10* Oklahoma City (3:05 ET):  Normally, I am of the opinion that the Thunder have been mostly overvalued this season.  This is a team that has been unable to shake New Orleans in the race for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, plus regardless of how good Russell Westbrook may be, not having Kevin Durant is a big deal. Durant has officially been shut down for the remainder of the season, but that does a funny thing to public perception as I now feel OKC is being a tad bit undervalued, at least for this matchup w/ Miami Sunday afternoon.  When I've played against the Thunder in the past, it's usually been on the road, but here at home they're 25-9 SU w/ an average of 106.3 PPG scored. Miami has done an admirable job of getting itself back into playoff contention in the weaker East, but based on this line, they are the team that is being overvalued.

If there was a game that you'd think Durant's absence was going to affect the Thunder, then that would have been Friday against Atlanta. But instead, they responded w/ an impressive 123-115 win and cover just hours after learning Durant wouldn't be back this season.  Russell Westbrook delivered his ninth triple double in the L30 games and you do have to give the entire team credit for becoming just the fourth in NBA history to go from at least nine games under .500 to nine games over .500.  Even more impressive is that they were able to beat the Hawks, who shot 58 percent in the first half.  

Miami is on a 3-0 SU/ATS run, beating Cleveland, Portland and Denver.  But all three of those wins came at home.  While they've been a subpar home team all year, they are below .500 on the road as well and this trip will be particularly tough as the Thunder are 18-2 SU at home since Christmas while averaging a whopping 114.1 PPG.  Also interesting is that this is just the second three-game win streak of the year for the Heat.  The first game when they started the year 3-0.  Since the All-Star Break, Miami has played just five road games and won only two of them, those coming against the Knicks and Magic.   Lay the points.  10* Oklahoma City.

8* Virginia (12:10 ET):  All of a sudden, the East Region is now wide open w/ top seed Villanova bowing out yesterday.  That would seem to make two-seed Virginia now the team to beat, but as I anticipated they are a popular choice to be upset Sunday as they face Tom Izzo and Michigan State.  But what have I been saying this entire Tournament?  Backing the trendy underdog, more often than not, is the wrong way to go.  See UAB and Georgia State yday or teams like Stephen F Austin & Eastern Washington on Thursday. Or the litany of dogs that fell Friday.  The ACC is perfect so far in this Tournament w/ three teams already in the Sweet 16.  Virginia, a top five team most of the year, seems to be undervalued in this spot. Lay the points.

The Cavaliers have lost only three games all year, all to conference foes, by a total of 12 points.  They had a little trouble Friday vs. Belmont, but lost in the non-cover was the fact they scored 79 points, their most in regulation since December 30th.  Defensively, it was not their finest effort, but at no point in the final 10 minutes did they allow the Bruins to score more than three consecutive points.  They also kept them off the free throw line (just six attempts for Belmont).  Remember this team led the nation in scoring defense during the year, giving up just 51.2 points per game.  It's nice that they have Justin Anderson back as well.  He scored 15 points Friday.  An underrated storyline here is that UVA has legit revenge from LY's Sweet 16 where they lost to the Spartans as a top seed. 

I played against Sparty on Friday as they overcame a slow start to (barely) cover against Georgia.  But I expect them to struggle against Virginia's size on the perimeter.  Something else to note w/ MSU is that they are an absolutely dreadful free throw shooting team at 63.1 percent for the season.  Against UGA, they were 11 for 19.   If Virginia can establish its tempo like I think they will, then every possession becomes more critical and missed FT's will haunt the Spartans.  I do not expect Michigan State to have the kind of success in transition here that they did vs. Georgia.   8* Virginia

10* North Carolina (8:40 ET):  Both of these teams ended up having a great degree of difficulty advancing past their second round opponents; Arkansas over Wofford and North Carolina over Harvard.  However, the one difference was that UNC at least was in control for most of its game, leading the Crimson by as many as 16 in the second half before withstanding a furious rally.  For the sake of comparison, Arkansas never led Wofford by more than five points and I thought the Hogs were pretty fortunate to win that game.  The Tar Heels, second in the nation in both rebounding and assists, shot 55.1 percent Thursday and I simply think they're a much better team that Arkansas. They should win this game by a greater margin than what the linesmakers are calling for here.

Only its rival Duke averages more points per game in the paint than North Carolina. That's among all teams in the nation, so it should not have been a surprise to see the Tar Heels outscore Harvard 36-22 in the paint Thursday. The problem was points off turnovers, as Harvard outscored them 29-6 in that department and tonight will obviously be a tougher challenge going against the Razorbacks' press.  But I happen to think that UNC is one of those teams that are better than their record as there have been several games this year, the ACC Tournament Final, among them where the blew a late lead.  I think what happened late in the game Thursday was a simple case of taking their foot off the gas pedal.  They can't afford to do that here, and I don't think they will given the opponent.

I played against Arkansas in their matchup w/ Wofford and was rewarded w/ the cover.  As I said in my analysis for that matchup, the Razorbacks have no prior NCAA Tournament experience (the current roster, that is) and I think they're a little overvalued thanks to a run to the SEC Tournament Championship.  They scored only 56 points against Wofford, not a good sign here when taking on a team that averages over 77 PPG.  The Razorbacks were just 4-6 SU vs. NCAA Tournament teams coming into Thursday, and only one of those wins (Dayton at home) came against a team still standing.  10* North Carolina

10* Houston (8:05 ET):  While Phoenix won for me two nights ago, at home vs. New Orleans, they did so in a 74-72 game as this team continues to have some major offensive issues in the wake of the Goran Dragic trade.  Thursday made it four times in the last six games that the Suns failed to score even 88 pts.  That's going to be a problem as they get set to visit Houston Saturday night considering the Rockets have won three straight, averaging nearly 108 PPG during that stretch, and have topped 100 in all but one of their last eight games.  Further hurting Phoenix's cause here is the fact they allow 105.5 points per game.  Lay the points here as Houston is a strong 7-1 ATS this season as a home fave of 6.5 to 9 pts.

James Harden went for a career high 50 points in the Rockets' last game, a 118-108 win over the Denver Nuggets.  Obviously, it's highly unlikely that the MVP candidate will approach that number again tonight, but considering he has 29 games w/ at least 30 pts this season and seven of 40+, suffice to say we shouldn't worry about any kind of dramatic drop-off.  Note the team did lead by 17 going into the fourth quarter Thursday, before the Nuggets went on a big run w/ Harden on the bench.  The key thing w/ Harden is that when he scores a lot, it's typically not a byproduct of making a lot of "lucky" shots.  Rather, he gets to the free throw line w/ greater frequency than any other player in the league. He made 22 FT's vs. Denver.

As a team, Phoenix has shot just 41.6 percent the last six games while averaging 88 PPG.  That won't even come close to cutting it here.  The Suns are 0-3 SU vs. the Rockets this year, and while two of the games were decided by five points or less, note that Houston had at least 60 points by halftime in every matchup.  Both Brandon Knight and Alex Len are listed as doubtful for tonight, so an already thin Suns roster could be even thinner. I just think that they're a team whose playoff chances are on life support, and they know it. Rather than a strong finish, I look for them to fade down the stretch.  10* Houston

10* Ohio State (5:15 ET):  This seems like a large number for Arizona to lay against a dangerous opponent.  Granted, the second seeded Wildcats (actually my pick to win this region!), did roll in their first game, 93-72 over Texas Southern. But despite not covering the spread there, it seems as if the large margin of victory has directly influenced tonight's number and from where I sit if there's one game where 'Zona could slip up in this region, it's this one.  Ohio State is a team that both Vegas and the advanced metrics tend to love, despite 10 losses.  That's because only one of those 10 defeats came by double digits. Thus, it's somewhat surprising to see that the Buckeyes are just 1-5 ATS as dogs this year. But I look for that to change here and I'm taking the points. 

While Arizona rolled to victory Thursday, Ohio State needed overtime to prevail in a back and forth game over VCU, the Atlantic 10 Tournament champs.  HC Thad Matta basically went w/ just six players, but while depth is a greater concern for the Buckeyes than it is for the Wildcats, look for Matta counteract that w/ a zone defense that worked well in the second half vs. VCU. The benefit of the zone is two-fold; (1) it slows the game down and (2) theoretically it should limit the amount of fouling by depth shy OSU.   For the game, they held VCU to just 38.1 percent shooting. Offensively, freshman sensation D'Angelo Russell scored 28 pts, the third most ever by a freshman in a NCAA Tournament game.  Russell was both great inside and outside, but overall the team dominated points in the paint (40-22), not a surprise since they led the Big 10 in points in the paint (33.6 per game) during the regular season.  Look for them to exploit that advantage here. 

Arizona is a strong rebounding team due to the fact they will typically pack the paint on defense and allow the opposition to take three-pointers.  Thus, this is somewhat of a strength on strength matchup w/ Ohio State ranking 10th in the country in field goal percentage (48.6).  The Buckeyes were also 6 for 15 from three-point range Thursday. I think they'll make enough shots to at least stay within the number and I do give them a shot at the outright upset.  10* Ohio State

8* UCLA (12:10 ET):  Even as parity has become more rampant in the NCAA Tournament, 14 seeds rarely advance. So seeing two of them win Thursday, back-to-back, was pretty shocking. One was UAB, a team that had last won outside of Birmingham back on January 31st. The Blazers beat Iowa State and did so in pretty stunning fashion, grabbing 19 offensive rebounds and holding the Cyclones well below their season average in scoring. Those factors helped to alleviate the fact UAB shot only 34.8 percent from the field themselves, the worst number ever in a win by a 14 or 15 seed in the history of this tournament.  What you need to understand is that this team is simply not very good; they don't rank inside the top 100 in either offensive or defensive efficiency. This is where their run ends.  Lay the points.

At least one 14-seed has now won in three consecutive tournaments, making it 20 all-time wins in the Big Dance from that line.  But one win is usually all they get.  Only two times has a 14-seed ever gone on to make the Sweet 16 and they are 0-4 SU all-time vs. 11 seeds w/ every win coming by at least 13 points. Last year saw Mercer get crushed by Tennessee in an identical spot, losing by 20.  One could certainly make the case the UCLA did not deserve to make this tournament and that they were fortunate (goaltending call) to beat SMU.  But the Bruins' run of good fortune continues here, drawing a 14-seed in the Round of 32, one that did not even win the regular season title in its own conference. In fact, UAB finished fifth in Conference USA.

UCLA led the Pac 12 in rebounding (38 per game) thanks in large part to Kevin Looney's 9.2 per game, which ranked third nationally.  On the outside, they have Bryce Alford (coach's son), who made 9 of 11 three-pointers against SMU.  UCLA's overall resume can be called into question, but let's face it; they hail from a much tougher conference (Pac 12 now 4-0 in tournament) and yet are somehow still laying only a small number.  UAB is the third youngest team in the entire country and they are easily the weakest team left standing in the field.  Other than Arizona, UCLA's only two losses since the start of February were each by two points.  They are 10-3 ATS L13 games overall.  A favorable draw makes them an unlikely entrant to the Sweet 16 and they should win big here.  8* UCLA

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET):  I actually have quite the amount of respect for the Celtics, who currently occupy the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and are only being outscored by less than one point per game.  So you might be surprised to see me willing to lay this big of a number against them, especially w/ a Spurs team that lost to the Knicks earlier in the week.  But note that San Antonio has not been beaten in regulation all month and they actually impressed me quite a bit in bouncing back w/ a 114-103 win Wednesday at Milwaukee.  Finally healthy, I look for the defending champs to roll through the remainder of the regular season, including this game right here. Lay the points.

At home, San Antonio is averaging an impressive 106.9 PPG.  Though influenced by a pair of games that went to OT, they're average points per game over their last five contests is 115.8.  But even going back 10 games, to the start of this 8-2 SU stretch, they've topped 100 in every game and 110 seven different times.  So Greg Popovich's team does figure to "get theirs" tonight at home against a Celtics defense which allows 103.3 PPG on the road, one of the worst numbers in the entire league.  The Spurs scored 66 pts in the second half against Milwaukee Weds night.   

The Celtics have covered six straight, but are off their first loss during that time as they were beaten 122-118 by Oklahoma City on Wednesday.   That game did not go into overtime and in fact the Thunder had a double digit lead heading into the fourth quarter.  The game wouldn't have ended up as close had it not been for OKC allowing 39 pts in the fourth quarter.  Over the last three seasons, Boston is 0-5 SU vs. San Antonio and they were crushed earlier this year, at home, 111-89.  The Spurs were 7.5-point road favorites in that one, so you can see a little value on them here at home against a Celtics team that's just 12-21 SU on the road.  10* San Antonio

10* Oklahoma State (6:50 ET):  I handicapped this matchup the same way I did another 8-9 game (Cincinnati-Purdue) in that one side is receiving a lopsided amount of action (in this case Oregon), which makes no sense.  Going against the public and taking Cincinnati worked out yday (was close!), so I'll follow suit here and take the dog.  Oklahoma State is left to carry the mantle for a wounded Big 12, a conference whose rep took a serious hit Thursday, and don't think for a second that won't be motivating factor here for the Pokes.  I suppose that people are looking at the Cowboys' finish to the regular season (now 1-6 SU/ATS L7), but having a "recency bias" can be a dangerous method for evaluating teams this time of year. Oregon had won seven in a row, but was also destroyed in its last game, 80-52 by Arizona. Look for the lower seed to surprise here.

This is a game where the line has moved a couple points, creating a little bit of value on the other side.  The public really took a bath in Thursday's games, meaning the sides that took the heaviest action either lost or failed to cover.  Here, Oregon is drawing an unusually large amount of action.  Again, I think that has a lot to do w/ the respective ways each team finished.  Plus, the Big 12's performance yday probably isn't leading to any extra OSU support.  But they are the better defensive team here, by a wide margin, as they hold opponents to just 62.3 points per game.  Oregon allows 76.3 PPG away from Eugene and was torched by Arizona, who shot 54.5 percent, in the Pac 12 Tournament Final.  Take note that the Ducks are 2-6 ATS following a loss by 20+ points. 

Meanwhile, I think Oklahoma State should bounce back from its disappointing performance in the Big 12 Tourney vs. Oklahoma as they are 6-1-1 ATS after scoring 50 pts or less the previous game.  They also are the more experienced team here and should have the edge in rebounding.  Not that this sounds as impressive as it would have 48 hours ago, but the Cowboys did sweep both Baylor and Texas in the regular season.  They also hold a win over Kansas.  This is also a revenge spot for the OSU coaching staff, who remembers being upset by Oregon in the Tournament (5-12 matchup) two years ago.  10* Oklahoma State

8* Valparaiso (4:40 ET):   I can't remember too many times that a 4-seed was favored by this little of a number, but Maryland is clearly overseeded and their 27-6 SU record a mirage.  I went against them the last time we saw them, which was the Big 10 semis, a 62-58 loss to Michigan State. That loss could definitely be seen as a comeuppance given that during the regular season the Terps went a fortunate 8-0 SU in games decided by five points or less. So, that all being said, combined w/ the fact we're due to see a 4-seed lose, has me on the dog here as Valparaiso is no slouch.  The Crusaders come into the Tournament at 28-5 SU and their only three losses in Horizon League play were by either three pts or less  or in OT.  Take the points.

In six of last seven years, at least one 14-seed has advanced past the Round of 64.  Looking at this year's crop, I'd say Valpo is certainly the most likely.  They defend well (top 30 in defensive efficiency), holding teams to just 59.3 points per game and they can rebound.  The most pts they've allowed in the L7 games is 63.   As for the boards, there were only two games all season where the Crusaders were outrebounded. This is key in going against a Maryland team that ranks just 241st in the country, grabbing only 29.1 percent of available offensive rebounds.  Opponents make just 42.1 percent of two-point attempts against Valpo, and given the pace they play at, more often than not, that's enough to get the job done. Both Tevonn Walker and Darien Walker are probable to play Friday. 

Maryland is just 6-11 ATS as a favorite this year, which shouldn't be a surprise given all the close wins.   This is a guard-oriented team and this will be a rare instance where the underdog has the size advantage.  The Terps really don't have a great post player.  Valparaiso has a senior power forward in Alec Peters, who also hits 46 percent from three-point range, which could be key against a team that doesn't defend the three-point line well.  This is Maryland's first NCAA Tournament appearance under HC Mark Turgeon and their first overall since 2010.  Coming into the tourney, they were the high seed I felt most likely to be upset in the Round of 64.  8* Valparaiso

10* Georgia (12:40 ET):  Tom Izzo' March reputation obviously precedes itself, but this year's edition of Michigan State basketball is not as strong, which is evident by the fact Sparty checks in as only a 7-seed.  Somewhat predictably, they are drawing lopsided action for this matchup w/ 10-seed Georgia and I think there's now some solid value on the dog here. More often than not this year, the Spartans came out on the wrong end of close games and that's coming from someone who had them in the Big 10 semis over Maryland.  They followed that win up w/ an excruciating overtime loss to Wisconsin, which as I said has been "par for the course" this year in East Lansing as the team has eight losses either in OT or by 5 pts or less. Georgia went 9-3 ATS taking points this year and is a live dog in this spot. 

Don't be too fooled by UGA's 60-49 loss in the SEC semifinal to Arkansas.  With a NCAA Tournament berth locked up, they decided to rest second leading scorer Kenny Gaines (11.6 PPG).   For the game, the team shot just 32.7 percent from the field, their second lowest percentage all season.   And it wasn't like they were taking an abundance of jumpers.  They were a ghastly 12 for 35 inside the paint, where they were actually outscored 16-3 in second chance pts despite having just one less rebound.   The Bulldogs, who were 3rd best in the SEC from the FT line in the regular season, missed 10 of 23 attempts as well.  Gaines is probable to return here, which would be a big lift on both ends of the floor.  Georgia is in the top 20 nationally in field goal percentage defense at 38.7%.  

Something else that caught my eye in handicapping this game is that Georgia set a school record w/ six "true" road wins in SEC play.  They went 2-0 ATS vs. Kentucky.  So they will not be intimidated in the least here.  All five starters average double figures in scoring.   Defensively, they do a good job keeping teams out of the paint w/ an aggressive man to man.  These teams are a lot more even then they're being perceived by the public, so taking the points is the way to go.  10* Georgia.

10* Over New Mexico State/Kansas (12:15 ET):  This line seems pretty low for a 2-15 matchup, no?  But given what we saw Thursday, who am I to make that determination?  New Mexico State is a non-board team, from the WAC, a conference basically full of refugee programs, many of whom recently transitioned to D-I.  So its tough to gather much from the Aggies' regular season.  All four of their games that have been lined over the past three seasons have gone Under.  But they did score 80 points in the tournament final against Seattle.  The fact they allow just 59.3 PPG obviously means little when facing a Kansas team that can force NMSU to play at its pace, so w/ this being a lower than typical total for the Jayhawks, I like the Over here.

As they always do, KU won the Big 12 regular season championship.  However, they did lose the tournament final to Iowa State.  They did not shoot the ball well from three-point range the last four games (8 for 51), but all that means is they're probably due for a big game here (they're 37.5% for the year).  There were other reasons for their late season struggles, namely injuries to both Perry Ellis and Landen Lucas, both of whom are probable to play Friday.  Also, it should be pointed out that without those two they blew a 17-point lead Saturday vs. Iowa State.   For the year, they average over 71 points per game.  While the Under was 16-15 in all games w/ a total this year for the Jayhawks, only one total in Big 12 play was lower than this one.  It was a game at Kansas State that went Over.  

One advantage New Mexico State has in this matchup is size, believe it or not.  They have four players on the roster at 6-8 or taller.  As a result, they shoot the ball well (46.5% from the field).  They have six players that average at least eight points per game.  They also get to the free throw line quite a bit and when they do, they usually convert.  Every starter shoots at least 70 percent from the charity stripe.  They scored 70 points 17 different times during the year.   Look for plenty of points in this one.  10* Over New Mexico State/Kansas

8* Georgetown (9:57 ET):  Again, I'll be going against the trendy underdog pick here, as not only is the public all over 13-seed Eastern Washington here plus the points, but an astounding 86% of all ML wagers are also on the underdog Eagles.  I'll concede the Georgetown does not have a sterling NCAA track record under John Thompson III, but what the public is clearly missing here is that EWU is a horrible team defensively, the second worst in the entire field in fact (only Lafayette is worse)!  They rank 282nd nationally in terms of defensive efficiency, which is a far cry from the Hoyas' #25 ranking in that same department.  The fact that the Eagles HC Jim Hayford went on a national radio show and guaranteed a victory does his team no favors in my opinion. Georgetown should be highly motivated to erase the ghosts of tournaments past. 

I get that Thompson's G'town teams are 1-4 SU in the NCAA Tournament w/ three double digit losses to teams seeded 10 or lower.   I expect the Hoyas to use their size to their advantage here and exploit a EWU defense which gives up a ghastly 73.6 PPG (342nd nationally) on 44.9 percent shooting.  Away from home, both numbers predictably go up.  Going up against a three-guard lineup, the Hoyas should be able to score plenty of points in the paint here.  Only four of this team's losses came by more than six points all year.  You will not find a bigger strength of schedule differential in this tournament as Georgetown played the 5th toughest schedule nationally while Eastern Washington played the 252nd toughest schedule. 

Eastern Washington does have the nation's leading scorer in Tyler Harvey (22.9 PPG) and an ability to make a lot of three pointers.   But I keep coming back to the defensive ineptitude, which is pretty striking.  I'd like to see Georgetown take advantage of the fact that EWU allows its opponents to shoot 39 percent from behind the arc.  Thirteen times this season the Eagles allowed 80 or more points. They also have not played a tournament team since November.  This is reminiscent of the Utah-Stephen F Austin matchup.   8* Georgetown

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET):  For the Suns, this game probably represents a last gasp to get back into playoff contention as they are currently three games back of Oklahoma City for the eighth and final spot in the West.  New Orleans, who has also been on the playoff fringes all season long, is just one-half game back of the Thunder.  But while the Pelicans have clearly been the better team in the second half, this situation favors Phoenix, who has been off since Sunday and is at home.  New Orleans has a losing road record on the season (14-18 SU) and is still w/o both Jrue Holliday and Ryan Anderson.  Meanwhile, the time off has allowed Phoenix to get healthier as both Alex Len and Brandon Knight could be making returns here. 

The Suns are off a 102-89 win over the Knicks that was actually a lot closer than the final score indicates.  But the bottom line is that they are 10-2 ATS this season when coming off a double digit win.  Offense has been real feast or famine this month for the 4th highest scoring team in the league; four times they've been above 100 pts, three others they've been below 90.  Here at home, Phoenix averages over 105 points per game.  

The Pelicans are off an 85-84 win over Milwaukee, at home, Tuesday night.  They may get caught peeking ahead to Golden State tomorrow night.  They've failed to cover in two straight and five of their last eight.   Against the Bucks, they were held to 15 points or less in two of the four quarters, including just 10 in the second quarter!  As a team, New Orleans shot just 34.9 percent from the field and right now there is an undue burden being placed on Anthony Davis.  10* Phoenix

10* Wofford (9:50 ET):  Now here's a 5-12 matchup where it seems the possibility of an upset isn't getting as much love as one might think it should.  This isn't so much a 'play on' Wofford, but rather a 'play against' Arkansas, who I happen to think is the weakest of the 5-seeds in the field of 68.   The Hogs are probably feeling pretty full of themselves right now after a run to the SEC Tourney Final where they were ousted by Kentucky and that could work against them here.  Wofford, who allows fewer points per game while shooting it better from three-point range (a great combo of edges to own in the NCAA Tournament!), lost only six times this season (two of those at Duke and at WVU) and just once since Jan 15th (won 15 of 16).  Take the points and I think the outright upset is a distinct possibility.

I think Wofford actually matches up very well here.  Arkansas doesn't do a particularly great job at defending the three-point line and the Terriers make 37.6 percent of their attempts from behind the arc.  Also, Wofford should be fresh.  The SoCon Tournament was one of the first to conclude w/ the top seeded Terriers qualifying ten days ago.  Meanwhile, the Razorbacks just played three games in three days, all after Wofford qualified.   The key to Arkansas' game is their press, as they like to speed the game up, but the problem is Wofford takes good care of the basketball w/ just 11 TO's per game.  The Terriers have a number of good ball handlers that should be able to deal w/ the Hogs' press.

Wofford only gives up 59.8 PPG.  I realize that they did not play a very tough schedule during the regular season, but they did win @ NC State, holding the Wolfpack to only 54 points.   They also beat Iona, regular season champs in the MAAC, by double digits.  That's significant because it was a common opponent between them and Arkansas.  The Razorbacks have failed to cover four in a row when favored by more than seven points, including an outright loss to LSU in the regular season finale.  This will be their first NCAA Tournament appearance since '08, so they are lacking in experience as well.  10* Wofford

8* Utah (7:27 ET):  This has become a very trendy upset pick by virtue of being a 5-12 matchup, but the problem for upstart Stephen F. Austin (who I certainly respect) is that they are drawing the top 5 seed of the bunch.  In fact, one could make the argument that this is the best 5-seed vs. the best 12-seed.  But while the Lumberjacks, winners LY as a 12-seed, were probably seeded properly, Utah was drastically underseeded, IMO.  This Utes team may have played just .500 ball over its L8 games, but still owns an outstanding YTD point differential (+15.2 PPG) thanks to a string of blowout victories.  This is a large step up in class for SFA, champions of the Southland, who rank outside of the top 100 nationally in terms of defensive efficiency.  For the sake of comparison, Utah is one of just six teams in the country to rank in the top 20 in both offensive & defensive efficiency.  Lay the points.

Public underdogs are usually the only underdogs I'm not fond of taking.  The NCAA Tournament has the unique distinction of being the one event where the typically favorite backing public is willing to take the points.  This is because everyone fills out a bracket and if you're inclined to pick a dog to win SU, you're likely to bet them ATS.  But when the percentages get this lopsided (as they are here in favor of SFA), I get leery.  Consider that the Lumberjacks have not played a NCAA Tournament team since a three-game stretch back in November, all of those resulting in losses.  While they played Northern Iowa tough (game went to OT), they were beaten by double digits by both Xavier and Baylor. 

The committee did SFA no favors here w/ a bad matchup.  The Lumberjacks live off forcing turnovers, but w/ senior PG Delon Wright running the point, Utah doesn't give the ball away much.  SFA also shoots (and makes) a lot of three-pointers, but the problem there is the Utes allow just 28.3 percent shooting from behind the arc.  Perhaps the big key here though is Utah's size advantage.  SFA doesn't have a player in its starting lineup over 6'6", which is going to be a problem here.  Utah played a much tougher schedule, is 33-17 ATS its L50 as a favorite and 20-7 ATS vs. non-conference teams.   8* Utah

10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET):  For an 8-9 matchup, the betting percentages (currently heavily in favor of Purdue) sure seem awfully one-sided.  I'm not exactly sure why the public is so heavily leaning towards the lower seed here, but I'll take advantage as Cincinnati's Top 20 defense (55.3 PPG allowed) should have them advance.  Stylistically, these teams are pretty similar.  Their respective seasons also played out in like fashion.  Purdue is a team that lost early on to the likes of North Florida, Vanderbilt & Gardner Webb.  Cincinnati lost its head coach, but didn't skip a beat.  With more traits (defense, rebounding) of teams that typically advance in this event, the Bearcats are the play here. 

Perhaps it's Purdue's 20-9 ATS record that has so many flocking to their bandwagon?   At one point, during the heart of the Big 10 schedule, they at one point covered seven consecutive games.  Maybe its the fact they're from the stronger conference that has bettors on them as well?  But the Boilermakers didn't exactly finish the year strong.  They've lost three of their last five games, both wins coming by only five points, and they got hammered by Wisconsin in the Conference Tourney, losing by 20.  They made only six field goals in the second half in that loss and could run into similar issues here against a stout Cincy defense.  All season long, the Boilermakers beat just two Tournament teams outside of West Lafayette.  

Both teams rebound the ball well, so this game could simply come down to "who makes shots."  I have less faith in Purdue to do that.  This is because Cincinnati is 18th nationally in terms of defensive efficiency, holding teams to just 92.9 points per 100 possessions.  Purdue is just 70th in that department.  The key difference between the teams defensively lies in the Bearcats' ability to not foul as much.  The Boilermakers tend to send their opponents to the free throw line a lot.  Getting back to the ability to make shots, Cincinnati is at 45.3% for the year, which is actually the best single season percentage of the Mick Cronin era.  The slow pace at which they play will frustrate Purdue.  Cincy's last three losses were by a total of six points and before bowing out to a hot UConn team in the American Tourney they had won and covered five straight. 10* Cincinnati.

8* Northeastern (12:15 ET):  Based off their winning the ACC Tournament, Notre Dame is getting a LOT of love right now across the country.  Throw in the fact that the Fighting Irish are a public team to begin with, and you have the classic "overvalued spot" as the 3-seed opens Thursday tourney play w/ a matchup against Northeastern, champions of the CAA.  The Colonial is no longer what it once was, in the wake of VCU and George Mason bolting for greener pastures, but these Huskies are a dangerous DD dog considering the way they shoot the ball from all ranges.  Let us not forget that Notre Dame isn't exactly a strong defensive team either; they rank a pretty woeful 112th nationally in terms of defensive efficiency. Therefore, I'll be taking the points here in what will be the Tournament's first legit upset scare.

Northeastern shoots 52.9 percent from 2-point range, 38.8 percent from 3-point range and 72.4 percent as a team from the FT line.  I like those numbers, especially when matched up w/ a team coming off a long tourney run that also gave up 107 pts per 100 possessions in conference play.  For the sake of comparison, N'eastern won its conference tournament a full five days prior to Notre Dame winning theirs.  Now, the Huskies obviously didn't learn who they'd be playing until Sunday, but still, theoretically they should be the fresher team here.  This is a team that was not blown out much all year.  Only three times did they lose a game by double digits and two of those were very early in the season.  The other was actually a game that went to overtime!  They come in w/ a 6-4 ATS record as underdogs, winning five times straight up. 

Notre Dame is formidable offensively.  But teams that have the drastic offensive-defensive splits they do tend not to be long for this tournament.  Remember that the Fighting Irish lost at home to Syracuse last month.  They also lost to Duke - by 30 - giving up 90 points.  Part of the cause for the bad defensive numbers is that the Irish don't rebound well nor do they force many turnovers. N'eastern has five players that can shoot and while Florida State was one of the worst teams in the ACC, the Huskies did beat them, so they won't be intimidated for this Round of 64 matchup.  Take the points.  8* Northeastern.

10* Chicago (8:05 ET):  Predictably, Indiana has come back down to Earth as following a seven-game win streak, they've dropped B2B games.  They were favored in both, at home, losing to Boston and Toronto.  Tonight, they visit a Central Division rival that's also coming off B2B losses, and one that will be playing w/ revenge.  Chicago has lost five of six overall, starting with a setback at the hands of the Pacers (on the road) back on March 6th.  After a bad loss in Charlotte on Friday, the Bulls came up just short in a game effort Sunday at Oklahoma City.  Having had the last two days off, I expect a major response from a team still looking for a top two seed in the Eastern Conference. Lay the short number.

The last time these teams played, it was a tough spot for the Bulls.  They had just knocked off the Thunder, short-handed as they remain now, the night before in a national TV game.  Indiana was rested and playing its fourth consecutive home game.  Chicago shot just 36 percent for the game, losing 98-84 as 5.5-point dogs, but clearly we should expect better tonight as they average 101.9 PPG here at the United Center this season. This will only be Indiana's second road game since Feb 24th, which somewhat explains the recent roll that they've been on.  The one road game that they did play during the seven-game win streak was against the lowly Knicks.

In fact, this will also be the first time since 2.24 that the Pacers have been an underdog.  They're still only 12-20 SU away from home this year, and are 9-24 SU as dogs, in any setting.  Monday night vs. Toronto, they allowed 117 points to the Raptors, and were dominated on the boards.  It obviously did not help that they also missed 17 of 19 three-point attempts.  Remember that this is still one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league.  They did a nice job of getting themselves back into playoff contention, but right now I feel they're overvalued.  10* Chicago

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET):  After a pretty embarrassing effort in Monday's 106-92 loss at Miami (was 2nd game of back to backs), the Cavs should bounce back here as they finally are back home and facing a substantially inferior opponent.  They have not lost at Quicken Loans Arena in some time now (January 6th, to be exact), winning 13 in a row on their home floor and done so in pretty convincing fashion. They've outscored visiting teams by 15.7 PPG during the streak and while Tuesday was bad, this team has won 12 of 15 overall (most of those games on the road) and has been the NBA's best team since January 15th. Meanwhile, I put little stock into Brooklyn's B2B victories as they came at the expense of Philadelphia and Minnesota. 

These teams have not played since December, back before Cleveland took off.  Still though, the Cavs have won both prior meetings, one in convincing fashion at Brooklyn and the other was a closer result here at home.  But as described above, the Cavs have clearly regained their "home mojo" and it's looking like Kevin Love will be back on the floor tonight.  Though he's somewhat struggled in playing the "Chris Bosh role," Love is still averaging 16.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game.   Though his numbers had tailed off recently, his return will be welcomed by an offense that topped 120 pts in three straight games prior to Tuesday's loss.

Meanwhile, Brooklyn averages only 96.6 PPG and is due for some regression after matching a season-high w/ 122 pts Monday.  They shot 57.8% from the field against Minnesota, something I can't see being duplicated here & off a DD win, the team is just 3-7 ATS this season.  I have continued to rate the Nets among the bottom eight teams in the league all season long and don't see that changing moving forward as they should be resigned to a non-playoff fate by now while Cleveland is trying to lock down the #2 seed in the Conference.  8* Cleveland

10* North Florida (6:40 ET):  Both NCAA Tournament underdogs won their games outright yday, meaning we're likely to see a response from the chalk today. In Tuesday's 16 vs. 16 seed matchup, the spread was too high for a matchup of this importance, but that's not the case for today's version and the difference between the two teams may in fact be greater! Robert Morris finished second in NEC during the regular season and had to pull off an upset of the top seed (St. Francis NY) in the tournament final (a "true" road game, by the way) just to get here.  Meanwhile, North Florida was the best team all year in a watered down Atlantic Sun and proved it w/ a win and cover in a double revenge spot vs. USC Upstate in the Tourney Final.  Here, they are laying just a small number and I like them to advance fairly easily. 

The last two years have seen the A-Sun make a strong accounting for itself, first w/ Florida Gulf Coast, then w/ Mercer last year.  North Florida isn't as strong as either of those two teams, but the Ospreys do sport a winning record away from home and average 75.7 PPG.  This is a team that shoots the ball well, at 46.9% overall including 39.1% from three-point range w/ seven players shooting at least 35 percent from behind the arc.  They've also lost only twice since January 2nd, both times to USC Upstate.  They've won eight straight, seven times by double digits, and hold a road win over Purdue. UNF tested itself early w/ 14 of its first 17 games being contested off-campus.  I thought they deserved to be guaranteed a spot in the Round of 64, quite honestly. 

The Northeast Conference does not have a strong history in the NCAA Tournament and that includes a loss by LY's champ Mt. St. Mary's in the "First Four."  The Colonials, who do not do a particularly good job rebounding, suffered 14 losses against a schedule that did not rank among the 200 most difficult in the country.  So that's not a good sign.  They have won six in a row, but only the Tournament Final was contested in foreign territory.  Look for three-point shooting to be the difference maker in this one as a RMU squad that has been "playing above itself" for awhile, comes back down to Earth.  10* North Florida

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  Charlotte put forth a truly shameful effort last night for a team in playoff contention, losing at Utah by a score of 94-66.  Incredibly, it was the second time in the past four games that the Hornets failed to top 70 points.  They actually trailed by as many as 39.  Things will get no easier here as they draw an angry Clippers team that's still smarting from a home loss (to Houston) on national TV Sunday afternoon.  As you know, Blake Griffin is now back for the Clips and while that didn't make a difference in the last game, it should here against a far lesser opponent.  LA is already outscoring teams by roughly nine points per game here at home this season, so laying a big number is not a concern.

Something that surprises me is that the Clippers have failed to break 100 pts in five of the past six games. In a sense, that's somewhat misleading as they've scored 98 or 99 three times.  But still this is a team that comes in averaging 106 per game. Charlotte, meanwhile, finds itself at the opposite end of the spectrum, averaging just 94.7.  So, I just don't see them having the "horses" to compete.  Especially with the defense having allowed the previous two opponents to make over 30 three-pointers on better than 53 percent shooting from behind the arc.  Last night could have been even uglier had the Jazz, who made 14 three-pointers through three quarters, not basically taken mercy in the final 12 minutes. 

The Clippers destroyed Charlotte earlier in the year, on the road, by a score of 113-92.  They shot well (51.1%) from the field while the Hornets were a horrific 2 for 20 from three-point range.  Given the recent numbers on both ends of the floor for Charlotte, a similar final here would not surprise me in the least.  I think that in terms of won-loss record, LA has been one of the more underachieving teams as they still have a top three point differential in the league, and that's a better predictor of future success more so than a simple WL record.  8* LA Clippers

10* BYU (9:10 ET):  BYU has started to garner some real support as a potential "darkhorse" that can pull some upsets in this year's Tournament.  But first they must take care of business in this "First Four" matchup w/ Ole Miss.  Given how the respective teams come into the "Big Dance," I think a Cougars' win and cover is a reasonable expectation here.  Before losing in the WCC Tournament Final (to Gonzaga), the Cougars had won eight straight games, the most important of which was a home victory over the Zags in the regular season finale.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss was "one and done" in the SEC Tournament and ended up losing five of its final eight games, while going 2-6 ATS.  I think we'll see BYU prove here that they were probably not deserving of a "play-in game" status.  Lay the short number.

Led by the school's all-time leading scorer (Tyler Haws), Brigham Young is #2 in the country in points per game w/ 83.6.   The fast pace at which they play is going to be a difficult matchup for a defensively challenged Rebels squad.  In its regular season finale, at home, Ole Miss gave up 86 points to Vanderbilt - an ominous sign here to say the least.  Also, don't forget about Kyle Collinsworth, who turned in SIX triple doubles during the regular season (led the nation).  His absence really hurt the team in LY's brief NCAA Tournament appearance, so I look for him to be a big difference-maker tonight.   Down the stretch, BYU's defense did improve as they allowed more than 70 pts just one time during the eight-game win streak.

Over the course of its last eight games, Ole Miss lost outright four separate times as a favorite, which is not a good sign.  The one real strength this team has comes at the free throw line, but is somewhat negated by the fact they also send their opponents to charity stripe a bunch. While no team came closer to beating Kentucky during the regular season, the Rebels also lost outright to Charleston Southern in the season opener.  Having lost four of their last five, it's easy to see why so many are siding w/ the trendy BYU pick here and I cannot disagree given the fact Ole Miss has shot just 38.5% those L5 games.  10* BYU

10* Detroit (7:35 ET):  The Pistons have basically played their way out of playoff contention w/ 10 straight losses, however, most of them have been relatively close.  Therefore, I actually think they're a pretty solid value as a home dog tonight hosting a Memphis team that comes in w/o rest after winning at home against Denver last night.  The Grizzlies, who failed to cover as large favorites yesterday, have been struggling themselves as of late, going just .500 over the L12 games.  They're 3-9 ATS during that stretch as well, so laying points on the road is not ideal for them right now.  I'll concede that right now they have a lot more to play for than Detroit, but I'd say the Pistons are also "overdue" for a win.  Take the points.

Only two of the losses during the Pistons' current streak have been by ten or more points.  So they've generally been competitive in defeat.  A four-game swing out West ended w/ a three-point loss to the Jazz on Saturday.  While they've struggled to score basically all season, this is a team that's only being outscored by two points per game.  When taking on winning teams, the Pistons have actually fended quite well for themselves, going 8-4 ATS L12.  With the two days off, it looks like Andre Drummond (concussion) will be back in the lineup.  This will only be the Pistons' second home game this month, so I do expect somewhat of an inspired effort as obviously no team wants to go on losing every time out.  They do play at Philadelphia tomorrow night, but I think that the Grizzlies are more likely to have their attention.

Memphis has failed to score more than 100 pts six times in its last seven games, so again, this is not an ideal candidate for the road favorite role.  They are off B2B wins, but both were at home.  They lost three of four on their last road trip as turnovers have started to become a concern as well.  Last night, they gave the ball away 20 times and are averaging 19.8 TO's per game their last four, mainly due to the absence of PG Mike Conley, who may very well miss this game as well.  The Grizzlies caught a break last night when Kenneth Faried didn't suit up for Denver; they're also just 9-20 ATS vs. teams w/ a losing record (3-9 ATS L12).  10* Detroit.

8* Rhode Island (7:00 ET):  In last year's NIT, only one team seeded 3rd or higher lost its opening round game.  That would be St. John's, who was actually a 1-seed, to Robert Morris. You have to remember that until their own version of the "Final Four," all NIT games are played at campus sites.   That's a huge advantage here for Rhode Island, who went 13-2 SU here at home during the regular season.  The two losses came by a combined six points and were to VCU and Davidson, the top two teams in the A-10.  The opponent here is Iona, regular season champs of the MAAC, who I feel are going to have a hard time getting over the disappointment of losing in their conference tournament final.  Lay the points.

Another key edge for Rhode Island in this matchup lies on the defensive end of the floor.  According to the KenPom ratings, the Rams are one of the ten most efficient teams in the entire country defensively.  Meanwhile, Iona is a ghastly 233rd.  Teams have scored an average of just 59.3 points per game against Rhode Island this season, barely shooting over 40 percent.  The Rams also held the opposition to just 29% three-point shooting.  Iona, meanwhile, gives up 72.8 PPG on the season.  They allowed 70+ in every MAAC Tournament game.  But there undoing against Manhattan last week was poor three-point shooting (5 for 22). The Gaels are a team that lives and dies w/ its shooting from behind the arc. 

Conference tournament failure aside for a moment, Iona was also a weak finisher against the pointspread down the home stretch.  They enter the NIT having gone just 1-6 against the spread their last seven games and though their record is impressive, it wasn't like they completely dominated the MAAC during the regular season as over half their wins came by four points or less or in OT.   Granted, they weren't blown out often either, but they did lose by double digits at both Wofford and Arkansas, the only two NCAA Tournament foes they played during the non-conference portion of the schedule.  The home team should win big here.  8* Rhode Island

8* Charlotte (9:05 ET):  Although most are probably unaware, Utah has been a pretty good team for some time now.  It goes well beyond this current 8-1 SU run of theirs during which they have held opponents to an impressive average of just 83.9 points per game as they are 12-3 SU L15 and actually a .500 ball club since the start of December. But all that being said, they're still seven games under .500 for the season and not going to make the playoffs. Despite the recent success, I still wouldn't be comfortable laying points w/ this team, especially considering they've failed to cover their last three times in that role. The most recent was Saturday vs. Detroit when they won by just three, laying eight. Take the points here. 

Charlotte, despite having an inferior record to Utah, is still very alive in the postseason chase in the weaker Eastern Conference.  Thanks to a 101-91 home victory over Chicago Friday, they are now in eighth place by themselves, one-half game ahead of both Miami and Boston.  Thus, one could easily make the argument that this game carries far greater significance to the Hornets.  Defense was the calling card for this team in LY's run to the playoffs and while this year's numbers have not been as strong overall, they did just hold the Bulls to only 31 pts in the second half Friday on 25.6% shooting.  They also dominated on the glass w/ a 55-36 rebounding edge.

Though it was a long time ago at this point, Charlotte did dominate the season's first matchup vs. Utah, winning 104-86 as 3.5-point home favorites.  While 2-9 SU on the road against the West, they've largely been competitive in these non-conference affairs, only getting outscored by an average of 4.2 PPG. I think that the Jazz have been playing a little "above themselves" recently and are due to regress a bit.  Also, their last three wins when favored have come by an average of less than five points per game.  8* Charlotte

10* Dallas (8:35 ET):  It seems as if almost every matchup of Western Conference teams carries some importance these days & this one is no different as the 7th and 8th place teams meet tonight in Dallas. For all of its exploits, Oklahoma City actually just moved back into the eighth position thanks to Sunday's results, which saw them win (at home over Chicago) and New Orleans lose (in 2OT's) to Denver.  The win over the Bulls was closer than the 109-100 final indicates as the Thunder did not pull away until late, enabling them to get the cover.  Dallas, who is off a 30-point win Friday night here at home against the Clippers (that I was on!), finally has some confidence back and I like them laying a small number at home.

Saying the Mavs are in 7th in the West is actually a bit misleading because they are actually in a three-way tie for 5th (w/ San Antonio and the Clippers).  Things were not going well for them at all prior to Friday, including getting handed their worst home loss of the season last Tuesday by Cleveland.  But as I predicted, they bounced back Friday and did so w/ perhaps their finest effort in many weeks.  The offense scored at least 32 pts in each of the final three quarters and broke open what had been a relatively close game up until that point.  HC Rick Carlisle was "obviously" channeling his "inner handicapper" when he noted that his team was "due to play better."  Here at home, the Mavs are still to respected; they are 22-11 SU here while averaging an impressive 106.5 PPG. 

Meanwhile, I've made the case before that Oklahoma City is not yet worthy trusted on the road.  Look no further than their 14-20 SU record away from home.  Their only road win dating back to the final week of February came at the expense of the woeful Lakers. Overall, they've lost 7 of 11 road games thanks to giving up an average of 104.1 PPG in them. Russell Westbrook's numbers remain very impressive, but how long can he carry the entire team?  I don't think that one player taking such a high percentage of his team's shots is a sustainable practice. Serge Ibaka remains doubtful for tonight's game, which further tests the team's already limited depth. 10* Dallas

8* Washington (7:05 ET): At first glance, this number would seem to be pretty accurate and/or generous if you're a Portland fan.  After all, your team just won in Toronto yday, comfortably so, and is now basically getting an identical number of points for a lesser matchup w/ a slightly lesser team from the East.  But despite the fact I now have the Blazers tied for 3rd (w/ the Clippers) in my own personal power rankings, I don't think tonight's matchup in D.C. is as simple as I laid out at the open of this analysis.  After a pretty generally crappy February, the Wizards seem to have things heading back in the right direction w/ three consecutive wins and covers, including one that I was on Saturday night against Sacramento. I'll lay the small number here as Washington takes advantage of an unrested foe.

After losing its first game w/o Wes Matthews (to Minnesota of all opponents), the Blazers have also now won three straight.  That loss to the T'wolves also represents their only defeat over the L9 games as well.  They outscored Toronto in all four quarters yday en route to a 16-point road win. Nicholas Batum called yday "one of the best games of the year" for his team, but unfortunately for them, their record as a road dog of three pts or less is still only 2-4 ATS.  Playing the second of back to backs is always tough, especially when you are leaving one country for another.  Somehow, Portland has managed to see its scoring average go UP a full 10 points per game in the three games w/o Matthews compared to the 60 w/ him. That's unsustainable from where I sit. 

Washington actually trailed Sacramento by 21 pts (in the 3Q) before a furious second half rally ended up producing a a 16-point victory.  That's a pretty ridiculous turnaround for one half of basketball, but I'll note that other recent wins over Charlotte and Memphis were far more comfortable.  Here at home, the Wiz have been really good all year, going 24-10 SU and in the games in which they are favored, they've gone 21-6 SU.  Owning edges with home court and rest, I'll call for Washington to win and cover for a fourth straight time.  8* Washington

10* Under Knicks/Suns (9:05 ET):  The Knicks are just so bad.  Predictably, they lost by 29 in Golden State last night, marking a quick return to previous form after a win Thursday night over the Lakers (which I was on).  The team has now lost six of its last seven, failing to score 100 pts in every loss, and in the five games previous to beating the Lakers, they did not even break 90 pts once.  Tonight they face a Phoenix team whose firepower has gone away and in three of the last four games they've failed to score 90 points. The first meeting this season between these teams resulted in a 99-90 final score and I see something similar occurring here.  Take the Under. 

Overall, Phoenix has gone Under in five straight games.  While this team still averages 104.6 points per game for the season, the Suns have been held under triple digits in five of eight games this month.  That can pretty much be tied to the Goran Dragic trade as they've averaged below 100 pts over the L23 games now.  Of course, this was somewhat to be expected after dealing away Dragic as well as Isaiah Thomas, two of their top scorers.  Injuries are also beginning to pile up, so its likely to be a real patchwork lineup on the floor this evening. I see this ending up as a real low-scoring game.   10* Under Knicks/Suns

8* LA Clippers (3:30 ET): The way things stand now, this would be a first round series in the Western Conference in the 4-5 spot. Houston would currently have the homecourt advantage, but the Clippers can pull within one-half game of them w/ a win today.  Both teams here enter in off bad losses.  The Rockets were beaten 109-91 in Utah Thursday night, their second loss in a row after being beaten by Portland the previous night (I was on the Blazers there!).  I've also been on the right side of the last two Clippers' game, first taking them in their "upset" of Oklahoma City Thursday night, then going against them the following night when they visited Dallas and lost by 30.   I have LA rated as the better team and considering they have revenge for a five-point loss in Houston three weeks ago, I'll lay the relatively short number.

There's really no sugarcoating what happened to the Clips Friday night in Dallas, so I won't even attempt to.  While the Rockets have lost four of six after initially going 11-4 w/o Dwight Howard, Los Angeles is now 9-6 SU w/o the services of Blake Griffin.  It did appear that they missed him Friday night.  But now he could be playing this afternoon, which would be a big boost for the home team.  If Griffin doesn't play, it's not too big of a concern considering his team led the Rockets going into the fourth quarter, on the road, in the last matchup.

This will be the Rockets' fourth straight road game.  On the road, they are allowing an average of 104 PPG this year, roughly eight points per game higher than what they allow at home.  Each opponent thus far on the road trip has hit 100 against them, and so too should the Clippers, who come in as one of the league's highest scoring teams at 106.1 PPG.   For Houston, James Harden has gone B2B games w/o scoring at least 20 pts.  This is just a huge game for the home team, who can take the season series and thus gain the inside track for home court advantage. 8* LA Clippers

10* SMU (3:15 ET): Perhaps it shouldn't come as too big a shock to see the 6-seed UConn playing today in the American Tournament Final. They were 4-1 SU during the regular season at the XL Center in Hartford (where this tournament is being played), and that includes a recent victory over today's opponent, SMU, 81-73 as 2-point dogs.  They had been destroyed by the Mustangs earlier in the season (lost by 18), so that makes today the rubber match.  Despite UConn basically having a home court edge in this one, it's tough not to like the better team laying a short number.  Lay the points.

Obviously, this is an all-too-familiar script here from UConn as the Huskies were a 7-seed when they cut down the nets after LY's NCAA Tournament. The defending National Champs have to win here to have a shot at defending their title, a fact that has helped to drive this line down lower than it should be.  But this is not the same team as last year either.  Let's keep in mind that the last two days have seen the Hukies win by just five and three while scoring a total of only 104 pts.  They did hold Tulsa to only 19 points in the second half yday and 29.6% shooting for the game.  But let's not forget that Tulsa was also one of the weaker 2-seeds in any conference tournament in recent memory. It is unlikely that they will even make the Big Dance.  Yesterday was also UConn's eighth win this season where they trailed at halftime. 

SMU really had no issues with either East Carolina or Temple on their way to this tourney final.  They too turned in a strong effort on the defensive end of the floor yday, holding Temple to just 29.3% from the floor, including 4 of 24 on three-pointers.   Of course, we've been accustomed to seeing that kind of effort all season from the Mustangs as they're holding teams under 60 PPG.  The most they allowed in any game this season was the 81 to UConn back on the 1st of the month, which also happens to be UConn's ONLY win over ranked opponent this year.  10* SMU

10* Villanova (8:00 ET):  Is there a more "unheralded" great team in the country than Villanova?  I would say not.  The Wildcats did have a close call yday against Providence (won by only 2), but one could make an argument that tonight's Big East Tournament Final is actually a DROP in class from the matchup w/ the Friars as they get set to play a Xavier team off B2B minor upsets of Butler and Georgetown.   Not only has 'Nova swept the Musketeers each of the past two regular season, going 4-0 straight up, but they have also gone 4-0 ATS in the process.  This Villanova team has not lost a game since January 19th.  Since then, they've rattled off 14 consecutive victories and gone 12-2 ATS in the process.  A big win here all but assures them of a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Lay the points.

Both regular season meetings between these teams were decided by double digits.  The more recent one was played in Cincinnati and saw Nova win by 12 as two-point favorites.  That's pretty much par for the course as the four wins over the Musketeers the last two seasons have come by an average of 13.7 PPG.  Nova has scorched them from three-point range, shooting 42.5 from behind the arc in those wins.  This year, they were over 44%!   While Xavier blew a seven-point halftime lead in the last meeting, they trailed by 18 at the break in the first one. I just don't see these teams being in the same class.

The Musketeers blew a 21-point lead yesterday against Georgetown, but held on for a two-point win.  But while Villanova has been pretty much dominant over a long-period of time, we've now seen Xavier win its last three games by a total of five points.  With an at-large big now all but assured, I'd say the Musketeers are ripe to be blown out here as Villanova goes for its first Big East Tournament Championship in 20 years, if you can believe that.   10* Villanova

10* Washington (7:05 ET):  A case could be made that over the last two months, the Wizards have been as bad as any potential playoff team in the league. But w/ B2B impressive blowouts over Charlotte and Memphis this week, might they be getting set to turn it around? I'm willing to bank on it as they get set to host a bad Sacramento team tonight.  Even better is that the Kings are taking the court w/out rest as they suffered an embarrassing loss last night in Philadelphia.  A bad team, playing its third road game in four nights, in bad form is a pretty good target for a 'play against' situation this time of year in my estimation.  That's precisely what I'll do here.

Sacramento has lost five of its last six.  They too beat Charlotte earlier in the week, but any goodwill stemming from that victory was immediately lost w/ last night's embarrassing loss.  We knew that the Kings were a bad defensive team to begin with (28th in points allowed), but giving up 114 to the lowly Sixers is unforgivable.  Normally you might think that pride would kick in and they'd be a good play plus the points the following night.  But considering this team has already lost three times by 25+ points since George Karl took over last month, I would say there's not much pride to go around here.  Making last night's loss especially painful was that the Kings led by 13 at halftime.

Washington has held eight straight opponents under 100 points. Their best defensive performance during the stretch came Monday when they held the Hornets to just 69 points.  They followed that w/ perhaps a more impressive showing, beating a good Memphis team by 20 points here at home Thursday night on TNT.  While Sacramento is playing for a third time in four nights, this will be the Wizards third game over a six day span.  So they're well rested and in better form to boot.  Look for them to take advantage of a Kings team that allows nearly 108 PPG on the road and is just 7-17 ATS this season vs. the Eastern Conference.  10* Washington

8* Michigan State (3:30 ET): The lower seed is favored here, which always catches my attention. Then again, I'm not surprised at all as I don't believe Maryland is anywhere near as good as their ranking (currently #8).  Yesterday saw the Terrapins win for an 8th straight time, beating Indiana 75-69.  Like Michigan State did over Ohio State, the Terps had the advantage of playing w/ rest while the opponent did not, but now things are even w/ both squads playing for a second time in two days. Something to consider here is that Sparty has double revenge from the regular season and no team has beaten Tom Izzo three times in the same season since 2003-04.   Lay the points. 

MSU has won six of eight w/ one of the losses coming in OT and the other at Wisconsin.  They come off an impressive win over a very good Ohio State team yday.  The Buckeyes were held under 40% shooting for the game and trailed Sparty by as many as 17 in the second half.  So the game wasn't necessarily as close as the final score indicated.  I'm probably not the first person you've heard say this, and certainly won't be the last, but I put a lot of faith in Tom Izzo this time of year.  While Maryland has been an overachiever all season, I don't think Michigan State has really played up to its potential.  They've taken a number of tough losses, including a double OT game in the first loss to Maryland, and due to have a few "go their way" in my opinion.  Such will be the case here.

Maryland has lost only three Big 10 games this season, but all were blowouts (by 16 or more points).  Meanwhile, yday was their ninth win by six points or less in conference play.  This is a team that clearly has benefited from good fortune all year.  A relatively weak non-conference schedule, save for games vs. Virginia (lost) and Iowa State, also helped inflate their record.  The current winning streak is the program's longest since a 13-game run two seasons ago.  I totally agree with the linesmakers assessment of these teams (i.e Mich St being favored) and let's not forget that Izzo won this event not just LY, but two of the previous three as well.  8* Michigan State

8* Dallas (8:35 ET):  This is a classic situation where we're using both teams' previous results to our benefit.  In the case of the Clippers, I was on them as they went to Oklahoma City Wednesday for another nationally televised affair and prevailed 120-108, a near 20 pt cover.  Meanwhile, the night previous saw Dallas get absolutely humiliated at home by Cleveland, losing by 33.  That was their worst home loss in many years and despite how things have looked lately, I'm fully anticipating a bounce back performance from the Mavericks here.  Though being a home dog for the 1st time all year didn't work out, this is still a favorable price range for a team that averages 105.7 points per game on its own floor.

The Clippers have actually been one of the worst pointspread teams in the league all year.  They're just 28-36-1 ATS overall.  I thought they were being drastically undervalued at Oklahoma City, but the opposite seems to hold true here as it seems the home team isn't getting much of a boost for playing in its own gym.  Consider the last time the Clips came calling to Dallas, they were 8.5-point dogs. Granted they did win that game, pretty comfortably, and they also beat the Mavs by 20 at Staples Center back in January.  But I think it's just really hard to win B2B road games in the Western Conference, provided you're not playing Denver, Sacramento, the Lakers or Minnesota.

Remember that the Clippers are still without Blake Griffin.  They've gone 9-5 SU w/o him so far, but now the challenge is greater with Jamal Crawford sidelined as well.  JJ Redick isn't a viable long-term option, in my opinion.  Meanwhile, the Mavericks' Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki are overdue to see their numbers improve.  Los Angeles is allowing 102.6 PPG on the road and w/ double revenge and off a bad loss, I cannot see Dallas not being supremely motivated here.  8* Dallas

10* Toronto (7:35 ET):  I realize that the Raptors have struggled mightily of late, losing 9 of their last 10 games.  But this game is at home against a Miami team that simply is not very good.  Thus, I feel they're being undervalued in this matchup, rather significantly.  The majority of Toronto's games since the All-Star Break have come on the road.  Here at home, where they significantly better on the defensive end, they've gone 21-11 SU this season. Now they need to get it going offensively, which they have the L5 games (106.2 PPG), as they look to snap a ridiculous 16-game losing streak to the Heat. Honestly, I was shocked when I found that streak and in addition to believing it to be just unsustainable, I'll again note that the Heat just aren't that good. 

Miami comes into this game ranked 28th in points, 30th in rebounding and 29th in assists.   That's clearly indicative of a really bad team and in fact I continue to rate the Heat in the bottom 10 in the entire league overall.  Averaging only 93.1 points per game on the road this season, I see them struggling to keep up here.  They did top 100 in a win over Brooklyn Weds night, but that was at home.  The team has lost six of its last eight road games with one of the wins coming by three points in OT against Orlando.  The other win was against the Knicks.  One would have to go back to late January to find the last time the Heat beat a .500 or better foe on the road.  I'm not buying into Dwyane Wade's recent high level performances either. 

I fully expect a motivated performance from the Raptors here, not just because of the losing streak to the Heat, but also because of the way PG Kyle Lowry "ripped" into the team for its lethargic start against the Spurs Tuesday night.  With two days off to prepare for this one, this has all the makings of a "must win" for Toronto, who did show some signs of life in fighting back against San Antonio.   Toronto has been the better team all year and should be laying more points at home against a sub.-500 foe.  10* Toronto

10* Temple (2:30 ET):   The American features a fairly wide open tournament and this is the 4-5 matchup w/ the winner (presumably) facing top-seed SMU.   Temple is one of the teams firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, based on the strength of their win over Kansas, and cannot afford a loss here.  The quarterfinal opponent is Memphis, not considered a NCAA Tournament team.  The Tigers lost three of their final four regular season games, and lost to the Owls by one (at home) the only time they played in the regular season.  Very quietly, Temple has won 10 of 12 w/ the only losses coming to the top two teams in the conference, SMU and Tulsa, both on the road.  Overall, they've won 16 of 21 and are a good value this afternoon. Lay the points.

Temple went 1-5 SU against the three teams that finished higher than them in the American standings, but 12-0 SU vs. everybody else.  Duke and Villanova handed them two of their other defeats, so this is clearly a team that typically takes care of business when faced w/ "lesser competition."  In the 18 games in which the Owls were favored during the regular season, they only lost three.  The fact that Memphis is 1-8 SU/ATS as an underdog this year is all the more encouraging.    Again, this is a game Temple probably cannot lose if it wants to make the Big Dance.

Despite shooting only 33.3 percent against Memphis earlier this year, the Owls were able to erase a 10-point halftime deficit on the road and get the win.  That's actually encouraging as I don't believe they'll shoot that poorly again.  Memphis did not end its regular season well as they lost six of 11 w/ three of the wins coming against Jacksonville State, USF and Central Florida (OT).   The importance of this game for Temple cannot be understated.  Having already won at Memphis this year, they should be able to take care of business on a neutral floor.  10* Temple

8* Penn State (2:30 ET):   The Nittany Lions, who are the 13-seed in the Big 10 Tournament, pulled an upset here yday, beating 5-seed Iowa 67-58 as 8.5-point dogs.   This will now be their third game in three days after also beating Nebraska on Wednesday.  With opposing Purdue being "on the bubble," they probably can't afford the loss here, so many are probably going to be inclined to take the points.  But not me.  The Boilermakers' sterling 14-4 ATS conference record was built up largely as as underdog, as they've failed to cover two in a row as favorites.  That includes the regular season finale vs. Illinois.  This is a below .500 team away from home as well, so I'll take the points w/ the team no one is going to be expecting much from here today.

Penn State is now 10-4 ATS this season taking points following yday's upset of Iowa.  I think that most, myself included, would have Iowa ranked higher than Purdue for what it's worth.  The Nittany Lions, who trailed 28-19 at halftime Wednesday, exploded for 48 second half points for the upset.  However, the key was holding Iowa to just 26.3% shooting for the game.  Remember that the Hawkeyes were rested yesterday, so the bye may not be all that beneficial to Purdue here.

The Nittany Lions are not nearly as bad as their record shows considering that all but four of their conference losses this season were by single digits.  One of those came to Purdue, in State College, in overtime back in January.  That was one of three OT losses (no wins) this season for PSU.  One could certainly make the argument that Penn State outplayed Purdue in the first meeting, as they led most of the way, before fouling up three in the final seconds went awry (Purdue missed both FT's, but got the rebound and subsequent three-pointer).  Penn State was a one-point favorite for that game, so again, even factoring out any home court advantage, the line seems a bit inflated here.  Purdue, who has lost two of their last three overall, had a number of close victories during the regular season, so it's tough to like them as the chalk.  8* Penn State

8* New York (10:35 ET):  Hold your nose and take the points in this one.  I concede to you that the Knicks are an awful team.  They have the worst record in the league, yes even worse than Philadelphia, at 12-51 SU and have dropped five in a row by an average of 20 points per game.  But that and the fact the Lakers are off a rare SU win have combined to really influence this line.  The Lakers have actually been hot at the betting window, covering eight of nine, but prior to Tuesday's win over Detroit, they'd lost five in a row.  This is not a team that should be favored very often, and never by this many points.

This will be just the sixth time all season that the Lakers have been favored in a game.  The last came right before the All-Star Break and they lost outright to Denver, here at home, by a score of 106-96.  Keep in mind that this is a team that has just five wins in its last 26 games overall.  They are among the worst teams defensively in the entire league, giving up over 105 PPG.  I just don't see how they can be favored by this many points against any opponent. 

Then you have the fact that the Knicks beat the Lakers back on February 1st, 92-80 at MSG.  New York was a three-point favorite in that matchup, so again it looks like there's plenty of value here in taking the points for the rematch.  The Knicks have been close in two of their previous three games, covering against both Indiana and Utah in losses by six points or less, and those are actually two of the hottest teams in the league right now.  Sub-.400 teams off a SU win this time of year tend to be purely fade material for me.  This play is no endorsement of the Knicks, it's merely a repudiation of the Lakers being favored.  8* New York.

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET):  Indiana's recent results aside, the spread is just too high here, plus as you know I always have my eye on underdogs in conference matchups where the total is low.  So a number of parameters are met here as the Bucks visit the Pacers and are getting about five points too many according to my ratings.  Remember that Milwaukee has been one of the top pointspread teams in the league all season, including a lethal 23-14 ATS record as an underdog.  They won yday, 97-91 over Orlando, holding the Magic to just 34 points total in the second half.  I see the Bucks staying within the number in this one.  Take the points.

Indiana comes in having won six straight and is 5-1 ATS in those games.   They have been favored in every game.  However, the win streak is not as impressive when you consider who they played.  They've faced the Knicks twice (failed to cover once), Philadelphia, Orlando as well as depleted Cleveland and Chicago rosters.  While 11-3 ATS their last 14 games overall, the Pacers now seem to be overpriced as the previous time they hosted Milwaukee this season, they were only four-point favorites and promptly lost outright.  Granted, the team is playing much better now, but it's not enough to justify this level of favoritism. A number of unheralded players have stepped up recently, and I don't think that can be counted on for a game by game basis. 

Given that both teams tend to play low-scoring games, that would actually favor the dog, given that points will be at a premium.  Milwaukee is 4th in the league in PPG allowed (96.6), right behind Indiana.  While they've cooled off significantly since the All-Star Break, the Bucks have won two of three and you can expect this game to have their full attention now that Indiana is only three games back of them for the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference.  Keep an eye on Khris Middleton, who has scored 30 points (a career-high) twice in the last three games.  Bottom line is that it just seems to me that a recent soft schedule has inflated the market value of the Pacers.  10* Milwaukee

8* St. Bonaventure (6:30 ET):  This is a second round matchup in the A-10 w/ the winner moving on to face 2-seed Dayton.  St. Bonaventure is the higher seed here (7 as opposed to 10) and swept St. Joe's during the regular season, winning by nearly identical scores. Both teams would need to win this tourney in order to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, which is highly unlikely, but I do think the Bonnies should at least roll here tonight and make it 3-0 vs. the Hawks this year.  In addition to beating St. Joe's twice this year, the Bonnies also ended the regular season in better form w/ three straight wins, all by 16+ points.

The final scores of the two regular season meetings were 70-61 and 70-60.  The Bonnies shot much better in the one home meeting (47.2% compared to just 37.9% on the road) while St. Joe's shot poorly in both games, particularly from the free throw line, which cost them.  St. Joe's is just an awful FT shooting team at 61.1 percent for the year.  You have to figure they'll struggle to score points here as they average 62.1 per game.  St. Bonaventure was also much better at taking care of business away from home this year, turning in a respectable 8-6 SU record while St. Joe's went 3-13 SU in road/neutral site games. 

The last time these teams played was February 21st.   The Bonnies were two-point road dogs, but won in overtime, snapping a three-game losing streak at the time.  As I said earlier, the Bonnies closed the regular season in much stronger fashion, though they did benefit from playing the bottom of the league.  Still, the 92 points they scored in regulation vs. Duquesne was a season-best (excluding OT) and in the two games since they've allowed just 100 pts.  This is the most wins any St. Bonaventure team has had in conference play since 1999-00.   St. Joe's, which failed to break 60 pts in two of its last three games, shot 56.3% against Rhode Island last weekend and still lost by 10 points.   8* St. Bonaventure.

10* Baylor (12:30 ET):  This is the 4-5 matchup in the Big 12 Tournament w/ the winner drawing the winner of the Kansas-TCU matchup.  Both Baylor and West Virginia are considered "locks" for the NCAA Tournament, the only thing at stake here for either is improving seeding.  Well, for WVU, there is a case of double revenge on the mind, but unfortunately for them it's looking like leading scorer Juwan Staten may not play Thursday (currently listed as doubtful) due to a knee injury.  The Mountaineers lost two of three games w/out him in the lineup at the end of the regular season, including at Waco by a 12-point margin.  Earlier in the year, with Staten in the lineup, Baylor went to Morgantown and won by 18.  The third time will not be the charm here for West Virginia.

Overall, Baylor has won six of the past seven meetings with WVU.  They shot 53% against them in this year's two wins and in the most recent matchup, turned the ball over only eight times, the fewest by any WVU opponent all season.  I really like this Bears' team, which has made the Big 12 Tourney Final two of the past three seasons.  Baylor is 8th nationally in rebounding (39.6 per game) and its only loss over the L6 games came in an OT affair.  They'd covered four in a row, before a lethargic effort in the regular season finale vs. Texas Tech.  As a neutral court favorite of three points or less, they've covered 9 of 11 and they're 5-1 ATS L6 when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest. 

It's difficult to understate the impact Staten's absence would have on West Virginia here. Not only does he lead the team in scoring, but he leads them in assists as well.  Baylor allows just 60 PPG to begin with, so playing w/o their top playmaker, I envision WVU struggling to score points in this matchup.  The Mountaineers are just 4-7 SU vs. ranked foes this season while Baylor has won six of its last eight.  Both regular season matchups were basically "over" by halftime (Bears led by 15+ both times), so possibly w/o their best player, I can't see WVU doing any better here.  10* Baylor.

8* Virginia (12:00 ET):  UVA will be competing to earn a #1 seed in the Big Dance here in Charlotte.  Winning this event would obviously ensure they get it, but I wonder what the committee might do if say the Cavaliers were to lose to Duke again, in the Tourney Final? Given they have just two losses all season, I'd say the Cavs are pretty safe, but I'll still call for them to win big in this ACC Quarterfinal matchup w/ Florida State.  The 'Noles had to play yday just to get here, and almost blew all of a 20-point lead, before holding on for a 76-73 win over Clemson as 1.5-point dogs.  This step up in class should signal an ugly end to their tournament run.   Lay the points. 

Obviously, we know Virginia's calling card is defense.  Playing its last eight games w/o second leading scorer Justin Anderson, they held the opposition to an average of just 49.3 points per game.  For the season, they finished 1st in the country in points allowed per game at 50.3.   Florida State found out the hard way what UVA's defense is all about as they scored just 41 in a loss at Charlottesville last month, one of the games the Cavs played w/o Anderson.  The Seminoles often struggle to score to begin with, averaging just 62.9 PPG away from Tallahassee.  Playing w/o rest, I feel they are likely again to struggle to score here. 

It was an early game Wednesday, but still playing B2B days can take a lot out of a team.  I'd say it's a virtual lock that FSU won't be duplicating yday's 54.5 percent shooting.  I realize that they did lead Clemson by 13 w/ just two minutes remaining, so the game wasn't really as close as the final score indicates.  It's just that I see a repeat looming of February 26th when the Noles shot just 32.6% against this Virginia team.  Also, the Cavaliers should be motivated after losing the regular season finale at Louisville.   8* Virginia.

8* Detroit (10:35 ET):  If one were to only give a simple glance at the Pistons' recent results, then that person would likely have little interest in taking the points here in a matchup w/ the league's best team, the Golden State Warriors.   However, I'll note that just about all of the Pistons' seven straight losses have been close (all by 10 pts or less).  Yes, losing to the Lakers last night is a somewhat ominous sign.  But this will be the most points they've gotten in a game all season and I think it's worth a shot against a Warriors team who we've seen come back down to Earth slightly over the last month.  Yes, take the points.

Golden State has won four in a row, but the last three times they have been favored by more than 13 points, they have failed to cover.  This includes a March 4th home date w/ Milwaukee, a comparable team to the Pistons.  This has all the makings of a "trap" game for the Warriors as they are off B2B wins over division foes and their next game will be on the road.

As for the Pistons, it's amazing that they average so few points per game given that they are among the league leaders with over 45 per game in the paint.  Outside shooting has been a major problem all season as the team was 8 for 35 from long range last night in LA.  It's looking less likely that they will make the playoffs, even in the weak Eastern Conference, but simply "laying down" here is not the answer, especially w/ two more tough road games upcoming.  This is one of those weird situations where I feel the road dog will be the more motivated side.   8* Detroit.

10* Portland (10:35 ET):  The Blazers aren't being given enough credit for their strong home court advantage I feel.  I have them rated higher than Houston to begin with, so there's definitely value w/ the number opening below 3 points.  Portland is 26-6 SU for the year at the Moda Center, holding opponents to an average of just 93.3 points per game.  They had won five in a row overall before suffering an embarrassing loss at Minnesota Saturday night.  Houston also last played Saturday, so both teams will be well rested, but Portland should be more motivated coming off a loss and they are at home.  Lay the small number.

We know that both of these teams can score, so I really think that defense is the key.  Predictably, Houston has regressed w/out Dwight Howard on that end of the floor to the point they are now allowing 103.8 PPG on the road.  Remember what I said about Portland's defensive numbers here at home.   Their last time here, the Blazers held Dallas to a season-low 75 points in what was a very impressive looking victory.   The home/road designations really affect each team's defensive play as Portland gives up a full four points per game less than their season average here at home.  Meanwhile, Houston is four full points ABOVE its season average on the road.

I did play against Portland Saturday night, but that was coming off the big win over Dallas.  It was also their first game without Wes Matthews.  Having had the last couple days off, they now should be better served to deal with his absence.  Aaron Afflalo needs to step up now that he's a starter.  Also, remember that Portland won in Houston last month, 109-98 as four-point dogs.  The one time Houston beat Portland this season is when the Blazers were without LaMarcus Aldridge.  Portland is too good at home to be this undervalued.  10* Portland

10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET):  I have to say this is one of the more head-scratching lines in recent memory.  My latest power rankings say that the Clips, if totally healthy, should be a road favorite here!  They're not totally healthy (Jamal Crawford & Blake Griffin both OUT) though, but still they should be a lot closer to a pick em.  Am I missing something here? I realize that I generally have had the Thunder rated lower than most even in the midst of this comeback of theirs, but that's for good reason as they are just 18-21 ATS as a favorite following three consecutive non-covers.   Oh by the way, they are still w/out Kevin Durant!  Take the points here. 

Each of OKC's last six games have been decided by seven points or less.  The fact that many of those games have come against bad/slumping/injured teams makes this line all the more curious.  Sunday, they only beat slumping Toronto by four points here at home.  That same Raptors team lost by double digits last night to the other ascendant team in the Western Conference, San Antonio. So again, I maintain the Thunder are still being overrated by the marketplace.  Despite all of the exploits of Russell Westbrook, this is a team that still lost to an injury-riddled Chicago team last Thursday (I was on the Bulls) and barely beat the Lakers and Sixers before that.  I concede that they did blowout the Clippers, laying an identical number, the last time they hosted them.  But that was before the All-Star Break when Durant was still in the lineup.

After taking B2B tough losses to Portland and Golden State, the Clippers recorded a much needed win Monday, holding Minnesota to just 76 points.  With Chris Paul not 100%, the effort on the defensive end was much needed.  While Paul struggled to shoot, he still had 15 assists in 29 minutes of play.  After allowing 85 pts or less in their previous game, Los Angeles is 4-1 SU/ATS this season.  I just think that these teams are a lot more even now than what this line indicates.  The Thunder are just 5-7 ATS their L12 games against teams with winning records.  10* LA Clippers

8* American (7:30 ET):  What a wild scene this Patriot League Tournament has been.  We have the 4-seed and 6-seed playing in the Final as Lafayette and American upset the top two seeds on Sunday.  As a result, the 4-seed Lafayette actually winds up w/ the home court advantage as every game in this tournament is played at the higher seed.  To get here, the top-seeded Leopards upset top-seed and defending league champ Bucknell, just their second all-time win at Sojka Pavilion.  They were actually only three-point dogs heading into that contest, so perhaps it shouldn't be termed as any kind of "major upset."  Meanwhile, American U upset second seed Colgate (as 5.5-point dogs) Sunday after jumping out to a big halftime lead. In an unlikely tourney final such as this, my natural inclination is to take the points and that's what I'll do here.

American swept the regular season series, including a two-point win on this floor back in January.  The Eagles shot the ball remarkably well in both matchups, including going 60 percent from the field in that earlier road win.  In the rematch, they scored 88 points on the Leopards as both sides were lights out from three-point range, but the Eagles still led by double digits most of the second half.  This American team has put up some remarkable shooting performances this season, including the last game as they were an insane 61.9% for the game, including 7 for 12 on three-point attempts.  They led by as many as 20 on Colgate's floor.  What's so odd is this team actually averages less than 60 PPG for the season.  But they shot the ball well in conference play and I see that keeping them in this one.

Interestingly, no matter who wins here, the result of this game will snap a streak that has seen one of the top two seeds win the Patriot League Tournament every season since 1989-90.   There were no lines for either of the two regular season matchups, so it's difficult to gauge any sort of "value" w/ this line, but to me in a wide open, winner take all scenario, it's tough not to gravitate towards the dog that won SU two times previously. After all, Lafayette was only 9-9 SU in league play during the regular season.  8* American

10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET):  It figures to be a short stay in the Big East Tournament for both of these teams as the winner faces Villanova tomorrow. Seton Hall and Marquette both fell apart down the stretch and have little "momentum" coming into MSG.  Seton Hall opened conference play w/ B2B wins over ranked opponents (St. John's, Villanova), both at home.  But that ended up being the peak of the season as they've since lost 11 of 14.  One of those wins though was over Marquette, who they ended up splitting with.  The Golden Eagles had themselves  a down year, going just 4-14 SU vs. the Big East, though they did win the regular season finale over DePaul.  But considering they've been unable to string together consecutive conference victories all season, I'll go against Marquette here. 

Both teams won on the other's floor during the regular season.  The last matchup, won by Marquette, saw poor shooting from both sides as the Golden Eagles made only 1 of 10 three-point attempt while Seton Hall was just 30% overall from the field. Interestingly enough, that was Marquette's ONLY "true" road win of the entire season!  They lost their other eight in Big East play, only twice breaking the 60-point barrier.  Saturday at home vs Depaul was another bad shooting night from both sides, including the Golden Eagles finishing the game at just 32.7 percent.  Depaul, who came in averaging eight 3-point makes per game, was just 3 for 18 from beyond the arc and also attempted only six free throws. 

Seton Hall had some major attrition down the stretch.  A starting guard left the team, Sterling Gibbs was suspended for 2 games and leading scorer Isaiah Whitehead struggled mightily.  But still though, I feel there is enough talent remaining here to at least beat Marquette again.  The Pirates scored 80 against them in their win back in January and if they can get anywhere close to that here, then they should have no problem winning.  Marquette had both lost and failed to cover six straight times before the Depaul game.  They lost and failed to cover four games in a row before the win at Seton Hall.  So, they are still just 2-10 SU/ATS L12 and in an unfavorable price range.  10* Seton Hall.

10* Over Knicks/Jazz (9:05 ET):   Quietly, Utah has become quite the competitive squad.  They are 7-2 SU/ATS their last nine games w/ the two SU losses coming by a total of four points.  They have also been better than .500 for some time now and as a result have already surpassed LY's win total.  Defense has played a significant role.  They've held six straight opponent under 90 points, a pretty remarkable achievement when you think about it.  Sunday's 95-88 road win over Brooklyn was also their sixth straight Under.  They haven't been a bigger favorite than they are here, all season, and for good reason as the sorry Knicks are the ones that come calling to Salt Lake. But in spite of both team's recent numbers, I'm going to play this one Over a very low total.

New York has averaged just 83 PPG during a four-game losing streak, so offensively they look to be in trouble again tonight facing a team that has allowed just 82.5 PPG its last six.   But I'll note that the Knicks saw two similar totals (to this one) last month and went Over both times.  Both games were against Miami and the Heat (one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, mind you) wound up averaging 110 points per game!  Thus, the key tonight will be the Jazz "getting theirs" and they certainly should considering the Knicks are allowing 103.5 PPG on the road.  Seven of their last nine opponents have gone over 100 pts, including the Nuggets last night despite only 15 points in the fourth quarter.  

I see value in tonight's number as the total was roughly 10 points higher when the teams met in New York back in November. That game, a 102-100 Utah victory, went Over easily.  Eventually, the scoring will have to rise - on both sides - from recent levels.  Interestingly, the Jazz do allow more than 50 PPG in the first half at home.  Their current pace is just unsustainable as games where both they and the opponent end up in the 80's isn't something you see much.  Brooklyn did shoot 50% against them Sunday. The Knicks can't go a fifth straight game shooting below 40%, can they?   10* Over Knicks/Jazz

8* Dallas (8:35 ET):  I'll continue to play against Cleveland on the road until they can prove to me they can defeat a top team away from home.  Friday, the Cavs went to Atlanta and I was on the Hawks, who won rather easily 106-97 as 1.5-pt dogs.  Overall, LeBron and company have lost three of their last four on the road and are just .500 SU there for the season (16-16), outscoring their opponents by less than one point per game. Thus, they are not an ideal candidate to be laying points here against a Dallas team that's averaging 106.0 PPG on its own floor this season.  It's just not often that you'll find the Mavs as a home dog (1st time all season!), especially taking this many points. 

Dallas has struggled to score of late (11 straight Unders!) and as a result over their last six games, their record is just 2-4 straight up and 1-5 against the spread.  They did rally to beat the lowly Lakers on Sunday, however.  Trailing entering the 4Q, they held the Lakers to just 16 pts over the final 12 minutes, but it still wasn't enough to cover.   The team is now only one-half game ahead of San Antonio, putting them in danger of falling into the seventh spot in the Western Conference.  There should be a real sense of urgency going into tonight's game and I just can't see them not competing here.  Again, this will be the first time all season that they have been a home dog.

Cleveland just got done playing four games in five days and while they looked impressive for three quarters (at home) vs. Phoenix, they did let the Suns back in the game and ended up missing out on the cover.  Depth is a bit of a concern for HC David Blatt as he really needs to have either LeBron James or Kyrie Irving out on the floor at all times.  The team has not played well in the fourth quarter in three consecutive games and they are just 2-5 ATS and 3-4 SU as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts this season.  Playing without LeBron back in January, the Cavs lost 109-90 at home to the Mavs as Dallas shot a season best 56.4% from the field.  Cleveland remains a subpar defensive team.  8* Dallas

8* Toronto (8:35 ET):  The Raptors came out of the All-Star Break w/ a very impressive 105-80 win (as 5.5-pt dogs) over the Hawks, in Atlanta.  Since that game, they have been decline.  They have just one win in the last nine games and it came at the expense of Philadelphia.  Therefore, on paper, a matchup with the streaking Spurs (winners of five straight) certainly does not look ideal.  San Antonio has averaged an impressive 111.2 points per game during its win streak while outscoring opponents by almost 17 PPG.   But with a bigger game against Cleveland looming Thursday, might the defending champs get caught "looking ahead" here?  I think the spread is too high, especially considering the Raptors beat the Spurs last month.  Take the points.

San Antonio's win streak has coincided w/ their starting five being healthy for the first time all season.  Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard both played outstanding games Sunday as the Spurs beat the Bulls 116-105.  They had an 18-point halftime lead in that one.  Transition points were huge as the Spurs scored 38 of them, 15 off Chicago turnovers. Keep in mind that this is a team that averages the third-fewest number of transition points per game in the entire league.  So that was a bit of an abberration.  I had the Over in that game, noting the Bulls' poor defensive numbers this season, so I really wasn't surprised to see the Spurs shoot so well.  But still, they are just 2-7 ATS their last nine vs. teams with winning records and 0-4 ATS for the season as home chalk in the 6.5 to 9 point range.

Toronto is actually a better offensive team on the road.  They average an impressive 105.8 PPG in such contests and were able to hang within the number Sunday at Oklahoma City, losing only 108-104 as seven-point pups.  They did lead the Thunder at halftime, but did not have an answer for Russell Westbrook (5th triple double in 6 games) even w/ the return of Kyle Lowry to the lineup.  Lowry predictably struggled shooting the ball in his first game back and the team didn't get to the free throw line enough (just 9 attempts).  Getting the Raptors plus this many points has been rare this season. 8* Toronto

10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET):  So as I said, I played the correct side (Valpo) in both regular season matchups.  The Crusaders cashed the first, as 5.5-point underdogs, in a 51-50 loss.  They did lead most of the way in that game, and then in the rematch got their revenge w/ a 63-59 win and cover as 2.5-point chalk.  Once again, they're not getting much credit for home court advantage in this tourney final. I have Valpo rated as the better team here and they enter into tonight's game in better form, off B2B hard fought victories over a good Cleveland State team, and they've won nine of 10 overall.  As a matter of fact, this team has just five losses all season! Playing on its home floor, they should advance to the NCAA Tournament.

Green Bay caught a bit of a break in its tournament semifinal matchup as they drew UIC, who had upset Oakland the previous day.  That being said, the Phoenix actually trailed the Flames at halftime before rallying back to take the game and the cash as 12-point chalk.  A similar slow start here would likely be the death knell as this is a "true" road game and not only is Valpo 14-1 SU at home this season, but Green Bay has failed to cover four of its last five true roadies and has a losing road record (5-7 SU) this season.   Here at home, Valpo is holding teams to just 59.8 points per game and outscoring them by 12.6 PPG.

Neither team shot well in either regular season meeting.  Both were right around 36% from the field.  The difference maker for Valpo could be Alec Peters, who made 47 percent of his three-point attempts during the regular season. With one of their three double-digit scorers (T. Walker) listed as doubtful for this matchup, Peters will likely have to pick up the slack.  Normally when points are likely to be at a premium as they will be here, my inclination is to take the points, but the number is so small plus you have Valpo playing on its home floor.  The Crusaders actually controlled the two games vs. Cleveland State more than the final scores show, leading for the majority of those contests.  They are 9-2 ATS their L11 games vs. teams w/ winning records. 10* Valparaiso

8* Pepperdine (9:00 ET):  We're down to the semifinal round in the WCC Tournament where prohibitive favorite Gonzaga isn't really playing for much, that is unless you still think they can earn themselves a #1 seed in the Big Dance.  I suppose they can, but I think it's still dangerous to be laying points with the Zags in this event, especially after watching them fail to cash in their first tournament matchup, that being Saturday's 81-72 win over San Francisco where they were 16.5 point favorites.  Gonzaga actually trailed at halftime in that game and now the line is very similar as they face a Pepperdine squad that has "made waves" as an underdog throughout the season, going 10-3 ATS when taking points.  I'm on the underdog here.

Pepperdine won its first tourney game 50-47 over San Diego.  They were able to overcome scoring just 18 pts in the first half by holding USD to just 31.8 percent shooting for the entire game, a pretty strong defensive achievement.  That was the Waves' fifth straight game holding an opponent under 60 pts.  It will obviously be difficult to keep that streak alive here against the best shooting team in the entire country, but note that Pepperdine did play Gonzaga tough in both regular season matchups, losing by single digits on both occasions.   Up in Spokane, they were able to keep things close despite going 0 for 10 from three-point range as they held the Zags to just 56 points, their season low.  Pepperdine also beat BYU both times during the regular season, including one wire to wire win. 

Gonzaga has not fared well as a big favorite at a neutral setting, failing to cover seven straight times as chalk of 12.5 pts or higher when there is no home court advantage for either side.  The streak is almost entirely comprised of WCC Tournament games the past couple seasons.  With such little incentive to win by any kind of margin this week, I expect the Zags to come out lethargic yet again tonight and for the underdog to stay within the number.   Junior forward Kyle Wiltjer may not play here after injuring his hip in the win over San Francisco.  8* Pepperdine

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET):  Both of these teams here are off low-scoring victories.  In the case of the Bucks, they beat Washington 91-85 Saturday while that same night New Orleans was a 95-89 winner over Memphis. In both instances, each team had to come from behind to pick up the victory.  While Milwaukee has been a bankroll busting 2-11 against the spread this season after giving up 85 pts or less, I think they are being drastically undervalued here at home.  I say this because New Orleans is just 12-18 SU on the road and also tends not to perform that well when off a SU win (just 12-21 SU this year). I know that Anthony Davis is back, but that alone won't be enough for the Pelicans to win on the road.

New Orleans is still without both starting PG Jrue Holliday as well as Ryan Anderson, two of their top four scorers.  The team was down 12 at halftime to Memphis Saturday night before exploding in the third quarter (outscored Grizzlies 33-17).  It was the second time in three games where the Pelicans rallied to win after trailing by double digits.  Eventually, that starts to catch up w/ you.  Also, playing w/out Holliday, turnovers have become an issue.  They've committed 18 each of the last two games.   I still have Milwaukee rated higher in my power rankings, thus this line should be a lot closer to the standard three points for the home team. 

After a 0-4 SU/ATS West Coast swing, the Bucks returned home Saturday and picked up a big win over the team right in front of them in the Eastern Conference standings.  Granted, Washington has seemingly gone in the tank, but the Bucks held them to 38.3 percent shooting and never allowed more than 24 points in any quarter. Khris Middleton exploded for a career-best 30 pts to lead the way for Milwaukee, who is now 17-11 SU at home and allowed an average of just 86.5 PPG its L2 here.  The second half of the season has not gone well so far for the Bucks, but things figure to "even out."  Michael-Carter Williams is still figuring things out with his new team and the team's recent slump in shooting from behind the arc figures to at least plateau.  10* Milwaukee

8* Sacramento (7:35 ET):  I played against the Kings their last two games, both out on the road, and came away with the cover each time.  Saturday, I was pretty fortunate in that Miami was able to force OT and win by five (laying 4.5).  That makes it B2B five-point losses for George Karl's team and although the task looks even tougher here against an Atlanta team still smarting from an outright loss to Philadelphia, the number is just too high.  Saturday was a clear letdown spot for the Hawks, being one night removed from an impressive win over Cleveland (was on them there!).  They had a six-game win streak snapped in Philly, but even as good as they've been here at home all year (29-4 SU), they are still only outscoring foes by 7.3 points per game.   I see Sacramento staying surprisingly competitive here. Take the points.

The Kings had 61 points by halftime Saturday night and at one point enjoyed a lead as great as 16 points, but still it wasn't enough to fend off the Heat.  They also finished with a nice rebounding edge, but somehow converted 12 offensive boards into just 12 points.  Those rebounding numbers are key because Atlanta was just outrebounded 55-42 by Philadelphia and while they were w/out Paul Milsap, that's pretty inexcusable.  Under Karl, you figure the Kings are going to at least remain competitive and this is a pretty big number the team is getting.  Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as a road favorite of 9.5 to 12 pts this season and 2-9 ATS in that range the L3 seasons.

Also interesting is that the Hawks have just one blowout win to their credit since the All-Star Break, that coming against Dallas over a week ago. A team like this, which is admittedly very good, but has snuck up on people is better to take in situations where they are a smaller favorite against better competition, thus being undervalued (make sense?).  Having cashed in 65% of their games this season, you have to figure the Hawks will start to regress a bit there and these are the kind of games that tend to make a dent in their backers' bankroll.  8* Sacramento

10* Detroit (6:05 ET):  I think these teams are fairly comparable. Both were playoff hopefuls at the start of the season, but each got off to terrible starts.  Then, both rallied and got themselves back into contention.  However, right now, we find the Hornets and Pistons trending in opposite directions.  Charlotte has won four in a row while Detroit has lost its last five.  As a result, the Hornets find themselves currently involved in a three-way tie for seventh in the Eastern Conference while Detroit is 4.5 games back and also behind Boston and Brooklyn.  Yet, I still have these teams rated even, which means the Pistons should be getting a bit more credit for having the home court advantage here.  I'll lay the points. 

Right before the All-Star Break, the Pistons destroyed the Hornets, in Charlotte by a score of 106-78 as two-point underdogs.  The second half of the season hasn't gone nearly as well so far.  Poor shooting has again doomed them as they're at just 40.8 percent from the field during their losing streak.  However, the irony here is that Charlotte is actually the inferior offensive squad in this matchup, averaging just 95.1 points per game.  The Hornets have been well above that average recently, but how long will that last?  While they did defeat Toronto (at home) on Friday, Charlotte's other recent wins came at the expense of some pretty bad teams.  

Detroit typically struggles in the role of favorite, but the line here is pretty inconsequential.  They are off a three-game road trip and being back home should help the offense as they average 100 PPG here at The Palace.   I like that this team ranks 4th in the league in rebounds per game.  So, theoretically, some of those should be coming on the offensive end and negate the misses.  They also just played Houston last time out, so no shame in losing there.  As for Charlotte, I just can't see Mo Williams continuing to play so well.  Owners of a losing road record overall, the Hornets are 0-2 ATS as road dogs of 3 pts or less as well.  Look for a little "market correction" with this result.  10* Detroit

8* Over Bulls/Spurs (1:05 ET):  Don't look now, but here comes the Spurs. The defending NBA Champs have quietly been moving up my own personal power ratings as they've won four in a row, all by comfortable margins. But this price is a little "too rich" for my tastes, especially b/c the Bulls haven't dropped B2B games in nearly a month, thus coming in off a loss they should be highly motivated.  So instead, we turn to the total and as you know this has not been your usual Tom Thibodeau coached team this year as Chicago is averaging over 101 points per game.  San Antonio has averaged 110 PPG during its current win streak, so the opportunity is there for plenty of points and I like the Over.

Considering where the O/U line has been for the last several Spurs games, this number looks like a value to me.  It's also a value when you consider that the number for the first matchup of these teams this season was 196.  Yes, that game did stay Under the total w/ San Antonio matching a season-low 81 points.  But now they're a healthier team w/ their starting five all in the lineup for every game during the active win streak.  They scored 120 pts in a win over Denver Friday night, which is obviously impressive, but of concern is the fact they allowed 111.  The Nuggets had 60 pts at halftime and shot 52 percent for the game.  Six of their players ended up scoring in double figures. 

Chicago, meanwhile, is obviously dealing with major injuries and is also off the loss to Indiana.  But they were without rest Friday after upsetting Oklahoma City at home Thursday night.  I was on the Bulls there as they won despite no Derrick Rose and no Jimmy Butler.  But fatigue was clearly a factor against the Pacers as the team shot just 36 percent for the game, including 5 of 23 from three-point range, and they scored only 18 points in the fourth quarter (game was tied after the 3Q).  I expect the Bulls to shoot better here obviously, and this is a team that generally seems to be unaffected by injuries.  Thibodeau is always able to coax effort out of his players, but at the same time I've noticed that they've allowed more points per game against Western Conference opponents than those from the East.  San Antonio averages 105.1 PPG at home. 8* Over Bulls/Spurs

10* Minnesota (1:00 ET):  FINAL HOME GAME ALERT! Neither Minnesota nor Penn State are likely NCAA Tournament bound (would have to win Big 10 Tournament), but for one day we should get a solid performance out of the Golden Gophers as they host a PSU team that has dropped six in a row.  To be honest, Minnesota is lucky they're not on a five-game losing streak themselves as their one win during that time came in OT vs. Michigan State, a game that Sparty really blew. Minnesota has been an effective home team this year, going 13-4 SU while averaging an impressive 80 PPG.  Penn State has averaged just over 60 PPG its last five, so I don't see them showing up to compete here.

This is a revenge spot for the Gophers as well.  Back on January 28th, they lost in State College 63-58 as 1.5-pt faves.  They shot just 39% in the loss and attempted only eight free throws for the entire game.  It had to be disappointing considering they held D.J. Newbill to two points, on just five shots, in the first half and still trailed by 10.  Turnovers were the story in the game, for both sides, as Penn State had 16 and Minnesota 15.  Something to keep in mind here is that Penn State has still only won eight times in the last 33 matchups w/ the Golden Gophers, and is 2-12 SU here in Minnesota. 

I'm not sure what's happened to Minnesota down the stretch as six of their first seven Big 10 losses were by five points or less, including the one to Penn State.  They followed that loss to the Nittany Lions with a three-game win streak, including a win at Iowa.   But since then, they've definitely fallen off.  Earlier in the week, they lost here at home to Wisconsin, who came out quite motivated.  Defending the three-point line has been a recent issue for the Gophers, but shouldn't be here as Penn State makes just 32.3 percent of their attempts from behind the arc.  The Nittany Lions have put forth some truly dreadful performances during the course of their own losing streak, such as scoring 86 points COMBINED in B2B losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern last month.  At just 2-8 SU in "true" road games this year, I don't see this regular season finale going too well for them.  10* Minnesota

10* Utah State (9:00 ET):  While Colorado State still has an outside shot at clinching a share of the regular season MWC title, they would need BOTH Boise State and San Diego State to lose and those two squads each play at home today against lesser opposition.  So the Rams should probably resign themselves to the 3-seed for the impending conference tournament.  That being said, Utah State still could "steal" that 3-spot w/ a win here and loss by Wyoming at New Mexico.  So there's a lot on the line in Logan on Senior Night.   Having just had a six-game win streak (also 6-0 ATS) snapped earlier this week in Wyoming, I look for USU to bounce back in a major way tonight.   Last year, the Aggies swept all three meetings w/ the Rams.  This is the first this year.  Take the points.

Colorado State comes in on a four-game win streak.  But all four wins have come at the expense of the bottom of the conference.  This is their second road game in four nights after beating Nevada by 16 on Wednesday.  I realize that the Rams have only five losses this season, but they're only 5-11 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. 

Utah State has been a great home team under HC Stew Morrill and this will be the final game he coaches here in Logan as he's stepping down after the season after 17 years on the bench.  Here at home, his teams have gone 265-32 straight up during his tenure.  That includes an 11-4 mark this year due to them holding opponents to 61.7 points per game.  The Aggies turned in their worst defensive performance of the season earlier this week in Wyoming, but with emotions running high (Seniors and Morrill being honored), expect a bounce back.  Offensively, USU has three players in the top 15 in the conference in points per game and should bounce back from Wednesday's performance as they've averaged 84 PPG the L2 home games.  10* Utah State

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  The T'wolves have garnered a little bit of respect from the linesmakers lately and I have to say that it's well deserved.  Well, they did lose outright (as 7-pt chalk) to Denver the last time we saw them, but that line was pretty ridiculous in retrospect.  Before that, the team had covered three of four.  They've generally been competitive against the top teams from the Western Conference, including games here at home vs. Golden State, Memphis and the Clippers that were all decided by seven points or less.   Here they host a Portland team playing for the first time since losing Wes Matthews for the season.  The Blazers have been admittedly impressive late (five straight wins), but are due for a letdown.  Take the points.

Portland was actually a 10-point favorite the last time they came calling to the Twin Cities, which was all the way back in December, and they ended up losing that game outright by a score of 90-82.  Keep in mind that on the road, the Blazers are basically a .500 team at 15-13 SU/14-14 ATS.  Their problem is defense, or more precisely a lack of it, as they allow an average of 101.2 PPG away from the Moda Center.  Now there has only been one time in the L9 games that the team has allowed more than 100 pts.  Plus, they just held Dallas to 75 pts Thursday night.  But now w/out Matthews, offense could become an issue.  It certainly was the last time they faced the T'wolves as they had only 36 points at halftime. The two sides combined to go 11 for 47 from three-point land in that game. Portland was 10 for 35.   With a few off days looming ahead for the Blazers, they could get caught "peeking."   8* Minnesota

10* Wyoming (8:00 ET):  The famed "Pit" in Albuquerque isn't what it used to be.  That becomes apparent when you consider that New Mexico's current eight-game losing skid includes three defeats here at home.  The last two were both by double digits and while recent matchups indicate this could be a close matchup, I no longer consider the Lobos "favorite material" even if this is Senior Night (team has only two seniors on the roster anyway).  Wyoming, a 22-win team on the bubble, could REALLY use the win here right before the MWC Tournament gets underway next week.   With Larry Nance, Jr now back in the lineup and the team coming off a big win over Utah State earlier in the week, I look for the Cowboys to take care of business in this one.

What Wyoming was able to do to Utah State Wednesday should not go unappreciated.  They won by 23 over an Aggies team that had won six in row.  Nance scored 21 pts as it finally appears he is over his bout w/ mono that caused him to miss a few games and definitely had limited him some the previous two.  Nance also had a big game the last time the Pokes played UNM, scoring 23 pts including the GW dunk in a 63-62 OT win back in January.  Immediately following that loss, New Mexico rebounded with a blowout win over terrible San Jose State. But that was the last time they won a game as they went 0 for February (played eight games). While there have been a fair share of close losses mixed in there for the Lobos, the fact is they were favored in half of those losses. 

Last Saturday, New Mexico lost at Fresno State.  They scored only 55 pts and trailed 30-8 right out of the gate.  Something to keep in mind is that Fresno State is hardly a power in the Mountain West.  Wyoming is a more formidable foe and in the first matchup in Laramie, the Cowboys were able to win despite not even shooting 40 percent for the game.   New Mexico has lost nearly half the games in which they were favored, outright, and I see another being added to the pile tonight.  10* Wyoming

10* Miami (7:35 ET):   For a second consecutive night, I will play against the Kings on the road. Last night, they fell in Orlando, giving up 119 points (in regulation!) to what had been the NBA's lowest scoring team over the past month.  Not a good sign.   As I said in yday's analysis, there has been little sign of improvement thus far under HC George Karl as the team has suffered two 27-point losses already during his short tenure, plus the lack of defense continues to be a major issue.  They've allowed 107+ points in five of their last seven games, including an average of 115.5 the last two.  They allow 106.7 PPG on the road for the season, so with a huge edge in this matchup defensively, the Heat are the play minus the points in this one. 

Miami had an interesting night in its own right Friday.  They found themselves down 22 at the end of the 1Q and by 28 at halftime in Washington before a furious rally in the 2H very nearly brought them the whole way back.  The biggest deficit they faced in the game was 35 pts.  While that all sounds very bad, remember that the team was without Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and of course Chris Bosh.  Goran Dragic also left the game in the 3Q after landing on his hip.  So the fact that the team was still able to storm back and hand Wizards backers the bad beat of the night (line was -6.5) shows me something.  Wade is expected back tonight, with Dragic more likely to join him than Deng.  But the bottom line is that Sacramento is a league-worst 3-17 SU on the road since Thanksgiving and in the second night of back to backs as well.  This season has also seen the Kings go just 7-14 SU/6-14-1 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference.

Allowing just 96.8 PPG, Miami obviously has a very big edge defensively in this matchup.  They held Sacramento to just 83 pts in a road win back in January, continuing a streak of complete domination over the Kings.  In the last 17 meetings between these two franchises here in Miami, the Heat have gone 16-1 SU/14-3 ATS.  Overall, they are 27-7 SU/ATS the past 34.  The Heat, who have struggled to cover the pointspread here at home all season, did post B2B home victories over Phoenix and the Lakers before losing last night on the road.  They are in better form and have more to play for at this juncture of the season.  10* Miami

8* Connecticut (2:00 ET):  UConn took a bad loss Thursday, falling at home to Memphis as 6.5-point favorites, snapping a three-game losing streak. In the past, I've gone over how anything short of a run through the conference tournament will mean the defending Nat'l Champs are sitting home for this year's Big Dance.  But the Huskies came through for me last Sunday, beating a very good SMU team, so I'm willing to back them again here as they seek to avenge an early season loss at home where they were seven-point favorites.  I realize that Temple REALLY cannot afford a loss here as the Owls are currently projected as one the final four teams in the field of 68.  But I'm taking the points anyway as I feel there's a good chance at an upset here.

UConn, despite shooting a woeful 27.8% for the game, still managed to find itself ahead Thursday night.  That was until Memphis' Shaq Goodwin made a short fall-away jumper w/ eight seconds remaining to give his team the win.  Making the loss even more frustrating is that the Huskies had a 22-2 edge in free throw attempts!  What made that such a critical loss was that the top five teams in the American all receive byes in the tournament, and now UConn is in a 5th place tie (w/ Memphis) and loses the tiebreaker. But Memphis plays at Cincinnati tomorrow, so a win here for UConn would be potentially huge as it would put the pressure back on the Tigers and possibly mean a first round bye.

As for Temple, they are coming off B2B easy wins over East Carolina and Houston, both of whom are non-contenders in the AAC.  I have to point to the fact that Temple currently ranks 341st in the country in field goal percentage (.384).  That's out of 351 total teams in Division I.   So while I'm fully anticipating UConn to shoot the ball better here than they did on Thursday, we can pretty much count on Temple to not shoot the ball well. The Owls have thrown up some real stinkers this year (38 points in a loss at Tulsa, anyone?) and to me, that just makes them a very unattractive candidate to be laying points in a matchup such as this.  8* Connecticut.

10* Indiana State (9:30 ET):  Because they swept Illinois State during the regular season, Larry Bird's alma mater was able to slide into the 3-seed for the Missouri Valley Tournament, which takes place (as always) in St. Louis.  This event is considered a two-horse race between the the prohibitive favorites, Wichita State and Northern Iowa, but here in the Quarterfinal Round, the Sycamores at least get a favorable draw w/ Loyola-IL as the opponent.  The Ramblers are another conference foe that ISU swept during the regular season and I'll call for them to make it 3-0 with a win and cover here.

Dating back to January 24th, Indiana State began a predictable pattern that would carry through all the way to the end of the regular season. The would win, then lose one.   Thus, the fact they won the regular season finale, 60-52 at Bradley, doesn't exactly bode well here.   But as mentioned previously, they did beat Loyola twice during the regular season.  The last time was on the road, 79-65 as three-point dogs, as they shot 57.5% for the game including 10 of 19 on three-pointers.  Loyola is not noted for its offensive prowess as they come in averaging just over 61 PPG.  While ISU has not won B2B games since starting MVC play out 5-0, I think they have themselves a favorable draw here.

In fact, the Sycamores are a perfect 5-0 SU vs. the Ramblers the previous three seasons.  Loyola did close its regular season reasonably well, winning five of eight, but every single one of those victories came at the expense of the bottom of the MVC i.e. the four teams that had to compete in the 'play-in' round of the tournament.   The Ramblers have a problem defending w/out fouling.  Also, over the last decade, ISU has won at least one tourney game 9 of the 10 years.  Look for them to advance pretty easily.  10* Indiana State

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET):  Cleveland is definitely moving up the rankings of late, winning 20 of their past 24 games, but I'm not sure they are to the point where they deserve to be favored, on the road, against the only team in the league to have clinched a playoff berth that has BOTH the best SU and ATS records in the league.  That would be Atlanta, who comes into this game on a nice roll themselves as winners of five in a row.  During that streak, the Hawks have beaten both the Rockets and Mavericks here at home, covering the spread as favorites.  Only two times all year has Atlanta been a home dog & the last time we saw it, they beat Golden State here by a score of 124-116. The Hawks are also the ONLY team in the league besides Indiana to have beaten Cleveland twice this season.  Take the points.

Let's also not forget that Cleveland tends to struggle a bit on the road.  They are coming off a big win in Toronto, but they blew all of a 19-point lead in that one before LeBron James took over late.  The Cavs are just 13-18 ATS on the road this season; all of their losses since James returned from his January sabbatical have come away from home.  Even with all the mid-season acquisitions, this remains a below-average defensive team as they allow over 100 PPG on the road. Wednesday in Toronto, they gave up 68 pts in the second half and allowed the Raptors to shoot better than 54% for the game.

While ultimately come playoff-time, I do believe the Cavs will beat the Hawks in the Conference Finals, I like Atlanta's chances here in a one-game format. Let's take a moment to appreciate just what this team has done.  They've won 41 of 48 games and have a 10-game lead over the field in the East.   They are 38-20-2 ATS at the betting window and have lost only four times all season here at home.  They handed Cleveland its worst loss of the season earlier in the year (something the Cavs have also done to them), and I just think the Hawks aren't getting nearly enough credit here.  8* Atlanta

10* Orlando (7:05 ET):  Sacramento favored/in the pick 'em range on the road just seems odd to me. I realize that whatever post-Jacque Vaughn firing bump Orlando got has now disappeared as the Magic have lost four straight and are last in the NBA in scoring over the past month.  But, four-game losing streak aside, they generally play hard and many of their recent losses have been close.  Of course, the Kings are the other team in the league that made a recent coaching change, wisely turning to George Karl, but there has been little in the way of noticeable change.  Sacramento comes off a 112-85 loss in San Antonio Weds night and w/ this being a rare time we can go against them on the road w/out having to lay points, I'll do it.

Orlando won outright in Sacramento earlier in the year, as 6.5-point dogs, 105-96.  Granted, DeMarcus Cousins did not play that day for Sacramento. But clearly, I have these teams rated a lot more evenly than the linesmakers do even w/ Cousins on the floor.  The Kings are not a good road team at all, surrendering an average of 108.1 points their L19 games away from home game & 106.3 PPG for the year.  Wednesday marked their second 27-point defeat already under HC Karl, so again you can see there's been little improvement here since the coaching change.  Perhaps this is the game where Orlando gets back on track offensively. They did shoot better than 50% in the first meeting.

Four of the Magic's six losses since James Borrego took over as HC on an interim basis have been by seven points or less.  Yes, we do need better than that here, a SU win in fact.  But note that it's been better teams than Sacramento that Orlando has been playing tough, such as Phoenix, Miami, Atlanta and Chicago.  Defensively, we've seen a ton of improvement as Wednesday's 105-100 loss to Phoenix marked the first time under Borrego that they allowed 100+ pts to an opponent.  Led by Victor Oladipo's career-best 38 pts, the Magic actually outscored the Suns in three of the four quarters, but one bad 12 minutes of play did them in (outscored 34-17 in 3Q).  Again, this is a good price to go against Sacramento on the road.  10* Orlando

10* Oakland (7:00 ET):  This is a Horizon League Tournament Quarterfinal matchup and I admit Oakland doesn't have much "momentum" after being blown out in its regular season finale (lost by 20) at Green Bay. That cost the Golden Grizzlies the chance at a double-bye into the semis, an opportunity missed that they'll come to regret down the road.  I also understand that their record away from home (just 4-12 SU) this season may scare some off from laying the points in this situation, but they are drawing a favorable matchup here w/ UIC, who just played earlier in the week and the Golden Grizzlies swept them during the regular season.  Lay the points.

This Horizon League Tournament greatly favors the higher seeded teams.  Top-seeded Valparaiso is the host, plus the top two got byes into the semis while the top four automatically advanced this quarterfinal stage.   Meanwhile, UIC had to defeat Wright State for a second time in four days Tuesday in an opening round game.  That game was at home as was the regular season finale vs. the Raiders and the Flames came through with a three-point win (were actually two-point dogs).  UIC trailed by as many as 19 at halftime Tuesday night before a thunderous rally was capped by a Jay Harris' three-pointer w/ 1:13 to play.  Consider that UIC now has five wins over Horizon League teams all season. Three of them were at the expense of Wright State, and another was over last place Youngstown State.

As mentioned earlier, Oakland swept the regular season series from UIC.  Both games were played in February and both were decided by double digits.  In Oakland, the Grizzlies won by 25.  This line falls in between how many they were favored by on the road and at home, so no issue there.  And if you think Oakland's record is poor in road/neutral site games, check out UIC's as the Flames have just two wins off campus all season while averaging less than 60 PPG.  Oakland has cleaned up at the betting window vs. conference opponents, going 12-4 ATS this season and I see them easily advancing to the semifinal round of the tournament here tonight.  10* Oakland

8* Chicago (8:05 ET):   I think that public perception has influenced the market too much when it comes to this matchup of two teams that I have rated very evenly.  While the Bulls are missing several key components, and covering the spread here at home has often been an adventure under HC Thibodeau, they are catching the Thunder w/out rest and still w/out Kevin Durant.  Oklahoma City needed every bit of Russell Westbrook's fourth consecutive triple double last night as a game w/ lowly Philadelphia went to overtime - at home!  I've not been as bullish on OKC as many others and still think the home team deserves to be favored in this one. Take the points.

Quietly, Chicago has won 8 of its last 11 games.  That includes Tuesday, here at home vs. Washington, by a score of 97-92 as 1.5-point dogs.  Despite the win, the Bulls continue to get "disrespected" by the linesmakers.  Lost in the post-Derrick Rose malaise is that Thibodeau has his team playing defense again, its long-time calling card.  Over the L5 games, Chicago is giving up an average of only 89.2 points per game.  That will obviously serve them well here against an unrested foe.  The Bulls still are 19-13 SU at the United Center this year, not a great home record by any means, but still respectable enough that it seems odd they'd be getting points in what shapes up as an even matchup on paper.

Oklahoma City needing overtime to get by Philadelphia cannot be taken as a positive.  They were favored by double digits last night, so it marked just the second time in 11 games that they did not cover.  Predictably, Westbrook has been carrying the load in Durant's absence, but I do not like the dynamic at all as he still takes way too many shots for a point guard.  Duplicating career-highs of 49 points and 16 rebounds from last night obviously is highly unlikely here.  Lost in that tremendous individual performance is that the Thunder actually trailed the Sixers by six points headed into the fourth quarter, again AT HOME!  The other four OKC starters combined for all of 12 points last night!  I played against this team in Portland last week on national TV, and their 14-19 SU road record continues to make them an unattractive candidate to lay points away from home.  10* Chicago

8* Georgia Southern (7:30 ET):  We go to the Sun Belt where we find Georgia Southern off a loss and playing its final home game of the year. So motivation should not be an issue, especially due to the fact they also have revenge for a one-point loss suffered at TX-Arlington all the way back in December in the conference opener.  Oh, by the way, the Eagles (GA Southern) are currently tied for 1st place in the conference (w/ Georgia State, whom they play Saturday, and LA Monroe).  Those two teams play tonight, guaranteeing GA Southern that at best they'll be tied for 1st going into the regular season finale, so a lot is on the line here.

Georgia Southern suffered its worst loss (10 pts) of the year in conference play last Saturday at UL-Lafayette.  Their previous four losses in SBC play had all been by four points or less.  They have not dropped B2B games all season and being back at home tonight should keep that trend alive seeing as they're 12-2 SU for the year at Hanner Fielhouse, where they're holding opponents to just 58.1 points per game.   They did not shoot the ball well last time out (just 34.9 percent) and missed their final eight FG attempts after trailing by only three w/ 2:47 to go.  I anticipate we'll see much better here as the Eagles averaged 78.5 points their previous two games, and for the year are at 70.4 PPG. 

The first matchup w/ TX-Arlington saw another really bad shooting night from GA Southern (35.5%), including 5 of 26 from three-point range. The Eagles trailed by double digits at halftime, but still rallied and actually had the lead w/ 14 seconds remaining before the GW layup was made by the Mavericks.  Georgia Southern's Jelani Hewett, scored just six points in that game on 1 of 11 shooting, a far cry from the senior's season average of 18.2 PPG average.   TX-Arlington, who is in the middle of the pack in the SBC, comes in off a win in their own home finale, 82-73 over Arkansas Little Rock.  While they've fared quite well as an underdog much of the year, they were blown out in their visit to Georgia State, so there is precedent for a lopsided affair here.  8* Georgia Southern

10* Arkansas (7:00 ET):  The Razorbacks are an extraordinarily high variance team, one that could potentially make a run in the NCAA Tournament or be "one and done."   They have impressive road wins this year over the likes of SMU, Ole Miss and Georgia, so while I've been primarily focusing on home teams this time of the year in College Hoops, I think they are a solid value tonight laying a small number at South Carolina.  The Gamecocks have really struggled at the betting window in SEC play, going a pitiful 3-13 ATS, but we're catching them off a rare win/cover, that coming at the expense of lowly Mississippi State on Saturday in an 85-68 win as 8.5-point chalk.  Arkansas has failed to cover four in a row, including a loss at Kentucky over the weekend, but before that had won seven straight. Further illustrating that high variance, the Hogs had covered five in a row before the current 4-game ATS slide. I'll lay the points here in a game they cannot afford to drop.

Last month in Fayetteville, the Razorbacks destroyed the Gamecocks 75-55 as eight-point favorites.  Neither team shot well, but South Carolina was particularly brutal at 27.9 percent for the game, including 5 for 24 from three-point range.  Sadly for Frank Martin's team, poor shooting has become the norm as the Gamecocks are last in the conference w/ a 40.1 FG percentage.  However, it is turnovers that will likely determine the outcome of this matchup.  Arkansas forces the most giveaways in the entire SEC (16.4 per game) and in the first matchup scored 21 pts off 20 TO's.  For the sake of comparison, South Carolina scored just 1 pt off turnovers.  The Gamecocks had also been held to 65 pts or less total in seven straight before Saturday's "offensive explosion" vs. Mississippi State.

I'll excuse what happened to Arkansas over the weekend as #1 Kentucky is playing better than ever right now. It is a tad bit concerning that three of their previous five road games before that had been decided by one point.  But I just can't see the kind of dramatic swing South Carolina needs taking place here.  The Gamecocks aren't a deep team, plus they have only one senior on the roster that they will be honoring. 10* Arkansas

8* UAB (7:00 ET):  Again, I've been mainly focusing on home teams recently in College Hoops, but this is another instance of a road team being too tempting at the short price.  Yes, UAB is off a wild 3OT affair at home vs. Middle Tennessee, winning 100-95, but here they'll be facing an awful Florida Atlantic squad.  The host Owls are just 1-15 SU in C-USA play and this won't be their final game at home either; that comes Saturday vs. Middle Tennessee.  UAB won this season's first matchup, by nine at home, and looking to preserve their second place status in the conference they are the play tonight. 

Florida Atlantic has not won in a very long time, January 17th to be exact.  I played against them Saturday, at Marshall, the last team they beat. The end result (for the Owls) was a 79-63 loss as 4.5-point dogs.  Again, I'm not sure if the linesmakers simply aren't paying attention, but for FAU to be getting this much "respect" at the betting window seems odd.  This will now be the fifth time in the last six games that they've either been favored (!) or gotten five points or fewer.  Again, this is a team that has lost its last 11 games.  Saturday at Marshall, the Owls actually did lead at halftime, but were outscored 42-22 over the game's final 20 minutes and the Thundering Herd shot nearly 60 percent from the field for the game. It's been that kind of season for 1st year HC Michael Curry, whose NBA experience obviously has yet to translate to the college level. 

At the other end of the conference spectrum, we have UAB, winners of three straight.  The Blazers have "cleaned up" in conference play as well, going 13-3 against the spread.  I understand the potential apprehension here as the team has just three wins off-campus all season and is laying points, but this is the last place team in the conference they'll be playing here.  The first matchup saw UAB pull away late, but of note is that they attempted only nine three-pointers in that contests, making four. Despite its high standing in the conference, UAB is not considered a tourney team right now, so improving their resume and seeding is paramount down the stretch. 8* UAB

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): This is a big game in the Western Conference, matching up two potential first round playoff opponents.  If they were to hold on and win the Northwest Division, Portland would be guaranteed a no worse than a top four seed, but not home court advantage if the 5-seed were to finish w/ a better overall record.  That's what makes tonight so important for both teams as the Clippers are sitting in that 5th position, just one-half game off the Blazers' record.  Both teams enter in riding three-game win streaks, but I feel the linesmakers are drastically underselling the Clips' homecourt advantage.  Lay the short number in this one. 

To me, Los Angeles is the best team in the West not named "Golden State."  They are the only team in the league, besides Golden State and Atlanta, to be outscoring its opponents by a margin greater than six points per game on the season.  Here at home, they're outscoring teams by nine points per game.  Portland, basically a .500 team on the road, is allowing 101.5 PPG in such contests, which is way above what they give up at home.  That's going to be a problem here against a team that averages more than 107 PPG at home.  By the way, the Clips have gone 7-3 SU w/out Blake Griffin while still outscoring teams by 6.6 pts per 100 possessions.  So, they basically have not missed a beat. 

The Clippers have also fared quite well in the past against the Blazers.  They've taken both previous matchups this season and while both wins came by six points or less, what we tend to see when these two teams face off is Chris Paul outplaying Damian Lillard in the battle of point guards.  Paul is 5-1 SU all-time vs. Lillard w/ a significantly better assist to turnover ratio in those matchups.  Portland has lost the last seven times it has faced the Clippers on the road and is just 2-8 SU its L10 on the road overall.   I'll gladly back the better team at home, laying only a small number. 10* LA Clippers

8* Golden State (10:35 ET):  The Warriors continue to rate as the best team in the league according to my own personal rankings, but they have struggled some of late, including a 110-108 outright loss in Brooklyn two nights ago.  That was the tail end of a six-game East Coast swing and while I'm typically leery of teams returning home after a long trip like that, even laying a big number I think Golden State is the play here.  They face a Milwaukee team that I played against last night.  This will be the Bucks' fourth straight game out West, over a six-day span, and what was once one of the best bets in the NBA has regressed since the All-Star Break, going 1-6 ATS.  I smell a blowout here.

Golden State doesn't lose often, but when they do, we typically see them bounce back w/ a strong performance their next time out. Case in point was an impressive 113-89 beatdown of Toronto (without rest) Friday, the night after losing in Cleveland.   There have only been three times all year where the Warriors have dropped B2B games, but let's be honest, with the line as large as it is here, the SU result should be something taken for granted.  Therefore, we turn our attention the margin of victory required as I'll note Golden State is outscoring visiting teams by a whopping 15.8 points per game this season thanks to averaging 114.6 PPG.   Klay Thompson, who had an off-night in Brooklyn, should see his numbers return to previous form here. 

Milwaukee, meanwhile, is in a bad way.  They just lost outright to a Denver team that fired its coach earlier in the day and that was after losses to the Lakers and Utah.  So after falling to three of the West's non-playoff teams, now they take a big step up in class to face the best the Conference has to offer.  Overall, the Bucks have covered just 2 of their last 10 games. This regression was somewhat predictable given the remarkable success they had achieved at the betting window early in the season.  They clearly are nowhere near the level of the Warriors and I think it certainly bears mentioning that Golden State has won all 10 games straight up in which they've been favored by at least 12.5 pts, also going 6-3-1 ATS.  8* Golden State

10* Illinois (10:00 ET):  It's a late night start in Champaign and with the Seniors being honored, I look for a fever pitch.  It's not just that the host Illini has for motivation, however.  John Groce's team currently finds itself squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble and can't afford a loss, or really even a close win, here.  Coming into the day, ESPN's Joe Lunardi projects them to be among the "first four out," a dreaded status that no team wants.  The Illini had lost three in a row prior to turning things around w/ an 86-60 beatdown of Northwestern this past weekend and I think the success there "carries over" into tonight where they'll host a disappointing Nebraska team that is in a very bad way right now. 

Nebraska's NCAA Tournament hopes completely hinge on the Big 10 Tournament.  So I can't see the Cornhuskers being able to even come close to matching Illinois' intensity in this spot.  After suffering a bad 81-57 loss at Ohio State last Thursday, Nebraska has now dropped six in a row and eight of its last nine.  It's been a very disappointing season in Lincoln and things have only gotten progressively worse.  In the last two games, the 'Huskers have been outscored by a combined 52 points and they've lost by double digit margins in seven of their last eight defeats.  It goes w/out saying that this has been a dreadful road team all year, as they are 1-10 SU in "true" roadies, 2-8 ATS, and averaging just 56.3 PPG in such contests.  They are just 5-15 ATS vs. teams with a winning record to boot. 

Illinois is a very good home team.  They've gone 13-2 straight up in Champaign and outscored opponents on average by about 18 points per game.  In the past, they've done quite well in this price range, going 24-11 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 pts, including a perfect 4 for their last 4 and 2-0 ATS this season.  The Illini also have legit revenge in this one for a 10-point loss suffered back in January.  They shot just 27.3% from the field in that game, something that won't be repeated here.  At home, they're better than 40 percent from behind the three-point line.  Lay the points.  10* Illinois

10* Memphis (8:05 ET):  James Harden will be back in the Rockets' lineup tonight, but the rest of the team is coming off a brutal loss last night in Atlanta (which I was on the right side of!), where they blew a 14-point halftime lead.   They were outscored 32-15 in the final 12 minutes.  It was clear as they fell apart down the stretch that they missed Harden, particularly his ability to get to the free throw line.  Of course, Memphis did not have a good Tuesday either as they lost at home to the suddenly surging Utah Jazz. But of the two teams here, I have the Grizzlies rated higher, which means taking points they are a good value.  They're 8-5 ATS as dogs this season, winning seven of those games straight up.  Take the points.

This will be the fourth meeting of the year between these division rivals, who enter Wednesday separated by only 1.5 games in the battle for first place in the Southwest.  Houston has taken two of the first three, including the only previous one here at home, where they were actually five-point dogs back in December.  The market clearly had that matchup priced incorrectly, but I think the swing for this one is far too great.  The Rockets' three wins prior to last night's game had all been by five points or less and they were somewhat fortunate to get by Cleveland in overtime Sunday as LeBron James had an uncharacteristically awful afternoon at the free throw line.  I'm not as high on this team as some others. 

Memphis, meanwhile, has admittedly failed to cover four in a row.  Last night was not a good performance, but they were without Tony Allen, Zach Randolph and Beno Udrih.  Allen is guaranteed to be back tonight and he will be the one guarding Harden.  Randolph's presence would be huge for the Grizzlies, especially considering their recent offensive woes, but without him the team still took Houston to OT in the last matchup.  On the defensive end is where Memphis will win this one as Houston has allowed 100+ pts in nine of its last 11 games.   In division games this season, the Grizzlies have averaged a surprising 104.1 PPG, so look for them to come in and "steal" this one.  10* Memphis

8* Louisville (7:00 ET):  Both of these teams figure to be high seeds in the NCAA Tournament, provided neither falls apart between now and then.  It hasn't always been pretty, but Louisville comes into tonight on a three-game win streak.  That was preceded by a stretch where they lost three of four and two of their recent wins have come by two points or less. But then there was the Cardinals' last time out, an 81-59 beatdown of Florida State on the road.  HC Rick Pitino called it "probably the best performance of the season" from his team. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is coming off a home loss to Syracuse and w/ a double-bye in the ACC Tourney already locked up, I don't expect much from them tonight. Lay the points.

With North Carolina winning last night, L'ville needs to win at least one of its last two games (both at home) and hope UNC loses its regular season finale (also at home) to Duke, in order to earn itself a double bye in the ACC Tourney (those go to the top four teams).  As mentioned before, they took a major step in the right direction w/ the big win at FSU over the weekend. Still in the midst of the Chris Jones controversy, five Cardinals scored in double figures. Offensively, this team does struggle at times, but Saturday they had a season-high 32 pts off turnovers. That led to their most points in any game in February.   The Cards have generally taken care of business in games which they were favored, going 22-3 SU. Note the small number they're laying here.

Notre Dame in many ways is the opposite of Louisville.  The Fighting Irish struggle more on the defensive end.  Louisville allows only 54.4 points per game at home and I feel that could very well be the difference maker Wednesday night.  We saw what happened when the Irish go cold last Tuesday as they lost in South Bend to an unranked Syracuse team, whose zone held them to 34.7 percent from the floor.  Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS off its previous three conference losses, and while they do come in w/ extra rest, I see L'ville taking this first ever matchup as ACC rivals.  8* Louisville

10* Denver (9:05 ET):  The Nuggets are in a terrible way right now and on a personal note, they really let me down Sunday night when they came up short hosting New Orleans, who was w/out Anthony Davis, Jrue Holliday and Ryan Anderson.  Taking 5.5 points, they entered the fourth quarter tied w/ the Pelicans, but fell apart from there and lost the game by a final score of 99-92.  Overall, it was Denver's sixth straight loss and fifth straight time they failed to cover.  They've now lost 12 of 13 straight up.  Tonight, they find themselves in the same price range as Sunday against a Milwaukee team that I rate comparably to New Orleans. It may not have worked out last time, but I'll take the points again, looking for the Nuggets to at least keep it close. 

Milwaukee isn't playing well either right now as they've lost four of five and have been even worse at the betting window, failing to cover 9 of their last 11 games. This was somewhat predictable given that the Bucks were covering at a 67% rate before the Break, which is unsustainable.  So I'm not surprised in the least to see them start to "give some back."  Remember that New Orleans came into its matchup w/ Denver on a four-game SU/ATS win streak, which is a far cry from what the Bucks have done lately.  They scored only 75 pts in a loss at Utah Saturday night, which was preceded by a loss to the Lakers. Their only win over the five games came at the expense of lowly Philadelphia.

This is a revenge spot for Denver, who lost to Milwaukee in the first game after the Break by a score of 89-81.  That was the last game the Nuggets covered as they were 8.5-point dogs.  After going 2-10-1 ATS its last 13, Denver is now the only team in the league to be below 40% ATS for the year.  As we've been seeing w/ Milwaukee, a little "market correction" is in order here.  The Nuggets have lost 10 straight home games, which is astounding when you consider that the Pepsi Center was one of the last vestiges of an actual home court advantage in this league. The Bucks have averaged less than 80 PPG on 37 percent shooting their last three games, so they're not a good candidate to be laying points.  Starting PG Ty Lawson will be back in the lineup tonight for the Nuggets, which makes a difference. 10* Denver

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET):  It seems to me that the linesmakers aren't really taking into account James Harden's absence from the Houston lineup here.  My own personal power ratings say this should be the line if Harden was IN the lineup, so w/out their best player, it's difficult to make a case for the Rockets here.  Houston picked up a big win Sunday, beating Cleveland in overtime, but was very fortunate in that LeBron James had a dreadful afternoon from the FT line, plus the Cavs were w/out Kyrie Irving.  Atlanta has continued to maintain the league's best ATS record, currently 38-19-2 overall.  I played against them in their last game, which was  on the road, but here at home (where they're 27-4 SU), they're a lot easier to endorse.  Lay the points.

Without Harden, the Rockets obviously become a lot less dynamic.  I figure with that being the focus, few will even bother to mention the continued of Dwight Howard, not like that even matters any more.  But the loss of Harden is huge considering no player in this league produces more points per game off drives to the hoop than he does.  That's 27.1 PPG overall (also #1 in the league) that Houston is going to have to find a way to make up.  This is also the first game that Harden will have missed all season.  Defensively, while Houston has improved as a team this year, they still allow 103.9 PPG on the road. That's another problem to consider.

Atlanta not only has the best spread record in the league, but they have been particularly good when matched up w/ a fellow .500 or better opponent. They've won 21 of 29 such games straight up (league-best) and are an incredible 22-5-2 ATS.  This includes a win in Houston back in December, as five-point dogs, 104-97.  The Rockets are just 1-5 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home defeat and though they come into tonight on a five-game win streak, all of those were at home and the last three were all by five points or less.   Not having Harden will be too much to overcome tonight against the team w/ the best record in the East and on the injury front its looking like the Hawks WILL have PG Jeff Teague in the lineup.  8* Atlanta

10* Butler (7:00 ET):  This is actually the THIRD meeting this season between these Big East foes as they met early in the year in Atlantis w/ Butler coming out on top 64-58 as 3.5-pt dogs.  Georgetown won the rematch, at home, by a score of 61-59 but failed to cover the four-point spread.  Now finally getting the Hoyas at Hinkle Fieldhouse, I say its advantage Butler, who is 13-2 SU at home this year and holding visitors to an average of just 57.3 points per game.  The Bulldogs are off B2B victories and have won eight of 10 overall, the only losses coming by three to Villanova and on the road to Xavier. They're currently in second place in the Big East and can assure themselves of no worse than that finish in the standings w/ a win tonight. Lay the short number. 

Meanwhile, Georgetown lost over the weekend, falling 81-70 at St. John's.  That was the most points they've allowed in a regulation contest all year.  G'town did not shoot the ball well and as a result fell behind by as many as 15 points in the second half.  Despite playing in the Big East, this will only be the second road game vs. a ranked opponent all season for the Hoyas.  The first did not go well at all as they were blown out by Villanova.  Keep in mind that had it not been for a three-pointer w/ just over five seconds remaining in the second meeting w/ Butler, G'town would be 0-2 this year vs. the Bulldogs.  Butler also averages over 70 PPG, key here, because the Hoyas have a losing record in games where they allow more than 63 points. 

It was a game of runs for Butler on Saturday vs. Depaul as they led by 10 early only to find themselves down by six in the second half.  They ended up winning by 14.  That was their second straight double-digit win as last Wednesday, they destroyed Marquette by 21 here at home.   The Bulldogs' average MOV here at home this year is an impressive 18.4 points per game.  This is their final home game of the year as well, which means they're honoring the seniors, so look for an inspired effort here.  10* Butler

8* Alabama (7:00 ET):  It's yet another FINAL HOME GAME ALERT and w/ neither 'Bama nor Ole Miss coming into this one in top form, my natural inclination is to back the host laying a small number.  The Crimson Tide are off a loss, 73-66 at Vanderbilt, over the weekend.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss has lost B2B games, first to Georgia and then to LSU, putting a real damper on the Rebels' NCAA Tournament prospects.  Ole Miss is a very strong 9-2 ATS in road games as well as 8-2 ATS as dogs this year, but getting far too much respect from the linesmakers considering Alabama is 13-4 SU in Tuscaloosa this season while giving up just 58.9 points per game. 

Over its last seven games, Bama has fallen into a rather predictable pattern as they lose one and then win one.  I'm obviously expecting that pattern to continue here tonight.  What's interesting is that with the line having been six points or less in each of those previous seven contests, the Tide have failed to cover in all four SU losses and cashed in every one of the SU wins.  They did suffer a couple outright losses here at home during that time, to Vanderbilt and Georgia (the latter coming by one point in OT), but did win their last time here, 59-51 as four-point chalk over South Carolina.  Playing at Vandy on Saturday, they lost by seven after the Commodores exploded for 46 pts in the second half and made 11 three-pointers for the game.  The Tide did lead at the break by double digits. 

Ole Miss is off a 10-point loss at LSU Saturday.  They too had a rough go of it defensively after halftime, allowing 50 points to the Tigers over the course of the final 20 minutes.  The Rebels themselves did not shoot the ball well and also turned it over 17 times.  Both are correctable issues, but it's now three straight games that they've been below 39 percent from the field as well as four of the last five.  This is the only regular season matchup between the teams, but Bama has a little payback on its mind from a 12-point loss suffered LY in Oxford, which was the third straight time the home team won in this SEC rivalry.  8* Alabama

8* Iowa State (9:00 ET):   After going 0-2 last week, Iowa State badly needs to win tonight in Ames against Big 12 rival Oklahoma.  Fortunately for the, the Sooners haven't been doing a great job at the betting window of late, failing to cover the spread in four straight.  OU was favored in all four of those games, winning the last three, but they predictably are pretty shaky on the road (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) plus only 2-4 SU and ATS as dogs.  Last week saw ISU fall for the first time at home all season, to a very good Baylor team, and follow that up w/ an outright loss (as 3.5-pt chalk) at Kansas State Saturday.  I feel they'll be the more desperate side Monday night and I can't see the Cyclones losing again at home. Lay the points.

Iowa State has legit revenge here for a 94-83 loss suffered in Norman last month.  Though the Cyclones were 14 of 29 from three-point range in that game, Oklahoma shot better than 50% overall.  I expect a much better effort on the offensive end tonight from Fred Hoiberg's team, which was leading the conference at 79.8 PPG on 48.6% shooting, before last week's two subpar efforts.  Going back to last season, ISU had actually won 21 straight on its home court before losing to Baylor last Monday.  What happened Saturday in Manhattan was even more illogical as they allowed Kansas State to close the game on a 22-9 run.  While the Cyclones were swept by Baylor, they did quite well in their previous revenge spot, that being a 75-38 blowout of Texas Tech here at the Hilton Coliseum. 

Oklahoma, also part of the big log-jam a top the Big 12, is off three straight close wins.  Overall, they've won eight of nine.  Saturday at home vs. TCU, they needed to rally back from a 38-26 halftime deficit.  This after a similar comeback was needed vs. Texas and they needed OT to get by Texas Tech.  While laying points in a matchup of seemingly even teams isn't necessarily ideal, Iowa State is certainly in an ideal price range here as they've won 10 in a row when favored between -3.5 and -6, covering the spread in eight of those games.  8* Iowa State

10* Virginia Tech (9:00 ET):  You're not likely to find either of these teams in the postseason, but I feel the host Hokies are the more likely team to treat this as an important game as they have legit revenge for a bad loss suffered in Chesnut Hill earlier in the year, plus they are catching Boston College off an outright upset of NC State over the weekend.  Virginia Tech has now lost five straight and 15 of 17, but I think we can excuse the last two defeats as they were against Duke and Virginia, both of whom are obviously ranked in the top five.  Here in Blacksburg, they took Duke to OT, so it wasn't surprising to see them struggle over the weekend at Virginia (who they played very tough here earlier in the year).  I smell a rare win for the Hokies Monday night. 

Va Tech was destroyed in the first matchup, losing 76-52 as six-point underdogs.  They trailed by 13 at the half and shot a measly 34% for the game.  I have to admit that it's pretty rare to see the Hokies favored as that's happened only four times previously this season, but the line here is pretty inconsequential as a SU win almost certainly = an ATS win.  BC is just 2-10 SU away from Chesnut Hill, including 1-7 in "true" road games.  Prior to the upset of NC State on Saturday, the Eagles had lost nine in a row themselves.  So its not exactly like their in fine form either.  Simply put, if there's one ACC game that the Hokies "should" win this year, it's this one.

Boston College's performance Saturday was pretty stunning as they shot 56.8% for the game and had a 17-point lead by halftime.  But it should be pointed out that they caught the Wolfpack in a favorable situation, off their own upset of North Carolina the game prior.  NC State is now 1-7 SU off its last eight regular season victories over the Tar Heels.  Remember that the Eagles are a team that has not won B2B games since mid-December, so not getting many points here, it's difficult to make any kind of case for them.   Virginia Tech is 7-1 ATS this season when off three or more straight losses and they're also 4-0 ATS when playing w/ just one day's rest. 10* Virginia Tech

8* Dallas (8:35 ET):  New Orleans has surprisingly excelled in the second of back to backs all year long, going 11-2 ATS in that situation.  But after personally being on the wrong end of their fifth straight win and cover, last night in Denver, I don't see things going the Pelicans way tonight against what will likely be an angry Mavs team.  Making what New Orleans is doing right now all the more head-scratching is the fact they've been w/out Anthony Davis for the entire run.  But the level of competition somewhat "explains away" the results as w/ the exception of a struggling Toronto team they've played all sub-.500 foes during the win streak.  Dallas, off B2B losses, is an outstanding home team w/ a 39-22 overall SU record. Lay the points.

Last night in Denver, the Pelicans took control in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Nuggets by seven, which was the final margin. But I can't see this level of play from them continuing.  This is a team that previously had only one win streak all year of more than two games.  They're still just 12-17 SU on the road, and remember not only are they w/out Davis, but two of their other top four scorers as well, those being starting PG Jrue Holliday and top reserve Ryan Anderson.   This step up in class would be difficult under normal circumstances for the Pelicans, but taking it w/out rest is going to be a major problem.

Dallas has lost B2B games, leading many to question the Rajon Rondo "experiment." But back at home, they should be just fine here.  They're averaging 106.2 points per game at the American Airlines Center and I think long overdue for an offensive explosion. Not only will the Mavs be motivated by the B2B losses, but they also lost the last matchup with New Orleans, which took place in January.  That makes this a revenge spot.  Though still without Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons, that's not as big of a loss as New Orleans being without Davis, Holliday and Anderson as those three account for over 50% of the Pelicans scoring.  I just can't see the unrested road team keeping up in this one.  8* Dallas

10* Under Warriors/Nets (7:35 ET):  For Golden State, tonight marks the end of a six-game East Coast swing, so fatigue could very well be a factor.  Thus far, we've seen the Under go 4-1, including a game I played that way, Friday's 113-89 win over Toronto.  That was followed by a 106-101 win over Boston last night, another Under.  Overall, the Under is 8-1 the Warriors' last nine games.  Tonight they play a Brooklyn team known for its low-scoring affairs that is coming off a long-road trip of its own.  The Nets just played eight straight on the road and are 8-3 Under L11 games overall. That's going against totals consistently lower than this one, so to me there's only one way to play tonight's matchup.  Take the Under.

These teams met early in the season and not surprisingly it was Golden State winning, by a score of 107-99.  That one stayed Under a higher total than we have here as Brooklyn missed 16 of 19 attempts from behind the three-point line.   The Nets are 14-9 Under vs. the West overall, including recent games vs. Houston, Dallas and Denver, high-scoring teams just like the Warriors.  Brooklyn ranks near the bottom of the league at 96.3 points per game, yet has actually been above 100 in three of its past five games.  So their recent level of scoring is due to regress.  They shot the ball very well Saturday in Dallas (51.7% for the game), which is well above their normal average.

Golden State has gone Under six of the last seven times it has faced a team w/ a losing record.  Defensively, I'm actually not that worried for tonight from their perspective as they last time they were in the second game of back to backs was Friday when they held Toronto to just 89 points.  Here, it is unlikely that Nets PG Jarrett Jack will make all 10 of his FG attempts as he did in the prior matchup.  On offense though, I expect the Warriors to have some issues. They expended a lot of energy in coming back from a 26-point deficit last night in Boston and we already know that they average about eight points less per game on the road than they do at home.   10* Under Warriors/Nets

10* Denver (8:05 ET):  I fully realize that the Nuggets are in a terrible way right now.  They've lost five straight games as well as 11 of 12 (only win over the Lakers).  Due to injuries, the poor coaching of Brian Shaw and other factors too numerous to run through in this space, this team has really devolved into one of the worst in the entire league. Consider that they have lost four in a row by double digits and the last three have been here at home. (Work with me here!).  But tonight they look to be a decent bargain, plus the points, as New Orleans comes calling.  While the Pelicans have been trending in the opposite direction of late, they were a fortunate winner last time out, and are 0-5 SU/ATS their last five visits to the Pepsi Center.

Remember that New Orleans is still w/out Anthony Davis.  They also are without two other key players, starting PG Jrue Holliday and forward Ryan Anderson, both of whom rank among the top four in scoring on the team.  Of course, the Pelicans are unlikely to draw any sympathy from the Nuggets, whose locker room currently resembles a MASH unit.  The Pelicans being without three of their top four scorers makes what they've done of late all the more impressive as they've won four in a row, all as underdogs.  But now that they are laying points, on the road, they become far less appealing.  The team is 0-4 ATS this season when laying between 3.5 and 6 points away from home. 

All four of the Pelicans' wins during the current streak have been against Eastern Conference teams.  Two were against Miami and the last three were all decided by six points or fewer.   Friday, at home vs. the Heat, they rallied back from a nine-point deficit entering the fourth quarter for a 104-102 win.  The last three Pelicans games have all come at home.  They're just 11-17 SU on the road, so again they are not a good candidate to be laying points here.  My own personal power ratings indicate this line should be several points lower and in fact the last time New Orleans laid this many points in a road game, I played against them and they lost outright in Orlando.  Take the points here in what's a classic case of the market overreacting to recent results. 10* Denver

10* Stanford (7:00 ET):  After suffering through a 1-4 SU stretch (also went 0-5 ATS), Stanford has rallied back to take the first two of this three-game home stand and tonight will be the final game in Palo Alto ever for the seniors.  I admit that I was a bit surprised when I saw they were were favored by this many points over an Oregon team that is one spot above them in the Pac 12 standings.  But this will be the fourth time during the conference schedule that the Ducks have had to play B2B road games and they've yet to sweep any pair.  The last time they followed a win at USC w/ a loss at UCLA.  They've got a little more time in between games this time, but this is a place they're just 4-12 ATS their L16 visits.  I'll lay the points.

Stanford's defense at home compared to Oregon's lack of it on the road is a big key for me in handicapping this matchup.  The Cardinal allow only 59.5 PPG here in Palo Alto, a big reason why they've won 13-2 SU here.  Meanwhile, Oregon allows 78.3 PPG away from home and that's played a significant role in their losing road record.  Stanford is off a truly dominant performance as they beat Oregon State 75-48 Thursday.  They actually trailed at the break before outscoring the Beavers 47-18 after halftime! However, this is still a "bubble team" that needs to keep winning.  A loss here might make winning the conference tournament a necessity.  

Stanford will wrap up its regular season with a pair of road games against the Arizona schools.  Winning in Tucson in particular seems challenging, so that makes winning here all the more imperative.  Oregon was kind to me last Sunday, beating Utah outright.  But that was in Eugene.  With their defensive issues, I don't see a repeat of Wednesday when they held Cal to just 69 points.  10* Stanford

10* Monmouth (4:30 ET):  Final home game alert! This is the regular season finale for both MAAC teams and w/ a win Monmouth would guarantee itself no worse than a top four seed in the upcoming conference tournament.  If by some chance, Manhattan were to lose at home vs. Quinnipiac, they could finish third.  But first, the Hawks must beat Siena. That shouldn't be too difficult considering they've already done that, on the road, as two-point underdogs two weeks ago.  That started a major slide for Siena, who comes into Sunday on a four-game slide, both SU and ATS.  Three of those losses were at home and overall the Saints have dropped eight of their last 10 games.  Look for Monmouth to roll in this one.

Monmouth, surprisingly, is just 7-7 SU on the road.  They just lost here Thursday, as three-point chalk, to Rider.  Neither team shot well in that one and the final result meant the Hawks split their four games this season against the top two teams in the MAAC. After winning the first matchups against both Iona and Rider, Monmouth just lost to each in their last two games.  But the two losses were by only four total points and before that the Hawks had won four in a row.  They clearly are the team in better form here and with it being Senior Day, they should be more motivated side, especially after HC King Rice called out his upperclassman after the loss Thursday.

Siena is not a good team defensively.  In the first matchup between these teams, Monmouth achieved its second highest point total of the season.  That shouldn't be too much of a surprise given that Siena allows the most points per game in the MAAC (75.0) and they are next to last in both overall (46.5) and 3-point field goal percentage (37.7).  Monmouth shot 52.9 percent overall in that first meeting, including 6 of 12 from three-point range.  Making Siena's task even tougher here is that they very well could be w/out leading scorer Rob Poole, who is dealing w/ an injured right ankle.  HC Jimmy Patsos has already come out and said he's likely to rest Poole for the conference tournament.  10* Monmouth

8* Connecticut (2:00 ET):  Anything short of winning the AAC Tourney means UConn will not even get a shot at defending last year's National Championship this March.  The Huskies are only 16-11 straight up this year and have generally been a disaster at the betting window where they are 9-15 ATS for the year, including 3-10 their last 13.  Today, they are virtually a pick 'em against the team that currently leads the American, that being Larry Brown's SMU Mustangs, who are winners of five straight. Actually, SMU is tied for the conference lead w/ what I feel is a vastly inferior Tulsa team and that's who the Mustangs will conclude their regular season against next Sunday. Can you say "look ahead?" 

SMU averages only 64 points per game on the road.  This will be their second away game in four days after they won in Memphis on Thursday, doing so by a final score of 66-57 as 2.5-point chalk.  But the last time the Mustangs found themselves in this situation, they failed to cover laying 11 against a poor Houston squad. Not coincidentally, that game marked the lone time over the last five games that SMU failed to cover.  They did follow that ATS loss up w/ a win and cover at the expense of these Huskies, taking the game 73-55 as 6.5-point favorites. But that game took place in Moody Coliseum where SMU rarely loses.  Thursday's game at Memphis was a lot closer than the final score indicates and the Mustangs benefited from their opponents attempting only seven free throws the entire game.

UConn has won B2B games coming into today and five of the last seven. Four of those wins have come at the expense of East Carolina and Tulane, but still you have to like the kind of defense the Huskies are playing as they've allowed 34.9 percent shooting during the win streak.  Here at home, they allow just 55.7 PPG.   With SMU playing for a regular season championship its next time out and UConn in full desperation mode, I feel the defending Nat'l Champs will come out as the more motivated side Sunday afternoon.  8* Connecticut

8* UNLV (8:00 ET):   This isn't the final home game for UNLV, but it is a bounce back situation after I played against them earlier in the week and they lost 83-65 at Utah State.  Dave Rice's Rebels definitely have taken a step back this year, but as I've been doing throughout this three-game report, I'll cite both the revenge angle and homecourt as key factors in handicapping this matchup.  This is a rematch of the Mountain West opener for both squads, won by Wyoming 76-71 back on New Year's Eve.  But here in Vegas, I expect things to go differently as the visiting Cowboys are averaging a weak 54.9 points per game away from Laramie.  Lay the short number in this one.

In that first matchup, UNLV actually had itself a 37-32 halftime lead.  Both teams ended up shooting the ball extraordinarily well, in particular UNLV, who was better than 55 percent from the field.  It's pretty tough to shoot that well on the road and not come away with the victory, but making only seven free throws in the game really hurt.  Also, it was a terrible spot for the Rebels as they had a look ahead to Kansas four days later, plus they had recently played both Utah and Arizona.  Wyoming is also a strong home team.  But here at the Thomas & Mack Center, the Cowboys have lost 18 of their previous 20 visits. Considering that, this is a small number we can get away w/ laying.

Wyoming is off a home loss Weds night to Fresno State.  There's no way to sugarcoat that one; it's simply an awful loss that dropped the Cowboys into a fourth place tie in the MWC w/ Utah State.  Even more discouraging is the fact that game vs. Fresno State marked the return of Larry Nance Jr to the lineup after he (their leading scorer) had missed the previous four games w/ mono.  During that time, the team went just 2-2 and the two wins came against the two weak links of the conference, Nevada and San Jose State.  These teams have experienced drastically difference results at the betting window of late w/ UNLV 6-2 ATS its last eight and Wyoming 2-7 ATS its last nine.  8* UNLV

10* Miami (7:35 ET):   Atlanta is nine games clear of the rest of the Eastern Conference, so how much you believe in this team is irrelevant for now because they will be the top seed going into the playoffs. After things looked ugly in their first game after the All-Star Break (105-80 home loss to Toronto), they've won three straight, although things were a little closer than expected last night at home vs. Orlando as they won only 95-88 laying double digits.  Now having to turn around in the second night of back to backs and lay points in another division matchup can be tricky.  I realize that Miami is without rest as well (lost last night in New Orleans) and has struggled to cover the spread at home this year. But this is a good value taking points.

The Heat definitely have their issues.  Soon after everyone was touting them for bringing in PG Goran Dragic, we learned that Chris Bosh would be out for the remainder of the season due to blood clots discovered on his lung.  The teams ranks 28th in points per game, last in rebounds (despite Hassan Whiteside's presence) and 28th in assists. They are also just 10-16 SU and 9-17 ATS at home.  But what's keeping them afloat is a defense that's allowing just 96.8 PPG, 4th best in the entire league.   Last night saw them really let one slip away as New Orleans scored 31 pts in the fourth quarter (remember, no Anthony Davis).  Previously, Miami was 23-3 SU when leading after three quarters.  I think they'll be the more motivated side tonight.

Going back to the end of last year, Atlanta has actually won four in a row over the Heat, including a pair of victories this season by an average of 10.5 PPG.  I'm just not so sure that I can trust them in this spot.  Eventually, they are due to start giving some back at the betting window as a 67% ATS record is incredibly difficult to sustain.  Miami, meanwhile, is likely to start turning things around at home and I actually like this upcoming stretch of games for them despite the recent subpar play of both Dragic and Dwyane Wade.   10* Miami

10* Syracuse (7:00 ET):  You can't say that the 'Cuse isn't playing hard even in the wake of a postseason ban as they're coming off an outright win at Notre Dame earlier this week and have also beaten Louisville this month.  They also very nearly upset Duke at the Carrier Dome as well, losing 80-72 and just missing the cover as 7.5-pt dogs back on Valentine's Day.  Despite a subpar game there from big man Rakeem Christmas, the Orange actually had the halftime lead before wilting late.  While this time the game is at Cameron Indoor and Duke has won eight in a row, Coach K's team is certainly not infallible as you can look to this week's close call at Virginia Tech for further evidence of that.  Take the points.

Duke has been on quite the roll lately and its offensive efficiency over the L8 games rates as the best in the entire country.  But be wary as two of the Blue Devils' last three victories have come in overtime, including Wednesday against a poor Virginia Tech squad.  Yes, that game was in Blacksburg, but the Hokies are just 2-13 SU in ACC play and were able to stay in the game despite Duke shooting nearly 60 percent! That right there should tell you that the Blue Devils have their issues defensively and sure enough only one of their previous five opponents didn't get to at least 70 pts in regulation.  That lack of defense obviously makes it difficult to cover spreads as high as thie one.  For the year, Duke is just 12-13 ATS when favored, including a 6-6 mark at -12 or higher.

Syracuse was once 13-4 SU, but once news of the self-imposed tourney ban hit, you knew the team was likely to slide.  They're just 5-6 SU L11 games, but with one exception (a head-scratching loss to Clemson), the Orange have remained competitive throughout.  Four of their last five defeats have been by single digits and considering this will be their fourth ranked opponent in the last five games, that's not too bad.  This will be the most points a Jim Boeheim coached team has gotten from the linesmakers in any game in the last decade.  10* Syracuse

8* Marshall (7:00 ET):  I'm sticking w/ C-USA for the second game of this three-game report and a similar mentality as this will be Marshall's final home game of the season.  These are two teams near the bottom of the league, but the Thundering Herd are clearly in better shape as they come off an 87-69 win (-5) over FIU on Thursday right here in Huntington. Meanwhile, FAU has now dropped 10 in a row and they're in last place in the standings w/ only one conference win all season to their credit. Ironically, that one win came at the expense of Marshall, back on January 17th, so revenge will be in the air tonight for the Thundering Herd.  Lay the points.

Marshall is a terrible road team, but a respectable 9-7 SU here at home.  They've won five straight at the Henderson Center, including victories over both UTEP and Western Kentucky, who are near the top of the C-USA standings.  Thursday's win not only clinched a spot in the postseason tournament for the Thundering Herd (more on that in a sec), but it also avenged an earlier season defeat, something that again they are looking to do here.  All the motivation for this matchup lies w/ the home team, who still can move up in the standings and improve its seeding for the conference tournament. 

Meanwhile, it's all over but the shouting for Florida Atlantic.  Conference USA is a 14-team league, but only 12 teams make the postseason tournament.  One of the two that won't is Southern Miss because of a self-imposed ban.  The other will be FAU by virtue of the fact the only team they even have a mathematical chance of catching is Southern Miss.  The Owls got Marshall in the second of two road games in three nights for the first meeting, a situation that they themselves are now in and away from home FAU is averaging just 57.9 points per game. I'd be shocked if the road team was even the least bit competitive here, while the home side should be supremely motivated.  8* Marshall

8* North Texas (5:30 ET):  The Mean Green are on quite the run here, aren't they? Five consecutive outright wins isn't something that should be taken lightly, though it should be pointed out that they weren't getting more than four points from the linesmakers in any of those contests. Today marks the final home game of the year, which means its time to honor the seniors, and that's a motivational tool one simply has to factor into their handicapping down the stretch.  While only one of those five victories came against the top of Conference USA, it's tough not to like UNT as they host Old Dominion Saturday and are getting points. 

Even after three consecutive wins and covers, ODU is probably not going to catch conference leader Louisiana Tech.  But they are fighting for seeding in the C-USA Tournament and a second place finish is certainly a possibility.  That being said, this game is NOT in Norfolk where the Colonials have yet to drop a game all season.  They're just 4-5 SU in "true" road games and that's after beating bottom-feeder Rice on Thursday.  So often, we see College Basketball teams struggle when having to play a second road game in three nights (common in leagues such as C-USA & the Pac 12) and that's what I think we'll see here w/ Old Dominion.

When these teams met earlier this year, it was ODU that won, 61-50, but North Texas that left w/ the cash as 14-point dogs.  Clearly, the Mean Green were going to get more respect from the linesmakers in this rematch w/ the game taking place on their home floor and because of the recent run.  North Texas hasn't suffered a regulation loss at home since January 4th.  Both teams shot very poorly in that first matchup, but UNT killed themselves by missing 13 of 16 from behind the three-point arc.  Considering that ODU averages just 62.4 points per game away from home, even a reasonable offensive performance from the home team should keep them in the money here.  Look for the Mean Green to continue this run of theirs.  8* North Texas

8* Portland (10:35 ET):  This is a tough spot for Oklahoma City, who is coming off an overtime loss Thursday in Phoenix.  I had the Suns in that one, as 5.5-point underdogs, and will go against the Thunder here as well.  We all saw how good Portland was at home Wednesday night in another nationally televised affair when they took care of San Antonio, winning by a final score of 111-95 as just 2.5-point favorites.  I'm clearly not as high on OKC's prospects as some others as they're still just a borderline top 10 team in my book while the Blazers have been much more consistent all season, particularly here at the Moda Center where they are 24-6 SU for the season.  With a small number, I'll call for them to cover the spread.

Portland currently owns a six-game lead over Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division. While few still even pay attention to the divisions in the NBA, they still do carry some importance as a first place finish guarantees you a top four seed in the playoffs.  A win here would be huge for the Blazers as it would guarantee a win in the season series w/ the Thunder, which has already seen the first two games go the way of Portland.   Kevin Durant didn't play in either of those games and obviously won't here either.  As I mentioned in yday's analysis, I don't care what anyone wants to say about Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are absolutely worse off w/ Durant out of the lineup.  Also, to update the record from yday, the team is now just 13-18 SU on the road this season, giving up over 101 points per game.

Playing in the second game of back to backs hasn't really hurt Oklahoma City thus far (eight straight wins), but I can't imagine that they've had a tougher situation than they one they are in tonight, coming off an OT loss and facing one of the best home teams in the entire NBA. Plus, no team has won nine in a row when unrested the L2 seasons.  LaMarcus Aldridge didn't even play that well in the win over San Antonio Weds night, finishing w/ just 11 pts.  Both he and Damian Lillard have played well in the past vs. OKC w/ Aldridge averaging 26.6 PPG the L8 home matchups and Lillard going for 40 the last time the two teams played.  Lillard's counterpart Westbrook I thought took WAY too many shots last night, an ominous sign of things to come. 8* Portland

10* Cleveland State (10:00 ET):   This is a huge game for Cleveland State and a huge game in the Horizon League.  The Vikings trail Valparaiso by one game going into this, the regular season finale for both.  The number one seed in the impending Conference Tournament is on the line here and a win by the favorite (CSU), coupled w/ a Green Bay win over Oakland Sat night would hand the Vikings the top spot, which means they would get to host the Conference Tourney. (If Oakland wins, can also clinch top spot if they finish with the higher RPI). Getting a top two seed in the Horizon is huge because it means a double bye into the semifinals.  I will be attending this game and plan on cheering the home team to a win and cover.  Lay the points. 

The reason that Cleveland State still has a chance to win/share the Horizon League regular season championship is that Valpo lost Weds night at Detroit, 63-60 as 4.5-pt road favorites.  That game was decided on three made free throws in the final second & Valpo shot the ball poorly overall.  It was only the fifth loss of the season for the Crusaders, but the fifth time in the last seven games that they failed to cover.  They've only been an underdog in two games all year, but lost both times.  Meanwhile, Cleveland State is also off an outright loss, Sunday to Milwaukee as four-point favorites by a score of 66-60.  It was a dreadful spot for Gary Waters' Vikings as it was their second road game in three days and they were coming off a dramatic overtime win against Green Bay where their top three players all logged 43+ minutes.  Still though, I think that it's a huge edge for the home team having been off since Sunday while Valpo now finds itself playing a second road game in three nights.

While I have to say Cleveland State laying this many points is a tad bit surprising, what's encouraging is the fact the did cover against Valparaiso on the road.  The Crusaders have only one home loss all year (New Mexico) and the Vikings were very close to making it two as they largely outplayed them.  This Cleveland State team went 3-0 ATS vs. Louisville, Virginia & VCU earlier this year and you shouldn't be fooled by the record as seven of their losses have come by six points or less.  10* Cleveland State.

10* Chicago (8:05 ET):  Typically, when a team with as poor a win percentage as Minnesota wins this time of the year, you'll want to play against them the next time out.  That's what I'll be doing here as I think that the 13-43 T'wolves are getting far too much respect tonight in Chicago.  Yes, the Bulls must get over the loss of Derrick Rose, but shouldn't they be used to it by now?  They were in a bad spot Wednesday having to take the court less than 24 hours after learning the news that Rose's season would be over & it showed w/ a 98-86 outright (-7) home loss to Charlotte.  Needless to say, I expect a far different result this go around.

Minnesota surprisingly has had a pretty good month, winning five of its last eight straight up, but all but one of those victories came at home.  On the road, they are just 5-23 SU for the season and giving up a horrible 109.7 points per game.  The Bulls have of course had their fair share of issues covering the spread at home the L3 seasons, but they did win in Minnesota earlier in the year (only by one point).  But still, they were favored in that game, meaning the line should definitely be higher here.  My own personal power rankings suggest we should be working w/ a double-digit number here.

Off a win this year, Minnesota is just 2-10 SU and 4-7-1 ATS.  Off a double digit win, they are 0-3 ATS.  They hooked up w/ a slumping Washington team Wednesday night and beat the Wizards w/ shocking ease, 97-77, a game that saw Kevin Garnett make an emotional return to the Twin Cities.  It will be difficult for them to duplicate that emotion out on the road, nor will they likely enjoy the same massive edge in free throw attempts here that they did vs. the Wizards. Meanwhile, Chicago had its worst three-point shooting night of the year Wednesday, so they can only go up here.  The Bulls are averaging 103 points per game here at the United Center and I'll call for a big-time offensive effort in what almost amounts to a "must-win" for them.  10* Chicago

10* Under Warriors/Raptors (7:35 ET): This is a tough spot for Golden State following last night's loss in Cleveland.  After the Warriors scored 33 points in the first quarter of that game, the Cavs put the clamps down defensively, holding them to just 23, 22 and 21 pts respectively over the final three quarters.  The game ended up staying Under the total and for GSW that was the sixth time in the last seven games where the Under cashed. They obviously face some of the highest O/U lines in the league, consistently, and that's the case again tonight as they visit Toronto.  The Raptors have also been going Under in most of their games lately (five out of last six), so look for this one to be lower-scoring than expected. Take the Under.

Toronto actually averages more points per game on the road than they do at home.  That being said, they come off three straight road games (all losses) where they averaged less than 90 PPG.  Save for the Houston game, where they were just 32.5% from the field, they didn't really shoot the ball that poorly.  Three-point shooting has bit a bit of an issue (26.9 percent) during the losing streak as has PG Kyle Lowry (just 14.7 PPG).  But the fourth quarter has been where the real problem lies as the Raptors are shooting just 32.3% over the final 12 minutes in the L3 games while their L2 opponents (Pelicans, Mavs) combined to shoot over 64%.  All-time though, Raptors' home games w/ a total of 210+ are 35-14 Under.

Toronto's defense will be the key in this matchup as they are much better on that end of the floor at home.  They're holding teams to a very respectable 96.9 PPG here at the Air Canada Centre and of interest is that Golden State averages about eight points per game less on the road than they do at home.  The Warriors have even failed to break 100 pts in four of the last six games.   They are likely to close as the underdog for this game, which is interesting because of a 6-1 Under mark when taking points this season.  The first matchup between these teams flew Over the total, but w/ Toronto struggling and Golden State in the second game of a back to back, I expect a different story to unfold this time around. 10* Under Warriors/Raptors

10* Phoenix (10:35 ET):  Well, it did appear as if Oklahoma City was finally taking off.  They've won and covered each of their last seven games, and all but one of those victories has come by a double digit margin.  But just as the team was playing its best ball of the season, Kevin Durant injured his foot again and surgery will have him out for the next 1-2 weeks.  Though Russell Westbrook has done an admirable job carrying the Thunder this season, I feel this is a tricky spot laying points on the road to a team they trailed in the standings just a week ago. Phoenix just blew out Denver last night, on the road, and should be able to hang here.

The Thunder are 2-0 vs. the Suns this year, but both of those games were played in Oklahoma City.  OKC's two closest games during this current win streak were against Denver and Charlotte, two inferior teams, and I bring this up because both of those were road games.  Remember that this Thunder team still sports a losing road record (13-17 SU) for the season.  That has a lot to do w/ the fact they allow 101.3 points per game away from home.  Phoenix can definitely put the ball in the basket here at the U.S. Airways Center (107.4 PPG) and they come in as the league's third highest scoring team overall.  I don't care how anyone wants to tout Westbrook's exploits, the Thunder are going to miss Durant these next several games.

Phoenix is 9-2 ATS this season when off a win by 10 or more points.  Normally, I might be concerned about the fact that Oklahoma City leads the league in rebounds per game, but just last night the Suns set a NBA season high, pulling down 65 boards in the 110-96 win at Denver.  Yes, the Nuggets are a bad team dealing w/ a ton of injuries right now, but Phoenix desperately needed a win after the Dragic trade.  They'd dropped five in a row previously, but of particular interest here is the fact that four of those had been by five points or less. My own personal power ratings say that the Suns should still be favored in this one so I'll take the plus the points.  10* Phoenix

8* BYU (10:00 ET):  With four straight wins and covers, BYU is a hot team right now, but they absolutely cannot afford to get caught looking ahead to Saturday's rematch with Gonzaga.  That's because the Cougars are firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble and a loss here to Portland might very well burst their entire season.  Fortunately, they're laying just a short number and the host Pilots have dropped B2B games, including one to Pacific last Saturday in overtime where they were four-point favorites. Portland is the one more likely to get caught looking ahead towards the weekend as they have Senior Night against San Diego. Lay the points here.

All four of BYU's wins during the current win streak have been of the dominant variety. The closest margin of victory they had was last Thursday's 75-62 decision over San Diego, which was the final game of the year in Provo.  Tyler Haws again led the way, this time scoring 28 points as he has a good chance of breaking Jimmer Fredette's school record for scoring.  As a team, BYU is averaging a whopping 87.3 points per game on the road, which is incredibly impressive.  Overall, they are the top scoring team in the country and also third in assists.  I just don't see how a Portland squad w/ a pretty pedestrian offense is going to be able to keep up. 

These teams first met right before the New Year and the Cougars scored 97 points, yet failed to cover the spread as 10.5-point favorites.  The 88 pts scored in that game by Portland still are their season high.  They haven't scored 80 or more in a game since.  With BYU having last played exactly one week ago and Portland having been involved in an overtime game Saturday, you do have to give a slight situational edge to the road team right off the bat.  Then there is the motivation of trying to garner a NCAA Tournament berth as well for the Cougars, who are a solid 7-3 ATS on the road this season.   Simply put, they are the much better team that has everything to play for.  8* BYU

10* Temple (7:00 ET):  At first glance, you might be a bit leery of laying this many points w/ a Temple squad coming off B2B ugly losses.  But don't be.  At 12-2 straight up in Philly, they have a solid homecourt advantage and the losses they are coming off both came on the road. Also, they have an ideal opponent on Thursday.  Houston has not only lost five straight, but they're 1-13 SU in conference play and in last place in the AAC.  Now w/out the services of junior PG LJ Rose, the Cougars' season is for all intents and purposes over.  This game should turn into a real blowout pretty quickly.  Lay the points.

Before losing at both SMU and Tulsa (two top teams in the American, mind you), Temple had actually won seven in a row.  All but one of those victories came by a double digit margin, so it's not like the Owls are unaccustomed to winning by big margins.  While their offense could use some work, they are holding visiting teams to just 57.5 points per game here at the Liacouras Center this season.  At 19-9 overall, and 10-5 in conference (tied for 3rd place in AAC), this is a team firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble and in fact ESPN's Joe Lunardi currently has them as a part of the dreaded "last four in" category.  They certainly can't afford a loss here and a blowout win would really go a long way.

  Meanwhile, in case you couldn't tell by looking at their record, Houston is in a really bad way right now.  After three straight close losses, two on the road and the other at home vs. SMU, by a combined 10 points, they lost by 10 at home to Cincinnati Saturday and lost their starting point guard in the process.  Rose had just scored 25 pts in the previous game and his assist to turnover ratio was a very solid 2:1 for the season.  Temple really can't play any worse than they did Sunday at Tulsa (19-4 second half run was the difference) and while neither of these teams shoots the ball well, the Owls big-time edge in rebounding looms large.  This is a classic case of a team w/ everything to lose taking on another w/ nothing to gain.  10* Temple

8* Utah (9:05 ET):  I admit that this seems like a lot of points to lay w/ the Jazz, but consider the opponent is the Lakers, who are off a SU win.  That's actually a negative for the road team as far as I'm concerned as bad teams are typically unable to sustain any kind of momentum this time of year.  Consider that Sunday night's 118-111 win over Boston was just the Lakers' third over the past 20 games, a stretch that has seen them go 5-13-2 against the spread. Meanwhile, Utah is playing its best basketball of the season as they've won four of five, the only loss coming by five points to Dallas.  Last month saw the Jazz barely cover an eight-point spread here at home vs. LA (won by nine) and I think this one has all the makings of a bigger blowout.

Utah has actually been a competitive team for a longer stretch than you might think.  They've gone .500 straight up over the L30 games and that has a lot to do w/ the fact they've allowed just 93.4 PPG during that span.  Only three teams have been better on that end of the floor.  They've held four of their last five opponents below 90 points.  If they can do that here to the Lakers, then they should be in very good shape considering their opponents are the worst defensive team in the entire league at 106.4 PPG and over the L5 they've been even worse (110.6 PPG allowed). It certainly doesn't help that they've barely averaged 40 percent shooting over their L11 road games, all losses, either.

Prior to beating the undermanned Celtics on Sunday, the Lakers had failed to cover five in a row. Three of those losses were by double digits.  The win Sunday came in overtime, and was owed in large part to the bench scoring 84 points, 25 of those coming from Jeremy Lin.  I don't see a repeat of that taking place here tonight against the defensively-minded Jazz.  The Lakers starting five contributed only 34 points TOTAL in an overtime game, mind you. This team's last win in regulation came all the way back on January 9th!  Meanwhile, Utah has just beaten both Portland and San Antonio here at home, so this drop in class should be a walk in the park.  8* Utah