in the country in terms of defensive efficiency, so they are no slouch. In their last two games, the Rebels have upset both Tennessee and Auburn, two teams that have already beaten Missouri this year. Ole Miss has actually beaten all three teams Mizzou has lost to. On January 19th, they went to Starkville and beat Miss State 64-46. Now Ole Miss did have to overcome a 14-point second half deficit to defeat Auburn in overtime. Devontae Shuler hit the GW basket with 0.2 seconds remaining. But color me impressed that the Rebels were able to win such a high-scoring game on the road. 

Both teams have had plenty of close calls recently with Ole Miss’ last two wins both coming by two points each and Missouri’s last three games all by five points or less, including an OT win of their own. But I once again point to the home team’s defensive capabilities as they are allowing just 59.7 PPG here in Oxford. Missouri missed 17 of its 20 three-point attempts vs. Alabama and nearly blew a 20+ point lead. The Tigers are just not an efficient team offensively (9th in the SEC) and they make just 29% of their 3PA on the road. Starter Javon Pickett may be out again as well. This is NOT an upset (though it will be considered one). 10* Mississippi

analysis soon

10* Over Hawks/Mavs (7:35 ET): I cashed the Over when these teams met last week in Atlanta. At the time, Dallas was on a six-game losing streak and totally desperate for a win. They’ve now won three of their last four and every one of those games have gone Over the total. Since beating the Hawks 122-116, the Mavs split a pair of games with Golden State and then defeated Minnesota 127-122 Monday night. They’ve averaged 124.75 points these L4 games and have scored at least 116 in all of them. 

Atlanta also is off a win. They had previously lost three in a row with two sub-100 point games before cruising to a high-scoring, 132-121 win over Toronto on Saturday. The three days off before this rematch were always “on the books;” this was not a case of COVID-19 postponing any games. The only previous time the Hawks played with this much rest was on 1/15 at Utah and that game did not go well as they lost 116-92. I am expecting a lot more points here from two teams that both topped 125 in their last games. 

The Hawks shot 50% from the floor in last week’s meeting, but that wasn’t enough to overcome 27 points from Luka Doncic and a 69-point second half from the Mavericks, who made 23 of 25 free throws. The teams also combined to make 27 three-pointers. Atlanta has been more of an “Under team” this year, especially on the road, but just shot a blistering 56.8% from the field in their last game. Dallas has not only scored 116+ in each of the L4 games, they’ve also given up at least 116 in all four. 10* Over Hawks/Mavs

8* Furman (5:00 ET): These teams just met Monday and I had Furman, who went out and delivered a convincing 68-49 win as 4-point favorites. In light of that result, I’m a little surprised the Paladins are getting points in this immediate rematch, even with the game taking place in Greensboro. As discussed in my previous analysis, UNC Greensboro had really been beating up on the “lesser” SoCon (Southern Conference) teams in building up a seven-game win streak. Meanwhile, Furman had been underachieving. This will be the first time since Dec 15th (at Alabama) that they are getting points! 

There was no underachieving Monday as the Paladins went out and built a double-digit halftime lead and rolled from there. What was most impressive (to me) is that they were able to win convincingly, despite not being at their offensive best. This is a team that averages an impressive 81.2 PPG for the year and they weren’t close to that Monday. They did however “tighten the screws” defensively, holding UNC Greensboro to just 29.0% shooting for the game, including 2 of 18 on three-point attempts. 

While you should expect UNC Greensboro to shoot better tonight at home, they are not a particularly great shooting team. In fact, the Spartans are making only 28.9% of their 3PA for the season and less than 42% of their shots overall. That was a major factor in me taking Furman in the last game and I see no reason to expect differently this evening. UNC Greensboro is only 5-4 SU at home this season, including outright losses to East Tennessee State and Wofford. Furman has four double digit scorers and is simply the better team here. 8* Furman

10* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): Sacramento is playing its best basketball of the season. They’ve won four straight, including upsets of the Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers, and seven of their last eight. They are also 8-0 ATS the L8 games. I view this as being somewhat improbable given where the Kings reside in my own power ratings, which is the bottom of the league. They are still dead last in defensive efficiency, which means no team gives up more points per possession than this one does. Tonight they host Eastern Conference leading Philadelphia and I believe the win streak comes to a crashing halt. 

The Sixers have been playing pretty well of late themselves. They are on a 5-1 SU/ATS run and just beat Brooklyn 124-108 on Saturday. Do I think the Sixers are better than Milwaukee? No, I don’t. But a definite case can be made that they are the East’s 2nd best team. They are 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, so that’s a massive edge there. While the Sixers sometimes struggle to score away from home (109.0 PPG), they shouldn’t here given the fact Sacramento is allowing a ghastly 120.5 PPG at home. 

The defense has improved for the Kings during the 8-0 ATS win streak, but the first month of the season tells me that kind of play won’t last. They’ve moved up to 7th in the Western Conference, but I don’t buy them as a potential playoff team, not even for a second. I’ve got them rated third WORST in the West, ahead of only OKC and Minnesota, who are the bottom two in the standings. Expect a slide to begin tonight. I’m laying the points with Philly as they’ve covered 10 of their previous 12 visits here. 10* Philadelphia

8* Under West Virginia/Texas Tech (9:00 ET): When these teams met on January 25th, they combined for 175 total points in an 88-87 WVU win. When I say “that’s a little bit shocking,” I’m definitely not referring to the fact the Mountaineers were able to pull out a win in Morgantown. No, it was shocking that they combined for that many points. Texas Tech is always considered one of the premier defensive teams in the entire country and this season has been no different as they are allowing just 61.7 points per game. Here at home, that number drops down to 56.5. So I expect this sequel to feature a lot less scoring than the “original.” 

In that first meeting, WVU shot a blistering 57.7% overall from the field, including 12 of 19 on three-pointers. Again, that just doesn’t happen when you’re facing Texas Tech. It’s not like WVU is a great shooting team. They make only 42.9% for the year. The 12 made threes were way more than their season average of 7.3 per game. With the change in home court advantage, expect different results this time as TT is allowing opponents to shoot just 27.9% from behind the arc in Lubbock.

West Virginia had another hot shooting game Saturday as they beat Kansas 91-79. That was their fourth straight game to go Over the total, a streak which began with the win over Texas Tech. But I remain adamant that the Mountaineers were cool off here. The Red Raiders also shot 50% from three-point range in their last game, but that was against a lousy Kansas State squad. They’ve had a couple sub-36.0% shooting efforts recently. It takes some “chutzpah” to expect 40 less points this time around, but I’ll do it. 8* Under West Virginia/Texas Tech

10* Butler (9:00 ET): St. John’s has won six straight. They’ve covered eight in a row. Those streaks include outright wins over UConn and Villanova, who were ranked #23 and #3 respectively at the time of the upsets. The Red Storm have now won four straight on the road after prevailing at Providence Saturday. The 92-81 win was their third consecutive as a dog and the third time they went over 80 points in this win streak, although the other two occasions were against DePaul and Utah Valley State.

Butler is not having its best season. The Bulldogs are just 6-10 SU on the year, although they did just snap a three-game losing skid on Saturday with a 68-58 win and cover (were -5.5) over DePaul. It was the second consecutive game that they covered as they closed +4.5 in a 70-67 loss at Marquette exactly one week ago. I took them there, noting this was now a deeper team with East Tennessee State transfer Bo Hodges being granted eligibility. Christian David also made his debut two weeks ago vs. Xavier and starter Aaron Thompson missed five games earlier in the year. 

Butler has a win over Creighton, so it’s not as if they are incapable of beating quality teams. They have certainly made a habit of beating St. John’s here at Hinkle Fieldhouse. They are 6-0 SU/ATS the L6 times hosting the Johnnies. Last year was a 22-point win here. This is a revenge game after Butler lost by 12 (69-57) in MSG last month. The Red Storm don’t defend as well on the road, giving up 79.9 PPG. They are due for a “slip-up.” 10* Butler

10* San Diego State (11:00 ET): San Jose State has improbably won three in a row, all as underdogs. For much of this season, the Spartans have been one of the absolute worst teams in the country. I should point out that the three wins came against New Mexico and Air Force, who are a combined 3-22 SU in conference play. There is no doubt that the SJSU win streak is going to come to an end tonight at San Diego State, but is this massive pointspread justified? I think so! 

San Diego State has won four in a row, all by at least 27 points. They swept Air Force and Wyoming and are now 13-4 SU on the season. They are trying to track down the top three teams in the MWC (Utah State, Colorado State and Boise State) and have a few games in hand. There’s a good chance the Aztecs will be on an eight-game win streak by the time they head to Boise to conclude the regular season. They’ve been off for more than a week as last week’s games vs. New Mexico were postponed, so they should be itching to get back on the court here.

Making the task tougher for San Jose State here is the possibility that leading scorer Richard Washington may miss the game. Washington isn’t just the team’s leading scorer, he leads the entire MWC at 20.7 PPG. The Spartans did win without him against Air Force, but this is obviously a much taller order. Since January 22nd, San Diego State is 1st in the country in both points per game (93.5) and scoring differential (+31.5 per game). They’ve scored 87 or more in four straight games for the first time since 1971. San Jose State is among the very worst teams in the country defensively (335th in efficiency), not to mention last in the MWC in both PPG allowed and rebounding margin. 10* San Diego State

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): The Cavaliers had been surprisingly competitive for the first month of the season, but things have gone a bit “sideways” for them recently. They’ve lost five of six with the only win coming by two at home over Minnesota. They are 0-6 ATS in those six games. The last three have all been blowout losses, but two of them were against Milwaukee and the other vs. the Clippers. The news that Larry Nance Jr will miss 4-6 weeks with a broken finger isn’t good, but the spot is tonight as I’m going to take the points here in Phoenix, who is in the second night of a back to back. 

The Suns beat Boston last night, 100-91, which was their second straight win and fifth in the last six games. The two wins against Dallas were games they easily could have lost. Both were fourth quarter comebacks. In the first, they trailed by 15 in the second half. The second required a Devin Booker GW 3-pointer with just 1.5 seconds left. After losing in New Orleans (by 22), the Suns bounced back with a win over lowly Detroit and then came last night when they held the Celtics to just 35.5% shooting from the field.

Despite the Celtics not shooting the ball well, things got close at the end with the Suns ahead by only five points with less than three minutes to go. Though Cleveland is not noted as a great offensive team, I’ll project them to shoot the ball a lot better than Boston did last night. Nance is hardly the team’s primary offensive weapon. Collin Sexton leads the team with 23.2 PPG while Andre Drummon is averaging 18.6 points and 14.2 rebounds. Jarrett Allen is shooting 67% from the field in the L10 games. 10* Cleveland

8* Furman (5:00 ET): UNC Greensboro has won 7 straight and now leads the SoCon (Southern Conference) by percentage points over preseason favorite Wofford. Any time a team can put together a win streak of this length, you’ve got to “tip your cap.” However, in this instance, it’s hard to look past the fact the Spartans have really been beating up on the bottom of the conference. All seven victories have been at the expense of the bottom six with four of them coming against the bottom three. 

Now Furman has been trending in the opposite direction of late as they’ve lost three of their four games. They are 0-4 ATS as well. Two of the three losses were on the road though and the one at home was against Wofford. That was on Saturday and the Paladins really faltered down the stretch in their first home loss of the season. Leading scorer Mike Bothwell had just two points in the game and was 0 for 4 from three-point range. Furman led at the half and by 9 with just over 10 minutes to go. But Wofford outscored them 20-13 over the final six minutes to “steal” the win. 

Furman averages 81.9 PPG with a 49.1 FG%, so the kind of shooting we saw Saturday was uncharacteristic to say the least. Meanwhile, UNC Greensboro was only tied at the half with The Citadel their last time out (Wednesday) and actually got outrebounded for the game. The Spartans also shot much better in that game than they do normally. Their season-long FG% is only 42.6% and they really struggle from three-point range (29.3%). I think this is a great spot to step in and take Furman laying a short number at home. 8* Furman

10* Boise State (4:00 ET): Boise State fell 74-72 Thursday night in Reno. They’ve now dropped two of three after winning 13 straight and now trail Utah State by a half-game in the race for 1st in the Mountain West. The Broncos certainly had their chances to win Thursday. They missed the potential game-winning three in the closing seconds after giving up the go-ahead basket with just seconds left. Then there’s the fact they also led at halftime. They’ve now lost five straight times at Nevada. But they get an immediate shot at revenge and I’m laying the points in this one. 

Both teams have been quite successful at the betting window this season. Boise State is 10-5-1 ATS. Nevada is 14-5 ATS, among the most profitable teams in the entire country. The Wolf Pack are now 4-0 ATS taking points after winning outright as 5-points dogs the other night. Boise State has been favored in every conference game so far, so a 7-4-1 ATS record there is pretty impressive. Six of their first seven MWC wins were by double digits.

Then there is a fact that the Broncos are 13-3 ATS coming off a loss the last few seasons. When they were blown out at Colorado State 78-56 last Wednesday, they bounced back two days later with a dominant win of their own, 85-77. Their only other loss this season was the opener at Houston, a legit Top 10 team. From that, the Broncos responded with 31-point victory their next time out. It won’t be that easy here, but I expect them to come through with a win that’s larger than the spread. This is a team that’s allowing only 42.1% shooting for the season. Nevada won’t shoot 52.6% again. 10* Boise State

10* Over Wizards/Hornets (1:05 ET): Washington has now been back on the court for eight games since their two-week hiatus due to COVID-19. They’ve won only twice, both times by just three points. One of those wins I was on. It was the wild 149-146 win over Brooklyn last Sunday. While the Wizards easily covered (+9), it was a game they probably should have lost. The only other win came Wednesday, again as nine-point underdogs, 103-100 over Miami. The Wiz subsequently lost to the Heat 122-95 on Friday. 

Charlotte has been better than I’d anticipated so far as they’re a respectable 10-13 SU. They’ve been an underdog in 17 of the 23 games. They’re coming in off B2B losses, both here at home, as they faced Philadelphia and Utah. Those were a couple tough opponents, so you can’t really be surprised at the end results. Still, you have to be concerned any time a team gives up 138 points like the Hornets did Friday against the Jazz. It was their fourth consecutive game to go Over the total. 

For Washington, Bradley Beal opened the last game by missing his first 13 shots. Needless to say, I don’t think we’ll see that again. Beal leads the league in scoring at 33.3 PPG. The Hornets’ last five opponents have averaged 117.2 PPG on 48.8% shooting. You should also expect the Wizards to give up plenty of points here as well. They are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. Charlotte has topped 120 in three of its last four games and is 4th in the conference in fast break points. Washington is #1 in the league in pace. 10* Over Wizards/Hornets

8* Under Grizzlies/Pelicans (9:05 ET): It was a razor-thin win with the Under (half-point!) on the Pelicans’ matchup with the Pacers last night, but I’m coming right back with the same bet again Saturday as they turn around and host the Grizzlies. As discussed in yday’s analysis, New Orleans had been going Over a lot recently; 8 of 9 games prior to last night. Friday also marked the first time in 15 games that the Pelicans won without scoring 123 or more points. Look for their play on the defensive end to continue to improve here. 

Memphis opened February with a dominating 133-102 win in San Antonio. It was their seventh consecutive win at the time. But now they’ve dropped two in a row, 134-116 at Indiana and 115-103 at home vs. Houston. The hideous defensive effort against the Pacers came on the second night of a back to back. But there was no such excuse for the loss to the Rockets, which surprised me. I should point out that the Grizzlies' games are averaging “just” 219.1 PPG this season, which is comfortably below the total here. 

This will be just the second back to back for the Pelicans so far this season. The first was last Saturday and did not go well as they gave up 126 in a 14-point loss to the Rockets. Expect a better defensive effort this time around though. Despite allowing the Pacers to hit 20 of 42 three-point attempts, the Pelicans only allowed 113 points, which isn’t all that bad. Six of the last seven meetings with Memphis have stayed Under. I also don’t think the Pelicans are going to shoot as well as they have the last two games (around 52%). When the Grizzlies won those seven straight games, they were allowing an average of just 104.3 PPG. Look for them to get back to playing defense as well. 8* Under Grizzlies/Pelicans

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Given what transpired last night, I’m a little shocked the Magic opened as the underdogs here. It was a much needed 123-119 win for the home team on Friday and I backed them as underdogs. They got a career-best 43 points from Nikola Vucevic, who also had 19 rebounds. It was the just the 4th 40-15 game EVER by a Magic player and the first since 2017. I’m coming right back with Magic again tonight. 

My read on this matchup obviously hasn’t changed in the last 24 hours, so I’m going to recycle a good bit of yday’s anaylsis. The key for me is that Chicago just shouldn’t be favored on the road. They are bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency and now 0-2 ATS in the road chalk role this season. Yesterday marked their second loss in a row and fifth in the last six games. They are now giving up 118.8 PPG on the road, just a terrible number. Only Golden State and Brooklyn allow a higher average away from home. Unlike those two teams, the Bulls don’t have the necessary firepower to overcome the defensive deficiencies. 

Each of the last two games have seen the Bulls fall into a double digit hole. They trailed the Knicks by 17 after just one quarter Wednesday night, a game in which they ended up shooting 6 of 36 from three-point range. Last night they were behind by 14 in the fourth quarter. So the game was not “really” as close as the final score seemed to indicate. Chicago is just 1-4 SU on the second night of a back to back. Orlando is actually 2-0 SU/ATS coming off a SU win as a dog. Look for the home team to make it two in a row Saturday night. 10* Orlando

10* Saint Louis (2:00 ET): Perhaps no team in the entire COUNTRY has been more adversely affected by COVID-19 than the Saint Louis Billikens. The preseason favorites to win the Atlantic 10 were in the top 25 of my own power ratings when their season was paused around Christmas time. Unfortunately, the Billikens have gone 0-2 SU since returning to the court, losing outright to Dayton and La Salle over the L10 days. They’ve gotten only 10 games in all season and now must face arguably the hottest team in the A-10, St. Bonaventure, who has won seven in a row.

I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on Saint Louis. While adjustments obviously needed to be made by the linesmakers in the wake of the B2B upsets, this looks like a classic “overadjustment” to me. The Billikens had just four days of practice after not playing for 33 days when they took on Dayton. Then they had a game vs. Richmond postponed just minutes before the scheduled tipoff. Wednesday’s loss at La Salle was a genuine shocker (the Billikens were favored by 12) as they struggled again from three-point range. That’s been the problem in the two games as they are shooting a woeful 7 of 32 from behind the arc.

With more practice time and two games under their belt, you have to figure St. Louis’ shooting is destined to improve. They actually shot 51.8% overall against Dayton; it was just the three-point line that was the problem. Prior to the pause, this has been an excellent three-point shooting team (still 37.4% for the season). At the same time, the Bonnies aren’t going to shoot 61.4% again like they did vs George Mason (at home) last week. The A-10 leaders have been beating up on the bottom of the league while St. Louis has been out of the picture. The Bonnies’ road record could easily be 1-3 SU. 10* Saint Louis

analysis soon

8* Cal Baptist (9:00 ET): I’m a bit stunned to see this line so high. My own power ratings suggest a much tighter spread is appropriate. The game will take place in Las Cruces, the first time NMSU has gotten to play on their home floor since COVID restrictions were lifted in the state. But home court advantage is still not enough to justify the Aggies laying so many points. They have just six games under their belt this season and only three since the New Year. They were swept last weekend at Grand Canyon.

Cal Baptist is coming off a disheartening home loss to Dixie State their last time out. The Lancers were 9.5-point favorites for that one, but fell 79-75 as 9.5-point chalk. That loss snapped a 5-game win streak. The Lancers led by as many as 7 points in the second half, so it’s a game they could have won. While they’ve yet to win on the road this season (0-3), two of three losses have come by single digits. One was against USC in the season opener. Another was by only four points at Utah Valley State. They are 15-7 ATS L22 as an underdog.

New Mexico State has not beaten a single D-I foe this season, so I have no unearthly idea why they’d be favored by so many points here. Their three wins have come against Western New Mexico, Benedictine (AZ) and Arizona Christian. They are 0-3 otherwise, though all those games were on the road. Still, the Aggies scored just 53 points in their last game and can’t possibly be trusted to cover a spread like this. They shot just 36.5% from the field on Saturday and were down by as many as 17. This spread simply looks to be way off. 8* Cal Baptist

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): This has been a very frustrating season for the Magic thus far. They actually have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference and are just 4-13 SU in non-division games. This is a non-division game and they come in having lost four in a row overall and three straight at home. Injuries have been a problem with the latest being forward Aaron Gordon’s ankle, which will keep him out at least a month. The Magic are already without Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac for the rest of the season. 

Chicago has been a “tough out” for much of the season so far, a little surprising, but has also not played well of late. They come into tonight’s game having lost four of five. This will be the first of two in a row in Orlando for the Bulls, who are also dealing with injuries to Otto Porter and Wendell Carter (neither will play tonight). The Bulls have been “road warriors” so far this season with an 8-2 ATS record away from home, however, this will be just the second time they’ve been favored.

The only other time Chicago has been favored away from home this season was 1/15 at Oklahoma City and they lost that game 127-125, in overtime. They also just lost to the Knicks, 107-103 as home favorites, Wednesday night. They fell behind by 17 after the first quarter and shot 6 of 36 from 3-point range. As bad as Orlando has looked recently, I don’t think Chicago should be laying points on the road to anyone as they are still bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a game the Magic really need to win. 10* Orlando

8* Under Pelicans/Pacers (7:05 ET): The Pelicans come into this game off a 123-101 win against Phoenix. That was arguably their best effort in weeks. It was just the fourth win in the last 14 games and what’s interesting there is they’ve scored 123 or more in all four victories. They are 0-10 when not hitting that benchmark. Tonight they’ve got to like their chances against an Indiana team that just gave up 130 on Wednesday, but that was to Milwaukee. I don’t see New Orleans getting to 123 points tonight. 

The Pacers are just 4-6 SU their last 10 games after the blowout loss to the Bucks 48 hours ago. What’s so disappointing is not just that they trailed by as many as 40 points in Milwaukee, but they were coming off a 134-point effort against a previously red hot Memphis team the night prior. It was the worst defensive effort of the season vs. the Bucks, in terms of points allowed in the first half and a game. They also let Milwaukee hit 21 three-pointers, the most EVER by a Pacers’ opponent. You’ve got to bank on the idea that Indiana will come out and play better defense tonight. 

Obviously, both teams have been going Over a lot recently. Indiana in three straight games, New Orleans in 8 of its last 9. As a result, the O/U line tonight is much higher than it was when these teams played last month (216). That game went Over, but only did so because of overtime. The Under is 20-8 for Indiana coming off a game where they allowed 125+ points. Their games have averaged 226.1 PPG this season, which is just under where this number is. Pelicans’ games are at 223.5. I think we’re heading for a surprisingly “low-scoring game” here. 8* Under Pelicans/Pacers

10* Memphis (9:05 ET): These have been two of the league’s hotter teams recently. However, both are off a SU loss. The Grizzlies had their seven-game win streak come to an end Tuesday night in Indiana as they were beaten pretty emphatically, 134-116. It was the second night of a back to back where they were coming off a 31-point win in San Antonio. The Rockets had their six-game win streak end last night in Oklahoma City as they got beat 104-87. Now they are in the second night of a back to back, a situation they’ve somehow managed to be in just one other time all season. 

Memphis is currently tied for 5th in the Western Conference right now with a 9-7 SU record. After opening 0-5 at home, they’ve now won three straight here, beating the Nets, Sixers and Suns, which is an impressive list of teams. This is a top five team in the league in defensive efficiency and they’ve done well coming off a DD loss this season, going 3-1 ATS in that spot. As they know from Tuesday, being rested can be a significant edge when your opponent isn’t and that’s a major reason we’re backing the Grizz in this one. 

Houston didn’t have John Wall in the lineup last night, tonight they’ll be without Victor Oladipo. This is part of the “load management” strategy as both are still recovering from injuries. As mentioned above, the Rockets scored just 87 points last night, a far cry from the “James Harden days” and what they’d done Monday vs. Thunder (scored 136). I think it’s pretty remarkable that this is just the second time the Rockets are in the second night of a back to back this season. It’s also their third road game in four nights and fourth in the last six. They are 2-7 ATS L9 on no rest and 2-11 ATS L13 off a DD loss. 10* Memphis

8* Eastern Illinois (8:30 ET): Yes, I’m going to fade Belmont again. This will be the third straight time as the Bruins’ unbeaten run through the OVC has come very close to ending each of their last two times out. I cashed both Austin Peay and Murray State in the last week vs. Belmont, games the Bruins easily could have lost outright. They beat Austin Peay by five and Murray State by one. Now they are laying big points to Tony Romo’s alma mater in what is their third straight road game. 

While you should take the points, this third OVC play in this report has the potential to be a major upset. Remember that I’ve already cashed Miami over Duke and East Carolina over Houston this week, both were double digit dogs that took the game outright. Belmont (12-0 vs OVC) has the most conference wins without a loss in the country and is certainly “due” to drop a game after the narrow escapes we’ve seen recently. They trailed at the half in each of those L2 games. 

Eastern Illinois ended a LONG losing streak (8 games) with a 70-61 win over SIU Edwardsville on Tuesday. Five of those eight losses came as a favorite, so the Panthers have definitely underachieved this year. They were actually 0-8 ATS in those eight SU losses! But this is the most points they’ll get all season (in conference play) and it’s at home. Talk about motivation - they’ve lost eight straight times to Belmont. But six of those were on the road. This is a team that doesn’t get blown out often. 8* Eastern Illinois

8* Austin Peay (7:00 ET): Like I said in the Murray State writeup, I’m in love with this OVC card tonight! In addition to cashing Murray State against Belmont as my 10* Game of the Month on Saturday, Austin Peay also cashed a winning ticket (for me) at Belmont’s expense recently. They too played the Bruins right down to the wire, only to come up just short of ending Belmont’s unbeaten OVC run. That game, which was on Thursday, saw the Governors lose by only five points. They’ve since beaten Tennessee State and SIU Edwardsville both by 15. 

Tonight, the Governors are at Eastern Kentucky, who is the second place team in the OVC. EKU is 14-2 overall and won nine straight. They’re also a perfect 8-0 SU at home. But shades of Morehead State (who I’m also fading tonight), the Colonials have really been beating up on the bottom of the OVC. Another similarity to that Morehead State fade is that this is a revenge game. Austin Peay lost the first time, by five at home, as a 4.5-point favorite. 

Eastern Kentucky was actually a dog at Jacksonville State over the weekend, which should tell you what the oddsmakers really think of them. They won, but by only four points, their third win by five or less in the past six games. Based on the early line movement, it certainly appears as if Austin Peay is getting some love from sharp bettors and they’ll get my love as well considering they are 3-1 ATS as a dog. EKU is due to lose. 8* Austin Peay

8* Murray State (7:00 ET): I’m in LOVE with the Ohio Valley Conference slate tonight! All three plays in this report come from the OVC, which I’ve been paying close attention to in recent weeks. Just last Saturday, Murray State was my 10* NCAAB Game of the Month as they covered the spread vs. unbeaten (in conference play) Belmont. Just 48 hours later, the Racers shook off that one-point loss by downing SE Missouri State 77-60 on the road. While this is now their third game in less than a week, we are getting a TON of value considering Murray State was a 13-point favorite when they hosted Morehead State earlier this season.

Now that first meeting is something Murray State would like to forget as they lost outright as 13-point chalk, 61-56. It was a dreadful shooting night for both teams, but what was truly remarkable is the Racers shooting just 13 of 31 on two-point attempts! Since that loss, the offense has gotten back on track. They’ve scored at least 71 in six straight games and are now 3-0 ATS in the last three. 

Morehead State has been a covering machine with seven straight ATS victories. They’ve also won nine in a row straight up. The OVC is shaping up to be a three-team race with them and Eastern Kentucky trying to track down Belmont. But, as is evident by this spread, the standings aren’t really representative of the power rankings. Other than the win over Murray State, Morehead has really been beating up on the bottom of the OVC. If Murray State was a 13-point favorite the first time around, they should be favored by a lot more in the rematch. Oddsmakers have overadjusted. 8* Murray State

10* Over Mavericks/Hawks (7:35 ET): I have to say that I’m a bit shocked to see Dallas on a six-game losing streak. Coming into the season, this is a team I expected to battle for a top four spot in the Western Conference. Instead, they are languishing closer to the bottom of the standings with an 8-12 SU record and a lot of “finger-pointing.” Just a few days ago, PG Luka Doncic went on record and said it was “looking like we didn’t care.” The Mavs better start caring or the rest of the West will leave them behind. 

Over in the Eastern Conference, Atlanta is a pretty nice story as they’ve climbed their way into the top six and look like one of the most improved teams in the entire league this season. They did come up short here at home against the Lakers Monday night, losing 107-99, but certainly no one is going to fault them for losing to LeBron and company. While “only” .500 on the season (10-10 SU), the Hawks have a positive point differential and efficiency rating, so they are “going places.”

Most of these losses for Dallas have been close with the most recent (109-108 vs. Phoenix) being decided on a Devin Booker jumper with 1.5 seconds remaining. I still have faith that they’ll eventually turn things around. As for this game, look for both them and the Hawks to increase their scoring from the respective last games. The Mavs led the NBA in offensive efficiency last season, yet have not broken 110 in four consecutive games. Atlanta has been an “Under team” as well, but has seen an uptick in the L5 games. They are 12-2 to the Over L14 games as a home dog. 10* Over Mavericks/Hawks

8* LSU (7:00 ET): This is a giant revenge game for the Bayou Bengals, who lost by 30 (at home!) to Alabama last month. As you can guess from the score (105-75), nothing went right for them that night in Baton Rouge. The tailspin began right away with Alabama opening the game on a 23-4 run. The margin grew to 31 before halftime and never dropped below 26 in the 2H. The Crimson Tide set a SEC record in that game with 23 made three-pointers. Quite obviously, it can’t possibly be THAT ugly for LSU tonight.

Despite what happened to them in the first meeting, LSU is a good team. They come in at 11-5 SU and could have beaten #13 Texas Tech on Saturday. They lost that game by only five points and had a seven-point lead with just over a minute to go. It was the Tigers’ third loss in four games, which goes back to the debacle vs. Bama, so it’s getting to be “desperation time” for Will Wade’s team. Considering they’ve only been beaten twice by more than five points this year, I’ll be taking the points. 

Alabama is also off a loss in the Big 12-SEC Challenge, theirs coming here in Tuscaloosa against an Oklahoma team that was playing without two starters, one of which was Austin Reaves (leading scorer). That snapped a 10-game win streak for the Tide, who are still unbeaten in SEC games (9-0 SU). Only two other teams in the country (Baylor, Belmont) are 9-0 or better in conference play and I can’t see the Tide running the table in the SEC. LSU’s top four scorers were all held below their season averages (in points) the first time around. This time they make a game of it. 8* LSU

8* Kentucky (7:00 ET): UK missed its opportunity to face #6 Texas over the weekend, which may have been for the best seeing as how I don’t think that’s a game they would have won. COVID-19 not only cancelled the Texas game, but pushed this one vs. Missouri back a day. This has obviously not been a typical season in Lexington as the Wildcats are just 5-10 SU and barring some unforeseen run in the SEC Tournament, they will NOT be a participant in March Madness. However, I do see them playing “spoiler” in this spot. 

Missouri is the team that my power rankings differ from the pollsters the most on. The Tigers come into this game ranked #16 in the country, but my power ratings have them just inside the Top 40. The KenPom ratings, which I think are very useful, agree with me. Cuonzo Martin’s team really pulled a “rabbit out of the hat” on Saturday, coming back from a late 12-point deficit to beat TCU in overtime, 102-98. They never came close to covering the 10-point spread though. 

This is the first of two big games in Columbia this week as Mizzou will also host Alabama on Saturday. Might they actually look past UK then? Bottom line is I expect the Tigers to start dropping some games. They are 2-6 ATS after allowing 80+ points and 0-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Kentucky is 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The last time we saw Coach Cal, his team was leading at Alabama with less than five minutes remaining. They imploded down the stretch and failed to cover the 7-point spread, but I think they get the money here. Take the points. 8* Kentucky

8* East Carolina (6:00 ET): #5 Houston has undoubtedly been red hot as of late. They went 8-0 in January with the last six wins all coming by 17 points or greater. They’ve covered four straight times. Sunday saw them decimate SMU, 70-48, as a 9.5-point home favorite. You’ll notice that 17-point benchmark is basically what the oddsmakers are looking for tonight as the Cougars, now ranked #5 in the country, travel to face East Carolina. As good a team as this is, it’s obviously not easy to keep winning games by such a large margin. So I’ll be taking the points in this one. 

East Carolina’s January went a lot differently than Houston’s. The Pirates were 0-5 SU/ATS last month while having to deal with a two-week pause due to COVID. Their last win came all the way back on December 22nd against Tulane. Conference play has gone much differently than non-conference play did for ECU. While they’ve beaten all six non-conf opponents this year, they are just 1-6 SU vs. the rest of the American. However, it should be pointed out that four of the five losses in January were by single digits. They were tied 65-65 with Tulsa (only team to beat Houston this year) here on Saturday, only to get caught on the wrong end of a 12-3 run to end the game. 

It’s not as if I expect East Carolina to win this game. But I do think they’ll keep it closer than what the oddsmakers are thinking. The Pirates are a solid 6-3 SU at home this season with just one bad loss (to Memphis). Houston doesn’t play for another week after this game, so they may be looking forward to the break and not be fully focused. They are probably due for an “off-game” anyway. They are 0-5 ATS the L5 times they’ve been off a game where they allowed less than 50 points. East Carolina has covered five straight home games vs. teams with a winning road record. 8* East Carolina

10* Indiana (9:00 ET): Illinois is back where it “belongs,” ranked #12 in the country. Truthfully, my power ratings say they should be ranked even higher. But tonight they happen to be facing a team that I feel is also underrated by the pollsters, that being Indiana. With a 9-7 SU record, IU isn’t “wowing” anyone right now. But consider that they will come into this game well-rested (haven’t played in over a week!) and also won by 12 at Iowa last month. That’s more impressive than the Fighting Illini beating the Hawkeyes by just five points at home last Friday. 

You can probably guess the reason for Indiana’s sabbatical from the court. They were supposed to face #4 Michigan on Saturday, but the Wolverines had COVID issues. Avoiding a trip to face a top four opponent before playing this game is a big break for the Hoosiers. Now they’ve actually lost their last two games here in Bloomington (both as favorites), but tonight marks the 1st time they’ve been a home dog all season. They’ve gone 4-1 ATS when getting points on the road, so you’ve gotta like their chances of pulling this one out, even if Galloway and Franklin can’t go. 

This is a revenge game as well. The Hoosiers lost in Champaign-Urbana back on December 26th by a score of 69-60. That was actually the one time they failed to cover when getting points (were +6.5). They shot poorly and were outrebounded 40-28. Generally, neither shooting nor rebounding have been problems for the Hoosiers. That win over Iowa on Friday was Illinois’ first over a team currently in the Top 25. Indiana may not be ranked, but my power ratings call them a top 25 team in the country. Take the points. 10* Indiana

10* Under Clippers/Nets (7:35 ET): With three of the top stars in the game (Durant, Irving, Harden), it certainly appears as if Brooklyn is going to test how far the oddsmakers are willing to go when it comes to setting O/U lines. Saturday vs. Washington, the number was 244, as high an O/U line as you’ll see. Still, the game went Over by more than 50 points as the Nets actually lost to the Wizards 149-147! I was happy with the result having taken the Wizards +7. Now I’m going to be even more daring. 

The Over is 15-1 in Brooklyn’s last 16 games. That’s pretty incredible, especially when you consider how high the O/U lines have been. Saturday’s was the highest yet. I suppose we’ll continue to see numbers north of 240, but to me this number is just too large. The Clippers are a lot better than the Wizards in all aspects of the game, but especially when it comes to playing defense. They allow just 106.7 PPG. Another key is tempo. The Clips play at the second slowest pace in the league, meaning only one team (New York) averages fewer possessions per game. 

Now the Clippers just faced the Knicks and the game ended up being a 129-115 final. So much for pace there. But the total was just 210, a far cry from what it is here. There’s a chance this will go off as the highest O/U line of the season to date in the entire NBA and that’s even with the number being bet down a few points since it opened. Nets’ games do average 239.9 total PPG this season, but that’s still below this number. Clippers’ games average “just” 221.2. The Under is 2-0 this season in Clippers’ games where the total is 230 or higher. 10* Under Clippers/Nets

8* Texas (7:00 ET): If there ever was a time for #2 Baylor (16-0 SU) to drop a game, it would be here in Austin. The Bears just played a tough opponent (Auburn) Saturday night while Texas had the weekend off. The Longhorns were going to face Kentucky, but COVID took care of that matchup (issue was obviously on the UK side). So now the Longhorns come in well-rested for their biggest game of the season and you know motivation will be through the roof. They are 4-1 SU/ATS as dogs this season. 

Texas is just seven points away from being unbeaten itself. That’s the total number of points their three losses have been by with none of the margins being greater than four. The last time they took the court was exactly one week ago and they fell 80-79 to red-hot Oklahoma here in Austin. That they were able to almost win despite not having HC Shaka Smart, two starters and one key reserve (all out due to COVID) was pretty impressive. For the final possession, the Longhorns had just five scholarship players available as three more guys fouled out during the course of the game! Everyone, including Smart, is expected to be back tonight. 

Yes, I’m fully aware of how good Baylor is. But Texas is a top 10 team playing at home. Not only were there extenuating factors working against them in the loss to OU, but in a 79-77 loss to Texas Tech on 1/13, they blew a 10-point halftime lead. They led that game most of the way. It’s pretty shocking that all three of the Longhorns losses have occurred at home, but again those were all by razor thin margins and to teams ranked in the Top 15. Tonight is the most points they’ll get in any game all season. It’s a good value. They are rested. They easily could be undefeated. They can beat Baylor. Take the points. 8* Texas

8* Butler (5:00 ET): Both Butler and Marquette have been pretty cold of late. Butler has lost its last two games and four of its last six. Marquette has lost three in a row and seven of 10 . Even worse is that the Golden Eagles are 1-9 ATS in those 10 games and 0-4 the L4. So laying points with them right now seems like a BAD idea. They are just 3-7 ATS as chalk this season.

Butler couldn’t hit water from a boat in their last game as they shot just 34.3% against Xavier, 68-55 loss as two-point favorites. The Bulldogs REALLY struggled from behind the three-point arc where they missed 20 of 25 attempts. That’s well below their season average, obviously. Three things to keep in mind here, however. One is they’re going to shoot better tonight. Two, they own a win over Creighton. Three, Christian David and Bo Hodges are now both playing. Each made their season debut vs. Xavier and while it didn’t help there, there’s no denying the Bulldogs are now a better and deeper team. Hodgers is a transfer from East Tennessee State. 

Marquette is down a player, Justin Lewis, as he injured his ankle in practice Saturday. While “just” a reserve, Lewis is a key frontcourt contributor. Without Lewis, the Golden Eagles lost by two to St. John’s on Sunday. But the game was really not that close as they trailed by 15 at halftime. Butler has had one extra day off (compared to Marquette) between games and will certainly be motivated to end an 0-4 ATS run in this rivalry. Take the points. 8* Butler

10* Portland (8:05 ET): Milwaukee can still claim the East’s best point differential and efficiency rating, but they’ve lost B2B games and done so to vastly inferior opposition. As a result, they’re now third in the conference standings. Friday brought a narrow defeat at the hands of New Orleans then without rest they fell in Charlotte on Saturday. Do I think the Bucks are likely to win here at home tonight? Yes, but the number is clearly inflated based on that expectation (which I’m sure most people share) and don’t think they’ll cover the spread. Take the points.

Portland is coming off a 123-122 win in Chicago where Damian Lillard scored a season-high 44 points, the last three of which came on a game-winning three-pointer. It was Lillard’s second 40+ point effort of the season and he’s averaging 34 over the team’s last eight games. The Blazers obviously need that kind of production as they’ve been playing without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. But players like Gary Trent Jr have been stepping up. Trent had 18 against the Bulls and is averaging 21 the L3 games. 

The Blazers are just 3-3 SU their L6 games, however, two of the three losses were by just three points each. It’s rare that you can get them plus this many points. They’ve actually been better offensively on the road this season as they’re averaging 118.2 PPG. Certainly defense has been an issue, but you could say the same for Milwaukee, who has given up 113+ in five of the last six games including 131 to New Orleans and 126 to Charlotte. The Bucks are only 1-4 ATS vs. Western Conference teams this season and have lost three of those games outright. 10* Portland

10* Central Florida (8:00 ET): Memphis seems to have gone from “underachieving” to “a little bit overrated” in a hurry. That’s due to a 4-game ATS win streak, but I think it’s important to remember what preceded that, a 7-game ATS LOSING streak. Anfernee Hardaway’s team has had a LOT of close calls this season, the most recent coming last week at SMU where they lost 67-65 (but did cover as 4-point dogs). This is the most points the Tigers have had to lay in over a month and I think the spread is too high. 

UCF is off its own narrow defeat, theirs coming Saturday at Wichita State by a score of 93-88. As you may have guessed from the final score, that game went to overtime. It was the sixth loss in the last seven games for the Golden Knights, who certainly didn’t help themselves by turning it over 22 times against the Shockers. It was a game they led at halftime and just the second time all year they lost when scoring at least 61 points. The last two games have seen dramatic improvement on the offensive end for UCF and I’m expecting a better showing than the oddsmakers are for tonight’s game. 

A couple weeks ago, I laid a short number with Memphis here at home and they blew out Wichita State 72-52. But I’ve seen too many close games from the Tigers to want to lay this many points. Seven of their last nine games have been decided by seven points or less. Four of those have been SU losses. I know UCF is a bit “offensively challenged,” but they’ve topped 70 in regulation each of the L2 games. They led Wichita State by eight with less than four minutes to go on Saturday. Meanwhile, Memphis trailed SMU by as many as 16 on Thursday. 10* Central Florida

8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): It has NOT been a good run for Miami of late as they’ve dropped four in a row - both SU and ATS. Short-handed, they lost 66-54 at Wake Forest on Saturday, which was the second time in the last three games they lost as a favorite. Things will not be any easier tonight when they host a suddenly surging Duke team that’s won B2B games. But because the Blue Devils are among the most “public sides” in the sport, we’re able to get a good number in this nationally televised contest and I’m taking the points as this number has simply grown too large. 

Duke’s B2B wins have come against Georgia Tech and Clemson. Against the former, they were tied with just 2:33 remaining before pulling away via the charity stripe. The Clemson win on Saturday may have been the best the Blue Devils have looked all season. They won 79-53 after jumping out to a big lead and never looking back. But both of these recent wins were in Durham. The Blue Devils still have zero wins this season against the Top 25 and are 1-3 SU on the road. I think the idea of them being ranked is somewhat ludicrous. 

Yes, Miami is really short-handed right now and has had horrible luck against Duke in recent years. But I expect Jim Larranaga’s team to be “up” for this one. I mentioned earlier that the Hurricanes have lost four straight. Well, three of those losses were on the road. Duke is still a young team and I’ve been on the record calling them “overrated” even before the loss to Michigan State back in November. I just don’t think this should be a double digit spread. 8* Miami FL

8* Georgia Tech (2:00 ET): Louisville is ranked #25 in the country as of this writing, but the Cardinals are likely to drop out of the new poll (when it comes out later today) due to losing 54-50 at Clemson last week. That was the third loss they’ve suffered over the course of the previous four games, a stretch which includes their lone home loss of 2020-21, 78-65 at the hands of Florida State. They did defeat Duke here last Saturday, but by just five points. That’s one of three Cardinals’ wins by five points or less since Christmas, the difference between a 6-3 record in their L9 games and a much more mediocre mark. 

Georgia Tech just beat Florida State, albeit in Atlanta, 76-65 on Saturday. That was the Yellow Jackets’ sixth win in the last eight games and something to keep in mind is that both losses are games they easily could have won. GT led Virginia by as many as 11 points on 1/23 before losing 64-62 in overtime. The next game saw them in front of Duke late, but they lost that one (also on the road), 75-68. Had the Jackets held on in either game, we might be talking about them replacing L’ville in the Top 25 today. Beating a team like Florida State is not easy and GT did it by holding the Seminoles to their lowest point total of the season. 

The Yellow Jackets also come in averaging 77.7 PPG themselves. They shot 50% from the field in the second half Saturday. Alongside FSU, Georgia Tech is top two in the ACC in both three-point shooting and overall field goal percentage. Considering that L’ville only made 31.6% of its shot attempts against Clemson, you’ve got to like the Yellow Jackets’ chances defensively in this one, especially considering they just held the ACC’s #1 scoring team to almost 15 pts below its season average. Georgia Tech is 5-2 ATS as a dog this season, so I’ll gladly take the points here. 8* Ga Tech

10* Washington (7:00 ET): The Wizards have not won since returning to the court seven days ago. They didn’t play for nearly two weeks and are now 0-4 since returning, both SU and ATS. Tonight will not be an easy game as they face the Nets, who of course now have James Harden among their ranks. But we’re getting a big number on the home team as Brooklyn figures to be one of the more overvalued (and public) sides moving forward. I’m taking the points here as the Wizards actually beat the Nets earlier this month.

That win was in Brooklyn, before the Harden trade, on January 3rd. The Wizards won 123-122 as a seven-point dog. You can see we’re now getting more points with the Wiz AT HOME than they were getting on the road. That’s the Harden factor. Also, despite resting Kevin Durant, the Nets just put up 147 points (franchise record in regulation) on Friday, their 4th straight win. However, you should be aware that the Nets are just 2-2 SU this season following a game where they scored 130 or more points. 

Washington is starting to get players back from the COVID list, so expect them to play better. Bradley Beal currently leads the NBA in scoring with 34.7 PPG. He scored a season-low 26 in Friday’s loss to the Hawks and the team shot a season-worst 36.5%. Six technical fouls by the Wizards didn’t help their cause in that game either. Expect better shooting from Beal and company tonight though. When they beat Brooklyn, they only shot 41% from the field. They’ll top that number tonight. The Nets are only 3-6 ATS vs. teams that have losing records. 10* Washington

10* Illinois State (3:00 ET): There are three unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. You’re more than likely well aware of two of them, Gonzaga and Baylor, as those are the top two ranked teams in the country. But the other is Drake, a team whose season was interrupted for a full three weeks because of COVID-19. The Bulldogs are 15-0 after returning to the court earlier this week and winning a couple close games at Missouri State. Perhaps most impressive of all is that they are also 13-0 ATS this season!

However, I personally don’t think Drake is even the best team in the Missouri Valley. (That would be Loyola IL, who they will face in a couple of weeks). When they returned to the court Tuesday (following a 22-day layoff), the Bulldogs looked a little shaky as they trailed Missouri State by 15 at halftime and it certainly appeared their unbeaten run was headed for its demise. But they rallied to win there (outscored Missouri State 42-20 in 2H) and then won again by five the following night. Today marks the largest spread for any Drake game this season, with the exception of Chicago State, who was arguably the worst team in all of College Basketball before cancelling its season. 

Illinois State should be getting a lot more respect from the oddsmakers than this. While only 5-10 SU on the year, most of the Redbirds’ losses have been close, the exceptions being the pair against Loyola. They just lost two at home to Valparaiso, both of which saw them come in as the slight favorite. The second of those two games saw them ahead late, but they were outscored 7-2 in the final 99 seconds and lost 70-66. It certainly didn’t help that their second leading scorer (Josiah Strong) scored only two points the entire game. While Drake is likely to win this game straight up and thus remain unbeaten, their ATS win streak is certainly long overdue to end. 10* Illinois State

10* Detroit (10:05 ET): The Pistons are by no means a good team, but they did just upset the Lakers on Thursday night, 107-92 as seven-point home underdogs. That was their second big upset in the last three games as they also beat the 76ers at home, 119-104 as 4.5-point dogs. They’ve covered the spread in three of the last four games and a very respectable 10-6 ATS when getting points this season. Tonight they are at Golden State as they look to pull off B2B wins against the last two Western Conference champions. 

I think we all expected a Warriors bounce back this season after last year’s injury-riddled disaster. However, I think it’s also pretty clear the Dubs are never going to ascend back to the heights of their championship squads. They were blown out Thursday night in Phoenix, 114-93, as for the fifth time this season they failed to produce a three-game win streak. The previous two games were both here at home vs. Minnesota and while they covered each time, the Warriors are still only 4-3 ATS as favorites this season. 

Detroit has just one road win this year and it came against an injury-riddled Heat team. But surprisingly, their scoring average jumps away from home. Now so does the number of points they allow per game, but if they can hold the Lakers to just 92 (as they did Thursday), then I think they can get the job done defensively tonight. This is a revenge spot for a 10-point loss back on December 29th when the Pistons were playing the second night of a back to back. They’re rested this time and I’ll take the points. 10* Detroit

10* Murray State (8:30 ET): With Winthrop’s loss last night, there is now only one team in College Basketball that is 10-0 or better in conference play. That would be Belmont. The Bruins are 11-0 vs. the rest of the Ohio Valley, but had a very close call Thursday at Austin Peay, whom they defeated only by an 81-76 margin. In a game with 26 lead changes and 12 ties, I shouldn’t have had to sweat the cover with Austin Peay, but that’s what ended up happening. Still, I did get the ATS win and I’m thinking tonight will be an outright win on Murray State, who is MUCH better than their 7-7 overall record. 

This will be only the third time Belmont has had to play B2B road games. They did not cover in either of the first two instances. Those games were against Jacksonville State (won by 7) and Evansville (won by 9). While it’s a much shorter number here, that’s because Murray State is 6-2 at home this season and averaging 88.6 PPG. They are one of the few teams in the OVC that I feel can “trade buckets” with the Bruins. Murray State’s two home losses are by a combined eight points. The Racers come into this evening off a very strong effort, a 73-53 blowout of Tennessee Tech, which was here in Murray. 

This is a revenge game for Murray State as they lost down in Nashville 68-55 back on December 30th. They only trailed by one at halftime, holding Belmont to a season-low 26 first half points. The difference in that game was second chance points and turnovers. I expect Murray State to play a “cleaner” game now that they’re at home. They shoot a blistering 54.3% here and also defend the 3-point line very well (opponents hitting just 27.4% for the year). Take the points, but I’m expecting the outright upset. 10* Murray State

8* Utah (2:30 ET): I certainly respect Colorado. In fact, my own power ratings say this should be a Top 25 team. I took them the first time they faced Utah and while that ended up being a 65-58 victory on January 11th, it was not easy for the Buffaloes. They trailed by 10 at the half before storming back for their first win in Salt Lake City since the 2011-12 season. Six made free throws in the final minute ensured they’d cover that day (as short 2.5-pt favorites), but covering this larger spread at home may prove more problematic.

The Buffaloes have now won six of their last seven to get to 13-4 SU overall, including 7-3 in Pac 12 play. I look at this league as a four-team race with them, UCLA, USC and Oregon. But as much as I admire what’s going on in Boulder right now, the team has been “playing with fire” a bit. The earlier game vs. Utah isn’t the only time they’ve come from behind after being down big at halftime. In last week’s 70-59 win at Washington State, they trailed by as many as 18 points. Another win over Wazzu (on Wednesday) saw them catch a break as the Cougars were playing without their leading scorer. 

Colorado’s only loss in the L7 games came as a sizable favorite (-14.5) against (arguably) the worst team in the Pac 12, Washington. So it would be foolish to say Utah doesn’t have a chance to win this game straight up. After all, they led Colorado by double digits in the first meeting. That was actually the second consecutive game where the Utes blew a DD halftime lead and lost. Overall, they’ve dropped six of eight, but have had the halftime lead in four of those six losses, three times by double digits! They only lost by two at UCLA as well. I see the Utes being VERY motivated by the revenge factor here. 8* Utah

10* Hawaii (11:59 PM ET): UC Irvine has been hot of late, winning six straight to get to 7-4 SU on the season. Playing in the Big West, those wins have hardly been against “world-beaters.” The last two wins were against last place Cal Poly and while the defensive numbers from those games look great (just 93 total points allowed on less than 33% shooting), the Mustangs are one of the most offensively challenged teams in the entire country. UC Irvine hasn’t been reliable on the road (1-4 SU) and Honolulu is arguably the toughest trip to make in the conference. I’m taking the points here. 

Hawaii is off a solid 76-53 win at Cal State Fullerton last Saturday. That was revenge for an 83-67 loss the night prior. The Warriors have solid rebounding and play good defense, a combination I certainly like to see when taking a team. They just held CS Fullerton to 4 of 19 shooting from three-point range. That they were able to win so convincingly on the road, despite making just four foul shots, is pretty impressive, The Warriors’ schedule has certainly been impacted by COVID, but they’ve now played six games the last three weeks, so they should be in better “rhythm.” 

Hawaii did lose its last two home games, both to Cal State Bakersfield, so they should be really motivated for a home win tonight. As I mentioned earlier, Cal Irvine has been shaky on the road. This will be just the second away game since X-Mas for them. They’ve averaged just 62.6 points in those five previous road games. Also, tonight marks just the third time in 12 games that the Anteaters have been favored. They’ve definitely overachieved. Hawaii was actually favored in each of its last four games. They are 2-0 ATS as dogs this season. 10* Hawaii

10* Under Nuggets/Spurs (8:35 ET): Denver is looking to complete a perfect road trip tonight in San Antonio. They’ve won their last five games overall, covering the spread every time. This win streak has the Nuggets a solid 4th in the Western Conference standings, one game ahead of the 5th place Spurs, who are off a 110-106 win over Boston that took place here at home on Wednesday night. That was the Spurs’ second straight win and 8th in the last 12 games. Should be a competitive game tonight in the Alamo.

Denver has a very efficient offense, ranking 4th in the league in points per possession. They have to be efficient because they are actually bottom four in pace (# of possessions per game). It was pretty easy Wednesday night against a Heat team that has been hit hard by COVID-19. The Nuggets enjoyed their largest halftime lead of the season (25 points) and held Miami to just 82 pts for the game. While known more as an “offensive team,” the Nuggets have held three of their last four opponents under 42% shooting for the game. With some of the recent Overs, note two of the games went to overtime. 

San Antonio probably isn’t going to shoot 56.1% from the field again like they did Wednesday against Boston. That they shot that well and still ended up with “only” 110 points is a little telling about the kind of game the Spurs wish to play. There was a stretch vs. Boston (end of 1st half) where they made 10 consecutive shots, including two layups in the last four seconds before halftime. Again, don’t see that happening again. Nor do I see the Spurs turning it over as much as they did (19 times) vs. the Celtics. Look for this to be a game with few possessions and solid defense. 10* Under Nuggets/Spurs

8* Florida International (6:00 ET): FIU started the season 8-3, but all of a sudden has lost five in a row - both SU and ATS. They’ve been without their second leading scorer, Radshad Davis (13.3 PPG), for the last three games. That partially explains the recent slide, but the real culprit has been the Panthers’ complete lack of defense as they’ve allowed 79 or more points in each of the L4 games. The Charlotte team they’ll face tonight is offensively challenged, a good sign, and I’m hopeful Davis will return. Even if he doesn’t, still take the points as this number is way too high. 

Charlotte is a team I’ve played against previously. In fact, it was exactly two weeks ago when they hosted UAB. The 49ers ended up losing that game in humiliating fashion, 61-37, as 2-point home underdogs. They’ve won two of three since then, avenging the UAB defeat and beating FAU last Saturday 74-71. However, this is a team that should feel pretty lucky to be .500 (7-7 SU) on the season. Four of its wins have been by four points or less. They’ve lost to a non-DI opponent (Belmont Abbey) and have played three overtime games this month. 

I understand that FIU has been struggling of late, but this line should not be so high. These teams’ play at vastly different tempos with FIU ranking 20th in number of possessions per game while Charlotte is 328th. That’s something to watch as this game unfolds. If FIU can push the tempo, then things will go in their favor. I don’t think they are as bad as they’ve looked these L5 games and with Charlotte owning just three wins by more than four points this year, who would want to lay points with them? They are, in fact, 1-4 ATS as chalk this season. Take the points. 8* Florida International

8* New Mexico (11:00 ET): Fresno State is a team I’ve targeted previously and as a favorite, they become a really attractive fade. The last time they took the court was eight days ago vs. Boise State. I took Boise State -14.5 and that was a winning bet despite the fact Fresno State had the halftime lead. (The game ended up 73-51). They were supposed to play Boise State again on Friday, but that game got postponed. While the Bulldogs have been better at home this year, there’s a reason for that (weak opponents). I don’t think you can trust this team laying this many points (unless they’re playing San Jose State). 

Four of Fresno State’s five wins this season have come against either non-DI teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific) or San Jose State (worst team in the MWC). They swept two home games against San Jose State, covering as 14-point favorites both times. Since then, they’ve lost three in a row, all on the road. Given a 3-6 ATS record in conference play, I just don’t know why you’d want to lay points with this team right now. 

Now truthfully New Mexico hasn’t been very good either as they are actually tied for last in the Mountain West after splitting with San Jose State last weekend. They lost the second game as 9.5-point favorites, a result they will desperately want to atone for here. Remember that the Lobos haven’t been allowed to play any actual home games this season. Being on the road again won’t bother them. Take the points. 8* New Mexico

10* Austin Peay (9:00 ET): There are only two teams in the country that are 10-0 or better in conference play and one of them is Belmont in the Ohio Valley (the other is Winthrop in the Big South). Belmont has won 13 in a row overall since tasting its lone defeat this season, which was a bit of a shocker as they were 17.5-point favorites at home over Samford when they fell 96-83 on December 5th. Coming off a dominating win over SIU Edwardsville, the Bruins now head to Austin Peay for what will be one of their toughest games during the entire OVC slate.

Austin Peay may have been caught “looking ahead” to this one as they were upset by Jacksonville State on Saturday, 76-70 as a four-point favorite. They ended the game on the wrong end of a 9-0 run. Though they shot the ball well (52.9%), for a second straight game their defense was shockingly poor. They allowed Jacksonville State to shoot 63.3% from the field, an even higher percentage than what Tennessee Tech (56.1%) last Thursday. The Governors better shore that defense up quickly as they are now facing a team that just scored 114 points in its last game.

My view is that Austin Peay is ready for this one and will be much better defensively. Certainly they can’t be any worse than they were in the last two games. Austin Peay’s last seven games have all been decided by nine points or less with the three losses all coming by six points or less. So this is a team that doesn’t get blown out very often. They are 7-1 straight up when playing with three or more days rest and a perfect 4-0 SU off a loss. Belmont has been really impressive, but this is their toughest test to date. Take the points. 10* Austin Peay

10* Houston (7:30 ET): Two teams trending in opposite directions here. Houston, who has moved on from James Harden, has now won a season-high three in a row. Their new starting backcourt of Wall and Oladipo led the way in Tuesday’s 107-88 win against Washington, combining for 44 points. Having outscored the opposition this year, the Rockets have outperformed their 7-9 SU record and should continue winning tonight as they host a wounded Portland team that has lost three in a row ATS. 

The Blazers’ suffered their third straight ATS defeat on Monday when they lost outright at home to Oklahoma City by a score of 125-122. It was their third SU loss in the last five games, all of which were played at home. Tonight is the beginning of a six-game road trip and you’ve got to be concerned about their prospects considering Nurkic and McCollum are both out long-term while Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr (COVID) are listed as questionable for tonight’s game. 

Portland is very much the opposite of Houston as they’ve underperformed their 9-7 SU record by being outscored this year. They should feel rather fortunate to be tied for 5th in the Western Conference right now, but I don’t see them maintaining that position for very long, in light of the injuries. This team is really bad defensively (29th in efficiency) while Houston is a surprising 4th in that category. This is a revenge game for the Rockets, who were beaten by two up in Portland the day after X-Mas (blew a 10-point halftime lead). 10* Houston

8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns are off a couple of very frustrating home losses to Denver over the weekend. Both games went to overtime. One went to double OT. The first saw the Suns blow a double-digit lead in the second half. Losing Devin Booker to an injury was critical down the stretch. But despite not having their leading scorer, Phoenix still competed the next night, taking the Nuggets to two overtimes before wilting late. Booker has been ruled out again tonight, but I still see the home team having enough to win.

Oklahoma City was projected by many to be the worst team in the Western Conference this year. But they’ve been better than expected, going a respectable 7-9 SU the first 16 games. They just won in Portland Monday night, 127-125 as 4.5-point dogs. That was thanks to jumping out to an early lead (led by 10 at end of 1Q). But before that win, the Thunder had dropped three straight. They also have the league’s third worst point differential entering tonight. Obviously, I’m not expecting a repeat of Monday night here.

Phoenix may be without Booker, but OKC will probably be without Al Horford and George Hill again. The Suns have enjoyed three full days off to get ready for this one, which should be an easy win. I am projecting the Suns to be a top six team in the West this year. Even though they’ve been better than expected, I still see the Thunder finishing near the bottom of the standings. Chris Paul should be motivated facing his former team. 8* Phoenix

8* Dallas (9:05 ET): While it may seem “dangerous” to go against a Jazz team that’s 9-0 SU/ATS its L9 games, this is the second night of a back to back for them. If there ever was a time for them to “slip up,” it would be here against a Mavs team that has underachieved the last two weeks, but is now healthy. I can’t deny just how impressive Utah has been during its nine-game win streak, out-scoring teams by 15.7 PPG. But they’ve been facing a lot of bad teams, like the Knicks last night. It’s time to “sell-high.” 

Coming into the year, the Mavs were a team I projected to finish in the top four of the Western Conference. As of right now, their record is just 8-9 SU and they’ve lost two in a row. But they’ve been short-handed for about three weeks, missing Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Dwight Powell due to COVID-19. All three traveled with the team to Salt Lake City and have been upgraded to probable. Even if not all of them play, remember we took the Mavs to win in San Antonio, which they did, last Friday. 

Utah’s 108-94 win over New York last night was not as easy as it looks from the final score. The Jazz trailed by 15 in the first half before completely shutting the Knicks offense down after halftime. They actually still trailed by one heading into the 4Q but allowed just 13 points over the final 12 minutes. That cost me a big Over play, which I’m not happy about. New York made only 12 field goals the entire second half! That won’t happen with Dallas, who should be happy to get some of its key players back. Before the three players in question left the lineup, this team was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Dallas

8* Milwaukee (7:30 ET): This rematch of the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals is being played in Orlando as are all Toronto “home games” this season. The Raptors have actually fared well in their new digs (5-2 SU), especially when compared to their poor 2-7 road record. But a matchup with the team I still consider the “beast of the East” is unlikely to go well for the home team as they have been playing short-handed (no Pascal Siakam). The Raptors lost 129-114 at Indiana their last time out. 

Though their 10-6 SU record is hardly dominant, the Bucks continue to boast the East’s best point differential and net efficiency rating. Make no mistake about it, this is the best team in the league outside of the Lakers. After losing B2B games for the first time all season, the Bucks went out and handled their business Sunday with a 129-115 win over a good Atlanta team. They continue to pace the league in offensive efficiency and have the league’s highest scoring average as well at 120.1 PPG. 

The big key here is that Toronto has not fared well when facing teams with winning records. They are just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in those games this season. This will be their third game in four nights (after a hard-fought split in Indiana) while the Bucks have been off for two days. I just don’t see any way the Bucks lose tonight and the number isn’t very big. Lay it. 8* Milwaukee

10* Notre Dame (7:00 ET): Virginia Tech already was a team I felt didn’t deserve to be ranked in the Top 25, now they’ve had to suspend arguably their best player for the foreseeable future. So the Hokies are a very logical fade Wednesday night when they travel to South Bend and face Notre Dame. They just lost by 18 in Syracuse Saturday and that was with starting guard Tyrece Radford (the suspended player in question) in the lineup. This will be their third straight game on the road as well. 

Notre Dame got me on Sunday by going to Coral Gables and beating Miami 73-59. They played a somewhat “sloppy” game (16 turnovers), but shot the ball very well and dominated the Hurricanes on the glass. The Fighting Irish finished the game at 53.8% from the field, including 10 of 18 on three-pointers. They also held a 37-28 rebounding advantage. That was a pretty impressive ACC road win and the Irish’s second win in a row overall. They defeated Boston College 80-70 here at home in their previous game.

It can’t be understated what losing Radford means to Va Tech. He is second on the team in both scoring and rebounding and was the “best player on the court” (Coach K’s words) when the Hokies beat Duke earlier this month. My power ratings are quite bearish on Va Tech, still having them outside the Top 40. They’ve lost two of their three “true” road games thus far. This is a revenge game for ND who lost by 14 down in Blacksburg 17 days ago on a bad shooting night. At home, things will be different. 10* Notre Dame

8* Rhode Island (5:00 ET): After suffering a disappointing loss at Duquesne last Wednesday, Rhode Island came up with a less than inspiring effort Saturday against lowly Fordham. They managed to win, 52-42, but never came close to covering the 17-point spread. That performance was especially disappointing me as I laid the point. When you give up only 42 points at home, that should be an ATS win, no matter how large the spread. 

La Salle is off a shocking win at Richmond Saturday where they came in as 16.5-point underdogs. The Explorers pulled the upset in large part because they shot 57.1% from the field. That was the second game in a row they shot that exact percentage from the field. One would figure they are due to “cool off.” Facing an opponent that just allowed only 42 points in its last game seems like the “right time.”

While LaSalle certainly isn’t as inept as Fordham offensively, URI can certainly turn in another top-notch defensive effort here. The Rams have held two of their last three opponents under 33% shooting. Something to keep in mind is that earlier this month La Salle shot just 28.1% from the floor in an ugly loss to George Mason. So they can be wildly inconsistent. Rhode Island is 11-4 SU, 11-3-1 ATS their L15 visits here. 8* Rhode Island

10* Over Knicks/Jazz (9:05 ET): The Knicks, on average, have produced the LOWEST scoring games in the league this season. The good news is that they are allowing the fewest number of points per game in the league at 103.6. The bad news is their own scoring average of 101.9 is also - by far - a league low. That combined game scoring average of 205.5 is a full 7.6 PPG lower than the next lowest team (Cleveland). I guess it shouldn’t be surprising then that the Under is 12-6 in all Knicks games this season. 

Utah has won eight in a row, the longest win streak that the league has seen so far in 2020-21. The Jazz have also covered the spread in all eight wins, so this is a team playing very well right now. They’ve clearly established themselves as the third best team in the West, behind only the two hailing from LA. In the last two games, they’ve scored 129 and 127 points. All but one of those eight consecutive victories have come by double digits. Shockingly, the Knicks are the last team to defeat Utah, having done so on January 6th at MSG by a score of 112-100. They were eight-point home dogs. 

Despite the score of the first meeting and the Knicks in general, I see tonight’s game “sneaking Over” the total. Utah is at home where they are averaging a very solid 114.6 PPG. They only shot 44% for the game on Jan 6 and missed 30 of 44 three-point attempts. That won’t happen again here. It is worth mentioning that despite only losing by three on Saturday to Portland, the Knicks trailed by as many as 25. They also trailed Utah by 18 before coming back to win. This is a really low total and while it matches the total # of points scored in the first meeting, it’s difficult to imagine there won’t be more points scored this time around. 10* Over Knicks/Jazz

10* Missouri (9:00 ET): A little surprised my power rankings are now saying Mizzou is a bit underrated here after earlier in the year, they (the power rankings) seemed to be lower on the Tigers than the market was. Do I think they are the #12 ranked team in the country (as they are in the latest AP/Coaches Polls)? No. But they are better than Tuesday’s opponent, Auburn, a team that has come on strong of late (5-0 ATS L5) but still doesn’t even crack the top 65 of my power rankings. Take the points here. 

Missouri has won and covered three straight, the latest win being very impressive as they went to Knoxville and beat Tennessee 73-64 as a 6.5-point underdog. That’s why they moved up to #12 in the polls. The Tigers have lost just twice all season, one of those being to Tennessee, so that’s now been avenged. The last three wins have been by a total of 36 points. Missouri shot very well in the 1H against Tennessee and played excellent defense throughout, holding the Vols to 35 percent in the 2H and forcing 18 turnovers. 

Auburn just hung 109 points on South Carolina Saturday, which is probably the reason they come in favored over a ranked team. Admittedly, the Tigers have looked much better since #1 recruit Sharife Cooper became eligible. Him playing coincides with the team’s 5-0 ATS run, but they are just 3-2 straight up in those games. They were actually the underdogs in Columbia on Saturday. This will be just the third time they’ve been favored in SEC play (if the line holds). Missouri has won four of the six games they’ve been an underdog. 10* Missouri

8* Western Michigan (6:00 ET): Western Michigan isn’t very good, but this number has grown far too high vs. Ohio Tuesday night. The last time the Bobcats were favored by double digits was against the worst team in the MAC (Northern Illinois) and they didn’t come close to covering as they won by just three points. While a solid 4-2 this month, the Bobcats have won just once by more than 10 points and I don’t think they’ll do that here as the team is only 8-6 SU on the year and 1-4 ATS off a SU win.

WMU has lost five in a row, four of them at home. While it sounds bad, be aware that the Broncos’ last four opponents are who I’d rate the top four teams in the conference. During the five-game losing skid, WMU has led or been tied at the half in three of them. That includes Saturday vs, Akron, whom they led 38-31 at the break. Eventually, this team is going to have a breakthrough. They are 2-0 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points this season. 

Ohio was dreadful from three-point range Saturday vs. Ball State, making only 5 of 22, but they compensated for it by taking 35 free throw attempts, which was a lot more than the 19 Ball State took. That advantage at the charity stripe is how the Bobcats won by eight. The game before, OU scored a season-low 26 pts in the 1H (at home) in a game they basically trailed wire-to-wire vs. Kent State. Just not convinced that this is a squad that belongs in this price range. In two of the last four games, the Bobcats have allowed 57% (or higher!) shooting. 8* Western Michigan

10* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Both teams could very well be short-handed coming into this one. Well, we know Iowa State will. The Cyclones have been hit hard by COVID-19 with their last four games, three of which were to be against Top 25 opponents, all postponed. They haven’t played since Jan 9th when they got their doors blown off by Texas Tech, 91-64, which left them at 2-7 overall and 0-5 vs. the Big 12. I faded ISU in that Texas Tech game and will do so again now as they’re in even worse shape. 

All Iowa State team activities have been paused for the L10 days, creating quite the challenging situation for HC Steve Prohm. Prohm has said the Cyclones will be without several players for tonight and that all four of his walk-ons will need to be “ready to play.” That doesn’t sound promising. This was already looking like a rough season in Ames and now the team has gone 10 days without a full practice. Because of protocols, no more than two players have been able to practice together at a time and players aren’t even allowed to see one another, unless they are roommates. 

Oklahoma State had a key absence Saturday as the Big 12’s leading scorer and presumed #1 NBA Draft pick Cade Cunningham did not suit up. But despite missing their best player, the Cowboys actually led #1 Baylor at the half! Cunningham was cleared for Saturday (COVID), but was not ready to play according to the coaching staff. His status for tonight remains unknown, but the bottom line here is that the Pokes are the much better team here. They’ve not only hung tough with the likes of Baylor, Texas & West Virginia, but also beaten Texas Tech and Kansas. If Cunningham does play, it’ll be a bonus as I don’t think this game will be close at all. 10* Oklahoma State

8* Under Sixers/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just played on Saturday and it was Philadelphia picking up a 114-110 win here in the Motor City. They did not cover the spread (were -8.5), yet will certainly take the SU win as it improved their overall record to 12-5 (#1 in the East). The Sixers have won three straight as well as five of the last six. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you’ve got the Pistons, who are a league-worst 3-13 SU. That’s not a shock (were projected to finish last in the East prior to the start of the year) and they’ve now lost their last four games.

Things were a bit higher-scoring than expected on Saturday as the teams combined to take 68 free throws and the Pistons made 14 three-pointers. Both numbers are certainly atypical. On average, these teams combine to average just 49 FT’s per game. The Pistons do actually average 13 three-point makes per game, but it was the percentage (42.8%) that was high on Saturday. Detroit comes into tonight shooting just 40.2% from the field (on all attempts) at home.

Philly has a top three defensive efficiency rating in the league, so they shouldn’t have much difficulty slowing down a Pistons team that is averaging only 105.6 PPG at home. Detroit was widely expected to be one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season and that’s “bearing fruit.” They have an effective field goal percentage below 50% on the year, one of only three teams that can say that. Meanwhile, the Sixers average only 105.7 PPG on the road, so this shapes up to be a low-scoring game. Joel Embiid, who had 33 points Saturday, is listed as questionable to play. 8* Under Sixers/Pistons

10* Miami FL (6:00 ET): The Hurricanes are off a terrible 83-57 loss at Syracuse from earlier in the week. Even though that was their 7th loss in 10 games, “The U” is certainly due for better results as it has fallen by five points or less in five of those seven defeats. Look for them to get back on track Sunday vs. the Fighting Irish, who are off a rare win, just their second in the last eight games. The Irish have just one road win all year and it was by a single point over struggling Kentucky. Lay the points here. 

Notre Dame has played only four games in January and three of them were on the road. They lost at Virginia, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Then came an 80-70 win over Boston College last Saturday where they were 4.5-point favorites to win. It was a strong first half that propelled them to victory there, but the issue has been that the Irish are just not good defensively. They allow 75.7 PPG on the road. Being an underdog hasn’t been good at all for them as they are 5-33 SU L38 (1-8 this year) and 3-6 ATS this year.

Miami is solid defensively as they allow 64.2 PPG here in Coral Gables and a 39.5 FG%. I’d say what happened Tuesday in Syracuse was an atypical performance, not indicative of what the Canes are all about. As I alluded to earlier, this team has been rather unlucky in close games this season. They have three losses by two points or less. I say they bounce back in a big way here as ND is 0-4 ATS its L4 times playing with 7 or more days rest and dead last in the country at forcing turnovers. 10* Miami FL

8* Rhode Island (2:30 ET): I have faded Fordham before, successfully I might add. It was in home games vs. St. Bonaventure and UMass, back to back, that I stepped in and won. Sunday is another good time to fade. While Rams did cover the spread their last time out, staying within a 18.5-point spot against Davidson (lost 73-58), they still have yet to score 60 points in a game all season and that’s a problem when facing a Rhode Island squad that’s more than capable of hanging a big number here.

URI has had its own issues with the pointspread recently, losing games they were favored to win against UMass and Duquesne. It should be pointed out though that those outright losses came on the road. In fact, they’ve played just one home game since January 3rd. It was a 20-point win over George Mason last Saturday. The Rams come into this game sporting a 4-1 SU home record and I really like the fact they are holding the opposition to just 40.5% shooting for the season. 

Fordham has just one win this season and it came by a single point (55-54) in a shocking upset of Dayton (they were 12-point underdogs). Averaging only 51.0 points per game is really horrendous when you think about it and Rhode Island will not be in a giving mood Sunday having lost two of their last three games outright. URI is 3-0 ATS off a conference loss so far and this just might be the easiest game they’ve got left on the schedule. Note their last two losses were both by just two points, one in overtime and the other they blew a DD lead. 8* Rhode Island

10* Under Warriors/Jazz (9:05 ET): Right now, Utah clearly looks like the best Western Conference team outside the city of Los Angeles. They’ve won seven in a row and furthermore covered the number in all seven wins. Five of those games have seen them shoot 50% or better from the field and that’s in addition to posting a top five defensive efficiency rating for the season. Prior to a 129-118 win against New Orleans Thursday night, they’d held five consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. 

Golden State has obviously improved after last year’s injury-riddled disaster, but they may never again ascend to the championship heights of the five seasons before that. A 119-104 loss to the Knicks on Thursday leaves the Warriors at 8-7 SU and in ninth place in the West. That was a disappointing loss Thursday considering the Dubs were off a very impressive effort the night prior when they defeated San Antonio 121-99 as a 1-point home favorite. That was my 10* Game of the Week! 

The Dubs simply aren’t the same explosive offensive team we became accustomed to seeing under Steve Kerr. They are in the bottom third of offensive efficiency and shooting just 42.7% on the road this season. They connected at only 38.4% vs. the Knicks and that was at home. I mentioned Utah’s recent hot shooting at the top, but the good news for Golden State is that they haven’t let any opponent shoot 50% from the field since December 27th. The Under is 10-4 this season in Warriors’ games and 2-0 in Jazz’ games when the total is 220.0 or higher. 10* Under Warriors/Jazz

9* Over Texas A&M/Ole Miss (3:30 ET): I think we’ve hit a tipping point here where these teams are set to go Over the total. To be clear, the Aggies and Rebels have combined to go 21-4 Under this season while consistently producing low-scoring games. But this is the lowest O/U line to date (for either side) as oddsmakers were forced to react. It will be just the second game for A&M with a total lower than 130 points and the first for Ole Miss. Look for this one to “sneak Over” a very low total. 

While A&M comes into this game Saturday on a 9-game Under streak, several of those would have actually gone Over this O/U line. Four to be exact and it’s worth noting that only one of them has seen fewer than 122 total points scored, so that’s close. After losing 68-52 to Missouri last Saturday, the Aggies had their game vs. Vanderbilt postponed Tuesday. So they may not be as sharp defensively here.

Ole Miss held rival Miss State to just 46 points Tuesday, but before that they’d allowed over 70 in three consecutive contests. Their own scoring has dipped in SEC play, however, they are still averaging 71.2 PPG on the year and getting to that number today would almost ensure this game going Over. As I said earlier, this is the lowest O/U line either team has seen this season and in the case of the Rebels, only the last one was close. 9* Over Texas A&M/Ole Miss

10* Weber State (2:00 ET): It’s rare that the oddsmakers make an error. It’s even rarer when they do so on the same matchup twice in a row. But that certainly appears to be the case here. I wish I would have gotten down on Weber State Thursday night when they hosted Southern Utah as the Wildcats rode a hot first half (led 47-27 at the break) en route to an easy 91-67 win and cover as three-point favorites. Despite that lopsided result, Weber State did not open as the favorite for this rematch on Saturday. I realize this game is in Cedar City, but my power ratings say the road team should be favored.

Getting back to the concept of the oddsmakers’ error, certainly it’s always possible that one team just had a “good day” and made them (the oddsmakers) look bad. But I don’t think that’s necessarily the case here. Yes, Weber State played a great game Thursday and they were at home (where they are now 7-0 SU this season). But I simply believe they are the better of these two teams. The Wildcats are now 6-1 ATS on the season and have won their last four games (all at home) straight up. They are only 1-3 SU on the road, but two of those losses were against Boise State and BYU, who are quality opponents.

Southern Utah is 10-3 SU, but they have four wins by five points or less and two one-point victories. Like Weber State, the Thunderbirds are undefeated at home (8-0 SU), so the expectation here will be for them to earn a split of this home and home. But it’s telling the line isn’t higher. Again, I think Weber State should be favored. Will the shooting be as lopsided as it was Thursday night? Probably not. But Southern Utah has a LOT of ground to make up and I don’t see that happening in less than 48 hours. 10* Weber State

8* James Madison (12:00 ET): So something will have to give in this Noon ET tip in the Colonial. Northeastern is undefeated in the conference (6-0 SU and ATS) while James Madison is a perfect 4-0 ATS as underdogs. One thing is for sure. The visitors won’t lack motivation in this matchup. They’ve lost six straight times to the Huskies while also failing to cover every game. But this time, the number seems a tad too high. An early line move towards JMU seems to confirm my “suspicions” about this matchup.

Northeastern’s 6-0 start in the CAA has seen them sweep three teams - Elon, Hofstra and College of Charleston. Impressive as that may seem, three of the last four wins have come by five points or less. Now those are three that they played on the road. But still, the Huskies should feel a little fortunate. They just won two close ones last weekend at Charleston where they were slight favorites. The Huskies haven’t been favored by much in any of their conference games to this point. This opened as the largest spread to date. They have not been favored by more than six points in any game this season. 

James Madison has played only one conference game due to opponents’ COVID issues. They won that lone CAA tilt, beating Towson last Saturday by a score of 81-72 as a 2-point road dog. That was the Dukes’ third straight win dating back to Jan 5. Yes, three of their wins this season have been against non-DI teams. But they almost beat VCU as a 20-point underdog on the road, losing that game 82-81. Something that needs to be stated is that JMU has the CAA Player of the Year in Matt Lewis, who went for 30 points last time out and hit 9 of 12 three-pointers. Take the points. 8* James Madison

10* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): GCU is a team I’ve played before this season, when they hosted Nevada back on December 11th. They won that game 87-77 as a 1-point dog, at the time improving their won-loss record to a perfect 4-0. A three-game losing streak then followed, but two of those setbacks were by just 1 point and they actually covered all three. They’ve played just four games here in January, winning them all, including a pair of blowouts last week vs. non-DI team Bethesda (CA). The Antelopes’ ATS record this year is 7-1. 

Dixie State is new to D-I this season and the hodge-podge WAC seemed like the ideal landing spot for a team making the jump from Division II. However, as you may have guessed, things haven’t gone all that well for the Trailblazers this season. They are just 4-5 SU, two of those wins coming vs. non-DI teams and the other two coming by a combined four points. It’s a four-game losing streak heading into this game with two of those losses coming by at least 33 points. (Admittedly, one was vs. Gonzaga). 

Going by their 7-1 ATS record, it’s clear that the oddsmakers aren’t giving Grand Canyon enough respect and that continues to be the case with this number, which should be several points higher. Dixie State is among the very worst teams in the country (my own personal power ratings say bottom 15) and I don’t see how they deal with a GCU team that is shooting 53% from the field for the season. Bryce Drew’s Antelopes are the ONLY team in the country to rank Top 10 in both field goal percentage offense and defense! This is a decent team, at least when compared to the rest of the WAC lot. 10* Grand Canyon

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Mavericks ended their longest losing streak in two seasons (three games) Wednesday night, picking up a nice 124-112 win in Indiana. Believe it or not, that was the first game all season that the Mavs shot better than 50% from the field (52.4%). That’s shocking when you consider this team led the league in offensive efficiency last season. Despite the 3-game losing skid I mentioned at the top, the Mavs are still 6-2 ATS L8 games and I expect them to begin moving up the Western Conference standings in no time. They are 4-0 ATS off their previous four straight up victories. 

San Antonio is coming off its worst loss of the season, something I can’t say I’m sorry about. Their 121-99 loss to the Warriors Wednesday night was my 10* Game of the Week (on Golden State -1) and saw the Spurs never lead in the entire contest after falling behind by double digits in the first quarter. They trailed by as many as 25 at one point as it was a dreadful shooting night, particularly from three where they finished an unsightly 4 of 33. Will their shooting improve in this game? Yes, probably. But I still don’t think that will be enough. 

Since a four-game losing streak that surrounded the New Year, the Spurs have NOT dropped B2B games, going 6-3 SU overall. But I feel that distinction ends here tonight against what I view as a far superior team. I had the Mavs finishing in the top four in the West prior to the start of the season and right now they are 9th, so it’s time to get going. As I said in Wednesday’s analysis, the Spurs had been fairly fortunate recently, beating Portland and Houston when both were severely short-handed. 10* Dallas

8* Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): These Sun Belt foes met on three different occasions in the 2019 calendar year and each time the underdog emerged victorious. Coastal Carolina won 88-75 as a 5-point road dog in January of that year while Troy then returned the favor two months later with a 74-67 upset as 11-point pups. The first meeting of last season saw Troy win 77-59 as a 4.5-point dog. But then a “sense of normalcy” was restored in the second meeting as Coastal Carolina breezed to a 90-60 win and cover as nine-point chalk. That’s the way I think this one is going to go tonight. 

Troy comes in on a three-game losing streak, every loss coming on the road. They were swept at Georgia Southern last weekend, losing 67-64 and 63-56. Offense has been a major problem this season for the Trojans as they’ve failed to score 70 in 9 of their last 10 games vs. D-I opponents. (The exception being a 79-71 home win over Samford). For the season, they are averaging only 61.2 PPG and that number dips to an ugly 56.8 when away from home. Three-point shooting (24.5%) has been abysmal. This team is also only 13-27 ATS its L40 Sun Belt games.

Coastal Carolina is off a 71-68 loss to Georgia State, the only game they played last weekend. They did cover the spread though as seven-point road underdogs. Troy’s lack of offensive punch becomes a real problem when you consider the Chanticleers come in averaging a very healthy 87.1 PPG and that number jumps to 90.0 here in Conway. Granted, that’s somewhat inflated by wins over non-DI opponents, but still the team is shooting 50% from the field at home this season, including 40.6% from three-point range. Way too much firepower from the favorite in this one as CC looks to get back to the top of the conference. 8* Coastal Carolina