10* Dallas (8:05 ET): Suffice to say, the "glory days" are officially over for Mark Cuban's Mavs. I would think that if Dirk Nowitziki and the rest of the current roster walked into the "Shark Tank" studio tomorrow, Cuban would tell them "I'm out." The team got off to a rather ugly 0-4 SU and ATS start to the season, but last night they finally did crack into the win column w/ a 103-94 upset of Memphis (were 3-pt underdogs) at home. Now comes the second game of the home and home w/ the division rival Grizzlies and I'm going to call for the Mavs to cash - as underdogs - again. Obviously, with tonight's game being in Memphis, the oddsmakers are going to be more generous. That's good, because the Grizzlies are not a team I typically like to lay points with, especially this many.

Memphis' start to the season was just the opposite of Dallas' as they opened 3-0 SU and ATS. I took them Monday in what turned out to be an upset of Houston on the road (no Chris Paul for the Rockets remember). It is worth nothing though that the Grizz trailed by as many as 10 in the fourth quarter of that game, before storming back to end the game on a 20-2 run! Yes, you have to tip your cap to David Fizdale's team for beating both Golden State and Houston thus far, but both wins came in the underdog role. Some trends that go against Memphis here are that they are 4-17 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive unders and 14-28 ATS off a division game. 

Last night, it was Dennis Smith Jr leading the way w/ 19 points and five assists for the Mavs in the 103-94 upset. Smith's team never trailed after taking a commanding 32-18 lead after the first quarter. Dallas is now 6-3 SU/ATS the L9 head to head meetings vs. Memphis and will be going for their third straight win and cover tonight. A major plus will be having Chandler Parsons back in the lineup after he was given last night off due to still not being medically cleared to play both games of a back to back. Dallas didn't have nearly the same kind of results against Golden State and Houston that Memphis did, but their other two losses both came by six points or fewer. This is some good early season value on a dog playing the second game of a home and home. 10* Dallas

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Coming into the year, the Suns were projected to be at the very bottom of the league and sure enough, there's already been plenty of turmoil in the first two weeks. HC Earl Watson was fired after the team started 0-3, prompting PG Eric Bledsoe to (now infamously) tweet "I don't want to be here anymore." Bledsoe told management that the tweet had nothing to do w/ the team, but rather him being at a hair salon w/ his girlfriend at the time! (Can't make this stuff up). That equivalent of "the dog ate my homework" didn't fool management, who immediately sent him home and it's now likely Bledsoe has played his last game w/ the team. We saw a positive response from those Bledsoe has left behind as Monday brought a 117-115 victory for the Suns (over the Kings). What the ongoing controversy has done here is create a little bit of value on this team. I'm taking the points tonight as they are facing a tired opponent. 

The opponent in question here is Utah, who started its season 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU). But the Jazz ran into the Clippers Tuesday night and were soundly beaten, 102-84 as five-point road underdogs. A lot of times, at least early in the season, we'll find teams that are undervalued in the second game of a back to back. That's not the case here though w/ Utah favored. The Jazz have not been able to top 100 pts since the season opener and the second of B2B road games isn't a likely spot for them to erase that trend. The current average of 95.8 PPG is second lowest in the league, ahead of only the Knicks. While some came into this year thinking the Jazz could still make the playoffs (8 seed?) despite an exodus of talent, I just don't see it as their division (Northwest) is tough w/ the other four teams all thinking playoffs as well. In addition to Gordon Hayward leaving for Boston, PG Dante Exum is out indefinitely and George Hill also missed last night's game and is listed as questionable for tonight. 

Give credit to the Suns for the way the played Monday. Yes, they may have won by only two points, but they came out clearly inspired after the coaching change and led by as many as 22 in the first quarter. We see this constantly in the NBA where teams tend to perform a bit better post-HC change as the players are motivated to either improve or maintain their current standing within the organization. Though 0-7 (SU) vs. Utah the previous two seasons, Phoenix has played them tough during this time, particularly last year when they covered all three games. None of the losses came by more than seven points and w/ Utah being both unrested and unable to blow the opposition out, they are prime fade material here. 10* Phoenix

8* Over Nuggets/Hornets (7:05 ET): The two teams involved here have, thus far, conspired to go a perfect 6-0 Under against the total. That's 3-0 each. Their respective points scored + allowed on a per game basis are remarkably similar w/ Denver games averaging 196.7 PPG and Charlotte's averaging 196.4. For the Nuggets, such low scoring affairs are a radical departure from what we saw last season when they were the top Over team in the league (50-31-1 all games) and nearly 223 total PPG were being scored. So something tells me that this string of low-scoring games is about to end soon. Sure enough, the previous two seasons have seen them go 6-3 Over when coming off three or more consecutive Unders. This game will go Over the total. 

Charlotte is a team that, before the season, I tabbed to be as improved as any in the league. Unfortunately though, they've yet to shoot the ball well in any game, particularly the two on the road. They lost up in Milwaukee Monday night, 103-94, shooting just 42.3% from the floor. The season opener, also on the road, saw them shoot below 40% in a 102-90 loss at Detroit. However, in their lone home game so far, they did score 109 in a win over the Atlanta Hawks. Home is where tonight's game is and I'll call for the best shooting night of the season for the Hornets. An issue this team has faced in the early going is lack of depth. Four key players were out for the Milwaukee game, yet the bench still outscored its Bucks' counterparts 42-30. Frank Kaminsky is averaging 14.3 PPG "off the pine" so far. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is expected back tonight after missing Monday due to the death of his grandmother.

Denver, like Charlotte in the East, expects to be a "player" in the Western Conference this season. Most believe this will be a playoff team and I've seen them pegged as high as fifth in the pecking order. But something else they share in common w/ Charlotte is a 1-2 start. That one win also came at home against a bad team, Sacramento, 96-79 on Saturday. They've since dropped a game to Washington (also at home) despite the best efforts of Nikola Jokic, who scored 29 pts in a losing effort. Also worth noting is that in their lone road game so far, the Nuggets did allow the opposition (Utah) to shoot better than 50% from the floor. Both of these up and coming teams are in line for an improved effort on the offensive end tonight and that's what I believe will lead to an Over cashing for the first time on each side. 8* Over Nuggets/Hornets

8* New York (7:35 ET): I cashed a live dog last night (Memphis) and some of the same aspects from that selection are in play here. Boston was a team that made "My Most Overrated List" coming into the year. Yes, the team that finished #1 in the Eastern Conference LY added Kyrie Irving. But they also lost a lot in the offseason and I do not believe the team is better off here in 2017-18. I certainly don't buy them as being better than Cleveland, who they lost to on Opening Night. That loss was made even worse by the horrific injury suffered by Gordon Hayward, who is done for the year. The following night, the Celtics lost in Milwaukee. They did then win for the 1st time, beating Philadelphia (as a dog!) on Friday. But back to the role of favorite tonight, I have little interest in backing them here. 

Now, it figures to be a long year for the Knicks. They've started 0-2, losing to Oklahoma City and Detroit. The loss to the Pistons, at home, took place Saturday. So, like the Celtics, they're well rested here. Something odd that took place between these Atlantic Division rivals last year is the road team won outright in three of the four meetings.One positive I see for the Knicks this year is that the Carmelo Anthony drama is now over (traded him to OKC), opening the door for Kristaps Porzingis to lead the team. Porzingis has scored 30+ pts in both games so far. No Knick has done that to start a season since Patrick Ewing almost a quarter century ago. Also, note the Knicks jumped out to a 21-pt lead over Detroit Saturday night. Enes Kanter is another player to watch here as he has averaged 13.4 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in his career against Boston.

The Celtics have not shot the ball well so far (41.8% overall). Irving has really struggled the L2 games, going 14 for 42 overall including 3 of 12 from three-point range. Marcus Smart missed the Philly game w/ an ankle injury. While he is listed as probable to return here, we know Marcus Morris remains out. With only FOUR players back from LY's team, we knew there would be growing pains in Beantown. The Hayward injury has only exacerbated that and right now I want zero part of laying this many points with them. 8* New York

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Houston is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) and most impressive of all is they won the last two games w/o the services of Chris Paul. That's after beating the Warriors on opening night. So this is a team certainly coming into Monday w/ a lot of confidence. But tonight they'll be hosting a team that also holds a win over the Warriors, 111-101 as 8.5-pt dogs, that being Memphis. The Grizzlies only have two games under their belt so far, both wins, as they opened w/ a double digit win over New Orleans. This is a team that I expected to regress a bit in 2017, but as an underdog (like they are here), there's probably some value. They've split eight games w/ the Rockets the last two years and I see tonight's Southwest Division matchup being a close one. Take the points.

Center Marc Gasol led the way against the Dubs w/ 34 points Saturday. Seven other players also scored in double figures. One of them, Mike Conley, only shot 3 of 14 from the floor. I'd certainly expect him to improve on the offensive end tonight. It was impressive that they held Golden State under 40 percent shooting and even more impressive that they led by as many as 19 points in the third quarter.

Houston is w/o Paul (knee) indefinitely and that's eventually got to catch up with them. While they did win big Saturday here at home over Dallas (107-91), their first two wins were both by five points or less. The oddsmakers set lofty expectations for this team (55.5 wins) and even w/ a healthy Paul, I didn't think they'd live up to them. Yes, the components of last year's team are still here - most notably James Harden - and the defense seems to be much improved. They beat Golden State thanks to a rare Warriors' fourth quarter cold streak and the other two wins were against Dallas and Sacramento, two of the very worst teams in the West. I just think this spread is too high.  10* Memphis

10* Portland (8:35 ET): Coming into the year, there were seven teams that I considered "locks" for the playoffs in the Western Conference: Golden St (obviously), Houston, San Antonio, OKC, Minnesota, Denver and the Clippers. Maybe I should start thinking about making it eight and completing the field as Portland is 2-0 SU w/ a pair of double digit road wins. Now critics can point to who those wins came against, that being Phoenix and Indiana, two of the worst teams in the league. But still, blowing them out by a combined 66 points is quite impressive. Remember the Blazers were the 8-seed last year (lost in 1st round to GSW) and the 5th seed the year before that. I like their chances of making it a perfect 3-0 SU road trip to start the year, as they draw Milwaukee in an ideal spot. 

Both teams are in the second game of a back to back here. Portland won 114-96 in Indiana Friday while the Bucks lost 116-97 here at home to Cleveland. That Milwaukee loss is likely to have a carryover effect as Bucks fans are thinking their team can be the Cavs' top challenger in the East this season, but last night's game said otherwise. Watching that game, it was pretty clear to me that the Bucks are not a deep team and lean too heavily on Giannis Antetokounmpo. "The Greek Freak" accounted for over one-third of his team's points last night, shooting 15 of 22 from the floor. Everybody else combined to go a woeful 23 of 60 (38.3%). The Bucks are 6-14 ATS the previous two seasons when off a SU loss as a favorite. Their first game saw them be the beneficiary of the opponent (Boston) being off a demoralizing loss, ironically also to Cleveland. 

Portland opened its year w/ the biggest Opening Night blowout in league history, beating Phoenix by 48 points. Then last night, they again dominated from start to finish, building an 18-point lead after three quarters and then coasting from there. In order to complete the perfect road trip, the Blazers will have to reverse a bit of recent history as they've not won here in Milwaukee since 2013 and were swept in the season series last year. But the two games last year were only decided by a combined 11 pts. Neither time did Portland shoot well, although they actually blew a 58-51 halftime lead in the visit here to the Bradley Center. I believe they will reverse the recent trend and pick up a win. Take the points. 10* Portland

10* Over Hawks/Hornets (7:05 ET): These two division rivals are expected to trend in very opposite directions in 2017-18. You don't have to dig very deep to understand why. Atlanta has dismantled its roster after years of mediocrity and early playoff exits. Believe it or not, the Hawks own the East's longest active playoff streak at 10 consecutive seasons, but that will almost assuredly end this year as oddsmakers aren't even forecasting them for 30 wins this year. Let's also throw in the fact that despite finishing 43-39 SU LY, the Hawks were actually outscored over the course of the season and benefited from an extremely fortunate 5-0 SU record in OT games. The Hornets were just the opposite as they went 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less (were 0-6 in OT!), thus nullifying the fact they actually outscored their opponents! Thus it should not be surprising to you that I have them right at the top of my "Most Improved" list for this season.

However, the script that I am writing for the respective seasons did not play out in each team's opener. Atlanta went to Dallas and won outright 117-111, shooting 51.1% from the floor, including 9 of 18 from three-point range. They were led by Dennis Schroeder's 28 points and also got a huge lift off the bench from Marco Belinelli, who scored 20. As for Charlotte, they suffered a rather ugly 102-90 defeat at the hands of Detroit Wednesday night. They shot only 39.7% from the floor, including 9 of 30 from three-point range. Take out Kemba Walker's 24 points and the shooting numbers begin to get really ugly. HC Steve Clifford has indicated that he may start tinkering w/ his starting lineup. I have no unearthly idea why Cody Zeller did not start the first game.

These division rivals have met eight times the previous two seasons. All eight games have stayed Under, which is quite the trend. Given how well Atlanta shot the ball in Dallas, you might be surprised to learn that I'm not projecting much decline tonight. That's because outside of Schroeder, none of the other four starters topped 10 points against the Mavs. Collectively, we're likely to get more production from that quartet tonight, which will counteract any decline from Schroeder and/or Belinelli. Charlotte is all but a lock to shoot better tonight (at home) compared to their season opener. Save for an ugly loss in Atlanta late in the year, the Hornets scored at least 100 pts in all other meetings w/ the Hawks last year. This isn't a very high total - at least by modern NBA standards - and I'm calling for the game to go Over. 10* Over Hawks/Hornets

8* New York (8:05 ET): In an attempt to compete w/ the historically great Warriors, OKC has elected to join the "super team" fad, adding both Paul George and Carmelo Anthony in the offseason. Alongside Russell Westbrook, that triumverate will be among the most talented "Big 3" any team has outside of Oakland. But the negative of that is you're going to see inflated lines such as this one. Thus, there will often be value in FADING the Thunder, especially early on when all the new pieces are learning to gel. The Knicks being the opponent in tonight's season opener works two ways. Yes, no one is expecting anything from the Knicks this year. But because of that the line is even more inflated than I thought it would be and I'll gladly grab a double digit spread in Game 1.

The Knicks have been a complete disaster even before Phil Jackson was foolish handed the keys to the organization. They are coming off B2B 50+ loss seasons and bordering on being irrelevant. However, with Anthony now gone, maybe they can now perhaps concentrate on moving forward? It was a winless preseason, but that hardly matters. Kristaps Porzingis was the Knicks' best player last year and w/ Anthony gone, he has an even better chance of individual success due to losing a ball-dominant teammate. The Anthony trade netted Enes Kanter, who is another good player. Again, I'm not so crazy to think NY can win this game outright, but the points are plentiful, particularly for a first game. 

For OKC, I like the George addition, but Anthony and Westbrook playing together will certainly be interesting. Both are ball dominant players and "this just in" ... there's only one ball. Westbrook carried the Thunder to 47 wins last season, so I do understand the projection of 54.5 for this season. But not sure they'll quite get there. It's a tough Northwest Division that they play in, plus I have them ranked as only the fourth best team in the West, behind Golden State, Houston and San Antonio. Depth is still a bit of a concern. The team had a (ever so slightly) negative efficiency rating last year (allowed more points per 100 possessions than they scored) and ranked only 17th offensively despite all of Westbrook's individual accolades. Going from one player (Westbrook) "carrying the load" to sharing the burden w/ two other former All-Stars is going to be a transition for the mercurial Westbrook and I just do not expect the Thunder to be a "well oiled machine" this early in the season. Anthony may try and "press" (to the detriment of the team) given that he's facing his former team here. 8* New York

8* Washington (7:05 ET): Philadelphia, believe it or not, was the top ATS team in the league a year ago as they finished 49-33 at the betting window. That and all the young talent they've accumulated during this rebuilding process have them as a VERY trendy playoff pick for this season, which would be quite the remarkable achievement given they have not won more than 30 games any of the previous four campaigns. To me, their ceiling is the 8-seed, which only speaks to the lack of depth in the Eastern Conference. One of them teams that will assuredly finish above them is LY's Southeast Division Champs, the Wizards, who went 49-33 in the regular season before bowing out to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Wiz did lose outright twice to Philly last year, but both of those games were on the road. Here at home, they beat them by 16 pts.

With Cleveland and Boston both radically remaking their respective rosters and Toronto seemingly past its peak, Wizards' fans are thinking this is the year the can finish closer to the top of the East. The core of the team that won 49 games a year ago is all back, led by the outstanding starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. If I do have one concern w/ this group, it's the bench. Markieff Morris (sports hernia surgery) will be out the first month of the season. But I don't think that hurts them here. This team went 30-11 SU at home a year ago by scoring 110.3 points per game. Defense was not a strong suit for the young Sixers last season (110.3 PPG ALLOWED on the road where they went 11-30 SU) and I don't think it will be this season either.

The Sixers have won just 56 games the past three seasons w/ half of those coming in 2016-17. They do add the last two #1 overall draft choices to their lineup - Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz - with the former having missed all of LY due to injury. Expectations should be tempered in the early going for Fultz as he'll be coming off the bench. Speaking of injury, Joel Embiid will again be on a minutes restriction and is already battling an ankle injury. The plan for tonight is to play him only 16 minutes. When I look at the Sixers, I see a team that is being overvalued in the marketplace based on potential and not results. They will NOT match LY's ATS record and I don't see Opening Night going well for them against a proven commodity. The fact that they're the dreaded "public dog" in this game only confirms my suspicion. 8* Washington

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): I'm a bit surprised that - in some circles - the Magic are being discussed as a potential playoff darkhorse (for the 8-seed only). But that only speaks to the current state of the Eastern Conference. There certainly does seem like a logical argument for them to finish in the top eight as there are only seven teams likely to finish w/ winning records and this will be the first time in a LONG time the Magic aren't projected to be a last place team. (That dubious distinction belongs to Atlanta this season). I don't think they'll make it, mind you, but for tonight's season opener, there is plenty of value to be had w/ them as a home dog to rival Miami. The Magic have actually played the Heat tough the L2 seasons, splitting eight games, including taking three of four last year. Take the points here.

Miami is one of the seven teams you have to think will make the playoffs in the East. Last year, they finished tied for the 8th spot (at 41-41) and had the 5th best point differential in the conference at +1.1 PPG. But they lost a tiebreaker to the Bulls and did not make the "tournament." This is now a "new era" on South Beach as Dwyane Wade joined his buddy LeBron James in Cleveland. The issue last season was that the Heat dug themselves too big of an early season hole. They did beat Orlando on Opening Night, 108-96 (as a three-point road dog), but would proceed to drop 30 of the next 40 games. Even a 13-game SU/ATS win streak that took place right before the All-Star Break was for naught. 

Looking at the actual matchup, Orlando has to be better defensively than they were a year ago. Defense was HC Frank Vogel's calling card in Indiana, so I do expect them to improve on that end of the floor. This was the league's worst ATS team a year ago, odd because it's not as if they're favored much. But I look for a far better performance at the pay window this year. I find it interesting that despite being a better team this year, they've gone from a three-point home favorite to a three-point home dog against the same opponent in consecutive season openers. Thanks to that 13-game win streak, Miami finished near the top of the league's ATS standings, but if you take that one run out, they were basically an average team at the betting window and very subpar overall. They were a road favorite only seven times in 2016-17. Look for the Magic to surprise here. 10* Orlando

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Batten down the hatches here as we have a rematch of LY's Eastern Conference Finals w/ Kyrie Irving having "switched sides" from Cleveland to Boston. Needless to say, emotions will be running high at the Quicken Loans Arena Tuesday night. My play on the Cavs does come w/ a rather giant caveat, that being if LeBron James doesn't suit up, the play is off. So, please, be sure to pay attention to the news throughout the day and as soon as I hear something definitive, I'll try and provide an update. But assuming King James does play, then I feel the emotion of opening the season at home against a hated rival will carry his team to the SU win and cover. Lay the short number (again, provided James plays). 

It's not just Irving, but Boston has a LOT of new faces this year. It's quite rare to see a team that finished #1 in its conference totally remake its roster, but that's precisely what GM Danny Ainge did here. He shipped his best player (Isaiah Thomas) to Cleveland in order to get Irving. That deal also saw the Celtics have to part ways w/ Jae Crowder, a key interior presence and defender. It's now the Cavs that will benefit from his services. Ainge also signed Gordon Hayward, off a career-year in Utah (21.9 PPG), to a big deal. Having a lot of "shiny" new pieces always seems fun on paper, but don't be surprised if the Celtics underachieve in 2017-18. I say that knowing full well that LY's team ranked only 3rd in net efficiency in the East, behind Cleveland and Toronto. Last year's group was built to overachieve. To me, this year's group will be just the opposite. They have just FOUR returning players from 2016-17. They're going to miss Avery Bradley for sure. Certainly, I don't see this team matching LY's league-best 29-18-2 ATS record on the road. 

Cleveland also has a lot of new faces. In addition to getting Thomas and Crowder in the Irving trade, they signed Dwyane Wade (LeBron's best buddy) and Derrick Rose. Both those players are probably "over the hill" and won't mean much to the pointspread, but at least Wade will keep James happy. The starting lineup will also be different w/ both Tristan Thompson and JR Smith relegated to bench roles. Neither may be happy about it, but the team is better served this way. (Wade, likely at James' behest, took over Smith's starting role at SG). Kevin Love now plays center, meaning it's a smaller lineup, but that's when the Cavs are at their best. They shredded Boston in LY's ECF to the tune of 120.4 PPG. Again, provided LeBron plays, I'm "all in" on the Cavaliers here. For the record, J.R. Smith is on record as saying James is "gonna go." 8* Cleveland

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): So it turns out that the Warriors will not finish the postseason a perfect 16-0 SU as they lost to the Cavs in Game 4, 137-116, thereby preventing them from pulling off the sweep. Despite still holding a commanding 3-1 series lead and returning home for Game 5 tonight, there's a curious amount of pressure on the Dubs, of course due to the fact that LY saw them blow a 3-1 series lead (first time in NBA Finals history) to these Cavs. Of the four games so far, only one hasn't been decided by double digits, but I'll call for a closer affair tonight as Cleveland appeared to have rediscovered its lost shooting touch Friday night. Take the points. 

Surprisingly, the Warriors are only 1-5 ATS this season following a double digit loss. They are 5-1 straight up in those same games, thus high pointspreads like the one we have here have generally come into play. Their defense was absolutely carved up in Game 4 as they allowed the Cavs not only to make a Finals record 24 three-pointers, but do so at an astounding 53.3% clip. For all the complaining about the officiating GSW did after the game, they actually attempted more free throws in the game than did the Cavs. A huge start to Game 4 was key for Cleveland and it should be noted the defending World Champs played the Warriors tough for much of Games 1 and 2 here in Oakland. Game 3 saw a blown six-point lead in the final three minutes at home and the Cavs were -12 in the two minutes LeBron James was off the court. If either of those two things had been rectified, the discussion of this series would be much different now. 

James averages 32.5 points per game in elimination contests, so expect another big game from him here. He's already averaging a triple double in these Finals. While the Cavs' record as an underdog is far from great this season, note that the majority of the games have come w/ James out of the lineup. I feel the pressure is on the Warriors here as another loss would bring up the ghosts of last season. I'm not saying the Cavs will win outright and extend the series tonight, but I certainly expect a close game. 10* Cleveland

10* Under Warriors/Cavs (9:05 ET): The NBA Finals are "all over but the shouting" now after a soul-crushing loss for Cleveland in Game 3 and anyone who may have taken them plus the points. You can count me among that group as I watched in horror as the defending World Champs were held scoreless over the game's final three minutes, turning a six-point advantage into a five-point loss and thus my ticket on them +3.5 ended up a loser. Anticipation of a sweep has the Game 4 line clearly inflated, but I have no interest in playing the Cavs right now. Therefore, it's a pivot to the total. In Game 1, I was on the Under, noting the O/U line was extraordinarily high compared to past meetings between the two teams. That ticket cashed, but after Games 2 and 3 went Over, we now have an even higher total for this game. Therefore, I'm back on the Under.

It's probably fair to question Cleveland's motivation here. Granted, they did "shock the world" last year in coming back from a 3-1 series deficit. But that was w/ Draymond Green suspended for one of the games. No team in NBA history has ever fought back from a 3-0 series deficit. The fact Cleveland couldn't win Game 3 despite 35+ points from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving is damning. Other than Kevin Love, no one else on the team is producing above a replacement level right now. It seems as if the Cavs never shoot well against the Warriors, who are an underrated defensive team to begin with. Cleveland's red-hot three-point shooting from the first three rounds is now a thing of the past as they've been held to 20 of 73 from behind the arc these last two games. As a reminder, Golden State was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and they have been - by far - the best team at that end of the floor here in the playoffs. Don't forget they also held the Cavs below 35% overall in Game 1.

Golden State has shot 51.7% and 48.2% respectively in the last two games. They'll obviously "get theirs" again tonight, but after going Over in seven of the past eight games, just how much will they "get?" Motivation could be lacking on their side as well, knowing they - in essence - have this series "in the bag." I don't think we'll see the same kind of sharpshooting we saw the last two games. Remember this was one of the top Under teams (due to inflated O/U lines) in the regular season. Cleveland is also 36-18 Under in games which they are an underdog since LeBron James returned three seasons ago. That includes a 12-6 mark (same pace!) this year. 10* Under Warriors/Cavs

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): The defending World Champs appear to be in major trouble, down 0-2 to the Warriors. But let us not forget that the same scenario took place in LY's Finals, only for the Cavs to come back and take four of the next five games in (somewhat) improbable fashion. In fact, the results of the first two games last year, when the Warriors did NOT have Kevin Durant, were even more lopsided (combined 48 pt margin of victory) than what we've seen so far in this series (41 pts). So, Cleveland should not give up all hope - yet. Things now shift to Quicken Loans Arena, where they've been far stronger all year long, and notable is the fact that prior to the start of the series, they were to be favored here at home. After what transpired in the first two games, the oddsmakers have shifted from Cavs -2 to them now being a small home dog. Value! Take the points.

Cleveland as a home dog is rare, provided LeBron James is in the lineup. He obviously will be for Game 3. James quietly turned in a triple double in Game 2 w/ 29 pts, 11 rebounds and 14 assists. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving also contributed a combined 46 points. But what about the rest of the roster? How about just 38 total pts on 13 of 36 shooting. Those players have to give the team SOMETHING as it was more of the same in Game 1 as well. What we typically see from a "supporting cast" is better play at home, thankfully. Note the Cavs are 36-11 SU at home this year (including playoffs), winning by an average margin of 8.2 points per game. Virtually every player on the roster sees their shooting improve here, which is evident by a 48.6 overall FG% including 39.5% from three-point range.

I mentioned earlier that Cleveland is rarely a home dog w/ James in the lineup. One such time came on Christmas Day (+3.5) against these Warriors as they came from behind to win outright, 109-108. Clearly, the Cavs also need to work on their defense and slowing the pace down. Easier said than done, but going back to LY's Finals, their five wins (including X-Mas) over GSW have seen them allow no more than 108 points every time. They can't win a game in the 130's. Good news is that they are 5-1 SU/ATS after allowing 130+ pts the previous game.  I know the Dubs look invincible right now, but will they really "run the table" and go 16-0 (SU) in the playoffs? I'm still thinking "no!" 10* Cleveland

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Shortly after a humbling 113-91 loss in Game 1, both LeBron James and Cavs HC Ty Lue were quick to remark that they "know" their team is capable of playing better. Certainly, it would be difficult to imagine the Cavaliers playing any worse. Thursday saw them shoot just 34.9% from the floor and turn the ball over 20 times (compared to just 4 TO's for GSW). Additionally, they were dominated early on the offensive glass. It goes w/o saying that you can't beat the Warriors when you allow them to attempt 20 more shots than you. Golden State wound up attempting 106 field goal attempts in Game 1, which is just insane. Another key here is that the public was largely on the underdog Cavs in Game 1. With the lopsided result, it appears as they (the public) have "abandoned ship" so-to-speak and now we're able to get a better number. Take the points in Game 2.

James and Kyrie Irving certainly did their part for the Cavs in Game 1. The duo scored or assisted on 73 points on 58 shots w/ LeBron attempting a playoff-high number of field goals in the paint. Unfortunately, the rest of the team was just dreadful and that's putting it mildly. The Cavs players w/o the names "James" or "Irving" on the back of their uniforms combined for just 18 points on 3 of 28 shooting, including 1 of 10 from three-point range when neither of the two assisted. Considering the offensive efficiency we saw from the Cavs as a whole in the first three rounds (#1 overall, even ahead of GSW), it goes w/o saying that we should see marked improvement for Game 2. Tristan Thompson had 0 points and 4 rebounds. Whatever happened to Kyle Korver?

On the defensive end, we also need some improvement from the Cavaliers. There were far too many easy layups from the Warriors in Game 1. Kevin Durant, in particular, had a field day en route to a game-high 38 points. What's crazy is that Klay Thompson was just 1 of 12 from the field and Draymond Green had only nine points. The Warriors actually only shot 42.5% as a team, but the key was the volume of attempts. They still had two quarters of 33+ points. For a frame of reference, in no other playoff game has GSW taken more than 91 FG attempts. Yes, the Dubs remain unbeaten in the playoffs and there's a certain "air" of invincibility surrounding this team right now. But, to me, that marks a good "go against" opportunity as you have to remember Cleveland held a double digit lead in each of its previous 10 games. 10* Cleveland

8* Cleveland (9:05 ET): Much is being made of the fact that favorites have gone 11-1 ATS the last 12 years in the NBA Finals. This includes the Warriors winning and covering each of the last two years at the Cavs' expense. For the third year in a row (an NBA first!), these teams meet again to determine to who is the best the league has to offer. Though Golden State has Kevin Durant for the rubber match and has yet to lose this postseason (12-0 SU), I'm a bit surprised how little respect the defending league champs are getting, not just for Game 1, but the series as a whole. Clearly, regular season numbers (particularly at the defensive end) were not up to LY's standard. But that had a lot to do w/ an 0-9 SU record when LeBron James was out of the lineup. Contrary to conventional wisdom, James and company have "flipped a switch" here in the playoffs, turning in the third best defensive efficiency rating (GSW is 1st) while being #1 (by a wide margin) in offensive efficiency. Cleveland has lost only one time in the playoffs and that came in a game they led by as many as 21 points. Take the points in Game 1.

People like to criticize the East, but Golden State had about as easy a path through the West as one could imagine. First round opponent Portland was hardly an equal. The same could be said for second round opponent Utah. In the Conference Finals, San Antonio led them by 25 pts in Game (here in Oakland!) before Kwahi Leonard got hurt, which changed the entire complexion of that series. There has been one game in each round where the Dubs have had to overcome a deficit of at least nine points. So while there have been some impressive performances along the way, it hasn't been flawless. Note the Cavs have enjoyed a double digit lead in 10 consecutive games going back to the close out game of the 1st round. That's pretty impressive considering they are the underdog here.

A key weapon here for the Cavs (besides the obvious answer of LeBron) is the three-point shot. Golden State is thought of as "three-point shooting team," but in the playoffs Cleveland has been better. In fact, the Cavs are connecting at a historical pace. They are averaging a stunning 14.6 three pointers made per game, which if it holds, would be a playoff record. They're shooting at a 43.5% clip and that's including a 4 of 12 mark from Richard Jefferson & James Jones, who don't figure to shoot much in these finals. Something not even being considered here is the fact that Golden State HC Steve Kerr is likely to miss Game 1. That HAS to matter some, right? 8* Cleveland

10* Under Cavs/Warriors (9:05 ET): This will be the highest O/U line for any NBA Finals game in the 2000's. Both offenses rolled through conference counterparts to get here, but let's not discount how those opponents were completely outclassed. Furthermore, always underrated is the fact that the Warriors were #2 in the regular season and currently #1 in the playoffs in defensive efficiency. The gap between them and Cleveland (#3 in playoff def efficiency) is quite substantial. That said, the Cavs have clearly "turned it on" at the defensive end themselves in the postseason. They just got done holding Boston to an average of 100.4 PPG on 43.5% shooting in the ECF. The long layoff between series could likely have an effect on both teams and consider that only ONE of the previous 19 matchups between these teams (all over L3 years) has seen more total pts scored than what the oddsmakers are asking for in Game 1. Take the Under. 

That lone matchup that exceeded this O/U line took place on MLK Day 2016 as the Warriors ran the Cavs out of the gym, 132-98. I wouldn't be expecting any kind of one-sided rout like that here. Cleveland did struggle to shoot against the Warriors in both reg season matchups this year, however, making only 38.9% and 35.2% of their FG attempts respectively. They were also only 21 of 69 from three-point range. Seven of the previous eight meetings here in Oakland have stayed Under the total. In their last five visits to Oracle Arena, the Cavs have shot better than 41% only one time and that was Game 5 of LY's Finals - when the Warriors did not have Draymond Green.

Neither team's total PPG for the season exceeds this O/U line. Not even Golden State, whose games average 220.2 points per game. That average has held remarkably steady here in the playoffs (220.3 PPG). This was actually one of the top Under teams in the league this year (because of all the high O/U lines) and a major reason for that was a 21-9 Under mark against the Eastern Conference. As for Cleveland, their games this season have seen an average of 217.8 PPG. There's been a slight increase here in the playoffs, but only to 220.0 per game. The O/U line was 227 for the Cavs' reg season visit here and that game (126-91 GSW win) stayed Under by double digits. Other than that, no other O/U line for any previous matchup between these two has been higher than 219.5, which was the number for the reg season meeting in Cleveland. All seven O/U lines in LY's Finals were in the 204 to 211.5 pt range. This will close as the highest O/U line for either team in these playoffs. 10* Under Cavs/Warriors

10* Under Cavaliers/Celtics (8:35): Entering this game, Cleveland has yet to go Under in B2B games at any point this postseason. I'll call for that trend to end Thursday as they look to close out Boston once and for all. One could make the arguement that this year's Eastern Conference Finals should "already be over," but in Game 3 Sunday, the Cavs improbably blew a 21-point second half lead (at home!) and lost outright as 17-point favorites. Behind a virtuoso peformance from Kyrie Irving (42 points), they then turned the tables on the Celtics in Game 4 by erasing a 16-point deficit and winning. Once again, Cleveland shot the lights out (59.5% overall!) and Boston, who is w/o its best player (Isaiah Thomas) simply could not keep up. On the road, I do not believe the Cavs will be able to shoot the ball that well again, meaning this game should be lower scoring than expected. Take the Under.

In the first two games here in Boston, the Celtics managed just 39 and 31 points in the first half. That was w/ Thomas in the lineup. Getting career performances from a number of players in Game 3 was the key to victory, but then everybody regressed Tuesday as they shot just 32.3% from behind the arc and finished w/ "only" 99 points. I just don't think that the Celtics have the horses offensively to compete here. They were held to just 42 points in the second half of Game 4. They are 10-3 Under the L3 seasons when trailing in a playoff series. Save for the stunning 18 of 40 performance in Game 3, they've just been dreadful from three-point range in this series, shooting below 33% in the other three games. I don't see that turning around here. The Under is 7-2 the last nine times Boston has hosted Cleveland.

The key to this Under play is obviously Cleveland getting held in relative check. No way they shoot 71% in a half again, like they did in the second on Tuesday. Note that after shooting 56.5% overall in Game 2, they dropped down to series worsts of 108 pts and 45.7% shooting the next game, their only loss in the series. I still believe we're due to see some more regression from three-point range from this team as they're on an almost historical pace this postseason. Irving isn't likely to match his production from Game 4 and LeBron James (reportedly sick) hasn't really been himself the last two games either. Irving rolled his ankle Tuesday as well. Meanwhile, as already stated numerous times, Boston just lacks firepower as they are down not only Thomas, but Amir Johnson missed the last game and rookie Jaylen Brown may miss this one. 10* Under Cavaliers/Celtics

8* Boston (8:35 ET): Going into Sunday night, it was considered a formality that both the Cavaliers and Warriors would sweep their way into a third straight NBA Finals matchup. Golden State has since held up its end of the bargain, but something funny happened in Cleveland. The Cavs lost Game 3, at home, despite holding a 21-point lead in the second half. It appeared as if they completely "shut it down" far too early, thereby enabling the Boston comeback. Keep in mind that the Celtics were w/o their best player, Isaiah Thomas, and that will continue to be the case the rest of the way. Despite the shocking win Sunday night, the oddsmakers have made no real adjustment for Game 4 and I believe that to be a mistake. Take the points here as the Cavs' level of dominance in the first two games continues to skew the number far too much in their favor.

Obviously, I would be stunned at another outright win by the Celtics here. LeBron James is highly unlikely to go "M.I.A." again like he did in the second half of Game 3. But we finally did start to see some regression from the Cleveland side when it comes to three-point shooting. Currently, the team is on pace to set a new NBA record for # of three-pointers made per game. They're over 15.0 per game right now and eventually that number is going to drop. They also obviously are not going to continue shooting at a near 60% clip from two-point range, something they did in Games 1 and 2 in Boston. Let's also not forget about the Cavs' defensive issues from the regular season where they finished just 22nd in efficiency.

Without Thomas, Boston got a number of key contributions in Game 3. Front and center was Marcus Smart, who made seven three-pointers and finished w/ 27 points. Avery Bradley hit the game-winner and finished w/ 20 points. Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko were both key contributors off the bench. Obviously, not all these players will be able to perform at the level we saw Sunday. But I also don't think all are going to regress either. As long as someone can step up for the Celtics, they should be more than capable of staying within this very generous number. 8* Boston

10* Under Warriors/Spurs (9:05 ET): At this point, Golden State advancing to its third consecutive NBA Finals seems like mere formality. They've won the L2 games by double digits, beating the undermanned Spurs by 36 and 12 points. Clearly, this series swung on the Kwahi Leonard injury as when he went down (ankle), San Antonio was leading Game 1 by 25 points. Since then, the Warriors have outscored the Spurs by 70 points over the last 10 quarters. I'm staying away from the side in Game 4 as its seems as if the oddsmakers have finally adjusted accordingly, but the total now offers some value after each of the first three games went Over the total. Tonight, the O/U line figures to close at a series high-point, so Under is the call here as San Antonio's ONLY shot is to turn this into a low-possession, low-scoring affair.

These were the #1 and #2 teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. In the playoffs though, Golden State has taken its defense up a notch as they are they are barely allowing one point per possession. The Spurs defense has obviously slipped the L2 games w/o their ace defender Leonard, but his absence also has an effect on the offensive end as well. Remember, the team is also w/o Tony Parker the rest of the way. That's 43.6 points per game (Leonard + Parker's season long averages) gone from the lineup w/o the leading and third-leading scorer on the team. With Golden State, the cliche of "you can't stop 'em, you can only hope to contain them" certainly applies, but people forget that this was largely an Under team in the regular season. They're still 50-39-1 Under in all games this year including 31-20 when off a game where they scored 115 or more points. 

San Antonio is now 12-3 Over in the playoffs. That's pretty shocking. The Memphis series (1st round) featured lots of low O/U lines, which was a big contributing factor, as has playing the two highest scoring teams from the reg season the L2 rounds. Going back to the end of the Houston series, they've now allowed an average of 110.2 points the L5 games. That's obviously well above their season-long average of giving up just 98.2 PPG here at home. Look for this one to stay Under the total. 10* Under Warriors/Spurs

10* Over Celtics/Cavs (8:35 ET): After cashing w/ the Under (barely!) in Game #2, I'm pivoting to the Over here in Game #3. I probably don't need to tell you that Cleveland absolutely bludgeoned Boston in a manner previously not thought possible in a Conference Finals. They led by 41 points at halftime (NBA record!) en route to a 130-86 victory that could have actually been MORE lopsided (Cavs' rested their starting five the entire fourth quarter). If that wasn't bad enough for the Celtics, now the series shifts to Cleveland and they will be w/o their best player (Isaiah Thomas) the rest of the way. The loss of Thomas as well as the result of the last game has caused a major readjustment from the linesmakers on both side and total here and I believe the latter to be less warranted. 

The Cavaliers are on a historic pace from three-point range in these playoffs, making nearly 15 per game! They shot 19 of 39 from behind the arc in Game 2 (48.7%), but it's on the inside where they are clearly having their way w/ the undersized Celtics. On two-point attempts in this series, they are shooting 57 of 96 for an unconscionable 59.3%. One might look at that number and logically conclude they are due to drop off, but who is Boston to stop them? In the playoffs, the Cavs are #1 in efficiency on the offensive end, averaging nearly 1.2 points per possession! At no point in the playoffs have they gone Under in B2B games. Friday marked the SIXTH time this season that they scored at least 130 pts in a game. The Over is a perfect 5-0 off the previous five. At home, this team averages 113.1 PPG. 

Even without Thomas, it is highly unlikely that Boston shoots any worse than it did in Game 2. They finished at just 37.2% overall including 8 of 27 from three-point range. Poor shooting even translated to the FT line where they missed 8 of 23 attempts. (By the way, the Cavs only went to the line 15 times in Game 2!). The 86 pts scored in Game 2 marked a playoff low, so even w/o Thomas, they should bounce back. They haven't been held below 100 pts in B2B games in the playoffs. To summarize, any decline here from the Cavs offensively will be offset by improvement on the Boston side. As specified above, the Cavs probably won't decline much anyway and let's not understate how scoring could increase in garbage time if this game were to get out of hand again. 10* Over Cavs/Celtics

8* Under Cavs/Celtics (8:35 ET): I didn't play Game 1, but if I had, Under probably would have been the call. Thus, in retrospect, it was a wise pass. As for the side, Cleveland dominated the series opener so thoroughly that there is serious talk of a sweep here. Why shouldn't there be? Like "rival" Golden State, the Cavs have yet to lose this postseason and are now on a 12-0 playoff run dating back to LY's epic Finals comeback. After Wednesday's 117-104 win, LeBron James said about his team, "I don't even think we played that great tonight." The Celtics should be frightened by that comment as they never led at any point in Game 1 and trailed by as many as 28 on their home floor. Will they be "motivated" for Game 2? Certainly. But I still wouldn't consider the points w/ the home dog. Rather, I WILL step out w/ a play on the Under this time.

In some regards, James assertion that his team didn't "play that great" is correct. Kyrie Irving scored only 11 points and James, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson were the only other players that finished w/ double figures (all w/ 20+). The team also shot "only" 35.5% from 3-pt range (averaging above 40% in playoffs) and would have been worse if not for a 6 for 9 performance from Love. But in this department, I believe the Cavs will continue to regress from the historic level they shot at in the first two rounds (averaged 14 3-pt FG's per game vs. Indiana/Toronto). Love probably won't shoot that well again, nor is Thompson likely to match his own offensive output from Gm 1. As phenomenal a player as LeBron James is (best ever?), I don't see him making 13 of 16 shots inside the paint again. 

Both teams actually wound up shooting well in Game 1. The Cavs finished at 48.1% while the Celtics were at 46.6%. Yet, looking back, it's a bit surprising the game did sneak Over the total. There were only 100 total pts scored at halftime and 61 of those came from the Cleveland side. It was a wild third quarter (36-31 in favor of Boston) that swung things dramatically for totals players. I should point out that the O/U line here exceeds the average total points per game output for both teams. Even in the playoffs, Cavs' games are averaging "just" 219.6 PPG. For the Celtics, their games have averaged 211.3 PPG in the playoffs. Isaiah Thomas was basically a non-factor in Gm 1 as Cavs HC Tye Lue threw a number of (all effective!) different looks at him. 8* Under Cavs/Celtics

10* Under Spurs/Warriors (9:05 ET): Game 1, specifically the second half, probably couldn't have gone any worse for San Antonio. Not only did they blow a 25-pt lead and lose the game, 113-111, but they also lost superstar Kwahi Leonard for the forseeable future as well. This is probably the most points the Spurs have ever gotten in any game under HC Popovich and while they're 8-2 ATS as dogs this year, the task here w/o Leonard is every bit as difficult as the oddsmakers are projecting it to be. Therefore, we turn to the total. As was the case in the Houston series, expect the O/U lines to be high from San Antonio's perspective. The last time the Spurs were w/o Leonard (Game 6 vs. Rockets), I was on the Under and I'm playing Game 2 of this series the same way. 

Now, clearly, Spurs fans shouldn't expect tonight's game to go the same way the close out game of the Houston series did. There, the team held the high-scoring Rockets to a season-low 75 points in as easy a win as I've seen in these playoffs. The loss of Leonard clearly stings on the defensive end, but the Spurs were still able to hold the #2 team in offensive efficiency to a season-low in points Friday. So, I believe they're capable of still keeping the Warriors (#1 in off efficiency) in relative check, even w/o Leonard. Remember though that Tony Parker is also out for the year. That combined w/ the Leonard injury will hurt San Antonio more on the offensive end. Leonard was injured in the third quarter Sunday and the change in the team was striking. After scoring 62 pts in the first half, they scored only 49 in the second. Three teammates did end up scoring in double figures, but I seriously doubt that LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobili or Jonathan Simmons will match their Game 1 production tonight.

As I talked about in my Game 1 analysis, Golden State is quite underrated defensively. They finished the regular season #2 in defensive efficiency (trailing only the Spurs!) and have really taken things up a notch in the playoffs. They are the only team to be allowing fewer than one point per possession here in the postseason and the gap between them and the #3 team is larger than the gap between the #3 and #13 team. The Warriors are absolutely an Under team (52-38-1 this year) and won't have nearly as poor a 1st half defensively as they did in Game 1. Both teams ended up shooting the ball pretty well overall in Game 1, something you can't count on repeating itself. 10* Under Spurs/Warriors

10* Washington (8:05 ET): Admittedly, I'm bucking a lot of history here. Washington is 0-8 SU/ATS its last nine visits to Boston. The home team has won ALL 10 head to head meetings between these two teams this season. And home teams have historically dominated Game 7's in the NBA playoffs, winning 23 of the previous 30 straight up, though Utah did win in LA in Round 1 this year. As a whole, this series has been very even w/ the Wiz outscoring the Celtics by just a single point. Therefore, my natural inclination is to take the points. Throw in the fact that the Wiz raced out to double digit leads in each of the first two games here in Boston and one could make the arguement that they've been the better team. Actually, they've led by double digits in four of the six games so far. Take the points.

Game 6 was Washington's turn to come from behind as they erased a five-point fourth quarter deficit and won on a John Wall three-pointer in the closing seconds. Now, that's by no means a large come back, so again, it somewhat plays into the fact that the Wizards have been the better team in this series. There is likely to be a ton of focus here on a "clock error," at the end of Game 6, which cost the Celtics some time to win the game. But that's all "water under the bridge now." Somewhat shocking is the fact that home teams were 0-10 straight up in these playoffs when facing elimination prior to the Washington win Friday night! So that's a trend that clearly now favors the Wizards. Being able to win a game while shooting 5 of 24 from three-point range was huge for the Wiz. You have to think they'll shoot better here, even on the road. 

Overall, Washington has not shot well in B2B games. They're just over 40% overall from the field and are an awful 12 of 53 from three-point range. Again, you have to think those numbers are going to improve here. That means trouble for Boston, who is actually worse defensively at home to begin with. Keys for Washington defensively are to force the Celtics into driving (just 7 of 31 L3 games, including an awful 1 of 13 from Isaiah Thomas) and focus on Al Horford, not Marcus Smart. Smart has been a borderline disaster in this series, shooting just 32 percent from the floor and below 50 percent from the free throw line. Yes, home court advantage is powerful in these Game 7's. But I simply do not believe the Celtics are any better than the Wizards, which makes the points look attractive. 10* Washington

8* Over Wizards/Celtics (8:05 ET): Due to what happened in Game 6 (92-91 final) and the conventional wisdom of Unders cashing at a higher rate in Game 7's (roughly 60 percent since '07), the oddsmakers have dipped the O/U line considerably here from the final installment of Wizards-Celtics. But the dip in the O/U line seems like an overadjustment to me. At it's "low point" (has been bet up a bit overnight), it was a full EIGHT points lower than the Game 5 O/U line here in Boston, a contest which went well Over the total. In fact, all three games in Boston during the series have gone Over due in no small part to the home team averaging roughly 125 points per game. Washington is obviously worse off defensively on the road (allows 110.2 PPG), but did you know so is Boston at home (105.7 PPG allowed compared to 104.5 PPG on the road). Take the Over.

Overall, Washington has not shot well in the last two games. They're just over 40% overall from the floor, including an awful 12 of 53 from three-point range. The fact they were able to win Game 6 despite shooting 5 of 24 from behind the arc was huge, not just for the fact they stayed alive, but even on the road they're now likely to shoot much better tonight. Heck, the Wiz won despite missing eight of 21 FT attempts in Game 6. I expect across the board shooting improvement from them here. Boston didn't exactly shoot the lights out either Friday night. They were only 40.5% overall including 11 of 35 from three-point range. In the series' three home games, they've shot better than 50% from the floor every time. So, it should be improved shooting on both sides tonight. 

The dip in the O/U line here is also significant for another reason. Both teams' season-long total PPG averages now exceed it. Wizards games average 216.3 PPG and that number jumps to 218.1 on the road where the Over is 31-16. They've also gone Over 15 of the last 20 times facing a team that averages at least 106 PPG. Boston averages 107.8 PPG overall and 110.0 PPG at home. Celtics' home games average 215.7 PPG for the year and thus the Over is 25-18. These are two good free throw shooting teams, so the struggles we've seen from the losing side each of the L2 games should dissipate. Washington is 29-12 Over L3 seasons when playing w/ two days of rest. 8* Over Wizards/Celtics

10* Under Spurs/Warriors (3:30 ET): While I'm sure it will (hopefully!) be mentioned during the telecast, something that will not get played up enough in this series is the fact that the Spurs and Warriors were 1-2 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Here in the playoffs, Golden State has taken their defense to a whole new level as they are the ONLY team to be allowing less than one point per possession. In fact, the gap between them and the #3 team in defensive efficiency in these playoffs (Boston) is wider than the gap between #3 and #14! Their last five games, which includes the sweep of Utah and close out game against Portland, has seen them allow an average of just 97.4 points per game on 41.2% shooting. Take the Under in Game 1.

San Antonio is of course coming off a completely dominant victory in their close out game against Houston. They won Game 6 of that series (on the road!), 114-75. It goes w/o saying that was easily the fewest # of points scored in a game by Houston this year. What's really impressive though is that the Spurs had previously held Houston to a season-low 92 points in Game 3 as well. All told, they held the Rockets to 96 pts or less three times in the series, which is virtually unheard of given that Houston was held below 100 pts only a handful of times throughout the course of the regular season. The good news is the Kwahi Leonard will play here and that's bad news for whichever Golden State player he defends. Memphis and Houston's respective leading scorers, Mike Conley and James Harden, shot just 34% from the floor when Leonard was their primary defender. 

Going hand and hand w/ the Warriors being a top defensive team this year is the fact they were also an Under team as well. Only four teams have gone Under in a higher percentage of their games this season. On the other side, as was the case against Houston, the Spurs' ability to defend the three-point line here (best in the league during reg season) will be key. In their two regular season losses to the Spurs, Golden State shot just 12 of 50 from beyond the arc. San Antonio allows just 99 PPG this year, so from their perspective, the game by game O/U lines will be high in this series, similar to the Houston series. 10* Under Spurs/Warriors

8* Washington (8:05 ET): The first quarter has typically belonged to the Wizards in this series, but that certainly was NOT the case in Game 5 at Boston as they were outscored 33-21 and never really recovered (lost 123-101). But all that did was square away the two teams' scoring in the series. The 22-pt win doubled the Celtics' margin of victory from Games 1 and 2 combined while the Wizards won Games 3 and 4 (here at home) by a total of 44 pts. The home team has now won all nine H2H meetings this season, so right there is a natural lean to Washington. Throw in the fact that they held a double digit lead in each of the first four games of the series and the fact they're still dead even with Boston in point differential despite being down a game, I'm laying the short number here.

Save for Game 5, the pattern of Washington beating Boston by a larger margin than the other way around goes back to the regular season. In the Celtics' four trips to the Nation's Capital this season, they have lost by margins of 25, 15, 27 and 19! That's an average of 21.5 points per game! While the Wiz sport a losing record on the road, they are 35-11 SU at home and average 110.7 PPG. More importantly, they also allow about 5.5 PPG fewer at home compared to the road. Boston, who is only 8-15 SU as a 'dog this year, scores roughly four points per game less on the road. Since '05, NBA playoff teams off a double digit road loss and returning home cover at a 56% ATS rate.

Again, it bears mentioning that Washington held a double digit lead in each of the first four games of this series. They'd outscored Boston by 22 points over those four games, so the series being "even" at that point was certainly misleading. I know the Celtics then dominated Game 5, but I see no way they repeat their 53% shooting (65% in 1st quarter!) or go 16 of 33 on three-point attempts again. Washington shot just 38.5% overall in Game 5 (series worst), including 7 of 29 from three-point range. This is a classic "zig zag" game. Look for this series to go to a Game 7. 8* Washington

10* Under Spurs/Rockets (8:05 ET):  My Under play for Game 5 was foiled by overtime, a cruel twist following a second half in which the teams combined for just 84 second half points and only 31 in the fourth quarter. Even crueler was the fact that it looked as if the Under still might cash despite the extra five minutes of play, only for 10 of the 15 OT points to come in the game's final 90 seconds. The Spurs were #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season and have held Houston to 101 pts or less in regulation three of the past four games. The fact that the Over has gone 11-2 their previous 13 games is a bit misleading as individual game totals in the Memphis series were set low. As previously noted here, the O/U lines in this series are high from the San Antonio perspective. I'm sticking w/ the Under again. 

Houston is of course one of the top offensive teams in the league. They are the reason for the high totals in this series, but as previously noted, they've been held well below their scoring average in three of the last four games. Neither team shot well in Game 5, making the final result all the more painful for me. It also had to be painful for the Rockets to hold the Spurs to 40% shooting and still lose. One thing we haven't seen a ton of in this series is free throw shooting, at least compared to both teams' season average for number of attempts. That's a good thing when betting the Under. In the L2 games, Houston is just 21 of 31 from the charity stripe while San Antonio is an even worse 24 of 41.

Obviously, the key storyline for Game 6 is going to be the health of Kwahi Leonard, who injured his ankle in the last game and was on the bench down the stretch. Somewhat shockingly, his teammates picked up the slack, scoring the final 19 pts of the game. I wouldn't look for that to happen again though and let's not forget the Spurs are already w/o Tony Parker as well. Leonard is on track to play here, but figures to be hobbled somewhat. Considering the team scored just 24 pts in the 4Q and OT of Game 5, that doesn't bode well. Now you could argue that Leonard not being 100% might also have an adverse effect on the Spurs at the defensive end. While it is true that Leonard has been an ace at defending James Harden, his teammates were also up to the challenge down the stretch Tuesday. The Rockets scored only 22 total pts in the 4Q & OT of Game 5. No overtime hopefully and Game 6 stays Under the total. 10* Under Spurs/Rockets

10* Washington (8:05 ET): The home team has yet to lose in this series, so after four games we're all squared away at two games apiece. That may give the impression that it's been an even battle so far between the Wizards and Celtics, but a deeper investigation reveals that is simply not the case. In fact, the top seed should feel very fortunate not to be eliminated already. Boston has not just trailed by double digits in every game in this series, but has allowed Washington to go on individual runs of 16-0, 22-0 and 26-0 at various points. I believe that the Wiz are the better team here and if you look at the individual game lines, it would appear the oddsmakers agree w/ that assertion. Yes, they're 0-7 SU/ATS their last seven visits to Boston, but they scored 80 first quarter points in Games 1 and 2 and led at the half both times. That 0-7 streak seems due to end. If not now, when?

After blowing those double digit leads (17 in Gm 1, 13 in Gm 2) in Boston, Washington easily could have folded their tent. But instead they blew the Celtics out in both home games. Game 3, like Games 1 and 2, saw them get off to a blistering start. This time, however, they were able to maintain the advantage and won 116-89. Game 4 marked the first time in the series that the Wizards did NOT score at least 38 pts in the 1Q and the Celtics actually led early in the second half. But, thanks to an insane 26-0 run, the Wizards put together another huge quarter (42 in 3Q) and won 121-102. Washington has now scored at least 111 pts in every game in ths series. Remember that the loss in Game 2 came in overtime. I can't overstate enough how the Wiz have mostly outplayed the Celtics over the course of the first four games. If not for Isaiah Thomas, Boston might very well be sitting at home right now.

Let's also not forget that Boston dropped Games 1 and 2 at home in their 1st rd series against a pretty pedestrian Bulls team. That series swung on a key injury to Chicago PG Rajon Rondo. So that's two series where you can say the Celtics have had the "luck of the Irish." In each of the first three games, Washington scored at least 63 pts by halftime. They won Game 4 w/out Kelly Oubre, Jr and now get him back from a one-game suspension. What does the extra day off between games mean? Well, historically speaking, good things for the Wizards. They are 9-5 ATS, 10-4 SU when playing w/ exactly two days' rest. Meanwhile, Boston is just 5-11 ATS, 6-10 SU. Yes, the home team has won all eight times these teams have met this year. But the games here in Boston have been much closer. Take the points. 10* Washington

10* Under Rockets/Spurs (8:05 ET): While this series has been nothing but blowouts, it's squared up at two games apiece, making tonight's result absolutely critical to both sides. As I said prior to Game 3 (won by the Spurs, 103-92), the recent rash of Overs on the San Antonio side has surprised me. I did win w/ the Under in Game 3 (cashed Houston in Gm 4), but that is the ONLY time the Under has cashed for them in the L8 games. The Over is now 10-2 their past 12 games overall. However, remember that the O/U lines were low in the Memphis series and that this was the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Games 2 and 3 saw them do the "unthinkable" and that's hold the Rockets below 100 pts in consecutive games. Thus, I'm on the Under here in Game 5.

From the Spurs' perspective, the O/U lines in this series have been high. This is a team that allows just 98.5 PPG for the year and their games average 203.8 PPG total. Houston had NEVER been held below 100 pts in B2B games prior to San Antonio turning the trick in Games 2 and 3 and in Gm 3, the Spurs held them to a season-low 92 points. In the Rockets' two wins in the series, they have gone 41 of 93 from three-point range. In the two losses, they are just 23 of 73. That's not only far fewer makes, but also far fewer attempts. In the regular season, the Spurs were the top team in the league in defending the three-point, so as I've been saying, they are uniquely suited to stop Houston's main offensive weapon. 

Both teams have now sustained significant injuries in this series. The Spurs have lost Tony Parker the rest of the way, which won't have too significant an impact on the defensive end, but will on offense. In the two full games w/o Parker, they've averaged just 103.5 PPG. Meanwhile, Houston has lost Nene' for the rest of the season. He had been averaging 10.8 PPG in the playoffs, so it's a significant loss. I don't think the Rockets can count on bench players Eric Gordon and Lou Williams to combine for 35 pts again like they did in Game 4. After all, the entire Rockets' bench scored all of 10 pts in Game 3. When guarded by fellow MVP candidate Kwahi Leonard, James Harden has really struggled in this series. He's shooting just 29 percent from the floor including 10 percent from three-point range. 10* Under Rockets/Spurs

10* Houston (9:05 ET): The Rockets opened this series w/ an impressive 126-99 win and cover as six-point chalk. Despite then getting blown out themselves in Game 2, their series' prospects were nevertheless looking pretty good as they were returning home and the Spurs are now w/o Tony Parker for the rest of the season. But, things have a funny way of working out sometimes as it was San Antonio taking care of business in Game 3 w/ a surprise 102-93 win and cover. Holding Houston below 100 pts in consecutive contests is no small achievement, but then again San Antonio was #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Still, I anticipate the Rockets bouncing back offensively tonight and squaring this series up at two games apiece. Lay the points. 

Game 3 actually marked the lowest scoring game for the Rockets ALL YEAR! That was after Game 2 marked their second lowest scoring game of the season. This is a team that had been held below 100 pts in only FIVE games during the regular season. Remember, they shot 22 of 50 from three-point range in Game 1 en route to scoring an impressive 126 points. So we know they're capable of exceeding their average PPG against San Antonio. Certainly, we should expect some sort of bounce back tonight. They average 116.3 PPG at home and James Harden did get back on track in Game 3 w/ 43 points. The problem was the bench totaling only 10 pts and nine of those came from one player, Eric Gordon. A team's supporting cast and reserves tend to play much better at home and in this department, I expect a huge upgrade for Houston in Game 4. 

The loss of Parker has yet to be felt by the Spurs, but it should soon take hold. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 26 pts in Game 3, but I would not expect a repeat of that tonight. He's averaged less than 15 PPG so far in the postseason and had just 19 pts total in the first two games. Again, this is unprecented territory w/ Houston coming off consecutive games where they were held under 100 pts. That did not happen a single time in the regular season! Following a SU Loss this season, the Rockets are 23-6 SU and 18-10-1 ATS, winning by an average of 9.3 points per game. This is a "must-win" game for them as they can't afford to go down 3-1 in the series w/ just one more game (at most) at home. 10* Houston

10* Under Spurs/Rockets (9:35 ET): The first two games of this series have gone Over the total, but as we saw last night w/ Boston-Washington, that doesn't preclude an Under when the venue shifts. Though I was happy to see the Spurs (had 'em!) win big Game 2 (121-96 as six-point favorites), that victory certainly came at a price as PG Tony Parker now appears to be done for the year with a torn quad. That certainly puts a big damper on the Spurs' prospects as they'll need to find out a way to replace his production on the offensive end. Defensively, I don't think Parker's absence will sting nearly as much. This was the #1 team in efficiency during the regular season and as long as they have Kwahi Leonard defending James Harden, they'll be okay. Take the Under for Game 3.

For San Antonio, this is a high total. Their total PPG average for the season is just 203.7. Now for Houston, the number is a little low as their games average 224.4 PPG. But the Rockets only scored 96 in Game 2. That was actually their second fewest number of points scored in a game ALL SEASON and just the SIXTH time they were held below 100. So, we probably should expect some sort of bounce back offensively tonight. That said, Leonard should continue to make "life difficult" for Harden and prevent the Rockets from hitting their peak or even average. Harden scored just 13 pts in Game 2 on 3 of 17 shooting. It was the worst shooting playoff game of his career and he did not make a single shot when Leonard was the primary defender. Parker might be done, but Leonard isn't going anywhere. It certainly doesn't help Harden or the Rockets that he's not feeling well either (congestion & cough). 

The Spurs have actually gone Over the total in six straight games as well as 9 of their last 10. But remember their first round opponent was Memphis and the O/U lines set there were low. This is now - easily - the longest Over streak of the Spurs' season. The previous high was four straight games, achieved twice. While they likely won't shoot as poorly as they did back in Game 1 (36.9% overall), they also aren't likely to shoot as well as they did in Game 2 (54.5%). As long as the top defensive team in the league can maintain somewhere close to its season average, we will be in good shape here. Remember that San Antonio was the best team in the league at defending the three-point line, so they are uniquely suited to slowing down the Rockets' primary weapon. 10* Under Spurs/Rockets

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): It goes w/o saying that the Raptors have to be thrilled to be out of Cleveland. Going back to last year's Eastern Conference Finals, they are 0-5 SU/ATS in the playoffs there, losing by an average of nearly THIRTY points per game! Game 1 of this series was bad (lost 116-105), but Game 2 was even worse (lost 125-103) and Toronto basically trailed the entire time in both games. DeMar DeRozan was downright awful Wednesday night as he was just 2 for 11 from the field and scored only five points. Plus, he's now resorting to (facetiously) offering $100 to anyone who knows how to stop LeBron James! Even worse is that Kyle Lowry now has a sprained ankle. The good news is that DeRozan can't be any worse than he was in Game 2 and I have to believe Lowry is going to try and at least give it a "go" here. I view teams like stocks and tonight clearly marks an opportunity to "buy low" on the Raptors. Take the points.

Let us not forget what happened in LY's Eastern Conference Finals. As they did in this series, the Raptors got blown out in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland. But then they came back to take the next two here at home. There's some real value here considering Cleveland was only a seven-point home favorite for Game 2. Plus, I anticipate the public continuing to bet this number up, so I'd probably wait as long as possible to get the best available number. Toronto is 30-14 SU at home this year, outscoring visitors by 7.6 points per game. Their scoring average jumps to 110.3 PPG (only 101.7 PPG on the road). Cleveland actually finished w/ a losing road record in the regular season (20-21 SU) and has been outscored away from home over the course of the year. They trailed Indiana by as many as 25 in Game 3 of the 1st round before a miraculous comeback.

The Cavs have been on fire in the first two games, particularly from three point range. They are now averaging over 14 makes per game from behind the arc and shooting 42.3% there for the entire playoffs. That's a clip that probably cannot be sustained. Let's not let the offensive outbursts from the first two games mask the fact that the defending World Champs are questionable at best on the defensive end where they ranked 22nd in efficiency (lowest among all playoff teams!) during the regular season. Toronto, who was just 5 of 17 from three-point range in Game 2, should be the ones "getting it going" from distance tonight. The Raptors, not Cleveland or Boston, were the team that had the best net efficiency rating and point differential in the Eastern Conference this year.  8* Toronto

10* Over Jazz/Warriors (10:35 ET): This total is incredibly low from the Warriors' perspective. Of course, from the Jazz's perspective, not so much as they led the league in points per game allowed during the regular season (96.8) and their total PPG average for the year is now just 197.4. Underrated here is the fact Golden State was #2 in the regular season in defensive efficiency, behind only San Antonio (Utah was #3). So, a somewhat defensive series should be expected. That said, Warriors' games this season average 219.9 total PPG and this is probably the lowest O/U line for any of their games this season. Game 1 did stay Under (as have all Jazz-Warriors matchups this season), but it was also a 58-46 game at halftime. Scoring crawled to a halt in the fourth quarter when the game was largely decided. Not here. Take the Over.

Yes, all four meetings this year between these teams have now stayed Under. In fact, going back to last year, the streak is now at seven in a row. Six of the last seven meetings here in Oakland have stayed Under. But there's a chance tonight's O/U line could close as the lowest to date. Certainly, it's not as if these previous meetings have been staying Under by a wide margin. Game 1 missed the mark by just six points. Four of the previous five times these teams had played, the margin was even slimmer than that. I probably shouldn't have to tell you that the Warriors were again the top offensive team in the league this year. They average an astounding 118.4 PPG at home. 

Neither team was very prolific from three-point range in Game 1 as they combined to go just 16 of 58. Utah actually made more threes (9) than did Golden State (7). The seven made 3-pt field goals is well below what the Warriors average for the year (12.0), so expect an increase in production from them behind the arc tonight. Another area where we should make up scoring from Game 1 is at the free throw line. The teams combined to attempt only 33 FT's. They made 28, so a higher number of attempts should naturally lead to more makes. At no point did the Warriors trail in Game 1 and all five starters wound up scoring in double figures. Meanwhile, Utah didn't score its first point until the 7:48 mark of the first quarter. A similar drought should not be expected here and had they scored just six points during that time, the Over would have cashed. This total is just too low. 10* Over Jazz/Warriors

8* Washington (8:05 ET): There's two ways to look at the Wizards' performance in Boston in Games 1 and 2. The pessimist would say that they blew two golden opportunties to "steal" a game on the road and take away the Celtics' home court advantage in the series. The pessimist certainly has a point. When you score a combined 80 pts in the first quarter and still end up 0-2 ATS, well, that's pretty inexcusable. But the optimist would point to the fact that the Wiz could easily be up 2-0 in the series, having held double digit leads in both games. We also know they are a significantly better team at home (33-11 SU here). Sure, the line might "turn some off" (Washington now favored by more here than Boston was in either Games 1 or 2!), but not I. I'll lay the points w/ the Wizards in a "must-win" game. 

In the regular season, Boston was 2-15 ATS when on a win streak of at least three games. But they now come into tonight on a six-game SU and ATS win streak. An emotional Isaiah Thomas, still dealing w/ the tragic death of his sister, has been borderline unstoppable so far. Especially in Game 2 where he went for 53 points. But nor he or his team can keep up the production we saw in the first two games of this series. In averaging 126 points per game, the Celtics have shot 51.1% against the Wizards. But history now says it is Washington's turn to break out offensively. Their three-point shooting percentage in particular goes way up when at home (to 39.8%). They were only 10 of 34 in Game 2 w/ Bradley Beal being the biggest offender at 1 of 9. 

Of course, it's not as if Washington has had much problem scoring against the Celtics. They've gotten off to ridiculous starts both games (again, 80 pts in the 1Q!) and averaged 115 PPG. As the underdog, you would have figured they would have covered at least once, if not taken a game outright. Game 2, which ended up going into overtime, saw Boston take its first lead halfway through the fourth quarter! The Wizards led by as many as 13 late in the third quarter. That was after also holding a DD lead in Game 1. Remember that the Celtics also caught a massive break in Rd 1 in that Bulls' starting PG Rajon Rondo got hurt, which totally changed the complexion of that series. This is a weak top seed that lost two home games to an 8-seed and has trailed by double digits in two others. Washington won both regular season meetings at home, by 15 and 25 points. 8* Washington

8* San Antonio (9:35 ET): The Cavs and Warriors are the only teams yet to lose a game this postseason, but don't sleep on the Rockets, who have only dropped one and just ran the Spurs out of the gym Monday night. In a real shocker, Houston came into San Antonio and took Game 1 w/ incredible ease, rolling up 126 points on what was the #1 rated team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The Rockets are now 12-4 ATS as underdogs this season, a role which they find themselves in yet again for Game 2. However, not to expect a bounce back from the Spurs would be foolish. When off a SU loss this year, the team has outscored its opponents by an impressive margin of 11.6 points per game. With the series set to move to Houston for the next two games, this is basically a "must win" for San Antonio and I see them getting the job done.

As mentioned already, the Spurs were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They allow only 97.5 PPG at home. So the 126 they allowed to Houston was definitely a surprise to most. Given that no team was better at defending the three-point line this year, one would think the Spurs were uniquely suited to stop the Rockets, a team that very much "lives and dies" behind the arc. But instead, Game 1 saw Houston go 22 of 50 from three-point range, a rather stunning performance. I'm willing to bet on that NOT happening again. Furthermore, we should see improvement from San Antonio's offense as well, which was held under 100 pts (9 of 29 from 3-pt range) by a subpar defensive team. 

Perhaps the biggest surprise of all from Game 1 was the incredible amount of support James Harden received from his supporting cast. The four other starters combined for 64 points on 21 of 43 shooting, including 11 of 25 from three-point range. Trevor Ariza scored 23 and Clint Capela added 20. I just can't see a repeat of that taking place here. Meanwhile, the Spurs' LaMarcus Aldridge was a disaster w/ a -36 plus-minus, the worst ever turned in by a Greg Popovich coached player in the postseason. He'll be better tonight. It's way too early to write off the Spurs. They shot just 36.9% from the floor in Game 1, a percentage which should easily be topped here tonight. Expect much better play - on both ends of the court - for Game 2. 8* San Antonio

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Cavs and Warriors are the only teams yet to lose this postseason, so let the inevitable discussion about a potential NBA Finals "rubber match" commence. Never before in league history have the same two teams met three consecutive years in the Finals, by the way. While Cleveland swept Indiana in the 1st round, it was hardly an impressive four-game stretch as they won by an average of only four points per game while giving up an average of 108.7 points per game. Defense was a real issue for the defending World Champs down the stretch and they finished 22nd in the league in efficiency, which actually ranks LAST among all playoff teams. However, they were seemingly able to "turn it on" in Game 1 of this series, beating Toronto 116-105 as 6.5-pt chalk. They never trailed. 

The Raptors did take the Cavaliers to six games in LY's Eastern Conference Finals, but their four losses were by an average of 28.5 PPG and they dropped all three games here in Cleveland. So what must the underdog do to reverse the course of history here? Well, shooting better would be a good start. They finished Game 1 at just 43.8% from the field, which won't get it done against the Cavs. Considering Indiana, an inferior offensive team, was able to shoot 46.6% in Rd 1, I expect better from Toronto here. Digging themselves an early hole doomed them Monday. It should be pointed out that the Cavs' penchant for blowing large leads again reared its ugly head though as the Raptors were able to cut the deficit to seven in the third quarter. It should be noted Toronto is 7-3 STRAIGHT UP following a double digit loss this year. 

Until further notice, I'll maintain that Cleveland's defense (or lack there of) remains a problem. Remember that they actually trailed by 25 in Game 3 of the opening round and also were fortunate that the Pacers missed a wide-open shot that would have won Game 1. With three or more days rest, the Cavs are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this year. But in all other games, they're just 34-45-4 ATS. The Raptors were 14-8 ATS as a road dog this year prior to the Game 1 loss. Really, I can't see them playing any worse than they did Monday and note they were essentially dead even w/ the Cavs over the final three quarters. 8* Toronto

10* Under Wizards/Celtics (8:05 ET): Washington failed to protect a 20-3 lead in Game 1, so I'm lukewarm on their prospects of winning a game here in Boston. But one thing I think we absolutely can expect for tonight's Game 2 is worse shooting - from both sides. The Wizards and Celtics combined to go better than 50% from the field w/ Boston making a ridiculous 19 three-pointers in what shocking turned out to be an easy, come from behind effort. The Wiz weren't "half bad" from behind the arc either, going 10 of 23. I just don't think we'll see a repeat of that and with the O/U line now higher than both team's total points per game averages for the year, I feel an Under play is appropriate here. 

Save for the 1Q on Sunday (allowed 38 pts), the Celtics have turned the defense up here in the postseason. In their four wins over the Bulls, they allowed an average of just 90.5 PPG. After the bad start to Game 1 of this series, they buckled down and gave up just 42 total pts in the second and third quarters combined. So they should be fine on that end of the floor. But, it's on offense where I expect them to regress from Game 1. Don't expect another 24 points out of Jae Crowder as that was his playoff career high. Al Horford turned a near triple-double (21-10-9) and I think it's reasonable to assume his production will decrease as well. Isaiah Thomas poured in an emotional 33 pts in the wake of his sister's funeral and also losing a tooth. As good as he's been, I don't see Thomas scoring as many tonight. Again, it's the three-point department where I really expect the Celtics offense to "fall off" from Game 1. They do average 13 makes per game, but that's still an additional 18 pts they got in that department Sunday.

Washington just doesn't have much to offer beyond it's starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Given Beal had a good game Sunday (team-high 27 pts), I would expect the inconsistent shooting guard to possibly have an "off-night" here. Where will the lost production come from then? Well, Markieff Morris is questionable w/ an ankle injury, so it probably won't be him picking up the slack, if he even plays at all. Being so thin in the frontcourt, Washington probably can't take advantage of Boston's one real deficiency, rebounding. So expect fewer second chance opportunities for them. 10* Under Wizards/Celtics

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): Believe it or not, but of these two teams, it was the Raptors that finished the regular season w/ the better point differential and net efficiency rating. Yes, this is "the playoffs," but Cleveland was hardly impressive in Round 1, even in sweeping the far less talented Pacers. They won the four games by an average of only four points per game w/ largest MOV in any game being just six. They were fortunate in that Indiana missed potential GW shots in Games 1 and 4, plus blew a 25-point halftime lead in Game 3. Unlike Indiana (Paul George), Toronto has more than just one reliable option and the Cavs defense remains worrisome. The road team won three of the four regular season matchups and I'll gladly take the points here. 

Among playoff teams, Cleveland posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the regular season. They rank 22nd overall in that department, a far cry from the 10th place ranking they had in LY's Title run. Against Indiana, the defending World Champs conceded an average of 108.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting. They gave up no fewer than 102 pts every game and could never seemingly put the Pacers away in any game. That's worrisome as they prepare to face a far better offensive opponent. I'm also a tad bit concerned over the heavy usage rate of LeBron James. Right now, he's averaging a playoff-high 43.8 minutes per game. Three of the four regular season matchups w/ the Raptors were decided by four points or less, the other was a Raptors win where the Cavs rested starters (reg season finale). 

Toronto wound up needing six games to eliminate a pesky Milwaukee team in Round 1, but they won that series despite averaging only 93.8 points per game. That means, unlike Cleveland, they played some defense. In fact, they were #2 in defensive efficiency in Round 1, trailing only Golden State. Meanwhile, the Cavs were actually WORSE defensively in the series vs. Indiana than they were in the regular season. If it's not become patently obvious to you yet, let me be clear that I expect the Raptors to break out offensively in this game and this series. Will it be enough to win? Not sure, but they are a better team now compared to the one that took the Cavs to six games in LY's Eastern Conference Finals. 10* Toronto

10* Over Jazz/Clippers (3:30 ET): Utah will likely "rue the day" that they blew a chance to close out the Clippers at home. They dropped Game 6, 98-93 as 5.5-pt favorites, and now must go into Staples Center to play a winner take all Game 7. As you've undoubtedly heard, home teams have historically dominated Game 7's in the NBA Playoffs (notwithstanding Golden State's loss in LY's NBA Finals!), going 101-25 SU all-time including 39-25-2 ATS since '90. Throw in the fact that LA is 28-9 SU as home chalk and history does clearly favor one side here. But I believe the better bet is still on the total. Game 6 fell just a bucket short of going Over and for a second straight game we have the lowest O/U for the series. It's too low this time. Take the Over.

Both teams' total points per game average clearly exceed today's O/U line. Even the Jazz, who allowed the fewest PPG in the league during the regular season and play at one of the slowest paces, and there's room to spare. The Clippers average 108.7 PPG at home, so this is a VERY low total for them. Shockingly, they've been able to crack the century mark just ONCE in this series, but there's also been only one time they didn't score 95. I feel they're due for a breakout offensive performance today, even w/o Blake Griffin, who is done for the year. Game 6 saw them shoot 49.3% from the field and were in not for a free throw disadvantage, then the game would have been more lopsided. It should also be pointed out the LA only scored 20 pts in the fourth quarter Friday night.

With Utah, I expect them to shoot far better here than they did on an "off-night" in Game 6. They were just 41% from the field and 7 of 26 from three-point range. For the year, they are at 46.6% overall and 37.2% from three-point range. Again, I have to come back to the fact this is a really low O/U by 2017 NBA standards. The average O/U line for the Jazz this year is 198.0. For the Clippers, its considerably higher at 210. This will in fact be their lowest total ALL SEASON! The first three games here in LA have all stayed Under, so it makes sense that the total has dropped. But now it's too low and it's time for one to go Over. 10* Over Jazz/Clippers

8* Washington (1:05 ET): Both of these teams won their respective first round series in six games. The Wizards ousted the Hawks while the Celtics took care of the Bulls. However, as recently as 10 days ago, one might find it hard to believe that both teams would finish off their opponents in the same time. Washington jumped out to a 2-0 series lead on the Hawks, before dropping both games in Atlanta. But, on the road in Game 6, they wound up playing their "best" game of the series, finishing things off w/ a 115-99 win and cover. While they did led the Hawks get back into the game, the Wiz led by as many as 22 - again, on the road. Meanwhile, it's easy to forget, but Boston once trailed the 8th seeded Bulls two games to none before storming back to win and cover four straight. That series clearly turned on the (Rajon) Rondo injury. I'm not sure Washington isn't the better team here, so I'll gladly grab the points. 

These teams split the regular season series with the home team winning all four meetings. Washington has actually lost and failed to cover five in a row here in Boston. But both regular season matchups here were close (decided by single digits), something that was NOT the case in D.C. Something to consider is that prior to the Game 6 closeout of Chicago, Boston was just 2-15 ATS this season when on a win streak of three or more games. Again, they were quite lucky that Rondo got hurt as a middling Bulls team was a lot worse off w/o him. The Celtics' own star player, Isaiah Thomas, has some question marks coming into this series as well. He just attended the funeral for his sister, who was tragically killed in an auto accident, yesterday. The quick turnaround between series certainly does him no favors. 

I believe the best player in this series has "Wizards" on the front of his jersey. That would be John Wall, who went for 42 pts in the closeout game of Atlanta. Now Wall's 17.8 PPG average vs. Boston in the reg season was his lowest vs. any Eastern Conference opponent this year. But, Bradley Beal more than helped pick up the slack by averaging 28.3 PPG in the three matchups he played. Offensively, the Wizards will present a far greater challenge to the Celtics than the inept Bulls (30th in eff FG%) did. For the sake of comparison, the Wiz are sixth in eff FG%. Note they are also 8-3 ATS off a SU win as a dog this season. 8* Washington

10* Over Clippers/Jazz (10:35 ET): This is yet another instance where a team facing a two games to one deficit has battled back to take control of the series. Utah blew a late lead (at home) in Game 3, but has since put together B2B wins to put the Clippers in a "must-win" spot. This series began w/ the Jazz getting an injury scare (lost Rudy Gobert on the 1st play of Game 1), but he's since returned to the lineup. It was another injury, this one to the Clippers' Blake Griffin (done for the year), that has turned the series. Now Utah has a chance to close out the series at home. Not sure if they do, but I do really like Game 6 to go Over the total. Unless something unforeseen happens, tonight's O/U line will - easily - close as the lowest for any game in the series to date.

Now Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league. They allow only 95.3 PPG at home. But their total points per game average, whether we're talking overall or just at home, still exceeds the O/U line here. Until the fourth quarter, Game 5 was a low-scoring affair w/ the Jazz leading 64-58 after three quarters. Neither team shot well w/ the Jazz at 43.2% and the Clippers at 42.0%. We should see improvement on both sides tonight. Los Angeles has actually shot poorly in B2B games as they were at only 44 percent in Game 4. For the year, the team shoots above 47% from the floor and 37% from three-point range. They average 108.1 points per game and that average does not dip significantly on the road.

But the Clippers' defense tends to regress significantly outside of the Staples Center. They allow 107.9 PPG on the road, up from 100.3 PPG at home. Not surprisingly then, the Over is 28-15 in all their road games this season. Both games in Utah went Over as well w/ the Jazz scoring 105 and 106 points. The final regular season meeting in Salt Lake City, which ended up being a 114-108 Jazz win, also easily went Over. Six of the past eight meetings here have gone Over. With Clippers' road games averaging 215.5 points per game, it would take an almost Hurculean Jazz defensive effort to make up for the discrepancy here. Even w/o Griffin, I expect the Clippers to score enough here to held send this one Over the total. 10* Over Clippers/Jazz

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): For the 1st time, the Bucks trail in the series and now they face a "must-win" to stay alive in Game 6. Thankfully, they get the contest at home. The reason that they are in this position is that they lost in Toronto, 118-93 on Monday. It was their second straight double digit loss to the Raptors and I continue to be astounded at how few points Milwaukee is scoring. But, as alluded to earlier, I like the home team in this spot as Toronto is just 1-6 ATS all-time when leading in a playoff series, including 0-4 the L3 years. Not only that, but the Raptors were red hot from the field in Game #5 (57.7% overall) and probably will be unable to match that. The Bucks need more than just 63 total points outside of Giannia Antetoukounmpo, which is what they got in the last game. Fortunately, at home, "The Greek Freak" should have more support. Lay the very short number. 

Milwaukee won both Games 1 and 3 of this series. Game 3, which was here at home, saw them completely dominate en route to an easy 104-77 win and cover as two-point chalk. While they didn't shoot the ball well at all in Game 4, Game 5 they did as they finished 50% from the floor. They were even 10 of 22 from three-point range. Missing 11 free throws certainly hurt, but the bottom line is that Toronto simply found a way to get even hotter. Fortunately, the Bucks are 6-2 straight up this year following a game where they allowed 115+ points.

Earlier, I briefly touched upon Toronto's past playoff failures at the betting window. Well, they've also NEVER won three consecutive playoff games in their franchise history. So they have that working against them tonight. One player to monitor here is Bucks' guard Khris Middleton. He obviously wasn't feeling well in the last game and it showed w/ him shooting just 3 of 8 and going for only eight points. He sat out Wednesday's practice, but will set to go for the game. He's averaged 13.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game for the series. Coming off a blowout loss, I feel that the Bucks are being written off a bit too much considering that this has been a relatively even series (Raptors have only outscored Bucks by a single point). 10* Milwaukee

10* Over Bulls/Celtics (8:35 ET): The trajectory of this series, which has yet to see the home team win (or cover) a single game, altered dramatically over the course of the two games in Chicago. The Bulls returned home with what appeared to be a commanding two games to none advantage, but they lost PG Rajon Rondo to injury and then the next two games as well. Thus, the Celtics are back in the driver's seat, having regained homecourt advantage. There are reports that Rondo will try to play tonight, but I'm refaining from any kind of wager on the side and instead looking at the total. This is the lowest O/U line yet for any game in this series, thus it seems like an opportune time to strike w/ an Over play. Both games in Chicago stayed Under, but we're in Boston now where six of the past seven head to head meetings have gone Over, including both Games 1 & 2. 

In my previous analysis, I noted that the Bulls have been one of the worst shooting teams in the league all year long. But, for the purposes of this series, it has also been established that they have a massive rebounding edge. That somewhat negates the poor shooting we could see from them. In three of the four games in this series, Chicago has been below 43% from the field, although they still scored 106 points in Game 1 despite doing so. Game 2 (here in Boston) was their best shooting performance of the series, easily. Note Boston actually gives up a higher number of points per game at home this year (105.6) and it's not as if they were some kind of stalwart defensively during the regular seasons as they ranked outside the top 10 in efficiency. 

The Celtics can obviously score as well as is evident by the fact they average a healthy 109.0 PPG at home. They were held below that average in both Games 1 & 2, so expect a reprieve here. The Bulls appear to have no answer defensively for Isaiah Thomas, who scored 33 points in Game 4. Boston has actually yet to hit their overall scoring average for the season even once in this series, so they're about "due." Something else to keep in mind is that these are two of the better free throw shooting teams in the league (both over 80%!), so they shouldn't be leaving a lot of points at the line. Both teams' total PPG averages for the season exceed what the O/U line is for tonight. 10* Over Bulls/Celtics

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Injuries have taken their toll in this series. While tied at two games apiece, one could argue that the Jazz have been the team to adjust better. Granted, it helped that Rudy Gobert made a surprising return for Game 4, which resulted in a 105-98 win. Meanwhile, the Clippers are still figuring out how to deal w/ the loss of Blake Griffin. But considering the difference in the line here compared to the last time the Clips hosted a game (Gm 2), it seems to me as if the oddsmakers may be overvaluing the loss of Griffin. Is he really worth approximately six points to the spread? That seems like a lot to me when a team still has Chris Paul. Utah, as noted by me previously, has been lousy as an underdog this year (6-19 straight up). Conversely, the Clips are 28-8 SU when priced as a home favorite. I'll lay the short number for Game 5. 

It was an interesting split of the two games in Utah as both saw come from behind efforts. Utah had what appeared to be a commanding double digit lead early in Game 3 before wilting late. Then, the Clippers "returned the favor" in Game 4, blowing an 87-80 fourth quarter advantage. The Jazz shot well in both games (53% overall!), so they are the ones that have to feel they may have let one "slip away." I still think not having the home court edge for the series is a major detriment to them. In the two games here in LA, they averaged only 94 points on roughly 47% shooting. That was despite going 18 of 44 from three-point range, a relatively good percentage. It's a good thing that Gobert came back for Game 4 as All-Star Gordon Hayward missed the entire 2H due to being sick. He's listed as probable for tonight, but I question how effective he'll be. Gobert probably isn't going 6 for 6 from the field again either, nor do I see Joe Johnson continuing his surprising strong play either.

The Clippers clearly need Paul to step up as he did in Game 3. Though the team only turned it over nine times in Game 4, they didn't shoot the ball nearly as well as Utah did (54% to 44%) and that ultinately was the difference. Defensively, the Clips are a much better team at home, allowing just 44% shooting for the year and about 100 PPG. Something else to keep in mind is that they have not lost B2B games since St. Patrick's Day. That's over a month. For the year, they are outscoring opponents by an impressive 11.1 points per game as a home favorite. They've played w/o Griffin before and I think will get the job done here. 10* LA Clippers

8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (9:05 ET): After the first two games here in San Antonio, it appeared as if the Spurs advancing was mere formality. After all, they took Game 1 by 29 and Game 2 by 14, making it look relatively easy in the process. But the two games in Memphis went a different way (Grizzlies won both) and now, all of a sudden, the Spurs face a virtual must-win tonight. I think the spread may be a bit high, but the one constant for me in this series has been that the total has been too low. By virtue of going into overtime, Game 4 easily went Over the total. However, OT was actually not necessary to the Over cashing as the game was tied 96-96 at the end of regulation. Two of the first three games went Over (was on both!) and considering tonight's O/U line matches the lowest of the series, that's the way I'm going yet again. 

San Antonio is the most efficient defensive team in the league and gives up only 96.7 points per game at home. But still, their home games average well above the total number of PPG being asked for here. That's due to the fact they also come in averaging 105.5 PPG themselves. Three times in this series, Kawhi Leonard has either matched or established a new career high for most points scored in a playoff game. In Game 4, he went for 43, scoring the team's final 16 in regulation. Unfortunately, he didn't have a ton of help. The rest of the team was an abysmal 2 of 20 from behind the three-point arc and I have to believe that will see guaranteed improvement tonight. The Spurs are 14-8 Over this season when off a loss.

Similarly, Memphis may be known for playing low-scoring affairs, but their total points per game average well exceeds the O/U line here. They actually allowed fewer PPG than the Spurs during the regular season (playing at fewer possessions), but even so, both they and their opponents averaged slightly more than 100 PPG. These are really low totals by 2017 NBA standards. In fact, the average O/U line for both of these teams this season is still > 200 pts. I also believe that the extra day of rest the teams received will be crucial here. That's because Memphis is 9-5 Over this season when playing w/ exactly. The Spurs are 9-3 Over in that same situation. 8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs

10* Washington (8:05 ET): Just a few days ago, the Wizards' playoff prospects were looking quite rosy. Not only did they hold a 2-0 series lead over the Hawks, but in the other half of their bracket, the 8-seeded Bulls had the same edge over the top-seeded Celtics. What a difference a couple of days can make! Not only have the Celtics rallied to tie up their series (2-2), but the Wiz were blown out in Game 3 by Atlanta, 116-98. It was a game the Hawks "had to have" and they played like it, leading the entire way. But that one result has created somewhat of an ideal scenario for Game 4 where I believe Washington is a solid value. Atlanta is still a mediocre group in my eyes and the likelihood of them playing that well in B2B games is quite minimal. Take the points. 

Don't blame the great John Wall for the Wizards' Game 3 loss. He scored 29 points, just missing out on a third straight 30+ pt effort. The issue was the other four members of the starting five combined for only 30 points Saturday! I'm willing to write that performance off as a "one-hit wonder" though as Washington fell behind huge early and never recovered. It was a 38-20 game after the first quarter and that 18-pt difference wound up being the final margin. For the Hawks, Paul Milsap and Dennis Schroeder both turned in strong efforts w/ 29 and 27 pts respectively. I wouldn't necessarily be anticipating a repeat of that performance tonight. Meanwhile, Wall's backcourt mate Bradley Beal is in line for a bounce back as he scored only 12 points on 6 of 20 shooting (0 for 6 from three-point range) in Game 3. That was after averaging 26.5 points in the first two games. 

Emotions are running high in this series w/ Markieff Morris and Milsap trading barbs via the media. Note that the impressive and somewhat physical defensive effort we saw from the Hawks in Game 3 is somewhat rare. They actually allow 105.6 PPG at home this year. I often forget Dwight Howard is even on this roster (you too?). After a double digit win, Atlanta is only 6-11 ATS this season. They're also just 4-8 ATS after topping 115 points. I look for improved shooting from Washington tonight and don't discount the importance of them having the best player in the series (Wall) on their roster. 10* Washington

10* Over Raptors/Bucks (7:05 ET): I'm a little astounded as to the lack of scoring we've seen so far in this series. The losing side has been held to 87 points or less in three of the four games, all Unders obviously. The lone Over in the series, Game 2 here in Toronto, was a 106-100 win for the Raptors and I anticipate a similar score tonight. The Raptors average 110.1 points per game here at the Air Canada Center. Milwaukee averages a healthy 103.2 PPG itself for the year. Thus, both teams' total PPG average greatly exceed the O/U line for Game 5, which is officially the lowest for any game in the series to date. Shooting numbers have been pretty ugly on both sides, hence the drop, but I suspect we'll see an increase moving forward. That's why I'm on the Over here.

Game 4, where I had Toronto and they won 87-76, was an ugly slugfest that saw the two teams combine to go 10 of 43 from three-point range. Overall, shooting was at a 39.1% clip for the game (63 of 161). Toronto shot just 33% from the floor in Game 3 and that was after a 20% night in the second half of their other loss (Game 1).  But, I again lean on the fact that this team averages 110.1 PPG at home. They were sixth overall in offensive efficiency during the regular season and it's not as if the Bucks were some kind of defensive stalwart (19th in defensive efficiency). The Over is 27-16 this year at the Air Canada Center, so I can't stress enough how shocking it is to see the Raptors only averaging 88.2 PPG on 39.9% shooting for the series.

When Toronto has lost, the focus has been on their starting backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. That duo combined for 51 pts in Game 4 as DeRozan was able to drive w/ far more success than we'd seen previously. There's still only been one time (Game 2) that both topped 20 pts in the same game though. Given both averaged 20+ in the reg season, I think we'll see a repeat of Gm 2. We should also see a dramatic increase in production from the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, who were a combined 10 of 31 from the floor last game, including 0 for 4 on three-point attempts. Seeing as Milwaukee averages 37.2% shooting from behind the arc and Toronto is above 39% at home, we are very likely to see the two teams combine for more than 30 total pts from three-point range this game. The Bucks are 14-8 Over this season following a DD loss. 10* Over Raptors/Bucks

10* Chicago (6:35 ET): After zigging with my Game of the Week on the Celtics in Game 3, I'll be "zagging" so-to-speak here on the Bulls for Game 4. The home team has yet to win a game in this best of seven affair, which 8th seeded Chicago now leads two games to one. The big story going into Game 3 had been the top seeded Celtics being down 0-2, but quickly shifted once it was annouced that the Bulls' Rajon Rondo would be out for the remainder of the series w/ a broken thumb. The early returns w/o Rondo were not good as the Bulls lost Game 3, 104-87, while committing 17 turnovers and having only 14 assists. But, I believe they'll bounce back tonight, as Rondo's absence really doesn't affect the Bulls' one key edge in this series and that's rebounding. Take the points.

Chicago finished the year 4th in rebound rate. Boston was 4th worst (27th). The Bulls, not surprisingly, currently own a significant edge on the boards through the first three games of this series. In playing Boston Game 3, I somewhat disregarded this edge for the Bulls and instead chose to focus on their poor shooting numbers. Sure enough, Jimmy Butler had an "off-night" as he was 7 of 21 from the field and didn't even attempt a single free throw (just 4th time all season). Now though, I expect Butler specifically and the rest of his teammates to bounce back. As we all know, rebounding is the way to counteract poor shooting. I can't envision Chicago shooting below 40% from the field again at home, which included 6 of 21 from three-point range. At the same time, expect Boston to regress from its 47.7% shooting percentage from Game 3. I also don't expect them to make 17 three-pointers again. 

Boston came into the playoffs as a somewhat shaky #1 seed. After the first two games, they appeared to be even shakier. As I anticipated, they then blew the Bulls out in Game 3, but one result won't change everything, nor will Rondo's absence. Concerning is that the Celtics only got to the FT line SEVEN times in Game 3. I should also mentione that they are just 5-11 ATS (only 9-8 SU) the game following a double digit win. As an underdog, the Bulls are 28-18 ATS this season, including 10-5 at home. They did cut the Boston lead to one (after trailing by as many as 20!) in Game 3. The Bulls are also still the better defensive team here. 10* Chicago

10* San Antonio (8:05 ET): The Spurs actually lost a game to Memphis, getting blown out in Game 3, 105-94 as 3.5-pt favorites. That final score is a little misleading in the sense that the Grizzlies led by as many as 22 in the second half (81-63 after third quarter). That snapped a 10-game playoff losing streak to San Antonio and was also HC David Fizdale's first ever postseason win. But while the price range has remained unchanged for Game 4, I believe that the result will. The Spurs have been an excellent bounce back team all season long, going 16-5 SU off a SU loss w/ the average margin of victory coming by 11.8 points per game. Fizdale's epic post-game rant (after Game 2) did its job, but it will be difficult to match that emotion for a second straight game. Remember that the Grizz are still w/o ace defender Tony Allen. Lay the points.

What was the difference between Games 1 & 2 vs. 3 (besides the venue)? Well, Memphis simply shot the ball a lot better. They were above 50% from the field, a far cry from the pair of sub-40% performances in San Antonio. While they may not shoot as poorly tonight as they did in the first two games, I do expect a sharp decline from Game 3. Remember that the Spurs are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis is one of the lowest scoring teams in the entire league and actually doesn't even average 100 PPG for the year. They scored only 82 in each of the first two games. Essentially, it was one quarter (the 3rd) that broke Game 3 open for the Grizzlies as they outscored the Spurs by 14. That quarter saw them make 10 of their first 14 shots while San Antonio missed 11 of its first 17. That stretch basically decided the game.

At the other end of the floor, look for the Spurs' Kawhi Leonard to regain his lost touch. After matching his career playoff high w/ 32 pts in Game 1 and then setting a new high w/ 37 in Game 2, he went for only 18 pts in Game 3. Without Allen to defend him, it's simply not likely that Leonard will have too many more "off nights" in this series. Tony Parker averaged 15 PPG in San Antonio, but was scoreless on four shots in Game 3. LaMarcus Aldridge was the only other starter besides Leonard to score in double figures as the entire five was pulled in the fourth quarter. Expect across the board improvement from each of the individual starters here. Meanwhile, Memphis has won only two of nine games in April and regression is likely. I expect Greg Popovich to stress the importance of finishing this series in five games to his players. 10* San Antonio

10* Toronto (3:05 ET): Needless to say, the Raptors got humiliated in Game 3. They lost 104-77 (were 2-pt underdogs) and the game was never really close as they trailed by 20 after the first quarter and 32 after three. That loss dropped them to a terrible 7-20 ATS in all playoff games the L3 years, including 2-12 ATS in first rounders. DeMar DeRozan was as big a culprit as any Thursday night, going 0 for 8 from the field. That was the worst shooting performance in the playoffs by a player who averaged at least 25 points per game in the regular season, ever. Toronto now trails the lower seeded Bucks 2-1, but as was the case in Game 2, I expect them to bounce back from a SU loss. We saw w/ a play earlier this week (OKC over Houston Gm 2) that teams off a blowout loss are often vastly undervalued the next game. That's the case here.

You'll perhaps recall that PG Kyle Lowry took the brunt of the blame for the Raptors' Game 1 loss at home. He shot 2 for 11 overall, including 0 for 6 from three-point range. In my Game 3 analysis, I wrote that a big game from both DeRozan and Lowry was imperative considering the Raptors are 8-2 SU when both scored 20+ in the same game. This Toronto team, not Cleveland or even Boston, finished the regular season w/ the best net efficiency rating and point differential in the Eastern Conference. That was despite being w/o Lowry for most of the second half. Being held to 83 pts and 77 pts by Milwaukee in this series has been relatively stunning. This is a team that averages 106.2 PPG for the year. 

Fortunately, DeRozan should improve. So if Lowry can keep his act together, the Raptors may again get a good game from both members of its starting backcourt. In Game 2, they combined for 45 points on 50% shooting. Also notable is that the Bucks are just 7-18 ATS the L3 seasons after holding a team to 85 points or less. This was priced as only a 39-win team in the regular season. Remember; Milwaukee is a young team that is not accustomed to playing with any kind of series lead. Ranking only 19th in defensive efficiency is worrisome as well (Toronto is 8th) and the Bucks are also inferior at the offensive end as well (13th vs. 6th). Had the Raptors not shot only 20% in the second half of Game 1, they very well would have won both home games. 10* Toronto

10* Boston (7:05 ET): Coming into the playoffs, many questioned the validity of the Celtics as the East's #1 seed. Certainly, they were not the favorite (Cleveland is). Nor did they finish the regular season with the best point differential or net efficiency rating (Toronto did). But I don't think anybody expected them to drop both games at home to the mediocre Bulls. The only way I can explain what has transpired so far in this series is that the 8-seed has a decided edge in rebounding and has exploited it. In the regular season, Chicago ranked 4th in rebound rate while Boston was 27th. In the two games so far, the Bulls are +22 on the boards, although Game 2 was close to even. Obviously, the passing of Isaiah Thomas' sister has had an effect on the Celtics' best player, but he did have 33 pts in Game 1 and the team still lost. With the series now moving to the Windy City, I think people are going to be quick to write off the Celtics, but that's a mistake. Take the points.

With Chicago winning both games in Boston, a shift from the oddsmakers was predictable, but I'm not yet convinced the Bulls should be favored. As I said earlier, this was a decidedly mediocre team in the regular season. They barely outscored their opponents over the course of the 82 games. They were only priced as a 36-win team, so they slightly overachieved, and when favored they actually didn't perform all that well. Not only did they go 15-21 ATS, but they were just 19-17 straight up. They were also 28th in true shooting and 30th (last) in effective field goal percentage, so this is a bad offensive team. But they shot 51.1% from the floor in Game 2. I'm as shocked as any that they've averaged 108.5 points the first two games. The likes of Paul Zipser and Bobby Portis have made unlikely contributions thus far.

Changes are likely in the Celtics lineup for Game 3, but HC Brad Stevens in being coy. One thing we do know is that Boston is 8-3 SU/ATS this season following a double digit loss. This team posted a winning road record in the regular season and it's their offense that I expect to come alive tonight in the United Center. Note Chicago only shoots 43.8% from the floor at home. Boston averages a healthy 106.5 PPG on the road and I expect FT shooting to improve from the first two games. This is a team that shoots over 80% from the charity stripe. A "must win" for the Celtics and I have them getting the job done. 10* Boston

10* Over Spurs/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): This series has the look of a possible sweep as the Spurs have taken the first two games by margins of 29 and 14 points. But now the scene shifts to Memphis and if there's one game you'd figure the Grizzlies win, it would be this one. I'm not willing to take that change however as I was burned by them in Game 2 (they did cut the lead to five in the fourth quarter). But I am willing to bank on the fact we'll start to see more scoring, not just from Memphis, but San Antonio as well. The Grizzlies have shot the ball terribly the first two games and as a result the O/U line has plummeted for Game 3. I feel the time is ideal to go w/ the Over, a bet I cashed in Game 1.

Now we are dealing with two of the top teams in defensive efficiency here. San Antonio, in fact, finished the regular season ranked #1. But Memphis is hurting - figuratively and literally - without Tony Allen. His absence was duly noted in my Game 1 Over play and sure enough the Spurs scored 111 points on 53.2% shooting w/ Kawhi Leonard leading the way w/ 32 pts. Leonard then set a new career-high w/ 37 pts in Game 2. He's 28 of 28 from the free throw line in two games. That's what happens w/ Allen being out. Overall, San Antonio didn't shoot quite as well in Game 2 (were 31 of 32 from the FT line!), but they're still 19 of 42 from three-point range in the series and that certainly is a bad sign here for Memphis. Playing w/ exactly two days of rest this season, the Spurs are 8-3-1 Over. 

Thus the key for this play is probably Memphis shooting better than they have. Certainly, they can't shoot any worse than they did in the first two games (38% overall). They are 14 of 47 from three-point range. Fortunately, due to the epic post-game rant from HC David Fizdale, they are very likely to get more free throw attempts tonight. (That's just the way the NBA playoffs work). When they get there, expect them to take advantage as they're 26 of 32 from the charity stripe in this series and 78.6% there for the year at home. Even with Grizzlies' home games being among the lowest scoring in the league, the average total PPG (196.3) still topples tonight's O/U line. So too do San Antonio road games (203.8 PPG). Believe it or not, but Tuesday was just the 8th time this season that the Spurs held an opponent below 85 pts. They are 5-2 Over the next game. They are also 12-6 Over if holding the opponent below 90 pts their last time out. 10* Over Spurs/Grizzlies

8* Toronto (8:05 ET): I'm going w/ the Raptors, on the road, for Game 3. They evened this series up at 1-1 w/ a 106-100 win in Game 2 Tuesday. However, they failed to cover (closed as 8-pt favorites), dropping them to 2-11 ATS in first round playoff games the L3 years. But, they did lead by double digits early in the fourth quarter before letting the Bucks back in the game. Kyle Lowry was a lot better than he was in Game 1, shooting 50% overall, and the team went from making just five three-pointers in Game 1 to 14 in Game 2. Even after factoring in the change in home court, it certainly seems to appear as if there's some value here on Toronto, who is now an underdog for just the second time in seven meetings this year vs. Milwaukee. Take the points.

After winning and covering this season's first three head to head meetings w/ the Bucks, Toronto has failed to cover three in a row. But as I just stated, only once previous to tonight have they been an underdog to Milwaukee. While they did lose that game, 101-94 (despite outshooting the Bucks), I still feel the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. Toronto went 12-7 ATS in the regular season as a road dog and overall they've been favored in 15 of their last 18 games. The key tonight is not just Lowry, but DeMar DeRozan as well. Game 2 marked the 10th time that both members of the Raptors' starting backcourt scored 20+ points. The team has gone 8-2 SU in those games. 

Milwaukee was not great as a home favorite during the regular season, going only 18-11 SU and 12-17 ATS. Obviously, the pointspread is likely irrelevant here as the SU winner is almost assured of covering the spread. But still, that SU record isn't exactly great either. Overall, the Bucks were favored just 39 times during the regular season, so you can actually say they overachieved. Down the stretch, they went 17-10 SU, but were actually outscored on a per possession/game basis. Ranking only 19th in defensive efficiency is worrisome as well (Toronto is 8th) and the Bucks are also inferior at the offensive end as well (13th vs. 6th). The Raptors are simply the better team here and were it not for a dreadful second-half shooting performance in Game 1 (20%!), then they'd likely already be up 2-0. 8* Toronto

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): I came into this series thinking that OKC didn't have much of a chance seeing that I've labeled them as "overrated" much of this year. But even I was taken aback at how thoroughly they were dominated by the Rockets in a 118-87 Game 1 loss. Thus, I anticipate it will an "abandon ship" mentality here from the majority of bettors. But I'll choose to "buy low" as I expect a bounce back tonight in Game 2.  Remember that last year saw the Thunder get crushed in a Game 1 matchup vs. the Spurs (124-92) and they came back to not only win Game 2, but the entire series. There's no Kevin Durant obviously for this go-around and I'm not convinced OKC can come back to win this series. But they'll at least cover tonight. Take the points. 

This series very much centers around the individual battle between Houston's James Harden and OKC's Russell Westbrook, who are thought to be the two leading MVP candidates. In the four regular season head to head matchups, Westbrook outscored Harden by about 16 PPG. But, scoring was 37-22 in favor of Harden in Game 1. Obviously, if Westbrook only scores 22 again, the Thunder have little chance. But I anticipate his scoring will go up tonight. He probably can't shoot any worse than he did Sunday night when he went 6 of 23 from the field, including 3 of 11 from three-point range. Patrick Beverley gave Westbrook trouble, but can he do it again? I should point out that the series opener was a five-point game going into halftime. Things really fell apart for OKC in the fourth quarter, leading to a somewhat misleading final score.

On the defensive end, the Thunder did a good job limiting the Rockets on three-pointers. Houston was just 10 of 33 from behind the arc in Game 1, so the fact they still won by 31 is somewhat shocking. The key was 62 points in the paint, half of them coming on second-chance opportunities. Here is where the big difference should come for Game 2. OKC was actually the top rebounding team in the league during the regular season, so I don't anticipate Houston enjoying that same kind of edge inside again. Overall, the Thunder rate as the better defensive team here (10th in efficiency vs. 17th). Beverley scoring 21 pts again shouldn't happen as defending Westbrook is likely to wear on him. 10* Oklahoma City

8* Boston (8:05 ET): Every home team playing on Tuesday lost Game 1 outright. The Celtics are the top seed in the Eastern Conference but a 106-102 loss to the pedestrian Bulls will do nothing to dispel the notion that they are somewhat fortunate to own that distinction. Of course, a major storyline heading into this series is the death of Isaiah Thomas' sister. Thomas, his team's best player, performed admirably in Game 1 (33 points on 10 of 18 shooting) but clearly had to be affected by the obviously horrible situation. For the first 44 minutes of the game, neither side had more than a two possession lead. So it's not as if Boston played all that poorly. They were outrebounded (53-36) and their bench outscored (35-22). But I don't expect those kind of discrepancies here plus Chicago's Jimmy Butler isn't likely to score 23 pts in the second half again. Lay the points.

The Bulls were thought to have the edge in rebounding coming into this series as they ranked 4th in rebound rate during the regular season while the Celtics were 27th. But cleaning up the defensive glass is imperative here for Boston considering how poorly Chicago tends to shoot the ball. In the regular season, the Bulls ranked dead last in the league in effective field goal percentage and were 28th in true shooting percentage. It's not like they shot the ball that well in Game 1. They were just 42.9% overall including 8 of 25 from three-point range. Going 20 of 23 at the line was key as were all 35 pts from the reserves. The performance of Bobby Portis was particularly preposterous as he had 19 points, nine rebounds and two blocked shots. Portis averaged only 6.8 points and 4.5 rebounds in the regular season. 

So besides rebound better and hope the Bulls bench regresses, what else can the Celtics hope for here? Well, they should shoot better as a whole. They averaged 109.4 PPG at home during the regular season on 45.5% shooting. They were slightly below both numbers in Game 1. Also, I should point out that Chicago is just 17-25 SU on the road. They had gone 0-2 SU/ATS in their two reg season visits to Boston, including a 20-point loss last month. As much as I feel the Celtics are a weak #1 seed (I have them rated third in the conference behind Toronto and Cleveland), it's not like the Bulls are a great team. The home team should bounce back in this one as teams seeded 1-3 in the first round of the playoffs are 50-6 SU, 37-17-2 ATS if they lost Game 1 outright. 8* Boston

full analysis soon

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): So, as alluded to in the play on the Over for this game, I'm going to be laying the points w/ the Raptors here. Incredibly, Game 1 marked the EIGHTH conseuctive playoff series that Toronto dropped Game 1. Twice last year, they were able to rally back after doing so, ousting Indiana and Miami. I feel it will be a similar "song and verse" in this series. Much of my confidence comes from the likelihood that Toronto's offense, Kyle Lowry in particular, will perform much better tonight than Saturday. For the record, after losing Game 1 of their first round series vs. Indiana LY, the Raptors came back to not only win, but also cover the spread in Game 2. Same thing this year. Lay the points.

Toronto actually led Game 1 at the half, 51-46. But the wheels came off after halftime w/ them scoring only 32 total points on 7 of 35 shooting! They finished the game at only 36% from the field. Lowry was the biggest offender, going 2 for 11 (no FT attempts!) including 0 for 6 from three-point range. As a team, they shot 5 of 23 from behind the arc. I expect across the board improvement here in Game 2. Like I mentioned in the Over writeup, this is a team that averages 110.2 PPG at home for the year. They shoot 47.2% overall from the floor including 37% from three-point range. 

The Bucks are 6-18 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 85 pts or less the last three seasons. Though I like this game to go Over, it is worth noting Milwaukee has failed to top 100 points in six consecutive games. Interesting is that even though the Bucks went 17-10 SU down the stretch, they were outscored during that time. This is a team w/ a losing road record and considering they've already "stolen" home court advantage for the series, the likelihood of a letdown here is strong. 8* Toronto

10* Memphis (9:35 ET): The Grizzlies were absolutely hammered in Game 1. I had the Over, a play which cashed, but it was no thanks to the Grizz. They scored just 82 points in a 29 point loss. Predictably, after suffering such a blowout, they'll be getting plenty more points in Game 2. That's a perfect time to attack, in my opinion. Needless to say, it's not as if things can go any worse than they did Saturday where they shot only 39.2% from the floor and the Spurs shot 53.2%. As explained in my analysis for Game 1, losing Tony Allen hurts both literally and figuratively, but Memphis remains a staunch defensive team. They also beat San Antonio twice during the regular season. Granted, both wins were at home, but never have they gotten this many points.

With a pointspread this high and a total so low, taking points just seems like the natural way to go. It should be pointed out that it was only a three-point game at halftime Saturday and Memphis actually led after one quarter of play. After halftime, they could make nothing. They scored just 33 pts in the second half. Incredibly, they scored only 52 points over the last three quarters! That's very rare. As good as the Spurs are defensively (#1 in efficiency), they will be hard pressed to match that Game 1 performance. They key trend here is that double digit dogs are 26-12-1 ATS come playoff time when off a SU loss. Think of the Grizzlies as a stock. This is a good "buy low" situation.

I know that in the analysis for my Game 1 Over play, I wrote extensively about the impact Allen's absence would have. But the Grizzlies were the #3 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season and should be able to play respectable enough on that end of the floor even w/o Allen. Kawhi Leonard is unlikely to match Saturday's performance in which he matched a career playoff high w/ 32 points. Lost in the blowout was the fact the Grizzlies' Marc Gasol scored 25 first half points, the most by any player against a Greg Popovich team in playoff history! Gasol obviously isn't likely to be as prolific in the first 24 minutes here, but he's also likely to score more than the seven he scored in the second half Saturday. Spurs are just 2-5 ATS L7 when leading in a playoff series. 10* Memphis.

10* Under Blazers/Warriors (3:30 ET): News flash: Golden State finished tied for top honors as an Under team during the regular season. A combination of high totals and their underrated defense was the culprit there. They finished 49-32-1 Under in all games, including 21-12-1 in the second half. In what projects as - easily - the most lopsided first round playoff series, the two-time defending Western Conference Champs draw Portland, who by making the playoffs probably didn't do wonders for their future (could have used the lottery pick). The Blazers fell off somewhat dramatically this year, going from 5th to 8th in the West, though it was only a difference of three wins. Things got a lot better once they acquired Jusuf Nurkic from Denver, but he's now hurt and no one is picking them to do much in this series.

The pointspread is the "great equalizer," however, thus I'll be staying away from the side for Game 1. Instead, let's take a look at the total. As mentioned above, Golden State is quite underrated defensively. We all know they ranked 1st in offensive efficiency (third straight year doing so), but they were also 2nd in defensive efficiency, trailing only San Antonio. The real key for them is defending the three-point line. They were #1 in the league, allowing just 32.4% shooting from behind the arc. Given that the three-point shot is such a big component of Portland's arsenal, they are likely to be "up against it" here. Furthermore, Nurkic may not play, which would be a devastating blow. After scoring 130 pts (against lowly Phoenix) in their first game w/o him, it's been major regression ever since. Over the L5 games (all w/o Nurkic), the Blazers have seen their scoring average dip below 100 PPG. 

Golden State will certainly "get theirs" today, but if the game turns into a blowout, then expect the scoring to slow down in the latter stages. Three times in the regular season, the Dubs scored at least 125 pts on Portland, but I do not expect that to be the case here today. When playing w/ three or more days rest this season, the Blazers are 3-0 Under. Nurkic was averaging 15-10, so that's a significant loss. Six times in the last nine visits to Oakland, Damian Lillard has been held to 20 pts or fewer while shooting below 36 percent from the field. 10* Under Blazers/Warriors

10* Utah (10:35 ET): Make no mistake about it. The fact that the Jazz conceded home court advantage to the Clippers late in the year for this 1st round playoff series could end up being their death knell. But, that's no reason to think they can't be competitive or even steal a game here at Staples Center. After all, the Jazz did finish the year w/ a superior efficiency rating. They are also the superior defensive team here, ranking third in the league in defensive efficiency and first in points allowed. That's obviously significant. The Clips' three regular season wins over the Jazz all did come by double digits, but I anticipate this game being close w/ the underdog certainly having a shot at the outright win. Take the points.

Look for the Jazz to slow the pace down in this series. They played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season. That aided them in giving up just 96.8 points per game. Considering the defensive numbers, I have been absolutely shocked to see this team struggle as an underdog. They are just 5-17 SU and 6-15-1 ATS in that role, but it's rare that they get this many points. It's difficult to overstate Rudy Gobert's impact on the defensive end as he averages a league-high 2.64 blocks per game. For so much of the year, this team was not healthy. They still won 51 times and remember they were priced to win 60. That's more than the Clippers, who were favored "only" 58 times.

After a 14-2 SU start, LA went a modest 37-29 the rest of the way. Yes, some of that was Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both missing time. When that duo plays together, this is certainly a dominant team. But while bench play is somewhat mitigated this time of year, the Clippers' reserves have long been an albatross. In the four head to head meetings between these two, the Jazz' reserves outplayed their Clippers' counterparts. In their three losses to the Clippers, Utah shot poorly. I do not anticipate that being the case here in Game 1 as overall this was a good shooting team (46.6 FG%) during the year. 10* Utah

8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs (8:05 ET): By 2017 NBA standards, this Game 1 total is incredibly low. Granted, these teams ranked 1-7 in defensive efficiency during the regular season and just combined for only 168 points in regulation in their last meeting. But I still believe you have to go Over a total as low as this one.This O/U line is lower than any of the four regular season matchups. San Antonio games average slightly more than 203 PPG while Memphis games average slightly more than 200 PPG. Those numbers are noticeably higher than the Game 1 O/U line here. San Antonio averages over 105 PPG, so I'm not concerned at all over the fact they failed to break 100 in any of their final three reg season contests (when they had NOTHING to play for). Take the Over.

There's no sugarcoating this one iota. Memphis has received terrible news in that ace defender Tony Allen is expected to miss this entire series. Expect his absence to further hurt a Grizzlies defense that slipped in the second half. Allen's calf injury occurred in the regular season finale, so we don't have a huge body of work to go on when he's M.I.A.. But we do know that he was the primary defended on the Spurs' Kawhi Leonard and played a large role in holding him to 23 of 54 shooting in three regular season games. Also, Leonard missed one of the regular season matchups, a game where the Spurs scored just 74 pts. Just go ahead and toss that game out the window as it bears little meaning here and only skews San Antonio's scoring capability against Memphis. Note that w/o Allen in the lineup, the Grizz gave up a MINIMUM of 95 pts every game and an average of 101.7 PPG. 

San Antonio averages over 105 PPG at home and Memphis' defense suffers on the road. So, the question now becomes: can the Grizzlies score enough to help send this one over? Yes. If Marc Gasol regains his January form. Also, three-point shooting will be key. Grizzlies' road games were substantially higher scoring than their home games, in part due to their own scoring average rising. The end result of that was a 24-17 Over mark in their road games. This wasn't a great shooting team down the stretch, but they can't get any worse and their defense is likely to slip significantly w/o Allen. San Antonio should shoot better here than it did down the stretch as well. 8* Over Grizzlies/Spurs

10* Over Bucks/Raptors (5:35 ET): I think this is going to be the "best" (i.e. most competitive) first round playoff series in the East. I was a big fan of the Bucks this year, so it's nice to see them in the postseason following a one-year hiatus. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads a promising young squad that underachieved much of the first half, but finally played up to its potential down the stretch. Milwaukee is one of just seven teams in the East to outscore its opponents during the regular season (ironically two of them, Miami & Charlotte, FAILED to make the playoffs). Antetokounmpo, the so-called "Greek Freak," became the first player since LeBron James in 2008-09 (1st stint in Cleveland) to lead his team in all major statistical categories and he did it at age 22.

Toronto finished third in the East, but has the best point differential and did so despite losing Kyle Lowry for most of the second half. They went 18-7 SU w/o Lowry and were severely undervalued much of that time. Now that the All-Star PG has returned, I believe the market is spot on for Game 1. I do find it interesting that Milwaukee actually went 17-10 SU in the 2nd half even though it was outscored, a sharp contrast to the 1st half when they were under .500 despite outscoring opponents. The Bucks were by no means outstanding underdogs (just 18-23 ATS), but the Raptors' 7-17 ATS playoff mark (2-9 in 1st rd games) is worrisome. 

So let's finally look at the total. Both teams ended the regular season by scoring far less than they averaged over the balance of the season. The Bucks averaged just 88.2 points the L5 games, well below their season average of 103.6. Perhaps that's why this total is so astonishingly low. At the same time, they also allowed only 97.4 PPG those L5 contests, significantly fewer than their season average of 103.8. For the record, the Bucks were 4-1 Over after the Break w/ a total of 200 pts or lower. Likewise, Toronto's total PPG average for the year far exceeds the total here and what we saw from them the last five games. At home, the Raptors average 110.9 PPG and it's not as if Milwaukee is some kind of defensive stalwart. In fact, the Bucks rank 19th in defensive efficiency. Both teams went Over more than they did Under in the regular season and that was w/ average O/U lines much higher than this one. This O/U line is also lower than all four regular season matchups. 10* Over Bucks/Raptors

10* Under T'wolves/Rockets (8:05 ET): One of these teams is wrapping up its season tonight while the other is getting ready for a 1st round playoff series vs. the Thunder. Minnesota is the former and while their record is a lousy 31-50 (worse than Sacramento!), they're a much better team than that and should make the playoffs next year. They've only been outscored by roughly one point per game and have the most blown double-digit leads in the league. Last night saw them lose a tough one at home to Oklahoma City, 100-98, a game in which they were actually four-point favorites (no Westbrook for OKC). That offensive performance is hardly inspiring for tonight's finale and I'll again remind you that in terms of makes, this is the worst three-point shooting team in the league. Take the Under.

Houston has no issues offensively as they'll finish second in efficiency, behind only Golden State. That said, they're off a rare sub-100 pt effort Monday as they were blown out in LA by the Clippers. Things should improve here against the 26th ranked team in defensive efficiency, but to what degree? HC Mike D'Antoni has been resting players in preparation for the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised if this is a short night for MVP candidate James Harden as well. The team is 7-3 Under this season when coming off a double digit loss. After giving up a total of 253 total pts the last two games, I do expect to see some improvement on the defensive end, however. Minnesota, whose two young superstars (Wiggins and Towns) rank near the top of the NBA in minutes played, might very well be "gassed" by this point, especially w/ this being the second game of a back to back. 

While "old hat" for Houston, this is a high O/U line by T'wolves' standards. They are 6-2 Under this season when the total is 220 points or higher. Yes, the last time these teams met, they combined for 272 points and that was in regulation. That was each team's season high in points scored. But I seriously doubt we'll see a repeat of those performances as the Rockets were 22 of 58 from three point range and the T'wolves shot 52% overall from the floor. Also, the teams combined for 70 free throws that night. The Rockets have actually seen six of their last eight games stay Under the total, a sign that the oddsmakers have begun posting totals that are too high. 10* Under T'wolves/Rockets

8* Over Hawks/Pacers (8:05 ET): It all sets up pretty well for the Pacers to make the playoffs and take on LeBron James and the defending NBA Champion Cavailers in the opening round. By virtue of a win last night, the Hawks have nothing to play for in tonight's regular season finale as they are locked into the #5 seed and will take on Washington in the opening round. Thus, we've seen a rather sizable jump in the line for this game. I'm not interested in laying that many points w/ Indiana, but I do believe there's plenty of value w/ the O/U line, which seems far too low. The Pacers have averaged 117.8 points over their last five contests and are a far more prolific team at home. I highly doubt we'll see anything close to Atlanta's defensive performance from last night when they held a Kemba Walker-less Charlotte team to just 76 points.

No matter who ends up making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, I view the Hawks as the weakest team in the field. They've actually been outscored over the course of the season. Last night helped that scoring differential a lot, but tonight likely adversely affects it. Key players will likely be rested in preparation for the playoffs, so the offense could take a hit. Yet, there will be a hit at the defensive end as well. With zero to play for, I can't see the Hawks playing lockdown defense tonight. Indiana will absolutely shoot better than the ugly 33% we saw from the Hornets last night. 

In fact, the last two games have seen the Pacers shoot 59.3% and 57.6% respectively. Admittedly, that was against Orlando and Philadelphia. But the "skeleton crew" they'll be facing here may not offer much more resistance. Also, this is a home game and Indiana is 28-12 SU here, averaging 107 PPG. Paul George has topped 20 pts in 11 consecutive games, overall. Defensively, I'd like to point out that the team just gave up a combined 223 points the L2 games, to two of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Under may have cashed in both prior head to head meetings this season, but this is the lowest O/U line of the three games. Thus, there's some value in taking the Over as the game could very well end up as a blowout and feature little in the way of defense late. 8* Over Hawks/Pacers

8* Charlotte (7:35 ET): Atlanta is off a pair of stunning victories over Cleveland, the second of which saw them become just the third team in NBA history to rally back from a deficit of 26 points or more in the fourth quarter. Those two wins have them in the playoffs, though their seeding remains totally up for grabs. They could finish anywhere from fifth to seventh depending on how these last two games go. Tomorrow night, they'll wrap their regular season up against Indiana, a national TV game that will play a significant role in who finishes were (the Pacers are one of the teams fighting w/ the Hawks for playoff position). But up first, the Hawks must host Charlotte and this looks like a classic overlay due to the teams' respective lots in life. Take the points. 

I'm telling you right now. Next year, I will be subbing Charlotte in for Atlanta as a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. Despite being only 36-45, which is 6.5 games back of the Hawks, the Hornets have actually outscored their opponents over the course of the season and have a positive net efficiency rating. Atlanta can claim neither of those two distinctions. In fact, the Hawks are ninth in the Eastern Conference in point differential. Charlotte lost last night in Milwaukee, 89-79 as 6.5-point dogs, and will again be w/o leading scorer Kemba Walker here. That, along w/ Atlanta trying to lock down the 5-seed, has conspired to make this line far higher than it should. Teams are often significantly undervalued in the second game of a back to back. 

Now, the Hornets are just 4-22 SU as underdogs this year. But the real reason they won't be making the playoffs is an 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less. They are also 0-6 SU in overtime games. Another close loss here would do us just fine and I should note that Charlotte is 3-0 SU/ATS head to head vs. Atlanta this season.That includes one of those four SU wins as a dog, which took place here in Atlanta back on December 17th. As discouraging as last night's offensive effort was, Charlotte is definitely undervalued in this spot. Atlanta, meanwhile, is just 3-8 ATS after scoring 115+ points the previous game. They were extremely lucky to beat Cleveland both times over the weekend. 8* Charlotte

8* Houston (10:35 ET): The Clippers find themselves in the midst of a fierce battle for home court advantage (w/ the Jazz) in the 1st round of the playoffs while the Rockets already know who they'll be taking on next week (Oklahoma City). That being said, LA does not deserve to be favored by this much against a superior team, even here at Staples Center where they have lost only seven times all year as a favorite. They are just .500 at the betting window in home games. I suspect the reason for this inflated number is that Houston finds itself playing in the second game of a back to back. They won last night in Sacramento, 135-128, but failed to cover as nine-point favorites. It was their seventh straight game not covering. But fortunately, they are 13-2 SU, 10-4-1 ATS in the second game of a back to back. Take the points here.

The Rockets put up 75 points in the first half last night, the 10th such time they've tallied 70+ before halftime this season. Granted, it was "only the Kings," but be aware that non-cover was a byproduct of being "backdoored" in the fourth quarter (outscored 39-28). James Harden, who is the thick of the MVP race, answered Russell Westbrook w/ his own triple double last night (35-11-15). To me, Houston is clearly the third best team in basketball. It is rare to find them getting points, but when they do - take 'em. Their record as an underdog this season is 9-3 ATS (9-1-1 on the road). Earlier I mentioned the Rockets' excellent record when playing w/o rest. I've often harped upon the fact that unrested teams are among the most undervalued in the sport, especially when on the road. Incredibly, the Rockets are outscoring opponents by over 10 PPG in the second game of a B2B and that includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark if both were on the road. 

The Clippers have taken advantage of a somewhat fortuitous schedule of late in compiling a five-game win streak. That includes games against the Suns, Lakers and Mavs. They did post an impressive 98-87 victory at San Antonio (who was NOT resting starters) on Saturday. I suspect that result also has a heavy influence in this number being inflated. The Clips' defense has been much better of late, but this is the second most efficient offense in the game they'll be facing tonight. It's a national TV affair and w/ Harden making his case for MVP, Houston will be motivated. To me, this line should be closer to a pick 'em. 8* Houston

10* Under T'wolves/Lakers (9:35 ET): Neither of these teams are headed for the postseason, but the respective future outlooks are much different. Minnesota is a team I'd buy stock in - right now. Sure, a 31-48 SU record looks wholly unimpressive, especially when you consider they're tied w/ a Sacramento team that essentially gave up at the trade deadline. But, a look inside the numbers reveals the vast potential that the T'wolves have. Thursday's 105-98 setback in Portland marked the 21st time this year the team has lost a game in which it held a double digit lead! They've only been outscored by a margin of 1.1 points per game over the course of the season. So, expect a big jump in the standings next year. As for the Lakers, who have inexplicably won three straight (allowed < 100 pts in B2B games!), I wouldn't trust Magic Johnson w/ your money.

This will be the third matchup between these teams in the last 16 days. The previous two both went Over the total as have the last five overall. All five of those games have seen remarkably good shooting from both sides. Considering neither is exactly stout defensively (Lakers are 29th in efficiency), maybe that shouldn't come as a shock. But the performance we saw from the Lakers the last time they hosted Minnesota (14 of 23 from three-point range) isn't going to be repeated any time soon. Sure enough, they dropped to 9 of 27 in a 119-104 loss in Minnesota the following week. Speaking of three-point range, the T'wolves are among the least prolific teams in the league in that department. They, in fact, average the fewest number of makes per game (7.4).

I cashed the Under in Minnesota's aforementioned loss to Portland Thursday. It was an easy double digit winner. But Friday's loss to Utah wound up being a pretty wild game. They lost that one 120-113 as they allowed the Jazz to shoot 60% from the field. Just by the law of averages, the defense will be better tonight. Right after the All-Star Break, this team saw a rash of Unders cash (six straight), so it was only natural for the Over to make a "rally" over the last month. As mentioned earlier, the Lakers have actually held B2B opponents under 100 pts. The final score from the last home game vs. Minnesota is misleading as it was an overtime game. I like the Under here. 10* Under T'wolves/Lakers

10* Under Thunder/Nuggets (5:05 ET): Oklahoma City is off an absolutely dreadful performance, one where they were blown out by a Phoenix team that came in on a 13-game losing streak. I'm proud to report I took the Suns in that one (who needed that +8?) and while I stated in my analysis that OKC had little to play for (they're basically locked into a 1st round matchup w/ Houston), you still would have expected a better performance than that. Of course, the most notable item from said defeat was that Russell Westbrook clinched averaging a triple double for the entire season. He's the only player besides Oscar Robertson to acheive that impressive feat and would need one more triple double to break "The Big O's" single-season record w/ 42. Though one would expect Westbrook and the entire Thunder team to shoot better than they did Friday, I still believe Under is the way to go here.

The thing w/ Westbrook's individual accolades is that the team's offensive efficiency has fallen off somewhat dramatically. I've been harping on this throughout the year. Last year w/ Kevin Durant, the Thunder finished #2 in the league in offensive efficiency. This year, they've dipped all the way down to 16th! Down the stretch, Westbrook has not shot the ball well at all as his pursuit of the triple double record seems to have superseeded having an efficient offense. He's barely shooting 40% from the floor in April and had his worst shooting game of the season against Phoenix, including an odious 2 for 13 first half. He finished the game just 6 of 25 overall and 2 of 12 from three-point range.

Let's talk about Denver some, shall we? They've played well down the stretch, yet the odds for making the playoffs are not in their favor. They trail Portland by 1.5 games w/ three to play. They have been the top Over team in the league this year due to the combination of having the fourth most efficient offense and 30th (last!) ranked defense. The Over has hit in both previous meetings vs. OKC this year (five straight overall!), but this O/U line is the highest yet. Defensively, they should benefit from the fact that the Thunder's scoring average dips to 103.7 PPG on the road. Meanwhile, I do not see the Nuggets' recent level of scoring - both in terms of points scored and allowed - being sustained. Add up their total PPG average for the year and it's below this O/U line. The same certainly holds true for OKC. 10* Under Thunder/Nuggets

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Yes, it must be mentioned that a Suns team that has lost 13 straight games has absolutely nothing to play for here. But neither does Oklahoma City really. In all likelihood, the Thunder will be the 6-seed in the playoffs play Houston. From an individual perspective, Russell Westbrook is still looking to make history and become the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple double over the course of a season. He needs one more triple double to set the single season record (42). But something I've been harping on all season is that overall, OKC's offensive efficiency is way down from last year w/ Kevin Durant. They also have a losing road record and are outscoring teams by less than a point per game. Clearly, this number is inflated. Take the points.

Phoenix has not won a game since beating Dallas 100-98 back on March 11th. While a 13-game losing skid is bad no matter what way you "slice it," the fact is the Suns have been competitive in most of the games. They did fall behind Golden State 41-18 after one quarter on Wednesday, but quickly rallied back to make it a five-point game at halftime and very nearly covered the spread for the game, losing by nine as 8.5-pt home dogs. This line is curious because Oklahoma City is getting basically the same respect from the linesmakers as did the Warriors and that notion is pretty preposterous. Golden State is outscoring teams by double digits this season while the Thunder have been pretty mediocre. The Suns beat the Thunder here at home last month (118-111) and were only five-point underdogs then.  

I mentioned earlier that OKC has a losing road record. They are just 17-21 SU and being outscored by 4.3 points per game. They did just win at Memphia, but only by three. Giving up 108.1 PPG on the road makes it tough to cover as a favorite in this price range and while the defense has been better the L2 games, I see it regressing here as the Suns are #2 in the league in tempo and average 109.1 PPG at home. Rookie point guard Tyler Ulis has played well of late, including a 34-point effort Sunday vs. the Rockets. I see the home team keeping this one closer than expected. 10* Phoenix

8* Under T'wolves/Blazers (10:35 ET): Right now, Portland has the inside track for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference (top seven teams have clinched). They not only have the head to head tiebreaker over the Nuggets, but also a one-game advantage in the standings. Plus, they play their final four games at home, starting w/ this one against Minnesota. Expect the young T'wolves to be a playoff team next year, but for now they're just relegated to spoiler. Given the circumstances involves, this line seems about right, but I think the total is too high. Both teams have been scoring and allowing more points per game than usual recently, thus we should start to see a return to "normal" levels any day now. It starts here w/ a play on the Under.

Minnesota's last five games have all gone Over the total as they've averaged 113.6 PPG while at the same time allowing 114.2. For the year, they average "just" 105.5 PPG and allow 106.4. So, that's a pretty substantial increase we've seen of late (about 16 PPG), one that should regress to the mean. As you can see, the team's average total points per game for the season is noticeably below what the O/U line is for this matchup. Although they did go Over the total against Portland three days ago (just barely), the Under remains 9-2 for the T'wolves in division contests this season. This is their third game in four nights as well (and they're at Utah tomorrow), so fatigue could be a factor for this young squad.

Monday's matchup between these two saw the T'wolves prevail 111-109. The O/U line was 217. Minnesota won despite making only four three-pointers the entire game, but don't expect much of an increase in that department tonight as this is one of the least prolific three-point shooting teams in the league. As for Portland, they are off a dreadful offensive effort Tuesday night in Utah where they scored just 87 points on 39.8% shooting. Granted, Minnesota is nowhere close to Utah on the defensive end, but I think they can slow the Blazers down enough to help keep this one Under the total. The Under has cashed in three straight meetings here in Portland. 8* Under T'wolves/Blazers

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Sixers infamous "process" has generally been maligned, but at least the team is getting it done at the betting window where they are a league-best 48-29-1 ATS. Miami is the only other team in the league right now that can claim to be covering at better than a 60% clip. Now things have gotten dicey in the City of Brotherly Love recently as the team has reverted back to its past ways by losing four in a row. By far, the more humiliating (and inexcusable) defeat of the quartet came here at home Tuesday against Brooklyn when they allowed 141 points. That result is sure to cause the majority of bettors to "write this team off" but I'll buy low as Chicago is unworthy of being in this price range on the road. Take the points.

The Bulls also enter in off an embarrassing defeat. There's also came Tuesday, but on the road. Fighting for their playoff lives, they fell to the sorry Knicks, 100-91 as five-point chalk. Don't let that final score fool you into thinking it was a close game either; the Bulls trailed by as many as 25 in the third quarter in a disastrous effort which saw them shoot 38.1% from the field and commit 15 turnovers. I was on the Knicks in that game and in my analysis I made it clear that the Bulls are an unworthy road favorite. I'm sticking to that story here. The team's record away from the Windy City is just 15-24 straight up. This will be just the 8th time all year that they have been favored on the road. Overall, they've been outscored this season, including by 2.6 points per game on the road. 

I'll concede that Philadelphia's current lineup resembles a M*A*S*H unit, but there's still a sense of pride involved with professional players and those left playing out the string will certainly want to atone for Tuesday's disastrous showing. "Today our performance was under any NBA level," said rookie forward Dario Saric, in reference to the Brooklyn loss. There is simply no way that the Bulls will end up shooting as well as the Nets did Tuesday night. Not only did Brooklyn score 81 (!) pts in the 1H, they were 12 of 17 on three-pointers and shot 64% overall for the game. Chicago has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league all season, ranking 28th in true shooting and dead last (30th) in effective field goal percentage. A very easy schedule may cause this subpar team to make the playoffs, but it won't come easy. 10* Philadelphia

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): To call this an "important game" from both the Hornets' and Heat's perspectives would be a mild understatement. Right now, both are on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Miami is in much better position though as they are just one-half game out of seventh place, which is currently shared by Indiana and Chicago. Charlotte is two games back and with only four more to play, a loss here would be crippling. Losing last night in Washington really hurt. Getting outscored 36-18 in the third quarter is what did them in. But I've maintained all year that this team is better than its record shows (they have outscored their opponents this season!) and I'm going to stick w/ them here.

If the Hornets ultimately do not make the playoffs, they can pin their fate on an awful 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less. They are also 0-6 SU in overtime games. That is quite the contrast from last season when they went 5-0 SU in OT and finished sixth in the East. I already mentioned that this year's squad has a positive point differential for the year and their net efficiency rating is also "in the black." Overall, I rate the Hornets as slightly better than the Heat, so I believe this line should be higher. Normally, when these teams meat here in Charlotte, the Under is automatic. It's cashed eight straight times and 23 of the L29 meetings. But here, beware of the fact the Hornets come in averaging 112.8 PPG their last five games and 106.6 PPG overall at home.

Miami is also off a loss. Actually, they've dropped B2B games as favorites, both at home. The losses came to the Knicks and Nuggets, the latter taking place on Sunday as they basically trailed the whole way. They were torched for 116 pts, including 37 in the first quarter. A real key to the recent stumbles has been the absence of Dion Waiters. He'll be out again tonight. Waiters was the reason the Heat beat the Hornets in the last meeting (24 pts), but in the first two meetings this year, the team shot just 35.7%. One final thing I should point out here is that Charlotte blew a double digit lead last night. Holding division opponents to just 97.6 PPG this year, I look for the home team to record a huge win tonight. 10* Charlotte

10* New York (8:05 ET): Chicago finds itself in currently in playoff position, despite being one game below .500. They've won four straight and are in seventh place. Right now, only five games seperate fifth from 11th place in the East. The Bulls have only a one game lead over ninth place Indiana. Meanwhile, the Knicks are already out of contention in what has been another lost year. They come into tonight having lost 10 of 13, including a 110-94 loss to Boston on Sunday. Yet they're a good value here, or rather the Bulls are a team I wouldn't want to be laying points with on the road. As bad as things might have been in the Big Apple this year, the Knicks do have a winning ATS record. Take the points.

Chicago's road record is only 15-23, so they are hardly an ideal candidate to be laying points in this situation. Over the course of the season, they've still been outscored, not only on the road, but overall as well. Like I said earlier, they have won four in a row though. Three of those victories came as dogs. The latest was in New Orleans Sunday, 117-110 as 8.5-pt dogs. That was a game where Jimmy Butler scored 39 points and the entire team shot well. But I look for a decline in offensive numbers moving forward. For the year, they average just over 102 PPG. Their last five games have seen them average 117 PPG.

The Knicks are 2-0 SU/ATS head to head w/ the Bulls this season, including a 15-pt win here in MSG back in January. They also won by double digits in Chicago early in the season. While the Bulls are projected for a decrease in offense, the Knicks are set to see an uptick given that they average 105 PPG at home, yet have failed to break 100 pts in five of the past six games. Carmelo Anthony did not play Sunday, but is set to return here. Who cares about the absence of Derrick Rose at this point? As bad as things have been for the Knicks this year, I would still rate this matchup as a pick em, so naturally taking the points is the way to go. 10* New York

10* Gonzaga (9:20 ET): It has all come down to this. Two #1 seeds, one stored program and the other not so much. Gonzaga let me and the rest of their backers down Saturday, beating South Carolina 77-73 as 6.5-pt dogs. (They had led by as many as 14 in the second half). But the 'Zags will "take it" as they won their first Final Four game ever. North Carolina also survived a close call, winning by just a single point over Oregon and thus not covering. To preserve the victory, they got two offensive rebounds after going 0 for 4 at the free throw line. It was a very lucky win as was the one over Kentucky in the Elite 8. That's two straight wins by two points or less for UNC. Teams favored by two points or less in the National Championship Game have lost four straight times. I'm on Gonzaga here.

Defensive efficiency is such a key metric to me. It's something I've been harping on throughout this tournament. It actually served as a great predictor of South Carolina's surprising run as they rank third nationally in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 1st. North Carolina isn't bad, but they're 16th. They held Oregon to just 37.9% shooting Saturday, which was impressive, not to mention needed as they only shot 36.8% themselves. Outside of Kennedy Meeks, no UNC player had a good offensive game. People will want to predict improvement for this matchup, but I'm not so sure. Gonzaga has held 11 of its last 12 opponents below 42%. Only three teams shot better than 40% during that span. I expect the most efficient defense to assert itself again here and triumph over the UNC offense. 

Despite the non-cover Saturday, Gonzaga is still 23-10 ATS this year. Tonight will mark the first time all season that they have not been favored. I would have them favored here. Yes, much of the focus here will be on UNC atoning for LY's Champ Game loss to Villanova. But this is Gonzaga's year. They have been the best team in the nation virtually the entire year. They will show that tonight and win the school's first ever Championship. Roy Williams and company will have to settle for being bridesmaids a second year in a row. 10* Gonzaga

8* Charlotte (3:05 ET): Here we have a classic case of a team that's better than its record taking on a team that is not as good as its record. Charlotte would be the former, OKC would be the latter. Here's the eye-opener. The Hornets are six games below .500 and the Thunder are 11 games over .500. Despite that discrepancy, however, they have identical YTD point differentials! That makes this line somewhat inflated, IMO. Charlotte was a nice win for me Friday night by downing Denver. Meanwhile, I won that same night going against OKC as they blew a huge lead at home against San Antonio. That one will sting. Take the points. 

The Hornets actually rank higher in offensive efficiency. I keep harping on this, but the Thunder have seen their offensive efficiency nosedive this year despite Russell Westbrook's individual exploits. They are 22nd in the league in assists. They clearly miss Kevin Durant. They were held below 100 pts (2nd time in 3 games) by the Spurs. Charlotte comes in averaging 113 PPG its last five games and has hit at least 105 in seven straight. 

I should point out that the Hornets have already beaten the Thunder once this year. It was 123-112, in Charlotte, back in January. Key for the Hornets was getting to the FT line 49 times. Two games out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, Charlotte can't afford to lose many games the rest of the way. Thus, taking points seems like a natural move here. I'd actually rank them as the better team here. Overall, they've won six of eight.  8* Charlotte

8* Sacramento (8:05 ET): This is the second of a back to back for the Kings, who lost last night 117-89 in New Orleans. Predictably, they've become undervalued here as a result. Truth be told, this team's season ended for all intents and purposes at the All-Star when they traded DeMarcus Cousins. They've won only five games since the Break, but interestingly the last time was when they were playing w/o rest. Granted that was at home, but the opponent was a good Memphis team. Tonight, they're in Minnesota, who is better than their record but probably should never be favored in this price range. Take the points. 

The T'wolves had lost six in a row (also 0-6 ATS) before beating Indiana (by one) and the Lakers. I've made the case many times before that this is a team whose record should be much closer to .500 (their point differential is near 0). However, this price range really doesn't fit them. Sure they did just cover as DD faves against the Lakers Thursday. Off a SU win, they are only 11-18 ATS this year. As a favorite, they are only 13-19 ATS. Off a double digit win, they are just 5-12 SU. Bottom line is that this is a team I simply would not favor by double digits in consecutive contests.

The Kings shot below 40% from the field last night, so they should probably improve in that department. I just can't see them getting blown out for a third straight game. This is a clear case of "buying low" on a team. They are 9-5 ATS after allowing 115 points in the last game. The offense almost HAS to improve after four straight sub-100 pt efforts. They've averaged just 92 PPG the L5 games, which is well above their season-long average of 102.1 PPG. If they can get to that season average, then they should be in good shape here. The T'wolve let opponents shoot above 47% from the field. They also give up nearly 106 PPG. Look for the road team to stay within a generous number. 8* Sacramento

10* Gonzaga (6:09 ET): Just to show how unlikely a run its has been for South Carolina getting to the Final Four (1st appearance in school history), note that they have been an underdog in all four games in this Tournament. Yes, they were even a slight dog as the higher seed vs. Marquette. Three times they have trailed going into halftime. Sunday, in the Elite 8 against Florida, they faced a seven-point deficit at the break, but were able to overcome that by holding the Gators to 0 for 14 from three-point range after half. Gonzaga also is making its first Final Four appearance in school history, but in their case the trip is long overdue. This has been one of the nation's most successful programs over the last 17 years. A top seed, the Bulldogs are now 23-9 ATS this season. They have been favored in every game. I'll lay the points here as South Carolina's unlikely run ends. 

Gonzaga had no problem w/ 11-seed Xavier in the Elite 8, winning that matchup 83-59 as 8.5-point chalk. I laid the points there as well. Something that continues to get overlooked is the fact that the Zags are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. They held Xavier to just 35.5% shooting. That was the 8th time in the L11 games where they held the opposition below 37% shooting. So, with all the talk likely to be about South Carolina's defense, note Gonzaga's is better. Northwestern is the only tournament opponent of Gonzaga's to score more than 60 points thus far. This is just the fourth team in the last 20 seasons to enter a Final Four w/ a scoring differential better than +20 PPG.

While South Carolina is #2 nationally in defensive efficiency, they are outside the top 100 offensively. For the sake of comparison, Gonzaga is 14th in offensive efficiency. It's been rather shocking to see South Carolina score 70 or more in every Tournament game so far, but here is where I expect their offense to begin to struggle. In the halfcourt, Gonzaga's defense is allowing only .69 points per possession, an astounding number. They've allowed more than 65 points just four times in the L22 games. The 'Zags depth should allow them to avoid "wearing down" in the second half, something we've seen from previous South Carolina opponents. Also, Gonzaga doesn't turn the ball over much and that's an area that the Gamecocks have really benefited by forcing 17 TO's per game. South Carolina also is - by far - the weakest of the four remaining teams from behind the arc. For the year, they are connecting on just 33.3% of their three-point attempts. Gonzaga holds its opponents below 30% while hitting 37.8% itself. I think this line is off here far more than it was for the Zags game against Xavier. 10* Gonzaga

8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): The Spurs figure to be in an ornery mood here after blowing a 22-pt lead and losing to Golden State their last time out. I was on the Warriors in that game, so that result was "A-ok" by me and now I can use it again to my advantage. The Spurs are 13-3 SU this year when off a SU loss and outscoring foes by 12.7 points per game in that situation. The opponent tonight is a somewhat overrated OKC side that again benefited from a virtuoso Russell Westbrook its last time out. Westbrook went 57-13-11 in a 114-106 win over Orlando that required overtime. Not only did it take OT to outlast the Magic though; the Thunder actually trailed by as many as 22 pts in the second half! I'll lay the short number with the road team here.

The come from behind effort Wednesday was the largest in team history for the Thunder. Again, trailing Orlando by 22 is not a "good luck." Though 12 games above .500, I can make a pretty compelling case that OKC is a pretty mediocre team. In terms of points scored vs. allowed per 100 possessions, they're basically dead even. They have been a good home team, but the defensive numbers (106.1 PPG allowed) still concern me. So too does the offensive efficiency. Aside from Westbrook's individual exploits, this has not been a great offensive team this year. They are just 16th in offensive efficiency.

San Antonio is 1st in defensive efficiency in the league and is the only team besides Utah to be giving up fewer than 100 PPG. In addition to the usual strong bounce back effort that we see from this group, they are 28-8 SU on the road. It's rare that they are favored by so little as well. Before losing to Golden State, they'd won five in a row, including the destruction of Cleveland on Monday. Underrated is a Spurs offensive which is top six in the league in efficiency. They are also 19-7 ATS This year vs. teams that average at least 106 PPG. Meanwhile, the Thunder are just 5-10 ATS their last 15 games vs. teams averaging that many points per game. 8* San Antonio

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Of the two teams in question here, Denver has the far better shot at reaching the playoffs. They are 1.5 games back of Portland, the current 8-seed out West. A crippling loss to the Blazers Tuesday really hurt, however, and was their second loss in a row. Meanwhile, Charlotte is seven games below .500 and three games back of the final playoff spot in the East. But their statistical profile is actually superior that of Denver. The Hornets are both outscoring teams over the course of the season as well on a per possession basis. They are off a much needed outright win in Toronto two nights ago and I believe will keep the momentum going here. Lay the short number. 

Overall, Charlotte is 5-2 SU and ATS their last seven games. Offensively, they appear to be peaking w/ a scoring average of more than 110 points over the L5 games. At home this year, they average 106.2 PPG. Therefore, they should take advantage of a defense which is among the very worst in the league. Denver is 29th. That's ahead of only the Lakers. If you look back at recent results, certainly one could make the case that Denver's defense is costing them big time. Over the L5 games, they've given up an average of over 118 PPG.

Denver isn't a particularly good road team. They're just 15-21 SU overall. Several players are listed as questionable for this game - Will Barton, Darrell Arthur and Mason Plumlee - and any of their absences would obviously hurt. Then there is the fact that Charlotte has already beaten Denver this year, 112-102 in Denver, earlier this month. That game saw prolific Hornets shooting from three-point range and given the Nuggets allow an ever higher percentage from behind the arc on the road, I can see that being the difference again. 10* Charlotte

analysis soon

10* Golden State (9:35 ET): The Warriors shouldn't have been underdogs last night (I played them and they won in Houston) nor should they be a dog tonight. Yes, I'm well aware that this is the second game of a back to back and the opponent is San Antonio. I have this game essentially as a Pick 'em, so naturally taking points is the way to go. The only time all season, previous to last night, that the Dubs were getting points came here in San Antonio on 3.11. But that was w/ them resting all their stars. Being that their record vs. the Spurs is 0-2 SU/ATS this season (lost by 29 to them at home on Opening NIght), I'd say this game will be treated w/ the utmost importance by the defending Western Conference Champs. After all, they only lead the Spurs by 1.5 games in the standings. Teams playing in the second game of a back to back are often undervalued and that's what we have going on here.

With last night's 113-106 win in Houston, the Warriors joined the Jordan-era Bulls as the only two teams in league history to win 200 regular season games over a three-year span. It goes w/o saying that's very impressive. I said it last night and I'll say it again here. This was the top team in the league each of the L2 years w/o Kevin Durant, so his absence doesn't bother me all that much. Last night, it was the Dubs' defense that shined, holding high-powered Houston to a season-low five three-pointers made. They led by as many as 22 in the second quarter and keep in mind Draymond Green didn't have a particularly good game. While last night was all about the defensive advantage over the Rockets (teams are 1-2 in offensive efficiency), tonight I'll tout the Warriors' offensive edge in a battle of the two most efficient defenses. While the respective defensive efficiencies are virtually dead even here, GSW is a clear 1st in the league on the offensive end. San Antonio is sixth. 

The Warriors are 11-4 SU this season when playing w/o rest, so the situation shouldn't bother them. As for San Antonio, they are off a dominant showing Monday vs. Cleveland and looking for a sixth straight win. I laid the points w/ Greg Popovich's team Monday, but that was the first time they won a game by double digits since beating the depleted Warriors roster three weeks ago. Keep in mind that Golden State has now won eight straight and six of those have been by double digits. Really impressive is that the Warriors are holding opponents to a "Spurs-like" average of 96.4 points the L5 games. Look for them to dictate the pace and cover the spread. 10* Golden State

10* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): I thought this number was too high even before the Bucks went into Charlotte and whipped the Hornets last night, 118-108 as four-point dogs. Therefore, I'm clearly going to back them here as this is an inflated number due to the fact they're in the second game of a back to back. Often times, NBA teams are undervalued in this spot (especially on the road) and that's precisely what we have going on here. Even through the "bad times," I've been pretty consistent in preaching that this Milwaukee team is better than its record shows. Sure enough, they've won 12 of 15 here in March. Meanwhile, Boston is now the top seed in the East (Cleveland fading!), so it's probably a good time to fade them. Take the points.

The Celtics have been pretty hot in their own right, winning four in a row and seven of their last eight. But backing up the notion that it's likely a good time to "sell high" on them is the fact they are 2-13 ATS this season when off three or more consecutive SU wins. Sure enough, they failed to cover Sunday vs. Miami, winning only 112-108 as six-point home chalk. I've got Milwaukee rated as a better team than Miami, so again, this line looks off to me. The last four games for Boston have all come here at home and they've hardly been winning by dominant margins. Their biggest win came against Phoenix and that was by only 10 pts. That happened to be the game where Devin Booker went for 70 by himself. Boston's defense is not as good as it's been in past years as they allow over 105 PPG. Also, this season has seen the team go just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS when playing w/ exactly two days rest.

Aside from the obvious top four in the Eastern Conference, I like this Milwaukee team the most. They shot 62.2% from the floor last night and dominated Charlotte. They had 72 points by halftime and led by 18 going into the fourth quarter. That's despite forcing only FOUR turnovers the entire game and getting outscored 15-2 in transition. I wouldn't be too afraid of any kind of letdown here given the Bucks are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win as a dog. In the only prior meeting this season, Milwaukee was the favorite, though at home and they lost. But given that Boston is only outscoring foes by two points more per 100 possessions than is Milwaukee, my view is that this line is simply too high. 10* Milwaukee

8* Under Thunder/Magic (7:05 ET): Recent Thunder games have not deviated much from the typical amount of scoring we see from them. They come into tonight averaging 107 points per game for the year and over the L5 games have averaged 108.8. At the same time, they're allowing a virtually identical number per game over the last five (106.1) as they do for the year (106.0). This is not the case for Orlando, however. The Magic are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but have averaged over 110 PPG their L5 contests. They're also giving up more PPG of late than per usual. Given neither team's offensive efficiency is that good and Orlando is bound to regress anyway, I'm on the Under here.

My main point w/ the Thunder this year has been despite the wonderful individual season put together by Russell Westbrook, the team's overall offensive efficiency has declined greatly. Last year, with Kevin Durant in the fold, they ranked 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. This year, they are down to a rather pedestrian 16th. Four of the team's past five games have stayed Under the total, including the last one where they barely escaped Dallas w/ a 92-91 win. On the road, the team's scoring average does dip several points down to 103.2 PPG. On the bright side, it was the third time in the last five games that they held their opponent below 42.5% shooting. Defensively, this team is tied for ninth in efficiency, which is a bit of a surprise. The Under is 21-11 in Thunder road games this season.

As for Orlando, we should expect a dramatic decrease in scoring rather soon. As I mentioned above, they come in averaging 110 points over the L5 games. For the season, they average just slightly over 100 and at home the number is actually slightly below triple digits. They are 29th in offensive efficiency and 28th in points per game. Don't expect many second chance points here as the Thunder are one of the top defensive rebounding teams in the league. One bit of good news though is that the Magic are also likely to start allowing fewer points per game moving forward. They were torched for 131 in a loss at Toronto Monday, but at home give up only 102.7 per game. In their last home game, they held Detroit to 87 points. Neither of these teams is very prolific from three-point range either (both under 33%). 8* Under Thunder/Magic

10* Under Wizards/Lakers (10:35 ET): The Lakers are an atrocious team doing a remarkable job of tanking right now. They've won only twice since the All-Star Break. Defensively, you won't find a worse team. They are 30th in efficiency and giving up an average of 116.2 PPG their L5 contests. Here, they are heavy underdogs to a Wizards team that is in the playoffs as one of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference. Over has typically been the way to go w/ this Washington team in March as it's cashed in 11 of their last 14 games. Last time out, they shot nearly 60% from the floor in a 127-115 win over Cleveland. As "tailor-made" a matchup as this might seem to be for them, I feel it's going to be lower scoring than expected. This is a really high number, so go w/ the Under.

Even though they're facing the Lakers, don't expect the Wiz to shoot as well as they did Saturday vs. Cleveland. That's just too hard to do. Also, on the road, we predictably see their shooting drop a bit anyway. The Lakers might be last in the league in field goal percentage allowed, but even so that % is "just" 48.2. That's a substantial drop from what the Wizards shot in their last game. There was also a big offensive effort against Brooklyn Friday, but in the three games prior to that, Washington failed to shoot better than 43% from the floor. This will be among the highest O/U lines for any of their games ll season.

Even for the Lakers, this is a high O/U line. While we've established that the defense is bad, so too is the offense. This blatant tank job has seen HC Luke Walton move to play his younger players and it was an ugly 81-point effort their last time out in Portland. That's a Blazers team that is not good defensively. They shot a pitiful 39.3% in that game. (On the bright side, they did hold Portland to just 40.4%!). Note that the 130 points scored in the win over Minnesota Friday night is a bit misleading as that included a 21-point effort in overtime. There have been only three times previous that the Lakers have scored 85 points or less. They went Under their next time out twice. Neither team's total PPG average comes close to exceeding the O/U line here. 10* Under Wizards/Lakers

8* Golden State (8:05 ET): It does appear as if some early sharp money showed up on the Rockets here. I can only assume that has something to do w/ the fact that the Warriors are playing in San Antonio tomorrow night. But I'm of the opinion that the Dubs should NOT be an underdog here. Really, they shouldn't ever be an underdog. After some early struggles w/o Kevin Durant, clearly this team has gotten things going. They've won seven games in a row, the last six all coming by double digit margins. I've stressed this before and I'll reiterate it again here: this was the top team in the league each of the L2 years w/o Durant and there's no reason to expect they can't be again. They were 5.5-pt favorites in January's visit to Houston (won 125-108) and I don't buy that Durant's absence should have that significant an impact on the pointspread. 

Over the L3 seasons, these teams have played 19 times. Golden State has won 16 of those games. It's actually not the 1st time they will have been a dog. On New Year's Eve 2015, they were 3.5-pt dogs here in Houston and won 114-110. Not only did they not have Durant in that last game, they were w/o Steph Curry as well. Certainly, the Rockets are improved this season. But while they're almost at the Warriors' level offensively (teams are 1-2 in efficiency), it's not even close at the other end of the floor. Always underrated is the fact that the Warriors consistently rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they're second, just slightly behind the Spurs. Houston is tied for 16th. Over the L5 games, the Rockets have given up an average of 117.8 points per game. Golden State has allowed an average of just 93.6.

The Warriors have only been a dog in one other game this year. It was 17 days ago when they rested all their key players in San Antonio. So this will be the first time all year you don't have to lay points w/ them and get Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all in the lineup. On the other side, Houston's James Harden injured his wrist in Sunday's win over OKC. He's listed as probable, but the problem is that the Rockets are far more dependent on Harden that the Warriors are on any one player. There is simply no way Houston matches its shooting from Sunday when it went 63.3% from the floor (2nd highest percentage by any team this season) including 20 of 39 from three-point range. For a point of reference, they were just 7 of 35 from behind the arc the last time they faced the Warriors. 8* Golden State

8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): Cleveland is in big trouble right now. Not just because they enter the day now tied w/ Boston for 1st place in the Eastern Conference (Celtics won yday). Their defense has just been awful of late and as a result their efficiency rating at that end of the floor has plummeted to 23rd, which would be the lowest of ANY playoff team except Denver, who will be mere first round fodder for Golden State. Forget about winning a potential rubber match with the Warriors in the NBA Finals, the defending NBA Champs may not even get out of the East! After another terrible defensive effort against the Wizards Saturday at home (lost 127-115), tonight brings a much tougher test as LeBron and company visit the Alamo to play the Spurs. Fade them.

San Antonio has no such issues defensively. In fact, they are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. That's a huge edge over the Cavs here as the offensive rating are somewhat similar (Cavs 3rd, Spurs 6th). While it's true the Spurs haven't won a game by double digits since beating the Warriors (who were resting everyone) two weeks ago, here they are finally not required to do so. This is probably one of the shorter spreads San Antonio will see at home all year, if not the shortest. Cleveland is just 2-9 SU as an underdog, 3-8 ATS. Sure, the majority of those games have come w/ LeBron resting, but the fact remains that this number is way too low. Cleveland has let four of its last five opponents shoot better than 50% from the floor and the Wizards finished at almost 60%! Look for the efficient Spurs to exploit that leaky defense.

Particularly concerning for the Cavs is that they trailed both Denver and Washington most of the way and the deficit was often double digits. San Antonio is at a whole different level compared to those two teams. They too are in a battle for the top spot in their conference as they currently trail Golden State by only two games. The Spurs already beat the Cavs this year, in Cleveland, despite not having either Tony Parker or Pau Gasol in the linup. Kawhi Leonard scored 41 pts and given the Cavs' defensive ineptitude, could be in line for another big effort tonight. Cleveland gives up 109.9 PPG on the road while San ANtonio allows only 97.7 at home. 8* San Antonio

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): If you're a regular follower of mine, much of the case I'm going to make for the Raptors here will be "old hat." But it bears repeating how undervalued this team has become in the wake of the Kyle Lowry injury. It is them, not Cleveland or Boston, that sports the Eastern Conference's top net efficiency rating and point differential. Those numbers have only continued to improve in the wake of a current five-game win streak, which has seen them prevail by double digits four times. I had them Saturday night in Dallas when they were badly mispriced (+1) and won 94-86. Tonight finds them laying the biggest number since the Lowry injury, but it's still not nearly enough against the lowly Magic, a team which rates as the third worst in the entire league. 

Orlando has actually won three of its previous four games, including a 115-87 decision at Detroit on Friday. But that only serves to keep the number down. The Magic's other two wins came against Phoenix and Philadelphia, both fellow bottom five teams. Shockingly, they did beat Toronto twice in a week back around the Super Bowl. One win came here "North of the Border" as 11-pt dogs. The other was as a 5.5-pt home dog. But tonight should be all about the Raptors' gaining revenge. It starts w/ the fact that Orlando is only 2-14 SU this season off a SU win as a dog. They are also 0-9 SU after scoring 115+ points the previous game. They shot 51.6% from the floor against the Pistons, something that is unlikely to be repeated given that they rank 29th in offenseive efficiency. In six of their previous eight games, they shot 43.7% or worse.

Defense has been a big reason for the Magic winning three of their last four games. Detroit shot just 35.4% on Friday while Philadelphia and Phoenix also both had bad shooting nights. The 76ers are the only team in the league w/ a lower offensive efficiency rating than Orlando and Detroit is the only team worse in true shooting percentage. Meanwhile, Toronto is a top five team in the league in offensive efficiency and averages 110.8 PPG at home. Even w/o Lowry, there are plenty of options here, most notably DeMar DeRozan. Defensively, the Raptors have held four opponents to 91 pts or less during the current win streak. This should be a blowout, which is why I'm laying the points! 10* Toronto

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Pre-DeMarcus Cousins, I could see this line being valid. But the Pelicans seem to have now integrated "Boogie" into the lineup and are a lot better team now, even though they did lose to Houston Friday. Previously, they'd won three straight and five of six. Tonight's game may very well be "for the season" as they are at eighth place Denver. With 10 games to play, they are five back of the Nuggets. A loss here and the Pelicans can probably kiss their playoff chances goodbye. I'll concede that Denver has been hot of late (6-2 SU L8 games, 7-1 ATS), but it's probably about time for them to cool off a bit. Defensively, they are not a good team at all and to me, that makes them unappealing in the role of favorite. Take the points. 

Yes, I'm well aware that Cousins is listed as questionable for tonight due to an ankle injury. But given the stakes, I'd be surprised if he didn't play. If he doesn't, I'm actually okay w/ that too. The team has won both games he's missed since coming over from Sacramento, by margins of 16 pts or greater. One of those wins came against the Rockets. With Cousins in the lineup, the Pelicans lost to the Rockets Friday, but note it was actually a one-point game going into the fourth quarter and they did a pretty good job defensively. This will be the first meeting w/ Denver since the season opener, a game the Pelicans lost by five despite 50 pts and 15 rebounds from Anthony Davis.

There's a chance Denver could be w/o its leading scorer, Danilo Gallinari, as well. So the absences could end up "cancelling each other out" here. I noted earlier that the Nuggets are not good defensively. To illustrate that point, they rank 29th in efficiency, which places them right between the Nets and Lakers. They are actually closer to last place than they are 28th! Their last three opponents have all shot at least 50% from the field. It's tough to keep winning when you're allowing that kind of shooting. With a big five-game road trip looming, I wouldn't be shocked if Denver gets caught "peeking ahead" and overlooks tonight's game a bit. That won't be the case for New Orleans, who again faces a must win. 8* New Orleans

10* Under Kentucky/North Carolina (5:05 ET): Lost in all the 5-star recruits and Coach Cal bluster is just how good of a defensive team Kentucky is. Ranked #7 nationally in defensive efficiency, they seen 9 of their previous 10 games stay Under the total. They carry the nation's longest win streak (14 games) into what is certainly the most anticipated Elite 8 matchup, a date with top seed North Carolina in Memphis. The Tar Heels aren't quite as stingy as UK, but can certainly "hold their own" as is evident by their own #20 ranking in defensive efficiency. Both teams average exactly 85.2 PPG for the year and played a very high scoring game in the regular season, a 103-100 win for Kentucky and, no, there was no overtime. Those factors have conspired to make this O/U line a lot higher than it ought to be. Take the Under.

That regular season matchup was played at a frenetic pace. It was 56-51 at halftime. I expect a the tempo to be a lot slower here. Malik Monk scored a UK freshman record 47 points in the regular season win and I don't expect him to come close to that here. Nor is De'Aaron Fox likely to match his 39-point effort from Friday's game against UCLA. The stakes are simply much higher now than they were in Lexington back in December. I don't envision we're going to see both teams shoot 53% from the floor and go a combined 19 of 35 from three-point range. The defensive intensity should be turned up a notch. UK did just hold UCLA to 75 points, which may not sound all that impressive, but the Bruins were the top scoring team in the country and that's 15 PPG below their season average.

North Carolina topped 90 points in its Sweet 16 win over Butler. They also topped 100 in their 1st round victory over 16 seed Texas Southern. But in between, I cashed an Under ticket when they faced Arkansas. Interestingly, of their three Tournament matchups so far, that one was projected to be the highest scoring and ended up being the lowest instead. The Tar Heels have enjoyed a tremendous edge on the board so far in this Tourney (rebounded 43% of its misses!), but that won't exist here. On the flip side, UK hasn't been turning the ball over at all its L3 games, so that should limit UNC opportunities in transition. The Tar Heels are 16-7 Under this season after scoring 80+ pts their previous game while Kentucky has gone Over in nine straight games vs. teams that average 77+ PPG. 10* Under Kentucky/North Carolina

10* Florida (2:20 ET): This line is several points lower than it ought to be and I'm taking full advantage. It always stinks not to be able to cash a winning ticket, but nevertheless I still came away impressed w/ Florida did Friday night. The Gators won what was the "game of the Tournament" thus far, beating Wisconsin 84-83 in overtime on a miraculous three-point shot at the buzzer. How ironic that Wisconsin sent the game to OT on a similar shot. Though it was not a cover for me (had UF -2), being able to win after such a dominant peformance the previous round is pretty impressive. I still put a ton of stock into the Gators' 65-39 dismantling of Virginia in the second round. Meanwhile, I do not believe South Carolina will be able to respond as well from its best Tourney performance to date, a 70-50 beatdown of Baylor in the Sweet 16. Lay the short number here. 

Defensive efficiency is so important this time of year and in that department there is no real edge in this matchup. South Carolina may have been considered a "long shot" to make the Tournament, but they rank 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency, one spot ahead of Florida. It was the 70-50 win over Baylor on Friday that moved them slightly ahead. In that game, the Gamecocks held their opponents to just 30% shooting for the game. That's after holding Duke to 38% in the second half in a stunning second round upset. But Florida is no slouch in this department as they held Virginia to 29.6% shooting. Wisconsin shot 50%, but again, that makes winning all the more impressive for the Gators. But the real key here is a massive gap on the offensive end. Florida ranks 25th in offensive efficiency while South Carolina is 115th, easily the worst among the Elite 8 (no one else lower than 27th).

These teams being SEC rivals, obviously we have regular seasons results to analyze. This will be a rubber match w/ each team having won on its home floor. The Gamecocks won 57-53 in Columbia due Florida going an unfathomable 0 for 17 from three-point range. In Gainesville, the Gators were 9 of 19 from behind the arc and won 81-66. The two games have seen South Carolina only shoot 37 of 107 from the floor (including 7 of 27 from three-point range). Often, I might call for those numbers to improve, but not here. Florida holds its opponents to just 30% shooting from three-point range for the year. The Gators are also 25-3 SU when favored this season, going 19-8-1 ATS. 10* Florida

8* Minnesota (10:05 ET): Though Portland is the one fighting for a playoff berth (and was a playoff team LY as well), I think most objective measures would consider the T'wolves to be the better overall team here. Thus, a spread this high is certainly not warranted, not even w/ Minny being in the second game of a back to back. Sure, last night was the latest in a long line of frustrating setbacks for the young T'wolves, not to mention possibly the most embarrassing one yet. They fell, in overtime, to the Lakers by a score of 130-119. It was a game they led by 15 in the third quarter. Blowing leads, many of them the double digit variety, has been far too common for Minnesota this year, but getting points tonight I feel comfortable giving them my endorsement. Take the points.

Even after five consecutive SU losses, a streak which has also seen them go 0-5 ATS, the T'wolves are basically dead even with their opponents in terms of scoring over the course of the year. This despite actually being 15 games below .500 entering tonight's game. Clearly, it's been a case of a young team being rather "unlucky" as there's plenty of talent on hand here. Andrew Wiggins scored 36 points last night and Karl Anthony Towns is a top 10 player in this league. They were up by eight last night w/ just over two minutes to go in regulation! When Zach Lavine and Nikola Pekovic return next season (both OFY) plus another lottery pick is in the fold, this will be a lock to make my "Most Improved" list. Teams are often undervalued in the second game of a B2B and sure enough the T'wolves are 7-4 ATS in that role this season. 

Portland was a pleasant surprise LY, surviving the loss of four starters from the previous season, one an All-Star in LaMarcus Aldridge. But after three consecutive playoff appearance (twice made the Conf Semis), this year finds them fighting for their postseason lives. Entering tonight, they still trail Denver by 1.5 games for the 8th and final spot in the West. They have been outscored by a larger margin that Minnesota has over the course of the year and the defense has generally been awful (24th in efficiency). Not to mention, this is one of the worst ATS teams in the league at 31-40 (ahead of only Orland). They did just beat the Knicks, who were in the second game of a B2B, Thursday. But Minnesota is a far more formidable opponent. The underdog has won outright in both prior meetings between these teams this season. 8* Minnesota

10* Oregon (8:49 ET): Kansas seems to be the "toast of the town," both literally and figuratively right now. Playing in Kansas City, they are heavy favorite to advance to the Final Four as the top seed in their region. They may want to consider applying for membership in the Big 10 after thrashing both Michigan State and Purdue in their last two games, winning by a combined 52 points. But their Elite 8 opponent, Oregon, just happened to beat the Big 10's hottest team (Michigan) themselves. The Ducks have been able to persevere despite losing big man Chris Boucher to a season-ending ACL injury before the Tournament. It's rare to find them getting this many points (in fact, this will easily be the most they've gotten in any game this season), so I'll leap at the opportunity. Take the points.

The Ducks have been an underdog in only three games all season, twice to UCLA and in an early season game at Baylor. That's a pair of Sweet 16 teams. Kansas is better than both, so it's not shocking to find the Jayhawks favored by more, but I still believe the line is inflated based off KU's last two results. Note that it was only a five-point game vs. Michigan State at the half and the margin stayed the same halfway through the second. Closing the game on a 30-15 run (including 21-6 over the final 7 minutes) certainly skewed perception. Then against Purdue, Bill Self's team trailed most of the first half. Again though, it was a dominant second half performance. I simply refuse to believe the Jayhawks can continue shooting at the current rate (47% on 3's, 60% on 2's!) and I've got to again point out the team has a fortunate 12-3 SU record in games decided by single digits.

Oregon has shot the ball quite well themselves in this Tournament and has an offense capable of matching Kansas. The Ducks turned the ball over just FIVE times against Michigan. Given the Jayhawks have been making a "killing" in transition, if Oregon can take care of the basketball again, they should be in good shape. They are after all 11-3 ATS this season vs. teams averaging 77 points or more. And remember they were favored in the bulk of those contests. Defensively, these teams are basically even w/ Kansas 23rd in efficiency and Oregon 24th. The Ducks actually own the better scoring differential, however, at +13.5 compared to "just" +12.1 for KU. All things considered, I would have this spread several points lower and it's probably a good time to fade Kansas coming off a "peak" performance. 10* Oregon

10* Toronto (8:35 ET): I've been pretty clear of late that I feel the Raptors have become severely undervalued in the wake of the Kyle Lowry injury. The numbers continue to back me up. Not only do they have the best net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference, but their YTD point differential has now surpassed Cleveland. Thursday's 101-84 rout of Miami (on the road!) was really impressive, especially when you consider the Heat were 24-5 ATS their previous 29 games. Considering all that you've just read, I'd hope you'd join me in wondering how in the world Toronto would be a underdog, even so slight, to a team like Dallas. The Mavs did beat the Clippers here at home Thursday night, but had dropped four of six previous to that. I'm on the road team here. 

Thursday's win in Miami made it four straight for the Raptors. Three of those wins have been by double digits w/ the only exception coming against Chicago, who (for whatever reason) always seems to give them trouble. Another recent lopsided win for them came at the expense of tonight' opponent. North of the Border, they crushed Dallas 100-78 on 3.13, doing so as 4.5-pt home chalk. Shockingly, there has been to little to no adjustment by the oddsmakers for the rematch. Granted, they have to be careful about putting too much stock into just one result, but it's pretty clear to me who the better team is here. Note after initially falling behind the Heat by as many as 14 in the fourth quarter, the Raptors outscored them 31 the rest of the way. Given what Miami has done lately, that's pretty eye-opening. In three of the past four games, the Raptors have held their opponent to 91 pts or less. The game vs. Chicago went to overtime remember. 

There's a pretty massive discrepancy at the offensive end of the floor between these two teams. Toronto is 5th in the league in offensive efficiency and averages 107.1 points per game. Dallas is just 22nd in efficiency and is the ONLY team in the league that does not average 100 PPG. It was just eight days ago that the Mavericks lost by 42 in Philadelphia. I faded them earlier in the week as they lost by 25 here at home to Golden State. Though it seemingly worked against the Clippers two nights ago, Mavs HC Rick Carlisle is going with a younger and more unproven starting lineup right now. That's going to result in some inconsistency. The Raptors are the better team and have far more to play for here. 10* Toronto

8* Gonzaga (6:05 ET): Xavier has clearly represented a "buy low" situation thus far in the Tournament as they've won all three of their games as an underdog (I was on them all three times!). Most forget that the Musketeers were actually considered a Top 10 in the country early in the season. Injuries, the most notable being the season-ender for Edmond Sumner (knee) threatened to derail the campaign though. A six-game losing skid last month had their NCAA Tourney hopes on "life-support," but Chris Mack's team then responded by winning six of seven while going a perfect 7-0 ATS at the betting window. However, here is where the Cinderella story ends and I jump off the bandwagon. Top seed Gonzaga has survived some close calls thus far, but I believe is primed for their best showing of the Tournament tonight. Lay the points. 

I keep stressing teams' defensive efficiency for a reason. It is typically a great predictor of future success. Even an Elite 8 "longshot" like South Carolina ranks 3rd nationally at that end of the floor. Xavier, however, is 67th. That's easily the lowest ranking of the remaining eight teams. In fact, no one else is lower than 24th! Gonzaga is 1st, which is something that I bet most don't know. They just held West Virginia to an ugly 26.7% shooting for the game in the Sweet 16. That's really impressive even by the Zags' lofty standard. Incredibly, only one of their previous nine opponents has shot better than 41.5% from the floor (BYU, who handed them their one loss). Seven times during that stretch, Mark Few's team has held the opponent below 37% shooting. In the Tournament, they've held teams to 37% shooting on two-point attempts. This is really impressive!

Xavier comes in having shot at least 50% from the floor in all three Tournament games, so clearly something will have to give here. I'm banking on it being the Musketeers' offense obviously. A key reason that I've played Xavier in all three games thus far is that I've felt all of their opponents were overrated in terms of seed. That ceases to be the case here. Another huge key has been Xavier's Tourney opponents shooting only 24% from three-point range despite a rather high volume of attempts. That seems unsustainable. Gonzaga has shot just 29% themselves from behind the arc, but don't let that fool you into thinking this is a great matchup for the underdog. Rather, I believe we'll see some regression to the mean on both sides of that equation. Look for the Zags to make their shots and advance to the school's first ever Final Four in convincing fashion. 8* Gonzaga

8* Florida (9:55 ET): The East region has been thrown into total upheaval with the early exits of the top two seeds, Villanova and Duke. Furthermore, Virginia was considered the "darkhorse" third option and they're gone too. To me, that leaves the team that eliminated the Hoos, Florida, as the new favorite. While all the talk will be about what Wisconsin did to 'Nova, Florida's massive beatdown of Virginia may have been the most impressive win of the entire Tournament to date. They absolutely bludgeoned UVA, 65-39, which I assure you is not a misprint. Yet, they're only a small fave for this Sweet 16 matchup and don't seem to be getting the majority of public support. I don't understand that all and will gladly lay the short number here.

Wisconsin was probably underseeded, something that was quite unfortunate if you're Villanova. The Badgers did have a late season three-game skid including an outright loss in Madison (as 11.5-pt faves) to Iowa. But since the regular season finale, they've turned things around. Their only loss in the L6 games was in the Big 10 Tournament Final to Michigan. The final margin over Va Tech in Rd 1 may have been 10 pts, but that was their largest lead of what was a basically a two possession game the whole way. The Badgers also benefited there from a school record eight three-pointers by Bronson Koenig. Then came the upset of 'Nova. Yes, the Badgers led for a large percentage of that game, but they were also down 57-50 w/ just over five minutes remaining. They very likely will not be as fortunate to shoot as well here as they did vs. Nova (53.1%!) considering the Gators rank third nationally in defensive efficiency. I know Wisconsin "has experience," but they still turned the ball over too much and got into foul trouble the last game.

There are a number of Sweet 16 teams that have been able to overcome key injuries. Count Florida among the list. They lost big man John Egbunu to a season-ending knee injury back in February. They proceeded to go just 3-3 SU their next six games, twice losing to Vanderbilt, but have had little problem in the first two rounds of this Tournament. I had them against East Tennessee State, which was a 15-point win. Then came the brutal beatdown of Virginia. The "impressiveness" of that victory cannot be understated. They held the Hoos below 30% shooting for the game, including 1 of 15 from three-point range. Will they be able to duplicate those numbers here? Unlikely. But if they even come remotely close, they'll advance w/ ease. Remember that Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Speedy guards Kasey Hill and Chris Chiozza broke down the vaunted Tony Bennett "Pack Line defense" like it was nothing. Even w/o Egbunu, the Gators have four players that can lead the team in scoring and both Devin Robinson and Justin Leon had double doubles (21 total rebounds) against UVA. 8* Florida

10* Kentucky (9:35 ET): Though I didn't expect it to be by much, I have to say that I'm pretty shocked Kentucky isn't favored here. They are after all - Kentucky - and the higher seed. If the line holds, or even goes up for some reason, then it will be just the second time this season that the Wildcats close as the dog. The first was admittedly not a pleasant experience as they lost at Florida by 22. But the Gators may very well end up being a Final Four team. UCLA is a group that I tabbed as overrated long ago. Sure, the Bruins proved me wrong by covering against Cincinnati, but they actually trailed at the half in that game. Their struggle to put away Kent State in the first round also should be a red flag. Simply put, the Bruins 77th place ranking in defensive efficiency (lowest among 16 remaining teams) is bound to eventually catch up with them and I think Friday is the time and place. 

As was expected, UK got a scare in Round 2 from a severely underseeded Wichita State team. I took the points w/ the Shockers (and covered!), but that play wasn't due to a lack of respect for what Coach Cal's team is capable of doing. Rather, I respected WSU that much. UK might be the youngest team left in the field, but they now also boast the longest active win streak in the country at 13 games. They've been able to advance despite their best player Malik Monk not shooting all that well. Imagine if he turns it around. Unlike the matchup vs. Wichita State, UK has a significant edge on the defensive end here as they rank 8th in efficiency. This is also a revenge spot for a five-point loss in Lexington back in December. That day, UCLA was able to score 97 points (shot 53.0%) in an outright upset as 10.5-pt dogs. I do not see history repeating itself here and it sure seems as if there's been a massive overadjustment w/ the line. Kentucky has not lost a neutral site game all year (9-0 SU).

As mentioned above, UCLA trailed Cincinnati at the break on Sunday night. It may not have been a significant deficit, but they certainly struggled against an athletic and long defense. Kentucky is both longer and more athletic than Cincinnati. Thus, I believe we're more likely to see something resembling the Bruins team we saw in the 1st Half vs. Cincy than the 2nd (when they scored 49). On the defensive end, there has been much discussion about an alleged "improvement" down the stretch by UCLA. I just don't see it. They gave up 80 pts to Kent State. Unlike the Bruins first two Tournament opponents, Kentucky has an offense capable of "keeping up." (they average 85.2 PPG). Look for the 2-seed to advance in this one. 10* Kentucky

full analysis soon

10* Phoenix (7:35 ET): Boston is now just one-game back of seemingly slumping Cleveland and all the talk obviously now centers around whether or not they can pass the defending champs for the top spot in the East. I actually think Toronto is a better overall team than Boston, for the record. But with the weight of expectations comes larger pointspreads and here we find the Celtics as big a favorite as they've been in any game all season. In fact, this will be just the third time they've been asked to lay double digits this season. They are 0-2 ATS previously with non-covers against Brooklyn (season opener!) and Philadelphia (January 6th). I understand that bettors will hardly be flocking to the window to bet Phoenix here, but let's take advantage of that fact and grab what looks to be a severely inflated number. 

Last night saw the Suns suffer the indignity of getting crushed by Brooklyn. They were actually five-point underdogs (against the Nets!) in the embarrassing 128-96 defeat. Clearly, this marked a low-point in another lost season. Incredibly, the starting lineup that was trotted out last night was not only the youngest in NBA history (avg 21 yrs, 14 days), but the average age of the starters was actually younger than seven of the eight teams that played last night in the NCAA Tournament! Given we know the veterans on this team aren't very good, this is probably a good idea over the long-term. In the short-term, the results haven't been good. Phoenix is 0-6 SU and ATS its last six games with the last three all coming by double digits on the road.

As bleak a picture as I may have just painted, it wasn't that long ago that the Suns had gone 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS over a six-game stretch. Sunday in Detroit saw them actually lead by double digits before completely falling apart down the stretch and losing by 15. This will be the third straight game getting double digits. However, even by their standard, it's a huge number. The only times they've gotten 16 or more from the oddsmakers this year came against the Rockets and Warriors. Boston might be a good team, but they're a notch or two below those teams. I can't possibly make a case for the Suns to win outright here, but I'll call for the overconfident Celtics to overlook this game and fail to cover the spread. 10* Phoenix

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Cleveland is in trouble and LeBron James seems to know it. The defending World Champs have just been awful defensively this season as is evident by their 22nd place ranking in defensive efficiency. That would be the lowest ranking of any likely playoff team w/ the exception of Denver, who is a sub .500 team that is just hoping to be the 8-seed in the West. For the sake of comparison, last year's Cavs team ranked a respectable 10th in defensive efficiency. Speaking of the Nuggets, they just torched LeBron and company for 126 points Wednesday night. That dropped the team to 0-3 ATS on the current road trip. I know that James has essentially "owned" Charlotte throughout his brilliant career, but going West to East does Cleveland no favors here and the Hornets are a far better team than their WL record indicates. Take the points.

Charlotte enters Friday 2.5 games back of Miami for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Maybe they won't make the playoffs, but I'm already tabbing them as an excellent bounce back candidate for next season. Consider that despite being seven games below .500 currently, they've actually outscored their opponents and posted a positive net efficiency rating. If nothing else, they've been terribly unlucky w/ an 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less and 0-6 SU record in overtime! That's in stark contrast to last season when they were 5-0 SU in OT games. However, we're starting to see signs of potential late season turnaround as they come into tonight riding a three-game SU and ATS win streak. They have a winning record at home this year. 

The narrative here will be James' comments after the Denver loss as he called his teammates out. He should have as the Cavs were just horrific defensively, allowing 73 first half points and 70 points in the paint overall. They forced only six turnovers against 35 Denver assists. Every opponent on this trip has shot at least 50% from the floor against them. They are giving up 110.1 PPG on the road where they've been outscored for the year. Charlotte comes in averaging a healthy number (105.6 PPG at home). I realize that the Hornets are just 1-9 SU vs. Cleveland since James "came home" (0-3 SU this year) and 2-19 SU as dogs overall this season. But I rate this as a pick em game and Charlotte has proven itself to be a totally different team w/ Cody Zeller in the lineup. 8* Charlotte