10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): Little Rock and UNC Greensboro were both good teams last year. Little Rock went 21-10 SU and were regular season champs in the Sun Belt. (Conference Tournament was never played). UNC Greensboro won 23 games in 2019-20, finishing third in the always tough SoCon. The Spartans would not have made the NCAA Tournament though as they were upset in the 1st round of the conference tournament by Chattanooga. 

Arkansas Little Rock has already played a game this season while UNC Greensboro has not. Little Rock’s first game here in Louisville was far too close for comfort if you’re a Trojans fan as they could only beat a bad Prairie View A&M team 71-66 despite being 14-point favorites. Had they not enjoyed a massive edge at the free throw line (+25 in attempts, +19 in makes), they very well could have lost the game outright. The Trojans trailed at the half and let Prairie View A&M shoot nearly 50% for the game. That’s not a good sign when getting set to face a much superior team tonight. 

UNC Greensboro actually failed to cover the spread in its final five games last year. That has the Spartans undervalued coming into this 2020-21 season. This was a good defensive team last season as it held opposing teams to just 63.1 PPG. They return 11 players and have won 103 games the last four years (20+ wins every season). "I think this may be the deepest team I've ever coached," said HC Wes Miller. This looks like one of the better mid-majors in the country, so lay the short number. 10* UNC Greensboro

10* Indiana (8:00 ET): The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU in all-time meetings with Tennessee Tech, though the last one took place back in 2017. It was an 87-59 win here in Bloomington. Tennessee Tech did not have a good season last year as they finished with a 9-22 SU record. What’s interesting is that four of those wins came in their final seven games. They closed on a 6-1 ATS stretch and were 4-0 ATS L4. Despite that, they failed to even qualify for the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. 

I wouldn’t put much stock in that finish to last season for Tennessee Tech. At one point, their record was just 5-19 SU. Will the Golden Eagles be more competitive this season? Ultimately, yes. But not here against a “blue blood” program. Indiana was 20-12 SU last season and while they do lose some depth, LY’s leading scorer Trayce Jackson-Davis does return. The Hoosiers should definitely be back in the NCAA Tournament in March. They received votes in the initial Top 25 and certainly deserved consideration to be in that first poll. 

The last few seasons have seen IU be a really strong home team. They’ve won 30 of the last 40 games here at Assembly Hall and are 15-0 SU when favored by 12.5 or more. Of course, winning straight up is not the concern here for the Hoosiers. Given that they averaged 77.2 PPG at home last season and Tennessee Tech averaged only 58.4 while going 3-14 SU away from home, I can say with full confidence that you should lay the points in this one. The Hoosiers won their first eight non-conf games last year, all by double digits. 10* Indiana

8* Oakland (12:00 ET): This is a lot of points than Xavier is laying here. Leading scorers from last year, Tyrique Jones and Naji Marshall, are both gone. Hampton transfer Ben Stanley’s eligibility waiver was denied, so he won’t be making the expected impact. While there is some returning talent and promising newcomers, I just think that it’s too many points for a Musketeers team predicted to finish in the middle of the Big East to lay in the first game. They are just 2-9 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more.

After a hot 9-1 start to last season, Xavier really sputtered down the stretch. Their season officially ended with a 1st round loss to DePaul in the Big East Tournament. But it was dropping six of their first eight conference games when things really began to take a turn for the worse. The Musketeers did finish with a 19-13 SU record, but they were only 11-20 ATS and the season ended on a three-game losing streak. 

Oakland has a LOT of new faces to open the 2020-21 season. They have eight freshmen on the roster and five players left via the transfer portal. But while it looks like a rebuilding year for HC Greg Kampe, I’m banking on him getting the most out of his team on Wednesday. This will be his 22nd year on the bench. Though off B2B losing seasons, the Golden Grizzlies did close LY by winning six of seven before falling to Green Bay in the Horizon League Tournament. Their three-point shooting should be a lot better in 2020-21. Take the points. 8* Oakland

10* LA Lakers (9:05 ET): This is the 36th time in NBA Finals history that a team has been up 3 games to 1. The ONLY time a team facing that deficit came back and won the series was four years ago when LeBron James and Cleveland shocked Golden State. When the Finals are 3-1, the series has ended in five games over 50% of the time (18 of 35 chances) and that’s what I’m banking on here as the Lakers look to close out the Heat. It’s been a nice run for Miami, but the bottom line is that they have been behind by double digits in 6 of the last 10 games and never led in the final 20 minutes in Game 4. Lay the points.

The Heat looked to be “down and out” after losing the first two games of the series. Both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic were injured. The team trailed by as many as 32 in Game 1 and also trailed virtually the entire way in Game 2. In those first two games, Miami was ahead for only 10:44 out of a possible 96 minutes and most of that was the first quarter of Game 1. A resilient effort in Game 3, led by Jimmy Butler’s 40-point triple double, briefly cast some doubt. But that was quickly put to rest in Game 4 where the Lakers held the Heat to 96 pts on 42.7% shooting, despite Adebayo returning to the lineup. 

Miami did cover the spread in Game 4, thanks to Tyler Herro draining a 3-pointer with 1.1 seconds remaining. While it was the quintessential “back door cover,” I do recognize that the Heat were “in the money” most of the way. Still, they did again trail most of the way and that was in an “off shooting night” from the Lakers. It remains fairly obvious who the better team is here and I expect the Lakers to win their 17th NBA Championship (1st since 2010) Friday night and do so in convincing fashion. Their previous three series have all ended in five games and they’ve won every close out game by at least nine points. 10* LA Lakers

10* Under Lakers/Heat (9:05 ET): Despite all the injuries, Miamii isn’t going to roll over in this series. They took Game 3 outright, as a 9.5-point dog, by a score of 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double, which included 40 points. Such an effort places Butler in some pretty rarefied air as it was only the third 40+ point triple double in Finals history. Bam Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4 (so he could play) while Goran Dragic is still doubtful. The Lakers are 3-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs, winning all of those games by at least six points. 

If you go back to my Game 1 analysis, there was a discussion of O/U results from the Conference Finals. For those that missed that, Overs ruled the day in the two series, going a combined 9-1-1. But so far, the Under is 2-1 in this series, including my correct call for Game 1. Granted, both Unders hit by the “skin of their teeth.” Game 1 stayed Under by three while Game 3 stayed Under by half a point. But a win is a win and I like the Under to hit again in Game 4. 

Miami has trailed by double digits in six of their last eight games. So I’m still a little skeptical of their chances of tying this series back up. But it’s a lot of points they’re getting. What I’m counting on is them NOT shooting better than 50% again as they have the L2 games. If you recall, their shooting declined throughout the Eastern Conference Finals. Look for the Lakers to “tighten the screws” defensively in this one as Butler won’t be going off again like he did in the last game. The Heat will get the job done defensively as well. 10* Under Lakers/Heat

10* Miami (9:05 ET): The Heat were a trendy pick in Game 1 (+4.5) and early on things were looking great. They raced out to a 25-12 advantage with four minutes left in the 1st quarter. From that point forward though, it was a Lakers “avalanche” as the Purple & Gold seized the lead by the end of the 1Q and outscored Miami 104-73 the rest of the way. Adding injury to insult, Miami will very likely be without both Bam Adebayo (shoulder) and Goran Dragic (foot) in Game 2 (both listed as doubtful). What a way to start the Finals! 

Given the Game 1 result and the injury news, you would naturally expect the line to jump for Game 2. It has, by several points. I think it’s a “classic overreaction” that the public will fall for. While both Adebayo and Dragic are key contributors, the Heat have largely been getting it done “by committee” this postseason, which has seen them go 12-4 SU & ATS. Game 1 was just the third time they were beaten in regulation and they’ve yet to drop B2B games. They are a perfect 3-0 ATS off those previous three defeats.

Jimmy Butler (who is dealing with an ankle injury himself) and Tyler Herro are still here and can carry the load offensively. Where the Heat will need to improve is at the defensive end as they allowed the Lakers to shoot at a 56% clip in the 1st half of Game 1 and 39.5% overall from 3-point range. I do not see those numbers repeating themselves here. This marks the 1st time Miami has been trailed in a series thus far and they are 10-3 SU/8-4-1 ATS off a DD loss this season. They are being undervalued for Game 2 and you should take the points. 10* Miami

8* Under Heat/Lakers (9:05 ET): With injuries mounting, the only chance for the Heat in Game 2 is to crank up the defense. Fortunately, they are more than capable of doing just that. After getting blitzed by a red hot Lakers’ shooting spree in the 1H of Game 1, Miami did settle down on the defensive end after halftime. It was “too little, too late” though after the Lakers made 56% of their FG attempts in that first half. The game still stayed Under though and with the Lakers’ shooting projected to decline, Game 2 should as well.

In my analysis for Game 1, I pointed out the fact that the Over was a combined 9-1-1 in the two Conference Finals series. The one Under (in LAL-DEN Game 2) cashed by a single point. That clearly had an effect on the Game 1 total for this series, which I said was “too high.” Well, it opened right at the same number for Game 2. We’ve already seen it “trickle down” some (sign of sharp money?), but it’s still too high for all the reasons stated prior to Game 1. These are two solid defensive teams!

The Lakers ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency during the regular season. I said Miami wouldn’t come close to matching it’s 56.5% shooting from Game 6 vs. Boston and they didn’t even come close (42.7%). You’ll recall that the Heat’s shooting started to decline throughout the Eastern Conference Finals, prior to the close out game. Now they are dealing with numerous key injuries. The Lakers aren’t going to shoot as well in Game 2 as they did in Game 1 and in fact the Under is now 16-7 in the Lakers’ L23 games off a SU win. 8* Under Heat/Lakers

10* Under Heat/Lakers (9:05 ET): LeBron James has advanced to his 10th NBA Finals and will face one of the two franchises he previously led to a championship! Miami making it this far has definitely raised some eyebrows, but they have enjoyed an incredible postseason where they’ve only been beaten twice in regulation (both times by Boston). They’ve yet to trail in any series and are 12-3 SU/ATS in all playoff games. However, it should be pointed out they trailed by double digits in 4 of the 6 games vs. the Celtics.

The Lakers are also 12-3 SU in the playoffs, but just 8-5 ATS. Interestingly, two of their three losses have come in Game 1’s. They opened the Portland and Houston series with a loss and both times were held below 100 points. It was a different story vs. Denver in the Western Conference Finals, but the Lakers had a big edge in rest for that Game 1 and the Nuggets, quite frankly, aren’t very good defensively. That the Lakers have started slow in two of the three series is notable to me. In terms of efficiency, Miami is the strongest defensive foe LA will have faced so far in the playoffs. Watch for that “trademark” Heat zone. 

Of course, the Lakers can be quite stingy too. They ranked 3rd in the regular season in defensive efficiency. Needless to say, Miami isn’t shooting 56.5% from the field again like they did vs. Boston in Gm 6. These teams met just once in the regular season. The Lakers won 113-110 with the game easily going Over the 211.5-pt total. You’ll note this O/U line is several points higher. That may have to do with the fact the Over was nearly perfect in the two Conf Finals series (9-1-1). The time off that both teams have had, plus the Lakers propensity for some Game 1 “clunkers” has me on the Under here. This number is higher than every game in either Conf Finals.  10* Under Heat/Lakers

10* Boston (8:35 ET): After jumping out to big leads in each of the first three games, the Celtics found themselves playing from behind almost the entire time in Game 4. That was an unfortunate result on this end with Boston being my Game of the Year. Quite frankly, the Celtics should be disgusted with themselves that they aren’t at least tied with the Heat in this Eastern Conference Finals. The total points scored in this series is dead even (441-441) though four games. Now facing a “win or go home” scenario, the Celtics are the call again Friday night. 

Boston has outshot and outrebounded Miami in this series. But turnovers and second-chance opportunities have been the story as the Heat are averaging six more shot attempts per game, largely due to the fact they are forcing an average of 16 turnovers per game. In Games 2 & 4, the Heat have scored 43 points off 39 Celtics turnovers. That’s unacceptable if you are Boston. So was giving up 37 points to Tyler Herro in Game 4. But you already knew that, if you watched that game. 

Now is when I’ll remind you that Boston has been up by 14 in the 4Q of Game 1 (lost in OT), 15 in the 3Q of Game 2 (lost by 5) and then by as many as 20 in Game 3 (won). This reminds me a bit of Boston’s last series with Toronto. The four Celtics’ wins in that series were by a combined 48 points while the three losses were by a total of 11 (one coming in 2 OT and another at the buzzer). I still believe the Celtics are the better team here. Miami’s three-point shooting has gone down in every game. With the season on the line, look for Boston to take better care of the basketball tonight and improve to 12-5 ATS when off a SU loss as a favorite. (Miami just 4-9 ATS off SU win as dog). 10* Boston

10* Boston (8:35 ET): The Celtics were FINALLY able to put away the Heat in Game 3. It wasn’t easy, but they ended up prevailing 117-106 and thus covered the 3-pt spread. For Miami, the loss marked the first time this postseason that they lost a game in regulation. But don’t let that distinction fool you into thinking they’ve been anywhere close to dominant in the Eastern Conference Finals. In fact, it’s been quite the reverse. In all three games in this series, they’ve been down double-digits!

The Heat’s propensity for starting slow caused Jimmy Butler to quip “I think it gets old, playing from behind consistently.” For the record, in this series the Heat have trailed by 14 in the 4Q of Game 1 (won in OT), by 15 in the 3Q of Game 2 (won by 5) and then by as many as 20 in Game 3. While they did end up losing by 11 points, the Heat actually got within 5 in the final minute of Game 3. This reminds me a bit of Boston’s last series with Toronto. The four Celtics’ wins in that series were by a combined 48 points while the three losses were by a total of 11 (one coming in 2 OT and another at the buzzer). The Celtics were pretty clearly better than the Raptors, although it took them seven games to advance. 

I also think the Celtics are better than the Heat. They could easily be up 3-0 in this series and thus be in position for the sweep Wednesday night. They’re not, but the way this series has gone is definitely worth noting. Miami’s shooting - both overall and from three-point range, has declined with each passing game in the series. In Game 3, Boston crushed Miami in points in the paint, 60-36. It must also be pointed out that Gordon Hayward is now back and while he didn’t have the greatest statline, his presence was still key to attacking Miami’s zone defense. The Celtics are also a better defensive team than the Heat. They have yet to allow more than 106 points in regulation this entire postseason! They are also now 23-8-1 ATS their L32 playoff games when favored. 10* Boston

10* Boston (8:35 ET): There have been two teams this NBA postseason that have completely confounded me - Denver and Miami. While the Nuggets’ somewhat miraculous run seems likely to end in the Conference Finals, Miami is up 2-0 on Boston and now 10-1 SU/ATS overall in the playoffs. They are unbeaten in regulation as the only loss came in OT against Milwaukee, in Game 4 of the last round. But let’s not lose sight of the fact the Heat were trailing the Celtics by 13 points at halftime of the last game. 

Boston also led a majority of the way in Game 1. This despite shooting not shooting nearly as well as Miami did. They shot much better in Game 2 (50%) and also held the Heat in check from three-point range. Game 1 saw Miami make 44.4% of its 3PA, a number I guaranteed would go down in Game 2 and it did. So how did the Heat pull off the Game 2 comeback? It boiled down to basically one bad quarter for the Celtics as they were outscored 37-17 in the third. Speaking of “bad quarters,” Miami has had three in this series where they’ve scored less than 20 points … and yet somehow they’ve won both games! Maddening! 

Boston obviously HAS to win here, or the series would basically be over. While that doesn’t necessarily mean they WILL win, the Celtics have not dropped three in a row since the restart. Before losing Game 2, they’d been on a 6-0 ATS run off a loss dating back to August 6th. Their five playoff losses have been by a total of 19 points. 10* Boston

10* Boston (7:05 ET): Tip your cap to Miami for still being unbeaten in regulation this postseason. They are now 9-1 SU/ATS overall since the playoffs began. The only loss came in OT when they were looking to sweep Milwaukee and blew a late lead. Ironically, they needed overtime to rally and pick up the Game 1 victory over the Celtics. The Heat definitely has me “scratching my head” a bit as they are overachieving in my eyes. Game 1 marked the team’s NINTH OT win this season, easily the most in the league. I feel they’ve been quite fortunate throughout the 2019-20 campaign. 

Despite losing Game 1, I don’t think Boston should necessarily be hanging its collective head. By his own admission, Kemba Walker was “terrible” as he needed 19 shots just to get 19 points (was 1 of 9 on 3PA). It was Walker’s third straight under 20 points and 32.0% shooting. Yet the Celtics still only lost by three in overtime and actually led most of the way. They were up double digits entering the 4Q! And Miami shot much better than they did, especially from three-point range. 

This is the first time Boston has trailed in a series this postseason. They swept the 76ers in the first round, then won the first two games against Toronto. Three of the Celtics’ four losses this postseason have either come at the buzzer or in overtime. The four losses are by a total of 14 points. They pretty clearly were a better team than Toronto (despite needing seven games) and my power ratings have them as the better team here. Since August 6th, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS if they failed to cover in the previous game. Lay the short number in a pretty obvious bounce back situation. 10* Boston

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers letting this series get to a 7th game is pretty inexcusable. They have led by 16+ points in four of the six games, including each of the last two, both of which they somehow lost. The Game 6 collapse was stunning in nature as LA led by 18 nearing the midway point of the 3Q only to get blitzed the rest of the way. Denver ended up shooting a series-high 54.1% from the field, including 12 of 25 from 3-pt range, something that isn’t going to happen again here. I have no choice but to take the better team in Game 7.

The Nuggets are now 5-0 SU/ATS when facing elimination this postseason. They are trying to become the first team in the history of the NBA Playoffs to come back from two 3-1 series deficits in the same postseason as that’s what they did vs. Utah in the last round. Keep in mind that I felt this was a lucky team BEFORE the playoffs got underway as they had a league-high 9 wins by 3 pts or less during the regular season. With all the come from behind wins, I believe Denver is living on borrowed time. While perfect SU/ATS when TRAILING in a playoff series, they are just 4-12 ATS when TIED in a playoff series the L3 years.

The Clippers are 14-5 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite this season as well as 8-1 ATS off a loss by 10 or more. The large shooting discrepancy from Game 6 (Clippers shot just 41% as a team) won’t exist again tonight. While the franchise is now 0-7 SU in games when they have a chance to make the Conference Finals, this is the night that streak FINALLY comes to an end. Consider that Denver was outscored by 48 points in its first four games vs. Utah. It truly is a miracle that they are even still playing. Expect LA to get another big lead, only this time they’ll hold it. 10* LA Clippers

8* Under Nuggets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Under has cashed in eight consecutive NBA Game 7’s, including the recently completed Celtics-Raptors series. I think that game is a good “comp” for handicapping this Nuggets-Clippers Game 7 as it featured an O/U line that was significantly lower than the previous six games, five of which had already stayed Under. The Under is 4-0-2 in this series and while the previous low O/U line was 214.0 (last game), oddsmakers know what they’re doing with the total and so do I. 

Let’s not forget what happened when Denver played a Game 7 in the last round. The final score there was 80-78 against Utah. They shot 37.3% in that winner-take-all game while holding the Jazz to 38.0%. Since starting 13-1 Over in the bubble, things have taken a dramatic turn for the Nuggets in this series as it pertains to the total. As I already mentioned above, we’ve yet to see any game go Over. While five of the six games have seen more than 209.5 total pts scored, Denver isn’t going to be shooting 54.1% again from the field as they did in Game 6.

Though I do like the Clippers to win and cover Game 7, Denver’s defense does need to be respected. After four disastrous efforts to start the Jazz series, the Nuggets have allowed just 1.08 pts per possession, which would have ranked 7th in the league during the regular season. They’ve held the Clippers to just under 42.0% shooting the L3 games. But where I feel the Nuggets will specifically “cool off” in Game 7 is from behind the arc. They’ve made 46% of their 3-pt attempts in the L2 games. For the year, they’re at just 36.4%. 8* Under Nuggets/Clippers

10* Under Heat/Celtics (6:35 ET): Miami and Boston may not have been the teams you expected in the Eastern Conference Finals, but here they both are, ready to meet with the winner going on to play for a NBA Title. Miami has been incredibly impressive in the postseason, first sweeping Indiana and then needing only five games to oust top-seed Milwaukee. The Heat are 8-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs with the lone loss coming in overtime. Boston is coming off a 7-game series with Toronto, but also swept its 1st round series (vs. Philadelphia). My own personal power ratings do favor the Celtics in this series, but only by the slightest amount.

Boston’s defense has been tremendous in the first two rounds as they have not allowed more than 106 points in regulation in any game. As a result, the Under is now 11-2 in their L13 games overall. All season long, this has been a strong defensive team. I was really impressed how they held Toronto under 100 pts in regulation for five of the seven games. Though the series did go the distance, the Celtics were pretty clearly the superior team as they posted two double digit victories while two of the three losses came either at the buzzer or in double OT. 

It was a similarly impressive defensive effort from the Heat in the last round against the Bucks, who came in as the highest scoring team in the league. Miami allowed just 106.0 PPG in the five games and remember one of those went to OT. They also held Boston to 43.5% shooting, including 10 of 33 from 3-pt range, in a 112-106 win back on August 4th. If there’s one concern for the Heat, it’s that they’ve been off for a whole week. So don’t be surprised if their own 3-pt shooting “cools off” here in Game 1. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

10* Over Rockets/Lakers (8:05 ET): After their superb shooting in both Games 2 and 3, the Lakers weren’t nearly as hot from the field in Game 4. But ironically, they were probably more dominant. They built a 23-point in the 4Q and while the Rockets were able to get within 5 late, it was still a wire to wire win where the 110-110 final doesn’t tell the full story. The Lakers shot 56.6% and 55.1% in Games 2 & 3, yet only won those games by 8 and 10 respectively. They shot 48.9% in Gm 4 (still a good number) and won by a similar margin. 

The Lakers’ three-point shooting wasn’t very good Thursday (9 of 30) nor did they get to the FT line many times (16 attempts). So they are definitely capable of scoring more than they did in Game 4. What’s scary for Houston is that the Lakers may not even need improved three-point shooting to close out this series tonight. LA crushed Houston down low in the last game, outscoring them 62-24 in the paint, including 17-3 on second-chance points. They also enjoyed a 19-2 edge on fast break points. 

I also expect the Rockets’ shooting will improve in this must-win scenario. The only real positive from Game 4 is that Russell Westbrook scored 25 points after some dreadful shooting earlier in the series. Sadly though, it was James Harden’s “turn” to have an “off-night” as he went 2 for 11 from the floor and was 1 for 6 from three-point range. (By the way, LeBron James missed all 5 of his three-point attempts, so he’s also going to improve here). We only need the slightest amount of improvement in scoring from both sides to send this Over. The O/U line is at a series low-point. 10* Over Rockets/Lakers

10* Over Celtics/Raptors (9:05 ET): All things considered, the Raptors should feel pretty fortunate to be in a Game 7 with the Celtics. Their three wins in the series have been by a total of 11 points, one of them coming on a buzzer-beater (Game 3) and another (Game 6) coming in double overtime. Boston’s three wins in the series have been by a total of 43 points with two of them (Gms 1 & 5) being complete blowouts. Also, don’t forget Boston beat Toronto by 22 in a seeding game back on August 7th. Boston is the ONLY team to have beaten Toronto in the bubble and three of the wins have been by 16 points or more!

But as Game 6 showed, it would be a mistake to count the reigning NBA champs out. While they’ve struggled offensively all series, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Raptors “save their best for last” here. Game 3 is the only time in the seven games vs. Boston in the bubble that they’ve been able to shoot better than 44%. This is a team that averages 112.6 PPG for the season. You have to think they’ve got one good offensive game in them.

After six straight unders (including seeding game), these teams finally went Over in Game 6, though it took overtime to do so (game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation). Both teams shot miserably on 2-pt attempts, going an identical 25 of 54. I expect that to improve on both sides here in Game 7. The Celtics are 12-5 Over off a SU loss. The O/U line for this game is currently 14 points lower than where it was for Game 1, which is an incredible shift during the course of a series. Two of the first five games would have gone Over this number. 10* Over Celtics/Raptors

10* Houston (7:05 ET): Despite being up 2-1 in this series, apparently not all is well in “Laker-land.” The team is reportedly griping over the fact its last eight games have all started at 8:30 ET or later. This lessens the advantage of no travel they say. Regardless, what they need to be more concerned about is the fact they have shot lights out each of the L2 games and still barely beaten the Rockets both times. I don’t think that LA is going to be able to shoot 55%+ from the field again and the fact their two wins (when doing so) have both been by 10 pts or less, that has me taking the points in Game 4.

Game 1 was an easy Houston win, 112-97, as they held the Lakers to 42.2% overall shooting and 11 of 38 from three-point range. Coming off a second straight Game 1 loss (also lost Gm1 to Portland last round), the Lakers predictably stormed back with a fast start to Game 2, jumping out to a 36-20 lead after the 1Q. But by the end of the 3rd, that lead was entirely gone. Ultimately, the Lakers won 117-109, but they needed to shoot 56.6% overall to do so. Game 3 saw Houston lead most of the first half, but again the Lakers’ hot shooting was too much as they finished 55.1% for the game and won 112-102.

To put it in “plain English,” I just don’t see the Lakers shooting that well again. Normally, when a team shoots that well, they win in blowout fashion. The fact LA didn’t do that in either Games 2 and 3 should be a concern. Tonight, I think it’s Houston that will rediscover its shooting touch in a game they need to have, so they’re not facing a 3-1 series deficit. In the L6 meetings, both teams are 3-3 straight up. 10* Houston

10* Over Raptors/Celtics (6:40 ET): After five straight Overs to open this series (and seven straight Overs overall for Boston), it’s time for the Over to hit. Over the course of the series, we’ve seen the O/U line drop a total of eight points. That’s a fairly significant number, even though there has yet to be a game with more than 207 total points scored. Toronto shot horribly in Game 5 (2 for 15 to open the game) en route to being blown out. That won’t happen again though as the defending NBA Champs should rediscover the offense as they hope to stay alive.

The numbers were UGLY for the Raptors Monday night. They scored just 37 points in the first half, including an 11-point 1st quarter. Starters were outscored 94-45 for the game as the team shot only 38.8% from the field. It was the third time in the series being held below a 40.0 FG%. They are averaging only 97.2 PPG against Boston. Again though, this is a team that scored 150 in its close out game vs. Brooklyn in Rd 1. Boston isn’t Brooklyn, but the Raptors shooting will definitely improve in Game 6. 

Boston didn’t even shoot the ball that great in Game 5. Sure, they finished with an overall FG% of 49.4, but from three-point range they went just 11 of 34. Behind the arc is what has largely “made or broke” the Celtics in the series. In the two prior wins, they shot 41.5%. In the two losses, they were down closer to 25%.  You have to think we’re in line to get a game where both sides shoot the ball relatively well, especially from three. Toronto averages 112.5 PPG for the year while Boston is at 113.0. 10* Over Raptors/Celtics

10* Houston (9:05 ET): Despite falling way behind early (trailed by as many as 21 in the 2nd quarter), the Rockets erased that entire deficit in Game 1 and actually led going into the final quarter. But their usually efficient offense betrayed them over those last 12 minutes as they were held to just 17 points. I still cashed an Over bet as the Lakers finished the game at 56.6% from the field and won 117-109. But they won’t shoot that well again tonight and I’m taking the undervalued Rockets plus the points in Game 3.

Houston needs more from Russell Westbrook if they are to win this series. The All-Star was pretty bad in Game 2 as he was just 4 of 15 shooting, including 1 of 7 from behind the arc. Yet still, the Rockets led going into the 4th quarter and that’s with the Lakers shooting a ridiculous percentage for the game! It was actually tied for the most points allowed by the Rockets in regulation since the playoffs began. They’ve been a lot better defensively than we’re accustomed to seeing. 

One thing that’s evident when watching the Lakers is that beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis, this roster is very unimpressive. That All-Star duo accounted for 62 of the team’s 117 pts in Game 2 and did so on an uber-efficient 25 of 41 shooting. But that can’t happen every game. The Lakers are just 4-10 ATS in the bubble, evidence that they’ve been overvalued and sure enough my own power rankings indicate that this line should be shorter. 10* Houston

8* Under Clippers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): My view is that after all those Overs we saw in Denver games here in the bubble, it was only a matter of time before the Under made its comeback. The Over hit in 13 of the Nuggets’ first 14 games post-restart, but since then it’s been three straight Unders, including both games of this series. The Clippers are a stout defensive team and coming off an embarrassing defeat in Game 2, they should be ready to “tighten the screws” again here for Game 3. Take the Under. 

Denver has not scored more than 110 points in any of its last three games. They were held below 100 twice. Game 7 against Utah (80-78 win) was a dramatic departure from the scoring we’d seen in most Nuggets games this postseason. Then they were held to just 97 points in Game 1 by the Clippers. While the Nuggets rose back up to 100 in the Gm 2 upset, that’s a little misleading considering they scored 44 in the 1Q and shot 15 of 40 from three-point range. Clearly, a similar fast start is probably NOT going to happen tonight.

The Clippers should bounce back a bit offensively from the poor Game 2 effort, but certainly aren’t going to get back to the heights of Game 1 where they made 57.1% of all FG attempts and were 10 of 24 from behind the three-point arc. Kawhi Leonard really struggled with the Denver defense in Game 2, scoring just 13 points on 4 of 17 shooting. It was just the third time in his L32 playoff games that Leonard was held under 20 points. The Under is 39-18 the L57 meetings between these teams. 8* Under Clippers/Nuggets

10* Over Celtics/Raptors (6:35 ET): While Toronto has fought back to even this series up at two games apiece, we’ve yet to see an Over (Under is 4-0). But that’s caused a somewhat significant drop in the oddsmakers’ O/U line for Game 5 Monday. While Game 4 may have been the lowest scoring game of the series to date (just 193 total pts), there were some real bad shooting numbers that we should see improve tonight. Look for the Celtics & Raptors to “finally” go Over here in Game 5. 

When it comes to winning and losing in this series, the key for Boston has been three-point shooting. In Games 1 & 2 (both of which they won), they shot 43.6% and 39.5% from behind the arc. In Games 3 & 4 (both of which they lost), they were 31.0% and 20.0%. While we may not see them again rise to the “highs” of the first two games, the Celtics’ long-range shooting should improve tonight compared to the last two games. The Under is 9-1 their L10 games, but for the season Celtics games are averaging 119.1 PPG. 

Toronto did not shoot well from three-point range in any of the first three games of the series. But they were up at 38.6% (a little above their season average) in the Game 4 victory. So far, the Raptors have had only one game where they shot above 40% overall and you have to figure that’s going to change soon. Even with the Under being 12-4 in all of their games inside the bubble, this is the lowest O/U for any Raptors’ game yet. Same for the Celtics, who are 12-4 Over following a SU loss. 10* Over Celtics/Raptors

10* Over Rockets/Lakers (8:35 ET): I had the Under in both Games 2 and 7 of the Rockets-Thunder series, winning both times, and the Under is now 5-2 in Houston’s L7 games including 4-0 the L4. Despite that success taking Unders, I believe that tonight’s Game 2 with the Lakers is the time to go with the Over. No way the Lakers shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 1. In fact, in two games vs. Houston inside the bubble, LA has made only 13 of its 57 three-point attempts. That number HAS to improve. 

It was a 63-55 game at the half Friday night. The halftime score was pretty similar (65-56 Houston) when the teams met back on August 6th. Yet, despite the relatively high-scoring 1st halves, neither game went Over the number. The Lakers were held to just 42 second-half points in Game 1 and really seemed to “throw the towel in” late as it was an 18-point fourth quarter. Note the O/U line for Game 2 is several points lower than it was for Game 1, creating some real value in going the other direction (i.e. Over). 

The Lakers also lost Game 1 in Round 1 vs. Portland. They would go on to win the next four games including two 130+ point efforts. Houston has been better defensively of late, but I’m still a bit skeptical of them on that end of the floor. But something else I’ve noticed is the Rockets haven’t scored more than 114 points in any of the last seven games. That seems likely to change as they are averaging 117.1 PPG for the season. 10* Over Rockets/Lakers

10* Denver (9:05 ET): Classic “zig zag theory” in this one as the Nuggets are coming off a blowout loss in Game 1, but should certainly play a lot better here in Game 2. Basically one big quarter (the 2nd) was the difference Thursday night as the Clippers outscored Denver 38-20 in that 12 minute stretch. The other three quarters, LA had only a five-point edge, but it still ended up being 120-97 in the end. I don’t see the Clips shooting 57.1% from the field again nor do I see Denver only making 25% of their threes. Take the points.

The fact the Nuggets were coming off a seven-game series w/ Utah didn’t really help their cause heading into Game 1. They had just one day off in between series. The Clippers had three. Jamal Murray, who had that memorable 142 point three-game stretch against Utah (Gms 4-6), was held to 12 points in Game 1 on just 5 of 15 shooting. Perhaps that was fatigue. Whatever the reason, the good news for Game 2 is that Denver is a perfect 6-0 ATS the L2 years when trailing in a playoff series.

My own personal power rating said that the Nuggets were a bit overvalued in the series with the Jazz. It’s somewhat ironic then that those same numbers say they are being undervalued in this series. I’ve got the line at around -4/-4.5. That’s a pretty big difference. I abstained from taking the points in Game 1 due to the difference in rest (cashed the Under instead), but will “swoop in” here and do so. 10* Denver

10* Over Raptors/Celtics (6:30 ET): Toronto was less than a second away from being down 0-3 in this best of seven series, but OG Anunoby’s GW three changed all that as the Raptors took Game 3 by a score of 104-103. Still, it’s hard to shake the fact that the defending NBA Champs have had their share of trouble beating the Celtics this season. All three losses in the bubble have been at the hands of Boston and for the year, the head to head record is 2-5 SU, 1-5-1 ATS. So while we had the Raptors in Game 3 (pushed), you can understand why I’d be a bit “gun-shy” about coming back with them again here. 

Boston’s head to head success w/ Toronto isn’t the only notable trend when examining the season series. The last five meetings between the two teams have all stayed Under the total. None of the three games in this series have really been close with just 206, 201 and 207 total pts scored. But for Game 4, the O/U is the lowest it’s been all series and a far cry from the 222.5 pt number we saw when the teams met on August 7th.

Eight of the Celtics’ last nine games overall have gone Under the total. But I smell a change being in store for Saturday. Boston has shot 47.0% in two of the three games so far and was up above 40% from three-point range in the first two games. The Raptors finally had a decent shooting night in Game 3 (46.6%), but their ability to score was somewhat undone by taking only 16 free throws making just NINE. Toronto scored 150 in its close out game vs. Brooklyn last round, so they are more than capable of big offensive explosions. The Over is 12-3 the L15 times Boston has been off a SU loss. 10* Over Raptors/Celtics

10* Milwaukee (6:35 ET): In both Eastern Conference semifinal series, the top seed fell into an 0-2 hole. Yesterday we saw the Raptors pick up a much needed win over the Celtics, nailing a three at the buzzer to substantially aid their chances of survival. The top seeded Bucks hope for less “nail-biting” on Friday when they face a “must win” against Miami, who is undefeated (6-0 SU/ATS) since the playoffs began. I have to admit that I am stunned how these first two games have unfolded. Milwaukee has to win tonight. Lay the points. 

It certainly seemed as if we were headed for overtime in Game 2 Weds nights. But the Bucks foolishly “returned the favor” in fouling a jump-shooter in the closing seconds. In their instance, they fouled with no time left on the clock, allowing Jimmy Butler to sink the GW free throws. Though Milwaukee has been able to score 60+ pts in the 1H of both games, they have struggled in crunch time and only shot 43.5% overall in Game 2 (7 of 25 from 3-pt range). Another issue has been the defense allowing Miami to hit 29 of 76 three-point attempts. The Bucks were #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. 

None of the Bucks’ gaudy regular season statistics will mean much if they don’t win tonight. They are now basically hoping for a reverse of what happened to them in LY’s Eastern Conference Final against Toronto when a 2-0 lead turned into a series loss. The Bucks have lost three in a row only one time all season and that was in a four-day stretch out on the West Coast. Here in the bubble, they are 3 for 3 - SU and ATS - when off B2B losses. Those wins have all come by double digits (avg of 14 PPG). 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Nuggets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Nuggets have gone Over in 13 of 15 games here in the bubble while the Clippers are 9-3 Over their last 12, including a 150+ pt effort against Dallas in their first round series. Those who made the mistake of continuously thinking Denver was “due” for an Under (I’ve been guilty!) got a “mea culpa” of sorts in Game 7 of the Utah series Tuesday. That series deciding game was an 80-78 final and obviously stayed WAY Under. It may not be that easy tonight, but I look for Game 1 of this series to stay Under as well.

Jamal Murray’s history-making scoring stretch (142 pts in three games) came to a bit of a screeching halt in that Game 7 Tuesday. Murray scored just 17 points in that game, shot 33% overall from the floor and missed five of six 3-pt attempts. Concerning is the fact he took a knee to the thigh and appeared to be hampered afterwards. Another issue facing Murray is that Patrick Beverley seems likely to return for the Clippers tonight. Beverley, who is one of the best individual defenders in the league, missed the entirety of the Dallas series. HC Doc Rivers has all but guaranteed he will play tonight. 

Denver is a good offensive team as they rank 8th in efficiency. However, the Clippers just got done facing the #1 team in offensive efficiency and largely kept them in check. When these teams met last month, it was 124-111 Clippers. But they shot 54% from the floor, something that I don’t see happening here. This was among the highest opening O/U lines for any Denver game in the bubble. Remember they were held under 90 pts twice by Utah. At the same time, they’ve given up no more than 107 any of the L3 games. 10* Under Nuggets/Clippers

10* Toronto (6:35 ET): The Eastern Conference side of the bracket has been turned “upside down” with the top two seeds (Milwaukee, Toronto) both down 0-2 in their respective series. In the case of the Raptors, they have yet to solve the “Boston mystery” in that they are 0-3 vs. the Celtics in the bubble and 11-0 SU against everyone else. Game 2 saw the defending NBA Champs blow a double-digit lead in the 2H and lose 102-99. But I’m not prepared to “count them out” yet and will take them here in this “must-win” situation. 

Boston has won 10 of its last 11 including all six playoff games where they have held the opposition to just 99.2 PPG. They swept the Sixers in Round 1 (three of four games decided by single digits) and have subsequently held the Raptors under 100 pts in both games of this series. Throw in a 122-100 win back on August 7th and it really seems as if the Celtics have Toronto’s number. But let’s not forget how the Raptors were down 0-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals against Milwaukee last year. They would of course go on to win the NBA Finals. Such a run may not happen again in 2020, but I just can’t see them losing three straight. 

The Raptors have lost three in a row only two times this season. It makes little sense that they could look so good against “everyone else” while struggling against one particular opponent. So far, they’re shooting below 40% for the series and are 21 of 80 from three-point range. Look for improved shooting tonight in Game 3. Boston was just 42.1% from the floor in Game 2, but made 15 of its 36 three-point attempts (39.5%) with Marcus Smart in particular going “off.” Three-point shooting has been the key for the Celtics in both games, but they can’t live off that every night. 10* Toronto

10* Under Thunder/Rockets (9:05 ET): When the Rockets were up 2-0 in this series, a possible Game 7 was probably the LAST thing on their minds. The return of a healthy Russell Westbrook seemed to put the nail even further in the Thunder’s coffin, but here we are Wednesday with a Game 7. I took OKC plus the points in Game 6 and they delivered the outright win, 104-100, a tremendous bounce back from what happened in Game 5 (when I was on the Rockets).

Houston probably has a legit claim to being the better team here. All three of their wins in the series have been by double digits (combined 62 points). Oklahoma City’s three wins have been by a total of 19 points with two coming by 4 or less and the other in overtime. But, even off a loss, I’m pivoting to the total for this Game 7 matchup. We know that Game 7’s tend to be low-scoring. Well, the last two games of this series have both gone Under. This one should as well. 

The most points scored by the Thunder in regulation in any game this series was 117 in Game 4. Other than that, they have not topped 108 in regulation. Four of the six games have seen them held to 104 pts or less in regulation. I had the Under in Game 2, which was a win. The L2 games have seen OKC shoot 31.5% and 42.7% from the field. Neither team has shot better than 48.8% in any game this series. Houston has gone Under six straight times when tied in a playoff series. 10* Under Thunder/Rockets

10* Milwaukee (6:35 ET): I’ve apparently misread the Heat as they are very much for real this postseason. A first round sweep of the Pacers and a Game 1 upset of top seed Milwaukee has them a perfect 5-0 ATS. I did not think Miami was anything special as a 5-seed in this tournament. They did have a better YTD point differential than the Pacers, but not by much. The team also was a lot better at home than on the road prior to lockdown, so their success in the bubble (neutral site) is a bit surprising. The Heat’s overall won-loss record is also propped up by an extremely fortunate 8-1 mark in OT games this year. No other team had more than five overtime wins and it was easily the league’s best win % in OT. 

The Bucks were the overwhelming best team in the league prior to the shutdown. They had the best record, point differential and net efficiency by a pretty wide margin. That they lost Game 1 shouldn’t set off too many alarm bells. The same thing happened last round vs. Orlando and they stormed back to take the next four games, all by double digits. Another thing Milwaukee has going for it is a 36-15 ATS mark the L3 seasons when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Meanwhile, Miami is just 1-7 ATS this season off a SU win as an underdog. 

Game 1 saw the Bucks shoot better than the Heat and make four more three-pointers. But a big difference was foul shooting as Miami made 25 of its 27 attempts while Milwaukee made only 14 of its 26 (Giannis Antetokounmpo was the biggest offender, going 4 of 12). The Heat also made more 2-pt FG’s due to second chance opportunities. Antetokounmpo should have a bounce back game here, like he did in Game 2 vs. Orlando when he went 28-20. His teammates should help deliver a big bounce back win. 10* Milwaukee

8* Utah (8:00 ET): I came into this series believing Utah to be the better team and see no reason why I should come off that point for this deciding Game 7. Normally, handicapping a Game 7 in the NBA Playoff simply comes down to the question of “who’s at home?” But the 2020 season is anything but normal. Also not normal would be the Jazz blowing a 3-1 series lead. They have never lost a series that they led 3-1. Conversely, Denver has never won a series in which it trailed 3-1. History will NOT be made Tuesday night. 

Game 6 marked the first time in the series that the Jazz did NOT have the lead entering the 4Q. They have outscored Denver in the series by an average of 4.3 PPG. They were up 15 in the third quarter of Game 5, meaning the Nuggets were perilously close to having their season end. Something else that’s interesting is how the individual games have been priced as the series has progressed. Denver was favored in Games 1 & 2 while Utah was favored in the last four. Now the market has moved back to the Nuggets favor.

While the Jazz have been held to a series low 107 points in B2B games, Donovan Mitchell continues to do his part and will almost certainly break LeBron James’ record for most points in a playoff series. Denver’s Jamal Murray could do the same, but it’s the Nuggets’ defense that I trust less in this situation. They were just 17th in defensive efficiency coming into the series (Utah was 12th) and only 7th in the Western Conference in net efficiency rating. I thought they were the “phoniest” of the higher seeds and must play accordingly. 8* Utah

analysis soon

10* Toronto (5:35 ET): The Raptors have only lost twice in the bubble, but both times were to the Celtics and each has come in rather convincing fashion. Back in the seeding games, they were beaten 122-100. Game 1 on Sunday was every bit as bad (lost 112-94) as the defending NBA Champs have not led at any point in the two games vs. Boston and trailed by double digits at the half both times. I’m counting on a big bounce back in Game 2 though. Toronto is 13-5 SU off a loss this year, winning by nearly 7.0 PPG. 

In Game 1, the Raptors shot only 36.9% from the field and were 10 of 40 from three-point range. That’s not going to get it done. It was their worst offensive showing in the bubble, at least in terms of points scored, with the first game against Boston marking the previous low. I’m not concerned though as this is a resilient bunch that has done its own damage defensively since the restart. There have been only four games where they’ve allowed more than 110 points. Again, two were vs. Boston, but another was a game where they scored 150 points. 

There is no reason to believe the Celtics have some sort of “mastery” over the Raptors. Six players were in double figures in the Game 1 victory, but that’s as likely to be repeated as the unusually poor shooting we saw from Toronto. Remember that Gordon Hayward is still out. Earlier, I mentioned how good the Raptors have been off a SU loss this year. Well, if that loss was by double digits, they have gone 5-1 ATS the next game. I can’t see them losing two straight. 10* Toronto

8* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): The Thunder took a major “L” on Saturday, losing Game 5 by 34 points (114-80), which has them on the verge of elimination. The big story heading into the last game was the return of Russell Westbrook for Houston. Westbrook played 23 minutes and had a 7-6-7 statline, which really isn’t that impressive, but keep in mind it was his 1st game since the restart. The other story was what a HORRIBLE shooting night it turned into for Oklahoma City. They missed 39 of 46 three-pointers and finished w/ a 31.5 FG% for the game. Those numbers obviously WILL improve here in Game 6. 

Helping OKC improve offensively will be a full game of Dennis Schroeder. Schroeder was leading the team with 19 points, 18 of those coming in the second quarter, when he got ejected for a skirmish with Houston’s P.J. Tucker. While the Thunder have now suffered three double-digit losses in the series, a number of key trends indicate they’ll bounce back Monday. Chief among them is a 10-2 SU/8-3-1 ATS record when coming off a double digit loss.

The Thunder were the best ATS team in the league when the season was stopped in March. They are 27-14 ATS as underdogs this season as well as a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS when coming off a game in which they were held to 85 points or less. On the other hand, the 80 points allowed by Houston in Game 5 established a new-season low. When you think back to the fact OKC was FAVORED to win Game 1 of this series, this number looks like a great value. Classic zig-zag theory. Take the points. 8* Oklahoma City

10* Utah (8:35 ET): The Jazz missed out on their first opportunity to eliminate the Nuggets, but don’t look for them to miss a second time. They were up by as many as 15 points in the third quarter of Game 5 and it very much looked like they’d squash Denver for good. Something of real note from this series is that Utah has led going into the fourth quarter in all five games! The Nuggets have been extremely fortunate in head to head play w/ the Jazz so far this season. All four wins have been by six points or less, two of them in overtime. That good fortune (and their season) ends tonight. Lay the points.

Meanwhile, two of Utah’s wins in the series have been by 19 and 37 points. Though they started the series as a slight underdog (were getting points in Games 1 & 2), I had them ranked as the better team. They’ve been favored in each of the last three games now and while they’re just 1-2 ATS, I feel they have very much looked like the better team. Remember that the Nuggets posted only the 7th best net efficiency rating in the West during the regular season. A first round elimination is something that would not shock me in the least. 

Jamal Murray has carried Denver in this series with 154 points in five games. But what’s crazy is that Utah’s Donovan Mitchell has been even better with 188 points, just 53 shy of the NBA’s all-time record for most points scored by an individual player (LeBron James) in an entire series. The teams are a combined 0-5 ATS this season when playing on three or more days rest, so no edge there. The edge is that Utah has simply been the better team over the course of the season and has scored 38 more points than Denver in this series. 10* Utah

8* Dallas (3:35 ET): The Mavericks are facing elimination this afternoon, yet are the biggest underdogs they’ve been for any game in the series. That’s due in no small part to two things. One is they were absolutely hammered in Game 5, 154-111. The other is injuries. They are without Kristaps Porzingis while Luka Doncic is dealing with an ankle injury. Still, I disagree with the oddsmakers inflating this number so much. In many ways, this is similar to yday’s game between the Lakers and Blazers (who were w/o Damian Lillard) where the underdog ended up covering. Take the points. 

As for what happened in the last game, do not expect a repeat of that to take place today. The Clippers shot a ridiculous 63.1% for the game and were an even more ridiculous 22 of 35 from three-point range. After shooting just 29 percent in the first four games, Paul George stepped up with 35 points. There’s some obvious regression set to take place here for LA and I’m not sure the extra days off help them. They are only 1-3 ATS playing w/ 3+ days rest this season. 

The Mavs didn’t have Porzingis either of the last two games. While Game 5 was a disaster, they won Game 4. In fact, no team has been able to win B2B games in this series as the famed zig zag theory is a perfect 4-0 ATS. Doncic didn’t shoot well in the last game, but still had 22 points. Dallas has the most efficient offense in the league and will not go quietly. They are so much better than what they showed in the last game. 8* Dallas

10* Houston (6:35 ET): After largely dominating the first two games of this series, the Rockets now find themselves tied 2-2 with Thunder as this is now a best of three. But let’s look at the series. Houston’s two wins were by 15 and 13, games in which they largely led from start to finish. Oklahoma City has won in overtime (Game 3) and then a three-point game (Game 4) where they rallied back from a 15-point deficit. Now Russell Westbrook is set to return for Game 5 and in my mind that clearly makes the Rockets the better side. Lay the points.

This series has been kind to us as I had the Under in Game 2 (cashed by double digits) and then OKC in Game 3 (outright winner). With the Thunder off an upset win in overtime, I thought it best to “lay off” Game 4 as I wasn’t all that confident the Rockets would bounce back. For a while I was kicking myself, especially when they led 93-80 in the third quarter. But the Thunder then stormed back, securing their 17th win of the season when trailing entering the 4th quarter (league best).

Oklahoma City has largely overachieved this season. Just consider the comeback stat I just mentioned and also the fact they had the best ATS record in the league when the season was shut down. But I don’t see them shooting 61% again in the 1st quarter nor do I see a +30 edge in bench points, both of which we saw in Game 4. A third straight upset seems unlikely tonight as the Rockets own a pretty considerable +25 scoring differential in regulation for the series. All reports are saying that Westbrook has looked great ("explosive" is the exact word I heard). Obviously, his return has factored into this line. But if I was willing to take Houston at the previous price w/o Westbrook, I'm certainly willing to back them w/ him, only laying a few more points. The couple day break has benefited the Rockets.  10* Houston

10* Under Jazz/Nuggets (6:35 ET): By now, everyone is well aware that the Nuggets have been an Over machine here in the bubble. All but one of their games in Orlando (that being Game 3 of this series) have gone Over and many of them have gone way Over. Take Sunday for example, when they lost Game 4 by a score of 129-127. That put them down 3-1 in this series and now they are facing elimination Tuesday. With the season hanging in the balance, I do expect this to be a much better defensive effort than usual. Take the Under in what is the highest O/U line of the series to date. 

Denver has not only lost three straight to Utah, but also six of its last seven. This decline doesn’t shock me as I thought the Nuggets were overrated as a 3-seed being that they had only the 7th best net efficiency rating in the regular season among Western Conference teams. They actually started out as a favorite in this series, but things changed dramatically when they lost Game 2 by a score of 124-105, an “upset” I called (for the Jazz). The Nuggets’ only win of this series was a come from behind effort in Game 1 that went to overtime. 

Each team had a 50+ point scorer in Game 4, Jamal Murray (50) for Denver and Donovan Mitchell (51) for Utah. That’s pretty remarkable. Even more remarkable is that it was Mitchell’s second 50+ point game of the series (had 57 in Game 1)! While all signs point to the Jazz advancing tonight, there’s no way they are going to shoot as well as they did Sunday night when they sank 14 of 29 three-pointers and 57.5% of their shots overall. The Nuggets scored only 87 points in Game 3. 10* Under Jazz/Nuggets

10* Indiana (6:35 ET): I’m going to the well one more (final?) time with the Pacers, who are down 0-3 in this series, which is a hole no team in NBA history has ever come back from. Furthermore, they are 0-3 ATS against the Heat with losses coming by 12, 9 and 9 points. I’m a little perplexed here as my numbers clearly state these teams are about even, but Miami has obviously looked better through the first three games. Still this is the biggest number Indiana has gotten all series and I’m taking it.

Boston and Toronto have already swept their respective first round series and with Milwaukee advancing at the expense of Orlando considered a formality, the entire Eastern Conference side of the bracket is looking like a bit of a “wash.” But note I did take Philadelphia (facing elimination) plus the points on Sunday and they covered the spread, despite their season still ending. I expect the same level of desperation here from the Pacers, who obviously don’t want their season to end like this.

Miami enjoyed a massive advantage at the free throw line in Game 3, attempting 52 tries (made 43) while Indiana only took 28 (and made 21). That’s more than the difference in the game right there and I expect the discrepancy to be rectified here in Game 4 after Nate McMillan’s postgame comments. T.J. Warren, who was one of the top players in the seeding games (averaged more than 30 PPG) has been held to only 19 PPG in this series and I expect more from him Monday night as well. Prior to Game 2, Indiana had been 6-0 ATS off its L6 SU losses. Miami is still only 8-20 ATS off an ATS win. 10* Indiana

8* Orlando (1:35 ET): Since upsetting the Bucks in Game 1, the Magic have lost by 15 and 14 pts respectively the last two games. Both times they were blitzed early only to “rally” late to make things interesting from a pointspread perspective. I think we all expect Milwaukee to move on when this series is said and done, but in Game 4 look for Orlando to keep things a bit more interesting. Take the points. 

Orlando entered this series undermanned with no Aaron Gordon or Michael Carter-Williams. Still that didn’t prevent them from pulling the outright upset in Game 1. Since then, it’s been a combination of bad offense and bad defense. Game 2 saw the Magic make just 34.8% of their FG attempts including only 7 of 33 from three-point range. Game 3, they shot much better from behind the arc (19 of 40), but that hardly mattered as they watched the Bucks make 56.5% of their FG attempts on their way to building a 30+ lead in the 2H.

Despite being overmatched these last two games, the Magic still have yet to lose by more than 15 pts in the series. I expect them to be a lot better defensively in this game as this was one of the top five scoring defenses during the regular season. The Bucks will probably enter overconfident. Before Game 3, they had been 0-6 ATS their L6 times off a SU win. That includes 0-3 here in the bubble. 8* Orlando

8* Dallas (3:35 ET): While Luka Doncic remains a game-time decision for the Mavericks, I’m going to go ahead and take the points regardless. Were Doncic (sprained ankle) to play here in Game 3, then we’re obviously getting tremendous value. Even if he doesn’t, I still feel this is an overreaction by the oddsmakers for a matchup where my power rankings indicate there’s only a 1.5-point difference between the two teams. Doncic, as good as he is, wouldn’t be worth 7+ points in my estimation. 

All year, I’ve said the Mavs were better than their record and this is their chance to show I wasn’t lying. From a pure numbers perspective, Dallas was the third best team in the West during the regular season (behind only both LA teams) as they had the third best net efficiency rating and point differential. A league-worst 2-11 SU record in games decided by three points or less is what doomed them to the 7-seed and this matchup with the Clippers but all hope is not lost, at least not yet anyway. 

Both Dallas losses in this series have been by eight points while they won Game 2 by 13. Game 1 saw them “in the money” most of the way before fading in the final moments. In Game 3, they had to overcome the loss of Doncic, something they’ll potentially be better prepared for here. The league’s most efficient offense, with or without Doncic, should still be able to cover here. Take the points. 8* Dallas

10* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): It’s “win or go home” for the Sixers this afternoon and despite the obvious disadvantage they are at, I expect them to at the very least “compete” here, if not pull the outright upset. Two of the three losses to Boston have been by eight points and in Game 3, they actually led 94-92 with just under two minutes remaining, only to be outscored 10-0 the rest of the way. They were that close despite shooting a hideous 29.5% for the game, a percentage which should obviously rise dramatically today. Take the points. 

The loss of Ben Simmons may have “cooked” the Sixers season, but let’s not forget that Boston is now without Gordon Hayward for the foreseeable future. The Sixers have defended well in two of the three games here, holding Boston to 42.2% shooting in Game 1 and then 41.4% in Game 3. The Celtics were also 18 of 62 from three-point range in those two games. So it’s not like they’ve been shooting the lights out either. Assuming they don’t go “off” like they did in Game 2, this figures to be another low-scoring game.

The difference now is that Philly is getting more points than they have in any previous game in the series. There is a value on the team down 0-3 in the series as most are willing to write them off while already advancing Boston to the next round. The Sixers are 5-2 SU this season when faced with a three-game losing streak. They will not go quietly on Sunday. 10* Philadelphia

8* Oklahoma City (6:05 ET): Like the Pacers, the Thunder also have their proverbial “backs against the wall” on Saturday. They are down 0-2 in this series and responsible for the other loss (besides Indiana) for “zig-zag” bettors. Perhaps it's difficult to fathom now, but OKC was actually favored to win Game 1. That was a case of bad pricing, but with the public firmly OFF their bandwagon now, I’m grabbing the points with the Thunder for Game 3. Important to note that OKC has not lost more than three in a row all season. (They lost their final seeding game, FYI). 

Houston hasn’t had Russell Westbrook’s services in this series nor have they needed them. Six Rockets are averaging double figures in this series, led by James Harden’s (somewhat modest) 28.7 PPG. This is somewhat of a “best case scenario” for the Rockets being up 2-0 despite Westbrook not playing. But they did trail at halftime and after three quarters in Game 2. 

Oklahoma City had the league’s best ATS record in the regular season. They also have a history of coming up big in this spot, going 5-0 SU the last five Game 3’s where they dropped the first two games of the series. While it’s a little scary that Houston is up 2-0 despite not playing its best, the Thunder got 21 fewer points in Game 2 from Gallinari & Adams than in Game 1. They should both bounce back. 8* Oklahoma City

8* Indiana (3:35 ET): Admittedly, I’ve been on the wrong side (Indiana) in both games of this series. But I’m not ready to come off the point that I have these teams essentially evenly rated. Excluding the Boston-Philadelphia series, “zig-zag” players (taking ATS losers from the previous game) are 8-2 ATS in the NBA Playoffs. One of those two losses was obviously the Pacers in Game 2. But with their backs against the wall today (season pretty much on the line) and getting points, I’m coming back with them again.

Indiana had the same net efficiency rating as Miami coming into this series and actually rated higher on the defensive end, which is something I put a lot of stock into this time of year. The respective YTD point differentials of these two teams was pretty similar as well. It’s not as if Indiana has been blown out in either game. They’ve lost by 12 and 9 points. Game 1 saw them lose Victor Oladipo to an eye injury in the 1st quarter and still it was a one-possession game heading into the 4th. 

Not since the first game of the bubble has Indiana allowed more than 114 points. Theoretically, that should make them a live dog. Miami shot 51.4% from three-point range in Game 2, which won’t happen again today. T.J. Warren, who averaged 31.0 PPG in the seeding games on 57.4% shooting, has been held to 18.0 PPG in the first two games of this series. His numbers should improve. The Pacers aren’t dead yet. 8* Indiana

8* Orlando (1:05 ET): After “shocking the world” in Game 1 (won 122-110), the Magic predictably dropped Game 2 to the Bucks by a score of 111-96. After shooting so well in the first game, there was a dramatic dropoff in Game 2 with the Magic making only 34.8% of their total shot attempts including just 7 of 33 from three-point range. Now that Milwaukee has proven the “zig zag” theory (take ATS loser of previous game to cover) correct, this time it’s Orlando’s turn. Take the points. 

The offensive effort turned in by the Magic in Game 1 is something we are unlikely to see again. But certainly they should shoot better than they did on Thursday when they missed 25 of their first 28 FG attempts. Evan Fournier, the team’s second leading scorer, is making only 33% of his FG attempts in this series. He should improve today. There have been no issues for leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, who has averaged 33.5 points and 12.0 rebounds. 

Though not quite as efficient as the Bucks are defensively, Orlando isn’t bad at that end of the floor. In fact, they were top five in scoring defense during the regular season, holding opponents to just 108.3 PPG. MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo is shooting just 45.8% in the series and has 12 turnovers. Two days ago, we saw a Brooklyn team catching double digits and coming off a DD loss, cover wire-to-wire. Favorites have gone 8-0 ATS the L2 days in the NBA Playoffs. It’s time for the dogs to “get some back.” 8* Orlando

8* Philadelphia (6:35 ET): The Sixers are down 0-2 in the series, so that all but makes this a “must-win.” Of course, as I’ve said many times previously, “must win” doesn’t necessarily mean “will win.” But I like Philly to at least cover the spread in Game 3, something they’ve yet to do in the series. They were a lot closer in Game 1 (lost 109-101) than they were in Game 2 (lost 128-101) but I expect improved numbers across the board tonight. 

There’s been much conversation about Philly’s limited offensive abilities, especially now that they are without Ben Simmons. The team shot just 41.2% in Game 2 including 5 of 21 on three-point attempts. They obviously need to be better in Game 3 and I believe they will be. The three-point line has been huge for Boston so far in the series as they are out-scoring the Sixers 87-42 from distance. But they didn’t make a very high percentage in Game 1 and I don’t see them shooting 25 of 43 2-pt attempts again like they did in Game 2. 

The Sixers are just 3-7 ATS in the bubble with one of those covers coming in the meaningless seeding game finale. As overmatched as they’ve looked against Boston, I expect the Sixers best effort of the series to come tonight. The Celtics don’t have Gordon Hayward any longer, remember that. Philadelphia has covered five straight times when coming off a loss by 10 or more points. 8* Philadelphia

10* Under Thunder/Rockets (3:35 ET): Despite not having Russell Westrbook, Houston had no problems shutting down OKC in Game 1 of this series. It was a 123-108 win Tuesday, led by James Harden’s 37 points. The team shot 48% overall from the floor and made 20 three-pointers. They led by 21 going into the fourth quarter. It probably won’t be that easy in Game 2 as I see this being a lower-scoring affair. 

Oklahoma City was actually favored in Game 1, but that’s not the case here as they look to bounce back and even the series up. The Thunder have been one of the lower scoring teams in the bubble thus far as they’ve topped 110 points in only three games. The only time they scored more than 116 was against Washington, the worst defensive team in the bubble. The Rockets are not noted as a defensive stalwart, but they clearly did a good job in Game 1. Danilo Gallinari probably won’t be matching his career-high 29 pt effort from Game 1 either.

Betting the Under has been profitable this season when the Rockets are playing away from home. Obviously, that’ll be the case the rest of the way. The Under is 6-2 their last eight games overall and a perfect 7-0 the L7 times they’ve taken the court on exactly one day’s rest. With no Westrbook, there’s a heavy offensive burden on Harden. The Thunder are 45-19-1 Under their L65 games as an underdog. Game 1 may have just snuck Over, but Game 2 won’t. 10* Under Thunder/Rockets

10* Indiana (1:05 ET): Despite the Game 1 loss, I believe Indiana is still being undervalued in this series. My own personal power ratings indicate this matchup should be a near pick ‘em. The Pacers and Heat have similar YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings, the latter metric being dead even. Therefore, I’m not sure why the Heat are laying this many points. Also key is the Pacers’ 5th place ranking in defensive efficiency, something I highly value this time of year. Let’s try taking the points again for Game 2.

Game 1 was a back & forth affair and a one-point game heading into the 4Q. This despite Indiana losing Victor Oladipo to an eye injury early in the 1Q. That was ill-timed as Oladipo just had his minutes restriction lifted and was expected to be a big part of the Pacers’ offense in this series (along with TJ Warren). Despite losing Oladipo, the Pacers kept with Miami most of the game. That’s a good sign then if Oladipo can’t go Thursday. He’s currently listed as day to day despite the team saying there were no initial concerns.

Indiana went 6-2 SU/ATS in its seeding games while Miami was just 3-5 SU/ATS. Since the opening win over Philadelphia (127-121), the Pacers haven’t given up more than 114 points in any game. They are also 10-2 ATS this season when coming off a DD loss. Miami is just 8-15 ATS off a DD win and is 17-36 ATS in that situation the L3 seasons. We saw the “zig zag” theory come through in a pair of afternoon games yesterday. I’ll go w/ it again. 10* Indiana

8* Dallas (9:05 ET): By some metrics, the Mavericks were the third best team in the West this year. They posted the third best net efficiency rating (+4.2) and the third best point differential (+4.9 per game). Unfortunately, what determines a team’s seeding is its won-loss record. In that regard, Dallas finished 7th, earning them a tough 1st round matchup with the Clippers. The Mavs are better than their record. If it feels like I said this all before, that’s because this is all from my Game 1 analysis!

Now Game 1 didn’t work out for the Mavs. They lost 118-110 despite 42 points from Luka Doncic, the most ever by a player making his playoff debut. Clearly they were hurt by the ejection of Kristaps Porzingis early in the second half. Yet they remained within striking distance until the final minute. A 110-point effort is below the standard set by the team that had the #1 offensive efficiency during the regular season.

While Dallas is just 2-7 ATS in the bubble and the Clippers 7-2 ATS, my own personal power rankings continue to have this number closer to +2, so there’s value on the dog. Half of the Mavs’ bubble losses have been by four points or less. Another zig-zag opportunity. 8* Dallas

8* Utah (4:05 ET): I’m standing pat with my read on this series. I took the Jazz in Game 1 and that should have been an outright win. Up four, they had the ball with 1:54 remaining. That’s when Donovan Mitchell (who scored 57 points!) was called for an 8-second violation. Denver answered with a three, which followed a backcourt violation that wasn’t called. From there, the game went to overtime where the Nuggets won and covered 135-125. It was the second time in the bubble that the Nuggets beat the Jazz in overtime.

Winning close is something we’ve seen far too often from Denver. It’s how they ended up with the 3-seed in the West despite having the Conference’s 7th best net efficiency rating. Utah knows this all too well. They are now 0-4 SU vs. the Nuggets this season with Monday’s OT loss following three that came by a total of 11 points. As I said in my Game 1 analysis, “all things equal, I have Utah rated as the better team here.” 

Now the Jazz are without Mike Conley for at least one more game and Bojan Bogdanovic. But Mitchell’s 57 points in Game 1 show me he can certainly carry the scoring load. Will he match that in Game 2? Probably not. But Denver won’t shoot as well as it did from 3-point range (53.7%!) again either. The Nuggets have defensive issues as they’ve allowed 125+ points in all but two games since the restart. Furthermore, they are dealing with the absences of Will Barton and Gary Harris. Take the points. 8* Utah

8* Brooklyn (1:35 ET): We all know the Nets entered the bubble short-handed. But that didn’t stop them from going 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in the seeding games (despite being an underdog in all eight games). With so many scoring options on the sideline, Caris LeVert picked up the slack. The team scored 115+ points in every seeding game but one. For the first time in team history, the Nets scored 115 or more in six consecutive games. They beat Milwaukee and the Clippers outright while nearly keeping Portland out of the postseason mix (lost by 1 in a game where they had nothing to play for while the Blazers had to win). 

Now Game 1 against the Raptors obviously didn’t go well. The Nets fell into an early 33-point hole while holding LeVert to just 15 points. On the bright side, they didn’t roll over. At one point, Brooklyn got the margin back down to eight points. LeVert had a career-high 15 assists, continuing a positive trend that saw him average 6.7 of those per game in the seeding games. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot had a career-high 26 points. Things got out of hand again late, but that’ll happen when you fall into such an early hole. 

Playoff underdogs off a double digit loss and getting double digits from the oddsmakers in the next game are prime underdogs for the famed “zig zag” theory. Clearly, not many are giving the Nets much of a chance in this series. After all, Toronto is the defending NBA Champion and won Game 1 by 24 points. But Brooklyn is 11-8 ATS this season off a DD loss. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 9-14 ATS off a DD win this year. The big key from Game 1 was Toronto shot 50.0% from 3-pt range while Brooklyn was at just 31%. The discrepancy won’t be as severe this time around. Take the point. 8* Brooklyn

10* Indiana (4:05 ET): This is yet another Game 1 where my own personal power ratings differ greatly from the actual line. To me, this series is a pick ‘em. The Pacers and Heat have similar YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings, the latter metric being dead even. Therefore, I’m not sure why the Heat are laying this many points. Also key is the Pacers’ 5th place ranking in defensive efficiency, something I highly value this time of year. I’m definitely taking the points here in Game 1 and obviously would not be surprised at an outright upset. 

The Pacers have performed better than expected here in the bubble. They’ve gone 6-2 SU/ATS and played as well defensively as any team has. Victor Oladipo reversing his decision to ‘opt out’ probably has a lot to do with the team exceeding expectations. But make no mistake about it, TJ Warren has been the breakout star here as he had 53 pts in the opener vs. Philadelphia and shot an astounding 65.3% from the field in the first three games. Over the L7 contests, Indiana has not allowed more than 114 pts to any opponent, which includes Miami twice.

Warren vs. Miami’s Jimmy Butler seems to be the headline story for this series. Neither player suited up when these teams just played Friday. The Pacers won that game anyway 109-92. They did lose the first matchup by a similar margin (114-92), but that was one of only three victories in the bubble so far for the Heat and it was a terrible shooting night for the Pacers. Miami simply hasn’t been great away from home this year and doesn’t have a “go-to” second option for scoring behind Butler. Something else I like is the Pacers’ 10-3 ATS record playing on three days rest the L3 seasons. 10* Indiana

10* Dallas (9:00 ET): By some metrics, the Mavericks were the third best team in the West this year. They posted the third best net efficiency rating (+4.2) and the third best point differential (+4.9 per game). Unfortunately, what determines a team’s seeding is its won-loss record. In that regard, Dallas finished 7th, earning them a tough 1st round matchup with the Clippers. I’ve been through this before, but the Mavs are better than their WL record. I think they are a great value here in Game 1.

Dallas hasn’t been all that great in the bubble as they went just 3-5 SU and saw the aforementioned net efficiency/point differential go down. Interesting to note, they were favored in only two of eight games. So it’s not like oddsmakers were expecting a better showing. There were several games with blown leads though and three of the five losses were by three points or less. That’s been a problem for the Mavs all season as they are a league-worst 2-11 SU in games decided by three points or less. Fortunately, we’ve got a workable pointspread here that would negate that issue.

The Mavs have posted the league’s best offensive efficiency this year. They are one of just two teams better than the Clippers in that department. The Clips have only lost three times in the bubble, but twice they were a favorite of 9 or more. So there’s a precedent for them getting upset. I am not ready to give up on this Mavs team as my own personal power rankings indicate this number should be closer to 2 points! 10* Dallas

8* Utah (1:35 ET): The Jazz will enter this series against the Nuggets short-handed as PG Mike Conley has left the bubble for the birth of his son. Ed Davis is out too. They were already without second-leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20 PPG. But this is all about fading a Nuggets team I believe to be highly overrated. I was hoping that somehow we’d get a Nuggets-Mavericks 1st round series as that would have been Dallas’ for the taking. But Utah plus the points will have to do here.

All things equal, I’ve got the Jazz rated as the better team here. Now the loss of Conley and Bogdanovic obviously has to be accounted for. But let’s not forget that Denver has been without multiple starters the entire time in the bubble. Neither Will Barton nor Gary Harris has played a single game and their statuses are listed as questionable for Game 1. Just last week, Utah was FAVORED to beat Denver. This line seems like an overreaction to the Conley news, plain and simple.

Maybe the line also has to do with the fact Denver is 3-0 SU vs. Utah this season. But those three wins have been by a total of 11 points. The most recent, last week, saw the Nuggets win by two (134-132) in double overtime. The Jazz have a higher defensive efficiency rating than the Nuggets, which is something I really value this time of year. Denver not only gave up 125+ pts in all but two games in the bubble, they have also lost the last three games. Utah still has Donovan Mitchell to carry the load. In the meeting last week, Utah led 63-49 at halftime and somehow lost despite going 22 of 55 from three-point range while Denver was just 9 of 37. 8* Utah

10* Memphis (2:35 ET): My numbers say the Suns were better than both of these teams. However, a superior net efficiency rating (for the whole season), or even an 8-0 SU/ATS run in the bubble was good enough to get them in. So we’ve got Portland & Memphis duking it out for the right to face LeBron & the Lakers in Round 1 of the playoffs proper. Memphis needs to defeat Portland both today AND tomorrow to qualify while Portland only needs to win one of the two games. If the Blazers win Saturday, then they move on and the Grizzlies go home. 

Despite a remarkable showing from Damian Lillard the L3 games (154 points by himself!), the Blazers were still only able to defeat Philadelphia, Dallas & Brooklyn by a combined SEVEN points. Philadelphia played short-handed (no Simmons or Embiid) while the other two opponents had nothing to play for and sat starters. Still, the Blazers got a run for their money every time. Scoring is not an issue for Portland, but defense is. They’ve allowed 121 or more points in four straight games and six of eight here in the bubble. They have the 4th worst defensive efficiency in the LEAGUE this season. 

Not much has gone right for the Grizzlies in the bubble. They came in holding the 8th seed, but went just 2-6 SU and now have to win two straight days to make the playoffs. But that’s all water under the bridge now. The Grizzlies took the Blazers to overtime in the first game here in Orlando, losing 140-135 after blowing a double digit lead. They were only a three-point underdog for that game. Granted, they still had Jaren Jackson at that point, but my numbers still say this matchup is close to a ‘pick ‘em.’ Portland is overvalued in this spot. 10* Memphis

8* Milwaukee (4:05 ET): It’s all come down to this for the Grizzlies, who need a win to clinch a spot in Saturday’s play-in series. They still have a shot to move back up into 8th (meaning they’d need to win just once in the play-in series instead of twice), the spot they’d occupied going all the way back to January - that is until they lost Sunday to Boston. The Grizz are a poor 1-6 SU since the restart, have lost Jaren Jackson to injury and generally played very poorly in Orlando. Unfortunately (for them), I do not expect a win in this “must-win” game Friday. 

Now the Grizzlies have been given a bit of a “gift” in that Giannis Antetokounmpo has been suspended for head-butting Washington’s Mo Wagner. The Bucks still won that game, mind you, 126-113 as nine-point chalk. Giannis was likely to sit this game out anyway (rest) but note that if he did play, I’d have the Bucks as 12-point favorites! He’s an MVP candidate, but I’m not sure any one player is worth more than 12 pts to the spread. 

Of course, the Bucks could rest other players. But even so they scored 126 pts vs. Washington on Tuesday despite several absences. We really should not be that surprised about Memphis struggling here in the bubble. They’ve only been favored by one time. Full disclosure - we’re rooting for Phoenix to make the playoffs as our numbers say they are pretty clearly the 8th best team in the West. The Grizzlies simply have no momentum or confidence right now and probably deserve to lose this game. 8* Milwaukee 

10* Under Clippers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): I’ll try this again, despite the fact that Nuggets’ red-hot shooting didn’t subside in the last game, it actually got even hotter. They shot 58.4% from the field Monday against the Lakers, including a somewhat insane 13 of 23 on three-point attempts, yet still lost the game 124-121! There is simply no way Denver will shoot that well again here, a game which figures to have a little more “playoff-like intensity.” 

It is very likely that the Clippers will end up as the 2-seed and the Nuggets the 3-seed in the Western Conference. However, if Denver wins here, things would get interesting as it would come down to the final game. (They need to win out and have the Clippers lose out to take the 2-seed). The Clippers, who have gone Over in four straight themselves, lost 129-120 to Brooklyn on Sunday despite 39 points from Kawhi Leonard, who sat out the team’s surprising win against Portland the day prior. Sunday was Paul George’s turn to sit out. Both are expected back here. Patrick Beverley’s status is unknown, but I’m expecting better defense from the Clips tonight. 

Denver is the only team in the bubble to have gone Over in every game. I look for the streak to end tonight as they should start to see a sharp decline in shooting. I’m not as high on the Nuggets as they only have the West’s 7th best efficiency rating. It was a similar story last year when they somehow finished second in the standings. This year’s team is weaker based on efficiency and scoring differential.  10* Under Clippers/Nuggets

8* Memphis (5:05 ET): After picking up a “statement” win over Toronto (122-100!) on Friday, the Celtics were able to avoid any kind of letdown in their next game. Granted, they needed OT to defeat Orlando on Sunday 122-119 and they failed to cover as 8.5-point chalk. Still, locked in as the the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics will take that result. However, I do see motivation being an issue the rest of the way, certainly relative to their opponents for today’s game. 

While Boston’s playoff position is set, Memphis’ fate continues to hang in the balance. A 1-5 start here in Orlando has the Grizzlies hanging on by a thread to the 8-seed in the Western Conference. Three teams (Portland, Phoenix, San Antonio) are within one game of them and they still need a win just to clinch a place in Saturday’s “play-in game” (which has the potential to be a 2-game series) for the final playoff spot. A win here would take all the pressure off for the regular season finale (Thursday vs. Milwaukee). I’m taking the points. 

Save for a 121-92 win against Oklahoma City last Friday, where I had them, the Grizzlies have been struggling to find their shot here in the bubble. They lost Jaren Jackson Jr for the rest of the season and the starters had a bad collective game vs. Toronto Sunday (lost 108-99). But I can see them breaking out in this game, which Boston figures to take pretty lightly. For the Grizzlies, finishing 8th means everything as they would only need to win one play-in game (as opposed to two). Boston is 7-12 ATS off 3+ SU wins this season. 8* Memphis

10* Under Nuggets/Lakers (9:05 ET): The Lakers have first place all sewn up in the Western Conference. You can tell as they’ve lost three in row, the latest coming to Indiana (116-111) as they could not overcome T.J. Warren’s 39 points. LeBron James missed the game before that, a 113-97 loss to the Rockets. I’m not sure what to expect from LA these next two games now that they have nothing to play for.

Denver, meanwhile, is fighting for seeding. They are still 3rd after beating Utah 134-132 in double overtime Saturday. It is unlikely that they will move from that position, which is where they were entering the restart. All five Nuggets games thus far have gone Over the total, though I’ve got a bone to pick with that last one. As mentioned previously, the game went to DOUBLE overtime. But it should have been done in regulation. The Nuggets had some sloppy execution in the final 10 seconds, allowing Utah to tie it up. That cost me an Under.

Denver got Jamal Murray back for Saturday’s game, but Will Barton and Gary Harris remain out. After the bad beat w/ the Under vs. Utah, I’m doubling down here as the Lakers have shot poorly here in the bubble with four games at 42% or less from the field. At the same time, the Lakers just allowed their highest FG% so far in the bubble and should be better defensively tonight. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are just plain due for an Under. 10* Under Nuggets/Lakers

10* Philadelphia (6:35 ET): This line seems to be a complete overreaction to the Sixers losing Ben Simmons for the rest of the season. Simmons, who dislocated his kneecap in Wednesday’s win over the Wizards, is a very good player. But I never saw much chemistry between him and the Sixers’ other star, Joe Embiid. Sure enough, Philly won its first game w/o Simmons, defeating Orlando 108-101 Friday and covering the spread as 4.5-point chalk.

Portland suffered a BRUTAL loss yesterday, falling to the Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers 122-117, a game where the Blazers were bet heavily and ended up closing as favorites. Even as a 3.5-pt dog, I felt the Blazers were being a bit overvalued. Closing as a favorite, they were definitely overvalued. The same scenario exists here as my numbers would have Philadelphia favored by 3.5 points if Simmons were playing. This looks like another overreaction towards Portland. 

The Blazers are one of the teams fighting to get that last playoff spot in the Western Conference. That’s what made yesterday’s result all the more tough to swallow. Remember that this is a team that’s been outscored per 100 possessions and is playing the second game of a B2B (likely without Hassan Whiteside). The Blazers are seven games below .500 for the year and are every bit as bad on the road as the Sixers. In Philly’s win over Orlando on Friday, Al Horford stepped up big with 21 pts and 9 rebounds. Don’t be surprised if that happens again. Portland is just 3-8 SU in the 2nd game of a B2B this year. 10* Philadelphia

10* Under Wizards/Thunder (12:35 ET): The Wizards probably didn’t even need to bother showing up in the bubble here in Orlando. They faced an uphill climb to even force a play-in game and a depleted roster made those chances even slimmer. Sure enough, the remote hope of making the playoffs has already been dashed as the Wiz are 0-5 SU and eliminated from contention. They have nothing left to play for except pride at this point and I don’t expect pride to have much of an effect these next three games. 

Oklahoma City is battling for seeding in the Western Conference. They are currently tied with Utah for 5th. Obviously, with home court advantage no longer a factor, it doesn’t matter as much where the Thunder finish. But they’d still like the best possible matchup. They’re also looking to bounce back from a humiliating defeat on Friday where they lost 121-92 to Memphis. Proud to say I was on the Grizzlies in that one, which marked the second time in three games where OKC lost outright as a favorite.

These teams have combined to go 6-3 Under since the restart with the Wizards having gone Under in three straight. Of who’s left on the roster, Rui Hachimura is Washington’s leading scorer at just 13.4 PPG. The team is averaging just 105.4 PPG on 44% shooting here in Orlando. Oklahoma City is missing Dennis Schroeder right now and that has left an undue burden on Shai Gilegous-Alexander, whose shooting has suffered with more playing time (32.4% L3 games). Like Washington, the Thunder have yet to score more than 113 pts here in the bubble. They are actually shooting WORSE than the Wizards here. Under is 19-5 this season in OKC games w/ a total of 220+ pts. 10* Under Wizards/Thunder

8* Memphis (4:05 ET): To say the Grizzlies hold on the 8th place position in the Western Conference is “loosening” would be an understatement. The team is 0-4 SU since the restart (also 0-4 ATS) and probably won’t be favored in any games the rest of the way (unless opponents start resting starters). The poor record here in Orlando has resulted in the Grizzlies’ lead being whittled down to one-half game over Portland. Four other teams are within three games. Remember - all that is needed to force a play-in game is for the 9th place team to finish within four games of 8th. At this rate, the Grizzlies might not even be involved in such a play-in scenario. 

With Toronto, Boston and Milwaukee all looming on the schedule (three top teams in the East!), tonight’s game is basically a must-win for Memphis. They face an Oklahoma City team that just whipped the Lakers 105-86 as a five-point dog. The Thunder have definitely overachieved this season as is evident by the fact they have the league’s best ATS record. They held the Lakers to a dreadful shooting night on Wednesday, but let’s not forget that after a similar impressive showing vs. Utah in the first game, OKC lost their next time out (to Denver) as a favorite.

Memphis was on the wrong end of a 22-1 run against Utah Weds afternoon and that was the difference in a 124-115 final. The Grizzlies actually had a higher field goal percentage than the Jazz. Also remember that the Grizzlies first two losses in the bubble came in overtime and by two points. While 0-4 is bad, they definitely have played better than the record. They are due for a win here. Take the points. 8* Memphis

10* Dallas (6:35 ET): Tuesday marked the 1st time since the restart that Dallas won a game. They beat Sacramento 114-110 in overtime, however they also dropped to 0-3 ATS as they were 5-point favorites at the betting window. I’ve been terribly disappointed with how the Mavs have started as this was a team I earmarked to make some noise in Orlando. For what it’s worth, both of their losses were by just two points and each time they blew a double-digit lead in the game. That’s a troubling carryover from before lockdown when they had the worst record in the league in games decided by three points or fewer. 

The Clippers also have a pair of 2-pt losses on their resume. The most recent, 117-115 against Phoenix, was one that we were on Tuesday. The Clips were 9.5-pt favorites in the contest, but I said there was no way they were going to match the ridiculously hot shooting from the last game (126-103 win over New Orleans) when they set a franchise-record for three-pointers made. The loss to the Suns was also costly in the sense that PG Patrick Beverley suffered a calf injury. He’s already been ruled out for this contest. 

This could very well end up being a 1st round playoff matchup. The Clippers are seeded 2nd right now while the Mavs are 7th. Even though it's the Clippers that are off a loss, the sense of urgency is likely to be greater on the Dallas side here. Again, the Mavs easily could be 3-0 SU since the restart and probably should be. Luka Doncic was ridiculous on Tuesday with 32 pts, 20 rebounds and 12 assists. His teammates didn’t help much though as they went a combined 21 of 66 from the field, including 7 of 35 from 3-pt range. Those numbers will improve here as will the Mavs’ record in close games. They still boast the league’s top offensive efficiency rating. 10* Dallas

10* Memphis (2:30 ET): Underdogs had a strong effort yesterday, especially in the daytime where there were two huge upsets - Nets over Bucks and Suns over Clippers. The former was the largest upset the NBA has seen (in terms of pointspread) since 1993. I was on the latter. Were Memphis to defeat Utah Weds afternoon, it would obviously not be in the same realm of those aforementioned upsets. But still give us the Grizz plus the points in this one. 

Both of these teams are 0-3 ATS since the restart. The only difference is Utah did win a game straight up, their opener, 106-104 over New Orleans. But the Jazz trailed by double digits in that one. Memphis just played New Orleans, and lost, a result I was happy about since I laid points with the Pelicans. Having lost three in a row, the Grizzlies hold on 8th place in the Western Conference has gotten a lot more tenuous. They entered Tuesday just two games up on both the Spurs and Blazers. A play-in scenario is all but assured with whomever finishes ninth, but right now Memphis simply needs to worry about winning a game. 

After suffering a third straight loss, news got even worse for Memphis when it was announced yday that forward Jaren Jackson Jr is out for the season due to a knee injury. Jackson had averaged 25.3 points in the three games so far. However, let’s not forget Utah is playing without its second leading scorer - Bojan Bogdanovic - as well. Also concerning for the Jazz is that their last two opponents have shot better than 50% from the field. Memphis is more desperate here. 10* Memphis

8* Phoenix (4:05 ET): The Suns entered the restart with the worst record among remaining Western Conference teams, but have managed to go 2-0 including a come from behind win over Dallas on Sunday. Before that, they had no trouble dispatching Washington 125-112. I like them plus the points here as this line is greatly inflated due to the Clippers’ performance in their last game. Were it not for the Nets-Bucks game earlier today, this would be the highest line for any NBA game since the restart. In this case, it is unwarranted.

The Clippers set a new franchise record with 26 made threes in a 126-103 blowout of New Orleans Sunday. That broke the old mark of 24, set against Miami earlier this season. They were 16 of 24 from behind the arc in the 1st half Sunday, taking a 77-45 lead into the break. Needless to say, the Clips aren’t going to be shooting that well anytime soon. They’re actually shooting less than 43% overall in the two games so far.

Let’s also not forget the Clippers lost their first game. Yes, by only two points, and it was to the Lakers. But it was a loss nevertheless. Even with six more games to play, it’s extremely likely that the Clips are going to finish 2nd in the West. There’s a far greater sense of urgency for the Suns, who not only need to finish within 4th games of 8th place, but also need to leapfrog several teams. The Suns actually sport a better net efficiency rating than several of the teams they are competing against. Take the points. 8* Phoenix

10* Over Lakers/Jazz (9:05 ET): We’ve seen some high-scoring games so far in Orlando, but both the Lakers and Jazz are 2-0 to the Under. After squeaking out a 103-101 win over the Clippers, the Lakers were held to just 92 points in a 15-point loss to the Raptors. Utah’s first two games followed a similar script. First they came from behind to defeat New Orleans 106-104 (a game we had the Under), then they were held to 94 pts in a DD loss to OKC on Saturday. I expect both teams to bounce back offensively tonight. 

The Lakers haven’t shot well as they’ve been held below 40% from the field in both games. They were at 48.1% in the regular season, so it’s quite realistic to expect an improvement in this area moving forward. Toronto, who is excellent defensively, held the Lakers to just 35.4% and 10 of 40 from 3-pt range. LeBron James & Anthony Davis combined for only 34 pts. Obviously all of these numbers should go up tonight. 

Utah was almost as miserable vs. OKC, getting held below 40% shooting for the game. A 15-point 1Q really did them in and they never really recovered. It was the second straight game that the Jazz fell behind by double digits in the first half. They clearly miss second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20.2 PPG, but leading scorer Donovan Mitchell had just 13 pts vs. the Thunder and that number will improve tonight. This is a low total that I expect to go Over. 10* Over Lakers/Jazz

8* New Orleans (6:30 ET): The Grizzlies meet the Pelicans Monday in a KEY matchup. Both teams are 0-2 since the restart and fighting for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Memphis played yesterday, losing by two to the Spurs, which puts them at a distinct disadvantage for tonight’s matchup. They will be the first team since the restart to play on B2B days (Spurs also play later tonight). 

The Pelicans have been one of the bigger disappointments thus far. They were flat out embarrassed Saturday night by the Clippers in a 126-103 loss. They trailed at one point by as many as 42 points. Zion Williamson’s playing time been restricted, which could be the case again tonight, as the #1 overall DC has played a total of just 29 minutes. Trailing the Grizzlies by 3.5 games in the standings and needing to jump two teams (Spurs, Blazers), the importance of tonight’s game seems not lost on the Pelicans players. "This is basically a must-win game for us," said Lonzo Ball. 

It’s worth mentioning that in their first game, NO led Utah by as many as 16 pts before falling apart down the stretch. Memphis only lost by 2 pts yday, but was down by 11 in the second half. Not only is this a 2nd night of a B2B for the Grizzlies, they also played an OT game on Friday. New Orleans was 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Memphis in the regular season, averaging 132.5 PPG. Memphis has the 3rd lowest offensive efficiency rating of the 22 teams invited to Orlando. 8* New Orleans

10* Sacramento (6:05 ET): Orlando has to like its chances of finishing 7th in the East now. After a convincing 128-118 win on Friday, the Magic leapfrogged a severely depleted Nets squad in the standings and now hold a commanding 6.5 game lead over ninth place Washington. The big story for the Magic in their 1st game of the restart was the offense as they scored 111 pts through three quarters, which is more than the team averaged per game prior to lockdown. The Magic led the game by as many as 29 points.

Out West, Sacramento is in a much more precarious position when it comes to making the playoffs. They started as one of four teams within 3.5 games of 8th place Memphis. But they lost to one of the four, San Antonio, 129-120 on Friday. Even though they scored 120 points, the Kings did not shoot well from three-point range, making only 12 of 38 attempts. The Kings can ill-afford another loss Sunday or they’ll risk losing even more ground to the Memphis-San Antonio winner. At least New Orleans lost again yday.

My guess is that Orlando might be feeling a little too good about itself coming into this one. They won’t have the same sense of urgency that Sacramento will. I can’t see the Magic shooting as well as they did vs. Brooklyn, who - again - is playing with a real “skeleton” crew right now. The Kings outscored the Spurs over the final three quarters Friday and unlike Orlando should shoot better here. Take the points. 10* Sacramento

10* Under Spurs/Grizzlies (4:05 ET): This is a pretty important game in the race for the 8th spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Memphis currently holds it, but that lead is now down to 2.5 games after they lost (in overtime) to Portland on Monday. San Antonio won their first game of the restart, 129-120 against Sacramento. That leaves them three back of the Grizzlies. A win here would obviously be huge for the Spurs, but I’m not really confident they can match their shooting from Friday. 

The Spurs shot 53.3% from the field vs. Sacramento in a game they were outscored over the final three quarters.They also assisted on 32 of their 48 made baskets. The keys were DeMar DeRozan scoring 17 of his 27 in the 4Q as well as Derrick White matching a career-high w/ 26 points. The team also shot 44% from 3pt range and 22 of 27 from the FT line, Again, I don’t see those kinds of numbers being duplicated here. 

Memphis may have scored 135 pts in a losing effort Friday, but they didn’t shoot all that well. They shot 45.2% overall and missed 28 of 41 three-point attempts. But they were able to get to the FT line FIFTY times, which certainly will not repeat itself anytime soon. Among teams still playing, the Grizzlies own the third worst offensive efficiency. They are 4-0 Under the L4 times they allowed 125+ pts the previous game. 10* Under Spurs/Grizzlies

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Sixers seem to be getting a lot of love from bettors prior to the restart, but have people forgotten just how subpar this team was away from home? Their 10-24 SU road record was easily the worst among the 22 teams invited to Orlando. Therefore, I expect them to struggle more than expected. When the NBA hit the pause button on the season, the Sixers and Pacers were tied with identical 39-26 SU records. The reason that the Sixers are favored by several points is due to the uncertain status of Victor Oladipo. Even if he chooses to not play, I expect Indiana to compete on Saturday. Take the points. 

Originally, Oladipo had said he was NOT going to play in Orlando. But there was a change of heart and he suited up from the team’s scrimmages. My guess is that if he was willing to scrimmage, he’s likely to play. With Oladipo in the lineup, there’s no reason to believe the Pacers can’t beat the Sixers straight up and thus taking points is a “no brainer.” But even if he doesn’t play, Philly has proven itself untrustworthy on the road.

As an away favorite, the Sixers are just 4-10-1 ATS this season. Their .641 difference between home and road percentages was set to be the largest of any team since the league went to an 82-game schedule. I view this as an excellent shot at fading the public, who is too high on a Philadelphia team that is - at best - 4th in the Eastern Conference pecking order. If Oladipo plays, it’s a bonus. 8* Indiana

10* Under Heat/Nuggets (1:05 ET): Back in March, the Heat’s goal was very simple - secure home court advantage for a first round playoff series. Miami was 27-5 SU at American Airlines Arena while just 14-19 SU on the road. So whomever the first round opponent ended up being - likely Philadelphia or Indiana - it would have been a big edge for the Heat to have the homecourt edge. Same for Denver out West as they were 25-8 SU at home compared to just 18-14 SU on the road. Now that we’re in a “bubble” and home court advantage no longer applies, where these two teams finish in their respective conference means less. 

Still - both want the best possible first round matchups. Denver is currently 3rd in the West, but could still finish as low as 7th if things broke poorly. This is a deep team with six players averaging double figures. Leading scorer Nikola Jokic was diagnosed with COVID-19 while at home in Serbia, but is expected to be fine for the start of the season. Depth will be bolstered by the fact 7’2” Bol Bol seems ready to go. Something that may surprise you about these Nuggets is they were tied for 5th in points allowed. 

I don’t really trust either side, especially Miami, to consistently shoot the ball well away from home. When the Heat traveled to Denver back in November, they shot 36.9% and lost by 20 points (109-89). It’ll be closer here as you shouldn’t underestimate the Heat’s defense either. They own an identical defensive efficiency rating to Denver. Both teams were in a slump, shooting-wise, before things got shut down. Like I said in the analysis of the Utah-NO game, I expect scoring to go down league-wide in Orlando. 10* Under Heat/Nuggets 

10* Dallas (9:05 ET): The Mavs were better than their record prior to the season being put on pause. They were 7th in conference, with a 40-27 record, but also had the West’s 3rd best per game point differential (+6.1) by a wide margin. Something else to like about them is the fact they boasted a 21-12 SU road record. That was better than all but three teams. Bottom line: if you’re looking for a so-called “dark horse” team to make a deep run into the playoffs this summer, Dallas may be your team. 

Houston was 6th in the Conference at the time of the shutdown, just three games up on the Mavs in the loss column. As alluded to above, the Rockets +3.7 per game point differential can’t match that of the Mavs. They also weren’t as accomplished on the road, which is a big deal now that every game is being played in Orlando. The Rockets will also be closely monitoring the health of Russell Westbrook, who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier in the summer. (Westbrook is currently listed as probable as of Monday night). 

I love the Mavs’ offensive efficiency numbers. Who wouldn’t? They were tops in the league in that department and moving forward it will be interesting to see if they can maintain said efficiency. I like the Mavs and expect them to come out and make a statement in their first game. 10* Dallas

10* Under Jazz/Pelicans (6:35 ET): Utah was 4th (41-23 SU) in the Western Conference at the time of the stoppage. They’d won five of six games. Of course, it was one of their own (Rudy Gobert) largely responsible for the stoppage in the 1st place, not that things wouldn’t have been shut down anyway. Over the next eight games, the Jazz will simply be playing for seeding as they could finish as high as 2nd or as low as 7th, with somewhere “in between” the more likely result.

New Orleans is a team that has far more at stake over the next eight games as they’re simply trying to get into the playoffs. As long as they finish 9th and within 4 games of 8th, they’ve got a shot at a “play-in” scenario. Of course, all eyes are on Zion Williamson, who was away from the team for 12 days due to a family emergency and four-day quarantine. Williamson returned to the bubble and practiced both Tuesday & Wednesday, however, he’s currently listed as a “game-time decision” for the opener. 

Obviously, if Williamson were to miss this game it will have a substantial impact on the line. But even if he does play, don’t expect him to be up to his usual standard. For Utah, they’ll be without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovich and his 20.2 PPG. All three previous regular season matchups between the Jazz & Pelicans went Over, but that doesn’t matter much now due to the unusual circumstances. Whether or not Williamson plays, Under is the call as I expect both sides to be rusty. 10* Under Jazz/Pelicans

10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas (9:25 ET): Both teams have been going Over a lot recently (three straight for Vandy and five straight for Arkansas). But when facing each other, Under has been the way to go in the past. The last four head to head meetings have all stayed Under including a 75-55 Hogs’ win in Fayatteville two months ago. Look for this 1st round SEC Tournament matchup to do the same. 

Arkansas has basically been going Over in almost every game this year. Not only do they come into the SEC Tourney on five-game Over streak, the Razorbacks are 15-2 Over in conference play this season! The Vandy game was one of the two that stayed Under obviously, a 73-59 loss at Florida on 2/18 was the other. Of course, this is a team that played FOUR overtime games in the regular season (helps w/ Overs) as well. The L5 games have been far higher scoring than normal for the Hogs, averaging 164.8 PPG, which is way up from where they are at for the season (145 PPG). The recent numbers aren’t likely to hold. 

While not on campus, the SEC Tournament does take place in Nashville, giving Vanderbilt a slight boost. The Commodores finished last in the regular season though w/ only three conference wins. Two of those three came in the last eight days in upsets over Alabama and South Carolina. The Commies averaged 85 PPG in that pair of victories, which is highly unlike them as they average only 71.7 PPG for the season. They too are “due” for a downturn in scoring. They’ve shot less than 40% in conference play this season! 10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas

8* Nebraska (8:30 ET): Look, there’s no sugarcoating how badly Nebraska has been beaten up by the rest of the Big 10 this year. The Cornhuskers not only enter the Tournament as the lowest seed, but also short-handed due to the suspensions of Burke and Mack. With their last win coming all the way back on January 7th, they clearly are not long for this event. It’s a 16-game losing streak they're on right now.

But Indiana happens to be the classic “overvalued” bubble team tonight. If you believe in Joe Lunardi, the Hoosiers are currently one of the “last four in” the field of 68. They would be the 10th team representing the Big 10 in the NCAA Tournament. Because of the “must-win” nature that they face right now, bettors have jumped on IU here and driven the line up to a far higher place than it should be. I don’t see the line getting any bigger, so jump in and play now. 

Indiana has beaten Nebraska twice this year, but both wins were by single digits. The Hoosiers have a problem outside of Bloomington in that they only average 60.8 PPG. Incredibly, they did not win a single “true” road game during the regular season (0-12). Ask yourself - do you really want to lay double digits with a team like that? The Hoosiers have dropped three of their last four games and were held under 60 pts in two of the losses. 8* Nebraska

10* Arizona (5:30 ET): Is it really true that Washington was once ranked in the Top 25 this season? I swear that it is! The Huskies even opened their season by beating Baylor. They got as high as #21 in the polls before the “bottom dropped out” and that “bottom” just so happened to be “conference play.” Going into last week, UW was just 3-13 SU vs. the rest of the Pac 12 and two of those victories came back in January. Two wins last week are not enough to convince me that this team is ready to make a move in the conference tournament. 

Arizona can be prone to some truly awful shooting nights. But I believe this team is MUCH better than its 5th place regular season finish in the Pac 12 would seem to indicate. There’s a case to be made that on any given night the Wildcats are as good as any team in the league. Even though they underachieved and (like Washington) are no longer ranked, I still consider Arizona as a Top 20 team and a real “darkhorse” in the NCAA Tournament. 

This is a revenge spot for the Wildcats, who dropped the regular season finale (at home) to Washington by a score of 68-62. They went into that game as 10-pt chalk. It was one of their “bad shooting nights” as they finished just 35.1% from the field despite shooting a reasonable percentage from 3-point range. Still a top 15 team in defensive efficiency, I’ll call for the Wildcats to shoot the ball MUCH better from inside the arc here. I can’t see Washington pulling a third straight upset after going 1-10 SU its previous 11 games. 10* Arizona

10* Under Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): As far as the O/U goes in this matchup, something is going to have to give. Orlando has gone Over in an incredible 11 straight games, a sharp departure from the way most of their season has gone. The Magic have spent the balance of the year near the bottom of the league in points per game scored while simultaneously ranking near the top in PPG allowed. Conversely, you have Memphis having gone Under in their L6 games after spending so much of their season putting up big point totals. 

Consider for a moment that Orlando still ranks 28th in the league in scoring (106.2 PPG), despite the 11 straight Overs, and they are also #4 in points allowed (107.2). They had been 30-22-1 Under this season before the current run of Overs began. It’s been dramatic increases on BOTH sides of the floor recently w/ them averaging 118.2 PPG and allowing 116.8 PPG. How can this be explained? Honestly, I’m not sure! But after averaging 120.8 PPG these L11 contests, they’re bound for a “cooling off” period. It’s not as if there’s been some radical transformation in personnel. 

Memphis has been playing great defense of late, giving up an average of just 95.4 points the L5 games. Only one time during that stretch have they allowed more than 101 pts and that was to Dallas, who boasts the most efficient offensive attack in the league this season. The Grizzlies have been massive overachievers this season, winning 34 times despite being favored in only 18 games. When favored (as they are tonight), the Under has gone 12-6. 10* Under Magic/Grizzlies

10* Iona (7:00 ET): I thought Iona underachieved this season, but now they have a chance to atone for that in what looks to be a wide-open MAAC Tournament in Atlantic City. The Gaels’ regular season ended with three consecutive losses, but all were either by three points or less or in overtime. That’s almost par for the course for a team that was favored in the majority of its games this season only to end up with a losing SU record (11-16). But the irony of the three-game losing streak is it placed them in the bottom half of the tourney bracket (seeded 7th) and away from top seed Siena. In the first round, they face a Canisius team they swept in the regular season!

Canisius finished second to last in the MAAC with a 7-13 SU conference record. They are just 12-19 SU overall. While the Golden Griffins were generally pretty good as underdogs (14-5 ATS), they failed to cover at Iona (+2.5) and were then blown out in the rematch 86-65 as a 1.5-pt home favorite. They are 0-4 SU/ATS vs. Iona the L2 seasons. So while Iona obviously would have loved to avoid playing in the first round of this tournament, Canisius is definitely not a bad matchup.

Canisius did end the regular season w/ B2B wins, but they came against arguably the two weakest teams in the MAAC (Niagara, Marist) and one of those wins was by a single point. The Golden Griffins hadn’t won B2B games since mid-January prior to the current streak. They came into March having lost 11 of 13 games and BOTH wins were by 1 point! I have no unearthly idea how they were able to beat Niagara in the regular season finale as they shot below 40% overall (including 5 of 21 on 3-pt attempts) and made only 8 FT’s. Iona’s luck changes here!  10* Iona

8* Northern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Northern Kentucky came into yesterday knowing that whomever the opponent was, the Horizon League Championship Game would be an opportunity for revenge. The Norse have lost only two games since the start of February. One was a two-point loss to regular season champ Wright State. The other was a shocking 30-point loss to UIC. Surprisingly, they find themselves with the opportunity to avenge the more shocking defeat as UIC upset top seed Wright State in yesterday’s semifinal round. 

Of course, NKU also had to handle its own business in the semifinals yesterday. They did just that, beating Green Bay 80-69 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Norse weren’t necessarily dominant, but they got the job done. They went ahead for good with 9:52 left in the game and now look to make the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the last four years. They’d been regular season champs each of the past two seasons, so make no mistake about it - this has been the dominant program in the Horizon League.

When the Norse lost 73-43 (at home!) to UIC back on Feb 16th, they had to endure one of the most wretched shooting nights of the entire College Basketball season. They connected on only 22% of their total field goal attempts and were 4 of 32 from three-point range. Meanwhile, UIC shot 50% overall and was 11 of 20 from behind the arc. Needless to say, that kind of shooting discrepancy isn’t happening again here. Northern Kentucky beat UIC by 16 in the season’s first meeting and should roll in similar fashion tonight. 8* Northern Kentucky

8* Northeastern (8:30 ET): The second of the two Colonial semifinals is NOT the matchup anyone expected as the 6-seed Northeastern faces the 7-seed Elon. Elon ensured that William & Mary would not make their first ever NCAA Tourney, beating the 2-seed 68-63 as a 7-pt dog yday. In the nightcap, Northeastern upended 3-seed Towson, but what was most interesting about that quarter final battle is that the lower seeded team (N’eastern) was the betting favorite (-3.5). They won 72-62. 

Elon is actually playing its third game in as many days here, which puts them at a pretty distinct disadvantage. Before last night’s upset over William & Mary, the Phoenix had to come from behind to defeat James Madison 63-61 in the 1st round of the tourney on Saturday. JMU finished in last place in the CAA this year, so that less than impressive win made Elon’s upset yday all the more surprising. Prior to Sunday, no team seeded 5th or lower had pulled an upset in the CAA Tournament since 2011. The fact we had two teams do it is noteworthy!

Again though, Northeastern’s win on Sunday should NOT be considered an upset as they went off as the betting favorite. Now it was an upset when Elon beat N’eastern on Feb 1st 74-69. They were 7-point dogs, but playing at home and they shot a ridiculous 61.4% from the floor. This is a neutral setting (Washington D.C.) and before yday, Elon had failed to cash in seven straight neutral court games. Northeastern did win the season’s first meeting 77-68 and should win by a larger margin tonight. 8* Northeastern

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The premise of this play is pretty simple. Atlanta shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anyone. Sure, Charlotte has actually played WORSE than its 22-41 SU record when measured by point differential. But they still are better than the Hawks and have covered six straight games coming into tonight. Their last game was an outright win over Houston, 108-99 as eight-point home dogs. Four of the six games in the ATS win streak have been against teams with a .614 or better win percentage. 

Atlanta (19-46 SU) has the worst record in the Eastern Conference, so for Charlotte this is a drop in class compared to previous opponents. The Hawks have been as bad as ever recently, going 0-3 SU/ATS their L3 games including a 17-point loss at Memphis Saturday night where they shot just 33.7% from the floor. Leading scorer Trae Young has been battling the flu. 

Defensively, the Hawks are as bad as it gets. They’ve allowed 117 or more points in seven straight games and 11 of the last 12. For the season, they are 28th in defensive efficiency and dead last in points allowed. Charlotte can exploit this with Terry Rozier, who is having a career year. Atlanta’s health issues extend beyond Young battling the flu and the bottom line is this team should never be expected to win by any kind of margin. 10* Charlotte

10* Ga Southern (7:00 ET): The Sun Belt Tournament gives a tremendous amount of preferential treatment to the teams that finished at the top of the regular season standings (as more “mid-major” tourneys should). The top two teams get triple byes into the semifinals, which take place in New Orleans, and prior to that all games are at campus sites and hosted by the higher seed. Here we’ve got the #5 seed Georgia Southern hosting the #8 seed Louisiana (who had to beat Arkansas State Saturday just to get here).

Louisiana benefited from the home court advantage rule against ASU on Saturday, winning 73-66 as a 3.5-pt favorite. While five Ragin Cajuns finished in double figures, they only led by one in the final minute. Neither team shot well, though Louisiana did a much better job at converting its free throw opportunities. Important to keep in mind that the Cajuns are a below .500 team (14-18 SU) that ranks outside the top 200 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are only 3-11 SU on the road while being outscored by 11.7 PPG. Take away the games where they were a home favorite and Louisiana’s record falls to 8-18 SU and 9-14-1 ATS. 

Ga Southern comes into the Sun Belt Tourney off a 1-pt loss, which should have them plenty motivated here. The loss was at home last Tuesday, to Arkansas State, and saw them blow a 10-point lead in the final minutes. The good news is that the Eagles are 9-3 off a loss this year and 9-5-1 ATS when playing on 3+ days rest. They were 12-pt favorites when they hosted Louisiana earlier this year (won by 20), so this is a great value we’re getting. They also beat the Ragin Cajuns by 7 in Lafayette. 10* Ga Southern

10* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons lost again on Saturday, but after falling behind by as many as 22 points, they made it close and covered for me as 8.5 point underdogs against Utah. The final score was 111-105. One important thing to point out is that while it was the 10th loss in 11 games for the Pistons, seven of those have been by double digits and they’re 4-0 ATS the L4 games. Tonight finds them getting points against one of the worst teams in the league and it’s a revenge game as well. 

The Knicks have had a wild week, one that saw major changes in the front office and massive revolt by its core fanbase. After Leon Rose officially became team president, the Knicks won two straight games, one of them coming against Houston as a 10-point dog. But they’ve subsequently lost B2B games (both here at home) and are now just 2-8 SU the L10 games (not much different than the Pistons). Other than the fact Detroit is playing in the second game of a back to back and on the road, I don’t really understand why NY is the favorite here. 

Even after factoring in the home court advantage, my numbers say the Knicks should NOT be favored in this matchup. They have a -7.5 net efficiency rating while the Pistons are -3.8. Even if you want to give the Knicks a little “extra boost” for being rested, I still don’t see how you get to this number. The Knicks aren’t favored all that often and the last seven times it’s happened, the number has always been three points or less. 10* Detroit

10* Over Iowa/Illinois (7:00 ET): While these two teams are both considered safe for making the NCAA Tournament, they’re each off a loss. Obviously, you don’t want to head into your conference tournament on a losing streak. But that will be the reality for either the Hawkeyes (who lost 77-68 at home to Purdue on Tuesday) or the Fighting Illini (who lost 71-63 at Ohio State on Thursday). What I see taking place tonight in Champaign-Urbana is a high-scoring game. Take the Over. 

I have to admit that I do have some reservations about Iowa entering the NCAA Tournament. While one of the premier teams in the country at the offensive end of the floor (7th in efficiency), they are just 88th in defensive efficiency and that’s traditionally not a good sign this time of year. Of course, those kinds of numbers also seem conducive to producing lots of Overs. Despite poor shooting from both sides (around 37%), the game vs. Illinois still went Over. I look for the Hawkeyes to shoot a lot better in this game.

The winner of this game will finish 4th in the Big 10 standings and thus get the final double-bye for the tournament. So plenty is at stake in this one. Illinois held Ohio State to 37.5% shooting on Thursday but still couldn’t get the job done in Columbus. Iowa is a tougher team to defend as they shot 50% in the first meeting and made 10 three-pointers en route to a 72-65 victory. The Over is 5-2 for Illinois following an ATS loss. 10* Over Iowa/Illinois

10* Over Lakers/Clippers (3:35 ET): The Lakers are going for their second marquee win in the last three days. Friday saw them defeat Milwaukee 113-103 (potential NBA Finals preview?) right here at the Staples Center. LeBron and company have been in “full control” of the Western Conference much of the season and have opened up a 5.5 game lead over their closest competition. That “closest competition” is who they’ll be facing Sunday, the Clippers, who are on an impressive six-game win streak right now. 

The average margin of victory during the Clippers’ six game win streak is 17.0 PPG. Only one of those six wins has been by single digits. The team is 10-0 SU this season when its full roster is intact and right now is as healthy as its been all year. They just beat Houston 120-105 on Thursday, making it look easy against the Rockets’ “small ball” lineup. The Clips are 2-0 against the Lakers this season including a win on X-Mas. 

So this is a game the Lakers must take seriously. Being that it’s on National TV, you know they will. The Clippers are averaging 118.1 PPG at Staples Center this season and have scored 120 or more four times during the current win streak. They are prone to defensive lapses however as last Sunday they gave up 130 points to Philadelphia. The Lakers can score too as they are averaging over 114 PPG. While the two previous meetings this year have stayed Under, this one is going Over. 10* Over Lakers/Clippers

10* UC Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): The second place team in the Big West concludes its regular season Saturday night and couldn’t have asked for a better opponent as it’s the last place team in the conference Cal Poly. When these teams met earlier in the year, UCSB won by 18 on the road as they held the Mustangs to 28.3% shooting. Compounding problems for the underdog tonight is they’ve lost six in a row and given up at least 77 points in five of those games. This should be a very easy win for UCSB. 

This game has some major seeding implications for UCSB. The Gauchos could clinch the #2 seed in the Big West Tournament with a win, but could fall precipitously down the standings with a loss. The team they are tied for second with is Cal Northridge and they swept the regular season series from the Gauchos. But again, UCSB couldn’t have asked for a better opponent in this spot. 

It’s tough to ignore the kind of defense UCSB is playing right now. They just held Cal State Fullerton to 53 points Thursday as they held on for a two-point win. The Gauchos are allowing just 64.1 PPG this year at home where they’ve gone 12-3 SU. Incredibly, Cal Poly is 0-16 SU away from home this year and lost those games by an average of 13.2 PPG. They lost Thursday 80-73 at Long Beach State and are just 5-22 ATS the L3 seasons following a game in which they allowed 80+ points. 10* UC Santa Barbara

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons have not played well over the last month or so. They’ve lost 9 of 10 w/ the lone victory coming by two points (at Phoenix) eight days ago. But they have covered three in a row and tonight are catching the Jazz in the second night of a back to back. This being a home game is another obvious edge for the Pistons, who (predictably) are far more competitive here in the Motor City. 

Detroit has basically been in this same price range for each of those last three games. They last played on Wednesday when they lost to the Thunder 114-107 as a nine-point home dog. They dug themselves a sizable hole in the first half but were able to erase it, which impressed me. What wasn’t impressive was the Pistons defense as they allowed OKC to shoot better than 60% from the field. That won’t happen again here. March has been a good month for the Pistons as they are 25-8 ATS the L3 seasons.

Utah won in Boston last night 99-94. That’s a really impressive win and was the fourth in a row against an Eastern Conference team. But before that, they’d lost four in a row (all at home). This is their third road game in four nights and fourth in the last six nights. The situation is not on their side here. The Jazz are just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games as favorites. 10* Detroit

8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): Throughout this season, I have NOT been as high on Auburn as the pollsters. The Tigers clearly benefited from being one of the last unbeatens in the country, just like the Duquesne team I successfully faded last night, but in similar fashion (to Duquesne) there has been “sputtering” down the stretch as four of the Tigers’ six losses this season have come over the L6 games. They just got beat at home Wednesday 78-75 (as a 12-pt favorite) by Texas A&M. 

Tennessee will be honoring its senior class today, fresh off an upset at Kentucky earlier in the week. The Volunteers won 81-73 in Lexington as an 8.5-point dog, which followed a big win last weekend (here in Knoxville) against Florida. Speaking of seniors, UT’s John Fulkerson has led the way the L2 games w/ 49 points. Some other good news for the Vols is that they are 2-0 ATS this season after scoring 80+ pts the previous game. 

I think it “speaks volumes” that Tennessee is favored here, even at home. The KenPom ratings list Auburn as the 39th best team in the country and my own personal power ratings are pretty much in line with that (#33). Tennessee is holding visitors to just 58.1 PPG here in Knoxville and in addition to having a chance to defeat their former HC (Bruce Pearl), the Volunteers have a shot at avenging a 73-66 loss from earlier in the year where they blew a 17-point lead. 8* Tennessee

10* Under Magic/T’Wolves (8:05 ET): Just six days ago these teams met in Orlando and the Magic won 136-125. They haven’t won since. It’s a three-game losing streak heading into this rematch in the Twin Cities. I played against the Magic on Monday when they lost outright at home to Portland 130-107 as a seven-point favorite. That was my 10* Game of the Week. Now the Magic will be involved in this week’s top total. I can’t imagine this game will be anywhere close to as high scoring as that first meeting. 

The Over is 9-0 in Orlando’s previous nine games. That’s quite the streak for a team that has spent the balance of the season near the bottom of the league in scoring while also ranking at the top in points allowed. They still are only averaging 105.4 PPG while giving up only 107.1. They are way over those averages during this 9-game Over streak and oddsmakers have been slow to keep up. But tonight’s game figures to be the highest O/U line for any Magic game this season. 

Minnesota comes into tonight off B2B wins including a huge upset of New Orleans on Tuesday that I was on. The T’wolves shot 55.7% from the floor in that game and then 50% in Wednesday’s win here at home vs. Chicago. I don’t see them matching those numbers tonight nor do I see Orlando shooting as well as they did last Saturday against the T’wolves (54%). 10* Under Magic/T’wolves

10* New York (7:35 ET): Depending on what closing line you got, the Knicks may or may not have covered the spread in their last game. They lost 112-104 to Utah Wednesday night. The spread opened +7.5 but closed +9. Regardless of your outcome there, there’s no denying NY played well in its previous two games, clear wins over Chicago and Houston, the latter coming as a 10-point underdog. They get to stay at MSG tonight where they’ll host an OKC team that’s on a 5-game ATS losing streak.

After suffering a humiliating 47-point loss at Milwaukee on Saturday night, the Thunder lost again by double digits (109-94) to the Clippers on Tuesday. They finally got back into the win column Wednesday in Detroit where they won 114-107. But they did not cover the nine-point spread. OKC’s 5-game ATS losing streak has taken them down to 37-24-1 on the year, still a league-best, but it’s clear there’s a “market correction” taking place w/ this team right now. 

Case in point, this is just too high. While the Thunder are 21-8 ATS on the road this season, but the average spread for them in those games has been +2.5. There just haven’t been many games, save for the last one (where they failed to cover!), that they’ve been asked to lay this many points. Oddsmakers have taken notice of this team that has overperformed expectations in 2019-20. Despite being 18-11 SU on the road this year, the Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 0.2 PPG. Take the points. 10* New York

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): Other than #3 Dayton (who has completely dominated this conference), no other team from the Atlantic 10 is considered a safe bet to make the NCAA Tournament. Two teams vying for second best in the conference meet Friday and the winner could have a case for the Big Dance. Richmond is the hotter of the two, having won 8 of its last 9 games. The lone loss during that stretch was by 4 pts at St. Bonaventure. Tonight the Spiders travel to face a Duquesne team whose number they’ve really had through the years. 

Duquesne was actually one of the last remaining unbeaten teams in the country. They started out 10-0 SU but are just 11-8 since. I personally never took them very seriously, although they have played Dayton tough on two different occasions. The Dukes also just beat VCU three days ago, 80-77, but needed OT to do so in what was their third straight win by 4 points or less. Two of those have been overtime games. The Dukes have been among the most fortunate teams in the entire country this season w/ NINE wins coming by six points or less.

As alluded to above, Richmond has owned this particular A-10 rivalry. They are 22-2 SU the L24 times facing Duquesne while also going 18-6 ATS. The teams have not previously met this season. But Richmond has clearly been the more impressive team in conf play, going 13-4 SU w/ a +9.3 PPG scoring differential while Duquesne is 11-6 and only +1.5 PPG. The Spiders beat Davidson 80-63 earlier in the week and are 7-1 ATS this season after a game where they scored 80+ pts.  10* Richmond

8* Oregon (11:00 ET): Since picking up a huge overtime win at Arizona two Saturdays ago, the Ducks have played a “light schedule.” They’ve played only one time and it was a 69-54 win at Oregon State last Thursday. They’ll conclude the regular season w/ a pair of home games they definitely “should” win - this one and vs. Stanford on Saturday. Plenty is still on the line, not just for seeding purposes in the NCAA Tournament, but the Ducks are also competing for a Pac 12 regular season championship. They currently trail UCLA by one game in the win column. 

California has little to play for this week, though they’ve shown some grit recently by pulling three outright upsets in their last four games. Two were last week as they beat Colorado 76-62 (as an 8.5-pt dog) and Utah 86-79 (as a 1.5-pt dog). But both wins came in Berkeley. While they did win at Washington State the previous week, that’s the Bears’ ONLY “true” road win of the entire season (1-8 SU) and Wazzu is hardly on par with Oregon.

Two days after they went to Wazzu and won, Cal lost by 35 at Washington. Lack of offense has been a real issue for the Bears when they leave campus as they are averaging a paltry 54.8 PPG away from home. That’s a real problem for tonight as not only has Oregon won 20 straight games in Eugene, but they are averaging more than 80 PPG here this season. This one turns into a rout in a hurry. 8* Oregon

10* Houston (8:05 ET): The Rockets certainly weren’t expecting their 6-game win streak to end Monday when they visited New York. But it did as they fell 125-123 as a 10-point favorite. That’s a game they should have won. But now they turn their attention to the Clippers and ending what is the league’s current longest win streak at 5 games. I like their chances of doing so. 

Houston has beaten LA two of the three head to head meetings this year and led by five in the final minute of the one loss, which came at Staples Center on 11.22. Because they are at home, Houston should be the favorite here in our eyes. Yes, they did lose to the Knicks, but the Rockets are every bit as hot right now as the Clippers. During its six-game win streak, Houston beat Boston twice. They are not only 16-9 SU vs. .500+ teams this season, they are also 16-9 ATS in those games. 

I like what the Rockets are doing with their “small-ball lineup” right now and while they are often (rightfully) maligned for their defensive play, the Clippers have shown they can have bad defensive games as well. They just gave up 130 pts to the 76ers Sunday, the third time in less than a month they’ve allowed that many in a game. Houston is #2 in the league in both scoring (118.9 PPG) and offensive efficiency. They can certainly make the Clippers pay for a bad defensive night. 10* Houston

8* Under Boise St/UNLV (5:00 ET): This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Mountain West Tournament. Neither team had to win to get here and the winner will (likely) face top seed San Diego State in the semifinal tournament tomorrow. UNLV is the host team of this event (as per usual) and comes in hot. The Rebels have won and covered five straight games, including handing San Diego State its only loss of the regular season. But that’s not the only streak on the line today. Boise State has gone Under in eight consecutive contests.

These teams split the two regular season matchups, each winning at home. UNLV obviously has the edge here by being tournament hosts, but this is hardly a good shooting team. During their 5-0 SU/ATS run, they have made nearly 50% of their FG attempts. But that number figures to come down here. The Rebels are not a good outside shooting team (just 30.9% at home) and the two regular season games vs. Boise State saw them make only 12 of 49 attempts from behind the arc.

Boise State averages 81.1 PPG at home, but only 71.8 on the road. Good for them then that they do a great job defensively at guarding the three-point line, holding opponents below 30% there for the season. Another thing to consider here is that UNLV plays at a very slow pace. They are just 249th (per KenPom) in adjusted tempo this season. Prior to scoring 92 pts against a terrible San Jose State team in the final regular season game, the Rebels had gone Under four straight times themselves. 8* Under Boise St/UNLV

10* New York (7:35 ET): After a four-game SU/ATS losing streak, the Jazz have rebounded to win two straight, beating both Washington and Cleveland by double digits. Those are the two worst defensive teams in the league and sure enough Utah was able to score 129 and 126 pts against them. Another weak opponent is up next on the docket and that’s the “Spike Lee-less” Knicks (ha!). But the Knicks have surprisingly performed well of late, also scoring 125 pts in B2B wins, the latest coming as a 10-point dog here at home vs. Houston. 

New York had lost six straight before its two wins in a row, so their recent form isn’t all that different from the Jazz. Now, over the course of the season, the Knicks have obviously performed a whole lot worse. But a change up in the front office (new team president) certainly seemed to invigorate NY as they led by as many as 21 against the Rockets. It was a similar deal after the coaching change that took place earlier in the season. For the record, the Knicks have covered six of their last eight games against teams that have winning records.

Utah is 5th in the West w/ a 38-22 SU record. But they certainly have issues defensively as they’ve given up 113+ pts in six straight games. That obviously makes it pretty difficult to cover consistently, which is why they are just 2-5 ATS the L7 games vs. sub-.500 teams. This spread is simply too high for a Jazz team that has only been able to cover once in its last six tries as a favorite (four outright losses). 10* New York

10* Providence (6:30 ET): Providence has made an impressive run the last two weeks by going 4-0 SU and ATS. Three of those victories have been upsets as they’ve beaten Seton Hall, Georgetown (on the road) and Villanova (also on the road). This run has the Friars somewhat “solidly” in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) later this month as the current projections have them around a 9-seed. But they can’t afford any kind of letdown here in the final week of the regular season. A strong finish would cement their status. 

As a whole, the Big East is projected to do well on Selection Sunday. There could be as many as seven teams from the conference making the Big Dance. Besides Providence, Xavier is another team fighting to make the cut line. The Musketeers only played once last week and they earned a 3-pt win @ Georgetown. While they failed to cover (were -3.5!), they are still 6-2 SU and ATS the L8 games. Note, however, they needed a 3-pointer w/ 4.5 seconds remaining to beat G’town. Xavier easily could have lost that game. 

This is a rematch from a game played almost a month ago where Xavier won 64-58 as a 4-point choice. In that game, neither side shot well from 3-pt range. Providence had the lead at halftime, but could not hold. At home, the Friars seem to have the advantage though as they outscore opponents by 13.6 PPG here as opposed to a -3.0 PPG differential on the road. That’s a pretty dramatic swing there. The Friars area also 4-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss this season. 10* Providence

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): An absolutely miserable stretch for the T’wolves continued Sunday w/ a 20-pt home loss to Dallas. But remember that the Mavericks are a really good team, one that is much better than its won-loss record and is a top five team in the league by at least two key metrics (point differential, net efficiency rating). Tonight, Minnesota is on the road, but facing a team I feel is overvalued. It’s three straight ATS losses for New Orleans coming into tonight as the marketplace continues to struggle to put an accurate price on them with Zion Williamson in the lineup. 

While two of those Pelicans’ ATS losses came against the Lakers, including Sunday, the other was them failing to cover a double digit spread against Cleveland. That’s arguably the worst team in the league. While Minnesota has had a rough go and is w/o Karl Anthony-Towns, they are better than Cleveland. They’ve covered two of the last three times they’ve been a DD dog, even winning one of those outright (at Miami). Winning at Miami isn’t easy. That was the just the 4th time the Heat lost at home all season.

Minnesota missed 11 of its first 12 shots against Dallas and never recovered. They ended up shooting just 36.4% for the game. They should certainly shoot better here against a Pelicans team that gives up 116.9 PPG. New Orleans has also struggled to make outside shots recently as their best three-point shooter (J.J. Redick) is out for at least another seven games. The Pelicans still have a negative point differential on the year. Laying double digits is not a role well suited for them. 10* Minnesota

10* Baylor (9:00 ET): The last time #2 Baylor was off a SU loss, we grabbed them and cashed a winning ticket. It was last Tuesday when they crushed Kansas State 85-66 as a DD home favorite. The Bears will almost certainly have dropped in the rankings by the time tonight’s game tips off as they fell Saturday in Ft. Worth, 75-72 to TCU (were -9.5) in what was certainly their “worst” loss of the season to date. But just like last Tuesday, I expect them to bounce back in a major way here.

Baylor’s only two other losses this year were to Kansas (current #1 team in the country) and out in Washington in the second game of the season. All of a sudden, after a record 23-game win streak, the Bears have now dropped 2 of 3. But as they showed against Kansas State, this team certainly remains formidable at home. They are 13-1 SU in Waco, winning by an average margin of 14.3 PPG. Getting them as a single digit favorite is a real bargain tonight.

Now Texas Tech presents a far greater challenge than Kansas State did, but the Red Raiders also aren’t Kansas (the only visitor to win in Waco this season). The Red Raiders are off a bad week where they lost to both Texas and Oklahoma (favored in both games) and that will certainly drop them out of the Top 25 when the new rankings are released later today. Back in January, Baylor went to Lubbock and won 57-52 as a 3.5-pt underdog. Following two more sub-60 pt efforts LW, I can’t see TT scoring many points tonight and that’s obviously problematic. 10* Baylor

10* Portland (7:05 ET): Playing in the Western Conference (as opposed to the East) can certainly have its disadvantages. Just look at Portland, who is nine games under .500 (admittedly not good!), yet buried in 12th place. Orlando, who is six games below .500, would be a playoff team in the East as they are currently in 7th place. These teams were even more closely aligned record-wise, before recent form kicked in. The Blazers are just 1-6 SU and ATS their L7 games while Orlando has won 5 of 7 and covered 4 straight. 

Of course, Damian Lillard being out indefinitely has literally and figuratively hurt the Blazers. You can tie his groin injury to when the team began to falter. Yet, it’s not a lack of offense that’s killing the Blazers right now. They are giving up an average of 121.7 PPG in their last six losses. They gave up 129 to a lousy Atlanta team Saturday night, which may have been rock bottom for the season.

Fortunately for the Blazers, Orlando comes in averaging just 105.3 PPG, which has them near the bottom of the league in that regard. The Magic’s 43.8 FG% is also at the bottom of the league. In Lillard’s absence, Hassan Whiteside has picked up the slack. Not only is Whiteside averaging 14.2 rebounds per game this year, he leads the league w/ 172 blocked shots. I look for this to be a close game. Orlando doesn’t blow many teams out. They are just 11-17-2 ATS at home and 8-16 SU vs. the Western Conference. 10* Portland

10* Louisville (6:00 ET): #11 Louisville has a chance to be in first place all by itself w/ a win tonight. That’s thanks to Florida State getting upset Saturday. But with the Cardinals having been swept by FSU this season, that means they’ll need to finish at least a game ahead. I look for them to take no prisoners Sunday in this matchup w/ Va Tech. L’ville is off its second straight loss to FSU, which occurred Monday in Tallahassee. They’ve had plenty of time to “stew” over that 82-67 defeat. 

Virginia Tech has had little to no success throughout this ACC campaign. The Hokies have dropped eight of their last nine games, the only win coming at home vs. Pitt (were three-point favorites). They just lost Wednesday in Blacksburg, to Virginia, 56-53 as a three-point favorite. They’ve now failed to cover 10 of their last 11 games. 

Louisville has won and covered three straight in this ACC rivalry including 72-64 in Blacksburg in their only meeting last season. With almost a week to prepare and coming off a loss, I expect a really strong effort here. They’ve had two extra days to prepare compared to Va Tech. It’s also “Senior Day” (final home game). Yes, they must overcome the injury to Malik Williams, but the Cardinals are 16-1 SU at home this season, winning by almost 17 PPG. 10* Louisville

10* Minnesota (3:30 ET): I’ve got a ton of respect for Dallas and actually think they’re much better than their current WL record, which has them 7th in the Western Conference. In terms of both point differential and net efficiency rating, they are 5th in the entire league! However, with a questionable Luka Doncic, I am not about to lay points on the road w/ this team. It’s not just Doncic’s questionable status either. The Mavs can be wildly inconsistent (as they showed in a recent loss at Atlanta).

Dallas also lost in Miami Friday, which isn’t that big of a deal considering how good the Heat are at home. But the Mavs did give up 126 points as lack of defense continues to be an issue for them. Tonight certainly has the potential to be another game where they give up plenty of points. Minnesota has scored at least 123 in each of its last three games. If they can get there again, you have to like them at home in this price range.

Of course, the T’wolves are giving up plenty of points themselves. But they did just win at Miami, something Dallas failed to do. Now the T’wolves also just lost in Dallas and gave up 139 pts in doing so. I just think at home we’re going to get a better effort from them. As we saw last night w/ our winning call on Golden State, any team can win on a given night in this league. 10* Minnesota