8* Under Lakers/Magic (7:05 ET): The Lakers have not lost a game outside of Staples Center all year. Their only "road" loss was the season opener against the Clippers where they were the designated "road team." Things couldn't be going better in LeBron's second year in LA as the team has won 21 of 23 games since that Opening Night to the Clippers. They're on a 4-0 SU/ATS streak entering tonight's game in Orlando and have averaged 139 PPG in the last two.

Orlando had won four of five going into Monday. But that's where they ran into Milwaukee, which was just the start of a brutal scheduling stretch. Now they get the best team from the West, which is followed by a visit from Houston and then a four-game West Coast swing. Remember what I discussed in the analysis for Magic-Bucks. Orlando is both 28th in scoring (3rd worst) and 3rd in points allowed. I had the Under in that last game and it cashed comfortably. The Lakers are not as prolific offensively as Milwaukee, despite what they may have done the L2 games.

The Lakers are also not too far behind Orlando in the defensive rankings as they give up the 5th fewest points per game in the league. So a battle of top five defensive teams sort of lends itself to an Under, no? Orlando is playing at the second slowest pace in the league, meaning their games average the second fewest number of total possessions per game. The fewer possessions a team has, the fewer chances it has to score. It's just that logical. The Magic also are still without one of their best scorers, Nikola Vucevic. 8* Under Lakers/Magic

8* Over Knicks/Blazers (10:05 ET): Once again, we find the Knicks rated near the bottom of the league in all important metrics. They've already made a coaching change, firing David Fizdale, but if you think that's going to lead to any sort of positive turnaround, think again. Sure, "true believers" will point to the fact the Knicks lost by only one in interim Mike Miller's debut, Saturday at home vs. Indiana (lost Fizdale's last two games by a combined 81 points). But the bottom line is this group has lost nine in a row overall and isn't going to get better for a LONG time. 

While the Knicks are one of the league's worst teams, Portland has to be considered among the most disappointing. A regular playoff participant in the Western Conference, the Blazers have started just 9-15 SU. Keep in mind they finished second in the West last year. Following B2B home losses, this should be an easy one, but I'm not about to lay this many points even if the Knicks are the opponent. But what I am confident in saying is Portland will shoot better tonight than it did in its last game. 

The Blazers made just 36.0% of its field goal attempts in the 108-96 loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday. That came after they gave up 136 points to the Lakers on Friday. They did shoot 56% in a win last week vs. Sacramento, so they are capable of putting together a big night offensively. That's what they should do here as the Knicks are pretty terrible defensively. But so are the Blazers, who actually allow MORE PPG (115.4) than the Knicks. Look for a high-scoring game here. 8* Over Knicks/Blazers

8* Baylor (9:00 ET): Butler (9-0) is one of eight unbeatens still standing, but tonight the Bulldogs are facing arguably their toughest test to date. They head down to Waco to face a 7-1 Baylor team that just knocked off another previously unbeaten team (Arizona) on Saturday. For Butler, this game comes on the heels of a hard fought home win over Florida. That win extended the nation's longest non-conference home win streak to 56 games. But the Bulldogs are just 6-17 SU their L23 on the road. I'm going to lay the points here.

A number of unbeatens fell on Saturday and soon enough there will be none left. For Butler, this just seems like the spot. Baylor has lost only once (by 3 at Washington) and comes in on their own six-game win streak, which includes wins over Villanova and Arizona. The most impressive thing about this Bears team is that they are allowing just 33.2% shooting at home, including 22.1% from three-point range. So for the first time all season, you can look for Butler to struggle to score tonight. Villanova is the only Baylor opponent to top 67 pts thus far. 

Butler hasn't let any opponent score more than 67 this season. However, the three times they have played away from home, they've allowed opponents to shoot 46.7%. Baylor is one of the few teams in the country not struggling with the new three-point distance as they're currently making 37.8% from behind the arc. Over the last three seasons, Butler has never won a game in which it was a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. That won't change here. 8* Baylor

10* Washington (7:05 ET): No one is going to claim that Charlotte's 9-16 SU record is anything to "crow about," but the fact of the matter is the Hornets are lucky to have won that many games. They've got a per game point differential of -7.7, which ranks 5th worst in the league. So expect the losses to pile up as the season progresses. They've dropped four of five, including a loss to a terrible Atlanta team on Saturday where they gave up 122 points. This is a another shot where we don't have to lay many points to fade this very bad team. 

Washington is interesting because they are very good offensively (top three in PPG) but also very bad defensively (allow most PPG). So you can always expect a wild game when this team takes the court. They gave up 135 pts their last time out, but that was to the Clippers. Tonight marks the first time this season that the Wizards have been installed as road favorites, which tells you all you need to know about Charlotte. 

Recently, the Wiz have been have had to face a number of the league better teams, which helps explain why they've lost seven of nine. This is a rare game that they should win. Again, it's telling that they are favored here despite having a slightly worse WL record than Charlotte. While both teams struggle defensively, Washington's offensive prowess should be enough to get the 'W' here. Three weeks ago, they beat the Hornets 125-118 in D.C. Expect a similar result tonight. 10* Washington

8* Over Grizzlies/Warriors (10:35 ET): Two bad teams meeting here. Memphis is 26th in both net efficiency rating and point differential. Golden State is 27th in net efficiency rating and 28th in point differential. With both of the Splash Brothers (Thompson, Curry) out, the Warriors are obviously a shell of their former championship selves. Memphis was expected to be bad.

At least the Grizzlies are getting some good news as rookie Ja Morant is probable to return tonight. That should aid them in the scoring department. Then again, defense has been more of an issue with the team giving up 117 PPG. Without Morant, they did shoot 53.1% on Saturday in Utah, but they let the Jazz shoot over 56% so that led to a 126-112 loss. 

Golden State is only averaging 94.2 points its last five games, which is something I never thought I'd be writing this season. Look for them to start scoring more tonight, however. They are averaging 107.2 PPG at home. Note those L5 games were all on the road. Like Memphis though, this team struggles defensively. They are allowing opponents to shoot almost 40% from three-point range. 8* Over Grizzlies/Warriors

analysis soon

8* Under Magic/Bucks (8:05 ET): Milwaukee looks downright unstoppable right now as their only loss since November 1st came at Utah in the second game of a back to back. Since then, they've won 13 straight and are now outscoring teams by over 13 PPG for the year. This is the best team in basketball. Friday, they beat the Clippers here at home by 28 points! 

Orlando's season got off to a bit of a rocky start as they failed to score 100 points in any of the first seven games. Since then, they've gotten into somewhat of a groove as they'll bring a four game win streak into tonight. Their most recent win was an ugly 93-87 decision in Cleveland where they were 2.5-point favorites. They shot just 39% and it was the 11th time this year they were held below 100 points.

The Magic have the unique distinction of having scored the third fewest points in the league while also allowing the second fewest. It's a little surprising then that they've still gone Over in half their games. Milwaukee is no slouch defensively either as they've held three of the last four opponents below 100 points. They are actually #1 in the league in defensive efficiency by a pretty comfortable margin. So look for this one to stay Under the total. 8* Under Magic/Bucks

8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I just don't see how the Pelicans can be favored over anybody right now. They've lost eight in a row w/ three of those coming by at least 20 points. The most recent was the worst one yet as they lost by 46 in Dallas Saturday. They are 1-6-1 ATS during the eight-game SU losing streak. Incredibly, that hasn't stopped oddsmakers from favoring them for the third time in the last five games. Detroit might not be a good road team, but they are better than the Pelicans. 

The Pistons have won three of four with the only loss coming to Milwaukee. Two of the wins were blowouts (San Antonio, Cleveland), then they rallied to beat Indiana 108-101 on Friday. With games against Dallas and Houston coming up, winning here is a must. Note that despite a 9-14 SU record, the Pistons have both a positive point differential and net efficiency rating this year. 

New Orleans' YTD point differential and their net efficiency rating are both among the worst in the league. Only five teams have been outscored by a wider margin overall. They have the third worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. I've got them rated as the 7th worst team in my own personal power ratings. Injuries have been rampant. Just not a good team and they shouldn't be favored here. 8* Detroit

10* Columbia (7:00 ET): Since Saturday, the list of unbeaten teams has fallen from 16 to 8 w/ DePaul being the latest victim. Of the eight remaining unbeatens, we have Duquesne rated the weakest. The Dukes are in action Monday, hosting Columbia. The Dukes have been favored in all seven games so far, as they are tonight, but this is a team that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency. No other unbeaten ranks lower than 78th in that category.

Columbia is just 3-7. This is the second time in the last three games that they are facing an unbeaten foe. Last Monday it was Delaware. They lost by eight to the Blue Hens, who have since tasted defeat for the first time. On Friday, the Lions lost by two at Bryant as they turned it over in the final seconds, which led to the game winning basket. Incredibly, that was Columbia’s third loss by exactly two points already this year. I feel they are better than their record. 

Will the Ivy League contingent pull the outright upset here? Not sure. But it’s definitely worth a try plus the points. They’ve faced a tougher schedule than Duquesne. I mentioned earlier that the Dukes have been favored in every game. Well, they are just 3-4 ATS including 0-2 ATS when laying double digits. 10* Columbia

10* Grand Canyon (6:30 ET): What would your reaction be if I told you that Liberty is the team w/ the best SU record in the country? You'd probably be surprised, right? Well, it's the case as the Flames were the first team in the country to get to 10 wins w/o a loss. Tonight they put that unblemished mark on the line against Grand Canyon University. Yesterday saw FIVE unbeatens fall in College Hoops, leaving us w/ just nine left. My view is a couple more are likely to fall this week, this Liberty team being one of them. Take the points here. 

Looking at Liberty's 10-0 SU record, they've been favored eight times and played two non-board teams. So them being unbeaten was actually expected from the oddsmakers' perspective. The Flames have yet to play anyone of any real substance and their last two opponents - Kentucky Xian and Trinity Baptist - hardly even qualify as real College Basketball teams. While they won those two games by a combined 105 pts, not all the news was good. Guard Caleb Homesley, who is second on the team in scoring and first in assists, suffered a hamstring injury. He may not be able to go tonight. 

Grand Canyon is just 4-6, but they've stepped up and taken on some tougher teams like Illinois and San Diego State. Earlier this week, the Antelopes earned a 78-67 OT win over Mt St Mary's here at home. This is a holiday tournament w/ GCU as the host, so there's no better way to make an impact than by knocking off one of the nine unbeatens left in College Hoops. I'm just not a believer in Liberty's ability to remain unbeaten. 10* Grand Canyon

10* Miami (6:05 ET): The Heat have firmly established themselves among the top six teams in the Eastern Conference. You have to figure Milwaukee is going to finish first. But after that, the order of Miami, Boston, Toronto, Philadelphia and Indiana is anyone's guess. Something I do feel comfortable in saying is you shouldn't expect Chicago to be entering that discussion anytime soon. The Bulls foolishly thought they were playoff contenders entering this season. But it's been "same old, same ol" as they come into Sunday sporting an 8-15 SU record. Lay the points here. 

The Bulls lost outright as a favorite their last time out. It was at home to Golden State, one of the worst teams in the league (doesn't that still sound odd to say!). The Bulls let the Warriors shoot 53.5%. Prior to that loss, Chicago had actually won B2B games. But looking at the slew of recent opponents, this is a big step up in class. The Bulls last seven games have all come against losing teams. That includes TWO losses to Golden State. The last time they faced a team with a winning record was November 22nd. It was the Heat, oddly enough. The Bulls lost by eight - at home. 

At the time, that was Miami's fifth straight win. They've now won 10 of 13 overall. As a favorite, the Heat are 9-2 ATS. They are also 9-0 SU at home, 7-1-1 ATS. Boston and Philadelphia are the only other teams yet to lose at home. It would be one thing if the Heat were just winning at home. But they're outscoring opponents here by an incredible 17.1 PPG! That's several points better than the two other unbeaten teams at home. Keep in mind the Heat the entire way the last time they faced the Bulls. 10* Miami

8* Phoenix (8:05 ET): It's okay to be skeptical of the Suns. After all, this is a team that's finished dead last in the Western Conference each of the last three seasons. But they are clearly improved now and what's most impressive about that is they're doing it without the services of the suspended Deandre Ayton, last season #1 overall draft choice. Right now, the Suns project to be a better than .500 team by season's end and have the league's 12th best point differential. If that holds, they could likely snap what is the league's 2nd longest playoff drought. 

Houston is obviously one of the "big boys" in the Western Conference and their goals are a lot different than those of tonight's opponent. After somewhat of a rough start to this season, the Rockets clearly have gotten their act together as they've won 11 of their last 15 games. James Harden and Russell Westbrook form a deadly scoring combo and the team just won in Toronto Thursday night, something that is not easy to do. But tonight marks just the 4th time this year that the Rockets have been asked to lay double digits. The previous two were against Atlanta and Golden State, the two worst teams in the league. Phoenix is a much higher class opponent. 

The Suns have not beaten the Rockets since April 2016, losing the last 11 head to head matchups. But all of those came when they were one of the league's bottom-feeders. Tonight is a chance to prove themselves as a legit playoff contender as they look to finish a four-game road trip at 3-1 SU. Not saying Phoenix will win tonight, but they should at least keep it close. This line is several points off from where own power rankings say it should be at. 8* Phoenix

10* Over Arkansas/Western Kentucky (7:30 ET): Arkansas has two perfect streaks going coming into tonight's game w/ WKU. They are 8-0 straight up and also 8-0 Under to start the season. The former streak is their best start since the 1997-98 season when they were still only a couple years removed from winning the National Championship. But the latter streak is what we're concerned with here as no team has gone Under more w/o an Over this season. After last night, there are only four teams in the country that have not gone Over or at least pushed on the total.

This will be the second time the Razorbacks have left campus this year. The first was a 62-61 win over Georgia Tech last week where they did not cover as a 2.5-point road favorite. Sound familiar? After failing to cover that game, the Hogs have gone 0-2 ATS since as they won close against both Northern Kentucky and Austin Peay in Fayatteville. While they are allowing only 61 PPG so far, that number will be severely challenged here by a Western Kentucky team that's averaging 79.6 PPG overall, including 94.0 at home. The Hilltoppers are shooting over 50% for the year. 

These teams met last season, almost one year ago to the date. WKU pulled a 78-77 upset in Fayatteville as an 11-pt dog. The game stayed Under by one-half points (total was 155.5). As you can see, there's been a noticeable drop in the O/U line for tonight's contest and that's certainly owed to how Arkansas has opened the season. After three straight games with less than stellar shooting, I think the Razorbacks are likely to get back on track offensively tonight. The only WKU games to stay Under this year all had totals higher than this one. 10* Over Arkansas/Western Kentucky

8* Under CS Northridge/Portland State (10:30 ET): Cal State Northridge will be going for a 2-0 sweep in the city of Portland this week. Wednesday night, they surprised me by beating Portland U 71-64 as a five-point dog. The Matadors started the year 0-7, but have now won two straight. (Last weekend they beat Fresno State 73-72). They've ended a streak, but now it's time for Portland State to do the same. The Vikings have gone Over in every game this year. Keeping w/ the theme of this three-pack, we will go Under tonight. 

Full disclosure -- I had Portland against CS Northridge Wednesday. Turns out I had reason to be suspicious of the short line w/ the Matadors pulling the outright upset. Neither team shot well (CSN 38.7%, Portland 32.7%), but the final score was aided by a combined 37 made free throws. While the Over is 6-3 so far in Cal State Northridge games, tonight's total is the highest they will have faced. This is not a great shooting team. 

Portland State is 7-0 Over, but this total also marks a new season-high for them. Like Cal State Northridge, the hosts don't shoot well. Especially from three-point range where they are a dreadful 30.1% for the year and 18.2% at home. After allowing six of its last seven opponents to shoot at least 50% from the floor, CS-Northridge will be a welcome opponent for the Vikings tonight. 8* Under CS Northridge-Portland State

analysis soon

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Two records that are applicable to this matchup make little sense to me. One is that the Thunder are 0-8 ATS the last 8 meetings with the T'wolves. For most of that timeframe, OKC has been the better team. It would be one thing if they were winning and not covering, but they are also 2-6 straight up in those eight games. The other record that has me "scratching my head" is Minnesota's 7-3 SU road record this year. They are only 3-7 SU at home. Normally, you would not see a home vs. road split like that. I'm laying the points here. 

My guess is you're going to start to see that home vs. road split start to "even out" for Minnesota. In fact, it's already happening as Wednesday night they lost in Dallas, 121-114, even with the Mavs being in the second night of a back to back. Two key players for Minnesota are on the injured list here - Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) and Andrew Wiggins (thumb). The status of the latter seems more questionable for tonight. Monitor the injury situations, but regardless this play stands. The T'Wolves have dropped six of nine with Towns and Wiggins in the lineup and I don't like them here getting such a short number. 

Everyone expected Oklahoma City to drop precipitously in the standings this year due to losing both Paul George and Russell Westbrook. But they've been surprisingly competitive for HC Billy Donovan. The Thunder have a nearly identical point differential compared to the T'wolves and a slightly better net efficiency rating. So I agree with them being a favorite here.  They've won 6 of the 7 times they've been a favorite this year. They are long overdue to cover a spread against Minnesota. 10* Oklahoma City

8* Under TN Martin/Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Tennessee-Martin has gone Over in every game this year, but you can look for that streak to come to an end tonight in Mt. Pleasant. While it's true Central Michigan is the highest scoring team in the country right now (95.1 PPG) by a pretty wide margin, their presence in the matchup obviously results in a much higher than normal O/U line for TN Martin. The O/U line for tonight is 15 pts higher than any of the Skyhawks' previous six lined games. Take the Under. 

Central Michigan comes in at 6-2 SU with all six wins coming here at home. They probably should be 7-1, but blew an 18-pt halftime lead at DePaul (who is still undefeated, mind you), a result I'm still bitter over as the Chippewas were my Game of the Month that day and wound up not even covering (lost by 13). They rebounded nicely w/ an 88-72 win over Youngstown State Saturday. That makes two games in a row that would not have gone Over tonight's total. While the Chippewas have gone over 100 pts four times, three of those were against non-board teams and the other was vs. Miss Valley State, who is the worst D-I team. 

Half of Central Michigan's games would not have gone Over tonight's total. If the number is high for them, then imagine what we're dealing w/ for TN Martin. None of the Skyhawks' last four games would have gone Over this number either. They just competed down in Cancun, losing to Gardner-Webb, but then beating Boston U. Three times this year, TN Martin has been held to 67 points or less. Defensively, they have issues, which is a concern against an opponent like CMU. But note road teams are shooting just 40.8% here in Mt Pleasant. The road team will be kept in check offensively in this one and that keeps the game Under the total. 8* Under TN Martin/Central Michigan

10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Wizards have definitely had their share of struggles (especially on the defensive end) to start the year, but I don't think the Sixers should be laying this many points. They may be undefeated at home (10-0!), but Philadelphia has gone just 5-6 on the road. They have given up more points than they've scored on the road and while they'll enter tonight on a four-game winning streak, three of those four wins were by six points or less. Take the points. 

Washington obviously needs to get its act together defensively if it wants to be taken seriously. They are allowing 122.9 points per game, which is easily the most in the league. That would also be the most points allowed per game by any team since the 1980's. Incredibly, there have already been seven games this season where the Wizards scored 120+ pts and LOST! Despite this, they make for a good underdog by averaging 118.9 PPG, third most in the NBA. Bradley Beal leads the way by averaging 28.9 PPG himself. The Wiz are 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. 

Philadelphia will then obviously need to score a lot to cover the spread tonight. While Washington's defense is definitely questionable, there's been only one time all season that the 76ers have scored 120+ in a game. Over the L5 games, they are averaging just 103.2 PPG. There have been two previous times when Washington has lost three in a row. Both times they won and covered the next time out. Bottom line is they'll score enough to cover the number here. 10* Washington

8* Portland (10:00 ET): Is this line a joke? I'm being serious when asking that question. Cal State Northridge just won its first game, beating Fresno State by a single point (73-72) as seven-point home underdogs. The Matadors had opened the year 0-7 and were 0-5 ATS the first five games. Only one of those losses was by single digits. Portland isn't Gonzaga (or even San Francisco for that matter!), but the WCC contingent should win rather easily at home tonight. Lay the short number.

Portland's only loss so far was down at USC where they were a 23-point dog. Since then, they've rattled off five consecutive victories, all of them coming by fairly comfortable margins. Sunday's 65-56 triumph at the expense of Incarnate Word was the first game all year that the Pilots failed to cover. The reason for the ATS loss was a slow start as the Pilots actually trailed at halftime. But they were caught laying a bigger number than they are tonight, so a similar slow start (if that even happens) wouldn't be an issue. 

Hopefully Portland plays well from start to finish. They certainly should. CS-Northridge is allowing 88.1 PPG and is one of the worst defensive teams in the country right now. They are 321st in defensive efficiency (there are only 353 D-I schools) and only two teams are allowing more points per game. In other words, the home team should have a big offensive night. At home, the Pilots are 4-0 SU so far, shooting 50.2% themselves while allowing an opposing FG% of just 34.2. Last year, Portland was able to beat CS-Northridge on the road. They should do the same at home. 8* Portland

analysis soon

10* Over Pacers/Thunder (8:05 ET): Indiana has cemented itself as one of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference by winning 13 of 17. After taking a rare loss on Saturday (119-116 at Philadelphia), they bounced back w/ a relatively easy 117-104 victory over a bad Memphis team. That was also their 6th win in the L7 games, a stretch that has seen them shoot the ball very well. What's remarkable about the offensive effort is that they are lacking in a "go-to" scorer. (Victor Oladipo still out). Can they hot shooting continue tonight in OKC? I think so. Take the Over.

Over those last seven games, the Pacers have scored at least 111 points six times. They are shooting above 50% in the last five. While some might be looking at tonight as the game where they finally "cool off," Oklahoma City is not all that impressive defensively. Twice in the last five games, the Thunder allowed 130 points. While they are coming off a pair of Unders against New Orleans (won both games), look for something different here. There's a notable increase in offense when OKC is at home. They average 111.7 PPG on 48.1% shooting, including 37.1% from 3-pt range. 

That uptick offense should lead to a vastly different result from what we saw in Indiana last month when these teams met. In a 111-85 Pacers' rout, the teams combined to miss 35 of 48 three-point attempts. The Thunder shot just 35.8% for the game. The increase in offense that I'm anticipating tonight may not mean a win for the Thunder, but they should at least "hold their own" when it comes to scoring. This total is a lot lower than either game vs. the Pelicans. The L6 head to head meetings have all gone Under, but this one changes that. 10* Over Pacers/Thunder

8* Purdue (7:15 ET): This is an interesting number as Purdue opened as the favorite, but the line has swung in Virginia's direction and I think there's a good shot the Hoos go off as the favorite at tipoff. Before you go chastising the oddsmakers for how they set the line, note that Purdue's 4-3 SU record is highly misleading as the three games they lost were all close. Most still consider the Boilermakers to be one of the best teams in America, most notably the KenPom rankings, which have them at 13th! I'll call for them to hand Virginia what would only its 4th loss since the start of last season! 

Virginia is 7-0 and winning games in its typical fashion. Tony Bennett's defense is allowing a minuscule 40.3 points per game so far, which is impressive even by its yearly standard. They just held Maine to 26 points (for the game!) last week. No one has scored more than 55 and the next highest point total they allowed was 46! But the competition also hasn't exactly been fierce. Note the Cavaliers are actually 0-5 ATS the L5 games because they are only averaging 55.1 PPG themselves. 

 They may not be as stout as Virginia, but Purdue is giving up just 58.4 PPG. They are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. This game figures to be a "rock fight." But don't discount the home court advantage. The Boilermakers have won 34 of their last 36 games in West Lafayette. A 63-60 loss over the weekend to Florida State may have dropped them to 1-5 SU L6 games vs. the ACC, but this is a massive revenge game for a five-point loss in LY's Elite 8 where Virginia had to make a last-second 3-pointer to force OT. This year, the Cavaliers are really struggling from behind the new 3-pt line, shooting just 25%! 8* Purdue

10* Rutgers (9:00 ET): Michigan-Louisville isn't the only game I'm playing in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge Tuesday night. While far from being the most marquee game on the slate, Rutgers-Pitt happens to offer the most value. Not sure the home team even deserves to be favored here. Though off to a 6-2 start this year, remember that the Pitt program had fallen on some real "hard times" recently. They were a combined 16-43 SU the previous two seasons. I remain unconvinced that they've taken any real significant steps. Take the points here. 

Pitt is playing at a very slow pace so far as only 15 teams in the country average a fewer number of possessions per game. HC Jeff Capel, now in his second season, would like to play faster. It just hasn't happened for the Panthers so far. Now they've been mostly winning, so tempo hasn't been an issue. They just held both Kansas State and Northwestern to 59 points in a Thanksgiving Weekend tournament down in Fort Myers. But if Rutgers can push the pace here and score like they have their L2 games, then Pitt is going to be in a lot of trouble here. 

Remember Pitt did lose as an 18.5-point favorite to Nicholls State here at home earlier in the year. They also lost by 15 to West Virginia, also at home. Rutgers has yet to play a "true" road game and it's only loss was to St. Bonaventure as an 8.5-point neutral court favorite. The Scarlet Knights have topped 80 pts in B2B games and also beat the same SF Austin team that beat Duke. The last game was an 82-57 blowout of UMass. I just don't think Pitt has the scoring to keep up here. 10* Rutgers

8* Dallas (7:35 ET): I'm not sure that the market has truly caught up to how good the Mavericks really are. Beating the Lakers by double digits Sunday night, on the road no less, certainly should have served notice. Yet the line for tonight's game with the middling Pelicans remains far too short. Dallas has won and covered seven of its last eight games, the only loss coming to the Clippers. They own the 2nd best point differential and net efficiency rating in the West. I have them #4 overall in my own power rankings. Lay the short number here. 

New Orleans comes in as losers of five straight, so that's another reason to be suspect of this short number. The Pelicans were just swept in a home and home by the Thunder. Both losses were close, but the Thunder came in at just 1-8 SU on the road. Dallas is 7-2 SU and ATS away from home so far. 

Defense has been a big problem so far in the Big Easy as the Pelicans are allowing 118.7 PPG, most in the Western Conference. That's going to be an even bigger problem tonight when facing the league's most efficient offensive team. The Mavericks are currently averaging more than 120 PPG on the road. They just beat a Lakers team that was on a 10-game win streak, so a Pelicans team that's on a five-game losing skid should be no match, especially w/o Zion Williamson. 8* Dallas 

8* Louisville (7:30 ET): Michigan has gone from unranked to #4 in the country. It's not just that the Wolverines were unranked to start the season - they were unranked just last week! But a stunning showing at last week's Battle 4 Atlantis, which included wins over Iowa State, North Carolina and Gonzaga, caused Juwan Howard's team to skyrocket into the Top 25. The move matches the biggest jump in the history of the poll as Kansas also went from unranked to #4 back in 1989. 

So now is probably as good a time as any to "sell high" on Michigan. While pollsters aren't always a reliable judge, the fact the Maize and Blue started unranked still means something. Sure, we are all guilty of a misread, but I still wouldn't consider the Wolverines a Top 10 team despite what they pulled off last week. Back in the 1st game of the season, I faded them as they failed to cover against Appalachian State. That's one of just two games Michigan hasn't covered this year. 

Louisville is #1 in the country, by the way! They are the fourth team to occupy the top spot in the season's first five weeks. They moved up to #1 thanks to Duke's stunning loss to Stephen F. Austin last week. Like Michigan, the Cardinals are 7-0. But the difference is that they opened the year ranked #5 in the country. This is Michigan's first "true" road game under Howard, so expect a downturn from the offensive efforts in Atlantis. L'ville is allowing just 36.3% shooting for the year. 8* Louisville

10* Under Suns/Hornets (7:05 ET): My own power ratings indicate there's some value on Phoenix here, but it's hard to trust a team that's lost six of seven and laying points on the road. Especially one as "unproven" as the Suns. This team has shown definitely improvement this year as they are a respectable 8-10 SU. Remember that they have finished in the Western Conference basement each of the last three seasons. Charlotte has the same number of wins as Phoenix, but has lost 13 times and has a very poor point differential (-8.5 PPG). For the sake of comparison, the Suns have actually outscored opponents this season. 

Charlotte gave up 137 points in its last game, so they're not exactly playing well either. But that was against Milwaukee. They're not facing the Bucks again here, which is good because they allowed 30+ pts in every quarter of that game. The Bucks shot 56.2%. Expect better defense tonight from the Hornets. As for the offense, you shouldn't expect much. They are only averaging 105.5 PPG. Just four teams are scoring less than that. 

Phoenix also has struggled defensively its last two times out, giving up an average of 130 PPG. Like Charlotte, five of the Suns' last six games have gone Over the total. These teams also have a history of going Over against one another as that's the way the past NINE head to head meetings have gone. But look for this one to be a little different. Road games see the Suns both scoring and allowing fewer points per game. The Under is 3-0 for them this season when they are on the road and the total is 220+ points. 10* Under Suns/Hornets

10* Toronto (6:05 ET): Despite injuries to multiple key players (Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka), the Raptors keep on winning. They're on six-game win streak entering Sunday when they'll host Utah. While the Jazz are a formidable foe, Toronto has posted the league's third best scoring differential and net efficiency rating, so I have little hesitation in laying this short number at home. Plus they could be getting both Ibaka and Lowry back tonight. 

Utah is in the midst of a tough five-game road trip, one that started w/ losses at Milwaukee and Indiana. They bounced back with a win over lowly Memphis on Friday, but this is now their 4th road game in 7 nights, which isn't exactly a great spot to be in. Especially since the Jazz are just 4-6 SU on the road and averaging 103.1 PPG. Also, Toronto hasn't lost at home this year! They are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, winning by an average of almost 15 PPG! 

Overall, the Raptors are 9-2 ATS when favored this season. They are clearly being undervalued right now because of the injuries. Norman Powell scored a career-high 33 in Friday's 90-83 win over Orlando, so they are getting contributions from a wide variety of players. Pascal Siakam has been another main contributor.  Right now, the Raptors are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Utah actually trailed Memphis by 15 at halftime Friday. This line is just too low as the reigning NBA Champs remain an elite team despite injuries and Kawhi Leonard being gone. 10* Toronto

10* Under Grizzlies/T'Wolves (3:35 ET): While these teams played a high scoring game here in the Twin Cities last month, I'm willing to bank they won't do it again. This is a really high total for Memphis, who stayed Under the only previous game where the total was 230+ points. It was against Houston and they lost 107-100. Twice in the last five games they have failed to even break 100 points. The same can also be said for Minnesota! Take the Under. 

The Grizzlies' last game was a 103-94 loss to Utah. In that game, they were held below 40% shooting and scored only 39 points in the second half. Now it should be noted the Jazz are a good defensive team. But Golden State certainly isn't and Memphis failed to score 100 against them recently. Ja Morant is going to sit this one out due to a back injury, so that's another blow to the Grizzlies' offense. Outside of Morant, there just isn't much consistent scoring for this team. 

Minnesota hasn't played since Wednesday when they won in San Antonio, 113-101. That was the fifth time in six games they went Under. The last four times they've hosted Memphis, the Under is 4-0. The T'wolves have not shot the ball well here at home, making just 42.7% of their field goals including 27.7% on three-point attempts. While they average 118.3 PPG on the road, the T'wolves average only 109.8 PPG on the road. 10* Under Grizzlies/T'wolves

10* Utah State (11:30 ET): I'm not sure I understand this line at all. Utah State is ranked #15 and is one of 31 unbeaten teams left in the country. There really is no objective measure by which one could consider St. Mary's the better team here. The game is at St. Mary's. But last year Utah State won so convincingly on a neutral court (80-63 as 4-point underdogs), the home court advantage doesn't even matter to me. The Aggies have played a weak schedule, save for the win over LSU, but getting to 7-0 w/o stud big man Neemias Queta has to have them happy in Logan. Take the points.

I had USU when the beat LSU. Granted, the win required a shocking comeback as the Aggies trailed by as many as 19 points. But that was a quality non-conference win on a neutral court (Jamaica). This is Utah State's first "true" road game of the season. But the Jamaica trip, which also included a 68-59 win over North Texas, should have them ready. St. Mary's has already lost a home game, as 18-point favorites to Winthrop.

The Aggies have held five of their seven opponents below 60 points. St. Mary's just yielded a season-high 66 in a win over Lehigh last weekend. So in what promises to be a low-scoring game, taking the points seems optimal. Plus, in its first five games, Utah State had four different leading scorers while averaging over 80 PPG. The win over North Texas on Sunday marked the first time this season that the Aggies didn't score at least 80. I had them in a 32-point win over UTSA where they allowed just 28.6% shooting. I like this team quite a bit and feel they're being undervalued. 10* Utah State

10* Over Mavericks/Suns (9:05 ET): With some of the perennial favorites like Golden State and San Antonio declining greatly this year, some space has opened up near the top of the Western Conference pecking order. Dallas and Phoenix may not end up in the top five, but they definitely both qualify as pleasant early season surprises. The Suns more so as it's been a decade since they made the playoffs. They've finished last in the Conference three straight seasons.

Dallas finished second-to-last in 2018-19, though there was a rather sizable 14-game gap between them and Phoenix. They are the better of the two teams here, though when you factor in the home court advantage, I rate this game as a Pick 'em. But it's the total you want to play tonight as it's two of the league's top offensive teams squaring off. The Mavericks are #1 in offensive efficiency with the Suns not far behind at #6. There should be plenty of points scored here.

The crazy thing about Phoenix's improvement is that it's come without former #1 overall draft choice Deandre Ayton, who played in only one game before getting suspended for 25 (failed drug test). But the Suns are averaging 114.8 PPG and 117.3 PPG when at home. The Mavs average 117.9 PPG overall and 121.0 PPG on the road. As you'd expect, Dallas also gives up more on the road (114.3) than at home. But Phoenix allows more points at home (114.2) than on the road. The Over is 8-2 in Phoenix home games with a total of 220 or higher. The Over is 4-0 in Dallas' road games when the total is 220+.  10* Over Mavericks/Suns

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): While Golden State's year-to-year decline may be unlike anything we've ever seen, there are actually TWO Western powers that have fallen off this year. San Antonio is the other and theirs is a case where the oddsmakers have been very slow to react. Betting against the Spurs is very fruitful as their 3-14-1 ATS record happens to be a league worst. Eventually though, you know there will be a point where the market begins to undervalue them. I believe that time is tonight as they are just a small favorite hosting Minnesota. Lay the number here.

Despite currently being 7th in the Western Conference, the T'wolves are a slightly below average team from where I sit. They did just clobber the Hawks down in Atlanta, 125-113, as a 4.5-point favorite. But before that they'd dropped four of five - all of those losses coming at home. They actually trailed by 10 at halftime vs. the Hawks. Like the Spurs, there are legit concerns over Minnesota's defense. They also are allowing 115 PPG, which is a high number. It's strange that the T'wolves are 6-2 SU on the road and just 3-5 SU at home. I don't see their winning ways away from home continuing, however. They are just 9-51 SU all-time here in San Antonio, including 11 straight losses. 

From 11/9 to 11/2, the Spurs were 0-8, the worst ever losing streak under Greg Popovich. They snapped that streak w/ a 111-104 win over the sorry Knicks on Saturday. But then they reverted back to their losing ways Monday against the Lakers. Still, I don't mind that loss and neither did Popovich, who seemed pleased w/ his team's effort against one of the league's best teams. "It was the first game after a long road trip, and that's always tough," said Popovich. "All in all, I was pleased with a lot of things that I saw. We're on the right track." I'll take the coach's word for it. All three Spurs' ATS wins have come as favorites. Minnesota is 0-3-1 ATS off a DD win this year. This is a revenge game for San Antonio as they lost by 15 two weeks ago up in the Twin Cities. 10* San Antonio

10* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Central Michigan enters this game at 5-1, but hasn't yet beaten an opponent of any real substance. Three of the Chippewas' five wins came against non-board teams while the other two were at the expense of Sam Houston State and Miss Valley State. In their only loss, they were blown out at Minnesota 82-57 as 10-pt underdogs. So it easy to see why the oddsmakers would be a little skeptical of them here at DePaul Tuesday night. But my own personal power rankings indicate the spread for this game should be much lower. Take the points. 

DePaul is unbeaten at 6-0 w/ wins over Iowa (were 9.5-pt dogs) and most recently, Boston College. Both Power 5 wins came on the road. This is the Blue Demons' best start in 33 seasons. That 1986-87 team started 16-0 en route to 28-3 and a Sweet 16 appearance. Eventually the accomplishments of that season had to be vacated due to NCAA rules violations, but it was still probably the best DePaul team ever. I'm not ready to put this group on par w/ that one. 

These schools actually just met in March w/ DePaul winning a 1st round CIT matchup 100-86 as 6.5-pt favorites. That game was played right here in Chicago, so as you can see, oddsmakers have definitely boosted the Blue Demons' rating. I remain unconvinced. Central Michigan leads the country in scoring right now (99.7 PPG!) and also turns their opponents over on more than one-quarter of possessions, good for 26th. I know the Chips were held to just 57 by Minnesota, but I don't see that happening again here. They led DePaul 33-21 in the first half of that game last March. One of the Blue Demons' starting guards, Devin Gage, sprained his ankle in practice last week and his status remains in limbo. 10* Central Michigan 

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Certainly, the Nikola Vucevic injury matters for the Magic. He is second on the team in scoring and the leading rebounder. Any time you lose a player that averages a "double-double," it hurts - literally and figuratively. PF Aaron Gordon is also out w/ an ankle injury. so the Magic are really hurting down low. But this line seems like an overreaction. We've recently seen oddsmakers do the same thing w/ the Raptors, who are still winning despite injuries. Orlando is a better team than Detroit and I'll take the points.

With Vucevic and Gordon both out, one thing the Magic can continue to rely on is their defense. They are allowing just 102.9 points per game, the lowest average in the Eastern Conference. Some of that is owed to the fact they play at the slowest pace in the league, in terms of number of possessions per game. But that's also an excellent "underdog strategy" to adopt (playing slow, that is) and should suit them well here. The Magic have yet to win a road game this year, but you have to figure that first one is coming. They only lost by five at Indiana two nights ago. 

Detroit isn't exactly playing well right now either. They've lost six of seven w/ the only win coming against a bad Atlanta team. The Pistons were held to 90 points in a blowout loss to Milwaukee on Saturday, a game which Blake Griffin sat out for rest purposes. Griffin is expected back here, but there are other injuries the team is dealing with. At 5-11 SU, the Pistons aren't a team you can really trust as a favorite. So far, they are 2-4 SU and ATS as chalk. They have just three wins this season by more than four points. 8* Orlando 

10* Butler (7:00 ET): In an amazing coincidence, both Butler and Minnesota are coming off wins over Wofford and Morehead State by a combined 37 points. It doesn't stop there, however. Each team beat Wofford by 19 (Butler 80-61, Missouri 75-56) and Morehead State by 18 (Butler 68-50, Missouri 70-52)! Butler won its first two games by a combined 59 pts, beating IUPUI 80-47 and New Orleans 79-53. Missouri won its first two games by a combined 55 points, beating Incarnate Word 82-42 and Northern Kentucky 71-56! 

The only difference then is that Butler has a win over a major conference team, 64-56 against Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite. Missouri lost by five at Xavier as a 5.5-pt underdog. Each of those games saw the ATS result decided by one-half point. So it seems like a pretty even battle tonight in Kansas City as part of the Hall of Fame Classic. But I've got Butler rated as the better team by a few points. I like them as an underdog. 

Both teams have been excellent defensively. Missouri actually ranks #6 in the country right now in defensive efficiency. No opponent has shot above 38.0% against the Tigers. But four of the five opponents were likely to anyway. Butler has the edge offensively in this matchup. They have four players averaging double figures. Missouri had only two players in double figures in their last game. Through the years, Butler has excelled in these neutral court games, going 77-43 ATS. 10* Butler

10* Over Nets/Knicks (6:05 ET): Brooklyn isn’t exactly the safest bet in the NBA right now, but they have to be excited about the prospect of catching the Knicks in the second night of a back to back on Sunday. Here at MSG, the Knicks lost last night to the Spurs, 111-104 as 2.5-pt underdogs. That final score also just barely stayed Under the total. Speaking of going Under, that’s what the last five matchups between these teams have done. Not this one though. Take the Over.

It was a much higher O/U line when these area rivals met on 10.25, the second game of the year for both teams. The Nets won that game 113-109, a final score that would mean an Over tonight. But the number was 229 last month. When looking at tonight’s O/U line, that’s quite a change. Kyrie Irving being out is probably the reason for the big decrease. But Brooklyn isn’t good defensively, especially on the road where they give up 118.7 PPG. The Knicks have an even lower defensive efficiency rating. 

The Nets have gone Under in each of their last three games. But even without Irving, they still managed to score 116 points two nights ago against the Kings. The Nets last two games were both at home and they turned in much better defensive efforts than we’re accustomed to seeing from them. My sense is they’ll regress defensively out on the road. The Nets are still playing at one of the five fastest tempos in the league. The Knicks let San Antonio shoot 53.3% overall last night and 52.2% from three-point range. 10* Over Nets/Knicks

10* Under Portland St/San Jose St (10:00 ET): San Jose State's athletic department is one of the more beleaguered in the country right now, at least among schools that have D-I football and basketball programs. There's no scandal here; the teams are simply bad. Last year's hoops team finished 4-27 SU! The good news is this year's squad is already one win away from matching that win total! Tonight, the 3-2 Spartans host a Portland State team still smarting off a loss to an area rival. Take the Under. 

Portland State hails from the Big Sky. But the non-conference game they lost on Wednesday to Portland will sting as much any loss the Vikings suffer the rest of this season. Not only did they struggle to make shots (40.9 FG%), especially from three-point range (4 of 22), but they let the opponent shoot 52.8% overall. All three PSU games where you could have bet the total have now gone Over. But it's important to note the Vikings' shooting struggles are not necessarily confined to just that last game. 

So far this year, Portland State is shooting just 28.8% from three-point range. San Jose State is actually worse at 27.0%. Remember that the three-point line was moved back in College Basketball this year and I expect teams across the country to now struggle in that area. Speaking of struggling to shoot, Portland State made only 40% of its shots in two previous road games (Indiana, Hawaii). SJSU has had two games this year where they scored only 57 (against Portland) and 39 points. 10* Under Portland State/San Jose State

10* Over Bulls/Hornets (7:05 ET): Both teams played last night and lost. Chicago fell to Miami, 116-108 at home, while Charlotte dropped a 125-118 decision in Washington. Seven of the last eight times these teams have played, the game has gone Over. That includes three straight. They opened the season against one another here in the Queen City and the Hornets won a wild 126-125 game. Despite that score, we're basically getting the same O/U line. Go Over. 

The Hornets are not a good defensive team. They are bottom six in efficiency. They just allowed the Wizards, who aren't a good team, to shoot 52%. Speaking of efficiency, Charlotte was a lot more efficient offensively than Chicago in that first meeting. They won despite taking 17 less shots. The key was going 23 of 44 from three-point range. Not sure that's a sustainable blueprint, but the Hornets should score a decent number tonight. They average 110 PPG at home.

Chicago has not shot the ball well so far this season, but this is a matchup where they can change that. The Bulls fell behind Miami big last night, but made a game of it late w/ a 41-point 4th quarter. They're playing at a pretty fast tempo this year, which helps because they haven't been all that efficient on the offensive end. They've scored at least 108 in five of their last six games. This just seems like a low total for two teams that both went Over last night. 10* Over Bulls/Hornets

8* Memphis (1:00 ET): The Tigers were a team I expected to have on my "overrated" list this year, but the James Wiseman suspension has actually created a situation where they're now underrated. Penny Hardaway's team may have only managed to beat Arkansas Little-Rock by 10 points, but my suspicion is we will be getting an 'A effort' here. Saturday afternoon finds them hosting an unbeaten Ole Miss team that has yet to play a road game. Lay the (very) short number.

Ole Miss' four victories this season have all come by double digits. While that may sound impressive, it's less so when you consider the Rebels were favorites of at least 18.5 points in every game. They've looked good defensively, but have yet to face a team as talented as Memphis. The last two seasons have seen the Rebels go just 7-15 in "true" road games. They've also lost 23 of 29 as underdogs. I don't expect Blake Hinson to be that much of a factor today in his season debut.

Memphis is a talented team even w/o Wiseman and I expect them to show that here. They did not shoot particularly well against Little Rock, making only 38.7% of their field goal attempts, including 23.8% from three-point range. Yet they still won by 10. I think that bodes well moving forward as you can expect the Tigers to have better shooting nights. This is a chance for them to show that they remain a force, even when Wiseman is sidelined. The team has covered five straight times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 8* Memphis 

10* Under Rockets/Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers finally got Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the court at the same time Wednesday. The result was exactly what they'd hoped for, a 107-104 triumph over a good Boston team. But it wasn't all "wine and roses" as they turned it over 23 times, 10 of those coming from their aforementioned All-Star duo. Also of note is that the game stayed Under despite going into overtime. The Clippers have been going Under a lot lately (9-3 L12 games) as have the Rockets (9-2 L11), who are the opposition tonight. Look for another Under. 

I had the Under in Houston's last game, which ended up being a 105-95 loss to Denver. That was pretty easily the Rockets' lowest scoring game all year (1st time being held below 100 pts) and James Harden (the NBA's leading scorer at 38.4 PPG) saw his streak of eight straight games w/ 30+ pts come to an end as he "only" scored 27. As a team, the Rockets shot just 12 of 38 from three-point range. It would be easy to say Harden and the rest of the team will have a bounce back game here, but the Clippers are a strong defensive team, made even stronger now that both Leonard and George are playing.

We saw what the Clips are capable of defensively on Wednesday when they held Boston to just 39.4% shooting. A major reason for the excitement over the Leonard-George pairing is what the duo brings on the defensive end. But truthfully, LA was already a strong defensive team as they've now held six of their last seven opponent under 40% shooting including the last three. They are allowing 100.0 PPG on the nose here at home. But they've also failed to top 100 in regulation in B2B games. Something else that's under the radar is the fact Houston has held its last five opponents to an average of just 102.6 PPG. 10* Under Rockets/Clippers 

10* Cleveland (8:35 ET): After a surprisingly decent start to the season (4-5 SU first 10 games), the Cavs have lost five in a row while failing to cover the spread in the last four. There's really nothing "out of the ordinary" to help explain the skid, although they have faced both Philadelphia and Miami twice. Those are two of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Tonight, the Cavs face one of the more improved teams out West, Dallas. While it may seem like the underdog is "up against it" here, it's a lot of points they're getting and we've already seen the Mavs lose outright once (to the Knicks) as a favorite of this size. In fact, the Mavs lost twice to the Knicks this year! Take the points. 

Dallas certainly was NOT upset in its last game as they crushed Golden State by 48. That was easily their biggest MOV of the season and their third straight win/cover to boot. Of course, beating the Warriors doesn't mean what it used to as they've been decimated by injuries It's hard to type this, but the Dubs are the worst team in the league right now! The Mavs led 44-16 by the end of the 1st quarter, Luka Doncic had 33 pts by halftime and the team ended up shooting 57.9% from three-point range. Needless to say, it's highly unlikely that they'll play that well again the rest of the season.

A win like that is going to catch the eye of the oddsmakers, however. Thus, Dallas is a DD favorite for just the third time all year. The first was an outright loss to the Knicks. The other was the Golden State game. Those are obviously very different results. Dallas is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite and 0-2 ATS when coming off a DD win though. The Cavs get Tristan Thompson back tonight (sat out last game) and I expect this to go much differently than when the teams met in Cleveland earlier this month. This is all about fading a team that's off a performance it cannot possibly match. 10* Cleveland

10* Utah State (7:00 ET): This will be my second time taking Utah State this week, although this time the competition is a whole lot stiffer and they're down in Jamaica. On Monday, the Aggies (ranked #14 in the country) blew out an overmatched UTSA team 82-50 to move to 5-0 on the year. Now they face LSU, who will be the most challenging opponent to date. But USU should be up for said challenge. Like I said Monday, this team is absolutely worthy of its ranking. They deserve to be favored by more than this as it's the names of the front of the jerseys giving us value here. 

LSU drubbed MD-Baltimore County in its last game, 77-50 as a 17.5-pt favorite. But that was a game where the Tigers benefited from some atrocious shooting by the opposition as the Retrievers made only 5 of 33 three-point attempts. They can't rely on that happening again tonight as Utah State is shooting very well (48.7%) on its way to averaging 86 PPG. Now the competition hasn't been that tough for the Aggies so far. But this is still the 1st time since the 1986-87 season that they have scored 80+ points in their first five games. They are 21-10 SU the L3 seasons after scoring 80+ in their previous game.

LSU actually trailed UMBC early due to the fact they didn't make a single basket in the first 7:10 of the game! They would eventually overwhelm the Retrievers with their size, but that won't happen here. The Tigers don't shoot well from 3-pt range (28.6%) and turnovers have been an issue so far as well (especially in the loss to VCU). Utah State has had four different players lead the team in scoring these first five games while holding the last four opponents all below 40% shooting. They are the superior side in this one and that's not fully reflected in this line. 10* Utah State

8* UMBC (2:00 ET): UMBC is basically the "Appalachian State of College Hoops" in the sense that the program will always be associated w/ one famous upset. It was 20 months ago that the Retrievers did the unthinkable as they became the first 16-seed to ever beat a 1-seed, doing so at Virginia's expense. That upset is all the more remarkable considering Virginia bounced back and won the National Championship last season. In case you're wondering how UMBC did last season, they went 21-13 overall (11-5 in the America East), but did not qualify for the NCAA Tourney. 

This year, the Retrievers have started 4-1. The one loss came Tuesday at LSU, in emphatic fashion as the final score was 77-50. UMBC shot just 31.1% in the contest, basically giving them no chance against a team with superior athletes and size. Though it should be mentioned the Retrievers actually did enjoy an early 16-10 advantage. They held LSU w/o a field goal for the first 7:10 of the game! That they still lost by 27 shows how quickly things fell apart. Now it's on to Jamaica for a tournament and the 1st round opponent is undefeated Eastern Michigan (4-0). 

Like UMBC, Eastern Michigan started its season by playing several non-DI schools. All were double digit wins (by 13 or more), but nothing can really be ascertained from those. Then the Eagles did pull an upset last Saturday in Denton, beating North Texas 56-51 as a nine-point underdog. But don't let that fool you, UMBC is still the better team here. The Retrievers were 5 of 33 from three-point range against LSU, which won't be happening again, and they do a good job at forcing turnovers. EMU does not have the length of an LSU, which bothered the UMBC shooters so much in the last game. 8* UMBC

8* Appalachian State (7:00 ET): An outright win here by Charlotte would make it three straight upsets for them and I don't see that happening. The last two games have seen the 49ers beat Davidson 71-58 (+10) and Wake Forest 67-65 (+2), but both of those upsets took place at home. The team's only prior road trip resulted in a five-point loss to James Madison (the season opener). App State has played twice the number of games (6) as had Charlotte and after an ugly performance Monday at UNC-Greensboro, they'll be eager to bounce back. Lay the short number.

These two Tar Heel State schools are separated by less than 120 miles and they've met rather regularly through the years. This will be the 1st matchup since 2016, but also the 10th since 2001. Charlotte has taken the previous four, but none of the players from that last meeting are still around and the coaching staffs are different as well. Sunday's win over Wake Forest, which required overtime, makes the 49ers prone to a letdown here. The win snapped a 13-game losing streak to ACC opponents. The team has still lost 22 of its last 27 road games. 

Appalachian State is battle-tested in its own right as they just played a mini-Tournament in Greensboro. Things didn't end well w/ a dreadful shooting night (29.1 FG%) against the hosts, but the Mountaineers did hold UNC Greensboro to 32.1% shooting as well. Since losing the season opener to Michigan (a game where we cashed plus the points), ASU has not allowed more than 62 pts in any game. Having also dropped their most recent home game (last Friday), there will be no shortage of motivation for the home team tonight. 8* Appalachian State

8* Washington State (7:00 ET): Omaha is not only playing its third straight road game, but also its second in three days and it's a long trip from Dayton, OH (where they were Tuesday) to Pullman, WA. Seeing as the Mavericks have dropped all three road games this year - by an average of 18 PPG - it's pretty difficult to like their chances here tonight. Washington State has shown signs of improvement following the dreadful 11-21 campaign last season. This is one of those games the Cougars will need to take advantage of, as they figure to be an underdog most nights this season. 

Wazzu's season started w/ a 31-point win over Seattle here in Pullman. Then, it was an ugly shooting night at Santa Clara, a game they lost 70-62. It was a six-minute stretch in the second half - where they were 0 of 8 from the field - that killed their chances there. While the Cougars did not cover against Idaho State in their return home Sunday, they did at least turn in another solid defensive effort, holding the Bengals to 61 points. An injury to PG Jaylen Shead isn't great, but this is arguably the weakest opponent that WSU will face all season. 

 Omaha did not defend well against Dayton, allowing the Flyers to shoot almost 58% for the entire game. It was their second straight game allowing 80 or more points. In addition, the Mavericks have not shot the ball well on the road this year, averaging just 40% from the field. 1st year HC Kyle Smith has a deep team here in Pullman as eight players are averaging double digit minutes. So the Shead injury may not be that big of a deal. CJ Elleby is still the team leader in points at 20.0 per game. The home team certainly has enough to win this game by a comfortable margin. 8* Washington State

8* Towson (7:00 ET): This is a live dog we've got on our hands Thursday and not just because Xavier comes in at 0-4 ATS. Towson just played Florida really tough (lost by only 6 in Gainesvile) and despite what the pollsters have to say about it, we believe the Gators are a better team than the Musketeers. Xavier might be #18 in the AP Top 25 right now, but they don't even make the Top 45 in our own power rankings. Among the teams currently in the Top 25, the Musketeers appear to be the most overrated. Definitely take the points in this 1st Rd matchup of the Charleston Classic. 

While Xavier is 0-4 ATS, they are also 4-0 straight up and that's the record the coaching staff cares about. Still, the last two games have been very tight as they beat Missouri by five in overtime and then Missouri State by only three. Though Missouri State is the preseason favorite to win the MVC, it was a game the Musketeers were expected to win by 13.5 points. The Bears' 1-3-1 zone defense gave Xavier all sorts of fits as they could only make 5 of 22 three-point attempts. But three-point woes were not new for this team. They were 3 of 21 from behind the arc against Missouri and are shooting just 20.6% there for the year. Remember the line was moved back this year. Xavier is clearly struggling to adjust. 

Towson has permitted its first four opponents to shoot just 27.3% from behind the 3-pt arc, so expect those Xavier struggles to continue. Towson led Florida with just 5:46 remaining before going cold from the field. I know the tendency is to view the Gators as a disappointing team right now, but they came into the year ranked #6 in the country! Towson may only be 2-2 SU, but those two losses were by a total of 10 points. They've had a different leading scorer in each game. 8* Towson

10* Under Rockets/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Two of the best teams from the West square off in the thin air of Denver on Wednesday night. The Rockets' resurgence is one of the big stories in the league right now as they have won and covered eight straight games. That after starting the year 0-6 ATS. Denver has won six of seven, their only loss coming in a game where they were 10-point home favorites over Atlanta. While both teams scored a ton in their last games, it won't be that easy this time around. Take the Under. 

Houston scored 132 pts in a win over Portland Monday. While they didn't shoot the lights out, James Harden finished w/ 36 points and Russell Westbrook had 28 plus a triple double. It was the Rockets' second straight game scoring at least 125. But prior to Monday, they'd gone Under in five straight games. The Under is 6-1 in all of their road games. Harden is the NBA's leading scorer at 39.2 PPG and has gone over 30 in eight straight. But he's probably due for an "off night" at some point. Denver is allowing opponents to shoot just 42.9% at home and Houston is 25-11 Under as an underdog the L3 seasons. 

The Nuggets are 9-3 Under in all of their games so far. Not only are they limiting the opposition's field goal percentage, they aren't shooting so well themselves. For the season, Denver is at 44.0%. They average 106.9 PPG. Don't look for them to come close to the 55% shooting we saw vs. Memphis or the 131 points scored in that game. What's impressive is the Nuggets holding half their opponents below 100 points. They are 3rd in the West in points allowed and 7th overall in defensive efficiency. Look for this game to be bit lower scoring than what's expected. 10* Under Rockets/Nuggets

10* Memphis (8:00 ET): I have to say, coming into the year, Memphis figured to be more of a fade for me than a take. But with a loss (to Oregon) already on their resume and this whole James Wiseman debacle playing out, might the Tigers actually now be (gasp) underrated? Penny Hardaway's team rebounded nicely from that loss to Oregon by blowing out SWAC member Alcorn State, 102-56. That was their first game w/o Wiseman, who has been ruled ineligible by the NCAA. As we saw against Alcorn State, this can be a good team even w/ Wiseman sidelined. Lay the points here. 

Now Arkansas Little-Rock is no Alcorn State. The Trojans can be a competitive team as they've shown Memphis in the past. Over the last six meetings, ALR is 5-1 ATS even though they've lost every game straight up. The last two years have seen them fall by 8 and 10 points. Both times they were getting 14 from the oddsmakers. Already this year, the Trojans have pulled one upset, winning 67-66 at Missouri State as a 12.5-point dog. They also covered at Illinois State, their only SU loss. But this game is obviously a big step up in class from previous opponents. 

It should be pointed out that Memphis' loss to Oregon was a de facto road game (played in Portland). So there was no shame in losing there. This is clearly a talented team w/o Wiseman and I expect that to show Wednesday night. Something that Little Rock does NOT do well is shoot the three. They are hitting just 26.9% from behind the arc, which simply won't cut it in a game like this. The only concern w/ Memphis is FT shooting, but they should have a big enough edge here that won't matter. 10* Memphis

10* Orlando (7:35 ET): Well, I tried fading Toronto on Monday and that went about as poorly as possible. What was a close game at halftime quickly turned into a 132-96 blowout of Charlotte. For Orlando, this will be their second try "North of the Border" this year as they lost here 104-95 as a 4.5-pt dog back on October 28th. I'll also go w/ a second try fading the Raptors as their two key injuries (Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka) are bound to catch up w/ them. Take the points. 

 After a slow start, the Magic have played much better of late. They come into this game on a three-game winning streak. All three victories have seen the team score at least 111 points as they've now hit triple digits in six straight. That's significant because they failed to score 100 in any of their first seven games this year (2-5 SU). Since then, they're 4-2 SU. Defense has not been an issue for Orlando as they lead the Eastern Conference in points allowed at 101.5 per game. 

The last time these teams met, the Magic's leading scorer Nikola Vucevic was held to just five points on 1 of 13 shooting. Vucevic has since been named Eastern Conference Player of the Week. He's delivered seven straight double doubles and posted season-highs in both points (30) and rebounds (17) on Sunday vs. Washington. Much will be made of the fact Orlando is 0-4 on the road while Toronto is 5-0 at home. But those injuries to Lowry and Ibaka will take their toll on the Raptors. Against Charlotte, they got career best point totals from two players, OG Anunoby and Terence Davis II. That isn't likely to repeat itself. The Magic have lost five straight to the Raptors going back to LY's 1st round playoff exit. They want revenge. 10* Orlando

10* Under Suns/Kings (10:05 ET): The Suns and Kings have been two of the best bets in the NBA this season. Given the respective struggles of the two franchises over the last decade, that's not something I anticipated writing. Phoenix enters at 9-3 vs. the number (best ATS record in the league) while Sacramento has covered every game in November (7-0 ATS) following an 0-5 ATS October. Something will have to give here. But it's the total I'm more interested in tonight. 

The fact that both teams have been playing short-handed makes their respective ATS success all the more surprising. The Suns are w/o last year's #1 overall DC DeAndre Ayton, who got hit w/ a 25-game suspension for failing a drug test. That suspension occurred pretty early in the season (Ayton played just ONE game), yet initially Phoenix showed no ill-effects. After seven games, the team was 5-2 SU and a perfect 7-0 ATS. They are now 7-5 SU/9-3 ATS. The one game Ayton played in was against these Kings and he scored 18 pts on 9 of 14 shooting. The team scored 124 points in a rout, but I don't suspect that will be happening again tonight. 

Also hurting the Suns here is the fact they played last night. They lost 99-85 at home to Boston in what was pretty easily their lowest scoring game of the year. That result snapped a 5-game Over streak as well. Now the Celtics are one of the league's top defensive teams. But surprisingly, Sacramento has kept its last three opponents all below 100 pts. All three games stayed Under. It must be mentioned that the Kings are playing w/o De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III, so it's going to be a struggle for them to score moving forward. Buddy Hield had a season-best 35 points w/ seven three-pointers made vs. Boston on Sunday, something I do not see him doing again here. 10* Under Suns/Kings

10* New Mexico (9:00 ET): This battle of unbeatens finds New Mexico departing campus for the first time, but it won't be a long trip for the Lobos as they head to El Paso to face annual rival UTEP. This will be the fourth season in a row these schools are playing and while the home team is 3-0 SU, it has been the Miners leaving w/ the cash on every occasion. But compared to last year, this number has changed dramatically as UTEP was a 16-pt dog when it covered LY in Albuquerque (lost 84-78). They are 8-1-1 ATS the L10 meetings w/ UNM, but this could be the first time since '99 that they go off as the favorite. 

New Mexico's four wins have not only all come at home, but they've all been by double digits. The most recent was a 90-80 triumph against McNeese State on Sunday in spite of allowing 50.9% shooting. In the first three games, the Lobos never allowed higher than 44.4% shooting. At the same time, they've scored at least 90 in every contest. In three of the four games, they've had five players finish in double figures. This is a good team. 

UTEP has held its first three overmatched opponents to an average of 59.0 PPG. They did defeat a New Mexico State team who is awaiting on deck for New Mexico. The Miners were 2.5-pt home underdogs in that game, which they won 65-50. Their other two wins came against non-DI opponents.  There has been one common opponent for these two teams, that being Eastern New Mexico, whom New Mexico defeated by 21 and UTEP beat by 14. I simply feel that the better team here is the one that opened as an underdog. Don't be surprised if this number "jumps the fence" prior to tipoff. 10* New Mexico

8* Utah State (9:00 ET): Utah State deserves to be ranked #17 in the country as they have dominated all four of their games so far. This was an NCAA Tournament team last year as they won 28 games and the Mountain West. Four of the five starters from that team are back for 2019-20. Keep in mind that sophomore center Neemias Queta has yet to suit up this season due to a knee injury. The Aggies have had a different leading scorer in every game thus far. 

UTSA's start to the year couldn't be more opposite of what we've seen from Utah State. The Roadrunners are 0-4 and have failed to cover every game. Every loss has been by double digits and what's really shocking is that they were favored to win three of the four games. They haven't played since last Sunday when they lost at home to Delaware, 91-79. So you know UTSA is going to be ready coming into this one. The problem is they simply aren't on Utah State's level. 

There is a chance Quete could play here (listed as questionable), but even if he doesn't, the Aggies have shown they can do just fine w/o him. They've scored at least 81 pts in every game, all of them having taken place here in Logan. Since only beating Montana State by eight in the season opener, they've won by 55, 41 and 27 points. Still I'm not sure if the oddsmakers have properly accounted for how good this team is just yet. UTSA's shooting has been exceptionally poor thus far and USU is allowing an overall FG% of just 35.0. On the flip side, UTSA has also really struggled to defend and USU has shot 55% of better twice in the L3 games. 8* Utah State

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Generous number here for Hornets team that has won two in a row. Sure, both wins were razor-thin as they beat the Pistons by three and the Knicks by one. But that doesn't mean they can't stick w/ the defending NBA Champs, who are severely hampered by injuries right now, the most notable being the one to Kyle Lowry's thumb that has him out indefinitely. Serge Ibaka is also out w/ an ankle injury. Without those two key players, the Raptors should not be favored by this many points.

Not much was expected from Charlotte this season due to Kemba Walker leaving for Boston. So them being 6-7 SU is somewhat of a surprise. All six wins have come by 7 pts or less, four of those by 3 pts or less. So eventually they will regress. But with the exception of a few games, they've been competitive with everybody. The L3 games have all been decided in the closing seconds. They're a solid 7-4 ATS as underdogs and 5-1 ATS on the road. 

This play is probably more of a fade on Toronto than anything else. The Raptors, specifically Pascal Siakam, showed signs of wearing down in Saturday's 110-102 loss to the Mavericks. Siakam, who has had to carry the scoring burden w/ Lowry out, scored just 15 pts on 6 of 24 shooting in that last game. On average, Raptors' home games have been pretty high scoring so far. But they probably won't maintain the offensive efficiency due to the injuries. At the defensive end, giving up 112.5 PPG at home is concerning. 8* Charlotte

10* Atlanta (9:35 ET): This West Coast swing is not going well for the Hawks as they've lost three of the first four games. Things went from bad to worse last night as they gave up 150 points to the Clippers. The road trip ends tonight, but at least the Hawks don't have to go anywhere as they're back at Staples Center, this time to face the Lakers. Given how LeBron James and company have looked so far, this isn't exactly what I'd call a "great spot" for the visitors. But they are getting a lot of points against a team that doesn't have that many double digit wins this year. Take the points. 

For what it's worth, sharp money seemed like it was on the Hawks last night. The number was bet down considerably as they closed as nine-point dogs after opening +13. Obviously, that was a bad read (we didn't take them), but it does show that savvy bettors do seem to have more faith in this team than the oddsmakers. Chalk last night up to "one of those games" as the Hawks shot horrifically (37.8%) while allowing the Clippers to shoot 53.8% overall and 51.5% from three-point range. They probably won't have a worse loss all season. 

The Lakers come in red hot as they've gone 10-1 their L11 games. But they could only beat Sacramento by two on Friday, a game they were favored to win by 10.5 points. LA trailed by 10 after the first quarter and from there it was a scramble just to earn a SU win. The Kings went undermanned into that game, so there is hope for the Hawks here. Their stock could not possibly be lower coming off a loss like the one they suffered last night, so we will "buy low" and take the points. 10* Atlanta 

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): It appears as if the oddsmakers won't be letting off the Bucks "quite as easy" this year. Last season, the Bucks made the "quantum leap" into the NBA's elite by winning 60 regular season games and posting the best ATS record in the league. By any account, this season is off to a successful start as the team is 8-3 SU and won six of its last seven games while leading the league in scoring (120.3 PPG). But they're 0-4 ATS the L4 games. Look for that streak to end tonight as the Bucks catch Indiana playing in the second night of a back to back. Lay the points. 

Indiana lost to Houston last night, 111-102, despite limiting the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting, including 14 of 46 from three-point range. The Pacers' own shooting was their undoing as they made just 24.2% from behind the three-point line. It was only the second loss in nine games for Indiana, the other coming by two points (in OT) at Charlotte. But my guess is they won't do as good a job at defending the three-point line tonight as they did against the Rockets. That means trouble when facing a team as prolific as Milwaukee. 

The Bucks are 4th in the league in three-point makes (13.9 per game) and 2nd in attempts (41.2 per game). Overall, they are shooting 47.3% from the floor and rank 2nd in offensive efficiency. They're also a very respectable 7th in defensive efficiency after leading the league in that department last season. The Bucks are rested and seven of their eight wins have been by at least five points. 10* Milwaukee

10* La Tech (6:00 ET): Off to a 2-0 start, Louisiana Tech is about to be tested for the 1st time as they pay a visit to Creighton. The Bulldogs have won both games by 33+ points and are averaging 90.0 PPG on better than 50% shooting. They held Texas A&M-CC and Wiley College to just 31% from the floor. While such wins really don't tell you a lot about a team, I feel that the contingent from Ruston makes for a LIVE underdog tonight. They are catching Creighton in a bad spot. Take the points. 

Creighton just lost to Michigan on Tuesday, 79-69 as 5.5-point dogs. They did lead at halftime, but couldn't slow down the Wolverines in the 2nd half. The Bluejays ended up allowing a 56.6 FG% for the game and that simply isn't going to cut it against a La Tech that's shot the lights out so far. Guarding the three-point line wasn't as easy against Michigan as it was vs. Kennesaw State (who went 3 for 20) and that could be a sign of things to come here. 

It's not easy winning here in Omaha where Creighton has gone 30-8 SU its L38 games. But the Bluejays are also 0-3 ATS the L3 times they've been asked to lay between 9.5 and 12 points on their own floor. Incredibly, they are also just 3 for 10 from FT line in two games! They don't have a single starter taller than 6'7". Despite grabbing 18 offensive rebounds against Michigan, they got only 13 pts off them, a shocking lack of efficiency. La Tech is an explosive offensive team that is great at forcing turnovers and this game will be a nice way to make it up to the fine folks in Ruston still angry about last night's loss on the football field. 10* La Tech

10* Under T'Woves/Wizards (8:05 ET): This is one of the highest totals we've seen so far this NBA season and it's not without merit. Washington is coming off a game in which it lost 140-133 (but still covered - I had them). Minnesota, who has gone Over in six of its last seven games, just hung 129 points on San Antonio in a win Wednesday night. This is definitely the highest O/U line either team has seen so far and it could end up challenging for the highest O/U line for any NBA game this season. Take the Under. 

This is already the second meeting of the year between these teams. Back on November 2nd, the T'wolves went to the Nation's capital and prevailed 131-109. That score is yet another reason this total is so high. Minnesota had 70 points at halftime and coasted to their largest margin of victory and highest scoring game all season. Washington didn't even shoot that well as they finished the game at 38.9% from the field. But my guess is the T'wolves are not going to be as deadly on the offensive end here compared to that first meeting. 

Note Washington had actually gone Under in three straight before the wild game in Boston Wednesday night. Coming in off four days rest, they shot 52.6% against the Celtics, which is pretty remarkable given the kind of defense Boston has played this year. The Wiz don't have the luxury of having that much rest coming into tonight. They've shot better than 50% in only two games all season. The remarkable thing about Minnesota's stretch of scoring is they aren't shooting the ball well at all this year! Especially at home where they are at 41.1% including an unsightly 25.6% from three-point range. 10* Under T'wolves/Wizards

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): These teams seem to be going in different directions of late. The Spurs actually opened 3-0, but failed to cover the spread in all three games. That was a pretty clear signal that they might be overrated and sure enough, they have since lost six of eight. Three straight losses where they failed to cover the spread every time now have them at 2-9 ATS on the year, which is the league's worst record at the betting window. Unlike previous editions under HC Greg Popovich, this Spurs team is terrible defensively as it ranks 24th in efficiency. Lay the points w/ Orlando here. 

The Magic's season started out poorly as they lost six of their first eight games and failed to break 100 points in any of the first seven. But they've since collected a couple wins, including an impressive 112-97 victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday. That was their second highest scoring game of the year as seven players finished in double figures. Meanwhile, defense has not been an issue. They are 1st in the NBA in points allowed, giving up just 99.1 PPG. They are even stingier here at home where the average drops to 96.3 PPG allowed. 

I look for Orlando to take advantage of San Antonio's recent defensive decline tonight. The Spurs' most recent loss, which was at Minnesota Wednesday night, marked the third time this season they've allowed 120+ points. It was also the second time they've allowed that many in the last three games. The last five San Antonio opponents have combined to shoot 50.2% from the field. So, if the Magic can take advantage of that and play their trademark defense, this should be a pretty easy victory. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS against the Eastern Conference. 10* Orlando 

8* Denver (10:35 ET): With Kyrie Irving's status in limbo (questionable w/ shoulder injury), this is a good time to play against the already struggling Nets. They'll definitely be w/o Caris LeVert, who has a right thumb sprain. Tonight's game in Denver comes on the heels of Brooklyn blowing a double digit lead in Utah two nights ago, a game they ended up losing 119-114. This has simply not been a good team thus far and they're playing their 4th consecutive game out West in a seven-day span. Lay the points. 

Denver is also in off a loss, although theirs was less concerning to me. Now the numbers do indicate a poor defensive effort took place against Atlanta on Tuesday. The Hawks scored 125 points w/ 42 of them coming from Trae Young (his season-high) and shot 53% overall, including 15 of 34 (44.1%) from 3-pt range. It was the most points allowed by the Nuggets this season and it came in a game they initially led 12-0. With one of the stronger home court advantages in the league, I expect nothing short of a full bounce back effort by Michael Malone's club. 

Brooklyn has just one road win all year and it came at the start of this trip, in Portland. Since then, they've been blitzed by Phoenix (allowed 138 pts) and blew the DD lead in Utah. The Nets have been just terrible defensively as they allow 121.4 PPG, second most in the league. This does not seem like the spot where they will fix that issue. Then to make matters worse, the offense is set to suffer w/o LeVert and possibly Irving. Prior to the Atlanta game, the Nuggets had held four straight opponents under 100 points. They are 6th in the league in defensive efficiency while Brooklyn is 26th. 8* Denver 

10* BYU (9:00 ET): BYU lost as a four-point favorite in its last game, falling to San Diego State 76-71 on Saturday. That same day, Southern Utah pulled off what will likely end up being the highlight of their season, a 79-78 upset of Nebraska where they rallied back from a double digit deficit in the second half. Those results set us up very nicely for a play on BYU here. Yes, the Cougars are a little short-handed right now (Yoeli Childs suspended). But they still led SDSU for much of the second half. It was a game they still should have won. Look for them to take out their frustrations tonight. Lay the points. 

Southern Utah trailed Nebraska by 11 at halftime and was down by as many as 14 early in the second half. The Thunderbirds made their shocking comeback thanks to some terrible Nebraska shooting down the stretch. The Cornhuskers finished the game at 37.0% overall and 19.2% from three-point range. Surprisingly, SUU was even worse from behind the arc. But they still earned their 1st win over a power conference program since 2003. They needed double overtime to do so as Cameron Oluyitan sank a 10-ft jumper w/ just two seconds left to give his team the upset win (were 7-pt underdogs). 

Though the schools have not met since 2007, BYU has dominated this in-state rivalry, winning 9 straight times from 99-07. Eight of the nine wins have been by double digits. As mentioned above, while Southern Utah had to come from behind to earn its latest victory, BYU "came from ahead" in its latest loss. Despite trailing at halftime, the Cougars were up eight w/ just under 13 minutes remaining. They were up seven w/ just over six minutes left. Playing at home, it's a game they should have won. Though part of the Maui Invitational, this game is being played in Provo and I don't see BYU suffering B2B home defeats. 10* BYU

8* Washington (7:35 ET): Despite being 8-1 SU and 1st in the Eastern Conference, Boston appears quite vulnerable going into tonight's home game vs. Washington. Winners of eight in a row, the Celtics have been "bit" by the injury bug. Gordon Hayward is out indefinitely after breaking his hand against the Spurs over the weekend. Big man Daniel Theis will join him on the bench w/ a sprained finger. Kemba Walker, who is the team's leading scorer, had to leave the last game w/ a case of whiplash. While Walker has been cleared to play tonight, I'm still taking the points in this matchup. 

If Washington can't compete here, then it's going to be a very LONG season. Honestly, it'll probably be a long season in the Nation's capital regardless, but this is a spot where the team should be ready to go. Coming off B2B losses, the Wizards have had the last four days off. That's a lot of time in between games, even with the "new" NBA schedule. The only other time this season that the Wiz took the floor w/ three or more days was the insane game vs. Houston (159-158 loss) where they did cover. They are 7-4 SU/ATS the L3 season w/ 3+ days rest. 

Though Walker seems like he's going to play, the Celtics are still short-handed and eventually that's going to catch up to them. The team shot 42.9% from three-point range against Dallas Monday, a percentage I don't believe is sustainable for them. Then again, Jayson Tatum shot 1 for 18 from the field in that game! But it was Walker bailing them out by scoring 24 of his team-high 29 pts in the 2nd half. They can't succeed like that every game though. Washington's leading scorer Bradley Beal had an off-night vs. Cleveland on Friday, missing 13 of 21 shots. He'll shoot better here. Despite being 2-6 SU, the Wizards are only being outscored by 4.1 PPG. 8* Washington

8* New Mexico State (8:00 ET): This "border war" rounds out today's deep dive. Las Cruces and El Paso aren't too far away on the map, but I feel the schools hailing from those corresponding cities are a lot further apart than what the oddsmakers seem to think. New Mexico State has beaten UTEP nine straight times, including a four-point win here in El Paso last season. The number is lower for this year's visit and I'm not sure why as the teams are about the same. Lay the points. 

New Mexico State could not have had an easier opening game. Faced w/ an opponent that had zero chance, they quickly put Western New Mexico out of its misery. Now I realize that is a "nothing team" the Aggies beat, but the numbers were pretty staggering. The game started w/ 16-0 run. NMSU led 52-16 at the half and was up by as many as 52 in an eventual 92-46 victory. All 10 players that took the court scored. They allowed 28.6% shooting. 

Let's not forget that this New Mexico State team won 30 games last season and took Auburn to the wire (lost by 1) in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Five of its five losses were by six points or less! They have four starters back and figure to run through the WAC yet again. As for UTEP, it's 93-70 win over NM Highlands was not nearly as impressive as what NMSU did in its opener. The Miners actually turned the ball over 20 times and led by only nine w/ just over eight minutes remaining in the 2H. I think it's shocking this number is so low as the favorite is a really good team. 8* New Mexico State

8* Chicago State (8:00 ET): I'm digging deep on the board tonight. Chicago State is a team that has averaged 94 points in its first two games, albeit not against the stiffest of competition. The Cougars opened with a 103-60 rout of Judson College, a NAIA school, a game in which they shot the lights out (56.3%!) and led by 20 at halftime. They then lost to Loyola (MD), 98-85 in the home opener. This time, it was the Cougars on the wrong end of some sharpshooting as Loyola made 60% of its field goal attempts in the 1st half. Expect better defense from them tonight as I'll take the points.

This is obviously a big number for Eastern Illinois to lay in the wake of an 0-2 start. Now it was expected the Panthers would start 0-2 as they opened w/ road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin. They did not do well at Texas Tech, losing 85-60, but were surprisingly competitive in Madison, losing by only 13 as 19-point underdogs. EIU was actually within three w/ just nine minutes to play and what makes that even more impressive is they were -17 in points at the free throw line for the game. That discrepancy basically determined the outcome of the game. 

While Eastern Illinois won't be facing that kind of free throw discrepancy tonight at home, I don't see a clear path to winning by what the oddsmakers are calling for here. I know they faced two tough defensive teams, but a 56.0 PPG scoring average isn't exactly what you want to see from this large of a favorite. Especially when matched up w/ an underdog that you know can put the ball in the basket. Something to keep in mind is that Chicago State beat Eastern Illinois last year for their ONLY win over a D-I opponent the entire year (team finished 3-29). They are MUCH better this year. 8* Chicago State

8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): Let's continue the "deep dive" into tonight's College Hoops card w/ a play on UL Lafayette. The Ragin Cajuns are hoping for the same kind of success that the school's football team is having at the betting window this year (football team is 8-1 ATS, tied for best ATS record in the country w/ Ohio St). So far the basketball team is 2-0 SU, but neither game was lined. They defeated Loyola (NO) and McNeese State at home, by 28 and 5 points respectively. Take the points here as this number is way too high. 

TCU has played just one game and it was against Southwestern (TX), also a non-board opponent. The Horned Frogs won by 21 (83-62), but don't expect many more wins like that this season out of Ft. Worth. This team was picked to finish last in the Big 12. While leading scorer Desmond Bane is back, the next top four scorers from LY's team all departed. Bane did go for 26 against Southwestern, a D-III opponent, but it was shockingly just a three-point game shortly after halftime. So the final score there was a little misleading. Again, I won't be betting on TCU to win many games by large margins this year. 

UL Lafayette is picked to finish 5th in the Sun Belt. They too lost a lot of talent from LY's squad, but did bring in a key transfer (Jalen Johnson) from St. Louis. Also, the team's leading returning scorer, Cedric Russell, went for 22 pts against McNeese State. Giving the Ragin Cajuns hope here is the fact TCU was actually outrebounded in the opening game and allowed nearly 40% three-point shooting.  8* UL Lafayette 

10* Over Thunder/Pacers (7:05 ET): Personally, I feel that Oklahoma City has performed quite admirably in their first 10 games of the season. With both Russell Westbrook and Paul George departing via free agency, the Thunder were expected to take a massive hit in the standings this year. But so far they've gone 4-6 straight up, showing that they're going to be competitive. They only lost by two to Milwaukee on Sunday in a high-scoring game (121-119 final).

As per usual, Indiana was pegged to finish in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff mix. The season did not start well as they opened w/ three consecutive losses. But since that time, the Pacers are 6-1 with the only loss coming by just two points. Similar to Oklahoma City, there have been plenty of high-scoring games involving Indiana recently. Their last game was a 109-102 win at Orlando, which isn't all that high-scoring, but it was a second straight Over and third in four games.

Oklahoma City has gone Over in three straight as their games are now averaging 212.8 PPG. Against Milwaukee, they had seven players in double figures. Indiana is getting similar balance as they had six players score 10 or more points at Orlando. That kind of balance is huge with Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner still out with injuries. Pacers' games are averaging 215.2 PPG this year. I think it's pretty clear that this number opened too low. A key to this one going Over is that OKC is giving up 112.3 PPG on the road, well up from what they allow at home. 10* Over Thunder/Pacers

10* Under Mavericks/Celtics (7:35 ET): Both teams scored 135+ points in their last game, so the expectation here will be for another high-scoring affair. However, I think it's important to note neither team is likely to shoot the ball as well as they did against Memphis and San Antonio, respectively. The other big story here is that the Celtics are w/o Gordon Hayward (probably for awhile) after he fractured his left hand Saturday night. While the team still did go on to score 135 pts vs. the Spurs, Hayward's absence will undoubtedly be felt on the offensive end as he was having a really good start to the campaign. Take the Under here.

Dallas blitzed Memphis Saturday night, winning 138-122 as 5.5-pt road favorites. It's important to note the Grizzlies are a terrible team and not close to what they once were defensively. For the Mavs, that win was a welcome effort after they'd dropped their previous game to New York, a contest where they were 10.5-point home favorites. They scored just 102 points there. While 4-0 SU on the road so far, I do not anticipate the Mavs continuing to shoot 51% from the floor away from home. Their two best shooting nights of the season so far came against Cleveland and Memphis, two bad teams, both on the road. Boston has held three of its last four opponents under 40% shooting. They are #6 in the league in defensive efficiency.

The Mavs have just as many games where they shot below 40% (2) as they do over 50% so far. Facing Boston on the road should certainly lead to their impressive offensive numbers taking a hit. Opponents are barely shooting 41% against the Celtics for the year. As for the Celtics, the Hayward injury obviously hurts big-time and I do not anticipate the same collective level of scoring we saw from Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart that we saw Saturday vs. San Antonio (trio combined for 65 pts). Saturday was just the 2nd time Boston shot better than 50% this year and you should expect Dallas to play better defense here than they did in Memphis (allowed 52% shooting). Boston is 3-0 Under this year after scoring 115+ pts in the last game. 10* Under Mavericks/Celtics

10* Towson (7:00 ET): Towson has played two games thus far, the last one being a glorified scrimmage, which they won 100-31 against D-III Bryn Athyn. As you can imagine, the numbers from that game were fairly outrageous for the Tigers as they took a 59-15 lead into halftime and held the opposition to 24% shooting for the game, including 0 for 12 on three-point attempts! While little can be derived from that kind of victory, there's no denying that Towson's first win (over George Washington) had some merit. The Tigers won that one 72-58, easily covering the 5.5-pt spread. I'll lay the points here in the first ever meeting w/ Kent State. 

Kent State has played just once so far and it was a non-lined affair vs. a D-III school. While they did go on to beat Hiram College 97-58, note that it was only a nine-point game at halftime, which is a little troubling. In the second half, the Golden Flashes did catch fire from three-point range. They ended up making 13 three-pointers in the game and it also helped that Hiram turned the ball over 21 times. Towson certainly isn't going to be as generous this evening though and this being a road game, I think it's smart to be a little leery of what Kent State can really do in this spot. 

Towson has been able to show off its depth in the first two games. The bench accounted for 65 of the 100 points last game as starters basically sat the entire 2H. Also, the defense has been outstanding so far w/ the two opponents shooting just 31% overall and 20% from 3-pt range. Kent State relied heavily on the 3-pt shot against Hiram, but was only 43% overall from the field, which isn't a good sign here. While Towson was NOT one of the five teams in the CAA that earned a first place vote in the preseason poll, they are nevertheless dangerous, especially w/ this infusion of young talent. Kent State is more experienced, but still is a middle of the road MAC team. The home court edge matters big time here as the Golden Flashes are 0-7 ATS the L2 seasons as a road dog of 3 pts or less. 10* Towson

10* Arizona (9:00 ET): Any concern #21 Arizona may have over impending NCAA sanctions weren't apparent Wednesday night when they completely wiped the floor w/ Northern Arizona. Obviously, it figured to be a lopsided affair going in. But the Wildcats easily covered the 23.5-point spread, winning 91-52 for HC Sean Miller. Freshman Zeke Nnaji led the way w/ 20 points as Arizona dominated down low. Nnaji is one of seven newcomers to the Arizona program this year, so it's no wonder the issues surrounding the program aren't affecting the current roster. Lay the points.

This will be the third game for Illinois. But unlike what Arizona did in its first game, the Fighting Illini have failed to overwhelm two lesser opponents. A pair of eight point wins over Nicholls State and Grand Canyon really aren't all that impressive when you think about it and then needed OT to beat Nicholls State at home. The +56 rebounding margin the Illini has enjoyed so far won't be present here. Also, playing a third game in less than a week really isn't the best setup for the first true test of the season is it? Especially when its a second road game in three nights and out on the West Coast.

Arizona is simply deeper and better than Illinois. They are also better rested. Not only did Illinois need OT to beat Nicholls State in the opener, they only led Grand Canyon by four at halftime on Friday. Asking them to "keep up" in Tucson seems like a tall order considering the Illini have won just 3 of their previous 23 road games (includes the win at Grand Canyon)!  10* Arizona

8* Western Kentucky (4:00 ET): Both teams won their opening game. Western Kentucky prevailed 76-64 over Tennessee Tech here in Bowling Green, but failed to cover as 19-point favorites. Austin Peay was a 110-67 winner over Oakland City, but do not make the mistake of reading too much into that result. Oakland City is a Division II school that had no chance of winning. 

Austin Peay did win 22 games last season, but did not make the postseason. They bring back just one starter from that team, Terry Taylor, who scored 21 points in the opener. That's right about where his output was a season ago (20.5 PPG). But the rest of the team being as prolific as it was vs. Oakland City is not something that should be counted upon regularly. The Governors were an insane 41 of 59 on 2-pt attempts Tuesday. That probably won't happen again this season. The size advantage they enjoyed in that first game simply won't be present here. 

Western Kentucky could be considered the favorite in C-USA this season. They bring back a majority of the team that won 20 games last season. Though they did not cover the large spread in the opening game, they did lead by double digits for the entirety of the second half. They didn't even shoot that well from three-point range, so that's something to look for here. The Hilltoppers were a strong 21-13 overall at the betting window last season. This number ought to be higher, so we'll lay it. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Nebraska (2:00 ET): I have to admit that when I first glanced at this line, I thought someone from Nebraska had to be injured. I know Southern Utah is a "program on the rise," but this number is way too short. The game is in Lincoln after all! The reason for the short line is that the Cornhuskers are in off an embarrassing loss in their opener where they fell 66-47 to UC Riverside as 15.5-pt favorites. It was an ice cold shooting night in HC Fred Hoiberg's debut. That's not going to happen again and you should look to take advantage of this line, which is way too low. 

Nebraska shot just 29.1% from the floor Tuesday vs. UC Riverside, a shocking performance indeed. They were 6 of 26 from three-point range w/ three of their top shooters going a collective 1 for 11. Incredibly, as a team, they missed 35 of their final 44 shots overall. That is unconscionable! Even the free throw line was unkind as Nebraska went 9 for 19 there. As embarrassing a setback as that may have been, you have to chalk it up to "one of those nights." I don't think it's indicative of what we'll see out of Lincoln under Hoiberg.

Southern Utah smoked Bethesda in its first game, winning 110-66. But that's a non-board team and this is a big step up travelling to face an opponent out of the Big 10. Last year was Southern Utah's best finish in ages as they went 17-17 and won a game in the CIT. But there's still a big gap between them and Nebraska. Key here is that SUU likes to run, just like Nebraska does, so it's a better matchup for the favorite than UC Riverside was. Also, the Thunderbirds lack the size UC Riverside had. Nebraska allowed just 61.2 PPG in non-conference play a season ago. Defense wasn't the issue on Tuesday though. It'll be the obvious offensive improvement that carries them to a cover here. 10* Nebraska

analysis soon

8* Over Raptors/Pelicans (8:05 ET): New Orleans is no stranger to high totals. When they faced the Rockets a few weeks ago, we took the Over at 238.5 and cashed by double digits. Their last game had a total of 239.5 and it too went Over (lost 135-125 to Brooklyn). All but one Pelicans' game this season has gone Over as oddsmakers struggle to make these numbers high enough. This one still isn't high enough. Take the Over.

While the Pelicans find themselves at 1-6 SU, Toronto has played pretty well in a 5-2 start. Remember Kawhi Leonard took off for LA, so it's supposed to be a big step back for the reigning NBA Champs. But I still see them finishing top five in the East pretty easily. The Raptors' only two losses so far were at Boston and Milwaukee. They had three days rest after losing to the Bucks and scored 124 pts in a win over Sacramento Wednesday. That game saw them shoot 55% from the field.

New Orleans is averaging 119.3 PPG, yet is still 1-6 SU. That should tell you all you need to know about the kind of defense they play, which is to say it's non-existent. Last year, they were tied for worst in points per game allowed (116.8) in the Western Conference, so they've actually regressed. Right now they are dead last, giving up 124.3 PPG. This is the rematch of the season opener in Toronto, won by the Raptors 130-122. While that game did go to OT, the Pelicans have twice allowed more points in regulation this season. Toronto just allowed Sacramento to make a franchise-record 20 three-pointers in its last game. 8* Over Raptors/Pelicans

8* Over Cavs/Wizards (7:05 ET): Continuing a theme we saw throughout last year, Cleveland has played terrible defense its last two games, both of which resulted in losses at home. They allowed Dallas to shoot 53.2% from the field while Boston was at 56.5%. They allowed a combined 250 points in those two losses. But like their opponents tonight, the Cavs are in store for some better shooting of their own. They've shot below 42% each of the L3 games and that's unlikely to continue. Take the Over here. 

Washington just shot 38.9% from the floor in its 121-106 loss at Indiana Wednesday night. It was the Wizards' second time finishing w/ that exact percentage in their L3 games. Here at home, you'd expect improved shooting. Remember - there was a home game earlier this year where the Wizards scored 158 points in regulation and shot 63.2%! But what you shouldn't ever expect from this team is good defense. They've lost four of five and given up at least 121 pts in all four losses. That game where they scored 158 in regulation was actually a LOSS as they gave up 159! Right now, only four teams are allowing a higher PPG average than the Wiz.

When the dust of this season starts to settle, you'll find these teams likely located at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. The Cavs are in the second year of a massive rebuild after LeBron James left them a second time. The Wizards will likely be w/o John Wall the entire season due to an ACL tear. On the bright side, the Cavs did have six players in double figures against Boston. Bradley Beal has picked up the scoring slack for Washington w/ three 30+ pt games so far. But the teams currently sit at 24th and 27th in defensive efficiency and this figures to turn into a track meet. 8* Over Cavs/Wizards

10* Miami FL (7:00 ET): Coming off a 13-point home loss to Louisville, you've got to figure "The U" will be pretty fired up here. FAU seems like an ideal matchup as the 'Canes are 23-1 SU against them all-time, including a 20-point win as 14-pt favorites LY. The Owls are definitely a step down in class from L'ville, the #5 ranked team in the country. Though Miami initially led 16-9 Tuesday night, little else went right after that. They closed the game on a 16-2 run to make the final score at least respectable. But they did trail by as many as 32. Still, they are the play here. Lay the number. 

Miami is much deeper and more experienced team than they were a season ago when they finished just 14-18, ending a three-year NCAA Tournament run. Defensively, I expect a much better effort here than what we saw Tuesday. HC Jim Larranaga preached defense all off-season, yet his team allowed L'ville to shoot 55% from the field, which is terribly disappointing. But again, that's a much better team that what they'll be facing here. Last year, the Hurricanes held FAU to 33% shooting and were up 23 by halftime. 

 FAU played a Division II team (Flagler) in its opening game, so little can be drawn from that. The Owls scored 92 points with some red hot shooting, but also gave up 81 points and had 20 turnovers, which are not good signs. In last year's game, Miami had its way on the interior, making 20 of 29 two-point shots! The Canes did shoot well in the 2H vs. L'ville, including 50% from three-point range. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS following a SU loss while FAU is 8-20 ATS off its L28 SU wins. 10* Miami FL

10* Oklahoma City (8:35 ET): San Antonio is just 1-6 against the spread, which is the worst mark in the league. What makes that ATS record so interesting is that the team is also 4-3 SU. The Spurs were exactly expected to be world-beaters this season, yet have been favored in almost every game. They've lost the last two, however, including 108-100 at Atlanta Tuesday where they were a six-point road favorite. The only game the Spurs covered so far was against Golden State, who is a mess right now. Even coming off an upset loss, I just don't want any part of this Spurs team right now, especially laying points. Take the dog in this Western Conference matchup. 

The Thunder are only 3-4 SU, but have a better scoring differential than the Spurs. They are coming off consecutive victories at home, over New Orleans and Orlando, where they did a solid job defensively. They currently rank third in the league in defensive efficiency, trailing only Utah and the Lakers. Long-time followers know how much I value the defensive efficiency metric. So even though little is expected from OKC this year, my view is they are an undervalued team right now. Three of their four losses have been by five points or less. They've allowed only one opponent to score more than 104 pts so far and that was Houston, who leads the Western Conference in PPG. 

The Thunder have lost the last four times they've ventured into San Antonio, also going 0-4 ATS. That seems a little strange as the teams have generally been pretty competitive the last couple years. Obviously, there's been a mass exodus of talent in OKC, but the same can be said for San Antonio. The Spurs have shot poorly the L2 games (not surprising since they lost both) and don't look for them to turn it around here as the Thunder lead the league in opposing FG% (40.3) and 3-point % (27.3). San Antonio's defense has slipped this year as they've yet to hold an opponent below 100 points. 10* Oklahoma City. 

10* Under Celtics/Hornets (8:05 ET): Boston has won five straight and has the best win percentage in the Eastern Conference. I don't think they've been nearly as impressive as Milwaukee has, but they did beat the Bucks once (coming back from 19 down). Of course, it also helps to have faced the Knicks twice. The Celtics' last two victories haven't been all that impressive as they were by a combined eight points over New York & Cleveland. We faded the C's in Cleveland Tuesday and came away w/ a push. Here it's a play on the Under. They won't be matching the hot shooting from that Cleveland game. 

While Boston was shooting 56.5% from the field in Cleveland, Charlotte got to go to the free throw line 42 times in what ended up being a 122-120 OT win over Indiana. Neither team is going to come close to matching those numbers from the respective last games. The Celtics are still only shooting 44% overall even after the win in Cleveland. Gordon Hayward scored 39 points vs. the Cavs, going a ridiculous 16 of 16 on 2-pt attempts. Again, that's not going to happen here. The Hornets average 23 FT attempts per game, so getting to the charity stripe 42 times like they did vs. Indiana also seems unlikely to repeat itself.

The huge number of free throw attempts was almost solely responsible for the Hornets beating the Pacers Tuesday. Indiana got only SEVEN FT attempts the entire game! Despite the massive edge at FT line, Charlotte still almost lost as it allowed the Pacers to shoot 54.3%. I'd look for better defense here. Note the game prior, which the Hornets also won, was a 93-87 final against Golden State. Winners of three in a row, the Hornets have alternated going Over and then Under all season. All four games w/ Boston went Over LY, but it's a new season and this should be a low-scoring game. The Celtics hold teams to 104.7 PPG, which is 2nd fewest in the Eastern Conference. 10* Under Celtics/Hornets

8* UCLA (11:00 ET): The Mick Cronin era is set to begin at UCLA. This once proud program has descended into almost being irrelevant, but Cronin should get them back to the top of the Pac 12. Cronin did an excellent job the L13 seasons in Cincinnati, who was perenially one of the top defensive teams in the country. He inherits 13 returning players from the previous regime. The first game is against Long Beach State, a team the Bruins have pretty much dominated over the years. They are 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) the L7 meetings including a 91-80 win to open last season. Lay the points here in Cronin's debut. 

LBSU is known for taking on a challenging non-conference schedule under HC Dan Monson. But last year saw them drop 10 of 14 non-conf games while giving up nearly 80 PPG. This year could be a lot uglier and not because of the defense. The top five scorers from LY's team are all gone. No returning player averaged more than 7.2 PPG last season. No one else on this current roster averaged more than 4.0 PPG. The 49ers have finished under .500 five of the last six seasons and have won just 15 games each of the L3 seasons. It could be a long season. 

UCLA was terrible defensively last season, but I project them to be one of the most improved teams in the country in that department under Cronin's guidance. This was a very good hire. Last year's team had all sorts of distractions and Steve Alford got fired 13 games into the season. Don't forget the program had to deal w/ the Ball family two years ago. It's a more focused group coming into 2019 and Cronin brought in three four-star recruits. Even if Prince Ali's ankle doesn't allow him to play here, the Bruins have enough talent on hand to win big. Cronin is looking to make a statement here. 8* UCLA 

10* Under Bucks/Clippers (10:05 ET): Two hot teams meet Wednesday night on ESPN in what could very well be a Finals preview. The Bucks have won three straight and are coming off their highest scoring effort of the year, a 134-106 win in Minnesota Monday night. The Clippers have won two straight, the most recent being a 105-94 victory over Utah. Unfortunately, a bit of the luster of this matchup has been lost w/ LA deciding to sit Kawhi Leonard (front end of a B2B). That's obviously going to impact their ability to score. Take the Under.

The Bucks have scored 115 or more points in every game but one, so they've picked up right where they left off offensively last season. They were #3 in offensive efficiency a year ago, the first season under Mike Budenholzer, and have jumped to #1 so far this season. But, let us not forget that this team was also #1 in defensive efficiency last year. They've slipped some (down to #8) this year, but have also been a lot better recently, giving up an average of just over 100 PPG the L3 contests. Teams are shooting just over 40% for the year against the Bucks. They held Minnesota to 35.9% from the field.

Obviously, defending the Clippers w/o Kawhi will be a lot easier. The Clippers' last four games have all gone Under anyway and they didn't shoot particularly well w/ Leonard in the lineup against either the Spurs or Jazz. Note the only other time Leonard rested this season, the Clips could manage only 96 points in a loss to the Jazz. That was easily a season-low in points scored. Leonard leads the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals, so it goes w/o saying that he'll be missed. 10* Under Bucks/Clippers 

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Minnesota was able to split the two games Karl-Anthony Towns missed due to suspension (got into a fight w/ Joel Embiid). They won in Washington, 131-109, but then faltered at home against Milwaukee, losing 134-106. Towns is back in the lineup Wednesday night as the T'wolves make the trip to Memphis. While the Grizzlies' season is not exactly off to a "rousing start" (their record is 1-5), they've generally been competitive. This is their third straight home game while Minnesota has had to bounce back & forth between home and the road. Take the points as the T'wolves are overvalued in Towns' return.

The Grizzlies' last two home games were against Phoenix and Houston. They lost by nine to the Suns, a game which they led early. Playing against a desperate Rockets team (that had been humiliated the night prior), they lost by only seven. The only times this team has been blown out this year have been on the road. They're 1-3 at home w/ all three losses coming by single digits. One bright spot has been the play of rookie Ja Morant, who leads the team in points and assists. He had 23 and 6 against Houston Monday. We should see Morant and the rest of the Grizzlies shoot better tonight against a T'wolves team that just gave up 134 points and is not noted for its defense.

It'll be interesting to see how Towns return affects Andrew Wiggins, who was the primary scorer for Minnesota the L2 games. While the T'wolves have opened 3-1 SU on the road, two of the wins were against Washington and Charlotte (both bad) and the other by a single point over Brooklyn. Their only other win was a very favorable spot against Miami, who was playing the second game of a back to back. I thought the T'wolves were somewhat exposed in losses to the Sixers and Bucks, which came by 22 and 28 points respectively. This isn't a team I'd want to LAY points with on the road. 10* Memphis 

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Cavaliers were blown out Sunday night, losing here at home to Dallas 131-111. I think they'll fare better tonight against Boston. The Cavs were 2-0 SU at home before that loss to the Mavs. They have shot demonstrably better here at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (formerly Quicken Loans Arena), making 47.2% of their field goal attempts while averaging 112.7 points per game. They've scored at least 110 in every home game thus far. Anything close to a similar effort tonight should result in an easy cover. Take the points.

Boston moved on from Kyrie Irving in the offseason, but still expects to be a top contender in the Eastern Conference. They enter this game at 4-1 SU, their only loss coming in the season opener to Philadelphia, which was a road game. However, the last two wins have NOT been pretty w/ the Celtics having to rally from a 19-pt deficit against Milwaukee and then needing a last second shot to beat the Knicks 104-102. The Celtics haven't shot very well so far as their FG% is 41.7, which is 27th overall. Kemba Walker, Irving's replacement, has really carried the team w/ three straight games of 32+ pts. 

The Cavs are definitely rebuilding under 1st year HC John Beilein. But both Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are both playing well. Love had 29 points and eight rebounds Sunday while Thompson posted his 5th double-double of the season. This team won't be the pushover it was last season, it's first after losing LeBron James for a second time. The Celtics might be 4-1, but they've hardly been dominant in getting to that record, so taking the points here seems smart. 8* Cleveland 

8* Appalachian State (7:00 ET): There's an obvious comment to be made here w/ Michigan opening its season against Appalachian State. It was a little more than 12 years ago, over at "The Big House," that the Wolverines' football team laid a historic egg against ASU (then a FCS program) in what still ranks as one of the greatest upsets in the history of that particular sport. Of course, that also happened to be Lloyd Carr's final season in Ann Arbor. It's a new era of Michigan hoops w/ Juwan Howard taking over for John Beilein, who went to the NBA to the coach Cleveland. I don't see Howard losing his HC debut, but the Maize and Blue aren't as good as they've been in past years. Take the points.

Howard was of course part of the famed "Fab Five" that took Michigan - and the entire College Basketball world - by storm in the early 90's. But he has zero head coaching experience and is laying a big number tonight. The Wolverines lost their top three scorers from a year ago and freshman Franz Wagner broke his wrist, which will cause him to miss 4-6 weeks. Michigan played a very sophisticated offense under Beilein. Under Howard, it looks like they'll "play faster." But a recent scrimmage against Saginaw Valley State saw them shoot just 9 of 31 from three-point range and at one point, they went seven minutes w/o making a shot. My guess is Michigan isn't going to be as stout defensively either now that Beilein has moved on. 

Appalachian State went 11-21 SU last season, it's eighth straight losing campaign. So a coaching change was made as Dustin Kerns comes over after a successful run at Presbyterian. Kerns inherits a good deal of returning talent, led by Justin Forrest, who averaged 16.2 PPG last season. He's one of three starters back. The Mountaineers definitely didn't have issues scoring last season as they averaged 79.9 PPG, which was 33rd in the country. The issue was at the other end. But if Michigan struggles to shoot like they did vs. Saginaw Valley State, that issue should be less of a problem. Plus, I expect Kerns to improve the team's overall defense. 8* Appalachian State

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The T'wolves won't have Karl-Anthony Towns tonight (suspended), but they didn't have him on Saturday either and still managed to win 131-109. Granted, that was against the sorry Wizards. But here the oddsmakers are giving them some help in the form of a generous number at home. The T'Wolves' 4-1 start is made more impressive when you consider they've only gotten to play one home game. That lone home date saw them defeat a good Miami team 116-109. That is still Miami's only loss this season. Take the points here. 

Milwaukee will show up in the Twin Cities off B2B impressive performances. After blowing out Orlando 123-91 on Friday, the Bucks led by as many as 26 against Toronto Saturday and won 115-105. Thanks to a low-scoring 4Q, I was able to cash an Under bet on that Saturday matchup. The Bucks are now 4-2 SU/ATS on the year and could easily be 6-0 SU as they blew DD leads in both losses. That being said, this is the most points they've been asked to lay away from home thus far and it comes against a team that's playing pretty well right now. This is kind of a letdown spot for Milwaukee as Saturday was a big revenge game for LY's Eastern Conference Finals. 

Six players finished in double figures for Minnesota on Saturday, led by Andrew Wiggins' 21 pts. That's a good sign as they again play w/o Towns, whose suspension came about for fighting w/ Joel Embiid. Something that makes Minnesota's 4-1 start even more impressive is that they have not fared well from behind the three-point line. Opponents are hitting nearly 40% against them for the year. But I don't think that will continue. They should also shoot better from three-point range tonight than they did against Miami (13 for 45). The T'wolves are a surprising 57-28 SU at home since the start of the 2017-18 season. While they are 2-8 SU/ATS L10 meetings w/ Milwaukee, this is a good value. 8* Minnesota

10* Under Mavericks/Cavs (7:35 ET): Dallas' last game would not have gone Over w/o OT as it was 103-103 at the end of regulation (O/U line: 217). That was also a brutal loss for anyone that took the Mavs +2 (I did) as they led outright most of the game, only to end up losing by nine. PG Luka Doncic got banged up near the end of the game, which definitely contributed to the team's poor showing in overtime. Doncic is listed as probable for tonight, but it's something worth monitoring. I don't see Dallas continuing to shoot as well on the road regardless as they've made 48.6% of their FG attempts in two games, both wins. Take the Under here. 

Cleveland is 2-0 at home so far, having beaten Indiana and Chicago. Similar to Dallas on the road, I don't see the young Cavaliers being able to maintain their current shooting at home, which is 51.3% from the field, well above what they are shooting on the road (where they are 0-3). The Cavs were very bad defensively a season ago, ranking dead last in efficiency. But they seem to be improved under new HC John Beilein as they've allowed 102 pts or less in three of five games so far and they're up to a much more respectable 15th in defensive efficiency. 

Unfortunately for the Cavs, they are averaging only 103.8 PPG overall, which is near the bottom of the league. Only six teams average a fewer number of points per game. Rookie Darius Garland was 0 for 10 from the field against Indiana on Friday, a game the Cavs lost by only six points. He'll shoot better than that tonight (obviously), but as I said when I played the Under in that game vs. Indiana, early season numbers from Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are due to decline. Both of these teams shoot the ball around 44% for the year, but the Mavs are way higher on the road while the Cavs are way higher here at home. Those road/home percentages are due to regress back to the mean. 10* Under Mavericks/Cavs

10* Under Raptors/Bucks (8:05 ET): This is an early season rematch of LY's Eastern Conference Finals where the Raptors eliminated the top-seeded Bucks 4 games to 2 en route to their 1st ever NBA Championship. Toronto won the final four games of that series after going just 1-5 against Milwaukee (including regular season) previously. While I wouldn't say the Bucks are off to a great start to this year, they did just blow out Orlando last night 123-91. That was a disappointing result for us (had the Magic), but in the second night of a B2B, I don't expect the Bucks to score as much. Take the Under here.

Toronto also went Over in its last game, a 125-113 win over Detroit. The Raptors are 4-1 SU/ATS, the only loss coming by six points at Boston. They've since rattled off three wins in a row, all by comfortable margins. Before blitzing the Pistons w/ near 60% shooting, the Raptors had been "doing it w/ defense" as they'd held their first four opponents to around 37% shooting from the field and their previous two both under 100 points. It's still early, but the Raptors rate 6th in defensive efficiency. Their shooting is a lock to come down from the last game and leading scorer Pascal Siakam is going to have to deal w/ guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo.

  The Bucks allowed a season-low in points last night, but they also have yet to allow any opponent to shoot better than 45.5% from the field. Toronto had not shot the ball particularly well its first four games. So while its easy to write off Milwaukee's defensive performance last night as a byproduct of "facing Orlando" (who has yet to score 100 pts in a game this season and also plays at the slowest pace), I think they'll do a solid job at containing the defending NBA Champs here. Both teams are 4-1 Under when coming off a DD win. 10* Under Raptors/Bucks

8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The Lakers are 3-1, having won three in a row, all as home favorites. They actually own the league's top scoring differential right now at +11.8 per game. But it's worth mentioning that their last two wins have come against Memphis and Charlotte, who are two of the league's worst teams. Tonight also marks the Lakers' first game away from Staples Center. Remember they opened the season w/ a game against the Clippers where they were the designated "road team." The Lakers remain a very "public" team and this short number on the road absolutely STINKS. Take the points.

Dallas is also 3-1 w/ its lone defeat coming by just two points (at home vs. Portland). The Mavs were expected to improve and contend for a playoff spot this year, so the 3-1 start is a good sign. They are off arguably their most impressive win to date, a 109-106 upset of Denver as six-point road dogs. They won that game despite their two top players - Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic combining for just 22 points on 7 of 22 shooting. But SEVEN other Mavs finished in double figures to help pick up the slack. Expect the two stars to both bounce back this evening and the dropoff from the role players shouldn't be that severe as this is a home game (reserves typically play better at home). 

Anthony Davis had 40 points and 20 rebounds vs. Memphis in just three quarters of play. But again, the Grizzlies are not a formidable opponent. Davis also appeared to be bothered by a lingering shoulder issue in that game. He was 26 of 27 from the free throw line in that game, which accounted for most of his scoring. I suspect we won't be seeing him at the charity stripe that much tonight. Of course, we should probably mention LeBron James and that Kyle Kuzma is expected to make his season debut tonight. But I wouldn't expect too much from Kuzma in his first game back. I still have reservations about the Lakers defensively and James' teams had the worst ATS record in the league the L2 years. 8* Dallas

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Magic are a team we've been tracking all week. While they came up short for us in Monday's loss to the Raptors, they immediately bounced back w/ a win and cover Wednesday night against the Knicks. Admittedly, beating the Knicks wasn't as easy as it looked. The Magic were down at halftime before really putting down the clamps defensively. They held the Knicks to just 39 pts in the 2H. No team is playing at a slower pace than the Magic, whose games - on average - are the lowest scoring in the league right now. I'm counting on that slow pace and defense to be factor tonight as Orlando is a home dog for the 1st time this season. Take the points. 

Milwaukee won 60 games last year, finishing first in the East. They are the overwhelming favorite to finish first in the Conference again this year. But I suspect they're not going to win as many games this year as they did in 2018. They made a large jump from 44 to 60 (wins) last year based on a new offensive approach under HC Mike Budenholzer (more threes!) and Giannis Antetokounmpo emerging as one of the league's top players. The book is now out on the Bucks though. The "Greek Freak" (Antetokounmpo) is being hampered w/ foul trouble so far this year and the team has twice lost a game in which it held a lead of 16+ points. Defensively, they are giving up 117.5 PPG. 

Orlando is 2-0 at home this year. Granted, those wins were against the Cavs and Knicks. But considering how poorly the Magic have shot the ball so far, it's a wonder they've won any games at all! They are averaging 95.7 PPG on 39.5% shooting, including 28.8% from three-point range. Every one of those numbers ranks last in the league, except 3-pt shooting, which is 29th (2nd worst). You have to imagine the shooting is set to improve and with Milwaukee struggling defensively, tonight should be the night Orlando breaks out offensively. The Magic have no problems defensively, ranking 2nd in the league in points allowed at 93.8 PPG and 3rd in efficiency. I smell an "upset" here. 8* Orlando

8* Under Pacers/Cavs (7:05 ET): Both of these teams won Wednesday night. Cleveland used some hot second-half shooting to beat the Bulls 117-111 and remain unbeaten at home (2-0). Indiana, now 1-3, picked up its first win of the season by beating Brooklyn 118-108 in what was a battle of 0-3 ATS teams. This is an early season rematch as the Cavs won the first go around 110-99, at home. The Cavs have shot better than 50% in both home games this year, but are down at 41.3% on the road. Meanwhile, the Pacers are going to be w/o Myles Turner tonight, one of their two low-post scorers. For a 2nd time this year, this matchup produces an Under. 

Cleveland has increased its scoring w/ each passing game. They started the year by getting held to 85 points in a loss at Orlando. They've scored 110 or more in each of the L3 games, so really the big jump came from game #1 to game #2, which was against these Pacers. The first meeting w/ Indiana was last Saturday and both teams were on two days' rest. The Cavs have been getting great production from their two bigs, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, both of whom are averaging double-doubles. But I'm unconvinced that either will be able to maintain their current averages. Tonight being a road game, I expect Cleveland's scoring to decrease from the previous game for the 1st time all season.

Indiana's offense also runs through its two big men, but one of them (Turner) will be out due to an ankle injury. That leaves Domantas Sabonis alone down low. Malcom Brogden went for 30 in the first game vs. Cleveland, a number I don't see him getting to tonight. The Pacers had just six offensive rebounds in that loss to the Cavs and with Turner now out, it's not like they are likely to do any better. Don't forget the Pacers are also w/o LY's leading scorer Victor Oladipo, so it's not really that surprising to see them struggling in the early going. Indiana is 56-33 Under when favored the L3 seasons and it should be noted they were a dog when they beat Brooklyn Weds night. The Under is also 24-8 the L3 seasons when Indiana is off an outright win as a dog. The Under is 6-1 the L7 times Cleveland has played here in Indiana. 8* Under Pacers/Cavs 

9* Over Heat/Hawks (7:05 ET): If this feels like a case of 'deja vu', these teams just met Tuesday in Miami w/ the Heat winning 112-97. I was on the home team, laying 7.5 points, as they basically led the entire way and by double digits much of the second half. It was Jimmy Butler's Miami debut and he delivered 21 pts. But the big story was Hawks G Trae Young spraining his ankle early in the second quarter. After Young left the game, Atlanta just wasn't the same. Young's expected absence on Thursday is the reason the Heat are favored by roughly the same number of points here in Atlanta as they were at home. The O/U line is also much lower. Take the Over.

Obviously, the Hawks are going to miss Young's 26.8 points and 7.3 assists per game. But collectively they can pick up the scoring slack. It was a season-low 97 points they scored in Miami as they shot below 43% for the second game in a row. Not coincidentally, they also lost both of those games. The first two games, which were both wins, saw the team shoot above 51%. All four games, regardless if they were a win or loss, have gone Under. The Hawks had been doing an excellent job defensively before facing Miami Tuesday night. But the Heat are averaging 118 PPG so far and now have Butler back. What I'm saying is don't be shocked is Atlanta struggles defensively tonight. 

Miami is allowing a FG% of 42.9 for the year. Yet their first three games all went Over. They've scored 112 or more in every game where they've come in rested. Their 472 points scored through four games is actually a new franchise record.   At the same time, the 97 pts allowed to Atlanta on Tuesday marked a season-low. I'd expect an Atlanta increase tonight. Specifically, you should start to see improvement from 3-pt range where the Hawks are 31.5% so far. At the same time, they can't keep holding teams to 27.9% from behind the arc. This will be a surprising shootout. 9* Over Heat/Hawks

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): So the Magic are 0-3 ATS to start the season, which is a disappointment obviously, but perhaps also a reflection of the fact there are actual expectations for this team in 2019-20. That hasn't been the case for some time. But w/ LY's playoff breakthrough and the Eastern Conference being so wide-open this year, a team with this kind of continuity (returned 85% of LY's minutes played) should do well. A 1-2 start isn't cause for any kind concern, but after B2B losses, the Magic could really use an easy win tonight. Fortunately, they'll be playing the Knicks! Lay the points. 

The Knicks had the worst record in the league last season (17-65), setting expectations rather low in the Big Apple. Sure enough, the team opened the year by losing three straight. They did beat Chicago on Monday, but that required a pretty big comeback and the game was at home. The Knicks trailed by 18 at the end of the 1st quarter and were down 7 entering the 4Q. Their first lead came in the final two minutes as Bobby Portis sunk a go-ahead 3-pointer to cap one of the best games of his career (28 points). A player like Portis can't be counted on every night though. In fact, he'd scored just 18 pts total in the first three games. There were only three times all of last season where NY won B2B games, by the way. 

Orlando has yet to score 100 pts in a game this year, which is a problem. But look for them to get on track offensively tonight. The Knicks aren't a great defensive team obviously. Before beating Chicago, they'd allowed 113+ points in every game. Orlando's only win came here at home where they beat a Cleveland team (95-84) that's pretty comparable to the Knicks. Both losses were on the road. While the offense has struggled, the Magic do rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, which is a good sign My call is that a season-high in points scored is all but a lock tonight and the strong defensive play continues. The Magic are 6-2 SU/ATS the L2 years vs. the Knicks. 10* Orlando

10* Miami (7:35 ET): Sunday saw the Heat fail in the second game of a back to back, losing to Minnesota 116-109 as 6.5-pt underdogs. But it's not as if they weren't in the game. Despite a terrible 1st quarter (outscored 36-23), Miami led by 7 entering the 4th quarter. But then the 4Q was even worse than 1st and they ended up not covering. I was happy to see that as we'd taken the T'wolves. But now its time for the Heat to capitalize on an opponent being in the 2nd game of a B2B. It's Atlanta, who lost by 2 last night. We'll capitalize too. Lay the number.

The Hawks did cover last night and are now 3-0 ATS on the year. We had them in the opener at Detroit where they won outright (by 17 pts!). That was followed by a 103-99 win over Orlando in the home opener. Trae Young has been very good in the early going, but was held to just six points in the second half vs. Philadelphia last night. That was a much different finish than the Orlando game when he scored the Hawks' final eight points. Monday's result has to be tough to swallow for Young and the rest of the Hawks seeing as they never trailed by more than four and were up 13 in the first half. Much like Miami on Sunday, it's a tough spot for the road team here. 

Saturday saw Miami rally from 21 down in the second half to win at Milwaukee. I certainly didn't like their chances Sunday in Minnesota given the circumstance, but the Heat played better than expected. They've won their only other home game this season, 120-101 over Memphis, and now are expected to get Jimmy Butler back in the starting lineup. That the Heat didn't start poorly w/o Butler is a good sign. Miami is a team many feel can win the Southeast Division and I'm not going to disagree w/ that (it's between them and Orlando). Atlanta has won just 21 of its last 63 road games and is 7-20 SU in the second game of a back to back. 10* Miami

10* Orlando (7:35 ET): Projecting this year's NBA season proved to be a bit more challenging than normal due to all the player movement in the offseason. In the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee is the consensus top team w/ Boston and Philly probably most people's choices as the top challengers. After that, it gets rather murky. Here we have two teams wanting to be in the mix, Orlando and Toronto. The Raptors are obviously defending NBA Champs, but lost Kawhi Leonard. The Magic are interesting. While there was so much player movement in the offseason, they return about as many of LY's minutes played as any team in the East. Though it's an 0-2 ATS start for them this year, we'll back them plus the points Monday. 

Orlando returns 85% of last season's total minutes played. The only time w/ greater continuity is Denver. The Magic looked good in their season opener, holding Cleveland to 85 points on 37.1% shooting, but then fell victim to a hot-shooting night by Atlanta's Trae Young (went for 39 pts) in a 103-99 loss to the Hawks Saturday night. The Magic really didn't help themselves by shooting just 35.4% in that game, including 16.1% from three-point range (5 of 31). They should easily improve upon those numbers here. There's also a little bit of the revenge factor in play for Orlando tonight as they were the first team eliminated by Toronto in year's playoffs, losing the series 4-1. The one win did come here in Toronto though. 

The Raptors are going to have to offset the loss of Leonard somehow. So far, it's been Pascal Siakam, who has scored 86 points in three games. But I don't see that continuing. Siakam's production fell drastically in the third game, down to 19 pts, though it hardly mattered as the Raptors still beat the Bulls 108-84. But this is a team that could easily be 1-2 right now if not for a come from behind, OT victory over New Orleans on Opening Night. Toronto likely will be unable to maintain its current 39.8% shooting from 3-pt range. I like this Orlando team, especially in the underdog role. After they were favorites in the first two games, it's time to back them here. 10* Orlando

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET): Normally, the T’wolves might not be favored by this many points over the Heat. But this one is all about the situation. Saturday saw Miami rally back from 21 down to defeat Milwaukee on the road. I just don’t think they are going to have much left in the tank as they arrive in the Twin Cities Sunday. The Heat were very fortunate yesterday in that the Bucks missed 24 of their final 27 three-point attempts and Giannis Antetokounmpo fouled out. Time to fade the Heat in the second night of a back to back. Lay the points.

Minnesota, like Miami, is 2-0 straight up and against the spread. In the opener, they were able to do what the Bucks couldn’t on Saturday and that’s survive a big second half rally. Despite Kyrie Irving scoring 50 points, Minnesota was able to beat Brooklyn 127-126 in overtime. They followed that up w/ a convincing win over lowly Charlotte, 121-99 as a five-point favorite. It’s important to note that both wins came on the road. Karl Anthony-Towns has been a beast so far, averaging 36.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3.5 steals and 2.5 blocks.

Remember that Miami is playing short-handed here w/o Jimmy Butler, Dion Waiters and Udonis Haslem. That would be bad in any normal scenario, but it’s brutal for a second night of a B2B. Will Minnesota ultimately be a playoff team in 2020? Maybe not. But they are well positioned to start the season a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread. 8* Minnesota

10* Over Pelicans/Rockets (8:05 ET): It’s bad enough that the Pelicans lost Zion Williamson to a knee injury in the preseason. But now they’re 0-2 including a brutal overtime loss in Toronto to open the season. The fact they didn’t get the cash in that one was pretty tough to swallow for Pelicans’ backers and then the team came out flat last night in 123-116 home loss to Dallas. 

Houston is 0-1 after losing at home to Milwaukee Wednesday. Unlike in New Orleans, there’s not much to worry about here. The Rockets should easily finish in the top three in the Western Conference this season thanks to the addition of Russell Westbrook. The Rockets shot only 36.7% Wednesday night, a number they’re almost certain to improve on tonight. 

It would be easy to be “scared off” by this high total, but New Orleans has given up 130 and 123 points so far this season. Both their games went Over and now they face a Rockets team that is usually among the league leaders in points per game. On average, Pelicans’ games were the highest scoring of all teams last season. They allowed 116.8 PPG last season, which was tied for 28th, and that was with Anthony Davis playing a partial season. This promises to be a very high-scoring game. 10* Over Pelicans/Rockets

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns are going to need to learn to win w/o the services of Deandre Ayton because the former #1 overall draft pick is now suspended for 25 games due to failing a drug test. Ayton did have 18 pts and 14 rebounds on 9 of 14 shooting in the team's opening night win over Sacramento. Despite winning by 29, Phoenix actually trailed at halftime in that game. But they poured it on in the second half, outscoring the Kings 70-36. The encouraging sign is that they got contributions from a variety of players, so Ayton's absence may be overblown, at least in the short-term. We're taking the points w/ the Suns tonight in Denver as this looks to be a classic oddsmakers' overreaction. 

The Nuggets also opened their season w/ a win, 108-100 at Portland as 1.5-pt favorites. Last season was a big breakthrough for Denver as they finished second overall in the Western Conference. Wednesday's opener was a big deal to them as it was a bit of revenge for being eliminated by Portland in the second round of last year's playoffs. I expect Denver to regress some in 2019-20 as it's not likely that they'll be able to match LY's amazing 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. There were actually three other teams out West besides top seed Golden State that finished w/ better regular season point differentials than the Nuggets. We don't have them finishing top four in the Conference this year. 

This is a lot of points to lay, especially this early in the season. Again, you get the sense that oddsmakers had to react to the Ayton suspension. But it seems like an overreaction on this end. He'll be missed, but the Suns seem to be improved this year even w/o Ayton. His production cannot be replaced by one player obviously, but collectively the scoring slack can be picked up. One of the most encouraging signs from the first game was Phoenix holding Sacramento to 39.0% shooting. Ayton was actually a bit of a defensive liability and his replacement (Aron Baynes) is an upgrade on that end of the floor. Take the points here. 10* Phoenix

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): Last night saw the Pistons go into Indiana, without Blake Griffin, and upset the Pacers 119-110 as seven-point underdogs. Now Indiana was w/o Victor Oladipo as well. Griffin is out indefinitely w/ a hamstring injury. So let's see how Detroit handles his absence in the second game of a back to back. Maybe you're right to not expect much from the Hawks this year, but they should be improved after the doldrums of the past couple seasons. Plus they are rested here. Take the points. 

Atlanta is one of just four teams yet to play a game. This is a young team, save for Vince Carter (who is ironically the oldest player in the league), with 12 players at 25 years of age or younger. They added TWO lottery picks w/ De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish. After winning only 24 games in 2017-18 and 29 last season, the Hawks should improve more this year. They have covered the last three times they've played here in Detroit. They were also 23-17 ATS as an away dog last season. 

The Pistons typically have NOT been a good shooting team the last couple seasons, but did make 52.6% of their field goal attempts last night. Expect poorer shooting tonight. They were trailing going into the 4Q last night, but Luke Kennard made a trio of three-pointers down the stretch, finshing w/ 30 pts off the bench. For the game, Kennard made a career-best six three-pointers. Andre Drummond, who played 41 minutes, had 32 pts and 23 rebounds. Neither Drummond nor Kennard are likely to replicate those kind of numbers tonight. Indiana also lost T.J. Warren down the stretch last night, which was another key factor in the final result. 10* Atlanta

10* Over Kings/Suns (10:05 ET): Neither of these teams are exactly known for playing great defense. Both were bottom five in the league last year in points per game allowed. Phoenix also happened to be 29th (out of 30) in efficiency. There’s no reason to expect much improvement on that end of the floor this year, so look for a shootout here in the opener Wednesday night. Take the Over. 

Under new coach Luke Walton, look for the Kings to shoot a lot more three-pointers this season. We saw how that approach transformed Milwaukee under Mike Budenholzer last season. I’m not saying the Kings are going to be that successful, but they should score more and last year they did average 114.2 PPG. Buddy Hield was 4th in the league in 3-pointers made last season.

While Sacramento has the longest active playoff drought in the league (13 years), Phoenix has the fewest number of wins over the L4 seasons - by a pretty wide margin. They too have a new HC in Monty Williams, who has brought in a new offensive style, which should lead to increased scoring. It’s surprising that none of the four meetings last year saw more than 227 total pts scored, given the defensive ineptitude. Look for this to be a wild, up-and-down kind of game. 10* Over Kings/Suns

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Anyone who bought into the preseason hype of LeBron James in LA paid dearly last season as the Lakers were the second worst in the league ATS, finishing 34-46-2. Only the Knicks did a (slightly) worse job at the betting window. Now Anthony Davis is in LA, meaning the hype train has gained even MORE steam. But the Lakers aren’t even the best team in the city right now. The Clippers added Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and are one of the favorites to win the NBA Title. Remember - unlike the Lakers - the Clippers actually made the playoffs last season. The better team is getting points on Opening Night. Take the points. 

George will not play Tuesday as he is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. But what was the deepest bench in the league adding Leonard to the mix is more than enough to compensate. We’ve got the Clippers finishing no worse than third in the Western Conference this year as it will probably be either them or Houston finishing on top. The Lakers won’t be any better than fourth in our projections. The Clippers were 49-38-1 ATS last season, which was one of the league’s better records at the pay window. They are being undervalued here. 

It remains to be seen how well James and Davis will mesh. James missed a career-high 27 games last year and his defense began to slip rather dramatically. The Lakers aren’t nearly as deep as the Clippers either. This line jumping the fence (Clippers opened as favorites) is a pretty big deal as the Lakers were just 17-26-2 ATS as chalk last season. DeMarcus Cousins proved to be a worthless signing as he’s out for the year. Kyle Kuzma also won’t play tonight. 8* LA Clippers

10* Golden State (9:05 ET): I just can't see the Warriors losing this game. Not after what happened in Game 5. I'm not referring to the Kevin Durant injury, of course, though that should not be minimized. Rather, I'm talking about how Golden State saved its season AFTER the Durant injury, "stealing" the game by a score of 106-105. Another reason I can't see the Dubs losing here is the fact Toronto won the first two games played here in Oakland. Them going 3-0 SU at Oracle Arena just seems far-fetched. I'll gladly lay the short number here as I'm concerned about the Raptors' psyche. 

The loss of Durant is obviously significant. The Warriors lost three of the first four Finals games without him (though they were previously 5-0 w/o him since the initial injury). But the Game 5 comeback did not require his presence. It was the "Splash Brothers" (Curry & Thompson) combining to hit three consecutive three-pointers (after being down six) late in the fourth quarter. I've said previously that if there's one team that could overcome an injury to a player the caliber of Durant, it would be the talent-rich Warriors. They still have four former All-Stars on this roster, one of them a former league MVP himself (Curry).

Durant did have 11 pts in 12 mins in Game 5, but after the injury took place, Golden State still expanded its lead to as many as 14 points. (By the way, it should also be pointed out that Kevon Looney reaggravated his injury & is also done for the series). Now they are back at home where they don't lose often - let alone three times in a row. That's the key for me as this one seems destined to go to a Game 7. Toronto was minutes away from its first ever NBA Title and now has to go to a hostile environment instead. I admit that this is far more of a "gut" play than a technical one, something I don't do often. But it's the right call here. 10* Golden State

10* Golden State (9:05 ET): While it's the Warriors' fifth straight year in the Finals, this particular edition appears to be in no way as dominant as the previous four (three of which won at all). After taking a 123-109 loss in Game 3 (at home!), the Dubs have now trailed by double digits in each of their last six games. They've actually won four of those, but no Kevin Durant and no Klay Thompson proved too big of an obstacle to overcome Wednesday night. Thankfully, Thompson is going to be back for Game 4. Off a loss, I'm laying the short number w/ Golden State at home.

Few gave them a chance of winning this series, but the Raptors are definitely making everyone sit up and take notice. While it hasn't been quite the same stifling defense that we saw in the first three rounds (held Orlando, Philadelphia and Milwaukee under 100 PPG), Toronto has held Golden State to exactly 109 pts in all three games, which is 8.4 PPG under its season average. Offensively, the Raptors have hit on all cylinders in two of three games (should be easy to figure out which two!). Game 3 saw them shoot 52.4% overall, their highest FG% in any game this postseason. All five starters scored at least 17 points, including Danny Green going 6 of 10 from three-point range. I just can't envision a similar offensive showing from the Raptors here.

Meanwhile, Golden State should certainly improve offensively w/ Thompson back in the fold. They shot just 39.6% from the floor in Game 3, their LOWEST field goal percentage in any game this postseason. Without Durant, the Dubs had managed just fine, losing only one time (Game 1 in Toronto). Steph Curry has shown he's more than capable of picking up the scoring slack, which should be assumed considering he's a former league MVP himself. Curry just went for 47 points in Game 3, his career playoff high. You have to assume Golden State will be a lot better on both ends of the floor here. They are 8-3 ATS following a SU loss going back to the regular season. Not since X-Mas have they been off a DD loss and lost again their next time out. 10* Golden State

10* Under Raptors/Warriors (9:05 ET): Game 1 saw me cash my *10* Game of the Year (on Toronto), now here's my top total. Given how I played Game 2 (won w/ the Under), it should come as little shock how I'm playing this one. With an injury-riddled Golden State team facing a Toronto side that has played outstanding defense all throughout the playoffs, we should be in for a low-scoring game here in Oakland on Wednesday night. Raptors' games have been far lower-scoring in the playoffs than in the regular season, averaging just about 206 PPG. Take the Under here.

The big story heading into Game 3 is on the injury front for Golden State. It's still not known when Kevin Durant is going to return. The Warriors have done pretty well w/o their leading scorer, going 6-1 SU dating back to the close out game of the Houston series. But now they've lost Kevon Looney for the rest of the series and a hamstring is threatening to keep Klay Thompson out for Wednesday. If it doesn't keep Thompson out, it will at least limit him. It'll likely be Quinn Cook absorbing more minutes now and while he made 3 of 5 three-point attempts in Game 2, I don't see a repeat of that in Game 3. 

Toronto held its previous three opponents (Orlando, Philadelphia & Milwaukee) to 99.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting. The Bucks were the only team to score more than Golden State in the regular season and they were held to 102 pts or less in regulation the last four games of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Warriors have been held to "just" 109 pts each of the first two games. Look for Toronto to go more "box-and-one" on defense for Game 3, a zone approach that worked well near the end of Game 2. The Warriors missed their first eight shot attempts once the Raptors switched. The Under is 13-6 in Golden State's last 19 home games and 6-2 when Toronto is off an ATS loss. 10* Under Raptors/Warriors

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): Purveyors of the famed "zig zag theory" (bet the ATS loser of the previous game) may be quick to hop on the Warriors here, but allow me to pump the brakes on that notion right off that. Isn't a big part of the zig zag theory anti-public perception (i.e. buy low on a team that just lost)? My read here is that most are going to expect Golden State to bounce back from the 118-109 loss in Game 1. But for all the same reasons I liked the Raptors in the series, I like them again here. They're again undervalued. They play great defense. Kevin Durant is still out. So lay the short number w/ the home team.

Golden State was off a long layoff going into Game 1 as they swept Portland in the Western Conference Finals. But that was a highly misleading sweep to say the least. In three of the four games, they trailed an inferior Blazers squad by double digits. Before that series, no team in NBA Playoff history had ever come back to win TWO straight when trailing by that many. The loss of Durant has become an underrated factor because the Warriors were able to sweep that last series (and because they closed out Houston w/o his services). I'd like to now reiterate something I said in my Game 1 analysis & that's the Dubs have been one of the WORST teams to bet on this season. Only the Lakers & Knicks had worse regular season ATS records.

Something else worth reiterating is that Toronto has played outstanding defense in the playoffs. They held the previous three opponents (Orlando, Philadelphia & Milwaukee) to 99.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting. At home is where the numbers get real impressive, especially if you take away the fact that Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a double overtime game (where Toronto barely trailed). Do that and the Raptors are giving up just under 96 PPG in regulation here at the Air Canada Centre. They just held the Bucks, who were the only team to average more points per game in the regular season than the Warriors, to 102 pts or less in regulation each of the last four games. Golden State was obviously held under its season average in Game 1. 10* Toronto