8* Atlanta (7:35 ET):  Tuesday saw me go w/ Dallas (and win!) as they hosted an unrested Toronto team.  Perhaps it's too easy just to credit the situational edge as to why the Mavericks pulled away late, turning a three-point deficit going into the fourth quarter into a seven-point win and cover.  But I don't think it's a coincidence and now the Mavs find themselves in the exact same situation last night's opponents were in.  While Dallas is 9-4 SU this year playing in the second night of back to backs, the opponent tonight presents a far greater challenge as rested Atlanta looks to get things going following a somewhat sluggish start to the second half of the season. Lay the points.

After that incredible run in the month of January, the Hawks had actually dropped three of four overall going into Sunday afternoon's date in Milwaukee.  They got back on track there, beating the Bucks 97-86 as five-point favorites, doing so despite shooting just 40.2 percent from the field.   One of the most impressive things about Atlanta's season to date is their 14-5 ATS mark against the Western Conference (15-4 SU).  They're also 21-5 ATS when taking on a team w/ a winning record.  Well-rested and 25-4 SU at home for the year, this is a situation the Hawks should be able to take advantage of, not to mention this is league's best team ATS at 67.3 percent.

These teams already played once this season w/ Atlanta winning in Dallas, 105-102 as 4.5-point dogs.  That win came all the way back before XMas and what's interesting for the rematch is who might be out.  Dallas looks to be missing both Chandler Parsons and Tyson Chandler.  I don't think Rajon Rondo is long for this team either, considering his relatively poor play to this point and "blowup" w/ HC Rick Carlisle last night. It is concerning that Atlanta might be without Jeff Teague (illness), but consider he was out of the lineup the first time these teams played and the wildly underrated Dennis Schroeder contributed a career-high 22 points.  So with or without Teague, the Hawks should be just fine. 8* Atlanta

8* Orlando (7:05 ET):  There can be no denying that the Magic have played much better since firing Jacque Vaughn.   That's a fairly predictable trend in NBA circles as most of the time you'll find losing teams start to play a little harder following a coaching change.  Of course, it's also helped that they've played the Lakers, Knicks and 76ers, all here at home, since James Borrego took over.  The big difference has come on the defensive end as in the six games under Borrego, Orlando is allowing 9.6 points per game less than they did under Vaughn. That includes 88.3 PPG allowed the L3 games overall, giving them their longest win streak of the season. While most will be eager to call for this run to end, I'm just not a big believer in Miami, particularly laying points on the road.  

Whatever good was derived from the deal that brought Goran Dragic to Miami was quickly nullified by the news of Chris Bosh missing the rest of the season.  I've said it before, but the Heat are just not a very good basketball team.  They are 28th in points, last in rebounding (still, despite the emergence of Hassan Whiteside) and 28th in assists.  What's kept the alive for the playoffs is a weak Eastern Conference first and foremost, plus a defense that's allowing just 96.8 PPG (4th best).  However, a 92.7 per game scoring average on the road has to make one fearful of laying points on the road w/ this bunch.  As a favorite this year, home or road, the Heat are a money-losing proposition at 8-12 ATS.

You can criticize Orlando's recent schedule, but is Miami's any better?  I'd say the answer is no considering their two wins since the All-Star Break have come at the expense of the Knicks and 76ers.  They lost at home to New Orleans, by double digits, despite the Pelicans not having the services of Anthony Davis or Ryan Anderson.  Consider that the night before Orlando (who I took) pulled out a SU win over the Pelicans as 5.5-pt dogs.  The road team has taken the first two matchups between these Southeast Division rivals, so I'd say its "high time" for the home team to come through.  The Heat are 3-7 ATS this year following a double digit win (Note: they beat Philadelphia 119-108 Monday).  8* Orlando.

10* William & Mary (7:00 ET) - By virtue of their 80-78 win over Hofstra on Sunday (were 4.5-pt dogs), W&M pulled itself into a four-way tie atop the Colonial. Remember that the Tribe are one of only a handful of teams never to have made the NCAA Tournament.  Comparatively speaking, their remaining schedule in the regular is pretty easy as they have two home games lined up against Towson and Drexel, neither of whom is in the upper half of the conference.  Up first is Towson, a team that William & Mary beat on the road, 85-72 (-6), back on January 17th.  Therefore, I'm a little surprised that this line isn't a tiny bit higher. Especially considering Towson comes in having dropped five of six.  Lay the points. 

Looking at the tiebreaker situation, William & Mary is in good shape.  They swept both James Madison and UNC Wilmington.  Only Northeastern is a concern as they split with them.  So the players should be highly motivated to win these last two games.  I'm a bit surprised that the Tribe hasn't been a little better at the betting window this season, given that the majority of their losses have come on the road and were close. But don't be afraid to lay the points as they're 11-1 SU at home and outscoring teams by almost 20 points per game!  Towson just dropped a pair of games at home last week, including one on Saturday to UNC Wilmington despite shooting above 51 percent. This is a team that shoots just 39% from the field on the road, for the season. So they're unlikely to have even close to the offensive efficiency they did Saturday. Meanwhile, William & Mary ranks in the top six nationally in YTD field goal percentage at 49.4%.   

The first time these teams met, William & Mary shot a blistering 55.6% from the field en route to 85 pts, their second most in a CAA game this season.  I just don't see Towson being able to to keep up here, given their 60.7 PPG scoring average on the road.  The Tigers have had a really bad season, losing 16 of 21 games following a 7-1 SU start.  They're more likely to be pointing towards Saturday's game vs. Delaware, which is Senior Night, than this one. This should turn into a blowout.  10* William & Mary

8* Utah State (9:30 ET):  This would be a revenge spot for Utah State, who comes into tonight in fine form.  The Aggies have won four in a row, the most recent victory coming Saturday at home vs. Fresno State by a score of 85-79 (were 5-point favorites). That was another revenge spot for them and they've now covered the spread in every game during the current win streak as well.  Back on January 24th in Vegas, they lost by only a deuce in overtime, after falling behind by eight points at halftime.  Missed free throws really hurt the Aggies that night, but the good news for tonight is that they won't have to deal w/ UNLV's leading scorer Rashad Vaughn (17.6 PPG), who remains out w/ a knee injury. Lay the points.

The Rebels come off an upset of New Mexico (as five-point underdogs) in "The Pit," which normally is no small feat, but the Lobos are down this year and Utah State had already done the same earlier in the year.  Without Vaughn, UNLV still shot 10 of 17 from three-point range, it's best percentage against a D-I opponent this season. A career-high 22 points from Patrick McCaw was also key.  I do not expect either facet to be duplicated tonight.  Before going into Albuquerque, the Rebels had dropped three of their last four.  They'd lost their first two games w/out Vaughn, including a weak 48-point effort at home in a loss to Boise State last Wednesday. 

Vaughn led the way w/ 31 points in the first matchup of these teams this season, so his absence will loom large for the rematch.  UNLV was just 1-7 SU in "true" road games heading into the weekend, so the odds of them winning twice away from home in a four-day span seem small.  Utah State is 10-4 SU this year in Logan and with B2B road games of their own looming, winning here becomes imperative.  They are holding visitors to just 61.4 points per game this year.  In a battle of two teams that have found great success at the betting window lately, I'll go w/ the one that's been winning straight up more in what's actually a triple revenge spot.  8* Utah State

10* Dallas (8:35 ET):  This is a really tough spot for a Toronto team that lost after blowing a late lead last night in New Orleans, who was without Anthony Davis.  Meanwhile, Dallas was a nice winner for me their last time out.  They defeated Charlotte here at home, 92-81, just barely covering a much larger spread than what they're being asked to lay here.  Given the fact they average 106.9 PPG at home (ironically, same number as the Raptors average on the road), I look for the home team to win (and cover) a relatively high-scoring affair against an unrested foe.

Toronto has now lost B2B games since their impressive win at Atlanta to start the second half.  In those two losses, they've averaged just 86.5 points per game on an ugly 37.3 percent shooting.  They were actually blown out Houston the night after Dallas beat the Rockets here at home, so that certainly doesn't bode well for tonight.  Nor does the fact they've already lost at home to the Mavs earlier this year, despite Dallas only scoring 36 points in the paint in that one.  Situationally speaking, the Raptors have not fared well in spots such as this one.  They're 0-6 ATS after playing their last three games on the road.  Last night in New Orleans, they led by as many as 18 points, but couldn't close despite the Pelicans missing two of their top four scorers, one of them their best player.

Dallas will see Amare Stoudemire make his debut tonight.  Now that he's been freed from the abyss known as the Knicks, I look for an uptick in production from him moving forward.  Toronto allows over 104 PPG on the road, so despite not having Chandler Parsons, the Mavs' offense should be just fine here.  Starting in place of Parsons, Richard Jefferson actually posted a double-double Sunday against Charlotte.  Playing in the tougher conference, a win here would mean more to the home team.  10* Dallas

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  We're seeing a little regression from the Warriors of late, which is predictable, but their recent road play is a cause for concern.  They've failed to cover six of seven away games since January 30th, losing outright three times, including to Indiana Sunday night.  Their only cover on the road this month came at the expense of a Sacramento team that was playing for a lame duck coach at the time.  They have not broken 100 pts in three straight road games.  I realize Washington has its own set of problems, as in three straight losses (2-8 SU L10), the last two coming in blowout fashion. But having bombed at the betting window lately, I'd say they are due to at least stick within the number here.

At 3-11 ATS/4-10 SU their L14 games, the Wizards are in trouble.  They're clearly the fifth place team in the Eastern Conference and with Cleveland on a rapid ascension, upward mobility is unlikely.   Facing the best team in the league seems like an unlikely place for them to turn things around, but they are 20-9 SU at home and haven't been this big of an underdog here all season long. 

While Bradley Beal remains out for the Wiz, the real key for them in this one is likely the absence of Steph Curry for Golden State.  Curry didn't play Sunday when the the Warriors lost to the Pacers and is officially listed as questionable for tonight. I'd bet on HC Steve Kerr resting him for the big Thursday night showdown in Cleveland, so that also makes this a bit of a look ahead.  Look, we all knew that the Warriors would start to come down from their lofty perch eventually.  Their numbers from the first half are just too difficult to sustain over the long-term, so don't be surprised if the (slight) regression continues here.  8* Washington

8* Alabama (7:00 ET):  The Crimson Tide is coming off a tough overtime loss (66-65) to Georgia over the weekend where they were 3.5-point favorites.  Unfortunately, close losses have been fairly common this year for 'Bama, who has five of them by two points or less. Despite that, the fact they have alternated wins and losses over their last six games I believe makes them an excellent bounce back target Tuesday even though they are laying points.  One of those five losses by two points or less came January 13th at South Carolina, a game they still covered as four-point dogs. The Gamecocks have basically been a disaster at the betting window in going 2-12 ATS vs. SEC foes this season. Look for the Tide to get revenge.

South Carolina had not won a road game in conference play until upsetting Georgia last Tuesday, 64-58 as 6.5-pt dogs.  They followed that up w/ a 10-pt loss at home to Texas A&M Saturday.  They shot a measly 29 percent from the field in that game and were short-handed due to both injury and suspension.  That's not going to change here w/ the possible exception of guard Marcus Stroman, who has missed the last four games w/ a throat injury.  HC Frank Martin has been quoted as saying practice has become a chore as he only has eight players to work with and that team managers are actually required to do five-on-five drills.

The first time these teams played saw South Carolina hold on for the win despite not making a single field goal attempt over the final 6:30 of the game.  Having failed to break 60 pts in six of their last nine games, offense has definitely been an issue for the Gamecocks.  They are only 3-6 SU/ATS as underdogs this season and the L3 seasons have seen them go 12-34 straight up when taking the points.  With such a small number, I'm not afraid of the pointspread coming into play here, plus the Tide are only allowing 59.4 PPG here in Tuscaloosa.  8* Alabama

10* Auburn (7:00 ET):  Few are going to want to touch the Tigers here as they just got smoked by #1 Kentucky Saturday in a 110-75 loss.  The good news, however, if you're an Auburn fan is that you won't be playing an opponent that good the rest of the season. I realize that things haven't gone so well for Auburn over the last month w/ just two wins in their L10 games and those came by a combined four points.  However, one was against tonight's opponent LSU, on the road.  These Tigers are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but in a good place after picking up a big home win over Florida Saturday.  Obviously, they'll motivated here by the revenge factor, but that won't be enough to overcome laying points on the road.

I could take some time to go through what happened to Auburn Saturday night, but what's the point?  Kentucky put forth a level of domination that no other team in the country is capable of and certainly won't be repeated here. Literally, it can't get any worse for the Tigers than it did in Lexington.  Bruce Pearl's team has generally been competitive even as the losses have piled up.  This has been the toughest portion the schedule, which explains the record. A team that averages 76.0 points per game at home is certainly a viable bet when taking points, however.  LSU would almost have to be at their best offensively to cover as the road favorite here. Remember that Florida was w/out its two top scorers against them on Saturday.

The first meeting w/ Auburn, as well as a two-point loss to Kentucky, are the only two games this year where LSU had a higher field goal percentage than its opponent and lost.  That game was actually one of Auburn's highest scoring SEC games and also was their first "true" road win of the season. HC Pearl is now 6-3 SU vs. LSU in his coaching career going back to his days at Tennessee.  While that was definitely a bad loss for the Bayou Bengals, I think that the uglier loss to Kentucky will have Auburn as the more motivated team here.  Take the points. 10* Auburn

8* Chicago (8:05 ET): We've begun to see Milwaukee "give some back" lately, including in a 97-86 home loss to Atlanta yday afternoon. It was the team's sixth ATS defeat in the last seven games, dropping them to 34-20-1 ATS for the season, which is still top three in the league but no longer #1 which is where they once were.  Tonight, the Bucks visit division rival Chicago, who ironically has also been experiencing some problems covering the spread since the All-Star Break.  The Bulls are 0 for 2 ATS since the Break, losing outright at Detroit and then only scraping by Phoenix here at home.  While they've struggled ATS at home for years now, I feel Tom Thibodeau's team gets the job done tonight as they've generally handled Milwaukee through the years and have still managed to win five of their last six overall.

Last night was only the second time the Bucks have lost in their L11 games.  The deciding run came in the fourth quarter as the Hawks outscored them 24-9 to break open what had been a fairly tight game throughout.  It had to be frustrating to lose a game in which they held Atlanta to just 40.2 percent shooting from the field.  With the strong overall ATS record, the Bucks are pretty strong in most situations, but just 7-6-1 ATS when playing the second of back to back games. They have cleaned up both on the road & as dogs, but eventually those things begin to "even out."  Right now, without the services of the recently acquired Michael Carter-Williams, I'd say Milwaukee is a go-against team.

Chicago is scoring far more than we're used to seeing from them, especially here at home where they average a whopping 104.1 points per game. They've scored 113 and 112 pts their L2 home games and are actually 6-2 ATS their last eight games vs. teams w/ a winning record.  This is not a ridiculously big number by any means and while my personal power ratings say the line is higher than it should be, that doesn't take into account the fact Milwaukee is playing w/out rest.  Look for the Bulls to take advantage.  8* Chicago

10* Over T'wolves/Rockets (8:05 ET):  I think there's a good chance that Minnesota ends up getting blown out in this game, but I think the odds of a high-scoring game remain even higher.  The Timberwolves are a shaky defensive team at best as they allow 106.2 points per game, a figure which ranks 29th in a 30-team league.  It gets even worse on the road where they allow over 109 PPG.  So after Houston turned in a remarkable defensive effort on  Saturday, one that is highly unlikely to be duplicated, I feel it is the Rockets' ability to score (103 PPG at home) that can best lead them to the pay window tonight. At the same time, Minnesota has scored 105+ in three of its last four games.  Take the Over.

Saturday night vs. Toronto, a game where I was on the Rockets, they held the Raptors to only 76 points on 32.5 percent shooting.  In each of the first three quarters, Toronto was held to 18 pts or less. I cannot see a repeat of that here tonight, even against lowly Minnesota.  Saturday's game stayed Under the total by more than 35 points.  It was the third straight Houston game to stay Under, but the previous two as well as the three before that all saw at least 207 total points scored.  High totals are quite common for the Rockets, who at home are 18-9 Under. But the first two times the played Minnesota this year saw 214 and 226 total pts scored.

The T'wolves barely escaped w/ a win on Friday, beating Phoenix 111-109.  That was a short-handed Suns squad they allowed to score 67 points after halftime, mind you.  It also should be pointed out that in its previous five games before beating Toronto, Houston had allowed 111.8 PPG on 49.1 percent shooting.  So Minnesota figures to "get theirs" in this game as well, despite being short-handed.  Five of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone Over with both sides topping 100 pts every time except one (the lone Under).  The winning side has scored at least 107 points in all six instances w/ Houston averaging over 114 points per game.  10* Over T'wolves/Rockets

10* Georgia Tech (7:00 ET):  I would have been less apt to go against Louisville here if they had failed to rally back from a big first half deficit (at home) against Miami on Saturday.  Had the Cardinals lost, it would have been their third in a row to an unranked opponent.  But despite the win, there are major concerns right now surrounding Rick Pitino's team, not the least of which being the dismissal of senior guard Chris Jones.  Jones, who averages 13.7 points per game, was a big part of Saturday's comeback (scored 17 pts) after being suspended for the Syracuse game last Wednesday. His abscence will really be felt on the defensive end as a big reason the team led the ACC w/ 8.3 steals per game is that Jones averaged 2.0 per game himself, more than any other player in the conference.  Take the points here.

Georgia Tech is off a bad loss at Chapel Hill on Saturday.  North Carolina beat them down by a final score of 89-60, easily covering the 11-point spread.  The Yellow Jackets were coming off just their third ACC win of the season going into Saturday's game, and considering how they'd performed off the previous two, perhaps that wasn't the best spot for them.  The 89 pts allowed, however, were an eye-opener.  Ga Tech is a pretty sound defensive team, particularly here in Atlanta where they allow just 60.8 PPG, which puts them in the same ballpark as L'ville, who allows just 59.2 PPG.  Consider that before Saturday, the Yellow Jackets hadn't dropped an ACC game by more than seven points all season.

While Georgia Tech has had two games to get used to being w/out Chris Bolden, Louisville will be looking to win for a first time w/out Jones. Over the L6 games, the Cardinals offense has averaged just 59.7 PPG, which is certainly not a good sign when you're laying points on the road.   Against Miami on Saturday, they shot just 33.9 percent from the field and trailed 29-19 at halftime.  Something else to keep in mind is that w/out Jones, the team had just two steals in the loss to Syracuse last week, a game where the offense struggled against the zone.  Louisville is just 8-14 ATS when favored this season while Ga Tech is 8-4 ATS as a dog. I'm just not a buyer on Pitino's team right now.  10* Georgia Tech

8* Norfolk State (7:00 ET):  We're heading to the MEAC for this one, a conference where everyone is chasing North Carolina Central, who is a perfect 13-0.  No challenger to their throne is closer than Norfolk State, who is three games back and would be even closer had they not dropped a couple of games (MD-Eastern Shore & Morgan St) last week.  The Spartans bounced back w/ a big 99-81 win over Coppin State Saturday, easily setting a season-high for points scored and doing so on the road.  They shot 62 percent from the field for the game and scored 60 points after halftime. It was a truly dominant performance, typically the kind that cannot be replicated a team's next time out, but here I like their chances against a Delaware State side that is nothing special.

I *believe* that this is the first lined game for Norfolk State all season.  So we don't have a ton of ATS information here.  However, I can assure you an 18-pt road win would have equated to a cover. In addition to shooting the ball well from the floor, the Spartans were 88 percent from the FT line Saturday, which I like for obvious reasons, not the least of which being free throws become important when needing to cover the spread late in games.  They also outrebounded Coppin State 36-24.  The reason for this game being lined is that it's on TV (ESPNU), so expect a more raucous crowd than normal tonight.

Delaware State is off a big come from behind win at Hampton on Saturday where they were able to erase a 37-26 deficit.  This is a pretty hot team right now as they'd topped 90 points in their three previous games before beating Hampton.  Two of those were wins, but I wonder just how much of an abberration that scoring frenzy was considering the Hornets' YTD scoring average is closer to 70 PPG and they'd been held under 55 twice, on the road, in conference play.  Norfolk State's defense is also better than its shown the L3 games as they allow just 63 PPG at home for the season. Look for the home team to pick up a big win in a rare chance to play in front of the national TV cameras.  8* Norfolk State

10* Over Grizzlies/Blazers (9:05 ET):  Both of these teams should be eager to take the court Sunday night in Portland and not just because this is a matchup of two of the top four teams in the loaded Western Conference.  The Grizzlies will become the last team to start their post-All Star Break trek as they've been off for an insane 10 days.  The Blazers got embarrassed in their last game, a 92-76 loss at Utah.  Despite Memphis' defensive reputation and the Blazers' poor offensive showing Friday, this one has the makings of an Over as that's the way the last four matchups have all gone, including the last one which had a higher total. 

Portland was just awful in Utah, shooting a season-worst 36.1 percent from the field and also establishing a new season-low in points.  So there's only one way to go from there, and fortunately they're back home where they average 102 points per game.  They've gotten to that average in each of their last four games at the Moda Center and considering Memphis allowed Oklahoma City to score 105 in their last game (which was on the road), I can see the Blazers getting to that average again here tonight.  This season, the Blazers are 4-1 Over when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points and they are at home.

Memphis will have to deal with a couple of newly acquired Blazers -Aaron Afflalo and Alonzo Gee- but their main concern should be upping a scoring average of 93.4 the last five games.  Portland does have some surprisingly impressive defensive numbers here at home, but in their only prior visit this season, the Grizzlies went for 112 pts on 53.6% shooting.   I also understand that the Under is 11-2 in Memphis' last 13 games (4-0 L4), but the only other time this year they took the court w/ 3+ days rest saw them fly Over the total alongside the Houston Rockets in a 117-111 final.  Tonight's game may not be as high-scoring as that one was, but this total just seems too low. 10* Over Grizzlies/Blazers

10* Dallas (7:35 ET):  Losers of four straight to begin with, this looks like a brutal spot for Charlotte, who is coming off a home loss to Oklahoma City last night.  That loss happened despite the Thunder being w/out Kevin Durant, which cannot be taken as a good sign if you're a Hornets fan, and not just because it knocked you out of playoff position in the weak Eastern Conference.  Oklahoma City has a losing record this year w/ Durant out of the lineup, yet Charlotte fell behind by as many as 12 in their first game since the All-Star Break. Remember they are still without Kemba Walker as well.  Mo Williams is unlikely to replicate last night's strong debut, so I'm laying the points here.

Charlotte's losing streak includes a setback against lowly Philadelphia, not to mention a 28-pt home loss to Detroit right before the Break.  So the chances for success in this step up in class, on the road, seem slim.  After coming out of the gate rusty on Thursday in Oklahoma City, the Mavericks bounced back w/ an impressive 111-100 win over Houston on Friday here at home.  As they showed there, this team is definitely capable of scoring in bunches.  Eight players finished w/ 10 or more points, including the entire starting five, so the fact Chandler Parsons may miss tonight's game isn't as big of a deal as it could be.  Here at home, Dallas averages a whopping 107.4 points per game.

That kind of firepower is just too much for a Charlotte side that comes in averaging only 94.5 PPG for the year.  Plus, Amare Stoudemire is expected to make his Mavericks debut tonight.  Over their last 11 games, the Hornets have been held below 95 points eight times, including under 90 five times.   Playing without rest obviously only makes things harder.  Dallas is fighting for a division title and the right to have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, so letting a game like this slip away would be incredibly damaging.  I just see them as having way too much for a Charlotte team that is 0-13 straight up against the top eight in the Western Conference.  The Hornets have never won in Dallas and lost to them by 27 at home earlier this year.  10* Dallas

10* Oregon (3:00 ET):  I'd like to reiterate again how much respect I have for this Utah team. They're a legit Final Four contender that is now 21-4 SU after proving me wrong by going to Corvallis and knocking off Oregon State, 47-37 as 7.5-point favorites.  It wasn't so much the winning that surprised me there, but rather the covering.  Including neutral site games, the Utes are still just 6-4 SU outside of Salt Lake City.  Today marks the third instance during the Pac 12 schedule that they have had to play consecutive road games.  The first time, they failed in the second leg (at Arizona) while they also dropped a game on a three-game trip as well.  Oregon, 16-2 SU at home and averaging 79.1 PPG, should be able to cover this generous number. Take the points.

Winning, let alone covering, a game when you score just 47 points is a pretty rare achievement.  But Oregon State, previously unbeaten at home, allowed Utah to do just that on Saturday. It helped that the Beavers shot only 33.3 percent for the game. Low-scoring games have been the norm for the Utes on the road as they average just 61.2 PPG while allowing 54.7.  So while their last 14 wins have all been by double digits, the numbers (and sheer probability) suggest they are due for a close game sooner rather than later.  In last year's lone matchup w/ Oregon, which took place in Salt Lake City, the Utes lost outright.   They have lost their last four trips here to Eugene.

Oregon has won five of six w/ the only loss coming at UCLA. They bounced back from that defeat w/ a 73-60 win over Colorado here at the Matthew Knight Center on Wednesday.  The Ducks led that one by double digits almost throughout and are now in third place in the conference, only looking up at Utah and Arizona. For some reason, despite the chance of a 23-win season, they are currently not considered a NCAA Tournament team.  That would change by winning out, which obviously is a long-shot, but the Ducks ability to put the ball in the basket should at least keep them close the whole way here and inside the number. 10* Oregon

10* Houston (8:05 ET):  Both of these teams played on the road yday, but needless to say they experienced very different results.  Toronto picked up a huge win, quite literally, beating Atlanta 105-80 on the road.  Houston lost at Dallas, 111-100, as 2.5-pt dogs. As good as the Raptors have been in the second game of back to backs this season (9-2 ATS), this has to be considered a letdown spot for them following such an impressive performance against the only team ahead of them in the Eastern Conference.   As I said yday (when I played the Under and won), the Raptors' scoring average (108.6 PPG!) on the road HAS to start to come down, sooner or later, right?  Lay the points in this one.

Dating back to before the All-Star Break, the Rockets have dropped three of four, which in the loaded Western Conference means you're in danger of a precipitous fall.  Right now, they are in fourth place, but only one-half game currently separates third place from sixth.  With the decrease in home court advantage and still no Dwight Howard, normally I might be a bit more concerned about a play on Houston here. But the situation dictates it.  I'd also make the case that their their three point shooting is due to turnaround after a rough couple of games.  For what it's worth, Toronto has lost its last seven visits to the Toyota Center.

After suffering a double-digit loss, the Rockets are 8-2 ATS this year. Turning the ball over 21 times last night killed them and one could make the case of rest over rust as it was their first game since the Break while Dallas had played the night before (and lost) at Oklahoma City.  I just don't see any way the Raptors can match last night's intensity or level of performance.  10* Houston

10* Kansas (4:00 ET):  TCU was never as bad as their Big 12 record seemed to indicate (remember they were 13-0 vs. non-conf), but after posting B2B wins, they happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, that being Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday where they'll find an angry bunch of Jayhawks, who are off a last second loss at West Virginia Monday.  KU is unbeaten in Lawrence this season, outscoring teams by over 15 points per game, so by facing one of the weaker teams in the conference, they should roll here again.  The first matchup, played in Ft. Worth obviously, was a three-point game despite poor shooting from the Horned Frogs.  Even if they are to improve from the field here, I don't think TCU has much of a chance.

Kansas' margin for error shrank w/ the loss Monday as their lead over Iowa State for 1st place in the Big 12 is down to one game.  After giving up a layup w/ four seconds remaining vs. the Mountaineers, it appeared as if the Jayhawks would return the favor, only for Perry Ellis to miss.  But I don't think there was any shame in that loss, nor is there anything to worry about here.  Bill Self's team is #1 in RPI having beaten more top 25 teams (seven) than any other in the country.  This is a dangerous squad from behind the arc (40.9%), best in the Big 12, and they are also a perfect 4-0 against the spread off a SU loss this year.  They've lost just five of their past 140 home games (not a misprint!). 

Meanwhile, life in the Big 12 has been tough for TCU.  They've lost 44 of 49 conference games since joining, and this will be the first time EVER they're coming off B2B wins in the new league.  The last time they beat a ranked opponent on the road was 1998 (Hawaii), since losing 29 in a row by an average of more than 18 points per game.  They've benefited from good shooting in the last two games, but we're likely to see a difference story today as Kansas' last three opponents have all been held below 38 percent for the game.   In the face of high spreads, the Jayhawks have gone 8-3 ATS at home, including 4-1 ATS when laying 12.5 or more points.  This should turn into a blowout rather quickly.  10* Kansas

8* Richmond (4:00 ET):  George Washington is in a free fall.  They've lost five of six straight up (0-6 ATS) and are just 2-11 ATS in conference play this season.  That losing streak has them off the NCAA Tourney bubble (not in the good way!) and I see little evidence that the Colonials are likely to turn things around this afternoon in Richmond.  Especially because this is a revenge spot for the host Spiders, who lost by three in double overtime earlier this year. Returning home off B2B road games, this is a big one for Richmond, who is calling for a "Red Out" from their fans and will honor former players at halftime.  They are in better form right now and even with a checkered history when favored, I'm willing to lay this small number.

Truth be told, Richmond was very fortunate to even force overtime in the first matchup. Kendall Anthony was fouled on a desperation three from half-court in the final seconds of regulation w/ the team down 50-47.  Neither side shot the ball well in that game.  Note that GW was playing much better at the time and was actually unbeaten at home until last week. In "true" road games, they are 3-6 SU/2-7 ATS.  Over the L6 games, the Colonials are averaging right around 60 points per game, which simply won't cut it.  Surprisingly, this team has been a dog only four times this season, but those games haven't gone well as they're 1-3 SU/ATS. 

Richmond just split a pair of road games.  After suffering an outright loss at George Mason, they bounced back to defeat St. Bonaventure 71-56 Wednesday.  Five players scored in double figures as the team shot 50 percent overall, including eight three-pointers.  They forced 19 turnovers as well.  Consider that GW's only win in the last six games needed overtime and they have to be in the dumps after blowing an eight-point halftime lead at home against Davidson earlier in the week.  The Colonials' three-point shooting has been a disaster away from home this year.  8* Richmond

10* Texas (2:00 ET):  This is a gigantic game for the Longhorns.  Not that it isn't for visiting Iowa State, who is still trying to catch Kansas for first place in the Big 12 (currently one game back).  But for all its talent, Texas actually has a losing record (6-7 straight up) in conference play and is in dire need of what would be just its second win against a Top 50 RPI team.  I think they get it here.  This matchup is a real contrast of styles with the Longhorns and their defense going against the high-scoring Cyclones.  Last month in Ames, ISU won a very close game, 89-86 but failed to cover as five-point favorites.  Home court should be the difference maker here for Rick Barnes' squad, which is actually 4-0 ATS this season vs. teams that average 77+ PPG.

Prior to Wednesday's win in Stillwater (Oklahoma St), ISU had gone a long time time w/out a road win.  They'd lost four in a row away from Ames, including double digit defeats to Kansas and Oklahoma.  The likelihood of them winning B2B road games seems small to me.  Like many college teams, the big reason for the severe home-road splits is that defense doesn't travel for the Cyclones.  They're allowing 78.1 points per game on the road compared to 64.6 at home.  They allowed even more to UT on Jan 26, thanks to a late furious rally by the Longhorns.  Enjoying a +26 edge in FT attempts was a big help for Fred Hoiberg's team there as well.  By the way, Iowa State has lost six straight times here in Austin by an average of 10.0 PPG.

No team in the country allows a lower shooting percentage on two-point attempts than does Texas at 37.3 percent.  That's quite impressive.  Their length often gives opponents difficulty (13 blocked shots last game!), it's just that you'd like to see a little more consistency in their overall play, particularly on the offensive end.  But despite having a three-game win streak snapped Monday in Oklahoma, the Longhorns showed me something as they led for much of the second half before eventually wilting in overtime.  That's a good Oklahoma team that they held to 36.1 overall shooting.  The 'Horns are top four in the country in rebounding, and hopefully should do a better job at keeping ISU out of the paint compared to the first meeting.  10* Texas

8* Baylor (1:00 ET):  For as good as Baylor's RPI might be, the Bears are only 7-6 SU in conference play and have struggled some of late.  They lost to Oklahoma State (at home) and at Kansas by nearly identical scores, then barely got by the weakest team in the Big 12 (Texas Tech) Tuesday.  So a big win would come in handy "right about now" and fortunately for them I think they have an accommodating opponent in fleeting Kansas State, losers of six of their last seven. The Wildcats did upset Oklahoma last Saturday, but that was in Manhattan. They've dropped five of six Big 12 road games and are just 3-10 SU away from home overall this season.  I look for Baylor's defense and rebounding to lead them to a big victory Saturday afternoon in what is a revenge spot for them.  Lay the points.

Back on January 17th, Baylor actually held a double-digit lead in Manhattan before falling apart late and losing to the Wildcats 63-61 as 1.5-pt dogs.  It is the only loss to an unranked Big 12 team on their resume. There were a number of reasons for the blown lead. One was simply the Bears missing multiple layups.  In the end, they shot just 38.2 percent for the game, compared to 50.0 percent for Kansas State, who was an even better 59 percent in the second half.  Still though, it was a rare loss for Baylor when scoring at least 60 points and at the same time they pulled down 17 offensive rebounds.  Kansas State went on a 17-2 run at one point as they were able to consistently get to the foul line thanks to driving to the hoop. The Wildcats led for less than six minutes total, however, it just so happened to be the six minutes that mattered most. 

Baylor is coming off perhaps its best defensive effort in some time.  They held Texas Tech to just 49 pts on 35.4 percent shooting. At the same time, they only scored 54 pts themselves. But they're 3-0 ATS this year when after scoring 60 pts or less.  This is a team that holds visitors to an average of 57.2 PPG this season and they are also 4th in the nation in rebounding (40.7 per game), which should be a big edge against a Kansas State squad that doesn't have a single player averaging more than 5.2 RPG.  Second-chance points are huge for the Bears (13.9 per game), who rebound an astounding 43% of their missed shots, easily the highest percentage in the entire country.   Kansas State was down 35-15 at the half to TCU earlier this week, not a good sign.  Offensive efficiency numbers are at the opposite ends of the Big 12 spectrum for these two.  8* Baylor

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET):  The Bucks are somewhat lost in the mix in the Eastern Conference.  They clearly shouldn't be grouped with the top five contenders, but at the same time they hold a huge 7.5 game lead over the two teams tied for seventh (Miami, Charlotte).  So we clearly have ourselves a playoff team here and one of the league's best against the spread to boot (34-18-1 ATS).  Already, they have topped their projected season win total (24.5) and by year's end they may triple LY's number of wins (15). This should be an easy one for them as a poor Denver team comes calling. 

The Nuggets did win their final game before the All Star Break, 106-96 as 1.5-pt dogs on the road, but the opponent was the Lakers.  Before that, Denver had lost six in a row and 13 of 14.  They went 3-9-2 ATS in that same stretch, so it's not like they were competitive either.  Defense is an issue with Denver as they allow more than 104 points per game, one of only five teams in the league to do so.  

Both of these teams were busy reshaping their respective rosters at the deadline, which is why the line wasn't posted until this morning (personnel issues).   Regardless if both were at "full strength" or missing some players, it's advantage Bucks.  Additionally, the Nuggets could be w/out Ty Lawson, who missed a team flight and is facing a suspension.   The Bucks are 20-8 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records.  10* Milwaukee

10* Under Raptors/Hawks (7:35 ET):  Though no one wants to believe it, these were the two top teams in the Eastern Conference going into the All-Star Break.  Barring some kind of catastrophic collapse, Atlanta will almost certainly finish the season as the #1 seed as they currently own a 6.5 game advantage in the standings over the Raptors.  Just to put that gap in perspective, it's larger than the difference between 2nd and 6th place in the East.  We saw two teams come out of the gate slow yday (Dallas & OKC) and I anticipate a similar scenario unfolding here as this game should have a playoff-like atmosphere.  Take the Under.

Toronto averages an astounding 108.7 points per game on the road, so that's not good for our cause here. But how long can they keep that up?  Going into the break, they were held to 95 pts or less in four of the last five games. All were at home, but the good news is that they held three opponents to 93 pts or less during that same span.  Here they must deal with an Atlanta team that holds visiting teams to just 95.6 PPG this season.  When these teams met in Toronto last month, the Hawks held the Raptors to just 89 points in a blowout victory.

Tonight's game figures to be closer as well as lower-scoring.  The Hawks scored exactly 88 pts in two of their final three games before the Break.  While there hasn't been a lot of consistency w/ the totals in Hawks games (seems to vary greatly by opponent), we do know that it's not all too often that the O/U line is more than 200 points.  It was 206.5 in the last meeting, which went Under, even though Atlanta shot a preposterous 60 percent for the game.  Even at home, they won't match that tonight.  10* Under Raptors/Hawks

8* Orlando (7:05 ET):  This is a pretty brutal spot for New Orleans, whose season is basically on the brink.  Let's be honest, we know and the Pelicans know, that they won't be making the playoffs. They lost three in a row before the Break, all at home. That had a lot to do with Anthony Davis being out and he's still listed as day to day w/ a shoulder sprain.  The same holds true for forward Ryan Anderson.  While one or both could play tonight, we know that starting PG Jrue Holliday will not as he will miss the next three weeks w/ a leg injury. This team is already 0-3 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts this season, and I don't like them laying points here.

I can't make the case that Orlando is a good team, because they're not, but they are at home and getting points.  It is a little concerning that the Knicks and Lakers account for the Magic's only two victories over the last month, but on the bright side Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS L6.  The one non-cover during that stretch came when they were playing w/out rest at Washington.  Remember that this team made a recent coaching change and that they're 2-2 straight up since.  When playing w/ 3+ days rest this season, the Magic are 2-0 ATS.

My own power rankings indicate that there's a little value here as the Pelicans should only be favored by only four points.  Three of the last four times they have been a road favorite, New Orleans has lost the game outright.  Those games were against Boston, Philadelphia and New York, all teams on the bottom rung of the Eastern Conference ladder, much like Orlando, who was getting nearly this many points against a better Chicago team their last time as a home dog and should have won that game outright (did cover).  8* Orlando

10* Dartmouth (7:00 ET):  The Big Green hasn't fared too well as a favorite this year (just 1-6 ATS), but they are coming off a 61-49 win (-2.5) over Columbia that snapped a five-game SU/ATS losing streak.  They had to play five straight games on the road at one point, a stretch that included a 64-53 loss to tonight's opponent, Princeton.  Tonight, I expect them to exact revenge.  Dartmouth is a team that's gotten to play only eight home games thus far (gone 5-3 SU) and the only time they've lost here over the past month was in overtime.  They actually shot slightly better overall than Princeton in that first matchup, but were 0 for 9 from three-point range. I wouldn't expect a repeat of that tonight.  Lay the small number.

The Big Green were far more proficient from behind the arc on Saturday, connecting on 7 of 12 attempts against Columbia.  They trailed only for a brief time early in the second half (a one-point deficit) before taking control of the game for good.  In holding the Lions to just 49 points, it continued a season-long trend that has seen visiting teams average just 59.7 points per game against them.  I think the defense is what carries them here. They average 7.6 steals per game and just held Columbia to 7 of 23 from three-point range. 

Princeton, meanwhile, has really struggled on the road.  They are just 2-9 SU away from home this season, including 1-7 ATS in lined action.  The Tigers are off an 81-73 home loss to Yale on Saturday.  They lost their lone venture into New Hampshire last season, as 7.5-point favorites, falling 78-69.   For the Tigers, this is a spot that will be somewhat overlooked as it falls in between a pair of matchups with the two first place teams in the Ivy League.  They play at Harvard tomorrow night, which is likely to be on the players' minds.  Two areas of weakness to keep an eye on w/ Princeton is that they allow opponents to shoot 37.5 percent from three-point range and they are also very week on the boards, pulling down just 30.1 rebounds per game (327th in the country).  10* Dartmouth

8* Pacific (11:00 ET):  There aren't many teams left in College Basketball that don't have a conference loss on their resume, but out in the WCC, perennial league power Gonzaga is one of them.  Joining only Kentucky, North Carolina Central (MEAC) and Murray State (Ohio Valley) as the only teams in the country that are unbeaten in league play, the 'Zags are 14-0 SU vs. the WCC, but only 6-7-1 ATS as they are always being asked to lay large spreads to admittedly inferior opponents.  It's hard to constantly "get up" for these games if your Gonzaga and they won't be asked to lay a bigger number on the road all season than they are here as they visit last place Pacific.   With a much bigger game looming at rival St. Mary's this weekend, plus the fact Gonzaga is 0-3 ATS this season when laying 12.5 or more points on the road, I'm taking the home dog in this one. 

I can't make the case Pacific is a good team, or even an average one at that, as the Tigers have dropped 10 of 11 w/ the lone win coming by two points.  They've lost seven in a row and were just destroyed at BYU, 84-59.   That was the finale of a three-game road trip, however, and here at home they tend to be far more competitive.  Four of their five WCC home games have been decided by seven points or less.  This will obviously be the toughest one yet and they did lose to Gonzaga by 31 the first time they played.  But that being said, Gonzaga is unlikely to shoot 60 percent from the field like they did in that first meeting.  This is obviously the most points Pacific has gotten in any game this year.

Then you have the fact Gonzaga has been experiencing some close calls of late.  They've covered only two of their last six games and whether at home or on the road, those spreads were generally in the same range as this one. In three of their four games in February, the Zags have either been tied or trailed at the half.  Saturday, at home, they scored only 56 points against Pepperdine.  They won by only eight points despite the Waves missing all 10 three-point attempts they took.   This is just too many points to lay in a look ahead spot.  8* Pacific

10* Oregon State (11:00 ET):  Quietly, Utah has morphed into one of the top teams in the entire country.  They are a legit Final Four contender (seriously!) and generally have been blowing out opponents with great regularity.  They've won four in a row - all by 15 pts or greater - and in fact their last 13 wins have all been by double digits.  But while they've only lost four times all year, all four have been on the road and two of them here in Pac 12 play (at UCLA and at Arizona) weren't very close.  To me, that makes it look very dangerous that they are laying such a big number tonight in Corvallis to an Oregon State squad that has yet to taste defeat at home all season.  I'm taking the points here, and think an outright upset is a real possibility.

I'd say that Oregon State is probably one of the most improved teams in the entire country this year. What 1st year HC Wayne Tinkle has done here is made even more remarkable when you consider that the Beavers didn't return a single starter from last year's squad and don't have much of a bench.  But still, OSU ranks right behind the Utes in terms of scoring defense (57.5 PPG to 56.4) and is a team Utah has yet to face.  Off B2B road losses, the Beavers are a dangerous team here because they're not getting much respect from the linesmakers.  While they aren't a potent offensive bunch, neither is Utah on the road, and OSU is limiting visitors to just 52.6 points per game here at Gill Coliseum on 34.4 percent shooting. 

As stipulated earlier, Utah isn't nearly as strong on the road as they are in Salt Lake City.  They are just 5-4 on the road/in neutral site games, averaging just 62.8 points per game.   They did struggle defensively - at least for a half - Sunday vs. Cal, allowing the Bears to shoot 54 percent before halftime and thus keep the game close most of the way.  It was the second most points they'd given up in a game all season.   Oregon State is 11-2 ATS at home this season, with most of those games going Under, so in what figures to be another low-scoring affair, taking the points is definitely the way to go.  10* Oregon State

8* San Antonio (10:35 ET):  I admit that it's odd to see a team as highly rated as the Clippers actually GETTING points at home.  But despite wins over the Rockets and Mavs right before the All-Star Break, Lob City has been a big money loser at the betting window this season, going 22-32 ATS.  They will be without Blake Griffin for the foreseeable future, making this matchup with the defending NBA Champs right out of the game a very tough matchup. The Spurs are a team to keep an eye on right now as they're finally healthy and should enjoy a strong second half of the season.  This is a big revenge spot for them after losing to LA by 20 at home the last time they played.  Lay the points.

Overall, San Antonio has won 15 of its last 20 games.  They destroyed Detroit last Wednesday, 104-87, with five players finishing in double figures.  They too have struggled some to cover games, going 2-7-1 ATS, so I admit that laying points w/ them on the road against another Western Conference power seems risky.  But this has more to do with my faith in HC Greg Popovich having his team ready to go and that the Clippers are not at full strength. 

Defensively, give the nod to the Spurs in this one as they rank 3rd overall in the league, allowing just 96.7 points per game for the year.  The Clippers have given up over 110 PPG their last five games and were torched by Oklahoma City for 131 points.  When priced as an underdog, the Clips are just 3-6 SU/ATS.   I feel that at this moment the Spurs are the team poised for the better start to the second half.  8* San Antonio

8* LA Lafayette (8:15 ET):  Both of these squads are pretty much "stuck in the middle" of the Sun Belt pecking order, though lately things have not been going well for Texas State at all.  The Bobcats have lost eight of nine and scored just 41 points at home against Georgia State on Saturday.   That loss also dropped them to 1-6 against the spread as an underdog this season, making this matchup w/ LA Lafayette seem like a solid "buy" on the favorite, who admittedly is having pointspread problems of their own (3-8 ATS L11, 0-3 L3), but is also 6-0 ATS the past three seasons when coming off three consecutive ATS defeats.  Lay the points in this one.

The Ragin Cajuns barely got by last place Troy on Saturday, winning 84-80 as 4.5-point chalk, in overtime. But that was also a road game.  At home this year, this team has had little difficulty scoring as they average a whopping 86.9 points per contest.  Overall, Lafayette ranks in the top 20 in scoring in the entire country.  That would make them a bad matchup for a Texas State team that averages just 58 PPG on the road.  That's almost a thirty point per game scoring difference we're talking about and the home team is only being asked to lay single digits! 

Lafayette already beat Texas State once this year, 72-63, as one-point road favorites.  They actually led by as many as 16 in that contest before the Bobcats came back to make things more interesting than they should have been.  There have been a number of games this year where the Ragin Cajuns have let teams back in after building a big lead, but I'm not overly concerned about that here.  Texas State isn't going to shoot 62 percent from the field like Troy did on Saturday, a game where Lafayette led by eight w/ just 90 seconds remaining.  The Bobcats were just 29.3 percent overall Saturday vs. Georgia State and are below 40 percent shooting for the year.  The favorite needs this game as they pursue a top four seed in the SBC Tournament.   Way too much offensive firepower from the home team, which has topped 80 pts eight times in 2015 while Texas State has actually been held below 45 pts three times during that same span.  8* LA Lafayette

10* Under Mavericks/Thunder (8:05 ET):  In the first game back from a longer All-Star Break than previous years, I think that its just asking too much for two teams to be in sync enough to go Over a total this large.  Admittedly, the only other time these teams played this season, the game did go Over, a 112-107 win by the Mavs (210.5). But it bears mentioning that game was in Dallas where the Mavs score more per game. Quietly, Oklahoma City actually ranks as one of the league's better defensive teams, giving up just 95.7 PPG at home.  They held the Grizzlies to just 89 points in the final game before the Break.  Meanwhile, Dallas' last game  was an 87-82 win over Utah.  

It will be a "new look" Mavs squad taking the floor Thursday night as not only is Amare Stoudemire set to make his debut, but Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler are both set to return from injuries. I remind you that the offense actually regressed with Rondo in the lineup.  He (Rondo) has been historically bad from the free throw line this year.  Also, the Mavs shot just over 40 percent in the final five games before the Break. 

Oklahoma City, with those strong defensive numbers, not surprisingly has been an Under team at home this season.  They are 14-8-2 Under in all home games.  That's due in large part to the fact opponents are shooting just 41.4% here at Chesapeake Energy Arena.  This will actually only be the fourth Thunder game all season where the total is above 210 points, so there is some value here.  Dallas is more accustomed to these high totals, but has basically been a 50/50 proposition when it comes to going Over or Under when the total is 210 or higher.  I look for both teams to struggle out of the gate, at least offensively, after such an extended time off.  10* Under Mavericks/Thunder

full analysis soon

10* Arizona State (9:00 ET):   We'll get our weekly dose of Bill Walton here as his alma mater faces Arizona State in Tempe.  The Sun Devils have alternated wins and losses (or rather losses and wins) over the L6 games and come off a victory at Washington, 78-68 as 2.5-point favorites.  UCLA, at one point left for dead, has won 8 of its last 11 including B2B victories at home over Oregon and Oregon State.  But in handicapping the matchup, the thing that sticks out to me is the home court advantage.  UCLA is just 3-9 SU away from home (2-6 SU/ATS in "true" road games) and Arizona State is 11-3 SU at home and the last time we saw them here, they defeated Arizona. It's a short number here, so I'll lay it. 

UCLA is a team that averages 71.5 points per game this season.  That number drops to 60.9 away from home.  Their last two road games, one win and one loss, were both decided by two points. But considering UCLA is just 3-8 ATS as an underdog and not getting many points here, it's tough to drum up much support for them here.  The win Saturday over Oregon was a revenge spot for the Bruins as was the win over Oregon State last Thursday.  Both wins were also at home, which brings us back to that disadvantage for tonight.  There have been four Pac 12 opponents that UCLA has split two meetings with so far, winning at home and losing on the road.  This is also somewhat of a lookahead as they'll be playing Arizona this weekend.

Arizona State has played only one bad game over the last month and that was at Stanford, ironically a team UCLA has already swept.  Since then, the Sun Devils' only other two losses have been by a combined four points, one of them coming in overtime. Saturday's win over Washington was their first on the road since January 22nd.  But as I've already beaten into the ground, this one is at home.  ASU has revenge from a double digit loss last year suffered in Pauley Pavillion and I think they're catching the Bruins at the perfect time.  10* Arizona State

8* Florida (7:00 ET): I'm not sure if there's been a more "cursed" team in the country this year than Florida, who in my opinion is far better than their 12-13 SU record indicates.   I mean, how many close losses can one team take?  Overall, the Gators have dropped seven of nine, three of those defeats coming by one point.  At this point, their only hope of making the NCAA Tournament is to win the SEC Tournament.  But a strong finish to the regular season would also be beneficial and I think tonight is an opportunity to "snap out of it" and earn a blowout win at the expense of Vanderbilt.  Florida lost the first meeting w/ the Commies (by six points), which at the time snapped a seven-game losing streak for Vandy. I'll call for revenge tonight.

Since "upsetting" Florida on February 3rd, Vanderbilt has won two of three, including 76-68 at Alabama over the weekend.  Their chances of winning B2B road games doesn't seem very high considering they now have just three victories outside of Memorial Gym.  As mentioned before, this is a team that at one point had dropped seven consecutive SEC games.  A rare 2:1 edge in free throw attempts on the road was a big difference as the Commodores won their first SEC away game Saturday at Bama.  They shot the ball better than usual as well, and turned it over only six times. That offset a rebounding disadvantage and don't forget the Tide were w/out their second leading scorer.

I still believe in Billy Donovan's team and would like to see them make a run in March.  The Gators are holding teams under 60 points per game for the season and here at home have a +11.6 scoring differential.   Playing w/ revenge and trying to snap a four-game losing streak will have the team properly motivated this evening.  Incredibly, this team has gone 1-6 SU in games decided by two points or less, so again they are much better than their overall record. No Florida team has lost five in a row since 1998 and I think this one will find a way to score enough points to grab the cover.  8* Florida

8* George Washington (7:00 ET):  GW is one-point away from being on a five-game losing streak and has fared poorly at the betting window, going 2-10 ATS its last 12 games.  So they really could use a win more than usual tonight and thankfully, Davidson comes in tonight somewhat overvalued due to a three-game win streak over teams in the lower half of the A-10.  GW has actually now fallen a game behind them into sixth place, but having the home court edge tonight and basically only needing a SU win is huge for the Colonials' cause and I see them getting back into the win column here.  

GW is off a home loss to Virginia Commonwealth over the weekend.  The game was tied at halftime but the return of Treveon Graham plus VCU's trademark "Havoc Defense" was just too much for the Colonials.  VCU was the more desperate team there, a role the Colonials now find themselves in for tonight.  Keep in mind that Saturday was GW's first home loss all season.  It almost seems as if the linesmakers are "punting" on this team, but as is often the case that's a good time to "buy low" on a team, which is what I'm doing here.  There was a time earlier this year when I played AGAINST them (1st meeting w/ VCU), but that was at a time when you could argue they were drastically OVERVALUED due to winning 10 of 11 games. 

Meanwhile, I'm not sure how much faith I put into Davidson's little three-game win streak.   They did win at LaSalle over the weekend, 77-69, but overall the Wildcats have had a pretty favorable A-10 schedule thus far.  They did beat both Dayton and UMass, but winning consecutive road games may be above their "pay grade."  This will be the third set of B2B road games in conference play for them and in both previous instances they won the first game, only to lose the second.  That pattern should repeat itself here and guard Jack Gibbs remains questionable w/ a knee injury.  8* George Washington

8* Evansville (8:00 ET):  This is a revenge spot for the Purple Aces.  They lost at Drake, as 6.5-point favorites, back on January 30th by a score of 70-65.  The Bulldogs shot the ball exceptionally well (54.5%) in the contest, something we're unaccustomed to seeing as this is a hardly an efficient or prolific offense.  For the season, Drake averages just 58.9 points per game.  On the road is where they really struggle, averaging just 53.4 PPG, and they've lost 13 of 14 (including neutral site games).  Evansville's loss in the first meeting kickstarted a three-game losing streak, but they've since bounced back w/ B2B wins, including at Southern Illinois Saturday, 72-64 as a one-point dog. Similar to Villanova last night, bank on the revenge angle here. 

Drake was blown out Saturday, on the road.  They lost 75-54 as nine-point dogs at Indiana State.  Like Evansville, the Sycamores were a team that Drake had previously beaten at home.  It was a 27-point swing from the first to the second matchup w/ ISU, so right there you can see the difference between the Bulldogs at home and on the road.  It's was a similar story w/ other opponents, Wichita State and Illinois State as well. Against Wichita State, the Bulldogs lost by just eight at home and by 34 on the road. Against Illinois State, they also lost by eight at home, but by 36 on the road. Sense a pattern? 

With Drake allowing its opponents to shoot nearly 52 percent from the field on the road, Evansville figures to have a big offensive night and they come in averaging 76.4 PPG at home on better than 50% shooting to begin with.  Speaking of shooting the ball well, the Purple Aces were at 56.3% vs. SIU Saturday.  Five different players scored in double figures.   This is a game where the favorite should dominate and on top of that they'll have the revenge factor motivating them.  8* Evansville.

10* Notre Dame (7:00 ET):  Since its big win over Duke back on January 28th landed them at 20-2 straight up and firmly in the Top 10, the Fighting Irish have split their last four games.  Even worse is that they've gone 0-4 against the spread as they barely escaped Clemson w/ a win last week, 60-58 as 3.5-point chalk.  But w/ a full week to prepare on top of facing a weak opponent at home, this is a game where they should break that streak.  Wake Forest, who is below .500 and 2-7 in "true" road games, is in a tough spot here after they lost by only one point at #2 Virginia over the weekend.  I can't see them competing that hard for a second time in four days against a superior, and in this case, well-rested opponent. 

Notre Dame has typically been a strong home team under HC Mike Brey and this season has been no different.  They're 15-1 SU in South Bend, the lone loss coming to Virginia, and are outscoring visiting teams by an average of greater than 20 points per game here.  For the record, the Irish are still Top 10 in the country (#10) and let's be honest, they are just too much for a Wake Forest squad that averages just 63 PPG on the road.  In addition to a 1.5:1 assist to turnover ratio, Notre Dame also ranks second in the entire country in field goal percentage at 51.2 percent.  I just don't see how Danny Manning's team can keep up in this one.

In an odd scheduling quirk, Wake Forest's last and next opponent is Virginia.  Saturday saw the Demon Deacons turn the ball over on their final possession, down one, after nearly rallying back from a 13-point second half deficit.  Missing 10 free throws didn't help either.  Notre Dame catching them in the middle of this "Virginia sandwich" is advantageous as Wake Forest could and likely is looking ahead to the rematch.   Remember though that Virginia was w/out its second leading scorer on Saturday, which certainly helped the Demon Deacons stay close.  Six times this season Wake Forest has lost by double digits.  Make it seven here  10* Notre Dame

8* Georgetown (7:00 ET):  Both of these Big East rivals are coming off big victories.  Georgetown destroyed Seton Hall, 86-67 as three-point favorites, while St. John's upset Xavier on the road (as eight-point dogs), 78-70.  Red Storm leading scorer D'Angelo Harrison (19.1 PPG) injured his calf in the win and while he's still expected to play tonight, I have to wonder if he'll be as effective as he usually is.  My guess is he won't be.  He had only five points in the second half Saturday as the team had to hold off a Xavier rally.  The host Hoyas are hungry for a big win here, and have revenge on their minds from a 22-point loss last season.

Coming off B2B losses to Providence and Villanova, G'town needed the kind of performance they delivered last Tuesday at Seton Hall where they blew the Pirates out of the water.  Granted, Seton Hall is experiencing its fair share of issues right now.  But it was still a very impressive performance from the Hoyas, who shot the ball at a 52.5% clip for the game after making 11 of their first 16 shot attempts.   Having had a full week off to prepare here is big.  They have never lost at home to St. John's under HC John Thompson III.

The Hoyas are holding teams to just 62.7 points per game here at home.  Their last three wins have actually all come on the road, by double digit margins.  With only one player on the roster taller than 6'9" on its roster, St. John's is likely to struggle with G'town's height.   8* Georgetown.

10* Butler (9:15 ET):  The Bulldogs will be looking to bounce back from a deflating 68-65 home loss to Villanova on Saturday that put them two games back in the race for the Big East regular season title.  Having now been swept by 'Nova, their chances of winning said championship seem minimal.  But as far as bouncing back tonight goes, Creighton should be fairly accommodating.  Though they've won three of their last five, including 77-70 over Marquette on Saturday (-4.5), the Bluejays are in the midst of a down year at 12-14 SU overall. They were actually able to stay within three (as 9-pt dogs) at Hinkle Fieldhouse last month, but I don't envision the rematch being quite as close as the Bulldogs don't figure to shoot the ball as poorly this go around.

Butler shot just 33.8 percent from the field on January 21st when they beat Creighton 64-61.  While their shooting away from home has been at time questionable, this is a team that shoots the ball at a 44.3% clip overall, so we should see improvement from that last meeting. Meanwhile, Creighton is last in the conference at 41.1 percent from the field.  The Bulldogs followed that win over the Bluejays by winning their next four, three of them by double digits.  Saturday's game vs. Villanova could have gone either way, but what we do know is that Butler is 3-0 SU this season off a conference loss. They are also 5-1 ATS the L6 times they have been a road fave of three points or less.

Meanwhile, Creighton is off just its third Big East win of the season and has failed miserably coming off the previous two.  They were blown out in both instances, by St. John's and Georgetown, losing by a combined 45 points.  They're getting more respect from the linesmakers than they deserve here because of the injury to Butler's Andrew Chrabascz.  Keep in mind that the Marquette team Creighton just beat is now tied w/ them for last place in the conference and Saturday saw the Bluejays shoot a season best 54.9 percent from the field.  I understand that the favorite will miss Chrabascz, but this is such a small number that it's worth laying.  10* Butler

8* Villanova (7:00 ET):  These two Big East teams are trending in very opposite directions of late as Villanova has emerged as a legit national title contender at 23-2 SU for the season after winning their last six games.  They come off a key 68-65 road win over Butler that gave them a two-game lead in the conference. Meanwhile, Seton Hall is doing a great job of flushing its own NCAA Tournament hopes down the drain w/ four straight losses, two of them coming at home.  They were beaten 69-62 at Providence over the weekend.  Normally then, I'd side w/ the desperate underdog in this situation (especially taking this many points), but in this case we have a revenge spot as Seton Hall just so happened to hand 'Nova one of its two losses this season.  Look for revenge to be sweet (and profitable) for the favored Wildcats.

Back on January 3rd, Seton Hall upset Villanova 66-61 as seven-point dogs and that was w/out Isaiah Whitehead.  The game, which was plagued with fouls, went to overtime.  Neither side shot well, but the key was the Pirates making 20 of 26 from the FT line while 'Nova was 20 for 35.  To say the respective seasons of these teams have gone in different directions since that day would be quite the understatement.  Seton Hall, as I mentioned earlier has lost four in a row, plus 8 of their last 11.  Villanova has won 10 of 11 and covered the spread in each of their six straight victories.  Here in Philly, they've won 12 in a row against the Pirates, covering six of the past nine.  Last year, they won by 17. 

Save for the Seton Hall game, as well as a 20-point loss at Georgetown, Villanova has really dominated the rest of the Big East this season, outscoring opponents by 0.15 points per possession. Darrun Hillard led the way w/ a career high 31 pts Saturday vs. Butler, a team that had gone 12-1 SU at home and was 4-2 SU vs. the Top 25.   Keep in mind that the Wildcats have already avenged their other loss this season by blowing out Georgetown, 69-53 as 9.5-point chalk.  Seton Hall is dealing w/ a ton of turmoil right now as one player has left the team and two others - Whitehead and leading scorer Sterling Gibbs - clashed physically during a timeout last Tuesday.  It's a bad situation for the Pirates right now, made worse by the opponent they'll be facing tonight.  8* Villanova

10* Indiana (7:00 ET):  Having lost four of six overall, the Hoosiers are certainly making things interesting when it comes to their NCAA Tournament status.  But looking at those recent results, one thing becomes apparent and that's the home-road splits.  All four losses, including one by only two points earlier this week at Maryland, have come away from Bloomington.  Both wins came here at Assembly Hall.  Therefore, laying a short number looks a lot better here in what is a revenge spot against a Minnesota team that's prime for a letdown after pulling an upset of Minnesota on Thursday.  Lay the points.

Let's stick w/ the theme of home vs. road here.  IU is 14-1 SU in home games this year, outscoring those opponents by 15.8 points per game. In all other contests (road/neutral) they are just 3-7 SU and see their scoring average drop by nearly 10 full PPG.  The majority of their home games in Big 10 play have been relatively close, but in the non-covers they were obviously laying more points than they are here.  As a home favorite of three points or less, the Hoosiers are 17-6 ATS L23, including a perfect 2-0 this year. As for Minnesota on the road, I was pretty surprised to see them go to Iowa City and emerge victorious given that they'd won just one "true" road game previously. Also before that, the Gophers had not won or covered a single time this season as an underdog (0-5 SU/ATS previously).  They average just 63.3 PPG away from home.

The game Wednesday at Maryland certainly could have gone other way, but unfortunately Indiana shot just 37.3% from the field.  With 18 lead changes and seven ties, that was probably the difference maker right there.  As outlined above though, those same shooting woes should not exist tonight at home.  Minnesota still has a losing record in Big 10 play (5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS) and the win Thursday could have been its most impressive of the entire season.  That puts them in prime letdown mode tonight against an opponent that has double revenge from the previous two season.  The advantages lie w/ the home team. 10* Indiana

10* Quinnipiac (4:00 ET):  I just played Quinnipiac Friday.  While the Bobcats fell short of covering the spread there (were laying five), they still did win the game, beating Fairfield on the road 60-59.  While I thought I made a pretty clear case that Fairfield is not a very good team, perhaps in retrospect it was a bad idea to lay points with Quinnipiac on the road. But for today, they find themselves in the opposite role, that of home dog.  They'll be hosting the top team in the MAAC, that being Iona, who is playing its third consecutive road game and second in three nights.  The last one (three-point win at Manhattan) was a close call and I like this situation for the home team, who did cover this season's first matchup. Take the points.

This is actually Iona's fourth game in seven days.  The Gaels had to play a makeup game at Fairfield earlier in the week, which is what makes this spot so tricky for them.  It's their third road game in six days, a tall order for any team.  To be honest, Iona is in a pretty comfortable spot right now in the conference, having already swept second place Rider.  Their two toughest remaining games (Manhattan, Monmouth) are at home.  So what I'm saying is that a loss really wouldn't hurt them too much here as they'd still have a game in hand w/ four to play.  Chances are they're going to be the regular season MAAC champs no matter what.  I just see the rough schedule catching up to them here.

Friday at Manhattan, the Gaels shot 52.2% for the game and made 11 of 18 three-pointers.  Three-point shooting definitely was the difference in that one as the Jaspers went only 5 for 20 from behind the arc.  Quinnipiac will have to bring one of its trademark strong defensive efforts in this one.  Given that they are holding visitors to just 37.1% shooting and 61.8 points per game this season, I'm not overly concerned.  Iona shot much better than did Quinnipiac in the first matchup of the season, but w/ the change in venue I anticipate a different story unfolding here.  10* Quinnipiac

8* Wisconsin (1:00 ET):  At 22-2 SU, it's difficult to say that Wisconsin is playing better now that than they have at any other point in the season.  But the Badgers certainly are rolling in Big 10 play, winning seven straight w/ six of those coming by double digits.  They're off a 10-point win at Nebraska earlier this week, and if all goes according to plan Sunday afternoon in Madison, then they could move up even higher in the rankings as Virginia, Duke and Gonzaga all struggled in victories this week.   As you'd expect, the Badgers are laying double digits here at home, but given that they're outscoring teams by over 20 points per game at the Kohl Center, covering such a spread shouldn't be much of a problem.  Lay the points.

Illinois is on a nice little run themselves as they've won four straight, including an outright victory at Michigan State last Saturday.  They followed that up by beating Michigan in overtime Wednesday as John Groce's team looks to get off the bubble and solidify its NCAA Tournament status.  The problem here though is they are in Madison where they lost by 25 last year.  Overall, they are 0-4 SU/ATS vs. the Badgers the L2 years.  Each of their last four visits here have resulted in double digit losses and with Wisconsin currently in peak form (6-0 SU in Big 10 home games w/ avg MOV of 16.4 PPG), there's no real reason to expect anything different today. 

Led by Player of the Year candidate Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin is just a really good team.  They are a surprising third in offensive efficiency nationally (121.1).  Per 100 possessions, the Badgers are averaging 125.9 points (best in the nation) while outscoring their opponents by 28.7 points (3rd best in the country).   They also own the nation's fourth best defensive rebounding percentage (77%), resulting in opponents averaging just 7.4 second chance points per game, which is third fewest among major conference teams.  They also don't turn the ball over.  Their 12% TO rate is best in the nation and opponents average just 6.4 PPG off TO's, which is two full points per game less than any other team in the country allows.  Quite simply, this is one of the best teams in the country. 8* Wisconsin

10* Portland (10:00 ET):  We've got two West Coast Conference teams trending in opposite directions here.   Loyola Marymount is coming off B2B blowout losses to BYU and Gonzaga, the latter of whom jumped out to a 20-0 lead Thursday and never looked back.  Now the Lions have to play a second road game in three nights against a Portland squad that has won three straight (covered four straight), all by double digits.  Two of those wins came on the road, which has to be impressive if you're a Pilots fan.  What wasn't impressive though was losing outright at LMU earlier this year, 80-68 as four-point chalk.  So that makes this a revenge spot and I expect the home team to take care of business. Lay the points.

Portland played at home Thursday night and blew out Pepperdine 69-52 as five-point favorites.  They shot 51% for the game, which is better than usual, but what's interesting is they weren't as sharp from behind the three-point line (went only 4 for 16).  For the year, they are 38.6% from beyond the arc at home.  They did not shoot the ball well at all January 15th vs. Loyola Marymount, making less than 40 percent of their shots overall, including 8 for 27 from three-point range. They also only attempted 13 free throws, half the number the Lions did.  The +12 edge in made FT's for LMU ended up being the difference in the game.

Loyola Marymount has lost five of its last seven on the road.   The two wins came against the other teams at the bottom of the WCC, San Francisco and Pacific.  I already went over just how ugly things got vs. Gonzaga right off the bat (eventually lost by 29) and the potential for a similar result tonight is there as the Lions average only 59.6 points per game away from home.  Look for this one to get ugly in a hurry.  10* Portland

10* Belmont (7:00 ET):   This would be a classic bounce back spot for Belmont, who returns home after an 0-3 road trip that saw the L2 games both decided by just two points.  The Bruins have fallen one-half game behind Eastern Kentucky in the OVC East Division. Those two will meet on this floor next Thursday, but up first is a spot that Belmont absolutely needs to take care of, that being a home date w/ Morehead State, who like the Bruins are 7-5 SU in conference play.  But the difference is that the Eagles still sport a sub-.500 record overall. They handed Belmont one of those two recent two-point defeats, so the revenge angle is present in this one and I'll note that the Bruins are 6-2 SU the last eight times they've looked to avenge a road loss. 

After beating Belmont last Saturday, Morehead State would go on to lose at Eastern Kentucky (a darkhorse team worth keeping an eye on) by a score of 69-57 (as 6.5-point dogs) Wednesday.  That result did Belmont no favors as coupled w/ their own 72-70 loss at Jacksonville State (were 7.5-pt favorites!), it put the Bruins in second place in their own division.  Somewhat surprisingly, Morehead State swept a three-game conference road swing earlier this year, but at EKU they couldn't play much defense as they allowed the Eagles to shoot 51.2 percent from the field as well as 23 of 27 (85.2%) from the FT line.

Belmont has to be ecstatic to be back home, where they've gone 9-2 straight up this season.  They've won five in  row here, the last two coming by double digits.  But then came the three-game road trip.  Losing at Eastern Kentucky was certainly not something that seemed inconceivable, but following it up w/ B2B two-point losses was disappointing.  Particularly the last one, as Jacksonville State is not a very good team at all.  Somehow, the Bruins lost despite shooting 54.5% from the field.  They were a preposterous 25 of 38 on two-point field goals, but did not shoot well from behind the three-point arc nor did they get to the free throw line very often.  Back at home, look for that to change.  10* Belmont

8* Michigan State (12:00 ET):   I had the Spartans in their last game, which ended up turning into an easy win/cover at Northwestern, 68-44 as seven-point favorites.  Today, they return to East Lansing and step up in class to take on surging Ohio State.  I've seen the Buckeyes slotted as a potential 7-seed for the NCAA Tournament, which I think would be far too low as they've won five of their last six, with the lone loss coming by two points at Purdue.  However, they've also played a shockingly low level of road games so far, just seven "true" ones, and gone 3-4 straight up. This game means more to Sparty, so I'll lay the short number. 

Michigan State has zero wins against the top 25 so far, which is uncharacteristic of a Tom Izzo coached team.  But still, they are 11-4 SU at the Breslin Center their L15 vs. ranked teams, the one this year coming to Maryland in double OT.  The last two times the Buckeyes have come in here ranked, they have lost.  Sparty did lose their previous home game, 59-54 as 9.5-point chalk to Illinois, but I look for a bounce back here as they remain 10-3 SU at home for the year while holding the opposition to just 59.2 points per game.  Speaking of bounce back, they did just that Tuesday in Evanston, where they jumped out to a monster 38-14 lead at halftime.  Defensively, they held the Wildcats to 35.7% shooting for the game.

As much respect as I have for Ohio State, I think that they are entirely too dependent on D'Angelo Russell, who over the last 7 games has consistently been above his season average of 19.4 points per game.  When Russell doesn't get help though, things typically do not go well for the Buckeyes.  They've lost three of the four games where he failed to score at least 14 points.  Surprisingly, only one of those games has come on the road.  However, one thing I've noticed is that as a team, OSU tends to shoot much worse away from Columbus, down to 41.4%, which is well under their overall 50.1% season average.  Look for MSU to put the clamps down defensively in this one.  8* Michigan State 

10* Quinnipiac (8:00 ET):   Fairfield is not a good team at all, which should be apparent considering they come into tonight's game on a seven-game losing streak.  They had a couple of close calls in there, but the Stags have lost their last two by double digits, including a make-up w/ Iona (72-57) at home Tuesday night.  But don't tell Quinnipiac how bad Fairfield is, because they lost to them, at home, back on December 4th in overtime.  So, we have a revenge spot for a team that's arguably now in its finest form of the season.  The Bobcats have won two straight and five of seven after drubbing Niagara on Sunday, 91-69 as 12.5-point chalk.  That too was a revenge spot as they had recently lost to the Purple Eagles in double overtime.  Now 7-3 SU L10 when seeking revenge for a home loss, Quinnipiac should roll in this one. 

I'm not surprised very often, but I was when I found that Quinnipiac actually leads the nation in rebounds per game at 45.2.  That gives them a big edge over a Fairfield team that is near the other end of the spectrum at 278th in RPG.  Given that the Stags don't shoot the ball particularly well (they've been below 39% in seven of their last eight games) that means big trouble here.  The Stags don't even average 60 points per game at home and on Tuesday never led while falling behind by as many as 26.   Meanwhile, Quinnipiac never trailed in its last game where it shot 54.4 percent from the field (on 68 attempts).  They were 14 for 24 from three-point range.

In the first meeting, neither team shot the ball well at all, Quinnipiac in particular.  The Bobcats finished the game at just 30 percent and w/ 52 points.  Remember that was an overtime game.  But that's the kind of sloppy performance by the opponent that Fairfield needs to win a game and counting on that happening again tonight seems foolish.  Since that game, which again took place on December 4th, the Stags have won just three times in 16 games.  Seven of those losses have come by seven points or more.  So, I expect the Bobcats to succeed in another revenge spot, laying a short number. 10* Quinnipiac

8* Cleveland State (8:00 ET):  Cleveland State is tied w/ two other teams atop the Horizon League standings, Valparaiso and Green Bay, who will be playing each other tonight.  So to "keep pace" w/ the winner of that game, Gary Waters' Vikings must win here in Detroit against an opponent they've beaten three straight times.  But while the first meeting this season was decided by only four points, I expect CSU to be even better this time around as there is no denying that the Vikings are in peak form right now, having won three straight and 9 of their last 11.  Each time they've won three straight, they've lost the next time out, but I look for them to break that pattern here tonight and I'll lay the points.

Cleveland State's only two losses over its L11 games have come by a combined five points.  This is a team that also went 3-0 ATS against Louisville, Virginia and VCU during the non-conference portion of the schedule.  They're not a team you want to face this time of year, considering the slow pace they play at (just 61.8 possessions per game) and the fact they force a steal on 12.3 percent of opponents' possessions, which is 18th best in the entire country.  Had Charlie Lee not been suspended for the first six games of the season, the Vikings probably would not have lost to the likes of Savannah State  and Iona.  They are much better than their 15-10 SU record would seem to indicate. 

Additionally, CSU has gone 8-3 ATS in road games this season.  They did lose their last one, but that was to a better team (Oakland) then who they're facing here.  Detroit has lost three in a row and five of six, the lone win coming against last place Youngstown State, and just feel to UIC 83-73 as 9.5-point home favorites.  In the first matchup between these teams this season, Cleveland State won by only four (laying seven), needing a miracle run late despite poor shooting from the Titans.  The Vikings would lose their next game, but have since won three straight by double digits, including 88-72 over Wright State on Saturday where they shot a ridiculous 61% from the field.  8* Cleveland State

10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET):  This is a huge game in the Horizon League w/ the winner assuring themselves of no worse than a first place tie atop the conference.  Three teams are currently tied for first place, these two and Cleveland State, who plays at Detroit this evening. So it's conceivable that the winner here could be alone in first by night's end.   These teams just met on January 23rd and it was Green Bay winning 51-50 over Valparaiso, but I had the underdog +5.5 and will now back them as the favorite, playing w/ revenge, in the rematch.   The Crusaders led that first matchup for the entire first half and never trailed by more than four points.  At home, I expect them to be even better. 

That loss to Green Bay is the only time all season where Valpo didn't win when leading at half.  It's also their only defeat in the last 10 games. The way I see it, if the Crusaders don't shoot a horrific 5 for 27 in the 2nd half, then they would have won January 23rd. I view that shooting performance as a total anomaly as for the season the team is above 47 percent, including 37% from three-point range. Had they even shot 30 percent in the 2H vs. Green Bay, they would have won.  This is a team that's won 11 of 12 home games this season (only loss to New Mexico) and is 22-4 SU overall.  I have them, not Green Bay, as the team to beat in this conference. 

As for Green Bay, they are coming off a tight win against a bad Youngstown State team.  That's a Youngstown State team that's lost 11 of its 12 league games. From a scheduling standpoint, I give a big edge here to the home team.  Green Bay last played Wednesday and this is their second road game in three nights.  Valpo has been off since Sunday and the home team has won the last four times these teams have played.  I realize that we should probably expect another close game here, but Valpo is better rested and has the motivation of revenge on its mind for letting one slip away that they should have won.  They're in better current form than the Phoenix right now.  10* Valparaiso

10* Chicago (8:05 ET):  The winner of this game will go into the All-Star Break as the third place team in the Eastern Conference.  Coming into the year, one could have argued that these two teams were the co-favorites to win the East.  But with surprisingly strong showings from both Atlanta and Toronto, the best either is likely to finish at the end of the year is second.  Cleveland, who has now won 14 of its last 15 since LeBron James returned from his injury, has beaten Chicago twice so far, once on the road and once at home.  But they also had to play last night (while the Bulls had off) giving the home team a pretty nice situational advantage in this one.  I like the Bulls here. 

Each side has a major question mark on the injury front tonight.  For Cleveland, Kevin Love suffered a scratched eye in last night's 113-93 win over Miami (that I was on).   Chicago could be w/out Jimmy Butler, problematic in the sense that he would be the one primarily in charge of guarding James, but the team still did fine w/out him in the second half Tuesday when they beat Sacramento 104-86, their third consecutive victory.  My power rankings have these teams pretty close to even, so Chicago should be a slight favorite tonight.  The rest and the double revenge angle are big for them.

I was on Cleveland last night, but also went against them the last time they played on the road, which was Friday in Indiana.  I mentioned there that the bulk of the damage the Cavs have done during this win streak of theirs has come at home.  Tonight will be only their fourth road game since January 19th and the previous three were against Detroit, Minnesota and Indiana, all of whom are currently below .500.  LeBron and company are actually just a .500 team on the road for the season while being slightly outscored as well.   They allow 101.1 points per game away from home.  The Bulls are 3-1 SU w/out Butler in the lineup this season.  Good value on the home team in this one.  10* Chicago

10* Florida (7:00 ET):  The story of this year's Florida Gators squad has essentially "already been written" and the main theme throughout has been "bad luck."  Numerous close losses, the most recent of which came Saturday night vs. Kentucky, have ensured that it will take nothing short of a miracle run through the SEC Tournament for this perennial Elite Eight group to even make the Big Dance.  Billy Donovan's team has five losses by four points or less and eight by seven or less, which is what probably made them so attractive as the home dog Saturday night, but here I'm still willing to lay points as they host an Ole Miss team that I feel is a tad bit overrated coming in on a five-game win streak. 

One of Mississippi's wins during the current streak came at the expense of Florida.  Not surprisingly, it was close.  In fact, the game was decided by one point in Oxford as the Rebels' Jarvis Summers put his team ahead twice in the final 30 seconds, including the GW free throws w/ 9.8 seconds to go.  In true fashion, Florida found a way to lose despite shooting 12 of 20 on three-pointers.  The last three matchups between these teams have all been decided by four points or less, so again, it might seem a little bit curious to want to lay points in this situation w/ what has been to this point an unlucky team.  But I just feel that the Gators are due for a big win, sooner rather than later.

Ole Miss comes in at 7-1 ATS on the road after beating Auburn 86-79 on Saturday. Extraordinarily hot shooting for the game (57.8% from the field!), including 55 second half points, was the difference there for the Rebels as they trailed by one going into halftime.  Ole Miss also benefited from attempting 38 free throws in the game.  They won't be able to rely on that, night in, night out.  The Rebels have essentially experienced the opposite fortune of Florida, at least lately, with three of their last five wins coming by seven points or less.  Because of the disappointing season, we are able to catch the Gators in a favorable price range here.  Look for them to hurt Ole Miss' own NCAA Tournament hopes tonight.  10* Florida

10* Connecticut (7:00 ET):  Tulsa entered Saturday as one of the last remaining teams in the entire country to not have a conference loss on its resume, but the AAC leaders had their first hung on them by SMU, 67-58, and telling about the Golden Hurricane's current status in the market is that they were actually slight dogs at home.  The loss snapped a 12-game overall win streak, one that included plenty of good fortune, as half of the victories were by seven points or fewer.  Tonight they travel to Storrs to face the defending National Champs, who at 13-9 SU are still trying to turn things around.  UConn did snap a seven-game ATS slide w/ a 62-53 win (as five-point chalk) at Tulane on Saturday and I like them here laying a short number at home.

Considering how long its been, it will be interesting to see how Tulsa performs off a loss here.  Despite an 8-3 record on the road or in neutral site games, they've outscored their opponents by just 2.4 points per game in such situations, averaging only 62.8 PPG themselves.  Prior to running into SMU on Saturday, the Golden Hurricane had played a fairly easy conference schedule, avoiding almost all of the top teams except Temple.  They shot just 28.3% and scored 57 points against the Mustangs and that was at home!  SMU's length gave them all sorts of problems and I belive UConn can create similar matchup advantages. 

UConn has won B2B games straight up, over East Carolina and Tulane, and this is a revenge spot for them after losing to Tulsa earlier this year by eight on the road.  In that first matchup, the Huskies shot the ball poorly (just 34 percent in the 1H) and fell into a 16-point hole. I do not expect a repeat of that here.  UConn was actually a one-point favorite in Tulsa, so again we see where the Golden Hurricane stand w/ the linesmakers, plus I think that means there's a little value on the Huskies here laying a small number at home.  Look for defense to be the difference in this one as the Huskies have allowed just 52.5 PPG in their last two victories and just 56.5 PPG here at home for the season. 10* Connecticut

10* Dallas (8:35 ET):  This is a shockingly low pointspread for the Mavs at home.  Granted, they are probably going to be w/out three starters for this one (Rondo, Chandler, Ellis), but even so, I don't view Utah as a real challenge.   Using a variety of lineups, Dallas has beaten the Jazz seven straight times, most recently 105-82 in Salt Lake City back in November.  Rondo wasn't even on the team at that point and it was Dirk Nowitzki leading the way there w/ a team-high 27 points.  Even without possibly 60 percent of their starting lineup, the Mavs will be highly motivated here as they are coming off perhaps their worst performance of the season, a 115-98 home loss to the Clippers.  Utah is off B2B wins, but that's a good spot to catch them in, as they haven't won three in a row all season.

The Jazz have lost 22 of their last 25 trips to Dallas and have only nine road wins all year as they average just 94.5 points per game away from home.   They are coming off a surprising win at New Orleans, though it should be pointed out the Pelicans played that game w/out Anthony Davis.  I realize that a case could be made that Utah can take advantage here of a similarly depleted team, but the difference is that the Mavs are deep enough to sustain personnel losses while the Pelicans are nothing w/out Davis.  I should also point out that Utah actually trailed New Orleans by 14 points in the third quarter Monday night.  The Pelicans were also missing Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday, so that's a loss of over 55 points per game. 

Even without some key pieces, it's difficult to imagine Dallas being any worse than they were Monday night when they shot just 40.7 percent from the field, their worst shooting percentage in the L18 games.  This is a team that averages 108.1 PPG at home on 47.7% shooting, so expect a much better effort on the offensive end here tonight.   In the end, Dallas is still a better team than Utah even without some key cogs and the the linesmakers have overreacted  to the potential absences , in my mind.  10* Dallas

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET):   Big number, but a big revenge spot for the Cavs, who lost to the Heat on Christmas Day.  Incredibly, Miami has now beaten Cleveland 11 straight times although Xmas marked the first time that LeBron James was on the losing end of one of those games.  Obviously, Cleveland is playing MUCH better now than they were over the Holidays as they come into Wednesday having won 13 of their last 14 games, including 120-105 over the Lakers Sunday afternoon.   Miami, meanwhile, as this pointspread indicates is just not a very good team.   They did snap a three-game losing skid w/ a win over New York on Monday, but have largely been unable to string together any win streaks for the majority of the season. Lay the points here in what should end up being a blowout.

When these teams met on Christmas Day, the Cavs were actually seven games above .500 and on a three-game win streak. But there can be no denying that they're a better team today.  A series of moves that brought in Timofy Mozgov, JR Smith and Iman Shumpert has solidified the depth and more clearly defined roles.  LeBron has averaged 28.1 points per game since returning from injury and the team is 22-5 SU when he has 7+ assists.  James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are coming off arguably their strongest collective performance of the season Sunday where they combined for 82 points on better than 60 percent shooting.  Each scored at least 20 and contributed either double digit rebounds or assists.   Here at home, Cleveland has been really dominating teams, outscoring eight of their last nine visitors by double digits. 

Miami is a team that cannot keep pace w/ the Cavaliers offensively.  The Heat rank 28th in the league in points per game (92.8), not to mention last in rebounding and second to last in assists.  Their only saving grace is the fact they are second in points allowed (96.3), but unless they catch Cleveland on a cold-shooting night, this is going to be a rough matchup for them.  At their best, the Cavs are one of the most offensively efficient teams in the league and have topped 120 points more than any other club this season.  8* Cleveland

8* NC State (8:00 ET):  This is a bit of a letdown spot for #2 Virginia, who is coming off games against Duke, North Carolina and Louisville.  Now, they're caught laying points on the road at a North Carolina State team, who not only beat Duke here in Raleigh, but also hung within two points of North Carolina as well.  Four of the Wolfpack's previous five games have been decided by five points or less, curiously they're 0-4-1 ATS in those games, but this will obviously be the biggest number they've gotten during that span. Earlier this year, they lost by only 10 in Charlottesville.  It should be closer this time. Take the points. 

It was an ugly game to put it mildly when Virginia beat Louisville at home over the weekend.  The Cavaliers shot just 33.3 percent from the field, which is the fifth worst shooting percentage by any team in a win over a top 10 opponent in the previous five seasons. Their defense is absolutely incredible, mind you, but they'll need more than that when laying points on the road.  Also, one of their best defensive players and second-leading scorer (Justin Anderson) is out for 4-6 weeks w/ a broken finger.  The Cavaliers have had some close calls on the road this year, most notably a three-point win over Virginia Tech, and I just don't trust them to score enough to cover the spread when its this large.  They've now scored 57 pts or fewer in three of their last five games.

The two UVA players who figure to get the majority of Anderson's minutes are Evan Nolte and Marial Shayok, neither of whom has scored more than nine points in a game this season.  Situationally, the Cavaliers do appear to be set for a letdown w/ their next six opponents all unranked and .500 or worse in ACC play.  But, as mentioned before, NC State deserves to be taken seriously as they've won four of seven against Top 10 opponents here at home and also took Notre Dame to overtime on January 25th.   I love the situation for them as the Wolfpack have been off for over a week, giving them ample time to prepare while UVA had to play the difficult game vs. Louisville.  The first time these teams played, the Wolfpack actually had the lead late in the 2H and again that was in Charlottesville.  8* NC State

8* Texas (8:00 ET):   The Longhorns picked up a much needed win Saturday at Kansas State, beating the Wildcats 61-57 as 1.5-point favorites, snapping a four-game losing streak.  Rick Barnes' team has some ugly losses on its resume this year, but they also have several close ones, so they remain a tough team to get a beat on.   What I do know though is that they have already clobbered TCU on the road, 66-48 (-2.5) back on January 19th, and that the bottom has dropped out for the Horned Frogs here in Big 12 play.   TCU has lost six in a row and nine of 10 in conference play and the slide should continue tonight in Austin.  Lay the points.

Some of TCU's Big 12 losses have been close, but certainly not the last three as they've been beaten by an average of over 16 points per game.  Every contest was decided by double digits, including Saturday's 68-56 loss to Oklahoma, which was at home.  Incredibly, the Horned Frogs missed their first 13 shot attempts in the game, which obviously played a large role in them finishing only 31.5 percent for the game.  Ironically, their first "made" basket actually came on a goaltending call on the Sooners, who finished w/ 13 blocked shots.  Texas has similar length that should create matchup problems for TCU.

The Longhorns dropping out of the rankings this week spares TCU from playing a seventh consecutive game against a Top 25 team, but still, you get the point on just how deep the Big 12 is this year.  Make no mistake about it, that was an impressive win Texas had Saturday as few teams go into Manhattan and win. Considering they shot 54.1% from the field and K-State just 31.9%, it's a wonder that the game was that close.  Three-point shooting is what kept the Wildcats in that one, but that's something not really in TCU's arsenal as they are a woeful 29.3 percent from behind the arc on the road.  The Horned Frogs are also just 3-7 ATS in conference play, so look for the home team to roll in this one.  8* Texas

8* Washington (7:35 ET):  These are two of the five teams in the Eastern Conference that I consider "locks" for the playoffs.  It is the final game before the All-Star Break for both the Wizards and Raptors, who each come into this game off B2B wins.  After a nine-game ATS losing streak, Washington has turned things around with a pair of blowouts over Brooklyn and Orlando at home.  This is a step up and while the Raptors have beaten them twice this season, I like the points.  The key will be Washington continuing its defensive prowess as Toronto averages 105.8 points per game.  But in three of their last four, the Raptors have been held to 93 pts or less, including 87 in their last game. 

I was on the Wizards Monday as they clobbered a bad Orlando team, 96-80.  Including the previous game vs. Brooklyn, Washington has held its last two opponents to 36.9 percent shooting.  They are now 17-0 SU when holding opponents to 91 pts or less, which is a number that will produce a good record for most teams.  In the Wizards' case, for the season, they rank 8th in the NBA in points allowed at 97.4 per game.  Only one of their previous five opponents has topped 94 points.  Interestingly, they are now 8-2 SU w/out Bradley Beal, who is expected to miss tonight's game w/ the same toe injury that kept him out Monday.  This is a team that rarely gets blown out as the last time they lost by double digits was all the way back on January 16th. 

Toronto's last two wins are far more impressive than Washington's as they beat the Clippers and Spurs, both here at home.  The Spurs' worst shooting night of the season was a big help Sunday while against the Clippers, the Raptors had to rally back from a 20-point deficit.  Laying points, this team has not been particularly good, going just 18-19 ATS for the year and that includes 3-6 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 6 points.  In the end, I just view this as a pretty even matchup where taking points would be the way to go, no matter which team is the underdog.  8* Washington

8* VCU (7:00 ET):  Virginia Commonwealth's once secure lead in the Atlantic 10 is now gone, thanks to two losses in the last three games, including one by two at St. Bonaventure over the weekend.  Clearly, the Rams are going to miss PG Briante Weber, who was the nation's leader in steal percentage each of his four seasons here (including this one). Also, the team is now w/out leading scorer and rebounder Treveon Graham, who reaggravated an ankle injury last Weds vs. George Mason.  But back at home, Shaka Smart's team should have enough to take care of business against LaSalle, who has won just one of its five A-10 road games. Lay the points.

VCU is 9-2 SU at home this season, outscoring teams by 12.1 points per game.  They haven't been great at the betting window, but that's because they were largely being asked to lay big numbers.  Even without two of its best players, the Rams can still rely on their trademark "Havoc" defense, which forces 17.1 turnovers per game at home.    LaSalle is not a great offensive team to begin with; they average 62.7 points per game  In five of their last seven games, the Explorers have been held to 60 points or less.

On the road, things have been even worse for LaSalle.  They drop down to 60.6 PPG.  They scored just 59 Sunday at UMass, shooting just 36.4 percent, and UMass is not noted for its defensive prowess (267th nationally in points allowed).   I say it's time to "buy low" on VCU as they need this game to stay in front of the "other" Rams, that being Rhode Island.   8* VCU

10* Utah State (9:00 ET):  The Aggies are stuck in the middle of the Mountain West standings, but are by no means out of contention.  They enter the day just two games back of co-leaders Wyoming and San Diego State, which makes not only tonight's game vs. Nevada, but also next Wednesday's at San Jose State (off this weekend) so important.  These next two opponents are the bottom two teams in the league, so they have a great shot at gaining a game on either Wyoming or SDSU, who play one another tomorrow night.  Utah State is off a very impressive 63-60 win at New Mexico and I don't fear the letdown here as Nevada is not a real threat. 

Winning at the famed "Pit" in Albuquerque is no small feat, so give Stew Morrill's team some credit as they never trailed after halftime.  That was only New Mexico's third home loss of the season. With Morrill announcing that he will retire at the end of the season, I expect an inspired effort the rest of the way from his team, particularly when here in Logan.   The Aggies are allowing an average of just 59.9 points per game at home this season and have typically enjoyed a tremendous home court edge during Morrill's long tenure (262-32 SU!). 

Nevada is not a good team.  They snapped a seven-game losing streak w/ a three-point win at last place San Jose State Saturday, but did not cover as 9.5-point dogs.  Right there, that line should indicate just how bad San Jose State is.  Utah State has already trashed Nevada once this year, 70-54, and that was in Reno.  Surprisingly, they were two-point dogs for that first matchup, but there's no value going the other way here for the rematch as the Wolfpack have just two road wins this year while averaging 56.8 PPG away from home.   10* Utah State

10* Phoenix (8:05 ET):  With Oklahoma City now playing well, it's more important than ever for the Suns to keep winning.  Coming into Tuesday, Phoenix has a 1.5 game lead over both New Orleans and OKC for the eighth and final playoff spot in the loaded Western Conference. Tonight, they host a team above them in the standings, that being Houston, in what will be the Suns' final game before the All-Star Break.  The Rockets, who are off an outright loss at home to Portland two days ago, must play the Clippers in LA tomorrow night.  While the impact of home court advantage has lessened some this year, really a SU win = an ATS win in this situation, so I'll back Phoenix in a game they "have to have."  

The Suns are off a loss here as well, only theirs is worse, that being an 85-83 setback at the hands of Sacramento on Sunday. The game was decided at the buzzer, on a Boogie Cousins' 19-footer, which was the fourth time this season that Phoenix has lost at the gun. That's the most buzzer-beating losses for any team in the past 10 seasons, and keep in mind we're not even at the All-Star Break yet.  So, if the Suns don't make the playoffs, we'll be able to point to something as the primary culprit. In some ways, they were lucky to even be in Sunday's game as they had to rally back from 14 pts down. But here at home, they're easier to like as they average 106.8 points per game on 47.8% shooting. Therefore, don't expect a repeat of the poor shooting we saw in Sacramento where they finished at 36.3% from the field.

One of Phoenix's other losses at the buzzer this season came against the Rockets, here at home, back on January 23rd.   Houston has won five of seven since then, all w/out Dwight Howard, but a problem I'm seeing is some predictable regression on the defensive end.  In three of the last four games, Houston has given up 109+ points, which could mean trouble tonight against the league's 5th best scoring offense.  This is actually a double revenge spot for the Suns as they lost in Houston back in December.  10* Phoenix

8* Buffalo (7:00 ET):  Here's a team that I just played AGAINST Saturday as they (Buffalo) came up just short in a close decision at Akron (lost 78-75 as 2.5-pt dogs).  The Bulls are now only 1-6 ATS their last seven games and are one-game back of a three-way tie for first place in the MAC East.   Tonight, they host the MAC West leaders (Toledo) in a game they almost "have to have" and back at home, I expect them to take care of business.  Buffalo has won all eight of its home games this season while averaging over 80 points per game. 

Toledo is on a five-game win streak and has successfully covered the spread in their last three.  But their last four wins have all come at the expense of the bottom of the conference.  They've lost four of the five times they've been an underdog this season and the number we're working w/ here is so small that the chances of it coming into play is relatively small.  So too is the Rockets repeating Saturday's performance at Ball State where they never trailed and shot 54% from the floor.   This is their second road game in four days, a situation they have not yet faced in conference play.

One player to keep an eye on here is Buffalo's Justin Moss, who leads the MAC in both scoring and rebounding.  He was originally set to play for Toledo before a heart condition temporarily sidetracked his career.  I expected him to play a very inspired game tonight.  The Bulls are 11-1 SU when favored this season and with the home court, I look for them to bounce back from Saturday's tough loss that really could have gone either way.  8* Buffalo

8* Michigan State (7:00 ET):  This edition of Spartans' basketball is clearly not as strong as previous ones under HC Tom Izzo, but I feel they should bounce back from an outright loss in East Lansing (59-54 to Illinois) here at Northwestern.  Yes, they're laying points (on the road) and have failed to cover six of their last seven games.  But Northwestern is in REALLY bad shape right now as they come into Tuesday on a nine-game losing streak.  The Wildcats have been extraordinarily "unlucky" in Big 10 play, losing five games by either five pts or less or in overtime. One of those came against Sparty back on January 11th, an 84-77 loss that went to OT.  I don't anticipate the rematch being as close. Lay the points.

Northwestern has not been as close in recent games, starting w/ the time I played against them here at home vs. Purdue, a 68-60 loss as two-point dogs.  Neither game in February has gone well either as they've lost by 16 at Nebraska and by 18 at Wisconsin.  They trailed by as many as 22 Saturday in Madison and were outrebounded 39-25, including 13-5 on the offensive glass.  

So why don't I think this rematch will be as close as the first game, even though it's in Evanston? Well, Michigan State is 10-3 ATS its last 13 visits here, plus I have to imagine they're going to start improving on their woeful free throw shooting (62.1% this year!).  They are also 15-5 ATS L20 as a road favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range.  They are a perfect 3-0 SU this year off a conference loss and 70-29 SU all-time in that role under Izzo.  So Sparty's chances of bouncing back from what happened Saturday are strong.  I don't see them shooting 38.5% from the field again, plus they missed 11 of 18 free throws!  That overshadowed a pretty solid effort on the defensive end and Northwestern has been held to 60 pts or less in three straight games.  The road team should come in and roll.  8* Michigan State

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET):  Other than Atlanta currently having the best record in the league, I think a case could be made that Milwaukee has been the NBA's biggest surprise so far this season.  A year removed from finishing w/ the league's worst overall record, they are in sixth in the Eastern Conference and seem to be a pretty safe bet to make the playoffs.  Say what you will about HC Jason Kidd, but he's got the team playing well.  Speaking of "safe bets," that's exactly what the Bucks have become, going 33-17-1 against the spread.  Only Atlanta is better and that's because Milwaukee has failed to cover three straight. I think that they return to the pay window tonight at the expense of a Nets team that just got clobbered in Washington Saturday night.

It's amazing that Brooklyn was actually a 6.5-point favorite the first time these teams played this season.  Typically, that signals that there might be some value in going w/ them in the rematch, but I think it's pretty clear at this point that the Nets were overvalued coming into the season and the Bucks undervalued.  Milwaukee won that first matchup, 122-118 in triple overtime, in Brooklyn.  It was a game where emotions were high because of Kidd's return to the place where he coached last year.  Here at the Bradley Center, there should be less distraction, plus the Bucks have won four in a row at home. 

Though still in contention for a playoff spot in the weak East, the Nets are not a good team.  They have a scoring differential that's worse than all but five teams.   This after being annihilated by the Wizards Saturday night, 114-77 as 6.5-point dogs.  That ended a three-game win streak, but don't count on the Nets bouncing back here.  They trailed the Wizards by 30 entering the fourth quarter when the respective benches were emptied.  PG Deron Williams has just been awful from the field lately and missed all eight shots he took Saturday night.  The Bucks have cleaned up against losing teams this year, going 19-7 at the betting window.  Lay the short number. 10* Milwaukee

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  Orlando is off a crushing home loss last night to Chicago. I know because I was on them.  Now they did cover, plus the points, for a fourth consecutive game. They actually trailed by 16 after the first quarter before rallying to take a six-point advantage w/ just under two minutes to go. Then the wheels came off as the Bulls scored the final seven points, all off Magic turnovers. After that kind of result, I'd say Orlando is ripe to be blown out for the first time since firing Jacque Vaughn. 

Washington got back on track Saturday w/ a blowout win over Brooklyn, 114-77 as 6.5-point favorites.  That snapped a season-high five-game losing streak, not to mention a nine-game ATS losing streak.  The team is now 7-2 SU when Bradley Beal does not play and while I'm not going to make a case that the Wizards are better w/out thier starting SG, the record does say otherwise.  Predicting a Washington SU win here should really not even be disputed as the team is 26-9 SU when favored this year.  They are also a perfect 7-0 SU vs. Orlando the last 2 seasons, including a pair of wins earlier this season. 

The only question, in my mind, is whether or not the Wizards can cover.  They are probably due to given their ATS woes prior to the Brooklyn game.  Then you have the fact Orlando is unrested after blowing a late lead at home.  I just see the Magic coming into this one w/ little left "in the tank."  8* Washington

8* Florida State (7:00 ET):  Duke is coming off a massive revenge spot where they clobbered Notre Dame 90-60 as 9.5-point favorites.  Therefore, off a quick turnaround, this game isn't likely to have their full attention.  That could be a problem as Florida State has covered five of its last six games, including a 73-65 win at Virginia Tech on Saturday.  This looks to be a pretty generous number considering the 'Noles were able to stick w/ North Carolina (lost by only four) as 14.5-point dogs in Chapel Hill about two weeks ago. Is Duke that much better than UNC that the line should be this high in Tallahassee? I think not.  Take the points.

I simply cannot see Duke duplicating the offensive performance we saw Saturday when they shot 60 percent for the game and over 80 percent (not a typo!) in the 1H. At one point, they went on a 43-7 against the Irish in what Coach K dubbed "best half we've played all season."  While Duke has a solid 9-2 record away from Durham, they did struggle in a recent three-game road trip.   That included a loss to the Irish, plus come from behind wins over St. John's and Virginia. Somehow they still managed to cover in those two wins, but the margin for error tonight is slimmer w/ such a high pointspread. 

In addition to almost upsetting North Carolina, FSU also beat another Top 25 foe (at the time), that being Miami here in Tallahassee.   This will be the most points they've gotten in any home game in the last three seasons.  They haven't been in a game decided by double digits since January 11th.  This shapes up as the biggest home game of the year for the Seminoles, so they should enjoy tremendous crowd support and you have to figure Duke is getting their best shot.  8* Florida State

10* Baylor (7:00 ET):  Outside of maybe Texas Tech, there simply aren't many "freebies" in the Big 12 this year as it's the deepest conference in all of the land. Oklahoma State, fresh off an "upset" of Kansas in Stillwater (technically, the Pokes were the underdogs) Saturday, will find that out tonight as they now have to travel to Baylor.  The Cowboys actually pulled off two close wins last week, also winning at Texas by five.  After such a big win Saturday though, I just hate this spot for them and that's w/ their hosts also being off a SU dog win.  I just view what Baylor did to West Virginia, in Morgantown, as more impressive. The Bears won 87-69 as six-point dogs for their third straight win and cover. All three wins have been by double digits. Lay the points.

In Waco this year, Baylor is 13-1 straight up. The one loss came by a single point to Kansas.  Their last three games here at the Ferrell Center have all resulted in double digits wins w/ the Bears covering the spread by a collective 40 points.  This is also a revenge spot for them as they fell 64-53 in Stillwater on January 27th, which is their only defeat over the L6 games.  They shot very poorly in that game (34.5% from the floor) en route to scoring a season low in points.   That was one of only three times all season that Baylor has been beaten by more than two points!  Oklahoma State has not won here in Waco in nine years. 

The Cowboys will be gunning for their third straight win over a Top 25 team, which would be a record for the program.  The problem is that Baylor just might be the best of the bunch in the Big 12 as they not only are 4th in the country in rebounding, but have also averaged 82.3 points per game on 50.6% shooting (includes nearly 50% from 3-pt range!) during the three-game win streak.  Turnovers were also an issue in the first matchup w/ OSU (had 13 of them), but Baylor looked a lot better against the press Saturday in Morgantown.   Overall, the Bears are 5-1 ATS L6 matchups in this rivalry and 12-4 ATS since joining the conference.  The slight improvements they've made, coupled with the homecourt edge, should be enough for them to prevail by a margin larger than what the linesmakers are calling for here.  10* Baylor

8* Orlando (6:05 ET):  This will be the second game in a row that I'm playing the Magic.  Taking in their season as a whole, it feels as if this would not be the best team to back regularly, but consider they've now covered three in a row.  More importantly, they won their last time out, 103-97 over the Lakers in overtime, in their first game since firing Jacque Vaughn.  This is a lot of points to be getting at home and it's not a great spot for visiting Chicago either as they are in the second night of back to backs and at the end of a six game trip.  Take the points. 

I think that the main reason this line is a little bit inflated is because of what the Bulls did last night in New Orleans where they destroyed the Pelicans 107-72 as slight two-point favorites.  A key part of that game was Anthony Davis leaving in the first half w/ a shoulder injury.  Actually, in retrospect, you could say that was the determining factor in the result.  Without Davis on the floor, the Bulls outscored the Pelicans by 35 points and shot 24 percentage points better from the field. 

It should be pointed out that Chicago had lost three straight going into last night's game and four of their last five.  Defensively, they have not been as strong this year as previous editions under HC Tom Thibodeau, so again they're not a great candidate to be laying this many points away from home.  They lost outright to the Lakers early on in the trip as a 10-point choice.  Not only are they 8-16 ATS this year vs. teams w/ losing records, but they are 3-6 ATS off a double digit win.  8* Orlando

10* Detroit (6:05 ET):   Minnesota is coming off B2B one-point victories. The last one was a real stunner as they trailed Memphis by seven w/ just 1:47 to go.  This is a team that has not won three games in a row all season. In fact, this is their first winning streak of the year!  It's also a road game.  They're 4-22 SU on the road this season and their last win away from home January 17th, which is their only road win since the New Year.  That includes a loss at Philadelphia.  Detroit has won three of four w/ every victory coming by double digits and has revenge from a very early season loss.  Lay the points.

Here at home, the Pistons are 8-3 straight up and the best news of all is that they're starting to play some defense.   They just held Denver to 88 points on Friday and the game was an even bigger blowout than the final score shows as Pistons led 80-62 after three quarters.  Though PG Brandon Jennings has been lost for the season, the team's big men are now playing well as Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond combined for 34 points and 34 rebounds Friday.   This is a team that early in the season couldn't cover a game when favored.  But they cashed as 6.5-point chalk vs. Denver and are now 2-0 ATS this year as home favorites of 6.5 to 9 points.  Minnesota is a worse team than the Nuggets, so there's some line value here. 

The Timberwolves are not a good defensive team.  In fact, they give up the most points per game in the entire league, including 110.1 PPG on the road.  Off a SU dog win, they are 0-6 straight up and 1-4-1 ATS this year.  So this is traditionally not a situation they thrive in and w/ the Pistons having improved so dramatically over the last month, I see them likely winning this game by double digits. 10* Detroit

8* Memphis (6:05 ET):  After having their 19-game win streak snapped Monday, the Hawks have gotten right back "on the horse," posting B2B wins over Washington and Golden State.  The team is now a remarkable 34-3 SU its last 37 games. Yet, for a second straight game they will be an underdog to a Western Conference opponent.  But the difference here is they will be on the road.  Looking at Atlanta's recent schedule, you'll notice that there simply are not many road games to speak of.  In fact, Monday's loss in New Orleans was the ONLY time they played a game away from home in the last three weeks!  The Grizzlies are a great home team (21-5 SU), so I absolutely do not mind laying the points in this situation. 

Memphis is coming off an embarrassing loss Friday in Minnesota.  Prior to that, they'd been just as hot as Atlanta, winning 12 of 13, including eight straight. To be blunt, the loss in Minnesota shouldn't have even happened as the Grizzlies blew a seven-point lead in the final 1:47.  So we're going to be getting a motivated home side tonight.  I should also point out how Memphis leads the league in scoring defense, allowing just 95.9 points per game.  Even more impressive is that only once in the last nine games have they allowed more than that.  They've given up 90 pts or less in five of their last six games.

This is a revenge spot for the Grizzlies.  They lost 96-86 in Atlanta last month, but at the time weren't playing nearly as well as they are now (Friday aside).  At the time, it was their seventh loss in 11 games.  They also didn't have Zach Randolph in the lineup.  Over the L8 home games, Randolph has averaged 20.1 PPG and 14.9 RPG.  Also, Memphis has gone 8-1 SU at home this year against the Eastern Conference.   I'll look for them to hand the Hawks a rare defeat tonight.  8* Memphis

10* Bucknell (2:00 ET):   We're going to the Patriot League Sunday as Bucknell will be looking to move into a first place tie w/ Colgate and all they have to do is defeat last place Holy Cross.  Therefore, given the stakes, I'm fairly shocked that pointspread isn't higher here.  I realize that the difference between first and worst in this league isn't what it is in some other conferences and you can't always get a line on these Patriot League matchups, but we can here and the home team is drastically undervalued. 

Bucknell is coming off B2B losses and both games could have gone either way. One was by two, here at home, to Colgate.  The other, which came earlier this week, was an overtime affair at Lafayette.  Making what happened Wednesday even more painful was that the Bison blew a 15-point lead by allowing their opponents to shoot 63 percent from the floor in the second half.   Also adding to the motivation level here is that Bucknell is looking to avenge another OT loss, that one coming at Holy Cross back on January 10th.  After that, they would go on to win five straight before the B2B losses.

I mentioned earlier that ATS info for both of these schools is somewhat sketchy.  Bucknell is just 1-3 ATS in its four lined games and has not covered as a favorite once in the last three seasons (0-6 ATS).  However, with the inconsistencies of their games being lined, I wouldn't read too much into that.  During the recent five-game win streak, four of the wins came by at least six points. That one ATS win this year came at Villanova, whom they lost to by only seven.   As for Holy Cross, two of their three lined games have been the last two and they've split them.  But both were at home and on the road the Crusaders have won just one time all season, all the way back on Dec 3 at Albany.  Look for Bucknell to avenge that earlier loss and move into a first place tie.   10* Bucknell 

10* Dallas (8:35 ET):  Not to beat a dead horse, but the Western Conference is just loaded this year.  Behind Golden State is six teams separated by five games, these two among them.  Dallas has won four of its last five, the lone loss coming to Golden State.  The most recent win was also their most dominant as the Kings had no chance, even in Sacramento, with a final score of 101-78.  Meanwhile, the last time we saw Portland, I was on them as they rolled to a comfortable 108-87 win in Phoenix.  But of the two teams here, the Blazers are certainly the one that's been struggling more. They'd lost seven of 10 going into Thursday night and while I liked them because they were desperate there, I am gonna go with the Mavs at home tonight.

These teams have met only one time previously this season, in Portland, and it was the Blazers winning in a landslide, 108-87 as two-point favorites back in November.  While I'm starting to question just how much the home court edge is worth in today's NBA, there can be no denying that Portland has not been at its best away from home recently, losing six straight - all to potential playoff teams.  They went 0-3 ATS on a recent trip East to play Atlanta, Cleveland and Milwaukee, and they lost to the same Phoenix team they just beat at home.  So I do think the home court matters more than the linesmakers are saying it does here, especially w/ Dallas averaging 108.4 PPG at American Airlines Center. 

I've said it before, but I'll restate it here - I'm just not afraid of playing the Mavs even though they are without PG Rajon Rondo.  Most of their numbers had actually declined since bringing Rondo into the fold.  Keep in mind this team led by as many as 22 vs. Golden State Wednesday (on the road!) and the following night didn't even have Dirk Nowitzki in the lineup when they blew out Sacramento. So what we have here is a Mavs team that's held a double digit lead in each of their last five games.  Again, even w/ the decline of "homecourt advantage" in today's NBA, this is a good value.  10* Dallas

10* Akron (7:00 ET):  This is a big game in the MAC East as Akron hosts Buffalo.  These are two of the four teams currently tied for the division lead (6-3 conference records) coming into Saturday.  The overall records are quite similar between these two as well as Bowling Green and Kent State.  Having already swept BG, Akron could have a real inside track to winning the division if they were to prevail here (and provided they at least split w/ rival Kent State). Fortunately, tonight's game is in their gym where they've lost only once all season, that being back in December by a single point to Middle Tennessee.  Off a one-point loss at Ohio on Wednesday, I'll look for the Zips to bounce back and take care of business.

Buffalo has won three straight, the most recent game being an 82-78 victory at Ball State as six-point favorites. While they won the game, the Bulls did drop to 1-5 ATS L6 by not covering.  Previously, they had lost three straight on the road.  It will clearly be a challenge tonight against an Akron team that's 11-1 at the JAR, thanks to allowing just 58.1 points per game. All three times Buffalo has been a road dog of three points or less this season, they have both lost and failed to cover.  Against Ball State Wednesday, the Bulls were able to get to the free throw line alot considering they were the road team. Also, remember that Ball State is a pretty bad team that's now on a seven-game losing streak.

Akron has played a number of close games recently, with the last two both decided by a single point, one in their favor and the other not.  They actually led Ohio by 10 at halftime, in Athens, Wednesday before things took a dramatic swing in the final 20 minutes.  The Zips ended up trailing by ten themselves w/ just over two minutes to go before nearly pulling off what would have been a nice come from behind win.   Incredibly, four of Akron's last five games have been decided by four points or less.  But what we also know is they are 2-0 ATS off their previous two conference losses, blowing out Bowling Green and winning at Western Michigan.  Make it 3 for 3 after tonight.  10* Akron

10* Loyola IL (4:00 ET):  Everyone besides Wichita State and Northern Iowa is stuck "playing for third place" in the Missouri Valley and looking at Loyola's upcoming schedule, they have a good chance at moving up the standings. They'll host Southern Illinois before traveling to Bradley next week, and note those are the two last place teams in the conference. But first they'll need to take care of business against Indiana State here at home. After losing five in a row, most of them close, the Ramblers finally got back into the win column w/ a 53-50 win at Missouri State Wednesday.  The Indiana State team they'll host here is in what we call a "sandwich spot" as they are off a loss to Northern Iowa and host Wichita State on Wednesday. This has the look of a game that will not have the visiting Sycamores' full attention, thus I'll lay the small number.

These teams met not that long ago (January 24th) in Terre Haute and it was Indiana State coming away w/ the 72-61 win as a five-point choice at the betting window.  One key takeaway for that game is that Loyola actually finished w/ 13 offensive rebounds, leading to a 16-5 edge in second chance points. I don't see ISU replicating its hot shooting (53.3 percent overall including 12-23 from three-point range) from that first matchup as road games have largely been an adventure this season for the Syacamores.  They've lost their last three and this is a team that shoots just 42.7 percent for the year. 

Loyola, who has covered three straight, is holding teams to an average of 59.5 PPG for the year, including 57.5 PPG here at home.  Since allowing Indiana State to scored 72 pts, the Ramblers have held their previous three opponents all below their scoring averages. They've allowed just 98 points total the L2 games and holding a team to just 19 points in the first half, on the road, like they did vs. Missouri State is pretty impressive.  After holding their previous opponent to 60 points or less, the Ramblers are a strong 8-2 ATS this season. 10* Loyola IL

8* Vanderbilt (4:00 ET):  It's atypical that I would play a team off a SU dog win like the one Vandy is off here, but I'm going to make an exception as they get to play host to South Carolina.  The Commies beat Florida on Tuesday, 67-61 as 2.5-point home dogs.  So, it wasn't exactly the biggest upset of all time, nor something too likely to cause any kind of major letdown.  They also get a break in the sense that the opponent is pretty weak.  South Carolina has gone just 2-7 SU/1-8 ATS in SEC play and has lost five of its last six as well.  They're tied w/ Vandy in the conference standings, ahead of only Missouri, but the Commodores have the homecourt edge and they are the play here laying only a small number.

The Gamecocks are actually 12-4 against the spread when visiting Memorial Gymnasium, dating all the way back to '97.  But this will be also be their first visit since 2013 when they were beaten 72-64 as 8.5-point dogs.  Things did not look good for Frank Martin's team on Tuesday when they were blown out, 75-55, at Arkansas.  For the game, the team shot below 30 percent and turned it over 20 times.  They missed 25 of 33 shot attempts in the second half as things got out of hand.  Two players, Demetrius Henry and Justin McKie, are in danger of missing a fourth consecutive game due to concussion protocol.  South Carolina is averaging just 62.9 PPG away from home, a big reason why they're just 3-6 straight up in such games.  They've lost all four SEC road games. 

Vanderbilt, despite its poor record, is the top shooting team in the league at 46.9% overall.  They also lead the SEC in three-point shooting performance at 37.1 percent.  That kind of shooting, coupled w/ their unique home court edge, should provide enough of a difference for the Commies to cover easily here.  They never trailed against a good Florida team Tuesday and that's despite shooting the ball worse than usual.  The key was getting to the free throw line and crashing the boards and if they can outwork Florida in those departments, they can do the same to South Carolina.  8* Vanderbilt

8* St. John's (12:00 ET):  With seven losses in its last 10 games, St. John's has gone from Top 15 in the country to (right now) likely out of the NCAA Tournament altogether.  However, like the team I played last night (George Washington), the Red Storm remain on the cusp of the field of 68 (Joe Lunardi currently has them in his "first four out" category). In the interest of full disclosure, I did play against St. John's earlier this week, but that was when they paid a visit to streaking Butler, now a ranked team themselves, who has won six of its last seven. Today, the opponent is Creighton, who is in last place in the Big East and having its worst season in years. GW have failed to come through last night (barely), but I look for the Johnnie's to win this one - big.

Flagarant fouls, lack of composure and poor effort were the main reasons for Tuesday's 85-62 loss at Butler.  The final margin was the result of two runs, one at the start and one at the end of the game. St. John's started the game in an 8-0 hole and then Butler would also go on to score the final 15 points.  On their 22 made field goals, St. John's had just five assists while shooting only 37.3 percent from the field. (Butler shot 56.4%).  After such an embarrassing performance, naturally you would expect some kind of bounce back here. Fortunately, the Red Storm did cover after the only other time they allowed 80+ points this season, that being a blowout loss to Villanova, from which they recovered to defeat Providence on the road, 83-70 as three-point dogs. Fortunately, this game is at home where the Johnnies are 8-3 SU and holding teams to just 62.4 points per game.

Meanwhile, this has not been a good year for Creighton, which was to be expected after the graduation of Doug McDermott. After enduring the worst losing skid in the history of the program last month (nine games), the Blue Jays have won two of three, including a real shocker at Xavier on Wednesday in overtime (won 79-72 as 13.5-pt pups). But you know how I often like to play AGAINST teams coming off big upsets and that's the situation Creighton finds itself in here.  I doubt we'll be seeing five players in double figures again here for the Blue Jays. BTW, St. John's has legit revenge for a three-point road loss 11 days ago. 8* St. John's

8* Houston (8:05 ET):  Milwaukee has been lethal in the underdog role this season, going 22-9 against the spread, which is the driving force behind the them currently having the league's best record at the betting window overall (33-15-1 ATS).  They failed to cover in their last game, but that was as a large favorite against the Lakers, a game that they rallied back to win in overtime.  They're back in their more customary role of taking points tonight, but I'm "Bucking the trend" as they'll have to deal w/ a Rockets team that's won five of six, including a 101-90 decision here at home over Chicago Wednesday night.  They are 4-1 SU w/out Dwight Howard and have won seven of their last eight home games.  Lay the points. 

Surprisingly, there has been no ill-effects on the defensive end for the Rockets w/out Howard as opponents have averaged just 94.4 points per game in the five games he has missed.  That's actually four points LESS than their overall season average.  The Rockets won 117-103 in Milwaukee back in November and have beaten them 12 of the last 14 meetings here in Houston.  They shot better than 50% in November and I anticipate they'll again have too much offensively for the Bucks to handle tonight.  8* Houston

8* Indiana (7:05 ET):  The Cavs are on quite the roll right now (12 straight wins & counting), and I backed them last night as they destroyed the Clippers at home.  The game was not as close as the 105-94 final score indicates (Cleveland led by as many as 32), but following such an impressive performance I feel that Lebron and company may be in store for a bit of a letdown tonight as, unrested, they must visit Indiana.  The Pacers are coming off a 114-109 win over Detroit here at home Wednesday and continue to be a bit tougher of an "out" than you might think. They've been outscored, on average, by less than two points per game this year, so taking the points seems wise in this situation.

I'm not going to be able to make a very strong case for going against Cleveland here other than that they are in a letdown spot.  But then again, the last two times they found themselves playing w/out rest, they did struggle some.  Once was against Portland, when they were w/out Lebron and needed a career high 55 points from Kyrie Irving.  The other came several days later in Minnesota as they won 106-90, but needed to outscore the lowly T'wolves 30-11 in the fourth quarter. The bulk of the Cavs' win streak has come at home, where they've played eight of their last 10 games.  The only other road game besides Minnesota was in Detroit and they (just barely) failed to cover there. 

Indiana, meanwhile, has only won three times in its last 12 games.  But as a dog, they're a more than respectable 16-12 ATS this season.  They've also beaten Cleveland eight straight times here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, though most of those wins came when Lebron was in Miami.  Still, the Pacers do have PG George Hill back and he played very well on Wednesday, registering a season-high in points (20) in his first action since January 23rd.   I expect this game to be a very close call w/ the Pacers having a very decent chance at pulling the upset.  8* Indiana

8* Orlando (7:05 ET):  As had been widely speculated on for some time, the Magic made Jacque Vaughn disappear, firing the now former HC yday.  The move came on the heels of the team's 10th straight loss (longest active losing streak in the league), which took place Wednesday in San Antonio.  In that game, as well as in a road loss at Oklahoma City two days prior, Orlando had stayed competitive, covering the spread both times. I suppose it's fair to say that Vaughn, a 1st time head coach, was in a really tough situation w/ such a bad roster.  Ironically, his replacement (on an interim basis), James Borrego, probably couldn't have asked for a better matchup for his debut.  The Magic are actually favored tonight, and with a coaching change usually comes a temporary boost in play, so I'll lay the points in this battle of bottom five teams. 

The Lakers aren't doing much better than Orlando right now.  They've dropped 11 of 12 and just fell in overtime at Milwaukee, 113-105.  As you know, Kobe Bryant is out for the season, and while I felt his presence was doing more harm than good, that doesn't necessarily mean the Lakers are better off without him.  The team has dropped nine in a row away from home and is allowing 107.4 points per game this season.  While Los Angeles has been fairly respectable at the betting window this year, that's because they're usually catching a lot of points from the linesmakers.  Here, that's not the case, which bears mentioning because they are only 9-35 SU as dogs.  Forward Jordan Hill is out and won't return until after the All-Star Break. 

The Magic not only have the motivation of trying to look good for their interim HC, but also they'll be looking to avenge last month's 101-84 loss at Staples Center.  The Lakers have only won one time since.  It should be noted that Bryant did not play in that first meeting, but it's unlikely that the Lakers will be receiving a repeat performance from rookie Tarik Black, who went for career highs of 14 points and nine rebounds that game. In fact, Black is hardly seeing any playing time at all these days. Orlando may only be 2-5 ATS as a favorite, but both covers came as a home favorite of three points or less.  8* Orlando

10* George Washington (7:00 ET):  This is a big game for the Colonials, who according to Joe Lunardi are one of the "first four out" of the NCAA Tournament field. Beating a Dayton team currently projected in the field of 68 would do wonders for GW's cause and getting this game at home has me inclined to lay the short number.  George Washington is coming off a pair of road losses, one that I was on (72-48 at VCU), then last Saturday at Rhode Island, 59-55 as 2.5-point pups.  While the Colonials clearly aren't coming into this game in "top form," one needs to remember that prior to a 101-77 blowout of lowly Fordham on Sunday, Dayton had lost two of three w/ the only victory coming by a small margin (three points) at home against Richmond. The Flyers have dropped their last two road games, at Davidson & UMass. Again, lay the points.

Despite a poor 1st half on Saturday, GW was actually able to rally to take the lead w/ just over five minutes to go.  In retrospect, it's maybe a game that the Colonials should have won as they held Rhode Island to just 37.3% shooting from the floor, including 1 of 19 on three-point attempts. The difference was the Rams going 20 of 22 from the free throw line, many of those coming down the stretch, while GW was a paltry 9 for 17 from the charity stripe.  We can expect more solid defense from the Colonials tonight as they are holding teams to an average of just 59.9 points per game this season, which is a big reason they are also a perfect 9-0 SU at home.  Their average margin of victory here at the Charles E. Smith Center is just over 18 points per game.

Meanwhile, Dayton has played a pretty easy schedule to this point.  As I mentioned before, you can't read too much into the blowout win over Fordham because Fordham shouldn't even be in the Atlantic 10.  The Flyers have not beaten a single ranked team all season and to be honest, I'm not even sure what qualifies as their "best win."  A two-point win over Texas A&M back in November? Or a four-point win over Ole Miss right before the New Year? Four of their six wins over the RPI Top 100 have been by four points or less, and I'm not putting a ton of stock into this team's record.   At 1-3 SU/ATS as an underdog already this season, look for Dayton to struggle to score tonight. 10* George Washington

10* Portland (10:35 ET):  The Blazers, who have been one of the league's top teams most of the year and in my opinion still a lock to win the Northwest Division, have stumbled a bit lately.  They're 0-4 ATS their last four games and 2-9 ATS their L11.  After returning home from a three-game East Coast trip (went 0-3 SU/ATS), they pulled out a one-point win over Utah here at home Tuesday night.  Though it was closer than expected, this Portland team is now 21-5 SU at home and I feel can cover this small number against the all of a sudden slumping Suns, who have struggled to win games away from home.  

To get back on track, Portland needs Damian Lillard to get back on track.  Widely considered to be an All-Star Game "snub," Lillard has struggled since the news broke he wouldn't be competing in New York City later this month.  Lillard did lead the team in scoring Tuesday w/ 25 pts, but is now just 20 percent from three-point range over the L10 games.  However, there's nothing wrong w/ LaMarcus Aldridge, who will be an All-Star. He's turned in four consecutive double-doubles, averaging 28.8 PPG and 11.5 RPG.   Also, Robin Lopez is back in the lineup and that should help the Blazers regain their lost rebounding edge.  This team had struggled on the glass in the games that Lopez had missed, but still ranks 3rd in the league in # of rebounds per game, thanks in large part to Lopez. 

Phoenix has lost its last three road games as well as five of its last seven.  They've been playing at home a majority of the time over the last month or so.  The one road game they've played since January 12th resulted in a 19-point loss at Golden State last Saturday.  I took them as a home dog Monday vs. Memphis and while they covered, they still lost the game 102-101.  I was surprised to learn that Phoenix is 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS the last eight meetings w/ Portland, so I think things are due to swing "the other way" tonight and the home team wins big.  10* Portland

8* Oregon State (10:00 ET):  Though now may not be the best time to say it, Wayne Tinkle has done one of the better turnaround jobs in the country this season at Oregon State.  Removed from the throes of the Craig Robinson (Barack Obama's brother in law!) era, the Beavers are 14-7 SU and in the top half of the Pac 12 currently.  That's after being blown out in their last two games, both on the road, as well.  Last Friday at Arizona figured to not go very well as it was a revenge game for the Wildcats, whom OSU had beaten here in Corvallis earlier in the year.  The Beavers have been a much different team at home all season long (12-0!) and I expect them to roll tonight against a bad Washington State team that's coming off a SU dog win.  

Prior to upsetting Stanford, 89-88 as nine-point dogs in Pullman Saturday night, Wazzu had lost four in a row while also going 0-4 against the spread. Oregon State has only two road wins all year and one of them came at the expense of these Cougars, 62-47, back on January 17th.   That started the four-game losing streak for Washington State and it should be pointed out that in their previous two road games, they were beaten by a combined 54 points.  They have four league wins this season. All have been by three points or less or in overtime.  This is a huge letdown spot after beating Stanford, a game where the Cougars sank 30 free throws and shot 60 percent in the second half, numbers that I'd say will be almost impossible to duplicate here. 

As for Oregon State, their offensive numbers aren't great, but their defensive numbers are as visiting teams are averaging just 53 points per game here in Corvallis.  Again, they're unbeaten this season at Gill Coliseum, beating not only Arizona, but UCLA, Depaul and UC Santa Barbara as well.  Even more impressive is that they are 10-1 ATS at home and if you think that's solely because they've been undervalued, take note of the Beavers' 7-1 ATS mark when favored so far this season. It's difficult to imagine things could possibly be any worse than they were vs. Arizona and the team is 2-0 ATS when playing w/ 5+ days rest.   Meanwhile, Washington State is 0-6 ATS this year after giving up 80+ pts their last game.  8* Oregon State

10* Louisiana Lafayette (8:15 ET):  Though the Ragin Cajuns have lost five of their last seven games, it's difficult to imagine visiting Appalachian State staying with them tonight in the the Cajundome. Yes, the pointspread seems high for two teams that are separated by just one-half game in the Sun Belt standings.  But App State is coming off a horrible-looking 83-46 loss at Georgia Southern in their last game and averages just 63.4 points per game.  ULL has been a strong home team this year, particularly when it comes to putting the ball in the basket as they average 89.3 PPG.  Overall, they rank in the top 15 nationally in scoring. Lay the points.

These teams already met once this year and it was Louisiana Lafayette dominating in an 80-64 road win.  It was a milestone win for HC Bob Martin as it was his 300th career victory at the D-I level.  The game was never really that close as the Ragin Cajuns led by 14 at halftime and by as many as 20 in the second half. They shot 51.7 percent compared to just 39.1 percent for the Mountaineers and we should expect something similar here as those numbers are right in line w/ how the two shoot at home and on the road respectively.  Lafayette has scored 80 or more points 11 times in its last 15 games, none of which have gone beyond regulation, while App State has scored that many in a game just twice all season and one of those came in a loss where they allowed 105 points to South Alabama.

The loss to Georgia Southern was an ugly one for the Mountaineers as they shot a woeful 28.8 percent for the game, missing 17 of 19 three-pointers.  Not a single player on the team reached double figures in scoring.   They had just 16 points at halftime.  Meanwhile, ULL didn't even hit its season average in points Saturday vs. Texas State, yet still won comfortably.  I realize that the underdog has had a full week off to prepare here, but that alone will not be enough.  10* Louisiana Lafayette

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET):  This shapes up as a great matchup on paper. However, I feel the deciding factor is that the game is taking place in Cleveland.  Not that the Cavs have enjoyed any kind of special homecourt edge this year, but as I've talked about before, when the Clippers started this season-long eight game trip, no team in the league had played fewer road games.  They're 1-3 ATS on the trip so far, ironically the one win coming when they were underdogs, but after a 102-100 loss at Brooklyn Monday night, they dropped to just 13-9 SU away from home this season (9-13 ATS).  With the Cavs riding an 11-game win streak,  they are obviously in peak form and present a tremendous challenge to the Clippers.  Lay the points. 

Monday in Brooklyn saw the Clips blow a nine-point lead in the final 90 seconds.  That's tough to do, but when you miss 17 of 25 free throws in a game, it's certainly possible.  The one thing that I see as "sticking out" when it comes to LA's struggles on the road is that they allow 101.4 points per game.  You won't win a ton of games doing that and it's a big reason why the team is just 3-7 ATS its last 10.  Remember that they lost to Cleveland last month, at home, 126-121.  That was at the start of Cleveland's win streak, which has seen them take care of business here at Quicken Loans Arena.  They are 6-1 ATS L7 home games w/ Monday's 97-84 win over Philadelphia being the lone non-cover because they were caught laying 17 points. But all seven wins have come by 10 points or more and I expect the home team to come up big once again in the national TV game.   8* Cleveland

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET):  This is a tough spot for Washington, who has now failed to cover eight in a row following last night's 105-96 loss at Atlanta.  That was also the Wizards' fourth consecutive straight up loss as well.  Having to play the Hawks in the middle of this home and home w/ another division rival was tough enough, but coming up short last night is going to make it even harder on the Wiz.  For Charlotte, who won 92-88 (as 7.5-pt dogs) in D.C back on Monday, they've been waiting patiently for the rematch.  Remember, the Hornets have won 11 of their last 14 games overall and the only two teams to beat them so far in 2015 are Cleveland and San Antonio.  

I was on the Wizards last night.  One would have thought that the Hawks would be due to start "giving some back" after having their 19-game win streak snapped.  Plus, they (meaning Atlanta) had what appeared to be a lookahead to a game w/ Golden State on Friday.  But, Washington failed to take advantage, getting off to a slow start and never really threatened to take the game outright.   They are now 2-8 ATS vs. the rest of the division, including the loss to the Hornets earlier this week, and are also 2-8 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss.  If that's not bad enough, John Wall hurt his ankle last night. 

The key to the Hornets' resurgence has been their play on defense, which is reminiscent of the squad that made the playoffs a year ago.  Since the 1st of the year, Charlotte leads the league in scoring defense at 89.4 points per game w/ opponents shooting just 39.7 percent from the field.  Obviously, Washington was held right in line w/ those numbers on Monday and even more interesting is that the Hornets have beaten the Wizards four straight times (dating back to LY) while holding them to an average of 88.8 PPG.   Wall and Bradley Beal have really struggled for Washington in those L4 matchups, averaging less than 30 points combined.  Meanwhile, Charlotte is 5-1 SU w/out Kemba Walker and his replacement in the starting lineup, Brian Roberts, actually led the team in scoring w/ 18 points Monday night.  8* Charlotte.

8* Furman (7:00 ET): We're going to the Southern Conference for this one as Furman hosts Chattanooga.  Despite the respective records coming into this matchup, I like the home team getting points.  Chattanooga has a losing record away from home this year (3-6 straight up) and a good number of their recent wins have come by slight margins.  Furman, who had won three of four before losing at Samford on Saturday, is 6-3 SU at home and playing w/ legit revenge from a 12-point loss at Chattanooga back on January 3rd.  Take the points in this one.

Chattanooga has won all four matchups with Furman the last three seasons, none by a margin fewer than nine points.  So while history may not be on Furman's side here, I think that the situation is.  Saturday at Samford, a terrible start (fell behind 22-4!) doomed them, even though the Paladins were able to battle back and tie the game at halftime.  They held the Bulldogs below 40 percent shooting for the game and we should expect another strong defensive performance here considering that as the home team, they are limiting opponents to just 60.6 points per game on 40.1 percent shooting.

Chattanooga allowed its last opponent to shoot the ball very well, as The Citadel made nearly 59 percent of its attempts for the game!  This will be the first of three consecutive road games for the Mocs, a trip which ends w/ a showdown at first place Wofford.  Having lost their previous road game, at Mercer, it's tough to like Chattanooga laying points in this situation as four of their last six wins have been by six points or less.   8* Furman

10* Dallas (10:35 ET):  So I've picked a tough group of teams to go against tonight, none more so than the Warriors, who won again last night, defeating Sacramento 121-96 as 10-point road favorites.  I don't care how many games Atlanta won in a row, Golden State is clearly the best team in the league, but tonight they are laying a monster number against a top five opponent and I think the spread is just too high.  Dallas has won three straight and being without Rajon Rondo could be a blessing in disguise.  The Mavs obviously aren't going to want to be blown out on national TV (this is a ESPN game) and I think they have the horses necessary to keep pace w/ Golden State considering the Warriors are playing w/out rest. Take the points.

A case could actually be made that the Mavs got WORSE after acquiring Rondo from Boston. Going into Friday's game in Miami, Rondo as averaging just 6.8 PPG since January 4th and was held scoreless in the team's previous game.  The Mavs' win percentage with him was nearly .100 points lower than without him.  Not only were they averaging seven points per game less w/ Rondo, but they are also averaging a fewer number of assists!  Part of the issue was Rondo's absolutely unforgivable free throw shooting.   The team got back to 100 pts Monday night vs. Minnesota as Monta Ellis continued his streak of strong performances.

If you were wondering "is this the most points Dallas has gotten in any game this season," well, the answer is yes.  The previous high was just five points for what was the second game of back to backs in Denver.  The Warriors, who could perhaps close as double-digit favorites for a seventh consecutive game, did fail to cover three straight before routing both Phoenix and Sacramento.  They won 105-98 earlier this year in Dallas, a game where the pointspread hovered around a pick em.  This just seems like too many points to lay against a top five opponent, even at home.  10* Dallas

8* Utah (9:05 ET):  While the Jazz are by no means a "good" team yet, they have definitely improved from the last two years.  We'll find out just how improved they are tonight as they welcome in the red hot Memphis Grizzlies, winners of seven straight.  But remember, this is a Jazz team that just beat Golden State here in Salt Lake City last week.  Utah is 5-1 ATS its last six overall and while they did lose just last night in Portland, it was only by a single point as 8.5-point pups. Normally, I might shy away from a team playing in the second game of back to backs, but note that the Jazz had three days off before last night's game.  Also, Memphis is off a one-point victory of its own Monday in Phoenix.  Too many points to lay here.

  These teams played right before XMas (only meeting this season) in Memphis, and you'll be surprised to learn that it was Utah coming away w/ the 97-91 win (as eight-point dogs).  Fast forward to tonight and the line is almost identical despite the game being played in Utah.  The Grizzlies have not experienced much success here in Salt Lake City through the years, losing 27 of 35 games and that's with a wins in two of the past three visits.  The key here for the Jazz will be holding Memphis under 100 pts (0-18 SU when allowing 100+ this year). Fortunately, the Grizz average "only" 98.7 PPG away from home.  Utah has won five of its last seven games when playing w/out rest. 

I had the correct side and total play in Memphis' game vs. Phoenix Monday, taking the points and the Under.  In both situations, it was close.  But it should be noted that they trailed by seven with 3:31 to go in the game.  The Grizzlies are a pedestrian 11-11 ATS on the road this year and are only 8-12 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records.   This is a pretty big number to lay on the road, no matter the matchup, and the Jazz have covered each of the last four times they've been getting at least 6.5 points from the linesmakers.  8* Utah

8* Washington (7:35 ET):  This will be the first time since December 27th that Atlanta will be coming in off a loss.  Back then, they responded w/ a 90-85 win in the second game of a home and home w/ Milwaukee.  They'd go on to win 19 in a row and are an amazing 32-3 SU their last 35 games overall.  But now, it's time they started to "give some back."  Safe to say I may very well be "targeting" the Hawks as a "go-against" team for the foreseeable future. That includes tonight when they host Washington.  Even before losing to New Orleans on Monday, there had been signs of the Hawks' slipping as they're now only 1-4 ATS their last five games. The Wizards may not have Anthony Davis on their roster, but they are a desperate team playing w/ double revenge, so I'm taking the points.

Washington comes into this game on a three-game losing streak and has failed to cover seven in a row.  That sounds worse than it actually is considering their last five SU losses have all been by eight points or fewer. They were dogs only one time in the L7 games and while that's a role that's not really treated them well this season, they've reached a real desperation point now facing their first four-game losing streak all year.  They also have some major revenge on their minds for a 31-point loss the last time they visited this building, a game where they actually shot slightly better than the Hawks for the game, but were undone by making 11 less three-point attempts. 

I would not be surprised to see Atlanta somewhat "plateau" over the course of the second half of the season.  While they rank 6th in points and 3rd in assists, they are just 27th in rebounds per game, so they can be exploited there and that's what we saw against New Orleans when they really had no answer for Anthony Davis.  It will be interesting to see how the Hawks perform now that they've lost a game and looking at tonight specifically they're in a bit of a letdown/lookahead spot as they'll be hosting Golden State Friday night in a matchup of the best teams from the two respective conferences.  8* Washington

10* Northeastern (7:00 ET):  The Colonial isn't what it used to be, but one of the teams in contention to win the regular season crown this year is Northeastern, who is coming off a hot shooting performance in an 80-61 over Elon Saturday. That snapped a two-game losing streak (team had lost three of four as well) and now the Huskies return home to face Towson, who has surprisingly won three of four straight up while going 4-0 ATS.  This should be a game where the home team rolls as Towson is averaging just 62 points per game away from home while N'eastern is at 74.6 PPG at home.  Towson was a 12.5-pt dog when they won at Hofstra Saturday, so they're in letdown mode here and I'll lay the points.

Going into Saturday, Northeastern found itself on its first losing streak of the entire season.  But they shot 68 percent in the second half vs. Elon and nearly 60 percent for the entire game.  Their biggest lead was 27 points as it was their second straight home game where they won by a large margin.  Back on January 22nd, they clobbered James Madison here at Matthews Arena, 82-59, laying only seven points.  While the Huskies haven't exactly been the most reliable bunch off a strong performance, this is a team that you can typically count on to shoot the ball well (50.2% in conf play) and they've won six of eight at home.

Towson is shooting just 40% on the road this year.  The Tigers, who have a losing record overall and vs. the CAA, saw five players score in double figures Saturday in what was probably their best performance of the season.  They shot 57.8 percent at Hofstra and scored 50 pts in the second half en route to their highest point total against any D-I opponent this season.  Remember though, before winning three of four, the Tigers had dropped 10 of 11 games.  That includes a three-point loss at home to Northeastern 52-49 back on January 10th where they just barely covered as four-point dogs.  So there's a little bit of value here w/ the change in venue (number should be double digits) and w/ that first meeting being one of Towson's worst offensive performances of the season, I see them getting blown out here. 10* Northeastern

8* Ohio State (6:30 ET):  The Buckeyes destroyed Maryland last Thursday, 80-56 in Columbus, for their third straight win. That leaves them in a four-way tie for second in the Big 10 as they head to West Lafayette tonight to take on a Purdue team that's also on a three-game win streak.  The Boilermakers are also among those tied for second place in the conference. However, I don't really view these teams as being that even.  Ohio State's ranking is justified while Purdue not being in the Top 25 is similarly correct.  OSU has won six straight over Purdue and is 11-3 ATS against them the L14 matchups.  Lay the points.

Arguably, Ohio State's "best" two wins of the year have come in the L2 games as they defeated Indiana and Maryland at home by a combined 36 points.  Both opponents were ranked at the time of victory.  Against the Hoosiers, the Buckeyes shot a preposterous 62.3 percent from the field, for the game. Then against Maryland, defense was the story. The Terps shot just 30.5% overall and finished with only 16 points in the paint as almost every shot was contested. But the story remains Ohio State's offense as they rank 16th nationally in points per game (80.0) and 3rd in field goal percentage (50.7%).  Road games have been a bit of an adventure so far (2-4 SU incl loss to North Carolina at a neutral site) w/ both wins coming by exactly two points. But this looks like an easier task compared to previous trips.

Purdue has beaten two straight ranked opponents here at Mackey Arena, Iowa and Indiana.  They also beat Northwestern Saturday on the road, thanks to some unusually good free throw shooting. A team that ranks 11th (out of 14) in the conference from the line made 24 of 32, which is a high number of attempts for being the visitors.  This is a team that had just five Big 10 victories a year ago, but while they're clearly improved, I don't see them as being at Ohio State's level.  Matt Painter's team is 7-2 ATS its last nine, in games where the line was generally three points or less, but it catches up w/ them here. 8* Ohio State

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8* Sacramento (10:05 ET):  Golden State has begun to slow down from the furious pace they've been on much of the season.  They lost two in a row last week, to Chicago and Utah, giving up 110+ pts both times.  Saturday at home vs. Phoenix, the final score says they won by 19, but it was a close game at halftime w/ them leading by only one.  This will be the sixth consecutive game where they're laying double digits, so the oddsmakers are starting to catch up and, to me, that means that their 67.4% covering rate is bound to start going down because it's hard to keep covering spreads as large as these, especially on the road.  Take the points w/ Sacramento. 

This is a big revenge spot for the Kings, who were humiliated by Klay Thompson in the last meeting as the Warriors' sharp shooter went for 52 points, including a history-making 37 point third quarter.  It wound up being a 25-point win for Golden State, but it was only a five-point game at half.  In fact, Sacramento has been blown out all three times they've played this year, but it's interesting that they were only 4.5-point dogs in the first meeting here at home.   A key here is that the Warriors have lost five of their last seven on the road where they allow 101.2 PPG. 

The Kings snapped an eight-game losing streak with a 99-94 win at Indiana on Saturday.  They led by 13 after the first quarter and by as many as 23.  The fact their bench was outscored 56-11 did not matter.   This is just too many points to be laying on the road.   8* Sacramento

8* Syracuse (9:00 ET):   This is not the typical Syracuse team we're used to seeing. They're not a NCAA Tournament team right now and have dropped three of their last four games. The last loss came last Monday, at North Carolina, 93-83.  Despite the Tar Heels shooting ridiculously well (55.4 percent for the game!), the Orange were able to stay close (led at halftime) by forcing 20 turnovers.  In terms of opponent, they drop in class tonight to face Virginia Tech, who has lost eight of nine w/ the lone win coming in OT.  While Syracuse has struggled recently, they had won seven straight before this 1-3 SU stretch and this looks like a bounce back spot to me.  Lay the points. 

Virginia Tech has played better of late, which is evident by their 6-2 ATS record the L8 games.  They've covered three straight, all games by decided by exactly a three-point margin.  One of those was a win over Pitt in OT.   They also took Virginia down to the wire.  But like Northwestern, I see them as likely to be blown out here.  On the road, they have no wins and averaged 62.7 points per game.   

This is the second meeting of the year between these teams.  It was a two-point game in Blacksburg, so Syracuse didn't cover, but there's some value here as the line for that first game was 9.5 and it's roughly the same number here, even though we're now at the Carrier Dome where the Orange have gone 11-2 straight up.  Remember that the Hokies' leading rebounder Joey Van Zegeren has left the team as well.   8* Syracuse

10* Detroit (7:35 ET):  I had Miami Sunday as they went to Boston and won outright 83-75 as 3.5-pt dogs.  That's a pretty typical Heat score these days as they rank 29th (2nd worst) in the league in points scored (92.4) and 1st in points allowed (95.9).  However, the key here is the situation they find themselves in tonight, that being off a SU dog win.  They are 1-10 SU/0-10-1 ATS in this situation this year, plus 1-8 SU/0-8-1 ATS after holding their previous opponent to 85 pts or less.   That's unspeakably bad and remember they lost outright at home to Milwaukee last Tuesday after winning the previous Sunday (as dogs) in Chicago.  Lay the points here w/ Detroit. 

The Pistons got back on track Saturday w/ a 114-101 win here at home over Houston. It was the team's first win since losing PG Brandon Jennings for the season and I think a real confidence builder.  Stan Van Gundy's team is only three games out of the playoff position despite the horrible start and the fact they'd lost four in a row before the Houston win.  Since waiving Josh Smith on December 22nd, Detroit actually has the 8th best overall win percentage in the league.  Every single stat on the offensive end has improved dramatically during this time.  They shot 50 percent against a Rockets team that's usually pretty good defensively. 

The Heat are not only second to last in the league in points scored, but they're also last in rebounding and second to last in assists.  Even though I was glad to take them getting points against a struggling Boston team Sunday afternoon, this is not a great team by any means.  Remember that while Luol Deng could be back here, the team is still w/out Dwyane Wade.  Chris Bosh has not played well of late, scoring just 30 combined points the L2 games on 11 of 37 shooting.  The team has shot just 41.8 percent over the course of its last six games.  Hassan Whiteside has been a revelation, but is not enough to consistently carry this team, especially on the road.  10* Detroit

8* Nebraska (7:30 ET):   Northwestern, who is not good team, has somehow managed to go 6-0 ATS this season on the road.  That includes 4 for 4 against Big 10 opponents, though in three of those games they were getting more points than they are here tonight.  Overall though, the Wildcats have lost seven straight. While all but two of those losses have come by seven points or fewer (three by 2 pts or less!), I feel they are ripe to be blown out tonight. Nebraska is returning home off B2B losses at Michigan and Minnesota, thus will be in an angry mood here.  The Cornhuskers are 9-3 SU in Lincoln this year and the fact N'western is averaging only 58.9 PPG on the road is an ominous sign. 

Nebraska has to be glad to be back home.  They've lost all four Big 10 road games by double digits.  Their last two wins at home were both close, by a total of five points.  In the losses to Michigan and Minnesota, they were held below 45 points both times.  They shot horribly in both games, 37% or below each time. Here at home, the team shoots a more respectable 44.4 percent (67.9 percent).  Leading scorer Terran Petteway took only eight shot attempts at Minnesota, far too few, and he's scored 17 pts total in the two road losses.  This after scoring 32 in the last home game.  A big game from Petteway is what the Huskers need tonight and what I'm expecting.  8* Nebraska

8* Butler (7:00 ET):  Of the two teams here, Butler is the one whose NCAA Tournament hopes are in the better shape.  That's because the Bulldogs have won five of six, including three straight.  They have a top 20 RPI and strength of schedule, plus beat North Carolina on a neutral floor earlier in the year.  Here, they are coming off an overtime win at Marquette Saturday where they were able to overcome poor shooting and a 10-point deficit in the final 4:20.  This is the first time since moving to the Big East that Butler has won three straight league games, but I like their chances at making it four in a row tonight at the expense of struggling St. John's here at home. The Red Storm have won only three of their past nine games, two of those coming against the same team (Providence).  They lost by four, at home, to Butler back on January 3rd.  Lay the points here.

Butler has been dominant at home this season, going 10-1 w/ an average margin of victory of 20.5 points per game.  Visitors are averaging 54.9 PPG. It is somewhat ironic that the Bulldogs' lone home defeat this year came against a Providence team that's lost to St. John's twice.  But the Red Storm have lost 13 of 14 games to teams ranked in the Top 25, including an 0-3 record this season.  Butler was not ranked the first time these two squads matched up (St. John's was #15!), but the difference there was the Bulldogs' Kellen Dunham scoring a season-high 28 points as neither team got a single point from its bench.  When looking at the rankings then and now, what a difference a month makes.

St. John's did beat Providence Saturday, but that was at home and they were fortunate in that the Friars missed 13 of 16 three-point attempts.  While the Red Storm haven't been blown out many times this season, I feel that this team is teetering on the brink right now and just isn't on the same level as Butler.  8* Butler

8* Under Grizzlies/Suns (9:05 ET):  I also like the Under in this matchup.  This may seem odd to you considering that I'm on the Suns and just gone done espousing the virtues of their offense. But I believe they can absolutely win this game w/ it staying Under at the same time. Consider that their last four games have all stayed Under.  Though all four had very high totals, the last three all would have stayed Under even this number.  

Memphis has gone Under in six of its last seven.  This includes all three where the total was 200 points or higher.  They have not allowed more than 94 pts in any of their last six games and in the last two have given up just 69 and 74 respectively.  Obviously, I expect Phoenix to be way above that here and closer to their overall season average, but hitting that average will be difficult to do.  At the same time, the Grizzlies average just 98.7 PPG on the road.   The total for the first matchup between these teams here in Phoenix was all the way down at 192.5 points.  With this number over ten full points here, that's a lot of value. 8* Under Grizzlies/Suns

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET):  I think it's pretty nice that we are able to get points w/ the Suns at home in this situation.  Admittedly, the Grizzlies are playing well right now. They've won six straight and 10 of 11.  But that's driven the asking price up to an unreasonable range, as far as I'm concerned.  Memphis actually hasn't been a road favorite of three points or less all season, which tells me that this is the kind of game where they should be a slight dog, or basically a pick em.  My own personal power rankings rate this game as a toss up, again making the home team a solid value taking the points.  Phoenix recently beat both Washington and Chicago here at home. 

The Suns' 106-87 loss to the Warriors Saturday night doesn't look as bad when you consider how good Golden State is, plus the fact Phoenix was actually leading outright for much of the first half and by as many as 12 points.   Despite playing most of their games at home, the Suns are just 1-5 ATS L6 overall.  After being held way under their season average at Golden State Saturday (shot just 36.3 percent), I would expect a bounce back offensively here from the Suns as they average 107.4 points per game here at home. Saturday was their first time being held under 40 percent shooting in their L24 games.  Despite the recent poor results at the betting window, they did win six of eight games straight up on their last homestand. 

This is also a double revenge spot for Phoenix.  They lost by 11 here at home (were 1.5-pt favorites then) and 12 in Memphis earlier this season.  This will only be Memphis' second road game dating back to mid-January.   I think that's key and like I said earlier, my own personal power rankings suggest that this line is off by about three points.  10* Phoenix

8* Wright State (8:05 ET):   Green Bay is off two tough games, against the teams now tied for first place in the Horizon League, who are one-half game ahead of them.  So a win here by the Phoenix would make it a three-way tie.  But really, they're lucky not to be on a two-game losing streak.  They needed to come back from a halftime deficit vs. Valpo (at home) and were fortunate in that the Crusaders went ice cold in the 2H, scoring just 16 points.  Then on Saturday, they fell behind quickly at Cleveland State (25-8!) and while they did get closer, they never really threatened.  Though Green Bay had a lot of time off between those two games, this is now their second road game in three days.  It's a tough spot to be laying points.

Wright State, has dropped four of five, but two were to the conference co-leaders and the other three on the road.  The Raiders did pull an upset last Monday, in Detroit, which caught my eye as I actually went against them.  Unfortunately, Saturday did not go as well as they lost 84-76 at Oakland.  But that loss came about in overtime after Wright State blew a 10 point lead w/ just under 12 minutes to go.  They certainly didn't play poorly in the extra period either, scoring 14 pts, but unfortunately they gave up 22 (that's a lot!).  Here at home, we should expect the Raiders to be a lot more stout on the defensive end as they allow just 62.1 points per game here.  

This is also a massive revenge spot for Wright State, who was blown out in Green Bay by 24 nearly a month ago.  The spread for that game was "only" 10 points, so there is some value here getting six w/ the home team.  Green Bay has lost two of its four Horizon League road games so far.  In one of their two wins, they covered the spread by only a single point.    Wright State has four losses this year in either OT or by five points or less, so that record could definitely be a bit better.  Take the points.  8* Wright State.

8* Toronto (7:35 ET):  The Raptors have gotten hot again, winning six straight.  Five of those were against non-playoff teams, but Saturday saw them win in Washington, beating the Wizards 120-116 (as five-point dogs) in overtime.  It probably shouldn't have even gone to OT as Toronto led by 16 entering the fourth quarter.  While the team's last two wins have both been close, they were on the road.  Toronto's lofty YTD scoring average actually goes DOWN here at home (104.9), but importantly so too does their points allowed, all the way to 97.4 points per game. The Bucks were blown out by 41 pts in their first visit "North of the Border" this season and while I don't anticipate this matchup being as one-sided, I'm going to lay the points.

Milwaukee has gone 4-1 SU its L5 games, covering every game.  They upset Portland, at home, Saturday.  Perhaps that win doesn't seem as impressive when you consider the Blazers' recent struggles (lost 3 straight). These have been the two best shooting teams in the league over their last five games, but looking at overall season averages, it's Toronto that looks more likely to sustain that level of offensive play.  They are tops in the Eastern Conference in scoring at 106.8 PPG while Milwaukee is more "middle of the pack" at 98.8 PPG.  In addition to posting their largest MOV of the season here in Toronto earlier this year, the Raptors also beat the Bucks in Milwaukee about three weeks ago. 

The Bucks have been one of the league's better bets all season. They currently stand at 32-14-1 ATS YTD, which is the league's second best record (trailing only Atlanta) when factoring in the pointspread.  While Toronto has matched its longest win streak of the season, at the same time Milwaukee has reached a point at which it typically plateaus.  They are 0-2 SU/ATS when on a three-game win streak this season, and 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS in that role the last three seasons.  I just don't see the Bucks, on the road, being able to keep pace w/ a Raptors team that is now fully healthy and playing its best ball of the year. 8* Toronto

full analysis soon

10* Niagara (2:00 ET):  Things haven't been going so well for the Purple Eagles of late (or really all season) as they've lost nine in a row to drop to 3-17 SU on the year.  They're currently tied for last (w/ Marist) in the MAAC, which obviously doesn't sound too encouraging, but consider that three of the team's previous five defeats have come by four points or fewer.  A Quinnipiac squad that is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite to begin with, probably isn't the best candidate to be laying points on the road and it should be pointed out they beat Marist by only one (on the road) laying an almost identical number last month.  Take the points in this one.

Niagara was actually favored in their last game, what looked to be their "most winnable" game in conference play, that being a home date w/ Marist.  But they lost w/ the final score being 65-61 in what was a fairly even game.  The key was the Purple Eagles committing 17 turnovers. One positive, however, is that for a second straight game four players scored in double figures.  This is one of the youngest teams in the nation, but they do seem to be getting better as the season progresses as the recent rash of close losses show. 

Quinnipiac has won all five meetings w/ Niagara since joining the MAAC.  That includes a 3-0 sweep last year, but the game here was a two-point affair decided at the buzzer.  The Bobcats had a three-game win streak snapped Friday w/ a loss at Canisius where they scored only 57 points.  Again, its worrisome to find a team that's averaging just 67.7 PPG, favored on the road.   10* Niagara

8* Miami (1:05 ET):  You don't hear this very often, but perhaps the Heat will be better off away from home?  They have one of the league's worst records at home this year, going 8-15 SU.  Despite not having Dwyane Wade, things started well enough Friday vs. Dallas as Miami jumped out to a 12-point halftime lead (were 9-pt dogs).  Then, the bottom fell out as they were outscored 60-27 in the 2H, including being on the wrong end of a preposterous 37-2 run at one point.  While still in seventh place in the East (despite a 20-26 SU record), there are several indicators (namely a poorer point differential than most of the other teams) that this group simply isn't very good.  But taking points today against the Celtics should be enough. 

One thing that you have to like about the Heat is that they allow the second fewest number of points per game in the league (96.4).  Consistent to their overall performance, they actually allow fewer PPG on the road compared to at home.  That's a far cry from the kind of defense we've seen this year from Boston, who allows 103.5 PPG and even more at home. The one bright spot this year for Miami has been the emergence of Hassan Whiteside.  Since January 11th, he's averaged 11.6 rebounds and a league-best 3.3 blocks per game.  He had 16 pts and 24 rebounds Friday and despite his own 7 of 11 shooting, the team went 33 percent from the field, a season-low.  Expect a natural improvement on the offensive end tonight. 

Ironically, Boston is also coming off its worst shooting game of the season (35.6%), a 93-87 loss here at home to Houston on Friday.  That final score is a tad bit misleading when you consider that the Celtics trailed by as many as 18 points.  When these teams played right before XMas, in Miami, it was the Heat winning 100-84 as a three-point home dog.  Because of the margin of that win, they're getting more respect from the linesmakers here and they should as they've gone 7-1 ATS vs. the Atlantic Division this year.  Boston has only one win by more than one point since January 14th.  8* Miami