10* Charlotte (5:35 ET):  Similar to the Toronto-Indiana series, this is one where I feel that the lower seed is being undervalued and in this instance, dramatically so.  Miami may have finished third in the East, which is in line w/ where they are in terms of the oddsmakers' pecking order, but they actually ranked sixth in both point differential (+1.6) and efficiency (+2.6) in the East during the regular season. That's behind a very underrated Hornets squad (+2.7, +3.3) that also happened to post the best record in the East after the All-Star Break (21-8 straight up). Thus, anything above the token three points for home court advantage is a value on Charlotte, who I give a very good shot at not only pulling the outright upset here, but in the series as well.  Take the points in Game 1.

Checking in on the personnel department, the Heat will be w/o Chris Bosh for the rest of the season, no matter how long that lasts. I realize that a number of other players - notably Joe Johnson and Hassan Whiteside - stepped up down the stretch, but not having Bosh is still a big deal. Coach Spo has been relying on a pair of rookies - Justise Winslow & Josh Richardson - to play 20+ minutes off the bench. Relying on rookies in the playoffs is not a winning formula. Meanwhile, I realize that Charlotte is fairly inexperienced themselves (franchise has never even won ONE playoff game in its history), but they received some good news on Friday when it became apparent that Nic Batum (team's best two-way player) would be able to play normal minutes after missing three of the final six regular season games.

Looking back to the four regular season matchups between these two, it was a 2-2 split w/ each team winning once on the other's floor. The most recent meeting saw Charlotte come here and prevail 109-106 w/ an identical spread. What's impressive about that win is that Miami shot 53.3 percent from the floor and had a 15-pt lead in the first half. I don't see that happening again. To come full circle, I'll reference Toronto-Indiana again and point out that like that series w/ Paul George, this one sees the underdog team having the best player on the floor (Kemba Walker). 10* Charlotte

10* Under Hornets/Heat (5:35 ET):  Each of the last eight times that Charlotte has paid a visit to South Beach, the Over has cashed. I'll call for that streak to come to an end in Game 1 of this best of seven series, however, as those were all regular season matchups and the playoffs are an entirely different animal.  It is interesting that the total for Sunday's game is lower than what it was in the final regular season matchup (109-106 Hornets win here in Miami), but it was also bet down early and I'm going to follow the money.  The Heat were one of the top Under teams during the regular season (47-34-1 in all games) and as underrated as they may be, I don't see the Hornets continuing to average 110.6 PPG  as they did over their final five regular season games (Over was 5-0).  Take the Under in Gm 1.

Four of those last five games for Charlotte saw them top 110 points.  But three came against non-playoff foes (Knicks, Nets, Magic) that were not interested in playing much defense.  The Heat will be as they gave up only 98.4 points per game during the regular season (5th in the league) and that number dips even a little lower here at home.  Meanwhile, it should be no surprise to find that Charlotte's scoring average dips on the road as they score about four fewer points per game compared to at home.  The Hornets aren't a great shooting team by an means (43.2 FG% on the road) and will absolutely have to work for whatever they can get offensively in this game and series.  For the record, prior to the final two games of the reg season, the Under had been 7-1 this year for Charlotte when they were coming off three consecutive Overs. They also failed to break 100 pts in three of the four regular season meetings with Miami.

I expect Miami to struggle offensively in this game and potentially series as well. Yes, there was a major transformation at that end of the court once the team acquired Joe Johnson at the trade deadline.  But they still ended up averaging only 100 PPG (on the nose) and ended up being one of just four teams (Knicks, Spurs, Jazz) in the entire league whose games averaged fewer than 200 points.  Charlotte is very underrated defensively as HC Steve Clifford has always gotten his team to play hard at that end of the floor.  I expect no different here.  10* Under Hornets/Heat

8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The first round in the Western Conference seems like a colossal waste of time as each of the top four seeds are very likely to advance with little difficulty. However, that doesn't mean that the underdogs in these respective series won't provide some value and that's the case here w/ Dallas in Game 1 at Oklahoma City.  The Thunder posted the worst ATS record of any playoff team during the regular season - second worst overall (ahead of only Chicago) - at 35-44-3.  That includes a 31-38 mark when favored.  OKC did take all four regular season matchups from the Mavs, but two of those were decided by just three points. I just don't agree with this being a double digit spread. Take the points.

Rick Carlisle is an underrated piece of this series.  You have to give the Dallas HC a big edge over his counterpart, OKC's Billy Donovan, who has never coached an NBA playoff game before. Two years ago, Carlisle was able to get his team to take a much more talented San Antonio squad (that won the NBA Finals) to seven games in the first round.  Carlisle definitely earned his paycheck down the stretch as he got his injury-riddled team to start playing defense and sure enough the Mavs come into the playoffs having held nine straight opponents under 100 points.  I expect them to continue to slow the pace down in this series, thereby limiting the total number of possessions, as any smart underdog should.

Dallas is 5-2 ATS here in April and both losses came by single digits to two of the top four teams in the West, the Clippers and Spurs.  So they definitely seem to be in "good form" here.  They've also won four of their last five road games.  It is quite rare to find this team taking this many points.  Since the start of March, they've been double digit dogs just once and they covered (at Golden State) easily at +16.5 (lost by only eight). A lot of the Thunder's recent double digit spreads were a byproduct of teams resting players, but it bears mentioning that last month saw them fail to cover at Philadelphia (-15.5) and they also lost outright here at home vs. Minnesota (-12).  There is no way Dallas should be in the same price range as Minnesota. 8* Dallas

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET):  I feel that the Hawks are being underrated heading into this best of seven series vs. the Celtics. They finished the regular season #2 in efficiency in the Eastern Conference (trailing only Cleveland) on the back of a defense that allows only 98.8 points per 100 possessions. Only one other team in the league allowed fewer than one point per possession and that was San Antonio.  Also of consequence here is that Boston is getting a sizable amount of the action (% of tickets written) despite being the road team. I realize that we all think of them as a gritty, underdog type team, but they're actually only 10-14 ATS this season when taking points. Under Brad Stevens, they've actually been mediocre - at best - when it comes to the betting window and NOT being in the second game of a back to back. I'm laying the points here.  

During Stevens' three-year tenure in Boston, no team has been better against the spread when playing w/o rest. But, curiously, the Celtics have struggled when playing w/ ample rest, including a 3-9 ATS mark this season when having exactly two days off between games.  Not having home court advantage in the first round is huge for Boston, who has a losing road record. That's actually owed to Atlanta losing on the final day of the regular season. Additionally, Jae Crowder, who is arguably the Celtics' best two-way player, is currently dealing w/ a high ankle sprain. Boston might be the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference (105.7 PPG), but their offensive threat - Isaiah Thomas - is only 5'9" and an unlikely candidate to lead his team to any kind of real playoff success.

The Hawks beat the Celtics in three of the four regular season matchups, recording double digit victories in both home games.  Getting back to defense, Atlanta was able to hold Boston under 45% shooting in all four games this year. Offensively, three-point sharpshooter Kyle Korver finally seemed to regain his lost touch down the stretch by connecting on almost 45% of his attempts from behind the arc over the last 22 games.  Remember that Boston trailed by 24 - at home - in its regular season finale against Miami. 10* Atlanta

8* Indiana (12:30 ET):  Toronto seems to be getting a lot of "love" coming into the playoffs. The second seed in the East, many are perceiving this to be the year that the Raptors finally break through to the second round and possibly beyond. But let's pump the brakes a bit, shall we? Remember, this is a franchise that has all of ONE playoff win in its history and it came all the way back in 2001 (a 5-game series). I think that they got a much tougher draw than most people realize with Indiana as the difference between the #2 and #7 seeds in this conference isn't all that great. Toronto has covered 10 of the last 11 matchups, including five straight here North of the Border (also 5-0 straight up), but of the four times the teams played this year, it was actually the Pacers' one win that was the largest margin of victory.  Take the points.

A clear case can be made that the Pacers should have finished the regular season w/ a better record than just 45-37 straight up.  They were 0-7 SU in games that went to overtime, one of those losses occurring at home to Toronto.  They performed well in conference games, going 30-22 SU and 32-20 ATS, and when working on two days' rest they are 10-3 at the betting window.  The line moving just a tad in Toronto's direction seems to work in Indiana's favor as +6.5 to +9 seems to be their "sweet spot" as they're a perfect 4-0 ATS as a dog in that range, on the road.  This is a team that ended the regular season on a three-game SU/ATS win streak and they are 7-2 ATS off a SU dog win. What serves them well is a #3 ranking in defensive efficiency (Toronto is 11th).

Not only have the Raptors failed to advance in the playoffs, they have struggled to cover games w/ a 2-8 ATS mark the last two years.  They have NEVER won a Game 1 in any series, ever. Similar to last year, their best player (Kyle Lowry) is going through a shooting slump at the worst possible time as the point guard is just 32.1 percent from the floor since 3.20.  DeMarre Carroll, acquired to be the team's defensive stopper, is not 100 percent either. Toronto often struggles to defend the three-point line (29th in the league!). It is Indiana that may very well have the best player in this series (Paul George) and don't be surprised if they pull off a Game 1 upset.  8* Indiana

8* Golden State (10:35 ET): Predictably, the asking price is high on the Warriors as they go for their historic 73rd win of this regular season. They had plenty of trouble w/ the Grizzlies Saturday night, but that was in Memphis. The 100-99 victory saw them have to rally back from a 10-pt fourth quarter deficit, but the odds of them falling into any kind of similar hole in Oakland, on this night, is simply unlikely.  The Grizzlies, who will limp into the playoffs as a very banged-up team w/ almost no chance of advancing (regardless of who the opponent is), are talking a big game but the reality is they have no chance of preventing history from being made tonight.  Lay the points. 

I've written about this before, but it bears repeating. In terms of expected vs. actual wins (which is based on a team's point differential), the Grizzlies are the biggest overachiever in all of the league. They've been outscored - on average - by two points per game.  That doesn't sound like much, but over the course of a season that works out to a 162 point difference compared to their opponents. Based on their YTD point differential, you'd expect their record to be 34-47 (it's 42-39). They have suffered multiple blowout losses (eight by 20 or more points) and the latest came last night in LA as the Clippers drubbed them 110-84. Another came in their only other prior visit to Oracle Arena this season, all the way back in November. The final score there was 119-69, easily the Grizzlies worst loss of the year.

I'll come out and say it: Golden State surprised me Sunday night in San Antonio. They won 92-86, dealing the Spurs their first home loss all season. That's yet another big accomplishment in a season full of them for this team. The biggest would obviously be winning tonight and I'm actually not worried at all about the huge spread as this game is basically priced as if Memphis was at full strength, which they most certainly are not.  We already know that both Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are lost for the year and the team's best defender, Tony Allen, is likely to sit out again due to a hamstring issue. The Warriors missed 26 of 36 three-point attempts Saturday in Memphis and that percentage is likely to go way up tonight. 8* Golden State

10* Chicago (8:05 ET):  Many times, a road team playing in the second game of a back to back offers some value, but I can't see 10-71 Philadelphia offering up much resistance tonight in the final game of the year.  Last night saw the Sixers get crushed, 122-98 (were +12) in Toronto and there's really no reason why it shouldn't be a similar story tonight in the Windy City. Granted, the Bulls aren't going to the playoffs but they can draw motivation from this being an excellent opportunity to give their fans a nice ending to what has been otherwise a very disappointing (and injury-filled) campaign.  The oddsmakers are expecting a blowout here and so am I.  Lay the points.

This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams. Chicago has won the previous three, which isn't surprising, nor is the fact that two have been blowouts. All the way back in November, as 10.5-pt chalk, they won 111-88 in Philadelphia. In December, they won 115-96 as 13.5-pt home favorites. It was a closer game (went to overtime) in January (at Philly), but the fact the Bulls were 8.5-pt favorites in that 115-111 win actually demonstrates that there's some value here. Adjusting for home court advantage, you'd expect Chicago to be about a 14.5-pt fave in this spot.  Again, they were -13.5 the last time they hosted the Sixers - and covered w/ room to spare.  In that January meeting where the Bulls failed to cover, Philly made 12 three-pointers and that isn't likely to happen again here.

The numbers are as ugly as you'd expect from the Sixers this season and if you take out the four games in which they were favored (all at home, obviously), they become even uglier. The team has been outscored by a double digit margin in virtually all situations this year, so don't be afraid of this number.  They are 0-6 in the second of B2B road games, losing by an average margin of 14.8 points.   Now, you might question what will inspire Chicago to win big here. In addition to playing in front of the home crowd, they have a chance to finish the season w/ a winning record.  Fred Hoiberg's team shot 57.1 percent and scored 121 pts in a win at New Orleans on Monday and while it will be tough to match either number here, they won't have to against what is the league's worst offensive club. 10* Chicago

8* San Antonio (8:05 ET):  Prior to last week, the Spurs had gone all season w/o dropping B2B games, a remarkable achievement (one that Golden State has actually pulled off). They also hadn't lost at home until Sunday's 92-86 setback at the hands of the Warriors. There's really nothing to play for tonight vs. Oklahoma City as both teams are locked into a seed (Spurs 2nd, Thunder 3rd) in the top-heavy West, but I still believe the team sporting the best point differential and efficiency rating in the league is a solid value at home tonight as they look to end a season-worst slide (three in row straight up, six-game ATS losing streak). It's pretty likely that OKC will rest both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (this is their reg season finale) and w/o those two, the Thunder really don't have much to offer. Lay the points.

Both Durant and Westbrook played last night as the team rolled to an easy (as expected) 112-79 win over the lousy Lakers. Durant has sat out the last two times the Thunder have been in the second game of a back to back while Westbrook joined him in the last one, a 120-115 loss in Portland. Overall, OKC has dropped five of its last six when unrested and last night's defensive performance actually does not bode well for them here as they are 0-4 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less the previous game.  As an underdog, they are 1-9 SU and 3-6 ATS this year. By one-half point (were +8.5), they covered here in San Antonio last month, but that came with both superstars in the lineup.  Considering neither is likely to play here, why have the oddsmakers made no real adjustment. 

Of course, it could be because the Spurs may not play everyone either.  HC Greg Popovich sat arguably his five best players on March 26th at Oklahoma City and the result there was a 111-92 loss. I want to be clear that this play stands regardless of what Popovich or Billy Donovan decides to do as the Spurs are still looking to tie the single season record for most home wins in a regular season (41) and they have outscored visiting teams here by 14.2 points per game. Winning tonight and resting tomorrow is probably Popovich's goal and the Spurs should do that rather easily here. 8* San Antonio

10* Miami (7:35 ET): Thanks to Charlotte beating Boston last night, the Heat find themselves in the driver's seat for having home court advantage in a first round playoff series. They are on the road for the final two games, here in Detroit and then tomorrow in Boston, but if they win both then they will finish no worse than fourth in the Eastern Conference.  Of course, that's "easier said than done" especially considering the Pistons happen to own the best home ATS record in the league (24-14) after a blowout win over Washington all the way back on Friday. But don't be surprised if the home team comes out flat and my power rankings disagree with the notion of Detroit even being favored in this matchup. 

I'm happy for the Pistons, and especially HC Stan Van Gundy (who has gotten a "raw deal" at almost every previous stop), that they'll be back in the playoffs this year following a six-year absence. But this team often struggles to shoot the basketball (29th in "true shooting percentage") and that could really come back to bite them against a team like the Heat.  It certainly did exactly one week ago, in Miami, as SVG's team made only 40% of its field goal attempts, including 5 of 21 from three-point range, in a 107-89 loss. Given the final score there, I think the oddsmakers have made a mistake by not making any real adjustments in the line here, save for the obvious one that comes w/ the change in home court advantage. It's not that often that the Heat are an underdog, so tonight is a good time to take advantage.

The Pistons have averaged 110 PPG over their last two contests, but I don't see them getting anywhere near that here as the Heat are allowing just 98.5 points per game and rank 7th in defensive efficiency.  In fact, Miami is the more efficient team on both ends of the court. Scoring has been way up for them ever since acquiring Joe Johnson as they've topped 100 pts in 19 of their last 21 games.  The only two times they failed to reach triple digits came in the second game of a back to back, at San Antonio and at Portland.  It's interesting to note how the line is dropping here even though Detroit is just a short home favorite. 10* Miami

10* Houston (8:05 ET):  I was happy to see the Rockets pull away late against the Lakers as I decided to lay a big number with them Sunday afternoon and it ended up being a much needed 130-110 victory. I figured they'd be able to score at will against the worst defense in the league and this is another spot where that should be the case. It can't be understated how much Houston needs this game as they still trail 8th place Utah (who also won Sunday) by one game w/ two to play. With only a visit from Sacramento to come after this, the Rockets will be favored to win out and that's something they probably have to do. So lay the points here.  (Utah does host Dallas tonight and Houston has the tiebreaker against both teams). 

Minnesota, it should be pointed out, has won its last three games (all on the road) and two of those were against Golden State and Portland. But, nevertheless, bad teams off a SU win tend to be strictly fade material this time of year. The last (and only) time we saw the T'wolves on a three-game win streak this season was back in November and they went on to lose the next time out. Now they did cover, but that's because they were taking a big number on the road against the Clippers. Here it's a small number at home and it should be pointed out that Minny has gone only 13-25-1 ATS on its own court this season, which is the worst home ATS record in the league by a wide margin (only team that's covered less than 40% of its home games this year). Also, getting back to the win streak, over the L3 seasons we have not seen Minnesota produce a single four-game win streak. They are 0-6 SU when off three consecutive victories. 

Houston has dominated Minnesota head to head, taking 10 of the past 11 matchups including six straight.  As was the case yday, the Rockets should be able to score plenty of points here (they've scored at least 107 pts in each of the 11 prior meetings) as the T'wolves rank 27th in terms of defensive efficiency by giving up 1.07 points per 100 possessions.  In yday's analysis, I talked about how preposterous it was that the Rockets dropped that game to the Suns on Friday as they shot 56.8% from the floor. I expect James Harden (scored 40 on Sunday) to have another big game and for the Rockets to stay alive in the playoff hunt. 10* Houston

10* Under Bucks/Magic (7:05 ET):  These teams have combined to go Over the total in all three prior meetings this season, plus Orlando comes in having gone Over in each of its last five games. But that's all conspired to create a situation where we now have some value on the Under as tonight's number promises to be the highest of any of the four O/U lines this season.  Furthermore, both teams are playing the second game of a back to back & I just don't see the energy being there from two teams that aren't going to the playoffs. Take the Under. 

Many don't know this, but the Magic can finish w/ the best ATS record in the league.  They failed to deliver as nine-point underdogs yday in Miami (lost 118-96), but even w/ the Warriors cashing at the betting window against the Spurs, it's Orlando that has a half-game lead in the ATS standings.  Now at home they've gone 23-16 ATS, but what's interesting about that is when they are here w/o rest and played on the road the previous night, things typically go very well.  In fact, they are giving up just 94.3 points per game in that situation!  So, don't look for Milwaukee to come in and shoot 55.8% from the floor like Miami did yday. Over the L5 games, Orlando is scoring roughly six points per game above their season average while giving up about eight points per game more than they allow for the year. Those numbers should start to come down. 

Speaking of going down, Milwaukee's defense has been hideous over the last five games as opponents have averaged 110.6 PPG against them. That can be explained by four of those teams (one was Orlando) all shooting 52.7% or better from the floor. But last night, we saw the Bucks hold the Sixers to 40.6% shooting. Unfortunately for Under players, the game still went Over because of overtime. As is the case w/ Orlando, Milwaukee's defensive numbers should start to progress back to the mean as they "only" allow 103.3 PPG this year. They probably won't have to deal w/ either Aaron Gordon or Victor Oladipo tonight as both Orlando players are still dealing w/ concussions. Offensively, it is unlikely that the Bucks get another 36 points from Kris Middleton tonight, so they too should suffer a decline in scoring as they average just 97.2 PPG on the road for the season. 10* Under Bucks/Magic

8* San Antonio (7:05 ET):  Yes, this means I'm calling for Golden State not to break the 1995-96 Bulls' single season record of 72 wins, something which only a few weeks ago looked to be a mere formality. But home losses to both the Celtics and T'wolves changed that and now the defending NBA Champs are back to a place where one of their other seven losses occurred, that being San Antonio.  Lost in the Warriors' pursuit of history is that the Spurs have basically been just as impressive, if not moreso.  It is San Antonio, not Golden State, that has the league's best scoring margin at +11.0 per game and not only are the Spurs off B2B losses for the 1st time all season, but they are at home where they're unbeaten (39-0 SU). The Warriors played last night and had to rally back from a 10-pt fourth quarter deficit to defeat injury-riddled Memphis, 100-99 (were -13).  This is a bad spot for them. Lay the points.

When I played the Spurs at home against the Warriors back on March 19th, I noted that the typically favorite-loving public actually has a natural inclination to take the points when two top teams are facing off and that there's usually some pretty good value on the chalk in such situations. Sure enough, after Golden State beat San Antonio 112-101 at home on Thursday (I won w/ the Over), the favorite is now a perfect 3-0 ATS in Warriors-Spurs matchups this year w/ every game decided by at least eight points.   Again, San Antonio has not lost a single home game all season. Before resting starters Friday vs. Denver, they were 12-0 SU (10-2 ATS) off a loss and their average margin of victory in the situation remains 17.7 points per game as they allow fewer than 90 PPG.

The Warriors are an impressive 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS when playing in the second of back to back road games this year, but clearly their pursuit of history has taken its toll and as recently as yesterday there were talks about forsaking the record in favor of saving themselves for what will be a challenging postseason (after the 1st round). Steph Curry, in particular, is showing signs of "wear and tear" as last night saw him go a woeful 3 of 14 from three-point range and the last game here in San Antonio he was 1 of 12. This game should give us the Spurs at their best while I can't say the same for the Warriors. That will be enough for the home team to win by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for here. 8* San Antonio

8* Houston (3:30 ET):  The Rockets suffered an embarrassing defeat on Thursday, dumping a game to the sorry Suns, 124-115 as 12-point chalk.  That loss left them 1.5 games back of eighth place Utah w/ three to play. But a major reprieve came Friday night in the form of the Jazz losing (as 12.5-pt favorites) at home to the Clippers, again opening the door for Houston to get into the postseason. These final three games certainly look easy as James Harden and company will take on the Lakers, Minnesota and Sacramento w/ only the game against the T'wolves taking place on the road.  Losing to a team like Phoenix is concerning as is the Rockets' lack of defense, but I'll still call for them to bounce back in a major way Sunday afternoon against the team that I feel is the worst in all of the NBA.

These teams have previously met three times this season. All three times have resulted in blowout wins for the Rockets as the respective margins of victory have been: 29, 20 and 17.  Two of those games were played in Los Angeles.  Normally, given the situation ("must win" for the Rockets), you might think they'd be overvalued, but they're actually not as the last time they visited LA (January 17th) they were 10-pt favorites and covered easily, doing so despite missing 15 of 21 three-point attempts. It should be pointed out that against Phoenix, the Rockets led by as many as 13 in the second half and shot 56.1 percent for the game. How they could then lose is pretty unfathomable, although clearly you could point to the fact they gave up 36 second chance points, the most in any NBA game in six seasons. 

Defensively, the Rockets are bad, but thankfully the Lakers are even worse. Byron Scott's team (by the way, what an absolutely horrid coaching job Scott has done this year) is dead last in the league in defensive efficiency and allows 110.3 points per game on the road. That was a major reason I played them Over the total in their last game at New Orleans (which was a winning call) as they gave up exactly 110 to a Pelicans team that is w/o its top five scorers. Offensively, the Lakers have scored only 93 pts per 100 possessions against the Rockets this year and that includes Kobe Bryant actually shooting 54.1% from the floor. The league's worst jump shooter by a wide margin, Bryant isn't likely to shoot that ball that well here and that spells doom for a Lakers team that has been dominated on the glass in the three games vs. Houston. This should - and will - be an absolute blowout.  8* Houston

10* Portland (10:35 ET):  Sure, Minnesota is off B2B SU wins here, one of them the stunner of the year (at Golden State). But I see no reason why the Blazers shouldn't blow them out as all the motivational edges lie w/ the home team here. Portland has moved into 5th place in the Western Conference, passing injury-riddled Memphis, and can further cement their spot in the playoffs by winning here.  The T'wolves, meanwhile, should be more focused on the lottery.  Their last two wins have come on the road, but before that they had only 12 such victories and the Blazers happen to be a strong home team w/ a 27-12 record at the Moda Center thanks to a scoring average of 108.2 per game.  This should turn into a lopsided game.

Portland's "sweet spot" seems to be when playing w/ exactly two days rest as they are 10-3 straight up and against the spread.  Their only loss in the last seven games came at Golden State (Warriors were off 1st home loss of the season) and almost all of the six wins have been by comfortable margins, including a 110-93 win against Miami here at home.  Coming off a win over short-handed Oklahoma City (rested both Durant and Westbrook) and with the only two games remaining taking place here at home against Minnesota and Denver, you have to like this team's chances of finishing fifth.  Offensively, they have averaged 114.4 points their last five games, scoring at least 110 in every game.  That's too much firepower for Minnesota. 

Believe it or not, but the T'wolves were actually favored in both home games against Portland this season.  But both games took place back before the New Year and the Blazers won both anyway. What a job HC Terry Stotts has done this year in the face of losing four starters (including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge) from last year's squad.  Since January 10th, the Blazers have won 28 of 41 games overall and they are 19-3 L22 at home  I expect them to shoot well from three-point range in this matchup and Damian Lillard to break out of a recent slump. Meanwhile, Minnesota is very "feast or famine" offensively as four of the last seven games have seen them fail to break 85 points. 10* Portland

10* Over Lakers/Pelicans (8:05 ET):  These two awful teams have combined to stay Under the total in 10 straight games, the Pelicans accounting for six of those and the Lakers four. Los Angeles sure couldn't do much in either game of a home & home vs. the Clippers this week, scoring only 81 points in both games.  Meanwhile, the depleted Pelicans failed to get to 100 in losses at Philadelphia and Boston.  But even with the recent slew a pathetic offensive showings from both sides, I believe we have a total that's simply too low here.  The Lakers, in terms of efficiency, are the worst defensive team in the league and then you have the Pelicans only five spots higher. There probably won't be a lot of defense played here, so take the Over.

This is the third and (obviously) final meeting of the season between the two teams and the first two did both stay Under the total. But this promises to be the lowest number yet of the trio of matchups.  Interestingly, the last time the Lakers and Pelicans met, it was a 99-96 victory here in New Orleans.  What's significant about that is that the Over is a stunning 28-10 in Pelicans' home games this season, including 8-1 if they are favored by three points or less (which they are here). They are also 18-5 Over as favorites of any kind.  In that last meeting, they were 9.5-pt faves, but shot only 4 of 20 from three-point range and missed 12 of 26 free throws. I don't anticipate those kind of shooting woes repeating themselves this time around.

As mentioned before, the Lakers are just awful defensively. They give up 110.3 PPG on the road.  So, just an "average" performance by them at that end of the floor should give us what we need tonight.  Now, offensively, we will need more than the hideous 87.8 points they've been averaging the last six games.  Fortunately, the Pelicans give up 105.9 PPG here at home and the average amount of scoring that takes place in Pelicans' home games this year is 211.6 PPG.  Those are numbers that an awful shooter like Kobe Bryant can even take advantage of.  Bryant will certainly get his fair share of looks in this one, and while normally that might scare me, he did score 27 the last time he faced New Orleans. 10* Over Lakers/Pelicans

8* Brooklyn (7:05 ET):  The Nets - by any measure - are not a good team. A six-game straight up (and against the spread) losing streak confirms that right off the bat. They are also just 21-57 SU for the year (7-32 in road games) and rate as the fourth worst team in the league, ahead of only Phoenix, Philadelphia and the Lakers. But while many other teams in a similar position are thinking about tanking for a better lottery position, Brooklyn has no such luxury. That's because their 1st round pick is owed to Boston, so the incentive to tank that those other teams may have really shouldn't be present here. I realize that the Nets' resume is hardly inspiring, but tonight's matchup w/ Charlotte reminds me of the Hornets' game last Friday against Philadelphia when I took the points and won. Do the same again here.

Last Friday's spread vs. the 76ers, who some might consider to be the worst team in the league, had the Hornets favored by 13. I labeled that number "too rich for me" as rarely is this team in this price range.  Tonight's spread is even higher and in fact is the most points Charlotte has had to lay since a game in March of '08 against an injury-depleted Heat squad that dressed only nine players.   Including the non-cover LW vs. Philly, the Hornets are 1-2 ATS this year as a favorite of 12.5 or more points, all of those games coming here at home obviously.  All three matchups w/ Brooklyn so far this season have been decided by single digits.

Brooklyn's defense has been really bad of late, that I will concede. Wednesday, they allowed the Wizards to make 40 of 67 two-point attempts. That just can't happen. Some of that had to do with the decision to shut down both Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young for the remainder of the year. But I feel the remaining players will be quite hungry.  Charlotte could be w/o Nic Batum here (Update: he is probable to play) and has lost its last two games w/ him out of the lineup.  Don't look for Kemba Walker to be as hot as he was Wednesday vs. the Knicks (made 7 of 10 three-pointers) though and the Nets also have a winning ATS record this season when taking 12.5 or more points.  They can - and will - stay within this generous number. 8* Brooklyn

8* Over Spurs/Warriors (10:35 ET):  I know how low-scoring the last meeting between these two was as I was on the Spurs, who won 87-79 as five-point favorites.  Given that result and the current states of the Warriors (lost 2 of 3), it's also tempting to take the points here, but I'll pass as it's always tempting to take the points in a matchup of two top teams yet you'd be surprised just how often the favorite comes out ahead.  Therefore, it's back to the total. The Under has cashed each of the last four meetings as well as six of the last seven.  But with Golden State at home this time, they won't shoot anywhere close to as poorly as they did back on March 19th.  Remember this team is just two games removed from scoring 136 pts in regulation. Take the Over.

San Antonio isn't too shabby offensively either as they are third in efficiency, trailing only Golden State and Oklahoma City.  So, with a battle of two of the top three efficient offenses in the league, I think it's fair to expect a lot more scoring than what we saw three weeks ago.  Neither team shot well there as the Spurs were only 41.0 percent from the field (GSW was at 37.8%), but did make up for it w/ 8 of 21 shooting from three-point range. Very few free throws were attempted in the game as well (just 28 total!) as the Warriors only got to the line 10 times (they average 22 FT attempts per game!).  Also helping to keep this O/U line down is the fact the Spurs come off a very low-scoring game against the Jazz, who are #2 defensively in the NBA and last in pace of play. It will be a massive shift in tempo tonight.

Steph Curry really struggled in that last meeting as he was just 4 of 18 from the floor, including 1 of 12 from three-point range.  He also struggled in Tuesday's stunner vs. the T'wolves as he missed his first eight shots in the first half.  Absolutely, he'll be better tonight.  The one concern I have with Golden State right now is that defensively they are allowing 106.8 PPG the L5 games.  There is always the chance San Antonio HC Greg Popovich rests players, but the bottom line is his team is 0-3 SU/ATS as an underdog, giving up an average of 114.3 PPG in those contests. 8* Over Spurs/Warriors

10* Atlanta (8:05 ET): This number might look a little "steep" to some and that was my initial thought as well, until I noticed the so-called "smart" money appeared to be hammering the Hawks.  Despite receiving less than a majority of total bets, the line is going up here and that always seems to be a positive sign for a favorite a la Philadelphia was for me on Tuesday night.  Toronto is essentially "locked into" the second seed in the East and really has nothing to play for these last few games while Atlanta is looking to earn at least home court advantage for a first round series, if not the #3 seed.  They've been the hotter team of late (won 13 of 17) and have revenge for an eight-point loss in Toronto last week.  Lay the points.

Two of the Hawks' last four losses have come to the Raptors. In fact, they are 0-3 head to head w/ Toronto this season. So, psychologically, this is a game they need to win.  It's not as if any of the three prior meetings were one-sided. Now that being said, the Raptors did lead by as many as 20, in Toronto, last week.  I kind of thought the home team was a solid value in that one (-1), but here the tables have turned and it's an Atlanta team that's holding opponents to 97.7 PPG here at home that's the value.  The Hawks have held their last seven opponents to just 40.2 percent shooting, which is obviously outstanding, and in the last game Phoenix (granted, a woeful team) couldn't break the 20-point barrier in any of the final three quarters.

Toronto has won two of three since beating Atlanta last Wednesday and while their last two losses came at the hands of San Antonio and Oklahoma City, they've dropped three of five on the road w/ the only wins coming at the expense of injury-riddled teams, Memphis and New Orleans.  The offense has failed to score 100 points in three consecutive contests and it should be pointed out that outside of facing their own division (which has three terrible teams), the Raptors' ATS record is downright mediocre.  10* Atlanta

8* Over Clippers/Lakers (10:35 ET):  These teams just met last night and it was the Clippers coming out on top by a score of 103-81.  With the Lakers scoring only 37 points total in the second half, obviously the game stayed Under and that's the way the total has now gone in each of the six matchups between the two Staples Center tenants.  Obviously, the home-road designation is completely meaningless here. Given the Lakers defensive ineptitude, I think we're in store for a higher scoring game Wednesday night, provided the "home" team can also raise its own level of scoring, which has sunk to a woeful average of 89.2 PPG its last five games.  Take the Over.

Offensively, the Lakers have been held back all year by Kobe Bryant's absolutely atrocious shooting (worst jump shooter in the league this season) and last night was no different as he totaled just six points on 2 of 12 shooting.  Bryant did score 34 Sunday vs. Boston, so you had to figure regression was in the cards.  But tonight, thankfully, we're going to get a better performance because, really, he can't possibly be any worse. Now, one area that the Lakers can be worse in tonight is defensively.  This is a team that is 30th in defensive efficiency and gives up 106.8 PPG.   They've given up at least 100 eight straight times and in the two games previous to last night the Under cashed just barely.  So, I'd say it's very reasonable to expect the Lakers to both score and allow more points tonight.

The Clippers are second in the league in offensive efficiency and that's with Blake Griffin (likely to sit out here) missing most of the season. So they should be able to "carve up" the Lakers a little more than last night when they clearly took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter (only 19 pts scored), up big.  It's not like they'll miss the four points Griffin scored last night anyway.  At the same time, I earlier spoke of likely Lakers offensive improvement and to back that up, I find it difficult to believe that the starting five will go 10 of 51 from the floor yet again.  The Over is 11-5 when the Lakers are playing the second of back to back games and tonight's total (lower than last night's) is too low.  8* Over Clippers/Lakers

10* Over Pelicans/Celtics (7:35 ET): Boston is the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference (105.7 PPG) and it's become pretty rare to see them held under 100 points. In fact, that's happened just six times since January 12th & in half of those they still scored at least 97.  The result of this scoring barrage has been a rather dramatic increase in the average O/U line we're seeing for their games this year. Consider that the average O/U line for a Celtics game this season is 207.5.  Last year, they played in only 21 games where the O/U line was that high.  Lately, we've seen the linesmakers post some really high totals for their games and the result is that the Celtics have gone Under in six of the past seven games. But tonight, it's a better number to work with, and I see this one flying Over!

When looking to take a team Over the total, it's helpful to have a "willing dance partner" and in this instance, we've got one w/ New Orleans, who gives up 105.7 PPG.   I played against the injury-riddled Pelicans last night as they gave up 107 points to the worst offensive team in the league (Philadelphia). Losing by double digits to the Sixers is in no way a good sign for a team simply playing out the string.  The Pelicans' defense had turned in B2B strong efforts in wins over Brooklyn and Denver, but I don't see that being the case here in the second game of a back to back.  While the Under has cashed w/ great regularity in New Orleans road games this season (as opposed to at home where they are 28-10 Over), I see a different story unfolding tonight.

These teams met back in December and the O/U line was actually higher (211.5) then. The game stayed Under despite Boston scoring 111 points on 49.4% shooting (were 12 of 29 from three-point range).  While I have very little concern over what the Celtics scoring output will be tonight, it is clear that we'll need "help" from New Orleans, who must find a way to score despite not having its top five scorers (all injured!).  Fortunately, the Celtics tend to give up their fair share as well (107.0 PPG L5) and they are 2-0 Over this year when favored by 12.5 or more at home. 10* Over Pelicans/Celtics

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  The Sixers are....favored?  You would think that such a thing would have me running to the other side, but it's obviously important to understand why the line is what it is and in this case, their opponent (New Orleans) is very injured (no Anthony Davis) and ripe for a fall (are actually off B2B wins).  Plus, crazy as it sounds, Philadelphia has been a great bet in the chalk role this season, going a perfect 3-0 ATS! They've beaten Brooklyn, Phoenix and the Lakers all here at home, winning two of those games by double digits! Those would of course be the three other worst teams in the league (not including themselves) and New Orleans is probably next in the pecking order. The Sixers are trying to avoid matching the 1972-73 squad for the league's worst all-time single season record (need one more win).  This is their chance to do it.  Lay the points.

Other than Memphis, New Orleans has probably been the most banged up team in the league this year. Right now, no team has more injuries than this one as Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holliday and Norris Cole are all out.  Those are their top five scorers (if you're keeping track at home), their two top rebounders and the top two in assists.  Still, they've somehow managed to post B2B victories, beating Denver and Brooklyn, the latter coming Tuesday as the Pelicans shot 55.3% from the floor in a 106-87 rout on the road. Considering the current state of the team, I just cannot see them winning two in a row on the road where they are only 9-29 SU for the year.

An analysis of early line movement here reveals that despite a majority of tickets being written on the Pelicans side, the number has still gone up, which is a likely reflection of the so-called "smart money" being on the side of the Sixers.  It makes sense because the vast majority of bettors are going to see that New Orleans has won B2B games while Philly is on a 12-gm losing streak.  But the 76ers certainly have been competitive in their last two games, first taking Charlotte down to the wire on Friday and then doing the same vs. Indiana the next night. The final scores may not reflect it, but those were close games most of the way.  Here, they finally get that elusive 10th win of the season. 10* Philadelphia

10* Villanova (9:20 ET):  And we're down to two.  Those two, Villanova and North Carolina both steamrolled their way into Monday's Title Game w/ the former producing the largest margin of victory in Final Four history (my *10* NCAA Game of the Year). Curiously, the "lookahead" line for this particular matchup had UNC -1.5, so I'm surprised to see a bigger number here, especially because I consider Villanova to be the better team.  Remember that the Wildcats have already ousted what was the tourney favorite (Kansas) and there other four wins have come by an average of 29 points per game.  UNC has won all five of its matchups by double digits, but the key here will be a 'Nova defense that's allowing just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament going against a Tar Heels squad that struggles to shoot from the outside.  I'm on the underdog here and would not be shocked at an outright upset. Take the points.

While both teams have been equally impressive in their respective runs to tonight's Title Game, Villanova has clearly faced a harder slate of opponents. They've gone against Iowa, Miami, Kansas and Oklahoma, all of whom spent significant time in the Top 15 this year.  Look at whom UNC has faced and you'll realize that they've been a bit "lucky" as really Indiana was the only perceived threat among the group of opponents.  They were favored by at least 9.5 in every other game and got to take on a six seed in the Elite 8 and then a seven seed in the Final Four. Meanwhile, Nova benefited from no such upsets, save for (I guess) facing a 2-seed in the Final Four.  In my analysis for that Nova-Oklahoma matchup, I made mention of the Wildcats' incredible ATS mark vs. non-conference teams, which has now reached 31-12 L43 (13-4 this season). Overall, Nova is 66-37 ATS in all games the L3 seasons.

The fact that Villanova is allowing just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament (especially considering the list of those opponents) is just as impressive as the fact they're averaging 84.8 (at 1.31 per possession).  Keep in mind they just held Kansas and Oklahoma, both of whom averaged over 80 PPG, to just 59 and 51 points respectively.  What's keeping this team undervalued is all the past NCAA Tournament failures, but that's all "water under the bridge" now.  I have them rated as the better of the two teams here, so naturally I'm all over them as a dog.  10* Villanova

8* Under Villanova/North Carolina (9:20 ET): Clearly, these two teams didn't get the memo about any kind of "stadium effect" NRG in Houston is supposed to have as they shot extraordinarily well in blowout wins Saturday.  In fact, Villanova was an absolutely otherworldly 71.4% from the field in their 44-point win over Oklahoma (my *10* Game of the Year), which was the second highest shooting percentage in any Final Four game in history.  Without question, they will not be shooting as well as they did Saturday here.  North Carolina went 53.8% against Syracuse's zone, but that includes an equally ridiculous 31 of 48 on two-point attempts, which also isn't going to be duplicated.  I assume you can see where I'm going here and that is Under the total.

I'd like to reiterate the history of poor shooting that has taken place here in Houston's NRG Stadium in tournaments past.  The venue has hosted a Final Four previously and that was in 2011 where none of the games saw more than 132 total points scored, including a Championship Game where the two teams involved (UConn and Butler) combined for just 94 points and a dreadful 10 of 44 shooting from three-point range.  This was also the site of last year's South Regional and again the results were disastrous for the offenses as they averaged only 124.5 PPG while the Under went 3-0 (by a combined 43.5 points). Teams shot less than 40 percent overall from the field and 26.7% from three-point range!  Now, both of these teams were unaffected Saturday, but the history must be respected. Plus, both games still barely went Over the total, only doing so in the final minute.

North Carolina is not a good three-point shooting team, in fact, they are quite terrible.  They opened the game vs. Syracuse by missing their first 10 attempts from behind the arc and while they finished 4 of 17, they shoot at just a 31.3% clip outside of Chapel Hill for the season.  Villanova is giving up just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament and held Kansas and Oklahoma (both of whom averaged more than 80 PPG) to a total of 110 pts.  The offensive efficiency won't be as high in this game as it was on Saturday and it should be noted that we're getting a higher number to work with here compared to either national semifinal.  8* Villanova/North Carolina

10* New York (7:35 ET):  Last night's Indiana game treated me well as I had the Over, but a late surge by the Pacers was needed for their backers to earn a cover. Considering who the opponent was (Philadelphia), that's not a particularly encouraging sign, especially after the team had dumped four of its previous five games against the spread.  Here, we find them, in the second game of a back to back, laying points on the road to a Knicks team that came out victorious Friday here at home vs. Brooklyn.  Granted, the Nets aren't any good either, but it was New York's largest margin of victory (14 points) since a March 9th trouncing of Phoenix. This line should be closer to a pick 'em according to the power rankings. Take the points.

The Pacers actually trailed the Sixers (by three) entering the fourth quarter last night before outscoring the league's worst team 41-25 the rest of the way.  Yet they were actually DOWN by six at one point in the fourth and it was a tie game with just 3:39 remaining.  So, it really was a late surge (17-4 run to close the game) that stole the cover thanks to five Philly turnovers in the final four minutes.   Indiana still has a losing road record (17-21 SU) and keep in mind that last night's tough battle with Philly came on the heels of bad home losses to the Magic and Bulls.  They are just 5-10 straight up in the second game of a back to back this season as well. I haven't even mentioned yet how the Sixers played short-handed last night!

The Knicks may be a bit short-handed here as well, but that doesn't mean they aren't a great value. It was a three-point game in Indiana back in February (Knicks covered as 6-pt dogs), so again, this line should be closer to pick 'em.  Defensively, the Knicks have surprised recently by holding four of their last five opponents under 100 points.  Note that they beat the Nets w/o either Jose Calderon or Kristaps Porzingis in the starting lineup. Winning outright here is obviously a greater challenge, but I certainly give them a shot at home and note this team has really only been blown out once since St. Patrick's Day (in Cleveland). 10* New York

10* LA Clippers (3:35 ET): Personally, I'm stunned that this line isn't higher considering the Clips will be at full strength (Jordan, Paul, Redick all rested last game) and that includes Blake Griffin, who makes his long anticipated return Sunday afternoon.  Yes, Griffin is reportedly still dealing with a quad tear. But even w/o his services this line would be too low as Washington continues to sport a negative efficiency rating in spite of its fleeting playoff hopes.  The Wiz have won only two of their last six games, the wins coming at the expense of the Lakers and Sunday, while the Clips minus all those players still found a way to almost beat Oklahoma City its last time out (lost 119-117 as 17-pt underdogs!). Lay the points here.

Overall, LA comes into this afternoon's contest riding a four-game ATS win streak. In addition to what would have been a monumental upset of OKC, they've also posted three double digit victories during this time frame, two of them coming here at Staples Center.  After watching the Clips score 117 points w/o their four of their top five scorers Friday night, I see no reason why we shouldn't be expecting another big offensive performance here w/ the team now at "full strength."  Washington is somewhat of a disaster defensively (allows 105.1 PPG on the road) and recently gave up 120 in a loss to Sacramento. The first time these teams met (Clips w/o Griffin), it was a 108-91 LA beatdown (in D.C.). Overall, the Clips are 7-1 ATS vs. the Southeast Division this year.

Not only is Washington bad defensively, but on offense they are very inefficient. By now, everyone is aware of the fast pace (5th in the league) the team intends to play at, but the problem has been that they are just 22nd in efficiency, averaging just 1.02 points per possession.  For a frame of reference, the Clippers rank 6th in offensive efficiency.  This is also the Wizards' fifth consecutive game out West (over an 8-day span) and they didn't even get the benefit of playing consecutively in Los Angeles (trip started last Sunday vs. the Lakers). So, fatigue could definitely be a factor here. Before Friday night's win and cover at lowly Phoenix, the Wiz were just 7-14 ATS when coming off three straight road games. 10* LA Clippers

8* Oklahoma City (3:30 ET):  I'd have to say that Houston has been one of my top go-against teams this season in NBA.  They were due to "give some back" anyway after league-leading 58% ATS rate last season and this year they simply have not been that good as is reiterated by an efficiency rating that's been "in the red" virtually all season long. They are actually pretty lucky that the West is top-heavy and thus not very deep because in the past a .500 record could not get you into the playoffs in this Conference.  Right now, they are two games below the "Mendoza Line" and trail Dallas/Utah by one game. I know that means they are desperate and have a lot to play for, but still, the Thunder are simply much better than what this pointspread indicates.

Perhaps the reason for this short line is the fact that OKC struggled to beat a severely undermanned Clippers team its last time out.  That game saw them prevail by just two, although considering who LA was sitting (Paul, Redick and Jordan) and the line ballooning to -17, I think it would actually be understandable that OKC would overlook the game entirely.  It also hurt that the Clippers somehow went 16 for 29 from three-point range in the game.  That made it two straight ATS losses for the Thunder as w/o Kevin Durant they lost outright in Detroit, who held them to 82 points. Maybe the Rockets are capable of the kind of three-point proliferation we saw from the Clippers in the last game, but certainly not the kind of defense we saw from the Pistons. By the way, OKC has won 9 of its last 10 overall.

  Now Houston is 3-0 ATS vs. OKC this year, but that includes two covers on the road when they were getting way more points than they are here.  Of late, the Rockets have not played well, dropping five of seven and one of those wins was a massive comeback against a LeBron-less Cleveland squad.  Defensively, this is just a terrible team as they give up 106.6 points per game, which should be feasted upon by the second most efficient offensive team in the league.  Houston is off an outright loss (were 6-pt favorites) here at home to what had been a struggling Chicago squad.  I don't see this step up in class going well for them. 8* Oklahoma City

8* Syracuse (8:45 ET): Some were surprised that the Orange didn't open as double digit underdogs for this National Semifinal vs. still-heavily favored North Carolina, but I for one was not as there hasn't been a double digit spread in any Final Four game in the last 15 years. For the record, I think the underdog is actually a little undervalued heading into this one as this will be their third "crack" at the Tar Heels and with double revenge on their mind, they're a strong play plus the points. Question the inclusion of Jim Boeheim's team among the field of 68 all you want, but the fact is that they have played remarkably well for more than 80% of the total game time (did fall behind Virginia before stunning rally) since the Tournament got underway.  Also, Syracuse is a perfect 10-0 ATS the L10 times it has taken the court with five or six days rest, including 3-0 this season.  Take the points.

Looking at the two meetings from the regular season, both won by North Carolina, the final margins were 11 and 5 points. Both games featured terrible three-point shooting from each side and given this rubber match takes place in Houston's NRG Stadium, I'd expect that trend to continue.  The key to the Tar Heels' 84-73 victory at the Carrier Dome back on January 9th was that they shot 29 of 45 on two-point attempts, which won't be duplicated here, as that was Boeheim's first game back from his well-publicized suspension.  Points off turnovers were also huge for UNC (in both games) as they averaged 16.5 per game. But be aware that Syracuse has turned the ball over 10 times or fewer in each of the last three games.  They did not turn the ball over once (in 32 possessions) in the second half vs. Virginia, who is a much better defensive team than North Carolina.

The 62 points Syracuse allowed to Virginia in Sunday's Elite 8 matchup was the most they've given up in any tournament game thus far.  North Carolina has the benefit of having previously taken on the Boeheim zone twice this year, but Virginia had also previously faced them and came up with a lower-scoring effort the second time around.  The Tar Heels, similarly, saw a decrease in offensive production from the first meeting to the second and it only stands to reason that the third will see yet another decrease.  While the final scores seem to all indicate that UNC has had an easy time this tournament, only the game vs. Indiana was really a blowout from wire to wire and it needs to be reiterated that they have yet to face a truly great, or even good, defensive team. Syracuse has gone against three top 25 opponents in defensive efficiency so far (plus Middle Tennessee) while the most efficient defense UNC has seen to this point would be Providence, who was 27th (all others were 74th or lower!).  I look for this to be a tight game.  8* Syracuse

10* Under Syracuse/North Carolina (8:45 ET): I correctly projected both of these teams Elite 8 games to go Over the total. With North Carolina, which was the bigger Over bet against Notre Dame, it seemed fairly safe as the Tar Heels were coming off a 101-point effort against Indiana and facing the worst non-16 seed in the entire Tournament  at defending the three-point line .  It was a high number (closed 153.5) but was on pace to go Over basically throughout. As for Syracuse, well, the Over seemed pretty "dead in the water" after a really slow start vs. Virginia, but somehow the Orange were able to forge a monster second-half rally, not only continuing their own improbable march to Houston, but also resulting in the game going Over with relative ease. Of note is that it was the most total points scored in any Syracuse game this Tournament (130). The total has to be higher here because of who the opponent is, but in my opinion the number is far "too slanted" in the Tar Heels direction. Take the Under.

Any discussion of the total for either of Saturday's games must center around the venue, that being Houston's cavernous NRG Stadium, which simply put has been "death to shooting" in past NCAA Tournaments.  The venue has hosted a Final Four previously and that was in 2011 where none of the games saw more than 132 total points scored, including a Championship Game where the two teams involved (UConn and Butler) combined for just 94 points and a dreadful 10 of 44 shooting from three-point range.  This was also the site of last year's South Regional and again the results were disastrous for the offenses as they averaged only 124.5 PPG while the Under went 3-0 (by a combined 43.5 points). Teams shot less than 40 percent overall from the field and 26.7% from three-point range!  That makes the Under now 5-1 the L6 tourney games played here w/ the only Over cashing by one-half point. 

Neither of these teams are that great at shooting the ball to begin with, particularly North Carolina when it comes to three-point range as the Tar Heels are only 32.1% for the year from behind the arc.  In two games vs. the Syracuse zone, they are a hideous 9 of 41.  Note that they have been at 33 percent or below in three of four tournament games to this point (were 55% vs. Indiana).  Of course, Syracuse was not much better in either regular season matchup vs. UNC, connecting on only 14 of 51 three-point attempts.  While the Virginia game represented one of the lower totals for any Orange game this season, this one resides on the high end of the spectrum, though both regular season matchups vs. UNC were higher (Under was 1-1). Still though, the Under is 11-2 the L13 Syracuse games where the total is between 140 and 149.5, including a strong 7-1 this season.  10* Under Syracuse/North Carolina

10* Over Pacers/Sixers (7:35 ET):  Philadelphia treated me well last night, covering as big underdogs in Charlotte. They still haven't won since March 11th though and as discussed in yday's analysis, if they lose out, then they will match the 1972-73 team for the worst single season record in NBA history.  Therefore, I don't expect them to simply "roll over" here for Indiana in what will be the first of four consecutive home games. As for the Pacers, they are still wondering "what happened?" after losing by 20 at home to Orlando Thursday night. It was their second straight SU loss as a favorite and third in the last four games overall. Something tells me that we'll be seeing plenty of scoring here, so I'm on the Over.

These teams met in late March and the Pacers won 91-75 as 15-point home chalk. The total for that matchup was 210, so there's some value here.  Beginning with that game, Indiana has now stayed Under in five of its last six contests.  Many of those games had higher totals than the one we're getting here, however.  As for Philadelphia, they've now gone Under in six straight games. But all six of those games had higher totals than this one.  They've allowed at least 100 pts in each of the last five games and for the season give up 107.8 PPG at home. If they can at least get to their YTD scoring average (97.4 PPG) here at home, something they failed to do in Indiana, then we should be in good shape here. 

In the home and home vs. Charlotte, Philly didn't shoot well as they were below 35% overall from the field.  Despite Indiana's defensive prowess (3rd in efficiency), I expect the Sixers to shoot better here. In three of its last four games, the Pacers have given up a ton of points in the paint (54 or more) and two of those opponents shot at least 53.3% from the field overall. Those opponents were Orlando and Brooklyn, hardly world-beaters, so there is hope for Philly fans here. As for Indiana's offense, well, it should have little difficulty scoring here.  The Sixers are just 25th in defensive efficiency.  They scored 112 pts in a visit here early in the season. The Over is 12-3 when the Pacers are a road favorite of 9.5 to 12 points while it's also 9-2 this season when the 76ers are a home dog in the same price range.  10* Over Pacers/Sixers

10* Villanova (6:05 ET):  Clearly, "ghosts of Tournaments past" seem to have undervalued Jay Wright's team coming into this year's edition of the Big Dance. Nova's well-publicized failure to make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament each of the past five seasons resulted in many (myself included) skeptical of a potential Final Four run this year, especially with Tourney favorite Kansas being the 1-seed in their bracket. But Wright's Wildcats beat the Jayhawks and did so in impressive fashion, leading most of the way and allowing only 59 points in the process. While it has been Villanova's offense grabbing the headlines in this tournament (at least in the first three games), the defense has held the opposition to an average of just 63 PPG and that's while facing three of the top 24 offenses in terms of efficiency in the entire country!  They are my choice to get to Monday's Final.

Oklahoma's shooting this year has been quite remarkable. As a team, they have made almost 43 percent of their three-point attempts this season and shockingly have been slightly better than that in the Tournament despite nearly half of their total shots coming from behind the arc! Of course, they are seemingly overly dependent on one player, that being Buddy Hield, who went for 37 points (8 of 13 from 3-pt range) in the Sooners' 80-68 Elite 8 victory over Oregon that I called correctly. Of course, I was no real fan of the Ducks and also noted the Hield was coming off a sub-par effort (by his standard) and likely to have a big game there.  I do not see him nor the team shooting as well Saturday in Houston's somewhat cavernous NRG Stadium.  Note that despite all their exploits, OU has been somewhat mispriced by the oddsmakers for much of the season (just 14-20 ATS overall), especially of late (just 5-11 ATS since the start of February). Meanwhile, Villanova has been a huge money-maker the past three seasons at 65-37 ATS.  Interestingly, though more tickets have been written on the Sooners here, the line moved from -1 to -2 (even as high as -2.5 in some places) rather quickly.

While the other national semifinal is a matchup of conference foes and thus we'll obviously have regular season matchups to analyze, this too is a regular season rematch as back on December 7th Oklahoma handed Villanova its worst loss of the season, 78-55 at Pearl Harbor (Villanova was a five-point favorite there).  Nova shot a woeful 31.7% from the floor in that game (was only a six-point deficit at halftime) including a disastrous 4 for 32 from three-point range (OU was 14 of 26 from behind the arc). As you might expect, Hield had a solid game, but only scored 18 points and I think this Nova defense can contain him again and the rest of the Sooners for that matter the second go around.  The Wildcats are a remarkable 30-12 ATS their L42 non-conference games, had more "true" road wins and a better point differential during the regular season than did Oklahoma, and are more likely to be better on both ends of the court in this rematch.  Don't discount the impact free-throw shooting might have either; Nova is 95 percent the last two games from the charity stripe.  Kris Jenkins, not Hield, will be the player to watch in this game.  10* Villanova

8* Miami (10:05 ET):  This is a spread that my own personal power ratings wouldn't agree with, but what the power ratings don't know is that Sacramento's Boogie Cousins is suspended here and that we have one team (Miami) coming off an embarrassing loss (to the Lakers) while the other (Sacramento) pulled a moderate upset its last time out (were +1.5 in a 120-111 win over Washington here at home).  The Kings have surprisingly covered six of their last seven games (including four straight), but I look for that success to come to an end here as they are w/o their best player, not to mention are a bad team off a win and that typically makes for fade material the next time out.  Lay the points.

Miami ought to be fairly ashamed of itself for dumping a game to the Lakers (in overtime) on Wednesday. They were huge 10-point favorites in that one, but turned the ball over 18 times and missed 11 free throws in the two-point loss.  I'll chalk that up to being "one of those games" as this team has actually played quite well of late as the offense scored at least 100 points in every game but one (at San Antonio) during the month of March.  They've won 11 of 16 overall and should bounce back offensively here (after shooting just 3 of 17 from three-point range against the Lakers) against the most inept defensive team in the league (Kings allow 109 points per game).  Joe Johnson certainly has been a revelation since coming over from Brooklyn (key to the offensive surge) as has Hassan Whiteside, who off the bench has 17 double doubles in the L20 games. This is a good team.

The Kings are not a good team, especially when they are w/o Cousins.  They've lost 10 of 12 when their best player is suspended or injured and as a home underdog in this price range (+6.5 to 9), they've come up empty as well this year, going 0 for 5 against the spread.  Miami is an opponent that has certainly had their number through the years as the Heat have won 29 of the last 36 meetings (28-8 ATS) including eight of ten here in Sacramento.  Coming off a SU win as an underdog, the Kings are just 13-27 ATS L40 (4-7 this year). Meanwhile, the Heat are 9-5 SU/ATS off an outright loss as a favorite. 8* Miami

8* Dallas (7:35 ET):  In the wake of the Chandler Parsons injury, the Mavs seem to have become undervalued in recent weeks and such is the case tonight here in Detroit.  Now, let's be honest here. The Pistons have been red hot at home as they've won 9 of 11 in the Motor City w/ both losses coming at the hands of the same team (Atlanta).  They've moved into seventh in the East (passed Indiana) and are currently two games clear of the ninth place Bulls (who won last night).  But despite all the recent success, this team still outscores its opponents by less than one point per game over the course of the season and actually still sports a negative efficiency rating. They don't shoot the ball particularly well either. I'm taking the points.

Following a 2-10 SU stretch where they actually played better than that record indicates, the Mavs have recorded much needed B2B victories this week.  The first, I was on, and it came at Denver. They followed that up w/ a two-point home win against the Knicks.  What I'm most pleased to see here is that they allowed just 88 and 89 points in those games.  Note that seven of this team's last 10 losses have been by seven points or less. They too are fighting for their playoff lives as Houston's loss last night leaves Dallas in a tie for seventh (w/ Utah), one-half game ahead of the ninth place Rockets.  They need this game every bit as much as the Pistons do and that makes the points look attractive, especially considering the Mavs are 7-3 ATS this year as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points.

I mentioned Detroit's poor shooting numbers earlier. In terms of "true" shooting, which weighs free throw shooting and three-point shooting, the team is 28th in the league, ahead of only Philadelphia and the Lakers.  This is a prime letdown situation for the Pistons, who are coming off an emotional upset of Oklahoma City on Tuesday.  That 88-82 victory (were +2.5) saw them shoot the ball poorly as well. I would look for Dirk Nowitzki (just 9 for 40 L2 games) to have a bounce back performance for Dallas, who has revenge from a six-point home loss suffered last month to Detroit. This spread is too high. 8* Dallas

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  Over the last two months, the 76ers have beaten exactly one team (twice), that being Brooklyn. They have 25 losses against those two victories and clearly things remain bad in the City of Brotherly Love. But despite that, this spread looks a little "rich" for Charlotte, who admittedly did just beat the Sixers in the front end of a home and home (by 15) on Tuesday. But with "big" road games looming against the top two teams in the East (Cleveland, Toronto), I would not be the least bit surprised if the Hornets "overlooked" this contest. They've beaten Philly three times already this season, all by 15 pts or more, but I see this being the closest game of the season series. Take the points.

This will mark the most points that Charlotte has had to lay in any game this season. The previous high was 12.5, done twice, against Phoenix and the Lakers.  They split those games at the betting window and are just 20-18 ATS when favored overall. March was the franchise's best record in history, as they went 13-3 straight up, and going back at bit further they are 19-5 SU their last 24 games. I've been touting this team for much of the campaign, but I think we've reached a bit of a "tipping point" here.  I don't see Philadelphia shooting as poorly as they did on Tuesday (31.3 percent) and thus it should be a little bit closer.

Obviously, the Sixers just want this season to be over, but they do have something to play for and that's avoiding the worst single season record in league history.  This has gotten far less attention than the Warriors chase of MJ's Bulls, but if Philadelphia loses out, then they will match the 1972-73 team for the worst record in league history at 9-73 SU.  I'm sure that's on the players' minds.  Note that they were unexpectedly tough in the previous three road games, losing to Denver on a buzzer-beater, staying within three of Portland and even falling by just 12 (were +22!) at Golden State.  Unlike the Hornets, the Sixers are accustomed to this price range and are 8-7 ATS when getting at least 12.5 from the oddsmakers this season.  When getting 15 or more, they are 6-2 against the spread!  8* Philadelphia

10* Boston (10:05 ET):  The Celtics are off a bad loss here, 114-90 to the Clippers where they were outshot 52.4% to 34.8%.  That represented their lowest scoring output in more than a month; in fact, you'd have to go all the way back to a December 15th loss in Cleveland (89-77)to find the last time they were held under 90 pts in a game. It's pretty remarkable that for a two-month stretch (January 12th to March 11th), this team was held under 100 points only twice in 28 games. So, I'm fairly confident that we'll be seeing an uptick in offense here as the C's visit Portland.  Typically, when the oddsmakers are anticipating a high-scoring game (210-pt total or higher), Boston performs well as they 27-12 ATS in that situation the L3 seasons (16-9 ATS this year) including 15-5 ATS when on the road (8-4 ATS this year). Take the points.

In my latest power rankings, I have Boston rated roughly three points better than Portland, meaning this line should basically be a pick 'em and because it's not, the Celtics are a good value in the underdog role.  Now Portland has been a real "overachiever" for much of this season and I continue to "tip my cap" to the job HC Terry Stotts has done here (lost four starters from LY, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge). They are 16-3 their L19 home games (averaging 114.4 PPG L10), including a 105-93 win over Sacramento Monday night. But, I get the sense that the Blazers have "plateaued" a bit as they are only .500 (7-7 SU) in March & this is the first time all month that they are coming off consecutive victories. 

Early in the month, these teams met (in Boston) and the Celtics prevailed 116-93 as 6.5-point chalk.  Portland was hotter at the time and given the final score there, again, it shows the line here should be closer to a pick em.  The Blazers' best player, Damian Lillard, is just a 35.2% career shooter vs. Boston and has been held below 20 points in his L3 games overall. Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley actually looked like the better backcourt in that first meeting and I'm hopeful that the Celtics will be getting Jae Crowder (missed L8 games) back tonight as well. Regardless, Portland is just 2-4 SU and ATS as a home favorite of three points or less this year. 10* Boston

10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET):  I've cashed George Washington now twice in their last three games and both times they were a slight underdog that (obviously) took the game straight up. First, they won on the road at Monmouth (a #1 seed in this tournament), and did so pretty convincingly, by a score of 87-71.  Then, after I actually faded them (unsuccessfully) against Florida, I was back on the Colonials bandwagon as they won their NIT semifinal matchup with San Diego State handily, 65-46 as three-point pups. But I've also taken Valparaiso in this tournament, back when they thrashed St. Mary's in the quarterfinals, 60-44 as only 3.5-point favorites. In my analysis for that matchup, I said the Crusaders were my choice to win the NIT (thought they'd be playing Florida here) and I'm not deviating from that assertion.

Valpo won its semifinal matchup by only two points, 72-70 over BYU.  But the Horizon League regular season champs have lost only six times all year, unfortunately one of those came in the Conference Tournament (in overtime) to WI-Green Bay.  They twice lost to Wright State during the regular season, once by nine points, but other than that their largest margin of defeat all season came by only six points at Oregon.  This is a really good team.  They had a 14-point halftime lead Tuesday vs. BYU, but the offense struggled in the second half and they needed a game-winner in the final seconds just to advance. That being said, the Crusaders defense ought to be commended for holding BYU, who came in averaging over 84 PPG, to just 70.  Over the course of the season, Valpo has been quite stingy (62.4 PPG allowed) which should serve them well here against a GW side that has scored 80 or more four straight times prior to the last game. 

George Washington, of course, just faced another 'stingy' D in the form of San Diego State. The Aztecs held them to only 60 points, well below the Colonials' normal scoring average, but the problem for SDSU was that they scored only 46 themselves on what was a dreadful shooting night (28.8% overall including 3 for 22 from three-point range!). I don't see those kind of offensive struggles taking place here for Valpo, who can score in its own right (75.6 PPG) and is 10-2 ATS the L3 seasons when taking the court with just one day's rest.  Something to consider here is that Valpo has the better depth and one of GW's only seven rotation players, senior guard Joe McDonald, sprained his ankle Tuesday. That could prove to be the difference right there.  10* Valparaiso

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  I took the Warriors last night and despite them falling behind early (trailed by nine in the first half), it appeared as if they would pull out the cover when they had a 19-point fourth quarter lead. But they failed to close strong, getting outscored 18-7 over the game's final six minutes.  Still, it was a comfortable win, which is nothing new for a team outscoring its opponents by a historic 11.1 points per game this season.  Here, they draw a Utah team off a historic margin of their own, that being a 45-point victory over the sorry Lakers Monday night.  The size of that win works against the Jazz here as they are a bit overvalued at home against the defending NBA champs.  It was only earlier this month when they failed to cover in Oakland (as 14-pt dogs), losing 115-94.  Lay the short number here.

Using the line from that last meeting as a barometer, a clear case can be made that Golden State is being undervalued here. That also has to do with they are playing w/o rest, a  situation that has really not mattered to them all year as they are 16-2 straight up.  They are also 3-0 vs. the Jazz.  At this point, do I really need to run through the Warriors' exploits? All they need is a 6-2 SU finish to finish with the best single season record in NBA history, so that will keep them motivated and save for the two upcoming games vs. San Antonio, this may be the shortest line they see the rest of the way.  Yes, they come in at just 1-5 ATS their last six games overall, but they were double digit favorites in four of those non-covers and an underdog at San Antonio in the other. 

My natural reaction is to automatically fade any team coming off the kind of win the Jazz are here. In terms of class of opponent, it's really going from the "outhouse" (Lakers) to the "penthouse" (Warriors) and recall that Utah's only loss over its last five games came to Oklahoma City by 22 points.  Their last six games against the top three in the West have all resulted in double digit defeats, in fact the closest they have been in any of those games is 18 points. For a team that sometimes struggles to score (only 97.9 PPG), keeping pace with the Warriors will be a chore. 10* Golden State

8* Nevada (9:00 ET):  This is Game 2 of the CBI Finals, a best 2 of 3 series that saw Morehead State draw "first blood" (at home) on Monday. It was a close game, however, with Nevada covering as 5.5-pt dogs (number was bet up) in an 86-83 final.  Back in Reno, I have no problem laying points with the Wolfpack, who are 14-3 SU at home this season (avg MOV = 10.2 points per game). Plus, last year was just the second time in the history of this event (dates back to 2008) where the Final did not go the full three games. The vast majority of games in the history of this best 2 out of 3 format in the CBI have been won by the home team, so I'll look for that trend to continue here & Nevada force a deciding game on Friday (which would be here in Reno as well).

Nevada actually outshot Morehead State on Monday, connecting on over 50 percent of their field goal attempts, including 7 of 16 from three-point range.  It had to be a little bit demoralizing to hold Morehead State to just 4 of 16 shooting from behind the arc, yet still give up 86 points.  Still though, I can't see the Eagles being that prolific tonight on the road where they average only 70.2 PPG for the season.  They have pulled upsets over both Siena and Ohio in this tournament, but still are only 8-9 straight up in "true" road games.  They have been a very solid bet plus the points on the road (9-2-1 ATS), but this is a pretty short number even for a team that has won 11 of its last 12. Morehead State never led by more than seven in Game 1 and there's a big difference between Nevada on the road (5-10 SU) vs. at home (14-3 SU).

As a home favorite, the Wolfpack are 11-1 SU this season. That lone loss came in the regular season finale (vs. New Mexico) as a one-point choice.  Coming off a SU loss, this team has been an excellent bet to bounce back as they are 7-4 ATS, winning by an average margin of 11.8 points per game!  On just one day's rest, they are also 3-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, winning by an average margin of 21.3 points per game.  Meanwhile, outside of games where they've gotten to enjoy at least three days rest, Morehead State is only 9-9 SU while posting a negative scoring differential. 8* Nevada

10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET):  We're getting Minnesota, off a win, taking only a short number, so it's probably a great time to fade in this situation. Especially with the Clippers having seemingly "found their groove" w/ B2B impressive wins over the Nuggets & Celtics. Both wins came by double digits and Monday saw them really thrash a good Boston team, 114-90 as four-point home favorites.  The T'wolves victory on Monday came at the expense of lowly Phoenix, 121-116, and they failed to cover as six-point home chalk. While a respectable 5-4 SU their last nine games overall, the T'wolves are just 7-17 SU off a SU win this year and have posted consecutive victories only twice since X-Mas.  Lay the short number here.

Those concerned about potentially laying points w/ the Clips should take solace in the team's impressive 6-1 ATS record this season as road chalk of 3.5 to 6 points. Over the last three seasons, they are 19-5 ATS in that same price range (as road team) and going back further we find them at 45-16 ATS L61!  While they just went 1-4 SU on their most recent road trip, that included games vs. both San Antonio and Golden State. A return to Staples Center was just what "the doctor ordered" as they swept the three games, allowing just 94, 90 and 90 points. Now they may not even need to be quite that stingy again here considering the T'wolves are allowing 106 points per game this season, including an an average of 110.2 the L5 games. Opponents are shooting 47% against them overall.

Believe it or not, but Minnesota did beat the Clippers (in LA!), 108-102 (as 10.5-pt dogs) back in early February. That win snapped a 14-game losing streak to the Clips overall as they shot better than 50 percent from the floor. But while Minny is a surprising 11th in offensive efficiency, they are 27th on the defensive end and that's a bad matchup with a Clippers team that is 6th in offensive efficiency & 7th in defensive efficiency. All three games this year have been relatively close, but I anticipate a different story here as for whatever reason the T'wolves have been really lousy at home this year, going not just 13-24 straight up (to be expected), but also 13-23-1 ATS. 10* LA Clippers

8* Golden State (10:35 ET):  The Warriors have seen their ATS record go down in recent weeks, but they appear to be undervalued in this spot as the Wizards come calling. Yes, Golden State has failed to cover in four of their last five, but in three of those they were DD faves (as they are here) and another was at San Antonio.  What I don't like about this matchup for Washington is that they are likely to make the mistake of attempting to play at the Warriors' pace (both teams are in the top six in terms of pace of play).  They don't have near the defensive capabilities (104.4 PPG allowed) to keep the NBA champs in check, so don't be surprised when this one turns into a blowout. Lay the points.

Golden State averages 115.5 points per game. At home, their average margin of victory is 15.3 PPG.  When these teams met in D.C. nearly two months ago (Feb 3), the Warriors won by 13, 134-121 as 9.5-point chalk. Using that number as a baseline, they are underpriced for this rematch.  Obviously, GSW will continue to be motivated by their chase of Chicago's all-time single season record (72 wins).  A win tonight matches last year's total of 67, which means that they and the Bulls would be the only teams to win 67+ games in consecutive seasons. We don't have to worry about GSW winning here (35-0 SU at home this year) as they have 47 straight wins as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more and they should carve the Wizards defense up.

Washington's move to a faster pace hasn't really worked out this year even though they are now one game above .500.  But they're still only 9th in the East and this is a matchup with one of the five teams that plays faster than them.  I think that a lot of people fail to recognize that the Warriors rank fifth in defensive efficiency. As a road underdog of 12.5 points or more, the Wiz are just 4-60 straight up including a non-cover their only time in this role this season, which was a 19-pt loss at San Antonio back on December 16th.  Washington has been playing a lot of bad teams recently, including a win over the Lakers two nights ago, and clearly this is a big step up.  8* Golden State

10* George Washington (9:00 ET):  The Colonials surprised me in their quarterfinal matchup vs. Florida (playing its third straight road game), winning 82-77 as a 1.5-point fave. Of course, they didn't surprise me when I took them against Monmouth and they delivered an 87-71 outright victory. Their semifinal opponent here is San Diego State, who has gotten to play all three of its NIT games to this point at home and won them all by double digits.  I concede that the fact that the Aztecs have dropped only three games since the New Year, all by five points or less, but remember that the Mountain West was historically weak this season. I have these teams rated pretty much dead even, so taking the points is the way to go.

Before this tournament got underway, San Diego State was just 7-6 SU vs. non-conference foes, clearly an inferior record when compared to GW's 11-2 mark.  In comparison to GW, SDSU's path to MSG has been easier.  That coupled with the easier conference slate has me believing that the oddsmakers have mispriced the teams in this one.  The Aztecs have been favored in every game since the start of February, which is perhaps why the oddsmakers have them laying points again here. But note they are only 13-11 ATS as chalk this year, making them basically a coinflip proposition.  Their offensive production has been way above normal here in the NIT and that's one trend that I do not expect to continue. 

GW, meanwhile, is a team known for its scoring. They average 75.9 PPG and have been at 82 points or higher in all three NIT games so far.  In fact, only once in their last six games have the Colonials not scored at least 80 pts.  That's a lot when you consider SDSU only averages 66 PPG.  Yes, the Aztecs have the edge defensively (2nd in efficiency).  But we just watched GW score 82 points against a Florida team that ranked inside the top 25 in efficiency.  Don't be surprised if free throw shooting helps decide this one as GW is an impressive 75.1% from the charity stripe while San Diego State is at just 68%.  In the end, I expect the dog to take this one outright. 10* George Washington

10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET):  The Nets didn't fare too well last night, losing 110-99 in Miami. Though I had the Under (won!), I wasn't the least bit surprised at the margin of victory there either.  I think it's important to recall, however, that Brooklyn had won its previous two games (Cleveland, Indiana) outright.  As I pointed out in yday's analysis, those games did come at home, but tonight's road game is a drop in class from last night as they take on a Magic squad that had lost six in a row before pulling an upset their last time out, 111-89 over Chicago as 6.5-pt dogs. They're due for a letdown off that result as I still would not trust them in this price range seeing as they've lost outright two of the last three times they've been a favorite.

Teams playing in the second night of a back to back are often undervalued, especially if playing on the road.  It's highly unlikely that Orlando will shoot 57.1% here like Miami did last night vs. the Nets, so right there we're getting a bit of a reprieve.  Also, Brooklyn had to withstand a career-high 27 points from the Heat's Hassan Whiteside last night and they turned the ball over 20 times (leading to 23 Miami points). Again, I do not foresee Brooklyn being so bad again here nor their opponent playing so well.   Lost in the loss last night was that the Nets shot 53.2 percent.  Offensively, this team has done quite well of late. Only once in March have they been held below 99 points. That makes them attractive at this price range.

Orlando has been playing without its two leading scorers for the past several games.  It does appear as if Victor Oladipo is going to be back here, but Nikola Vucevic's status remains up in the air (doubtful).  Again, this team is just 4-12 SU in March.  They are just 7-13 SU after scoring 105 or more points this season.  They won't match their near 54% shooting from the last game and while they are 3-0 vs. the Nets so far this season, two of those wins were by seven points or less.  This team has not won B2B games since before the All-Star Break. Even if they manage to do so here, there's now a margin they have to deal with and that's simply too big of an ask for a team still 13 games below .500. 10* Brooklyn

8* Columbia (7:00 ET):  It's come down to this for the CIT Championship, the first of FIVE tournaments to be decided this week. UC Irvine has been the road team in every game during this event, the first two (at North Dakota, LA Lafayette) being close victories and then the Anteaters caught a massive break on Sunday when Coastal Carolina's point guard was arrested the night before the semifinal matchup. Meanwhile, Columbia has enjoyed the benefit of playing all of its CIT games at home (team actually PAY to host in this event!). The Lions have won two of its three games in blowout fashion, including Sunday's semifinal vs. NJIT, 80-65 as nine-point chalk. I'm stunned to see how low the number is for the final and will gladly lay it.

Getting this game at home is a pretty big deal for the Ivy League contingent. Columbia is 17-4 SU at home this season w/ an average margin of victory of 11.2 points per game. They had little problem w/ New Jersey Tech on Sunday, jumping out to double digit lead at halftime and never really looking back.  It was the second CIT game where they broke the 80-point barrier, not to mention the sixth time they've done it in the L10 games.  This is one of the best Columbia teams in history as they've already established program highs for most overall wins in a season (24) and non-conference wins (14).  The Lions have now won 100 games in the six seasons under HC Kyle Smith.

As alluded to above, UC Irvine was a tremendous beneficiary of Coastal Carolina losing their starting point guard 24 hours before tip off.  As a result, the Chanticleers shot only 27.4% from the field. That was after the Anteaters' previous opponent (LA Lafayette) shot just 32.9%.  I find it hard to believe that Columbia will be so inept offensively in this one. This is also UC Irvine's fourth consecutive road game.  They had to do that once during the regular season, at Oregon of all places, and ended up losing that game by double digits.  This marks the first time all season that UC Irvine has won three consecutive road games. Again, their first two wins in this event came by a combined four points.  8* Columbia

8* Dallas (9:05 ET): Oh my. What has gone wrong w/ the Mavericks? Losers of 10 of their last 12, they are now a season-worst three games below .500 after getting thrashed in Sacramento Sunday afternoon (gave up 133 points!).  It would be quite easy to simply pin things on the loss of Chandler Parsons for the year, but consider that w/o him, Dirk Nowitzki (rest), Deron Williams and Devin Harris, the team still hung tough and covered against Golden State on Friday night.  Nowitzki and Harris were both back in the lineup yday, but combined for only 25 points.  But forget about that, it was a season-worst effort on the defensive end that killed the Mavs Sunday as they allowed the Kings to shoot an unfathomable 62.5 percent from the field.  I expect pride to kick in tonight in a game they "must have" in Denver.

As for the Nuggets, they too lost yday, 105-90 at the Clippers.  The team was off B2B wins, but considering who they had played (Sixers and Lakers), that really shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a little surprising is that this team has been able to string together a 31-43 overall SU record this year. Given the state of the roster, I would have thought 30 wins would be a bit of a stretch at the start of the season.  Generally, they've been a competitive bunch, but are only 2-5 ATS their last seven games and I do not believe they should be the favorite here. As a favorite, they are just 7-8 ATS for the year. Consider that in a previous visit from Dallas earlier this month, the Nuggets were four-point underdogs. Granted, they did win that game (by two, in overtime) but there's been an overreaction by the marketplace here.

The Dallas defense has to start improving if the team is to make the playoffs.  Entering today, they are just one-half game behind idle Houston for eighth place in the West, so you can see the importance winning this one carries. Fortunately for the defense, Denver comes in off a dreadful offensive showing vs. the Clippers as the starting five combined to shoot a woeful 22.4 percent from the field.  That starting five did not include Kenneth Faried, who has missed the last six games. Remember that the Nuggets are also w/o Danilo Gallinari. Nowitzki, who had been hot prior to last night, should rekindle some of the "old fire" and lead his team to victory in this one. 8* Dallas

10* Under Nets/Heat (7:35 ET):  Brooklyn is in off B2B upsets, first over Cleveland, then Indiana, but those games were at home and this one is on the road.  The road has been unkind to the Nets all season long as they are just 7-27 SU, averaging 98.4 PPG. But I have little interest in laying the double digit number in this one. Instead, I'll focus on the total as both teams have been exceeding their season-long average in scoring recently.  Brooklyn is now averaging 105 PPG its last five games after the 120-110 win over Indiana on Saturday and has gone over 100 pts in seven straight games, a real shocker. As for Miami, well, I've been through this before as their games have become way more high scoring on both ends than we've been used to seeing.  That changes here. Take the Under.

After watching them go Over in eight straight contests, I went w/ the Heat Under their last time out and they complied in a 108-97 win over Orlando.  Still though, that's significantly more points than what they generally score. The trend began at the start of the month and only once in March (at San Antonio) have they been held under 100 pts. Credit the acquisition of Joe Johnson for that. But also take note that they still only average 99.5 PPG for the year. Defense would be my concern if I were at Heat fan, however, as they are allowing 103.6 PPG their last five, about a 5.5 PPG increase from their season average. Remember that for much of the year, this was the top Under team in the league. They are one of just two teams (Utah is the other) that neither scores nor allows 100 PPG. The amount of scoring we've seen in recent Heat games is due to tail off and helping us here is that we're now starting to see some really high totals (like this one tonight). 

  The Over is a perfect 3-0 this season when the Nets & Heat meet, but consider that none of those three totals closed higher than 195 points, which is a far lower threshold than what we have here.  In only one of the three games were more than 202 total points scored.  I don't see Brooklyn matching its hot shooting from the last game (54.5%!), nor coming anywhere close to its point total from that one either, which was the third most they'd scored in regulation in any game this season.  Simply put, we're due to start seeing some major offensive regression from both sides here.  10* Under Nets/Heat

8* Tennessee Tech (3:00 ET): As if there weren't enough teams getting postseason invites, we now have the Vegas 16 taking place this week over a three-day span at Mandalay Bay. Actually, it appears as if there "weren't enough teams" as despite being called "The Vegas 16," there's only eight schools competing here.  The first two are Tennessee Tech (out of the OVC) and Old Dominion (out of C-USA).  Of the two, ODU was closer to the actual NCAA Tournament as they fell to Middle Tennessee (and we know what the Blue Raiders did to Michigan State) by only two points in the C-USA Champ Game. Tennessee Tech, meanwhile, fell victim to the stunning run of 8-seed Austin Peay in their conference tournament. My take is that the number here is simply way too many points to be laying in this spot. Take the points.

This matchup will certainly be an interesting contrast of styles. Tennessee Tech is a team led by it offense as they average an impressive 78.6 points per game, which had them just outside the top 40 nationally.  But the regular season didn't end well as the Golden Eagles dropped three of five and got a bad draw in the OVC Tourney as they got the fifth seed despite finishing in a three-way tie for the second best record in the conference. (OVC is split into two divisions & division winners are guaranteed top two spots).  I have no unearthly idea how to explain what happened against Austin Peay, who scored 92 pts on 54.2% shooting led by a 37-21 game (both career highs) from Chris Horton.  One thing that's good, however, is that the Golden Eagles are 6-2 ATS this year following a SU loss.

Old Dominion is led by its defense, which gives up just 61.8 PPG.  Compared to Tennessee Tech, the Monarchs finished the year in much stronger fashion as they'd won seven in a row before the two-point loss to MTSU (game decided on free throws in closing seconds). But that works against ODU here as the win streak has only served to inflate this line to heights it should not be at.  I do not see them being able to keep pace w/ the scoring of Tennessee Tech here as the Golden Eagles should bounce back from their worst three-point shooting game of the year (vs. Austin Peay) where they went just 5 for 29.  8* Tennessee Tech

10* Coastal Carolina (9:00 ET):  The Chanticleers got a bad break with their starting point guard Shivaughn Wiggins getting arrested last night and he will not play here.  But I'm still not sure that UC Irvine deserves to be favored. The Anteaters have posted a pair of close road wins in the CIT so far, one coming in overtime. That was 89-86 over North Dakota and then came a one-point win at LA Lafayette Wednesday.  They've played one less game than Coastal Carolina in this tournament and while having the home court edge is not necessarily indicative that you're the better team (teams PAY to host in this tourney!), it is an advantage nonetheless.  Take the points with the home dog.

Coastal Carolina has played all three of their CIT games at home. They beat Mercer (65-57), New Hampshire (71-62) and then Grand Canyon (60-58).  As you can tell, these wins have been close as well and the Chanticleers needed a pretty miraculous rally to win the quarterfinal matchup with Grand Canyon (closed game on an 8-0 run).  But they were favored in all three games and are 14-3 SU here at home this season w/ an average margin of victory of 15.2 points per game.  Yes, missing their starting PG is a terrible blow, but it is one that they can still overcome.  There has been an overreaction by both the linesmakers and public for this one.

UC Irvine had to deal with the absence of 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye in the last game and while he's been upgraded to probable here, his leg figures to still give him issues.  Though a remarkable 16-7 SU away from home this season, the Anteaters average margin of victory in those games is just 1.5 points per game.  It's pretty remarkable that they have won all nine games this year in which they have been a road favorite, but they are 0-2 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points.   Since Thanksgiving, CCU has lost only two times by more than six points and both of those games took place on the road. 10* Coastal Carolina

10* Over Notre Dame/North Carolina (8:49 ET):  How in the world has Notre Dame made it this far?  They have trailed late in all three of their Tournament games, coming back from double digits to beat Michigan, needing a last second tip in to overcome Stephen F Austin and then closing on an 8-0 run to beat Wisconsin in the final 26 seconds (had not led previously!).  Consider that the Fighting Irish came into the Tourney having dropped three of five w/ all three losses coming by at least 18 points.  One of the two wins during that time saw them erase an 18-point deficit against Duke, a game that went to overtime. The step up in class here is big as they take on top-seeded North Carolina, who thrashed them in the ACC Tournament by a score of 78-47.  It will almost certainly be closer this time around, but rather than taking the points, I feel the Over is the much sharper play here.

Notre Dame is all offense and no defense.  Seriously. They rank 9th in the country in offensive efficiency, but are a ghastly 154th defensively.  Only six teams in this tournament are worse at defending the three-point line and collectively those six teams can be labeled as "the 16 seeds."  Playing a team that is 51st in tempo nationally, averaging 82.9 points per game on 47.9% shooting isn't likely to do wonders for those defensive numbers. At the same time, one reason that I feel the Fighting Irish are far more likely to competitive here than they were earlier this month is that they will almost certainly shoot better than the 30 percent we saw from them the last time. Even in their 80-76 win over the Tar Heels in South Bend earlier this year, the Irish were at just 34.8% from the field.  In the two games combined, they have gone 8 for 35 from three-point range.  That's going to improve here.

Going from the "snail's pace" of Wisconsin to North Carolina is a big change for Notre Dame and one that clearly will result in more scoring all-around.  UNC comes off a monster game, one where they scored 101 points in a wire to wire thrashing of Indiana.  They have scored at least 83 points in all three Tourney games and note that first round opponent Florida Gulf Coast ranks very similar to ND in terms of defensive efficiency. Both previous matchups this season did go Under, but the total here is lower, placing the value on the Over. 10* Over Notre Dame/North Carolina

10* Dallas (6:05 ET):  Though it's ever so slightly, I'm surprised that the Kings are favored here as my own personal power ratings suggest that this line should be a pick em.  That difference may seem somewhat negligible, but considering the desperate state Dallas should be in here, they are a strong value not having to lay points.  With Utah winning last night (I was on the Jazz!), the Mavs now find themselves on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the playoffs as they are one-half game back of the two teams tied for seventh.  This is due to them dropping nine of their last 11, but as I've outlined in taking them plus the points several times recently, most of those losses have been close, including the one at Golden State Friday where I cashed them as large underdogs. Here, we're looking at an outright win.

Sacramento is off a rare win here.  The win came Friday, at home, vs. Phoenix.  That was a game they were favored to win by 7.5 and prevailed easily 116-94.  But not all opponents are as bad as the Suns.  Wins have been few and far between for the Kings ever since the All-Star Break and they have not won B2B games since that time.  Last time they were at home, favored and off a win, they lost outright to New Orleans 123-108 on March 16th.  Defensively, this team has major issues as they are dead last in the league in points allowed, allowing 109 per game.  Not since a five-game win streak in mid-January has Sacramento gone B2B games allowing less than 100 points. So after the win over Phoenix two nights ago, I expect their poor defense to revert back to their "usual ways" here. 

Dallas will be w/o PG Deron WIlliams here, but he didn't play Friday vs. Golden State and they still hung tough.  They also didn't have Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons against the team with the league's best record and still lost by only eight.  While Parsons is out for the year, both Harris and Nowitzki will be back tonight.  Nowitzki has played well recently (he simply rested vs. GSW) and so too has Wesley Matthews, who is 17 of 28 from three-point range the L3 games.  Sacramento might be 8-1 ATS L9 vs. Dallas (3-0 this year), but that trend changes here is a "must-win" spot for the Mavs.  10* Dallas

8* Over Syracuse/Virginia (6:05 ET):  This is a (very) low total, so I'm not really surprised to see the Over having attracted so much early "love" (number immediately moved a few points). While many times, such a line move can lead to some value in going "the other way," in this instance I'm inclined to agree with the majority. These ACC rivals went Over against each other in the regular season, in what ended up being a 73-65 Virginia win in Charlottesville, and the number here is lower.  While the Cavaliers may not be able to match their hot shooting from that game, as I argued in my winning Over play for their game vs. Iowa State, the efficiency of their offense is greatly underrated (8th in the country).  Take the Over.

UVA comes into the Elite 8 having averaged over 80 PPG in the Tournament. That's really impressive and something not being talked about enough.  They have now shot at least 51% from the floor in six of their last seven games and are above 55% in the Tournament!  Normally, I might be inclined to call for some regression to the mean, but note the Cavs are shooting 49.3% overall for the year, including 40.3% from three-point range.  They had little difficulty in carving up Iowa State Friday as they assisted on a phenomenal 81% of their made field goals and scored 52 points in the paint.  Even by their standards, this is a low total. The lowest total all season in a UVA game was 122 points and they are 10-3 Over their L13 neutral court games when the O/U line is between 120 and 129.5 points.

Syracuse has held its three Tournament opponents thus far to an average of just 53.7 PPG and hasn't given up more than 60 in any game.  But let's also remember that they've played nothing but double digit seeds (10, 15 and 11) to this point.  This is a big step up in class for the Orange, whose 2-3 zone was carved up by Virginia in the regular season meeting to the tune of 56.8% shooting, the highest percentage allowed by a Jim Boeheim defense in four seasons. At the same time, I would expect Syracuse's own offensive number to improve here as they shot only 38.9% from the field in the regular season matchup. This could be the lowest total for any Orange game all season and the regular season saw the Over go 5-0 if the number was below 130 pts. 8* Over Syracuse/Virginia

10* Under Villanova/Kansas (8:45 ET):   Villanova's last game was an interesting one if you like offense. They absolutely dominated Miami (won 92-69 as four-point chalk) despite allowing the 'Canes to shoot 53.2% for the game (and that number was closer to 60% in the first half!). Of course, Nova's own offense was quite prolific as they shot an insane 62.7% from the field and in three tournament games they're now averaging 88 points per game on almost 60% shooting overall. After staying Under in both the Big East Championship Game (loss to Seton Hall) and their 1st round NCAA game vs. UNC Asheville, the Wildcats last two games have both soared past the total and the Over is now 10-2 their last 12 games overall. But I look for a different story to unfold here vs. Kansas.  Take the Under.

The top-seeded Jayhawks are no slouch offensively either, but their last two games have both stayed Under thanks to impressive defensive performances vs. UConn and Maryland, formidable foes.  Note that Kansas' defensive prowess is by no means limited to the Tournament as you would have to go all the way back to January to find the last time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the floor. Incredibly, only two opponents have shot better than 45% during that time! As a result, the Under is 10-5-1 their last 16 games.  This team ranks fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing just 0.92 points per possession.  Both Maryland and UConn were held to 12 points fewer than their respective season averages against KU.

Villanova happens to rank 11th in defensive efficiency, so the kind of shooting they allowed to Miami is pretty rare.  It also says something that they only gave up 69 points in the game as six straight opponents have now been held under the 70-point threshold ('Nova allows just 63.3 PPG for the season). I expect possessions to be at a premium in this one, as the stakes are so high, and Kansas is 5-1 Under as a neutral court favorite of three points or less. (Under is 14-8 in Nova's L22 neutral court games as well).  This is a pretty high number by both teams' standards as far as the O/U line is concerned.  10* Under Villanova/Kansas

8* Utah (8:05 ET):  While my own personal power ratings say this might be a bit of an overlay, that doesn't take into account that this is just a brutal spot for Minnesota, who won in double overtime last night in Washington. I was fortunate enough to be on the T'wolves in that one as they came from behind to defeat the Wizards 132-129 as nine-point dogs. It was their fifth consecutive cover, but here is where that streak comes to an end as we know this team has really struggled ATS at home this season (13-21) and Utah is going to be in a surly mood considering what happened to them in their most recent game (lost 113-91 in Oklahoma City). Lay the points here in a game the Jazz simply must have.

Utah enters the day tied for eighth in the Western Conference thanks to Dallas losing last night at Golden State.  While they have spent much of the year on the "outside looking in" when it comes to playoff position, Utah has the fifth best point differential in the West and by that metric should have 39 wins, rather than 35.  These two Northwest Division rivals have split a pair of games so far this season, each winning at home, but the key to me is that the Jazz are the far superior defensive outfit as they rank #2 in the league in points allowed (96.6 per game) while the T'wolves are 24th (106.1).  After facing the ultra-efficient Thunder, I expect major improvement on the defensive end from Utah tonight, plus this price range has surprisingly been just fine for them as they've won the last five times as road chalk of -6.5 to -9 points, including a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS mark this season.

You just have to wonder what Minnesota will have left in the tank here after leaving it all on the court last night?  Going from road to home, without rest, has not been a favorable situation for them this year as they are 1-3 SU/ATS while being outscored by 7.0 PPG.  Rarely do we find the T'wolves coming off B2B victories, but the only two times it has happened since the end of November, they've lost the next time out by double digits both times. Overall, this team is just 2-11 SU in the second game of a back to back, getting outscored by 8.8 points per game. 8* Utah

10* Indiana (6:05 ET):  Brooklyn is a bad team coming off a rare SU win (over Cleveland!), so now would be the proper time to fade as this number just looks too low to me.  The Nets offense has exploded over the last five games (108.0 PPG), but I think that it's critical to remember that they average only 98.0 over the course of the season and tonight's opponent, Indiana, just held two bad teams under 85 points in a pair of easy victories.  The Pacers are currently tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference, only two games clear of ninth, so they don't dare "fool around" and drop this one.  I'm laying the points.

Now the one area of concern here for Indiana is that Paul George (currently listed as a "game-time decision") may not play here as he made an early exit (bruised right leg) in the team's 92-84 home win over undermanned New Orleans Thursday night.  Given what we've seen from the Pacers defensively in the last two games, George's potential absence doesn't scare me off as Brooklyn would rate right between New Orleans and Philadelphia, neither of whom was able to shoot better than 42% against Indiana. The Nets are just 27th in terms of offensive efficiency and as I said due for a decline in scoring almost immediately.  They are actually worse defensively (28th in efficiency) and it was pretty shocking to see them hold Cleveland to only 95 points after their previous five opponents averaged 112.2 PPG against them. Simply put, with or without George, the Pacers should find ways to score in this one.

Following a SU win, Brooklyn is a woeful 3-16 SU their next time out and getting outscored by nearly seven points per game.  Twice we've caught them in this role in March and both times (at Chicago, at Minnesota), they lost by double digits.  This is a better opponent that they're facing here and I don't think home court advantage is enough to counteract their season-long struggles as the team is still being outscored by almost 5.0 PPG at the Barclays Center this year and has a 13-24 SU record.  10* Indiana

10* Oklahoma (6:05 ET):  So, I had Duke rated higher than Oregon and while my big Sweet 16 play may not have panned out, it stands to reason that I would clearly have Oklahoma rated higher than the Ducks and I do.  I feel that Thursday's misfire was more about overrating the Blue Devils than any kind of misread on the Ducks, who remember failed to cover in their second round game vs. St. Joe's (trailed by seven late in the second half). Meanwhile, OU had not done much covering of late, that was until a very impressive performance against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16 where they won 77-63 as 2.5-pt chalk. That snapped a seven-game ATS slide and I believe the Sooners continue to "get some back" here en route to their first Final Four appearance since 2002! '

Oregon has won a season-high 11 games in a row and they've covered in seven of the past nine victories.  However, what's interesting is that they are the only team in action Saturday that has not been ranked #1 in the human polls at any point this season. Now, I'm not one to ever put a ton of stock into what the pollsters say, it just so happens that the computers tend to have an even less favorable look of the Ducks. They've clearly been "at their best" of late w/ a 19-point average margin of victory the L5 games.  But certainly the Pac 12 can be called into question at this point (none of the other teams survived the 1st weekend) and I feel that them being favored here is an overreaction to what they did against an admittedly short-handed Duke team.

One thing that Oregon should be scared about here is that Oklahoma's Buddy Hield was not necessarily at his "best" Thursday against A&M.  The likely Player of the Year scored only 17 points, but all other Sooners starters were in double figures as well.  I think that after all the struggles at the betting window down the stretch, OU currently represents an excellent "buy low" opportunity here.  They actually average more points per game than does Oregon and are incredibly prolific from three-point range (42.6%!).  The key here could end up being defense and the Sooners rank 21 spots higher in terms of efficiency (14 vs. 35) on that end of the court.  Wrong team favored. 10* Oklahoma

8* Dallas (10:35 ET):  The Mavericks have treated me kindly in each of their last two games (both covers vs. Portland), so why not look to make it three in a row tonight as they are catching a big number in Golden State?  Now these teams just met last Friday and it was the Warriors coming out on top, in Dallas, by a score of 130-112 as nine-point chalk. While the win and cover there improved the NBA Champs' record vs. Dallas to 9-2 - both SU and ATS - the last 11 meetings, it should be noted that it was a three-point game midway through the fourth quarter.  Having lost 8 out of their last 10 overall, the Mavs have fallen a game below .500 and they are now dangerously close to missing the playoffs (just one-half game ahead of ninth place Utah).  I don't see them getting blown out here. Take the points.

Golden State is off yet another big win, so of course the line here is going to be a little bit inflated.  They beat the Clippers 114-98 Wednesday night, a high profile TV win, so there may be a bit of "letdown" in store for tonight.  Yes, they continue to "chase history" as in the 1996 Bulls single season record of 72 wins. But with seven of their next eight games coming here at home and two games "to spare," I think that the reality of this happening is going to settle in, which leads to complacency. As a favorite of more than 12.5 points this season, the Warriors are just 10-9 ATS.  Steph Curry has shown recent signs of being human by going just 7 of 31 from three-point range the last three games.

How can Dallas compete here?  Well, Dirk Nowitzki has been hot lately, averaging 26.1 PPG his last nine. Remember that the Mavs did deal the Warriors one of their seven losses this season, albeit that game came when Curry was out of the lineup. But still, they competed hard for 3.5 quarters against them last week and taking a more generous spread has enticed me.  Including Wednesday's loss in Portland, six of Dallas' last eight losses have been by seven points or less.  8* Dallas

10* Indiana (9:55 ET): North Carolina is a hot team right now as they've won seven straight and many now consider them to be the "co-favorite" (along w/ Kansas) to cut down the nets next week.  But I'm not sure any team has a better win so far in this tournament than Indiana considering the manner that they downed chic Final Four pick Kentucky in the last round. Before we go crowning the Tar Heels anything just yet, let's remember that despite those final scores, they were somewhat tooth and nail w/ both Florida Gulf Coast and Providence into the second half. I think this is an overlay as Sweet 16 underdogs of more than three points have tended to excel through the years.  Take the points.

All of the #1 seeds won their first round game by double digits, as was to be expected, but North Carolina was the only one that struggled somewhat.  The Heels were up by just one at the half against Florida Gulf Coast and actually outrebounded for the game!  Very scary is the fact that they allowed FGCU to shoot 60 percent from the floor in the first half!  Against Providence, they again pulled away late for a somewhat misleading final score. That game was tied with just over 15 minutes to go.  Indiana is going to be a far "taller order" here as not only do the Hoosiers come in averaging 82.3 points per game (11th nationally, tied w/ UNC), but they are 4-2 straight up and against the spread this season when taking points.

Of course, it was a win of the outright variety in the last round for the Hoosiers as they really looked impressive in dispatching of Kentucky by a score of 73-67 (were +3.5).  They held UK to its second lowest scoring output of the season and did so by holding them to just 35.4% shooting in the half court.  North Carolina is not a great shooting team, at least from three-point range where they're just 30.3 percent for the year outside of Chapel Hill.   Indiana actually got by w/ a relatively subpar effort on the offensive end themselves vs. Kentucky (28.6% from 3-pt range), but if you recall also scored 99 points in their opening round contest vs. Chattanooga. This is a team that has lost just two games by more than five points all year. 10* Indiana

10* Under Magic/Heat (8:05 ET):  Ok, I'm going to try this again.  Miami has now gone Over in eight straight games and I've (unsuccessfully) tried to buck that trend in the last two, only to see my bet thwarted in the final seconds both times.  Tonight, it's a home date w/ division rival Orlando, the only team in the Southeast that has no realistic shot at making the playoffs.  These Floridian foes actually have not met since the day after X-Mas and while that game did go Over the total, the number was also significantly lower than what it is here - by about 18 points! So there's added value right there in going Under the total here as eventually the amount of overall scoring we're seeing in Heat games has to go down. How about tonight? Take the Under.

Remember that Miami, for much of the year, was the top Under team in the league. Despite the recent Over surge, they still are the only team in the Eastern Conference that neither scores nor allows over 100 PPG for the year.  (Utah is actually the only other team in the league that can claim that).  The addition of Joe Johnson has been what's keyed the offensive resurgence, and while that's been nice, what about the regression on the defensive end?  That is what has cost them in all of their recent losses and they've now allowed 108.0 PPG over their last five, which is nearly ten more than their season average.  Again, totals this high have been exceptionally rare for the Heat all season.

Luckily for Miami is the fact that Orlando is not a good offensive team as they come in averaging just 99.1 PPG on the road and are just 26th in terms of efficiency.  Now, they have lost five in a row and the defense was torched for 118 points by the Pistons Wednesday night, but I don't see Miami shooting 53% from the floor here like Detroit did.  The Heat only scored 88 points their last game (loss at San Antonio) and still rank in the bottom four in the league in terms of pace of play.  Orlando is 10-3 Under its last 13 road games when the total is 210 points or higher.  10* Under Magic/Heat

8* Charlotte (7:35 ET):  Even with the benefit of home court advantage, I'm not sure that Detroit should be the favorite here as the Hornets have been the best team in the East since February 1st (going 18-5 straight up!) and league-wide only the Spurs and Warriors have been better during that time.  Of course, Charlotte just stunned San Antonio (rallied back to win after trailing 30-7) earlier this week, and then showed me something by avoiding what could have been an obvious letdown (although they didn't cover) by winning at Brooklyn the following night.  Having just beaten the Pistons by 15 earlier this month, which improved their head to head record to 7-2 SU/ATS L9 aganist them, the road team looks like a great play tonight.

Now Detroit comes into this game on a four-game win streak and is an impressive 23-12 SU at home this year (+6.0 PPG) including 5-1 ATS when laying three points or less. But this win streak of theirs has come at the expense of nothing but bad teams (Sacramento, Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Orlando to be precise) and all four games were here at home.  They did lose to Atlanta here the last time they hosted a likely playoff adversary. Though their offensive numbers have been way up in recent days, it's important to note that in terms of "true shooting" numbers, the Pistons are third from the bottom in the league (ahead of only the Kobe-led Lakers and Philadelphia).  So it is their recent offensive production that is more likely to regress than Charlotte's.

Speaking of Charlotte's offense, they have topped 100 pts in 10 of the last 13 games and the three-pointer has been a big weapon for them as they've already set franchise marks for most three-pointers made and attempted in a single season.  Their straight up road record doesn't concern me at all as they have a winning ATS record when taking points away from home.  They are also one of just five teams in the entire league in rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency (Spurs, Warriors, Cavaliers, Clippers).  That's good enough for me here.  8* Charlotte

10* Over Iowa St/Virginia (7:10 ET):  This will be billed as a "clash of styles" as Iowa State averages 81.8 points per game (15th most nationally) while Virginia allows just 57.0 PPG (6th fewest).  However, let's not allow the fact that BOTH teams here rank in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency to be overlooked. So the possibility of a relatively high scoring game is certainly there and furthermore, I find it interesting that of all the Sweet 16 games, this is the only one that is receiving overwhelming support on the Under. That's unusual to see so many tickets in one game being written on the Under (public traditionally 'loves' Overs), so this is the rare shot to be contrarian and call for an Over. From ISU's perspective, this is certainly a low number.

Virginia has allowed more than its season average in three of the past four games. The exception would be the first round game vs. 16-seed Hampton, who was completely outmatched.  In the second round game vs. Butler, they gave up 69 points and the game easily went Over the total.  Now, the Under remains 9-3 their L12 games overall and this looks like it will close as one of the highest totals for any Hoos game this season.  But consider that Iowa State team will likely be the best offensive outfit they've faced all year long.  I know the Cavs hosted Oakland (#1 in PPG nationally) earlier this season, but the Golden Grizzlies are just 19th in efficiency, meaning they tend to need more possessions that does ISU. Speaking of offense, UVA is underrated in that department as this year's team averaged 71 PPG, a high for the Tony Bennett era.  They are sixth in efficiency, averaging almost 1.2 points per possessions and have shot better than 52% from the floor in five of the past six games. Against Butler, the Cavs shot 73% in a second half that saw nearly 100 total points scored!

I took the Under in Iowa State's last game as they faced off w/ an Arkansas Little Rock squad whose goal was to slow the tempo down. The big difference between that matchup and this one is that the Trojans rank just 89th in offensive efficiency. The Cyclones held them to just 61 points on 37% shooting. But let's not forget how ISU allowed 81 points to Iona in its first round tournament game, which also saw nearly 100 total pts scored in the second half. They also are still 13-3 Over in neutral site games where the total is 140 to 144.5 and 8-2 Over when playing w/ five or six days rest.  Even though Virginia shot well overall vs. Butler, they were just 2 for 10 from three-point range, one of their worst performances from behind the arc all season. So we should improvement there and this one sails past the number. 10* Over Iowa State/Virginia

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET):  Due to a recent surge by Washington, this looks like a bit of an overlay to me.  Minnesota has been fighting hard down the stretch, covering their last four games, and they are coming off a win (113-104 vs. Sacramento) to boot.  The Wizards, meanwhile, just had a four-game win streak snapped w/ a home loss to Atlanta (2nd game of a home & home) and while they're still in playoff contention, this team's mediocre home record and subpar defense would have me concerned if I were to be laying points in this situation (Spoiler alert: I'm not!).  Yes, the T'wolves just lost to the Wizards earlier this month, at home, by a score of 104-98 and they were 3.5-pt dogs there. But that was w/ Washington owning a 64-18 edge in bench points, which isn't likely to be repeated here. Take the points.

The Wiz also shot 50% overall in the season's first meeting, including 11 of 29 from three-point range.  That sounds nice, but those are difficult numbers to maintain and the fact is this team has been woefully inconsistent for much of the year. After beating Minnesota, they would lose their next five games, followed by a five-game win streak. Wednesday vs. Atlanta saw them give up 122 points, raising their season average to 104.2 PPG allowed.  They are just 2-7 - both SU and ATS - against the Northwest Division this season, giving up an average of more than 110 PPG.  At home, they're barely above .500 straight up (19-18) and that's after winning three of four here. 

Minnesota may be out of contention, but they have a nice young nucleus w/ Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine.  That trio combined for 72 points in the team's win over Sacramento two nights ago. Because they're almost always taking points, the T'wolves have been a much better bet on the road than at home this year, going 21-15 ATS and they're being outscored by less than four points per game with much of that competition being better than tonight's opponent. As a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points, they are 7-4 ATS.  Over the last five games, this team is averaging an impressive 109.2 PPG, making the points look very attractive here. 8* Minnesota

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  Both teams played last night and in each case I got the result I was looking for. I went against Portland, so I was very happy to see them come up short by one-half point at home vs. Dallas (won 109-103, -6.5). As for the Clippers, well, as one might expect they lost at Golden State.  But the final score there (114-98 as 9.5-pt dogs) sets us up beautifully here as the home team is now drastically being undervalued. Los Angeles has now failed to cover seven of their last eight games while losing three in a row - both SU and ATS.  But the Blazers are weak on the road, going just 2-7 SU there this month and the two wins came at the expense of the lowly Knicks and Pelicans. Lay the points here.

Over the last five games, all of them taking place on the road, the Clips have allowed an average of 110 PPG, an astounding number to say the least.  Now, they did play both San Antonio and Golden State during the trip, but losses to undermanned Memphis and New Orleans were downright inexcusable. A return home should be just "what the doctor ordered" for Doc Rivers' club as they are 22-12 SU here for the season and allowing just 99.3 PPG. Again, their opponent has really struggled on the road (just 15-23 SU) and allows 105.8 PPG.  Being the second game of a back to back for both seems to favor the Clips as they are 9-6 SU in that situation while Portland is just 5-11 (3-7 on the road).

The Blazers defense has also been a liability of late as they've allowed a frightening 116.7 PPG their last 10 contests. Unlike the Clips, who should improve on that end due to being back at home, Portland is afforded no such benefit.  LA has not lost four straight games at any point during this season, going 2-0 SU when on a three-game losing streak.  They are also 9-5 SU (8-5-1 ATS) when coming off a double digit loss.  My own personal power ratings suggest that this line is simply too low and I have the home team bouncing back in this one.  10* LA Clippers

10* Duke (10:05 ET):  The wrong team is favored here. I simply don't know any other way to say it. It's not just that Oregon, clearly, was the weakest #1 seed coming into the draw. But also, compare the ACC's performance in this Tournament to that of the Pac 12 and I feel it tells the story. The ACC has placed a record six teams among the Sweet 16 while the Ducks are the lone remaining Pac 12 representative as five of the other six failed to even get out of the first round!  UO does arrive into the Sweet 16 riding a season-best 10-game win streak, but they had a close call w/ St. Joe's in the Rd of 32 (I cashed the dog plus the points) and for a second straight game will fade the Ducks.  This time I anticipate an outright win, but take the points anyway.

Though both of these teams won by similar margins in the Round of 32, that's a bit misleading.  Duke led Yale by as many as 27 points before the Bulldogs stormed back (cutting the lead to as little as three!) and still was able to (barely) cover as six-point chalk in a 71-64 victory.  Oregon, meanwhile, trailed St. Joe's by as many as seven points late in the second half before storming back to win the game.  While the Blue Devils depth can absolutely be questioned, so too can the Ducks' as both teams are likely to go only seven deep Thursday. Duke has the better scoring duo w/ Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram both averaging over 20 points per game in the Tournament.  No other team left can say they have that (two players averaging 20+ PPG).  I think it's very important to remember that the Blue Devils sport the fourth most efficient offense in the country. They are also the defending National Champs & 7-2 ATS their last nine NCAA Tournament games.

Duke's two weaknesses are defense and rebounding, but I'm not sure Oregon will take advantage of those in the manner expected.  Sure, the Ducks can score (78.9 PPG), but they had only six assists and 35 rebounds vs. St. Joe's. Offensive rebounds can be had against them. They were lucky that the Hawks struggled in transition in that last game. Duke may have only had to beat a 13 and 12 seed to get here, but remember this is a team that has lost by more than five points only three times since November.  I give Coach K the edge over Dana Altman w/ all this time to prepare, which is important, as is the fact Oregon is just 241st in 3-pt FG% allowed and Duke shoots 38.7% from behind the arc.  10* Duke

8* Maryland (9:40 ET): Kansas comes into the Sweet 16 w/ an aura of invincibility, but this is a season where such an aura is by no means reality and I think this shapes up as an overlay against Maryland team that treated me well in their last game. My biggest play from the first weekend was on the Terrapins against Hawaii and despite going a woeful 1 for 18 from three-point range, they won that game with "room to spare," 73-60 as 6.5-point chalk.  I can't fathom they'll be so bad again from behind the arc (36.7% for the year) and that means trouble for the Jayhawks, who are "due" to drop one at the betting window after covering 13 of their last 16.  Sweet 16/Elite 8 favorites of more than three points are just 37-54 ATS (40.7%) ATS. Take the points.

In my analysis for the Maryland-Hawaii game, I made mention that the Terps appear to be vastly underrated right now. It was just last month that they were 22-3 straight up and ranked #2 in the human polls!  Four of the five losses they've taken since then have been by five points or less!  I think that it's pretty interesting to find that the majority of wagers on this game have (predictably) been on the favorite, yet the line has not moved an inch (as of Wednesday night). While the majority of tickets have been written on Kansas, the overall handle is relatively split, indicating that there's some potential sharp money on the dog here. 

Again, Maryland's three-point shooting can only improve even going against a KU defense that has been pretty stingy to this point.  All five Terrapins starters average in double figures, led by Melo Trimble, who did an outstanding job of getting to the foul line in the Hawaii game (23 attempts).  I also believe the Terps happen to have the size to combat the Jayhawks' excellent front court.  While their three-point shooting has been poor to this point, Maryland shot a ridiculous 70 percent from 2-point range vs. Hawaii. That will almost certainly go down here, but will be offset from the likely improvement from three-point range.  Defensively, they held Hawaii to just 0.86 points per possession, which is impressive. I just think that after getting through the first two rounds virtually unscathed, Kansas is due for a close game.  8* Maryland

8* Dallas (10:05 ET):  This is the second game of a home and home between these two and considering that I thought the Mavs were a strong value as a pick 'em at home Sunday (won 132-120 in overtime), I'm really liking the value here in Portland where they are taking a pretty big number. Again, I have these teams rated fairly evenly in my latest power rankings (Dallas actually slightly better), so anything over three points here is really a premium.  Yes, the Mavs are now without Chandler Parsons the rest of the way, but they really controlled Sunday's game, leading much of the way and really should have wrapped things up in regulation.  Take the points.

Now, the Mavs did fall behind 36-25 at the end of the first quarter and got season-best performances from both Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams Sunday.  It will obviously be hard for the two players to repeat those efforts, but at the same time I don't see the team falling into such an early hole again. Portland came out on fire (6 of 12 from three-point range in the first quarter), but cooled off significantly after that.  Again, this second half (of the season) renaissance we've seen from the Blazers is quite stunning considering where they were projected to finish at the start of the season (lost four starters from LY's playoff team, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge).  They've recently "given a little back" in that they are just 3-7 SU L10 games w/ all three wins coming against non-playoff teams, two of them close.

Dallas seems to be in a good price range here as they are 7-3 ATS this season as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Parsons injury has clearly had an effect on the way they are viewed by the linesmakers and the public.  However, note that this team has scored a combined 225 points in regulation its last two games, thus taking this many points sounds generous.  Prior to beating the Blazers on Sunday, the Mavs had dropped seven of eight, but four of those losses were by six points or less and three of them were by a combined six points.  Only one-half game separates these two in the standings and with only 1.5 games being the difference between sixth and ninth place in the West, the Mavs are not going to roll over.  8* Dallas

10* Under Heat/Spurs (8:35 ET):  Well, going with the Heat Under didn't pan out last night as a very high scoring third quarter w/ the Pelicans (60 total points) set in motion the play's doom. The game still only finished two points Over the total, so it's not as if it was a bad call as I still firmly believe we're due to a see an overall decrease scoring in Miami games, both offensively and defensively.  This team spent much of this season as the top Under bet in the league, but of course when you speak of defense, you must mention the Spurs, who lead the league in defensive efficiency by giving up just 95.5 points per 100 possessions. There's a 3.5 point difference between San Antonio & the #2 team, so here is where we get the elusive Heat Under. 

Now, I should point out that the Spurs are off a loss here and a shocking one at that. After jumping out to a seemingly insurmountable 30-7 lead in Charlotte Monday, they lost 91-88.  After seeing the Spurs initial advantage, I was absolutely stunned to later see what the final score ended up being (had stopped paying attention to the game altogether). Of course, being off a loss has proven to be a very profitable situation to take San Antonio this year as they are a perfect 10-0 straight (8-2 against the spread). But with the pointspread being so high here, I'll instead point to the fact that they are allowing just 88.9 points per game in that situation.  Here at home, where they are a perfect 35-0 straight up this year, they are allowing an average of just 90.5 PPG. 

While San Antonio is the clear #1 team in the league when it comes to points allowed, Miami isn't too far behind at #4 overall.  But though they just held New Orleans to only 99 points on 39.1% shooting last night, we have seen some recent regression from the Heat on that end, which is part of the reason the Over has now cashed in each of their last seven games. But it's their own increase in scoring (100+ pts in every game this month!) that's played the bigger role. That should come to an end here against the league's best defense, which remember just held Golden State (#1 offense) to 79 points on 37.8% shooting.  Of course, San Antonio has scored only 87 and 88 points its last two games, so while it's a decrease in offense for Miami here, it should also be improvement on the defensive end compared to recent efforts.  One final thing to consider is that both of these teams are near the bottom of the league in pace of play (i.e. number of possessions). 10* Under Heat/Spurs

10* Florida (7:00 ET):  In yday's analysis on St. Mary's-Valpo, I made mention that when filling out my own NIT bracket (yes, I did one!) that I had the Crusaders making it all the way to the Championship Game. Well, on the other side, I have Florida. Tonight, the Gators are underdogs to a George Washington team that treated me quite well on Monday, beating Monmouth outright.  While a Florida-Monmouth matchup would have provided us with incredible value (on the Gators), drawing GW here still has the contingent from Gainesville priced inaccurately as I have them rated as the better team even after factoring in the home court advantage for the Colonials.  Take the points.

Florida comes into tonight off wins over North Florida and Ohio State, both on the road. What's unique here is that despite being the #2 seed in the region, all of the Gators' games thus far have been away from home. This is because their own arena is currently being renovated. While this would seem to put them at a disadvantage, all it's done is create a ton of value on a team that I have rated the best in the entire NIT field.  It was somewhat of an 'ugly' February at the betting window (1-6 ATS), but a 4-0-1 ATS mark the L5 games has changed that and it was interesting (and deserved) that they were a favorite in Columbus Sunday, a game where they never trailed. With eight losses by six points or less on its resume, Florida is clearly better than its record shows.

George Washington also never trailed in its last game and that was great for me as I had them against Monmouth and didn't even need the points! But if you recall from my analysis, that was more of a play AGAINST Monmouth, who I've felt has been overrated for quite some time.  This is now a big step up for the Colonials, who are just 1-8 ATS their last nine games vs. the SEC, even though they did beat Tennessee earlier this year (didn't cover). Though Monmouth was the top seed in this region, they weren't even close to being the best team and in fact my own power ratings indicate that Florida is coming off the tougher opponent here!  It's highly unlikely that GW will hold such a drastic edge in FG% here like they did vs. Monmouth (51.9% to 34.2%).  10* Florida

10* Under Heat/Pelicans (8:05 ET): With no lines posted overnight for today's NBA card, I was left to speculate and truthfully this was the game I had my eye on. The setup is strikingly similar to last night's play on Memphis-Phoenix in that we had one of the worst teams in the league, coming off a rare SU win, playing at home. Typically there's value (as there was last night) in going against the home side in that situation. But it turns out that's not the case here as New Orleans being w/o Anthony Davis has skewed the line way too much in Miami's favor for me to make a play on the side.  But the total, which is high, certainly looks to be a strong play as recent Heat games have seen a dramatic increase in scoring that's due to fade and the Pelicans are of course w/o Davis.  Take the Under.

Miami, the top Under team in the league for much of this season, now no longer owns that distinction (Utah) as the Over has cashed in each of their last six games.  The increase in offense is largely owed to the arrival of Joe Johnson as he is a stunning 23 of 39 on three-point attempts since coming over from Brooklyn.  The team went 11 of 19 from behind the arc in its 122-101 upset of Cleveland Saturday night, at home. They've now topped 100 pts in every game in March, a stunning turn of events considering a 99.3 PPG average for the season. This is one of just two teams now league-wide (Utah) that neither scores nor allows 100 PPG.  While the increase in offense is nice, what about the defense?  For the season, they have allowed just 97.9 PPG, but are up to 107.4 these L5 games. Simply put, we're due for a drop in both points scored and allowed w/ the Heat here.

Of course, New Orleans figures to struggle the rest of the way w/o Davis. They also likely won't have Ryan Anderson in the lineup tonight, so there goes their top two scorers. When these teams met on Christmas Day, it was a 94-88 Heat win and cover (I had the Heat -4!) w/ Davis and Miami's Chris Bosh combining for 59 points and 25 rebounds.  Neither will play here. Also, the O/U line is about 10 points higher for this rematch despite that first meeting staying way Under.  The Pelicans, 8-1 Over their last nine games, like the Heat are due for a lower scoring game than what we've been seeing from them recently. 10* Under Heat/Pelicans

10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET):  Not many people fill out an NIT bracket, but I did, and in the interest of full disclosure, Valpo was in my Championship Game.  The Crusaders, the top-seeded team in their region, I thought had a more legit gripe about being "snubbed" by the NCAA selection committee than say, Monmouth.  So far, they have rolled to a pair of pretty easy wins, beating both Texas Southern and Florida State by double digits on their home floor. Up next is a visit from St. Mary's and while a stiffer test it might be, I still have the Crusaders advancing w/ relative ease. This is not a great spot at all for the visiting Gaels, who are making the trip out East with three less days to prepare than Valpo had. Lay the points.

After escaping New Mexico State, 58-56 in Rd 1, St. Mary's prevailed Sunday over Georgia by a score of 77-65, covering as seven-point chalk.  They are now 18-12 ATS for the season, but that's less impressive when you consider they started a perfect 12-0. Also, this will be only the second non-conference road game of the entire season (seriously!) for the Gaels. The first and only other came all the way back on December 12th when they lost at Cal, 63-59. Incredibly, Tuesday night marks just the second time all season that they have left the Pacific Time Zone! The furthest "East" they have traveled previously would be to the Mountain Time Zone for a date w/ Brigham Young that they ended up losing by 11 points. 

As alluded to above, Valpo has a massive edge as far as time to prepare goes. They last played Thursday while St. Mary's second round game took place on Sunday. That's pretty significant, given this being the Gaels first long road trip of the season. Of the Crusaders' six losses this season, only two were by more than six points and one of them was in overtime, unfortunately in the Horizon League Tournament.  They really should have been in the NCAA Tournament ahead of Tulsa.  Here at home, they are 16-1 SU this season with an average margin of victory of +18.7 points per game.  Prior to the second round win over Florida State (led by 10 at the half, never trailed), the Crusaders had yet to be favored by seven or fewer points at home all season.  This is a really nice value with the short number.  10* Valparaiso  

10* Memphis (10:05 ET):  The Grizzlies are an awfully difficult team to handicap right now due to all the injuries. Pointspreads for their games have generally been overinflated to a high degree, so I guess it shouldn't be all that surprising to find them at 8-4 ATS their last 12 games.  Thursday saw them actually getting a very generous 11 points at Milwaukee (lost by only 10!), but the real shocker came two nights later at home against the Clippers, whom they defeated outright (as nine-point pups) by a score of 113-102.  While a result such as that one might normally have me "steering clear" the next time out, tonight's opponent is Phoenix, themselves off a win (rare!) and there is a major case of revenge in the air in the desert. Lay the short number.

Over the last month, these teams met twice. Incredibly, the Suns won both games. To put that achievement in its proper perspective, note that Phoenix has just three other victories during the time frame and before that had won just twice from December 20th until February 25th!  This time of year, it is wise to go against a team as bad as this when they're off a SU win. Logic dictates that they'll simply be unable to drum up the kind of effort necessary to win two times in a row.  Now the Suns did beat the Grizzlies, in Memphis no less, when off a 102-84 win at Orlando last month. But don't think that will be lost on the Memphis coaching staff or players. Overall, Phoenix is just 5-13 straight up and against the spread when off a SU win this season.

Memphis might be banged up and not as good as its overall record shows, but they are still fighting for a playoff spot.  Right now, they're in pretty good position to finish fifth in the West, which would likely mean playing the Clippers in the first round.  The odds would certainly be against them winning that series (though they did just beat the Clips), but at the same time they'd be higher than a matchup w/ the Thunder, Spurs or Warriors.  The bottom line here essentially is that I simply cannot see the Grizz losing for a third straight time to the Suns.  That can be a dangerous mode of thinking, mind you, but Zach Randolph being back (huge game vs. LA) is a big deal for Memphis and he should play a significant role tonight.  10* Memphis

10* Over Kings/Bulls (8:05 ET):  A strange thing happened last night for Sacramento. It wasn't just that they won a road game, but the manner in which they pulled it off. They gave up just 80 points! However, the skeptic in me wants to point out that came against the Knicks (no Carmelo Anthony) and that for the season the Kings are still allowing a ghastly 109.6 points per game away from home. Similarly, Chicago is off a low-scoring affair, also a win as they downed Utah 92-85 Saturday night.  But as we know, that can be "explained away" by pointing to the fact that the Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the league, not to mention just one of three teams to neither score nor allow 100 PPG. It will be a serious uptick in points for both sides in this one tonight and I "smell" an Over.

The Bulls are not good defensively.  They allow 102.9 PPG, which is more than all but four teams in the Eastern Conference. The hard-nosed identity they developed under former HC Tom Thibodeau has disappeared under Fred Hoiberg and while it would be unfair to pin that all on the "The Mayor" the fact is this team rates just middle of the pack in terms of defensive efficiency.  They tend to be stronger at home on the defensive end, but consider their last home game - against Brooklyn - saw 220 total points scored. It's a similar matchup here against an also-ran, an opponent that will have little interest in playing defense.  When these two met in Sacramento last month, there were "only" 209 total pts scored (Bulls won 107-102), but the Kings missed seven of 19 free throw attempts and were only 6 of 20 from three-point range. They should be better than that here.

Of course, Sacramento's defensive numbers over the course of the season are nothing short of downright abysmal.  They allow the most points per game in the entire league and by also playing at the league's fastest pace (Chicago is a surprising 12th in that category), there should be plenty of scoring opportunities in this one - for both sides.  There is no data to consider about how the Kings play after allowing 85 pts or less their previous game, because before last night it had never happened this season! 10* Over Kings/Bulls

8* George Washington (7:00 ET):  In case you haven't picked up on it in previous analysis, I feel there's a definite link between Monmouth's bench shenanigans and them being overvalued at times by the oddsmakers. For a team out of the MAAC, they sure do seem to have a high profile.  Now going against them in their first round NIT game proved to not be profitable as they beat Bucknell 90-80. That improved their YTD against the spread record to 21-12, which somewhat contradicts my earlier statement re: them being overvalued. But overvalued is what I feel the Hawks are again Monday as they step up in class with a visit from George Washington, a team that I would have favored against them on a neutral court. Even with the home court edge, I do not believe Monmouth should be favored by this many.  Take the points.

Now Monmouth's first round NIT game was a bit closer than the final score indicated as it was tied 52-52 in the second half before the Hawks hot second-half shooting eventually overwhelmed their opponent. For the game, they finished at 11 of 27 from behind the arc and scored 54 points in the second half alone. I really thought that Bucknell plus the points was the way to go in that contest as a high ticket count on Monmouth, plus the added disappointment of a NCAA 'snub', had me thinking they were ripe to be upset. Remember that this team was a dog in the MAAC Tourney Final against Iona. Alas, I was incorrect, but a second shot w/ a better opponent taking points still has me confident. 

In each of its last four games, George Washington has failed to meet the oddsmakers expectations. In Wednesday's 82-80 win over Hofstra, the Colonials needed a last-second shot just to escape, though it should be pointed out that they led by 11 at halftime.  Tied for the second-most wins in a single season in program history, GW was ousted by a St. Joe's team that just gave Oregon a great game in the NCAA Tourney and generally played much stiffer competition in the Atlantic 10 than Monmouth did in the MAAC.  Remember that Monmouth has dropped three games this year - outright - to teams outside of Vegas' top 200.  8* George Washington

8* St. Joseph's (9:40 ET):  In the interest of full disclosure, I was going to take Cincinnati to upset Oregon in this spot. I had the Bearcats Friday night against St. Joe's and were it not for a waved off, game-tying dunk, I could have had the opportunity to take them here against the Ducks. But alas, it is St. Joe's in this spot. I was critical of the Hawks in my analysis for their first round matchup w/ UC, but the bottom line is the overwhelming support Oregon is getting here has me willing to take an inflated number.  After all, St. Joe's is a money-making 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season after winning outright each of their last three games. Oregon is clearly overvalued after beating up on a patsy in their first round game.  Take the points here.

The one clear benefit to being a #1 seed is that you in essence get a first round bye. No 1-seed has ever lost in the Round of 64 and that trend figures to continue as their 16th seeded counterparts - by definition - are the worst teams in the field and many of them are teams that didn't even win their conference in the regular season. Oregon drew such a first round opponent, that being Holy Cross, perhaps one of the most unlikely teams in the field as the Crusaders were actually the 8-seed in the Patriot League and pulled four straight upsets just to get to Friday (three in conference tourney, then one over Southern on Wednesday).  So, what I'm saying is that little can be derived from the Ducks' 91-52 win their last time out. 

Both of these teams flew Over the number in their respective first round games.  St. Joe's scored 78 points on only 62 possessions against a hard-nosed Cincy team after topping 80 in all three Atlantic 10 Tourney Games.  Defensively, Oregon will present many problems for them.  But this number is clearly inflated as my own power rankings suggest the top seed should be just a slight favorite here. While being a 1-seed worked out well for them Friday, here it works against them as they are a 1-seed in "name only" as the vast majority of ranking systems have them outside the top 20. I think the underdog matches up well here and will keep this game close throughout.  8* St. Joseph's

10* Maryland (7:10 ET):  As with any team that pulls a major upset in this event, I "tip my cap," but when it comes to Hawaii there was an incredible confluence of events that took place, setting up their 77-66 upset (were +6) of Cal on Friday.  First off, the opponent was w/o their leading scorer PG Tyrone Wallace. Secondly, the Bears had to dismiss an assistant coach during the weak amidst scandal.  Third, on the morning of the game, another Cal starter (Jabari Bird) experienced back spasms and wound up not playing either.  So all the elements an underdog would like (and then some!) were definitely present for the Rainbow Warriors, who additionally shot 51.9% from the field (Cal was only 41.1 percent, including 3 of 19 from 3-pt range). Up next for Hawaii is Maryland and this will be a far tougher task.  I'm laying the points.

Maryland's 79-74 opening round win over South Dakota State ended up being a lot closer than it should have as the Terps led by as many as 18 late in the second half before sloppy play allowed the Jackrabbits in the "back door."  It was a "tale of two halves" as in the first they held SDSU to only 22 points on 26.5% shooting, but in the second they gave up an astounding 52 points.  I anticipate a more complete game this time around. Remember that Mark Turgeon's team was once (as in "last month") 22-3 straight up and ranked as high as #2 in the human polls. They clearly came into this Tournament underseeded and with an upset taking place in their bracket, they now have a pretty clear path to the Sweet 16 from where I sit.

All five Maryland starters average double figures in points per game and simply put this is a much taller order for underdog Hawaii than undermanned Cal was.  The Warriors have performed exceptionally well on the mainland this season (11-2 straight up!), but you have to wonder if they are feeling a bit road weary considering they've been "off the Island" since March 1st.  Looking at the line here and comparing to what we saw in both teams' first round matchups, it becomes clear that there's some value here on the Terps. Furthermore, no favorite seems to be getting LESS respect from bettors currently and that's a good sign as when too many people feel an "upset" is going to take place (like Wich St yday - yes, I know, technically a favorite), it often does not.  10* Maryland

8* Syracuse (6:10 ET):  Middle Tennessee is coming off one of the great upsets in Tournament history as they became just the eighth 15-seed to win a game in this event.  Of the octet, it can be argued that the Blue Raiders slayed the biggest giant, that being a Michigan State team that many (myself included) would make it to the Final Four and possibly win a National Championship.  Just to put over how improbable Friday's result was, MTSU scored 90 points (their 2nd most in a game all season) against the best defensive team they have faced and they did so at a stunning rate (1.32 pts per possession!) due to shooting a preposterous 57.9 percent (11 for 19) from three-point range.  Ladies & gentlemen, this is an offense that ranked seventh in efficiency - in Conference USA - during the regular season! They fall hard in Round 2. Lay the points here.

Not only will the Blue Raiders have to contend with plain old regression here, but they also have to deal w/ Jim Boeheim's trademark zone defense, which can make that regression be even more pronounced.  Syracuse just held its first round opponent - Dayton - to only 6 of 22 shooting from behind the arc and that's after holding ACC opponents to only 28.9% during the regular season. They will force Middle Tennessee into taking plenty of long-range shots here and after Friday's remarkable performance, it is highly unlikely that the Blue Raiders will make many of them. Something else to keep an eye on is that MTSU only turned the ball over 10 times vs. Michigan State while committing just 13 fouls.  I just can't see a repeat in either department here. 

After dropping three straight, all by five points or less, the Orange looked simply fantastic in squeezing out a 70-51 win over Dayton on Friday.  The ACC is looking very strong in this tournament w/ a 10-1 SU record & could put as many as six teams into the Sweet 16!  That speaks to the level of competition that Syracuse has faced throughout the year and simply put - on paper - this will be the weakest foe on the schedule (w/ the exception of BC) since their conference slate began. Remember that only one 15 seed - Florida Gulf Coast - has ever made it to the Sweet 16.  8* Syracuse

10* Dallas (4:05 ET):  This is almost "do or die" for the Mavericks, who have now dropped seven of eight to fall into eighth place in the Western Conference and they're just one game clear of ninth place Utah. They got a big break w/ the Jazz losing last night in Chicago, but Utah has a very winnable game tonight in Milwaukee. Therefore, at home, I feel that Dallas *HAS* to come through. Now that doesn't mean they necessarily *WILL*, mind you, but I feel the probability is high plus the value is there w/ a visit from Portland. Oddsmakers obviously take note of losing streaks, but this line is simply too low as my own power rankings have these teams rated evenly, meaning the home team should be about a three-point favorite!

Portland has been trending in the opposite direction of Dallas for much of the second half, but not lately. I took them on Friday when they held on for a 117-112 win in New Orleans (who lost Anthony Davis to injury), but before that the team had actually dropped six of eight.  The Blazers did enjoy an outstanding February, but they key to that run was they played a lot of home games, at one point six in a row. By comparison, March has had them on the road a lot more.  There's a real strong home vs. road dichotomy going on here w/ Portland 21-12 SU at home (+5.4 PPG) but only 15-22 SU on the road (-3.6 PPG). Their ATS record is positive in both situation, but that clearly reflects that they're usually taking points when away from home, something that is not the case today.

Part of the reason I called for Portland to put an end to a two-game losing streak Friday night was a drop in class. They were going from B2B road games vs. the Thunder and Spurs to playing at the lowly Pelicans. Here, Dallas just played Cleveland and Golden State. While Portland for them may not be as steep a drop in class as the Pelicans were for the Blazers, the theory remains the same nevertheless.  The Mavs actually were down only three in the fourth quarter Friday night vs. Golden State, but simply could not keep pace (gave up 130 points). But at least they are 10-5 ATS when off a double digit loss this season. Also, Portland is 7-31 SU its last 38 trips to Dallas. 10* Dallas

10* Iowa (12:10 ET):  The seventh-seeded Hawkeyes really let me down on Friday, blowing an early lead and needing OT just to pull off a SU win over Temple (won on putback at the buzzer). I think that as far as their critics are concerned, the blown lead only further "stokes the fire" as they did falter badly down the stretch, losing six of eight while going a money-burning 1-7 ATS. But as someone who does not qualify as an Iowa critic, I really like them plus the points here (rare that they are a dog!) against a Villanova team that drew a weak first round opponent (UNC Asheville) and will likely be tight due to their own issue, which is that they never seem to make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Take the points.

Over the last eight games, Iowa has been a dog only once. I took them and they didn't just cover for me (were just +1.5), but won outright at Michigan.  I realize that lately they've lost straight up more than not, but note their biggest margin of defeat during this stretch was just eight points.  Four times they've lost by four points or less.  I'll rehash what I said in my analysis for the Temple game: this team was once ranked #3 in the entire country. They come into the Tourney drastically undervalued.  Note that they got away w/ shooting only 34.8% from the field against Temple. But they also turned the ball over just three times in an overtime game, highlighting a season-long strength (taking care of the basketball) that I had brought up in my previous analysis as well. I truly believe that this team is due to rediscover its hot shooting from the start of the season (and start of the Temple game, for that matter!).

Iowa came out hot from behind the arc Thursday, making six of its first nine three-pointers. They are at 37.7% for the year in that department. If Villanova has a weakness defensively, it's that they allow a lot of three-point shots (37.3% of all opponents' attempts are from behind the arc). Also, the Wildcats can be had on the glass, which is great news for an Iowa team that typically is strong when it comes to offensive rebounding. There were a ton of upsets on Friday (duh!) and many top seeds that did survive, struggled. Nova didn't fall into either category obviously, but off the 30-point win they look overvalued to me in this spot as it is unlikely they will duplicate their 57.9% shooting from the last game. Again, the program's history of faltering in this round is well-known and will be discussed ad nauseam leading up to tip-off. I can see that having an adverse effect on the players, none of whom have ever made it to the second weekend.  The Hawkeyes (77.9 PPG) will score enough to stay close throughout and possibly threaten to take the game outright. 10* Iowa

10* Gonzaga (8:40 ET):  There is no running from the Pac 12's awful record so far in this year's NCAA Tournament (2-5 in first round), so I am not surprised at all to see the "Runnin' Utes" in the pick 'em range against 11-seed Gonzaga.  Of the teams seeded three or higher, Utah was w/o question the weakest and yes I'm taking into account teams that have already lost. Meanwhile, Gonzaga deserved far better than an 11-seed, which was a byproduct of them being in the rare position of having to win the WCC Tournament just to get into the Big Dance.  They looked far more impressive to me in dispatching of a Seton Hall team that had just won the Big East Tournament than Utah did in its first round win over Fresno State. Therefore, I'm backing the 'Zags here.

Maybe I'm a bit biased because I took Gonzaga in Round One (where they were actually favored despite being the lower seed). But there can be no denying how good Mark Few's team looked in the 68-52 win and cover. Again, that Seton Hall team had just beaten Xavier and Villanova in B2B days last weekend.   They held Pirates' leading scorer Isaiah Whitehead to 4 for 24 shooting overall (0 for 10 from three-point range) and while Seton Hall appeared to be ill-prepared to play at elevation and Denver was a huge edge for them (won't be here), I still would like to point out that I have the 'Zags rated as the better team here.  They won have won six straight, four of those coming by double digits.

Much will be made about the matchup of big men here - Utah's Jakob Poeltl and Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis - but don't discount the impact of Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer, who is his team's leading scorer at 20.5 points per game. Wiltjer comes off a subpar effort vs. Seton Hall; he was 5 of 14 from the field for only 13 pts, so I look for a bounce back game here.  The majority of Utah's recent wins were close while their one loss in the last 10 games came by 31. They drew a very weak 1st round opponent in Fresno State, an automatic qualifier that was not its conference's regular season champ.  Yes, you have to consider the respective conferences (Pac 12 vs. WAC), but Gonzaga has the better YTD per game point differential and right now the Pac 12 isn't looking so hot. 10* Gonzaga

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET):  Well, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. That's the tact I'm taking here w/ the Warriors, who "got me" by pulling away late in Dallas last night for a 130-112 win and cover (were -9). I would like to point out it was a three-point game in the fourth quarter.  But Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 70 points w/ the latter going a ridiculous 10 of 15 from three-point range.  It is now looking very likely that the Warriors will break the '96 Bulls single-season record of 72 wins. But if there's one game you'd "bank" on them losing, it would be this one, against the fellow historically-dominant Spurs, who by the way have not dropped a single home game all year. This being the second of a back to back does Golden State no favors here. Lay the points. 

Not only is San Antonio rested, but they have revenge and certainly the coaching staff and players remember what happened the first time they played Golden State. It was a 30-point loss, easily their worst setback of the season. Of course, setbacks have been few and far between for the Spurs as they only have 10 of them, meaning they could still tie the '96 Bulls as well (something that never gets ANY press). This team is 20-3 SU since losing to the Warriors and while Golden State has gotten all the accolades this year, I still have San Antonio rated higher as they do own a better YTD point differential (+12.3 to +11.5) due to what is the league's best defense - by a wide margin - allowing just 92.5 points per game.  Oh, by the way, the Spurs have won 43 straight at home and are outscoring foes by 15.3 PPG here this season!

Much will be made of the fact that the Warriors are a perfect 2 for 2 - straight up and against the spread - as underdogs this season. But one of those games was w/o Curry against overrated Houston. Of course, the other was the "MLK Day Massacre" in Cleveland (I took them there and called for the outright win), but this is clearly the one situation where they do deserve to be in the underdog role. If I were a Warriors' fan, I'd be worried that the team "used up" too much of its hot shooting last night when they went 22 for 38 from three-point range, tying the franchise mark for most made three-pointers in a game. The Spurs defense and home court advantage carry them to victory here.  10* San Antonio

8* Under Ark Little Rock/Iowa State (6:10 ET): Let's tip our cap to the incredible comeback Arkansas Little Rock pulled off at Purdue's expense, but at the same time it's very fair to say the Trojans should feel extremely fortunate to still be playing. They trailed the Boilermakers by double digits with just three minutes remaining before an incredible flurry of three-pointers forced overtime and then it took a second extra period to emerge victorious 85-83 (were +8).  The total for that game was a very low 127.5, so the game did go Over in regulation, but you'll note the O/U line is now much higher for this second round game vs. Iowa State, who is off a high-scoring affair themselves, but that was in an ideal matchup for them. Look for this game to be a lot lower-scoring for both sides.  Take the Under.

Iowa State got to face Iona in Round 1.  That was a team that was going to try to play "their style" only with less talent. Therefore, a 94-81 win shouldn't have been all that surprising. The Cyclones opponent here will play a lot different however, as ALR actually would much prefer to slow this game way down and limit the number of overall possessions. ALR comes in allowing only 59.9 points per game for the year (3rd best in the country!) and remember I touted this defense in a 70-50 win over LA Monroe in the Sun Belt Tourney Final last Sunday.  ISU doesn't figure to shoot the ball at a 50% clip (as they did vs. Iona) again here and I'm banking on them having a rebounding disadvantage as well. Ark Little Rock doesn't turn the ball over much either (just 37 last 5 games!), thereby limiting "extra possessions" for the Cyclones here.

Josh Hagins turned in a performance for the ages vs. Purdue (31 points), but the Trojans leading scorer averages only 12.8 PPG and I think it's important to remember he had only two points going into halftime on Thursday.  The team wound up attempting 77 shots vs. Purdue, which is a lot, as for the sake of reference you should note that ISU allowed Iona to take only 64 shots (admittedly a game that ended in regulation). But I think most important of all is to note that Thursday marked the first time all season that ALR went Over the total as an underdog (6-1) and they are also 9-2 Under when playing on one or less days rest. 8* Under Arkansas Little Rock/Purdue

10* Under Yale/Duke (2:40 ET):  Both of these teams went Over in their respective first round games. I specifically want to 'tip my cap' to Yale, who I had in their outright upset of Baylor (continuing the annual trend of a 12 seed over a 5 in this event). The Bulldogs shot 53.1% w/ the unheralded Makai Mason (not even their best player!) scoring a career-high 31 points.  The 79-75 final marked quite the high score a team that would prefer to play at a slower pace and limit possessions. When it comes to average length of possession, Yale is among the national leaders in terms of holding onto the basketball. I anticipate that will be a point of emphasis here against a Duke side that rates as one of the most efficient offenses in the country. But like Yale, the Blue Devils are due for an offensive downturn from their first game.  Take the Under. 

The key for Duke in it's closer than expected 93-85 win over UNC Wilmington was getting to the free throw line w/ incredible abundance.  Clearly, Coach K did his scouting on the opponent as UNCW is well-known for fouling a lot.  Exactly one-third (31 of 93) of the Blue Devils' points came from the charity stripe. That's a very high percentage, obviously.  While they're a good FT shooting team, Duke only averages 18 makes per game for the season (Yale allows only 18 attempts per game!). It also helped that Marshall Plumlee turned in a career-high 23 points Thursday.  Duke has only shot 42.2% from the field its last five games and that could be a big problem here against an opponent that likes to limit the total number of possessions and allows just 63.6 points per game. Don't expect many second chances for the Blue Devils in this one on the offensive end either; Baylor found out the hard way just how effective Yale is on the board (2nd nationally in rebounding differential).

How ironic that Plumlee has an older brother named Mason. For Yale, Makai Mason turned in a career-high himself (in points) on Thursday, including a perfect 11 for 11 from the free throw line. Both players should experience an obvious drop in offensive production here.  This is a unique matchup as it is a rematch from the regular season, an 80-61 win by Duke (had 'em!), that stayed Under the total. The oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly, but not by enough in my estimation as Yale is 9-2 Under their L11 games where the O/U line is between 140 and 149.5 points. Don't discount Duke being short-handed hurting them offensively either. 10* Under Yale/Duke

8* Miami FL (12:10 ET): I respect Wichita State quite a bit, but I feel this line is a classic case of "putting the apple cart before the horse" as Miami still deserves to be the favorite in this second round matchup. Sure, the Shockers looked quite impressive in dismantling their first round opponent, Arizona, who looked woefully unprepared for the task at hand. Plus, Miami failed to cover its first round matchup vs. 14-seed Buffalo. But that combination has served to give us some tremendous value on a Hurricanes team that boasts one of the most efficient offenses in all of College Basketball. This is a tough matchup for WSU, who may have rolled through the Missouri Valley, but this is a big step up in class.  Take the points.

It's certainly odd to see an 11-seed favored over a 3-seed, isn't it? If Wichita State were to win, this would be labeled an upset, but the linesmakers clearly disagree with such an assertion. Again, I absolutely respect what the Shockers bring to the table; it's just that I don't give them a better than 50 percent chance of winning this game, which means fading them is the way to go.  Lost in their tremendous defensive effort on Friday is that they shot the ball at only a 40% clip themselves. They were even worse in the "First Four" game vs. Vanderbilt (37.5%) and even worse than that in the MVC Tourney vs. Northern Iowa (31.7%). Also, remember that this is the Shockers' third game in five days, a tough ask, and it's an early game to boot.

Though Arizona came in averaging 81.5 points per game, Miami offers a tougher matchup thanks to boasting the nation's 12th most efficient offense (Arizona was 20th).  The 'Canes have an experienced backcourt, which figures to turn the ball over far less than Arizona did on Thursday.  PG Angel Rodriguez figures to be the difference maker in this one and don't discount his or the entire team's ability to get to the free throw line (went 26 of 34 vs. Buffalo). If Wichita State has one Achilles' heel, it is that they foul too much.  The Canes are 28-12 ATS when off three or more consecutive ATS losses. 8* Miami FL

8* Cincinnati (9:55 ET):  This is yet another favorite not getting much love in terms of % of total wagers on the game and I totally disagree with the majority. What is interesting, however, is that despite the majority of tickets being written on St. Joe's here, the line has moved in the opposite direction. That's a signal to me that the so-called "smart money" is w/ me on Cincinnati here and for good reason. The Bearcats are a potentially dangerous team in this Tournament for anyone that might face them. Simply put, you would expect a favorite to be attracting "more love" than this and if they aren't, then there's value.  I realize what St. Joe's did as an underdog this year, not to mention on the road and in the A-10 Tournament. But many times, we see an unlikely run through the Conference Tourney work against a team (Seton Hall last night!) and that's what I anticipate happening in this one.  

St. Joe's pulled B2B upsets over Dayton (overrated) and VCU en route to winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into winning that final game as neither team really had anything to play for as both knew they were safely in the field of 68 by that point.  In all three A-10 Tourney games, the Hawks scored 82 points or more, but I'd look for that run to come to a screeching halt here against a Cincinnati defense that ranks in the Top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats allow just 93.3 points per 100 possessions and have held 11 consecutive opponents below 45% shooting overall.  St. Joe's has met four teams in the top 50 in defensive efficiency this season and never shot better than 45% from the floor (29.7% from three-point range). 

Of course, the last time we saw Cincinnati they came out on the losing end of that 4OT thriller vs. UConn.  Maybe that's why the public seems to have soured on them here.  But, even in defeat, it was an admirable showing nonetheless and this is a team that has not lost B2B games in 2016.  While St. Joe's could clearly be labeled as an "overachiever" this season (went 22-11 ATS), Cincy not only suffered that 4OT loss their last time out, but also five defeats by two points or less during the course of the campaign! Despite their tenacious defense, they don't foul much (just 15.5x per game) and w/ St. Joe's struggling to force turnovers that means few "extra possessions" for the Hawks. Of the four 8-9 matchups, I view this one as the biggest mismatch. 8* Cincinnati

8* Michigan (9:40 ET): Props to Michigan for coming through on Wednesday against Tulsa. I was on the other side (Tulsa) and while it was a one-point deficit for the Wolverines going into the final minute, they not only pulled off the SU win, but the cover (by one-half point) as well. Now, given that I just went against the Maize & Blue, you might be surprised to find that I'm on them just two days later. But consider that a) they're now getting points and b) this is a much better matchup for them vs. Notre Dame.  "First four" winners have a "tradition" getting to at least the Round of 32 (happened every year) and looking at the current Tournament landscape, I'd say Michigan has the best chance of keeping that trend alive. Take the points here as HC John Beilein is now 14-4 ATS all-time in the Big Dance.

Keep in mind that Michigan was able to beat Tulsa despite shooting only 40.7% from the field, including 6 of 25 from three-point range. This is a team that led the Big 10 w/ 9.3 made three-pointers per game. What makes this a great matchup for the Wolverines is that Notre Dame is just atrocious defensively, ranking 172nd in efficiency. Only six Tournament teams are worse and that group can be collectively labeled "the 16 seeds."  So, look for Michigan to have a bounce back game offensively here in Brooklyn.  Really, the Wolverines could not have asked for a better draw here as their two weaknesses (defense, rebounding) are things that Notre Dame is unlikely, or incapable, to take advantage of.  

While Michigan's last three wins have come by a combined ten points, that's a lot better than some of the Fighting Irish's recent results.  A 78-47 loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament marked the third time in the last six games that the Irish fell by at least 18 points. Keep in mind that they also trailed Duke by as many as 16 in their first ACC Tourney game, only to rally back and beat a depleted Blue Devils squad in overtime.  While Michigan HC Beilein has been outstanding in past tournaments, Notre Dame has really struggled in the Big Dance under Mike Brey, including an atrocious 1-6 ATS in the Round of 64 since '06. The fact that the Fighting Irish are 321st in 3-pt FG% defense does not bode well for them here - at all.  8* Michigan

8* Texas (9:50 ET):  Shaka Smart's Longhorns don't seem to be getting a lot of love here and I'm not sure I understand why. Of the four six seeds in this field, they certainly seem like the "safest" bet to me, even if the spread disagrees. Well, actually, they opened and remain the largest favorite of all the 6 vs. 11 matchups! That's certainly justified to me.  Northern Iowa would not be here if not for a run through the Missouri Valley Tournament. Granted, that included a win over top seeded Wichita State, but let's not forget this Panthers team was once 2-6 SU in MWC play and that league was way down this year. Texas hails from the much tougher Big 12 (best conference in America) and has wins over Iowa State, at Baylor and West Virginia (two), not to mention North Carolina during the non-conference slate. Lay the points.

Shaka Smart was of course brought to Austin because of what he did at VCU. There, his Rams went 9-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, most of that damage done during that incredible Final Four run. Smart clearly has more talent to work with here.  A quick exit ("one and done") in their conference tournament should theoretically allow for Cameron Ridley's foot to heal.  Sticking with the inside, Texas has one of the best shot blockers in the country in Prince Ibeh.  Guard Isaiah Taylor is the team's top scorer (14.8 PPG) and a big reason why they don't turn the ball over much. The 'Horns aren't afraid to play at a slow pace and of course will press as is Smart's trademark.

Give credit to Northern Iowa for making their run, but there have been plenty of close decisions go their way down the stretch. Their last four wins have all come by six points or less (by 15 pts total!), two of them by just two points. Please give your condolences to Evansville, the team UNI beat in the MWC Tourney Final, as the Panthers beat them three times by three points or less.  The point that I am trying to make here is that Northern Iowa should feel pretty fortunate to be here at all.  In three of their last four wins, they've gotten away with scoring 57 points or less. While that speaks to their defense, they simply won't win that kind of game against a superior foe. 8* Texas

10* Under Weber State/Xavier (9:20 ET):  The committee did the Big Sky contingent no favors with this matchup.  Not only will Xavier likely be "out for blood" (suffered upset loss to Seton Hall in the Big East Tourney), but it is very likely that Weber State is going to struggle to score here. While the Wildcats' scoring average of 76.7 points per game looks impressive, note that came at the expense of arguably the weakest schedule any tourney team faced.  Even among Big Sky teams, WSU ranked 10th in three-point percentage and 11th in free throw percentage.  They are coming off a 62-point effort vs. Montana in the Tourney Final. Throw in that Xavier is overdue for an Under (seven straight Overs!) and likely to take its "foot off the gas" here late (provided the game gets out of hand), I think we have a strong recipe for an Under.

Recent Xavier games have been really high scoring. I realize that's something no one wants to hear when beginning a discussion of taking the Under, but I just want to illustrate that this stretch has seen them both score and allow more than what they average for the year.  The Musketeers' average of 88.4 points their last five games has to start coming down a little as does them allowing 85 PPG over the same stretch. That stretch of games of course came against conference opponents that they were familiar with, all of them the second time they had faced those teams.   This is a different scenario. They did shoot only 34% against Seton Hall in their loss a week ago. One player they will have to contend with here is Joel Bolomboy, who has 299 rebounds this season on the defensive end alone. Limiting Xavier to one shot per possession more often than not would be huge for Weber State here.

On the other end of the floor, however, Weber State is not a great offensive rebounding team. They take a high volume of three-pointers, but don't necessarily make a lot of them and that should hold true here. Defensively, Xavier holds teams to just 40.7% shooting away from home, including 28.5(!)% from three-point range.  Again, the hope here is the Musketeers build a big early lead and then scoring goes way down as the game moves on. That thought is enough to prevent me from laying the points here, but the Under is a strong play. 10* Under Weber State/Xavier

10* Dallas (8:35 ET):  For much of the year, Golden State has clearly been undervalued, crazy as that may sound. After all, how else can a team be 37-27-3 ATS (57.3%) at the pay window? The truth is that it's very hard for oddsmakers to handicap a historically dominant team, which is why we're seeing the great ATS marks from both the Warriors and the Spurs. But, here, we have a rare spot where GSW is not being undervalued. In fact, it's a really tough spot for them to be laying points on the road against a desperate Dallas team w/ a major game (at San Antonio) on deck for tomorrow night. Secondly, this is a rare instance where my own personal power ratings do NOT suggest the Warriors are undervalued! Take the points.

The Mavs already have beaten the Warriors once this year, albeit w/o Steph Curry. That win of course took place here in Dallas as Golden State hasn't lost at home this season. The Warriors' average margin of victory on the road dips to just +7.6 points per game as they tend to give up a LOT of points (107.9 per game).  Dallas, who has since lost a rematch 127-107 in Oakland, comes into tonight's game in dire need of a victory as they have dropped six of their last seven. But many of those losses were close (five by seven pts or less, three by a total of six points) and they did cover at Cleveland two nights ago, losing by just one.  Entering the day, the Mavs find themselves in a tie for seventh in the West, just one game ahead of the hard-charging Jazz (who won last night by 34). The upcoming schedule is by no means easy (home & home w/ Portland, at Golden State), so this is a team that needs to pull off an upset.

Dallas pulled an upset for me Monday night when they went into Charlotte and won 107-96. Still, the offense has been in a funk the last five games, averaging just 99.2 PPG when they are averaging 104.6 for the year here at home.  Of course, their last two games were on the road.  We should start to see an increase in offensive production tonight.  As for Golden State, after a long stretch of home games against (mostly) non-playoff teams, this will be the first time they have been tested in awhile. I really think that the "look ahead" factor (to San Antonio) plays a role here as well. They've done it before, but laying this many points on the road is too tough an ask given the situation on both sides here. 10* Dallas

8* Portland (8:05 ET):  All of a sudden, the Blazers have begun to cool off. They've lost six of their last eight w/ every defeat coming out on the road and the two wins taking place at home. Of course, a little regression had to be in order for this team after it previously won 14 of 16 (while at the same time going 12-4 ATS) from the end of January until March 1st. They also just played Oklahoma City and San Antonio, two of the top three teams in the league, both on the road. Let us take a moment to appreciate the job HC Terry Stotts has done this year as four starters from LY's group (which went to the playoffs) left in the offseason, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. My own personal power ratings suggest Portland should be the favorite here & I'm inclined to agree.  Take the points.

Last night in San Antonio, the Blazers "only" lost by eight, but that was after outscoring the Spurs 32-23 in a relatively meaningless fourth quarter.  Then again, they were only down two at halftime.  It seems to be that a halftime lead is key for Portland as they are 2-13 SU when trailing at the break, but 20-1 SU when leading! Therefore, the fact that tonight's opponent has a negative 1H scoring differential for the year has to be taken as a major positive.  So too is the fact that the Pelicans are off a rare SU win (just their 2nd in the last 10 games) as they are just 3-10 ATS this year coming off a SU win as a dog. Going against bad teams this time of year is generally a good idea when they are off a win as it is unlikely that they will be able to drum up the effort to compete in B2B contests.

Now, normally, when a team has gone just 2-8 SU its last 10 games, there might be some value there. But not here w/ New Orleans there isn't. The team they just beat (Sacramento) is the same team that accounts for their only other win over this 10-game span.  The Pelicans scored a whopping 74 pts in the first half Wednesday, but that's well above "normal" levels and they should thus see a sharp decrease here. Now, the home side has been the winning side in all three previous Portland-New Orleans matchups this year, but it's a different story this time around as one team is still competing for a playoff berth.  8* Portland

10* Pittsburgh (6:50 ET): In what's widely perceived to be an "even" matchup,  I feel that the wrong team is favored here.  Wisconsin closed the regular season strong, winning 11 of 12 at one point, which earned interim HC Greg Gard the job on a permanent basis.  But signs of regression have started to set in, namely a 91-80 loss at Purdue in the reg season finale and then an even more eye-opening defeat, 70-58 to Nebraska in the Big 10 Tournament. Now, yes, Pitt has lost three of four itself. But two of those losses came by exactly four points (on the road) and then the Panthers played a lot better in the ACC Tournament than the final scores showed.  I'm taking the points here, but won't be surprised at all if it's an outright upset.

Looking at Pitt's ACC Tourney results, they first beat Syracuse 72-71, a win that all but assured them of getting into the field of 68. While it was only a one-point victory, note they led by as many as 14 in the second half. A day later against North Carolina, the Panthers may have lost by 17, but that was a tie game w/ just under 16 minutes remaining. Even in the loss in the regular season finale to Georgia Tech, there was an excuse as guard Cameron Johnson was out and the team went 0 for 11 from three-point range. I understand that excuses don't "pay the bills," but to me Pitt is better than their record.  They are 30th in offensive efficiency (KenPom), great on the offensive boards and have a rotation that goes 11-deep. Their tempo and physicality is a bad matchup for their opponent here.

While Pitt may be an underachiever, to me Wisconsin has been an overachiever.  That 11-1 run in Big 10 play caught a lot of people by surprise, myself included.  I just cannot see them keeping pace in this game as they average only 63.9 PPG outside of Madison on 39.9% shooting. That was a really bad loss to Nebraska in the Big 10 Tourney where they scored only 58 points. Giving up 91 to Purdue the game prior wasn't inspiring either.  While the pundits want to say the Badgers have "transformed" under Gard, the fact is it's the same plodding approach we saw under Bo Ryan. While we shouldn't discredit that style as it got them to a National Championship Game last year, this team isn't nearly as experienced or talented. I find it curious that Wisky is favored here as their point differential is just +4.3 while Pitt's is nearly +8.0.  10* Pittsburgh

10* Iowa (3:10 ET): The Hawkeyes are one of those teams being labeled as "cold" coming into the Tourney. And I suppose that label is fair. Just to show how far Fran McCaffery's team has fallen, they were once ranked as high #3 in the human polls, but are now a seven seed! Yet, despite losing six of their last eight amidst cold shooting, the computers still think highly of this squad and so do I.  Remember, they were 16-3 (straight up) at one point, starting 7-0 in Big 10 play and beat Michigan State twice. Yes, they faltered somewhat down the stretch, but historically there is no correlation between a poor regular season finish and an early NCAA Tournament exit.  Temple is a popular "upset" pick here, but the Owls struggle when they aren't forcing turnovers and Iowa happens to be in the top 20 nationally in fewest TO's per game and seventh in assist to turnover ratio.  Lay the points.

Among "major" conferences, a group which include the American in, Temple has to be considered the weakest regular season champ. Consider that the Owls closed as a four-point dog to the #5 seed (UConn) in its own conference tourney and that was a day after UConn played a 4OT game (and they lost!). The circumstances there didn't prevent me from fading the Owls, nor will they here. While no team in the country turns it over less, Temple struggles when they aren't forcing them at the other end (just 6-9 SU when forcing 10 or less). Iowa gives it away only 10.4 times per game. The Owls shouldn't count on going to the free throw line much either in this one as Iowa sends its opponents there at the 10th lowest rate in the country.

Just to illustrate how unpopular Iowa is right now in the public's eyes, no favorite is currently receiving a lower percentage of total handle. Yet, the line has hardly moved. That should tell you something right there. I believe that a team that averages 78.1 points per game (Hawkeyes) can absolutely get its shooting back on track after being below 40% overall the L5 games.  Temple, meanwhile, barely shoots above 40% for the year.  The Owls will miss freshman Trey Lowe here and forward Daniel Dingle is battling a wrist injury. This was a very good first round draw for the Hawkeyes.  10* Iowa

8* Gonzaga (9:55 ET): Any time you have a lower seed favored, it should set off alarm bells and that's what we have here w/ an 11-seed (Gonzaga) over a 6-seed (Seton Hall).  Ironically, Seton Hall just won the Big East Tournament, so you can see what little respect that bought them. Yes, I must concede that they beat both Xavier and Villanova (both 2 seeds), on back to back days, along the way. But sometimes winning your conference tourney does more harm than good and in the case of a team that was already going to make the NCAA Tournament, I think that's the case here for the Pirates. I think that Gonzaga will relish being a much lower seed than past years and ironically, I can see them winning multiple games this weekend, something that eluded them often when seeded higher!

Gonzaga is much better than your typical 11-seed.  In fact, in a number of rankings that I respect, they are either right inside or outside of the Top 25! Only a regular season sweep at the hands of rival St. Mary's put their Tournament dreams in danger, but they avenged those by beating the Gaels in the WCC Tourney Final (I was on them). I think that a real key here is that the 'Zags haven't played since 3.8.  Meanwhile, Seton Hall played three times in three days w/ the Big East Tourney not concluding until Sunday.  The Pirates are right near the top of the country in terms of ATS record (22-9), but I feel they are due to regress of the outstanding effort last weekend.

Gonzaga actually has a much better YTD point differential heading into this matchup (+13.5 to +7.0).  Some of that is obviously owed to playing in the weaker WCC, but still, I feel it is noteworthy. With two star players - Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis - leading one of the top 25 offenses in terms of efficiency, Gonzaga was just a bad draw for Seton Hall.  The Zags shot well against the two best defenses they saw during the regular season. On defense, the Bulldogs are excellent at guarding the three-point line (as is Seton Hall) and the fact they aren't that great at forcing turnovers is somewhat mitigated by the fact the Pirates often turn it over too much.  Also, and I said this in my analysis for the Big East Title Game (won w/ the Under), don't be surprised if Seton Hall's poor FT shooting costs them. I'd just be afraid that the Pirates "wasted" some of their best efforts in the conference tourney. One final point is the venue, Denver, which actually favors Gonzaga.  8* Gonzaga

10* USC (9:50 ET):  Providence seems to be receiving overwhelming support here and I'm trying to figure out why. Sure the Friars come in riding a five-game ATS win streak. But before that they had failed to cover six in a row, going just 1-5 straight up.  Early on, there were some pretty clear warning signs that this team was a bit of a mirage despite a 14-1 SU start (finished just 9-9 L18 games).  Of course, a poor finish to its regular season is doing USC no favors here. The Trojans are just 2-6 ATS their last eight (3-5 straight up) and their defense really seemed to fail them down the stretch, giving up 80 or more points in four of those games.  Yet I still have them rated as the better team coming into this one, so take the points.

Another reason that the public seems to be flocking towards the Friars is their outstanding duo of Ben Bentil and Kris Dunn.  But Andy Enfield happens to have quite a lot of talent on hand at Southern California as well.  In fact, his Trojans happen to run a lot deeper than does Providence w/ six players averaging at least 9.8 points per game and seven have scored at least 19 in a game this year. The team ranks in the top 20 overall at 80.8 PPG. Rebounding, particularly on the offensive end, is going to be huge for USC here. They average 15 offensive rebounds per game and overlooked in the last season slide was the absence of Darion Clark, who missed seven games and the team didn't have the rebounding edge in any of them. He's back and had 20 rebounds in the two Pac 12 Tournament games.

Something to keep in mind is that USC's last three losses have all come to teams seeded 4 or higher in the tournament. Providence, once ranked as high as eighth in the country, fell all the way to a nine seed. They have been "one and done" each of the last two years in the Tournament. Meanwhile, Enfield knows what it's like to win in March as he was the one guiding that stunning run of Florida Gulf Coast a few years back.  Remember what I said about USC's offense? Well, Providence sometimes struggles to score in the half court (despite the individual talent) and is only 31.5% from three-point range this year. I look for the three-point shot to be the difference in this one. Note Providence averages exactly 74.0 PPG and the Trojans are a perfect 14-0 straight up this season when holding their opponent that amount or fewer. 10* USC

10* Stony Brook (9:40 ET):  A lot of good winning the SEC Tournament did Kentucky. Despite winning three games in three days, the Wildcats actually received a lower seed than the team they beat in the Final (Texas A&M). As a result, as soon as the bracket was released, we began hearing all about how UK deserved better than a 4-seed. The oddsmakers certainly seem to agree, installing them among the top six w/ the best odds to win the entire Tournament! But, let's pump the brakes a little, shall we? All this talk of potential matchups with Indiana and perhaps North Carolina will have Coach Cal's team likely overlooking first round opponent, Stony Brook, champions out of the America East. Take the points here.

Many times it pays to fade a trendy underdog in this tournament, that "sexy" upset that everyone seems to be on. Well, there's also a handful of teams (and this year Kentucky would be among them) that come from bigger conferences, seemingly w/ all the momentum in the world off a tourney win and then promptly struggle in the Big Dance. Kentucky has covered its last five games.  But its SEC semifinal win over Georgia was no "walk in the park" despite what the 93-80 final said. The Wildcats trailed for much of the game, even by double digits in the first half, and didn't put things away until late. Sunday's Final vs. Texas A&M was an overtime game.  Note that outside of Lexington, the Wildcats are just 9-8 straight up this season w/ a scoring differential of just +4.4 points per game.

We know about Kentucky's Tyler Ulis, but Stony Brook has a stud in their own right in the form of Jameel Warney, who averages 19.5 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. Warney went for 43 (points) in the team's 80-74 win over Vermont to clinch the automatic bid. Overall, the Seawolves can shoot (47.7 FG%), including 37 percent from three-point range.  They also do a good job at grabbing offensive rebounds (34.4 percent of all misses), which could be huge as that's a sore spot for UK on defense. I just think that the Kentucky "hype train" is a little out of control entering the Tournament and they are due for a major scare here. 10* Stony Brook

10* Under Hornets/Heat (7:35 ET):  This seems like an awfully high total for a Heat game. After all, Miami has spent much of the year, and still currently is the top Under team in the league (39-27-1). However, recently, we've seen them go Over in four straight and even more surprising is that the team has scored over 100 pts in every game this month. So I looked it up and I found that - right now - this would be the fourth highest total for any Heat game all season. The three higher all have come over the course of the last month. The highest (218.5) was against Golden State (on 2.24) and did go Over. But the other two, including a game I played (vs. Boston on 2.27) stayed Under. So too will this one as I'll go back to one of my favorite terms - "market correction" - as it applies to both teams in this instance.

Charlotte, like Miami, has seen a dramatic rise in overall scoring (both in points scored & allowed) recently.  They've scored 100+ in all but one game in March, that being Monday's outright loss to Dallas (which I called!) and are now averaging an impressive 113.6 points over their last five games. But this is a road game and the Hornets average only 100.2 PPG away from home. Note that they've had to play only one road game this month and that was in Philadelphia.  This team tends to not shoot the ball very well in other teams' arenas (just 42.8 FG%). Even at home last night, they didn't shoot well (40 percent) in a 107-99 win over Orlando. So already, we're starting to see some regression to the mean here and on defense things should continue to get better as over those L5 games Charlotte has allowed 5.3 PPG more than their YTD average.

These teams met a little over a month ago and the oddsmakers set the O/U line at 194.5, so as you can see there's been a dramatic swing in perception here. As I said earlier, recent Miami games have been much higher scoring than per usual as they've averaged 111.4 PPG over their last five, well above their season long average of 98.9 PPG. Over the same period, they've allowed 107.8 PPG and that's well above the YTD average of 97.7 PPG. The Heat are one of just three teams in the league (Jazz, Grizzlies) that neither scores nor allows more than 100 PPG.  One of those five games did go to overtime, so that needs to be taken into account.  So too does the fact the Heat shot nearly 60% against Denver Monday night. That won't happen again. Now we won't be seeing a repeat of their last performance vs. Charlotte (0 for 9 from 3pt range!) either, but a streak of seven straight Overs in this Southeast Division rivalry is due to come to an end.  Take the Under. 10* Under Hornets/Heat

8* Yale (2:45 ET): I shouldn't have to tell you that "every year a 12-seed will upset a 5-seed" (well, not last year). Scanning this year's matchups, this to me looks like the most ideal candidate. It's the one with the shortest spread, that's for sure. Also, it's not as if Baylor is immune to being upset. In last year's Tourney, they were beaten by a 14-seed (Georgia State) in their first game and a lot of the weaknesses present there are still present here.  Yale, the Ivy League Champion that didn't have to play a conference tourney, certainly won't be lacking for motivation here as this is their first appearance in the Big Dance since 1962. Despite the lack of Tournament experience, the Bulldogs are an experienced team that has averaged 24 wins per season the last four years. Take the points.

I mentioned earlier that many of the same issues that plagued Baylor last year are likely to cost them again here. For starters, they turn the ball over far too much. We're talking once every 5.3 possessions, a very high rate, which ranks 228th nationally.  They also don't defend the three-point shot particularly well, allowing opponents to shoot 37.1%, which ranks 295th nationally. Again, not good, especially considering Yale comes in shooting at a 37.4% clip behind the arc, not to mention 47.1% overall. Even Baylor's biggest strength, which is rebounding, is somewhat mitigated by the fact that Yale is actually the taller team here (really!) and ranks second in the country in rebounding differential at +11.1 per game.

Yale has a tremendous player, that being Justin Sears, the Ivy League Player of the Year. Sears averaged 15.6 points per game during the regular, despite B2B poor games at the end of the regular season. He should bounce back from that here given Baylor's penchant to allow teams to shoot the ball well. Yale only allows 63.1 PPG and a real key to this game is the fact they like to really slow the tempo down, thereby limiting the total number of possessions.  Slowing the pace is a trait of successful upset bids in the past.  Yale has won 17 of its last 18 games overall, so this is a team that "knows how to win."  They also went 4-0 ATS in neutral court settings. Don't discount the little bit of an advantage the underdog has here by playing in nearby Providence.    8* Yale

8* LA Clippers (9:35 ET):  This line simply looks way off to me as my own personal power ratings have the Clippers favored by three in this matchup.  I often stress the value that can be found on teams playing in the second game of a back to back, especially if they're on the road, and that's the case here w/ the Clips after they lost in San Antonio last night (no real shame there).  Meanwhile, Houston (who has been overvalued much of this season) comes into this one even more overvalued than usual after posting a 49-point beatdown of undermanned Memphis Monday night.  Thus, each team's previous result could not serve as a better set up to this one as the wrong team is now favored. Take the points.

So, LA is coming off B2B 20+ point losses, first to Cleveland and then to the Spurs.  Note that in their first 64 games, they did not suffer a single loss by 20 or more.  Also note that their last two opponents are among the top four teams in the entire league.  Against Cleveland, they fell victim to 18 made three-pointers by the Cavaliers while shooting just 40.5% from the floor themselves. Last night in San Antonio, the final score was a bit misleading in the sense that it was just a one-point game heading into the fourth quarter. Going from Cleveland-San Antonio to Houston is a drop in class for Doc Rivers' team and one that the should be able to handle. Certainly, we should see an increase in production from the Clippers offense against a Rockets defense that can't stop a nosebleed.

After a five-game East Coast swing, Houston returned home to find a depleted Memphis squad and took advantage by shooting a lights out 54.1% against the Grizzlies (who were at just 29.7% themselves). Those kind of performances simply haven't happened much for the Rockets this year as they have toiled in mediocrity w/ a negative YTD point differential due to a defense that allows a ghastly 106.6 points per game.  Monday marked just the second time all season that they allowed fewer than 85 points.  The last time they played the Clippers, they gave up 140, albeit that game went to overtime. Hopefully, Paul Pierce plays tonight for the Clips, but even if he doesn't I'm expecting increased production from team's bench.  8* LA Clippers

10* Tulsa (9:10 ET):  Tulsa is being "written off" as the team least deserving of a bid, but it's not as if Michigan has an extra leg to stand on. In fact, these teams had two common opponents during the regular season - SMU and UConn - and while Tulsa holds a win over both, Michigan went 0-2. Of course, Wolverines' fans may cry "not fair" because Tulsa got two cracks each at those two teams (conference opponents), but still, the Maize and Blue lost those games badly. Both were double digit losses w/ Michigan losing by a combined 38 points.  Yet they appear to be the overwhelming favorite here, not necessarily in terms of the line, but rather the ticket count. I think writing off Tulsa is a mistake and give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points.

The last time we saw Tulsa they were suffering a bad loss to Memphis, 89-67, as five-point chalk.  In the interest of "full disclosure," I was on them there and I think the nature of the defeat is what has the majority of bettors flocking to the other side here.  But lest we forget, the Golden Hurricane are an experienced group, one that starts four seniors and a junior.  The three-point shot, which can be such an ally this time of year, betrayed them in the Memphis game as they went just 4 of 15 from behind the arc.  Note that Michigan has allowed its opponents to shoot 46.4% outside of Ann Arbor this season.  Not only did Tulsa beat SMU and UConn during the regular season, but they also have wins over Cincinnati and Temple, two other Tourney teams from the American, plus they beat Iona and Wichita State early in the season.

Michigan, remember, is playing w/o its best player, Caris LaVert.  After they lost to Purdue in the manner that they did, I was a little surprised to see the Wolverines included in the field of 68. Their two wins in the Big 10 Tournament were quite fortunate as both came via last second shots (one in overtime) and the combined margin of victory was just five points. During the regular season, they had just three wins over Tourney teams.  A concern I have with this team is that it ranks 326nd nationally in rebounding. They've also averaged just 64.2 points over their L5 games. 10* Tulsa

8* Bucknell (7:30 ET):  I'm really liking what I see here. I can only imagine that the vast majority of the betting public is going to want to "get down" on Monmouth (a 1-seed here in the NIT), who is believed by many to be the NCAA Tournament's biggest "snub."  However, let's return to yday's discussion of motivation or lack there of.  The key to handicapping the NIT, and why I've been so successful through the years, is assessing each team's level of motivation coming into the event. Like St. Mary's, who struggled to win on Tuesday, I anticipate less than "peak Monmouth" here as the players still have to be disappointed from not getting invited to the Big Dance. Take the points.

Bucknell, like Monmouth, is an automatic qualifier for the NIT due to being the regular season champ of their conference. That conference happens to be the Patriot League and during a week where we saw numerous top seeds go down, the Bison's early exit from their conference tourney had to rank right up there w/ the most shocking.  Playing in their home arena, they lost to 8-seed Holy Cross, who of course would go on to make an improbable run and take the Patriot League's automatic bid.  Bucknell was a 13.5-pt favorite in that loss and shot just 33.8 percent. Note that upset seems like "forever ago" (13 days!), so the Bison players are likely "chomping at the bit" to get back out on the court.

Unlike Bucknell, Monmouth had to wait all the way until Sunday to find out their NCAA Tournament fate and as we know that wait ended up in disappointment. This team attracts a lot of attention for the silly antics of its bench players and while the 13 non-conf road games it played are nice, they lost to the likes of Army, Canisius and Manhattan, all of whom Vegas ranks outside the top 200. I was not surprised to see the Hawks lose in the MAAC Final, nor was Vegas, as Iona actually closed as the favorite for that game. It's interesting that this line hasn't moved at all despite the high ticket count (so far) on the favorite. Monmouth is ripe to be upset. 8* Bucknell

8* Boston (7:05 ET): Hey! Here's a bit of a surprise. Last night, I played AGAINST Boston as they fell in Indiana, 103-98 as 2.5-pt dogs. It was the Celtics' second straight loss and dropped them to 1-4 ATS their last five games overall. However, if you're a regular client or just familiar with my usual handicapping strategy, then you really shouldn't be surprised to see me "zigging" and "zagging" with the guys in green at all.  Especially since on the other side we have an Oklahoma City team that's clearly overvalued coming in due to a 34-point bea tdown they laid on Portland Monday night. Remember that the Thunder have been the worst ATS team in the league for basically the entire duration of the season (currently 26-38-3).  My own personal power ratings have this game as basically a pick 'em. Take the points.

It's not as if the Celtics were blown out in either of the last two games. Last Friday, as a 4.5-pt home favorite, they fell to the Rockets by only four points. That snapped a 14-game home win streak, by the way.  Yesterday, they were on the road against perhaps a more desperate Indiana team and it was close throughout, ending up at a five-point margin. While some (and I actually did label this as a key going into the game) will point to the absence of Jae Crowder last night, the bottom line is the Celtics have shot below 40% in the B2B losses. I think we should see the offense bounce back here at home where it averages an impressive 106.3 PPG.  Also, remember what I said in yday's analysis about Boston being a great bet when playing w/o rest? Under Brad Stevens, they are a league-best 36-16 ATS in the second game of back to backs!

This is an interesting matchup in the sense that it is the league's second most efficient offense (OKC) vs. the third most efficient defense (Boston).  I understand that the Celtics won't have Crowder again, but they'll instead benefit from some plan old regression on the Thunder side as no way does OKC match its last performance where they shot almost 60% from the floor and scored 128 points. Note that OKC is just 7-17 ATS this season following a double digit win. Also, the Celtics seem to be at their best when the oddsmakers call for a high-scoring game as they are on a 25-10 ATS run when the total is 210 points or higher. 8* Boston

10* Vanderbilt (9:10 ET):  I think that the general consensus is that the winner of this game is a strong candidate to carry on the tradition of "first four" teams winning multiple NCAA Tournament games. Certainly, the six seed (Arizona) can't be too happy about drawing either Vanderbilt or Wichita State in the Round of 64. As for the game itself, I actually rate Vandy as the better team on a neutral floor, which is where this game is taking place (Dayton), so taking points is a strong value. Wichita State may have rolled through the Missouri Valley this year, but this is not a conference game.  The Shockers were upset by Northern Iowa in the conference tourney and are just 4-6 ATS in non-conference games. Take the points.

Vandy was a really frustrating team during the regular season and losing in the SEC Tournament to Tennessee was somewhat emblematic of their entire campaign so far. But still, it was only a two-point loss for the Commodores and close losses were somewhat common for this team. They had six by five points or less, which tells me that the record easily could have been a lot better. Most will call Wichita State the better defensive team in this matchup, and deservedly so, but the Commies allowed just one point per possession in SEC play despite not forcing many turnovers. In many ways, that's just as impressive as what WSU did to a weak MVC.

While many are surprised to see Wichita State here (placed in a 'play in' game), note that Vandy was a preseason top 20 team as well and just as potentially dangerous down the line.  The Commies closed the regular season on an 11-5 run and I see three-point shooting largely determining the outcome of this ball game. Vandy is not only prolific at shooting from behind the arc, but also is third in the country in 3-pt FG% defense.  As a matter of fact, Vandy ranks 8th nationally in overall field goal percentage defense!  If I'm Wichita State, I'd be a bit worried that their best basketball could be "behind them" as they scored only 52 points in the loss to Northern Iowa and also struggled to beat Loyola IL the previous day.  I love Vandy's "inside-outside" game offensively and feel Wichita State will struggle to defend in this one.  Also, the Commodores' size (two 7-footers) should give the Shockers plenty of trouble. 10* Vanderbilt

8* Long Beach State (9:00 ET): Spoiler alert: I'm not forecasting a strong showing by the Pac 12 in the NCAA Tournament, so it stands to reason that Washington is similarly overvalued coming into this year's NIT. The Huskies first opponent is Long Beach State and while this one takes place up in Seattle, I foresee a very tight game throughout. LBSU came very close to knocking off top seeded Hawaii in the Big West Championship Game (lost by 4) and has really "cleaned up" in the underdog role this season, going 11-5 against the spread. Meanwhile, Washington is a team that has dropped seven of its last 10 contests and I see them being the less interested if the two teams here. Take the points.

Washington, who prefers an up-tempo style, had to be disappointed that they got Oregon to play at their pace and yet still came up short in the Pac 12 quarterfinals.  Though here at home they are holding opponents to just 40.3% shooting from the field, those same teams are averaging 76.6 points per game. One way to win if you're an underdog this time of year is the three-point shot and LBSU happens to be 37.6% from behind the arc this season.  The Huskies have allowed over 80 points in four of their last five contests.  With LBSU just having nearly pulled an upset over the top team in its league, despite shooting only 37.3 percent for the game, they have to be feeling pretty confident here. HC Dan Monson always challenges his team w/ a tough non-conference slate and considering the 49ers finished that portion of the schedule 8-3 ATS despite playing the likes of Seton Hall, Virginia, Oregon, Arizona and Duke, suffice to say they will not be intimidated here.

Both of these teams tend to give up points in bunches, but LBSU is off one of its better defensive efforts as they held Hawaii to just 64 pts in the Big West Championship Game. Consider that the 49ers twice beat Hawaii (Big West reg season champ) in the regular season too.  But I have to go back to the three-point shot as the 49ers set a school record w/ 279 made this season and I anticipate they'll get their fair share of good looks tonight.  As a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 pts this season, LBSU is a perfect 3-0 ATS. 8* Long Beach State

10* Over Sixers/Nets (7:35 ET): As the season winds down, one has to figure that defense will become even less of a priority for these two teams, neither of whom is any good at that end of the floor to begin with.  Now the two did just meet and it was a 95-89 win for Philadelphia, at home, which was their second over Brooklyn this season.  The streak that caught my eye here, however, is that the last seven matchups have all stayed Under the total. That figures to change here as not only is scoring way up in Nets' games lately, but Philly is coming off a 125-111 home loss to Detroit that sailed past the total. Overall, six of the Sixers' last eight games have gone Over. With both teams allowing over 109 PPG their last five contests, the scoreboard operator should be busy in this one. Take the Over.

Since the All-Star Break, Philly has played 13 games. Only one of them has seen them hold the opponent below 100 points. That was Friday's home game vs. the Nets.  While that continued the Under trend we've seen between the two, the fact is the Sixers have allowed 116 or more points eight times since the Break.  That's beyond awful.  Opponents have averaged 107.3 PPG against the Sixers this year. Detroit scored 125 on them Saturday thanks to 53.4 percent shooting.  Only five teams in the entire league have gone Over at a higher rate than Philadelphia, who plays at the league's sixth fastest pace. 

Brooklyn, in many ways, is worse than Philly defensively. They are 28th in efficiency, giving up 107.1 points per 100 possessions. Teams shoot better than 47% from the floor against them and 37.1% from three-point range here at the Barclays Center. Overall, the Nets yield 104.3 PPG and Milwaukee just shot better than 50 percent on Sunday en route to a 109-100 final score in the Bucks' favor. On Friday, it certainly appeared as if these teams could be heading for an Over as it was a 53-45 game at halftime.  But scoring then slowed dramatically in the second half. I predict that we'll see better than 14 of 45 overall three-point shooting in this one. The Nets are 16-9 Over vs. teams with a losing record this season.  The Over is also 20-14 in all of their home games.  I just can't imagine much defense being played in this one. 10* Over Sixers/Nets