8* Atlanta (8:05 ET): In addition to really liking the Under, I'm also on the Hawks in this game. I just feel that there's no way they shoot as poorly as they did in Game 1.  I realize that notion somewhat flies in the face of also playing the Under, but at the time I can certainly envision a scenario where the Hawks improve on their woeful 37.8 percent shooting from Sunday and yet this contest still finds a way to stay Under the total.  Remember how I said in the analysis for my Under play how the Hawks are 9-2 Under this season when seeking revenge for a home loss? (If not, please go back and re-read!) Well, they are also 8-2-1 ATS in such situations.  This was a very good home team in the regular season (also 3-0 SU here in the 1st rd) and I'm simply not buying that Washington is actually as good as its looked through its first five playoff games.  Lay the points.

Additionally, the Wizards come into this game a bit banged up.  Both members of the starting backcourt, Bradley Beal (ankle) and John Wall (hand) sustained injuries in Game 1 and that should hamper their production tonight.  Beal scored his career-high for a playoff game (28 points) Sunday, which is unlikely to be duplicated.  Also, remember that the Wizards had a massive edge in rest going into Game 1 as the Hawks were working on a short turnaround after closing out the Nets just two days prior.  It certainly didn't seem to affect Atlanta at the start as they raced out to a double-digit lead at halftime, but in the second half it did appear that they ran out of gas.  Similar to the Over having cashed in every matchup this season between these two, I just don't think Washington can continue its current run of 5-0 ATS in the playoffs and 7-0 ATS L7 overall.

Also, again, Atlanta is not going to shoot as poorly here as they did in the last game.  They were a woeful 15 of 46 on uncontested shots Sunday, which would almost be impossible for them to repeat.  The same holds true for their fourth quarter shooting, which saw them go 5 for 28 from the field, including 1 of 10 on three-pointers. For some reason, HC Mike Budenholzer had his starting five on the court together for only 18 minutes in Game 1. After losing a game for the first time all season in which it led going into the fourth quarter, look for the Hawks to respond w/ a big Gm 2 victory.  8* Atlanta

10* Over Clippers/Rockets (9:35 ET):  It seems as if injuries have been a major story in almost every series this postseason and coming into Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinal matchup between Houston & Los Angeles, it's no different.  A short turnaround for the Clippers (won Gm 7 Saturday night) was going to be tough no matter what, but likely having to do it w/o Chris Paul makes things particularly brutal.  That being said, I think the number has now been bet up too much to make the Rockets a viable play. Instead then, we look at the total and I think it's interesting that of the four games these high-scoring teams played in the regular season, none went Over. The number for tonight though is lower than each of the last three matchups, so there's some value here in calling for more points to be scored than expected.  I like the Over.

Houston certainly has no issues scoring.  They averaged 114.2 points per game (despite making less than 70 percent of their free throws!) in the first round series vs. Dallas and have topped 100 pts in 12 of their last 13 games overall.  For the season, they average 104.5 PPG, a number topped that is topped by only three times, one of them being the Clippers.  As previously noted here, thanks primarily to James Harden (who I thought should have been named MVP), no team does a better job of getting to the FT line than the Rockets.  They get there roughly 27 times per game and when you combine that w/ an average of 11 made three-pointers per game, it's no wonder that this team averages as many points as it does.   The Clippers allow 102.1 PPG on the road for the year and in the last five games vs. San Antonio were even worse (104.2 PPG). Something else to keep in mind is that Houston did not have Dwight Howard at its disposal for any of the four regular season matchups.

If Paul doesn't play, there is certainly a good chance that the Clippers get blown out here. Taking the court less than 48 hours after a tough, seven-game series w/ the Spurs and potentially not having your best player is a brutal spot. But I still expect the team to score enough to help push this one Over the total, regardless. If Paul does play, that's a tremendous bonus.  The Clips were second in the league in points per game (106.4) during the regular season and I expect a very high scoring Game 1 tonight.  10* Over Clippers/Rockets

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET):  I expect the Bulls to be a "trendy" upset pick for the series, but that's neglecting the fact that the Cavs still have not only the two best players in the Eastern Conference, but the best one in the world. Not to mention, they have the homecourt edge as well, and save for a meaningless game vs. Boston near the end of the regular season when they rested starters, Cleveland has not lost a home game in nearly four months. They have a massive edge in rest here, having had the last eight days off, and knew that they would be playing Chicago all along even as the Bulls struggled to put away Milwaukee.  The Bulls' 54-point win over the Bucks in the close out game (which I was on!) works to our advantage here as it's kept the number down.  Lay the points in Game 1.

The absence of Kevin Love looms large for the Cavs in their quest to win the NBA Championship, but I think they'll be just fine in the Eastern Conference portion of the draw.  They still have LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, a 1-2 combination that no other team in the league can match.  JR Smith is suspended for these first two games, but Iman Shumpert should slide into the starter's role nicely.  Because it's the playoffs, depth is less of a concern, plus having had all that time off one could assume that both James and Irving are ready to "go the distance" if necessary.  James has owned Chicago in past playoff meetings, both with Cleveland and Miami, averaging 27.1 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.5 assists. He will be the difference maker in the series, as per usual.  Here at home, the team's average margin of victory is 7.6 PPG & that's even factoring in the underwhelming start to the season. Since January 15th, that avg MOV jumps to double digits.

Chicago lost three of four regular season meetings w/ Cleveland, beating them only in the final game before the All-Star Break when the Cavs were w/o rest and off a 20-pt win over Miami. Cleveland scored 54+ pts in the 1H in each of its three wins and only failed to cover in the final matchup due to poor free throw shooting, which can be rectified.  The Bulls' overall sloppiness (100 turnovers in six games) in the first round series was nothing new and as noted here before, this has not been the usually sound defensive team we've come to expect under HC Tom Thobodeau.  In particular, look for Derrick Rose to have a tough time staying in front of Kyrie Irving. Joakim Noah isn't 100 percent either.  The favorite is undervalued in this spot.  10* Cleveland

8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors (3:35 ET):  Well, following the so-called "reverse line move" wouldn't have panned out for you in last night's Spurs-Clippers Game 7 as a number that came down (despite roughly 70 percent of bets being on the Over) wound up still going Over and by a pretty comfortable margin.  Despite that result, I'm going to play what appears to be another "reverse line move" here for Memphis-Golden State Game 1 as there's an even larger percentage of wagers being made on the Over, yet the total has actually come DOWN - by as many as 2.5 pts in some shops. Just to be clear, a "reverse line move" is a situation when you have a majority of actual bets on one side, yet the number moves in the opposite direction.  Take the Under. 

We know Golden State can certainly score its fair share, especially here at home, where they average a whopping 112.8 points per game. But in the first round sweep of New Orleans, they averaged just under 102 PPG and the two games resulted in a push and an Under. In fact, the only game that went Over in that entire series was Gm 3, which if you recall was the one that the Warriors made their huge comeback. They shot the ball only at a 44 percent clip for the series and now will take on a much better defensive team in Memphis, who holds opponents to just 95 PPG.  Of course, Golden State is no slouch defensively in its own right, holding teams to 98.5 PPG & they are actually #1 in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. 

Most people aren't giving Memphis much of a chance to win this series and things are made even tougher by the indefinite loss of Mike Conley, who in addition to being a very good point guard, is also arguably the team's best three-point shooter. His replacements - whether its Nick Calathes or Beno Udrih - are not good three-point shooters at all.  In a matchup of contrasting tempos, I feel Conley's absence will actually hurt the Grizzlies more on the offensive end. Looking at the last four regular season matchups between these two, we had two Unders and two Overs w/ a fairly wide range when it comes to the numbers. Obviously, the game w/ the lowest total (186.5) went Over while the one w/ the highest (204.5) stayed Under. This one is right in line w/ the other two and it should be pointed out that Memphis is 22-8 Under this season vs. teams that average more than 99 PPG.   8* Under Grizzlies/Warriors

10* Atlanta (1:05 ET):  What we have here is a classic case of overreaction to the results from the previous round. Washington swept Toronto, a series that going in many thought would be even, while top seed Atlanta was pushed harder than expected by a sub-.500 Brooklyn team.  The Wizards covered all four games and are now on a 6-0 ATS run dating back to the regular season while the Hawks hadn't covered in seven consecutive contests before the final two against Brooklyn.  So, the end result is some pretty solid line value w/ Atlanta, who did win all three home games in the 1st round, plus they took three of four in the regular season from this Wizards squad, including both here at Philips Arena. I'm laying the points in Game 1.

As I said when playing the Hawks in Gm 5 of the Nets series, this is a pretty strong home team.  They are 38-6 SU at Philips Arena this season, including a 7-1 ATS mark when laying between -3.5 and -6.  As I said earlier, they did beat the Wizards both times they hosted them in the regular season - by a combined 40 points, in fact, and overall are 5-1 SU when hosting their division rival the L3 seasons. I realize that Washington has a 7-1 SU road record the L2 years in the playoffs, but overall they have a losing record (19-24 SU) away from home for the year and the only time they beat Atlanta during the regular season came late in the year when the Hawks were resting starters. Also, don't put much stock into the added rest the Wizards have here as they are just 2-2 SU (1-2-1 ATS) when playing w/ 3+ days rest this season. Atlanta holds teams to an average of 94.9 PPG here at home and has a scoring differential of +8.4.

I think that the Hawks' late season malaise and their struggles w/ the Nets can be attributed to a lack of urgency. I now expect the team to show why it won 60 games in the regular season.  They destroyed Brooklyn in the close out game, winning by 24 pts, and are 20-10-1 ATS (24-7 SU) when coming off a double digit victory. They are also 25-10 ATS when facing a team w/ a winning record.  For the sake of comparison, Washington is just 8-13 SU/9-10-2 ATS its L21 games vs. teams w/ winning records & that's including the sweep over Toronto.  The Hawks are the better team and at home, laying a short number. 10* Atlanta

10* San Antonio (7:35 ET):  By now, I'm assuming you've read all about how home teams have historically dominated Game 7's.  They've won roughly 80 percent of the time, so laying a small number, naturally the public's lean here is going to be to the host Clippers.  However, I'm taking the points with the defending NBA Champs.  Every year since 2008 we've had at least one team seeded 6th or lower advance to the second round. We haven't had one yet this year & this is obviously our last chance for the trend to continue. I laid off Game 6 because I didn't want to lay points, but I picked the Spurs to win this series beforehand and I'm not coming off that assertion. Take the points.

The road team has won four of the previous six games in this series, so home court certainly hasn't had much effect to this point.  Late in the regular season, LA's Blake Griffin even questioned how much of a home court edge his team really had. As a home favorite of three points or less this season, the Clips have gone just 3-3 SU and ATS.  Overall, they are just 17-27 ATS at Staples Center.  I also certainly think experience should count for something in this spot.  The Spurs are 28-12 ATS under Greg Popovich when tied in a playoff series, including 9-3 ATS the L3 season (2-0 ATS in this series).  The Clippers, meanwhile, are 3-10 ATS in such situations, including 2-6 ATS the L3 years.   Assuming this is a close game, the Spurs' experience definitely gives them the edge. In the 10 playoff games that have been decided by six points or less or gone into overtime in these playoffs, the team w/ more experience in terms of total playoff games played has won straight up.

Bench scoring is also a major edge for the road team in this one. At this point, HC Doc Rivers might as well have his son Austin invite his friends down to the bench, because beyond the starting five, the Clips are getting next to nothing.  The Game 4 win at San Antonio was the exception to that rule, but for the series, the Spurs' bench has outscored its Clippers' counterparts by 20.8 points per game. In Game 6, the edge was 48-15.  I don't see the Spurs' starters being outscored by almost 40 points again here. They are 12-6 SU when off a SU loss as a favorite this season.  10* San Antonio

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET):  We already have one Game 7 in the first round (Spurs-Clippers), so how about the possibility of another? I'll take the points here w/ the underdog Nets, who being that the number is so small I give a great shot to for pulling the outright upset. The home team has won all five games in this series, including Atlanta (who I was on) in Game 5, but that took some late free throws to cover that number.  Brooklyn has played the top seed very tough in this series, covering each of the first four games in fact, so w/ the Hawks 0-6 ATS when leading in a playoff series the L3 years, they seem ripe to give one right back. Facing elimination here, you know that we will be getting the Nets' best shot.

The team leading after the 1Q has gone on to win every game in this series.  Given the sense of urgency for the Nets, I expect that trend to continue in tonight's game.  Consider that in franchise history, Brooklyn has NEVER dropped a Game 6 in the first round, which is pretty remarkable when you think about it.  This has also been an even series w/ Atlanta now just +9 in points scored thanks to the Game 5 victory.  Despite being the road team Wednesday, the Nets' bench outscored their Hawks' counterparts 41-16, which is not a good sign for the top seed w/ things shifting to the Barclays Center.  Three Atlanta starters played 40+ minutes two nights ago and the other two (Horford, Teague) suffered minor injuries.  The Hawks have routinely given up leads in the individual games of this series, so I feel it's risky to lay points w/ them again.

In my Game 5 analysis, I said to expect little from Deron Williams for Brooklyn after he matched a career playoff-high w/ 35 pts in Game 4.  He shot just 2 of 8 and scored only five points.  So, he's now probably due to play better and the same can be said for big man Brook Lopez, who I don't believe the Hawks have the capability to stop. Lopez had just 15 pts and three rebounds in Game 5, numbers that will almost certainly go up tonight.  The Nets have won and covered three of the four games this season where they were home dogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, including Games 3 & 4 in this series. Take the points. 8* Brooklyn

10* Chicago (7:05 ET):  Once upon a time, the Bulls held a commanding 3-0 series lead and had the Bucks on the verge of elimination. But following a GW layup by Jerryd Bayless (burnt Derrick Rose) to take Game 4 at the buzzer, Milwaukee also won Gm 5 (as 8-pt dogs) and now is on the verge of becoming just the fourth team in league history to force a deciding seventh game after initially trailing in the series 3-0.  If you're a believer in the concept of "momentum," then you're probably leaning towards the Bucks, who are taking points at home tonight, but I'm NOT one of those people as I still maintain Chicago is the far superior team and this is a short number.  Lay the points.

Turnovers have been a major issue in this series so far, particularly the the last two games where the Bulls have given the ball away an astounding 40+ times. Combine that with the poor shooting in Game 5 (34.4 percent overall) and it's no surprise Chicago lost outright Monday.  The turnover issue can be corrected. The poor shooting is due to improve.  In Gm 5, they missed their first nine shots from the field and were a woeful 4 of 22 from three-point range for the game.  Consider that in the previous game, they made 10 of 18 from distance and 48.5% overall.  Points in the paint and defensive rebounding percentage have also been down the L2 games. In the fourth quarter of Gm 4, they were a horrifying 3 of 20 on shots in the paint. Again, this all has to improve, right?

Having had two days off is also a benefit to Chicago, according to the numbers, specifically Rose.  In the two games in this series (1 and 3) where he's had two days off, he's played much better, scoring a combined 57 points on 21 of 39 shooting.  This is right in line w/ the regular season as Rose shoots 56.1 percent overall when having 2+ days rest compared to 43.0 percent w/ less time off between games. As a team, the Bulls are 12-3 SU this season when taking the court with two days of rest exact.  Milwaukee is just 5-8 SU in such situations.  Look for the Bulls to finally put the Bucks away.  10* Chicago

8* Portland (9:35 ET):  The Blazers, a very good home team, stayed alive Monday night w/ a thrilling 99-92 victory, their first over Memphis in eight tries this season.  Despite that win, I get the sense that the prevailing wisdom here is that this series is over, at least that's what it seems bettors are thinking as an overwhelming percentage of wagers have been placed on the Grizzlies here at home for Game 5.  You know me, I often like to go the other way in such situations and that's what I'll do here by taking the points w/ a Portland team that is better than what it's shown so far in the series.  With Grizzlies' PG Mike Conley being out indefinitely, that's a huge break for them. 

Conley's absence not only hurts Memphis, but it's also a huge benefit to Blazers' PG Damian Lillard, who went off in Game 4 for a game-high 32 points, 12 of those coming in the decisive fourth quarter.  Matched up almost exclusively against Conley in the first two games, Lillard managed to shoot just 10 for 37 from the field and score 32 pts total.  I'd look for a big game from him tonight.  Plus, unlike the first two games here in Memphis, the Blazers will have SG Arron Afflalo on the court.  Though he hasn't done much upon returning so far, he and CJ McCollum at least give Lillard some support out of the backcourt. McCollum has scored a total of 44 pts the L2 games.  Also, keep in mind that Portland won Monday night despite All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge going just 1 for 11 from the field in the second half.  He, like Afflalo, figures to be more of a factor tonight.

Though the final results have been one-sided, most of these Memphis-Portland games have been rather close.  The fact that the Blazers have not won at the Fed Ex Forum in over two years is something that screams "just due" and I'll gladly take the points w/ a team averaging over 102 PPG and facing elimination.   Without Conley, the Grizzlies scored only 48 pts in the first half Monday and it took Portland missing 20 of 25 shots in the third quarter (including 0 for 9 from Aldridge) for them to get back in it.  This should be a close, back & forth affair, that comes down to the final minute.  8* Portland

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET):  While the home team is a perfect 4-0 straight up, it has been Brooklyn that has covered every game so far in the series.  They even things up a two games apiece w/ an overtime win Monday, coming from behind to take the game 120-115 as six-point dogs after trailing by as many as 12 in the third quarter.  Me personally, I was on the Over in that one, an easy winner that cashed by 40 points thanks to the extra five minutes of play (would have still cashed in regulation).  Now with things moving back to Atlanta, I'm willing to bank on the top seeded Hawks taking care of business, just like they did in the first two games, only this time you can look for the final margin to be even greater.  Lay the points. 

In Game 4, the Hawks dared the Nets to beat them from three-point range and the underdogs were up to the challenge.  In fact, Brooklyn finished the game a pretty ridiculous 14 of 31 from three-point range, easily their highest percentage for any game in the series. Consider for a moment that during the regular season, the Nets finished 24th in made three-point attempts and 26th in percentage.  PG Deron Williams also had - by far - his best showing of this series w/ 35 pts scored.  Williams, who found himself on the bench for the final 16 minutes of Game 3, went a combined 2 for 15 from the field the previous two games. So I'd certainly expect plenty of regression when it comes to his performance tonight, especially w/ the game being played on the road.

As for Atlanta's offense, I really don't think there's any issue.  They scored 115 points on exactly 100 possessions in Game 4 (after shooting just 39 percent the first three games), and that's with players such as Kyle Korver and Al Horford struggling from the floor.  I wouldn't count on Korver, the NBA's best three-point shooter during the regular season, missing three straight times again like he did at the end of Game 4.  Here at home, the Hawks are now 37-6 SU for the season, holding teams to an average of just 94.8 PPG.  Brooklyn, just 19-24 on the road, scores only 96.8 PPG on the road. I look for the Hawks to bounce back here w/ a blowout victory.  10* Atlanta

10* Dallas (8:05 ET):  Yesterday, we saw two teams - Milwaukee & Portland - stave off elimination.  Now, Dallas will try to do the same for a second time.  Like the Bucks yday, the Mavs will have to do so on the road, but they are catching a generous number and remember that over the last two games they have scored a whopping 249 points - all in regulation - against the Rockets. Speaking of points, the spread here is higher than it was for either Game 1 or 2 in Houston and while the Rockets covered those games, note that four of their six wins against the Mavericks this year have been by seven points or less.  I say take the points as Dallas looks to stay alive for one more game.

Dallas does have a winning road record this year (23-20 SU).  They have yet to win in Houston (0-4 SU), but both games in the regular season were close and really so too were the first two games of this series.  Obviously, a cold-shooting night by the Rockets helped greatly in Game 4, but again Dallas had no problem scoring against a Houston defense that really isn't very good despite the presence of Dwight Howard.  While the Rockets are unlikely to go 2 for 21 from three-point range again, I also can't see the Mavs only making 9 of 21 free throw attempts again either.   Despite that and being -19 in attempts from the charity stripe, they still won by double digits Sunday, which is impressive.

Rajon Rondo being gone is a benefit to the underdog here.  Rick Carlisle is clearly a better coach than Kevin McHale and it seemed as if he finally found a lineup that worked.  Six Mavs scored in double figures in Game 4 and three had double doubles, including the unheralded JJ Barea and Al-Farouq Aminu.  Interestingly, Dirk Nowitzki only had 16 pts Sunday and I take that as a good sign that the team was still able to win.  While Houston typically has bounced back well from a loss this year, they don't play good enough defense to cover a spread this large against a desperate team looking to stay alive.  10* Dallas

8* Chicago (8:05 ET):  Milwaukee was able to keep its season alive w/ a buzzer-beater in Game 4 from Jerryd Bayless, thanks to a defensive breakdown by Derrick Rose.  However, I don't think I'm alone in thinking the Bulls' advancing is mere formality and now that they are back at home for Game 5, I smell a blowout.  The Bucks failed to cover in the first two games of this series, both here at the United Center, where they've now gone 0-4 straight up and against the spread this season. With second round opponent Cleveland having finished off a sweep yday, the sense of urgency for Chicago to end this series becomes even greater.  Lay the points.

The Bucks definitely played much better in Games 3 and 4, holding double digit leads in both contests.  But again, those were at home.  They are just 19-25 SU on the road this season and the tremendous edge they enjoyed Saturday in terms of bench production (47-19!) likely won't be present here.  Also, I can't see Chicago turning the ball over 28 times again as that was easily their season-high.  The Bulls also should see more production tonight from Nikola Mirotic, who missed Game 3 entirely and scored just 5 pts in 20 minutes of action in Game 4.   Being back at home obviously helps as well, especially considering they've won nine in a row by an average of 12.9 points per game here.

Milwaukee has not scored more than 91 points in any of their four visits to Chicago this season.  In Games 1 & 2, they were held to just 86.5 PPG and in the regular season they were held to just 79 PPG.  The last time they won a game at the United Center was December of 2013.  Bench scoring and turnovers have kept them in this series, but again, it's hard to have those advantages on the road as both statistics tend to be quite volatile.  The Bucks have shot below 40 percent for the series and what I though was interesting is that the Bulls actually had their best shooting game of the series (48.5 percent) in Game 4 as they were 10 for 18 from three-point range.  Simply by cutting down the turnovers, the Bulls should have no problem covering the spread in this one. 8* Chicago                    

10* Over Hawks/Nets (7:05 ET):  Thus far, every game in this series has stayed Under the total. As a result, the linesmakers have gradually been decreasing the O/U line.  We're now to the point that tonight's number is nine points lower than what it was for Game 1.  Thus, the value (in my opinion) is on the Over for Game 4 as the Nets will be looking to tie the series up.  In Game 3, a 91-83 Brooklyn win, both teams shot very poorly.  The Nets finished at 38.6% from the field and the Hawks were even worse at 35.6%.  They combined to go a woeful 13 of 52 from three-point range.  I cannot see such a poor performance being duplicated here, thus I feel we have the recipe for an Over.

Brooklyn has been pretty consistent in the three games so far, finishing w/ either 91 or 92 points every time.  Obviously, we're going to need more scoring than that here.  They average 98.8 PPG for the season here at home, so just getting to that would probably be all we need & that doesn't seem like asking much.  They have yet to shoot better than 32% from three-point range in any of the games, so I'm thinking that's where the added scoring comes from tonight.  Also, Deron Williams' presence seemed to be doing more harm than good.  Joe Johnson has gone on record saying the point guard is dealing w/ tendinitis.  Williams has averaged just 6.0 PPG in the series and there's two possible scenarios here: either he plays and is more effective or he doesn't play and doesn't hurt the team.  Backup Jarrett Jack was a +17 for Game 3 and the team scored 33 points over the final 16 minutes w/ him on the court.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is almost certain to improve on the offensive end here compared to what we saw Saturday.  They were 0 for 8 at the rim when Brook Lopez was in the game and 1 for 17 overall on shots the Nets' center contested.  While Lopez is a fine player, those kind of numbers are difficult to duplicate. Also, Kyle Korver missed all five of his three-point attempts, his most w/o a make in any game all year.  Overall, he was just 1 for 8 from the field and fellow All-Star Al Horford struggled as well, going just 3 for 12 and finishing w/ seven points. This Atlanta team averages 102.2 PPG for the year, so a higher scoring Game 4 seems almost inevitable to me.  10* Over Hawks/Nets

10* Under Clippers/Spurs (3:35 ET):  So far, only Game 2 of this series has gone Over and that came w/ the benefit of a 30-point overtime. Yet the O/U line here remains high, although not as high as the previous three games.  That being said, the Clippers only scored 73 pts in Game 3 as they shot a woeful 34.1 percent from the field overall.  Almost certainly, they will improve upon those numbers today, but counteracting that will be a likely decrease from San Antonio, who is unlikely to shoot 52.6 percent overall or 41.7 percent from three-point range.  Take the Under.

Game 2 was tied 94-94 at the end of regulation.  So only the Clippers in Game 1 have been able to score more than 100 points in regulation in this series.  They made 10 of 18 three-point attempts in that game, but have predictably regressed since by going a terrible 15 for 52 from behin the arc.  Before making a respectable 10 of 24 in Game 3, the Spurs had been pretty woeful from three-point range in the first two games (just 18 for 58). As long as the three-point shooting stays poor on one or even better, both, sides, we should be in good shape here.

The Clippers had their lowest scoring quarter of the year (11 pts in the third) as a part of Game 3.  While again, they are almost certain to improve tonight collectively, there are a number of individuals coming off poor showings and their baselines are quite low.  Chris Paul scored only seven points, Blake Griffin had only 14 and JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford combined for only 14.  Even if all improve here, and its likely that they will, it still may not be enough to send this game Over.  San Antonio's Tony Parker is also battling an Achilles injury that hampered his own Game 3 performance.  For the year, the Clippers are 6-2 Under as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 pts while the Spurs are 7-2 Under as home favorites in that same range.  10* Under Clippers/Spurs

10* Portland (10:35 ET):  There's been a shocking lack of intrigue so far in the first round of the NBA playoffs w/ five of the six series that have played three games standing at 3-0.  The other two are 2-0.  This here is one of those two and for Portland, if they don't win, it's basically now season over.  They are 0-6 SU vs. the Grizzlies this season, something I consider to be shocking as I actually had the Blazers rated higher in my own personal power rankings for basically the entirety of the season. The good news for Game 3 is that the series is shifting to the Moda Center where Portland has played far better all year.  I say to lay the points.

At home this season, the Blazers went 32-9 straight up, outscoring their opponents by more than eight points per game. Offensively, they average about two points per game more, but the real improvement comes on the defensive end of the floor where they are down to 95.8 points per game allowed, which is basically a six point difference from the road average.  They'll need an effort along those lines here considering the way the offense has struggled so far in this series (84 PPG), but again those offensive numbers should improve dramatically w/ the return home where they average 104.1 PPG.  Both LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard have not shot the ball well in the first two games. That's destined to change. 

Arron Afflalo is likely to be in the starting lineup tonight.  That's huge for the Blazers. His replacement CJ McCollum, who averaged 15.6 PPG this month coming into the series, has really struggled w/ just eight points on 4 of 21 shooting.   Remember that Afflalo was the replacement for Wes Matthews (out for the year).  He's a double digit scorer.  Center Chris Kaman, listed as questionable for Game 3, told reporters that he plans on playing. The bottom line here is that I just cannot see Memphis continuing to beat Portland at the rate they've been doing the last several seasons.   10* Portland

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET):   Most are going to want to call for Golden State to wrap things up here, but it cannot be ignored that the Pelicans probably should have won Game 3 and are now 3-0 ATS in this series.  And for some reason the number is going UP (from the last game) despite those previous results.  New Orleans has actually led outright much of the way the last two games.  They infamously blew a 20-point lead going into the fourth quarter Thursday night, which admittedly will be difficult to forget, especially because they led by 17 w/ just six minutes to go.  But considering the way they've played in the series, taking the points is the way to go.

New Orleans outshot Golden State in Game 3, significantly, 51.1 percent to 41.1 percent.  They were at nearly 60 percent in the first half and bench scoring was 2:1 in their favor.  Simply put, it was a game they could have - and should have - won.    Thanks to this series, the Pelicans continue to "clean up" as underdogs; they're now 28-13 ATS as dogs this year and going back to last season, they are now 11-4 ATS the L15 times they have been a home dog in the +6.5 to +9 range.  

Golden State is just 2-9 ATS in April and while they have been a double digit fave in many of those games, that includes a 0-4 ATS mark vs. New Orleans including a regular season loss.  The Warriors' two wins here have been by four and six points this season and both required overtime.   Each of it's last seven victories have been by 11 pts or less.  Anthony Davis is averaging 30 PPG and 11 RPG in this series and should keep the Pelicans within striking distance again tonight.  New Orleans has basically covered wire to wire the L2 games.  8* New Orleans

10* Toronto (8:05 ET):  The Raptors have already committed the "ultimate sin" here by dropping the first two games of the series at home.  This makes it highly unlikely that they will advance past the first round for the first time since '01 (only time in franchise history, in fact), but I do like them now that they're are in the underdog role for Game 3. Obviously, the prevailing wisdom here is that the "series is over" w/ Washington returning home up 2-0, but the Wizards are hardly the most trustworthy bunch themselves and I certainly can see Toronto winning one of the two games here to get things back "North of the Border."  With a fairly dramatic shift in the line, I say to take the points here. 

The Raptors do sport a winning road record (22-19 SU) and interestingly enough, averaged more points per game there than they did at home.  In fact, I'm not sure there's a team in the league that can match Toronto's 105.3 PPG away from home.  Game 2 was clearly higher scoring than Game 1 and take note that the Wizards are just 5-15 against the spread after allowing 105+ points the previous game.  They are also only 2-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts w/ three outright losses.  Going back to the previous two seasons, they're just 8-20 ATS in that range and hardly a .500 team straight up (15-13). 

  Even though they're now the home team, it's highly unlikely that the Wizards will make 27 of 39 field goal attempts again, which is something they did across the two middle quarters in Game 2.  Things started well enough for Toronto on Tuesday as they led 12-2 out of the gate and 31-26 at the end of the first quarter.  They really need Kyle Lowry to step his game up as he's been ineffective due to foul trouble & injury in the first two games.  I keep going back to the fact that Toronto swept the regular season series from Washington, so it's not like they can't beat this team.  With their backs against the ball, expect the best performance of the series from them here in Game 3.  10* Toronto.

8* Dallas (7:05 ET):  While the Mavs have clearly looked overmatched in the first two games of this series, let us not forget the old adage that a series really hasn't started until the home team loses a game. Houston preserved homecourt advantage w/ wins in both Games 1 & 2, but it was a one-point game heading into the fourth quarter on Tuesday. No longer will Dallas have PG Rajon Rondo to kick around as he's effectively been permanently benched. That's fine too; he was more of the problem than the solution anyway.  The loss of Chandler Parsons looms larger, but still I expect Dallas to win Game 3 here at home anyway and make this a competitive series. 

Back at home, it's highly unlikely that the Mavs will shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 2 where they were just 37.1% overall from the field, including 27.3% from three-point range.  Benching Rondo looks to be a case of "addition by subtraction" as the team is -36 in point differential w/ him on the floor so far in this series.  Sometimes adding a talented player to the mix simply doesn't work out and that's been the case here in Dallas w/ Rondo.  The numbers bare this out.  They were far more efficient offensively before his arrival and now they no longer have to worry about what a liability he's is at the free throw line either.  The bottom line is that Rondo wasn't what HC Rick Carlisle wanted in a point guard and at home I expect the rest of the team to play hard for its coach. During the regular season, the Mavs went 27-14 SU while averaging 106.6 points per game here at home.

Houston has admittedly beaten Dallas five of the six times they've played this year and also owns an impressive 26-15 SU road record. But a big key here could be that the Rockets allow 103 PPG away from home, about six full points more than they allow on a per game basis at home.  I just can't agree with the linesmakers here that Dallas doesn't deserve at least some credit for being the home team now.  Getting them as essentially a "pick 'em" seems like a real "buy low" situation and again I don't think the talent gap between these two teams is as severe as how it looked in the first two games.  8* Dallas

10* Golden State (9:35 ET):  While New Orleans has covered each of the first two games of this series (I had them in Game 2!), you get the sense that they really aren't capable of playing any better.  They still lost the first two games, at Golden State, by seven and 10 pts respectively & overall have lost 12 of the past 13 matchups w/ the Warriors.  So laying the small number shouldn't be too much of a problem.  Overall, the Warriors haven't covered in their last five games.  But in four of those, they've been a double digit favorite.   Not only is this team 65-9 SU when favored this year, but they are 42-28-4 ATS in those same games. Lay the points.

In Game 1, Golden State demonstrated that they were clearly the better team, but we already knew that coming into this series.  They led by 15 after the first quarter and by as many as 25 late in the third before the Pelicans snuck through the back door.  Game 2, as I anticipated, was a lot closer (tied entering 4th quarter) w/ New Orleans even leading outright much of the way.  But in watching that game, you saw how hard it was for them to even maintain a lead.  The Warriors made coming back "look easy," particularly in a second quarter where they shot the ball at a ridiculous 76 percent clip. While the offense will always grab the headlines, Golden State is holding New Orleans to just 98.6 pts per 100 possessions thus far and allowed only 87 pts total in Gm 2.

To stay close, the Pelicans basically need Anthony Davis to play out of his mind.  Davis has done his best in carrying the team thus far, but it simply hasn't been good enough.  We saw the effects of him logging a career-high 45 minutes (for non-OT games) in Game 2 when he went scoreless from the floor in the fourth quarter in Game 2.  The Warriors came into this series 10-1 against the spread when playing w/ exactly two days rest.  Though they lost and needed OT to win in their two visits to the Big Easy during the regular season, the stakes are obviously higher here and we know who the better team is.  10* Golden State

8* Over Spurs/Clippers (10:35 ET): I had the Clippers in Game 1, a great play as they won 107-92 as only 1.5-pt favorites.  I noted that while it seems as if everyone is ready to "hand" this series to the defending champion Spurs, it should not be forgotten than the Clips have now won 15 of their 16 games (eight straight!) w/ the only loss coming by four at Golden State.  Now, I fully anticipate Game 2 to be a more tightly contested affair, so rather than go back to the home team in this one, I'll instead look at the total as a higher scoring game seems more likely here w/ San Antonio off a bad-shooting night overall and Los Angeles' ability to score.  Take the Over in this one.

San Antonio is no slouch offensively either as they average 103.0 points per game.  Game 1 marked the first time all month that they failed to score 100 pts.  Sunday's result now places the Spurs at 6-0 Under this season on the road when the total is 205 to 209.5. But that's due to change, no?  One thing is for certain and that's you should expect them to improve upon their Game 1 numbers when they were just 36.6% overall, including 10 for 33 from three-point range and just 53.8% (yikes!) from the free throw line.  Defensively, I don't expect much better from the Spurs here and that's even if Thiago Splitter plays more.  That's because in the past four meetings w/ the Clippers, they've allowed an average of 112.3 PPG. 

The Clips also average more than 106 PPG for the year and while they shot well overall (51.3% from three-point range), they also got next to nothing from the bench (22 pts total) outside of Jamal Crawford scoring 17.  Of course, that's been an issue all year, but at home you should be getting better production from the reserves.  I also have to go back to the fact the Clippers were just 60.7% from the FT line in Game 1.  With the two teams combining to miss 23 of 54 attempts from the charity stripe, that's a lot of points that were left "on the court."  With expected offensive improvement from San Antonio and the Clippers likely to maintain their own production on that end of the floor, I look for plenty of points Wednesday night.  8* Over Spurs/Clippers

10* Portland (8:05 ET): This series could not have gotten off to a worse start for the Blazers, who were blown out in Game 1, 100-86, and then had to deal w/ the fallout of a locker room sign which read "We don't lose to Spanish players" (in reference to the Grizzlies' Marc Gasol). Worse yet, the game was even more lopsided that the final score indicates as Portland trailed by 24 entering the fourth quarter. Going back to the end of the regular season, the team has now dropped five in a row - both SU and ATS.  But I'll still call for them to bounce back here as the linesmakers have made what I feel is an overadjustment for Game 2.  Take the points.

Portland has yet to beat Memphis this year, losing all five matchups.  That seems odd to me, given that most power ratings (including my own) would indicate these teams are fairly even. The Blazers are almost certain to play better tonight than they did in Game 1 where they shot just 33.7 percent overall from the field, including just 2 for 17 on drives. That was their worst shooting night of the entire season.  PG Damian Lillard, in particular, had an "off-game" as he missed all six three-pointers he attempted and finished just 5 for 21 overall. Lillard's job here would be made easier if backcourt mate Aaron Afflalo returned (questionable). CJ McCollum failed to produce (1 for 8) in the starter's role Sunday night as remember the team's normal SG Wes Matthews is out. 

Meanwhile, I can't see Memphis getting 20 points against from Beno Udrih, which was his career playoff high.  With the line adjustment for tonight, note that the Grizzlies are just 3-6 ATS this season as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range.  Like Portland, Memphis didn't finish the regular season strong as they dropped six of ten w/ the only win over a playoff team coming at the expense of 8-seed New Orleans.  I'll still also point to the fact that the Blazers finished w/ the better point differential in the regular season. While a better team at home, I think they can keep this one close throughout and easily stay within the number.  10* Portland

8* Dallas (9:35 ET):  The Mavericks lost Game 1, 118-108, failing to cover as 5.5-pt dogs.  The linesmakers are only being slightly more generous for Game 2, but I'll be taking the points as I'm going all "zig zag" in this three-game report, taking the Game 1 SU/ATS loser every time. As I said at the end of the Boston writeup (and then neglected to mention in the one on Toronto!), the SU loser of Game 1 has made a strong ATS accounting for itself in Game 2 the last three seasons (plus yday), going a healthy 33-13-1 at the betting window.  These teams rank pretty evenly according to my own personal power ratings, so look for the Mavs to cover and possibly take the game outright.

Houston did take three of four from Dallas during the regular season, but note every win was by seven points or less, two of them by five pts or less.   Seven Rockets scored in double figures Saturday night, something that can't happen every game.  An incredible +28 edge in FT attempts, obviously a byproduct of James Harden, was also key.  While because of Harden, the Rockets have the best differential in FT attempts compared to their opponents, that is pretty ridiculous even by their standards and thus unlikely to be repeated again tonight.  In a win at Dallas earlier this month, Houston did attempt 40 shots from the charity stripe, but in each of the previous three matchups, they were at 26 or less.

The Mavs are going to need to ride Dirk Nowitzki more than they did in Game 1 where he was still able to score 24 points on just 14 attempts. This is especially true if either Chandler Parsons or Devin Harris can't go tonight.   Overall, I think the team can score enough (115 PPG L5) to stick within the number this time as you know we'll be getting their best shot as the Mavs don't want to fall into the dreaded 0-2 hole.  8* Dallas

8* Toronto (8:05 ET):  For a second straight year, the Raptors lost home court advantage in their first round series right off the bat by dropping Game 1. For a second straight year, that loss came to a team w/ Paul Pierce on its roster.  In 2014, it was Brooklyn and now its Washington. Faced w/ the prospect of falling into what would almost be an insurmountable 0-2 hole, I look for Toronto to bounce back in Game 2.  As I discussed in my previous series analysis, Washington is a rather inconsistent bunch, one that is just 14-21 SU its L35 games vs. teams with a winning record. Thus, I cannot see them winning the first two games of this series on the road. Lay the points.

Though Toronto did not play well in Game 1, they did rally to force overtime, which should count for something.  The bench actually scored more than the starting five (48-38) and I cannot see the latter struggling again the way it did Saturday.  In particular, DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Terrance Ross combined to go just 11 for 41 from the field, including 0 for 11 from three-point range. As I said prior to Gm 1, the duo of DeRozan and Lowry rank as the league's second highest scoring backcourt, trailing only Golden State's Curry and Thompson.  They'll be better here. It's not like the Raptors can't beat the Wizards; they swept them during the regular season, also going 2-1 ATS.  I also don't see the rebounding battle being so one-sided this time out.

This will be Washington's fourth consecutive road game dating back to the end of the regular season. While the playoff schedule has at least spread those games out, it's a role the Wizards are just 1-6 ATS in this season.  Also, Game 1 aside, this was not a good team in the underdog role for much of the year.  They are just 9-21 SU when taking points, including 3-10 as a road dog in the +3.5 to +6 range.  In all three games at Toronto this season, the Wiz have shot worse than 30 percent from three-point range.  With a low spread, I'll take the desperate home team that finds itself in a "must-win" situation.  8* Toronto

10* Boston (7:05 ET):  Cleveland covered in Game 1 thanks to a missed driving layup in the final seconds Sunday that was inconsequential to the final score, but a killer for Celtics backers. The game featured a wild swing as early on Boston led by as many as eight, but then trailed by as many as 20 in the third quarter. However, defensive issues remain for the Cavaliers, who were actually outshot in Game 1 (46.8% to 45.1%) and thus I see them failing to cover the big number this time as I'll zig zag for Game 2. Boston actually had the second best win percentage in the Eastern Conference (second to Cleveland) after the All-Star Break. Take the points.

The Celtics are the only road team to win here at Quicken Loans Arena since January 15th. They did so, beating a "skeleton crew" 11 days ago, but still while they may be ultimately overmatched in the series, I don't see a team that's intimidated.  They were able to get off to the hot start Sunday, but turning it over 13 times in the L3 quarters didn't help. Even though he has less to work with, I don't think there's any denying that Celtics HC Brad Stevens has done a better job this season than counterpart David Blatt. Boston finished the regular season w/ a positive point differential and was 31-18 ATS as underdogs.  This is a team that averages 101.3 points per game, so they can "keep pace" w/ Cleveland's high-powered offense, at least to the degree where they can stay within the number.

Overall, the Cavs have covered just three of their past ten games.  For the Celtics, Game 1 stopped a six-game ATS win streak.  Defensively, Cleveland remains an average team at best, which will catch up w/ them when trying to cover spreads as large as this.  Boston is going to be at its most desperate here, trying not to go down 0-2 in the series. Note that Game 1 losers have gone 33-13-1 ATS in Game 2 the past three seasons (plus yday) and DD dogs in the playoffs off a SU/ATS loss are on a healthy 33-18-2 ATS run.  10* Boston

10* New Orleans (10:35 ET):  I'm going with the popular "zig-zag" approach in Game 2 of the Pelicans-Warriors series as the double digit number is just too tempting to pass up.  Now Golden State obviously took Game 1, 106-99, but they failed to cover after being outscored 33-22 in the fourth quarter. They built a big early lead (led by as many as 25), so the game probably wasn't as close as the final score indicates, although the Pelicans did pull within four in the final minute. That all being said, and despite the fact the Warriors have won 19 straight at home, I think taking the points is the right play here.  New Orleans is now 3-0 ATS this season taking 9.5 or more points and Golden State has now failed to cover four of its last five when laying double digits.

With Anthony Davis, the Pelicans are guaranteed to at least be competitive in this series.  In his playoff debut Saturday, Davis dropped 35 pts and had seven rebounds and four blocks. A case can be made that he is the best player - on either side - in this series and yes, I'm including MVP candidate Steph Curry in that discussion. Clearly though, Davis will need help if New Orleans is to actually win a game in this series. PG Tyreke Evans is listed as questionable for tonight (bruised knee), but likely will play. Another key will be getting off to a better start. In all five games against the Warriors this season, the Pelicans have trailed by at least nine points at halftime.

New Orleans has not dropped B2B games since a four-game losing streak back in late March.  They've gone 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS since that time off a loss, the only non-cover coming in a game where they were favored by 14.5 points.  Golden State has now failed to cover six of its last seven games as the linesmakers finally begin to catch up to them.  They are actually just 17-19 ATS their L36 games overall.  The Pelicans were right behind the Warriors for the season as one of seven teams in the league to finish better than 56% against the spread.  It's hard to cover spreads this large in the playoffs, when motivation is never an issue for the dog. 10* New Orleans

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  For the record, I would not be surprised to see the Spurs win this series. Every year, there is usually one team - seeded 6th or lower - that advances to the second round.  (Last year, it was Brooklyn over Toronto).  This year, it seems as if everyone is picking the Spurs to oust the Clippers, despite being the lower seed, and despite the fact that the Clippers were probably the league's second hottest team at the close of the regular season (San Antonio being the hottest).  Los Angeles comes into the postseason having won seven straight and 14 of their last 15, the only loss coming by four at Golden State (a game they led much of the way).  So, to me, they are being drastically undervalued on their home court for Game 1.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs close as the favorite here, so you may want to even consider waiting to get the best possible line. 

I just don't think that the Clippers are being given the proper credit here.   They finished w/ a slightly better point differential (+6.5) than the Spurs during the regular season, so they should probably be laying at least 2.5 or 3 pts here.  Yes, there is the issue of their weak bench, but this being the playoffs, rotations are shortened and depth becomes lack of an issue.  This Clippers team also went 30-11 SU at home, averaging greater than 106 PPG.  They won the final two meetings with the Spurs during the regular season, including one here at Staples Center as a home dog.  I think the fact that the Spurs lost on the final day of the regular season, which dropped them from 2nd to 6th in the Conference should mean something. The loss of home court advantage will make things harder for the Spurs here. 

Predictably, the majority of bets here are on the Spurs, which was to be expected.  But again, I just think that everyone is giving the Spurs a "free pass" here against what is a top three team in the league.  This could very well be - on paper - the best first round matchup EVER as it is the only time we've had two teams with YTD point differentials of better than +6.0 taking on each other this early in the playoffs.  Bottom line is that the Clippers are being undervalued coming into this series. 10* LA Clippers

8* Portland (8:05 ET):  If you're Memphis, you have to be thinking that things couldn't have worked out any better when it comes to seeding. Not only did the Grizzlies avoid both the Clippers and Spurs here in the first round, but by virtue of having a better record than 4th seeded Portland (division winners guaranteed no lower than 4th), they have the home court advantage in this series - against a team they swept in the regular season, no less. Why then am I taking the points?  Well, I still think the Blazers happen to be a better team overall and while home teams can often be undervalued in the playoffs, anything more than the standard boost for home court here is too much.  Take the points.

Admittedly, the Blazers aren't a great road team.  They have a losing record away from home and give up 101.4 points per game.  They allowed 100+ every time during a four-game (SU and ATS) losing streak to end the regular season, but I'm not overly concerned about that stretch as they were pretty much locked into their seed and had nothing to play for in those games.   Remember that last year they advance past the first round despite not having home court advantage. I'm not saying that Portland will win this series, but three of the four meetings vs. Memphis in the regular season were decided by single digits, two by six pts or less.  The line was never greater than three in any of the four games. So there's value here.

Memphis, like Portland, did not close the regular season all that well.  They were just 5-6 SU the L11 games, so again, the team laying points in this series is the one to be wary of.  Overall, the Grizzlies were just 27-30 ATS as a favorite and 21-19 ATS at home. After allowing 85 pts or less, which they did in the regular season finale, they are just 4-8 ATS this year.  While their defensive numbers are superior to Portland, their offensive numbers are not as they average just 98.3 PPG.  I see this as being a competitive series, possibly destined for seven games, and a 4-0 SU/ATS record vs. Portland for Memphis is not indicative of how evenly matched these teams truly are.  8* Portland

10* Over Bucks/Bulls (7:05 ET):  All four regular seasons matchups between these two stayed Under the total and given the number here, expectations from the linesmakers are for another low-scoring affair in Game 1. However, I think the number is too low.  Due to those aforementioned regular season results, it's easily the lowest total of the five games, and as I mentioned numerous times during the regular season, this is not your normal Bulls team under HC Tom Thibodeau.  Chicago averages 101.9 points per game at home (thanks to getting to the free throw line a lot) and has actually gone 9-3 Over in the first round of the playoffs the L3 seasons.  Look for this one to sneak Over. 

There have only been three previous games w/ a total this low for the Bulls this season and the last, a 101-91 home loss to Memphis, went Over the total. In fact, totals below 190 pts for this team have become rare. The last five at 191 pts or below have all gone Over.  They averaged just 92 PPG in the four games vs. Milwaukee this year, but that number figures to rise in this series given that they are finally healthy.  The starting five of Rose-Gasol-Noah-Butler-Dunleavy is 17-5 SU when on the court together.  Gasol averaged 24.3 PPG vs. Milwaukee and had a career night against them earlier this year (46 pts, 18 rebounds).

After ranking 2nd, 4th, 1st and 1st the last four seasons in defensive efficiency, the Bulls dipped to 11th this season.  So like I said earlier, this has not been your typical Thibodeau-coached team.  Milwaukee did top 100 pts in each of its final two regular season games and like Chicago when the total dips below 190, Bucks' games tend to go Over (4-2 L6).   Two of the four regular season matchups would have gone Over tonight's total, which shows that this may be an over-adjustment here by the linesmakers.   Bulls' home games saw the Over go 25-16 during the regular season w/ an average of 199.5 total pts scored.  Even Milwaukee games averaged more than 195 total points per game.  10* Over Bucks/Bulls

8* Toronto (12:35 ET):  While this is the one series in the Eastern Conference w/ potential to go the distance, I feel that the Raptors are being undervalued for Game 1.  They're at home and beat the Wizards all three times they played in the regular season. While you could make the point that all those games were played in the first half of the season, when Toronto was playing much better, the same holds true for Washington, who was just 4-13 SU (5-10-2 ATS) vs. winning teams during the second half of the season. Also, it's not like the Wiz are a strong road team either; they're record away from home is just 17-24 (both SU and ATS).  This is too short of a number as these teams aren't quite as even as the line suggests. Lay the points.

Toronto is pretty strong offensively (104 PPG overall) while the same could be said for Washington on the defensive end of the floor (97.8 PPG allowed).  Therefore, this game/series could very well come down to Washington's middling offense vs. Toronto's middling defense.  Fortunately for the Raptors, this game is at home where they allow about 2.5 points per game fewer than their overall season average. The Wizards conversely allow 1.5 PPG more on the road compared to their overall season average.  Two of the three regular season matchups were close, but the one that wasn't (played early in the year) was played here "North of the Border" and saw the Raptors prevail 103-84.  As a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 pts, the Wizards were just 2-10 SU/3-9 ATS in the regular season.

Perhaps Toronto's second half swoon can be attributed to them clearly having the division wrapped up by the All-Star Break.  A top four seed was a formality and them not ending up #3 in the conference may have been by design as it allows them to avoid Cleveland in a potential second round series. This is a franchise desperate for a playoff series win and they remember losing Game 1 here at home to Brooklyn last year.  Something to keep in mind is that only Golden State's Steph Curry and Klay Thompson averaged more PPG than Toronto's Kyle Lowry and Demar DeRozan among starting backcourts.  Lou Williams gives the Raptors the edge off the bench as well. 8* Toronto

8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET):  Normally, I would want no part of the Lakers as favorites. But this being an immediate revenge spot for them (after losing the front end of a home-and-home to the Kings Monday), plus the fact they are trying to avoid the worst single-season win percentage in franchise history, has me willing to "swallow the points" in this one.  Furthermore, Sacramento is a terrible road team; 10-30 SU for the year and allowing 108 points per game. The Kings will be w/o their two best players - DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay - here and they are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS the L6 visits to the Lakers.  Lay the points.

Both teams are locked into lottery position as the Lakers are guaranteed of finishing w/ the fourth worst record in the league while the Kings are sixth worst.  But as mentioned above, the Lakers do have the motivation of trying to avoid the worst single season win percentage in franchise history.  For most of March, however, they remained fairly competitive.  Lately though the bottom has dropped out, but I think at some point pride has to kick in and trying to avoid franchise infamy should help. Plus, playing the final game of the year at home helps too.

Sacramento has lost six straight road games and the fact they are off a win probably works against them.   Save for a four-game win streak late last month, the Kings have generally not been a good team off a SU win this year, going just 9-18 SU/9-16-2 ATS in that role.  Not having Cousins/Gay does them no favors here (even though they still beat the Lakers w/o them Monday), nor does being on the road where their defense is particularly atrocious.  Since March 6th, they've allowed 100+ in 11 of their 13 games on the road, including 113+ eight times. The fewest pts allowed by them in any of those contests was 97 and that was still in a loss.  Allowing as many points as they do on the road, it will be highly difficult to see them making up the difference w/o the services of their two best players. Motivation could be especially low tonight as they close the season away from home. 8* LA Lakers

10* Indiana (9:35 ET): Yes, the Pacers are somewhat overvalued in this spot, but that's because they are likely to be in a "must-win" situation. Sure, "must win" doesn't mean "will win," but still, taking points w/ them I feel is a good value.  Much here is dependent on the result of Orlando/Brooklyn, which has an 8:05 eastern start time. So you have to think that Indiana will be doing some scoreboard watching as the way things stand now, a Brooklyn loss would put them in the playoffs.  But if the Nets were to win, and that's pretty likely due to the fact they're playing the Magic at home, then that puts the Pacers in the proverbial must-win situation as they would lose the tiebreaker (head to head) w/ the Nets.  Take the points.

Memphis, on the other hand, doesn't have much to play for.  Seeding yes, but their chances of moving up are pretty slim and dependent on either the Spurs or Rockets losing (both favored).  Injuries have also really taken their toll on the Grizzlies.  Marc Gasol has been upgraded to probable for tonight, though his production has dipped dramatically as the season has worn on.  PG Mike Conley remains questionable w/ an ankle injury.   The team is also off B2B losses and Monday at Golden State wasn't as close as the 111-107 final score indicates as they gave up 93 pts in three quarters before the reserves came in and outscored the Warriors 41-18 in garbage time.  In three of the four games prior to that, the Grizz failed to score 90 points.

Indiana has won six straight and comes into tonight in much better form. They did have to play a double OT game last night, at home vs. Washington, but even on the road they look like a solid value b/c they're taking points.  Had the Pacers come in favored here, I certainly would have been more leery.  But the motivational edges lie w/ them. 10* Indiana

10* Toronto (7:35 ET):  Even before they officially clinched a playoff berth (shocking!) last night, I thought that Boston was overvalued in this spot as even a slight favorite over the visiting Raptors. The Celtics will finish either 7th or 8th in the Eastern Conference, depending on how the final two games play out, which means either Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round. Honestly, it may even behoove them to fall into eighth as I think the consensus opinion is that the Cavs are a worse matchup than the Hawks are. That's despite what happened over the weekend when the C's swept a home and home from Cleveland. But as I said in my analysis yday (when I played the Cavs), those results really meant little as Cleveland was resting starters.  My own personal power ratings suggest this should basically be a pick 'em game, thus take the points.

Toronto still has something to play for, namely seeding, as the Atlantic Division Champs will finish either third or fourth.  Again, like Boston, finishing fourth may be a better play for the Raptors as it would get them out of Cleveland's half of the bracket. But at the same time, finishing third would mean Milwaukee in the first round (as opposed to Washington) and this is a franchise desperate to win its first playoff series since the Vince Carter days.  I just played (and won with) the Raptors their last time out as they beat a Miami team fighting for its playoff life, 107-104 as 3.5-pt road dogs. It was the team's third consecutive SU win away from home.  This is a group that averages a healthy 105.6 points per game on the road for the season. 

Tonight also marks a revenge spot for the Raptors as they lost at home to Boston, 117-116 (as 3-pt chalk), at home back on April 4th. That is one of only two losses for them over the L8 games.  Kyle Lowry didn't play in that last meeting, but the point guard will be on the court tonight for Toronto.  Boston, despite being 6-1 SU/ATS its L7 games overall, is better to back in the underdog role (just 15-16 ATS when favored) and has been averaging nearly 8 PPG above their normal scoring average during that seven-game stretch.  They are due to come back "down to Earth." 10* Toronto

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET):  I played the Knicks their last time out and they rewarded me w/ a "shocking" outright win (as 11-pt pups) at Orlando, taking the game by a final score of 80-79.  But as you may have heard, that game contained one of the worst played quarters in league history as the two teams COMBINED for just 15 points in the second.  New York did actually lead by 11, on the road no less, going into the fourth quarter. But one could certainly argue that there were "no winners" in that one, least of all the Knicks, who actually potentially hurt themselves in terms of position for the draft lottery as they are now tied w/ Minnesota at 16-64 for the worst record in the league going into the final two games. Therefore, I expect tanking to be on full display tonight in Atlanta as they take on a Hawks team playing its final home game of the regular season. 

Though the Hawks have homecourt advantage in the Eastern Conference sewn up, I expect they'll give the requisite effort here w/ it being the final home game of the regular season. Plus, they're off a loss yday as well, to Washington by a score of 108-99 as nine-point dogs.   That was a "funky" line as Atlanta HC Mike Budenholzer rested four regular starters and went with a lineup that had just 29 career starts between them.  Budenholzer is expected to have his normal starting lineup, save for the injured Paul Milsap, on the floor tonight.   After such a lackluster performance yday, I expect the rout will be on early here, especially against an opponent who likely has no interest in winning to begin with.

Not surprisingly, the Hawks have beaten the Knicks both times they've played this season.  What's a little surprising is that the two wins were relatively close (six and seven points).  But both games were played very early in the season before it became obvious what a disaster the Knicks had become.  At home, Atlanta has won five straight by holding opponents to 84.4 points per game on 40 percent shooting.  The Knicks have lost 34 of their past 40 road games and are being outscored by 11 PPG away from home for the season.  Again, this game should not be close.  8* Atlanta

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET):  For the first time since LeBron James returned from that "sabbatical," the Cavs have lost B2B games. Both were to Boston, a potential first round playoff opponent, but I would read little into that as most of the starters (including James himself yday) were rested. HC David Blatt has said that James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and JR Smith will all be back in the starting lineup tonight for what should be the team's final "tune'-up" before the playoffs get underway.  They are catching Detroit off a rare blowout victory, and playing at home I expect this one to end up as a rout.  Remember that before "phoning it in" vs. the Celtics on Friday, the Cavs had not lost at home since early January. Lay the points.

Sunday marked Cleveland's worst loss of the season, but again, that means nothing since 80 percent of the starting lineup didn't even suit up.  Friday's front end of the home and home saw Irving sit out entirely while James and Love didn't play in the fourth quarter (lost by nine).  Remember that the Celtics are a team trying to make the playoffs, so the effort levels in those last two games aren't even comparable. Also, "punting" on the two games may have been a wise move for the Cavs, who I think would match up very well w/ Boston in Rd 1 at full strength.  The same is true tonight against a Pistons team they've beaten by near identical scores the last two times they've met and those games were in Detroit. From a value standpoint, things look great here as we're getting Cleveland at basically the same price they were at on the road for those L2 matchups.

The Pistons, meanwhile, are off their biggest win of the season as they beat Charlotte yday, 116-77 as 8.5-pt home favorites.  But this game is on the road where they are just 13-26 SU for the year and overall, they've won just 8 of the last 24 games.  Back to back wins have been quite uncommon save for a four-game win streak at the end of March.  Off their L2 wins, they lost by double digits the next game, both times.  Generally, the Pistons are a poor shooting team that can't come close to matching the Cavs offensively, even on their "best day."  10* Cleveland

8* Dallas (9:35 ET):  This will be the second straight game that the Mavs are drawing a sub-.400 foe that's coming off a rare win.  Things worked out well for them the last time, as they defeated Denver 144-143 (in double overtime) Friday.  Granted, in retrospect, they were a better value (opened as 4-pt dogs) there than they are here, but the Lakers aren't an opponent they should be very concerned about.  Yes, LA won Friday, but that was at home against Minnesota and just the fifth time since the beginning of March that they emerged victorious.  Of the previous three wins, two were by just two points and the other against Philadelphia.  Lay the points here as Dallas should win in a blowout.

The Mavs are somewhat under the radar right now as they are guaranteed to finish 7th in the Western Conference.  Obviously, motivation down the stretch could then be called into question, but after a rocky 2H of the season, they are going to want to play well heading into the playoffs as their first round opponent is likely to be an elite team.  Fifty wins is also still a possibility.  While normally coming off a 2OT game can be a major detriment, in this case fatigue should not be a factor.  PG Rajon Rondo was given the night off and the starters sat in the second overtime period.   They won't have Chandler Parsons tonight, but should still be okay.

Dallas is 3-0 SU vs. the Lakers this season, but has actually failed to cover the last two meetings. They were in an identical price range when the two teams met here at Staples Center last month.   As I said earlier, the Lakers have won only five games since that time and all of those were against sub-.500 teams.  Admittedly, they've also been a little more competitive than you'd think during that time, but off those last four wins they are not only 0-4 SU, but also 0-4 ATS, losing all of those games by seven points or greater.  8* Dallas

10* Milwaukee (3:05 ET):  I'm just not a believer in this Brooklyn team, which has now won 8 of its last 10 games, both losses coming against Atlanta.  Blowing out Washington the way they did Friday (117-80 as five-point favorites) certainly caught me by surprise and for the team, that win kept them in playoff position.  Currently, they are tied for seventh w/ Boston, but just one game ahead of ninth place Indiana.  So, the line here is certainly a reflection of the situation facing the Nets as the game probably carries more importance to them than Milwaukee.  That being said, the Bucks can clinch a playoff spot here and I cannot justify Brooklyn being favored on the road. 

Milwaukee won the first two meetings of the year w/ Brooklyn before losing in late March by two at the Barclays Center in triple overtime.  In the Nets' only previous visit here, they were 5.5-pt dogs, and that's right where my personal power ratings suggest the line for this game should be.  As a home dog, the Bucks have covered three straight times, including outright wins at the expense of Miami and Chicago.  Though they've regressed in the second half, this team is still 29-19 ATS in the underdog role and they are 4-2 SU/ATS as a home dog of three points or less.  Obviously, the line here is basically negligible, but that doesn't mean that the value still isn't w/ the home team. 

Over its last five games, Brooklyn has averaged 109.4 points per game, well above their overall season average (98.5 PPG).   Their defensive performance against Washington also a surprise.  Note, however, on the road they're allowing over 100 PPG this season. Coming off a double-digit win, they are 3-10 against the spread and after allowing 85 pts or less, they're 1-4 ATS.  Milwaukee is off a win as well, 99-91 at New York, as Giannis Antetokounmpo returned to the lineup after sitting against Cleveland.  I look for the Bucks to defend "home turf" in this one.  10* Milwaukee

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): When are people going to come to the realization that Miami simply is not a very good basketball team?  Sure, some slack "should be cut" over the season-ending injury to Chris Bosh and the fact that LeBron James went back home to Cleveland. But what remains is a team that does not deserve to make the playoffs, even though admittedly there will be two teams making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference w/ losing records.  The Heat hope to be one of them, but let's face it, this team is 28th in points, last in rebounding, 29th in assists and being outscored by roughly three points per game. Thus, they are not only unworthy of postseason involvement, but also certainly unworthy of being favored (even at home) against the Atlantic Division Champion Raptors.

Thursday may have marked a new nadir for this season for the Heat.  They were outscored 33-8 in the third quarter by Chicago en route to an 89-78 loss and now trail Boston and Brooklyn by two games for the final playoff spot w/ three to play.   It's not like this has been a strong home team either; they have a losing straight up record here and are an even worse 16-22 against the spread.  They did beat Toronto here, but that was very early in the season, back on November 2nd to be exact.  Last month, they lost by 10 "North of the Border."  

The Raptors made it B2B road wins w/ a two-point victory over Orlando last night.   I get that it's the second game of back to backs against a team desperately trying to make the playoffs, but it's now looking as if PG Kyle Lowry may suit up tonight (upgraded to probable) even though he played 33 minutes in his return from a seven-game absence last night.  Remember that Toronto is still playing for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference as they enter the day tied w/ Chicago for that position.  Miami is 12-19 ATS when favored this year and 0-6 ATS overall their past six games. Take the points  8* Toronto.

10* New York (7:05 ET):  Orlando is not a team that should ever be favored in this price range. Yes, I know the opponent is the horrible Knicks, but given the Magic's already poor 4-6-1 ATS mark as chalk, they cannot be endorsed laying double digits for the first time all year. They did recently win three in a row, but then returned to their losing ways w/ a two-point defeat here at home last night against Toronto. While an outright loss might be asking too much, I do expect a back and forth affair here from two teams w/ little to play for.  The Knicks have actually covered four of their last five, including last night (as 11-pt dogs) vs. Milwaukee.  Take the points.

Since the start of March, the Knicks have only won three times total and their last road win came all the way back on March 12th (Lakers), almost exactly one month ago.  I used to feel that this team was basically "unplayable," but now the pointspreads continue to grow more extreme, there is some value on them.  They've been competitive w/ Orlando in all three meetings this season, beating them once and losing twice by six points or less.  The spread was only -6 in favor of the Magic the last time they played (February 11th), and that was here in Orlando. The Knicks haven't declined by that much since that time and the Magic certainly haven't gotten that much better to justify the price increase by the linesmakers here.

I realize that the Knicks' main concern should be w/ ping-pong balls (ie Draft Lottery) and not winning and thus "blowing" their chance at the #1 overall pick in June. But the bottom line here is that I wouldn't bet on Orlando beating anyone by this many points.  They did recently beat Minnesota by 13, on the road no less, which started the three-game win streak that ended last night.  But that is their lone double digit victory since the start of March.   10* New York

8* Phoenix (8:05 ET):  The Pelicans made me look very foolish their last time out in losing at Memphis 110-74.  Of course, I wasn't the only one hurt by the loss as New Orleans' own playoff fortunes took a dive and now they enter the day tied w/ Oklahoma City for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  While there's no denying that the Pelicans are certainly a stronger team at home (26-13) compared to on the road (16-23), the shift in the line here from a March 19th meeting w/ Phoenix is incredibly dramatic and that's owed almost entirely to the fact New Orleans is chasing down a playoff spot. My own power ratings say this line is way too high, so w/ the Pelicans overvalued, I'll grab the points.

The Suns have lost seven of eight overall, but were competitive in recent road losses to Golden State and Dallas, falling by only a combined four points.  Overall, they've covered three of four, including a win against Utah.  I actually played against them in the lone non-cover, when they were blown out in Atlanta, but the Pelicans are not the same caliber team as the Hawks, nor are they in the class of Golden State or Dallas, the two teams Phoenix just hung with.  Wednesday in Dallas, they led by five w/ five minutes to go in a back and forth contest that saw 14 lead changes.  Though officially eliminated from playoff contention, look for them to keep this game close throughout as well.

New Orleans lost to Phoenix the last time they played, 74-72 as three-point dogs.  As I said earlier, that's quite the shift in line and more than just the change in homecourt advantage. It's owed to the fact the Pelicans are in playoff contention and the Suns are not, but in my opinion it's an overadjustment.  New Orleans has a losing ATS record as a favorite this year and also has three outright losses as home chalk in the -6.5 to -9 range.  The Suns are a solid 21-15 ATS on the road this year and I see them staying within the number.  8* Phoenix

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): Interesting line here. The last time these teams played saw the Hornets favored by six, albeit at home, yet they won and covered (final score 115-100). The Hawks rested starters in that one and they still have nothing to play for here, plus Paul Milsap won't be around again.  Thabo Sefalosha and Pero Antic are also out here, stemming from this bizarre nightclub situation that resulted in a stabbing that I still don't fully comprehend.  So, what I'm saying is that this looks to be a classic overlay as Charlotte still is mathematically alive for the playoffs.  The Hornets have beaten Atlanta twice this year, both times at home, but look for them at worst to slide in through the proverbial backdoor here. 

Charlotte did not look good in their last game, but that was also the second of back to backs and the loss in Miami the night before was particularly painful.  Tonight is basically the team's last gasp, so I expect a far better effort.  Injuries have certainly taken their toll, but remember that they won't be facing a full Hawks squad either.  Let's home that Kemba Walker can continue his recent string of strong efforts on the offensive end as he's been in double figures 12 of the past 16 games (15.4 PPG) since coming back from injury.  Defensively, the Hornets have been strong all year (97.0 PPG allowed) and particularly of late as they've held their last five opponents to just 91.2 PPG. 

The Hawks have everything wrapped up for the playoffs and just want to get there w/o losing any more players.  They will be the top seed in the Eastern Conference and w/ no Milsap (leading scorer & rebounder) and off three straight wins, I don't expect their best effort in this one.  Making this line even more interesting is that the vast majority of wagers have come in on the home team, but the number is actually coming DOWN.  10* Charlotte

8* Portland (10:35 ET):  Considering their 25-10-2 ATS record here, there haven't been many times this season that Golden State has been overvalued at home. But tonight looks to be one of those times. Part of it is that they are coming off B2B losses (for the first time since January and just the fourth time all season!).  At no point in the season have the Warriors lost three games in a row.  And while they likely keep that streak alive after tonight, I don't see them covering this spread against a Portland team still competing for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  Conversely, Golden State really has nothing left to play for as they have locked up homecourt advantage throughout the entire playoffs. Take the points.

The Blazers did play last night, but I don't see that being too big of an issue as they won easily at home, 116-91 over Minnesota.  It was a 19-point game at halftime, allowing LaMarcus Aldridge (who still led the team w/ 24 pts) and Damian Lillard to sit the entire fourth quarter.  Portland's biggest lead in the game was 28 points.  But unfortunately, they still trail both the Clippers and Spurs record-wise (by 1.5 games each), which means that the Blazers would NOT have home court advantage in potential first round series despite being the higher seed. "Stealing" this game could go a long way in earning that coveted homecourt as Portland is 32-8 SU at the Moda Center this season.  For what it's worth, they have outscored their opponents (but only by about 1 PPG) on the road this season.

But still, it's rare to find the Blazers as this prohibitive of an underdog.  This will be their first trip to Oracle Arena this season after losing twice to the Warriors at home, but they didn't shoot well in either game and Golden State is highly unlikely to match its red-hot 60.2 shooting from the last matchup.  That game, played two weeks ago, saw Portland lead 62-57 at halftime and make 15 three-pointers.  Yet, somehow they managed to shoot WORSE from two-point range.  That had a lot to do w/ both Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both sitting out due to injury.  After playing seven of its last eight on the road, the Warriors may have a tough time battling fatigue in this one. 8* Portland

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET):  Maybe you think that the Pelicans are due for a letdown after beating Golden State last night, 103-100, and perhaps you're right. But I'm willing to let it ride by taking the points in their matchup tonight at Memphis, who has been struggling over the final quarter of the season.  Over the last 19 games or so, New Orleans has been playing better than the Grizzlies and they have the point differential to prove it (+2.9 to -0.3). Therefore, taking this many points looks like a bargin, even in the second night of back to backs after factoring in homecourt advantage.  Memphis has lost four of six overall, scoring less than 90 pts in every loss, and in what figures to potentially be another low-scoring affair, siding w/ the underdog would have been the way to go regardless.

Don't look now, but the Pelicans now hold the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Coinciding w/ Oklahoma City slumping, New Orleans has won five of its last six including the big one over Golden State at home last night.  Anthony Davis scored 23 points in the second half, leading his team back from a 12-point halftime deficit.  While you could make the case that the Warriors have little to play for right now, take solace in the fact the Pelicans are back in the underdog role again tonight.  They are 24-11 ATS when taking points this season.  They are also 9-2 ATS the L11 matchups vs. Memphis, including SU wins the last two times they've played. 

New Orleans isn't as good on the road, but the generous number somewhat rectifies that for me.  Both wins over Memphis this year came at home, but as I mentioned the Pelicans have been a live dog all season en route to a top five ATS record in the league.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies appear to be fading fast as they only scored 83 points in a bad home loss to Washington on Saturday.  They shot just 42 percent overall, including 1 for 15 from three-point range, and while that's not likely to be duplicated, there have been issues scoring for awhile now.  Jeff Green may miss this game after leaving Saturday w/ back spasms.  10* New Orleans

8* Chicago (7:05 ET): For the first time in "many moons," Derrick Rose is listed as "questionable" on the injury report (as opposed to "OUT"), but regardless if the former MVP plays or not tonight, I expect the Bulls to roll.  That they've struggled against Orlando this year (0-3 ATS) and are off a loss should ensure the requisite motivation from the favorite here. Catching the Magic off rare B2B wins also helps as a bad team could be a bit "full of itself" and really there should be little interest in finishing the season strong considering draft position should be the main focus. Chicago has won and covered both of its games when in the -6.5 to -9 range on the road this year.  Lay the points.

I had the Bulls plus the points Sunday as they were able to stay within a generous number at Cleveland.  While they have struggled on the road throughout the second half (2-7 SU L9), there's no reason for them not to come out strong as they look to finish third in the Eastern Conference.  Orlando will have their attention as like I said earlier, the Magic have covered all three previous matchups this season, including an outright win in the Windy City.  But let's also keep in mind that before winning at Minnesota and Milwaukee, the Magic had dropped 10 of 11 games, seven of those by double digits.  Also, Chicago has won its last eight visits to Orlando. 

In my analysis for the Cleveland game, I discussed how this Bulls team was scoring way more than previous editions under HC Tom Thibodeau (100.7 PPG).  They didn't shoot the ball very well against the Cavaliers, nor did they do a good job of getting to the free throw line (just 21 attempts). Note though that it took two miracle half-court shots during the course of that game for the Bulls to lose.  Orlando doesn't have a player like a JR Smith, who is capable of making eight three-pointers in a game (ridiculous!).  Chicago's defense has still been improving though (91.8 PPG allowed L5) while the Magic are allowing 102.9 PPG at home for the season and 108.0 their last nine here at the Amway Center.  8* Chicago

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET):  I get that the Spurs are in peak form and that the Thunder are slumping, but judging by this line, I'd say that the market is in some dire need of correction. My own personal power ratings suggest that the number should be much closer to a pick 'em, so with that being said, all the value is on the home dog in this spot.  Yes, San Antonio just whipped Golden State.  But that was at home.  Yes, Oklahoma City has lost five of six, one of those coming in blowout fashion to these Spurs.  But the next four losses have all been by single digits, three of them by 5 pts or less and I say taking this points is the way to go in this revenge spot for them.

When these teams met two weeks ago in the Alamo, it was all Spurs in a 130-91 whitewashing. But consider the line there was only -7.5, so even with the easy cover, this does seem like a bit of an overreaction by both the linesmakers and the public (in betting the number up).  San Antonio is just 1-6 SU/ATS its last seven visits to OKC, none of which have come this season.  But on the road this year, the Spurs are a pretty pedestrian 20-18 SU w/ an avg point differential of just +1.0 PPG.  On the flip side, the Thunder are 27-11 SU at home (despite B2B close losses here).  The change in venue should make a big difference from the last time these two met.

Oklahoma City also is just one-half game up on New Orleans for the eighth seed in the Western Conference, so there sense of urgency here should be greater.   Save for the last time they met San Antonio, it's not like the Thunder have been playing all that poorly though.  Losses to Dallas and Houston here at home came by a combined seven points and in between they lost at Memphis. Previously, they'd gone 20-2 SU over a 22-game stretch here at home. Russell Westbrook remains a MVP candidate w/ his impressive numbers and while I'm not necessarily calling for the outright win here, I will point out that this is the Thunder's longest losing streak since before Thanksgiving.  10* Oklahoma City. 

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET):  Considering that these teams just played four weeks ago in Phoenix and the line was Atlanta -6.5, this number looks positively cheap by comparison. And it's not like the Suns did much that day that should have impressed the linesmakers.  Yes, they led 50-48 at halftime and finished w/ a 56-44 edge in rebounding, but other than from three-point range, they didn't shoot the ball well and ended up losing 96-87 while failing to cover the spread.  Things have not gone well in the desert since that time w/ Phoenix losing five of their last six (did win Saturday - by two) as injuries have really taken their toll, so despite the Hawks being w/o Paul Milsap (leading scorer & rebounder), I see the home team winning comfortably.

Speaking of comfortable wins, that's what Atlanta had the last time we saw them as they destroyed the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 131-99, shooting almost 60 percent for the game.  It was their most points in any game the last three years and included 17 made shots from behind the three-point arc.  Obviously, without Milsap, expecting a repeat performance would be somewhat foolish, but remember that Milsap's absence isn't going to affect the team's three-point shooting and we have a rather large margin to work with when it comes to dropoff.  Especially w/ Phoenix struggling to score the way they have; they're averaging just 91.4 PPG their last five and have failed to break 80 pts eight times since the final game in February.

The Suns are only three games back of Oklahoma City for eighth place in the Western Conference, but w/ only five games to play, things are looking rather bleak.  They did win a low-scoring affair on Saturday, beating Utah 87-85, but their chances of repeating that kind of defensive performance seem small as not only do they allow 105.5 PPG on the road, but Atlanta is averaging 103.6 PPG at home.  Phoenix has covered just 8 of 22 games against teams with a winning record during the second half of the season while the Hawks are a healthy 34-20 ATS when favored and continue to pace the Eastern Conference in both the SU & ATS standings.  8* Atlanta

8* Wisconsin (9:20 ET):  If just considering raw numbers, then you might come to the conclusion that Duke has been the most dominant team in this tournament.  After all, they've won their five games thus far by a whopping average of 17.6 points per game en route to also going 5-0 ATS.  But they've gotten somewhat of a favorable draw. Remember that Michigan State, despite the glowing narrative of Tom Izzo, was still a 7-seed that lost 12 times during the season. Gonzaga and Utah's offenses were somewhat neutralized by the "NRG Stadium Effect" and Robert Morris + San Diego State were clearly overmatched.  Wisconsin just beat the top two teams in the country, Arizona and Kentucky, and led most of the way in doing so. It appears to be the Badgers' year.  I'll call for Wisconsin to win the National Championship.

Wisconsin did lose to Duke, at home, in the regular season.  But there's surprisingly little takeaway from that game as both starting lineups will be different Monday night.  But if there is one takeaway to be had from that December matchup it's that Duke is highly unlikely to shoot 65% from the field again.  Meanwhile, the Badgers are almost certainly bound to improve upon their own 40% shooting from that contest.  This is a team that just played the top two defensive teams in the country and beat them both averaging 78 points per game.  Against Arizona, they averaged a frightening 1.33 points per possession, which I knew they wouldn't get against Kentucky, but that game still found a way to go Over despite only 116 total possessions.  The Badgers have been lights out from three-point range in this tournament, which is going to be key again here.

Wisconsin is a more experienced team than Duke and that experience has shown with some fantastic second-half performances in this tournament.  Frank Kaminsky is their best player and has averaged 22.6 points and 8.3 rebounds the last three games.  But one could make the argument that Sam Dekker has been the key to the Badgers' run as he's averaged 20.6 PPG on ridiculous 61.3 percent shooting in the tournament.  He had only five points in the regular season matchup vs. Duke and could likely be the difference-maker here.  Duke starts a number of true freshman, which hasn't been an issue so far, but likely will be on this stage.  8* Wisconsin

10* Over Wisconsin/Duke (9:20 ET):  Both national semifinals went Over the total and I expect Monday's Championship Game to do the same.  We have two teams that rank in the top three in terms of offensive efficiency (Wisconsin is #1!) and average over 72 points per game. Thus, this total looks a little low to me. I had the Over in Duke's 81-61 over Michigan State and while their defensive improvement continued (despite leaving the "friendly confines" of NRG Stadium), this will be the best offensive opponent they've faced in the tournament. Same for Wisconsin, who was surprisingly able to score 71 pts against Kentucky on Saturday despite the Wildcats' #1 ranking in defensive efficiency nationally.  Take the Over.

Wisconsin has scored at least 71 points in every tournament game thus far.  Duke has not allowed more than 61.  The latter trend is more likely to be broken here, in my opinion. For much of the year, Duke was pretty middle of the road in terms of defensive efficiency, but thanks to some favorable matchups and a favorable venue for the Sweet 16/Elite 8, their numbers have improved dramatically of late on that end of the floor. It should be noted that the 61 pts allowed to Michigan State were the most by any Blue Devils' tournament opponent thus far.  I have Wisconsin easily eclipsing that number in this one as they just averaged 78 PPG against the two top defensive teams in the country. 

All but one Badgers game has gone Over the total in this tournament.  All but one Duke game has stayed Under, that being the last one.  This is a rematch from the regular season when the Blue Devils went into Madison and won 86-70 as 4.5-point dogs thanks to a ridiculous 65.2 percent shooting performance.  While I can all but guarantee they won't be that hot tonight, you have to also figure that Wisconsin will be much better than their 40.7% shooting clip from December. To me, this is similar to the Duke-Michigan State matchup as those two went Over against another in the regular season, yet like here, the oddsmakers have decided to drop the O/U line for the rematch.  Duke is 5-1 Over its L6 neutral court games w/ a total of 135 to 139.5.  10* Over Wisconsin/Duke

10* Under Blazers/Nets (7:05 ET):  Normally, the NBA takes this night off, giving the NCAA Championship Game the marquee, but the reason this game is being played tonight is due to a makeup from Winter Storm Juno, which caused the original date of January 26th to be missed. Said Portland star LaMarcus Aldridge, "It's a long flight for one game. We'll try to take care of business."   Unfortunately for Blazers fans, "taking care of business" doesn't seem to include Aldridge, who along w/ Chris Kaman, Nic Batum and of course Wes Matthews all figure to miss this game due to various ailments. Through in the fact that both Portland and Brooklyn have been scoring well above their season averages recently and I feel that you have the recipe for an Under.

The Blazers have averaged 111.4 points per game over their last five, which includes a pair of 120+ point efforts against the Nuggets & Clippers.  But those games were also played at home.  Prior to downing the lowly Lakers on Friday, 107-77, the team had been held to 92 pts or less in three straight road games.  Overall, the team averages 102.9 PPG, so they are due to start coming down from recent outputs anyway.  Without several key contributors tonight, that dropoff could be quite severe, which is why this line is so far off from where traditional power ratings (including my own) say it should be.  Luckily, Portland has been getting the job done defensively, holding five of their last seven opponents to 91 pts or less. 

Brooklyn has exceeded its season average on the offensive end by a similar degree over its last five games as well.  They've averaged 106.2 PPG in going Over in all five, but one thing we know is they can't be any worse defensively than they were Saturday night vs. Atlanta when they surrendered 131 points on nearly 60 percent shooting.  But this depleted Blazers roster is not the Hawks & you'll note that earlier this year, these teams played to a 97-87 final (in favor of Portland).  I don't think that the Nets can keep scoring the way they have as they average only 97.9 PPG for the season.   They are 7-2 Under vs. Northwest Division opponents.  10* Under Blazers/Nets

10* Over 76ers/Knicks (7:35 ET):  Neither of these teams has been scoring much recently.  The Knicks haven't topped 100 in regulation since beating the Lakers all the way back on March 12th! That's a stretch of 12 consecutive games and it's not like things are getting any better either. They've failed to score 90 in six of their last eight, including a 101-87 defeat in D.C. to the Wizards Friday night.  Philadelphia, losers of fivei n a row, has scored 100+ just three times since March 4th.   Yet, that all being said, the linesmakers' expectation for points scored in this matchup of the two worst teams in the league is very low and there's a good chance it goes Over the total. That's because I don't expect much defense to be played at all. Look for both teams to go up and down the floor in something that barely resembles a legitimate NBA contest.

New York has in fact allowed 100+ in six of their past seven games.  One would actually have to go back to the last time they faced Philadelphia to find the last game that wouldn't have gone Over this low of a total.  All three games w/ the Sixers this season have gone Under, but the number has gotten progressively lower and here I feel we finally have something to work with.  The shooting has been all-around awful in the three prior matchups between the two, with only Philadelphia cracking the 42 percent mark one time. But that can't continue, can it?  Certainly not w/ both sides yielding over 100 PPG.  Over the L5, both are allowing more than 103.  This is one of the lowest totals for both teams, all season.

The Under is 24-15 in Sixers' road games this year, primarily due to them averaging only 88.2 points per game. I can't see them scoring that few here tonight.  Nor can I see the Knicks scoring fewer than 90 pts again as Philly had allowed 106+ in three of four games previous to last night's loss in Charlotte.  Eventually, teams have to start making shots, don't they? The Sixers have shot below 40 percent in B2B road losses while the Knicks were at just 36.9 percent vs. the Wizards.  Thanks to an all-around lack of defense, look for both teams to improve upon those numbers tonight.  10* Over 76ers/Knicks

8* Miami (6:05 ET): After opening, this line has shifted somewhat significantly. That's owed mainly due to the impending return of Paul George, who will be making his long-awaited season debut for the Pacers tonight.  But is it too late for Indiana? Maybe not. They did destroy Charlotte Friday night, 93-74 as 5-pt chalk, putting them 1.5 games out of the coveted eighth spot in the Eastern Conference.  Miami, following last night's tough loss in Detroit, is also now on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the postseason as they trail 8th place Boston (who won yday) by one-half game. So there's plenty at stake here, for both teams, Sunday night.  That usually leads me to want to take the points & I'm inclined to do just that here.

To expect much from George here tonight seems foolish.  His minutes will be limited (only 10-15 mins here) according to team president Larry Bird.  Remember that this is a Pacers team which has lost 9 of 12 and prior to Friday their only two wins had both been by five points or less. They still have a negative point differential for the year and are just 20-18 SU at home. To me, they certainly seem overvalued in this spot due to the news of George's return. All I know is that if Indiana doesn't end up making the playoffs, then they would have run a significant risk by allowing George to come back.  Given that I can't see this team making any kind of playoff run, they might be better served ending up in the Draft Lottery and acquiring a potential future superstar.

Miami is off a particularly brutal loss as they blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead last night in Detroit.  They couldn't get stops down the stretch and now find themselves on a three-game losing streak.  Playing on back to back days hasn't really been a problem though for the Heat as they are 9-5 ATS in the second leg this season, plus there have only been two times all season where they've dropped more than three games in a row.  We're basically betting against a version of Indiana that doesn't exist, one where George is healthy and ready to contribute.  I would not be surprised to see the Heat win this game. 8* Miami

8* Chicago (3:30 ET):  These teams last played in the final game before the All-Star Break, in the Windy City, with the Bulls dealing Cleveland a rare loss.  The Cavs had been 2-0 SU/ATS in the season series prior to that and do come into this afternoon on a 17-game home winning streak. But, despite the return of Kevin Love, this spread looks far too high.  It was just -4.5 the last time Chicago came calling to Quicken Loans Arena.  Factoring in Cleveland's resurgence, it should be higher here, but not quite this high as this should be a relatively low-scoring game, meaning that taking the points is the way to go.

The Bulls were w/o Jimmy Butler when they beat Cleveland back in February, and while this time Derrick Rose won't be in the lineup, you have to figure that Pau Gasol and his league-leading 50 double-doubles will improve upon his 33 percent shooting in the three prior matchups. Overall, Chicago has won six of eight, and just held Detroit to 82 pts in a win Friday night.  They didn't cover mind you, but it was also the eighth consecutive game they were favored.  The team's record as an underdog isn't as good as I'd hoped, but they certainly seem "due" to cover a game that the linesmakers aren't expecting them to win.  They've also gone 9-9 SU vs. LeBron James since the start of the 2010-11 season. 

We're also starting to see the Bulls' trademark defense improve.  They uncharacteristically ranked only 13th in points per game allowed through 56 games, but over the last 20, they're giving up about 4.1 fewer.  That may not sound like a lot, but the 95.1 PPG allowed ranks third during that time.  Combine that w/ a Thibodeau-era high 100.8 PPG on the offensive end (.913 pts per possession) and you actually have a more complete Bulls team in year's past, even w/o Rose.  Butler has been a large difference-maker, particularly in getting to the free throw line, which the Bulls do at the third best rate in the league (25.2 attempts per game).  Before the blowout out win over Miami on Thursday, remember that Cleveland both lost to Brooklyn and failed to cover (won by just one) against Philadelphia.  8* Chicago

8* Kentucky (8:49 ET): The undefeated Wildcats got their first real scare of this tournament in the Elite 8 as they barely got by Notre Dame, winning 68-66 on two late Aaron Harrison free throws.  For me, things were also a bit scary there as I had the Under (which I like here as well).  I can see why bettors would be eager to take Wisconsin in this one, as in some respects the Badgers are a "better version" of Notre Dame.  But to me, this matchup is all about market value. Kentucky was an 11-point favorite against Notre Dame and just a five-point favorite here.  The Badgers may be better than the Irish, but not that much better, and this is a rare instance of the value actually being on UK (who I have yet to lay the points w/ in the tourney).  It will only be the sixth time all season that the Wildcats are favored by single digits and they are 2-0 ATS when laying seven points or less.

The two times Kentucky was favored by seven points or less were against Louisville and Kansas.  They held those two to a stunning average of just 45 points and while that's not realistic for Saturday, I do think after playing Notre Dame, the Wildcats will be better prepared defensively for Wisconsin.  Even after facing the Irish, UK is still only allowing 52 PPG in the Tournament. They are averaging 70 and that's with some inconsistent play from Karl-AnthonyTowns, who came alive in the Notre Dame game, scoring 25 pts on 10 of 13 shooting. He and Willy Cauley-Stein could be a matchup nightmare for Wisconsin in the post as the Badgers' game against Arizona showed you can get Frank Kaminsky in foul trouble.

After not being an underdog a single time all year, Wisconsin is now taking points for a second straight game.  But looking back at that matchup vs. Arizona, there are a couple of things I don't see repeating themselves. One is the Badgers averaging a preposterous 1.33 points per possession.  Again, Kentucky has led the nation all season in defensive efficiency and allows just 53.9 PPG. Sam Dekker has been out of this world for the Badgers, but Kentucky's length should bother him, at least on the perimeter. Wisconsin uncharacteristically was fouling a lot against Arizona, and I think that the Harrison twins can get them to do the same here.  Kentucky got its scare in its last game, so I expect them to be better defensively here, and it's also worth noting that they are 3-0 ATS this season when playing w/ five or more days rest.  8* Kentucky

8* Under Wisconsin/Kentucky (8:49 ET):  As I said in the writeup for the side, I like the Under for this Final Four matchup as well.  I had to sweat out my Under play in the Elite 8 when Kentucky beat Notre Dame 68-66 (thank goodness, no OT!), but even w/ the linesmakers lowering their projection here, I don't see this game being nearly the threat to go Over. The Notre Dame game was arguably Kentucky's worst defensive game of the entire season while Wisconsin is arguably coming off its best offensive performance of the season.  Therefore, I'll look for a little regression/progression to the mean here as the Wildcats not only keep the Badgers in check enough to cover the spread, but also for the Under to cash as well.

Wisconsin, Sam Dekker in particular, was just plain ridiculous against Arizona.  They averaged an astounding 1.33 points per possession, which is a number almost impossible to duplicate, especially against an opponent that leads the nation in defensive efficiency at 85.6 pts per 100 possessions. For the year, Kentucky only allows 53.9 points per game and thanks to that whitewashing of West Virginia in the Sweet 16, they've actually been slightly better than that in the Tournament.  Wisconsin also shot a preposterous 12 of 18 from three-point range in the Elite 8, again a performance that will be virtually impossible to duplicate here. Notre Dame actually only shot 4 for 14 from behind the arc last weekend against UK. 

As I said in my analysis for that Notre Dame-Kentucky matchup, the undefeated Wildcats have been an Under bettor's best friend this year w/ 23 of their 37 lined games going that way, including 14 of 16 vs. the non-conference slate.  The Under is 3-0-1 for them in the tournament thus far w/ only 16-seed Hampton pushing, mainly because they decided "what the hell" and played at a fast pace.  Wisconsin is more inclined to use the shot clock and assuming they aren't making their shots at the same rate we've seen the last couple games (Kentucky's length should bother them some), then we'll be seeing a much lower scoring game than is expected.  Over the last five games, the Badgers have averaged 80 PPG, which is well above their season average.  8* Under Wisconsin/Kentucky

8* Toronto (7:35 ET):  The last time these two Atlantic Division rivals met was back in January, here in Toronto. The Raptors were 11.5-point favorites for that game and covered, winning easily by a final score of 109-96.  Now, almost three months later, the market appears to have shifted dramatically as the Raptors are basically only getting credit for home court advantage. Even factoring in Boston's success in the underdog role during that time and Toronto's regression, I think an eight-point shift in the line is an over-adjustment by the linesmakers as my own personal power ratings say this line should be around -6.5. While both teams lost last night, I see the home team (fighting for 3rd in the East) being the hungrier of the two.  Lay the points. 

Toronto is still w/o PG Kyle Lowry, which is a bit of an issue, but they were still able to remain competitive w/ a surging Brooklyn team last night on the road.  Defense was an issue for them at the Barclays Center, giving up 114 points total including two quarters of 34+ points.  Note that during their three-game SU/ATS win streak coming into that game, they had been allowing an average of just under 93 points per game.  Defensively, the team is typically far more stout at home, where they allow only 98.2 PPG, compared to their overall average (101.2 PPG).  So expect improvement on that end of the floor here tonight.  Adding to the motivation is the fact that the Raptors, who are guaranteed no worse than the 4-seed because they've already clinched the Atlantic Division, must still finish w/ a better record than the fifth place Wizards or that means no home court advantage. 

Boston also lost last night and I'm happy to report I went against them.  I didn't like them as a favorite at all against Milwaukee and sure enough their own defensive issues resurfaced as the Bucks ended up shooting better than 52 percent from the floor en route to a 110-101 outright victory.  Even back to their customary underdog role, the Celtics don't seem like a good bet here getting this few points as their road record is just 15-22 straight up and they give up 102.6 points per game. Toronto should take advantage as they come in averaging 104.2 PPG overall. 8* Toronto

10* Under Nets/Hawks (7:35 ET):  Similar to Indiana, who I've successfully played Under the last two games, Brooklyn has been scoring way above their season average of late. I was lucky enough to spot the trend w/ the Pacers, who after topping 100 pts in six consecutive contests averaged just 90 PPG in the two where I played the Under.  Tonight, I see things playing out in similar fashion for the Nets as they visit East-leading Atlanta.  For the year, Brooklyn is averaging just 97.7 points per game.  Over the last five games, they are at 103 PPG on a pretty ridiculous 55 percent shooting. That's certainly "due to come down" and them playing on the road in the second game of B2B's seems like as good a time as any to take the chance that it will. The Hawks are allowing just 95.5 PPG at home this year. Take the Under.

The last time these two played there were plenty of points scored in a 113-102 Atlanta victory. But the teams combined to go 40 of 44 from the free throw line there and a combined 37% from three-point range as well.  Both numbers will be difficult to duplicate.  Also, while the Over did cash (easily), note that the total for tonight's game is more than 10 points higher than it was back in January.  The first meeting of the year between these two teams, which had a total of 201, saw a final score of 98-75, again in favor of the Hawks.  This adjustment by the linesmakers is clearly in response to the Nets' last four games, all Overs. It's looking like an over-adjustment, at least in my opinion.

Atlanta, who has not played since Tuesday when they were beaten in Detroit, 105-95, is 7-2 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite.  Note that in three of their four games previous to that defeat, the Hawks had surrendered less than 90 points.  The average point total for both of these teams, for the season, is right around 197 pts, indicating that there is pretty good value here on the Under. Atlanta has hit 25 three-pointers in the two games vs. Brooklyn this year, again an average that will be very difficult to duplicate tonight and the Nets are 11-6 Under playing w/o rest. 10* Under Nets/Hawks

10* Over Michigan State/Duke (6:09 ET): Both of these teams went 4-0 ATS in regional action, so it's hard for me to come to any sort of conclusion regarding the pointspread.  As for the total though, I feel that there is much to be discussed. Somewhat uncharacteristically, the public is all over the Under for this Final Four matchup, so much so that we could see just the fourth NCAA Tournament game since '05 to have two-thirds of the action on the Under. At first glance, it's somewhat easy to see why. All four of Duke's Tournament games have stayed Under the total as have eight of their last nine games overall. Michigan State's O/U record is an even 2-2 in the Tournament, but because they're from the Big 10, they're not used to seeing totals this high.  I think the linesmakers have successfully baited the public here and I'm going the other way.  Take the Over. 

These teams did play early in the year and it was Duke prevailing - by a score of 81-71.  Though both teams shot well overall, Michigan State was only 6 for 10 from the free throw line and 5 of 20 from three-point range. Normally, this is a pretty good three-point shooting team (38.6% YTD) and while they're not so good from the charity stripe, Sparty does average 12 makes from there per game, which is double the amount they had in the regular season matchup.  While some will want to call this total too high, note that it's now several points lower than the closing number of 144 back in November, thanks to the public betting it down. I really see a ton of value on the Over in this one.

In understanding Duke's string of Unders during this tournament, realize that they just played their last two games at Reliant Stadium in Houston, which has basically been death to shooters for the past decade.  So that at least partially explains Duke's improvement on the defensive end as for most of the year, they were barely Top 50 in efficiency. Playing Robert Morris & San Diego State in the first two games also helped.  Opponents have shot just 42 percent on two-pointers and 24 percent on three-pointers against Duke in the Tournament, numbers that are due to go up.  Prevailing wisdom is that Michigan State will try and slow the pace down here, because they are the underdog, but the Over is 6-1 when Izzo's team has taken points this year so I'm not buying that.  Duke averages 79.5 PPG for the year, so they'll get theirs, and MSU averages more than you think (71.4 PPG), so look for there to be far more scoring than expected in this one. 10* Over Michigan State/Duke

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET):  Here we have a line that's drastically inflated due to the fact New Orleans is still in the playoff hunt and Sacramento most certainly is not. But laying points with the Pelicans here seems like a bad idea given their 15-21 SU road record.  Sure enough, they are also just 3-6 SU (2-7 ATS) the last nine times they've been a road fave of 3.5 to 6 pts, including 1-4 SU/ATS marks this year alone.  Consider that New Orleans was only a 6.5-pt favorite - at home - the last two times they took on the Kings.  Plus, in their only prior visit to Sacramento this year, granted back in November, they were three-point dogs.  I see a ton of value on the home dog in this spot.  Take the points.

These two did just play last week and it was the Pelicans coming out on top by a score of 102-88.  However, it was a close game at the half (NO led by just four).  What's interesting to note is that at that time, the Pelicans were on a four-game losing streak while the Kings had inexplicably won four straight. So, you could see how a then-desperate New Orleans team, playing at home, would be likely to win and cover.  Here though? They've now won three in a row, since beating the Lakers and Minnesota (which doesn't mean much) and will be playing tomorrow night in Portland. This could in essence be a lookahead spot for the visitors.

Meanwhile, the Kings have now lost three straight, including a close one at Houston Weds night. DeMarcus Cousins, who had 39 pts and 20 rebounds vs. the Pelicans, continued his recent strong play w/ 24 pts, 21 rebounds and 10 assists.  Unfortunately for the team, they had no answer for James Harden's 51 points.  Back at home now, Sacramento is far more respectable, only being outscored by about a point per game for the year. They've won three in a row here, granted all against Eastern Conference teams, but still this team has been fairly competitive of late.  My own personal power ratings indicate that this line should be about -2.5, so that's pretty far off from the actual number.  10* Sacramento

8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): While it seems a little dangerous to go back "to the well" again w/ the Bucks after I just cashed them Weds night in a 95-91 upset of Chicago (as 5-pt home dogs), Boston should not be favored by this many points.  The Celtics' ATS success has largely been predicated on them typically being undervalued as the dog, but tonight the reverse is true. For the season, HC Brad Stevens' team is just 13-15 ATS when favored & that's after covering in a 100-87 win over Indiana two nights ago.  So they are no less prone to a letdown than Milwaukee is here and I think taking the points is the way to go in this one.

The Bucks have been great in the underdog role all season, going 27-19 against the spread.  As mentioned above, the points were not even necessary Wednesday as they beat the Bulls outright in a big revenge spot.  They were aided by poor shooting by Chicago, both at the free throw line and from behind the arc, plus 20 offensive rebounds were a big help as well. That one was at home and while similar to last year the Bucks can't seem to win on the road down the stretch (11 straight losses!), it's not like the Celtics are a dominant home team. They're just a .500 team (19-19 SU) in Beantown this season. 

Boston's problems lie on the defensive end where they give up 101.5 points per game.  Among Eastern Conference teams, only Orlando allows more entering play on Friday. They were fortunate in that they allowed only 87 to an Indiana team that was due for regression Weds night, but I don't see that same good fortune occurring here.   When these teams played in Milwaukee in early February, the line had the Bucks favored by six, so that's a pretty dramatic shift even after factoring in the change in venue.   Too dramatic in my opinion, thus the play on the Bucks, who I could easily see taking this game outright.   8* Milwaukee

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): As I alluded to in the writeup on the total, I also like the Hornets plus the points here.  This figures to be a low-scoring affair, so points will be at a premium. The road team also seems to be in better form having won two of its last three, including a big 102-88 beatdown of Detroit Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Indiana is off B2B killer road losses at Brooklyn and Boston that have put a severe damper on their already fading playoff hopes. Charlotte is 17-5 ATS its L22 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 pts, including a 7-2 ATS mark this year, so again I'll be taking the points.

Similar to the linesmakers increasing the total for this fourth matchup of the season between these teams, I think there's value w/ the spread as well, which is higher than previous installments.  The Pacers have been two-point favorites all three times they've faced the Hornets so far and while they've won two of three, those two wins have been by a total of just three points.  Granted, the last two meetings were in Charlotte, but one of those was a loss, and again in a toss-up kind of matchup, taking the points is the way to go.  Both teams should be approaching tonight w/ a "playoff-like" mentality.

Charlotte just destroyed Detroit Weds night, building a 20-point lead midway through the second quarter. They were coming off a loss at home to Boston two days prior, but in their three games previous had beaten Atlanta and lost twice by just a three-point margin.  One would have to go back nearly a month to find the last time Indiana won a game by more than six points.  They have a negative point differential for the season, and are just +1.4 PPG at home, so they shouldn't be laying this many points against a fairly comparable opponent.  8* Charlotte

10* Under Hornets/Pacers (7:05 ET):  This is a very important game for two teams on the fringes of playoff contention. Charlotte, off a big 102-78 home win over Detroit Wednesday night, will look to make it two in a row at a place that's been a real "house of horrors" for them (11 straight losses at Indiana).  Fortunately, the host Pacers haven't been playing well of late, including B2B killer road loss to Brooklyn and Boston in their last two games. I like the Hornets plus the points here (see elsewhere in this package), but I'd also like to call attention to the total which is significantly higher than where it's been for the previous three matchups between these teams.  That screams value to me and I'll look for this game to finish Under the total. 

This is the fourth time these teams have played this season. The closing O/U lines for the previous three were: 180, 184, 184. So basically we have a double digit increase by the linesmakers for tonight's game.  That's a complete overreaction by the linesmakers based on recent results, at least in my opinion.  You'll recall that I just played Indiana Under the total in their last game and after after uncharacteristically topping 100 pts in six consecutive contests (all Overs), they were held to just 87 in Wednesday's loss at Boston. Charlotte, after averaging 107 PPG its last four, is probably due for a similar decrease tonight. I still like them as the dog mind you, because I feel points will be at a premium all around.

The last time these teams played, the Hornets shot 57% from three-point range and 46.8% overall and still couldn't win. The final score was 103-102, a win for Over bettors, but note that the first two matchup both stayed Under w/ less than 175 total pts scored each time.  Indiana was a dreadful 4 for 36 from three-point range in those first two meetings. I talked about regression towards the mean in my analysis for their previous game and how it was due on both the offensive & defensive ends of the floor given that they average just 96.9 PPG while allowing 97.5.  The same can now be said for Charlotte, who averages even fewer points per game (95.2) and is top five in points allowed (97.1).  10* Under Hornets/Pacers

8* Golden State (10:35 ET):  On paper, this just looks like a terrible matchup for the visiting Suns. Not only have they dropped four straight (also 0-4 ATS) overall, but due to a variety of issues (injuries chief among them), there's been a massive decrease in scoring w/ this group. That's not good news when having to hit the road and face Golden State, who lately has been as sharp as ever, winning 10 straight games and covering the spread in each of the last eight. While Phoenix's scoring continues to go down, the Warriors continue to pace the league offensively here at home where they average a whopping 113 points per game. Although they're a double digit favorite, my own personal power ratings indicate that there is a little bit of value on the chalk here.

It certainly doesn't help Phoenix's case that they come in allowing 105.5 PPG on the road. But the decrease in scoring has been the concern for HC Jeff Hornacek, who has watched his team's playoff chances almost completely fade away.  The Suns were destroyed up in Portland Monday, losing 109-86 as 8.5-pt dogs.  Already playing w/o PG Brandon Knight, the team lost Alex Len to another injury in the 2H and ended up falling behind by as many as 31.  It was their second straight double digit loss where they allowed 109 pts. Neither Knight nor Len is expected to suit up tonight and that's big time trouble for a team that's averaging only 92 PPG its last five contests. Seven times this season Phoenix has lost by 20 or more.

As for Golden State, they own the distinction of having both the league's best SU and ATS record.  At home, they've gone 25-9-2 against the number, which is pretty frightening when you consider the kinds of spreads they usually have to lay here.  Overall, their avg MOV at Oracle Arena for the season is 15.7 pts per game.  They just swept a four-game road trip that saw them play at three of the top Western Conference contenders (Portland, Memphis, Clippers) and with this being the team's lone home game in a two-week span, plus it being on national TV, I anticipate no letdown this evening.  They've beaten the Suns by 18 and 19 pts the last two times they've faced them. 8* Golden State

10* Stanford (9:00 ET):  One could certainly make the case that Miami (FL) is lucky to even be in this NIT Championship Game as the Hurricanes have had to make B2B second half rallies to overcome Richmond & Temple and done so w/o the services of PG Angel Rodriguez. Now, they are likely to be w/o starting 7'0" center Tonye Jeriki, who suffered a concussion in the last game.  Thus, I'm going to stick w/ a Stanford team I was on in their semifinal win, 67-60 against Old Dominion, and call for the Cardinal to cut down the nets Thursday night at MSG.

Miami's four NIT wins have come by a total of 16 points, three of them by four or less.  Playing at Richmond in the Quarterfinal round last week, they overcame a 30-18 halftime deficit, scoring 45 pts in the second half and dominating the glass.  But the key in not only that come from behind win, but also the one against Temple on Tuesday was that both opponents were much worse than usual from three-point range. Richmond shot just 24 percent from behind the arc, roughly 10 percent below their YTD average, while Temple was a horrific 0 for 15 in the second half alone.  The comeback wasn't quite as dramatic Tuesday, but now minus more than 20 PPG w/ Rodriguez & Jeriki both out, I don't think the team will be able to live relying on leading scorer Sheldon McClellan so heavily again.

Stanford has covered three of its four NIT games thus far, same as Miami, but the difference is that the Cardinal have been favored in every game and really been in control more than some of those final scores indicate.  I talked about the Quarterfinal win over Vandy in my analysis Tuesday as Stanford led that game by double digits w/ 2:30 remaining and it was a pair of missed FT's that resulted in their lone non-cover in this tournament. (I had Vandy!). Tuesday against ODU, they led by as many as 21 in the second half before actually having to rally in the 2H for the win and cover.  Neither team is overly-reliant on the three-point shot, but Stanford does shoot it better and they too are coming off a game where an opponent couldn't make one.  Take the better (and healthier) team.  10* Stanford

10* Under Northern Arizona/Evansville (7:00 ET):  When you have a tournament final pitting the fourth place team from the Big Sky against the fifth place team from the Missouri Valley, the level of prestige can certainly be called into question, but the bottom line is that for both Northern Arizona & Evansville this year's CIT Championship Game will mean something. This does seem like a lot of points for the Purple Aces to be laying in a championship environment, especially given the Lumberjacks' exploits both on the road (12-3 ATS) and as an underdog (9-3 ATS). (Obviously, there's a great deal of overlap w/ those two trends).  But I say forget about the side and concentrate on the total as this number too looks high given the season-long averages.  Take the Under.

Evansville had gone Over in six straight contests before their 79-66 semifinal win over Tenn-Martin on Tuesday.  Some of those O/U lines were higher than this one, but so too was the number two nights ago.  The key had been the Purple Aces scoring about five points per game more than their overall season average over their last five, including three straight w/ 80+ pts to open CIT play.  But note that in their final five MVC games, the team never broke 67 points.  Some of that has to do w/ the slower tempo in their own conference, but still I can't see both their offensive & defensive numbers continuing to exceed YTD levels, particularly in this kind of situation.  They did hold Tenn-Martin to "only" 66 pts Tuesday (despite the Skyhawks making 13 of 27 three-point attempts!) and at the same time I cannot see Evansville repeating its 57 percent shooting performance from that game. 

This total also seems high when you consider NAU is already 7-2 Under this season when the O/U line falls into the 140 to 149.5 point range.  The Lumberjacks are not a team that shoots the ball particularly well either as they're at just 40.4 percent for the year and have been slightly below that the L5 games despite seeing an actual slight increase in PPG.  The Lumberjacks are not going to make even close to the same number of three-pointers than Tenn-Martin did Tuesday and fortunately Evansville only averages about four makes from behind the arc per game as well.  Only one of NAU's last six games has gone Over in regulation.   10* Under Northern Arizona/Evansville

8* Utah (9:05 ET):  This is a revenge spot that I can only assume the Jazz have been pointing to ever since dropping a game in Denver last Friday, 107-91 as two-point dogs. At the time, that was their fourth consecutive loss, but that losing streak aside this is a team that's been playing very solid basketball for a much longer stretch than you might think. Since losing to the Nuggets, they've bounced back w/ division wins over Oklahoma City & Minnesota, which were double-digit covers to boot.  For Denver, this is the middle game of a three-game trip and after three off-days, I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out flat.  That won't be the case for the revenge-seeking Jazz.  Lay the short number.

The Minnesota game on Monday also happened to be a revenge spot for Utah, who improved to a very impressive 34-13 ATS their L47 in such situations w/ the easy win and cover.  Believe it or not, but this team also ranks #1 in the league in terms of points allowed, at 94.9 per game.  They've held their last two opponents under 90 pts, making it 36 times this year they've allowed 96 or fewer.  Defense is likely once again to be the difference maker in this one. When these teams played last week, the Jazz surrendered their highest point total in the L35 games.  But the numbers say that it should be Denver that should have more concern about that end of the floor as their the ones who are allowing a staggering 105.1 PPG away from home this year.

My personal power ratings indicate this line is not high enough as Utah is basically dead even this year in terms of points scored vs. allowed while Denver has a negative point differential and is playing on the road to boot.  The Nuggets are just 11-26 SU on the road this season after suffering a 120-114 loss in Portland Saturday night. Without the home court advantage this time, I don't see them scoring nearly as many points as they did the last time vs. Utah, who have a .667 winning percentage (really!) since February 6th at 16-8 straight up.  Denver was the only team besides Golden State to score 100+ against them in regulation last month and I anticipate revenge will be sweet here as they improve to 5-1 ATS this year when laying between 3.5 and 6 pts here at home.  8* Utah

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET):  I realize that the Bucks have been trending in the wrong direction for some time now, but I certainly cannot "sign off" on this line which has the Bulls favored by nearly as many points as when they HOSTED Milwaukee back on February 23rd.  I concede that Chicago won that game, 87-71 as seven-point chalk, putting them at 3-0 SU/ATS head to head w/ the Bucks this season.  But because of those results, plus the fact the Bulls are off three consecutive wins and covers as favorites, we have ourselves an inflated line tonight. Milwaukee still remains one of the league's better pointspread teams, particularly in the underdog role where they've gone 26-19 ATS.  Take the points here.

Once upon a time, it appeared as if the Bucks were a lock to finish no worse than sixth in the weak Eastern Conference. But times have changed and they now are just two games up on the seventh place Heat (who lost last night).  That and the fact they have triple revenge make this a game "worth circling" if you're Milwaukee.  Chicago has a revenge game of its own on the horizon (vs. Detroit), followed by a big showdown vs. LeBron and the Cavs, so this is likely to be the division game that garners the least amount of attention for them.  Not so for Milwaukee, who badly needs this game.  In handicapping this game, I couldn't believe that the Bucks have lost nine straight at home to the Bulls.  Overall, the team's last five wins have all come here at the Bradley Center.

Michael Carter-Williams was not on the court for the Bucks when these teams last met, so that's a boost.  Also, it should be pointed out that the Bulls have not exactly had the most challenging schedule of late as their last game was against the Knicks.  They'd also dropped six of seven on the road (only win at Philadelphia) before winning at Toronto last week.   Off three consecutive wins, the team is just 3-8 ATS this season, and not having played since Saturday I can see the Bulls coming out flat.  The Bucks, who are coming off a 101-88 loss to Atlanta, have typically bounced back well from a double digit loss this season, going 9-5 ATS in that role.  I still have these teams rated fairly evenly and my own personal power ratings say this line should basically be a Pick 'Em. 10* Milwaukee

8* Under Pacers/Celtics (7:35 ET):  OK, so I lost playing Indiana Under the total last night as they went to Brooklyn and dropped a critical game to the Nets, 111-106.  While I was correct in predicting that the game wouldn't be as high scoring as the last time those two met, the decrease ended up being not nearly enough (17 points).  Overall, it was the sixth straight Pacers game to finish Over the total (8-1 L9).  Taking on a Boston team that just scored 116 in its last game and ranks among the worst teams defensively in the Eastern Conference doesn't seem like a "natural fit" for that Over streak to end, but once again I feel we're dealing w/ an inflated total and I do like the Under.

Consider that when these teams last met, which was less than three weeks ago, the O/U line closed at 193 pts.  The final score was 93-89, in favor of the Celtics, which obviously resulted in an easy win for Under bettors. Now, we have a total that's over eight full points higher.  That screams value, at least to me.  There were only three Pacers games in March that had a closing O/U line of 200+ pts, yday among them.  The Over is now 26-11 in Indiana road games, but that's a trend that seems like it's due to regress towards the mean as the team only averages 96.4 points per game away from home while allowing just 98.6.  Their defensive numbers have been way below par of late, and that's something I expect to change here. 

Helping Indiana's defense is the fact that Boston has not been shooting the ball well of late, at least here at home.  They've shot just 39.3 percent overall, and 27.3 percent from three-point range, in dropping their previous three home games.  They were above 50 percent in Monday's win at Charlotte, so I expect them to be somewhere in between those figures here tonight.  The combined scoring in Celtics games has been quite erratic of late, so coming off B2B high-scoring affairs, I think we're due to see one go "the other way."  8* Under Pacers/Celtics

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  While my personal power ratings don't indicate that Golden State should be an underdog in any setting, if there is going to be any matchup where you'd actually consider laying points against them, it would be this one as they face my #2 overall ranked team on the road.  The Clippers are every bit as hot as the Warriors right now having won seven straight while going 5-1 ATS the last six.  GSW has won nine in a row, going 8-1 ATS, but for them this is a fourth straight road game on a trip that has taken them all around the country.  Motivation could start to be an issue for the team that is now all but guaranteed to finish w/ the best record in the league (has already clinched home court in the West).  This being a national TV game, I expect the Clippers to show up "big time."

Los Angeles is 27-10 SU at home this year, averaging 106.2 PPG, so they are one of the few teams that can actually keep pace w/ Golden State.  Note that as a favorite, they did defeat them here (back on X-Mas), by a score of 100-86 and that was while shooting below 40 percent from the field.  Lately, albeit against some pretty weak competition, they've really turned it on, winning five of their last six by double digits.  They just won three straight on the road, over the Knicks, Sixers and Celtics, averaging over 116 points per game in the process.  Their average MOV during the seven-game win streak, which has coincided w/ the return of Blake Griffin, is 14.9 PPG, so they won't be intimidated by the fact the Warriors have won by an average of 18.3 PPG their last nine.

Interestingly, Golden State is just 3-5 SU/ATS as an underdog this year.  That includes 2-4 marks as a road dog of three points or less.   Since the All-Star Break, it's happened just two times (them getting points) and they lost both times, at Cleveland and at Denver.  Remember that 11 of the Warriors' 13 losses this season have come on the road.   Along w/ Atlanta, they are the only other team above 60 percent against the spread this season.  Meanwhile, the Clippers have struggled at the betting window, but that's mainly because of high spreads.  This line here is a good value.  10* LA Clippers

10* Stanford (9:25 ET):  I played against both of these squads in the Quarterfinals of the NIT, and while the results look very similar, they actually were anything but.  For starters, Stanford failed to cover in its game vs. Vanderbilt, but I was lucky there as the Commodores essentially trailed the whole way, by as many as double digits w/ 2:30 left in the game. Two missed free throws by the Cardinal in the final three seconds allowed me to escape w/ the cover, taking +3.5 in a 78-75 SU loss.  As for Old Dominion, they actually covered their last game, but needed a somewhat miraculous desperation heave to defeat upstart Murray State at the buzzer as they too very nearly blew a late lead in regulation.  ODU has the better overall record, but Stanford hails from the much better conference and that is why they are favored, deservingly so.  Lay the points.

Old Dominion has actually failed to cover every NIT game thus far w/ their last two victories coming by a combined four points.  Against Illinois State, they made the go-ahead basket w/ just 19 seconds left, and scored just 50 points on 36.4% shooting.  They were much better from the field against Murray State, who conversely had an awful shooting night (especially for them) at 37.7 percent including 5 for 21 from three-point range.  Thus, it's not too impressive that they needed the buzzer beater just to prevail there.  Also, this game is not in Norfolk where ODU has now won 24 straight.  They are just 7-7 SU this year off-campus, scoring three points less than their overall season average while allowing roughly six more per game.  Only one of those losses was by fewer than seven points.

Stanford had covered its first two NIT games, beating Cal Davis and Rhode Island in comfortable fashion before the unnecessary close call against Vandy.  Though the Cardinal have actually been a below .500 team since the start of February, that's not really indicative of their level of play as five times they lost by six points or less, three of those by three points or less.  I'm not expecting a blowout by any means here, but Stanford is definitely the better team and should win fairly comfortably. 10* Stanford

10* Under Pacers/Nets (7:35 ET):  This is the third and final matchup between these two teams this season.  Because of the first two both going Over, the O/U line has progressively gotten higher, by about four points each time.  As a result, we now have a little bit of value on the Under for tonight's rubber match, especially after Indiana has gone Over the total in each of its last five games.  The Pacers' defensive issues have been really surprising, not to mention costly, as the team now badly needs this game as they enter Tuesday's action one-half game back of Boston for the eighth and final playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference.  Brooklyn is tied for 8th place, but percentage points behind the Celtics w/ two games in hand. I expect a "playoff-type" mentality here and points to be at a premium.  Take the Under.

Indiana's defensive regression isn't the only surprising thing at play here. Brooklyn has been scoring more than usual of late, having topped the 100-point plateau in four of its last six games, including B2B victories over Cleveland and the Lakers.  I was on the latter, which was also the third time in a row the Nets held their opponent UNDER 100 pts.  For the year, this is a team that averages just 97.5 points per game & save for two pretty ridiculous performances this month, it's not like their shooting the ball that well either.  Overall, the Under is 41-31 in all of their games this season.

I obviously don't see a repeat of the last time these teams met, which resulted in a 123-111 Brooklyn victory as they shot a preposterous 61 percent from the field, one night removed from a triple OT win over Milwaukee.  After that, they would go onto score just 91 pts in B2B games and go Under in their next three.  Indiana actually averages fewer points per game than Brooklyn (96.9) and that number drops a bit further out on the road. Also note that the Nets are the only team in the league w/ a worse home than road record.  They scored just 85 pts in the Pacers' only prior visit this season.  Yes, Indiana has been an Over team most of the season, but the linesmakers have overadjusted the number too much here. They will not match Sunday's season-best 58.8 percent shooting from three-point range.  10* Under Pacers/Nets

8* Memphis (8:05 ET):   What in the world is going on w/ the Grizzlies?  Sunday saw them lose for a third straight time, all by double digit margins. At least yday was a road game (at San Antonio) whereas the other two defeats were their two largest at home all season (Cleveland & Golden State).  Looking at those three opponents though, I suppose one could make a clear case that those are the best teams in the league right now and Memphis just isn't at that level.  Fortunately for tonight, they return home and face a big drop in class w/ Sacramento coming to town.  The Kings had won four straight prior to a loss in New Orleans Friday, but I view this as a big bounce back game for the Grizzlies.  Lay the points.

As they showed in their last game, Sacramento is not a good road team - at all.  They have just 10 wins away from home all season.  Only four teams have fewer.  Away from home, they give up 107.6 points per game, a horrible number, and while the defensive numbers looked better during the recent win streak, consider they played Washington, Charlotte and Philadelphia at home.  Even the Suns, who they beat in Phoenix, have been struggling mightily on the offensive end of the floor lately.  Meanwhile, despite what's happened over the course of the last three games, Memphis still allows only 94.3 PPG at home.  You have to take into account the larger picture over a smaller, albeit recent, sample size. 

The last two times these teams have played were in Sacramento and the Grizzlies came into those games favored by 5 and 6.5 points.  So w/ the change in venue, there appears to be a little bit of value on the home side here. Granted, Sacramento won the last meeting, late last month. But they have covered just five of their last 19 games against teams with winning records and I expect this to be a game that the Grizzlies take very seriously and treat as a "must-win." For the Kings, who just had a four-game win streak snapped and are well out of playoff contention, I can't see them matching the intensity.  8* Memphis

10* Houston (7:35 ET):  These teams are trending in opposite directions.  The Rockets won again yday, putting them at 7-1 SU their last eight.  Their own run, coupled w/ Memphis going into the tank, now has Houston in second place in the Western Conference.  That would be huge for them as the way things currently stand Dallas, not San Antonio, would be their first round opponent!  Toronto was once second in the Eastern Conference, but they fell off long ago and now find themselves in fourth thanks to a bad second half to the season. They've dropped 13 of 19, and their last three wins were against: Minnesota, New York and the Lakers.  Not an impressive group of opponent, huh?  Take the points w/ the better team.

The Raptors' win over the Lakers was on Friday and I was on the Under, which cashed by over 25 pts.  Toronto won by holding the Lakers to only 83 pts, but a similar defensive effort here is unlikely for a variety of reasons.  One, is that they allow 101.2 points per game, one of the highest numbers in the Eastern Conference.  Two, is that they are playing the Rockets, a team that averages 104.4 PPG on the road.  That's actually a higher number than what they average at home.  Toronto has now officially clinched the Atlantic Division, guaranteeing them a top four seed, and won't have PG Kyle Lowry for this one. Houston won't have Dwight Howard, but they've proven they can win w/o him, so I'm less concerned there. 

The reason I'm not concerned about the Rockets being w/o Howard is James Harden, who continues to carry the team.  His ability to create points on drives, whether it's getting to the free throw line or not, must be reckoned with.  Also, after going to Washington and winning yday, Houston is now 22-6 SU (18-9-1 ATS) vs. the Eastern Conference, including a perfect 9-0 straight up vs. the Atlantic Division.   For the sake of comparison, Toronto is 2-7 SU/1-7-1 ATS vs. the much better Southwest Division.   They are also just 9-16 ATS L25 games overall and 8-18 ATS off a double digit win.  10* Houston.

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): With both of these teams within one-game of the eighth and final playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference, this game carries tremendous importance.  The line is perhaps somewhat inflated because the Hornets are at home, and it is a little bit scary that they're just 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts, but then again Boston is just 14-22 SU on the road and playing the second of back to backs.  The Celtics lost yday, at home, to the Clippers by a score of 119-106 and it wasn't even that close as they trailed by 26 entering the fourth quarter.  Charlotte, after losing six of its previous seven, beat a depleted Hawks roster 115-100 here at home the last time we saw them.  Lay the points.

Charlotte has won two of the previous three matchups w/ Boston, losing the last one on the road, by eight as 1.5-pt dogs.  At that time, it was the third win in a row for the Celtics, who have cooled off significantly.  After going 10-3 SU over a 13-game stretch, they've since dropped five of seven and one of those two wins was by four over the sorry Knicks.  I suppose the Hornets are on a similar trajectory. The loss to Boston was actually their only defeat in a seven-game stretch and since then they're 3-8 SU L11.  But, again, they are at home and the much better defensive team, which I think is the difference maker here.

The Hornets allow just 96.8 points per game at home, and they are top four overall in points allowed.  Boston allows 102.6 PPG on the road.  The only team in the Eastern Conference that allows more overall is Orlando.  Charlotte shot the ball well in their last game, 52.5 percent overall and 46.2 percent from three-point range.  With the poor defense, Boston's issues are furthered by the fact that are shooting just 25.9 percent from three-point range their last six games.  8* Charlotte

10* Detroit (6:05 ET):  My own personal power ratings indicate that the Pistons are the better team here and w/ the Heat still owning a losing record on their home floor, I'll gladly grab the points here.  Especially because the Pistons have won and covered four straight, the most recent being an easy one at Orlando two nights ago where they prevailed 111-97 as a short road chalk.  Detroit won the only previous meeting this season, by 17 at home, last month.  Miami is off a poor road trip where they lost three of four and didn't score more than 93 pts in any game. 

I've said it before & I'll say it again:  Miami is not a very good team. They rank 28th in points, last in rebounding and 28th in assists per game.  The fact that they are 3rd in points allowed has saved them somewhat, but it's not enough when you average just 90 PPG the last five contests like Miami has.  They lost by 13 at Atlanta Friday night, despite the Hawks scoring only 10 points in the fourth quarter.  Injuries have really taken their toll on this team as Hassan Whiteside's absence makes them even weaker on the boards, if that's possible.  As a favorite this season, the Heat are barely cashing at a 40 percent clip. 

For the sake of comparison, Detroit has topped 100 pts in four straight games.  HC Stan Van Gundy finally seems to have found a lineup that works and interestingly that's come w/ Greg Monroe out of the lineup.   PG Reggie Jackson now has two triple doubles in the last five games.   The Pistons are only being outscored by less than two points per game for the season and are 28-20 ATS when taking points at the betting window.  10* Detroit.

10* Gonzaga (5:05 ET):   When I look at this Elite 8 matchup, I see the better team getting points.  It's not like Gonzaga is demonstrably better than Duke, but the points do seem like a premium considering the Zags' only two losses this year were each by three points, one in OT at Arizona. This will be just the second time all year that the Bulldogs come in as the underdog; the first being Arizona.  These are two of the best offensive teams in the entire country, while both are fairly mediocre defensively, but that's nullified somewhat by the history of poor shooting here in Houston at Reliant Stadium.  In the end, the fact that Gonzaga doesn't rely too heavily on the three-point shot will be the difference here as they advance to their first ever Final Four.

Duke is infamously now 3-0 ATS in this Tournament after the "controversial" cover Friday night vs. Utah.  The win made the Blue Devils 6-1 SU this season in games decided by six points or less, a pretty fortunate record if you ask me & that includes 2-0 in OT games.  Something else that Duke was extremely fortunate on against Utah was that the Utes scored only 12 second-chance points despite 18 offensive rebounds.   Getting back to the issues of shooting at this venue, other than freshman Justise Winslow, the rest of the team was just 1 for 11 on two-point attempts outside the paint.  The Blue Devils' reliance on freshman also bears mentioning here as Gonzaga's roster is clearly the more experienced of the two here.

That Duke-Utah game also offered Gonzaga a blueprint on how to defend Jahlil Okafor. Points in the paint will likely determine the winner of this game.  Gonzaga had 42 of those vs. UCLA, the most allowed in any game by the Bruins the L2 seasons. Remember that the Zags lead the nation in field goal percentage at a pretty ridiculous 52.4 percent. There have been six games this season where they shot 60 percent or better, including that impressive performance vs. Iowa in the Round of 32. Consider that the 74 points Gonzaga scored vs. UCLA were their fewest in a game this month.  Take the points.  10* Gonzaga.

8* Brooklyn (3:35 ET):   This may seem like a dangerous spot to lay points w/ a team like the Nets, especially as they come off B2B wins, the last one a real shocker - 106-98 over Cleveland.  Somehow, despite being subpar at best, this team has managed to stay in the playoff hunt.  That "somehow" is of course by virtue of playing in the very weak Eastern Conference.  They enter the day one-half game back of Boston (who hosts the Clippers later Sunday), so there's a good chance that after today's results the Nets could find themselves as a playoff team.  The opponent being the Lakers helps too.  Thanks to the motivational edges, I'll side w/ Brooklyn here.

This will be the Lakers' fourth straight road game, over a six-day span.  I played the Under in their last game, and won it easily, as they finished w/ just 83 points in a double-digit loss at Toronto.  Overall this month, this once proud franchise has lost 11 of 14 games.   Two of those wins came at the expense of Philadelphia and Minnesota.  So, in other words, things aren't going very well right now in Laker-land.  Defensively, they rank 28th and allow 106.5 PPG on the road.   

Brooklyn already beat the Lakers earlier this year, in LA, as three-point favorites 114-105.  So, there's a little bit of value w/ this number w/ the switch in venue.  It's not like that game was a long time ago either; it took place late last month.   Beating the Cavs right now is no small order & the Nets held them to 8 for 30 from three-point range.  Any potential letdown is nullified by the playoff race, also it's tough to imagine the Nets not turning things around at home where they've gone just 13-20 SU this season. Most of their remaining games in the regular season are at the Barclays Center.  8* Brooklyn.

8* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET):  Things have gone downhill pretty suddenly for Utah, who lost for a fourth straight time last night, in Denver by a score of 107-91 as two-point dogs.  The previous two games, both here at home, were two-point losses.  The number here was bet up rather quickly in the direction of the Thunder and I can't say that I'm surprised as they will be looking to bounce back from their worst loss of the season, which came Wednesday in San Antonio by a score of 130-91.  That's a downright shocking final for a team that had won its previous four and six of seven.  With a three-game lead for the final playoff spot in the West, OKC can't afford to be dropping any more games, so look for the expected bounce back to take place here.

Granted, the Thunder do not have a good road record, which is why I've played against them in similar situations this year.  But they also haven't been coming off a 39-point loss before.  By many metrics, Wednesday was their worst game of the season. They allowed 71 points in the first half, their most in any game this season, and their shooting percentage of 40.0 was their worst in the L14 games.  The Kevin Durant situation is now a "done deal" as they know he's not coming back this year and in a way I think that having closure on that will help.  They're 12-6 the L18 games w/o Durant and their record since the All-Star Break is the third best in the league, trailing on Golden State and Cleveland.

Utah's defense has slipped noticeably the last four games where they've allowed 100+ three times.  They hadn't allowed 100+ even once in their previous 18 games.  A major culprit has been opponents' three-point shooting and that will likely be an issue again tonight as OKC has been at 39.1 percent from behind the arc its last nine games.  Russell Westbrook played a bad game vs. San Antonio. While the team's over-reliance on him is concerning and he was unlikely to maintain his averages of 30.3 points, 9.1 rebounds and 11.1 assists from the L18 games, he will play better tonight.  The recent play of Enes Kanter has also been encouraging.  8* Oklahoma City

10* Under Notre Dame/Kentucky (8:45 ET):  After watching these two teams combine for 160 total points in a pair of comfortable (or in UK's case, REALLY comfortable) Sweet 16 victories, the public has decided that it likes the Over in this Elite 8 pairing, but I believe the big difference maker Saturday night will be the unbeaten Wildcats' defense.  Whether or not that means they cover the spread, I do not know, but I do like the Under here as Notre Dame is not going to have the kind of shooting night that they did vs. Wichita State on Thursday. There, the Fighting Irish made 55.6 percent of their shots while averaging 1.23 pts per possession, the highest by any WSU opponent this season. A repeat of that is unlikely.

I say that because Notre Dame got to 81 points despite hitting "only" nine three-pointers in the game. They scored 38 points in the paint, taking advantage of their size, but good luck doing that against the height and length of Kentucky.  Also, in the 2H vs Wichita State, the Irish went a preposterous 75% from the field overall and that's when they did their damage from behind the three-point line as well, going from 6 for 8.  The only team to have a better shooting half in this Tournament than the Irish did Thursday was Xavier against Georgia State in the Rd of 32 and you'll recall that I played the Under in the Musketeers' next game, a winner Thursday night vs. Arizona.  Note that Notre Dame's first two Tournament games both went Under and that they are 6-2 Under this season when price as an underdog. 

One could make the argument that since Wichita State's defense was so highly regarded that the Irish could still have some success here offensively.  They can, but only to a degree as this is a major step up.  Kentucky ranks #1 nationally in defensive efficiency and just held West Virginia to only 39 points on 24.1% shooting, a Sweet 16 record.  Opponents are shooting just 34.8 percent for THE SEASON against the Wildcats and averaging just 53.5 PPG. The Under is 6-1 when they play on a neutral court (2-0-1 in the Tournament) and 13-2 vs. non-conference opponents.  On offense, there is a concern for UK and that's leading scorer Aaron Harrison dealing w/ a dislocated finger.  10* Under Notre Dame/Kentucky

10* Under Warriors/Bucks (8:35 ET):  Golden State just continues to roll as they blasted Memphis last night (in Memphis!), 107-84 (-3) for their eighth straight win and sixth consecutive cover.   Caught here playing in the second night of back to backs, I wouldn't want to lay the number w/ them, although my own personal power ratings do indicate that they may be a tad bit undervalued when it comes to the line.  But what I do like here in this matchup vs. Milwaukee is the Under as five of the Warriors' previous six opponents have failed to break 100 pts and the Bucks' offense has been pretty erratic lately.  Looking back, this is a pretty high total for a Bucks game as when these teams played earlier this month, they stayed Under there as well. 

The number isn't quite as high tonight as it was on March 4th when the Warriors hosted the Bucks & won 102-93, laying 13.5 points (total was 204.0). But, given the result and change in venue, that was to be expected.  Golden State averages a ton of points at home and while 106.6 PPG on the road is "far from shabby," it's a full six points per game lower than what they average at Oracle Arena.  The Under is 20-16 in all Warriors' road games this year & tonight it's unlikely that they'll duplicate their 50.7% overall shooting from the first meeting vs. Milwaukee.  They were also 14 of 34 from three-point range in that game.  Last night, they went 16 of 31 from behind the arc, plus they also turned 19 Grizzlies' turnovers into 32 points.  Those kind of numbers are difficult to duplicate on a nightly basis.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee, who is 3-0 Under this season at home when the total is between 200 and 204.5, is highly unlikely to match their own hot shooting from the last game.  They finished at 53.4 percent in their 111-107 win over Indiana.  That was the most points scored in regulation by them in any game since the All-Star Break. In four of their previous six games, they had failed to score more than 90 points.  Lost in all of Golden State's offensive prowess is that they've held opponents to an average of just 91 points their last five game. 10* Under Warriors/Bucks

10* Arizona (6:05 ET):  The 2-seed is favored over the 1-seed here, but that was to be expected considering that most power ratings have Arizona higher to begin with, plus you have the revenge angle from LY's Elite Eight where the Badgers (+3.5) handed the Wildcats a 64-63 loss in an overtime classic.   There, interestingly enough, 'Zona was the 1-seed. Now, it's time for them to turn the tables and exact revenge in a game they've been waiting a year for.  Note that while it hasn't happened in many, many years, the last 7 teams we've had an Elite 8 rematch in the NCAA Tournament, the team that lost the previous year ended up taking the rematch. That's what I see happening here. 

Wisconsin's National POY candidate Frank Kaminsky had a game for the ages last year, pouring in 28 points on 11 of 20 shooting and grabbing 11 rebounds.  But remember that the Wildcats were also missing Brandon Ashley, a 6'9" forward that is averaging 12.1 points and 5.2 rebounds this season.  They also didn't have freshman Stanley Johnson, their leading scorer this season (14.1 PPG). Ashley is the team's second highest scorer, so as you can see while Wisconsin is basically the same team they were last year, Arizona definitely appears better on paper.  This will also be the first time all season that the Badgers come in as the underdog, though the line is so small here that it's rather irrelevant. 

Neither of these teams had an easy time in the Sweet 16 as both had to come from behind in the 2nd half.  After recording comfortable victories over TX-Southern & Ohio State on the first weekend, Arizona overcame poor overall shooting (.407) vs. Xavier to pull out an eight-point victory.  The good news though is that the Wildcats fared better against the zone, something they struggled w/ early on vs. Ohio State.  Wisconsin, meanwhile, stole the cover late against North Carolina as they won by seven laying six. The Badgers did a shockingly good job on the boards & in the paint against UNC and eventually got the game to their pace. But one thing I don't see repeating itself is the play of Sam Dekker, who had a career-best 23 pts Thurs on 9 for 9 shooting. Remember that w/ this game being played in LA, Arizona should have a massive edge in crowd support. 10* Arizona

10* Utah (9:45 ET):  Unlike the other three #1 seeds, Duke covered its first two tournament games.  So it's not surprising to see that the public has bet the Blue Devils heavily in this matchup. But despite underdog Utah being far less heralded, I see this as an even matchup where taking the points may be a luxury we don't even need.  I played the Utes in their first tourney game, a very impressive blowout of trendy Stephen F Austin and then after a slow start they had little problem w/ Georgetown in the Round of 32. Duke has not been challenged yet, first drawing overmatched Robert Morris, then a San Diego State team that was dealing w/ a widespread illness. I smell a potential upset here. Take the points.

Nationally, I don't think people understand just how good this Utah squad really is.  Over the last three seasons, they are a remarkable 59-29 ATS in all lined games and that includes a 25-12 mark as underdogs (3-1 this year).  They've gone 21-7 ATS out of conference.  A combination of defense and strong post play are why the Utes have advanced fairly easily thus far.  Holding Stephen F Austin to only 50 points (on 33.3 percent shooting) is very impressive when you consider the Lumberjacks were a top ten team nationally in PPG and top five in field goal percentage.  Then, against G'town, the Utes shot 57.9 percent from the field while contesting the vast majority of the Hoyas shots on the other end of the floor. Big man Jakob Poeltl has been huge, literally and figuratively, thus far.  Not just because he's scored 30 pts in two games either.  He has nine blocked shots and is a big reason why the Utes have allowed just 20 PPG in the paint total in the tournament, the fewest of any remaining team.  Utah also has a senior point guard (Delon Wright) that I really like. 

Compared to the Utes, Duke is a far less balanced basketball team.  We know that the Blue Devils are very good offensively, but on the defensive end, they rank outside of the top 40 in efficiency.  Meanwhile, Utah joins Kentucky and Arizona as the only two teams to rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  Getting the better defensive team, plus the points, is a great value and Utah is also 3-0 ATS this season when playing w/ 5 or more days rest.  I see this game coming down to the very end.  10* Utah

8* Houston (8:05 ET):  The Rockets are somewhat difficult to figure out.  They currently are in third place in the loaded Western Conference, yet I don't think anybody (myself included) thinks they are one of the three best teams the Conference has to offer.  Yet, they have been pretty consistent and unlike teams like Memphis and Dallas they continue to have a positive point differential over the last quarter of the season.  One thing that they generally do very well is take care of business against bad teams as they're 24-4 SU vs. foes w/ a losing record, going 17-10-1 ATS.  I'm not afraid to lay the big number here as Minnesota is allowing 108.4 points per game on the road.

This will be the fourth and final meeting of the season between these two teams.  Houston has won each of the first three, including a neutral site game in the early part of the season.  It was an 11-point victory (as eight-point chalk) when they last met, here in Houston, at the end of last month.  So as you can see, the asking price is far greater this time around.  But deservedly so as the T'wolves have dropped eight of 10 w/ the two victories coming by a combined five points.  They just lost to the Lakers, at home, on Wednesday while Houston has won five of its last six overall including B2B road wins over Indiana and New Orleans. 

All three previous matchups have been high scoring (3-0 for Over bettors) w/ Houston being remarkably consistent, finishing w/ 113, 114 and 113 points scored.  I'd expect somewhere around that number again here given Minnesota's defensive issues plus the fact the Rockets have averaged a solid 106.4 PPG its last five games overall.  Houston also only shot 41% in the last meeting, but as per usual got to the free throw line a lot (thanks to James Harden), but even there they were only 67.4 percent.  I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockets score 120+ in this game and remember they now have Dwight Howard back in the middle as well.  Meanwhile, the Minnesota roster currently resembles a M*A*S*H unit w/ as many as seven players likely out for tonight's contest.  8* Houston

10* Under Lakers/Raptors (7:35 ET):  I realize that playing the Under with a Lakers team that allows a ghastly 106.9 points per game on the road seems a bit dicey, but note that in four of their last six games overall they have held the opposition under 100 pts, including both Utah and Philadelphia under 90.  Toronto actually averages fewer PPG at home than on the road and despite topping 100 pts in three straight games they continue to come out on the losing end more often than not.  They've lost 13 of 18 , yet they are rightfully big favorites here in a game they almost "have to have."  I'll call for them to "tighten up" on the defensive end tonight, leading to a probable victory and more importantly, an Under.

In addition to scoring fewer PPG at home than on the road, the Raptors also allow about six points per game fewer at home compared to away.  Surprisingly then, the Under is just 20-16-1 in their home games, but that may have to do w/ the fact that totals are typically lower than this one.  Now these teams did fly past a higher number earlier in the year when they met in Staples Center, but take note that final score (129-122 in favor of the Lakers, who were 7-pt dogs) was a byproduct of overtime w/ 33 additional points scored in those extra five minutes of play.  It was also very early in the season.  A big reason for the Raptors' continued struggles is that PG Kyle Lowry remains out w/ a back injury and he's not expected back tonight. Backup Greivis Vasquez is unlikely to match his career-high of six three-pointers, set Wednesday vs. Chicago, again tonight. 

Also, the Lakers are unlikely to shoot the ball at at 60 percent clip as the Bulls did there. Pay little mind to the fact LA has won two of three as those wins came over Philadelphia and Minnesota.  Another thing about that early season upset of the Raptors is that Kobe Bryant led the way w/ 31 points.  Lowry led the Raptors w/ 29.  So the leading scorers for both sides from that game are going to be missing in action here.  The Lakers are 8-5 Under in March while Toronto is 7-3 Under this season coming off three consecutive Overs.  10* Under Lakers/Raptors.

8* Louisville (7:35 ET):  This is a big revenge spot for Rick Pitino' Cardinals, who lost the only regular season matchup w/ North Carolina State by a score of 74-65 as 10.5-point home favorites.  Obviously, the line was going to be lower this go around at a neutral setting, but I view this as an over-adjustment by the linesmakers.  NC State is not a great team by any means.  Yes, they have some impressive wins this year, including ousting the top seed Villanova last weekend, but both tourney opponents thus far have done the Wolfpack many favors and made mistakes we should not expect from Louisville here. I am pretty shocked that the public is actually siding w/ the underdog here.  Lay the small number.

Coming into this Tournament, Louisville was not exactly regarded as capable of making a deep run.  They went just 5-5 SU over their L10 games and barely surviving 13-seed UC Irvine made it appear as if the Cardinals would not escape the first weekend.  But they turned in a very good performance against Northern Iowa in the Round of 32, scoring 1.20 points per possession while at the same time holding the Panthers to just 39.1 percent shooting.  A key stat to remember is that last year (against Kentucky) was the first time HC Pitino ever lost in the Sweet 16.  The Cardinals are clearly better than their record when you consider that six of their eight losses are to teams still left standing in the "Big Dance." 

Meanwhile, NC State comes in w/ 13 losses on the year and historically that is not a great sign as over the L10 years there have been three teams to have that many in the Sweet 16 and all three lost in this round, doing so by an average of 23 points per game.  In the first matchup w/ Louisville, the Wolfpack held the Cardinals to just 33 percent shooting while at the same time shooting 45 percent themselves.  I expect a reversal of those percentages here tonight.  Yes, the since dismissed Chris Jones led L'ville w/ 20 pts in that first matchup, but I don't see Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell combining to go 4 for 16 from the field again either. Rozier, in particular, has been fantastic in the Tournament.  Also, L'ville was just 57 percent at the foul line back on Valentine's Day.  That number is very likely to improve here as well.  8* Louisville

10* Gonzaga (7:15 ET):  Laying this many points in the NCAA Tournament can be risky by this line seems awfully low, doesn't it?  Especially since Gonzaga won by 13 in Westwood earlier this season.  Now we're getting a near identical number on a neutral floor.  The 'Zags turned in an incredibly impressive performance in the Rd of 32, beating Iowa (who had turned in a similarly impressive performance two nights earlier vs. Davidson), 87-68, and there's little doubt in my mind that they are the team that will advance here.  As I said when I played UCLA in their last game, they've gotten some good fortune so far in this Tourney, first benefiting from a bogus goaltending call against SMU, then drawing a very weak UAB team in the Rd of 32.  I look for Gonzaga to win big here. Lay the points.

The Bulldogs of Gonzaga have lost two games all year, both by just three points, and one of those was to Arizona in OT.  They lead the nation in field goal percentage (.524) and are 10th in points, 30th in rebounding and 6th in assists per game.   They've averaged 86.5 PPG in their two tourney wins, and just shredded Iowa's defense to the tune of 61.5% shooting (6th time this year the Zags shot 60% or better), making all six uncontested three-pointers they took.  On defense, they held the Hawkeyes to just 1.01 points per possession.  That was a very impressive overall performance against a good Iowa team.  I think that because of past Tournament failures many are underrating these Zags, which is a mistake because this is probably Mark Few's best team since he came to Spokane. 

History is not on UCLA's side here.  Over the last 10 years, there have been only three other teams to advance to the Sweet 16 w/ 13 or more regular season losses. Those three have all lost, by an average of 23 points per game.  When the Bruins hosted Gonzaga earlier this year (UCLA's only home loss), they shot 47 percent from three-point range and still lost by double digits.  That obviously does not bode well for tonight as the advantage UCLA had on the inside over UAB won't be present here either.  Back in December, Gonzaga held them to season lows of 22 points in the paint and nine second chance points.  Gonzaga shot 58.5 percent from the floor in that game.  This shapes up to be another one-sided matchup for the Zags.  10* Gonzaga

10* Under Xavier/Arizona (10:17 ET):  Arizona has proven that it can score, as they dropped 90 points in their first tournament game, an easy win over Texas Southern (that they still didn't cover).  But after watching them struggle against the 2-3 zone early vs. Ohio State & shoot just 36.5% from the field in that third round matchup, I doubt we'll be seeing anything close to that 60%+ shooting we saw in the Rd of 64, as they get set to take on pesky Xavier as a double digit favorite. Something else we aren't likely to see is the underdog Musketeers shoot better than 67% from the field like they did Saturday vs. upstart Georgia State. Despite a high volume of betting on the Over for this Sweet 16 matchup, we've hardly seen the number move (in fact it's dropped at some shops), which leads me to believe the smart money in this one is on the Under.

Prior to the sensational shooting game they had vs. Georgia State, Xavier's previous four games had all stayed Under the total.  They held a tired Ole Miss team to just 32.9% from the field Thursday and only 57 points, which was five fewer than the Rebels scored in the second half alone against BYU in "Opening Round" action.  They did allow Georgia State to shoot 56.5%, normally a scary number, but in that instance it didn't matter as the Musketeers' own shooting percentage was the third best in any NCAA Tournament game in the past 15 years!  I would say that it's a virtual lock that both field goal percentage numbers drop Thursday against Arizona.  Xavier is a pretty good shooting team to begin with (47.7%), but they'll be facing an opponent that's holding teams below 40% for the year.  Xavier's 47 percent shooting from behind the three-point line is also due to come down.

As for Arizona, they were bailed out by the three-point shot against Ohio State, particularly in the second half.  While they do rank sixth nationally in overall field goal percentage, the Wildcats' can't possibly be as good as they were in the second half vs. OSU where they averaged 1.56 points per possession thanks in large part to going 6 of 9 from behind the arc.   For the year, they averaged just five three-point makes per game on 36.2 percent shooting.  Defensively though, I do expect another solid performance from Sean Miller's team, which is the nation's best in defensive rebounding percentage at 78 percent.  That becomes critical when you look at how Ohio State had only three second-chance points on  Saturday and I wouldn't expect Xavier to fare much better in that department here.  10* Under Xavier/Arizona

10* Wichita State (7:15 ET):  It took me awhile to get the proper read on this matchup where the lower seeded team has surprisingly been bet to the role of favorite (as of Weds afternoon).  Now, as you may remember, I played Wichita State in their impressive 78-65 "upset" of in-state rival Kansas on Sunday.  The fact they get ample time off in order to avoid any kind of letdown from that big win is huge here for the Shockers, especially w/ a potential rematch looming in the Elite Eight vs. Kentucky, the team that eliminated them from LY's Tournament.  Not to get lost in the shuffle is this Sweet 16 matchup vs. Notre Dame, a team that is very lucky to be here as they continue to underperform in this event under HC Mike Brey.  I do believe the correct team is favored here and when the brackets were initially released I had WSU going to the Elite 8.  I'll stick with that here.

When I played against Notre Dame in the Rd of 64 I noted their dramatic split in offensive vs. defensive efficiencies.  While ranking in the top five nationally in the former, they are outside the top 100 in the latter and as I said before teams w/ that kind of dramatic split typically are not long for this Tournament.  The Fighting Irish also came in overvalued due to surprisingly winning the ACC Tournament.  Thus, it should not be too surprising to see that they are 0-2 ATS thus far beating Northeastern and Butler by only a combined seven-point margin.  They needed OT to get by Butler on Saturday despite the Bulldogs shooting just 33.3 percent for the game. Not a good sign.  Nor is the fact ND is -26 on the boards through two games.  All told, this has been a pretty "lucky" team this season (4-0 SU in OT games and 6-3 SU in games decided by 5 pts or less in regulation).   That "luck," Irish or not, is due to eventually run out. Remember that ND is 1-9 ATS in the NCAA Tournament under HC Brey. 

Wichita State is a more balanced team that Notre Dame, ranking in the top 20 in both offensive & defensive efficiency.  The only other teams w/ that distinction are: Kentucky, Arizona & Utah.  In beating Indiana and Kansas (how impressive does that sound), the Shockers proved they could win in different ways as against the Hoosiers they averaged 1.17 points per possession while against the Jayhawks they allowed only 65 pts.  It's difficult to bet against Brey in the wake of his mother passing, but his Irish are just not solid enough defensively to go any deeper in this Tournament.  Wichita State is an impressive 63-34 ATS in all lined games the L3 years. 10* Wichita State

NOT A PICK.....intended to be UNDER!

10* Under Sixers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Because it's two bad teams, there's always a chance that this could turn into a high-scoring game w/ no defense.  But I'm willing to bet against that happening even though both Philadelphia and Denver are coming off high scoring games. One thing that may interest you here is the Nuggets are 0-11 ATS this season when playing w/ exactly two days of rest.  Philly has no rest after losing in Sacramento last night.  With the Sixers, defense has actually not been the main issue this year as they are actually far from the worst in the league at that end of the floor.  Rather the issue remains them being the worst offensive team in the league and on the road they average just 87.7 points per game.  Thus, take the Under.

Philly's scoring average is so bad that even if Denver is able to hit their own, this game would still be on pace to go Under by a fairly safe margin.  Consider that over its L10 games the 76ers have scored 100+ points twice and both times came against the Kings.  For the year, they are averaging just 91.2 PPG, a number that only the Knicks are within three points of.  They improbably scored 70 pts in the first half Tuesday, yet still lost, because they reverted back to their traditional ways in the 2H, scoring just 36.  Over the final 6:12 of the game, they scored just three points total.  By the way, this team has not won on the road in over two months.  They are also 18-7 Under this season after allowing 105+ pts the previous game.

Denver is 18-7 Under this season when taking on a team w/ a losing record.  Consider that when these teams met last month in Philly, the total for the game was 193.5, a huge difference from tonight's number.  So the fact that game went Over (Sixers won 105-98) is a bit misleading as that final score would have produced an Under using tonight's line.  That overadjustment on the O/U line is what really caught my eye as I can't remember the last time we saw a near 15-point difference in a total from one matchup to the next.  After coming off a five-game road trip and having the last two days off, I can see the Nuggets coming out "rusty" tonight.  10* Under Sixers/Nuggets

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  These two are doing one heck of a job playing themselves out of playoff position.  Washington, thanks to a good start to the season, is still safe even after three straight road losses. But Indiana, who has now lost six in a row, trails Boston by a full game for the eighth and final spot in the weak Eastern Conference.  The Wizards have to be happy to be back home after getting drubbed in three consecutive games on the West Coast, especially given the current state of their opponent, who has fallen by double digits in four of those last six defeats.  Homecourt advantage should be big here and I'm going to lay the points w/ what has been the better team for the majority of the season. 

Washington comes into this game at 25-10 SU at home this season. They average 102.2 points per game here, which is a full four points above their overall season average.  They've won five straight at the Verizon Center, and before having to go out West, they'd swept a three-game home stand including victories over Portland and Memphis.   While their offensive numbers definitely improve at home, it is the Wizards' defense that will likely win them this game.  A lack of it cost them against Sacramento, the Clippers and Golden State, but in the 11 games previous they did not allow a single opponent to score 100 pts. Monday at Golden State saw one of the wildest flips from one half to another I've seen all year as the Wiz only trailed by three going into half before eventually losing by 31! 

I can't possibly see Washington playing as poorly as they did in the 2H Monday.  They made exactly one field goal and scored all of eight points in the third quarter, which is where the game was decided.   It marked a new season-low in points for them.  I'm looking for the bounce back here as Indiana is just 12-22 SU on the road, yet they seem to be getting plenty of respect from the linesmakers for some reason.  Keep in mind that this team is ten games below .500 and averaging just 95.6 PPG on the road.  Yes, they could potentially be a "tough out" in the 1st rd of the playoffs, but that's only if they get there & right now I'm not sure they will.  8* Washington

8* Charlotte (7:00 ET):  Personally, I thought Brooklyn was overvalued going into their last game, which they lost (as 3-pt favorites) to Boston, 110-91.  In retrospect, I should have played that one.  Granted, the Nets had won four of their previous five, but make no mistake about it, this is not a very good team.  They have one of the worst per game point differentials in the entire league right now and while they are the ONLY team in the league to have a better record on the road than at home, I cannot endorse them this evening in Charlotte, even plus the points.

Both of these teams remain within striking distance of the eighth and final playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference.  Yet, I'd be shocked if the Nets made it.  The Hornets seem like the safer proposition to me and entering the day just one-half game behind Boston w/ a chance to move ahead (Celtics play Miami), they should be supremely motivated here.  Even though they are coming off a 1-4 SU road trip and are 2-6 SU their last eight overall, and possibly w/o Al Jefferson, the team has managed to go 7-3 SU this year w/o their star power forward.  When I played against the team two days ago, it was because they were at the end of a road trip & w/o rest.  Defense is key with this team as they rank 4th in the league in points allowed (97.4 per game). 

Even after they beat Milwaukee and Indiana in consecutive nights, I saw little reason to believe in the Nets.  They've allowed their last two opponents to shoot better than 50% while their own percentages have been highly erratic.  Remember that the 129 points scored against Milwaukee came in a triple overtime game.  This will be their fourth game in six nights, having had to alternate between home and road.  The road team has won huge in the previous two matchups between these teams, but that's a trend I cannot see continuing.  8* Charlotte

10* Murray State (7:00 ET):  In yday's NIT analysis, I made a bit of a mea culpa and admitted I was wrong in going against Murray State on Monday when they went to Tulsa and ended up winning 83-62 in a game that was probably not even that close. Traditionally, the NIT format (for the first three rounds) does see the home team prevail more often than not, but of course yday we saw the road team go 2-0 ATS, including an outright win by Miami over Richmond and then luckily for me Vanderbilt stole the cover against Stanford. I think it's pretty clear that Murray State should have been a top seed in this event and tonight I'll call for them to make it B2B wins on the road as they should go to Old Dominion and win.

ODU has now failed to cover both of its NIT games.  Monday, they beat Illinois State by just a single point in what was a revenge game from early in the season.  They did lead almost the entire way.  Now, the Monarchs are 19-0 SU at home this season and have won 23 straight here at the Ted Constant Convocation Center, so this would seem to be a good value. But going back to when they were "one and done" in the C-USA Tourney, ODU has failed to cover three in a row and one could make the case that this will be the toughest team they've had to face since beating VCU back in November. 

Murray State has lost just one time since November and unfortunately for them it was in the OVC Tournament Final against Belmont, a game decided at the buzzer.  Three of their five losses this season came by three points or less.  The Racers have a really good road record at 12-2 SU and Monday night at Tulsa they completely dominated, leading by as many as 23.  That was against one of the better defensive teams in the entire country mind you as the Golden Hurricane had allowed just three teams to shoot better than 50 percent all season.  The fact Murray State was able to shoot 14 of 25 from three-point range while holding Tulsa to 2 of 22 is quite impressive, but perhaps should not have come as a surprise considering that's now four straight games the Racers have scored 80+ points.  10* Murray State

10* Vanderbilt (9:00 ET):  Well, last night we saw that home teams can indeed be fallible in the NIT as I made a bad call w/ Tulsa against Murray State.  In retrospect, perhaps I should have known better as the home court edge wasn't enough to counteract the visitors simply being a better team.   So now we're down to the final eight w/ all winners in the quarterfinals moving on to Madison Square Garden for the NIT's version of the "Final Four."  Believe it or not, but I'm going to back a road team here as the numbers indicate Vanderbilt was one of the "unluckiest" teams in the country during the regular season (1-8 SU in games decided by 5 pts or less!), so they're due for a turnaround and I feel that taking the points is safe bet.

Already here in the NIT, we've started to see the Commodores' fortunes change.  It started when the top seed in their region, Colorado State, was ousted by South Dakota State in the opening round.  After beating St. Mary's on the road, 75-64 as three-point dogs, the Commies took advantage by beating South Dakota State pretty handily, 92-77 as eight-point chalk. They actually did trail early in the second half, but their hot shooting was too much for the road dog to overcome.  Vandy finished the game at 58.3 percent from the field and scored 59 pts in the 2H alone.  Said South Dakota State HC Scott Nacy, "This is a very good offensive team."  Thus, they become attractive when taking points.  For the season, Vanderbilt is 8-5 ATS as a dog, but w/ six outright upsets.

Stanford got here w/ victories over Cal Davis and Rhode Island, both here in Palo Alto.  However, you may recall that this was not a good team down the stretch as the Cardinal went 0-5 ATS in their five games previous to the start of the NIT, winning only once, and in fact they were just 2-9 ATS L11 coming into this tournament.  That stretch included outright losses to UCLA and Oregon on this floor and let's also not forget the way they were drubbed in the Pac 12 Tournament by Utah.  All of those teams obviously made the NCAA Tournament, but the numbers actually bear out that Vandy was actually at the level of an Oregon or a UCLA and in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they took the NIT.  10* Vanderbilt.

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET):  I've said it before & I'll say it again here.  The Miami Heat are not a very good basketball team. They rank 27th in the league in points, last in rebounds and 29th (i.e. next to last) in assists per game.  They've been outscored by their opponents this season. So for them to come in here as a slight road favorite is a bit of a head-scratcher, at least from where I sit.  I'll concede that the Bucks are in a terrible way right now, having lost six straight, but this is the spot where I see them snapping their losing streak as you should take note they are already 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the Heat this season. 

The Bucks took a tough loss on Sunday as they blew a double digit lead, at home, against Cleveland.  They ended up losing by 18, thus not even covering the spread. Ending up on the wrong end of a 26-5 run turned what was at one point an 11-point 3Q lead into a 15-point deficit halfway through the 4Q. Turnovers doomed Milwaukee, who also had no answer for LeBron James.  Fortunately for tonight, he doesn't play for Miami anymore.  Bench scoring has been way down for the Bucks during this terrible 4-13 SU stretch of theirs, by about 50%, so a little "market correction" has to be in order there, right? At home is where your reserves will always play better. This is a critical game for Milwaukee, who at one point appeared to be a lock for the top six in the Eastern Conference, but is now just 1.5 games ahead of the Heat.

Meanwhile, I played against Miami on Sunday and was rewarded w/ an easy cover as Oklahoma City blew them out, 93-75.  That snapped the Heat's three-game win streak, but all of those victories came at home. Not only have they lost twice to Milwaukee at home this season, but in their lone visit to the Bradley Center, they were blown out by 24 pts.  At one point, the Bucks owned the best ATS record in the league.  They're still a solid 39-29-2 vs. the number overall, including 25-17 when taking points.  Look for a bounce back performance tonight.  10* Milwaukee

8* Under Spurs/Mavericks (8:05 ET):  This shapes up as a huge game in the Western Conference playoff picture where teams currently seeded 3 through 7 are separated by just three games.  The Spurs and Mavs come in at 6th and 7th respectively w/ the former currently holding a one-game lead over the latter.  Expect a "playoff-like" atmosphere in this one (typical cliche!), which usually lends itself to an Under play and that's what I'll do here.  While San Antonio is 8-1 Over its last nine games and Dallas 5-1 Over its last six, this number seems a bit high, especially considering the Spurs' 4-0 Under mark this season in road games where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points (18-7 Under L3 years). 

San Antonio is also 5-1 Under this year as a road favorite of three points or less.  Now they do come in averaging a whopping 110.4 points per game and will be facing one of the highest scoring teams in the entire league.  But consider both previous meetings this season between these teams stayed Under.  Granted, both were early on, one of them Opening Night, but still there's been almost no adjustment in the number from the oddsmakers and the last time they played the final score was 99-93 in favor of the Spurs.  San Antonio is top nine in points allowed per game this season and has allowed an average of just 92 its last two games.  On the flip side, they've averaged just 98.4 PPG on the road this season en route to going only 18-17 SU.

Dallas went Under in its last game, a 98-92 loss at Phoenix Sunday.  They shot just 38.5 percent for the game, including 5 of 19 from three-point range, and were a horrible 13 of 22 from the FT line.  While those numbers are probably all due to improve here tonight, I don't think it will be to the degree needed to send this one Over the total.  The Mavs have actually been a solid Under team in the second half of the season, going 14-8 Under L22 games.   Leading scorer Monta Ellis has been in a major slump lately and there have been 24 games this season where he's shot worse than 40 percent.  8* Under Spurs/Mavericks

10* Tulsa (9:00 ET): It seems as if everyone is on the road dog here and given the history of the NIT, including this year's limited results, that would appear to be unwise.  Perhaps Murray State is a sentimental choice after getting "snubbed" by the NCAA selection committee, but the bottom line here is that I think this number is far too small as they play at Tulsa.  While Murray State did cover its opening round NIT game (81-66 over UTEP) and Tulsa did not (beat William & Mary 70-67), all that's done is add to the public perception here and shrink the line further than it should be.  I realize that Tulsa's record is a bit of a mirage, but they are 13-4 SU at home and allow just 59.4 points per game here. Home teams typically take care of business in the NIT.  Lay the number.

Note that the final score was a bit misleading for Tulsa last Tuesday as they led William and Mary by as many as 21 points in the second half before things got a little too close for comfort.   Once W&M switched to a 1-3-1 zone in the 2H, the Golden Hurricane struggled to score, but fortunately their own defense saved them, holding the Tribe (who rank 7th nationally in FG%) to just 33.8 percent shooting for the game.  Murray State will not be as formidable defensively as the Racers allow over 70 PPG on the road.   Remember that William & Mary was a regular season conference champion as well, just like Murray State, who despite being seeded lower (than Tulsa) I feel played a weaker 1st rd opponent (UTEP).

Murray State played only two NCAA Tournament teams out of conference and neither game went well as they lost to Xavier and Valparaiso by an average of 31 points per game!  I concede that it's not really a fair comparison because Tulsa is not a NCAA Tourney team, but note that Murray State also lost to a Houston team that Tulsa beat three times during the year.  Playing in the American, the Golden Hurricane also faced the better competition all year, plus they also took on Wichita State and Oklahoma out of conference.  Murray State pulled away late in the game vs. UTEP and despite a sterling road record, I see them failing to get the job done here.  10* Tulsa

10* Chicago (8:05 ET):  This is actually a double revenge spot for the Bulls, who are also coming off a disappointing 107-91 loss in Detroit on Saturday.  So they certainly shouldn't be lacking motivation as they take the court tonight against Charlotte, a team that needed a big come from behind effort last night in Minnesota to snap a three-game losing streak.  Just ten days ago, the Hornets beat the Bulls (in Charlotte) 101-91 and a couple weeks before that they won here at the United Center by a score of 98-86 (were +7).  The linesmakers haven't adjusted too much here and that's because they know Chicago is simply the better team and that the situation is in their favor.  Lay the points.

Charlotte, still in contention for a playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference, has not been playing well of late - at all.  Going into last night, they'd dropped five of six, twice failing to score even 70 pts.  They trailed Minnesota at the half last night and were able to come back despite allowing the T'wolves to shoot 55.4 percent for the game, only the third time since the 1996-97 season season Minnesota shot that well in a game and still lost.  The Hornets trailed by as many as 13 in the first half.  Even w/ the win, this is a shaky road team at best as they've gone just 14-20 straight up away from home this season. Situationally, it's not a good spot either as this will be their fifth consecutive road game over an eight day span and the second time they've had to play back to backs. 

Offensively, I don't think Charlotte can hang here.  They average only 94.5 PPG and as mentioned above they've had some recent "stinkers," particularly the game at Utah that kicked off this trip.  As I've said before, this is not your usual Tom Thibodeau coached team as this season the Bulls are averaging 102.1 PPG at home.  What's shocking about what happened Saturday vs. Detroit is that the Bulls led by 19 halfway through the third quarter before ending up on the wrong side of a 54-19 run to close the game.  They also blew a 19-point lead the last time they faced Charlotte.   With Taj Gibson back in the lineup (and possibly Jimmy Butler?), look for the Bulls to take care of business and finish the deal this time.  10* Chicago

8* Houston (7:05 ET):  Both teams here are somewhat trending in the wrong direction as we get closer to the playoffs.  The Rockets took a bad loss Saturday to Phoenix, at home no less.  I know because I was on them.  They fell 117-102 and what is concerning there is giving up all those points to a team that had been struggling to score.  Indiana, however, has more concern after losing five straight and falling out of playoff position.  This streak comes after they'd won seven straight and has entirely been against Eastern Conference teams.  Versus the West this season, the Pacers are just 8-18 straight up and that includes a double digit loss in Houston back in January. The Rockets have been the better team all year and are a good value here.

Typically, Houston bounces back w/ a strong performance after the kind of loss they took Saturday night.  This season, they are 10-1 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite and 10-2 ATS following a double digit loss, two trends that undoubtedly have some overlap between them.  Again, lack of defense was the issue against the Suns as they allowed 54 points in the paint, which is 11.3 more than they allow per game for the season. I suppose one could point towards the absence of Dwight Howard, but he's been out for a long time and the team's defensive numbers hadn't really dipped as much as you might think w/o him in the lineup.  Offense is not an issue for the Rockets, who actually score more per game on the road than at home.  The last time we saw this team on the road, they beat the Clippers outright. 

Indiana's offense had gone in the tank for four games prior to Saturday's matchup w/ Brooklyn.  The problem there was defense as they allowed an unforgivable 123 points to an offensively inept Nets squad, losing outright as 8.5-point chalk.  It was a bad situation for the Pacers when you consider they were coming off a close loss in Cleveland the previous night, but then again Brooklyn had just played a triple overtime game the night before.  Indiana is just 3-8 SU/4-7 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite & I just think they lack the requisite amount of firepower needed to compete here.  8* Houston

10* West Virginia (8:40 ET):  These were two popular picks to be upset in the Round of 64, but here we are Sunday and the "chalk walked" in both instances and we have the traditional 4 vs. 5 matchup w/ Maryland taking on West Virginia; the winner moving on to face Kentucky. Actually, the above statement is a bit misleading as Maryland did not cover its first matchup, beating Valparaiso only 65-62 as 4.5-point faves Friday.  I went against the Terps there and will do the same here as I still believe that this team was "overseeded."  The win over Valpo continued a string of incredible good fortune for the contingent from College Park, which is now an insane 9-1 SU in games decided by five points or less.  Look for that "luck" to run out this evening.

I thought that West Virginia was more impressive than the 68-62 final score showed vs. Buffalo Friday afternoon.  They led the entire way and held Buffalo scoreless for the final 2:42 of the game.  They forced a turnover on roughly 26% of the Bulls' total possessions, which is "par for the course" as the Mountaineers led the nation by forcing 19.6 TO's per game, which in turn led to the most PPG off turnovers nationally (20.7).  Another big deal in Morgantown is the return of seniors Juwan Staten and Gary Browne, Staten in particular.   The team lost three of four w/o their starting point guard and was "one and done" in the Big 12 Tournament.  With him now back in the fold, they are far more dangerous.

Maryland had no Tournament experience prior to Friday and has a pair of freshman guards who I feel might struggle against WVU's pressure defense. Also, don't expect the Mountaineers to shoot a woeful 26.9 percent in the paint like Valpo did Friday.  That was the worst shooting percentage in the painted area, by any team, in a NCAA Tournament game in the last five years.  With 13 victories by six points or less this season, Maryland is clearly the most vulnerable higher seeded team in this Tournament.  I thought they'd lose their first game and will "double down" here.  10* West Virginia

10* Wichita State (5:15 ET):  In case you couldn't tell already from this line, the expectation here for an upset is very real as this is a heavily anticipated game between in-state rivals that almost never play.  It's the second "low line"  based solely on seeding that Kansas has faced.  Friday, they were just 10.5-point favorites over 15-seed New Mexico State and easily passed that test, winning 75-56.  But this is going to be much tougher against a Wichita State team that I feel was dramatically underseeded.  Obviously, the Big 12's reputation has already taken a hit in this Tournament, but I don't see this line as any kind of overreaction to that as the Shockers, a former Final Four participant, are a worthy adversary. I'll call for the upset here. Take the points.

Wichita State did have some trouble w/ Indiana in their first tournament game, winning only 81-76 as 6.5-point chalk.  But I certainly don't see Kansas shooting the ball as well from three-point range as IU did on Friday.  The three-point shot is what kep the Hoosiers in the game as they went 11 of 22 from behind the arc while WSU was just 2 for 13.  Fortunately for today, Kansas is not a team that makes, or even takes, many shots from distance.  They average just six makes per game.  Consider that the Shockers outscored Indiana 44-24 in the paint, and enjoyed a massive edge at the free throw line.  Kansas has been atypically weak in the defensive rebounding department this season and that could haunt them here.

I didn't have a play on Wichita State-Indiana, mainly because I prefer the Shockers in the underdog role. They've covered eight of their last ten as dogs, including the only time it happened previously this season.  This is a team that's lost just four times all year, only once by more than six points.  They have the edge in the backcourt in this matchup w/ Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker.  The importance of this game to the Wichita State program cannot be understated as Kansas won't schedule them during the regular season.  The Jayhawks have exited the tournament early before as a high seed, including last year. It happens again.  10* Wichita State

8* Toronto (4:05 ET):  After winning B2B games for the first time since the All-Star Break, the Raptors lost what could have been a crucial game Friday in Chicago, 108-92, which temporarily dropped them below the Bulls in the Eastern Conference standings. But the Bulls lost yday, meaning Toronto is back in third place and I see them maintaining that position after today as they host the woeful Knicks.  Though just 4-11 SU their last 15 overall, the straight up result here is not in question as far as I'm concerned, rather all we need to worry about is whether or not the home team can cover the spread. We know that they won't take this game lightly because of an outright loss to the Knicks back on February 28th.  Look for the Raptors to exact revenge here w/ a blowout win.

Ironically, New York has also gone 4-11 SU over its last 15 games.  But the difference is that they had won only 10 games all season before that.  They are off B2B losses to Minnesota and Philadelphia, who you could make a case are the 3rd and 2nd worst teams in the league, respectively.  (Obviously, the Knicks are the worst).   On the road this season, NY is being outscored by double digits.  They hardly resemble a NBA roster these days w/ the likes of Lou Amundson, Lance Thomas, Alexey Shved and Langston Galloway in their starting lineup.  The last two games have seen them score just 166 points in regulation. 

Somehow, the Knicks have managed to go 3-0 ATS vs. the division rival Raptors this year.  In their only previous visit North of the border, they were taking an identical number and lost 118-108.  With the Raptors possibly w/o PG Kyle Lowry again here, it may not seem like the most opportune time to lay double digits w/ Toronto, but I just feel the Knicks are so bad right now that you have to consider going against them almost every time out as they're simply playing out the string and have zero motivation to win at this point, considering that would only hurt their odds in the draft lottery.  This should be a blowout for the home team.  8* Toronto