10* Yale (8:00 ET): These Ivy League schools just met last Friday w/ Yale winning 75-74. They were 6.5-pt road favorites in the contest, so even w/ the non-cover, it does appear there's value here with the Bulldogs back in Connecticut. Brown was able to keep pace last week due to the three-pointer (they made 12 compared to just five for Yale), but on the road, the Bears' shooting from long distance predictably dips. Furthermore, when they are the road team, Brown is allowing opponents to shoot a ghastly 53.2% from the floor. Lay the points

Tonight marks Yale's first home game in Ivy League play. They won two of three on the road so far, only losing to conference favorite Princeton. The Bulldogs won all six non-conference home games by an average of 22.1 points per game. Yes, that number is somewhat skewed due to a 102-46 win over Mitchell College on January 7th, but the last four wins have all come by double digit margins. They also have beaten Brown five straight times overall. They are 15-4 ATS L19 Friday games and 14-4 ATS when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest.

Brown is just 2-7 SU away from home this year due in large part to giving up over 80 PPG. They did win at Penn on 1.14, but also lost by 31 at Princeton the previous night. Yake has actually won 20 in a row at home (nation's 5th longest streak!), so this is a tough place to come in and win. Yes, Brown led by 12 at the half last Friday, but that was at home and I do not anticipate any kind of similar deficit taking place here. Yale is not only the Ivy League leaders in assists and rebounds per game, they are the top shooting team as well. They also commit the fewest fouls per game in the entire country! That's huge because Brown is the top FT shooting team in the league. Take away that part of the Bears' game and it should be a long night here. 10* Yale

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): This is the second night of a back to back for the Pacers, who won last night in Minnesota. Paul George led the way w/ 32 points and the team shot 51.9% from the floor (55% from three-point range!) in a 109-103 final. They now are a game over .500 and sixth in the Eastern Conference (sad?). For Sacramento, this is game #5 of what will eventually be an eight-game trip. They'll be in Charlotte tomorrow night. It's been back to back upsets pulled by the Kings, the last one coming in overtime, as 11-pt underdogs in Cleveland. It's difficult not to imagine there won't be some regression here, so I'll lay the short number w/ the Pacers, who are 16-6 SU at home.

Now I know this scenario hasn't been the most ideal for Indiana. They are 1-7 - both SU and ATS - in the second game of a back to back this season. They are also just 1-6 ATS (2-5 SU) coming off a SU win as a dog. But it's key to point out that five of the losses when unrested came on the road, four of them in the second of B2B road games. Here at home, they've been a bit sharper due to averaging 106.9 PPG overall. They are 13-2 SU when favored here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. They just beat the Kings less than 10 days ago (in Sacramento, obviously) by a score of 106-100 as two-point dogs. I was shocked to learn that the Kings had swept the previous two season series. I have zero issue calling for a reversal of that trend tonight.

Indiana actually trailed by as many as 19 in their win at Sacramento on 1.18. Suffice to say, they shouldn't have to overcome any such deficit here tonight. While credit should be given for winning at both Detroit and especially Cleveland, all is not well w/ the Kings. It just seems as if Boogie Cousins (despite clearly being the best player here) and the organization will never get on the same page. The key here could lie on the defensive end as Indiana holds visiting teams to just 42.8% shooting here at home while Sacramento has allowed 47.4% its L5 games. Prior to winning its last two games, Sacramento had won just twice in its previous 12 games. 10* Indiana

8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Both the Mavs and Thunder won last night, the former at home and the latter on the road. They'll be switching jerseys tonight as OKC plays host. This is the first meeting between the teams since LY's playoffs when the Thunder eliminated the Mavs in five games. In fact, OKC really owned Dallas last year, taking eight of nine overall matchups. Sure, it's pretty clear that the Mavs won't be back in the playoffs this year (would be just 2nd time missing them this century), but since that dreadful 5-18 SU start, they've actually played .500 ball. They have covered six of their last seven games, the lone non-cover being a four-point loss. For Oklahoma City, this is their first game back home after a LONG road trip.

The Mavs have been a bit short-handed during their recent win streak, which makes the results all the more impressive. Andrew Bogut did return to the lineup Wednesday. But Deron Williams (toe), Dirk Nowitzki (rest) and Wesley Matthews (hip) could all be MIA. But two of those three didn't play last night either when they comfortably defeated the Knicks. While Carmelo Anthony went for 30 pts against them, he was shut out in the fourth quarter. Harrison Barnes (23 pts) and Seth Curry (20) led the way for Dallas, who was able to win comfortably despite being outrebounded and not shooting the ball particularly well. Curry is shooting better than 50% from three-point range the L7 games and averaging 14.4 PPG.

After this game, Oklahoma City will be back on the road for games at Cleveland and San Antonio. Might they be looking ahead to those? They went just 3-3 SU on the recently completed trip w/ all three losses coming by double digits. Led by yet another triple double from Russell Westbrook, the Thunder won in New Orleans last night thanks to a big first half. But they are just 2-6 SU in the second game of a back to back. Granted, Dallas is 0-8 SU, but OKC is the one laying points here. 8* Dallas

8* Murray State (8:00 ET): This may seem like a bit of an "odd" game to choose, but after suffering an outright loss at Austin Peay on Saturday, I expect Murray State to bounce back in a major way tonight at home against SE Missouri State. Thus far, the Racers have gotten to play only two OVC games at home. Both were wins, against Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky. They've also won three of five on the conference road w/ both losses coming by four points or less. Meanwhile, SE Missouri State was just able to take care of some advantageous scheduling as they drew the two weakest teams in the OVC and beat both at home. Lay the points.

It was an overtime loss for Murray State on Saturday to Austin Peay. Nevertheless, they still lead the West Division in the OVC. Going into Austin Peay, the Racers had won three in a row. They led at the half. Here at home, the team averages 86.5 PPG and is 7-1 SU. They destroyed SE Missouri State here last season, winning by 27 points.

SE Missouri State has been a disaster away from home, going just 1-11 straight up. All but two of those losses were in "true" road games. They are being outscored by 9.4 PPG in them. At no point this season have the Indians won three straight games. Like I said earlier, they just got to host the two worst teams in the OVC (SIU Edwardsville and E Illinois). At one point in December, this team lost seven in a row, including a home game to Chicago State. 8* Murray State

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is one of only a handful of teams still w/o a conference loss. In what is a REALLY down year for "mid majors," the Seahawks are making a case that they could be the best in the nation. They're 19-2 SU w/ the losses coming at Clemson and Middle Tennessee (the other top mid major). They've gone a perfect 8-0 so far against the rest of the Colonial, winning by an average margin of 13 PPG. But I believe tonight to be a tricky spot as they're laying double digits on the road. It's a virtual certainty that they'll be getting James Madison's best shot here as the Dukes will be happy to be back home following consecutive road losses. Take the points.

While James Madison has dropped four of its last five, two of those losses were by two points or less. Since the start of CAA play, the Duke have gone 3-1 SU at home. The one loss was by two points against College of Charleston, who is the second best team in the conference. Over the last week, they've gone 0 for 2 on the road w/ a one-point loss at William & Mary and then a second loss to Charleston, this time by 13. But despite falling by double digits, the game was actually pretty even. There were six ties and 10 lead changes, but a 35-18 edge in FT attempts for Charleston largely determined the final score. It was also a tough spot for JMU as Charleston was coming off its first CAA loss, to UNC Wilmington no less.

UNC Wilmington won its game by 13 on  Saturday, but did not cover as huge 18-pt favorites at Drexel. Again, that was another game that was close at the half, but the home team was able to pull away late (even though they were just 9 of 34 from three-point range). Clearly, we've reached a point where the lines are inflated on this team in conference play. The Seahawks have scored at least 84 in five of their past six games, but here I look for them to struggle offensively as JMU is giving up just 66.8 PPG. Also, this is a big revenge spot for JMU as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L2 seasons against UNCW. 10* James Madison

8* Drexel (7:00 ET): Drexel is not having a good season at all as they have just one conference win against six losses. Tonight, they host CAA rival Hofstra in a big revenge spot. Hofstra has won all five H2H meetings between the schools the last two seasons, including a 3-0 sweep in 2016. But it's not as if the Pride are having themselves a memorable campaign here in 2017 either. They are just 2-6 in conference play, one of those victories coming Saturday at home against Northeastern. Both league wins have been by five points or less. The idea of this team laying points on the road seems fishy to me. Lay the points.

With a defense giving up an average of 81.6 points per game on the road, Hofstra hardly seems like an ideal candidate to be laying points. They were favored by eight over Delaware on the road in one of their two CAA wins. But they won that game by only two points. In fact, their two wins as road faves both came by two points as they beat Columbia 88-86 back on November 29th. The only other time they were a road fave was early in the year, at Manhattan, and they lost that game outright. Interestingly, they haven't won any games this year as an underdog (0-6). Though it was called an "upset" by some, they were actually slight favorites (-1.5) vs. Northeastern on Saturday. The Pride shot better than 54% for the game there and converted a 3-point play w/ just 17 seconds to go for the win.

I just don't see Hofstra making it two in a row here. Note that Drexel ran into UNC Wilmington (see other writeup) on Saturday and played them tough for a half as they were down only four at the break. Having played the best team in the CAA twice, Drexel has clearly had the more challenging conference schedule to this point. Hofstra has lost its last three CAA road games. They are just 8-19 ATS off a conference win the L3 seasons. 8* Drexel

10* Hawaii (11:59 ET): As you might expect, Hawaii is far more competitive out on the island as they're 8-6 SU here. That may not sound awe-inspiring (and it isn't), but it's also a "far cry" from what we've seen from this team on the mainland thus far, in an albeit small sample size. In four games away from home (two "true" road, two neutral), they're 0-4 SU/ATS, losing by double digit margin. Thankfully, the Warriors play at home tonight against UC Riverside, a team that is 1-9 SU in "true" road games. That one win came in their last one, last Thursday's outright triumph (were +7.5) at CS-Fullerton. They followed that win up on Saturday by beating undermanned UCSB 65-55 at home to improve to 5-0 ATS in Big West play. But I say that run comes to an end here. Lay the points.

Hawaii did lose here at home Saturday, 76-70 to Cal Davis as 2.5-pt chalk. It was a close game throughout w/ the game essentially decided at the FT line late. I'm always surprised when a road team can get to the free throw with great regularity than their host, but UC Davis did it with a shocking 37 attempts there. The loss snapped Hawaii's two game win streak as they'd beaten both Long Beach State and Cal State Northridge previously. The last time they lost a game outright as home chalk, they responded w/ a 20-pt win their next time out. This was back on November 27th against Arkansas Pine Bluff.

UC Riverside is not strong defensively as they give up 77 PPG on the road. Therefore, it was pretty shocking to see them hold their last opponent to just 30% shooting for the game, even if it was at home. But keep in mind that opponent, UCSB, is 331st in the country in scoring and currently w/o its second leading scorer. Prior to winning the L3 games, the first two as underdogs, the Highlanders had just three wins total in the first 14 games. They'd lost 9 of their last 10. The road team won both matchups between these Big West rivals last year, including the Highlanders pulling an upset as 14-pt dogs on the road. That won't happen again though as Hawaii should shoot a lot better this time around. They are 10-3 ATS off a conference loss, by the way. 10* Hawaii

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): A rare play on the Lakers by me as this is way too many points for Portland to be laying, period. It is the second straight road game for LA and in the last one, they were dealt the worst loss in franchise history, losing to Dallas by 49 points. But you may be surprised to hear that even though the Lakers have now dropped six of their last seven games overall, Portland is only four up on them in the standings. This is a tricky spot for the Blazers too as they return home from a four-game East Coast trip that ended w/ an upset of Boston as eight-point dogs. But before that they'd lost four in a row - both SU and ATS. Take the points here.

This is a matchup of two very poor defensive teams. The Lakers are in fact the worst in the league at the end of the floor, at least in terms of efficiency. But Portland isn't far ahead (27th) and actually allows the same number of points per game (110.5). So it's somewhat of an ideal matchup for the underdog. Also, if the players aren't motivated by what happened to them Sunday, then I don't know what to say. They shot just 38.4% against Dallas in a game where HC Luke Walton said "We didn't show up to play. . "It's embarrassing for us as a team, an organization, for our fans. The effort wasn't there. I love our group of guys. I know we're going to bring it the next game. That's not who we are, but it's frustrating what happened."

Portland needed OT to upend Boston on Saturday. Perhaps the time off alleviates some of the issue w/ returning home after a long-trip. But the team has covered as a favorite only four times over its L20 games. Granted, two of those were against the Lakers, but the spread was never this high. In fact, it was only -6.5 the last time they met in the Moda Center, which was three weeks ago. The teams also met on 1.10 in LA w/ the Blazers prevailing 108-87. So this a big time revenge spot for the Lakers too as they've actually now lost 10 straight to the Blazers. The number of contributions Portland got in its last game probably won't be present again here tonight. The second worst team in the league ATS laying its biggest number of the year is prime fade material. 10* LA Lakers

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): I went w/ the Bucks their last time out and they responded by delivering an outright victory here at home against the Rockets. That was a much needed result for this team, which had previously dropped five in a row - both SU and ATS. It was also a revenge spot as one of those five straight losses had come in Houston. Given that the number for the road loss was +6.5 and the Bucks then found themselves getting 4.5 for the rematch, my thinking is that it was a tremendous value. The same rationale applies here for yet another revenge spot against Philadelphia. Last week in Philly, the Bucks lost outright (as 8.5-pt chalk). While an adjustment is necessary after that result, the fact we now don't have to lay much more in Milwaukee seems like a bargain to me. Lay the points.

In that 113-104 win over the Bucks last week, the 76ers had eight player score in double figures. Chief among them was Joel Embiid, who led the way w/ 22. But Embiid will be unavailable here in this, the second game of a back to back for the team. Note that the Sixers are just 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in the 2nd game of a B2B this season. They've won only 8 of 49 such games the L3 seasons. Embiid did not play last night either, but somehow the team still found a way to overcome a 19-point deficit to beat the Clippers, who are of course very short-handed themselves. Nerles Noel made his 1st start last year and performed quite admirably. But can he do it again. Remember that the Sixers still rank dead last in the league in offensive efficiency, so I wouldn't expect a repeat of last night's 121-point performance nor do I envision them making 14 three-pointers again like they did LW in Milwaukee.

The Bucks are off a strong offensive showing themselves as they turned in a season-best 58.8 FG% vs. Houston. Their 127 points scored were also the most in any game this season. However, the difference between them and Philly is that the Bucks lead the Eastern Conference in overall FG% (47.4), trailing only the Warriors and Spurs league-wide. Led by the "Greek Freak," Giannis Antetoukounmpo, the Bucks are still a team I'm quite high on. 8* Milwaukee

10* Iowa State (9:00 ET): Two Big 12 teams coming off outright wins as dogs meet Tuesday night in Ames. Actually, Kansas State has won SU B2B times as dogs, turning the trick at both Oklahoma State and West Virginia's expense. The Wildcats are now a perfect 4-0 ATS taking points this season. But for whatever reason, Iowa State appears to have become a tad bit underrated, at least according to oddsmakers and public here. The Cyclones do not lose at home often and come off a 92-87 win at Oklahoma over the weekend. With some better luck in close games (four losses by 4 pts or less), they'd be high in the polls. As it stands right now, they're not even ranked. But I have them as a Top 20 team and will lay the points here.

The four close losses that ISU has suffered came at the hands of Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Baylor and Kansas, all of whom are ranked in the Top 20. Three of them (Cincy the exception) checked in ranked in the Top 25 in the newest poll! So it's not as if the six losses are something the team should "hang its head" over. Saturday in Norman, it took two overtimes, but they were able to snap a two-game losing streak. The key was Deonte Burden scoring a career high 31 points. Also, they forced 25 turnovers and held OU to just 40% shooting. After falling behind early (were down 28-9!), ISU would go on to score 21 of the game's next 22 points and it was back and forth from there. Note that at home this year, the Cyclones are outscoring opponents by 23.4 PPG while holding them to a 36.1 FG%. Thus, this looks like a pretty short number to lay.

Kansas State is off a big win over West Virginia (got me!), but that was in Manhattan. Their four "true" road games thus far are the four games that they've been underdogs and as mentioned before, they're 4-0 ATS including a pair of losses by two points or less (at Texas Tech and Kansas). So neither side has been that lucky in close game so far, though both did just win by less than five on Saturday. K State was able to beat WVU (1st win over ranked opponent TY) thanks to forcing turnovers (similar to ISU vs. Oklahoma) and also had to rally from a double digit first half deficit. Despite both teams profiling so similarly, I feel the home court edge is being underrated and ISU is the better team anyway. 10* Iowa State

10* Over Bulls/Magic (7:05 ET): Scoring has exploded in the NBA this season, so almost instinctively, you have to look to the Over. I had no problem doing so here, even though the Bulls are the top Under team in the league right now (28-15-2) and have gone Under in each of the last four meetings vs. the Magic. Why, you ask? Well, for starters, Orlando has given up at least 109 points in five of its last six games. The Bulls scored 112 on them in the first meeting of the season, back in November. At the same time, I expect the Magic to shoot a lot better tonight compared to two months ago. They were just 38.8% for the game and attempted only six free throws. It was actually a 61-52 game at the half (in favor of Chicago) before scoring screeched to a halt in the second half and the Under barely cashed.

The Bulls last played on Saturday and beat the Kings, 102-99. Again, that was a fairly high scoring first half (107 total pts), but the second (3Q in particular) was a different story. Chicago was lucky that Sacramento has little beyond Boogie Cousins, who went for 42, but the rest of the Kings scored only 57. Defensively, this team is not even close to what it was during the Tom Thibodeau days. They're allowing 102.1 PPG on the road this season and haven't allowed fewer than 99 in any of their last nine games, period. On offense though, the team posted its best rating in awhile against the Kings. The Magic aren't a whole lot better defensively than Sacramento.

Orlando ran into Golden State Sunday afternoon and you can pretty much guess how that one went. They allowed 118 points and lost by 20. It was their second 118-98 loss in the L3 games. In between, they scored 112 in a rare rout of Milwaukee. As I've already noted several times, defense is not this team's strong suit. Over the L5 games, they've given up an average of 114.2 PPG w/ opponents shooting nearly 50% from the floor. That's negated the team's own 105.4 PPG scoring average. For the year, the team does rank 29th in offensive efficiency, but again - they won't do any worse than they did the last time facing Chicago. That November 7th matchup saw the teams combine to go 12 of 49 from three-point range. We'll see much better here. 10* Over Bulls/Magic

8* Boston (7:05 ET): Spirits should be high for this game as the Celtics and Wizards have developed a bit of a rivalry this season. The home team has won the previous two matchups and on January 11th in Boston, we saw tempers flare on both sides, leading to a minor scuffle at the end of the game. Washington is going so far as to wear "all black uniforms" Tuesday night and that's somewhat apropos given the team has been largely "in the black" betting wise here in 2017. An outright win last night in Charlotte marked the Wiz's sixth consecutive cover and they've now won 8 of 10 overall. Both losses, one to Boston and the other by one point at Detroit, came on the road. The team has won 13 consecutive home games dating back to December 8th. But this is also the second game of a back to back and Boston is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season as a road fave of three points or less. I'm on the visitor here.

Often times, I make the argument that teams come in undervalued in the second game of a back to back. But that's not really the case here. Plus, the Wizards are just 2-7 straight up this year when playing w/o rest. Last night saw them shoot nearly 54% from the floor against Charlotte, a game they never trailed. They are now 12-2 SU this year when shooting 50% from the floor or better. But they shot just 42.9% in Boston two weeks ago, losing that one 117-108. While I've been impressed w/ the Wizards' recent ascension in the Eastern Conference standings (gone 18-8 SU L26 games overall), I still have my doubts as far as the defense goes (allow 105.7 PPG). This is not a top 10 team in either offensive or defensive efficiency, by the way.

Boston enters this game off B2B losses (as favorites) to New York and Portland at home. Those are "bad" losses, so even w/o the "budding rivalry" here, you'd naturally expect the Celtics to be highly motivated coming into this one. You have to like that perfect record as a short road favorite and over the L5 games the offense is averaging more than 111 PPG. Similar to last night's play on Milwaukee where I stressed "buy low," I believe it's time to "sell high" on Washington. 8* Boston

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): What has happened to the Bucks? One of the real early "pleasant surprises" in the Eastern Conference, they've all of a sudden dropped five in a row - both SU and ATS. Four of those losses, though, took place on the road. The last two were at Orlando and Miami, not a "good look" by any means, nor was the one home loss during the streak (to Philadelphia). But as a result of the recent swoon, we're now able to grab the Bucks at a very advantageous price. Tonight marks the 1st time since a December 20th game vs. Cleveland where they've been priced as a home dog. It's for good reason as they play a red hot Houston team that just beat them by 19 last week. But of particular interest to me is the fact this line is virtually the same as it was in Houston. Good value here. Take the points.

Since X-Mas, the Rockets have lost only four games (won 12). But all four losses have taken place over the course of the L7 games. The last one came at home to Golden State on Friday. But they quickly bounced back by disposing of Memphis on the road, 119-95, the following night. The size of that win has also contributed to the overinflation of this line, in my opinion. Note that when these teams met down in Houston last week, the game didn't really get out of hand until late. The Bucks did not shoot well (39.8 percent overall), particularly from three-point range (7 of 28). I expect better offensive play tonight from a team averaging 108.8 PPG at home. Remember that Houston is not a stalwart defensively. They allow 109.2 PPG on the road. 

That game last week, plus Saturday at Memphis, mark two of the only four times that the Rockets have held an opponent below 100 pts in the new year. It's also the only two times an opponent has shot below 40% against them. Again, I look for the Bucks to improve somewhat dramatically on the offensive end here. HC Jason Kidd has been toying w/ his lineup to no avail of late, but now that this mini Jabari Parker controversy is over (benched one game for "leaking" team info), that should be settled. If you're like me and view teams like stocks, then this would be a great time to "buy low" on the Bucks. 10* Milwaukee

8* Under NC State/Duke (7:00 ET): Because NC State is coming off a wild 93-88 game vs. Wake Forest (lost), we are able to get an O/U line that's higher than normal for Duke, who could be w/o Grayson Allen. Allen was injured (finger) in the last game, a 70-58 win over Miami, but is listed as probable. Despite the absence of Allen's thuggish behavior, the Blue Devils still turned in a strong defensive effort against "The U," allowing just 58 points. However, concerning is that nearly HALF of their own points scored (31) came off Miami turnovers. The Dukies actually were behind at halftime (trailed by 11!) thanks to one of their worst shooting halves of the year (0 for 12 from 3-pt range). Remember they are still w/o Coach K on the bench (Jeff Capel serving as interim). I'm on the Under in this one.

NC State certainly has issues defensively. That should be obvious when you consider the fact they shot 51% at home, scored 88 pts and still lost Saturday. They're now giving up an average of 84.7 PPG in ACC play. But even though the game vs. Wake Forest flew Over, a total this high lends itself to the Under. Prior to Saturday, there had been only two Wolfpack games where the O/U line was 160+. Both stayed Under and that's even with them allowing 107 pts in one of them! What was bad about Saturday is that it was Wake Forest's first ACC road win in three seasons. Even w/ Duke's rather "infamous" homecourt edge, I do not believe they'll go 29 of 33 from the FT line like Wake did 48 hours ago. Nor will NC State shoot as well tonight.

Due to injuries and the Allen suspension, Duke has been using a lot of different starting lineups of late. The end result is they've only topped 75 points twice in the last seven games. Again, had it not been for all the Miami turnovers on Saturday, I'm not sure how the Blue Devils would have scored. Defensively though, this team is pretty solid. They are holding opponents to a field goal percentage of only 38.7% here at Cameron and giving up just 61.1 points per game. That includes just 26.6% from three-point range. In four "true" road games thus far, NC State is averaging only 64.8 PPG, a dramatic decrease (-21.4 PPG) from what they average in Raleigh. 8* Under NC State/Duke

10* Iona (7:00 ET): While still one of the top teams in the MAAC (#2 behind Monmouth?), Iona hasn't been quite as dominant this year. Well, at least on the road. Last Tuesday, the Gaels snapped a four-game skid on the road by winning 82-67 at Manhattan. They followed that up by beating Fairfield Friday, 96-89, but failed to cover the nine-point spot at home. But tonight, for the first time, they actually get to play consecutive home games in conference play. The opponent is Quinnipiac (known for it's polling!) and this would be a revenge spot for Iona as they lost up in Hamden earlier this month, 97-91 (overtime) as seven-point favorites. Given what the line was there and the change in venue, this price looks to be a real bargain on Iona. Lay the points.

In addition to being a university known for its polling, Quinnipiac has a basketball team that's been pulling it's fair share of upsets of late. Compared to other conferences, MAAC play started early this year. Quinnipiac lost its first league game, back on Dec 1, 91-72 at Monmouth. But since then, the Bobcats have roared to a 7-0-1 ATS mark in league play including three outright upsets. Two have come in the last 10 days, the last one being Friday at Canisius, a game where they allowed 58 second half pts and still won. They were fortunate to jump out to a 15-point halftime lead there and also shot 58.8% for the game (8 of 13 from 3-pt range!). I seriously doubt that they'll be able to come close to matching those numbers here on the road. It also helped that they had five days off before the Canisius game. Just to show what the market thought of this team coming into the year, Quinnipiac has been a dog in every MAAC game but one (were -1.5 vs. Manhattan). 

The first meeting between these teams saw Iona blow a second half lead and fall in OT. I took the Gaels their next time out as they responded w/ a 15-pt win at Manhattan. Friday vs. Fairfield, they never trailed (shot 56.9%) and won despite the opponent sinking 12 of 25 three-pointers. That game, like this one, was a revenge spot. It's important to note that Iona averages over 86 PPG at home where they've only lost one time. In all three MAAC home games, they've topped 90 points! I look for the Gaels to exact revenge yet again here against an opponent that is due to start regressing. 10* Iona

10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): Denver rolled to a 123-98 victory over the Clippers last night. But that was at home and let us not forget how short-handed the Clips are right now (no Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin). So while the final margin of victory is still impressive, the opponent really was not. Tonight, without rest, the Nuggets now have to hit the road. They'll face a Minnesota team that while near the bottom of the Western Conference standings, is a lot better than its overall record. In fact, in terms of my own personal power rankings, there probably isn't a greater discrepancy between the ranking and WL record than what the T'wolves are currently sporting. Recently, they have shown signs of turning things around by covering six of their last seven. I'll lay the points here.

Minny also just beat the Clippers in their last game, 104-101. The fact that game was played Thursday gives a big advantage to them here, especially being at home. The T'wolves are off three straight road games here, but have won three straight at home, including impressive victories over both Houston and Oklahoma City. Their only loss on a recent four-game home stand came by two points. They are 6-1 ATS this season in home games where the total is 210 or higher. I love the young talent on hand here, particularly Karl Anthony-Towns, who went for 37 points and 12 rebounds on Thursday. An often leaky Nuggets defense likely will have no answer for him. 

Denver enjoyed its biggest lead in any game this season last night (35) and held a team under 100 points for the 1st time since December 8th. Yes, this is one of the worst defensive teams in the league as they allow 111.6 points per game.  They too have been hot (won 4 of 5), but they come to the Twin Cities w/o rest and a bit shorthanded. Both Gary Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay are unlikely to play. That's your starting backcourt right there. So it won't be as big as deal that the T'wolves are w/o PG Ricky Rubio (could be traded). This is also a double revenge spot for Minnesota as twice they've gone down to Denver this year, both games decided by three points or less. 10* Minnesota

10* VCU (2:00 ET): VCU might be one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 (Dayton is the best, IMO), but lately they have not played like it, dropping B2B games as favorites to Davidson and Fordham. The loss earlier this week to Fordham came in overtime and by just two points w/ the game-winning basket being scored at the buzzer. That game winner came after VCU's Justin Tillman missed the front end of a one and one (game was tied). Both losses did take place on the road. This afternoon, the Rams welcome LaSalle to the Commonwealth and I like their chances of bouncing back given not only the home record, but the Explorers' lousy defense. Lay the points.

VCU is 8-1 SU at home this year, outscoring foes by 17.6 points per game. The last time they played here, they destroyed George Washington by 30. But then came the loss to Davidson last Saturday as the team shot only 35% from the floor. The Rams never led against Fordham on Wednesday (battle of "Rams") as 22 turnovers proved costly in a game where they still outshot their opponents. Defensively, I believe VCU is more than fine as they rank in the top 54 nationally, allowing just 66.1 points per game. On the offensive end, LaSalle might be first in the A-10 in FG%, but VCU is a close second. The Rams had scored 81+ in three straight games before suffering the B2B losses.

LaSalle is all offense and no defense. They give up 84.9 PPG on the road, which is a pretty frightening number. They do come into this game tied for first place in the conference as they've won five in a row. But four of those wins have come at home, two of them against St. Louis and Duquesne. The L3 games have all seen the Explorers shoot the lights out (over 58% overall!), but that's not sustainable, especially against this VCU defense. Last year, these teams exchanged victories, the road team winning both times. So it's about time the host returned the favor.  I look for VCU to take advantage of LaSalle's leaky defense in this one. Another edge is they've had an extra day to prepare as LaSalle's last game took place Thursday (at home vs. Davidson), a game they still allowed 83 points. 10* VCU

10* West Virginia (6:00 ET): I haven't even attempted to hide my affinity for Bob Huggins' West Virginia team this year. I've taken them multiple times already and with one exception (at Texas Tech), have always come out on the winning end. This evening sees them hitting the road, looking to bounce back from just their third loss of the season. Like the previous two, Wednesday's loss was close (by two points), but it was definitely the most shocking to date. As 16.5-pt favorites in Morgantown, they lost to Oklahoma in overtime. WVU's three losses this year have now come by a total of seven points, none by larger than a four-point margin. I realize Kansas State's "Octagon of Doom" is a tough place to win at, but the Mountaineers are just too good to drop B2B games. Lay the points.

Kansas State is off an impressive road win as they beat Oklahoma State 96-88 (+3) on Wednesday. Of course, West Virginia has already gone to Stillwater and won by 17. In KSU's win, they shot a blistering 56.3% from the floor. That's highly unlikely to be repeated here, even at home. Also, it's not a good sign that the Wildcats couldn't really shake the Pokes until late, even shooting as well as they did. They allowed 88 points. Nevertheless, they'll take it as they'd previously dropped three of four, including a home game to Baylor right after the Bears got whitewashed in Morgantown earlier in the week. Making matters more difficult here is the fact that PG Kamau Stokes left the Oklahoma State game w/ an ankle injury. If he can't go here (listed as questionable), good luck handling WVU's press.

Nicknamed "Press Virginia," the Mountaineers lead the country by forcing 23.8 TO's per game. They are #1 in TO margin and it's not even close as they're more than double the #2 team. Given the fact KSU could be w/o its starting point guard and already is turning it over on 18.6 percent of possessions in league play, this does not appear to be a favorable matchup for them. West Virginia lost to Oklahoma, in part, due to forcing only 12 turnovers. I expect them to amp up the pressure here. This is a deep team, one of only two in the country to grab at least 40% of its own misses at the offensive end as well. 10* West Virginia

10* Detroit (6:05 ET): A brutal 15-game stretch from 12.16-1.13 (went 4-11 SU) made it look like Stan Van Gundy's Pistons were in freefall. But they've since responded w/ B2B wins. Beating the Lakers by five is certainly nothing to "write home about," however, Wednesday's dominating performance against what has been a red hot Atlanta team certainly was. Here at home, Detroit won 118-95 as 2.5-pt home dogs. Now they turn around and host another team they'll likely be fighting with for playoff position. That would be the Wizards, who has been playing well, like Atlanta was. But a key (for me) in handicapping this matchup is that it's in the Motor City. Washington is just 5-13 SU on the road this year and that's after a three-point win over the sorry Knicks Thursday.

The Wiz come in riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak. They were the betting favorite in all four games, although just a slight one in each of the last three, which explains a 3-0 ATS mark despite two of the wins coming by only three points each. As you'd expect, John Wall is leading this charge w/ averages of 25+ points and 10+ assists per game. Offensively, the team has scored at least 100 points in nine consecutive games. But defensively, there are issues, particularly on the road where they give up 108.2 PPG. That's the primary reason for the subpar record away from D.C. and overall this team does not defend the three-point line well. At the same time, their own three-point shooting declines on the road, down to only 31.3 percent. Looking at the team's five road wins, none have come against an opponent w/ a winning record.

Detroit dominated Atlanta from the start on Wednesday, scoring a season-best 42 points in the first quarter and they never once trailed. But, make no mistake about it, defense will carry this team if it ends up going anywhere of consequence. They held Atlanta below 40 percent shooting and it should be noted that despite the recent rough stretch, the Pistons still rank a solid 12th in defensive efficiency (were much higher before the slide). This is also a revenge spot too for a game they allowed Washington to shoot 57.1% from the floor. That actually begat the 4-11 slide. The game was also in D.C. Furthermore, the Pistons are now a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Their average margin of victory in those games, including Wednesday's win over Atlanta, is 15.0 points per game. 10* Detroit

10* Kentucky (6:00 ET): These are the only two teams still w/o loss in SEC play. But as you can tell from the line, "not all unbeatens are created equal." While its obvious that Kentucky is the top team in its conference, a case could also be made that they are the top team in the country. The Wildcats come into Saturday ranked #5 in the country and have won six straight since their three-point loss to Louisville. Those six wins have all come in SEC play as they're outscoring foes by a whopping 20.6 points per game. Meanwhile, South Carolina might be ranked as well, but I'm not sure they're among the 35 best teams in the country, let alone top 25. Their avg MOV in conf play is less than nine points per game. I expect UK to roll here. Lay the points.

Coach Cal's team has failed to cover three in a row. They're off one of their closest calls so far as they only prevailed 88-81 in Starkville against Mississippi State as 14-pt favorites. The fact that MSU shot the ball so well (54.2%) is what kept them in the game. However, I'll point out that the Wildcats were up by as many as 17 in the second half. That was their highest shooting percentage allowed for the season and only the third time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the floor (other two were N Carolina & UCLA). Offensively, there are no issues here. They've scored at least 87 pts in every league game while shooting 52.2%! Only UCLA is rated higher in offensive efficiency, nationally.

South Carolina has never had much success against Kentucky. Over the past two seasons, they are 0-3 SU/ATS against the Wildcats, losing by 15, 34 and 27. The most lopsided loss came here in Lexington where they're just 1-16 SU past 17 visits. I wouldn't be too worried about this price range either as UK is already 6-2 ATS this season laying 12.5 or more points at Rupp Arena. Kudos to the job HC Frank Martin is doing in Columbia, but his Gamecocks are in over their head in this one. This is not exactly a favorable spot either after having to play Florida on Tuesday. They grinded out a four-point win there (at home) despite shooting a horrible 29.4% from the floor. They are now shooting just 38.1% in SEC play. Anywhere near that average here and this will quickly turn into "blowout city." 10* Kentucky

8* Texas A&M (12:00 ET): This is the Aggies' second consecutive game being favored at home. They lost (by two) to Arkansas on Tuesday. That marked their second consecutive loss as they've started 1-5 in SEC play. I do not see them dropping B2B games here in College Station, so early this afternoon I'll be laying the points as they welcome in a Georgia team that's probably a bit overconfident coming off a 10-point win over Vanderbilt. That game took place in Athens, however. While the 'Dawgs might be 3-0 ATS on the SEC road thus far, I don't see them keeping that up. Last year, they were thrashed by A&M, losing by 34 at home. While I'm sure the players remember, the revenge angle is superseeded here by likelihood of an Aggies' bounce-back on their home court.

In fact, Texas A&M is just 1-7 ATS its last eight games. They've been favored in the L2 games, dropping both outright. Last Saturday saw them go down at Mississippi State, 67-59 as 2.5-pt chalk. They dominated the board in that game (38-23 rebounding edge), but lost due to 22 turnovers and horrific (1 of 14) shooting from three-point range. They actually jumped out to a 10-0 lead to start the game. It was another blown lead Tuesday as they blew a 12-pt second half lead vs. Arkansas. Again, the team failed to shoot the ball well from three-point range (6 of 20). But, overall, the team has shot the ball this year (47.1%) and while depth has been a concern for HC Billy Kennedy (lost four starters from LY's Sweet 16 team), it's not as if they've been playing all that poorly.

A&M can defend as here at home, they're giving up an average of just 62 PPG. It is Georgia that really doesn't shoot well from three-point range, at least on the road where they're just 27.7% for the season. I'll point out that A&M has already faced both unbeaten SEC schools (Kentucky, South Carolina) and was actually FAVORED against a top 20 Arizona team on a neutral floor. The market has simply moved too far against them for this one as simply can't see them failing to cover for a third straight time as a short favorite. They are still 38-8 SU L46 home games. 8* Texas A&M

10* WI-Milwaukee (8:00 ET): Have we really reached the point of the College Basketball season where we can start talking about revenge? How time flies! In a result you likely missed (unless you're a HUGE fan of Horizon League basketball), Cleveland State beat WI-Milwaukee at home on New Year's Eve, 62-53 as five-point faves. The Vikings shot 53.5% from the floor in that game, 7 of 17 from three-point range and made 9 of 11 free throws. That's a highly irregular efficient day on the offensive end for this team. Asking CSU to win on the road seems a bit much given their 1-9 SU record in "true" road affairs. They are also just 3-10 ATS as underdogs. Having to only lay the shortest of numbers, WI-Milwaukee will get its revenge tonight.

Admittedly, little has gone right for WI-Milwaukee this season. They have just one win in Horizon League play thus far (66-58 over N Kentucky) and that's their ONLY win in the L10 games period. After blowing an 11-pt lead in the second half vs. Wright State last Saturday, the Panthers fell on the road to IL-Chicago on Tuesday, 71-57 as four-point dogs. That was actually their largest margin of defeat so far in conference play. Each of the L2 years have seen they cover easily here at home against Cleveland State. Last year was a 34-point win while 2015 brought an outright upset as four-point dogs. The Panthers have been far more competitive at home, outscoring opponents and holding them to just 65 PPG.

After beating WI-Milwaukee, Cleveland State promptly lost its last four games. Twice they were held to 54 points or less. But then on Monday they pulled a somewhat shocking upset, winning at Oakland 76-65 as 13.5-pt dogs. That was their first and only "true" road win thus far. They received a career-high 32 points from Rob Edwards, but expecting a repeat performance seems a little "fool-hardy." The Vikings had a strong showing from three-point range in the upset, but are actually dead last among Horizon League teams in 3-pt%. Little has gone right for Milwaukee thus far, but this is a game that they should - and WILL - win. 10* WI-Milwaukee

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The Hornets had lost five in a row prior to beating Portland 107-85 on Wednesday as 5.5-pt favorites. Pertinent to our discussion here is the fact that all five Hornets losses occurred out on the road, two of them at San Antonio and Houston. Tonight, they'll draw another top five team, but this time at home. Toronto suffered what has to be considered somewhat of a shocking loss their last time out, falling 94-89 at Philadelphia. It was their lowest scoring output since their own loss at San Antonio back on Jan 3rd. While the Raptors are 5-1 ATS this year off a SU loss as a favorite, I don't see Charlotte losing again after (finally) creating some positive momentum (there's that word again) in their last game.

The Raptors could very well be a bit short-handed here. DeMarre Carroll (neck), Lucas Noguiera (concussion) and Patrick Patterson (knee) are all listed as questionable. That puts a lot of pressure on the starting guard duo of DeMar DeRozam and Kyle Lowry. Toronto shot only 40% against Philadelphia and was outrebounded. Defensively, this team is giving up 105.7 PPG on the road this year.

Charlotte's own defense got back on track against the Blazers. It was the first time holding an opponent below 100 pts in 2017. They'll be tested by the #2 offense in efficiency, but overall the Hornets remain eighth in defensive efficiency. They hosted Toronto once this year (only meeting so far) and lost by two thanks to the Raptors making 21 of 22 free throw attempts. The Hornets shot only 40% from the floor in that game. Charlotte is definitely better than its record from where I sit where I'm not sure you can say the same about Toronto, who couldn't have asked for its first half to go any better. Must win for the home team? I look for them to deliver. 10* Charlotte

8* Wright State (7:00 ET): What am I missing here? Wright State has already beaten Detroit once this year, on the road, and did it as 6.5-pt road favorites. The final score was 85-72. Therefore, I'm trying to figure out this line for Friday's rematch as the Raiders are essentially being asked to lay the same number on their home floor. I get that Detroit comes in off B2B wins, one of them an impressive upset at Oakland. But this line appears to be way off from where I sit as prior to those B2B wins, Detroit was just 2-14 SU for the season w/ one of those wins coming in the season opener against a non-DI school. Lay the points here. 

Wright State had dropped B2B games before playing WI-Milwaukee last Saturday. They beat the Panthers 70-67. While they definitely had to rally late to do so (never led in the first half), it's always impressive to win on the conference road, especially when playing there for the second time in three nights. It's a much better situation here for Wright State as they've been off since Saturday while Detroit had to play Monday. This will be the Raiders' first home game since suffering an outright loss to Youngstown State on 1.7. They're still 7-2 SU at the Nutter Center, however, and outscoring visitors by 13.3 points per game. Detroit is just 1-9 SU on the road, allowing 86.2 points per game. It's no surprise (to me) that Wright State achieved its highest scoring game in Horizon League play thus far at the Titans' expense.

Detroit had lost five in a row before picking up its lone road win of the last Friday, a real shocker over Oakland as they were 18.5-pt dogs in that one. They followed that up by winning Monday, 87-71 at home over Youngstown State. Again though, this is a team w/ only four wins all year. They allowed Wright State to shoot 55% from the floor in the first meeting, including 12 of 21 from three-point range. The Raiders are shooting better than 40% from behind the arc here at home. Meanwhile, I would not expect Detroit to have a good night from three-point range as they're only 30% for the year and WSU holds visiting teams to 29%.  8* Wright State

10* Over Mavericks/Heat (7:35 ET): Scoring is way up this year in NBA. But neither of the two teams involved here have really played any kind of significant role in that. In fact, they happen to be the two lowest scoring teams in the league currently. Miami ranks 29th in the league in offensive efficiency (ahead of only Philadelphia), but has scored 108 and 109 pts respectively in their last two games. Dallas is dead last in the league in points per game (95.7), but actually up to 25th in offensive efficiency. Even though neither team averages 100 PPG, you have to think that this total is too low given the level of scoring we've seen in the league this year. Both teams also happen to struggle defensively. Take the Over.

Dallas is allowing opponents to shoot better than 47% overall for the year and over 40% from three-point range. On the road, those numbers get slightly worse and as a result they give up 102.7 points per game. Miami allows 103.0 PPG at home. Both teams are also off upset wins; Dallas in Chicago and Miami here at home over Houston. The Heat's win saw them score 109 and get a little bit of good fortune as the usually high-flying Rockets shot only 40% for the game. That was a break. Even though Dallas is clearly inferior offensively compared to the Rockets, they should still shoot better. In each of its last four games, including the 99-98 upset of Chicago, the Mavs have shot between 46% and 48% from the floor.

This three-game win streak that Dallas is on is their longest of the season. They beat Phoenix at a neutral site, Minnesota at home (had just played T'wolves the week earlier) and then Chicago by a single point. While they still regularly see sub-200 pt totals, this is a really low number for Miami. There have been only two games since 12.10 for the Heat that the total has been below 200 pts. Both games went Over. Each of them took place here on South Beach. While the Under is 4-0 the L4 matchups between these two teams, I think it's time for things to go the other way as totals this low don't pop up on the board every day. 10* Over Mavericks/Heat

10* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): Right now, everyone in Conference USA is chasing first place Middle Tennessee, who is probably one of the top so-called "mid majors" in the entire country. One of the three teams only one game back is Louisiana Tech and I believe the Bulldogs have the best shot out of the three to catch the Blue Raiders. They won't be playing MTSU until the end of the month (in Murfreesboro), but between then and now they have some favorable draws, including this one at home vs. Rice. While sharing the same overall record as La Tech (12-6 SU), Rice is only 2-3 SU in conference play (La Tech is 4-1). The matching overall records is a bit misleading when you consider that twice in the last month La Tech has lost a one-point game. Lay the points here.

One of those one-point losses for La Tech came the last time they played here in Ruston as they fell 69-68 to UTSA as 16.5-pt favorites. Since then, they've rattled off consecutive victories on the road over Charlotte and Old Dominion. The latter came Saturday as short one-point underdogs. The Bulldogs shot a blistering 56.8% from the floor and while that will be difficult to match here, Rice is not good defensively as they allow 76.6 PPG on the road, including better than 40% three-point shooting! Despite the shocking loss to UTSA two Saturdays ago, La Tech is still 9-2 SU in Ruston and outscoring opponents here by an average of 20.6 points per game. They average over 80 PPG while giving up just 58.9. Perhaps the three-point line will be the difference here as at home, La Tech is allowing its opponents to shoot only 29.4% from behind the arc.

Rice has already played Middle Tennessee, at home, and lost 80-77. That was a pretty admirable showing back on 1.5, but now for the first time in 17 days the Owls have to hit the road. They avoided what would have been an 0-3 home stand w/ a 101-79 thrashing of North Texas on Saturday. To be clear, North Texas is very bad. I mentioned earlier that La Tech shot 56.8% from the floor in their last game. Well, they were at 61.2% the game before that. So Rice's porous defense is in trouble here. La Tech is actually one of only 10 teams in the country currently ranked in the top 50 in FG% offense and defense. What made Saturday's shooting so impressive is that ODU came in ranked fourth nationally in points allowed! 10* Louisiana Tech

8* Iowa (7:00 ET): For a third consecutive season, Maryland has started the season at 15-2 (SU) or better. This year's squad is now 16-2 SU after going to Illinois on Saturday and "upsetting" the slightly favored Illini (line was Maryland +3.5), 62-56. It was the Terps' third straight outright win as an underdog here in Big 10 play. That runs their record to an impressive 6-0 ATS as a dog this season! But, as we'll see, this has been quite the fortunate team so far in 2016-17. Meanwhile, we cannot say the same for Iowa, who is off an awful 35-point road loss to Northwestern on Saturday. What made that defeat particularly frustrating is the Hawkeyes were coming off an impressive upset of Purdue earlier in the week. I'll call for a bounce back here.

Though 16-2 straight up, Maryland has had plenty of close calls go their way. Eight wins have come by six points or less, including the last two. They also won at Michigan 77-70 on January 7th as eight-point underdogs. They followed that up w/ a home win over Indiana, 75-72, as 1.5-pt dogs. Turnover margin and free throw attempts, both roughly a 2:1 margin in favor of the Terrapins, were the keys there. Saturday in Illinois saw them come from behind to win. They were able to dominate the paint and the fact the Illini went scoreless for seven minutes in the second half was key as well. As good as Maryland likely feels about itself right now, this is their third time playing on the road in the L4 games. They continue to be w/o two players in the rotation - Dion Wiley and Michal Cekovsky.

Fran McCaffery is infamously one of the more ornery coaches in the country, so I'm assuming he blew his gasket following his team's loss in Evanston Saturday. Nothing went right for the Hawkeyes as they shot just 35.3% from the floor while allowing Northwestern to shoot 59.7%. There's virtually no way that they'll face such a lopsided shooting discrepancy again here. Remember, Iowa beat Purdue on this floor last week. I don't care what the standings say; Purdue is a better team than Maryland. The Hawkeyes shot 56.7% from the floor in that game. They average 88.7 PPG at home for the year. Peter Jok, who leads the Big 10 in scoring, is off a season-low four points in the last game. He'll lead the rebound tonight. 8* Iowa

8* Oral Roberts (8:00 ET): Last Thursday, Oral Roberts won for the 1st time in Summit League play, downing South Dakota State 94-88 as five-point home favorites. They followed that up by losing on Saturday, here at home, to IUPUI. The final score Saturday was 91-85 w/ ORU being a slight (3.5-point) favorite and it was the first time in 11 matchups the Golden Eagles lost to IUPUI. At first blush, it might seem curious to find a team w/ a 5-14 SU record favored yet again, but take note that this is actually the fourth consecutive game that Oral Roberts has been laying points. While just 1-2 ATS previously, the oddsmakers are really saying something about South Dakota w/ this line. What they're saying is the Coyotes aren't very good. Lay the short number.

Now South Dakota has been finding plenty of success here in Summit League play. In fact, they're 6-0 against the spread in league games thus far. But they've gotten to play the L3 games all at home. Saturday saw them overcome 37.3% shooting to defeat Ft. Wayne 66-63 as 2.5-point dogs. That score is VERY low-scoring by Summit League standards and the Coyotes are highly unlikely to prevail again tonight were they to shoot the ball so poorly. Oral Roberts comes in averaging 82.3 PPG at home and is off B2B games where they shot 50%. Saturday against Ft. Wayne, South Dakota got a career-best 30 points from Matt Mooney and enjoyed a 20-8 edge in FT's made. Those numbers likely won't repeat themselves here. The Coyotes also actually had to rally back from an eight-point halftime deficit in that game.

Oral Roberts will have to shore things up defensively as three of their previous four opponents have shot 52% or better from the floor. Fortunately, South Dakota is one of the weaker teams offensively in the Summit League. Also, this being a home game for Oral Roberts is huge. While they're an unsightly 0-9 SU on the road, they're 5-2 at home. South Dakota is just 3-5 SU on the road (9-1 at home). It should be noted that Oral Roberts' won loss record is a bit misleading as according to RPI, it's been one of the 10 toughest in the country. This is also a triple revenge spot as South Dakota managed to take both meetings last year and the second of the 2014-15 season. 8* Oral Roberts

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): So often, we find NBA teams playing in the second game of a back to back getting undervalued by the oddsmakers and public alike. That certainly appears to be the case tonight w/ unrested Toronto traveling to Philadelphia. Last night, the Raptors prevailed in Brooklyn, 119-109, which depending on when you bet the game could have either been an ATS win or loss. The 76ers have moved past the Nets in my own personal rankings, but they're not that much better and thus I feel they are getting way too much "credit" in this spot. It could be the fact that they're 7-1 ATS L8 games or simply that Toronto played last night. But, whatever the reason, I'll lay the points.

Toronto has won and covered four straight itself, all against Atlantic Division foes. They've beaten Brooklyn twice, Boston and the Knicks. That leaves only Philly to complete the sweep. Certainly, the Raptors have had no problems beating up on division foes all year as they're 9-0 SU (8-1 ATS) vs. the rest of the Atlantic w/ an average margin of victory of +13.1 points per game. Going back to the start of the 2014-15 season, the Raptors are a pretty amazing 34-7 SU vs. division foes. Philadelphia is the one in particular they've dominated, going a perfect 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. They've averaged 122.5 PPG in a pair of wins over them earlier this season. Given that Toronto is third in the league in net efficiency rating (1st offensively), it is really shocking that this line isn't higher. The Raptors have been favored by at least five in each of their previous four games and again, covered the spread every time.

The 76ers are not only 7-1 ATS their last eight games, but they've also won straight up SIX times during this stretch. It's clearly the best basketball we've seen from this franchise in a long time. Monday afternoon, they surprised Milwaukee w/ a 113-104 upset as 8.5-pt dogs. But, make no mistake about it, they are still one of the worst teams in the league. Especially on the offensive end where they are the ONLY team in the league currently averaging less than a point per possession. So w/ Toronto being #1 in offensive efficiency, this looks like a bad matchup. Another bad matchup here (from the 76ers' perspective) lies at the points guard position. The Raptors gave Kyle Lowry the night off yday, so he'll be rested here. Meanwhile, Philly is still w/o TJ McConnell. 10* Toronto

10* South Dakota State (7:00 ET): From a bettors' perspective, there are obviously two desirable outcomes when taking an underdog. One is they can simply cover the spread. The other is winning straight up. But don't tell any of that the few brave enough to call themselves "South Dakota State backers" this season. The Jackrabbits are an unfathomable 0-10 against the spread when getting points. Overall, they're 3-14 at the betting window, which is quite miserable, but that also means the record as a favorite is actually 3-4. Tonight, they find themselves in the "dreaded" underdog role again, but I'll step in and take them w/ what I feel is an inflated number.

The opponent here is IUPUI, who didn't need the points (+3.5) in pulling off a minor upset at Oral Roberts on Saturday. One of the big reasons I like South Dakota State in this spot is that they've been off since Thursday. That gives them two extra days to prepare here. Prior to beating Oral Roberts, IUPUI had dropped three straight Summit League contests, including an outright loss here at home exactly one week ago to Nebraska-Omaha. Saturday was a big win for the Jaguars as it snapped a 10-game losing streak to Oral Roberts. I cannot see them shooting the ball as well tonight as they did on Saturday when they made 54% of their total field goal attempts.

Neither of these teams are good defensively, so that's another reason why the points look so attractive. IUPUI allows 77.3 points per game while South Dakota State allows 77.9. This will be the most points that SDSU has gotten in any conference game thus far. I think it's important to note that their last three losses have all been by eight points or less. Having failed to cover six straight games, there's now some value on the Jackrabbits. Over the last two seasons, they were favored to beat IUPUI in all four meetings (went 3-1 SU/ATS), so being the underdog is new territory here. The added time off should pay dividends. Over the L3 seasons, they are 7-3 SU when playing w/ five or six days rest. IUPUI has allowed three of its last four opponents to shoot at least 50% from the floor, so expect SDSU to find success offensively tonight. 10* South Dakota State

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): I figured that it would be pretty rare to find the Lakers favored. But, in fact, this will be the 11th time its happened this season. While that may not seem like a lot (it's only 25% of their total games played), the fact that this is one of the worst teams in the league suggests they've somehow been overvalued. But I don't believe that to be the case here tonight as they welcome in a Nuggets team that quite frankly isn't very good either. Denver is feeling a "mile high" here after B2B wins over Indiana and Orlando where they tallied 265 total pts. The Lakers defense may give me pause, but catching the Nuggets in the second game of a back to back is advantageous. Lay the points.

The Lakers come into this game as losers of four straight. Three of those losses have been by double digits. But they were at least close Saturday vs. Detroit, losing by just five. I was actually on the Pistons there and they covered the short number. While the defense has never been great for this team all season, it was the lack of offense that hurt them against Detroit. For the fourth straight time, they failed to score 100 pts. But that should change here against a foe that is alongside them among the worst defensive teams in the league. Denver actually gives up MORE points per game than the Lakers at 111.2. Only Brooklyn and Phoenix are allowing more PPG currently.

The Nuggets have been lights out offensively these L2 games. They shot almost 58% overall against the Pacers and Magic and while that sounds troubling for a young Lakers team that often struggles to defend, the fact is I do not believe for a second that Denver can sustain its recent offensive production. Nor do I believe they will be able to sustain a current six-game win streak here at Staples Center (when facing the Lakers). In addition to playing w/o rest, making the Nuggets' task tougher tonight will be the absence of starting SG Gary Harris, who sprained his ankle in last night's win. Do I often stump for teams being undervalued in the second game of a back to back? Yes, but Denver is just 1-6 SU when playing w/o rest this season. 10* LA Lakers

8* Iona (7:00 ET): The Gaels are looking to rebound from yet another surprising MAAC loss here. Saturday saw them go down as seven-point road favorites, in overtime, to lowly Quinnipiac. They're on the road again Tuesday, but laying a shorter number against a Manhattan team that's off a close win over Rider here at home. The Jaspers were able to win Friday despite the absence of one key reserve and preseason MAAC second-teamer Rich Williams, who has yet to play at all this season. These conference rivals are obviously no strangers to one another having met five times over the previous two seasons. While Manhattan was able to pull an upset back in the 2015 MAAC Tourney, Iona has won all four regular season matchups. I'll lay the short number here.

The big reason Manhattan was able to win on Friday was that they got a career-best 35 points from Zane Waterman. While Waterman is the Jaspers' leading scorer, that kind of production probably cannot be counted upon for a second straight game. While nether team shot the ball well Friday, Manhattan was able to beat Rider due in large part to a +11 edge in FT's made. Also, it was their second straight game having to rally from a halftime deficit at home. Last Tuesday they were behind Niagara at the break before coming out and shooting a blistering 58.2% as a team in the 2H. Defense remains an issue for the Jaspers as they are giving up 78.6 points per game. They were also outrebounded by Rider on Friday.

Iona certainly is no stranger to playing on the road. In fact, they've played only FIVE home games thus far. Could fatigue be setting in? Possibly, but I don't think the spot tonight will be too much to overcome for the Gaels. They blew a late second half lead against Quinnipiac, who by the way also beat Manhattan already. It also didn't help that Iona shot only 7 of 23 from three-point range. Things really fell apart in OT, but considering the team still averages over 78 PPG for the season, scoring points should NOT be an issue tonight. With only two double digit scorers on its roster, Manhattan should have a tough time keeping up here. 8* Iona

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): Both MAC West rivals will be looking to rebound from back to back losses here, but the situations may not be as similar as you think. Whereas Toledo is off two straight losses on the road, BG just dropped a pair at home and by larger margins. Now the Falcons are the road team and it's tough to like their chances after watching them score just 52 and 53 points in those consecutive defeats. Toledo was actually a road favorite in both of its losses last week, at Western and Central Michigan, so it looks like the market may be short-changing them a bit for this home date. They swept Bowling Green last year. Lay the points.

Last Tuesday, Bowling Green was absolutely destroyed by Eastern Michigan, 81-53. Though for the 1st half that game was relatively close, the numbers still "tell the story" and that's they allowed EMU to shoot better than 58 percent from the floor (!) while making only 33% of their own attempts. It wasn't quite as ugly Saturday vs. Northern Illinois, but the Falcons still lost a pick 'em game at home by 17 pts. It's really hard to like their chances going out on the road where they're 1-6 SU this season. That one win did come in MAC play, but at Ball State, a significantly weaker opponent than what they'll face here. They've lost five straight times to their I-75 rival and last won here in Toledo back in 2011.

Defense was a major issue for Toledo last week, but the Rockets should simply have too much firepower tonight. Incredibly, Western Michigan shot 70% against the Rockets last Tuesday. No opponent will shoot that high of a percentage against them the rest of the year. Over the weekend, not once did they lead at Central Michigan, giving up 96 pts in the process. Falling behind 11-0 out of the gate really doomed them there. But this is a team that's still 7-1 SU at home this year, outscoring visiting teams by an impressive margin of 15.6 points per game. Given that BGSU just scored 52 and 53 points in its two games LW, I don't think defense will be an issue for Toledo tonight.  8* Toledo

10* Golden State (8:05 ET): Both of LY's NBA Finalists snapped six-game ATS losing streaks their last time out. Cleveland won 120-108 at Sacramento while Golden State blew out Detroit 127-107 here at home. But, without a doubt, the streak that the Dubs are more concerned with here is their four straight losses to the Cavaliers. Three of those infamously took place in LY's Finals. The most recent was on X-Mas Day as they blew a double digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost by one, again done in by Kyrie Irving. But this go-around, the situation greatly favors them. Not only have they had one extra day to prepare compared to Cleveland, but the Cavs are also wrapping up a six-game road trip here. Lay the points.

The Warriors might be 1-6 ATS their L7 games, but being a double-digit fave in every time has played a large role in that. The only loss that they've suffered since Christmas was a game vs. Memphis where they blew a 19-pt fourth quarter lead. Certainly, you have to imagine this a matchup where they will not be lacking for motivation. Last year on MLK Day, they destroyed the Cavaliers (in Cleveland) 132-98. Since taking that 3-1 lead in LY's Finals, they are 0-4 SU/ATS vs. the Cavs. But with the addition of Kevin Durant this year, the Dubs may even be stronger than they were last season. A big difference moving forward is that they will not be burdened w/ the silly chase of a relatively meaningless regular season wins record. Not only are the Warriors #2 in offensive efficiency currently, they are #2 defensively as well!

Cleveland has major depth issues going on right now (no backup point guard, no JR Smith) and has really slipped defensively this year. While they actually give up slightly less points per game, in terms of points per possession, the Cavs are clearly inferior. Whereas the Warriors rank #2 in defensive efficiency, the Cavs are only tied for 12th. LeBron and company are also just 11-7 SU/7-11 ATS on the road this year. Tonight marks the most rest that Golden State has had coming into any game all season! When these teams met on X-Mas, the Warriors were playing their third road game in four nights out East. Now, the proverbial shoe is on the other foot. 10* Golden State

8* UL Monroe (8:00 ET): This is a very tough spot for favored Georgia Southern. They are coming off a huge win at UL Lafayette, 81-76 as nine-point underdogs. The win leaves the Eagles as the Sun Belt's lone unbeaten in conference play (4-0). Tonight, they hit the road again (second road game in three days!) to play the only SBC team w/o a win in league play. That would be UL Monroe. But please do not make the mistake of discounting the Warhawks chances in this one (I'm certainly not!). While 0-4 SU in league play thus far, three of those losses have been quite close, including one they just suffered here at home in overtime to Georgia State on Saturday. Incredibly, that was their third OT loss already this season (two in conf play!). I think it's time for this team to break through w/ an upset. Take the points.

The Warhawks had not lost at home before Saturday. Had their shooting not gone ice cold in overtime, perhaps they would still be unbeaten. I have to admit that I am a little concerned about the fact the team is shooting just 37.9% from the floor in conference play. But the Georgia State game was the first one that took place at home. Here at Fant-Ewing Coliseum, the Warhawks are shooting better than 50% for the year including 45% from three-point range. So, I'll call for a big bounce back offensively here. Last season, they beat Ga Southern on this floor, 83-76, shooting 54.1%. Their home ATS record is 17-9 the L3 seasons.

Beating the team that's perceived as the Sun Belt's best (UL Lafayette) was huge for Georgia Southern. It was their fifth win in a row and seventh in the last eight games overall. The only loss during the stretch came by just two points at Hampton. However, the last three wins all have been by five points or less and they've given up an average of 79 points per game. That's a difficult, if not impossible, way to sustain success. They had to rally back from a halftime deficit to defeat LA Lafayette. It was a 51-point effort in the second half, something that's hard to come by. Two keys to the Eagles pulling that upset were a) LA Lafayette going only 3 of 18 from three-point range and b) GSU making 16 more free throws. 8* UL Monroe

8* Xavier (2:00 ET): This is obviously a very big game in the Big East w/ the two of the top teams in the conference colliding. As far as "who's hotter" coming into this afternoon's clash, there is no debate. Creighton is 17-1 SU this year (only loss to Villanova) and went the "tune up" route on Saturday, hosting non-DI Truman State, whom they annihilated 101-69. Meanwhile, Xavier had to go to Butler and lost a close one, 83-78 as four-point dogs. That followed another road loss, 79-54 to Villanova. That's a tough stretch for any team, so the fact the Musketeers went 0-2 is of no real concern to me. They're 9-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 18.9 points per game so far. Lay the points.

Creighton is certainly no slouch. The Blue Jays will likely find themsleves in the top 7 when the new polls come out later today. If you're a regular of mine, then you're already aware of my lack of regard for the pollsters. I do not think Creighton is a top seven team in the country. They are top 20 for sure, but not top 10. When searching for a "best win" this year, Wisconsin early in the year and Butler last week both come to mind. But those came in Omaha. Because they're 12-4 ATS overall, I feel they're a little overvalued right now. Remember that they are still w/o senior center Zach Hanson. The team is shooting remarkably well so far (53.5 FG%), but Xavier's defense will present the toughest matchup since Villanova. 

The Musketeers could very well drop out of the Top 25 due to the B2B losses, but IMO they are still Top 25 worthy. Before the last week, they'd lost only two games and one of them was at Baylor, who (for now) is #1 in the country. The other loss came by two at Colorado. While the final score says they lost by 25 at 'Nova, note that was a close game at halftime. They led Butler at the half (by six) Saturday before another second half defensive meltdown. The fact that the Musketeers allow just 61.2 PPG at home tells me we won't have that same issue this afternoon. Point guard Edward Sumner is listed as probable to play, so don't worry about that. I look for Xavier to snap a four-game ATS (2-2 SU) losing skid to Creighton here. 8* Xavier

8* Detroit (9:35 ET): Call me crazy, but I feel that Pistons HC Stan Van Gundy could be in some real trouble if his team were to lose tonight. Fortunately for SVG, the opponent here is the lowly Lakers. Detroit, expected to be a bit of a breakout team in the East this year, is instead languishing at six games below .500 and three games back of the eighth place team. Of course, that would be an enviable position as far as the Lakers are concerned. After a surprisingly all right start to the season, they're exactly where we expected them to be and that's at the bottom of the standings. I have only two teams in the entire league rated worse in my own power rankings and those are Philadelphia and Brooklyn. Lay the short number here.

Sometime right before X-Mas, it all started going very badly for the Pistons. They've lost 11 of 15 overall. One of those four wins came against Cleveland, the day after X-Mas (Cavs had just beaten Golden State) and they didn't have to face LeBron James. Their only two wins since we flipped the calendar to 2017 both came by exactly one point. So you might feel as if this is not a prime candidate to be laying points with right now, but fortunately the number is short and the opponent is the Lakers. Los Angeles also has just four wins in its L15 games and they've lost three straight, all in blowout fashion. Saturday afternoon, it was 113-97 to the Clippers. They are just 3-6 SU this year when playing in the second game of a back to back.

Detroit is wrapping up a five-game West Coast swing here, but at least has the edge in rest. Friday went very poorly for them in Utah (lost 110-77), but that result SHOULD have the players eager to atone. It also helps that they'll be facing the worst defensive team in the league on a per possession basis. Ranking 30th in defensive efficiency, LA is giving up 110.3 points per game for the year. The Pistons defensive numbers have slipped of late, but they are still "miles ahead" of the Lakers. After they shot below 40% from the floor on Friday, I'll call for Detroit to have one of its stronger offensive efforts in some time tonight. They are 30-14 ATS L44 games w/ a total of 210 or higher. 8* Detroit

10* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): What has happened to Northern Iowa this year? Ben Jacobson's proud program is in a massive tailspin right now as they've lost seven in a row, the last five of which have come in Missouri Valley play (the others were to Iowa and North Carolina). Results at the betting window have been even worse as not only have the Panthers failed to cover the spread in all seven of those SU losses, they're also 3-12 ATS for the year! But help comes today in the form of MVC rival Drake, who UNI always seems to beat up on. Drake is 0-8 SU on the road this year and I think we're getting this matchup at a great price due to Drake having pulled a couple of surprising upsets (at home) in the last week. Lay the points.

Being favored has not treated Northern Iowa well this year as they're just 1-6 ATS in the role, losing outright five times. The most recent instance came Wednesday at Bradley as they fell 72-61 as two-point chalk. The Panthers shot the ball horrifically (33.9% for the game) while at the same time allowing the Braves to connect on 55.1% of their FG attempts. Such a wide shooting disparity is pretty rare and I'd be surprised if we saw anything like that againt for UNI the rest of the season. Luckily for them, this game is at home where they are allowing only 61.2 points per game for the season. Their own scoring average rises (to 69.7 PPG) here in Cedar Falls. Facing a team that's allowed an average of 83.4 PPG in conference play should remedy some of the offensive woes we've seen recently.

As mentioned earlier, Drake has pulled a couple of upsets over the past week. First, they beat Evansville 88-76 as 3.5-pt dogs. Then it was an 87-70 win over Indiana State (were +1) on Wednesday. But I think that most would still conclude that the Bulldogs are still one of the worst teams in the MVC. They have never had much success vs. Northern Iowa, going just 13-27 ATS L40 meetings, and the last two seasons have produced four double digit losses. They really benefited from Indiana State shooting only 32.4% on Wednesday. Even w/o Jeremy Morgan, I expect Northern Iowa to (finally!) get back on track in this one. 10* Northern Iowa

10* Milwaukee (3:05 ET): Atlanta saw its seven-game win streak come to an end Friday as they lost at home to Boston, 103-101 as 3.5-pt favorites. The Celtics were my *10* Game of the Week in that spot. Seven game win streaks are certainly "hard to come by," but if you were w/ me on Friday's play, then you're already aware of the "holes" I was able to poke in the Hawks' recent ended streak. Their four-game road trip was about as easy as it gets w/ visits to Orlando, New Orleans, Dallas and Brooklyn. While still fourth in the East, Atlanta's point differential and efficiency rating actually both place sixth. One of the teams ahead of them is this afternoon's opponent, Milwaukee. The better team is getting points in this instance.

The Bucks showed me something in not experiencing a letdown against Miami Friday night. After all, it would have only been natural seeing as they were off a win at San Antonio on Tuesday. Led by sure-fire All Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee has really morphed into a good team and they are 8-5 ATS this year when taking on opponents that have a winning record. They jumped on Miami right away Friday night, scoring 42 points in the first quarter. They led by 17 going into the fourth quarter. What's notable from the win is Antetokounmpo didn't lead the team in points, rebounds or assists (a real rarity!). If this team can win when their star isn't at his best (he's been sick recently), that's a bad sign for the rest of the Conference.

The Bucks are 0-2 SU/ATS this year vs. the Hawks, but in the last meeting they blew a 20-point halftime lead at home. Both games were decided by three points or less. I'm saying that the third time will be the charm here for Milwaukee as they are better than Atlanta in both per game point differential (+2.2 vs. +0.0) and net efficiency rating (+2.9 vs. +0.4). To me, even w/ Atlanta's home court edge, the line here should be a pick 'em. The fact that we are getting any points at all w/ what I consider to be the better team is an absolute steal. The Bucks are a top eight team in offensive efficiency and should take advantage of a Hawks team giving up 104.9 PPG at home. 10* Milwaukee

8* Rhode Island (2:30 ET): The two teams involved here brought me very different results in their respective last games. UMass treated me to a nice outright win (as 7-pt home dogs) hosting Dayton. But Rhode Island fell victim to a very hot-shooting LaSalle team and lost outright (as 12-pt home favorites). That was the Rams's second straight outright loss as they'd previously lost at Dayton (as a one-point favorite). Thus, there should be a real "sense of urgency" w/ the Rhodies this afternoon. Before Thursday, they had not dropped a home game and I'll call for them to bounce back w/ a big double digit win here. Lay the points.

UMass has not fared particularly well in "true" road games thus far. They've won only two out of six and those wins were against Holy Cross and Georgia Southern. Prior to upsetting Dayton, the Minutemen were 0-3 in Atlantic 10 play, including losses at George Mason and VCU. They also lost at home to St. Bonaventure. That upset of Dayton was largely made possible by the Flyers shooting a horrid 31.7% from the floor. It certainly helped drawing them off their big win over Rhode Island. Holding a 34-27 halftime lead proved to be the difference. Also, Dayton has not won in Amherst since 2004. So while kudos should be given to the Minutemen for what they were able to pull off Wednesday (I did have them remember!), the fact is this really isn't that great of a team and they're probably in store for a letdown. Off their previous upset win (at Ga Southern), they would go on to lose the home game to St. Bonaventure their next time out. 

This is a really important game for Rhode Island, who cannot afford to lose a third straight conference game. Again, they were 8-0 SU at home before losing to LaSalle on Thursday. The Explorers couldn't miss as they shot a ridiculous 57.8% for the game compared to only 39.4% for the Rams. The 12-point loss was URI's largest of the season. I believe this team is better than it's 10-6 SU overall record as four of the losses have been by five points or less and another was to Duke. They did beat a very good Cincinnati team here at home earlier in the season. I can't believe that at home Rhode Island was -22 in FT attempts compared to LaSalle. UMass, who is below 30% for the year from three-point range, won't shoot the ball nearly as well. Three-point shooting is typically a difference maker for the Rams at home as they make 37.3% while allowing opponents to shoot 27.1%. They are +14.8 PPG at the Ryan Center. 8* Rhode Island

10* Pepperdine (8:00 ET): November and December were a "tale of two months" for Pepperdine. They didn't leave campus once in November and went a more than respectable 4-3 SU. December was a different story. After opening w/ a home date against Belmont (top team in the OVC), the Waves rode out 2016 with six consecutive road games. They lost all of them, only covering as 10-point dogs at Montana. They did beat Loyola Marymount in the first game of '17, but have since lost to San Diego and Pacific. And the news hasn't gotten any better in the last 24 hours as news broke they could continue to be short-handed w/ Knox Hellums and Ryan Keenan possibly out (undisclosed). But this will be Santa Clara's second road game in three nights, traditionally a terrible spot. Take the points.

Pepperdine still has three double digits scorers, most notably LaMond Murray Jr, who is averaging 19.4 points per game. You can trace the team's downfall to the loss of PG Amadi Udenyi as they've won only once w/o him. But grad transfer Chris Reyes has managed to step up (15.2 PPG) and so has Jeremy Major, a career 1,000+ point scorer. The team's 38.1% shooting from three-point range currently stands as the best for an Waves team since '03. Unfortunately, opponents have not been missing many attempts from behind the arc, currently at 42%, one of the highest percentages allowed in the entire country. You have to figure that number will start to come down, if not only because it has to.

While Pepperdine lost a close one at Pacific on Thursday, Santa Clara won by an even slimmer margin at San Diego. It was 59-57 for the Broncos, who just missed out on covering as 2.5-pt faves. A made layup w/ just over one minute remaining ended up as the GW basket. Over the final eight minutes, the margin was never greater than three for either side. This just won't be Santa Clara's second road game in three nights, it's also their third straight overall. They shot poorly last Saturday at Loyola Marymount (the only WCC team Pepperdine has beaten!) as in 36.8% overall and lost. Scoring only 59 points Thursday does not lead me to conclude that this is a team that should be laying points on the conference road. 10* Pepperdine

10* St. Joe's (12:30 ET): St. Joe's was the top ATS team in the country last year, at least among those that regularly play lined games. They finished 24-11 ATS (28-8 SU). Somewhat predictably, they've regressed in 2016-17, starting just 5-9 vs. the number after losing here at home to George Mason (75-67 as four-point chalk) back on Tuesday. Richmond is the next team to invade Hagan Arena and I do not anticipate this venture being a successful one for the Spiders. Sure, they come in riding a four-game win streak, including upsets of Dayton and George Washington on the road. But home games w/ Fordham and St. Bonaventure were certainly advantageous. The road team won both meetings last season, so it's naturally time for the host to return the favor.

St. Joe's has suffered a major blow w/ the loss of leading scorer Shavar Newkirk (20.5 PPG) for the rest of the season. But three players scored 16+ in the surprise loss to George Mason on Tuesday. I believe Newkirk's lost production can be made up for, specifically by James Demery and Lamarr Kimble. Also, here at home, the Hawks are typically potent offensively. So far, they are averaging 76.2 PPG here in Philly. While it's been a so-so start in the A-10 (just 2-2 SU), they did beat GW here. In the loss to George Mason, they led at halftime and into the second half. It was rare in that they allowed the opponent to shoot 50% while only shooting 42.2% themselves, including an awful 5 of 21 from theee-point range. It also didn't help that they were outscored by eight, the difference in the game, from the FT line. I guarantee we won't be seeing a repeat of those numbers here this afternoon. 

Richmond is unbeaten in A-10 play and certainly playing well. They've been between 77 and 82 points in each of their four league wins, but still only outscored those teams by 8.5 PPG, even after the 78-61 win over St. Bonaventure earlier in the week. This is the first EVER - as in program history - that they have started 4-0 SU in A-10 play. However, they actually trailed the Bonnies at halftime before exploding for 51 pts in the final 20 minutes. 10* St. Joe's

8* Virginia (12:00 ET): I routinely clown on the polls only because they are often a very poor guide for evaluating the top teams. Case in point; my play earlier this week against #1 Baylor, who no reasonable mind truly believed was the best team in the country. Even though the Bears were unbeaten, they were underdogs in Morgantown and subsequently got clobbered 89-68 by WVU. Here, it's a similar situation, only in reverse. Virginia is currently ranked #19, but the idea that there are 18 teams better than Tony Bennett's Hoos is just ludicrous. No doubt Clemson will be highly motivated here, at home and looking to break a three-game losing streak. But this number is just way too short. Lay the points.

Virginia was on its own losing streak (two games) before routing Wake Forest on Sunday, 79-62 as 12-pt chalk. The Cavs shot 49.1% overall from the floor, including a blistering 9 of 19 from three-point range. Of course, there was also their trademark defense, which held Wake to 40.4% overall and 6 of 21 from three-point range. In case you were unaware, UVA ranks 4th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and allows just 52.1 points per game, fewest in the country. In their two recent losses, they gave up more than that, including an uncharacteristic 88 in their last road game, at Pitt. But I view that as "blip" on the radar, nothing more. The Cavs also have the edge here in that they've been off for five days while Clemson is playing for the second time in three days. The last time the Hoos had this much time off, they won their next game by 40 points! 

Clemson is 7-1 SU in Death Valley where the students are probably still partying over last Monday's College Football Playoff. The Tigers allow just 64.1 PPG at home, but the L3 games have seen them allow more than that YTD average (79.7). That includes an 89-86 home loss to North Carolina. Over the last week, they've lost at both Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. They lost by double digits, as 10-pt favorites, Thursday in Atlanta (at Ga Tech). Clemson fans got to cheer for one big win this week; history will not repeat itself here.  8* Virginia

8* Sacramento (10:35 ET): Cleveland is not playing well right now, which should be readily apparent by the fact the World Champs are on a six-game ATS losing skid in the New Year. They've also lost three of those games outright, including the L2, at Utah and Portland in a set of back to backs. Before that, they struggled to put away low-level teams such as Brooklyn and Phoenix. So this has hardly been a productive road trip for LeBron and company and w/ this being the fifth game in eight days (and Golden State looming on MLK Day), even a visit to Sacramento may not turn things around. The Kings are off a win Tuesday night as they beat Detroit 100-94, a game where I cashed the Under. Take the points here.

Before beating the Pistons, Sacramento was able to stay within the number against Golden State here at home. By comparison to that line (+11.5), this one appears to be too low. Unlike road-weary Cleveland, the Kings should be fine situationally as they've been off for two days and this will be their fifth straight home game (seven-game stand). At home, Sacramento has generally been competitive. They've been outscored here by only 1.0 PPG and when on two days' rest this year, they are 4-1 SU w/ a scoring margin of +8.2 PPG.

Cleveland is just 4-12 ATS vs. teams w/ a losing record this year and their overall ATS record is near the bottom of the league. Part of the issue is that team defensive has fallen off a cliff this year as the Cavs are just middle of the road in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. They are giving up 104.4 PPG on the road. Even with the recent addition of Kyle Korver, depth remains a concern as this team doesn't have a backup point guard and HC Ty Lue is playing a pretty short rotation. The "Big 3" of LeBron, Love and Kyrie could very well lead the team to victory tonight, but it won't be by the margin the oddsmakers are asking for here. 8* Sacramento

10* Boston (8:05 ET): The Eastern Conference has clearly taken shape w/ two teams (Cleveland, Toronto) on top and 3-4 (Brooklyn, Philly, Miami and probably Orlando) off the pace. Everyone else is bunched up in the middle. Boston was supposed to be Cleveland's top challenger this year and they are currently third. Right behind them, sitting in fourth, is Atlanta. The Hawks got off to a good start this year, but then had a terrible finish to November, leaving them treading water. But all of a sudden they've won seven straight, covering the spread in the last six. But while the Celtics can justify their place in the East pecking order, I view Atlanta as a bit overrated. Until their last game, they'd been outscored over the course of the season. The better team is getting points here.

The Hawks just swept a four-game road trip, but it was hardly a daunting trip. The four teams they beat - Orlando, New Orleans, Dallas and Brooklyn - all have win percentages of .400 or below. Here at home, they did upset San Antonio on New Year's Day. But w/ New York and Detroit being the other victims, that's just one winning team out of seven opponents that the Hawks have beaten during this streak. This will be their first time playing the Celtics since eliminating them in six games in LY's playoffs. That should clearly have Boston motivated here. The C's have lost six straight times in Atlanta, but are 13-6 ATS in road games this season.

Despite being a bit short-handed, Boston has won 11 of 14, the only losses being of the close variety to OKC, Cleveland and Toronto. After losing to the Raptors Tuesday, there was an immediate bounce back Wednesday at home vs. Washington. They beat the Wizards 117-108 as 5.5-pt chalk. Isaiah Thomas led the way (again) w/ 38 points as the team shot better than 50 percent from the floor. The former Hawk, Al Horford also continues to play well. Remember, it wasn't too long ago that Atlanta appeared to be in "teardown" mode as they dealt Kyle Korver to Cleveland. While a viable contender for one of the final playoff spots in the East, the Hawks have overachieved of late, simply taking advantage of a weak slate of games. 10* Boston

8* Yale (8:00 ET): The wrong team is favored here in my estimation. Yale has yet to play an Ivy League game, but they come into 2017 as the co-favorite to win the conference, along w/ Princeton. Penn just played Princeton on Saturday and I faded the Quakers in that spot. Sure enough, they failed to cover as 8.5 pt dogs (lost 61-52). While they weren't blown out and close to covering, I still see value in going against the Quakers again tonight. It's telling that they still lost to Princeton despite holding the short-handed Tigers to just 34.7% shooting from the field. It's tempting to credit the Penn defense for some of the past shooting percentages we've seen from opponents, but really I don't think it's sustainable. Yale comes in shooting at a nice 46.9% clip for the season. Take the points.

Now, clearly, things won't be as easy for Yale as they were their last time out. On Saturday, they took on Mitchell College and won 102-46, thanks to shooting 61.5% for the game. The Bulldogs have not played a ton of lined games this year, but three of their five SU losses this year have come at the expense of Virginia, Pitt and Temple, all of those on the road. They did cover at Pitt (lost by only 5) and then they lost by only 6 at Temple. So, it's not as if they haven't been challenged. They've also gone to Washington this year and won. So far, they have managed to outscore opponents by 8.4 points per game while ranking 15th nationally in assists per game (17.8) and shooting 39.2% from three-point range. Six players average at least nine points per game w/ five of them shooting above 40% from behind the arc. 

  One thing is for certain and that's Yale has had Penn's number through the years. They've beaten the Quakers eight straight times (four season sweeps) and done so by an average of greater than 15 points per game. The series history only makes this line seem more curious. Offensively, Penn continues to struggle as they average only 66.9 PPG, which is 301st. They are also only 261st in rebounds per game. One has to think if their opponents start shooting better, it could be a long year for the Quakers. Yale is more than capable of shooting well. 8* Yale

8* Under Lakers/Spurs (8:35 ET): Two teams at the opposite ends of the NBA spectrum here. San Antonio isn't all that far behind Golden State for the top spot in the Western Conference, trailing by just 2.5 games. Then you have the Lakers, who are near the bottom of the West w/ a 15-27 SU record. Pop's team figures to be in a somewhat ornery mood this evening as they're coming off a 109-107 home loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Since X-Mas, the Spurs have held five of seven opponents below 100 pts and not surprisingly, they've won all five times (lost the other two). The Lakers managed only 87 pts against a Portland team which stinks defensively Tuesday and while their defense is a concern, I expect this game to have less scoring than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Take the Under.

The Spurs are just a hair behind Utah for the top spot in the league in defensive efficiency. Of course, they were #1 last year. They're allowing just 97.8 points per game this season and home games are averaging just barely above 200 PPG for them, total. So this is a bit of a high total for them. While Milwaukee (shot 52.4%) was able to come in and score 109 against them, the Spurs' previous two home games saw them allow only 82 and 85 points. The Under is 5-2 off a Spurs' loss this season.  As mentioned earlier, it was an ugly night for the Lakers offensively in Portland on Tuesday as they shot just 38.6% from the floor. They scored just 31 points in the second half.

The Over has cashed each of the L5 times these teams have met. That includes a 116-107 Spurs win in LA back in November. But tonight's O/U line is the highest one yet. San Antonio is getting LaMarcus Aldridge back tonight (missed Milwaukee game), but even so, I do not expect the team to have six different players finish up w/ double figure scoring like they did vs. the Bucks. The Spurs defense should certainly neutralize the Lakers offense and as far as the other end of the court goes, there's just no way SA will be as sharp shooting the basketball as they were in the earlier season meeting vs. the Lakers (56.4%). Time for an Under here. 8* Under Lakers/Spurs

8* Morehead State (7:00 ET): It can't be understated what a big game this is for Morehead State as they get the best team in the Ohio Valley in their gym. At home is where all six of the Eagles victories have come this year (they're 0-8 off-campus) and they are averaging a whopping 91.4 points per game here. They've experienced a lot of close losses this year (two in overtime), but come into tonight's showdown off B2B wins over Eastern Illinois and SIU Edwardsville. Belmont is 3-0 SU already in OVC play and has won eight of nine overall. But this is the start of a tough stretch for them as they'll be playing two road games in the next three days. I "smell an upset" brewing tonight down in Kentucky. Take the points.

Morehead State actually needed to rally from a slight halftime deficit to get by SIU Edwardsville in their last game. But it wound up being a 13-pt victory thanks to controlling the paint (30-22 edge in pts) and points off turnovers (19 off 22). This game will be broadcast on ESPNU, so it's not an embellishment to say this will likely be the biggest regular season game of the year on campus. Home court advantage has proven vital in past meetings between these two schools w/ the host team taking seven of nine. That includes both last year. Over the L2 seasons, it's been nothing but close games between the two w/ all four meetings decided by six points or less and three decided by two points or less. Again, the home team has won every time.

Morehead State has lost all eight games in which it has been an underdog this season, but only one of those was here at home. That was to an East Tennessee State side that looks like it may win the SoCon. Meanwhile, Belmont has failed to cover the L2 times it has been road chalk, those games taking place at WI-Milwaukee (won by 6) and Austin Peay (won by 5). Something of concern for the Bruins is that they shoot just 25.7% from three-point range on the road. That will make it difficult to keep up w/ the high scoring Eagles, who shoot over 37% from long range overall. Until they scored 31 pts over the final 10 minutes Saturday vs. SE Missouri  State, Belmont was actually trailing at home. 8* Morehead State

10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): The Rams, fairly quietly, have found themselves on the fringes of the Top 25 for most of this year. However, in the latest poll (released earlier this week), they didn't even receive a single vote. That's probably due to the fact that last Friday saw them drop a home game to fellow A-10 power Dayton, 67-64. But, as I always harp on, the polls should not really be used as any reliable guide to betting College Hoops (see Baylor-WVU). URI is still a top 35 team country in my estimation (Lunardi has them in the field of 68, FWIW), which is a lot better than tonight's opponent, LaSalle, a team I've had no problem fading so far this season. I anticipate the Explorers' lack of defense will cost them another A-10 affair tonight. Lay the points.

Ironically, the last time I played against LaSalle, it was a poor effort at the offensive end that cost them. On December 30th, they were held to a season-low 55 points on 36% shooting as they lost at Dayton, 66-55. I'd previously played against them in a visit to Georgetown and there they allowed 93 pts in another double digit road loss. Defense has been the primary concern for the Explorers, even though they've responded w/ B2B wins since losing to Dayton. In the last game, as 11.5-pt home faves, they still allowed 81 points in a narrow win over Duquense. Their other win was against St. Louis. Safe to say, that those two wins came against two of the bottom three in the A-10 (along w/ Fordham). Not only is LaSalle allowing its opponents to shoot 47.3% from the floor overall, including 40% from three-point range, but they are giving up a ghastly 86.5 PPG away from home as well!

Rhode Island has dominated LaSalle the last two seasons, winning all four matchups. Three of the wins have been by double digits. At home this year, the Rams are unbeaten (8-0!), winning by an average margin 18.1 PPG. Defensively, they are stout, holding teams to just 64.2 PPG overall. Off the loss to Dayton, I expect this team to be fired up to take the floor tonight. They turned the ball over 17 times vs. Dayton, costing them a game they led for most of the first 28 minutes. This is also the best offensive team in terms of points per possession in the A-10. 10* Rhode Island

10* Southern Illinois (8:00 ET): I'm always a bit cautious when it comes to taking a team off an upset victory. Here, Southern Illinois did just go on the road and beat Missouri State 75-67 - as 9-pt underdogs - on Saturday. But the Salukis are returning to Carbondale for tonight's tilt w/ in-state rival Illinois State. Taking points again, I believe they're a strong value. This is ISU's second consecutive road game as they too are off a win; 77-58 at Indiana State. But make no mistake about it; Larry Bird wasn't playing for the Sycamores on Saturday. Illinois State may still be unbeaten in MVC play (4-0 SU), but they have a giant lookahead to conference heavyweight Wichita State (whom they get at home) on Saturday. Take the points here.

Interestingly enough, Southern Illinois beat Missouri State by a wider margin on the road than Illinois State did at home. Missouri State is a "middle of the road" team in the MVC, so they can serve as somewhat of a good barometer. Illinois State played them first, winning 74-71 (as eight-point favorites) at home, but needed overtime. That's one of only two games out of the last nine that the Redbirds have failed to cover. Three days later saw SIU go to Missouri State and record an upset. That was the Salukis' third straight win, so they come in hot as well. What was most impressive about Southern Illinois' performance on Saturday is that they took the lead five minutes into the game and never relinquished it.

Now Illinois State was definitely impressive Saturday as well. Led by a career-best 31 pts from MiKyle McIntosh, the Redbirds routed Indiana State w/ a dominant first half performance (led 47-24 at the break). But I wouldn't look for them to go 13 of 25 from three-point range again here. While the Redbirds are ninth nationally in field goal percentage defense, they will have to contend w/ a SIU team that is averaging 78.6 PPG at home. The Salukis are 8-2 SU in Carbondale so far, covering five of their six lined games here. They've also done their own strong job on the defensive end, particularly at converting opponents' turnovers into points. In seven straight games, they've scored at least 12 pts off TO's! 10* Southern Illinois

10* Over Knicks/Sixers (7:05 ET): Philadelphia has long been one of the worst offensive teams in the league. In fact, they current check in at 30th (i.e. last) in efficiency as the ONLY team to be averaging less than one point per possession. However, they've been able to score 105 or more points three times during this four-game ATS win streak of theirs, which includes three straight up victories mind you, the latest coming at the expense of Brooklyn on Sunday. Already the Sixers have topped LY's win total! I think the recent offensive surge should continue here against a Knicks team that is just awful defensively. You would have to go all the way back to 12.22 to find the last time New York did NOT give up 100+ points in a game. However, I still don't trust Philly enough to take them in this spot. Therefore, we turn to the Over as I think the Knicks will be able to score plenty here as well. 

Of course, the Knicks' offense would probably be a little more effective if they knew where the hell Derrick Rose was. Rose went M.I.A. for the team's last game, a 110-96 home loss to the Pelicans. Seriously; Rose was a "no call, no show" for work that day as the team didn't even know where he was. Phil Jackson's Knicks everybody! Regardless, with Rose in the lineup the team had scored at least 103 points in each of its previous five games. By their standards, this is a low O/U line. The Over is 4-1 this season for them, in road games, if the O/U line is between 205 and 209.5. Defensively, the Knicks are not good, which I touched on earlier. To quantify, they are 26th in efficiency and give up 111.2 PPG on the road. They've allowed 100+ pts in 16 of the L17 games.

The Sixers are no stalwart defensively either; they give up 105.9 PPG. So w/ two bad defensive teams here, there's clearly a recipe for an Over. That's the way that three of the four meetings last year went. The Atlantic Division rivals have yet to meet this year, but both are clearly improved from dreadful 2015-16 campaigns. Note that Monday, their first sub-100 point performance of the new year, saw the Knicks not only w/o Rose but leading scorer Carmelo Anthony as well by game's end. Anthony was ejected in the 3Q for arguing w/ an official. A full compliment of players from start to finish should lead to more offensive production here. 10* Over Knicks/Sixers

8* Massachusetts (7:00 ET): Dayton is a team some might consider worthy of Top 25 consideration as they have only three losses, all of them by four points or less. But I believe them to be a tad bit overvalued for tonight's venture into UMass. The Flyers are indeed "flying high" off five straight victories, the last four of which have also resulted in covers. Friday saw them down a good Rhode Island team, 67-64, as a short home dog. But this is just their third "true" road game so far and UMass will be a lot tougher than St. Bonaventure was at the start of the month. UMass will also be a desperate bunch as they've lost three straight, the last two coming on the road to George Mason and VCU. Take the points.

Prior to this three-game losing skid that they're currently on, UMass had been playing pretty well. They were 10-3 SU going into the final game of 2016, which wound up being an outright home loss to St. Bonaventure. The Minutemen were two-point favorites there and have since lost as underdogs at George Mason (86-81) and VCU (81-64). Dayton signifies a drop in class from VCU and they're getting them in Amherst, so this should be an easier game for the Minutemen. It also shapes up almost as a "must-win" since this weekend sees them traveling to Rhode Island, another game where they'll be an underdog. I'm sure the upperclassmen remember LY's lone meeting w/ Dayton, a road game which resulted in a 30-point loss. Revenge!

Dayton shot "lights out" in that lone meeting last season, finishing at 56% from the field, including 11 of 25 from three-point range. I certainly would not expect any kind of repeat of those numbers tonight. The Flyers were kind to me back on 12.30, beating LaSalle 66-55, ironically "doing it w/ defense" against an Explorers team that is really bad defensively. Since then, they've ripped St. Bonaventure for 90 points and then came the three-point win over Rhode Island. But consider they trailed the Rhodies for the first 32 minutes of that contest. While Dayton may still unbeaten in A-10 play, UMass is 4-2 ATS as a underdog this season. 8* Massachusetts

10* Under Pistons/Kings (10:35 ET): All of a sudden, Detroit has turned into an Over team w/ six straight games finishing that way. That's quite the departure from how the team both started the season (21-12-1 Under in first 34 games) and still profiles. This had been one of only three teams in the league (Utah, Memphis) to neither score nor allow 100+ points per game. The recent streak has changed that (allow & score 100.3 PPG), but I feel we've reached a "tipping point" of sorts here in this matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings. We still think of the Kings as a high-scoring outfit, but the fact is their offensive numbers are down under HC Dave Joerger as is their pace of play (considerably). Take the Under here.

In terms of "true shooting" numbers, the Pistons are among the bottom five teams in the league. They play at an even slower pace than does Sacramento (26th) and fewer possessions naturally leads to less scoring. Despite all of the outcries from HC Stan Van Gundy regarding team defense, the Pistons actually still rank in the top 10 in efficiency at that end of the floor. It wasn't that long ago that they were in the top five! When looking at their most recent result - a 125-124 win at Portland Sunday night - beware of the fact that game went into double overtime. There was a total of 37 points scored in the extra 10 minutes, which is quite a lot. Portland is also among the worst defensive teams in the league.

Sacramento has dipped to the bottom third in pace of play this season and is actually averaging only 102.3 PPG. While this might seem like a low number for them, note they just played Golden State, who is #1 in offensive efficiency. So of course the total will be lower here.  It also appears as if the offensive burden that Boogie Cousins carries for this team has become too much. According to HC Joerger, Cousins is "exhausted" and it's showed w/ him going for only a combined 55 points the L3 games, all team losses. Look for this game to be lower-scoring than expected. 10* Under Pistons/Kings

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): It takes a lot to get me to endorse the Nets, but getting this many points against a mediocre Atlanta outfit is enough to justify a play. Over the last week, there seems to be a real 180 degree turn in philosophy by the Hawks' franchise. Last week, they were putting their best player (Paul Milsap) on the market and also dealt Kyle Korver to Cleveland. But a four-game win streak seems to have changed management's idea of being "sellers" at the deadline. While they can't bring Korver back, Milsap has reportedly been taken off the market. But while the team may now find itself in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, I still look at a team w/ an efficiency rating of 0.0 as pretty pedestrian and a good fade as a road favorite. So take the points.

Brooklyn should be motivated here as they're off an embarrassing home loss to Philadelphia Sunday afternoon. While the final score says they lost by 10, they were actually up 11 at the start of the second half. Being outscored 32-16 in the third quarter was the key to the entire game as they held the Sixers below 40% shooting overall. That being the Nets' sixth straight loss aside, the team has actually been competitive here at Barclays Center w/ a 10-8 ATS record (7-11 straight up). They demonstrated that competitiveness by hanging with Cleveland Friday night, losing that game by only eight as 13.5-pt dogs. While the Nets have only one win in the L12 games overall, it was at home (against Charlotte) in almost the exact same price range as tonight.

Atlanta is looking to complete a perfect road trip here, but let's not go congratulating them too much, okay? The three teams they've beaten so far on the trip are: Orlando, New Orleans and Dallas. They did upset San Antonio, at home, on New Year's Day. But that win and the one in New Orleans both came by five points or less. There have been two previous times this season where the Hawks have been coming off three consecutive road games and both instances saw them lose the game and fail to cover. Without Korver, this team will be unable to maintain its' hot 40%+ shooting from three-point range that we've seen in the L6 games. 8* Brooklyn

8* West Virginia (7:00 ET): Baylor may be unbeaten and the new "#1" in the country. Kansas may be the standard-bearer of excellence in the conference. But, for my money, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 this year and I'm on 'em again Tuesday night in Morgantown. Though they failed to cover Saturday (by one-half point) here against TCU, it was still a nice bounce back from Bob Huggins' Mountaineers after suffering just their second loss of the season the game previous (at Texas Tech). As you can tell, the oddsmakers have little respect for the pollsters here as they've installed the supposed "#1 team in the country" as an underdog. They are correct in doing so. Lay the points.

Here at home, WVU is 9-0 SU this season (33-5 SU L38), winning by an average margin of 36.1 points per game. They only beat TCU by 12 on Saturday, but led the entire way (by 11 at half). What cost them the cover was a second half swoon where the Horned Frogs went from 13 down to tie the game. But, in the end, Huggins will take it. His trademark press forced TCU into a season-high in turnovers (18), which is the norm for WVU opponents. Last year, in a home and home sweep of Baylor, the Mountaineers surprisingly only forced 24 turnovers in the two games. But they held the Bears to 37% shooting and won both games by 11 points anyway.

I don't think anybody - besides the pollsters - really thinks Baylor is the top team in America. In fact, they are not even in my top five. Remember, coming into the year, they were picked to finish fifth - in the Big 12 - by those who supposedly know the conference. Their ascension from being unranked to #1 in the polls is impressive, but also greatly aided by the fact they've played just one "true" road game thus far, that being at Oklahoma, who is the weakest team in the league. They did win in Norman by 16, but since then it's been a pair of narrow victories, by two over Iowa State and by four vs. Oklahoma State, both at home. Kansas came into Morgantown ranked #1 in the country last year and lost. Also, WVU just destroyed the same Oklahoma State team - by 17 - in Stillwater. 8* West Virginia

10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): At first glance, Eastern Michigan hardly seems like an ideal candidate to lay points with, even a short number like this one, on the road. The Eagles are just 2-5 SU outside of Ypsilanti this season and just dropped a game there, as 7.5-pt favorites, to Buffalo on Saturday. But here they'll be faced w/ a team outside of the top 200 nationally and that's Bowling Green. The Falcons seem to be flying high off an upset of Ball State (in Muncie) on Saturday, but tonight promises to be a crash landing of sorts. Eastern Michigan will have revenge on its mind for losing LY in Ypsilanti - as 8.5-pt chalk - to the Falcons. That was a game where they dug too large a hole early (trailed by 11 at the half) to climb out of.

Prior to the loss Sunday, EMU had won three straight, all by 22 points or greater. Granted, all those games were at home. But they've actually already covered as road chalk once this year, laying a much bigger number in fact, at Detroit. As a favorite, the Eagles are 4-1 ATS this season and won 20 of 27 straight up the L3 seasons. So what went wrong Saturday? Well, for starters, they shot the ball poorly (only 36.8%). For the season, this is a team connecting at above a 45% clip. The Eagles did lead for a good portion of the game Saturday before succumbing to a late Buffalo run. It also didn't help that as the home team, EMU attempted less FT's than did Buffalo. I expect the Eagles to play better tonight. After all, this is a top 25 scoring offense in the country at 83.8 PPG.

Bowling Green pulled the upset at Ball State on Saturday as they were able to rally from a halftime deficit. Attempting 11 more free throws certainly helped. That kind of margin is certainly unusual for the road team. Also, Ball State was an abysmal 4 of 25 from three-point range. The Falcons' defense does do a good job at turning their opponents over, but EMU won't be shooting anywhere near that poorly here tonight. In fact, if anything, it will be the Eagles' trademark 2-3 zone that should "rule the day" defensively. Consider that Eastern Michigan was a nine-point favorite AT Detroit while BGSU was asked to lay the same number here at home. Not sure why the linesmakers' discrepancy has grown so much tighter in less than a month, but take advantage and lay the very short number. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): It's pretty shocking (at least to me!) that through 37 games, the T'wolves have the exact same record as do the Mavericks (11-26 SU). IMO, Minnesota has been the better team all season. Unfortunately for them, they have been unable to close out games and while the "future is bright" here, it's clear that making the playoffs is not a realistic goal, until next season. That said, I do feel that at home the T'wolves should be able to handle the Mavs tonight. Dallas came up short in what I thought would be an advantageous spot, at home vs. Atlanta Sat night, which says a lot about the current state of this team. They are not good on the road by the way; 4-15 SU getting outscored by over eight points per game.

Minnesota has been a money loser when favored (5-10 ATS) this season and their inability to string together any kind of win streak (only won B2B games once!) is largely what's doomed them. They come into tonight on a four-game losing streak, two of those losses coming by just two points. However, they did cover Saturday night in Utah, improving to 6-1 ATS when on a losing streak of 3+ games. However, to players and fans, that's a Pyrrhic victory as the team blew an 11-pt lead by scoring only 12 pts in the fourth quarter. Tonight, they not only snap the losing streak, but they cover the spread w/ room to spare. I still have faith in HC Tom Thibodeau to turn this thing around as he has THREE 20+ pt scorers - Karl Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine.

Dallas has not been healthy for much of this season. But even though they are now, they've still lost three of four, including an ugly 82-point effort Saturday at home vs. Atlanta. That followed an outright loss (again at home) to Phoenix. This is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league and on the road they average only 94.2 points per game. Saturday marked the sixth time this year that they've scored 85 points or less. They are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS off the previous five. This is a big revenge game for the T'wolves as well as they lost all four H2H meetings vs. Dallas last season. 8* Minnesota

8* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): This is a triple revenge spot for Ga Southern, who lost three times (including Sun Belt tourney) to South Alabama last year. Plus, this is the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot for USA, who I would rate as the worst overall team in the league. That combination of factors has me laying the points Monday night. Ga Southern has won five of its last six, the only loss coming at Winthrop (a game they were NOT expected to win) by two points.  Meanwhile, South Alabama is coming off B2B one-point games, the last being a 78-77 loss to Georgia State on Saturday that will prove difficult to get over.

While South Alabama should end up residing at the bottom of the Sun Belt, Ga Southern should end up being close to the top. Right now, I'd consider them third in the pecking order, behind only UL Lafayette and TX-Arlington. Saturday saw them down Troy here at home, 86-82, as 5.5-pt favorites. That failure to cover, I believe, has created some value for this matchup. It's certainly not a bad situation as this will be the Eagles' fourth consecutive home game. Having to go on the road for two next weekend (UL Lafayette, UL Monroe), I'd say it's pretty imperative for the Eagles to take care of business here. Though they failed to cover against Troy, they did lead the entire second half, typically by more than what the oddsmakers were asking for. They did so despite going only 7 of 29 from three-point range. By the way, in five home games so far, the Eagles are averaging 90.8 points per game!

South Alabama really let one get away on Saturday as they allowed Georgia State to score the game's final eight points en route to coming out on the losing end, 78-77. That result is a "bitter pill to swallow" and like I said earlier, will be difficult to get over. Of course, GSU won't be lacking for motivation here as LY's three losses to USA all came by six points or fewer. The Eagles shot poorly, as in below 37% overall, in all three games. This year's squad is much improved though and is 17-5 SU L22 Sun Belt home games. South Alabama has just two road wins thus far (lost at Stetson), one of them coming against a terrible Southern Miss team. Other than at Minnesota, Ga Southern really hasn't played a bad game this year as three of their six losses have been by three points or less. This is only their third game in the last 19 days (rested!) and I like how they defend the three-point line (opponents shooting only 30.3% against them at home). USA is shooting less than 30% from behind the arc for the year. 8* Georgia Southern

10* Over Cavs/Suns (8:35 ET): To me, this shapes up exactly the same as my last Over play, which was Cleveland visiting Brooklyn. Only this time, the Cavaliers will have both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love back in the lineup as they face a team that is just as bad defensively. Thus, the play is even stronger! While the Suns allow "only" 111.3 points per game compared to the league-worst 114.3 PPG allowed by the Nets, the difference in efficiency is negligible. Sure, Phoenix has gone Under in five straight games, thanks to some uncharacteristically solid defense. But we shouldn't see any of that here. Furthermore, as I mentioned in the Cleveland-Brooklyn writeup from Friday, the Cavs' own defensive efficiency isn't that good. Take the Over.

Scoring has exploded in the NBA this year, resulting in some really high totals. But Cleveland is still 6-1 Over in road games when the O/U line is 210+ including the last game. Coming off B2B sub-100 pt games, they torched the Nets for 116 despite shooting only 43.2% from the floor. They should shoot better here against a Suns side permitting its opponents to shoot 46.5% for the year. Having both Love and Irving back will obviously help. Note that there's a chance that Kyle Korver (just acquired) could join the team here. With or without him, the Cavs will find success shooting the three as they are among the league-leaders in percentage and attempts. Defensively though, let's note Cleveland has allowed 100+ points in six of its past seven games.

Phoenix has been held below its season average of 105.6 PPG six straight times, even as they've pulled off rare B2B wins over Miami and Dallas. This is obviously a big step up in class for them, but scoring should rise. The Suns are a perfect 6-0 this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Overall, this is one of the top five Over teams in the league (despite five straight Unders), so recent results have been nothing more than a little "market correction" after a 23-9 Over start to the season. Again, after turning in four of its best defensive performances of the year over the L5 games, I would expect the team to regress at that end here. 10* Over Cavs/Suns

8* Illinois-Chicago (5:00 ET): This would be a classic letdown spot for favored Oakland, playing its second road game in three days and off an outright upset of fellow Horizon heavyweight Valparaiso. Make no mistake about; the Golden Grizzlies have been an incredibly successful money-maker at the betting window, covering over two-thirds of their games the L3 seasons, including the last four. But this is a pretty big number to be caught laying given the circumstances. UIC is playing its sixth straight home game and had no issue w/ Detroit on Friday, winning and covering that game 78-64 as seven-point favorites. Take the points.

Oakland can now claim to be the Horizon League favorite due to the win at Valpo. The key was taking what was a four-point halftime lead and stretching it to 15 just 3:30 into the second half. From that point forward, Valpo never got closer than five. But the Golden Grizzlies are now dealing with the burden of having to win by a certain margin. Granted, they've eclipsed it three straight times, but playing the second time on the road in three days is tough regardless of who you are and what conference you play in. Yes, this team can score in bunches and is 24-9 ATS its L33 road games. But there's a juncture when we reach a "tipping point," and for Oakland today is that time. Will they really win a fourth straight league game by double digits? 

UIC has some "momentum" (hate that word!) after shooting a blistering 57.8% from the floor in the 78-64 win over Detroit. Will the Flames match that percentage here? Not likely, but they do lead all Horizon League teams w/ a 47.2 field goal percentage. Thus, I think they can keep pace w/ the high powered Golden Grizzlies. UIC's home split, in terms of points scored vs. allowed, is roughly the same as Oakland's on the road. Coming off a conference win, the Flames are 8-1 ATS the L3 seasons. While they've lost the last four regular season matchups to Oakland, the Flames did upset them in the 2015 Conference Tourney. I just think that this line is too high. 8* Illinois-Chicago

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): I don't have a ton of respect for Atlanta right now, particularly in the road favorite role. That's even when matched up against one of the worst teams in the league as they are tonight. Earlier in the week, they did go to Orlando and blow out the Magic as short chalk. Then they followed that up w/ a win at New Orleans (as 2-pt dogs), 99-94. Overall, the Hawks have won four in a row, including a win over San Antonio (at home). So why don't I respect them that much? Well, a potential teardown has begun w/ the trade of Kyle Korver to Cleveland. Though the Hawks have a winning record (20-16 SU), they've been outscored this season and still sport a negative efficiency rating as well. Take the points here.

Now Dallas is admittedly a lot worse off than Atlanta. The Mavs have definitely fallen on "hard times" w/ their 11-25 SU record, which includes an outright loss here at home to Phoenix two nights ago. That was a rare time that this team was favored. They also actually closed as the slightest (1-pt) of faves against Washington the game previous when they did win SU, 113-105 here in 'Big D.' Being favored by the amount they were against the Suns doesn't suit this team well, but thankfully no margin of victory is being required here. It's shocking that prior to the last two games, Dallas had been favored only ONE time previously all season!

This is the Mavs' third straight home game while it is the Hawks' third straight road game (in four nights, no less). Therefore, situationally, things set up better for Dallas here. Something to take note of w/ the Mavs of late is that their offensive efficiency has been way up. There was a time they actually ranked last in the league in that department. But now, they are "up" to 23rd w/ the exact same rating as Atlanta. Some of that is due to Dirk Nowitzki being back. The Hawks average less than 100 PPG on the road this year and impending moves by the front office are likely to kill morale.  10* Dallas

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Bulls have pulled off back to back minor upsets, but I won't give them much credit for beating Cleveland on Wednesday as both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were out. Prior to that win and one over Charlotte (at home), Chicago had gone just 2-5 straight up and 1-6 against the spread their previous seven games. Tonight, they host another Eastern Conference heavyweight, that being Toronto. Surprising to some is the fact the Raptors are tops in the conference in both YTD point differential and efficiency rating. I was absolutely shocked to learn that the Raptors are 0-8 SU and ATS vs. the Bulls the L2 seasons. That is absolutely not indicative of respective overall performance during that time. Toronto snaps this shocking losing streak tonight!

Led by Kyle Lowry's 33 points and five assists, the Raptors beat a good Jazz team Thursday night, 101-93 as 5.5-point chalk. It was a nice bounce back for them after getting dismantled by San Antonio two nights earlier. Having played Golden State, San Antonio and Utah all in the L5 games, the Bulls represent a drop in class in terms of opponent for Toronto. It has been the offense that has carried the Raptors this year; only the Warriors rank higher in efficiency. They are third in the league in 3-point field goal percentage. They are averaging 110 PPG overall. Those kind of numbers are simply too much for a Bulls team that is simply average overall and is 19th in offensive efficiency.

Two of the Bulls' four wins over the Raptors last year came by only two points (both in Toronto). Chicago's strong start to this season caught me by surprise, but predictably they've begun to regress. There are rumors that Jimmy Butler may be dealt and that HC Fred Hoiberg's job is not secure. I just don't like the way this team is presently constructed. Meanwhile, this will be perhaps the strongest Raptors team that has ever come to the Windy City. Only the Warriors and Spurs have a better win percentage in games decided by double digits compared to Toronto's 13-2 record. They are an Eastern Conference best 22-12 ATS overall this year and Chicago is 11-21 ATS off a SU dog win. 10* Toronto

10* Princeton (7:00 ET): Exams may be over with in the Ivy League, but for Penn, there's perhaps a greater challenge in front of them. That would be tonight's conference opener, which calls for a trip to league favorite Princeton. It's believed to be a "two-horse race" in the Ivy this year (Princeton and Yale), so pretty much disregard the fact that both of these schools come in riding three-game win streaks. I was a bit surprised to find that Penn has had plenty of ATS success at Princeton's expense through the years (25-12 ATS L37 meetings, including 15-4 on the road). Both of LY's matchups were decided by two points or less (Princeton won both). But I don't like the Quakers getting such a short number this time around.

Princeton ended it's non-conference slate on New Year's Eve by destroying Cal Poly 81-52. (My goodness, the Big West is bad!). That was the Tigers' second blowout win in a row at home as they had handled Hampton 77-49 just three days earlier (allowed only 16 second half points!). Including those victories, they are now outscoring visiting teams by 27.8 points per game at home this year. It was the offense that carried Princeton against Cal Poly as they shot a ridiculous 56% from the field. Will they match that here? Probably not, but I don't think they have to. Not w/ a defense that has held those last two opponents to just 34.1 and 36.4% respectively. I don't see Penn having much offensive success in this game. 

Penn was able to beat Fairfield on 12.30 despite starting the game 0 for 11 from three-point range! Of course, it helped that Fairfield shot a miserable 33% for the entire game themselves. The Quakers trailed at the half that last game, but were really lucky that Fairfield was an absolutely atrocious 13 of 40 on two-point attempts. Really, the Quakers have consistently benefited from awful shooting from their opponents this season. That won't happen here. This should be a double digit spread. 10* Princeton

10* Louisiana Tech (7:00 ET): Taking inventory of Conference USA, you can expect Louisiana Tech to finish at or near the top of the league this year while UT-San Antonio should reside at the bottom. There's a pretty sizable gap between the top and bottom of this large league, one that's not being accounted enough for by the linesmakers tonight in Ruston. La Tech enters this game having won five of six w/ their lone loss coming by a single point to Fla Gulf Coast (remember them?). Meanwhile, UTSA is off an awful loss to fellow C-USA lightweight Southern Miss (77-59 as 2-pt road chalk). That same Southern Miss team lost to La Tech by 24 at home the game previous. Lay the points here in what should be an absolute blowout. 

La Tech will be the top challenger to Middle Tennessee this year for league bragging rights. They don't play the Blue Raiders until the end of the month, so between now and then there's a chance to rack up a ton of victories. The Bulldogs' last four victories have all come by at least 20 points. They've dominated opponents here in Ruston, going 9-1 SU while winning by an average margin of 23.8 points per game. Again, that one loss came by a single point. Did I mention they'll be hosting a team that's 0-9 SU away from home and averaging only 62.4 PPG in such affairs? Oh, I hadn't? Well, that's the case. The average MOV in La Tech's 4-0 sweep of UTSA the L2 season has been 11.25 PPG. But the discrepancy between the two schools is as great as it's ever been right now.

That winless record away from home didn't stop the oddsmakers from favoring UTSA at Southern Miss (who is admittedly terrible) on Thursday. I can't overstate what a bad loss that was for the Roadrunners, however. Southern Miss had lost its previous nine games and was down eight at halftime. But in the second half UTSA was outscored by 26! Now they have to face a team that is shooting 51% for the year at home and has held three straight opponents around 33% shooting overall! La Tech's 64-44 beatdown over UTEP is indicative of what to expect here, only the beatdown should be more severe. UTEP was held to just 19 second half points. 10* Louisiana Tech

8* West Virginia (1:00 ET): Not all 12-2 teams are "created equal" and that's certainly the case in this Big 12 matchup Saturday afternoon. West Virginia may have been stunned Tuesday night in Lubbock (lost 77-76 to Texas Tech), but that didn't change my view that they are one of the top teams in the country. They came into the week underrated by the pollsters (only 7th??) and should bounce back in a major way here in Morgantown. The hype will say TCU is "much improved" in 2017, but I still remember the Horned Frogs losing every Big 12 road game LY. They were 0-3 overall vs. WVU in 2015-16, including a 31-point loss in Morgantown. This will be only TCU's third "true" road game of this season. Lay the points.

West Virginia's two losses this year have come by a combined five points. Tuesday's loss to Texas Tech, a back and forth affair the whole way, went to overtime. The issue was they allowed the Red Raiders to shoot better than 50% from the floor, including 7 of 13 from three-point range. The trademark pressure we're accustomed to seeing from the Mountaineers also failed to produce the requisite number of turnovers (13). Plus, it didn't help that they went only 13 of 24 from the FT line in a one-point loss. A return to Morgantown would seem to be "just what the doctor ordered" though. They're 8-0 SU in home games so far, winning by an incredible margin of 39.1 points per game! Don't be worried about the number either as WVU is 9-3 ATS the L3 seasons laying 12.5 or more points here on their home floor.

TCU is 0-9 SU (2-7 ATS) as WVU's conference rival including the three losses (by a combined 59 pts) last season. Clearly, HC Jamie Dixon was a great hire as is evident by him getting Jaylen Fisher (highest rated signee EVER for the program!) and completely turning over the roster in less than one year's time. But you have to be concerned about such a young team going into this environment. Not only have the Horned Frogs turned the ball over a total of 31 times the L2 games, this will clearly be the most hostile environment they've stumbled into yet. They've already lost at SMU by double digits. Granted, the only other loss was to Kansas (no shame there), but it is this game that shapes up as the young team's toughest to date. 8* West Virginia

8* Ohio (9:00 ET): We have a Mid-American Conference matchup Friday night in Athens. Some may be "scratching their heads" over the fact that one team is a notable favorite over the other in a seemingly even matchup. But not I. The favorite here (Ohio) has lost only three times all season, two of those coming by four points or less. They are a dominant 8-0 SU here in Athens, winning by an average margin of 18.3 points per game. In comes a Kent team that comes off a "flashy" (pun intended!) 100-pt effort in its last game and an outright upset of Texas (on the road) before that. But let us not forget that this team also lost at Oregon State as well. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU, so it will be a big deal to the faithful in Athens w/ the students having just returned from winter break. Lay the points.  

Ohio is in off a dominant performance on Tuesday as the blew out Western Michigan, 89-58 as 10-point home favorites. The Bobcats continued their sharp shooting from three-point range by going 16 of 31 from behind the arc. This was one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country LY (23rd) and they hold that same exact same rating nationally coming into tonight's contest. Defensively, they are much improved from a year ago and just held WMU to 33% shooting. For the season, they are allowing only 65.5 PPG (top 60) and are tops among MAC schools by holding opponents to just 39.6% shooting overall. Offensively, they are led by reigning MAC Player of the Year Antonio Campbell, but have three other double digit scorers as well. The Bobcats are 32-10 SU under third year HC Saul Phillips here at home. 

Kent, as I mentioned, scored 100 pts in its last game. That was due to them setting a MAC record by going 31 of 31 from the free throw line. They can't count on doing that again, especially on the road. It was free throws that took a game that was tied w/ just over 13 minutes to go and made it a comfortable win for the Golden Flashes. They lost LY here in Athens by 11, shooting only 38.6% from the floor. I would not expect shooting to improve much here as the team is last in the conference in FG% (42.3) and 11th from 3-pt range (31.9%). Kent also struggles defending the arc, letting opponents hit over 35%. For the second year in a row, I like Ohio to down their MAC East rival in Friday night home game on ESPNU. 8* Ohio

10* Houston (7:05 ET): While you do have to be leery about a potential letdown from a team off the kind of win the Rockets had last night over Oklahoma City, something I continue to harp on is the fact that NBA teams playing in the second game of a back to back are consistently being undervalued. It's only natural for the linesmakers to shade lines accordingly, but more often that not, they are overreacting to the lack of rest. Case in point; last night's play on Charlotte over Detroit where the Hornets covered (and almost won SU). It's a little different here w/ Houston being favored, but the bottom line is that they are significantly better than Orlando and this line should be several points higher.

In what was hyped as a tremendous individual battle between James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the former's team came out on top last night. Houston beat OKC 118-116, failing to cover as 8.5-pt chalk (Thunder were in the second game of a back to back, by the way), but the final was a bit misleading considering the Rockets led by 18 in the third quarter. Harden led the way w/ 26 points, fewer than Westbrook scored, but "The Beard" has the better supporting cast right now and it showed. Certainly, the Rockets' supporting cast should be able to outshine their Magic counterparts tonight. As expected, this offense has really taken off under HC Mike D'Antoni, averaging 114.6 points per game (second most) and ranking third in efficiency. Only the Warriors are ahead of them in both categories. This has also been a profitable team to bet on this year as they rank #1 in the league at the betting window w/ a 24-13 ATS record. That includes 14-5 on the road and 14-3 against teams w/ losing records. They are a perfect 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS) in the second game of a back to back.

Orlando, meanwhile, is off somewhat ugly 19-point home loss to Atlanta on Wednesday. They were close for basically three quarters, but they could not stop the Hawks from making baskets late. They allowed 54.3% shooting for the game and 33 fourth quarter points. Those kind of numbers are bad news when facing this kind of offense. It's especially concerning that the Magic are allowing teams to shoot 37.2% from three-point range here at home this season. The Rockets should have no problem exploiting that. On offense, the Magic simply don't score enough (97.1 PPG at home) to keep pace here. 10* Houston

10* Over Cavs/Nets (7:35 ET): Cleveland has lost eight straight times when two of it's "Big Three" (that's LeBron, Irving and Love) don't suit up. Irving and Love were both M.I.A. in Wednesday's 106-94 home loss to the Bulls and listed as questionable for tonight. However, the assignment is far easier w/ a trip to Brooklyn to face the league-worst Nets. Even if it's only LeBron, he can lead his team to plenty of points against the league's 27th ranked team in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Cavs' defensive efficiency isn't all that great either (14th). These teams have combined to go Under in five straight meetings, but the last one - a 119-99 Cleveland win on 12.23 - saw a higher total than this and still almost went Over despite woeful 16 of 65 shooting from three-point range (less than 25 percent!) from the two sides. Take the Over.

The Cavs have now failed to score 100 pts in B2B games. That had previously not happened all season. Granted, Irving and Love potentially being out again is going to have an effect, but Brooklyn is so bad defensively that it shouldn't matter too much. The Nets give up 114.2 points per game, which is comfortably the highest average in the league. The entire Cleveland team is battling some sort of illness going around (why Love is out), but help could arrive in the form of Kyle Korver, who was just acquired from the Hawks. Yes, there is a chance Korver could play here. Cleveland is one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league, but has been at 25 percent the L2 games. Korver would change that in a hurry, especially against a Brooklyn team allowing its opponents to score so much.

I also think the Nets could find offensive success in this game. The Cavs have given up at least 106 pts in five of their last six games and lack depth right now. Brooklyn has some size (Brook Lopez) and I'm not sure Cleveland will have an answer for him. I suspect that the Nets starters will perform better than they did in last night's game at Indiana, which was still a 121-109 final as scoring continues to explode in the NBA this season. But it still comes back to the Nets' defense, which has allowed 100+ pts in every game but one since the start of December. They've allowed 120+ in eight of the last 25 games. 10* Over Cavs/Nets

8* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The belief that teams will suffer in the second game of a back to back more often that not leads to them being undervalued and it certainly appears as if that's the case tonight w/ the Hornets. Granted, you do have to be a bit leery on how a team will respond off a big win like the one Charlotte had last night (at home) vs. Oklahoma City. But I see no reason why this team should be an underdog against a Detroit side that is on the verge of implosion, even out on the road. Even after factoring in home court advantage, the Pistons are clearly not the better team here and given their recent struggles (which I know all too well!), it's difficult to endorse them at all right now. Take the points.

The Pistons have lost 8 of 10 overall following a 121-116 defeat at the hands of Indiana Tuesday night. That loss took place here at The Palace and saw team defense be virtually non-existent as they allowed 36 first quarter points. From there, Indiana went onto shoot 58.1% for the game including 9 of 16 from three-point range. It also didn't help that - at home - Detroit faced a -18 disadvantage in FT attempts. At this point, I have to wonder if the team is tuning out HC Stan Van Gundy. I like SVG a lot, but his act his worn thin at every stop in his career. In this 2-8 SU stretch, one of the team's wins was a fortunate spot against Cleveland (playing w/o LeBron) the day after X-Mas. Overall, the defensive numbers still look good, but they've given up 119 or more points three times in the last six games.

Charlotte just scored 123 last night on a good Oklahoma City defense and is averaging over 110 PPG over their last five contests. In other words, this hardly sounds like an ideal matchup for the slumping Pistons. These teams did split a pair of games in Charlotte earlier this season. But I think what most fail to realize is how respected this Hornets team traditionally is by the marketplace. They've only been an underdog in six of their 36 games! They will be a top five team (at worst) in the East by season's end. They're definitely the better team here and if they don't win outright, it will be loss by a smaller margin than what the line is calling for. 8* Charlotte

10* Under Jazz/Raptors (7:35 ET): Toronto has primarily been an Over team this season (22-12 in all games), but tonight they are matched up w/ a team that is both second in defensive efficiency and last in pace of play. That would be Utah, who also happens to be one of just three teams in the league to both score AND allow less than 100 points per game (Detroit & Memphis are the others). Thus, there are significant factors that make the Under in play here. Furthermore, the Raptors haven't played particularly well of late, most notably in a 28-point drubbing at the hands of San Antonio two nights ago. They've lost three of four overall and this is their first game back home after a long-road trip (always tricky). Take the Under here.

Right now, it's a little difficult to evaluate Utah. They're certainly better than most teams (currently ranked 6th in my own personal power rankings), but as is evident by a 1-9 SU/2-8 ATS record as an underdog, they're nowhere near ready to hang w/ the "big boys." (For the record, Toronto is one of the five teams I have above them). The Jazz had recently won four in a row, but those wins came against the Lakers, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Brooklyn, which is as weak a four-game stretch as you can have in this league. Then they went out and lost at Boston (as 5.5-pt dogs) Tuesday night. They gave up 115 points in that game, highly irregular, as for the year they're allowing only 95.1 PPG (league best!) on 43.2% shooting.

These teams did just meet, in Utah, right before X-Mas. Toronto won 104-98, shooting 53.1% for the game. Again, that was an unusually poor effort on the defensive end from the Jazz. Even though they're on the road this time, I expect better for this rematch. Certainly, they're more familiar w/ the Raptors now. Kyle Lowry went for 36 points in that first meeting, on 15 of 20 shooting. He won't duplicate that here. Of course, the sense of familiarity works both ways here. Utah continues to be short-handed w/ George Hill, Dante Exum and Alec Burks all out of the lineup (Exum could play tonight). Toronto will likely be missing Patrick Patterson here as they were Tuesday in San Antonio when they scored a season-low 82 points. 10* Under Jazz/Raptors

8* Hofstra (7:00 ET): This is an opportunity to use each team's most recent result to our benefit. Visiting James Madison comes in off a surprisingly one-sided win over Towson, 64-44, where they were four-point home underdogs. It was just the fourth win of the year for the Dukes. Meanwhile, host Hofstra is off a home loss to William & Mary, 95-93, where they were 4.5-point favorites. I don't see the Pride dropping B2B home games in CAA play, nor can I see JMU pulling consecutive upsets. The number here is relatively short, thus I'll lay it as there's a revenge angle brewing in this Colonial battle as well.

Hofstra has played an incredible amount of close games so far, in fact, six have been decided by four points or less. That includes the last two times we've seen them. Saturday at Delaware, they came out on the winning end, 58-56, thanks to a couple of made free throws in the final minute. That was not a pretty offensive game from either side, but Hofstra still led most of the way. There was a ton more offense Monday night when they hosted William & Mary and the game went into overtime. Unfortunately for the Pride, the Tribe hit a buzzer-beater in overtime (from NBA 3-pt range) to win there, 95-93. It was just the second loss in six home games for Hofstra thus far. 

Despite the heartbreaking loss earlier in the week, I see Hofstra responding w/ a big win tonight. As alluded to earlier, the team will not be lacking for motivation. They have lost four straight regular season meetings to James Madison, but did beat them in the 2015 CAA Tournament. Both of last year's games went into overtime. This is probably the weakest team JMU has brought to Hempstead in some time as the Dukes are just 4-11 SU, including 2-7 ATS as an underdog, 1-5 on the road. This will be their first road game since a double digit loss on December 17th at Appalachian State. They'll have to deal w/ a Hofstra team averaging 85.2 PPG at home this year. So far in CAA play, we've seen JMU shoot better than 55% against Drexel and hold Towson to 32% shooting. I seriously doubt that they'll be so fortunate to hit either of those percentages tonight being that this is a roadie. Lay the points. 8* Hofstra

10* The Citadel (7:00 ET): Let's not kid ourselves. The Citadel is not a very good basketball team. But the Bulldogs have enough going for them right now (off an outright win!) and getting enough points to make this Southern Conference matchup w/ East Tenn State more interesting than expected. Remember, I'm off a big win in the SoCon earlier in the week as UNC Greensboro upset league favorite Chattanooga. While The Citadel is more than likely to end up finishing at the bottom of the league by season's end, they've already proven they can hang by going 3-0 ATS against conference opponents thus far. That includes an upset of Wofford (as 15-point dogs), on the road, their last time out. Take the points here.

East Tennessee State is considered by many to be the second best team in the SoCon. However, the Buccaneers have played only one conference foe to date and that was VMI, the weakest of the lot. Predictably, that one went quite well for them as they romped to a 102-75 victory. We can probably expect a ton of points in this game (more on that in a moment), so the question remains: can ETSU score enough to cover this large of a spread? I think not, at least out on the road. Averaging 80.6 PPG is impressive, but as you're about to see, that likely won't be nearly enough to get the job done here. This team has only one double digit scorer (TJ Cromer) and another player (Julian Walters) just left the program last week.

The Citadel both averages and allows 100+ PPG. I'm not making this up. They play at - by far - the fastest tempo of any team in the country. While just 8-8 SU overall, they are 6-2 SU at home. Now the upset of Wofford did require OT, but it was a game they led by nine at halftime and by seven in the extra period. As an underdog this season, the Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS. They have double revenge from LY as well and in one of the losses to ETSU (at home!), they shot only 27.9% from the floor and scored just 51 points, easily a season-low. I'm sure the players remember that one. This year's group has made at least 10 three-pointers in 14 of 16 games and 15+ seven different times. They've had seven games w/ multiple 20+ pt scorers. ETSU is just 2-2 SU this year away from Johnson City. 10* The Citadel

10* Oregon State (11:00 ET): The Pac 12 is a fairly "top-heavy" league this year w/ UCLA, Oregon, Arizona and even Cal likely to "duke it out" for the top spot. But after that, the prognosis looks rather bleak for the rest of the lot, including a USC team that has just one loss. Clearly, the two worst teams in the conference are Oregon State and Washington State, who will matchup tonight in The Palouse. While this has been an incredibly miserable season thus far for OSU, one that has seen them lose their best player (Tres Tinkle) for an indefinite period of time, I still have them rated slightly above Wazzu. Thus, even after factoring in the home court advantage, this looks like a really solid value to me. Take the points.

Washington State comes in off a big upset over rival Washington, 79-74, as 12.5-pt underdogs in Seattle. That snapped a 17-game Pac 12 losing streak as they closed the game on a stunning 12-3 run after trailing almost the whole way. With a far more appealing home date looming against Oregon on Saturday (one of those aforementioned conference heavyweights), tonight's game all of a sudden shapes up to me a pretty classic 'sandwich spot.' Yes, the Cougs have triple revenge from the last two years, including a 69-49 loss in Corvallis LY in what was the teams' only meeting. But it's hard to endorse WSU as chalk seeing as the role finds them at just 1-5 ATS. That even includes a non-cover here at home against Sacramento State on 12.21. The team is on its longest win streak of the season (three games), but all three wins were by eight points or less.

Meanwhile, it has not been an ideal start to Pac 12 play for Oregon State. They drew a couple of tough assignments last week, playing both USC and UCLA. Still, they covered both and actually come into tonight riding a 3-game ATS win streak. That includes an upset of a Kent State team that just went to Texas and won. As far as "true" road games go, the Beavers may be winless, but this is still quite the generous number. Note that OSU's matchup zone defense forced UCLA into its worst shooting night of the season (44.1%). The game was actually tied in the second half. Certainly then, the Beavers can keep Wazzu in check, right? 10* Oregon State

8* Nebraska-Omaha (8:00 ET): We head to the Summit League for this play where the conference favorite (Ft. Wayne) is laying points on the road. IPFW was one of the top ATS teams in the country last year, going 21-8 at the betting window. In fact, no other team in the country that played at least seven lined games covered at a better rate! This year, predictably, has seen the oddsmakers get some of their money back. IPFW (Ft. Wayne) is just 5-5 ATS, though they do hold an outright win at Indiana. I played against them (successfully) early in the year when they went to Illinois State (as 6.5-pt underdogs) and lost 75-57. That brings me to my main point, which is that the Mastadons are only 1-4 ATS this season away from home (one win was Indiana), thus I don't like them as road chalk. That 42-22 overall ATS record the L3 seasons is due to regress. Take the points.

Nebraska-Omaha happens to be leaving its (likely few) backers pretty broke. The Mavericks are returning home from an 0-3 SU/ATS road trip and last covered a game all the way back on December 3rd, at Iowa. That's an 0-6 ATS mark L6 lined games, if you're keeping score, though they did win SU three times during that span including both home games. This will only be the FIFTH home game this year for the team. Though already 0-2 in Summit League play, this will be the first conference home game. They have a bit of revenge on their minds from LY when they suffered two painful losses at the hands of IPFW, the first coming here in overtime, 106-101 as 8.5-pt chalk. The rematch was another high-scoring affair, 94-90, w/ FT shooting being the difference.

Ft. Wayne has been a road favorite two times before this season and both times they failed to cover. The first was at Austin Peay and the second was at Detroit. This team's main problem when favored is they simply give up too many points. They are allowing 85.5 PPG away from home. You simply can't always outscore teams. The Mastadons found that out in the Summit League opener when they lost outright to a bad Western Illinois team 93-91 as 14.5-pt faves at home. They bounced back w/ a 102-91 win over Oral Roberts on New Year's Eve, but that's still 90 PPG allowed over the L3 contests! Back home, Omaha should shoot the ball better than they have the L2 games and an upset is likely. 8* Nebraska-Omaha

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Both of these teams enter in off upset victories. At home, Atlanta stunned San Antonio, 114-112 as five-point underdogs. That was just the fourth loss for the Spurs in their last 27 games. The upset not only required overtime after a last-second three to tie at the end of regulation, but also a season-best 32 points from Paul Milsap and a career-best tying 29 points from Tim Hardaway Jr. It will certainly be difficult to duplicate those numbers again here in Orlando. The Magic just went to New York and beat the overrated Knicks, 115-103 as 3.5-pt dogs. While the Hawks are on a three-game win streak, the Magic are also a respectable 3-2 SU their last five games. Orlando has won each of the L3 times they've played Atlanta, including a 131-120 road win last month. Take the points.

The Hawks started the season out quite well, but have fallen off a cliff ever since. Now there are rumors that Milsap might be dealt, which would amount to essentially "waving the white flag" on the season. The team is still in playoff contention due to the East being so weak, but this is not a team capable of winning a 1st round playoff series. Offensive efficiency has been a problem as the team ranks only 23rd in that department. Recent performances have been better, but note that the entirety of the three-game win streak came at home. Now they're on the road where they're only 8-9 SU and averaging less than 100 PPG. Coming off a SU win as a dog this season, the team's record is just 1-4 SU and ATS.

Orlando won't be going to the playoffs this year, but there are some nice young pieces. Chief among them is PG Elfrid Peyton, who had the best game of his career last month against the Hawks. There, he went for 29 points and 14 assists. He'll need to play well, not necessarily that well, for the Magic to beat the Hawks for a fourth straight time. My numbers don't like the idea of Atlanta laying more than one point in this spot, thus I'll side w/ the value as the Hawks have to prove it to me on the road. They are also just 1-6 ATS in division games so far this season. 8* Orlando

10* West Virginia (9:15 ET): I'm going to keep rolling w/ Bob Huggins' Mountaineers, who just might be the best team in the country right now. I had them on Friday when they went to Stillwater and dismantled Oklahoma State 92-75 as a short road favorite. I also took them the previous Friday as they rolled past an overmatched Northern Kentucky side, 92-61 as 26-pt chalk. For a second straight time, we find the team on the road and laying a short number against a Big 12 opponent they have dominated of late. Once again, the number is simply not high enough as Texas Tech's 11-2 SU record is nowhere close to as impressive as WVU's 12-1 SU mark. Kansas entered the year as the favorite and Baylor is still unbeaten. But the Mountaineers just might be the best team in the Big 12, if not the country.

I've run through the exploits of this WVU team before, but allow me to do it again. HC Huggins can go as many as 13 deep w/ this roster. The pressure defense that he employs will continue to be among the best at forcing turnovers nationally. They forced 19 TO's at Oklahoma State and pretty much led that game by double digits throughout. Like OSU, the Mounties have had Texas Tech's number in the past, going 4-0 SU/ATS against them since joining the Big 12. It was close here in Lubbock LY, but then it was a 90-68 beatdown in Morgantown. Again, I'm not worried about this team going on the road as they've already won at Virginia, 66-57. The latest polls have WVU at #7. That's just too low. 

Texas Tech, meanwhile, is nowhere near as good as its record. Prior to Friday, they had lost only one time, which was by two to Auburn. But they blew a double-digit second half lead at Iowa State and ended up falling 63-56, not even covering the 4.5-point spot. That will be a difficult defeat to get over. Also difficult for the Red Raiders will be handling the Mountaineers' press. Against Iowa State, Tech turned the ball over 15 times, which is an ominous sign for tonight's matchup. Unlike WVU, Tech really didn't challenge itself during the non-conference portion of the schedule. What's their "best" win? It certainly won't be WVU after tonight. 10* West Virginia

10* Under Kings/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Oddsmakers were a little late hanging a number for this matchup as Denver played last night at Golden State. Truth be told, I was hoping for an Over there (which happened), so that we could grab a few more value points here. To be clear, I'm talking about the total and not the side. Yes, Denver has been a big winner for Over bettors all season long. In fact, they are the top Over team in the league right now at 23-10-2. But the number for tonight's matchup w/ Sacramento strikes me as being peculiar as you'd think it would be a lot higher (last night's O/U line vs. the Dubs was 232.5). Thus, I expect the majority of bettors to again be on the Over tonight, but I'm going against the grain w/ an Under play.

This will be Sacramento's first game of 2017. They ended 2016 w/ a pair of losses, both times failing to score 100 points. They actually totaled only 89 in last week's matchup with Portland, which is really bad when you consider the fact that the Blazers rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. It was then a "hard right turn" for New Year's Eve as they faced the top team in the league in defensive efficiency, that being Memphis. While the Kings actually scored more in that game, they still lost by double digits. This team ranks only 18th in the league in offensive efficiency and their pace of play has come WAY down under HC Dave Joerger to the point they rank 25th in that department. On the road this season, they're averaging only 99.0 PPG.  

The last seven times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. So, it's about time that an Under comes through. This will be the first meeting of 2016-17, for the record, and it comes at a time when both sides are bit banged up. Rudy Gay, Aaron Afflalo and Ty Lawson are all hurt for the Kings. Meanwhile, two of the Nuggets' big men - Darrell Arthur and Kenneth Faried - missed last night's game w/ the Warriors. In the second game of a back to back, look for Denver to be a bit "sluggish" tonight. Without rest, they're only 1-5 straight up this season. Sacramento games are "only" averaging 206.1 PPG this year, so the number looks high. 10* Under Kings/Nuggets

8* Kentucky (9:00 ET): To me, the best team in the country is either Kentucky or West Virginia. Yes, UK has already lost twice. But those losses both came against top teams: UCLA (home) and Louisville (away). They were by a combined eight points. So what I'm saying is that there's no shame in the fact they've already tasted defeat twice. They've also beaten North Carolina at a neutral setting, remember. Coach Cal and company are also off an impressive drubbing of Ole Miss, in Oxford, last week. They won that game 99-76 as 11-point chalk and I'm envisioning a somewhat similar result tonight in Lexington. Lay the points.

Texas A&M arrives in Bluegrass country off a very disappointing result as they lost at home to Tennessee their last time out. They were 9.5-point favorites in the 73-63 loss last Thursday. It was actually the second straight lined affair that the Aggies lost outright. On December 17th, on a neutral floor, they lost 67-63 to Arizona. So this is a clearly a team the oddsmakers have had overvalued. There was also an early season loss (as six-point favorites) at home to USC. Their only other loss was on a neutral floor to UCLA. No shame w/ that result, but I still feel the oddsmakers are being too kind for what will certainly be the Aggies' toughest SEC game of the year. These teams did play three tight games last year (two won by UK), but that was a better A&M team as well. 

Tonight actually marks the 1st time that Kentucky has gotten to play at Rupp Arena since December 7th. Credit Coach Cal for scheduling a pretty tough non-conference slate. At home so far, the Wildcats are 6-1 SU and outscoring opponents by 23.8 points per game. Offensively, UK has few peers as they are third in efficiency and average a whopping 93.5 points per game. That's simply way too much firepower for a Texas A&M side (74.7 PPG) to compete against. The Aggies haven't been blown out yet, but this will also likely be their most difficult assignment of the season. The fact they shot less than 35% from the floor against Tennessee last Thursday does not bode well for them at all. 8* Kentucky

10* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons started 2017 w/ a much needed win. It was not easy though. They trailed Miami - by eight - at halftime before storming back in the second half for a 107-98 win and cover. The fact that the Heat were short-handed on New Year's Day probably should temper any enthusiasm surrounding that victory, but considering how SVG's team ended 2016, they'll take it. With only two wins in the last nine games, the other coming against the LeBron-less Cavs the day after X-Mas, Detroit is actually in last place in the Central Division and outside the top eight in the East. But they're one of only seven teams in the Conference to have outscored opponents this season and the home court will be a big advantage tonight. Lay the points.

Indiana arrives in the Motor City having won B2B games. But the wins over Chicago and Orlando both took place at home. They'd lost four in a row previously and were 1-7 ATS over an eight-game stretch. The road has been unkind to the Pacers this season as they are just 4-13 SU and ATS outside of the Hoosier State. Getting points has been of little benefit to this team as well as they're just 5-11 SU/ATS in the underdog role. They're also 4-12 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. Coming off a double digit win this year, they're 3-6 ATS. Let me be clear here - Indiana may have a better record than Detroit, but they are not the better team! 

I make that last statement knowing full well that the Pacers have won the last three head to head meetings, including one right here in Detroit a little over two weeks ago. As 4.5-point dogs (rare cover in that role!), Indiana came in and won 105-90 as the Pistons had an awful shooting night (38.1 FG%). Perhaps that had something to do w/ Detroit being in the second game of a back to back (lost at Washington the previous night). Whatever the reason was there, I expect better results here. The Pistons are a staunch defensive team, giving up only 95.2 points per game at home. I've still got faith in SVG and think he'll continue to turn this thing around. 10* Detroit

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Though potentially undermanned (we know they'll be w/o Blake Griffin), I still think that the Clippers will have enough horses to get by the woeful Suns. Phoenix has actually covered B2B games, winning one of them, a surprising upset of Toronto as 8.5-pt underdogs. But that game was also at home and the Raptors were in the second night of a back to back after playing the Warriors. On the road, the Suns are just 4-15 SU and giving up a rather unsightly 114.7 points per game. They did manage to stay within the number at Utah Saturday night, which I did not like (had the Jazz), despite scoring only 86 points. The Clips will be desperate to snap a six-game slide here though and I'll lay the points.

Chris Paul is listed as questionable for tonight due to his ongoing hamstring issue. DeAndre Jordan is probable despite a hip injury. Whether both, one or neither plays, this selection remains valid. I realize that the Clippers have lost to Dallas, the Lakers, Denver and New Orleans during this six-game losing streak of theirs. But this matchup certainly offers a reprieve after playing at Oklahoma City and Houston. The Rockets torched their once mighty defense for 140 points on Friday and then a night later the Thunder scored 114. But winning a shootout here is likely given the Suns' own defensive ineptitude. Phoenix has allowed only 91 pts in B2B games, the primary reason they're 2-0 ATS in those games, but note that previously they had allowed fewer than 100 points only three times ALL SEASON!

The upcoming schedule should permit a Clippers' turnaround as they'll be playing all games in the state of California the next three weeks. Remember, there was a time when the Clips were playing better than every other team in the league. Given the potential personnel differences, it's likely worthless to cite LA's 116-98 win over Phoenix early in the season here at Staples Center. But they have won the last five home games against the Suns. HC Doc Rivers should be able to create a sense of urgency here and whomever he has in the lineup, should respond in kind. The Suns are just not a very good team. 8* LA Clippers

8* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): We go to the Southern Conference (5th oldest in the country!) for tonight's College Hoops play and we find a home dog with plenty of value. Yes, Chattanooga is the favorite to once again win this league and is rated among the top 100 nationally. But the Mocs will encounter a worthy challenger tonight in Greensboro. Making matters for difficult for the favorite is that it's their second road game in three days. UNC Greensboro will certainly not be lacking for motivation here as they are looking to bounce back from a surprise loss (here at home) to Samford on Saturday. Like Chattanooga, two of the Spartans losses came against major conference teams. They've lost only four times overall and I love the spot. Take the points.

Chattanooga's season got off to an impressive start as they went to Tennessee and won 82-69 as 3.5 point dogs. Then came a 40-point loss at North Carolina. But since then, the Mocs have gone 10-2 w/ both losses coming by six points or less. One of those losses was at Vanderbilt (by two). They've covered all but one of their last six games and are off B2B double digit wins, including 64-48 at Western Carolina in the SoCon opener. So why the fade here? Well, for starters, UNC Greensboro isn't likely to shoot the ball as poorly as Western Carolina did Saturday. The Catamounts were an awful 34 percent overall from the floor, including 2 of 10 from three-point range.

UNC Greensboro has covered 10 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, but they had lost three in row straight up to Chattanooga before pulling a big upset LY as 12.5-pt road dogs. Their impressive 79-64 win last February marked the third consecutive time the road team has won in this rivalry. It was one of just THREE SoCon losses for the Mocs last year. Chattanooga has won it's last two visits to Greensboro Coliseum, but this is a much better Spartans team now. Yes, UNCG has failed to cover three in row, including a pair of double digit losses. But prior to that, their only two losses had both been by six points or less. I'm impressed w/ the team's defense (just 63.4 PPG allowed at home) and they should shoot a lot better here than they did in the loss to Samford (37.9%), which was a surprisingly poor performance (looking ahead?). They'll bounce back here. 8* UNC Greensboro

8* California (10:00 ET): For Arizona State, this is the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot that all Pac 12 teams will face at one time or another during the course of the conference schedule. Considering the Sun Devils just pulled off an upset at Palo Alto, beating Stanford 98-93 as 6.5-pt dogs on Friday, a letdown is all but inevitable tonight in Berkeley. Conversely for Cal, this is a chance to atone for an outright loss to Arizona (were 2.5-pt favorites) on Friday (also a five-point game). The Bears have actually now lost two in a row at home, but considering who the losses were to (Virginia & Arizona) and the fact they were close, I am unconcerned. Prior to the B2B losses, Cal had won 27 in a row at Haas Pavilion. I'll lay the points w/ them here.

Though Cal has a poor ATS record overall this season (4-9), I'm proud to say that I was on them in two of the wins and covers. The first was an 86-61 rout of Cal Davis. The second came a week later and also a lopsided result, 81-55 over Cal Poly. There is no shame in losing to Virginia and Arizona, two of the best teams in the country, by a combined nine points even at home. They played both tough. Against Virginia, it was a tie game (22-22) at the break and they never trailed by more than five in the second half. As most opponents do, the Bears struggled to shoot the ball against the Cavaliers. The Arizona loss was more disappointing as they led by 13 at one point before wilting late. Again, poor shooting was the culprit. But after shooting 36% from the floor in B2B games, I look for the offense to bounce back here against an ASU team that is giving up 82.5 PPG on 46.7% shooting.

The Sun Devils are just 3-11 ATS when off a conference win the last two seasons, so there's a history of failing in this situation. In the case of their 98-93 win at Stanford on Friday, they got a career-high 30 points from Torian Graham and a season-high 25 points from Tra Holder. That won't be duplicated here, nor will the massive shooting discrepancy they held over the Cardinal from behind the three-point line (54% to 33%). I've gone over the talent on this Cal roster previously and I like this team quite a bit. I have them rated 4th in the Pac 12 (behind UCLA, Arizona and Oregon) while ASU is third worst. The Bears are the top defensive team in the league (only 59.9 PPG allowed) and have Ivan Raab, who is coming off yet ANOTHER double-double (16 pts, 16 rebounds). 8* California

8* Utah (8:05 ET): It's taken visits from the Lakers and Philadelphia, but the Jazz seem to be back on track. Of course, it also helps that this favorable scheduling stretch has coincided with the team getting healthier. Clearly, the schedule makers intended on the Jazz ending their 2016 on a positive note because tonight brings a visit from another lowly opponent, Phoenix. What I really like about this play is that the Suns are actually off a SU win, a real shocker no less, as they upset Toronto (as 8.5-pt home dogs) on Thursday. That puts them in a less than favorable spot as they're 1-7 ATS this season when off an outright win as a dog. Lay the points. 

It was a favorable spot when Phoenix hosted Toronto Thursday. That's because the Raptors were in the second game of a back to back and had just played the Warriors tough the previous night. It marked just the fourth time all season that the Suns held an opponent below 100 points.  But don't let one upset fool you; the Suns are not a good team. That was just their fourth win in December and two of the other three came at the expense of Philly and the Lakers (sound familiar?). The other win came by two, at home, against the overrated Knicks. On the road this year, the team is 4-14 SU while giving up a hiedous 116.1 points per game. They have just one road win since Thanksgiving! 

Defensively, these teams are miles apart. While Phoenix is giving up the most points per game, Utah is at the opposite end of the spectrum. They allow the fewest number of points per game in the league at 95.0! As mentioned earlier, they are (finally) starting to get healthy as PG George Hill is back. These teams met earlier this month and Utah led the entire way. The final score of 112-105 is a bit misleading at Utah led by as many as 23 before letting Phoenix come back. I can't see the Suns being too "defensive-minded" here on New Year's Eve, thus this has all the makings of a blowout. 8* Utah

10* Miami FL (4:30 ET): While it's been a really good start to the season for "The U," success has not translated to the betting window. The 'Canes are just 2-8 ATS despite being 10-2 straight up. Their last seven lined contests have all resulted in ATS failures, but that comes w/ a caveat as they've been asked to lay 14 or more points in each of the last five. Note that a good portion of those ATS results came down to the wire with three decided by three points or less. So it's not as if they're falling well short of the oddsmakers' expectations. This is still a very good team and for the ACC opener, I do believe they're being undervalued. They'll host a NC State team that has played only one "true" road game to date and that resulted in a double digit loss at Illinois.

Eight of Miami's 10 wins this year have come by double digits. None have been by fewer than eight points. The two losses came at neutral settings against good teams (Iowa State and Florida), both of whom are worthy of the Top 20 in my estimation. NC State is outside the Top 50. The Hurricanes remain on the fringes of the top 25 ("others receiving votes") and have an average margin of victory 21.1 PPG here in Coral Gables. That's after only beating Columbia by 11 on Wednesday (as 23-pt favorites), which stands as one of their biggest misses from the oddsmakers' call. Turnovers (20) were the primary issue there, but they'll come down that from season-high number of miscues here. It should also be noted Columbia was coming off nearly three full weeks of rest. 

NC State didn't challenge itself much during the non-conference portion of the schedule, save for a loss to Creighton where they got blown out. Their last six games all took place in Raleigh against non Power 5 foes. Unlike Miami, the Wolfpack have experienced success at the betting window as they are 4-0 ATS here in December. But Tennessee State, Appalachian State, Fairfield and Rider are hardly an impressive slate of opponents. None of NC State's last five opponents have shot better than 38% from the floor, which I credit more to inferior opposition than the Wolfpack's defense. This team has three wins by four points or less so far, all against pretty weak competition (Ga Southern, Loyola-IL and Bradley). Lay the points. 10* Miami FL

8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I have long been a fan of HC Stan Van Gundy, but it appears as if his act may be rapidly wearing thin in the Motor City where the Pistons have not been playing well of late - at all. SVG's team has just one win in its last seven games and it came against Cleveland w/o LeBron. I was on Detroit there, but also then faded them on Wednesday when they were humiliated at home, losing 119-94 to Milwaukee as 3.5-point chalk. The Pistons' only other cover over the L7 games - besides Cleveland - was against Golden State, another fortunate spot as the Warriors were playing the second of B2B road games and in a massive lookahead to the X-Mas Day game against the Cavaliers. Is there any hope for the Pistons right now? Yes, I think there is. Read on.

As poorly as Detroit has played of late (five of last six losses by double digits), tonight's opponent (Atlanta) has been just as bad. The Hawks did win Wednesday night - in OT - but failed to cover at home against the Knicks. It was just their seventh win in the L20 games and they're 6-14 ATS during that stretch as well. This team has fallen off dramatically since a relatively hot start to the season. What's the issue been? Well, they've fallen down to 24th in offensive efficiency. They've also allowed 105 PPG on 46.5% shooting the L5 games. These teams have already matched up once this season, here in Atlanta, and it was all Pistons in a 121-85 win as 1.5-pt dogs. Not sure Detroit should be a larger underdog this go around, especially considering the road team has won four of the last five head to head meetings outright. 

Looking at the respective lineups, there are some interesting takeaways. Atlanta basically used only six players in the OT win over the Knicks w/ four logging 40+ minutes. Outside of the top six in the rotation, HC Mike Budenholzer got only 12 pts from the rest of the team and Tim Hardaway Jr was particularly brutal, going 0 for 7 from the field. Meanwhile, SVG has been tinkering w/ his lineup and the move to bring Tobias Harris off the bench certainly seems to be working. Another reason I like the Pistons to bounce back here is the fact they are 25-10 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. 8* Detroit

10* Dayton (6:00 ET): This is the Atlantic 10 opener for both Dayton and LaSalle, the former coming in as the favorite to bag the regular season conference crown. The Flyers finished in a three-way tie atop the A-10 standings last year, along w/ St. Bonaventure and VCU. They are by no means a decided favorite to win the league in 2017, but they certainly are a "cut above" this evening's opponent, LaSalle. The Explorers finished in the A-10 basement last season at 4-14 SU in conference play and 9-22 SU overall. They already have six wins this year and played #1 Villanova relatively tough at a neutral setting. But that was still a double digit loss and this will be too. Dayton won't take this game lightly as they actually lost at LaSalle (as 11.5-pt favorites) last season. Lay the points. 

Considering Dayton was a 20-pt favorite when they hosted LaSalle last year, this seems like a really good value. The Explorers have lost 13 of their 14 all-time visits here. There was a bit of a concern over whether or not Flyers' leading scorer Charles Cooke (19.2 PPG) would play here due to a wrist injury, but HC Archie Miller has said "he's a go." He missed last week's game vs. VMI, but it hardly mattered as seven Flyers' scored in double figures en route to an easy 92-56 win. This team is shooting the ball preposterously well so far and against VMI they were better than 60% from the floor, including 55.6% from three-point range. Defensively, they are significantly stronger than LaSalle, which will ultimately be the difference here. 

It's not just that Dayton is better than LaSalle defensively, it's that the Explorers are pretty awful defensively. Actually, that's putting it mildly: they are one of the worst defensive teams in the entire country. Currently, they are allowing 83.2 points per game, which is 338th out of 351 teams. They are 349th when it comes to defending the three-point line at 43.1%. Considering what we just saw from Dayton in the last game, not to mention all season, LaSalle is going to give up a ton of points here. I've already played against the Explorers once this year and they lost 93-78 at Georgetown. Since then, they've won a pair of games decided by four points or less, over Fla Gulf Coast and Mercer. That game against Mercer, their first outside of Philly this year, went to triple overtime and actually saw them score their fewest pts in regulation to date. This shapes up as a total mismatch. 10* Dayton

10* West Virginia (4:00 ET): West Virginia has won and covered all four meetings w/ Oklahoma State the L2 seasons and is the always tenuous short road favorite this afternoon in Stillwater, the first Big 12 game for both. Typically, such a scenario would have me leaning the other way, but I simply have way too much regard for the Mountaineers and cannot for the life of me understand why this line isn't higher. Also, how is WVU only 11th in the polls? I have them rated as one of the five best teams in the country (at least!). Maybe it's because Oklahoma State now has Brad Underwood running things on the bench that this line is so low. Underwood, of course, previous served as HC at Stephen F Austin, who upset WVU in LY's NCAA Tournament. But that fact won't be lost on Bob Huggins and these Mountaineers players, who are out for revenge.

I took West Virginia exactly one week ago in their last game. They actually only led Northern Kentucky by seven at the half (this was in Morgantown), but put the clamps down late and pulled away, outscoring the Norse by 24 over the final 20 minutes. As discussed in LW's analysis, WVU is a very deep squad - sometimes going as deep as 13 players - and is also #1 in the country in forcing turnovers. They are top four nationally in defensive efficiency and top 14 in offensive efficiency. Six of their last seven wins have been by at least 27 pts. Sure, you might make the argument that this is a "true" road game, just their second of the season to date. Well, in their first they went to Virginia and won 66-57 as eight-point dogs, the lone non-27+ pt win over the L7 games, yet perhaps the most impressive victory of the bunch. 

Oklahoma State had to hire Underwood because the program had fallen on hard times under predecessor Travis Ford. The Cowboys went just 12-20 SU last season, so clearly they have a long way to go. They're already 10-2 SU for Underwood, but a 107-75 loss vs. North Carolina earlier in the year tells me they are nowhere near ready for an opponent of this caliber. Underwood is trying to build his team the same way Huggins has his, and in the same vein as we saw at SFA. But the problem here is that WVU is simply much better in all facets of the game right now. 10* West Virginia

8* Portland State (10:05 ET): Officially, Portland State hails from Big Sky country. However, the Vikings may want to petition to join the West Coast Conference. That's because already we've seen them pull off three outright wins over WCC foes, all on the road and all as underdogs of 8.5 pts or more. For the record, the three teams that they beat were: Pepperdine, San Francisco and Portland. Maybe PSU is the team that could finally unseat Gonzaga? In all seriousness, the Vikings appear to primed and ready to roll in tonight's conference opener vs. a North Dakota side that has dropped three in a row. These two are expected to be the top challengers to Weber State in the Big Sky, so a win would go a long way. I expect the home team to get the job done.

Portland State has won all four of its home games, by an average 33.8 points per game, though I should point out that none of those games were lined. (All four opponents were non-D1). The most recent visits came from Walla Walla exactly one week ago and that resulted in a 118-59 victory. But prior to that were the upsets of San Francisco and Portland. Against the latter, they impressively controlled the game most of the way, even leading by double digits at the half. With the exception of two games this year - losses at Arizona State and Loyola Marymount (another WCC team), the Vikings have scored a minimum of 77 pts every time out. Among all Big Sky teams, this one was tops offensively and record-wise through the non-conf slate.

North Dakota is 0-3 ATS head to head w/ PSU the L2 seasons, though they did win SU (by three) in LY's lone meeting (were -4 at home). Because Portland State was initially pegged so low in the Big Sky this season, we are still able to grab some nice value in this spot. As mentioned above, North Dakota did not finish its non-conference schedule well, though a double digit loss at Iowa was to be expected. They've been off for seven full days, which could actually work against them (rest vs. rust?). In the end, all we are looking at here is a team winning SU on its home court. I don't think that's too much to ask in this matchup. 8* Portland State

8* Under Thunder/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): Russell Westbrook has basically become a "one man band" for Oklahoma City as he is almost single-handedly carrying this offense. En route to Westbrook potentially becoming the 1st player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple double over the course of a season, the team's overall offensive efficiency has plummeted all the way down to 15th from LY's second place ranking. Surprisingly though, the Thunder are up in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. Of course, Memphis tops the league in that department. Unfortunately for the Grizz, they are also 29th in offensive efficiency while playing at the third slowest pace in the league. This one has all the makings of an Under.

Oklahoma City has won and covered each of its last four games, averaging 114 points per game in the process. But they were hardly facing any defensive stalwarts. Let it be noted that their last game, a 106-94 win at Miami, stayed Under the total. That result improved the team to 6-1 Under when coming off three consecutive victories this season. The game even stayed Under despite the Thunder shooting better than 51% from the field. I seriously doubt they'll match that percentage here against the stingy Grizzlies, who only allow 94.7 points per game (on 41.1 FG%) at home. Memphis is off uncharacteristically poor B2B efforts defensively, both on the road, so expect them to "tighten the screws" tonight. 

There are only three teams in the entire league that both score and allow less than 100 PPG. Memphis is one of them (Utah and Detroit are the others). From that perspective, this play looks like a great value. Like I said earlier, Memphis is one of the weakest offensive teams in the league (only Philadelphia averages fewer points per possession) and they play at a really slow pace to boot. Coming off B2B high-scoring games, which is clearly atypical, we should see a "return to normalcy" tonight. Furthermore, there's a chance Mike Conley (missed last game) could sit out again due to his ongoing toe issue. While all three meetings last year between these teams went Over, clearly the Thunder are very different. Westbrook, as good as he is, can not send a game Over the total by himself. 8* Under Thunder/Grizzlies

10* Over Heat/Hornets (7:05 ET): Charlotte won last night in Orlando, 120-101 as 4.5-pt chalk. That was a nice bounce back from Monday's embarrassing 120-118 loss in Brooklyn. As if you couldn't tell from the scores there, both games easily went Over the total. I expect the same here as they return home to face another Southeast Division rival, Miami. The Heat are not as bad as their 10-22 SU record might seem to indicate, but they have lost five of six w/ the lone win coming at home against the Lakers. These teams have a notable history of staying Under the total when matching up, particularly here in the Queen City. But for the most part those were better defensive teams. Take the Over here.

For the record, 22 of the previous 28 meetings here in Charlotte have stayed Under the total. That includes all seven the previous two seasons. Remember that these two did match up in a first round playoff series last year. The Heat prevailed there in seven games w/ each of the last five games staying Under. So too did the 1st meeting of 2016-17, which was the second game of the year for both sides. The final score there (game played in Miami) was 97-91 in the Hornets' favor, though both teams shot the ball very poorly overall. Charlotte was 38.0% while Miami was 37.2%. The Heat shot that poorly despite actually making 14 of 34 three-point attempts. That means they were just 18 of 52 on two-point attempts, which is head-scratchingly awful. They also missed seven of 20 FT attempts.

So, what has changed for this go around? Well, for starters, I obviously expect both teams to shoot the ball a whole lot better. Charlotte has scored a combined 238 points its last two games and averaging 113 PPG over its last five. The Over is 10-3 for them this season when matched up against a team w/ a losing record. Both teams have slipped in defensive efficiency this year compared to last. It should be noted that the Hornets allowed the Magic to shoot 59% in the first half last night. Miami allowed OKC to shoot better than 51% on Tuesday, a game where they gave up 106 points. They've allowed 100+ pts in 13 of the past 17 games and two of the exceptions saw them allow 98 and 99. 10* Over Heat/Hornets

10* Purdue (8:30 ET): The Big 10 Conference enjoyed a renaissance on the football field this year, challenging the all-mighty SEC as the best in the land. However, somewhat quietly, the level of play we've seen in Big 10 basketball has ironically faded at the same time. During the Big 10's time as arguably the strongest league nationally, Iowa was a program that never really lived up to the hype. The Hawkeyes certainly aren't as strong now as they've been in past years, thus I shudder to think what the reaction will be from the always temperamental HC Fran McCaffery here as his team faces what I have ranked as the standard-bearer for Big 10 basketball in 2016, Purdue. I look for the Boilermakers to roll tonight in West Lafayette. Lay the points.

Really, one could make case that any one of three teams could win the Big 10 this year. Iowa is not among that group. Purdue is, along w/ Wisconsin and Indiana. But as stated earlier, I currently have the Boilermakers rated as the best of the lot. They finished the non-conference slate at 11-2 SU w/ a 46-pt rout of Norfolk State seven days ago. Their only losses so far have come to Villanova and Louisville, who are a combined 23-1 straight up. The loss to 'Nova did come here in West Lafayette, but otherwise they're 7-0 SU at home and still outscoring visitors by a whopping 24.5 points per game. Since losing at Louisville on 11.30, Matt Painter's team has covered all five of its lined games, including an impressive 86-81 win over Notre Dame. Every other win has come by at least 24 points. This is a loaded roster, which contains the Big 10's leading scorer (Peter Jok at 22.6 PPG) and Caleb Swanigan, who just went for 32 points and 20 rebounds in the last game.

Making this play all the more appetizing is that it's a double revenge spot for Purdue as they lost both meetings last season. In the game here at home, they blew a 17-point halftime lead and somehow lost despite holding the Hawkeyes to just 20 first half points. This year, Iowa is not as strong as they've already lost five times, including a game to Nebraska-Omaha. The Hawkeyes have played just one "true" road game thus far and lost it (by double digits) to the same Notre Dame team that Purdue just beat. Including neutral site games, Iowa is just 1-3 away from Iowa City. They, like Purdue, come in with plenty of rest, but the problem there is an 18-40 ATS record when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest. Purdue has been one of the best teams to bet on in recent years, going 46-25 ATS in all games L3 seasons, including 7-1 as a favorite so far in 2016. 10* Purdue

8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): I played both of these teams on the day after Christmas. Truth be told, I feel it "should" have been a 2-0 sweep. Detroit certainly held up its end of the bargain, blowing out an undermanned Cleveland team (no LeBron James), 106-90. It certainly helped the Pistons that the Cavs were off a huge win over Golden State on Christmas (reason James was held out). Meanwhile, around the same time that Detroit was beating Cleveland, Milwaukee also appeared to be en route to a double digit win in Washington. They led the Wizards most of the way after jumping out to an early 7-0 lead and the game was 96-86 in their favor w/ just over seven minutes to go. But from there, they were outscored 21-6 and I had to settle for a 'push.' I look for atonement tonight from the Bucks, who are the better team getting points.

The Bucks come off three straight 'home and home' sets, which was some quirky scheduling. They swept Chicago, got swept by Cleveland and then split with the Wizards. Here, they will face a Detroit team that they lost to very early in the year, 98-83 as seven-point underdogs in the Motor City. Judging by the lines, the Bucks have clearly picked up some respect from the oddsmakers as they should have. Or is it that the Pistons have lost some? Probably a little of both. I don't read much into the fact that Detroit just went 2-0 ATS against LY's NBA Finalists. What a break it was to face those teams, both at home, sandwiched around the NBA Finals rematch on X-Mas Day. Prior to beating the LeBron-less Cavs on Monday, the Pistons had lost five in a row, four of those coming by double digits.

While Milwaukee perhaps might still be a little short-handed tonight, they're still in a better spot than the last time they came calling to the Palace of Auburn Hills. On October 30th, they were in the second game of a back to back and had just won a tough two-point game the night previous. While some role players might be MIA, the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, who damn well better be an All-Star this year. Outside of Tony Snell, no one made a three-pointer against the Wizards, something that will not happen tonight. Nor will the Pistons be able to benefit from the Bucks shooting a poor 38% from the floor like the LeBron-less Cavs did Monday night. Detroit, typically a poor shooting team in its own right, was 16 of 28 from three-point range against Cleveland as well. That won't be duplicated here as for the year they're just 34.4% from behind the arc. 8* Milwaukee

10* Utah (10:35 ET): I really like the Jazz in this spot. Granted, they have not been performing well of late. But I still have them ranked in the top seven in the league despite three consecutive losses. Two were to Golden State and Toronto, who are my top two ranked teams. The third came by one point. After having the Holiday weekend off, I anticipate this team will come out highly motivated and take advantage of an opponent ripe for a letdown. The Lakers beat the Clippers on Christmas Day, but remain a downtrodden franchise as it was only their second win in December, the other coming at Philadelphia's expense. Lay the number here.

Really, the fact that the Jazz are even competitive in the Western Conference is really impressive given all the injuries that they have had to deal with. George Hill and Alec Burks remain out, though Rodney Hood is expected back tonight after dealing with the flu. That said, the won-loss record could certainly be better. It's a bit strange to see that they've played only three games decided by three points or less. But they definitely gave one away Wednesday to Sacramento. Still, I'm encouraged by the fact that over half of the team's wins have come by double digits and they've also cleaned up against the bottom feeders, going 13-5 vs. those teams at .500 or below. The Lakers, for those keeping score at home, are 12-22 SU.

While the Lakers may have snapped an 11-game win streak against their tenants and city rival on X-Mas day, the Clippers were clearly short-handed as they were without both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. So let's not give Luke Walton's team too much credit, okay. LA continues to rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency (currently 29th). That's a far cry from Utah's fourth place ranking. In fact, there's a 15.4 point per game differential between what the Jazz and Lakers respectively allow. Not only do the Lakers have just two wins this month, they are only 4-10 ATS. Utah is 6-1 ATS the L7 times its has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, including perfect 3-0 ATS this season. 10* Utah

10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): In the rugged ACC, Syracuse is on the verge of becoming somewhat irrelevant. Perhaps that's an overreaction. After all, the program was just in the Final Four (as a 10-seed) last season. But it does appear as if another mediocre regular season is in the cards, judging by recent results. The Orange are nowhere close to the level of North Carolina, Duke, Virginia and Louisville. That become patently obvious when they lost outright, by 33, to former Big East foe St. John's here at home, six days ago. They were 14-point favorites in that game. It was the Orange's second home loss in three games and the worst ever at the Carrier Dome. But there is a precedent for a bounce back and keep in mind this team used to never lose non-conference home games. I'll still lay the points here. 

Syracuse was simply atrocious from the field against St. John's, which partly explains the shocking result. They were just 32.8% overall, including 4 of 24 from three-point range. This is the first time in Jim Boeheim's coaching career that he's lost five times in the non-conference portion of the schedule. St. John's has generally been awful under Chris Mullin, so I really can't state how shocking a loss, particularly the margin it came by, was. But, as I said earlier, there is precedent for a bounce back here. After losing to Georgetown on 12.17, two days later the Orange blew out Eastern Michigan here at the Dome, 105-57. I expect something similar, maybe not quite as severe, here. The team is 5-2 ATS when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. 

Cornell is the opponent Monday and they are a regular on the Syracuse schedule. Not surprisingly, the head to head matchups have been lopsided in favor of the Orange. It was a 21-point win last year. Cornell is not as strong this season as they have only three wins, one of them coming their last time out against SE Missouri State. The 78-62 win there represents their largest margin of victory - easily - all season. Away from home, where the Big Red has played most of its games, they are giving up over 80 points per game. Offensively, they have only three players averaging more than six points per game. 10* Syracuse

8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I pounced on this line the second I saw it as I believe there's a good chance Cleveland will be resting stars following it's thrilling 109-108 victory over Golden State on Christmas Day. Regardless of who does or does not rest for the Cavs and what the line ends up being, this play stands. Detroit did not play Christmas Day and is a desperate team right now. They've lost five in a row now after falling here at home to Golden State on Friday. They did cover there (barely!), however, and this is somewhat of a "lucky" scheduling quirk in that they draw the Warriors and Cavs sandwiched around their big NBA Finals rematch.

The defending NBA Champs are now 22-6 and have won 10 of their last 11 games, the lone loss being a situation where they rested LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (at Memphis on December 14th). That trio combined for an incredible 76 points, 25 rebounds, 17 assists and 10 steals yday. You have to wonder what any of them would have left in the tank for tonight. Two of the Cavs' six losses this year have been w/ James out of the lineup. They also haven't had to play much on the road lately. They did trail the Warriors by 14 early in the fourth quarter yday and I'm still a bit concerned about the team's defense, which still only ranks 13th in efficiency. That will have to improve if they are to repeat as World Champs.

Detroit is a good defensive team (7th in efficiency). They've slipped some in that department of late, but again, this is a desperate team entering the final week of 2016. Despite the recent struggles though, the Pistons are one of just seven teams in the East to have outscored opponents this year. They are allowing only 94.0 PPG at home. They are 3-1 ATS as home dogs factoring in the Warriors game. Again, I expect Cleveland to rest at least one (likely two?) of its superstar trio. As of press time, both LeBron and Kyrie's statuses are questionable. Again, regardless if they play not, this play stands. With the injury to JR Smith, the Cavs are a depth-shy team. They used only eight players Sunday and one of them (DeAndre Liggins) was held scoreless. 8* Detroit

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): What an odd scheduling stretch it's been for the Bucks. Tonight's battle in the Nation's Capital will complete their third consecutive home and home series w/ an Eastern Conference opponent. The first, with Chicago, saw them take both games in impressive fashion. The second, with Cleveland, brought two tough losses (one in overtime). This one, with Washington, started out by them winning 123-96 as three-point favorites on Friday. Therefore, given that result and what we've seen from the two teams over the course of the season, I don't really understand this line. The Bucks have been the better team all year long and while the Wizards have had a profitable December, Friday's result illustrated that they still have a long way to go. Take the points. 

Though currently only .500, Milwaukee has the look of a playoff team to me. Over the L4 seasons, they have alternated playoff and non-playoff years, so that pattern works now works in their favor for 2016-17 after dipping down to 33 wins LY. They are one of only five Eastern Conference squads to be currently outscoring opponent by 2.0 points per game and I like the young talent on hand here. Particularly Giannis Antetokounmpo, who scored a career-high 39 points on Friday. If this man is not an All-Star, there should be a federal investigation. The team scored 73 pts in the first half and shot 56.3% for the game against the Wizards. While those marks will prove difficult to match tonight, especially on the road, note Washington is 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency. The Bucks were able to score 66 pts in the paint against them on Friday.

Coming into the year, many (myself included) had thought the Wizards might be the young team ready to step up in the East. Thus far, that obviously has not happened. They have been a better team at home and like I said earlier; they've been better in December (7-2 ATS L9 games). But, to show how the market regards them, this will be the first time in the last seven games they have been favored. They were favored at home vs. Milwaukee (-4.5) back on December 10th and wound up covering by half a point. They won't be as fortunate this time around. 10* Milwaukee

10* Over LA Clippers/LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Even after factoring in the alleged home court advantage for the Lakers here (both teams play their home games at Staples Center), this line seems way too low. Then again, considering the Clippers could be w/o both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, maybe the oddsmakers do have it right. We know Griffin is out and Paul is currently listed as questionable due to a hamstring issue. Playing without either on Friday night, the team turned in a real dud, losing at home to lowly Dallas by a score of 90-88. That game obviously stayed well Under the total. So did the Lakers' game Friday night, a 109-90 loss at Orlando. But given what we've come to expect from the two teams over the course of the season and the fact the rivalry is long overdue for an Over, I'm going w/ the Over here. 

The Clippers have not gone Under in consecutive games for some time now. In fact, the last time it happened was November 7th & 9th. It's been 23 games w/o it happening again. Obviously, not having Paul or Griffin would be a big blow to the offense. But on Friday, the bench actually scored 52 points while Jamal Crawford had a team-high 26. The Lakers are an awful team defensively as they rank 29th in efficiency, allowing 1.1 points per possession. They allow more than 110 points per game and have allowed at least 100 in 12 of the past 13 games, their lone win (over Philly) being the exception. The Clippers are 14-3 Over when facing a team w/ a losing record and if Paul does play, it will simply be an added bonus!

Defensively, the Clippers started the year at an incredible pace. They have since fallen off, somewhat dramatically. They still rank fifth overall in efficiency, but considering they were 1st less than a month ago and on an almost historic pace, that's a pretty severe drop. The team they last played (Dallas) ranks near the bottom of the league offensively, so I consider that a one night reprieve for the Clips. The Lakers can score as they average 109.8 PPG here at Staples Center. They did not shoot well in the Orlando game (35.6 FG%), but should certainly improve upon that here and the team is also getting Julius Randle back in the lineup. 10* Over Clippers/Lakers

8* Boston (12:05 ET): Taking a look at the current Eastern Conference landscape, it becomes quite clear that there are two teams - Cleveland and Toronto - well ahead of the pack. There are also three teams - Miami, Brooklyn and Philadelphia (especially the latter two) - that have already fallen off the playoff pace. Everyone else (10 teams) is bunched up, seperated by no more than four games. Of those 10 teams, the Knicks belong near the bottom. Granted, record-wise, they're not just middle of the pack, but actually near the top. But this is a team that's been outscored by about 2.2 pts per game (similar differential to Miami) and is a lousy 3-9 SU vs. teams w/ a winning record. They also rank 25th in defensive efficiency.

Coming into MSG on Christmas Day will be the Knicks' division rival, Boston. The Celtics were expected to be the top contender to Cleveland in the East this year, but so far that has NOT been the case as it's Toronto instead. But Boston certainly is in discussion for the third best team in the conference. Coming off an outright loss (at home) to Oklahoma City on Friday night, motivation should not be an issue for the road team here. Nor is the price range judging from the fact that this season has seen the C's go a perfect 6-0 against the spread as a road favorite of three points or less. Overall, they are 12-5 ATS on the road, one of the best marks in the league. 

Ironically, the Knicks have the best ATS home record in the league (11-4). But, again, that's largely a byproduct of being undervalued against bad teams. Case in point; they're off B2B wins and covers over Indiana and Orlando. It appears as if the media will be infatuated with Kristaps Porzingis' status here. But I believe that Celtics PG Isaiah Thomas is the player to watch in this game. He scored 29 points in the 115-87 win over the Knicks last month while Porizingis played one of his worst games of the season, missing 10 of 15 shots. Thomas almost led the team to victory Friday by scoring 15 consecutive pts in the 4Q, but ultimately it was not enough. But the Knicks are a weaker opponent than the Thunder. Being a top 10 team in offensive efficiency, the Celtics should be able to score plenty here. 8* Boston

10* Over Warriors/Pistons (7:35 ET): The Warriors went Under again last night (ninth straight time!) and I'm sad to report that I was caught holding an Over ticket on that one. Though I'd like to point out that at the outset, it certainly did appear as if the game w/ the Nets would be quite the high-scoring affair. It was 34-33 (Nets!) after the first quarter, but from there every quarter would see one of the two teams score less than 20 points. Two of those belonged to Brooklyn, who was held to just 36 pts in the second half! As I mentioned in yday's analysis, Golden State not only ranks #2 in offensive efficiency, they are also #2 in defensive efficiency. But in the second night of a back to back and w/ Cleveland on deck (X-Mas day game!), I expect that defensive efficiency NOT to be on full display here. Take the Over.

The Pistons are in a terrible way right now as they've gone 0-4 SU, ATS their L4 games, all of them double digit losses. HC Stan Van Gundy ripped the team earlier this week, but it seemed to have no effect as they lost 98-86 to Memphis here at home on Wednesday. It was the third consecutive game scoring 90 or fewer points and fifth time in the last six getting held to 95 or fewer. That and the fact the L4 head to head meetings between these two squads have all stayed Under certainly appears to set a somewhat "dangerous" precedent for this play. But ... note that Detroit is 13-3 Over the L3 seasons following three consecutive Unders. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark this season!

We need not worry about Golden State's offense most likely; they come in averaging a league-leading 117.4 points per game (4.4 more than every other team) and their games, on average, are also the highest scoring in the league. Save for games against Utah and Memphis, both of whom are top three in defensive efficiency, this will be the lowest O/U line set for any of the nine straight games that have gone Under. Detroit is not a top three team in defensive efficiency, but they are seventh. Still, they've also faced off w/ some pretty weak offensive opponents of late. In a game I think will be "closer than the experts think," I look for an Over. 10* Over Warriors/Pistons

10* West Virginia (4:00 ET): I've seen terms like "upstart" thrown around when referring to Northern Kentucky, who comes to us by way of the Horizon League. And perhaps that's true; the Norse are 9-3 straight up in this still young season, having already pulled off three outright upsets. Overall, they are 7-1 ATS at the betting window, including a perfect 4-0 when getting points. But, needless to say, it's a big step up in class from their previous opponent (NAIA school Brescia) to West Virginia, who almost everyone considers one of the seven best teams in the country. Well, except the pollsters, but what to do they know? Bob Huggins' Mountaineers are 8-0 SU in Morgantown w/ an avg MOV of 41 points per game! So, yeah, don't be afraid to lay this number, which should be several points higher.

WVU is a deep team. Huggins has elected to go w/ a 13 man rotation at times. Given the defensive pressure we see from them, that's probably a wise move at this juncture of the season. Currently, the Mountaineers lead the country in forcing turnovers at a whopping 26.3 per game. They are a top four team in terms of defensive efficiency and also top 15 on the offensive end. The lone loss came at a neutral setting against Temple (by four) and since then the Mounties have won six in a row, five of those coming by at least 27 points. The one exception, ironically, was perhaps the most impressive in the streak: a 66-57 win at Virginia. Despite beating Radford 84-57 three days ago, Huggins was sure to label his team's second half performance as "really lethargic," so expect this to be a motivated favorite this afternoon. For the record, while WVU was outscored in the second half by Radford (35-31), they also entered halftime w/ a 53-22 advantage.

Maybe Northern Kentucky is an "upstart." But here they're simply "overmatched." Norse HC John Brannen wasn't exactly pleased w/ his team's last performance, despite it also being a 20+ pt win. But the difference between NKU and WVU is that the former is in no position to "name the score" here. Picking to finish seventh in the 10-team Horizon League, the Norse have taken advantage of some generous lines thus far. Remember, their last two opponents were Eastern Washington (maybe the biggest overachiever in terms of wins & losses in the country) and a NAIA school. They have lost to Austin Peay, NC Central and Illinois by 15. Without question, this will be the toughest opponent they face all year. 10* West Virginia