10* Xavier (10:05 ET): The Musketeers have treated me quite well so far in this Tournament. I've been on them in both games. First, they knocked off overrated Maryland 76-65 as a two-point dog. Then came one of the most impressive performances of the entire tournament as they whipped Florida State 91-66 as 7.5-pt dogs. That was their sixth consecutive cover as it's become pretty apparant this team was undervalued in the wake of the Edmond Sumner injury. But like Oregon w/o Chris Boucher, they are making "due." Sure, there was a six-game losing streak towards the end of the regular season, but they've clearly righted the ship. Arizona is a team that's also been covering of late (5-0-1 ATS L6), but I feel they're drastically overrated. Take the points.

In the interest of full disclosure, I went against Arizona against St. Mary's. Though that play was ultimately unsuccessful (Wildcats won 69-60 as five-point chalk), note that they were NOT "in the money" most of the way. In fact, they got behind big early, trailing 24-14. But credit them for catching fire in the second half where they shot 59.1% from the floor. But such a come from behind effort cannot be counted on regularly. Granted, 'Zona is 5-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. But, defensively, I believe them to be the INFERIOR foe in this matchup. Yes, they held St. Mary's to only 60 points, but that has as much to do w/ the Gaels' slow tempo as anything else. Prior to that win, the Wildcats had allowd 75+ pts in five of six games. Meanwhile, Xavier has held five of its last six opponents to 65 pts or less.

What the Musketeers did to Florida State last Saturday was really impressive. The Seminoles were the tallest team in the field, yet Xavier actually outrebounded them and was able to shoot 55% from the field. There was also a massive discrepancy from behind the arc as Xavier was 11 of 17 while FSU was only 4 of 21. That is unlikely to be repeated, but I don't think it has to be for the Musketeers to pull off yet another upset. Their zone really confused the 'Noles and I'd be shocked if we didn't see it again here. Also, Xavier did a great job at taking care of the basketball last game, turning it over just nine times. I don't have Arizona rated that much higher than FSU, so this line looks to be a real "steal." Arizona has shot 53.5% from the field its last five games. That's due to regress, right? 10* Xavier

10* New York (10:05 ET): The miserable Knicks may have come up just short again last night, but for a second straight time they at least covered the spread. It was a 108-101 loss at Utah, a good team that allows the fewest number of points per game in the league. Predictably, the Knicks are again catching a ton of points tonight in Portland. I get that this is the second game of a back to back (not to mention the 3rd road game in 4 nights), but are the Blazers really deserving of as much respect as the Jazz? I don't think so. Not w/ their 24th place ranking in defensive efficiency or the fact they just lost at home to Milwaukee. Overall, Portland has posted the second worst ATS record in the league, ahead of only Orlando. As lousy as the Knicks have been, they are actually top 10 at the betting window, largely due to situations such as this where they are getting so many points.

The worst thing of all for Portland on Tuesday night is they wasted what was actually a rare strong effort on the defensive end. They held Milwaukee to just 93 points, yet still lost outright at home. They shot just 42.2% from the floor and had only 35 points by halftime. They trailed by as many as 15 in the second half and were a terrible 4 of 21 from three-point range. The offensive number are obviously likely to improve tonight, but at the same time, I expect the defensive numbers to regress. This team allows 109.7 PPG, which makes it very difficult to cover as a favorite of this magnitude. In fact, Portland has been outscored over the course of the season. They are only 17-15 SU at home. 

It's become apparent that the Knicks are deliberately tanking w/ an eye towards next year. They've lost six of seven w/ two losses to Brooklyn during that time. But they were competitive against the Clippers Monday night (lost by 9) and then again in Utah last night (actually led going into the fourth quarter). I project them topping 100 pts for a fourth straight game, which makes covering the spread seem very likely. Furthermore, they've already beaten Portland this season, doing so back in November at MSG. Off three or more consecutive SU losses, the Knicks are 7-2 ATS this season. They're a bad team playing young players, but at least that means we'll be getting a decent effort and this is just way too many points for Portland to be laying against any team. 10* New York

10* Purdue (9:39 ET): It seems as if Kansas is getting a lot of "love" as the potential favorite to cut the nets down next week. I'm not buying it. I felt the Jayhawks were - clearly - the weakest of the four #1 seeds coming into the Tournament. Yes, it was another Big 12 regular season crown for Bill Self, but his team wasn't as dominant as per usual. They were quite fortunate to go 12-3 SU in games decided by single digits in the regular season. Sure, they've rolled in the first two tournament games, but beating Cal Davis by 38 meant next to nothing and second round Michigan State was highly overrated (certainly not one of Tom Izzo's best teams). Meanwhile, despite being Big 10 regular season champs, Purdue doesn't seem to be getting a lot of credit here. Take the points.

The fourth seeded Boilermakers, like Kansas, were "one and done" in their conference tournament. But unlike Kansas (who lost to TCU), Purdue at least had the "excuse" of running into a quality team as they fell to Michigan and let's not forget that was an overtime game as well. In fact, the Wolverines are the ONLY team to beat Purdue since the start of February (did it twice). Let's note that the Big 10 as a whole seems to undergoing a critical re-evaluation in this Tournament as they've placed a total of three teams in the Sweet 16. Wisconsin has already upset Villanova while Michigan beat Louisville. There's no reason not to think that Purdue can't do the same to Kansas here. Getting this many points, I believe they are a simply tremendous value. It's pretty rare to find them getting points (only happened three times previously this year.

Purdue's 1st round game saw them beat Vermont 80-70. They shot the ball very well against the Catamounts, making nearly 52% of their attempts. Remember that Vermont was a team that came in riding the nation's longest win streak (21 games). The final score of Purdue's 2nd round matchup vs. Iowa State (80-76) was a little misleading in the sense that they led by as many as 19 in the second half. That's an Iowa State team that did beat Kansas during the regular season. Interestingly, Purdue also swept the Michigan State team that Kansas just beat. Look for the Boilermakers' size to be an issue for the Jayhawks and I simply don't believe that Josh Jackson can continue this hot run he's been on. Purdue actually has a better scoring differential than Kansas over the course of the year and is higher ranked in defensive efficiency. 10* Purdue

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): The Spurs (quietly) are only 2.5 games back of the Warriors for the best overall record in the NBA. But while the Dubs have recently reasserted their dominance (four straight wins by double digits), Greg Popovich's team hasn't been quite as impressive. Sure, they've won four of six, but every win has been by single digits. The most recent, a 100-93 triumph at Minnesota on Tuesday, saw them actually trail by nine at halftime. But tonight, I look for the San Antonio to post a big win in what is a revenge spot. They lost in Memphis (as 3.5-pt faves) last week and are actually 0-2 SU against their potential first round playoff opponent this season. I expect them to take this game quite seriously. Lay the points.

Memphis has never had much success down in the Alamo, winning only eight times in 48 tries. This will be their first visit here this season. They're off a road loss, at New Orleans, Tuesday night. That game saw them score only 82 points. Despite recent success (loss to NO snapped a four-game SU/ATS win streak), the Grizz have not shot the ball well. Tuesday marked the fourth straight game where they were held to 42% shooting or worse and that's trouble when getting set to face the top ranked team in defensive efficiency in the entire league. Against the Pelicans, three players - Mike Conley, Vince Carter and Wayne Selden - combined to go 0 for 13 from three-point range. Saturday vs. San Antonio, the Grizz shot just 42.1% and I'm really scratching my head as to how they won that one.

It wasn't a great shooting night for San Antonio either Saturday as they finished 9 of 28 from three-point range. Keep in mind this is the best three-point shooting team in the league. Also, they turned the ball over 15 times. Here at home, I expect far better results. The Spurs are outscoring opponents by 9.5 PPG at the AT&T Center. Before losing Saturday, the Spurs were 13-1 SU in revenge spots this season. I think a lot of people are going to view the points as "tempting," something that is not always the case, so fade what could be a trendy underdog. I believe this should be a double digit spread. 8* San Antonio

10* Under Michigan/Oregon (7:05 ET): They might be a 7-seed, but Michigan is as hot as any team in the country right now. The Wolverines won the Big 10 Tournament (including a win over top-seed Purdue) and probably have as impressive a two wins as any team in the Sweet 16. They first beat Oklahoma State 92-91 (fell victim to a backdoor cover), then upset 2-seed Louisville 73-69 as a three-point dog. Despite being the lower seed here, the Maize and Blue are actually slight favorites, probably based on the premise that this is the "hot" team right now. Certainly they've been hot from an Over bettors' perspective as well (9-2 Over L11) as has Thursday's opponent, Oregon. The Ducks have gone Over in eight of their last nine, including both Tournament Games. But looking at this number, the O/U line simply seems too high. Take the Under. 

Oregon had little trouble w/ Iona in Rd 1, beating them 93-77. But Rhode Island proved to be a far greater challenge on Sunday. The Ducks had to rally from an eight-point halftime deficit and didn't secure the game until a three-pointer in the final minute from Tyler Dorsey, who finished the game 9 of 10 from the field including four three-pointers. Rhode Island was actually the team that shot better for the game, but Oregon was far more efficient from three-point range. The fact that the Ducks have been able to advance this far w/o Center Chris Boucher is pretty impressive. But will Boucher's absence finally catch up w/ them against Michigan, who is easily the best team the Ducks have faced in the Tourney?

Both teams can obviously score as is evident by the fact they each topped 90 pts in their respective first round matchups. But scoring for both dropped pretty significantly in Round 2. Each defense is somewhat underrated as Michigan only gives up an average of 66.3 points per game while Oregon is slightly stingier, allowing just 65.6 PPG. Neither team's total PPG average exceeds what the O/U line is here, which is certainly notable. As hot as Michigan has been, they cannot possibly continue to shoot this well. They've gone 32 of 36 on uncontested shots, which is pretty ridiculous. Even wide open, you'd expect college players to miss more than 10% of the time. They have made 39% of all three-point attempts the L6 games, including 47.8% in the NCAA Tournament, percentages which should start to come down. Oregon is holding teams to just 31.3% shooting from behind the arc this year. This is one of the highest totals of the year for any Michigan game. 10* Under Michigan/Oregon

10* Under Cavs/Nuggets (9:05 ET): These are two of the five most efficient offenses in the league, but still, this number is way too high. Because they are also 29th in defensive efficiency (right between Brooklyn and the Lakers!), the Nuggets are the top Over team in the league. But, again, the number is too high. Cleveland is by no means a defensive stalwart as we saw in a 125-120 win over the Lakers Sunday. But, say it with me, this number is too high. Yes, the teams combined for 234 points (125-109 Cavs win) last month, but ... you get the picture. Take the Under. 

The defending NBA Champs essentially "waved the white flag" on Saturday, resting LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love against the Clippers. They lost 108-78 as a result. Being able to beat the Lakers by only five w/ the "Big 3" all suited up was hardly cause for celebration. Led by Irving's 46 points, the team did shoot 52.9% and that was enough, however. But the Over is still only 6-6 this year in Cavs' games when the total is 220+. Theoretically, they shouldn't have much difficulty scoring here, but even so, their games average "only" 216.7 total points. That's substantially lower than this O/U line, which will be the third highest for any of their games this season. They stayed Under the highest line, 10 days ago at Houston.

Even for Denver, whose games average the most total points in the league (223.3), this is a high O/U line. They were just swept in a home and home with Houston. The second game was higher scoring than the first, considerably so, as they fell 125-124 on a last second James Harden layup. But I look for their offensive production to decrease here. They can't possibly continue to average 118.4 points like they have over the L5 games. They shot just 40% in the first meeting vs. Cleveland and it looks like Danilo Gallinari won't play again tonight.  Too many things have to "break right" to go Over a total this high and I just don't see it happening here. 10* Under Cavs/Nuggets

10* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): Coastal Carolina moved from the Big South to the Sun Belt this season and experienced what has to be considered a moderate amt of success given the step up in class. While finishing in a three-way tie for sixth place hardly sounds impressive on the surface, note that all of one game separated third from eighth place. A tough draw resulted in the Chanticleers running into top seed UT Arlington in the SBC Tourney and they lost there 71-54. But they've since taken full advantage of the "postseason experience" by winning their first two CBI games by comfortable margins. First, they took out Hampton 83-67 as nine-point chalk. Then it was Loyola MD, 72-63 as five-point faves on Monday. At home again, I feel that this team is being severely undervalued against IL-Chicago in this semifinal matchup. Lay the points.

IL-Chicago is the poster child for the excess of the College postseason. The Flames have a losing record overall and were just 7-11 SU in the Horizon League. As the nation's youngest team, I can see why they'd accept this invite though. They've made the most of it as well, including an upset of George Washington (as six-point dogs) on Monday. Their first CBI game was a close one, however, as they squeaked by Stony Brook by just two points (Sea Wolves shot just 34.1%). This will be UIC's first road game of the tournament though and I think that spells the end for them. They give up 81.4 PPG away from home and it's been more than a month since they won a true "roadie." Their regular season finale at Wright State resulted in an ugly 38-point loss. 

Clearly, the oddsmakers were off in installing UIC as six-point home dogs against GW Monday. The Flames led the whole way, much of the time by double digits. But playing on the road is a whole different animal. While they did win a total of four conference road games, note that two came in overtime. Not surprisingly, the two regulations wins were games where their defense actually showed up. They allowed just 54 pts to Cleveland State on 1.12 and 69 to Detroit on 2.17. But in the other seven Horizon League road games, they gave up a MINIMUM of 82 pts. That's bad news facing a Coastal Carolina team that averages a healthy number here in Conway. But perhaps more important is the fact the Chanticleers hold their opponents to just 38.5% shooting here at home. 10* Coastal Carolina

10* Golden State (8:35 ET): I won w/ the Warriors last night as yet again they thrashed the Thunder. The game was never really close as they led by 20 at halftime and 26 entering the fourth quarter (this is on the road, remember!). While there's some concern about a potential letdown after such an emotional game (benches cleared at one point last night), it sure does seem that the Dubs are being severely undervalued for a second consecutive night. Dallas is a team that dug itself an early season hole that was far too big to climb out of. Even though they're 14-9 SU the L23 games, not even home court can rectify the massive talent edge Golden State has in this matchup. This line should be closer to double digits. Lay the points.

In yday's analysis, I talked about how rare it is to get the Warriors as such as short favorite. Other than the game where they rested everyone against San Antonio (they were a significant dog there), Golden State had not been a dog or favored by less than four points prior to last night. We already talked about what happened in Oklahoma City. Now, let's talk about what will happen in Dallas. We all know that the Warriors rank #1 in the league in offensive efficiency. But they are also #2 in defensive efficiency. The loss of Kevin Durant is significant, but let's not forget that this was the best team in the league w/o him the L2 years. After a bit of a rocky start w/o Durant, the Dubs have now won four in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. So, in other words, everything is just fine here.

Dallas simply does not have the offense to compete here. Keep in mind that they are the ONLY team in the league not to be averaging 100 PPG. They did score 111 in a win Sunday, but that was at the expense of the Nets. Friday saw the Mavs lose by 40+ at Philadelphia! Their last home game saw them lose outright to Phoenix. This is an obvious huge step up in class from most of their recent opponents. The Warriors have no reason to "let up" in this spot as the Spurs are still only 2.5 games back of them for the top spot in the Western Conference. 10* Golden State

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Going back to the All-Star Break of the 2013-14 season, the Bulls and Raptors have met 11 times. What if I told you that Chicago has won and covered all 11 matchups?! That's the case and it makes little sense in that Toronto has generally been the better team during that time frame. Even this year has seen the Bulls post a pair of victories at the Raptors' expense. However, both came in the Windy City and tonight marks their first trip "North of the Border." I think we've learned that the Raptors have become severely undervalued in the wake of Kyle Lowry's injury as they still have the best net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference. I'll call for this ridiculous streak to come to an end tonight as Toronto wins and covers. Lay the points.

On Friday, I took the Raptors plus the points in Detroit. They won outright 87-75. Two days later, it was an even more lopsided win here at home (116-91 over the Pacers). They made 12 of 27 three-pointers in that game. Even w/o Lowry, this remains a prolific offense at home. The team averages 110.5 PPG here at the Air Canada Centre and as a result has a 23-12 SU record. All five starters were in double figures vs. Indiana and Jonas Valanciunas recorded his team-leading 26th double double. The losing streak to the Bulls is not lost on the players and surely they remember blowing a 19-pt lead and losing in overtime back in January. "Whatever we have to do to get this (monkey) off our back against Chicago, they beat us 11 in a row and that has to stop," said Raptors HC Dwayne Casey.

I also won w/ the Bulls recently as in their last game, which was a 95-86 home win over the Jazz. I wouldn't look for them to hold this opponent to the low of a point total though, or to 38.3% shooting like they did the Jazz. After allowing 90 pts or less in the previous game, the Bulls are just 2-6 SU/ATS this season. Over the L5 games, they are still averaging only 97.6 PPG. This is a below average team, particularly on the road where they are only 13-22 SU for the year. Remember that before the win over Utah, Chicago had dropped seven of eight. Dwyane Wade is done for the year, probably an overrated loss, but a loss nevertheless. To me, this is all about the Raptors stopping a long losing skid that makes little sense. In addition to having the best net efficiency rating in the conference, they are #2 in point differential. 8* Toronto

10* Golden State (8:05 ET): This will be the fourth and - barring a playoff series - final meeting of the season between Kevin Durant's current and former teams. Durant is a major reason why the Warriors are 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the Thunder and his absence also plays a large role in this line being so low. But while Golden State may not have Durant this time around, they are certainly good enough to still win @ OKC. Their average margin of victory in the first three meetings is 21 points, so that's a lot of ground for the Thunder to make up. Yes, I realize OKC is playing a lot better now and comes into tonight's nationally televised contest more healthy and with a more well rounded roster. But despite being 11 games over .500 and battling for the 5th seed in the Western Conference, this remains a very average team in terms of efficiency. Lay the short number. 

Golden State is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency. They've made two straight Finals w/o Durant, so I don't think there's any reason to really "sell" on this team. They had struggled at the betting window for much of the second half of the season, but are off B2B covers as DD favorites. A 30-point win over Orlando is nothing special, but beating Milwaukee by 25 shows this is still the team to beat. Note that the Dubs were eight-point favorites the last time they invaded Chesapeake Energy Arena, so we're getting a lot of value here. Yes, Durant's absence has to be accounted for. But this seems like an overadjustment to me. This is a team routinely favored by double digits. Aside from the game where they rested everyone against San Antonio (were dogs there), this is the best value on Golden State all season. 

The Warriors have had no issues scoring OKC in the three previous meetings this season. They've scored 122, 121 and 130 pts respectively. The Thunder are dead even in terms of points scored/allowed per 100 possessions, which is an indication of a pretty mediocre team. They enter this game on a five game SU and ATS win streak, but the L3 wins have been against Brooklyn, Toronto (w/o Lowry) and Sacramento.They have a losing record this year against teams w/ a winning record. Yes, emotions will be high for this game, but I just don't see the Thunder as being on Golden State's level, even at home and not having to deal w/ Durant. 10* Golden State

8* Over Jazz/Pacers (7:05 ET): There's been an incredible rash of Unders in Indiana games recently, but I shouldn't have to tell you that tonight's total is exceedingly low by 2017 NBA standards. Of course, that's got a lot to do w/ the opponent here as well. Utah is the top defensive team in the league - at least by points per game allowed (96.3) - and they've gone Under in three straight as well. But I have to go back to just how low this total is. Last night was the first time in over three months that the O/U line was sub-200 for a Pacers game. It went Over - easily - as they allowed 116 points in a loss to the Raptors. This is just the third sub-200 pt O/U line for them all season and the Over is 2-0 previously. Their games average slightly more than 209 PPG this year, so this number is just way too low. Take the Over. 

As I said before, Utah is 1st in the league in points allowed. They are third in defensive efficiency, trailing only the Spurs and Warriors. Yet, this is a low total even for them. Their games average 196.6 PPG for the season and I've got to imagine we're about to see an uptick in their offensive production. They've shot poorly the last two games - losses at Cleveland and Chicago - and failed to score more than 86 pts either time. For the year, they average 100 PPG. They haven't been held below 90 in three consecutive games at any point this season. I'm hopeful that either Shelvin Mack or Rodney Hood returns tonight, but even if neither does, we're due to see an uptick in offense from the last two games. Indiana allows over 105 PPG.

The Pacers also average 106.5 PPG at home. They've been way under their season average of late, last night included, having failed to score even 100 pts in seven of their last nine games. They're averaging just 91.4 PPG on 43.4% shooting the L5 games, averages which are absolutely due to regress to the mean. At the same time, their defensive numbers have also improved, thus the rash of Unders. But last night they allowed 116 pts to a Toronto team that doesn't have Kyle Lowry. I expect Utah to shoot well here, certainly better than most recent Indiana opponents have. When these teams played two months ago in Salt Lake, the Jazz won 109-100 (and the game was 60-50 at half). Now the total is significantly lower. Both of these teams shoot pretty well from three-point range. 8* Over Jazz/Pacers

8* Over Hawks/Hornets (7:05 ET): I'm not surprised by the line for this Southeast Division matchup at all. My own power rankings have said that Charlotte has been the better team, basically all year. Now Atlanta has lost three straight (last two as home favorites) and will be w/o Paul Milsap for at least the next two games. Meanwhile, Charlotte picked up a crucial win Saturday night here at home, beating Washington 98-93. While the Hawks are five games over .500, they've been outscored on the year. The Hornets might be nine games under .500, but they've actually outscored their opponents. Yet, I can't lay the points here as it seems as if the market has caught up to the discrepancy that exists between the two teams. Instead, let's look at the total. I'm on the Over.

The current three-game losing skid that Atlanta is on has seen them get held under 100 pts every time out. The margins of defeat have grown w/ each passing game, culminating in a 16-point home loss to Portland on Saturday. That game saw them shoot just 36.4% from the field, which is well below their season average of 45.5%. Not a great offensive team by any means, the Hawks now need to find a reliable option w/ Milsap out of the lineup. Kent Bazemore is also out. How about Ersan Illyasova, who scored 23 pts while starting in Milsap's place Saturday? Or Dennis Schroeder, who simply HAS to improve after a disastrous 2 of 14 shooting performance against the Blazers.

Eight of the last 10 times these teams have played, the Under has cashed. That includes four in a row. Two of those have come this season, but the last meeting was all the way back in December. This is a game that Charlotte clearly must have and they are averaging over 105 PPG. They are 2-0 vs. the Hawks so far this season, averaging 103.5 PPG in the two victories. Something I find odd is that the Hornets' defense has been significantly better in division games this year (96.1 PPG allowed) than it has overall (104.2 PPG allowed). That doesn't speak well to Atlanta's chances here, but I think that discrepancy is about to rectified even w/o Milsap and Bazemore. Both teams' total PPG average exceeds tonight's O/U line, which would be the lowest of any of the three meetings this season. 8* Over Hawks/Hornets

10* Cincinnati (9:40 ET): I faded UCLA in their 1st round matchup against Kent State and despite being the vastly superior unit there, the Bruins still could not cover the spread. Granted, they came close (won 97-80 as 18.5-pt chalk), but I feel that the final score was pretty misleading. Kent State didn't even play well (started the game 1 for 11 from the field), yet was within four early in the second half. Were it not for an early 16-2 lead, one has to wonder how UCLA would be viewed right now. They did shoot a blistering 62.7% from the floor Friday night, but that number will be almost impossible to repeat here against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 11th nationally in efficiency. Meanwhile, it's rather frightening that UCLA allowed Kent State to score 80 pts, but then again their defense has been suspect all season. Unlike against Kent State, UCLA simply won't be able to overwhelm by sheer talent here. Take the points.

Of all the remaining teams in the field, UCLA is clearly the worst defensively. Well, one could make a case for Arkansas, but the bottom line is that the Bruins rank 83rd in efficiency and give up 77.6 PPG outside of Westwood. They rely on the nation's top scoring offense, but will be "up against it here" against a Cincy squad which allows just 60.8 PPG. Making matters more challenging for the Bruins is that Lonzo Ball injured himself Friday on a hard fall. He'll play, but he clearly wasn't 100% down the stretch against Kent State. Also, Ike Anigbogu is still battling a foot injury which kept him out of the Kent State game entirely. He's expected to return tonight, but he too won't be 100%. Again, UCLA is not going to enjoy the hot shooting they had on Friday.

Let's take a moment to recognize what HC Mick Cronin has been able to do here at Cincinnati. The Bearcats have been able to win an average of 25 games over the L7 seasons and entered this year's tournament at 29-5 SU, just one game back of UCLA in the loss column. They had little difficulty dispatching a gritty Kansas State team Friday, winning and covering that game 75-61 as three-point chalk. Incredibly, they shot just as well as UCLA did against Kent State! But they also held the Wildcats to just 38.9% shooting. They also enjoyed significant edges in points in the paint and rebounding. The Bearcats are 4th nationally in scoring defense and thus probably the stingiest team UCLA will have faced all season long. Note that UCLA is 3-8 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. 10* Cincinnati

8* Baylor (7:45 ET): USC is, without question, the worst remaining team in the field. In fact, I'd argue that they were the weakest at-large team to make the Tournament. Yes, I know Trojans fans, they've "gotten this far," but it's been a pretty shaky road for Andy Enfield's team in having to overcome double digit deficits against both Providence and SMU. Now playing their third game in five days (remember they had to win a 'Play In Game') what can they possibly have left in the tank? Baylor isn't getting much respect here due to past Tournament failures, but is the vastly superior team here and should have no problem winning by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for. Lay the points. 

Baylor won its first round game 91-73 over New Mexico State and covered as 11-pt chalk. It was a somewhat shaky first half (actually trailed at the break!), but the Bears completely dominated the 2H, holding the Aggies to 37 percent shooting. USC is probably more adept at dealing w/ Baylor's size and length, but that doesn't mean they'll be able to overcome it. In fact, I expect Baylor to completely dominate the glass in this matchup as the Trojans are not a good defensive rebounding team. Baylor is also the far better team on the defensive end as they rank 10th in efficiency compared to just 86th for USC. The Bears allow roughly 10 PPG fewer over the course of the season. 

I still can't get it out of my head how lucky USC is to be here. They trailed Providence by 17 early in the second half. They trailed SMU by as many as 12. The team's record is games decided by five points or less is now a somewhat improbable 9-3 SU. In terms of luck rating, they rate among the eight most fortunate teams in the country in terms of expected vs. actual victories. Despite being 26-9 SU on the season, at no point this year have I even considered this to be on of the top 25 teams in America. In fact, in Pac 12 play, they finished just sixth in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency and that was not a deep league. What happened was they really took care of business when favored (21-2 SU), but they're still only 4-7 SU as a dog this year, getting outscored by 8.7 PPG. 8* Baylor

10* Under Arkansas/North Carolina (6:10 ET): This shapes up as the most lopsided second round matchup, at least according to the oddsmakers, who have installed top seed North Carolina as a DD favorite. That's probably deserved, but I don't dare lay that number even after watching the Tar Heels win by 39 in Round 1. Arkansas clearly benefited from the much-debated "flagrant foul" call at the end of their game w/ Seton Hall as they won 77-71 as a 1-pt dog (they opened as slight fave). But the Hogs could very well be game here. Therefore, we turn to the total. Both teams average a ton of points per game, but this is a really high O/U line and as a result, I'm going Under. Neither team sees it's total # of PPG exceed the O/U line we have to work w/ here. 

The regular season saw Arkansas threaten Kentucky for honors as the top offense in the SEC. They come in ranked 26th in offensive efficiency nationally (Kentucky is 14th) and average a healthy 79.7 points per game. In the 1st round matchup vs. Seton Hall, the Razorbacks shot the ball okay and nearly hit their season average. But a key to this matchup is that they don't really play as "fast" as some think. In terms of tempo, they barely make the top 100 in the country. Defensively, they've actually been able to hold four of their previous five opponents under 39% shooting. The only exception was Kentucky. In terms of the number, the Under was 5-2 in the reg season for Arkansas when the O/U line was between 160 and 169.5. 

Similarly, North Carolina didn't regularly see O/U lines this high either. The fact that they topped 100 points against overmatched TX Southern in Round 1 only serves to help inflate the number here. Now the Tar Heels are one of the top scoring teams in the country (85.4 PPG), but they too have been playing quality defense of late. Four of their previous six opponents have not shot the ball better than 40 percent from the field. There's been a bit of an issue guarding the three-point line outside of Chapel Hill, but Arkansas comes in averaging just five three-point makes per game in road/neutral site games. Though Joel Berry II is expected to play here, the UNC forward did not practice as a result of an ankle injury. The Tar Heels offense will not be the same w/o him at 100%. 10* Under Arkansas/North Carolina

8* Phoenix (4:30 ET): OK, compared to the other teams in this run of underdogs I've been winning with, I rate the Suns' chances of winning outright to be fairly low. But that doesn't mean they're not worth taking plus a ton of points against a Detroit side that's been consistently overvalued throughout the year. I don't think the Pistons deserve to be favored by double digits against anyone quite frankly, not even the dregs of the league. I went against them Friday as a 3.5-point choice, here at home against Toronto, and they lost outright 87-75. It was their third straight loss and non-cover. Phoenix is on an identical streak (with all three losses coming at home) and was actually favored their last two times out! Back to their customary role of underdog, they'll fare far better this afternoon at the betting window.

When favored this season, the Suns have performed very poorly, going 3-10 SU and ATS. But as a dog, they've gone 31-23-2 ATS. They'd covered five of six overall before the current three-game slide and all five covers came as a dog. (Not surprisingly, they were favored in the one loss). Overall, they're 5-1 ATS the L6 times they've been getting points. While they've elected to "shut down" PG Eric Bledsoe (21.1 PPG) for the remainder of the season, they still have Devin Booker. While a little banged up right now, Booker should be far more productive today than he was in Friday's loss to Orlando where he scored only 10 pts. By the way, the Suns have already beaten the Pistons this year, 107-100 as 4.5-pt home dogs back in November.

It's not often you find Detroit favored by this many. Looking back, you'd have to go all the way to December to find the last time they were asked to lay double digits and that time they lost outright to Philadelphia, 97-79. Only one other time since (again vs. Philadelphia) have they been asked to lay more than 7.5 points. Down the stretch against Toronto, the team was just atrocious offensively, missing 13 of its final 14 shots and finishing the game 3 of 20 from three-point range. This is one of the worst shooting teams in the league and over the course of the season they've been outscored. There's just no way I'd ever lay this many points with the Pistons. 8* Phoenix

8* Wichita State (2:40 ET): It's pretty much been accepted that Wichita State was drastically underseeded. Some metrics consider the Shockers to be among the top ten teams in the COUNTRY, so it's clearly laughable that they were seeded 10th. Round 1 saw them favored by a record amount as a lower seed, but it was by no means easy against Dayton. They won 64-58, but did so despite some terrible first half shooting, which included 2 for 12 from the three-point line (10 of 28 overall). However, they were able to turn the tables in the 2H, holding Dayton to just 8 of 29 shooting. I feel the fact that they were able to advance despite not playing well is a GOOD sign. The Shockers being underseeded is not good news for Kentucky and remember this is a revenge spot for a couple of years ago when UK was drastically underseeded and "upset" a top-seeded Wichita State team. Take the points.

Kentucky had little difficulty ousting Northern Kentucky Friday, winning that 2 vs. 15 matchup 79-70. However, they came nowhere close to covering the 20-point spread. Like Wichita State, they too had a bad shooting night from three-point range (3 of 17), but were able to overwhelm the Norse w/ their size and De'Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe finished a combined 15 of 25 in the paint. But things won't come that easy vs. the Shockers, nor will the Wildcats be able to dominate the glass as they are accustomed to doing. UK has hurt itself this season (at least at the betting window) by getting off to slow starts. Interestingly, that was not the case against Northern Kentucky. Instead, it was a poor second half that kept the game closer than it should have been. Bottom line is that I'm troubled by the Wildcats' seeming inability to put together a "complete" 40-minute performance. It will cost them here.

Wichita State is outscoring team by 19.2 PPG this year. Obviously, that number must be taken with some "grain of salt" considering the Missouri Valley isn't very deep, but even so, their adjusted MOV is still second best in the country. Also, this will be the 1st time all season that the Shockers will be getting points. Great value! I look for them to turn this into a half-court type game and if they can hold UK to a shooting percentage anywhere near what they held Dayton to (31 percent) or if the Wildcats shoot like they did vs. Northern Kentucky, then this one will be an outright win for the dog. I have the two teams rated basically dead even, so take the points. 8* Wichita State

8* Chicago (9:05 ET): The Bulls lost again Saturday (7th time in L8 games), but at least were able to cover in Washington thanks to a late rally. Falling behind by 19 at the half ultimately doomed them and more and more its looking like the playoffs are not in this team's future. Now that being said, they are only two games back of current 8-seed Miami. Tonight, they return home where they have not won since beating the Warriors 94-87 back on March 2nd. But they are still 19-15 SU for the year at the United Center and if we've learned anything about this team, it's that they tend to "play up" (or down) to the level of competition. Thus, I think they are a great value getting a ton of points here against Utah as I imagine this being a pretty low-scoring game. 

For the Jazz, this will be their third road game in four nights, all out East. They started the trip w/ a 97-83 win in Detroit, but then lost in Cleveland Thursday, 91-83 as eight-point dogs. Averaging just 90 PPG so far on trip doesn't bode well for laying this many points. Sure they are 4th in the West, but this is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league remember. In fact, only two teams average fewer points per game! Utah isn't exactly healthy right now either as Derrick Favors remains out (knee) plus Shelvin Mack and Rodney Hood may miss tonight's game as well.

Though it was "long ago," the Bulls did beat the Jazz back in November. It was an ugly 85-77 win where neither team shot the ball well. I imagine a similar style game tonight. On the Chicago injury front, I'm not concerned at all about the loss of Dwyane Wade as he was a pretty terrible free agent acquisition anyway. It's rare to catch this many points w/ the Bulls at home and already this year, they've gone 7-4 ATS as a home dog.  8* Chicago

10* St. Mary's (7:45 ET): In terms of the books' handle, this is shaping up to be the most lopsided game on the board today. That's just fine by me as I was banking on St. Mary's being underrated anyway. These teams are a lot more even than most realize and I actually have the Gaels rated higher (despite being a 7-seed while Arizona is a 2). So, naturally, I'll take the points. Both teams rolled to easy 1st round wins. St. Mary's obviously did so against a tougher opponent, VCU, whom they beat 85-77 and really it wasn't that close. Meanwhile, Arizona rolled to 100 points against overmatched North Dakota. The fact that the Wildcats hit triple digits only further adds to them being overvalued in this spot. People want to focus on the fact that St. Mary's was 0-3 vs. Gonzaga this year, but their statistical profile is excellent and the country is about to find out just how good this team really is.

St. Mary's shot 63% from the field in the first half vs. VCU. That's obviously impressive, but even more so when you consider the Rams were holding foes to just 42% for the season. Hot shooting is nothing new for the Gaels, who have been at 55% or better four of the last five games. For the season, they are shooting at a 49.6% clip overall, which is 8th best nationally. Oh, by the way, they are also second in the country in points allowed at 57.1 per game! Clearly, holiding Arizona in check will be a tough test, but I feel the Gaels will be up to it. Remember that Gonzaga beat Arizona as well, in Tucson no less. So SMC's 0-3 SU/ATS record vs. the Zags isn't a huge concern for me here. They've lost only one other time this season and that was back in December to an underrated UT-Arlington team. Against VCU, the Gaels took the lead for good midway through the first half and led by 15 at the break.

Meanwhile, I think there's little takeaway from what Arizona did to North Dakota on Thursday. UND was clearly no match. But the fact the Wildcats scored 100 pts is likely to gain favor with the public. Again, that's just fine by me. Despite an impressive record away from home, I've had Arizona as one of my most overrated teams for much of the season. Note that they have allowed 75+ points in six of their last seven games, including four straight. They are 0-2 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts (North Dakota scored 82, which is kind of alarming). Arizona has had the good fortune of going 5-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. That good fortune will end here, however, as the underdog is the far better defensive team plus owns one of the top rebounding margins in the country. 10* St. Mary's

8* Butler (7:10 ET): I get the fervor surrounding Middle Tennessee right now. For the second year in a row, the Blue Raiders ousted a Big 10 team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Last year was a bonafide stunner as they beat Michigan State as a 15-seed. This year, they really didn't catch anyone by surprise as - despite being a 12-seed - they were actually favored against Minnesota Thursday. With a better team than last year, the expectation is now that MTSU will make it farther in the Big Dance. But, not so fast. Butler is a team that likes to play at a methodical pace and I think their performance Thursday against Winthrop was pretty underrated. They led the entire way in a 76-64 win and cover as 10.5-pt chalk. That improved them to 9-0 SU all-time in the Tournament when facing a lower seed. I'll lay the short number here.

I mentioned earlier that Middle Tennessee was actually favored in its first round game vs. Minnesota. That was one of the few poor jobs by the selection committee in terms of seeding (Wichita St as a 10-seed was the other). There's simply no way that Minnesota deserved to be a 5-seed. Still, you need to tip your cap to the Blue Raiders for winning their 11th straight game. They've also covered five in a row dating back to the regular season finale. But tonight marks their toughest test in a LONG time. You'd have to go all the way back to a December 17th matchup vs. VCU to find the last time MTSU was a dog. I'll argue that Butler is - easily - their toughest opponent to date. The Big East is obviously a much tougher league than Conference USA. And if you want to retort that so is the Big 10, I'll agree, but the Big 10 (Minnesota) isn't as strong as the Big East and quite frankly is pretty overrated.

Over its last five games, Middle Tennessee has averaged 85 points per game, which is well above their season average of 75.2. I'll call for some severe regression to the mean tonight thanks to Butler's propensity to slow down the pace. Something else to consider is that Butler owned by far and away the lowest turnover rate in the Big East. Rarely do they make mistakes. Avery Woodson has committed only 10 TO's - all season! Despite now coming off the bench, Kelan Martin is the Bulldogs' best player and leading scorer. The team's one weakness - rebounding - should not be an issue here against the smallish Blue Raiders. 8* Butler

8* Xavier (6:10 ET): I played both of these teams on Thursday. The fact that I won w/ Xavier and lost w/ Florida State isn't the only reason I'm taking the points with the Musketeers here. I was really disappointed by the way FSU failed to take advantage of its size against Florida Gulf Coast. Truth be told, the 'Noles played pretty poorly down the stretch and were fortunate that FGCU didn't shoot the ball well. Speaking of shooting, I don't see FSU repeating its own 55.6% performance from the field here against a Xavier team that has held four of its last five opponents to 42.9% or below. While they were a perfect 18-0 SU in Talahassee this year, the Seminoles are just 8-8 SU otherwise while being outscored. This number is now too high. Take the points.

Without Edmond Sumner, Xavier wasn't even expected to be here. There was a stretch in the regular season where they lost six in a row (also went 0-6 ATS). But they've quickly rectified that w/ five consecutive covers, the only loss during that stretch coming by three at Creighton. The Musketeers looked quite good on Thursday against Maryland. Really, I wouldn't even call that an upset as I said the "better team was getting points" in my analysis and that held true. Key here is Xavier's zone defense. Maryland really struggled shooting against it (26% from three-point range) and it's not as if Florida State is prolific from behind the arc. In fact, they were an awful 2 of 13 against FGCU.

Where Florida State dominated on Thursday was in the paint, which was to be expected. They shot 22 of 28 there and that's why they won. Still, they only won by six against a 14-seed despite shooting 55% from the floor. That's alarming. So is the team's free throw shooting. They missed 15 of 39 attempts from the charity stripe against FGCU. I don't see them getting that many attempts again here and the percentage of makes has been a problem all season (63.4% on the road!). Another issue Thursday was the 'Noles turned it over 16 times. Xavier may have gotten more than a point from only six players Thursday, but two were off the bench and they still have Trevon Blueitt, who didn't even play particularly well in the 1st half. While playing Orlando is theoretically an edge for FSU, Xavier has actually won seven straight times in the city! 8* Xavier

10* West Virginia (12:10 ET): Given that I couldn't possibly make the case that Notre Dame is a better team than WVU, this number would seem to be incredibly short. I played against the Fighting Irish Thursday (successfully) and I think it's certainly notable that they only won by 2 despite Princeton shooting just 38.6% overall including 8 of 31 from three-point range. As I noted in my analysis for that game, despite B2B Elite 8 runs, Irish HC Mike Brey has the worst Tournament ATS record (now 5-12) among his peers. The physical advantages that ND had against Princeton certainly won't be present here against "Press Virginia," who had a relatively easy time w/ Bucknell in Rd. 1. I've said it all year - the Mountaineers are one of the best teams in the country. They'll show that here. Lay the points. 

Known for its pressure 'D', West Virginia only forced 13 turnovers in their 86-80 win over Bucknell. That's well below their nation-leading 20.3 per game average. This would appear to be a "strength on strength" matchup as ND happens to own the lowest turnover rate in the country. So who blinks? I'm banking on it being the Irish. First off, if WVU can score 86 pts in a game where they forced fewer TO's than per usual, imagine what they can do if they turn the trademark pressure up. When applying the press, WVU held Bucknell under a point per possession Thursday. Offensive rebounding is something that will be critical here for the Mountaineers as well. 

Outside of South Bend, Notre Dame outscored its opponents by less than one point per game. WVU was at +7.4 PPG. In the adjusted scoring margin metric, the Mountaineers rank 4th in the entire country. But again, turnovers - or lack of them - will likely decide this game. WVU forces one on roughly 24% of all opponents' possessions w/ Jevon Carter leading the country w/ 89 steals. Again, Notre Dame may have the lowest TO margin in the country. But they've yet to face pressure quite like this. Then there is the issue of rebounding. WVU dominates the offensive glass. Notre Dame will struggle with this. In the regular season, the Fighting Irish ranked 12th in the ACC in defensive rebound percentage. That's not good. Love Bob Huggins' crew in this matchup. 10* West Virginia

8* Kent State (9:55 ET): What an incredible run this Kent State team is on. Not only have they won 9 of 10 (only loss to Akron), but they just beat the top three teams in the MAC (including top seed Akron) in three consecutive nights to get here. There is no doubt that they've been winning close. Their largest MOV during the streak was 10 points and that came in a wild overtime game (against Central Michigan) where they had to rally back from a 13-point halftime deficit at home! Six of the nine wins have been by five points or less. Still, I look for them to keep this game close against overrated UCLA. The spread is pretty huge here. It's the largest of any of the 3 vs. 14 matchups, in fact. Because of Lonzo Ball, the Bruins have become a stock that's far too overvalued coming into this Tournament. Take the points.

UCLA had won 10 in a row before losing to Arizona in the semifinals of the Pac 12 Tournament last Friday. They've lost only four games all season and have the top scoring offense in the entire country (3rd in efficiency). That all being said, there are question marks. We've seen teams w/ the most "NBA ready" prospect flame out before. Plus, rumors of HC Steve Alford leaving for the Indiana job do the team no favors whatsoever. Alford was asked about it - a lot - yesterday and this could be a major distraction. On the court, I worry about the Bruins' defense, or rather lack of it. They are 75th in defensive efficiency, which is obviously not good. I think that prevents them from building any kind of significant lead here. Speaking to the market being too high on UCLA, they are 0-3 ATS their L3 games. 

After pulling off so many close wins, I see Kent State's destiny as likely being a close loss here. The team is 9-4 ATS as a dog coming into tonight. That's with EIGHT outright upsets. There's no denying that this will be the toughest opponent that Kent State has faced all season. But I believe they'll be able to score plenty. They come in averaging 76.9 PPG and given UCLA's poor defense, I can see them exceeding that average here. Not only that, but UCLA isn't exactly 100% healthy right now. Ball is dealing w/ a sprained thumb. Forward Ike Anigbogu injured his foot in practice earlier this week and may not play. TJ Leaf is also dealing with an ankle. After a day where we saw virtually no upsets, expect this one to be a lot closer than the experts think! 8* Kent State

10* Over Michigan St/Miami FL (9:20 ET): This is the lowest total on the board for Friday by a somewhat significant margin. Given that Miami has gone Under in six straight games, perhaps that should not be too surprising. (Michigan St has gone Under three straight times as well). But I feel the respective Under streaks have created a situation where the O/U line is simply too low. At the end of February, MSU posted B2B games of 80+ points. Miami, which went cold down the stretch, is due to improve offensively and this is not the usual well-rounded team that Tom Izzo is bringing to the Big Dance. The Canes should be able to score on Sparty. Looking through recent O/U lines - on both sides - it's pretty clear that this is a really low number for both. Take the Over.

There's a very good chance that this closes as the lowest total for any Michigan State game this season. There have been just two times all season where they've seen an O/U line that was sub-130. Both games - vs. Wisconsin and Rutgers - went Over and did so easily. In fact, the Spartans ended up turning in two of their better offensive performances of the entire season in those games! Now, they were NOT at their offensive best in a Big 10 Tourney loss to Minnesota last Friday (shot just 32.8% including 6 of 30 from 3-pt range). But that was their second game in as many days and I have them bouncing back from that season worst performance. This is a team that shoots 46.8% for the year and averages 71.7 PPG. The Over is 10-4 this season when they're a dog plus 11-3 the L14 times they've seen a total in the 120 to 129.5 pt range. 

Likewise, Miami did not shoot the ball well down the stretch. Over the L5 games, they averaged just 57.6 points per game on 40.2% shooting. That's pretty awful. But note they are averaging 69.4 PPG on 45.3% shooting for the year. So, like Michigan State, we should see some regression to the mean here. There is no denying that the Hurricanes have been an Under team this year (20-8 in all games!), but this number is also way low from their perspective. In fact, there's been only one total lower all season and that came against Virginia, who is the top defensive team in the country. Looking through the season to date, you see a lot of totals in the high 130's and 140's. There's value here. I look for both offenses to improve here from their late season swoons. 10* Over Michigan St/Miami FL

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): While they've fallen to fourth in the Eastern Conference pecking order, I think it's fair to say that the Raptors have been - for the most part - undervalued since the Kyle Lowry injury. I say that knowing full well that they were routed last night - at home - by Oklahoma City. But even so, their efficiency rating remains the best in the Eastern Conference! Yes, even slightly better than Cleveland. Tonight, the Raptors find themselves as underdogs in Detroit. The Pistons are a team that has been consistently OVERvalued in the marketplace this year, even though their home record remains pretty good. But they've dropped two in a row this week, losing to Cleveland and Utah handily. Taking the points w/ Toronto is the way to go here.

These teams last met right before the All-Star Break, in Toronto, and the Pistons actually emerged victorious. They were 6.5-pt dogs in a 102-101 victory. How they pulled that upset off is somewhat head-scratching considering the Raptors shot 50% from the field, including 8 of 16 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Detroit was shot just 42.9% including 8 of 31 from three-point range! (The Pistons were better from the FT line and that may have been the difference in a one-point game). But the bottom line is that Toronto "should" have won considering they held a 16-pt lead going into the fourth quarter. I'm willing to bet that game is still on the players' mind and they'll treat this as a big revenge spot. I'm also willing to "brush aside" last night's loss as all that did was create more value on the Raptors. 

Detroit is not a great shooting team (28th in true shooting percentage) and they are just 23rd in offensive efficiency. Even w/o Lowry, I favor Toronto in a shootout as they average over 107 PPG for the year and are 4th in offensive efficiency. The last two games we've seen the Pistons' offensive struggles come to the forefront. Particularly in Wednesday's 97-83 home loss to the Jazz. Tuesday against Cleveland, the defense was carved up as the Cavs shot an insane 85% from the floor in the first quarter! Three of the Pistons' last five games have resulted in a double digit losses. This is a team that has been outscored over the course of the season. While a good home team, I'm just not sure they deserve to be favored against Toronto even though the Raptors don't have Lowry. DeMarre Carroll is back in the Toronto lineup now. Note Detroit has trailed at the end of the first quarter in 9 of their last 11 games. 8* Toronto

10* Creighton (4:30 ET): The market sure seems like it's not a fan of the Blue Jays here. I can think of two reasons why that is. The first is they lost starting PG Mo Watson to a season ending injury. But that happened some time ago (back in January) and they've been able to manage relatively fine. In fact, they just made it to the Big East Final against Villanova and beat a couple of NCAA Tourney teams (Xavier, Providence) along the way. The second has to do with their opponent. Rhode Island is fresh off winning the A-10 Tournament, which took them off the bubble and guaranteed a spot in this event. But there's certainly a bit of "recency bias" involved in the public backing the Rams so strongly here. I'll fade the line move and go w/ what I feel has been the better team all season.

Creighton was a Top 10 team earlier this season, so this certainly appears to be a "buy low" situation. Granted, their offensive efficiency has dipped some w/o Watson. But they still rank 31st nationally in that department. They were 18-1 SU prior to the Watson injury, but just 7-8 SU since. But I view this situation as similar to the one we saw w/ Xavier (who I played!) yday. The wins over Xavier and Providence in the Big East Tourney show that the Blue Jays seem to have adjusted to life post-Watson. Besides, the team likely has a new star on the horizon in the form of 7' freshman center Justin Patton, who made 70% of his FG attempts in the Big East Tourney including a dominant 10 of 13 effort against Xavier. There are also eight different players in the rotation that shoot at least 34 percent from three-point range. 

While Creighton is somewhat far removed from its top 10 ranking, there is no denying that Rhode Island is currently at its peak for the season. The Rams have won eight straight. But before the A-10 Tournament began, there was some question over whether or not this team would even make the field of 68. I'd preach caution in how much stock you put into LW's run. They only had to beat one NCAA Tournament team (VCU) as they were the beneficiaries of top seed Dayton getting upset by Davidson. In fact, VCU is the only Tourney team URI has beaten during this eight-game run of theirs and VCU had nothing to play for in Sunday's final. The Rams lost to Fordham, at home, last month. I should also point out that the Big East is simply a much stronger league than the A-10. To me, this one is "all about value" as I feel the Rams (now favored) are being viewed in far too favorable terms. 10* Creighton

8* Florida State (9:20 ET): Florida Gulf Coast is another of those trendy upset picks for Thursday. I can only assume that has a lot to do w/ the famous "Dunk City" run that the program had (as a 15-seed) back in 2013. But the problem is that no one is left from that team, including the coach (Andy Enfield now at USC). While this team did run through the Atlantic Sun w/ relative ease, I think they're being overvalued here. Florida State is getting little respect despite a second place finish in the ACC and a massive size advantage. In fact, the Seminoles are the tallest team in the entire field. That height advantage should prove critical here as unless FGCU gets red-hot from distance, they're going to be "one and done" on a lot of possessions. Lay the points. 

Typically, the way an upset unfolds this time of year is that the underdog gets hot from three-point range. Well, unfortunately for FGCU, they shoot just 28% from three-point range. Therefore, they tend to shoot a lot of two-pointers. Problem there is that Florida State is as good at defending two-point field goal attempts as any team in the country. They're also good at forcing turnovers. The vast majority of the FGCU offense goes through 6'2" PG Brandon Goodwin. A player of that size creating his own offense against the 'Noles seems unlikely. Outside of Goodwin, the Eagles just don't have a ton of offensive threats. To summarize, it will be much more difficult to score against the Noles than you're average Atlantic Sun team. I see FGCU not even coming close to their 79.2 PPG average. 

The talent level on Florida State is quite underrated. Likely NBA lottery pick Jonathan Isaac and 7'1" senior Michael Ojo should dominate the interior tonight. Then there is Dwayne Bacon, who might be one of the most talented players in the entire tournament. His three-point shooting has improved tremendously this year. There are only nine teams in the country that rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and the Seminoles are one of them. Despite a mediocre finish (4-4 SU L8 games), this is clearly Leonard Hamilton's best team ever in Talahassee. Their last two losses were both by five or less to the two ACC Tourney Finalists, Duke and Notre Dame. I'm not worried about that. Too much talent for FGCU, who will not be making any kind of run in this year's Tournament. 8* Florida State

10* Memphis (7:35 ET): The Grizzlies picked up a much needed win Monday when they beat Milwaukee 113-93 at home. They had previously lost five in a row, failing to cover every game. Then they won again last night, winning 98-91 at Chicago. Tonight they get a shot at revenge against the last team to beat them, Atlanta. I view the Hawks as one of the more overrated teams in the league right now as despite being seven games above .500, they've actually been outscored over the course of the season! They've covered only two of their last eight games themselves, so the role of favorite doesn't serve them particularly well. In fact, they're just 18-27 ATS laying points this season. I have Memphis rated as the better team here, so I'll take the points in what I expect to be an outright upset.

We often see teams being undervalued in the second of back to back games. Case in point, Memphis is 10-4 SU/9-5 ATS in that situation. While shooting has been a bit of a concern lately (not against Milwaukee), it shouldn't be here as Atlanta is giving up 106.1 PPG here at home. Defending the three-point line has been the primary issue for the Hawks as they are third worst in the league at doing so. Monday night, they allowed San Antonio to sink 16 three-point field goals. Meanwhile, I like the Grizzlies' defense. They just held Chicago to 91 points on 37.4% shooting last night and led the entire second half. This is a very important game for the Grizz, who are currently seventh in the Western Conference standings. They'll return home for their own date w/ the Spurs Saturday, then head back out on the road for four games, two of which are against San Antonio and Golden State. 

Memphis never led last Saturday at home against Atlanta in what was a bad shooting night (37.8%). Interestingly, they were 6.5-point favorites for that game, so there's been somewhat of a dramatic shift by the oddsmakers for tonight's rematch. I believe they've overadjusted. Certainly, the 17-point loss had to have some effect, but it was just one game. Unlike Atlanta, the Grizzlies have outscored their opponents this season both overall and on a per possession basis. They are 4th in the league in points allowed, so I don't envision Atlanta scoring 107 pts or shooting above 50% like they did the last time. Also helping to inflate this line is the fact the Hawks have been off for the last two days. But sometimes that can result in a team coming out flat. I look for the road dog to exact revenge here. 10* Memphis

10* Xavier (6:50 ET): For awhile there, it almost looked as if Xavier might play their way OUT of the NCAA Tournament. An ill-timed six-game losing skid likely did them no favors in the eyes of the committee, but there's nothing that a couple of games against Big East doormat DePaul can't cure. The Musketeers won both of those games and then pulled an upset of Butler in the Conference Tourney, so here they are. Meanwhile, Maryland is a team that the numbers have not liked for most of this season and neither have I. Their 24-8 SU overall record is largely owed to a rather fortuitous record in close games. But the Terps started to fade down the stretch, covering only one of their last six games and they were bounced from the Big 10 Tourney by Northwestern in their first game. As you can see, this game isn't being priced like your "normal" 6 vs. 11 matchup and rightfully so. I'll call for Xavier to pull the minor "upset" as the better team is getting points.

The Xavier losing streak I spoke of earlier happened to coincide w/ losing Edmond Sumner for the year. They actually won their first three games w/o him, but then came the six losses in a row. Still, beating Butler and playing Creighton tough in the Big East Tourney showed me that this team will no quietly. They still rebound the ball tremendously - at both ends of the court. They also still have Trevon Blueitt, who averages 18.0 points per game. In the loss to Creighton last Friday, Xavier actually led 37-31 at the half. They lost on a last second three-pointer. But being able to almost win despite Creighton shooting 54.7% from the field (13 of 20 from 3-pt range!) should tell you something. I seriously doubt that Maryland can match those kind of numbers.

Maryland was great when priced as the underdog this season, going 10-1-1 ATS. But they were just 7-11 ATS as favorites. Granted, they are the slimmest of chalk here, but the trends are still worth noting. Melo Trimble carries the Terps, who are dealing w/ a key injury of their own, that being the season-ending ankle injury suffered by Michal Cekovsky. The Terps lost four times by eight or more points down the stretch and in three of those games they were the favorite. It's hard to like a team that turns the ball over as much as they do. They are also just 1-4 ATS their L5 NCAA Tourney games. Compare that to Xavier, who is 4-1 (3-0 in 1st Rd). Xavier also won all four times this season it played with five or more days rest! 10* Xavier

10* Florida (3:10 ET): All week long, we've heard a lot of people that haven't watched East Tennessee State play talk about how good East Tennessee State is. Granted, they were the best team in the SoCon this year (finished in three-way tie for 1st), but Florida is a bad draw for the 13th seeded Buccaneers. The Gators will simply be happy to face an opponent besided Vanderbilt as the Commies upset them not only in the regular season finale, but in the SEC Tourney as well. But those B2B outright losses have served to create some pretty significant value on the favorite in this spot. The key here will be ETSU's strength (3-pt shooting) getting neutralized by a Florida defense that does a phenomenal job of limiting three-point shots. I always say to beware of the "trendy underdog" this time of year and the bottom line is this line should be higher. Lay the points. 

The last time a SoCon team won a NCAA Tournament game was Davidson back in '08. That team of course had a guy by the name of Steph Curry. East Tennessee State's last Tourney win was back in '92. They are 2-10 SU all-time in the Big Dance. What will decide this year's trip is three-point shooting. ETSU shoots an impressive 38.3% from behind the arc, led by TJ Cromer, who made nine himself in a semifinal win over Samford last week. But Cromer carries a lot of the load, perhaps too much, and one player cannot beat Florida by himself. Especially not w/ the Gators allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from three-point range. What's really impressive is that they allow only 18 3-pt ATTEMPTS per game. Limiting ETSU looks, particular Cromer's, will be huge here.

ETSU is pretty good at forcing turnovers. But their biggest problem is their propensity to also give the ball away. This will be a major issue against Florida. Yes, losing John Egbunu for the rest of the season hurts - both literally and figuratively. But the Gators have a statistical profile of a team much better than its overall record. Not only are they 4th in defensive efficiency, but they are a very respectable 30th in offensive efficiency. ESTU is 44th and 109th respectively. Florida is actually top 10 overall in the KenPom ratings. This is a great "buy low" opportunity as too many people are on the dog. At no point this season did the Gators lose three consecutive games. 10* Florida.

8* Princeton (12:15 ET): Even after B2B trips to the Elite 8, Notre Dame's Mike Brey still has the worst Tourney ATS record of any HC in the field at 5-11. With his Fighting Irish fresh off a run to the ACC Tournament Final, I feel they may be ripe for the picking in their first round matchup w/ Ivy League Champ Princeton. Sure, Princeton played through Sunday, winning the 1st ever Ivy League Tournament (2 games). But this Tigers team has not lost a game since falling at Monmouth all the way back on December 20th! So, needless to say, they'll be a "tough out." This is a 5-12 matchup and I'm sure you know the history of the pairing. It always seems as if there's an early upset on the first day of the tourney, often in a 5-12 matchup. Just last year, Princeton's rival Yale pulled the upset against Baylor. Time for a little deja vu? Take the points.

It's a 19-game win streak overall for Princeton and certainly it has included some close calls. None moreso than Saturday's win vs. Penn in their Tournament semifinal. It was a road game for the Ivy's top team and they trailed virtually the entire way. But after a last second tip-in forced OT, the Tigers were not only able to win the game, but also steal the cover (I was on them!). They followed that by dispatching of Yale 71-59 as seven-point chalk. Overall, they finished conference play at 16-0 SU, winning by an average margin of 13.1 PPG. Now, obviously it's a big jump in class to face Notre Dame. But this team can shoot the three-pointer well (38.3%) and they can defend (allow only 61.5 PPG). In conference play, they forced a turnover on an astounding 23.2% of opponents' possessions. Playing at a slower tempo should also serve them well here.

Notre Dame may have finished second in the ACC, but they were certainly NOT the conference's second best team. In fact, I don't even consider them in the top five! Kudos to the job Brey has done in South Bend, but an ankle injury to Benzie Colson is cause for concern even though the starting forward is listed as probable to play here. Colson is his team's leading scored and rebounder and the Irish are not a team that rebounds particularly well. Rebounding is probably Princeton's one weakness, but I don't think they have to worry about the Irish exploiting it. The bigger problem for ND though is that I'm not sold on their ability to defend the three-point line. Also, when factoring out home games, it is Princeton that has the better SU record. An outright upset is a very real possibility here. 8* Princeton

10* Providence (9:10 ET): I don't really understand the intial line move for this contest. Check that. I understand it; but don't agree with it. The storyline here is in last year's NCAA Tournament (Rd of 64), Providence beat USC 70-69 on a last second layup. Now USC gets its chance for revenge. But this - to me - is clearly one of those times where the revenge angle is being overrated. It certainly seems to be overshadowing the fact that the Trojans are probably the least deserving at-large team in the field. They've dropped five of eight and one would have to go back to the end of January to find the last time they beat a team that didn't finish in the bottom three of the Pac 12! Providence was lethal in the underdog role this season, going 12-4 ATS. Take the points.

In last year's meeting, USC shot much better from the field, but was only 7 of 13 from the FT line and that cost them. They returned four starters from that team and opened the season by winning their first 14 games. But few, myself included, took them very seriously. Since that 14-0 SU start, the Trojans are just 10-9 SU and, again, six of those wins came at the expense of the bottom of their league. It's telling that despite the 24-9 SU record, most don't even consider this to be a top 50 team. Their "luck rating" according to KenPom is one of the highest among all NCAA Tournament teams as they went 9-4 SU in games decided by seven points or less. Might it be another heartbreaking end to the season? 

Meanwhile, one could make the case that Providence shouldn't have to play this extra game. They went 3-1 SU this year against Marquette and Xavier, two other Big East teams in the field. Comparing conferences, the Big East may not be as top heavy as the Pac 12, but it was a deeper league and probably better overall. In fact, no other conference in America sent a higher percentage of its teams to the NCAA Tournament than did the Big East (7 of 10). The Friars should be able to exploit a leaky Trojans defense which gives up 77.8 PPG away from home. HC Ed Cooley called his team's performance in the Big East Tourney against Creighton "lackadaisical" and I would agree as the Friars didn't shoot well and turned the ball over 22 times. Still, they actually led at halftime. The turnover issue is usually not a problem for them and like I just said, they should shoot better here given the number of points per game USC typically allows. 10* Providence

8* Portland (8:05 ET): The last five times the Blazers and Spurs have met the latter has won by at least an eight-point margin. Oddsmakers expect that trend to continue tonight after Portland was blown out last night in New Orleans. But I feel that we can use Tuesday's score to our advantage here and grab what looks to be a somewhat generous number. Prior to last night's debacle, the Blazers had won five of six, one of those coming at Oklahoma City. I can't see them getting blown out two nights in a row. Take the points.

The Spurs have been as steady as ever and have now made it a race w/ Golden State to see who finishes with the best record in the league. They took advantage of the Warriors resting stars Saturday night, beating them handily, 107-85. Then came a 107-99 win over Atlanta on Monday. But there are some issues right now in the Alamo, namely the very serious situation w/ LaMarcus Aldridge, who remains out due to heart arrhythmia. Despite beating Atlanta, they committed 23 turnovers. Three-point shooting really decided that game as the Spurs went 16 of 34 from behind the arc while the Hawks were just 6 of 22. I'm well aware of the Spurs' defensive exploits, but Portland is a far more formidable offensive foe. Also, San Antonio is just 2-6 ATS in March. They are just 3-7 ATS the L10 times laying double digits at the betting window.

Portland scored a season-low 77 pts last night and shot just 30.3% from the floor. Even though they are facing the Spurs, offensive improvement is a virtual lock tonight. This is a team that averages 108.4 PPG, mind you. The fact this is a national TV game will only further emphasize the need to not be embarrassed again. Not that the Blazers should need any more motivation; they currently trail Denver by 2.5 games for the final playoff spot in the West. Again, they'd been playing well of late, albeit against some pretty bad teams. Still though, this is a spot where you can take advantage of public perception. An unrested team coming off a blowout loss, playing on the road, is almost always undervalued. That is the case here. 8* Portland

8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): Don't ask me to shed any tears for Jim Boeheim and Syracuse not being included in the Field of 68. When you post only two victories away from home ALL SEASON, your chances of making an NCAA Tournament run seem pretty slim to me. As far as the Orange's motivation for this year's NIT, there's two ways this can go. One is that the disappointment of being left out of the Big Dance will lead to a poor effort. We've seen that before from team's in their position. Or, they could take their frustration out on a lesser opponent. Given that tonight's game takes place in the Carrier Dome, I'll side with option #2. The Cuse is 16-3 SU this year in the Carrier Dome (+15.3 PPG) and one could very well question the motivation of their opponent as well. Lay the points.

UNC Greensboro is the opponent for Syracuse in this 1st round NIT matchup. The Spartans wound up being the top seed in the SoCon (Southern Conference) Tournament, but only because of a tiebreaker. They were actually a very short favorite in the semifinal round vs. Wofford, a game they won by only four. Then, they were notably a dog against East Tennessee State in the final game, which they lost 79-74. Having been so close to an automatic bid, only to come up short, leaves this side with a feeling of disappointment as well. I don't think a trip to the vaunted Carrier Dome is enough to erase that. Yes, UNC Greensboro had won nine in a row before losing to E Tenn St last Monday. But that was against much lesser competition and several of the wins came by slight margins.

Looking at this line, it seems as if Syracuse's home court advantage is not being factored in at all. They covered 11 of their 14 lined home games during the regular season, including outright upsets of NCAA Tournament teams Duke, Virginia and Florida State. They average 80.5 PPG here on 48.9% shooting. They also get it done on the defensive end as well, holding visitors to just 65.2 PPG on 38.6% shooting. I can see UNC Greensboro struggling against Boeheim's zone and it's a big step up in class going from the SoCon to the ACC. I expect the Orange to play w/ a chip on their collective shoulder here. 8* Syracuse

8* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): Unless someone has hard evidence that Georgia Southern will be deliberately tanking this evening, I have no unearthly idea why this line would be so low. The Eagles were 10-2 SU at home this year, averaging 84.3 PPG and outscoring opponents by a margin of 12.6 points per game. Playing in the Sun Belt, they typically faced much better competition than what they'll see here from Utah Valley State, a team that hails from the weak WAC. Also, if you want to question Georgia Southern's motivation here, note that the come into the CBI on a three-game losing streak. They were embarrassed by Troy in the SBC Tourney, so I believe tonight they'll be looking to atone for that performance. They will. Lay the points.

Utah Valley State did not even finish the regular season w/ a winning record, in conference play or overall. They were a middle of the road team in a bad league. Two of the three teams the Wolverines finished ahead of - UT Rio Grande Valley and Chicago State - you've probably never heard of and they are absolutely atrocious. Heck, there's a good chance you've never heard of Utah Valley State! There were three decent teams in the WAC and the Wolverines went 1-6 SU against them. By far, their "crowning achievement" in the regular season was an 84-72 upset of New Mexico State in Las Cruces. But this is a bad defensive team on the road (76.6 PPG allowed) and they don't shoot well at all from three-point range. 

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has no issue scoring here in Statesboro. They haven't played here since a tough loss to UT Arlington back on 2.20, a game in which the Eagles led for much of the second half only to fall apart late. They rebounded w/ a win (as 7-pt dogs) at Arkansas State, but have since lost three straight. Two were on the road, at Ark Little Rock and Georgia State (were a dog in both games) and then came an ugly 90-70 loss to Troy in the conference tourney. That 20-pt loss was the Eagles' worst of the season, save for a loss at Minnesota back in early December. Like I said earlier, they'll want to atone for it. Troy shot a blistering 60% from the field in that game, including 14 of 22 from three-point range, something that UVSU is simply not capable of doing. 8* Georgia Southern

8* Over NC Central/UC Davis (6:40 ET): Both games went Over yday and I think this battle of 16 seeds will follow suit. For those who may be unfamiliar, NC Central is the regular season/tournament champion of the MEAC, which is not a strong league. UC Davis hails from the Big West, which also had a bad year. UC Davis was not the regular season champ in their league, but upset UC Irvine in the Tournament Final to get here. Both teams are actually pretty stout defensively, but then again, those numbers need to be taken w/ a grain of salt due to the weak competition each faced. UC Davis, in particular, is due for an uptick in overall scoring after a relatively ugly series of results recently. With both teams averaging over 70 PPG, Over is the call here.

Though they did lose the final two regular season games, NC Central really did dominate the MEAC this year. The Eagles played six lined games during the course of the year and covered them all. That includes a 3-0 ATS performance in the confernece tournament where they posted two wins of 30+ pts and held opponents below 35% shooting. But while they hold opponents to below 40% shooting for the year, NC Central faced a lot of bad offenses during the course of the year. Though no one will ever confuse UC Davis for UCLA, the Aggies are a more prolific offensive team compared to most MEAC teams. They average over 70 PPG and while recently that average has been down, that's due to two games vs. the same opponent (UC Irvine).

UC Davis' last six games all stayed Under the total, which obviously played a significant role in this number opening up so low. During the course of the season, they regularly saw totals in the 140's. On Feb 23, they beat CS Northridge, 96-85, scoring 56 pts in the first half. So this team is capable of putting points on the board. The same holds true for NC Central. While the vast majority of Eagles' games didn't have lines, we still have scores to go off of and they dropped 95 pts in their first conf tourney game. They average 75.2 PPG for the year. Again, the impressive defensive number have to be taken w/ a grain of salt due to the competition they faced. UC Davis is by no means a great three-point shooting team, but they should easily top the horrendous 29% average posted by NC Central opponents this year from behind the arc. Look for this one to sneak Over. 8* Over NC Central/UC Davis

8* Kansas State (9:10 ET): Some "good ol' fashioned" morning steam caught my eye for this one. Truth be told, when this "first four" matchup was announced, my lean was to Kansas State anyway. Some sharp money showing up on the Wildcats Tuesday morning only confirmed my line of thinking. The upset of Baylor in the Big 12 quarterfinals is probably what solidified KSU's place in the field of 68 and it should also be pointed out that they led a very good West Virginia team most of the way in the semis before losing by just one point. They are clearly the superior defensive team in this matchup and the fact that Bruce Weber has been here many times before matters as well. Wake Forest coach Danny Manning has tourney experience, both as a player and as the HC at Tulsa (2014), but not w/ his current group, which largely overachieved this season.

Manning's first two Wake Forest teams went just 24-38 overall including 7-29 SU in ACC play. This year, they jumped to 19-13 and 9-9. Despite losing to Va Tech in the second round of the conference tourney (as three-point favorites), they were able to get in. I'm not sure I agree with their inclusion though. Granted, the ACC is probably the toughest league in America. They do have a win over Louisville, but in Winston-Salem. Overall, they were just 3-7 SU vs. ACC teams that made the NCAA Tournament and only one of those wins was away from home (at Va Tech in reg season finale). Defensively, this may be one of the worst teams in the entire field. The Demon Deacons allow 77.9 PPG and only seven of the 68 teams are worse in terms of efficiency. Six of those are seeded 14th or worse.

Kansas State, meanwhile, gives up only 66.9 PPG and is top 27 in the country in defensive efficiency. Compared to Wake Forest's 159th place ranking, that's a massive edge. Now Wake is the better offensive team for sure, but it's defense that matters more this time of year. Not only did the Wildcats beat the likes of West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Baylor (twice) this year, but they also played Kansas tough twice, losing both matchups by three pts or less. Yes, KSU had a losing conference record, but they are the better team here. 8* Kansas State

8* New York (7:35 ET): The Knicks are a disgraceful outfit and things may have reached a new nadir w/ a loss at league-worst Brooklyn Sunday. But there is some value here, taking points against an Indiana team that is certainly not as good as its record shows. The Pacers are currently sixth in the East, two games above .500, but have been outscored over the course of the season and on a per possession basis. They did just record a big 102-98 win over Miami, but that was at home and they failed to cover as 6.5-pt favorites. The road has not been particularly kind to the Pacers in 2016-17 as they are just 11-22 STRAIGHT UP. Thus, they seem like a pretty shaky favorite, even against a team like the Knicks. Take the points.

In another lost season under this sad Phil Jackson regime, the Knicks have experienced plenty losing streaks. The current one marks the fifth time this season that they've lost at least three in a row. But the good news is that they are 6-2 ATS coming off three or more straight losses. Only twice have they lost more than three in a row all season. There was a six-game slide wrapped around the New Year and then they dropped four in a row in early February. The current streak saw them drop all three games on the road. At home, they've been a lot more competitive this year, going 18-14 ATS and being outscored by only one point per game. Surprisingly, they are nearly identical to Indiana in terms of offensive efficiency overall.

Defensively, the Knicks do have problems (gave up 120 pts to Brooklyn!) but the Pacers are hardly much better on that end of the floor. On the road, Indiana gives up an average of 108.4 PPG, which helps explain the lousy record. The team's last road game saw them score only 85 points in a loss at Milwaukee. They're also just 1-2 SU vs. the Knicks this year including a loss at home back in January. They also lost here in MSG, 118-111, back in December. You would have to go all the way back to early February to find the last time the Pacers won B2B games. Not surprisingly, the team has not performed well as a road favorite, going 3-6 straight up and against the spread. 8* New York

8* Campbell (7:00 ET): This is an "off the radar" game in a tournament few will even pay attention to. But the matchup offers tremendous value. Campbell made a nice run in the Big South Tourney, getting all the way to the final game before bowing out to Winthrop. It was by no means an impressive regular season for the Fighting Camels (yes, that's their nickname!) as they finished just 7-11 SU in league play. But in the tournament, they pulled an impressive upset of UNC Asheville, who was arguably the Big South's best team. I think that the three wins they posted in the conference tourney will give this team incredible confidence going into the CIT. Meanwhile, Houston Baptist had to be somewhat disappointed after their "one and done" showing in the Southland. I do not think the road team deserves to be favored in this spot. 

Houston Baptist had been rolling going into the Southland Tourney. The Huskies had won nine straight to claim the league's 4-seed. But they were upset by Sam Houston State in the quarterfinals, at home, 63-59. They certainly picked a bad time to have their weakest offensive showing of the season. Worse yet, they wasted one of their better defensive efforts. The Huskies are not stout, especially away from home where they allow 81.5 PPG. They have just four "true" road wins all season (11 losses).  Looking back through the team's nine game win streak, you see a lot of home games and a general absence of the Southland's best teams. I put little stock into the streak as the team was just 8-12 SU prior to it beginning.

Campbell was by no means a dominant home team during the regular season, but they are clearly the better defensive squad in this matchup. They give up just 69.4 PPG at home and they've held three of their previous six opponents under 60 points. That's what you look for this time of year. The CIT is hardly a "marquee event," but I think the Fighting Camels will treat it as such. They have to be pleased just to be playing at all right now. Meanwhile, I think Houston Baptist is still smarting from its early exit in the conference tourney. Look out for Campbell guard Chris Clemons, who scored 51 pts in the upset over UNC Asheville. He is the nation's third leading scorer (24.5 PPG) and very well could be the difference maker in this one. 8* Campbell

10* Under Lakers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): The Lakers and Nuggets are the two worst defensive teams in the league (according to efficiency numbers) and have combined to go Over the total the last seven times they've played. But I'll go "contrarian" here with the Under. Note I'm not being a contrarian w/o cause. The number here is really high as, generally speaking, we've seen scoring explode league-wide this season. But even as bad as these two have been defensively, their total PPG averages really don't come close to exceeding our O/U line for tonight. Take the Under.

Denver has actually stayed Under in 8 of its past 11 games including five of the last six. They've turned in B2B quality efforts on the defensive end, holding both Boston and Sacramento below 100 points. Both were much-needed wins as they continue to try and hold onto the eight seed in the Western Conference. In fact, the last four times the Nuggets have won, they've held the opponent below 100 points! Now that's been somewhat uncommon for the league's top Over team, who is also a perfect 6-0 Over this season in games where the total is 230 pts or higher. But we're starting to see the team's reputation catch up with them w/ the recent rash of Unders. It should also be noted that Under has shown a slight profit this year in games where Denver is favored!

The Lakers have generally been a disaster, losing 36 of their last 46 games after a 10-10 start. But they did actually win a game Thursday (I was on them!) against Phoenix. But they quickly reverted back to their losing ways yesterday by falling at home to Philadelphia, 118-116 as five-point chalk. They are now 1-9 SU the L10 games, a stretch that predates the All-Star Break. As a result, HC Luke Walton has decided to shuffle his lineup. Rightly so, but expect some growing pains at the offensive end in the interim. Before yday's loss, the Lakers had stayed Under in four of the previous games. They average only 101.7 PPG on the road. Too many things have to "break right" for a game to go Over a total this high. Denver's certainly done it before, but not here. 10* Under Lakers/Nuggets

8* Chicago (7:05 ET): The Bulls were blown out again yday, this time in Boston, 100-80 as 7.5-pt dogs. It was their fifth straight SU loss and non-cover. They've been a dog or pick em in all five losses, four of which have now been by double digits. Yet, it's somewhat interesting that Charlotte is getting the same amount of respect here that a superior Boston team did yday. Granted, the Bulls are w/o rest, but that alone is not enough to justify this number, IMO. Now, I have stumped for the Hornets several times since the All-Star Break, claiming them to be better than their overall record says they are. I still believe that. But this number is still too high considering how desperate Chicago is likely to be tonight. Take the points.

Charlotte is also off a loss here, theirs coming Saturday in overtime to New Orleans. It was here at home and they gave up 125 points. Even w/ OT, that's a lot of points to be giving up to a team like the Pelicans. Though they continue to outscore their opponents on a per possession basis, the Hornets remain eight games below .500 and 3.5 off the playoff pace in the Eastern Conference. They are actually two games back of the Bulls, which should tell you "all you need to know" about this line. The last time these teams played (January 2nd), Chicago prevailed 118-111. That was in the Windy City, but it's not as if the Hornets are some kind of dominant home team. They're outscoring opponents by just 4.2 PPG here and are 14-18 at the betting window.

This will be the third time this season that the Bulls are playing B2B road games w/o rest. They are 2-0 SU/ATS previously. Having not topped 95 points in any game in March, clearly the offense needs to get in gear. It should tonight considering the Hornets have allowed an average of 109.8 points the last nine games. There is simply no way that Chicago will play as poorly as they did Sunday afternoon where they scored just nine first quarter points in Boston and missed 19 of their first 22 shots (started 0 for 12!). Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade, supposedly the anchors of the team, combined to shoot 6 of 22 from the floor. Maybe the Bulls don't win here, but they at least cover. 8* Chicago

8* Cleveland (9:05 ET): This is a rare opportunity to grab this many points w/ LeBron James in the Cleveland lineup. Yes, the Cavs are just 2-7 ATS when priced as a dog this season. But the vast majority (all?) of those games came w/ LeBron out of the lineup. Helping to inflate this line vs. the Houston Rockets is the fact the NBA Champs find themselves playing the second game of a back to back. Last night saw them snap a rare three-game losing streak by beating the Magic in Orlando, 116-104 as nine-point road faves. Houston is obviously a tougher place to play than Orlando plus the Cavs haven't had much success here through the year, LeBron or otherwise. They're just 3-14 ATS the previous 17 visits. But tonight, the spread is too high. Back on November 1st, the Cavs beat the Rockets 128-120 in Cleveland. They were 9.5-pt favorites for that one. Take the points.

Houston is off an impressive win in Chicago as they crushed the Bulls 115-94. They were actually six-point favorites in that one. While I'm not disputing that the Rockets should be favored (I have them #3 in my power rankings) in this spot, again, it seems as if they're being overvalued. Coming off a double digit win, the team is just 11-15 ATS this year. James Harden did injure his ankle in the game vs. Chicago and while he's still expected to play here, he won't be 100%. It was a rare strong effort on the defensive end for the Rockets in Chicago (held the Bulls to 94 pts on 38.8% shooting). But, of course, it would be ridiculous to compare the Bulls to the Cavs offensively. Cleveland comes in ranked #3 in the league in offensive efficiency (Chicago #24), right behind Houston (who is #2). 

The fact the Rockets allow 108 PPG should lead to a high scoring game here. Clearly that's what the oddsmakers are expecting by posting such a high O/U line. But it also means the margin for error for Houston as this large a favorite is rather slim. While the focus here will be on the Cavs' recent struggles, Houston is only 14-12 SU since Jan 11 and had lost B2B games themselves before winning in the Windy City. Cleveland's defense isn't exactly sterling, but they'll score enough to stay within the generous number and I certainly give them a shot at winning outright. 8* Cleveland

10* Troy (2:00 ET): For a third time this year, Troy will get a chance at beating Texas State. This time, obviously, the stakes are much higher. I won't be putting a ton of stock into the fact that Texas State won both regular season meetings as each game was decided by just four points. Neither contest saw Troy shoot the ball particularly well. They had a halftime lead in San Marcos last month, but obviously could not hold on. Saturday was a tumultouous day in the Sun Belt w/ the top two seeds in the conference tourney falling. That had to send the oddsmakers scrambling and as a result, I believe they've set a line that's far too low.

Texas State took out regular season champ UT-Arlington yday, but that comes w/ a caveat. The top seeded Mavericks played w/o their second leading scorer. While it turned into a pretty lopsided final (Texas St won 83-62), that was due to a rather significant shooting discrepancy, the likes of which I don't see repeating itself here. Texas State averages only 65.3 PPG away from home this year. Troy may have finished a game back of the Bobcats and had to play an additional game to get here. But they have actually outscored SBC foes by a larger margin of the course of the year. Also, the difference between third place and eighth place in this league was razor thin. Three teams tied for third at 11-7 while three more finished 10-8. 

While Texas State was turning in a virtual wire to wire lead against the league's reg season champ, Troy needed to come back from as many as 15 down to beat Georgia State. But they faced that deficit early (first half) and still wound up winning by 11 after outscoring the Panthers 46-26 in the second half. They pulled off the comeback despite not shooting well. They were just 42.6% for the game including 6 of 26 from three-point range and missed 14 of 36 FT attempts. Fortunately, they held Georgia State to 15 of 38 on two-point shot attempts. The Trojans are now 5-0 ATS on a neutral court this year. The third time will prove to be the charm here against Texas State. 10* Troy

10* Kentucky (1:00 ET): Another lethargic start led to a "closer than it should have been" final for Kentucky yday against Alabama. The Wildcats, who are gunning for a third straight SEC Tournament Title here, shot 52 percent from the field in Saturday's semifinal. But despite going 13 of 17 over the final six minutes, they were just 69% from the FT line. Still, they never relinquished the lead over the final 17 minutes and here they are. Given that they were outrebounded, outscored in the paint (almost 2:1!) and -13 in bench points, perhaps it should be considered impressive that they won by any margin at all. I'm going to lay the points here as UK is fortunate not to draw Florida or even Vanderbilt in the Tournament Final. Rather, it's Arkansas, a team that's overvalued after a surprise blowout yday.

Arkansas routed Vanderbilt Saturday, 76-62 and they led by more than the final margin for much of the second half. It was an impressive win considering the Razorbacks were slight underdogs in the contest. But remember they were playing Vandy a day removed from an OT win that was a late finish. Here, they've got the shorter turnaround compared to the opponent. The Hogs also stand to gain little from an upset of UK. Their lot is cast as they figure to be a middle seed (8-10) in the Big Dance next week. I do not expect the Razorbacks to play as well today, especially when it comes to shooting the ball (were 48% vs. Vandy).

The Razorbacks' tempo proved to be way too much for a Vandy team that was not only off an OT game the day prior, but also playing its third game in as many days. Kentucky is a different story. The Wildcats have the SEC's best defense and had held their previous five opponents to an average of 63.9 PPG before Alabama. Overall, the 'Cats have won 10 straight. They crushed Arkansas in Lexington earlier in the year, winning 97-71 as 17.5-pt favorites. There was no meeting in Fayatteville. It sure does seem as if the oddsmakers have overadjusted the line based on the result of that first matchup. 10* Kentucky

10* Over T'wolves/Bucks (8:05 ET): For much of the year, I've spent questioning my own personal power ratings on these two teams, who have consisently rated higher in efficiency than you might think. All of a sudden now, both Minnesota and Milwaukee are starting to make their relatively lofty rankings (T'wolves 14th, Bucks 10th) look accurate. The T'wolves are off a HUGE win last night as they beat Golden State. It was their sixth win in the last eight games (losses to Houston and San Antonio) and they're 8-0 ATS during that stretch. Not to be outdone, the Bucks are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five games. In addition to being hot at the betting window, both sides have also seen a lot of Unders come in recently (Both 7-1 last 8). I can't make a pick on the side here, but do see the respective Under streaks coming to an end as this total is just too low. Take the Over.

The Bucks are now eighth in the Eastern Conference following a 99-85 win over Indiana last night. That score seemingly doesn't put them in a great spot as they're just 4-17 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 85 pts or less. The Pacers were held to just 35 pts in the second half as a halftime deficit turned into a relatively comfortable win. Such a defensive performance is uncommon for the Bucks, who are 19th in the league in efficiency on that end of the floor. But they are 10th in offensive efficiency. In fact, Minnesota joins them in being top 11 in offensive efficiency, but also bottom 11 in defensive efficiency. When these teams met back in December, it was a 116-99 Minnesota win that went Over a total several points higher than this O/U line.

The T'wolves might still be 2.5 games back of eighth place in the West and needing to jump three teams. But I can make a pretty good case that this is definitely the eighth best team in the Conference. They're outscoring teams on a per possession basis, which is something Oklahoma City cannot claim. However, if I do see an issue here it's the fact they allow 106.8 PPG on the road while Milwaukee averages 107.1 PPG at home. Both teams' total PPG scored and allowed exceed this O/U line by several points. So just an "average" game from both would result in a pretty easy Over. Both being in the second game of a back to back should see some tired legs and thus lackluster defense. 10* Over T'wolves/Bucks

10* Connecticut (5:30 ET): Apparently, the oddsmakers don't see fit to give UConn any credit for this year's American Conference Tournament being held in nearby Hartford. This will be the third day in a row I'm rolling w/ the Huskies. Thursday, they did come up just shy as double digit faves against USF (did lead by 13 at the half), but last night I cashed in huge as they upset third-seeded Houston, 74-65 as five-point dogs. The American is considered to be two heavyweights (SMU & Cincinnati) that are locks for the NCAA Tournament and then "everyone else." UConn draws one of those two heavyweights today (Cincy), but given what we saw yday, they clearly have a shot due to being the de facto host this weekend. I'll take the points for a 2nd straight day w/ Kevin Ollie's team. 

Cincinnati also rolled in their quarterfinal matchup yday, beating overmatched Tulsa 80-61 as 15.5-pt chalk. The Bearcats have lost only two league games all season, at SMU and at UCF, and have little to play for here. Regardless of what happens over the next two days, they'll likely be a 4 or 5 seed in the Big Dance. Other than a possible "rubber match" with SMU, there's little motivation for this side. That can be a dangerous thing this time of year. Contrast that w/ UConn, who obviously must win the next two days in order to qualify for the field of 68. Adding to that motivation here is the Huskies have double revenge. They lost to the Bearcats by double digits twice during the regular season. I see the third time being the charm, at least at the betting window. 

HC Ollie cited the home court edge as a big reason why his team was able to upset Houston last night "I could feel the energy in there and I know our players fed off it," Ollie said. "We played really disciplined basketball down the stretch. I was very proud of that." A strong close to the first half keyed the victory. The Huskies also shot 54.5% from the field, including 8 for 17 on three-point attempts. That's a far cry from how they shot the ball the last time against Cincinnati where they finished a hideous 15 of 48 including 3 of 18 on three-pointers. Clearly, they'll shoot better this go around. It was less than a week ago that these teams met. It's really tough to beat the same opponent three times in a year, let alone twice in a week. Again, Connecticut's home court edge here means SOMETHING! 10* UConn

8* Princeton (1:30 ET): For the first time ever, the Ivy League is having itself a Conference Tournament! The two-day event is essentially the equivalent of "putting one's toe in the water" as they took only the top four teams. The layout of this weekend's festivities are hardly advantageous to the regular season champ, Princeton, who actually has to play this semifinal matchup on its opponent's home floor. That would be a Penn team that they've beaten twice before this season, by 9 and 15 points. They have, in fact, beaten the Quakers six straight times. Having not lost a conference game all season, Princeton has proven itself to be the head of the class this year in the Ivy League and I feel will overcome the "home court disadvantage" this afternoon. Lay the points. 

Penn comes into this inaugural Ivy League Tournament having played four straight games that were decided by three points or less. They won the regular season finale, 75-72 over Harvard, to clinch the 4 seed. In terms of talent and performance level, there is a clear gap here between the Quakers and the top three. Were it not for the home court advantage, Penn would realistically have zero shot this weekend. Even w/ it though, I think it's bound to be a long afternoon here. The two regular season games vs. Princeton saw them average a measly 50.5 PPG. The more lopsided result, a 64-49 loss as 5.5 pt dogs back on Feb 7, actually took place here at home. I just don't see any thing Penn has done since that time to make me think they'll be any more competitive here. 

Princeton dominated their Ivy League brethren this year to the tune of a 14-0 SU record while outscoring them by 13.5 PPG. They allowed just 56.4 PPG. Nationally, they rank in the top 10 in points allowed! There were only four conference games all season decided by fewer than eight points and two of those came against Harvard. The Tigers put an exclamation point on the regular season last Saturday w/ an 85-48 thumping of Dartmouth at home. Look for them to roll against Saturday afternoon. 8* Princeton

10* UConn (9:30 ET): Though they failed to cover last night (I had them) as double digit favorites against USF (won by 11), I still feel as if UConn isn't being given the proper credit here for the American Conference holding its Tournament in Hartford. Sure, it's not Storrs, but the Huskies have a definite edge in terms of locale this weekend. So even facing a rested Houston team tonight, they are the play as they are GETTING points. This is a double revenge spot to boot as Houston won the two regular season meetings by 5 and 16 points. Interestingly, the larger margin of victory occurred in Storrs, but UConn is much improved since that time. A four-game ATS losing skid may seem to indicate otherwise, but playing so close to campus here makes an outright victory a distinct possibility. Take the Points. 

Houston is the 3-seed here. Consider them to be a distant third behind conference heavyweights SMU and Cincinnati, the only two American teams guaranteed a birth in the Big Dance next week. Similar to UConn, Houston's regular season did have a great end at the pay window as they finished just 1-4 ATS over the L5 games w/ the lone cover coming on Senior Day against East Carolina. Four of the Cougars' six conf losses did come at the hands of SMU and Cincy. But that's not saying much considering the state of the league. While they shoot the three well, Houston averages just 72.1 PPG on the road. They are also only 1-7 ATS their L8x as a neutral court fave of 3.5 to 6 points.

UConn led by 13 at the break last night and upped the lead to 15 early in the second half. But they took their foot off the gas pedal and let USF back in the game. Free throws were key, particularly down the stretch. Though tighter than you'd like to see, I don't think last night's game puts the Huskies at that much of a disadvantage here. I expect them to shoot the ball A LOT better tonight than they did in either of the two reg season matchups w/ Houston. This is actually a triple revenge spot going back to the final meeting of last season. As a dog against anyone besides SMU and Cincy, UConn has covered four straight times including a perfect 3-0 ATS in American play. 10* UConn

10* Golden State (8:05 ET): The Warriors are off a loss (again!) and have now dropped three of their past five games. So much for another 70-win season. Clearly, they do miss Kevin Durant as their two lowest scoring games of the year have both come since he left the lineup. Wednesday at home was an ugly one as the Dubs lost 99-86 to the Celtics. The most shocking there was them getting outscored 27-12 in the fourth quarter. I can't remember that ever happening to this team here in the "Steph Curry era." The Warriors have also been bankrupting their backers of late w/ a 1-7 ATS record the L8 games. Tonight, they face a Minnesota team that has covered seven in a row. Because of those disparate streaks, we're able to grab a number far lower than what it should be. Lay the points.

Before losing at Chicago last Thursday, Golden State had not lost consecutive regular season games since April of 2015. That game marked another 4Q meltdown w/ only 14 pts. But still, the Dubs' record when off a SU loss this year is 10-1 SU w/ an average margin of victory of 12.7 points per game. Despite the two low-scoring efforts w/o Durant, I'm going to continue to point to the fact that this was the most efficient offense each of the last two seasons when he was not on the team. I believe Golden State is going to find Minnesota's defense to be quite accommodating. Despite holding four straight opponents to 97 pts or fewer, the T'wolves still rank only 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Warriors are second in that department (trailing only San Antonio), a very unheralded component.

Minnesota is playing its best basketball of the season currently and is now just 2.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the West. Finishing 8th would of course likely mean a first round playoff matchup vs. Golden State. I've called this team the 8th best team in the West for much of the year, but they're not ready for this level of competition. They did just beat the Clippers - quite easily - on Wednesday. But that 107-91 win as 6.5-pt underdogs does not set them up well here as they are just 2-9 SU this season off a SU dog win and 9-30 SU their L39 times in that role. They are also 4-23 SU off a double digit win the L3 seasons. Look for the Warriors to bounce back here. 10* Golden State

8* Ohio (8:00 ET): Despite having lost their best player (Antonio Campbell) for the rest of the season (back in late January), Ohio remains the favorite of many (myself included!) to win the MAC Tourney this weekend. Last night, the Bobcats survived a close call vs. Toledo, prevailing only 67-66 as 2.5-pt favorites. But they catch a break here in that the 6-seed Kent State happened to upset 3-seed Buffalo, 68-65 as well. That provides the Bobcats w/ a far more favorable matchup than they otherwise would have had to deal with here in the semis. Also, one could argue that Toledo is a better team than Kent (seeding malfeasance!), so this price looks like a bargain. Lay the points.

Admittedly, Kent State has gotten hot over the last month. The Golden Flashes have won seven of eight w/ the only loss coming to Akron, the MAC's regular season champ, in the reg season finale. However, one has to wonder what they have left in the tank for tonight. This will be their third game in the tournament and so far they've had to survive TWO close calls. The first came at home (Monday) as they needed overtime to win a wild one, 116-106 over Central Michigan. They trailed that game (again, was at home) by 13 pts at halftime. Two Kent State players - Jimmy Hall and Jalen Avery - scored a career-high in points in that game. Then came last night's win over two-time defending MAC Tourney Champ Buffalo. This time, it was a strong 1st half for the Golden Flashes, who led 39-32 at the break. It was a game w/ a ton of foul shots on both sides, but Kent certainly benefited from THREE different Buffalo players fouling out. 

By virtue of being the #2 seed, Ohio has had to play just once to get here. That was last night against a Toledo team I felt was the tourney dark horse. It was not easy for the Bobcats as they trailed by eight at halftime and trailed by as many as 15 in the first half. But a 16-0 run that started in the first and carried through to the second half gave them the lead until the final minute of the game. Down one, Kenny Kaminski made a jumper w/ seven seconds to go to win it. OU has now won six of eight, their only two losses both coming by 4 pts or less to Buffalo and Akron. They split the reg season series w/ Kent (each team won at home), but the Bobcats' 18-point win in Athens was far more impressive than the Golden Flashes' three-point win in Kent. Not only is Kent playing for a third time this week, but they were the later game yday. 8* Ohio

8* Minnesota (2:30 ET): Right off the bat, I'll make a confession that I'm not particularly sold on Minnesota's long-term prospects (as in making it far in the NCAA Tournament). But w/ the edge of having a bye (when their opponent played yday) plus the motivation of double revenge and being off a loss in the regular season finale should spur them onto victory today. Because it's March, everyone figures to be on the "Izzo bandwagon," but the fact is that this Michigan State team simply is not as good as past editions. They won big yday, but that was w/ a bye themselves against an inferior, unrested team in Penn State. We saw in another early game yday between two seemingly evenly matched teams (Oklahoma St-Iowa St) how the bye matters. 

The last time Minnesota played was Sunday. They lost at Wisconsin, 66-49 as eight-point dogs. Keep in mind *I* was on the Badgers there. The loss snapped an eight-game win streak for Minnesota. Despite it not being a good shooting day (32.1 FG%), the Gophers actually led at the half, 29-27. The difference was Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig hitting five three-pointers in the second half. In two losses to Michigan State this year, the Gophers haven't shot well either (just 37.7% and 33.3%). They were blown out in East Lansing (lost by 18), but the game at home was decided by just a single point. Defensively, this team is sound as they're holding opponents below 40% shooting for the year. Again, they'd won eight in a row before Sunday and have the edge of not having played yday. I expect a very motivated side this afternoon.

Michigan State won 78-51 over Penn State yday, easily covering the six-point number. They jumped all over the Nittany Lions early, taking a 45-27 lead into halftime. Keep in mind that was the Nittany Lions' second game in less than 24 hours and had to go to overtime to win their 1st round game. Sparty is now 28-14 SU in the Big 10 Tourney all-time, winning four of the last six years including last season. But ... as mentioned earlier, this is not the same strong outfit we're used to seeing out of East Lansing. They lost B2B games to end the regular season and are still just 6-11 SU on the road/in neutral site games. Minnesota actually boasts a winning record away from home, plus is 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS this year seeking revenge for a road loss. 8* Minnesota

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): These two bad teams have been experiencing much different results of late. The Lakers probably admit to tanking, but that's what it sure looks like in year one under HC Luke Walton. They've now lost eight in a row after falling 122-111 at Dallas Tuesday night. On the other hand, Phoenix has inexplicably covered four straight. Three of those were SU wins. All of the games were played here at home. But they did lose their last time out, 131-127 to Washington. Laying points w/ the Suns has typically not been a good idea as they're are just 3-7 SU and ATS as chalk this season. Sure enough, their recent results have led to a predictable inflation of this line. Take advantage and grab the points.

This is also a big revenge spot for the Lakers. In their final game before the All-Star Break, they played here in Phoenix and lost in embarrassing fashion, 137-101 as 4.5-pt dogs. That result dropped them to 2-8-1 ATS (2-9 SU) the L11 meetings w/ the Suns including 0-5 SU/ATS here in the desert. But despite all this, the Lakers are still a professional team with some pride to play for. Down by as many as 31 Tuesday in Dallas, the team at least was able to rally to make things look a little more respectable by game's end. This is a national TV game tonight, so there should be a desire not to get blown out again. With Phoenix, the Lakers are at least facing a team as inept defensively as they are.

Case in point, the Suns just gave up 131 points Tuesday. That was a tough loss as they'd fought back from an early double digit deficit and even took the lead briefly. The team's record after giving up 130+ pts this year is 1-5 straight up. It's not as if they have a winning record at home either. Again, I understand that the Lakers are not good and Phoenix has played respectably of late. But this is a good number to grab in a battle of the two worst teams in the Western Conference. The last meeting aside, the Suns have proven themselves untrustworthy in the role of chalk. 10* LA Lakers

8* UConn (8:00 ET): As was the case w/ Siena last week, it sure does look as if UConn is not being given the proper credit as tournament host this weekend. The fact that the American is holding it's tourney in Storrs would certainly seem to at least give the Huskies a "fighting chance" against the conference's two heavyweights, SMU and Cincinnati. While this team is nowhere close to the program's heyday under Jim Calhoun or even the group that cut down the nets a few years ago for current HC Kevin Ollie, they certainly should be able to rout lowly South Florida here on their home floor. After all, they've already beaten the Bulls by a total of 67 points in two meetings this year! Lay the points! 

I took Connecticut when they hosted USF last month. What an easy one that was! They crushed the Bulls 97-51 as 12.5-pt chalk, shooting 62.5% from the field including a blistering 16 of 24 from three-point range. Obviously, it would be difficult to pull off such a lopsided margin again. But, there's plenty of room to spare even w/ this double digit spread being slightly higher than it was the last time. Clearly, oddsmakers had to adjust after what happened one month ago, but IMO, they haven't adjusted nearly enough. Earlier in the year, the Huskies went to Tampa and beat USF by 21 there. I surmise the reason for this line being lower than I anticipated is that UConn dropped its last four regular season games. But two of those were to SMU and Cincy while the other two were road losses by five points or less. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in this conference tournament the L2 years.

USF won only ONE conference game all season. It was at home against East Carolina back on Feb 11, which was the game after they got destroyed here in Storrs. What's followed has been five more losses, four of them by double digits. Against the other American teams, the Bulls were outscored - on average - by about 16 points per game. Away from home, they had just one win all year and gave up about 80 PPG. All four matchups w/ UConn the L2 seasons have been decided by 20 points or more. What's changed now? Nothing. 8* UConn

8* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): Following an impressive finish to the regular season (5-1 SU/6-0 ATS L6 games), Vanderbilt has been identified as a potential darkhorse for this weekend's SEC Tournament in Nashville. It helps that the tourney is being played in close proximity to campus. The Commodores lone loss in the last six games came at Kentucky, by just six points. They ended their regular season w/ a 73-71 upset of Florida as four-point dogs on their home floor. If the Commies were to make the field of 68 w/o winning this weekend, then they'd be the first 15-loss at large time in the history of the Big  Dance. But as upward as the trajectory seems to be, I feel the team has become drastically overvalued here. I'll take the points here as Texas A&M has double revenge to boot. 

Texas A&M finished their regular season just one-half game worse than Vandy in the overall standings, but two games worse in the SEC. Thus, they are not even close to being considered for an at-large berth. Thus, it's "win or go home" this weekend for the Aggies. Though quarterfinal matchup w/ second seed Florida all but guarantees the stay will be a short one in Nashville, I do feel they'll pull the upset tonight. Ironically, the Aggies played Vandy tougher in Nashville than they did in College Station. It was just a five-point game at Memorial Gym three weeks ago. Vandy was a four-point favorite there. Even w/ somewhat of a "de facto" homecourt edge here, I think the Commies are overvalued for the rematch. As they did in the 1st meeting, A&M shot poorly on 2.16. In fact, they finished shooting about 40% from the field overall in the two games vs. Vandy this year. This is a team that shoots at a 46.2% clip for the year. 

A&M's defense must also be commended. They are holding teams to just 40% shooting - for the year. Vandy struggled in the second meeting, making only 12 of 30 two-point attempts. But they were 10 of 26 from three-point range as opposed to 3 of 16 for the Aggies. I don't expect that discrepancy to exist again here. A&M played Kentucky tough in its regular season finale, even taking a 19-4 lead to open the game. Save for Vandy, the Aggies mostly lost to only elite teams this year. Their non-conf schedule included UCLA, Arizona and West Virginia. Vandy has been one and done in the SEC Tournament the L2 years, failing to cover both times. 8* Texas A&M

10* Indiana (6:30 ET): From what I've seen, both teams here are considered to be below the cut line as far as the NCAA Tournament goes. Iowa is closer, generally regarded to be among the dreaded "first four out." Regardless, the loser of Thursday's Big 10 second round tourney matchup can kiss their Big Dance dreams goodbye. For the record, the rationale for Iowa being closer to the cut line is that they closed the regular season hotter (four-game win streak) and beat Indiana 96-90 in a game the oddsmakers had listed as a pick em. But that was in Iowa City and the game was decided in OT, one of four OT results this year for both sides (both went 2-2 SU). Interestingly, the oddsmakers have opened the 10-seed as the slight favorite here. I don't think by enough, however!

That OT loss in Iowa City from two weeks ago saw Indiana blow an 13-point lead. It's a game they probably feel that they SHOULD have won. They outshot Iowa for the game as the Hawkeyes were a woeful 5 of 24 from three-point range. The keys were Iowa leading scorer Peter Jok going for 35 pts w/ 22 of them coming from the FT line. Amazingly, as a team, the Hawkeyes got to the charity stripe a total of 47 times in that game, converting 39 of the opportunities. Indiana also shot well from the FT line, but was only 16 of 19. That kind of discrepancy in attempt should not again exist here at a neutral setting. Both teams average roughly the same number of FT attempts per game over the course of the season and it's Indiana that shoots the higher percentage.

These teams are pretty similar with each averaging slightly over 80 PPG. Both also allow plenty of points, but Indiana is slightly better, giving up four less points per game. Also, neither team has been very good away from home this year. Indiana is just 3-10 SU while Iowa is 4-9 SU. Why the edge to the Hoosiers then? Well, in addition to having revenge, I simply feel Iowa is a tad bit overvalued right now. That's thanks to stunning wins at both Maryland and Wisconsin late in the season. Meanwhile, Indiana did go to Ohio State and win its regular season finale. Iowa is just 2-11 ATS in tournament games and has been "one and done" in the Big 10 Tourney each of the last two years (0-2 ATS). 10* Indiana

8* Golden State (10:35 ET): Last week saw the Warriors lose B2B regular season game for the 1st time in almost two years. They responded w/ a 112-105 win over the sorry Knicks on Sunday. Then came a 119-111 win at Atlanta, which snapped a six-game ATS losing streak. Now that they're back home and seemingly back in a groove offensively, I like their chances to cover against the Celtics in a nationally televised matchup. Sure, Boston won't be lacking for motivation, especially coming off B2B losses themselves. The Celtics are one of the top teams in the East, but also simply not on the Dubs level. To me, this should be a double digit spread. Lay the points.

This is the second meeting of the year between these two w/ Golden State winning the first, by 16, in Boston. They were 8.5-pt favorites there, so there's been virtually no adjustment here despite the change in venue. Yes, Kevin Durant is out. The team's first game w/o him did not go well as they scored only 87 pts in the loss to Chicago last Thursday, which was the game that marked the second loss in a row. But let's remember that this was the top offense in the league each of the previous two seasons w/o Durant. They've come back to average 115.5 points the last two games. Lost in all the Warriors' accolades is the fact they also rank #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Here at home, they average an incredible 121.5 PPG and outscore teams by 17.5 PPG! Really, what else is there to say? 

Again, Boston is a good team, but not a team on Golden State's level. They are actually only 3-6 ATS their last nine games vs. teams with a winning record. Severely hurting their chances here is the way they've shot the ball recently. Five of the last seven games they've been below 42.5%. That kind of inefficiency won't get it done against Golden State. Yes, Al Horford missed the L2 games when the C's lost to both Phoenix and the Clippers. (He's expected back tonight). But Horford alone cannot rectify the discrepancy that exists between these teams. 8* Golden State

8* Missouri (9:30 ET): There hasn't been a more unlucky team in the country this year than Missouri. At least according to the KenPom rating. That makes sense. The Tigers are 7-23 SU despite being outscored by less than four points per game. That's crazy. There were nine different losses by five points or less during the course of the year. Needless to say, they finished last in the SEC at 2-16 SU (tied w/ LSU). That's thanks to a loss in the regular season finale at Auburn, 89-78 as nine-point underdogs. But they get a third crack at these Tigers (also lost to them 77-72 in Columbia) tonight and perhaps this one will be the charm. Take the points. 

Auburn gives up plenty of points per game, 79.4 to be exact. Thus, they don't exactly seem trustworthy as favorites. Missouri shot the ball dreadfully in both regular season matchups (33.4% overall!), which doesn't seem right given most of Auburn's defensive efforts. Auburn's only two wins over its last seven games against LSU and Mizzou, the bottom two in the SEC. They last posted B2B wins at the start of February. Beating the same opponent, twice in a row, is difficult to do. Thus, don't be surprised to see the favored Tigers struggle in this spot. Bruce Pearl's team is pretty young and its best players is a freshman.

Missouri last won a game on Feb 11 when they clobbered Vanderbilt by 20. Again, they've been far more competitive than the record indicates. Auburn shot a season-best 56.1% from the field Saturday, including over 70% in the first half, percentages they certainly won't be able to match tonight. Despite falling behind big early, Mizzou did actually outscore Auburn in the second half. A second crack at the same opponent within a week's time should be just what the doctor ordered for the underdog here. 8* Missouri

10* Over Pistons/Pacers (8:05 ET): I've failed a couple of times recently playing Indiana Over the total, but tonight should be "the night." They return home where they average an impressive 106.7 points per game. After opening the second half w/ a 102-92 home win over Memphis, the team has been on the road ever since (five straight games), playing some of the top defensive teams in the league. In fact, each of its last five opponents (save for one) ranks in the top eight in defensive efficiency. The one that did not was Houston and that resulted in a surprising 117-108 win (were 10-pt dogs), but the game still stayed Under b/c it was the Rockets and a high total. The number is more than manageable tonight. Take the Over.

Detroit is off a very big win Monday night as they beat Chicago 109-95. That was as six-point home favorites. After a serious of somewhat dreadful shooting performances, the Pistons have turned it around the L2 games, first shooting 56.8% in a 136-106 rout of Philadelphia, then 48.9% against the Bulls. They are now tied w/ the Bulls for seventh in the Eastern Conference, one game back of Indiana for sixth. A problem though is the defense which gives up 104.6 PPG on the road. They essentially hit that average "right on the nose" the last time they visited Indiana, allowing 105 points. However, scoring only 84 gave them next to no chance. Somewhat perplexing though is they actualy led that game, 58-56, at the half. That means they somehow managed to score less than 30 points in an entire half! That won't happen again. 

Indiana was held to only 88 points in a loss at Charlotte Monday night. Frustrating was the fact they held the Hornets to only 40% shooting and still lost by double digits. Note that game was the second of a back to back, a situation which the team has really struggled in all season (3-11 SU). They average just 101 PPG when unrested as opposed to over 106 PPG when rested. This Under streak is due to end and I'll call for it to happen here as Indiana has shot at least 48.4% from the field in all three meetings vs. Detroit this season. 10* Over Pistons/Pacers

8* TCU (7:00 ET): The way the Big 12 tournament works is that four teams have to play today in order to make the quarterfinals. That's probably fair because there's a bit of a chasm that exists between the top five and bottom five in this league w/ only Kansas State getting the "break" of not having to play today out of the latter group. The winner here is going to have to play Kansas tomorrow, so it's likely to be a short weekend for Oklahoma and TCU. But I believe the Horned Frogs are going to be the one's highly motivated to extend their season, if only for an additional day. Not only are the playing w/ immediate revenge here (lost in Norman in the reg season finale), but they're on a somewhat misleading seven-game losing streak. Go w/ the Horned Frogs here.

Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS its last six games, winning SU only three times. What's so odd about the Sooners' streak is that it coincides w/ the loss of their best player, Jordan Woodard, to a season-ending injury. Given that they won only half of the six games straight up, that tells me OU was able to take advantage of some predictably inflated lines down the stretch. All three wins came at home, by the way. In each of the three losses, they were double digit dogs. Without Woodard, Kameron McGusty becomes the team's leading scorer at 10.9 PPG. He scored a career-best 22 points against TCU on Saturday. One thing to note about that matchup is OU had two extra days to prepare and TCU was coming off a crushing one-point loss at home (to Kansas State).

I said earlier that TCU being on a seven-game losing streak is "misleading." Let me explain further. Four of the seven losses took place on teh road and the three in Ft Worth came by a combined five points. HC Jaime Dixon has noted that all the close losses began to wear on his team, but that's irrelevant now with every team having "new life." Incredibly, the Horned Frogs lost B2B games by a single point (WVU, Kansas State) before losing at Oklahoma on Saturday. Note they did beat the Sooners (by three) earlier in the year, but were actually 11-point favorites. There's been a massive swing in value from that game. Note that Oklahoma has been very streak ATS this season including a losing streak of five games before covering the last six. Their rotation goes only eight deep and w/o Woodard, it includes six underclassmen. 8* TCU

10* Over Arkansas Little Rock/UL Lafayette (6:00 ET): This is a 1st round matchup in the Sun Belt. Of the two teams, UL Lafayette is clearly the one more likely to make some noise this weekend. The Ragin Cajuns ended the regular season on a six-game win streak, culminating w/ an 83-81 upset of regular season champ UT Arlington on Senior Day. However, it should be pointed out that three of the six wins did come by two points or less. Still, this team can absolutely score (82.3 PPG!) and that's a big reason why I'm taking the Over in this matchup. Yes, Arkansas Little Rock has gone Under in eight straight games. But they've got a willing dance partner here and should see their own scoring increase significantly here. Take the Over.

Arkansas Little Rock won only three of its final 12 reg season contests, but two of the wins did come in the last three games. They're off a loss - 57-54 at Troy - a game where they held the opponent to 33.3% shooting yet somehow still lost. Of course, it hurts when you shoot only 36.4% from the floor yourself. For ALR, that game was lost at the FT line as Troy went 6 for 6 there in the final minute. Incredibly, the Trojans have gone seven straight games w/o topping 62 points and been held under 60 in six of those games. But for the season they are averaging 68.3 PPG, so if anything, they're just plain due for an increase. Overall, their last five games have averaged about 20 PPG fewer than the season average! There's value here. 

As I said, UL Lafayette will also be a willing dance partner here. Their games are played at a much faster pace and see a lot more scoring - on both sides. In addition to ranking 21st nationally in points per game, the Ragin Cajuns also have given up an average of 79.3 PPG in conference play. The last time these two faced off (1.28), it was an 88-82 ULL win w/ them shooting a preposterous 61.7% from the floor. I'm not saying the offenses will be as prolific this go around, but the precedent is there. Neither team has defended the three-point line particularly well, at least away from home, all season. With the Ragin Cajuns' games averaging nearly 160 PPG for the year, this total is too low for them. 10* Over Arkansas Little Rock/UL Lafayette

10* Idaho State (8:30 ET): On the surface, it would seem as if there's little reason to endorse Idaho State at this juncture. The Bengals lost their last eight regular season games and thus finished in the basement of the Big Sky Conference, tied w/ Southern Utah at 3-15 SU in conference play. But, if we've learned anything about these conference tournaments it's that they give teams like Idaho State a "new lease on life." Obviously, with little to play for down the stretch, it wasn't a huge surprise to see them consistently falter. But save for the regular season finale against Montana, the Bengals stayed generally competitive in those losses. The team they face in the 1st round of the Big Sky Tournament, Sacramento State, is hardly any kind of world beater and has actually been favored by more than a single point just three times in the last two months. Take the points here.

These teams played just once in the regular season and Sacramento State won (at home), 75-63 as six-point favorites. That's one of the three times the Hornets have been favored in the L2 months. Obviously they covered, but now are favored by the same amount at a neutral setting. There have been only two times that Sacramento State has been favored since that win on Feb 11, and in one of them they ended up losing outright (at home) to Northern Arizona. They're just 3-4 SU and ATS as a favorite this year and have laid more than six points in only one game. Tonight is just the second time all year they've been favored away from home. The Hornets went 0-3 SU/ATS in neutral setting during the regular season, losing by an average of 12.7 points per game.

Now I should probably point out that Idaho State has just ONE win away from home all year. It came on January 19th at Northern Colorado. It's been really tough times in Pocatello with SIX different players being lost for the season! But, as I said earlier, they weren't totally dominated in conference play. They actually shot the ball quite well in the 1st meeting w/ Sacramento State (51.0 FG%) and should be able to do so again considering the Hornets allow opponents to shoot at a high percentage, especially on the road. Also, Sac State is less than 30% from three-point range themselves away from home. Possible shocker in 1st round Big Sky action. 10* Idaho State

8* Portland (8:05 ET): Oklahoma City returns home after a very ugly 0-3 SU and ATS road trip, which started w/ a 114-109 loss in Portland. The revenge angle, often times, can be overrated and I think that's the case here. Like the Blazers, the Thunder have declined this season. Particularly on the offensive end where they now rank just 22nd in efficiency. Simply put, while Russell Westbrook continues to put up incredible individual efforts, the team is not really benefiting as a whole. Westbrook scored 45 points in the loss at Portland last week, but did so on only 12 of 36 shooting. Compare that to Damian Lillard's 33 points, which came via a far more efficient evening (11 of 23 from the field). OKC has been a strong home team this season (21-9 ATS!), but is laying too many points here. Take the points.

Portland has played just once since beating Oklahoma City. They hosted Brooklyn on Saturday and predictably that went well. They scored 130 pts, their second most in any game all year, and did so by shooting at a 57% clip overall while making 16 of 25 three-point attempts. The Blazers were supposed to play again last night (in Minnesota), but that game had to be postponed to due floor conditions. I think that's a break for them as now this is no longer the second game of a back to back. The Blazers may not be in the most enviable position right now (nine games under .500), but they only two back of the 8-spot and are 3-3 SU overall since adding Jusuf Nurkic from the team they are chasing, Denver. Having scored at least 112 points in each of the last five games, it will be tough to beat Portland by any kind of margin here.

Not only did OKC fall to Portland on the recent road trip, they also fell to Phoenix and Dallas. None of those teams are in the top eight in the West, so that's a pretty bad sign. They scored only 89 points Sunday in Dallas. Reflecting the issue I mentioned w/ Portland being such a high scoring opponent, the Thunder are just 3-7 ATS their L10 games against teams that average at least 106 PPG. The home team has enjoyed a distinct edge in this Northwest Division rivalry the last few years, but the Blazers are 2-1 SU this year (both wins at home) and lost by only six in their one previous trip here. This is an overlay. 8* Portland

8* Over Pacers/Hornets (8:05 ET): The O/U line has come down some since the open and I believe we've got a value play on the Over. Of course, I did come out on the losing end w/ an Over play on Indiana Sunday. But, it should be pointed out that the game appeared to be on track to go Over through three quarters of play. They led Atlanta 81-74 heading into the fourth, but that's when the scoring - on both sides - came to somewhat of a screeching halt. Interestingly, the Pacers had two 31 pt quarters yday, but scored just 35 in the 1st and 4th combined. The Under is now 7-0 their last 7 games. But I'll again call for the streak to come to an end today against a Charlotte team that is finally starting to come around. The number of points per game that both teams average exceeds the O/U line tonight. Go w/ the Over.

Charlotte was a nice winner for me on Saturday night as they went to Denver and prevailed 112-102 as 5.5-pt dogs. Over the All-Star Break, I preached "buying low" on this team and they've (mostly) delivered. While they only went 3-4 SU on the just completed road trip, they were 5-2 ATS and twice blew double digit leads in the fourth quarter. Out West, things mostly went well save for a bad loss to Phoenix on Thursday. The Hornets have averaged over 111 PPG their last four contests and while not all the games went Over, that's because they typically were facing higher O/U lines than normal. For the season, this team averages 105 PPG.

Indiana has faced plenty of upper tier defensive teams lately, so this game marks somewhat of a reprieve. On the road though, you have to worry about the fact they allow nearly 109 PPG. These teams have met twice so far this year w/ the home team winning big both times. The game here in Charlotte was far higher scoring than the one in Indiana w/ 222 total pts scored. The Pacers' Paul George seems to be ready to break out. He led the way w/ 34 pts yday. That was after a bit of a rough eight-game stretch where he shot just 32.4% from the field. George is too good of a player to continue shooting like that. I see this one sneaking past the number. 8* Over Pacers/Hornets

10* Over Knicks/Magic (7:05 ET): Going into yday, both of these teams were 5-0 Under in their L5 games. That includes a matchup against one another, which took place here in Orlando on March 1st. That 101-90 Knicks victory saw a pretty brutal shooting night from both teams. They combined to shoot just 41.5% overall including 13 of 54 from three-point ranger. However, there were some elements of that game that would lead you to believe that perhaps the Over "should have" cashed. For starters, the teams combined for 53 free throws and made 42 of them. Also, the score was 60-51 at halftime. That means there was only 80 total pts scored in the 2H, a very low number. Both teams have topped 100 pts in all games they've played since w/ the Magic scoring 110 and 114. I believe we're in line to see a much higher scoring game than we did last week. Take the Over.

Orlando's Under streak stopped at five yday in a 115-114 loss to the Wizards. While they covered, it was quite the disappointing result given that the Magic led by 16 at halftime. Their defense was then torched for 70 pts in the second half. This has not been a good offensive team for much of the year (29th in efficiency), but they have scored 224 pts the L2 games. I had them in their last home game, Friday vs. Miami, where they pulled off a 110-99 upset as eight-point dogs. They've shot nearly 50% from the floor these L2 games. Notable is how much lower the O/U line is for tonight's matchup compared to last week. That significant difference has created a ton of value in taking the Over. 

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I did have the Over in the Knicks game yday vs. the Warriors. It stayed Under, albeit barely. The 112-105 loss saw New York stay surprisingly competitive much of the way after a slow start (only 18 pts in the 1Q). In my analysis, I mentioned that the Knicks' shooting typically picks up at home. Well, them being on the road here isn't necessarily a negative the potential decline in shooting will be mitigated by the fact they allow 110.3 points per game away from home. Also, the Over is 8-3 this year when the Knicks are playing in the second game of a back to back. These are two bad teams (both in bottom 10 of defensive efficiency) w/ little to play for. That should mean little defense and the potential for a shootout. 10* Over Knicks/Magic

8* UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): This is the CAA Tourney Final and as expected it's a battle of the top two seeds. UNC Wilmington is the top seed, but not getting much respect due to the fact it could be a partisan crowd for Charleston. Note that this game is NOT being played on Charleston's campus, however. The teams exchanged wins on each other's floor during the regular season w/ UNC Wilmington winning 65-59 at Charleston and Charleston then returning the favor 67-66 at UNC Wilmington. Given that the Seahawks were favorites in both games, it certainly would appear - from a value standpoint - that they are the optimal side here. Lay the very short number.

UNC Wilmington lost just three CAA games in the regular season. Two of them were by one point. Since their last loss, 77-76 at Elon back on Feb 11, the Seahawks have won six in a row. The defending Tournament champs scored 105 pts in yday's semifinal win over William & Mary. They shot 59% from the field and were 11 of 21 from three-point range. Will those numbers be difficult to duplicate tonight? Certainly. But let's note that this is a top 10 team nationally in scoring at 85.4 points per game. There aren't many "mid-majors" worth a damn this season, but UNC Wilmington is definitely one worth monitoring come Selection Sunday. This is a deep team. Sunday marked the 15th time this season that four or more players scored in double figures.

Charleston has also won six in a row. They beat Towson yday, 67-59 as 3.5-pt chalk. Unlike UNC Wilmington, the Cougars do it w/ defense as they're yielding just 63.7 points per contests this year. They held UNC Wilmington right around that average in both regular season meetings. But I have my doubts that they can do it a third time. The Cougars actually trailed much of the way yesterday against Towson and had only 21 pts at halftime. They did not take the lead for good until after the midway point of the second half. As far as Tournament Final games go, UNC Wilmington is 6-1 ATS while Charleston is 0-4. Again, I go back to the fact that the Seahawks were favored AT Charleston earlier in the year, thus it stands to reason they should be favored by more here. 8* UNC Wilmington

10* Denver (7:00 ET): Thanks to an unlikely regular season champion (South Dakota), the Summit League Tournament will be as wide open as any bracket we see all week. Already, there's been one significant upset, that being the 7-seed (IUPUI) knocking off the 2-seed (North Dakota St) yday and doing so in rather dominant fashion (76-57). The winner of this game will draw the top seed in the semifinal tomorrow. Denver is the #5 seed and did not play well down the stretch. They've lost three in a row coming into tonight, two at home and the other 88-64 at South Dakota State. But they get a crack at immediate revenge here playing the Jackrabbits a second straight time. I have these teams rated fairly evenly, so expect a much different result this time around. Take the points.

Back on Feb 19, Denver was coming off a five-day break and set to host IUPUI. The Pioneers were 8-5 SU against their Summit League brethren and certainly in a position to challenge for a top spot in the conference. But that's when things began to fall apart. They lost outright to the Jaguars - 83-72 as seven-point chalk. Then came an even more disappointing loss on Senior Night, 84-83 to Nebraska-Omaha, a game in which they were 5.5-pt favorites. But, by far, the worst result of the bunch took place last Saturday in Brookings. There, Denver lost 88-64 to South Dakota State as four-point underdogs. While the lopsided result of that contest needs to be taken into account, it sure does seem the oddsmakers are putting a bit too much stock into it. Either that, or they "forgot" that there's no homecourt advantage here. 

Denver did beat South Dakota State earlier in the year, 91-82 as seven-point favorites. What has plagued them these L3 games is a lack of defense as they've given up 83, 84 and 88 points. But I would not look for SDSU to shoot 59.6% from the field again as they did last Saturday. The Jackrabbits have admittedly been on fire shooting the ball this month, but they did have a couple of off nights, one of which was on the road (at North Dakota St) where they finished at 36.8% for the game. Factoring out home games is key here b/c SDSU has just four wins away from home all season. They've averaged just 64.0 PPG in three neutral site games. Denver is actually the more efficient of the two offenses here (shoots 48.3% from the field) and I think too much stock is being put into last week's result. I look for the Pioneers to exact some revenge. 10* Denver

8* Over Jazz/Kings (6:05 ET): Again, we find an O/U line that is really low by 2017 NBA standards. Of course, that is not without reason. First off, Utah is involved. They are number three in defensive efficiency (behind only Golden State & San Antonio) and - on average - their games come in as the lowest scoring in the league (196.4 PPG). They allow the fewest points per game in the entire league. Of the only seven games since Feb 1 that have had an O/U line of 200 pts or less, the Jazz have been involved five times. Note that the Over is 4-1 in those games. Here they draw a Sacramento team whose roster has been depleted in the wake of the Boogie Cousins trade. But I maintain that the number is just too low given how scoring has risen by so much this season. Take the Over. 

Every Kings game since the Cousins trade (occurred during the All-Star Break) has stayed Under the total. Going back even further, we find that the Under has cashed seven straight times and in 11 of their last 13 games. But this is a really low O/U line by Sacramento's standard. One would have to go back 20 games to find the last time the oddsmakers called for fewer than 200 total points scored in one of their games. Then you'd have to go back even further - to New Year's Eve to be exact - to find an O/U line lower than this one for one of their games. Yes, the offense will continue to suffer w/o the services of Cousins. But let us not forget what a dreadful defensive team this is. They are tied for 24th in efficiency and allow more than 105 PPG. 

Note that the Over is actually 17-12 in Jazz road games this season. Their last game went Over as they routed lowly Brooklyn, 112-97 as 13-point favorites Friday. That result is good news for us here as the Jazz are 14-5 Over following a double digit win. They have allowed more than 100 points in two of their previous three games. Sacramento comes in with plenty of rest (last played Wednesday), so there really should be no excuse for them not to give some kind of effort here. Still though, you have to worry about the defense. Utah has scored at least 105 pts in 8 of its last 12 games and Friday saw both George Hill and Derrick Favors "go off" to the tune of 53 points. This one sneaks past the low number. 8* Over Jazz/Kings

10* Wisconsin (6:00 ET): It was exactly two weeks ago to the day that I released my top College Hoops play for February on Wisconsin. The Badgers were hosting Maryland and despite a low ticket count, they'd seen the sharp money come their way. They'd go onto win 71-60 as six-point chalk. Unfortunately though, that stands as their ONLY win over the L6 games. As was the case leading into that Maryland game, the Badgers are again reeling, having lost three in a row - all as favorites. The latest setback came here in Madison, 59-57 to Iowa on Wednesday. It was just their second home loss of the season. As I stated in my analysis for that Wisconsin-Maryland matchup, the Badgers don't lose B2B home games often. In fact, they don't lose B2B games often. This three-game losing streak of theirs is the longest of the season. They bounce back in a major way Sunday on Senior Night. Lay the points.

Minnesota, like Maryland, is a Big 10 team that I feel is overrated. Now I will give credit "where credit is due" in that the Golden Gophers come into tonight on an eight-game win streak. They are 7-1 ATS during that stretch. But Richard Pitino's team has not won in Madison since '09 and already fell to the Badgers earlier in the season, 78-76 as four-point dogs, in overtime. While the Gophers covered there, comparing the two lines sure makes it look as if there's substantial value on Wisconsin here. I don't see Minnesota matching its shooting effort from that 1st meeting where they hit 46.9% overall from the field including 9 of 17 three-pointers. Away from home, the Gophers' scoring is a lot more pedestrian at 68.2 PPG. That's a significant drop from the 80.7 PPG they average at home. As a reminder, Wisconsin allows only 56.2 PPG at home where it is still outscoring opponents by 19.7 PPG! 

Not only is this Wisconsin's first three-game losing streak of the season, it's just the second three-game losing streak over the last three seasons. What better time to get back on track than Senior Day? Again, it's worth noting that the Badgers were favored in all three losses. Previously, they'd gone 18-2 SU when favored this year. While I view Wisconsin still as a top 20 team, Minnesota would hardly crack my top 35. The Gophers have three overtime wins, so the record is a bit misleading. The winner here finishes tied for second place in the Big 10, so this is a big game. Wisconsin's five straight losses to unranked teams has tied a single-season record, but I feel the market has now adjusted accordingly. They won'

t be nearly as sloppy as they were Wednesday vs. Iowa (scoreless for final 3:12!) nor as bad from three-point range (6 of 23). It's worth mentioning that Minnesota's last two wins came against Penn State & Nebraska - both at home. 10* Wisconsin

8* Over Warriors/Knicks (3:35 ET): The Dubs' 1st game since learning Kevin Durant would be out for awhile was quite the sobering experience. Not only did Thursday's 94-87 loss at Chicago represent their lowest scoring output of the season, it also marked the 1st time since April of 2015 that they lost B2B regular season games. Thus, I look for the best team in the league to be quite surly this afternoon for a nationally televised date at MSG. That makes the lousy Knicks "the wrong team at the wrong time." Certainly, we should expect a pretty significant bounce back on the offensive end for the Warriors this afternoon. Not only because they are the #1 team in the league in offensive efficiency, but also due to the fact that New York is 24th in defensive efficiency. Take the Over. 

You can probably expect to hear a lot about how the Warriors are "in trouble" from the usual idiots on TV. But I'm not buying that. This was the #1 team in offensive efficiency the L2 years w/o Durant. Certainly, the so-called "Splash Brothers" - Klay Thompson & Steph Curry - will shoot better here than they did Thursday night when they went a combined 3 of 23 from three-point range. Again, it helps playing the Knicks. Now, if you simply just look at the final scores from the Knicks' recent games, you might actually draw the false conclusion that their defense is improving. But a quick check of the opponents during that stretch reveals that probably isn't really the case. Three of their last four games have come against the bottom two offenses in the league (Philly, Orlando) and the other was against the Lowry-less Raptors. This will be a colossal step up in class for them here.

New York has gone Under in five straight games. Again though, you have to factor in who they were playing. Golden State has gone Under four straight times, but their O/U lines are typically higher than this one. In fact, three of those four games saw an O/U line of at least 228 points! An earlier meeting this season saw a 103-90 Warriors win, but that was w/ the two sides combining to go 14 of 53 from three-point range. The Knicks, for all their problems, actually shoot the ball well here at home. We're talking 46.6% overall and 37.6% from three-point range. Expect a high-scoring affair this afternoon on ABC! 8* Over Warriors/Knicks

10* Over Pacers/Hawks (1:05 ET): At least to me, there's a pretty sizable gap between the top four teams in the East (Cleveland, Boston, Washington & Toronto) and the rest of the field. It's essentially going to come down to a seven-team race for the final four spots. Safest (right now) among that rest of the field is Atlanta, currently in fifth w/ a three-game cushion over their opponent today, Indiana. The Pacers, on the other hand, have only a 4.5 game lead over 11th place Charlotte. Both of these teams have been going Under A LOT lately w/ Indiana's last six games all going that way. Atlanta had an identical streak going, that was until a wild 135-130 loss to Cleveland Friday night. That should be the impetus for a higher scoring affair today as well. Take the Over. 

Believe it or not, but Friday was NOT the 1st time the Hawks allowed 130+ points in a game this season. It has happened two times previous and in each instance, their next game went Over the total as well. They wound up allowing an average of 119.5 PPG in those two contests. Another key factor here is that w/ HC Mike Budenholzer suspended (made contact w/ ref in game vs. Cleveland), the team defense will likely suffer. Offensively, the Hawks are 8-2 Over following a game where they topped 130 points. They average 106.5 PPG at home, but also allow 106.3 PPG here. Somewhat surprisingly, despite those averages, the Under is actually 16-14 in Hawks' home games this year. But the average is certainly higher than the O/U line for this game. 

Indiana has allowed at least 100 pts in nine of its last 10 games. But since the All-Star Break, they've had to face some of the league's better defensive clubs (Memphis, Miami, San Antonio), thus their offense has suffered. The one exception there would be a game against the high-scoring Rockets, which ended up being a 117-108 win. Yet that game stayed Under only due to a REALLY high total. Surprisingly, Atlanta is also in the top five in defensive efficiency. But Friday showed they can be shredded as they allowed a NBA record 25 three-pointers made by the Cavs. Indiana's defense is hardly worth "writing home" about, especially on the road where they allow an average of 109.4 PPG. 10* Over Pacers/Hawks

10* Siena (9:30 ET): At least for this quarterfinal matchup, I don't believe Siena is being given the proper respect as the MAAC Tournament host. The Saints finished tied for 3rd in the conference after winning their final regular season contest, but will be the #4 seed in the tourney. That's just fine though. It means they draw a Fairfield team that they swept in the regular season. But that's not the only reason that isn't a favorable draw for the visiting Stags. This will be their third consecutive road game and it's looking as if one of their starters may not play tonight. Being the tournament host could mean big things this weekend for Siena, such as the possibility of hosting top seeded Monmouth tomorrow. But before that, they must T.C.B. (Take Care of Business) here. I think they will. Lay the points. 

Despite the relatively strong finish, Siena's regular season could fairly be dubbed "underwhelming." Coming into the year, they thought they'd be able to challenge Monmouth for the top spot. But they finished well off the pace (six games back) instead. Some of that is due to Nico Clareth missing significant time. Second on the team in PPG (13.6 in just 25 min per game), Clareth returned for good in early February and the Saints are 5-2 SU ever since. Both losses came against Monmouth. Clareth scored 22 pts (off the bench) in Sunday's 80-64 win over Marist. Siena led by as many as 22 thanks to some strong shooting, particularly from three-pt range. The win also improved their home record to 10-4 SU this year. In those seven games w/ Clareth back, Siena has topped 80 points five times. They are also shooting better than 50% the L5 games.

Fairfield ended its regular season w/ consecutive wins, on the road. But both came by four points or less and were low scoring games. In a sharp contrast to the way Siena ended its regular season, Fairfield has scored 62 pts or less in each of the L4 games. Now, as referenced above, they could be w/o a starter. Amadou Sidibe, the team's only seniora that sees significant minutes and one of their best players, is battling an ankle injury. In addition to being the Stags' fourth leading scorer, Sidibe is also #2 in the MAAC in rebounding. Even if he does play, this won't be the best matchup for him as Siena has the conference's top rebounder (Brett Bisping) on its roster. Sidibe also has a propensity to get into foul trouble. Bisping helped Siena outrebound Fairfield in both meetings during the regular season. Those two games saw Fairfield get to the FT line a total of only 17 times! That's been a problem for them much of the season. I look for Siena to roll here on its home floor. 10* Siena

10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): The Hornets seemed to be building some momentum prior to a very disappointing 120-103 loss at Phoenix Thursday night. That result leaves them three back of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and nine games below .500 overall. But the record would appear to be misleading when you consider they have actually outscored opponents this year and have the East's sixth best net efficiency rating. Only four teams in the Conference (the top four!) have outscored opponents over the course of this season. Tonight, Charlotte finally wraps up this long road trip (7th straight) that began before the All-Star Break. They're at a Denver team that's an enviable 8th in the Western Conference, but coming off a pair of upsets on the road, the Nuggets are being overvalued in this spot. Take the points.

As I said earlier, Charlotte seemed to finally be trending in the right direction before the bad showing in Phoenix. They'd covered three straight, going 2-1 SU (one loss in OT at Clippers) and keep in mind that came after starting the trip by blowing double digit fourth quarter leads at Toronto and Detroit. They have covered just four of their previous 18 games and are an unfathomably bad 1-17 SU as an underdog this year. But I maintain that they are better than their record. Part of the issue has been Cody Zeller missing so many games. The team has nearly as many SU defeats in the 20 games he's missed (3-17 SU) as they do in the 41 games in which he has played (23-18). While Frank Kaminsky won't play tonight, Zeller will and he's proven to be the more important of the two players.

While we've seen some hot shooting of late from Denver, I seriously doubt that they will be able to match Phoenix's somewhat preposterous 59.7% clip from the other night. The Nuggets did just score 125 and 110 in wins at Chicago and Milwaukee respectively, but laying points remains a concern w/ a team that is 30th in the league (that's last!) in defensive efficiency. (Charlotte is 8th in def efficiency). Starting power forward Kenneth Faried will again be out of Denver's lineup, which is a big deal as he's the key cog in the team's league best rebounding rate.  10* Charlotte

10* Weber State (9:00 ET): What has happened to the once mighty Big Sky power known as Weber State? The Wildcats are really limping to the finish here w/ four straight losses. The most recent came here at home to long-time rival Montana on Thursday. But even worse has been the Wildcats' returns at the betting window. They've failed to cover nine games in a row and are just 1-12 ATS their L13 games overall. That one cover came against one of the real dregs of the league, Idaho State, as well. But let us not forget that this is the same team that opened Big Sky play at 11-2 SU. The conference opener was an 87-75 win at Montana State and that's the team they close the reg season out against. The result will be similar. Lay the points. 

This being Senior Night should add to the loads of motivation Weber State already has. They are tied w/ Montana State for third place in the conference (Idaho also 11-6 SU), so a lot is on the line here. Weber State still has to be cursing itself for the way it let one slip away against Montana two nights ago. More than halfway through the second half, they were shooting 55% percent from the floor and led by double digits. Most of the time, that turns out to be a win. But it wasn't as the Wildcats went cold late and lost for the 1st time at home to Montana in 13 seasons. They are still 9-3 SU at home this year and averaging 85.6 points per contest. I just find this entire swoon to be pretty shocking and figure "tonight is the night" for it to end.

Montana State was a 4.5-pt dog at home when they lost to Weber State, 87-75, back in December. So by that line comparison, it certainly appears as if they aren't getting enough "help" from the oddsmakers for the rematch. The Bobcats have won five in a row, but are also playing their second road game in three days. Aside from beating rival Montana in the home finale last Saturday, they've mainly been beating the bottom teams in the league and not by large margins either. Again, I simply believe the favorite is being way undervalued here given their pedigree and circumstance. 10* Weber State

8* Over Duke/North Carolina (8:15 ET): The latest installment of College Hoops' fiercest rivalry is rife w/ ACC Tournament implications. North Carolina is attempting to win the regular season crown outright, something they can do by simply winning tonight. Duke cannot win the regular season crown, but a win here ensures they'd at worst finish tied for third and be seeded no lower than fifth next weekend. The Blue Devils, tied w/ both Louisville and Florida State at 11-6 SU in ACC play, did just beat the Seminoles on Tuesday. The 75-70 win was their fourth straight game decided by five points or less and they are 0-4 ATS in those games. North Carolina has had an extra day to prepare here, but is also off a humbling 53-43 loss at Virginia which snapped a four-game SU/ATS win streak. I have no opinion on the side for this one, but love the total. Let's go Over. 

As a road favorite, I faded UNC Monday night in Charlottesville. But even I was stunned at how the Hoos put their clamps down on the Tar Heels' offense. Coming in averaging nearly 86 PPG, Roy Williams' team was held to HALF their scoring average! The 43-point effort is the lowest scoring game ever under HC Williams. Virginia smartly employed a smaller lineup against the Tar Heels and forced 12 first half turnovers. Keep in mind though that Duke is not Virginia (at least defensively). While UVA is #1 in the country in points allowed, Duke is tied for 81st. North Carolina remains 11th in the country in points per game at 85.0 PPG and the number predictably gets higher here in Chapel Hill. Last month in Durham, the teams combined for 164 points, yet the Under cashed b/c the O/U line was higher than it is here. 

Duke can also score. They put up 86 on the Heels when they beat them last month. The Blue Devils are top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency (UNC #4) and also average more than 80 PPG for the year. Their last road game was an ugly effort (lost 55-50 at Miami), but they should be far more prolific tonight. Both teams shot better than 52% in the first meeting, but keep mind that North Carolina made only four three-pointers. They average seven per game. Had they hit just one more than last month's meeting would have gone Over the total. Yes, the Under is 3-0 the L3 meetings and 8-0-2 in UNC's L10 games overall. But tonight's number has been lowered too much (compared to 1st meeting). 8* Over Duke/North Carolina

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Both of these teams have reason to be concerned, but their respective playoff hopes each received a huge boost w/ last night's results. Both won SU as underdogs. Toronto went to Washington (not an easy place to win) and prevailed 114-106, avenging a home loss to the Wizards that took place Wednesday. Since learning they'd be w/o starting PG Kyle Lowry for the rest of the regular season, the Raptors are a surprising 3-1 SU/ATS. But how long can they keep that up? Milwaukee, on the other hand, is a team that needs to pick up the pace. They are six games below .500 and 1.5 games back of 8th place in the Eastern Conference. But they picked up a big win here at home last night, beating the Clippers (who had Chris Paul in the lineup) 112-101 as 5-point dogs. After a tough stretch, it does look like the Bucks are finally "getting it together" (won 5 of 8). I'll call for them to make it two straight at home tonight.

Beating the Clippers last night was a nice way to atone for Wednesday's somewhat shameful showing here against Denver. That game saw the Bucks trail virtually the entire way (32-15 after 1Q). Last night was a much different story as they basically led wire to wire (led 34-19 after 1Q). They led by as many as 23 against a good Clippers team that is at full strength, forcing them into a season-high 23 turnovers. Again, it bears repeating that Toronto is NOT at full strength currently. Lowry should prove to be a HUGE loss for them. Though 5-1 SU this year when Lowry does NOT play, Toronto has actually been outscored by 4.3 pts per 100 possessions in those games.

Another positive takeaway from last night for Milwaukee is that they were able to win despite the Clippers shooting 56% from the field! That's hard to do. Suffice to say, I don't see the Raptors coming anywhere near that percentage, though they did shoot slightly better than 50% last night in D.C. But their SU record in the 2nd game of a back to back is a losing one. Toronto has had Milwaukee's number in the past two seasons, going 7-0 SU against them, including 3-0 this year. But that was w/ Lowry averaging 23.0 PPG. Yes, the Bucks are w/o Jabari Parker, but that's been mitigated by the return of Khris Middleton to the starting lineup. Milwaukee has played better than its record as they've outscored opponents on a per possession basis over the course of the season. 8* Milwaukee

8* LA Lakers (10:35): This long-time rivalry no longer means much, especially w/ Los Angeles being so downtrodden. Ever since starting the season with a respectable 10-10 SU record, the Lakers have dropped 32 of 41 games, including five in a row. They are the worst defensive team in the league. Yet, I have reason to believe they'll be quite competitive tonight as they host the Celtics. First off, this is a spot where Boston will be ripe for a letdown after beating Cleveland in a "playoff-like" game (on national TV), at home Wednesday. I was on them there remember. But it's been awhile since the Celtics beat anyone by any kind of significant margin. So I'll take the points.

Boston was an 11-pt favorite at home when they beat the Lakers 111-103 last month. Thus, they certainly appear to be overvalued in this rematch. Certainly, the Lakers' recent slide must be accounted for, but it seems as if the oddsmakers have adjusted too much, expecting a likely influx of public money on the Celtics here. The Lakers are likely to treat this game more seriously as they look to snap their losing streak. For Boston, this game carries nowhere near the importance of Wednesday's contest vs. Cleveland, a back and forth affair that saw 22 lead changes and wasn't decided until the final minute. 

Though the Under has cashed in each of their last five games, Boston is by no means a good defensive team as they allow over 105 PPG. That makes it difficult to cover when in this price range on the road.  Boston has a really good record as road chalk, but it's rare to see them laying this many. In fact, the last time they did, they lost outright in Sacramento. The Lakers led Charlotte going into the fourth quarter Tuesday. That was after playing tough games against OKC and San Antonio to start the second half. Going into the Break, the Lakers were a respectable 12-14 SU at home and basically dead even in terms of points scored vs. allowed for the season. 8* LA Lakers

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Back on Feb 13, the Magic beat the Heat 116-107 as eight-point underdogs. At the time, Miami was coming off its first loss in nearly a month (to Philadelphia). I still view that 13-game win streak as one of the strangest things of this NBA season so far. Coming out of the All-Star Break, I expected the Heat to regress some, but that really hasn't happened yet as they are now 4-1 SU/ATS since the Orlando loss. I'm proud to say I was on the Magic that last meeting and despite the Heat being out for revenge, I'll back them again tonight. I'm still of the belief that Miami is due to regress and they certainly look overvalued tonight. 

Miami did drub Philadelphia two nights ago, winning 125-98 at home. They shot 54.4% from the field and essentially led wire to wire. But it was a much different offensive showing in the previous game, which was a 96-89 loss at Dallas. I realize the Heat are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season after scoring 115+ pts the previous game, most of those games coming recently, but they could very well be w/o Dion Waiters tonight. Waiters has been a key contributer in the team's overall resurgence. Hassan Whiteside is also battling an eye issue. The Heat are just 13-19 SU on the road, so it's pretty rare to see them laying points. Sure enough, last time they were road chalk was the loss to Philadelphia that snapped the 13-game win streak. Tonight is just the FIFTH time all season that they've been road faves. 

Orlando, meanwhile, is off a disappointing home loss to the Knicks on Wednesday. However, there were some positive takeaways, namely them allowing just 41 pts in the second half. Overall, they're giving up exactly 1.0 point per possession since the All-Star Break. No team is allowing that little on a per possession basis over the course of the year. What made the loss to the Knicks so disappointing is that the Magic were coming off a long layoff. This is still just their second game since Saturday when they routed Atlanta 105-86 on this floor. That and the Miami game are their only SU wins over the past nine games, but as bleak as the future may look here, Orlando is the play plus the points tonight. 10* Orlando

10* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Back on February 3rd, Central Michigan beat Western Michigan 86-82 as 3.5-pt chalk. Since that time, these two MAC West rivals have gone in very opposite directions. Central Michigan would win their next game, an 97-87 upset of Ohio, but has now dropped a stunning six in a row despite the presence of Marcus Keene, who is the nation's leading scorer at 29.4 PPG. The Chippewas are also 0-6 ATS in those six SU losses. Meanwhile, Western Michigan has not tasted defeated since losing in Mt. Pleasant, going a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS its last seven games. In my opinion, these disparate streaks have created a situation where the favorite has become greatly overvalued. I'll take the points.

Keene has certainly not shot the ball well recently, which is a big reason for CMU's slide. He is a pretty miserable 46 of 127 from the floor those L6 games. With three straight 20+ losses, many are going to simply write off the team in this reg season finale. But I think that's a mistake given what Keene and CMU are capable of offensively. They were absolutely embarrassed by Eastern Michigan in the final home game Tuesday and should would atone for that miserable defensive performance (gave up 109 points). Note that this could possibly be the first time ALL SEASON that the Chippewas close as double digit underdogs! This is a team averaging 88 PPG getting plenty of points. It would take quite the prolific shooting night for Western Mich to cover this spread. Note the Broncos shot 51% from the floor in Mt. Pleasant last month and still lost. 

Western Michigan certainly can score too, especially here in Kalamazoo. But lately it been the Broncos defense that has carried them. They've held three straight opponents to 56 pts or fewer, a streak I can assure you will NOT continue here. Now the Broncos are playing for at least a share of the MAC West title. They can win the division outright if they win here and Ball State loses (at home) to Northern Illinois. So the pressure is on and I feel it will be difficult to win by any kind of margin. Note Central Michigan still has the better overall SU record this season. Similar to Central Michigan not having been a dog of this size all year, this stands to be the most points Western Michigan has had to lay to any opponent all season. The Broncos have only been favored in FIVE of 17 MAC games overall. 10* Central Michigan

8* The Citadel (5:00 ET): If you're not familiar w/ The Citadel's brand of basketball, there's one thing you should not expect much of and that's defense. Consider that despite averaging over 90 PPG (2nd most in the country), the Bulldogs are 11-20 SU. This is due to being the worst defensive team in the country, allowing more than 95 PPG! Fortunately, for their opening round matchup in the SoConTournament, they draw Western Carolina. Both teams went just 4-14 SU in conference play, but interestingly two of Western Carolina's wins came at The Citadel's expense. That seems odd, though both victories were by a margin of five or less. I can't see the Catamounts pulling off the season sweep, so I'll call for The Citadel to score enough to take this rubber match.

The Citadel is not shy about putting up three-point shots. In the two meetings w/ Western Carolina, they've attempted 76 (!), exactly 38 in each game. They've made only 26, not a great percentage. It really hurt them going just 11 of 38 in the last meeting as they lost by four at home (were six-point favorites). Something else that certainly did not help was falling behind by 18 at the half. But still, the Bulldogs wound up having a chance to tie in the final minute! The first game was a 100-95 final. Again, it was a one possession game in the closing seconds and The Citadel had a chance to tie. Though the Bulldogs defense is beyond "suspect," I just can't see Western Carolina making over 50% of its three-point attempts again as they've done in the previous two meetings.

Now onto some positives for The Citadel. They did win their final two regular season games, both as pretty big underdogs. Saturday they went to Samford (were +13.5) and won 102-96 thanks to a 60-point second half. That snapped an 11-game overall losing streak! Then, in Monday's reg season finale, they upset Chattanooga (were +8), 85-76. That's certainly an encouraging performance, especially on the defensive end. As for Western Carolina, they too won on Senior Night Monday, beating VMI (last place team in the SoCon), 81-68 as two-point chalk. What's so shocking about the regular season results between these two is that both games were played at The Citadel's pace and they still lost. Western Carolina only averages 55.1 PPG away from home and is the third lowest scoring team in the country overall! 8* The Citadel

8* Loyola Chicago (3:30 ET): An interesting situation presents itself in the first of four Missouri Valley quarterfinal matchups today. Southern Illinois will be looking to upset favored Loyola for a third time this year. Back on February 4th, they beat the Ramblers on the road, 67-61 as six-point dogs. Then, last Saturday in Carbondale (reg season finale for both), they did it again (this time as only a 1-pt home dog), 72-70. Yet despite those results and SIU being the higher overall seed (4 vs. 5), Loyola is again the slight favorite here. So the oddsmakers are clearly maintaining the Ramblers are the better team here and so will I. With the double revenge angle in play and this being the second meeting in less than a week, I'll call for the third time to be the charm for Loyola IL. Lay the short number. 

Last Saturday's win is what secured the 4-seed for Southern Illinois. Both teams came into the reg season finale at 8-9 SU in MVC play. The game was not decided until Salukis' guard Armon Fletcher made a three-point basket w/ 17 seconds remaining. Both teams shot the ball well; it just so happened that SIU made the key shot. Neither team led by more than four points at any time in the contest. The Salukis also shot well in their upset of the Ramblers three weeks earlier. Loyola did not shoot well in that first meeting, particularly from three-point range. However, I am not expecting SIU to shoot the ball that well here this afternoon. That's because when they leave Carbondale, they are averaging only 62.5 PPG for the year. 

Loyola IL is just 2-6 SU vs. their in-state rival since joining the Missouri Valley. So there's additional motivation present here beyond this just being a conference tournament game. The Ramblers did not end the regular season well, dropping six of their final eight contests, but you should note that FOUR of those losses were by TWO points or less! While obviously not a "true" road game here, I again have to go back to my belief that Southern Illinois won't score much here. In three of their last five games away from home, they've failed to score even 50 points! I just can't see the inferior side winning for a third time this year. The underdog has actually won (straight up!) each of the L4 times these teams have met. Time for that to change. 8* Loyola Chicago

10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): At the All-Star Break, the Hornets were a team I said was worth investing in. Sure enough, they've covered three straight games. The latest was a somewhat narrow 109-104 victory over the Lakers. They actually trailed going into the fourth quarter, but rallied to win behind Kemba Walker's 30 points. That result could certainly be dubbed a "reversal of fortune" for Charlotte, who had typically been on the WRONG end of some fourth quarter comebacks recently. Most notably, they blew double digit 4Q leads at both Toronto and Detroit, games that bookended the All-Star Break. Since that time, they've won at Sacramento, taken the Clippers to overtime (lost by three) and then beat the Lakers Tuesday. There's still much work to be done for the team w/ the fifth best point differential and net efficiency rating in the East, however. I expect them to beat up on the lowly Suns here.

Yes, though eight games below .500 and in 11th place, the Hornets have outscored their opponents by more on a per game and per possession basis than all by four other teams in the Conference. That would be the "big four" of Cleveland, Boston, Washington and Toronto. One could argue that they "should" be 5-0 on the current road trip, which ends Saturday in Denver. But they've twice lost in overtime and are actually a league-worst 0-5 SU in OT games this season. That's after going a league-best 5-0 SU last season. (Funny how that works out!). But all the tell-tale signs are there that a turnaround is coming. Cody Zeller returned against the Lakers following a six-game absence. The team went 1-5 SU in those six games and is 3-17 SU w/ Zeller out of the lineup this year. That means they are 23-17 SU when he does play. Walker had the big game Tuesday, but also keep an eye on Frank Kaminsky, who is averaging 19.9 points and 7.8 rebounds the L10 games. 

Meanwhile, Phoenix offers little reason for hope down the stretch. Clearly one of the five worst teams in basketball, they've dropped all three games since the Break and are just 2-8 SU their L10 overall. Defense, or rather lack of it, continues to be the primary concern. They allowed 130 points in an embarrassing effort Tuesday in Memphis. That marked the second time in three games they allowed 128 or more. Granted, all three games since the Break were on the road. But even at home, the team is giving up 111.7 PPG and is just 9-17 SU. This is a pretty short number to lay against a bad team. With the team well out of contention, HC Earl Watson is turning to his younger players. While I can't say I blame him, that likely means the losses are likely to continue to pile up. 10* Charlotte

8* Wisconsin (9:00 ET): In the buildup for this Thursday night Big 10 showdown, you're likely to hear plenty about Wisconsin "trending downward." Well, I'm not buying it. Sure, it's true that the Badgers have lost back to back games and four of their last five. But that one win happened to be my *10* Game of the Month, a 71-60 victory at Maryland's expense. That was two Sundays ago and since then, they've lost at both Ohio State and Michigan State. But are two conference road losses worth getting that upset about? I think not. Here at the Kohl Center, the team has lost only one time all year. That was to Northwestern on Feb 12. But still, they are +21.0 points per game compared to their visitors here in Madison. Iowa is likely feeling a bit "too good about itself" coming off their own win over Maryland last weekend. Lay the points. 

It is concerning that all four of Wisconsin's recent losses have come to unranked foes. But previously, they'd gone a perfect 19-0 SU vs. teams outside the top 25, winning by an average margin of 18.7 PPG. So what ails them now? Well, it's more about recent opponents getting hot from three-point range. Ohio State made 10 of 16 from behind the arc last Thursday, it's best percentage in over a decade. Michigan State wasn't nearly as hot Sunday, but Wisconsin certainly was cold. The Badgers have now been held below 44% shooting in nine consecutive contests, which must improve. But given the Iowa defense and the fact Wisky is still above 47% from the field at home, I expect that improvement to begin tonight!

Iowa is a really tough team to get a beat on. Saturday's win at Maryland was just their second "true" road win of the year. The other one came at Rutgers. Defensively, the Hawkeyes are not good. They're allowing over 80 PPG outside of Iowa City. They got a career best performance out of freshman Jordan Bohannan Saturday (24 points), which is unlikely to be repeated, as is the team's overall 8 for 12 three-point shooting from that last game. The Hawkeyes are 0-3 SU/ATS against the Badgers the previous two seasons, including an outright loss LY (as six-point favorites) at home. I cannot see them being competitive, let alone winning, in B2B road games against ranked foes. 8* Wisconsin

10* Southern Utah (8:35 ET): What in the world would possess a man (or woman!) to take a team like Southern Utah? Well, as I've stated previously, their opponent here (Eastern Washinhgton) happens to be one of the more fortunate teams in the entire country. Eastern Wash, despite a shiny looking 20-9 SU record, has only outscored its opponents by an average of 3.4 points per game this year. They've still managed to snub me a time here or there, most recently in an 82-72 win over Weber State last Thursday. But that was at home. Tonight, they're on the road and laying far more points than usual. In fact, this will be just the third time they've been favored on the road this year and the first by more than 3.5 points. Looking through Southern Utah's season (which admittedly is pretty ugly), you'll see that they are far more competitive at home. 

Though only 3-8 straight up at home, Southern Utah is being outscored by less than one point per game in those contests They average 82.5 PPG in here in Cedar City. Thus I can see them taking advantage of a leaky Eastern Washington defense that permits 76.7 PPG on the road. The Thunderbirds were able to match the oddsmakers projection for the 1st matchup vs. EWU, losing by "only" 15. I realize that included a "garbage time" comeback, but you can look for SUU to shoot a lot better tonight compared to that January game. They finished at just 35.8% at Eastern Washington. At home, they shoot 47.9% overall and 38.0% from three point range. With two games remaining, both at home, the Thunderbirds have a legit shot at finishing outside the Big Sky basement. All they need to do is win once and hope Idaho State loses out. 

I mentioned earlier that Eastern Washington has been a "lucky" team this year. The indespensible KenPom rankings have them as the third luckiest team in the nation. To help illustrate that point, they've gone 5-1 SU in overtime games this year including three wins in games that went to double or triple OT. Saturday's 89-77 win over Idaho State ensured the Eagles will be getting a 1st round bye in the upcoming conference tourney. Yes, they could still conceivably catch North Dakota for the regular season title, but that's unlikely due to North Dakota playing its final two games at home. Eastern Washington is just 5-8 SU in "true" road game this year, thus I certainly would not trust them as a favorite of this magnitude. 10* Southern Utah

8* Golden State (8:05 ET): I'm not afraid to "buy low" when there's some bad news and in the case of the Warriors, the bad news is that Kevin Durant is going to be out for at least the next four weeks. Let us not forget that w/o Durant this team set the regular season record for wins last year. They are certainly capable of continuing to win at their usual pace even w/o his services. That said, they do enter tonight's game in Chicago off a rare loss. Washington got them Tuesday, 112-108, but the Wizards are also a very good home team. I'm far less scared of the Bulls, who simply do not deserve to be in the same price range the Wizards were. Furthermore, Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU this season when off a loss, winning by an average margin of 15.4 PPG. Lay the points.

Chicago also suffered an outright loss as a favorite Tuesday. Only there's came here at home, 125-107 vs. Denver. Consider they actually led at halftime. While the Bulls had actually won their previous four games, there are plenty of reasons not to like this group moving forward. They seemed to be a "seller" at the trade deadline and HC Fred Hoiberg is openly talking about seeing what his younger players have to offer. I never liked the makeup of this team coming into the year and their best player, Jimmy Butler, has gone ice cold the L3 games. He's 18 of 53 from the floor and Hoiberg said he was never in a "rhythym" Tuesday vs. Denver. Like most Eastern Conference teams, the Bulls have been outscored over the course of this season.

These teams met not long before the All-Star Break and the Dubs prevailed easily, 123-92 as lofty 19-point favorites. Judging by the line for tonight's rematch, I think it's safe to say that the oddsmakers have overreacted to the Durant injury. Granted Butler nor Dwyane Wade played in last month's meeting. But it was the third straight time the Warriors have beaten the Bulls by double digits. Chicago's season-worst effort on the defensive end in the last game is an obvious concern here facing the league's top offense. Expect Steph Curry (remember him?) to take charge w/ Durant out of the lineup. Klay Thompson also had 28 points (six 3-pt FG's) in Oakland vs. the Bulls, a game where the Dubs also happened to be coming off a loss. 8* Golden State

8* UNLV (11:00 ET): The two Mountain West teams in question here experienced VERY different results in their respective last games. Of course, that means we can use those to our advantage as the team that experienced the much more unpleasant result (that would be UNLV) is now available at a far more affordable price than they ought to be. The Runnin' Rebels were run right off the court Saturday by Nevada, losing 94-58 here in Las Vegas. It was the Rebels' NINTH straight loss as clearly this program has fallen on hard times. As for Utah State, they are off an 89-58 drubbing of Air Force. Tonight marks the Aggies' regular season finale while UNLV still has one game left, at Fresno State, on Saturday. As bad as things have gotten for the Rebels, it is pretty shocking to see USU in the road favorite role. I'll take the points.

Utah State has nothing to play for here. The Aggies have won their last two games, which has created some distance between themselves and the bottom two in the MWC, San Jose State and UNLV. After a 2-6 SU start in conf play, USU has won five of nine. As I just stated, they've won two straight. One would have to go back to the non-conference portion of the schedule (when they were facing a series of non-board teams) to find the last time the Aggies won three in a row (Dec 6-19). This is just the second time they've been able to pull off B2B conference wins. After winning at San Jose State last Wednesday, the Aggies played by far their most complete game in MWC play, crushing Air Force by 31 in Logan. They shot nearly 60 percent from the field in that game, a far cry from what we've seen most of this season, especially on the road. For the record, the Aggies shoot just 43% from the field away from home and are 3-10 SU in those games. Tonight marks the first (and only) time this year that they will be a road fave.

Like Utah State on Saturday, I'm hoping Senior Night motivates UNLV to their strongest showing of the year. Clearly, it can't get any worse than what happened here on Saturday. Four of the Rebels' last five losses have now come by double digits. They haven't been a good shooting team this year, but recent opponents haven't been missing either. I know it was a 79-63 final when these teams met in Logan two months ago, but will Utah State really make 13 three-pointers again tonight? I think not. I also think that the Aggies may not be fully invested in this game being that it is their reg season finale. 8* UNLV

8* Boston (8:05 ET): This is a very important game for the Celtics as far as establishing themselves in the Eastern Conference hierarchy. They've already gotten a break w/ Toronto losing Kyle Lowry for the remainder of the regular season. One would now think the Celtics are a lock for the #2 seed in the East, though Washington may have something to say about that. Still, the team Boston is more concerned with is Cleveland, whom they trail by four games entering tonight's showdown. The Cavs had a great February, losing only two of 11 games and LeBron James didn't play in one of the losses. But it was also somewhat of an easy schedule and they haven't been on the road since the All-Star Break. They are 0-6 ATS this season coming off three or more consecutive home games.

Boston did itself no favors on Monday, losing here at home to Atlanta by a score of 114-98. They were 4.5-pt favorites. While the loss looks bad, note it was the second game of a back to back. They'd won in Detroit the previous night. Truth be told, neither of those L2 games were good shooting nights for the Celtics. Critical to Monday's loss was Isaiah Thomas going just 4 of 21 from the field. I expect both him and the team to improve tonight against a Cleveland defense that is nothing more than middle of the road. In fact, the defending World Champs come into this game ranked a pretty ugly 20th in defensive efficiency. Boston averages a strong 109.5 points per game at home for the year. Though it hasn't been enough, in two games vs. Cleveland this year, they've averaged 120 PPG.

Both Cavs wins over the Celtics this season saw strong efforts from Kevin Love, who is not in the lineup right now. The Champs have bolstered their roster in recent days, but it may take a bit for the new pieces (Deron Williams, etc) to gel. The Cavs have actually been outscored on the road this year (give up 108.4 PPG!), so I'm not sure they should be favored here. The two earlier season meetings w/ Boston were both played in Cleveland. The Celtics are 5-2 ATS following a double digit loss this year and considering they're off a home loss and have a five-game West Coast swing looming, motivation should be high for the home team in this nationally televised affair. 8* Boston

10* Over Mavericks/Hawks (7:35 ET): This is a VERY low total by 2017 NBA standards. In the entire month of February, there were only FOUR games to close w/ a total of 199 pts or less. The last three all went Over the total (more on those in second). In fact, going back to January 20th, seven of the eight times we've seen a total close at 199 pts or less, the game has gone Over. The last two times this situation presented itself, these two teams happened to be involved. In each case, the opponent for Atlanta and Dallas was Utah. On Feb 6, Atlanta was blitzed by Utah 120-95 (here at home), so that was an easy Over. Three days later, Dallas hosted the Jazz and it was a 112-105 game (in their favor). There has not been a total of 199 pts or less since, a span of almost three weeks! Despite recent results on both sides, I'm on the Over here.

Both teams, as you might expect, come into this game riding long Under streaks. Hence, the low total. Dallas has actually gone Under six straight times. They've failed to break 100 pts in the last five games, something that is exceedingly rare in today's NBA. They still rank near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency, but their numbers are actually up significantly after a terrible start to the year. The team's total points per game average still exceeds tonight's O/U line. The last four times the Mavs have seen an O/U line lower than 199 points, the Over has cashed. While they scored only 82 pts in a meeting earlier this season vs. Atlanta, it was a poor shooting night all-around and they didn't have Seth Curry in the lineup.

The Hawks have gone Under five straight times.  But consider that their home games this year have averaged right around 210 PPG! These last five games have seen the Hawks average only 96.6 PPG, which is well below their season average of 103.4 PPG. They've shot just 41% those L5 games, a number which should drastically improve tonight due to Dallas' defensive numbers on the road (48.6% FG against including 41.2% from three-point range). Atlanta has gone Over its last three times when the total is below 200 pts. They scored 114 points in an upset of Boston Monday night. The total here is far lower than what we usually see for a Hawks game. In fact, the last three times we've seen an O/U line below 200 pts with them involved, the Over has cashed. 10* Over Mavericks/Hawks

10* St. Joseph's (7:00 ET): It has been an absolutely miserable season for St. Joe's, one that has seen them lose numerous players to injury. It's a sharp contrast to last year when they were one of the top ATS teams in the entire country. Entering tonight's home finale, the Hawks have lost eight in a row. Saturday's 61-60 loss at St. Louis (were favored by 4.5) was probably the most embarrassing setback of them all. Rather than attempt to tie the game (were down three w/ only seconds remaining), James Demery elected to make a simple layup, leaving his team w/ a one-point loss. The result also leaves St. Joe's tied w/ Duquesne for the bottom spot in the Atlantic 10 Conference. But if there's anything that could provide a little boost to this downtrodden program right now, it's Senior Night. I'll take the points.

Rhode Island provides the opposition for St. Joe's tonight. While they destroyed the Hawks 88-58 in the first meeting (back on 1.3), this is obviously a road game. The Rams have won their L4 A-10 roadies plus are coming off a big 69-59 home victory over VCU on Saturday. They are trying to lock down the #3 seed for the upcoming conference tourney. But might they be coming into this game a little overconfident? Neither they nor their opponents have shot the ball well these L5 games. Remember that this is a team that lost 53-43, at home, to Fordham not that long ago. URI couldn't miss the first time they played St. Joe's, hitting an incredible 16 of 30 three-point attempts. For the year, they average just six makes per game from behind the arc. They'll score a lot less in tonight's rematch. 

While St. Joe's has not won since late January, they've generally been competitive. Four of the previous seven losses have been by seven points or fewer. As bad as things have gotten, this is just the fourth time we find the Hawks getting points at home this year. Not only that, but it will be the MOST points that they've gotten in any home game so far. Rhode Island's win over VCU coupled with their "bubble" status has them overvalued in this situation. 10* St. Joe's

8* Providence (8:30 ET):  Major revenge spot here for the Friars, who lost 64-63 to DePaul earlier in the year, on a last second three-point play. Up until last week, that was the Blue Demons' lone win in Big East play! (They beat Georgetown two points Wednesday). Both teams have been hot at the betting window, Providence especially, but considering the revenge angle and their "bubble status," I expect a rout from the home team here. This is the final home game and Senior Night for Providence, so clearly all the motivational factors you look for, are present here. Lay the points. 

Admittedly, Providence has done most of its damage at the betting window as an underdog. It's not often we find them favored and this will easily be the most points they've been asked to lay to any Big East opponent. But that makes sense given that they are hosting the last place team. They are just 2-2 SU/ATS as a fave in conf play, but did cover the last time in the role, which was a 75-63 home win over Xavier. In that first meeting w/ the Blue Demons, they led by nine at halftime, but were ultimately undone by 20 turnovers. They haven't turned it over that many times in a game since. In Saturday's 73-69 win over Marquette, they rallied from a double digit deficit, a huge win. Seeking revenge for a road loss, the Friars are now 6-1 ATS this season. They have also covered their last seven games overall! 

So DePaul's two conference wins have come by a total of three points. They are being outscored by 11.5 points per game in Big East play and average only 62.7 PPG on the road. Look for them to struggle again offensively tonight as Providence is giving up only 63.8 PPG at home this year. After being competitive in both games last week (lost by only three at home to Seton Hall on Saturday), look for the Blue Demons to revert back to past form. They'd lost five straight by double digits before the win over Georgetown. While a perfect 4-0 ATS the L4 games, two of those saw them come in as large underdogs. Providence knows they let one "slip away" the first time these met and isn't about to let that happen again. 8* Providence

8* Creighton (8:00 ET): It is not a good scene right now in Omaha. Creighton's starting point guard Maurice Watson has been arrested for alleged sexual assault and less important is that the team is on a two-game losing streak. This is the backdrop for the home finale tonight against St. John's. Clearly, it would be easy to dismiss the Blue Jays as double digit favorites here, but the contrarian in me sees an opportunity to "buy low." The Blue Jays remain one of the most efficient offenses in the game and note that Watson had actually been out dating back to Feb 6 due to a season-ending knee injury. So while the latest news is very serious, the team had already been w/o him for several games. St. John's does not scare me, particularly on the road. Lay the points.

Now there are signs that missing Watson was significantly hurting Creighton. They've lost five of nine overall, including three of five since his knee injury. But several of those losses were close, most notably a 68-66 loss to Providence last Wednesday, which was the last time the Blue Jays played a home game. Few teams are going to win at Villanova, which is where they played over the weekend. That 79-63 loss is a little misleading in the sense that it was actually a tie game at halftime. The only other time this season that Creighton found itself coming off B2B losses was on January 28th when they routed DePaul. They have covered 14 of their last 18 games against teams w/ a losing record. They come in averaging 84.3 PPG at home and already beat St. John's earlier in the year, 85-72 as seven-point road favorites. 

The road has generally been unkind to the Johnnies. Six of their seven Big East road games have resulted in double digit losses. They are off a win over Georgetown, but that was at home. They can thank 22 Hoyas' turnovers for that one, not to mention the fact they were able to shoot 7 of 13 from three-point range. I would not expect to see a repeat of either of those numbers here tonight against a desperate and motivated Creighton side. In that first meeting, Creighton really dominated and led by 18 at the half. Chris Mullin's bench could be a little thinner than normal here as Darien Williams is questionable w/ an ankle injury. 8* Creighton

10* Utah (8:05 ET): Incredibly, I still think most bettors are severely underrating the Jazz. I took them Sunday and "all they did" there was hand Washington its first regulation loss at home in over two months! Impressively, it was a game Utah dominated throughout. They led by as many as 24 in the second half. They destroyed the Wizards on the glass and got to the free throw line far more frequently. Gordon Hayward led the way w/ 30 pts, but let's not "sell short" Rudy Gobert's performance as the Frechman had 15 pts, 20 rebounds and four blocks, a very nice statline. The Jazz have not only posted three straight double digts wins, but they continue to lead the league in points allowed (95.4) and I think are a great bet tonight in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder also come into tonight riding a three-game win streak. But their 118-110 win over New Orleans Sunday was a little tougher than the final score seems to indicate. Russell Westbrook did have 41 points and another triple double, but that final margin represented the most points OKC led by the entire game. It wasn't until the final minutes that they started to pull away. In fact, it was no more than a two possession game (w/ the Pelicans leading) most of the game. As I've mentioned many times before, the Thunder's offensive efficiency has gone down the toilet w/o Kevin Durant. The team ranks a shocking 20th in that category and is actually being outscored on a per possession basis over the course of the season. Tonight marks a big step up in class from the three previous opponents: New York, the Lakers and New Orleans. 

Utah has revenge here for a two-point home loss last month. They are 70-42 ATS in all revenge situations the L3 seasons, including 36-11 if the loss was at home. Rodney Hood did not play for the Jazz in that last meeting. Utah is a solid road team (17-11 straight up!) and they are 2-0 SU/ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. I just don't like this Thunder team beyond Westbrook and Victor Oladipo remains unavailable. Look for OKC to struggle offensively in this matchup. 10* Utah

10* Over Heat/Mavericks (8:35 ET): Both of these proud franchises (met in the 2011 NBA Finals) appeared on their way to massive rebuilding seasons early on. The famed "Big 3" of Miami (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) are all long. But after an 11-30 start to the season, the Heat shockingly ripped off 13 consecutive wins and covers to get back into the playoff race. They did lose to both Philadelphia and Orlando before the All-Star Break, but then upset Houston as 10-point dogs. They've continued to surge w/ wins over both Atlanta and Indiana in convincing fashion to start the second half. Dallas probably dug itself far too great a hole to get back in the Western Conference race, but similar to Miami, they've been a lot better over the last month or so. Since starting 10-24, they've gone a respectable 13-11 in the New Year. 

By 2017 standards, tonight's game has a very low total. The average total for a Miami game this year has been 203.8 while it's been right at 200.0 for Dallas. So from these teams perspective, it's not that low. Both are in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency, though the Mavericks have actually risen up significantly after that awful start. Dallas also ranks near the bottom of pace of play. Their last five games have all stayed Under w/ neither they or the opponent scoring 100 pts in each of the last three. They beat New Orleans 96-83 on Saturday as the Pelicans got next to nothing outside of its top two superstars. Thus the total here is low. It also helps that the last five meetings between these two have all stayed Under.

Part of Miami's incredible 13-game run was a 99-95 home win over Dallas back on January 19th. That also marks the last time the Heat have failed to score at least 100 pts in a game. It's been a total turnaound the past month or so and they are averaging over 110 PPG their last five contest. It should be noted that it's been almost three weeks since we've seen a NBA game w/ any total this low. Most have involved Utah, but the Mavs have been involved in four such games w/ a total of 200 pts or less, two of them vs. the Jazz. The Over is 7-1 the L8x we've seen a NBA Total at 200 pts or less going back to January 20th. I anticipate both defenses will regress coming off strong performances. 10* Over Heat/Mavericks

10* Virginia (7:00 ET): North Carolina is as hot as any team in the country currently. They should find themselves in the Top 5 when the new poll is released later today. It's been four straight wins and covers for the Tar Heels, one of them being a 65-41 destruction of Virginia in Chapel Hill. Tonight is the rematch at John Paul Jones Arena. The Hoos picked up a much needed win Saturday, turning in one of their better offensive efforts in some time at the expense of hapless NC State. I also happen to fell that Tony Bennett's team is underrated as I still consider them among the top 20 in the country. The revenge angle is strong here and as I suspected might happen UNC comes in as an underserved favorite. Virginia is still the top defensive team in the country. Take the points. 

When these teams met nine days ago in Chapel Hill, it was all Tar Heels. Virginia had an atrocious shooting night, making only 27.8% of their overall field goal attempts, including 2 of 10 from three point range. It was a 65-41 final, a game where UNC was a six-point home favorite. The Virginia offense would again be held below 50 pts in a home loss to Miami last Monday (overtime game!), but then bounced back w/ what was definitely one of the better efforts in sometime. Saturday at NC State saw the Hoos shoot 48.9% overall including a blistering 11 of 16 from three-point range. The team was due to start shooting better and I think Saturday will be a big confidence boost. Defensively, there are no issues here. HC Bennett's "pack line" defense gives up the fewest number of points per game in the country at 55.8. That numbers dips down to 51.1 in home games w/ their oppnents shooting just 36.7%. 

North Carolina followed its win over Virginia by beating Louisville pretty handily last Wednesday. The L'ville game was also at home. Then they went to Pitt on Saturday and won 85-67 as eight-point chalk. Clearly, HC Roy Williams has his team playing well at the right time, but tonight marks the 1st time they've had to play B2B road games in a three day span since ACC play began. Not surprisingly, this will be the 1st time that Virginia has been a home dog all season. In fact, it's been a very long time since they've been a dog to anyone in Charlottesville. Over the L3 seasons, they are 6-3 ATS taking points, all of those being road games. This game means more to Virginia than it does North Carolina, who hosts Duke in the reg season finale on Saturday. 10* Virginia

10* Charlotte (9:35 ET): The Hornets (finally!) won a game yday, beating the depleted Kings 99-85 in Sacramento (closed as 4-pt favorites). I think they're being severely undervalued here in the second game of the back to back against the Clippers. Of course, losing 12 of your previous 13 games straight up while going 2-10-1 ATS will do that. But I made the case yday and will continue to do so today, that right now Charlotte is a great "buy low" team. Some might want to say the same about the Clippers, who are off B2B losses (Golden State and San Antonio), the latest coming in Chris Paul's return to the floor. But Paul being back has driven the price up way too high in my estimation. A SU win, but non-cover for LA is your most likely result here. Take the points.

"Chris hadn't played and you could see that. We played on one side of the floor for most of the night (Friday). It felt like the same way when Blake (Griffin) came back the first game. We were moving, but we just weren't in sync." Those words come by way of Clippers HC Doc Rivers. I agree w/ the notion that it will take some time for Paul to fully integrate himself back into the lineup. He scored 17 points to go along with six rebounds and five assists vs. San Antonio. The 105-97 loss snapped the team's 5-game ATS win streak. This will obviously be the first time laying this many points in awhile. The last two times they were asked to lay 10 or more was against the likes of Orlando and the Lakers. While Paul being back certainly accounts for "something," Charlotte is definitely a higher caliber opponent than those previously mentioned foes. 

The Hornets won Saturday despite shooting only 40% from the floor. They actually led by 21 going into the fourth quarter. That makes it three consecutive games they've taken a double digit lead into the 4Q and all of those games were on the road. They blew the first two, at Toronto and Detroit. However, the vast majority of their losses during the recent skid you'll notice were close games. This team still ranks fifth in the East in point differential and net efficiency rating. While they've had little to no success against the Clippers in recent years, the last meeting was decided by only five points in Charlotte and the Hornets actually checked in as the slight favorite. Good value on the road dog here. 10* Charlotte

8* Utah (5:05 ET):  Washington was perhaps the hottest team in the league going into the All-Star Break. They'd won 18 of 21. So that made Friday's 120-112 loss at Philadelphia somewhat surprising. John Wall turned in his 18th 20-10 (pts-assists) game of the year while Bradley Beal scored a game-high 40 pts. But the rest of the team contributed very little and the Wizards actually trailed by double digits going into the fourth quarter. While Washington is third in the East, tonight's opponent (Utah) is fourth in the stronger West. I don't think that the Jazz get nearly the credit they deserve as they are absolutely a top five team in the entire league, by my ratings. Their second half started w/ a takedown of Milwaukee on the road and this is absolutely an instance of the better team getting points.

Washington has suffered just ONE home loss since December 6th. It came in overtime against Cleveland on Feb 6, a game which saw LeBron James make an insane buzzer beater (falling out of bounds, banked in) at the end of regulation. So it's easy to understand why they are favored here. Utah is surprisingly just 3-11 ATS when priced as an underdog this season as they've averaged only 94.6 PPG in those contests. Their defense also gets significantly worse as they allow 101.7 PPG as opposed to just 93.4 PPG when favored. That being said, it certainly does appear as if the sharp money has spoken on this game w/ the majority of tickets coming in on the Wizards, but the line dropping anyway. To me, it's a pick 'em matchup, even factoring in the home court. While the difference between the teams' offensive efficiencies is somewhat neglibile, the Jazz have a major edge on the defensive end where they rank third in the league in efficiency. 

No team allows fewer points per game than the Jazz. They held Milwaukee to 95 Friday night, the third straight game holding a foe below 100. The only teams in the league giving up fewer points per possession are San Antonio and Golden State and the difference is close. After Utah, there's a pretty large drop off in points per possession. Offensively, they shot 50% against the Bucks and the game was never really in doubt following an 18-2 first quarter run. Washington giving up 120 pts to the 30th ranked team in offensive efficiency (Philly) was not a good look and I'll point out that the Wiz's winning run was built up by playing a LOT of bad teams. 8* Utah

10* UAB (1:00 ET): Middle Tennessee is the top dog in Conference USA and truth be told, one of the few mid-majors capable of winning a NCAA Tournament game this year. But this is going to be a tough spot for them visiting UAB. While they've been off since last Saturday, this will be the Blue Raiders' third consecutive road contest. UAB has also been off for a week and the Blazers will undoubtedly treat this as their biggest game of the year. Not just because it's a visit from MTSU, but also because they're desperate to end a season-worst three game losing streak. Prior to a 60-49 loss on New Year's Day, UAB had covered four straight head to head w/ the Blue Raiders. They were 8.5-pt road dogs in that game, so when you factor in the change in venue, this appears to be a really solid value. Take the points.

Middle Tennessee has lost only one conference game and four games total this season. Three of those losses took place before X-Mas, so overall they've won 14 of 15 w/ the only loss coming by three at insanely hot UTEP. They are coming off a 97-point effort vs. Marshall, which was their highest scoring effort against any D-I opponent all season. However, concerning is that they also allowed the Thundering Herd to score 60 pts - in the second half! That win clinched the #1 seed for the upcoming conference tourney, so the Blue Raiders don't have much to play for here down the stretch. That makes them a shaky bet laying points, particularly on the road. Not only is MTSU 0-2 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts, they are 1-4 ATS after scoring 80+ pts. Conference USA has a lot of bad teams, so some of their margins of victory this season aren't really as impressive as you might think.

UAB is just 1-5 SU/ATS in the month of February and they were actually favored in FOUR of those games. So they've certainly been falling short of the oddsmakers' expectations. That's also the case when priced as a dog as their record in that role this season is just 1-6 ATS. But this will be the FIRST time they've gotten points at home all year. They are 10-3 SU here w/ an avg MOV of 13.2 points per game, which is obviously impressive. I view this as an excellent "buy low" opportunity w/ the team shockingly off three straight DD losses. The last two were on the road. Before losing here to Old Dominion on 2.11, the Blazers had won 26 straight C-USA home games! 10* UAB

8* UC Irvine (10:30 ET): I think most people would consider UC Irvine the class of a weak Big West Conference. However, the Anteaters now find themselves in a first place tie w/ UC Davis (both 9-5 SU) after dropping a game on the road Thursday (as 5.5-pt favorites) to Cal State Fullerton, 56-54. It was a game they led by six midway through the second half. Given that they held CS Fullerton to 31.4% from the field for the game, including 4 of 21 from three-point range, it's a game the Anteaters probably feel they "should" have won. An interesting thing I found in breaking down that box score is that while CS Fullerton shot slightly worse than did UC Irvine, they also had 21 more attempts from the field (offensive rebounding!). Rarely do you see a discrepancy like that.

With the Anteaters somewhat desperate to bounce back, the line for tonight's matchup against Cal State Northridge looks far too low to me. Let's start w/ the fact that UC Irvine won the season's first meeting 105-73, on the road! While topping the century mark obviously grabbed the headlines there (season high in points scored), it was also another in a long line of solid efforts on the defensive floor for the Anteaters as well. They held Northridge to just 30.3% shooting for the game. Ranking 37th nationally in points per game allowed (65.1), they allow only 60.6 PPG at home. In terms of field goal percentage defense, the numbers get even more impressive as opponents are shooting only 38.3% against HC Turner's outfit. Meanwhile, CS Northridge's defensive numbers look somewhat horrific in comparison as they allow 81.3 PPG.

Making life even more challenging for the underdog here is that they are now w/o starter Rakim Lubin, who was lost for the season due to an Achilles tear. This will also be the Matadors' second road game in three nights. Thursday, their lousy defense again cost them as they gave up 96 points in an ugly loss at UC Davis. The two road games in three nights scenario tends to be a killer on most College teams more often than not, but having to do so against the top two teams in your league is particularly brutal. Throw in the fact that it's Homecoming tonight on campus and UC Irvine should be extra motivated. It just looks like the oddsmakers were "asleep" in setting a low line for this one. 8* UC Irvine

10* Under T'wolves/Rockets (9:05 ET): Playing the Under when Houston is involved can certainly be tricky. I was happy to see them score a ton Thursday night as they spoiled the debut of DeMarcus Cousins in New Orleans w/ a 129-99 thumping of the Pelicans. I guessed, correctly so, that NO would be overvalued in the wake of the Cousins trade. Of course, let's not sell the Rockets short either; they are - by most objective measures - the third best team in the league right now, behind only Golden State and San Antonio. Much of their success is owed to the James Harden-led offense, which is second in the league in both points per game and efficiency (trailing only GSW in both areas). But, the O/U Line for tonight's game vs. Minnesota looks a bit high to me. Take the Under. 

The T'Wolves, like the Rockets, started their second half w/ a win. Their assignment was far easier though as they hosted Dallas last night. The 95-84 win saw them completely overwhelm the undersized and undermanned Mavs in the paint. It also matched the second fewest pts given up in a game by Minnesota all season. Clearly, we shouldn't expect the defensive numbers to look so rosy here, but it is worth noting that after holding only five of their first 53 opponents below 90 pts, the T'wolbes have now done just that twice in the past five games! Maybe Tom Thibodeau's approach is starting to take hold on this young team, which by the way is better than it's record shows.

Speaking to what looks like an inflated O/U line, the last time these teams met (Jan 11th), the O/U line for that game was "only" 218 pts. It did sneak Over as Minnesota pulled off a surprising 119-105 win at home. It was the eighth time in the past nine head to head meetings that the Over cashed. But the T'wolves scoring dips noticeably on the road and the shift in the total is significant because the Under is 5-1 for them this year when the O/U line is 220 pts or higher. After starting February by going Over in eight straight times, the Under has cashed in B2B T'wolves games. When you add up what both teams score and allow per game, neither total average exceeds what the O/U line is here. 10* Under T'wolves/Rockets

10* Elon (7:00 ET): Today marks the end of the regular season in the Colonial, so all the home teams should be fairly "fired up" on their respective Senior Days. But none more so than Elon, who is trying to solidify its place among the top four in the upcoming CAA Tournament. The Phoenix are off a heartbreaker Thursday night as they fell here at home in double overtime, 105-104, to Northeastern. They fell prey to a freshman, Bolden Brace, hitting 10 three-pointers in a stunning display that led to a career-high 40 points. Losing at home when you score 81 points in regulation and turn the ball over just three times is pretty frustrating. Luckily, Elon will have Delaware to kick around tonight. The Blue Hens are playing their second road game in three days, having just lost at College of Charleston Thursday. It was their second straight double digit defeat. Lay the points. 

Delaware has just five conference wins, putting them in second to last place, ahead of only Drexel. Three of the wins came in a row earlier this month and one of them came at Elon's expense. It was another OT loss for Elon, this one coming by a score of 76-74 as seven-point chalk. That was also the first of three straight wins that all came by two points or less for Delaware. As alluded to above, they have since regressed w/ B2B double digit losses to William & Mary and Charleston. The road has generally been unkind to the Blue Hens this season as they are just 3-13 SU away from home and getting outscored by about 14 PPG. Looking at the line for the first matchup between these teams and then factoring in the change in venue, this looks to be a really solid value on Elon.

Senior Night should obviously have the home team highly motivated here as should Thursday's loss. In the first go around w/ Delaware, the Phoenix shot only 40.7% from the field. We should see a stark rise in offensive production here as they are averaging 82.3 PPG at home this season. But it's largely been the defensive end of the floor where Elon has been excelled this year, at least in CAA play. They are tops in the conference, holding opponents to just 42.3% from the field. Thursday's game vs. Northeastern marked an "off night" as they allowed the Huskies to shoot 50%, the highest percentage by an opponent during the conf schedule. Previously, they'd held 10 of 11 opponents below 45% from the field. They are 9-1 SU this year when holding the opponent below 40%, not a surprising record, but what is key is that Delaware shoots just 39.9% on the road. Elon is also the top defensive rebounding team in the conference. They are 6-1 ATS this season after allowing 80+ points the previous game, so again, this looks like a clear bounce back spot for them. 10* Elon

10* Charlotte (5:05 ET): It appears as if the Hornets are falling apart. I took them on Thursday, getting 4.5 points at Detroit. They led the Pistons by as many 18, but ended up not even covering despite the game going into overtime. This was the second consecutive game where they blew a double digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost. The other was at Toronto right before the Break. As a result, Charlotte now finds itself nine games below .500 and 3.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the East. So, it's now or never. I continue to lean on the fact that they still sport the East's fifth best point differential and sixth best net efficiency rating. Having covered only TWO of their previous 14 games, isn't it about time that the Hornets are just due? Lay the points.

Sacramento surprised everyone on Thursday, winning the 1st game of the post Boogie Cousins era. They were seven-point dogs here at home against Denver. Honestly, I was not all that shocked as you knew they were likely to be written off by the public and oddsmakers in the wake of the debacle that was the Cousins trade. GM Vlade Divac appears to be not very good at his job. Now it's time for reality to set in for the Kings, who aren't likely to be a very competitive team down the stretch. Off a double digit win this year, the team's record is just 1-5 SU and ATS. I don't see them shooting as well as they did Thursday night (52.3%), not w/ the likes of Buddy Hield, Tyreke Evans and Darren Collison being heavily relied upon. It was a break facing Denver, who ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. The Kings rank 24th in that category.

Charlotte has shown that they can play well. At least for three quarters, they looked quite good against both Toronto and Detroit, taking double digit leads into the fourth quarter. Both games were on the road. In my analysis for the Detroit game, I did note the Hornets' awful record when priced as an underdog this year (now 1-16 SU!). Well, they're favored today, so we don't have to worry about that. I continue to believe that the time is right to "buy low" on this team. This is also a revenge spot from a 109-106 home loss last month as seven-point favorites. 10* Charlotte