10* Under Pelicans/Thunder (8:05 ET): New Orleans would seem to be in some real trouble w/o superstar Anthony Davis and tonight is NOT a spot where they're likely to "figure things out." They just lost last night, at home to Detroit, and what made that loss all the more painful is that it was the first time all year they dropped a game when allowing fewer than 100 points (final score was 98-94). The fact they failed to score 100 pts themselves (just the sixth time this season) may very well be a "sign o' the times" without Davis, who is going to be out until at least next week.

Oklahoma City has actually been one of the league's top defensive teams for most of this year. They enter Thursday tied (w/ Utah) for the third best defensive efficiency rating in the league. After a few wild (i.e. high-scoring) games earlier in the month, things have settled down a bit for the Thunder over the L7 days as they've won three straight. This would seem to be a favorable spot for them as New Orleans is just 1-6 SU/ATS when playing in the second night of a back to back. But I'm not sure OKC can score enough to cover what is a lofty pointspread.

Therefore, Under is the call here as the Pelicans should continue to struggle to score w/o Davis. I already mentioned how they typically struggle when playing in the second night of a back to back. Those struggles are actually more about the defense, but this is a massive total, one where neither team's YTD scoring average would add up to an Over. Even the Pelicans, whose games - on average - are the highest scoring in the league (231.5 PPG) don't add up to what the oddsmakers are calling for here. This total is simply too high considering NO is w/o Davis and OKC is inconsistent shooting the ball. 10* Under Pelicans/Thunder 

8* Appalachian State (8:00 ET): It would appear as if Appalachian State has little going for itself going into Thursday night's game in Jonesboro. The Mountaineers are 0-11 SU on the road and have dropped six in a row overall. They are the only team in the Sun Belt w/o a conference win. So you may be wondering why they're only a small dog on the road. Well, Arkansas State isn't very good either. The Red Wolves have their own three-game losing streak coming into tonight and are 0-5 ATS the L5 games. In what shapes up as an "ugly game," I'll take the points.

App State has generally been competitive here in conference play. Three of the five losses have been by six points or less. Saturday's game at Coastal Carolina was certainly their worst effort yet against a Sun Belt opponent as they fell by 17. Really, the game was "over before it started" w/ CC racing out to a 16-0 lead to start the game. From there, App State played basically an even game, but it hardly mattered. After such a brutal start to a game, I expect the Mountaineers to come out far more focused tonight against an opponent they know they can beat. 

App State definitely "owes" Arkansas State after losing to them three straight times, all by five points or less. Last year's two meetings were decided by a total of eight points and the last two times the Mountaineers have come to Jonesboro, they've lost by one and three points. Arkansas State was 0-2 last week, scoring just 59 and 64 points in losses to TX-Arlington and Texas State. Both losses were on the road. While the Red Wolves have been better at home, you have to think this line is a little bit curious. Note Arkansas State was on the wrong end of a 30-0 (!) run in their last game as they missed 12 consecutive shots. This entire three-pack is based on fading shaky looking favorites and that's what the Red Wolves are here. 8* Appalachian State 

8* Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): It's been a pretty ugly year for the Blue Raiders. They're 5-14 SU and 4-13 ATS. But that hasn't stopped me from cashing them twice already this month. The first time was at Southern Miss exactly two weeks ago when they covered as 10.5-pt dogs in a 77-70 loss. Things worked out even better last Thursday when I had them as a four-point dog and they won outright over UTSA, 89-86. While that game ended up being close, note MTSU had a double digit lead for most of the second half and led by as many as 19 points! Let's make it three Thursdays in a row w/ this team as I'll again grab them as a road dog this week. 

The good news didn't stop last Thursday for Middle Tennessee. They followed up their "upset" of UTSA w/ another win, this one over UTEP, also at home and by three points. This is the Blue Raiders' first win streak since starting the season w/ two wins over non-board teams. While the win over UTSA saw them jump out to a big lead early and hold on, MTSU was forced to rally vs. UTEP, coming back from an early 13-point deficit. The game was close for much of the second half and the Blue Raiders really helped themselves by scoring 27 points over 20 UTEP turnovers.

Rice is the opponent for Middle Tennessee this Thursday. The Owls have lost three in a row, all on the road, the last two each coming by a point. Those two one-point losses were both heartbreakers w/ the Owls losing on a buzzer beater each time. Saturday's 76-75 loss to North Texas (who is a good team) was really painful as the Owls blew a 16-point lead in that one. I know they've had four days off, but I wonder how much Rice will have left in the tank after a week like that. This is a team that gives up 79.2 PPG on the year. Wouldn't want any part of laying points w/ them right now. 8* Middle Tennessee

8* James Madison (7:00 ET): The number of teams w/ unbeaten conference records seems to be rapidly dwindling. Count Hofstra among the survivors though as the Pride are off to a 7-0 start in the Colonial and have won 14 in a row overall, which is the nation's longest active win streak! They've already built a two-game lead in conference play. They are 7-1 ATS on the road (14-4 ATS overall), but I'd be a bit worried about this outfit considering it ranks an ugly 186th in the country in defensive efficiency. I'll take the points here as I'm not yet sold on this Hofstra team.

James Madison should be more than excited to be back home. The road has been unkind to the Dukes this season as they just dropped two more games last week away from home. They lost to Delaware on Thursday and Drexel on Saturday to fall to 2-5 in the CAA, which has them tied for last. Six of JMU's last nine games have been played on the road and they've lost all six. But they went 2-1 SU in the three home games w/ the one loss coming by only three points. The Dukes are 6-2 SU at home for the year and I think it's important to note that it's been over a month since this team lost a game by more than seven points. 

Hofstra's two road wins in league play were both three point games. They needed three overtimes to win one of them (William & Mary) while a 74-71 win at Elon required them to battle back from an eight-point halftime deficit. The team can score, but it's shooting percentage are down considerably when on the road. James Madison certainly looked as if it was headed for a win Saturday at Drexel when it jumped out to an early 22-4 lead. But it was not to be and they lost 73-68 as a 3.5-pt road dog. Their own offensive numbers are way up here at home as they average 78.7 PPG on 47.5% shooting. They will be a tough out tonight. 8* James Madison

10* Utah (10:35 ET): While I haven't been correct about everything this NBA season, one of my more "spot on" calls came earlier this month when I said the Jazz were set to go on a major run. Sure enough, that's exactly what's taken place. The team has gone 8-2 SU its L10 games, though they did lose Monday (here at home) to Portland, 109-104 as five-point chalk. As hot as they've been, I don't see the Jazz dropping B2B home games. A big reason for their success this month has been their play at home. They'll be hosting a Denver team that has played just one of its last six games on the road and that was at Phoenix, where they lost outright 102-93. Lay the points here. 

Overall, the Nuggets are just 11-10 SU on the road this season. Now let's not sell this team short, shall we? They are 31-14 SU overall and just a game back of Golden State for the top spot in the Western Conference. But of course the Warriors did humiliate them last week - at home - in a 142-111 beatdown. Since then, Denver has gotten back on track w/ B2B blowouts over Chicago and Cleveland, the two worst teams in the league. Fatigue certainly shouldn't be a factor for the Nuggets here as they've been off since Saturday. But what about rust? The team is only 1-3 ATS this season when playing w/ three or more days rest. 

The Jazz have certainly had the Nuggets' number here in Salt Lake City through the years, winning 38 of the past 46 matchups here. Perhaps what happened to Utah Monday night was a product of what could very well happen to Denver tonight. They could have been a bit overconfident following a recent string of wins, although in the end it simply boiled down to the fact the Blazers shot the ball a whole lot better. Denver is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in division games this season, but this sets up as a big revenge spot for the Jazz, who lost badly in the Mile High City back in November. They're certainly playing a lot better now and I look for them to beat the Nuggets for an eighth straight time here in SLC. They've held Denver below 90 pts in five of those seven previous wins, which have come by an average of 14 PPG. 10* Utah

8* Long Beach State (10:00 ET): We return to our "previously scheduled program" of fading Cal State Northridge, a team I maintain is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers on a game by game basis. Perhaps the joke is on me, however, as the Matadors have managed to go a somewhat impressive 7-1-1 ATS their last nine games. But that one ATS loss happened to be the last time I played against them, which was 1.17 at home vs. a Hawaii team that hadn't played on the road in months. The Matadors did cover over the weekend against UC Irvine, but lost the game straight up, by six points (they were getting seven). 

Long Beach State is off an outright loss here as they lost by two, at home, to Cal State Fullerton. That was an overtime game as the 49ers were able to rally back from a 10-point halftime deficit. But, it was not to be as the extra period saw them only able to grab the lead briefly. Still, this is a team that has been beaten in regulation only one time since blowing an eight-point halftime lead on December 10th and that was at Stanford. While they did not cover either game LY vs. Cal State Northridge, LBSU did win both. They also won their last road game, beating UC Irvine exactly one week ago. 

Cal State Northridge has been involved in a LOT of close calls so far this season. Their last nine games have all been decided by eight points or less w/ eight of them decided by six or less. They've managed to go 5-4 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in that stretch, but the loss to UC Irvine on Saturday was pretty crushing as it not only came here at home, but also saw the Matadors blow a 16-point halftime lead. They were outscored 43-21 over the game's final 20 minutes including a 14-0 run by UC Irvine in the final six minutes. Cal State Northridge was only able to secure the cover when they hit a "meaningless" three-pointer w/ two seconds remaining, their only made basket in the game's six minutes. 8* Long Beach State 

8* DePaul (8:30 ET): While it's an arguable point whether or not LSU belongs in the Top 25 right now, I think it's inarguable that Marquette is NOT the 12th best team in the country. Yet, that's exactly where the Golden Eagles find themselves this week, based on the strength of a 16-3 SU record and five-game win streak. Personally, I don't even consider Marquette a Top 25 team, so there's an argument to be had that they are the most overrated team in the country right now. Don't sleep on DePaul here as the Blue Demons just upset Seton Hall over the weekend. I'm taking the points in this Big East matchup. 

DePaul is 11-8 SU and coming off its second upset of Seton Hall this season. The Blue Demons won 97-93, on the road, Saturday as 7-pt pups. It was an impressive all-around performance shooting the basketball for the contingent from Chicago as they made 52.5% of their field goal attempts, including 6 of 11 from three-point range, and went 29 of 32 from the free throw line. Making the Blue Demons a force to be reckoned with is the fact that was the third outright upset they've pulled in the last four games. In addition to getting Seton Hall twice, they also went to St. John's and won. Consider that Marquette lost by 20 at St. John's, though you do have to factor in that the Johnnies were w/o their leading scorer when they faced DePaul. 

Marquette is 13-0 SU at home this season, putting them in a pretty exclusive class of 19 teams that are currently 10-0 SU or better on campus. Only Houston (14-0 SU) has a better home record. Certainly, that has to be a little bit intimidating for a DePaul team that is just 2-17 SU its L19 visits here. But this is an underdog that can score (77.6 PPG) and they have four different players averaging double figures. Note that Marquette's last three games have not been easy. Two were wins by four pts or less (Seton Hall, G'town) and then on Sunday, they had to come back and erase an eight-point halftime deficit (here at home) vs. Providence. 8* DePaul

8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): The Cavs have been unspeakably bad for some time now as their lone win of 2019 came against the LeBron-less Lakers. They own the worst record/point differential in the league at 9-39 SU while being outscored by more than 10 points per game. They're dealing w/ injuries and the truth of the matter is that this season is going just about as poorly as the first time LeBron left them high and dry (2010). That all being said, this is simply too many points for Boston - or any other team, for that matter - to lay in a regular season contest. Take the points. 

The Celtics have had their own set of issues this season. Granted, it's not even comparable to what's going on in Cleveland, but w/ just the 5th best record in the East right now, they're clearly underachieving. I would not be surprised to see them move up the standings over the course of the second half of the season, but winning by a margin larger than what the oddsmakers are calling for here could prove problematic. Even as the Celtics have won four in a row coming into tonight, none of the victories have been by double digits. They're a pretty strong home team (won 9 straight here), but even so, they're "only" outscoring visitors by an average of 10.4 PPG, a far cry from tonight's pointspread. 

Short-handed as they might be, the Cavs will desperately want to atone for Monday's putrid performance at home vs. Chicago where they lost by 18.  They'll also want revenge for a 33-point loss here in Boston earlier in the year. Believe it or not, but the Cavs do own two outright wins this year as a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Boston has a home game vs. Golden State (Saturday night) to look forward to. Too much has to go right to cover a pointspread as large as this one. 8* Cleveland 

8* Georgia (7:00 ET): LSU has cracked the top 25, but I'm not entirely sure they belong there. Sure, they own a 14-3 SU record and have won seven in a row since a failed attempt at ending Houston's unbeaten run (which has since come to an end). But the Bayou Bengals haven't exactly taken on the toughest competition the SEC has to offer. Even an 87-69 win Saturday over a South Carolina team that had previously not dropped a conference game wasn't all THAT impressive when you consider the Tigers were 9-pt favorites here in Baton Rouge. I think LSU is ripe for a letdown.

Georgia has taken on the best the SEC has to offer and it really hasn't gone too well for them. They are 1-4 SU in SEC play, but those losses were to Tennessee (new #1 team in the country), Kentucky (hot as anybody right now), Auburn (who I still consider a top 15 team) and Florida. In my own personal power rankings, I have all of those teams rated higher than LSU. Now UGA lost all four of those games by double digits. But they should come in very motivated tonight and with some confidence, knowing that they are a perfect 3-0 (straight up) vs. LSU the past two seasons. 

LSU HC Will Wade noted his team didn't handle being ranked in the polls very well earlier this year. "Human nature is to relax; human nature is to give in a little bit," he said. That's what happened after LSU started the year 5-0 SU and found itself ranked #19 in the country. They then lost their next two games, to Florida State and Oklahoma State. While the Tigers are on a 17-game home win streak (10-0 TY), the last team to beat them here in Baton Rouge was UGA, 61-60 last season. The Bulldogs played better than the final score (62-52) showed vs. Florida on Saturday as they shot almost 58% from the field (but 38% in the 2H), only to turn it over 20 times, which led to 28 pts for the Gators. Despite all that, the Dawgs were still up by five in the 2H. Take the points tonight. 8* Georgia

10* Wichita State (8:00 ET): What a difference a year makes. Last year, right around this time, Wichita State hosted USF and was a 29-point favorite at Koch Arena. They wound up covering that lofty spread in a 95-60 blowout win. Now, a year later, they are getting points from the Bulls in Tampa. While we know it's been a down year for the Shockers, this is a bad line in my opinion. Wichita State is coming off a tough run of games, losing to the top two teams in the American (Houston, Cincinnati) plus an OT defeat at the hands of Temple. Their one win in the last four games came as a short dog, at home though, against UCF last Wednesday. I'm taking the points here. 

South Florida is 12-6 SU overall, but only 2-4 SU in conference play. They are a definite "drop in class" in terms of opponent for Wichita State, who just played the four top teams in the American all in a row. With five losses in its last six games (including one out of conference to VCU), the Shockers will be a desperate team tonight. Then again, four of USF's six losses have come in the last five games. They too had a tough time against the top teams from the American as they've just lost three in a row to Temple, Cincy and Houston. Only one team can get on track here though and I think it's going to be Wichita State.

South Florida shot very poorly Saturday against Houston, leading to a seven-game home win streak coming to an end. As for Wichita State's loss to Cincinnati, that was a close game (five points) before HC Gregg Marshall and freshman Erik Stevenson were both whistled for technical fouls for complaining about the officiating. Given that the Bearcats attempted 35 free throws to the Shockers' seven, maybe they had a right to complain. I thought USF was a bit lucky defensively against Houston as the Cougars didn't shoot the ball particularly well either. That came after the Bulls allowed B2B 82-point games to their two previous opponents. I'm on Wichita State here. 10* Wichita State 

10* Over Kings/Raptors (7:05 ET): Sacramento is a team that I remain highly skeptical of, moving forward. The fact that they are over .500 has to be considered a major shocker at this point as coming into the year, it was expected to be them and Phoenix at the bottom of the Western Conference. But although the Kings are 24-23 SU on the year, they do happen to own the West's third worst overall point differential, a sign that regression could be forthcoming. Last night was certainly a step in the WRONG direction as they were blown out in Brooklyn, 123-94.

Things certainly don't get any easier for the Kings tonight as they must head north of the border to play Toronto. The Raptors are battling the Bucks for the top spot in the Eastern Conference right now w/ the two teams tied for first (Milwaukee technically percentage points ahead). Toronto has been a dominant team on its home floor, going 20-4 straight up while averaging 115.4 PPG. This team has been doing plenty of scoring lately, although some of that is tied to a 140-138 win over Washington that went to double overtime. They are top 7 in offensive efficiency, for the year, however. They'll also be getting Kawhi Leonard back (missed L2 games) tonight.

I've been through this before, but the fact Sacramento gives up so many points will ultimately be their undoing. They are bottom five in the league in PPG allowed (115.2) and that number gets even worse on the road. Last night, they allowed 123 points to a Nets team that is nowhere near what Toronto is offensively. However, it was still the eighth straight Kings game that stayed Under the total as they shot just 41.9% from the field. They should improve on that number tonight and while the number is high, I expect this game to go Over the total. (The total was even higher when these teams met in Sacramento earlier in the season). The Kings are 23-12 Over as underdogs this season, including 13-4 when on the road. Such a streak of Unders is a bit perplexing when you consider how bad Sacramento is defensively. 10* Over Kings/Raptors

8* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): Maybe I should have called this as an "oddsmakers trap" as opposed to an "error." Because I think most would be surprised to see a team w/ an unbeaten conference record (Bowling Green) getting points from a team w/ a losing record (like 8-10 Eastern Michigan). But the bottom line is that BG is a pretty fraudulent group, despite being 5-0 SU in MAC play. Granted, I tried fading them over the weekend and that certainly didn't work out as the Falcons blew out Western Michigan. But that game was also at home where they're now 10-0 SU on the year. The road has been a different story and tonight's game in Ypsilanti will be their 1st conference loss of the year.

Eastern Michigan can claim a similar home vs. road dichotomy. They're a solid 7-3 SU at home this year, but just 1-7 on the road. They just lost at Buffalo over the weekend by 12, but covered the spread. As you probably know, the Bulls are the MAC's other unbeaten, but certainly far stronger than Bowling Green. Though they've lost twice to Buffalo this month, Eastern Michigan should hold its head high knowing they were 2-0 ATS vs. the #14 team in the country. The MAC slate will only get much easier from here and it should be noted that four of the Eagles' 10 losses this year have come against teams currently ranked in the top 15. Two others were to Power 5 schools. 

Bowling Green has lost five of the seven "true" road games it has played this year. They might be a perfect 5-0 ATS in January and 8-0 ATS since December 8th, but Eastern Michigan happens to be riding its own 4-game ATS win streak. The Falcons have played an incredibly easy schedule to this point and might already be looking ahead to a showdown (at home) vs. Buffalo that takes place next week. I am simply not a believer in this team and Eastern Michigan isn't going to shoot only 28% from the field in this game like Western Michigan did vs. BG on Saturday. Lay the short number. 8* Eastern Michigan 

10* Western Kentucky (9:00 ET): This line should tell you all you need to know about the current C-USA standings. Marshall is the only team in the league w/o a loss, but the Thundering Herd come in as underdogs to Western Kentucky tonight in a rematch of a game played less than 10 days ago. Obviously, Marshall was victorious the first time around, but only by 1 point (70-69) and they had to rally back from a 15-point deficit. WKU is the better team here and should get its revenge tonight in Bowling Green. Lay the points. 

Western Kentucky knows it let one slip away in Huntington and thus should come out highly motivated this evening. The disappointment from losing to Marshall the first time seemed to carry over into the Hilltoppers' next game, also a one-point loss, where they were 10-pt favorites over Florida International. Then again, that was a game WKU led by as many as 16 - at home. That not only made it B2B 1-pt losses, but three straight by three points or less. Finally, the Hilltoppers were able to get back into the win column on Saturday, defeating FAU 72-66 in their own come from behind effort. WKU is better than its 9-9 record as its last six losses have all been by six points or less.

Marshall has had just the opposite luck in close games. That 70-69 win over Western Kentucky was their third straight win by three points or less at the time and second straight by exactly one point. In their last road game, they were only able to defeat Charlotte (last place team in C-USA) 85-84. The Herd are also off a week where they played both FAU and FIU (just in the reverse order). They gave up plenty of points in both games, including 97 to FIU on Saturday. That marked the SIXTH time this season that they've allowed 90 pts in a game! Marshall has just been awful defensively on the road, giving up 88.0 PPG for the year and they rank an atrocious 221st in the country in defensive efficiency. I rate them only as the 4th best team in C-USA w/ WKU as one of the three that are better. 10* Western Kentucky

8* Houston (8:05 ET): I think the better team is getting points in this one. James Harden has been on an all-time great run in terms of scoring, leading the Rockets to a 15-5 SU record in their last 20 games. Harden has scored 40 or more points in 10 of the last 13 games, including 48 in a wild come from behind victory out in Los Angeles Saturday night. Facing the LeBron-less Lakers, Houston trailed by as many as 21 before coming back to win the game in OT, 138-134. While falling into such a deep hole against a bad team doesn't exactly inspire confidence, this is a rare spot where the Rockets are getting points and I'll take advantage as Philadelphia remains overrated from where I sit.

The Sixers are coming off a loss Saturday afternoon to Oklahoma City. I played against them in that spot too, noting they were laying points to a better team. It ended up being just their 5th home loss of the year as Paul George saved the day for the Thunder w/ a four-point play in the final seconds. While that game ended up being close, note OKC led virtually the entire way and by as many as 16 in the first quarter. That terrible start ultimately doomed them. While the Sixers aren't likely to fall into such a deep early hole again tonight, the same can be said for the Rockets as it pertains to their previous effort. 

With a red-hot Harden, I expect the Rockets to shoot a lot better tonight than they have in the last two games. Houston has actually played two straight overtime games as they lost to Brooklyn last Wednesday, 145-142 despite 58 from Harden. I don't think the B2B OT games will be much of a factor here as the Rockets have only played twice in the last five days. I mentioned earlier that its rare to find them as underdogs. The only time they've been a dog of more than two points in the last month was at Golden State (were +9) and they won that game outright. I just don't think Philly should be favored by this many against what I still view as a superior team, even at home. Take the points. 8* Houston

8* Under Mavs/Bucks (2:00 ET): Although Golden State has been making a strong case recently, I still consider Milwaukee to have been the best team in the league over the 1st half of the season. They now lead the Eastern Conference w/ a 33-13 SU record and have outscored their opponents by 10.0 PPG. That's a remarkable point differential over a 46-game stretch considering the next best team (Golden St) is +6.5 PPG. I'm sure the Bucks will score plenty this afternoon, but will their opponent? I look for this game to stay Under the total.

Dallas isn't exactly one of the top offensive teams in the league. On the road, they've played very poorly this season, going just 4-19 SU. A three-game losing streak is a killer in the current Western Conference climate and in this instance, it's dropped the Mavs to third from the bottom in the Western Conference. I do not see this team making any kind of serious run to the playoffs, but they do have at least one thing going for them and that's rookie Luka Doncic. Of course, Doncic's emergence has led to Dennis Smith Jr going AWOL, which isn't exactly what you want. In the Mavs last two games, they've scored "just" 200 points. 

In the Mavs previous 12 games, the Under has gone 9-2-1. On offense, they haven't been shooting the ball well for awhile now. They've been at or below 43% from the field in seven of the past eight games. The Under is also 7-0 off their previous seven losses. On Saturday, they lost 111-99 to Indiana. The Mavs have also gone Under in their last six non-conference games. Milwaukee has seen the Under cash in five of their last seven games. They aren't likely going to shoot the ball as well in this game as they did in their last one (55.3%) vs. Orlando. 8* Under Mavs/Bucks 

10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): I honestly thought the Cavs might be favored here.  There's certainly an argument that they should. While it's true Cleveland is the worst team in the league right now, Chicago isn't much better. In fact, I'd consider the Bulls to be the second worst team w/ a power rating that's just a "touch" better. The Cavs are dealing w/ some injuries right now and just finished up a tough road trip w/ B2B blowout losses at the hands of Utah and Denver. But Chicago isn't fully healthy right now either and the Cavs likely remember suffering a 20-point loss here on their home floor right before X-Mas. They'll get their revenge here. Take the points. 

Since beating the Cavs here on 12.23, the Bulls have dropped 10 straight and 11 of 12 overall. Tuesday's loss to the Lakers proved more costly than usual as Wendell Carter Jr tore ligaments in his thumb and is probably done for the season. Since losing Carter, the Bulls have lost by 30 to Denver and 14 to to Miami. Both of those opponents shot better than 52% from the field. The Bulls shot 39.3% in their last game as they continue to rank dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. It should be pointed out that Chicago was a slight dog the last time they came calling to Cleveland. The underdog is an incredible 22-5 ATS the past 27 meetings between these teams. 

The Cavs have also cashed six of their last eight games vs. teams w/ a winning percentage of .400 or below. These teams have similar YTD records and point differentials w/ Chicago only slightly better. There's not many games you'd "expect" Cleveland to win anymore, but this is one for me. They're off a tough West Coast swing, have revenge and I just can't see them losing for a third straight time to the Bulls this season, including a second straight at home. These teams rate fairly evenly in my book, so I absolutely think the home team deserves more respect. 10* Cleveland

10* LA Clippers (7:05 ET): The Clippers are reeling right now (lost 5 in a row), which I can't say is any kind of terrible surprise seeing as their hot start to the season was viewed as a surprise by many (including me). They've fallen to a precarious 8th place in a Western Conference where there's little margin for error and the team right behind them, the cross-town Lakers, will be getting LeBron back soon. Losing both Lou Williams and Danilo Gallinari hurts - figuratively AND literally - but the result of those injuries and the recent slide is that the Clips are getting A LOT of points tonight in San Antonio, far more than they should. Take the points in this one. 

The Spurs' season is trending in the opposite direction of the Clippers. Trading away Kawhi Leonard was supposed to signal a downturn in the Alamo, but as long as Greg Popovich is still coaching in San Antonio, this team is probably going to be good. They started 2018-19 slow and were particularly pourous on the defensive end. But they've certainly turned things around over the last month or so by going 16-6 SU their last 22 games. But even w/ such a run, they're still only two games up on the Clippers. Coming off B2B road wins (over Dallas & Minnesota), I think they're a little bit overvalued in this spot. 

Playing Golden State is always tough, but the Clippers did themselves no favors Friday by shooting only 36.5% from the field. I had the Under in that contest (won easily), so I was happy. But the Clippers are far better than how they've looked in this 0-5 SU/ATS stretch while I feel the Spurs are due to start "giving some back" after a 17-5 ATS run. This is just too many points for a Clippers team that should come out desperate here. San Antonio has actually been outscored over its last five games, despite going 3-2 SU. Two of the three wins have been by four points or less while the other was a double overtime game. 10* LA Clippers

10* Illinois (1:00 ET): I've had some pretty good success betting Big 10 games this year. Just yesterday, I was on Wisconsin, who handed Michigan its first loss of the year. I also won w/ Penn State plus the points over Minnesota. Another Big 10 matchup I cashed earlier in the week was Illinois over Minnesota. The Illini, a slight dog on their home floor, won "going away" by 27 points. It was a much needed result in what has been quite the unlucky season in Champaign-Urbana. Sunday finds the Illini getting more points against an Iowa team that I feel is "ripe for the pickin'." Take the points here. 

The Big 10 is very interesting this year. You could have as many as 10 teams making the NCAA Tournament. Michigan and Michigan State are the clear heavyweights. I happen to think that three of the more underrated teams in the country - Nebraska, Purdue and Wisconsin - hail from this league. I also think there's some overrated teams like Minnesota and Iowa. Illinois now has a chance to beat both overrated squads. They scored 51 pts in the 1st half against Minnesota on Wednesday and led for all but 28 seconds of that game. They ended up shooting 56.1% from the field.

Illinois had ample time to prepare for Minnesota (were off last weekend), but remember what I said in my analysis. They have played better than their record, even taking Michigan to the limit. They have three losses by exactly two points. As for Iowa, they've had quite the opposite kind of luck. They've pulled off three upsets in the last four games. They may or may not be getting leading scorer Tyler Cook back here. Cook sat out the win vs. Penn State earlier in the week as he's been hobbled by an ankle injury. But the Hawkeyes are 0 for their last 7 ATS in home games when the total is 155 to 159.5. That includes an 0-4 record this year. 10* Illinois

8* Penn State (8:30 ET):  I smell upset here. Isn't a little curious that a Penn State team that is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in Big 10 play is only a short road dog here to a Minnesota team that is 13-4 SU overall on the season? Of course, anyone who joined me for my ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL against the Golden Gophers on Wednesday knows that this team is pretty much a fraud. The Gophers lost by 27 at Illinois, a team that also was without a Big 10 win at the time. Take the points here! 

Penn State hasn't necessarily been bad this year, they've just been unlucky. Case in point, an 89-82 loss to Iowa on Wednesday where they were actually favored by 3.5 points. Iowa is a ranked team and the Nittany Lions held a five-point lead at the break. But it was not be as they ended the game w/ some extremely cold shooting. Up eight w/ just over 11 minutes to go in the game, they would go onto miss 16 of their next 21 shots and 10 in a row from three-point range. Also disappointing was the fact they didn't defend as well as they normally do. None of their previous five opponents had scored more than 71 points before Iowa (a good offensive team) went for 89. Despite this, the Nittany Lions still rank top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

In my writeup for that Minnesota-Illinois game, I said the line was just as curious as it looks to be here and this is due to the oddsmakers being all too aware how fraudulent the Gophers truly are. I talked about this quite a bit in the analysis for the Illinois game, but would like to add that this is a poor shooting team, from both two and three-point range as they sit outside the top 200 in percentage. They've been helped by a strong offensive rebounding rate, but that will probably go down here in Big 10 play. The Gophers really do not have a quality win. 8* Penn State

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons won last night here at home, beating Miami by a score of 98-93. They were 2.5-pt favorites and it was their 4th straight cover, a stretch which has also seen them go 3-1 SU as they try and remain relevant in the Eastern Conference playoff discussion. They're currently a game back of Charlotte (who hosts Phoenix today) for the 8th and final spot. Last night's win did not come w/o some attrition as Andre Drummond had to make an early exit after getting hit in the face. But despite them blowing all of a 16-pt lead, I was impressed w/ how they came back and won. Despite being in the second game of a back to back, I like them tonight. 

Sacramento's last game only further confirmed my general skepticism towards them. They were blown out in Charlotte, 114-95, which for me was a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER release (on the Hornets). The Kings, like the Pistons, are hovering right under the "cut line" for the playoffs. But they have a negative point differential, indicating their winning SU record is at least a little fraudulent. Their defense is bottom five in the league (in terms of points per game allowed) and while they've been able to go 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season, I wouldn't be surprised if this line "flips" before tipoff.

Playing without rest and possibly some key players hardly sounds ideal, but I expect the Pistons to "step up" here. Drummond is officially listed as questionable, though HC Dwane Casey has said he's "hopeful" he can play. Backup PG Ish Smith also left last night's game early and is listed as "day to day." This one simply boils down to the fact that I do not believe in Sacramento moving forward. Note this is a revenge game for the Pistons, who lost out in California nine days ago. But they played that game w/o Blake Griffin. We know Griffin will play here and he's been on fire of late, averaging 29.3 points on 51.4% shooting his L10 games. Look for the home team to roll. 10* Detroit 

Start time for this game has been moved up due to weather. Play is still valid!

10* Western Michigan (2:30 ET): Bowling Green is the only MAC team besides Buffalo w/o a conference loss, but to consider those two squads as anything close to equals would be downright laughable. Buffalo is a legit top 20 team in the country right now. I wouldn't even consider BG to be among the top 200. While the Falcons' Saturday opponent, Western Michigan, isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, I do like the Broncos plus the points here. Bowling Green is not accustomed to being this large of a favorite and will struggle here to win by any kind of margin. 

Bowling Green does enter this game on a seven-game ATS win streak. But the Falcons have been a slight underdog in three of their four MAC games, including here at home Tuesday where they escaped w/ a 79-78 victory over Ball State. They won that game despite shooting just 33.9% from the field. But they made 8 of the 20 three-pointers they took and were 29 of 33 from the FT line. Give credit to the Falcons for being 9-0 SU at home. They're averaging a lot of points here while visitors are shooting just 38.4% from the field. But I just don't see this good fortune continuing.

Western Michigan has dropped its last four games as well as seven of its last eight. As of now, they and Miami are the only teams in the MAC w/o a conference win. But the Broncos are coming off a couple of "game efforts" at home over the last week against Toledo and Buffalo. They actually gave Buffalo its toughest test in MAC play thus far - by far - as they led by 11 pts in the first half. Obviously, they weren't able to hold on, but they easily covered as 14-point home dogs. The L3 games have seen WMU score 73, 77 and 79 points. If they can get to that threshold today, then they'll have no problem covering this generous pointspread. 10* Western Michigan 

8* Duke (6:00 ET): This is a rare battle of teams each ranked #1 in different polls. Duke is the AP's top choice while Virginia is #1 according to the Coaches. This is just the 4th time this has happened in CBB history where teams ranked #1 in the two polls are meeting. Don't let the fact that Duke is w/o PG Tre Jones lure you into thinking the luster of this matchup is gone. I agree with the AP that the Blue Devils are the top team in the country, despite what happened to them earlier this week. Virginia is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the country, but I believe they will go DOWN on Saturday. Lay the points. 

It's certainly a bit odd to consider Duke an "anti-public" bet. But coming off a loss and w/o Jones, they are here. Facing an unbeaten team is also a contributing factor. But the Blue Devils have the depth to overcome the loss of Jones and will obviously be highly motivated coming off the 95-91 loss to Syracuse on Monday. That game saw them lose Jones to a separated shoulder just six minutes in and they were already w/o Cam Reddish. But Reddish is set to return here. Zion Williamson just set a Duke freshman record w/ 35 pts in that Syracuse game. The Blue Devils have outscored teams by more than 30 PPG here at Cameron Indoor Stadium. 

Virginia, as per usual, is the near the top of the country in defensive efficiency. They are giving up just 51.7 PPG and enter this game at 13-3 ATS. But two things to keep in mind here. One, it's hard to shake the memory of what happened to the Cavaliers in LY's NCAA Tournament. How will they handle this step up game? Two, I'm sure Duke remembers losing to Virginia LY here at home. This year's team is better w/ Williamson and R.J. Barrett and I don't see them going down in Durham two years in a row to the Hoos. This line should be higher. The fact that it's not is an overreaction to what happened Monday (Jones injury, Duke losing). 8* Duke

8* Oklahoma City (3:30 ET): Both of these teams are coming off results that are not indicative of where they're truly "at" and the better team is getting points. Oklahoma City suffered an upset at the hands of the LeBron-less Lakers Thursday night, which was actually the second straight head-scratching result for them. Earlier in the week, they lost at Atlanta. So that's two games in a row where the Thunder have lost outright as a double digit favorite. You just don't see that very often and I think they'll bounce back in this early start time Saturday afternoon. Take the points. 

Philadelphia just destroyed Indiana Thursday night, 120-96. That win was not free from criticism, however, as the team's decision to play an injured Joel Embiid received plenty of criticism from all the usual talking heads. Despite clearly being bothered by a bad back, Embiid had 22 points and 13 rebounds vs. the Pacers, which is right in line w/ his season averages. But I wonder if playing Thursday has an adverse effect on him here. Despite a 19-4 SU home record, I'm a little skeptical of the Sixers, who are just 4-9 ATS off a double digit win and lagging behind some of the other top teams in the East in key metrics such as point differential and net efficiency. 

For much of this year, Oklahoma City has led the league in defensive efficiency. Not in the last two games, however. The Hawks and Lakers torched them for a combined 280 pts, which is a stunning number. That Lakers game did go to overtime and they also recently lost to the Spurs 154-147 in double overtime. This team is better than its record, IMO, and has gone 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season. They should start to turn things around here as I see defensive improvement on its way against a Philly side who is "due" to dropoff at the offensive end anyway. 8* Oklahoma City 

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): There are only two unbeaten teams left in the country (Virginia, Michigan) and both face stern road tests on Saturday. Michigan, ranked #2 (AP) and #4 (Coaches) in the polls must visit Madison for this early tip and as of press time, I believe this line is trending in the WRONG directions. Don't let Wisconsin's six losses fool you; the Badgers will be the Wolverines most worthy adversary yet. Michigan has played only a handful of "true" road games so far (three to be exact) and this one happens to come at a team that is not only top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), but also top 20 in my own personal power ratings. 

Michigan is 17-0 overall and has started Big 10 play 4-0 ATS. But they've gotten dealt a "pretty easy hand" so far in conference play, drawing three of the league's four teams that likely won't be making the NCAA Tournament. You have to tip your cap to the job done by HC John Beilein here in Ann Arbor as once again he has his team overachieving. Last year's national runner-up came into the year barely even considered a top 20 team in the country. This 17-0 record is Michigan's best start EVER, but I believe a few losses are coming. They got career-highs from TWO players in last Saturday's 80-60 win over Northwestern. That won't be happening again on the road. 

Wisconsin enters this game off B2B losses, both by just four points. They've also dropped four of five, all by seven points or less. So it's not just facing a top 5 and unbeaten opponent in their gym that should have the Badgers motivated here. They desperately need a win as well. As I mentioned earlier, despite these recent results, I still have Wisconsin as a top 20 team nationally. It is not often you find them as an underdog at the Kohl Center. (Hasn't happened until now this season). Even last year when they had a down year, the Badgers were only a home dog three times. I'm taking the points here and obviously don't be surprised if it's an outright upset. 8* Wisconsin

10* Under Warriors/Clippers (10:35 ET): So, I guess we now have to get used to NBA totals in the 240's? It's become almost a nightly occurrence to see a 230+ pt total on the card, but thanks to Golden State (who else?) the bar is getting raised. In their last two games, the Warriors have scored an astronomical 289 pts by themselves (!) and their last game was a 147-140 final, which flew past a 241-pt total that tied for the highest O/U line in any game this season. For the record, there have only been nine games in NBA history (prior to tonight) w/ totals of 240 pts or higher. Four of them (and now a 5th) have taken place this season. Not surprisingly, the Warriors have been involved in 2 of the 4. Both of those games went Over. This one won't. Take the Under.

Golden State has gone Over in four straight games, scoring 140 or more in three of those. That's just ridiculous. They and New Orleans just set a record w/ 43 made three-pointers, breaking the "old" mark of 41, which was just set earlier this month when the Warriors beat the Kings. Steph Curry has made 28 three-pointers himself the L3 games, tying his own record, and has made at least eight in all three games. No player before him had ever made 8+ three-pointers in three straight games. I have to think that this ridiculous amount of scoring we're seeing from Curry and the Warriors is "due" to subside, at least a bit, no? 

There are two things that should disrupt the Warriors' recent rash of Overs. One is that DeMarcus Cousins is set to make his debut tonight. As good a player as "Boogie" is, he could very well disrupt the offensive flow. Two is that the Clippers are struggling right now. They've lost four in a row. The Under is also 6-2 in their L8 games. I realize that recent history says the Over is the way to go in this Pacific Division matchup (9 straight Overs!), but this O/U line is simply too high. 10* Under Warriors/Clippers 

8* Memphis (7:05 ET): It's a been a bit of a dicey period for the Celtics the last couple weeks with players calling each other out. There's been plenty of hand-wringing over "why this team isn't better," but the bottom line is that while the Celtics' record may not be what "it should be," they've still outscored the opposition this year by a healthy 6.1 PPG and that's the third best margin in the league right now (trailing only Milwaukee and Golden State). They are coming off a most impressive win Wednesday night over Toronto (117-108 as 3-pt home chalk), led by Kyrie Irving's 27 points and career-high 18 assists.

Whatever "ails" Boston right now is "small potatoes" to what is going on w/ Memphis. The Grizzlies have won just one time in the New Year (at San Antonio though) and are just 3-14 SU dating back to December 14th. They are 2-15 ATS during that same stretch. Fortunately for tonight, they are getting double digits. As long as the Grizzlies can maintain their defensive prowess (1st in the league in PPG allowed!), then I say they're a great value at this current price. Remember that Boston had lost three straight games, all as favorites, before beating Toronto two nights ago. 

These teams did play right before the New Year, in Memphis, with the Celtics winning 112-103 as 3.5-point chalk. Boston made 16 three-pointers in that game to Memphis' seven and that was the difference. However, the Grizzlies are 17-4 ATS all-time here in Beantown. This figures to be a pretty low-scoring game, which makes the underdog all the more attractive. The Celtics were very much on the verge of losing a 4th straight game when they were down four to Toronto w/ less than five minutes to go. My read is they'll likely win here, but not cover. Take the points. 8* Memphis

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): Led by a very good Buffalo team, the MAC is a surprisingly decent league this year. Granted, everyone else is playing for 2nd place (behind UB), but there's some quality squads here. One team that I think is a bit underrated at the moment is the contingent from Athens, Ohio. OU is just 1-3 SU in conference play thus far and has suffered a couple of losses when they were favored (Northern Illinois, Kent State) at home. But they also went on the road last week and posted a very nice 70-52 win at Ball State (as 10-pt underdogs). Not sure the Bobcats will win outright again tonight, but I love them plus the points in this spot. 

The one thing that caught my eye w/ this Ohio team is that they have a very high defensive efficiency rating. They're 45th in the  country (per KenPom) in that regard, which is second in the conference, right behind Buffalo. Offensively, things can get a bit dicey, but that is what the pointspread is there for. With a defense that can keep the opposition in check, the Bobcats become a very attractive play as underdogs. It was an absolutely dreadful shooting night that cost them earlier this week vs. Kent State. OU finished that game at just 31.7% from the field, including 4 of 20 from three-point range. Even on the road, you have to figure those numbers will go up tonight.

Toledo is a good team, but remember they started MAC play at 0-2 before rolling in their last two games. Back to back wins as favorites have the Rockets a little overvalued coming into this one, similar to when they hosted Ball State in the conference opener and lost 79-64. That was followed w/ a 30-point loss to Buffalo (gave up 110 points!), but getting Western Michigan and Miami OH B2B has got UT back on track. Still, those are two of the weaker teams in the MAC. The Rockets might be the better offensive team in this matchup, but they've still posted two double digit losses in games against teams I consider in the upper half of the MAC (Buffalo obviously included). This is a big revenge game for Ohio as well considering they were swept by the Rockets LY and are just 3-11 ATS the L14 meetings. Take the points. 10* Ohio

8* Ohio State (6:30 ET): The Big 10 is beyond loaded this year w/ possibly 10 teams NCAA Tournament bound (Illinois, Penn St, Rutgers, N'western are the exceptions). So, more often than not, a conference game is going to carry a lot of meaning. Take this one for example, which is crucial to Ohio State. The Buckeyes have lost three in a row, the last two coming on the road. That has them 10th in the standings. But they're back in Columbus Friday where they'll host a Maryland team whose 6-1 conference record trails only Michigan and Michigan State. I think it's time for the Terps to drop a game as I do NOT view them as better than "the rest of the pack" in the Big 10.

Ohio State's losing streak began w/ a loss here in Columbus to Michigan State. At the time, the Buckeyes were ranked #14 in the country and they looked to be sitting pretty w/ a seven-point halftime lead. But they let Sparty score 50 pts in the final 20 minutes of that game and still have yet to recover. A shocking upset loss at the hands of Rutgers soon followed, then came a loss at Iowa last weekend where they again fell apart in the 2nd half. The good news for this game is the schedule lines up in OSU's favor. They have not played since Saturday while Maryland had a tough game vs. Wisconsin on Monday. Tonight is the Terps' third game in the last eight days.

Maryland won that game over Wisconsin, 64-60 in College Park. It was their sixth straight win, however, three of those have been by three points or less. Again, I view this team as being more in line w/ the "rest of the pack" and not Michigan & Michigan State. So it makes sense that they would drop a game sooner rather than later. The Terps may be 4-0 ATS on the road, but Ohio State is 8-2 SU at home and the better defensive team, in my opinion. Last year, the Buckeyes destroyed the Terps 91-68 here in Columbus. It might not be that lopsided this time around, but OSU will win again. Lay the short number. 8* Ohio State 

8* Hawaii (10:00 ET): The "curious" case of Cal State Northridge continued last Saturday as the Matadors got me again w/ a 78-74 road win over Cal Poly. It was the second time in a week that this team, who I have ranked outside my top 300, proved me wrong. Last Wednesday, they won 84-83 at Cal Riverside. Have I simply underestimated this team? I don't think so. Two wins by a combined five points, even on the road, is not enough to lead to any kind of critical reassessment. They're back at home tonight, but I like Hawaii to hand them a dose of their own medicine.

Hawaii is 10-5 SU and been off for more than a week as they prepare to hit the mainland for the first time in 2019. In fact, this will be the Warriors first road game since playing at UCLA on November 28th and that is their ONLY "true" road game so far this season! They just completed a 6-1 SU homestand on the island w/ a 79-68 win over Cal State Fullerton as three-point favorites. That result ran their mark to a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored this year, so monitor that line. But no matter where the line ends up, make no mistake that Hawaii is still a strong play tonight against an opponent that is just bad on the defensive end. 

These teams split their pair of games last season and my goodness was it a tail of two shooting performances from Cal State Northridge. At home, they lost 65-46 as they shot a woeful 27.5% from the field. But out in Honolulu, they turned the tables w/ a 65.1% shooting night. But I say that no matter how well (or poorly) they shoot tonight, their poor defense will have them "behind the 8-ball." The Matadors still are giving up 83.0 points per game. Hawaii, meanwhile, does an excellent job at guarding the three-point line. Opponents are barely even shooting 30% from there this season. 8* Hawaii 

10* Middle Tennessee (7:30 ET): The Blue Raiders are having a somewhat disastrous season (3-14 SU record, 2-13 ATS), but they recently cashed for me in a decent showing at Southern Miss last week. The follow up to that was not good (I laid off) as they went to Louisiana Tech and fell 73-56. But now they're back at home for the first time in two weeks and desperate to end this ugly 13-game losing streak. In many ways, this play reminds me of last night's ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL on Illinois, who was another short home dog that many were quick to write off. I'll take the points here. 

UTSA is 10-7 SU so far. They have won and covered all four times that they have been favored. They are also 4-0 SU/ATS in conference play, one of only two teams in Conference USA w/o a league loss. (MTSU is only C-USA team w/o a win). But I'm not sure there's anyone that considers the Roadrunners as the top team in C-USA; in fact I wouldn't even have them top five. Two of their four conference wins came at the expense of UTEP in a "unique" scheduling spot where those teams played B2B games against one another. The Roadrunners did just earn an impressive win over North Texas, but that was by only two points and at home. They won on a last-second shot.

Going back to the end of December, UTSA has won seven straight games. It is their longest win streak in a decade and their first 4-0 start in conference play in 30 years. Meanwhile, it's been a long time since MTSU had this kind of year as the toll from former HC Kermit Davis bolting for Ole Miss is clearly being felt. That all being said, I still look at this game as a matchup where one team is due to regress and the other set to improve. To make a stock analogy, it's time to "sell high" on UTSA while we should "buy low" on Middle Tennessee. Despite the disparate records, I would still make the Blue Raiders a slight favorite on their home floor! 10* Middle Tennessee

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): We're barely past the midway point of the NBA season, but I think it should be apparent to all that in the Eastern Conference, five teams have clearly separated themselves from the pack. Two of them meet tonight, on TNT, in Indiana w/ the Pacers hosting the Sixers. To me, of the five teams that have separated themselves, Philly is definitely the weakest out of the group. Whether you're looking at point differential or net efficiency, they come up last. So Indiana laying essentially a "token amount" (of points) for being at home seems like a good value play to me. 

With LeBron James taking his talents out West, we knew the Eastern Conference would be relatively "wide open" this year. Still, I have to admit that I didn't think the Pacers would be this strong of a team. They are now tied for 1st in the league in defensive efficiency (w/ Milwaukee and OKC). But lately it has been the offense that has been rolling. They are off a 131-97 win over Phoenix (here at home) where they never trailed and led by as many as 37. Yes, that was "only Phoenix," but the Pacers were impressive nonetheless. It was their second highest scoring game of the year. Since X-Mas, they have averaged almost 120 PPG. 

Given the offensive performance in their last game (and who it came against), I'd be more leery to lay points w/ Indiana in this spot if not for the fact Philly also happens to be off its highest scoring effort of the year. They put up 149 points Tuesday in a blowout of the T'wolves. But that was at home. The road has been far less kind to the Sixers this year as they are just 10-12 SU (19-4 SU at home). Meanwhile, Indiana is 15-5 SU at home and outscoring teams by almost 10 PPG. I think home court really matters this matchup and the Pacers are already the stronger team on paper. Philly is just 1-4 ATS this season after posting a 130+ pt effort. Lay the points. 8* Indiana 

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Two teams hovering around the .500 mark meet Thursday night in the Queen City. I love the matchup from the Hornets' perspective. This is a team that has generally played better than its record, not just this season, but for the last several seasons. What has burned them is an atrocious 4-22 SU record in games decided by 3 pts or less the L3 seasons (3-8 TY). They're also 0-4 in overtime this season. Still though, they have managed to outscore their opposition and they enter this game off a very nice win in San Antonio (108-93 as 7-point dogs) Monday night. 

I've gone on the record as a skeptic of the Kings, who are surprisingly still above .500. It's been a long time since we could say that about them in January (Chris Webber days?), but the bottom line is they have the Western Conference's third worst point differential due to still being one of the worst defensive teams in the league (26th in PPG allowed). Somewhat shockingly, Sacramento has been the betting favorite in each of its L5 games! They went 4-1 SU & ATS in that stretch to improve to 10-1 SU/9-2 ATS as chalk on the season. They've really beaten up on the lesser foes on their schedule, going 15-4 SU vs. sub-.500 foes. 

Charlotte might technically be a sub-.500 team, but I have them rated as a better team than Sacramento and I think this is going to be a big game for Kemba Walker and the Hornets. It's their first game back home after a six-game Western Conference swing (went 2-4 SU) while the Kings are just starting their own six-game swing out East. The Kings actually got more points from their bench than the starters in Monday's 114-107 win against Portland. They won't be able to rely on such production on the road (where role players typically don't play as well) and that defense remains a valid concern. Charlotte is 14-8 SU at home this year, including 12-6 when favored. The pointspread is of little concern in this matchup, so I'm laying the points in what should be a Hornets victory. 10* Charlotte 

8* Illinois (9:00 ET): Many are going to look at this game and see a 13-3 team barely favored over 4-12 team. In terms of the ratio of tickets written on the two sides here, the result will be predictable. Minnesota figures to be (and is) a popular public choice, but I'm here to tell you not to fall for the trap. Illinois has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country thus far and is actually far better than its record suggests. The Illini have lost three games this year by exactly two points. Something else you should consider is Minnesota's 0-6 ATS record when facing an opponent that has a losing record. 

Illinois comes into this game on a five-game losing streak, which includes two of their three two-point losses. Their most recent defeat came at the hands of unbeaten Michigan, 79-69, right here in Champaign-Urbana. The Illini actually outshot the Wolverines, even holding them to just 5 of 19 from the three-point range. But that discrepancy was made up for at the FT line where Michigan went 18 of 22 while Illinois was just 4 of 7 (at home!). Something key (for me) in handicapping tonight's game is that Illinois has had a little extra time to prepare. That Michigan game was last Thursday. They were off over the weekend.

Minnesota won on Saturday, 88-70 over Rutgers. But that was a good spot for the Golden Gophers. Not only were they getting the Scarlet Knights in a clear letdown spot (Rutgers had just upset Ohio State for their biggest win in YEARS), but Rutgers was also missing its best player (Eugene Omoruyi) and it showed. Omoruyi got hurt in the upset of Ohio State, so it was the Scarlet Knights' first time playing w/o him (he's also their leading rebounder). Minnesota did go to Wisconsin and win earlier this month, but I do not consider them even one of the NINE best teams in the Big 10 right now. They are ripe for the "pickin" tonight. 8* Illinois 

10* Butler (8:30 ET): Butler is coming off B2B 1-pt losses, both on the road. The first was to Seton Hall, a game where the Bulldogs scored 50 pts in the 2nd half, yet still came up just short. The second was to Xavier as this time they succumbed to a second half rally (blew 10-pt lead). That Xavier loss was particularly frustrating in the sense that the Bulldogs not only shot the ball well, but also much better than their opponents. But Xavier got to the free throw line way more (double the attempts) and was +11 in scoring there, and that proved to be the difference in the ballgame.

While still on the road, tonight sets up as the easiest game of the the trip for Butler. That's confirmed by the fact they are slightly favored. A win here would give the Bulldogs some positive "momentum" (still hate that word) going into home games vs. St. John's and Big East leader Villanova over the next week. Depaul is a team they've beaten four times over the past two seasons, three of those victories coming by double digits. Maybe the gap isn't quite as large in 2019, but Butler still is the better team. Butler has lost four of five overall, but is still a top 40 team in the country in my eyes. 

Three days before Butler lost to Seton Hall by a point, Depaul picked up a one-point victory over the Pirates. That win saw some remarkable shooting from the Blue Demons and snapped a three-game losing streak. Then came a surprise win at St. John's over the weekend. However, it should be noted the Blue Demons benefited from playing St. John's w/o its leading scorer and assist man Shamorie Ponds. That was another game where FT differential mattered as Depaul went 17 of 28 from the charity stripe while St. John's (at home!) was just 4 of 6. Don't let recent results fool you; Butler is the better team here and justifiably favored. 10* Butler

10* Over Magic/Pistons (7:05 ET): Both of these teams got off to surprisingly good starts to the season. But, in each instance, that's rapidly faded. Orlando, even after big upsets over Boston and Houston in the last week, is five games below .500. Right behind them (by one-half game) is Detroit, who has lost 17 of its last 22 games. But in the watered down Eastern Conference, no one is really ever out of it (well, there are a few teams) and these two actually rank 9th and 10th in the Conference respectively. I anticipate this being a higher scoring game than anticipated. Take the Over.

The Magic beating the Celtics and Rockets on B2B nights is not something I, nor anyone else outside of Orlando, saw coming. Against Boston, they trailed by 10 at halftime even though there was a stretch where they'd held the Celtics w/o a field goal for 5:45. The win over Houston was another rally as this time the Magic found themselves down seven w/ just under five minutes to go. They were very lucky in that James Harden had an all-time horrific night shooting the ball as he went 1 for 17 from three-point range. Detroit isn't known as a three-point shooting team, but they should easily top what Harden did from distance. Orlando has largely been an "Under team" this season, but the Over is 9-3 when they're off a SU win as a dog. 

Detroit has seen its last four games all stay Under the total, but those numbers were all higher than the O/U line for tonight. They were held to just 94 points Monday night in Utah, on 38.9% shooting, but that was against a Jazz team that ranks near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. It should also be pointed out that game did feature a pretty high-scoring 1st half as it was 59-53 Pistons heading into the break. Unfortunately, Detroit could only manage 35 points in the second half. The last time these teams played, the game went Over despite them combining to go 15 of 59 from three-point range. 10* Over Magic/Pistons 

10* Denver (9:05 ET): Golden State has NOT been the same team this year as in year's past. Some of that has been injuries. They're still one of the top teams in the league mind you, perhaps still the team to beat, but that aura of invincibility seems to have evaporated. I know they didn't go into the playoffs as the #1 seed LY, but virtually all numbers are down across the board this season. Perhaps most concerning of all is that they have slipped to the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency after three top five finishes in the previous four seasons. Tonight is a huge showdown in Denver and I do not think the Dubs should be favored in this spot, which is something I rarely say.

Last year, it was the Rockets. This year, Denver has emerged as the top challenger to Golden State's throne in the Western Conference. The Nuggets currently have a one-half game lead for the top spot in the standings and are probably the deepest team in the league right now. They too have battled injuries and the fact they're still ahead of the Warriors is impressive. So is their record at home. They've gone 18-3 SU at the Pepsi Center this year and won their last 12 games here. They've outscored opponents by 11.3 points per game and are 14-7 ATS despite the average line being about six points for their home games. 

Golden State comes into this Tuesday night showdown having won four straight, all against lesser foes. In fact, two of the games saw them favored by 17 or more points. This will be one of their biggest tests all season. Denver comes in not only having won 12 straight home games, but 8 of 10 overall. They already beat the Warriors once on this floor, 100-98, back in October. Golden State is just 4-7 ATS playing w/ revenge this season The Nuggets, like the Warriors, are healthier than they've been in a while. Nikola Jokic turned in a 40-10 game against Portland on Sunday and the team is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season when coming off a division game. 10* Denver

10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): Cincy has has its fair share of problems w/ the pointspread here in 2019. Their three-game ATS slide began w/ a real head-scratching defeat at East Carolina (where they were 17.5-point favorites!) on 1.5. Over the course of the last week they did win a pair of games, both in overtime, but didn't cover either. They beat Tulsa by five and UConn by only two. As a result, the line for tonight's home date w/ USF opened a lot lower than it should have. This is an opponent that the Bearcats have handled through the years, winning 13 straight, although they are just 3-10 ATS in those 13 SU wins. Tonight, I look for them to "get back on track" w/ a blowout victory. Lay the number here. 

South Florida comes into this game w/ a 12-4 SU and ATS record, so most are going to be tempted by them getting double digits in this spot. Don't be. Looking over USF's resume brings me back to a few months ago when I was warning clients about how overrated the school's football program was in spite of an undefeated SU record. For the record, the Bulls' hoops team is just outside my top 150 teams in the country at this point. They have really not played anyone of note this entire season. It's true that all four of their losses have been by three points or less. But two of those have come in the L3 games (at Tulsa, at Temple). Their last game (at Temple) also went to OT and they were lucky to get past regulation as they trailed by 14 at the half. This is a team that won only 10 games all of last season. 

Cincinnati will easily be the best team USF has faced all season.  The Bearcats bring it on the defensive end, giving up just 58.5 PPG at home. That's a big reason why they're 10-1 SU here. They are top 25 in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and to me, on the fringes of being a top 25 team in America. The loss to East Carolina was definitely head-scratching (they let the Pirates shoot 51.1%). It should be noted that the two OT wins over the last week both saw Cincy leading comfortably in the second half, only to squander said leads. They led Tulsa by six w/ less than two minutes to go in regulation and UConn by as many as 11. Not only is this spread justified, it should be higher. 10* Cincinnati 

8* Ball State (7:00 ET): While undoubtedly "under the radar," Ball State probably just had as bad a 7-day stretch as any team in the country last week. They lost outright twice - both times as double digit favorites - and those games were in Muncie! That has the Cardinals reeling a bit in the MAC West, a division that looked like it could be theirs for the taking following a 79-64 win at Toledo earlier this month. But the good news is that there's plenty of time to recover and I think the team is being severely mispriced tonight at Bowling Green. This is a game the Cardinals should win easily. 

Bowling Green does come in hot as they're on a seven-game win streak. They've covered all six games that were lined, including a couple of minor upsets at Kent State and Central Michigan. The Falcons are now tied w/ Buffalo (the clear conference heavyweight) atop the MAC East. But don't expect that to last for too long. I think too many will be infatuated w/ BGSU's 8-0 SU home record here and the fact they are 6-0 ATS when there's been a line in those games. I'm not. The last time the Falcons started MAC play 3-0 was 2004-05 and while all three wins have come by double digits, the last one (at Central Mich) actually required overtime. 

I have no unearthly idea what happened w/ Ball State Saturday at home vs. Ohio. The Cardinals fell behind quickly and it was basically over from the start. They trailed 39-18 at halftime and ended up shooting a pitiful 1 of 12 from three-point range (overall FG% was just 35.4). Even on the road, those numbers HAVE to come up tonight. The loss to Eastern Michigan was a double OT affair that saw the Cards again fall victim to ridiculous three-point shooting, only this time it was by the opponent, who was 61.5% from behind the arc. Recent results have incorrectly influenced this line and I'm taking full advantage. 8* Ball State 

8* Play Over Pistons/Jazz (9:05 ET): So these teams just met nine days ago and I took the Over in what ended up being a 110-105 Utah win and cover. Both teams shot an identical percentage from the floor (47.6%), each going 39 of 82. The Pistons also outshot the Jazz from three-point range, making 11 of 25 as opposed to just 7 of 21 for Utah. Detroit was also 80% from the free throw line, but Utah had 12 more attempts and made nine of them. That was the difference in the ballgame. I thought the total was too low in the Motor City and the oddsmakers still haven't adjusted for the rematch here in Salt Lake City. I'm on the Over again. 

Something else I've written about recently is how you're going to see the Jazz go on a nice run here in January. I said this before taking them Friday night against LA, a game they easily covered as 8.5-pt chalk as they won 113-95. They won again the following night, again here at home, 110-102 over Chicago (though they did not cover). The schedule sets up well for Utah moving forward as this is their fourth straight game playing as a home favorite. They'll visit the Clippers on Wednesday, but after that it's four more home games and they should be favored every time.

Utah has won and covered five straight times against Detroit. To have any chance of snapping that streak, the Pistons are going to have to find a way to score (obviously!) as they come in averaging just 104.6 points over the L5 games. Not a terrible average, but a slight increase would be helpful here. For them, tonight is the end of a four-game trip out West. The Under is 3-0 so far, but the totals for the previous three games were all much higher than this one. They did just upset the Clippers on Saturday, led by Blake Griffin's 44 points. So if you want to know where the offense is likely to come from, there you go. Utah is shooting 46.7% for the year at home where it averages 111.1 PPG. An average game from the two sides, in terms of points scored and allowed, would work itself out to an Over here. An "average game" doesn't sound that difficult to me. 8* Over Pistons/Jazz 

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): The Grizzlies have had a heck of a time covering games lately as their ATS record since December 14th is a money-burning 2-13. But that didn't stop me from taking them last Wednesday against the Spurs, whom they upset 96-86 in an outright win as 8.5-point road underdogs. They had two days off following that result, so it had to be considered a huge disappointment to then lose a closely contested game down in Miami, 112-108, Saturday (blew a DD 1st half lead). I realize there's some "internal strife" going on w/ the team, but they're in an excellent spot plus the points tonight in Houston. I'll take the Grizz as underdogs yet again. 

Houston is the second night of a back to back and suffered a surprising loss last night in Orlando. James Harden had an absolutely dreadful night shooting, particularly from three-point range where he went 1 for 17! Though Harden still ended up w/ 38 pts, tying Kobe Bryant's streak of 16 straight 30+ point games, the 16 misses from behind the arc tied a more dubious NBA record. Harden will probably shoot a better percentage from 3-pt range tonight, but the streak of 30+ pt games is still going to come to an end sooner rather than later. Remember that the Rockets are still w/o Chris Paul by the way (helps explain Harden's recent scoring surge).

Memphis' strength lies on the defensive end where they give up only 102.7 PPG. That's the best number in the league, mind you. So provided they can find a way to score, they should have no problem covering this generous number against an unrested foe. Chandler Parsons has taken a leave of absence from the team and Kyle Anderson is hurt, but that's nothing compared to how short-handed the Rockets are coming into this one. Not only is Paul out, but so is Eric Gordon and Clint Capella is listed as questionable due to a thumb injury suffered last night. The Rockets are 3-10 ATS this season after allowing 115+ points in their previous game (gave up 116 last night). This is a double revenge spot for the Grizzlies as well. 10* Memphis 

8* Play on Nebraska (6:30 ET): As of this writing, Indiana is still ranked (#22), but that's likely to change before tipoff as they lost to Maryland on Friday. Interestingly enough, despite that ranking, this is the second straight game where the Hoosiers are NOT the higher rated team in my eyes. You needed to look no further than the pointspread for confirmation of that in the Maryland game. IU was a 5.5-pt dog in College Park and backers were lucky to get a miracle "backdoor" cover on a last-second three that made the game a 78-75 final. Here, Indiana's "inferiority" isn't quite as obvious, but I personally have Nebraska rated noticeably higher in my own personal power ratings. Take the points. 

I've written this before, but it bears repeating here. I'm pretty high on this Cornhuskers squad and believe them to be one of the more underrated teams in the country right now. They're top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom) and coming off a 70-64 win over Penn State on Thursday. They come into this game having had one more day than Indiana to prepare. Nebraska is outscoring teams by almost 18 PPG this year. While they're 0-3 in Big 10 road games thus far (including a 2-pt loss at Maryland), the Huskers do own a win at Clemson earlier in the year.

This game being in Bloomington figures to be a big talking points coming into this game. Yes, Indiana is 10-0 SU at home this year. But isn't it curious then that they're not favored by more? The Hoosiers are in the same predicament Nebraska found itself in Thursday, that being off B2B road losses. They blew a 14-pt 1st half lead vs. Maryland after losing to Michigan. Nebraska is one of the few teams in the Big 10 (or country, for that matter) that can shoot the ball as well as IU. The Hoosiers' depth is currently being tested as several reserves are injured. In the last two games, they've gotten a grand total of TWO points from their bench! Meanwhile, I actually think it was a good sign for Nebraska that they were able to win Thursday despite leading scorer James Palmer Jr scoring only 11 pts on 3 of 12 shooting. He has eight 20+ pt games this year and averages 19.5 PPG. He'll bounce back tonight and lead his team to the cover (and likely SU win). 8* Nebraska

10* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): You might be wondering why a 6-10 team that's struggled at the betting window (N Iowa) would be laying points to a 12-4 team (Drake) that's been highly profitable. Well, unless you've been following the Missouri Valley closely, then you are likely unaware that Drake lost senior guard Nick Norton (14.0 PPG) for the season to an ACL injury. In addition to being second on the team in scoring, Norton was the assist leader. It's a loss that will be very difficult to overcome and likely derails the Bulldogs season. 

Today will be the first road game for Drake since the Norton injury, which occurred at Evansville back on the 2nd of this month. The Bulldogs lost that Evansville game in double overtime (Norton injury occurred in 1st half) and then predictably got humbled by Loyola-Chicago at home last weekend (lost by 11). The team did bounce back Tuesday, beating Southern Illinois at home, 82-70 as a two-point dog. That was a situation where the oddsmakers had clearly overadjusted for the injury. But here's a spot where the opposite holds true. I just don't see Drake winning, given that they already allow 79.6 PPG away from home.

Northern Iowa was a nice winner for me that same night Norton got hurt. The Panthers went to Bradley and won outright, 65-47 as 7.5-point dogs. They've since resumed their losing ways, dropping a couple close ones to Southern Illinois and Illinois State. But this is a good bounce back spot in Cedar Falls as UNI has to start improving upon a 3-11 ATS mark for this year (they're 24-46 ATS L3 seasons). The Panthers play good defense at home, giving up just 64 PPG. Drake has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 11 visits to Cedar Falls. I do not expect their hot three-point shooting from the start of the season to continue (Norton was 40.0%) while at the same time, their turnover rate (already an alarming 19.2%) should continue to rise. 10* Northern Iowa

8* Under Bucks/Hawks (3:35 ET): This total is simply too high, especially if Giannis Antetokounmpo ends up not playing. Sure, we know the Bucks can score on Atlanta. The last time these teams played, Milwaukee was my 10* Game of the Week and they hung 144 pts on the Hawks, making 55 of the 100 shots they attempted. That's a ridiculous percentage considering the number of field goal attempts and something that's unlikely to be repeated, especially on the road and possibly w/o their best player. For the record, with or without "The Greek Freak," this Under play stands. 

Antetoukounmpo is expected to play here as he was upgraded to probable this morning. When the Bucks trounced the Hawks earlier this month, none of the starters played more than 22 minutes as it was a 43-14 game at the end of one quarter. I would not expect that kind of game to unfold yet again here, even if Milwaukee ends up winning comfortably. On the road, the Bucks' scoring average "dips" to 113.1 PPG, down from 120.5 at home. The Under is 12-6 this year for them when the face a team w/ a losing record. Atlanta has one of the worst records in the league at 13-29 SU. 

The Bucks did just lose w/o Antetokounmpo, 113-106 at Washington, so that might give Atlanta some hope here. Plus, the Hawks are off a pretty shocking results as they went to Philly on Friday as DD underdogs and came away w/ a 123-121 victory. However, take note that the Under is 29-12 the L3 seasons when Atlanta is off an outright win as a dog. That includes 8-2 this season. The Hawks are near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency (29th). Milwaukee has gone Under in its last three games. 8* Under Bucks/Hawks 

8* play on Charlotte (10:05 ET): I fully understand that no one is going to be in a rush to place a bet on the Hornets tonight after the way they were embarrassed last night in Portland. But if anyone should apprehensive and/or embarrassed, it would be me as I'm sad to report I actually took Charlotte last night. They were quickly run out of the gym by the Blazers and entered the 4th quarter down 33 points (outscored by double digits in each of those first three quarters). It was a dreadful effort at both ends, one I surmise the team is going to be eager to atone for tonight. 

Sacramento is playing .500 ball through the first 42 games, which is a far cry from what we've seen from them the last decade. But I remain highly skeptical that they're going to remain "afloat" in what is perhaps the most loaded Western Conference in recent memory. They've been outscored on the season, mainly because no team out West gives up more points per game (116.0). That's eventually going to catch up w/ them, especially as they continue to be favored. Shockingly, tonight will be the 4th straight game where the Kings are favored (when's the last time that happened?). They've fared well as chalk so far (8-1 SU/7-2 ATS), but again, I just don't see it lasting.

The Kings turned in a far better than usual defensive performance Thursday vs. Detroit, thanks in large part to Blake Griffin being a late scratch for the Pistons. Coming off a double digit win, the team is just 4-18 SU the L3 seasons and 6-16 ATS. You can bet it's been rare that they've been favored in this spot. Sure enough, it was the case Tuesday in Phoenix when they lost outright. Charlotte has a better YTD point differential than Sacramento, thus I'm seeing value in the current number, which is inflated due to the Hornets having played poorly last night. 8* Charlotte 

10* Play on Cal Poly (10:00 ET): I continue to be a little astounded at how a bad team like Cal State Northridge is being priced on the road. Granted I was wrong on Wednesday when they went out and beat UC Riverside 84-83, a final that fell very close to the number. But still, the Matadors don't have a profile of a team that should be EXPECTED to win on the road as they're just dreadful defensively (83.6 PPG allowed) and aren't in my top 300 teams in the country. Cal Poly also happens to be on the "wrong side" of 300 in my own personal power ratings, but they're at home Saturday night and thus deserve to be favored, at least by the token amount. Go w/ the home side here. 

It's not been a good season for Cal Poly as they're only 4-10 SU and have lost five of their last six. Their last win over a D-I opponent came back on December 8th, over Bethune-Cookman, by just two points. So this sets up as a pretty ugly battle at the bottom of the Big West, but one thing that I expect is for the Mustangs to score more than usual in this game. Their last two games on the road have produced dreadful offensive showings. They shot just 37.7% from the field Wednesday against UCSB, including 7 of 25 from three-point range. They also attempted only 7 free throws in the contest and made just three. Numbers should be up across the board tonight as like I said earlier, Cal State Northridge is not a good team defensively. 

Cal State Northridge has been involved in a lot of close games recently w/ their last six all decided by eight points or less. Thus, because they're typically the underdog, they've managed to go 8-1 ATS their last nine contests. But I just can't see this team winning B2B games on the conference road. Terrell Gomez had a career-high 32 pts against UC Riverside on Wednesday and the Matadors probably aren't getting that kind of game from him again. Also note they trailed by seven at the half in that last game. There's been only one game all year that the Matadors didn't give up at least 77 points. That's bad. When these teams met on this floor LY, Cal Poly scored 90. 10* Play on Cal Poly

10* Play OVER Celtics/Magic (7:05 ET): It's been a tale of two games this week for Boston, who blew out Indiana Wednesday (at home), only to then lose at Miami on Thursday. In my eyes, this is a team destined to move up the Eastern Conference standings in the second half of the season as the own the second best point differential in league right now. I find that point diff is a far better predictor of future performance than is a team's actual won-loss record. That being said, I still would be a little guarded about laying this many points on the road tonight, even though the opponent has struggled mightily of late. 

This season got off to a somewhat promising start for Orlando, but they've hit the skids hard. They just ended a six-game road trip w/ four consecutive losses, all by double digits. In the last three, they failed to score even 100 points every time. I realize that facing a Boston team that ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency doesn't exactly scream "offensive turnaround," however the Magic do average a respectable number of points per game at home (105.9). Curiously, they also allow FAR more points per game at home (111.4) than they do on the road (105.0). Boston should score plenty in this game. 

Despite ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency, the Celtics still give up 108 PPG on the road. The Over is 14-7 in their 21 road games so far and the number of points they're allowing has to be considered the main reason they have a losing record (10-11 SU) outside of Beantown. Thursday in Miami marked just the fifth time the Celtics were beaten by double digits this season. The Over is 3-1 off the previous four instances. The Over is also 9-2 their L11 games overall. The Miami game marked the 1st time Boston had been held under 100 pts (they scored 99) since a game vs. Utah on November 17th. When they hosted Orlando back in October, it was their lowest scoring game of the season (lost 93-90), but that was a dreadful shooting night for both sides and only 19 total free throws were attempted in the contest. 10* Play OVER Celtics/Magic

8* San Diego State (4:00 ET): I won w/ SDSU on Tuesday and quite frankly, it was even easier than I expected as they dispatched of Wyoming, 84-54 as 13.5-pt chalk. Taking advantage of an opponent that was down to just seven scholarship players, the Aztecs wasted little time in taking control of their 1st conference home game. They led by 23 going into the break and in terms of shooting, it was the complete opposite of what we saw vs. Boise State. Though back on the road Saturday afternoon, I have little doubt that the Aztecs should roll against a bad Air Force squad. Lay the short number. 

Air Force has lost five of its last six games, including B2B double digit defeats. Now both of those losses took place on the road, one at Utah State (by 17) and the other at Colorado State (by 23). But it's not like the Flyboys are particularly dominant here in Colorado Springs where their SU record is only 4-3 for the year. The Falcons lost their 1st MWC home game - to New Mexico - by seven points. They and Wyoming are the only MWC teams at 0-3 SU in conference play right now. The Falcons trailed by as many as 25 against Colorado State and were down double digits virtually the entire game. This is not a very good team, plain and simple. 

San Diego State has lost its two road games, at Cal and Boise State, somewhat skewing their home vs. road splits. But the Aztecs are a team that can score as is evident by the fact they come in averaging 76.5 PPG. It's kind of been "feast or famine" of late w/ the L6 games seeing them score 84+ three times, but also 65 or less in the other three. The AFA allows 71.8 PPG for the year, but has given up 79 and 87 its L2 games. Another key is that SDSU is 3-1 ATS this year after allowing fewer than 60 pts in its last game. They've won three straight over Air Force, all of the wins coming by at least 11 points. 8* San Diego State

8* Play on Utah (10:05 ET): I'm going to go on the record here and predict that the Jazz are about to go on a serious run. The upcoming schedule sets up quite well for them with seven of the next eight games taking place at home. Part of the reason this teams is still floundering around .500 is that they've played a league-low 17 home games to this point. The current homestand is already off to a good start as they beat Orlando by 13 here on Wednesday night. That game didn't necessarily start well (Jazz trailed by 17 at halftime), but led by Donovan Mitchell's 33 points, they dominated the second half. 

The big story for the Lakers is that LeBron James is still going to be out another week as he continues to nurse that groin injury suffered in the X-Mas Day win over Golden State. Though off B2B wins, the Lakers have gone just 3-5 SU w/o LeBron. Even when James returns, I'm not sure this team is going to make the playoffs in what is a very loaded Western Conference. Given the B2B wins, I can see how it would be tempting to take the Lakers plus the points. But I'm here to advise you to the contrary as Utah has been a much better team offensively at home, averaging 111.0 PPG. 

The Lakers got a season-best and career-best performance from two players in the L2 games. Against Dallas, it was Brandon Ingram scoring a season-high 29 points. Versus Detroit, Kyle Kuzma scored a career-best 41 points (in just three quarters). I wouldn't be too confident in either player duplicating those kind of performances here as Utah has risen back up to 5th in the league in defensive efficiency. Despite being in 9th place, the Jazz are actually 5th in the West in both net efficiency rating and point differential. So that's another sign that a run is likely forthcoming. The Lakers are actually 8th in both categories. 8* Play on Utah

10* Charlotte (10:05 ET): The Hornets could really use a win here as they've fallen two games below .500. That's by no means the end of the world in the weak Eastern Conference, but 8th place (their current position) is a precarious place to be in. The Hornets lost their last time out 128-109 at the Clippers as they continue to try and navigate this West Coast swing w/o Cody Zeller. Tonight is the fourth game of a six-game trip, but at least they will have had two full days off since losing to the Clippers. I think Charlotte is a getting too many points in this one. 

Portland was responsible for my *10* Total of the Week cashing Wednesday night as they shot 56.6% from the floor in a 124-112 home win against lowly Chicago. This game isn't going to be nearly as easy w/ the Hornets coming in desperate and obviously they're simply a better team than the Bulls. The Blazers have had some nice wins to start the year, including beating OKC and Houston here at home, but might they be looking forward to Sunday's game in Denver? That's a distinct possibility. I also wouldn't look for Portland's bench to contribute as much here as they did vs. Chicago (56 points!). 

In terms of efficiency, these teams are actually close to even. Charlotte actually owns a slight edge on the offensive end while Portland is a little better defensively. Still, even w/ as well as Portland is playing at the start of 2019, I'm not sure they deserve to be laying quite this many points. It should be pointed out that not only did the Blazers just beat the Bulls, they played the Knicks before that. So Charlotte will definitely be a "step up" in competition. Kemba Walker (25.5 PPG) is one of the NBA's leading scorers and I look for him to have a big game tonight and keep the Hornets in this one. 10* Charlotte 

10* Wright State (7:00 ET): These are the two top teams in the Horizon this year, a league which has become quite watered down through the years (no more Butler or even Valpo). So far in 2019, Northern Kentucky has been the one to seemingly emerge as the true favorite to win the regular season crown. The Norse are 13-4 SU w/ a perfect 10-0 record at home. They're off to a 3-1 start in conference play w/ the lone loss coming last Thursday, by two points, on the road vs. Oakland. But considering the stakes here, I view Northern Kentucky as overvalued coming into the first game w/ Wright State this year. Take the points. 

Wright State played the same two teams Northern Kentucky did last week, also both on the road, just in reverse order. They also experienced opposite results, losing at Detroit, but then beating Oakland. After that 1-1 Michigan split, the Raiders are now set for their biggest road test of the entire conference schedule. The schedule makers have not been kind to Wright State as they'll end up playing five in a row on the road after all is said and done next week. They hadn't won a single time away from home before beating Oakland on Saturday, so it might seem like they're in trouble here, but I think it's quite the contrary. 

This is the first time Wright State will have been an underdog in conference play this season. They did sweep Northern Kentucky last year, winning both games by a total of just five points. For what it's worth, it was Wright State picked over Northern Kentucky in the preseason Horizon League poll. As good as Northern Kentucky has looked at home so far, the last five meetings between these teams have all been decided by seven points or less. Wright State might only be 8-9 SU this season, but they have six losses by seven points or less, not to mention four by 4 pts or less. They're a better team than their SU record and I expect them to "show up" in a big way tonight. 10* Wright State

8* Detroit (10:05 ET): The Pistons lost again Wednesday night, this time to the LeBron-less Lakers. The final score was 113-100 as they fell victim to a 41-point outburst from Kyle Kuzma, who played just three quarters. That's a pretty embarrassing setback all things considered and if the Pistons want to be considered a playoff team they can't afford to drop another game tonight. I know the Lakers were w/o LeBron last night, but I find it interesting that the Kings are laying more points to Detroit than LA did. This looks to be a classic scenario where the team playing in the second night of back to back is being undervalued. Detroit is desperate at this point. Grab the points. 

For some time now, I've been writing how skeptical I am over Sacramento's chances to stay viable in the playoff hunt in an absolutely loaded Western Conference. Sure enough, my skepticism is starting to come to fruition as the Kings have dropped four of their last five games. Their most recent setback came Tuesday as they blew a 21-point lead on the road and lost at Phoenix. That'll be tough to overcome and it should be pointed out that the Suns are the only team "out of it" in the Western Conference. The Kings simply aren't favored very often (happened only 8 times), so they make a good fade for me tonight as it's even more rare to see them laying this many points. 

The Pistons have dropped three in a row, six out of their last seven and 15 out of their last 19 games. Playing the second night of a back to back might seem like the LEAST likely time for them to turn things around, but they are facing the team that gives up the most points per game (116.4) in the Western Conference.  That should allow for a Detroit team that often struggles to score to "make some hay" tonight. The Pistons have covered three of their four times they've been in the 2nd game of a back to back. They're getting too many points here and an outright win would not surprise me in the least. 8* Detroit 

10* Oklahoma City (9:35 ET): The Thunder are in off B2B outright losses (to Washington & Minnesota!), both at home no less. But they're in a great spot tonight to ambush the Spurs, who had to play last night. We won going against San Antonio Wednesday, calling it an "ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL" and sure enough they lost outright in Memphis, 96-86. While that was just the fourth loss for the Spurs in their L17 games, I'll call for them to drop B2B games for the 1st time since early December as they're "due" to start giving some back following a 14-2 ATS stretch. 

I actually was a winner in OKC's last game as well, only w/ the Over. They were facing Minnesota and it ended up being a wild shootout w/ the Thunder coming out on the losing end, 119-117. Honestly, I'm not sure how OKC lost that game to a Minnesota team playing for the 1st time since firing Tom Thibodeau. Well, actually I do. Free throws were the difference w/ the T'wolves going 32 of 40 from the line. Andrew Wiggins was 16 of 18 alone while OKC made only 19 FT's as a team for the entire game. Still, the Thunder are 10 games above .500 and own the best YTD point differential in the Western Conference. 

Being in the second night of a back to back is not good news for the Spurs as they are just 1-6 SU in that role this season. They'll also be w/o forward Rudy Gay again. It was certainly an ugly offensive showing last night w/ San Antonio tying a season-low w/ 31 pts in the 1st half. They also set season lows in field goals made (30) and assists (14). While at home tonight, they'll be facing an OKC team that ranks #1 in the league in defensive efficiency by a fairly comfortable margin. Again, I come back to the likelihood of the Spurs "giving some back" after the incredible stretch over the last month or so. This is the front end of a home and home between the teams and I believe OKC is in an excellent position to sweep the two games. It starts w/ a win on TNT tonight! 10* Oklahoma City

10* Play on Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): So, as alluded to in the promo for this pick, two nights ago saw me win with a Missouri State team that had previously been pretty dreadful at the pay window this season. But that didn't stop them from going to Indiana State and winning outright, 72-57, in shockingly easy fashion. I'm not saying this dog is going to win that easy, or even win outright, but we're getting a really good value on Middle Tennessee due to their terrible 1-12 ATS record this season. That's the worst ATS record in the country right now. But tonight they're facing a Southern Miss team that's lost three in a row and getting double digits. I say take the points.

Not only has Middle Tennessee not been covering, they haven't been winning much either. Their last SU victory came back on November 16th against Charleston Southern, 76-73, a game they were favored to win by 9.5 points. Their only other two SU wins both came against non-DI competition. The Blue Raiders have taken on some tough competition over the last two months, facing the likes of Virginia, Butler, Vanderbilt, Murray State and Ole Miss. I won't bore you w/ the particulars, but it generally hasn't been a fun time. That said, conference play has opened w/ a pair of close losses, the first time they've started 0-2 in C-USA in over a decade. The Blue Raiders were actually favored their  last time out (vs. FAU) and led by seven points at halftime. So that's a step in the right direction. 

As bad as things have been for Middle Tennessee this year, I remain unconvinced that Southern Miss should be a DD fave in this spot, even in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles are coming off a brutal six-game road trip, which ended w/ three consecutive defeats. They've generally been competitive, even against the likes of Wichita State and Kansas State, but competitive "won't cut it" in this price range. Setting aside a couple wins against non-DI opponents, USM has not won many games by significant margins this season. They even lost to a non-DI team, William Carey, back on November 25th! It's an 0-5 ATS record for the Golden Eagles as chalk this season. 10* Play on Middle Tennessee 

10* Over Bulls/Blazers (10:05 ET): I tried w/ the Over in Portland's last game, but unfortunately they and the Knicks just couldn't "get there" falling a a bit short of the number. At first glance, a date w/ Chicago (who ranks last in the league in offensive efficiency) hardly seems to be the likely end of a now eight-game Under streak. But this number is not just low from Portland's perspective; it's also low for the Bulls too as they're giving up almost 110 PPG on the season. They've allowed more than that each of the L3 games and all of those were at home. Take the Over here. 

As I talked about in Monday's writeup on Blazers-Knicks, Portland certainly doesn't have much trouble scoring as they've now averaged 114.4 points over the last five games. This despite relatively pedestrian shooting, save for the blowout of Philadelphia back on December 30th. But they haven't been above 50% in any game since and a hot shooting night is probably forthcoming. The Bulls have allowed 50% shooting in each of their last three games. Three-point shooting is a specific area where Portland should improve moving forward. Note that before the game vs. NY, the Over had been 4-0 the L4 times the Blazers had faced a team w/ a losing SU record. 

So much for defensive improvement under HC Jim Boylan. The Bulls have allowed 112, 119 and 117 pts the last three games w/ those respective opponents all shooting better than 50% from the floor against them. I look for that trend to obviously continue tonight. On offense, the Bulls haven't been attempting enough threes under Boylan, but I look for that to start changing very soon. Zach LaVine is one of the NBA's top scorers at 23.9 PPG. Bottom line here is that it's time for Portland's Under streak to expire and this number is far too low. The average number of PPG scored in both teams' games YTD exceeds what the number is here. 10* Over Bulls/Blazers 

10* UC Riverside (10:00 ET): I don't understand the way this line is moving - at all. The home team (UC Riverside) is clearly the better side here, yet not even getting the "token" respect one deserves when playing in their own gym. Perhaps this is because Cal State Northridge comes in on a 5-0 ATS run. But the Matadors have dropped B2B games SU, losing by five at San Diego State, then by four at home to Yale. Those close calls may very well have taken something out of it the Matadors (especially the Yale game as it went to OT) heading into tonight's Big West opener where UC Riverside will be primed for a big performance. 

Recently, I took UC Riverside in a big spot and they delivered. It was here at home, December 22nd, against a Loyola Marymount team that had lost only one game all season. As nine-point dogs, the Highlanders delivered for me in a major way, winning outright 60-53. Then came one of the more brutal B2B road games I've seen any team have to play all season. Wrapping up 2018, they had to play at Air Force and Western Michigan in a three-day span. That's quite a bit of holiday travel and sure enough the Highlanders dropped both games. But upon returning home last week, they crushed Bethesda (non-DI school) 112-47 in a "tune up" for conference play. 

UC Riverside is 5-1 SU at home this season, allowing just 59 PPG. That's a far cry from the kind of defense Cal State Northridge plays as they're allowing 83.6 PPG this season (345th in the country!). Again, neither of these teams are going to be cutting down the nets in March, but I just don't see how you can make the case that the home team isn't the better side here and should be priced as such. Cal State Northridge is outside my top 300 for crying out loud, so expecting them to win on the road seems a bit foolish to me. If they end up closing as a road favorite here, it would mark the 1st time all season for them in that role. A key to this game could be the fact the visitors are terrible from the FT line, shooting at a 63% clip there. They're also below 30% from three-point range on the road while allowing opponents to shoot almost 40%. 10* UC Riverside

8* Memphis (8:05 ET): Talk about two teams that have experienced very different fortunes at the betting window recently. San Antonio has covered seven in a row as well as 14 of its last 16 games (also 13-3 SU over that same timeframe). Memphis, on the other hand, is a putrid 1-12 ATS its L13 games, also losing 11 of those straight up. Both streaks are something you don't see very often, thus this confluence has me thinking "regression to the mean" tonight as one is due not to cover and the other is long overdue to cash. Take the points here in what shapes up as a "trap game" for the Spurs. 

This is San Antonio's second road game in three nights. They won in Detroit Monday, 119-107, covering in a similar price range. Even w/ a six-game losing streak, I have the Grizzlies rated higher than the Pistons, so that's some value right off the bat here. It was not a good start to the game for the Spurs Monday night in the Motor City as they initially trailed by eight in the 1st quarter. But even w/ the win, their record record is still just 7-12 SU for the year and how well they defend has been a big issue when comparing home and road games. At home, San Antonio allows just 103.6 PPG. On the road, they're allowing 114.3. That's one of, if not THE, biggest home vs. road split in the league. 

Something I have yet to mention is these teams did just meet in San Antonio last weekend. True to the respective recent forms, the Spurs won and covered that game, winning 108-88 as 8.5-pt chalk. While the Spurs were able to win at Detroit in the middle of this home & home, the Grizzlies went and lost at New Orleans by 19 points. I realize that it doesn't sound too good for Memphis coming into this game, but they remain one of the top defensive teams in the league, ranking 2nd in points per game allowed (102.9). If they can get the offense going tonight, then they should be in great shape. I say they will. 8* Memphis 

8* Auburn (7:00 ET): #11 Auburn is set to begin its SEC schedule w/ a visit to Oxford to face an Ole Miss team that has been a covering machine this season. Obviously, this can be a tricky spot for Bruce Pearl's team seeing as Ole Miss has been the best ATS team in the country so far at 12-1. But it's a spot that I believe the Tigers are set up well to prevail. They're certainly well rested having yet to play a game in 2019. Conversely, Ole Miss had to play over the weekend, opening its SEC slate w/ a 10-pt road win over Vanderbilt. Auburn is one of the top teams in the country though and a great value on Wednesday's NCAAB card. Lay the points. 

I think people forget just how good this Auburn team is. They won the SEC last season. To me, they're a legit Top 10 team w/ an offense that ranks 9th in efficiency. They come in averaging 85.2 PPG on the year w/ four players averaging in double figures, led by senior Bryce Brown's 15.3 PPG. The last time they played was December 29th when they crushed North Florida 95-49 as 23-pt chalk. That's actually the ONLY game the Tigers have played in the L17 days. It ended a five-game ATS slide, but something to keep in mind is they were a DD favorite in the majority of those contests. For a team that was actually favored to win at NC State, this is a great value.

You've got to tip your cap to the job being done by HC Kermit Davis in his 1st year here at Ole Miss, but I can't help but feel the Rebels are a bit overrated coming into this game. They have won eight in a row, but none of the opponents were even close to the caliber of what awaits them tonight. The last time Ole Miss played a ranked team was November 24th and they lost to Cincinnati by double digits. They haven't lost since (8-0 SI/ATS), but I've got to come back to the fact that the Rebels were NOT expected to contend in the SEC this season. This is going to be a challenging week for them, first w/ this game, then a visit to rival Mississippi State over the weekend. Auburn won both meetings LY, including a nine-point win here in Oxford. Tonight will be a "reality check" for Ole Miss. 8* Auburn

8* New York (10:35 ET): I understand this is the type of bet that few want to make, but sometimes it's just better to "hold your nose" and take the points. Because a Golden State team that has proven to be far more vulnerable than they've been in past years is simply laying too many points tonight. I realize that the Knicks are not a good basketball team and they are playing in the second night of a back to back (lost 111-101 in Portland last night). But this is simply way too many points for the Warriors to be laying considering they're just 2-7 ATS the L9 games overall. Take the points. 

Now there's no sugarcoating the Knicks' difficulties. They have only two wins since December 1st and one of them was against the LeBron-less Lakers (last Friday). The only other win in the last 16 games came by two points, in overtime, against the Hornets. But as bad as things have been this yaer for the Knickerbockers, there have been only three losses in the 2-14 SU stretch that have come by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for here. Sure, they're playing Golden State tonight. But the Warriors should no longer be considered "head and shoulders" above the rest of the league. 

There have been two issues for Golden State this year. One was injuries, something that has largely been cleared up now. So given they're now healthier than they've been most of the season, what gives? Well, they have slipped rather dramatically on the defensive end of the floor. Over the last four years, many failed to appreciate how the Dubs were actually one of the top defensive teams in the league. This season, they've slipped to 15th in efficiency and are giving up more than 112 PPG. In their last game, they allowed Sacramento to shoot 20 of 36 from three-point range in what ended up as a record-setting display from behind the arc. The game before that, they failed to protect a 20-point second half lead vs. Houston. GSW actually enters this game on a three-game home losing streak. Just too many points to lay on a random Tuesday. 8* New York

8* San Diego State (10:00 ET): Wyoming is a team that I targeted early on (in the season) as a regular fade and quite frankly I should have continued to do so (fade them, that is) more. The Cowboys' record is now 4-11 SU, 3-11 ATS and two of those SU wins were of the two-point variety, one of them against non-DI school Dixie State. Now that I've hopefully established that the Pokes aren't a very good team, I'll let you know that they have little to no chance tonight at San Diego State. The Aztecs are looking to rebound from a bad loss at Boise State over the weekend and will be in an ornery mood. Lay the points. 

San Diego State lost by 24 up in Boise Saturday. It was their second bad loss in the last three games as they also went down in shocking fashion at home (by 19 points) to Brown the previous weekend. In between, they did beat Cal State Northridge, but failed to cover. I made the mistake of laying the points with them there, but off this loss I feel they're in better position to cover. Wyoming's power rating is still propped up by way too lofty preseason expectations that were clearly foolish. Even last year's 20-win team was just awful defensively (78.7 PPG allowed). Losing four of the top five scorers from that team was always going to be too much to overcome. 

San Diego State's is a "buy low" stock right now after two bad losses in the last 10 days. I was shocked to see how poorly the Aztecs played Saturday night in Boise. This is normally a very good defensive team. Luckily, this game is in their gym where they only allow 63.7 PPG on 38.9% shooting. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 16.5 PPG. This is what I call a "get well" game for the favorite as Wyoming is very bad and SDSU is much better than what they've shown recently. 8* San Diego State

10* Over T'Wolves/Thunder (8:05 ET): Minnesota just fired its HC (and team president) Tom Thibodeau, which I view as a bit of a curious decision as expectations are simply too high for this young team in the loaded Western Conference. The team had been better since dealing Jimmy Butler away and had even won B2B games, getting their YTD scoring differential into the black. T'Wolves star Karl Anthony Towns seemed stunned by the move as well. So I'm not sure this decision by ownership is going to have a positive impact on the team. 

Speaking of YTD point differentials, Oklahoma City has the top one in the Western Conference right now and has a real shot at finishing 1st. I think it's them, Golden State and Denver and entering play tonight, the trio is separated by just 1.5 games. Don't look for OKC to have any sympathy for Minnesota's plight as they are in off an embarrassing 116-98 loss (here at home!) to Washington Sunday night. That was a dismal offensive showing for the Thunder, who failed to score 100 pts for the first time in nearly a month. I look for a bounce back game on that end of the floor tonight as the T'wolves are not noted as a defensive team (allow 114.6 PPG on the road). 

Oklahoma City actually leads the league in defensive efficiency. Sunday night was just the fifth time they allowed more than 115 pts in a game this season. But they allowed 114 the last time they faced Minnesota, which was right before X-Mas. That game ended up being a two-point T'wolves win as both teams shot well (Minnesota was 14 of 27 from three-point range). Prior to holding the Lakers to 86 points (no LeBron) on Sunday, Minnesota had seen its L10 games all go Over the total. With Sunday marking one of Minnesota's best defensive showings of the year and one of OKC's worst offensively, it's only natural things slide back to the mean tonight. 10* Over T'wolves/Thunder 

8* Ball State (7:00 ET): Ball State is off quite the impressive win here as they went to Toledo on Saturday and easily ended the Rockets' 10-game win streak, doing so in 79-64 fashion (as 4.5-pt dogs). The Cardinals have now won and covered four in a row since suffering an outright loss to Evansville (a team they'd beaten earlier in the season) back on December 9th. They've won 9 of 10 overall since an early three-game stretch against power conference teams (Alabama, Purdue, Va Tech). They've yet to lose a game here in Muncie, winning by an average of 31.8 PPG! Sounds to me like they should roll against a bad Eastern Michigan squad Tuesday night. Lay the points. 

Do you remember the last time I faded Eastern Michigan? Maybe not as it was all the way back on November 19th. But I certainly do & it's a game Eagles' fans would just as soon forget. They set a NCAA record for offensive futility in a half, scoring just FOUR points before the break (yes, you read that correctly). They ended up losing 63-36 to Rutgers, one of the easiest bets I have ever made in my life. You would think that game would make the nadir of the season in Ypsilanti and perhaps it will be. But things have really gotten no better for EMU as they're now 1-9 ATS this season, including 0-7 as a dog. They have just two SU wins in the L9 games and both were against non-DI teams. The Eagles are 0-5 SU on the road, losing by an average of 24.2 PPG. 

Eastern Michigan's last "effort" was a 16-point home loss at Buffalo on Friday night. Before that, they lost by 24 at Kansas. Earlier in the analysis, I mentioned Ball State's tremendous MOV here in Muncie and that has a lot to do w/ them averaging 98.0 PPG at home. They are 6-2 ATS when favored this year and considering how bad Eastern Michigan has been on the road, this is really not that high of a pointspread. The Cardinals' last four wins have all been by double digits. This is also a team that went to Loyola IL (Final 4 team LY) and won last month. 8* Ball State

8* Missouri State (7:00 ET): For the lone underdog selection in this package, we turn to a Missouri State team that might be a little shorthanded (two reserves out), but is also also being undervalued. Like Eastern Michigan, the Bears are a team that struggles to win on the road. In fact, they have yet to do so in eight previous tries (1-5 ATS). Despite this, we're still looking at a team that has a positive point differential on the year (in all games). They're playing a team Tuesday (Indiana State) that they've had plenty of success against in the past. I'll take the points. 

Indiana State won over the weekend, but only by five over a bad Bradley team. That game was here in Terre Haute. Larry Bird (school's most famous alum) "ain't walking through that door" this year for the Sycamores, who are a respectable 9-5 SU, but most of their losses have come in blowout fashion. Before beating Bradley, they were destroyed by 35 at Loyola Chicago. In that game, Indiana State scored just *12* points in the first half. Things obviously went much better offensively vs. Bradley, but that was tied to the fact they attempted 47 free throws, twice the number as their opponents. It also helped Bradley was a miserable 3 of 20 from 3-pt range.

Missouri State is off a bad 82-66 loss at home to Valparaiso, a game that they were favored to win by 5.5 points. That result undoubtedly had an effect on the pointspread for this one as my numbers say these long-time Missouri Valley rivals would be close to even at a neutral setting. Missouri State played a terrible 1st half vs. Valpo, going into the break down 46-24. That was on the heels of losing a close one at Southern Illinois. I mentioned earlier that the Bears have had Indiana State's number the last couple years. They are 4-0 SU against them the L2 seasons including a 19-pt win here in Terre Haute last February. They'll at least stay within the number here. 8* Missouri State

10* Over Knicks/Blazers (10:05 ET): Portland has gone Under in every game since Christmas. That's a streak of seven straight (if you're counting at home) and the Under is 14-3 their L17 games overall. That's quite the streak of Unders right there. But I look for it to end on "Championship Monday" (if you already haven't done so, pick up my side/total on Bama-Clemson!) as they're playing a Knicks team that is very bad defensively. But an additional key here is I expect a rested Knicks squad to also play better than usual on the offensive end. Take the Over. 

Portland is a little better defensively at home than they are on the road (not uncommon in this league). But that will be offset here by the fact they also average more PPG at home (again, not uncommon). Total PPG in Blazers' home games isn't all that different from the road. They come into this game having not shot the ball particularly well any of the L3 games. Yet they've still scored at least 109 pts in each, including 110 in an impressive win over the Rockets Saturday night.  For the year, they average 113.6 PPG at home on better than 46% shooting from the field.

I look for the Blazers to have a break out offensive game here against a Knicks team that simply cannot defend. New York ranks 29th in the league in defensive efficiency and gives up 117.0 PPG on the road. When you look back and see that they just beat the Lakers on Friday (snapping an 8-game losing streak), 119-112, take note LA played that game w/o the services of LeBron James, Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo. Against some evidence to the contrary, I do expect NY to shoot well in this game. They're only at 38.6% from the field the L5 games, which is a really low number that is due to go up. Being rested is huge as the Knicks are 7-1 Over this season when playing on exactly two days rest. They are also 9-2 Over against the Western Conference this year. The Over is 3-0 their L3 games and when these teams met in MSG back in November, it was a 118-114 final (in favor of Portland). 10* Over Knicks/Blazers 

10* Wisconsin (7:30 ET): There's never a good time to lose your coach (more on that in a moment), but for Penn State today is most inopportune as they'll be facing an angry Wisconsin team that is coming in off B2B losses. Nittany Lions HC Pat Chambers will not be on the bench here as he is suspended for shoving freshman Myles Dread in a heated altercation during the team's 68-55 loss at Michigan Thursday. It has already been a disappointing season in Happy Valley w/ Penn State starting just 7-7 SU overall, including an 0-3 mark in Big 10 play. I'm shocked they are listed in the pick 'em range here. 

Both of Wisconsin's recent losses came as favorites. The more shocking of the two was two Saturdays ago at Western Kentucky. But, for what it's worth, that was a road game and WKU had already beaten one ranked team this year in Bowling Green (West Virginia). The Badgers allowed 67.8% shooting in the second half of the game, which pretty much means you'll lose to anybody. Then, on Thursday, they couldn't buy a bucket in Madison as they lost 59-52 to Minnesota. That game saw them score only 14 pts in the 1st half and they killed themselves at the FT line where they finished the game just 7 of 17.

As they showed vs. Minnesota, the defensive issues that cost Wisconsin against WKU are certainly correctable. This is still a top 20 team nationally in defensive efficiency, mind you. So is Penn State, but their defense is likely to suffer in a game where they're playing w/o their head coach. The Badgers won here LY, holding the Nittany Lions to 35% shooting, including 2 of 14 from three-point range. I would have made them around a three-point favorite here even if Chambers was coaching this game for PSU. But he's not and I look for the Nittany Lions to drop to 0-4 ATS in conference play this season. Penn State has been pretty dreadful on offense this season, shooting below 40% in Big 10 play and just 32.1% for the year from three-point range. 10* Wisconsin

10* Under Heat/Hawks (6:05 ET): Even though they were double digit dogs, Atlanta was a pretty easy target for me Friday night in Milwaukee as that particularly matchup would certainly qualify as one of the biggest mismatches in the entire league right now. Sure enough, it was every bit the mismatch I thought it would be, if not even more so. The Hawks were completely buried, losing 144-112 as the Bucks shot 55.0% for the game and had two 40+ pt quarters. It was a 43-14 game at the end of the 1Q and was never close from there. Tonight, Atlanta is at least back home where they'll host division rival Miami, another team that has been playing quite well of late.

The Heat have won 8 of 10 w/ one of the two losses coming by a single bucket vs. Toronto. The team's latest win came Friday against the Wizards (no John Wall, remember) 115-109. It was the sixth straight Miami game to go Over the total. In the last five, they are averaging 111.6 PPG, which is well above their YTD average of 107.2. They've also shot a blistering 49% from the field, which is well above their season average of 43.9% (one of the lowest FG%'s in the league). So the Heat are due to "cool off" (pun intended!) and while I know it's hard to say that it will come here, given what the Bucks just did to the Hawks, I think regression to the mean offensively is all but inevitable for Miami. 

These teams have met twice before this year and both games did go Over. But in those two games, it was Atlanta that shot surprisingly well and thus they have won both games. I don't look for the Hawks to be that prolific tonight as they too rank near the bottom of the league in field goal percentage and they are also 29th in the league in offensive efficiency. Interesting about Miami's recent rash of Overs is they have actually held half of the opponents to 94 pts or fewer! Every O/U line has been significantly lower than the one here w/ five of them at 207 pts or lower. We've got plenty of "wiggle room" here as only the last game (vs. the Wizards) would have gone Over this total. 10* Under Heat/Hawks

8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): FSU is a team I won w/ earlier in the week as they went to San Jose State and blew out the Spartans 73-53 as 14.5-point favorites. As I mentioned in that analysis, the Bulldogs were coming off a very embarrassing loss to Utah Valley State (were 10-pt home favorites) as they shot a dreadful 34% from the field. As expected, they bounced back in a major way against one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They wasted little time in gaining an early lead as they shot better than 60% from the floor in the 1st half and took a 22-pt lead into the break. From there, it was smooth sailing. I believe Fresno State is likely to consider its mastery of the Mountain West tonight as they're back at home. Lay the points.

Colorado State might be a little stronger than San Jose State, but they still should not present much of a challenge to FSU. The Rams come into this game having dropped eight of nine, including four straight. Their lone win during that stretch came at the expense of Sam Houston State. The last four losses have been a particularly brutal streak for CSU as three of the defeats have been by five points or less. But even w/ those close calls, I don't expect them to compete here as Fresno State is a much tougher opponent than what the Rams have faced recently. Last year, they came to this building and lost by 21 when priced similarly by the oddsmakers. 

Fresno State is putting together an impressive season at 10-3 SU. The loss to Utah Valley State right before the New Year is the only time they've been beaten at home. Their other two losses were to Miami and TCU, both by single digits. All but one of their wins have come by double digits and at home they're winning by an average of 17.3 PPG. Offensively, they have been very sharp, averaging nearly 80 PPG. Colorado State has been a sieve defensively, giving up almost 80 PPG. This is a second road game in four nights for the Rams and they may very well be spent after taking another close loss at UNLV Wednesday (blew 10-pt second half lead). They are ripe for the "pickin'" here. 8* Fresno State 

10* Over UTSA/UTEP (9:00 ET): In a bit of a weird scheduling quirk, these teams are playing each other in B2B games. As the underdog, I thought UTEP was a solid value Thursday night on the road. I was wrong. The Miners lost 75-60 (even though they'd been bet down all day) on what was an absolutely dreadful shooting night for them (34.0 FG%). Here at home, I'm obviously expecting a much better offensive performance. But what really sticks out to me here is the total. These teams have gone Under against one another the last 10 times they've played! I think that streak comes to an end tonight. Take the Over. 

Not only do these C-USA rivals have a history of going Under against each other, both have primarily been Under teams all season. UTSA has gone Under in 8 of its 10 lined games this year and UTEP isn't far behind at 7-2 Under. In fact, 21 of the Miners' last 30 home games have stayed Under. Since December 1st, UTSA has played in four games where the oddsmakers posted an O/U line. All four stayed Under. UTEP is 4-0 Under its last four games as well. This is highly irregular, obviously. Note that despite the terrible shooting by the Miners Thursday, the game still nearly went Over, only falling short by seven points. 

UTSA hardly shot the ball well two nights ago as they finished the game barely above 40.0% from the field. So they too are likely due for an "uptick" offensively in this quick rematch. They're also due for a downswing defensively. Before allowing just 50, 67 and 60 pts the L3 games (all wins), the Roadrunners were routinely giving up 74+ points. This total is low for them as many of their previous O/U lines this season were north of 150 points. They are averaging almost 75 points per game while giving up nearly 74 PPG. The simple laws of regression (to the mean) tell me that we are in store for an Over in El Paso tonight! 10* Over UTSA/UTEP

10* Over Jazz/Pistons (7:05 ET): It wasn't necessarily easy for Utah last night (trailed Cleveland at the half), but a strong second half propelled them to a 117-91 win and cover. Still a game under .500 for the year, they desperately need to keep winning as the Western Conference is as loaded as ever this year. One thing that does speak well for their future is that they own the West's fifth best YTD point differential. As I've said many times before, point differential is typically a far better predictor of future outcomes than is a team's actual win-loss record. I do expect the Jazz to start making a move up the standings. 

But with tonight being the second game of a back to back, I'm not quite as optimistic on the Jazz's chances in the Motor City. The total does look awfully low, however, and that has me thinking Over. Taking advantage of the league's worst defensive team (Cavs) last night, Utah shot 51% from the floor and scored 117 points. But that point total has not been atypical of late. It was the 4th time in the last 5 games that Utah scored at least 116. The Pistons team it will be facing tonight has had defensive issues of its own of late. On a recently completed four-game road trip, they allowed two opponents to shoot 60% from the field!

The Pistons were able to avoid a winless trip by winning a low-scoring game at Memphis Wednesday night, 101-94. Detroit is not the prettiest shooting team in the league by any means as Wednesday marked the sixth time in the last seven games that they posted a FG% below 44.0. But perhaps they'll break out here against a Utah team that does often struggle to defend on the road (FG% allowed of 46.5). When looking at each team's season scoring average, in terms of points scored and allowed, both are in excess of tonight's total. An "average" game thus should land us Over the total and I think we'll get more than average here tonight. 10* Over Jazz/Pistons

8* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): In looking at this matchup, I was pretty shocked to learn that the Thunder are just 1-7 SU/ATS the L8 meetings, including an 0-4 SU/ATS mark here in Portland. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me considering the two teams have been relative equals during that stretch. Is there something that the Blazers specifically do that gives OKC trouble? I don't think so. It should be pointed out that virtually all of the games have been close w/ Portland winning four times by five points or less. One thing that I do know is that the Thunder are certainly the better team this season. They lead the league in defensive efficiency & are tops in the Western Conference in point differential. Tonight, I look for them to break their losing streak here in the Pacific Northwest.

OKC comes in having won 7 of 10 w/ the three losses coming by a total of eight points. On Wednesday, they downed the LeBron-less Lakers 107-100 as 5.5-pt road chalk, led by Paul George's 37 points. That game also saw PG Russell Westbrook set a dubious honor w/ the worst shooting percentage in a game (3 for 20) by an individual player that finished w/ a triple double. Westbrook has been struggling w/ his shooting for awhile now, but it has hardly mattered as George is averaging 33.0 points the L10 games. Eventually, Westbrook (the NBA's assist leader) is going to get his shot back. As mentioned above, one area that the Thunder aren't having much difficulty in is defense as they are the ONLY team in the league currently NOT allowing a full point per possession. 

Portland, like OKC, is in off B2B wins and won 7 of its last 10 overall. I actually took them on New Year's Day in a 113-108 overtime win in Sacramento. That game saw the Blazers blow a 14-point halftime lead and need to rally late just to force OT. Virtually all of Portland's recent wins, save for one over Philadelphia who was w/o Joel Embiid, have been close. The other six have all come by seven points or less and by 26 pts total. Coupled w/ the recent history against the Thunder and I'd saw the Blazers are "due" to drop a close one tonight. Oddsmakers are somewhat "tipping their hand" here in thinking OKC is the better team and I concur. 8* Oklahoma City

10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): The Bucks have had a favorable schedule recently and taken full advantage, winning four straight in blowout fashion (also going 4-0 ATS despite being DD favorites in every game). They've played the Knicks twice, Brooklyn and Detroit during that stretch, the last three coming here at home and every win has been by at least 14 points. As easy as that stretch sounds, tonight things look to be even easier w/ the lowly Hawks paying a visit. The Bucks now own the best win percentage (.722) and top point differential (+9.3 per game) in the league. They should roll again tonight. Lay the points. 

Atlanta is actually now ahead of three teams in the East, but that only speaks to how bad the bottom of the Conference really is this year. They'd won five of six entering New Year's Eve, but have since fallen back into their "old ways," losing the first two games of this three-game road trip that ends tonight. They lost by eight in Indiana, then by 16 in Washington (who is w/o John Wall). That last loss certainly isn't a good sign for tonight as the difference between the Wizards and Bucks is quite severe. The Hawks were outscored 26-14 in the 4Q in D.C. and now face a much better defensive team. Getting held under 100 pts by one of the worst defensive teams in the league is a bad sign as Milwaukee is top three in defensive efficiency.

The Bucks have dominated at home this year, going 17-3 SU and winning by an average of 13.8 PPG. Most of the teams they face are better than Atlanta, so I see no reason why they can't win by a margin greater than that YTD average. The Hawks are 5-16 SU on the road and give up 117.4 PPG. Not only is Milwaukee top three in the league in defensive efficiency, they also are #1 in scoring as 1st year HC Mike Budenholzer has transformed this team into an elite 3-pt shooting group. This is Budenholzer's first chance to face his former team and I suspect his current crop of players will look to make a statement on his behalf. This is about as big a mismatch as you'll find in this league as the Hawks are 29th in offensive efficiency. 10* Milwaukee

8* Denver (10:05 ET): As I said Tuesday (when I also played against them), I'm simply not a buyer on the Kings, who have surprisingly stayed in playoff contention in a loaded Western Conference. Before the season, it was them and the Suns that were expected to be at the bottom of the Western Conference. Phoenix certainly lived up to its "advanced billing," but Sacramento is somehow a game above .500 as we approach the halfway mark of the season, which is something no one saw coming. But there are some signs that this isn't going to last, namely the fact they give up the most points per game in the Western Conference. Also, despite being a game over .500, they've been outscored by 1.7 PPG, which is the second worst differential in the West. 

Denver is at the top of the Western Conference right now, one-half game ahead of Golden State, which is a pretty remarkable achievement considering all the injuries they had to deal w/ in the Rocky Mountain city. They are now getting healthier w/ both Gary Harris Jr and Paul Millsap returning to the lineup. Harris, normally a starter, came off the bench in his return Tuesday and scored 6 pts in 20 mins. Millsap had 16 pts in the team's 115-108 win over the Knicks Tuesday, second only to Nikola Jokic's 20. The Nuggets have failed to cover five straight games, but this looks to be a tremendous value on the clearly superior side. 

Sacramento is the team now dealing with problems on the injury front as they are w/o rookie Marvin Bagley III. The OT loss to Portland (here at home) Tuesday night dropped the Kings to 4-5 SU w/o Bagley. Not having him tonight will make defending Jokic difficult and as noted earlier this is a team that already has its issues defending. Despite blowing a second half lead against Portland and losing in OT, note the Kings were actually down 14 at the half in that game. This is an even tougher opponent that they're facing tonight, one that has won seven of its last nine games overall and beat the Kings by double digits back in October. 8* Denver 

8* UTEP (8:00 ET): I don't see any real difference between these foes coming into the C-USA opener, thus I'll be taking what certainly appears to be an inflated number. Both UTEP and UTSA enter this game at a game below .500, though the host Roadrunners have played two more games. UTSA has won three in a row, but all were against clearly inferior opponents (two games not even lined). UTEP has been the better bet at the window this year as they've covered six of their last seven games, including a 76-65 win over Wyoming back on 12.22. They've been off ever since and come into this game w/ legit triple revenge for a trio of losses suffered to UTSA last season. 

Maybe it's the fact that UTEP hasn't won on the road yet that has the oddsmakers "down" on them here. But it's not as if the Miners haven't played a challenging set of road games thus far. They've visited New Mexico State, Arizona, New Mexico and Marquette. They covered the last two times on the road, including losing to Marquette by only seven. It was 12 days ago that the Miners last played, winning the 3rd place game in the Sun Belt Invitational over Wyoming. The only other time in this season they've played w/ this much rest was when they ended up beating Cal Riverside by double digits back on 12.16. The Miners have played only three games in the L30 days, so they should be extremely well-rested coming into tonight's conference opener.

The triple revenge angle is huge here as two of the three losses UTEP suffered to UTSA last year were by four points. Then, on an awful shooting night, they lost to them again in the C-USA Tournament. But I'm just "not seeing it" w/ this UTSA team right now as three of their six wins have come against non-DI opponents and their "best" win was against a Texas A&M-Corpus Christi team that I wouldn't even consider among the top 275 teams in the country. The Roadrunners boast only two double-digit scorers and shoot just 31.8% from three-point range. Though 2-0 ATS as chalk YTD, they are simply not trustworthy in this price range. Take the points. 8* UTEP

8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): This lines up as a colossal mismatch on the Wednesday card. Fresno State is one of several teams across the country that recently suffered a rather head-scratching loss. Theirs came at home Saturday against Utah Valley State. FSU was a 10-point home favorite, but lost 64-60 as they shot a dreadful 34.0% from the field. That snapped a seven-game win streak and was a "far cry" from what we usually see from this Bulldogs team on the offensive end as they still average over 80 PPG for the year. This is only their second "true" road game of the year, but I had them in the 1st and they covered there (at TCU). Lay the points this time. 

San Jose State is very bad. I count them outside the top 300 teams in the country. Now the Spartans are coming off a difficult three-game road trek where they had to play two Pac 12 teams (Stanford, Cal), then St. Mary's. In the finale, they were blown out by 30 and scored a season-low 45 points. This is a team w/ only three wins this year. One was against Life Pacific (an actual team, not a life insurance company!) and the other two were by a total of seven points against Bethune-Cookman and Northern Arizona, two other very bad teams. Among schools w/ both a D-I football and basketball program, SJSU may have the weakest athletic department in the country. The school's football program is among the worst in the country and so is the basketball team.

San Jose State won just a single game in conference play last season (by two points!), going 1-17 SU against the rest of the Mountain West. They were 4-26 SU overall. They have now lost 35 of their last 41 games. Fresno State beat them twice last season, by nearly identical scores - 77-59 at home and 77-57 on the road. It was a simple case of an "off-shooting night" for FSU against Utah Valley State as their percentages were down across the board. Look for them to bounce back in a major way in this Mt. West Conference opener. 8* Fresno State  

8* Under T'Wolves/Celtics (8:05 ET): Minnesota has gone Over in eight straight games. Boston has gone Over in six straight. Those respective streaks have conspired to get this total far higher than it ought to be and I'm going Under on this Wednesday night ESPN matchup. Boston remains one of the top defensive teams in the league, ranking 4th in efficiency. Minnesota is a team that was 12-2 Under in the month of November. So December may have simply been a case of "regression to the mean" for them. These teams played almost exactly one month ago (12.1) and a hot shooting night from Boston resulted in a 118-109 final, which went Over the total of 216. But tonight, they'll be w/o leading scorer Kyrie Irving due to an eye injury suffered in Monday's loss to San Antonio.

In last month's win at Minnesota, the Celtics shot 47.1% overall from the field, including 17 of 44 from three-point range, and they went a perfect 21 of 21 at the free throw line. Those percentages are simply unlikely to be matched here, especially w/o Irving. Gordan Hayward also tossed in a season-high 30 points in the Twin Cities. Irving had 21 pts and 9 assists, production that won't be easy to make up. Monday night in San Antonio, the game seemed well on its way to an easy Under before Boston had an uncharacteristic defensive breakdown, allowing 46 pts in the third quarter, including 21 in a three-minute stretch. San Antonio made 14 of the 26 three-pointers it attempted in the game. Again, that's simply not emblematic of the kind of defense the Celtics usually play. 

Boston is attempting more threes themselves this year, but that's tied to Irving and the number they had (44) the last time they faced Minnesota was definitely on the "high side." Minnesota is toward the bottom of the league in 3PA and is thin right now in the backcourt w/ both Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague injured. The Under is 13-6 this year when the T'wolves face a team that has a winning record. 8* Under T'wolves/Celtics

10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): What in the world has happened in Cedar Falls? Northern Iowa, a once proud program, has fallen on some really hard times the last couple seasons including a 5-8 SU start this year. The Panthers have been even more dreadful against the pointspread, owning a 1-10 ATS mark this year. That shows the oddsmakers have been a little slow in keeping up w/ the program's overall regression. But here they've overadjusted as UNI is set to face a middling Bradley team that's been pretty overrated all season. The Braves have proven to be a poor bet in the role of favorite, so I'm taking the points here in the Missouri Valley Conference opener for both. 

Over the L6 games, Bradley has lost outright THREE different times as a favorite. Two of those were here at home as both New Mexico (+7.5) and Eastern Illinois (+13) came to Normal and pulled upsets. The Braves have not played since 12/22 when they barely escaped SE Louisiana, winning by only three as 13-point favorites. On a poor shooting night overall (34.0 FG%), Bradley made a three-pointer in the final seconds to notch the SU win. Their last four games have all been decided by seven points or less. I just think it would be a mistake to expect this team to win by any kind of margin, especially against a conference foe following a long layoff. The Braves are just 1-5 ATS in home games this season. 

Northern Iowa's only ATS win this year came back on 11/19 against Old Dominion (favorite to win the Colonial), a 54-53 upset as 2.5-pt dogs. In a weird scheduling spot, the Panthers then had to face the Monarchs again four days later (on the road) and lost by seven, starting the current 7-game ATS slide. Last Saturday, UNI lost at home to Stony Brook as 1.5-pt chalk, 73-63. Stony Brook isn't a bad team mind you (set school record w/ 12 non-conf wins this Year). As ugly as things have gotten for the Panthers at the betting window this year, I have to believe they're being undervalued in this spot. 10* Northern Iowa

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): These teams just met last week in Miami. The Heat won 118-94, as 10.5-pt favorites, so as you can see the oddsmakers have adjusted their ratings a bit for the rematch. But I'm not convinced that the Heat will enjoy the same advantages here as they did down on South Beach last week. For starters, will they shoot 52.7% from the field again while holding the Cavs to 38.3%? Seems questionable. While 9-5 SU in December, Miami isn't a particularly good shooting team (just 43.6% overall) and they are playing w/o Goran Dragic. Sunday's home loss to the T'wolves meant this team still hasn't been above .500 since starting the year 3-2. 

Cleveland certainly has its issues (30th in defensive efficiency, injuries), but five of their eight wins this year have come at home. They've been off since Saturday when they lost down in Atlanta by only three points. Obviously, the Hawks aren't a good team, but at least the Cavs (just barely) covered as 3.5-point pups. It was also the second night of a back to back as they were fresh off losing in Miami. That game saw Cleveland come out red hot (shot 58% in the 1st quarter) only to fall apart the rest of the way. One player to watch here is Collin Sexton, the Cavs' leading scorer, who had only eight points (shot 2 of 10) last week in Miami. I expect him to be a lot more prolific tonight. 

The Heat are certainly better than the Cavaliers, but I'm not sure if they're THIS much better (i.e. what the oddsmakers are calling for) on the road. They've gotten to seventh place in weak Eastern Conference, but have barely outscored their opponents this year while posting a negative efficiency rating. In terms of true shooting percentage, they are right near the bottom of the league. We do not see them as a road favorite very often (only 5x previously this year) and certainly not one of this size. Losers of six straight and w/ the worst SU record in the league right now, I think Cleveland is going to be motivate here. Take the points. 10* Cleveland

8* Portland (9:05 ET): Sacramento is somehow still in playoff contention, something I wouldn't have thought possible prior to the start of the season. But despite being two games over .500, the Kings have been outscored by the second worst margin in the entire Western Conference (only Phoenix worse obviously). One of the main reasons that I do NOT see them maintaining their winning record is a lack of defense. The Kings rank dead last in the West in points allowed (116.8 PPG) and they've allowed more than 120 per game over their last four contests.

Portland has had a bit of an "up and down" campaign, but is five games over .500 and tied w/ the Lakers for 6th in the West. They are just one-half game back of 4th as well. The team is certainly coming off one of its better moments of the season, that being a 129-95 beatdown of Philadelphia Saturday night. They shot a scorching 59.0% from the field, including 12 of 22 from three-point range. They did so while at the same time holding the 76ers to just 35.4% overall shooting and 8 of 43 (18.6%!) from three-point ranger. Going into the fourth quarter, the Blazers were up by 39 points.

This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams. Though they may not match the numbers from the Philadelphia game, I still expect Portland to score in bunches tonight. Also, as a favorite this season, the Blazers have won (straight up) 14 out of 19 times. I think this is an outstanding value on a superior side. You should expect the Kings to continue to tumble down the standings and by season's end I would not be surprised if the only thing keeping them out of the conference basement is Phoenix. In games where the O/U is 230 points or higher, Sacramento is just 4-10 SU this season. 8* Portland

10* Utah (7:05 ET): Though they're below .500, the 18-19 Jazz are a team that continues to get respect from oddsmakers. As they should. Note they've not only outscored opponents this season, they've done so by roughly the same margin as the 21-16 Lakers. This was a team projected to finish near the top of the Western Conference standings (prior to the start of the year), so right now I feel that the remain in an excellent "buy low" situation. With tonight's opponent still w/o two of its best players (Lowry, Valanciunas), this is a great game-specific spot to take the Jazz plus the points. 

Toronto has enjoyed a tremendous first half to the season. They're 27-11 SU and battling Milwaukee for 1st place in the Eastern Conference. But, partly due to the injuries, the Raptors have covered only 1 of their last 8 games (1-6-1 ATS). The last two have been particularly ugly w/ a 116-87 loss at Orlando (worst loss of the season) and only beating Chicago 95-89. Lowry has played just one game since 12.12 and Valanciunas is out for a couple more weeks. Without the duo, the Raptors have actually suffered their two worst losses of the year over the L10 days (also lost by 25 @ Philly).

When evaluating Utah's record, it's important to make note that they've played the toughest schedule in the league and 21 of their 37 games have been on the road. Their next four games will all be on the road, against Eastern Conference foes, including a trip to Milwaukee. But note they come into the trip on a positive note having just blown out the Knicks by 32 on Saturday night. I had the Over and Utah turned in one of its best offensive showings of the year, led by Rudy Gobert's 25 pts and 16 rebounds. The Jazz have revenge here for a 13-point loss at home last month. They are 5-1 ATS when seeking to revenge a home defeat this season. 10* Utah 

10* San Diego State (3:00 ET): The Aztecs are off an absolutely shocking loss to Brown on Saturday. It's not just THAT they lost, it's HOW. They fell 82-61 as 11-pt favorites, getting victimized by a barrage of three-pointers from the Ivy League contingent. The 1st half in particular was as shocking as any box score you'll see all season w/ Brown going into the break w/ a 50-22 advantage. The Bears shot only nine free throws for the game, but went 15 of 28 from three-point range and shot 53.4% overall. That was a far cry from SDSU's shooting as they went just 35.2% overall from the field, including 5 of 17 from behind the arc. I expect a massive bounce back on New Year's Day. Lay the points. 

What made that loss to Brown all the more shocking is that it simply was not in line w/ the Aztecs' season performance at all. Even after the disaster Saturday, visitors are still shooting just 29.2% from three-point range here, for the season. The Aztecs allow just 64.3 PPG at home. Also, as impressive as those defensive numbers are, the Aztecs also rank 53rd in the country in offensive efficiency. They average 82.4 PPG at home. 

Perhaps SDSU could be tested defensively here by a CS Northridge squad that averages almost 80 PPG itself. But there's a reason that the Matadors lost 8 of their first 10 games vs. D-I opponents this season. They can't stop anybody. They are allowing a frightening 84.2 PPG and predictably that number goes up even further when they're on the road as home teams are hitting over 40% against them from three-point range. The Matadors have managed to win three straight (also 3-0 ATS), including a 94-86 home win over Morgan State on Saturday. But they are just 8-20 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. This should be a big bounce back game for the home favorite. 10* San Diego State

10* Under Celtics/Spurs (7:05 ET): Two defensive-minded teams meet in a game that is sadly buried on New Year's Eve. Things weren't always looking rosy for the Spurs at the defensive end. They started this season by posting some of their worst numbers on that end of the floor in the Gregg Popovich era. But they've certainly turned things around this month. At one point, they held seven straight opponents under 100 pts. They went nine straight holding teams to a FG% of 43.5 or lower. As a result, they are now just 1.5 games out of 4th place in the Western Conference.

Despite the Over being 5-0 in the last five games and 8-1 their last nine, Boston is #3 in the league in defensive efficiency. In terms of net efficiency rating, they aren't all that far off from the top two teams in the East, Toronto and Milwaukee. So even though the Celtics are currently in 5th place in the East, expect them to start moving up the standings shortly. They've won three of four coming into tonight, including a nice come from behind effort against Memphis on Saturday where Kyrie Irving led the way w/ 26 points and 13 assists. They held the Grizzlies to just 16 pts in the 4Q.

The rash of recent Overs for the Celtics seems atypical and is likely to reverse itself. Meanwhile, the Spurs have gone Under in 8 of their last 11 games. With all five starters scoring in double figures, led by LaMarcus Aldridge's season-high 38 points, the Spurs scored 122 on the Clippers Saturday night. I would not look for such an offensive performance to be repeated tonight. Lucky for them, they are allowing only 103.9 PPG at home, a huge improvement over the 114.7 PPG they allow on the road. These teams have gone Over the L4 times they've played, but the totals were far lower, including a pair of sub-200 pt lines LY. 10* Under Celtics/Spurs 

8* Orlando (6:05 ET): Divisions are fairly meaningless in the NBA, but it's worth noting that the Southeast doesn't have a single team w/ a winning record. Yet, because the Eastern Conference is so weak, we could see as many as two teams make the playoffs (at least one will). Charlotte seems to be the division's best right now, but that's mostly faint praise as their penchant for losing close games continues to be an absolute killer. Saturday, they lost by four at Washington, who was without John Wall (out for season). That setback doesn't even add to the fact the Hornets are a ghastly 4-22 SU in games decided by three points or less the last 3 seasons. Maybe they start winning some of those moving forward? Regardless, I don't see them winning big tonight. 

Orlando has had its troubles with Charlotte the last few seasons. They are 0-9 SU against them the L3 seasons and 1-8 ATS. This includes a humiliating 32-point loss at home back in October. I'm sure the Magic players remember that one and will be out for revenge here. While December has not been the best month for the Magic, they are at least ending it in strong fashion. Friday night, they blew out the Raptors 116-87. Last night, they edged the Pistons 109-107. Both wins were at home, but let's note the fact Orlando is 9-4 ATS on the road this season and 15-9 ATS as an underdog. Statistically, they've actually been a better team on the road this year and they're 8-3-1 ATS as a road dog. 

Charlotte has given up 130+ points in two of its last three games. While one of those (134-132 loss at Brooklyn) went to overtime, the number of points allowed certainly doesn't bode well for the Hornets as a mid-size favorite. Especially since they just lost to a Wizards team w/o Wall despite Kemba Walker scoring 47 points. Orlando is being undervalued here b/c of the back to back, but it's not like they've played poorly in this scenario previously (2-0-1 ATS on the road). The key for them here is getting to 100 pts, something they should easily do against a Charlotte team that's giving up 111.4 PPG. The Magic are 12-7 SU this year when topping 100 pts. Defensively, the Magic are 7th in the league, allowing just 107.0 PPG. They held Detroit to just 48 pts in the 2H last night. Take the points. 8* Orlando

8* Pennsylvania (1:00 ET): Penn suffered a bad loss its last time out, 77-45 at Toledo. But that's nothing compared to the kind of SEASON Monmouth is having. The Hawks are on the verge of a winless 2018, having started 0-12. While a few of the losses have been close, generally speaking, the Hawks have been getting blown out with great regularity. This fall from grace has been quite ugly for the team from New Jersey and I'm not sure there's any immediate end in sight, not until MAAC play starts, at least. With Penn at home and antsy to atone for a bad loss, I see them rolling this afternoon. Lay the points.

Monmouth is one of only two teams in the country that is still winless. The other is perennial bottom-feeder Coppin State. To say that it's surprising to find the Hawks this low on the totem pole would be an understatement. They won the MAAC B2B years in 2015-16 and 2016-17 and the upperclassmen have been to the NCAA Tournament before. But after last season's disappointing finish (11-20 SU), the Hawks' best player (Micah Seaborn) decided to declare for the NBA Draft. He wasn't even picked, so it was kind of a lose-lose situation all around. Now there are reports that Monmouth HC King Rice and four reserves are able to beat the starters in scrimmages. The Hawks' confidence is clearly shot right now and I don't see them getting things fixed today. 

The Toledo team that blew out Penn is no slouch. While you never want to lose by 32, the Rockets are 12-1 SU this year. It was also a road game for Penn where they were underdogs. As a favorite, the team is a perfect 6-0 ATS. They are 5-0 SU at home. Remember, the Quakers upset defending National Champ Villanova earlier this month (I was on 'em!). They also won at New Mexico and upset Miami FL. This despite losing all-conference player Ryan Betley early in the season. This is a good team and with the blowout loss still fresh in its collective mind (happened Saturday), I fully anticipate the Quakers to roll here. They've been undervalued most of the year. A real key here is that Penn is 31st in the country in effective field goal percentage (they shoot 55.6% from the field at home!) and Monmouth is one of the worst defensive teams in the country right now at 329th in effective FG% allowed. 8* Pennsylvania 

8* Towson State (4:00 ET): Both of these teams opened Colonial play w/ a win on Friday. Towson went to Elon and beat the Phoenix 77-60 as a one-point favorite. William & Mary was here at home hosting James Madison and won by only five, 79-74, as seven-point chalk. I realize that Towson isn't exactly being picked to finish at the top of the CAA standings this year, but I also believe they are deserving of a bit more respect than they are getting here against a middling William & Mary team. The Tigers beat the Tribe both times in the regular season LY before getting ousted by them in the conference tournament. Take the points. 

Towson actually did trail Elon by nine early in the second half before storming back and winning comfortably. Over an 11-minute stretch, they outscored the Phoenix 34-8. It was a 53-point second half, led by an 8 for 12 performance from three-point range. Will they shoot that well again? The inclination is to say "no," but William & Mary is also giving up 80 PPG on the season, so the Tigers should score plenty this afternoon. Each of Towson's last four losses have been by six points or less, so they've been competitive. Last year, they came here to Williamsburg and blew out W&M 99-73 (as three-point dogs). In fact, the Tigers hung 90+ on W&M in both regular season matchups LY.

It was also not easy for William & Mary their last time out as they erased a double digit deficit in a come from behind effort against James Madison. It was the third third this season that the Tribe won a game in which they trailed by double digits. That hardly sounds like a sustainable blueprint to me. Had they not erased a 20-point deficit against St. Joe's back on 11.24 (won 87-85), then the Tribe would have been 1-8 SU to start the season. They've won three of their last four, but have yet to beat a D-I opponent this year by more than 10 points. Three of their five wins have come by five points or less. 8* Towson State

10* Appalachian State (3:00 ET): The Mountaineers come into St. Louis as pretty heavy underdogs, but I'm not exactly sure why that is. They've been more than competitive in their losses so far this year, save for a neutral court game against a good Purdue team. Other than that, ASU hasn't been beaten by more than 10 pts in any game this season! They've been off for 10 days since a confidence-building win over Milligan, a non-board team they destroyed by a score of 99-60. They're facing an opponent this afternoon that doesn't score much, so points are at premium. That makes taking the points sound like the right move to me. 

St. Louis is a really good defensive team (22nd in the country in efficiency), but that's about all the Billikens have going for them. They were humiliated their last time out, losing 81-59 at Florida State. That marked a season-high in points allowed They do own a two-point win at Seton Hall earlier in the year, but have dropped every road game since and are just 4-4 SU overall. This isn't a team I'd want to lay double digits with, given they average only 66.7 PPG on the season. Only once in the last six games have they topped that average. Sure enough, the Billikens are just 1-6 ATS as favorites this season, including 0-4 when laying 12 or more points here at home. 

These teams play at very different tempos. App State comes in averaging 85.4 PPG (13th in the country). While they also give up their fair share, the Mountaineers definitely will be looking to push the pace here in St. Louis. That could very well make the favored Billikens quite uncomfortable, especially coming after a week-long layoff. The Billikens are just 2-9 ATS when playing w/ 7 or more days rest. Though 0-7 SU on the road this season, App State is a respectable 3-4 ATS in those games. Meanwhile, St. Louis is 7-0 SU at home, but 2-5 ATS. Two of SLU's top three scorers have been struggling from the field recently while App State leading scorer Shabazz has twice gone for 29 pts in the L3 games. 10* Appalachian State

10* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): There are only five remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, and of those five, I don't think there's any disputing that St. John's is the weakest team. Really, there's a pretty huge gap that exists between three of the unbeatens (Virginia, Michigan, Nevada) and the other two (Houston, St. John's). Tonight, the Red Storm are underdogs for the very first time this season as it will be just their second "true" road game. They face a Seton Hall team that has had their number in this Big East opener and I look for St. John's to fall for the very 1st time. Lay the points. 

Seton Hall is no slouch either and this isn't simply a case of being the right team at the right time. The Pirates hold a win over Kentucky this year and will come into tonight riding a five-game win streak. Three of those wins, including the one over UK (84-83), were close (as in decided by six points or less). But the Pirates have also lost a couple tight ones as well. As I stated above, they've certainly had St. John's number in this Big East rivalry, including a season sweep last year. At home, they've won and covered 12 of their previous 14 meetings with the Red Storm. This is a team that just beat Maryland on the road its last time out. 

St. John's being undefeated is simply a byproduct of the schedule as they have played one of the weakest slates of games in the entire country to this point. KenPom has their schedule rated 344th out of 353 teams in the country. That's why they're unbeaten and not even ranked at this point. Four of the team's first six wins came by four points or less and then the schedule got real soft. They should also be concerned about the fact they just allowed Sacred Hart to shoot 50% in the last game. They were able to overcome that by sinking a school record 17 three-pointers, but fate catches up with them here and Seton Hall will hand them their 1st loss. 10* Seton Hall 

10* Over Knicks/Jazz (8:05 ET): Utah's streak of Under has now reached eight in a row, but the last two have been razor-thin and I think they have a willing dance partner for an Over tonight in the Knicks. New York has been terrible defensively all year long and has given up an average of 118.8 PPG its L5 contests. What an absolutely dreadful month of basketball its been in the Big Apple w/ NY going just 2-11 in December w/ both wins coming by only two points in overtime. They were just swept in a home and home by Milwaukee, failing to score 100 in either game. 

Despite NY's recent offensive ineptitude, I think Utah has a chance to set a season-high in points scored tonight and that alone could very well lead to an Over. The Jazz do averaged 110.1 PPG at home and I'm somewhat shocked that they have a losing record here as they've outscored opponents. Coming off a poor 97-point showing vs. Philadelphia on Thursday, we should see a bounce back offensively here. They shot just 38.4% against the Sixers, who are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency this year. The Knicks rank 29th in defensive efficiency and are not used to seeing totals this low. 

The Knicks didn't shoot well in either game vs. Milwaukee, but did allow an average of 110.5 PPG. Really, that number of points allowed is kind of low for the Knicks. They've allowed at least 109 in 15 consecutive games. They've allowed an average of 115.6 PPG in December, which is fourth most in the league. Utah is going to score plenty tonight, so really this one comes down to whether or not the Knicks can top 100. I think they can as they are averaging 107.8 PPG for the season and the Over is 4-2 this year when they're a road dog of at least 12.5 points. 10* Over Knicks/Jazz

8* Under Cavs/Hawks (7:35 ET): This is a matchup of two of the league's worst teams and while that usually signals a lack of defense, I look for this one to stay Under the total. Certainly, this matchup is "due" for an Under after the last TEN have all gone Over. That includes a pair this season w/ the winning side scoring 133+ in each game. But for both teams tonight, this is the second game of a back and back and I expect them to be pretty tired. Cleveland scored only 94 pts in a loss at Miami last night while Atlanta had to go to overtime to overcome Minnesota.

The Hawks came out and scored a season-high 42 first quarter points last night. They would get up by as many as 22 but blew the entire lead by getting held to 47 pts over the next two quarters of play. They were pretty fortunate to win as the T'wolves committed an innumerable amount of miscues down the stretch. The game was tied 112-112 at the end of regulation, which would NOT have been an Over had the game been over. So Over bettors were lucky to get the extra five minutes last night. I don't see another 40+ pt quarter on the horizon here and it should be pointed out that the Hawks are tied for 29th in the league (next to last) in offensive efficiency. 

Cleveland plays at a slow pace, slower than all but one team (Memphis). I talked about the importance of tempo in last night's Under bet between San Antonio and Denver and we saw what happened there. Last night's Cavaliers game did go Over, but that was due to a low total. The Cavs have failed to score 100 pts in five of their last six games now, including three straight. When they beat the Hawks back on October 30th, they got a season-best 26 pts from Rodney Hood and also forced 23 turnovers, leading to 28 pts. I don't see either of those elements being present tonight. The Cavs aren't even averaging 100 PPG on the road for the year. 8* Under Cavs/Hawks

8* Under Spurs/Nuggets (9:05 ET): With all that's currently going on in the sports world, you may not have noticed that the Spurs have turned things around and are back to being a player in the Western Conference as per usual. Now they currently still sit in ninth place, but this is a crowed conference as only 3.5 games separate them from the top. What's not surprising is how San Antonio has engineered its turnaround and that is w/ improved play on the defensive end. They held seven straight opponents under 100 pts before losing to Houston last Saturday. 

Coming off the Christmas break, the Spurs rebounded w/ a win, beating Denver 111-103. Tonight is the second half of the home & home vs. the Nuggets, this time the game takes place in Denver. The Spurs held the Nuggets to just 38.9% shooting Wednesday night, their ninth straight game holding the opposition to a FG% of 43.5 or lower and their fourth straight time allowing under 39 percent. While the Nuggets should prove harder to defend tonight at home, I don't see them going 18 of 40 from three-point range again like they did on Wednesday. That's well above their average of 10 makes per game from behind the arc. 

Denver is down three starters currently - Will Barton, Paul Milsap and Gary Harris, Jr. That coupled w/ the fact that leading scorer Nikola Jokic scored only four points while attempting five shots and it's a wonder how the Nuggets lost by only eight Wednesday night. San Antonio has actually become a remarkably efficient offensive team (#2 behind Golden State), but they still play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Surprisingly, Denver actually plays at a slightly slower pace. With both teams ranking no higher than 25th in adjusted tempo, this promises to be another relatively low scoring affair and I'm on the Under. 8* Under Spurs/Nuggets

10* Washington (7:05 ET): This is a matchup of one of the league's worst teams against one of its most disappointing. Neither distinction is ideal, but I'll still take the the team that's been disappointing, yet has some good talent on hand, 9 times out of 10. In the case of the Wizards, they have the league's worst ATS record at 11-23-1 and have failed to cover 9 of their last 10 games (also just 2-8 SU). But they're still a far better side than the Bulls, who have the league's worst point differential (getting outscored by 9.5 PPG). I'll lay the points in this one. 

Washington opened December a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. Since then, they're just 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS w/ one of the two SU wins coming in triple overtime against Phoenix. That was also the last time the Wiz played at home. Back to back poor offensive showings cost them in Indiana and Detroit, the latter loss coming Wednesday night. But this team does see a dramatic rise in scoring at home, all the way up to 118.7 PPG, a dramatic increase from what they average on the road (108.2). Washington has actually been a pretty average team when favored this year, it's when they're an underdog that they're getting blown out. This is a rare matchup where they deserve to be favored and should roll.

Chicago is predictably bad on the road where its record is just 4-13. They too lost their first game post X-Mas, in their case 119-94 to the Bulls. That loss snapped a rare two-game win streak, the first time all season that they'd won consecutive games. It was also the eighth time in the last nine games that the team failed to score 100 points. The Bulls are dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and the gap between them and the second worst team (Atlanta) is actually larger than the gap that exists between Atlanta (#29) and the 22nd team (Cleveland). Zach LaVine is set to return to a starting role tonight, but that's hardly enough for a bad team to get the job done on the road. 10* Washington

10* Wright State (7:00 ET): Looking at the respective seasons of the teams involved here, you might be surprised to see one team as a clear favorite. But the bottom line is Wright State is better than its 6-7 SU record as five of those seven losses have been by 7 pts or fewer. They remain the favorite to win the Horizon League this year. Now that conference play is set to begin, I expect the Raiders to start winning and winning big. The team is 6-1 SU at home (0-6 SU on the road) and here will be facing a UIC team that they've beaten five straight times. Lay the points.

Now Wright State may have a small problem on its hands, that being the health (ankle) of Loudon Love, the team's starting center and All-Conference player. But w/o Love, the Raiders were still able to hang tough against #17 Mississippi State last Saturday, only losing 67-63 as 13.5-point underdogs. Starting in place of Love, Parker Ernsthausen had a solid game w/ 11 points, making 3 of 4 three-pointers. Ernsthausen is the team's best three-point shooter at 46.4% from behind the arc. If the Raiders are able to hang w/ a team as good as Miss State w/o Love, then they should have no problem beating UIC if he's unable to go Friday night. 

Wright State isn't the only Horizon League team that can't win on the road. UIC is 0-6 SU away from home this year, giving up a whopping 87.3 points per game. As a result, they've been beaten by an average of more than 12.3 PPG. Now let's look at how Wright State performs at home. They allow just 63.1 PPG here at the Nutter Center and have outscored opponents by 16.6 PPG. UIC's four wins this year over board teams have all been by six points or fewer, so their record could be a lot worse. Given how well Wright State defends at home and how poorly UIC plays on that end on the road, this should end in a blowout. 10* Wright State 

10* Under Blazers/Warriors (10:35 ET): Both of these teams are off rather humiliating setbacks on Christmas Day. For a second time in less than week, Portland got demolished by Utah. Both games saw them held below 40% shooting while allowing the Jazz to shoot better than 55%. It was a 30-point loss at home last Friday and a 21-pt loss in Salt Lake City X-Mas night. As for Golden State, they got blown out on their home floor by the Lakers, 127-101, despite LeBron James having to leave the game early w/ a groin injury. So the stage is set for one of these to bounce back Thursday night. 

Portland has failed to break the 100-point barrier three times in its last four games. That includes both losses to Utah. They did beat Memphis 99-92 back on 12.19. Oracle Arena seems like an unlikely place for the Blazers to turn things around for all the obvious reasons (Golden State is good!), plus they are only 5-11 ATS on the road to begin with. Tuesday in Utah, Damian Lillard scored 20 points, but that was on 9 of 21 shooting, and the rest of the starting five combined to make just 12 field goals. Lillard's fellow starter in the backcourt, CJ McCollum, is in a real shooting slump right now. He had only 11 pts vs. the Jazz and has missed 15 of his last 17 three-point attempts. 

Perhaps McCollum and the Warriors' Klay Thompson can have a discussion about shooting slumps before tipoff. Because Thompson is in the midst of a bad one himself, having shot just 30.8% from the field the L4 games, including 3 for 18 from three-point range. On X-Mas, he was held to a season-low five points on 2 of 7 shooting. One positive for the Warriors is that when they hosted Portland last month, they held them under 100 points on 40.9% shooting. Something similar is certainly possible here tonight. Six of Golden State's last eight games have stayed Under the total. 10* Under Blazers/Warriors

8* Over Sixers/Jazz (10:35 ET): The Jazz have gone Under in their last seven games, but they were one score away from ending that streak Christmas night as they blew out Portland 117-96 (total was 214.5). That was the second time in less than a week that they crushed Portland, having also done so (by 30!) on the road last Friday. Tonight, they welcome in an Eastern Conference opponent that is off a pretty brutal loss on X-Mas, 121-114 in overtime at Boston. The Sixers didn't even end up covering despite having a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter.

My condolences to anyone who had the Sixers on Christmas or the Under for the matter. Neither they or the Celtics shot the ball very well (both below 42%), yet because of OT, the game went Over. That's over and done with (literally!) though and the bottom line here is I expect Philly to shoot much better tonight. Boston is #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and while that's where Utah finished last season, the Jazz have fallen a bit on that end of the floor this season. Note the Sixers shot 53% or better in three of their four games previous to Christmas. The Over is 7-4 when they are a dog this season. 

Utah's Under streak is due to end sooner rather than later. Note that the 1st meeting between these teams went Over (a similar total) even though the Jazz shot just 4 of 22 from three-point range. You have to figure they'll shoot much better than that tonight as they're at home. In the final three quarters vs. Portland Tuesday, they were 13 of 21 from three-point range. Also, they did dominate the paint in Philly, scoring 66 points there in that first meeting. If there is one concern though, it's that they allow visiting teams to shoot nearly 38% from behind the arc. 8* Over Sixers/Jazz

10* Over Pacers/Hawks (7:35 ET): Indiana is on an incredible run of Unders lately w/ 13 of their last 14 games going that way. During this time, they've turned it on defensively, holding 10 of the last 11 opponents to 42.2% shooting or lower. It's not like Atlanta, tonight's opponent, is a huge threat to shoot the lights out here, but they are shooting a respectable 45% for the year at home and averaging 110 PPG. Plus, like most bad teams, the Hawks aren't good defensively as they allow nearly 118 PPG, which is second most in the entire league. I'm on the Over in this one. 

One particular area when the Hawks struggle to defend is the three-point line as opponents are making 37.5% from there for the year. That's the second highest percentage allowed in the league and is especially problematic for tonight as Indiana is making 37.0% of its threes for the year, which is top five in the league. These teams did play last month and it was still a low-scoring game. Indiana won 97-89 even though they were a strong 12 of 30 from three-point range. The key was they were just 23 of 58 (39.6%) from two-point range, which is highly irregular. Atlanta also shot very poorly overall, making only 35.6% of its field goal attempts, including 27.6% from 3-pt range. 

That last meeting was in Indiana. The average Hawks' home game far exceeds what the O/U line for tonight's contest is. By the way, I should probably mention that the Hawks have won a season-high three straight games. They may be w/o leading scorer & rebounder John Collins and while the team's last game w/o him was quite low-scoring, I look for a different scenario to play out here. With this game taking place the day after X-Mas, don't be surprised if both sides aren't at their most intense on the defensive end. All three games during the Hawks win streak have stayed Under. But not only have they not won four in a row this year, they've never gone Under in four straight either. 10* Over Pacers/Hawks

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Suns headed into the X-Mas break playing - easily - their best ball of the season as they're currently riding a six-game ATS win streak. They've also won four of those six games straight up, though they lost the last two. Getting top two scorers - Devin Booker and TJ Warren - both back was the catalyst for the turnaround as the team was getting routinely blown out when both were simultaneously sidelined. This is not a great spot for the team from out West as it's the finale of a 5-game Eastern Conference road trip that overlapped the Holiday. I'm going to lay the short number, even though Orlando has been struggling after its own "unique trip." 

Two weeks ago, the Magic headed down to Mexico for a couple of games and won them both, beating Utah and Chicago in a couple of low-scoring affairs. But since they returned to the States, things have not gone well w/ three consecutive double-digit losses. The most recent was here at home, 115-91 to Miami, extra critical because it put the Magic 1.5 games behind the Heat for the "coveted" 8th position in the Eastern Conference. Offensively, the team has struggled lately, but I think that'll turn around here as they face the team w/ the 4th lowest defensive efficiency rating in the league. 

Phoenix isn't very good on the offensive end either, ranking 28th in the league there. At the end of the day, 4-2 SU record the L6 games or not, the Suns are not a good road team and not getting nearly enough points here. They're just 3-15 SU on the road, getting outscoring by 11.5 PPG. When these teams met out in Phoenix last month, Orlando was a four-point favorite and won 99-85. So you can see they're a pretty strong value, by comparison, here at home. That was one of the games the Suns were w/o both Booker and Warren. Still though, I think tonight's line is an overadjustment based on recent form. I look for the Magic to turn it around. 8* Orlando

8* Over Blazers/Jazz (10:35 ET): Utah just trounced Portland 120-90 (in Portland!) four days ago, so you can bet the Blazers are out for revenge. But this game takes place in Salt Lake City and the Blazers are just 1-7 ATS their L8 road games. I do think the pointspread is a bit inflated, but it's the total that I believe is offering more value in this final matchup of the NBA's five-game Christmas slate Tuesday. It's easily the lowest O/U line of the five games and when you look at how many points are typically being scored in Portland games this season (221.1) and that Utah is averaging over 110 PPG at home, I think you have a clear sign that Over is the way to go here.

The last couple seasons have seen the Jazz be one of the more staunch teams in the league at the defensive end. But they've slipped from 2nd (last year) in defensive efficiency to 6th (this year). That may not seem like a huge drop, but truthfully they've recently risen up the efficiency rankings thanks to performances like the one they had in Portland Friday night. They held the Blazers to 40% shooting for the game and to their second lowest point total of the season to date. But I expect an offensive bounce back from the Blazers in this one. They already did bounce back a bit in a 121-118 overtime win over Dallas on Sunday, including a 37-point second quarter. Really, the Blazers should have finished off Dallas in the regulation as they had a 14-pt 2H lead. 

Utah comes into this game on a six-game Under streak, but a lot of those games had higher totals than this one. The Jazz have held four of their last six opponents to a FG% of 40.2 or less, but I do NOT project that to be the case here as Portland comes in 48.0% its L5 games despite what happened in the head to head meeting Friday night. Also, the Jazz should start to improve offensively. They beat both Portland and Golden State in a three-day span despite SG Mitchell missing 30 of his 36 field goal attempts! The last three times these teams have played, the game has gone Under, but I like this one to go Over. 8* Over Blazers/Jazz 

8* Golden State (8:05 ET): The NBA's marquee battle on Christmas features the first meeting between LeBron and the Warriors since the former jumped ship to the Lakers. The LeBron-led Lakers are having a pretty good season thus far as they currently sit tied for 4th in the Western Conference at 19-14 SU. They've played better than .600 ball since an 0-3 SU start, but do enter this game off a loss. I played against them Sunday night vs. Memphis, thinking it was a clear lookahead and sure enough that's what it was as LA was upset by the Grizzlies, 107-99 as 5-pt chalk. The lookahead may be over, but my view is the Lakers are still outclassed here and I'm going to lay the points w/ the Warriors, who are in the rare role of "contrarian" favorite. 

The three-time NBA Champion Warriors don't seem quite as invincible this season as in year's past, but what's scary for the rest of the West is that they're still tied for first place in the conference. Injuries, more than anything else, have hampered the Dubs. But they're back at full strength for this National TV showdown and I believe eager to show they've still "got it." They too were in a bit of a lookahead Sunday night, hosting the Clippers, and failed to cover in a 129-127 victory. Golden State is now just 1-6 ATS its last seven games, but that's helped to reduce this line. The Warriors are still 15-3 SU at home and averaging 116.5 PPG. The lead the league in offensive efficiency, as per usual. 

Remember that James has not had much success against Golden State since his Cavaliers pulled off a monumental upset in the 2016 NBA Finals. James' record in his L12 games vs. GSW is 1-11 SU (2-10 ATS) w/ that one SU victory coming down 0-3, at home, in the '17 Finals. You could make the case that he's got a better supporting cast now than he did in Cleveland. But two of the Lakers' big men - JaVale McGee and Tyson Chandler - are questionable for this game due to illness. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant just went for a combined 77 pts against the Clippers and have combined to average 58.2 PPG this year. I would expect a big game here from Klay Thompson (who has been in a mini-shooting slump the L6 games) as well. Be wary of the popular underdog. 8* Golden State

10* Over Thunder/Rockets (3:00 ET): I realize that Unders have been the way to go on these NBA X-Mas Day affairs, in years' past. But the 2018-19 season has seen an influx of scoring and I believe we're gonna see the trend reversed this year in a couple games, including this one featuring Thunder-Rockets. Little can be ascertained from looking at the only other time these teams played this season, which was back on November 8th. Russell Westbrook didn't play for OKC, yet the Thunder still won easily, 98-80 as five-point home underdogs. So maybe there is one thing we can ascertain and that's OKC is the better team here. I do believe that to be the case still, but the Rockets are a little different now than they were in November as well. Over is the call here. 

Back when these teams first met, Houston had yet to make the call to put perpetual loser Carmelo Anthony on ice. Deactivating Anthony has definitely been a case of "addition by subtraction" for the Rockets this season. He certainly didn't help in OKC last month, missing 10 of 11 shots. Now Houston must also overcome the loss of another key player, Chris Paul, for this X-mas Day showdown. James Harden is going to have to carry the workload, but that's okay as he's been averaging nearly 40 PPG in the team's last six contests. Also, the underrated Clint Capella is helping out w/ three 20+ pt efforts in the L5 games. At home, I can tell you the Rockets are a lock to improve upon their three-points shooting from the 1st meeting where they went 11 of 42.

Houston averages 112.7 PPG at home. So even though OKC is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, I'll look for the Rockets to score their "share" here. As for the Thunder, Paul Georgia is averaging 34.3 points the L6 games and Westbrook has posted a triple double in three of the last four games. This month, they've scored no fewer than 107 pts in 10 of 11 games. One bad quarter (17 pts) cost them Sunday vs. Minnesota. They scored a total of 95 pts in the other three quarters. In that first meeting w/ the Rockets, all five starters were in double figures by the end of the third quarter. They scored 59 pts in the 1H, but just 39 in the 2nd as the game was out of hand. I expect a more competitive - and certainly higher scoring game - this time around. 10* Over Thunder/Rockets

8* Memphis (9:35 ET): The Lakers have a huge X-Mas Night showdown w/ the Warriors (1st time LeBron faces them this year) to look forward to while Memphis has revenge and will be looking to snap a season-worst five-game losing streak (also 0-5 ATS) here. In other words, the situation totally favors the Grizzlies, who will not be playing on X-Mas and are simply trying to avoid a winless road trip. Despite Memphis recently hitting the skids, I still rate these teams fairly evenly in a crowded Western Conference and will be taking this points in this one. 

Four of Memphis' five losses have been by eight points or less, the exception coming at Golden State. Friday saw the Grizz lose out in Sacramento, 102-99, despite holding the Kings to just 37.5% shooting. It was a game they led by 13 at the half and by nine going into the 4Q. Though offense has been an issue recently (eight straight games w/o scoring 100 pts), motivation will be not be tonight. Memphis was blown out by the Lakers, at home, earlier this month by a score of 111-88. In terms of margin that was the Grizzlies' second worst defeat of the season. Only the season opener at Indiana topped it. 

Though we'd obviously like to start seeing Memphis score more, note that their low point totals are often related to the pace at which they play, the slowest in the entire league (in terms of # of possessions per game). Defensively, there are no issues as they've held virtually every opponent under its season average in PPG this year. They are top five in defensive efficiency and #1 in the Western Conf in points allowed. The Lakers are generally not that sound defensively and are in a massive lookahead against a highly motivated underdog. All signs point to a Grizzlies' cover here. 8* Memphis

10* Cleveland (6:05 ET): These two teams will enter Sunday tied for having the worst SU record in the league (8-25 SU). That hardly makes this an attractive matchup on paper, but I see no reason why Cleveland wouldn't be favored at home here, at least by by the "token" three points. There's no reason to believe the Bulls are any better, let alone definitively enough where they'd be close to a pick 'em on the road. The Bulls did win Friday, 90-80 over Orlando, but are just 1-5 ATS/0-6 SU this year when off a SU win as a dog. In fact, they haven't won B2B games all season.

Cleveland got off to a very ugly 2-14 SU start after LeBron James left them "high and dry" for a second time. Truthfully, things haven't gotten a ton better over the L17 games, but they're a more respectable 6-11 SU during that span. They've beaten some good teams too; like Indiana on Tuesday. Tonight is the Cavs' return home after a difficult three-game trek, which also saw them have to stop in Milwaukee and Toronto. Playing the Pacers, Bucks and Raptors, all on the road in a four-night span, is about as tough a trip as their is in the Eastern Conference right now. 

Predictably, both of these teams are better at home than on the road. That's yet another reason I have Cleveland favored here. In addition to matching overall SU records, these teams have the same records at home (5-12 SU) and on the road (3-13 SU). The Bulls are being outscored by 11.4 PPG as the road team this year. They're also being outscored by a whopping 22.4 PPG off a win. Cleveland has revenge here for a one-point loss in the Windy City (as 4.5-pt dogs) last month. While Chicago has a hot Lauri Markkanen, they are still short-handed w/ both Bobby Portis and Zach LaVine out again. 10* Cleveland

10* Under Mavericks/Warriors (8:35 ET): Dallas doesn't figure to fare too well tonight. They're 0-8 straight up their last eight road games w/ a total of 220 pts or higher. They're big underdogs here at Golden State. In addition to that, they come in riding a four-game losing streak. Three of those losses have taken place on the road, where they're significantly weaker. At home, the Mavs are a strong 13-3 SU on the year. But on the road, they're just 2-12 SU. However, I'm going to concentrate on a different trend tonight and that's the fact Dallas hasn't gone Over in four straight games all season. Take the Under. 

Golden State is probably as healthy as they've been all season. But that didn't prevent them from getting beat 108-103 out in Utah Thursday night. They were held to 40 percent shooting overall, including 32 percent from three-point range in another low-scoring effort. The Under is now 5-1 in the Dubs' last six games and they've been held to 110 pts or fewer in four of those games. Dallas may certainly not be as staunch as Utah, but I think they can keep the Warriors in relative check tonight.

I mentioned above that Dallas has not gone Over in four straight games all year. Well, they come into this game on a three-game Over streak. Not only are they 2-0 Under when off three straight Overs this season, but they're 10-2 in the situation the L3 seasons. When these teams faced off last month, it was a 112-109 Mavs win in Dallas (GSW not as healthy at the time). The O/U line for this game is about 10 points higher than it was for last month's, which seems to be an overadjustment by the linesmakers. The Under is 9-4 this season in Golden State home games where the total is 220 pts or higher. 10* Under Mavericks/Warriors