8* Arkansas (7:30 ET):  When the Hogs pulled off a 74-71 upset of then #5 Texas A&M (I was on it!) back on January 27th, things appeared to be trending in a very positive direction in Fayetteville. In fact, the Razorbacks would go on to cover their next three games as well, including a blowout of Tennessee.  But, all of a sudden, the team has now dropped three in a row, the latest coming as big 16.5-point favorites at home vs. Auburn on Wednesday night. This, in my opinion, has led to a massive swoon in value that we can now take advantage of tonight. Consider that they last time the Hogs faced Missouri, they won 94-61 and that was in Columbia. So, I wouldn't be the least bit concerned about having to lay double digits here.

That first meeting was an absolute bloodbath with Arkansas shooting 62.7% (school record for an SEC game) overall, handing Missouri its worst ever home loss. The Tigers failed to even make a single basket over the first 6:32 of the game. Obviously, replicating such a one-sided performance will be somewhat difficult, but those banking on the revenge angle need to be aware that Mizzou has not won a single game on the road all season! You read that correctly.  They are 0-11 SU outside of Columbia, 0-8 SU in "true" road games, while getting outscored by 16.3 points per game. After opening SEC play 1-10 straight up, they've bounced back with consecutive outright victories. But just like Arkansas' recent from, that has given us some better value for this rematch.

This is the first time in two seasons under HC Kim Anderson that Missouri has won B2B SEC games.  They shot lights out (54.5%) in the win over Tennessee last Saturday and both the Vols and South Carolina (who Mizzou beat Tuesday) shot well below 40 percent from the field.  With the Arkansas offense averaging a strong 85.9 PPG here in Fayetteville on 47.7% shooting, I look for the tables to turn. Note that the Razorbacks let Auburn shoot better than 60% from the floor Wednesday and the two games prior saw them unable to make anything, especially in a dismal effort at Mississippi State where they finished 16 of 72 from the field. I'm talking simple regression to the mean here and we can lean on the fact the Razorbacks are a strong 5-1 ATS in this price range (-9.5 to -12) at home the L3 seasons. 8* Arkansas

10* Appalachian State (3:30 ET):  Anytime, I type the name of "App State," the first thing that comes to mind will always be the football team upsetting Michigan back in '07.  But here, as a favorite, the basketball team seems like a pretty good value too.  The Mountaineers, just 6-20 SU on the year, are certainly reeling w/ the last six games all ending up as losses. But not only did they lose as a six-point choice here at home to South Alabama on Thursday; two of their three games previous to that saw them lose by exactly one point. Contrast that with the fortune of today's opponent, Troy, who has two one-point VICTORIES over its last four games, plus another close decision that went their way earlier in the week, a 61-54 upset of aforementioned South Alabama, as a 2.5-point dog on the road. I think it's time for the tables to turn in this Sun Belt matchup.  Lay the short number.

Appalachian State's last win actually came at the expense of Troy.  It was back on January 28th when they pulled a 75-71 upset as 3.5 point road underdogs, 75-71.  Overall, they shot the ball much better than the Trojans in that game. Curiously, the Mountaineers are just 3-7 SU at home despite averaging 76.8 points per game, which is well above their overall season average.  They are basically dead even in points scored vs. allowed here, so there's been some close defeats, including a one-point loss to LA Monroe their last time here. There was another one-point loss back on January 25th (101-100) vs. Georgia Southern (no overtime!) that saw them blow a five-point lead w/ just under one minute remaining. So while the record looks bad, there have been a number of games that could have easily gone the Mounties' way. They are 1-7 SU in games decided by six points or less, the only win coming against today's opponent, Troy.

As for Troy, they have pulled off a total of three upsets in the last four games alone w/ those victories coming by a total of six points.  So, you can see the thin line that exists between the two teams' recent form.  Prior to taking three of the last four games, the Trojans had dropped nine of ten, so they were due for a little "market correction" themselves and responded accordingly. Now, it App State's turn. Troy is only 8 for its last 30 ATS against teams with a losing record (1-8 ATS this season) and they have benefited greatly from terrible shooting from their opponents the L2 games. Appalachian State is due to improve from B2B games where they shot only 30 percent from the field.  10* Appalachian State

8* Georgetown (12:00 ET):  We know the struggles that highly ranked teams have had not only covering, but even winning outright, against unranked foes this season. One of those situations presents itself early Saturday w/ Xavier paying a visit to D.C. to face Georgetown. Now, the Hoyas have already upset the current 8th ranked team in the country, in Cincinnati, 81-72 (+9.5). So, by comparison, this line looks like a real bargain. Granted, G'town has had its fair share of struggles of late. They just lost here at home earlier in the week, as a 2.5 point favorite, to  Seton Hall and that makes it five losses in the last six games overall for them.  But with the exception of an 87-76 defeat at the hands of Butler, they've been close virtually every time. Take the points here.

Xavier is a team currently getting plenty of "run" for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and that's probably based on their record (now 23-3 SU). But I'm not so sure they are deserving of that distinction. The Musketeers have survived their fair share of close calls this season, although I concede that they did look impressive earlier this week in dispatching of Providence. But the 52 pts scored in the first half there were their second most all season before halftime. There were also a number of individual performances unlikely to be duplicated here. One came from Myles Davis, who delivered a triple double. Another was from Trevon Bluiett, who scored 17 points alone in the first half (finished w/ 23). That's more than he'd registered in six of the last seven games. Those banking on the revenge angle here best think again as the Musketeers are 0-4 ATS the L3 seasons seeking revenge for a home loss. This is also a massive lookahead as they have another revenge game, this one vs. #1 Villanova, looming on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Georgetown couldn't seem to buy a shot on Wednesday in their second poor shooting effort of the season against Seton Hall.  Their top two scorers were a combined 10 of 31 from the field, including 2 of 13 from three-point range. This is a team that averages 8.2 made three-pointers per game, most in the Big East.  They shot 51% from the field against Xavier last month, including 10 of 25 from three-point range. A 2-6 SU record in games decided by five points or less indicates this team is more "unlucky" than bad and they're certainly more than capable of upsetting a slightly overrated Xavier team for a second time this season. 8* Georgetown

10* Utah (10:35 ET): Well, look at this. I went AGAINST the Jazz last night as they played a "make up game" in Washington and wound up losing, 103-89, a game the oddsmakers had as a virtual Pick 'em.  The same holds true tonight, but the (big) difference is that Utah is back at home where they are a strong 17-10 straight up (just 9-17 SU on the road) including five straight wins here. Defense is another key here. I wrote in yday's analysis how the Jazz's defensive numbers slip considerably when out on the road. But here at home, they're allowing just 93.4 points per game, a major reason why they are #3 in the league in PPG allowed. That comes in handy here against a Boston team that's due to decline offensively after averaging a stunning 116.8 PPG its last five games.  Look for Utah to bounce back tonight.

Now the Celtics offensive numbers are clearly a bit skewed based on their final game before the All-Star Break where they had to go to overtime to beat the Clippers, 139-134.  Overall, it was their ninth win in the last 11 games.  What's odd, however, is how much better Brad Stevens' team seems to perform when playing w/o rest. They are 9-4 ATS in those games, but only 22-19-1 ATS in all others. The three-year trend, which encompasses Stevens' entire tenure, is something similar. I like this team and have them rated as the third best in the East. But defensively, the number of points allowed recently has not been good and I cannot see them continuing to maintain that blistering pace we've seen on offense. 

Utah is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite (were bet to that role late vs. Washington last night).  Going back to the final game before the Break, they've now dropped B2B games, but before that had won seven in a row and that streak coincided with the return of a healthy Rudy Gobert. Now they've brought Shelvin Mack into the fold to address the lack of depth at point guard. This is a team whose underachieved as the Jazz have the point differential of a 29-win team, which would be fifth best in the West. They are undervalued overall, but especially tonight, which is something we often see when a team is playing in the second night of back to backs. 10* Utah

8* San Antonio (10:35 ET):  The Spurs are off a loss here (and a bad one at that), so you know what that means. Take them! This season, when off a loss, Greg Popovich's crew is a ridiculous 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread with an average point differential of +20.6 points per game. When playing w/o rest, they are 10-0 SU and outscoring their opponents by 12.9 PPG. So history is certainly on San Antonio's side here and it's a very favorable draw in terms of opponent as well with this matchup against the Lakers. Remember, no travel is involved here for the Spurs as they played at Staples Center last night. The Lakers, who covered their last five games before the All-Star Break, are clearly due for a downturn. Lay the points here.

With the decision to rest Kawhi Leonard last night, it almost seemed as if Popovich was "conceding" one to the Clippers.  The 86 points the team scored were their second fewest in a game all season, only ahead of a X-Mas night loss at Houston.  The 34 first half points did mark a season-low and note that it was just the fourth time all year that they did not lead in the 1H.  Leonard (calf) is listed as questionable for tonight, but with or without him, look for a defensive improvement here from the Spurs. They have given up an average of 98.8 points per game the L5 contests, yet remain - by far and away - #1 in the league in terms of defensive efficiency as their 95.4 points allowed per 100 possessions is nearly four points better than the #2 team.  That's the same gap that exists between the #2 and #16 ranked teams. The Lakers are last in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, allowing 108.2 points per 100 possessions.

Despite the five-game ATS win streak, I still have the Lakers rated last in my own personal power ratings.  They are being outscored by 10.7 points per 100 possessions (league worst) while San Antonio is +13.4 in that department, second best in the league (trailing only Golden State).  I still feel that this spread should be closer to -20!   Taking bigger numbers, the Lakers have covered the last two times they've played the Spurs. But San Antonio still remains the league's best ATS team (34-20) and is still slightly ahead of the Warriors in YTD point differential.  8* San Antonio

8* Phoenix (9:35 ET):  Over the last two months, there hasn't been a team any worse than the Suns, who are a ghastly 2-24 straight up over their last 26 games including nine straight losses coming into tonight. As expected, the team finally rid itself of Markief Morris, trading him to the Wizards. A fresh start is probably best for both parties. Before you go writing off Phoenix here, be aware that I did take them when they last hosted Houston, which was earlier this month. Taking a smaller number, they did cover and actually led outright in the fourth quarter. Though they've lost five in a row at home, the Suns remain far more respectable here compared to on the road. As I've said many times throughout the year, Houston simply isn't very good and is undeserving of this price range, particularly on the road. Take the points.

Although it appears that they did not want to, Houston will be keeping Dwight Howard for the rest of the year. Personally, I was not surprised to see the market so cold for him.  But the bottom line here is that with or without Howard, the returns here have been incredibly disappointing. The Rockets have the point differential of only a 24-win team. They're quite lucky that the Western Conference is much weaker this year.  Laying points, the record is just 14-21 against the spread and that includes 0-2 on the road when laying somewhere between -6.5 and -9.  Defensively, this team is a disaster as it gives up 108.6 points per game on the road.  Only Sacramento is worse overall on that end of the floor.  The win earlier in February over Phoenix represents one of just two victories the Rockets have over their last eight games.

Over its last six games, believe it or not, the Suns have been rather competitive.  A 91-78 loss to Dallas on January 31st was totally misleading as they actually led outright in the fourth quarter, similar to when they hosted Houston. They've also covered at Toronto.  Their last two games were against Oklahoma City and Golden State, two of the top three teams in the league, and it was actually a four-point game entering the fourth quarter against the former while they covered vs. the latter. What I'm saying is that the Suns are getting closer under interim HC Earl Watson and here is where they may very well break through w/ their first SU win for him.  8* Phoenix

8* Miami (8:05 ET):  The line here is high due to the fact the Heat will be w/o Chris Bosh and probably Hassan Whiteside as well.  But, as I often say, it's wise to "buy low" on bad news and that's what we have here, so let's take advantage accordingly.  Both the Heat and Hawks had somewhat disappointing first halves to the season and I simply do not believe  Atlanta deserves to be in this price range against any decent foe. The line is clearly affected here by Bosh's absence as my own personal power ratings say this number should be closer to -5.5 if both teams were at full strength. I'm not sure Bosh is worth a full four points.  Note that the underdog has won straight up each of the previous three matchups between these two this season, Miami taking the last two.  Take the points.

Miami drew a couple of tough opponents at home right before the All-Star Break, the Clippers and San Antonio, and lost to both.  Those results also serve to drive up the number here.  I'd like to see the Heat get back to playing better defense as over the L5 games, they're allowing an average of 103.8 points per game. That's way above their season average of 96.3 PPG allowed, which is the lowest in the entire Eastern Conference (#2 overall in the league).  Note that at no point this season have the Heat allowed 100+ points in three straight games. They've allowed 100 and 119 the L2 games, so the improvement I'm looking for should be coming. The Hawks have yet to crack the 100-point barrier against the Heat this season, scoring 98, 88 and 87 points.

Atlanta got swept in a home and home by Orlando, but then closed its first half by blowing out the Bulls (in Chicago), 113-90.  There was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this team at the trade deadline as rumors were abound that the core would be broken up. No such thing happened, but still I wonder if the mentality of the front office starts to "trickle down" to the court.  Working on three or more days rest, the Hawks are 1-3 SU/ATS while getting outscored by 11.5 points per game.  They've also struggled in division games, getting outscored despite a winning record. Offensive numbers are set to decrease here as well after averaging 108.6 PPG their last five. 8* Miami

8* Cornell (7:00 ET):  To many, this is nothing more than a matchup of Ivy League bottom feeders, but I see a ton of value on the Big Red here. They beat Dartmouth earlier in the year, 77-73 as 3.5-pt road underdogs. Therefore, it's difficult to understand why they're not getting more credit for being the home team in this rematch. I suppose part of the reason has to be a four-game losing streak, including an outright loss here to Penn last Saturday. But again, a team coming off an outright loss at home should be expected to bounce back their next time out, especially if at home yet again. Dartmouth, though off a double-digit win over Brown (again affecting line here), is nothing special and is a terrible 1-9 SU on the road this season. Lay the short number.

Dartmouth had lost five in a row before winning Saturday.  That victory over Brown was just their second in Ivy League play as they became the last team in the league to reach that benchmark.  It was easily their most impressive performance against a conference opponent as well as they shot 50% overall and dominated Brown on the boards. But these Friday games that the Ivy League always plays haven't treated the Big Green well recently as they're 4-14 L18 ATS including 0-4 ATS this season. Overall, this team is just 18-34 ATS its last 52 games. As I mentioned earlier, they have been dreadful on the road, going 1-9 SU, a mark which includes an 0-7 mark vs. lined opponents. That one road win came at the expense of Maine back in December.

The final score from Cornell's last game was a tad bit misleading in the sense that it was the largest deficit (eight points) the Big Red faced against Penn.  The 56 points allowed after halftime was troubling, but note that Penn had a player go for a career-high.  This will be just the third time that Cornell has been favored this season, but again, taking into account the result of that first meeting vs. Dartmouth, they should be favored by more. Their defense is generally much better here at home and I see their own shooting improving as well (just 40.8% in conference play). On the road, Dartmouth allows its opponents to make 49.9% from the field, including 38.6% from three-point range.  8* Cornell

8* Cal Poly SLO (10:00 ET): At first glance, Cal Poly doesn't seem like a team you'd want to lay this many points with, home or not, especially following a high-scoring effort like the one they just turned in on Saturday (beat UC Riverside 86-78). The Mustangs are only 9-15 SU for the year, below .500 here at home and 0 for their last 6 against the spread following an 80+ point performance. But if you look a little more closely, there's something rather interesting going on with the line here. Despite receiving very little support from bettors, the number has moved up. That's a clear indication to me that the so-called "smart money" is on the home favorite here. Lay the points.

The Big West is not a strong league this year. Only three teams are above .500 in conference play. Cal Davis is not one of them as they just lost 57-48 at home to Long Beach State over the weekend. While it might seem reasonable to call for a bounce-back type performance from the Aggies after shooting a woeful 34.7% from the field Saturday, poor offensive showings have been all too common for this team. Saturday was the third time in the last four games they were held under 60 points and 35% shooting. That's not a good sign considering a 1-5 ATS record this season after scoring 60 pts or less.  For the year, the Aggies are only 2-9 SU away from home while averaging just 62.3 points per game. 

This will be a revenge spot for Cal Poly, who lost 66-52 in Davis last month.  They were four-point favorites there and it ended up being their lowest scoring game in Big  West play to date.  Because of that result, the market has shifted too much against them for the rematch.  Yes, they'd dropped five in a row before Saturday's win, but three of those losses were by six points or less.  What's more telling though is that they've lost five in a row to UC Davis (also 0-5 ATS) and in four of those games they were the favorite.  That won't happen again here.  8* Cal Poly SLO

8* Georgia State (7:30 ET):  GSU backers are not doing very well right now as their team has dropped NINE in a row at the betting window and all but two of those games have also resulted in straight up defeats. A visit from Sun Belt leader Arkansas Little-Rock may not sound especially promising, but I think that the points are in this Thursday night matchup. Note that Georgia State's last two games were both one-point losses where they were favored on the road.  In fact, they've been favored in all but one of the nine games during this monumental ATS slide, that being when they played at...Arkansas Little Rock. The spread for that game was +7.5, so by comparison this number looks like a bargain even though GSU lost that first matchup by 10. Take the points here.

Arkansas Little Rock has just two league losses all season and its 22-3 SU record has them behind only Villanova and Xavier for the best current win percentage in the entire country.  This Trojans team is excellent defensively (just 58.6 PPG allowed), but as you might have guessed, their overall scoring margin isn't nearly as impressive on the road.  They are off a 68-64 upset at UL-Lafayette (were 3.5-pt dogs). But what's interesting is that they have failed to cover each of the last four times they have had to lay points on the SBC road, including two outright losses. One of those came last Saturday at LA Monroe, 86-82. That makes this the Trojans' third straight road game, a tough spot for any team, and they'll also be at Georgia Southern on Saturday. Another "slip up" is quite likely in my estimation for a team that played a sub-250th ranked non-conference schedule.

It was a bad shooting night for Georgia State (34.5%) Saturday at Troy. Their 53 points scored matched their low for the season in conference play, tying what they had vs. Arkansas Little Rock in the first meeting. Offense has admittedly been an issue for the Panthers recently, but defensively they can hang. They allow just 64.6 PPG for the year. Saturday's loss was just brutal as they held Troy to only two made field goals over the final 8:50 of the game. Unfortunately, they came on the final two possessions. One was a three-pointer that made it a one-point game (still in GSU's favor) and the next a layup that won the game w/ just 10 seconds remaining. Again, the previous game was also a one-point loss (at South Alabama) and that went to overtime. This team is due for a break.  8* Georgia State

10* Washington (7:05 ET):  The Wizards have had major problems winning at home this season as their 11-16 SU mark here at the Verizon Center is the third worst home record in the East and sixth worst overall in the league, trailing only Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Phoenix and the Lakers. Not coincidentally, those are the teams that comprise the five worst overall records in the sport. The Wiz, while disappointing, aren't in that category so I would not be surprised to see them improve their play here at home in the second half. It starts by hosting Utah in a game that supposed to be played last month, but had to be postponed due to a winter storm.  With the Jazz having played its last three games before the All-Star Break on the road and a date w/ Boston looming tomorrow night, this is not a good spot for them at all.

Due to the rescheduling, Washington will actually be playing three games in three nights, something no team has had to do since Indiana three years ago. Maybe that catches up with them by the weekend, but honestly there's probably no better time to have this scheduling quirk that right after a long layoff.  Consider that the Wizards are 4-1 SU this season when working on three days rest. The Jazz, meanwhile, are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by an average of 10.5 points per game.  This matchup will be an interesting clash of styles as the Wiz play at the league's fourth fastest pace while Utah plays at the slowest. If Washington can successfully push the tempo, they should be able to simply outscore the Jazz, who average only 97.8 PPG.

Utah is reliant on its defense, which gives up the third fewest number of points per game in the league, trailing only San Antonio and Miami.  But, on the road, the number of points allowed balloons to 99.7 PPG and that's a major reason why this team is a lousy 9-16 straight up in such games. Even worse is that they are 4-14 SU as road underdog and not getting much help, if any, from the oddsmakers here dooms them. This team had been hot before the Break, but that was mainly due to a stretch of home games against inferior opponents. The last time we saw the Jazz, they lost outright in New Orleans, ending a seven-game win streak. The Wizards win here. 10* Washington

8* William & Mary (7:00 ET): W&M is one of just a handful of "original" Division I schools never to make a single NCAA Tournament. The Tribe are desperately trying to change that this year. They come into tonight's game tied for third in the Colonial after dropping B2B games (as favorites), placing them three games back of conference leader UNC Wilmington, who comes calling here. So this is a massive opportunity for W&M to cut into that lead, not to mention that it's a revenge spot to boot as UNCW was able to pull out a 97-94 win over the Tribe last month. That game went into overtime and saw UNCW's Denzel Ingram, who is their second leading scorer, go for a career-best 30 points. As a team, the Seahawks also made 13 of 27 three-point attempts. I do not see history repeating itself, however.  Lay the short number.

You may be totally unaware of this, but UNC Wilmington has won 11 in a row, the third longest active streak in the country and a school record. The Seahawks last loss occurred all the way back on January 7th, at Towson by a score of 76-60.  They are +7.2 points per game in conference play, but just 7-6 ATS as more often than not they are favored.  Over the L6 games though, they've gone 5-1 ATS only failing to cover when asked to lay double digits against Elon.  Saturday saw them down James Madison, 78-68 (as 9.5-pt favorites), due to going 10 of 28 from three-point range and converting 18 Dukes' turnovers into 19 points. With William & Mary holding visitors to just 39.3% shooting overall and 28.6% from three-point range here at Kaplan Arena, I don't see UNCW benefiting from such luxuries again. They did shoot only 39.3% overall vs. JMU.

The 99 points allowed by William & Mary on Saturday (at Towson) were the most they'd given up in a game since 1996.  They were actually two-point favorites in that contest, but like Hofstra two games ago, the Tigers couldn't miss. Again though, W&M has been a stout team defensively over the course of the season, so I view these last two performances as a blip on the radar.  The Tribe certainly has no issues scoring as they average 79.8 PPG on 48.5% shooting for the year here at home. With a double digit scoring differential here, I think home court makes all the difference in the world tonight as the Tribe get their revenge and move up in the CAA standings. 8* William & Mary

10* Over Nevada/San Jose State (10:00 ET): Some of the recent shooting percentages in games involving either Nevada or San Jose State, whether it be themselves or their opponents, have been downright putrid.  Case in point, Nevada's last three opponents have all shot below 35% from the field w/ Fresno State being at a downright awful 29.9% Saturday (yet that game still finished up 77-72 in the Wolfpack's favor due to overtime). With San Jose State, they had held three straight opponents below 35% shooting (two under 30%) prior to a 74-58 loss at New Mexico on Saturday where they shot just a hair over 30 percent themselves. Speaking of bad shooting, that is what we have seen from these two sides the last two times they've met, especially from Nevada behind the arc where they were 0 for 17!  This total is quite low and I figure the shooting will improve.  Take the Over.

It's six straight Unders for San Jose State, but before that they had gone 10-5 Over to start the season.  Over the last five, the Spartans are giving up an average of just 63.8 PPG.  This has been a pretty good defensive team for much of the season, but that five-game average is about 10 points below the overall season average. Offensively, they average 76.4 PPG at home this year, but are at only 65.0 PPG their L5 games overall. So, you can see how a return to season-long averages would lead one to believe that an Over is forthcoming. Also, this Nevada team averages 76.2 PPG and on the road gives up 75.4. Only four totals have been lower for the Wolfpack in MWC play and for SJSU that number is three.  So you can see that there's some value here.

The last four meetings between these two have all stayed Under lower totals. But with the rules changes in college basketball this season, it is not a surprise to me to see tonight's O/U line much higher. As mentioned earlier, Nevada can't be any worse from three-point range than they were the L2 games vs SJSU. Similarly, the Spartans are just 14 of their last 56 from behind the arc vs. the Wolfpac. Don't those shooting percentages almost HAVE to go up here?  The Over is 8-3 in Nevada road games this season.  10* Over Nevada/San Jose State

8* Indiana State (8:00 ET):  Despite only beating Bradley 75-60 (were -17.5) their last time out, Illinois State has still covered the spread by a cumulative 46 points its last four games due to pulling off three consecutive upsets prior to Sunday's win. Meanwhile, things have gone the opposite way at the betting window for Indiana State of late. Larry Bird's alma mater is 0-5 ATS its last five games and has lost outright four times despite being favored in every one of those games. Buying low and selling high is something I constantly preach and here we can do both. These teams have performed quite differently in games decided by six points or less this season w/ Illinois State going 6-2 straight up and Indiana State going 1-5 SU.  Take the points here.

It wound up not being that close at all the first time these two squads met w/ Indiana State prevailing 77-65 in Terre Haute despite facing a 34-28 halftime deficit. The key there was the Syacamores going 9 of 21 from three-point range while the Redbirds were only 5 of 24. Neither team shot particularly well overall and we should probably expect more of the same tonight as both squads are below 42% from the field for the season. But in a low-scoring game, points are obviously at a premium and that always makes the underdog look more attractive. Especially when the dog happened to win the previous meeting by double digits and doesn't really seem to be getting credit for that victory. The revenge angle can often be overrated by the linesmakers/public and such is the case here w/ a line swing that's far too severe from the first meeting.

Two of Indiana State's last four losses have come in overtime, one of them in double overtime.  Saturday was a tough one in Missouri State as they actually led the Bears by four early in the extra period. Again, this is a team that has actually been favored in each of its last six games. But as an underdog, the Sycamores are 7-4 ATS w/ four outright upsets.  As for Illinois State, they treated me quite well two Saturdays ago w/ an upset of Wichita State as 13-point home underdogs and that carried over to another upset in the next game, as 10-pt pups over Evansville. But those results along w/ a double digit victory (shot nearly 55%) over a bad Bradley team have the Redbirds clearly overvalued for this one.   8* Indiana State

8* Baylor (9:00 ET): The Bears are off a very bad loss on Saturday, one that saw them fall short of the oddsmakers projection by a whopping 29 points. They were favored to beat Texas Tech by 10.5 here in Waco, yet ended up losing 84-66 due to the Red Raiders exploding for 51 points in the second half and finishing with an amazing stat line of 57.8 FG%/56.3 3-pt%/83.1 FT%. Needless to say, I expect Baylor to be much better defensively in this one as they seek to avoid a fourth loss in the last five games. Despite recent form, the Bears still remain in the Top 25 and this is the first time they've dropped B2B home games all season. They've already beaten Iowa State on the road and now get a chance to do the same in the Ferrell Center where they are 43-9 SU the L3 seasons. Lay the short number.

Iowa State comes in having just beaten Texas over the weekend. But they themselves had previously dropped three of four. In fact, the Cyclones haven't won B2B games since January.  I had the Over in Saturday's win (cashed rather easily), but outside of Ames this team's scoring average predictably dips and that's why they are only 4-4 SU in "true" road games. 89 points weren't enough at home on January 6th against the Bears, so it's difficult to imagine them winning here. I also find it difficult to imagine that we'll be seeing anything close to the second half vs. Texas where the Cyclones shot 67 percent from the field and held the Longhorns to just one point in the final 2:30 of the game. Making more free throws than Texas even attempted helped as well. Now on the road, they likely won't get to enjoy such an advantage.

Meanwhile, Baylor is an impressive 6-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points its last game, including a perfect 4-0 this season. We just saw them in this spot when they downed Kansas State (on the road), 82-72, the game after losing at West Virginia by a score of 80-69.  The Bears have beaten the Cyclone three straight times and four of the last five. Here at home, they are still outscoring opponents by 14.2 points per game for the season.  Having covered just one of their last eight games overall, this is a good opportunity to "buy low" on Scott Drew's team. ISU is 0 for 2 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a home loss. 8* Baylor

10* Texas A&M (9:00 ET): What is going on down in College Station? A&M had worked its way up as high as #5 in the rankings, but has since dropped five of six, including four in a row! All five losses came to conference foes and that leaves them behind Kentucky, LSU and South Carolina in the SEC standings. Consider though that it's often a thin line between the "jaws of victory" and the "agony of defeat" and that four of A&M's last five losses have been by five points or less. Four of them also occurred out on the road.  After going 0 for 2 on the road last week, the Aggies are back at home tonight and hosting an Ole Miss team primed for a letdown after beating Arkansas by 16 in Oxford over the weekend. Lay the number.

Texas A&M is 13-1 SU this year in College Station, winning by an average margin of 18.1 points per game.  Needless to say, that's quite impressive. The one loss came their last time here, 81-78 to South Carolina, a game where they were favored to win by double digits. The Gamecocks shot much better than the average visitor to College Station in that game, including 57.1 percent from three-point range.  Consider that for the season, A&M opponents are barely above 39% overall here. The Aggies certainly shot well themselves in Saturday's loss at LSU (55.8%), but could not overcome a -10 turnover differential and -17 point differential at the free throw line. That is how a seven point second-half lead quickly evaporates.  As I often state, "buying low" on a team is the way to go and right now A&M's stock is probably at its 2016 nadir.  So jumping on board now is the way to go.

Ole Miss has covered six of its last seven, including three straight, so they are at the opposite end of the recent spectrum compared to A&M.  The Rebels benefited from Arkansas shooting only 31.6% from the field Saturday, the lowest percentage by an opponent in SEC play.  In four games as a road underdog in conference play, the Rebels have lost every time, including by 22 at Kentucky.  A&M has probably one of the stronger home court edges in the entire league. Senior point guard Anthony Collins and fellow backcourt mate Jalen Jones were both limited due to sickness/injury in the LSU game, so a return to health should bring about a drastically different result. 10* Texas A&M

10* Butler (7:00 ET):  This is an excellent spot to once again 'buy low' on a team, in this case Butler, who is off a loss here at home (Xavier) and has legit revenge for an eight-point loss suffered at the hands of Creighton last month.  Yes, the revenge angle can be overrated. But, in this case, I don't see the Bulldogs getting beat twice by an inferior opponent nor do I see them dropping B2B home games. Butler has been a bit of a disappointment in Big East play, going just 6-7 SU after an 11-1 start to the season.  Their NCAA Tournament hopes are in dire need of a big win and considering how good they've been at home so far, here is where they'll get one. Creighton is at a disadvantage of playing its second road game in four days. Lay the points.

At home, Butler is 10-3 SU w/ an average margin of victory of 17.5 points per game. Remember that includes losing to Xavier on Saturday.  In that game, the Bulldogs shot just 33.3 percent from the field compared to 56.9 percent for their opponents.  That's highly irregular as we've been used to seeing Butler shoot the ball quite well here at Hinkle Fieldhouse (49.9%) while holding the opposition to 40.3%. They ended up being held 25 points below their overall scoring average for the season. It was their second lowest scoring game of the season w/ only a 60-55 loss to Villanova surpassing it. But if you don't think a team can bounce back, look no further than Xavier, who came in and shot so well after being held to 30 percent (including 1 of 21 from 3-pt range!) its previous game. Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones were held to a combined 14 points vs. Xavier, just the 11th time in 95 career games played together that they were both held to single digits. 

That awful shooting display by Xavier came against Creighton, who then followed that up w/ a road win over Marquette on Saturday.  The Blue Jays have won and covered three straight heading into tonight, something they had previously not accomplished all season. The key to the win streak has been on defense as Creighton has held all three opponents below their YTD average. But, as detailed above, Butler is poised to "break out" offensively in this one. Just six days ago, the Bulldogs won on the road against a good Seton Hall team.  They led Creighton on the road (by five) at the half in the first matchup, but made only one three-pointer in the second half while the Blue Jays wound up going to the FT line 29 times.  Look for those discrepancies to rectified this time around. 10* Butler

10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET):  This is a situation where we simply must take advantage of a team shooting the ball so well its last three games, that regression is almost inevitable. Wofford has connected on 61.5%, 55.8% and 58.2% of its field goals the L3 games, respectively.  Not surprisingly, all were wins and overall the Terriers have taken six of their last seven games. But the road has been a challenge for this team, particularly on the defensive end, as they are just 4-11 SU away from home this season. Situationally, this spot is tough as this will be their third games in five nights. Meanwhile, UNC Greensboro got the weekend off & that's a significant edge heading into this Southern Conference rematch.

UNC Greensboro has had a tough season and their struggles have continued recently w/ three consecutive losses, the most recent coming at last place VMI as 5.5-point favorites. Earlier in the year, they also lost at Wofford, 87-76 as seven-point dogs. Both teams shot the ball (over 50%) well overall in that matchup, but the difference was where Wofford did most of its damage. The Terrier were 11 of 23 from three-point range (UNC Greensboro was 5 of 17), not to mention 24 of 26 from the free throw line (UNCG was only 7 of 16!). I highly doubt those marks will be repeated again here. As you might have guessed, UNCG is a more impressive team at home (only 1 road win) as they shoot 38% from behind the arc.  The Spartans fell into a big early hole Thursday at VMI (trailed 44-27 at the half) as hot shooting by the opponent burned them. That should not happen again here at home.

Not only does Wofford have the added burden of playing for a third time in five days, but they also have a big showdown (at home) vs. second place Furman looming this weekend.  Having already beaten the Spartans this year, this shapes up as somewhat of lookahead spot for them. There is just no way they are going to be able to continue their recent ridiculously hot shooting and defensively there are issues here. On the road, opponents are shooting 50% against them this season, including 37.9% from three-point range. I look for UNCG to have a big breakthrough performance here. 10* UNC Greensboro

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): Arizona had the longest home win streak in the entire country snapped when they lost 83-75 to Oregon on January 27th.  Since then, they've won four in a row overall, two of those at home. Friday saw the Wildcats manage to outlast UCLA, 81-75, a game they were favored to win by 12.  Though they obviously didn't cover there, success did come at the betting window each of the previous three games.  Getting to play at the McKale Center for a second time this weekend is pretty big for a team that is outscoring its opponents by a full 20 points per game here for the season. Meanwhile, USC will be dropping out of the new rankings tomorrow due to losing at Arizona State Friday. It will be another loss here and a big one at that. 

As they showed Friday, the Trojans are not a particularly great road team. They give up an average of 78.9 points per game and despite being under that average at ASU, they still found a way to lose there. It was the offense that failed them, scoring 18 points fewer than their season average, though also giving up 47 points in the second half didn't help matters. Neither did 17 turnovers or getting beat up on the offensive glass. Arizona may have found itself down by 10 at the half to UCLA, but the bottom line is that they've beaten USC here in Tucson six straight times, the last three coming by a 70 point margin. The Wildcats have been able to win their last two games (at Washington, vs. UCLA) despite not really being at their best (40 percent shooting), which I think is key as I don't feel they'll be turning the ball over at the same rate (20 times) they did vs. Washington nor be as poor defensively as they were in the first half vs. UCLA.

This is of course a big revenge game from Arizona's perspective as they lost a four overtime decision to the Trojans in LA earlier in the season. That was a somewhat controversial finish w/ a foul called on the Wildcats leading to the final two point margin (103-101!).  At the time, it was UA's third straight road game, so hardly a great spot.  USC, like Arizona here, was playing its second home game of the weekend. The Wildcats were favored (by three) in that first meeting, so no surprise w/ the line being where it's at here.  Arizona is also 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss.  10* Arizona

8* Canisius (3:00 ET):  As I often say, the revenge angle can be quite overrated at times, but here it applies as Canisius looks to atone for an ugly 17-point loss, at home, suffered last month at the hands of MAAC rival St. Peter's. The Golden Griffins were actually eight-point chalk for that first meeting, so there's been a noticeable swing in the spread for today's game, but that swing in my estimation is too severe.  Something that caught my eye here is the line is actually now dropping in spite of the fact that St. Peter's has taken the majority of the bets. That's a sign that the so-called "smart money" is likely on the underdog in this one. Take the points.

When these teams played last month, Canisius shot the ball terribly, as in 29.7% overall from the field, including 7 of 28 from behind the arc.  St. Peter's meanwhile was actually at 51% overall and 7 of 17 from behind the arc.  I wouldn't look for such disparate shooting numbers today, in fact, I'm actually more concerned about St. Peter's defensive numbers (63.9 PPG allowed at home) than anything else.  The Peacocks have been able to win and cover B2B games due to holding their opponents below 60 points.  But, it's telling that they are not favored by more in this spot.  Part of the reason is because they've been outscored this season and offensively they're just not very good. They barely shoot above 40% for the year.

Canisius got blown out in their last game, 90-67 at Siena, but that too only serves to increase the value we are getting here.  They shot just 37.3% from the field on Thursday. Meanwhile, it's a minor edge w/ an extra day of prep as St. Peter's had to play Friday, making this the second game in three days for them.  It's all of matter of whose pace this game is played at as Canisius may be inferior defensively, but they also average 77.6 points per game themselves.  That previous matchup vs. St. Peter's happens to be the Golden Griffin's worst offensive showing of the entire year.  It is the only game all season where they failed to score at least 60 points.  It's a surprise that that they're only 1-7 ATS as underdogs this season, but also they'd been favored more often than not until recently. 8* Canisius

8* Boston College (1:00 ET): One of the "tell tale" signs of value is when you can get the same number taking a team at home as you did on the road. It's rare and certainly there will be some mitigating circumstances, but surely its something that when it happens, you must take advantage of. Such is the case this afternoon w/ an admittedly bad Boston College team. The Eagles are now 0-11 SU in ACC play following a narrow (as in 68-65) defeat at the hands of North Carolina, who was -20.5 for the game, Tuesday night. An earlier conference loss saw BC fall at Syracuse, 62-40, but now we're able to grab the same amount of points here as were available in the Carrier Dome last month. Yes, the first meeting ended up being lopsided, but the value is definitely there on the home dog today. Take the points.

Boston College might be 1-10 SU on the road or in neutral site games, but they're also a far more respectable 6-7 SU at home.  The discrepancy became more apparent with the result from their last game (vs. UNC), which was a far cry from the final margin of 27 points when they had to travel to Chapel Hill just ten days prior. We could be seeing a similar swing here today. The Eagles could manage only 15 points in the first half when they traveled to Syracuse, but I reckon that kind of performance won't be repeated here, nor will their 31.9% overall shooting from that first meeting. Syracuse, meanwhile, is just 5-5 SU outside of the Carrier Dome this season and one of those wins came by only two points (at Duke).  Until today, the Orange had yet to be an ACC road favorite at any time all season.

Syracuse has actually played its last four games all at home, so this could be a bit of a tricky spot. They did beat Florida State by a final score of 85-72 on Thursday, but are just 3-9 ATS the last three seasons after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. Also, keep in mind that B.C. has had two extra days to prepare here.  That's fairly significant as is the spread. Again, it was obviously too low the first go around but here there's been an overadjustment as I see B.C. still being hungry for that first ACC win of the season. 8* Boston College

10* Pacific (10:00 ET):  For a second time this year, Pepperdine just pulled a major upset at St. Mary's expense. Now, we get to go against them. The Waves were 13-point road underdogs in Thursday's 69-63 win over the Gaels, which did snap a three-game losing streak for them. However, they are still 7-1 against the spread their last eight games. But I correctly faded them that one time they failed at the betting window, that being an outright loss at home (as 12-point chalk) to Portland two Thursdays ago.  Being the favorite hasn't really treated Pepperdine all too well as they're just 3-4 ATS in that role vs. the rest of the WCC w/ two outright losses. Two of the wins came at lowly San Diego's expense. Take the points here.

Pacific, meanwhile, is off an outright loss here at home Thursday night to Loyola Marymount. The final score there read 77-72 in a game the Tigers were expected to WIN by five. But like Pepperdine, Pacific prefers to be in the underdog role as taking points had been the driving force behind a 7-1 ATS surge prior to losing to LMU. Keep in mind that they were actually a 17-point dog in an upset win over BYU last Saturday. That was the sixth straight time they'd covered when catching points, dating back to staying within five points of Pepperdine (as 9.5-pt dogs) on January 7th in what was a back and forth game. An inability to close killed Pacific Thursday as they led by eight late, but could only manage one point over the final four minutes. I expect them to bounce back in a second straight home game.

Meanwhile, it's the dreaded second road game in three night scenario for Pepperdine that's all too common in West Coast Conference play. This will be the third such situation for the Waves this year and they have yet to sweep any two-game set.  Last time in it, they fell by 11 at BYU. Given that they don't have a winning record on the road, I'm unconvinced that Pepperdine should be the favorite here, especially considering Pacific's 10-4 ATS mark as an underdog.  It was a colossal 38-15 edge in free throw attempts in that first meeting, plus Lamond Murray, Jr finished w/ a career high 31 points. Neither is likely to be duplicated here. 10* Pacific

8* Over Texas/Iowa State (8:30 ET): This is a big game in the Big 12 as surging Texas visits Ames to take on fading Iowa State. Though they just lost by three at Oklahoma (still covered as eight-point dogs though), the Longhorns have won seven of nine and covered seven straight for Shaka Smart. They've been able to do that thanks to a defense which has allowed just one of its last eight opponents to top 65 points, that being Kansas, who beat them in Lawrence. However, tonight presents a challenge as ISU averages 85.8 points per game here at home and these two teams have a history of high scoring games when facing off. That includes a 94-91 UT win in Austin last month, which went to overtime. Nevertheless, it was tied 87-87 at the end of regulation, meaning the extra five minutes was not needed for Over players. This total, surprisingly, is significantly lower than the first go around. Take the Over.

Both sides did shoot the ball pretty well in that first meeting, but there weren't a ton of free throws taken. Admittedly, that is something that's been a sustained issue for Iowa State, but I'm still going to project more free throws being taken tonight and that will offset any potential drop in overall shooting percentage. Furthermore, ISU hasn't needed much from the charity stripe in it's impressive scoring average this year as they shoot 50% overall, including 37.4% from three-point range.  At least on the road, Texas struggles to defend the arc. Opponents are hitting 37.4% against them in such games and even in Austin, the Cyclones were able to connect on 13 attempts from distance. 

The Under is 5-0 in Texas' last five games and had cashed seven straight times for Iowa State prior to Wednesday's 85-82 loss at Texas Tech. But that was another overtime game where the Over cashed in regulation. This seems like a really low total for a Cyclones team who is used to seeing totals as high as 170.5 (vs. Oklahoma).  It looks like they will get back forward Jameel McKay from suspension tonight and that's huge because he leads them team w/ a 58.5 FG%. Consider that five of the last six meetings between these two have gone Over the total as have eight of the last nine here in Ames.  10* Over Texas/Iowa State

8* Connecticut (8:00 ET):  The faithful in Storrs are still trying to figure out exactly what went wrong for their beloved Huskies Thursday night as what seemed like a sure victory (led Temple by 12 w/ just seven minutes to go) quickly turned into a 63-58 loss thanks to an improbable 23-6 run to end the game by the other side. That result did UConn's tourney hopes no favors as this team is now squarely on the bubble. So, they certainly can't afford another loss any time soon. Fortunately, a) they should be motivated by revenge here and b) they are catching Tulsa off a surprising result, that being a win over SMU as nine-point dogs. I can't see lightning striking twice in more ways than one, so I say lay the points.

UConn had its poorest offensive effort of the year when they traveled to Tulsa on January 14th.  The line there was in the pick 'em range, but the Huskies shot only 30.9% from the field en route to only 51 points. Since that time, they have won six of eight, including what happened on Thursday. Only one time all year has this team dropped B2B games and that came in early in the year w/ two straight three-point decisions vs. Gonzaga and Syracuse.  In fact, five of the team's seven losses this year have been by five points or less. Meanwhile, their average margin of victory here at home is a whopping 18.6 points per game.  The debacle against Temple saw them turn the ball over three times in the final 25 seconds, a dubious feat that I surmise won't be soon repeated.

As for Tulsa, Wednesday's win saw them beat the linesmakers' projection by a wider margin than any game previous to it.  That creates an excellent opportunity to 'go against' here. The Golden Hurricane have amassed a strong record in spite of a rather pedestrian scoring differential. They couldn't miss against SMU Wednesday, going 31 of 53 from the field (58.5%), but note that they actually trailed by as many as eight in the second half. It's impressive that they were able to win where no road team had won before this season, but now comes the inevitable letdown.  This is the first time in conference play that Tulsa has had to play B2B road games. 8* Connecticut

10* Boise State (4:00 ET): Perhaps no team in the country will be in a more ornery mood come Saturday than Boise State. That's because of what happened to the Broncos on Wednesday at Colorado State.  There, they were failed by both the referees and technology in a bizarre 97-93 double overtime loss that saw their game winner (at the end of the 1st OT) nullified due to the officials inability to properly rectify the fact that the clock was not started properly on the play.  The Mountain West has since come out and admitted Boise State should have won the game and HC Leon Rice is demanding his team be given the win. It was a critical loss for the Broncos as they are now in fourth, rather than second, in the conference standings. In comes Wyoming Saturday and they are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. Lay the points.

The Broncs opened MW play 6-1 SU w/ their only loss to first place San Diego State.  But they've since dropped four of five and are 0-5 ATS. Oddsmakers continue to price them in a range that connotates respect as just one time in league play have they been an underdog (at UNLV).  While they haven't been successful at the betting window (3-7 ATS) here at home, they are 11-2 SU with an average margin of victory of 15.1 points per game (averaging 81.6 PPG).  This is not the first time they've taken on Wyoming this year. Last month, they went to Laramie (where it's not easy to win) and prevailed 81-71 as seven-point chalk.  Going by that line, Boise State seems like a great value here now only having to lay a few more points at home.  This is an excellent opportunity to get in and "buy low" with the Broncos.

Wyoming is a terrible road team.  They are just 3-9 straight up outside of the high elevation of Laramie and have dropped five of six in MW play, the one win coming by just two at New Mexico.  The result they are off has the Cowboys overvalued heading into today as they just beat Utah State 84-65 last Saturday. The Pokes have had a full week to prepare here, but given the high level of motivation we're bound to see from the home side, that won't matter. Wyoming shot 50% their last game, but still is at just 41.1% overall in league play. 10* Boise State

10* Detroit (3:00 ET):  Sell on good news, buy on bad news. That's a mindset that I love to employ in College Basketball and we are able to put it to good use Saturday afternoon here in the Horizon League.  Milwaukee just pulled an upset Thursday night, 93-85 as 6.5-point dogs in Oakland, while Detroit is off a one-point loss (were favored by 2) here at home vs. Green Bay.  Milwaukee will be playing its fourth straight road games this afternoon, a tough spot no doubt, and I can't see their hosts dropping B2B games at home. Furthermore, it feels like the linesmakers have overadjusted considering the first meeting between these two was a three-point game (in Milwaukee's favor) and a 6.5-point spread. Detroit should be favored here as I like them to exact some revenge. Take the points.

Detroit has had some poor luck in conference play. At one point, they had lost four straight games by four points or less or in overtime. The Titans losing streak then reached five w/ a 91-83 setback at the hands of Northern Kentucky. But they quickly bounced back w/ three consecutive victories. Unfortunately, then came Thursday's 86-85 loss to Green Bay. Poor free throw shooting on a low volume hurt them there. While it was just their fourth home loss of the season, it was also their fourth in the last five home games. In other words, I expect them to turn things around shortly. Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in road games this year, an unsustainable trend from where I sit, so this is almost a perfect storm of sorts.

In the first matchup, Detroit actually held a six-point halftime advantage.  But they allowed 52 points after that, even though the Panthers finished only 5 of 24 from three-point range.  Neither of these teams are strong defensively, but of late Milwaukee has been particularly bad by giving up 84.0 PPG its last five. That's a major reason why they've lost outright three times during that span. Teams are shooting 38.8% from three-point range against them for the year. The Panthers are also just 1-2 ATS as road favorites in conference play, including an outright loss at Northern Kentucky last Saturday. A fourth straight road game catches up with them here. 10* Detroit

8* Buffalo (7:00 ET):  The reason for the suspension of Buffalo's leading scorer Lamonte Bearden has been revealed (marijuana) and he will continue to be out for the next few games. His absence did seem to cost the team Tuesday as they lost here at home to Toledo by just two points. That setback snapped a four-game SU and ATS win streak by the Bulls, who now trail first place Akron (best team in the MAC) by 1.5 games in the East Division.  The natural inclination is going to be to continue to fade UB w/o Bearden, but note that they were actually playing just fine w/o him vs. the Rockets as they led most of the way (by nine at half) and it was only when foul trouble struck that things went bad. I'm calling for them to bounce back as this is a good value in the wake of the Bearden news. Lay the short number.

Here at home, Buffalo is averaging a strong 81.3 points per game. They managed only 69 in Tuesday's loss to Toledo, which most will want to attribute to Bearden being out, but they actually shot the ball just fine (much better than Toledo, in fact). The issue was defense, or rather of lack of it in the second half where they gave up 43 points. Much of that damage came at the free throw line as the Rockets went 19 of 23, thus nullifying the fact that UB held them to just 37% shooting from the field, including 6 of 26 from three-point range. Incredibly, the Bulls attempted only nine free throws themselves in the game w/ the starting five accounting for only three of those!

I've yet to even mention tonight's opponent (probably should!). That would be Ohio, who is coming off a minor upset (were +1.5) at Ball State its last time out. The Bobcats are now just a game back of UB in the MAC East standings after winning four of five (only loss was to Akron), but the road had previously been unkind to them. OU lost its first three MAC road games, the most egregious result obviously being a 72-49 loss at Central Michigan.  Lack of defense has been an issue for the Bobcats, who give up 78.8 points per game outside of Athens. Look for the three-point shot to be the difference here as Ohio is allowing teams to shoot nearly 40% from behind the arc when on the road this season while Buffalo holds its opponents to just 28% here at home. Defense helps the Bulls overcome the loss of Bearden.  8* Buffalo

8* Indiana (9:00 ET):  These teams are tied a top the Big 10 in terms of scoring differential on a per possession basis, but that's of little consolation to IU who lost (as nine-point favorites) at Penn State Saturday night. That 68-63 setback allowed Iowa to take the lead in the conference, but the one game gap that exists between these two can be immediately closed if the Hoosiers are able to bounce back w/ a win tonight. Given that the game takes place in Bloomington, where the Hoosiers are a perfect 13-0 straight up this season, I like their chances.  Iowa's stock is quite high right now (ranked #4 in the country!) as they have lost only one time (at Maryland) since December 10th. But that stock is probably due to take a hit and I can't believe that the Hoosiers aren't getting more credit for being the home team here. Lay the small number.

Indiana would likely have a better record were it not for one key issue, that being turnovers, which have plagued them throughout the Big 10 campaign. They had been somewhat improving in that department recently, but against Penn State had 15 and that cost them. It also hurts that the Hoosiers haven't really been forcing turnovers either (just 21 L3 games) of late. But I view that as simply a temporary nosedive and nothing else. Consider that in the three games previous, IU had forced 43 TO's. What really burned them against Penn State was shooting only 36.2 percent from the field, including only eight made 2-pt field goals! Keep in mind that this is a team which averages 84.1 points per game on 51.1 percent shooting overall, including 42.2 from three-point range.  Those offensive numbers are downright historic as you'd have to go back to the 2001-02 Kansas team to find the last time a squad averaged more than 85 PPG while being above the 50%/40% thresholds. Here at home, the Hoosiers are averaging a whopping 91.1 PPG!

Iowa has won its last three games all by double digit margins (3-0 ATS), so again, they're stock is currently quite high. But I find it telling that they were 5.5-pt dogs at Maryland (and didn't cover, mind you), yet come in as closer to a Pick 'em here. All four Hawkeye losses this season have come away from home and three of those have been in the underdog role.  IU, meanwhile, is 17-7 ATS the L24 times it has been a home favorite of three points or less. Look for them to cure the turnover "ills" and bounce back offensively, leading to a big win.  8* Indiana

10* California (9:00 ET):  Right now, Oregon is the hottest team in the Pac 12 as they have won and covered six straight, leaving them 1.5 games up on the rest of the field. But, despite winning at Arizona (as seven-point underdogs), I'm not entirely convinced that the Ducks are the best team in the conference. Quite frankly, I'm a bit surprised that they come in as the favorite here in Berkeley considering they barely escaped w/ only a three-point win against Cal up in Eugene last month. I was on the Bears in that one and while I pushed at +3, many could have won as the number was bet up closer to tip off.  Cal is a bubble team, desperate for a win over a marquee opponent, and once again we can take advantage of the fact that one team has a little number next to its name (i.e ranked in the Top 25) while the other does not. Take the points here.

Cal's results in conference play have followed a predictable pattern: they win at home and lose on the road.  In fact, they have not lost at Haas Pavilion all year (14-0 SU, +15.8 PPG) including a perfect 5-0 vs. the rest of the Pac 12 following Saturday's big 76-61 win over rival Stanford.  There, the Bears jumped out to a 16-point halftime lead and never looked back, going up by as many as 26 at one point. As I've written about before, this is a talented team up front w/ plenty of size. I had them here at home against Arizona and they also downed Utah when the Utes came in ranked. Freshmen Ivan Rabb (five straight games w/ 10+ points) and Jaylen Brown (8 straight!) are both contributing in a manner that you like to see.

Oregon was able to beat Arizona on the road despite allowing 61% shooting in that game, which is hard to reconcile.  The Ducks' defense allowed Utah to shoot 50% from the floor Sunday, so there are defensive issues here.  Keep in mind that this team has lost at both Oregon State and Colorado earlier this year.  Looking back at the first meeting between these two squads it's easy to identify why Cal lost and that's the fact they were 0 for 12 from three-point range. That performance will not be repeated tonight. As expected, the Bears outscored the Ducks by a wide margin in the paint and that should be repeated here. Cal is the top defensive team in the Pac 12, giving up just 66.7 PPG on 38.8 percent shooting. Those numbers are even better here at home.  10* California

10* Eastern Washington (9:05 ET):  Something that you may be unaware of is that Eastern Washington has one of the strongest home court edges in the entire country.  The Eagles are a perfect 8-0 straight up playing in Cheney this season, which may not sound like anything special, but consider that their average margin of victory here is a whopping 25.9 points per game thanks to a 96.0 PPG scoring average on 55.7% overall shooting! Therefore, laying a relatively short number doesn't seem like too big of a risk, particularly considering their opponent is due to "nosedive" following an upset in their most recent game. Also, this is a revenge spot for EWU to boot as they fell 79-71 (as two-point chalk) at North Dakota back on January 2nd.

The upset I spoke of for North Dakota came Saturday at home vs. Weber State as the Fighting Hawks prevailed 78-71 as 4.5-pt pups. Nothing in particular really "stood out" in the upset, save for the obvious edge in free throw shooting that most home teams get to enjoy. North Dakota not only made more free throws than Weber State attempted, but their percentage (87.5%) at the charity stripe was key as well. Interestingly enough, this is a team whose season-long average there is only 67.6% and they have really benefited from their opponents shooting a terrible 59.9 percent from the line. On the road, I wouldn't look for North Dakota to enjoy the same free throw edge that they had at home vs. Weber State.

Eastern Washington has now won four straight and they and North Dakota are tied for third in the Big Sky at 7-4 SU in conference play.  So this game clearly carries a lot of importance. As alluded to above, there is some clear value w/ this line as the Eagles were two-point favorites when they visited Grand Forks and lost 79-71.  But the change in venue here is very significant as is the fact EWU shot only 38.2% on two-point attempts in that first meeting. Like I said earlier, the offensive numbers for them here at home are downright otherworldly, so the revenge angle (which is often overrated) definitely applies here. We're talking about roughly a 25 PPG swing in what EWU averages at home compared to on the road.  10* Eastern Washington

10* Under Pelicans/Thunder (8:05 ET):  New Orleans scratched out a win last night, 100-96 vs. Utah, thanks to a 29-19 scoring edge in the fourth quarter.  That was the team's second straight win while scoring 100+ points after suffering through a four-game losing streak where they failed to score 100 even one time. In terms of opponent, it's a big change tonight as they go from facing the Jazz (30th in pace of play) to facing the Thunder (#2 in offensive efficiency). Oddsmakers obviously then have to make a massive adjustment in the total and that's what we have here w/ the number more than 25 pts higher than what it was for New Orleans last night, when in addition to winning themselves, the Over just barely cashed as well. This would be the highest total they've seen all season though. Take the Under.

Oklahoma City is a hot team right now. They've won 14 of their last 16 games while averaging 112.4 points per game, last beating Phoenix 122-106 Monday night. Of the 10 games this season where the total has been 220 pts or higher, OKC has been involved in four of them. What's interesting is that this will be the first time all season that we have a total of 220+ and it's not some pairing of Warriors, Thunder, Rockets, Kings or Wizards. The Thunder have gone Over in seven of their last nine games overall, but both Unders saw totals higher than the 220 threshold. Clearly, recent results on both sides have influenced this number. Note that four of the last meetings between these two clubs have gone Over (one push), but we're looking at a substantially higher number than the last time they met & that game just barely got Over the total (by half a point).

Something that I expect to start improving is the Thunder's defense. Over the L5 games, they've given up an average of 108.4 PPG to opponents. The Suns even shot better than 50% from the field against them Monday night. But for the season, they are allowing just 98.9 PPG here at home. At the same time, OKC's own scoring average of 115.4 PPG from its last five contests should start to go down as well.  The Pelicans' O/U record has a strong correlation with whether or not they are at home vs. on the road as it's 19-7 vs. 6-19-1. The difference is that they average about seven full points per game less on the road. The Thunder are 7-1 Under this year when playing w/ exactly two days rest.  10* Under Pelicans/Thunder

8* Under Raptors/T'wolves (8:05 ET):  I had the Under in Toronto's game Monday night in Detroit and still easily cashed in spite of them shooting 55.7% (season-high for a Pistons opponent). It's hard to envision the Raptors shooting that well again, even against a pretty bad team like Minnesota, who is allowing an average of 107.6 points its last five games.  The Raptors' offensive numbers have been up for much of 2016, but as I discussed in the Under play Monday night, on the road they are still averaging only 99.1 PPG.  Offensive numbers might be set to decline for this team, but the defense should improve as they are Top 10 in efficiency and allow only 97.0 PPG. Minnesota, similarly, has seen higher scoring games than usual recently compared to YTD results. I'm going back to the Under w/ the Raptors here.

The T'wolves have seen a recent offensive surge themselves as they are averaging 106.0 PPG their last five contests. I do not suspect that they'll be able to keep that up.  Prior to a 116-102 loss, here at home, to New Orleans Monday night, they had shot 50% or better for three consecutive games, peaking w/ an otherworldly 57.5% against the defensively inept Lakers. The Raptors team they face tonight just gave up only 89 on the road in the victory over Detroit. In only three of their last nine games has Toronto allowed more than 97 points.  Minnesota averages just 99.1 PPG for the year at home where the Under is cashing at 60 percent when they are an underdog. The T'wolves current stretch of scoring 100+ pts in four straight games is their longest since mid-December.

So while Toronto should hold Minnesota in check, what about their own recent offensive numbers? They are impressive, but again, I wouldn't look for them to match Monday's shooting percentage, which was their highest in any road game all season. Minnesota's own defensive numbers are set to improve after allowing about four more points per game over their last five compared to the season-long average.  As a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, the Raptors are 2-0 Under this year and the Under is 16-9 when they face a team w/ a losing record.  This is set to be the highest total in any Raptors game in more than two months. Also, after shooting 23 of 39 from three-point range the L2 games, look for the Raptors to suffer a decline in that department as well. Speaking of three-point shooting, no team makes fewer per game than Minnesota and that helps here as well.  8* Under Raptors/T'wolves

10* Detroit (7:35 ET): This will be the third consecutive Pistons game where I am making a play and I'm trying to make it a perfect 3 for 3.  I faded them Saturday night in Indiana and they lost 112-104 as four-point underdogs. Then on Monday, I was all over the Under in their game (here at home) vs. Toronto and sure enough that ended up being an easy double digit winner. As I've mentioned previously, this team is only 5-8 straight up since its upset of Golden State back on January 16th. But as that upset proved, this is a team to be feared at home. They remain in the Motor City tonight for a game w/ a Denver team that has been punching winning tickets left and right lately, but that's a streak I don't believe will continue. Lay the points.

I think the Nuggets reached their proverbial "tipping point" Monday night when they were a road favorite (in Brooklyn) for just the second time all season. They lost (by just a single point), which shouldn't come as too big of a shock due to the fact this is a team w/ just 10 road wins to its credit all season and the majority of those wins came at the expense of bad teams. Having covered 11 of their last 13 games overall, I suspect we will see Denver start to "give some back" at the betting window not just here, but after the All-Star Break as well.  Looking at just the last five games, the Nuggets are not only scoring above their season average offensively, but also giving up far fewer points per game on defense. This is a case of a bad team playing above its head for a short-term period of time. They will begin to regress back to their normal level of play.

  Meanwhile, Detroit has played below expectations over its last five games.  This is a team that has outscored opponents over the course of the year, but in those last five they are -3.6 PPG, not indicative of YTD performance. Here at home, the numbers are even more impressive as the Pistons are 16-9 SU/16-8-1 ATS w/ an average margin of victory of +5.7 PPG.  Defensively, they should start to improve from the L2 games where they allowed Indiana and Toronto to shoot 53.9% and 55.7% respectively. Improving their own 89 point performance from Monday is all but guaranteed (Nuggets allow 103.6 PPG) and this is a revenge spot from a loss suffered just 2.5 weeks ago when the Pistons were actually 4.5-point chalk (lost by 3) and led at one point by as many as 14 points. 10* Detroit

10* George Washington (7:00 ET):  There is just one team in the country w/o a road loss and surprisingly it is St. Joe's, who is 8-0 straight up and against the spread in games that take place in their opponents' gyms. Quietly, the Hawks are 19-4 SU overall and their margin of victory away from home is +8.8 points per game, so I suppose there is no "flukiness" about this at all. But still, I'm not all that sold on this team as the A-10 schedule has been relatively light, save for a three-point loss at home to VCU.  Speaking of VCU, George Washington just beat them, a major win that should be celebrated. The Colonials were nine-point road dogs in that one and now return home where they've gone 12-1 SU this year. Lay the short number here.

GW's one home loss came in double overtime, to Richmond, on January 28th.  Since then, the Colonials have rattled off three straight wins, clearly the most impressive of which took place on Saturday. One of the best free throw shooting teams in the entire country, they were just 10 of 18 from the charity stripe Saturday. That makes beating VCU look all the more impressive. Consider that the Rams hadn't lost since December 15th.  Playing against teams with a winning record, GW is 12-3 SU and 9-5 ATS. Normally, I might call for a letdown after a win like the one GW had over the weekend, but the fact is their avg MOV is +12.2 PPG and it's not like they played "above their heads" vs. VCU. The spread is also too low here.

St. Joe's is obviously due to not only lose a game on the road, but also fail to cover.  They won Saturday, but were coming off surprising loss there and the opponent was Fordham, who has been the worst team in the A-10 for years. To this point, the road schedule has not been all that challenging for the Hawks, who have mostly drawn the bottom of the league for their away dates. That changes in a major way here. Consider that they were getting more points against an inferior (compared to GW) Rhode Island squad at the end of January. That win was followed up by a home loss to St. Bonaventure last week. Then they shot better than they had in any game all season vs. lowly Fordham (only game better than 50%!).  They are the ones that will be unable to match their performance level from the previous game. 10* George Washington

10* Florida (9:00 ET):  The Gators recorded a big win for me (was on them) and themselves two Saturdays ago when they whipped a very good West Virginia team here in Gainesville, 88-71. Since then, things haven't gone nearly as well, especially in a blowout loss at Kentucky Saturday.  In between, their was a narrow win over Arkansas here at home by four points where they did not cover. However, as I went through in my analysis for the WVU-Florida game, the Gators are absolutely better than their record as they rate highly according to most computer rankings. Note that before the disaster Saturday in Lexington, three of the team's last four losses had been by three points or less. Lay the points here as I'll call for a big win.

Ole Miss comes in here off an outright win, at home, over Vanderbilt Saturday. They won 85-78 as three-point dogs, but that was after trailing by as many as 11 points in the second half. Part of the impetus for the Rebels' comeback was Vandy getting into major foul trouble. Ole Miss ended up making as many free throws as Vandy even attempted.  That helped nullify a somewhat dreadful 35.8 FG%.  That's really been nothing new, however, as the Rebels are barely shooting even 40 percent in SEC play, so it has to be somewhat of a surprise that they are even .500 in conference action.  Last month in Oxford, they were better than that average, but still lost to this Florida team (80-71) and trailed by 19 going into the Break.

The revenge angle is often overrated in handicapping circles and I believe that to be the case here. Despite Florida winning by nine in Oxford, there's been no real adjustment by the linesmakers for this rematch even though the Gators are 11-1 SU in Gainesville, winning by an average margin of 17.7 points per game. Florida has responded from its previous three SEC losses by winning and covering the next time out, every time.  The last time we saw them in this spot was the West Virginia game.  It was a huge early hole that the Gators fell into in Lexington Saturday, but they basically played UK pretty even in the second half.  The Top 25 has essentially accounted for almost all of Florida's losses this year, but that's not Ole Miss. 10* Florida

8* New York (8:05 ET):  The Knicks just fired Derek Fisher due to losing 9 of their last 10 games, including five straight. They are now 4.5 games out of the playoff chase and it's definitely been an ugly stretch as they've been outscored by 9.2 points per game during the losing streak. However, that's a bit misleading as there was one bad loss (here at home) to Golden State, 116-95.  The last three losses have all been by six points or less. As we all know, after something like coaching change, teams often improve over the short-term. That's what I expect here from the Knicks and they have a tailor-made opponent in the Wizards, who are awful defensively.  Lay the short number.

Note that the Knicks are currently eight games below .500. That includes an 0-7 record w/o Carmelo Anthony, which is no coincidence.  He has been on the floor for four of the team's last five losses, missing only the Memphis game. But he was back vs. Denver on Sunday and after a slow start, finished w/ 21 points, six rebounds and seven assists.  Overall, the team's shooting was better against the Nuggets than it had been the previous four games. Anthony has been out for three of the team's last nine losses. He is scheduled to play here. With Kurt Rambis taking the reigns tonight, there should be sense of urgency, especially playing at home.  Consider that in two of the past three games, the Knicks fell behind big early, came back to take the lead but then lost.

While the Knicks have been disappointing lately, the Wizards have been disappointing all season. I've written about all season how their increased pace of play has brought little to no success.  Their fourth in pace of play, but only 16th in offensive efficiency. Defensively, they are awful, giving up 105.4 points per game and lately have been worse (114.4 PPG allowed L5 games). Saturday they gave up 108 in a loss to Charlotte where they actually held a 19-point lead early. Though it was a long-time ago, the Knicks did win 117-110 in D.C. back on Halloween. Washington has won and covered four straight at MSG, a streak that I cannot see continuing.  The Wiz are 0-3 SU/ATS as a road dog of 3 pts or less this season. 8* New York

8* Drake (8:00 ET):  By some metrics, Drake is the unluckiest team in the entire country. They are, in fact, 0-7 SU in games decided by six points or less this season. One of those losses came at Iowa.  Things were not close when the Bulldogs first played Wichita State as the final score there was 67-47. But the good news for the rematch is that we're getting a ton of value. The spread here is nearly identical to what it was the first go around despite the change in venue and the fact Drake nearly covered in Wichita.  I played against the Shockers Saturday night remember and they lost outright (as 12.5-point favorites) to Illinois State. As I said in my analysis there, this team is due to start regressing after a ridiculously dominant start to MVC play.  Take the points.

Wichita State came into Saturday night's game 11-0 SU (10-1 ATS) in Missouri Valley play (conference is down this year), winning by an average margin of 20.4 points per game.  That average margin of victory certainly took a bit of hit w/ the loss to Illinois State, which again was an outright loss as 12.5-point chalk. Yes, they did have a 16-point lead in the second half before imploding down the stretch, but the expectation of a bounce back in this spot has led to an overinflated line. Consider that the Shockers held ISU to 27.3 percent shooting and still lost. It was only their third MVC loss in the L3 seasons and they are 0-2 ATS off the previous two losses. They are also 2-6 ATS the L3 seasons after scoring 60 points or less.

Drake was victimized by a hot shooting Northern Iowa team last time out as the Panthers finished 61.8 percent from the field. As good as Wichita State has been this year, I doubt that they'll be that sharp offensively here. In fact, the Shockers were just 35.2 percent from the field against Illinois State.  One key area for Drake in this game is three-point shooting. They actually lead the conference in that department at 40.3 percent, which is very good.  They made only 10 two-point shots in the first meetings w/ Wichita State, a number that almost HAS to go up here. The Shockers can also be had on the glass and that's good for the Bulldogs, who have outrebounded five straight opponents. 8* Drake

8* Under Raptors/Pistons (7:35 ET): If you had simply bet the Over in every Pistons' home game the past three seasons, then you'd be 66-36-4 (15-9 this year), which is quite the return on investment. However, assuming you have NOT done this, might I recommend you to now start looking to go the other way?  Recent defensive efforts have not been strong for Detroit, including allowing 112 pts in a loss to Indiana two nights ago. I backed the Pacers in that one (covered), but little did I know the game would end up that high scoring. Six of the Pistons' last seven games have now gone Over, so maybe I shouldn't have been surprised at the amount of scoring. Yet they still are allowing just 98.9 PPG for the year at home and I would expect them to start reverting back to that average, sooner rather than later. Take the Under.

Seven of the last eight matchups between Toronto and Detroit have gone Over the total. That includes a January 30th meeting "North of the Border," which was won by the Raptors, 111-107. Note, however, that the two teams combined for a preposterous 81 free throw attempts in that game, much of them coming in a fourth quarter where 65 total points were scored. Thus, a decrease in the free throw shooting department is very likely here considering the average # of FT attempts these two combine to shoot in a game this year is just 52.  Speaking of due to decrease, overall scoring in Raptors games has been up over the last five games by an average of about eight points compared to season long averages.  Like the Pistons, much of that has to do w/ the defensive end of the floor. For the year, Toronto allows just 97.2 PPG. 

Detroit is a terrible shooting team, one of the worst in the league as matter of fact. I talked a bit about this in my analysis for their game at Indiana.   In terms of a true shooting percentage, which takes into account free throws, only the Lakers are worse. Their struggles at the line are almost all owed to Andre Drummond and note that despite getting all those attempts last week vs. Toronto (34), they only converted 20. The Raptors, meanwhile, got to the line a ridiculous 47 times in that game. That's certainly highly unlikely to be duplicated here on the road where they average just 99.5 PPG anyways.  The bottom line is that I expect both teams to be significantly better defensively (and not foul as much) compared to the last meeting.  8* Under Raptors/Pistons

10* Indiana (7:05 ET):  All of a sudden, the Lakers are playing decent basketball as they're actually 3-0 ATS in February. After winning their first two games this month straight up, they easily covered Saturday night in San Antonio (as 17-pt dogs), losing only by four. But I wouldn't expect this recent "surge" to go on for much longer. This is still the worst team in the league from where I sit as they are being outscored by nearly 11 points per 100 possessions. Defensively, they are the worst team in the league in terms of efficiency. Offensively, they are dead last in both true shooting and effective field goal percentages. So there's just not much to like here, particularly the hideous coaching job Byron Scott has done this season. I am expecting the Lakers to revert back to their typical ways tonight and lose big in Indiana. Lay the points.

I took the Pacers in their last game and they rewarded me w/ a 112-104 win and cover over the Pistons.  January did not go all that well for Frank Vogel's team, but lately things have improved w/ four wins in the last six games and one of the losses was to Cleveland in overtime. Offensively, Indiana's recent numbers have been quite strong and while normally you might want to bet on them regressing, such a phenomenon is unlikely to occur here given how bad the Lakers are defensively.  I think that the key here will be the Pacers defense, which is usually pretty sound, particularly at home. They're allowing just 98.2 PPG here but have recently been above that number.  Keep in mind though that two of their last five games did go to overtime.  Something else that caught my eye is that when these teams first met this season, back in November at LA, the Pacers were 10-point favorites. They didn't cover, but now we're essentially getting to lay the same number at home. That's value.

Kobe Bryant's retirement tour makes for some nice storylines during the course of the season, but the fact remains that he's stunting the growth of the younger talent on the roster through the empowerment of Scott.  The Lakers haven't been quite as bad defensively of late due to holding New Orleans to only 96 pts in an upset win Thursday night, but have still given up at least 100 in 11 of the last 13 games.  As for the offense, only one time in the past 16 games have they been at 50% or above!  Bryant may not even play here (shoulder), but if he does, I'd expect him to curtail from recent efforts as he remains the league's worst shooter at 35.4 percent.  The Pacers should also dominate the boards in this game. 10* Indiana

10* Over Quinnipiac/St. Peter's (7:00 ET): The fine folks at Quinnipiac I'm sure are busy polling this political season, but hopefully they have taken some time to notice that the basketball program has won three in a row.  The Bobcats are getting it done w/ defense, but it shouldn't take a political science or a math major to tell you that such a surge in play on that end of the floor is quite uncommon. After all, this is a team that for the season is giving up 77.9 points per game on the road.  In the L2 games, the Bobcats have surrendered less than 60, so there's now a rather large discrepancy between what they've allowed recently (64.2 PPG L5 games) and what they allow for the year, at least on the road. You have to believe then that a market correction is forthcoming.  Take the Over.

While Quinnipiac's recent play on the defensive end stands out, so too does some of St. Peter's recent offensive efforts. Only the latter is not something worth bragging about as the Peacocks are only averaging a paltry 55.8 points their last five games, all of which have resulted in losses. The latest was a real ugly effort Friday at Siena where they fell 69-52. That was NOT their lowest scoring game of the year; that dubious "honor" instead goes to a 76-45 loss to Rider last month. Still though, we're talking about a team that four times has failed to crack even 60 pts over the course of the last five games. Fortunately, we do know that they are averaging 65.1 PPG for the season here at home, so again it stands to reason that a rather sizable "market correction" is set to take place here.

Both of these teams figure to start shooting better moving forward. It certainly can't get much worse. Quinnipiac is current shooting a dreadful 34.6% from the field in conference play and has actually been below that number in 8 of their last 10 games. St. Peter's shot just 35.5 percent in the loss to Siena on Friday, including 4 of 23 from three-point range. Looking at Quinnipiac's last game, they held Marist to just a single point over a three minute span and to just 27 percent shooting for the game. I'm actually shocked as to how well both of these squads have defended the three-point line this year, Quinnipiac overall (29.4 percent) and St. Peter's here at home (29.2 percent). But all those percentages simply seem unsustainable to me and looking back, both teams have had games where the O/U line was regularly at 140 pts or higher. That makes this number look like a tremendous value by comparison and wouldn't you know, this total looks to be the lowest for either side all season. 10* Over Quinnipac/St. Peters

10* Fairfield (3:30 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Stags, who lost at Manhattan (by six) last month. As you'll often hear both here and likely elsewhere, the revenge angle is often overrated in handicapping circles, but today I feel it is applicable as the avenging team is undervalued coming off bad loss to MAAC leader Monmouth.  Manhattan managed to upset Monmouth (were at home) back on January 21st, but then lost 70-56 at Iona last Friday. Tuesday saw them pull another upset, this one a minor one as they were one-point home dogs in a 65-57 win over Rider. Yes, the Jaspers seem to have the edge from a scheduling perspective (three extra days to prepare), but I think Fairfield will be eager to atone for Friday's "dud" of a performance. Lay the points.

Being the home team is huge here for Fairfield.  I say that not just because of the fact they average a strong 79.5 points per game here. But, also, Manhattan is an awful 2-7 SU in "true" road games this season and being outscored by nearly 14 PPG.  Note that the Stags were actually one-point road favorites in last month's meeting, so by that measure they are clearly undervalued in this spot. Yes, there has to be some kind of adjustment by the linesmakers due to the result there, but not to this degree.  Again, Manhattan has covered only one of its eight lined road games. As alluded to above, the Jaspers are not a strong team defensively. On the road, their opponents are shooting 50 percent this season.

Fairfield has not shot well its last two games, both losses. The first was an outright loss here at home to Quinnipiac (known for their polling!). Then, against Monmouth, things got away from them in the second half (25-5 run by Monmouth). While the Stags aren't "fooling anyone" as to who they are, the fact is that this is the first time that they enter a game on a losing streak since opening the season 0-3 and that included a game vs. North Carolina.  Manhattan has won a number of close games recently, six by eight points or less since the New Year in fact.  Tuesday's win over Rider was a one-point game w/ three minutes to go & then the Broncs simply stopped scoring (literally!). Go w/ the home team and the revenge angle here. 8* Fairfield

8* Orlando (1:05 ET):  The Magic have taken some excruciating losses recently. Just prior to picking up their ONLY win in the L30 days, January 31st vs. Boston, three times in a four-game span they blew a double digit lead and lost.  The schedule makers have been unkind recently giving them a three-game stretch of Spurs, Thunder, Clippers. Against the Thunder, they lost on a last-second three-pointer by Kevin Durant. Overall, it has been a disastrous 2016 for Orlando as they have only two SU wins in 17 games played.  Once a league-best 21-9 ATS through their first 30 games, the Magic have covered the spread in five of those L17 games.  But, eventually, I think there's got to be a bit of a "resurgence." The Magic had covered three straight before Friday's loss to the Clippers. I like them here plus the points and likely to win the game outright. 

Atlanta is somewhat being dismissed after LY's somewhat fluky 60-win campaign.  But they're still likely to win 50 this season and probably finish w/ a high seed in the Eastern Conference. That being said, they are not in the same class as recent Magic opponents. They're a little overvalued here due to coming in on a three-game SU and ATS win streak, but consider two of those wins were at home and the other was at Philadelphia.  The Hawks still have a losing road record while giving up 101.6 points per game. They've shot the ball really well those L3 games (51.3% or better every time), but division games have given this team trouble in 2015-16. They average just 95.9 PPG vs. the rest of the Southeast, yet have somehow managed a winning (6-3 SU) record despite actually being outscored.

Orlando is 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Atlanta this year, but the one loss here at home was close (decided by just three points). The Hawks have shot nearly 50 percent from three-point range in the two games (20 of 41), so the Magic must tighten up defensively tonight.  At the same time, they're likely to shoot better here than they did in Atlanta three weeks ago (34.5 FG%). As a home dog of three points or less, Orlando has gone 3-1 SU/ATS this season.  Meanwhile, the last two times that Atlanta was a road favorite, they lost outright and one of those games came at Phoenix.  8* Orlando

8* Illinois State (10:00 ET): Maybe a later than normal start is what it will take to knock Wichita State out of the zone they've been in recently. While not "shocking" in the least that they're leading the Missouri Valley again this year, the ease with which the Shockers have mowed down their conference competition has been quite impressive. So far, they are 11-0 SU (10-1 ATS) in MVC play, winning by a startling average of 20.4 points per game. We know that the conference is "down" this year, but for the gap to be this big is something remarkable. That all being said, Illinois State is a team that can give Greg Marshall's team all they can handle. For evidence of that, look no further than last year's MVC Tournament when ISU upset them as eight-point pups.  Take the points here.

The Redbirds actually played the Shockers tough in all three meetings last year with every game decided by eight points or less.  They come into the first meeting of 2016 having won four of five overall, the lone loss coming by three at Missouri State in overtime. They followed that up with a "surprise" win (were +3) at Loyola, an underrated team, so that definitely caught my eye.  Illinois State is currently one of four teams tied at 7-4 SU in conference play, so this game actually means far more to them than it does to Wichita State.  While an upset in one game typically results in a letdown the next, I don't believe that will be the case here even though it will be very difficult for the Redbirds to match their 58.3% shooting from Wednesday. One area where they are likely to improve though is at the free throw line where they were only 17 of 25 against the Ramblers.

ISU is allowing just 64 PPG at home this year, so taking double digits seems like a real "steal" to me.  Not once in the last three seasons have they been a home dog of this size. Note that all five of Wichita State's losses this season have been out on the road.  The Shockers have covered eight straight games, which is hard to do, and I'm willing to bank that we've reached the "tipping point" with them.  This is a national TV game, which is why it's starting so late and I do expect the crowd to be a factor. Led by MiKyle McIntosh, the Redbirds are shooting 46 percent from three-point range the last four games. 8* Illinois State

8* Phoenix (9:05 ET):  I went with the Suns as my 10* Game of the Week Thursday night and it paid off as they stayed within the number here at home vs. Houston, losing by only six.  By all rights, that should have been their third straight cover as last Sunday saw them blow an outright lead in the fourth quarter in Dallas and end up losing by 13. That spelled the end for Jeff Hornacek and predictably we have seen the team play a little better for interim HC Earl Watson.  They played a good Toronto team pretty tough Tuesday, losing by only seven there. For much of the game vs. Houston, they were close or had the lead.  Tonight, they host a Utah team that is playing well (five-game win streak), but is in "over its head" as a road favorite of this magnitude.  Take the points.

The Jazz just played last night and won 84-81 over Milwaukee. Many times, I'll make the case that a team playing w/o rest is being undervalued. That's not the case here though.  While Utah is very formidable defensively, they simply don't score enough to justify this lofty projection from the linesmaker.  Consider that the last two games, both at home, have seen them allow 81 pts and not cover.  Going back to a 94-80 loss at Minnesota right before the New Year, the Jazz have only two road wins and they came at the expense of the Lakers and Nets.  While 4-1 ATS in the road favorite role this season, this number threatens to be the largest they've ever had to lay and their SU road record is just 7-15 SU w/ them averaging only 96.5 points per game.  That's somewhat problematic.

Consider that the Jazz are being asked to lay more points on the road than they were at home where they first met the Suns this season. Yes, they won that game handily and Phoenix has been the worst team in the league since Christmas. But the shift in the pointspread is too severe from where I sit.  Especially because it's looking like Trey Burke will have to miss this one due to an illness.  Burke is one of the team's six double digit scorers and given the overall lack of production on that end of the floor, he will be missed.  If there's one thing that the Suns can do well, it's score, as they average 103.2 PPG here at home. 8* Phoenix

10* Indiana (7:05 ET):  The Pacers lost in Atlanta last night, but by my estimation come in undervalued for tonight's home date with division rival Detroit. Save for last night, Indiana has really cleaned up against Eastern Conference competition this year w/ a 20-8 ATS record. Meanwhile, the Pistons have a fairly striking home vs. road dichotomy as they're just 11-16 SU away from home compared to 16-8 in the Motor City and the ATS results are essentially identical. The Pacers have taken two of the three meetings so far this season, including a 12-point victory here at home just last month.  In both victories, they have held the Pistons to only 82 points. Not only is Indiana 20-8 ATS vs. the rest of the East, but they are 8-2 ATS vs. their own division. Lay the points.

Detroit has seen its scoring rise of late, most notably in a 111-point effort vs. the Knicks on Thursday. Since beating Golden State (at home) back on January 16th, the team is just 5-6 straight up overall and they've allowed 100+ pts in all but two games, against Utah and Philadelphia, who are two of the lowest scoring teams in the league.  Indiana is averaging 103.8 PPG at home, so look for them to take advantage of the shoddy Detroit defense tonight.  Despite a dominant advantage in rebounding last night (leading to a significant edge in second chance points), the Pacers could not really get things going offensively. Paul George was the exception as he hit seven three-pointers en route to a 31-point performance, but the rest of the team shot below 40 percent from the field. 

Here at home, the Pacers are 15-8 straight up and outscoring teams by an average of 5.6 points per game.  As I already went over, the Pistons' defensive numbers are bad and that's due in large part to giving up 102.3 PPG on the road.  This is also not a very good shooting team. On the road, their overall field goal percentage is 42.3% and that doesn't even take into account Andre Drummond's horrible marks at the free throw line.  In terms of "true" shooting percentage, which does take FT shooting into account, only the Lakers are worse than the Pistons. This is one of those classic instances of a team being undervalued because it is playing in the second night of a back to back.  10* Indiana

10* Richmond (6:00 ET):  This is one of those situations that I love where the favorite is coming off a straight up loss and thus undervalued because their opponent happened to win SU as a dog their last time out.  The underdog in question here is Massachusetts, who won at home (as 2-pt dogs) over Rhode Island Tuesday. One day later we saw Richmond, the favorite here, fall to George Mason as 13-point chalk. So that's the setup. Richmond has shockingly lost its last three home games, one to VCU, but all were relatively close and the team is still averaging slightly over 80 points per game in its own gym. UMass had gone nearly a month w/o a win before upending Rhode Island earlier in the week and I say its back to the losing end for the Minutemen Saturday night.  Lay the points.

This will be the only meeting between these schools this season unless they get matched up in the A-10 Tournament.  Each of the last two seasons have seen Richmond come away with a three-point victory at Massachusetts expense. Those were also much better Minutemen teams that the Spiders faced. The last time UMass came calling here, they were actually 16-2 on the season! This year's bunch is near the bottom of the conference standings (ahead of only George Mason and La Salle) and the offensive numbers aren't pretty when you consider it took overtime just to get to 61 points in Tuesday's upset win over Rhode Island. That was actually the Minutemen's second straight OT game as they had come out on the losing end vs. Fordham last weekend.  Prior to that though, five of their six A-10 losses had been by double digits.

Richmond has also split a pair of OT games recently, including the loss to VCU. They did win at George Washington (double overtime there), but have since dropped B2B games. Offensively, the Spiders have been a little "off" those last two games (38.5 FG%), but one thing is for certain and that's they won't be nearly as off as Rhode Island was (30.0 FG%) against UMass on Tuesday.  The Minutemen are bad team defensively as they allow 77.6 PPG.  10* Richmond

10* North Dakota State (5:00 ET): We're going a bit "off the board" here, but for good reason. In case you were unaware, IUPUI-Ft Wayne has the best ATS record (17-3) in the entire country currently. But two of those three non-covers have come somewhat recently and this is a situation where they'll be playing on the road for a second time in three nights. The last time we saw this situation present itself to the Mastodons, they did cover, although they had to go to overtime to win a wild affair at Omaha, 106-101. IPFW was also an 8.5-point dog in that spot as the oddsmakers were still underrating them. Not tonight, however, as some good old regression is in store for the best ATS team in the country.  Lay the points.

That last time IPFW played consecutive road games, they were actually off a loss at South Dakota State, who they currently lead by just one-half game atop the Summit League standings. That was also the middle game of a three-game road trip. So, it was a little different when they beat Omaha compared to now. The money actually came pouring in AGAINST the Mastodons (as people are becoming more aware of this team's ATS exploits) Thursday at South Dakota (not State) and bettors paid the price as IPFW came through as a three-point underdog, winning outright by a score of 95-82. But they also got 44 points from Max Landis, the most by any player in a single game in program history. As a team, the Mastdons made a school record 20 three-pointers.  That ain't happening again.

In addition to simply playing against IPFW, I've got plenty of reason to back North Dakota State here. The Bison are off a 67-63 win over Oral Roberts Thursday and while they did not cover (were -6), they did lose leading scorer Paul Miller (16.5 PPG) to a knee injury during the game.  Miller has been ruled out for today, but I liked what I saw from A.J. Jacobson Thursday and the Bison are getting to play a second straight game at home.  This is a huge revenge spot to boot as not only did they lose by just five at IPFW last month, but they are just 1-13 ATS vs. the Mastodons all-time. That's another trend "due" to reverse itself. 10* North Dakota State

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): Danny Manning's Demon Deacons have had a "tough go" of it in the ACC this year, but I think it's important to note that many times this team has hung w/ the "big boys."  Let's go back to before conference play even began, shall we? On December 22nd, Wake had an 18-point lead here in Winston-Salem against unbeaten Xavier. They blew that lead (and the cover). But they followed it up by beating Ben Simmons and LSU outright as seven-point road underdogs.  They've also beaten Indiana, UCLA and Arkansas at home. Yes, ACC play has been unkind, but Florida State should not be coming in here as the favorite, especially after the Demon Deacons very nearly handed Virginia a loss on this floor just over a week ago.  Take the points. 

That Virginia loss was another brutal one for the Deacons, perhaps the most brutal loss suffered by any team all season. They blew a 10-point lead with just over 90 seconds to go, giving up 18 points in the process including a miracle three-pointer at the buzzer. Predictably, after such an improbable defeat, things went south two days later w/ a bad loss at Notre Dame. Quite frankly, things weren't a whole lot better in the team's return to Winston-Salem Tuesday as they blew another halftime lead (this one of eight points) and lost to Clemson 76-62. The 56 second half points allowed (Clemson was 21 of 23 from the FT line) were a far cry from the 20 allowed before halftime.  While times are tough right now (1-9 vs. ACC), I do believe Wake to be undervalued here as they have played the toughest schedule in the country according to most rating systems.

Florida State comes in on a three-game win streak, most recently beating NC State by four at home. They aren't nearly as prolific offensively on the road, however, and this will be just the third time they're favored in another team's gym.  The first saw them lose outright to Clemson on January 2nd. Then, laying 10, they won 72-62 at Boston College last weekend.  Monday's win saw the Seminoles shoot 52.4% overall, including 36.4% from three-point range, which dare I say won't be repeated here.  They had their own defensive issues in the 2H vs. NC State as well.  8* Wake Forest

10* New York (7:35 ET):  I saw this number when it opened yday afternoon and was somewhat salivating at the chance to play it. My only hope was that the Knicks WOULDN'T be victorious last night and they weren't, though they did almost pull off a rally from 27 down in Detroit. The fact that they lost means the value we're getting here is less likely to be affected and the bottom line is that I think it's a real steal to be able to take points in this spot. My own personal power ratings disagree w/ the notion of Memphis being favored here and when analyzing the Grizzlies' season to date, I feel it's important to bring up how no other team in the league has a greater discrepancy between it's actual and "expected" win total (+7). Take the points.

Though they ultimately came up short on the scoreboard last night, the Knicks "almost miracle rally" should have a "carryover" type effect into tonight. Keep in mind that the first half vs. the Pistons was likely their worst offensive showing of the season as they shot just 28 percent from the field and scored only 36 points.  Perhaps for the first time this season, there's a growing sense of urgency in the Big Apple as the team has dropped seven of eight (only win vs. Phoenix) overall.  They've barely shot 40 percent overall the L5 games and that's due to improve. For the season, they average 101.3 PPG here at MSG.  It's a 6-5 ATS record this year for New York in the second of back to back games.

Memphis, meanwhile, has won eight of nine and topped 100 points in all of those games. Simply put, they are due to regress back to their mean offensively as their 60.6% shooting from the last game (110-95 win at New Orleans) is highly unlikely to be repeated and on the road, they're averaging only 95.5 PPG.  Something that I found interesting is that when these teams met three weeks ago, in Memphis, the Grizzlies were "only" a 5.5-point favorite.  They did win 103-95 (Knicks were 5 of 20 from 3-point range), but in my opinion that margin of victory is not enough to justify the substantial swing in the line we've seen here. The Grizzlies still have a losing road record (10-13 SU) this season and following a double-digit win, they are 3-6 against the spread.  10* New York

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET):  When Sacramento beat Brooklyn 111-109 back on November 13th, they were 6.5-point home favorites. Now much has changed since that first meeting and there can be no denying that the Nets' season quickly went south.  But, at the same time, I'm not so sure the Kings has gone so well as to justify this many swing in the pointspread for tonight's rematch at the Barclays Center. Sacramento, now the road team, is essentially laying a very similar number compared to what they were laying at home.  Let's note that the Kings are a pretty awful road team w/ an 8-15 straight up record thanks to allowing 109.7 points per game (league worst) in such affairs.  Brooklyn has its own set of issues, but is a good value here. Take the points.

I've been through this before w/ Sacramento, but it somewhat astounds me that they've been favored in so many games recently. Wednesday marked the seventh time in the last nine games they've been in the chalk role and while they went 4-3 ATS in those games, twice they were laying two points or less at home. Laying this much weight on the road seems like a big ask for a team with so many issues defensively. They lost outright to Chicago, at home, Wednesday night. The final score there was 107-102 and keep in mind that the Bulls didn't have Jimmy Butler in the lineup.  Despite that, the Kings trailed by double digits for much of the first half and beyond. Again, I believe it's critical to note that this is the worst defensive team in the league. Two of the three games in which Sacramento has been a road favorite this season, they have lost outright.

The year 2016 has not been a good one so far for Brooklyn, nor does it figure to get that much better moving forward. They have dropped 15 of their last 17 games, going just 4-13 ATS. But if history is any indication, the Nets are in a good spot tonight as twice during that stretch they've lost five in a row, only to win the next time out. I had them two Sundays ago where as an even larger home dog, they beat Oklahoma City outright. They enter tonight on another five-game losing streak, but had covered vs. both New Orleans and Detroit before a 114-100 loss Wednesday vs. Indiana.  The Kings should not be in the same price range as the Pacers, which they are here.  8* Brooklyn

8* Brown (7:00 ET): Cornell had quite the week last week. They went to both Harvard (as 10-pt underdogs) and Dartmouth (as 3.5-pt underdogs) and the pulled off two upsets, but the schedule makers are keeping them out on the road this weekend for another pair of away games and eventually that has to catch up w/ a team. Tonight, they visit Brown, who won last Saturday here at home against Penn, 89-83 as two-point chalk. Something to watch is the status of Cornell's leading scorer, Robert Hatter, who also leads the team in assists.  He has missed the last four games. But despite Hatter being listed as probable to return here, I don't like the idea of the Big Red laying points in this spot as a 14-2 ATS run here in Providence is due to halt sooner rather than later.  Take the points. 

Playing without their leading scorer, Cornell received a major contribution last week from freshman Matt Morgan, who came out of almost nowhere to total 65 points.  Morgan first scored a career-high 33 pts in the 77-65 win at Harvard, then it was 32 more in Saturday's narrow 77-73 win at Dartmouth. Free throw shooting also played a significant role in those two Big Red victories.  In both upsets, they made more FT's than their opponents even attempted, which is pretty surprising considering they were the road team. Helping their cause further, Harvard missed 11 of 17 FT's. Cornell then got to the line an absurd 35 times Saturday in Dartmouth. Winning the battle at the charity stripe seems odd for a team that for the year shoots just 64.6% there. (Brown, for the record, is at 71.9%) I would expect both Morgan and the team's FT shooting to start to regress here.

This seems like a pretty even matchup on paper, so I'm not entirely sure as to why the road team would be laying points. Cornell is still only 5-6 SU away from home this year, giving up 81.5 points per game.  Although they admittedly won the last game, it's hard to rectify how the Big Red were underdogs in Dartmouth and now are favored here.  As you can tell, this is more of a play AGAINST Cornell than anything else, but I would also expect Brown's recent shooting woes to be rectify themselves. 8* Brown

8* Portland (11:00 ET):  Well, here I go again.  The Pilots have let me down the last two times they've taken off, first losing outright at home last Thursday to San Francisco, then doing the same vs. Santa Clara two days later. After missing on the linesmakers projections by a total of 27 points in those two games, they now find themselves as double digit dogs for a visit to Pepperdine, who they actually beat earlier in the WCC campaign. So this looks to be a great value w/ Portland already having beaten this same opponent, by eight, as two-point underdogs. Since then, they've crashed and burned, losing eight of nine while Pepperdine has gone 7-2 SU. But this remains an inflated number nevertheless.  Take the points.

Pepperdine, who beat St. Mary's on this floor (as eight-point dogs) saw its four-game win streak snapped on Saturday with an 11-point setback at the hands of BYU.  The Waves just did get under the 11.5-point spot in that one, so they've now covered five in a row, thus all the more reason for overinflation.  There was nothing that fluky about Portland's win back on December 23rd, though they did make 10 three-pointers.  Still though, the Pilots can score (78.2 PPG), so taking this many points really is attractive. I'm hoping they can play a little defense as well as that has been an issue for them throughout conference play. They allowed Santa Clara to shoot 53.4 percent Saturday night, thus nullifying their own strong offensive showing.  Still, it's telling that only one of their WCC losses has been by more than 12 points.

Pepperdine might still be unbeaten at home (9-0 SU), but as a favorite they've struggled to cover the spread in WCC play, well until recently. They opened conference play 0-4 ATS as chalk, but have since covered the last three times in that role. But only one of those tickets was punched as a DD favorite and that came against last place San Diego. Keep in mind that the Waves' last four games have come against just two different opponents, San Diego and BYU. They have a couple of big games looming on the horizon (Gonzaga, St. Mary's), so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them overlook this game a bit. 8* Portland

10* CS Fullerton (10:00 ET):  Yes, the revenge angle is often overplayed in handicapping circles. But I feel it applies here with Cal State Fullerton looking to avenge last week's 69-64 loss to Big West rival Cal Davis.  Note that Fullerton did lead that game, by two, at the half. Neither team goes very deep into the respective benches as there were a total of two points scored from all non-starters in that first meeting.  I feel that homecourt advantage will also play a vital role here as UC Davis has just one win away from home all season (in 10 games) and averages only 64.2 points per game. For the season, the Aggies actually rank outside the Top 300 in scoring overall!  Look for the home team to gain a much needed win and revenge Thursday night.

The Titans (CS Fullerton) are now 1-6 SU and in last place in the Big West following another setback, this one coming by 10 (71-61) to UC Riverside here at home on Saturday. Again though, that was another game they led at the half.  The defensive numbers in the second half (54 pts allowed) look pretty ugly, but consider that Riverside ended up going to the free throw line a total of 34 times (made 30!), which was significant as Fullerton finished just 12 for 19 at the charity stripe despite being the home team.  The Titans have now dropped six in a row overall, but clearly shouldn't have to worry about giving up many points here and UC Davis is just terrible from the foul line (62.9%). With their next three games taking place out on the road, this is really a "must win" for Fullerton.

UC Davis, meanwhile, has won four of its last five (4-0 ATS L4) after opening the season just 5-10 straight up.  Three of those four wins, including the one over CS Fullerton, were by five points or less and then Saturday saw them pull off a real shocker, beating Cal Poly 66-52 as a four-point home underdog. But, again, this team has just one win away from home all season. It came against Utah Valley State (non-board team) back in late November. They have dropped their three Big West road games by an average of nearly 20 points per game and also lost at Seattle (non-board team) earlier this year. 10* CS Fullerton

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET):  Of course, this will be the second straight time I've used the Suns as my *10* Game of the Week.  Obviously, given the current state of the team, it's a bit risky. They did lose for me Sunday (last game w/ Jeff Hornacek on the bench) in Dallas and failed to cover, but it should be noted that they actually led that game outright (as 12-pt underdogs) w/ just over six minutes remaining (somehow ended up losing by 13). A miserable nine-point fourth quarter there was likely the final nail in Hornacek's "coffin," as the team obviously should have at least been able to cover there.  Cover is what Phoenix did do in its first game under interim HC Earl Watson, losing only 104-97 to a vastly superior Toronto team that was looking to rebound from an embarrassing defeat. I say take the points here.

Houston simply does not deserve to be in this price range, especially on the road.  Consider that where the line opened here was almost identical to what the Raptors were asked to lay Tuesday here in Phoenix and the debate isn't even close as to who's better - Toronto or Houston. Also, it should be pointed out that while the Suns are an absolutely atrocious 4-22 SU on the road this season, they are a more respectable 10-14 SU at home while being dead even in terms of points for and against. The Rockets, meanwhile, have a losing road record and have been outscored by nearly three full points per game in those contests (allow 107.8 PPG).  I realize that Houston just beat Miami by double digits (at home) and Dwight Howard (who could eventually be traded) is back from a one-game suspension, but this team just isn't that good in my estimation.

Normally, after a coaching change, we see a team display some short-term improvement. As mentioned above, the Suns did cover Tuesday night vs. a good Toronto team and honestly it was a crime they didn't do the same in Dallas Sunday.  This is one of those situations where the line is actually coming down despite the majority of the bets being on the favorite, so it does appear as if the so-called "smart money" is on the home dog in this one. Houston is just 14-19 ATS as a favorite this year and Howard's return may not be the "blessing" that it appears to be considering the team has lost the five times he's played, giving up a startling average of 126.4 PPG.  It is also unlikely the Rockets match their 52.4 FG% from Tuesday night.  10* Phoenix

8* Minnesota (10:35 ET):  The T'wolves are off a really embarrassing loss last night as they fell to the Lakers, 119-115 as four-point road favorites.  They'll be back at Staples Center tonight, only this time to face the Clippers and while the matchup seems far less favorable, taking the points remains an attractive option here.  Teams playing in the second game of a back to back, especially on the road and off a loss, are typically undervalued by the linesmakers. I realize that being off a SU loss as a favorite has not been kind to Minnesota this year (0-6 ATS in that role), plus they are 0-8 SU in the second game of a B2B. But a double digit pointspread is simply too good to pass up in this instance as the Clips can be "caught napping." Take the points.

Yet another trend that Minnesota must overcome here is that they have lost 14 straight times to the Clippers. The most recent setback came in early December, at home, but that game was decided by only four points. Earlier in the year, they lost by only eight (were +10) here in LA.  Because they've lost five straight coming into tonight, the spread is predictably higher for the third go-around. But note that three of the T'wolves last four games have been decided by four points or less and another saw them lose by only seven in Cleveland.  Thanks to almost always being the underdog, the team has performed much better against the spread when on the road, going 14-11 this year. I don't know how they lost last night considering they shot 57.5% from the field. Then again, they were just 4 of 17 from three-point range.

  Further helping to drive up the value here is the fact the Clippers are coming off an impressive 120-93 win and cover over Chicago. That was the team's fourth straight win, though two of those (both on the road) came by just two points each. Remember that Blake Griffin remains out and I'll question just how long this recent defensive "renaissance" (94.0 PPG allowed L5 games) can continue. For the season, LA is allowing just over 100 points per game. After a double digit win, the Clips are only 5-9 ATS this year. This is a situation where the road team should be able to take advantage of a generous pointspread. 8* Minnesota

10* Under Pelicans/Spurs (8:35 ET):  New Orleans has now gone Over the total in nine straight games. But if there's one thing that we should expect to change as it relates to their last game, it's that the Spurs, as good as they may be, likely won't shoot 60% percent from the floor like the Grizzlies did. At the same time, we did see the Pelicans' own offensive numbers start to regress (scored only 95 pts) vs. Memphis and that figures to continue here against a San Antonio club that is #1 in the league (by a wide margin) in terms of defensive efficiency and giving up only 89.7 points per game here at home. I played the Spurs Under the total in their last game (and won!) and will go back to that well yet again tonight. Take the Under.

Even though they just held Orlando to only 92 points in a convincing win two nights ago, San Antonio's defensive numbers over the L5 games still aren't what you'd expect. That's because they had to face both Golden State and Cleveland on the road. Those two both shredded the Spurs to the tune of 120 and 117 points. The other three games during that stretch have seen them allow fewer than 100 and again they allow just 89.7 PPG for the year at home. Per 100 possessions, they allow only 94.8 points, which is four fewer than the second best team. That's the same gap that exists between the #2 (Boston) and #17 teams in terms of defensive efficiency. A total of 200+ just seems too high here given the YTD defensive numbers.

The Pelicans are not a good defensive team (28th in defensive efficiency), but they did hold the Spurs to just 90 points (on 40.5% shooting) in the only previous matchup between these two this season. Offensively, New Orleans had been performing much better than expected before running into Memphis. But I think that a key here is they average only 98.4 PPG on the road and as a result the Under is 18-5 for them in those games. Both teams will likely be missing a key weapon tonight as San Antonio will be w/o Tim Duncan and New Orleans is doubtful to have Tyreke Evans. Considering the last meeting saw just 194 total pts scored, it's curious that the O/U line for tonight's rematch would actually be significantly higher. 10* Under Pelicans/Spurs

8* Miami FL (7:00 ET):  After "zigging" Saturday, It's time to "zag" w/ the Hurricanes. Yes, I just played AGAINST "The U" in their last game and the result was even better than I had hoped for as they lost outright, 85-69 at North Carolina State as five-point favorites. But tonight they return to Coral Gables where they are 10-1 SU for the season including a perfect 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in ACC play where every win has been by double digits. Remember what I'd said in my analysis for the NC State game. This had been a hot team prior to visiting Raleigh w/ three straight wins to its credit. They do a great job when it comes to not turning the ball over and defensive rebounding. I expect them to bounce back tonight w/ a win. Lay the points.

When it comes to facing Notre Dame, three-point shooting will likely determine the outcome of this game. The Fighting Irish shoot the ball well from behind the arc, particularly on the road (41.0 percent!), which seems really high and unlikely to be sustained. Miami is excellent when it comes to limiting the number of looks from three-point range and when the opponent does attempt from distance, they are shooting just 29.1% here in Coral Gables.  Overall, the 'Canes are holding teams to just 0.89 points per possession at home. Meanwhile, Notre Dame's 3-pt FG% defense is bad w/ opponents making over 38 percent against them. Miami's three-point prowess has tailed off a bit in conference play, but both Sheldon McClellan (3 for 15 L3 games) and Angel Rodriguez are due to start finding more success in that department.

Unlike last season, when Notre Dame took both meetings, Miami is the more experienced team this time around. They're off the loss to NC State, who shot the ball better than expected, but a hot shooting opponent is less likely here at home. The Fighting Irish lost their last road game, 81-66 at Syracuse, and I'd say they are unlikely to replicate the hot shooting we saw Sunday vs. Wake Forest (who is a poor defensive team). They've gone just 3-6 ATS this year after scoring 80+ points in the previous game.  I also think that an extra day to prepare for this game is significant for the home team. 8* Miami (FL)

10* La Salle (7:00 ET):  Admittedly, this looks like a tough one on paper.  Over the course of the last several seasons, Virginia Commonwealth has proved that a move from the CAA to the A-10 would in no way inhibit their success. This year, they're showing that they don't miss the architect of the program's ascension (Shaka Smart) either.  Currently, VCU is one of only a handful of teams in America yet to suffer a conference loss (8-0 SU). The Rams last lost on December 19th and have since rattled off 11 consecutive victories, all but three of them coming by double digits. They continue to rank among the nation's best in terms of forcing turnovers and have shot 38 percent from three-point range. Yet, I feel tonight has "trap game" written all over it. Take the points.

At the opposite end of the Atlantic 10 spectrum, we have La Salle, who has lost six straight games and is tied for last place in the Conference. All six losses during the losing streak have come by double digits.  Wretched shooting has really hurt the Explorers this season, the last five games in particular as they are just 34.3 percent from the field. That number can only improve. At one point, they missed 10 straight shots Saturday in a 59-44 loss at Dayton. That resulted in a three-point deficit (w/ just over 11 minutes to go) turning into a 16-point hole. At home, however, the Explorers shoot a more respectable 44.3% from the field and they did pull a huge upset over the Flyers (Dayton) here (as 11.5-pt pups) back on January 9th. Tonight will be just the second time playing at Tom Gola Arena since that upset.

I'm banking on this being an easy game for VCU to overlook. It won't be broadcast locally and it's a matchup w/ arguably the weakest team in the league.  But, it's also the second of B2B road games w/ a more important contest (at home) looming this Friday vs. George Washington. Like another conference unbeaten, San Diego State (who I successfully played against yday), we've probably reached a "tipping point" w/ the Rams who are 12-4 ATS in all games this season. On the road this season, they are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 PPG.  The Explorers will find a way to keep this one close. 10* La Salle

8* Colorado State (11:00 ET): Scanning the current conference standings across the country, only a handful of teams are w/o a loss. One such team is San Diego State, who is 9-0 SU in the Mountain West following an upset of UNLV over the weekend. The Aztecs continue to lean on a defense that is allowing just 59.5 points per game, but they will be tested here by a Colorado State squad that comes in averaging an impressive 81.2 PPG (tied for 26th in the country). This is a rematch from three weeks ago when SDSU went to Fort Collins and pulled out a 69-62 win as three-point favorites. The number is predictably inflated for the rematch and thus it's time to take advantage and take the points.

The Aztecs are favored by double digits here, something that has not been the case for them very often in Mountain West play. It's happened twice recently and neither time did they cover. They pushed laying 12 here at home vs. Wyoming and then didn't cover a large 19-point spread against a terrible San Jose State team (arguably worst team in the conference).  CSU is clearly better than both of those teams.  It was a double digit win for the Aztecs Saturday in Vegas, but five of their previous seven victories were by single digit margins. They have a trio of victories by exactly three points. I just don't think this team has enough offensively to cover spreads as large as this one.

Colorado State will be looking to rebound from a disappointing result over the weekend, one that saw them lose up in Wyoming, which is a tough place to play.  This is the top scoring team in the conference, which will serve them well catching this many points.  Similar to SDSU not having had to lay double digits many times, rarely has Colorado State been catching so many points.  There's been only one other time that the Rams have caught double digits in MWC play. They covered at Boise State (lost by only four), scoring 80 points. They've also stayed within five of Kansas State (from the best conference in the country, the Big 12) on a neutral court, covering there as well.  Look for the Rams to make enough shots to stay within the number here.  8* Colorado State

10* Northern Illinois (9:00 ET):  We have two teams off very different results here in the MAC Tuesday night.  Northern Illinois lost, as a 5.5-point favorite, at lowly Miami over the weekend while Buffalo was able to go to Toledo and pull a wire to wire upset as 5.5-point dogs.  Northern Illinois still is tied for first place in the MAC West, but has dropped B2B games after a 6-0 start in conference play. The loss to Miami was really embarrassing as the RedHawks had previously been winless vs. the rest of the MAC. But the key here is that the Huskies are back in DeKalb where they are a perfect 13-0 SU this season, outscoring teams by a whopping 19.0 points per game. Homecourt advantage is the deciding factor here. Lay the points.

While not all those home games have come against top tier competition, the fact is that NIU is 7-1 ATS here including a perfect 4-0 when laying three or less. I don't envision a repeat of the poor shooting we saw in the Miami game where the Huskies finished at just 34.0 percent from the field.  Five players combined to go 0 for 17! That was the second time in three games they failed to score 60 points, but what has consistently saved this team is their defense. They held Toledo to just 31.1 percent their last time here and keep in mind they are allowing just 60.5 PPG in DeKalb. The record in conference games is still 29-14 ATS the L3 seasons and this is a double revenge spot as Buffalo has won both meetings the L2 years.

Buffalo allows 77 PPG on the road. Their last time away from home, they gave up 91 in a blowout loss to Western Michigan.  This will be the Bulls' third time playing B2B road games since conference play got underway.  So far, they have won the first game all three times. They are 0-2 in the second leg coming into tonight, allowing 86 PPG.  So recent history is certainly against them. The Bulls don't shoot the ball particularly well away from home (39.6 percent) and are quite unlikely to match the kind of three-point shooting we saw from Miami against NIU here.  Recent form has brought this line down far below what it should be and created a ton of value on the favorite.  10* Northern Illinois

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  The Celtics had to settle for a split of a home and home w/ Orlando over the weekend as they lost out on the road Sunday due to giving up 119 points on 53.7% shooting. Assuming that they can correct whatever issues there were on defense in that game, I see Brad Stevens' team bouncing back from that outright loss w/ a win here in the Big Apple. Scoring certainly has not been an issue for Boston as they've topped 100 points 12 straight times, averaging 113.2 PPG the L5 games.  The Knicks, meanwhile, are trending down w/ five losses in six games and the one win was against Phoenix.  Lay the short number here.

I expect the Celtics to start moving up the Eastern Conference pecking order.  They have the third best point differential (+4.2 per game), trailing only Cleveland and Toronto. The number of blowout victories Boston has produced this year is quite impressive (17 of 27 wins have been by double digits). A poor record in close games has cost them (1-6 SU L7 games decided by 5 pts or less), but is due to turn. It was a six-point loss here at MSG last month (Knicks were 27 of 30 at FT line!).  But they are 13-9 ATS playing w/ revenge.  The defense should improve here as in the five games previous to the Orlando loss, the Celtics allowed an average of 41.6 percent shooting. Also, don't discount the impact of points off turnovers. The Knicks are last in the league in that department while no team turns its opponents over more than does Boston.

The Knicks are not playing well right now. Rookie sensation Kristaps Porzingis has tailed off and he was the key w/ 26 points in 26 minutes in the 120-114 win over Boston last month. In four of their last six games, the team has been held to 95 points or fewer.  While they've still outperformed preseason expectations, the fact is that New York is still being outscored on the season and the record vs. teams w/ a winning record (9-17 including four straight losses) is not impressive. Somewhat predictably, they got torched by Golden State last time out, losing by 19, and that signals a poor result is likely here w/ the team just 5-11 SU after allowing 105+ points last game.  8* Boston

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): The Rockets have lost three in a row, the last two coming at home. That surprises me. They were seven-point favorites in an 81-79 loss to Ohio last Tuesday and a 5.5-point favorite in a 73-68 loss to Buffalo on Saturday. I'm really shocked to see this team have only a 6-4 SU home record as they are averaging 81.4 PPG here and outscoring opponents by a double digit margin for the season. As you might expect, they have not shot the ball particularly well during this losing skid. It's been 40% or lower in every game, which obviously needs to improve, but fortunately for them tonight they are getting Western Michigan outside of Kalamazoo. The Broncos are just 1-8 SU in road/neutral site affairs while averaging just 64.2 points per game.  Lay the points here.

Western Michigan gave up a lot of points (86) in its victory Saturday over rival Eastern Michigan, 63 of them in the second half in fact. One would have to go back to December to find the last time the Broncos posted B2B SU victories. In that instance, they were fortunate enough to play Marygrove (a non-DI school). There has been no other instance this year of WMU winning consecutive contests. Now, they aren't favored here, but note they have a poor 3-11 ATS record as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  With the poor defensive effort last time out & the poor YTD offensive numbers on the road, it is difficult to see this team playing well in this spot. It is a virtual certainty that their three-point shooting percentage will drop from the last game where they went 10 of 14.  Keep in mind that in "true" road games, the Broncos are 0 for 6 (straight up). 

Shockingly, Toledo never led Saturday at home vs. Buffalo. That came on the heels of falling behind Ohio by as many as 20 points.  Could they really play poorly for a third straight time at home? I'm willing to bet that the answer is no. This three-game losing streak is the program's longest in the last three seasons.  The market has had them favored in 15 of 18 lined games thus far, so while they've fallen short of expectations, I do think it speaks volumes as to where the Rockets SHOULD be in the MAC pecking order.  I like them to win big here. 8* Toledo

10* Georgia (7:00 ET):  South Carolina still only has just two losses on its resume, yet they remain on the fringes of the Top 25, which is telling w/ a group of people who generally lean too heavily on wins and losses. The Gamecocks have exceeded even the wildest expectations of HC Frank Martin, going 19-2 SU and 13-4 ATS overall.  Interestingly, this looks like the first time all year that they may close as an underdog. Reconciling that w/ the notion of overachieving can be a little bit contradictory, but it also speaks to the fact that the schedule has been somewhat weak. Recent road games have presented a bit of trouble (lost 2 of 3) and after a big revenge win at home Saturday, I see them dropping another here. 

Georgia is South Carolina's opponent tonight. While the Bulldogs lost both regular season matchups to the Gamecocks last year, they wound up the third time proved to be "the charm" in the SEC Tournament. They come into tonight off a pair of tough road losses to LSU and Baylor. Despite the results on the scoreboard there, the 'Dawgs should be ready to "bark" here, so to speak.  Getting to step outside of SEC play over the weekend (Big 12 Challenge) while South Carolina did not is actually an advantage, I think.  UGA actually led Baylor by three at halftime, in Waco mind you, and that's a place where no non-Big 12 team has won in the last 34 tries. This is a team w/ four double digit scorers on its roster and they are 10-3 SU here in Athens. Remember that they destroyed another South Carolina school, that being Clemson, here right after X-Mas.

I played against South Carolina in their last road game, which was a 78-69 loss to Tennessee, another game that closed in the Pick 'em range. That followed a narrow win at Ole Miss where overtime was required after the Gamecocks somehow rallied back from an 11-point deficit in the final four minutes. They've also lost by 23 at Alabama. Yes, Martin's team has bounced back w/ B2B wins, including avenging that 'Bama loss on Saturday.  But they shouldn't count on getting to the free throw line 46 times like they did Saturday (only made 28!). Plus, it will be tough for USC to continue getting away w/ allowing 37.4% three-point shooting on the road. Georgia's three-point numbers are more in line w/ what you'd like to see.  10* Georgia

8* Under Magic/Spurs (8:35 ET): Finally, at long last, Orlando ended its miserable losing streak (at eight games) w/ a 119-114 upset of Boston yday. The Magic ended January w/ just two wins (against 12 losses) and weren't much better at the betting window either w/ a 3-11 ATS mark. I certainly won't want to back them here as they face a San Antonio team that's off a rare humbling defeat, but at the same time the Magic were once upon a time one of the better ATS teams in the league (21-9 through 30 games!) and probably are due to start covering more games moving forward. Thus, we turn to the total, which I believe to be far too high given the Spurs' defensive prowess and the fact Orlando is due to start regressing offensively.  Under is the play here.

Over their last five games, the Magic are scoring an average of 106.2 points per game, which is well above their overall season average of 99.2 PPG and even more so above their average out on the road of 96.4 PPG. In yday's win over Boston, they shot 53.7 percent from the floor (56.8 percent in the second half) and made 10 three-pointers.  Regression is to be expected here as they face the top defensive team in the league, the Spurs, who allow just 89.6 PPG here at home on 42.5% shooting. If there is one "silver lining" for Orlando here it's that San Antonio is unlikely to connect on as many three-pointers (16!) as Boston did last night. Orlando's defensive numbers over the last five games (112.0 PPG allowed) are also significantly higher than the season average (100.2), so all around we're due to start seeing their games be a lot lower scoring, especially after each of those last five went Over.

Twice in the last three games, San Antonio's top ranked defense has been shredded.  Both times came against top tier opponents, however. Last Monday, it was Golden State scoring 120 in a 30-point blowout win and then Saturday, Cleveland nearly matched that w/ 117 pts. Both of those games were also on the road. Tim Duncan likely misses a fourth straight game here, but the key here is that off a loss, the Spurs are allowing just 84.7 PPG this season (7-0 SU/ATS). Orlando is 7-2 Under after topping 105 pts in its last game. 8* Under Magic/Spurs

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET):  Despite being considered no worse than the fourth best team in basketball (I have them ranked 3rd), the Thunder have had plenty of problems w/ the pointspread this season. In fact, entering today, they have the second worst ATS record in the entire league (18-30-1 ATS), trailing only Phoenix. Yet the market continues to respect them and deservedly so. They are 36-13 straight up and have lost only one time in their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the non-political news out of Washington shows that the Wizards are off an outright win over Houston (whom OKC also just beat in their last game) after calling a "players-only" meeting. Some will be foolish enough to think that said meeting corrected whatever ails the Wiz, but not I, as the fact of the matter is this team simply isn't very good. Lay the points.

Oklahoma City does come into tonight on a five-game ATS losing streak. The problem has been their defense, which has allowed 115 points per game during that time.  Consider though that one of those games did go to overtime. Also, four were played on the road. Their last, a 116-108 win over Houston wasn't, but they still are allowing just 98.4 PPG here at home for the season.  A "return to form" is what I expect here tonight. The Thunder should have a big edge defensively as Washington is just awful on that end of the floor, ranking 20th in efficiency and giving up 104.8 PPG. With OKC being #2 in offensive efficiency, they should have no problems scoring here against the Wizards.

These teams already met once this season and the Thunder dominated in D.C., winning 125-101. They were a seven-point favorite in that contest, which makes the line rather curious here. Not surprisingly, OKC shot the ball very well against the Wizards, finishing 51.2% for the game, including 15 of 23 from three-point range. Washington was just 39.2% overall and 5 of 24 from behind the arc. I anticipate tonight's game to play out in similar fashion. The Wizards are just 2-7 ATS off a SU dog win this year and w/o HC Randy Wittman (brother passed away).  Westbrook and Durant will be too much.  10* Oklahoma City

10* Louisville (7:00 ET):  Rick Pitino's Cardinals ran into a buzzsaw named Virginia Saturday afternoon. The 11th ranked Cavaliers came to the KFC YUM! Center and destroyed the Cards, 63-47 as five-point dogs. Things got ugly in a hurry w/ L'ville scoring only 14 first half points en route to suffering their worst ever loss at the KFC YUM! Center. There were 18 turnovers and UVA shot a somewhat preposterous 58 percent from the field w/ L'ville shot a season-worst 33 percent. As bad as that all sounds, the good news is that it's just one game and Pitino's charges will have a shot at atoning for that miserable performance here tonight, back at home, against #2 North Carolina. The computers still love Louisville and so do I, thus I'll call for a bounce back and a win.

Right after Louisville had been humbled by Virginia Saturday afternoon, North Carolina took care of business (as 26-pt favorites!) at home against Boston College. It's quite rare to see a favorite of that size in conference play, but it was actually the second time the Tar Heels had been favored by that many over the Eagles in recent years. The win was UNC's 12th in a row, but I believe it's important to note that none of those came against ranked opponents and just one (Clemson) opponent had a winning record in ACC play. They did beat a pretty good NC State team by 12 in Chapel Hill, but overall the ACC slate has been pretty "light" for Roy Williams and company. Forcing turnovers (season-high 23) vs. Boston College was a real key Saturday. Interestingly, before shooting 53.7 percent against BC, the Tar Heels had been below 40 percent from the field in three consecutive games. 

Clearly, each team's previous result has played a significant role in this line being so low. I'm quite fond of the ideas of "buying low" and "selling high," and that's what we have the opportunity to do here.  Consider that Louisville still has one of the best scoring differentials in the country (+19.1 PPG) and even after the loss to Virginia that number jumps to +26.8 at home!  One would have to go pretty far back in time to find the last time the Cardinals were this small a home favorite, let alone a Pick or even underdog. The value here resides w/ them, plus UNC's three point shooting numbers should continue to worry their backers (just 30.8% themselves, 41.8% allowed). 10* Louisville

10* Arizona State (8:30 ET):   Oregon is off a very impressive road win as they snapped Arizona's 49-game home win streak Thursday w/ an 83-75 win as seven-point underdogs. Now comes the inevitable letdown as they have to play a second road game this weekend, this one in Tempe. Arizona State was due for a big win (had lost three straight by 5 pts or less) and that's what they got w/ an 86-68 beatdown of Oregon State here on Thursday.  That improved their mark to a strong 9-3 straight up here in Tempe this season.  They played the Ducks tough twice last year, but lost both meetings by a total of four points.  Time for a bit of revenge in my estimation as this is just the third time the Sun Devils are catching points in Tempe. The first saw them beat Texas A&M (a top five team!) outright.  Take the points.

Oregon shot 51.6% in their upset of Arizona, but the bigger story was them overcoming the Wildcats shooting 61.0% from the field!  Obviously, it is unlikely that they will have such a hot shooting opponent again. But the Ducks are just 1-6 against the spread the last seven times they have laid three points or less on the road and have lost five of those games outright. We know that the rankings can often times be misleading and the fact is that there's really little difference between where Oregon is at (23rd) and Arizona State is. When taking home court advantage into account, I'm not sure that the wrong team isn't favored here. The Ducks were only 1-2 SU in "true" road games before the upset of Arizona.

ASU shot a season-best 59.3% vs. Oregon State, but the more encouraging sign for HC Bobby Hurley had to be his team's defense.  OSU's best player, Gary Payton II, was held to just two points. On offensive, five Sun Devils scored in double figures and it should be noted that the team has topped 80 points in every Pac 12 home game so far.  Another key here could be free throw shooting. As "eye rolling" as it may be, the ASU fans distracting opposing FT shooters does work (road teams shooting just 68.7% from the FT line here) and Oregon is the worst FT shooting team in the Pac 12.  10* Arizona State

8* Illinois (7:30 ET): If you like close games, then you have to be loving Wisconsin's run here in Big 10 play, which has seen all but one game (a 79-57 win over lowly Rutgers) decided by six points or less. Following three straight tough losses (by a total of nine points), the Badgers have rallied back to win three in a row (by a total of 10 pts), including Tuesday's 82-79 upset of Indiana (were 1.5 pt home dogs) that required overtime. I was on the Badgers there, but after pulling two upsets in the last three games, now it's time to fade as they visit an Illinois team that will be angry after suffering a home loss (as 2-pt favorites) to Ohio State earlier in the week. The Illini will also have revenge on their minds for last season's sweep at the hands of the Badgers. Take the points.

It was also an overtime game for Illinois their last time out, but as I just stated, they came out on the wrong end against Ohio State. They shot just 32 percent from the field and missed 13 of 31 free throws, costly seeing as the game went to OT.  They did trail by as many as 13 in the second half, so perhaps a late rally will carry over into this game. It's been a tough time for John Groce's team in Big 10 play (2-6 SU conference record), but they have been much better defensively the L2 games (both of which went to OT), holding opponents to 69.5 PPG despite the 10 extra minutes played and have one of the lowest turnover rates in the entire nation (14.3 percent). Better time should be ahead.

I really don't think that Wisconsin should be favored here. They are just 5-8 ATS in that role this season and have a losing road record (straight up).  They did cover as a short road favorite 10 days ago, but that was against Penn State.  Note that Illinois did beat Purdue on this floor earlier this month.  The Illini's top two scorers - Malcolm Hill (18.3 PPG) and Kendrick Nunn (17.9) remain the league's highest scoring duo on any team. Shockingly, Wisconsin has won eight straight in this Big 10 rivalry, including a pair of double digit wins last season.  After topping 80 points in their previous game, the Badgers are 0-3 ATS this season. It's time for Wisconsin to cool off and Illinois to pick up a big win. 8* Illinois

10* Phoenix (7:05 ET):  Back on December 14th, Dallas picked up what seemed like a "ho-hum" 104-94 home win and cover (-3.5) at the expense of Phoenix.  Since that time, I probably don't need to tell you that it's been nothing but "dark days" for these Suns, who have gone an unfathomably bad 3-20 SU their last 23 games. The result of this is a much larger spread for tonight's trip into "Big D" and this time, I think there is some pretty significant value on the visitors. Remember that last week's top play was on a large underdog (Brooklyn) that seemingly had nothing going right for it. It's a similar mentality tonight in taking the points as the Mavs probably don't deserve to be in such a lofty price range.

Tonight actually marks the first time that Dallas has been favored in consecutive games since early in the month when they hosted New Orleans and Sacramento (didn't cover either game). Helping to drive up the line here is the fact the Mavericks are coming off a 91-79 win and cover over Brooklyn Friday night. That was the second fewest points given up by the Mavs in a game all season. The fewest was 77 in a win over Chicago on January 15th and note they followed that performance up by losing by 29 at San Antonio (allowed 112 pts). Despite being five games over .500, the Mavs have been outscored by their opponents this season and they've had a great deal of good fortune this month, winning three overtime games. When factoring out those OT sessions, the team has topped 100 pts only three times in January!

For Phoenix, this is the finale of a four-game trip, the first three all resulting in double digit losses.  Just to show how much the market has (deservingly) shifted against them, the Suns were six-point favorites in the season opener vs. Dallas. I took the Mavs there, but public perception has now shifted too far in the other direction.  The Mavs' 28-21 ATS record is a far cry from last year while no one has been worse than Phoenix at the betting window this season. However, the great equalizer here is the fact that Dallas has not been a double digit fave even one time in 2015-16.  Take the points. 10* Phoenix

10* Evansville (4:00 ET):  This is a matchup of the top two teams in the Missouri Valley and for first place Wichita State, who is two games up, they have an opportunity to put some real distance between them and the field. However, the Purple Aces of Evansville should have something to say about that as not only did they come closer than any other MVC team to beating the Shockers, but they are also a perfect 11-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average margin of almost 20 points per game! Last month in Wichita, Evansville lost by only three (as 10.5-pt underdogs), but because of how dominant the Shockers have been recently, the linesmakers have adjusted "the other way."  That's a mistake.  Take the points.

Evansville has just four losses all season. The first came at a neutral site vs. Providence, a top 10 team. The others (besides Wichita State) were on the road against Arkansas and Indiana State. The latter came exactly one week ago, but the Purple Aces quickly bounced back by downing Southern Illinois (in overtime) at Carbondale, 85-78, thanks to shooting 55 percent from the field.  Normally, I might be inclined to call for regression with that shooting percentage, but this is a team making 56% of its two-point attempts this season (they're not bad from 3pt range either - 38.2%). Indiana State and Wichita State are the only teams to hold them below 50 percent in conference play. The Purple Aces are 6-2 ATS in January.

  There is no denying how dominant Wichita State has been in conference play. They're 9-0 SU, winning by an average of 21.1 points per game! However, this is the only opponent that has been able to stay within single digits of them. Consider that in that first meeting, WSU never had a lead of more than nine points. It's not hyperbole to call this the Purple Aces' biggest home game in years as they have lost six straight times to Wichita State, including a humiliating 61-41 loss here last season. I expect the crowd to be rocking Sunday afternoon. Wichita State has been ridiculous on the road the L3 seasons (23-9 ATS), but I think we've reached the proverbial "tipping point" w/ this bunch, who cannot continue their current pace for much longer.  10* Evansville

10* Ohio State (1:00 ET): The Buckeyes just pulled an upset in their last game (on the road vs. Illinois), but winning here would be even more impressive as #8 Maryland comes calling to Columbus. OSU catches the Terrapins in prime position for a letdown after they picked up a big win over Iowa (in College Park) earlier this week. This is also a huge revenge spot for Thad Matta's team after they were humbled 100-65 down in Maryland just two weeks ago. However, the shift in scene is vital as the Terps have dropped their L2 road games, to Michigan and Michigan State. Also, they lost here last season by 24. Thanks to holding opponents to just 60.1 PPG, OSU is 11-3 SU here in Columbus and they have what it takes to pull the upset. Take the points.

Like last year, the computers and various rating systems are not really in love w/ this Maryland team. Thursday's 74-68 (were 5.5 pt favorites) win over Iowa was their first all season over a ranked opponent. They haven't even had many opportunities to win in that situation, mind you, as prior to the L2 games, they'd played just one ranked team, that being North Carolina. Furthermore, this is just their fourth "true" road game (only win by three at Wisconsin), so the Terrapins still have a lot to prove, IMO. Four of their conference wins, including Iowa, have come by six points or less. They had an issue w/ giving up far too many offensive rebounds against Michigan State and Northwestern and that could be an issue here against an opponent that has dominated the glass in its last two games.

Ohio State has covered three in a row since that humiliating loss in College Park. If something could go wrong in that first meeting, it did, as Maryland shot 62.7% compared to just 37.3% for OSU. Clearly, you should expect those percentages to even out here. The Buckeyes have held their last two opponents both under 34 percent shooting and as mentioned before have been quite stingy this season at home. As a result, three of their four Big 10 home games have resulted in double digit wins! Under Matta, they are 8-2 ATS seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points and this year they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home when the total is 135 to 139.5.  8* Ohio State

8* Portland (10:00 ET):  The Pilots really let me down Thursday night w/ an 87-76 outright loss here at home to San Francisco.  But, despite that, I see them bouncing back in yet another revenge spot, this time against Santa Clara. These teams first met back on January 2nd and there it was Santa Clara prevailing 84-77 as 1.5-point home dogs. But the Broncos' chances of making it a season sweep seem pretty slim to me as they are just 2-8 SU away from home, including 1-6 in "true" road games. Portland has already lost outright (as favorites) four times in conference play. They couldn't possibly get swept for a second time, losing all four games outright, right?   Lay the points.

Portland had revenge Thursday vs. USF, but fell behind big early (41-25) and could not recover. That makes it seven losses in eight games since opening up 2-0 SU in WCC play. That skid began w/ a loss at San Francisco, which was then followed by a dismal shooting performance (33.3 percent) at Santa Clara. Offense typically is not an issue for these Pilots, who are averaging 77.9 PPG this year, including an impressive 82.2 at home. That's a far cry from their opponent here as Santa Clara checks in at just 65.5 points per game. Assuming Portland can tighten up its defensive woes, it should theoretically be in good shape here. It's their second straight home game while its the Broncos second road game in three nights.

Santa Clara was predictably torched by Gonzaga their last time out, losing 84-67.  Though they did cover (as 18-pt dogs), it was the team's third loss in a row overall.  All three losses have been by double digits.  Like Portland, the Broncos currently find themselves in the lower tier of the conference, so this is a matchup the home team simply must take advantage of.  The key in that first meeting was Santa Clara going a season-best 32 of 37 from the free throw line.  I don't see anywhere close to a repeat of that here.  8* Portland

10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): Recently, the Kings have been favored quite a number of times and that's caught me by surprise. The team is now six games below the Mendoza Line (.500), yet has been deemed the favorite by the oddsmakers five times in the last six games. The first three, they actually won and covered. But the last two, including Thursday night in New Orleans, they lost outright. Back to their customary role of taking points, I feel the Kings are a good value tonight in Memphis against a suddenly surging opponent. Defensively, they may still have their issues (30th in PPG allowed), but the Grizzlies are bound to start cooling off. Take the points.

When it comes to actual vs. expected wins, no team in the league has a bigger discrepancy than Memphis. Based on point differential alone, they should be a 20-win team (actual record is 27-20), which would have them on par with the Kings. Thus, I'm not surprised to see the Grizz only being given credit for the home court edge here in what linesmakers see as a essentially a toss-up.  I will concede that Memphis' point differential remains a bit skewed from some early season blowouts that they suffered, but still, I don't think they're as good as their overall record. Offensively, they've been playing above their heads the last seven games after previously averaging a Western Conference low 95.9 PPG. While they did destroy Milwaukee in impressive fashion Thursday (I cashed the Under in that game), note that four of their previous six wins had come by three points or fewer.

George Karl was not on the bench for the Kings when they went down in New Orleans, 114-105, Thursday night.  It appeared they missed him as they fell down 37-19 after just one quarter. Karl is not guaranteed to return tonight, but I would look for DeMarcus Cousins to continue his recent strong play on the offensive end. He went for 26-10-6 in the losing effort vs. the Pelicans and will be the best player on the floor tonight. Memphis doesn't have anyone that can go for 30 points in a half like Ryan Anderson did for New Orleans. The Grizzlies are also just 3-6 SU/ATS this season following a double digit win. 10* Sacramento

10* Georgetown (8:00 ET):  Providence is a team that despite its #10 ranking doesn't get a ton of respect. Case in point, the Friars are underdogs here to an unranked Georgetown team. Most rating systems also aren't as sold on them. Two of the main ones I follow actually have them outside the top 40! So, they'll probably be a good "go against" team for me that first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but first we have some regular season opportunities to fade this group.  One such opportunity is tonight as G'town is quietly improving. Sure, it was just a one-point win over Creighton (at home) Tuesday. But that made it four wins in the last six games for the Hoyas and the only two losses came to Villanova (who's very good) and at UConn.  Lay the points here as this will be called an "upset," but really it's not.

After upsetting Villanova on Sunday, Providence somewhat predictably fell in a tough spot vs. Xavier just two days later.  Tuesday was not a great shooting night for the Friars, who finished the game at just 31.4% overall, including 7 of 34 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Xavier was able to get shots to fall against their zone. Good fortune, for the most part, has gone Providence's way this season as they are 5-1 SU in games decided by four points or less. They also are one of only four teams nationally yet to drop a "true" road game. They are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in other teams' gyms, but the margins for error have often been razor slim, including a 50-48 win at Creighton earlier this year where they somehow got away w/ shooting only 29.6% from the field.

Georgetown recently beat Xavier, on the road, and did so by holding the Musketeers to just 35.3% shooting. They followed that up w/ another sound defensive effort at UConn, but lost close.  However, rallying back from 11 down to beat Creighton earlier this week might be a turning point.  Note that the Hoyas actually have a better record in Big East play compared to Providence (6-2 vs. 5-3) and are only a game back of Villanova for first place.  This is a double revenge spot for the home team as well as LY saw them lose both meetings by three points.  10* Georgetown

10* Indiana (7:05 ET):  Needless to say, January has not gone as well as December did for the Pacers.  They are just 6-8 - both straight up and against the spread - this month, but you certainly had to like what you saw Thursday night here at home when they thrashed Atlanta 111-92 as three-point favorites. That marked just the second time in the last eight games that they covered, the other being a 12-point loss at Golden State where they were getting 12.5 (I cashed them there!). Here, they are laying a relatively sizable number, but "it's only Denver" and I think you have to like the Pacers' chances. Not only is it the Nuggets' third road game in four nights, but Indiana has revenge for a loss suffered just two weeks ago. Lay the points.

The Pacers wasted what was perhaps their best offensive game of the year January 17th in Denver, losing 129-126 despite shooting 58.5% from the field, including 9 of 19 from three-point range. They gave up a mind-numbing 45 points in the fourth quarter and were outscored 16-7 over the final 3:39.  Not to make excuses, but Indiana was a bit short-handed there as only 10 players dressed, which is tough when playing in the altitude. This is a much better team at home (14-7 SU) w/ an average scoring margin of +6.1 PPG and a change in the starting lineup worked big time in the last game. Starting for the first time in his career, Myles Turner went for 20 points against the Hawks. Once again, I do not think offense will be a concern here for the Pacers.

Denver is off an outright win at Washington two nights ago, 117-113 (were getting 7.5), one night removed from "backdooring" Boston (trailed by 20+).   Despite going 6-1 ATS their last seven games, the Nuggets are giving up an average of 111.7 points per game during that stretch.  Off a SU win as a dog, they are just 4-9 ATS this year and I think the offensive numbers are due to drop here considering their YTD scoring average away from home is just 98.7.  They've played a ton of close games recently, but at the end of a trip out East, I see them simply running out of gas here. I just think that because of recent form on both sides, the pointspread does not accurately reflect the gap between these two.  10* Indiana

10* NC State (3:00 ET):  Last Saturday, I went AGAINST the Wolfpack, here in Raleigh. They hosted desperate Duke team (that was on a three-game losing streak) and after a surprisingly good start (led 43-36 at halftime), eventually the Blue Devils proved to be too much and it ended up being an 88-78 final w/ Duke covering as chalk. Honestly, having already won two early plays that day (ended up going 5-0!), I somewhat had written off that one as a loss. NC State HC Mark Gottfried has every right to say his team is "better than the record" as despite the 1-7 SU mark in ACC play, almost every game has been close (five losses by 7 pts or less). Miami, who is off a win over Duke on Monday, comes in here and I feel is quite vulnerable. Take the points.

Against Duke, NC State definitely played good enough to win. They shot 57 percent in the first half and were up by as many as 10. They just couldn't stop Duke in the second half and defense was again an issue Wednesday vs. Georgia Tech as they gave up 90 points. There, the 1st half performance was not good as they were down 47-33 at the break. Thanks to a career-high 22 points from Abdul-Malik Abu and 36 more from Anthony Barber (ACC's leading scorer), the Wolfpack were able to whittle that lead down to one. But, alas, it was not to be.  In my mind, I just can't see them dropping a third game in a row at home. Overall, they are 0-4 SU in ACC home games, twice losing outright as favorites.

Miami is probably in position for a letdown after beating Duke.  Said PG Angel Rodriguez, "I like playing the powerhouses."  In many ways, Monday was the Hurricanes best game so far in conference play.  They shot 50.8 percent from the field and turned the ball over only seven times. Interesting is that this team is 0-4 ATS in "true" road games so far, including a pair of outright losses to Virginia and Clemson earlier this month. There's an actually been an issue for them in getting off to slow starts as in conference play, they're averaging just 29.3 PPG in the first half. NC State has just been so close so many times that I feel they are just "due" for an upset here. 10* NC State

8* Florida (12:00 ET):  The Gators are one of those teams that still draw respect from the computers despite a relatively pedestrian won-loss record. Michael White's (still feels weird not saying Billy Donovan) crew has three losses this season by three points or fewer. That includes Tuesday's tough one-point loss at similarly under-achieving Vanderbilt where they were held to just 0.86 points per possession. What then can we lean on for support? How about the country's fourth best defense in terms of adjusted efficiency (.898 PPP)? That will come in handy here seeing as they welcome in the team that's #1 in defensive efficiency currently, that being West Virginia, Saturday as a part of the Big 12-SEC Challenge. As tough as the Mountaineers have been, their defensive numbers are more likely to regress and they are down one key player due to suspension. Lay the points.

After suffering B2B losses to Oklahoma and Texas, WVU has bounced back w/ consecutive victories over Texas Tech and Kansas State. The latter shot just 35.1% percent against them. As I've written about before, this team cannot possibly maintain it's defensive field goal percentage numbers. Teams are shooting just 26.8% against them from three-point range (Kansas St was 1 for 18!) and that number actually goes DOWN when they are the road team. We've actually already started to see a minor increase in opponent's overall shooting percentage. At the same time, the Mounties are shooting 46.7% themselves on the road. Again, that could prove difficult to sustain. Bob Huggins' team is 0-3 ATS vs. the SEC the L3 seasons.

The Gators are actually holding their opponents to a lower overall shooting percentage (38.6%!) than WVU.  Being favored here, against a Top 10 opponent, is not problematic seeing as UF is 9-1 SU in Gainesville this year and 11-2 SU/8-4 ATS as chalk. The key suspension for WVU that I referenced earlier is forward Jonathan Holton, who had been averaging a double-double (12.3 points, 10.3 rebounds) the L3 games. Provided Florida can regain the shooting touch they lost vs. Vandy (had previously made 9+ 3-pt FGs in four straight games) & takes care of the basketball, this will be an upset that isn't really an upset. 8* Florida

8* Under Rockets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Houston was in the proverbial "wrong place at the wrong time," matched up with San Antonio on Wednesday as the Spurs were in an angry mood after being dealt a 30-point loss by Golden State Monday. The result was the "script being flipped" on the Rockets as they got blown out 130-99. Defense has often become optional for this team this year, which is why they have struggled for much of the campaign and are a big money burner at the betting window.  Tonight's opponent, Oklahoma City, is actually worse against the spread (18-29-1 overall) after just going 0-4 on a recently completed road trip (did win three of the four games straight up). Thus, the best play here is on the total and I think it's the Under as we have a really high number, one that's higher than the last meeting which also stayed Under.

This is just the 6th time this season that we've seen a total north of 220 points. Four of the previous five were Golden State vs. Sacramento, a pairing of the league's highest scoring offense against the worst defense. The other did involve the Thunder (hosting the Kings) and the final score there stayed well below the number as it was a 98-95 final. The total here is higher, so this marks a season-high O/U line for both squads. When they last played, very early in the season in Houston, the final score was 110-105 in favor of the Thunder. Recent form on both ends has the number even higher for the rematch and I certainly think there's now plenty of value in calling for another Under.

Each of OKC's last two games have seen them score and allow 120+ points. But one of those (at New York) went to overtime.  The Over cashed in all four games on their just completed trip, but interestingly the Under is 17-9 this season in their home games. That includes a 6-4 mark when the total is north of 210 points. Defensively, the Thunder are allowing only 98.0 PPG here at Chesapeake Energy Arena. As for Houston, the Over is 6-1 for them the L7 games. But as an underdog this season, the Under had been 11-3 for them before their last three times in that role. Too much has to "break right" for a game to go Over a total like this. 8* Under Rockets/Thunder

10* WI-Milwaukee (8:00 ET):  This in-state, Horizon League rivalry is renewed for the 54th time Friday night and crazy as this may seem, Milwaukee has yet to cover a single home game this season (0-6 ATS). The Panthers check in off an outright loss, as 3.5-point favorites, to Oakland earlier in the week. They lost the game 82-79 as Oakland sharpshooter Max Hooper made seven three-pointers. The program has had to deal w/ some attrition lately as second leading scorer Akeem Springs (14.3 PPG) is injured and Justin Jordan (MJ's nephew) transferred. Despite that, I like the matchup tonight vs. Green Bay, who is just atrocious defensively. Tonight also marks a double revenge spot for the Panthers. Lay the points.

Green Bay is one of the most unique teams in the entire country. What I mean by the term "unique" is that they are incredible offensively, yet horrendous defensively. All program records on the offensive end are set to be smashed in this, the first year under HC Linc Darner. The Phoenix average 86.2 points per game, second most in the nation, due in large part to their ability to get to the free throw line (30.4 attempts per game!). But being on the road here likely limits just how much they get to the charity stripe and then there's the matter of the defense, which has allowed 100+ points FIVE times this season, including each of the last two games!  They are allowing 81.3 PPG for the season. 

After giving up 111 in regulation to Oakland on Saturday, Green Bay gave up 108 in an overtime win vs. Detroit (at home) on Monday. Note that snapped a four-game ATS losing streak in Horizon League play for the Phoenix.  Did I mention that Milwaukee already averages 85.6 PPG here at home? This game marks a dramatic departure from the previous five meetings, all of which have seen Green Bay favored, four times by double digits in fact. The Phoenix shot better than 55 percent from the floor in BOTH meetings last year, something I do not see happening here, even w/ the prolific offense. I'm just not sure they can continue competing with a defense this bad. 10* WI-Milwaukee

10* Orlando (7:35 ET):  Both the Magic & Celtics are coming off somewhat of a "bad beat" in their previous games. Orlando actually led Milwaukee (on the road) by as many as 16 in the first half before wilting late and failing to even cover the 5.5-pt spread (lost 107-100). Meanwhile, Boston may have gotten the SU win their last time out, but the result at the betting window was just as unfortunate as Orlando's w/ them seeing a 20-point fourth quarter lead whittled down to a final 111-103 margin, thereby denying them the cover against Denver as 8.5-point chalk. Sadly, I was on the wrong end of both of those decisions. But, in a battle of two teams I just backed, I'm going to take the points here as the Magic are more "due" to cover.

Remember when Orlando was the top ATS team in the league? Through their first 30 games, they stood at 21-9 against the spread (70 percent). Since that time, however, things have not gone so well for Scott Skiles' team. They've covered just 2 of their last 13 games and they've won only one time (over Brooklyn) in 2016. They've lost seven in a row coming into tonight, the last three all coming in painful fashion. I already mentioned the blown lead vs. Milwaukee Tuesday night, but before that they dropped B2B overtime games to Charlotte and Memphis. Despite all the recent misfortune, I still feel that this is a competitive team. Note that five of their last seven losses have been by seven points or less. They have actually held a double-digit lead in three of the last four games, only to lose every time. 

Boston is a team I've spoken of in glowing terms in past analysis, but they are due to cool off a bit offensively after topping 100 pts in each of their last 10 games. Note that they have not won five games in a row, something they are going for here, at any point this season. Defense has been a key during the win streak, but can they really hold a fifth straight opponent under 43 percent shooting? I'm willing to bet the answer is 'no.' Note that in the previous four games, the Celtics were allowing an average of 113.3 PPG. As two-point home dogs, the Magic destroyed them early this season, 110-91 at home. This shapes up as close game where the value is on the dog. 10* Orlando

8* San Diego (10:30 ET): We are both "buying low" and "selling high" in this conference matchup, which sees USD going for revenge against visiting Pepperdine. I'm not sure who the Torerors angered at the WCC schedule makers office, but so far they have played just six home games. They had to play each of the last four on the road and that went about as well as expected w/ them dropping the last three after an upset of Portland. However, after getting blown out at both Gonzaga and Pepperdine, things were a lot closer Saturday at Loyola Marymount where they lost by only four (as six-point dogs). Meanwhile, this is a good spot to fade Pepperdine, who followed up their blowout of the Torerors w/ an upset of BYU over the weekend.  Take the points.

Pepperdine was an 11.5-point home favorite when they beat up on USD, 76-58, exactly one week ago. Now, they are being asked to lay a number that's somewhat close to that on the road. Clearly, the linesmakers had to adjust because of the final score of last week's meeting, but don't expect the Waves to come in and shoot 52.3% from the floor like they did at home. Interestingly, they are just 4-8 against the spread when favored this season and just 4-7 SU away from home (includes neutral site games). This marks the fourth time that Pepperdine has been favored out on the conference road and in two of the previous three instances, they have lost the game outright (at Portland and Santa Clara). 

It was an all-around disastrous shooting effort for San Diego last Thursday as they finished the game at just 37.9 percent, including 5 for 19 from three-point range. They also were just 9 for 15 from free throw line. Scoring has been a bit of a concern this year for the Torerors, but defense has not, at least here at home where they are limiting foes to just 61.8 PPG. If they can keep Pepperdine right around that number, then they should be in excellent shape tonight.  Again, this team just hasn't gotten to play many home games this season. Saturday at LMU, the Torerors blew a nine-point lead w/ just over five minutes to go. This is their chance to make up for that and exact some revenge in the process. 8* San Diego

10* Portland (10:00 ET):  We've reached the point in several of these conferences where revenge will start to become a factor. Yes, the revenge angle can be overplayed. But here, I think we have an excellent opportunity to cash in on a team whose current status clearly reads "buy low."  Portland is coming off B2B road losses, first to Pacific, then to St. Mary's, and that has left the Pilots at just 9-13 SU for the year. They've now dropped six of their last seven and that slide started w/ a 107-95 loss at San Francisco (no overtime!), a game where they were actually favored by two. Now having to lay just a few points more at home, where Portland is 7-3 SU and much better defensively, seems like a solid value to me. 

That first meeting between these two was rather insane as Portland actually scored 62 points in the first half and led by 15 w/ just under 13 minutes to play. From there though, USF caught fire, outscoring the Pilots 41-14 the rest of the way. The fact that Portland ended up losing by 12 is very misleading in the sense that they missed their final eight three-point attempts and five of those had a chance to tie the game. It is highly unlikely here that the Dons will come in and shoot 58.3 percent from the floor like they did at home on New Year's Eve.  They also got to the free throw line 40 times the first go around.  Looking back, perhaps Portland got excited about their New Year's plans just a little bit too early. 

The Pilots are a solid 9-2 ATS this season when taking on teams w/ a winning record and San Francisco is now 10-9 SU following an upset of Santa Clara (on the road) exactly one week ago. I really can't see the Dons making it B2B road wins, especially w/ them allowing 76.6 points per game for the season. Portland certainly has had little issue scoring this year (82.0 PPG at home!), so after a couple of "off-nights", I look for them to take advantage here of a USF team that has twice given up 100+ points. Looking at the Dons' last seven games, road wins over San Diego and Santa Clara were the exceptions defensively as in the other five, they allowed 87+ pts. Portland ran into hot-shooting St. Mary's their last time out (62.5 FG%!), something they won't have to worry about here. 10* Portland

10* Northwestern (9:00 ET):  Here's yet another opportunity to exploit the rankings. As I've been writing about a lot lately, home dogs, when unranked, have fared quite well for themselves this year when welcoming in a ranked foe. Last night, I had Arkansas, who handed Texas A&M its first loss in some time.  Here, we have a Northwestern team that was once 13-1 straight up, but Big 10 play has been unkind, leaving them 15-6 currently. The Wildcats are off their worst loss of the season (in terms of margin), 89-57 at Indiana, so there's now some value here. Michigan State treated me well Saturday (Game of the Week WINNER vs. Maryland), but this shapes up as a letdown spot for them after such a big win. Take the points.

Remember that Sparty had lost three in a row itself before turning back Maryland Saturday night.  Granted, two of the losses were by a single point and that played into me taking them in that spot.  But it was by no means easy for Tom Izzo's team against the Terps as it was still only a three-point game w/ only 23 seconds remaining. Six made free throws made the final margin seem a little more comfortable than it actually was as MSU shot a season-worst 36.1 percent from the floor. Playing on the road here, I wouldn't look for them to have a near 2:1 advantage in FT attempts, which is what they enjoyed vs. Maryland.

Meanwhile, N'western is likely due for some offensive improvement after being held under 60 pts in B2B games. One of those saw them lose to Maryland in overtime, on the road, a game where they arguably looked like the better team.  Here in Evanston, they are outscoring opponents by almost 14 PPG thanks to holding them to 38.7% overall shooting. At the same time, the Wildcats' own shooting numbers (46.9% at home) look pretty good. Success against Izzo has been virtually non-existent (3-29 SU L32), but for a program that infamously has NEVER made the NCAA Tournament, a win here could go a long way in re-establishing their standing w/ the committee after the fast start. Look for leading scorer Bryant McIntosh to have a big bounce back game here. 10* Northwestern

10* Under Bucks/Grizzlies (8:05 ET):  Needless to say, Memphis has caught a lot of folks off-guard w/ this run of theirs. Not the one that's seen them capture 10 of their last 14 games, mind you, but rather a streak of going Over the total in eight consecutive contests.  On offense, they have topped 100 pts in all but one of those games, curious for a team still only averaging 96.8 points per game for the year. They've also allowed triple digits in five of the games, including three straight.  The oddsmakers have clearly been slow to "catch on" here, but tonight I think we have an excellent opportunity at an Under as Milwaukee comes to town. Consider that the O/U line here is 10 pts higher than it was for either matchup of these teams last season and both of those games stayed Under! Take the Under.

Now, Milwaukee has regressed badly on the defensive end from last season. They've gone from a second place finish in defensive efficiency last year to being tied at 26th this year. They give up 104.3 points per game on the road and I thought they were quite lucky to come away w/ the win, let alone cover, Tuesday night vs. Orlando. I find it surprising that the Bucks are tied w/ Sacramento for the highest point per game average in the paint in the entire league (49.3). But they figure to meet some resistance here as Memphis gives up the fewest at 37.9 PPG. The Bucks have been shooting the ball pretty well of late, something I don't see being the case here, nor do I see them even approaching the 107 pts scored in their last game.

The key to this play will be Milwaukee somehow limiting Memphis' scoring. Grizzlies HC Dave Joerger has been playing around w/ his lineups a lot lately and has been successful in doing so.  But the one area that the Bucks really struggle to defend, the three-point line, is something that Memphis is unlikely to take too much advantage of. The Grizz rank just 27th in the league in 3pt FG made and attempted. Interestingly, the Bucks rank even lower at 28th in number of three-pointers made and 29th in attempts. Memphis is 5-2 Under this season after scoring 105+ pts its previous game.  10* Under Bucks/Grizzlies

10* Dallas (10:35 ET): The Mavs are in the unusual position of going from 7.5-pt road favorites one game to huge double digit dogs the next, which is quite the shift and of course has everything to do with the respective opponents. Last night, it was the Lakers and Dallas surprisingly escaped LA only a 92-90 winner.  That coupled w/ the fact that this is a revenge spot for Golden State has this line approaching the point of madness and in my estimation the value is on the dog here.  Throw in the fact that the Warriors just clobbered the Spurs by 30 and the public's fascination with the defending NBA Champs figures to be back at pre-New Year's levels. Take the points as the Mavs won't be this big of an underdog the rest of the season.

When these teams last met, it was a much different set of circumstances. Golden State still only had one loss, but was going to be w/o MVP Steph Curry, so I had no hesitation at all about taking the 3.5 points with Dallas.  I ended up not even needing them as the Mavs rolled to a 114-91 win and cover, which until a January 16th loss at Detroit stood as the Warriors' only double digit loss of the season. This go around, Golden State comes in on fire having just annihilated Cleveland, Chicago, Indiana and San Antonio by a combined 107 points! The rematch is also at home where they have yet to lose. Of course, Curry is back too and he just went for 37 points in 28 minutes against the Spurs. But all this has done is serve to drive up the line, which at this point is simply far too high.

I realize that this is the second game of a back to back for the Mavericks, who are likely to be w/o center Zaza Pachulia and guard Devin Harris. But, despite the close call last night, the team should be relatively fresh. No player was on the court for more than 34 minutes against the Lakers, a game where the team simply was not at its best offensively. Maybe they won't be here either, but then again they don't have to be given how generous the oddsmakers are being. The Mavs are 7-4 SU and ATS this season when playing in the second game of a back to back.  10* Dallas

8* Loyola Chicago (9:00 ET): Was it really just last month that I was writing about what a desperate team Wichita State was? At that time, I was making a play ON the Shockers as they were set to take on Utah. They won the game, 67-50 as 3.5-pt favorites, but followed that up w/ an 80-76 (overtime) loss at Seton Hall which left them at just 5-5 SU for the season. Of course, you could "blame" the absence of Fred VanVleet (injury) for a poor 2-4 start (two losses by four pts or less). However, VanVleet is back and so too are the Shockers, who have ripped through an admittedly weaker than usual Missouri Valley Conference to the tune of eight straight wins by an average margin of 20.5 points per game. This drastic turn of events has of course taken them from being undervalued to now potentially overvalued, thus my next move with WSU is to go against them as they host an opponent that is more formidable than you think. 

Loyola (CHI) is a team whose record does not match its overall level of performance. The Ramblers are basically dead even in points scored vs. allowed this year, but are just 9-11 straight up as they've been on the wrong end of far too many close calls. Consider that prior to pulling off a 51-41 upset at Northern Iowa on January 16th, their previous three games - all losses - were decided by a total of five points. But starting w/ that upset of UNI, we've begun to see a much deserved turnaround here. I took the Ramblers getting a nice number at Evansville last Tuesday, and they stayed within it, then it was a win at home against Drake over the weekend. 

Wichita State has won 27 straight times when favored by 12.5 or more (15-10-2 ATS), but this is going to be a challenge laying this much weight.  Not only are they dealing w/ an underrated opponent, but don't discount the potential for a lookahead to a return date this weekend w/ Evansville, who gave the Shockers all they could handle in Wichita earlier this month. Because the Shockers just covered a 30.5-pt spread over the weekend against an awful Bradley team, the linesmakers had no choice to set the bar really high for this one as well, but it's an inflated number worth taking advantage of.  8* Loyola (Chicago)

10* Utah (9:05 ET):  I'm going to disagree w/ my own power ratings, which have Charlotte as the slightly better team here, and instead lay the points. My reasoning has to do with each team's previous result. Charlotte won another overtime game Monday (now 5-0 SU in OT games this season), this one a double overtime affair at Sacramento where they had to overcome an early 15-point deficit and 56 pts from Boogie Cousins. Keep in mind that the Hornets actually checked in as eight-point dogs for that contest. Utah, meanwhile, has not enjoyed the same kind of good fortune Charlotte has and lost a close one (as three-point favorites) here at home to Detroit its last time out. I believe the Jazz are better than their record shows, so I'll lay the number even though it's slightly inflated.

Despite the win at Sacramento, the Hornets are still only 6-15 SU on the road and are allowing 105.1 PPG. They've won three straight - all as underdogs - but both road wins came in OT and saw them rally back after falling behind by double digits. They in fact have three overtime wins in the last five games. I already touched on the game w/ Sacramento (who I was fortunate enough to play against last night), but should also mention that the Hornets were able to take advantage of the Kings' awful defense and connect on a franchise-record 20 made three-pointers. Here, they'll be running into a far stingier group as the Jazz allow just 97.4 PPG, fifth fewest in the league. 

Charlotte also recently won a game at Orlando where they overcame a 19-point deficit. Their other OT win over the L5 games came against this Utah team back on January 18th, 124-119 as 3.5-pt chalk. That was another 2OT game, one that saw Kemba Walker score 52 points, a feat that's highly unlikely to be repeated here. Utah would love to have some of the Hornets' recent good fortune as they're just 3-6 straight up in their last nine games decided by five points or less. That includes a 95-92 loss at home to Detroit on Monday, which came on the heels of a date with Washington being postponed due to weather. The Jazz shot only 40% in Monday's loss (13-pt first quarter), but thankfully they are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Revenge will be theirs. 10* Utah

10* Houston (8:00 ET): The Cougars are off a very embarrassing loss here as they were 16-point favorites at home against a 3-17 South Florida team (that was down to just SEVEN players) Saturday, but fell 71-62.  As head-scratching a result as that may seem to be, it's easy to finger the reason, which was leading scorer Rob Gray, Jr. (who didn't start, more on that in a bit) finishing the game w/ only ONE point on an 0 for 6 shooting night. Also, despite being at home, the Cougars somehow attempted less free throws than USF made! It's time for Kelvin Sampson (remember him?) to put down the phone because its desperation time w/ his team having lost four straight. Fortunately, I think UH is a great value tonight at home vs. Tulsa.

It was not a good week for Gray, who not only was a healthy scratch in team's 77-73 loss at SMU last Tuesday, but then didn't start and scored just the one point vs. USF. HC Sampson has not been clear on why Gray was punished, but right, wrong or otherwise, his absence definitely hurt his team. Consider that Gray doesn't just lead his own team in scoring, he leads the entire American Conference at 16.6 PPG!  There's been no indication that there will be any more discipline moving forward, so I'm expecting Gray to start tonight. In addition to his not starting, and the free throw discrepancy, I can also chalk up the Cougars' loss to USF as a bit of a letdown spot following the near upset of SMU. Also remember that this team was a perfect 10-0 SU at home (now 10-2) before losing to UConn ten days ago.

If trying to snap a four-game losing streak wasn't enough motivation for Sampson's team, tonight is also a triple revenge spot for them.  Tulsa was a perfect 3 for 3 against Houston last season, including a 59-51 win in the conference tournament. The Golden Hurricane blow in on a five-game SU/ATS win streak, but they've essentially been beating up on the bottom of the league, which is quite weak.  While Houston's offensive numbers are set to improve, Tulsa is just as likely to regress defensively after allowing only 58 PPG (on 38.0% shooting) during the current win streak, setting up a "perfect storm" of sorts for the home team. 10* Houston

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  On the road, I see Denver having little chance of keeping pace in this one.  We know that the Celtics are a better team than their record shows as their +3.9 per game point differential is third best in the East and sixth best in the entire league. They've begun to "put it together" lately w/ three straight wins and covers to improve to a strong 6-2 SU/ATS their last eight.  Many of their wins this season have come in blowout fashion (15 by double digits!) and the last two have been no different as they clobbered Philadelphia and Washington on the road by a combined 35-point margin. Here they face a Denver team that is off a 14-point home loss to Atlanta and only 3-15 SU its last 18 visits to Beantown. Lay the points.

Due to weather, Boston's game with Philadelphia was pushed back to Sunday and not surprisingly they still handled the woeful 76ers, winning 112-92 as eight-point road chalk. Forced into an unscheduled back to back, Brad Stevens' team showed no ill-effects the following night in D.C. as they dismantled the Wizards, 116-91 as 2.5-point dogs.  Scoring has been on the rise for the Celtics, who have averaged 113.7 points per game their last seven contests. That works out great now that they're facing the defensively inept Nuggets, who over their last five games have allowed an average of 111.6 points. I'm a little shocked that Boston is only 12-10 SU at home, but this is a team w/ many close losses on its resume, so that record is set to improve.

Meanwhile, I struggle to find any evidence to support a positive outlook for Denver moving forward. They had actually covered six of seven before falling 119-105 at home to Atlanta on Monday, and what was remarkable is that six of those seven games were decided by three points or less (the other by just six). I'd say it's "high time" for the Nuggets to get blown out, something that really hasn't happened since a pair of double digits losses (to San Antonio and OKC) right after X-Mas.  Consider they lost by 14 at home (trailed by as many as 22) last time out despite going 33 of 37 from the free throw line. It's unlikely that the officials will be "so kind" to them again here. 8* Boston

10* Arkansas (7:00 ET):  Here we are again with yet another opportunity to unload on a team taking points at home vs. a ranked opponent. The Top 25 does a great disservice to the public, who simply sees a number next to one team and automatically assumes they are significantly better. In taking advantage of that misconception multiple times recently, I've talked about how the difference between the 15th and 40th best team in the country is not all that significant, particularly after factoring in home court advantage. That doesn't necessarily apply here, however, as instead we're dealing with a #5 ranked Texas A&M squad that has probably reached its apex. They are ripe to be picked off here by a desperate Arkansas team looking to snap a three-game losing skid. Take the points.

The Razorbacks are now only 9-10 straight up for the year, but two of their three straight losses have been by a combined five points and both were on the road. The last one (76-73 at Georgia) came in overtime and saw the Hogs shoot just 39.3% from the field. That's well below their season average of 46.4 percent and as you like to see w/ any underdog, this one shoots well from three-point range (47% at home!). Here in Fayetteville, the team still averages 88.3 PPG even after a loss to rapidly improving Kentucky last week. That loss was just the fifth for Arkansas in its last 30 SEC home games.

Texas A&M jumped five spots in the polls this week as several teams ahead of them lost. Give credit where it's due, the Aggies are still perfect in SEC play and have won 10 in a row overall. But Arkansas is more likely to be the motivated side in this one, not just because they're at home and playing a Top 5 opponent, but also due to the fact that this is a revenge spot for an ugly 23-point loss in College Station earlier this month. On the road, things have been much tighter for A&M, however. In particular, wins at Mississippi State and Tennessee came by a total of just five points. Defense bailed them out Saturday vs. Missouri as center Tyler Davis sat out. I don't think they can count on that kind of performance being enough here though and a big Top 15 showdown vs. Iowa State this weekend serves as a lookahead.  10* Arkansas

10* Portland (10:05 ET):  Predictably, the line has jumped here as Sacramento is off a tough, 2OT loss to Charlotte last night at home. I had anticipate the line doing that, so please note this play remains valid as the Blazers should win big here. It's tough to imagine the Kings having much left in the tank after Boogie Cousins gave them 56 points in the 129-128 loss Monday that saw them blow all of a 15-point first quarter advantage by midway through the third quarter. Making matters all the more difficult for tonight is that Rudy Gay will have to sit out due to a scratched cornea. Short-handed and likely gassed, I just don't see any way the defensively deficient Kings can keep pace here. Lay the number.

Yes, defense continues to be an issue for Sacramento as they are giving up 107.7 points per game (most in the league) overall and 108.8 PPG on the road. There was some improvement during a 5-0 SU/ATS run heading into last night, but then they allowed the Hornets to connect on 20 three-pointers and produce a 42-point quarter!  In the second of back to backs this season, the team is just 2-9 straight up and allowing 110 points per game. In the five times they've had to go from home to away w/o rest (1-4 SU/2-3 ATS), they're allowing 115 PPG. Simply put, the linesmakers just aren't being kind enough to them considering they face a Portland team that averages 104.8 PPG here at home.

Furthermore, the Blazers are well rested (last played Saturday) and are 6-1 SU/ATS this season when playing with exactly two days off. In a result that should not surprise you, they whipped the Lakers their last time out, 121-103 as 11.5-poiunt home favorites. It was the Blazers fifth win in the last seven games (did lose to Philadelphia!).  This is now a great opportunity for them to overtake the Kings for the coveted 8th spot in the Western Conference. I realize there's still a lot of basketball to be played this regular season, but listen to Portland PG Damian Lillard, "They're in the spot that we want to be in. It's a huge game, tomorrow doesn't decide anything but it's another great opportunity for us on our home court and we're going to go out there and play like it." The Blazers have already beaten the Kings once this year, in Sacramento. 10* Portland

8* Orlando (8:05 ET):  There was a time this season when the Magic were leading the league in the ATS standings, but a disastrous start to 2016 has changed things dramatically. They have still shown a profit at the betting window for the season, mind you, but are just 2-9 ATS in the New Year (1-8 SU w/ the one win coming over Brooklyn). They've lost six in a row straight up, the last two both painfully coming in overtime.  Friday saw them blow a 15-point fourth quarter lead, at home, against Charlotte. Then last night saw them get held to only 35 points in the second half and overtime at Memphis (scored 65 pts before halftime!). Despite the fact they had to play overtime and lost, I still don't see why they should be getting this many points tonight in Milwaukee.  This is yet another classic case of an unrested visiting team being undervalued.

Jason Kidd returns to the Bucks bench tonight, but considering the way the team performed in his absence, I'm not sure this is all too positive of a development. In 18 games w/o their head coach, Milwaukee went a respectable 8-10 straight up. Prior to his hip replacement surgery, the team stood at just 11-17 SU overall. They have lost two straight, the last one coming in the final stop of a four-game road trip, 116-99 at New Orleans. Playing in the second of a back to back, things really fell apart in the second half as the Bucks went from ahead to down 17 in just over 14 minutes of gametime. Defense was again a concern as they allowed the Pelicans to score 30+ points in each of the final three quarters. This team ranks 26th in the league in terms of defensive efficiency.

Orlando crushed Milwaukee in the only prior matchup this year, winning 114-90 as 3.5-point home favorites back in November.  Clearly, it's been a dramatic shift in the market since then, but should there have been?  The Bucks are still a bad team and I don't know that the home court edge they have for this one is going to be enough to offset the discrepancy in defensive numbers.  The Magic hold foes to just 99.4 points per game and my guess is this line would look a lot different had they held on to beat either Charlotte or Memphis.  Take the points.  8* Orlando

8* Wisconsin (7:00 ET): Looking at the results from this year, this past weekend in particular, unranked home dogs hosting a ranked opponent have done unbelievably well. I had a couple on Saturday, Tennessee and California, both of whom pulled outright upsets at the expense of South Carolina and Arizona respectively. Then on Sunday, I had Temple over SMU. The Owls weren't alone that day as we also saw Oregon State down USC and Virginia Tech cover against North Carolina. Tonight sees this opportunity present itself again for us as Wisconsin hosts #19 Indiana. With the Hoosiers riding a 12-game win streak, but having lost 13 straight times in Madison, something will have to give here. I think I've made it clear which way I'm going. Take the points.

Indiana has done a fine job of avoiding the Big 10 heavyweights so far as they have not played a single game against Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland or Purdue.  They do own a win over tonight's opponent, but that was by just a single point in Bloomington. Given the final score there (Hoosiers were favored by 7.5), I'm surprised that no real adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers here. Granted, IU has produced some really impressive margins of victory lately w/ three of their last four wins coming by at least 25 points. But those wins all came at home and against the bottom of the league. This is a team that has shot the ball remarkably well this season (52.3 FG%!), the last two games in particular.  It will be difficult to maintain that. 

Wisconsin is off a good week themselves, one that saw them upset Michigan State, then go to Penn State and win 66-60 as 2.5-pt chalk. Something to keep in mind is that the Badgers did hold Indiana to just 59 points, on the road, earlier this season. A similar effort tonight should lead to the same result at the betting window. This was a team due for a turnaround post Bo Ryan (legendary coach retired mid-season) as they have suffered seven losses by six points or fewer, five of them by a combined nine points. Eight of their 13 straight home wins over Indiana have come by double digits. It used to be unheard of to find the Badgers catching points at the Kohl Center, but shockingly this will be the fourth time it's happened so far in conference play this year! The previous three saw one outright upset (Michigan St), one push (Maryland) and an ATS loss by a single point (Purdue).  8* Wisconsin

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET):  Visiting Ball State comes in off one of the more controversial victories of the season, an 88-87 double overtime decision at Eastern Michigan where MAC officials essentially "gifted" them the game thanks to not one, but two no-calls that were pretty flagrant (note: two of the officials from that game have been suspended). Not only was BSU not whistled for a foul (when it appeared that they were intentionally trying to commit one), but after a steal, a player clearly traveled before dishing the ball for the GW 3-pointer. Comeuppance for the Cardinals will come tonight, however, in the form of a trip to Buffalo, who is looking to bounce back from an ugly result its last time out. Lay the short number.

Buffalo is back home here after being taken to the woodshed Saturday in Kalamazoo by Western Michigan. The final score there was 91-71 in what was Buffalo's fourth time playing on the road in the last five games. That game was essentially "over before it started" w/ WMU racing out to a 17-2 lead and they would go on to shoot 51 percent from the field, including 13 of 21 from three-point range.  You won't find too many teams that have played only eight of 19 games at home this season, but Buffalo is in that boat. They're back on the road for two more, starting Saturday with a visit to Toledo. So the Bulls need to regroup tonight and thankfully the numbers back them up as they are averaging 83.6 points per game here for the season. They've also won all five games that they've been favored in this year, going 3-1 ATS. 

Ball State is 4-2 straight up to start conference play. That's pretty shocking considering the previous two seasons saw them go just 4-34 SU vs. the rest of the MAC. Also, during that same time, they were 0-31 SU on the road, regardless if it was a conference game or not! This year has brought improvement in Muncie, but the Cardinals are still only 9-48 SU their L57 tries as an underdog and the likelihood of them pulling off B2B road wins is quite small from where I sit. This is a team that has five wins by three points or less this year, one of them against Alabama A&M and another over Miami (OH). Their last two wins have been by a combined three points. They have not played a single team from a "Power Conference" all year.  Meanwhile, Buffalo had won two straight by double digits before taking that bad loss at Western Michigan. They've also beaten Ball State five of the last six times they've played. 10* Buffalo

8* Kansas (9:00 ET):  All of a sudden, everyone seems back on the Iowa State bandwagon again. The Cyclones have won three straight, one of them against then #1 Oklahoma exactly one week ago here in Ames.  They followed that up by going to TCU and picking up a tough road win as nine-point favorites, 73-60.  But despite an amazing 25-4 ATS record when laying three or less at home, I do not see ISU beating its second top three opponent in less than a week's time. Kansas responded from a bad loss to Oklahoma State on Tuesday by rallying back to beat Texas in Lawrence on Saturday. Bill Self's team has dropped B2B road games, but I think they're a steal here as the underdog.  Take the points.

Kansas has failed to cover four in a row. But this will be the first time all season that they have been an underdog. Even after factoring in the home court advantage for ISU, I do not believe they deserve to be favored here.  It was just two weeks ago that everyone was jumping off the Cyclones' bandwagon as they'd lost three of four (admittedly all by five points or less). They've yet to be beaten badly in a game this year, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and call for their biggest margin of defeat all season.  Defensively, they have their issues, like when they gave up 94 points in B2B losses to Baylor and Texas earlier this year.

When down 35-30 at the half to Texas on Saturday, one could have made the case than Kansas really hadn't played all that well going on 3.5 games at that point. But things sure changed in the second half vs. the Longhorns, whom they outscored 46-32 and I expect there to be a bit of a carryover effect here. KU really hasn't shot the ball well over its last six games, but I expect that to change here.  Meanwhile, I don't see Iowa State duplicating its 54% percent shooting from the last game.  It's not often that I'll go with the road team in College Hoops, but when a better team is getting points, I'll make an exception.  8* Kansas

10* Under Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET):  Memphis comes into this one riding quite the Over streak, seven straight games in fact, but I look for that to come to an end here. Orlando pays a visit and while they're off a 120-116 loss to Charlotte, that's a misleading final as the game went into overtime after the Magic allowed 30 points in the fourth quarter. The Grizzlies have topped 100 pts in five consecutive games, always in the 101 to 103 point range, but consider that this is a team that averages only 96.5 points per game for the year. Their defensive numbers are also slightly up over the same time as well. So too are Orlando's, almost due entirely to the overtime loss their last time out. This should be a low-scoring game. Take the Under.

The Magic had actually scored fewer than 90 points five times in seven games prior to falling in OT vs. Charlotte. This is a team that averages only 96.1 PPG at home. In terms of offensive efficiency, we're talking two of the bottom six teams in the league here (Memphis 25th, Orlando 26th).  They also each rank in the bottom 10 in terms of pace of play (Memphis 27th), so the total number of possessions in this game should be somewhat limited. Assuming the Grizzlies are unable to maintain their recent hot shooting (47.9% last 5 games), their scoring would naturally drop. They are also likely to improve defensively from the last game when they allowed Minnesota to shoot 50% from the floor in an outright loss as 3.5-pt favorites.

The Under is 64-37 in all Magic road games the L3 seasons. Also, it is 8-2 after they allow 105+ points their previous game and 7-1 after scoring 105+. Again, keep in mind that the last game went into overtime.  As for Memphis' loss to Minnesota, they really hurt themselves by fouling so much as they sent the T'wolves to the free throw line 36 times where they coverted 33 of those opportunities. I would not expect Orlando to benefit from something like that here as they average only 18 attempts from the charity stripe per game. The Grizzlies' Over streak comes to an end tonight.  10* Under Magic/Grizzlies

10* Brooklyn (3:30 ET):  Certainly, the Nets are not an "attractive" buy right now, but getting this many points, at home, they are a good value. Any time you have a team that's dropped 10 of 11 games - straight up and against the spread, mind you - like they have, it's a tough sell. But the good news is that the last time we saw them on a five-game losing streak, they won outright, here at home, against the Knicks. Usually, when a team makes a mid-season coaching change, you see SOME sort of improvement over the short-term. That clearly hasn't happened with this group and because of that we are now able to grab what is a TON of points here at home. Oklahoma City is just 5-13 ATS on the road this year. Take the points.

Six days ago, the Nets were in Toronto and played the red-hot Raptors rather tough - for three quarters. Up by three, things then fell apart over the final 12 minutes (outscored 31-16) and for many that final score was no better than a push. Returning home, things have only continued to get worse for Brooklyn. They were the wrong team at the wrong time Wednesday vs. Cleveland (who was coming off a humiliating loss to Golden State) and then Friday's game vs. Utah saw a crowd far below capacity due to the weather (only about 5,000 in attendance). The Nets played like they wanted to go home after halftime, getting outscored 37-17 in the third quarter.  As bad as things have been here, I just have to imagine that the team is due to play well, at least once.

Oklahoma City ended up having to hold on after blowing a 17-point lead Friday night in Dallas. It was their seventh straight win. Yet, outside of Durant and Westbrook, this isn't a great team and they remain one of the worst bets in the league at 18-26-1 ATS overall. Steven Adams (sprained right elbow) won't play here.  Consider that back in November, the Thunder failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites against the Nets.  Now, here in Brooklyn, they're being asked to lay more points. Hopefully, the weather cooperates and we get this game in because I think the home side is a great value plus the points.  10* Brooklyn

10* Under Celtics/76ers (7:05 ET): Philadelphia, believe it or not, has covered five straight games. Two of those they actually won straight up, including their first victory over an Eastern Conference opponent this season, 96-87 against Orlando back on Wednesday. The key to this stretch has been a somewhat dramatic uptick in offense. Keep in mind that this Sixers team is last in the league in scoring at 94.3 points per game. During this five-game ATS win streak of theirs, they have averaged 103.8 points per game.  I would anticipate regression to the mean taking place sooner rather than later and with Boston's recent games all being higher scoring than usual (5 straight Overs), this seems like a natural spot.  Take the Under.

Scoring in Celtics games has really been exceeding expectations of late. They have both scored and allowed 100+ points in five straight games. Those five games have averaged a whopping 224.4 points per game.  One of those did go to overtime, but still we're talking about an overall increase of 9.8 points per game during that time on offense and eight more points per game allowed than per usual. I can't see these kind of increases continuing. Note that the O/U line here is much higher than it was for either of previous two matchups this year (198, 201.5). The last matchup resulted in an 84-80 final, so I'm really quite surprised at how high the number is here.

This game was supposed to be played yesterday, but got postponed due to weather.  I anticipate the delay having an adverse affect on both times and thus the result will be a somewhat sluggish affair.  The Sixers win on Wednesday actually snapped a streak of them going over 100 points at three games, but consider that prior to that they'd topped 100 in only 11 games all year. Again, I feel it's almost a lock that we'll see them regress from recent offensive performances here.  The same applies to Boston, who has scored 100+ points in seven straight games. That's their longest such stretch of this season. Similarly, they've allowed 100+ in eight of nine games.  There's been no other such stretch for them this season. A clear case of regression to the mean here. 10* Under Celtics/76ers

8* Temple (12:00 ET):  This game was supposed to be played yesterday, but because of the terrible weather on the East Coast, got pushed back a day. Sounds to me like the perfect time to play against still-unbeaten SMU, who is on the road and due to drop a game. The fact that the Mustangs are the nation's lone remaining unbeaten is somewhat ironic considering they are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to academic sanctions. It's also somewhat miraculous due to the fact the team is down to seven scholarship players after Keith Frazier, Jr (who was at the heart of the academic scandal) opted to transfer. The Ponies were very lucky to escape with their unblemished record intact Tuesday vs. Houston after trailing much of the way (did not cover).  Take the points here.

Temple has been quite formidable as an underdog all season, going 6-2 ATS in that role with three outright upsets. Though as a favorite of 10 pts, they had little issue w/ cross-town rival LaSalle on Wednesday, winning 62-49. That marked the Owls' fifth consecutive cover. Three of the previous four had come as underdogs, including outright wins over UConn and Cincinnati. They've actually beaten the Bearcats outright twice. The team's only bad game in conference play came against Houston, ironically enough, but other than that they are 5-0 ATS vs. the rest of the American.  This will be their third straight game in Philly, so they clearly should be less affected by the postponement than their visitors from Texas.

SMU trailed Houston for nearly the entirety of the first half on Tuesday and led for only eight minutes of game time.  Keep in mind that was a home game. This will be the Mustangs third time on the road in the last four games and that can really catch up w/ a team, especially one like this that's so short-handed. This will be a triple revenge spot for Temple, who lost all three meetings with SMU last year due in large part to woeful three-point shooting. They finished the three games just 18 of 71 from behind the arc. They haven't been much better from distance this year, but when they hosted SMU last year, it still was only a five-point loss.  SMU clearly should be on upset alert here.  8* Temple

10* Chicago (8:35 ET):  There's going to be a lot of pressure on Cleveland here after the decision to fire David Blatt and I just think double digits is too much to lay, even if I do think Chicago is a tad bit overrated. The Bulls lost last night, 110-101 in Boston, but I say no shame there as the Celtics are a pretty good team.  Obviously, the Cavs are the class of the Eastern Conference, but still they're outscoring teams by less than six points per game this season and this looks like a clear overlay. LeBron and company are just 15-20 ATS when favored and lost to the Bulls (as four-point underdogs) on Opening Night. Having dropped six of eight overall (1-7 ATS), Chicago will be just as desperate tonight.  Take the points.

The humiliating 34-point home loss to Golden State earlier this year (I took the Warriors!) likely "sealed" Blatt's fate to the point that not even B2B double digit wins over Brooklyn and the Clippers could save him. New HC Tyronn Lue has never served in this capacity before and I'm interested to see how he performs. This is a high-pressure situation as no team in league history has ever made a coaching change with a record this good. Consider that going back to LY's Eastern Conference Semifinal, four of the last five meetings between Cleveland and Chicago have been decided by five points or less. 

Chicago was also recently crushed by Golden State at home (again, I was on the Warriors), losing by 31. They couldn't "hit water from a boat" in that one, going a horrific 1 for 20 from three-point range. They followed that up by going 3 for 13 from behind the arc against Boston last night and turning the ball over 20 times.  The good news here is that I just don't think they are capable of playing any worse. Also, there's been a "Derrick Rose sighting" as the former league MVP has averaged 25.3 points the L3 games.  Defense has been an issue of late, but I expect the Bulls to keep this one closer than expected as the Cavs likely come out tight.  10* Chicago